WorldWideScience

Sample records for varying climatic conditions

  1. Phytoremdiation Species And Their Modification Under By Weed Varying Climatic Condition A Changing Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Singh

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The major reasons for environmental contamination are population explosion increase in industrial and other urban activities. One of the consequent effect of these activities is heavy metal pollution. It is one of the serious issue to be discussed by the scientists and academicians that how to solve this problem to protect the environment. As heavy metals are non-biodegradable so they require effective cleanup technology. Most of the traditional methods such as excavation solidification and burial are very costly or they simply involve the isolation of the metals from contaminated sites. Among different technologies phytoremediation is best approach for removing metal contamination from environment. It involves plants to remove detoxify or immobilize metals from environment. Weed plants are found to be play very important role in metal remediation. They get affected by climatic variation which is also a consequent effect of environmental pollution. The physiology of plants as well as physiochemical properties of soil gets affected by varying climatic condition. Therefore the present review gives the information on metal remediation processes and how these process particularly phytoremediation by weed plants get affected by climatic changes.

  2. Variability of the morphometric features of Calliphora vicina (Diptera, Calliphoridae under the varying and constant micro-climatic condi-tions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Faly

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Variability of the main morphometric features of imago flies Calliphora vicina R.-D. (Diptera, Calliphoridae of two samples was studied. First sample consists of individuals caught in the wild (park ecosystems of Dnipropetrovsk, the second one – specimens cultured in the laboratory under the constant temperature and humidity. Possible using of C. vicina R.-D. as a bioindicator of anthropogenic factors is analysed. Environmental factors may act as the stimulators of adaptive changes in physiological functions, as the constraints that cause impossibility of the existence of certain species in particular conditions, and as modifiers that determine the morpho- anatomical and physiological changes in organisms. The most significant differences between studied samples were found for the width (“laboratory” individuals are characterized by larger head size and for the length of limbs segments. The fluctuating range of the head width in specimens collected in the wild is much wider, due to the heterogeneity of the micro-climatic conditions of the larvae development and trophic resources. Maximal negative asymmetry of the head width is observed in individuals C. vicina R.-D. of the “natural” sample as compared with “laboratory” individuals. Among imagoes caught in the wild the individuals with a relatively wide head are dominated, as evidenced by the large positive value of kurtosis. At the same time, the distribution of values in “laboratory” individuals is almost normal. In adults bred in the laboratory the shortening of segments of the leg pair I is observed in comparison with the individuals of “natural” sample. Similar results were recorded for other insect groups cultivated in a laboratory. For most other linear measurements of the C. vicina R.-D. body the differences between samples are not registered. Ephemeral existence of the substrate of blow flies leads to higher prevailing evolutionary adaptation of species to varying

  3. Successful transportation of human corneal endothelial tissues without cool preservation in varying Indian tropical climatic conditions and in vitro cell expansion using a novel polymer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Srinivas K; Sudhakar, John; Parikumar, Periyasamy; Natarajan, Sundaram; Insaan, Aditya; Yoshioka, Hiroshi; Mori, Yuichi; Tsukahara, Shigeo; Baskar, Subramani; Manjunath, Sadananda Rao; Senthilkumar, Rajappa; Thamaraikannan, Paramasivam; Srinivasan, Thangavelu; Preethy, Senthilkumar; Abraham, Samuel J K

    2014-02-01

    Though the transplantation of human corneal endothelial tissue (CET) separated from cadaver cornea is in practice, its transportation has not been reported. We report the successful transportation of CET in varying Indian climatic conditions without cool preservation and the in vitro expansion of Human Corneal Endothelial Precursor Cells (HCEPCs) using a novel Thermo-reversible gelation polymer (TGP). CET from cadaver corneas (n = 67), unsuitable for transplantation, were used. In phase I, CET was transported in Basal Culture Medium (Group I) and TGP (Group II) and in Phase II, in TGP cocktail alone, from three hospitals 250-2500 km away, to a central laboratory. The transportation time ranged from 6 h to 72 h and the outdoor temperature between 20°C and 41°C. On arrival, CET were processed, cells were expanded upto 30 days in basal culture medium (Group A) and TGP scaffold (Group B). Cell viability and morphology were documented and Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) characterization undertaken. In Phase I, TGP yielded more viable cells (0.11 × 10(6) cells) than Group I (0.04 × 10(6) cells). In Phase II, the average cell count was 5.44 × 10(4) cells. During expansion, viability of HCEPCs spheres in TGP was maintained for a longer duration. The cells from both the groups tested positive for B-3 tubulin and negative for cytokeratins K3 and K12, thereby proving them to be HCEPCs. TGP preserves the CET during transportation without cool preservation and supports in vitro expansion, with a higher yield of HCEPCs, similar to that reported in clinical studies.

  4. Successful transportation of human corneal endothelial tissues without cool preservation in varying Indian tropical climatic conditions and in vitro cell expansion using a novel polymer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srinivas K Rao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Though the transplantation of human corneal endothelial tissue (CET separated from cadaver cornea is in practice, its transportation has not been reported. We report the successful transportation of CET in varying Indian climatic conditions without cool preservation and the in vitro expansion of Human Corneal Endothelial Precursor Cells (HCEPCs using a novel Thermo-reversible gelation polymer (TGP. Materials and Methods: CET from cadaver corneas (n = 67, unsuitable for transplantation, were used. In phase I, CET was transported in Basal Culture Medium (Group I and TGP (Group II and in Phase II, in TGP cocktail alone, from three hospitals 250-2500 km away, to a central laboratory. The transportation time ranged from 6 h to 72 h and the outdoor temperature between 20°C and 41°C. On arrival, CET were processed, cells were expanded upto 30 days in basal culture medium (Group A and TGP scaffold (Group B. Cell viability and morphology were documented and Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR characterization undertaken. Results: In Phase I, TGP yielded more viable cells (0.11 × 10 6 cells than Group I (0.04 × 10 6 cells. In Phase II, the average cell count was 5.44 × 10 4 cells. During expansion, viability of HCEPCs spheres in TGP was maintained for a longer duration. The cells from both the groups tested positive for B-3 tubulin and negative for cytokeratins K3 and K12, thereby proving them to be HCEPCs. Conclusion: TGP preserves the CET during transportation without cool preservation and supports in vitro expansion, with a higher yield of HCEPCs, similar to that reported in clinical studies.

  5. Assessing and monitoring the effects of filter material amendments on the biophysicochemical properties during composting of solid winery waste under open field and varying climatic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mtimkulu, Y; Meyer, A H; Mulidzi, A R; Shange, P L; Nchu, F

    2017-01-01

    Waste management in winery and distillery industries faces numerous disposal challenges as large volumes of both liquid and solid waste by-products are generated yearly during cellar practices. Composting has been suggested as a feasible option to beneficiate solid organic waste. This incentivized the quest for efficient composting protocols to be put in place. The objective of this study was to experiment with different composting strategies for spent winery solid waste. Compost materials consisting of chopped pruning grape stalks, skins, seed and spent wine filter material consisting of a mixture of organic and inorganic expend ingredients were mixed in compost heaps. The filter material component varied (in percentage) among five treatments: T1 (40%) lined, T2 (20%) lined, T3 (0%) lined, T4 (40%) ground material, lined and T5 (40%) unlined. Composting was allowed to proceed under open field conditions over 12months, from autumn to summer. Indicators such as temperature, moisture, enzyme activities, microbial counts, pH, and C/N ratio, were recorded. Generally, season (df=3, 16, Pwinery solid waste. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Panorama 2011: Refining: varying conditions by region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, C.

    2011-01-01

    The economic crisis has further weakened a sector that was already facing difficulties, if we look beyond the flush period (2005-2008) when, buoyed by strong demand, margins remained high and refiners could generate profits while maintaining a healthy level of activity. Falling demand and increased over-capacity in some regions - the immediate consequences of the deteriorating economic conditions over the past two years - have led to declining margins and to financial accounts being in the red. The adoption of increasingly stringent emissions standards and product specifications, burdensome regulatory requirements for refineries (for combating local pollution and reducing greenhouse gas emissions), stiffer competition from new fuels: all of these structural factors are weakening the sector, especially in industrialized nations with their more rigorous regulatory compliance. In this generally gloomy climate, numerous new projects are still being envisaged - although many have recently been postponed and tend to be concentrated in developing countries. (author)

  7. Experimental effects of climate messages vary geographically

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Baobao; van der Linden, Sander; Mildenberger, Matto; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Howe, Peter D.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2018-05-01

    Social science scholars routinely evaluate the efficacy of diverse climate frames using local convenience or nationally representative samples1-5. For example, previous research has focused on communicating the scientific consensus on climate change, which has been identified as a `gateway' cognition to other key beliefs about the issue6-9. Importantly, although these efforts reveal average public responsiveness to particular climate frames, they do not describe variation in message effectiveness at the spatial and political scales relevant for climate policymaking. Here we use a small-area estimation method to map geographical variation in public responsiveness to information about the scientific consensus as part of a large-scale randomized national experiment (n = 6,301). Our survey experiment finds that, on average, public perception of the consensus increases by 16 percentage points after message exposure. However, substantial spatial variation exists across the United States at state and local scales. Crucially, responsiveness is highest in more conservative parts of the country, leading to national convergence in perceptions of the climate science consensus across diverse political geographies. These findings not only advance a geographical understanding of how the public engages with information about scientific agreement, but will also prove useful for policymakers, practitioners and scientists engaged in climate change mitigation and adaptation.

  8. Atmospheric particle formation in spatially and temporally varying conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lauros, J.

    2011-07-01

    Atmospheric particles affect the radiation balance of the Earth and thus the climate. New particle formation from nucleation has been observed in diverse atmospheric conditions but the actual formation path is still unknown. The prevailing conditions can be exploited to evaluate proposed formation mechanisms. This study aims to improve our understanding of new particle formation from the view of atmospheric conditions. The role of atmospheric conditions on particle formation was studied by atmospheric measurements, theoretical model simulations and simulations based on observations. Two separate column models were further developed for aerosol and chemical simulations. Model simulations allowed us to expand the study from local conditions to varying conditions in the atmospheric boundary layer, while the long-term measurements described especially characteristic mean conditions associated with new particle formation. The observations show statistically significant difference in meteorological and back-ground aerosol conditions between observed event and non-event days. New particle formation above boreal forest is associated with strong convective activity, low humidity and low condensation sink. The probability of a particle formation event is predicted by an equation formulated for upper boundary layer conditions. The model simulations call into question if kinetic sulphuric acid induced nucleation is the primary particle formation mechanism in the presence of organic vapours. Simultaneously the simulations show that ignoring spatial and temporal variation in new particle formation studies may lead to faulty conclusions. On the other hand, the theoretical simulations indicate that short-scale variations in temperature and humidity unlikely have a significant effect on mean binary water sulphuric acid nucleation rate. The study emphasizes the significance of mixing and fluxes in particle formation studies, especially in the atmospheric boundary layer. The further

  9. Ocean climate and seal condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crocker Daniel E

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The condition of many marine mammals varies with fluctuations in productivity and food supply in the ocean basin where they forage. Prey is impacted by physical environmental variables such as cyclic warming trends. The weaning weight of northern elephant seal pups, Mirounga angustirostris, being closely linked to maternal condition, indirectly reflects prey availability and foraging success of pregnant females in deep waters of the northeastern Pacific. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of ocean climate on foraging success in this deep-diving marine mammal over the course of three decades, using cohort weaning weight as the principal metric of successful resource accrual. Results The mean annual weaning weight of pups declined from 1975 to the late 1990s, a period characterized by a large-scale, basin-wide warm decadal regime that included multiple strong or long-duration El Niños; and increased with a return to a cool decadal regime from about 1999 to 2004. Increased foraging effort and decreased mass gain of adult females, indicative of reduced foraging success and nutritional stress, were associated with high ocean temperatures. Conclusion Despite ranging widely and foraging deeply in cold waters beyond coastal thermoclines in the northeastern Pacific, elephant seals are impacted significantly by ocean thermal dynamics. Ocean warming redistributes prey decreasing foraging success of females, which in turn leads to lower weaning mass of pups. Annual fluctuations in weaning mass, in turn, reflect the foraging success of females during the year prior to giving birth and signals changes in ocean temperature cycles.

  10. Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Challinor, Andrew J; Parkes, Ben; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian

    2015-04-01

    Projections of the response of crop yield to climate change at different spatial scales are known to vary. However, understanding of the causes of systematic differences across scale is limited. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneous cropping intensity is one source of scale dependency. Analysis of observed global data and regional crop modelling demonstrate that areas of high vs. low cropping intensity can have systematically different yields, in both observations and simulations. Analysis of global crop data suggests that heterogeneity in cropping intensity is a likely source of scale dependency for a number of crops across the globe. Further crop modelling and a meta-analysis of projected tropical maize yields are used to assess the implications for climate change assessments. The results show that scale dependency is a potential source of systematic bias. We conclude that spatially comprehensive assessments of climate impacts based on yield alone, without accounting for cropping intensity, are prone to systematic overestimation of climate impacts. The findings therefore suggest a need for greater attention to crop suitability and land use change when assessing the impacts of climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Towards an improved understanding of hillslope runoff as a supply for groundwater recharge: Assessing hillslope runoff under regional deforestation and varying climate conditions in a drainage basin in central coastal California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, K. S.; Beganskas, S.; Fisher, A. T.

    2017-12-01

    We use a hydrologic model to analyze hillslope runoff under a range of climate and land use conditions in the San Lorenzo River Basin (SLRB), central coastal California, including contemporary land use and incremental deforestation. The SLRB is a heavily forested watershed with chronically overdrafted aquifers; in some areas, groundwater levels have been lowered by >50 m in recent decades. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can help mitigate declines in groundwater storage, routing excess surface flows to locations where they can infiltrate. We are especially interested in opportunities for collection of stormwater runoff, particularly where development and other changes in landuse have increased hill slope runoff. To assess hillslope runoff at the subwatershed scale (10-100 ha; 25-250 ac), we apply the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to a high-resolution, digital elevation model and populate the simulation with area- and density-weighted vegetation and soil parameters calculated from high resolution input data. We also develop and apply a catalog of dry, normal, and wet climate scenarios from the historic record (1981-2014). In addition, we simulate conditions ranging from 0 to 100 percent of redwoods harvested (representing the mid-1800s to 1930s logging era) using a historical land use data set to alter soil and vegetation conditions. Results under contemporary land use suggest there are ample opportunities to establish MAR projects during all climate scenarios; hill slope runoff generation is spatially variable and on average exceeds 23,000 ac-ft/yr (3.2 in/yr) during the driest climate scenario. Preliminary results from the deforestation scenarios show notable increases in hillslope runoff with progressive redwood harvesting. Relative to pre-logging conditions, between 1.1 in (dry climates) and 1.5 in (wet climates) more runoff is generated under contemporary conditions, with most of the runoff increase occurring in urban areas. These modeling methods

  12. Sensitivity of ring growth and carbon allocation to climatic variation vary within ponderosa pine trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerhoulas, Lucy P; Kane, Jeffrey M

    2012-01-01

    Most dendrochronological studies focus on cores sampled from standard positions (main stem, breast height), yet vertical gradients in hydraulic constraints and priorities for carbon allocation may contribute to different growth sensitivities with position. Using cores taken from five positions (coarse roots, breast height, base of live crown, mid-crown branch and treetop), we investigated how radial growth sensitivity to climate over the period of 1895-2008 varies by position within 36 large ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa Dougl.) in northern Arizona. The climate parameters investigated were Palmer Drought Severity Index, water year and monsoon precipitation, maximum annual temperature, minimum annual temperature and average annual temperature. For each study tree, we generated Pearson correlation coefficients between ring width indices from each position and six climate parameters. We also investigated whether the number of missing rings differed among positions and bole heights. We found that tree density did not significantly influence climatic sensitivity to any of the climate parameters investigated at any of the sample positions. Results from three types of analyses suggest that climatic sensitivity of tree growth varied with position height: (i) correlations of radial growth and climate variables consistently increased with height; (ii) model strength based on Akaike's information criterion increased with height, where treetop growth consistently had the highest sensitivity and coarse roots the lowest sensitivity to each climatic parameter; and (iii) the correlation between bole ring width indices decreased with distance between positions. We speculate that increased sensitivity to climate at higher positions is related to hydraulic limitation because higher positions experience greater xylem tensions due to gravitational effects that render these positions more sensitive to climatic stresses. The low sensitivity of root growth to all climatic variables

  13. Contact Dynamics of EHL Contacts under Time Varying Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venner, Cornelis H.; Popovici, G.; Wijnant, Ysbrand H.; Dalmaz, G.; Lubrecht, A.A.; Priest, M

    2004-01-01

    By means of numerical simulations of two situations with time varying operating conditions it is shown that the dynamic behaviour of Elasto-Hydrodynamically Lubricated contacts in terms of vibrations can be characterized as: Changes in the mutual approach lead to film thickness changes in the inlet

  14. Vibration condition monitoring of planetary gearbox under varying external load

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartelmus, W.; Zimroz, R. [Wroclaw University of Technology, Wroclaw (Poland)

    2009-01-15

    The paper shows that for condition monitoring of planetary gearboxes it is important to identify the external varying load condition. In the paper, systematic consideration has been taken of the influence of many factors on the vibration signals generated by a system in which a planetary gearbox is included. These considerations give the basis for vibration signal interpretation, development of the means of condition monitoring, and for the scenario of the degradation of the planetary gearbox. Real measured vibration signals obtained in the industrial environment are processed. The signals are recorded during normal operation of the diagnosed objects, namely planetary gearboxes, which are a part of the driving system used in a bucket wheel excavator, used in lignite mines. It has been found that the most important factor of the proper planetary gearbox condition is connected with perturbation of arm rotation, where an arm rotation gives rise to a specific vibration signal whose properties are depicted by a short-time Fourier transform (STFT) and Wigner-Ville distribution presented as a time-frequency map. The paper gives evidence that there are two dominant low-frequency causes that influence vibration signal modulation, i.e. the varying load, which comes from the nature of the bucket wheel digging process, and the arm/carrier rotation. These two causes determine the condition of the planetary gearboxes considered.

  15. Conditional CAPM: Time-varying Betas in the Brazilian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frances Fischberg Blank

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The conditional CAPM is characterized by time-varying market beta. Based on state-space models approach, beta behavior can be modeled as a stochastic process dependent on conditioning variables related to business cycle and estimated using Kalman filter. This paper studies alternative models for portfolios sorted by size and book-to-market ratio in the Brazilian stock market and compares their adjustment to data. Asset pricing tests based on time-series and cross-sectional approaches are also implemented. A random walk process combined with conditioning variables is the preferred model, reducing pricing errors compared to unconditional CAPM, but the errors are still significant. Cross-sectional test show that book-to-market ratio becomes less relevant, but past returns still capture cross-section variation

  16. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    H. Fleisher, David; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    A potato crop multi-model assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low- (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi) and high- (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States.......01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach....

  17. One-dimensional radionuclide transport under time-varying conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gelbard, F.; Olague, N.E.; Longsine, D.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses new analytical and numerical solutions presented for one-dimensional radionuclide transport under time-varying fluid-flow conditions including radioactive decay. The analytical solution assumes that all radionuclides have identical retardation factors, and is limited to instantaneous releases. The numerical solution does not have these limitations, but is tested against the limiting case given for the analytical solution. Reasonable agreement between the two solutions was found. Examples are given for the transport of a three-member radionuclide chain transported over distances and flow rates comparable to those reported for Yucca Mountain, the proposed disposal site for high-level nuclear waste

  18. A thermal model for photovoltaic panels under varying atmospheric conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, S.; Hurley, W.G.

    2010-01-01

    The response of the photovoltaic (PV) panel temperature is dynamic with respect to the changes in the incoming solar radiation. During periods of rapidly changing conditions, a steady state model of the operating temperature cannot be justified because the response time of the PV panel temperature becomes significant due to its large thermal mass. Therefore, it is of interest to determine the thermal response time of the PV panel. Previous attempts to determine the thermal response time have used indoor measurements, controlling the wind flow over the surface of the panel with fans or conducting the experiments in darkness to avoid radiative heat loss effects. In real operating conditions, the effective PV panel temperature is subjected to randomly varying ambient temperature and fluctuating wind speeds and directions; parameters that are not replicated in controlled, indoor experiments. A new thermal model is proposed that incorporates atmospheric conditions; effects of PV panel material composition and mounting structure. Experimental results are presented which verify the thermal behaviour of a photovoltaic panel for low to strong winds.

  19. Bioventing of gasoline-contaminated soil under varied laboratory conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallman, M.; Shewfelt, K.; Lee, H.; Zytner, R.G.

    2002-01-01

    Bioventing is becoming a popular in situ soil remediation technology for the treatment of hydrocarbon-contaminated soil. Bioventing relies on enhancing the growth of indigenous microorganisms, which can mineralize the contaminant in the presence of sufficient nutrients. Although bioventing is currently being used as a remediation technology, there are some important questions that remain to be answered in order to optimize the process. These questions include the optimum soil moisture content, type and amount of nutrients necessary, and the best means of producing these conditions in the field. To address these questions, two distinct phases of experiments were conducted. The first experimental phase was designed to determine the optimum moisture content, C:N ratio and form of nitrogen supply for this soil. Using approximately 200g of contaminated soil in each of a series of sealed respirometers, microbial degradation of gasoline under bioventing conditions was quantified for C:N ratios of 5, 10 and 20:1, using varying mixtures of NH 4 + - and NO 3 - -N. The results of the studies indicated that the optimum soil moisture content was 15 wt%, with a C:N ratio of 10:1, using a 100% ammonium application. Using the results of the first phase, a second phase of laboratory research was initiated. Five mesoscale reactors have been developed to simulate the bioventing process that takes place in the field. These reactors are filled with approximately 4kg of gasoline-contaminated soil. The initial results are favourable. (author)

  20. Estimation of thermal sensation during varied air temperature conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsuura, T; Tabuchi, R; Iwanaga, K; Harada, H; Kikuchi, Y

    1998-03-01

    Seven male students were exposed to four varied air temperature environments: hot (37 degrees C) to neutral (27 degrees C) (HN), neutral to hot (NH), cool (17 degrees C) to neutral (CN), and neutral to cool (NC). The air temperature was maintained at the first condition for 20 min, then was changed to the second condition after 15 min and was held there for 20 min. Each subject wore a T-shirt, briefs, trunks, and socks. Each sat on a chair and was continuously evaluated for thermal sensation, thermal comfort, and air velocity sensation. Some physiological and thermal parameters were also measured every 5 s during the experiment. The correlation between thermal sensation and skin temperature at 15 sites was found to be poor. The subjects felt much warmer during the rising phase of the air temperature (CN, NH) than during the descending phase (HN, NC) at a given mean skin temperature. However, thermal sensation at the same heat flux or at the same value of the difference between skin and air temperature (delta(Tsk - Ta)) was not so different among the four experimental conditions, and the correlation between thermal sensation and heat flux or delta(Tsk - Ta) was fairly good. The multiple regression equation of the thermal sensation (TS) on 15 sites of skin temperature (Tsk; degrees C) was calculated and the coefficient of determination (R*2) was found to be 0.656. Higher coefficients of determination were found in the equations of thermal sensation for the heat flux (H; kcal.m-2.h-1) at the right and left thighs of the subjects and on delta(Tsk - Ta) (degrees C) at 4 sites. They were as follows: TS = 2.04 - 0.016 Hright - 0.036 Hleft; R*2 = 0.717, TS = 1.649 + 0.013 delta(Tsk - Ta)UpperArm - 0.036 delta(Tsk - Ta)Chest - 0.223 delta(Tsk - Ta)Thigh-0.083 delta(Tsk - Ta)LowerLeg; R*2 = 0.752, respectively.

  1. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleisher, David H; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto; Alva, Ashok; Asseng, Senthold; Barreda, Carolina; Bindi, Marco; Boote, Kenneth J; Ferrise, Roberto; Franke, Angelinus C; Govindakrishnan, Panamanna M; Harahagazwe, Dieudonne; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Naresh Kumar, Soora; Merante, Paolo; Nendel, Claas; Olesen, Jorgen E; Parker, Phillip S; Raes, Dirk; Raymundo, Rubi; Ruane, Alex C; Stockle, Claudio; Supit, Iwan; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Wolf, Joost; Woli, Prem

    2017-03-01

    A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be

  2. Quantifying geographic variation in the climatic drivers of midcontinent wetlands with a spatially varying coefficient model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Christian

    2015-01-01

    The wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region and in the Great Plains are notorious for their sensitivity to weather variability. These wetlands have been the focus of considerable attention because of their ecological importance and because of the expected impact of climate change. Few models in the literature, however, take into account spatial variation in the importance of wetland drivers. This is surprising given the importance spatial heterogeneity in geomorphology and climatic conditions have in the region. In this paper, I use spatially-varying coefficients to assess the variation in ecological drivers in a number of ponds observed over a 50-year period (1961-2012). I included the number of ponds observed the year before on a log scale, the log of total precipitation, and mean maximum temperature during the four previous seasons as explanatory variables. I also included a temporal component to capture change in the number of ponds due to anthropogenic disturbance. Overall, fall and spring precipitation were most important in pond abundance in the west, whereas winter and summer precipitation were the most important drivers in the east. The ponds in the east of the survey area were also more dependent on pond abundance during the previous year than those in the west. Spring temperature during the previous season influenced pond abundance; while the temperature during the other seasons had a limited effect. The ponds in the southwestern part of the survey area have been increasing independently of climatic conditions, whereas the ponds in the northeast have been steadily declining. My results underline the importance of accounting the spatial heterogeneity in environmental drivers, when working at large spatial scales. In light of my results, I also argue that assessing the impacts of climate change on wetland abundance in the spring, without more accurate climatic forecasting, will be difficult.

  3. Quantifying geographic variation in the climatic drivers of midcontinent wetlands with a spatially varying coefficient model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Roy

    Full Text Available The wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region and in the Great Plains are notorious for their sensitivity to weather variability. These wetlands have been the focus of considerable attention because of their ecological importance and because of the expected impact of climate change. Few models in the literature, however, take into account spatial variation in the importance of wetland drivers. This is surprising given the importance spatial heterogeneity in geomorphology and climatic conditions have in the region. In this paper, I use spatially-varying coefficients to assess the variation in ecological drivers in a number of ponds observed over a 50-year period (1961-2012. I included the number of ponds observed the year before on a log scale, the log of total precipitation, and mean maximum temperature during the four previous seasons as explanatory variables. I also included a temporal component to capture change in the number of ponds due to anthropogenic disturbance. Overall, fall and spring precipitation were most important in pond abundance in the west, whereas winter and summer precipitation were the most important drivers in the east. The ponds in the east of the survey area were also more dependent on pond abundance during the previous year than those in the west. Spring temperature during the previous season influenced pond abundance; while the temperature during the other seasons had a limited effect. The ponds in the southwestern part of the survey area have been increasing independently of climatic conditions, whereas the ponds in the northeast have been steadily declining. My results underline the importance of accounting the spatial heterogeneity in environmental drivers, when working at large spatial scales. In light of my results, I also argue that assessing the impacts of climate change on wetland abundance in the spring, without more accurate climatic forecasting, will be difficult.

  4. Empirical methods for estimating future climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    Applying the empirical approach permits the derivation of estimates of the future climate that are nearly independent of conclusions based on theoretical (model) estimates. This creates an opportunity to compare these results with those derived from the model simulations of the forthcoming changes in climate, thus increasing confidence in areas of agreement and focusing research attention on areas of disagreements. The premise underlying this approach for predicting anthropogenic climate change is based on associating the conditions of the climatic optimums of the Holocene, Eemian, and Pliocene with corresponding stages of the projected increase of mean global surface air temperature. Provided that certain assumptions are fulfilled in matching the value of the increased mean temperature for a certain epoch with the model-projected change in global mean temperature in the future, the empirical approach suggests that relationships leading to the regional variations in air temperature and other meteorological elements could be deduced and interpreted based on use of empirical data describing climatic conditions for past warm epochs. Considerable care must be taken, of course, in making use of these spatial relationships, especially in accounting for possible large-scale differences that might, in some cases, result from different factors contributing to past climate changes than future changes and, in other cases, might result from the possible influences of changes in orography and geography on regional climatic conditions over time

  5. Thermal shock behaviour of different tungsten grades under varying conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wirtz, Oliver Marius

    2012-07-19

    Thermonuclear fusion power plants are a promising option to ensure the energy supply for future generations, but in many fields of research enormous challenges have to be faced. A major step on the way to the prototype fusion reactor DEMO will be ITER which is build in Cadarache, southern France. One of the most critical issues is the field of in-vessel materials and components, in particular the plasma facing materials (PFM). PFMs that will be used in a device like ITER have to withstand severe environmental conditions in terms of steady state and transient thermal loads as well as high particle fluxes such as hydrogen, helium and neutrons. Candidate wall materials are beryllium, tungsten and carbon based materials like CFC (carbon fibre composite). Tungsten is the most promising material for an application in the divertor region with very severe loading conditions and it will most probably also be used as PFM for DEMO. Hence, this work focuses on the investigation of the thermal shock response of different tungsten grades in order to understand the damage mechanisms and to identify material parameters which influence this behaviour under ITER and DEMO relevant operation conditions. Therefore the microstructure and the mechanical and thermal properties of five industrially manufactured tungsten grades were characterised. All five tungsten grades were exposed to transient thermal events with very high power densities of up to 1.27 GWm{sup -2} at varying base temperatures between RT and 600 C in the electron beam device JUDITH 1. The pulse numbers were limited to a maximum of 1000 in order to avoid immoderate workload on the test facility and to have enough time to cover a wide range of loading conditions. The results of this damage mapping enable to define different damage and cracking thresholds for the investigated tungsten grades and to identify certain material parameters which influence the location of these thresholds and the distinction of the induced

  6. Thermal shock behaviour of different tungsten grades under varying conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wirtz, Oliver Marius

    2012-01-01

    Thermonuclear fusion power plants are a promising option to ensure the energy supply for future generations, but in many fields of research enormous challenges have to be faced. A major step on the way to the prototype fusion reactor DEMO will be ITER which is build in Cadarache, southern France. One of the most critical issues is the field of in-vessel materials and components, in particular the plasma facing materials (PFM). PFMs that will be used in a device like ITER have to withstand severe environmental conditions in terms of steady state and transient thermal loads as well as high particle fluxes such as hydrogen, helium and neutrons. Candidate wall materials are beryllium, tungsten and carbon based materials like CFC (carbon fibre composite). Tungsten is the most promising material for an application in the divertor region with very severe loading conditions and it will most probably also be used as PFM for DEMO. Hence, this work focuses on the investigation of the thermal shock response of different tungsten grades in order to understand the damage mechanisms and to identify material parameters which influence this behaviour under ITER and DEMO relevant operation conditions. Therefore the microstructure and the mechanical and thermal properties of five industrially manufactured tungsten grades were characterised. All five tungsten grades were exposed to transient thermal events with very high power densities of up to 1.27 GWm -2 at varying base temperatures between RT and 600 C in the electron beam device JUDITH 1. The pulse numbers were limited to a maximum of 1000 in order to avoid immoderate workload on the test facility and to have enough time to cover a wide range of loading conditions. The results of this damage mapping enable to define different damage and cracking thresholds for the investigated tungsten grades and to identify certain material parameters which influence the location of these thresholds and the distinction of the induced damages

  7. Climatic growing conditions of Jatropha curcas L.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maes, W.H.; Achten, W.M.J.; Muys, B. [Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, Celestijnenlaan 200 E Box 2411, BE-3001 Leuven (Belgium); Trabucco, A. [Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, Celestijnenlaan 200 E Box 2411, BE-3001 Leuven (Belgium); International Water Management Institute (IWMI), P.O. Box 2075, Colombo (Sri Lanka)

    2009-10-15

    The massive investment in new jatropha plantations worldwide is not sufficiently based on a profound scientific knowledge of its ecology. In this article, we define the climatic conditions in its area of natural distribution by combining the locations of herbarium specimens with corresponding climatic information, and compare these conditions with those in 83 jatropha plantations worldwide. Most specimens (87%) were found in tropical savannah and monsoon climates (A{sub m}, A{sub w}) and in temperate climates without dry season and with hot summer (C{sub fa}), while very few were found in semi-arid (B{sub S}) and none in arid climates (B{sub W}). Ninety-five percent of the specimens grew in areas with a mean annual rainfall above 944 mm year{sup -1} and an average minimum temperature of the coldest month (T{sub min}) above 10.5 C. The mean annual temperature range was 19.3-27.2 C. The climatic conditions at the plantations were different from those of the natural distribution specimens for all studied climatic variables, except average maximum temperature in the warmest month. Roughly 40% of the plantations were situated in regions with a drier climate than in 95% of the area of the herbarium specimens, and 28% of the plantations were situated in areas with T{sub min} below 10.5 C. The observed precipitation preferences indicate that jatropha is not common in regions with arid and semi-arid climates. Plantations in arid and semi-arid areas hold the risk of low productivity or irrigation requirement. Plantations in regions with frost risk hold the risk of damage due to frost. (author)

  8. Understanding and simulating vibrations of plain bridge cables under varying meteorological conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matteoni, Giulia

    amplitude peak to peak amplitudes, occurred. This latter behaviour was likely to be associated to dry inclined galloping. Passive dynamic wind tunnel tests were finally undertaken in presence of rain, using the same cable model as adopted in the dry state. The tests served to improve the current......The dissertation investigates the phenomenon of wind induced vibration of bridge cables under varying meteorological conditions. A twin research approach is adopted, where wind tunnel investigation of full-scale bridge cable section models is paralleled with theoretical modelling. A literature......-scale monitoring, wind tunnel testing and theoretical modelling. An extensive wind tunnel test campaign was then undertaken in order to further understand the onset conditions and characteristics of instability in the different climatic conditions described in the literature. Tests were separated into two...

  9. Climate conditions in bedded confinement buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Confinement buildings are utilized for finishing cattle to allow more efficient collection of animal waste and to buffer animals against adverse climatic conditions. Environmental data were obtained from a 29 m wide x 318 m long bedded confinement building with the long axis oriented east to west. T...

  10. Design of Multijunction Photovoltaic Cells Optimized for Varied Atmospheric Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Band gap engineering provides an opportunity to not only provide higher overall conversion efficiencies of the reference AM1.5 spectra but also customize PV device design for specific geographic locations and microenvironments based on atmospheric conditions characteristic to that particular location. Indium gallium nitride and other PV materials offer the opportunity for limited bandgap engineering to match spectra. The effects of atmospheric conditions such as aerosols, cloud cover, water vapor, and air mass have been shown to cause variations in spectral radiance that alters PV system performance due to both overrating and underrating. Designing PV devices optimized for spectral radiance of a particular region can result in improved PV system performance. This paper presents a new method for designing geographically optimized PV cells with using a numerical model for bandgap optimization. The geographic microclimate spectrally resolved solar flux for twelve representative atmospheric conditions for the incident radiation angle (zenith angle of 48.1° and fixed array angle of 40° is used to iteratively optimize the band gap for tandem, triple, and quad-layer of InGaN-based multijunction cells. The results of this method are illustrated for the case study of solar farms in the New York region and discussed.

  11. The influence of inter-annually varying albedo on regional climate and drought

    KAUST Repository

    Meng, Xianhong

    2013-05-05

    Albedo plays an important role in land-atmosphere interactions and local climate. This study presents the impact on simulating regional climate, and the evolution of a drought, when using the default climatological albedo as is usually done in regional climate modelling, or using the actual observed albedo which is rarely done. Here, time-varying satellite derived albedo data is used to update the lower boundary condition of the Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model in order to investigate the influence of observed albedo on regional climate simulations and also potential changes to land-atmosphere feedback over south-east Australia. During the study period from 2000 to 2008, observations show that albedo increased with an increasingly negative precipitation anomaly, though it lagged precipitation by several months. Compared to in-situ observations, using satellite observed albedo instead of the default climatological albedo provided an improvement in the simulated seasonal mean air temperature. In terms of precipitation, both simulations reproduced the drought that occurred from 2002 through 2006. Using the observed albedo produced a drier simulation overall. During the onset of the 2002 drought, albedo changes enhanced the precipitation reduction by 20 % on average, over locations where it was active. The area experiencing drought increased 6.3 % due to the albedo changes. Two mechanisms for albedo changes to impact land-atmosphere drought feedback are investigated. One accounts for the increased albedo, leading to reduced turbulent heat flux and an associated decrease of moist static energy density in the planetary boundary layer; the other considers that enhanced local radiative heating, due to the drought, favours a deeper planetary boundary layer, subsequently decreasing the moist static energy density through entrainment of the free atmosphere. Analysis shows that drought related large-scale changes in the regional climate favour a

  12. Assessing the effects of adaptation measures on optimal water resources allocation under varied water availability conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dedi; Guo, Shenglian; Shao, Quanxi; Liu, Pan; Xiong, Lihua; Wang, Le; Hong, Xingjun; Xu, Yao; Wang, Zhaoli

    2018-01-01

    Human activities and climate change have altered the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability which is a principal prerequisite for allocation of different water resources. In order to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on water availability and optimal allocation of water resources, hydrological models and optimal water resource allocation models should be integrated. Given that increasing human water demand and varying water availability conditions necessitate adaptation measures, we propose a framework to assess the effects of these measures on optimal allocation of water resources. The proposed model and framework were applied to a case study of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin in China. Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) were employed to project future climate, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was used to simulate the variability of flows under historical (1956-2011) and future (2012-2099) conditions. The water availability determined by simulating flow with the VIC hydrological model was used to establish the optimal water resources allocation model. The allocation results were derived under an extremely dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 95%), a very dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 90%), a dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 75%), and a normal year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 50%) during historical and future periods. The results show that the total available water resources in the study area and the inflow of the Danjiangkou Reservoir will increase in the future. However, the uneven distribution of water availability will cause water shortage problems, especially in the boundary areas. The effects of adaptation measures, including water saving, and dynamic control of flood limiting water levels (FLWLs) for reservoir operation, were

  13. Varied overstrain injuries of the vertebral column conditioned by evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kohlbach, W

    1983-08-01

    During physiological growth of the juvenile vertebral column, various stages of stability occur which are characterized by the condition of the marginal rim of the vertebral bodies. If the vertebral juvenile column is overstrained, these variations in stability results in a variety of damage to vertebral bodies and vertebral disks. One of these lesions corresponds to Scheuermann's disease (osteochondrosis of vertebral epiphyses in juveniles). Damage of the vertebral column due to overstrain can occur only if the overstrain is applied in upright position. Since Man alone can damage his vertebral column in upright position (as a result of his evolutionary development), Scheuermann's thesis is confirmed that Scheuermann's disease is confined to Man. Spondylolysis/spondylolisthesis is also a damage caused by overstrain. Here, too, the damage can occur only if the load is exercised in upright position, with the exception of a slanted positioning of the intervertebral components.

  14. Varied overstrain injuries of the vertebral column conditioned by evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohlbach, W.

    1983-01-01

    During physiological growth of the juvenile vertebral column, various stages of stability occur which are characterized by the condition of the marginal rim of the vertebral bodies. If the vertebral juvenile column is overstrained, these variations in stability results in a variety of damage to vertebral bodies and vertebral disks. One of these lesions corresponds to Scheuermann's disease (osteochondrosis of vertebral epiphyses in juveniles). Damage of the vertebral column due to overstrain can occur only if the overstrain is applied in upright position. Since Man alone can damage his vertebral column in upright position (as a result of his evolutionary development), Scheuermann's thesis is confirmed that Scheuermann's disease is confined to Man. Spondylolysis/spondylolisthesis is also a damage caused by overstrain. Here, too, the damage can occur only if the load is exercised in upright position, with the exception of a slanted positioning of the intervertebral components. (orig.) [de

  15. Varied overstrain injuries of the vertebral column conditioned by evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kohlbach, W.

    1983-08-01

    During physiological growth of the juvenile vertebral column, various stages of stability occur which are characterized by the condition of the marginal rim of the vertebral bodies. If the vertebral juvenile column is overstrained, these variations in stability results in a variety of damage to vertebral bodies and vertebral disks. One of these lesions corresponds to Scheuermann's disease (osteochondrosis of vertebral epiphyses in juveniles). Damage of the vertebral column due to overstrain can occur only if the overstrain is applied in upright position. Since Man alone can damage his vertebral column in upright position (as a result of his evolutionary development), Scheuermann's thesis is confirmed that Scheuermann's disease is confined to Man. Spondylolysis/spondylolisthesis is also a damage caused by overstrain. Here, too, the damage can occur only if the load is exercised in upright position, with the exception of a slanted positioning of the intervertebral components.

  16. Weed spectrum and selectivity of tembotrione under varying environmental conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gatzweiler, Elmar

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Tembotrione is a novel HPPD maize herbicide effective against a wide range of broadleaf and grass weeds. Some characteristics of this compound are described in this paper linking weed and crop responses following tembotrione applications to environmental parameters or use conditions. The activity of HPPD herbicides is very much dependant on the availability of light. Increasing illumination intensities following application augmented the activity levels of several comparable HPPD compounds in a growth chamber experiment. Tembotrione was shown to be more efficacious at low and high illumination intensities compared to standard herbicides applied at the same rate. At the high intensity, tembotrione retained its high efficacy from two up to four weeks after application showing a rapid and strong herbicidal activity. The activity following post-emergent treatments of tembotrione against broadleaf weeds was influenced by soil characteristics such as soil texture and organic matter content in a glasshouse test. The level of weed suppression clearly declined stronger on heavier soils than on lighter soils at a rather low application rate of 12.5 g a.i./ha and lower. This is a clear indication of residual efficacy of tembotrione. The selectivity of tembotrione was tested on numerous maize varieties following post-emergent treatment with tembotrione alone or in mixture with the safener isoxadifen-ethyl under field conditions in Germany in comparison to a standard herbicide. The level of crop phytotoxicity tended to increase in the following order: Tembotrione plus safener, standard herbicide to tembotrione alone. Only the mixture of tembotrione with safener did not cause significant adverse effects on maize. Another field experiment in the USA examined crop phytotoxicity using one maize variety in a situation of infurrow soil insecticide treatment followed by a post-emergent application of tembotrione (plus/minus isoxadifen-ethyl and standard herbicides

  17. Applicability of common stomatal conductance models in maize under varying soil moisture conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiuling; He, Qijin; Zhou, Guangsheng

    2018-07-01

    In the context of climate warming, the varying soil moisture caused by precipitation pattern change will affect the applicability of stomatal conductance models, thereby affecting the simulation accuracy of carbon-nitrogen-water cycles in ecosystems. We studied the applicability of four common stomatal conductance models including Jarvis, Ball-Woodrow-Berry (BWB), Ball-Berry-Leuning (BBL) and unified stomatal optimization (USO) models based on summer maize leaf gas exchange data from a soil moisture consecutive decrease manipulation experiment. The results showed that the USO model performed best, followed by the BBL model, BWB model, and the Jarvis model performed worst under varying soil moisture conditions. The effects of soil moisture made a difference in the relative performance among the models. By introducing a water response function, the performance of the Jarvis, BWB, and USO models improved, which decreased the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) by 15.7%, 16.6% and 3.9%, respectively; however, the performance of the BBL model was negative, which increased the NRMSE by 5.3%. It was observed that the models of Jarvis, BWB, BBL and USO were applicable within different ranges of soil relative water content (i.e., 55%-65%, 56%-67%, 37%-79% and 37%-95%, respectively) based on the 95% confidence limits. Moreover, introducing a water response function, the applicability of the Jarvis and BWB models improved. The USO model performed best with or without introducing the water response function and was applicable under varying soil moisture conditions. Our results provide a basis for selecting appropriate stomatal conductance models under drought conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P

    2016-10-20

    In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

  19. A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P.

    2016-10-01

    In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

  20. Wind energy under cold climate conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maribo Pedersen, B.

    1999-03-01

    There is an increasing interest in wind energy production under different climatic conditions, among them cold climate and icing conditions. More and more wind turbines are being installed in cold climates and even adapted technology has been developed for that environment. Various national activities are going on in at least Finland, Canada, Italy, Sweden, etc. and international collaboration has been carried out within the European Union's Non-nuclear energy programme. Wind turbine operation is affected by both the cold temperatures and the formation of ice on the blades and the supporting structure. Cold temperatures can be handled by material selections known in other technical fields but to prevent icing, new techniques have to be - and have been - developed. Icing affects the reliability of anemometers, which concerns both turbine control and resource estimation, and changes the aerodynamics of the blades, which eventually stops the turbine. In addition, occasional icing events can locally affect public safety. The development of applied technology has entered some different paths and different solutions are tried out. As the applications are entering a commercial phase, these is a request to gather the experiences and monitor the reliability in a form that can be utilised by developers, manufactureres, consultants and other tenderers. The Topical Experts Meeting will focus on site classification, operational experiences, modelling and mesurements of ice induced loads and safety aspects. (EHS)

  1. Assessment and Comparison of TMPA Satellite Precipitation Products in Varying Climatic and Topographic Regimes in Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Milewski

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA satellite precipitation products have been utilized to quantify, forecast, or understand precipitation patterns, climate change, hydrologic models, and drought in numerous scientific investigations. The TMPA products recently went through a series of algorithm developments to enhance the accuracy and reliability of high-quality precipitation measurements, particularly in low rainfall environments and complex terrain. In this study, we evaluated four TMPA products (3B42: V6, V7temp, V7, RTV7 against 125 rain gauges in Northern Morocco to assess the accuracy of TMPA products in various regimes, examine the performance metrics of new algorithm developments, and assess the impact of the processing error in 2012. Results show that the research products outperform the real-time products in all environments within Morocco, and the newest algorithm development (3B42 V7 outperforms the previous version (V6, particularly in low rainfall and high-elevation environments. TMPA products continue to overestimate precipitation in arid environments and underestimate it in high-elevation areas. Lastly, the temporary processing error resulted in little bias except in arid environments. These results corroborate findings from previous studies, provide scientific data for the Middle East, highlight the difficulty of using TMPA products in varying conditions, and present preliminary research for future algorithm development for the GPM mission.

  2. Automatically Maintain Climatic Conditions inside Agricultural Greenhouses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Jasim Ramadhan

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In this work, a novel system is designed to remote monitor / automatic control of the temperature, humidity and soil moisture of the agricultural greenhouses. In the proposed system, the author used the mentioned sensors for monitoring the climatic conditions of the agricultural greenhouses; and the system makes a controlling process to fix the required parameters for plant growth by running / stopping the fan, air exchanger and irrigation devices when any changes happened in these parameters. The presented system is based on XBee protocol in the implemented wireless sensor star topology network (WSN to monitor the agricultural greenhouses in real time, and used the GSM and Internet technologies to monitor the agricultural greenhouses from anywhere.

  3. Pre-instrumental climate: How has climate varied during the past 500 years?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, R.S.

    1990-01-01

    There is a need for a long-term record of global or hemispheric temperature which extends back in time beyond the limited (100-150 year) span of the instrumental record. The extent to which this can be achieved is discussed and attention is focused on climatic (mainly temperature) information that has been derived from historical (documentary) sources. Records from western Europe, East Asia, North America and Africa are examined and the characteristics that they have in common are identified. Although there are many differences among the regional records, all show that the 20th-century warming is unique in the context of the last 500 years. However, many types of documentary evidence tend to emphasize colder intervals and may underestimate warmer periods. The underlying trend in temperature depends on the time period selected and may differ by season. Maximum upward trends are given by a series beginning in the late 19th century and extending through the 1980s. There is little prospect of reconstructing a hemispherically representative record of temperature from historical data alone, and the best strategy may be to combine many different types of proxy data

  4. Pre-instrumental climate: How has climate varied during the past 500 years?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, R.S.

    1991-01-01

    There is a need for a long-term record of global or hemispheric temperature which extends back in time beyond the limited (100-150 year) span of the instrumental record. The extent to which this can be achieved is discussed and attention is focused on climatic (mainly temperature) information that has been derived from historical (documentary) sources. Records from western Europe, East Asia, North America and Africa are examined and the characteristics that they have in common are identified. Although there are many differences among the regional records, all show that the 20th-century warming is unique in the context of the last 500 years. However, many types of documentary evidence tend to emphasize colder intervals and may underestimate warmer periods. The underlying trend in temperature depends on the time period selected and may differ by season. Maximum upward trends are given by a series beginning in the late 19th century and extending through the 1980s. There is little prospect of reconstructing a hemispherically representative record of temperature from historical data alone, and the best strategy may be to combine many different types of proxy data. 53 refs.; 12 figs

  5. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

    2015-01-01

    The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

  6. Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2010-11-09

    Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.

  7. Varying Influence of Different Forcings on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohtadi, M.; Huang, E.; Hollstein, M.; Chen, Y.; Schefuß, E.; Rosenthal, Y.; Prange, M.; Oppo, D.; Liu, J.; Steinke, S.; Martinez-Mendez, G.; Tian, J.; Moffa-Sanchez, P.; Lückge, A.

    2017-12-01

    Proxy records of rainfall in marine archives from the eastern and western parts of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) vary at precessional band and suggest a dominant role of orbital forcing by modulating monsoon rainfall and the position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Rainfall changes recorded in marine archives from the northern South China Sea reveal a more complex history. They are largely consistent with those recorded in the Chinese cave speleothems during glacial periods, but show opposite changes during interglacial peaks that coincide with strong Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima. During glacial periods, the establishment of massive Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the exposure of broad continental shelves in East and Southeast Asia alter the large-scale routes and amounts of water vapor transport onto land relative to interglacials. Precipitation over China during glacials varies at precessional band and is dominated by water vapor transport from the nearby tropical and northwest Pacific, resulting in consistent changes in precipitation over large areas. In the absence of ice forcing during peak interglacials with a strong summer insolation, the low-level southerly monsoonal winds mainly of the Indian Ocean origin penetrate further landward and rainout along their path over China. Subsurface temperatures from the IPWP lack changes on glacial-interglacial timescales but follow the obliquity cycle, and suggest that obliquity-paced climate variations at mid-latitudes remotely control subsurface temperatures in the IPWP. Temperature and rainfall in the IPWP respond primarily to abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic on millennial timescales, and to ENSO and solar forcing on interannual to decadal timescales. In summary, results from marine records reveal that the IPWP climate is sensitive to changes in spatial and temporal distribution of heat by many types of forcing, the influence of which seems to vary in time and space.

  8. Predicting moisture state of timber members in a continuously varying climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Staffan; Turk, Goran; Hozjan, Tomaz

    2011-01-01

    A prerequisite for a sensible estimate of moisture induced stresses in timber members is an accurate prediction of the members’ moisture states during their service life. There are, however, an infinite number of possible moisture states for an arbitrary timber member in a natural varying climate...... the realizations were made, are based on a fully coupled transport model including a model for the influential sorption hysteresis of wood. A format containing required information suitable for assessing the “moisture” action on timber members is proposed. In addition it is illustrated how a model of high...

  9. Direct fitness of group living mammals varies with breeding strategy, climate and fitness estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebensperger, Luis A; Rivera, Daniela S; Hayes, Loren D

    2012-09-01

    1. Understanding how variation in fitness relates to variation in group living remains critical to determine whether this major aspect of social behaviour is currently adaptive. 2. Available evidence in social mammals aimed to examine this issue remains controversial. Studies show positive (i.e. potentially adaptive), neutral or even negative fitness effects of group living. 3. Attempts to explain this variation rely on intrinsic and extrinsic factors to social groups. Thus, relatively more positive fitness effects are predicted in singularly breeding as opposed to plural breeding species. Fitness effects of sociality in turn may depend on ecological conditions (i.e. extrinsic factors) that influence associated benefits and costs. 4. We used meta-analytic tools to review how breeding strategy or ecological conditions influence the effect size associated with direct fitness-sociality relationships reported in the mammalian literature. Additionally, we determined how taxonomic affiliation of species studied, different fitness and sociality measures used, and major climatic conditions of study sites explained any variation in direct fitness effect size. 5. We found group living had modest, yet positive effects on direct fitness. This generally adaptive scenario was contingent not only upon breeding strategy and climate of study sites, but also on fitness measures examined. Thus, positive and significant effects characterized singular as opposed to plural breeding strategies. 6. We found more positive fitness effects on studies conducted in tropical as opposed to temperate or arid climates. More positive and significant effects were noted on studies that relied on group fecundity, male fecundity and offspring survival as measures of fitness. 7. To conclude, direct fitness consequences of mammalian group living are driven by interspecific differences in breeding strategy and climate conditions. Other factors not examined in this study, namely individual variation in

  10. Climate change and its potential impact on mechanical, hydraulic and chemical conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naslund, J.O.

    2009-01-01

    The strategy for managing climate related conditions in SKB ' s safety assessments are based on the notion that it is not possible to predict climate in a 100 000-year time perspective. Instead, the approach in the SR-Can safety assessment was to identify and analyse both moderate climate evolutions as well as extremes within which the climate in Scandinavia may vary. To this end, knowledge on general climate variations in Scandinavia was used to identify characteristic climate domains which in turn were used to build a number of selected climate scenarios. The relevant climate domains for the Forsmark and Laxemar sites in the 100 000-year time perspective are; 1) a temperate climate domain, 2) a peri-glacial climate domain, and 3) a glacial climate domain. Also submerged/non-submerged conditions at the sites are of importance. In the SR-Can safety assessment several climate scenarios were investigated, including a reference evolution based on a repetition of reconstructed conditions for last glacial cycle (the Weichselian glaciation and the Holocene interglacial). For this reconstruction, extensive numerical simulations of ice sheets, isostatic changes, and permafrost were conducted. The resulting scenario showed site-specific timing and duration of the three climate domains and submerged periods for the full glacial cycle. This scenario is not a prediction of a future climate evolution. Instead it is one example of a future evolution that in a realistic and consistent way covers all relevant climate related changes that can be expected in a 100 000-year time perspective. Subsequently, this scenario formed the basis for the construction of additional climate scenarios that were used to analyse the effects of more extreme climate evolutions than during the last glacial cycle. Examples of complementary scenarios are a warmer and wetter climate scenario caused by an increased greenhouse effect, and colder scenarios with deeper permafrost or thicker ice sheets than in

  11. The influence of spatially and temporally varying oceanographic conditions on meroplanktonic metapopulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botsford, L. W.; Moloney, C. L.; Hastings, A.; Largier, J. L.; Powell, T. M.; Higgins, K.; Quinn, J. F.

    We synthesize the results of several modelling studies that address the influence of variability in larval transport and survival on the dynamics of marine metapopulations distributed along a coast. Two important benthic invertebrates in the California Current System (CCS), the Dungeness crab and the red sea urchin, are used as examples of the way in which physical oceanographic conditions can influence stability, synchrony and persistence of meroplanktonic metapopulations. We first explore population dynamics of subpopulations and metapopulations. Even without environmental forcing, isolated local subpopulations with density-dependence can vary on time scales roughly twice the generation time at high adult survival, shifting to annual time scales at low survivals. The high frequency behavior is not seen in models of the Dungeness crab, because of their high adult survival rates. Metapopulations with density-dependent recruitment and deterministic larval dispersal fluctuate in an asynchronous fashion. Along the coast, abundance varies on spatial scales which increase with dispersal distance. Coastwide, synchronous, random environmental variability tends to synchronize these metapopulations. Climate change could cause a long-term increase or decrease in mean larval survival, which in this model leads to greater synchrony or extinction respectively. Spatially managed metapopulations of red sea urchins go extinct when distances between harvest refugia become greater than the scale of larval dispersal. All assessments of population dynamics indicate that metapopulation behavior in general dependes critically on the temporal and spatial nature of larval dispersal, which is largely determined by physical oceanographic conditions. We therfore explore physical influences on larval dispersal patterns. Observed trends in temperature and salinity applied to laboratory-determined responses indicate that natural variability in temperature and salinity can lead to variability in

  12. Modelling and Control of Ionic Electroactive Polymer Actuators under Varying Humidity Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sunjai Nakshatharan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we address the problem of position control of ionic electroactive polymer soft actuators under varying relative humidity conditions. The impact of humidity on the actuation performance of ionic actuators is studied through frequency response and impedance spectroscopy analysis. Considering the uncertain performance of the actuator under varying humidity conditions, an adaptable model using the neural network method is developed. The model uses relative humidity magnitude as one of the model parameters, making it robust to different environmental conditions. Utilizing the model, a closed-loop controller based on the model predictive controller is developed for position control of the actuator. The developed model and controller are experimentally verified and found to be capable of predicting and controlling the actuators with excellent tracking accuracy under relative humidity conditions varying in the range of 10–90%.

  13. Relationship between climate conditions and nosocomial infection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    EB

    Conclusion: To decrease NIRs and improve health care quality, it is necessary to strengthen the control of ... level, etc.) and environmental factors (climatic ... those in developing countries the wards are generally ... Therefore, effects of ambient.

  14. Computing Conditional VaR using Time-varying CopulasComputing Conditional VaR using Time-varying Copulas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available It is now widespread the use of Value-at-Risk (VaR as a canonical measure at risk. Most accurate VaR measures make use of some volatility model such as GARCH-type models. However, the pattern of volatility dynamic of a portfolio follows from the (univariate behavior of the risk assets, as well as from the type and strength of the associations among them. Moreover, the dependence structure among the components may change conditionally t past observations. Some papers have attempted to model this characteristic by assuming a multivariate GARCH model, or by considering the conditional correlation coefficient, or by incorporating some possibility for switches in regimes. In this paper we address this problem using time-varying copulas. Our modeling strategy allows for the margins to follow some FIGARCH type model while the copula dependence structure changes over time.

  15. Bearing Condition Recognition and Degradation Assessment under Varying Running Conditions Using NPE and SOM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaohui Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Manifold learning methods have been widely used in machine condition monitoring and fault diagnosis. However, the results reported in these studies focus on the machine faults under stable loading and rotational speeds, which cannot interpret the practical machine running. Rotating machine is always running under variable speeds and loading, which makes the vibration signal more complicated. To address such concern, the NPE (neighborhood preserving embedding is applied for bearing fault classification. Compared with other algorithms (PCA, LPP, LDA, and ISOP, the NPE performs well in feature extraction. Since the traditional time domain signal denoising is time consuming and memory consuming, we denoise the signal features directly in feature space. Furthermore, NPE and SOM (self-organizing map are combined to assess the bearing degradation performance. Simulation and experiment results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  16. Relationship between climate conditions and nosocomial infection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Nosocomial infections constitute a global health problem. Objective: To explore the relationship between nosocomial infection rates (NIRs) and climatic factors including temperature and relative humidity in Guangzhou area of China. Methods: 30892 patients in our hospital in 2009 were investigated for ...

  17. Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].

  18. Towards artificial intelligence based diesel engine performance control under varying operating conditions using support vector regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naradasu Kumar Ravi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Diesel engine designers are constantly on the look-out for performance enhancement through efficient control of operating parameters. In this paper, the concept of an intelligent engine control system is proposed that seeks to ensure optimized performance under varying operating conditions. The concept is based on arriving at the optimum engine operating parameters to ensure the desired output in terms of efficiency. In addition, a Support Vector Machines based prediction model has been developed to predict the engine performance under varying operating conditions. Experiments were carried out at varying loads, compression ratios and amounts of exhaust gas recirculation using a variable compression ratio diesel engine for data acquisition. It was observed that the SVM model was able to predict the engine performance accurately.

  19. Leading-Edge Noise Prediction of General Airfoil Profiles with Spanwise-Varying Inflow Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miotto, Renato Fuzaro; Wolf, William Roberto; De Santana, Leandro Dantas

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the leading-edge noise radiated by an airfoil undergoing a turbulent inflow. The noise prediction of generic airfoil profiles subjected to spanwise-varying inflow conditions is performed with the support of Amiet’s theory and the inverse strip technique. In the

  20. Leading-Edge Noise Prediction of General Airfoil Profiles with Spanwise-Varying Inflow Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miotto, Renato Fuzaro; Wolf, William Roberto; De Santana, Leandro Dantas

    This paper presents a study of the leading-edge noise radiated by an airfoil undergoing a turbulent inflow. The noise prediction of generic airfoil profiles subjected to spanwise-varying inflow conditions is performed with the support of Amiet’s theory and the inverse strip technique. In the

  1. Incipient Fault Detection for Rolling Element Bearings under Varying Speed Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lang Xue

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Varying speed conditions bring a huge challenge to incipient fault detection of rolling element bearings because both the change of speed and faults could lead to the amplitude fluctuation of vibration signals. Effective detection methods need to be developed to eliminate the influence of speed variation. This paper proposes an incipient fault detection method for bearings under varying speed conditions. Firstly, relative residual (RR features are extracted, which are insensitive to the varying speed conditions and are able to reflect the degradation trend of bearings. Then, a health indicator named selected negative log-likelihood probability (SNLLP is constructed to fuse a feature set including RR features and non-dimensional features. Finally, based on the constructed SNLLP health indicator, a novel alarm trigger mechanism is designed to detect the incipient fault. The proposed method is demonstrated using vibration signals from bearing tests and industrial wind turbines. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method for incipient fault detection of rolling element bearings under varying speed conditions.

  2. Incipient Fault Detection for Rolling Element Bearings under Varying Speed Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Lang; Li, Naipeng; Lei, Yaguo; Li, Ningbo

    2017-06-20

    Varying speed conditions bring a huge challenge to incipient fault detection of rolling element bearings because both the change of speed and faults could lead to the amplitude fluctuation of vibration signals. Effective detection methods need to be developed to eliminate the influence of speed variation. This paper proposes an incipient fault detection method for bearings under varying speed conditions. Firstly, relative residual (RR) features are extracted, which are insensitive to the varying speed conditions and are able to reflect the degradation trend of bearings. Then, a health indicator named selected negative log-likelihood probability (SNLLP) is constructed to fuse a feature set including RR features and non-dimensional features. Finally, based on the constructed SNLLP health indicator, a novel alarm trigger mechanism is designed to detect the incipient fault. The proposed method is demonstrated using vibration signals from bearing tests and industrial wind turbines. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method for incipient fault detection of rolling element bearings under varying speed conditions.

  3. Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav (Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)); Brandefelt, Jenny (Dept. of Mechanics, Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Smith, Ben (Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)); Wohlfarth, Barbara (Dept. of Geology and Geochemistry, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-04-15

    This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform

  4. Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav; Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Smith, Ben; Wohlfarth, Barbara

    2009-04-01

    This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform

  5. Vegetation index anomaly response to varying lengths of drought across vegetation and climatic gradients in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, M.; Miura, T.; Trauernicht, C.; Frazier, A. G.

    2017-12-01

    A drought which results in prolonged and extended deficit in naturally available water supply and creates multiple stresses across ecosystems is classified as an ecological drought. Detecting and understanding the dynamics and response of such droughts in tropical systems, specifically across various vegetation and climatic gradients is fairly undetermined, yet increasingly important for better understandings of the ecological effects of drought. To understanding the link between what lengths and intensities of known meteorological drought triggers detectable ecological vegetation responses, a landscape scale regression analysis evaluating the response (slope) and relationship strength (R-squared) of several cumulative SPI (standard precipitation index) lengths(1, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48, and 60 month), to various satellite derived monthly vegetation indices anomalies (NDVI, EVI, EVI2, and LSWI) was performed across a matrix of dominant vegetation covers (grassland, shrubland, and forest) and climatic moisture zones (arid, dry, mesic, and wet). The nine different SPI lags across these climactic and vegetation gradients was suggest that stronger relationships and steeper slopes were found in dryer climates (across all vegetation covers) and finer vegetation types (across all moisture zones). Overall NDVI, EVI and EVI2 showed the best utility in these dryer climatic zones across all vegetation types. Within arid and dry areas "best" fits showed increasing lengths of cumulative SPI were with increasing vegetation coarseness respectively. Overall these findings suggest that rainfall driven drought may have a stronger impact on the ecological condition of vegetation in water limited systems with finer vegetation types ecologically responding more rapidly to meteorological drought events than coarser woody vegetation systems. These results suggest that previously and newly documented trends of decreasing rainfall and increasing drought in Hawaiian drylands may have

  6. Georgian climate change under global warming conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Elizbarashvili

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936–2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10 mm, 20 mm and 50 mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150–200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10–15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.

  7. Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trnka, Miroslav; Olesen, J. E.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Skjelvag, A. O.; Eitzinger, J.; Seguin, B.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Rotter, R.; Iglesias, A.; Orlandini, S.; Dubrovský, Martin; Hlavinka, P.; Balek, J.; Eckersten, H.; Cloppet, E.; Calanca, P.; Vucetic, V.; Nejedlík, P.; Kumar, S.; Lalic, B.; Mestre, A.; Rossi, F.; Kozyra, J.; Alexandrov, V.; Semerádová, D.; Žalud, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 7 (2011), s. 2298-2318 ISSN 1354-1013 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520; CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : agroclimatic extremes * agroclimatic index * climate- change impacts * crop production * environmental zones Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 6.862, year: 2011

  8. Remaining useful life estimation for deteriorating systems with time-varying operational conditions and condition-specific failure zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Qi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic time-varying operational conditions pose great challenge to the estimation of system remaining useful life (RUL for the deteriorating systems. This paper presents a method based on probabilistic and stochastic approaches to estimate system RUL for periodically monitored degradation processes with dynamic time-varying operational conditions and condition-specific failure zones. The method assumes that the degradation rate is influenced by specific operational condition and moreover, the transition between different operational conditions plays the most important role in affecting the degradation process. These operational conditions are assumed to evolve as a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC. The failure thresholds are also determined by specific operational conditions and described as different failure zones. The 2008 PHM Conference Challenge Data is utilized to illustrate our method, which contains mass sensory signals related to the degradation process of a commercial turbofan engine. The RUL estimation method using the sensor measurements of a single sensor was first developed, and then multiple vital sensors were selected through a particular optimization procedure in order to increase the prediction accuracy. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method are presented in a comparison with existing methods for the same dataset.

  9. Globally exponential stability condition of a class of neural networks with time-varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, T.-L.; Yan, J.-J.; Cheng, C.-J.; Hwang, C.-C.

    2005-01-01

    In this Letter, the globally exponential stability for a class of neural networks including Hopfield neural networks and cellular neural networks with time-varying delays is investigated. Based on the Lyapunov stability method, a novel and less conservative exponential stability condition is derived. The condition is delay-dependent and easily applied only by checking the Hamiltonian matrix with no eigenvalues on the imaginary axis instead of directly solving an algebraic Riccati equation. Furthermore, the exponential stability degree is more easily assigned than those reported in the literature. Some examples are given to demonstrate validity and excellence of the presented stability condition herein

  10. Growth-climate relationships vary with height along the stem in lodgepole pine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chhin, Sophan; Hogg, E H Ted; Lieffers, Victor J; Huang, Shongming

    2010-03-01

    This study tests the hypothesis that ring growth in the upper stem portion of trees is affected by climatic conditions differently than rings formed at breast height (1.3 m). A total of 389 trees from a network of 65 lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) sites in Alberta were examined using detailed stem analysis in order to examine interannual patterns of basal area increment and volume increment at different positions along the stem. Growth at lower sections of the bole was mainly driven by temperature and moisture conditions in the seasons prior to the growing season in the year of ring formation, while upper stem growth was more related to conditions during the year of growth, i.e., temperature in the early summer, or moisture in late winter to early spring. This translates into increased allocation of wood to the lower stem when prior late summer conditions are cool and wet, prior winters are mild (warm with little snow) and early summer conditions in the year of ring formation are hot and dry.

  11. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

    2010-01-01

    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  12. Power engineering under conditions of climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wajs, K.

    1993-01-01

    One of the climatic phenomena fairly well connected with power engineering in the so called greenhouse effect. It is caused by increase of emission to the atmosphere of the so called greenhouse gases, especially CO 2 . Mechanism of this phenomenon and the relevant observations are discussed. Basic models of the circulation of greenhouse gases are outlined and the relevant conclusions as to various probable results, especially for a large time scale, are given. Tasks in the area of power engineering activity in the present situation are described. (author). 19 refs

  13. Modelling Conditional and Unconditional Heteroskedasticity with Smoothly Time-Varying Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Christina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    multiplier type misspecification tests. Finite-sample properties of these procedures and tests are examined by simulation. An empirical application to daily stock returns and another one to daily exchange rate returns illustrate the functioning and properties of our modelling strategy in practice......In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GARCH model. They allow the conditional variance to have a smooth time-varying structure of either ad- ditive or multiplicative type. The suggested parameterizations describe both nonlinearity and structural change...... in the conditional and unconditional variances where the transition between regimes over time is smooth. A modelling strategy for these new time-varying parameter GARCH models is developed. It relies on a sequence of Lagrange multiplier tests, and the adequacy of the estimated models is investigated by Lagrange...

  14. Improving Delay-Range-Dependent Stability Condition for Systems with Interval Time-Varying Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Qian

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the delay-range-dependent stability for systems with interval time-varying delay. Through defining the new Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and estimating the derivative of the LKF by introducing new vectors, using free matrices and reciprocally convex approach, the new delay-range-dependent stability conditions are obtained. Two well-known examples are given to illustrate the less conservatism of the proposed theoretical results.

  15. The influence of inter-annually varying albedo on regional climate and drought

    KAUST Repository

    Meng, Xianhong; Evans, Jason P.; McCabe, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    Albedo plays an important role in land-atmosphere interactions and local climate. This study presents the impact on simulating regional climate, and the evolution of a drought, when using the default climatological albedo as is usually done

  16. Sex differences in in-group cooperation vary dynamically with competitive conditions and outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Drew H; Winegard, Benjamin; Oxford, Jon; Geary, David C

    2012-03-18

    Men's but not women's investment in a public goods game varied dynamically with the presence or absence of a perceived out-group. Three hundred fifty-four (167 male) young adults participated in multiple iterations of a public goods game under intergroup and individual competition conditions. Participants received feedback about whether their investments in the group were sufficient to earn a bonus to be shared among all in-group members. Results for the first trial confirm previous research in which men's but not women's investments were higher when there was a competing out-group. We extended these findings by showing that men's investment in the in-group varied dynamically by condition depending on the outcome of the previous trial: In the group condition, men, but not women, decreased spending following a win (i.e., earning an in-group bonus). In the individual condition, men, but not women, increased spending following a win. We hypothesize that these patterns reflect a male bias to calibrate their level of in-group investment such that they sacrifice only what is necessary for their group to successfully compete against a rival group.

  17. Sex Differences in In-Group Cooperation Vary Dynamically with Competitive Conditions and Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drew H. Bailey

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Men's but not women's investment in a public goods game varied dynamically with the presence or absence of a perceived out-group. Three hundred fifty-four (167 male young adults participated in multiple iterations of a public goods game under intergroup and individual competition conditions. Participants received feedback about whether their investments in the group were sufficient to earn a bonus to be shared among all in-group members. Results for the first trial confirm previous research in which men's but not women's investments were higher when there was a competing out-group. We extended these findings by showing that men's investment in the in-group varied dynamically by condition depending on the outcome of the previous trial: In the group condition, men, but not women, decreased spending following a win (i.e., earning an in-group bonus. In the individual condition, men, but not women, increased spending following a win. We hypothesize that these patterns reflect a male bias to calibrate their level of in-group investment such that they sacrifice only what is necessary for their group to successfully compete against a rival group.

  18. The effect of varying talker identity and listening conditions on gaze behavior during audiovisual speech perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchan, Julie N; Paré, Martin; Munhall, Kevin G

    2008-11-25

    During face-to-face conversation the face provides auditory and visual linguistic information, and also conveys information about the identity of the speaker. This study investigated behavioral strategies involved in gathering visual information while watching talking faces. The effects of varying talker identity and varying the intelligibility of speech (by adding acoustic noise) on gaze behavior were measured with an eyetracker. Varying the intelligibility of the speech by adding noise had a noticeable effect on the location and duration of fixations. When noise was present subjects adopted a vantage point that was more centralized on the face by reducing the frequency of the fixations on the eyes and mouth and lengthening the duration of their gaze fixations on the nose and mouth. Varying talker identity resulted in a more modest change in gaze behavior that was modulated by the intelligibility of the speech. Although subjects generally used similar strategies to extract visual information in both talker variability conditions, when noise was absent there were more fixations on the mouth when viewing a different talker every trial as opposed to the same talker every trial. These findings provide a useful baseline for studies examining gaze behavior during audiovisual speech perception and perception of dynamic faces.

  19. Differences in displayed pump flow compared to measured flow under varying conditions during simulated cardiopulmonary bypass.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hargrove, M

    2008-07-01

    Errors in blood flow delivery due to shunting have been reported to reduce flow by, potentially, up to 40-83% during cardiopulmonary bypass. The standard roller-pump measures revolutions per minute and a calibration factor for different tubing sizes calculates and displays flow accordingly. We compared displayed roller-pump flow with ultrasonically measured flow to ascertain if measured flow correlated with the heart-lung pump flow reading. Comparison of flows was measured under varying conditions of pump run duration, temperature, viscosity, varying arterial\\/venous loops, occlusiveness, outlet pressure, use of silicone or polyvinyl chloride (PVC) in the roller race, different tubing diameters, and use of a venous vacuum-drainage device.

  20. How Do Various Maize Crop Models Vary in Their Responses to Climate Change Factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Grassini, Patricio; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Adam, Myriam; hide

    2014-01-01

    Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(sup 1) per degC. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

  1. Spirometry Changes in Cold Climatic Conditions of Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udaya, Iyamanda B; Laxmi, Chettangada C; Abhishekh, Hulegar A; Raju, Trichur R; Sathyaprabha, Talakad N

    2015-01-01

    Pulmonary function is one of the important physiological measures that is known to be affected during the changes in the altitude. There is dearth of literature on changes in the pulmonary function variables in the cold climate conditions of Antarctica. We carried out spirometry before, during and after one year stay at Antarctica in members of the Indian expedition. Spirometry was carried out on 23 members of the XXVI Indian Scientific Expedition to Antarctica at baseline, after six months of expedition and at the end of one year, using standard guidelines. The tests were carried out indoor in temperature controlled laboratory. The pulmonary function test parameters did not vary across the period. Although, both forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in first second (FEV1) showed a decreasing trend but did not attain any statistical significance. However, peak expiratory flow (PEFR) rate was reduced significantly. Our study did not show consistently significant change in the pulmonary function parameters in the members of the Indian Antarctic expedition.

  2. An in vitro experimental study of flow past aortic valve under varied pulsatile conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruihang; Zhang, Yan

    2017-11-01

    Flow past aortic valve represents a complex fluid-structure interaction phenomenon that involves pulsatile, vortical, and turbulent conditions. The flow characteristics immediately downstream of the valve, such as the variation of pulsatile flow velocity, formation of vortices, distribution of shear stresses, are of particular interest to further elucidate the role of hemodynamics in various aortic diseases. However, the fluid dynamics of a realistic aortic valve is not fully understood. Particularly, it is unclear how the flow fields downstream of the aortic valve would change under varied pulsatile inlet boundary conditions. In this study, an in vitro experiment has been conducted to investigate the flow fields downstream of a silicone aortic valve model within a cardiovascular flow simulator. Phased-locked Particle Image Velocimetry measurements were performed to map the velocity fields and Reynolds normal and shear stresses at different phases in a cardiac cycle. Temporal variations of pressure across the valve model were measured using high frequency transducers. Results have been compared for different pulsatile inlet conditions, including varied frequencies (heart rates), magnitudes (stroke volumes), and cardiac contractile functions (shapes of waveforms).

  3. Modelling of the diffusion of pollutants in the atmosphere under varying conditions in large cultivated regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wueneke, C.D.; Schultz, H.

    1975-01-01

    The most important routines of a numerical code based on the particle-in-cell-method for calculating the transport and the turbulent dispersion of inert and radio-active pollutants in the atmosphere have been programmed and have been tested successfully on the CDC computer CYBER 73/76 of the Regional Computer Centre for Niedersachsen in Hanover. Compared to the Gaussian plume model such a numerical code based on the particle-in-cell-method offers several advantages for the computation of the diffusion under varying conditions in large cultivated regions. (orig.) [de

  4. DEVELOPMENT OF AUTOMATED SYSTEM OF CLIMATE CONDITIONS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novikova L.V.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The scientific work is devoted to the analysis and development of the automated control system of the climatic conditions of the minites. The analysis of existing automated control systems is carried out, in particular attention is paid to the systems of climate control of greenhouses. The technical means of the control system are determined. As a platform, Arduino®Uno is selected.

  5. Climate Change Impacts on Projections of Excess Mortality at 2030 using Spatially-Varying Ozone-Temperature Risk Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G.

    2017-01-01

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995–2005) and near-future (2025–2035) time period while incorporating a nonlinear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate nonlinear, spatially-varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 ppb (moderate level) and 75 ppb (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 ppb and 1.94°F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone due to climate change result in an increase in ozone-mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 ppb increases by 7.7% (1.6%, 14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 ppb increases by 14.2% (1.6%, 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. PMID:27005744

  6. Effect Of Climatic Conditions On Durability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahem M. Al Kiki

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Durability is one of the most important subjects in the soil stabilization. Since there is no specifications concerned the durability of lime stabilized soils, several factors were selected to show their effects on the durability, namely: wetting, drying, freezing, thawing and slaking.The effect of each one of the above factors as well as the combined effect of two or more factors, were studied on the volume change and soil strength and weight loss of soil samples stabilized with optimum lime content except the slaking test at which soil samples stabilized with different lime content.Tests results showed that the higher the lime content the lower the slaking effect, also its found the soil strength decreased when the period of immersion or freezing increased. The strength of the lime stabilized soils decreased when subjected to the cycles of wetting and drying or to the cycles freezing and thawing. However, the  combined effect of wetting, drying, freezing and thawing has a pronounced effect on reduction of the lime stabilized clayey soil. The worst condition recorded when lime stabilized soil undergo to freezing then drying then wetting which should be avoided in the field

  7. Positive and negative variations in capacitive images for given defects under varying experimental conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chen; Yin, Xiaokang; Li, Zhen; Li, Wei; Chen, Guoming

    2018-04-01

    Capacitive imaging (CI) technique is a novel electromagnetic NDE technique. The Quasi-static electromagnetic field from the carefully designed electrode pair will vary when the electrical properties of the sample change, leading to the possibility of imaging. It is observed that for a given specimen, the targeted features appear as different variations in capacitive images under different experimental conditions. In some cases, even opposite variations occur, which brings confusion to indication interpretation. It is thus thought interesting to embark on investigations into the cause and effects of the negative variation phenomenon. In this work, the positive and negative variations were first explained from the measurement sensitivity distribution perspective. This was then followed by a detailed analysis using finite element models in COMSOL. A parametric experimental study on a glass fiber composite plate with artificial defects was then carried out to investigate how the experimental conditions affect the variation.

  8. Synthesis of different-sized silver nanoparticles by simply varying reaction conditions with leaf extracts of Bauhinia variegata L.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, V; Yadav, S K

    2012-03-01

    Green synthesis of nanoparticles is one of the crucial requirements in today's climate change scenario all over the world. In view of this, leaf extract (LE) of Bauhinia variegata L. possessing strong antidiabetic and antibacterial properties has been used to synthesise silver nanoparticles (SNP) in a controlled manner. Various-sized SNP (20-120 nm) were synthesised by varying incubation temperature, silver nitrate and LE concentrations. The rate of SNP synthesis and their size increased with increase in AgNO(3) concentration up to 4 mM. With increase in LE concentration, size and aggregation of SNP was increased. The size and aggregation of SNP were also increased at temperatures above and below 40°C. This has suggested that size and dispersion of SNP can be controlled by varying reaction components and conditions. Polarity-based fractionation of B. variegata LE has suggested that only water-soluble fraction is responsible for SNP synthesis. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy analysis revealed the attachment of polyphenolic and carbohydrate moieties to SNP. The synthesised SNPs were found stable in double distilled water, BSA and phosphate buffer (pH 7.4). On the contrary, incubation of SNP with NaCl induced aggregation. This suggests the safe use of SNP for various in vivo applications.

  9. The Moderating Effect of Psychological Characteristics upon the Visionary Leadership Behavior of Principals from Varying Levels of School Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenworthy, Sue

    1994-01-01

    Results from a study with 41 Hawaiian elementary school principals indicate that, although there is no significant difference in visionary leadership scores of principals from varying levels of school climate when covaried with psychological characteristics, there is a significant main effect for "capacity of status" on visionary…

  10. Assessment of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in an atmospheric model for varying meteorological conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Anurose

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The performance of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in a high-resolution regional model (HRM is carried out by comparing the model-simulated sensible heat flux (H with the concurrent in situ measurements recorded at Thiruvananthapuram (8.5° N, 76.9° E, a coastal station in India. With a view to examining the role of atmospheric stability in conjunction with the roughness lengths in the determination of heat exchange coefficient (CH and H for varying meteorological conditions, the model simulations are repeated by assigning different values to the ratio of momentum and thermal roughness lengths (i.e. z0m/z0h in three distinct configurations of the surface-layer scheme designed for the present study. These three configurations resulted in differential behaviour for the varying meteorological conditions, which is attributed to the sensitivity of CH to the bulk Richardson number (RiB under extremely unstable, near-neutral and stable stratification of the atmosphere.

  11. Analysis of grain filling process to the varied meteorological conditions in winter wheat [Triticum aestivum] cultivars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, K.; Nakazono, K.; Wakiyama, Y.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes effects of varied meteorological conditions on the grain filling periods, stabilities of yield and quality of winter wheat cultivars with different maturity characteristics (cv. Ayahikari, Norin61, Bandowase, and Tsurupikari). In the field experiments, the meteorological treatments were made during the first heading time on 17 April 2001 and the middle heading time on 24 April 2000. Air temperature, global solar radiation and soil moisture were controlled using a rain shelter, cheesecloth and irrigation system. The growth speed and growth period of wheat grains varied among four winter wheat cultivars, depending on meteorological conditions. The growth speed increased within 1 8.4 deg C of mean air temperature over the 30 days after the anthesis. On the other hand, it was found that the growth speed of wheat grains and the maximum number of wheat grains (Ymax) decreased greatly with the 44.4% interception of global solar radiation. Logistic functions were fitted to the relationship between the relative thousand-kernel-weight (Y/Ymax) and the total integrated temperature (sigmaTa) after heading for all treatment conditions. The maximum weight of grains (Ymax) achieved at the harvest time varied somewhat clearly among four winter wheat cultivars and meteorological conditions. Multiple regression analysis showed that the grain yield (Ymax) of four wheat cultivars correlated positively with daily mean solar radiation. It was also found that the cultivar Ayahikari had a highly significant negative correlation between its grain weight and soil moisture. Namely, the grain weight of high soil moisture plot with pF=1.5 was lower by about 9% than that of a control plot with pF=3.5. On the other hand, the grain yield of cultivar Norin61 responded inversely to a wet environment, indicating that its grain weight was higher for high soil moisture and high wet-bulb temperature than for a dry environment. The grain yield of early varieties of Bandowase and

  12. Basic regulatory principles of Escherichia coli's electron transport chain for varying oxygen conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henkel, Sebastian G; Ter Beek, Alexander; Steinsiek, Sonja; Stagge, Stefan; Bettenbrock, Katja; de Mattos, M Joost Teixeira; Sauter, Thomas; Sawodny, Oliver; Ederer, Michael

    2014-01-01

    For adaptation between anaerobic, micro-aerobic and aerobic conditions Escherichia coli's metabolism and in particular its electron transport chain (ETC) is highly regulated. Although it is known that the global transcriptional regulators FNR and ArcA are involved in oxygen response it is unclear how they interplay in the regulation of ETC enzymes under micro-aerobic chemostat conditions. Also, there are diverse results which and how quinones (oxidised/reduced, ubiquinone/other quinones) are controlling the ArcBA two-component system. In the following a mathematical model of the E. coli ETC linked to basic modules for substrate uptake, fermentation product excretion and biomass formation is introduced. The kinetic modelling focusses on regulatory principles of the ETC for varying oxygen conditions in glucose-limited continuous cultures. The model is based on the balance of electron donation (glucose) and acceptance (oxygen or other acceptors). Also, it is able to account for different chemostat conditions due to changed substrate concentrations and dilution rates. The parameter identification process is divided into an estimation and a validation step based on previously published and new experimental data. The model shows that experimentally observed, qualitatively different behaviour of the ubiquinone redox state and the ArcA activity profile in the micro-aerobic range for different experimental conditions can emerge from a single network structure. The network structure features a strong feed-forward effect from the FNR regulatory system to the ArcBA regulatory system via a common control of the dehydrogenases of the ETC. The model supports the hypothesis that ubiquinone but not ubiquinol plays a key role in determining the activity of ArcBA in a glucose-limited chemostat at micro-aerobic conditions.

  13. Mapping and simulating systematics due to spatially varying observing conditions in DES science verification data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leistedt, B.; Peiris, H. V.; Elsner, F.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Amara, A.

    2016-01-01

    Spatially varying depth and the characteristics of observing conditions, such as seeing, airmass, or sky background, are major sources of systematic uncertainties in modern galaxy survey analyses, particularly in deep multi-epoch surveys. We present a framework to extract and project these sources of systematics onto the sky, and apply it to the Dark Energy Survey (DES) to map the observing conditions of the Science Verification (SV) data. The resulting distributions and maps of sources of systematics are used in several analyses of DES–SV to perform detailed null tests with the data, and also to incorporate systematics in survey simulations. We illustrate the complementary nature of these two approaches by comparing the SV data with BCC-UFig, a synthetic sky catalog generated by forward-modeling of the DES–SV images. We analyze the BCC-UFig simulation to construct galaxy samples mimicking those used in SV galaxy clustering studies. We show that the spatially varying survey depth imprinted in the observed galaxy densities and the redshift distributions of the SV data are successfully reproduced by the simulation and are well-captured by the maps of observing conditions. The combined use of the maps, the SV data, and the BCC-UFig simulation allows us to quantify the impact of spatial systematics on N(z), the redshift distributions inferred using photometric redshifts. We conclude that spatial systematics in the SV data are mainly due to seeing fluctuations and are under control in current clustering and weak-lensing analyses. However, they will need to be carefully characterized in upcoming phases of DES in order to avoid biasing the inferred cosmological results. Finally, the framework presented here is relevant to all multi-epoch surveys and will be essential for exploiting future surveys such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, which will require detailed null tests and realistic end-to-end image simulations to correctly interpret the deep, high

  14. Unusual climatic conditions and infectious diseases: observations made by Hippocrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falagas, Matthew E; Bliziotis, Ioannis A; Kosmidis, John; Daikos, George K

    2010-12-01

    About 2500 years ago, Hippocrates made noteworthy observations about the influence of climate on public health. He believed that people living in cities with different climate may suffer from different diseases. Hippocrates also observed that abrupt climatic changes or unusual weather conditions affect public health, especially the incidence and severity of various infectious diseases, including gastrointestinal infections, tuberculosis, and central nervous system infections. We believe that Hippocrates' scientific observations are great early historic examples that stress to modern infectious diseases researchers and clinicians the need to study intensively the effect of the occurring global climate changes to infectious diseases in order to help in the prevention of possible epidemics of infections. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  15. Decadal stream water quality trends under varying climate, land use, and hydrogeochemical setting in, Iowa, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Christopher; Bekins, Barbara; Kalkhoff, Stephen; Hirsch, Robert; Liao, Lixia; Barnes, Kimberlee

    2015-04-01

    Understanding how nitrogen fluxes respond to changes in agricultural practices and climatic variations is important for improving water quality in agricultural settings. In the central United States, intensification of corn cropping in support of ethanol production led to increases in N application rates in the 2000s during a period including both extreme dry and wet conditions. To examine the effect of these recent changes, a study was conducted on surface water quality in 10 major Iowa Rivers. Long term (~20 to 30 years) water quality and flow data were analyzed with Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge and Season (WRTDS), a statistical method that provides internally consistent estimates of the concentration history and reveals decadal trends that are independent of random variations of stream flow from seasonal averages. Trends of surface water quality showed constant or decreasing flow-normalized concentrations of nitrate+nitrite-N from 2000 to 2012 in all basins. To evaluate effects of annual discharge and N loading on these trends, multiple conceptual models were developed and calibrated to annual concentrations. The recent declining concentration trends can be attributed to both very high and very low streamflow discharge in the 2000's and to the long (e.g. 8-year) subsurface residence times in some basins. Dilution of surface water nitrate and depletion of stored nitrate may occur in years with very high discharge. Limited transport of N to streams and accumulation of stored N may occur in years with very low discharge. Central Iowa basins showed the greatest reduction in concentrations, likely because extensive tile-drains limit the effective volumes for storage of N and reduce residence times, and because the glacial sediments in these basins promote denitrification. Changes in nitrogen fluxes resulting from ethanol production and other factors will likely be delayed for years or decades in peripheral basins of Iowa, and may be obscured in the central

  16. Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    O’Gorman, Paul A.

    2010-01-01

    Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate chang...

  17. Predicting the effects of climate change on trophic status of three morphologically varying lakes: Implications for lake restoration and management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trolle, Dennis; Hamilton, David P.; Pilditch, Conrad A.

    2011-01-01

    To quantify the effects of a future climate on three morphologically different lakes that varied in trophic status from oligo-mesotrophic to highly eutrophic, we applied the one-dimensional lake ecosystem model DYRESM-CAEDYM to oligo-mesotrophic Lake Okareka, eutrophic Lake Rotoehu, both in the t....... Therefore, future climate effects should be taken into account in the long-term planning and implementation of lake management as strategies may need to be refined and adapted to preserve or improve the present-day lake water quality....

  18. Improvement of greenhouse design and climate control in mediterranean conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuzel, Yuksel; Zwart, de Feije; Sapounas, A.; Hemming, Silke; Stanghellini, Cecilia

    2017-01-01

    The Mediterranean Region is one of the most important areas of the world in terms of protected cultivation. Turkey, with its increasing greenhouse area, is one of the representative countries of the region. Thanks to the mild winter climatic conditions, cultivation of vegetables under simple

  19. Detection and classification of alarm threshold violations in condition monitoring systems working in highly varying operational conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strączkiewicz, M.; Barszcz, T.; Jabłoński, A.

    2015-07-01

    All commonly used condition monitoring systems (CMS) enable defining alarm thresholds that enhance efficient surveillance and maintenance of dynamic state of machinery. The thresholds are imposed on the measured values such as vibration-based indicators, temperature, pressure, etc. For complex machinery such as wind turbine (WT) the total number of thresholds might be counted in hundreds multiplied by the number of operational states. All the parameters vary not only due to possible machinery malfunctions, but also due to changes in operating conditions and these changes are typically much stronger than the former ones. Very often, such a behavior may lead to hundreds of false alarms. Therefore, authors propose a novel approach based on parameterized description of the threshold violation. For this purpose the novelty and severity factors are introduced. The first parameter refers to the time of violation occurrence while the second one describes the impact of the indicator-increase to the entire machine. Such approach increases reliability of the CMS by providing the operator with the most useful information of the system events. The idea of the procedure is presented on a simulated data similar to those from a wind turbine.

  20. Detection and classification of alarm threshold violations in condition monitoring systems working in highly varying operational conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strączkiewicz, M; Barszcz, T; Jabłoński, A

    2015-01-01

    All commonly used condition monitoring systems (CMS) enable defining alarm thresholds that enhance efficient surveillance and maintenance of dynamic state of machinery. The thresholds are imposed on the measured values such as vibration-based indicators, temperature, pressure, etc. For complex machinery such as wind turbine (WT) the total number of thresholds might be counted in hundreds multiplied by the number of operational states. All the parameters vary not only due to possible machinery malfunctions, but also due to changes in operating conditions and these changes are typically much stronger than the former ones. Very often, such a behavior may lead to hundreds of false alarms. Therefore, authors propose a novel approach based on parameterized description of the threshold violation. For this purpose the novelty and severity factors are introduced. The first parameter refers to the time of violation occurrence while the second one describes the impact of the indicator-increase to the entire machine. Such approach increases reliability of the CMS by providing the operator with the most useful information of the system events. The idea of the procedure is presented on a simulated data similar to those from a wind turbine. (paper)

  1. Assessment of monitored energy use and thermal comfort conditions in mosques in hot-humid climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Homoud, Mohammad S.; Abdou, Adel A.; Budaiwi, Ismail M. [Architectural Engineering Department, KFUPM, Dhahran 31261 (Saudi Arabia)

    2009-06-15

    In harsh climatic regions, buildings require air-conditioning in order to provide an acceptable level of thermal comfort. In many situations buildings are over cooled or the HVAC system is kept running for a much longer time than needed. In some other situations thermal comfort is not achieved due to improper operation practices coupled with poor maintenance and even lack it, and consequently inefficient air-conditioning systems. Mosques represent one type of building that is characterized by their unique intermittent operating schedule determined by prayer times, which vary continuously according to the local solar time. This paper presents the results of a study designed to monitor energy use and thermal comfort conditions of a number of mosques in a hot-humid climate so that both energy efficiency and the quality of thermal comfort conditions especially during occupancy periods in such intermittently operated buildings can be assessed accurately. (author)

  2. Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

  3. Risky behavior and its effect on survival: snowshoe hare behavior under varying moonlight conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gigliotti, Laura C.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

    2018-01-01

    Predation and predation risk can exert strong influences on the behavior of prey species. However, risk avoidance behaviors may vary among populations of the same species. We studied a population of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) near the southern edge of their range, in Pennsylvania. This population occupies different habitat types, experiences different environmental conditions, and are exposed to different predator species and densities than northern hare populations; therefore, they might exhibit differences in risk avoidance behaviors. We analyzed hare survival, movement rates, and habitat use under different levels of predation risk, as indexed by moonlight. Similar to previous work, we found snowshoe hare survival decreased with increased moon illumination during the winter, but we found differences in behavioral responses to increased predation risk. We found that snowshoe hares did not reduce movement rates during high‐risk nights, but instead found that hares selected areas with denser canopy cover, compared to low‐risk nights. We suggest that behavioral plasticity in response to predation risk allows populations of the same species to respond to localized conditions.

  4. PERT: A Method for Expression Deconvolution of Human Blood Samples from Varied Microenvironmental and Developmental Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csaszar, Elizabeth; Yu, Mei; Morris, Quaid; Zandstra, Peter W.

    2012-01-01

    The cellular composition of heterogeneous samples can be predicted using an expression deconvolution algorithm to decompose their gene expression profiles based on pre-defined, reference gene expression profiles of the constituent populations in these samples. However, the expression profiles of the actual constituent populations are often perturbed from those of the reference profiles due to gene expression changes in cells associated with microenvironmental or developmental effects. Existing deconvolution algorithms do not account for these changes and give incorrect results when benchmarked against those measured by well-established flow cytometry, even after batch correction was applied. We introduce PERT, a new probabilistic expression deconvolution method that detects and accounts for a shared, multiplicative perturbation in the reference profiles when performing expression deconvolution. We applied PERT and three other state-of-the-art expression deconvolution methods to predict cell frequencies within heterogeneous human blood samples that were collected under several conditions (uncultured mono-nucleated and lineage-depleted cells, and culture-derived lineage-depleted cells). Only PERT's predicted proportions of the constituent populations matched those assigned by flow cytometry. Genes associated with cell cycle processes were highly enriched among those with the largest predicted expression changes between the cultured and uncultured conditions. We anticipate that PERT will be widely applicable to expression deconvolution strategies that use profiles from reference populations that vary from the corresponding constituent populations in cellular state but not cellular phenotypic identity. PMID:23284283

  5. The role of seasonal, climatic and meteorological conditions in modifying nuclear accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, H.; Proehl, G.

    1989-01-01

    One of the most important factors which influence the ingestion doses after an accidental release of radionuclides is the season of the year at which the release occurs. This is demonstrated with some examples for German conditions. This seasonal effect depends strongly on the growing periods of the different plants. Therefore it is influenced by the climatic conditions which vary to a large degree in the different countries causing very different growing periods. The influence of the meteorological conditions during and after the passing of a radioactive cloud on the initial contamination of the plants is discussed

  6. Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature risk surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J; Nolte, Christopher G; Spero, Tanya L; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G

    2017-01-01

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1.6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.6 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels.

  7. Performance of desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy under different climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Agouz, S.A.; Kabeel, A.E.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The performance of the hybrid air conditioning system is studied. • The influence of important operating parameters are estimated. • The ventilation, makeup and mix cycles are investigated at different climate. • The highest COP of the hybrid air conditioning system is 1.03. • The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates. - Abstract: Energy saving still and continue a major seek in our life, due to the continuous increase in energy consumptions. So, a desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy is conducted in the current study. The thermal analysis of air conditioning system with its different components desiccant wheel, solar collector, heat exchanger, ground heat exchanger and water spray evaporative cooler is presented. Three different air conditioning cycles are simulated in the current study for different zones like: hot-dry zone, warm-dry zone, hot-humid zone and the warm-humid zone. The results show that the desiccant air conditioning system successfully provides a better thermal comfort condition in different climates. This hybrid system significantly decreases the supplied air temperature from 12.7 to 21.7 °C at different climate zones. When ω in , air and T Reg increasing, COP decreases and the ventilation cycle provides the better COP. The highest COP value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 1.03 while the lowest value is about 0.15. The SHR of makeup cycle is higher than that ventilation cycle at warm and hot-humid zone and vice versa at warm and hot-dry zone. The highest SHR value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 0.99 while the lowest value is about 0.2. The T sup,air , ω sup,air , COP and SHR isolines may easily be used for pre-evaluating of various cooling cycles in different climates. The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates

  8. Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quali...

  9. Genome-wide transcriptome analysis of soybean primary root under varying water-deficit conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Li; Prince, Silvas; Valliyodan, Babu; Joshi, Trupti; Maldonado dos Santos, Joao V; Wang, Jiaojiao; Lin, Li; Wan, Jinrong; Wang, Yongqin; Xu, Dong; Nguyen, Henry T

    2016-01-15

    Soybean is a major crop that provides an important source of protein and oil to humans and animals, but its production can be dramatically decreased by the occurrence of drought stress. Soybeans can survive drought stress if there is a robust and deep root system at the early vegetative growth stage. However, little is known about the genome-wide molecular mechanisms contributing to soybean root system architecture. This study was performed to gain knowledge on transcriptome changes and related molecular mechanisms contributing to soybean root development under water limited conditions. The soybean Williams 82 genotype was subjected to very mild stress (VMS), mild stress (MS) and severe stress (SS) conditions, as well as recovery from the severe stress after re-watering (SR). In total, 6,609 genes in the roots showed differential expression patterns in response to different water-deficit stress levels. Genes involved in hormone (Auxin/Ethylene), carbohydrate, and cell wall-related metabolism (XTH/lipid/flavonoids/lignin) pathways were differentially regulated in the soybean root system. Several transcription factors (TFs) regulating root growth and responses under varying water-deficit conditions were identified and the expression patterns of six TFs were found to be common across the stress levels. Further analysis on the whole plant level led to the finding of tissue-specific or water-deficit levels specific regulation of transcription factors. Analysis of the over-represented motif of different gene groups revealed several new cis-elements associated with different levels of water deficit. The expression patterns of 18 genes were confirmed byquantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction method and demonstrated the accuracy and effectiveness of RNA-Seq. The primary root specific transcriptome in soybean can enable a better understanding of the root response to water deficit conditions. The genes detected in root tissues that were associated with

  10. Asymmetric Vibration of Polar Orthotropic Annular Circular Plates of Quadratically Varying Thickness with Same Boundary Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Bhardwaj

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper, asymmetric vibration of polar orthotropic annular circular plates of quadratically varying thickness resting on Winkler elastic foundation is studied by using boundary characteristic orthonormal polynomials in Rayleigh-Ritz method. Convergence of the results is tested and comparison is made with results already available in the existing literature. Numerical results for the first ten frequencies for various values of parameters describing width of annular plate, thickness profile, material orthotropy and foundation constant for all three possible combinations of clamped, simply supported and free edge conditions are shown and discussed. It is found that (a higher elastic property in circumferential direction leads to higher stiffness against lateral vibration; (b Lateral vibration characteristics of F-Fplates is more sensitive towards parametric changes in material orthotropy and foundation stiffness than C-C and S-Splates; (c Effect of quadratical thickness variation on fundamental frequency is more significant in cases of C-C and S-S plates than that of F-Fplates. Thickness profile which is convex relative to plate center-line tends to result in higher stiffness of annular plates against lateral vibration than the one which is concave and (d Fundamental mode of vibration of C-C and S-Splates is axisymmetrical while that of F-Fplates is asymmetrical.

  11. Ceramic production during changing environmental/climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oestreich, Daniela B.; Glasmacher, Ulrich A.

    2015-04-01

    Ceramics, with regard to their status as largely everlasting everyday object as well as on the basis of their chronological sensitivity, reflect despite their simplicity the technological level of a culture and therefore also, directly or indirectly, the adaptability of a culture with respect to environmental and/or climatic changes. For that reason the question arises, if it is possible to identify changes in production techniques and raw material sources for ceramic production, as a response to environmental change, e.g. climate change. This paper will present results of a research about Paracas Culture (800 - 200 BC), southern Peru. Through several investigations (e.g. Schittek et al., 2014; Eitel and Mächtle, 2009) it is well known that during Paracas period changes in climate and environmental conditions take place. As a consequence, settlement patterns shifted several times through the various stages of Paracas time. Ceramics from three different sites (Jauranga, Cutamalla, Collanco) and temporal phases of the Paracas period are detailed archaeometric, geochemical and mineralogical characterized, e.g. Raman spectroscopy, XRD, and ICP-MS analyses. The aim of this research is to resolve potential differences in the chemical composition of the Paracas ceramics in space and time and to compare the data with the data sets of pre-Columbian environmental conditions. Thus influences of changing environmental conditions on human societies and their cultural conditions will be discussed. References Eitel, B. and Mächtle, B. 2009. Man and Environment in the eastern Atacama Desert (Southern Peru): Holocene climate changes and their impact on pre-Columbian cultures. In: Reindel, M. & Wagner, G. A. (eds.) New Technologies for Archaeology. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Schittek, K., Mächtle, B., Schäbitz, F., Forbriger, M., Wennrich, V., Reindel, M., and Eitel, B.. Holocene environmental changes in the highlands of the southern Peruvian Andes (14° S) and their

  12. Variáveis climáticas, condições de vida e saúde da população: a leptospirose no município do Rio de Janeiro de 1996 a 2009 Climate variables, living conditions and the health of the population: leptospirosis in the city of Rio de Janeiro from 1996 to 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa Vieira dos Santos de Oliveira

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Os eventos climáticos extremos têm fortes repercussões na saúde das pessoas, especialmente quando produz doenças ou mesmo quando provoca vítimas por acidentes. A população do Rio de Janeiro é vulnerável diante das variabilidades climáticas, principalmente pelo seu aspecto socioeconômico, pois o município tem topografia e clima que favorecem esta vulnerabilidade. Este artigo discute a evolução da leptospirose no Município do Rio de Janeiro, pelas trinta e duas Regiões administrativas, no período de 1996 a 2009, testando a hipótese de que as variações climáticas acarretam um aumento no número de casos da doença.Os dados meteorológicos utilizados foram fornecidos pelo Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e pela Empresa Brasileira de Infra-Estrutura Aero-Portuária Os dados referentes à morbimortalidade da leptospirose foram coletados da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde e Defesa Civil/RJ. Neste trabalho, concluiu-se que há correlação entre a incidência da leptospirose e a pluviometria. No entanto, ao final, é enfatizado que a oscilação do número de casos não é determinada apenas pelo índice pluviométrico, outros fatores influenciam nessa dinâmica, tais como: saneamento, assim como fatores ambientais e sociais.Extreme climate events have major repercussions on the health of the population, especially when they cause disease or even result in victims due to accidents. The population of Rio de Janeiro is vulnerable to climate variations, mainly due to the socio-economic factors, as the city has a topography and climate that enhance this vulnerability. This article discusses the evolution of leptospirosis in the thirty-two administrative regions of the city of Rio de Janeiro from 1996 through 2009, testing the hypothesis that climate variations lead to an increase in the number of cases of the disease. The meteorological data examined were provided by the National Meteorology Institute and the Brazilian Airport

  13. The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. Li

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, modified index of agreement (d1 and water balance error (WBE were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to

  14. Effect of Varying Acid Hydrolysis Condition in Gracilaria Sp. Fermentation Using Sasad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansuit, H.; Samsuri, M. D. C.; Sipaut, C. S.; Yee, C. F.; Yasir, S. M.; Mansa, R.

    2015-04-01

    Macroalgae or seaweed is being considered as promising feedstock for bioalcohol production due to high polysaccharides content. Polysaccharides can be converted into fermentable sugar through acid hydrolysis pre-treatment. In this study, the potential of using carbohydrate-rich macroalgae, Gracilaria sp. as feedstock for bioalcohol production via various acid hydrolysis conditions prior to the fermentation process was investigated and evaluated. The seaweed used in this research was from the red algae group, using species of Gracilaria sp. which was collected from Sg. Petani Kedah, Malaysia. Pre-treatment of substrate was done using H2SO4 and HCl with molarity ranging from 0.2M to 0.8M. The pretreatment time were varied in the range of 15 to 30 minutes. Fermentation was conducted using Sasad, a local Sabahan fermentation agent as a starter culture. Alcohol extraction was done using a distillation unit. Reducing sugar analysis was done by Benedict test method. Alcohol content analysis was done using specific gravity test. After hydrolysis, it was found out that acid hydrolysis at 0.2M H2SO4 and pre-treated for 20 minutes at 121°C has shown the highest reducing sugar content which has yield (10.06 mg/g) of reducing sugar. It was followed by other samples hydrolysis using 0.4M HCl with 30 minutes pre-treatment and 0.2M H2SO4, 15 minutes pre-treatment with yield of 8.06 mg/g and 5.75 mg/g reducing sugar content respectively. In conclusion, acid hydrolysis of Gracilaria sp. can produce higher reducing sugar yield and thus it can further enhance the bioalcohol production yield. Hence, acid hydrolysis of Gracilaria sp. should be studied more as it is an important step in the bioalcohol production and upscaling process.

  15. Varying responses of vegetation activity to climate changes on the Tibetan Plateau grassland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong, Nan; Shen, Miaogen; Yang, Wei; Yang, Zhiyong; Zhang, Gengxin; Piao, Shilong

    2017-08-01

    Vegetation activity on the Tibetan Plateau grassland has been substantially enhanced as a result of climate change, as revealed by satellite observations of vegetation greenness (i.e., the normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI). However, little is known about the temporal variations in the relationships between NDVI and temperature and precipitation, and understanding this is essential for predicting how future climate change would affect vegetation activity. Using NDVI data and meteorological records from 1982 to 2011, we found that the inter-annual partial correlation coefficient between growing season (May-September) NDVI and temperature (R NDVI-T ) in a 15-year moving window for alpine meadow showed little change, likely caused by the increasing R NDVI-T in spring (May-June) and autumn (September) and decreasing R NDVI-T in summer (July-August). Growing season R NDVI-T for alpine steppe increased slightly, mainly due to increasing R NDVI-T in spring and autumn. The partial correlation coefficient between growing season NDVI and precipitation (R NDVI-P ) for alpine meadow increased slightly, mainly in spring and summer, and R NDVI-P for alpine steppe increased, mainly in spring. Moreover, R NDVI-T for the growing season was significantly higher in those 15-year windows with more precipitation for alpine steppe. R NDVI-P for the growing season was significantly higher in those 15-year windows with higher temperature, and this tendency was stronger for alpine meadow than for alpine steppe. These results indicate that the impact of warming on vegetation activity of Tibetan Plateau grassland is more positive (or less negative) during periods with more precipitation and that the impact of increasing precipitation is more positive (or less negative) during periods with higher temperature. Such positive effects of the interactions between temperature and precipitation indicate that the projected warmer and wetter future climate will enhance vegetation activity

  16. Multi-Fibre Optode Microsensors: affordable designs for monitoring oxygen in soils under varying environmental conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezanezhad, F.; Milojevic, T.; Parsons, C. T.; Smeaton, C. M.; Van Cappellen, P.

    2017-12-01

    , where the imaged data is transmitted remotely using a photo-logging system. The MuFO sensor is currently being tested at a Southern Ontario field site in a year-long experiment. Here we present the field and laboratory results of soil O2 monitoring by this newly developed MuFO microsensor system under varying environmental conditions.

  17. Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditionsTIC CONDITIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

  18. GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wouters, B.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Riva, R. E. M.; Sasgen, I.; Wahr, J.

    2014-11-01

    Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data—provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)—can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography.

  19. GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wouters, B; Bonin, J A; Chambers, D P; Riva, R E M; Sasgen, I; Wahr, J

    2014-01-01

    Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data—provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)—can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography. (review article)

  20. Decision-Support System for Urban Air Pollution under Future Climate Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Jensen , Steen ,; Brandt , Jørgen; Hvidberg , Martin; Ketzel , Matthias; Hedegaard , Gitte ,; Christensen , Jens ,

    2011-01-01

    Part 6: Climate Services and Environmental Tools for Urban Planning and Climate Change Applications and Services; International audience; Climate change is expected to influence urban living conditions and challenge the ability of cities to adapt to and mitigate climate change. Urban climates will be faced with elevated temperatures and future climate conditions are expected to cause higher ozone concentrations, increased biogenic emissions from vegetation, changes in the chemistry of the atm...

  1. Agency Culture and Climate in Child Welfare: Do Perceptions Vary by Exposure to the Child Welfare System?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spielfogel, Jill E; Leathers, Sonya J; Christian, Errick

    2016-01-01

    Organizational culture and climate play a critical role in worker retention and outcomes, yet little is known about whether perceptions of culture and climate vary depending on the demands of particular roles. In this study, 113 staff from a child welfare agency completed Organizational Social Context profiles. Staff were divided into three groups according to their proximity to child welfare tasks to assess whether involvement in higher stress child welfare tasks is related to perceptions of the social context. Findings suggest possible differences across groups, with those involved in core child welfare tasks appearing to perceive higher resistance to new ways of providing services and those with the least involvement in traditional child welfare perceiving a more positive social context overall.

  2. Attenuation of organic micropollutants in an urban lowland stream under varying seasonal and hydrological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, Anna; Posselt, Malte; Schaper, Jonas; Lewandowski, Jörg

    2017-04-01

    Transport and fate of polar organic micropollutants in urban streams are of increasing concern for urban water management. Appropriate river management techniques may support a river's ability to self-purify. The river Erpe, an urban lowland stream located in Berlin, Germany, receives treated wastewater which increases its discharge up to 4-fold. Numerous micropollutants (e.g. pharmaceuticals, personal care products, performance chemicals) which survive the treatment process are released into the river and threaten ecosystems and aquatic groundwater quality. In the present work the transport of 57 substances was investigated along a 4.7 km stretch of the river with the aim of understanding the influence of varying seasonal and hydrological conditions on micropollutant fate. We hypothesized that particularly transient storage is a main driver of micropollutant attenuation. A Lagrangian sampling scheme was applied to follow water parcels down the river using the diurnal fluctuations of conservative solute concentrations as an intrinsic tracer. Water samples were collected at two (April) and three (June) stations along a 4.7 km reach downstream of the wastewater inflow. In June the experiment was conducted twice, before and after the first stretch was cleared of macrophytes. Each experiment comprised of hourly sample collection for 48 hours, accompanied by discharge measurements and continuous data logging of water-level, -temperature and electric conductivity. The set of micropollutants, which included both parent compounds and transformation products, was analysed by a newly developed direct injection-UHPLC-MS/MS method. The behaviour of individual micropollutants was compound-specific. Carbamazepine and benzotriazole were persistent along the river stretch while substances such as valsartan and metoprolol were attenuated by up to 15% of their original concentration. Interestingly, some transformation products, such as valsartan acid increased in concentration

  3. Effect of Varying Hemodynamic and Vascular Conditions on Fractional Flow Reserve: An In Vitro Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolli, Kranthi K; Min, James K; Ha, Seongmin; Soohoo, Hilary; Xiong, Guanglei

    2016-06-30

    The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of varying hemodynamic conditions on fractional flow reserve (ratio of pressure distal [Pd] and proximal [Pa] to stenosis under hyperemia) in an in vitro setting. Failure to achieve maximal hyperemia and the choice of hyperemic agents may have differential effects on coronary hemodynamics and, consequently, on the determination of fractional flow reserve. An in vitro flow system was developed to experimentally model the physiological coronary circulation as flow-dependent stenosis resistance in series with variable downstream resistance. Five idealized models with 30% to 70% diameter stenosis severity were fabricated using VeroClear rigid material in an Objet260 Connex printer. Mean aortic pressure was maintained at 7 levels (60-140 mm Hg) from hypotension to hypertension using a needle valve that mimicked adjustable microcirculatory resistance. A range of physiological flow rates was applied by a steady flow pump and titrated by a flow sensor. The pressure drop and the pressure ratio (Pd/Pa) were assessed for the 7 levels of aortic pressure and differing flow rates. The in vitro experimental data were coupled with pressure-flow relationships from clinical data for populations with and without myocardial infarction, respectively, to evaluate fractional flow reserve. The curve for pressure ratio and flow rate demonstrated a quadratic relationship with a decreasing slope. The absolute decrease in fractional flow reserve in the group without myocardial infarction (with myocardial infarction) was on the order of 0.03 (0.02), 0.05 (0.02), 0.07 (0.05), 0.17 (0.13) and 0.20 (0.24), respectively, for 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, and 70% diameter stenosis, for an increase in aortic pressure from 60 to 140 mm Hg. The fractional flow reserve value, an index of physiological stenosis significance, was observed to decrease with increasing aortic pressure for a given stenosis in this idealized in vitro experiment for vascular

  4. Diverging responses of tropical Andean biomes under future climate conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Tovar

    Full Text Available Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%-17.4%, there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar

  5. Modelling climate change impacts on stream habitat conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boegh, Eva; Conallin, John; Karthikeyan, Matheswaran

    Impact from groundwater abstraction on freshwater resources and ecosystems is an issue of sincere concern in Denmark and many other countries worldwide. In addition, climate change projections add complexity to the existing conflict between water demands to satisfy human needs and water demands...... required to conserve streams as biologically diverse and healthy ecosystems. Solutions to this intensifying conflict require a holistic approach whereby stream biota is related to their physical environment at catchment scale, as also demanded by the EU Water Framework Directive. In the present study......, climate impacts on stream ecological conditions were quantified by combining a heat and mass stream flow with a habitat suitability modelling approach. Habitat suitability indices were developed for stream velocity, water depth, water temperature and substrate. Generally, water depth was found...

  6. Changing climatic conditions in the Upper Thames River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonovic, S.P.

    2009-01-01

    'Full text:' Many climate change impact studies have been conducted using a top-down approach. First, outputs from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are considered which are downscaled in a second step to the river basin scale using either a statistical/empirical or a dynamic approach. The local climatic signal that is obtained is then used as input into a hydrological model to assess the direct consequences in the basin. Problems related to this approach include: a high degree of uncertainty associated with GCM outputs; and an increase in uncertainty due to the downscaling approach. An original inverse approach is developed in this work in order to improve the understanding of the processes leading to hydrological hazards, including both flood and drought events. The developed approach starts with the analysis of existing guidelines and management practices in a river basin with respect to critical hydrological exposures that may lead to failure of the water resources system or parts thereof. This implies that vulnerable components of the river basin have to be identified together with the risk exposure. In the next step the critical hydrologic exposures (flood levels for example) are transformed into corresponding critical meteorological conditions (extreme precipitation events for example). These local weather scenarios are then be statistically linked to possible large-scale climate conditions that are available from the GCMs. The developed procedure allows for the assessment of the vulnerability of river basins with respect to climate forcing. It also provides a tool for identifying the spatial distribution of the vulnerability and risk. Vulnerability is here characterized by the incremental losses, expressed either quantitatively or qualitatively, due to a change in the probability and magnitude of hazard events driven by climatic forcing. Vulnerability is seen as the basis for risk mitigation measures for hydrologic extremes at the basin level. The

  7. Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-11-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

  8. Effects of elevated CO2 and drought on wheat : testing crop simulation models for different experimental and climatic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ewert, F.; Rodriguez, D.; Jamieson, P.; Semenov, M.A.; Mitchell, R.A.C.; Goudriaan, J.; Porter, J.R.; Kimball, B.A.; Pinter, P.J.; Manderscheid, R.; Weigel, H.J.; Fangmeier, A.; Fereres, E.; Villalobos, F.

    2002-01-01

    Effects of increasing carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] on wheat vary depending on water supply and climatic conditions, which are difficult to estimate. Crop simulation models are often used to predict the impact of global atmospheric changes on food production. However, models have rarely been

  9. Do downscaled general circulation models reliably simulate historical climatic conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2018-01-01

    The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

  10. Volatility spillover and time-varying conditional correlation between DDGS, corn, and soybean meal markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Etienne, Xiaoli L.; Trujillo-Barrera, Andrés; Hoffman, Linwood A.

    2017-01-01

    We find distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS) prices to be positively correlated with both corn and soybean meal prices in the long run. However, neither corn nor soybean meal prices respond to deviations from this long-run relationship. We also identify strong time-varying dynamic

  11. Challenges of using air conditioning in an increasingly hot climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundgren-Kownacki, Karin; Hornyanszky, Elisabeth Dalholm; Chu, Tuan Anh; Olsson, Johanna Alkan; Becker, Per

    2018-03-01

    At present, air conditioning (AC) is the most effective means for the cooling of indoor space. However, its increased global use is problematic for various reasons. This paper explores the challenges linked to increased AC use and discusses more sustainable alternatives. A literature review was conducted applying a transdisciplinary approach. It was further complemented by examples from cities in hot climates. To analyse the findings, an analytical framework was developed which considers four societal levels—individual, community, city, and national. The main challenges identified from the literature review are as follows: environmental, organisational, socio-economical, biophysical and behavioural. The paper also identifies several measures that could be taken to reduce the fast growth of AC use. However, due to the complex nature of the problem, there is no single solution to provide sustainable cooling. Alternative solutions were categorised in three broad categories: climate-sensitive urban planning and building design, alternative cooling technologies, and climate-sensitive attitudes and behaviour. The main findings concern the problems arising from leaving the responsibility to come up with cooling solutions entirely to the individual, and how different societal levels can work towards more sustainable cooling options. It is concluded that there is a need for a more holistic view both when it comes to combining various solutions as well as involving various levels in society.

  12. Biocrust spectral response as affected by changing climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Guirado, Emilio; Escribano, Paula; Reyes, Andres; Weber, Bettina

    2017-04-01

    Drylands are characterized by scarce vegetation coverage and low rates of biological activity, both constrained by water scarcity. Under these conditions, biocrusts form key players of ecosystem functioning. They comprise complex poikilohydric communities of cyanobacteria, algae, lichens and bryophytes together with heterotrophic bacteria, archaea and fungi, which cover the uppermost soil layer. Biocrusts can cope with prolonged phases of drought, being rapidly re-activated when water becomes available again. Upon reactivation, biocrusts almost immediately turn green, fixing atmospheric carbon and nitrogen and increasing ecosystem productivity. However, due to their inconspicuous growth they have only rarely been analysed and spatially and temporally continuous information on their response to water pulses is missing. These data are particularly important under changing climatic conditions predicting an increase in aridity and variations in precipitation patterns within most of the dryland regions. In the present study, we used multi-temporal series of NDVI obtained from LANDSAT images to analyze biocrust and vegetation response to water pulses within the South African Succulent Karoo and we predicted their future response under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that biocrust and vegetation greenness are controlled by aridity, solar radiation and soil water content, showing similar annual patterns, with minimum values during dry periods that increased within the rainy season and decreased again after the onset of drought. However, biocrusts responded faster to water availability and turned green almost immediately after small rains, producing a small NDVI peak only few days after rainfall, whereas more time was needed for vegetation to grow new green tissue. However, once the photosynthetic tissue of vegetation was restored, it caused the highest increase of NDVI values after the rain. Predicted changes in precipitation patterns and aridity

  13. The effects of climatic conditions on attitudinal changes towards ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    changes associated with climate change and climatic events. The .... influence of rainfall on differences in perceptions towards building materials in poor ...... in the form of flash floods, cloud bursts, or sudden climatic events. Unusually high or ...

  14. Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Niemitz, Franziska; Reineking, Björn; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

    2011-07-01

    During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus ( Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range). First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91-0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70-0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however, were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89-0.91). In a second step, the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011-2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis. The generated risk maps

  15. Estimating time-varying conditional correlations between stock and foreign exchange markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tastan, Hüseyin

    2006-02-01

    This study explores the dynamic interaction between stock market returns and changes in nominal exchange rates. Many financial variables are known to exhibit fat tails and autoregressive variance structure. It is well-known that unconditional covariance and correlation coefficients also vary significantly over time and multivariate generalized autoregressive model (MGARCH) is able to capture the time-varying variance-covariance matrix for stock market returns and changes in exchange rates. The model is applied to daily Euro-Dollar exchange rates and two stock market indexes from the US economy: Dow-Jones Industrial Average Index and S&P500 Index. The news impact surfaces are also drawn based on the model estimates to see the effects of idiosyncratic shocks in respective markets.

  16. Thermal dynamic simulation of wall for building energy efficiency under varied climate environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuejin; Zhang, Yujin; Hong, Jing

    2017-08-01

    Aiming at different kind of walls in five cities of different zoning for thermal design, using thermal instantaneous response factors method, the author develops software to calculation air conditioning cooling load temperature, thermal response factors, and periodic response factors. On the basis of the data, the author gives the net work analysis about the influence of dynamic thermal of wall on air-conditioning load and thermal environment in building of different zoning for thermal design regional, and put forward the strategy how to design thermal insulation and heat preservation wall base on dynamic thermal characteristic of wall under different zoning for thermal design regional. And then provide the theory basis and the technical references for the further study on the heat preservation with the insulation are in the service of energy saving wall design. All-year thermal dynamic load simulating and energy consumption analysis for new energy-saving building is very important in building environment. This software will provide the referable scientific foundation for all-year new thermal dynamic load simulation, energy consumption analysis, building environment systems control, carrying through farther research on thermal particularity and general particularity evaluation for new energy -saving walls building. Based on which, we will not only expediently design system of building energy, but also analyze building energy consumption and carry through scientific energy management. The study will provide the referable scientific foundation for carrying through farther research on thermal particularity and general particularity evaluation for new energy saving walls building.

  17. Plants, birds and butterflies: short-term responses of species communities to climate warming vary by taxon and with altitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

    2014-01-01

    As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003-2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world.

  18. Slarti: A boundary condition editor for a coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickelson, S. A.; Jacob, R. L.; Pierrehumbert, R.

    2006-12-01

    One of the largest barriers to making climate models more flexible is the difficulty in creating new boundary conditions, especially for "deep time" paleoclimate cases where continents are in different positions. Climate models consist of several mutually-interacting component models and the boundary conditions must be consistent between them. We have developed a program called Slarti which uses a Graphical User Interface and a set of consistency rules to aid researchers in creating new, consistent, boundary condition files for the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM). Users can start from existing mask, topography, or bathymetry data or can build a "world" entirely from scratch (e.g. a single island continent). Once a case has been started, users can modify mask, vegetation, bathymetry, topography, and river flow fields by drawing new data through a "paint" interface. Users activate a synchronization button which goes through the fields to eliminate inconsistencies. When the changes are complete and save is selected, Slarti creates all the necessary files for an initial run of FOAM. The data is edited at the highest resolution (the ocean-land surface in FOAM) and then interpolated to the atmosphere resolution. Slarti was implemented in Java to maintain portability across platforms. We also relied heavily on Java Swing components to create the interface. This allowed us to create an object-oriented interface that could be used on many different systems. Since Slarti allows users to visualize their changes, they are able to see areas that may cause problems when the model is ran. Some examples would be lakes from the river flow field and narrow trenches within the bathymetry. Through different checks and options available through its interface, Slarti makes the process of creating new boundary conditions for FOAM easier and faster while reducing the chance for user errors.

  19. Properties of volcanic soils in cold climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Elena

    2017-04-01

    Layers of volcanic ash and the Andosol soils derived from them may play an important role in preserving snow and ice as well as developing permafrost conditions in the immediate vicinity of volcanoes of high elevation or those situated at high latitudes, and land areas, often distant from volcanic activity that are either prone to permafrost or covered by snow and ice, but are affected by the deposition of subaerial ash. The special properties of volcanic ash that are responsible are critically reviewed particularly in relation to recent research in Kamchatka in the Far East of Russia. Of particular importance are the thermal properties and the unfrozen water contents of ash layers and the rate at which the weathering of volcanic glass takes place. Volcanic glass is the most easily weathered component of volcanic ejecta (Shoji et al., 1993; Kimble et al., 2000). There are many specific environmental conditions, including paleoclimate and present-day climate, the composition of volcanic tephra and glaciation history, which cause the differences in weathering and development of volcanic ash soils (Zehetner et al., 2003). The preservation of in situ, unweathered, and unaltered surficial ash-fall deposits in the cold regions has important implications for paleoclimate and glacial history. Ash-fall deposits, which trap and preserve the soils, sediments, and landforms on which they fall, can be used to resolve local climate conditions (temperature and moisture) at the ash site during ash-fall deposition. The preservation of detailed sedimentary features (e.g. bedding in the ash, sharpness of stratigraphic contacts) can tell us about their post-depositional history, whether they have been redeposited by wind or water, or overridden by glaciers (Marchant et al., 1996). Weathering of volcanic glass results in the development of amorphous clay minerals (e.g. allophane, opal, palagonite) but this takes place much slower in cold than under warmer climate conditions. Only few

  20. How do Changes in Hydro-Climate Conditions Alter the Risk of Infection With Fasciolosis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltrame, L.; Dunne, T.; Rose, H.; Walker, J.; Morgan, E.; Vickerman, P.; Wagener, T.

    2017-12-01

    Fasciolosis is a widespread parasitic disease of livestock and is emerging as a major zoonosis. Since the parasite and its intermediate host live and develop in the environment, risk of infection is directly affected by climatic-environmental conditions. Changes in disease prevalence, seasonality and distribution have been reported in recent years and attributed to altered temperature and rainfall patterns, raising concerns about the effects of climate change in the future. Therefore, it is urgent to understand how changes in climate-environmental drivers may alter the dynamics of disease risk in a quantitative way, to guide parasite control strategies and interventions in the coming decades. In a previous work, we developed and tested a novel mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Fasciolosis, which explicitly represents the parasite life-cycle in connection with key environmental processes, allowing to capture the impact of previously unseen conditions. In this study, we use the new mechanistic model to assess the sensitivity of infection rates to changes in climate-environmental factors. This is challenging as processes underlying disease transmission are complex and interacting, and may have contrasting effects on the parasite life-cycle stages. To this end, we set up a sensitivity analysis framework to investigate in a structured way which factors play a key role in controlling the magnitude, timing and spread of infection, and how the sensitivity of disease risk varies in time and space. Moreover, we define synthetic scenarios to explore the space of possible variability of the hydro-climate drivers and investigate conditions that lead to critical levels of infection. The study shows how the new model combined with the sensitivity analysis framework can support decision-making, providing useful information for disease management.

  1. Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Weiler, Markus; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021-2050 period, while for 2071-2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as "Near-normal", in terms of drought conditions.

  2. Sales down due to particularly mild climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Paris, 27 July 2007 - For the six months to 30 June 2007, Gaz de France's consolidated sales amounted to euro 13,778 million, down 11 per cent compared to the same period in 2006. This performance continues the trend seen over the first quarter of 2007 and in particular reflects the continuation into the second quarter of the climatic factors that affected the start of the year: an exceptionally warm 2006/2007 winter, followed by a spring season with particularly high temperatures. The average temperature of the first half of 2007 corresponds to a heat risk of less than one per cent, meaning that the probability of such a temperature taking place is less than one per cent. Over the first half of the year, volumes distributed in France were down by 25 TWh compared to a comparable period with average weather conditions, whereas in 2006 they were 15 TWh above average. The impact of the weather had similar effects outside of France. Under average weather conditions, the downturn in Group sales was limited to only 0.8 per cent mainly due to market conditions made difficult by the climate, leading to a lower level of gas production and arbitrage activities. Over the first six months of 2007, the Group sought to: - Continue to strengthen its international presence, currently with euro 5,602 million in sales outside of France. The percentage of sales generated outside of France represented 41 per cent of the Group total at the end of June 2007 and increased by 4 percentage points between the first half of 2006 and the first half of 2007. - Prepare for the deregulation of the markets on 1 July 2007 and a new commercial policy for retail customers that has been built around multi-energy and multi-service market offerings. - Create a new subsidiary for the distribution, a process which will be effective at the end of the year as announced. In spite of this unfavourable context, the Group maintains the financial objective for 2007 presented with the 2006 accounts: '2007 will

  3. Sales down due to particularly mild climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    Paris, 27 July 2007 - For the six months to 30 June 2007, Gaz de France's consolidated sales amounted to euro 13,778 million, down 11 per cent compared to the same period in 2006. This performance continues the trend seen over the first quarter of 2007 and in particular reflects the continuation into the second quarter of the climatic factors that affected the start of the year: an exceptionally warm 2006/2007 winter, followed by a spring season with particularly high temperatures. The average temperature of the first half of 2007 corresponds to a heat risk of less than one per cent, meaning that the probability of such a temperature taking place is less than one per cent. Over the first half of the year, volumes distributed in France were down by 25 TWh compared to a comparable period with average weather conditions, whereas in 2006 they were 15 TWh above average. The impact of the weather had similar effects outside of France. Under average weather conditions, the downturn in Group sales was limited to only 0.8 per cent mainly due to market conditions made difficult by the climate, leading to a lower level of gas production and arbitrage activities. Over the first six months of 2007, the Group sought to: - Continue to strengthen its international presence, currently with euro 5,602 million in sales outside of France. The percentage of sales generated outside of France represented 41 per cent of the Group total at the end of June 2007 and increased by 4 percentage points between the first half of 2006 and the first half of 2007. - Prepare for the deregulation of the markets on 1 July 2007 and a new commercial policy for retail customers that has been built around multi-energy and multi-service market offerings. - Create a new subsidiary for the distribution, a process which will be effective at the end of the year as announced. In spite of this unfavourable context, the Group maintains the financial objective for 2007 presented with the 2006 accounts: &apos

  4. Linear parameter varying control of wind turbines covering both partial load and full load conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Kasper Zinck; Stoustrup, Jakob; Brath, Per

    2009-01-01

    operations tend to be ill-conditioned. The paper proposes a controller construction algorithm together with various remedies for improving the numerical conditioning the algorithm.The proposed algorithm is applied to the design of a LPV controller for wind turbines, and a comparison is made with a controller...... designed using classical techniques to conclude that an improvement in performance is obtained for the entire operating envelope....

  5. Numerical simulation of diurnally varying thermal environment in a street canyon under haze-fog conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Zijing; Dong, Jingliang; Xiao, Yimin; Tu, Jiyuan

    2015-10-01

    The impact of haze-fog on surface temperature, flow pattern, pollutant dispersion and pedestrian thermal comfort are investigated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach based on a three-dimensional street canyon model under different haze-fog conditions. In this study, light extinction coefficient (Kex) is adopted to represent haze-fog pollution level. Numerical simulations are performed for different Kex values at four representative time events (1000 LST, 1300 LST, 1600 LST and 2000 LST). The numerical results suggest that the surface temperature is strongly affected by the haze-fog condition. Surface heating induced by the solar radiation is enhanced by haze-fog, as higher surface temperature is observed under thicker haze-fog condition. Moreover, the temperature difference between sunlit and shadow surfaces is reduced, while that for the two shadow surfaces is slightly increased. Therefore, the surface temperature among street canyon facets becomes more evenly distributed under heavy haze-fog conditions. In addition, flow patterns are considerably altered by different haze-fog conditions, especially for the afternoon (1600 LST) case, in which thermal-driven flow has opposite direction as that of the wind-driven flow direction. Consequently, pollutants such as vehicular emissions will accumulate at pedestrian level, and pedestrian thermal comfort may lower under thicker haze-fog condition.

  6. Smart city planning under the climate change condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Dexiang; Zhao, Yue; Zhou, Xi

    2017-08-01

    With the aggravation of climate change, extreme weather events occur continuously, cities are not resilient to climate change, and we need to change the concept of urban planning, centering on climate research and its research achievements, combining with the modern intelligent technology and formulating a smart city that resilience to the climate change, realizing the sustainable development of human, city, environment and society.

  7. Adaptive observer-based control for an IPMC actuator under varying humidity conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernat, Jakub; Kolota, Jakub

    2018-05-01

    As ionic polymer metal composites (IPMC) are increasingly applied to mechatronic systems, many new IPMC modeling efforts have been reported in the literature. The demands of rapidly growing technology has generated interest in advancing the intrinsic actuation and sensing capabilities of IPMC. Classical IPMC applications need constant hydration to operate. On the other hand, for IPMCs operating in air, the water content of the polymer varies with the humidity level of the ambient environment, which leads to its strong humidity-dependent behavior. Furthermore, decreasing water content over time plays a crucial role in the effectiveness of IPMC. Therefore, the primary challenge of this work is to accurately model this phenomenon. The principal contribution of the paper is a new IPMC model, which considers the change of moisture content. A novel nonlinear adaptive observer is designed to determine the unknown electric potential and humidity level in the polymer membrane. This approach effectively determines the moisture content of the IPMC during long-term continuous operation in air. This subsequently allows us to develop an effective back-stepping control algorithm that considers varying moisture content. Data from experiments are presented to support the effectiveness of the observation process, which is shown in illustrative examples.

  8. Predicting groundwater recharge for varying land cover and climate conditions - a global meta-study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, Chinchu; Western, Andrew W.; Wei, Yongping; Saft, Margarita

    2018-05-01

    Groundwater recharge is one of the important factors determining the groundwater development potential of an area. Even though recharge plays a key role in controlling groundwater system dynamics, much uncertainty remains regarding the relationships between groundwater recharge and its governing factors at a large scale. Therefore, this study aims to identify the most influential factors of groundwater recharge, and to develop an empirical model to estimate diffuse rainfall recharge at a global scale. Recharge estimates reported in the literature from various parts of the world (715 sites) were compiled and used in model building and testing exercises. Unlike conventional recharge estimates from water balance, this study used a multimodel inference approach and information theory to explain the relationship between groundwater recharge and influential factors, and to predict groundwater recharge at 0.5° resolution. The results show that meteorological factors (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) and vegetation factors (land use and land cover) had the most predictive power for recharge. According to the model, long-term global average annual recharge (1981-2014) was 134 mm yr-1 with a prediction error ranging from -8 to 10 mm yr-1 for 97.2 % of cases. The recharge estimates presented in this study are unique and more reliable than the existing global groundwater recharge estimates because of the extensive validation carried out using both independent local estimates collated from the literature and national statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). In a water-scarce future driven by increased anthropogenic development, the results from this study will aid in making informed decisions about groundwater potential at a large scale.

  9. Performance of asphaltic concrete incorporating styrene butadiene rubber subjected to varying aging condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salah, Faisal Mohammed; Jaya, Ramadhansyah Putra; Mohamed, Azman; Hassan, Norhidayah Abdul; Rosni, Nurul Najihah Mad; Mohamed, Abdullahi Ali; Agussabti

    2017-12-01

    The influence of styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) on asphaltic concrete properties at different aging conditions was presented in this study. These aging conditions were named as un-aged, short-term, and long-term aging. The conventional asphalt binder of penetration grade 60/70 was used in this work. Four different levels of SBR addition were employed (i.e., 0 %, 1 %, 3 %, and 5 % by binder weight). Asphalt concrete mixes were prepared at selected optimum asphalt content (5 %). The performance was evaluated based on Marshall Stability, resilient modulus, and dynamic creep tests. Results indicated the improving stability and permanent deformation characteristics that the mixes modified with SBR polymer have under aging conditions. The result also showed that the stability, resilient modulus, and dynamic creep tests have the highest rates compared to the short-term aging and un-aged samples. Thus, the use of 5 % SBR can produce more durable asphalt concrete mixtures with better serviceability.

  10. The Metal-Halide Lamp Under Varying Gravity Conditions Measured by Emission and Laser Absorption Spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flikweert, A. J.; Nimalasuriya, T.; Kroesen, G. M. W.; Haverlag, M.; Stoffels, W. W.

    2009-11-01

    Diffusive and convective processes in the metal-halide lamp cause an unwanted axial colour segregation. Convection is induced by gravity. To understand the flow phenomena in the arc discharge lamp it has been investigated under normal laboratory conditions, micro-gravity (ISS and parabolic flights) and hyper-gravity (parabolic flights 2 g, centrifuge 1 g-10 g). The measurement techniques are webcam imaging, and emission and laser absorption spectroscopy. This paper aims to give an overview of the effect of different artificial gravity conditions on the lamp and compares the results from the three measurement techniques.

  11. Pre-Swirl Stator and Propeller Design for Varying Operating Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saettone, Simone; Regener, Pelle Bo; Andersen, Poul

    2016-01-01

    blades ahead of the propeller.This paper describes the hydrodynamic design of apre-swirl stator with radially variable pitch, paired with aconventional propeller. The aim is to achieve the highest possible effciency in various operating conditions, and to avoid effciency penalties in off-design operation.......To investigate the propeller and stator designs and configurations in different operating conditions, the computationally inexpensive vortex-lattice method is used a sa first step to optimize the geometry in an initial parameter study. Then the flow over hull, stator and propelleris simulated in a CFD...

  12. Experimental study on Kd of 137Cs at varying suspended load conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaison, T.J.; Jain, Abhishek; Patra, A.K.; Ravi, P.M.; Tripathi, R.M.

    2018-01-01

    137 Cs is one of the radionuclide likely to be released through liquid effluents from a nuclear facility. It is soluble in water, but its mobility in aquatic environments is highly retarded by its strong interaction with suspended sediment. The 137 Cs + sorption by suspended load, especially in the subtropics and tropics are not fully understood. Besides, according to IAEA document in emergency situation 137 Cs and 131 I being marker radionuclides, are easier to identify and representative of all the other radionuclides present. Hence a laboratory study is carried out on sorption of 137 Cs with varying silt load, using the upstream lake water and sediments to estimate site specific distribution coefficient (K d )

  13. Basic regulatory principles of Escherichia coli's electron transport chain for varying oxygen conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Henkel, S.G.; Ter Beek, A.S.; Steinsiek, S.; Stagge, S.; Bettenbrock, K.; Teixeira De Mattos, M.J.; Sauter, T.; Sawodny, O.; Ederer, M.

    2014-01-01

    For adaptation between anaerobic, micro-aerobic and aerobic conditions Escherichia coli's metabolism and in particular its electron transport chain (ETC) is highly regulated. Although it is known that the global transcriptional regulators FNR and ArcA are involved in oxygen response it is unclear

  14. Adult Tea Green Leafhoppers, Empoasca onukii (Matsuda), Change Behaviors under Varying Light Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Longqing; Vasseur, Liette; Huang, Huoshui; Zeng, Zhaohua; Hu, Guiping; Liu, Xin; You, Minsheng

    2017-01-01

    Insect behaviors are often influenced by light conditions including photoperiod, light intensity, and wavelength. Understanding pest insect responses to changing light conditions may help with developing alternative strategies for pest control. Little is known about the behavioral responses of leafhoppers (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) to light conditions. The behavior of the tea green leafhopper, Empoasca onukii Matsuda, was examined when exposed to different light photoperiods or wavelengths. Observations included the frequency of locomotion and cleaning activities, and the duration of time spent searching. The results suggested that under normal photoperiod both female and male adults were generally more active in darkness (i.e., at night) than in light. In continuous darkness (DD), the locomotion and cleaning events in Period 1 (7:00-19:00) were significantly increased, when compared to the leafhoppers under normal photoperiod (LD). Leafhoppers, especially females, changed their behavioral patterns to a two day cycle under DD. Under continuous illumination (continuous quartz lamp light, yellow light at night, and green light at night), the activities of locomotion, cleaning, and searching were significantly suppressed during the night (19:00-7:00) and locomotion activities of both females and males were significantly increased during the day (7:00-19:00), suggesting a shift in circadian rhythm. Our work suggests that changes in light conditions, including photoperiod and wavelength, can influence behavioral activities of leafhoppers, potentially affecting other life history traits such as reproduction and development, and may serve as a method for leafhopper behavioral control.

  15. Biodiesel production process optimization and characterization to assess the suitability of the product for varied environmental conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eevera, T.; Rajendran, K.; Saradha, S. [Department of Biotechnology, Periyar Maniammai University, Periyar Nagar, Vallam, Thanjavur, Tamilnadu 613 403 (India)

    2009-03-15

    In this study, both edible (coconut oil, palm oil, groundnut oil, and rice bran oil) and non-edible oils (pongamia, neem and cotton seed oil) were used to optimize the biodiesel production process variables like catalyst concentration, amount of methanol required for reaction, reaction time and reaction temperature. The fuel properties like specific gravity, moisture content, refractive index, acid value, iodine number, saponification value and peroxide value were estimated. Based on the cetane number and iodine value, the methyl esters obtained from palm and coconut oils were not suitable to use as biodiesel in cold weather conditions, but for hot climate condition biodiesel obtained from the remaining oil sources is suitable. (author)

  16. Demonstration of Aerosol Property Profiling by Multiwavelength Lidar Under Varying Relative Humidity Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veselovskii, I.; Whiteman, D. N.; Kolgotin, A.; Andrews, E.; Korenskii, M.

    2009-01-01

    During the months of July-August 2007 NASA conducted a research campaign called the Tropical Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling (TC4) experiment. Vertical profiles of ozone were measured daily using an instrument known as an ozonesonde, which is attached to a weather balloon and launch to altitudes in excess of 30 km. These ozone profiles were measured over coastal Las Tablas, Panama (7.8N, 80W) and several times per week at Alajuela, Costa Rica (ION, 84W). Meteorological systems in the form of waves, detected most prominently in 100-300 in thick ozone layer in the tropical tropopause layer, occurred in 50% (Las Tablas) and 40% (Alajuela) of the soundings. These layers, associated with vertical displacements and classified as gravity waves ("GW," possibly Kelvin waves), occur with similar stricture and frequency over the Paramaribo (5.8N, 55W) and San Cristobal (0.925, 90W) sites of the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network. The gravity wave labeled layers in individual soundings correspond to cloud outflow as indicated by the tracers measured from the NASA DC-8 and other aircraft data, confirming convective initiation of equatorial waves. Layers representing quasi-horizontal displacements, referred to as Rossby waves, are robust features in soundings from 23 July to 5 August. The features associated with Rossby waves correspond to extra-tropical influence, possibly stratospheric, and sometimes to pollution transport. Comparison of Las Tablas and Alajuela ozone budgets with 1999-2007 Paramaribo and San Cristobal soundings shows that TC4 is typical of climatology for the equatorial Americas. Overall during TC4, convection and associated meteorological waves appear to dominate ozone transport in the tropical tropopause layer.

  17. Development of streamflow projections under changing climate conditions over Colorado River basin headwaters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. P. Miller

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The current drought over the Colorado River Basin has raised concerns that the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation may impose water shortages over the lower portion of the basin for the first time in history. The guidelines that determine levels of shortage are affected by relatively short-term (3 to 7 month forecasts determined by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC using the National Weather Service (NWS River Forecasting System (RFS hydrologic model. While these forecasts by the CBRFC are useful, water managers within the basin are interested in long-term projections of streamflow, particularly under changing climate conditions. In this study, a bias-corrected, statistically downscaled dataset of projected climate is used to force the NWS RFS utilized by the CBRFC to derive projections of streamflow over the Green, Gunnison, and San Juan River headwater basins located within the Colorado River Basin. This study evaluates the impact of changing climate to evapotranspiration rates and contributes to a better understanding of how hydrologic processes change under varying climate conditions. The impact to evapotranspiration rates is taken into consideration and incorporated into the development of streamflow projections over Colorado River headwater basins in this study. Additionally, the NWS RFS is modified to account for impacts to evapotranspiration due to changing temperature over the basin. Adjusting evapotranspiration demands resulted in a 6 % to 13 % average decrease in runoff over the Gunnison River Basin when compared to static evapotranspiration rates. Streamflow projections derived using projections of future climate and the NWS RFS provided by the CBRFC resulted in decreased runoff in 2 of the 3 basins considered. Over the Gunnison and San Juan River basins, a 10 % to 15 % average decrease in basin runoff is projected through the year 2099. However, over the Green River basin, a 5 % to 8

  18. The in vitro fitness cost of antimicrobial resistance in Escherichia coli varies with the growth conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Andreas; Aarestrup, Frank Møller; Olsen, John Elmerdahl

    2009-01-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of stressful growth conditions on the fitness cost of antimicrobial resistance in Escherichia coli BJ4 caused by chromosomal mutations and plasmid acquisition. The fitness cost of chromosomal streptomycin resistance increased......H and at high-salt concentrations. Strains with an impaired rpoS demonstrated a reduced fitness only during growth in a high-salt concentration. In conclusion, it was demonstrated that bacterial fitness cost in association with antimicrobial resistance generally increases under stressful growth conditions....... However, the growth potential of bacteria with antimicrobial resistances did not increase in a straightforward manner in these in vitro experiments and is therefore probably even more difficult to predict in vivo....

  19. Characterization of Transient Plasma Ignition Flame Kernel Growth for Varying Inlet Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    from Intercity Manufacturing. Without their expertise in precision machining this thesis would not have been possible. Their countless hours spent...somewhere within the combustor due to the time required to produce the required conditions, and will be travelling at near Mach 5 speeds for most...atmospheric pressure. This sudden drop in pressure creates a rarefaction wave that travels forward in the combustor. The blowdown time for a 1 meter long

  20. Detection of respiratory viruses in shelter dogs maintained under varying environmental conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francielle Liz Monteiro

    Full Text Available Abstract Three dog shelters in Rio Grande do Sul were investigated for associations between the occurrence of respiratory viruses and shelter environmental conditions. Nasal secretions randomly collected during the cold season were tested via PCR, and this data collection was followed by nucleotide sequencing of the amplicons. In shelter #1 (poor sanitary and nutritional conditions, high animal density and constant contact between dogs, 78% (58/74 of the nasal samples were positive, 35% (26/74 of which were in single infections and 44% (32/74 of which were in coinfections. Shelters #2 and #3 had satisfactory sanitary and nutritional conditions, outdoors exercise areas (#2 and animal clustering by groups (#3. In shelter #2, 9% (3/35 of the samples were positive for Canine parainfluenza virus (CPIV, and 6% (2/35 were positive for Canid herpesvirus 1 (CaHV-1. In shelter #3, 9% (7/77 of the samples were positive for Canine adenovirus type 2 (CAdV-2, and 1% (1/77 were positive for Canine distemper virus (CDV. The amplicon sequences (CPIV and CDV nucleoprotein gene; CAdV-2 E3 gene; CaHV-1 glycoprotein B gene showed 94-100% nucleotide identity with GenBank sequences. Our results demonstrate that CPIV, CAdV-2 and CDV are common in dog shelters and that their frequencies appear to be related with environmental and nutritional conditions. These results indicate the need for control/prevention measures, including vaccination and environmental management, to minimize these infections and improve dog health.

  1. The yield of eggplant depending on climate conditions and mulching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adamczewska-Sowińska Katarzyna

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The field production of eggplant in moderate climates is difficult as it depends heavily on thermal conditions. Eggplant is a species that is sensitive to low temperatures, and temperatures below 16°C constrain the growth of young plants. Other disadvantageous factors include: temperatures that are too high, water shortage and excessive soil humidity. The growth conditions for eggplant can be improved by using mulches. The purpose of the experiment was the assessment of eggplant cropping while using synthetic mulches of polyethylene foil and polypropylene textile. The research took five years (2008-2012 and on the basis of the obtained results it was possible to determine the influence of weather conditions on the yielding of this species. It was proven that eggplant cropping significantly depended on the air temperature and the amount of rainfall during the vegetation period. The highest yield was observed when the average air temperature was high and at the same time rainfall was evenly distributed throughout the vegetation season. It also turned out that the agro-technical procedure which significantly increased eggplant fruit cropping was mulching the soil with polyethylene black foil, or transparent foil, previously having applied a herbicide.

  2. Mobility of Iron-Cyanide Complexes in a Humic Topsoil under Varying Redox Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thilo Rennert

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The potentially toxic Fe-CN complexes ferricyanide, [FeIII(CN6]3−, and ferrocyanide, [FeII(CN6]4−, undergo a variety of redox processes in soil, which affect their mobility. We carried out microcosm experiments with suspensions of a humic topsoil (pH 5.3; Corg 107 g kg-1 to which we added ferricyanide (20 mg l-1. We varied the redox potential (EH from −280 to 580 mV by using O2, N2 and glucose. The decrease of EH led to decreasing concentrations of Fe-CN complexes and partial reductive dissolution of (hydrous Fe and Mn oxides. The dynamics of aqueous Fe-CN concentrations was characterized by decreasing concentrations when the pH rose and the EH dropped. We attribute these dependencies to adsorption on organic surfaces, for which such a pH/EH behavior has been shown previously. Adsorption was reversible, because when the pH and EH changed into the opposite direction, desorption occurred. This study demonstrates the possible impact of soil organic matter on the fate of Fe-CN complexes in soil.

  3. Transient response of a polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell subjected to time-varying modulating conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noorani, S.; Shamim, T. [Michigan-Dearborn Univ., Dearborn, MI (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2009-07-01

    In order for fuel cells to compete with internal combustion engines, they must have significant advantages in terms of overall efficiency, weight, packaging, safety and cost. A key requirement is its ability to operate under highly transient conditions during start-up, acceleration, and deceleration with stable performance. Therefore, a better understanding of fuel cell dynamic behaviour is needed along with better water management and distributions inside the cell. Therefore, this study investigated the effect of transient conditions on water distribution inside a polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) cell. A macroscopic single-fuel cell based, one-dimensional, isothermal mathematical model was used to study the effect of modulating cell voltage on the water distribution of anode, cathode, catalyst layers, and membrane. Compared to other existing models, this model did not rely on the non-physical assumption of the uptake curve equilibrium between the pore vapour and ionomer water in the catalyst layers. Instead, the transition between the two phases was modeled as a finite-rate equilibration process. The modulating conditions were simulated by forcing the temporal variations in fuel cell voltage. The results revealed that cell voltage modulations cause a departure in the cell behaviour from its steady behaviour, and the finite-rate equilibration between the catalyst vapour and liquid water can be a factor in determining the cell response. The cell response is also affected by the modulating frequency and amplitude. The peak cell response was observed at low frequencies. Keywords: fuel cell, water transport, dynamic behaviour, numerical simulations. 9 refs., 1 tab., 5 figs.

  4. Oral complementary medicine and alternative practitioner use varies across chronic conditions and attitudes to risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert J Adams

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Robert J Adams1, Sarah L Appleton1, Antonia Cole2, Tiffany K Gill3, Anne W Taylor3, Catherine L Hill11The Health Observatory, 2Rheumatology Unit, 3Population Research and Outcomes Unit, SA Health, The University of Adelaide Discipline of Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Woodville, AustraliaObjectives: To determine whether chronic conditions and patient factors, such as risk perception and decision-making preferences, are associated with complementary medicine and alternative practitioner use in a representative longitudinal population cohort.Participants and setting: Analysis of data from Stage 2 of the North West Adelaide Health Study of 3161 adults who attended a study clinic visit in 2004–2006. The main outcome measures were the medications brought by participants to the study clinic visit, chronic health conditions, attitudes to risk, levels of satisfaction with conventional medicine, and preferred decision-making style.Results: At least one oral complementary medicine was used by 27.9% of participants, and 7.3% were visiting alternative practitioners (naturopath, osteopath. Oral complementary medicine use was significantly associated with arthritis, osteoporosis, and mental health conditions, but not with other chronic conditions. Any pattern of complementary medicine use was generally significantly associated with female gender, age at least 45 years, patient-driven decision-making preferences (odds ratio [OR] 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08–1.77, and frequent general practitioner visits (>five per year; OR 3.62, 95% CI: 2.13–6.17. Alternative practitioner visitors were younger, with higher levels of education (diploma/trade [OR 1.88, 95% CI: 1.28–2.76], bachelor’s degree [OR 1.77, 95% CI: 1.11–2.82], income > $80,000 (OR 2.28, 95% CI: 1.26–4.11, female gender (OR 3.15, 95% CI: 2.19–4.52, joint pain not diagnosed as arthritis (OR 1.68, 95% CI: 1.17–2.41, moderate to severe depressive symptoms (OR 2.15, 95% CI

  5. Nitrous Oxide Production and Fluxes from Coastal Sediments under Varying Environmental Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziebis, W.; Wankel, S. D.; de Beer, D.; Dentinger, J.; Buchwald, C.; Charoenpong, C.

    2014-12-01

    Although coastal zones represent important contributors to the increasing levels of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O), it is still unclear which role benthic processes play and whether marine sediments represent sinks or sources for N2O, since interactions among closely associated microbial groups lead to a high degree of variability. In addition, coastal areas are extremely dynamic regions, often exposed to increased nutrient loading and conditions of depleted oxygen. We investigated benthic N2O fluxes and how environmental conditions affect N2O production in different sediments at 2 different geographical locations (German Wadden Sea, a California coastal lagoon). At each location, a total of 32 sediment cores were taken in areas that differed in sediment type, organic content and pore-water nutrient concentrations, as well as in bioturbation activity. Parallel cores were incubated under in-situ conditions, low oxygen and increased nitrate levels for 10 days. Zones of N2O production and consumption were identified in intact cores by N2O microprofiles at the beginning and end of the experiments. In a collaborative effort to determine the dominant sources of N2O, samples were taken throughout the course of the experiments for the determination of the isotopic composition of N2O (as well as nitrate, nitrite and ammonium). Our results indicate that both, nitrate addition and low oxygen conditions in the overlying water, caused an increase of subsurface N2O production in most sediments, with a high variability between different sediment types. N2O production in the sediments was accompanied by N2O consumption, reducing the fluxes to the water column. In general, organic rich sediments showed the strongest response to environmental changes with increased production and efflux of N2O into the overlying water. Bioturbation activity added to the complexity of N2O dynamics by an increase in nitrification-denitrification processes, as well as enhanced pore-water transport

  6. Oral complementary medicine and alternative practitioner use varies across chronic conditions and attitudes to risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Robert J; Appleton, Sarah L; Cole, Antonia; Gill, Tiffany K; Taylor, Anne W; Hill, Catherine L

    2010-11-08

    To determine whether chronic conditions and patient factors, such as risk perception and decision-making preferences, are associated with complementary medicine and alternative practitioner use in a representative longitudinal population cohort. Analysis of data from Stage 2 of the North West Adelaide Health Study of 3161 adults who attended a study clinic visit in 2004-2006. The main outcome measures were the medications brought by participants to the study clinic visit, chronic health conditions, attitudes to risk, levels of satisfaction with conventional medicine, and preferred decision-making style. At least one oral complementary medicine was used by 27.9% of participants, and 7.3% were visiting alternative practitioners (naturopath, osteopath). Oral complementary medicine use was significantly associated with arthritis, osteoporosis, and mental health conditions, but not with other chronic conditions. Any pattern of complementary medicine use was generally significantly associated with female gender, age at least 45 years, patient-driven decision-making preferences (odds ratio [OR] 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.77), and frequent general practitioner visits (>five per year; OR 3.62, 95% CI: 2.13-6.17). Alternative practitioner visitors were younger, with higher levels of education (diploma/trade [OR 1.88, 95% CI: 1.28-2.76], bachelor's degree [OR 1.77, 95% CI: 1.11-2.82], income >$80,000 (OR 2.28, 95% CI: 1.26-4.11), female gender (OR 3.15, 95% CI: 2.19-4.52), joint pain not diagnosed as arthritis (OR 1.68, 95% CI: 1.17-2.41), moderate to severe depressive symptoms (OR 2.15, 95% CI: 1.04-4.46), and risk-taking behavior (3.26, 1.80-5.92), or low-to-moderate risk aversion (OR 2.08, 95% CI: 1.26-4.11). Although there is widespread use of complementary medicines in the Australian community, there are differing patterns of use between those using oral complementary medicines and those using alternative practitioners.

  7. Aerodynamic performance of a vibrating piezoelectric fan under varied operational conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stafford, J; Jeffers, N

    2014-01-01

    This paper experimentally examines the bulk aerodynamic performance of a vibrating fan operating in the first mode of vibration. The influence of operating condition on the local velocity field has also been investigated to understand the flow distribution at the exit region and determine the stalling condition for vibrating fans. Fan motion has been generated and controlled using a piezoelectric ceramic attached to a stainless steel cantilever. The frequency and amplitude at resonance were 109.4 Hz and 12.5 mm, respectively. A test facility has been developed to measure the pressure-flow characteristics of the vibrating fan and simultaneously conduct local velocity field measurements using particle image velocimetry. The results demonstrate the impact of system characteristics on the local velocity field. High momentum regions generated due to the oscillating motion exist with a component direction that is tangent to the blade at maximum displacement. These high velocity zones are significantly affected by increasing impedance while flow reversal is a dominant feature at maximum pressure rise. The findings outlined provide useful information for design of thermal management solutions that may incorporate this air cooling approach.

  8. Buckling of Nonprismatic Column on Varying Elastic Foundation with Arbitrary Boundary Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad A. Ghadban

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Buckling of nonprismatic single columns with arbitrary boundary conditions resting on a nonuniform elastic foundation may be considered as the most generalized treatment of the subject. The buckling differential equation for such columns is extremely difficult to solve analytically. Thus, the authors propose a numerical approach by discretizing the column into a finite number of segments. Each segment has constants E (modulus of elasticity, I (moment of inertia, and β (subgrade stiffness. Next, an exact analytical solution is derived for each prismatic segment resting on uniform elastic foundation. These segments are then assembled in a matrix from which the critical buckling load is obtained. The derived formulation accounts for different end boundary conditions. Validation is performed by benchmarking the present results against analytical solutions found in the literature, showing excellent agreement. After validation, more examples are solved to illustrate the power and flexibility of the proposed method. Overall, the proposed method provides reasonable results, and the examples solved demonstrate the versatility of the developed approach and some of its many possible applications.

  9. Projecting climate change, drought conditions and crop productivity in Turkey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sen, B.; Topcu, S.; Türkes, M.; Warner, J.F.

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on the evaluation of regional climate model simulation for Turkey for the 21st century. A regional climate model, ICTP-RegCM3, with 20 km horizontal resolution, is used to downscale the reference and future climate scenario (IPCC-A2) simulations. Characteristics of droughts as

  10. Schema bias in source monitoring varies with encoding conditions: support for a probability-matching account.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhlmann, Beatrice G; Vaterrodt, Bianca; Bayen, Ute J

    2012-09-01

    Two experiments examined reliance on schematic knowledge in source monitoring. Based on a probability-matching account of source guessing, a schema bias will only emerge if participants do not have a representation of the source-item contingency in the study list, or if the perceived contingency is consistent with schematic expectations. Thus, the account predicts that encoding conditions that affect contingency detection also affect schema bias. In Experiment 1, the schema bias commonly found when schematic information about the sources is not provided before encoding was diminished by an intentional source-memory instruction. In Experiment 2, the depth of processing of schema-consistent and schema-inconsistent source-item pairings was manipulated. Participants consequently overestimated the occurrence of the pairing type they processed in a deep manner, and their source guessing reflected this biased contingency perception. Results support the probability-matching account of source guessing. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  11. Rimsulfuron in Soil: Effects on Microbiological Properties under Varying Soil Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ljiljana Radivojević

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of rimsulfuron a sulfonylurea herbicide on the growth and activity of soil microorganisms under laboratory conditions was investigated in two soils. The application rates were: 0.2, 2.0 and 20.0 mg a.i kg-1 soil. The lowest concentration tested was the label rate (0.2 mg a.i kg-1, and the other two were ten and hundred timeshigher. No adverse effects on microbiological processes were observed for the label rate. Decrease in microbial biomass carbon, dehydrogenase activity, fungi and bacteria in comparison with untreated control, were found at higher rates. The magnitude of these effects were generally slight and transitory.

  12. IR radiation characteristics of rocket exhaust plumes under varying motor operating conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinglin NIU

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The infrared (IR irradiance signature from rocket motor exhaust plumes is closely related to motor type, propellant composition, burn time, rocket geometry, chamber parameters and flight conditions. In this paper, an infrared signature analysis tool (IRSAT was developed to understand the spectral characteristics of exhaust plumes in detail. Through a finite volume technique, flow field properties were obtained through the solution of axisymmetric Navier-Stokes equations with the Reynolds-averaged approach. A refined 13-species, 30-reaction chemistry scheme was used for combustion effects and a k-ε-Rt turbulence model for entrainment effects. Using flowfield properties as input data, the spectrum was integrated with a line of sight (LOS method based on a single line group (SLG model with Curtis-Godson approximation. The model correctly predicted spectral distribution in the wavelengths of 1.50–5.50 μm and had good agreement for its location with imaging spectrometer data. The IRSAT was then applied to discuss the effects of three operating conditions on IR signatures: (a afterburning; (b chamber pressure from ignition to cutoff; and (c minor changes in the ratio of hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene (HTPB binder to ammonium perchlorate (AP oxidizer in propellant. Results show that afterburning effects can increase the size and shape of radiance images with enhancement of radiation intensity up to 40%. Also, the total IR irradiance in different bands can be characterized by a non-dimensional chamber pressure trace in which the maximum discrepancy is less than 13% during ignition and engine cutoff. An increase of chamber pressure can lead to more distinct diamonds, whose distance intervals are extended, and the position of the first diamond moving backwards. In addition, an increase in HTPB/AP causes a significant jump in spectral intensity. The incremental rates of radiance intensity integrated in each band are linear with the increase of HTPB

  13. Hydroxyisohexyl 3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde (lyral) in patch test preparations under varied storage conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Dathan; Hamann, Carsten R; Zimerson, Erik; Bruze, Magnus

    2013-01-01

    The common practice of preparing patch tests in advance has recently been called into question by researchers. It has been established that fragrance compounds are volatile and their testing efficacy may be affected by storage conditions and preparation. Allergens in fragrance mix I rapidly decrease in concentration after preapplication to test chambers. This study aimed to investigate the volatility of hydroxyisohexyl 3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde (HICC) in petrolatum when stored in test chambers and to explore the correlation between vapor pressure and allergen loss in petrolatum during preparation and storage. Standardized HICC in petrolatum was prepared and stored in IQ Chambers and Finn Chambers with covers at 5°C, 25°C, and 35°C, and concentration was analyzed at intervals for up to 9 days using gel permeation chromatography. Changes in HICC concentrations were not statistically significant at 8 hours at 5°C, 25°C, and 35°C. After 9 days, HICC concentrations were found to fall approximately 30% when stored at 35°C, 10% at 25°C, and less than 5% at 5°C. There was no significant difference between IQ and Finn chambers. Hydroxyisohexyl 3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde concentrations are more stable in petrolatum than many other studied fragrance allergens, but HICC is still at risk for decreasing concentration when exposed to ambient air or heat for prolonged periods.

  14. Vibration Analysis of a Tire in Ground Contact under Varied Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karakus Murat

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The effect of three different factors, which are inflation pressure, vertical load and coefficient of friction on the natural frequencies of a tire (175/70 R13 has been studied. A three dimensional tire model is constructed, using four different material properties and parts in the tire. Mechanical properties of the composite parts are evaluated. After investigating the free vibration, contact analysis is carried out. A concrete block and the tire are modelled together, using three different coefficients of friction. Experiments are run under certain conditions to check the accuracy of the numerical model. The natural frequencies are measured to describe free vibration and vibration of the tire contacted by ground, using a damping monitoring method. It is seen, that experimental and numerical results are in good agreement. On the other hand, investigating the impact of three different factors together is quite difficult on the natural frequencies. When some of these factors are assumed to be constant and the variables are taken one by one, it is easier to assess the effects.

  15. Toxicity of pentachlorophenol to aquatic organisms under naturally varying and controlled environmental conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hedtke, S.F.; West, C.W.; Allen, K.N.; Norberg-King, T.J.; Mount, D.I.

    1986-06-01

    The toxicity of pentachlorophenol (PCP) was determined in the laboratory for 11 aquatic species. Tests were conducted seasonally in ambient Mississippi River water and under controlled conditions in Lake Superior water. Fifty-one acute toxicity tests were conducted, with LC50 values ranging from 85 micrograms/L for the white sucker Catastomus commersoni during the summer to greater than 7770 micrograms/L for the isopod Asellus racovitzai during the winter. The effect of PCP on growth and/or reproduction was determined for seven species. The most sensitive chronically exposed organisms were the cladoceran Ceriodaphnia reticulata and the snail Physa gyrina. The greatest variation in toxicity was due to species sensitivity. Within a given, season there was as much as a 40-fold difference in LC50 values between species. For any one species, the maximum variation in LC50 between seasons was approximately 14-fold. There were also substantial differences in acute-chronic relationships, with acute/chronic ratios ranging from greater than 37 for C. reticulata to 1 for Simocephalus vetulus. It is suggested that the composition of the aquatic community should be the most important consideration in estimating the potential environmental effects of PCP.

  16. Comparison of the kinetics of different Markov models for ligand binding under varying conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martini, Johannes W. R.; Habeck, Michael

    2015-01-01

    We recently derived a Markov model for macromolecular ligand binding dynamics from few physical assumptions and showed that its stationary distribution is the grand canonical ensemble [J. W. R. Martini, M. Habeck, and M. Schlather, J. Math. Chem. 52, 665 (2014)]. The transition probabilities of the proposed Markov process define a particular Glauber dynamics and have some similarity to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Here, we illustrate that this model is the stochastic analog of (pseudo) rate equations and the corresponding system of differential equations. Moreover, it can be viewed as a limiting case of general stochastic simulations of chemical kinetics. Thus, the model links stochastic and deterministic approaches as well as kinetics and equilibrium described by the grand canonical ensemble. We demonstrate that the family of transition matrices of our model, parameterized by temperature and ligand activity, generates ligand binding kinetics that respond to changes in these parameters in a qualitatively similar way as experimentally observed kinetics. In contrast, neither the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm nor the Glauber heat bath reflects changes in the external conditions correctly. Both converge rapidly to the stationary distribution, which is advantageous when the major interest is in the equilibrium state, but fail to describe the kinetics of ligand binding realistically. To simulate cellular processes that involve the reversible stochastic binding of multiple factors, our pseudo rate equation model should therefore be preferred to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the Glauber heat bath, if the stationary distribution is not of only interest

  17. Comparison of the kinetics of different Markov models for ligand binding under varying conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martini, Johannes W. R., E-mail: jmartin2@gwdg.de [Max Planck Institute for Developmental Biology, Tübingen (Germany); Felix Bernstein Institute for Mathematical Statistics in the Biosciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen (Germany); Habeck, Michael, E-mail: mhabeck@gwdg.de [Felix Bernstein Institute for Mathematical Statistics in the Biosciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen (Germany); Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Göttingen (Germany)

    2015-03-07

    We recently derived a Markov model for macromolecular ligand binding dynamics from few physical assumptions and showed that its stationary distribution is the grand canonical ensemble [J. W. R. Martini, M. Habeck, and M. Schlather, J. Math. Chem. 52, 665 (2014)]. The transition probabilities of the proposed Markov process define a particular Glauber dynamics and have some similarity to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Here, we illustrate that this model is the stochastic analog of (pseudo) rate equations and the corresponding system of differential equations. Moreover, it can be viewed as a limiting case of general stochastic simulations of chemical kinetics. Thus, the model links stochastic and deterministic approaches as well as kinetics and equilibrium described by the grand canonical ensemble. We demonstrate that the family of transition matrices of our model, parameterized by temperature and ligand activity, generates ligand binding kinetics that respond to changes in these parameters in a qualitatively similar way as experimentally observed kinetics. In contrast, neither the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm nor the Glauber heat bath reflects changes in the external conditions correctly. Both converge rapidly to the stationary distribution, which is advantageous when the major interest is in the equilibrium state, but fail to describe the kinetics of ligand binding realistically. To simulate cellular processes that involve the reversible stochastic binding of multiple factors, our pseudo rate equation model should therefore be preferred to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the Glauber heat bath, if the stationary distribution is not of only interest.

  18. Modeling Quantum Dot Nanoparticle Fate and Transport in Saturated Porous Media under Varying Flow Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, M. D.; Wang, Y.; Englehart, J.; Pennell, K. D.; Abriola, L. M.

    2010-12-01

    As manufactured nanomaterials become more prevalent in commercial and industrial applications, the development of mathematical models capable of predicting nanomaterial transport and retention in subsurface systems is crucial to assessing their fate and distribution in the environment. A systematic modeling approach based on a modification of clean-bed filtration theory was undertaken to elucidate mechanisms governing the transport and deposition behavior of quantum dots in saturated quartz sand as a function of grain size and flow velocity. The traditional deposition governing equation, which assumes irreversible attachment by a first-order rate (katt), was modified to include a maximum or limiting retention capacity (Smax) and first-order detachment of particles from the solid phase (kdet). Quantum dot mobility experiments were performed in columns packed with three size fractions of Ottawa sand (d50 = 125, 165, and 335 μm) at two different pore-water velocities (0.8 m/d and 7.6 m/d). The CdSe quantum dots in a CdZnS shell and polyacrylic acid coating were negatively charged (zeta potential measured ca. -35 mV) with a hydrodynamic diameter of approximately 30 nm. Fitted values of katt, Smax, and kdet were obtained for each transport and deposition experiment through the implementation of a nonlinear least-squares routine developed to fit the model to experimental breakthrough and retention data via multivariate optimization. Fitted attachment rates and retention capacities increased exponentially with decreasing grain size at both flow rates, while no discernable trend was apparent for the fitted detachment rates. Maximum retention capacity values were plotted against a normalized mass flux expression, which accounts for flow conditions and grain size. A power function fit to the data yielded a dependence that was consistent with a previous study undertaken with fullerene nanoparticles.

  19. The potential for cold climate conditions and permafrost in Forsmark in the next 60 000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Zhang, Qiong; Hartikainen, Juha

    2013-05-01

    This report presents results of a study devoted to extend the current knowledge of the climate in Sweden in the next ∼60,000 years (60 ka). Specifically, the potential of cold climate and permafrost development in south-central Sweden, and in the Forsmark region, over this time horizon was investigated. The climate system is an interactive system consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryo sphere, the land surface and the biosphere, forced or influenced by various external forcing mechanisms, of which the most important is the Sun. Also the direct effect of human activities on the climate system is considered an external forcing. The latitudinal and seasonal distribution of incoming solar radiation (insolation) varies on millennial time scales due to variations in the Earth's orbit and axial tilt. These variations, together with variations in the atmospheric CO 2 concentration, are viewed as two main factors in determining the climate variation between interglacial (warmer) and glacial (colder) climates. Summer insolation at high northern latitudes is at a minimum 17 ka and 54 ka after present (AP). These periods were therefore identified as potential future periods of cold climate conditions in high northern latitudes in general and in south-central Sweden in particular. Due to human emissions of carbon to the atmosphere, the atmospheric CO 2 concentration is currently 392 ppmv (2011 AD), a substantial increase as compared to the range of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of 180-295 ppmv found in ice cores for the last 400 ka. The future atmospheric CO 2 concentration is determined by i) future human carbon emissions to the atmosphere, ii) possible emissions due to feedbacks in the climate system, and iii) by the global carbon cycle. To investigate the potential of cold climate conditions in south-central Sweden in the next 60 ka the future air temperature in Forsmark was estimated based on simulations with an Earth system model

  20. Icing Conditions Over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulygina, O.; Arzhanova, N.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2013-12-01

    Climate of the Russian Federation for the national territory. This Reference Book addresses the current state of these weather phenomena. However, the ongoing and projected humidity changes in the high latitudes will strongly affect the circum-polar area (land and ocean) and impact the frequency and intensity of these potentially dangerous weather phenomena across the entire extratropical land area. Therefore the goal of the present study is to quantify icing conditions over the northern Eurasia. Our analysis includes data of 958 Russian stations from 1977 to 2012. Regional analysis of gololed characteristics was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. The area-averaging technique using station values converted to anomalies with respect to a common reference period (in this study, from 1977 to 2012). Anomalies were arithmetically averaged first within 1N x 2E grid cells and thereafter by a weighted average value derived over the quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. This approach provides a more uniform spatial field for averaging.

  1. Exergy characteristics of a ceiling-type residential air conditioning system operating under different climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ozbek, Arif [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Ceyhan Engineering Faculty, Cukurova University, Adana (Turkmenistan)

    2016-11-15

    In this study an energy and exergy analysis of a Ceiling-type residential air conditioning (CTRAC) system operating under different climatic conditions have been investigated for provinces within the different geographic regions of Turkey. Primarily, the hourly cooling load capacities of a sample building (Q{sub evap}) during the months of April, May, June, July, August and September were determined. The hourly total heat gain of the sample building was determined using the Hourly analysis program (HAP). The Coefficient of performance (COP), exergy efficiency (η) and exergy destruction (Ex{sub dest}) values for the whole system and for each component were obtained. The results showed that lower atmospheric temperature (T{sub atm}) influenced the performance of the system and each of its components.

  2. The potential for cold climate conditions and permafrost in Forsmark in the next 60 000 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove [Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering, Stockholm (Sweden); Zhang, Qiong [Dept. of Meteorology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden); Hartikainen, Juha [School of Engineering, Aalto Univ., Aalto (Finland)

    2013-05-15

    This report presents results of a study devoted to extend the current knowledge of the climate in Sweden in the next {approx}60,000 years (60 ka). Specifically, the potential of cold climate and permafrost development in south-central Sweden, and in the Forsmark region, over this time horizon was investigated. The climate system is an interactive system consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryo sphere, the land surface and the biosphere, forced or influenced by various external forcing mechanisms, of which the most important is the Sun. Also the direct effect of human activities on the climate system is considered an external forcing. The latitudinal and seasonal distribution of incoming solar radiation (insolation) varies on millennial time scales due to variations in the Earth's orbit and axial tilt. These variations, together with variations in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, are viewed as two main factors in determining the climate variation between interglacial (warmer) and glacial (colder) climates. Summer insolation at high northern latitudes is at a minimum 17 ka and 54 ka after present (AP). These periods were therefore identified as potential future periods of cold climate conditions in high northern latitudes in general and in south-central Sweden in particular. Due to human emissions of carbon to the atmosphere, the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is currently 392 ppmv (2011 AD), a substantial increase as compared to the range of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations of 180-295 ppmv found in ice cores for the last 400 ka. The future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is determined by i) future human carbon emissions to the atmosphere, ii) possible emissions due to feedbacks in the climate system, and iii) by the global carbon cycle. To investigate the potential of cold climate conditions in south-central Sweden in the next 60 ka the future air temperature in Forsmark was estimated based on

  3. Icing conditions over Northern Eurasia in changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulygina, Olga N; Arzhanova, Natalia M; Groisman, Pavel Ya

    2015-01-01

    Icing conditions, particularly in combination with wind, affect greatly the operation of overhead communication and transmission lines causing serious failures, which result in tremendous economic damage. Icing formation is dangerous to agriculture, forestry, high seas fishery, for land and off coast man-made infrastructure. Quantitative icing characteristics such as weight, thickness, and duration are very important for the economy and human wellbeing when their maximum values exceed certain thresholds. Russian meteorological stations perform both visual and instrumental monitoring of icing deposits. Visual monitoring is ocular estimation of the type and intensity of icing and the date of ice appearance and disappearance. Instrumental monitoring is performed by ice accretion indicator that in addition to the type, intensity and duration of ice deposits reports also their weight and size. We used observations at 958 Russian stations for the period 1977–2013 to analyze changes in the ice formation frequency at individual meteorological stations and on the territory of quasi-homogeneous climatic regions in Russia. It was found that hoar frosts are observed in most parts of Russia, but icing only occurs in European Russia and the Far East. On the Arctic coast of Russia, this phenomenon can even be observed in summer months. Statistically significant decreasing trends in occurrence of icing and hoar frost events are found over most of Russia. An increasing trend in icing weights (IWs) was found in the Atlantic Arctic region in autumn. Statistically significant large negative trends in IWs were found in the Pacific Arctic in winter and spring. (letter)

  4. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David; Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko; Rhen, Ingvar

    2010-12-01

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  5. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different climate conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Forsmark site during temperate conditions; i.e. from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 12,000 AD. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then in an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional', make use of continuous porous medium (CPM), equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) and discrete fracture network (DFN) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  6. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  7. Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

    2015-01-01

    The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

  8. Varying the agglomeration position of particles in a micro-channel using Acoustic Radiation Force beyond the resonance condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dron, Olivier; Aider, Jean-Luc

    2013-09-01

    It is well-known that particles can be focused at mid-height of a micro-channel using Acoustic Radiation Force (ARF) tuned at the resonance frequency (h=λ/2). The resonance condition is a strong limitation to the use of acoustophoresis (particles manipulation using acoustic force) in many applications. In this study we show that it is possible to focus the particles anywhere along the height of a micro-channel just by varying the acoustic frequency, in contradiction with the resonance condition. This result has been thoroughly checked experimentally. The different physical properties as well as wall materials have been changed. The wall materials is finally the only critical parameters. One of the specificity of the micro-channel is the thickness of the carrier and reflector layer. A preliminary analysis of the experimental results suggests that the acoustic focusing beyond the classic resonance condition can be explained in the framework of the multilayered resonator proposed by Hill [1]. Nevertheless, further numerical studies are needed in order to confirm and fully understand how the acoustic pressure node can be moved over the entire height of the micro channel by varying the acoustic frequency. Despite some uncertainties about the origin of the phenomenon, it is robust and can be used for improved acoustic sorting or manipulation of particles or biological cells in confined set-ups. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Seasonal variations of Saanen goat milk composition and the impact of climatic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kljajevic, Nemanja V; Tomasevic, Igor B; Miloradovic, Zorana N; Nedeljkovic, Aleksandar; Miocinovic, Jelena B; Jovanovic, Snezana T

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this research was to investigate the effect of climatic conditions and their impact on seasonal variations of physico-chemical characteristics of Saanen goat milk produced over a period of 4 years. Lactation period (early, mid and late) and year were considered as factors that influence physico-chemical composition of milk. Pearson's coefficient of correlation was calculated between the physico-chemical characteristics of milk (fat, proteins, lactose, non-fat dry matter, density, freezing point, pH, titrable acidity) and climatic condition parameters (air temperature, temperature humidity index-THI, solar radiation duration, relative humidity). Results showed that all physico-chemical characteristics of Saanen goat milk varied significantly throughout the lactation period and years. The decrease of fat, protein, non-fat dry matter and lactose content in goat milk during the mid-lactation period was more pronounced than was previously reported in the literature. The highest values for these characteristics were recorded in the late lactation period. Observed variations were explained by negative correlation between THI and the physico-chemical characteristics of Saanen goat milk. This indicated that Saanen goats were very prone to heat stress, which implied the decrease of physico-chemical characteristics during hot summers.

  10. Urban tree species show the same hydraulic response to vapor pressure deficit across varying tree size and environmental conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lixin Chen

    Full Text Available The functional convergence of tree transpiration has rarely been tested for tree species growing under urban conditions even though it is of significance to elucidate the relationship between functional convergence and species differences of urban trees for establishing sustainable urban forests in the context of forest water relations.We measured sap flux of four urban tree species including Cedrus deodara, Zelkova schneideriana, Euonymus bungeanus and Metasequoia glyptostroboides in an urban park by using thermal dissipation probes (TDP. The concurrent microclimate conditions and soil moisture content were also measured. Our objectives were to examine 1 the influence of tree species and size on transpiration, and 2 the hydraulic control of urban trees under different environmental conditions over the transpiration in response to VPD as represented by canopy conductance. The results showed that the functional convergence between tree diameter at breast height (DBH and tree canopy transpiration amount (E(c was not reliable to predict stand transpiration and there were species differences within same DBH class. Species differed in transpiration patterns to seasonal weather progression and soil water stress as a result of varied sensitivity to water availability. Species differences were also found in their potential maximum transpiration rate and reaction to light. However, a same theoretical hydraulic relationship between G(c at VPD = 1 kPa (G(cref and the G(c sensitivity to VPD (-dG(c/dlnVPD across studied species as well as under contrasting soil water and R(s conditions in the urban area.We concluded that urban trees show the same hydraulic regulation over response to VPD across varying tree size and environmental conditions and thus tree transpiration could be predicted with appropriate assessment of G(cref.

  11. Urban tree species show the same hydraulic response to vapor pressure deficit across varying tree size and environmental conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lixin; Zhang, Zhiqiang; Ewers, Brent E

    2012-01-01

    The functional convergence of tree transpiration has rarely been tested for tree species growing under urban conditions even though it is of significance to elucidate the relationship between functional convergence and species differences of urban trees for establishing sustainable urban forests in the context of forest water relations. We measured sap flux of four urban tree species including Cedrus deodara, Zelkova schneideriana, Euonymus bungeanus and Metasequoia glyptostroboides in an urban park by using thermal dissipation probes (TDP). The concurrent microclimate conditions and soil moisture content were also measured. Our objectives were to examine 1) the influence of tree species and size on transpiration, and 2) the hydraulic control of urban trees under different environmental conditions over the transpiration in response to VPD as represented by canopy conductance. The results showed that the functional convergence between tree diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree canopy transpiration amount (E(c)) was not reliable to predict stand transpiration and there were species differences within same DBH class. Species differed in transpiration patterns to seasonal weather progression and soil water stress as a result of varied sensitivity to water availability. Species differences were also found in their potential maximum transpiration rate and reaction to light. However, a same theoretical hydraulic relationship between G(c) at VPD = 1 kPa (G(cref)) and the G(c) sensitivity to VPD (-dG(c)/dlnVPD) across studied species as well as under contrasting soil water and R(s) conditions in the urban area. We concluded that urban trees show the same hydraulic regulation over response to VPD across varying tree size and environmental conditions and thus tree transpiration could be predicted with appropriate assessment of G(cref).

  12. Comparison of creep behavior under varying load/temperature conditions between Hastelloy XR alloys with different boron content levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuji, Hirokazu; Nakajima, Hajime; Shindo, Masami; Tanabe, Tatsuhiko; Nakasone, Yuji.

    1996-01-01

    In the design of the high-temperature components, it is often required to predict the creep rupture life under the conditions in which the stress and/or temperature may vary by using the data obtained with the constant load and temperature creep rupture tests. Some conventional creep damage rules have been proposed to meet the above-mentioned requirement. Currently only limited data are available on the behavior of Hastelloy XR, which is a developed alloy as the structural material for high-temperature components of the High-Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR), under varying stress and/or temperature creep conditions. Hence a series of constant load and temperature creep rupture tests as well as varying load and temperature creep rupture tests was carried out on two kinds of Hastelloy XR alloys whose boron content levels are different, i.e., below 10 and 60 mass ppm. The life fraction rule completely fails in the prediction of the creep rupture life of Hastelloy XR with 60 mass ppm boron under varying load and temperature conditions though the rule shows good applicability for Hastelloy XR with below 10 mass ppm boron. The change of boron content level of the material during the tests is the most probable source of impairing the applicability of the life fraction rule to Hastelloy XR whose boron content level is 60 mass ppm. The modified life fraction rule has been proposed based on the dependence of the creep rupture strength on the boron content level of the alloy. The modified rule successfully predicts the creep rupture life under the two stage creep test conditions from 1000 to 900degC. The trend observed in the two stage creep tests from 900 to 1000degC can be qualitatively explained by the mechanism that the oxide film which is formed during the prior exposure to 900degC plays the role of the protective barrier against the boron dissipation into the environment. (J.P.N.)

  13. Climate policy in developing countries and conditional transfers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruebbelke, Dirk T.G.

    2006-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role international transfers may play in international climate policy in consideration of the policy's ancillary benefits, such as air quality improvements. Ancillary benefits are especially important in many developing countries, while climate protection benefits or primary benefits play a minor role on the political agenda of these countries. In contrast, industrialized countries have a strong interest in combating climate change. These often neglected asymmetries between the developing and industrialized world affect the impacts of transfers. Interestingly, as we will show, the cost differentials between different environmental technologies among countries are the crucial prerequisite for the functioning of a transfer scheme and not the cost differentials in the execution of climate policy. This result has been overlooked by standard pure public good approaches

  14. Uncertainties in extreme precipitation under climate change conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia

    of adaptation strategies, but these changes are subject to uncertainties. The focus of this PhD thesis is the quantification of uncertainties in changes in extreme precipitation. It addresses two of the main sources of uncertainty in climate change impact studies: regional climate models (RCMs) and statistical...... downscaling methods (SDMs). RCMs provide information on climate change at the regional scale. SDMs are used to bias-correct and downscale the outputs of the RCMs to the local scale of interest in adaptation strategies. In the first part of the study, a multi-model ensemble of RCMs from the European ENSEMBLES...... project was used to quantify the uncertainty in RCM projections over Denmark. Three aspects of the RCMs relevant for the uncertainty quantification were first identified and investigated. These are: the interdependency of the RCMs; the performance in current climate; and the change in the performance...

  15. Differential response of carbon fluxes to climate in three peatland ecosystems that vary in the presence and stability of permafrost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euskirchen, Eugenie S; Edgar, C.W.; Turetsky, M.R.; Waldrop, Mark P.; Harden, Jennifer W.

    2016-01-01

    Changes in vegetation and soil properties following permafrost degradation and thermokarst development in peatlands may cause changes in net carbon storage. To better understand these dynamics, we established three sites in Alaska that vary in permafrost regime, including a black spruce peat plateau forest with stable permafrost, an internal collapse scar bog formed as a result of thermokarst, and a rich fen without permafrost. Measurements include year-round eddy covariance estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2), water, and energy fluxes, associated environmental variables, and methane (CH4) fluxes at the collapse scar bog. The ecosystems all acted as net sinks of CO2 in 2011 and 2012, when air temperature and precipitation remained near long-term means. In 2013, under a late snowmelt and late leaf out followed by a hot, dry summer, the permafrost forest and collapse scar bog were sources of CO2. In this same year, CO2 uptake in the fen increased, largely because summer inundation from groundwater inputs suppressed ecosystem respiration. CO2 exchange in the permafrost forest and collapse scar bog was sensitive to warm air temperatures, with 0.5 g C m−2 lost each day when maximum air temperature was very warm (≥29°C). The bog lost 4981 ± 300 mg CH4 m−2 between April and September 2013, indicating that this ecosystem acted as a significant source of both CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere in 2013. These results suggest that boreal peatland responses to warming and drying, both of which are expected to occur in a changing climate, will depend on permafrost regime.

  16. Food Security Under Shifting Economic, Demographic, and Climatic Conditions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, R. L.

    2013-12-01

    Global demand for food, feed, and fuel will continue to rise in a more populous and affluent world. Meeting this demand in the future will become increasingly challenging with global climate change; when production shocks stemming from climate variability are added to the new mean climate state, food markets could become more volatile. This talk will focus on the interacting market effects of demand and supply for major food commodities, with an eye on climate-related supply trends and shocks. Lessons from historical patterns of climate variability (e.g., ENSO and its global teleconnections) will be used to infer potential food security outcomes in the event of abrupt changes in the mean climate state. Domestic food and trade policy responses to crop output and price volatility in key producing and consuming nations, such as export bans and import tariffs, will be discussed as a potentially major destabilizing force, underscoring the important influence of uncertainty in achieving--or failing to achieve--food security.

  17. Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B. J.; van Minnen, J. G.

    2012-04-01

    Ecosystem responses to a changing climate and human-induced climate forcings (e.g. deforestation) might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial climate response. Feedbacks may include the biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical feedbacks (e.g. albedo and hydrological cycle). Here, we first review the most important feedbacks and put them into the context of a conceptual framework, including the major processes and interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climate. We explore potential regional feedbacks in four hot spots with pronounced potential changes in land-use/management and local climate: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, the relevant human-induced climate forcings and feedbacks were identified based on published literature. When evapotranspiration is limited by a soil water deficit, heat waves in Europe are amplified (positive soil moisture-temperature feedback). Drought events in the Amazon lead to further rainfall reduction when water recycling processes are affected (positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback). In SSA, the adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems can modulate the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback. In contrast, future water shortage in South and Southeast Asia can turn the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback into a positive one. Further research including advanced modeling strategies is needed to isolate the dominant processes affecting the strength and sign of the feedbacks. In addition, the socio-economic dimension needs to be considered in the ecosystems-climate system to include the essential role of human decisions on land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). In this context, enhanced integration between Earth System (ES) and Integrated Assessment (IA) modeling communities is strongly recommended.

  18. Climate change impact on shallow groundwater conditions in Hungary: Conclusions from a regional modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovács, Attila; Marton, Annamária; Tóth, György; Szöcs, Teodóra

    2016-04-01

    A quantitative methodology has been developed for the calculation of groundwater table based on measured and simulated climate parameters. The aim of the study was to develop a toolset which can be used for the calculation of shallow groundwater conditions for various climate scenarios. This was done with the goal of facilitating the assessment of climate impact and vulnerability of shallow groundwater resources. The simulated groundwater table distributions are representative of groundwater conditions at the regional scale. The introduced methodology is valid for modelling purposes at various scales and thus represents a versatile tool for the assessment of climate vulnerability of shallow groundwater bodies. The calculation modules include the following: 1. A toolset to calculate climate zonation from climate parameter grids, 2. Delineation of recharge zones (Hydrological Response Units, HRUs) based on geology, landuse and slope conditions, 3. Calculation of percolation (recharge) rates using 1D analytical hydrological models, 4. Simulation of the groundwater table using numerical groundwater flow models. The applied methodology provides a quantitative link between climate conditions and shallow groundwater conditions, and thus can be used for assessing climate impacts. The climate data source applied in our calculation comprised interpolated daily climate data of the Central European CARPATCLIM database. Climate zones were determined making use of the Thorntwaite climate zonation scheme. Recharge zones (HRUs) were determined based on surface geology, landuse and slope conditions. The HELP hydrological model was used for the calculation of 1D water balance for hydrological response units. The MODFLOW numerical groundwater modelling code was used for the calculation of the water table. The developed methodology was demonstrated through the simulation of regional groundwater table using spatially averaged climate data and hydrogeological properties for various time

  19. Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, D.; Person, M.; Daannen, R.; Locke, S.; Dahlstrom, D.; Zabielski, V.; Winter, T.C.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Wright, H.; Ito, E.; Nieber, J.L.; Gutowski, W.J.

    2006-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge

  20. Climate conditions, and changes, affect microalgae communities… should we worry?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimenez Papiol, Gemma

    2018-03-01

    Microalgae play a pivotal role in the regulation of Earth's climate and its cycles, but are also affected by climate change, mainly by changes in temperature, light, ocean acidification, water stratification, and precipitation-induced nutrient inputs. The changes and impacts on microalgae communities are difficult to study, predict, and manage, but there is no doubt that there will be changes. These changes will have impacts beyond microalgae communities, and many of them will be negative. Some actions are currently ongoing for the mitigation of some of the negative impacts, such as harmful algal blooms and water quality, but global efforts for reducing CO 2 emissions, temperature rises, and ocean acidification are paramount for reducing the impact of climate change on microalgae communities, and eventually, on human well-being. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:181-184. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

  1. Productive and qualitative evaluation of onion cultivars under agro-climatic conditions of faisalabad

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mushtaq, S.; Amjad, M.; Ziaf, K.; Cheema, K.L.

    2013-01-01

    Onion varieties are very specific in their photoperiod and vernalization requirements and therefore vary for yield, yield related traits and bolting in a specific agro-climate. Therefore, performance of nineteen onion varieties for these traits was evaluated at Vegetable Research Institute, Faisalabad. The maximum bolting percentage was recorded in Desi Red (46.67%) that indicates less vernalization requirement of this variety while it was the minimum in Faisal Red and VRIO-6 (13.33%). The cultivar Phulkara produced larger size bulbs (73.22 mm diameter) as well as highest yield (21.90 t ha/sup -1/) and bulb to neck diameter ratio (6.75). Similarly, minimum weight loss during curing was observed in Desi Red (4.64%), Pusa Red (4.76%) and Phulkara (4.83%), indicating higher dry matter contents while maximum weight loss (6%) was recorded in VRIO-6. Overall results revealed that both Phulkara and Desi Red are excellent for processing while Dark Red for cooking purpose under agro-climatic conditions of Faisalabad. (author)

  2. Climatic condition of Calabar as typified by some meteorological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study aims at analysing some meteorological data collected by the meteorological department of the Margaret Ekpo International Airport, Calabar between 1985 and 2003. The main objectives were to provide average figures and curves of Calabar climate, and to identify possible trends since 1985. Results show that ...

  3. Varying geospatial analyses to assess climate risk and adaptive capacity in a hotter, drier Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, E.; Reyes, J. J.; Steele, C. M.; Rango, A.

    2017-12-01

    Assessing vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate variability and change is vital in securing food systems and sustaining rural livelihoods. Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners rely on science-based, decision-relevant, and localized information to maintain production, ecological viability, and economic returns. This contribution synthesizes a collection of research on the future of agricultural production in the American Southwest (SW). Research was based on a variety of geospatial methodologies and datasets to assess the vulnerability of rangelands and livestock, field crops, specialty crops, and forests in the SW to climate-risk and change. This collection emerged from the development of regional vulnerability assessments for agricultural climate-risk by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hub Network, established to deliver science-based information and technologies to enable climate-informed decision-making. Authors defined vulnerability differently based on their agricultural system of interest, although each primarily focuses on biophysical systems. We found that an inconsistent framework for vulnerability and climate risk was necessary to adequately capture the diversity, variability, and heterogeneity of SW landscapes, peoples, and agriculture. Through the diversity of research questions and methodologies, this collection of articles provides valuable information on various aspects of SW vulnerability. All articles relied on geographic information systems technology, with highly variable levels of complexity. Agricultural articles used National Agricultural Statistics Service data, either as tabular county level summaries or through the CropScape cropland raster datasets. Most relied on modeled historic and future climate information, but with differing assumptions regarding spatial resolution and temporal framework. We assert that it is essential to evaluate climate risk using a variety of complementary methodologies and

  4. Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio

    2015-01-01

    Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before

  5. Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J.; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio

    2015-01-01

    Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before

  6. On the role of model depth and hydraulic properties for groundwater flow modelling during glacial climate conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidstrand, Patrik; Rhen, Ingvar

    2011-03-01

    A common assumption in regional groundwater flow simulations of periods with glacial climate conditions is that the salinity at the bottom boundary of the model domain is stable (constant over time). This assumption is partly based on the general fact that water density increases with increasing salinity, but also supported by measurements, e.g. the mobile (fracture water) and immobile (porewater) salinity typically increase with depth, whereas the conductive fracture frequency and fracture transmissivity often decrease with depth. Plausibly, the depth to stable hydrogeological conditions varies between sites, and the question studied here is whether hydrogeological disturbances could occur at 2-4 km depth during glacial climate conditions. With regard to the results of SDM-Site and SR-Site, the hydrogeological conditions at repository depth indicate less groundwater flow during glacial climate conditions at Forsmark than at Laxemar. For this reason, this study uses the Laxemar site as a hypothetical site of potentially more permeable conditions, hence more readily affected during glacial climate conditions. A series of flow simulations conducted with DarcyTools in an approximately 5 km deep, super-regional model domain centred on the Laxemar site are reported. The studied cases (model variants) represent a variety of different property specifications along with variations in initial conditions concerning salinity. The model domain is subjected to a transient top boundary representing an advancing ice sheet margin. The behaviour of the grid cell pressure, Darcy flux and mobile salinity is monitored at four different elevations along a vertical scan line through the centre of the suggested location for a KBS-3 repository at Laxemar. The studied monitoring points are located at -0.5 km, -2.5 km, -3.0 km, and -3.5 km. These elevations are chosen with the objective to study the range of hydrogeological disturbance that could occur at 2-4 km depth. The flow model is run

  7. On the role of model depth and hydraulic properties for groundwater flow modelling during glacial climate conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB (Sweden))

    2011-03-15

    A common assumption in regional groundwater flow simulations of periods with glacial climate conditions is that the salinity at the bottom boundary of the model domain is stable (constant over time). This assumption is partly based on the general fact that water density increases with increasing salinity, but also supported by measurements, e.g. the mobile (fracture water) and immobile (porewater) salinity typically increase with depth, whereas the conductive fracture frequency and fracture transmissivity often decrease with depth. Plausibly, the depth to stable hydrogeological conditions varies between sites, and the question studied here is whether hydrogeological disturbances could occur at 2-4 km depth during glacial climate conditions. With regard to the results of SDM-Site and SR-Site, the hydrogeological conditions at repository depth indicate less groundwater flow during glacial climate conditions at Forsmark than at Laxemar. For this reason, this study uses the Laxemar site as a hypothetical site of potentially more permeable conditions, hence more readily affected during glacial climate conditions. A series of flow simulations conducted with DarcyTools in an approximately 5 km deep, super-regional model domain centred on the Laxemar site are reported. The studied cases (model variants) represent a variety of different property specifications along with variations in initial conditions concerning salinity. The model domain is subjected to a transient top boundary representing an advancing ice sheet margin. The behaviour of the grid cell pressure, Darcy flux and mobile salinity is monitored at four different elevations along a vertical scan line through the centre of the suggested location for a KBS-3 repository at Laxemar. The studied monitoring points are located at -0.5 km, -2.5 km, -3.0 km, and -3.5 km. These elevations are chosen with the objective to study the range of hydrogeological disturbance that could occur at 2-4 km depth. The flow model is run

  8. Assessing the Impacts of Atmospheric Conditions under Climate Change on Air Quality Profile over Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hei Tong, Cheuk

    2017-04-01

    Small particulates can cause long term impairment to human health as they can penetrate deep and deposit on the wall of the respiratory system. Under the projected climate change as reported by literature, atmospheric stability, which has strong effects on vertical mixing of air pollutants and thus air quality Hong Kong, is also varying from near to far future. In addition to domestic emission, Hong Kong receives also significant concentration of cross-boundary particulates that their natures and movements are correlated with atmospheric condition. This study aims to study the relation of atmospheric conditions with air quality over Hong Kong. Past meteorological data is based on Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis data. Radiosonde data provided from HKO are also adopted in testing and validating the data. Future meteorological data is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), which dynamically downscaled the past and future climate under the A1B scenario simulated by ECHAM5/MPIOM. Air quality data is collected on one hand from the ground station data provided by Environment Protection Department, with selected stations revealing local emission and trans-boundary emission respectively. On the other hand, an Atmospheric Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), which operates using the radar principle to detect Rayleigh and Mie scattering from atmospheric gas and aerosols, has also been adopted to measure vertical aerosol profile, which has been observed tightly related to the high level meteorology. Data from scattered signals are collected, averaged or some episode selected for characteristic comparison with the atmospheric stability indices and other meteorological factors. The relation between atmospheric conditions and air quality is observed by statistical analysis, and statistical models are built based on the stability indices to project the changes in sulphur dioxide, ozone and particulate

  9. Measurement of heat stress conditions at cow level and comparison to climate conditions at stationary locations inside a dairy barn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüller, Laura K; Heuwieser, Wolfgang

    2016-08-01

    The objectives of this study were to examine heat stress conditions at cow level and to investigate the relationship to the climate conditions at 5 different stationary locations inside a dairy barn. In addition, we compared the climate conditions at cow level between primiparous and multiparous cows for a period of 1 week after regrouping. The temperature-humidity index (THI) differed significantly between all stationary loggers. The lowest THI was measured at the window logger in the experimental stall and the highest THI was measured at the central logger in the experimental stall. The THI at the mobile cow loggers was 2·33 THI points higher than at the stationary loggers. Furthermore, the mean daily THI was higher at the mobile cow loggers than at the stationary loggers on all experimental days. The THI in the experimental pen was 0·44 THI points lower when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. The THI measured at the mobile cow loggers was 1·63 THI points higher when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. However, there was no significant difference for all climate variables between primiparous and multiparous cows. These results indicate, there is a wide range of climate conditions inside a dairy barn and especially areas with a great distance to a fresh air supply have an increased risk for the occurrence of heat stress conditions. Furthermore, the heat stress conditions are even higher at cow level and cows not only influence their climatic environment, but also generate microclimates within different locations inside the barn. Therefore climate conditions should be obtained at cow level to evaluate the heat stress conditions that dairy cows are actually exposed to.

  10. Collaborative Research for Water Resource Management under Climate Change Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brundiers, K.; Garfin, G. M.; Gober, P.; Basile, G.; Bark, R. H.

    2010-12-01

    We present an ongoing project to co-produce science and policy called Collaborative Planning for Climate Change: An Integrated Approach to Water-Planning, Climate Downscaling, and Robust Decision-Making. The project responds to motivations related to dealing with sustainability challenges in research and practice: (a) state and municipal water managers seek research that addresses their planning needs; (b) the scientific literature and funding agencies call for more meaningful engagement between science and policy communities, in ways that address user needs, while advancing basic research; and (c) empirical research contributes to methods for the design and implementation of collaborative projects. To understand how climate change might impact water resources and management in the Southwest US, our project convenes local, state, and federal water management practitioners with climate-, hydrology-, policy-, and decision scientists. Three areas of research inform this collaboration: (a) the role of paleo-hydrology in water resources scenario construction; (b) the types of uncertainties that impact decision-making beyond climate and modeling uncertainty; and (c) basin-scale statistical and dynamical downscaling of climate models to generate hydrologic projections for regional water resources planning. The project engages all participants in the research process, from research design to workshops that build capacity for understanding data generation and sources of uncertainty to the discussion of water management decision contexts. A team of “science-practice translators” facilitates the collaboration between academic and professional communities. In this presentation we contextualize the challenges and opportunities of use-inspired science-policy research collaborations by contrasting the initial project design with the process of implementation. We draw from two sources to derive lessons learned: literature on collaborative research, and evaluations provided by

  11. Comparison and development of advanced dosimetric techniques to be used under extreme climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madhvanath, U.

    1975-08-01

    The post-irradiation fading characteristics of various dosimeters in function of relative humidity of air during storage were tested in specially set up humidity boxes. The temperature and relative humidity were varied between 5deg-35degC and 40-90%, respectively. Fading was 70% and 80% at 2 and 6 days respectively, for Kodak Type 2 film under 28degC and 76% relative humidity. Under these conditions the corresponding values for NTA emulsions were 30% and 80% respectively. Agfa-Gevaert films proved to be less sensitive and gave 20% and 30%, respectively, for the mentioned intervals. When Kodak Type 2 film was sealed in polythene bags, fading was reduced considerably, to appr. 15% in 4 weeks. Alternate storage of exposed films in humid and dry conditions also reduced fading to the same extent. When NTA emulsions were double-sealed with desiccant inside fading was reduced to 10% in 15 days. CaSO 4 :Dy (DRP and Harshaw) showed only 7% fading in 3 months. LiF TLD-100 was more sensitive, 13% in 2 months. Gamma-irradiated Li-borate has faded up to 30% at extreme climatic conditions in 3 months but thermal neutron irradiated Li-borate was resistant against fading for this period

  12. Hot house global climate change and the human condition

    CERN Document Server

    Strom, Robert G

    2007-01-01

    Global warming is addressed by almost all sciences including many aspects of geosciences, atmospheric, the biological sciences, and even astronomy. It has recently become the concern of other diverse disciplines such as economics, agriculture, demographics and population statistics, medicine, engineering, and political science. This book addresses these complex interactions, integrates them, and derives meaningful conclusions and possible solutions. The text provides an easy-to-read explanation of past and present global climate change, causes and possible solutions to the problem, including t

  13. Changing Energy Requirements in the Mediterranean Under Changing Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Demosthenous

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of climate change on energy requirements in the Mediterranean. Energy requirements, especially for space heating and cooling, are closely linked to several weather variables, mainly air temperature. The analysis is based on daily temperature outputs from several regional climate models run at a resolution of 25 km × 25 km in the framework of EU project ENSEMBLES using the A1B emissions scenario. The impacts of changes in temperature on energy requirements are investigated using the concept of degree days, defined as the difference of mean air temperature from a base temperature. Base temperature should be chosen to coincide with the minimum energy consumption. In this way, changes in heating and cooling requirements between the reference and the future period are calculated and areas about to undergo large changes identified. These changes are calculated between a 30-year reference period 1961–1990 and a near future period 2021–2050 taking the ensemble mean of all regional climate models. The near-term future has been chosen instead of the frequently used end-of-the-century period to assist policy makers in their planning. In general, a decrease in energy requirements is projected under future milder winters and an increase under hotter summers.

  14. Varying hydric conditions during incubation influence egg water exchange and hatchling phenotype in the red-eared slider turtle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delmas, Virginie; Bonnet, Xavier; Girondot, Marc; Prévot-Julliard, Anne-Caroline

    2008-01-01

    Environmental conditions within the nest, notably temperature and moisture of substrate, exert a powerful influence during embryogenesis in oviparous reptiles. The influence of fluctuating nest temperatures has been experimentally examined in different reptile species; however, similar experiments using moisture as the key variable are lacking. In this article, we examine the effect of various substrate moisture regimes during incubation on different traits (egg mass, incubation length, and hatchling mass) in a chelonian species with flexible-shelled eggs, the red-eared slider turtle (Trachemys scripta elegans). Our results show that the rate of water uptake by the eggs was higher in wet than in dry substrate and varied across development. More important, during the first third of development, the egg mass changes were relatively independent of the soil moisture level; they became very sensitive to moisture levels during the other two-thirds. Moreover, hydric conditions exerted a strong influence on the eggs' long-term sensitivity to the moisture of the substrate. Even short-term episodes of high or low levels of moisture modified permanently their water sensitivity, notably through modification of eggshell shape and volume, and in turn entailed significant effects on hatchling mass (and hence offspring quality). Such complex influences of fluctuating moisture levels at various incubation stages on hatchling phenotype better reflect the natural situation, compared to experiments based on stable, albeit different, moisture levels.

  15. Sustainability Challenges from Climate Change and Air Conditioning Use in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Lundgren

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change increases heat loads in urban areas causing health and productivity risks for millions of people. Inhabitants in tropical and subtropical urban areas are at especial risk due to high population density, already high temperatures, and temperature increases due to climate change. Air conditioning is growing rapidly, especially in South and South-East Asia due to income growth and the need to protect from high heat exposures. Studies have linked increased total hourly electricity use to outdoor temperatures and humidity; modeled future predictions when facing additional heat due to climate change, related air conditioning with increased street level heat and estimated future air conditioning use in major urban areas. However, global and localized studies linking climate variables with air conditioning alone are lacking. More research and detailed data is needed looking at the effects of increasing air conditioning use, electricity consumption, climate change and interactions with the urban heat island effect. Climate change mitigation, for example using renewable energy sources, particularly photovoltaic electricity generation, to power air conditioning, and other sustainable methods to reduce heat exposure are needed to make future urban areas more climate resilient.

  16. Transformational leadership climate : Performance linkages, mechanisms, and boundary conditions at the organizational level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menges, J.; Walter, F.; Vogel, B.; Bruch, H.

    2011-01-01

    Transformational leadership (TFL) climate describes the degree to which leaders throughout an organization engage in TFL behaviors. In this study, we investigate performance linkages, mechanisms, and boundary conditions of TFL climate at the organizational level of analysis. In a sample of 158

  17. Projected climatic changes on drought conditions over Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Matilde; Quishpe-Vásquez, César; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

    2017-04-01

    In a context of global warming, the evapotranspiration processes will have a strong influence on drought severity. For this reason, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was computed at different timescales in order to explore the projected drought changes for the main watersheds in Spain. For that, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used in order to obtain current (1980-2010) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) climate output fields. WRF model was used over a domain that spans the Iberian Peninsula with a spatial resolution of 0.088°, and nested in the coarser 0.44° EURO-CORDEX domain, and driving by the global bias-corrected climate model output data from version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1), using two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Besides, to examine the behavior of this drought index, a comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which does not consider the evapotranspiration effects, was also performed. Additionally the relationship between the SPEI index and the soil moisture has also been analyzed. The results of this study suggest an increase in the severity and duration of drought, being larger when the SPEI index is used to define drought events. This fact confirms the relevance of taking into account the evapotranspiration processes to detect future drought events. The results also show a noticeable relationship between the SPEI and the simulated soil moisture content, which is more significant at higher timescales. Keywords: Drought, SPEI, SPI, Climatic change, Projections, WRF. Acknowledgements: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

  18. Experiments and numerical modeling of fast flowing liquid metal thin films under spatially varying magnetic field conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narula, Manmeet Singh

    Innovative concepts using fast flowing thin films of liquid metals (like lithium) have been proposed for the protection of the divertor surface in magnetic fusion devices. However, concerns exist about the possibility of establishing the required flow of liquid metal thin films because of the presence of strong magnetic fields which can cause flow disrupting MHD effects. A plan is underway to design liquid lithium based divertor protection concepts for NSTX, a small spherical torus experiment at Princeton. Of these, a promising concept is the use of modularized fast flowing liquid lithium film zones, as the divertor (called the NSTX liquid surface module concept or NSTX LSM). The dynamic response of the liquid metal film flow in a spatially varying magnetic field configuration is still unknown and it is suspected that some unpredicted effects might be lurking. The primary goal of the research work being reported in this dissertation is to provide qualitative and quantitative information on the liquid metal film flow dynamics under spatially varying magnetic field conditions, typical of the divertor region of a magnetic fusion device. The liquid metal film flow dynamics have been studied through a synergic experimental and numerical modeling effort. The Magneto Thermofluid Omnibus Research (MTOR) facility at UCLA has been used to design several experiments to study the MHD interaction of liquid gallium films under a scaled NSTX outboard divertor magnetic field environment. A 3D multi-material, free surface MHD modeling capability is under development in collaboration with HyPerComp Inc., an SBIR vendor. This numerical code called HIMAG provides a unique capability to model the equations of incompressible MHD with a free surface. Some parts of this modeling capability have been developed in this research work, in the form of subroutines for HIMAG. Extensive code debugging and benchmarking exercise has also been carried out. Finally, HIMAG has been used to study the

  19. Stress and body condition are associated with climate and demography in Asian elephants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumby, Hannah S; Mar, Khyne U; Thitaram, Chatchote; Courtiol, Alexandre; Towiboon, Patcharapa; Min-Oo, Zaw; Htut-Aung, Ye; Brown, Janine L; Lummaa, Virpi

    2015-01-01

    Establishing links between ecological variation, physiological markers of stress and demography is crucial for understanding how and why changes in environmental conditions affect population dynamics, and may also play a key role for conservation efforts of endangered species. However, detailed longitudinal studies of long-lived species are rarely available. We test how two markers of stress and body condition vary through the year and are associated with climatic conditions and large-scale mortality and fertility variation in the world's largest semi-captive population of Asian elephants employed in the timber industry in Myanmar. Glucocorticoid metabolites (used as a proxy for stress levels in 75 elephants) and body weight (used as a proxy for condition in 116 elephants) were monitored monthly across a typical monsoon cycle and compared with birth and death patterns of the entire elephant population over half a century (n = 2350). Our results show seasonal variation in both markers of stress and condition. In addition, this variation is correlated with population-level demographic variables. Weight is inversely correlated with population mortality rates 1 month later, and glucocorticoid metabolites are negatively associated with birth rates. Weight shows a highly positive correlation with rainfall 1 month earlier. Determining the factors associated with demography may be key to species conservation by providing information about the correlates of mortality and fertility patterns. The unsustainability of the studied captive population has meant that wild elephants have been captured and tamed for work. By elucidating the correlates of demography in captive elephants, our results offer management solutions that could reduce the pressure on the wild elephant population in Myanmar.

  20. Tourism and climate conditions in San Juan, Puerto Rico, 2000-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo A. Méndez-Lázaro

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The general behavior of the tourism sector in Puerto Rico, with its marked seasonality, hints at a close relationship between tourism activities and climate conditions. Even if weather condition is only one of many variables considered by travelling tourists, climate conditions weigh heavily in the majority of the decisions. The effect of climate variability on the environment could be manifested in warmer temperature, heat waves, and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events, such as severe storms and hurricanes, floods, and sea level rise. These conditions affect different sectors of society, among them public health and the economy. Therefore, our research has two main objectives: to establish a tourism climate index (TCI for Puerto Rico and to analyze if occupancy rates in hotels correspond to local weather conditions. Even though there are many other variables that could have positive or negative effects on tourism activities, results showed a significant association between occupancy rate in Puerto Rico and climate indexes. According to both TCI and the mean historical climate for tourism indexes, the most favorable months for tourism in Puerto Rico were February and March (winter, whereas the worst season was the end of August and the beginning of September (summer-fall. Although winter represents dry conditions and lower temperatures in San Juan, it also represents the highest occupancy rate during the years examined. In summer and fall, data showed high occupancy rates, yet climate conditions were not suitable; these months also correspond to the hurricane season. During this season, high relative occupancy rates responded to internal and local tourism patterns. It can therefore be assumed that until the climate-tourism relationship is well characterized, there is little hope of fully understanding the potential economic effects, detrimental or beneficial, of global climate change, not only on tourism in Puerto Rico, but on

  1. Conditions for Emergence, Stability and Change in New Organizations in the Field of Citizens Climate Action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Figueroa, Maria Josefina

    Climate change represents a crisis of tangible measure and the emergence of a field of action within which acting today needs to be motivated for what can contribute to benefit climate and transform society into a low carbon tomorrow. With the breadth and scope of citizen action on climate change....... This contribution is concerned with the latter. It proposes that using field analysis it is possible to understand conditions of emergence, stability and change in citizen engagement in climate action. The present contribution offers only a preliminary exploration of possibilities for how using field theory can...

  2. Climatic and ecological drivers of euphausiid community structure vary spatially in the Barents Sea: relationships from a long time series (1952-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Lvovna Orlova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Euphausiids play an important role in transferring energy from ephemeral primary producers to fish, seabirds, and marine mammals in the Barents Sea ecosystem. Climatic impacts have been suggested to occur at all levels of the Barents Sea food-web, but adequate exploration of these phenomena on ecologically relevant spatial scales has not been integrated sufficiently. We used a time-series of euphausiid abundance data spanning 58 years, one of the longest biological time-series in the Arctic, to explore qualitative and quantitative relationships among climate, euphausiids, and their predators, and how these parameters vary spatially in the Barents Sea. We detected four main hydrographic regions, each with distinct patterns of interannual variability in euphausiid abundance and community structure. Assemblages varied primarily in the relative abundance of Thysanoessa inermis versus T. raschii, or T. inermis versus T. longicaudata and Meganyctiphanes norvegica. Climate proxies and the abundance of capelin or cod explained 30-60% of the variability in euphausiid abundance in each region. Climate also influenced patterns of variability in euphausiid community structure, but correlations were generally weaker. Advection of boreal euphausiid taxa from the Norwegian Sea is clearly more prominent in warmer years than in colder years, and interacts with seasonal fish migrations to help explain spatial differences in primary drivers of euphausiid community structure. Non-linear effects of predators were common, and must be considered more carefully if a mechanistic understanding of the ecosystem is to be achieved. Quantitative relationships among euphausiid abundance, climate proxies, and predator stock-sizes derived from these time series are valuable for ecological models being used to predict impacts of climate change on the Barents Sea ecosystem, and how the system should be managed.

  3. Impact of Varying Wave Conditions on the Mobility of Arsenic in a Nearshore Aquifer on the Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakhimbekova, S.; O'Carroll, D. M.; Robinson, C. E.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater-coastal water interactions play an important role in controlling the behavior of inorganic chemicals in nearshore aquifers and the subsequent flux of these chemicals to receiving coastal waters. Previous studies have shown that dynamic groundwater flows and water exchange across the sediment-water interface can set up strong geochemical gradients and an important reaction zone in a nearshore aquifer that affect the fate of reactive chemicals. There is limited understanding of the impact of transient coastal forcing such as wave conditions on groundwater dynamics and geochemistry in a nearshore aquifer. The goal of this study was to assess the impact of intensified wave conditions on the behavior of arsenic in a nearshore aquifer and to determine the hydrological and geochemical factors controlling its fate and ultimate delivery to receiving coastal waters. Field investigations were conducted over the period of intensified wave conditions on a freshwater beach on Lake Erie, Canada. High spatial resolution aqueous and sediment sampling was conducted to characterize the subsurface distribution of inorganic species in the nearshore aquifer. Numerical groundwater flow and transport simulations were conducted to evaluate wave-induced perturbations in the flow dynamics including characterizing changes in the groundwater flow recirculations in the nearshore aquifer. The combination of field data and numerical simulations reveal that varying wave conditions alter groundwater flows and set up geochemical transition zones within the aquifer resulting in the release and sequestration of arsenic. Interactions between oxic surface water, mildly reducing shallow groundwater, and reducing sulfur- and iron-rich deep groundwater promote dynamic iron, sulfur and manganese cycling which control the mobility of arsenic in the aquifer. The findings of this study have potential implications for the fate and transport of other reactive chemicals (e.g. phosphorus, mercury) in

  4. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately under climate change conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Inaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2014-05-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been globally earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 50 years because of global warming and this trend is predicted to continue according to climate forecast. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud dormancy, and on the other hand higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cells growth afterwards. Increasing phenological changes in temperate woody species have strong impacts on forest trees distribution and productivity, as well as crops cultivation areas. Accurate predictions of trees phenology are therefore a prerequisite to understand and foresee the impacts of climate change on forests and agrosystems. Different process-based models have been developed in the last two decades to predict the date of budburst or flowering of woody species. They are two main families: (1) one-phase models which consider only the ecodormancy phase and make the assumption that endodormancy is always broken before adequate climatic conditions for cell growth occur; and (2) two-phase models which consider both the endodormancy and ecodormancy phases and predict a date of dormancy break which varies from year to year. So far, one-phase models have been able to predict accurately tree bud break and flowering under historical climate. However, because they do not consider what happens prior to ecodormancy, and especially the possible negative effect of winter temperature warming on dormancy break, it seems unlikely that they can provide accurate predictions in future climate conditions. It is indeed well known that a lack of low temperature results in abnormal pattern of bud break and development in temperate fruit trees. An accurate modelling of the dormancy break date has thus become a major issue in phenology modelling. Two-phases phenological models predict that global warming should delay

  5. Exploring Relationships among Tree-Ring Growth, Climate Variability, and Seasonal Leaf Activity on Varying Timescales and Spatial Resolutions

    OpenAIRE

    Bhuyan, Upasana;Zang, Christian;Vicente-Serrano, Sergio;Menzel, Annette

    2018-01-01

    In the first section of this study, we explored the relationship between ring width index (RWI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series on varying timescales and spatial resolutions, hypothesizing positive associations between RWI and current and previous- year NDVI at 69 forest sites scattered in the Northern Hemisphere. We noted that the relationship between RWI and NDVI varies over space and between tree types (deciduous versus coniferous), bioclimatic zones, cumulati...

  6. Exploring Relationships among Tree-Ring Growth, Climate Variability, and Seasonal Leaf Activity on Varying Timescales and Spatial Resolutions

    OpenAIRE

    Upasana Bhuyan; Christian Zang; Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano; Annette Menzel

    2017-01-01

    In the first section of this study, we explored the relationship between ring width index (RWI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series on varying timescales and spatial resolutions, hypothesizing positive associations between RWI and current and previous- year NDVI at 69 forest sites scattered in the Northern Hemisphere. We noted that the relationship between RWI and NDVI varies over space and between tree types (deciduous versus coniferous), bioclimatic zones, cumulati...

  7. Evaluation of the Survivability of Microorganisms Deposited on Filtering Respiratory Protective Devices under Varying Conditions of Humidity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Majchrzycka

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Bioaerosols are common biological factors in work environments, which require routine use of filtering respiratory protective devices (FRPDs. Currently, no studies link humidity changes in the filter materials of such devices, during use, with microorganism survivability. Our aim was to determine the microclimate inside FRPDs, by simulating breathing, and to evaluate microorganism survivability under varying humidity conditions. Breathing was simulated using commercial filtering facepiece respirators in a model system. Polypropylene melt-blown nonwoven fabrics with moisture contents of 40%, 80%, and 200%, were used for assessment of microorganisms survivability. A modified AATCC 100-2004 method was used to measure the survivability of ATCC and NCAIM microorganisms: Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus subtilis, Candida albicans and Aspergillus niger. During simulation relative humidity under the facepiece increased after 7 min of usage to 84%–92% and temperature increased to 29–30 °C. S. aureus survived the best on filter materials with 40%–200% moisture content. A decrease in survivability was observed for E. coli and C. albicans when mass humidity decreased. We found that B. subtilis and A. niger proliferated for 48–72 h of incubation and then died regardless of the moisture content. In conclusion, our tests showed that the survivability of microorganisms on filter materials depends on the amount of accumulated moisture and microorganism type.

  8. Evaluation of the Survivability of Microorganisms Deposited on Filtering Respiratory Protective Devices under Varying Conditions of Humidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majchrzycka, Katarzyna; Okrasa, Małgorzata; Skóra, Justyna; Gutarowska, Beata

    2016-01-04

    Bioaerosols are common biological factors in work environments, which require routine use of filtering respiratory protective devices (FRPDs). Currently, no studies link humidity changes in the filter materials of such devices, during use, with microorganism survivability. Our aim was to determine the microclimate inside FRPDs, by simulating breathing, and to evaluate microorganism survivability under varying humidity conditions. Breathing was simulated using commercial filtering facepiece respirators in a model system. Polypropylene melt-blown nonwoven fabrics with moisture contents of 40%, 80%, and 200%, were used for assessment of microorganisms survivability. A modified AATCC 100-2004 method was used to measure the survivability of ATCC and NCAIM microorganisms: Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus subtilis, Candida albicans and Aspergillus niger. During simulation relative humidity under the facepiece increased after 7 min of usage to 84%-92% and temperature increased to 29-30 °C. S. aureus survived the best on filter materials with 40%-200% moisture content. A decrease in survivability was observed for E. coli and C. albicans when mass humidity decreased. We found that B. subtilis and A. niger proliferated for 48-72 h of incubation and then died regardless of the moisture content. In conclusion, our tests showed that the survivability of microorganisms on filter materials depends on the amount of accumulated moisture and microorganism type.

  9. Relationship between continuity of care and adverse outcomes varies by number of chronic conditions among older adults with diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva H. DuGoff

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Follow us on Twitter Co-Editors-in-Chief Martin Fortin Jane Gunn Stewart W. Mercer Susan Smith Marjan van den Akker Society for Academic Primary Care Journal Help USER You are logged in as... avalster My Profile Log Out JOURNAL CONTENT Search Search Scope Search Browse By Issue By Author By Title By Sections By Identify Types OPEN JOURNAL SYSTEMS FONT SIZE Make font size smallerMake font size defaultMake font size larger INFORMATION For Readers For Authors For Librarians ARTICLE TOOLS Print this article Indexing metadata How to cite item Supplementary files Finding References Email this article Email the author Post a Comment NOTIFICATIONS View (378 new Manage IRCMO NEWS ‘Addressing the global challenge of... Publications on multimorbidity... The CARE Plus study Prevalence of multimorbidity in the... Multimorbidity in adults from a... CURRENT ISSUE Atom logo RSS2 logo RSS1 logo HOSTED BY Part of the PKP Publishing Services Network HOME ABOUT USER HOME SEARCH CURRENT ARCHIVES ANNOUNCEMENTS PUBLISHER AUTHOR GUIDELINES SUBMISSIONS WHY PUBLISH WITH US? Home > Vol 6, No 2 (2016 >\tDuGoff Relationship between continuity of care and adverse outcomes varies by number of chronic conditions among older adults with diabetes Eva H. DuGoff, Karen Bandeen-Roche, Gerard F. Anderson Abstract Background: Continuity of care is a basic tenant of primary care practice. However, the evidence on the importance of continuity of care for older adults with complex conditions is mixed. Objective: To assess the relationship between measurement of continuity of care, number of chronic conditions, and health outcomes. Design: We analyzed data from a cohort of 1,600 US older adults with diabetes and ≥1 other chronic condition in a private Medicare health plan from July 2010 to December 2011. Multivariate regression models were used to examine the association of baseline continuity (the first 6 months and the composite outcome of any emergency room use or inpatient

  10. Starch degradation in rumen fluid as influenced by genotype, climatic conditions and maturity stage of maize, grown under controlled conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ali, M.; Cone, J.W.; Hendriks, W.H.; Struik, P.C.

    2014-01-01

    Starch is the major component of maize kernels, contributing significantly to the feeding value of forage maize when fed to ruminants. The effects of genotype, climatic conditions and maturity stage on starch content in the kernels and on in vitro starch degradability in rumen fluid were

  11. Heavy metals in precipitation waters under conditions of varied anthropopressure in typical of European low mountain regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rabajczyk A.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The environment is a dynamic system, subject to change resulting from a variety of physicochemical factors, such as temperature, pressure, pH, redox potential and human activity. The quantity and variety of these determinants cause the inflow of substances into individual environmental elements to vary in both time and space, as well as in terms of substance types and quantities. The energy and matter flow in the environment determines its integrity, which means that the processes occurring in one element of the environment affect the others. A certain measure of the energy and matter flow is the migration of chemical substances in various forms from one place to another. In a particular geographical space, under natural conditions, a specific level of balance between individual processes appears; in areas subject to anthropopressure, the correlations are different. In small areas, varying deposition volumes and chemism of precipitation waters which reach the substratum directly can both be observed. The study area is similar in terms of geological origins as well as morphological, structural and physico-chemical properties, and is typical of European low mountain regions. A qualitative and quantitative study of wet atmospheric precipitation was conducted between February 2009 and May 2011 in the Bobrza river catchment in the Holy Cross (Świętokrzyskie Mountains (Poland, at three sampling sites of varying land development and distance from sources of various acidic-alkaline emissions. Field and laboratory work was conducted over 29 months, from February 2009 to May 2011. Atmospheric precipitation measurements were carried out in a continuous manner by means of a Hellman rain gauge (200cm2. The collecting surface was placed at ground level (0m AGL. The application of a collecting funnel and an adequately prepared polyethylene collecting can in the rain gauge enabled the measurement of precipitation volume and water sampling for chemical

  12. An ensemble prediction approach to weekly Dengue cases forecasting based on climatic and terrain conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sougata Deb

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Dengue fever has been one of the most concerning endemic diseases of recent times. Every year, 50-100 million people get infected by the dengue virus across the world. Historically, it has been most prevalent in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands. In recent years, frequent dengue epidemics have started occurring in Latin America as well. This study focused on assessing the impact of different short and long-term lagged climatic predictors on dengue cases. Additionally, it assessed the impact of building an ensemble model using multiple time series and regression models, in improving prediction accuracy. Materials and Methods: Experimental data were based on two Latin American cities, viz. San Juan (Puerto Rico and Iquitos (Peru. Due to weather and geographic differences, San Juan recorded higher dengue incidences than Iquitos. Using lagged cross-correlations, this study confirmed the impact of temperature and vegetation on the number of dengue cases for both cities, though in varied degrees and time lags. An ensemble of multiple predictive models using an elaborate set of derived predictors was built and validated. Results: The proposed ensemble prediction achieved a mean absolute error of 21.55, 4.26 points lower than the 25.81 obtained by a standard negative binomial model. Changes in climatic conditions and urbanization were found to be strong predictors as established empirically in other researches. Some of the predictors were new and informative, which have not been explored in any other relevant studies yet. Discussion and Conclusions: Two original contributions were made in this research. Firstly, a focused and extensive feature engineering aligned with the mosquito lifecycle. Secondly, a novel covariate pattern-matching based prediction approach using past time series trend of the predictor variables. Increased accuracy of the proposed model over the benchmark model proved the appropriateness of the analytical approach

  13. Evaluation of factors affecting soil carbon sequestration services of stormwater wet retention ponds in varying climate zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merriman, L S; Moore, T L C; Wang, J W; Osmond, D L; Al-Rubaei, A M; Smolek, A P; Blecken, G T; Viklander, M; Hunt, W F

    2017-04-01

    The carbon sequestration services of stormwater wet retention ponds were investigated in four different climates: U.S., Northern Sweden, Southern Sweden, and Singapore, representing a range of annual mean temperatures, growing season lengths and rainfall depths: geographic factors that were not statistically compared, but have great effect on carbon (C) accumulation. A chronosequence was used to estimate C accumulations rates; C accumulation and decomposition rates were not directly measured. C accumulated significantly over time in vegetated shallow water areas (0-30cm) in the USA (78.4gCm -2 yr -1 ), in vegetated temporary inundation zones in Sweden (75.8gCm -2 yr -1 ), and in all ponds in Singapore (135gCm -2 yr -1 ). Vegetative production appeared to exert a stronger influence on relative C accumulation rates than decomposition. Comparing among the four climatic zones, the effects of increasing rainfall and growing season lengths (vegetative production) outweighed the effects of higher temperature on decomposition rates. Littoral vegetation was a significant source to the soil C pool relative to C sources draining from watersheds. Establishment of vegetation in the shallow water zones of retention ponds is vital to providing a C source to the soil. Thus, the width of littoral shelves containing this vegetation along the perimeter may be increased if C sequestration is a design goal. This assessment establishes that stormwater wet retention ponds can sequester C across different climate zones with generally annual rainfall and lengths of growing season being important general factors for C accumulation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Net energy value of maize ethanol as a response to different climate and soil conditions in the southeastern USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Persson, Tomas; Garcia y Garcia, Axel; Paz, Joel O.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit [Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, 1109 Experiment Street, The University of Georgia, Griffin, GA 30223 (United States); Jones, James W. [Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Frazier Rogers Hall, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States)

    2009-08-15

    A recent increase in the demand for bio-ethanol has sparked maize production in the USA and other countries across the world. The net energy value (NEV), i.e. the energy output in ethanol and co-products after accounting for energy input requirements in the production chain of ethanol, is a measure of its sustainability. Grain yield of maize, which varies substantially across different climate and soil conditions, greatly impacts the ethanol NEV. The objectives of this study were to determine i) the NEV of ethanol produced from maize grown in four production regions in the southeastern USA and, ii) the specific impact of local soil variability under the same climate conditions within the four regions on the NEV of maize-ethanol. Maize yield was simulated with the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Maize model for soil and weather conditions, and management practices representing Bulloch, Floyd, Laurens and Mitchell counties, Georgia, USA. The calculation of ethanol NEV took into account the energy inputs and outputs of the entire ethanol production chain, and was based on the crop simulations. There were statistically significant differences in ethanol NEV among the counties, and within counties due to local soil variability. Differences in ethanol NEV among counties were partially due to different transportation distances. Based on the results of this study, it was concluded that maize-ethanol NEV can be increased by accounting for the soil and climate factors in the feedstock production and by locating ethanol-processing facilities in regions with soil and climate conditions that are favorable for ethanol-maize production. (author)

  15. Response of tomato cultivars to different organic fertilizers under agro-climatic conditions of mingora, Swat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yousafzai, S.K.; Khan, S.M.; Khan, J.; Khan, S.A.; Hussain, I.; Naz, I.

    2016-01-01

    An experiment was conducted at Agricultural Research Institute (ARI) Mingora, Swat during 2013 to study the effect of different organic fertilizers of tomato cultivars under the agro-climatic conditions of Mingora, Swat. The experiment was conducted in randomized complete block design with split plot arrangements having four treatments with three replications. Almost all the traits showed significant differences for organic fertilizers and varieties, while their interactions had a varied response. The analyzed data showed that poultry manure gave maximum yield (24.65 t ha/sup -1/), followed by FYM (24.38 t ha/sup -1/) and mushroom compost (24.11 t ha/sup -1/ ) while minimum was recorded in plots where no organic fertilizer was used. The results revealed that cultivar, Rio Grand showed maximum number of plant survival percentage (98.33 percent), days to flowering (40.73), number of flowers plant/sup -1/ (6.23), number of fruit plant (25.67), fruit 3 weight (8.84 kg), number of leaves plant/sup -1/ (83.66), fruit size (64.70 cm/sup 3/) and total yield (25.67 t ha/sup -1/ ) in Farm Yard Manure (FYM). Considering the overall performance, it was found that the tomato cultivar Rio Grand was promising for yield and other characters where FYM was applied. (author)

  16. Experimental investigation on a coupled solar still under desert climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boukar, M.; Harmim, A.

    2000-01-01

    Distillation of water is energy intensive, and the use of solar energy for this purpose has been quite well developed and applied in many places. The performance of a simple basin greenhouse-type solar still coupled to a flat plate collector is experimentally investigated. The Saharan sites of Algeria enjoys bright sunshine and dry weather during most part of year. The objective of the work is to improve the performances of a simple single basin solar still, we test the distillation system in winter, under desert climatic conditions, to improve the quality and increase the quantity of distilled water, by using a solar collector for increasing the brine temperature, enhancing the evaporation process of a simple solar still and improving distillate collection process. Experiments have been conducted in Adrar, Algerian desert town (27 degree 18' N, latitude, 0 degree 17' W longitude). The daily still productivity in winter period varies from 4.5 l/m 2 /day to 5.3 l/m 2 /day with variation of water level from 1.5 cm to 3.5 cm. (Author)

  17. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  18. The future bioclimatic conditions in Austria under the aspect of climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudel, E.; Matzarakis, A.; Neumke, R.; Endler, Ch,; Koch, E.

    2009-09-01

    The IPCC quantifies Heat Stress as a combination of air temperature and air humidity. In order to describe the future bioclimatic conditions in a human-biometeorological manner the analysis a modern thermal index has been chosen. The PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) allows the assessment of the effect of the thermal environment based on the energy balance of humans including thermo-physiological information. The data for the calculation of the PET came from climate models. The required data are for the climatic parameters air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and mean cloud cover as the necessary inputs for Physiologically Equivalents Temperature. Regarding future climatic changes PET calculations for the time slices 1961 and 1990 and also 2070 and 2100 have been run in 0.5 ° resolution. By the use of statistical regression for the 0.5 ° resolution the results have been downscaled to 1 km resolution in order to identify and quantify the areas in Austria, which will be more affected bioclimatologically. The constructed maps present current and future climatic conditions and also differences for the different time slices and SRES-scenarios of the IPCC. Maps of the difference between the Physiological Equivalent temperature and air temperature have been constructed to show that the used thermal indices, which have been applied by the IPCC underestimate the expected thermal bioclimate conditions for future climate. The results offer fundamental information for tourism and recreation authorities for present and expected climatic and bioclimatic conditions.

  19. Associação entre incidência de dengue e variáveis climáticas Association between dengue incidence and climatic factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andressa F Ribeiro

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Descrever a ocorrência de casos de dengue autóctone segundo sexo, faixa etária e local provável de infecção e sua relação com variáveis climatológicas. MÉTODOS: Os registros de casos autóctones em São Sebastião, SP, de 2001 a 2002, e confirmados laboratorialmente foram estudados. A densidade larval foi verificada pelos índices de predial, recipientes e Breteau. A relação entre dados de pluviosidade, temperatura e número de casos foi analisada pela correlação de Spearman utilizando-se o conceito time-lag. RESULTADOS: Os coeficientes de incidência anuais para 2001 e 2002 foram de 80,31 e 211,1 por 10.000 habitantes, respectivamente. A maioria dos casos de dengue (n=1.091; 65% foi registrada na área central do município. O sexo feminino foi o mais acometido (n=969; 60% e ambos os sexos nas faixas etárias entre 20 e 29 e 30 e 39 anos. Não foi observada correlação entre variáveis climatológicas e número de casos do mesmo mês, entretanto, esta associação ocorre a partir do segundo mês estendendo-se até o quarto mês. CONCLUSÕES: A associação entre o número de casos de dengue e fatores abióticos identificou o intervalo de tempo em que a chuva e a temperatura contribuíram na geração de novos casos. Tais aspectos, associados à vulnerabilidade turística da região litorânea, propiciaram condições para ocorrência da doença. A urbanização sem a devida estrutura de saneamento possivelmente influenciou na densidade de mosquitos e na incidência de dengue. Esses fatores podem ter contribuído para a dispersão do mosquito e disseminação dos vários sorotipos da doença.OBJECTIVE: To describe the occurrence of autochthonous dengue cases according to sex, age, suspected infection site and its relation with climatic variables. METHODS: Autochthonous dengue cases reported in São Sebastião, Southern Brazil, from 2001 to 2002 and confirmed in laboratory were studied. Larval density was verified by

  20. Evaluation of thermal perception in schoolyards under Mediterranean climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoniadis, D.; Katsoulas, N.; Papanastasiou, D.; Christidou, V.; Kittas, C.

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this paper was to study qualitatively and quantitatively the thermal perception and corresponding heat stress conditions that prevail in two schoolyards in a coastal city in central Greece. For this purpose, meteorological parameters (i.e., wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation) were recorded at 70 and 55 measuring points in the schoolyards, from 14:00 to 15:30 local time, during May and June of 2011. The measuring points were distributed so as to get measurements at points (a) directly exposed to the sun, (b) under the shadow of trees and building structures, and (c) near building structures. Cluster analysis was applied to group observations and revealed places that are microclimatically homogeneous. Thermal perception and heat stress conditions were assessed by means of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET, °C), and the results are presented in relevant charts. The impact of material's albedo, radiation's reflection by structures and obstacles, and different tree species on thermal perception and heat stress conditions was also assessed. The analysis showed that trees triggered a reduction of incident solar radiation that ranged between 79 and 94 % depending on tree's species, crown dimension, tree height, and leaf area. PET values were mainly affected by solar radiation and wind speed. Trees caused a reduction of up to 37 % in PET values, while a 1-m s-1 increase in wind speed triggered a reduction of 3.7-5.0 °C in PET value. The effective shading area in the two schoolyards was small, being 27.5 and 11 %. The results of this study could be exploited by urban planning managers when designing or improving the outdoor environment of a school complex.

  1. Impact of future climatic conditions on the potential for soil organic matter priming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reinsch, Sabine; Ambus, Per; Thornton, Barry

    2013-01-01

    Terrestrial carbon (C) storage and turnover are of major interest under changing climatic conditions. We present a laboratory microcosm study investigating the effects of anticipated climatic conditions on the soil microbial community and related changes in soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition....... Soil samples were taken from a heath-land after six years of exposure to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO2) in combination with summer drought (D) and increased temperature (T). Soil C-dynamics were investigated in soils from: (i) ambient, (ii) eCO2, and (iii) plots exposed to the combination of factors...... simulating future climatic conditions (TDeCO2) that simulate conditions predicted for Denmark in 2075. 13C enriched glucose (3 atom% excess) was added to soil microcosms, soil CO2 efflux was measured over a period of two weeks and separated into glucose- and SOM-derived C. Microbial biomass was measured...

  2. Environmental impacts of barley cultivation under current and future climatic conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dijkman, Teunis Johannes; Birkved, Morten; Saxe, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    for the increased impacts. This finding was confirmed by the sensitivity analysis. Because this study focused solely on the impacts of climate change, technological improvements and political measures to reduce impacts in the 2050 scenario are not taken into account. Options to mitigate the environmental impacts......The purpose of this work is to compare the environmental impacts of spring barley cultivation in Denmark under current (year 2010) and future (year 2050) climatic conditions. Therefore, a Life Cycle Assessment was carried out for the production of 1 kg of spring barley in Denmark, at farm gate....... Both under 2010 and 2050 climatic conditions, four subscenarios were modelled, based on a combination of two soil types and two climates. Included in the assessment were seed production, soil preparation, fertilization, pesticide application, and harvest. When processes in the life cycle resulted in co...

  3. Climatic conditions governing extensive Azolla bloom during the Middle Eocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekker, Rolande; Speelman, Eveline N.; Barke, Judith; Konijnendijk, Tiuri; Sinninge Damste, Jaap S.; Reichart, Gert-Jan

    2010-05-01

    Enormous amounts of intact mega- and microspores from the free floating aquatic fern Azolla were found in sediments recovered during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program expedition 302, indicating that Azolla grew and reproduced in situ in the Eocene Arctic Ocean. In general, the Early/Middle Eocene is characterized by enhanced greenhouse conditions with elevated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Arctic (~10°C), while tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were only a little warmer than today (with a mean annual temperature (MAT) of 32-34 °C) (Pearson et al., 2007). The consequently reduced temperature gradient between the equator and the poles and the presence of freshwater at the North Pole as indicated by the presence of the freshwater fern Azolla (Brinkhuis et al., 2006) provide important boundary conditions for understanding the hydrological cycle and latent heat transport during this interval. Here we reconstruct variations in SST and mean annual air temperature using the TEX86 and MBT temperature proxies for the Azolla interval. Sediments from around the Arctic Basin have been analyzed, including samples from Alaska, the Mackenzie Basin, Greenland (IODP core 913b), and Denmark. Furthermore, a high resolution sea surface temperature record for the Azolla interval has been constructed from sediment samples from the Lomonosov Ridge, showing a cyclic signal. Model experiments have shown that the here confirmed low equator-to-pole temperature gradient modulated the hydrological cycle. Since the growth of Azolla is restricted to low salinity conditions, changes in the hydrological cycle are proposed to coincide with the cyclic occurrence of Azolla throughout the interval. To confirm the overlapping presence of high quantities of Azolla and increased precipitation, changes in the hydrogen cycle are reconstructed by creating a high resolution hydrogen isotope record throughout the interval. By performing compound specific analyses (δD) on terrestrial derived

  4. Varied Human Tolerance to the Combined Conditions of Low Contrast and Diminished Luminance: A Quasi-Meta Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-30

    conditions (e.g., dry eyes , mild cataractous conditions, Stevens-Johnson Syndrome ) using CS alone as the performance index. More commonly, it has been...subjects tested under conditions of spherical blur, astigmatic blur, low luminance, and one eye vs. two eyes ...conditions). The vast majority of past mesopic visual performance studies were predominantly isolated to evaluations of various eye disease

  5. Simulation of growth and yield of rainfed maize under varied agronomic management and changing climatic scenario in Nawalparasi, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umesh Shrestha

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available A field experiment and simulation modeling study in combination for different maize cultivars planted at different sowing dates were accomplished at Kawasoti-5, Nawalparasi during spring season of 2013 to assess the impact of climate change scenario as predicted by IPCC in rainfed spring maize by using CSM-CERES-Maize model. Result showed that RML-4/RML-17 produced higher kernel rows/ ear (13.77, kernel per row (30.42 and test weight (244.9 g. Significantly higher grain yield was also found for RML-4/RML-17 (6.03 t/ha compared to Poshilo makai-1 (4.73 t/ha, Arun-2 (3.55 t/ha and Local (2.92 t/ha. Earlier sowing date (7th April actually produced higher kernel/row (27.97, kernel rows/ear (12.89 and 1000 grain weight (230 g. Significantly higher grain yield (5.13t/ha was obtained in earlier sowing date (7th April. The CSM-CERES-Maize model was calibrated and found well validated with days to anthesis (RMSE= 0.426 day and D-index= 0.998, days to physiological maturity (RMSE=0.674 day and D-index= 0.999, number of grain/m2 at maturity (RMSE= 85.287 grain /m2 and D-index= 0.993, unit weight at maturity (RMSE=0.012 g/kernel and D-index= 0.854 and grain yield (RMSE=54.94 kg/ha and D-index= 1.00. The model was found sensitive to climate change parameters. The sensitivity for various climate change parameter indicated that there was severely decreased trend in simulated rainfed spring maize yield with the increment of maximum and minimum temperature, decrease in solar radiation and decrease carbondioxide concentration. Even 2°C rise in temperature can decrease around 15-20% yield of spring maize and this negative effect was even more pronounced in hybrid than other cultivars.

  6. Effects of city expansion on heat stress under climate change conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Argüeso

    Full Text Available We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990-2009 and future (2040-2059 simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort.

  7. Morro do Cruzeiro UFOP Campus evaluation of indoors climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela A. Faria

    Full Text Available Abstract The comfort conditions of a given environment can directly influence the performance of the activities performed therein. When considering the school space in relationship with the user, the environment is even more important, since it may reflect fully on the learning process. This article evaluates the thermal comfort perceptions of classroom users of the Federal University of Ouro Preto, specifically the School of Mining, the Institute of Physical and Biological Sciences and the Building Block of Classrooms. The research is conducted through questionnaires and measurements of environmental variables in loco simultaneously in the three areas throughout the months of June, July and September 2011. The results were statistically analyzed using the calculation of the standard deviation from the mean operative temperature and humidity to give comfort zone. Approximately 75% of the users were satisfied with the thermal environment.

  8. Attributing Climate Conditions for Stable Malaria Transmission to Human Activity in sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldrake, L.; Mitchell, D.; Allen, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    Temperature and precipitation limit areas of stable malaria transmission, but the effects of climate change on the disease remain controversial. Previously, studies have not separated the influence of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability, despite being an essential step in the attribution of climate change impacts. Ensembles of 2900 simulations of regional climate in sub-Saharan Africa for the year 2013, one representing realistic conditions and the other how climate might have been in the absence of human influence, were used to force a P.falciparium climate suitability model developed by the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project. Strongest signals were detected in areas of unstable transmission, indicating their heightened sensitivity to climatic factors. Evidently, impacts of human-induced climate change were unevenly distributed: the probability of conditions being suitable for stable malaria transmission were substantially reduced (increased) in the Sahel (Greater Horn of Africa (GHOA), particularly in the Ethiopian and Kenyan highlands). The length of the transmission season was correspondingly shortened in the Sahel and extended in the GHOA, by 1 to 2 months, including in Kericho (Kenya), where the role of climate change in driving recent malaria occurrence is hotly contested. Human-induced warming was primarily responsible for positive anomalies in the GHOA, while reduced rainfall caused negative anomalies in the Sahel. The latter was associated with anthropogenic impacts on the West African Monsoon, but uncertainty in the RCM's ability to reproduce precipitation trends in the region weakens confidence in the result. That said, outputs correspond well with broad-scale changes in observed endemicity, implying a potentially important contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the malaria burden during the past century. Results support the health-framing of climate risk and help indicate hotspots of climate vulnerability, providing

  9. Sustainability Challenges from Climate Change and Air Conditioning Use in Urban Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Lundgren, Karin; Kjellström, Tord

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change increases heat loads in urban areas causing health and productivity risks for millions of people. Inhabitants in tropical and subtropical urban areas are at especial risk due to high population density, already high temperatures, and temperature increases due to climate change. Air conditioning is growing rapidly, especially in South and South-East Asia due to income growth and the need to protect from high heat exposures. Studies have linked increased total hourly elect...

  10. Conditions for a market uptake of climate services for adaptation in France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romain Cavelier

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This perspective paper reports the results of a collaborative survey of French research institutes concerned with environmental issues, which examined the potential for a market uptake of climate services for adaptation in France. The study is based on a review of existing reports on the market of climate services, and on interviews of 68 climate service providers and users in public and private organizations. Although the study does not allow to provide quantified estimations regarding the present and future size of the market, its results offer new perspectives with implications extending far beyond the sole case of France: first, while the market is still in its infancy, significant opportunities exist in sectors such as flooding risks, and, to a slightly lesser extent, hydro and nuclear energy and viticulture. In addition, the study identifies critical conditions for the uptake in climate services: (1 a coordinated delivery of data, information, expertise and training by public research institutes concerned with climate change and its impacts; (2 the inclusion of adaptation in the regulation and in public and private tenders. Finally, (3 uncertainties in climate projections appear as a major barrier to the uptake of climate services. However, ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction as planned by the COP-21 Paris Agreement contribute to reducing this uncertainties by allowing users to select a subset of climate change projections, avoiding those for which adaptation is most problematic.

  11. Effects of future climate conditions on terrestrial export from coastal southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project (SBC-LTER) is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export is a central theme for the project. Here we combine the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model and daily precipitation and temperature downscaled using statistical downscaling based on localized constructed Analogs (LOCA) to estimate recent streamflow dynamics (2000 to 2014) and future conditions (2015 to 2100). The HRR model covers the SBC-LTER watersheds from just west of the Ventura River to Point Conception; a land area of roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The downscaled climate conditions have a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. Here, we use the Penman-Monteith method with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites to estimate potential evapotranspiration (PET). The HRR model is calibrated for the period 2000 to 2014 using USGS and LTER streamflow. An automated calibration technique is used. For future climate scenarios, we use mean 8-day land cover conditions. Future streamflow, ET and soil moisture statistics are presented and based on downscaled P and T from ten climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).

  12. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeves, T.L.; Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.R.; Skinner, Q.D.

    1992-06-01

    The scope of this program is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 x 3.0 x 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by RBOSC to carry out this study. Research objectives were designed to evaluate hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical properties and conditions which would affect the design and performance of large-scale embankments. The objectives of this research are: assess the unsaturated movement and redistribution of water and the development of potential saturated zones and drainage in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the unsaturated movement of solubles and major chemical constituents in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the physical and constitutive properties of the processed oil shale and determine potential changes in these properties caused by disposal and weathering by natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the use of previously developed computer model(s) to describe the infiltration, unsaturated movement, redistribution, and drainage of water in disposed processed oil shale; evaluate the stability of field scale processed oil shale solid waste embankments using computer models

  13. Climate related trends and meteorological conditions in European Arctic region - Porsanger fjord, Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieszyńska, Agata; Stramska, Małgorzata

    2017-04-01

    Climate change has significant effect on the Arctic environment, where global trends are amplified. In this study, we have focused on the Porsanger fjord, located in European Arctic in the coastal region of the Barents Sea. We have analyzed climate related trends and meteorological condititions in the area of interest. Meteorological data included wind speed and direction, air temperature (AT) and precipitation from Era-Interim reanalysis (1986-2015) and local observations (1996-2015) from Lakselv (L, fjord's head area) and Honningsvaag (H - fjord's exit area). Our results confirm that this region is undergoing climate change related warming, which is indicated by rising air temperatures. Based on long-term reanalysis data, estimated trends for air temperature (AT) in Porsanger fjord are: 0.0536 °C year-1 at fjord's exit and 0.0428 °C year-1 at fjord's head. The results show that climate change does not seem to have a significant effect on long-term changes of wind speed and precipitation in the Porsanger fjord. Statistical analysis underlined significant spatial variability of meteorological conditions inside the fjord. For example, there are large differences in the annual cycle of AT with monthly mean January and July values of -8.4 and 12.6 °C in L and -2.5 and 10.1 °C in H. Dominant wind directions in Lakselv are S and SSE, while in Honningsvaag S and SSW directions prevail. Strong wind events (above 12 m s-1) are more frequent in H than in L. Annual cycle is characterized by stronger winds in winter and seasonality of wind direction. Precipitation for a given location can change by about 50% between years and varies spatially. Synoptic scale and within day variability are extremely intense in the area of interest. Air temperature and wind speed and direction can change dramatically in hours. In addition, regular patterns of the daily cycle of AT have different intensity in L and H. It is interesting to note that in spring/summer season, the daily cycle of

  14. Projections of meteorological and snow conditions in the Pyrenees using adjusted EURO-CORDEX climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

    2017-04-01

    Current and future availability of seasonal snow is a recurring topic in mountain regions such as the Pyrenees, where winter tourism and hydropower production are large contributors to the regional revenues in France, Spain and Andorra. Associated changes in river discharges, their consequences on water storage management, the future vulnerability of Pyrenean ecosystems as well as the occurrence of climate-related hazards such as debris flows and avalanches are also under consideration. However, to generate projections of snow conditions, a traditional dynamical downscaling approach featuring spatial resolutions typically between 10 and 50 km is not sufficient to capture the fine-scale processes and thresholds at play. Indeed, the altitudinal resolution matters, since the phase of precipitation is mainly controlled by the temperature which is altitude-dependent. Moreover, simulations from general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) suffer from biases compared to local observations, and often provide outputs at too coarse time resolution to drive impact models. RCM simulations must therefore be adjusted before they can be used to drive specific models such as land surface models. In this study, time series of hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation were generated over the Pyrenees for the period 1950-2100, by using a new approach (named ADAMONT for ADjustment of RCM outputs to MOuNTain regions) based on quantile mapping applied to daily data, followed by time disaggregation accounting for weather patterns selection. Meteorological observations used for the quantile mapping consist of the regional scale reanalysis SAFRAN, which operates at the scale of homogeneous areas on the order of 1000 km2 within which meteorological conditions vary only with elevation. SAFRAN combines large-scale NWP reanalysis (ERA40, ARPEGE) with in-situ meteorological observations. The SAFRAN reanalysis is available

  15. Prediction of thermal sensation in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

    2002-01-01

    The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

  16. Extension of the PMV model to non-air-conditioned building in warm climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

    2002-01-01

    The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

  17. Does safety climate moderate the influence of staffing adequacy and work conditions on nurse injuries?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark, Barbara A; Hughes, Linda C; Belyea, Michael; Chang, Yunkyung; Hofmann, David; Jones, Cheryl B; Bacon, Cynthia T

    2007-01-01

    Hospital nurses have one of the highest work-related injury rates in the United States. Yet, approaches to improving employee safety have generally focused on attempts to modify individual behavior through enforced compliance with safety rules and mandatory participation in safety training. We examined a theoretical model that investigated the impact on nurse injuries (back injuries and needlesticks) of critical structural variables (staffing adequacy, work engagement, and work conditions) and further tested whether safety climate moderated these effects. A longitudinal, non-experimental, organizational study, conducted in 281 medical-surgical units in 143 general acute care hospitals in the United States. Work engagement and work conditions were positively related to safety climate, but not directly to nurse back injuries or needlesticks. Safety climate moderated the relationship between work engagement and needlesticks, while safety climate moderated the effect of work conditions on both needlesticks and back injuries, although in unexpected ways. DISCUSSION AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our findings suggest that positive work engagement and work conditions contribute to enhanced safety climate and can reduce nurse injuries.

  18. Effect of climatic conditions and irrigation on sugarbeet production in the Vojvodina Province, Serbia and Montenegro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maksimovic, Livija; Dragovic, Svetimir

    2004-01-01

    The climatic conditions in the Vojvodina Province, the main agricultural region of Serbia and Montenegro, are generally favorable for crop production, but the rainfall during growing season is frequently too low or irregular to secure high and stable yields of agricultural crops including sugarbeet. In climatic conditions where there is an uneven amount and distribution of precipitation, as is the case with this region, sugarbeet yield performance is directly dependent on weather conditions. Sugarbeet yields vary not only from one year to another but also from one region to another within the single growing season. The average sugar beet water requirement for the period 1987-2002 was 586 mm, with fairly small variations by either the region or the year. About 10-20% of the total sugarbeet requirement for water comes from reserve soil water, while the rest is provided by rainfall and irrigation. The actual evapotranspiration is 392 mm on the average, ranging from 198 mm in dry years to 542 mm in rainy years. The average precipitation sum for the growing season at Rimski Sancevi site was 360 mm, with high annual variation - from 138 to 683 mm. The average water deficit relative to the sugar beet water requirement was 190 mm, ranging from 24 to 367 mm. The deficit was especially pronounced in July and August, when it ranged between 0 and 282 mm, averaging 146 mm, or 75% of the total requirement. Sugarbeet root yield is directly proportional to the amount of rainfall during growing season and the amount of available water spent for actual evapotranspiration. Relatively high yields have been obtained in years with high amounts of rainfall (from 500 to 650 mm) and favorable distribution of rainfall during growing season. High yields were also obtained in years with relatively low amounts of rainfall but moderately favorable or favorable distribution of rainfall. In the period 1990-1999, root yields in commercial production varied significantly, from the average of 22.7 t

  19. Performance Based Evaluation of Concrete Strength under Various Curing Conditions to Investigate Climate Change Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tae-Kyun Kim

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the manifestation of global warming-induced climate change has been observed through super typhoons, heavy snowfalls, torrential rains, and extended heat waves. These climate changes have been occurring all over the world and natural disasters have caused severe damage and deterioration of concrete structures and infrastructure. In an effort to deal with these problems due to extreme and abnormal climate changes, studies have been conducted to develop construction technologies and design guidelines. Nevertheless, study results applicable to construction sites continue to be ineffective and insufficient. Therefore, this study proposes ways to cope with climate change by considering the effect of concrete curing condition variations on concrete material performance. More specifically, the 3-, 7- and 28-day compressive and split tensile strength properties of concrete mix cured under various climatic factors including temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and sunlight exposure time were evaluated to determine whether the concrete meets the current design requirements. Thereafter, a performance based evaluation (PBE was performed using satisfaction probabilities based on the test values to understand the problems associated with the current mix proportion design practice and to identify countermeasures to deal with climate change-induced curing conditions.

  20. Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

    2018-06-01

    The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

  1. Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

  2. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  3. Environmental risk of climate change and groundwater abstraction on stream ecological conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige; Bøgh, Eva; Jensen, Niels H.

    with DAISY, a one dimensional crop model describing soil water dynamics in the root zone, and MIKE SHE, a distributed groundwater-surface water model. The relative and combined impacts on low flows, groundwater levels, and nitrate leaching are quantified and compared to assess the water resource sensitivity...... and risk to stream ecological conditions. We find low flow and annual discharge to be most impacted by scenarios of climate change, with high variation across climate models (+/- 40% change). Doubling of current groundwater abstraction rates reduces annual discharge by approximately 20%, with higher...... flows and groundwater levels are of interest, as they relate to aquatic habitat and nitrate leaching, respectively. This study evaluates the risk to stream ecological conditions for a lowland Danish catchment under multiple scenarios of climate change and groundwater abstraction. Projections of future...

  4. Effects of Climatic Conditions and Management Practices on Agricultural Carbon and Water Budgets in the Inland Pacific Northwest USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, Jinshu; Waldo, Sarah; Pressley, Shelley N.; Russell, Eric S.; O'Keeffe, Patrick T.; Pan, William L.; Huggins, David R.; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Brooks, Erin S.; Lamb, Brian K.

    2017-12-01

    Cropland is an important land cover influencing global carbon and water cycles. Variability of agricultural carbon and water fluxes depends on crop species, management practices, soil characteristics, and climatic conditions. In the context of climate change, it is critical to quantify the long-term effects of these environmental drivers and farming activities on carbon and water dynamics. Twenty site-years of carbon and water fluxes covering a large precipitation gradient and a variety of crop species and management practices were measured in the inland Pacific Northwest using the eddy covariance method. The rain-fed fields were net carbon sinks, while the irrigated site was close to carbon neutral during the winter wheat crop years. Sites growing spring crops were either carbon sinks, sources, or neutral, varying with crops, rainfall zones, and tillage practices. Fluxes were more sensitive to variability in precipitation than temperature: annual carbon and water fluxes increased with the increasing precipitation while only respiration increased with temperature in the high-rainfall area. Compared to a nearby rain-fed site, irrigation improved winter wheat production but resulted in large losses of carbon and water to the atmosphere. Compared to conventional tillage, no-till had significantly lower respiration but resulted in slightly lower yields and water use efficiency over 4 years. Under future climate change, it is expected that more carbon fixation by crops and evapotranspiration would occur in a warmer and wetter environment.

  5. Generation of synthetic surface electromyography signals under fatigue conditions for varying force inputs using feedback control algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venugopal, G; Deepak, P; Ghosh, Diptasree M; Ramakrishnan, S

    2017-11-01

    Surface electromyography is a non-invasive technique used for recording the electrical activity of neuromuscular systems. These signals are random, complex and multi-component. There are several techniques to extract information about the force exerted by muscles during any activity. This work attempts to generate surface electromyography signals for various magnitudes of force under isometric non-fatigue and fatigue conditions using a feedback model. The model is based on existing current distribution, volume conductor relations, the feedback control algorithm for rate coding and generation of firing pattern. The result shows that synthetic surface electromyography signals are highly complex in both non-fatigue and fatigue conditions. Furthermore, surface electromyography signals have higher amplitude and lower frequency under fatigue condition. This model can be used to study the influence of various signal parameters under fatigue and non-fatigue conditions.

  6. A SVDD and K-Means Based Early Warning Method for Dual-Rotor Equipment under Time-Varying Operating Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhinong Jiang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Under frequently time-varying operating conditions, equipment with dual rotors like gas turbines is influenced by two rotors with different rotating speeds. Alarm methods of fixed threshold are unable to consider the influences of time-varying operating conditions. Hence, those methods are not suitable for monitoring dual-rotor equipment. An early warning method for dual-rotor equipment under time-varying operating conditions is proposed in this paper. The influences of time-varying rotating speeds of dual rotors on alarm thresholds have been considered. Firstly, the operating conditions are divided into several limited intervals according to rotating speeds of dual rotors. Secondly, the train data within each interval is processed by SVDD and the allowable ranges (i.e., the alarm threshold of the vibration are determined. The alarm threshold of each interval of operating conditions is obtained. The alarm threshold can be expressed as a sphere, whose controlling parameters are the coordinate of the center and the radius. Then, the cluster center of the test data, whose alarm state is to be judged, can be extracted through K-means. Finally, the alarm state can be obtained by comparing the cluster center with the corresponding sphere. Experiments are conducted to validate the proposed method.

  7. Adapting to Mother Nature's changing climatic conditions: Flexible stocking for enhancing profitability of Wyoming ranchers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranching is a dynamic business in which profitability is impacted by changing weather and climatic conditions. A ranch-level model using a representative ranch in southeastern Wyoming was used to compare economic outcomes from growing season precipitation scenarios of: 1) historical precipitation da...

  8. Long-term sustainability of the landscape in new climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubeckova, D.; Krocova, S.

    2017-10-01

    The long-term sustainability of the landscape and its natural environment must be the decisive task of the public administration and, in the wider concept, of every citizen. In new climatic conditions, this need has intensified. The following article suggests in a basic scope whether the above-mentioned task can be accomplished, and what means of solution should be used.

  9. Simple model for daily evaporation from fallow tilled soil under spring conditions in a temperate climate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boesten, J.J.T.I.; Stroosnijder, L.

    1986-01-01

    A simple parametric model is presented to estimate daily evaporation from fallow tilled soil under spring conditions in a temperate climate. In this model, cumulative actual evaporation during a drying cycle is directly proportional to the square root of cumulative potential evaporation. The model

  10. A New Framework to Evaluate Urban Design Using Urban Microclimatic Modeling in Future Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dasaraden Mauree

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Building more energy-efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effects of climate change and anticipate living conditions in future climate scenarios requires the development of new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architects and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099 were run, as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P. We analyzed the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of buildings and determined the relevance of taking into account the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations confirmed that in the future, there will be a constant decrease in the heating demand, while the cooling demand will substantially increase. Significantly, it was further demonstrated that when the local urban climate was taken into account, there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand, but also that a set of proposed Minergie-P renovations were not sufficient to achieve resilient buildings. We discuss the implication of this work for the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighborhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspectives regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for future urban areas.

  11. Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuang, Qianlai [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Schlosser, Courtney [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Melillo, Jerry [Marine Biological Lab. (MBL), Woods Hole, MA (United States); Walter, Katey [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2015-09-15

    Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  12. Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrot, Lucile; Destouni, Georgia

    2015-01-01

    Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.

  13. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  14. Energy Saving Potential of PCMs in Buildings under Future Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdo Abdullah Ahmed Gassar

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Energy consumption reduction under changing climate conditions is a major challenge in buildings design, where excessive energy consumption creates an economic and environmental burden. Improving thermal performance of the buildings through support applying phase change material (PCM is a promising strategy for reducing building energy consumption under future climate change. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the energy saving potentials in buildings under future climate conditions in the humid and snowy regions in the hot continental and humid subtropical climates of the east Asia (Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong when various PCMs with different phase change temperatures are applied to a lightweight building envelope. Methodology in this work is implemented in two phases: firstly, investigation of energy saving potentials in buildings through inclusion of three types of PCMs with different phase temperatures into the building envelop separately and use weather file in the present (2017; and, secondly, evaluation of the effect of future climate change on the performance of PCMs by analyzing energy saving potentials of PCMs with 2020, 2050 and 2080 weather data. The results show that the inclusion of PCM into the building envelope is a promising strategy to increase the energy performance in buildings during both heating and cooling seasons in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong under future climate conditions. The energy savings achieved by using PCMs in those regions are electricity savings of 4.48–8.21%, 3.81–9.69%, and 1.94–5.15%, and gas savings of 1.65–16.59%, 7.60–61.76%, and 62.07–93.33% in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong, respectively, for the years 2017, 2020, 2050 and 2080. In addition, BioPCM and RUBITHERMPCM are the most efficient for improving thermal performance and saving energy in buildings in the tested regions and years.

  15. Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Hoeke, Ron K.

    2017-10-01

    Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider

  16. Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Hoeke, Ron

    2017-01-01

    Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider

  17. Potential changes in the extreme climate conditions at the regional scale: from observed data to modelling approaches and towards probabilistic climate change information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gachon, P.; Radojevic, M.; Harding, A.; Saad, C.; Nguyen, V.T.V.

    2008-01-01

    The changes in the characteristics of extreme climate conditions are one of the most critical challenges for all ecosystems, human being and infrastructure, in the context of the on-going global climate change. However, extremes information needed for impacts studies cannot be obtained directly from coarse scale global climate models (GCMs), due mainly to their difficulties to incorporate regional scale feedbacks and processes responsible in part for the occurrence, intensity and duration of extreme events. Downscaling approaches, namely statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques (i.e. SD and RCM), have emerged as useful tools to develop high resolution climate change information, in particular for extremes, as those are theoretically more capable to take into account regional/local forcings and their feedbacks from large scale influences as they are driven with GCM synoptic variables. Nevertheless, in spite of the potential added values from downscaling methods (statistical and dynamical), a rigorous assessment of these methods are needed as inherent difficulties to simulate extremes are still present. In this paper, different series of RCM and SD simulations using three different GCMs are presented and evaluated with respect to observed values over the current period and over a river basin in southern Quebec, with future ensemble runs, i.e. centered over 2050s (i.e. 2041-2070 period using the SRES A2 emission scenario). Results suggest that the downscaling performance over the baseline period significantly varies between the two downscaling techniques and over various seasons with more regular reliable simulated values with SD technique for temperature than for RCM runs, while both approaches produced quite similar temperature changes in the future from median values with more divergence for extremes. For precipitation, less accurate information is obtained compared to observed data, and with more differences among models with higher uncertainties in the

  18. TRANSFORMATION OF PB(II FROM CERRUSITE TO CHLOROPYROMORPHITE IN THE PRESENCE OF HYDROXYAPATITE UNDER VARYING CONDITIONS OF PH

    Science.gov (United States)

    The soluble Pb concentration and formation of chloropyromorphite [Pb5(PO4)3Cl] were monitored during the reaction of cerrusite (PbCO3), a highly bioavailable soil Pb species, and hydroxyapatite [Ca5(PO4)3OH] at various P/Pb molar ratios under constant and dynamic pH conditions. ...

  19. Analytical solution for multi-species contaminant transport in finite media with time-varying boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Most analytical solutions available for the equations governing the advective-dispersive transport of multiple solutes undergoing sequential first-order decay reactions have been developed for infinite or semi-infinite spatial domains and steady-state boundary conditions. In this work we present an ...

  20. Foam Core Particleboards with Intumescent FRT Veneer: Cone Calorimeter Testing With Varying Adhesives, Surface Layer Thicknesses, and Processing Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Dietenberger; Johannes Welling; Ali Shalbafan

    2014-01-01

    Intumescent FRT Veneers adhered to the surface of foam core particleboard to provide adequate fire protection were evaluated by means of cone calorimeter tests (ASTM E1354). The foam core particleboards were prepared with variations in surface layer treatment, adhesives, surface layer thicknesses, and processing conditions. Ignitability, heat release rate profile, peak...

  1. Design parameters of a non-air-conditioned cinema hall for thermal comfort under arid-zone climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tiwari, G.N. (Indian Inst. of Tech., New Delhi (India). Centre for Energy Studies); Lugani, N. (Indian Inst. of Tech., New Delhi (India). Centre for Energy Studies); Singh, A.K. (Indian Inst. of Tech., New Delhi (India). Centre for Energy Studies)

    1993-01-01

    In this communication, a design of a cinema hall suitable for climatic conditions in an arid zone has been presented. The various cooling techniques, namely evaporative cooling, wind tower, ventilation/infiltration and natural cooling, have been incorporated in the design to achieve thermal comfort during the period of operation. The design parameters have been optimized on the basis of numerical computations after establishing an energy balance for each component of a cinema hall. It is observed that cooling treatment, i.e., a wind tower with a cooling pool on the roof provides reasonable thermal comfort inside the enclosure. (orig.)

  2. The influence of climatic conditions changes on grain yield in Winter Triticale (X Triticosecale Wittm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionuț RACZ

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is making out the influence of climatic changes on grain yield of winter triticale in relation with applied fertilizer. The influence of environmental conditions on growing and development of triticale plants depends of grow stages and their duration. During five experimental years (2010-2015 the climatic conditions were different year to year, with an accentuated heating trend, influencing plant phenology, accelerating or slowing down some important processes disturbing grain yield formation. The influence of drought is more accentuated by heating stress and prolonging of these conditions during the main phenological processes have a negative influence on plant growth or development with effect on the grain yield formation process.

  3. Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

    2011-01-01

    Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

  4. Spinning in different directions: western rock lobster larval condition varies with eddy polarity, but does their diet?

    OpenAIRE

    O'Rorke, R.; Jeffs, A. G.; Wang, M.; Waite, A. M.; Beckley, L. E.; Lavery, S. D.

    2015-01-01

    Larvae of the western rock lobster (Panulirus cygnus) that occur in the south-east Indian Ocean offshore of Western Australia have been found to be in poorer nutritional condition in anticyclonic compared with cyclonic mesoscale eddies. The reason for this is unknown, but culture-based experiments have shown that diet composition and water temperature are key determinants of phyllosoma health and survival. Whether differences in prey composition are the cause of poor phyllosoma co...

  5. Are antimicrobial defences in bird eggs related to climatic conditions associated with risk of trans-shell microbial infection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horrocks, Nicholas Pc; Hine, Kathryn; Hegemann, Arne; Ndithia, Henry K; Shobrak, Mohammed; Ostrowski, Stéphane; Williams, Joseph B; Matson, Kevin D; Tieleman, B Irene

    2014-01-01

    All bird eggs are exposed to microbes in the environment, which if transmitted to the developing embryo, could cause hatching failure. However, the risk of trans-shell infection varies with environmental conditions and is higher for eggs laid in wetter environments. This might relate to generally higher microbial abundances and diversity in more humid environments, including on the surface of eggshells, as well as the need for moisture to facilitate microbial penetration of the eggshell. To protect against microbial infection, the albumen of avian eggs contains antimicrobial proteins, including lysozyme and ovotransferrin. We tested whether lysozyme and ovotransferrin activities varied in eggs of larks (Alaudidae) living along an arid-mesic gradient of environmental aridity, which we used as a proxy for risk of trans-shell infection. Contrary to expectations, lysozyme activity was highest in eggs from hotter, more arid locations, where we predicted the risk of trans-shell infection would be lower. Ovotransferrin concentrations did not vary with climatic factors. Temperature was a much better predictor of antimicrobial protein activity than precipitation, a result inconsistent with studies stressing the importance of moisture for trans-shell infection. Our study raises interesting questions about the links between temperature and lysozyme activity in eggs, but we find no support for the hypothesis that antimicrobial protein deposition is higher in eggs laid in wetter environments.

  6. Worsened physical condition due to climate change contributes to the increasing hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jiabi; Shen, Jian; Park, Kyeong; Wang, Ya Ping; Yu, Xin

    2018-07-15

    There are increasing concerns about the impact of worsened physical condition on hypoxia in a variety of coastal systems, especially considering the influence of changing climate. In this study, an EOF analysis of the DO data for 1985-2012, a long-term numerical simulation of vertical exchange, and statistical analysis were applied to understand the underlying mechanisms for the variation of DO condition in Chesapeake Bay. Three types of analysis consistently demonstrated that both biological and physical conditions contribute equally to seasonal and interannual variations of the hypoxic condition in Chesapeake Bay. We found the physical condition (vertical exchange+temperature) determines the spatial and seasonal pattern of the hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay. The EOF analysis showed that the first mode, which was highly related to the physical forcings and correlated with the summer hypoxia volume, can be well explained by seasonal and interannual variations of physical variables and biological activities, while the second mode is significantly correlated with the estuarine circulation and river discharge. The weakened vertical exchange and increased water temperature since the 1980s demonstrated a worsened physical condition over the past few decades. Under changing climate (e.g., warming, accelerated sea-level rise, altered precipitation and wind patterns), Chesapeake Bay is likely to experience a worsened physical condition, which will amplify the negative impact of anthropogenic inputs on eutrophication and consequently require more efforts for nutrient reduction to improve the water quality condition in Chesapeake Bay. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Effects of varying environmental conditions on emissivity spectra of bulk lunar soils: Application to Diviner thermal infrared observations of the Moon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donaldson Hanna, K. L.; Greenhagen, B. T.; Patterson, W. R.; Pieters, C. M.; Mustard, J. F.; Bowles, N. E.; Paige, D. A.; Glotch, T. D.; Thompson, C.

    2017-02-01

    Currently, few thermal infrared measurements exist of fine particulate (samples (e.g. minerals, mineral mixtures, rocks, meteorites, and lunar soils) measured under simulated lunar conditions. Such measurements are fundamental for interpreting thermal infrared (TIR) observations by the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment (Diviner) onboard NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter as well as future TIR observations of the Moon and other airless bodies. In this work, we present thermal infrared emissivity measurements of a suite of well-characterized Apollo lunar soils and a fine particulate (sample as we systematically vary parameters that control the near-surface environment in our vacuum chamber (atmospheric pressure, incident solar-like radiation, and sample cup temperature). The atmospheric pressure is varied between ambient (1000 mbar) and vacuum (radiation is varied between 52 and 146 mW/cm2, and the sample cup temperature is varied between 325 and 405 K. Spectral changes are characterized as each parameter is varied, which highlight the sensitivity of thermal infrared emissivity spectra to the atmospheric pressure and the incident solar-like radiation. Finally spectral measurements of Apollo 15 and 16 bulk lunar soils are compared with Diviner thermal infrared observations of the Apollo 15 and 16 sampling sites. This comparison allows us to constrain the temperature and pressure conditions that best simulate the near-surface environment of the Moon for future laboratory measurements and to better interpret lunar surface compositions as observed by Diviner.

  8. Tolerance and potential for adaptation of a Baltic Sea rockweed under predicted climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rugiu, Luca; Manninen, Iita; Rothäusler, Eva; Jormalainen, Veijo

    2018-03-01

    Climate change is threating species' persistence worldwide. To predict species responses to climate change we need information not just on their environmental tolerance but also on its adaptive potential. We tested how the foundation species of rocky littoral habitats, Fucus vesiculosus, responds to combined hyposalinity and warming projected to the Baltic Sea by 2070-2099. We quantified responses of replicated populations originating from the entrance, central, and marginal Baltic regions. Using replicated individuals, we tested for the presence of within-population tolerance variation. Future conditions hampered growth and survival of the central and marginal populations whereas the entrance populations fared well. Further, both the among- and within-population variation in responses to climate change indicated existence of genetic variation in tolerance. Such standing genetic variation provides the raw material necessary for adaptation to a changing environment, which may eventually ensure the persistence of the species in the inner Baltic Sea. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The Climate Effects of Deforestation the Amazon Rainforest under Global Warming Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werth, D.; Avissar, R.

    2006-12-01

    Replacement of tropical rainforests has been observed to have a strong drying effect in Amazon simulations, with effects reaching high into the atmospheric column and into the midlatitudes. The drying effects of deforestation, however, can be moderated by the effects of global warming, which should accelerate the hydrologic cycle of the Amazon. The effects of a prescribed, time-varying Amazon deforestation done in conjunction with a steady, moderate increase in CO2 concentrations are determined using a climate model. The model agrees with previous studies when each forcing is applied individually - compared to a control run, Amazon deforestation decreases the local precipitation and global warming increases it. When both are applied, however, the precipitation and other hydrologic variables decrease, but to a lesser extent than when deforestation alone was applied. In effect, the two effects act opposite to one another and bring the simulated climate closer to that of the control.

  10. Quantifying conditional risks for water and energy systems using climate information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2016-12-01

    There has been a growing recognition of the multi-scale spatio-temporal organization of climate dynamics, and its implications for predictable, structured risk exposure to populations and infrastructure systems. At the most base level is an understanding that there are some identifiable climate modes, such as ENSO, that are associated with such outcomes. This has led to the emergence of a small cottage industry of analysts who relate different "climate indices" to specific regional outcomes. Such efforts and the associated media interest in these simplified "stories" have led to an increasing appreciation of the phenomenon, and some formal and informal efforts at decision making using such information. However, as was demonstrated through the 2014-16 El Nino forecasting season, many climate scientists over-emphasized the potential risks, while others cautioned the media as to the caveats and uncertainties associated with assuming that the forecasts of ENSO and the expected teleconnections may pan out. At least in certain sectors and regions, significant efforts or expectations as to outcomes were put in place, and some were beneficial, while others failed to manifest. Climate informed predictions for water and energy systems can be thought of as efforts to infer conditional distributions of specific outcomes given information on climate state. Invariably, the climate state may be presented as a very high dimensional spatial set of variables, with limited temporal sampling, while the water and energy attributes may be regional and constitute a much smaller dimension. One may, of course, be interested in the fact that the same climate state may lead to synchronous positive and negative effects across many locations, as may be expected under mid-latitude stationary and transient wave interaction. In this talk, I will provide examples of a few modern statistical and machine learning tools that allow a decomposition of the high dimensional climate state and its relation

  11. An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

    2016-12-01

    The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the

  12. Variability of contrail formation conditions and the implications for policies to reduce the climate impacts of aviation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, Victoria; Noland, Robert B.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes an approach to balance the climate benefits of contrail reduction against the penalties incurred when cruise altitudes are restricted. Altitude restrictions are targeted by selecting, for each 6-h period, the altitude that provides the greatest reduction in contrail for the lowest increase in carbon dioxide emission. Calculations are for western Europe. This paper discusses the variability in contrail formation conditions in the region and presents contrail reductions and carbon dioxide emission increases obtained with this optimised approach, which compare favourably with fixed altitude restrictions. A new method is also developed to estimate contrail fractions within three-dimensional grids. Conclusions discuss potential operational issues associated with a varying altitude restriction policy. (Author)

  13. Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

  14. Evolution of deformation structures under varying loading conditions followed in situ by high angular resolution 3DXRD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pantleon, Wolfgang; Wejdemann, Christian; Jakobsen, B.

    2009-01-01

    copper to different loading conditions are presented: during uninterrupted tensile deformation, formation of subgrains can be observed concurrently with broadening of the Bragg reflection shortly after onset of plastic deformation. With continued tensile deformation, the subgrain structure develops...... intermittently. When the traction is terminated, stress relaxation occurs and number, size and orientation of subgrains are found to be constant. The subgrain structure freezes and only a minor clean-up of the dislocation structure is observed. When changing the tensile direction after pre-deformation in tension...

  15. Mean versus extreme climate in the Mediterranean region and its sensitivity to future global warming conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paeth, H.; Hense, A. [Meteorological Inst., Univ. Bonn (Germany)

    2005-06-01

    The Mediterranean region (MTR) has been supposed to be very sensitive to changes in land surface and atmospheric greenhouse-gas (GHG) concentrations. Particularly, an intensification of climate extremes may be associated with severe socio-economic implications. Here, we present an analysis of climate mean and extreme conditions in this subtropical area based on regional climate model experiments, simulating the present-day and possible future climate. The analysis of extreme values (EVs) is based on the assumption that the extremes of daily precipitation and near-surface temperature are well fitted by the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Return values of extreme daily events are determined using the method of L-moments. Particular emphasis is laid on the evaluation of the return values with respect to the uncertainty range of the estimate as derived from a Monte Carlo sampling approach. During the most recent 25 years the MTR has become dryer in spring but more humid especially in the western part in autumn and winter. At the same time, the whole region has been subject to a substantial warming. The strongest rainfall extremes are simulated in autumn over the Mediterranean Sea around Italy. Temperature extremes are most pronounced over the land masses, especially over northern Africa. Given the large uncertainty of the EV estimate, only 1-year return values are further analysed. During recent decades, statistically significant changes in extremes are only found for temperature. Future climate conditions may come along with a decrease in mean and extreme precipitation during the cold season, whereas an intensification of the hydrological cycle is predicted in summer and autumn. Temperature is predominantly affected over the Iberian Peninsula and the eastern part of the MTR. In many grid boxes, the signals are blurred out due to the large amount of uncertainty in the EV estimate. Thus, a careful analysis is required when making inferences about the future

  16. Attribution of soil moisture dynamics - Initial conditions vs. atmospheric forcing and the role of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2014-05-01

    The world's climate has started to change more quickly in recent decades and a stronger and faster shift is expected in the future. Even if the public perception is mostly limited to a widespread warming, climate change is a complex phenomenon impacting numerous variables of the climate system in different ways, also depending on time and location. Furthermore, extreme events may change more drastically than the mean climate. There is growing evidence that climate change is mostly man-made. However, it is still a matter of debate to which extent changes of the mean climate but also of particular (extreme) events are due to human impact. These questions are addressed by the growing science of climate attribution. Pointing out the anthropogenic influence on extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heatwave or the 2002 floods in Central Europe may help to support adaptation to climate change. This study investigates soil moisture in Europe in the context of climate change, because of its role as a key variable of the land-climate system and its practical importance for instance to agriculture. To derive soil moisture dynamics from 1984-2007 we use E-OBS forcing data together with SRB radiation data and employ an observation-based approach where soil moisture is computed from a water balance equation in which runoff (normalized with precipitation) and ET (normalized with net radiation) are simple functions of soil moisture. The constant runoff function is prescribed for the whole continent, and the ET function is calibrated using temperature data. After performing a validation of the inferred soil moisture data we use it in order to analyze changes in the likelihood of droughts. Our results show increased drought risk especially in north-eastern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereby the probability of extreme droughts increases stronger as for mild dryness episodes. To assess the potential for drought forecasting we furthermore study the importance of the initial

  17. Optimization of Photovoltaic Electrolyzer Hybrid systems; taking into account the effect of climate conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sayedin, Farid; Maroufmashat, Azadeh; Sattari, Sourena; Elkamel, Ali; Fowler, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The optimal size of directly coupled Photovoltaic–Electrolyzer (PV/EL) is studied. • The effect of climate condition on the performance of PV/EL is studied. • PV/EL energy transfer loss and the levelized cost of hydrogen production minimized. • The model is applied to locations with different climate and solar irradiations. • Solar to electricity/electricity to hydrogen/solar to hydrogen efficiencies are derived. - Abstract: Solar energy will make a valuable contribution for power generation in the future. However the intermittency of solar energy has become an important issue in the utilization of PV system, especially small scale distributed solar energy conversion systems. The issue can be addressed through the management of production and storage of the energy in the form of hydrogen. The hydrogen can be produced by solar photovoltaic (PV) powered electrolysis of water. The amount of transferred energy to an electrolyzer from a PV module is a function of the distance between maximum power points (MPP) of PV module and the electrolyzer operating points. The distance can be minimized by optimizing the number of series and parallel units of the electrolyzer. However the maximum power points are subject to PV module characteristics, solar irradiation and ambient temperature. This means the climate condition can substantially influence the MPP and therefore the optimal size of the PV–Electrolyzer (PV/EL) system. On the other hand, system size can affect the levelized cost of hydrogen production as well. In this paper, the impact of climate conditions on the optimal size and operating conditions of a direct coupled photovoltaic–electrolyzer system has been studied. For this purpose, the optimal size of electrolyzer for six cities which have different climate condition is obtained by considering two solution scenarios, regarding two objectives which are annual energy transfer loss and levelized costs of hydrogen production and then the

  18. Hydro-climatic conditions and thermoelectric electricity generation – Part I: Development of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koch, Hagen; Vögele, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    In recent years there have been several heat waves affecting the use of thermoelectric power plants, e.g. in Europe and the U.S. In this paper the linkage between hydro-climatic conditions and possible electricity generation restrictions is described. The coupling of hydrological models and a power plant model is presented. In this approach each power plant is considered separately with its technical specifications. Also environmental regulations, e.g. permissible rise in the cooling water temperature, are considered for the respective power plant. The hydrological models developed to simulate river runoff and water temperature are also site specific. The approach presented is applied to Krümmel nuclear power plant in Germany. Analysed are the uncertainties with regard to electricity generation restrictions on account of climatic developments and corresponding higher water temperatures and low flows. Overall, increased water temperatures and declining river runoff lead to more frequent and more severe generation restrictions. It is concluded that the site-specific approach is necessary to reliably simulate power plants water demand, river runoff and water temperature. Using a simulation time step of one day, electricity generation restrictions are significantly higher than for simulations at monthly time step. - Highlights: • An approach to assess climate effects on electricity generation is presented. • Site specific models for power plants, water temperature and discharge are used. • Monthly and daily simulation time-steps give different results. • Climate change effects on generation depend on cooling system and climate scenario

  19. The cold climate geomorphology of the Eastern Cape Drakensberg: A reevaluation of past climatic conditions during the last glacial cycle in Southern Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Mills, SC; Barrows, TT; Telfer, MW; Fifield, LK

    2017-01-01

    publisher: Elsevier articletitle: The cold climate geomorphology of the Eastern Cape Drakensberg: A reevaluation of past climatic conditions during the last glacial cycle in Southern Africa journaltitle: Geomorphology articlelink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.11.011 content_type: article copyright: Crown Copyright © 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Goeteborg (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report is concerned with the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during periglacial and glacial climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Vidstrand et al. 2010/. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle at Laxemar. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 13,000 years. The simulation results comprise pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance and the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties

  1. Assessment of tourism and recreation destinations under climate change conditions in Austria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matzarakis, Andreas; Haemmerle, Martin [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Endler, Christina [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Research Center Human Biometeorology, Freiburg (Germany). German Weather Service; Muthers, Stefan [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics; Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research; Koch, Elisabeth [Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamcis, Vienna (Austria)

    2012-04-15

    Tourism and recreation are important economic factors which are directly connected to weather and climate of a specific destination. Based on the observation network of the Central Institute of Meteorology and Geodynamics of Austria (ZAMG), data of 37 stations has been collected and analysed for tourism and recreation purposes. The analysis was based on long term data sets which were processed in relevant ways for tourism and recreation, resulting in frequency diagrams of Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and precipitation. Additionally, we prepared the results according to the demands of tourism and recreation authorities and industry using the Climate-Tourism/Transfer-Information-Scheme (CTIS). Applying data from the regional climate models REMO and CLM we can provide information on future climate conditions in Austria's recreation areas. We chose two different time slices (2021-2050, 2071-2100) and IPCC emission scenarios (A1B, B1). The data was processed based on the threshold factors which are included in the CTIS (e.g. thermal comfort, heat stress, cold stress, sunshine, etc.). For the time slice 2021-2050 only moderate changes can be expected. But for 2071-2100 one can observe a distinct decrease of cold stress and the skiing potential. On the other hand, moderate increases of thermal comfort, heat stress, sultriness and sunshine are expected. No tendencies can be seen in precipitation and wind conditions. (orig.)

  2. Investigating the emerging role of comparative proteomics in the search for new biomarkers of metal contamination under varying abiotic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vellinger, Céline, E-mail: celine.vellinger@gmail.com [Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Environnements Continentaux (LIEC), CNRS UMR 7360, Université de Lorraine – Metz (France); Sohm, Bénédicte, E-mail: benedicte.sohm@univ-lorraine.fr [Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Environnements Continentaux (LIEC), CNRS UMR 7360, Université de Lorraine – Metz (France); Parant, Marc, E-mail: marc.parant@univ-lorraine.fr [Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Environnements Continentaux (LIEC), CNRS UMR 7360, Université de Lorraine – Metz (France); Immel, Françoise, E-mail: Francoise.Immel@u-bourgogne.fr [Biogéosciences, CNRS UMR 6282, Université de Bourgogne – Dijon (France); Usseglio-Polatera, Philippe, E-mail: philippe.usseglio-polatera@univ-lorraine.fr [Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Environnements Continentaux (LIEC), CNRS UMR 7360, Université de Lorraine – Metz (France)

    2016-08-15

    This study aims at investigating the potential use of comparative proteomics as a multi-marker approach of metal contamination, taking into account the potential confounding effect of water temperature. The major objective was to identify combinations of proteins specifically responding to a given metal, even if included in a metal mixture. The diagnostic approach was performed via the comparative analysis of protein expression on spot mapping provided by adult males of Gammarus pulex (Amphipoda, Crustacea) respectively exposed to arsenate (As), cadmium (Cd) or a binary mixture of these metals (AsCd) at three realistic temperatures (5, 10 and 15 °C). Proteomic expression analysis was performed by Differential in-Gel Electrophoresis (2D-DiGE), and completed by an adapted inferential statistical approach. Combinations of under/over-expressed protein spots discriminated the metal identity. However, none of these spots discriminated both the individual metal effect (As or Cd) and its effect in metal mixture (AsCd) whatever the tested temperature. Some limits of the two-dimensional analysis of protein spot maps in G. pulex have been highlighted: (i) the presence of contaminating peptides and/or abundant “déja-vu” proteins which can mask the responses of other proteins of interest or (ii) the presence of post-translational modifications. An optimization of the experimental design (especially during the sample preparation) has been described for future investigations. This study has also highlighted (i) the importance of precisely identifying the protein spots of interest to avoid erroneous interpretations in terms of action mechanisms of chemicals and (ii) the importance of working under controlled laboratory conditions with a temperature close to 10 °C. In such conditions, we have demonstrated a higher impact of As than Cd on the energetic metabolism of Gammarus. This As impact is reduced in AsCd mixture confirming the antagonistic interaction of this binary

  3. Investigating the emerging role of comparative proteomics in the search for new biomarkers of metal contamination under varying abiotic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vellinger, Céline; Sohm, Bénédicte; Parant, Marc; Immel, Françoise; Usseglio-Polatera, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    This study aims at investigating the potential use of comparative proteomics as a multi-marker approach of metal contamination, taking into account the potential confounding effect of water temperature. The major objective was to identify combinations of proteins specifically responding to a given metal, even if included in a metal mixture. The diagnostic approach was performed via the comparative analysis of protein expression on spot mapping provided by adult males of Gammarus pulex (Amphipoda, Crustacea) respectively exposed to arsenate (As), cadmium (Cd) or a binary mixture of these metals (AsCd) at three realistic temperatures (5, 10 and 15 °C). Proteomic expression analysis was performed by Differential in-Gel Electrophoresis (2D-DiGE), and completed by an adapted inferential statistical approach. Combinations of under/over-expressed protein spots discriminated the metal identity. However, none of these spots discriminated both the individual metal effect (As or Cd) and its effect in metal mixture (AsCd) whatever the tested temperature. Some limits of the two-dimensional analysis of protein spot maps in G. pulex have been highlighted: (i) the presence of contaminating peptides and/or abundant “déja-vu” proteins which can mask the responses of other proteins of interest or (ii) the presence of post-translational modifications. An optimization of the experimental design (especially during the sample preparation) has been described for future investigations. This study has also highlighted (i) the importance of precisely identifying the protein spots of interest to avoid erroneous interpretations in terms of action mechanisms of chemicals and (ii) the importance of working under controlled laboratory conditions with a temperature close to 10 °C. In such conditions, we have demonstrated a higher impact of As than Cd on the energetic metabolism of Gammarus. This As impact is reduced in AsCd mixture confirming the antagonistic interaction of this binary

  4. An empirical assessment of driver motivation and emotional states in perceived safety margins under varied driving conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu; Kaber, David B

    2013-01-01

    Motivation models in driving behaviour postulate that driver motives and emotional states dictate risk tolerance under various traffic conditions. The present study used time and driver performance-based payment systems to manipulate motivation and risk-taking behaviour. Ten participants drove to a predefined location in a simulated driving environment. Traffic patterns (density and velocity) were manipulated to cause driver behaviour adjustments due to the need to conform with the social norms of the roadway. The driving environment complexity was investigated as a mediating factor in risk tolerance. Results revealed the performance-based payment system to closely relate to risk-taking behaviour as compared with the time-based payment system. Drivers conformed with social norms associated with specific traffic patterns. Higher roadway complexity led to a more conservative safety margins and speeds. This research contributes to the further development of motivational models of driver behaviour. This study provides empirical justification for two motivation factors in driver risk-taking decisions, including compliance with social norm and emotions triggered by incentives. Environment complexity was identified as a mediating factor in motivational behaviour model. This study also recommended safety margin measures sensitive to changes in driver risk tolerance.

  5. Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selsted, Merete Bang

    on ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions, shows that extended summer drought in combination with elevated temperature will ensure permanent dryer soil conditions, which decreases carbon turnover, while elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations will increase...... carbon turnover. In the full future climate scenario, carbon turnover is over all expected to increase and the heathland to become a source of atmospheric CO2. The methodology of static chamber CO2 flux measurements and applying the technology in a FACE (free air CO2 enrichment) facility is a challenge...... on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the CO2 soil-atmosphere gradient....

  6. Comparison of winter wheat yield sensitivity to climate variables under irrigated and rain-fed conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Dengpan; Shen, Yanjun; Zhang, He; Moiwo, Juana P.; Qi, Yongqing; Wang, Rende; Pei, Hongwei; Zhang, Yucui; Shen, Huitao

    2016-09-01

    Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of determining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator), were used to simulate the yield of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under well irrigated (CFG) and rain-fed (YY) conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain (NCP). The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCP. The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCP. There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water (CFG and YY) conditions. While a temperature increase of 2°C was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1°C decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rainfed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈3.5% per 60 ppm (parts per million) increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to 560 ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.

  7. Modulating the phenology and yield of camelina sativa L. by varying sowing dates under water deficit stress conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ejaz Ahmad Waraich

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Camelina (Camelina sativa L. an oilseed crop has emerged as a potential source for biofuels and bio-products. Camelina is an economic crop due to its less requirements of agronomic inputs as compared to other oilseed crops. However, it is direly required to evaluate the adaptability of camelina and characterize its production potential. Therefore, a pot experiment was carried out in rain out shelter at the Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan to optimize appropriate sowing date with respect to growth and yield potential of different genotypes of camelina under drought stress. Completely randomized design with factorial arrangements was adopted. Three sowing dates with the difference of 10 days (November 13 th, 23rd and December 03rd, two water regimes (100% FC and 60% FC and two camlena genotypes (611 and 618 were used in this experiment. Results indicated that camelina growth and yield related traits were significantly influenced by difference in sowing dates and water regimes. Maximum leaf area index (LAI, crop growth rate (CGR, leaf area duration (LAD, net assimilation rate (NAR and yield related traits were recorded with early sowing (13th November which was followed by sowing on 23rd November and least values of these variables were recorded in late sowing (December 03rd. Plants grown under water deficit conditions (60% FC showed the decreased values of LAI, CGR, LAD, NAR and yield related attributes as compared to normally irrigated plants (100% FC. However, the response of genotypes of camelina 611 and 618 remained statistically similar to each other.

  8. Evaluation of growth and flowering potential of rosa hybrida cultivars under Faisalabad climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nadeem, M.; Khan, M.A.; Riaz, A.

    2011-01-01

    Exotic cultivars of hybrid roses respond uncertainly to new habitat. It is necessary to explore the potential of the introduced cultivars to judge the suitability in a new habitat. In the present study, nine Rosa hybrida cultivars including Autumn Sunset, Ice Berg, Paradise, Angel Face, Louise Odier, Casino, Grand Margina, Handel and Gruss-an-Teplitz were evaluated for growth and yield attributed under the climatic conditions of Faisalabad. Results indicated that there was decreasing trend in the growth and flowering of the bushes as the temperature increased above 32 degree C and humidity decreased to 29 %. Number of flowers per bush and diameter of flower decreased as the temperature increased and humidity decreased in contrast to increment in height of the plant and num ber of primary branches per plant in succeeding months. Interaction between yield traits and months was also significant. Overall, significant variations were observed in each cultivar for length and number of petals per flower, number of prickles, fragrance, flower persistence life and color, bush shape and overall performance with respect to climatic conditions of Faisalabad. It is concluded that the cultivars 'Autumn Sunset' and Gruss-an-Teplitz performed better in climatic conditions of Faisalabad. (author)

  9. Life cycle cost analysis of HPVT air collector under different Indian climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raman, Vivek; Tiwari, G.N.

    2008-01-01

    In this communication, a study is carried out to evaluate an annual thermal and exergy efficiency of a hybrid photovoltaic thermal (HPVT) air collector for different Indian climate conditions, of Srinagar, Mumbai, Jodhpur, New Delhi and Banglore. The study has been based on electrical, thermal and exergy output of the HPVT air collector. Further, the life cycle analysis in terms of cost/kWh has been carried out. The main focus of the study is to see the effect of interest rate, life of the HPVT air collector, subsidy, etc. on the cost/kWh HPVT air collector. A comparison is made keeping in view the energy matrices. The study reveals that (i) annual thermal and electrical efficiency decreases with increase in solar radiation and (ii) the cost/kWh is higher in case of exergy when compared with cost/kWh on the basis of thermal energy for all climate conditions. The cost/kWh for climate conditions of Jodhpur is most economical

  10. Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin

    2017-03-01

    The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

  11. Performance of three saudi arabian date palm varieties under the agro-climatic conditions of khairpur

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soad, A.A.A.

    2013-01-01

    Date palms of 10 year old Ajwa, Safawi and Ruthana varieties from Al-Madina, Saudi Arabia were evaluated under the agro-climatic conditions of Khairpur, Sindh, Pakistan throughout the growing seasons from 2009 to 2011. The results obtained indicated better fruit quality similar to those fruits obtained from the original place of origin. The palms of the three varieties were thriving successfully. The edible stage of vars. Ajwa and Safawi is tamer and rutab for var. Ruthana. The fruit was harvested early from 13 to 20th of July before the onset of monsoons. The fruit size of vars. Ajwa, Safawi and Ruthana at their edible stages were 3.16, 4.25 and 3.52 cm long, and 2.31, 2.05 and 2.38 cm in diameter, respectively. The average fruit and seed weight of vars. Ajwa, Safawi and Ruthana were 11.42, 10.49 and 12.42 g, and 1.23, 0.88 and 1.1 g, respectively. The fruit flesh percentage in vars. Ajwa, Safawi and Ruthana reached 89.14%, 90.84% and 90.92%, respectively. It was found that the climatic conditions of Khairpur are suitable for the cultivation of these three exotic varieties. The vegetative, flowering and fruit characteristics of the three varieties were described, and the impact of climatic conditions on fruit quality was discussed in this study. (author)

  12. Rare Earth Element Behavior During Incongruent Weathering and Varying Discharge Conditions in Silicate Dominated River Systems: The Australian Victorian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagedorn, K. B.; Cartwright, I.

    2008-12-01

    The distribution of rare earth elements (REE) and trace elements was measured by ICP-MS on fresh, slightly weathered and weathered granite and surface water samples from a network of 11 pristine rivers draining the Australian Victorian Alps during (i) high and (ii) low discharge conditions. River water REE concentrations are largely derived from atmospheric precipitation (rain, snow), as indicated by similar Chondrite normalized REE patterns (higher LREE over HREE; negative Ce anomalies, positive Eu anomalies) and similar total REE concentrations during both dry and wet seasons. Calculations based on the covariance between REE and Cl concentrations and oxygen and hydrogen isotopes indicate precipitation input coupled with subsequent evaporation may account for 30% o 100% of dissolved REE in stream waters. The dissolved contribution to the granitic substratum to stream water comes mainly from the transformation of plagioclase to smectite, kaolinite and gibbsite and minor apatite dissolution. However, since most REE of the regional granite are present in accessory minerals (titanite, zircon, etc.) they do not significantly contribute to the river REE pool. REE concentrations drop sharply downstream as a result of dilution and chemical attenuation. A trend of downstream enrichment of the heavier REE is due to selective partitioning of the lighter REE (as both free REE or REECO3 complexes) to hydrous oxides of suspended Al which, in turn, is controlled by a downstream increase of pH to values > 6.1 (for free REE) and > 7.3 (for REECO3 complexes). Although most circumneutral waters were supersaturated with REE phosphate compounds, precipitation of LnPO4 is not believed to have been a dominant process because the predicted phosphate fractionation pattern is inconsistent with the observed trends. Negative saturation indices of hydrous ferric oxides also militate against surface complexation onto goethite. Instead, REE attenuation most likely resulted from adsorption onto

  13. Collaborative Research: Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melillo, Jerry [Marine Biological Lab., Woods Hole, MA (United States)

    2017-12-12

    Our overall goal in this research was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal was motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we tested the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming. In collaboration with our Purdue and MIT colleagues, we have attempted to quantify global climate warming effects on land-atmosphere interactions, land-river network interactions, permafrost degradation, vegetation shifts, and land use influence water, carbon, and nitrogen fluxes to and from terrestrial ecosystems in the pan-arctic along with their

  14. Processes influencing migration of bioavailable organic compounds from polymers - investigated during biotic and abiotic testing under static and non-static conditions with varying S/V-ratios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corfitzen, Charlotte B.; Arvin, Erik; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen

    . The bioavailable migration from the polymer surface was influence by diffusion over the solid-liquid boundary layer under sterile conditions, which resulted in an inversely proportionally relationship between bioavailable migration expressed per unit surface area of material and the surface to volume ratio (S/V-ratio...... the effect of the boundary layer, since bioavailable migration was continuously consumed by the bacteria. Thus the driving force for the diffusion process was maintained at a maximum, thereby enhancing the bioavailable migration from the material surfaces. Thus neither non-static conditions nor varying S/V-ratios...

  15. Creep rupture properties under varying load/temperature conditions on a nickel-base heat-resistant alloy strengthened by boron addition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuji, Hirokazu; Tanabe, Tatsuhiko; Nakajima, Hajime

    1994-01-01

    A series of constant load and temperature creep rupture tests and varying load and temperature creep rupture tests was carried out on Hastelloy XR whose boron content level is 60 mass ppm at 900 and 1000 C in order to examine the behavior of the alloy under varying load and temperature conditions. The life fraction rule completely fails in the prediction of the creep rupture life under varying load and temperature conditions though the rule shows good applicability for Hastelloy XR whose boron content level is below 10 mass ppm. The modified life fraction rule has been proposed based on the dependence of the creep rupture strength on the boron content level of the alloy. The modified rule successfully predicts the creep rupture life under the test conditions from 1000 to 900 C. The trend observed in the tests from 900 to 1000 C can be qualitatively explained by the mechanism that the oxide film which is formed during the prior exposure to 900 C plays the role of the protective barrier against the boron dissipation into the environment. (orig.)

  16. Creep rupture properties under varying load/temperature conditions on a nickel-base heat-resistant alloy strengthened by boron addition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuji, Hirokazu; Nakajima, Hajime; Tanabe, Tatsuhiko.

    1993-09-01

    A series of constant load and temperature creep rupture tests and varying load and temperature creep rupture tests was carried out on Hastelloy XR whose boron content level is 60 mass ppm at 900 and 1000degC in order to examine the behavior of the alloy under varying load and temperature conditions. The life fraction rule completely fails in the prediction of the creep rupture life under varying load and temperature conditions though the rule shows good applicability for Hastelloy XR whose boron content level is below 10 mass ppm. The modified life fraction rule has been proposed based on the dependence of the creep rupture strength on the born content level of the alloy. The modified rule successfully predicts the creep rupture life under the test conditions from 1000degC to 900degC. The trend observed in the tests from 900degC to 1000degC can be qualitatively explained by the mechanism that the oxide film which is formed during the prior exposure to 900degC plays the role of the protective barrier against the boron dissipation into the environment. (author)

  17. Climate change and future overwintering conditions of horticultural woody-plants in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laapas, M.; Jylhae, K.; Tuomenvirta, H. (Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland))

    2012-07-01

    Climate in Finland offers challenging conditions for commercial horticulture. The short and insufficient growing season together with risky overwintering strongly limits species suitable for cultivation. The aim of this study was to examine the climatic conditions around Finland in the aspect of horticulture, focusing on processes relevant to woody plants and species with photoperiod controlled growth cessation, and how these conditions may be expected to change due to the projected global warming. For this, a set of temperature-related indices and threshold events were used. These indices represent the severity of coldness during winter, wintertime thaws, and frost events close to the onset and ending of the growing season. The combined results of 19 GCMs (General Circulation Model) from the CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3) multi-model data set under SRES-B1 and SRES-A2 (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios were used to produce the future projections. By mid-century our results suggest wintertime conditions with reduced cold stress, caused by less frequent and shorter periods of severe frost together with a rise in the extreme minimum temperature. Conversely, an increase in the number and intensity of wintertime thaw events leads to a higher risk in overwintering. Also the risk of spring frost damage is projected to decrease slightly, and the conditions for cold hardening process to improve, as the first autumnal frosts occur later. (orig.)

  18. Under which climate and soil conditions the plant productivity-precipitation relationship is linear or nonlinear?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Jian-Sheng; Pei, Jiu-Ying; Fang, Chao

    2018-03-01

    Understanding under which climate and soil conditions the plant productivity-precipitation relationship is linear or nonlinear is useful for accurately predicting the response of ecosystem function to global environmental change. Using long-term (2000-2016) net primary productivity (NPP)-precipitation datasets derived from satellite observations, we identify >5600pixels in the North Hemisphere landmass that fit either linear or nonlinear temporal NPP-precipitation relationships. Differences in climate (precipitation, radiation, ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration, temperature) and soil factors (nitrogen, phosphorous, organic carbon, field capacity) between the linear and nonlinear types are evaluated. Our analysis shows that both linear and nonlinear types exhibit similar interannual precipitation variabilities and occurrences of extreme precipitation. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance suggests that linear and nonlinear types differ significantly regarding to radiation, ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration, and soil factors. The nonlinear type possesses lower radiation and/or less soil nutrients than the linear type, thereby suggesting that nonlinear type features higher degree of limitation from resources other than precipitation. This study suggests several factors limiting the responses of plant productivity to changes in precipitation, thus causing nonlinear NPP-precipitation pattern. Precipitation manipulation and modeling experiments should combine with changes in other climate and soil factors to better predict the response of plant productivity under future climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Coupling climate conditions, sediment sources and sediment transport in an alpine basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainato, Riccardo; Picco, Lorenzo; Cavalli, Marco; Mao, Luca; Neverman, Andrew J.; Tarolli, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    In a fluvial system, mountain basins control sediment export to the lowland rivers. Hence, the analysis of the erosion processes and sediment delivery patterns that act in mountain basins is important. Several studies have investigated the alterations triggered by recent climatic change on the hydrological regime, whilst only a few works have explored the consequences on the sediment dynamics. Here we combined and analyzed the quasi-unique dataset of climatic conditions, landscape response, and sediment export produced, since 1986 in the Rio Cordon basin (5 km2, Eastern Italian Alps) to examine the sediment delivery processes occurring in the last three decades. The temperature, precipitation, and fluvial sediment fluxes in the basin were analyzed using continuous measurement executed by a permanent monitoring station, while the landscape evolution was investigated by three sediment source inventories established in 1994, 2006, and 2016. Thus, the analysis focused on the trends exhibited during the periods 1986-1993, 1994-2006, and 2007-2015. In terms of climatic conditions, three distinct climate forcing stages can be observed in the periods analyzed: a relatively stable phase (1986-1993), a period characterized by temperature and rainfall fluctuations (1994-2006), and a more recent warmer and wetter phase (2007-2015). In the 1986-1993 period, the fluvial sediment fluxes reflected the stable trend exhibited by the climatic conditions. In the subsequent 1994-2006 period, the average temperature and precipitation were in line with that previously observed, although with higher interannual variability. Notwithstanding the climate forcing and the occurrence of high magnitude/low frequency floods that strongly influenced the source areas, between 1994 and 2006 the Rio Cordon basin showed relatively limited erosion activity. Hence, the climatic conditions and the landscape response can only partially explain the strong increase of sediment export recorded in the 1994

  20. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Variables: Assessing Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Kaleris, Vassilios

    2014-05-01

    Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, and the modeling parameterizations used, precipitation is one of the least well reproduced hydrologic variables by both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This is especially the case at a regional level (where hydrologic risks are assessed) and at small temporal scales (e.g. daily) used to run hydrologic models. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings and assess the effect of climate change on rainfall statistics at hydrologically relevant scales, Langousis and Kaleris (2013) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables. The developed downscaling scheme was tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece, and was proved capable of reproducing several statistical properties of actual rainfall records, at both annual and seasonal levels. This was done solely by conditioning rainfall simulation on a vector of atmospheric predictors, properly selected to reflect the relative influence of upper-air variables on ground-level rainfall statistics. In this study, we apply the developed framework for conditional rainfall simulation using atmospheric data from different GCM/RCM combinations. This is done using atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com), and daily rainfall measurements for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy; i.e. the Flumendosa catchment. Since GCM/RCM products are suited to reproduce the local climatology in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of relative frequencies), rather than ensuring a one-to-one temporal correspondence between observed and simulated fields (i.e. as is the case for ERA-interim reanalysis data), we proceed in three steps: a) we use statistical tools to establish a linkage between ERA-Interim upper-air atmospheric forecasts and

  1. Belowground Plant–Herbivore Interactions Vary among Climate-Driven Range-Expanding Plant Species with Different Degrees of Novel Chemistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rutger A. Wilschut

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An increasing number of studies report plant range expansions to higher latitudes and altitudes in response to global warming. However, consequences for interactions with other species in the novel ranges are poorly understood. Here, we examine how range-expanding plant species interact with root-feeding nematodes from the new range. Root-feeding nematodes are ubiquitous belowground herbivores that may impact the structure and composition of natural vegetation. Because of their ecological novelty, we hypothesized that range-expanding plant species will be less suitable hosts for root-feeding nematodes than native congeneric plant species. In greenhouse and lab trials we compared nematode preference and performance of two root-feeding nematode species between range-expanding plant species and their congeneric natives. In order to understand differences in nematode preferences, we compared root volatile profiles of all range-expanders and congeneric natives. Nematode preferences and performances differed substantially among the pairs of range-expanders and natives. The range-expander that had the most unique volatile profile compared to its related native was unattractive and a poor host for nematodes. Other range-expanding plant species that differed less in root chemistry from native congeners, also differed less in nematode attraction and performance. We conclude that the three climate-driven range-expanding plant species studied varied considerably in their chemical novelty compared to their congeneric natives, and therefore affected native root-feeding nematodes in species-specific ways. Our data suggest that through variation in chemical novelty, range-expanding plant species may vary in their impacts on belowground herbivores in the new range.

  2. Simulating runoff under changing climatic conditions: Revisiting an apparent deficiency of conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Keirnan J. A.; Peel, Murray C.; Western, Andrew W.; Zhang, Lu; Peterson, Tim J.

    2016-03-01

    Hydrologic models have potential to be useful tools in planning for future climate variability. However, recent literature suggests that the current generation of conceptual rainfall runoff models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of runoff to a given change in rainfall, leading to poor performance when evaluated over multiyear droughts. This research revisited this conclusion, investigating whether the observed poor performance could be due to insufficient model calibration and evaluation techniques. We applied an approach based on Pareto optimality to explore trade-offs between model performance in different climatic conditions. Five conceptual rainfall runoff model structures were tested in 86 catchments in Australia, for a total of 430 Pareto analyses. The Pareto results were then compared with results from a commonly used model calibration and evaluation method, the Differential Split Sample Test. We found that the latter often missed potentially promising parameter sets within a given model structure, giving a false negative impression of the capabilities of the model. This suggests that models may be more capable under changing climatic conditions than previously thought. Of the 282[347] cases of apparent model failure under the split sample test using the lower [higher] of two model performance criteria trialed, 155[120] were false negatives. We discuss potential causes of remaining model failures, including the role of data errors. Although the Pareto approach proved useful, our aim was not to suggest an alternative calibration strategy, but to critically assess existing methods of model calibration and evaluation. We recommend caution when interpreting split sample results.

  3. Rainfall and net infiltration probabilities for future climate conditions at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, A.; Childs, S.W.

    1993-01-01

    Performance assessment of repository integrity is a task rendered difficult because it requires predicting the future. This challenge has occupied many scientists who realize that the best assessments are required to maximize the probability of successful repository sitting and design. As part of a performance assessment effort directed by the EPRI, the authors have used probabilistic methods to assess the magnitude and timing of net infiltration at Yucca Mountain. A mathematical model for net infiltration previously published incorporated a probabilistic treatment of climate, surface hydrologic processes and a mathematical model of the infiltration process. In this paper, we present the details of the climatological analysis. The precipitation model is event-based, simulating characteristics of modern rainfall near Yucca Mountain, then extending the model to most likely values for different degrees of pluvial climates. Next the precipitation event model is fed into a process-based infiltration model that considers spatial variability in parameters relevant to net infiltration of Yucca Mountain. The model predicts that average annual net infiltration at Yucca Mountain will range from a mean of about 1 mm under present climatic conditions to a mean of at least 2.4 mm under full glacial (pluvial) conditions. Considerable variations about these means are expected to occur from year-to-year

  4. Native and exotic plant cover vary inversely along a climate gradient 11 years following stand-replacing wildfire in a dry coniferous forest, Oregon, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodson, Erich K; Root, Heather T

    2015-02-01

    Community re-assembly following future disturbances will often occur under warmer and more moisture-limited conditions than when current communities assembled. Because the establishment stage is regularly the most sensitive to climate and competition, the trajectory of recovery from disturbance in a changing environment is uncertain, but has important consequences for future ecosystem functioning. To better understand how ongoing warming and rising moisture limitation may affect recovery, we studied native and exotic plant composition 11 years following complete stand-replacing wildfire in a dry coniferous forest spanning a large gradient in climatic moisture deficit (CMD) from warm and dry low elevation sites to relatively cool and moist higher elevations sites. We then projected future precipitation, temperature and CMD at our study locations for four scenarios selected to encompass a broad range of possible future conditions for the region. Native perennials dominated relatively cool and moist sites 11 years after wildfire, but were very sparse at the warmest and driest (high CMD) sites, particularly when combined with high topographic sun exposure. In contrast, exotic species (primarily annual grasses) were dominant or co-dominant at the warmest and driest sites, especially with high topographic sun exposure. All future scenarios projected increasing temperature and CMD in coming decades (e.g., from 4.5% to 29.5% higher CMD by the 2080's compared to the 1971-2000 average), even in scenarios where growing season (May-September) precipitation increased. These results suggest increasing temperatures and moisture limitation could facilitate longer term (over a decade) transitions toward exotic-dominated communities after severe wildfire when a suitable exotic seed source is present. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Impact of climate change on commercial sector air conditioning energy consumption in subtropical Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lam, Tony N.T.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Wong, S.L.; Lam, Joseph C.

    2010-01-01

    Past and future trend of electricity use for air conditioning in the entire commercial sector in subtropical climates using 1979-2008 measured meteorological data as well as predictions for 2009-2100 from a general circulation model (MIROC3.2-H) was investigated. Air conditioning consumption showed an increasing trend over the past 30 years from 1979 to 2008. Principal component analysis (PCA) of measured and predicted monthly mean dry-bulb temperature, wet-bulb temperature and global solar radiation was conducted to determine a new climatic index Z for 1979-2008 and future 92 years (2009-2100) based on two emissions scenarios B1 and A1B (low and medium forcing). Through regression analysis, electricity use in air conditioning for the 92-year period was estimated. For low forcing, average consumption in 2009-2038, 2039-2068 and 2069-2100 would be, respectively, 5.7%, 12.8% and 18.4% more than the 1979-2008 average, with a mean 12.5% increase for the entire 92-year period. Medium forcing showed a similar increasing trend, but 1-4% more. Standard deviations of the monthly air conditioning consumption were found to be smaller suggesting possible reduction in seasonal variations in future years.

  6. Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

    2012-04-01

    The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

  7. The Effect of Body Weight on Heat Strain Indices in Hot and Dry Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Habibi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Being overweight is a characteristic that may influence a person’s heat exchange. Objectives The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of body weight on heat strain indices in hot and dry climatic conditions. Materials and Methods This study was completed with a sample of 30 participants with normal weights, as well as 25 participants who were overweight. The participants were physically inactive for a period of 120 minutes in a climatic chamber with hot and dry conditions (22 - 32°C and with 40% relative humidity (RH.The physiological strain index (PSI and heat strain score index (HSSI questionnaires were used. Simultaneous measurements were completed during heat exposure for periods of five minutes. The resting periods acted as the initial measurements for 15 minutes. Results In both groups, oral temperature, heart rate, and thermal perceptual responses increased during heat exposure. The means and standard deviations of heart rate and oral temperature were gathered when participants were in hot and dry climatic conditions and were not physically active. The heart rates and oral temperatures were 79.21 ± 5.93 bpm and 36.70 ± 0.45°C, respectively, for those with normal weights. For overweight individuals, the measurements for heart rate and oral temperature reached 82.21 ± 8.9 bpm and 37.84 ± 0.37°C, respectively. Conclusions The results showed that, compared to participants with normal weights, physiological and thermal perceptual responses were higher in overweight participants. Therefore, overweight individuals should avoid hot/dry weather conditions to decrease the amount of heat strain.

  8. Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kageyama

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Fresh water hosing simulations, in which a fresh water flux is imposed in the North Atlantic to force fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, have been routinely performed, first to study the climatic signature of different states of this circulation, then, under present or future conditions, to investigate the potential impact of a partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The most compelling examples of climatic changes potentially related to AMOC abrupt variations, however, are found in high resolution palaeo-records from around the globe for the last glacial period. To study those more specifically, more and more fresh water hosing experiments have been performed under glacial conditions in the recent years. Here we compare an ensemble constituted by 11 such simulations run with 6 different climate models. All simulations follow a slightly different design, but are sufficiently close in their design to be compared. They all study the impact of a fresh water hosing imposed in the extra-tropical North Atlantic. Common features in the model responses to hosing are the cooling over the North Atlantic, extending along the sub-tropical gyre in the tropical North Atlantic, the southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ and the weakening of the African and Indian monsoons. On the other hand, the expression of the bipolar see-saw, i.e., warming in the Southern Hemisphere, differs from model to model, with some restricting it to the South Atlantic and specific regions of the southern ocean while others simulate a widespread southern ocean warming. The relationships between the features common to most models, i.e., climate changes over the north and tropical Atlantic, African and Asian monsoon regions, are further quantified. These suggest a tight correlation between the temperature and precipitation changes over the extra-tropical North Atlantic, but different pathways for the teleconnections between the AMOC/North Atlantic region

  9. Effects of climatic conditions and soil properties on Cabernet Sauvignon berry growth and anthocyanin profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Guo; He, Yan-Nan; Yue, Tai-Xin; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Zhen-Wen

    2014-09-02

    Climatic conditions and soil type have significant influence on grape ripening and wine quality. The reported study was conducted in two "Cabernet Sauvignon (Vitis vinifera L.V)" vineyards located in Xinjiang, a semiarid wine-producing region of China during two vintages (2011 and 2012). The results indicate that soil and climate affected berry growth and anthocyanin profiles. These two localities were within a distance of 5 km from each other and had soils of different physical and chemical composition. For each vineyard, the differences of anthocyanin concentrations, and parameters concerning berry growth and composition between the two years could be explained by different climatic conditions. Soil effect was studied by investigation of differences in berry composition and anthocyanin profiles between the two vineyards in the same year, which could be explained mainly by the different soil properties, vine water and nitrogen status. Specifically, the soils with less water and organic matter produced looser clusters, heavier berry skins and higher TSS, which contributed to the excellent performance of grapes. Compared with 2011, the increases in anthocyanin concentrations for each vineyard in 2012 could be attributed to smaller number of extreme temperature (>35 °C) days and rainfall, lower vine water status and N level. The explanation for higher anthocyanin concentrations in grape skins from the soils with less water and organic matter could be the vine status differences, lighter berry weight and heavier skin weight at harvest. In particular, grapes from the soils with less water and organic matter had higher levels of 3'5'-substituded, O-methylated and acylated anthocyanins, which represented a positive characteristic conferring more stable pigmentation to the corresponding wine in the future. The present work clarifies the effects of climate and soil on berry growth and anthocyanin profiles, thus providing guidance for production of high-quality wine grapes

  10. Effects of Climatic Conditions and Soil Properties on Cabernet Sauvignon Berry Growth and Anthocyanin Profiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Cheng

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Climatic conditions and soil type have significant influence on grape ripening and wine quality. The reported study was conducted in two “Cabernet Sauvignon (Vitis vinifera L.V” vineyards located in Xinjiang, a semiarid wine-producing region of China during two vintages (2011 and 2012. The results indicate that soil and climate affected berry growth and anthocyanin profiles. These two localities were within a distance of 5 km from each other and had soils of different physical and chemical composition. For each vineyard, the differences of anthocyanin concentrations, and parameters concerning berry growth and composition between the two years could be explained by different climatic conditions. Soil effect was studied by investigation of differences in berry composition and anthocyanin profiles between the two vineyards in the same year, which could be explained mainly by the different soil properties, vine water and nitrogen status. Specifically, the soils with less water and organic matter produced looser clusters, heavier berry skins and higher TSS, which contributed to the excellent performance of grapes. Compared with 2011, the increases in anthocyanin concentrations for each vineyard in 2012 could be attributed to smaller number of extreme temperature (>35 °C days and rainfall, lower vine water status and N level. The explanation for higher anthocyanin concentrations in grape skins from the soils with less water and organic matter could be the vine status differences, lighter berry weight and heavier skin weight at harvest. In particular, grapes from the soils with less water and organic matter had higher levels of 3′5′-substituded, O-methylated and acylated anthocyanins, which represented a positive characteristic conferring more stable pigmentation to the corresponding wine in the future. The present work clarifies the effects of climate and soil on berry growth and anthocyanin profiles, thus providing guidance for production of

  11. Assessment of Humidity Conditions and Trends Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SEPI Over Different Climatic Regions of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ghabaei S

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Drought is a recurrent feature of climate that caused by deficiency of precipitation over time. Due to the rise in water demand and alarming climate change, recent year’s observer much focus on drought and drought conditions. A multiple types of deficits and relevant temporal scales can be achieved through the construction of a joint indicator that draws on information from multiple sources and will therefore enable better assessment of drought characteristics including return period, persistent and severity. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI combines information from precipitation and temperature in the form of water surplus or deficit according to Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. Rainfall over some regions of Iran during some resent year was below average while mean and maximum temperatures were very high during this period, as was evaporation. This would suggest that drought conditions were worse than in previous recent periods with similarly low rainfall. The main objective of this study is to assess the influences of humidity on the SPEI index and investigate its relation with SPI and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI over six different climatic regions in Iran. Materials and Methods: Iran has different climatic conditions which vary from desert in central part to costal wet near the Caspian Sea. In this study the selection of stations was done based on Alijani et al (2008 climatic classification. We chose 11 synoptic stations from six different climatic classes including costal wet (Rasht and Babolsar, semi mountains (Mashhad and Tabriz, mountains (Shiraz and Khoram Abad, semi-arid (Tehran and Semnan, arid (Kerman and Yazd and costal desert (Bandar Abas. The Meteorological datasets for the aforementioned stations were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO for the period 1960-2010. The compiled data included average monthly values of precipitation, minimum and maximum air

  12. Behavior of crushed rock aggregates used in road construction exposed to cold climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Elena; Pérez Fortes, Ana Patricia; Anastasio, Sara; Willy Danielsen, Svein

    2016-04-01

    Presently, about 90% of the aggregate production in Europe comes from naturally occurring resources: quarries and pits. Due to the increased demand for sand and gravel for construction purposes, not only in building but also in road construction, the last decade has seen a significant trend towards the use of more crushed rock aggregates. This resource has been more and more preferred to sand and gravel thanks to the significant technological development of its process and use phase. The performance of the aggregates is generally evaluated depending on three main factors: the geological origin (mineral composition, texture, structure, degree of weathering), the aggregate processing (crushing, sieving, washing, storing) and the user technology for a specific area of use (e.g. road construction, asphalt binders). Nevertheless climatic conditions should carefully be taken into account in application such as road construction. Large temperature gradients and high levels of humidity are known to significantly affect the performance of the material. Although the problem is, at least in the asphalt field, considered mostly from the binder point of view, this article aims to investigate the effect of aggregate properties on road performance in cold climatic conditions. Two different climatic areas will be taken into account: Norway and Spain. While both these countries are listed among the main European producers of aggregates, they represent significantly different climatic regions. While Norwegian weather is characterized by humid cold winters and relatively mild summers, Spain has temperate climate with cold regions in mountainous and internal areas. Both countries have been significantly affected by climate change with increasing temperature variations and instability. At the same time, similar winter maintenance measures, including the use of a considerable amount of solid and liquid chemicals to avoid ice formation (e.g. NaCl) and/or to provide better friction, are

  13. A Database for Climatic Conditions around Europe for Promoting GSHP Solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele De Carli

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Weather plays an important role for energy uses in buildings. For this reason, it is required to define the proper boundary conditions in terms of the different parameters affecting energy and comfort in buildings. They are also the basis for determining the ground temperature in different locations, as well as for determining the potential for using geothermal energy. This paper presents a database for climates in Europe that has been used in a freeware tool developed as part of the H2020 research project named “Cheap-GSHPs”. The standard Köppen-Geiger climate classification has been matched with the weather data provided by the ENERGYPLUS and METEONORM software database. The Test Reference Years of more than 300 locations have been considered. These locations have been labelled according to the degree-days for heating and cooling, as well as by the Köppen-Geiger scale. A comprehensive data set of weather conditions in Europe has been created and used as input for a GSHP sizing software, helping the user in selecting the weather conditions closest to the location of interest. The proposed method is based on lapse rates and has been tested at two locations in Switzerland and Ireland. It has been demonstrated as quite valid for the project purposes, considering the spatial distribution and density of available data and the lower computing load, in particular for locations where altitude is the main factor controlling on the temperature variations.

  14. Variation of moisture content of some varnished woods in indoor climatic conditions

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    Kemal Üçüncü

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, moisture change of varnished wood of black poplar (Populus nigra and yellow pine (Pinus silvestris L. used in indoor climate conditions with central heating in Trabzon (Turkey were investigated. 300 mm length wood specimens, with cross section of 12.5 mm in tangential and in radial and with the square sections of 25mm and 50 mm, were obtained from two species grown in Kanuni Campus of the Karadeniz Technical University. In this research, un-varnished wood samples were also used for reference. The wood moisture content was determined by the weighing method, the wood equilibrium moisture content by the Hailwood-Horrobin equation, and the relative humidity in the indoor climatic conditions by humid air thermodynamic principles. As a result; it was observed that the moisture content of varnished wood samples has a strong relationship with equilibrium moisture content, temperature and relative humidity. It was found that the moisture content of varnished woods was higher than the moisture content of un-varnished woods in the same climatic conditions. It was observed that the difference between the monthly average moisture content was lower in varnished woods in proportion to un-varnished woods. According to these results, it can be indicated that it would be more appropriate to select higher moisture content in the drying of wood than the equilibrium moisture content. Such an application would also reduce drying costs. Further, it can be recommended to use varnished wood in various applications because the low change range of average moisture content can affect the swelling or shrinking of wood.

  15. New insights into thermal growing conditions of Portuguese grapevine varieties under changing climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, João A.; Costa, Ricardo; Fraga, Helder

    2018-03-01

    New decision support tools for Portuguese viticulture are urging under a climate change context. In the present study, heat and chilling accumulation conditions of a collection of 44 grapevine cultivars currently grown in Portugal are assessed at very high spatial resolution ( 1 km) and for 1981-2015. Two bioclimatic indices that incorporate non-linear plant-temperature relationships are selected for this purpose: growing degree hours—GDH (February-October) and chilling portions—CP (October-February). The current thermal growing conditions of each variety are examined and three clusters of grapevine cultivars are identified based on their GDH medians, thus assembling varieties with close heat accumulation requirements and providing more physiologically consistent information when compared to previous studies, as non-linear plant-temperature relationships are herein taken into account. These new clusters are also a complement to previous bioclimatic zoning. Ensemble mean projections under two anthropogenic-driven scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, 2041-2070), from four EURO-CORDEX simulations, reveal a widespread increase of GDH and decrease of CP, but with spatial heterogeneities. The spatial variability of these indices throughout Portugal is projected to decrease (strongest increases of GDH in the coolest regions of the northeast) and to increase (strongest decreases of CP in the warmest regions of the south and west), respectively. The typical heat accumulation conditions of each cluster are projected to gradually shift north-eastwards and to higher-elevation areas, whereas insufficient chilling may represent a new challenge in warmer future climates. An unprecedented level of detail for a large collection of grapevine varieties in Portugal is provided, thus promoting a better planning of climate change adaptation measures.

  16. Evaluating climate field reconstruction techniques using improved emulations of real-world conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Guillot, D.; Smerdon, J. E.; Rajaratnam, B.

    2014-01-01

    Pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs) have become an important framework for evaluating paleoclimate reconstruction methods. Most existing PPE studies assume constant proxy availability through time and uniform proxy quality across the pseudoproxy network. Real multiproxy networks are, however, marked by pronounced disparities in proxy quality, and a steep decline in proxy availability back in time, either of which may have large effects on reconstruction skill. A suite of PPEs constructed from a millennium-length general circulation model (GCM) simulation is thus designed to mimic these various real-world characteristics. The new pseudoproxy network is used to evaluate four climate field reconstruction (CFR) techniques: truncated total least squares embedded within the regularized EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm (RegEM-TTLS), the Mann et al. (2009) implementation of RegEM-TTLS (M09), canonical correlation analysis (CCA), and Gaussian graphical models embedded within RegEM (GraphEM). Each method's risk properties are also assessed via a 100-member noise ensemble. Contrary to expectation, it is found that reconstruction skill does not vary monotonically with proxy availability, but also is a function of the type and amplitude of climate variability (forced events vs. internal variability). The use of realistic spatiotemporal pseudoproxy characteristics also exposes large inter-method differences. Despite the comparable fidelity in reconstructing the global mean temperature, spatial skill varies considerably between CFR techniques. Both GraphEM and CCA efficiently exploit teleconnections, and produce consistent reconstructions across the ensemble. RegEM-TTLS and M09 appear advantageous for reconstructions on highly noisy data, but are subject to larger stochastic variations across different realizations of pseudoproxy noise. Results collectively highlight the importance of designing realistic pseudoproxy networks and implementing multiple noise realizations of PPEs

  17. The importance of moisture buffering for indoor climate and energy conditions of buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rode, Carsten; Grau, Karl

    2007-01-01

    A new Nordic test method specifies a test protocol for determination of the so-called Moisture Buffer Value (MBV) of building materials. But how important is moisture buffering to determine the indoor humidity condition of buildings? The paper will present the new MBV-definition. Although...... buffering to save energy by reducing the requirement for ventilation in periods, and still maintain the same quality of the indoor climate? The paper will outline some possibilities for analytical/numerical calculations, and will answer some of the posed questions on the probable benefit of taking moisture...

  18. Solar water heaters: possibilities of using in the climatic conditions of the Russia medium area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popel', O.S.; Frid, S.E.

    2001-01-01

    On the basis of mathematical simulation of the simplest solar water heating facility using up-to-date software and data of typical meteorological year it was shown that under the real climatic conditions peculiar to Russia central region it is appropriate to use seasonal solar water heaters operating from March up to September. It is shown that to promote solar water heaters in the Russian market one should elaborate engineering approaches and should introduce new materials ensuring reduction of cost of solar water heaters with the availability of high quality and durability [ru

  19. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Dynamical Downscaling over Siberia: Is there an added value in representing recent climate conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klehmet, K.; Rockel, B.

    2012-04-01

    The analysis of long-term changes and variability of climate variables for the large areal extent of Siberia - covering arctic, subarctic and temperate northern latitudes - is hampered by the sparseness of in-situ observations. To counteract this deficiency we aimed to provide a reconstruction of regional climate for the period 1948-2010 getting homogenous, consistent fields of various terrestrial and atmospheric parameters for Siberia. In order to obtain in addition a higher temporal and spatial resolution than global datasets can provide, we performed the reconstruction using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (climate mode of the limited area model COSMO developed by the German weather service). However, the question arises whether the dynamically downscaled data of reanalysis can improve the representation of recent climate conditions. As global forcing for the initialization and the regional boundaries we use NCEP-1 Reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction since it has the longest temporal data coverage among the reanalysis products. Additionally, spectral nudging is applied to prevent the regional model from deviating from the prescribed large-scale circulation within the whole simulation domain. The area of interest covers a region in Siberia, spanning from the Laptev Sea and Kara Sea to Northern Mongolia and from the West Siberian Lowland to the border of Sea of Okhotsk. The current horizontal resolution is of about 50 km which is planned to be increased to 25 km. To answer the question, we investigate spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation of the model output in comparison to global reanalysis data (NCEP-1, ERA40, ERA-Interim). As reference Russian station data from the "Global Summary of the Day" data set, provided by NCDC, is used. Temperature is analyzed with respect to its climatologically spatial patterns across the model domain and its variability of extremes based on climate indices derived

  1. Carbon allocation to major metabolites in illuminated leaves is not just proportional to photosynthesis when gaseous conditions (CO2 and O2 ) vary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadie, Cyril; Bathellier, Camille; Tcherkez, Guillaume

    2018-04-01

    In gas-exchange experiments, manipulating CO 2 and O 2 is commonly used to change the balance between carboxylation and oxygenation. Downstream metabolism (utilization of photosynthetic and photorespiratory products) may also be affected by gaseous conditions but this is not well documented. Here, we took advantage of sunflower as a model species, which accumulates chlorogenate in addition to sugars and amino acids (glutamate, alanine, glycine and serine). We performed isotopic labelling with 13 CO 2 under different CO 2 /O 2 conditions, and determined 13 C contents to compute 13 C-allocation patterns and build-up rates. The 13 C content in major metabolites was not found to be a constant proportion of net fixed carbon but, rather, changed dramatically with CO 2 and O 2 . Alanine typically accumulated at low O 2 (hypoxic response) while photorespiratory intermediates accumulated under ambient conditions and at high photorespiration, glycerate accumulation exceeding serine and glycine build-up. Chlorogenate synthesis was relatively more important under normal conditions and at high CO 2 and its synthesis was driven by phosphoenolpyruvate de novo synthesis. These findings demonstrate that carbon allocation to metabolites other than photosynthetic end products is affected by gaseous conditions and therefore the photosynthetic yield of net nitrogen assimilation varies, being minimal at high CO 2 and maximal at high O 2 . © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

  2. Performance evaluation of a solar adsorption chiller under different climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alahmer, Ali; Wang, Xiaolin; Al-Rbaihat, Raed; Amanul Alam, K.C.; Saha, B.B.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A solar adsorption cooling system was studied at different climatic conditions. • Effect of hot water temperature and flow rate on system performance was evaluated. • Solar collector area and tilting angle largely affected the system performance. • Economics of the solar adsorption cooling was analysed at real weather conditions. • Adsorption cooling could be potentially applied in cities with good solar radiation. - Abstract: Performance of an adsorption cooling system driven by solar thermal energy was studied under different climatic conditions. The effects of solar collector area, collector slope, hot water temperature and flow rate on the system performance were investigated using the real-time weather data of two cities: Perth, Australia (a representative city in the southern hemisphere) and Amman, Jordan (a representative city in the northern hemisphere). The simulation results showed that the two cities had similar solar radiation during the summer period and that the solar adsorption chiller could reliably provide cooling at a reasonably high system COP. For residential cooling with a total CPC (Compound Parabolic Collector) solar collector area of 36.22 m"2, the average system COP was 0.491 for Perth weather conditions and 0.467 for Amman weather conditions, respectively while the cooling capacity was 10.3 kW for Perth and 8.46 kW for Amman, respectively at peak times. Optimum performance occurred when the system run with the CPC collector slope of around 30°, the solar water storage tank volume of 1.4 m"3, inlet hot water temperature of 80 °C, and a hot water flow rate of 0.33 kg/s. An economic analysis was further investigated and the results showed that the solar driven adsorption cooling system could reduce the electricity consumption for Perth and Amman cities by 34% and 28%, respectively in comparison to a conventional vapour compression cooling system.

  3. Establishment and performance of an experimental green roof under extreme climatic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Petra M; Coffman, Reid

    2015-04-15

    Green roofs alter the surface energy balance and can help in mitigating urban heat islands. However, the cooling of green roofs due to evapotranspiration strongly depends on the climatic conditions, and vegetation type and density. In the Southern Central Plains of the United States, extreme weather events, such as high winds, heat waves and drought conditions pose challenges for successful implementation of green roofs, and likely alter their standard performance. The National Weather Center Experimental Green Roof, an interdisciplinary research site established in 2010 in Norman, OK, aimed to investigate the ecological performance and surface energy balance of green roof systems. Starting in May 2010, 26 months of vegetation studies were conducted and the radiation balance, air temperature, relative humidity, and buoyancy fluxes were monitored at two meteorological stations during April-October 2011. The establishment of a vegetative community trended towards prairie plant dominance. High mortality of succulents and low germination of grasses and herbaceous plants contributed to low vegetative coverage. In this condition succulent diversity declined. Bouteloua gracilis and Delosperma cooperi showed typological dominance in harsh climatic conditions, while Sedum species experienced high mortality. The plant community diversified through volunteers such as Euphorbia maculate and Portulaca maculate. Net radiation measured at a green-roof meteorological station was higher than at a control station over the original, light-colored roofing material. These findings indicate that the albedo of the green roof was lower than the albedo of the original roofing material. The low vegetative coverage during the heat and drought conditions in 2011, which resulted in the dark substrate used in the green roof containers being exposed, likely contributed to the low albedo values. Nevertheless, air temperatures and buoyancy fluxes were often lower over the green roof indicating

  4. Thermal comfort in air-conditioned mosques in the dry desert climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-ajmi, Farraj F. [Department of Civil Engineering, College of Technological Studies, Shuwaikh 70654 (Kuwait)

    2010-11-15

    In Kuwait, as in most countries with a typical dry desert climate, the summer season is long with a mean daily maximum temperature of 45 C. Centralized air-conditioning, which is generally deployed from the beginning of April to the end of October, can have tremendous impact on the amount of electrical energy utilized to mechanically control the internal environment in mosque buildings. The indoor air temperature settings for all types of air-conditioned buildings and mosque buildings in particular, are often calculated based on the analytical model of ASHRAE 55-2004 and ISO 7730. However, a field study was conducted in six air-conditioned mosque buildings during the summers of 2007 to investigate indoor climate and prayers thermal comfort in state of Kuwait. The paper presents statistical data about the indoor environmental conditions in Kuwait mosque buildings, together with an analysis of prayer thermal comfort sensations for a total of 140 subjects providing 140 sets of physical measurements and subjective questionnaires were used to collect data. Results show that the neutral temperature (T{sub n}) of the prayers is found to be 26.1 C, while that for PMV is 23.3 C. Discrepancy of these values is in fact about 2.8 C higher than those predicted by PMV model. Therefore, thermal comfort temperature in Kuwait cannot directly correlate with ISO 7730 and ASHRAE 55-2004 standards. Findings from this study should be considered when designing air conditioning for mosque buildings. This knowledge can contribute towards the development of future energy-related design codes for Kuwait. (author)

  5. Climate and Health Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccato, P.

    2015-12-01

    The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases ( malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities; ministries of health; the WMO Global Framework for Climate and Services; and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above with examples in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Malawi.

  6. Optimization of hydrostatic pressure at varied sonication conditions--power density, intensity, very low frequency--for isothermal ultrasonic sludge treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delmas, Henri; Le, Ngoc Tuan; Barthe, Laurie; Julcour-Lebigue, Carine

    2015-07-01

    This work aims at investigating for the first time the key sonication (US) parameters: power density (DUS), intensity (IUS), and frequency (FS) - down to audible range, under varied hydrostatic pressure (Ph) and low temperature isothermal conditions (to avoid any thermal effect). The selected application was activated sludge disintegration, a major industrial US process. For a rational approach all comparisons were made at same specific energy input (ES, US energy per solid weight) which is also the relevant economic criterion. The decoupling of power density and intensity was obtained by either changing the sludge volume or most often by changing probe diameter, all other characteristics being unchanged. Comprehensive results were obtained by varying the hydrostatic pressure at given power density and intensity. In all cases marked maxima of sludge disintegration appeared at optimum pressures, which values increased at increasing power intensity and density. Such optimum was expected due to opposite effects of increasing hydrostatic pressure: higher cavitation threshold then smaller and fewer bubbles, but higher temperature and pressure at the end of collapse. In addition the first attempt to lower US frequency down to audible range was very successful: at any operation condition (DUS, IUS, Ph, sludge concentration and type) higher sludge disintegration was obtained at 12 kHz than at 20 kHz. The same values of optimum pressure were observed at 12 and 20 kHz. At same energy consumption the best conditions - obtained at 12 kHz, maximum power density 720 W/L and 3.25 bar - provided about 100% improvement with respect to usual conditions (1 bar, 20 kHz). Important energy savings and equipment size reduction may then be expected. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Future climate impact on unfavorable meteorological conditions for the dispersion of air pollution in Brussels

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Troch, Rozemien; Berckmans, Julie; Giot, Olivier; Hamdi, Rafiq; Termonia, Piet

    2015-04-01

    Belgium is one of the several countries in Europe where air quality levels of different pollutants such as ozone, NOx, and Particulate Matter (PM) still exceed the prescribed European norms multiple times a year (EEA, 2014). These pollution peaks have a great impact on health and environment, in particular in large cities and urban environments. It is well known that observed concentrations of air pollutants are strongly influenced by emissions and meteorological conditions and therefore is sensitive to climate change. As the effects of global climate change are increasingly felt in Belgium, policy makers express growing interest in quantifying its effect on air pollution and the effort required to meet the air quality targets in the next years and decennia (Lauwaet et al., 2014). In this study, two different stability indices are calculated for a 9-year period using present (1991-1999) and future (2047-2055) climate data that has been obtained from a dynamically downscaling of Global Climate Model data from the Arpège model using the ALARO model at 4 km spatial resolution. The ALARO model is described in detail in previous validation studies from De Troch et al. (2013) and Hamdi et al. (2013). The first index gives a measure of the horizontal and vertical transport of nonreactive pollutants in stable atmospheric conditions and has been proposed and tested by Termonia and Quinet (2004). It gives a characteristic length scale l which is the ratio of the mean horizontal wind speed and the Brunt-Väisälä frequency. In this way low values for l in the lower part of the boundary layer during an extended time span of 12 hours, correspond to calm situations and a stable atmosphere and thus indicate unfavorable conditions for the dispersion of air pollution. This transport index is similar to an index used in an old Pasquill-type scheme but is more convenient to use to detect the strongest pollution peaks. The well known Pasquill classes are also calculated in order to

  8. Simulation of Deep Water Renewal in Crater Lake, Oregon, USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Wood, T. M.; Wherry, S.; Girdner, S.

    2015-12-01

    We applied a 1-dimensional lake model developed to simulate deep mixing related to thermobaric instabilities in temperate lakes to Crater Lake, a 590-m deep caldera lake in Oregon's Cascade Range known for its stunning deep blue color and extremely clear water, in order to determine the frequency of deep water renewal in future climate conditions. The lake model was calibrated with 6 years of water temperature profiles, and then simulated 10 years of validation data with an RMSE ranging from 0.81°C at 50 m depth to 0.04°C at 350-460 m depth. The simulated time series of heat content in the deep lake accurately captured extreme years characterized by weak and strong deep water renewal. The lake model uses wind speed and lake surface temperature (LST) as boundary conditions. LST projections under six climate scenarios from the CMIP5 intermodel comparison project (2 representative concentration pathways X 3 general circulation models) were evaluated with air2water, a simple lumped model that only requires daily values of downscaled air temperature. air2water was calibrated with data from 1993-2011, resulting in a RMSE between simulated and observed daily LST values of 0.68°C. All future climate scenarios project increased water temperature throughout the water column and a substantive reduction in the frequency of deepwater renewal events. The least extreme scenario (CNRM-CM5, RCP4.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to decrease from about 1 in 2 years in the present to about 1 in 3 years by 2100. The most extreme scenario (HadGEM2-ES, RCP8.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to be less than 1 in 7 years by 2100 and lake surface temperatures never cooling to less than 4°C after 2050. In all RCP4.5 simulations the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C for increasing periods of time. In the RCP8.5 simulations, the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C year round by the year 2060 (HadGEM2

  9. Corrosion study of API 5L x-series pipeline steels in 3.5% NaCl solution under varying conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahid, M.; Qureshi, M.I.; Farooq, M.U.; Khan, M.I.

    2003-01-01

    Pipelines provide convenient and efficient means for mass transportation of variety of fluids, such as oil and gas, over varying distances. In the last two decades or so, pipeline designers focused mainly on the usage of larger sizes and higher operating pressures for achieving higher transportation efficiency. This has been accomplished through the provision of steels with progressive increase in yield strength coupled with good weldability and sufficient toughness to restrict crack propagation. In addition to higher strength and toughness, developing pipeline technologies have required improved resistance to corrosion, which has been tried with specific alloy additions and special control over non-metallic inclusions. Corrosion investigations were carried out on various grades of pipeline steels (API 5L X-46, X-52, X-56, X-60 and X- 70) under varying environmental conditions. This paper describes the results pertaining to corrosion behavior of the steels in 3.5% NaCl solutions in stagnant, turbulent and deaerated conditions. It was found that all grades corrode in this solution and their corrosion potentials and corrosion currents are in close vicinity of each other. Turbulent solutions, however, have shown an increase in corrosion rates whereas deaeration has revealed a relative decrease in aggressivity of the electrolyte. (author)

  10. Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blomberg, Erik J.; Sedinger, James S.; Gibson, Daniel; Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre- and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio-marked greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site-level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage-grouse may have indirect benefits

  11. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.

    1992-01-01

    The scope of the research program and the continuation is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 x 3.0 x 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Co., Inc. (RBOSC) through a separate cooperative agreement with the University of Wyoming (UW) to carry out this study. Three of the lysimeters were established at the RBOSC Tract C-a in the Piceance Basin of Colorado. Two lysimeters were established in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL) at UW. The ESL was specifically designed and constructed so that a large range of climatic conditions could be physically applied to the processed oil shale which was filled in the lysimeter cells

  12. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, J.P.; Reeves, T.L.; Skinner, Q.D.; Hasfurther, V.

    1992-11-01

    The scope of the original research program and of its continuation is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large-scale testing sufficient to describe commercial-scale embankment behavior. The large-scale testing was accomplished by constructing five lysimeters, each 7.3x3.0x3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process (Schmalfield 1975). Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Co., Inc. to carry out this study. Three of the lysimeters were established at the RBOSC Tract C-a in the Piceance Basin near Rifle, Colorado. Two lysimeters were established in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL) at UW. The ESL was specifically designed and constructed so that a large range of climatic conditions could be physically applied to the processed oil shale which was placed in the lysimeter cells. This report discusses and summarizes results from scientific efforts conducted between October 1991 and September 1992 for Fiscal Year 1992

  13. Flight activity and responses to climatic conditions of two subspecies of Melipona marginata Lepeletier (Apidae, Meliponinae)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kleinert-Giovannini, A; Imperatriz-Fonseca, V L

    1986-01-01

    The flight activity of two colonies of M. m. marginata and six colonies of M. m. obscurior was studied in Sao Paulo, Brazil during three periods in 1981-1983. All colonies were hived except for one colony of M. m. obscurior which nested in a hollow tree. The two subspecies showed the same responses to the climatic factors analyzed. Flight activity was correlated positively with temperature and negatively with RH. In favorable conditions foraging took place throughout the day but both species were most active between 11 and 13 h. In the last observation period (October 1982-January 1983), when only two obscurior colonies were studied, flight activity was not correlated to RH, occurring even when RH was unfavorably high. This was a very rainy season, and it is suggested that the behavior of the bees indicates a flexible response to prevailing weather conditions.

  14. Determination of optimal irrigation rates of agricultural crops under consideration of soil properties and climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irakli Kruashvili

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In conditions of increasing water shortage, further development of irrigated agriculture production is impossible without improving the methods of cultivation of agricultural crops, primarily irrigation technology. In 2015 the experiment have been conducted on the territory of irrigation farming area of village Tamarisi (Marneuli Municipality, according to which comprehensive study of local climatic and soil conditions were conducted. Received data were used for computation crop water requirements for tomato and melon under the different irrigation treatments. Obtained results have shown the possibility of water use efficiency and obtaining sufficiently high yields of crops that participated in the experiment that became possible in a case of usage of drip irrigation technology in combination with plastic mulch.

  15. Accounts from 19th-century Canadian Arctic explorers' logs reflect present climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overland, James E.; Wood, Kevin

    The widely perceived failure of 19th-century expeditions to find and transit the Northwest Passage in the Canadian Arctic is often attributed to extraordinary cold climatic conditions associated with the “Little Ice Age” evident in proxy records. However, examination of 44 explorers' logs for the western Arctic from 1818 to 1910 reveals that climate indicators such as navigability, the distribution and thickness of annual sea ice, monthly surface air temperature, and the onset of melt and freeze were within the present range of variability.The quest for the Northwest Passage through the Canadian archipelago during the 19th century is frequently seen as a vain and tragic failure. Polar exploration during the Victorian era seems to us today to have been a costly exercise in heroic futility, which in many respects it was. This perspective has been reinforced since the 1970s, when paleoclimate reconstructions based on Arctic ice core stratigraphy appeared to confirm the existence of exceptionally cold conditions consistent with the period glaciologists had termed the “Little Ice Age” (Figure 1a), with temperatures more than one standard deviation colder relative to an early 20th-century mean [Koerner, 1977; Koerner and Fisher, 1990; Overpeck et al., 1998]. In recent years, the view of the Little Ice Age as a synchronous worldwide and prolonged cold epoch that ended with modern warming has been questioned [Bradley and Jones, 1993; Jones and Briffa, 2001 ;Ogilvie, 2001].

  16. A new luminescence dating chronology for the Rhafas cave site (NE Morocco): Insights into Palaeolithic human cultural change under varying palaeoenvironmental conditions in the Maghreb

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dörschner, Nina; Fitzsimmons, Kathryn E.; Ditchfield, Peter; McLaren, Sue J.; Steele, Teresa E.; Zielhofer, Christoph; McPherron, Shannon P.; Bouzouggar, Abdeljalil; Hublin, Jean-Jacques

    2016-04-01

    Archaeological sites in northern Africa provide a rich record that is of increasing importance for current debates relating to the origins of modern human behaviour and to Out of Africa human dispersal events. Particular interest is placed on the cultural transition between the North African Middle Stone Age (MSA) and Late Stone Age (LSA), and the need for accurately defined chronologies, however the timing and nature of Palaeolithic human behaviour and dispersal across north-western Africa (the Maghreb) and potential correlation with environmental conditions remain poorly understood. The inland cave site of Rhafas (Morocco) preserves a long stratified sequence providing valuable chronological information about cultural changes in the Maghreb spanning the North African MSA through to the Neolithic. In this study, we apply optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating on sand-sized quartz grains to the cave deposits of Rhafas as well as to a section on the terrace in front of the cave entrance. Single grain OSL dating reliably constrains the timing of technocomplexes beyond the limits of radiocarbon by directly dating sediment associated with archaeological traces. We combine OSL dating with multi-proxy geological investigations (XRF, grain size analyses, stable isotopes, thin sections) to investigate site formation processes and reconstruct palaeoenvironmental conditions during human occupation phases at Rhafas. Our results indicate that the occupation of the site started at least in MIS 6 during a phase of relatively arid environmental conditions. Climatic amelioration after c.140 ka is associated with a change in sediment geochemistry at the site, most likely linked to a change in sediment source due to shifting wind directions. Tanged pieces - typical for the classical Aterian technocomplex - start to occur in the archaeological sequence in MIS 5, consistent with previously published chronological data from the Maghreb. From 55 ka, climatic conditions were

  17. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. Hydraulic-mechanical (H-M) issues are also handled but no coupled flow modelling is done. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle for subsequent use in safety assessment applications within SKB's project SR-Site. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 19,000 years. The simulation results comprise residual fluid pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance, the speed of the ice sheet margin, the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties, the temperature at the ice-subsurface interface close to the ice sheet margin, and the initial hydrochemical conditions.

  18. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidstrand, Patrik; Follin, Sven; Zugec, Nada

    2010-12-01

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. Hydraulic-mechanical (H-M) issues are also handled but no coupled flow modelling is done. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle for subsequent use in safety assessment applications within SKB's project SR-Site. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 19,000 years. The simulation results comprise residual fluid pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance, the speed of the ice sheet margin, the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties, the temperature at the ice-subsurface interface close to the ice sheet margin, and the initial hydrochemical conditions

  19. Climate and Population Health Vulnerabilities to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience Under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccato, P.; McDonald, K. C.; Podest, E.; De La Torre Juarez, M.; Kruczkiewicz, A.; Lessel, J.; Jensen, K.; Thomson, M. C.

    2014-12-01

    The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities, ministries of health and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above.

  20. Tribological and Wear Performance of Carbide Tools with TiB2 PVD Coating under Varying Machining Conditions of TiAl6V4 Aerospace Alloy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Mario Paiva

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Tribological phenomena and tool wear mechanisms during machining of hard-to-cut TiAl6V4 aerospace alloy have been investigated in detail. Since cutting tool wear is directly affected by tribological phenomena occurring between the surfaces of the workpiece and the cutting tool, the performance of the cutting tool is strongly associated with the conditions of the machining process. The present work shows the effect of different machining conditions on the tribological and wear performance of TiB2-coated cutting tools compared to uncoated carbide tools. FEM modeling of the temperature profile on the friction surface was performed for wet machining conditions under varying cutting parameters. Comprehensive characterization of the TiB2 coated vs. uncoated cutting tool wear performance was made using optical 3D imaging, SEM/EDX and XPS methods respectively. The results obtained were linked to the FEM modeling. The studies carried out show that during machining of the TiAl6V4 alloy, the efficiency of the TiB2 coating application for carbide cutting tools strongly depends on cutting conditions. The TiB2 coating is very efficient under roughing at low speeds (with strong buildup edge formation. In contrast, it shows similar wear performance to the uncoated tool under finishing operations at higher cutting speeds when cratering wear predominates.

  1. Automatic Traffic Data Collection under Varying Lighting and Temperature Conditions in Multimodal Environments: Thermal versus Visible Spectrum Video-Based Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Fu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Vision-based monitoring systems using visible spectrum (regular video cameras can complement or substitute conventional sensors and provide rich positional and classification data. Although new camera technologies, including thermal video sensors, may improve the performance of digital video-based sensors, their performance under various conditions has rarely been evaluated at multimodal facilities. The purpose of this research is to integrate existing computer vision methods for automated data collection and evaluate the detection, classification, and speed measurement performance of thermal video sensors under varying lighting and temperature conditions. Thermal and regular video data was collected simultaneously under different conditions across multiple sites. Although the regular video sensor narrowly outperformed the thermal sensor during daytime, the performance of the thermal sensor is significantly better for low visibility and shadow conditions, particularly for pedestrians and cyclists. Retraining the algorithm on thermal data yielded an improvement in the global accuracy of 48%. Thermal speed measurements were consistently more accurate than for the regular video at daytime and nighttime. Thermal video is insensitive to lighting interference and pavement temperature, solves issues associated with visible light cameras for traffic data collection, and offers other benefits such as privacy, insensitivity to glare, storage space, and lower processing requirements.

  2. Lake-level increasing under the climate cryoaridization conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amosov, Mikhail; Strelkov, Ivan

    2017-04-01

    A lake genesis and lake-level increasing during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are the paramount issues in paleoclimatology. Investigating these problems reveals the regularities of lake development and figures out an arid territory conditions at the LGM stage. Pluvial theory is the most prevalent conception of lake formation during the LGM. This theory is based on a fact that the water bodies emerged and their level increased due to torrential rainfalls. In this study, it is paid attention to an alternative assumption of lake genesis at the LGM stage, which is called climate cryoaridization. In accordance with this hypothesis, the endorheic water basins had their level enlarged because of a simultaneous climate aridity and temperature decrease. In this research, a lake-level increasing in endorheic regions of Central Asia and South American Altiplano of the Andes is described. The lake investigation is related to its conditions during the LGM. The study also includes a lake catalogue clearly presenting the basin conditions at the LGM stage and nowadays. The data compilation partly consists of information from an earlier work of Mikhail Amosov, Lake-levels, Vegetation And Climate In Central Asia During The Last Glacial Maximum (EGU2014-3015). According to the investigation, a lake catalogue on 27 lakes showed that most of the water bodies had higher level. This feature could be mentioned for the biggest lakes of the Aral Sea, Lake Balkhash, Issyk-Kul etc. and for the small ones located in the mountains, such as Pamir, Tian-Shan and Tibet. Yet some lakes that are situated in Central Asian periphery (Lake Qinghai and lakes in Inner Mongolia) used to be lower than nowadays. Also, the lake-level increasing of Altiplano turned to be a significant feature during the LGM in accordance with the data of 5 lakes, such as Titicaca, Coipasa-Uyuni, Lejia, Miscanti and Santa-Maria. Most of the current endorheic basins at the LGM stage were filled with water due to abundant

  3. The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

    1988-01-01

    A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

  4. The Climate for Steel. Actions for, and conditions to, a Copenhagen climate agreement from the perspective of the EU steel sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slingerland, S.; Werring, L.; De Bruijn, S.; Korteland, M.

    2009-02-01

    A position paper discussing the relationship between climate change policies and competitiveness in the global steel sector. Question is how the need for effective action to confront global climate change can be combined with a level playing field for competition in the global steel sector, taking into account the position of Corus Netherlands as a European steel producer. More specifically; what conditions in an international agreement could provide such a level playing field? Chapter 2 of this paper briefly outlines some essential characteristics of the global and European steel sector. Chapter 3 outlines the present status quo of the multilateral climate change negotiation process towards the December 2009 Copenhagen conference. Chapter 4 gives a view on climate and competitiveness for the EU steel sector. Chapter 5 finally provides conclusions and recommendations for provisions in an international agreement that could provide for a competitive level playing field in the steel sector

  5. Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Zabel

    Full Text Available Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010, considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia. Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

  6. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2007-02-15

    Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

  7. The effect of bedload transport rates on bedform and planform morphological development in a laboratory meandering stream under varying flow conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, C.; Good, R. G. R.; Binns, A. D.

    2017-12-01

    Sediment transport processes in streams provides valuable insight into the temporal evolution of planform and bedform geometry. The majority of previous experimental research in the literature has focused on bedload transport and corresponding bedform development in rectangular, confined channels, which does not consider planform adjustment processes in streams. In contrast, research conducted with laboratory streams having movable banks can investigate planform development in addition to bedform development, which is more representative of natural streams. The goal of this research is to explore the relationship between bedload transport rates and the morphological adjustments in meandering streams. To accomplish this, a series of experimental runs were conducted in a 5.6 m by 1.9 m river basin flume at the University of Guelph to analyze the bedload impacts on bed formations and planform adjustments in response to varying flow conditions. In total, three experimental runs were conducted: two runs using steady state conditions and one run using unsteady flow conditions in the form of a symmetrical hydrograph implementing quasi steady state flow. The runs were performed in a series of time-steps in order to monitor the evolution of the stream morphology and the bedload transport rates. Structure from motion (SfM) was utilized to capture the channel morphology after each time-step, and Agisoft PhotoScan software was used to produce digital elevation models to analyze the morphological evolution of the channel with time. Bedload transport rates were quantified using a sediment catch at the end of the flume. Although total flow volumes were similar for each run, the morphological evolution and bedload transport rates in each run varied. The observed bedload transport rates from the flume are compared with existing bedload transport formulas to assess their accuracy with respect to sediment transport in unconfined meandering channels. The measured sediment transport

  8. On the formation of sulphuric acid – amine clusters in varying atmospheric conditions and its influence on atmospheric new particle formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. K. Ortega

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Sulphuric acid is a key component in atmospheric new particle formation. However, sulphuric acid alone does not form stable enough clusters to initiate particle formation in atmospheric conditions. Strong bases, such as amines, have been suggested to stabilize sulphuric acid clusters and thus participate in particle formation. We modelled the formation rate of clusters with two sulphuric acid and two amine molecules (JA2B2 at varying atmospherically relevant conditions with respect to concentrations of sulphuric acid ([H2SO4], dimethylamine ([DMA] and trimethylamine ([TMA], temperature and relative humidity (RH. We also tested how the model results change if we assume that the clusters with two sulphuric acid and two amine molecules would act as seeds for heterogeneous nucleation of organic vapours (other than amines with higher atmospheric concentrations than sulphuric acid. The modelled formation rates JA2B2 were functions of sulphuric acid concentration with close to quadratic dependence, which is in good agreement with atmospheric observations of the connection between the particle formation rate and sulphuric acid concentration. The coefficients KA2B2 connecting the cluster formation rate and sulphuric acid concentrations as JA2B2=KA2B2[H2SO4]2 turned out to depend also on amine concentrations, temperature and relative humidity. We compared the modelled coefficients KA2B2 with the corresponding coefficients calculated from the atmospheric observations (Kobs from environments with varying temperatures and levels of anthropogenic influence. By taking into account the modelled behaviour of JA2B2 as a function of [H2SO4], temperature and RH, the atmospheric particle formation rate was reproduced more closely than with the traditional semi-empirical formulae based on sulphuric acid concentration only. The formation rates of clusters with two sulphuric acid and two amine molecules with different amine compositions (DMA or TMA or one of both had

  9. Evaluating Thermal Comfort in a Naturally Conditioned Office in a Temperate Climate Zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés Gallardo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine the optimal approach for evaluating thermal comfort in an office that uses natural ventilation as the main conditioning strategy; the office is located in Quito-Ecuador. The performance of the adaptive model included in CEN Standard EN15251 and the traditional PMV model are compared with reports of thermal environment satisfaction surveys presented simultaneously to all occupants of the office to determine which of the two comfort models is most suitable to evaluate the thermal environment. The results indicate that office occupants have developed some degree of adaptation to the climatic conditions of the city where the office is located (which only demands heating operation, and tend to accept and even prefer lower operative temperatures than those considered optimum by applying the PMV model. This is an indication that occupants of naturally conditioned buildings are usually able to match their comfort temperature to their normal environment. Therefore, the application of the adaptive model included in CEN Standard EN15251 seems like the optimal approach for evaluating thermal comfort in naturally conditioned buildings, because it takes into consideration the adaptive principle that indicates that if a change occurs such as to produce discomfort, people tend to react in ways which restore their comfort.

  10. Establishment and performance of an experimental green roof under extreme climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klein, Petra M., E-mail: pkklein@ou.edu [School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Coffman, Reid, E-mail: rcoffma4@kent.edu [College of Architecture and Environmental Design, Kent State University, Kent, OH (United States)

    2015-04-15

    Green roofs alter the surface energy balance and can help in mitigating urban heat islands. However, the cooling of green roofs due to evapotranspiration strongly depends on the climatic conditions, and vegetation type and density. In the Southern Central Plains of the United States, extreme weather events, such as high winds, heat waves and drought conditions pose challenges for successful implementation of green roofs, and likely alter their standard performance. The National Weather Center Experimental Green Roof, an interdisciplinary research site established in 2010 in Norman, OK, aimed to investigate the ecological performance and surface energy balance of green roof systems. Starting in May 2010, 26 months of vegetation studies were conducted and the radiation balance, air temperature, relative humidity, and buoyancy fluxes were monitored at two meteorological stations during April–October 2011. The establishment of a vegetative community trended towards prairie plant dominance. High mortality of succulents and low germination of grasses and herbaceous plants contributed to low vegetative coverage. In this condition succulent diversity declined. Bouteloua gracilis and Delosperma cooperi showed typological dominance in harsh climatic conditions, while Sedum species experienced high mortality. The plant community diversified through volunteers such as Euphorbia maculate and Portulaca maculate. Net radiation measured at a green-roof meteorological station was higher than at a control station over the original, light-colored roofing material. These findings indicate that the albedo of the green roof was lower than the albedo of the original roofing material. The low vegetative coverage during the heat and drought conditions in 2011, which resulted in the dark substrate used in the green roof containers being exposed, likely contributed to the low albedo values. Nevertheless, air temperatures and buoyancy fluxes were often lower over the green roof indicating

  11. Establishment and performance of an experimental green roof under extreme climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, Petra M.; Coffman, Reid

    2015-01-01

    Green roofs alter the surface energy balance and can help in mitigating urban heat islands. However, the cooling of green roofs due to evapotranspiration strongly depends on the climatic conditions, and vegetation type and density. In the Southern Central Plains of the United States, extreme weather events, such as high winds, heat waves and drought conditions pose challenges for successful implementation of green roofs, and likely alter their standard performance. The National Weather Center Experimental Green Roof, an interdisciplinary research site established in 2010 in Norman, OK, aimed to investigate the ecological performance and surface energy balance of green roof systems. Starting in May 2010, 26 months of vegetation studies were conducted and the radiation balance, air temperature, relative humidity, and buoyancy fluxes were monitored at two meteorological stations during April–October 2011. The establishment of a vegetative community trended towards prairie plant dominance. High mortality of succulents and low germination of grasses and herbaceous plants contributed to low vegetative coverage. In this condition succulent diversity declined. Bouteloua gracilis and Delosperma cooperi showed typological dominance in harsh climatic conditions, while Sedum species experienced high mortality. The plant community diversified through volunteers such as Euphorbia maculate and Portulaca maculate. Net radiation measured at a green-roof meteorological station was higher than at a control station over the original, light-colored roofing material. These findings indicate that the albedo of the green roof was lower than the albedo of the original roofing material. The low vegetative coverage during the heat and drought conditions in 2011, which resulted in the dark substrate used in the green roof containers being exposed, likely contributed to the low albedo values. Nevertheless, air temperatures and buoyancy fluxes were often lower over the green roof indicating

  12. Reconstruction of Oryza sativa indica Genome Scale Metabolic Model and Its Responses to Varying RuBisCO Activity, Light Intensity, and Enzymatic Cost Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankita Chatterjee

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available To combat decrease in rice productivity under different stresses, an understanding of rice metabolism is needed. Though there are different genome scale metabolic models (GSMs of Oryza sativa japonica, no GSM with gene-protein-reaction association exist for Oryza sativa indica. Here, we report a GSM, OSI1136 of O.s. indica, which includes 3602 genes and 1136 metabolic reactions and transporters distributed across the cytosol, mitochondrion, peroxisome, and chloroplast compartments. Flux balance analysis of the model showed that for varying RuBisCO activity (Vc/Vo (i the activity of the chloroplastic malate valve increases to transport reducing equivalents out of the chloroplast under increased photorespiratory conditions and (ii glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase and phosphoglycerate kinase can act as source of cytosolic ATP under decreased photorespiration. Under increasing light conditions we observed metabolic flexibility, involving photorespiration, chloroplastic triose phosphate and the dicarboxylate transporters of the chloroplast and mitochondrion for redox and ATP exchanges across the intracellular compartments. Simulations under different enzymatic cost conditions revealed (i participation of peroxisomal glutathione-ascorbate cycle in photorespiratory H2O2 metabolism (ii different modes of the chloroplastic triose phosphate transporters and malate valve, and (iii two possible modes of chloroplastic Glu–Gln transporter which were related with the activity of chloroplastic and cytosolic isoforms of glutamine synthetase. Altogether, our results provide new insights into plant metabolism.

  13. Potential Alternative Lower Global Warming Refrigerants for Air Conditioning in Hot Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL; Shrestha, Som S [ORNL; Shen, Bo [ORNL

    2017-01-01

    The earth continues to see record increase in temperatures and extreme weather conditions that is largely driven by anthropogenic emissions of warming gases such as carbon dioxide and other more potent greenhouse gases such as refrigerants. The cooperation of 188 countries in the Conference of the Parties in Paris 2015 (COP21) resulted in an agreement aimed to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2 C. A global phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) can prevent 0.5 C of warming by 2100. However, most of the countries in hot climates are considered as developing countries and as such are still using R-22 (a Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC)) as the baseline refrigerant and are currently undergoing a phase-out of R-22 which is controlled by current Montreal Protocol to R-410A and other HFC based refrigerants. These HFCs have significantly high Global Warming Potential (GWP) and might not perform as well as R-22 at high ambient temperature conditions. In this paper we present recent results on evaluating the performance of alternative lower GWP refrigerants for R-22 and R-410A for small residential mini-split air conditioners and large commercial packaged units. Results showed that several of the alternatives would provide adequate replacement for R-22 with minor system modification. For the R-410A system, results showed that some of the alternatives were almost drop-in ready with benefit in efficiency and/or capacity. One of the most promising alternatives for R-22 mini-split unit is propane (R-290) as it offers higher efficiency; however it requires compressor and some other minor system modification to maintain capacity and minimize flammability risk. Between the R-410A alternatives, R-32 appears to have a competitive advantage; however at the cost of higher compressor discharge temperature. With respect to the hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) blends, there existed a tradeoff in performance and system design

  14. Performance Analysis of Air-to-Water Heat Pump in Latvian Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazjonovs, Janis; Sipkevics, Andrejs; Jakovics, Andris; Dancigs, Andris; Bajare, Diana; Dancigs, Leonards

    2014-12-01

    Strategy of the European Union in efficient energy usage demands to have a higher proportion of renewable energy in the energy market. Since heat pumps are considered to be one of the most efficient heating and cooling systems, they will play an important role in the energy consumption reduction in buildings aimed to meet the target of nearly zero energy buildings set out in the EU Directive 2010/31/EU. Unfortunately, the declared heat pump Coefficient of Performance (COP) corresponds to a certain outdoor temperature (+7 °C), therefore different climate conditions, building characteristics and settings result in different COP values during the year. The aim of this research is to investigate the Seasonal Performance factor (SPF) values of air-to-water heat pump which better characterize the effectiveness of heat pump in a longer selected period of time, especially during the winter season, in different types of residential buildings in Latvian climate conditions. Latvia has four pronounced seasons of near-equal length. Winter starts in mid-December and lasts until mid-March. Latvia is characterized by cold, maritime climate (duration of the average heating period being 203 days, the average outdoor air temperature during the heating period being 0.0 °C, the coldest five-day average temperature being -20.7 °C, the average annual air temperature being +6.2 °C, the daily average relative humidity being 79 %). The first part of this research consists of operational air-towater heat pump energy performance monitoring in different residential buildings during the winter season. The second part of the research takes place under natural conditions in an experimental construction stand which is located in an urban environment in Riga, Latvia. The inner area of this test stand, where air-to-water heat pump performance is analyzed, is 9 m2. The ceiling height is 3 m, all external wall constructions (U = 0.16 W/(m2K)) have ventilated facades. To calculate SPF, the

  15. Popular culture and the "new human condition": Catastrophe narratives and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulfin, Ailise

    2017-09-01

    Striking popular culture images of burnt landscapes, tidal waves and ice-bound cities have the potential to dramatically and emotively convey the dangers of climate change. Given that a significant number of people derive a substantial proportion of their information on the threat of climate change, or the ;new human condition;, from popular culture works such as catastrophe movies, it is important that an investigation into the nature of the representations produced be embedded in the attempt to address the issue. What climate change-related messages may be encoded in popular films, television and novels, how are they being received, and what effects may they have? This article adopts the cultural studies perspective that popular culture gives us an important means by which to access the ;structures of feeling; that characterise a society at a particular historic juncture: the views held and emotional states experienced by significant amounts of people as evident in disparate forms of cultural production. It further adopts the related viewpoint that popular culture has an effect upon the society in which it is consumed, as well as reflecting that society's desires and concerns - although the nature of the effect may be difficult to quantify. From this position, the article puts forward a theory on the role of ecological catastrophe narratives in current popular culture, before going on to review existing critical work on ecologically-charged popular films and novels which attempts to assess their effects on their audiences. It also suggests areas for future research, such as the prevalent but little studied theme of natural and environmental disaster in late-Victorian science fiction writing. This latter area is of interest because it reveals the emergence of an ecological awareness or structure of feeling as early as the late-nineteenth century, and allows the relationship of this development to environmental policy making to be investigated because of the

  16. Differences in nutrient uptake capacity of the benthic filamentous algae Cladophora sp., Klebsormidium sp. and Pseudanabaena sp. under varying N/P conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Junzhuo; Vyverman, Wim

    2015-03-01

    The N/P ratio of wastewater can vary greatly and directly affect algal growth and nutrient removal process. Three benthic filamentous algae species Cladophora sp., Klebsormidium sp. and Pseudanabaena sp. were isolated from a periphyton bioreactor and cultured under laboratory conditions on varying N/P ratios to determine their ability to remove nitrate and phosphorus. The N/P ratio significantly influenced the algal growth and phosphorus uptake process. Appropriate N/P ratios for nitrogen and phosphorus removal were 5-15, 7-10 and 7-20 for Cladophora sp., Klebsormidium sp. and Pseudanabaena sp., respectively. Within these respective ranges, Cladophora sp. had the highest biomass production, while Pseudanabaena sp. had the highest nitrogen and phosphorus contents. This study indicated that Cladophora sp. had a high capacity of removing phosphorus from wastewaters of low N/P ratio, and Pseudanabaena sp. was highly suitable for removing nitrogen from wastewaters with high N/P ratio. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Detailed performance analysis of realistic solar photovoltaic systems at extensive climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Ankit; Chauhan, Yogesh K.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, solar energy has been considered as one of the principle renewable energy source for electric power generation. In this paper, single diode photovoltaic (PV) system and double/bypass diode based PV system are designed in MATLAB/Simulink environment based on their mathematical modeling and are validated with a commercially available solar panel. The novelty of the paper is to include the effect of climatic conditions i.e. variable irradiation level, wind speed, temperature, humidity level and dust accumulation in the modeling of both the PV systems to represent a realistic PV system. The comprehensive investigations are made on both the modeled PV systems. The obtained results show the satisfactory performance for realistic models of the PV system. Furthermore, an in depth comparative analysis is carried out for both PV systems. - Highlights: • Modeling of Single diode and Double diode PV systems in MATLAB/Simulink software. • Validation of designed PV systems with a commercially available PV panel. • Acquisition and employment of key climatic factors in modeling of the PV systems. • Evaluation of main model parameters of both the PV systems. • Detailed comparative assessment of both the modeled PV system parameters.

  18. Monitoring Thermal Performance of Hollow Bricks with Different Cavity Fillers in Difference Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlík, Zbyšek; Jerman, Miloš; Fořt, Jan; Černý, Robert

    2015-03-01

    Hollow brick blocks have found widespread use in the building industry during the last decades. The increasing requirements to the thermal insulation properties of building envelopes given by the national standards in Europe led the brick producers to reduce the production of common solid bricks. Brick blocks with more or less complex systems of internal cavities replaced the traditional bricks and became dominant on the building ceramics market. However, contrary to the solid bricks where the thermal conductivity can easily be measured by standard methods, the complex geometry of hollow brick blocks makes the application of common techniques impossible. In this paper, a steady-state technique utilizing a system of two climatic chambers separated by a connecting tunnel for sample positioning is used for the determination of the thermal conductivity, thermal resistance, and thermal transmittance ( U value) of hollow bricks with the cavities filled by air, two different types of mineral wool, polystyrene balls, and foam polyurethane. The particular brick block is provided with the necessary temperature- and heat-flux sensors and thermally insulated in the tunnel. In the climatic chambers, different temperatures are set. After steady-state conditions are established in the measuring system, the effective thermal properties of the brick block are calculated using the measured data. Experimental results show that the best results are achieved with hydrophilic mineral wool as a cavity filler; the worst performance exhibits the brick block with air-filled cavities.

  19. Kinetically limited weathering at low denudation rates in semiarid climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoonejans, Jérôme; Vanacker, Veerle; Opfergelt, Sophie; Ameijeiras-Mariño, Yolanda; Christl, Marcus

    2016-02-01

    Biogeochemical cycling within the Critical Zone depends on the interactions between minerals and fluids controlling chemical weathering and physical erosion rates. In this study, we explore the role of water availability in controlling soil chemical weathering in semiarid climatic conditions. Weathering rates and intensities were evaluated for nine soil profiles located on convex ridge crests of three mountain ranges in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. We combine a geochemical mass balance with 10Be cosmogenic nuclides to constrain chemical weathering intensities and long-term denudation rates. As such, this study presents new data on chemical weathering and 10Be-derived denudation for understudied semiarid climate systems. In the Betic Cordillera, chemical weathering intensities are relatively low (~5 to 30% of the total denudation of the soil) and negatively correlated with the magnitude of the water deficit in soils. Chemical mass losses are inversely related to denudation rates (14-109 mm/kyr) and positively to soil thickness (14-58 cm); these results are consistent with kinetic limitation of chemical weathering rates. A worldwide compilation of chemical weathering data suggests that soil water balance may regulate the coupling between chemical weathering and physical erosion by modulating soil solute fluxes. Therefore, future landscape evolution models that seek to link chemical weathering and physical erosion should include soil water flux as an essential driver of weathering.

  20. Cropland versus Gariga schrubland on soil organic carbon storage under Mediterranen climatic condition of Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novara, A.; Gristina, L.; Santoro, A.; Poma, I.

    2009-04-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) pool is the largest among the terrestrial pool and it plays a key role to mitigate climate change. The restoration of SOC pool represents a potential sink for atmospheric CO2. Land use is one of the most important factors controlling organic carbon content. The main land uses throughout the Mediterranean are croplands (olive, wheat and vineyards) and scrublands. The land abandonment or the reclamation of land is changing the cover of scrubland and cropland. This will change the carbon cycle. The aim of this work is determining the direction and magnitude of soil organic change associated with land use change under Mediterranean Climatic Conditions. Using both historic record and land cover crop maps we estimated the effect of land cover change on the stock carbon from 1972 to 2008 in Sicily. A system of paired plots was established on Mollic Gypsiric cambisol and Gypsiric cambisol on agriculture and rangeland land uses. The study sites were selected at the natural reserve "Grotta di S. Ninfa", in the West of Sicily. Soil samples (24) were taken at 20 and 40 cm depth, air dried and sieved at 2 mm. Dry aggregate size fractions selected were >1000 µm, 1000-500 µm, 500-250 µm, 250-63 µm, 63-25 µm and <25 µm. The results show that gariga increase the organic matter in soil, mainly on the organic horizon. Key worlds: Land use change, Soil organic Carbon , Mediterranean, aggregates, gariga, cropland.

  1. Sugarcane yield estimation for climatic conditions in the state of Goiás

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordana Moura Caetano

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Models that estimate potential and depleted crop yield according to climatic variable enable the crop planning and production quantification for a specific region. Therefore, the objective of this study was to compare methods to sugarcane yield estimates grown in the climatic condition in the central part of Goiás, Brazil. So, Agroecological Zone Method (ZAE and the model proposed by Scarpari (S were correlated with real data of sugarcane yield from an experimental area, located in Santo Antônio de Goiás, state of Goiás, Brazil. Data yield refer to the crops of 2008/2009 (sugarcane plant, 2009/2010, 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 (ratoon sugarcane. Yield rates were calculated as a function of atmospheric water demand and water deficit in the area under study. Real and estimated yields were adjusted in function of productivity loss due to cutting stage of sugarcane, using an average reduction in productivity observed in the experimental area and the average reduction in the state of Goiás. The results indicated that the ZAE method, considering the water deficit, displayed good yield estimates for cane-plant (d > 0.90. Water deficit decreased the yield rates (r = -0.8636; α = 0.05 while the thermal sum increased that rate for all evaluated harvests (r > 0.68; α = 0.05.

  2. Straw incorporation increases crop yield and soil organic carbon sequestration but varies under different natural conditions and farming practices in China: a system analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Han

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Loss of soil organic carbon (SOC from agricultural soils is a key indicator of soil degradation associated with reductions in net primary productivity in crop production systems worldwide. Technically simple and locally appropriate solutions are required for farmers to increase SOC and to improve cropland management. In the last 30 years, straw incorporation (SI has gradually been implemented across China in the context of agricultural intensification and rural livelihood improvement. A meta-analysis of data published before the end of 2016 was undertaken to investigate the effects of SI on crop production and SOC sequestration. The results of 68 experimental studies throughout China in different edaphic conditions, climate regions and farming regimes were analyzed. Compared with straw removal (SR, SI significantly sequestered SOC (0–20 cm depth at the rate of 0.35 (95 % CI, 0.31–0.40 Mg C ha−1 yr−1, increased crop grain yield by 13.4 % (9.3–18.4 % and had a conversion efficiency of the incorporated straw C of 16 % ± 2 % across China. The combined SI at the rate of 3 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 with mineral fertilizer of 200–400 kg N ha−1 yr−1 was demonstrated to be the best farming practice, where crop yield increased by 32.7 % (17.9–56.4 % and SOC sequestrated by the rate of 0.85 (0.54–1.15 Mg C ha−1 yr−1. SI achieved a higher SOC sequestration rate and crop yield increment when applied to clay soils under high cropping intensities, and in areas such as northeast China where the soil is being degraded. The SOC responses were highest in the initial starting phase of SI, then subsequently declined and finally became negligible after 28–62 years. However, crop yield responses were initially low and then increased, reaching their highest level at 11–15 years after SI. Overall, our study confirmed that SI created a positive feedback loop of SOC enhancement together with

  3. Straw incorporation increases crop yield and soil organic carbon sequestration but varies under different natural conditions and farming practices in China: a system analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Xiao; Xu, Cong; Dungait, Jennifer A. J.; Bol, Roland; Wang, Xiaojie; Wu, Wenliang; Meng, Fanqiao

    2018-04-01

    Loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) from agricultural soils is a key indicator of soil degradation associated with reductions in net primary productivity in crop production systems worldwide. Technically simple and locally appropriate solutions are required for farmers to increase SOC and to improve cropland management. In the last 30 years, straw incorporation (SI) has gradually been implemented across China in the context of agricultural intensification and rural livelihood improvement. A meta-analysis of data published before the end of 2016 was undertaken to investigate the effects of SI on crop production and SOC sequestration. The results of 68 experimental studies throughout China in different edaphic conditions, climate regions and farming regimes were analyzed. Compared with straw removal (SR), SI significantly sequestered SOC (0-20 cm depth) at the rate of 0.35 (95 % CI, 0.31-0.40) Mg C ha-1 yr-1, increased crop grain yield by 13.4 % (9.3-18.4 %) and had a conversion efficiency of the incorporated straw C of 16 % ± 2 % across China. The combined SI at the rate of 3 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 with mineral fertilizer of 200-400 kg N ha-1 yr-1 was demonstrated to be the best farming practice, where crop yield increased by 32.7 % (17.9-56.4 %) and SOC sequestrated by the rate of 0.85 (0.54-1.15) Mg C ha-1 yr-1. SI achieved a higher SOC sequestration rate and crop yield increment when applied to clay soils under high cropping intensities, and in areas such as northeast China where the soil is being degraded. The SOC responses were highest in the initial starting phase of SI, then subsequently declined and finally became negligible after 28-62 years. However, crop yield responses were initially low and then increased, reaching their highest level at 11-15 years after SI. Overall, our study confirmed that SI created a positive feedback loop of SOC enhancement together with increased crop production, and this is of great practical importance to straw management as agriculture

  4. Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.

    2005-02-01

    This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

  5. Mixed precipitation occurrences over southern Québec, Canada, under warmer climate conditions using a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Dominic; Thériault, Julie M.; Laprise, René

    2018-05-01

    Winter weather events with temperatures near 0°C are often associated with freezing rain. They can have major impacts on the society by causing power outages and disruptions to the transportation networks. Despite the catastrophic consequences of freezing rain, very few studies have investigated how their occurrences could evolve under climate change. This study aims to investigate the change of freezing rain and ice pellets over southern Québec using regional climate modeling at high resolution. The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model with climate scenario RCP 8.5 at 0.11° grid mesh was used. The precipitation types such as freezing rain, ice pellets or their combination are diagnosed using five methods (Cantin and Bachand, Bourgouin, Ramer, Czys and, Baldwin). The occurrences of the diagnosed precipitation types for the recent past (1980-2009) are found to be comparable to observations. The projections for the future scenario (2070-2099) suggested a general decrease in the occurrences of mixed precipitation over southern Québec from October to April. This is mainly due to a decrease in long-duration events (≥6 h ). Overall, this study contributes to better understand how the distribution of freezing rain and ice pellets might change in the future using high-resolution regional climate model.

  6. Climatic and environmental conditions favoring the crossing of the Carpathians by early Neolithic populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perşoiu, Ioana; Perşoiu, Aurel

    2015-04-01

    The study of the origin and spread of Neolithic has been the subject of heated debate since the early studies of Childe (1942). To what extent the dispersal process was influenced by environmental factors is still debated, one of the issues being whether climatic conditions influencing agricultural practices, could have influenced the dispersal route, "blocking" some of the Neolithic societies in front of ecological barriers. Data from Neolithic sites in SE Europe shows that a continuous stream of people and cultures flowed through the Danube's Iron Gates towards Central Europe, while in the eastern part of Europe this process was delayed, people and cultures "moving" around the Carpathians and crossing them with a delay of ca. 1000 years. One of the possible avenues for this crossing is the floodplain of Someşu Mic River (Transylvanian depression), home to the oldest (~8500 cal. BP) Neolithic settlement in Romania. In this paper, we review the climatic and environmental changes that affected the region at the time of Neolithic dispersal. Pollen and stable isotopes in cave ice indicate an early Holocene rapid warming during summer months, peaking around 7 ka cal. BP; and a delayed warming for autumn and winter months, peaking at 5 ka cal. BP, both followed by a continuous cooling trend towards the present. Someşu Mic River developed and maintained a narrow sinuous channel during the Holocene, with local development of meanders and anabranches, in response to both climatic and geologic controlling factors. Archaeological finds in the floodplain and the lower terraces suggest that human societies in the region responded in sensitive manner to these climatic and environmental changes. During warm and dry periods, with low fluvial activity, the number of settlements increased in the floodplain's perimeter, while during the short cold and humid periods, the number of settlements rapidly increased on the lower terraces and on the valley slopes, disappearing from the

  7. Life cycle of the potato golden cyst nematode (Globodera rostochiensis grown under climatic conditions in Belgrade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bačić Jasmina

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The life cycle of a population of the quarantine nematode Globodera rostochiensis on the root of susceptible potato variety, Desiree, originating from an infected field (CC Ljubovija no. 413 on the mountain of Jagodnja in the district of Mačva, was studied under experimental conditions in Belgrade in 2002-2003. The golden cyst nematode completed one generation per year in the temperate climate of this region. In 2002, the life cycle lasted 29 days after the penetration of the second stage juveniles into the roots. An adverse effect of high soil temperatures above 25 °C was observed in 2003, influencing the development of the nematode and making the life cycle last two months longer.

  8. Seed banks as a source of vegetation regeneration to support the recovery of degraded rivers: A comparison of river reaches of varying condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Jessica; Fryirs, Kirstie A; Leishman, Michelle R

    2016-01-15

    Anthropogenic disturbance has contributed to widespread geomorphic adjustment and the degradation of many rivers. This research compares for river reaches of varying condition, the potential for seed banks to support geomorphic river recovery through vegetation regeneration. Seven river reaches in the lower Hunter catchment of south-eastern Australia were assessed as being in poor, moderate, or good condition, based on geomorphic and ecological indicators. Seed bank composition within the channel and floodplain (determined in a seedling emergence study) was compared to standing vegetation. Seed bank potential for supporting geomorphic recovery was assessed by measuring native species richness, and the abundance of different plant growth forms, with consideration of the roles played by different growth forms in geomorphic adjustment. The exotic seed bank was considered a limiting factor for achieving ecological restoration goals, and similarly analysed. Seed bank native species richness was comparable between the reaches, and regardless of condition, early successional and pioneer herbs, sedges, grasses and rushes dominated the seed bank. The capacity for these growth forms to colonise and stabilise non-cohesive sediments and initiate biogeomorphic succession, indicates high potential for the seed banks of even highly degraded reaches to contribute to geomorphic river recovery. However, exotic propagules increasingly dominated the seed banks of moderate and poor condition reaches and reflected increasing encroachment by terrestrial exotic vegetation associated with riparian degradation. As the degree of riparian degradation increases, the resources required to control the regeneration of exotic species will similarly increase, if seed bank-based regeneration is to contribute to both geomorphic and ecological restoration goals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Reaction of the Lithuanian alfalfa breeding populations to Phoma medicaginis under cool temperate climate conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liatukiene, A.; Liatukas, Z.; Ruzgas, V.

    2015-01-01

    The alfalfa Phoma medicaginis resistance was evaluated on 100 accessions with different development date. Weather conditions favoured high disease pressure and differentiation of tested accessions was not clear in 2011. Accessions were compared by maximal disease severity (DS) and area under disease progress curve (AUDPC). DS ranged from 10 to 60% and AUDPC value ranged 119-727 in 2009. DS and AUDPC values were higher in 2010 and 2011, DS ranged 40-65 and 66-68% and AUDPC ranged 2263-2928 and 2853-3006. Development date of accessions showed low impact on resistance. The correlations between DS and AUDPC results of accessions across years highly varied (r=0.189 - 0.828) due to low differentiation of accessions resistance. Selection of alfalfa material promising by Phoma medicaginis resistance should be done under conditions moderately favourable for development of this disease. (author)

  10. Effects of lateral boundary condition resolution and update frequency on regional climate model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pankatz, Klaus; Kerkweg, Astrid

    2015-04-01

    The work presented is part of the joint project "DecReg" ("Regional decadal predictability") which is in turn part of the project "MiKlip" ("Decadal predictions"), an effort funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to improve decadal predictions on a global and regional scale. In MiKlip, one big question is if regional climate modeling shows "added value", i.e. to evaluate, if regional climate models (RCM) produce better results than the driving models. However, the scope of this study is to look more closely at the setup specific details of regional climate modeling. As regional models only simulate a small domain, they have to inherit information about the state of the atmosphere at their lateral boundaries from external data sets. There are many unresolved questions concerning the setup of lateral boundary conditions (LBC). External data sets come from global models or from global reanalysis data-sets. A temporal resolution of six hours is common for this kind of data. This is mainly due to the fact, that storage space is a limiting factor, especially for climate simulations. However, theoretically, the coupling frequency could be as high as the time step of the driving model. Meanwhile, it is unclear if a more frequent update of the LBCs has a significant effect on the climate in the domain of the RCM. The first study examines how the RCM reacts to a higher update frequency. The study is based on a 30 year time slice experiment for three update frequencies of the LBC, namely six hours, one hour and six minutes. The evaluation of means, standard deviations and statistics of the climate in the regional domain shows only small deviations, some statistically significant though, of 2m temperature, sea level pressure and precipitation. The second part of the first study assesses parameters linked to cyclone activity, which is affected by the LBC update frequency. Differences in track density and strength are found when comparing the simulations

  11. Dynamic data analysis of climate and recharge conditions over time in the Edwards Aquifer, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, S. A.; Collins, J.; Banner, J.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the temporal patterns in datasets related to climate, recharge, and water resource conditions is important for informing water management and policy decisions. Data analysis and pipelines for evaluating these disparate sources of information are challenging to set up and rely on emerging informatics tools to complete. This project gathers data from both historical and recent sources for the Edwards Aquifer of central Texas. The Edwards faces a unique array of challenges, as it is composed of karst limestone, is susceptible to contaminants and climate change, and is expected to supply water for a rapidly growing population. Given these challenges, new approaches to integrating data will be particularly important. Case study data from the Edwards is used to evaluate aquifer and hydrologic system conditions over time as well as to discover patterns and possible relationships across the information sources. Prior research that evaluated trends in discharge and recharge of the aquifer is revisited by considering new data from 1992-2015, and the sustainability of the Edwards as a water resource within the more recent time period is addressed. Reusable and shareable analytical data pipelines are constructed using Jupyter Notebooks and Python libraries, and an interactive visualization is implemented with the information. In addition to the data sources that are utilized for the water balance analyses, the Global Surface Water Monitoring System from the University of Minnesota, a tool that integrates a wide number of satellite datasets with known surface water dynamics and machine learning, is used to evaluate water body persistence and change over time at regional scales. Preliminary results indicate that surface water body over the Edwards with differing aerial extents are declining, excepting some dam-controlled lakes in the region. Other existing tools and machine learning applications are also considered. Results are useful to the Texas Water Research

  12. Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang Selsted, M

    2010-07-15

    Global change is a reality. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels are rising as well as mean global temperature and precipitation patterns are changing. These three environmental factors have separately and in combination effect on ecosystem processes. Terrestrial ecosystems hold large amounts of carbon, why understanding plant and soil responses to such changes are necessary, as ecosystems potentially can ameliorate or accelerate global change. To predict the feedback of ecosystems to the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations experiments imitating global change effects are therefore an important tool. This work on ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions, shows that extended summer drought in combination with elevated temperature will ensure permanent dryer soil conditions, which decreases carbon turnover, while elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations will increase carbon turnover. In the full future climate scenario, carbon turnover is over all expected to increase and the heathland to become a source of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. The methodology of static chamber CO{sub 2} flux measurements and applying the technology in a FACE (free air CO{sub 2} enrichment) facility is a challenge. Fluxes of CO{sub 2} from soil to atmosphere depend on a physical equilibrium between those two medias, why it is important to keep the CO{sub 2} gradient between soil and atmosphere unchanged during measurement. Uptake to plants via photosynthesis depends on a physiological process, which depends strongly on the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and the CO{sub 2} soil-atmosphere gradient. (author)

  13. Degradation and performance evaluation of PV module in desert climate conditions with estimate uncertainty in measuring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fezzani Amor

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance of photovoltaic (PV module is affected by outdoor conditions. Outdoor testing consists installing a module, and collecting electrical performance data and climatic data over a certain period of time. It can also include the study of long-term performance under real work conditions. Tests are operated in URAER located in desert region of Ghardaïa (Algeria characterized by high irradiation and temperature levels. The degradation of PV module with temperature and time exposure to sunlight contributes significantly to the final output from the module, as the output reduces each year. This paper presents a comparative study of different methods to evaluate the degradation of PV module after a long term exposure of more than 12 years in desert region and calculates uncertainties in measuring. Firstly, this evaluation uses three methods: Visual inspection, data given by Solmetric PVA-600 Analyzer translated at Standard Test Condition (STC and based on the investigation results of the translation equations as ICE 60891. Secondly, the degradation rates calculated for all methods. Finally, a comparison between a degradation rates given by Solmetric PVA-600 analyzer, calculated by simulation model and calculated by two methods (ICE 60891 procedures 1, 2. We achieved a detailed uncertainty study in order to improve the procedure and measurement instrument.

  14. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2017-10-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  15. Growing Season Conditions Mediate the Dependence of Aspen on Redistributed Snow Under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soderquist, B.; Kavanagh, K.; Link, T. E.; Seyfried, M. S.; Strand, E. K.

    2016-12-01

    Precipitation regimes in many semiarid ecosystems are becoming increasingly dominated by winter rainfall as a result of climate change. Across these regions, snowpack plays a vital role in the distribution and timing of soil moisture availability. Rising temperatures will result in a more uniform distribution of soil moisture, advanced spring phenology, and prolonged growing seasons. Productive and wide ranging tree species like aspen, Populus tremuloides, may experience increased vulnerability to drought and mortality resulting from both reduced snowpack and increased evaporative demand during the growing season. We simulated the net primary production (NPP) of aspen stands spanning the rain:snow transition zone in the Reynolds Creek Critical Zone Observatory (RCCZO) in southwest Idaho, USA. Within the RCCZO, the total amount of precipitation has remained unchanged over the past 50 years, however the percentage of the precipitation falling as snow has declined by approximately 4% per decade at mid-elevation sites. The biogeochemical process model Biome-BGC was used to simulate aspen NPP at three stands located directly below snowdrifts that provide melt water late into the spring. After adjusting precipitation inputs to account for the redistribution of snow, we assessed climate change impacts on future aspen productivity. Mid-century (2046-2065) aspen NPP was simulated using temperature projections from a multi-model average under high emission conditions using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) data set. While climate change simulations indicated over a 20% decrease in annual NPP for some years, NPP rates for other mid-century years remained relatively unchanged due to variations in growing season conditions. Mid-century years with the largest decreases in NPP typically showed increased spring transpiration rates resulting from earlier leaf flush combined with warmer spring conditions. During these years, the onset of drought stress occurred

  16. Effects of future climate conditions on streamflow dynamics in coastal southern California watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export of water is a central theme for the project. In this study, the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model is forced with past measurement-based (1950 to 2005) and future model-based (2006 to 2100) precipitation and temperature to estimate daily streamflow dynamics. The study region is roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The model-based forcings are downscaled to a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. The Priestley and Taylor method is used to estimate potential evapotranspiration based on the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites. The HRR model is calibrated for the period 1984 to 2013 using USGS streamflow. Median changes in downscaled precipitation projections from 10 models and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) combined with significance testing, suggest that the distribution of precipitation throughout the rainy season will change: decrease at the beginning of the rainy season (Oct-Dec), increase during peak season (Jan-Mar) and decrease at the end (Apr-Jun). Annually, results suggest a slight increase in precipitation. The decrease of rainfall in spring and fall and increase in winter will lead to a shorter (10-15 days, 8-14%), more intense wet season. Both the magnitude and frequency of large storms (>36 mm/day) are likely to increase. Following the precipitation patterns, streamflow in spring and fall is likely to decrease while winter streamflow and annual peak flows are likely to increase due to increased winter precipitation and

  17. Implications of Martian Phyllosilicate Formation Conditions to the Early Climate on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, J. L.; Baker, L.; Fairén, A. G.; Michalski, J. R.; Gago-Duport, L.; Velbel, M. A.; Gross, C.; Rampe, E. B.

    2017-12-01

    We propose that short-term warmer and wetter environments, occurring sporadically in a generally cold early Mars, enabled formation of phyllosilicate-rich outcrops on the surface of Mars without requiring long-term warm and wet conditions. We are investigating phyllosilicate formation mechanisms including CO2 and H2O budgets to provide constraints on the early martian climate. We have evaluated the nature and stratigraphy of phyllosilicate-bearing surface units on Mars based on i) phyllosilicate-forming environments on Earth, ii) phyllosilicate reactions in the lab, and iii) modeling experiments involving phyllosilicates and short-range ordered (SRO) materials. The type of phyllosilicates that form on Mars depends on temperature, water/rock ratio, acidity, salinity and available ions. Mg-rich trioctahedral smectite mixtures are more consistent with subsurface formation environments (crustal, hydrothermal or alkaline lakes) up to 400 °C and are not associated with martian surface environments. In contrast, clay profiles dominated by dioctahedral Al/Fe-smectites are typically formed in subaqueous or subaerial surface environments. We propose models describing formation of smectite-rich outcrops and laterally extensive vertical profiles of Fe/Mg-smectites, sulfates, and Al-rich clay assemblages formed in surface environments. Further, the presence of abundant SRO materials without phyllosilicates could mark the end of the last warm and wet episode on Mars supporting smectite formation. Climate Implications for Early Mars: Clay formation reactions proceed extremely slowly at cool temperatures. The thick smectite outcrops observed on Mars through remote sensing would require standing water on Mars for hundreds of millions of years if they formed in waters 10-15 °C. However, warmer temperatures could have enabled faster production of these smectite-rich beds. Sporadic warming episodes to 30-40 °C could have enabled formation of these smectites over only tens or

  18. Assessment of Environmental Flows under Human Intervention and Climate Change Conditions in a Mediterranean Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, M. T.; Alp, E.; Aras, M.; Özaltın, A. M.; Sarıcan, Y.; Afsar, M.; Bulut, B.; Ersoy, E. N.; Karasu, İ. G.; Onen, A.

    2017-12-01

    Allocation of the river flow for ecosystems is very critical for sustainable management of ecosystems containing aquatic habitats in need of more water than other environments. Availability and allocation of water over such locations becomes more stressed as a result of the influence of human interventions (e.g., increased water use for irrigation) and the expected change in climate. This study investigates the current and future (until 2100) low-flow requirements over 10 subcatchments in a Mediterranean Watershed, in Turkey, using Tennant and hydrological low-flow methods. The future river flows are estimated using HBV model forced by climate projections obtained by HADGEM2, MPI-ESM-MR, and CNRM-CM5.1 models coupled with RegCM4.3 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Critical flows (i.e., Q10, Q25, Q50) are calculated using the best fit to commonly used distributions for the river flow data, while the decision between the selection of Q10, Q25, Q50 critical levels are made depending on the level of human interference made over the catchment. Total three low-flow requirement estimations are obtained over each subcatchment using the Tennant (two estimates for the low and high flow seasons for environmentally good conditions) and the hydrological low-flow methods. The highest estimate among these three methods is selected as the low-flow requirement of the subcatchment. The river flows over these 10 subcatchments range between 197hm3 and 1534hm3 while the drainage areas changing between 936 and 4505 km2. The final low-flow estimation (i.e., the highest among the three estimate) for the current conditions range between 94 hm3 and 715 hm3. The low-flow projection values between 2075 and 2099 are on average 39% lower than the 2016 values, while the steepest decline is expected between 2050 and 2074. The low flow and high flow season Tennant estimates dropped 22-25% while the hydrological method low-flow estimates dropped 32% from 2016 to 2075-2099 average, where

  19. A 10-days heatwave around flowering superimposed on climate change conditions significantly affects production of 22 barley accessions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Lyngkjær, Michael F.; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

    2015-01-01

    Extreme climate events as heatwaves, floods and storms cause acute changes in season variability influencing primary production and are very likely to increase in magnitude and/or frequency (IPCC, AR5, WGI). In the present study 22 primarily Nordic barley accessions were grown in four basic clima...... climate change conditions on numerous accessions in order to select appropriate genotypes for breeding future cultivars that can secure the primary production....

  20. Multiple regression models for energy use in air-conditioned office buildings in different climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lam, Joseph C.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Liu Dalong; Tsang, C.L.

    2010-01-01

    An attempt was made to develop multiple regression models for office buildings in the five major climates in China - severe cold, cold, hot summer and cold winter, mild, and hot summer and warm winter. A total of 12 key building design variables were identified through parametric and sensitivity analysis, and considered as inputs in the regression models. The coefficient of determination R 2 varies from 0.89 in Harbin to 0.97 in Kunming, indicating that 89-97% of the variations in annual building energy use can be explained by the changes in the 12 parameters. A pseudo-random number generator based on three simple multiplicative congruential generators was employed to generate random designs for evaluation of the regression models. The difference between regression-predicted and DOE-simulated annual building energy use are largely within 10%. It is envisaged that the regression models developed can be used to estimate the likely energy savings/penalty during the initial design stage when different building schemes and design concepts are being considered.

  1. A method comparison of total and HMW adiponectin: HMW/total adiponectin ratio varies versus total adiponectin, independent of clinical condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Andel, Merel; Drent, Madeleine L; van Herwaarden, Antonius E; Ackermans, Mariëtte T; Heijboer, Annemieke C

    2017-02-01

    Total and high-molecular-weight (HMW) adiponectin have been associated with endocrine and cardiovascular pathology. As no gold standard is available, the discussion about biological relevance of isoforms is complicated. In our study we perform a method comparison between two commercially available assays measuring HMW and total adiponectin, in various patient groups, thus contributing further to this discussion. We determined levels of HMW and total adiponectin using assays by Lumipulse® and Millipore® respectively, in 126 patients with different clinical characteristics (n=29 healthy volunteers, n=22 dialysis patients, n=25 elderly with body mass index (BMI) LUMIPULSE ∗0.5-0.9=total adiponectin MILLIPORE , albeit with significant deviation from linearity (p<0.001). Pearson's correlation was R=0.987 (p=0.000). No significant differences between patient groups were observed (p=0.190). The HMW/total adiponectin ratio varies with total adiponectin concentration independent of clinical conditions studied. Our results imply that total and HMW adiponectin have similar utility when assessing adiponectin levels in blood, as the ratio is independent of clinical condition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Assessing the impacts of climate change in Mediterranean catchments under conditions of data scarcity - The Gaza case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gampe, David; Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. While there is scientific consensus that climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean regions are presently occurring and are projected to amplify in the future, very little knowledge is available about the quantification of these changes, which is hampered by a lack of suitable and cost effective hydrological monitoring and modeling systems. The European FP7-project CLIMB is aiming to analyze climate induced changes on the hydrology of the Mediterranean Basins by investigating seven test sites located in the countries Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Gaza and Egypt. CLIMB employs a combination of novel geophysical field monitoring concepts, remote sensing techniques and integrated hydrologic modeling to improve process descriptions and understanding and to quantify existing uncertainties in climate change impact analysis. One of those seven sites is the Gaza Strip, located in the Eastern Mediterranean and part of the Palestinian Autonomous Area, covers an area of 365km² with a length of 35km and 6 to 12km in width. Elevation ranges from sea level up to 104m in the East of the test site. Mean annual precipitation varies from 235mm in the South to 420mm in the North of the area. The inter annual variability of rainfall and the rapid population growth in an highly agricultural used area represent the major challenges in this area. The physically based Water Simulation Model WaSiM Vers. 2 (Schulla & Jasper (1999)) is setup to model current and projected future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as common to many Mediterranean catchments. The lack of available measured input data hampers the calibration of the model setup and the validation of model outputs. WaSiM was driven with meteorological forcing taken from 4

  3. Improving PAQ and comfort conditions in Spanish office buildings with passive climate control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orosa, Jose A.; Baalina, A. [Departamento de Energia y P.M. Escuela Tecnica Superior de N. y M, Universidade da Coruna, Paseo de Ronda 51, P.C.:15011 A Coruna (Spain)

    2009-03-15

    Some researchers have demonstrated that passive moisture transfer between indoor air and hygroscopic structures has the potential to moderate variations of indoor air relative humidity and, thus, to improve comfort and PAQ [Simonson CJ, Salonvaara M, Ojalen T. The effect of structures on indoor humidity-possibility to improve comfort and perceived air quality. Indoor Air 2002; 12: 243-51; Simonson CJ, Salonvaara M, Ojalen T. Improving indoor climate and comfort with wooden structures. Espoo 2001. Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT Publications 431.200p+app 91p]. The main objective of this study is to show the internal wall coating effect on indoor air conditions and, as a consequence of this, in comfort conditions and PAQ. In a previous paper [Orosa JA, Baalina A. Passive climate control in Spanish office buildings for long periods of time. Building and Environment 2008], we analysed the influence of permeable and impermeable materials on indoor air conditions, during the unoccupied period, in 25 office buildings in different seasons. Results obtained lead us to conclude that real coverings such as permeable, semi-permeable and impermeable types, present different behavioural patterns in indoor air conditions. Furthermore, we concluded that an absorbent structure will moderate relative humidity indoors. In this paper, we study this indoor relative humidity effect on local thermal discomfort, due to decreased respiratory cooling, and indoor ambience acceptability for the early hours of morning applying PD and Acc models [Toftum J, Jorgensen AS, Fanger PO. Upper limits for indoor air humidity to avoid uncomfortably humid skin. Energy and buildings 1998; 28: 1-13; Toftum J, Jorgensen AS, Fanger PO. Upper limits of air humidity for preventing warm respiratory discomfort. Energy and Buildings 1998; 28: 15-23] such as that proposed by Simonson et al. [The effect of structures on indoor humidity-possibility to improve comfort and perceived air quality. Indoor Air

  4. Effects of Varying RedoxConditions on Natural Attenuation of Inorganic Contaminants from the D-Area Coal Pile Runoff Basin (U)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaplan, D

    2004-05-30

    The objective of this study was to provide geochemical parameters to characterize the D-Area Coal Pile Runoff Basin (DCPRB) sediment as a potential source term. It is anticipated that the measured values will be used in risk calculations and will provide additional technical support for imposing Monitored Natural Attenuation at D-Area. This study provides a detailed evaluation of the DCPRB sediment and is part of another study that quantified the Monitored Natural Attenuation of inorganic contaminants more broadly at the D-Area Expanded Operable Unit, which includes the DCPRB (Powell et al. 2004). Distribution coefficients (K{sub d} values; a solid to liquid contaminant concentration ratio) and the Potentially Leachable Fraction (the percent of the total contaminant concentration in the sediment that can likely contribute to a contaminant plume) were measured in a DCPRB sediment as a function of redox conditions. Redox conditions at the DCPRB are expected to vary greatly as the system undergoes varying drying and flooding conditions. Conservative values; K{sub d} values that err on the side of being too low and Potentially Leachable Fraction values that err on the side of being too high, are presented. The K{sub d} values are high compared to conservative literature values, and underscores the importance of measuring site-specific values to provide estimates of sediments natural attenuation/sorption capacities. The Potentially Leachable Fraction indicates that as little as 27% of the As, but all of the Cu and Tl will be part of the source term. In the case of the As, the remaining 83% will likely never leach out of the sediment, thereby providing a form of natural attenuation. Importantly, Be, Cr, Cu, Ni, and V concentrations in the sediment were less-than twice background levels, indicating this sediment was not a potential source for these contaminants. K{sub d} values generally increased significantly (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Se, and Tl) when the sediment was

  5. Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Yin, X.; Zhu, Y.; Boote, K.; Adam, M.; Bregaglio, S.; Buis, S.; Confalonieri, R.; Fumoto, T.; Gaydon, D.; Marcaida III, M.; Nakagawa, H.; Oriol, P.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Singh, B.; Singh, U.; Tang, L.; Yoshida, H.; Zhang, Z.; Bouman, B.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We

  6. Habitat compression and expansion of sea urchins in response to changing climate conditions on the California continental shelf and slope (1994-2013)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Kirk N.; Levin, Lisa A.; Schiff, Kenneth

    2017-03-01

    Echinoid sea urchins with distributions along the continental shelf and slope of the eastern Pacific often dominate the megafauna community. This occurs despite their exposure to naturally low dissolved oxygen (DO) waters (calcium carbonate (ΩCaCO3<1). Here we present vertical depth distribution and density analyses of historical otter trawl data collected in the Southern California Bight (SCB) from 1994 to 2013 to address the question: Do changes in echinoid density and species' depth distributions along the continental margin in the SCB reflect observed secular or interannual changes in climate? Deep-dwelling burrowing urchins (Brissopsis pacifica, Brisaster spp. and Spatangus californicus), which are adapted to low-DO, low-pH conditions appeared to have expanded their vertical distributions and populations upslope over the past decade (2003-2013), and densities of the deep pink urchin, Strongylocentrotus fragilis, increased significantly in the upper 500 m of the SCB. Conversely, the shallower urchin, Lytechinus pictus, exhibited depth shoaling and density decreases within the upper 200 m of the SCB from 1994 to 2013. Oxygen and pH in the SCB also vary inter-annually due to varying strengths of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Changes in depth distributions and densities were correlated with bi-monthly ENSO climate indices in the region. Our results suggest that both a secular trend in ocean deoxygenation and acidification and varying strength of ENSO may be linked to echinoid species distributions and densities, creating habitat compression in some and habitat expansion in others. Potential life-history mechanisms underlying depth and density changes observed over these time periods include migration, mortality, and recruitment. These types of analyses are needed for a broad suite of benthic species in order to identify and manage climate-sensitive species on the margin.

  7. Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaac, Morna; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000-2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO 2 emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO 2 emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change

  8. Topsoil moisture mapping using geostatistical techniques under different Mediterranean climatic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Murillo, J F; Hueso-González, P; Ruiz-Sinoga, J D

    2017-10-01

    Soil mapping has been considered as an important factor in the widening of Soil Science and giving response to many different environmental questions. Geostatistical techniques, through kriging and co-kriging techniques, have made possible to improve the understanding of eco-geomorphologic variables, e.g., soil moisture. This study is focused on mapping of topsoil moisture using geostatistical techniques under different Mediterranean climatic conditions (humid, dry and semiarid) in three small watersheds and considering topography and soil properties as key factors. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with a resolution of 1×1m was derived from a topographical survey as well as soils were sampled to analyzed soil properties controlling topsoil moisture, which was measured during 4-years. Afterwards, some topography attributes were derived from the DEM, the soil properties analyzed in laboratory, and the topsoil moisture was modeled for the entire watersheds applying three geostatistical techniques: i) ordinary kriging; ii) co-kriging considering as co-variate topography attributes; and iii) co-kriging ta considering as co-variates topography attributes and gravel content. The results indicated topsoil moisture was more accurately mapped in the dry and semiarid watersheds when co-kriging procedure was performed. The study is a contribution to improve the efficiency and accuracy of studies about the Mediterranean eco-geomorphologic system and soil hydrology in field conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Climatic conditions as a risk factor in canine gastric dilatation-volvulus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennler, R; Koch, D; Hassig, M; Howard, J; Montavon, P M

    2005-01-01

    Canine acute gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition of multifactorial origin. The risk of developing GDV is influenced by a variety of factors, including breed, age, gender, temperament, diet and management. A relationship between seasonal variations and the frequency of GDV has been previously documented although no association was found with any specific climatic event. Variables in weather conditions within a defined geographic region were investigated in a retrospective study of 287 client-owned dogs diagnosed with GDV between 1992 and 1999. Monthly incidences were evaluated and differences in atmospheric temperature, humidity and pressure between days in which GDV cases were observed and days in which no case was presented were examined. Although temperature was significantly associated with the occurrence of GDV, the difference in temperatures between days with and days without GDV cases was so small that it is unlikely to be of clinical relevance. Moreover, no significant association was found between GDV occurrence and atmospheric pressure or humidity, and a seasonal variation in GDV incidence was not observed.

  10. Analyses of phase change materials’ efficiency in warm-summer humid continental climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratnieks, J.; Gendelis, S.; Jakovics, A.; Bajare, D.

    2017-10-01

    The usage of phase change materials (PCMs) is a way to store excess energy produced during the hot time of the day and release it during the night thereby reducing the overheating problem. While, in Latvian climate conditions overheating is not a big issue in traditional buildings since it happens only a couple of weeks per year air conditioners must still be installed to maintain thermal comfort. The need for cooling in recently built office buildings with large window area can increase significantly. It is therefore of great interest if the thermal comfort conditions can be maintained by PCMs alone or with reduced maximum power of installed cooling systems. Our initial studies show that if the test building is well-insulated (necessary to reduce heat loss in winter), phase change material is not able to solidify fast enough during the relatively short night time. To further investigate the problem various experimental setups with two different phase change materials were installed in test buildings. Experimental results are compared with numerical modelling made in software COMSOL Multiphysics. The effectiveness of PCM using different situations is widely analysed.

  11. Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.

    2008-12-01

    Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from

  12. Combined installation of electric and heat supply for climatic conditions of Iraq

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaisi, Osama Al; Sidenkov, D. V.

    2017-11-01

    Electricity, heating and cooling are the three main components that make up the energy consumption base in residential, commercial and public buildings around the world. Demand for energy and fuel costs are constantly growing. Combined cooling, heating and power generation or trigeneration can be a promising solution to such a problem, providing an efficient, reliable, flexible, competitive and less harmful alternative to existing heat and cold supply systems. In this paper, scheme of the tri-generation plant on non-aqueous working substances is considered as an installation of a locally centralized electro-heat and cold supply of a typical residential house in a hot climate. The scheme of the combined installation of electro-heat (cold) supply consisted of the vapor power plant and heat pump system on low-boiling working substance for local consumers under the climatic conditions of Iraq is presented. The possibility of using different working substances in the thermodynamic cycles of these units, which will provide better efficiency of such tri-generation systems is shown. The calculations of steam turbine cycles and heat pump part on the selected working substances are conducted. It is proposed to use heat exchangers of plate type as the main exchangers in the combined processing. The developed method of thermal-hydraulic calculation of heat exchangers implemented in MathCad, which allows to evaluate the efficiency of plants of this type using the ε - NTU method. For the selected working substances of the steam part the optimal temperature of heat supply to the steam generator is determined. The results of thermodynamic and technical-economic analysis of the application of various working substances in the “organic” Rankine cycle of the steam turbine unit and the heat pump system of the heat and cold supply system are presented.

  13. Nitrous oxide emissions from manure handling - effects of storage conditions and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sommer, S.G.; Petersen, S.O.

    2002-01-01

    Stored animal manure and manure applied in the field contributes an estimated 20% to the total anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 0) in Denmark. Manure composition, handling and climatic conditions may all influence the emission level during storage, but there are relatively few experimental data on emissions of N 2 0 from manure management, including animal houses, slurry stores and manure heaps. Among animal housing systems, very high emission rates have been found with pig deep lifter, and N 2 0 emissions are further stimulated by mechanical mixing. Slurry stores are anaerobic, but a recent study showed that N 2 0 can be produced in porous surface covers such as natural surface crusts, straw or leca pebbles, while no N 2 0 was emitted from uncovered slurry. The emission was significantly related to the water balance, i.e., the difference between evaporation and rain, during dry periods; during wet periods no N 2 0 was emitted. For solid manure, previous studies have typically found that less than 1 % of total N is emitted as N 2 0. Nitrous oxide may be produced throughout the manure heap, provided an environment with both aerobic and anaerobic pockets exists. Profiles from an experimental heap indicated that most of the N 2 0 emitted from solid manure was produced near the surface of the heap. Increasing density appears to stimulate N 2 0 emissions up to a point, where the air exchange is significantly impeded. The IPCC methodology calculates N 2 0 emissions from manure on the basis of total N content (that is, on the basis of volume) and climate region only. Possibly, estimates of N 2 0 emissions from slurry stores could be improved by considering surface area, ammonium content and water balance as input variables. Emissions from solid manure heaps should consider surface area and the potential for composting, as reflected in bulk density and moisture content. (au)

  14. Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord

    2016-03-01

    One feature of climate change is the increasing heat exposure in many workplaces where efficient cooling systems cannot be applied. Excessive heat exposure is a particular problem for working people because of the internal heat production when muscle work is carried out. The physiological basis for severe heat stroke, other clinical effects, and heat exhaustion is well known. One feature of this health effect of excessive workplace heat exposure is reduced work capacity, and new research has started to quantify this effect in the context of climate change. Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many working people is affected. The Hothaps-Soft database and software andClimateCHIP.orgwebsite make it possible to rapidly produce estimates of local heat conditions and trends. The results can be mapped to depict the spatial distribution of workplace heat stress. In South-East Asia as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs, and this may double by 2050 as global climate change progresses. By combining heat exposure data and estimates of the economic consequences, the vulnerability of many low- and middle-income countries is evident. The annual cost of reduced labor productivity at country level already in 2030 can be several percent of GDP, which means billions of US dollars even for medium-size countries. The results provide new arguments for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and preventive actions in all countries. © 2015 APJPH.

  15. Impact of NaCl Contamination and Climatic Conditions on the Reliability of Printed Circuit Board Assemblies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Verdingovas, Vadimas; Jellesen, Morten Stendahl; Ambat, Rajan

    2014-01-01

    The effect of climatic conditions and ionic contamination on the reliability of printed circuit board assembly has been investigated in terms of leakage current (LC) and electrochemical migration susceptibility. The change in LC as a function of relative humidity (RH) and temperature was measured...... and 15 $^{\\circ}\\hbox{C}$ –65 $^{\\circ}\\hbox{C}$. The variation of RH at the surface of the test specimens was imposed by 1) increasing the RH of the surrounding air and 2) reducing the temperature of the printed circuit boards using a cooling stage, while maintaining a constant climatic condition...

  16. Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system.

  17. Environmental Change: Precipitation and N, P, K, mg Fertilization Influences on Crop Yield Under Temperate Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    László Phd, Dd. M.

    2009-04-01

    drought or to much rainfall did not cause significant differences on rye yield without fertilisation (average year: 1.66 t ha-1, drought year: 1.51 t ha-1, over rainfall year: 1.47 t ha-1). c. Yields varied from 2.01 to 3.04 t ha-1 under low (N: 30 kg ha-1 and NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg combinations) fertilisation input. Yields were decreased by 14% and 10% by drought and also by excess of rainfall. d. At mean fertilisation (N: 60 kg ha-1 and NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg combinations) level the maximum yield had reached 3.6 t ha-1 in average year. In years with excess rainfall, rye yields decreased as an average of fertilisation treatments by 20%. e. By an average year, at satisfactory fertilisation (N: 90 kg ha-1 and NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg combinations) level the maximum yield reached 3.8 t ha-1. But these yields were decreased with 17% and with 52% by drought and excess rainfall weather conditions respects. Negative effects (drought, excess rainfall) were diminished with 20-25% on the Mg treatments. f. Correlations between rye yields and the sums of precipitations during vegetation period (control: R = 0.99***, N: R = 0.84***, NP: R = 0.84***, NK: R = 0.91***, NPK: R = 0.85***, NPKMg: R = 0.65**) showed that optimum yields will develop in 430-470 mm range. Under and above these range of rainfall yields will decrease. Climate-rainfall-change and mineral fertilisation effects on potato yield a. Trial years (1963, 1965, 1967, 1969, 1971) were characterised by recurrent extremes of climate under vegetation seasons of potato. Three period had average rainfall, while two were very dry. b. All in all, droughts in the winter or summer half-year had much the same effect on yields. Precipitation deficiency in the winter could not be counterbalanced by average rainfall during the vegetation period, and its effect on the yield was similar to that of summer drought. c. Yield and quality were influenced by rainfall to a greater extent than by fertilisation. d. In vegetation periods poor in rainfall yield

  18. Integrated analysis of present and future responses of precipitation over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2016-03-01

    The assessment of future precipitation variations prevailing in an area is essential for the research regarding climate and climate change. The current paper focuses on 3 selected areas in Greece that present different climatic characteristics due to their location and aims to assess and compare the future variation of annual and seasonal precipitation. Future precipitation data from the ENSEMBLES anthropogenic climate-change (ACC) global simulations and the Climate version of the Local Model (CLM) were obtained and analyzed. The climate simulations were performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under the A1B and B1 scenarios. Mann-Kendall test was applied to investigate possible trends. Spatial distribution of precipitation was performed using a combination of dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques and Kriging method within ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for both scenarios, reference periods and study areas, precipitation is expected to be critically decreased. Additionally, Mann-Kendall test application showed a strong downward trend for every study area. Furthermore, the decrease in precipitation for the Ardas River basin characterized by the continental climate will be tempered, while in the Sperchios River basin it will be smoother due to the influence of some minor climatic variations in the basins' springs in the highlands where milder conditions occur. Precipitation decrease in the Geropotamos River basin which is characterized by Mediterranean climate will be more vigorous. B1 scenario appeared more optimistic for the Ardas and Sperchios River basins, while in the Geropotamos River basin, both applied scenarios brought similar results, in terms of future precipitation response.

  19. Climate Change and water resources: Scenarios of low-flow conditions in the Upper Danube River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mauser, W; Marke, T; Stoeber, S

    2008-01-01

    Global Climate Change will have regional impacts on the water resources and will force water resources managers and farmers to adapt. Both low-flow and its duration are critical hydrological parameters, which strongly influence the state of aquatic ecosystems as well as power production, reservoir management and industry. Impacts of future climate change is analysed using scenarios for the change of meteorological drivers and regional hydrological simulation models. The project GLOWA-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de) develops integrative modelling techniques combining process knowledge from both natural and social sciences to examine the sustainability of regional water systems as well as water management alternatives in the Upper Danube watershed (A = 77000 km 2 ). Special emphasis is given to changes in low-flow condition. DANUBIA describes the regional water cycle both physical and spatially distributed. It consists of a collection of tightly coupled models, which strictly preserve energy and matter and are not calibrated to maximise their overall predictive abilities. The paper demonstrates that DANUBIA can reproduce the daily discharge for the time period from 1971-2003 with a Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient of 0.84 (gauge Achleiten). Based on a statistical climate simulator 12 realisations of the IPCC A1B climate scenario were used to investigate impacts of climate change during the simulation period of 2011-2060. The change in discharge and frequency of occurrences of low-flow in the watershed for the scenario ensemble were analysed for the outlet gauge. The analysis shows that strong changes were simulated in the frequency of occurrences of low-flow conditions. The changing climate gradually reduces a 50-years NM7Q discharge of today to less than half of its discharge in the year 2060. These results clearly indicate that the expected climate change will strongly alter the low-flow conditions in the Upper Danube watershed.

  20. Conservadorismo condicional: estudo a partir de variáveis econômicas Conditional conservatism: a study based on economic variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael de Lacerda Moreira

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A Contabilidade, na perspectiva da abordagem da informação, volta-se à utilidade da informação. O Conservadorismo Condicional está ligado à tendência de a Contabilidade exigir um maior grau de verificação das boas notícias para reconhecê-las no resultado em relação ao grau de verificação das más notícias. Em face das preocupações referentes à qualidade da informação contábil, o objetivo deste artigo consiste em analisar o reflexo do Conservadorismo Condicional no resultado contábil a partir de variáveis econômicas. O estudo utiliza o Modelo Reverso de Lucros Associados a Retornos (BASU, 1997 e o modelo proposto por Kahn e Watts (2009, que analisam a relação entre as variáveis lucro contábil e retorno econômico, utilizando os valores dos retornos positivos e negativos como proxy de boas e más notícias, e outras variáveis largamente aceitas na avaliação do conservadorismo. Para tanto, foram estimados os modelos estatísticos para uma amostra de 96 empresas para o período de 2005 a 2007 partindo de informações anuais disponíveis no Economática® e dados reportados em notas explicativas. Com o objetivo de selecionar um evento econômico que pode impactar no reconhecimento assimétrico do resultado econômico, decidiu-se comparar os resultados entre empresas listadas nos níveis de governança da Bovespa com as demais empresas. Os resultados obtidos confirmam a hipótese de utilização de conservadorismo condicional na mensuração do resultado das companhias da amostra. A diferenciação positiva quanto ao grau de conservadorismo para as empresas que aderiram aos níveis de governança não são conclusivas, visto que os modelos apresentaram resultados dispersos. As variáveis econômicas criam vantagens quando as más notícias não podem ser tão claramente visíveis nas Demonstrações Contábeis, podendo diminuir os resultados futuros esperados.Accounting from an information perspective looks at the

  1. Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Perez, Edmundo

    : climate change, elasticity of substitution between renewable and fossil energy and three different sources of technological uncertainty (i.e. R&D returns, innovation propensity and technological transferability). The performance of eight different GCF and non-GCF based policy regimes is evaluated in light of various end-of-century climate policy targets. Then I combine traditional scenario discovery data mining methods (Bryant and Lempert, 2010) with high dimensional stacking methods (Suzuki, Stem and Manzocchi, 2015; Taylor et al., 2006; LeBlanc, Ward and Wittels, 1990) to quantitatively characterize the conditions under which it is possible to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions and keep temperature rise below 2°C before the end of the century. Finally, I describe a method by which it is possible to combine the results of scenario discovery with high-dimensional stacking to construct a dynamic architecture of low cost technological cooperation. This dynamic architecture consists of adaptive pathways (Kwakkel, Haasnoot and Walker, 2014; Haasnoot et al., 2013) which begin with carbon taxation across both regions as a critical near term action. Then in subsequent phases different forms of cooperation are triggered depending on the unfolding climate and technological conditions. I show that there is no single policy regime that dominates over the entire uncertainty space. Instead I find that it is possible to combine these different architectures into a dynamic framework for technological cooperation across regions that can be adapted to unfolding climate and technological conditions which can lead to a greater rate of success and to lower costs in meeting the end-of-century climate change objectives agreed at the 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties. Keywords: international technological change, emerging nations, climate change, technological uncertainties, Green Climate Fund.

  2. Large Scale Skill in Regional Climate Modeling and the Lateral Boundary Condition Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veljović, K.; Rajković, B.; Mesinger, F.

    2009-04-01

    Several points are made concerning the somewhat controversial issue of regional climate modeling: should a regional climate model (RCM) be expected to maintain the large scale skill of the driver global model that is supplying its lateral boundary condition (LBC)? Given that this is normally desired, is it able to do so without help via the fairly popular large scale nudging? Specifically, without such nudging, will the RCM kinetic energy necessarily decrease with time compared to that of the driver model or analysis data as suggested by a study using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)? Finally, can the lateral boundary condition scheme make a difference: is the almost universally used but somewhat costly relaxation scheme necessary for a desirable RCM performance? Experiments are made to explore these questions running the Eta model in two versions differing in the lateral boundary scheme used. One of these schemes is the traditional relaxation scheme, and the other the Eta model scheme in which information is used at the outermost boundary only, and not all variables are prescribed at the outflow boundary. Forecast lateral boundary conditions are used, and results are verified against the analyses. Thus, skill of the two RCM forecasts can be and is compared not only against each other but also against that of the driver global forecast. A novel verification method is used in the manner of customary precipitation verification in that forecast spatial wind speed distribution is verified against analyses by calculating bias adjusted equitable threat scores and bias scores for wind speeds greater than chosen wind speed thresholds. In this way, focusing on a high wind speed value in the upper troposphere, verification of large scale features we suggest can be done in a manner that may be more physically meaningful than verifications via spectral decomposition that are a standard RCM verification method. The results we have at this point are somewhat

  3. Isotopic evidence for climatic conditions in Southeast Asia at the last glacial maximum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aggarwal, P.K.; Gibson, J.J.; Kulkarni, K.M.; Froehlich, K.

    2002-01-01

    Stable isotope composition of dated groundwater archives from the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Bangladesh trace changes in monsoon conditions, primarily rainout processes between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and present day in southeast Asia. Today, isotope-climate relations are well established by the IAEA/WMO Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation survey which reveals more depleted δ 18 O and δ 2 H for the Pacific Ocean monsoon regime than for the Indian Ocean monsoon regime, primarily due to proximal ocean sources and subdued continental moisture recycling for the latter region. Groundwater archives, reflecting past isotopic composition of precipitation, strongly suggest that this distinction was preserved or slightly enhanced at the time of the LGM, despite an apparent weakening of the summer monsoon and associated rainout processes. Overall, precipitation and moisture recycling, and enhanced continental effects are inferred to be the primary controls on δ 18 O signals in groundwater in southeast Asia. Comparison of groundwater isotope signatures and an ECHAM4 model simulation of the isotopic distribution in precipitation at 21ka reveal similar patterns, but the impacts of increased air mass contributions from high latitudes and reduced Eurasian moisture recycling at the LGM are shown to be potentially greater for the Pacific region than predicted by the model. (author)

  4. Alpha-amylase activity in wheat flour and breadmaking properties in relation to different climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakita Slađana M.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present paper was to evaluate the influence of different climatic conditions on the activity of alpha-amylase in wheat samples and bread quality parameters. Three wheat varieties grown in three different localities in three years were chosen for this study. Commonly used methods for estimation of alpha-amylase activity in wheat grain were employed. The obtained results indicated that harvest year 2013, which was characterized with the excessive amount of rainfall, exhibited the highest level of alpha-amylase activity and the lowest values of the peak viscosity. The lowest alpha-amylase level and the highest peak viscosity and FN value were observed for samples harvested in 2012 which was characterized with the greatest number of days with an average daily temperature above 30 and 35°C. In addition, a decrease in Mixolab parameter torque C3 and specific bread loaf volume, as well as increase in the breakdown torque (C3-C4 of samples harvested in 2013 were observed, which could be attributed to rainy weather influencing increase in alpha-amylase activity. It is found that specific bread loaf volume of wheat samples is highest in 2012. Moreover, a negative correlation between alpha-amylase activity and specific bread volume for all the samples grown in three years was determined.

  5. Nitrogen effects on growth and development of sunflower hybrids under agro-climatic conditions of malonate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasim, W.; Ahmad, A.; Wajid, A.; Muhammad, D.

    2011-01-01

    The effect of nitrogen (N) on growth, development, yield and yield components of different sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) hybrids was evaluated under agro-climatic conditions of Multan during spring 2008 and 2009. The experiment was laid out in a randomized complete block design with split plot arrangement having three replications, keeping cultivars in the main plots and N levels in the subplots. The net plot size was 4.2 m x 5 m. The results showed that, with increasing N rates, there was increment in the biomass, yield and yield components while the oil contents were adversely affected. However, there was high seed yield in 2008 as compared to 2009. Among sunflower hybrids, Hysun-38 gave more yield as compared to other sunflower hybrids (Hysun-33, Pioneer 64A93), while in case of N levels, 180 kg ha/sup -1/ provided higher yield than other N rates (0, 60, 120, 240 kg ha/sup -1/) in both years of study especially during 2008. (author)

  6. Wheat breadmaking properties in dependance on wheat enzymes status and climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomić, Jelena; Torbica, Aleksandra; Popović, Ljiljana; Hristov, Nikola; Nikolovski, Branislava

    2016-05-15

    The objective of this study was to evaluate albumins profile, proteolytic and amylolytic activity level and baking performance of wheat varieties grown in two production years with different climate conditions (2011 and 2012) in four locations. The results of ANOVA showed that variety, location, production year, and their interactions all had significant effects on all tested wheat quality parameters. The enzymatic activity and specific bread volume were mainly influenced by the variety. The samples from 2012 production year, had the lower values of albumin content, proteolytic and amylolytic activity, and bread specific volume. The correlation analysis, performed for 2011 production year, showed that albumin fraction (15-30 kDa) and proteolytic activity were negatively correlated with bread specific volume indicating the role of this fraction on lowering the crucial bread quality parameter. In 2012 production year, albumin fractions (5-15 kDa; 50-65 kDa) showed the most correlations, especially with parameters of bread quality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Energy-Efficient Supermarket Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning in Humid Climates in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Supermarkets are energy-intensive buildings that consume the greatest amount of electricity per square foot of building of any building type in the United States and represent 5% of total U.S. commercial building primary energy use (EIA 2005). Refrigeration and heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems are responsible for a large proportion of supermarkets’ total energy use. These two systems sometimes work together and sometimes compete, but the performance of one system always affects the performance of the other. To better understand these challenges and opportunities, the Commercial Buildings team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory investigated several of the most promising strategies for providing energy-efficient HVAC for supermarkets and quantified the resulting energy use and costs using detailed simulations. This research effort was conducted on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Commercial Building Partnerships (CBP) (Baechler et al. 2012; Parrish et al. 2013; Antonopoulos et al. 2014; Hirsch et al. 2014). The goal of CBP was to reduce energy use in the commercial building sector by creating, testing, and validating design concepts on the pathway to net zero energy commercial buildings. Several CBP partners owned or operated buildings containing supermarkets and were interested in optimizing the energy efficiency of supermarket HVAC systems in hot-humid climates. These partners included Walmart, Target, Whole Foods Market, SUPERVALU, and the Defense Commissary Agency.

  8. Composition of Myrtus communis L. Essential Oils as Affected by Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Pereira

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Myrtus Communis L. (Myrtaceae family, commonly known as myrtle, possesses a set of qualities that make it very interesting for the pharmaceutical, nutraceutical and cosmetic industries. In this work, myrtle was studied over a period of three years (2006-2008, encompassing the main stages of the development cycle of the plant. The influence of climatic conditions, such as temperature and rainfall, on the chemical composition and yield of the essential oils obtained from leaves and berries was studied. The leaves and berries essential oils were obtained by Clevenger distillation and analysed by GC and GC-MS. The results show that the major components were limonene+1,8-cineole, myrtenyl acetate, α-pinene and linalool. Over the three year period of study, a decrease in the composition of the most volatile compounds (α-pinene and limonene+1,8-cineole was observed, the reverse being found for linalool and myrtenyl acetate. The highest value for the yield of the leaves’ essential oils was observed in the third year (0.64%, w/w, whereas that same year the lowest yield (0.07%, w/w of fruit was observed. These results were likely due to an atypically high record for rainfall in April and May of that year. The highest value of the berry essential oils (0.14%, w/w was obtained in the second year.

  9. Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Quilbé

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Watershed runoff is closely related to land use but this influence is difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River watershed (Québec, Canada and had two objectives: (i to quantify the influence of historical agricultural land use evolution on watershed runoff; and (ii to assess the effect of future land use evolution scenarios under climate change conditions (CC. To achieve this, we used the integrated modeling system GIBSI. Past land use evolution was constructed using satellite images that were integrated into GIBSI. The general trend was an increase of agricultural land in the 80's, a slight decrease in the beginning of the 90's and a steady state over the last ten years. Simulations showed strong correlations between land use evolution and water discharge at the watershed outlet. For the prospective approach, we first assessed the effect of CC and then defined two opposite land use evolution scenarios for the horizon 2025 based on two different trends: agriculture intensification and sustainable development. Simulations led to a wide range of results depending on the climatologic models and gas emission scenarios considered, varying from a decrease to an increase of annual and monthly water discharge. In this context, the two land use scenarios induced opposite effects on water discharge and low flow sequences, especially during the growing season. However, due to the large uncertainty linked to CC simulations, it is difficult to conclude that one land use scenario provides a better adaptation to CC than another. Nevertheless, this study shows that land use is a key factor that has to be taken into account when predicting potential future hydrological responses of a watershed.

  10. Effect of Shading on Physiological, Biochemical and Behaviour Changes in Crossbred Calves Under Hot Climatic Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teama, F.E.I.; Gad, A.E.; El-Tarabany, A.A.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the importance and the effect of shading and non-shading house on physiological changes, body weight (BW), average daily gain (ADG), total antioxidant and thyroid hormones in crossbred calves under hot conditions. Thirty six growing crossbred calves (Friesian x Baladi) aged 8-10 months were divided into two groups (each 18 calves); the first group was maintained in shaded house and the second in house without shade (climatic house). The period of study was 79 days during hot conditions. Performance variables (BW, ADG) were measured and the blood samples were collected to assess some biochemical parameters including antioxidants such as total antioxidant (TA), catalase (CAT), total protein, thyroid hormones (T3, T4) and immunoglobulin factor (IgG). Respiration rates and behaviour parameters (feeding, drinking, standing, lying and agonistic) were also measured during the study. The data indicated that the shaded calves had higher ADG (P<0.05) and final BW than non-shaded ones. Also, a significant improvement in total protein levels and globulins were recorded in shaded house calves as compared to non-shaded ones. The same result was obtained for T3 level whereas non-significant changes were observed for T4 level as well as the level of IgG at different times. The present data indicated that using shaded house will decrease the effect of heat stress on calves which will increase the animal performance through improving BW and ADG as well as some biochemical parameters in addition to T3 hormonal level.

  11. White willow sexual regeneration capacity under estuarine conditions in times of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus-Michalczyk, Heike; Hanelt, Dieter; Denstorf, Julian; Jensen, Kai

    2016-10-01

    Tidal wetlands provide both habitats for coastal populations and wildlife, and ecosystem services for human welfare. Building with nature regarding cost-effective coastal protection is of increasing interest. Much research has been carried out on plant reproduction capacities in mangroves and salt marshes, but less is known on this issue in tidal freshwater wetlands. Willows are being successfully used for bank stabilization in riverine habitats, however, today white willow softwood forests in tidal wetlands are highly fragmented, and restoration is required e.g. by the European Habitats Directive. Recently, tolerance to increasing salinity and tidal flooding was found for vegetative propagules of floodplain willows. However, the establishment of autochthonous sexual recruits is necessary to conserve the genetic diversity of local populations, and thus may be preferable in restoration. The germination and early seedling establishment of Salix alba (white willow) was experimentally studied under simulated estuarine conditions. The species tolerance to increasing salinity (0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2) was tested in a climate chamber, and its tolerance to flooding at different tidal treatments (control, spring tide, daily tide 15 min and 2 h flooding) in the greenhouse. Germination was neither affected by increasing salinity nor by tidal flooding. Salix seedlings established up to salinity 1.5, but cotyledon performance and radicle growth was largely reduced at salinity 2. Under tidal flooding, seedling growth was similar in all treatments. However, in the treatments with daily tides seedling anchorage in the substrate took more than two weeks, and fewer seedlings reached a suitable length to approach the high water line. We assess S. alba sexual regeneration under estuarine conditions as generally possible. Further studies are needed on the effects of sedimentation-erosion processes on willow establishment in the field, especially on feedbacks between Salix survival and

  12. Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

    2017-01-01

    The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems - dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms - are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous

  13. Climate conditions, workplace heat and occupational health in South-East Asia in the context of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias

    2017-09-01

    Occupational health is particularly affected by high heat exposures in workplaces, which will be an increasing problem as climate change progresses. People working in jobs of moderate or heavy work intensity in hot environments are at particular risk, owing to exposure to high environmental heat and internal heat production. This heat needs to be released to protect health, and such release is difficult or impossible at high temperatures and high air humidity. A range of clinical health effects can occur, and the heat-related physical exhaustion leads to a reduction of work capacity and labour productivity, which may cause substantial economic losses. Current trends in countries of the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region are towards higher ambient heat levels during large parts of each year, and modelling indicates continuing trends, which will particularly affect low-income individuals and communities. Prevention activities need to address the climate policies of each country, and to apply currently available heat-reducing technologies in workplaces whenever possible. Work activities can be adjusted to reduce exposure to daily heat peaks or seasonal heat concerns. Application of basic occupational health principles, such as supply of drinking water, enforcement of rest periods and training of workers and supervisors, is essential.

  14. A systematic analysis of enabling conditions for synergy between climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duguma, L.A.; Wambugu, S.W.; Minang, P.A.; Noordwijk, van M.

    2014-01-01

    There is a growing quest for synergy between mitigation and adaptation due to concerns of inefficiency and ineffectiveness of the compartmentalized approaches to climate change. However, little has been done to explore the necessary enabling conditions for synergistic design and implementation. This

  15. To the micro-climatic condition influence upon the environment pollution during exploitation of being oxidized mineral deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhmedzhanov, T.K.; Al'mukhambetova, Sh.K.; Bajramov, I.M.

    1998-01-01

    Conducted researches showed dependence of environment pollution rate under exploration of being oxidized mineral deposits from number of meteorological futures of season changes. Zones of gases spreading in atmosphere from sources of pollution in dependence from micro-climatic conditions are estimated. Results can be used during preventive measures projecting for environment in deposits districts. (author)

  16. Comparison of Regression Techniques to Predict Response of Oilseed Rape Yield to Variation in Climatic Conditions in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharif, Behzad; Makowski, David; Plauborg, Finn

    2017-01-01

    Statistical regression models represent alternatives to process-based dynamic models for predicting the response of crop yields to variation in climatic conditions. Regression models can be used to quantify the effect of change in temperature and precipitation on yields. However, it is difficult ...

  17. Fate of As(V)-treated nano zero-valent iron: determination of arsenic desorption potential under varying environmental conditions by phosphate extraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Haoran; Guan, Xiaohong; Lo, Irene M C

    2012-09-01

    Nano zero-valent iron (NZVI) offers a promising approach for arsenic remediation, but the spent NZVI with elevated arsenic content could arouse safety concerns. This study investigated the fate of As(V)-treated NZVI (As-NZVI), by examining the desorption potential of As under varying conditions. The desorption kinetics of As from As-NZVI as induced by phosphate was well described by a biphasic rate model. The effects of As(V)/NZVI mass ratio, pH, and aging time on arsenic desorption from As-NZVI by phosphate were investigated. Less arsenic desorption was observed at lower pH or higher As(V)/NZVI mass ratio, where stronger complexes (bidentate) formed between As(V) and NZVI corrosion products as indicated by FTIR analysis. Compared with the fresh As-NZVI, the amount of phosphate-extractable As significantly decreased in As-NZVI aged for 30 or 60 days. The results of the sequential extraction experiments demonstrated that a larger fraction of As was sorbed in the crystalline phases after aging, making it less susceptible to phosphate displacement. However, at pH 9, a slightly higher proportion of phosphate-extractable As was observed in the 60-day sample than in the 30-day sample. XPS results revealed the transformation of As(V) to more easily desorbed As(III) during aging and a higher As(III)/As(V) ratio in the 60-day sample at pH 9, which might have resulted in the higher desorption. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Understanding the Role of Microorganisms in Soil Quality and Fertility under changing Climatic Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dercon, Gerd; Adu-Gyamfi, Joseph; Heiling, Maria; Aigner, Martina; Nguyen, Minh-Long [Soil and Water Management and Crop Nutrition Laboratory, Joint FAO/IAEA Division for Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, Seibersdorf (Austria); Schwartz, Egbert [Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, (United States); Dexin, Lin [Soil and Water Management and Crop Nutrition Laboratory, Joint FAO/IAEA Division for Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, Seibersdorf, (Austria); Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fujian (China)

    2013-01-15

    The Soil and Water Management and Crop Nutrition (SWMCN) Subprogramme (Section and Laboratory) assists FAO and IAEA Member States in the development, validation and dissemination of a range of soil, water and crop management technology packages using nuclear and nuclear-related techniques. In the coming years, SWMCN aims to (i) improve soil quality and soil resilience against the impacts of climate change and variability and (ii) reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase soil carbon sequestration in both productive and marginal lands. To achieve these aims, the SWMCN Subprogramme is planning to put major emphasis on applied microbial ecology. Microbial communities play a major role in soil fertility improvement through the decomposition of crop residues, live- stock manure and soil organic matter. These microbes are often affected by variations in rainfall and temperature patterns caused by climate change. Recent advances in the use of stable isotopes like carbon-3, nitrogen-5 and oxygen-18 as biomarkers to characterize microbial communities and their interactions with soil nutrient and organic matter processes, known as stable isotope probing (SIP), are important for soil-water-nutrient management. SIP helps us to understand the interactions between soil microbial communities and their specific functions in soil carbon sequestration, soil organic matter stabilization, soil fertility and soil resilience, as well as the soil productive capacity for sustainable intensification of cropping and livestock production. SIP involves the introduction of a stable isotope labelled substrate into a soil microbial community to trace the fate of the substrate. This allows direct observations of substrate assimilation to be made in minimally disturbed communities of microorganisms. Microorganisms that are actively involved in specific metabolic processes can be identified under in-situ conditions. SIP is most developed for carbon-13 probing, but studies using nitrogen-15 and

  19. Seasonal variation in the incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia in tropical climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subramaniam Vidya

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Observational studies have demonstrated various correlations between hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and different weather parameters. We aim to study if a correlation exists between the incidence of eclampsia and pre-eclampsia and various weather parameters in the tropical coastal city of Mumbai which has the distinction of having relatively uniform meteorological variables all throughout the year, except for the monsoon season. Methods We retrospectively analysed data from a large maternity centre in Mumbai, India over a period of 36 months from March 1993 to February 1996, recording the incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia. Meteorological data was acquired from the regional meteorological centre recording the monthly average temperature, humidity, barometric pressure and rainfall during the study period. Study period was then divided into two climate conditions: monsoon season (June to August and dry season September to May. The incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia and the meteorological differences between the two seasons were compared. Results Over a 36-month period, a total of 29562 deliveries were recorded, of which 1238 patients developed preeclampsia (4.18% and 34 developed eclampsia (0.11%. The incidence of preeclampsia did not differ between the monsoon and the dry season (4.3% vs. 4.15%, p = 0.5. The incidence of eclampsia was significantly higher in the monsoon (0.2% vs. 0.08%, p = 0.01. The monsoon was significantly cooler (median maximum temperature 30.7°C vs. 32.3°C, p = 0.01, more humid (median relative humidity 85% vs. 70%, p = 0.0008, and received higher rainfall (median 504.9 mm vs. 0.3 mm, p = 0.0002 than the rest of the year. The median barometric pressure (1005 mb during the monsoon season was significantly lower than the rest of the year (1012 mb, p Conclusion In the tropical climate of Mumbai, the incidence of eclampsia is significantly higher in monsoon, when the weather is cooler and

  20. DOE Final Report on Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuang, Qianlai [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Schlosser, C. Adam [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Melillo, Jerry M. [Marine Biological Lab. (MBL), Woods Hole, MA (United States); Anthony, Katey Walter [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Kicklighter, David [Marine Biological Lab. (MBL), Woods Hole, MA (United States); Gao, Xiang [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-03

    Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands