Pluck or Luck: Does Trait Variation or Chance Drive Variation in Lifetime Reproductive Success?

Science.gov (United States)

Snyder, Robin E; Ellner, Stephen P

2018-04-01

While there has been extensive interest in how intraspecific trait variation affects ecological processes, outcomes are highly variable even when individuals are identical: some are lucky, while others are not. Trait variation is therefore important only if it adds substantially to the variability produced by luck. We ask when trait variation has a substantial effect on variability in lifetime reproductive success (LRS), using two approaches: (1) we partition the variation in LRS into contributions from luck and trait variation and (2) we ask what can be inferred about an individual's traits and with what certainty, given their observed LRS. In theoretical stage- and size-structured models and two empirical case studies, we find that luck usually dominates the variance of LRS. Even when individuals differ substantially in ways that affect expected LRS, unless the effects of luck are substantially reduced (e.g., low variability in reproductive life span or annual fecundity), most variance in lifetime outcomes is due to luck, implying that departures from "null" models omitting trait variation will be hard to detect. Luck also obscures the relationship between realized LRS and individual traits. While trait variation may influence the fate of populations, luck often governs the lives of individuals.

Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. V. Drisya

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that deterministic forecasting methods can make accurate short-term predictions of wind speed using past data, at locations where the wind dynamics exhibit chaotic behaviour. The predictions are remarkably accurate up to 1 h with a normalised RMSE (root mean square error of less than 0.02 and reasonably accurate up to 3 h with an error of less than 0.06. Repeated application of these methods at 234 different geographical locations for predicting wind speeds at 30-day intervals for 3 years reveals that the accuracy of prediction is more or less the same across all locations and time periods. Comparison of the results with f-ARIMA model predictions shows that the deterministic models with suitable parameters are capable of returning improved prediction accuracy and capturing the dynamical variations of the actual time series more faithfully. These methods are simple and computationally efficient and require only records of past data for making short-term wind speed forecasts within practically tolerable margin of errors.

The Prediction of Length-of-day Variations Based on Gaussian Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, Y.; Zhao, D. N.; Gao, Y. P.; Cai, H. B.

2015-01-01

Due to the complicated time-varying characteristics of the length-of-day (LOD) variations, the accuracies of traditional strategies for the prediction of the LOD variations such as the least squares extrapolation model, the time-series analysis model, and so on, have not met the requirements for real-time and high-precision applications. In this paper, a new machine learning algorithm --- the Gaussian process (GP) model is employed to forecast the LOD variations. Its prediction precisions are analyzed and compared with those of the back propagation neural networks (BPNN), general regression neural networks (GRNN) models, and the Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (EOP PCC). The results demonstrate that the application of the GP model to the prediction of the LOD variations is efficient and feasible.

Comparison of predicted and measured variations of indoor radon concentration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arvela, H.; Voutilainen, A.; Maekelaeinen, I.; Castren, O.; Winqvist, K.

1988-01-01

Prediction of the variations of indoor radon concentration were calculated using a model relating indoor radon concentration to radon entry rate, air infiltration and meteorological factors. These calculated variations have been compared with seasonal variations of 33 houses during 1-4 years, with winter-summer concentration ratios of 300 houses and the measured diurnal variation. In houses with a slab in ground contact the measured seasonal variations are quite often in agreement with variations predicted for nearly pure pressure difference driven flow. The contribution of a diffusion source is significant in houses with large porous concrete walls against the ground. Air flow due to seasonally variable thermal convection within eskers strongly affects the seasonal variations within houses located thereon. Measured and predicted winter-summer concentration ratios demonstrate that, on average, the ratio is a function of radon concentration. The ratio increases with increasing winter concentration. According to the model the diurnal maximum caused by a pressure difference driven flow occurs in the morning, a finding which is in agreement with the measurements. The model presented can be used for differentiating between factors affecting radon entry into houses. (author)

Prediction models for successful external cephalic version: a systematic review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Velzel, Joost; de Hundt, Marcella; Mulder, Frederique M.; Molkenboer, Jan F. M.; van der Post, Joris A. M.; Mol, Ben W.; Kok, Marjolein

2015-01-01

To provide an overview of existing prediction models for successful ECV, and to assess their quality, development and performance. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library to identify all articles reporting on prediction models for successful ECV published from inception to January 2015.

Authentic Leadership and Emotional Intelligence: Predicting Student Success

Science.gov (United States)

Jasso, Sonia Lizette

2016-01-01

Student success has been predicted conservatively, using academic, demographic, and economic variables. Since many colleges are feeling the pressure to produce more graduates, student success is at the forefront of all universities. This study looks to find a relationship between traditional and non-traditional variables. The objective of the…

Psychosocial Factors Predicting First-Year College Student Success

Science.gov (United States)

Krumrei-Mancuso, Elizabeth J.; Newton, Fred B.; Kim, Eunhee; Wilcox, Dan

2013-01-01

This study made use of a model of college success that involves students achieving academic goals and life satisfaction. Hierarchical regressions examined the role of six psychosocial factors for college success among 579 first-year college students. Academic self-efficacy and organization and attention to study were predictive of first semester…

The evolution of polyandry: patterns of genotypic variation in female mating frequency, male fertilization success and a test of the sexy-sperm hypothesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Simmons, L W

2003-07-01

The sexy-sperm hypothesis predicts that females obtain indirect benefits for their offspring via polyandy, in the form of increased fertilization success for their sons. I use a quantitative genetic approach to test the sexy-sperm hypothesis using the field cricket Teleogryllus oceanicus. Previous studies of this species have shown considerable phenotypic variation in fertilization success when two or more males compete. There were high broad-sense heritabilities for both paternity and polyandry. Patterns of genotypic variance were consistent with X-linked inheritance and/or maternal effects on these traits. The genetic architecture therefore precludes the evolution of polyandry via a sexy-sperm process. Thus the positive genetic correlation between paternity in sons and polyandry in daughters predicted by the sexy-sperm hypothesis was absent. There was significant heritable variation in the investment by females in ovaries and by males in the accessory gland. Surprisingly there was a very strong genetic correlation between these two traits. The significance of this genetic correlation for the coevolution of male seminal products and polyandry is discussed.

Prediction models for successful external cephalic version: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Velzel, Joost; de Hundt, Marcella; Mulder, Frederique M; Molkenboer, Jan F M; Van der Post, Joris A M; Mol, Ben W; Kok, Marjolein

2015-12-01

To provide an overview of existing prediction models for successful ECV, and to assess their quality, development and performance. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library to identify all articles reporting on prediction models for successful ECV published from inception to January 2015. We extracted information on study design, sample size, model-building strategies and validation. We evaluated the phases of model development and summarized their performance in terms of discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness. We collected different predictor variables together with their defined significance, in order to identify important predictor variables for successful ECV. We identified eight articles reporting on seven prediction models. All models were subjected to internal validation. Only one model was also validated in an external cohort. Two prediction models had a low overall risk of bias, of which only one showed promising predictive performance at internal validation. This model also completed the phase of external validation. For none of the models their impact on clinical practice was evaluated. The most important predictor variables for successful ECV described in the selected articles were parity, placental location, breech engagement and the fetal head being palpable. One model was assessed using discrimination and calibration using internal (AUC 0.71) and external validation (AUC 0.64), while two other models were assessed with discrimination and calibration, respectively. We found one prediction model for breech presentation that was validated in an external cohort and had acceptable predictive performance. This model should be used to council women considering ECV. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Factors predicting successful discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Katayama, S; Uchino, S; Uji, M; Ohnuma, T; Namba, Y; Kawarazaki, H; Toki, N; Takeda, K; Yasuda, H; Izawa, J; Tokuhira, N; Nagata, I

2016-07-01

This multicentre, retrospective observational study was conducted from January 2010 to December 2010 to determine the optimal time for discontinuing continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) by evaluating factors predictive of successful discontinuation in patients with acute kidney injury. Analysis was performed for patients after CRRT was discontinued because of renal function recovery. Patients were divided into two groups according to the success or failure of CRRT discontinuation. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, urine output at discontinuation, creatinine level and CRRT duration were found to be significant variables (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for urine output, 0.814). In conclusion, we found that higher urine output, lower creatinine and shorter CRRT duration were significant factors to predict successful discontinuation of CRRT.

"Eyeball test" of thermographic patterns for predicting a successful lateral infraclavicular block.

Science.gov (United States)

Andreasen, Asger M; Linnet, Karen E; Asghar, Semera; Rothe, Christian; Rosenstock, Charlotte V; Lange, Kai H W; Lundstrøm, Lars H

2017-11-01

Increased distal skin temperature can be used to predict the success of lateral infraclavicular (LIC) block. We hypothesized that an "eyeball test" of specific infrared thermographic patterns after LIC block could be used to determine block success. In this observational study, five observers trained in four distinct thermographic patterns independently evaluated thermographic images of the hands of 40 patients at baseline and at one-minute intervals for 30 min after a LIC block. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of a positive and a negative test were estimated to evaluate the validity of specific thermographic patterns for predicting a successful block. Sensory and motor block of the musculocutaneous, radial, ulnar, and median nerves defined block success. Fleiss' kappa statistics of multiple interobserver agreements were used to evaluate reliability. As a diagnostic test, the defined specific thermographic patterns of the hand predicted a successful block with increasing accuracy over the 30-min observation period. Block success was predicted with a sensitivity of 92.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 86.8 to 96.2) and with a specificity of 84.0% (95% CI, 70.3 to 92.4) at min 30. The Fleiss' kappa for the five observers was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.96). We conclude that visual evaluation by an eyeball test of specific thermographic patterns of the blocked hands may be useful as a valid and reliable diagnostic test for predicting a successful LIC block.

Stroke volume variation compared with pulse pressure variation and cardiac index changes for prediction of fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Randa Aly Soliman

2015-04-01

Conclusions: Baseline stroke volume variation ⩾8.15% predicted fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients with acute circulatory failure. The study also confirmed the ability of pulse pressure variation to predict fluid responsiveness.

Thermal Phase Variations of WASP-12b: Defying Predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Cowan, Nicolas B.; Machalek, Pavel; Croll, Bryce; Shekhtman, Louis M.; Burrows, Adam; Deming, Drake; Greene, Tom; Hora, Joseph L.

2012-01-01

We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers. This extremely inflated hot Jupiter is thought to be overflowing its Roche lobe, undergoing mass loss and accretion onto its host star, and has been claimed to have a C/O ratio in excess of unity. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large-amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously measured dayside spectral energy distribution, are indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared-(R(sub p)/R(sub *))(sup 2) = 0.0123(3) and 0.0111(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers, respectively-indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 micrometers, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies: F(sub day)/F(sub *) = 0.0038(4) and 0.0039(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers, respectively. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 micrometers, but our parameter uncertainties-estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo-keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 micrometers, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's elongated shape, these variations imply a 3:2 ratio for the planet's longest:shortest axes and a relatively bright day-night terminator. If we instead presume that the 4.5 micrometer ellipsoidal variations are due to uncorrected systematic noise and we fix the amplitude of the variations to zero, the best-fit 4.5 micrometer transit depth becomes commensurate with the 3.6 micrometer depth, within the uncertainties. The relative transit depths are then consistent with a solar composition and short scale height at the terminator. Assuming zero ellipsoidal variations also yields a much

THERMAL PHASE VARIATIONS OF WASP-12b: DEFYING PREDICTIONS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cowan, Nicolas B.; Shekhtman, Louis M.; Machalek, Pavel; Croll, Bryce; Burrows, Adam; Deming, Drake; Greene, Tom; Hora, Joseph L.

2012-01-01

We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 μm. This extremely inflated hot Jupiter is thought to be overflowing its Roche lobe, undergoing mass loss and accretion onto its host star, and has been claimed to have a C/O ratio in excess of unity. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large-amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously measured dayside spectral energy distribution, are indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared—(R p /R * ) 2 = 0.0123(3) and 0.0111(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 μm, respectively—indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 μm, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies: F day /F * = 0.0038(4) and 0.0039(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 μm, respectively. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 μm, but our parameter uncertainties—estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo—keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 μm, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's elongated shape, these variations imply a 3:2 ratio for the planet's longest:shortest axes and a relatively bright day-night terminator. If we instead presume that the 4.5 μm ellipsoidal variations are due to uncorrected systematic noise and we fix the amplitude of the variations to zero, the best-fit 4.5 μm transit depth becomes commensurate with the 3.6 μm depth, within the uncertainties. The relative transit depths are then consistent with a solar composition and short scale height at the terminator. Assuming zero ellipsoidal variations also yields a much deeper 4.5 μm eclipse depth, consistent with a solar composition and modest

Individual quality explains variation in reproductive success better than territory quality in a long-lived territorial raptor.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jabi Zabala

Full Text Available Evolution by natural selection depends on the relationship between individual traits and fitness. Variation in individual fitness can result from habitat (territory quality and individual variation. Individual quality and specialization can have a deep impact on fitness, yet in most studies on territorial species the quality of territory and individuals are confused. We aimed to determine if variation in breeding success is better explained by territories, individual quality or a combination of both. We analysed the number of fledglings and the breeding quality index (the difference between the number of fledglings of an individual/breeding pair and the average number of fledglings of the monitored territories in the same year as part of a long term (16 years peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus monitoring program with identification of individuals. Using individual and territory identities as correlates of quality, we built Generalised Linear Models with Mixed effects, in which random factors depicted different hypotheses for sources of variation (territory/individual quality in the reproductive success of unique breeding pairs, males and females, and assessed their performance. Most evidence supported the hypothesis that variation in breeding success is explained by individual identity, particularly male identity, rather than territory. There is also some evidence for inter year variations in the breeding success of females and a territory effect in the case of males. We argue that, in territorial species, individual quality is a major source of variation in breeding success, often masked by territory. Future ecological and conservation studies on habitat use should consider and include the effect of individuals, in order to avoid misleading results.

Diaphragmatic excursion: does it predict successful weaning from mechanical ventilation?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayat, A.; Khalil, A.

2017-01-01

To measure the diaphragmatic excursion and its outcome on weani ng from mechanical ventilation. Study Design: Cross-sectional comparative study. Place and Duration of Study: Medical Intensive Care Unit (ICU), Military Hospital (MH), Rawalpindi, Pakistan, from January to December 2014. Methodology: Diaphragmatic excursion (DE) in cm was measured through ultrasound by marking liver and spleen displacement in patients who fulfilled the criteria of removal from ventilatory support. The patients were followed up for 48 hours and classified according to the outcome as successful weaning and weaning failure. Results: Out of 100 cases, 76 patients had a successful weaning while 24 had a failed weaning outcome. At a diaphragmatic excursion of 1.2 cm and more, out of 67 cases, 60 had a successful weaning (89.55%) while 7 cases (10.45%) had a weaning failure. At an excursion of less than 1. 2 cm, 17 out of 33 cases (51.5%) had successful weaning while 16 (48.48%) had weaning failure. At this cut off point (1.2 cm), the sensitivity and specificity for successful weaning were 78.95% and 70.83%, respectively. The positive and negative likelihood ratio (LR) for these values being 2.70 and 0.29, respectively. The positive predictive value was 82.35% and negative predictive value 60.00%. Conclusion: Ultrasonographic measurement of diaphragmatic excursion is a good method for predicting weaning outcome from mechanical ventilation. (author)

Pathways, mechanisms and predictability of vegetation change during tropical dry forest succession

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lebrija Trejos, E.E.; Meave, J.; Poorter, L.; Pérez- García, E.A.; Bongers, F.

2010-01-01

The development of forest succession theory has been based on studies in temperate and tropical wet forests. As rates and pathways of succession vary with the environment, advances in successional theory and study approaches are challenged by controversies derived from such variation and by the

THERMAL PHASE VARIATIONS OF WASP-12b: DEFYING PREDICTIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cowan, Nicolas B.; Shekhtman, Louis M. [Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics (CIERA) and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northwestern University, 2131 Tech Dr, Evanston, IL 60208 (United States); Machalek, Pavel [SETI Institute, 189 Bernardo Ave., Suite 100, Mountain View, CA 94043 (United States); Croll, Bryce [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 50 George St., Toronto, ON, M5S 3H4 (Canada); Burrows, Adam [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 05844 (United States); Deming, Drake [Planetary Systems Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Greene, Tom [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Hora, Joseph L., E-mail: n-cowan@northwestern.edu [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

2012-03-01

We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 {mu}m. This extremely inflated hot Jupiter is thought to be overflowing its Roche lobe, undergoing mass loss and accretion onto its host star, and has been claimed to have a C/O ratio in excess of unity. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large-amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously measured dayside spectral energy distribution, are indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared-(R{sub p} /R{sub *}){sup 2} = 0.0123(3) and 0.0111(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 {mu}m, respectively-indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 {mu}m, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies: F{sub day}/F{sub *} = 0.0038(4) and 0.0039(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 {mu}m, respectively. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 {mu}m, but our parameter uncertainties-estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo-keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 {mu}m, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's elongated shape, these variations imply a 3:2 ratio for the planet's longest:shortest axes and a relatively bright day-night terminator. If we instead presume that the 4.5 {mu}m ellipsoidal variations are due to uncorrected systematic noise and we fix the amplitude of the variations to zero, the best-fit 4.5 {mu}m transit depth becomes commensurate with the 3.6 {mu}m depth, within the uncertainties. The relative transit depths are then consistent with a solar composition and short scale height at the terminator. Assuming zero ellipsoidal variations also yields a much deeper 4.5 {mu}m eclipse depth

Linear genetic programming application for successive-station monthly streamflow prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan; Yerdelen, Cahit

2014-09-01

In recent decades, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been pronounced as a branch of computer science to model wide range of hydrological phenomena. A number of researches have been still comparing these techniques in order to find more effective approaches in terms of accuracy and applicability. In this study, we examined the ability of linear genetic programming (LGP) technique to model successive-station monthly streamflow process, as an applied alternative for streamflow prediction. A comparative efficiency study between LGP and three different artificial neural network algorithms, namely feed forward back propagation (FFBP), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), and radial basis function (RBF), has also been presented in this study. For this aim, firstly, we put forward six different successive-station monthly streamflow prediction scenarios subjected to training by LGP and FFBP using the field data recorded at two gauging stations on Çoruh River, Turkey. Based on Nash-Sutcliffe and root mean squared error measures, we then compared the efficiency of these techniques and selected the best prediction scenario. Eventually, GRNN and RBF algorithms were utilized to restructure the selected scenario and to compare with corresponding FFBP and LGP. Our results indicated the promising role of LGP for successive-station monthly streamflow prediction providing more accurate results than those of all the ANN algorithms. We found an explicit LGP-based expression evolved by only the basic arithmetic functions as the best prediction model for the river, which uses the records of the both target and upstream stations.

Using data mining to predict success in a weight loss trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Batterham, M; Tapsell, L; Charlton, K; O'Shea, J; Thorne, R

2017-08-01

Traditional methods for predicting weight loss success use regression approaches, which make the assumption that the relationships between the independent and dependent (or logit of the dependent) variable are linear. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between common demographic and early weight loss variables to predict weight loss success at 12 months without making this assumption. Data mining methods (decision trees, generalised additive models and multivariate adaptive regression splines), in addition to logistic regression, were employed to predict: (i) weight loss success (defined as ≥5%) at the end of a 12-month dietary intervention using demographic variables [body mass index (BMI), sex and age]; percentage weight loss at 1 month; and (iii) the difference between actual and predicted weight loss using an energy balance model. The methods were compared by assessing model parsimony and the area under the curve (AUC). The decision tree provided the most clinically useful model and had a good accuracy (AUC 0.720 95% confidence interval = 0.600-0.840). Percentage weight loss at 1 month (≥0.75%) was the strongest predictor for successful weight loss. Within those individuals losing ≥0.75%, individuals with a BMI (≥27 kg m -2 ) were more likely to be successful than those with a BMI between 25 and 27 kg m -2 . Data mining methods can provide a more accurate way of assessing relationships when conventional assumptions are not met. In the present study, a decision tree provided the most parsimonious model. Given that early weight loss cannot be predicted before randomisation, incorporating this information into a post randomisation trial design may give better weight loss results. © 2017 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Noninvasive pulse pressure variation and stroke volume variation to predict fluid responsiveness at multiple thresholds : a prospective observational study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vos, Jaap Jan; Poterman, Marieke; Papineau Salm, Pieternel; Van Amsterdam, Kai; Struys, Michel M. R. F.; Scheeren, Thomas W. L.; Kalmar, Alain F.

2015-01-01

Pulse pressure variation (PPV) and stroke volume variation (SVV) are dynamic preload variables that can be measured noninvasively to assess fluid responsiveness (FR) in anesthetized patients with mechanical ventilation. Few studies have examined the effectiveness of predicting FR according to the

INSIGHTS FROM MACHINE-LEARNED DIET SUCCESS PREDICTION.

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, Ingmar; Achananuparp, Palakorn

2016-01-01

To support people trying to lose weight and stay healthy, more and more fitness apps have sprung up including the ability to track both calories intake and expenditure. Users of such apps are part of a wider "quantified self" movement and many opt-in to publicly share their logged data. In this paper, we use public food diaries of more than 4,000 long-term active MyFitnessPal users to study the characteristics of a (un-)successful diet. Concretely, we train a machine learning model to predict repeatedly being over or under self-set daily calories goals and then look at which features contribute to the model's prediction. Our findings include both expected results, such as the token "mcdonalds" or the category "dessert" being indicative for being over the calories goal, but also less obvious ones such as the difference between pork and poultry concerning dieting success, or the use of the "quick added calories" functionality being indicative of over-shooting calorie-wise. This study also hints at the feasibility of using such data for more in-depth data mining, e.g., looking at the interaction between consumed foods such as mixing protein- and carbohydrate-rich foods. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematic study of public food diaries.

Blinded Observer Evaluation of Distal Skin Temperature for Predicting Lateral Infraclavicular Block Success

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asghar, Semera; Lange, Kai H W; Lundstrøm, Lars H

2015-01-01

as a diagnostic test for predicting a successful lateral infraclavicular block. METHODS: Blinded observers investigated temperature difference between the blocked and the nonblocked hands of 40 patients. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of a positive and a negative test were estimated......BACKGROUND: Changes in digit skin temperature may be used to predict and determine upper limb nerve block success. We investigated whether a temperature difference between the blocked and the nonblocked hands, simply registered by touching the skin of the 5th and 2nd digit was valid and reliable...... for evaluating the validity of a temperature difference for predicting a successful lateral infraclavicular block defined by sensory and motor block of all 4 major nerves (musculocutaneous, radial, ulnar, and median nerves). κ statistics of interobserver agreement were used for evaluating the reliability...

A Data mining Technique for Analyzing and Predicting the success of Movie

Science.gov (United States)

Meenakshi, K.; Maragatham, G.; Agarwal, Neha; Ghosh, Ishitha

2018-04-01

In real world prediction models and mechanisms can be used to predict the success of a movie. The proposed work aims to develop a system based upon data mining techniques that may help in predicting the success of a movie in advance thereby reducing certain level of uncertainty. An attempt is made to predict the past as well as the future of movie for the purpose of business certainty or simply a theoretical condition in which decision making [the success of the movie] is without risk, because the decision maker [movie makers and stake holders] has all the information about the exact outcome of the decision, before he or she makes the decision [release of the movie]. With over two million spectators a day and films exported to over 100 countries, the impact of Bollywood film industry is formidable We gather a series of interesting facts and relationships using a variety of data mining techniques. In particular, we concentrate on attributes relevant to the success prediction of movies, such as whether any particular actors or actresses are likely to help a movie to succeed. The paper additionally reports on the techniques used, giving their implementation and utility. Additionally, we found some attention-grabbing facts, such as the budget of a movie isn't any indication of how well-rated it'll be, there's a downward trend within the quality of films over time, and also the director and actors/actresses involved in the movie.

External Validation of a Prediction Model for Successful External Cephalic Version

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Hundt, Marcella; Vlemmix, Floortje; Kok, Marjolein; van der Steeg, Jan W.; Bais, Joke M.; Mol, Ben W.; van der Post, Joris A.

2012-01-01

We sought external validation of a prediction model for the probability of a successful external cephalic version (ECV). We evaluated the performance of the prediction model with calibration and discrimination. For clinical practice, we developed a score chart to calculate the probability of a

Are traditional cognitive tests useful in predicting clinical success?

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Sarah A; Deem, Lisa P; Straja, Sorin R

2002-11-01

The purpose of this research was to determine the predictive value of the Dental Admission Test (DAT) for clinical success using Ackerman's theory of ability determinants of skilled performance. The Ackerman theory is a valid, reliable schema in the applied psychology literature used to predict complex skill acquisition. Inconsistent stimulus-response skill acquisition depends primarily on determinants of cognitive ability. Consistent information-processing tasks have been described as "automatic," in which stimuli and responses are mapped in a manner that allows for complete certainty once the relationships have been learned. It is theorized that the skills necessary for success in the clinical component of dental schools involve a significant amount of automatic processing demands and, as such, student performance in the clinics should begin to converge as task practice is realized and tasks become more consistent. Subtest scores of the DAT of four classes were correlated with final grades in nine clinical courses. Results showed that the DAT subtest scores played virtually no role with regard to the final clinical grades. Based on this information, the DAT scores were determined to be of no predictive value in clinical achievement.

Factors predictive of successful learning in postgraduate medical education

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Smits, P. B. A.; Verbeek, J. H. A. M.; Nauta, M. C. E.; ten Cate, Th J.; Metz, J. C. M.; van Dijk, F. J. H.

2004-01-01

PURPOSE To establish which personal and contextual factors are predictive of successful outcomes in postgraduate medical education. METHOD We performed a follow-up study of 118 doctors on a postgraduate occupational health training programme on the management of mental health problems. The following

Orchiopexy for intra-abdominal testes: factors predicting success.

Science.gov (United States)

Stec, Andrew A; Tanaka, Stacy T; Adams, Mark C; Pope, John C; Thomas, John C; Brock, John W

2009-10-01

Intra-abdominal testes can be treated with several surgical procedures. We evaluated factors influencing the outcome of orchiopexy for intra-abdominal testis. We retrospectively reviewed 156 consecutive orchiopexies performed for intra-abdominal testis, defined as a nonpalpable testis on examination and located in the abdomen at surgery. All surgical approaches were included in the study. Primary outcome was the overall success rate and secondary outcomes were success based on surgical approach, age and a patent processus vaginalis. Success was considered a testis with normal texture and size compared to the contralateral testis at followup. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine factors predictive of success. The overall success rate of all orchiopexies was 79.5%. Median patient age at orchiopexy was 12 months and mean followup was 16 months. Of the patients 117 had a patent processus vaginalis at surgery. One-stage abdominal orchiopexy was performed in 92 testes with 89.1% success. Of these cases 32 were performed laparoscopically with 96.9% success. One-stage Fowler-Stephens orchiopexy was performed in 27 testes and 2-stage Fowler-Stephens orchiopexy was performed in 37 with success in 63.0% and 67.6%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that 1-stage orchiopexy without vessel division had more successful outcomes than 1 and 2-stage Fowler-Stephens orchiopexy (OR 0.24, p = 0.007 and 0.29, p = 0.19, respectively). Neither age at surgery nor an open internal ring was significant (p = 0.49 and 0.12, respectively). The overall success of orchiopexy for intra-abdominal testis is 79.5%. While patient selection remains a critical factor, 1-stage orchiopexy without vessel division was significantly more successful and a laparoscopic approach was associated with the fewest failures for intra-abdominal testes.

Predicting Ranger Assessment and Selection Program 1 Success and Optimizing Class Composition

Science.gov (United States)

2017-06-01

Healthcare Specialist) 149 150 68X ( Mental Health Specialist) 1 74 74D (Chemical Operations Specialist) 15 15 88 88M (Motor Transport Operator) 27 27 89...regression and partition tree models to identify significant factors that contribute to a candidate’s success at RASP1 and predict graduation rates. We...tree models to identify significant factors that contribute to a candidate’s success at RASP1 and predict graduation rates. We use an integer linear

Controlling cyclic combustion timing variations using a symbol-statistics predictive approach in an HCCI engine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghazimirsaied, Ahmad; Koch, Charles Robert

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Misfire reduction in a combustion engine based on chaotic theory methods. ► Chaotic theory analysis of cyclic variation of a HCCI engine near misfire. ► Symbol sequence approach is used to predict ignition timing one cycle-ahead. ► Prediction is combined with feedback control to lower HCCI combustion variation. ► Feedback control extends the HCCI operating range into the misfire region. -- Abstract: Cyclic variation of a Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) engine near misfire is analyzed using chaotic theory methods and feedback control is used to stabilize high cyclic variations. Variation of consecutive cycles of θ Pmax (the crank angle of maximum cylinder pressure over an engine cycle) for a Primary Reference Fuel engine is analyzed near misfire operation for five test points with similar conditions but different octane numbers. The return map of the time series of θ Pmax at each combustion cycle reveals the deterministic and random portions of the dynamics near misfire for this HCCI engine. A symbol-statistic approach is used to predict θ Pmax one cycle-ahead. Predicted θ Pmax has similar dynamical behavior to the experimental measurements. Based on this cycle ahead prediction, and using fuel octane as the input, feedback control is used to stabilize the instability of θ Pmax variations at this engine condition near misfire.

Success Prediction: A DDC Bibliography. December 1949--December 1971.

Science.gov (United States)

Defense Documentation Center, Alexandria, VA.

This document contains bibliographic information, descriptive terms, and abstracts for 145 technical reports on the general subject of success prediction. The bibliography includes reports on development of individuals during military training, peer evaluation, biographical inventory, and the validity of tests which may be used as predictors of…

Development of a Predictive Model for Induction Success of Labour

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Pruenza

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Induction of the labour process is an extraordinarily common procedure used in some pregnancies. Obstetricians face the need to end a pregnancy, for medical reasons usually (maternal or fetal requirements or less frequently, social (elective inductions for convenience. The success of induction procedure is conditioned by a multitude of maternal and fetal variables that appear before or during pregnancy or birth process, with a low predictive value. The failure of the induction process involves performing a caesarean section. This project arises from the clinical need to resolve a situation of uncertainty that occurs frequently in our clinical practice. Since the weight of clinical variables is not adequately weighted, we consider very interesting to know a priori the possibility of success of induction to dismiss those inductions with high probability of failure, avoiding unnecessary procedures or postponing end if possible. We developed a predictive model of induced labour success as a support tool in clinical decision making. Improve the predictability of a successful induction is one of the current challenges of Obstetrics because of its negative impact. The identification of those patients with high chances of failure, will allow us to offer them better care improving their health outcomes (adverse perinatal outcomes for mother and newborn, costs (medication, hospitalization, qualified staff and patient perceived quality. Therefore a Clinical Decision Support System was developed to give support to the Obstetricians. In this article, we had proposed a robust method to explore and model a source of clinical information with the purpose of obtaining all possible knowledge. Generally, in classification models are difficult to know the contribution that each attribute provides to the model. We had worked in this direction to offer transparency to models that may be considered as black boxes. The positive results obtained from both the

Pediatric extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy: Predicting successful outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

McAdams, Sean; Shukla, Aseem R

2010-10-01

Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) is currently a first-line procedure of most upper urinary tract stones ionizing radiation, perhaps utilizing advancements in ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging. This report provides a review of the current literature evaluating the patient attributes and stone factors that may be predictive of successful ESWL outcomes along with reviewing the role of pre-operative imaging and considerations for patient safety.

Psychological approach to successful ageing predicts future quality of life in older adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iliffe Steve

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Public policies aim to promote well-being, and ultimately the quality of later life. Positive perspectives of ageing are underpinned by a range of appraoches to successful ageing. This study aimed to investigate whether baseline biological, psychological and social aproaches to successful ageing predicted future QoL. Methods Postal follow-up in 2007/8 of a national random sample of 999 people aged 65 and over in 1999/2000. Of 496 valid addresses of survivors at follow-up, the follow-up response rate was 58% (287. Measures of the different concepts of successful ageing were constructed using baseline indicators. They were assessed for their ability to independently predict quality of life at follow-up. Results Few respondents achieved all good scores within each of the approaches to successful ageing. Each approach was associated with follow-up QoL when their scores were analysed continuously. The biomedical (health approach failed to achieve significance when the traditional dichotomous cut-off point for successfully aged (full health, or not (less than full health, was used. In multiple regression analyses of the relative predictive ability of each approach, only the psychological approach (perceived self-efficacy and optimism retained significance. Conclusion Only the psychological approach to successful ageing independently predicted QoL at follow-up. Successful ageing is not only about the maintenance of health, but about maximising one's psychological resources, namely self-efficacy and resilience. Increasing use of preventive care, better medical management of morbidity, and changing lifestyles in older people may have beneficial effects on health and longevity, but may not improve their QoL. Adding years to life and life to years may require two distinct and different approaches, one physical and the other psychological. Follow-up health status, number of supporters and social activities, and self-rated active ageing

Predictive Distribution of the Dirichlet Mixture Model by the Local Variational Inference Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ma, Zhanyu; Leijon, Arne; Tan, Zheng-Hua

2014-01-01

the predictive likelihood of the new upcoming data, especially when the amount of training data is small. The Bayesian estimation of a Dirichlet mixture model (DMM) is, in general, not analytically tractable. In our previous work, we have proposed a global variational inference-based method for approximately...... calculating the posterior distributions of the parameters in the DMM analytically. In this paper, we extend our previous study for the DMM and propose an algorithm to calculate the predictive distribution of the DMM with the local variational inference (LVI) method. The true predictive distribution of the DMM...... is analytically intractable. By considering the concave property of the multivariate inverse beta function, we introduce an upper-bound to the true predictive distribution. As the global minimum of this upper-bound exists, the problem is reduced to seek an approximation to the true predictive distribution...

Predicting Success Study Using Students GPA Category

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Awan Setiawan

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract. Maintaining student graduation rates are the main tasks of a University. High rates of student graduation and the quality of graduates is a success indicator of a university, which will have an impact on public confidence as stakeholders of higher education and the National Accreditation Board as a regulator (government. Making predictions of student graduation and determine the factors that hinders will be a valuable input for University. Data mining system facilitates the University to create the segmentation of students’ performance and prediction of their graduation. Segmentation of student by their performance can be classified in a quadrant chart is divided into 4 segments based on grade point average and the growth rate of students performance index per semester. Standard methodology in data mining i.e CRISP-DM (Cross Industry Standard Procedure for Data Mining will be implemented in this research. Making predictions, graduation can be done through the modeling process by utilizing the college database. Some algorithms such as C5, C & R Tree, CHAID, and Logistic Regression tested in order to find the best model. This research utilizes student performance data for several classes. Parameters used in addition to GPA also included the master's students data are expected to build the student profile data. The outcome of the study is the student category based on their study performance and prediction of graduation. Based on this prediction, the  university may recommend actions to be taken to improve the student  achievement index and graduation rates.Keywords: graduation, segmentation, quadrant GPA, data mining, modeling algorithms

Predicting Success Study Using Students GPA Category

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Awan Setiawan

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract. Maintaining student graduation rates are the main tasks of a University. High rates of student graduation and the quality of graduates is a success indicator of a university, which will have an impact on public confidence as stakeholders of higher education and the National Accreditation Board as a regulator (government. Making predictions of student graduation and determine the factors that hinders will be a valuable input for University. Data mining system facilitates the University to create the segmentation of students’ performance and prediction of their graduation. Segmentation of student by their performance can be classified in a quadrant chart is divided into 4 segments based on grade point average and the growth rate of students performance index per semester. Standard methodology in data mining i.e CRISP-DM (Cross Industry Standard Procedure for Data Mining will be implemented in this research. Making predictions, graduation can be done through the modeling process by utilizing the college database. Some algorithms such as C5, C & R Tree, CHAID, and Logistic Regression tested in order to find the best model. This research utilizes student performance data for several classes. Parameters used in addition to GPA also included the master's students data are expected to build the student profile data. The outcome of the study is the student category based on their study performance and prediction of graduation. Based on this prediction, the university may recommend actions to be taken to improve the student achievement index and graduation rates. Keywords: graduation, segmentation, quadrant GPA, data mining, modeling algorithms

Using an admissions exam to predict student success in an ADN program.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallagher, P A; Bomba, C; Crane, L R

2001-01-01

Nursing faculty strive to admit students who are likely to successfully complete the nursing curriculum and pass NCLEX-RN. The high cost of academic preparation and the nursing shortage make this selection process even more critical. The authors discuss how one community college nursing program examined academic achievement measures to determine how well they predicted student success. Results provided faculty with useful data to improve the success and retention of nursing.

Surface Temperature Variation Prediction Model Using Real-Time Weather Forecasts

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Karimi, M.; Vant-Hull, B.; Nazari, R.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2015-12-01

Combination of climate change and urbanization are heating up cities and putting the lives of millions of people in danger. More than half of the world's total population resides in cities and urban centers. Cities are experiencing urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Hotter days are associated with serious health impacts, heart attaches and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Densely populated cities like Manhattan, New York can be affected by UHI impact much more than less populated cities. Even though many studies have been focused on the impact of UHI and temperature changes between urban and rural air temperature, not many look at the temperature variations within a city. These studies mostly use remote sensing data or typical measurements collected by local meteorological station networks. Local meteorological measurements only have local coverage and cannot be used to study the impact of UHI in a city and remote sensing data such as MODIS, LANDSAT and ASTER have with very low resolution which cannot be used for the purpose of this study. Therefore, predicting surface temperature in urban cities using weather data can be useful.Three months of Field campaign in Manhattan were used to measure spatial and temporal temperature variations within an urban setting by placing 10 fixed sensors deployed to measure temperature, relative humidity and sunlight. Fixed instrument shelters containing relative humidity, temperature and illumination sensors were mounted on lampposts in ten different locations in Manhattan (Vant-Hull et al, 2014). The shelters were fixed 3-4 meters above the ground for the period of three months from June 23 to September 20th of 2013 making measurements with the interval of 3 minutes. These high resolution temperature measurements and three months of weather data were used to predict temperature variability from weather forecasts. This study shows that the amplitude of spatial and temporal variation in temperature for each day can be predicted

RAPID COMMUNICATION: Improving prediction accuracy of GPS satellite clocks with periodic variation behaviour

Science.gov (United States)

Heo, Youn Jeong; Cho, Jeongho; Heo, Moon Beom

2010-07-01

The broadcast ephemeris and IGS ultra-rapid predicted (IGU-P) products are primarily available for use in real-time GPS applications. The IGU orbit precision has been remarkably improved since late 2007, but its clock products have not shown acceptably high-quality prediction performance. One reason for this fact is that satellite atomic clocks in space can be easily influenced by various factors such as temperature and environment and this leads to complicated aspects like periodic variations, which are not sufficiently described by conventional models. A more reliable prediction model is thus proposed in this paper in order to be utilized particularly in describing the periodic variation behaviour satisfactorily. The proposed prediction model for satellite clocks adds cyclic terms to overcome the periodic effects and adopts delay coordinate embedding, which offers the possibility of accessing linear or nonlinear coupling characteristics like satellite behaviour. The simulation results have shown that the proposed prediction model outperforms the IGU-P solutions at least on a daily basis.

Prediction of successful trial of labour in patients with a previous caesarean section

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaheen, N.; Khalil, S.; Iftikhar, P.

2014-01-01

Objective: To determine the prediction rate of success in trial of labour after one previous caesarean section. Methods: The cross-sectional study was conducted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Cantonment General Hospital, Rawalpindi, from January 1, 2012 to January 31, 2013, and comprised women with one previous Caesarean section and with single alive foetus at 37-41 weeks of gestation. Women with more than one Caesarean section, unknown site of uterine scar, bony pelvic deformity, placenta previa, intra-uterine growth restriction, deep transverse arrest in previous labour and non-reassuring foetal status at the time of admission were excluded. Intrapartum risk assessment included Bishop score at admission, rate of cervical dilatation and scar tenderness. SPSS 21 was used for statistical analysis. Results: Out of a total of 95 women, the trial was successful in 68 (71.6%). Estimated foetal weight and number of prior vaginal deliveries had a high predictive value for successful trial of labour after Caesarean section. Estimated foetal weight had an odds ratio of 0.46 (p<0.001), while number of prior vaginal deliveries had an odds ratio of 0.85 with (p=0.010). Other factors found to be predictive of successful trial included Bishop score at the time of admission (p<0.037) and rate of cervical dilatation in the first stage of labour (p<0.021). Conclusion: History of prior vaginal deliveries, higher Bishop score at the time of admission, rapid rate of cervical dilatation and lower estimated foetal weight were predictive of a successful trial of labour after Caesarean section. (author)

Humor Ability Reveals Intelligence, Predicts Mating Success, and Is Higher in Males

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Greengross, Gil; Miller, Geoffrey

2011-01-01

A good sense of humor is sexually attractive, perhaps because it reveals intelligence, creativity, and other "good genes" or "good parent" traits. If so, intelligence should predict humor production ability, which in turn should predict mating success. In this study, 400 university students (200 men and 200 women) completed…

Disentangling the Predictive Validity of High School Grades for Academic Success in University

Science.gov (United States)

Vulperhorst, Jonne; Lutz, Christel; de Kleijn, Renske; van Tartwijk, Jan

2018-01-01

To refine selective admission models, we investigate which measure of prior achievement has the best predictive validity for academic success in university. We compare the predictive validity of three core high school subjects to the predictive validity of high school grade point average (GPA) for academic achievement in a liberal arts university…

Tensor-optimized antisymmetrized molecular dynamics as a successive variational method in nuclear many-body system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Myo, Takayuki, E-mail: takayuki.myo@oit.ac.jp [General Education, Faculty of Engineering, Osaka Institute of Technology, Osaka 535-8585 (Japan); Research Center for Nuclear Physics (RCNP), Osaka University, Ibaraki 567-0047 (Japan); Toki, Hiroshi [Research Center for Nuclear Physics (RCNP), Osaka University, Ibaraki 567-0047 (Japan); Ikeda, Kiyomi [RIKEN Nishina Center, Wako, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Horiuchi, Hisashi [Research Center for Nuclear Physics (RCNP), Osaka University, Ibaraki 567-0047 (Japan); Suhara, Tadahiro [Matsue College of Technology, Matsue 690-8518 (Japan)

2017-06-10

We study the tensor-optimized antisymmetrized molecular dynamics (TOAMD) as a successive variational method in many-body systems with strong interaction for nuclei. In TOAMD, the correlation functions for the tensor force and the short-range repulsion and their multiples are operated to the AMD state as the variational wave function. The total wave function is expressed as the sum of all the components and the variational space can be increased successively with the multiple correlation functions to achieve convergence. All the necessary matrix elements of many-body operators, consisting of the multiple correlation functions and the Hamiltonian, are expressed analytically using the Gaussian integral formula. In this paper we show the results of TOAMD with up to the double products of the correlation functions for the s-shell nuclei, {sup 3}H and {sup 4}He, using the nucleon–nucleon interaction AV8′. It is found that the energies and Hamiltonian components of two nuclei converge rapidly with respect to the multiple of correlation functions. This result indicates the efficiency of TOAMD for the power series expansion in terms of the tensor and short-range correlation functions.

Threat-related selective attention predicts treatment success in childhood anxiety disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Legerstee, Jeroen S; Tulen, Joke H M; Kallen, Victor L; Dieleman, Gwen C; Treffers, Philip D A; Verhulst, Frank C; Utens, Elisabeth M W J

2009-02-01

The present study examined whether threat-related selective attention was predictive of treatment success in children with anxiety disorders and whether age moderated this association. Specific components of selective attention were examined in treatment responders and nonresponders. Participants consisted of 131 children with anxiety disorders (aged 8-16 years), who received standardized cognitive-behavioral therapy. At pretreatment, a pictorial dot-probe task was administered to assess selective attention. Both at pretreatment and posttreatment, diagnostic status of the children was evaluated with a semistructured clinical interview (the Anxiety Disorders Interview Schedule for Children). Selective attention for severely threatening pictures at pretreatment assessment was predictive of treatment success. Examination of the specific components of selective attention revealed that nonresponders showed difficulties to disengage their attention away from severe threat. Treatment responders showed a tendency not to engage their attention toward severe threat. Age was not associated with selective attention and treatment success. Threat-related selective attention is a significant predictor of treatment success in children with anxiety disorders. Clinically anxious children with difficulties disengaging their attention away from severe threat profit less from cognitive-behavioral therapy. For these children, additional training focused on learning to disengage attention away from anxiety-arousing stimuli may be beneficial.

Mapping and predictive variations of soil bacterial richness across France.

Science.gov (United States)

Terrat, Sébastien; Horrigue, Walid; Dequiedt, Samuel; Saby, Nicolas P A; Lelièvre, Mélanie; Nowak, Virginie; Tripied, Julie; Régnier, Tiffanie; Jolivet, Claudy; Arrouays, Dominique; Wincker, Patrick; Cruaud, Corinne; Karimi, Battle; Bispo, Antonio; Maron, Pierre Alain; Chemidlin Prévost-Bouré, Nicolas; Ranjard, Lionel

2017-01-01

Although numerous studies have demonstrated the key role of bacterial diversity in soil functions and ecosystem services, little is known about the variations and determinants of such diversity on a nationwide scale. The overall objectives of this study were i) to describe the bacterial taxonomic richness variations across France, ii) to identify the ecological processes (i.e. selection by the environment and dispersal limitation) influencing this distribution, and iii) to develop a statistical predictive model of soil bacterial richness. We used the French Soil Quality Monitoring Network (RMQS), which covers all of France with 2,173 sites. The soil bacterial richness (i.e. OTU number) was determined by pyrosequencing 16S rRNA genes and related to the soil characteristics, climatic conditions, geomorphology, land use and space. Mapping of bacterial richness revealed a heterogeneous spatial distribution, structured into patches of about 111km, where the main drivers were the soil physico-chemical properties (18% of explained variance), the spatial descriptors (5.25%, 1.89% and 1.02% for the fine, medium and coarse scales, respectively), and the land use (1.4%). Based on these drivers, a predictive model was developed, which allows a good prediction of the bacterial richness (R2adj of 0.56) and provides a reference value for a given pedoclimatic condition.

Predicting Student Success in College: What Does the Research Say?

Science.gov (United States)

Merante, Joseph A.

1983-01-01

Reviews various methods for predicting college success: correlation of students' high school grades, achievement test scores, and class rank with characteristics of the institution to be attended; examination of demographic variables such as age, sex, birth order, income, parents' education, religious and ethnic background, and geographic factors;…

Improved therapy-success prediction with GSS estimated from clinical HIV-1 sequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Pironti, Alejandro; Pfeifer, Nico; Kaiser, Rolf; Walter, Hauke; Lengauer, Thomas

2014-01-01

Rules-based HIV-1 drug-resistance interpretation (DRI) systems disregard many amino-acid positions of the drug's target protein. The aims of this study are (1) the development of a drug-resistance interpretation system that is based on HIV-1 sequences from clinical practice rather than hard-to-get phenotypes, and (2) the assessment of the benefit of taking all available amino-acid positions into account for DRI. A dataset containing 34,934 therapy-naïve and 30,520 drug-exposed HIV-1 pol sequences with treatment history was extracted from the EuResist database and the Los Alamos National Laboratory database. 2,550 therapy-change-episode baseline sequences (TCEB) were assigned to test set A. Test set B contains 1,084 TCEB from the HIVdb TCE repository. Sequences from patients absent in the test sets were used to train three linear support vector machines to produce scores that predict drug exposure pertaining to each of 20 antiretrovirals: the first one uses the full amino-acid sequences (DEfull), the second one only considers IAS drug-resistance positions (DEonlyIAS), and the third one disregards IAS drug-resistance positions (DEnoIAS). For performance comparison, test sets A and B were evaluated with DEfull, DEnoIAS, DEonlyIAS, geno2pheno[resistance], HIVdb, ANRS, HIV-GRADE, and REGA. Clinically-validated cut-offs were used to convert the continuous output of the first four methods into susceptible-intermediate-resistant (SIR) predictions. With each method, a genetic susceptibility score (GSS) was calculated for each therapy episode in each test set by converting the SIR prediction for its compounds to integer: S=2, I=1, and R=0. The GSS were used to predict therapy success as defined by the EuResist standard datum definition. Statistical significance was assessed using a Wilcoxon signed-rank test. A comparison of the therapy-success prediction performances among the different interpretation systems for test set A can be found in Table 1, while those for test set

Prediction of Success of External Cephalic Version after 36 Weeks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kok, Marjolein; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; van der Post, Joris A. M.; Mol, Ben W. J.

2011-01-01

We aimed to develop a predictive model for the chance of a successful external cephalic version (ECV). We performed a prospective cohort study of women with a singleton fetus in breech presentation with a gestational age of 36 weeks or more. Data on parity, maternal age, body mass index, ethnicity,

How Predictive Analytics and Choice Architecture Can Improve Student Success

Science.gov (United States)

Denley, Tristan

2014-01-01

This article explores the challenges that students face in navigating the curricular structure of post-secondary degree programs, and how predictive analytics and choice architecture can play a role. It examines Degree Compass, a course recommendation system that successfully pairs current students with the courses that best fit their talents and…

Sperm quality but not relatedness predicts sperm competition success in threespine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus).

Science.gov (United States)

Mehlis, Marion; Rahn, Anna K; Bakker, Theo C M

2015-04-26

Mating between close relatives often leads to a reduction of an individual's fitness, due to an increased expression of deleterious alleles. Thus, in many animal taxa pre- as well as postcopulatory inbreeding avoidance mechanisms have evolved. An increased risk of inbreeding and hence a loss of genetic variation may occur during founder events as in most cases only few individuals establish a new population. The threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) is a small externally fertilizing fish species subject to strong sperm competition. Sticklebacks inhabit both marine and freshwater environments and anadromous populations have repeatedly established new genetically less diverse freshwater populations. Previous studies showed that anadromous sticklebacks strongly suffer from inbreeding depression and when given the choice females prefer to mate with unrelated males. The present study aimed to address whether there exists a postcopulatory inbreeding avoidance mechanism solely based on sperm-egg interactions in sperm competition experiments. We used F1 individuals that originated either from a large, genetically heterogeneous anadromous population or from a small, genetically less diverse freshwater population. For each population, eggs of two different females were in vitro fertilized by the same two males' sperm in a paired study design. In the main experiment one male was the female's full-sib brother and in the control experiment all individuals were unrelated. The results revealed that fertilization success was independent of relatedness in both populations suggesting a general lack of a postcopulatory inbreeding avoidance mechanism. Instead, male quality (i.e. sperm morphology) predicted paternity success during competitive fertilization trials. In sticklebacks, there is no evidence for postcopulatory inbreeding avoidance. Sperm morphology predicted paternity instead, thus sperm quality traits are under strong sexual selection, presumably driven by the

Predicting Variations in Math Performancein Four Countries Using TIMSS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Koretz

2001-09-01

Full Text Available Although international comparisons of average student performance are a staple of U.S. educational debate, little attention has been paid to cross-national differences in the variability of performance. It is often assumed that the performance of U.S. students is unusually variable or that the distribution of U.S. scores is left-skewed – that is, that it has an unusually long ‘tail' of low-scoring students – but data from international studies are rarely brought to bear on these questions. This study used data from the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS to compare the variability of performance in the U.S., Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Korea, and Japan; investigate how this performance variation is distributed within and between classrooms; and explore how well background variables predict performance at both levels. TIMSS shows that the U.S. is not anomalous in terms of the amount, distribution, or prediction of performance variation. Nonetheless, some striking differences appear between countries that are potentially important for both research and policy. In the U.S., Germany, Hong Kong, and Australia, between 42 and 47 percent of score variance was between classrooms. At the other extreme, Japan and Korea both had less than 10 percent of score variance between classrooms. Two-level models (student and classroom were used to explore the prediction of performance by social background variables in four of these countries (the U.S., Hong Kong, France, and Korea. The final models included only a few variables; TIMSS lacked some important background variables, such as income, and other variables were dropped either because of problems revealed by exploratory data analysis or because of a lack of significance in the models. In all four countries, these sparse models predicted most of the between-classroom score variance (from 59 to 94 percent but very little of the within-classroom variance. Korea was the only

Predicting Success in an Online Course Using Expectancies, Values, and Typical Mode of Instruction

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmerman, Whitney Alicia

2017-01-01

Expectancies of success and values were used to predict success in an online undergraduate-level introductory statistics course. Students who identified as primarily face-to-face learners were compared to students who identified as primarily online learners. Expectancy value theory served as a model. Expectancies of success were operationalized as…

Decomposing variation in male reproductive success: age-specific variances and covariances through extra-pair and within-pair reproduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Lebigre, Christophe; Arcese, Peter; Reid, Jane M

2013-07-01

Age-specific variances and covariances in reproductive success shape the total variance in lifetime reproductive success (LRS), age-specific opportunities for selection, and population demographic variance and effective size. Age-specific (co)variances in reproductive success achieved through different reproductive routes must therefore be quantified to predict population, phenotypic and evolutionary dynamics in age-structured populations. While numerous studies have quantified age-specific variation in mean reproductive success, age-specific variances and covariances in reproductive success, and the contributions of different reproductive routes to these (co)variances, have not been comprehensively quantified in natural populations. We applied 'additive' and 'independent' methods of variance decomposition to complete data describing apparent (social) and realised (genetic) age-specific reproductive success across 11 cohorts of socially monogamous but genetically polygynandrous song sparrows (Melospiza melodia). We thereby quantified age-specific (co)variances in male within-pair and extra-pair reproductive success (WPRS and EPRS) and the contributions of these (co)variances to the total variances in age-specific reproductive success and LRS. 'Additive' decomposition showed that within-age and among-age (co)variances in WPRS across males aged 2-4 years contributed most to the total variance in LRS. Age-specific (co)variances in EPRS contributed relatively little. However, extra-pair reproduction altered age-specific variances in reproductive success relative to the social mating system, and hence altered the relative contributions of age-specific reproductive success to the total variance in LRS. 'Independent' decomposition showed that the (co)variances in age-specific WPRS, EPRS and total reproductive success, and the resulting opportunities for selection, varied substantially across males that survived to each age. Furthermore, extra-pair reproduction increased

Threat-Related Selective Attention Predicts Treatment Success in Childhood Anxiety Disorders

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.S. Legerstee (Jeroen); J.H.M. Tulen (Joke); V.L. Kallen (Victor); G.C. Dieleman (Gwen); P.D.A. Treffers (Philip); F.C. Verhulst (Frank); E.M.W.J. Utens (Elisabeth)

2009-01-01

textabstractAbstract OBJECTIVE: The present study examined whether threat-related selective attention was predictive of treatment success in children with anxiety disorders and whether age moderated this association. Specific components of selective attention were examined in treatment responders

Threat-related selective attention predicts treatment success in childhood anxiety disorders

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Legerstee, Jeroen S.; Tulen, Joke H. M.; Kallen, Victor L.; Dieleman, Gwen C.; Treffers, Philip D. A.; Verhulst, Frank C.; Utens, Elisabeth M. W. J.

2009-01-01

The present study examined whether threat-related selective attention was predictive of treatment success in children with anxiety disorders and whether age moderated this association. Specific components of selective attention were examined in treatment responders and nonresponders. Participants

Individual differences in episodic memory abilities predict successful prospective memory output monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter Ball, B; Pitães, Margarida; Brewer, Gene A

2018-02-07

Output monitoring refers to memory for one's previously completed actions. In the context of prospective memory (PM) (e.g., remembering to take medication), failures of output monitoring can result in repetitions and omissions of planned actions (e.g., over- or under-medication). To be successful in output monitoring paradigms, participants must flexibly control attention to detect PM cues as well as engage controlled retrieval of previous actions whenever a particular cue is encountered. The current study examined individual differences in output monitoring abilities in a group of younger adults differing in attention control (AC) and episodic memory (EM) abilities. The results showed that AC ability uniquely predicted successful cue detection on the first presentation, whereas EM ability uniquely predicted successful output monitoring on the second presentation. The current study highlights the importance of examining external correlates of PM abilities and contributes to the growing body of research on individual differences in PM.

Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

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Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-10-01

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33%) of the harvested area of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop--rice and wheat yields were the most predictable, followed by soybean and maize. The reasons for variation in the reliability of the estimates included the differences in crop sensitivity to the climate and the technology used by the crop-producing regions. Our findings reveal that the use of seasonal climatic forecasts to predict crop failures will be useful for monitoring global food production and will encourage the adaptation of food systems toclimatic extremes.

T2 map signal variation predicts symptomatic osteoarthritis progression: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

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Zhong, Haoti; Miller, David J. [The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Electrical Engineering, University Park, PA (United States); Urish, Kenneth L. [Magee Womens Hospital of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, The Bone and Joint Center, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

2016-07-15

The aim of this work is to use quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to identify patients at risk for symptomatic osteoarthritis (OA) progression. We hypothesized that classification of signal variation on T2 maps might predict symptomatic OA progression. Patients were selected from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), a prospective cohort. Two groups were identified: a symptomatic OA progression group and a control group. At baseline, both groups were asymptomatic (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis [WOMAC] pain score total <10) with no radiographic evidence of OA (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL] score ≤ 1). The OA progression group (n = 103) had a change in total WOMAC score greater than 10 by the 3-year follow-up. The control group (n = 79) remained asymptomatic, with a change in total WOMAC score less than 10 at the 3-year follow-up. A classifier was designed to predict OA progression in an independent population based on T2 map cartilage signal variation. The classifier was designed using a nearest neighbor classification based on a Gaussian Mixture Model log-likelihood fit of T2 map cartilage voxel intensities. The use of T2 map signal variation to predict symptomatic OA progression in asymptomatic individuals achieved a specificity of 89.3 %, a sensitivity of 77.2 %, and an overall accuracy rate of 84.2 %. T2 map signal variation can predict symptomatic knee OA progression in asymptomatic individuals, serving as a possible early OA imaging biomarker. (orig.)

Ecological and evolutionary variation in community nitrogen use traits during tropical dry forest secondary succession.

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Bhaskar, Radika; Porder, Stephen; Balvanera, Patricia; Edwards, Erika J

2016-05-01

We assessed the role of ecological and evolutionary processes in driving variation in leaf and litter traits related to nitrogen (N) use among tropical dry forest trees in old-growth and secondary stands in western Mexico. Our expectation was that legumes (Fabaceae), a dominant component of the regional flora, would have consistently high leaf N and therefore structure phylogenetic variation in N-related traits. We also expected ecological selection during succession for differences in nitrogen use strategies, and corresponding shifts in legume abundance. We used phylogenetic analyses to test for trait conservatism in foliar and litter N, C:N, and N resorption. We also evaluated differences in N-related traits between old-growth and secondary forests. We found a weak phylogenetic signal for all traits, partly explained by wide variation within legumes. Across taxa we observed a positive relationship between leaf and litter N, but no shift in resorption strategies along the successional gradient. Despite species turnover, N-resorption, and N-related traits showed little change across succession, suggesting that, at least for these traits, secondary forests rapidly recover ecosystem function. Collectively, our results also suggest that legumes should not be considered a single functional group from a biogeochemical perspective.

Mapping and predictive variations of soil bacterial richness across France.

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Sébastien Terrat

Full Text Available Although numerous studies have demonstrated the key role of bacterial diversity in soil functions and ecosystem services, little is known about the variations and determinants of such diversity on a nationwide scale. The overall objectives of this study were i to describe the bacterial taxonomic richness variations across France, ii to identify the ecological processes (i.e. selection by the environment and dispersal limitation influencing this distribution, and iii to develop a statistical predictive model of soil bacterial richness. We used the French Soil Quality Monitoring Network (RMQS, which covers all of France with 2,173 sites. The soil bacterial richness (i.e. OTU number was determined by pyrosequencing 16S rRNA genes and related to the soil characteristics, climatic conditions, geomorphology, land use and space. Mapping of bacterial richness revealed a heterogeneous spatial distribution, structured into patches of about 111km, where the main drivers were the soil physico-chemical properties (18% of explained variance, the spatial descriptors (5.25%, 1.89% and 1.02% for the fine, medium and coarse scales, respectively, and the land use (1.4%. Based on these drivers, a predictive model was developed, which allows a good prediction of the bacterial richness (R2adj of 0.56 and provides a reference value for a given pedoclimatic condition.

Predicting Student Success from the "LASSI for Learning Online" (LLO)

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Carson, Andrew D.

2011-01-01

This study tested the degree to which subscales of the "LASSI for Learning Online" (LLO) (Weinstein & Palmer, 2006), a measure of learning strategies and study skills, predict student success in the form of passing grades, using a combination of large training (N = 4,409) and cross-validation (N = 3,203) samples. Discriminant function analysis…

Prediction of shot success for basketball free throws: visual search strategy.

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Uchida, Yusuke; Mizuguchi, Nobuaki; Honda, Masaaki; Kanosue, Kazuyuki

2014-01-01

In ball games, players have to pay close attention to visual information in order to predict the movements of both the opponents and the ball. Previous studies have indicated that players primarily utilise cues concerning the ball and opponents' body motion. The information acquired must be effective for observing players to select the subsequent action. The present study evaluated the effects of changes in the video replay speed on the spatial visual search strategy and ability to predict free throw success. We compared eye movements made while observing a basketball free throw by novices and experienced basketball players. Correct response rates were close to chance (50%) at all video speeds for the novices. The correct response rate of experienced players was significantly above chance (and significantly above that of the novices) at the normal speed, but was not different from chance at both slow and fast speeds. Experienced players gazed more on the lower part of the player's body when viewing a normal speed video than the novices. The players likely detected critical visual information to predict shot success by properly moving their gaze according to the shooter's movements. This pattern did not change when the video speed was decreased, but changed when it was increased. These findings suggest that temporal information is important for predicting action outcomes and that such outcomes are sensitive to video speed.

Establishing Decision Trees for Predicting Successful Postpyloric Nasoenteric Tube Placement in Critically Ill Patients.

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Chen, Weisheng; Sun, Cheng; Wei, Ru; Zhang, Yanlin; Ye, Heng; Chi, Ruibin; Zhang, Yichen; Hu, Bei; Lv, Bo; Chen, Lifang; Zhang, Xiunong; Lan, Huilan; Chen, Chunbo

2018-01-01

Despite the use of prokinetic agents, the overall success rate for postpyloric placement via a self-propelled spiral nasoenteric tube is quite low. This retrospective study was conducted in the intensive care units of 11 university hospitals from 2006 to 2016 among adult patients who underwent self-propelled spiral nasoenteric tube insertion. Success was defined as postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement confirmed by abdominal x-ray scan 24 hours after tube insertion. Chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID), simple classification and regression trees (SimpleCart), and J48 methodologies were used to develop decision tree models, and multiple logistic regression (LR) methodology was used to develop an LR model for predicting successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of these models. Successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement was confirmed in 427 of 939 patients enrolled. For predicting successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement, the performance of the 3 decision trees was similar in terms of the AUCs: 0.715 for the CHAID model, 0.682 for the SimpleCart model, and 0.671 for the J48 model. The AUC of the LR model was 0.729, which outperformed the J48 model. Both the CHAID and LR models achieved an acceptable discrimination for predicting successful postpyloric nasoenteric tube placement and were useful for intensivists in the setting of self-propelled spiral nasoenteric tube insertion. © 2016 American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition.

Predicting athletic success motivation using mental skin and emotional intelligence and its components in male athletes.

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Kajbafnezhad, H; Ahadi, H; Heidarie, A; Askari, P; Enayati, M

2012-10-01

The aim of this study was to predict athletic success motivation by mental skills, emotional intelligence and its components. The research sample consisted of 153 male athletes who were selected through random multistage sampling. The subjects completed the Mental Skills Questionnaire, Bar-On Emotional Intelligence questionnaire and the perception of sport success questionnaire. Data were analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficient and multiple regressions. Regression analysis shows that between the two variables of mental skill and emotional intelligence, mental skill is the best predictor for athletic success motivation and has a better ability to predict the success rate of the participants. Regression analysis results showed that among all the components of emotional intelligence, self-respect had a significantly higher ability to predict athletic success motivation. The use of psychological skills and emotional intelligence as an mediating and regulating factor and organizer cause leads to improved performance and can not only can to help athletes in making suitable and effective decisions for reaching a desired goal.

Prediction of Navigation Satellite Clock Bias Considering Clock's Stochastic Variation Behavior with Robust Least Square Collocation

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WANG Yupu

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In order to better express the characteristic of satellite clock bias (SCB and further improve its prediction precision, a new SCB prediction model is proposed, which can take the physical feature, cyclic variation and stochastic variation behaviors of the space-borne atomic clock into consideration by using a robust least square collocation (LSC method. The proposed model firstly uses a quadratic polynomial model with periodic terms to fit and abstract the trend term and cyclic terms of SCB. Then for the residual stochastic variation part and possible gross errors hidden in SCB data, the model employs a robust LSC method to process them. The covariance function of the LSC is determined by selecting an empirical function and combining SCB prediction tests. Using the final precise IGS SCB products to conduct prediction tests, the results show that the proposed model can get better prediction performance. Specifically, the results' prediction accuracy can enhance 0.457 ns and 0.948 ns respectively, and the corresponding prediction stability can improve 0.445 ns and 1.233 ns, compared with the results of quadratic polynomial model and grey model. In addition, the results also show that the proposed covariance function corresponding to the new model is reasonable.

Intraspecific morphological and genetic variation of common species predicts ranges of threatened ones

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Fuller, Trevon L.; Thomassen, Henri A.; Peralvo, Manuel; Buermann, Wolfgang; Milá, Borja; Kieswetter, Charles M.; Jarrín-V, Pablo; Devitt, Susan E. Cameron; Mason, Eliza; Schweizer, Rena M.; Schlunegger, Jasmin; Chan, Janice; Wang, Ophelia; Schneider, Christopher J.; Pollinger, John P.; Saatchi, Sassan; Graham, Catherine H.; Wayne, Robert K.; Smith, Thomas B.

2013-01-01

Predicting where threatened species occur is useful for making informed conservation decisions. However, because they are usually rare, surveying threatened species is often expensive and time intensive. Here, we show how regions where common species exhibit high genetic and morphological divergence among populations can be used to predict the occurrence of species of conservation concern. Intraspecific variation of common species of birds, bats and frogs from Ecuador were found to be a significantly better predictor for the occurrence of threatened species than suites of environmental variables or the occurrence of amphibians and birds. Fully 93 per cent of the threatened species analysed had their range adequately represented by the geographical distribution of the morphological and genetic variation found in seven common species. Both higher numbers of threatened species and greater genetic and morphological variation of common species occurred along elevation gradients. Higher levels of intraspecific divergence may be the result of disruptive selection and/or introgression along gradients. We suggest that collecting data on genetic and morphological variation in common species can be a cost effective tool for conservation planning, and that future biodiversity inventories include surveying genetic and morphological data of common species whenever feasible. PMID:23595273

Predicting Academic Success from Academic Motivation and Learning Approaches in Classroom Teaching Students

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Çetin, Baris

2015-01-01

Our aim was to determine whether learning approaches and academic motivation together predict academic success of classroom teaching students. The sample of the study included 536 students (386 female, 150 male) studying at the Classroom Teaching Division of Canakkale 18 Mart University. Our research was designed as a prediction study. Data was…

Long-term success and failure with SG is predictable by 3 months: a multivariate model using simple office markers.

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Cottam, Austin; Billing, Josiah; Cottam, Daniel; Billing, Peter; Cottam, Samuel; Zaveri, Hinali; Surve, Amit

2017-08-01

Despite being the most common surgery in the United States, little is known about predicting weight loss success and failure with sleeve gastrectomy (SG). Papers that have been published are inconclusive. We decided to use multivariate analysis from 2 practices to design a model to predict weight loss outcomes using data widely available to any surgical practice at 3 months to determine weight loss outcomes at 1 year. Two private practices in the United States. A retrospective review of 613 patients from 2 bariatric institutions were included in this study. Co-morbidities and other preoperative characteristics were gathered, and %EWL was calculated for 1, 3, and 12 months. Excess weight loss (%EWL)failure. Multiple variate analysis was used to find factors that affect %EWL at 12 months. Preoperative sleep apnea, preoperative diabetes, %EWL at 1 month, and %EWL at 3 months all affect %EWL at 1 year. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value of our model was 72% and 91%, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 91%, respectively. One-year results of the SG can be predicted by diabetes, sleep apnea, and weight loss velocity at 3 months postoperatively. This can help surgeons direct surgical or medical interventions for patients at 3 months rather than at 1 year or beyond. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive Score Card in Lumbar Disc Herniation: Is It Reflective of Patient Surgical Success after Discectomy?

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Parisa Azimi

Full Text Available Does the Finneson-Cooper score reflect the true value of predicting surgical success before discectomy? The aim of this study was to identify reliable predictors for surgical success two year after surgery for patients with LDH. Prospective analysis of 154 patients with LDH who underwent single-level lumbar discectomy was performed. Pre- and post-surgical success was assessed by the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI over a 2-year period. The Finneson-Cooper score also was used for evaluation of the clinical results. Using the ODI, surgical success was defined as a 30% (or more improvement on the ODI score from the baseline. The ODI was considered the gold standard in this study. Finally, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive power of the Finneson-Cooper score in predicting surgical success were calculated. The mean age of the patients was 49.6 (SD = 9.3 years and 47.4% were male. Significant improvement from the pre- to post-operative ODI scores was observed (P < 0.001. Post-surgical success was 76.0% (n = 117. The patients' rating on surgical success assessments by the ODI discriminated well between sub-groups of patients who differed with respect to the Finneson-Cooper score. Regarding patients' surgical success, the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the Finneson-Cooper ratings correlated with success rate. The findings indicated that the Finneson-Cooper score was reflective of surgical success before discectomy.

Predicting Educational Success and Attrition in Problem-Based Learning: Do First Impressions Count?

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Wijnia, Lisette; Loyens, Sofie M. M.; Derous, Eva; Koendjie, Nitaasha S.; Schmidt, Henk G.

2014-01-01

This study examines whether tutors (N?=?15) in a problem-based learning curriculum were able to predict students' success in their first year and their entire bachelor programme. Tutors were asked to rate each student in their tutorial group in terms of the chance that this student would successfully finish their first year and the entire…

Anatomic variation and orgasm: Could variations in anatomy explain differences in orgasmic success?

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Emhardt, E; Siegel, J; Hoffman, L

2016-07-01

Though the public consciousness is typically focused on factors such as psychology, penis size, and the presence of the "G-spot," there are other anatomical and neuro-anatomic differences that could play an equal, or more important, role in the frequency and intensity of orgasms. Discovering these variations could direct further medical or procedural management to improve sexual satisfaction. The aim of this study is to review the available literature of anatomical sexual variation and to explain why this variation may predispose some patients toward a particular sexual experience. In this review, we explored the available literature on sexual anatomy and neuro-anatomy. We used PubMed and OVID Medline for search terms, including orgasm, penile size variation, clitoral variation, Grafenberg spot, and benefits of orgasm. First we review the basic anatomy and innervation of the reproductive organs. Then we describe several anatomical variations that likely play a superior role to popular known variation (penis size, presence of g-spot, etc). For males, the delicate play between the parasympathetic and sympathetic nervous systems is vital to achieve orgasm. For females, the autonomic component is more complex. The clitoris is the primary anatomical feature for female orgasm, including its migration toward the anterior vaginal wall. In conclusions, orgasms are complex phenomena involving psychological, physiological, and anatomic variation. While these variations predispose people to certain sexual function, future research should explore how to surgically or medically alter these. Clin. Anat. 29:665-672, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Student nurse selection and predictability of academic success: The Multiple Mini Interview project.

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Gale, Julia; Ooms, Ann; Grant, Robert; Paget, Kris; Marks-Maran, Di

2016-05-01

With recent reports of public enquiries into failure to care, universities are under pressure to ensure that candidates selected for undergraduate nursing programmes demonstrate academic potential as well as characteristics and values such as compassion, empathy and integrity. The Multiple Mini Interview (MMI) was used in one university as a way of ensuring that candidates had the appropriate numeracy and literacy skills as well as a range of communication, empathy, decision-making and problem-solving skills as well as ethical insights and integrity, initiative and team-work. To ascertain whether there is evidence of bias in MMIs (gender, age, nationality and location of secondary education) and to determine the extent to which the MMI is predictive of academic success in nursing. A longitudinal retrospective analysis of student demographics, MMI data and the assessment marks for years 1, 2 and 3. One university in southwest London. One cohort of students who commenced their programme in September 2011, including students in all four fields of nursing (adult, child, mental health and learning disability). Inferential statistics and a Bayesian Multilevel Model. MMI in conjunction with MMI numeracy test and MMI literacy test shows little or no bias in terms of ages, gender, nationality or location of secondary school education. Although MMI in conjunction with numeracy and literacy testing is predictive of academic success, it is only weakly predictive. The MMI used in conjunction with literacy and numeracy testing appears to be a successful technique for selecting candidates for nursing. However, other selection methods such as psychological profiling or testing of emotional intelligence may add to the extent to which selection methods are predictive of academic success on nursing. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Who Punishes? Personality Traits Predict Individual Variation in Punitive Sentiment

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S. Craig Roberts

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Cross-culturally, participants in public goods games reward participants and punish defectors to a degree beyond that warranted by rational, profit-maximizing considerations. Costly punishment, where individuals impose costs on defectors at a cost to themselves, is thought to promote the maintenance of cooperation. However, despite substantial variation in the extent to which people punish, little is known about why some individuals, and not others, choose to pay these costs. Here, we test whether personality traits might contribute to variation in helping and punishment behavior. We first replicate a previous study using public goods scenarios to investigate effects of sex, relatedness and likelihood of future interaction on willingness to help a group member or to punish a transgressor. As in the previous study, we find that individuals are more willing to help related than unrelated needy others and that women are more likely to express desire to help than men. Desire to help was higher if the probability of future interaction is high, at least among women. In contrast, among these variables, only participant sex predicted some measures of punitive sentiment. Extending the replication, we found that punitive sentiment, but not willingness to help, was predicted by personality traits. Most notably, participants scoring lower on Agreeableness expressed more anger towards and greater desire to punish a transgressor, and were more willing to engage in costly punishment, at least in our scenario. Our results suggest that some personality traits may contribute to underpinning individual variation in social enforcement of cooperation.

Topology of membrane proteins-predictions, limitations and variations.

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Tsirigos, Konstantinos D; Govindarajan, Sudha; Bassot, Claudio; Västermark, Åke; Lamb, John; Shu, Nanjiang; Elofsson, Arne

2017-10-26

Transmembrane proteins perform a variety of important biological functions necessary for the survival and growth of the cells. Membrane proteins are built up by transmembrane segments that span the lipid bilayer. The segments can either be in the form of hydrophobic alpha-helices or beta-sheets which create a barrel. A fundamental aspect of the structure of transmembrane proteins is the membrane topology, that is, the number of transmembrane segments, their position in the protein sequence and their orientation in the membrane. Along these lines, many predictive algorithms for the prediction of the topology of alpha-helical and beta-barrel transmembrane proteins exist. The newest algorithms obtain an accuracy close to 80% both for alpha-helical and beta-barrel transmembrane proteins. However, lately it has been shown that the simplified picture presented when describing a protein family by its topology is limited. To demonstrate this, we highlight examples where the topology is either not conserved in a protein superfamily or where the structure cannot be described solely by the topology of a protein. The prediction of these non-standard features from sequence alone was not successful until the recent revolutionary progress in 3D-structure prediction of proteins. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the 'success' of national climate scenarios?

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Hulme, Mike; Dessai, Suraje

2008-01-01

Scenarios may be understood as products and/or processes. Viewing scenario exercises as productive tends to emphasize their tangibility: scenario products may acquire value unrelated to the processes of their creation. Viewing scenario exercises as procedural tends to emphasize their modes of formation: the process of constructing scenarios may have benefits irrespective of the value of ensuing products. These two framings yield different expectations about how one might evaluate the 'success' or otherwise of scenario exercises. We illustrate three approaches to evaluating the success or otherwise of scenarios using the example of the series of national UK climate scenarios published between 1991 and 2002. These are: predictive success (has the future turned out as envisaged?), decision success (have 'good' decisions subsequently been made?) and learning success (have scenarios proved engaging and enabled learning?). We reflect on the different ways the 'success' of national climate scenarios might be evaluated and on the relationship between the productive and procedural dimensions of scenario exercises.

Prediction of Marginal Mass Required for Successful Islet Transplantation

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Papas, Klearchos K.; Colton, Clark K.; Qipo, Andi; Wu, Haiyan; Nelson, Rebecca A.; Hering, Bernhard J.; Weir, Gordon C.; Koulmanda, Maria

2013-01-01

Islet quality assessment methods for predicting diabetes reversal (DR) following transplantation are needed. We investigated two islet parameters, oxygen consumption rate (OCR) and OCR per DNA content, to predict transplantation outcome and explored the impact of islet quality on marginal islet mass for DR. Outcomes in immunosuppressed diabetic mice were evaluated by transplanting mixtures of healthy and purposely damaged rat islets for systematic variation of OCR/DNA over a wide range. The probability of DR increased with increasing transplanted OCR and OCR/DNA. On coordinates of OCR versus OCR/DNA, data fell into regions in which DR occurred in all, some, or none of the animals with a sharp threshold of around 150-nmol/min mg DNA. A model incorporating both parameters predicted transplantation outcome with sensitivity and specificity of 93% and 94%, respectively. Marginal mass was not constant, depended on OCR/DNA, and increased from 2,800 to over 100,000 islet equivalents/kg body weight as OCR/DNA decreased. We conclude that measurements of OCR and OCR/DNA are useful for predicting transplantation outcome in this model system, and OCR/DNA can be used to estimate the marginal mass required for reversing diabetes. Because human clinical islet preparations in a previous study had OCR/DNA values in the range of 100–150-nmol/min mg DNA, our findings suggest that substantial improvement in transplantation outcome may accompany increasedOCR/DNAin clinical islet preparations. PMID:20233002

Baseline Gray- and White Matter Volume Predict Successful Weight Loss in the Elderly

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Mokhtari, Fatemeh; Paolini, Brielle M.; Burdette, Jonathan H.; Marsh, Anthony P.; Rejeski, W. Jack; Laurienti, Paul J.

2016-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study is to investigate if structural brain phenotypes can be used to predict weight loss success following behavioral interventions in older adults that are overweight or obese and have cardiometabolic dysfunction. Methods A support vector machine (SVM) with a repeated random subsampling validation approach was used to classify participants into the upper and lower halves of the weight loss distribution following 18 months of a weight loss intervention. Predictions were based on baseline brain gray matter (GM) and white matter (WM) volume from 52 individuals that completed the intervention and a magnetic resonance imaging session. Results The SVM resulted in an average classification accuracy of 72.62 % based on GM and WM volume. A receiver operating characteristic analysis indicated that classification performance was robust based on an area under the curve of 0.82. Conclusions Our findings suggest that baseline brain structure is able to predict weight loss success following 18 months of treatment. The identification of brain structure as a predictor of successful weight loss is an innovative approach to identifying phenotypes for responsiveness to intensive lifestyle interventions. This phenotype could prove useful in future research focusing on the tailoring of treatment for weight loss. PMID:27804273

Predicting therapy success for treatment as usual and blended treatment in the domain of depression.

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van Breda, Ward; Bremer, Vincent; Becker, Dennis; Hoogendoorn, Mark; Funk, Burkhardt; Ruwaard, Jeroen; Riper, Heleen

2018-06-01

In this paper, we explore the potential of predicting therapy success for patients in mental health care. Such predictions can eventually improve the process of matching effective therapy types to individuals. In the EU project E-COMPARED, a variety of information is gathered about patients suffering from depression. We use this data, where 276 patients received treatment as usual and 227 received blended treatment, to investigate to what extent we are able to predict therapy success. We utilize different encoding strategies for preprocessing, varying feature selection techniques, and different statistical procedures for this purpose. Significant predictive power is found with average AUC values up to 0.7628 for treatment as usual and 0.7765 for blended treatment. Adding daily assessment data for blended treatment does currently not add predictive accuracy. Cost effectiveness analysis is needed to determine the added potential for real-world applications.

Hounsfield unit density accurately predicts ESWL success.

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Magnuson, William J; Tomera, Kevin M; Lance, Raymond S

2005-01-01

Extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (ESWL) is a commonly used non-invasive treatment for urolithiasis. Helical CT scans provide much better and detailed imaging of the patient with urolithiasis including the ability to measure density of urinary stones. In this study we tested the hypothesis that density of urinary calculi as measured by CT can predict successful ESWL treatment. 198 patients were treated at Alaska Urological Associates with ESWL between January 2002 and April 2004. Of these 101 met study inclusion with accessible CT scans and stones ranging from 5-15 mm. Follow-up imaging demonstrated stone freedom in 74.2%. The overall mean Houndsfield density value for stone-free compared to residual stone groups were significantly different ( 93.61 vs 122.80 p ESWL for upper tract calculi between 5-15mm.

Encopresis in children. Outcome and predictive factors of successful management.

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Mohammed, Adnan A; Mekael, Farag M

2012-06-01

To elucidate our experience and outcome in the management of childhood encopresis, and to emphasize the factors that may predict successful management. This prospective study was carried out between September 2003 and September 2011 in the Department of Pediatric Surgery, Al-Thoura Teaching Hospital, Al-Beida and Al-Butnan Medical Teaching Center, Tobruk, Libya. One hundred and thirty-two patients (117 male, 15 female) took part of the study. The male and female ratio was 7.8:1. The participants were patients aged 4-9 years. There were 30 (22.7%) patients between 4-5 years, 61 (46.2%) between 6-7 years, and 41 (31%) between 8-9 years. Nonretentive encopresis patients were 36 (27.2%) (Group I) and 96 (72.8%) patients had retentive encopresis (Group II). Patients with low fluid intake were 87 (65.9%) and low fiber diet were 91 (68.9%). Patients with delayed toilet training were 99 (75%). The total rate of successful conservative treatment was 70.5%. The rate of successful treatment in Group I was 94.4% and in Group II was 61.5%. We observed 18.2% of the patients had recurrence of encopresis. The factors found to predict good resolution rate after medical treatment included: cooperation of the parent and patient, female gender, ages above 5 years, and non-retentive encopresis. Encopresis remains a problem for the parents and the patients. Clinical evaluation is indispensable. Good outcome can be achieved effectively. Cooperative parents and patient, female gender, age above 5 years, and nonretentive encopresis are predictors for good response to medical treatment.

Geomagnetic imprinting predicts spatio-temporal variation in homing migration of pink and sockeye salmon

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Putman, Nathan F.; Jenkins, Erica S.; Michielsens, Catherine G. J.; Noakes, David L. G.

2014-01-01

Animals navigate using a variety of sensory cues, but how each is weighted during different phases of movement (e.g. dispersal, foraging, homing) is controversial. Here, we examine the geomagnetic and olfactory imprinting hypotheses of natal homing with datasets that recorded variation in the migratory routes of sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) salmon returning from the Pacific Ocean to the Fraser River, British Columbia. Drift of the magnetic field (i.e. geomagnetic imprinting) uniquely accounted for 23.2% and 44.0% of the variation in migration routes for sockeye and pink salmon, respectively. Ocean circulation (i.e. olfactory imprinting) predicted 6.1% and 0.1% of the variation in sockeye and pink migration routes, respectively. Sea surface temperature (a variable influencing salmon distribution but not navigation, directly) accounted for 13.0% of the variation in sockeye migration but was unrelated to pink migration. These findings suggest that geomagnetic navigation plays an important role in long-distance homing in salmon and that consideration of navigation mechanisms can aid in the management of migratory fishes by better predicting movement patterns. Finally, given the diversity of animals that use the Earth's magnetic field for navigation, geomagnetic drift may provide a unifying explanation for spatio-temporal variation in the movement patterns of many species. PMID:25056214

Induction of labour: clinical predictive factors for success and failure.

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Batinelli, Laura; Serafini, Andrea; Nante, Nicola; Petraglia, Felice; Severi, Filiberto Maria; Messina, Gabriele

2018-04-01

Induction of labour (IOL) is a widely-used practice in obstetrics. Our aim was to evaluate predictors of vaginal delivery in postdate pregnancies induced with prostaglandins. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study with analytic component. A total of 145 women, admitted for IOL after the 41st week of gestation, were induced with a vaginal pessary releasing prostaglandins. Type of delivery, whether vaginal or caesarean, was the outcome. Several maternal and foetal variables were investigated. The Kaplan-Maier curves, monovariate and a multivariate logistic regression were carried out. In our population, 80.7% of women had vaginal delivery after the induction. Multiparity and a high Bishop score at the beginning of the IOL were protective factors for a vaginal delivery (respectively OR 0.16, p = .028 and OR 0.62, p = .034) while age >35 years, and the foetal birth weight >3500 g at the birth, resulted in being risk factors for caesarean section (respectively OR 4.20, p = .006 and OR 3.63, p = .013). IMPACT STATEMENT What is already known on this subject: Induction of labour (IOL) is a widely used practice in obstetrics. Scientific literature shows several predictors of successful induction, although there is no unanimity except for 'multiparity' and 'favourable Bishop score' which are associated with positive outcome of the induction. The main difficulty in finding other predictive factors is the heterogeneity of this field (different local protocols in each hospital, type of induction, populations and outcomes chosen in each study). In addition to that, populations are not always comparable due to the different gestation. For this reason, we decided to select a specific population of women, such as low risk postterm pregnancies induced with prostaglandins, in order to detect possible predictive factors for the success of the IOL for women with uncomplicated pregnancies. What the results of this study add: Our study agrees with existing

Prediction Modeling for Academic Success in Professional Master's Athletic Training Programs

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Bruce, Scott L.; Crawford, Elizabeth; Wilkerson, Gary B.; Rausch, David; Dale, R. Barry; Harris, Martina

2016-01-01

Context: A common goal of professional education programs is to recruit the students best suited for the professional career. Selection of students can be a difficult process, especially if the number of qualified candidates exceeds the number of available positions. The ability to predict academic success in any profession has been a challenging…

Threat Related Selective Attention Predicts Treatment Success in Childhood Anxiety Disorders

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Legerstee, Jeroen S.; Tulen, Joke H. M.; Kallen, Victor L.; Dieleman, Gwen C.; Treffers, Philip D. A.; Verhulst, Frank C.; Utens, Elisabeth M. W. J.

2009-01-01

Threat-related selective attention was found to predict the success of the treatment of childhood anxiety disorders through administering a pictorial dot-probe task to 131 children with anxiety disorders prior to cognitive behavioral therapy. The diagnostic status of the subjects was evaluated with a semistructured clinical interview at both pre-…

Value of College Education Mediating the Predictive Effects of Causal Attributions on Academic Success

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Dong, Ying; Stupnisky, Robert H.; Obade, Masela; Gerszewski, Tammy; Ruthig, Joelle C.

2015-01-01

Causal attributions (explanations for outcomes) have been found to predict college students' academic success; however, not all students attributing success or failure to adaptive (i.e., controllable) causes perform well in university. Eccles et al.'s ("Achievement and achievement motives." W.H. Freeman, San Francisco, pp 75-145, 1983)…

Successful External Cephalic Version: Factors Predicting Vaginal Birth

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Lim, Pei Shan; Ng, Beng Kwang; Ali, Anizah; Shafiee, Mohamad Nasir; Kampan, Nirmala Chandralega; Mohamed Ismail, Nor Azlin; Omar, Mohd Hashim; Abdullah Mahdy, Zaleha

2014-01-01

Purpose. To determine the maternal and fetal outcomes of successful external cephalic version (ECV) as well as factors predicting vaginal birth. Methods. The ECV data over a period of three years at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre (UKMMC) between 1 September 2008 and 30 September 2010 was reviewed. Sixty-seven patients who had successful ECV were studied and reviewed for maternal, fetal, and labour outcomes. The control group comprised patients with cephalic singletons of matching parity who delivered following the index cases. Results. The mean gestational age at ECV was 263 ± 6.52 days (37.5 weeks ± 6.52 days). Spontaneous labour and transient cardiotocographic (CTG) changes were the commonest early adverse effects following ECV. The reversion rate was 7.46%. The mean gestational age at delivery of the two groups was significantly different (P = 0.000) with 277.9 ± 8.91 days and 269.9 ± 9.68 days in the study group and control groups, respectively. The study group needed significantly more inductions of labour. They required more operative deliveries, had more blood loss at delivery, a higher incidence of meconium-stained liquor, and more cord around the neck. Previous flexed breeches had a threefold increase in caesarean section rate compared to previous extended breeches (44.1% versus 15.2%, P = 0.010). On the contrary, an amniotic fluid index (AFI) of 13 or more is significantly associated with a higher rate of vaginal birth (86.8% versus 48.3%, P = 0.001). Conclusions. Patients with successful ECV were at higher risk of carrying the pregnancy beyond 40 weeks and needing induction of labour, with a higher rate of caesarean section and higher rates of obstetrics complications. Extended breech and AFI 13 or more were significantly more likely to deliver vaginally postsuccessful ECV. This additional information may be useful to caution a patient with breech that ECV does not bring them to behave exactly like a normal cephalic, so that they

Successful External Cephalic Version: Factors Predicting Vaginal Birth

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Pei Shan Lim

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. To determine the maternal and fetal outcomes of successful external cephalic version (ECV as well as factors predicting vaginal birth. Methods. The ECV data over a period of three years at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre (UKMMC between 1 September 2008 and 30 September 2010 was reviewed. Sixty-seven patients who had successful ECV were studied and reviewed for maternal, fetal, and labour outcomes. The control group comprised patients with cephalic singletons of matching parity who delivered following the index cases. Results. The mean gestational age at ECV was 263±6.52 days (37.5 weeks ± 6.52 days. Spontaneous labour and transient cardiotocographic (CTG changes were the commonest early adverse effects following ECV. The reversion rate was 7.46%. The mean gestational age at delivery of the two groups was significantly different (P=0.000 with 277.9±8.91 days and 269.9±9.68 days in the study group and control groups, respectively. The study group needed significantly more inductions of labour. They required more operative deliveries, had more blood loss at delivery, a higher incidence of meconium-stained liquor, and more cord around the neck. Previous flexed breeches had a threefold increase in caesarean section rate compared to previous extended breeches (44.1% versus 15.2%, P=0.010. On the contrary, an amniotic fluid index (AFI of 13 or more is significantly associated with a higher rate of vaginal birth (86.8% versus 48.3%, P=0.001. Conclusions. Patients with successful ECV were at higher risk of carrying the pregnancy beyond 40 weeks and needing induction of labour, with a higher rate of caesarean section and higher rates of obstetrics complications. Extended breech and AFI 13 or more were significantly more likely to deliver vaginally postsuccessful ECV. This additional information may be useful to caution a patient with breech that ECV does not bring them to behave exactly like a normal cephalic, so that they

Impaction and Prediction: Does Ureteral Wall Thickness Affect the Success of Medical Expulsive Therapy in Pediatric Ureteral Stones?

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Tuerxun, Aierken; Batuer, Abudukahaer; Erturhan, Sakip; Eryildirim, Bilal; Camur, Emre; Sarica, Kemal

2017-01-01

The study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of ureteral wall thickness (UWT) and stone-related parameters for medical expulsive therapy (MET) success with an alpha blocker in pediatric upper ureteral stones. A total of 35 children receiving MET ureteral stones (Hounsfield unit), degree of hydronephrosis, and UWT were evaluated with patient demographics and recorded. The possible predictive value of these parameters in success rates and time to stone expulsion were evaluated in a comparative manner between the 2 groups. The overall mean patient age and stone size values were 5.40 ± 0.51 years and 6.24 ± 0.28 mm, respectively. Regarding the predictive values of these parameters for the success of MET, while stone size and UWT were found to be highly predictive for MET success, patients age, body mass index, stone density, and degree of hydronephrosis had no predictive value on this aspect. Our findings indicated that some stone and anatomical factors may be used to predict the success of MET in pediatric ureteral stones in an effective manner. With this approach, unnecessary use of these drugs that may cause a delay in removing the stone will be avoided, and the possible adverse effects of obstruction as well as stone-related clinical symptoms could be minimized. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A clinical approach to the successful management of variations of middle mesial canals: A case series

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Raghavendra Penukonda

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The possible variations of anatomical and morphological characteristics of the teeth are very important especially for the endodontic practitioners for successful treatment. Mandibular molars are most commonly affected by dental caries and require endodontic treatment. Mandibular molars exhibit variations in its internal anatomy; one among those is the presence of an extra canal in the mesial root called as middle mesial (MM canal. Detection of these minute canals requires a proper clinical knowledge and radiographic examination. This article presents the treatment of three cases of mandibular first molars with MM canals without the aid of any magnification devices.

Prediction of successful treatment by extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy based on crystalluriacomposition correlations of urinary calculi

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Nadia Messaoudi

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Objective: To provide correlations between crystalluria and chemical structure of calculi in situ to help making decision in the use of the extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL. Methods: A crystalluria study was carried out on 644 morning urines of 172 nephrolithiasis patients (111 males and 61 females, and 235 of them were in situ stone carriers. After treating by ESWL, the recovered calculi have been analyzed by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and their compositions were correlated to the nature of urinary crystals. Results: We obtained successful treatment for 109 patients out of 157 and 63 patients out of 78 with stones had a treatment failure (33.2%. The correlations showed that for the overwhelming crystalluria containing calcium oxalate dihydrate (COD with mixed crystals without calcium oxalate monohydrate, we should have 68% to 88 % success rate. However, the obtained result was 79%. Similarly, for crystalluria with COD + calcium oxalate monohydrate ± carbapatite, the prediction was 11% to 45% and the result was approximately 39%. When the majority of crystalluria was calcium phosphate, the prediction of 50% to 80% was confirmed by 71% success rate. For those majority containing magnesium ammonium phosphate hexahydrate (struvite ± diammonium urate ± COD, we predicted between 80% to 100%, and the result gave a success rate of 84%. Conclusions: The analysis of crystalluria of morning urine can help to know the composition of calculi in situ and can predict the success rate of ESWL for maximum efficiency.

New successive variational method of tensor-optimized antisymmetrized molecular dynamics for nuclear many-body systems

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Myo, Takayuki; Toki, Hiroshi; Ikeda, Kiyomi; Horiuchi, Hisashi; Suhara, Tadahiro

2017-07-01

We recently proposed a new variational theory of “tensor-optimized antisymmetrized molecular dynamics” (TOAMD), which treats the strong interaction explicitly for finite nuclei [T. Myo et al., Prog. Theor. Exp. Phys. 2015, 073D02 (2015)]. In TOAMD, the correlation functions for the tensor force and the short-range repulsion and their multiple products are successively operated to the AMD state. The correlated Hamiltonian is expanded into many-body operators by using the cluster expansion and all the resulting operators are taken into account in the calculation without any truncation. We show detailed results for TOAMD with the nucleon-nucleon interaction AV8‧ for s-shell nuclei. The binding energy and the Hamiltonian components are successively converged to exact values of the few-body calculations. We also apply TOAMD to the Malfliet-Tjon central potential having a strong short-range repulsion. TOAMD can treat the short-range correlation and provided accurate energies of s-shell nuclei, reproducing the results of few-body calculations. It turns out that the numerical accuracy of TOAMD with double products of the correlation functions is beyond the variational Monte Carlo method with Jastrow's product-type correlation functions.

Comparison of clinical utility between diaphragm excursion and thickening change using ultrasonography to predict extubation success

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Yoo, Jung-Wan; Lee, Seung Jun; Lee, Jong Deog; Kim, Ho Cheol

2018-01-01

Background/Aims Both diaphragmatic excursion and change in muscle thickening are measured using ultrasonography (US) to assess diaphragm function and mechanical ventilation weaning outcomes. However, which parameter can better predict successful extubation remains to be determined. The aim of this study was to compare the clinical utility of these two diaphragmatic parameters to predict extubation success. Methods This study included patients subjected to extubation trial in the medical or surgical intensive care unit of a university-affiliated hospital from May 2015 through February 2016. Diaphragm excursion and percent of thickening change (Δtdi%) were measured using US within 24 hours before extubation. Results Sixty patients were included, and 78.3% (47/60) of these patients were successfully extubated, whereas 21.7% (13/60) were not. The median degree of excursion was greater in patients with extubation success than in those with extubation failure (1.65 cm vs. 0.8 cm, p success had a greater Δtdi% than those with extubation failure (42.1% vs. 22.5%, p = 0.03). The areas under the receiver operating curve for excursion and Δtdi% were 0.836 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.717 to 0.919) and 0.698 (95% CI, 0.566 to 0.810), respectively (p = 0.017). Conclusions Diaphragm excursion seems more accurate than a change in the diaphragm thickness to predict extubation success. PMID:29050461

Geomagnetic imprinting predicts spatio-temporal variation in homing migration of pink and sockeye salmon.

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Putman, Nathan F; Jenkins, Erica S; Michielsens, Catherine G J; Noakes, David L G

2014-10-06

Animals navigate using a variety of sensory cues, but how each is weighted during different phases of movement (e.g. dispersal, foraging, homing) is controversial. Here, we examine the geomagnetic and olfactory imprinting hypotheses of natal homing with datasets that recorded variation in the migratory routes of sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) salmon returning from the Pacific Ocean to the Fraser River, British Columbia. Drift of the magnetic field (i.e. geomagnetic imprinting) uniquely accounted for 23.2% and 44.0% of the variation in migration routes for sockeye and pink salmon, respectively. Ocean circulation (i.e. olfactory imprinting) predicted 6.1% and 0.1% of the variation in sockeye and pink migration routes, respectively. Sea surface temperature (a variable influencing salmon distribution but not navigation, directly) accounted for 13.0% of the variation in sockeye migration but was unrelated to pink migration. These findings suggest that geomagnetic navigation plays an important role in long-distance homing in salmon and that consideration of navigation mechanisms can aid in the management of migratory fishes by better predicting movement patterns. Finally, given the diversity of animals that use the Earth's magnetic field for navigation, geomagnetic drift may provide a unifying explanation for spatio-temporal variation in the movement patterns of many species. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Dive characteristics can predict foraging success in Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus as validated by animal-borne video

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Beth L. Volpov

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Dive characteristics and dive shape are often used to infer foraging success in pinnipeds. However, these inferences have not been directly validated in the field with video, and it remains unclear if this method can be applied to benthic foraging animals. This study assessed the ability of dive characteristics from time-depth recorders (TDR to predict attempted prey capture events (APC that were directly observed on animal-borne video in Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus, n=11. The most parsimonious model predicting the probability of a dive with ≥1 APC on video included only descent rate as a predictor variable. The majority (94% of the 389 total APC were successful, and the majority of the dives (68% contained at least one successful APC. The best model predicting these successful dives included descent rate as a predictor. Comparisons of the TDR model predictions to video yielded a maximum accuracy of 77.5% in classifying dives as either APC or non-APC or 77.1% in classifying dives as successful verses unsuccessful. Foraging intensity, measured as either total APC per dive or total successful APC per dive, was best predicted by bottom duration and ascent rate. The accuracy in predicting total APC per dive varied based on the number of APC per dive with maximum accuracy occurring at 1 APC for both total (54% and only successful APC (52%. Results from this study linking verified foraging dives to dive characteristics potentially opens the door to decades of historical TDR datasets across several otariid species.

Noncognitive Variables to Predict Academic Success among Junior Year Baccalaureate Nursing Students

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Smith, Ellen M. T.

2017-01-01

An equitable predictor of academic success is needed as nursing education strives toward comprehensive preparation of diverse nursing students. The purpose of this study was to discover how Sedlacek's (2004a) Noncognitive Questionnaire (NCQ) and Duckworth & Quinn's (2009) Grit-S predicted baccalaureate nursing student academic performance and…

Intraoperative Factors that Predict the Successful Placement of Essure Microinserts.

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Arthuis, Chloé J; Simon, Emmanuel G; Hébert, Thomas; Marret, Henri

To determine whether the number of coils visualized in the uterotubal junction at the end of hysteroscopic microinsert placement predicts successful tubal occlusion. Cohort retrospective study (Canadian Task Force classification II-2). Department of obstetrics and gynecology in a teaching hospital. One hundred fifty-three women underwent tubal microinsert placement for permanent birth control from 2010 through 2014. The local institutional review board approved this study. Three-dimensional transvaginal ultrasound (3D TVU) was routinely performed 3 months after hysteroscopic microinsert placement to check position in the fallopian tube. The correlation between the number of coils visible at the uterotubal junction at the end of the hysteroscopic microinsert placement procedure and the device position on the 3-month follow-up 3D TVU in 141 patients was evaluated. The analysis included 276 microinserts placed during hysteroscopy. The median number of coils visible after the hysteroscopic procedure was 4 (interquartile range, 3-5). Devices for 30 patients (21.3%) were incorrectly positioned according to the 3-month follow-up 3D TVU, and hysterosalpingography was recommended. In those patients the median number of coils was in both the right (interquartile range, 2-4) and left (interquartile range, 1-3) uterotubal junctions. The number of coils visible at the uterotubal junction at the end of the placement procedure was the only factor that predicted whether the microinsert was well positioned at the 3-month 3D TVU confirmation (odds ratio, .44; 95% confidence interval, .28-.63). When 5 or more coils were visible, no incorrectly placed microinsert could be seen on the follow-up 3D TVU; the negative predictive value was 100%. No pregnancies were reported. The number of coils observed at the uterotubal junction at the time of microinsert placement should be considered a significant predictive factor of accurate and successful microinsert placement. Copyright © 2017

Predicting therapy success for treatment as usual and blended treatment in the domain of depression

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van Breda, Ward; Bremer, Vincent; Becker, Dennis; Hoogendoorn, Mark; Funk, Burkhardt; Ruwaard, Jeroen; Riper, Heleen

2017-01-01

In this paper, we explore the potential of predicting therapy success for patients in mental health care. Such predictions can eventually improve the process of matching effective therapy types to individuals. In the EU project E-COMPARED, a variety of information is gathered about patients

Territory Quality and Plumage Morph Predict Offspring Sex Ratio Variation in a Raptor.

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Nayden Chakarov

Full Text Available Parents may adapt their offspring sex ratio in response to their own phenotype and environmental conditions. The most significant causes for adaptive sex-ratio variation might express themselves as different distributions of fitness components between sexes along a given variable. Several causes for differential sex allocation in raptors with reversed sexual size dimorphism have been suggested. We search for correlates of fledgling sex in an extensive dataset on common buzzards Buteo buteo, a long-lived bird of prey. Larger female offspring could be more resource-demanding and starvation-prone and thus the costly sex. Prominent factors such as brood size and laying date did not predict nestling sex. Nonetheless, lifetime sex ratio (LSR, potentially indicative of individual sex allocation constraints and overall nestling sex were explained by territory quality with more females being produced in better territories. Additionally, parental plumage morphs and the interaction of morph and prey abundance tended to explain LSR and nestling sex, indicating local adaptation of sex allocation However, in a limited census of nestling mortality, not females but males tended to die more frequently in prey-rich years. Also, although females could have potentially longer reproductive careers, a subset of our data encompassing full individual life histories showed that longevity and lifetime reproductive success were similarly distributed between the sexes. Thus, a basis for adaptive sex allocation in this population remains elusive. Overall, in common buzzards most major determinants of reproductive success appeared to have no effect on sex ratio but sex allocation may be adapted to local conditions in morph-specific patterns.

Second-to-fourth digit ratio predicts success among high-frequency financial traders.

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Coates, John M; Gurnell, Mark; Rustichini, Aldo

2009-01-13

Prenatal androgens have important organizing effects on brain development and future behavior. The second-to-fourth digit length ratio (2D:4D) has been proposed as a marker of these prenatal androgen effects, a relatively longer fourth finger indicating higher prenatal androgen exposure. 2D:4D has been shown to predict success in highly competitive sports. Yet, little is known about the effects of prenatal androgens on an economically influential class of competitive risk taking-trading in the financial world. Here, we report the findings of a study conducted in the City of London in which we sampled 2D:4D from a group of male traders engaged in what is variously called "noise" or "high-frequency" trading. We found that 2D:4D predicted the traders' long-term profitability as well as the number of years they remained in the business. 2D:4D also predicted the sensitivity of their profitability to increases both in circulating testosterone and in market volatility. Our results suggest that prenatal androgens increase risk preferences and promote more rapid visuomotor scanning and physical reflexes. The success and longevity of traders exposed to high levels of prenatal androgens further suggests that financial markets may select for biological traits rather than rational expectations.

Principal component analysis to evaluate the spatial variation of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Discretisation of the particle sizes is highlighted as both a challenge and an opportunity and it is recommended that it be used as a tuning parameter in gauging kaolin variations across samples and in validating new predictive modeling applications. Successful applications will depend on how clay and data scientists keep ...

Academic Life Satisfaction Scale (ALSS) and Its Effectiveness in Predicting Academic Success

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Kumar, P.K. Sudheesh; P., Dileep

2006-01-01

This study is undertaken to examine the effectiveness of a newly constructed psychometric instrument to assess Academic Life Satisfaction along with the components of Emotional Intelligence. The Academic Life Satisfaction Scale is used to predict the scholastic achievement as an index of Academic success. The investigators found that Academic Life…

Sperm swimming velocity predicts competitive fertilization success in the green swordtail Xiphophorus helleri.

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Clelia Gasparini

Full Text Available Sperm competition is expected to favour the evolution of traits that influence the performance of sperm when they compete to fertilize a female's eggs. While there is considerable evidence that selection favours increases in sperm numbers, much less is known about how sperm quality contributes towards competitive fertilization success. Here, we determine whether variation in sperm quality influences competitive fertilization success in the green swordtail Xiphophorus helleri, a highly promiscuous livebearing fish. We use artificial insemination as a method of controlled sperm delivery and show that sperm swimming velocity is the primary determinant of fertilization success when ejaculates from two males compete to fertilize a female's eggs. By contrast, we found no evidence that sperm length had any effect on siring success. We also found no evidence that pre- and postcopulatory sexual traits were phenotypically integrated in this species, suggesting that the previous observation that reproductive skew favours males with high mating rates is unlikely to be due to any direct association between sperm quality and male sexual ornamentation.

Predictive models for radial sap flux variation in coniferous, diffuse-porous and ring-porous temperate trees.

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Berdanier, Aaron B; Miniat, Chelcy F; Clark, James S

2016-08-01

Accurately scaling sap flux observations to tree or stand levels requires accounting for variation in sap flux between wood types and by depth into the tree. However, existing models for radial variation in axial sap flux are rarely used because they are difficult to implement, there is uncertainty about their predictive ability and calibration measurements are often unavailable. Here we compare different models with a diverse sap flux data set to test the hypotheses that radial profiles differ by wood type and tree size. We show that radial variation in sap flux is dependent on wood type but independent of tree size for a range of temperate trees. The best-fitting model predicted out-of-sample sap flux observations and independent estimates of sapwood area with small errors, suggesting robustness in the new settings. We develop a method for predicting whole-tree water use with this model and include computer code for simple implementation in other studies. Published by Oxford University Press 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Threat-Related Selective Attention Predicts Treatment Success in Childhood Anxiety Disorders

OpenAIRE

Legerstee, Jeroen; Tulen, Joke; Kallen, Victor; Dieleman, Gwen; Treffers, Philip; Verhulst, Frank; Utens, Elisabeth

2009-01-01

textabstractAbstract OBJECTIVE: The present study examined whether threat-related selective attention was predictive of treatment success in children with anxiety disorders and whether age moderated this association. Specific components of selective attention were examined in treatment responders and nonresponders. METHOD: Participants consisted of 131 children with anxiety disorders (aged 8-16 years), who received standardized cognitive-behavioral therapy. At pretreatment, a pictorial dot-pr...

The morphology of midcingulate cortex predicts frontal-midline theta neurofeedback success

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Stefanie eEnriquez-Geppert

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Humans differ in their ability to learn how to control their own brain activity by neurofeedback. However, neural mechanisms underlying these inter-individual differences, which may determine training success and associated cognitive enhancement, are not well understood. Here, it is asked whether neurofeedback success of frontal-midline (fm theta, an oscillation related to higher cognitive functions, could be predicted by the morphology of brain structures known to be critically involved in fm-theta generation. Nineteen young, right-handed participants underwent magnetic resonance imaging of T1-weighted brain images, and took part in an individualized, eight-session neurofeedback training in order to learn how to enhance activity in their fm-theta frequency band. Initial training success, measured at the second training session, was correlated with the final outcome measure. We found that the inferior, superior and middle frontal cortices were not associated with training success. However, volume of the midcingulate cortex as well as volume and concentration of the underlying white matter structures act as predictor variables for the general responsiveness to training. These findings suggest a neuroanatomical foundation for the ability to learn to control one’s own brain activity.

Using Standardized Tests to Identify Prior Knowledge Necessary for Success in Algebra: A Predictive Analysis

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Jensen, Jennifer

2014-01-01

This study sought to determine if there is a relationship between students' scores on the eighth-grade Indiana State Test of Education Progress Plus (ISTEP+) exam and success on Indiana's Algebra End-of-Course Assessment (ECA). Additionally, it sought to determine if algebra success could be significantly predicted by the achievement in one or…

Bike and run pacing on downhill segments predict Ironman triathlon relative success.

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Johnson, Evan C; Pryor, J Luke; Casa, Douglas J; Belval, Luke N; Vance, James S; DeMartini, Julie K; Maresh, Carl M; Armstrong, Lawrence E

2015-01-01

Determine if performance and physiological based pacing characteristics over the varied terrain of a triathlon predicted relative bike, run, and/or overall success. Poor self-regulation of intensity during long distance (Full Iron) triathlon can manifest in adverse discontinuities in performance. Observational study of a random sample of Ironman World Championship athletes. High performing and low performing groups were established upon race completion. Participants wore global positioning system and heart rate enabled watches during the race. Percentage difference from pre-race disclosed goal pace (%off) and mean HR were calculated for nine segments of the bike and 11 segments of the run. Normalized graded running pace (accounting for changes in elevation) was computed via analysis software. Step-wise regression analyses identified segments predictive of relative success and HP and LP were compared at these segments to confirm importance. %Off of goal velocity during two downhill segments of the bike (HP: -6.8±3.2%, -14.2±2.6% versus LP: -1.2±4.2%, -5.1±11.5%; p<0.020) and %off from NGP during one downhill segment of the run (HP: 4.8±5.2% versus LP: 33.3±38.7%; p=0.033) significantly predicted relative performance. Also, HP displayed more consistency in mean HR (141±12 to 138±11 bpm) compared to LP (139±17 to 131±16 bpm; p=0.019) over the climb and descent from the turn-around point during the bike component. Athletes who maintained faster relative speeds on downhill segments, and who had smaller changes in HR between consecutive up and downhill segments were more successful relative to their goal times. Copyright © 2013 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does Trait Emotional Intelligence Predict Unique Variance in Early Career Success Beyond IQ and Personality?

OpenAIRE

Haro García, José Manuel de; Castejón Costa, Juan Luis

2014-01-01

In order to determine the contribution of emotional intelligence (EI) to career success, in this study, we analyzed the relationship between trait EI (TEI), general mental ability (GMA), the big five personality traits, and career success indicators, in a sample of 130 graduates who were in the early stages of their careers. Results from hierarchical regression analyses indicated that TEI, and especially its dimension “repair,” has incremental validity in predicting one of the career success ...

The impact of climatic variations on the reproductive success of Gentiana lutea L. in a Mediterranean mountain area

Science.gov (United States)

Cuena-Lombraña, Alba; Fois, Mauro; Fenu, Giuseppe; Cogoni, Donatella; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

2018-03-01

Increases in temperature have been predicted and reported for the Mediterranean mountain ranges due to global warming and this phenomenon is expected to have profound consequences on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We hereby present the case of Gentiana lutea L. subsp. lutea, a rhizomatous long-lived plant living in Central-Southern Europe, which is at the edge of its ecological and distributional range in Sardinia. Concretely, we analysed the reproductive success experienced during three phenological cycles (2013/2014, 2014/2015 and 2015/2016) in four representative populations, with particular attention to the phenological cycle of 2014/2015, which has been recorded as one of the warmest periods of the last decades. The Smirnov-Grubbs test was used to evaluate differences in temperature and precipitation regimes among historical data and the analysed years, while the Kruskal-Wallis followed by the Wilcoxon test was used to measure differences between anthesis and reproductive performances among cycles and populations. In addition, generalised linear models were carried out to check relationships between climate variables and reproductive performance. Significant differences among climate variables and analysed cycles were highlighted, especially for maximum and mean temperatures. Such variations determined a non-flowering stage in two of the four analysed populations in 2014/2015 and significant differences of further five reproductive traits among cycles. These results confirmed that in current unstable climatic conditions, which are particularly evident in seasonal climates, reproductive success can be a sensitive and easily observable indicator of climatic anomalies. Considering the importance of this issue and the ease and cost-effectiveness of reproductive success monitoring, we argue that research in this sense can be a supporting tool for the enhancement of future crucial targets such as biodiversity conservation and the mitigation of global

Building Models to Predict Hint-or-Attempt Actions of Students

Science.gov (United States)

Castro, Francisco Enrique Vicente; Adjei, Seth; Colombo, Tyler; Heffernan, Neil

2015-01-01

A great deal of research in educational data mining is geared towards predicting student performance. Bayesian Knowledge Tracing, Performance Factors Analysis, and the different variations of these have been introduced and have had some success at predicting student knowledge. It is worth noting, however, that very little has been done to…

Life history dependent morphometric variation in stream-dwelling Atlantic salmon

Science.gov (United States)

Letcher, B.H.

2003-01-01

The time course of morphometric variation among life histories for stream-dwelling Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) parr (age-0+ to age-2+) was analyzed. Possible life histories were combinations of parr maturity status in the autumn (mature or immature) and age at outmigration (smolt at age-2+ or later age). Actual life histories expressed with enough fish for analysis in the 1997 cohort were immature/age-2+ smolt, mature/age-2 +smolt, and mature/age-2+ non-smolt. Tagged fish were assigned to one of the three life histories and digital pictures from the field were analyzed using landmark-based geometric morphometrics. Results indicated that successful grouping of fish according to life history varied with fish age, but that fish could be grouped before the actual expression of the life histories. By March (age-1+), fish were successfully grouped using a descriptive discriminant function and successful assignment ranged from 84 to 97% for the remainder of stream residence. A jackknife of the discriminant function revealed an average life history prediction success of 67% from age-1+ summer to smolting. Low sample numbers for one of the life histories may have limited prediction success. A MANOVA on the shape descriptors (relative warps) also indicated significant differences in shape among life histories from age-1+ summer through to smolting. Across all samples, shape varied significantly with size. Within samples, shape did not vary significantly with size for samples from December (age-0+) to May (age-1+). During the age-1+ summer however, shape varied significantly with size, but the relationship between shape and size was not different among life histories. In the autumn (age-1+) and winter (age-2+), life history differences explained a significant portion of the change in shape with size. Life history dependent morphometric variation may be useful to indicate the timing of early expressions of life history variation and as a tool to explore temporal and

Hope of Success and Fear of Failure Predicting Academic Procrastination Students Who Working on a Thesis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sari Zakiah Akmal

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Students, who are working on the thesis, have some difficulties caused by internal and external factors. Those problems can disrupt the completion of their thesis, such as the tendency to do academic procrastination. Increasing achievement motivation can reduce academic procrastination. This study aims to look at the role of achievement motivation (hope of success and fear of failure in predicting academic procrastination. The study used a quantitative approach by distributing academic procrastination and achievement motivation questionnaires. The study involved 182 students who were working on a thesis as samples, which were obtained by using accidental sampling technique. Data were analyzed using multiple regressions. It showed that the hope of success and fear of failure have a significant role in predicting academic procrastination (R2 = 13.8%, F = 14,356, p <0.05. The hope of success can decrease academic procrastination, while fear of failure can improve it. Thus, interventions to reduce academic procrastination can be delivered by increasing students hope of success.

Improving student success using predictive models and data visualisations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanan Ayad

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The need to educate a competitive workforce is a global problem. In the US, for example, despite billions of dollars spent to improve the educational system, approximately 35% of students never finish high school. The drop rate among some demographic groups is as high as 50–60%. At the college level in the US only 30% of students graduate from 2-year colleges in 3 years or less and approximately 50% graduate from 4-year colleges in 5 years or less. A basic challenge in delivering global education, therefore, is improving student success. By student success we mean improving retention, completion and graduation rates. In this paper we describe a Student Success System (S3 that provides a holistic, analytical view of student academic progress.1 The core of S3 is a flexible predictive modelling engine that uses machine intelligence and statistical techniques to identify at-risk students pre-emptively. S3 also provides a set of advanced data visualisations for reaching diagnostic insights and a case management tool for managing interventions. S3's open modular architecture will also allow integration and plug-ins with both open and proprietary software. Powered by learning analytics, S3 is intended as an end-to-end solution for identifying at-risk students, understanding why they are at risk, designing interventions to mitigate that risk and finally closing the feedback look by tracking the efficacy of the applied intervention.

A clinical nomogram to predict the successful shock wave lithotripsy of renal and ureteral calculi.

Science.gov (United States)

Wiesenthal, Joshua D; Ghiculete, Daniela; Ray, A Andrew; Honey, R John D'A; Pace, Kenneth T

2011-08-01

Although shock wave lithotripsy is dependent on patient and stone related factors, there are few reliable algorithms predictive of its success. In this study we develop a comprehensive nomogram to predict renal and ureteral stone shock wave lithotripsy outcomes. During a 5-year period data from patients treated at our lithotripsy unit were reviewed. Analysis was restricted to patients with a solitary renal or ureteral calculus 20 mm or less. Demographic, stone, patient, treatment and 3-month followup data were collected from a prospective database. All patients were treated using the Philips Lithotron® lithotripter. A total of 422 patients (69.7% male) were analyzed. Mean stone size was 52.3±39.3 mm2 for ureteral stones and 78.9±77.3 mm2 for renal stones, with 95 (43.6%) of the renal stones located in the lower pole. The single treatment success rates for ureteral and renal stones were 60.3% and 70.2%, respectively. On univariate analysis predictors of shock wave lithotripsy success, regardless of stone location, were age (p=0.01), body mass index (p=0.01), stone size (pstone density (pstone distance (pstone area and skin to stone distance were significant predictors with an AUC of 0.75. For ureteral calculi predictive factors included body mass index and stone size (AUC 0.70). Patient and stone parameters have been identified to create a nomogram that predicts shock wave lithotripsy outcomes using the Lithotron lithotripter, which can facilitate optimal treatment based decisions and provide patients with more accurate single treatment success rates for shock wave lithotripsy tailored to patient specific situations. Copyright © 2011 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Remote health monitoring: predicting outcome success based on contextual features for cardiovascular disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Alshurafa, Nabil; Eastwood, Jo-Ann; Pourhomayoun, Mohammad; Liu, Jason J; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

2014-01-01

Current studies have produced a plethora of remote health monitoring (RHM) systems designed to enhance the care of patients with chronic diseases. Many RHM systems are designed to improve patient risk factors for cardiovascular disease, including physiological parameters such as body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference, and lipid profiles such as low density lipoprotein (LDL) and high density lipoprotein (HDL). There are several patient characteristics that could be determining factors for a patient's RHM outcome success, but these characteristics have been largely unidentified. In this paper, we analyze results from an RHM system deployed in a six month Women's Heart Health study of 90 patients, and apply advanced feature selection and machine learning algorithms to identify patients' key baseline contextual features and build effective prediction models that help determine RHM outcome success. We introduce Wanda-CVD, a smartphone-based RHM system designed to help participants with cardiovascular disease risk factors by motivating participants through wireless coaching using feedback and prompts as social support. We analyze key contextual features that secure positive patient outcomes in both physiological parameters and lipid profiles. Results from the Women's Heart Health study show that health threat of heart disease, quality of life, family history, stress factors, social support, and anxiety at baseline all help predict patient RHM outcome success.

Non-linear dynamical signal characterization for prediction of defibrillation success through machine learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shandilya Sharad

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Ventricular Fibrillation (VF is a common presenting dysrhythmia in the setting of cardiac arrest whose main treatment is defibrillation through direct current countershock to achieve return of spontaneous circulation. However, often defibrillation is unsuccessful and may even lead to the transition of VF to more nefarious rhythms such as asystole or pulseless electrical activity. Multiple methods have been proposed for predicting defibrillation success based on examination of the VF waveform. To date, however, no analytical technique has been widely accepted. We developed a unique approach of computational VF waveform analysis, with and without addition of the signal of end-tidal carbon dioxide (PetCO2, using advanced machine learning algorithms. We compare these results with those obtained using the Amplitude Spectral Area (AMSA technique. Methods A total of 90 pre-countershock ECG signals were analyzed form an accessible preshosptial cardiac arrest database. A unified predictive model, based on signal processing and machine learning, was developed with time-series and dual-tree complex wavelet transform features. Upon selection of correlated variables, a parametrically optimized support vector machine (SVM model was trained for predicting outcomes on the test sets. Training and testing was performed with nested 10-fold cross validation and 6–10 features for each test fold. Results The integrative model performs real-time, short-term (7.8 second analysis of the Electrocardiogram (ECG. For a total of 90 signals, 34 successful and 56 unsuccessful defibrillations were classified with an average Accuracy and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC Area Under the Curve (AUC of 82.2% and 85%, respectively. Incorporation of the end-tidal carbon dioxide signal boosted Accuracy and ROC AUC to 83.3% and 93.8%, respectively, for a smaller dataset containing 48 signals. VF analysis using AMSA resulted in accuracy and ROC AUC of 64

Measured and Predicted Variations in Fast Neutron Spectrum in Massive Shields of Water and Concrete

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aalto, E; Sandlin, R; Fraeki, R

1965-09-15

The absolute magnitude, and the variations in form, of the fast neutron spectrum during deep penetration (0.8 - 1.1 metre) in massive shields of water, ordinary and magnetite concrete have been studied by using threshold detectors (In (n, h'), S(n,p), Al(n, {alpha})). The results have been compared with predictions by two rigorous (NIOBE, Moments method) and two non-rigorous (multigroup removal-diffusion) shielding codes (NRN, RASH D). The absolute results predicted were in general within 50% of the measured ones, i. e. showed as good or better accuracy than thermal and epithermal flux predictions in the same small-reactor configurations. No difference in accuracy was found between the rigorous and non-rigorous methods. The changes in the relative form of the spectrum (indicated by variations in the (Al/S) and (In/S) reaction rate ratios and amounting to factors up to 3 - 4 during a one metre penetration in water) were rather accurately (within 10 - 30%) predicted by all of the methods. The photonuclear excitation of the 335 keV level used for detecting the In(n, n') reaction was found to distort completely the In results in water at penetrations > 50 cm.

Respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity accurately predicts fluid responsiveness in children undergoing neurosurgery under general anesthesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Morparia, Kavita G; Reddy, Srijaya K; Olivieri, Laura J; Spaeder, Michael C; Schuette, Jennifer J

2018-04-01

The determination of fluid responsiveness in the critically ill child is of vital importance, more so as fluid overload becomes increasingly associated with worse outcomes. Dynamic markers of volume responsiveness have shown some promise in the pediatric population, but more research is needed before they can be adopted for widespread use. Our aim was to investigate effectiveness of respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity and pulse pressure variation to predict fluid responsiveness, and determine their optimal cutoff values. We performed a prospective, observational study at a single tertiary care pediatric center. Twenty-one children with normal cardiorespiratory status undergoing general anesthesia for neurosurgery were enrolled. Respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity (ΔVpeak ao) was measured both before and after volume expansion using a bedside ultrasound device. Pulse pressure variation (PPV) value was obtained from the bedside monitor. All patients received a 10 ml/kg fluid bolus as volume expansion, and were qualified as responders if stroke volume increased >15% as a result. Utility of ΔVpeak ao and PPV and to predict responsiveness to volume expansion was investigated. A baseline ΔVpeak ao value of greater than or equal to 12.3% best predicted a positive response to volume expansion, with a sensitivity of 77%, specificity of 89% and area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.90. PPV failed to demonstrate utility in this patient population. Respiratory variation in peak aortic velocity is a promising marker for optimization of perioperative fluid therapy in the pediatric population and can be accurately measured using bedside ultrasonography. More research is needed to evaluate the lack of effectiveness of pulse pressure variation for this purpose.

Only 7% of the variation in feed efficiency in veal calves can be predicted from variation in feeding motivation, digestion, metabolism, immunology, and behavioral traits in early life

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gilbert, M.S.; Borne, van den J.J.G.C.; Reenen, van C.G.; Gerrits, W.J.J.

2017-01-01

High interindividual variation in growth performance is commonly observed in veal calf production and appears to depend on milk replacer (MR) composition. Our first objective was to examine whether variation in growth performance in healthy veal calves can be predicted from early life

Youth's Causal Beliefs About Success: Socioeconomic Differences and Prediction of Early Career Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Kay, Joseph S; Shane, Jacob; Heckhausen, Jutta

2017-10-01

Youth's career attainment is associated with socioeconomic background, but may also be related to their beliefs about causes of success. Relationships between 17-year-olds' socioeconomic status (SES) and causal beliefs about success, and whether these beliefs predict career attainment after completing a vocational or university degree were examined using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (n = 997, 48.5% female). Youth with higher SES parents and those who attended higher levels of high schools were less likely to believe that success in society is due to external causes, but SES was unrelated to the belief that success is due to personal merit or ability. Youth who believe that success is due to external causes attained lower income, occupational prestige, and job autonomy, and slower increases in income over time. There were also significant indirect effects of youth's parents' SES and their own high school levels on career attainment through such external causal beliefs; merit beliefs, by contrast, were largely unrelated to career attainment. These results suggest that beliefs about external causes of success may uniquely contribute to the transmission and maintenance of SES across generations and over time.

Mentoring Support and Power: A Three Year Predictive Field Study on Protege Networking and Career Success

Science.gov (United States)

Blickle, Gerhard; Witzki, Alexander H.; Schneider, Paula B.

2009-01-01

Career success of early employees was analyzed from a power perspective and a developmental network perspective. In a predictive field study with 112 employees mentoring support and mentors' power were assessed in the first wave, employees' networking was assessed after two years, and career success (i.e. income and hierarchical position) and…

Predicting Successful Completion Using Student Delay Indicators in Undergraduate Self-Paced Online Courses

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Janine M.

2016-01-01

Self-paced online courses meet flexibility and learning needs of many students, but skepticism persists regarding the quality and the tendency for students to procrastinate in self-paced courses. Research is needed to understand procrastination and delay patterns of students in online self-paced courses to predict successful completion and…

Genotypic variation influences reproductive success and thermal stress tolerance in the reef building coral, Acropora palmata

Science.gov (United States)

Baums, I. B.; Devlin-Durante, M. K.; Polato, N. R.; Xu, D.; Giri, S.; Altman, N. S.; Ruiz, D.; Parkinson, J. E.; Boulay, J. N.

2013-09-01

The branching coral Acropora palmata is a foundation species of Caribbean reefs that has been decimated in recent decades by anthropogenic and natural stressors. Declines in population density and genotypic diversity likely reduce successful sexual reproduction in this self-incompatible hermaphrodite and might impede recovery. We investigated variation among genotypes in larval development under thermally stressful conditions. Six two-parent crosses and three four-parent batches were reared under three temperatures and sampled over time. Fertilization rates differed widely with two-parent crosses having lower fertilization rates (5-56 %, mean 22 % ± 22 SD) than batches (from 31 to 87 %, mean 59 % ± 28 SD). Parentage analysis of larvae in batch cultures showed differences in gamete compatibility among parents, coinciding with significant variation in both sperm morphology and egg size. While all larval batches developed more rapidly at increased water temperatures, rate of progression through developmental stages varied among batches, as did swimming speed. Together, these results indicate that loss of genotypic diversity exacerbates already severe limitations in sexual reproductive success of A. palmata. Nevertheless, surviving parental genotypes produce larvae that do vary in their phenotypic response to thermal stress, with implications for adaptation, larval dispersal and population connectivity in the face of warming sea surface temperatures.

Female song rate and structure predict reproductive success in a socially monogamous bird.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dianne Heather Brunton

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Bird song is commonly regarded as a male trait that has evolved through sexual selection. However, recent research has prompted a re-evaluation of this view by demonstrating that female song is an ancestral and phylogenetically widespread trait. Species with female song provide opportunities to study selective pressures and mechanisms specific to females within the wider context of social competition. We investigated the relationship between reproductive success and female song performance in the New Zealand bellbird (Anthornis melanura, a passerine resident year round in New Zealand temperate forests. We monitored breeding behavior and song over three years on Tiritiri Matangi Island. Female bellbirds contributed significantly more towards parental care than males (solely incubating young and provisioning chicks at more than twice the rate of males. Female song rate in the vicinity of the nest was higher than that of males during incubation and chick-rearing stages but similar during early-nesting and post-breeding stages. Using GLMs, we found that female song rates during both incubation and chick-rearing stages strongly predicted the number of fledged chicks. However, male song rate and male and female chick provisioning rates had no effect on fledging success. Two measures of female song complexity (number of syllable types and the number of transitions between different syllable types were also good predictors of breeding success (GLM on PC scores. In contrast, song duration, the total number of syllables, and the number of ‘stutter’ syllables per song were not correlated with fledging success. It is unclear why male song rate was not associated with reproductive success and we speculate that extra-pair paternity might play a role. While we have previously demonstrated that female bellbird song is important in intrasexual interactions, we clearly demonstrate here that female song predicts reproductive success. These results, with others

Dynamic fMRI networks predict success in a behavioral weight loss program among older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Mokhtari, Fatemeh; Rejeski, W Jack; Zhu, Yingying; Wu, Guorong; Simpson, Sean L; Burdette, Jonathan H; Laurienti, Paul J

2018-06-01

More than one-third of adults in the United States are obese, with a higher prevalence among older adults. Obesity among older adults is a major cause of physical dysfunction, hypertension, diabetes, and coronary heart diseases. Many people who engage in lifestyle weight loss interventions fail to reach targeted goals for weight loss, and most will regain what was lost within 1-2 years following cessation of treatment. This variability in treatment efficacy suggests that there are important phenotypes predictive of success with intentional weight loss that could lead to tailored treatment regimen, an idea that is consistent with the concept of precision-based medicine. Although the identification of biochemical and metabolic phenotypes are one potential direction of research, neurobiological measures may prove useful as substantial behavioral change is necessary to achieve success in a lifestyle intervention. In the present study, we use dynamic brain networks from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data to prospectively identify individuals most likely to succeed in a behavioral weight loss intervention. Brain imaging was performed in overweight or obese older adults (age: 65-79 years) who participated in an 18-month lifestyle weight loss intervention. Machine learning and functional brain networks were combined to produce multivariate prediction models. The prediction accuracy exceeded 95%, suggesting that there exists a consistent pattern of connectivity which correctly predicts success with weight loss at the individual level. Connectivity patterns that contributed to the prediction consisted of complex multivariate network components that substantially overlapped with known brain networks that are associated with behavior emergence, self-regulation, body awareness, and the sensory features of food. Future work on independent datasets and diverse populations is needed to corroborate our findings. Additionally, we believe that efforts can begin to

Predicting Variation of Folk Songs: A Corpus Analysis Study on the Memorability of Melodies

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Berit Janssen

2017-04-01

Full Text Available We present a hypothesis-driven study on the variation of melody phrases in a collection of Dutch folk songs. We investigate the variation of phrases within the folk songs through a pattern matching method which detects occurrences of these phrases within folk song variants, and ask the question: do the phrases which show less variation have different properties than those which do? We hypothesize that theories on melody recall may predict variation, and as such, investigate phrase length, the position and number of repetitions of a given phrase in the melody in which it occurs, as well as expectancy and motif repetivity. We show that all of these predictors account for the observed variation to a moderate degree, and that, as hypothesized, those phrases vary less which are rather short, contain highly expected melodic material, occur relatively early in the melody, and contain small pitch intervals. A large portion of the variance is left unexplained by the current model, however, which leads us to a discussion of future approaches to study memorability of melodies.

Prediction of Success in External Cephalic Version under Tocolysis: Still a Challenge.

Science.gov (United States)

Vaz de Macedo, Carolina; Clode, Nuno; Mendes da Graça, Luís

2015-01-01

External cephalic version is a procedure of fetal rotation to a cephalic presentation through manoeuvres applied to the maternal abdomen. There are several prognostic factors described in literature for external cephalic version success and prediction scores have been proposed, but their true implication in clinical practice is controversial. We aim to identify possible factors that could contribute to the success of an external cephalic version attempt in our population. We retrospectively examined 207 consecutive external cephalic version attempts under tocolysis conducted between January 1997 and July 2012. We consulted the department's database for the following variables: race, age, parity, maternal body mass index, gestational age, estimated fetal weight, breech category, placental location and amniotic fluid index. We performed descriptive and analytical statistics for each variable and binary logistic regression. External cephalic version was successful in 46.9% of cases (97/207). None of the included variables was associated with the outcome of external cephalic version attempts after adjustment for confounding factors. We present a success rate similar to what has been previously described in literature. However, in contrast to previous authors, we could not associate any of the analysed variables with success of the external cephalic version attempt. We believe this discrepancy is partly related to the type of statistical analysis performed. Even though there are numerous prognostic factors identified for the success in external cephalic version, care must be taken when counselling and selecting patients for this procedure. The data obtained suggests that external cephalic version should continue being offered to all eligible patients regardless of prognostic factors for success.

Isomorph theory prediction for the dielectric loss variation along an isochrone

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xiao, Wence; Tofteskov, Jon; Dyre, J. C.

2015-01-01

This paper derives a prediction for the variation of the amplitude of the dielectric loss from isomorph theory, and presents an experimental test of the prediction performed by measuring the dielectric relaxation behavior of the van der Waals liquid 5-phenyl-4-ether (5PPE). The liquid is studied...... isomorph-invariant terms, one of which is used in analyzing our data. It is the frequency-dependent term χe(f)ργ − 1, with electric susceptibility χe, density ρ, and density-scaling factor γ. Due to the unique design of our experimental setup, we obtain dielectric loss data where the amplitude...... is reproducible ± 0.1 %. We moreover find that the empty capacitance of the capacitor cell is stable within ± 0.3 % in our measuring range and can be assumed to be constant. Using this we predict for two isomorph states there is C2″(f) = C1″(f)(ρ1/ρ2)γ−1 to scale the imaginary capacitance, where C1...

Variational transition-state theory. Progress report, February 1981-January 1983

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Truhlar, D.G.

1983-01-01

During the past two years we have extended the variational transition-state theory in several ways. Especially notable is that we have developed several new methods for calculating tunneling probabilities, including two general techniques applicable to systems with small and large reaction-path curvature. We have tested these methods successfully against accurate quantal calculations, and we have applied them to real systems in three dimensions. We have also developed general algorithms for variational transition state theory calculations on polyatomic systems and we have applied these to the combustion reaction OH + H 2 → H 2 O + H. We have developed and successfully applied a statistical-diabatic theory for state-selected rates. We made a totally ab initio prediction of an absolute chemical reaction rate, for the reaction Mu + H 2 → MuH + H, using an accurate potential energy surface and ethods that we had demonstrated to be reliable by tests against accurate quantal collinear results. This prediction has now been confirmed by unpublished experiments; I believe that this is the first reliable ab initio prediction of a chemical rection rate prior to its measurement. In the rest of this technical progress report we give further details of these and other studies we have carried out in the last two years under this contract

Only 7% of the variation in feed efficiency in veal calves can be predicted from variation in feeding motivation, digestion, metabolism, immunology, and behavioral traits in early life.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilbert, M S; van den Borne, J J G C; van Reenen, C G; Gerrits, W J J

2017-10-01

High interindividual variation in growth performance is commonly observed in veal calf production and appears to depend on milk replacer (MR) composition. Our first objective was to examine whether variation in growth performance in healthy veal calves can be predicted from early life characterization of these calves. Our second objective was to determine whether these predictions differ between calves that are fed a high- or low-lactose MR in later life. A total of 180 male Holstein-Friesian calves arrived at the facilities at 17 ± 3.4 d of age, and blood samples were collected before the first feeding. Subsequently, calves were characterized in the following 9 wk (period 1) using targeted challenges related to traits within each of 5 categories: feeding motivation, digestion, postabsorptive metabolism, behavior and stress, and immunology. In period 2 (wk 10-26), 130 calves were equally divided over 2 MR treatments: a control MR that contained lactose as the only carbohydrate source and a low-lactose MR in which 51% of the lactose was isocalorically replaced by glucose, fructose, and glycerol (2:1:2 ratio). Relations between early life characteristics and growth performance in later life were assessed in 117 clinically healthy calves. Average daily gain (ADG) in period 2 tended to be greater for control calves (1,292 ± 111 g/d) than for calves receiving the low-lactose MR (1,267 ± 103 g/d). Observations in period 1 were clustered per category using principal component analysis, and the resulting principal components were used to predict performance in period 2 using multiple regression procedures. Variation in observations in period 1 predicted 17% of variation in ADG in period 2. However, this was mainly related to variation in solid feed refusals. When ADG was adjusted to equal solid feed intake, only 7% of the variation in standardized ADG in period 2, in fact reflecting feed efficiency, could be explained by early life measurements. This indicates that >90

Prediction of interannual climate variations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, J.

1993-01-01

It has been known for some time that the behavior of the short-term fluctuations of the earth's atmosphere resembles that of a chaotic non-linear dynamical system, and that the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. However, it has also been found that the interactions of the atmosphere with the underlying oceans and the land surfaces can produce fluctuations whose time scales are much longer than the limits of deterministic prediction of weather. It is, therefore, natural to ask whether it is possible that the seasonal and longer time averages of climate fluctuations can be predicted with sufficient skill to be beneficial for social and economic applications, even though the details of day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. The main objective of the workshop was to address this question by assessing the current state of knowledge on predictability of seasonal and interannual climate variability and to investigate various possibilities for its prediction. (orig./KW)

Attempting to Predict Success in the Qualifying Round of the International Chemistry Olympiad

Science.gov (United States)

Urhahne, Detlef; Ho, Lok Hang; Parchmann, Ilka; Nick, Sabine

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was trying to predict success in the qualifying round for the International Chemistry Olympiad (IChO) on the basis of the expectancy-value model of achievement motivation by Eccles et al. The investigation with 52 participants, including 14 females, was conducted during the third of four qualifying rounds of the IChO in…

Predicting success for college students enrolled in an online, lab-based, biology course for non-majors

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, Regina

Online education has exploded in popularity. While there is ample research on predictors of traditional college student success, little research has been done on effective methods of predicting student success in online education. In this study, a number of demographic variables including GPA, ACT, gender, age and others were examined to determine what, if any, role they play in successfully predicting student success in an online, lab-based biology for non-majors course. Within course variables such as participation in specific categories of assignment and frequency of online visits were also examined. Groups of students including Native American/Non-Native American and Digital Immigrants and Digital Natives and others were also examined to determine if overall course success differed significantly. Good predictors of online success were found to be GPA, ACT, previous course experience and frequency of online visits with the course materials. Additionally, students who completed more of the online assignments within the course were more successful. Native American and Non-Native American students were found to differ in overall course success significantly as well. Findings indicate student academic background, previous college experience and time spent with course materials are the most important factors in course success. Recommendations include encouraging enrollment advisors to advise students about the importance of maintaining high academic levels, previous course experience and spending time with course materials may impact students' choices for online courses. A need for additional research in several areas is indicated, including Native American and Non-Native American differences. A more detailed examination of students' previous coursework would also be valuable. A study involving more courses, a larger number of students and surveys from faculty who teach online courses would help improve the generalizability of the conclusions.

Predicting Indian Summer Monsoon onset through variations of surface air temperature and relative humidity

Science.gov (United States)

Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

2015-04-01

Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall has an enormous effect on Indian agriculture, economy, and, as a consequence, life and prosperity of more than one billion people. Variability of the monsoonal rainfall and its onset have a huge influence on food production, agricultural planning and GDP of the country, which on 22% is determined by agriculture. Consequently, successful forecasting of the ISM onset is a big challenge and large efforts are being put into it. Here, we propose a novel approach for predictability of the ISM onset, based on critical transition theory. The ISM onset is defined as an abrupt transition from sporadious rainfall to spatially organized and temporally sustained rainfall. Taking this into account, we consider the ISM onset as is a critical transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon, which take place in time and also in space. It allows us to suggest that before the onset of ISM on the Indian subcontinent should be areas of critical behavior where indicators of the critical transitions can be detected through an analysis of observational data. First, we identify areas with such critical behavior. Second, we use detected areas as reference points for observation locations for the ISM onset prediction. Third, we derive a precursor for the ISM onset based on the analysis of surface air temperature and relative humidity variations in these reference points. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of this precursor on two observational data sets. The proposed approach allows to determine ISM onset in advance in 67% of all considered years. Our proposed approach is less effective during the anomalous years, which are associated with weak/strong monsoons, e.g. El-Nino, La-Nina or positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. The ISM onset is predicted for 23 out of 27 normal monsoon years (85%) during the past 6 decades. In the anomalous years, we show that time series analysis in both areas during the pre-monsoon period reveals indicators whether the

Rare copy number deletions predict individual variation in intelligence.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ronald A Yeo

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Phenotypic variation in human intellectual functioning shows substantial heritability, as demonstrated by a long history of behavior genetic studies. Many recent molecular genetic studies have attempted to uncover specific genetic variations responsible for this heritability, but identified effects capture little variance and have proven difficult to replicate. The present study, motivated an interest in "mutation load" emerging from evolutionary perspectives, examined the importance of the number of rare (or infrequent copy number variations (CNVs, and the total number of base pairs included in such deletions, for psychometric intelligence. Genetic data was collected using the Illumina 1MDuoBeadChip Array from a sample of 202 adult individuals with alcohol dependence, and a subset of these (N = 77 had been administered the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence (WASI. After removing CNV outliers, the impact of rare genetic deletions on psychometric intelligence was investigated in 74 individuals. The total length of the rare deletions significantly and negatively predicted intelligence (r = -.30, p = .01. As prior studies have indicated greater heritability in individuals with relatively higher parental socioeconomic status (SES, we also examined the impact of ethnicity (Anglo/White vs. Other, as a proxy measure of SES; these groups did not differ on any genetic variable. This categorical variable significantly moderated the effect of length of deletions on intelligence, with larger effects being noted in the Anglo/White group. Overall, these results suggest that rare deletions (between 5% and 1% population frequency or less adversely affect intellectual functioning, and that pleotropic effects might partly account for the association of intelligence with health and mental health status. Significant limitations of this research, including issues of generalizability and CNV measurement, are discussed.

Rare Copy Number Deletions Predict Individual Variation in Intelligence

Science.gov (United States)

Yeo, Ronald A.; Gangestad, Steven W.; Liu, Jingyu; Calhoun, Vince D.; Hutchison, Kent E.

2011-01-01

Phenotypic variation in human intellectual functioning shows substantial heritability, as demonstrated by a long history of behavior genetic studies. Many recent molecular genetic studies have attempted to uncover specific genetic variations responsible for this heritability, but identified effects capture little variance and have proven difficult to replicate. The present study, motivated an interest in “mutation load” emerging from evolutionary perspectives, examined the importance of the number of rare (or infrequent) copy number variations (CNVs), and the total number of base pairs included in such deletions, for psychometric intelligence. Genetic data was collected using the Illumina 1MDuoBeadChip Array from a sample of 202 adult individuals with alcohol dependence, and a subset of these (N = 77) had been administered the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence (WASI). After removing CNV outliers, the impact of rare genetic deletions on psychometric intelligence was investigated in 74 individuals. The total length of the rare deletions significantly and negatively predicted intelligence (r = −.30, p = .01). As prior studies have indicated greater heritability in individuals with relatively higher parental socioeconomic status (SES), we also examined the impact of ethnicity (Anglo/White vs. Other), as a proxy measure of SES; these groups did not differ on any genetic variable. This categorical variable significantly moderated the effect of length of deletions on intelligence, with larger effects being noted in the Anglo/White group. Overall, these results suggest that rare deletions (between 5% and 1% population frequency or less) adversely affect intellectual functioning, and that pleotropic effects might partly account for the association of intelligence with health and mental health status. Significant limitations of this research, including issues of generalizability and CNV measurement, are discussed. PMID:21298096

Interaction of species traits and environmental disturbance predicts invasion success of aquatic microorganisms.

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Elvira Mächler

Full Text Available Factors such as increased mobility of humans, global trade and climate change are affecting the range of many species, and cause large-scale translocations of species beyond their native range. Many introduced species have a strong negative influence on the new local environment and lead to high economic costs. There is a strong interest to understand why some species are successful in invading new environments and others not. Most of our understanding and generalizations thereof, however, are based on studies of plants and animals, and little is known on invasion processes of microorganisms. We conducted a microcosm experiment to understand factors promoting the success of biological invasions of aquatic microorganisms. In a controlled lab experiment, protist and rotifer species originally isolated in North America invaded into a natural, field-collected community of microorganisms of European origin. To identify the importance of environmental disturbances on invasion success, we either repeatedly disturbed the local patches, or kept them as undisturbed controls. We measured both short-term establishment and long-term invasion success, and correlated it with species-specific life-history traits. We found that environmental disturbances significantly affected invasion success. Depending on the invading species' identity, disturbances were either promoting or decreasing invasion success. The interaction between habitat disturbance and species identity was especially pronounced for long-term invasion success. Growth rate was the most important trait promoting invasion success, especially when the species invaded into a disturbed local community. We conclude that neither species traits nor environmental factors alone conclusively predict invasion success, but an integration of both of them is necessary.

Cut-Off Value for Pain Sensitivity Questionnaire in Predicting Surgical Success in Patients with Lumbar Disc Herniation.

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Parisa Azimi

Full Text Available Various factors related to predict surgical success were studied; however, a standard cut-off point for the Pain Sensitivity Questionnaire (PSQ measure has not yet been established for a favorable surgical outcome for lumbar disc herniation (LDH. This study was to find the optimal cut-off point on the PSQ to distinguish surgical success in patients with LDH. A total of 154 patients with LDH consecutively referred to our clinic were enrolled into this prospective study between February 2011 and January 2014. All participants completed the PSQ. Patients completed the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI score before surgery, and at 2 years after surgery. Surgical success was defined as a 13-point improvement from the baseline ODI scores. The cut-off value for PSQ was determined by the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC. The mean age of patients was 49.3±9.6 years, and there were 80 women. The mean time for follow-up assessment was 31±5 months (range 24-35. Post-surgical success was 79.9% (n = 123 at 2 years follow up. The mean score for the total PSQ, PSQ-minor, and PSQ-moderate were 6.0 (SD = 1.6, 5.4 (SD = 1.9 and 6.5 (SD = 1.7, respectively. Total PSQ score was also significantly correlated with the total scores of the ODI. The optimal total PSQ cut-off point was determined as > 5.2 to predict surgical success in LDH patients, with 80.0% sensitivity and 75.6% specificity (AUC-0.814, 95% CI 0.703-0.926. This study showed that the PSQ could be considered a parameter for predicting surgical success in patients with LDH, and can be useful in clinical practice.

Patient-ventilator asynchrony affects pulse pressure variation prediction of fluid responsiveness.

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Messina, Antonio; Colombo, Davide; Cammarota, Gianmaria; De Lucia, Marta; Cecconi, Maurizio; Antonelli, Massimo; Corte, Francesco Della; Navalesi, Paolo

2015-10-01

During partial ventilatory support, pulse pressure variation (PPV) fails to adequately predict fluid responsiveness. This prospective study aims to investigate whether patient-ventilator asynchrony affects PPV prediction of fluid responsiveness during pressure support ventilation (PSV). This is an observational physiological study evaluating the response to a 500-mL fluid challenge in 54 patients receiving PSV, 27 without (Synch) and 27 with asynchronies (Asynch), as assessed by visual inspection of ventilator waveforms by 2 skilled blinded physicians. The area under the curve was 0.71 (confidence interval, 0.57-0.83) for the overall population, 0.86 (confidence interval, 0.68-0.96) in the Synch group, and 0.53 (confidence interval, 0.33-0.73) in the Asynch group (P = .018). Sensitivity and specificity of PPV were 78% and 89% in the Synch group and 36% and 46% in the Asynch group. Logistic regression showed that the PPV prediction was influenced by patient-ventilator asynchrony (odds ratio, 8.8 [2.0-38.0]; P < .003). Of the 27 patients without asynchronies, 12 had a tidal volume greater than or equal to 8 mL/kg; in this subgroup, the rate of correct classification was 100%. Patient-ventilator asynchrony affects PPV performance during partial ventilatory support influencing its efficacy in predicting fluid responsiveness. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Economic sustainability in franchising: a model to predict franchisor success or failure

OpenAIRE

Calderón Monge, Esther; Pastor Sanz, Ivan .; Huerta Zavala, Pilar Angélica

2017-01-01

As a business model, franchising makes a major contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). A model that predicts franchisor success or failure is therefore necessary to ensure economic sustainability. In this study, such a model was developed by applying Lasso regression to a sample of franchises operating between 2002 and 2013. For franchises with the highest likelihood of survival, the franchise fees and the ratio of company-owned to franchised outlets were suited to the age ...

Predictive value of low tube voltage and dual-energy CT for successful shock wave lithotripsy: an in vitro study.

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Largo, Remo; Stolzmann, Paul; Fankhauser, Christian D; Poyet, Cédric; Wolfsgruber, Pirmin; Sulser, Tullio; Alkadhi, Hatem; Winklhofer, Sebastian

2016-06-01

This study investigates the capabilities of low tube voltage computed tomography (CT) and dual-energy CT (DECT) for predicting successful shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) of urinary stones in vitro. A total of 33 urinary calculi (six different chemical compositions; mean size 6 ± 3 mm) were scanned using a dual-source CT machine with single- (120 kVp) and dual-energy settings (80/150, 100/150 Sn kVp) resulting in six different datasets. The attenuation (Hounsfield Units) of calculi was measured on single-energy CT images and the dual-energy indices (DEIs) were calculated from DECT acquisitions. Calculi underwent SWL and the number of shock waves for successful disintegration was recorded. The prediction of required shock waves regarding stone attenuation/DEI was calculated using regression analysis (adjusted for stone size and composition) and the correlation between CT attenuation/DEI and the number of shock waves was assessed for all datasets. The median number of shock waves for successful stone disintegration was 72 (interquartile range 30-361). CT attenuation/DEI of stones was a significant, independent predictor (P waves with the best prediction at 80 kVp (β estimate 0.576) (P waves ranged between ρ = 0.31 and 0.68 showing the best correlation at 80 kVp (P < 0.001). The attenuation of urinary stones at low tube voltage CT is the best predictor for successful stone disintegration, being independent of stone composition and size. DECT shows no added value for predicting the success of SWL.

Explained variation and predictive accuracy in general parametric statistical models: the role of model misspecification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosthøj, Susanne; Keiding, Niels

2004-01-01

When studying a regression model measures of explained variation are used to assess the degree to which the covariates determine the outcome of interest. Measures of predictive accuracy are used to assess the accuracy of the predictions based on the covariates and the regression model. We give a ...... a detailed and general introduction to the two measures and the estimation procedures. The framework we set up allows for a study of the effect of misspecification on the quantities estimated. We also introduce a generalization to survival analysis....

Perceived emotional intelligence, general intelligence and early professional success: predictive and incremental validity

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José-Manuel de Haro

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Although the study of factors affecting career success has shown connections between biographical and other aspects related to ability, knowledge and personality, few studies have examined the relationship between emotional intelligence and professional success at the initial career stage. When these studies were carried out, the results showed significant relationships between the dimensions of emotional intelligence (emotional self-awareness, self-regulation, social awareness or social skills and the level of professional competence. In this paper, we analyze the relationship between perceived emotional intelligence, measured by the Trait Meta-Mood Scale (TMMS-24 questionnaire, general intelligence assessed by the Cattell factor "g" test, scale 3, and extrinsic indicators of career success, in a sample of 130 graduates at the beginning of their careers. Results from hierarchical regression analysis indicate that emotional intelligence makes a specific contribution to the prediction of salary, after controlling the general intelligence effect. The perceived emotional intelligence dimensions of TMMS repair, TMMS attention and sex show a higher correlation and make a greater contribution to professional success than general intelligence. The implications of these results for the development of socio-emotional skills among University graduates are discussed.

Voice and Handgrip Strength Predict Reproductive Success in a Group of Indigenous African Females

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Sorokowska, Agnieszka; Sorokowski, Piotr; Mberira, Mara; Bartels, Astrid; Gallup, Gordon G.

2012-01-01

Evolutionary accounts of human traits are often based on proxies for genetic fitness (e.g., number of sex partners, facial attractiveness). Instead of using proxies, actual differences in reproductive success is a more direct measure of Darwinian fitness. Certain voice acoustics such as fundamental frequency and measures of health such as handgrip strength correlate with proxies of fitness, yet there are few studies showing the relation of these traits to reproduction. Here, we explore whether the fundamental frequency of the voice and handgrip strength account for differences in actual reproduction among a population of natural fertility humans. Our results show that both fundamental frequency and handgrip strength predict several measures of reproductive success among a group of indigenous Namibian females, particularly amongst the elderly, with weight also predicting reproductive outcomes among males. These findings demonstrate that both hormonally regulated and phenotypic quality markers can be used as measures of Darwinian fitness among humans living under conditions that resemble the evolutionary environment of Homo sapiens. We also argue that these findings provide support for the Grandmother Hypothesis. PMID:22870251

Genetic Programming for Sea Level Predictions in an Island Environment

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M.A. Ghorbani

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Accurate predictions of sea-level are important for geodetic applications, navigation, coastal, industrial and tourist activities. In the current work, the Genetic Programming (GP and artificial neural networks (ANNs were applied to forecast half-daily and daily sea-level variations from 12 hours to 5 days ahead. The measurements at the Cocos (Keeling Islands in the Indian Ocean were used for training and testing of the employed artificial intelligence techniques. A comparison was performed of the predictions from the GP model and the ANN simulations. Based on the comparison outcomes, it was found that the Genetic Programming approach can be successfully employed in forecasting of sea level variations.

Using an expiratory resistor, arterial pulse pressure variations predict fluid responsiveness during spontaneous breathing: an experimental porcine study.

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Dahl, Michael K; Vistisen, Simon T; Koefoed-Nielsen, Jacob; Larsson, Anders

2009-01-01

Fluid responsiveness prediction is difficult in spontaneously breathing patients. Because the swings in intrathoracic pressure are minor during spontaneous breathing, dynamic parameters like pulse pressure variation (PPV) and systolic pressure variation (SPV) are usually small. We hypothesized that during spontaneous breathing, inspiratory and/or expiratory resistors could induce high arterial pressure variations at hypovolemia and low variations at normovolemia and hypervolemia. Furthermore, we hypothesized that SPV and PPV could predict fluid responsiveness under these conditions. Eight prone, anesthetized and spontaneously breathing pigs (20 to 25 kg) were subjected to a sequence of 30% hypovolemia, normovolemia, and 20% and 40% hypervolemia. At each volemic level, the pigs breathed in a randomized order either through an inspiratory and/or an expiratory threshold resistor (7.5 cmH2O) or only through the tracheal tube without any resistor. Hemodynamic and respiratory variables were measured during the breathing modes. Fluid responsiveness was defined as a 15% increase in stroke volume (DeltaSV) following fluid loading. Stroke volume was significantly lower at hypovolemia compared with normovolemia, but no differences were found between normovolemia and 20% or 40% hypervolemia. Compared with breathing through no resistor, SPV was magnified by all resistors at hypovolemia whereas there were no changes at normovolemia and hypervolemia. PPV was magnified by the inspiratory resistor and the combined inspiratory and expiratory resistor. Regression analysis of SPV or PPV versus DeltaSV showed the highest R2 (0.83 for SPV and 0.52 for PPV) when the expiratory resistor was applied. The corresponding sensitivity and specificity for prediction of fluid responsiveness were 100% and 100%, respectively, for SPV and 100% and 81%, respectively, for PPV. Inspiratory and/or expiratory threshold resistors magnified SPV and PPV in spontaneously breathing pigs during hypovolemia

Predicting College Success: Achievement, Demographic, and Psychosocial Predictors of First-Semester College Grade Point Average

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Saltonstall, Margot

2013-01-01

This study seeks to advance and expand research on college student success. Using multinomial logistic regression analysis, the study investigates the contribution of psychosocial variables above and beyond traditional achievement and demographic measures to predicting first-semester college grade point average (GPA). It also investigates if…

Testing predictions of forest succession using long-term measurements: 100 yrs of observations in the Oregon Cascades

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Mark E. Harmon; Robert J. Pabst

2015-01-01

Question: Many predictions about forest succession have been based on chronosequences. Are these predictions – at the population, community and ecosystemlevel – consistent with long-termmeasurements in permanent plots? Location: Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco dominated forest in western Oregon, US.Methods: Over a 100-yr period,...

Spatial variation and prediction of forest biomass in a heterogeneous landscape

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

S.Lamsal; D.M.Rizzo; R.K.Meentemeyer

2012-01-01

Large areas assessments of forest biomass distribution are a challenge in heterogeneous landscapes,where variations in tree growth and species composition occur over short distances.In this study,we use statistical and geospatial modeling on densely sampled forest biomass data to analyze the relative importance of ecological and physiographic variables as determinants of spatial variation of forest biomass in the environmentally heterogeneous region of the Big Sur,California.We estimated biomass in 280 forest plots (one plot per 2.85 km2) and measured an array of ecological (vegetation community type,distance to edge,amount of surrounding non-forest vegetation,soil properties,fire history) and physiographic drivers (elevation,potential soil moisture and solar radiation,proximity to the coast) of tree growth at each plot location.Our geostatistical analyses revealed that biomass distribution is spatially structured and autocorrelated up to 3.1 km.Regression tree (RT) models showed that both physiographic and ecological factors influenced biomass distribution.Across randomly selected sample densities (sample size 112 to 280),ecological effects of vegetation community type and distance to forest edge,and physiographic effects of elevation,potentialsoil moisture and solar radiation were the most consistent predictors of biomass.Topographic moisture index and potential solar radiation had a positive effect on biomass,indicating the importance of topographicallymediated energy and moisture on plant growth and biomass accumulation.RT model explained 35% of the variation in biomass and spatially autocorrelated variation were retained in regession residuals.Regression kriging model,developed from RT combined with kriging of regression residuals,was used to map biomass across the Big Sur.This study demonstrates how statistical and geospatial modeling can be used to discriminate the relative importance of physiographic and ecologic effects on forest biomass and develop

Evaluation of SAMe-TT2R2 Score on Predicting Success With Extended-Interval Warfarin Monitoring.

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Hwang, Andrew Y; Carris, Nicholas W; Dietrich, Eric A; Gums, John G; Smith, Steven M

2018-06-01

In patients with stable international normalized ratios, 12-week extended-interval warfarin monitoring can be considered; however, predictors of success with this strategy are unknown. The previously validated SAMe-TT 2 R 2 score (considering sex, age, medical history, treatment, tobacco, and race) predicts anticoagulation control during standard follow-up (every 4 weeks), with lower scores associated with greater time in therapeutic range. To evaluate the ability of the SAMe-TT 2 R 2 score in predicting success with extended-interval warfarin follow-up in patients with previously stable warfarin doses. In this post hoc analysis of a single-arm feasibility study, baseline SAMe-TT 2 R 2 scores were calculated for patients with ≥1 extended-interval follow-up visit. The primary analysis assessed achieved weeks of extended-interval follow-up according to baseline SAMe-TT 2 R 2 scores. A total of 47 patients receiving chronic anticoagulation completed a median of 36 weeks of extended-interval follow-up. The median baseline SAMe-TT 2 R 2 score was 1 (range 0-5). Lower SAMe-TT 2 R 2 scores appeared to be associated with greater duration of extended-interval follow-up achieved, though the differences between scores were not statistically significant. No individual variable of the SAMe-TT 2 R 2 score was associated with achieved weeks of extended-interval follow-up. Analysis of additional patient factors found that longer duration (≥24 weeks) of prior stable treatment was significantly associated with greater weeks of extended-interval follow-up completed ( P = 0.04). Conclusion and Relevance: This pilot study provides limited evidence that the SAMe-TT 2 R 2 score predicts success with extended-interval warfarin follow-up but requires confirmation in a larger study. Further research is also necessary to establish additional predictors of successful extended-interval warfarin follow-up.

Successful emotion regulation is predicted by amygdala activity and aspects of personality: A latent variable approach.

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Morawetz, Carmen; Alexandrowicz, Rainer W; Heekeren, Hauke R

2017-04-01

The experience of emotions and their cognitive control are based upon neural responses in prefrontal and subcortical regions and could be affected by personality and temperamental traits. Previous studies established an association between activity in reappraisal-related brain regions (e.g., inferior frontal gyrus and amygdala) and emotion regulation success. Given these relationships, we aimed to further elucidate how individual differences in emotion regulation skills relate to brain activity within the emotion regulation network on the one hand, and personality/temperamental traits on the other. We directly examined the relationship between personality and temperamental traits, emotion regulation success and its underlying neuronal network in a large sample (N = 82) using an explicit emotion regulation task and functional MRI (fMRI). We applied a multimethodological analysis approach, combing standard activation-based analyses with structural equation modeling. First, we found that successful downregulation is predicted by activity in key regions related to emotion processing. Second, the individual ability to successfully upregulate emotions is strongly associated with the ability to identify feelings, conscientiousness, and neuroticism. Third, the successful downregulation of emotion is modulated by openness to experience and habitual use of reappraisal. Fourth, the ability to regulate emotions is best predicted by a combination of brain activity and personality as well temperamental traits. Using a multimethodological analysis approach, we provide a first step toward a causal model of individual differences in emotion regulation ability by linking biological systems underlying emotion regulation with descriptive constructs. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting Student Success in a Major's Introductory Biology Course via Logistic Regression Analysis of Scientific Reasoning Ability and Mathematics Scores

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, E. David; Bowling, Bethany V.; Markle, Ross E.

2018-02-01

Studies over the last 30 years have considered various factors related to student success in introductory biology courses. While much of the available literature suggests that the best predictors of success in a college course are prior college grade point average (GPA) and class attendance, faculty often require a valuable predictor of success in those courses wherein the majority of students are in the first semester and have no previous record of college GPA or attendance. In this study, we evaluated the efficacy of the ACT Mathematics subject exam and Lawson's Classroom Test of Scientific Reasoning in predicting success in a major's introductory biology course. A logistic regression was utilized to determine the effectiveness of a combination of scientific reasoning (SR) scores and ACT math (ACT-M) scores to predict student success. In summary, we found that the model—with both SR and ACT-M as significant predictors—could be an effective predictor of student success and thus could potentially be useful in practical decision making for the course, such as directing students to support services at an early point in the semester.

Clinical Inquiry: What's the best way to predict the success of a trial of labor after a previous C-section?

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Warren, Johanna B; Hamilton, Andrew

2015-12-01

Seven validated prospective scoring systems, and one unvalidated system, predict a successful TOLAC based on a variety of clinical factors. The systems use different outcome statistics, so their predictive accuracy can't be directly compared.

Spatial glass transition temperature variations in polymer glass: application to a maltodextrin-water system.

Science.gov (United States)

van Sleeuwen, Rutger M T; Zhang, Suying; Normand, Valéry

2012-03-12

A model was developed to predict spatial glass transition temperature (T(g)) distributions in glassy maltodextrin particles during transient moisture sorption. The simulation employed a numerical mass transfer model with a concentration dependent apparent diffusion coefficient (D(app)) measured using Dynamic Vapor Sorption. The mass average moisture content increase and the associated decrease in T(g) were successfully modeled over time. Large spatial T(g) variations were predicted in the particle, resulting in a temporary broadening of the T(g) region. Temperature modulated differential scanning calorimetry confirmed that the variation in T(g) in nonequilibrated samples was larger than in equilibrated samples. This experimental broadening was characterized by an almost doubling of the T(g) breadth compared to the start of the experiment. Upon reaching equilibrium, both the experimental and predicted T(g) breadth contracted back to their initial value.

Analysis of substructural variation in families of enzymatic proteins with applications to protein function prediction

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Fofanov Viacheslav Y

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Structural variations caused by a wide range of physico-chemical and biological sources directly influence the function of a protein. For enzymatic proteins, the structure and chemistry of the catalytic binding site residues can be loosely defined as a substructure of the protein. Comparative analysis of drug-receptor substructures across and within species has been used for lead evaluation. Substructure-level similarity between the binding sites of functionally similar proteins has also been used to identify instances of convergent evolution among proteins. In functionally homologous protein families, shared chemistry and geometry at catalytic sites provide a common, local point of comparison among proteins that may differ significantly at the sequence, fold, or domain topology levels. Results This paper describes two key results that can be used separately or in combination for protein function analysis. The Family-wise Analysis of SubStructural Templates (FASST method uses all-against-all substructure comparison to determine Substructural Clusters (SCs. SCs characterize the binding site substructural variation within a protein family. In this paper we focus on examples of automatically determined SCs that can be linked to phylogenetic distance between family members, segregation by conformation, and organization by homology among convergent protein lineages. The Motif Ensemble Statistical Hypothesis (MESH framework constructs a representative motif for each protein cluster among the SCs determined by FASST to build motif ensembles that are shown through a series of function prediction experiments to improve the function prediction power of existing motifs. Conclusions FASST contributes a critical feedback and assessment step to existing binding site substructure identification methods and can be used for the thorough investigation of structure-function relationships. The application of MESH allows for an automated

Success/Failure Prediction of Noninvasive Mechanical Ventilation in Intensive Care Units. Using Multiclassifiers and Feature Selection Methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Martín-González, Félix; González-Robledo, Javier; Sánchez-Hernández, Fernando; Moreno-García, María N

2016-05-17

This paper addresses the problem of decision-making in relation to the administration of noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV) in intensive care units. Data mining methods were employed to find out the factors influencing the success/failure of NIMV and to predict its results in future patients. These artificial intelligence-based methods have not been applied in this field in spite of the good results obtained in other medical areas. Feature selection methods provided the most influential variables in the success/failure of NIMV, such as NIMV hours, PaCO2 at the start, PaO2 / FiO2 ratio at the start, hematocrit at the start or PaO2 / FiO2 ratio after two hours. These methods were also used in the preprocessing step with the aim of improving the results of the classifiers. The algorithms provided the best results when the dataset used as input was the one containing the attributes selected with the CFS method. Data mining methods can be successfully applied to determine the most influential factors in the success/failure of NIMV and also to predict NIMV results in future patients. The results provided by classifiers can be improved by preprocessing the data with feature selection techniques.

Genomic Features That Predict Allelic Imbalance in Humans Suggest Patterns of Constraint on Gene Expression Variation

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Fédrigo, Olivier; Haygood, Ralph; Mukherjee, Sayan; Wray, Gregory A.

2009-01-01

Variation in gene expression is an important contributor to phenotypic diversity within and between species. Although this variation often has a genetic component, identification of the genetic variants driving this relationship remains challenging. In particular, measurements of gene expression usually do not reveal whether the genetic basis for any observed variation lies in cis or in trans to the gene, a distinction that has direct relevance to the physical location of the underlying genetic variant, and which may also impact its evolutionary trajectory. Allelic imbalance measurements identify cis-acting genetic effects by assaying the relative contribution of the two alleles of a cis-regulatory region to gene expression within individuals. Identification of patterns that predict commonly imbalanced genes could therefore serve as a useful tool and also shed light on the evolution of cis-regulatory variation itself. Here, we show that sequence motifs, polymorphism levels, and divergence levels around a gene can be used to predict commonly imbalanced genes in a human data set. Reduction of this feature set to four factors revealed that only one factor significantly differentiated between commonly imbalanced and nonimbalanced genes. We demonstrate that these results are consistent between the original data set and a second published data set in humans obtained using different technical and statistical methods. Finally, we show that variation in the single allelic imbalance-associated factor is partially explained by the density of genes in the region of a target gene (allelic imbalance is less probable for genes in gene-dense regions), and, to a lesser extent, the evenness of expression of the gene across tissues and the magnitude of negative selection on putative regulatory regions of the gene. These results suggest that the genomic distribution of functional cis-regulatory variants in the human genome is nonrandom, perhaps due to local differences in evolutionary

“It’s Broader than Just My Work Here”: Gender Variations in Accounts of Success among Engineers in U.S. Academia

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Dilshani Sarathchandra

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Among science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM disciplines, the percentage participation of women in engineering has shown significant gains over the past few decades. However, women are still largely absent (or exist in very small numbers in tenured academic ranks in several engineering sub-fields. In this study we present female and male engineers’ varying understandings of ‘scientific success’ as a potential contributor to women’s retention and success in their (subfields. Using in-depth interviews conducted among engineering graduate students and faculty at two U.S. Northwest land-grant research universities, this study demonstrates the ‘dual’ nature in accounts of scientific success, where formal measures of success operate in tandem with informal measures. While both men and women attribute their success to formal and informal measures, gender-based variations tend to be more prevalent among informal measures. By examining these informal measures, this study highlights the context surrounding success.

A Bayesian method and its variational approximation for prediction of genomic breeding values in multiple traits

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Hayashi Takeshi

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genomic selection is an effective tool for animal and plant breeding, allowing effective individual selection without phenotypic records through the prediction of genomic breeding value (GBV. To date, genomic selection has focused on a single trait. However, actual breeding often targets multiple correlated traits, and, therefore, joint analysis taking into consideration the correlation between traits, which might result in more accurate GBV prediction than analyzing each trait separately, is suitable for multi-trait genomic selection. This would require an extension of the prediction model for single-trait GBV to multi-trait case. As the computational burden of multi-trait analysis is even higher than that of single-trait analysis, an effective computational method for constructing a multi-trait prediction model is also needed. Results We described a Bayesian regression model incorporating variable selection for jointly predicting GBVs of multiple traits and devised both an MCMC iteration and variational approximation for Bayesian estimation of parameters in this multi-trait model. The proposed Bayesian procedures with MCMC iteration and variational approximation were referred to as MCBayes and varBayes, respectively. Using simulated datasets of SNP genotypes and phenotypes for three traits with high and low heritabilities, we compared the accuracy in predicting GBVs between multi-trait and single-trait analyses as well as between MCBayes and varBayes. The results showed that, compared to single-trait analysis, multi-trait analysis enabled much more accurate GBV prediction for low-heritability traits correlated with high-heritability traits, by utilizing the correlation structure between traits, while the prediction accuracy for uncorrelated low-heritability traits was comparable or less with multi-trait analysis in comparison with single-trait analysis depending on the setting for prior probability that a SNP has zero

Total variation regularization for fMRI-based prediction of behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, Vincent; Gramfort, Alexandre; Varoquaux, Gaël; Eger, Evelyn; Thirion, Bertrand

2011-01-01

While medical imaging typically provides massive amounts of data, the extraction of relevant information for predictive diagnosis remains a difficult challenge. Functional MRI (fMRI) data, that provide an indirect measure of task-related or spontaneous neuronal activity, are classically analyzed in a mass-univariate procedure yielding statistical parametric maps. This analysis framework disregards some important principles of brain organization: population coding, distributed and overlapping representations. Multivariate pattern analysis, i.e., the prediction of behavioural variables from brain activation patterns better captures this structure. To cope with the high dimensionality of the data, the learning method has to be regularized. However, the spatial structure of the image is not taken into account in standard regularization methods, so that the extracted features are often hard to interpret. More informative and interpretable results can be obtained with the ℓ1 norm of the image gradient, a.k.a. its Total Variation (TV), as regularization. We apply for the first time this method to fMRI data, and show that TV regularization is well suited to the purpose of brain mapping while being a powerful tool for brain decoding. Moreover, this article presents the first use of TV regularization for classification. PMID:21317080

A Comparison of Logistic Regression, Neural Networks, and Classification Trees Predicting Success of Actuarial Students

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Schumacher, Phyllis; Olinsky, Alan; Quinn, John; Smith, Richard

2010-01-01

The authors extended previous research by 2 of the authors who conducted a study designed to predict the successful completion of students enrolled in an actuarial program. They used logistic regression to determine the probability of an actuarial student graduating in the major or dropping out. They compared the results of this study with those…

Factors predicting recurrence in successfully treated cases of anisometropic amblyopia

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Rohit Saxena

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Context: Recurrence after successful treatment of amblyopia is known and understanding the risk factors could help effective management. Aim: To measure incidence of recurrence in successfully treated cases of anisometropic amblyopia and evaluate factors predicting it. Settings and Design: Cohort Study at a tertiary level institution. Materials and Methods: Successfully treated anisometropic amblyopes aged 4−12 years were followed up for 1 year after stopping therapy. Best corrected visual acuity (BCVA, refractive error, stereoacuity and contrast sensitivity were evaluated at baseline and follow-up. Statistical Analysis: Intergroup analysis with appropriate tests: Chi-square test, Fisher′s exact test, Wilcoxon rank sum test and paired t-test. Results: One hundred and two patients with mean age at diagnosis 7.06 μ 1.81 years were followed-up for a mean duration of 1.0 μ 0.2 years. The mean pre-treatment BCVA (LogMAR score at diagnosis was 0.73 μ 0.36 units which improved to 0.20 μ 0.00 with treatment and after 1 year of stopping treatment was 0.22 μ 0.07. Thirteen (12.74% patients showed amblyopia recurrence during follow-up. Risk of recurrence was higher with older age of onset of treatment (6.64 μ 1.77 years without recurrence v/s 8.53 μ 1.39 years with recurrence, P = 0.0014. Greater extent of improvement of VA (P = 0.048 and final VA at stopping occlusion (P = 0.03 were associated with higher recurrence. Binocularity status or stereoacuity changes were not associated with risk of recurrence. Conclusions: Significant numbers of children suffer recurrence of amblyopia after stopping therapy. Older age, better BCVA after stopping therapy and greater magnitude of improvement in BCVA are important risk factors for recurrence. Careful follow-up is essential for early detection and management of recurrence.

Factors predicting recurrence in successfully treated cases of anisometropic amblyopia

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Saxena, Rohit; Puranik, Shraddha; Singh, Digvijay; Menon, Vimla; Sharma, Pradeep; Phuljhele, Swati

2013-01-01

Context: Recurrence after successful treatment of amblyopia is known and understanding the risk factors could help effective management. Aim: To measure incidence of recurrence in successfully treated cases of anisometropic amblyopia and evaluate factors predicting it. Settings and Design: Cohort Study at a tertiary level institution. Materials and Methods: Successfully treated anisometropic amblyopes aged 4−12 years were followed up for 1 year after stopping therapy. Best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), refractive error, stereoacuity and contrast sensitivity were evaluated at baseline and follow-up. Statistical Analysis: Intergroup analysis with appropriate tests: Chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, Wilcoxon rank sum test and paired t-test. Results: One hundred and two patients with mean age at diagnosis 7.06 ± 1.81 years were followed-up for a mean duration of 1.0 ± 0.2 years. The mean pre-treatment BCVA (LogMAR score) at diagnosis was 0.73 ± 0.36 units which improved to 0.20 ± 0.00 with treatment and after 1 year of stopping treatment was 0.22 ± 0.07. Thirteen (12.74%) patients showed amblyopia recurrence during follow-up. Risk of recurrence was higher with older age of onset of treatment (6.64 ± 1.77 years without recurrence v/s 8.53 ± 1.39 years with recurrence, P = 0.0014). Greater extent of improvement of VA (P = 0.048) and final VA at stopping occlusion (P = 0.03) were associated with higher recurrence. Binocularity status or stereoacuity changes were not associated with risk of recurrence. Conclusions: Significant numbers of children suffer recurrence of amblyopia after stopping therapy. Older age, better BCVA after stopping therapy and greater magnitude of improvement in BCVA are important risk factors for recurrence. Careful follow-up is essential for early detection and management of recurrence. PMID:24343594

Factors predicting recurrence in successfully treated cases of anisometropic amblyopia.

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Saxena, Rohit; Puranik, Shraddha; Singh, Digvijay; Menon, Vimla; Sharma, Pradeep; Phuljhele, Swati

2013-11-01

Recurrence after successful treatment of amblyopia is known and understanding the risk factors could help effective management. To measure incidence of recurrence in successfully treated cases of anisometropic amblyopia and evaluate factors predicting it. Cohort Study at a tertiary level institution. Successfully treated anisometropic amblyopes aged 4-12 years were followed up for 1 year after stopping therapy. Best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), refractive error, stereoacuity and contrast sensitivity were evaluated at baseline and follow-up. Intergroup analysis with appropriate tests: Chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, Wilcoxon rank sum test and paired t-test. One hundred and two patients with mean age at diagnosis 7.06 μ 1.81 years were followed-up for a mean duration of 1.0 μ 0.2 years. The mean pre-treatment BCVA (LogMAR score) at diagnosis was 0.73 μ 0.36 units which improved to 0.20 μ 0.00 with treatment and after 1 year of stopping treatment was 0.22 μ 0.07. Thirteen (12.74%) patients showed amblyopia recurrence during follow-up. Risk of recurrence was higher with older age of onset of treatment (6.64 μ 1.77 years without recurrence v/s 8.53 μ 1.39 years with recurrence, P = 0.0014). Greater extent of improvement of VA (P = 0.048) and final VA at stopping occlusion (P = 0.03) were associated with higher recurrence. Binocularity status or stereoacuity changes were not associated with risk of recurrence. Significant numbers of children suffer recurrence of amblyopia after stopping therapy. Older age, better BCVA after stopping therapy and greater magnitude of improvement in BCVA are important risk factors for recurrence. Careful follow-up is essential for early detection and management of recurrence.

Prediction of galactic cosmic ray intensity variation for a few (up to 10-12 years ahead on the basis of convection-diffusion and drift model

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L. I. Dorman

2005-11-01

Full Text Available We determine the dimension of the Heliosphere (modulation region, radial diffusion coefficient and other parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms of cosmic ray (CR long-term variation, depending on particle energy, the level of solar activity (SA and general solar magnetic field. This important information we obtain on the basis of CR and SA data in the past, taking into account the theory of convection-diffusion and drift global modulation of galactic CR in the Heliosphere. By using these results and the predictions which are regularly published elsewhere of expected SA variation in the near future and prediction of next future SA cycle, we may make a prediction of the expected in the near future long-term cosmic ray intensity variation. We show that by this method we may make a prediction of the expected in the near future (up to 10-12 years, and may be more, in dependence for what period can be made definite prediction of SA galactic cosmic ray intensity variation in the interplanetary space on different distances from the Sun, in the Earth's magnetosphere, and in the atmosphere at different altitudes and latitudes.

Basal follicle stimulating hormone and leptin on the day of hCG administration predict successful fertilization in in vitro fertilization

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Andon Hestiantoro

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Background: Successful pregnancy in in vitro fertilization (IVF program depends on multiple factors. This study aimed to determine whether age, body mass index (BMI, basal follicle stimulating hormone (FSH, estradiol, and leptin on the day of trigger ovulation with human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG might be used as predictor for successful oocyte fertilization in in vitro fertilization (IVF program.Methods: This is a cross sectional study conducted in Yasmin Fertility Clinic, Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia. Forty participating patients underwent IVF program, excluding smokers, patients with diabetic, morbid obesity, and severe oligospermia or azoospermia. Age, BMI, basal FSH, estradiol, leptin on the day of hCG administration, oocyte count on oocyte retrieval, the number of mature oocyte, and fertility rate were analyzed using bivariate and multivariate analysis to determine which eligible factors play role in predicting the successful of fertilization.Results: Significant correlation was found between basal FSH level and serum leptin/oocyte ratio on the day of hCG administration with successful fertilization. We found probability formula as follows: 1/(1+exp –(6.2 - 0.4(leptin serum/oocyte ratio - 0.8(basal FSH, with 77.8% sensitivity, 77.8% specificity, and AUC levels of 85.6% indicating strong predictability. Probability of successful fertilization related to basal FSH level of 5.90 mIU/mL and leptin serum/oocyte ratio of 3.98.Conclusion: The formula consisting of basal FSH and leptin serum/oocyte ratio on the day of trigger ovulation was capable in predicting the probability of successful fertilization in IVF procedure.

Application Of Data Mining Techniques For Student Success And Failure Prediction The Case Of DebreMarkos University

OpenAIRE

Muluken Alemu Yehuala

2015-01-01

Abstract This research work has investigated the potential applicability of data mining technology to predict student success and failure cases on University students datasets. CRISP-DM Cross Industry Standard Process for Data mining is a data mining methodology to be used by the research. Classification and prediction data mining functionalities are used to extract hidden patterns from students data. These patterns can be seen in relation to different variables in the students records. The ...

Ultrasonographic evaluation of myometrial thickness and prediction of a successful external cephalic version.

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Buhimschi, Catalin S; Buhimschi, Irina A; Wehrum, Mark J; Molaskey-Jones, Sherry; Sfakianaki, Anna K; Pettker, Christian M; Thung, Stephen; Campbell, Katherine H; Dulay, Antonette T; Funai, Edmund F; Bahtiyar, Mert O

2011-10-01

To test the hypothesis that myometrial thickness predicts the success of external cephalic version. Abdominal ultrasonographic scans were performed in 114 consecutive pregnant women with breech singletons before an external cephalic version maneuver. Myometrial thickness was measured by a standardized protocol at three sites: the lower segment, midanterior wall, and the fundal uterine wall. Independent variables analyzed in conjunction with myometrial thickness were: maternal age, parity, body mass index, abdominal wall thickness, estimated fetal weight, amniotic fluid index, placental thickness and location, fetal spine position, breech type, and delivery outcomes such as final mode of delivery and birth weight. Successful version was associated with a thicker ultrasonographic fundal myometrium (unsuccessful: 6.7 [5.5-8.4] compared with successful: 7.4 [6.6-9.7] mm, P=.037). Multivariate regression analysis showed that increased fundal myometrial thickness, high amniotic fluid index, and nonfrank breech presentation were the strongest independent predictors of external cephalic version success (Pexternal cephalic versions (fundal myometrial thickness: odds ratio [OR] 2.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-5.2, P=.029; amniotic fluid index: OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.3-6.0, P=.008). Combining the two variables resulted in an absolute risk reduction for a failed version of 27.6% (95% CI 7.1-48.1) and a number needed to treat of four (95% CI 2.1-14.2). Fundal myometrial thickness and amniotic fluid index contribute to success of external cephalic version and their evaluation can be easily incorporated in algorithms before the procedure. III.

Weight loss predictability by plasma metabolic signatures in adults with obesity and morbid obesity of the DiOGenes study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stroeve, J.H.M.; Saccenti, E.; Bouwman, J.; Dane, A.; Strassburg, K.; Vervoort, J.; Hankemeier, T.; Astrup, A.; Smilde, A.K.; Ommen, B. van; Saris, W.H.M.

2016-01-01

Objective: Aim is to predict successful weight loss by metabolic signatures at baseline and to identify which differences in metabolic status may underlie variations in weight loss success. Methods: In DiOGenes, a randomized, controlled trial, weight loss was induced using a low calorie diet (800

From field to region yield predictions in response to pedo-climatic variations in Eastern Canada

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JÉGO, G.; Pattey, E.; Liu, J.

2013-12-01

The increase in global population coupled with new pressures to produce energy and bioproducts from agricultural land requires an increase in crop productivity. However, the influence of climate and soil variations on crop production and environmental performance is not fully understood and accounted for to define more sustainable and economical management strategies. Regional crop modeling can be a great tool for understanding the impact of climate variations on crop production, for planning grain handling and for assessing the impact of agriculture on the environment, but it is often limited by the availability of input data. The STICS ("Simulateur mulTIdisciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard") crop model, developed by INRA (France) is a functional crop model which has a built-in module to optimize several input parameters by minimizing the difference between calculated and measured output variables, such as Leaf Area Index (LAI). STICS crop model was adapted to the short growing season of the Mixedwood Plains Ecozone using field experiments results, to predict biomass and yield of soybean, spring wheat and corn. To minimize the numbers of inference required for regional applications, 'generic' cultivars rather than specific ones have been calibrated in STICS. After the calibration of several model parameters, the root mean square error (RMSE) of yield and biomass predictions ranged from 10% to 30% for the three crops. A bit more scattering was obtained for LAI (20%prediction to climate variations. Using RS data to re-initialize input parameters that are not readily available (e.g. seeding date) is considered an effective way

ATHENS SEASONAL VARIATION OF GROUND RESISTANCE PREDICTION USING NEURAL NETWORKS

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S. Anbazhagan

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The objective in ground resistance is to attain the most minimal ground safety esteem conceivable that bodes well monetarily and physically. An application of artificial neural networks (ANN to presage and relegation has been growing rapidly due to sundry unique characteristics of ANN models. A decent forecast is able to capture the dubiousness associated with those ground resistance. A portion of the key instabilities are soil composition, moisture content, temperature, ground electrodes and spacing of the electrodes. Propelled by this need, this paper endeavors to develop a generalized regression neural network (GRNN to predict the ground resistance. The GRNN has a single design parameter and expeditious learning and efficacious modeling for nonlinear time series. The precision of the forecast is applied to the Athens seasonal variation of ground resistance that shows the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Validation of prediction model for successful vaginal birth after Cesarean delivery based on sonographic assessment of hysterotomy scar.

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Baranov, A; Salvesen, K Å; Vikhareva, O

2018-02-01

To validate a prediction model for successful vaginal birth after Cesarean delivery (VBAC) based on sonographic assessment of the hysterotomy scar, in a Swedish population. Data were collected from a prospective cohort study. We recruited non-pregnant women aged 18-35 years who had undergone one previous low-transverse Cesarean delivery at ≥ 37 gestational weeks and had had no other uterine surgery. Participants who subsequently became pregnant underwent transvaginal ultrasound examination of the Cesarean hysterotomy scar at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 and at 19 + 0 to 21 + 6 gestational weeks. Thickness of the myometrium at the thinnest part of the scar area was measured. After delivery, information on pregnancy outcome was retrieved from hospital records. Individual probabilities of successful VBAC were calculated using a previously published model. Predicted individual probabilities were divided into deciles. For each decile, observed VBAC rates were calculated. To assess the accuracy of the prediction model, receiver-operating characteristics curves were constructed and the areas under the curves (AUC) were calculated. Complete sonographic data were available for 120 women. Eighty (67%) women underwent trial of labor after Cesarean delivery (TOLAC) with VBAC occurring in 70 (88%) cases. The scar was visible in all 80 women at the first-trimester scan and in 54 (68%) women at the second-trimester scan. AUC was 0.44 (95% CI, 0.28-0.60) among all women who underwent TOLAC and 0.51 (95% CI, 0.32-0.71) among those with the scar visible sonographically at both ultrasound examinations. The prediction model demonstrated poor accuracy for prediction of successful VBAC in our Swedish population. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Contrasting patterns of leaf trait variation among and within species during tropical dry forest succession in Costa Rica.

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Derroire, Géraldine; Powers, Jennifer S; Hulshof, Catherine M; Cárdenas Varela, Luis E; Healey, John R

2018-01-10

A coordinated response to environmental drivers amongst individual functional traits is central to the plant strategy concept. However, whether the trait co-ordination observed at the global scale occurs at other ecological scales (especially within species) remains an open question. Here, for sapling communities of two tropical dry forest types in Costa Rica, we show large differences amongst traits in the relative contribution of species turnover and intraspecific variation to their directional changes in response to environmental changes along a successional gradient. We studied the response of functional traits associated with the leaf economics spectrum and drought tolerance using intensive sampling to analyse inter- and intra-specific responses to environmental changes and ontogeny. Although the overall functional composition of the sapling communities changed during succession more through species turnover than through intraspecific trait variation, their relative contributions differed greatly amongst traits. For instance, community mean specific leaf area changed mostly due to intraspecific variation. Traits of the leaf economics spectrum showed decoupled responses to environmental drivers and ontogeny. These findings emphasise how divergent ecological mechanisms combine to cause great differences in changes of individual functional traits over environmental gradients and ecological scales.

Reproductive success of Whiskered Tern Chlidonias hybrida in eastern Spain in relation to water level variation.

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Ortiz Lledó, Álvaro; Vidal Mateo, Javier; Urios Moliner, Vicente

2018-01-01

A study on the Whiskered Tern Chlidonias hybrida was carried out between 2002 and 2009 in wetlands of eastern Spain to evaluate how water level fluctuation affects its reproductive success (hatching, fledgling and breeding success). This species is catalogued as Vulnerable in Spain and has an unfavorable conservation status in Europe. Our study includes 18 sampling areas from five wetlands, covering a total of 663 nests, 1,618 eggs, 777 nestlings and 225 fledglings. The colonies were visited at least twice per week in breeding period. The number of eggs and/or nestlings present in each nest were annotated each time the colonies were visited with the aim to compare the evolution of these parameters with time. Hatching success was calculated as the proportion of egg that hatched successfully. Fledgling success and breeding success were calculated as the proportion of chicks that fledged successfully and the proportion of eggs that produced fledglings. We used the Kruskal-Wallis test to analyze the differences in the dependent variables hatching, fledgling and breeding success among the wetlands and the sampling areas. We explored the relationship between the different reproductive success with the average fluctuation rate and the anchoring depth of nests, using statistics of the linear regression. It was observed that the reproductive success varied significantly in the interaction among the different categories of water level fluctuation and the different areas (using the Kruskal-Wallis test). Our records showed that pronounced variations in water level destroyed several nests, which affected the Whiskered Tern reproductive success. Considering all events that occurred in 18 areas, the mean (±SD) of nests, eggs and nestlings that were lost after water level fluctuations were of 25.60 ± 21.79%, 32.06 ± 27.58% and 31.91 ± 21.28% respectively, also including the effects of rain and predation. Unfavorable climatic events, such as strong wind, rain or hail, also

Reproductive success of Whiskered Tern Chlidonias hybrida in eastern Spain in relation to water level variation

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Álvaro Ortiz Lledó

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Background A study on the Whiskered Tern Chlidonias hybrida was carried out between 2002 and 2009 in wetlands of eastern Spain to evaluate how water level fluctuation affects its reproductive success (hatching, fledgling and breeding success. This species is catalogued as Vulnerable in Spain and has an unfavorable conservation status in Europe. Methods Our study includes 18 sampling areas from five wetlands, covering a total of 663 nests, 1,618 eggs, 777 nestlings and 225 fledglings. The colonies were visited at least twice per week in breeding period. The number of eggs and/or nestlings present in each nest were annotated each time the colonies were visited with the aim to compare the evolution of these parameters with time. Hatching success was calculated as the proportion of egg that hatched successfully. Fledgling success and breeding success were calculated as the proportion of chicks that fledged successfully and the proportion of eggs that produced fledglings. We used the Kruskal–Wallis test to analyze the differences in the dependent variables hatching, fledgling and breeding success among the wetlands and the sampling areas. We explored the relationship between the different reproductive success with the average fluctuation rate and the anchoring depth of nests, using statistics of the linear regression. Results It was observed that the reproductive success varied significantly in the interaction among the different categories of water level fluctuation and the different areas (using the Kruskal–Wallis test. Our records showed that pronounced variations in water level destroyed several nests, which affected the Whiskered Tern reproductive success. Considering all events that occurred in 18 areas, the mean (±SD of nests, eggs and nestlings that were lost after water level fluctuations were of 25.60 ± 21.79%, 32.06 ± 27.58% and 31.91 ± 21.28% respectively, also including the effects of rain and predation. Discussion Unfavorable

Can maintaining cognitive function at 65 years old predict successful ageing 6 years later? The PROOF study.

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Castro-Lionard, Karine; Thomas-Antérion, Catherine; Crawford-Achour, Emilie; Rouch, Isabelle; Trombert-Paviot, Béatrice; Barthélémy, Jean-Claude; Laurent, Bernard; Roche, Frédéric; Gonthier, Régis

2011-03-01

preservation of cognitive abilities is required to have a good quality of life. The predictive value of cognitive functioning at 65 years old on successful ageing 6 years later is not established. nine hundred and seventy-six questionnaires were sent by mail to a sample of healthy and voluntary French pensioners. Successful ageing was defined through health status and well-being. Cognitive abilities had been assessed 6 years earlier according to an objective method (Free and Cued Selective Recall Reminding Test (FCSRT), the Benton visual retention test and the similarities subtest of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised) and a subjective one (Goldberg's anxiety scale, Mac Nair's scale and a Visual Analogue Scale to evaluate memory abilities change in the last 5 years). six hundred and eighty-six questionnaires could be analysed. The mean age was 72.9 ± 1.2 years old with 59% of women and 99% lived at home. Well-being was negatively correlated with the FCSRT (r = -0.08, P = 0.0318) but positively related with the Benton (r = 0.09, P = 0.0125) and the similarities tests (r = 0.09, P = 0.0118). There is a negative correlation between anxious and cognitive complaints measured at baseline, and successful ageing indicators 6 years later. preservation of cognitive abilities at the age of retirement can predict a successful ageing 6 years later. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00759304.

Emotional intelligence predicts success in medical school.

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Libbrecht, Nele; Lievens, Filip; Carette, Bernd; Côté, Stéphane

2014-02-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that effective communication and interpersonal sensitivity during interactions between doctors and patients impact therapeutic outcomes. There is an important need to identify predictors of these behaviors, because traditional tests used in medical admissions offer limited predictions of "bedside manners" in medical practice. This study examined whether emotional intelligence would predict the performance of 367 medical students in medical school courses on communication and interpersonal sensitivity. One of the dimensions of emotional intelligence, the ability to regulate emotions, predicted performance in courses on communication and interpersonal sensitivity over the next 3 years of medical school, over and above cognitive ability and conscientiousness. Emotional intelligence did not predict performance on courses on medical subject domains. The results suggest that medical schools may better predict who will communicate effectively and show interpersonal sensitivity if they include measures of emotional intelligence in their admission systems. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Analysis of successive data sets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Spreeuwers, Lieuwe Jan; Breeuwer, Marcel; Haselhoff, Eltjo Hans

2008-01-01

The invention relates to the analysis of successive data sets. A local intensity variation is formed from such successive data sets, that is, from data values in successive data sets at corresponding positions in each of the data sets. A region of interest is localized in the individual data sets on

Analysis of successive data sets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Spreeuwers, Lieuwe Jan; Breeuwer, Marcel; Haselhoff, Eltjo Hans

2002-01-01

The invention relates to the analysis of successive data sets. A local intensity variation is formed from such successive data sets, that is, from data values in successive data sets at corresponding positions in each of the data sets. A region of interest is localized in the individual data sets on

Experimental sources of variation in avian energetics: estimated basal metabolic rate decreases with successive measurements.

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Jacobs, Paul J; McKechnie, Andrew E

2014-01-01

Basal metabolic rate (BMR) is one of the most widely used metabolic variables in endotherm ecological and evolutionary physiology. Surprisingly few studies have investigated how BMR is influenced by experimental and analytical variables over and above the standardized conditions required for minimum normothermic resting metabolism. We tested whether avian BMR is affected by habituation to the conditions experienced during laboratory gas exchange measurements by measuring BMR five times in succession in budgerigars (Melopsittacus undulatus) housed under constant temperature and photoperiod. Both the magnitude and the variability of BMR decreased significantly with repeated measurements, from 0.410 ± 0.092 W (n = 9) during the first measurement to 0.285 ± 0.042 W (n = 9) during the fifth measurement. Thus, estimated BMR decreased by ∼30% within individuals solely on account of the number of times they had previously experienced the experimental conditions. The most likely explanation for these results is an attenuation with repeated exposure of the acute stress response induced by birds being handled and placed in respirometry chambers. Our data suggest that habituation to experimental conditions is potentially an important determinant of observed BMR, and this source of variation needs to be taken into account in future studies of metabolic variation among individuals, populations, and species.

Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

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Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

1997-01-01

The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

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Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

Landscape genomic prediction for restoration of a Eucalyptus foundation species under climate change.

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Supple, Megan Ann; Bragg, Jason G; Broadhurst, Linda M; Nicotra, Adrienne B; Byrne, Margaret; Andrew, Rose L; Widdup, Abigail; Aitken, Nicola C; Borevitz, Justin O

2018-04-24

As species face rapid environmental change, we can build resilient populations through restoration projects that incorporate predicted future climates into seed sourcing decisions. Eucalyptus melliodora is a foundation species of a critically endangered community in Australia that is a target for restoration. We examined genomic and phenotypic variation to make empirical based recommendations for seed sourcing. We examined isolation by distance and isolation by environment, determining high levels of gene flow extending for 500 km and correlations with climate and soil variables. Growth experiments revealed extensive phenotypic variation both within and among sampling sites, but no site-specific differentiation in phenotypic plasticity. Model predictions suggest that seed can be sourced broadly across the landscape, providing ample diversity for adaptation to environmental change. Application of our landscape genomic model to E. melliodora restoration projects can identify genomic variation suitable for predicted future climates, thereby increasing the long term probability of successful restoration. © 2018, Supple et al.

Perceived Academic Control and Academic Emotions Predict Undergraduate University Student Success: Examining Effects on Dropout Intention and Achievement.

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Respondek, Lisa; Seufert, Tina; Stupnisky, Robert; Nett, Ulrike E

2017-01-01

The present study addressed concerns over the high risk of university students' academic failure. It examined how perceived academic control and academic emotions predict undergraduate students' academic success, conceptualized as both low dropout intention and high achievement (indicated by GPA). A cross-sectional survey was administered to 883 undergraduate students across all disciplines of a German STEM orientated university. The study additionally compared freshman students ( N = 597) vs. second-year students ( N = 286). Using structural equation modeling, for the overall sample of undergraduate students we found that perceived academic control positively predicted enjoyment and achievement, as well as negatively predicted boredom and anxiety. The prediction of dropout intention by perceived academic control was fully mediated via anxiety. When taking perceived academic control into account, we found no specific impact of enjoyment or boredom on the intention to dropout and no specific impact of all three academic emotions on achievement. The multi-group analysis showed, however, that perceived academic control, enjoyment, and boredom among second-year students had a direct relationship with dropout intention. A major contribution of the present study was demonstrating the important roles of perceived academic control and anxiety in undergraduate students' academic success. Concerning corresponding institutional support and future research, the results suggested distinguishing incoming from advanced undergraduate students.

Developing a Model and Applications for Probabilities of Student Success: A Case Study of Predictive Analytics

Science.gov (United States)

Calvert, Carol Elaine

2014-01-01

This case study relates to distance learning students on open access courses. It demonstrates the use of predictive analytics to generate a model of the probabilities of success and retention at different points, or milestones, in a student journey. A core set of explanatory variables has been established and their varying relative importance at…

Cytological Sampling Versus Forceps Biopsy During Percutaneous Transhepatic Biliary Drainage and Analysis of Factors Predicting Success

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tapping, C. R.; Byass, O. R.; Cast, J. E. I., E-mail: james.cast@hey.nhs.uk [Hull Royal Infirmary, Department of Radiology (United Kingdom)

2012-08-15

Purpose: To assess the accuracy of cytological sampling and forceps biopsy in obstructing biliary lesions and to identify factors predictive of success. Methods: Consecutive patients (n = 119) with suspected malignant inoperable obstructive jaundice treated with percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage during 7 years were included (60 male; mean age 72.5 years). All patients underwent forceps biopsy plus cytological sampling by washing the forceps device in cytological solution. Patient history, procedural and pathological records, and clinical follow-up were reviewed. Statistical analysis included chi-square test and multivariate regression analysis. Results: Histological diagnosis after forceps biopsy was more successful than cytology: Sensitivity was 78 versus 61%, and negative predictive value was 30 versus 19%. Cytology results were never positive when the forceps biopsy was negative. The cytological sample was negative and forceps sample positive in 2 cases of cholangiocarcinoma, 16 cases of pancreatic carcinoma, and 1 case of benign disease. Diagnostic accuracy was predicted by low bilirubin (p < 0.001), aspartate transaminase (p < 0.05), and white cell count (p {<=} 0.05). Conclusions: This technique is safe and effective and is recommended for histological diagnosis during PTBD in patients with inoperable malignant biliary strictures. Diagnostic yield is greater when bilirubin levels are low and there is no sepsis; histological diagnosis by way of forceps biopsy renders cytological sampling unnecessary.

Comparison of Regression Techniques to Predict Response of Oilseed Rape Yield to Variation in Climatic Conditions in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sharif, Behzad; Makowski, David; Plauborg, Finn

2017-01-01

Statistical regression models represent alternatives to process-based dynamic models for predicting the response of crop yields to variation in climatic conditions. Regression models can be used to quantify the effect of change in temperature and precipitation on yields. However, it is difficult ...

Variational transition-state theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Truhlar, D.G.; Garrett, B.C.

1980-01-01

A general introduction to and some results from studies of a procedure called variational transition-state theory are presented. A fundamental assumption of this theory is that the net rate of forward reaction at equilibrium equals the equilibrium flux in the product direction through the transition state where the transition state is a surface in phase space dividing reactants from products. Classical generalized-transition-state-theory calculations for nine collinear systems are compared to classical trajectory calculations. This new technique should provide useful insight into the successes and failures of the conventional theory and useful quantitative estimates of possible errors on the predictions of conventional transition-state theory. This should also contribute to a more accurate theory now available for the practical calculations of chemical reaction rates and thermochemical and structural interpretations of rate processes

Fundamental Frequency Variation of Neonatal Spontaneous Crying Predicts Language Acquisition in Preterm and Term Infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Shinya, Yuta; Kawai, Masahiko; Niwa, Fusako; Imafuku, Masahiro; Myowa, Masako

2017-01-01

Spontaneous cries of infants exhibit rich melodic features (i.e., time variation of fundamental frequency [ F 0 ]) even during the neonatal period, and the development of these characteristics might provide an essential base for later expressive prosody in language. However, little is known about the melodic features of spontaneous cries in preterm infants, who have a higher risk of later language-related problems. Thus, the present study investigated how preterm birth influenced melodic features of spontaneous crying at term-equivalent age as well as how these melodic features related to language outcomes at 18 months of corrected age in preterm and term infants. At term, moderate-to-late preterm (MLP) infants showed spontaneous cries with significantly higher F 0 variation and melody complexity than term infants, while there were no significant differences between very preterm (VP) and term infants. Furthermore, larger F 0 variation within cry series at term was significantly related to better language and cognitive outcomes, particularly expressive language skills, at 18 months. On the other hand, no other melodic features at term predicted any developmental outcomes at 18 months. The present results suggest that the additional postnatal vocal experience of MLP preterm infants increased F 0 variation and the complexity of spontaneous cries at term. Additionally, the increases in F 0 variation may partly reflect the development of voluntary vocal control, which, in turn, contributes to expressive language in infancy.

Predicting start-up success with machine learning

OpenAIRE

Bento, Francisco Ramadas da Silva Ribeiro

2018-01-01

Start-ups are becoming the motor that moves our economy. Google, Apple, or more recently Airbnb and Uber are companies with tremendous impact in worldwide economy, social interactions and government. Over the past decade, both in the US and Europe, there has been an exponential growth in start-up formation. Thus, it seems a relevant challenge understanding what makes this type of high-risk ventures successful and as such, attractive to investors and entrepreneurs. Success for a start-up is de...

Predicting seasonal variations in coastal seabird habitats in the English Channel and the Bay of Biscay

Science.gov (United States)

Virgili, A.; Lambert, C.; Pettex, E.; Dorémus, G.; Van Canneyt, O.; Ridoux, V.

2017-07-01

Seabirds, like all animals, have to live in suitable habitats to fulfil their energetic needs for both somatic and reproductive growth and maintenance. Apart from migration trips, all coastal seabirds are linked to the coast, because they need to return daily to land for resting or breeding. Their use of marine habitats strongly depends on their biology, but also on environmental conditions, and can be described using habitat models. This study aimed to: (1) identify the processes that mostly influence seabird distributions along the coasts of the English Channel and the Bay of Biscay; (2) determine seasonal variations of these processes, (3) provide prediction maps that describe the species distributions. We collected data of coastal seabird sightings from aerial surveys carried out in the English Channel and the eastern North Atlantic in the winter 2011-2012 and summer 2012. We classified seabirds into morphological groups and described their habitats using physiographic and oceanographic variables in Generalised Additive Models (GAMs). Finally, we produced maps of predicted distributions by season for each group. The distributions of coastal seabirds were essentially determined by the distance to the nearest coast, with a weaker influence of oceanographic variables. The nature of the substrate, sand or rock, combined with the timing of reproduction, also contributed to determine seasonal at-sea distributions for some species. The highest densities were predicted near the coast, particularly in bays and estuaries for strictly coastal species with possible variations depending on the season. From this study, we were able to predict the seasonal distribution of the studied species according to varying environmental parameters that changed over time, allowing us to understand better their behaviour and ecology.

Variations in roughness predictions (flume experiments)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Noordam, Daniëlle; Blom, Astrid; van der Klis, H.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Makaske, A.; Wolfert, H.P.; van Os, A.G.

2005-01-01

Data of flume experiments with bed forms are used to analyze and compare different roughness predictors. In this study, the hydraulic roughness consists of grain roughness and form roughness. We predict the grain roughness by means of the size of the sediment. The form roughness is predicted by

Remaining useful life prediction based on variation coefficient consistency test of a Wiener process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan LI

2018-01-01

Full Text Available High-cost equipment is often reused after maintenance, and whether the information before the maintenance can be used for the Remaining Useful Life (RUL prediction after the maintenance is directly determined by the consistency of the degradation pattern before and after the maintenance. Aiming at this problem, an RUL prediction method based on the consistency test of a Wiener process is proposed. Firstly, the parameters of the Wiener process estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE are proved to be biased, and a modified unbiased estimation method is proposed and verified by derivation and simulations. Then, the h statistic is constructed according to the reciprocal of the variation coefficient of the Wiener process, and the sampling distribution is derived. Meanwhile, a universal method for the consistency test is proposed based on the sampling distribution theorem, which is verified by simulation data and classical crack degradation data. Finally, based on the consistency test of the degradation model, a weighted fusion RUL prediction method is presented for the fuel pump of an airplane, and the validity of the presented method is verified by accurate computation results of real data, which provides a theoretical and practical guidance for engineers to predict the RUL of equipment after maintenance.

Variation and Grey GM(1, 1) Prediction of Melting Peak Temperature of Polypropylene During Ultraviolet Radiation Aging

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, K.; Y Zhang, T.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, Z. R.

2017-12-01

Grey system theory regards uncertain system in which information is known partly and unknown partly as research object, extracts useful information from part known, and thereby revealing the potential variation rule of the system. In order to research the applicability of data-driven modelling method in melting peak temperature (T m) fitting and prediction of polypropylene (PP) during ultraviolet radiation aging, the T m of homo-polypropylene after different ultraviolet radiation exposure time investigated by differential scanning calorimeter was fitted and predicted by grey GM(1, 1) model based on grey system theory. The results show that the T m of PP declines with the prolong of aging time, and fitting and prediction equation obtained by grey GM(1, 1) model is T m = 166.567472exp(-0.00012t). Fitting effect of the above equation is excellent and the maximum relative error between prediction value and actual value of T m is 0.32%. Grey system theory needs less original data, has high prediction accuracy, and can be used to predict aging behaviour of PP.

The effect of gender on eye colour variation in European populations and an evaluation of the IrisPlex prediction model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pietroni, Carlotta; Andersen, Jeppe D.; Johansen, Peter

2014-01-01

In two recent studies of Spanish individuals [1,2], gender was suggested as a factor that contributes to human eye colour variation. However, gender did not improve the predictive accuracy on blue, intermediate and brown eye colours when gender was included in the IrisPlex model [3]. In this stud...... and their corresponding predictive values using the IrisPlex prediction model [4]. The results suggested that maximum three (rs12913832, rs1800407, rs16891982) of the six IrisPlex SNPs are useful in practical forensic genetic casework.......In two recent studies of Spanish individuals [1,2], gender was suggested as a factor that contributes to human eye colour variation. However, gender did not improve the predictive accuracy on blue, intermediate and brown eye colours when gender was included in the IrisPlex model [3]. In this study......12203592). A quantitative eye colour score (Pixel Index of the Eye: PIE-score) was calculated based on digital eye images using the custom made DIAT software. The results were compared with those of Danish and Swedish population samples. As expected, we found HERC2 rs12913832 as the main predictor of human...

Factors promoting or potentially impeding school success: disparities and state variations for children with special health care needs.

Science.gov (United States)

Bethell, Christina; Forrest, Christopher B; Stumbo, Scott; Gombojav, Narangerel; Carle, Adam; Irwin, Charles E

2012-04-01

School success predicts many pathways for health and well-being across the life span. Factors promoting or potentially impeding school success are critical to understand for all children and for children with special health care needs (CSHCN), whose life course trajectories are already impacted by their chronic health problems. The 2007 National Survey of Children's Health was used (1) to estimate national and state prevalence and within and across states disparities in factors promoting school success (engagement, participation, safety) or potentially impeding success (missing school, grade repetition, school identified problems) for all children and CSHCN and (2) to evaluate associations with CSHCN service need complexity and presence of emotional, behavioral or developmental problems (EBD) as well as with school case management policies in states. Among school age children, 60 % experienced all three factors promoting school success (49.3-73.8 % across states), dropping to 51.3 % for CSHCN (39.4-64.7 % across states) and to 36.2 % for the 40 % of all CSHCN who have both more complex service needs and EBD. CSHCN were more likely to experience factors potentially impeding school success. After accounting for child factors, CSHCN living in states requiring case management in schools for children with disabilities were less likely to experience grade repetition (OR 0.65). Within-state disparities between non-CSHCN and CSHCN varied across states. Threats to school success for US children are pervasive and are especially pronounced for CSHCN with more complex needs and EBD. Findings support broad, non-condition specific efforts to promote school success for CSHCN and consideration of state school policies, such as case management.

Application of Method of Variation to Analyze and Predict Human Induced Modifications of Water Resource Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Dessu, S. B.; Melesse, A. M.; Mahadev, B.; McClain, M.

2010-12-01

Water resource systems have often used gravitational surface and subsurface flows because of their practicality in hydrological modeling and prediction. Activities such as inter/intra-basin water transfer, the use of small pumps and the construction of micro-ponds challenge the tradition of natural rivers as water resource management unit. On the contrary, precipitation is barely affected by topography and plot harvesting in wet regions can be more manageable than diverting from rivers. Therefore, it is indicative to attend to systems where precipitation drives the dynamics while the internal mechanics constitutes spectrum of human activity and decision in a network of plots. The trade-in volume and path of harvested precipitation depends on water balance, energy balance and the kinematics of supply and demand. Method of variation can be used to understand and predict the implication of local excess precipitation harvest and exchange on the natural water system. A system model was developed using the variational form of Euler-Bernoulli’s equation for the Kenyan Mara River basin. Satellite derived digital elevation models, precipitation estimates, and surface properties such as fractional impervious surface area, are used to estimate the available water resource. Four management conditions are imposed in the model: gravitational flow, open water extraction and high water use investment at upstream and downstream respectively. According to the model, the first management maintains the basin status quo while the open source management could induce externality. The high water market at the upstream in the third management offers more than 50% of the basin-wide total revenue to the upper third section of the basin thus may promote more harvesting. The open source and upstream exploitation suggest potential drop of water availability to downstream. The model exposed the latent potential of economic gradient to reconfigure the flow network along the direction where the

Deterministic and probabilistic interval prediction for short-term wind power generation based on variational mode decomposition and machine learning methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Yachao; Liu, Kaipei; Qin, Liang; An, Xueli

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Variational mode decomposition is adopted to process original wind power series. • A novel combined model based on machine learning methods is established. • An improved differential evolution algorithm is proposed for weight adjustment. • Probabilistic interval prediction is performed by quantile regression averaging. - Abstract: Due to the increasingly significant energy crisis nowadays, the exploitation and utilization of new clean energy gains more and more attention. As an important category of renewable energy, wind power generation has become the most rapidly growing renewable energy in China. However, the intermittency and volatility of wind power has restricted the large-scale integration of wind turbines into power systems. High-precision wind power forecasting is an effective measure to alleviate the negative influence of wind power generation on the power systems. In this paper, a novel combined model is proposed to improve the prediction performance for the short-term wind power forecasting. Variational mode decomposition is firstly adopted to handle the instability of the raw wind power series, and the subseries can be reconstructed by measuring sample entropy of the decomposed modes. Then the base models can be established for each subseries respectively. On this basis, the combined model is developed based on the optimal virtual prediction scheme, the weight matrix of which is dynamically adjusted by a self-adaptive multi-strategy differential evolution algorithm. Besides, a probabilistic interval prediction model based on quantile regression averaging and variational mode decomposition-based hybrid models is presented to quantify the potential risks of the wind power series. The simulation results indicate that: (1) the normalized mean absolute errors of the proposed combined model from one-step to three-step forecasting are 4.34%, 6.49% and 7.76%, respectively, which are much lower than those of the base models and the hybrid

Predicting Success in Product Development: The Application of Principal Component Analysis to Categorical Data and Binomial Logistic Regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Glauco H.S. Mendes

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Critical success factors in new product development (NPD in the Brazilian small and medium enterprises (SMEs are identified and analyzed. Critical success factors are best practices that can be used to improve NPD management and performance in a company. However, the traditional method for identifying these factors is survey methods. Subsequently, the collected data are reduced through traditional multivariate analysis. The objective of this work is to develop a logistic regression model for predicting the success or failure of the new product development. This model allows for an evaluation and prioritization of resource commitments. The results will be helpful for guiding management actions, as one way to improve NPD performance in those industries.

Human Factors Predicting Failure and Success in Hospital Information System Implementations in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Verbeke, Frank; Karara, Gustave; Nyssen, Marc

2015-01-01

From 2007 through 2014, the authors participated in the implementation of open source hospital information systems (HIS) in 19 hospitals in Rwanda, Burundi, DR Congo, Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon, and Mali. Most of these implementations were successful, but some failed. At the end of a seven-year implementation effort, a number of risk factors, facilitators, and pragmatic approaches related to the deployment of HIS in Sub-Saharan health facilities have been identified. Many of the problems encountered during the HIS implementation process were not related to technical issues but human, cultural, and environmental factors. This study retrospectively evaluates the predictive value of 14 project failure factors and 15 success factors in HIS implementation in the Sub-Saharan region. Nine of the failure factors were strongly correlated with project failure, three were moderately correlated, and one weakly correlated. Regression analysis also confirms that eight factors were strongly correlated with project success, four moderately correlated, and two weakly correlated. The study results may help estimate the expedience of future HIS projects.

Predicting the academic success of architecture students by pre-enrolment requirement: using machine-learning techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ralph Olusola Aluko

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of applicants seeking admission into architecture programmes. As expected, prior academic performance (also referred to as pre-enrolment requirement is a major factor considered during the process of selecting applicants. In the present study, machine learning models were used to predict academic success of architecture students based on information provided in prior academic performance. Two modeling techniques, namely K-nearest neighbour (k-NN and linear discriminant analysis were applied in the study. It was found that K-nearest neighbour (k-NN outperforms the linear discriminant analysis model in terms of accuracy. In addition, grades obtained in mathematics (at ordinary level examinations had a significant impact on the academic success of undergraduate architecture students. This paper makes a modest contribution to the ongoing discussion on the relationship between prior academic performance and academic success of undergraduate students by evaluating this proposition. One of the issues that emerges from these findings is that prior academic performance can be used as a predictor of academic success in undergraduate architecture programmes. Overall, the developed k-NN model can serve as a valuable tool during the process of selecting new intakes into undergraduate architecture programmes in Nigeria.

Know Your Enemy: Successful Bioinformatic Approaches to Predict Functional RNA Structures in Viral RNAs

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Chun Shen; Brown, Chris M.

2018-01-01

Structured RNA elements may control virus replication, transcription and translation, and their distinct features are being exploited by novel antiviral strategies. Viral RNA elements continue to be discovered using combinations of experimental and computational analyses. However, the wealth of sequence data, notably from deep viral RNA sequencing, viromes, and metagenomes, necessitates computational approaches being used as an essential discovery tool. In this review, we describe practical approaches being used to discover functional RNA elements in viral genomes. In addition to success stories in new and emerging viruses, these approaches have revealed some surprising new features of well-studied viruses e.g., human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus, influenza, and dengue viruses. Some notable discoveries were facilitated by new comparative analyses of diverse viral genome alignments. Importantly, comparative approaches for finding RNA elements embedded in coding and non-coding regions differ. With the exponential growth of computer power we have progressed from stem-loop prediction on single sequences to cutting edge 3D prediction, and from command line to user friendly web interfaces. Despite these advances, many powerful, user friendly prediction tools and resources are underutilized by the virology community. PMID:29354101

Prediction of autosomal STR typing success in ancient and Second World War bone samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Zupanič Pajnič, Irena; Zupanc, Tomaž; Balažic, Jože; Geršak, Živa Miriam; Stojković, Oliver; Skadrić, Ivan; Črešnar, Matija

2017-03-01

Human-specific quantitative PCR (qPCR) has been developed for forensic use in the last 10 years and is the preferred DNA quantification technique since it is very accurate, sensitive, objective, time-effective and automatable. The amount of information that can be gleaned from a single quantification reaction using commercially available quantification kits has increased from the quantity of nuclear DNA to the amount of male DNA, presence of inhibitors and, most recently, to the degree of DNA degradation. In skeletal remains samples from disaster victims, missing persons and war conflict victims, the DNA is usually degraded. Therefore the new commercial qPCR kits able to assess the degree of degradation are potentially able to predict the success of downstream short tandem repeat (STR) typing. The goal of this study was to verify the quantification step using the PowerQuant kit with regard to its suitability as a screening method for autosomal STR typing success on ancient and Second World War (WWII) skeletal remains. We analysed 60 skeletons excavated from five archaeological sites and four WWII mass graves from Slovenia. The bones were cleaned, surface contamination was removed and the bones ground to a powder. Genomic DNA was obtained from 0.5g of bone powder after total demineralization. The DNA was purified using a Biorobot EZ1 device. Following PowerQuant quantification, DNA samples were subjected to autosomal STR amplification using the NGM kit. Up to 2.51ng DNA/g of powder were extracted. No inhibition was detected in any of bones analysed. 82% of the WWII bones gave full profiles while 73% of the ancient bones gave profiles not suitable for interpretation. Four bone extracts yielded no detectable amplification or zero quantification results and no profiles were obtained from any of them. Full or useful partial profiles were produced only from bone extracts where short autosomal (Auto) and long degradation (Deg) PowerQuant targets were detected. It is

A problem with problem solving: motivational traits, but not cognition, predict success on novel operant foraging tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

van Horik, Jayden O; Madden, Joah R

2016-04-01

Rates of innovative foraging behaviours and success on problem-solving tasks are often used to assay differences in cognition, both within and across species. Yet the cognitive features of some problem-solving tasks can be unclear. As such, explanations that attribute cognitive mechanisms to individual variation in problem-solving performance have revealed conflicting results. We investigated individual consistency in problem-solving performances in captive-reared pheasant chicks, Phasianus colchicus , and addressed whether success depends on cognitive processes, such as trial-and-error associative learning, or whether performances may be driven solely via noncognitive motivational mechanisms, revealed through subjects' willingness to approach, engage with and persist in their interactions with an apparatus, or via physiological traits such as body condition. While subjects' participation and success were consistent within the same problems and across similar tasks, their performances were inconsistent across different types of task. Moreover, subjects' latencies to approach each test apparatus and their attempts to access the reward were not repeatable across trials. Successful individuals did not improve their performances with experience, nor were they consistent in their techniques in repeated presentations of a task. However, individuals that were highly motivated to enter the experimental chamber were more likely to participate. Successful individuals were also faster to approach each test apparatus and more persistent in their attempts to solve the tasks than unsuccessful individuals. Our findings therefore suggest that individual differences in problem-solving success can arise from inherent motivational differences alone and hence be achieved without inferring more complex cognitive processes.

Prediction of temperature variation in a rotating spacecraft in space environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gadalla, Mohamed A.

2005-01-01

This paper presents a closed-form prediction model for the temperature distribution of a thick-walled cylindrical space vehicle subjected to solar heating in deep space. The model is based on the coupling between dynamics and solar radiation. Since solar radiation is, in general, incident from a fixed direction, one side of the space vehicle will be shone bright, and the other side dark. Thus the space astronauts, instruments, and cryogenic-fuel tanks are gaining heat on the bright side and losing heat from the dark side. This radiative heat gain and loss become equally significant as the conductive heat transfer through the interior of the space vehicle. Thermal analysis is carried out to predict the effect of the spinning speed and angular position on the temperature variation and gradients attained by speed vehicles outside the Earth's atmosphere. This analysis is based on the non-linearity of the radiative heat dissipation, the significant conductive heat transfer role, and combined boundary conditions that involve the temperature and angular position of the vehicle. An exact analytical solution is obtained inspite of the non-linearity and non-homogeneity in the boundary conditions. The results indicate that the temperature distribution on the outer surface of the space vehicle is nearly independent of the angular position; at sub-cylindrical surface, this independence is achieved at low angular velocity

Low Motivational Incongruence Predicts Successful EEG Resting-state Neurofeedback Performance in Healthy Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Diaz Hernandez, Laura; Rieger, Kathryn; Koenig, Thomas

2018-05-15

Neurofeedback is becoming increasingly sophisticated and widespread, although predictors of successful performance still remain scarce. Here, we explored the possible predictive value of psychological factors and report the results obtained from a neurofeedback training study designed to enhance the self-regulation of spontaneous EEG microstates of a particular type (microstate class D). Specifically, we were interested in life satisfaction (including motivational incongruence), body awareness, personality and trait anxiety. These variables were quantified with questionnaires before neurofeedback. Individual neurofeedback success was established by means of linear mixed models that accounted for the amount of observed target state (microstate class D contribution) as a function of time and training condition: baseline, training and transfer (results shown in Diaz Hernandez et al.). We found a series of significant negative correlations between motivational incongruence and mean percentage increase of microstate D during the condition transfer, across-sessions (36% of common variance) and mean percentage increase of microstate D during the condition training, within-session (42% of common variance). There were no significant correlations related to other questionnaires, besides a trend in a sub-scale of the Life Satisfaction questionnaire. We conclude that motivational incongruence may be a potential predictor for neurofeedback success, at least in the current protocol. The finding may be explained by the interfering effect on neurofeedback performance produced by incompatible simultaneously active psychological processes, which are indirectly measured by the Motivational Incongruence questionnaire. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Analysis of syntax and word use to predict successful participation in guided self-help for anxiety and depression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zinken, Jörg; Zinken, Katarzyna; Wilson, J. Clare

2010-01-01

This study investigated whether an analysis of narrative style (word use and cross-clausal syntax) of patients with symptoms of generalised anxiety and depression disorders can help predict the likelihood of successful participation in guided self-help. Texts by 97 people who had made contact...... with a primary care mental health service were analysed. Outcome measures were completion of the guided self-help programme, and change in symptoms assessed by a standardised scale (CORE-OM). Regression analyses indicated that some aspects of participants' syntax helped to predict completion of the programme...

Melanopsin gene variations interact with season to predict sleep onset and chronotype.

Science.gov (United States)

Roecklein, Kathryn A; Wong, Patricia M; Franzen, Peter L; Hasler, Brant P; Wood-Vasey, W Michael; Nimgaonkar, Vishwajit L; Miller, Megan A; Kepreos, Kyle M; Ferrell, Robert E; Manuck, Stephen B

2012-10-01

The human melanopsin gene has been reported to mediate risk for seasonal affective disorder (SAD), which is hypothesized to be caused by decreased photic input during winter when light levels fall below threshold, resulting in differences in circadian phase and/or sleep. However, it is unclear if melanopsin increases risk of SAD by causing differences in sleep or circadian phase, or if those differences are symptoms of the mood disorder. To determine if melanopsin sequence variations are associated with differences in sleep-wake behavior among those not suffering from a mood disorder, the authors tested associations between melanopsin gene polymorphisms and self-reported sleep timing (sleep onset and wake time) in a community sample (N = 234) of non-Hispanic Caucasian participants (age 30-54 yrs) with no history of psychological, neurological, or sleep disorders. The authors also tested the effect of melanopsin variations on differences in preferred sleep and activity timing (i.e., chronotype), which may reflect differences in circadian phase, sleep homeostasis, or both. Daylength on the day of assessment was measured and included in analyses. DNA samples were genotyped for melanopsin gene polymorphisms using fluorescence polarization. P10L genotype interacted with daylength to predict self-reported sleep onset (interaction p sleep onset among those with the TT genotype was later in the day when individuals were assessed on longer days and earlier in the day on shorter days, whereas individuals in the other genotype groups (i.e., CC and CT) did not show this interaction effect. P10L genotype also interacted in an analogous way with daylength to predict self-reported morningness (interaction p sleep onset and chronotype as a function of daylength, whereas other genotypes at P10L do not seem to have effects that vary by daylength. A better understanding of how melanopsin confers heightened responsivity to daylength may improve our understanding of a broad range of

Prediction of ppm level electrical failure by using physical variation analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Hsin-Ming; Kung, Ji-Fu; Hsu, Y.-B.; Yamazaki, Y.; Maruyama, Kotaro; Toyoshima, Yuya; Chen, Chu-en

2016-03-01

their spatial correlation distance. For local variations (LV) there is no correlation, whereas for global variations (GV) the correlation distance is very large [7]-[9]. This is the first time to certificate the validation of spatial distribution from the affordable bias contour big data fundamental infrastructures. And then apply statistical techniques to dig out the variation sources. The GV come from systematic issue, which could be compensated by adaptive LT condition or OPC correction. But LV comes from random issue, which being considered as intrinsic problem such as structure, material, tool capability… etc. In this paper studying, we can find out the advanced technology node SRAM contact CD local variation (LV) dominates in total variation, about 70%. It often plays significant in-line real time catching WP-DPMO role of the product yield loss, especially for wafer edge is the worst loss within wafer distribution and causes serious reliability concern. The major root cause of variations comes from the PR material induced burr defect (LV), the second one comes from GV enhanced wafer edge short opportunity, which being attributed to three factors, first one factor is wafer edge CD deliberated enlargement for yield improvement as shown in Fig. 10. Second factor is overlaps/AA shifts due to tool capability dealing with incoming wafer's war page issue and optical periphery layout dependent working pitch issue as shown in Fig. 9 (1)., the last factor comes from wafer edge burr enhanced by wafer edge larger Photo Resistance (PR) spin centrifugal force. After implementing KPIs such as GV related AA/CD indexes as shown in Fig. 9 (1) and 10, respectively, and LV related burr index as shown in Fig. 11., we can construct the parts per million (PPM) level short probability model via multi-variables regression, canonical correlation analysis and logistic transformation. The model provides prediction of PPM level electrical failure by using in-line real time physical

Predicting the establishment success of introduced target species in grassland restoration by functional traits.

Science.gov (United States)

Engst, Karina; Baasch, Annett; Bruelheide, Helge

2017-09-01

potential of functional trait analysis to predict success in restoration projects.

The success of cardiotocography in predicting perinatal outcome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alpaslan Kaban

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Objectives: The determination of the fetal condition duringlabor is important to minimize fetal death due to asphyxiaand the neurological sequelae of fetal hypoxia.This study evaluated the success of fetal cardiotocographyin predicting perinatal consequences.Materials and methods: This study enrolled 101 full-termpregnant women admitted for delivery to Vakif GurebaTraining and Research Hospital between October 2009and February 2010. Women were included if they wereaged 18-45 years and within 36-41 weeks of gestation.During a 20-min period of fetal monitoring, a change inFHR (fetal heart rate lasting for 15 s or two elevated runsof 15 beats was evaluated as a reactive NST (non-stresstest. The umbilical artery pH was used as the “gold standard”for assessing fetal asphyxia.Results: The mean age of the women included in thestudy was 27.82 ± 5.29 years, the average parity was1.09± 0.96. The pH was normal in 85 neonates, while 13 hadfetal asphyxia. No significant difference in umbilical cordblood pH, pO2, or pCO2 was observed between these twogroups (p = 0.497, p = 0.722, and p = 0.053, respectively.No significant difference in maternal age, parity, or birthweight was found between the group with fetal distressbased on CTG (cardiotocography and the normal group.Conclusion: Cardiotocography is an important test duringlabor for labor management, it is insufficient for predictingthe perinatal outcome. Therefore, labor should beevaluated on an individualized basis. J Clin Exp Invest2012; 3(2: 168-171

The prediction of success in kickboxing based on the analysis of morphofunctional, physiological, biomechanical and psychophysiological indicators

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L.V. Podrigalo

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose: To substantiate and develop a methodology for predicting success in kickboxing on the basis of analysis of morphofunctional, physiological, biomechanical and psychophysiological indicators. Material: it was examined athletes of kickboxing (n=185, age 18.58 +- 0.46 years. It was studied the features of physical development (n = 18. The main biomechanical parameters (n=45 were determined. Goniometric indices of limb joints (n=29 were studied. It was studied the features of psychophysiological reactions (n =76. The adaptive capabilities of the cardiovascular system were studied (n=17. The prognostication is carried out by means of a sequential Wald procedure. Prognostic coefficients and their informativity were calculated. Results: a prognostic table was developed containing the indicators of the functional state of kickboxing athletes. The table includes 31 criteria, the informativeness of which varied within 115,45 - 2,23. The content of the forecast consists in: an evaluation of the results; determination of the corresponding prognostic coefficient; summation of coefficients. The threshold was set at the level +- 13, which corresponds to a probability of 95% (p<0,05. Exceeding the positive threshold means a high level of success for the athlete. When the negative threshold is reached, the probability of success is low. Conclusions: The proposed methodology is based on a sequential analysis of Wald. The technique is a simple, informative and objective tool for monitoring and predicting the status of athletes.

Multi-Scale Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System for Coastal Ocean Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhijin; Chao, Yi; Li, P. Peggy

2012-01-01

A multi-scale three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (MS-3DVAR) has been formulated and the associated software system has been developed for improving high-resolution coastal ocean prediction. This system helps improve coastal ocean prediction skill, and has been used in support of operational coastal ocean forecasting systems and field experiments. The system has been developed to improve the capability of data assimilation for assimilating, simultaneously and effectively, sparse vertical profiles and high-resolution remote sensing surface measurements into coastal ocean models, as well as constraining model biases. In this system, the cost function is decomposed into two separate units for the large- and small-scale components, respectively. As such, data assimilation is implemented sequentially from large to small scales, the background error covariance is constructed to be scale-dependent, and a scale-dependent dynamic balance is incorporated. This scheme then allows effective constraining large scales and model bias through assimilating sparse vertical profiles, and small scales through assimilating high-resolution surface measurements. This MS-3DVAR enhances the capability of the traditional 3DVAR for assimilating highly heterogeneously distributed observations, such as along-track satellite altimetry data, and particularly maximizing the extraction of information from limited numbers of vertical profile observations.

Using Neural Network and Logistic Regression Analysis to Predict Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Academic Success upon Entering Graduate Education

Science.gov (United States)

Bahadir, Elif

2016-01-01

The ability to predict the success of students when they enter a graduate program is critical for educational institutions because it allows them to develop strategic programs that will help improve students' performances during their stay at an institution. In this study, we present the results of an experimental comparison study of Logistic…

Conspecific reproductive success and breeding habitat selection: Implications for the study of coloniality

Science.gov (United States)

Danchin, E.; Boulinier, T.; Massot, M.

1998-01-01

Habitat selection is a crucial process in the life cycle of animals because it can affect most components of fitness. It has been proposed that some animals cue on the reproductive success of conspecifics to select breeding habitats. We tested this hypothesis with demographic and behavioral data from a 17-yr study of the Black-legged Kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), a cliff-nesting seabird. As the hypothesis assumes, the Black-legged Kittiwake nesting environment was patchy, and the relative quality of the different patches (i.e., breeding cliffs) varied in time. The average reproductive success of the breeders of a given cliff was predictable from one year to the next, but this predictability faded after several years. The dynamic nature of cliff quality in the long term is partly explained by the autocorrelation of the prevalence of an ectoparasite that influences reproductive success. As predicted by the performance-based conspecific attraction hypothesis, the reproductive success of current breeders on a given cliff was predictive of the reproductive success of new recruits on the cliff in the following year. Breeders tended to recruit to the previous year's most productive cliffs and to emigrate from the least productive ones. Consequently, the dynamics of breeder numbers on the cliffs were explained by local reproductive success on a year-to-year basis. Because, on average, young Black-legged Kittiwakes first breed when 4 yr old, such a relationship probably results from individual choices based on the assessment of previous-year local quality. When breeders changed breeding cliffs between years, they selected cliffs of per capita higher reproductive success. Furthermore, after accounting for the potential effects of age and sex as well as between-year variations, the effect of individual breeding performance on breeding dispersal was strongly influenced by the average reproductive success of other breeders on the same cliff. Individual breeding performance did

The Infant with Aortic Arch Hypoplasia and Small Left Heart Structures: Echocardiographic Indices of Mitral and Aortic Hypoplasia Predicting Successful Biventricular Repair.

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Plymale, Jennifer M; Frommelt, Peter C; Nugent, Melodee; Simpson, Pippa; Tweddell, James S; Shillingford, Amanda J

2017-08-01

In infants with aortic arch hypoplasia and small left-sided cardiac structures, successful biventricular repair is dependent on the adequacy of the left-sided structures. Defining accurate thresholds of echocardiographic indices predictive of successful biventricular repair is paramount to achieving optimal outcomes. We sought to identify pre-operative echocardiographic indices of left heart size that predict intervention-free survival in infants with small left heart structures undergoing primary aortic arch repair to establish biventricular circulation (BVC). Infants ≤2 months undergoing aortic arch repair from 1999 to 2010 with aortic and/or mitral valve hypoplasia, (Z-score ≤-2) were included. Pre-operative and follow-up echocardiograms were reviewed. Primary outcome was successful biventricular circulation (BVC), defined as freedom from death, transplant, or single ventricular conversion at 1 year. Need for catheter based or surgical re-intervention (RI), valve annular growth, and significant late aortic or mitral valve obstruction were additional outcomes. Fifty one of 73 subjects (79%) had successful BVC and were free of RI at 1 year. Seven subjects failed BVC; four of those died. The overall 1 year survival for the cohort was 95%. Fifteen subjects underwent a RI but maintained BVC. In univariate analysis, larger transverse aorta (p = 0.006) and aortic valve (p = 0.02) predicted successful BVC without RI. In CART analysis, the combination of mitral valve (MV) to tricuspid valve (TV) ratio ≤0.66 with an aortic valve (AV) annulus Z-score ≤-3 had the greatest power to predict BVC failure (sensitivity 71%, specificity 94%). In those with successful BVC, the combination of both AV and MV Z-score ≤-2.5 increased the odds of RI (OR 3.8; CI 1.3-11.4). Follow-up of non-RI subjects revealed improvement in AV and MV Z-score (median AV annulus changed over time from -2.34 to 0.04 (p indices. In this complex population, 1 year survival is high, but

Metabolic Model-Based Integration of Microbiome Taxonomic and Metabolomic Profiles Elucidates Mechanistic Links between Ecological and Metabolic Variation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Noecker, Cecilia; Eng, Alexander; Srinivasan, Sujatha; Theriot, Casey M.; Young, Vincent B.; Jansson, Janet K.; Fredricks, David N.; Borenstein, Elhanan; Sanchez, Laura M.

2015-12-22

Multiple molecular assays now enable high-throughput profiling of the ecology, metabolic capacity, and activity of the human microbiome. However, to date, analyses of such multi-omic data typically focus on statistical associations, often ignoring extensive prior knowledge of the mechanisms linking these various facets of the microbiome. Here, we introduce a comprehensive framework to systematically link variation in metabolomic data with community composition by utilizing taxonomic, genomic, and metabolic information. Specifically, we integrate available and inferred genomic data, metabolic network modeling, and a method for predicting community-wide metabolite turnover to estimate the biosynthetic and degradation potential of a given community. Our framework then compares variation in predicted metabolic potential with variation in measured metabolites’ abundances to evaluate whether community composition can explain observed shifts in the community metabolome, and to identify key taxa and genes contributing to the shifts. Focusing on two independent vaginal microbiome data sets, each pairing 16S community profiling with large-scale metabolomics, we demonstrate that our framework successfully recapitulates observed variation in 37% of metabolites. Well-predicted metabolite variation tends to result from disease-associated metabolism. We further identify several disease-enriched species that contribute significantly to these predictions. Interestingly, our analysis also detects metabolites for which the predicted variation negatively correlates with the measured variation, suggesting environmental control points of community metabolism. Applying this framework to gut microbiome data sets reveals similar trends, including prediction of bile acid metabolite shifts. This framework is an important first step toward a system-level multi-omic integration and an improved mechanistic understanding of the microbiome activity and dynamics in

Prolactin is related to individual differences in parental behavior and reproductive success in a biparental passerine, the zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata).

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Smiley, Kristina O; Adkins-Regan, Elizabeth

2016-08-01

Variation in parental care can lead to important fitness consequences. The endocrine system is known to regulate physiological and behavioral reproductive traits that are important contributors to lifetime reproductive success. However, the hormonal basis of variation in avian parental care is still not well understood. Plasma prolactin (PRL) concentrations are generally high during post-hatch parental care in birds, and may be a candidate mechanism that regulates variation in parental care and other reproductive success outcomes. Here we analyze the relationship between PRL, parental behavior (chick brooding and feeding) and reproductive success outcomes (clutch size, number of chicks hatched, and chick survival) for the first time in the zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata). Birds were given cabergoline, a dopamine agonist traditionally used to lower prolactin in mammals, or vehicle in their food. Cabergoline had no effect on prolactin concentrations, but across both groups we found that PRL is positively correlated with parental behavior, number of chicks hatched, and chick survival, but not clutch size. Results from this study will inform hypotheses and predictions for future manipulation studies which test for a causal role for PRL in parental traits. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics along a primary succession gradient: do alpine species fit into demographic succession theory?

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Marcante, Silvia; Winkler, Eckart; Erschbamer, Brigitta

2009-05-01

Understanding processes and mechanisms governing changes in plant species along primary successions has been of major importance in ecology. However, to date hardly any studies have focused on the complete life cycle of species along a successional gradient, comparing pioneer, early and late-successional species. In this study it is hypothesized that pioneer species should initially have a population growth rate, lambda, greater than one with high fecundity rates, and declining growth rates when they are replaced by late-successional species. Populations of late-successional species should also start, at the mid-successional stage (when pioneer species are declining), with growth rates greater than one and arrive at rates equal to one at the late successional stage, mainly due to higher survival rates that allow these species to persist for a long time. The demography of pioneer- (Saxifraga aizoides), early (Artemisia genipi) and late-successional species (Anthyllis vulneraria ssp. alpicola) was investigated together with that of a ubiquitous species (Poa alpina) along the Rotmoos glacier foreland (2300-2400 m a.s.l., Central Alps, Austria) over 3 years. A matrix modelling approach was used to compare the main demographic parameters. Elasticity values were plotted in a demographic triangle using fecundity, individual growth and survival as vital rates contributing to the population growth rates. The results largely confirmed the predictions for population growth rates during succession. However, high survival rates of larger adults characterized all species, regardless of where they were growing along the succession. At the pioneer site, high mortality rates of seedlings, plantlets and young individuals were recorded. Fecundity was found to be of minor relevance everywhere, but it was nevertheless sufficient to increase or maintain the population sizes. Demographically, all the species over all sites behaved like late-successional or climax species in secondary

Structural Variation within the Amygdala and Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex Predict Memory for Impressions in Older Adults

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Brittany Shane Cassidy

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Research has shown that lesions to regions involved in social and emotional cognition disrupt socioemotional processing and memory. We investigated how structural variation of regions involved in socioemotional memory (ventromedial prefrontal cortex [vmPFC], amygdala, as opposed to a region implicated in explicit memory (hippocampus, affected memory for impressions in young and older adults. Anatomical MRI scans for fifteen young and fifteen older adults were obtained and reconstructed to gather information about cortical thickness and subcortical volume. Young adults had greater amygdala and hippocampus volumes than old, and thicker left vmPFC than old, although right vmPFC thickness did not differ across the age groups. Participants formed behavior-based impressions and responded to interpersonally meaningful, social but interpersonally irrelevant, or non-social prompts, and completed a memory test. Results showed that greater left amygdala volume predicted enhanced overall memory for impressions in older but not younger adults. Increased right vmPFC thickness in older, but not younger, adults correlated with enhanced memory for impressions formed in the interpersonally meaningful context. Hippocampal volume was not predictive of social memory in young or older adults. These findings demonstrate the importance of structural variation in regions linked to socioemotional processing in the retention of impressions with age, and suggest that the amygdala and vmPFC play an integral role when encoding and retrieving social information.

Modeling student success in engineering education

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Qu

In order for the United States to maintain its global competitiveness, the long-term success of our engineering students in specific courses, programs, and colleges is now, more than ever, an extremely high priority. Numerous studies have focused on factors that impact student success, namely academic performance, retention, and/or graduation. However, there are only a limited number of works that have systematically developed models to investigate important factors and to predict student success in engineering. Therefore, this research presents three separate but highly connected investigations to address this gap. The first investigation involves explaining and predicting engineering students' success in Calculus I courses using statistical models. The participants were more than 4000 first-year engineering students (cohort years 2004 - 2008) who enrolled in Calculus I courses during the first semester in a large Midwestern university. Predictions from statistical models were proposed to be used to place engineering students into calculus courses. The success rates were improved by 12% in Calculus IA using predictions from models developed over traditional placement method. The results showed that these statistical models provided a more accurate calculus placement method than traditional placement methods and help improve success rates in those courses. In the second investigation, multi-outcome and single-outcome neural network models were designed to understand and to predict first-year retention and first-year GPA of engineering students. The participants were more than 3000 first year engineering students (cohort years 2004 - 2005) enrolled in a large Midwestern university. The independent variables include both high school academic performance factors and affective factors measured prior to entry. The prediction performances of the multi-outcome and single-outcome models were comparable. The ability to predict cumulative GPA at the end of an engineering

Prediction of interindividual variation in drug plasma levels in vivo from individual enzyme kinetic data and physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bogaards, J.J.P.; Hissink, E.M.; Briggs, M.; Weaver, R.; Jochemsen, R.; Jackson, P.; Bertrand, M.; Bladeren, P. van

2000-01-01

A strategy is presented to predict interindividual variation in drug plasma levels in vivo by the use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling and human in vitro metabolic parameters, obtained through the combined use of microsomes containing single cytochrome P450 enzymes and a human liver

Why Does Working Memory Capacity Predict Variation in Reading Comprehension? On the Influence of Mind Wandering and Executive Attention

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McVay, Jennifer C.; Kane, Michael J.

2012-01-01

Some people are better readers than others, and this variation in comprehension ability is predicted by measures of working memory capacity (WMC). The primary goal of this study was to investigate the mediating role of mind-wandering experiences in the association between WMC and normal individual differences in reading comprehension, as predicted…

Inhibition and Updating, but Not Switching, Predict Developmental Dyslexia and Individual Variation in Reading Ability

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Caoilainn Doyle

2018-05-01

Full Text Available To elucidate the core executive function profile (strengths and weaknesses in inhibition, updating, and switching associated with dyslexia, this study explored executive function in 27 children with dyslexia and 29 age matched controls using sensitive z-mean measures of each ability and controlled for individual differences in processing speed. This study found that developmental dyslexia is associated with inhibition and updating, but not switching impairments, at the error z-mean composite level, whilst controlling for processing speed. Inhibition and updating (but not switching error composites predicted both dyslexia likelihood and reading ability across the full range of variation from typical to atypical. The predictive relationships were such that those with poorer performance on inhibition and updating measures were significantly more likely to have a diagnosis of developmental dyslexia and also demonstrate poorer reading ability. These findings suggest that inhibition and updating abilities are associated with developmental dyslexia and predict reading ability. Future studies should explore executive function training as an intervention for children with dyslexia as core executive functions appear to be modifiable with training and may transfer to improved reading ability.

Prediction of strongly-heated internal gas flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McEligot, D.M.; Shehata, A.M.; Kunugi, Tomoaki

1997-01-01

The purposes of the present article are to remind practitioners why the usual textbook approaches may not be appropriate for treating gas flows heated from the surface with large heat fluxes and to review the successes of some recent applications of turbulence models to this case. Simulations from various turbulence models have been assessed by comparison to the measurements of internal mean velocity and temperature distributions by Shehata for turbulent, laminarizing and intermediate flows with significant gas property variation. Of about fifteen models considered, five were judged to provide adequate predictions

Predicting College Math Success: Do High School Performance and Gender Matter? Evidence from Sultan Qaboos University in Oman

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Islam, M. Mazharul; Al-Ghassani, Asma

2015-01-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of students of college of Science of Sultan Qaboos University (SQU) in Calculus I course, and examine the predictive validity of student's high school performance and gender for Calculus I success. The data for the study was extracted from students' database maintained by the Deanship of…

Prompt prediction of successful defibrillation from 1-s ventricular fibrillation waveform in patients with out-of-hospital sudden cardiac arrest.

Science.gov (United States)

Endoh, Hiroshi; Hida, Seiji; Oohashi, Satomi; Hayashi, Yusuke; Kinoshita, Hidenori; Honda, Tadayuki

2011-02-01

Ventricular fibrillation (VF) is a common cardiac arrest rhythm that can be terminated by electrical defibrillation. During cardiopulmonary resuscitation, there is a strong need for a prompt and reliable predictor of successful defibrillation because myocardial damage can result from repeated futile defibrillation attempts. Continuous wavelet transform (CWT) provides excellent time and frequency resolution of signals. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether features based on CWT could predict successful defibrillation. VF electrocardiogram (ECG) waveforms stored in ambulance-located defibrillators were collected. Predefibrillation waveforms were divided into 1.0- or 5.12-s VF waveforms. Indices in frequency domain or nonlinear analysis were calculated on the 5.12-s waveform. Simultaneously, CWT was performed on the 1.0-s waveform, and total low-band (1-3 Hz), mid-band (3-10 Hz), and high-band (10-32 Hz) energy were calculated. In 152 patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, a total of 233 ECG predefibrillation recordings, consisting of 164 unsuccessful and 69 successful episodes, were analyzed. Indices of frequency domain analysis (peak frequency, centroid frequency, and amplitude spectral area), nonlinear analysis (approximate entropy and Hurst exponent, detrended fluctuation analysis), and CWT analysis (mid-band and high-band energy) were significantly different between unsuccessful and successful episodes (P centroid frequency and total mid-band energy were effective predictors (P < 0.01 for both). Energy spectrum analysis based on CWT as short as a 1.0-s VF ECG waveform enables prompt and reliable prediction of successful defibrillation.

The circadian variation of premature atrial contractions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Bjørn Strøier; Kumarathurai, Preman; Nielsen, Olav W

2016-01-01

AIMS: The aim of the study was to assess a possible circadian variation of premature atrial contractions (PACs) in a community-based population and to determine if the daily variation could be used to assess a more vulnerable period of PACs in predicting later incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF...... variation in heart rate. After adjusting for relevant risk factors, the risk of AF was equal in all time intervals throughout the day. CONCLUSION: Premature atrial contractions showed a circadian variation in subjects with frequent PACs. No specific time interval of the day was more predictive of AF than...

Variation in Annual Volume at a University Hospital Does Not Predict Mortality for Pancreatic Resections

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Rita A. Mukhtar

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Annual volume of pancreatic resections has been shown to affect mortality rates, prompting recommendations to regionalize these procedures to high-volume hospitals. Implementation has been difficult, given the paucity of high-volume centers and the logistical hardships facing patients. Some studies have shown that low-volume hospitals achieve good outcomes as well, suggesting that other factors are involved. We sought to determine whether variations in annual volume affected patient outcomes in 511 patients who underwent pancreatic resections at the University of California, San Francisco between 1990 and 2005. We compared postoperative mortality and complication rates between low, medium, or high volume years, designated by the number of resections performed, adjusting for patient characteristics. Postoperative mortality rates did not differ between high volume years and medium/low volume years. As annual hospital volume of pancreatic resections may not predict outcome, identification of actual predictive factors may allow low-volume centers to achieve excellent outcomes.

Canonical variate regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Chongliang; Liu, Jin; Dey, Dipak K; Chen, Kun

2016-07-01

In many fields, multi-view datasets, measuring multiple distinct but interrelated sets of characteristics on the same set of subjects, together with data on certain outcomes or phenotypes, are routinely collected. The objective in such a problem is often two-fold: both to explore the association structures of multiple sets of measurements and to develop a parsimonious model for predicting the future outcomes. We study a unified canonical variate regression framework to tackle the two problems simultaneously. The proposed criterion integrates multiple canonical correlation analysis with predictive modeling, balancing between the association strength of the canonical variates and their joint predictive power on the outcomes. Moreover, the proposed criterion seeks multiple sets of canonical variates simultaneously to enable the examination of their joint effects on the outcomes, and is able to handle multivariate and non-Gaussian outcomes. An efficient algorithm based on variable splitting and Lagrangian multipliers is proposed. Simulation studies show the superior performance of the proposed approach. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in an [Formula: see text] intercross mice study and an alcohol dependence study. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Scanner-based macroscopic color variation estimation

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Kuo, Chunghui; Lai, Di; Zeise, Eric

2006-01-01

Flatbed scanners have been adopted successfully in the measurement of microscopic image artifacts, such as granularity and mottle, in print samples because of their capability of providing full color, high resolution images. Accurate macroscopic color measurement relies on the use of colorimeters or spectrophotometers to provide a surrogate for human vision. The very different color response characteristics of flatbed scanners from any standard colorimetric response limits the utility of a flatbed scanner as a macroscopic color measuring device. This metamerism constraint can be significantly relaxed if our objective is mainly to quantify the color variations within a printed page or between pages where a small bias in measured colors can be tolerated as long as the color distributions relative to the individual mean values is similar. Two scenarios when converting color from the device RGB color space to a standardized color space such as CIELab are studied in this paper, blind and semi-blind color transformation, depending on the availability of the black channel information. We will show that both approaches offer satisfactory results in quantifying macroscopic color variation across pages while the semi-blind color transformation further provides fairly accurate color prediction capability.

Endocrine phenotype, reproductive success and survival in the great tit, Parus major.

Science.gov (United States)

Ouyang, J Q; Sharp, P; Quetting, M; Hau, M

2013-09-01

A central goal in evolutionary ecology is to characterize and identify selection patterns on the optimal phenotype in different environments. Physiological traits, such as hormonal responses, provide important mechanisms by which individuals can adapt to fluctuating environmental conditions. It is therefore expected that selection shapes hormonal traits, but the strength and the direction of selection on plastic hormonal signals are still under investigation. Here, we determined whether, and in which way, selection is acting on the hormones corticosterone and prolactin by characterizing endocrine phenotypes and their relationship with fitness in free-living great tits, Parus major. We quantified variation in circulating concentrations of baseline and stress-induced corticosterone and in prolactin during the prebreeding (March) and the breeding season (May) for two consecutive years, and correlated these with reproductive success (yearly fledgling number) and overwinter survival in female and male individuals. In both years, individuals with high baseline corticosterone concentrations in March had the highest yearly fledgling numbers; while in May, individuals with low baseline corticosterone had the highest yearly reproductive success. Likewise, individuals that displayed strong seasonal plasticity in baseline corticosterone concentrations (high in March and low in May) had the highest reproductive success in each year. Prolactin concentrations were not related to reproductive success, but were positively correlated to the proximity to lay. Between-year plasticity in stress-induced corticosterone concentrations of males was related to yearly variation in food abundance, but not to overall reproductive success. These findings suggest that seasonally alternating directional selection is operating on baseline corticosterone concentrations in both sexes. The observed between-year consistency in selection patterns indicates that a one-time hormone sample in a given

A meta-analysis of the effects of common management actions on the nest success of North American birds.

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Hartway, Cynthia; Mills, L Scott

2012-08-01

Management strategies for the recovery of declining bird populations often must be made without sufficient data to predict the outcome of proposed actions or sufficient time and resources necessary to collect these data. We quantitatively reviewed studies of bird management in Canada and the United States to evaluate the relative efficacy of 4 common management interventions and to determine variables associated with their success. We compared how livestock exclusion, prescribed burning, removal of predators, and removal of cowbirds (Molothrus ater) affect bird nest success and used meta-regression to evaluate the influence of species and study-specific covariates on management outcomes. On average, all 4 management interventions increased nest success. When common species and threatened, endangered, or declining species (as defined by long-term trend data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey) were analyzed together, predator removal was the most effective management option. The difference in mean nest success between treatment and control plots in predator-removal experiments was more than twice that of either livestock exclusion or prescribed burning. However, when we considered management outcomes from only threatened, endangered, or declining species, livestock exclusions resulted in the greatest mean increase in nest success, more than twice that of the 3 other treatments. Our meta-regression results indicated that between-species variation accounted for approximately 86%, 40%, 35%, and 7% of the overall variation in the results of livestock-exclusion, prescribed-burn, predator-removal, and cowbird-removal studies, respectively. However, the covariates we tested explained significant variation only in outcomes among prescribed-burn studies. The difference in nest success between burned and unburned plots displayed a significant, positive trend in association with time since fire and was significantly larger in grasslands than in woodlands. Our results

Using the amplitude variation of a reverberation chamber channel to predict the synchronization of a wireless digital communication test system

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tanuhardja, Ray R.; Gonzalez, Luis A.; Wang, Chih-Ming; Young, William F.; Remley, Kate A.; Ladbury, John M.

2015-01-01

We discuss the use of a metric based on the amplitude variation of a channel in the signal bandwidth to predict whether or not a digital wireless communication test system receiver will be able to demodulate a test signal. This metric is compared to another method consisting of the correlation

Genetic variation in California oaks

Science.gov (United States)

Constance I. Millar; Diane L. Delany; Lawrence A. Riggs

1990-01-01

In forestry the importance of genetic variation for successful reproduction, survival and growth has been widely documented for commercial conifers; until recently, little genetic work has been done on the California oaks. Even before the nature of genetic variation was scientifically investigated, its importance was suspected in operational forestry. Many failures of...

Predictive value of early serum beta-human chorionic gonadotrophin for the successful outcome in women undergoing in vitro fertilization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neeta Singh

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Aims: Pregnancies achieved by in vitro fertilization (IVF are at increased risk of adverse outcome. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (β-HCG and age of the patient for the successful outcome in IVF. Materials and Methods: A retrospective study was done in 139 pregnancies after IVF at single IVF center from June 2007 to July 2012. The age of the patient and initial serum values of β-HCG on day 14 of embryo transfer were correlated with ongoing pregnancy (>12 weeks gestation. Results: The β-HCG level on day 14 of more than 347 mIU/ml has a sensitivity of 72.2% and specificity of 73.6% in prediction of pregnancy beyond 12 weeks period of gestation. Positive likelihood ratio (LR is 2.74 and negative LR is 0.37, (receiver operating characteristic area = 0.79. Discussion: In IVF cycles, there is a lot of stress on the couples while the cycle is going on. There was a positive correlation between the higher values of early serum β-HCG levels and ongoing pregnancy. Hence, it can be used as an independent predictor of a successful outcome of IVF cycle. Conclusion: We concluded from our study that early serum β-HCG can be used as a predictor of a successful outcome in IVF.

Predicting academic success among deaf college students.

Science.gov (United States)

Convertino, Carol M; Marschark, Marc; Sapere, Patricia; Sarchet, Thomastine; Zupan, Megan

2009-01-01

For both practical and theoretical reasons, educators and educational researchers seek to determine predictors of academic success for students at different levels and from different populations. Studies involving hearing students at the postsecondary level have documented significant predictors of success relating to various demographic factors, school experience, and prior academic attainment. Studies involving deaf and hard-of-hearing students have focused primarily on younger students and variables such as degree of hearing loss, use of cochlear implants, educational placement, and communication factors-although these typically are considered only one or two at a time. The present investigation utilizes data from 10 previous experiments, all using the same paradigm, in an attempt to discern significant predictors of readiness for college (utilizing college entrance examination scores) and classroom learning at the college level (utilizing scores from tests in simulated classrooms). Academic preparation was a clear and consistent predictor in both domains, but the audiological and communication variables examined were not. Communication variables that were significant reflected benefits of language flexibility over skills in either spoken language or American Sign Language.

Environmental Variation and Cohort Effects in an Antarctic Predator

Science.gov (United States)

Garrott, Robert A.; Rotella, Jay J.; Siniff, Donald B.; Parkinson, Claire L.; Stauffer, Glenn E.

2011-01-01

Understanding the potential influence of environmental variation experienced by animals during early stages of development on their subsequent demographic performance can contribute to our understanding of population processes and aid in predicting impacts of global climate change on ecosystem functioning. Using data from 4,178 tagged female Weddell seal pups born into 20 different cohorts, and 30 years of observations of the tagged seals, we evaluated the hypothesis that environmental conditions experienced by young seals, either indirectly through maternal effects and/or directly during the initial period of juvenile nutritional independence, have long-term effects on individual demographic performance. We documented an approximately 3-fold difference in the proportion of each cohort that returned to the pupping colonies and produced a pup within the first 10 years after birth. We found only weak evidence for a correlation between annual environmental conditions during the juvenile-independence period and cohort recruitment probability. Instead, the data strongly supported an association between cohort recruitment probability and the regional extent of sea ice experienced by the mother during the winter the pup was in utero. We suggest that inter-annual variation in winter sea-ice extent influences the foraging success of pregnant seals by moderating the regional abundance of competing predators that cannot occupy areas of consolidated sea ice, and by directly influencing the abundance of mid-trophic prey species that are sea-ice obligates. We hypothesize that this environmentally-induced variation in maternal nutrition dictates the extent of maternal energetic investment in offspring, resulting in cohort variation in mean size of pups at weaning which, in turn, contributes to an individual?s phenotype and its ultimate fitness. These linkages between sea ice and trophic dynamics, combined with demonstrated and predicted changes in the duration and extent of sea

Adaptive Granulation-Based Prediction for Energy System of Steel Industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tianyu; Han, Zhongyang; Zhao, Jun; Wang, Wei

2018-01-01

The flow variation tendency of byproduct gas plays a crucial role for energy scheduling in steel industry. An accurate prediction of its future trends will be significantly beneficial for the economic profits of steel enterprise. In this paper, a long-term prediction model for the energy system is proposed by providing an adaptive granulation-based method that considers the production semantics involved in the fluctuation tendency of the energy data, and partitions them into a series of information granules. To fully reflect the corresponding data characteristics of the formed unequal-length temporal granules, a 3-D feature space consisting of the timespan, the amplitude and the linetype is designed as linguistic descriptors. In particular, a collaborative-conditional fuzzy clustering method is proposed to granularize the tendency-based feature descriptors and specifically measure the amplitude variation of industrial data which plays a dominant role in the feature space. To quantify the performance of the proposed method, a series of real-world industrial data coming from the energy data center of a steel plant is employed to conduct the comparative experiments. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method successively satisfies the requirements of the practically viable prediction.

Individual variation in baseline and stress-induced corticosterone and prolactin levels predicts parental effort by nesting mourning doves

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, David A.; Vleck, Carol M.; Otis, David L.

2009-01-01

Endocrine systems have an important mechanistic role in structuring life-history trade-offs. During breeding, individual variation in prolactin (PRL) and corticosterone (CORT) levels affects behavioral and physiological processes that drive trade-offs between reproduction and self-maintenance. We examined patterns in baseline (BL) and stress induced (SI; level following a standard capture-restraint protocol) levels of PRL and CORT for breeding mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). We determined whether the relationship of adult condition and parental effort to hormone levels in wild birds was consistent with life-history predictions. Both BL PRL and BL CORT level in adults were positively related to nestling weight at early nestling ages, consistent with the prediction of a positive relationship of hormone levels to current parental effort of adults and associated increased energy demand. Results are consistent with the two hormones acting together at baseline levels to limit negative effects of CORT on reproduction while maintaining beneficial effects such as increased foraging for nestling feeding. Our data did not support predictions that SI responses would vary in response to nestling or adult condition. The magnitude of CORT response in the parents to our capture-restraint protocol was negatively correlated with subsequent parental effort. Average nestling weights for adults with the highest SI CORT response were on average 10–15% lighter than expected for their age in follow-up visits after the stress event. Our results demonstrated a relationship between individual hormone levels and within population variation in parental effort and suggested that hormonal control plays an important role in structuring reproductive decisions for mourning doves.

Predictive factor analysis for successful performance of iris recognition-assisted dynamic rotational eye tracking during laser in situ keratomileusis.

Science.gov (United States)

Prakash, Gaurav; Ashok Kumar, Dhivya; Agarwal, Amar; Jacob, Soosan; Sarvanan, Yoga; Agarwal, Athiya

2010-02-01

To analyze the predictive factors associated with success of iris recognition and dynamic rotational eye tracking on a laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) platform with active assessment and correction of intraoperative cyclotorsion. Interventional case series. Two hundred seventy-five eyes of 142 consecutive candidates underwent LASIK with attempted iris recognition and dynamic rotational tracking on the Technolas 217z100 platform (Techolas Perfect Vision, St Louis, Missouri, USA) at a tertiary care ophthalmic hospital. The main outcome measures were age, gender, flap creation method (femtosecond, microkeratome, epi-LASIK), success of static rotational tracking, ablation algorithm, pulses, and depth; preablation and intraablation rotational activity were analyzed and evaluated using regression models. Preablation static iris recognition was successful in 247 eyes, without difference in flap creation methods (P = .6). Age (partial correlation, -0.16; P = .014), amount of pulses (partial correlation, 0.39; P = 1.6 x 10(-8)), and gender (P = .02) were significant predictive factors for the amount of intraoperative cyclodeviation. Tracking difficulties leading to linking the ablation with a new intraoperatively acquired iris image were more with femtosecond-assisted flaps (P = 2.8 x 10(-7)) and the amount of intraoperative cyclotorsion (P = .02). However, the number of cases having nonresolvable failure of intraoperative rotational tracking was similar in the 3 flap creation methods (P = .22). Intraoperative cyclotorsional activity depends on the age, gender, and duration of ablation (pulses delivered). Femtosecond flaps do not seem to have a disadvantage over microkeratome flaps as far as iris recognition and success of intraoperative dynamic rotational tracking is concerned. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sr isotope variations in the Carnian-Norian succession at Pizzo Mondello, Sicani Mountains, Sicily

Science.gov (United States)

Onoue, T.; Yamashita, K.; Rigo, M.; Abate, B.

2017-12-01

The Norian stage in the Late Triassic is exceptionally long (23 Myr) and was subdivided into three substages: the Lacian, Alaunian, and Sevatian. In order to infer the Norian environmental changes in the western Tethys Ocean, the stratigraphic variations of 87Sr/86Sr in the Upper Triassic limestone succession in Sicily were examined. The Pizzo Mondello section studied here mainly consists of a pelagic carbonate sequence of the Scillato Formation, and ranges in age from Tuvalian (late Carnian) to Rhaetian. The Scillato Formation represents a deep-water pelagic facies deposited along the Sicanian Basin in the western Tethys Ocean. We selected fine-grained limestone samples from both the microfacies of lime-mudstone and wackestone to approximate the primary 87Sr/86Sr signature of the limestone beds. The 87Sr/86Sr values are relatively constant in the Tuvalian and Lacian (early Norian). However, the remarkable rise in 87Sr/86Sr occurred across the Lacian-Alaunian (early-middle Norian) transition. Variations in 87Sr/86Sr values show an increasing trend in 87Sr/86Sr from 0.7077 at the base of Lacian to 0.7080 in the Sevatian (late Norian). In the Sevatian, the 87Sr/86Sr ratios display a sudden negative excursion toward lower values and show a relatively quick recovery to pre-excursion 87Sr/86Sr ratios. Korte et al. (2003) suggested that the rise in the 87Sr/86Sr values from the middle Carnian to the late Norian coincide with the Cimmerian orogeny. Our new 87Sr/86Sr data from the Pizzo Mondello section reveal a comparable trend, with a sharp increase in 87Sr/86Sr within the Alaunian, suggesting the rapid uplift and erosion in the Cimmerian Mountains at this time. The cause of the 87Sr/86Sr excursion in the Sevatian remains uncertain. However, the biostratigraphic record of conodonts suggests that a morphological evolution towards platform-less elements occurred with the beginning of the Sr-isotope excursion.

Conditions during adulthood affect cohort-specific reproductive success in an Arctic-nesting goose population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mitch D. Weegman

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Variation in fitness between individuals in populations may be attributed to differing environmental conditions experienced among birth (or hatch years (i.e., between cohorts. In this study, we tested whether cohort fitness could also be explained by environmental conditions experienced in years post-hatch, using 736 lifelong resighting histories of Greenland white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris marked in their first winter. Specifically, we tested whether variation in age at first successful reproduction, the size of the first successful brood and the proportion of successful breeders by cohort was explained by environmental conditions experienced on breeding areas in west Greenland during hatch year, those in adulthood prior to successful reproduction and those in the year of successful reproduction, using North Atlantic Oscillation indices as proxies for environmental conditions during these periods. Fifty-nine (8% of all marked birds reproduced successfully (i.e., were observed on wintering areas with young only once in their lifetime and 15 (2% reproduced successfully twice or thrice. Variation in age at first successful reproduction was explained by the environmental conditions experienced during adulthood in the years prior to successful reproduction. Birds bred earliest (mean age 4 when environmental conditions were ‘good’ prior to the year of successful reproduction. Conversely, birds successfully reproduced at older ages (mean age 7 if they experienced adverse conditions prior to the year of successful reproduction. Hatch year conditions and an interaction between those experienced prior to and during the year of successful reproduction explained less (marginally significant variation in age at first successful reproduction. Environmental conditions did not explain variation in the size of the first successful brood or the proportion of successful breeders. These findings show that conditions during adulthood prior to

Smart moves: effects of relative brain size on establishment success of invasive amphibians and reptiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Amiel, Joshua J; Tingley, Reid; Shine, Richard

2011-04-06

Brain size relative to body size varies considerably among animals, but the ecological consequences of that variation remain poorly understood. Plausibly, larger brains confer increased behavioural flexibility, and an ability to respond to novel challenges. In keeping with that hypothesis, successful invasive species of birds and mammals that flourish after translocation to a new area tend to have larger brains than do unsuccessful invaders. We found the same pattern in ectothermic terrestrial vertebrates. Brain size relative to body size was larger in species of amphibians and reptiles reported to be successful invaders, compared to species that failed to thrive after translocation to new sites. This pattern was found in six of seven global biogeographic realms; the exception (where relatively larger brains did not facilitate invasion success) was Australasia. Establishment success was also higher in amphibian and reptile families with larger relative brain sizes. Future work could usefully explore whether invasion success is differentially associated with enlargement of specific parts of the brain (as predicted by the functional role of the forebrain in promoting behavioural flexibility), or with a general size increase (suggesting that invasion success is facilitated by enhanced perceptual and motor skills, as well as cognitive ability).

Can brain responses to movie trailers predict success?

OpenAIRE

Boksem, Maarten

2015-01-01

textabstractDecades of research have shown that much of our mental processing occurs at the subconscious level, including the decisions we make as consumers. These subconscious processes explain why we so often fail to accurately predict our own future choices. Often what we think we want has little or no bearing on the choices we actually make. Now a new study provides the first evidence that brain measures can provide significant added value to models for predicting consumer choice.

Value of routine investigations to predict loop diuretic down-titration success in stable heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Martens, Pieter; Verbrugge, Frederik H; Boonen, Levinia; Nijst, Petra; Dupont, Matthias; Mullens, Wilfried

2018-01-01

Guidelines advocate down-titration of loop diuretics in chronic heart failure (CHF) when patients have no signs of volume overload. Limited data are available on the expected success rate of this practice or how routine diagnostic tests might help steering this process. Fifty ambulatory CHF-patients on stable neurohumoral blocker/diuretic therapy for at least 3months without any clinical sign of volume overload were prospectively included to undergo loop diuretic down-titration. All patients underwent a similar pre-down-titration evaluation consisting of a dyspnea scoring, physical examination, transthoracic echocardiography (diastolic function, right ventricular function, cardiac filling pressures and valvular disease), blood sample (serum creatinine, plasma NT-pro-BNP and neurohormones). Loop diuretic maintenance dose was subsequently reduced by 50% or stopped if dose was ≤40mg furosemide equivalents. Successful down-titration was defined as a persistent dose reduction after 30days without weight increase >1.5kg or new-onset symptoms of worsening heart failure. At 30-day follow-up, down-titration was successful in 62% (n=31). In 12/19 patients exhibiting down-titration failure, this occurred within the first week. Physical examination, transthoracic echocardiography and laboratory analysis had limited predictive capability to detect patients with down-titration success/failure (positive likelihood-ratios below 1.5, or area under the curve [AUC] non-statically different from AUC=0.5). Loop diuretic down-titration is feasible in a majority of stable CHF patients in which the treating clinician felt continuation of loops was unnecessary to sustain euvolemia. Importantly, routine diagnostics which suggest euvolemia, have limited diagnostic impact on the post-test probability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of stroke volume variation obtained by arterial pulse contour analysis to predict fluid responsiveness intraoperatively.

Science.gov (United States)

Lahner, D; Kabon, B; Marschalek, C; Chiari, A; Pestel, G; Kaider, A; Fleischmann, E; Hetz, H

2009-09-01

Fluid management guided by oesophageal Doppler monitor has been reported to improve perioperative outcome. Stroke volume variation (SVV) is considered a reliable clinical predictor of fluid responsiveness. Consequently, the aim of the present trial was to evaluate the accuracy of SVV determined by arterial pulse contour (APCO) analysis, using the FloTrac/Vigileo system, to predict fluid responsiveness as measured by the oesophageal Doppler. Patients undergoing major abdominal surgery received intraoperative fluid management guided by oesophageal Doppler monitoring. Fluid boluses of 250 ml each were administered in case of a decrease in corrected flow time (FTc) to 10%. The ability of SVV to predict fluid responsiveness was assessed by calculation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Twenty patients received 67 fluid boluses. Fifty-two of the 67 fluid boluses administered resulted in fluid responsiveness. SVV achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.512 [confidence interval (CI) 0.32-0.70]. A cut-off point for fluid responsiveness was found for SVV > or =8.5% (sensitivity: 77%; specificity: 43%; positive predictive value: 84%; and negative predictive value: 33%). This prospective, interventional observer-blinded study demonstrates that SVV obtained by APCO, using the FloTrac/Vigileo system, is not a reliable predictor of fluid responsiveness in the setting of major abdominal surgery.

High biological variation of serum hyaluronic acid and Hepascore, a biochemical marker model for the prediction of liver fibrosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rossi, Enrico; Adams, Leon A; Ching, Helena L; Bulsara, Max; MacQuillan, Gerry C; Jeffrey, Gary P

2013-05-01

Serum hyaluronic acid and biochemical models which require hyaluronic acid analysis are commonly used as predictors of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic liver disease, however biological variation data for hyaluronic acid are deficient. Four serial serum samples were obtained at weekly intervals from healthy volunteers and patients with chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C and non- alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD; 20 in each group). The within-individual week-to-week variation (CVI) and reference change values for hyaluronic acid, α₂-macroglobulin and Hepascore were obtained. Hepascore is calculated from hyaluronic acid, α2-macroglobulin, bilirubin and γ-glutamyltransferase activity. Hyaluronic acid displayed large within-individual variation, the CVI values were 62% in healthy subjects, 38% in hepatitis C, 37% in hepatitis B and 36% in NAFLD patients. Hepascore CVIs were 43% in healthy subjects, 24% in hepatitis C, 28% in hepatitis B and 39% in NAFLD patients. α₂-Macroglobulin was much less variable with CVIs ranging from 4.4% to 7.6%. Bland-Altman plots of week-to-week variations showed rates of significant disagreement for samples collected in any 2 successive weeks varied from 5% in NAFLD patients to 8.3% in healthy subjects. When using non-fasting serum samples, hyaluronic acid and to a lesser extent, the Hepascore model display large within-individual variations in both health and chronic liver disease. This information is critical for interpreting the significance of both single measurements and changes in serial measurements.

Short communication: Variations in major mineral contents of Mediterranean buffalo milk and application of Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy for their prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Stocco, G; Cipolat-Gotet, C; Bonfatti, V; Schiavon, S; Bittante, G; Cecchinato, A

2016-11-01

The aims of this study were (1) to assess variability in the major mineral components of buffalo milk, (2) to estimate the effect of certain environmental sources of variation on the major minerals during lactation, and (3) to investigate the possibility of using Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy as an indirect, noninvasive tool for routine prediction of the mineral content of buffalo milk. A total of 173 buffaloes reared in 5 herds were sampled once during the morning milking. Milk samples were analyzed for Ca, P, K, and Mg contents within 3h of sample collection using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry. A Milkoscan FT2 (Foss, Hillerød, Denmark) was used to acquire milk spectra over the spectral range from 5,000 to 900 wavenumber/cm. Prediction models were built using a partial least square approach, and cross-validation was used to assess the prediction accuracy of FTIR. Prediction models were validated using a 4-fold random cross-validation, thus dividing the calibration-test set in 4 folds, using one of them to check the results (prediction models) and the remaining 3 to develop the calibration models. Buffalo milk minerals averaged 162, 117, 86, and 14.4mg/dL of milk for Ca, P, K, and Mg, respectively. Herd and days in milk were the most important sources of variation in the traits investigated. Parity slightly affected only Ca content. Coefficients of determination of cross-validation between the FTIR-predicted and the measured values were 0.71, 0.70, and 0.72 for Ca, Mg, and P, respectively, whereas prediction accuracy was lower for K (0.55). Our findings reveal FTIR to be an unsuitable tool when milk mineral content needs to be predicted with high accuracy. Predictions may play a role as indicator traits in selective breeding (if the additive genetic correlation between FTIR predictions and measures of milk minerals is high enough) or in monitoring the milk of buffalo populations for dairy industry purposes. Copyright �

Predicting the success of IVF: external validation of the van Loendersloot's model.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarais, Veronica; Reschini, Marco; Busnelli, Andrea; Biancardi, Rossella; Paffoni, Alessio; Somigliana, Edgardo

2016-06-01

Is the predictive model for IVF success proposed by van Loendersloot et al. valid in a different geographical and cultural context? The model discriminates well but was less accurate than in the original context where it was developed. Several independent groups have developed models that combine different variables with the aim of estimating the chance of pregnancy with IVF but only four of them have been externally validated. One of these four, the van Loendersloot's model, deserves particular attention and further investigation for at least three reasons; (i) the reported area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (c-statistics) in the temporal validation setting was the highest reported to date (0.68), (ii) the perspective of the model is clinically wise since it includes variables obtained from previous failed cycles, if any, so it can be applied to any women entering an IVF cycle, (iii) the model lacks external validation in a geographically different center. Retrospective cohort study of women undergoing oocyte retrieval for IVF between January 2013 and December 2013 at the infertility unit of the Fondazione Ca' Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico of Milan, Italy. Only the first oocyte retrieval cycle performed during the study period was included in the study. Women with previous IVF cycles were excluded if the last one before the study cycle was in another center. The main outcome was the cumulative live birth rate per oocytes retrieval. Seven hundred seventy-two women were selected. Variables included in the van Loendersloot's model and the relative weights (beta) were used. The variable resulting from this combination (Y) was transformed into a probability. The discriminatory capacity was assessed using the c-statistics. Calibration was made using a logistic regression that included Y as the unique variable and live birth as the outcome. Data are presented using both the original and the calibrated models. Performance was evaluated

Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia

OpenAIRE

Loha, Eskindir; Lindtj?rn, Bernt

2010-01-01

Abstract Background Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Methods Retrospective data from 4...

Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shepherd, Simon J.; Zharkov, Sergei I.; Zharkova, Valentina V.

2014-01-01

A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in different layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.

Causal Genetic Variation Underlying Metabolome Differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Swain-Lenz, Devjanee; Nikolskiy, Igor; Cheng, Jiye; Sudarsanam, Priya; Nayler, Darcy; Staller, Max V; Cohen, Barak A

2017-08-01

An ongoing challenge in biology is to predict the phenotypes of individuals from their genotypes. Genetic variants that cause disease often change an individual's total metabolite profile, or metabolome. In light of our extensive knowledge of metabolic pathways, genetic variants that alter the metabolome may help predict novel phenotypes. To link genetic variants to changes in the metabolome, we studied natural variation in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae We used an untargeted mass spectrometry method to identify dozens of metabolite Quantitative Trait Loci (mQTL), genomic regions containing genetic variation that control differences in metabolite levels between individuals. We mapped differences in urea cycle metabolites to genetic variation in specific genes known to regulate amino acid biosynthesis. Our functional assays reveal that genetic variation in two genes, AUA1 and ARG81 , cause the differences in the abundance of several urea cycle metabolites. Based on knowledge of the urea cycle, we predicted and then validated a new phenotype: sensitivity to a particular class of amino acid isomers. Our results are a proof-of-concept that untargeted mass spectrometry can reveal links between natural genetic variants and metabolome diversity. The interpretability of our results demonstrates the promise of using genetic variants underlying natural differences in the metabolome to predict novel phenotypes from genotype. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Peripheral lymphocyte subset variation predicts prostate cancer carbon ion radiotherapy outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Ze-Liang; Li, Bing-Xin; Wu, Xian-Wei; Li, Ping; Zhang, Qing; Wei, Xun-Bin; Fu, Shen

2016-01-01

The immune system plays a complementary role in the cytotoxic activity of radiotherapy. Here, we examined changes in immune cell subsets after heavy ion therapy for prostate cancer. The lymphocyte counts were compared with acute radiotherapy-related toxicity, defined according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, and short-term local efficacy, defined based on prostate-specific antigen concentrations. Confirmed prostate cancer patients who had not received previous radiotherapy were administered carbon ion radiotherapy (CIR) in daily fractions of 2.74 GyE with a total dose of 63-66 GyE. Lymphocyte subset counts were investigated before, during and after radiotherapy, and at a 1 month follow-up. Most notable among our findings, the CD4/CD8 ratio and CD19+ cell counts were consistently higher in patients with a complete response (CR) or partial response (PR) to CIR than in those classified in the stable disease (SD) group (P<0.05 for both). But CD3+ and CD8+ cell counts were lower in the CR and PR groups than in the SD group. These results indicate that variations in peripheral lymphocyte subpopulations are predictive of outcome after CIR for prostate cancer. PMID:27029063

Evolutionary rate variation and RNA secondary structure prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, B.; Andersen, E.S.; Damgaard, C.

2004-01-01

Predicting RNA secondary structure using evolutionary history can be carried out by using an alignment of related RNA sequences with conserved structure. Accurately determining evolutionary substitution rates for base pairs and single stranded nucleotides is a concern for methods based on this type...... by applying rates derived from tRNA and rRNA to the prediction of the much more rapidly evolving 5'-region of HIV-1. We find that the HIV-1 prediction is in agreement with experimental data, even though the relative evolutionary rate between A and G is significantly increased, both in stem and loop regions...

Success: evolutionary and structural properties of amino acids prove effective for succinylation site prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

López, Yosvany; Sharma, Alok; Dehzangi, Abdollah; Lal, Sunil Pranit; Taherzadeh, Ghazaleh; Sattar, Abdul; Tsunoda, Tatsuhiko

2018-01-19

Post-translational modification is considered an important biological mechanism with critical impact on the diversification of the proteome. Although a long list of such modifications has been studied, succinylation of lysine residues has recently attracted the interest of the scientific community. The experimental detection of succinylation sites is an expensive process, which consumes a lot of time and resources. Therefore, computational predictors of this covalent modification have emerged as a last resort to tackling lysine succinylation. In this paper, we propose a novel computational predictor called 'Success', which efficiently uses the structural and evolutionary information of amino acids for predicting succinylation sites. To do this, each lysine was described as a vector that combined the above information of surrounding amino acids. We then designed a support vector machine with a radial basis function kernel for discriminating between succinylated and non-succinylated residues. We finally compared the Success predictor with three state-of-the-art predictors in the literature. As a result, our proposed predictor showed a significant improvement over the compared predictors in statistical metrics, such as sensitivity (0.866), accuracy (0.838) and Matthews correlation coefficient (0.677) on a benchmark dataset. The proposed predictor effectively uses the structural and evolutionary information of the amino acids surrounding a lysine. The bigram feature extraction approach, while retaining the same number of features, facilitates a better description of lysines. A support vector machine with a radial basis function kernel was used to discriminate between modified and unmodified lysines. The aforementioned aspects make the Success predictor outperform three state-of-the-art predictors in succinylation detection.

Why achievement motivation predicts success in business but failure in politics: the importance of personal control.

Science.gov (United States)

Winter, David G

2010-12-01

Several decades of research have established that implicit achievement motivation (n Achievement) is associated with success in business, particularly in entrepreneurial or sales roles. However, several political psychology studies have shown that achievement motivation is not associated with success in politics; rather, implicit power motivation often predicts political success. Having versus lacking control may be a key difference between business and politics. Case studies suggest that achievement-motivated U.S. presidents and other world leaders often become frustrated and thereby fail because of lack of control, whereas power-motivated presidents develop ways to work with this inherent feature of politics. A reevaluation of previous research suggests that, in fact, relationships between achievement motivation and business success only occur when control is high. The theme of control is also prominent in the development of achievement motivation. Cross-national data are also consistent with this analysis: In democratic industrialized countries, national levels of achievement motivation are associated with strong executive control. In countries with low opportunity for education (thus fewer opportunities to develop a sense of personal control), achievement motivation is associated with internal violence. Many of these manifestations of frustrated achievement motivation in politics resemble authoritarianism. This conclusion is tested by data from a longitudinal study of 113 male college students, showing that high initial achievement motivation combined with frustrated desires for control is related to increases in authoritarianism (F-scale scores) during the college years. Implications for the psychology of leadership and practical politics are discussed. © 2010 The Author. Journal of Personality © 2010, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Wild jackdaws' reproductive success and their offspring's stress hormones are connected to provisioning rate and brood size, not to parental neophobia.

Science.gov (United States)

Greggor, Alison L; Spencer, Karen A; Clayton, Nicola S; Thornton, Alex

2017-03-01

Many species show individual variation in neophobia and stress hormones, but the causes and consequences of this variation in the wild are unclear. Variation in neophobia levels could affect the number of offspring animals produce, and more subtly influence the rearing environment and offspring development. Nutritional deficits during development can elevate levels of stress hormones that trigger long-term effects on learning, memory, and survival. Therefore measuring offspring stress hormone levels, such as corticosterone (CORT), helps determine if parental neophobia influences the condition and developmental trajectory of young. As a highly neophobic species, jackdaws (Corvus monedula) are excellent for exploring the potential effects of parental neophobia on developing offspring. We investigated if neophobic responses, alongside known drivers of fitness, influence nest success and offspring hormone responses in wild breeding jackdaws. Despite its consistency across the breeding season, and suggestions in the literature that it should have importance for reproductive fitness, parental neophobia did not predict nest success, provisioning rates or offspring hormone levels. Instead, sibling competition and poor parental care contributed to natural variation in stress responses. Parents with lower provisioning rates fledged fewer chicks, chicks from larger broods had elevated baseline CORT levels, and chicks with later hatching dates showed higher stress-induced CORT levels. Since CORT levels may influence the expression of adult neophobia, variation in juvenile stress responses could explain the development and maintenance of neophobic variation within the adult population. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting hatch success of hawksbill sea turtles on Long Island, Antigua, West Indies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark Allan Ditmer

Full Text Available Current understanding of the factors influencing hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata hatch success is disparate and based on relatively short-term studies or limited sample sizes. Because global populations of hawksbills are heavily depleted, evaluating the parameters that impact hatch success is important to their conservation and recovery. Here, we use data collected by the Jumby Bay Hawksbill Project (JBHP to investigate hatch success. The JBHP implements saturation tagging protocols to study a hawksbill rookery in Antigua, West Indies. Habitat data, which reflect the varied nesting beaches, are collected at egg deposition, and nest contents are exhumed and categorized post-emergence. We analyzed hatch success using mixed-model analyses with explanatory and predictive datasets. We incorporated a random effect for turtle identity and evaluated environmental, temporal and individual-based reproductive variables. Hatch success averaged 78.6% (SD: 21.2% during the study period. Highly supported models included multiple covariates, including distance to vegetation, deposition date, individual intra-seasonal nest number, clutch size, organic content, and sand grain size. Nests located in open sand were predicted to produce 10.4 more viable hatchlings per clutch than nests located >1.5 m into vegetation. For an individual first nesting in early July, the fourth nest of the season yielded 13.2 more viable hatchlings than the initial clutch. Generalized beach section and inter-annual variation were also supported in our explanatory dataset, suggesting that gaps remain in our understanding of hatch success. Our findings illustrate that evaluating hatch success is a complex process, involving multiple environmental and individual variables. Although distance to vegetation and hatch success were inversely related, vegetation is an important component of hawksbill nesting habitat, and a more complete assessment of the impacts of specific

Ladder variational autoencoders

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sønderby, Casper Kaae; Raiko, Tapani; Maaløe, Lars

2016-01-01

Variational autoencoders are powerful models for unsupervised learning. However deep models with several layers of dependent stochastic variables are difficult to train which limits the improvements obtained using these highly expressive models. We propose a new inference model, the Ladder...... Variational Autoencoder, that recursively corrects the generative distribution by a data dependent approximate likelihood in a process resembling the recently proposed Ladder Network. We show that this model provides state of the art predictive log-likelihood and tighter log-likelihood lower bound compared...

Ladder Variational Autoencoder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sønderby, Casper Kaae; Raiko, Tapani; Maaløe, Lars

2016-01-01

Variational autoencoders are powerful models for unsupervised learning. However deep models with several layers of dependent stochastic variables are difficult to train which limits the improvements obtained using these highly expressive models. We propose a new inference model, the Ladder...... Variational Autoencoder, that recursively corrects the generative distribution by a data dependent approximate likelihood in a process resembling the recently proposed Ladder Network. We show that this model provides state of the art predictive log-likelihood and tighter log-likelihood lower bound compared...

Is international junior success a reliable predictor for international senior success in elite combat sports?

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Pingwei; De Bosscher, Veerle; Pion, Johan; Weissensteiner, Juanita R; Vertonghen, Jikkemien

2018-05-01

Currently in the literature, there is a dearth of empirical research that confirms whether international junior success is a reliable predictor for future international senior success. Despite the uncertainty of the junior-senior relationship, federations and coaches still tend to use junior success as a predictor for long-term senior success. A range of former investigations utilising a retrospective lens has merely focused on success that athletes attained at junior level competitions. Success that was achieved at senior-level competitions but at a junior age was relatively ignored. This study explored to what extent international senior success can be predicted based on success that athletes achieved in either international junior level competitions (i.e. junior medalists) or senior competitions at a junior age (i.e. early achievers). The sample contains 4011 international male and female athletes from three combat sports (taekwondo, wrestling and boxing), who were born between 1974 and 1990 and participated in both international junior and senior-level competitions between 1990 and 2016. Gender and sport differences were compared. The results revealed that 61.4% of the junior medalists and 90.4% of the early achievers went on to win international medals at a senior age. Among the early achievers, 92.2% of the taekwondo athletes, 68.4% of the wrestling athletes and 37.9% of the boxing athletes could be reliably "predicted" to win international senior medals. The findings demonstrate that specific to the three combat sports examined, international junior success appears to be an important predictor to long-term international senior success.

Introduction of an Evaluation Tool to Predict the Probability of Success of Companies: The Innovativeness, Capabilities and Potential Model (ICP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Lewrick

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Successful innovation requires management and in this paper a model to help manage the innovation process is presented. This model can be used to audit the management capability to innovate and to monitor how sales increase is related to innovativeness. The model was developed from a study of companies in the high technology cluster around Munich and validated using statistical procedures. The model was found to be effective at predicting the success or otherwise of the innovation strategy pursued by the company. The use of this model and how it can be used to identify areas for improvement are documented in this paper.

Endoscopic Third Ventriculostomy: Success and Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Deopujari, Chandrashekhar E; Karmarkar, Vikram S; Shaikh, Salman T

2017-05-01

Endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV) has now become an accepted mode of hydrocephalus treatment in children. Varying degrees of success for the procedure have been reported depending on the type and etiology of hydrocephalus, age of the patient and certain technical parameters. Review of these factors for predictability of success, complications and validation of success score is presented.

Smart Moves: Effects of Relative Brain Size on Establishment Success of Invasive Amphibians and Reptiles

Science.gov (United States)

Amiel, Joshua J.; Tingley, Reid; Shine, Richard

2011-01-01

Brain size relative to body size varies considerably among animals, but the ecological consequences of that variation remain poorly understood. Plausibly, larger brains confer increased behavioural flexibility, and an ability to respond to novel challenges. In keeping with that hypothesis, successful invasive species of birds and mammals that flourish after translocation to a new area tend to have larger brains than do unsuccessful invaders. We found the same pattern in ectothermic terrestrial vertebrates. Brain size relative to body size was larger in species of amphibians and reptiles reported to be successful invaders, compared to species that failed to thrive after translocation to new sites. This pattern was found in six of seven global biogeographic realms; the exception (where relatively larger brains did not facilitate invasion success) was Australasia. Establishment success was also higher in amphibian and reptile families with larger relative brain sizes. Future work could usefully explore whether invasion success is differentially associated with enlargement of specific parts of the brain (as predicted by the functional role of the forebrain in promoting behavioural flexibility), or with a general size increase (suggesting that invasion success is facilitated by enhanced perceptual and motor skills, as well as cognitive ability). PMID:21494328

Smart moves: effects of relative brain size on establishment success of invasive amphibians and reptiles.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joshua J Amiel

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Brain size relative to body size varies considerably among animals, but the ecological consequences of that variation remain poorly understood. Plausibly, larger brains confer increased behavioural flexibility, and an ability to respond to novel challenges. In keeping with that hypothesis, successful invasive species of birds and mammals that flourish after translocation to a new area tend to have larger brains than do unsuccessful invaders. We found the same pattern in ectothermic terrestrial vertebrates. Brain size relative to body size was larger in species of amphibians and reptiles reported to be successful invaders, compared to species that failed to thrive after translocation to new sites. This pattern was found in six of seven global biogeographic realms; the exception (where relatively larger brains did not facilitate invasion success was Australasia. Establishment success was also higher in amphibian and reptile families with larger relative brain sizes. Future work could usefully explore whether invasion success is differentially associated with enlargement of specific parts of the brain (as predicted by the functional role of the forebrain in promoting behavioural flexibility, or with a general size increase (suggesting that invasion success is facilitated by enhanced perceptual and motor skills, as well as cognitive ability.

Do successful agers live longer? The Vitality 90+ study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nosraty, Lily; Enroth, Linda; Raitanen, Jani; Hervonen, Antti; Jylhä, Marja

2015-02-01

To discover whether successful aging, understood as a multidimensional concept, predicts further survival in very old people. The population sample consisted of 1,370 persons aged 90 or over in the Vitality 90+ study. Four alternative models of successful aging were constructed, each of them consisting of physical, psychological, and social dimensions. Mortality was followed up after 4 and 7 years. Three out of four models significantly predicted survival at both follow-ups for the whole group. Separately, "success" in the physical, psychological, and social components was also associated with higher survival. The associations were stronger in women than in men. Successful aging, measured using physical, psychological, and social dimensions, predicts the length of future life in nonagenarians. © The Author(s) 2014.

The effect of gender on eye colour variation in European populations and an evaluation of the IrisPlex prediction model.

Science.gov (United States)

Pietroni, Carlotta; Andersen, Jeppe D; Johansen, Peter; Andersen, Mikkel M; Harder, Stine; Paulsen, Rasmus; Børsting, Claus; Morling, Niels

2014-07-01

In two recent studies of Spanish individuals, gender was suggested as a factor that contributes to human eye colour variation. However, gender did not improve the predictive accuracy on blue, intermediate and brown eye colours when gender was included in the IrisPlex model. In this study, we investigate the role of gender as a factor that contributes to eye colour variation and suggest that the gender effect on eye colour is population specific. A total of 230 Italian individuals were typed for the six IrisPlex SNPs (rs12913832, rs1800407, rs12896399, rs1393350, rs16891982 and rs12203592). A quantitative eye colour score (Pixel Index of the Eye: PIE-score) was calculated based on digital eye images using the custom made DIAT software. The results were compared with those of Danish and Swedish population samples. As expected, we found HERC2 rs12913832 as the main predictor of human eye colour independently of ancestry. Furthermore, we found gender to be significantly associated with quantitative eye colour measurements in the Italian population sample. We found that the association was statistically significant only among Italian individuals typed as heterozygote GA for HERC2 rs12913832. Interestingly, we did not observe the same association in the Danish and Swedish population. This indicated that the gender effect on eye colour is population specific. We estimated the effect of gender on quantitative eye colour in the Italian population sample to be 4.9%. Among gender and the IrisPlex SNPs, gender ranked as the second most important predictor of human eye colour variation in Italians after HERC2 rs12913832. We, furthermore, tested the five lower ranked IrisPlex predictors, and evaluated all possible 3(6) (729) genotype combinations of the IrisPlex assay and their corresponding predictive values using the IrisPlex prediction model [4]. The results suggested that maximum three (rs12913832, rs1800407, rs16891982) of the six IrisPlex SNPs are useful in practical

Evaluating Conservation Breeding Success for an Extinct-in-the-Wild Antelope.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Holly A Little

Full Text Available With the number of threatened species increasing globally, conservation breeding is vitally important now more than ever. However, no previous peer-reviewed study has attempted to determine how the varying conditions across zoos have influenced breeding by an extinct-in-the-wild species. We therefore use questionnaires and studbook data to evaluate the influence of husbandry practices and enclosure design on scimitar-horned oryx (Oryx dammah breeding success, at the herd level. Regression models were used to identify the variables that best predicted breeding success among 29 zoos across a five-year period. Calf survival decreased with herd age and the use of soft substrates in hardstand areas (yard area usually adjacent to the indoor housing, explaining 30.7% of overall variation. Calf survival also decreased where herds were small and where food provisions were not raised (and hence likely incited competition, although these were less influential. Likewise, birth rate decreased with soft substrates in hardstand areas and unraised food provisions, although these were less influential than for calf survival. Birth rate increased with year-round male presence, yet this decreased calf survival. Compared to previous studies, the number of enclosure/husbandry influences on breeding were relatively few. Nevertheless, these few enclosure/husbandry influences explained over one third of the variation in calf survival. Our data therefore suggest some potential improvements and hence that extinct-in-the-wild species stand a greater chance of survival with empirical design of zoo enclosures and husbandry methods.

Evaluating Conservation Breeding Success for an Extinct-in-the-Wild Antelope.

Science.gov (United States)

Little, Holly A; Gilbert, Tania C; Athorn, Marie L; Marshall, Andrew R

2016-01-01

With the number of threatened species increasing globally, conservation breeding is vitally important now more than ever. However, no previous peer-reviewed study has attempted to determine how the varying conditions across zoos have influenced breeding by an extinct-in-the-wild species. We therefore use questionnaires and studbook data to evaluate the influence of husbandry practices and enclosure design on scimitar-horned oryx (Oryx dammah) breeding success, at the herd level. Regression models were used to identify the variables that best predicted breeding success among 29 zoos across a five-year period. Calf survival decreased with herd age and the use of soft substrates in hardstand areas (yard area usually adjacent to the indoor housing), explaining 30.7% of overall variation. Calf survival also decreased where herds were small and where food provisions were not raised (and hence likely incited competition), although these were less influential. Likewise, birth rate decreased with soft substrates in hardstand areas and unraised food provisions, although these were less influential than for calf survival. Birth rate increased with year-round male presence, yet this decreased calf survival. Compared to previous studies, the number of enclosure/husbandry influences on breeding were relatively few. Nevertheless, these few enclosure/husbandry influences explained over one third of the variation in calf survival. Our data therefore suggest some potential improvements and hence that extinct-in-the-wild species stand a greater chance of survival with empirical design of zoo enclosures and husbandry methods.

Analysis of longitudinal variations in North Pacific alkalinity to improve predictive algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Fry, Claudia H.; Tyrrell, Toby; Achterberg, Eric P.

2016-10-01

The causes of natural variation in alkalinity in the North Pacific surface ocean need to be investigated to understand the carbon cycle and to improve predictive algorithms. We used GLODAPv2 to test hypotheses on the causes of three longitudinal phenomena in Alk*, a tracer of calcium carbonate cycling. These phenomena are (a) an increase from east to west between 45°N and 55°N, (b) an increase from west to east between 25°N and 40°N, and (c) a minor increase from west to east in the equatorial upwelling region. Between 45°N and 55°N, Alk* is higher on the western than on the eastern side, and this is associated with denser isopycnals with higher Alk* lying at shallower depths. Between 25°N and 40°N, upwelling along the North American continental shelf causes higher Alk* in the east. Along the equator, a strong east-west trend was not observed, even though the upwelling on the eastern side of the basin is more intense, because the water brought to the surface is not high in Alk*. We created two algorithms to predict alkalinity, one for the entire Pacific Ocean north of 30°S and one for the eastern margin. The Pacific Ocean algorithm is more accurate than the commonly used algorithm published by Lee et al. (2006), of similar accuracy to the best previously published algorithm by Sasse et al. (2013), and is less biased with longitude than other algorithms in the subpolar North Pacific. Our eastern margin algorithm is more accurate than previously published algorithms.

Cognitive training with and without additional physical activity in healthy older adults: cognitive effects, neurobiological mechanisms, and prediction of training success

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julia eRahe

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Data is inconsistent concerning the question whether cognitive-physical training (CPT yields stronger cognitive gains than cognitive training (CT. Effects of additional counseling, neurobiological mechanisms, and predictors have scarcely been studied. Healthy older adults were trained with CT (n=20, CPT (n=25, or CPT with counseling (CPT+C; n=23. Cognition, physical fitness, BDNF, IGF-1, and VEGF were assessed at pre- and posttest. No interaction effects were found except for one effect showing that CPT+C led to stronger gains in verbal fluency than CPT (p = .03. However, this superiority could not be assigned to additional physical training gains. Low baseline cognitive performance and BDNF, not carrying apoE4, gains in physical fitness and the moderation of gains in physical fitness x gains in BDNF predicted training success. Although all types of interventions seem successful to enhance cognition, our data do not support the hypotheses that CPT shows superior cognitive training gains compared to CT or that CPT+C adds merit to CPT. However, as CPT leads to additional gains in physical fitness which in turn is known to have positive impact on cognition in the long-term, CPT seems more beneficial. Training success can partly be predicted by neuropsychological, neurobiological, and genetic parameters.http://www.who.int/ictrp; ID: DRKS00005194

Developing a stochastic traffic volume prediction model for public-private partnership projects

Science.gov (United States)

Phong, Nguyen Thanh; Likhitruangsilp, Veerasak; Onishi, Masamitsu

2017-11-01

Transportation projects require an enormous amount of capital investment resulting from their tremendous size, complexity, and risk. Due to the limitation of public finances, the private sector is invited to participate in transportation project development. The private sector can entirely or partially invest in transportation projects in the form of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) scheme, which has been an attractive option for several developing countries, including Vietnam. There are many factors affecting the success of PPP projects. The accurate prediction of traffic volume is considered one of the key success factors of PPP transportation projects. However, only few research works investigated how to predict traffic volume over a long period of time. Moreover, conventional traffic volume forecasting methods are usually based on deterministic models which predict a single value of traffic volume but do not consider risk and uncertainty. This knowledge gap makes it difficult for concessionaires to estimate PPP transportation project revenues accurately. The objective of this paper is to develop a probabilistic traffic volume prediction model. First, traffic volumes were estimated following the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process. Monte Carlo technique is then applied to simulate different scenarios. The results show that this stochastic approach can systematically analyze variations in the traffic volume and yield more reliable estimates for PPP projects.

Predicting Rehabilitation Success Rate Trends among Ethnic Minorities Served by State Vocational Rehabilitation Agencies: A National Time Series Forecast Model Demonstration Study

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Corey L.; Wang, Ningning; Washington, Janique Tynez

2017-01-01

Purpose: This study assessed and demonstrated the efficacy of two select empirical forecast models (i.e., autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA] model vs. grey model [GM]) in accurately predicting state vocational rehabilitation agency (SVRA) rehabilitation success rate trends across six different racial and ethnic population cohorts…

Variational predictions of transition energies and electron affinities: He and Li ground states and Li, Be, and Mg core-excited states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, C.F.

1990-01-01

Variational procedures for predicting energy differences of many-electron systems are investigated. Several different calculations for few-electron systems are considered that illustrate the problems encountered when a many-electron system is modeled as a core plus outer electrons. It is shown that sequences of increasingly more accurate calculations for outer correlation may converge yielding wrong transition energies. At the same time, accurate core-polarization calculations overestimate the binding energy, requiring a core-valence correction. For the high-spin, core-excited states of Li, it was found that outer correlation only predicted electron affinities as accurately as full-correlation studies. This observation suggested a prediction of the core-excited 4 P endash 4 S transition in Be - , based on observed 3 P 0 endash 3 P transition energies of the neutral species, predicted electron affinities including only outer correlation, and a core-valence correction, that is shown to be in good agreement with experiment. A similar calculation for Mg - predicts a wavelength of 2895.1 A for this transition

Predictive modeling and reducing cyclic variability in autoignition engines

Science.gov (United States)

Hellstrom, Erik; Stefanopoulou, Anna; Jiang, Li; Larimore, Jacob

2016-08-30

Methods and systems are provided for controlling a vehicle engine to reduce cycle-to-cycle combustion variation. A predictive model is applied to predict cycle-to-cycle combustion behavior of an engine based on observed engine performance variables. Conditions are identified, based on the predicted cycle-to-cycle combustion behavior, that indicate high cycle-to-cycle combustion variation. Corrective measures are then applied to prevent the predicted high cycle-to-cycle combustion variation.

Impact of Stakeholder Psychological Empowerment on Project Success

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Herry Pintardi Chandra

2011-05-01

Full Text Available The relationship between psychological empowerment of stakeholders and project success is an important thing that must be known by project manager. This research developed and tested the model to predict how well the impact of stakeholder psychological empowerment on project success. Stakeholder psychological empowerment was defined to have five indicator variables covering intrinsic motivation, opportunity to perform, ability to perform, task behaviors, and contextual behaviors. Meanwhile, project success can be measured by cost performance, time performance, quality performance, profitability, and customer satisfaction. In this study, it was hypothesized that stakeholder psychological empowerment influenced project success. Based on the data obtained from a questionnaire survey carried out to 204 respondents, structural equation modeling (SEM was used for predicting the performance of project success. It was found that stakeholder psychological empowerment influenced project success, especially on the ability to perform of stakeholders.

Predicting the success of noninvasive positive pressure ventilation in emergency room for patients with acute heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Shirakabe, Akihiro; Hata, Noritake; Yokoyama, Shinya; Shinada, Takuro; Kobayashi, Nobuaki; Tomita, Kazunori; Kitamura, Mitsunobu; Nozaki, Ayaka; Tokuyama, Hideo; Asai, Kuniya; Mizuno, Kyoichi

2011-01-01

Non-invasive positive pressure ventilation (NPPV) for acute heart failure (AHF) is increasingly used to avoid endotracheal intubation (ETI). We therefore reviewed our experience using respirator management in the emergency room for AHF, and evaluated the predictive factors in the success of NPPV in the emergency room. Three-hundred forty-three patients with AHF were analyzed. The AHF patients were assigned to either BiPAP-Synchrony (B-S; Respironics, Merrysville, PA, USA) period (2005-2007, n = 176) or BiPAP-Vision (B-V; Respironics) period (2008-2010, n = 167). The rate of carperitide use was significantly increased and dopamine use was significantly decreased in the B-V period. The total length of hospital stay was significantly shorter in the B-V period. AHF patients were also assigned to a failed trial of NPPV followed by ETI (NPPV failure group) or an NPPV success group in the emergency room for each period. NPPV was successfully used in 48 cases in the B-S period, and in 111 cases in the B-V period. Fifty-seven ETI patients included 45 direct ETI and 11 NPPV failure cases in the B-S period, and 16 ETI patients included 10 direct ETI and 6 NPPV failure cases in the B-V period. The pH values were significantly lower in the NPPV failure than in the NPPV success for both periods (7.19 ± 0.10 vs. 7.28 ± 0.11, B-S period, p successful estimates of NPPV with a high sensitivity and specificity, and the aortic blood gas level was above 7.03 pH when using the B-V system. Copyright © 2011 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fiscal 1997 report on the verification survey of geothermal exploration technology. 5-1. Development of the reservoir variation survey method (technology of prediction of reservoir variation); 1997 nendo chinetsu tansa gijutsu nado kensho chosa. Choryuso hendo tansaho kaihatsu (choryuso hendo yosoku gijutsu) hokokusho

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-03-01

For the reservoir evaluation at an initial developmental stage and stabilization/maintenance of power after the start of operation, the fiscal 1997 result was described of the study of technology of prediction of reservoir variation. Using the conventional post processor, feasibilities were computed of reservoir models and behavior after the development, and gravity/self potential/resistivity variation. Variation in the seismic wave speed structure was large in travel time change distribution. The measuring accuracy of 1m sec is required to get enough detection resolving power. A conceptual design of the post processor development was conducted to study a system operated on Windows. Based on the reservoir numerical simulation technology, by taking in variation parameters such as gravity and self potentials as new model constraint conditions, the reservoir modeling technology which increased in accuracy by history matching was trially developed. Using the conventional reservoir model in the Oguni area, predictably computed were reservoir behaviors during 50 years which simulated a 20 MW development. Effectiveness of the post processor were able to be shown though influenced by characteristics such as permeability and resistivity. 74 refs., 95 refs., 12 tabs.

Fluid Cognitive Ability is a Resource for Successful Emotion Regulation in Older and Younger Adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philipp C. Opitz

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The Selection, Optimization, and Compensation with Emotion Regulation (SOC-ER framework suggests that (1 emotion regulation (ER strategies require resources and that (2 higher levels of relevant resources may increase ER success. In the current experiment, we tested the specific hypothesis that individual differences in one internal class of resources, namely cognitive ability, would contribute to greater success using cognitive reappraisal (CR, a form of ER in which one reinterprets the meaning of emotion-eliciting situations. To test this hypothesis, 60 participants (30 younger and 30 older adults completed standardized neuropsychological tests that assess fluid and crystallized cognitive ability, as well as a CR task in which participants reinterpreted the meaning of sad pictures in order to alter (increase or decrease their emotions. In a control condition, they viewed the pictures without trying to change how they felt. Throughout the task, we indexed subjective emotional experience (self-reported ratings of emotional intensity, expressive behavior (corrugator muscle activity, and autonomic physiology (heart rate and electrodermal activity as measures of emotional responding. Multilevel models were constructed to explain within-subjects variation in emotional responding as a function of ER contrasts comparing increase or decrease conditions with the view control condition and between-subjects variation as a function of cognitive ability and/or age group (older, younger. As predicted, higher fluid cognitive ability – indexed by perceptual reasoning, processing speed, and working memory – was associated with greater success using reappraisal to alter emotional responding. Reappraisal success did not vary as a function of crystallized cognitive ability or age group. Collectively, our results provide support for a key tenet of the SOC-ER framework that higher levels of relevant resources may confer greater success at emotion regulation.

Fluid cognitive ability is a resource for successful emotion regulation in older and younger adults

Science.gov (United States)

Opitz, Philipp C.; Lee, Ihno A.; Gross, James J.; Urry, Heather L.

2014-01-01

The Selection, Optimization, and Compensation with Emotion Regulation (SOC-ER) framework suggests that (1) emotion regulation (ER) strategies require resources and that (2) higher levels of relevant resources may increase ER success. In the current experiment, we tested the specific hypothesis that individual differences in one internal class of resources, namely cognitive ability, would contribute to greater success using cognitive reappraisal (CR), a form of ER in which one reinterprets the meaning of emotion-eliciting situations. To test this hypothesis, 60 participants (30 younger and 30 older adults) completed standardized neuropsychological tests that assess fluid and crystallized cognitive ability, as well as a CR task in which participants reinterpreted the meaning of sad pictures in order to alter (increase or decrease) their emotions. In a control condition, they viewed the pictures without trying to change how they felt. Throughout the task, we indexed subjective emotional experience (self-reported ratings of emotional intensity), expressive behavior (corrugator muscle activity), and autonomic physiology (heart rate and electrodermal activity) as measures of emotional responding. Multilevel models were constructed to explain within-subjects variation in emotional responding as a function of ER contrasts comparing increase or decrease conditions with the view control condition and between-subjects variation as a function of cognitive ability and/or age group (older, younger). As predicted, higher fluid cognitive ability—indexed by perceptual reasoning, processing speed, and working memory—was associated with greater success using reappraisal to alter emotional responding. Reappraisal success did not vary as a function of crystallized cognitive ability or age group. Collectively, our results provide support for a key tenet of the SOC-ER framework that higher levels of relevant resources may confer greater success at emotion regulation. PMID:24987387

Predicting global variation in infectious disease severity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Per Moestrup; de Fine Licht, Henrik Hjarvard

2016-01-01

demographic and population data. Results: Birth rates were the best predictor for mumps and malaria CFR. For tuberculosis CFR death rates were the best predictor and for leptospirosis population density was a significant predictor. Conclusions and implications: CFR predictors differed among diseases according...... and leptospirosis and assessed these for association with a range of population characteristics, such as crude birth and death rates, median age of the population, mean body mass index, proportion living in urban areas and tuberculosis vaccine coverage. We then tested this predictive model on Danish his- torical...... have the opposite effect. Accordingly changes in CFR may occur in parallel with demographic transitions. Methodology: We explored the predictability of CFR using data obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) disease databases for four human diseases: mumps, malaria, tuberculosis...

Variations of starting conditions contribution to cooling tower plume predictions; Uticaj promene polaznih uslova na predvidjanje rasprostiranja perjanica rashladnih tornjeva nuklearne elektrane

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vehauc, A; Zaric, Z [Boris Kidric Institute of nuclear sciences, Vinca, Belgrade (Yugoslavia)

1977-07-01

The paper deals with quantitative contribution of variations of starting conditions to cooling tower plume predictions. The starting conditions are: plume velocity and temperature and concentration of water drops in the plume at the cooling tower outlet. For the same thermal discharge and meteorological conditions, starting conditions are given by characteristics of cooling towers. (author)

Predictable variation of range-sizes across an extreme environmental gradient in a lizard adaptive radiation: evolutionary and ecological inferences.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Pincheira-Donoso

Full Text Available Large-scale patterns of current species geographic range-size variation reflect historical dynamics of dispersal and provide insights into future consequences under changing environments. Evidence suggests that climate warming exerts major damage on high latitude and elevation organisms, where changes are more severe and available space to disperse tracking historical niches is more limited. Species with longer generations (slower adaptive responses, such as vertebrates, and with restricted distributions (lower genetic diversity, higher inbreeding in these environments are expected to be particularly threatened by warming crises. However, a well-known macroecological generalization (Rapoport's rule predicts that species range-sizes increase with increasing latitude-elevation, thus counterbalancing the impact of climate change. Here, I investigate geographic range-size variation across an extreme environmental gradient and as a function of body size, in the prominent Liolaemus lizard adaptive radiation. Conventional and phylogenetic analyses revealed that latitudinal (but not elevational ranges significantly decrease with increasing latitude-elevation, while body size was unrelated to range-size. Evolutionarily, these results are insightful as they suggest a link between spatial environmental gradients and range-size evolution. However, ecologically, these results suggest that Liolaemus might be increasingly threatened if, as predicted by theory, ranges retract and contract continuously under persisting climate warming, potentially increasing extinction risks at high latitudes and elevations.

Predictive value of pulse pressure variation for fluid responsiveness in septic patients using lung-protective ventilation strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Freitas, F G R; Bafi, A T; Nascente, A P M; Assunção, M; Mazza, B; Azevedo, L C P; Machado, F R

2013-03-01

The applicability of pulse pressure variation (ΔPP) to predict fluid responsiveness using lung-protective ventilation strategies is uncertain in clinical practice. We designed this study to evaluate the accuracy of this parameter in predicting the fluid responsiveness of septic patients ventilated with low tidal volumes (TV) (6 ml kg(-1)). Forty patients after the resuscitation phase of severe sepsis and septic shock who were mechanically ventilated with 6 ml kg(-1) were included. The ΔPP was obtained automatically at baseline and after a standardized fluid challenge (7 ml kg(-1)). Patients whose cardiac output increased by more than 15% were considered fluid responders. The predictive values of ΔPP and static variables [right atrial pressure (RAP) and pulmonary artery occlusion pressure (PAOP)] were evaluated through a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Thirty-four patients had characteristics consistent with acute lung injury or acute respiratory distress syndrome and were ventilated with high levels of PEEP [median (inter-quartile range) 10.0 (10.0-13.5)]. Nineteen patients were considered fluid responders. The RAP and PAOP significantly increased, and ΔPP significantly decreased after volume expansion. The ΔPP performance [ROC curve area: 0.91 (0.82-1.0)] was better than that of the RAP [ROC curve area: 0.73 (0.59-0.90)] and pulmonary artery occlusion pressure [ROC curve area: 0.58 (0.40-0.76)]. The ROC curve analysis revealed that the best cut-off for ΔPP was 6.5%, with a sensitivity of 0.89, specificity of 0.90, positive predictive value of 0.89, and negative predictive value of 0.90. Automatized ΔPP accurately predicted fluid responsiveness in septic patients ventilated with low TV.

Dimerized plasmin fragment D as a potential biomarker to predict successful catheter-directed thrombolysis therapy in acute deep vein thrombosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Chien-Ming; Wu, I-Hui; Chan, Chih-Yang; Chen, Yih-Sharng; Yang, Wei-Shiung; Wang, Shoei-Shen

2015-10-01

The value of dimerized plasmin fragment D in the clinical monitoring during the catheter-directed thrombolysis in patients with acute deep vein thrombosis is not known. Dimerized plasmin fragment D levels in 24 patients with acute deep vein thrombosis undergoing catheter-directed thrombolysis were prospectively evaluated. The plasma dimerized plasmin fragment D level was measured serially before and at every 12 h during catheter-directed thrombolysis for 24 h. Technical success was defined as restoration of patency and flow with less than 50% residual thrombus by surveillance rotational venography. Technical success was achieved in 79.2% (19 of 24) of the treated limbs after catheter-directed thrombolysis. In univariate analysis, there was significant elevation of the dimerized plasmin fragment D at 12th h after starting the catheter-directed thrombolysis (P fragment D to predict successful catheter-directed thrombolysis was determined as 18.4 µg/ml at the 12th h after starting the catheter-directed thrombolysis with sensitivity 0.8 and specificity 0.8 (P = 0.03). It was further validated in multivariate logistic regression analysis (odds ratio: 14.38; 95% CI: 1.22-169.20; P = 0.03). Catheter-directed thrombolysis is safe and effective for restoration of blood flow in patients with acute deep vein thrombosis. Dimerized plasmin fragment D value greater than 18.4 µg/ml at the 12th h after starting catheter-directed thrombolysis had a high predictive rate of greater than 50% lysis at the end of catheter-directed thrombolysis. © The Author(s) 2014.

The role of ecosystem memory in predicting inter-annual variations of the tropical carbon balance.

Science.gov (United States)

Bloom, A. A.; Liu, J.; Bowman, K. W.; Konings, A. G.; Saatchi, S.; Worden, J. R.; Worden, H. M.; Jiang, Z.; Parazoo, N.; Williams, M. D.; Schimel, D.

2017-12-01

Understanding the trajectory of the tropical carbon balance remains challenging, in part due to large uncertainties in the integrated response of carbon cycle processes to climate variability. Satellite observations atmospheric CO2 from GOSAT and OCO-2, together with ancillary satellite measurements, provide crucial constraints on continental-scale terrestrial carbon fluxes. However, an integrated understanding of both climate forcings and legacy effects (or "ecosystem memory") on the terrestrial carbon balance is ultimately needed to reduce uncertainty on its future trajectory. Here we use the CARbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) diagnostic model-data fusion approach - constrained by an array of C cycle satellite surface observations, including MODIS leaf area, biomass, GOSAT solar-induced fluorescence, as well as "top-down" atmospheric inversion estimates of CO2 and CO surface fluxes from the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) - to constrain and predict spatially-explicit tropical carbon state variables during 2010-2015. We find that the combined assimilation of land surface and atmospheric datasets places key constraints on the temperature sensitivity and first order carbon-water feedbacks throughout the tropics and combustion factors within biomass burning regions. By varying the duration of the assimilation period, we find that the prediction skill on inter-annual net biospheric exchange is primarily limited by record length rather than model structure and process representation. We show that across all tropical biomes, quantitative knowledge of memory effects - which account for 30-50% of interannual variations across the tropics - is critical for understanding and ultimately predicting the inter-annual tropical carbon balance.

Beyond the GRE: using a composite score to predict 
the success of Puerto Rican students in a biomedical 
PhD program.

Science.gov (United States)

Pacheco, Wendy I; Noel, Richard J; Porter, James T; Appleyard, Caroline B

2015-01-01

The use and validity of the Graduate Record Examination General Test (GRE) to predict the success of graduate school applicants is heavily debated, especially for its possible impact on the selection of underrepresented minorities into science, technology, engineering, and math fields. To better identify candidates who would succeed in our program with less reliance on the GRE and grade point average (GPA), we developed and tested a composite score (CS) that incorporates additional measurable predictors of success to evaluate incoming applicants. Uniform numerical values were assigned to GPA, GRE, research experience, advanced course work or degrees, presentations, and publications. We compared the CS of our students with their achievement of program goals and graduate school outcomes. The average CS was significantly higher in those students completing the graduate program versus dropouts (p thesis defense. In contrast, these outcomes were not predicted by GPA, science GPA, or GRE. Recent implementation of an impromptu writing assessment during the interview suggests the CS can be improved further. We conclude that the CS provides a broader quantitative measure that better predicts success of students in our program and allows improved evaluation and selection of the most promising candidates. © 2015 W. I. Pacheco et al. CBE—Life Sciences Education © 2015 The American Society for Cell Biology. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). It is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

Immobilized metal-affinity chromatography protein-recovery screening is predictive of crystallographic structure success

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Ryan; Kelley, Angela; Leibly, David; Nakazawa Hewitt, Stephen; Napuli, Alberto; Van Voorhis, Wesley

2011-01-01

An overview of the methods used for high-throughput cloning and protein-expression screening of SSGCID hexahistidine recombinant proteins is provided. It is demonstrated that screening for recombinant proteins that are highly recoverable from immobilized metal-affinity chromatography improves the likelihood that a protein will produce a structure. The recombinant expression of soluble proteins in Escherichia coli continues to be a major bottleneck in structural genomics. The establishment of reliable protocols for the performance of small-scale expression and solubility testing is an essential component of structural genomic pipelines. The SSGCID Protein Production Group at the University of Washington (UW-PPG) has developed a high-throughput screening (HTS) protocol for the measurement of protein recovery from immobilized metal-affinity chromatography (IMAC) which predicts successful purification of hexahistidine-tagged proteins. The protocol is based on manual transfer of samples using multichannel pipettors and 96-well plates and does not depend on the use of robotic platforms. This protocol has been applied to evaluate the expression and solubility of more than 4000 proteins expressed in E. coli. The UW-PPG also screens large-scale preparations for recovery from IMAC prior to purification. Analysis of these results show that our low-cost non-automated approach is a reliable method for the HTS demands typical of large structural genomic projects. This paper provides a detailed description of these protocols and statistical analysis of the SSGCID screening results. The results demonstrate that screening for proteins that yield high recovery after IMAC, both after small-scale and large-scale expression, improves the selection of proteins that can be successfully purified and will yield a crystal structure

Similarities and Differences Between Warped Linear Prediction and Laguerre Linear Prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brinker, Albertus C. den; Krishnamoorthi, Harish; Verbitskiy, Evgeny A.

2011-01-01

Linear prediction has been successfully applied in many speech and audio processing systems. This paper presents the similarities and differences between two classes of linear prediction schemes, namely, Warped Linear Prediction (WLP) and Laguerre Linear Prediction (LLP). It is shown that both

Rib Geometry Explains Variation in Dynamic Structural Response: Potential Implications for Frontal Impact Fracture Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Murach, Michelle M; Kang, Yun-Seok; Goldman, Samuel D; Schafman, Michelle A; Schlecht, Stephen H; Moorhouse, Kevin; Bolte, John H; Agnew, Amanda M

2017-09-01

The human thorax is commonly injured in motor vehicle crashes, and despite advancements in occupant safety rib fractures are highly prevalent. The objective of this study was to quantify the ability of gross and cross-sectional geometry, separately and in combination, to explain variation of human rib structural properties. One hundred and twenty-two whole mid-level ribs from 76 fresh post-mortem human subjects were tested in a dynamic frontal impact scenario. Structural properties (peak force and stiffness) were successfully predicted (p rib cross-sectional geometry obtained via direct histological imaging (total area, cortical area, and section modulus) and were improved further when utilizing a combination of cross-sectional and gross geometry (robusticity, whole bone strength index). Additionally, preliminary application of a novel, adaptive thresholding technique, allowed for total area and robusticity to be measured on a subsample of standard clinical CT scans with varied success. These results can be used to understand variation in individual rib response to frontal loading as well as identify important geometric parameters, which could ultimately improve injury criteria as well as the biofidelity of anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) and finite element (FE) models of the human thorax.

Cephalometric variables predicting the long-term success or failure of combined rapid maxillary expansion and facial mask therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Baccetti, Tiziano; Franchi, Lorenzo; McNamara, James A

2004-07-01

The aim of this study was to select a model of cephalometric variables to predict the results of early treatment of Class III malocclusion with rapid maxillary expansion and facemask therapy followed by comprehensive treatment with fixed appliances. Lateral cephalograms of 42 patients (20 boys, 22 girls) with Class III malocclusion were analyzed at the start of treatment (mean age 8 years 6 months +/- 2 years, at stage I in cervical vertebral maturation). All patients were reevaluated after a mean period of 6 years 6 months (at stage IV or V in cervical vertebral maturation) that included active treatment plus retention. At this time, the sample was divided into 2 groups according to occlusal criteria: a successful group (30 patients) and an unsuccessful group (12 patients). Discriminant analysis was applied to select pretreatment predictive variables of long-term treatment outcome. Stepwise variable selection of the cephalometric measurements at the first observation identified 3 predictive variables. Orthopedic treatment of Class III malocclusion might be unfavorable over the long term when a patient's pretreatment cephalometric records exhibit a long mandibular ramus (ie, increased posterior facial height), an acute cranial base angle, and a steep mandibular plane angle. On the basis of the equation generated by the multivariate statistical method, the outcome of interceptive orthopedic treatment for each new patient with Class III malocclusion can be predicted with a probability error of 16.7%.

Variation in predicted internal concentrations in relation to PBPK model complexity for rainbow trout

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salmina, E.S.; Wondrousch, D. [UFZ Department of Ecological Chemistry, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Institute for Organic Chemistry, Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg, Leipziger Str. 29, 09596 Freiberg (Germany); Kühne, R. [UFZ Department of Ecological Chemistry, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Potemkin, V.A. [Department of Chemistry, South Ural State Medical University, Vorovskogo 64, 454048, Chelyabinsk (Russian Federation); Schüürmann, G. [UFZ Department of Ecological Chemistry, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Institute for Organic Chemistry, Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg, Leipziger Str. 29, 09596 Freiberg (Germany)

2016-04-15

The present study is motivated by the increasing demand to consider internal partitioning into tissues instead of exposure concentrations for the environmental toxicity assessment. To this end, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models can be applied. We evaluated the variation in accuracy of PBPK model outcomes depending on tissue constituents modeled as sorptive phases and chemical distribution tendencies addressed by molecular descriptors. The model performance was examined using data from 150 experiments for 28 chemicals collected from US EPA databases. The simplest PBPK model is based on the “K{sub ow}-lipid content” approach as being traditional for environmental toxicology. The most elaborated one considers five biological sorptive phases (polar and non-polar lipids, water, albumin and the remaining proteins) and makes use of LSER (linear solvation energy relationship) parameters to describe the compound partitioning behavior. The “K{sub ow}-lipid content”-based PBPK model shows more than one order of magnitude difference in predicted and measured values for 37% of the studied exposure experiments while for the most elaborated model this happens only for 7%. It is shown that further improvements could be achieved by introducing corrections for metabolic biotransformation and compound transmission hindrance through a cellular membrane. The analysis of the interface distribution tendencies shows that polar tissue constituents, namely water, polar lipids and proteins, play an important role in the accumulation behavior of polar compounds with H-bond donating functional groups. For compounds without H-bond donating fragments preferable accumulation phases are storage lipids and water depending on compound polarity. - Highlights: • For reliable predictions, models of a certain complexity should be compared. • For reliable predictions non-lipid fish tissue constituents should be considered. • H-donor compounds preferably accumulate in water

Variation in predicted internal concentrations in relation to PBPK model complexity for rainbow trout

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salmina, E.S.; Wondrousch, D.; Kühne, R.; Potemkin, V.A.; Schüürmann, G.

2016-01-01

The present study is motivated by the increasing demand to consider internal partitioning into tissues instead of exposure concentrations for the environmental toxicity assessment. To this end, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models can be applied. We evaluated the variation in accuracy of PBPK model outcomes depending on tissue constituents modeled as sorptive phases and chemical distribution tendencies addressed by molecular descriptors. The model performance was examined using data from 150 experiments for 28 chemicals collected from US EPA databases. The simplest PBPK model is based on the “K_o_w-lipid content” approach as being traditional for environmental toxicology. The most elaborated one considers five biological sorptive phases (polar and non-polar lipids, water, albumin and the remaining proteins) and makes use of LSER (linear solvation energy relationship) parameters to describe the compound partitioning behavior. The “K_o_w-lipid content”-based PBPK model shows more than one order of magnitude difference in predicted and measured values for 37% of the studied exposure experiments while for the most elaborated model this happens only for 7%. It is shown that further improvements could be achieved by introducing corrections for metabolic biotransformation and compound transmission hindrance through a cellular membrane. The analysis of the interface distribution tendencies shows that polar tissue constituents, namely water, polar lipids and proteins, play an important role in the accumulation behavior of polar compounds with H-bond donating functional groups. For compounds without H-bond donating fragments preferable accumulation phases are storage lipids and water depending on compound polarity. - Highlights: • For reliable predictions, models of a certain complexity should be compared. • For reliable predictions non-lipid fish tissue constituents should be considered. • H-donor compounds preferably accumulate in water, polar

Can Medical School Performance Predict Residency Performance? Resident Selection and Predictors of Successful Performance in Obstetrics and Gynecology

Science.gov (United States)

Stohl, Hindi E.; Hueppchen, Nancy A.; Bienstock, Jessica L.

2010-01-01

Background During the evaluation process, Residency Admissions Committees typically gather data on objective and subjective measures of a medical student's performance through the Electronic Residency Application Service, including medical school grades, standardized test scores, research achievements, nonacademic accomplishments, letters of recommendation, the dean's letter, and personal statements. Using these data to identify which medical students are likely to become successful residents in an academic residency program in obstetrics and gynecology is difficult and to date, not well studied. Objective To determine whether objective information in medical students' applications can help predict resident success. Method We performed a retrospective cohort study of all residents who matched into the Johns Hopkins University residency program in obstetrics and gynecology between 1994 and 2004 and entered the program through the National Resident Matching Program as a postgraduate year-1 resident. Residents were independently evaluated by faculty and ranked in 4 groups according to perceived level of success. Applications from residents in the highest and lowest group were abstracted. Groups were compared using the Fisher exact test and the Student t test. Results Seventy-five residents met inclusion criteria and 29 residents were ranked in the highest and lowest quartiles (15 in highest, 14 in lowest). Univariate analysis identified no variables as consistent predictors of resident success. Conclusion In a program designed to train academic obstetrician-gynecologists, objective data from medical students' applications did not correlate with successful resident performance in our obstetrics-gynecology residency program. We need to continue our search for evaluation criteria that can accurately and reliably select the medical students that are best fit for our specialty. PMID:21976076

Managing Cultural Variation in Software Process Improvement

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kræmmergaard, Pernille; Müller, Sune Dueholm; Mathiassen, Lars

The scale and complexity of change in software process improvement (SPI) are considerable and managerial attention to organizational culture during SPI can therefore potentially contribute to successful outcomes. However, we know little about the impact of variations in organizational subculture ...... organizations can have important implications for SPI outcomes. Furthermore, it provides insights into how software managers can practically assess subcultures to inform decisions about and help prepare plans for SPI initiatives.......The scale and complexity of change in software process improvement (SPI) are considerable and managerial attention to organizational culture during SPI can therefore potentially contribute to successful outcomes. However, we know little about the impact of variations in organizational subculture...

What Does Successful Aging Mean? Lay Perception of Successful Aging Among Elderly Singaporeans.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Qiushi; Straughan, Paulin Tay

2017-03-01

We explore the culturally specific meaning of successful aging in Singapore, an ethnically diverse city-state in Asia. We aim to investigate lay perceptions of successful aging among the elderly individuals in Singapore and further examine variations of these perceptions. We applied a mixed-method research design. Firstly, we conducted qualitative interviews with 49 elderly respondents, generating 12 main subjective components of successful aging. Next, we did a national survey with a sample of 1,540 local residents aged 50 to 69 years, in which respondents were asked to evaluate the importance of each subjective component of successful aging. We used the regression models and latent class analysis to analyze the correlatives of successful aging and to classify the elderly individuals by perception types. Among 12 components of successful aging, those related to self-sufficiency received the highest acknowledgment among the elderly individuals in Singapore. At least half of them simultaneously highlighted independence from family and dependence on family. Malays and Indians in Singapore valued more of the roles of spouse and children in successful aging, as compared with Chinese. The latent class analysis classified four groups of the elderly individuals according to their lay views on successful aging. As compared with the western model of successful aging, the elderly individuals in Singapore perceived successful aging with a strong focus on familism. These lay perceptions also significantly varied among these elderly individuals. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Variation in aerodynamic coefficients with altitude

Science.gov (United States)

Shahid, Faiza; Hussain, Mukkarum; Baig, Mirza Mehmood; Haq, Ihtram ul

Precise aerodynamics performance prediction plays key role for a flying vehicle to get its mission completed within desired accuracy. Aerodynamic coefficients for same Mach number can be different at different altitude due to difference in Reynolds number. Prediction of these aerodynamics coefficients can be made through experiments, analytical solution or Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). Advancements in computational power have generated the concept of using CFD as a virtual Wind Tunnel (WT), hence aerodynamic performance prediction in present study is based upon CFD (numerical test rig). Simulations at different altitudes for a range of Mach numbers with zero angle of attack are performed to predict axial force coefficient behavior with altitude (Reynolds number). Similar simulations for a fixed Mach number '3' and a range of angle of attacks are also carried out to envisage the variation in normal force and pitching moment coefficients with altitude (Reynolds number). Results clearly depict that the axial force coefficient is a function of altitude (Reynolds number) and increase as altitude increases, especially for subsonic region. Variation in axial force coefficient with altitude (Reynolds number) slightly increases for larger values of angle of attacks. Normal force and pitching moment coefficients do not depend on altitude (Reynolds number) at smaller values of angle of attacks but show slight decrease as altitude increases. Present study suggests that variation of normal force and pitching moment coefficients with altitude can be neglected but the variation of axial force coefficient with altitude should be considered for vehicle fly in dense atmosphere. It is recommended to continue this study to more complex configurations for various Mach numbers with side slip and real gas effects.

Application Of Data Mining Techniques For Student Success And Failure Prediction The Case Of DebreMarkos University

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muluken Alemu Yehuala

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract This research work has investigated the potential applicability of data mining technology to predict student success and failure cases on University students datasets. CRISP-DM Cross Industry Standard Process for Data mining is a data mining methodology to be used by the research. Classification and prediction data mining functionalities are used to extract hidden patterns from students data. These patterns can be seen in relation to different variables in the students records. The classification rule generation process is based on the decision tree and Bayes as a classification technique and the generated rules were studied and evaluated. Data collected from MSEXCEL files and it has been preprocessed for model building. Models were built and tested by using a sample dataset of 11873 regular undergraduate students. Analysis is done by using WEKA 3.7 application software. The research results offer a helpful and constructive recommendations to the academic planners in universities of learning to enhance their decision making process. This will also aid in the curriculum structure and modification in order to improve students academic performance. Students able to decide about their field of study before they are enrolled in specific field of study based on the previous experience taken from the research-findings. The research findings indicated that EHEECE Ethiopian Higher Education Entrance Certificate Examination result Sex Number of students in a class number of courses given in a semester and field of study are the major factors affecting the student performances. So on the bases of the research findings the level of student success will increase and it is possible to prevent educational institutions from serious financial strains.

Variation in GYS1 interacts with exercise and gender to predict cardiovascular mortality.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jenny Fredriksson

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The muscle glycogen synthase gene (GYS1 has been associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D, the metabolic syndrome (MetS, male myocardial infarction and a defective increase in muscle glycogen synthase protein in response to exercise. We addressed the questions whether polymorphism in GYS1 can predict cardiovascular (CV mortality in a high-risk population, if this risk is influenced by gender or physical activity, and if the association is independent of genetic variation in nearby apolipoprotein E gene (APOE. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Polymorphisms in GYS1 (XbaIC>T and APOE (-219G>T, epsilon2/epsilon3/epsilon4 were genotyped in 4,654 subjects participating in the Botnia T2D-family study and followed for a median of eight years. Mortality analyses were performed using Cox proportional-hazards regression. During the follow-up period, 749 individuals died, 409 due to CV causes. In males the GYS1 XbaI T-allele (hazard ratio (HR 1.9 [1.2-2.9], T2D (2.5 [1.7-3.8], earlier CV events (1.7 [1.2-2.5], physical inactivity (1.9 [1.2-2.9] and smoking (1.5 [1.0-2.3] predicted CV mortality. The GYS1 XbaI T-allele predicted CV mortality particularly in physically active males (HR 1.7 [1.3-2.0]. Association of GYS1 with CV mortality was independent of APOE (219TT/epsilon4, which by its own exerted an effect on CV mortality risk in females (2.9 [1.9-4.4]. Other independent predictors of CV mortality in females were fasting plasma glucose (1.2 [1.1-1.2], high body mass index (BMI (1.0 [1.0-1.1], hypertension (1.9 [1.2-3.1], earlier CV events (1.9 [1.3-2.8] and physical inactivity (1.9 [1.2-2.8]. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Polymorphisms in GYS1 and APOE predict CV mortality in T2D families in a gender-specific fashion and independently of each other. Physical exercise seems to unmask the effect associated with the GYS1 polymorphism, rendering carriers of the variant allele less susceptible to the protective effect of exercise on the risk of CV death

Breeding phenology and winter activity predict subsequent breeding success in a trans-global migratory seabird.

Science.gov (United States)

Shoji, A; Aris-Brosou, S; Culina, A; Fayet, A; Kirk, H; Padget, O; Juarez-Martinez, I; Boyle, D; Nakata, T; Perrins, C M; Guilford, T

2015-10-01

Inter-seasonal events are believed to connect and affect reproductive performance (RP) in animals. However, much remains unknown about such carry-over effects (COEs), in particular how behaviour patterns during highly mobile life-history stages, such as migration, affect RP. To address this question, we measured at-sea behaviour in a long-lived migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater (Puffinus puffinus) and obtained data for individual migration cycles over 5 years, by tracking with geolocator/immersion loggers, along with 6 years of RP data. We found that individual breeding and non-breeding phenology correlated with subsequent RP, with birds hyperactive during winter more likely to fail to reproduce. Furthermore, parental investment during one year influenced breeding success during the next, a COE reflecting the trade-off between current and future RP. Our results suggest that different life-history stages interact to influence RP in the next breeding season, so that behaviour patterns during winter may be important determinants of variation in subsequent fitness among individuals. © 2015 The Authors.

Toward Meaningful Manufacturing Variation Data in Design - Feature Based Description of Variation in Manufacturing Processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eifler, Tobias; Boorla, Srinivasa Murthy; Howard, Thomas J.

2016-01-01

The need to mitigate the effects of manufacturing variation already in design is nowadays commonly acknowledged and has led to a wide use of predictive modeling techniques, tolerancing approaches, etc. in industry. The trustworthiness of corresponding variation analyses is, however, not ensured...... by the availability of sophisticated methods and tools alone, but does evidently also depend on the accuracy of the input information used. As existing approaches for the description of manufacturing variation focus however, almost exclusively, on monitoring and controlling production processes, there is frequently...... a lack of objective variation data in design. As a result, variation analyses and tolerancing activities rely on numerous assumptions made to fill the gaps of missing or incomplete data. To overcome this hidden subjectivity, a schema for a consistent and standardised description of manufacturing...

Can brain responses to movie trailers predict success?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.A.S. Boksem (Maarten)

2015-01-01

textabstractDecades of research have shown that much of our mental processing occurs at the subconscious level, including the decisions we make as consumers. These subconscious processes explain why we so often fail to accurately predict our own future choices. Often what we think we want has

Predictors of Success in Dental Hygiene Education: A Six-Year Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Downey, Mary C.; Collins, Marie A.; Browning, William D.

2002-01-01

Examined the predictive reliability of incoming grade point average (GPA), incoming math/science GPA, and Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) scores in predicting success in dental hygiene education. Found that GPA was the most significant predictor of success. (EV)

A Course Specific Perspective in the Prediction of Academic Success.

Science.gov (United States)

Beaulieu, R. P.

1990-01-01

Students (N=94) enrolled in a senior-level management course over six semesters were used to investigate the ability of four measures from two industrial tests to predict course performance. The resulting multiple regression equation with four predictors could accurately predict achievement of males, but not of females. (Author/TE)

Thermospheric mass density variations during geomagnetic storms and a prediction model based on the merging electric field

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, R.; Lühr, H.; Doornbos, E.; Ma, S.-Y.

2010-09-01

With the help of four years (2002-2005) of CHAMP accelerometer data we have investigated the dependence of low and mid latitude thermospheric density on the merging electric field, Em, during major magnetic storms. Altogether 30 intensive storm events (Dstmineffect in order to obtain good results for magnetic storms of all activity levels. The memory effect of the thermosphere is accounted for by a weighted integration of Em over the past 3 h. In addition, a lag time of the mass density response to solar wind input of 0 to 4.5 h depending on latitude and local time is considered. A linear model using the preconditioned color: #000;">Em as main controlling parameter for predicting mass density changes during magnetic storms is developed: ρ=0.5 color: #000;">Em + ρamb, where ρamb is based on the mean density during the quiet day before the storm. We show that this simple relation predicts all storm-induced mass density variations at CHAMP altitude fairly well especially if orbital averages are considered.

Thermography as an early predictive measurement for evaluating epidural and femoral-sciatic block success in dogs.

Science.gov (United States)

Küls, Nina; Blissitt, Karen J; Shaw, Darren J; Schöffmann, Gudrun; Clutton, Richard E

2017-09-01

To evaluate skin temperature increase as an early predictive measure for evaluating epidural and femoral-sciatic block success in dogs. Prospective clinical trial. A total of 29 dogs undergoing orthopaedic surgery on one hindlimb. Dogs were anaesthetized and placed into lateral recumbency with the affected limb uppermost and the coat was clipped. Baseline infrared thermographic images (T0) of the affected limb, of the paw pad of the affected leg and of the ipsilateral paw pad were taken. Subsequently, dogs were administered either an epidural (EPI; n=11) or a femoral-sciatic block (FS; n=18) using bupivacaine 1 mg kg -1 . Then, 2 minutes after placement of the block, thermographic images were obtained every 3 minutes for a total of four measurements (T1-T4) and surgery was commenced. Rescue analgesia consisting of fentanyl 1 μg kg -1 was administered if needed. A regional block was considered successful if the dose of fentanyl administered was less than the lower 95% confidence interval of the geometric mean of the total fentanyl used in each group. A ≥ 1 °C increase of skin temperature was considered as the minimum increase required for detection of a successful block. A total of 12 out of 18 blocks in the FS and eight of 11 in the EPI group were considered successful based on fentanyl consumption. Out of these, only four of 12 in the FS and one of eight in the EPI group developed an increase in temperature of ≥ 1 °C. Contrarily, four of six of the nonsuccessful cases in the FS and three of three in the EPI group developed an increase in temperature of ≥ 1 °C. Contrary to reports in humans, thermography did not indicate regional block success prior to surgery in dogs. However further studies under more controlled conditions are needed to determine whether thermography can be used to indicate failure of regional blockade. Copyright © 2017 Association of Veterinary Anaesthetists and American College of Veterinary Anesthesia and Analgesia. Published

Establishment Success of the Beetle Tapeworm Hymenolepis diminuta Depends on Dose and Host Body Condition

Science.gov (United States)

Jane Cassidy, Elizabeth; Vitt Meyling, Nicolai

2018-01-01

Parasite effects on host fitness and immunology are often intensity-dependent. Unfortunately, only few experimental studies on insect-parasite interactions attempt to control the level of infection, which may contribute substantial variation to the fitness or immunological parameters of interest. The tapeworm Hymenolepis diminuta—flour beetle Tenebrio molitor model—has been used extensively for ecological and evolutionary host–parasite studies. Successful establishment of H. diminuta cysticercoids in T. molitor relies on ingestion of viable eggs and penetration of the gut wall by the onchosphere. Like in other insect models, there is a lack of standardization of the infection load of cysticercoids in beetles. The aims of this study were to: (1) quantify the relationship between exposure dose and establishment success across several H. diminuta egg concentrations; and (2) test parasite establishment in beetles while experimentally manipulating host body condition and potential immune response to infection. Different egg concentrations of H. diminuta isolated from infected rat feces were fed to individual beetles 7–10 days after eclosion and beetles were exposed to starvation, wounding, or insertion of a nylon filament one hour prior to infection. We found that the establishment of cysticercoids in relation to exposure dose could be accurately predicted using a power function where establishment success was low at three lowest doses and higher at the two highest doses tested. Long-term starvation had a negative effect on cysticercoid establishment success, while insertion of a nylon filament and wounding the beetles did not have any effect compared to control treatment. Thus, our results show that parasite load may be predicted from the exposure dose within the observed range, and that the relationship between dose and parasite establishment success is able to withstand some changes in host body condition. PMID:29401652

Establishment Success of the Beetle Tapeworm Hymenolepis diminuta Depends on Dose and Host Body Condition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suraj Dhakal

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Parasite effects on host fitness and immunology are often intensity-dependent. Unfortunately, only few experimental studies on insect-parasite interactions attempt to control the level of infection, which may contribute substantial variation to the fitness or immunological parameters of interest. The tapeworm Hymenolepis diminuta—flour beetle Tenebrio molitor model—has been used extensively for ecological and evolutionary host–parasite studies. Successful establishment of H. diminuta cysticercoids in T. molitor relies on ingestion of viable eggs and penetration of the gut wall by the onchosphere. Like in other insect models, there is a lack of standardization of the infection load of cysticercoids in beetles. The aims of this study were to: (1 quantify the relationship between exposure dose and establishment success across several H. diminuta egg concentrations; and (2 test parasite establishment in beetles while experimentally manipulating host body condition and potential immune response to infection. Different egg concentrations of H. diminuta isolated from infected rat feces were fed to individual beetles 7–10 days after eclosion and beetles were exposed to starvation, wounding, or insertion of a nylon filament one hour prior to infection. We found that the establishment of cysticercoids in relation to exposure dose could be accurately predicted using a power function where establishment success was low at three lowest doses and higher at the two highest doses tested. Long-term starvation had a negative effect on cysticercoid establishment success, while insertion of a nylon filament and wounding the beetles did not have any effect compared to control treatment. Thus, our results show that parasite load may be predicted from the exposure dose within the observed range, and that the relationship between dose and parasite establishment success is able to withstand some changes in host body condition.

Predicting Variation of DNA Shape Preferences in Protein-DNA Interaction in Cancer Cells with a New Biophysical Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Batmanov, Kirill; Wang, Junbai

2017-09-18

DNA shape readout is an important mechanism of transcription factor target site recognition, in addition to the sequence readout. Several machine learning-based models of transcription factor-DNA interactions, considering DNA shape features, have been developed in recent years. Here, we present a new biophysical model of protein-DNA interactions by integrating the DNA shape properties. It is based on the neighbor dinucleotide dependency model BayesPI2, where new parameters are restricted to a subspace spanned by the dinucleotide form of DNA shape features. This allows a biophysical interpretation of the new parameters as a position-dependent preference towards specific DNA shape features. Using the new model, we explore the variation of DNA shape preferences in several transcription factors across various cancer cell lines and cellular conditions. The results reveal that there are DNA shape variations at FOXA1 (Forkhead Box Protein A1) binding sites in steroid-treated MCF7 cells. The new biophysical model is useful for elucidating the finer details of transcription factor-DNA interaction, as well as for predicting cancer mutation effects in the future.

Tail Risk Premia and Return Predictability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Viktor; Xu, Lai

The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may be attribu......The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may......-varying economic uncertainty and changes in risk aversion, or market fears, respectively....

Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giulio Rossetti

Full Text Available Innovations are continuously launched over markets, such as new products over the retail market or new artists over the music scene. Some innovations become a success; others don't. Forecasting which innovations will succeed at the beginning of their lifecycle is hard. In this paper, we provide a data-driven, large-scale account of the existence of a special niche among early adopters, individuals that consistently tend to adopt successful innovations before they reach success: we will call them Hit-Savvy. Hit-Savvy can be discovered in very different markets and retain over time their ability to anticipate the success of innovations. As our second contribution, we devise a predictive analytical process, exploiting Hit-Savvy as signals, which achieves high accuracy in the early-stage prediction of successful innovations, far beyond the reach of state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. Indeed, our findings and predictive model can be fruitfully used to support marketing strategies and product placement.

Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rossetti, Giulio; Milli, Letizia; Giannotti, Fosca; Pedreschi, Dino

2017-01-01

Innovations are continuously launched over markets, such as new products over the retail market or new artists over the music scene. Some innovations become a success; others don't. Forecasting which innovations will succeed at the beginning of their lifecycle is hard. In this paper, we provide a data-driven, large-scale account of the existence of a special niche among early adopters, individuals that consistently tend to adopt successful innovations before they reach success: we will call them Hit-Savvy. Hit-Savvy can be discovered in very different markets and retain over time their ability to anticipate the success of innovations. As our second contribution, we devise a predictive analytical process, exploiting Hit-Savvy as signals, which achieves high accuracy in the early-stage prediction of successful innovations, far beyond the reach of state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. Indeed, our findings and predictive model can be fruitfully used to support marketing strategies and product placement.

Jensen's Inequality Predicts Effects of Environmental Variation

Science.gov (United States)

Jonathan J. Ruel; Matthew P. Ayres

1999-01-01

Many biologists now recognize that environmental variance can exert important effects on patterns and processes in nature that are independent of average conditions. Jenson's inequality is a mathematical proof that is seldom mentioned in the ecological literature but which provides a powerful tool for predicting some direct effects of environmental variance in...

In silico detection of sequence variations modifying transcriptional regulation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malin C Andersen

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Identification of functional genetic variation associated with increased susceptibility to complex diseases can elucidate genes and underlying biochemical mechanisms linked to disease onset and progression. For genes linked to genetic diseases, most identified causal mutations alter an encoded protein sequence. Technological advances for measuring RNA abundance suggest that a significant number of undiscovered causal mutations may alter the regulation of gene transcription. However, it remains a challenge to separate causal genetic variations from linked neutral variations. Here we present an in silico driven approach to identify possible genetic variation in regulatory sequences. The approach combines phylogenetic footprinting and transcription factor binding site prediction to identify variation in candidate cis-regulatory elements. The bioinformatics approach has been tested on a set of SNPs that are reported to have a regulatory function, as well as background SNPs. In the absence of additional information about an analyzed gene, the poor specificity of binding site prediction is prohibitive to its application. However, when additional data is available that can give guidance on which transcription factor is involved in the regulation of the gene, the in silico binding site prediction improves the selection of candidate regulatory polymorphisms for further analyses. The bioinformatics software generated for the analysis has been implemented as a Web-based application system entitled RAVEN (regulatory analysis of variation in enhancers. The RAVEN system is available at http://www.cisreg.ca for all researchers interested in the detection and characterization of regulatory sequence variation.

In Silico Detection of Sequence Variations Modifying Transcriptional Regulation

Science.gov (United States)

Andersen, Malin C; Engström, Pär G; Lithwick, Stuart; Arenillas, David; Eriksson, Per; Lenhard, Boris; Wasserman, Wyeth W; Odeberg, Jacob

2008-01-01

Identification of functional genetic variation associated with increased susceptibility to complex diseases can elucidate genes and underlying biochemical mechanisms linked to disease onset and progression. For genes linked to genetic diseases, most identified causal mutations alter an encoded protein sequence. Technological advances for measuring RNA abundance suggest that a significant number of undiscovered causal mutations may alter the regulation of gene transcription. However, it remains a challenge to separate causal genetic variations from linked neutral variations. Here we present an in silico driven approach to identify possible genetic variation in regulatory sequences. The approach combines phylogenetic footprinting and transcription factor binding site prediction to identify variation in candidate cis-regulatory elements. The bioinformatics approach has been tested on a set of SNPs that are reported to have a regulatory function, as well as background SNPs. In the absence of additional information about an analyzed gene, the poor specificity of binding site prediction is prohibitive to its application. However, when additional data is available that can give guidance on which transcription factor is involved in the regulation of the gene, the in silico binding site prediction improves the selection of candidate regulatory polymorphisms for further analyses. The bioinformatics software generated for the analysis has been implemented as a Web-based application system entitled RAVEN (regulatory analysis of variation in enhancers). The RAVEN system is available at http://www.cisreg.ca for all researchers interested in the detection and characterization of regulatory sequence variation. PMID:18208319

A Novel Risk Score in Predicting Failure or Success for Antegrade Approach to Percutaneous Coronary Intervention of Chronic Total Occlusion: Antegrade CTO Score.

Science.gov (United States)

Namazi, Mohammad Hasan; Serati, Ali Reza; Vakili, Hosein; Safi, Morteza; Parsa, Saeed Ali Pour; Saadat, Habibollah; Taherkhani, Maryam; Emami, Sepideh; Pedari, Shamseddin; Vatanparast, Masoomeh; Movahed, Mohammad Reza

2017-06-01

Total occlusion of a coronary artery for more than 3 months is defined as chronic total occlusion (CTO). The goal of this study was to develop a risk score in predicting failure or success during attempted percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of CTO lesions using antegrade approach. This study was based on retrospective analyses of clinical and angiographic characteristics of CTO lesions that were assessed between February 2012 and February 2014. Success rate was defined as passing through occlusion with successful stent deployment using an antegrade approach. A total of 188 patients were studied. Mean ± SD age was 59 ± 9 years. Failure rate was 33%. In a stepwise multivariate regression analysis, bridging collaterals (OR = 6.7, CI = 1.97-23.17, score = 2), absence of stump (OR = 5.8, CI = 1.95-17.9, score = 2), presence of calcification (OR = 3.21, CI = 1.46-7.07, score = 1), presence of bending (OR = 2.8, CI = 1.28-6.10, score = 1), presence of near side branch (OR = 2.7, CI = 1.08-6.57, score = 1), and absence of retrograde filling (OR = 2.5, CI = 1.03-6.17, score = 1) were independent predictors of PCI failure. A score of 7 or more was associated with 100% failure rate whereas a score of 2 or less was associated with over 80% success rate. Most factors associated with failure of CTO-PCI are related to lesion characteristics. A new risk score (range 0-8) is developed to predict CTO-PCI success or failure rate during antegrade approach as a guide before attempting PCI of CTO lesions.

Chaos in balance: non-linear measures of postural control predict individual variations in visual illusions of motion.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deborah Apthorp

Full Text Available Visually-induced illusions of self-motion (vection can be compelling for some people, but they are subject to large individual variations in strength. Do these variations depend, at least in part, on the extent to which people rely on vision to maintain their postural stability? We investigated by comparing physical posture measures to subjective vection ratings. Using a Bertec balance plate in a brightly-lit room, we measured 13 participants' excursions of the centre of foot pressure (CoP over a 60-second period with eyes open and with eyes closed during quiet stance. Subsequently, we collected vection strength ratings for large optic flow displays while seated, using both verbal ratings and online throttle measures. We also collected measures of postural sway (changes in anterior-posterior CoP in response to the same visual motion stimuli while standing on the plate. The magnitude of standing sway in response to expanding optic flow (in comparison to blank fixation periods was predictive of both verbal and throttle measures for seated vection. In addition, the ratio between eyes-open and eyes-closed CoP excursions during quiet stance (using the area of postural sway significantly predicted seated vection for both measures. Interestingly, these relationships were weaker for contracting optic flow displays, though these produced both stronger vection and more sway. Next we used a non-linear analysis (recurrence quantification analysis, RQA of the fluctuations in anterior-posterior position during quiet stance (both with eyes closed and eyes open; this was a much stronger predictor of seated vection for both expanding and contracting stimuli. Given the complex multisensory integration involved in postural control, our study adds to the growing evidence that non-linear measures drawn from complexity theory may provide a more informative measure of postural sway than the conventional linear measures.

"Whether I like it or not, it's important": Implicit importance of means predicts self-regulatory persistence and success.

Science.gov (United States)

Critcher, Clayton R; Ferguson, Melissa J

2016-06-01

To effectively self-regulate, people must persevere on tasks that they deem important, regardless of whether those tasks are enjoyable. Building on past work that has noted the fundamental role of implicit cognition in guiding effective self-regulation, the present paper tests whether an implicit association between goal means and importance predicts self-regulatory persistence and success. Implicit importance predicted markers of effective self-regulation-better grades, more studying and exercise, and stronger standardized testing performance-over and above, and often better than, explicit beliefs about the importance of that self-regulation, as well as implicit evaluations of those means. In particular, those for whom tasks were fairly taxing to complete (i.e., those for whom this self-regulation required effortful self-control) were those who most benefitted from the implicit association between means and importance. Moreover, when participants were reminded of recent self-regulatory failure that they believed could be overcome through hard work, implicit importance toward the means increased as if to prepare them to achieve self-regulatory persistence. A final study sought to reconcile the present findings with previous work showing the key role that implicit evaluations play in effective self-regulation. We reasoned that means are important precisely because they are associated with valued end-states. Consistent with this account, implicit evaluations of end-states predicted the implicit importance of means, which in turn predicted effective self-regulation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Regional variation in the predictive validity of self-rated health for mortality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edward R. Berchick

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Self-rated health (SRH is a commonly used measure for assessing general health in surveys in the United States. However, individuals from different parts of the United States may vary in how they assess their health. Geographic differences in health care access and in the prevalence of illnesses may make it difficult to discern true regional differences in health when using SRH as a health measure. In this article, we use data from the 1986 and 1989–2006 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files and estimate Cox regression models to examine whether the relationship between SRH and five-year all-cause mortality differs by Census region. Contrary to hypotheses, there is no evidence of regional variation in the predictive validity of SRH for mortality. At all levels of SRH, and for both non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black respondents, SRH is equally and strongly associated with five-year mortality across regions. Our results suggest that differences in SRH across regions are not solely due to differences in how respondents assess their health across regions, but reflect true differences in health. Future research can, therefore, employ this common measure to investigate the geographic patterning of health in the United States.

Prediction of tire/wet road friction and its variation with speed from road macro- and microtexture, and tire-related properties

OpenAIRE

Do , Minh Tan; Delanne , Yves

2004-01-01

In this paper, validation of a model for the speed dependency of friction is presented. Based on the shape of the friction – speed curve, the model assumes that calculation of friction at any speed would need an estimate of friction at very low speed, and the knowledge of its variation with speed described by the Stribeck curve. Two existing models developed at LCPC are then coupled to predict friction versus speed from the following characteristics: road surface macro and microtexture,...

Prediction of Tire/Wet Road Friction and its Variation with speed from Road Macro- and Microtexture, and Tire-Related Properties

OpenAIRE

DO, MT; DELANNE, Y

2004-01-01

In this paper, validation of a model for the speed dependency of friction is presented. Based on the shape of the friction - speed curve, the model assumes that calculation of friction at any speed would need an estimate of friction at very slow speed, and the knowledge of its variation with speed described by the Stribeck curve. Two existing models developed at LCPC are then coupled to predict friction versus speed from the following characteristics road surface macro and microtexture, rubbe...

Group cohesion and starting status in successful and less successful elite volleyball teams.

Science.gov (United States)

Spink, K S

1992-08-01

The main purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between members' perceptions of group cohesion and starting status in elite volleyball teams. The results of the study revealed that the form of the cohesion-starting status relationship was moderated by the variable of success. The results for less successful teams revealed that differences did emerge between specific measures of cohesion endorsed by starters and non-starters. No such differences in cohesion emerged when the starters and non-starters on successful teams were compared. These results provide initial support for the suggestion that the most successful teams are the ones where the perceptions of cohesiveness by starters and non-starters are similar. A secondary purpose of the study was to determine whether those teams that were the most successful and similar in their members' perceptions of cohesiveness, were also the teams whose members have the most positive outcome expectancy. The results supported this prediction.

Variation in aerodynamic coefficients with altitude

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faiza Shahid

Full Text Available Precise aerodynamics performance prediction plays key role for a flying vehicle to get its mission completed within desired accuracy. Aerodynamic coefficients for same Mach number can be different at different altitude due to difference in Reynolds number. Prediction of these aerodynamics coefficients can be made through experiments, analytical solution or Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD. Advancements in computational power have generated the concept of using CFD as a virtual Wind Tunnel (WT, hence aerodynamic performance prediction in present study is based upon CFD (numerical test rig. Simulations at different altitudes for a range of Mach numbers with zero angle of attack are performed to predict axial force coefficient behavior with altitude (Reynolds number. Similar simulations for a fixed Mach number ‘3’ and a range of angle of attacks are also carried out to envisage the variation in normal force and pitching moment coefficients with altitude (Reynolds number. Results clearly depict that the axial force coefficient is a function of altitude (Reynolds number and increase as altitude increases, especially for subsonic region. Variation in axial force coefficient with altitude (Reynolds number slightly increases for larger values of angle of attacks. Normal force and pitching moment coefficients do not depend on altitude (Reynolds number at smaller values of angle of attacks but show slight decrease as altitude increases. Present study suggests that variation of normal force and pitching moment coefficients with altitude can be neglected but the variation of axial force coefficient with altitude should be considered for vehicle fly in dense atmosphere. It is recommended to continue this study to more complex configurations for various Mach numbers with side slip and real gas effects. Keywords: Mach number, Reynolds number, Blunt body, Altitude effect, Angle of attacks

Population genetic variation in gene expression is associated withphenotypic variation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fay, Justin C.; McCullough, Heather L.; Sniegowski, Paul D.; Eisen, Michael B.

2004-02-25

The relationship between genetic variation in gene expression and phenotypic variation observable in nature is not well understood. Identifying how many phenotypes are associated with differences in gene expression and how many gene-expression differences are associated with a phenotype is important to understanding the molecular basis and evolution of complex traits. Results: We compared levels of gene expression among nine natural isolates of Saccharomyces cerevisiae grown either in the presence or absence of copper sulfate. Of the nine strains, two show a reduced growth rate and two others are rust colored in the presence of copper sulfate. We identified 633 genes that show significant differences in expression among strains. Of these genes,20 were correlated with resistance to copper sulfate and 24 were correlated with rust coloration. The function of these genes in combination with their expression pattern suggests the presence of both correlative and causative expression differences. But the majority of differentially expressed genes were not correlated with either phenotype and showed the same expression pattern both in the presence and absence of copper sulfate. To determine whether these expression differences may contribute to phenotypic variation under other environmental conditions, we examined one phenotype, freeze tolerance, predicted by the differential expression of the aquaporin gene AQY2. We found freeze tolerance is associated with the expression of AQY2. Conclusions: Gene expression differences provide substantial insight into the molecular basis of naturally occurring traits and can be used to predict environment dependent phenotypic variation.

Uncertainty analysis of the nonideal competitive adsorption-donnan model: effects of dissolved organic matter variability on predicted metal speciation in soil solution.

Science.gov (United States)

Groenenberg, Jan E; Koopmans, Gerwin F; Comans, Rob N J

2010-02-15

Ion binding models such as the nonideal competitive adsorption-Donnan model (NICA-Donnan) and model VI successfully describe laboratory data of proton and metal binding to purified humic substances (HS). In this study model performance was tested in more complex natural systems. The speciation predicted with the NICA-Donnan model and the associated uncertainty were compared with independent measurements in soil solution extracts, including the free metal ion activity and fulvic (FA) and humic acid (HA) fractions of dissolved organic matter (DOM). Potentially important sources of uncertainty are the DOM composition and the variation in binding properties of HS. HS fractions of DOM in soil solution extracts varied between 14 and 63% and consisted mainly of FA. Moreover, binding parameters optimized for individual FA samples show substantial variation. Monte Carlo simulations show that uncertainties in predicted metal speciation, for metals with a high affinity for FA (Cu, Pb), are largely due to the natural variation in binding properties (i.e., the affinity) of FA. Predictions for metals with a lower affinity (Cd) are more prone to uncertainties in the fraction FA in DOM and the maximum site density (i.e., the capacity) of the FA. Based on these findings, suggestions are provided to reduce uncertainties in model predictions.

[Two-and-a-half year follow-up study of strategy factors in successful learning to predict academic achievements in medical education].

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Soon Ok; Lee, Sang Yeoup; Baek, Sunyong; Woo, Jae Seok; Im, Sun Ju; Yune, So Jung; Lee, Sun Hee; Kam, Beesung

2015-06-01

We performed a two-and-a-half year follow-up study of strategy factors in successful learning to predict academic achievements in medical education. Strategy factors in successful learning were identified using a content analysis of open-ended responses from 30 medical students who were ranked in the top 10 of their class. Core words were selected among their responses in each category and the frequency of the words were counted. Then, a factors survey was conducted among year 2 students, before the second semester. Finally, we performed an analysis to assess the association between the factors score and academic achievement for the same students 2.5 years later. The core words were "planning and execution," "daily reviews" in the study schedule category; "focusing in class" and "taking notes" among class-related category; and "lecture notes," "previous exams or papers," and "textbooks" in the primary self-learning resources category. There were associations between the factors scores for study planning and execution, focusing in class, and taking notes and academic achievement, representing the second year second semester credit score, third year written exam scores and fourth year written and skill exam scores. Study planning was only one independent variable to predict fourth year summative written exam scores. In a two-and-a-half year follow-up study, associations were founded between academic achievement and the factors scores for study planning and execution, focusing in class, and taking notes. Study planning as only one independent variable is useful for predicting fourth year summative written exam score.

Solar cycle variations of geocoronal balmer α emission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nossal, S.; Reynolds, R.J.; Roesler, F.L.; Scherb, F.

1993-01-01

Observations of the geocoronal Balmer in nightglow have been made from Wisconsin for more than a solar cycle with an internally consistent intensity reference to standard astronomical nebulae. These measurements were made with a double etalon, pressure-scanned, 15-cm aperture Fabry-Perot interferometer. The resulting long time data provides an opportunity to examine solar cycle influence on the mid-latitude exosphere and to address accompanying questions concerning the degree to which the exosphere is locally static or changing. The exospheric Balmer α absolute intensity measurements reported here show no statistically significant variations throughout the solar cycle when the variation with viewing geometry is removed by normalizing the data to reference exospheric model predictions by Anderson et al. However, the relative intensity dependence on solar depression angle does show a solar cycle variation. This variation suggests a possible related variation in the exospheric hydrogen density profile, although other interpretations are also possible. The results suggest that additional well-calibrated data taken over a longer time span could probe low-amplitude variations over the solar cycle and test predictions of a slow monotonic increase in exospheric hydrogen arising from greenhouse gases. 21 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs

Subintimal angioplasty: predictors of long-term success.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Keeling, Aoife N

2009-08-01

To determine the clinical outcomes and success rates after percutaneous subintimal angioplasty (SIA) in patients with lower-limb occlusive lesions causing intermittent claudication (IC) or critical limb ischemia (CLI) at midterm to long-term follow-up. The secondary aim was to elicit factors predictive of a successful outcome.

Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations in Shenzhen, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanxia Wang

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Ischemic heart disease (IHD is a leading cause of death worldwide. Urban public health and medical management in Shenzhen, an international city in the developing country of China, is challenged by an increasing burden of IHD. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal variation of IHD hospital admissions from 2003 to 2012 utilizing spatial statistics, spatial analysis, and space-time scan statistics. The spatial statistics and spatial analysis measured the incidence rate (hospital admissions per 1,000 residents and the standardized rate (the observed cases standardized by the expected cases of IHD at the district level to determine the spatio-temporal distribution and identify patterns of change. The space-time scan statistics was used to identify spatio-temporal clusters of IHD hospital admissions at the district level. The other objective of this study was to forecast the IHD hospital admissions over the next three years (2013–2015 to predict the IHD incidence rates and the varying burdens of IHD-related medical services among the districts in Shenzhen. The results show that the highest hospital admissions, incidence rates, and standardized rates of IHD are in Futian. From 2003 to 2012, the IHD hospital admissions exhibited similar mean centers and directional distributions, with a slight increase in admissions toward the north in accordance with the movement of the total population. The incidence rates of IHD exhibited a gradual increase from 2003 to 2012 for all districts in Shenzhen, which may be the result of the rapid development of the economy and the increasing traffic pollution. In addition, some neighboring areas exhibited similar temporal change patterns, which were also detected by the spatio-temporal cluster analysis. Futian and Dapeng would have the highest and the lowest hospital admissions, respectively, although these districts have the highest incidence rates among all of the districts from 2013 to 2015 based on the prediction

Seasonal variation in male alternative reproductive tactics.

Science.gov (United States)

Monroe, M J; Amundsen, T; Utne-Palm, A C; Mobley, K B

2016-12-01

Genetic parentage analyses reveal considerable diversity in alternative reproductive behaviours (e.g. sneaking) in many taxa. However, little is known about whether these behaviours vary seasonally and between populations. Here, we investigate seasonal variation in male reproductive behaviours in a population of two-spotted gobies (Gobiusculus flavescens) in Norway. Male two-spotted gobies guard nests, attract females and care for fertilized eggs. We collected clutches and nest-guarding males early and late in the breeding season in artificial nests and used microsatellite markers to reconstruct parentage from a subset of offspring from each nest. We hypothesized that mating, reproductive success and sneaking should be more prevalent early in the breeding season when competition for mates among males is predicted to be higher. However, parentage analyses revealed similar values of mating, reproductive success and high frequencies of successful sneaking early (30% of nests) and late (27% of nests) in the season. We also found that multiple females with eggs in the same nest were fertilized by one or more sneaker males, indicating that some males in this population engage in a satellite strategy. We contrast our results to previous work that demonstrates low levels of cuckoldry in a population in Sweden. Our results demonstrate marked stability in both the genetic mating system and male alternative reproductive tactics over the breeding season. However, sneaking rates may vary geographically within a species, likely due to local selection influencing ecological factors encountered at different locations. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Status and Mating Success Amongst Visual Artists

Science.gov (United States)

Clegg, Helen; Nettle, Daniel; Miell, Dorothy

2011-01-01

Geoffrey Miller has hypothesized that producing artwork functions as a mating display. Here we investigate the relationship between mating success and artistic success in a sample of 236 visual artists. Initially, we derived a measure of artistic success that covered a broad range of artistic behaviors and beliefs. As predicted by Miller’s evolutionary theory, more successful male artists had more sexual partners than less successful artists but this did not hold for female artists. Also, male artists with greater artistic success had a mating strategy based on longer term relationships. Overall the results provide partial support for the sexual selection hypothesis for the function of visual art. PMID:22059085

[Effects of climate change on forest succession].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jijun; Pei, Tiefan

2004-10-01

Forest regeneration is an important process driven by forest ecological dynamic resources. More and more concern has been given to forest succession issues since the development of forest succession theory during the early twentieth century. Scientific management of forest ecosystem entails the regulations and research models of forest succession. It is of great practical and theoretical significance to restore and reconstruct forest vegetation and to protect natural forest. Disturbances are important factors affecting regeneration structure and ecological processes. They result in temporal and spatial variations of forest ecosystem, and change the efficiencies of resources. In this paper, some concepts about forest succession and disturbances were introduced, and the difficulties of forest succession were proposed. Four classes of models were reviewed: Markov model, GAP model, process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere models (BIOME series models), and non-linear model. Subsequently, the effects of climate change on forest succession caused by human activity were discussed. At last, the existing problem and future research directions were proposed.

Individual diet variation in a marine fish assemblage: Optimal Foraging Theory, Niche Variation Hypothesis and functional identity

Science.gov (United States)

Cachera, M.; Ernande, B.; Villanueva, M. C.; Lefebvre, S.

2017-02-01

Individual diet variation (i.e. diet variation among individuals) impacts intra- and inter-specific interactions. Investigating its sources and relationship with species trophic niche organization is important for understanding community structure and dynamics. Individual diet variation may increase with intra-specific phenotypic (or "individual state") variation and habitat variability, according to Optimal Foraging Theory (OFT), and with species trophic niche width, according to the Niche Variation Hypothesis (NVH). OFT proposes "proximate sources" of individual diet variation such as variations in habitat or size whereas NVH relies on "ultimate sources" related to the competitive balance between intra- and inter-specific competitions. The latter implies as a corollary that species trophic niche overlap, taken as inter-specific competition measure, decreases as species niche width and individual niche variation increase. We tested the complementary predictions of OFT and NVH in a marine fish assemblage using stomach content data and associated trophic niche metrics. The NVH predictions were tested between species of the assemblage and decomposed into a between- and a within-functional group component to assess the potential influence of species' ecological function. For most species, individual diet variation and niche overlap were consistently larger than expected. Individual diet variation increased with intra-specific variability in individual state and habitat, as expected from OFT. It also increased with species niche width but in compliance with the null expectation, thus not supporting the NVH. In contrast, species niche overlap increased significantly less than null expectation with both species niche width and individual diet variation, supporting NVH corollary. The between- and within-functional group components of the NVH relationships were consistent with those between species at the assemblage level. Changing the number of prey categories used to

Evaluating Methods for Isolating Total RNA and Predicting the Success of Sequencing Phylogenetically Diverse Plant Transcriptomes

Science.gov (United States)

Bruskiewich, Richard; Burris, Jason N.; Carrigan, Charlotte T.; Chase, Mark W.; Clarke, Neil D.; Covshoff, Sarah; dePamphilis, Claude W.; Edger, Patrick P.; Goh, Falicia; Graham, Sean; Greiner, Stephan; Hibberd, Julian M.; Jordon-Thaden, Ingrid; Kutchan, Toni M.; Leebens-Mack, James; Melkonian, Michael; Miles, Nicholas; Myburg, Henrietta; Patterson, Jordan; Pires, J. Chris; Ralph, Paula; Rolf, Megan; Sage, Rowan F.; Soltis, Douglas; Soltis, Pamela; Stevenson, Dennis; Stewart, C. Neal; Surek, Barbara; Thomsen, Christina J. M.; Villarreal, Juan Carlos; Wu, Xiaolei; Zhang, Yong; Deyholos, Michael K.; Wong, Gane Ka-Shu

2012-01-01

Next-generation sequencing plays a central role in the characterization and quantification of transcriptomes. Although numerous metrics are purported to quantify the quality of RNA, there have been no large-scale empirical evaluations of the major determinants of sequencing success. We used a combination of existing and newly developed methods to isolate total RNA from 1115 samples from 695 plant species in 324 families, which represents >900 million years of phylogenetic diversity from green algae through flowering plants, including many plants of economic importance. We then sequenced 629 of these samples on Illumina GAIIx and HiSeq platforms and performed a large comparative analysis to identify predictors of RNA quality and the diversity of putative genes (scaffolds) expressed within samples. Tissue types (e.g., leaf vs. flower) varied in RNA quality, sequencing depth and the number of scaffolds. Tissue age also influenced RNA quality but not the number of scaffolds ≥1000 bp. Overall, 36% of the variation in the number of scaffolds was explained by metrics of RNA integrity (RIN score), RNA purity (OD 260/230), sequencing platform (GAIIx vs HiSeq) and the amount of total RNA used for sequencing. However, our results show that the most commonly used measures of RNA quality (e.g., RIN) are weak predictors of the number of scaffolds because Illumina sequencing is robust to variation in RNA quality. These results provide novel insight into the methods that are most important in isolating high quality RNA for sequencing and assembling plant transcriptomes. The methods and recommendations provided here could increase the efficiency and decrease the cost of RNA sequencing for individual labs and genome centers. PMID:23185583

Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study).

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Diana M; Ivanescu, Andrada E; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven B; Marshall, Kaitlyn; Bodrato, Victoria E; Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Sacks, Frank M; Ryan, Donna; Bray, George A

2015-03-01

Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve's capacity to classify participants likely to lose models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Predictive factors for the success of McRoberts' manoeuvre and suprapubic pressure in relieving shoulder dystocia: a cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lok, Zara Lin Zau; Cheng, Yvonne Kwun Yue; Leung, Tak Yeung

2016-10-29

McRoberts' and suprapubic pressure are often recommended as the initial choices of manoeuvres to manage shoulder dystocia, as they are believed to be less invasive compared to other manoeuvres. However, their success rates range from 23 to 40 %. This study aims to investigate the predictive factors for the success of McRoberts' manoeuvre with or without suprapubic pressure (M+/-S). All cases of shoulder dystocia in a tertiary hospital in South East Asia were recruited from 1995 to 2009. Subjects were analysed according to either 'success' or 'failure' of M+/-S. Maternal and fetal antenatal and intrapartum factors were compared by univariate and multivariate analysis. Among 198 cases of shoulder dystocia, M+/-S as the primary manoeuvre was successful in 25.8 %. The other 74.2 % needed either rotational or posterior arm manoeuvres or combination of manoeuvres. Instrumental delivery was the single most significant factor associated with an increased risk of failed M+/-S on logistic regression (p dystocia occurred after instrumental delivery but was 47.7 % after spontaneous vaginal delivery. When shoulder dystocia occurs after instrumental vaginal delivery, the chance of failure of M+/-S is 85 %, which is 4.7 times higher than that after spontaneous vaginal delivery. Hence all operators performing instrumental delivery should be proficient in performing all manoeuvres to relieve shoulder dystocia when M+/-S cannot do so.

A Brief Study of Variation Theory in Quality Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mostafa Farah Bakhsh

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Variation is part of everyday life and exists all the time. Variation is the product of differences. Difference in nature of processes results in different products during the time. Proper diagnosis of variation patterns in minimizing the loss is necessary. Continuous quality improvement is regarded as successive reduction of performance variation for delivering high quality products to the customers. In Deming viewpoint, quality deviation is classified to two groups of common and special causes. Variation is not a new word, but understanding and concerns about it are modern. First step in performance variation management is acceptance and belief of variation. For proper management of variations, appropriate tools should be used for detection and display of them. Control are useful tools in recognition, analysis and removing process performance variations.

Honey bee success predicted by landscape composition in Ohio, USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

DB Sponsler

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Foraging honey bees (Apis mellifera L. can routinely travel as far as several kilometers from their hive in the process of collecting nectar and pollen from floral patches within the surrounding landscape. Since the availability of floral resources at the landscape scale is a function of landscape composition, apiculturists have long recognized that landscape composition is a critical determinant of honey bee colony success. Nevertheless, very few studies present quantitative data relating colony success metrics to local landscape composition. We employed a beekeeper survey in conjunction with GIS-based landscape analysis to model colony success as a function of landscape composition in the State of Ohio, USA, a region characterized by intensive cropland, urban development, deciduous forest, and grassland. We found that colony food accumulation and wax production were positively related to cropland and negatively related to forest and grassland, a pattern that may be driven by the abundance of dandelion and clovers in agricultural areas compared to forest or mature grassland. Colony food accumulation was also negatively correlated with urban land cover in sites dominated by urban and agricultural land use, which does not support the popular opinion that the urban environment is more favorable to honey bees than cropland.

Honey bee success predicted by landscape composition in Ohio, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Sponsler, D B; Johnson, R M

2015-01-01

Foraging honey bees (Apis mellifera L.) can routinely travel as far as several kilometers from their hive in the process of collecting nectar and pollen from floral patches within the surrounding landscape. Since the availability of floral resources at the landscape scale is a function of landscape composition, apiculturists have long recognized that landscape composition is a critical determinant of honey bee colony success. Nevertheless, very few studies present quantitative data relating colony success metrics to local landscape composition. We employed a beekeeper survey in conjunction with GIS-based landscape analysis to model colony success as a function of landscape composition in the State of Ohio, USA, a region characterized by intensive cropland, urban development, deciduous forest, and grassland. We found that colony food accumulation and wax production were positively related to cropland and negatively related to forest and grassland, a pattern that may be driven by the abundance of dandelion and clovers in agricultural areas compared to forest or mature grassland. Colony food accumulation was also negatively correlated with urban land cover in sites dominated by urban and agricultural land use, which does not support the popular opinion that the urban environment is more favorable to honey bees than cropland.

Inter-fraction variations in respiratory motion models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McClelland, J R; Modat, M; Ourselin, S; Hawkes, D J [Centre for Medical Image Computing, University College London (United Kingdom); Hughes, S; Qureshi, A; Ahmad, S; Landau, D B, E-mail: j.mcclelland@cs.ucl.ac.uk [Department of Oncology, Guy' s and St Thomas' s Hospitals NHS Trust, London (United Kingdom)

2011-01-07

Respiratory motion can vary dramatically between the planning stage and the different fractions of radiotherapy treatment. Motion predictions used when constructing the radiotherapy plan may be unsuitable for later fractions of treatment. This paper presents a methodology for constructing patient-specific respiratory motion models and uses these models to evaluate and analyse the inter-fraction variations in the respiratory motion. The internal respiratory motion is determined from the deformable registration of Cine CT data and related to a respiratory surrogate signal derived from 3D skin surface data. Three different models for relating the internal motion to the surrogate signal have been investigated in this work. Data were acquired from six lung cancer patients. Two full datasets were acquired for each patient, one before the course of radiotherapy treatment and one at the end (approximately 6 weeks later). Separate models were built for each dataset. All models could accurately predict the respiratory motion in the same dataset, but had large errors when predicting the motion in the other dataset. Analysis of the inter-fraction variations revealed that most variations were spatially varying base-line shifts, but changes to the anatomy and the motion trajectories were also observed.

Uncertainties in container failure time predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williford, R.E.

1990-01-01

Stochastic variations in the local chemical environment of a geologic waste repository can cause corresponding variations in container corrosion rates and failure times, and thus in radionuclide release rates. This paper addresses how well the future variations in repository chemistries must be known in order to predict container failure times that are bounded by a finite time period within the repository lifetime. Preliminary results indicate that a 5000 year scatter in predicted container failure times requires that repository chemistries be known to within ±10% over the repository lifetime. These are small uncertainties compared to current estimates. 9 refs., 3 figs

Succession and seasonal variation in epilithic biofilms on artificial reefs in culture waters of the sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Liming; Du, Rongbin; Zhang, Xiaoling; Dong, Shuanglin; Sun, Shichun

2017-01-01

Periphytic biofilms in aquaculture waters are thought to improve water quality, provide an additional food source, and improve the survival and growth of some reared animals. In the Asia- Pacific region, particularly in China, artificial reefs are commonly used in the commercial farming of sea cucumbers. However, few studies have examined the epilithic biofilms on the artificial reefs. To gain a better understanding of the succession of epilithic biofilms and their ecological processes in sea cucumber culture waters, two experiments were conducted in culture waters of the sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus in Rongcheng, China, using artificial test panels. On the test panels of succession experiment, more than 67 species were identified in the biofilms. On the test panels of seasonal variation experiment, more than 46 species were recorded in the biofilms. In both experiments, communities of epilithic biofilms were dominated by diatoms, green algae and the annelid Spirorbis sp. In the initial colonization, the dominant diatoms were Cocconeis sp., Amphora spp. and Nitzschia closterium in June, which were succeeded by species of Navicula, Cocconeis and Nitzschia (July to September), and then by Licmophora abbreviata, Nitzschia closterium and Synedra spp. in the following months. A diatom bloom in the autumn and filamentous green algae burst in the summer were also observed. Ecological indices well annotated the succession and seasonal changes in epilithic communities. Multidimensional scaling (MDS) analysis found significant differences in diatom community composition among months and seasons. Fast growth of biofilms was observed in the summer and autumn, whereas the biomass of summer biofilms was largely made up of filamentous green algae. Present results show that the components of epilithic biofilms are mostly optimal foods of A. japonicus, suggesting that biofilms on artificial reefs may contribute important nutritional sources for sea cucumbers during their

Understanding successful and unsuccessful landings of aerial maneuver variations in professional surfing.

Science.gov (United States)

Forsyth, J R; Riddiford-Harland, D L; Whitting, J W; Sheppard, J M; Steele, J R

2018-05-01

Although performing aerial maneuvers can increase wave score and winning potential in competitive surfing, the critical features underlying successful aerial performance have not been systematically investigated. This study aimed to analyze highly skilled aerial maneuver performance and to identify the critical features associated with successful or unsuccessful landing. Using video recordings of the World Surf League's Championship Tour, every aerial performed during the quarterfinal, semifinal, and final heats from the 11 events in the 2015 season was viewed. From this, 121 aerials were identified with the Frontside Air (n = 15) and Frontside Air Reverse (n = 67) being selected to be qualitatively assessed. Using chi-squared analyses, a series of key critical features, including landing over the center of the surfboard (FS Air χ 2  = 14.00, FS Air Reverse χ 2  = 26.61; P < .001) and landing with the lead ankle in dorsiflexion (FS Air χ 2  = 3.90, FS Air Reverse χ 2  = 13.64; P < .05), were found to be associated with successful landings. These critical features help surfers land in a stable position, while maintaining contact with the surfboard. The results of this study provide coaches with evidence to adjust the technique of their athletes to improve their winning potential. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spring weather conditions influence breeding phenology and reproductive success in sympatric bat populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Linton, Danielle M; Macdonald, David W

2018-04-10

Climate is known to influence breeding phenology and reproductive success in temperate-zone bats, but long-term population level studies and interspecific comparisons are rare. Investigating the extent to which intrinsic (i.e. age), and extrinsic (i.e. spring weather conditions), factors influence such key demographic parameters as the proportion of females becoming pregnant, or completing lactation, each breeding season, is vital to understanding of bat population ecology and life-history traits. Using data from 12 breeding seasons (2006-2017), encompassing the reproductive histories of 623 Myotis daubentonii and 436 Myotis nattereri adult females, we compare rates of recruitment to the breeding population and show that these species differ in their relative sensitivity to environmental conditions and climatic variation, affecting annual reproductive success at the population level. We demonstrate that (1) spring weather conditions influence breeding phenology, with warm, dry and calm conditions leading to earlier parturition dates and advanced juvenile development, whilst cold, wet and windy weather delays birth timing and juvenile growth; (2) reproductive rates in first-year females are influenced by spring weather conditions in that breeding season and in the preceding breeding season when each cohort was born. Pregnancy and lactation rates were both higher when favourable spring foraging conditions were more prevalent; (3) reproductive success increases with age in both species, but at different rates; (4) reproductive rates were consistently higher, and showed less interannual variation, in second-year and older M. daubentonii (mean 91.55% ± 0.05 SD) than M. nattereri (mean 72.74% ± 0.15 SD); (5) estimates of reproductive success at the population level were highly correlated with the size of the juvenile cohort recorded each breeding season. Improving understanding of the influence of environmental conditions, especially extreme climatic

Length-scale effect due to periodic variation of geometrically necessary dislocation densities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Oztop, M. S.; Niordson, Christian Frithiof; Kysar, J. W.

2013-01-01

Strain gradient plasticity theories have been successful in predicting qualitative aspects of the length scale effect, most notably the increase in yield strength and hardness as the size of the deforming volume decreases. However new experimental methodologies enabled by recent developments...... of high spatial resolution diffraction methods in a scanning electron microscope give a much more quantitative understanding of plastic deformation at small length scales. Specifically, geometrically necessary dislocation densities (GND) can now be measured and provide detailed information about...... the microstructure of deformed metals in addition to the size effect. Recent GND measurements have revealed a distribution of length scales that evolves within a metal undergoing plastic deformation. Furthermore, these experiments have shown an accumulation of GND densities in cell walls as well as a variation...

Individual differences in self-reported self-control predict successful emotion regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Paschke, Lena M; Dörfel, Denise; Steimke, Rosa; Trempler, Ima; Magrabi, Amadeus; Ludwig, Vera U; Schubert, Torsten; Stelzel, Christine; Walter, Henrik

2016-08-01

Both self-control and emotion regulation enable individuals to adapt to external circumstances and social contexts, and both are assumed to rely on the overlapping neural resources. Here, we tested whether high self-reported self-control is related to successful emotion regulation on the behavioral and neural level. One hundred eight participants completed three self-control questionnaires and regulated their negative emotions during functional magnetic resonance imaging using reappraisal (distancing). Trait self-control correlated positively with successful emotion regulation both subjectively and neurally, as indicated by online ratings of negative emotions and functional connectivity strength between the amygdala and prefrontal areas, respectively. This stronger overall connectivity of the left amygdala was related to more successful subjective emotion regulation. Comparing amygdala activity over time showed that high self-controllers successfully maintained down-regulation of the left amygdala over time, while low self-controllers failed to down-regulate towards the end of the experiment. This indicates that high self-controllers are better at maintaining a motivated state supporting emotion regulation over time. Our results support assumptions concerning a close relation of self-control and emotion regulation as two domains of behavioral control. They further indicate that individual differences in functional connectivity between task-related brain areas directly relate to differences in trait self-control. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Bet hedging in a warming ocean: predictability of maternal environment shapes offspring size variation in marine sticklebacks.

Science.gov (United States)

Shama, Lisa N S

2015-12-01

Bet hedging at reproduction is expected to evolve when mothers are exposed to unpredictable cues for future environmental conditions, whereas transgenerational plasticity (TGP) should be favoured when cues reliably predict the environment offspring will experience. Since climate predictions forecast an increase in both temperature and climate variability, both TGP and bet hedging are likely to become important strategies to mediate climate change effects. Here, the potential to produce variably sized offspring in both warming and unpredictable environments was tested by investigating whether stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) mothers adjusted mean offspring size and within-clutch variation in offspring size in response to experimental manipulation of maternal thermal environment and predictability (alternating between ambient and elevated water temperatures). Reproductive output traits of F1 females were influenced by both temperature and environmental predictability. Mothers that developed at ambient temperature (17 °C) produced larger, but fewer eggs than mothers that developed at elevated temperature (21 °C), implying selection for different-sized offspring in different environments. Mothers in unpredictable environments had smaller mean egg sizes and tended to have greater within-female egg size variability, especially at 21 °C, suggesting that mothers may have dynamically modified the variance in offspring size to spread the risk of incorrectly predicting future environmental conditions. Both TGP and diversification influenced F2 offspring body size. F2 offspring reared at 21 °C had larger mean body sizes if their mother developed at 21 °C, but this TGP benefit was not present for offspring of 17 °C mothers reared at 17 °C, indicating that maternal TGP will be highly relevant for ocean warming scenarios in this system. Offspring of variable environment mothers were smaller but more variable in size than offspring from constant environment

Prediction of successful induction of labour wıth dinoprostone in a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

No significant association was found between transvaginal measurement of cervical length and the success of labour induction (p=0.201). We found no statistically significant difference between failure of labour induction and successful labour induction in terms of transvaginal measurement of cervical length (area under ...

Control of plankton seasonal succession by adaptive grazing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mariani, Patrizio; Andersen, Ken Haste; Visser, Andre

2013-01-01

The ecological succession of phytoplankton communities in temperate seas is characterized by the dominance of nonmotile diatoms during spring and motile flagellates during summer, a pattern often linked to the seasonal variation in the physical environment and nutrient availability. We focus...

The Effect of Ethnic Variation on the Success of Induced Labour in Nulliparous Women with Postdates Pregnancies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimitrios Papoutsis

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. To identify the potential effect of ethnic variation on the success of induction of labour in nulliparous women with postdates pregnancies. Study Design. This was an observational cohort study of women being induced for postdates pregnancies (≥41 weeks between 2007 and 2013. Women induced for stillbirths and with multiple pregnancies were excluded. The primary objective was to identify the effect of ethnicity on the caesarean section (CS delivery rates in this cohort of women. Results. 1,636 nulliparous women were identified with a mean age of 27.2 years. 95.8% of the women were of White ethnic origin, 2.6% were Asian, and 1.6% were of Black ethnic origin. The CS delivery rate was 24.4% in the total sample. Women of Black ethnic origin had a 3.26 times greater likelihood for CS in comparison to White women, after adjusting for maternal age, BMI, smoking, presence of meconium, use of epidural analgesia, fetal gender, birth weight, and head circumference (adjusted OR = 3.26; 95% CI: 1.31–8.08, p = 0.011. Conclusion. We have found that nulliparous women of Black ethnicity demonstrate an almost threefold increased risk of caesarean section delivery when induced for postdates pregnancy.

Predicting spatial variations of tree species richness in tropical forests from high-resolution remote sensing.

Science.gov (United States)

Fricker, Geoffrey A; Wolf, Jeffrey A; Saatchi, Sassan S; Gillespie, Thomas W

2015-10-01

There is an increasing interest in identifying theories, empirical data sets, and remote-sensing metrics that can quantify tropical forest alpha diversity at a landscape scale. Quantifying patterns of tree species richness in the field is time consuming, especially in regions with over 100 tree species/ha. We examine species richness in a 50-ha plot in Barro Colorado Island in Panama and test if biophysical measurements of canopy reflectance from high-resolution satellite imagery and detailed vertical forest structure and topography from light detection and ranging (lidar) are associated with species richness across four tree size classes (>1, 1-10, >10, and >20 cm dbh) and three spatial scales (1, 0.25, and 0.04 ha). We use the 2010 tree inventory, including 204,757 individuals belonging to 301 species of freestanding woody plants or 166 ± 1.5 species/ha (mean ± SE), to compare with remote-sensing data. All remote-sensing metrics became less correlated with species richness as spatial resolution decreased from 1.0 ha to 0.04 ha and tree size increased from 1 cm to 20 cm dbh. When all stems with dbh > 1 cm in 1-ha plots were compared to remote-sensing metrics, standard deviation in canopy reflectance explained 13% of the variance in species richness. The standard deviations of canopy height and the topographic wetness index (TWI) derived from lidar were the best metrics to explain the spatial variance in species richness (15% and 24%, respectively). Using multiple regression models, we made predictions of species richness across Barro Colorado Island (BCI) at the 1-ha spatial scale for different tree size classes. We predicted variation in tree species richness among all plants (adjusted r² = 0.35) and trees with dbh > 10 cm (adjusted r² = 0.25). However, the best model results were for understory trees and shrubs (dbh 1-10 cm) (adjusted r² = 0.52) that comprise the majority of species richness in tropical forests. Our results indicate that high

Asymmetric forceps increase fighting success among males of similar size in the maritime earwig

Science.gov (United States)

Munoz, Nicole E.; Zink, Andrew G.

2012-01-01

Extreme asymmetric morphologies are hypothesized to serve an adaptive function that counteracts sexual selection for symmetry. However direct tests of function for asymmetries are lacking, particularly in the context of animal weapons. The weapon of the maritime earwig, Anisolabis maritima, exhibits sizeable variation in the extent of directional asymmetry within and across body sizes, making it an ideal candidate for investigating the function of asymmetry. In this study, we characterized the extent of weapon asymmetry, characterized the manner in which asymmetric weapons are used in contests, staged dyadic contests between males of different size classes and analyzed the correlates of fighting success. In contests between large males, larger individuals won more fights and emerged as the dominant male. In contests between small males, however, weapon asymmetry was more influential in predicting overall fighting success than body size. This result reveals an advantage of asymmetric weaponry among males that are below the mean size in the population. A forceps manipulation experiment suggests that asymmetry may be an indirect, correlate of a morphologically independent factor that affects fighting ability. PMID:22984320

Successful online learning the five Ps

OpenAIRE

Jim FLOOD

2004-01-01

Successful online learning the five Ps Jim FLOOD E-learning Consultant-UK Key learning points An important aspect of design for online learning is visual ergonomics. Learning theories offer poor predictive power in terms of how learners work and learn. Success at learning is closely related to emotional engagementand learning designers tend to ignore this aspect. Online learning poses a challenging experience for learnersand they need support t...

Salinity independent volume fraction prediction in water-gas-oil multiphase flows using artificial neural networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salgado, C.M.; Pereira, Claudio M.N.A.; Brandao, Luis E.B., E-mail: otero@ien.gov.b, E-mail: cmnap@ien.gov.b, E-mail: brandao@ien.gov.b [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (DIRA/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Div. de Radiofarmacos

2011-07-01

This work investigates the response of a volume fraction prediction system for water-gas-oil multiphase flows considering variations on water salinity. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The detection system uses appropriate fan beam geometry, comprised of a dual-energy gamma-ray source and two NaI(Tl) detectors adequately positioned outside the pipe in order measure transmitted and scattered beams. An ideal and static theoretical model for annular flow regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the ANN. More than 500 simulations have been done, in which water salinity have been ranged from 0 to 16% in order to cover a most practical situations. Validation tests have included values of volume fractions and water salinity different from those used in ANN training phase. The results presented here show that the proposed approach may be successfully applied to material volume fraction prediction on watergas- oil multiphase flows considering practical (real) levels of variations in water salinity. (author)

Salinity independent volume fraction prediction in water-gas-oil multiphase flows using artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salgado, C.M.; Pereira, Claudio M.N.A.; Brandao, Luis E.B.

2011-01-01

This work investigates the response of a volume fraction prediction system for water-gas-oil multiphase flows considering variations on water salinity. The approach is based on gamma-ray pulse height distributions pattern recognition by means the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The detection system uses appropriate fan beam geometry, comprised of a dual-energy gamma-ray source and two NaI(Tl) detectors adequately positioned outside the pipe in order measure transmitted and scattered beams. An ideal and static theoretical model for annular flow regime have been developed using MCNP-X code, which was used to provide training, test and validation data for the ANN. More than 500 simulations have been done, in which water salinity have been ranged from 0 to 16% in order to cover a most practical situations. Validation tests have included values of volume fractions and water salinity different from those used in ANN training phase. The results presented here show that the proposed approach may be successfully applied to material volume fraction prediction on watergas- oil multiphase flows considering practical (real) levels of variations in water salinity. (author)

Determinants of construction project success in India

CERN Document Server

Jha, Kumar Neeraj

2013-01-01

This study presents exploratory work and seeks to identify and evaluate the success and failure factors that could form a guideline for further study and to some extent help professionals to understand some critical aspects that impact project performance concerning construction in India. A total of 55 attributes affecting the performance of construction projects are analysed in terms of their level of influence on four key performance criteria – schedule, cost, quality, and no disputes – using a two-stage questionnaire survey. These attributes are then further analysed, interpreted and evaluated.   Based on the critical success factors obtained from the study, a neural network model-based predictive model for project performance has been developed. The performance prediction models have been derived for all four project performance criteria. Further, a hypothesis that ‘project success’ is influenced by ‘success traits’ has also been formulated. The hypothesized positive inter-relationships betwe...

Predicting diet and consumption rate differences between and within species using gut ecomorphology.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffen, Blaine D; Mosblack, Hallie

2011-07-01

1. Rapid environmental changes and pressing human needs to forecast the consequences of environmental change are increasingly driving ecology to become a predictive science. The need for effective prediction requires both the development of new tools and the refocusing of existing tools that may have previously been used primarily for purposes other than prediction. One such tool that historically has been more descriptive in nature is ecomorphology (the study of relationships between ecological roles and morphological adaptations of species and individuals). 2. Here, we examine relationships between diet and gut morphology for 15 species of brachyuran crabs, a group of pervasive and highly successful consumers for which trophic predictions would be highly valuable. 3. We show that patterns in crab stomach volume closely match some predictions of metabolic theory and demonstrate that individual diet differences and associated morphological variation reflect, at least in some instances, individual choice or diet specialization. 4. We then present examples of how stomach volume can be used to predict both the per cent herbivory of brachyuran crabs and the relative consumption rates of individual crabs. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Patterns of plant species diversity during succession under different disturbance regimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Denslow, Julie Sloan

1980-07-01

I suggest that between-community variations in diversity patterns during succession in plant communities are due to the effects of selection on life history strategies under different disturbance regimes. Natural disturbances to plant communities are simultaneously a source of mortality for some individuals and a source of establishment sites for others. The plant community consists of a mosaic of disturbance patches (gaps) of different environmental conditions. The composition of the mosaic is described by the size-frequency distribution of the gaps and is dependent on the rates and scales of disturbance. The life-history strategies of plant species dependent on some form of disturbance for establishment of propagules should reflect this size-frequency distribution of disturbance patches. An extension of island biogeographic theory to encompass relative habitat area predicts that a community should be most rich in species adapted to growth and establishment in the spatially most common patch types. Changes in species diversity during succession following large scale disturbance reflect the prevalent life history patterns under historically common disturbance regimes. Communities in which the greatest patch area is in large-scale clearings (e.g. following fire) are most diverse in species establishing seedlings in xeric, high light conditions. Species diversity decreases during succession. Communities in which such large patches are rare are characterized by a large number of species that reach the canopy through small gaps and realtively few which regenerate in the large clearings. Diversity increases during succession following a large scale disturbance.Evidence from communities characterized by different disturbance regimes is summarized from the literature. This hypothesis provides an evolutionary mechanism with which to examine the changes in plant community structure during succession. Diversity peaks occurring at "intermediate levels" of disturbance as

High responders and low responders: factors associated with individual variation in response to standardized training.

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, Theresa N; Lamberts, Robert P; Lambert, Michael I

2014-08-01

The response to an exercise intervention is often described in general terms, with the assumption that the group average represents a typical response for most individuals. In reality, however, it is more common for individuals to show a wide range of responses to an intervention rather than a similar response. This phenomenon of 'high responders' and 'low responders' following a standardized training intervention may provide helpful insights into mechanisms of training adaptation and methods of training prescription. Therefore, the aim of this review was to discuss factors associated with inter-individual variation in response to standardized, endurance-type training. It is well-known that genetic influences make an important contribution to individual variation in certain training responses. The association between genotype and training response has often been supported using heritability estimates; however, recent studies have been able to link variation in some training responses to specific single nucleotide polymorphisms. It would appear that hereditary influences are often expressed through hereditary influences on the pre-training phenotype, with some parameters showing a hereditary influence in the pre-training phenotype but not in the subsequent training response. In most cases, the pre-training phenotype appears to predict only a small amount of variation in the subsequent training response of that phenotype. However, the relationship between pre-training autonomic activity and subsequent maximal oxygen uptake response appears to show relatively stronger predictive potential. Individual variation in response to standardized training that cannot be explained by genetic influences may be related to the characteristics of the training program or lifestyle factors. Although standardized programs usually involve training prescribed by relative intensity and duration, some methods of relative exercise intensity prescription may be more successful in creating

Long distance atomic teleportation with as good success as desired

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, Manoj K.; Prakash, Hari

2015-01-01

Long distance atomic teleportation (LDAT) is of prime importance in long distance quantum communication. Scheme proposed by Bose et al. (1999) in principle enables us to have LDAT using cavity decay. However it gives message state dependent fidelity and success rate. Here, using interaction of entangled coherent states with atom–cavity systems and a two-step measurement, we show how, LDAT can be achieved with unit fidelity and as good success as desired under ideal conditions. The scheme is unique in that, the first measurement predicts success or failure. If success is predicted then second measurement gives perfect teleportation. If failure is predicted the message-qubit remains conserved therefore a second attempt may be started. We found that even in presence of decoherence due to dissipation of energy our scheme gives message state independent success rate and almost perfect teleportation in single attempt with mean fidelity of teleportation equal to 0.9 at long distances. However if first attempt fails, unlike ideal case where message-qubit remains conserved with unit fidelity, in presence of decoherence the message-qubit remains conserved to some degree, therefore mean fidelity of teleportation can be increased beyond 0.9 by repeating the process

Long distance atomic teleportation with as good success as desired

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mishra, Manoj K., E-mail: manoj.qit@gmail.com [Physics Department, University of Allahabad (India); Space Applications Centre, Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Ahmedabad (India); Prakash, Hari [Physics Department, University of Allahabad (India); Indian Institute of Information Technology, Allahabad (India)

2015-09-15

Long distance atomic teleportation (LDAT) is of prime importance in long distance quantum communication. Scheme proposed by Bose et al. (1999) in principle enables us to have LDAT using cavity decay. However it gives message state dependent fidelity and success rate. Here, using interaction of entangled coherent states with atom–cavity systems and a two-step measurement, we show how, LDAT can be achieved with unit fidelity and as good success as desired under ideal conditions. The scheme is unique in that, the first measurement predicts success or failure. If success is predicted then second measurement gives perfect teleportation. If failure is predicted the message-qubit remains conserved therefore a second attempt may be started. We found that even in presence of decoherence due to dissipation of energy our scheme gives message state independent success rate and almost perfect teleportation in single attempt with mean fidelity of teleportation equal to 0.9 at long distances. However if first attempt fails, unlike ideal case where message-qubit remains conserved with unit fidelity, in presence of decoherence the message-qubit remains conserved to some degree, therefore mean fidelity of teleportation can be increased beyond 0.9 by repeating the process.

Predictors of successful external cephalic version and assessment of success for vaginal delivery.

Science.gov (United States)

Salzer, Liat; Nagar, Ran; Melamed, Nir; Wiznitzer, Arnon; Peled, Yoav; Yogev, Yariv

2015-01-01

To identify predictors of successful external cephalic version (ECV) and to compare delivery outcome between women who had a successful ECV and women with spontaneous vertex presentation. A retrospective cohort study of all women who underwent ECV in a single tertiary medical center between 2007 and 2011. Delivery outcome was compared between women who underwent a trial of vaginal delivery following successful ECV with that of a control group in a 2:1 ratio. Multivariate analysis was used to identify predictors of successful ECV. Overall 287 were eligible for the study group. Of these 130 (45.3%) had a successful ECV. Polyhydramnios was the strongest factor associated with successful ECV (OR=3.1, 95%-CI 1.4-7.2), followed by transverse lie (versus breech presentation, OR=2.6, 95%-CI 1.2-6.7) and a posterior placenta (OR=1.7, 95%-CI 1.1-3.9), while nulliparity was associated with a lower likelihood of successful ECV (OR=0.4, 95%-CI 0.2-0.6). Women who had a successful ECV and underwent a trial of labor were more likely to deliver by operative vaginal delivery (OVD) (OR=1.8, 95%-CI 1.2-3.6), mainly due to a higher rate of prolonged 2nd, but were not at an increased risk for CS (OR=0.9, 95%-CI 0.4-2.4). Counselling to women prior to ECV should address the likelihood of success based on the predicting factors described above, as well as the increased risk for OVD in the case of successful ECV.

Predicting Species-Resolved Macronutrient Acquisition during Succession in a Model Phototrophic Biofilm Using an Integrated ‘Omics Approach

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Stephen R. Lindemann

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The principles governing acquisition and interspecies exchange of nutrients in microbial communities and how those exchanges impact community productivity are poorly understood. Here, we examine energy and macronutrient acquisition in unicyanobacterial consortia for which species-resolved genome information exists for all members, allowing us to use multi-omic approaches to predict species’ abilities to acquire resources and examine expression of resource-acquisition genes during succession. Metabolic reconstruction indicated that a majority of heterotrophic community members lacked the genes required to directly acquire the inorganic nutrients provided in culture medium, suggesting high metabolic interdependency. The sole primary producer in consortium UCC-O, cyanobacterium Phormidium sp. OSCR, displayed declining expression of energy harvest, carbon fixation, and nitrate and sulfate reduction proteins but sharply increasing phosphate transporter expression over 28 days. Most heterotrophic members likewise exhibited signs of phosphorus starvation during succession. Though similar in their responses to phosphorus limitation, heterotrophs displayed species-specific expression of nitrogen acquisition genes. These results suggest niche partitioning around nitrogen sources may structure the community when organisms directly compete for limited phosphate. Such niche complementarity around nitrogen sources may increase community diversity and productivity in phosphate-limited phototrophic communities.

Testing relations of crystallized and fluid intelligence and the incremental predictive validity of conscientiousness and its facets on career success in a small sample of German and Swiss workers

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Priska eHagmann-von Arx

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This study examined the relation of fluid and crystallized intelligence with extrinsic (occupational skill level, income and intrinsic (job satisfaction career success as well as the incremental predictive validity of conscientiousness and its facets. Participants (N = 121 completed the Reynolds Intellectual Assessment Scales (RIAS, the Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R and reported their occupational skill level, income and job satisfaction. Results revealed that crystallized intelligence was positively related to occupational skill level, but not to income. The association of crystallized intelligence and job satisfaction was negative and stronger for the lowest occupational skill level, whereas it was non-significant for higher levels. Fluid intelligence showed no association with career success. Beyond intelligence, conscientiousness and its facet self-discipline were associated with income, whereas conscientiousness and its facets competence and achievement striving were associated with job satisfaction. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for the assessment process as well as for future research to adequately predict career success.

Forecasting the Success of Implementing Sensors Advanced Manufacturing Technology

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Cheng-Shih Su

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This paper is presented fuzzy preference relations approach to forecast the success of implementing sensors advanced manufacturing technology (AMT. In the manufacturing environment, performance measurement is based on different quantitative and qualitative factors. This study proposes an analytic hierarchical prediction model based on fuzzy preference relations to help the organizations become aware of the essential factors affecting the AMT implementation, forecasting the chance of successful implementing sensors AMT, as well as identifying the actions necessary before implementing sensors AMT. Then predicted success/failure values are obtained to enable organizations to decide whether to initiate sensors AMT, inhibit adoption or take remedial actions to increase the possibility of successful sensors AMT initiatives. This proposed approach is demonstrated with a real case study involving six influential factors assessed by nine evaluators solicited from a semiconductor engineering incorporation located in Taiwan.

Prognostic factors of successful tympanoplasty in pediatric patients: a cohort study

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Boronat-Echeverría Nuria

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Tympanoplasty in children is a current and controversial theme. The success of tympanoplasty traditionally has been measured only by the post-operative integrity of the graft. Yet, there are other variables that may be used to determine success. The objectives of the present work were to analyze which factors are predictive of successful tympanoplasty in pediatric patients and to construct and validate a prognostic index that could be used as a tool to predict the success of tympanoplasty in children. Methods Setting. Department of Pediatric Otorhinolaryngology, tertiary-care hospital, Mexico City. Patients. Forty-eight patients, who were older that five years of age, had persistent perforation of the tympanic membrane, and had undergone tympanoplasty (January 2005–June 2008, were followed for a year. Main Outcome Measures. The factors tested for their value as predictors were the following: age at time of surgery, state of contralateral ear, previous adenoidectomy, cause of perforation, size of perforation, infection at the time of surgery, state of mucosa, age at first occurrence of perforation, presence of craniofacial dysmorphia, and surgical technique. These factors were compared with the criterion, success, which was defined as attaining three positive outcomes: 1 integrity of the implant or membrane; 2 minimum of 10-dB gain in the auditory threshold or, in the case of normal hearing, conservation of same; and 3 air-filled space in the middle ear. The best model was obtained through logistic regression analysis; the model was validated. Results The most balanced prediction model was that in which the three success criteria were included, with age, surgical technique, and infection at surgery being excluded as variables. The additional 12 pediatric cases used in the validation had a probability of success >0.425 (best cut-off level; two patients (17% had poor evolution. Conclusions This is the first study that

Investigating University Students' Attitudes towards Physics Lesson, Their Self-Efficacy Beliefs and Burnout Levels for the Prediction of Their Academic Success in Physics Lessons

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Capri, Burhan

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to find out whether university students' attitudes towards physics lesson, their self-efficacy beliefs and burnout levels predict their academic success in physics lessons. The research group consists of 641 university students of which 307 are girls (47.1%) and 334 boys (52.9%). The research data were collected using…

Developmental constraints revealed by co-variation within and among molar rows in two murine rodents.

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Renaud, Sabrina; Pantalacci, Sophie; Quéré, Jean-Pierre; Laudet, Vincent; Auffray, Jean-Christophe

2009-01-01

Morphological integration corresponds to interdependency between characters that can arise from several causes. Proximal causes of integration include that different phenotypic features may share common genetic sets and/or interact during their development. Ultimate causes may be the prolonged effect of selection favoring integration of functionally interacting characters, achieved by the molding of these proximal causes. Strong and direct interactions among successive teeth of a molar row are predicted by genetic and developmental evidences. Functional constraints related to occlusion, however, should have selected more strongly for a morphological integration of occluding teeth and a corresponding evolution of the underlying developmental and genetic pathways. To investigate how these predictions match the patterns of phenotypic integration, we studied the co-variation among the six molars of the murine molar row, focusing on two populations of house mice (Mus musculus domesticus) and wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus). The size and shape of the three upper and lower molars were quantified and compared. Our results evidenced similar patterns in both species, size being more integrated than shape among all the teeth, and both size and shape co-varying strongly between adjacent teeth, but also between occluding teeth. Strong co-variation within each molar row is in agreement with developmental models showing a cascade influence of the first molar on the subsequent molars. In contrast, the strong co-variation between molars of the occluding tooth rows confirms that functional constraints molded patterns of integration and probably the underlying developmental pathways despite the low level of direct developmental interactions occurring among molar rows. These patterns of co-variation are furthermore conserved between the house mouse and the wood mouse that diverged >10 Ma, suggesting that they may constitute long-running constraints to the diversification of the murine

Oxytocin receptor gene variation predicts subjective responses to MDMA.

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Bershad, Anya K; Weafer, Jessica J; Kirkpatrick, Matthew G; Wardle, Margaret C; Miller, Melissa A; de Wit, Harriet

2016-12-01

3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA, "ecstasy") enhances desire to socialize and feelings of empathy, which are thought to be related to increased oxytocin levels. Thus, variation in the oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR) may influence responses to the drug. Here, we examined the influence of a single OXTR nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) on responses to MDMA in humans. Based on findings that carriers of the A allele at rs53576 exhibit reduced sensitivity to oxytocin-induced social behavior, we hypothesized that these individuals would show reduced subjective responses to MDMA, including sociability. In this three-session, double blind, within-subjects study, healthy volunteers with past MDMA experience (N = 68) received a MDMA (0, 0.75 mg/kg, and 1.5 mg/kg) and provided self-report ratings of sociability, anxiety, and drug effects. These responses were examined in relation to rs53576. MDMA (1.5 mg/kg) did not increase sociability in individuals with the A/A genotype as it did in G allele carriers. The genotypic groups did not differ in responses at the lower MDMA dose, or in cardiovascular or other subjective responses. These findings are consistent with the idea that MDMA-induced sociability is mediated by oxytocin, and that variation in the oxytocin receptor gene may influence responses to the drug.

Seasonal Climate Predictability in a Coupled OAGCM Using a Different Approach for Ensemble Forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Jing-Jia; Masson, Sebastien; Behera, Swadhin; Shingu, Satoru; Yamagata, Toshio

2005-11-01

Predictabilities of tropical climate signals are investigated using a relatively high resolution Scale Interaction Experiment Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) coupled GCM (SINTEX-F). Five ensemble forecast members are generated by perturbing the model’s coupling physics, which accounts for the uncertainties of both initial conditions and model physics. Because of the model’s good performance in simulating the climatology and ENSO in the tropical Pacific, a simple coupled SST-nudging scheme generates realistic thermocline and surface wind variations in the equatorial Pacific. Several westerly and easterly wind bursts in the western Pacific are also captured.Hindcast results for the period 1982 2001 show a high predictability of ENSO. All past El Niño and La Niña events, including the strongest 1997/98 warm episode, are successfully predicted with the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) skill scores above 0.7 at the 12-month lead time. The predicted signals of some particular events, however, become weak with a delay in the phase at mid and long lead times. This is found to be related to the intraseasonal wind bursts that are unpredicted beyond a few months of lead time. The model forecasts also show a “spring prediction barrier” similar to that in observations. Spatial SST anomalies, teleconnection, and global drought/flood during three different phases of ENSO are successfully predicted at 9 12-month lead times.In the tropical North Atlantic and southwestern Indian Ocean, where ENSO has predominant influences, the model shows skillful predictions at the 7 12-month lead times. The distinct signal of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event in 1994 is predicted at the 6-month lead time. SST anomalies near the western coast of Australia are also predicted beyond the 12-month lead time because of pronounced decadal signals there.

Thermospheric mass density variations during geomagnetic storms and a prediction model based on the merging electric field

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R. Liu

2010-09-01

Full Text Available With the help of four years (2002–2005 of CHAMP accelerometer data we have investigated the dependence of low and mid latitude thermospheric density on the merging electric field, Em, during major magnetic storms. Altogether 30 intensive storm events (Dstmin<−100 nT are chosen for a statistical study. In order to achieve a good correlation Em is preconditioned. Contrary to general opinion, Em has to be applied without saturation effect in order to obtain good results for magnetic storms of all activity levels. The memory effect of the thermosphere is accounted for by a weighted integration of Em over the past 3 h. In addition, a lag time of the mass density response to solar wind input of 0 to 4.5 h depending on latitude and local time is considered. A linear model using the preconditioned Em as main controlling parameter for predicting mass density changes during magnetic storms is developed: ρ=0.5 Em + ρamb, where ρamb is based on the mean density during the quiet day before the storm. We show that this simple relation predicts all storm-induced mass density variations at CHAMP altitude fairly well especially if orbital averages are considered.

Hierarchical Bayesian Markov switching models with application to predicting spawning success of shovelnose sturgeon

Science.gov (United States)

Holan, S.H.; Davis, G.M.; Wildhaber, M.L.; DeLonay, A.J.; Papoulias, D.M.

2009-01-01

The timing of spawning in fish is tightly linked to environmental factors; however, these factors are not very well understood for many species. Specifically, little information is available to guide recruitment efforts for endangered species such as the sturgeon. Therefore, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the success of spawning of the shovelnose sturgeon which uses both biological and behavioural (longitudinal) data. In particular, we use data that were produced from a tracking study that was conducted in the Lower Missouri River. The data that were produced from this study consist of biological variables associated with readiness to spawn along with longitudinal behavioural data collected by using telemetry and archival data storage tags. These high frequency data are complex both biologically and in the underlying behavioural process. To accommodate such complexity we developed a hierarchical linear regression model that uses an eigenvalue predictor, derived from the transition probability matrix of a two-state Markov switching model with generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedastic dynamics. Finally, to minimize the computational burden that is associated with estimation of this model, a parallel computing approach is proposed. ?? Journal compilation 2009 Royal Statistical Society.

Biophysical modelling of intra-ring variations in tracheid features and wood density of Pinus pinaster trees exposed to seasonal droughts.

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Wilkinson, Sarah; Ogée, Jérôme; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Rayment, Mark; Wingate, Lisa

2015-03-01

Process-based models that link seasonally varying environmental signals to morphological features within tree rings are essential tools to predict tree growth response and commercially important wood quality traits under future climate scenarios. This study evaluated model portrayal of radial growth and wood anatomy observations within a mature maritime pine (Pinus pinaster (L.) Aït.) stand exposed to seasonal droughts. Intra-annual variations in tracheid anatomy and wood density were identified through image analysis and X-ray densitometry on stem cores covering the growth period 1999-2010. A cambial growth model was integrated with modelled plant water status and sugar availability from the soil-plant-atmosphere transfer model MuSICA to generate estimates of cell number, cell volume, cell mass and wood density on a weekly time step. The model successfully predicted inter-annual variations in cell number, ring width and maximum wood density. The model was also able to predict the occurrence of special anatomical features such as intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs) in growth rings. Since cell wall thickness remained surprisingly constant within and between growth rings, variations in wood density were primarily the result of variations in lumen diameter, both in the model and anatomical data. In the model, changes in plant water status were identified as the main driver of the IADFs through a direct effect on cell volume. The anatomy data also revealed that a trade-off existed between hydraulic safety and hydraulic efficiency. Although a simplified description of cambial physiology is presented, this integrated modelling approach shows potential value for identifying universal patterns of tree-ring growth and anatomical features over a broad climatic gradient. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Student characteristics and behaviors at age 12 predict occupational success 40 years later over and above childhood IQ and parental socioeconomic status.

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Spengler, Marion; Brunner, Martin; Damian, Rodica I; Lüdtke, Oliver; Martin, Romain; Roberts, Brent W

2015-09-01

Drawing on a 2-wave longitudinal sample spanning 40 years from childhood (age 12) to middle adulthood (age 52), the present study was designed to examine how student characteristics and behaviors in late childhood (assessed in Wave 1 in 1968) predict career success in adulthood (assessed in Wave 2 in 2008). We examined the influence of parental socioeconomic status (SES), childhood intelligence, and student characteristics and behaviors (inattentiveness, school entitlement, responsible student, sense of inferiority, impatience, pessimism, rule breaking and defiance of parental authority, and teacher-rated studiousness) on 2 important real-life outcomes (i.e., occupational success and income). The longitudinal sample consisted of N = 745 persons who participated in 1968 (M = 11.9 years, SD = 0.6; 49.9% female) and 2008 (M = 51.8 years, SD = 0.6; 53.3% female). Regression analyses and path analyses were conducted to evaluate the direct and indirect effects (via education) of the predictors on career success. The results revealed direct and indirect influences of student characteristics (responsible student, rule breaking and defiance of parental authority, and teacher-rated studiousness) across the life span on career success after adjusting for differences in parental SES and IQ at age 12. rd (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Why Does Working Memory Capacity Predict Variation in Reading Comprehension? On the Influence of Mind Wandering and Executive Attention

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McVay, Jennifer C.; Kane, Michael J.

2012-01-01

Some people are better readers than others, and this variation in comprehension ability is predicted by measures of working memory capacity (WMC). The primary goal of this study was to investigate the mediating role of mind wandering experiences in the association between WMC and normal individual differences in reading comprehension, as predicted by the executive-attention theory of WMC (e.g., Engle & Kane, 2004). We used a latent-variable, structural-equation-model approach, testing skilled adult readers on three WMC span tasks, seven varied reading comprehension tasks, and three attention-control tasks. Mind wandering was assessed using experimenter-scheduled thought probes during four different tasks (two reading, two attention-control tasks). The results support the executive-attention theory of WMC. Mind wandering across the four tasks loaded onto a single latent factor, reflecting a stable individual difference. Most importantly, mind wandering was a significant mediator in the relationship between WMC and reading comprehension, suggesting that the WMC-comprehension correlation is driven, in part, by attention control over intruding thoughts. We discuss implications for theories of WMC, attention control, and reading comprehension. PMID:21875246

Why does working memory capacity predict variation in reading comprehension? On the influence of mind wandering and executive attention.

Science.gov (United States)

McVay, Jennifer C; Kane, Michael J

2012-05-01

Some people are better readers than others, and this variation in comprehension ability is predicted by measures of working memory capacity (WMC). The primary goal of this study was to investigate the mediating role of mind-wandering experiences in the association between WMC and normal individual differences in reading comprehension, as predicted by the executive-attention theory of WMC (e.g., Engle & Kane, 2004). We used a latent-variable, structural-equation-model approach, testing skilled adult readers on 3 WMC span tasks, 7 varied reading-comprehension tasks, and 3 attention-control tasks. Mind wandering was assessed using experimenter-scheduled thought probes during 4 different tasks (2 reading, 2 attention-control). The results support the executive-attention theory of WMC. Mind wandering across the 4 tasks loaded onto a single latent factor, reflecting a stable individual difference. Most important, mind wandering was a significant mediator in the relationship between WMC and reading comprehension, suggesting that the WMC-comprehension correlation is driven, in part, by attention control over intruding thoughts. We discuss implications for theories of WMC, attention control, and reading comprehension.

Predicting facial characteristics from complex polygenic variations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fagertun, Jens; Wolffhechel, Karin Marie Brandt; Pers, Tune

2015-01-01

Research into the importance of the human genome in the context of facial appearance is receiving increasing attention and has led to the detection of several Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) of importance. In this work we attempt a holistic approach predicting facial characteristics from...... genetic principal components across a population of 1,266 individuals. For this we perform a genome-wide association analysis to select a large number of SNPs linked to specific facial traits, recode these to genetic principal components and then use these principal components as predictors for facial...

Individual variation in social aggression and the probability of inheritance: theory and a field test.

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Cant, Michael A; Llop, Justine B; Field, Jeremy

2006-06-01

Recent theory suggests that much of the wide variation in individual behavior that exists within cooperative animal societies can be explained by variation in the future direct component of fitness, or the probability of inheritance. Here we develop two models to explore the effect of variation in future fitness on social aggression. The models predict that rates of aggression will be highest toward the front of the queue to inherit and will be higher in larger, more productive groups. A third prediction is that, in seasonal animals, aggression will increase as the time available to inherit the breeding position runs out. We tested these predictions using a model social species, the paper wasp Polistes dominulus. We found that rates of both aggressive "displays" (aimed at individuals of lower rank) and aggressive "tests" (aimed at individuals of higher rank) decreased down the hierarchy, as predicted by our models. The only other significant factor affecting aggression rates was date, with more aggression observed later in the season, also as predicted. Variation in future fitness due to inheritance rank is the hidden factor accounting for much of the variation in aggressiveness among apparently equivalent individuals in this species.

What shall I do now? State-dependent variations of life-history traits with aging in Wandering Albatrosses.

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Pardo, Deborah; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2014-02-01

Allocation decisions depend on an organism's condition which can change with age. Two opposite changes in life-history traits are predicted in the presence of senescence: either an increase in breeding performance in late age associated with terminal investment or a decrease due to either life-history trade-offs between current breeding and future survival or decreased efficiency at old age. Age variation in several life-history traits has been detected in a number of species, and demographic performances of individuals in a given year are influenced by their reproductive state the previous year. Few studies have, however, examined state-dependent variation in life-history traits with aging, and they focused mainly on a dichotomy of successful versus failed breeding and non-breeding birds. Using a 50-year dataset on the long-lived quasi-biennial breeding wandering albatross, we investigated variations in life-history traits with aging according to a gradient of states corresponding to potential costs of reproduction the previous year (in ascending order): non-breeding birds staying at sea or present at breeding grounds, breeding birds that failed early, late or were successful. We used multistate models to study survival and decompose reproduction into four components (probabilities of return, breeding, hatching, and fledging), while accounting for imperfect detection. Our results suggest the possible existence of two strategies in the population: strict biennial breeders that exhibited almost no reproductive senescence and quasi-biennial breeders that showed an increased breeding frequency with a strong and moderate senescence on hatching and fledging probabilities, respectively. The patterns observed on survival were contrary to our predictions, suggesting an influence of individual quality rather than trade-offs between reproduction and survival at late ages. This work represents a step further into understanding the evolutionary ecology of senescence and its

Evaluating the importance of mean stone density and skin-to-stone distance in predicting successful shock wave lithotripsy of renal and ureteric calculi.

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Wiesenthal, Joshua D; Ghiculete, Daniela; D'A Honey, R John; Pace, Kenneth T

2010-08-01

Shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) is considered the first line treatment for the majority of patients with renal and ureteric calculi, with success rates from contemporary series varying from 60 to 90%. Success is dependent on many patient and stone-related factors. We conducted a retrospective analysis of mean stone CT density (MSD) and skin-to-stone distance (SSD) to determine their influence on the success of SWL of renal and ureteric calculi. Data from all patients treated at the St. Michael's Hospital Lithotripsy Unit from May 2004 to June 2009 were reviewed. Analysis was restricted to those patients with a pre-treatment non-contrast CT scan conducted at our center demonstrating a solitary renal or ureteric calculus 900 HU (OR = 0.49, CI: 0.32-0.75) and SSD >110 mm (OR = 0.49, CI: 0.31-0.78) were both significant predictors of outcome. We have identified in a large series of renal and ureteric calculi that both MSD and SSD can reliably predict SWL outcomes. This data can be used in combination with other patient and stone-related factors to facilitate optimal treatment-based decisions and provide patients with more accurate single-treatment success rates for SWL.

Inhibitory Control and Hedonic Response towards Food Interactively Predict Success in a Weight Loss Programme for Adults with Obesity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timo Brockmeyer

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Objective: Low inhibitory control and strong hedonic response towards food are considered to contribute to overeating and obesity. Based on previous research, the present study aimed at examining the potentially crucial interplay between these two factors in terms of long-term weight loss in people with obesity. Methods: BMI, inhibitory control towards food, and food liking were assessed in obese adults prior to a weight reduction programme (OPTIFAST® 52. After the weight reduction phase (week 13 and the weight loss maintenance phase (week 52, participants' BMI was re-assessed. Results: Baseline BMI, inhibitory control and food liking alone did not predict weight loss. As hypothesised, however, inhibitory control and food liking interactively predicted weight loss from baseline to week 13 and to week 52 (albeit the latter effect was less robust. Participants with low inhibitory control and marked food liking were less successful in weight reduction. Conclusion: These findings underscore the relevance of the interplay between cognitive control and food reward valuation in the maintenance of obesity.

Organizational Climate for Successful Aging

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Zacher, Hannes; Yang, Jie

2016-01-01

Research on successful aging at work has neglected contextual resources such as organizational climate, which refers to employees’ shared perceptions of their work environment. We introduce the construct of organizational climate for successful aging (OCSA) and examine it as a buffer of the negative relationship between employee age and focus on opportunities (i.e., beliefs about future goals and possibilities at work). Moreover, we expected that focus on opportunities, in turn, positively predicts job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and motivation to continue working after official retirement age. Data came from 649 employees working in 120 companies (Mage = 44 years, SD = 13). We controlled for organizational tenure, psychological climate for successful aging (i.e., individuals’ perceptions), and psychological and organizational age discrimination climate. Results of multilevel analyses supported our hypotheses. Overall, our findings suggest that OCSA is an important contextual resource for successful aging at work. PMID:27458405

Organizational Climate for Successful Aging.

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Zacher, Hannes; Yang, Jie

2016-01-01

Research on successful aging at work has neglected contextual resources such as organizational climate, which refers to employees' shared perceptions of their work environment. We introduce the construct of organizational climate for successful aging (OCSA) and examine it as a buffer of the negative relationship between employee age and focus on opportunities (i.e., beliefs about future goals and possibilities at work). Moreover, we expected that focus on opportunities, in turn, positively predicts job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and motivation to continue working after official retirement age. Data came from 649 employees working in 120 companies (M age = 44 years, SD = 13). We controlled for organizational tenure, psychological climate for successful aging (i.e., individuals' perceptions), and psychological and organizational age discrimination climate. Results of multilevel analyses supported our hypotheses. Overall, our findings suggest that OCSA is an important contextual resource for successful aging at work.

Managing Cultural Variation in Software Process Improvement

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Müller, Sune Dueholm; Kræmmergaard, Pernille; Mathiassen, Lars

The scale and complexity of change in software process improvement (SPI) are considerable and managerial attention to organizational culture during SPI can therefore potentially contribute to successful outcomes. However, we know little about the impact of variations in organizational subculture...... CMMI level 2 as planned, ASY struggled to implement even modest improvements. To explain these differences, we analyzed the underlying organizational culture within ISY and ASY using two different methods for subculture assessment. The study demonstrates how variations in culture across software...

Leveraging Non-Cognitive Testing to Predict Success at USMC Scout Sniper Course

Science.gov (United States)

2017-03-01

whether aptitude requirements translate to job performance. Mayberry (1990) determines the ASVAB a valid predictor of success for infantrymen...Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE March 2017 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED...success at scout sniper school. We use data from 2012 through 2016 containing more than 700 Marines from every infantry military occupational specialty

Widespread range expansions shape latitudinal variation in insect thermal limits

Science.gov (United States)

Lancaster, Lesley T.

2016-06-01

Current anthropogenic impacts, including habitat modification and climate change, may contribute to a sixth mass extinction. To mitigate these impacts and slow further losses of biodiversity, we need to understand which species are most at risk and identify the factors contributing to current and future declines. Such information is often obtained through large-scale, comparative and biogeographic analysis of lineages or traits that are potentially sensitive to ongoing anthropogenic change--for instance to predict which regions are most susceptible to climate change-induced biodiversity loss. However, for this approach to be generally successful, the underlying causes of identified geographical trends need to be carefully considered. Here, I augment and reanalyse a global data set of insect thermal tolerances, evaluating the contribution of recent and contemporary range expansions to latitudinal variation in thermal niche breadth. Previous indications that high-latitude ectotherms exhibit broad thermal niches and high warming tolerances held only for species undergoing range expansions or invasions. In contrast, species with stable or declining geographic ranges exhibit latitudinally decreasing absolute thermal tolerances and no latitudinal variation in tolerance breadths. Thus, non-range-expanding species, particularly insular or endemic species, which are often of highest conservation priority, are unlikely to tolerate future climatic warming at high latitudes.

The Role of Metacognitive Reading Strategies, Metacognitive Study and Learning Strategies, and Behavioral Study and Learning Strategies in Predicting Academic Success in Students With and Without a History of Reading Difficulties.

Science.gov (United States)

Chevalier, Thérèse M; Parrila, Rauno; Ritchie, Krista C; Deacon, S Hélène

2017-01-01

We examined the self-reported use of reading, study, and learning strategies in university students with a history of reading difficulties (HRD; n = 77) and with no history of reading difficulties (NRD; n = 295). We examined both between-groups differences in strategy use and strategy use as a predictive measure of academic success. Participants completed online questionnaires regarding reading history and strategy use. GPA and frequency of use of academic support services were also obtained for all students. University students with HRD reported a different profile of strategy use than their NRD peers, and self-reported strategy use was differentially predictive of GPA for students with HRD and NRD. For students with HRD, the use of metacognitive reading strategies and the use of study aids predicted academic success. Implications for university student services providers are discussed. © Hammill Institute on Disabilities 2015.

Hardy's argument and successive spin-s measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahanj, Ali

2010-01-01

We consider a hidden-variable theoretic description of successive measurements of noncommuting spin observables on an input spin-s state. In this scenario, the hidden-variable theory leads to a Hardy-type argument that quantum predictions violate it. We show that the maximum probability of success of Hardy's argument in quantum theory is ((1/2)) 4s , which is more than in the spatial case.

Factors for successful improvement of Swedish healthcare

OpenAIRE

Olsson, Jesper

2005-01-01

The Swedish OCM, developed by an Integrative Group Process, was found to be a valid model able to distinguish successful from unsuccessful organizations in terms of improvement. A majority of healthcare organizations applied the Internal Collaborative strategy which lacks the patient centered task alignment characterizing those organizations predicted to be successful by their relatively superior Swedish OCM score. Managers tend to overestimate the prospects of organizationa...

Logistic regression analysis to predict Medical Licensing Examination of Thailand (MLET) Step1 success or failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Wanvarie, Samkaew; Sathapatayavongs, Boonmee

2007-09-01

The aim of this paper was to assess factors that predict students' performance in the Medical Licensing Examination of Thailand (MLET) Step1 examination. The hypothesis was that demographic factors and academic records would predict the students' performance in the Step1 Licensing Examination. A logistic regression analysis of demographic factors (age, sex and residence) and academic records [high school grade point average (GPA), National University Entrance Examination Score and GPAs of the pre-clinical years] with the MLET Step1 outcome was accomplished using the data of 117 third-year Ramathibodi medical students. Twenty-three (19.7%) students failed the MLET Step1 examination. Stepwise logistic regression analysis showed that the significant predictors of MLET Step1 success/failure were residence background and GPAs of the second and third preclinical years. For students whose sophomore and third-year GPAs increased by an average of 1 point, the odds of passing the MLET Step1 examination increased by a factor of 16.3 and 12.8 respectively. The minimum GPAs for students from urban and rural backgrounds to pass the examination were estimated from the equation (2.35 vs 2.65 from 4.00 scale). Students from rural backgrounds and/or low-grade point averages in their second and third preclinical years of medical school are at risk of failing the MLET Step1 examination. They should be given intensive tutorials during the second and third pre-clinical years.

Novelty-Sensitive Dopaminergic Neurons in the Human Substantia Nigra Predict Success of Declarative Memory Formation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamiński, Jan; Mamelak, Adam N; Birch, Kurtis; Mosher, Clayton P; Tagliati, Michele; Rutishauser, Ueli

2018-04-12

The encoding of information into long-term declarative memory is facilitated by dopamine. This process depends on hippocampal novelty signals, but it remains unknown how midbrain dopaminergic neurons are modulated by declarative-memory-based information. We recorded individual substantia nigra (SN) neurons and cortical field potentials in human patients performing a recognition memory task. We found that 25% of SN neurons were modulated by stimulus novelty. Extracellular waveform shape and anatomical location indicated that these memory-selective neurons were putatively dopaminergic. The responses of memory-selective neurons appeared 527 ms after stimulus onset, changed after a single trial, and were indicative of recognition accuracy. SN neurons phase locked to frontal cortical theta-frequency oscillations, and the extent of this coordination predicted successful memory formation. These data reveal that dopaminergic neurons in the human SN are modulated by memory signals and demonstrate a progression of information flow in the hippocampal-basal ganglia-frontal cortex loop for memory encoding. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Predicting the variation in Echinogammarus marinus at its southernmost limits under global warming scenarios: can the sex-ratio make a difference?

Science.gov (United States)

Guerra, Alexandra; Leite, Nuno; Marques, João Carlos; Ford, Alex T; Martins, Irene

2014-01-01

Understanding the environmental parameters that constrain the distribution of a species at its latitudinal extremes is critical for predicting how ecosystems react to climate change. Our first aim was to predict the variation in the amphipod populations of Echinogammarus marinus from the southernmost limit of its distribution under global warming scenarios. Our second aim was to test whether sex-ratio fluctuations - a mechanism frequently displayed by amphipods - respond to the variations in populations under altered climate conditions. To achieve these aims, scenarios were run with a validated model of E. marinus populations. Simulations were divided into: phase I - simulation of the effect of climate change on amphipod populations, and phase II - simulation of the effect of climate change on populations with male and female proportions. In both phases, temperature (T), salinity (S) and temperature and salinity (T-S) were tested. Results showed that E. marinus populations are highly sensitive to increases in temperature (>2 °C), which has adverse effects on amphipod recruitment and growth. Results from the climate change scenarios coupled with the sex-ratio fluctuations depended largely on the degree of female bias within population. Temperature increase of 2 °C had less impact on female-biased populations, particularly when conjugated with increases in salinity. Male-biased populations were highly sensitive to any variation in temperature and/or salinity; these populations exhibited a long-term decline in density. Simulations in which temperature increased more than 4 °C led to a continuous decline in the E. marinus population. According to this work, E. marinus populations at their southernmost limit are vulnerable to global warming. We anticipate that in Europe, temperature increases of 2 °C will incite a withdrawal of the population of 5°N from the amphipod species located at southernmost geographical borders. This effect is discussed in relation to the

Predictive Variables of Success for Latino Enrollment in Higher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez, Jafeth E.; Usinger, Janet; Thornton, Bill W.

2015-01-01

It is necessary to better understand the unique variables that serve as predictors of Latino students' postsecondary enrollment and success. Impacts of various variables were examined among 850 Latino and Caucasian students (76% and 24% of the sample, respectively). Gender, ethnicity, perceived affordability, high school grade point average, and…

Variational methods in molecular modeling

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

This book presents tutorial overviews for many applications of variational methods to molecular modeling. Topics discussed include the Gibbs-Bogoliubov-Feynman variational principle, square-gradient models, classical density functional theories, self-consistent-field theories, phase-field methods, Ginzburg-Landau and Helfrich-type phenomenological models, dynamical density functional theory, and variational Monte Carlo methods. Illustrative examples are given to facilitate understanding of the basic concepts and quantitative prediction of the properties and rich behavior of diverse many-body systems ranging from inhomogeneous fluids, electrolytes and ionic liquids in micropores, colloidal dispersions, liquid crystals, polymer blends, lipid membranes, microemulsions, magnetic materials and high-temperature superconductors. All chapters are written by leading experts in the field and illustrated with tutorial examples for their practical applications to specific subjects. With emphasis placed on physical unders...

Clinical indicators associated with successful tracheostomy cuff deflation.

Science.gov (United States)

Pryor, Lee N; Ward, Elizabeth C; Cornwell, Petrea L; O'Connor, Stephanie N; Chapman, Marianne J

2016-08-01

Tracheostomy cuff deflation is a necessary stage of the decannulation pathway, yet the optimal clinical indicators to guide successful cuff deflation are unknown. The study aims were to identify (1) the proportion of patients tolerating continuous cuff deflation at first attempt; (2) the clinical observations associated with cuff deflation success or failure, including volume of above cuff secretions and (3) the predictive capacity of these observations within a heterogeneous cohort. A retrospective review of 113 acutely tracheostomised patients with a subglottic suction tube in situ was conducted. Ninety-five percent of patients (n=107) achieved continuous cuff deflation on the first attempt. The clinical observations recorded as present in the 24h preceding cuff deflation included: (1) medical stability, (2) respiratory stability, (3) fraction of inspired oxygen ≤0.4, (4) tracheal suction ≤1-2 hourly, (5) sputum thin and easy to suction, (6) sputum clear or white, (7) ≥moderate cough strength, (8) above cuff secretions ≤1ml per hour and (9) alertness≥eyes open to voice. Using the presence of all 9 indicators as predictors of successful cuff deflation tolerance, specificity and positive predictive value were 100%, although sensitivity was only 77% and negative predictive value 19%. Refinement to a set of 3 clinically driven criteria (medical and respiratory stability, above cuff secretions ≤1ml/h) provided high specificity (100%), sensitivity (95%), positive predictive value (100%) and an improved negative predictive value (55%). Key criteria can help guide clinical decision-making on patient readiness for cuff deflation. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Signaling Network Assessment of Mutations and Copy Number Variations Predict Breast Cancer Subtype-Specific Drug Targets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naif Zaman

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Individual cancer cells carry a bewildering number of distinct genomic alterations (e.g., copy number variations and mutations, making it a challenge to uncover genomic-driven mechanisms governing tumorigenesis. Here, we performed exome sequencing on several breast cancer cell lines that represent two subtypes, luminal and basal. We integrated these sequencing data and functional RNAi screening data (for the identification of genes that are essential for cell proliferation and survival onto a human signaling network. Two subtype-specific networks that potentially represent core-signaling mechanisms underlying tumorigenesis were identified. Within both networks, we found that genes were differentially affected in different cell lines; i.e., in some cell lines a gene was identified through RNAi screening, whereas in others it was genomically altered. Interestingly, we found that highly connected network genes could be used to correctly classify breast tumors into subtypes on the basis of genomic alterations. Further, the networks effectively predicted subtype-specific drug targets, which were experimentally validated.

Variation across mitochondrial gene trees provides evidence for systematic error: How much gene tree variation is biological?

Science.gov (United States)

Richards, Emilie J; Brown, Jeremy M; Barley, Anthony J; Chong, Rebecca A; Thomson, Robert C

2018-02-19

The use of large genomic datasets in phylogenetics has highlighted extensive topological variation across genes. Much of this discordance is assumed to result from biological processes. However, variation among gene trees can also be a consequence of systematic error driven by poor model fit, and the relative importance of biological versus methodological factors in explaining gene tree variation is a major unresolved question. Using mitochondrial genomes to control for biological causes of gene tree variation, we estimate the extent of gene tree discordance driven by systematic error and employ posterior prediction to highlight the role of model fit in producing this discordance. We find that the amount of discordance among mitochondrial gene trees is similar to the amount of discordance found in other studies that assume only biological causes of variation. This similarity suggests that the role of systematic error in generating gene tree variation is underappreciated and critical evaluation of fit between assumed models and the data used for inference is important for the resolution of unresolved phylogenetic questions.

Community patterns of tropical tree phenology derived from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle images: intra- and interspecific variation, association with species plant traits, and response to interannual climate variation

Science.gov (United States)

Bohlman, Stephanie; Rifai, Sami; Park, John; Dandois, Jonathan; Muller-Landau, Helene

2017-04-01

Phenology is a key life history trait of plant species and critical driver of ecosystem processes. There is strong evidence that phenology is shifting in temperate ecosystems in response to climate change, but tropical forest phenology remains poorly quantified and understood. A key challenge is that tropical forests contain hundreds of plant species with a wide variety of phenological patterns, which makes it difficult to collect sufficient ground-based field data to characterize individual tropical tree species phenologies. Satellite-based observations, an important source of phenology data in northern latitudes, are hindered by frequent cloud cover in the tropics. To quantify phenology over a large number of individuals and species, we collected bi-weekly images from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the well-studied 50-ha forest inventory plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The objective of this study is to quantify inter- and intra-specific responses of tropical tree leaf phenology to environmental variation over large spatial scales and identify key environmental variables and physiological mechanisms underpinning phenological variation. Between October 2014 and December 2015 and again in May 2015, we collected a total of 35 sets of UAV images, each with continuous coverage of the 50-ha plot, where every tree ≥ 1 cm DBH is mapped. UAV imagery was corrected for exposure, orthorectified, and then processed to extract spectral, texture, and image information for individual tree crowns, which was then used as inputs for a machine learning algorithm that successfully predicted the percentages of leaf, branch, and flower cover for each tree crown (r2=0.76 between observed and predicted percent branch cover for individual tree crowns). We then quantified cumulative annual deciduousness for each crown by fitting a non-parametric curve of flexible shape to its predicted percent branch time series and calculated the area under the curve. We obtained the species

Learning-based prediction of gestational age from ultrasound images of the fetal brain.

Science.gov (United States)

Namburete, Ana I L; Stebbing, Richard V; Kemp, Bryn; Yaqub, Mohammad; Papageorghiou, Aris T; Alison Noble, J

2015-04-01

We propose an automated framework for predicting gestational age (GA) and neurodevelopmental maturation of a fetus based on 3D ultrasound (US) brain image appearance. Our method capitalizes on age-related sonographic image patterns in conjunction with clinical measurements to develop, for the first time, a predictive age model which improves on the GA-prediction potential of US images. The framework benefits from a manifold surface representation of the fetal head which delineates the inner skull boundary and serves as a common coordinate system based on cranial position. This allows for fast and efficient sampling of anatomically-corresponding brain regions to achieve like-for-like structural comparison of different developmental stages. We develop bespoke features which capture neurosonographic patterns in 3D images, and using a regression forest classifier, we characterize structural brain development both spatially and temporally to capture the natural variation existing in a healthy population (N=447) over an age range of active brain maturation (18-34weeks). On a routine clinical dataset (N=187) our age prediction results strongly correlate with true GA (r=0.98,accurate within±6.10days), confirming the link between maturational progression and neurosonographic activity observable across gestation. Our model also outperforms current clinical methods by ±4.57 days in the third trimester-a period complicated by biological variations in the fetal population. Through feature selection, the model successfully identified the most age-discriminating anatomies over this age range as being the Sylvian fissure, cingulate, and callosal sulci. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The process of natural succession in urban areas

Science.gov (United States)

Wayne C. Zipperer

2011-01-01

Succession has been a fundamental concept in ecology. Its classical definition is the orderly change in vegetation at a site that is predictable and directional towards a climax state or end point (Clements 1916). A general assumption of succession is that early seres are governed by allogenic processes, environmental processes external to the site, and early seres...

Developing and validating a model to predict the success of an IHCS implementation: the Readiness for Implementation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gustafson, David H; Hawkins, Robert P; Brennan, Patricia F; Dinauer, Susan; Johnson, Pauley R; Siegler, Tracy

2010-01-01

Objective To develop and validate the Readiness for Implementation Model (RIM). This model predicts a healthcare organization's potential for success in implementing an interactive health communication system (IHCS). The model consists of seven weighted factors, with each factor containing five to seven elements. Design Two decision-analytic approaches, self-explicated and conjoint analysis, were used to measure the weights of the RIM with a sample of 410 experts. The RIM model with weights was then validated in a prospective study of 25 IHCS implementation cases. Measurements Orthogonal main effects design was used to develop 700 conjoint-analysis profiles, which varied on seven factors. Each of the 410 experts rated the importance and desirability of the factors and their levels, as well as a set of 10 different profiles. For the prospective 25-case validation, three time-repeated measures of the RIM scores were collected for comparison with the implementation outcomes. Results Two of the seven factors, ‘organizational motivation’ and ‘meeting user needs,’ were found to be most important in predicting implementation readiness. No statistically significant difference was found in the predictive validity of the two approaches (self-explicated and conjoint analysis). The RIM was a better predictor for the 1-year implementation outcome than the half-year outcome. Limitations The expert sample, the order of the survey tasks, the additive model, and basing the RIM cut-off score on experience are possible limitations of the study. Conclusion The RIM needs to be empirically evaluated in institutions adopting IHCS and sustaining the system in the long term. PMID:20962135

Intraspecific variation in social organization by genetic variation, developmental plasticity, social flexibility or entirely extrinsic factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Schradin, Carsten

2013-05-19

Previously, it was widely believed that each species has a specific social organization, but we know now that many species show intraspecific variation in their social organization. Four different processes can lead to intraspecific variation in social organization: (i) genetic variation between individuals owing to local adaptation (between populations) or evolutionarily stable strategies within populations; (ii) developmental plasticity evolved in long-term (more than one generation) unpredictable and short-term (one generation) predictable environments, which is mediated by organizational physiological effects during early ontogeny; (iii) social flexibility evolved in highly unpredictable environments, which is mediated by activational physiological effects in adults; (iv) entirely extrinsic factors such as the death of a dominant breeder. Variation in social behaviour occurs between individuals in the case of genetic variation and developmental plasticity, but within individuals in the case of social flexibility. It is important to study intraspecific variation in social organization to understand the social systems of species because it reveals the mechanisms by which species can adapt to changing environments, offers a useful tool to study the ultimate and proximate causes of sociality, and is an interesting phenomenon by itself that needs scientific explanation.

An internally validated prognostic model for success in revision stapes surgery for otosclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wegner, Inge; Vincent, Robert; Derks, Laura S M; Rauh, Simone P; Heymans, Martijn W; Stegeman, Inge; Grolman, Wilko

2018-03-09

To develop a prediction model that can accurately predict the chance of success following revision stapes surgery in patients with recurrent or persistent otosclerosis at 2- to 6-months follow-up and to validate this model internally. A retrospective cohort study of prospectively gathered data in a tertiary referral center. The associations of 11 prognostic factors with treatment success were tested in 705 cases using multivariable logistic regression analysis with backward selection. Success was defined as a mean air-bone gap closure to 10 dB or less. The most relevant predictors were used to derive a clinical prediction rule to determine the probability of success. Internal validation by means of bootstrapping was performed. Model performance indices, including the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), and the explained variance were calculated. Success was achieved in 57.7% of cases at 2- to 6-months follow-up. Certain previous surgical techniques, primary causes of failure leading up to revision stapes surgery, and positions of the prosthesis placed during revision surgery were associated with higher success percentages. The clinical prediction rule performed moderately well in the original dataset (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .78; AUC = 0.73; explained variance = 22%), which slightly decreased following internal validation by means of bootstrapping (AUC = 0.69; explained variance = 13%). Our study established the importance of previous surgical technique, primary cause of failure, and type of the prosthesis placed during the revision surgery in predicting the probability of success following stapes surgery at 2- to 6-months follow-up. 2b. Laryngoscope, 2018. © 2018 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

[The Significance of Work Motivation for Rehabilitation Success].

Science.gov (United States)

Kessemeier, Franziska; Stöckler, Christiane; Petermann, Franz; Bassler, Markus; Pfeiffer, Wolfgang; Kobelt, Axel

2017-11-28

Aim of this study Apart from the reduction of symptoms and the restoration of working ability, return to work is a long-term goal of medical rehabilitation. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of work motivation on the outcome of rehabilitation. Methods The data basis consists of N=998 patients at the psychosomatic department of the Oberharz Rehabilitation Center as well as data from insurance accounts. Using multiple linear regression analysis the predictive power of work motivation on rehabilitation outcome as well as different facets of work motivation in their function as predictors are analyzed. Results Only minor statistical relations could be found between work motivation and rehabilitation success when also taking employment status of the previous year and subjective vocational disability into account. A small predictive power can be attributed to work motivation as a factor in rehabilitation success in the sense of a reduction of symptoms. Particular facets of work motivation are suitable to predict rehabilitation success. Patients with a work motivation risk profile differ from patients with a normal work motivation profile as regards their capacity to work in the year following rehabilitation treatment. Conclusion Work motivation represents a relevant construct in rehabilitation success but is strongly influenced by individual factors. During rehabilitation, individual problems which influence work motivation should be taken into account more strongly. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

2017-01-01

predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior...... and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented....

Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

Science.gov (United States)

Tinsley, Brian A.

1990-01-01

Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.

Genetic variations in multiple myeloma II

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vangsted, A.; Klausen, T.W.; Vogel, U.

2012-01-01

Association studies on genetic variation to treatment effect may serve as a predictive marker for effect of treatment and can also uncover biological pathways behind drug effect. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been studied in relation to high-dose treatment (HDT), thalidomide- and bo...

Gauging Variational Inference

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chertkov, Michael [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ahn, Sungsoo [Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Jinwoo [Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2017-05-25

Computing partition function is the most important statistical inference task arising in applications of Graphical Models (GM). Since it is computationally intractable, approximate methods have been used to resolve the issue in practice, where meanfield (MF) and belief propagation (BP) are arguably the most popular and successful approaches of a variational type. In this paper, we propose two new variational schemes, coined Gauged-MF (G-MF) and Gauged-BP (G-BP), improving MF and BP, respectively. Both provide lower bounds for the partition function by utilizing the so-called gauge transformation which modifies factors of GM while keeping the partition function invariant. Moreover, we prove that both G-MF and G-BP are exact for GMs with a single loop of a special structure, even though the bare MF and BP perform badly in this case. Our extensive experiments, on complete GMs of relatively small size and on large GM (up-to 300 variables) confirm that the newly proposed algorithms outperform and generalize MF and BP.

Flood Prediction using Rainfall – Runoff Spatial Variation: An ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... and especially those based on the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN), provide a ... in the flood forecasting accuracy in comparison to the use of simple prediction approaches, ...

An experimental test of fitness variation across a hydrologic gradient predicts willow and poplar species distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Xiaojing; Savage, Jessica A; Riggs, Charlotte E; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine

2017-05-01

Environmental filtering is an important community assembly process influencing species distributions. Contrasting species abundance patterns along environmental gradients are commonly used to provide evidence for environmental filtering. However, the same abundance patterns may result from alternative or concurrent assembly processes. Experimental tests are an important means to decipher whether species fitness varies with environment, in the absence of dispersal constraints and biotic interactions, and to draw conclusions about the importance of environmental filtering in community assembly. We performed an experimental test of environmental filtering in 14 closely related willow and poplar species (family Salicaceae) by transplanting cuttings of each species into 40 common gardens established along a natural hydrologic gradient in the field, where competition was minimized and herbivory was controlled. We analyzed species fitness responses to the hydrologic environment based on cumulative growth and survival over two years using aster fitness models. We also examined variation in nine drought and flooding tolerance traits expected to contribute to performance based on a priori understanding of plant function in relation to water availability and stress. We found substantial evidence that environmental filtering along the hydrologic gradient played a critical role in determining species distributions. Fitness variation of each species in the field experiment was used to model their water table depth optima. These optima predicted 68% of the variation in species realized hydrologic niches based on peak abundance in naturally assembled communities in the surrounding region. Multiple traits associated with water transport efficiency and water stress tolerance were correlated with species hydrologic niches, but they did not necessarily covary with each other. As a consequence, species occupying similar hydrologic niches had different combinations of trait values

An excitable cortex and memory model successfully predicts new pseudopod dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert M Cooper

Full Text Available Motile eukaryotic cells migrate with directional persistence by alternating left and right turns, even in the absence of external cues. For example, Dictyostelium discoideum cells crawl by extending distinct pseudopods in an alternating right-left pattern. The mechanisms underlying this zig-zag behavior, however, remain unknown. Here we propose a new Excitable Cortex and Memory (EC&M model for understanding the alternating, zig-zag extension of pseudopods. Incorporating elements of previous models, we consider the cell cortex as an excitable system and include global inhibition of new pseudopods while a pseudopod is active. With the novel hypothesis that pseudopod activity makes the local cortex temporarily more excitable--thus creating a memory of previous pseudopod locations--the model reproduces experimentally observed zig-zag behavior. Furthermore, the EC&M model makes four new predictions concerning pseudopod dynamics. To test these predictions we develop an algorithm that detects pseudopods via hierarchical clustering of individual membrane extensions. Data from cell-tracking experiments agrees with all four predictions of the model, revealing that pseudopod placement is a non-Markovian process affected by the dynamics of previous pseudopods. The model is also compatible with known limits of chemotactic sensitivity. In addition to providing a predictive approach to studying eukaryotic cell motion, the EC&M model provides a general framework for future models, and suggests directions for new research regarding the molecular mechanisms underlying directional persistence.

The GMAT as a Predictor of MBA Performance: Less Success than Meets the Eye

Science.gov (United States)

Kass, Darrin; Grandzol, Christian; Bommer, William

2012-01-01

Consistent with previous research, the authors found that the combined use of undergraduate grade point average and the Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT) verbal and quantitative sections successfully predicted performance in a master of business administration (MBA) program. However, these measures did not successfully predict the…

For patients with primary achalasia the clinical success of pneumatic balloon dilatation can be predicted from the residual fraction of radionuclide during esophageal transit scintigraphy.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeon, Han Ho; Youn, Young Hoon; Rhee, Kwangwon; Kim, Jie-Hyun; Park, Hyojin; Conklin, Jeffrey L

2014-02-01

Esophageal transit scintigraphy (ETS) and esophagography have long been used to evaluate patients with achalasia. The objectives of our study were to evaluate the efficacy of endoscopic pneumatic dilatation (EPD) as treatment for Koreans with achalasia and to determine which findings from ETS and esophagography predict successful treatment of achalasia. Patients with achalasia who were treated by EPD between April 2002 and January 2012 were recruited. We defined the success of EPD as 6 months or more of clinical remission without symptoms or a decrease in the Eckardt scores by at least two points and a total Eckardt score not exceeding 3. We reviewed the percentage of maximum scintigraphic activity retained in the esophagus at 30 s (R 30) and the post-PD rate of reduction of R 30 ((Pre R 30 - Post R 30)/Pre R 30 × 100) by ETS. Possible predictive factors determined by ETS and esophagography were analyzed. Our study included 53 eligible patients. The median symptom score (Eckardt score) was 5 (4-8). R 30 and T 1/2 were, respectively, 61.8 % and 38.5 min before EPD and 20 % and 4.19 min after EPD. Successful EPD was achieved for 40 of 53 (75.47 %) patients. Age (≥40, p = 0.027) and post-PD rate of reduction of R 30 (>20 %, p = 0.003) were best prognostic indicators of clinical success. There were no perforations related to EPD. Older age and a post-PD rate of reduction of R 30 were strongly associated with better outcomes. Examination with ETS before and after EPD can be used to objectively assess a patient's short-term response to EPD.

A convergent overlapping domain decomposition method for total variation minimization

KAUST Repository

Fornasier, Massimo

2010-06-22

In this paper we are concerned with the analysis of convergent sequential and parallel overlapping domain decomposition methods for the minimization of functionals formed by a discrepancy term with respect to the data and a total variation constraint. To our knowledge, this is the first successful attempt of addressing such a strategy for the nonlinear, nonadditive, and nonsmooth problem of total variation minimization. We provide several numerical experiments, showing the successful application of the algorithm for the restoration of 1D signals and 2D images in interpolation/inpainting problems, respectively, and in a compressed sensing problem, for recovering piecewise constant medical-type images from partial Fourier ensembles. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.

[Can Psychometric Tests Predict Success in the Selection Interview for Medical School? A Cross-Sectional Study at One German Medical School].

Science.gov (United States)

Kötter, T; Obst, K U; Brüheim, L; Eisemann, N; Voltmer, E; Katalinic, A

2017-07-01

Background The final exam grade is the main selection criterion for medical school application in Germany. For academic success, it seems to be a reliable predictor. Its use as the only selection criterion is, however, criticised. At some universities, personal interviews are part of the selection process. However, these are very time consuming and are of doubtful validity. The (additional) use of appropriate psychometric instruments could reduce the cost and increase the validity. This study investigates the extent to which psychometric instruments can predict the outcome of a personal selection interview. Methods This is a cross-sectional study on the correlation of the results of psychometric instruments with those of the personal selection interview as part of the application process. As the outcome, the score of the selection interview was used. The NEO - Five Factor Inventory, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the questionnaire to identify work-related behaviour and experience patterns (AVEM) were used as psychometric interviews. Results There was a statistically significant correlation with the results of the personal selection interview for the sum score of the depression scale from the HADS and the sum score for the dimension of life satisfaction of the AVEM. In addition, those participants who did not previously complete an application training achieved a better result in the selection interview. Conclusion The instruments used measure different aspects than the interviews and cannot replace them. It remains to be seen whether the selected parameters are able to predict academic success. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Asymptotic Behaviour of Total Generalised Variation

KAUST Repository

Papafitsoros, Konstantinos; Valkonen, Tuomo

2015-01-01