Increasing importance of precipitation variability on global livestock grazing lands

Science.gov (United States)

Sloat, Lindsey L.; Gerber, James S.; Samberg, Leah H.; Smith, William K.; Herrero, Mario; Ferreira, Laerte G.; Godde, Cécile M.; West, Paul C.

2018-03-01

Pastures and rangelands underpin global meat and milk production and are a critical resource for millions of people dependent on livestock for food security1,2. Forage growth, which is highly climate dependent3,4, is potentially vulnerable to climate change, although precisely where and to what extent remains relatively unexplored. In this study, we assess climate-based threats to global pastures, with a specific focus on changes in within- and between-year precipitation variability (precipitation concentration index (PCI) and coefficient of variation of precipitation (CVP), respectively). Relating global satellite measures of vegetation greenness (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) to key climatic factors reveals that CVP is a significant, yet often overlooked, constraint on vegetation productivity across global pastures. Using independent stocking data, we found that areas with high CVP support lower livestock densities than less-variable regions. Globally, pastures experience about a 25% greater year-to-year precipitation variation (CVP = 0.27) than the average global land surface area (0.21). Over the past century, CVP has generally increased across pasture areas, although both positive (49% of pasture area) and negative (31% of pasture area) trends exist. We identify regions in which livestock grazing is important for local food access and economies, and discuss the potential for pasture intensification in the context of long-term regional trends in precipitation variability.

Climate Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in the Source Region of Yangtze River

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Du, Y.; Berndtsson, R.; An, D.; Yuan, F.

2017-12-01

Variability of precipitation regime has significant influence on the environment sustainability in the source region of Yangtze River, especially when the vegetation degradation and biodiversity reduction have already occurred. Understanding the linkage between variability of local precipitation and global teleconnection patterns is essential for water resources management. Based on physical reasoning, indices of the climate drivers can provide a practical way of predicting precipitation. Due to high seasonal variability of precipitation, climate drivers of the seasonal precipitation also varies. However, few reports have gone through the teleconnections between large scale patterns with seasonal precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) assessment of temporal trend and spatial variability of precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River; (2) identification of climate indices with strong influence on seasonal precipitation anomalies; (3) prediction of seasonal precipitation based on revealed climate indices. Principal component analysis and Spearman rank correlation were used to detect significant relationships. A feed-forward artificial neural network(ANN) was developed to predict seasonal precipitation using significant correlated climate indices. Different influencing climate indices were revealed for precipitation in each season, with significant level and lag times. Significant influencing factors were selected to be the predictors for ANN model. With correlation coefficients between observed and simulated precipitation over 0.5, the results were eligible to predict the precipitation of spring, summer and winter using teleconnections, which can improve integrated water resources management in the source region of Yangtze River.

Cross-Regional Assessment Of Coupling And Variability In Precipitation-Runoff Relationships

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Carey, S. K.; Tetzlaff, D.; Soulsby, C.; Buttle, J. M.; Laudon, H.; McDonnell, J. J.; McGuire, K. J.; Seibert, J.; Shanley, J. B.

2011-12-01

The higher mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere are particularly sensitive to change due to the important role the zero-degree isotherm plays in the phase of precipitation and intermediate storage as snow. An international inter-catchment comparison program North-Watch seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical variability and response. The catchments are located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Mharcaidh, Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook and HJ Andrews) and Canada (Catamaran, Dorset and Wolf Creek). For this study, 8 catchments with 10 continuous years of daily precipitation and runoff data were selected to assess the seasonal coupling of rainfall and runoff and the memory effect of runoff events on the hydrograph at different time scales. To assess the coupling and synchroneity of precipitation, continuous wavelet transforms and wavelet coherence were used. Wavelet spectra identified the relative importance of both annual versus seasonal flows while wavelet coherence was applied to identify over different time scales along the 10-year window how well precipitation and runoff were coupled. For example, while on a given day, precipitation may be closely coupled to runoff, a wet year may not necessarily be a high runoff year in catchments with large storage. Assessing different averaging periods in the variation of daily flows highlights the importance of seasonality in runoff response and the relative influence of rain versus snowmelt on flow magnitude and variability. Wet catchments with limited seasonal precipitation variability (Strontian, Girnock) have precipitation signals more closely coupled with runoff, whereas dryer catchments dominated by snow (Wolf Creek, Krycklan) have strongly coupling only during freshet. Most catchments with highly seasonal precipitation show strong intermittent coupling during their wet season. At

Variability of Precipitation and Evapotranspiration across an Andean Paramo

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Jaimes, J. C.; Riveros-Iregui, D.; Avery, W. A.; Gaviria, S.; Peña-Quemba, C.; Herran, G.

2012-12-01

Paramos are alpine grasslands that occur mostly in the Andes Mountains of South America. Typically soils in the paramo have a volcanic origin, which leads to high permeability and high water yield and makes the paramo a reliable drinking water supply for many highland cities. Because hydrological measurements in these humid systems are rare, current understanding of the hydrologic behavior of paramos relies on modeling studies with little validation against ground observations. We present measurements of evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation (P) across Chingaza Paramo, near Bogotá, Colombia. This paramo supplies water for ~80% of Bogotá's population (a total of 8 million people). Meteorological variables such us air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and solar radiation were monitored using five weather stations located at various elevations from 3000m to 3600m. Our results show that ET varies from 500 to 700 mm y-1 as a function of elevation, whereas precipitation commonly exceeds ET, ranging between 1500 and 1800 mm y-1. These spatial differences between P and ET make water yield highly variable across this mountainous environment. Our results demonstrate that while paramos play an important role in the hydrologic cycle of tropical environments, understanding their hydrologic behavior requires characterization and monitoring of the pronounced spatial gradients of precipitation and evapotranspiration.

Precipitation variability inferred from the annual growth and isotopic composition of tropical trees

Science.gov (United States)

Ballantyne, A. P.; Baker, P. A.; Chambers, J. Q.; Villalba, R.

2005-12-01

Here we demonstrate that annual growth and isotopic ratios in tropical trees are responsive to seasonal and annual precipitation variability. We identify several regions of tropical South America characterized by significant relationships between oxygen isotopic ratios (δ 18O) in precipitation and precipitation amount (r = -0.82). Many of these regions are also sensitive to inter-annual variability in the South American Monsoon modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effectiveness of δ 18O and annual growth of tropical trees as a precipitation proxy is validated by high-resolution sampling of a Tachigali vermelho tree growing near Manaus, Brazil (3.1° S, 60.0° S). Growth in Tachigali spp. was highly correlated with both precipitation and cellulose δ 18O (r = 0.60) and precipitation amount was significantly correlated with δ 18O at a lag of approximately one month (r = 0.56). We also report a multi-proxy record spanning 180 years from Cedrela odorata growing in the Peruvian Amazon near Puerto Maldonado (12.6° S, 69.2° W) revealing a significant relationship between cellulose and monsoon precipitation over the region (r = -0.33). A 150-year record obtained from Polylepis tarapacana growing at Volcan Granada in Northern Argentina (22.0° S, 66.0° W) is also reported with a significant relationship between local monsoon precipitation and a regionally derived ring width index (r = 0.38). Although no significant relationship was revealed between cellulose δ 18O and precipitation in this taxa at this location, separate radii within the same tree revealed a significantly coherent δ 18O signal (r = 0.38). We compared our proxy chronologies with monsoon precipitation reanalysis data for tropical South America, which revealed key features of the South American Monsoon and their sensitivity to ENSO variability.

Modes of winter precipitation variability in the North Atlantic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zorita, E. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik; Saenz, J.; Fernandez, J.; Zubillaga, J. [Bilbao Univ. (Spain)

2001-07-01

The modes of variability of winter precipitation in the North Atlantic sector are identified by Empirical Orthogonal Functions Analysis in the NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis data sets. These modes are also present in a gridded precipitation data set over the Western Europe. The large-scale fields of atmospheric seasonal mean circulation, baroclinic activity, evaporation and humidity transport that are connected to the rainfall modes have been also analyzed in order to investigate the physical mechanisms that are causally linked to the rainfall modes. The results indicate that the leading rainfall mode is associated to the North Atlantic oscillation and represents a meridional redistribution of precipitation in the North Atlantic through displacements of the storm tracks. The second mode is related to evaporation anomalies in the Eastern Atlantic that precipitate almost entirely in the Western Atlantic. The third mode seems to be associated to meridional transport of water vapor from the Tropical Atlantic. (orig.)

Trends in precipitation variability: Prague (the Czech Republic)

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Bodri, L.; Čermák, Vladimír; Krešl, Milan

2005-01-01

Roč. 72, č. 1-2 (2005), s. 151-170 ISSN 0165-0009 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012005; GA ČR GA205/03/0998 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : precipitation variability * Prague observatory * North Atlantic Oscillation Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.479, year: 2005

Spatiotemporal Variability and Change of the South China Spring Precipitation during 1961–2012

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Hong-Lan Liu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We analyze precipitation data from 47 meteorological stations spanning between 1961 and 2012 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to understand spatiotemporal variability and change of spring precipitation of South China and their relations to atmospheric circulations. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis and rotated EOF (REOF are used to reveal dominant spatial structures of precipitation anomaly and Mann-Kendall testing method to determine the temporal locations of abrupt changes during the analyzed time span. We find that the first spatial mode of the spring precipitation of the South China has a domain uniform structure; the second is dominated by a spatial dipole; and the third contains six variability centers. 1980s was the decade of the largest amount of precipitation while 1960s the decade of the smallest amount of precipitation. The spring precipitation also appeared to have a decreasing trend since 2000. We also find that spring precipitation of the South China has experienced a few abrupt changes: sudden increment at 1964, sudden decrement at 2002, and sudden increment at 1995. In addition to these abrupt changes, the precipitation could also be characterized by variability of multiple temporal scales, with dominant periodicities of 4 years, 8 years, and 14 years. The South China spring precipitation is also closely tied to the atmospheric circulations: when Aleutian Low strengthens, westerly weakens, and the center of the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts southeastward in the early spring; and the South China precipitation tends to be abundant (positive anomaly. In contrast, when Ural ridge strengthens, the southern branch of the East Asian trough weakens and the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts northwestward in the early spring, the South China precipitation tends to be reduced (negative anomaly.

Ranch profitability given increased precipitation variability and flexible stocking

Science.gov (United States)

Forage and cattle performance relationships with spring precipitation, combined with cattle market price variability, were incorporated into a ranch level model to determine if addition of a yearling enterprise to the base cow-calf herd would improve profitability with increasing (25% and 50% greate...

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

Science.gov (United States)

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf; Quinn, Niall; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey; Freer, Jim; Bates, Paul

2018-05-01

The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

How well do the GCMs/RCMs capture the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwestern United States?

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Jiang, Peng; Gautam, Mahesh R.; Zhu, Jianting; Yu, Zhongbo

2013-02-01

SummaryMulti-scale temporal variability of precipitation has an established relationship with floods and droughts. In this paper, we present the diagnostics on the ability of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Bias Corrected and Downscaled (BCSD) World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) projections and 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to represent multi-scale temporal variability determined from the observed station data. Four regions (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Tucson, and Cimarron) in the Southwest United States are selected as they represent four different precipitation regions classified by clustering method. We investigate how storm properties and seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal precipitation variabilities differed between GCMs/RCMs and observed records in these regions. We find that current GCMs/RCMs tend to simulate longer storm duration and lower storm intensity compared to those from observed records. Most GCMs/RCMs fail to produce the high-intensity summer storms caused by local convective heat transport associated with the summer monsoon. Both inter-annual and decadal bands are present in the GCM/RCM-simulated precipitation time series; however, these do not line up to the patterns of large-scale ocean oscillations such as El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results show that the studied GCMs/RCMs can capture long-term monthly mean as the examined data is bias-corrected and downscaled, but fail to simulate the multi-scale precipitation variability including flood generating extreme events, which suggests their inadequacy for studies on floods and droughts that are strongly associated with multi-scale temporal precipitation variability.

Reconstructing Hydrologic Variability in Southwestern North America Using Speleothem Proxies and Precipitation Isotopes from California

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe-Glynn, Staryl

Precipitation in southwestern North America has exhibited significant natural variability over the past few thousand years. This variability has been attributed to sea surface temperature regimes in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and to the attendant shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. In particular, decadal variability in the North Pacific has influenced precipitation in this region during the twentieth century, but links to earlier droughts and pluvials are unclear. Here I assess these links using delta18 O measurements from a speleothem from southern California that spans AD 854-- 2007. I show that variations in the oxygen isotopes of the speleothem correlate to sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Extension region of the North Pacific, which affect the atmospheric trajectory and isotopic composition of moisture reaching the study site. Interpreting our speleothem data as a record of sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Extension, I find a strong 22-year periodicity, suggesting a persistent solar influence on North Pacific decadal variability. A comparison with tree-ring records of precipitation during the past millennium shows that some droughts occurred during periods of warmth in the Kuroshio Extension, similar to the instrumental record. However, other droughts did not and instead were likely influenced by other factors. The carbon isotope record indicates drier conditions are associated with higher delta13C values and may be a suitable proxy for reconstructing past drought variability. More research is needed to determine the controls on trace element concentrations. Finally, I find a significant increase in sea surface temperature variability over the past 150 years, which may reflect an influence of greenhouse gas concentrations on variability in the North Pacific. While drought is a common feature of climate in this region, most climate models also project extreme precipitation events to increase in frequency and severity because the

Climatology of extreme daily precipitation in Colorado and its diverse spatial and seasonal variability

Science.gov (United States)

Mahoney, Kelly M.; Ralph, F. Martin; Walter, Klaus; Doesken, Nolan; Dettinger, Michael; Gottas, Daniel; Coleman, Timothy; White, Allen

2015-01-01

The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day−1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day−1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.

Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Lei [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhang, Yaocun [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Zhao, Chun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Huang, Anning [School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; Xiao, Chuliang [Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MI USA

2015-11-09

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation, the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.

African aerosol and large-scale precipitation variability over West Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang Jingfeng; Zhang Chidong; Prospero, Joseph M

2009-01-01

We investigated the large-scale connection between African aerosol and precipitation in the West African Monsoon (WAM) region using 8-year (2000-2007) monthly and daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol products (aerosol optical depth, fine mode fraction) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation and rain type. These high-quality data further confirmed our previous results that the large-scale link between aerosol and precipitation in this region undergoes distinct seasonal and spatial variability. Previously detected suppression of precipitation during months of high aerosol concentration occurs in both convective and stratiform rain, but not systematically in shallow rain. This suggests the suppression of deep convection due to the aerosol. Based on the seasonal cycle of dust and smoke and their geographical distribution, our data suggest that both dust (coarse mode aerosol) and smoke (fine mode aerosol) contribute to the precipitation suppression. However, the dust effect is evident over the Gulf of Guinea while the smoke effect is evident over both land and ocean. A back trajectory analysis further demonstrates that the precipitation reduction is statistically linked to the upwind aerosol concentration. This study suggests that African aerosol outbreaks in the WAM region can influence precipitation in the local monsoon system which has direct societal impact on the local community. It calls for more systematic investigations to determine the modulating mechanisms using both observational and modeling approaches.

Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. M. Philandras

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010 and rain days (1965–2010 from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5° gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period and the period 2071–2100 (future climate were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI. The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.

The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level, appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These

Variability in precipitation in a watershed in the altiplano, Peru and modes of variation

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Mazzarino, M.; Brown, C. M.

2012-12-01

This research examines system linkages between climate, water availability, pasture availability, camelids (llamas and alpacas) and indigenous herders in an Andean watershed in southern Peru. In this region, extreme meteorological events such as drought and flood, occur often and have the potential to negatively impact herding livelihoods. Predictability in the system is paramount to reducing risks associated with these events. In the altiplano, a large portion of variability in precipitation has been attributed to the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In light of climate change and observations by herders, this research returns to the question of teleconnections in the altiplano. We use December through March precipitation totals obtained from eight meteorological stations for 43 years (1964-2006) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic to characterize the hydroclimatology in the watershed and determine modes of variability. Following principal components analysis, prevailing periodicities in regional precipitation were determined using wavelet analysis and spatial correlation and regression analysis were used to determine the relationship between SST anomalies (SSTA's) and precipitation events in the watershed. Results suggest a non-linear and non-stationary mode of variability. We draw three conclusions from the results: 1) Positive precipitation extremes are dominated by an ENSO signal in the Nino 2 region; 2) Post 1987 there is a weak relationship, if any, between anomalously dry years in the precipitation record and SSTA's in the equatorial Pacific; 3) There is a stronger relationship (inverse) between precipitation in the region and SSTA's in the tropical Atlantic than previously believed.

Spatial Downscaling of TRMM Precipitation Using Geostatistics and Fine Scale Environmental Variables

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No-Wook Park

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A geostatistical downscaling scheme is presented and can generate fine scale precipitation information from coarse scale Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM data by incorporating auxiliary fine scale environmental variables. Within the geostatistical framework, the TRMM precipitation data are first decomposed into trend and residual components. Quantitative relationships between coarse scale TRMM data and environmental variables are then estimated via regression analysis and used to derive trend components at a fine scale. Next, the residual components, which are the differences between the trend components and the original TRMM data, are then downscaled at a target fine scale via area-to-point kriging. The trend and residual components are finally added to generate fine scale precipitation estimates. Stochastic simulation is also applied to the residual components in order to generate multiple alternative realizations and to compute uncertainty measures. From an experiment using a digital elevation model (DEM and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, the geostatistical downscaling scheme generated the downscaling results that reflected detailed characteristics with better predictive performance, when compared with downscaling without the environmental variables. Multiple realizations and uncertainty measures from simulation also provided useful information for interpretations and further environmental modeling.

Relationship between the precipitation variability in Montenegro and the Mediterranean oscillation

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Burić Dragan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the influence of atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean region on the precipitation in Montenegro. Nine precipitation parameters have been used in the analysis and the relationship has been investigated by the Mediterranean and West Mediterranean Oscillation change index (MO and WeMO. According to a 60 - year observed period (1951-2010, the research results show that nothing characteristic happens with seasonal and annual precipitation sums because the trend is mainly insignificant. However, precipitation extremes are getting more extreme, which corresponds with a general idea of global warming. Negative consequences of daily intensity increase and frequency of precipitation days above fixed and percentile thresholds have been recorded recently in the form of torrents, floods, intensive erosive processes, etc., but it should be pointed out that human factor is partly a cause of such events. The estimate of the influence of teleconnection patterns primarily related to the Mediterranean Basin has shown that their variability affects the observed precipitation parameters on the territory of Montenegro regarding both seasonal and annual sums and frequency and intensity of extreme events shown by climate indices.

Precipitation isoscapes for New Zealand: enhanced temporal detail using precipitation-weighted daily climatology.

Science.gov (United States)

Baisden, W Troy; Keller, Elizabeth D; Van Hale, Robert; Frew, Russell D; Wassenaar, Leonard I

2016-01-01

Predictive understanding of precipitation δ(2)H and δ(18)O in New Zealand faces unique challenges, including high spatial variability in precipitation amounts, alternation between subtropical and sub-Antarctic precipitation sources, and a compressed latitudinal range of 34 to 47 °S. To map the precipitation isotope ratios across New Zealand, three years of integrated monthly precipitation samples were acquired from >50 stations. Conventional mean-annual precipitation δ(2)H and δ(18)O maps were produced by regressions using geographic and annual climate variables. Incomplete data and short-term variation in climate and precipitation sources limited the utility of this approach. We overcome these difficulties by calculating precipitation-weighted monthly climate parameters using national 5-km-gridded daily climate data. This data plus geographic variables were regressed to predict δ(2)H, δ(18)O, and d-excess at all sites. The procedure yields statistically-valid predictions of the isotope composition of precipitation (long-term average root mean square error (RMSE) for δ(18)O = 0.6 ‰; δ(2)H = 5.5 ‰); and monthly RMSE δ(18)O = 1.9 ‰, δ(2)H = 16 ‰. This approach has substantial benefits for studies that require the isotope composition of precipitation during specific time intervals, and may be further improved by comparison to daily and event-based precipitation samples as well as the use of back-trajectory calculations.

Modelling the Spatial Isotope Variability of Precipitation in Syria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kattan, Z.; Kattaa, B. [Department of Geology, Atomic Energy Commission of Syria (AECS), Damascus (Syrian Arab Republic)

2013-07-15

Attempts were made to model the spatial variability of environmental isotope ({sup 18}O, {sup 2}H and {sup 3}H) compositions of precipitation in syria. Rainfall samples periodically collected on a monthly basis from 16 different stations were used for processing and demonstrating the spatial distributions of these isotopes, together with those of deuterium excess (d) values. Mathematically, the modelling process was based on applying simple polynomial models that take into consideration the effects of major geographic factors (Lon.E., Lat.N., and altitude). The modelling results of spatial distribution of stable isotopes ({sup 18}O and {sup 2}H) were generally good, as shown from the high correlation coefficients (R{sup 2} = 0.7-0.8), calculated between the observed and predicted values. In the case of deuterium excess and tritium distributions, the results were most likely approximates (R{sup 2} = 0.5-0.6). Improving the simulation of spatial isotope variability probably requires the incorporation of other local meteorological factors, such as relative air humidity, precipitation amount and vapour pressure, which are supposed to play an important role in such an arid country. (author)

Response of South American Ecosystems to Precipitation Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Knox, R. G.; Kim, Y.; Longo, M.; Medvigy, D.; Wang, J.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Bras, R. L.

2009-12-01

The Ecosystem Demography Model 2 is a dynamic ecosystem model and land surface energy balance model. ED2 discretizes landscapes of particular terrain and meteorology into fractional areas of unique disturbance history. Each fraction, defined by a shared vertical soil column and canopy air space, contains a stratum of plant groups unique in functional type, size and number density. The result is a vertically distributed representation of energy transfer and plant dynamics (mortality, productivity, recruitment, disturbance, resource competition, etc) that successfully approximates the behaviour of individual-based vegetation models. In previous exercises simulating Amazonian land surface dynamics with ED 2, it was observed that when using grid averaged precipitation as an external forcing the resulting water balance typically over-estimated leaf interception and leaf evaporation while under estimating through-fall and transpiration. To investigate this result, two scenario were conducted in which land surface biophysics and ecosystem demography over the Northern portion of South America are simulated over ~200 years: (1) ED2 is forced with grid averaged values taken from the ERA40 reanalysis meteorological dataset; (2) ED2 is forced with ERA40 reanalysis, but with its precipitation re-sampled to reflect statistical qualities of point precipitation found at rain gauge stations in the region. The findings in this study suggest that the equilibrium moisture states and vegetation demography are co-dependent and show sensitivity to temporal variability in precipitation. These sensitivities will need to be accounted for in future projections of coupled climate-ecosystem changes in South America.

Validation of EURO-CORDEX regional climate models in reproducing the variability of precipitation extremes in Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Busuioc, Aristita

2016-04-01

EURO-CORDEX is the European branch of the international CORDEX initiative that aims to provide improved regional climate change projections for Europe. The main objective of this paper is to document the performance of the individual models in reproducing the variability of precipitation extremes in Romania. Here three EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) ensemble (scenario RCP4.5) are analysed and inter-compared: DMI-HIRHAM5, KNMI-RACMO2.2 and MPI-REMO. Compared to previous studies, when the RCM validation regarding the Romanian climate has mainly been made on mean state and at station scale, a more quantitative approach of precipitation extremes is proposed. In this respect, to have a more reliable comparison with observation, a high resolution daily precipitation gridded data set was used as observational reference (CLIMHYDEX project). The comparison between the RCM outputs and observed grid point values has been made by calculating three extremes precipitation indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI), for the 1976-2005 period: R10MM, annual count of days when precipitation ≥10mm; RX5DAY, annual maximum 5-day precipitation and R95P%, precipitation fraction of annual total precipitation due to daily precipitation > 95th percentile. The RCMs capability to reproduce the mean state for these variables, as well as the main modes of their spatial variability (given by the first three EOF patterns), are analysed. The investigation confirms the ability of RCMs to simulate the main features of the precipitation extreme variability over Romania, but some deficiencies in reproducing of their regional characteristics were found (for example, overestimation of the mea state, especially over the extra Carpathian regions). This work has been realised within the research project "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania" (CLIMHYDEX), code PN II-ID-2011-2-0073, financed by the Romanian

Seasonal precipitation extreme indices in mainland Portugal: trends and variability in the period 1941-2007

Science.gov (United States)

Santo, Fátima E.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; de Lima, M. Isabel P.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

Changes in the precipitation regimes are expected to be accompanied by variations in the occurrence of extreme events, which in turn could be related to low frequency variability. The impact on the society and environment requires that the regional specificities are understood. For mainland Portugal, this work reports the results of the analysis of trends in selected precipitation indices calculated from daily precipitation data from 57 meteorological stations, recorded in the period 1941-2007; additionally we have also investigated the correlations between these indices and several modes of low frequency variability over the area. We focus on exploring regional differences and seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events. The precipitation indices were assessed at the seasonal scale and calculated at both the station and regional scales. Results sometimes highlight marked changes in seasonal precipitation and show that: i) trends in spring and autumn have opposite signals: statistically significant drying trends in the spring are accompanied by a reduction in precipitation extremes; in autumn, wetting trends are detected for all precipitation indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5% level; ii) there seems to be a tendency for a reduction in the duration of the rainy season; iii) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the mode of variability that has the highest influence on precipitation extremes over mainland Portugal, particularly in the winter and autumn, and is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in all seasons. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) through project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Trends and variability of daily precipitation extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Science.gov (United States)

Trends and variability of extreme precipitation events are important for water-related disaster prevention and mitigation as well as water resource management. Based on daily precipitation dataset from 143 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), a suite of precipitation indices rec...

Predicting abundance and variability of ice nucleating particles in precipitation at the high-altitude observatory Jungfraujoch

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Stopelli

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Nucleation of ice affects the properties of clouds and the formation of precipitation. Quantitative data on how ice nucleating particles (INPs determine the distribution, occurrence and intensity of precipitation are still scarce. INPs active at −8 °C (INPs−8 were observed for 2 years in precipitation samples at the High-Altitude Research Station Jungfraujoch (Switzerland at 3580 m a.s.l. Several environmental parameters were scanned for their capability to predict the observed abundance and variability of INPs−8. Those singularly presenting the best correlations with observed number of INPs−8 (residual fraction of water vapour, wind speed, air temperature, number of particles with diameter larger than 0.5 µm, season, and source region of particles were implemented as potential predictor variables in statistical multiple linear regression models. These models were calibrated with 84 precipitation samples collected during the first year of observations; their predictive power was successively validated on the set of 15 precipitation samples collected during the second year. The model performing best in calibration and validation explains more than 75 % of the whole variability of INPs−8 in precipitation and indicates that a high abundance of INPs−8 is to be expected whenever high wind speed coincides with air masses having experienced little or no precipitation prior to sampling. Such conditions occur during frontal passages, often accompanied by precipitation. Therefore, the circumstances when INPs−8 could be sufficiently abundant to initiate the ice phase in clouds may frequently coincide with meteorological conditions favourable to the onset of precipitation events.

Variability in temperature, precipitation and river discharge in the Baltic States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kriauciuniene, J.; Meilutyte-Barauskiene, D.; Sarauskiene, D. (Lithuanian Energy Inst., Kaunas (Lithuania), Lab. of Hydrology); Reihan, A. (Tallinn Univ. of Technology (Estonia), Inst. of Environmental Engineering); Koltsova, T.; Lizuma, L. (Latvian Hydrometeorological Agency, Riga (LV))

2012-07-01

The climate change impact on water resources is observed in all the Baltic States. These processes became more evident in the last decades. Although the territory of the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) is not large (175000 km2), the climatic differences are quite considerable. We performed a regionalization of the territory of the Baltic States depending on the conditions of river runoff formation which can be defined according to percentages of the river feeding sources (precipitation, snowmelt, groundwater). Long-term series of temperature (40 stations), precipitation (59 stations) and river discharge (77 stations) were used to compose ten regional series. This paper addresses: (1) variability in long-term regional series of temperature, precipitation and river discharge over a long period (1922-2007); (2) changes in regional series, comparing the periods 1991-2007 and 1931-1960 with the reference period (1961-1990), and (3) the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on regional river discharge. (orig.)

Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

KAUST Repository

Gao, Tao

2017-07-19

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are well understood to be major drivers for the variability of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC, and assess the time-varying influences of the climate drivers using Bayesian dynamic linear regression and their combined nonlinear effects through fitting generalized additive models. Results suggest that the central-east and south China is dominated by less frequent but more intense precipitation. Extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, coupled with a significant decline of dry spells, indicating an increasing chance of occurrence of flood-induced disasters in the MRC during 1960–2014. Majority of the regional indices display some abrupt shifts during the 1990s. The influences of climate variables on monsoon extremes exhibit distinct interannual or interdecadal variations. IOD, ENSO and AMO have strong impacts on monsoon and extreme precipitation, especially during the 1990s, which is generally consistent with the abrupt shifts in precipitation regimes around this period. Moreover, ENSO mainly affects moderate rainfalls and dry spells, while IOD has a more significant impact on precipitation extremes. These findings could be helpful for improving the forecasting of monsoon extremes in China and the evaluations of climate models.

Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

KAUST Repository

Gao, Tao; Wang, Huixia Judy; Zhou, Tianjun

2017-01-01

of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC

Self-organizing map network-based precipitation regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau and regional precipitation variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Nini; Yin, Jianchuan

2017-12-01

A precipitation-based regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was investigated for regional precipitation trend analysis and frequency analysis using data from 1113 grid points covering the period 1900-2014. The results utilizing self-organizing map (SOM) network suggest that four clusters of precipitation coherent zones can be identified, including the southwestern edge, the southern edge, the southeastern region, and the north central region. Regionalization results of the SOM network satisfactorily represent the influences of the atmospheric circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon, the south Asian summer monsoon, and the mid-latitude westerlies. Regionalization results also well display the direct impacts of physical geographical features of the TP such as orography, topography, and land-sea distribution. Regional-scale annual precipitation trend as well as regional differences of annual and seasonal total precipitation were investigated by precipitation index such as precipitation concentration index (PCI) and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI). Results demonstrate significant negative long-term linear trends in southeastern TP and the north central part of the TP, indicating arid and semi-arid regions in the TP are getting drier. The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method shows an evolution of the main cycle with 4 and 12 months for all the representative grids of four sub-regions. The cross-wavelet analysis suggests that predominant and effective period of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on monthly precipitation is around ˜12 months, except for the representative grid of the northwestern region.

Effect of land model ensemble versus coupled model ensemble on the simulation of precipitation climatology and variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Jiangfeng; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Chen, Haishan

2017-10-01

Through a series of model simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to three different land surface models, this study investigates the impacts of land model ensembles and coupled model ensemble on precipitation simulation. It is found that coupling an ensemble of land models to an atmospheric model has a very minor impact on the improvement of precipitation climatology and variability, but a simple ensemble average of the precipitation from three individually coupled land-atmosphere models produces better results, especially for precipitation variability. The generally weak impact of land processes on precipitation should be the main reason that the land model ensembles do not improve precipitation simulation. However, if there are big biases in the land surface model or land surface data set, correcting them could improve the simulated climate, especially for well-constrained regional climate simulations.

Providing a non-deterministic representation of spatial variability of precipitation in the Everest region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Eeckman

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper provides a new representation of the effect of altitude on precipitation that represents spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the Everest region. Exclusive observation data are used to infer a piecewise linear function for the relation between altitude and precipitation and significant seasonal variations are highlighted. An original ensemble approach is applied to provide non-deterministic water budgets for middle and high-mountain catchments. Physical processes at the soil–atmosphere interface are represented through the Interactions Soil–Biosphere–Atmosphere (ISBA surface scheme. Uncertainties associated with the model parametrization are limited by the integration of in situ measurements of soils and vegetation properties. Uncertainties associated with the representation of the orographic effect are shown to account for up to 16 % of annual total precipitation. Annual evapotranspiration is shown to represent 26 % ± 1 % of annual total precipitation for the mid-altitude catchment and 34% ± 3 % for the high-altitude catchment. Snowfall contribution is shown to be neglectable for the mid-altitude catchment, and it represents up to 44 % ± 8 % of total precipitation for the high-altitude catchment. These simulations on the local scale enhance current knowledge of the spatial variability in hydroclimatic processes in high- and mid-altitude mountain environments.

Variability of Evaporation and Precipitation over the Ocean from Satellite Data

Science.gov (United States)

Malinin, V. N.; Gordeeva, S. M.

2017-12-01

HOAPS-3 and PMWC satellite archives for 1988-2008 are used to estimate moisture-exchange components between the ocean and atmosphere (evaporation, precipitation, and the difference between them or effective evaporation). Moisture-exchange components for the entire World Ocean and for the North Atlantic Ocean within 30°-60° N are calculated. A strong overestimation of the global values of effective evaporation by HOAPS data (mainly caused by a decrease in precipitation) is shown. In the interannual variability of effective evaporation, there is clearly an overestimated positive trend, which contradicts the real increase in the Global Sea Level. Large systematic errors in moisture-exchange components are revealed for the North Atlantic water area. According to HOAPS data, there is a significant underestimation of evaporation and effective evaporation. According to PMWC data, the amount of precipitation is significantly overestimated and evaporation is underestimated. As a consequence, effective evaporation becomes negative, which is impossible. Low accuracy in the estimation of moisture-exchange components and the need to improve old estimates and develop new evaporation and precipitation databases based on satellite data are noted.

Water vapour source impacts on oxygen isotope variability in tropical precipitation during Heinrich events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. C. Lewis

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Water isotope records such as speleothems provide extensive evidence of past tropical hydrological changes. During Heinrich events, isotopic changes in monsoon regions have been interpreted as implying a widespread drying through the Northern Hemisphere tropics and an anti-phased precipitation response in the south. Here, we examine the sources of this variability using a water isotope-enabled general circulation model, Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. We incorporate a new suite of vapour source distribution tracers to help constrain the impact of precipitation source region changes on the isotopic composition of precipitation and to identify nonlocal amount effects. We simulate a collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation with a large freshwater input to the region as an idealised analogue to iceberg discharge during Heinrich events. An increase in monsoon intensity, defined by vertical wind shear, is modelled over the South American domain, with small decreases simulated over Asia. Simulated isotopic anomalies agree well with proxy climate records, with lighter isotopic values simulated over South America and enriched values across East Asia. For this particular abrupt climate event, we identify which climatic change is most likely linked to water isotope change – changes in local precipitation amount, monsoon intensity, water vapour source distributions or precipitation seasonality. We categorise individual sites according to the climate variability that water isotope changes are most closely associated with, and find that the dominant isotopic controls are not consistent across the tropics – simple local explanations, in particular, fall short of explaining water isotope variability at all sites. Instead, the best interpretations appear to be site specific and often regional in scale.

Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000–2100

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neukom, Raphael; Salzmann, Nadine; Huggel, Christian; Rohrer, Mario; Calanca, Pierluigi; Acuña, Delia; Christie, Duncan A; Morales, Mariano S

2015-01-01

Projected future trends in water availability are associated with large uncertainties in many regions of the globe. In mountain areas with complex topography, climate models have often limited capabilities to adequately simulate the precipitation variability on small spatial scales. Also, their validation is hampered by typically very low station density. In the Central Andes of South America, a semi-arid high-mountain region with strong seasonality, zonal wind in the upper troposphere is a good proxy for interannual precipitation variability. Here, we combine instrumental measurements, reanalysis and paleoclimate data, and a 57-member ensemble of CMIP5 model simulations to assess changes in Central Andes precipitation over the period AD 1000–2100. This new database allows us to put future projections of precipitation into a previously missing multi-centennial and pre-industrial context. Our results confirm the relationship between regional summer precipitation and 200 hPa zonal wind in the Central Andes, with stronger Westerly winds leading to decreased precipitation. The period of instrumental coverage (1965–2010) is slightly dryer compared to pre-industrial times as represented by control simulations, simulations from the past Millennium, ice core data from Quelccaya ice cap and a tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction. The model ensemble identifies a clear reduction in precipitation already in the early 21st century: the 10 year running mean model uncertainty range (ensemble 16–84% spread) is continuously above the pre-industrial mean after AD 2023 (AD 2028) until the end of the 21st century in the RCP2.6 (RCP8.5) emission scenario. Average precipitation over AD 2071–2100 is outside the range of natural pre-industrial variability in 47 of the 57 model simulations for both emission scenarios. The ensemble median fraction of dry years (defined by the 5th percentile in pre-industrial conditions) is projected to increase by a factor of 4 until 2071�

Changes in precipitation-streamflow transformation around the world: interdecadal variability and trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Saft, M.; Peel, M. C.; Andreassian, V.; Parajka, J.; Coxon, G.; Freer, J. E.; Woods, R. A.

2017-12-01

Accurate prediction of hydrologic response to potentially changing climatic forcing is a key current challenge in hydrology. Recent studies exploring decadal to multidecadal climate drying in the African Sahel and south-eastern and south-western Australia demonstrated that long dry periods also had an indirect cumulative impact on streamflow via altered catchment biophysical properties. As a result, hydrologic response to persisting change in climatic conditions, i.e. precipitation, cannot be confidently inferred from the hydrologic response to short-term interannual climate fluctuations of similar magnitude. This study aims to characterise interdecadal changes in precipitation-runoff conversion processes globally. The analysis is based on long continuous records from near-natural baseline catchments in North America, Europe, and Australia. We used several complimentary metrics characterising precipitation-runoff relationship to assess how partitioning changed over recent decades. First, we explore the hypothesis that during particularly dry or wet decades the precipitation elasticity of streamflow increases over what can be expected from inter-annual variability. We found this hypothesis holds for both wet and dry periods in some regions, but not everywhere. Interestingly, trend-like behaviour in the precipitation-runoff partitioning, unrelated to precipitation changes, offset the impact of persisting precipitation change in some regions. Therefore, in the second part of this study we explored longer-term trends in precipitation-runoff partitioning, and related them to climate and streamflow changes. We found significant changes in precipitation-runoff relationship around the world, which implies that runoff response to a given precipitation can vary over decades even in near-natural catchments. When significant changes occur, typically less runoff is generated for a given precipitation over time - even when precipitation is increasing. We discuss the consistency

Can the variability in precipitation simulations across GCMs be reduced through sensible bias correction?

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Ha; Mehrotra, Rajeshwar; Sharma, Ashish

2017-11-01

This work investigates the performance of four bias correction alternatives for representing persistence characteristics of precipitation across 37 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 data archive. The first three correction approaches are the Simple Monthly Bias Correction (SMBC), Equidistance Quantile Mapping (EQM), and Nested Bias Correction (NBC), all of which operate in the time domain, with a focus on representing distributional and moment attributes in the observed precipitation record. The fourth approach corrects for the biases in high- and low-frequency variability or persistence of the GCM time series in the frequency domain and is named as Frequency-based Bias Correction (FBC). The Climatic Research Unit (CRU) gridded precipitation data covering the global land surface is used as a reference dataset. The assessment focusses on current and future means, variability, and drought-related characteristics at different temporal and spatial scales. For the current climate, all bias correction approaches perform reasonably well at the global scale by reproducing the observed precipitation statistics. For the future climate, focus is drawn on the agreement of the attributes across the GCMs considered. The inter-model difference/spread of each attribute across the GCMs is used as a measure of this agreement. Our results indicate that out of the four bias correction approaches used, FBC provides the lowest inter-model spreads, specifically for persistence attributes, over most regions/ parts over the global land surface. This has significant implications for most hydrological studies where the effect of low-frequency variability is of considerable importance.

Precipitation and Carbon-Water Coupling Jointly Control the Interannual Variability of Global Land Gross Primary Production

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Guanter, Luis; Zhou, Sha; Ciais, Philippe; Joiner, Joanna; Sitch, Stephen; Wu, Xiaocui; Nabel, Julian; Dong, Jinwei;

STAMMEX high resolution gridded daily precipitation dataset over Germany: a new potential for regional precipitation climate research

Science.gov (United States)

Zolina, Olga; Simmer, Clemens; Kapala, Alice; Mächel, Hermann; Gulev, Sergey; Groisman, Pavel

2014-05-01

We present new high resolution precipitation daily grids developed at Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn and German Weather Service (DWD) under the STAMMEX project (Spatial and Temporal Scales and Mechanisms of Extreme Precipitation Events over Central Europe). Daily precipitation grids have been developed from the daily-observing precipitation network of DWD, which runs one of the World's densest rain gauge networks comprising more than 7500 stations. Several quality-controlled daily gridded products with homogenized sampling were developed covering the periods 1931-onwards (with 0.5 degree resolution), 1951-onwards (0.25 degree and 0.5 degree), and 1971-2000 (0.1 degree). Different methods were tested to select the best gridding methodology that minimizes errors of integral grid estimates over hilly terrain. Besides daily precipitation values with uncertainty estimates (which include standard estimates of the kriging uncertainty as well as error estimates derived by a bootstrapping algorithm), the STAMMEX data sets include a variety of statistics that characterize temporal and spatial dynamics of the precipitation distribution (quantiles, extremes, wet/dry spells, etc.). Comparisons with existing continental-scale daily precipitation grids (e.g., CRU, ECA E-OBS, GCOS) which include considerably less observations compared to those used in STAMMEX, demonstrate the added value of high-resolution grids for extreme rainfall analyses. These data exhibit spatial variability pattern and trends in precipitation extremes, which are missed or incorrectly reproduced over Central Europe from coarser resolution grids based on sparser networks. The STAMMEX dataset can be used for high-quality climate diagnostics of precipitation variability, as a reference for reanalyses and remotely-sensed precipitation products (including the upcoming Global Precipitation Mission products), and for input into regional climate and operational weather forecast models. We will present

Next-Generation Satellite Precipitation Products for Understanding Global and Regional Water Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Arthur Y.

2011-01-01

A major challenge in understanding the space-time variability of continental water fluxes is the lack of accurate precipitation estimates over complex terrains. While satellite precipitation observations can be used to complement ground-based data to obtain improved estimates, space-based and ground-based estimates come with their own sets of uncertainties, which must be understood and characterized. Quantitative estimation of uncertainties in these products also provides a necessary foundation for merging satellite and ground-based precipitation measurements within a rigorous statistical framework. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is an international satellite mission that will provide next-generation global precipitation data products for research and applications. It consists of a constellation of microwave sensors provided by NASA, JAXA, CNES, ISRO, EUMETSAT, DOD, NOAA, NPP, and JPSS. At the heart of the mission is the GPM Core Observatory provided by NASA and JAXA to be launched in 2013. The GPM Core, which will carry the first space-borne dual-frequency radar and a state-of-the-art multi-frequency radiometer, is designed to set new reference standards for precipitation measurements from space, which can then be used to unify and refine precipitation retrievals from all constellation sensors. The next-generation constellation-based satellite precipitation estimates will be characterized by intercalibrated radiometric measurements and physical-based retrievals using a common observation-derived hydrometeor database. For pre-launch algorithm development and post-launch product evaluation, NASA supports an extensive ground validation (GV) program in cooperation with domestic and international partners to improve (1) physics of remote-sensing algorithms through a series of focused field campaigns, (2) characterization of uncertainties in satellite and ground-based precipitation products over selected GV testbeds, and (3) modeling of atmospheric processes and

Study on variability of temperature and precipitation conditions in the South Eastern Bulgaria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koleva-Lizama, Ivanka; Lizama Rivas, Bernardo

2004-01-01

Freshwater resources are an essential component of the earth's hydrosphere and an indispensable part of all terrestrial ecosystems. The freshwater environment is characterized by the hydrological cycle. Global climate change and pollution could also have an impact on freshwater resources and their availability. There is now sufficient evidence, accepted by internationally respected scientists, that human activity is having an effect on the climate of the planet. The effects are mostly the result of greenhouse gas emissions, and are in addition to naturally occurring climate change. The impacts of climate change on water resources are displayed in every sector of water system. The temperature and precipitation are the most important factors, which affect on water resources. On the basis of meteorological data for more than 45 years from several gauging stations is made an analysis on the peculiarities of the climatic conditions in the southeastern Bulgaria. In order to trace the variability of historical precipitation and temperature series the analysis of trend and deviations from climate mean of recommended by WMO 'climate normal' period 1961-1990 was used. Precipitation over the southeastern Bulgaria has a significant variability over wide range of temporal and spatial scales. The annual precipitation data were examined for evidence of a secular trend by calculation of a linear best fit for the 1952 to 2000. The tendency of rainfall decrease was determined. The drought period in the studied region is noticeable during the summer. It should be concluded that temperature increase and precipitation decrease conduct to drought in the region and it may have more severe impacts on agriculture, water supply and society.(Author)

Compound extremes of summer temperature and precipitation leading to intensified departures from natural variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahony, C. R.; Cannon, A. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change can drive local climates outside the range of their historical year-to-year variability, straining the adaptive capacity of ecological and human communities. We demonstrate that interactions between climate variables can produce larger and earlier departures from natural variability than is detectable in individual variables. For example, summer temperature (Tx) and precipitation (Pr) are negatively correlated in most terrestrial regions, such that interannual variability lies along an axis from warm-and-dry to cool-and-wet conditions. A climate change trend perpendicular to this axis, towards warmer-wetter conditions, can depart more quickly from the range of natural variability than a warmer-drier trend. This multivariate "departure intensification" effect is evident in all six CMIP5 models that we examined: 23% (9-34%) of the land area of each model exhibits a pronounced increase in 2σ extremesin the Tx-Pr regime relative to Tx or Pr alone. Observational data suggest that Tx-Pr correlations are sufficient to produce departure intensification in distinct regions on all continents. Departures from the historical Tx-Pr regime may produce ecological disruptions, such as in plant-pathogen interactions and human diseases, that could offset the drought mitigation benefits of increased precipitation. Our study alerts researchers and adaptation practitioners to the presence of multivariate climate change signals and compound extremes that are not detectable in individual climate variables.

Variability and predictability of decadal mean temperature and precipitation over China in the CCSM4 last millennium simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Ying, Kairan; Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Zheng, Xiaogu; Lou, Jiale; Zhao, Tianbao

2018-02-01

The modes of variability that arise from the slow-decadal (potentially predictable) and intra-decadal (unpredictable) components of decadal mean temperature and precipitation over China are examined, in a 1000 year (850-1850 AD) experiment using the CCSM4 model. Solar variations, volcanic aerosols, orbital forcing, land use, and greenhouse gas concentrations provide the main forcing and boundary conditions. The analysis is done using a decadal variance decomposition method that identifies sources of potential decadal predictability and uncertainty. The average potential decadal predictabilities (ratio of slow-to-total decadal variance) are 0.62 and 0.37 for the temperature and rainfall over China, respectively, indicating that the (multi-)decadal variations of temperature are dominated by slow-decadal variability, while precipitation is dominated by unpredictable decadal noise. Possible sources of decadal predictability for the two leading predictable modes of temperature are the external radiative forcing, and the combined effects of slow-decadal variability of the Arctic oscillation (AO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), respectively. Combined AO and PDO slow-decadal variability is associated also with the leading predictable mode of precipitation. External radiative forcing as well as the slow-decadal variability of PDO are associated with the second predictable rainfall mode; the slow-decadal variability of Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) is associated with the third predictable precipitation mode. The dominant unpredictable decadal modes are associated with intra-decadal/inter-annual phenomena. In particular, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the intra-decadal variability of the AMO, PDO and AO are the most important sources of prediction uncertainty.

Variability modes of precipitation along a Central Mediterranean area and their relations with ENSO, NAO, and other climatic patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Kalimeris, Anastasios; Ranieri, Ezio; Founda, Dimitra; Norrant, Caroline

2017-12-01

This study analyses a century-long set of precipitation time series in the Central Mediterranean (encompassing the Greek Ionian and the Italian Puglia regions) and investigates the statistically significant modes of the interannual precipitation variability using efficient methods of spectral decomposition. The statistical relations and the possible physical couplings between the detected modes and the global or hemispheric patterns of climatic variability (the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO, the East Atlantic or EA, the Scandinavian or SCAND, and others) were examined in the time-frequency domain and low-order synchronization events were sought. Significant modes of precipitation variability were detected in the Taranto Gulf and the southern part of the Greek Ionian region at the sub-decadal scales (mostly driven by the SCAND pattern) and particularly at the decadal and quasi-decadal scales, where strong relations found with the ENSO activity (under complex implications of EA and NAO) prior to the 1930s or after the early-1970s. The precipitation variations in the Adriatic stations of Puglia are dominated by significant bi-decadal modes which found to be coherent with the ENSO activity and also weakly related with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature intrinsic variability. Additionally, important discontinuities characterize the evolution of precipitation in certain stations of the Taranto Gulf and the Greek Ionian region during the early-1960s and particularly during the early-1970s, followed by significant reductions in the mean annual precipitation. These discontinuities seem to be associated with regional effects of NAO and SCAND, probably combined with the impact of the 1970s climatic shift in the Pacific and the ENSO variability.

Regional precipitation variability in East Asia related to climate and environmental factors during 1979-2012

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Yinyin; Gao, Tao; Gao, Huiwang; Yao, Xiaohong; Xie, Lian

2014-01-01

This paper studies the inter-annual precipitation variations in different regions of East Asia from oceans to interior areas in China during 1979 – 2012. The results computed by Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) demonstrate that the annual precipitation changes are mainly related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, East Asian summer monsoon and aerosols. We also found that the increased Sea surface temperature (SST) could explain the precipitation changes over the Northwest Pacific in the dry season (Oct. – May) and the East China Sea and the South China Sea in the rainy season (Jun. – Sep.). The precipitation changes over the ocean unexplained by SST were likely due to the water vapor transport dominated by dynamic factors. With the increased SST, the moisture transported from oceans to interior land was likely redistributed and caused the complicated regional variability of precipitation. Moreover, the impacts of aerosols on cloud and precipitation varied with different pollution levels and different seasons. PMID:25033387

Hydroelectric rent and precipitation variability: the case of Norway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amundsen, E.S.; Tjoetta, Sigve

1993-01-01

Norway is about to reorganize its electricity production sector from a predominantly administered one to one which is based on market prices and principles of efficiency. The objective of this paper is to model the energy sector and to measure the size of hydro rent before and after the reorganization. We construct a regionally diversified and integrated equilibrium model of production, transmission and distribution of hydroelectricity. Particular attention is paid to the role of precipitation variability for the size and regional variation of hydro rent. We consider alternative routes for assessing the size of hydro rent in a long-run perspective. (author)

Assessing homogeneity and climate variability of temperature and precipitation series in the capitals of northeastern Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Hänsel, Stephanie; Medeiros, Deusdedit; Matschullat, Jörg; Silva, Isamara; Petta, Reinaldo

2016-03-01

A 51-year dataset (1961 to 2011) from nine meteorological stations in the capitals of northeastern Brazil (NEB), with daily data of precipitation totals and of mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, was statistically analyzed for data homogeneity and for signals of climate variability. The hypothesis was explored that a connection exists between inhomogeneities of the time series and the meteorological systems influencing the region. Results of the homogeneity analysis depend on the selected test variable, the test algorithm and the chosen significance level; all more or less subjective choices. Most of the temperature series was classified as "suspect", while most of the precipitation series was categorized as "useful". Displaying and visually checking the time series demonstrates the power of expertise and may allow for a deeper data analysis. Consistent changes in the seasonality of temperature and precipitation emerge over NEB despite manifold breaks in the temperature series. Both series appear to be coupled. The intra-annual temperature and precipitation ranges have increased, along with an intensified seasonal cycle. Temperature mainly increased during DJF, MAM and SON, with decreases in JJA being related to wetter conditions and more frequent heavy precipitation events. Drought conditions mostly increased in SON and DJF, depending on the timing of the local dry season.

Describing temporal variability of the mean Estonian precipitation series in climate time scale

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Post, P.; Kärner, O.

2009-04-01

Applicability of the random walk type models to represent the temporal variability of various atmospheric temperature series has been successfully demonstrated recently (e.g. Kärner, 2002). Main problem in the temperature modeling is connected to the scale break in the generally self similar air temperature anomaly series (Kärner, 2005). The break separates short-range strong non-stationarity from nearly stationary longer range variability region. This is an indication of the fact that several geophysical time series show a short-range non-stationary behaviour and a stationary behaviour in longer range (Davis et al., 1996). In order to model series like that the choice of time step appears to be crucial. To characterize the long-range variability we can neglect the short-range non-stationary fluctuations, provided that we are able to model properly the long-range tendencies. The structure function (Monin and Yaglom, 1975) was used to determine an approximate segregation line between the short and the long scale in terms of modeling. The longer scale can be called climate one, because such models are applicable in scales over some decades. In order to get rid of the short-range fluctuations in daily series the variability can be examined using sufficiently long time step. In the present paper, we show that the same philosophy is useful to find a model to represent a climate-scale temporal variability of the Estonian daily mean precipitation amount series over 45 years (1961-2005). Temporal variability of the obtained daily time series is examined by means of an autoregressive and integrated moving average (ARIMA) family model of the type (0,1,1). This model is applicable for daily precipitation simulating if to select an appropriate time step that enables us to neglet the short-range non-stationary fluctuations. A considerably longer time step than one day (30 days) is used in the current paper to model the precipitation time series variability. Each ARIMA (0

Probabilistic model fitting for spatio-temporal variability studies of precipitation: the Sara-Brut system - a case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorado Delgado, Jennifer; Burbano Criollo, Juan Carlos; Molina Tabares, Jose Manuel; Carvajal Escobar, Yesid; Aristizabal, Hector Fabio

2006-01-01

In this study, space and time variability of monthly and annual rainfall was analyzed for the downstream influence zone of a Colombian supply-regulation reservoir, Sara-Brut, located on the Cauca valley department. Monthly precipitation data from 18 gauge stations and for a 29-year record (1975-2003) were used. These data were processed by means of time series completion, consistency analyses and sample statistics computations. Theoretical probabilistic distribution models such as Gumbel, normal, lognormal and wake by, and other empirical distributions such as Weibull and Landwehr were applied in order to fit the historical precipitation data set. The fit standard error (FSE) was used to test the goodness of fit of the theoretical distribution models and to choose the best of this probabilistic function. The wake by approach showed the best goodness of fit in 89% of the total gauges taken into account. Time variability was analyzed by means of wake by estimated values of monthly and annual precipitation associated with return periods of 1,052, 1,25, 2, 10, 20 and 50 years. Precipitation space variability is presents by means of ArcGis v8.3 and using krigging as interpolation method. In general terms the results obtained from this study show significant distribution variability in precipitation over the whole area, and particularity, the formation of dry and humid nucleus over the northeastern strip and microclimates at the southwestern and central zone of the study area were observed, depending on the season of year. The mentioned distribution pattern is likely caused by the influence of pacific wind streams, which come from the Andean western mountain range. It is expected that the results from this work be helpful for future planning and hydrologic project design

Growing season temperature and precipitation variability and extremes in the U.S. Corn Belt from 1981 to 2012

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Dai, S.; Shulski, M.

2013-12-01

Climate warming and changes in rainfall patterns and increases in extreme events are resulting in higher risks of crop failures. A greater sense of urgency has been induced to understand the impacts of past climate on crop production in the U.S. As one of the most predominant sources of feed grains, corn is also the main source of U.S. ethanol. In the U.S. Corn Belt, region-scale evaluation on temperature and precipitation variability and extremes during the growing season is not well-documented yet. This study is part of the USDA-funded project 'Useful to Usable: Transforming climate variability and change information for cereal crop producers'. The overall goal of our work is to study the characteristics of average growing season conditions and changes in growing season temperature- and precipitation-based indices that are closely correlated with corn grain yield in the U.S. Corn Belt. The research area is the twelve major Corn Belt states, including IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, NE, OH, SD, ND, and WI. Climate data during 1981-2010 from 132 meteorological stations (elevation ranges from 122 m to 1,202 m) are used in this study, including daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperature, and daily precipitation. From 1981 to 2012, beginning date (BD), ending date (ED), and growing season length (GSL) in the climatological corn growing season are studied. Especially, during the agronomic corn growing season, from Apr to Oct, temperature- and precipitation-based indices are analyzed. The temperature-based indices include: number of days with daily mean temperature below 10°C, number of days with daily mean temperature above 30°C, the sum of growing degree days (GDD) between 10°C to 30°C (GDD10,30, growth range for corn), the sum of growing degree days above 30°C (GDD30+, exposure to harmful warming for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 0°C and 44°C (GDD0,44, survival range limits for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 5°C and 35°C (GDD5

Experimental droughts: Are precipitation variability and methodological trends hindering our understanding of ecological sensitivities to drought?

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Hoover, D. L.; Wilcox, K.; Young, K. E.

2017-12-01

Droughts are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, which may have dramatic and prolonged effects on ecosystem structure and function. There are currently hundreds of published, ongoing, and new drought experiments worldwide aimed to assess ecosystem sensitivities to drought and identify the mechanisms governing ecological resistance and resilience. However, to date, the results from these experiments have varied widely, and thus patterns of drought sensitivities have been difficult to discern. This lack of consensus at the field scale, limits the abilities of experiments to help improve land surface models, which often fail to realistically simulate ecological responses to extreme events. This is unfortunate because models offer an alternative, yet complementary approach to increase the spatial and temporal assessment of ecological sensitivities to drought that are not possible in the field due to logistical and financial constraints. Here we examined 89 published drought experiments, along with their associated historical precipitation records to (1) identify where and how drought experiments have been imposed, (2) determine the extremity of drought treatments in the context of historical climate, and (3) assess the influence of precipitation variability on drought experiments. We found an overall bias in drought experiments towards short-term, extreme experiments in water-limited ecosystems. When placed in the context of local historical precipitation, most experimental droughts were extreme, with 61% below the 5th, and 43% below the 1st percentile. Furthermore, we found that interannual precipitation variability had a large and potentially underappreciated effect on drought experiments due to the co-varying nature of control and drought treatments. Thus detecting ecological effects in experimental droughts is strongly influenced by the interaction between drought treatment magnitude, precipitation variability, and key

Distinguishing Land Change from Natural Variability and Uncertainty in Central Mexico with MODIS EVI, TRMM Precipitation, and MODIS LST Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zachary Christman

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Precipitation and temperature enact variable influences on vegetation, impacting the type and condition of land cover, as well as the assessment of change over broad landscapes. Separating the influence of vegetative variability independent and discrete land cover change remains a major challenge to landscape change assessments. The heterogeneous Lerma-Chapala-Santiago watershed of central Mexico exemplifies both natural and anthropogenic forces enacting variability and change on the landscape. This study employed a time series of Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI composites from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectoradiometer (MODIS for 2001–2007 and per-pixel multiple linear regressions in order to model changes in EVI as a function of precipitation, temperature, and elevation. Over the seven-year period, 59.1% of the variability in EVI was explained by variability in the independent variables, with highest model performance among changing and heterogeneous land cover types, while intact forest cover demonstrated the greatest resistance to changes in temperature and precipitation. Model results were compared to an independent change uncertainty assessment, and selected regional samples of change confusion and natural variability give insight to common problems afflicting land change analyses.

Contrasting the co-variability of daytime cloud and precipitation over tropical land and ocean

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Jin, Daeho; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Lee, Dongmin; Cho, Nayeong; Tan, Jackson

2018-03-01

The co-variability of cloud and precipitation in the extended tropics (35° N-35° S) is investigated using contemporaneous data sets for a 13-year period. The goal is to quantify potential relationships between cloud type fractions and precipitation events of particular strength. Particular attention is paid to whether the relationships exhibit different characteristics over tropical land and ocean. A primary analysis metric is the correlation coefficient between fractions of individual cloud types and frequencies within precipitation histogram bins that have been matched in time and space. The cloud type fractions are derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) joint histograms of cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness in 1° grid cells, and the precipitation frequencies come from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data set aggregated to the same grid.It is found that the strongest coupling (positive correlation) between clouds and precipitation occurs over ocean for cumulonimbus clouds and the heaviest rainfall. While the same cloud type and rainfall bin are also best correlated over land compared to other combinations, the correlation magnitude is weaker than over ocean. The difference is attributed to the greater size of convective systems over ocean. It is also found that both over ocean and land the anti-correlation of strong precipitation with weak (i.e., thin and/or low) cloud types is of greater absolute strength than positive correlations between weak cloud types and weak precipitation. Cloud type co-occurrence relationships explain some of the cloud-precipitation anti-correlations. Weak correlations between weaker rainfall and clouds indicate poor predictability for precipitation when cloud types are known, and this is even more true over land than over ocean.

Multi-pentad prediction of precipitation variability over Southeast Asia during boreal summer using BCC_CSM1.2

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chengcheng; Ren, Hong-Li; Zhou, Fang; Li, Shuanglin; Fu, Joshua-Xiouhua; Li, Guoping

2018-06-01

Precipitation is highly variable in space and discontinuous in time, which makes it challenging for models to predict on subseasonal scales (10-30 days). We analyze multi-pentad predictions from the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.2 (BCC_CSM1.2), which are based on hindcasts from 1997 to 2014. The analysis focus on the skill of the model to predict precipitation variability over Southeast Asia from May to September, as well as its connections with intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). The effective precipitation prediction length is about two pentads (10 days), during which the skill measured by anomaly correlation is greater than 0.1. In order to further evaluate the performance of the precipitation prediction, the diagnosis results of the skills of two related circulation fields show that the prediction skills for the circulation fields exceed that of precipitation. Moreover, the prediction skills tend to be higher when the amplitude of ISO is large, especially for a boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. The skills associated with phases 2 and 5 are higher, but that of phase 3 is relatively lower. Even so, different initial phases reflect the same spatial characteristics, which shows higher skill of precipitation prediction in the northwest Pacific Ocean. Finally, filter analysis is used on the prediction skills of total and subseasonal anomalies. The results of the two anomaly sets are comparable during the first two lead pentads, but thereafter the skill of the total anomalies is significantly higher than that of the subseasonal anomalies. This paper should help advance research in subseasonal precipitation prediction.

Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

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Schroeer, K.; Kirchengast, G.

2018-06-01

Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards in a warming climate have motivated studies to link precipitation intensities to temperature. Increases exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate of 6-7%/°C-1 are seen in short-duration, convective, high-percentile rainfall at mid latitudes, but the rates of change cease or revert at regionally variable threshold temperatures due to moisture limitations. It is unclear, however, what these findings mean in term of the actual risk of extreme precipitation on a regional to local scale. When conditioning precipitation intensities on local temperatures, key influences on the scaling relationship such as from the annual cycle and regional weather patterns need better understanding. Here we analyze these influences, using sub-hourly to daily precipitation data from a dense network of 189 stations in south-eastern Austria. We find that the temperature sensitivities in the mountainous western region are lower than in the eastern lowlands. This is due to the different weather patterns that cause extreme precipitation in these regions. Sub-hourly and hourly intensities intensify at super-CC and CC-rates, respectively, up to temperatures of about 17 °C. However, we also find that, because of the regional and seasonal variability of the precipitation intensities, a smaller scaling factor can imply a larger absolute change in intensity. Our insights underline that temperature precipitation scaling requires careful interpretation of the intent and setting of the study. When this is considered, conditional scaling factors can help to better understand which influences control the intensification of rainfall with temperature on a regional scale.

Assessing the spatial variability of mountain precipitation in California's Sierra Nevada using the Airborne Snow Observatory

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Brandt, T.; Deems, J. S.; Painter, T. H.; Dozier, J.

2016-12-01

In California's Sierra Nevada, 10 or fewer winter storms are responsible for most of the annual precipitation, which falls mostly as snow. Presently, surface stations are used to measure the dynamics of mountain precipitation. However, even in places like the Sierra Nevada—one of the most gauged regions in the world—the paucity of surface stations can lead to large errors in precipitation thereby biasing both total water year and short-term streamflow forecasts. Remotely sensed snow depth and water equivalent, at a time scale that resolves storms, might provide a novel solution to the problems of: (1) quantifying the spatial variability of mountain precipitation; and (2) assessing gridded precipitation products that are mostly based on surface station interpolation. NASA's Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO), an imaging spectrometer and LiDAR system, has measured snow in the Tuolumne River Basin in California's Sierra Nevada for the past four years, 2013-2016; and, measurements will continue. Principally, ASO monitors the progression of melt for water supply forecasting, nonetheless, a number of flights bracketed storms allowing for estimates of snow accumulation. In this study we examine a few of the ASO recorded storms to determine both the basin and subbasin orographic effect as well as the spatial patterns in total precipitation. We then compare these results to a number of gridded climate products and weather models including: Daymet, the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2), and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Finally, to put each ASO recorded storm into context, we use a climatology produced from snow pillows and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) for 2014-2016 to examine key accumulation events, and classify storms based on their integrated water vapor flux.

Spatiotemporal Variability and Covariability of Temperature, Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation in North America for Regional Climate Model Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Castro, C. L.; Beltran-Przekurat, A. B.; Pielke, R. A.

2007-05-01

Previous work has established that the dominant modes of Pacific SSTs influence the summer climate of North America through large-scale forcing, and this effect is most pronounced during the early part of the season. It is hypothesized, then, that land surface influences become more dominant in the latter part of the season as remote teleconnection influences diminish. As a first step toward investigation of this hypothesis in a regional climate model (RCM) framework, the statistically signficant spatiotemporal patterns of variability and covariability in North American precipitation (specified by the standardized precipitation index, or SPI), soil moisture, and vegetation are determined for timescales from a month to six months. To specify these respective data we use: CPC gauge- derived precipitation (1950-2000), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model and NOAH Model NLDAS soil moisture and temperature, and the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GIMMS-NDVI). The principal statistical tool used is multiple taper frequency singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD), and this is supplemented by wavelet analysis for specific areas of interest. The significant interannual variability in all of these data occur at a timescale of about 7 to 9 years and appears to be the integrated effect of remote SST forcing from the Pacific. Considering the entire year, the spatial pattern for precipitation resembles the typical ENSO winter signature. If the summer season is considered seperately, the out of phase relationship between precipitation anomalies in the central U.S. and core monsoon region is apparent. The largest soil moisture anomalies occur in the central U.S., since precipitation in this region has a consistent relationship to Pacific SSTs for the entire year. This helps to explain the approximately 20 year periodicity in drought conditions there. Unlike soil moisture, the largest anomalies in vegetation occur in the

Relative effects of precipitation variability and warming on tallgrass prairie ecosystem function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. A. Fay

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Precipitation and temperature drive many aspects of terrestrial ecosystem function. Climate change scenarios predict increasing precipitation variability and temperature, and long term experiments are required to evaluate the ecosystem consequences of interannual climate variation, increased growing season (intra-annual rainfall variability, and warming. We present results from an experiment applying increased growing season rainfall variability and year round warming in native tallgrass prairie. During ten years of study, total growing season rainfall varied 2-fold, and we found ~50–200% interannual variability in plant growth and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP, leaf carbon assimilation (A_CO2, and soil CO₂ efflux (J_CO2 despite only ~40% variation in mean volumetric soil water content (0–15 cm, Θ₁₅. Interannual variation in soil moisture was thus amplified in most measures of ecosystem response. Differences between years in Θ₁₅ explained the greatest portion (14–52% of the variation in these processes. Experimentally increased intra-annual season rainfall variability doubled the amplitude of intra-annual soil moisture variation and reduced Θ₁₅ by 15%, causing most ecosystem processes to decrease 8–40% in some or all years with increased rainfall variability compared to ambient rainfall timing, suggesting reduced ecosystem rainfall use efficiency. Warming treatments increased soil temperature at 5 cm depth, particularly during spring, fall, and winter. Warming advanced canopy green up in spring, increased winter J_CO2, and reduced summer J_CO2 and forb ANPP, suggesting that the effects of warming differed in cooler versus warmer parts of the year. We conclude that (1 major ecosystem processes in this grassland may be substantially altered by predicted changes in

Extreme precipitation variability, forage quality and large herbivore diet selection in arid environments

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Cain, James W.; Gedir, Jay V.; Marshal, Jason P.; Krausman, Paul R.; Allen, Jamison D.; Duff, Glenn C.; Jansen, Brian; Morgart, John R.

2017-01-01

Nutritional ecology forms the interface between environmental variability and large herbivore behaviour, life history characteristics, and population dynamics. Forage conditions in arid and semi-arid regions are driven by unpredictable spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall. Diet selection by herbivores should be directed towards overcoming the most pressing nutritional limitation (i.e. energy, protein [nitrogen, N], moisture) within the constraints imposed by temporal and spatial variability in forage conditions. We investigated the influence of precipitation-induced shifts in forage nutritional quality and subsequent large herbivore responses across widely varying precipitation conditions in an arid environment. Specifically, we assessed seasonal changes in diet breadth and forage selection of adult female desert bighorn sheep Ovis canadensis mexicana in relation to potential nutritional limitations in forage N, moisture and energy content (as proxied by dry matter digestibility, DMD). Succulents were consistently high in moisture but low in N and grasses were low in N and moisture until the wet period. Nitrogen and moisture content of shrubs and forbs varied among seasons and climatic periods, whereas trees had consistently high N and moderate moisture levels. Shrubs, trees and succulents composed most of the seasonal sheep diets but had little variation in DMD. Across all seasons during drought and during summer with average precipitation, forages selected by sheep were higher in N and moisture than that of available forage. Differences in DMD between sheep diets and available forage were minor. Diet breadth was lowest during drought and increased with precipitation, reflecting a reliance on few key forage species during drought. Overall, forage selection was more strongly associated with N and moisture content than energy content. Our study demonstrates that unlike north-temperate ungulates which are generally reported to be energy-limited, N and moisture

Application of Observed Precipitation in NCEP Global and Regional Data Assimilation Systems, Including Reanalysis and Land Data Assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, K. E.

2006-12-01

The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) applies several different analyses of observed precipitation in both the data assimilation and validation components of NCEP's global and regional numerical weather and climate prediction/analysis systems (including in NCEP global and regional reanalysis). This invited talk will survey these data assimilation and validation applications and methodologies, as well as the temporal frequency, spatial domains, spatial resolution, data sources, data density and data quality control in the precipitation analyses that are applied. Some of the precipitation analyses applied by EMC are produced by NCEP's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), while others are produced by the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the National Weather Service (NWS), or by automated algorithms of the NWS WSR-88D Radar Product Generator (RPG). Depending on the specific type of application in data assimilation or model forecast validation, the temporal resolution of the precipitation analyses may be hourly, daily, or pentad (5-day) and the domain may be global, continental U.S. (CONUS), or Mexico. The data sources for precipitation include ground-based gauge observations, radar-based estimates, and satellite-based estimates. The precipitation analyses over the CONUS are analyses of either hourly, daily or monthly totals of precipitation, and they are of two distinct types: gauge-only or primarily radar-estimated. The gauge-only CONUS analysis of daily precipitation utilizes an orographic-adjustment technique (based on the well-known PRISM precipitation climatology of Oregon State University) developed by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). The primary NCEP global precipitation analysis is the pentad CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), which blends both gauge observations and satellite estimates. The presentation will include a brief comparison between the CMAP analysis and other global

Two-stage precipitation of plutonium trifluoride

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luerkens, D.W.

1984-04-01

Plutonium trifluoride was precipitated using a two-stage precipitation system. A series of precipitation experiments identified the significant process variables affecting precipitate characteristics. A mathematical precipitation model was developed which was based on the formation of plutonium fluoride complexes. The precipitation model relates all process variables, in a single equation, to a single parameter that can be used to control particle characteristics

Long-term Observations of Intense Precipitation Small-scale Spatial Variability in a Semi-arid Catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Cropp, E. L.; Hazenberg, P.; Castro, C. L.; Demaria, E. M.

2017-12-01

In the southwestern US, the summertime North American Monsoon (NAM) provides about 60% of the region's annual precipitation. Recent research using high-resolution atmospheric model simulations and retrospective predictions has shown that since the 1950's, and more specifically in the last few decades, the mean daily precipitation in the southwestern U.S. during the NAM has followed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, days with more extreme precipitation have intensified. The current work focuses the impact of these long-term changes on the observed small-scale spatial variability of intense precipitation. Since limited long-term high-resolution observational data exist to support such climatological-induced spatial changes in precipitation frequency and intensity, the current work utilizes observations from the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona. Within this 150 km^2 catchment over 90 rain gauges have been installed since the 1950s, measuring at sub-hourly resolution. We have applied geospatial analyses and the kriging interpolation technique to identify long-term changes in the spatial and temporal correlation and anisotropy of intense precipitation. The observed results will be compared with the previously model simulated results, as well as related to large-scale variations in climate patterns, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Stochastic investigation of precipitation process for climatic variability identification

Science.gov (United States)

Sotiriadou, Alexia; Petsiou, Amalia; Feloni, Elisavet; Kastis, Paris; Iliopoulou, Theano; Markonis, Yannis; Tyralis, Hristos; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2016-04-01

The precipitation process is important not only to hydrometeorology but also to renewable energy resources management. We use a dataset consisting of daily and hourly records around the globe to identify statistical variability with emphasis on the last period. Specifically, we investigate the occurrence of mean, maximum and minimum values and we estimate statistical properties such as marginal probability distribution function and the type of decay of the climacogram (i.e., mean process variance vs. scale). Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

Effective assimilation of global precipitation: simulation experiments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guo-Yuan Lien

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Past attempts to assimilate precipitation by nudging or variational methods have succeeded in forcing the model precipitation to be close to the observed values. However, the model forecasts tend to lose their additional skill after a few forecast hours. In this study, a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF is used to effectively assimilate precipitation by allowing ensemble members with better precipitation to receive higher weights in the analysis. In addition, two other changes in the precipitation assimilation process are found to alleviate the problems related to the non-Gaussianity of the precipitation variable: (a transform the precipitation variable into a Gaussian distribution based on its climatological distribution (an approach that could also be used in the assimilation of other non-Gaussian observations and (b only assimilate precipitation at the location where at least some ensemble members have precipitation. Unlike many current approaches, both positive and zero rain observations are assimilated effectively. Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs are conducted using the Simplified Parametrisations, primitivE-Equation DYnamics (SPEEDY model, a simplified but realistic general circulation model. When uniformly and globally distributed observations of precipitation are assimilated in addition to rawinsonde observations, both the analyses and the medium-range forecasts of all model variables, including precipitation, are significantly improved as compared to only assimilating rawinsonde observations. The effect of precipitation assimilation on the analyses is retained on the medium-range forecasts and is larger in the Southern Hemisphere (SH than that in the Northern Hemisphere (NH because the NH analyses are already made more accurate by the denser rawinsonde stations. These improvements are much reduced when only the moisture field is modified by the precipitation observations. Both the Gaussian transformation and

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Summer Precipitation in Mexico under the Influence of the MJO, with Emphasis on the Bimodal Pattern

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Perdigón, J.; Romero-Centeno, R.; Barrett, B.; Ordoñez-Perez, P.

2017-12-01

In many regions of Mexico, precipitation occurs in a very well defined annual cycle with peaks in May-June and September-October and a relative minimum in the middle of the rainy season known as the midsummer drought (MSD). The MJO is the most important mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, and, although some studies have shown its evident influence on summer precipitation in Mexico, its role in modulating the bimodal pattern of the summer precipitation cycle is still an open question. The spatio-temporal variability of summer precipitation in Mexico is analyzed through composite analysis according to the phases of the MJO, using the very high resolution CHIRPS precipitation data base and gridded data from the CFSR reanalysis to analyzing the MJO influence on the atmospheric circulation over Mexico and its adjacent basins. In general, during MJO phases 8-2 (4-6) rainfall is above-normal (below-normal), although, in some cases, the summer rainfall patterns during the same phase present considerable differences. The atmospheric circulation shows low (high) troposphere southwesterly (northeasterly) wind anomalies in southern Mexico under wetter conditions compared with climatological patterns, while the inverse pattern is observed under drier conditions. Composite anomalies of several variables also agreed well with those rainfall anomalies. Finally, a MJO complete cycle that reinforces (weakens) the bimodal pattern of summer rainfall in Mexico was found.

An Improved Plutonium Trifluoride Precipitation Flowsheet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harmon, H.D.

2001-06-26

This report discusses results of the plutonium trifluoride two-stage precipitation study. A series of precipitation experiments was used to identify the significant process variables affecting precipitation performance. A mathematical model of the precipitation process was developed which is based on the formation of plutonium fluoride complexes. The precipitation model relates all process variables, in a single equation, to a single parameter which can be used to control the performance of the plutonium trifluoride precipitation process. Recommendations have been made which will optimize the FB-Line plutonium trifluoride precipitation process.

An Improved Plutonium Trifluoride Precipitation Flowsheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harmon, H.D.

2001-01-01

This report discusses results of the plutonium trifluoride two-stage precipitation study. A series of precipitation experiments was used to identify the significant process variables affecting precipitation performance. A mathematical model of the precipitation process was developed which is based on the formation of plutonium fluoride complexes. The precipitation model relates all process variables, in a single equation, to a single parameter which can be used to control the performance of the plutonium trifluoride precipitation process. Recommendations have been made which will optimize the FB-Line plutonium trifluoride precipitation process

Two-stage precipitation of neptunium (IV) oxalate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luerkens, D.W.

1983-07-01

Neptunium (IV) oxalate was precipitated using a two-stage precipitation system. A series of precipitation experiments was used to identify the significant process variables affecting precipitate characteristics. Process variables tested were input concentrations, solubility conditions in the first stage precipitator, precipitation temperatures, and residence time in the first stage precipitator. A procedure has been demonstrated that produces neptunium (IV) oxalate particles that filter well and readily calcine to the oxide

Relationship between annual precipitation variability and ENSO in Southern California for the Common Era (last 2,000 years)

Science.gov (United States)

DU, X.; Hendy, I. L.; Hinnov, L.; Brown, E. T.; Schimmelmann, A.; Pak, D. K.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a major influence on Southern California's hydroclimate as demonstrated by both historical observations and model simulations. Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) off Southern California preserves a unique varved (i.e. annually laminated) marine sedimentary archive of modern and Holocene hydroclimate variability, notably including the transition from the regionally dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the wetter Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we present sub-annually resolved scanning XRF elemental counts for the last 2,000 years in SBB from core SPR0901-03KC. Titanium (associated with silicate minerals) is delivered more efficiently to SBB sediments during times of enhanced river flow and in the Mediterranean climate of Southern California, river flow only occurs after precipitation. The Ti record suggests that the precipitation frequency was reduced during the MCA except for a pluvial episode at CE 1075-1121, but increased during the LIA. Time series analysis of Ti counts indicates ENSO variability robustly increased during the intervals CE 450-520, 650-720, 980-1150, 1380-1550 and 1720-1750, and experienced relatively quiescent intervals between CE 50-150, 250-400, 550-650, 750-950, 1150-1280 and 1580-1620. Generally the LIA in Southern California is characterized by more active ENSO variability with long periodicities (4-7 yr) and multi-decadal variability (54 yr). MCA drought episodes were associated with less active ENSO. Active ENSO variability in Southern California during the last 2,000 years coincided with reconstructed southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) suggesting the ITCZ may play a role in the waxing and waning of ENSO teleconnections between the central Pacific and the west coast of North America.

Seasonal to Interannual Variability of Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimates in the Pacific Ocean Associated with ENSO from 1998 to 2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xueyan Hou

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Based on a widely used satellite precipitation product (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B43, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Pacific Ocean for 1998–2014 at seasonal and interannual timescales, separately, using the conventional empirical orthogonal function (EOF and investigated the seasonal patterns associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO cycles using season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (SEOF analysis. Lagged correlation analysis was also applied to derive the lead/lag correlations of the first two SEOF modes for precipitation with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and two types of El Niño, i.e., central Pacific (CP El Niño and eastern Pacific (EP El Niño. We found that: (1 The first two seasonal EOF modes for precipitation represent the annual cycle of precipitation variations for the Pacific Ocean and the first interannual EOF mode shows the spatiotemporal variability associated with ENSO; (2 The first SEOF mode for precipitation is simultaneously associated with the development of El Niño and most likely coincides with CP El Niño. The second SEOF mode lagged behind ENSO by one year and is associated with post-El Niño years. PDO modulates precipitation variability significantly only when ENSO occurs by strengthening and prolonging the impacts of ENSO; (3 Seasonally evolving patterns of the first two SEOF modes represent the consecutive precipitation patterns associated with the entire development of EP El Niño and the following recovery year. The most significant variation occurs over the tropical Pacific, especially in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ; (4 Dry conditions in the western basin of the warm pool and wet conditions along the ITCZ and SPCZ bands during the mature phase of El Niño are associated with warm sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, and a subtropical anticyclone dominating

The Contribution of Extreme Precipitation to the Total Precipitation in China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SUN Jian-Qi

2012-01-01

Using daily precipitation data from weather stations in China, the variations in the contribution of extreme precipitation to the total precipitation are analyzed. It is found that extreme precipitation accounts for approximately one third of the total precipitation based on the overall mean for China. Over the past half century, extreme precipitation has played a dominant role in the year-to-year variability of the total precipitation. On the decadal time scale, the extreme precipitation makes different contributions to the wetting and drying regions of China. The wetting trends of particular regions are mainly attributed to increases in extreme precipitation; in contrast, the drying trends of other regions are mainly due to decreases in non-extreme precipitation.

Black carbon and West African Monsoon precipitation. Observations and simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, J.; Adams, A.; Zhang, C.; Wang, C.

2009-01-01

We have recently investigated large-scale co-variability between aerosol and precipitation and other meteorological variables in the West African Monsoon (WAM) region using long term satellite observations and reanalysis data. In this study we compared the observational results to a global model simulation including only direct radiative forcing of black carbon (BC). From both observations and model simulations we found that in boreal cold seasons anomalously high African aerosols are associated with significant reductions in cloud amount, cloud top height, and surface precipitation. These results suggest that the observed precipitation reduction in the WAM region is caused by radiative effect of BC. The result also suggests that the BC effect on precipitation is nonlinear. (orig.)

Untangling the Impacts of Climate Variability on Atmospheric Rivers and Western U.S. Precipitation Using PERSIANN-CONNECT

Science.gov (United States)

Sellars, S. L.; Gao, X.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.; McCabe-Glynn, S.

2014-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), the large plumes of moisture transported from the tropics, impact many aspects of society in the Western U.S. When ARs make landfall, they are often associated with torrential rains, swollen rivers, flash flooding, and mudslides. We demonstrate that by viewing precipitation events associated with ARs as "objects", calculating their physical characteristics (mean intensity (mm/hr), speed (km/hr), etc.), assigning environmental characteristics (e.g. phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation) for each system, and then performing empirical analyses, we can reveal interactions between different climate phenomena. To perform this analysis, we use a unique object oriented data set based on the gridded, satellite precipitation data from the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) algorithm known as PERSIANN-CONNECT, for the period 3/2000 to 12/2010. The data is segmented into 4D objects (longitude, latitude, time and intensity). Each of the segmented precipitation systems is described by over 72 characteristics. A search of the PERSIANN-CONNECT database for all Western U.S. large-scale precipitation systems returns 626 systems. Out of the 626 large-scale precipitation systems, 200 occurred at the same time as documented Western U.S. land falling ARs (a list of ARs provided by Dr. Martin Ralph). Here we report the physical and environmental characteristics for these 200 storms including a comparison to the 426 non-AR storms. We also report results of an analysis of the δ18O measurements collected from Giant Forest, Sequoia National Park in the Southwestern Sierra Nevada Mountains (McCabe-Glynn et al., in prep.) for the 200 AR precipitation systems. For an overall assessment of the impacts of climate variability on all 626 precipitation systems, we focus on ENSO, and show that during El Nino/La Nina, as compared with Neutral phases of ENSO, the systems are larger (9505, 9097, vs. 6075km

Hemispherically in-phase precipitation variability over the last 1700 years in a Madagascar speleothem record

Science.gov (United States)

Scroxton, Nick; Burns, Stephen J.; McGee, David; Hardt, Ben; Godfrey, Laurie R.; Ranivoharimanana, Lovasoa; Faina, Peterson

2017-05-01

Paleoclimate studies of tropical rainfall have led to a recognition of a predominant pattern of anti-phase behavior between the Northern and Southern hemispheres at both orbital and millennial timescales. Less certain is how regional tropical rainfall patterns have changed in the late Holocene, under boundary conditions and on timescales which are most relevant to the tropics' response to a warming world. Several high-resolution southern hemisphere rainfall records are at odds with meridional movement of the mean Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone location as the major driver of Holocene tropical rainfall variability, with regional precipitation patterns resembling modern day El-Niño Southern Oscillation end members. To test emerging ideas on sub-millennial tropical rainfall variability, additional records from the southern hemisphere are required. We present a new speleothem δ18O record from Anjohibe Cave, northwestern Madagascar, which provides a quasi-annual record of monsoonal strength and precipitation amount for the last 1700 years. The majority of δ18O variability in the record is at the decadal scale, and shows little to no correlation with major climate indices or cyclical climate drivers. At lower frequencies, changes in mean speleothem δ18O show good correlation with other regional precipitation records both north and south of the equator. The regional coherency of tropical rainfall across the west Indian Ocean resembles expansion and contraction of the tropical rain belt and positive-Indian Ocean Dipole-like conditions at different timescales. The cause of this coherency could be related to symmetrical changes in continental sensible heating, or to a low frequency sea surface temperature climate mode.

Land Use in LCA: Including Regionally Altered Precipitation to Quantify Ecosystem Damage.

Science.gov (United States)

Lathuillière, Michael J; Bulle, Cécile; Johnson, Mark S

2016-11-01

The incorporation of soil moisture regenerated by precipitation, or green water, into life cycle assessment has been of growing interest given the global importance of this resource for terrestrial ecosystems and food production. This paper proposes a new impact assessment model to relate land and water use in seasonally dry, semiarid, and arid regions where precipitation and evapotranspiration are closely coupled. We introduce the Precipitation Reduction Potential midpoint impact representing the change in downwind precipitation as a result of a land transformation and occupation activity. Then, our end-point impact model quantifies terrestrial ecosystem damage as a function of precipitation loss using a relationship between woody plant species richness, water and energy regimes. We then apply the midpoint and end-point models to the production of soybean in Southeastern Amazonia which has resulted from the expansion of cropland into tropical forest, with noted effects on local precipitation. Our proposed cause-effect chain represents a complementary approach to previous contributions which have focused on water consumption impacts and/or have represented evapotranspiration as a loss to the water cycle.

An analysis of the daily precipitation variability in the Himalayan orogen using a statistical parameterisation and its potential in driving landscape evolution models with stochastic climatic forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Deal, Eric; Braun, Jean

2015-04-01

A current challenge in landscape evolution modelling is to integrate realistic precipitation patterns and behaviour into longterm fluvial erosion models. The effect of precipitation on fluvial erosion can be subtle as well as nonlinear, implying that changes in climate (e.g. precipitation magnitude or storminess) may have unexpected outcomes in terms of erosion rates. For example Tucker and Bras (2000) show theoretically that changes in the variability of precipitation (storminess) alone can influence erosion rate across a landscape. To complicate the situation further, topography, ultimately driven by tectonic uplift but shaped by erosion, has a major influence on the distribution and style of precipitation. Therefore, in order to untangle the coupling between climate, erosion and tectonics in an actively uplifting orogen where fluvial erosion is dominant it is important to understand how the 'rain dial' used in a landscape evolution model (LEM) corresponds to real precipitation patterns. One issue with the parameterisation of rainfall for use in an LEM is the difference between the timescales for precipitation (≤ 1 year) and landscape evolution (> 103 years). As a result, precipitation patterns must be upscaled before being integrated into a model. The relevant question then becomes: What is the most appropriate measure of precipitation on a millennial timescale? Previous work (Tucker and Bras, 2000; Lague, 2005) has shown that precipitation can be properly upscaled by taking into account its variable nature, along with its average magnitude. This captures the relative size and frequency of extreme events, ensuring a more accurate characterisation of the integrated effects of precipitation on erosion over long periods of time. In light of this work, we present a statistical parameterisation that accurately models the mean and daily variability of ground based (APHRODITE) and remotely sensed (TRMM) precipitation data in the Himalayan orogen with only a few

Drivers of long-term precipitation and runoff variability in the southeastern USA

Science.gov (United States)

Engström, Johanna; Waylen, Peter

2018-02-01

The hydroclimatology of the southeastern USA (AL, GA, NC, SC, and TN) is analyzed from a holistic perspective, including multiple climate drivers. Monthly precipitation modeled by the PRISM group and runoff data (1952-2011) from 18 basins are analyzed using a single-field based principal component's analysis. Results indicate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation are the main atmospheric drivers of hydroclimate variability in the region, sometimes operating at several months' lag. Their influence is the strongest in the fall through spring, which corresponds with the dry season in the southern parts of the study area thereby increasing pressure on already limited water resources. The Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific-North American patterns vary on shorter-term bases, and also show a significant, but temporally more sporadic influence. Insight is also brought to the ongoing discussion, confirming the disassociation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation. Findings can be used in water resources forecasting, giving an indication of expected water volumes several months ahead.

Precipitation Sedimentation and Advection in GFS

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, R.; Tallapragada, V.

2016-12-01

Zhao and Carr microphysics scheme as implemented in the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) predicts only the total cloud condensate (cloud water or ice). The precipitation generated in the column fall to the ground instantly. This mean precipitation sedimentation and advection are not considered. As resolution increases the lack of the two physical processes creates problems. The slowly falling precipitation (snow) falls to the wrong surface grid box, which may have led to the observed spotty-precipitation pattern. To solve the problem two prognositic variables, snow and rain, are added. Addition of the two precipitation variable allows their advection. The corresponding sedimentation process are also added. In this study we examine the effect of precipitation advection and sedimentation on the precipitation pattern, associated precipitation skills and clouds.

Variability of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the Holocene and possible forcing mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Fuzhi; Ma, Chunmei; Zhu, Cheng; Lu, Huayu; Zhang, Xiaojian; Huang, Kangyou; Guo, Tianhong; Li, Kaifeng; Li, Lan; Li, Bing; Zhang, Wenqing

2018-03-01

Projecting how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall will change with global warming is essential for human sustainability. Reconstructing Holocene climate can provide critical insight into its forcing and future variability. However, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene summer precipitation are lacking for tropical and subtropical China, which is the core region of the EASM influence. Here we present high-resolution annual and summer rainfall reconstructions covering the whole Holocene based on the pollen record at Xinjie site from the lower Yangtze region. Summer rainfall was less seasonal and 30% higher than modern values at 10-6 cal kyr BP and gradually declined thereafter, which broadly followed the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Over the last two millennia, however, the summer rainfall has deviated from the downward trend of summer insolation. We argue that greenhouse gas forcing might have offset summer insolation forcing and contributed to the late Holocene rainfall anomaly, which is supported by the TraCE-21 ka transient simulation. Besides, tropical sea-surface temperatures could modulate summer rainfall by affecting evaporation of seawater. The rainfall pattern concurs with stalagmite and other proxy records from southern China but differs from mid-Holocene rainfall maximum recorded in arid/semiarid northern China. Summer rainfall in northern China was strongly suppressed by high-northern-latitude ice volume forcing during the early Holocene in spite of high summer insolation. In addition, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation might be responsible for droughts of northern China and floods of southern China during the late Holocene. Furthermore, quantitative rainfall reconstructions indicate that the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations underestimate the magnitude of Holocene precipitation changes. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal variability of the Holocene EASM precipitation and potential forcing

ARM Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (ACAPEX) Science Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leung, L. R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Prather, K. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States); Ralph, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Rosenfeld, D. [The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel); Spackman, R. [Science and Technology Corporation (STC), Hampton, VA (United States); DeMott, P. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Fairall, C. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Fan, J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hagos, S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hughes, M. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Long, C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rutledge, S. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Waliser, D. [National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Washington, DC (United States); Wang, H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-09-01

The western U.S. receives precipitation predominantly during the cold season when storms approach from the Pacific Ocean. The snowpack that accumulates during winter storms provides about 70-90% of water supply for the region. Understanding and modeling the fundamental processes that govern the large precipitation variability and extremes in the western U.S. is a critical test for the ability of climate models to predict the regional water cycle, including floods and droughts. Two elements of significant importance in predicting precipitation variability in the western U.S. are atmospheric rivers and aerosols. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow bands of enhanced water vapor associated with the warm sector of extratropical cyclones over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Because of the large lower-tropospheric water vapor content, strong atmospheric winds and neutral moist static stability, some ARs can produce heavy precipitation by orographic enhancement during landfall on the U.S. West Coast. While ARs are responsible for a large fraction of heavy precipitation in that region during winter, much of the rest of the orographic precipitation occurs in post-frontal clouds, which are typically quite shallow, with tops just high enough to pass the mountain barrier. Such clouds are inherently quite susceptible to aerosol effects on both warm rain and ice precipitation-forming processes.

Evaluation of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models within South America-CORDEX simulations: ENSO related interannual precipitation variability

Science.gov (United States)

Bozkurt, D.; Rojas, M.

2014-12-01

This study aims to investigate and compare the ability of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate mean and interannual variability of precipitation over South America with a special focus on Chile. The HadGEM3-RA is a regional version of the newly developed HadGEM3 global model and the HadRM3P is based on the earlier HadCM3 global model. The RCMs simulations were carried out at 0.44o x 0.44o degree resolution over South America-CORDEX domain for the period 1989-2008. The initial and boundary conditions were provided by ERA-Interim Reanalysis data available at 6-h intervals with a resolution of 1.5o x 1.5o in the horizontal and 37 pressure levels. We compare the results against a number of observational datasets, including gridded dataset of CRU, UDEL, TRMM and GPCP. Moreover, available station data is derived from Direccion General de Aguas (DGA) mainly for Central Chile, which is the heartland of Chile with the highest population and important economic activities. The analysis is mainly focused on evaluating the abilities of the RCMs in simulating spatial pattern and ENSO related precipitation variability in different subregions of South America-CORDEX domain. In general, both RCMs have a good skill in reproducing spatial pattern and annual cycle of observed precipitation in climatically different subregions. However, both RCMs tend to underestimate precipitation in the Amazon Basin, which is more pronounced in the HadRM3P simulations. On the contrary, the RCMs tend to overestimate the precipitation over the Andes and southern Chile. The overestimation could be related to the physical core of the RCMs, but the discrepancies could also arise due to insufficient station network, especially in the mountainous areas, potentially yielding smaller precipitation quantities in the observed data than the true ones. In terms of interannual variability, the models capture ENSO related wet and dry interannual precipitation

Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Central-Southwest Asian Winter Precipitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Tippett, Michael K.; Goddard, Lisa; Barnston, Anthony G.

2005-06-01

Interannual precipitation variability in central-southwest (CSW) Asia has been associated with East Asian jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection. However, atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) poorly simulate the region's interannual precipitation variability. The statistical-dynamical approach uses statistical methods to correct systematic deficiencies in the response of AGCMs to SST forcing. Statistical correction methods linking model-simulated Indo-west Pacific precipitation and observed CSW Asia precipitation result in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated simulation skill in the northeast part of the domain for the period from 1951 to 1998. The statistical-dynamical method is also applied to recent (winter 1998/99 to 2002/03) multimodel, two-tier December-March precipitation forecasts initiated in October. This period includes 4 yr (winter of 1998/99 to 2001/02) of severe drought. Tercile probability forecasts are produced using ensemble-mean forecasts and forecast error estimates. The statistical-dynamical forecasts show enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for the four drought years and capture the return to normal conditions in part of the region during the winter of 2002/03.May Kabul be without gold, but not without snow.—Traditional Afghan proverb

Climatology and Interannual Variability of Quasi-Global Intense Precipitation Using Satellite Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Ricko, Martina; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.

2016-01-01

Climatology and variations of recent mean and intense precipitation over a near-global (50 deg. S 50 deg. N) domain on a monthly and annual time scale are analyzed. Data used to derive daily precipitation to examine the effects of spatial and temporal coverage of intense precipitation are from the current Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 version 7 precipitation product, with high spatial and temporal resolution during 1998 - 2013. Intense precipitation is defined by several different parameters, such as a 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation, a mean precipitation that exceeds that percentile, or a fixed threshold of daily precipitation value [e.g., 25 and 50 mm day(exp -1)]. All parameters are used to identify the main characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of intense precipitation. High correlations between examined parameters are observed, especially between climatological monthly mean precipitation and intense precipitation, over both tropical land and ocean. Among the various parameters examined, the one best characterizing intense rainfall is a fraction of daily precipitation Great than or equal to 25 mm day(exp. -1), defined as a ratio between the intense precipitation above the used threshold and mean precipitation. Regions that experience an increase in mean precipitation likely experience a similar increase in intense precipitation, especially during the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Improved knowledge of this intense precipitation regime and its strong connection to mean precipitation given by the fraction parameter can be used for monitoring of intense rainfall and its intensity on a global to regional scale.

Harmonic analysis of the precipitation in Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Nastos, P. T.; Zerefos, C. S.

2009-04-01

Greece is a country with a big variety of climates due to its geographical position, to the many mountain ranges and also to the multifarious and long coastline. The mountainous volumes are of such orientation that influences the distribution of the precipitation, having as a result, Western Greece to present great differentiations from Central and Eastern Greece. The application of harmonic analysis to the annual variability of precipitation is the goal of this study, so that the components, which compose the annual variability, be elicited. For this purpose, the mean monthly precipitation data from 30 meteorological stations of National Meteorological Service were used for the time period 1950-2000. The initial target is to reduce the number of variables and to detect structure in the relationships between variables. The most commonly used technique for this purpose is the application of Factor Analysis to a table having as columns the meteorological stations-variables and rows the monthly mean precipitation, so that 2 main factors were calculated, which explain the 98% of total variability of precipitation in Greece. Factor 1, representing the so-called uniform field and interpreting the most of the total variance, refers in fact to the Mediterranean depressions, affecting mainly the West of Greece and also the East Aegean and the Asia Minor coasts. In the process, the Fourier Analysis was applied to the factor scores extracted from the Factor Analysis, so that 2 harmonic components are resulted, which explain above the 98% of the total variability of each main factor, and are due to different synoptic and thermodynamic processes associated with Greece's precipitation construction. Finally, the calculation of the time of occurrence of the maximum precipitation, for each harmonic component of each one of the two main factors, gives the spatial distribution of appearance of the maximum precipitation in the Hellenic region.

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission: Precipitation Processing System (PPS) GPM Mission Gridded Text Products Provide Surface Precipitation Retrievals

Science.gov (United States)

Stocker, Erich Franz; Kelley, O.; Kummerow, C.; Huffman, G.; Olson, W.; Kwiatkowski, J.

2015-01-01

In February 2015, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission core satellite will complete its first year in space. The core satellite carries a conically scanning microwave imager called the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI), which also has 166 GHz and 183 GHz frequency channels. The GPM core satellite also carries a dual frequency radar (DPR) which operates at Ku frequency, similar to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, and a new Ka frequency. The precipitation processing system (PPS) is producing swath-based instantaneous precipitation retrievals from GMI, both radars including a dual-frequency product, and a combined GMIDPR precipitation retrieval. These level 2 products are written in the HDF5 format and have many additional parameters beyond surface precipitation that are organized into appropriate groups. While these retrieval algorithms were developed prior to launch and are not optimal, these algorithms are producing very creditable retrievals. It is appropriate for a wide group of users to have access to the GPM retrievals. However, for researchers requiring only surface precipitation, these L2 swath products can appear to be very intimidating and they certainly do contain many more variables than the average researcher needs. Some researchers desire only surface retrievals stored in a simple easily accessible format. In response, PPS has begun to produce gridded text based products that contain just the most widely used variables for each instrument (surface rainfall rate, fraction liquid, fraction convective) in a single line for each grid box that contains one or more observations.This paper will describe the gridded data products that are being produced and provide an overview of their content. Currently two types of gridded products are being produced: (1) surface precipitation retrievals from the core satellite instruments GMI, DPR, and combined GMIDPR (2) surface precipitation retrievals for the partner constellation

Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2016-01-01

Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

Effective Assimilation of Global Precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Lien, G.; Kalnay, E.; Miyoshi, T.; Huffman, G. J.

2012-12-01

Assimilating precipitation observations by modifying the moisture and sometimes temperature profiles has been shown successful in forcing the model precipitation to be close to the observed precipitation, but only while the assimilation is taking place. After the forecast start, the model tends to "forget" the assimilation changes and lose their extra skill after few forecast hours. This suggests that this approach is not an efficient way to modify the potential vorticity field, since this is the variable that the model would remember. In this study, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method is used to effectively change the potential vorticity field by allowing ensemble members with better precipitation to receive higher weights. In addition to using an EnKF, two other changes in the precipitation assimilation process are proposed to solve the problems related to the highly non-Gaussian nature of the precipitation variable: a) transform precipitation into a Gaussian distribution based on its climatological distribution, and b) only assimilate precipitation at the location where some ensemble members have positive precipitation. The idea is first tested by the observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using SPEEDY, a simplified but realistic general circulation model. When the global precipitation is assimilated in addition to conventional rawinsonde observations, both the analyses and the medium range forecasts are significantly improved as compared to only having rawinsonde observations. The improvement is much reduced when only modifying the moisture field with the same approach, which shows the importance of the error covariance between precipitation and all other model variables. The effect of precipitation assimilation is larger in the Southern Hemisphere than that in the Northern Hemisphere because the Northern Hemisphere analyses are already accurate as a result of denser rawinsonde stations. Assimilation of precipitation using a more comprehensive

Regionalization of precipitation characteristics in Iran's Lake Urmia basin

Science.gov (United States)

Fazel, Nasim; Berndtsson, Ronny; Uvo, Cintia Bertacchi; Madani, Kaveh; Kløve, Bjørn

2018-04-01

Lake Urmia in northwest Iran, once one of the largest hypersaline lakes in the world, has shrunk by almost 90% in area and 80% in volume during the last four decades. To improve the understanding of regional differences in water availability throughout the region and to refine the existing information on precipitation variability, this study investigated the spatial pattern of precipitation for the Lake Urmia basin. Daily rainfall time series from 122 precipitation stations with different record lengths were used to extract 15 statistical descriptors comprising 25th percentile, 75th percentile, and coefficient of variation for annual and seasonal total precipitation. Principal component analysis in association with cluster analysis identified three main homogeneous precipitation groups in the lake basin. The first sub-region (group 1) includes stations located in the center and southeast; the second sub-region (group 2) covers mostly northern and northeastern part of the basin, and the third sub-region (group 3) covers the western and southern edges of the basin. Results of principal component (PC) and clustering analyses showed that seasonal precipitation variation is the most important feature controlling the spatial pattern of precipitation in the lake basin. The 25th and 75th percentiles of winter and autumn are the most important variables controlling the spatial pattern of the first rotated principal component explaining about 32% of the total variance. Summer and spring precipitation variations are the most important variables in the second and third rotated principal components, respectively. Seasonal variation in precipitation amount and seasonality are explained by topography and influenced by the lake and westerly winds that are related to the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Despite using incomplete time series with different lengths, the identified sub-regions are physically meaningful.

Impact of precipitation and land biophysical variables on the simulated discharge of European and Mediterranean rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Szczypta, C.; Decharme, B.; Carrer, D.; Calvet, J.-C.; Lafont, S.; Somot, S.; Faroux, S.; Martin, E.

2012-09-01

This study investigates the impact on river discharge simulations of errors in the precipitation forcing, together with changes in the representation of vegetation variables and of plant transpiration. The most recent European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA-Interim) is used to drive the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (ISBA-TRIP) continental hydrological system over Europe and the Mediterranean basin over the 1991-2008 period. As ERA-Interim tends to underestimate precipitation, a number of precipitation corrections are proposed. In particular, the monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation product is used to bias-correct the 3-hourly ERA-Interim estimates. This correction markedly improves the match between the ISBA-TRIP simulations and the river discharge observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), at 150 gauging stations. The impact on TRIP river discharge simulations of various representations of the evapotranspiration in the ISBA land surface model is investigated as well: ISBA is used together with its upgraded carbon flux version (ISBA-A-gs). The latter is either driven by the satellite-derived climatology of the Leaf Area Index (LAI) used by ISBA, or performs prognostic LAI simulations. The ISBA-A-gs model, with or without dynamically simulated LAI, allows a better representation of river discharge at low water levels. On the other hand, ISBA-A-gs does not perform as well as the original ISBA model at springtime.

Sensitivities of dry season runoff to precipitation and temperature in southern Sierra Nevada streams

Science.gov (United States)

Safeeq, M.; Hunsaker, C. T.; Bales, R. C.

2016-12-01

In a mediterranean climate, dry season runoff sustains water supply and supports aquatic habitat and other ecosystems. Precipitation and temperature directly, by regulating recharge and evapotranspiration (ET), and indirectly, by regulating amount and timing of snowmelt, control the dry season runoff in the Sierra Nevada. Here, we explored relative impacts of precipitation and temperature variability on dry season runoff using path analysis. Specific objectives include: (i) to quantify the direct and indirect impacts of precipitation and temperature on 7-day average minimum flow (Qmin) and (ii) to explore the role of preceding year Qmin on fall season runoff (QF). We used daily runoff, air temperature, precipitation, and snow water equivalent (SWE) over 2004-2015 for the ten catchments in the Kings River Experimental Watersheds. For path analysis model of Qmin, we defined annual precipitation and temperature as exogenous variables and peak SWE, day of snow disappearance, and Qmin as endogenous variables. For QF, we defined current year fall precipitation and preceding year Qmin as exogenous variables and current year QF as an endogenous variable. Path analysis results for Qmin show precipitation as a dominant driver when compared to temperature, peak SWE, and day of snow disappearance. However, in half of the catchments that are mostly located at higher elevations the impact of temperature on Qmin was either comparable or exceeded that of precipitation. This relatively high sensitivity of Qmin to air temperature in high elevation catchments is consistent with the earlier findings of increased ET in proportion to warming. The direct effects of peak SWE and day of snow disappearance on Qmin were limited, and indirect effects of temperature and precipitation via peak SWE and day of snow disappearance were not significant. The preceding year Qmin and fall precipitation showed comparable impacts on QF, indicating that the storage in the preceding year modulates current

The transfer of seasonal isotopic variability between precipitation and drip water at eight caves in the monsoon regions of China

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Wuhui; Ruan, Jiaoyang; Luo, Weijun; Li, Tingyong; Tian, Lijun; Zeng, Guangneng; Zhang, Dezhong; Bai, Yijun; Li, Jilong; Tao, Tao; Zhang, Pingzhong; Baker, Andy; Tan, Ming

2016-06-01

This study presents new stable isotope data for precipitation (δ18Op) and drip water (δ18Od) from eight cave sites in the monsoon regions of China (MRC), with monthly to bi-monthly sampling intervals from May-2011 to April-2014, to investigate the regional-scale climate forcing on δ18Op and how the isotopic signals are transmitted to various drip sites. The monthly δ18Op values show negative correlation with surface air temperature at all the cave sites except Shihua Cave, which is opposite to that expected from the temperature effect. In addition, although the monthly δ18Op values are negatively correlated with precipitation at all the cave sites, only three sites are significant at the 95% level. These indicate that, due to the various vapor sources, a large portion of variability in δ18Op in the MRC cannot be explained simply by either temperature or precipitation alone. All the thirty-four drip sites are classified into three types based on the δ18Od variability. About 82% of them are static drips with little discernable variation in δ18Od through the whole study period, but the drip rates of these drips are not necessary constant. Their discharge modes are site-specific and the oxygen isotopic composition of the stalagmites growing from them may record the average of multi-year climatic signals, which are modulated by the seasonality of recharge and potential effects of evaporation, and in some cases infiltration from large rainfall events. About 12% of the thirty-four drip sites are seasonal drips, although the amplitude of δ18Od is narrower than that of δ18Op, the monthly response of δ18Od to coeval precipitation is not completely damped, and some of them follow the seasonal trend of δ18Op very well. These drips may be mainly recharged by present-day precipitation, mixing with some stored water. Thus, the stalagmites growing under them may record portions of the seasonal climatic signals embedded in δ18Op. About 6% of the thirty-four drip sites

Changing characteristics and spatial differentiation of spring precipitation in Southwest China during 1961-2012

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

刘洪兰; 张强; 张俊国; 胡文超; 郭俊琴; 王胜

2015-01-01

In this study, we analyze spring precipitation from 92 meteorological stations spanning between 1961 and 2012 to understand temporal–spatial variability and change of spring precipitation over Southwest China. Various analysis meth-ods are used for different purposes, including empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and rotated EOF (REOF) for analyzing spatial structure change of precipitation anomaly, and Mann–Kendall testing method to determine whether there were abrupt changes during the analyzed time span. We find that the first spatial mode of the precipitation has a domain uniform structure;the second is dominated by a spatial dipole;and the third contains five variability centers. 2000s is the decade of largest amount of precipitation while 1990s the decade of smallest amount of precipitation. Year-to-year differ-ence of that region is large:the amount of the largest precipitation year doubles that of the smallest precipitation year. We also find that spring precipitation in Southwest China experienced a few abrupt changes: sudden increase at 1966, sudden decrease at 1979, and sudden increase at 1995. We speculate that the spring precipitation will increase gradually in the next two decades.

Improved daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grimm, J.W.; Lynch, J.A.

2005-01-01

Daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models were developed for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (USA) using a linear least-squares regression approach and precipitation chemistry data from 29 National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites. Only weekly samples that comprised a single precipitation event were used in model development. The most significant variables in both ammonium and nitrate models included: precipitation volume, the number of days since the last event, a measure of seasonality, latitude, and the proportion of land within 8 km covered by forest or devoted to industry and transportation. Additional variables included in the nitrate model were the proportion of land within 0.8 km covered by water and/or forest. Local and regional ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions were not as well correlated as land cover. Modeled concentrations compared very well with event chemistry data collected at six NADP/AirMoN sites within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Wet deposition estimates were also consistent with observed deposition at selected sites. Accurately describing the spatial distribution of precipitation volume throughout the watershed is important in providing critical estimates of wet-fall deposition of ammonium and nitrate. - A linear least-squares regression approach was used to develop daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Influence of austenite grain size on recrystallisation-precipitation interaction in a V-microalloyed steel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quispe, A.; Medina, S.F.; Gomez, M.; Chaves, J.I.

2007-01-01

By means of torsion tests using small specimens, the influence of austenite grain size on strain induced precipitation kinetics has been determined in a vanadium microalloyed steel. Determination of recrystallisation-precipitation-time-temperature (RPTT) diagrams for two austenite grain sizes allows values of the aforementioned magnitudes to be determined. An ample discussion is made of the quantitative influence found and its relation with nucleation and growth mechanisms of precipitates. The results are compared with the quantitative influence exerted by the other variables, reaching the conclusion that the austenite grain size has a notable influence on strain induced precipitation kinetics which should not be underestimated. Finally, the influence of austenite grain size is included in a strain induced precipitation model constructed by the authors of this work and which also takes into account the other aforementioned variables

Improved daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Science.gov (United States)

Grimm, J W; Lynch, J A

2005-06-01

Daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models were developed for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (USA) using a linear least-squares regression approach and precipitation chemistry data from 29 National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites. Only weekly samples that comprised a single precipitation event were used in model development. The most significant variables in both ammonium and nitrate models included: precipitation volume, the number of days since the last event, a measure of seasonality, latitude, and the proportion of land within 8km covered by forest or devoted to industry and transportation. Additional variables included in the nitrate model were the proportion of land within 0.8km covered by water and/or forest. Local and regional ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions were not as well correlated as land cover. Modeled concentrations compared very well with event chemistry data collected at six NADP/AirMoN sites within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Wet deposition estimates were also consistent with observed deposition at selected sites. Accurately describing the spatial distribution of precipitation volume throughout the watershed is important in providing critical estimates of wet-fall deposition of ammonium and nitrate.

Describing the interannual variability of precipitation with the derived distribution approach: effects of record length and resolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. I. Meier

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Interannual variability of precipitation is traditionally described by fitting a probability model to yearly precipitation totals. There are three potential problems with this approach: a long record (at least 25–30 years is required in order to fit the model, years with missing rainfall data cannot be used, and the data need to be homogeneous, i.e., one has to assume stationarity. To overcome some of these limitations, we test an alternative methodology proposed by Eagleson (1978, based on the derived distribution (DD approach. It allows estimation of the probability density function (pdf of annual rainfall without requiring long records, provided that continuously gauged precipitation data are available to derive external storm properties. The DD approach combines marginal pdfs for storm depths and inter-arrival times to obtain an analytical formulation of the distribution of annual precipitation, under the simplifying assumptions of independence between events and independence between storm depth and time to the next storm. Because it is based on information about storms and not on annual totals, the DD can make use of information from years with incomplete data; more importantly, only a few years of rainfall measurements should suffice to estimate the parameters of the marginal pdfs, at least at locations where it rains with some regularity. For two temperate locations in different climates (Concepción, Chile, and Lugano, Switzerland, we randomly resample shortened time series to evaluate in detail the effects of record length on the DD, comparing the results with the traditional approach of fitting a normal (or lognormal distribution. Then, at the same two stations, we assess the biases introduced in the DD when using daily totalized rainfall, instead of continuously gauged data. Finally, for randomly selected periods between 3 and 15 years in length, we conduct full blind tests at 52 high-quality gauging stations in Switzerland

Investigating precipitation changes of anthropic origin: data and methodological issues

Science.gov (United States)

de Lima, Isabel; Lovejoy, Shaun

2017-04-01

There is much concern about the social, environmental and economic impacts of climate change that could result directly from changes in temperature and precipitation. For temperature, the situation is better understood; but despite the many studies that have been already dedicated to precipitation, change in this process - that could be associated to the transition to the Anthropocene - has not yet been convincingly proven. A large fraction of those studies have been exploring temporal (linear) trends in local precipitation, sometimes using records over only a few decades; other fewer studies have been dedicated to investigating global precipitation change. Overall, precipitation change of anthropic origin has showed to be difficult to establish with high statistical significance and, moreover, different data and products have displayed important discrepancies; this is valid even for global precipitation. We argue that the inadequate resolution and length of the data commonly used, as well as methodological issues, are among the main factors limiting the ability to identify the signature of change in precipitation. We propose several ways in which one can hope to improve the situation - or at least - clarify the difficulties. From the point of view of statistical analysis, the problem is one of detecting a low frequency anthropogenic signal in the presence of "noise" - the natural variability (the latter includes both internal dynamics and responses to volcanic, solar or other natural forcings). A consequence is that as one moves to longer and longer time scales, fluctuations are increasingly averaged and at some point, the anthropogenic signal will stand out above the natural variability noise. This approach can be systematized using scaling fluctuation analysis to characterizing different precipitation scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate - from higher to lower frequencies; in the anthropocene, the macroweather regime covers the range of time scales

Comparison of the Spatiotemporal Variability of Temperature, Precipitation, and Maximum Daily Spring Flows in Two Watersheds in Quebec Characterized by Different Land Use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali A. Assani

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We compared the spatiotemporal variability of temperatures and precipitation with that of the magnitude and timing of maximum daily spring flows in the geographically adjacent L’Assomption River (agricultural and Matawin River (forested watersheds during the period from 1932 to 2013. With regard to spatial variability, fall, winter, and spring temperatures as well as total precipitation are higher in the agricultural watershed than in the forested one. The magnitude of maximum daily spring flows is also higher in the first watershed as compared with the second, owing to substantial runoff, given that the amount of snow that gives rise to these flows is not significantly different in the two watersheds. These flows occur early in the season in the agricultural watershed because of the relatively high temperatures. With regard to temporal variability, minimum temperatures increased over time in both watersheds. Maximum temperatures in the fall only increased in the agricultural watershed. The amount of spring rain increased over time in both watersheds, whereas total precipitation increased significantly in the agricultural watershed only. However, the amount of snow decreased in the forested watershed. The magnitude of maximum daily spring flows increased over time in the forested watershed.

Spatio-temporal patterns of the effects of precipitation variability and land use/cover changes on long-term changes in sediment yield in the Loess Plateau, China

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Guangyao; Zhang, Jianjun; Liu, Yu; Ning, Zheng; Fu, Bojie; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2017-09-01

Within China's Loess Plateau there have been concerted revegetation efforts and engineering measures since the 1950s aimed at reducing soil erosion and land degradation. As a result, annual streamflow, sediment yield, and sediment concentration have all decreased considerably. Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) was the dominant factor, contributing over 70 % of the sediment load reduction, whereas the contribution of precipitation was less than 30 %. In this study, we use 50-year time series data (1961-2011), showing decreasing trends in the annual sediment loads of 15 catchments, to generate spatio-temporal patterns in the effects of LUCC and precipitation variability on sediment yield. The space-time variability of sediment yield was expressed notionally as a product of two factors representing (i) the effect of precipitation and (ii) the fraction of treated land surface area. Under minimal LUCC, the square root of annual sediment yield varied linearly with precipitation, with the precipitation-sediment load relationship showing coherent spatial patterns amongst the catchments. As the LUCC increased and took effect, the changes in sediment yield pattern depended more on engineering measures and vegetation restoration campaign, and the within-year rainfall patterns (especially storm events) also played an important role. The effect of LUCC is expressed in terms of a sediment coefficient, i.e., the ratio of annual sediment yield to annual precipitation. Sediment coefficients showed a steady decrease over the study period, following a linear decreasing function of the fraction of treated land surface area. In this way, the study has brought out the separate roles of precipitation variability and LUCC in controlling spatio-temporal patterns of sediment yield at catchment scale.

Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Serbia for the period 1961-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Milovanović, Boško; Schuster, Phillip; Radovanović, Milan; Vakanjac, Vesna Ristić; Schneider, Christoph

2017-10-01

Monthly, seasonal and annual sums of precipitation in Serbia were analysed in this paper for the period 1961-2010. Latitude, longitude and altitude of 421 precipitation stations and terrain features in their close environment (slope and aspect of terrain within a radius of 10 km around the station) were used to develop a regression model on which spatial distribution of precipitation was calculated. The spatial distribution of annual, June (maximum values for almost all of the stations) and February (minimum values for almost all of the stations) precipitation is presented. Annual precipitation amounts ranged from 500 to 600 mm to over 1100 mm. June precipitation ranged from 60 to 140 mm and February precipitation from 30 to 100 mm. The validation results expressed as root mean square error (RMSE) for monthly sums ranged from 3.9 mm in October (7.5% of the average precipitation for this month) to 6.2 mm in April (10.4%). For seasonal sums, RMSE ranged from 10.4 mm during autumn (6.1% of the average precipitation for this season) to 20.5 mm during winter (13.4%). On the annual scale, RMSE was 68 mm (9.5% of the average amount of precipitation). We further analysed precipitation trends using Sen's estimation, while the Mann-Kendall test was used for testing the statistical significance of the trends. For most parts of Serbia, the mean annual precipitation trends fell between -5 and +5 and +5 and +15 mm/decade. June precipitation trends were mainly between -8 and +8 mm/decade. February precipitation trends generally ranged from -3 to +3 mm/decade.

Spatial and temporal relationships between precipitation and ANPP of four types of grasslands in northern China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

GUO Ran; WANG Xiao-ke; OUYANG Zhi-yun; LI Ying-nian

2006-01-01

Precipitation is considered to be the primary resource limiting terrestrial biological activity in water-limited regions. Its overriding effect on the production of grassland is complex. In this paper, field data of 48 sites (including temperate meadow steppe,temperate steppe, temperate desert steppe and alpine meadow) were gathered from 31 published papers and monographs to analyze the relationship between above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation by the method of regression analysis. The results indicated that there was a great difference between spatial pattern and temporal pattern by which precipitation influenced grassland ANPP. Mean annual precipitation (MAP) was the main factor determining spatial distribution of grassland ANPP (r2 = 0.61,P ＜ 0.01); while temporally, no significant relationship was found between the variance of AN PP and inter-annual precipitation for the four types of grassland. However, after dividing annual precipitation into monthly value and taking time lag effect into account, the study found significant relationships between ANPP and precipitation. For the temperate meadow steppe, the key variable determining inter-annual change of ANPP was last August-May precipitation (r2= 0.47, P = 0.01); for the temperate steppe, the key variable was July precipitation (r2= 0.36, P = 0.02); for the temperate desert steppe, the key variable was April-June precipitation (r2= 0.51, P ＜0.01); for the alpine meadow, the key variable was last September-May precipitation (r2 = 0.29, P ＜ 0.05). In comparison with analogous research, the study demonstrated that the key factor determining inter-annual changes of grassland ANPP was the cumulative precipitation in certain periods of that year or the previous year.

Precipitation of ammonium diuranate : a study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krishnamoorthy, T.S.; Mahadevan, N.; Sankar Das, M.

1991-01-01

The precipitation of ammonium diuranate (ADU) forms the first step in the production of UO 2 fuel for reactors, and hence the quality and consistency of the ADU precipitate is very important in industrial operations. An investigation, on the precipitation of ADU, was carried out under conditions similar to those in industrial production, to evaluate the effect of various variables on the consistency and the quality of ADU. The variables studied were concentration of uranium and ammonia, pH, temperature and form of ammonia (gas or solution). The properties studied were the settling rate of the precipitates, surface area of the ADUs and calcined oxides and compositional characteristics of the ADUs. Multifactorial experiments and ruggedness tests were applied to identify the parameters to which the precipitation process is most vulnerable, so that such parameters may be controlled effectively. Besides, the effect and the importance of equilibrium conditions during the precipitation process, on the quality of the final ADU, was also established. The paper presents the results of these studies. (author). 6 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

Quantitative precipitation estimation in complex orography using quasi-vertical profiles of dual polarization radar variables

Science.gov (United States)

Montopoli, Mario; Roberto, Nicoletta; Adirosi, Elisa; Gorgucci, Eugenio; Baldini, Luca

2017-04-01

Weather radars are nowadays a unique tool to estimate quantitatively the rain precipitation near the surface. This is an important task for a plenty of applications. For example, to feed hydrological models, mitigate the impact of severe storms at the ground using radar information in modern warning tools as well as aid the validation studies of satellite-based rain products. With respect to the latter application, several ground validation studies of the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) products have recently highlighted the importance of accurate QPE from ground-based weather radars. To date, a plenty of works analyzed the performance of various QPE algorithms making use of actual and synthetic experiments, possibly trained by measurement of particle size distributions and electromagnetic models. Most of these studies support the use of dual polarization variables not only to ensure a good level of radar data quality but also as a direct input in the rain estimation equations. Among others, one of the most important limiting factors in radar QPE accuracy is the vertical variability of particle size distribution that affects at different levels, all the radar variables acquired as well as rain rates. This is particularly impactful in mountainous areas where the altitudes of the radar sampling is likely several hundred of meters above the surface. In this work, we analyze the impact of the vertical profile variations of rain precipitation on several dual polarization radar QPE algorithms when they are tested a in complex orography scenario. So far, in weather radar studies, more emphasis has been given to the extrapolation strategies that make use of the signature of the vertical profiles in terms of radar co-polar reflectivity. This may limit the use of the radar vertical profiles when dual polarization QPE algorithms are considered because in that case all the radar variables used in the rain estimation process should be consistently extrapolated at the surface

El Nino-like Teleconnection Increases California Precipitation in Response to Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, R.

2017-12-01

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Nino teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Nino-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

Analysis of air mass trajectories to explain observed variability of tritium in precipitation at the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory, California, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Visser, Ate; Thaw, Melissa; Esser, Brad

2018-01-01

Understanding the behavior of tritium, a radioactive isotope of hydrogen, in the environment is important to evaluate the exposure risk of anthropogenic releases, and for its application as a tracer in hydrology and oceanography. To understand and predict the variability of tritium in precipitation, HYSPLIT air mass trajectories were analyzed for 16 aggregate precipitation samples collected over a 2 year period at irregular intervals at a research site located at 2000 m elevation in the southern Sierra Nevada (California, USA). Attributing the variation in tritium to specific source areas confirms the hypothesis that higher latitude or inland sources bring higher tritium levels in precipitation than precipitation originating in the lower latitude Pacific Ocean. In this case, the source of precipitation accounts for 79% of the variation observed in tritium concentrations. Air mass trajectory analysis is a promising tool to improve the predictions of tritium in precipitation at unmonitored locations and thoroughly understand the processes controlling transport of tritium in the environment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changing characteristics and spatial differentiation of spring precipitation in Southwest China during 1961–2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Hong-Lan; Zhang Qiang; Zhang Jun-Guo; Hu Wen-Chao; Guo Jun-Qin; Wang Sheng

2015-01-01

In this study, we analyze spring precipitation from 92 meteorological stations spanning between 1961 and 2012 to understand temporal–spatial variability and change of spring precipitation over Southwest China. Various analysis methods are used for different purposes, including empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and rotated EOF (REOF) for analyzing spatial structure change of precipitation anomaly, and the Mann–Kendall testing method to determine whether there were abrupt changes during the analyzed time span. We find that the first spatial mode of the precipitation has a domain uniform structure; the second is dominated by a spatial dipole; and the third contains five variability centers. The 2000s is the decade with the largest amount of precipitation while the 1990s is the decade with the smallest amount of precipitation. The year-to-year difference of that region is large: the amount of the largest precipitation year doubles that of the smallest precipitation year. We also find that spring precipitation in Southwest China experienced a few abrupt changes: a sudden increase at 1966, a sudden decrease at 1979, and a sudden increase at 1995. We speculate that the spring precipitation will increase gradually in the next two decades. (paper)

Relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation in Singapore during 1980-2013

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

2017-04-01

Observed studies on inter-annual variation of precipitation provide insight into the response of precipitation to anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. Inter-annual variation of precipitation results from the concurrent variations of precipitation frequency and intensity, understanding of the relative importance of frequency and intensity in the variability of precipitation can help fathom its changing properties. Investigation of the long-term changes of precipitation schemes has been extensively carried out in many regions across the world, however, detailed studies of the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation are still limited, especially in the tropics. Therefore, this study presents a comprehensive framework to investigate the inter-annual variation of precipitation and the dominance of precipitation frequency and intensity in a tropical urban city-state, Singapore, based on long-term (1980-2013) daily precipitation series from 22 rain gauges. First, an iterative Mann-Kendall trend test method is applied to detect long-term trends in precipitation total, frequency and intensity at both annual and seasonal time scales. Then, the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inducing the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation total is analyzed using a dominance analysis method based on linear regression. The results show statistically significant upward trends in wet-day precipitation total, frequency and intensity at annual time scale, however, these trends are not evident during the monsoon seasons. The inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation intensity for most of the stations at annual time scale and during the Northeast monsoon season. However, during the Southwest monsoon season, the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation frequency. These results have

Models of simulation and prediction of the behavior of dengue in four Colombian cities, including climate like modulating variable of the disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia Giraldo, Jairo A; Boshell, Jose Francisco

2004-01-01

ARIMA-type models are proposed to simulate the behavior of dengue and to make apparent the relations with the climatic variability in four localities of Colombia. The climatic variable was introduced into the models as an index that modulates the behavior of the disease. It was obtained by means of a multivariate analysis of principal components. The investigation was carried out with information corresponding to the epidemiological weeks from January 1997 to December 2000, for both the number of disease cases and the data corresponding to the meteorological variables. The study shows that the variations of the climate between the previous 9 to 14 weeks have influence on the appearance of new cases of dengue. In particular, the precipitation in these weeks was seen to be greater when in later periods the disease presented epidemic characteristics than the precipitation in those weeks preceded the disease within endemic limits

Evaporation-precipitation variability over Indian Ocean and its assessment in NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pokhrel, Samir; Parekh, Anant; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Dhakate, Ashish; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Rahaman, Hasibur [Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad (India); Gairola, Rakesh Mohan [Space Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad (India)

2012-11-15

An attempt has been made to explore all the facets of Evaporation-Precipitation (E-P) distribution and variability over the Indian Ocean (IO) basin using Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) data and subsequently a thorough assessment of the latest version of National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version-2 is done. This study primarily focuses on two fundamental issues, first, the core issue of pervasive cold SST bias in the CFS simulation in the context of moisture flux exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean and second, the fidelity of the model in simulating mean and variability of E-P and its elemental components associated with the climatic anomalies occurring over the Indian and the Pacific ocean basin. Valuation of evaporation and precipitation, the two integral component of E-P, along with the similar details of wind speed, air-sea humidity difference ({Delta}Q) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are performed. CFS simulation is vitiated by the presence of basin wide systematic positive bias in evaporation, {Delta}Q and similar negative bias in wind speed and SST. Bifurcation of the evaporation bias into its components reveals that bias in air humidity (Q{sub a}) is basically responsible for the presence of pervasive positive evaporation bias. The regions where CFS does not adhere to the observed wind-evaporation and Q{sub a} -evaporation relation was found to lie over the northern Arabian Sea (AS), the western Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the western Equatorial IO. Evaporation bias is found to control a significant quantum of cold SST bias over most of the basin owing to its intimate association with SST in a coupled feedback system. This area is stretched over the almost entire north IO, north of 15 {sup circle} S excluding a small equatorial strip, where the evaporation bias may essentially explain 20-100 % of cold SST bias. This percentage is maximum over the western IO, central AS and BoB. The CFS

The Signature of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Antarctic Precipitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Gareth J; Thompson, David W J; van den Broeke, Michiel R

2017-11-28

We provide the first comprehensive analysis of the relationships between large-scale patterns of Southern Hemisphere climate variability and the detailed structure of Antarctic precipitation. We examine linkages between the high spatial resolution precipitation from a regional atmospheric model and four patterns of large-scale Southern Hemisphere climate variability: the southern baroclinic annular mode, the southern annular mode, and the two Pacific-South American teleconnection patterns. Variations in all four patterns influence the spatial configuration of precipitation over Antarctica, consistent with their signatures in high-latitude meridional moisture fluxes. They impact not only the mean but also the incidence of extreme precipitation events. Current coupled-climate models are able to reproduce all four patterns of atmospheric variability but struggle to correctly replicate their regional impacts on Antarctic climate. Thus, linking these patterns directly to Antarctic precipitation variability may allow a better estimate of future changes in precipitation than using model output alone.

Fluctuations in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean conditions associated with the dominant modes of wintertime precipitation variability for the contiguous United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitchell, T.P.; Blier, W.

1994-01-01

The historical Climatic Division record of monthly- and seasonal-mean wintertime precipitation totals are analyzed to document the dominant patterns of precipitation variability for the contiguous United States. The analysis technique employed is the Rotated Principal Component analysis. Time series for the leading patterns are related to global sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and to gridded surface and upper-air analyses for the Northern Hemisphere

Sensitivity of Sahelian Precipitation to Desert Dust under ENSO variability: a regional modeling study

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, A.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2016-12-01

Mineral dust is estimated to comprise over half the total global aerosol burden, with a majority coming from the Sahara and Sahel region. Bounded by the Sahara Desert to the north and the Sahelian Savannah to the south, the Sahel experiences high interannual rainfall variability and a short rainy season during the boreal summer months. Observation-based data for the past three decades indicates a reduced dust emission trend, together with an increase in greening and surface roughness within the Sahel. Climate models used to study regional precipitation changes due to Saharan dust yield varied results, both in sign convention and magnitude. Inconsistency of model estimates drives future climate projections for the region that are highly varied and uncertain. We use the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to quantify the interaction and feedback between desert dust aerosol and Sahelian precipitation. Using nested domains at fine spatial resolution we resolve changes to mesoscale atmospheric circulation patterns due to dust, for representative phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NU-WRF regional earth system model offers both advanced land surface data and resolvable detail of the mechanisms of the impact of Saharan dust. Results are compared to our previous work assessed over the Western Sahel using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2Mc global climate model, and to other previous regional climate model studies. This prompts further research to help explain the dust-precipitation relationship and recent North African dust emission trends. This presentation will offer a quantitative analysis of differences in radiation budget, energy and moisture fluxes, and atmospheric dynamics due to desert dust aerosol over the Sahel.

Assessing Changes in Precipitation and Impacts on Groundwater in Southeastern Brazil using Regional Hydroclimate Reconstruction

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, A.; Fernandes, M.; Silva, G. C., Jr.

2017-12-01

Aquifers can be key players in regional water resources. Precipitation infiltration is the most relevant process in recharging the aquifers. In that regard, understanding precipitation changes and impacts on the hydrological cycle helps in the assessment of groundwater availability from the aquifers. Regional modeling systems can provide precipitation, near-surface air temperature, together with soil moisture at different ground levels from coupled land-surface schemes. More accurate those variables are better the evaluation of the precipitation impact on the groundwater. Downscaling of global reanalysis very often employs regional modeling systems, in order to give more detailed information for impact assessment studies at regional scales. In particular, the regional modeling system, Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), might improve the accuracy of hydrometeorological variables in regions with spatial and temporal scarcity of in-situ observations. SRDAS combines assimilation of precipitation estimates from gauge-corrected satellite-based products with spectral nudging technique. The SRDAS hourly outputs provide monthly means of atmospheric and land-surface variables, including precipitation, used in the calculations of the hydrological budget terms. Results show the impact of changes in precipitation on groundwater in the aquifer located near the southeastern coastline of Brazil, through the assessment of the water-cycle terms, using a hydrological model during dry and rainy periods found in the 15-year numerical integration of SRDAS.

Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Aizebeokhai

largely mimic the projected changes in precipitation. Increased precipitation intensity and variability is projected to increase the risks of flooding in many coastal areas, and drought in many arid and semi-arid regions. Higher water temperatures and changes in extremes, including floods and droughts, are projected to affect.

A Precipitation Climatology of the Snowy Mountains, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Theobald, Alison; McGowan, Hamish; Speirs, Johanna

2014-05-01

The precipitation that falls in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia provides critical water resources for hydroelectric power generation. Water storages in this region are also a major source of agricultural irrigation, environmental flows, and offer a degree of flood protection for some of the major river systems in Australia. Despite this importance, there remains a knowledge gap regarding the long-term, historic variability of the synoptic weather systems that deliver precipitation to the region. This research aims to increase the understanding of long-term variations in precipitation-bearing weather systems resulting in runoff into the Snowy Mountains catchments and reservoirs, and the way in which these are influenced by large-scale climate drivers. Here we present initial results on the development of a climatology of precipitation-bearing synoptic weather systems (synoptic typology), spanning a period of over 100 years. The synoptic typology is developed from the numerical weather model re-analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), in conjunction with regional precipitation and temperature data from a network of private gauges. Given the importance of surface, mid- and upper-air patterns on seasonal precipitation, the synoptic typing will be based on a range of meteorological variables throughout the depth of the troposphere, highlighting the importance of different atmospheric levels on the development and steering of synoptic precipitation bearing systems. The temporal and spatial variability of these synoptic systems, their response to teleconnection forcings and their contribution to inflow generation in the headwater catchments of the Snowy Mountains will be investigated. The resulting climatology will provide new understanding of the drivers of regional-scale precipitation variability at inter- and intra-annual timescales. It will enable greater understanding of how variability in synoptic scale

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) L-6

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Neeck, Steven P.; Kakar, Ramesh K.; Azarbarzin, Ardeshir A.; Hou, Arthur Y.

2013-10-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission will advance the measurement of global precipitation, making possible high spatial resolution precipitation measurements. GPM will provide the first opportunity to calibrate measurements of global precipitation across tropical, mid-latitude, and polar regions. The GPM mission has the following scientific objectives: (1) Advance precipitation measurement capability from space through combined use of active and passive remote-sensing techniques; (2) Advance understanding of global water/energy cycle variability and fresh water availability; (3) Improve climate prediction by providing the foundation for better understanding of surface water fluxes, soil moisture storage, cloud/precipitation microphysics and latent heat release in the Earth's atmosphere; (4) Advance Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) skills through more accurate and frequent measurements of instantaneous rain rates; and (5) Improve high impact natural hazard (flood/drought, landslide, and hurricane hazard) prediction capabilities. The GPM mission centers on the deployment of a Core Observatory carrying an advanced radar / radiometer system to measure precipitation from space and serve as a reference standard to unify precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational satellites. GPM, jointly led with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), involves a partnership with other international space agencies including the French Centre National d'Études Spatiales (CNES), the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), and others. The GPM Core Observatory is currently being prepared for shipment to Japan for launch. Launch is scheduled for February 2014 from JAXA's Tanegashima Space Center on an H-IIA 202 launch vehicle.

Spatio-temporal patterns of the effects of precipitation variability and land use/cover changes on long-term changes in sediment yield in the Loess Plateau, China

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G. Gao

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Within China's Loess Plateau there have been concerted revegetation efforts and engineering measures since the 1950s aimed at reducing soil erosion and land degradation. As a result, annual streamflow, sediment yield, and sediment concentration have all decreased considerably. Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC was the dominant factor, contributing over 70 % of the sediment load reduction, whereas the contribution of precipitation was less than 30 %. In this study, we use 50-year time series data (1961–2011, showing decreasing trends in the annual sediment loads of 15 catchments, to generate spatio-temporal patterns in the effects of LUCC and precipitation variability on sediment yield. The space–time variability of sediment yield was expressed notionally as a product of two factors representing (i the effect of precipitation and (ii the fraction of treated land surface area. Under minimal LUCC, the square root of annual sediment yield varied linearly with precipitation, with the precipitation–sediment load relationship showing coherent spatial patterns amongst the catchments. As the LUCC increased and took effect, the changes in sediment yield pattern depended more on engineering measures and vegetation restoration campaign, and the within-year rainfall patterns (especially storm events also played an important role. The effect of LUCC is expressed in terms of a sediment coefficient, i.e., the ratio of annual sediment yield to annual precipitation. Sediment coefficients showed a steady decrease over the study period, following a linear decreasing function of the fraction of treated land surface area. In this way, the study has brought out the separate roles of precipitation variability and LUCC in controlling spatio-temporal patterns of sediment yield at catchment scale.

CalWater 2 - Precipitation, Aerosols, and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers Experiment

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Spackman, J. R.; Ralph, F. M.; Prather, K. A.; Cayan, D. R.; DeMott, P. J.; Dettinger, M. D.; Fairall, C. W.; Leung, L. R.; Rosenfeld, D.; Rutledge, S. A.; Waliser, D. E.; White, A. B.

2014-12-01

Emerging research has identified two phenomena that play key roles in the variability of the water supply and the incidence of extreme precipitation events along the West Coast of the United States. These phenomena include the role of (1) atmospheric rivers (ARs) in delivering much of the precipitation associated with major storms along the U.S. West Coast, and (2) aerosols—from local sources as well as those transported from remote continents—and their modulating effects on western U.S. precipitation. A better understanding of these processes is needed to reduce uncertainties in weather predictions and climate projections of extreme precipitation and its effects, including the provision of beneficial water supply. This presentation summarizes the science objectives and strategies to address gaps associated with (1) the evolution and structure of ARs including cloud and precipitation processes and air-sea interaction, and (2) aerosol interaction with ARs and the impact on precipitation, including locally-generated aerosol effects on orographic precipitation along the U.S. West Coast. Observations are proposed for multiple winter seasons as part of a 5-year broad interagency vision referred to as CalWater 2 to address these science gaps (http://esrl.noaa.gov/psd/calwater). In January-February 2015, a field campaign has been planned consisting of a targeted set of aircraft and ship-based measurements and associated evaluation of data in near-shore regions of California and in the eastern Pacific. In close coordination with NOAA, DOE's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program is also contributing air and shipborne facilities for ACAPEX (ARM Cloud Aerosol and Precipitation Experiment), a DOE-sponsored study complementing CalWater 2. Ground-based measurements from NOAA's HydroMeteorological Testbed (HMT) network in California and aerosol chemical instrumentation at Bodega Bay, California have been designed to add important near surface-level context for the

The influence of sea- and land-breeze circulations on the diurnal variability in precipitation over a tropical island

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L. Zhu

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This study examines the diurnal variation in precipitation over Hainan Island in the South China Sea using gauge observations from 1951 to 2012 and Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique (CMORPH satellite estimates from 2006 to 2015, as well as numerical simulations. The simulations are the first to use climatological mean initial and lateral boundary conditions to study the dynamic and thermodynamic processes (and the impacts of land–sea breeze circulations that control the rainfall distribution and climatology. Precipitation is most significant from April to October and exhibits a strong diurnal cycle resulting from land–sea breeze circulations. More than 60 % of the total annual precipitation over the island is attributable to the diurnal cycle with a significant monthly variability. The CMORPH and gauge datasets agree well, except that the CMORPH data underestimate precipitation and have a 1 h peak delay. The diurnal cycle of the rainfall and the related land–sea breeze circulations during May and June were well captured by convection-permitting numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model, which were initiated from a 10-year average ERA-Interim reanalysis. The simulations have a slight overestimation of rainfall amounts and a 1 h delay in peak rainfall time. The diurnal cycle of precipitation is driven by the occurrence of moist convection around noontime owing to low-level convergence associated with the sea-breeze circulations. The precipitation intensifies rapidly thereafter and peaks in the afternoon with the collisions of sea-breeze fronts from different sides of the island. Cold pools of the convective storms contribute to the inland propagation of the sea breeze. Generally, precipitation dissipates quickly in the evening due to the cooling and stabilization of the lower troposphere and decrease of boundary layer moisture. Interestingly, the rather high island orography is not a

An underestimated role of precipitation frequency in regulating summer soil moisture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Chaoyang; Chen, Jing M; Pumpanen, Jukka; Cescatti, Alessandro; Marcolla, Barbara; Blanken, Peter D; Ardö, Jonas; Tang, Yanhong; Magliulo, Vincenzo; Georgiadis, Teodoro; Soegaard, Henrik; Cook, David R; Harding, Richard J

2012-01-01

Soil moisture induced droughts are expected to become more frequent under future global climate change. Precipitation has been previously assumed to be mainly responsible for variability in summer soil moisture. However, little is known about the impacts of precipitation frequency on summer soil moisture, either interannually or spatially. To better understand the temporal and spatial drivers of summer drought, 415 site yr measurements observed at 75 flux sites world wide were used to analyze the temporal and spatial relationships between summer soil water content (SWC) and the precipitation frequencies at various temporal scales, i.e., from half-hourly, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h measurements. Summer precipitation was found to be an indicator of interannual SWC variability with r of 0.49 (p < 0.001) for the overall dataset. However, interannual variability in summer SWC was also significantly correlated with the five precipitation frequencies and the sub-daily precipitation frequencies seemed to explain the interannual SWC variability better than the total of precipitation. Spatially, all these precipitation frequencies were better indicators of summer SWC than precipitation totals, but these better performances were only observed in non-forest ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that precipitation frequency may play an important role in regulating both interannual and spatial variations of summer SWC, which has probably been overlooked or underestimated. However, the spatial interpretation should carefully consider other factors, such as the plant functional types and soil characteristics of diverse ecoregions. (letter)

Synoptic Drivers of Precipitation in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, L.; Hudson, S.; Graham, R.; Renwick, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in the Arctic has been shown to be increasing in recent decades, from both observational and modelling studies, with largest trends seen in autumn and winter. This trend is attributed to a combination of the warming atmosphere and reduced sea ice extent. The seasonality of precipitation in the Arctic is important as it largely determines whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain. This study assesses the spatial and temporal variability of the synoptic drivers of precipitation in the Atlantic (European) sector of the Arctic. This region of the Arctic is of particular interest as it has the largest inter-annual variability in sea ice extent and is the primary pathway for moisture transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. This study uses the ECMWF ERA-I reanalysis total precipitation to compare to long-term precipitation observations from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard to show that the reanalysis captures the synoptic variability of precipitation well and that most precipitation in this region is synoptically driven. The annual variability of precipitation in the Atlantic Arctic shows strong regionality. In the Svalbard and Barents Sea region, most of the annual total precipitation occurs during autumn and winter (Oct-Mar) (>60% of annual total), while the high-Arctic (> 80N) and Kara Sea receives most of the annual precipitation ( 60% of annual total) during summer (July-Sept). Using a synoptic classification developed for this region, this study shows that winter precipitation is driven by winter cyclone occurrence, with strong correlations to the AO and NAO indices. High precipitation over Svalbard is also strongly correlated with the Scandinavian blocking pattern, which produces a southerly flow in the Greenland Sea/Svalbard area. An increasing occurrence of these synoptic patterns are seen for winter months (Nov and Jan), which may explain much of the observed winter increase in precipitation.

A global gridded dataset of daily precipitation going back to 1950, ideal for analysing precipitation extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Contractor, S.; Donat, M.; Alexander, L. V.

2017-12-01

Reliable observations of precipitation are necessary to determine past changes in precipitation and validate models, allowing for reliable future projections. Existing gauge based gridded datasets of daily precipitation and satellite based observations contain artefacts and have a short length of record, making them unsuitable to analyse precipitation extremes. The largest limiting factor for the gauge based datasets is a dense and reliable station network. Currently, there are two major data archives of global in situ daily rainfall data, first is Global Historical Station Network (GHCN-Daily) hosted by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the other by Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) part of the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD). We combine the two data archives and use automated quality control techniques to create a reliable long term network of raw station data, which we then interpolate using block kriging to create a global gridded dataset of daily precipitation going back to 1950. We compare our interpolated dataset with existing global gridded data of daily precipitation: NOAA Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) Global V1.0 and GPCC Full Data Daily Version 1.0, as well as various regional datasets. We find that our raw station density is much higher than other datasets. To avoid artefacts due to station network variability, we provide multiple versions of our dataset based on various completeness criteria, as well as provide the standard deviation, kriging error and number of stations for each grid cell and timestep to encourage responsible use of our dataset. Despite our efforts to increase the raw data density, the in situ station network remains sparse in India after the 1960s and in Africa throughout the timespan of the dataset. Our dataset would allow for more reliable global analyses of rainfall including its extremes and pave the way for better global precipitation observations with lower and more transparent uncertainties.

Characterization of flood and precipitation events in Southwestern Germany and stochastic simulation of extreme precipitation (Project FLORIS-SV)

Science.gov (United States)

Florian, Ehmele; Michael, Kunz

2016-04-01

Several major flood events occurred in Germany in the past 15-20 years especially in the eastern parts along the rivers Elbe and Danube. Examples include the major floods of 2002 and 2013 with an estimated loss of about 2 billion Euros each. The last major flood events in the State of Baden-Württemberg in southwest Germany occurred in the years 1978 and 1993/1994 along the rivers Rhine and Neckar with an estimated total loss of about 150 million Euros (converted) each. Flood hazard originates from a combination of different meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic processes. Currently there is no defined methodology available for evaluating and quantifying the flood hazard and related risk for larger areas or whole river catchments instead of single gauges. In order to estimate the probable maximum loss for higher return periods (e.g. 200 years, PML200), a stochastic model approach is designed since observational data are limited in time and space. In our approach, precipitation is linearly composed of three elements: background precipitation, orographically-induces precipitation, and a convectively-driven part. We use linear theory of orographic precipitation formation for the stochastic precipitation model (SPM), which is based on fundamental statistics of relevant atmospheric variables. For an adequate number of historic flood events, the corresponding atmospheric conditions and parameters are determined in order to calculate a probability density function (pdf) for each variable. This method involves all theoretically possible scenarios which may not have happened, yet. This work is part of the FLORIS-SV (FLOod RISk Sparkassen Versicherung) project and establishes the first step of a complete modelling chain of the flood risk. On the basis of the generated stochastic precipitation event set, hydrological and hydraulic simulations will be performed to estimate discharge and water level. The resulting stochastic flood event set will be used to quantify the

El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Robert J.; Luptowitz, Rainer

2017-07-01

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

Tropical Pacific forcing on decadal-to-centennial NAO-dominated precipitation variability in northern Mediterranean over the past 6500 years

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, H. M.; Shen, C. C.; Michel, V.; Jiang, X.; Mii, H. S.; Wang, Y.; Valensi, P.

2017-12-01

We present a multi-annual-resolved absolute-dated stalagmite-inferred precipitation record, with age precision as good as ±2 years, from northern Italy, to reflect North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dynamics since 6.5 ka (thousand years ago, before 1950 C.E.). Our record features millennial precipitation fluctuations punctuated by several centennial-scale drought periods centered at 5.6, 6.2, 4.2, 3.0 and 2.3 ka. The phase relationship with previous NAO-sensitive records suggests a multi-millennial southward migration of the northern Westerlies and enhanced NAO variability from the middle- to late-Holocene. We also found the multi-decadal to centennial rainfall amount could dramatically vary within few decades, possibly affecting ancient Mediterranean civilizations. Concurrence between northern Mediterranean precipitation and western tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records suggests the remote forcing on this NAO-dominated rainfall. We argue that the irregular NAO change nowadays could be related to high frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and might cause an inevitable abrupt hydroclimate change and irreparable impacts on the regional human society in the near future.

Reconstruction of precipitation variability in the Strait of Yucatan associated with latitudinal shifts in the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone since the Last Glacial Maximum

Science.gov (United States)

Staines-Urías, Francisca; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Fischel, Andrea; Kuijpers, Antoon

2017-04-01

The elemental composition of sediments from gravity core HOLOVAR11-03 provides a ca. 40 ka record of past climate variability in the Strait of Yucatan, between the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, a region where precipitation variability is determined by the seasonal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Within this region, sea level pressure decreases and rainfall increases as the ITCZ moves north of the equator in response to increased solar insolation in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer. In contrast, as the ITCZ retracts southward towards the equator during boreal winter, rainfall diminishes and the regional sea level pressure gradient strengthens. On interannual, multidecadal and millennial timescales, fluctuations in the average latitudinal position of the ITCZ in response to insolation forcing modulate the intensity and duration of the seasonal regimens, determining average regional precipitation and, ultimately, the elemental composition of the marine sedimentary record. Regionally, higher titanium and iron content in marine sediments reflect greater terrigenous input from inland runoff, indicating greater precipitation, hence a more northerly position of the ITCZ. Correspondingly, Ti and Fe concentration data were used to reconstruct regional rainfall variability since the Last Glacial Maxima (LGM ˜24 cal ka BP). HOLOVAR11-03 age model (based on 4 AMS 14C dates obtained from multi-specific samples of planktic foraminifera) shows stable sedimentation rates in the area throughout the cored period. Nonetheless, higher terrestrial mineral input is observed since the LGM and all through the last glacial termination (24 to 12 cal ka BP), indicating a period of increased precipitation. In contrast, lower Ti and Fe values are typical for the period between 12 and 8 cal ka BP, indicating reduced precipitation. A positive trend characterizes the following interval, showing a return to wetter conditions lasting until 5 cal ka BP

Climate change and precipitation: Detecting changes Climate change and precipitation: Detecting changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Boxel, John H

2001-01-01

Precipitation is one of the most, if not the most important climate parameter In most studies on climate change the emphasis is on temperature and sea level rise. Often too little attention is given to precipitation. For a large part this is due to the large spatial en temporal variability of precipitation, which makes the detection of changes difficult. This paper describes methods to detect changes in precipitation. In order to arrive at statistically significant changes one must use long time series and spatial averages containing the information from several stations. In the Netherlands the average yearly precipitation increased by 11% during the 20th century .In the temperate latitudes on the Northern Hemisphere (40-60QN) the average increase was about 7% over the 20th century and the globally averaged precipitation increased by about 3%. During the 20th century 38% of the land surface of the earth became wetter, 42% experienced little change (less than 5% change) and 20% became dryer. More important than the average precipitation is the occurrence of extremes. In the Netherlands there is a tendency to more extreme precipitations, whereas the occurrence of relatively dry months has not changed. Also in many other countries increases in heavy precipitation events are observed. All climate models predict a further increase of mean global precipitation if the carbon dioxide concentration doubles. Nevertheless some areas get dryer, others have little change and consequently there are also areas where the increase is much more than the global average. On a regional scale however there are large differences between the models. Climate models do not yet provide adequate information on changes in extreme precipitations

High Variability Is a Defining Component of Mediterranean-Climate Rivers and Their Biota

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Núria Cid

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Variability in flow as a result of seasonal precipitation patterns is a defining element of streams and rivers in Mediterranean-climate regions of the world and strongly influences the biota of these unique systems. Mediterranean-climate areas include the Mediterranean Basin and parts of Australia, California, Chile, and South Africa. Mediterranean streams and rivers can experience wet winters and consequent floods to severe droughts, when intermittency in otherwise perennial systems can occur. Inter-annual variation in precipitation can include multi-year droughts or consecutive wet years. Spatial variation in patterns of precipitation (rain vs. snow combined with topographic variability lead to spatial variability in hydrologic patterns that influence populations and communities. Mediterranean streams and rivers are global biodiversity hotspots and are particularly vulnerable to human impacts. Biomonitoring, conservation efforts, and management responses to climate change require approaches that account for spatial and temporal variability (including both intra- and inter-annual. The importance of long-term data sets for understanding and managing these systems highlights the need for sustained and coordinated research efforts in Mediterranean-climate streams and rivers.

Cesium removal and kinetics equilibrium: Precipitation kinetics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnes, M.J.

1999-01-01

This task consisted of both non-radioactive and radioactive (tracer) tests examining the influence of potentially significant variables on cesium tetraphenylborate precipitation kinetics. The work investigated the time required to reach cesium decontamination and the conditions that affect the cesium precipitation kinetics

Predictability of Precipitation Over the Conterminous U.S. Based on the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Mingkai; Felzer, Benjamin S.; Sahagian, Dork

2016-01-01

Characterizing precipitation seasonality and variability in the face of future uncertainty is important for a well-informed climate change adaptation strategy. Using the Colwell index of predictability and monthly normalized precipitation data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensembles, this study identifies spatial hotspots of changes in precipitation predictability in the United States under various climate scenarios. Over the historic period (1950–2005), the recurrent pattern of precipitation is highly predictable in the East and along the coastal Northwest, and is less so in the arid Southwest. Comparing the future (2040–2095) to the historic period, larger changes in precipitation predictability are observed under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 than those under RCP 4.5. Finally, there are region-specific hotspots of future changes in precipitation predictability, and these hotspots often coincide with regions of little projected change in total precipitation, with exceptions along the wetter East and parts of the drier central West. Therefore, decision-makers are advised to not rely on future total precipitation as an indicator of water resources. Changes in precipitation predictability and the subsequent changes on seasonality and variability are equally, if not more, important factors to be included in future regional environmental assessment. PMID:27425819

An objective daily Weather Type classification for Iberia since 1850; patterns, trends, variability and impact in precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Vaquero, J. M.; Gallego, M. C.; Valente, M. A.; Gimeno, L.

2009-04-01

the winter precipitation amount, observed on a daily basis. On the other hand, the three wettest WTs, namely the Cyclonic (C), South-westerly (SW) and Westerly (W) types, together representing roughly a third of all winter days, do account for more than 60% of the observed daily precipitation. It is shown that the large inter-annual variability of precipitation in both cities is highly related with the corresponding inter-annual variability of the wet WTs. Ansell, T. J. et al. (2006) Daily mean sea level pressure reconstructions for the European - North Atlantic region for the period 1850-2003, Journal of Climate, 19, 2717-2742, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3775.1 Huth R., Beck C., Philipp A., Demuzere M, Ustrnul Z, Cahynová M., Kyselý J., Tveito O.E. (2008) Classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns: recent advances and applications. Trends and Directions in Climate Research: Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1146:, 105-152 Jones, P. D. , M. Hulme , K. R. Briffa. (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification scheme. Int. J. Climatol. 13: 655- 663. Lorenzo M.N., Taboada J.J. and Gimeno L. (2008) Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). Int. J. Climatol. Published Online: Nov 12 2007 5:30AM DOI: 10.1002/joc.1646. Trigo R.M. and Da Camara C.C. (2000) Circulation weather types and their influence on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1559-1581.

Multi-proxy reconstructions of May–September precipitation field in China over the past 500 years

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F. Shi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The dominant modes of variability of precipitation for the whole of China over the past millennium and the mechanism governing their spatial structure remain unclear. This is mainly due to insufficient high-resolution proxy records of precipitation in western China. Numerous tree-ring chronologies have recently been archived in publicly available databases through PAGES2k activities, and these provide an opportunity to refine precipitation field reconstructions for China. Based on 479 proxy records, including 371 tree-ring width chronologies, a tree-ring isotope chronology, and 107 drought/flood indices, we reconstruct the precipitation field for China for the past half millennium using the optimal information extraction method. A total of 3631 of 4189 grid points in the reconstruction field passed the cross-validation process, accounting for 86.68 % of the total number of grid points. The first leading mode of variability of the reconstruction shows coherent variations over most of China. The second mode is a north–south dipole in eastern China characterized by variations of the same sign in western China and northern China (except for Xinjiang province. It is likely controlled by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO variability. The third mode is a sandwich triple mode in eastern China including variations of the same sign in western China and central China. The last two modes are reproduced by most of the six coupled climate models' last millennium simulations performed in the framework of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3. In particular, the link of the second mode with ENSO is confirmed by the models. However, there is a mismatch between models and proxy reconstructions in the time development of different modes. This mismatch suggests the important role of internal variability in the reconstructed precipitation mode variations of the past 500 years.

Multi-proxy reconstructions of May-September precipitation field in China over the past 500 years

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Feng; Zhao, Sen; Guo, Zhengtang; Goosse, Hugues; Yin, Qiuzhen

2017-12-01

The dominant modes of variability of precipitation for the whole of China over the past millennium and the mechanism governing their spatial structure remain unclear. This is mainly due to insufficient high-resolution proxy records of precipitation in western China. Numerous tree-ring chronologies have recently been archived in publicly available databases through PAGES2k activities, and these provide an opportunity to refine precipitation field reconstructions for China. Based on 479 proxy records, including 371 tree-ring width chronologies, a tree-ring isotope chronology, and 107 drought/flood indices, we reconstruct the precipitation field for China for the past half millennium using the optimal information extraction method. A total of 3631 of 4189 grid points in the reconstruction field passed the cross-validation process, accounting for 86.68 % of the total number of grid points. The first leading mode of variability of the reconstruction shows coherent variations over most of China. The second mode is a north-south dipole in eastern China characterized by variations of the same sign in western China and northern China (except for Xinjiang province). It is likely controlled by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The third mode is a sandwich triple mode in eastern China including variations of the same sign in western China and central China. The last two modes are reproduced by most of the six coupled climate models' last millennium simulations performed in the framework of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3). In particular, the link of the second mode with ENSO is confirmed by the models. However, there is a mismatch between models and proxy reconstructions in the time development of different modes. This mismatch suggests the important role of internal variability in the reconstructed precipitation mode variations of the past 500 years.

The interannual precipitation variability in the southern part of Iran as linked to large-scale climate modes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pourasghar, Farnaz; Jahanbakhsh, Saeed; Sari Sarraf, Behrooz [The University of Tabriz, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Humanities and Social Science, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Tozuka, Tomoki [The University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, Tokyo (Japan); Ghaemi, Hooshang [Iran Meteorological Organization, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Yamagata, Toshio [The University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, Tokyo (Japan); Application Laboratory/JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan)

2012-11-15

The interannual variation of precipitation in the southern part of Iran and its link with the large-scale climate modes are examined using monthly data from 183 meteorological stations during 1974-2005. The majority of precipitation occurs during the rainy season from October to May. The interannual variation in fall and early winter during the first part of the rainy season shows apparently a significant positive correlation with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, a partial correlation analysis used to extract the respective influence of IOD and ENSO shows a significant positive correlation only with the IOD and not with ENSO. The southeasterly moisture flux anomaly over the Arabian Sea turns anti-cyclonically and transport more moisture to the southern part of Iran from the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea, and the Persian Gulf during the positive IOD. On the other hand, the moisture flux has northerly anomaly over Iran during the negative IOD, which results in reduced moisture supply from the south. During the latter part of the rainy season in late winter and spring, the interannual variation of precipitation is more strongly influenced by modes of variability over the Mediterranean Sea. The induced large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly controls moisture supply from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. (orig.)

Analysis of precipitation teleconnections in CMIP models as a measure of model fidelity in simulating precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J.; Meyerson, J.

2011-12-01

The accurate representation of precipitation is a recurring issue in global climate models, especially in the tropics. Poor skill in modeling the variability and climate teleconnections associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also persisted in the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) campaigns. Observed ENSO precipitation teleconnections provide a standard by which we can judge a given model's ability to reproduce precipitation and dynamic feedback processes originating in the tropical Pacific. Using CMIP3 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs as a baseline, we compare precipitation teleconnections between models and observations, and we evaluate these results against available CMIP5 historical and AMIP runs. Using AMIP simulations restricts evaluation to the atmospheric response, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in AMIP are prescribed by observations. We use a rank correlation between ENSO SST indices and precipitation to define teleconnections, since this method is robust to outliers and appropriate for non-Gaussian data. Spatial correlations of the modeled and observed teleconnections are then evaluated. We look at these correlations in regions of strong precipitation teleconnections, including equatorial S. America, the "horseshoe" region in the western tropical Pacific, and southern N. America. For each region and season, we create a "normalized projection" of a given model's teleconnection pattern onto that of the observations, a metric that assesses the quality of regional pattern simulations while rewarding signals of correct sign over the region. Comparing this to an area-averaged (i.e., more generous) metric suggests models do better when restrictions on exact spatial dependence are loosened and conservation constraints apply. Model fidelity in regional measures remains far from perfect, suggesting intrinsic issues with the models' regional sensitivities in moist processes.

California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caldwell, P M

2009-04-27

In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

A Study of Precipitation Climatology and Its Variability over Europe Using an Advanced Regional Model (WRF)

KAUST Repository

Dasari, Hari Prasad

2015-03-06

In recent years long-term precipitation trends on a regional scale have been given emphasis due to the impacts of global warming on regional hydrology. In this study, regional precipitation trends are simulated over the Europe continent for a 60-year period in 1950-2010 using an advanced regional model, WRF, to study extreme precipitation events over Europe. The model runs continuously for each year during the period at a horizontal resolution of 25 km with initial/ boundary conditions derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 2.5 degree reanalysis data sets. The E-OBS 0.25 degree rainfall observation analysis is used for model validation. Results indicate that the model could reproduce the spatial annual rainfall pattern over Europe with low amounts (250 - 750 mm) in Iberian Peninsula, moderate to large amounts (750 - 1500 mm) in central, eastern and northeastern parts of Europe and extremely heavy falls (1500 - 2000 mm) in hilly areas of Alps with a slight overestimation in Alps and underestimation in other parts of Europe. The regional model integrations showed increasing errors (mean absolute errors) and decreasing correlations with increasing time scale (daily to seasonal). Rainfall is simulated relatively better in Iberian Peninsula, northwest and central parts of Europe. A large spatial variability with the highest number of wet days over eastern, central Europe and Alps (~200 days/year) and less number of wet days over Iberian Peninsula (≤150 days/year) is also found in agreement with observations. The model could simulate the spatial rainfall climate variability reasonably well with low rainfall days (1 - 10 mm/days) in almost all zones, heavy rainfall events in western, northern, southeastern hilly and coastal zones and extremely heavy rainfall events in northern coastal zones. An increasing trend of heavy rainfall in central, southern and southeastern parts, a decreasing trend in Iberian Peninsula and a steady trend in other

Seasonal Scale Convective-Stratiform Pricipitation Variabilities at Tropics

Science.gov (United States)

S, Sreekanth T.

begin{center} Large Seasonal Scale Convective-Stratiform Pricipitation Variabilities at Tropics Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT This study investigates the variabilities of convective and stratiform rainfall from 2011 to 2013 at a tropical coastal station in three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Understanding the climatological variability of these two dominant forms of precipitation and their implications in the total rainfall were the main objectives of this investigation. Variabilities in the frequency & duration of events, rain rate & total number of rain drops distribution in different events and the accumulated amount of rain water were analysed. Based on the ground & radar observations from optical & impact disdrometers, Micro Rain Radar and Atmospheric Electric Field Mill, precipitation events were classified into convective and stratiform in three seasons. Classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill is also used. Events which could not be included in both types were termed as 'mixed precipitation' and were included separately. Diurnal variability of the total rainfall in each seasons were also examined. For both convective and stratiform rainfall there exist distinct day-night differences. During nocturnal hours convective rain draged more attention. In all seasons almost 70% of rain duration and 60% of rain events of convective origin were confined to nocturnal hours. But stratiform rain was not affected by diurnal variations greatly because night time occurrences of stratiform duration and events were less than 50%. Also in Monsoon above 35% of

Utilizing the Vertical Variability of Precipitation to Improve Radar QPE

Science.gov (United States)

Gatlin, Patrick N.; Petersen, Walter A.

2016-01-01

Characteristics of the melting layer and raindrop size distribution can be exploited to further improve radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). Using dual-polarimetric radar and disdrometers, we found that the characteristic size of raindrops reaching the ground in stratiform precipitation often varies linearly with the depth of the melting layer. As a result, a radar rainfall estimator was formulated using D(sub m) that can be employed by polarimetric as well as dual-frequency radars (e.g., space-based radars such as the GPM DPR), to lower the bias and uncertainty of conventional single radar parameter rainfall estimates by as much as 20%. Polarimetric radar also suffers from issues associated with sampling the vertical distribution of precipitation. Hence, we characterized the vertical profile of polarimetric parameters (VP3)-a radar manifestation of the evolving size and shape of hydrometeors as they fall to the ground-on dual-polarimetric rainfall estimation. The VP3 revealed that the profile of ZDR in stratiform rainfall can bias dual-polarimetric rainfall estimators by as much as 50%, even after correction for the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR). The VP3 correction technique that we developed can improve operational dual-polarimetric rainfall estimates by 13% beyond that offered by a VPR correction alone.

Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: A synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilcox, Kevin R; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A; Lemoine, Nathan P; Koerner, Sally E; Hoover, David L; Bork, Edward; Byrne, Kerry M; Cahill, James; Collins, Scott L; Evans, Sarah; Gilgen, Anna K; Holub, Petr; Jiang, Lifen; Knapp, Alan K; LeCain, Daniel; Liang, Junyi; Garcia-Palacios, Pablo; Peñuelas, Josep; Pockman, William T; Smith, Melinda D; Sun, Shanghua; White, Shannon R; Yahdjian, Laura; Zhu, Kai; Luo, Yiqi

2017-10-01

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitation changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. We used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. This highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change

Exploring temporal and spatial variability of precipitation of Weizhou Island, South China Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shulin Deng

2017-02-01

New hydrological insights: (1 Rainfall amounts had a non-homogeneous temporal distribution during periods of 1961–1990, 1981–2010 and 1961–2010 on Weizhou Island. (2 Large scale atmospheric circulation may be the major atmospheric driving force of precipitation changes. (3 Precipitation has a cyclical nature on Weizhou Island. (4 Precipitation pattern on Weizhou Island is also affected by oceanic climate. The results provide a scientific basis for water resource management on Weizhou Island.

Altered Precipitation and Flow Patterns in the Dunajec River Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariola Kędra

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This study analyzes changes in long-term patterns of precipitation and river flow, as well as changes in their variability over the most recent 60 years (1956–2015. The study area is situated in the mountain basin of the Dunajec River, encompassing streams draining the Tatra Mountains in southern Poland. The focus of the study was to evaluate how regional warming translates into precipitation changes in the studied mountain region, and how changes in climate affect sub-regional hydrology. Monthly time series of precipitation measured at several sites were compared for two 30-year periods (1986–2015 versus 1956–1985. The significance of the difference between the periods in question was evaluated by means of the Wilcoxon signed rank test with the Bonferroni correction. The identified shifts in precipitation for 6 months are statistically significant and largely consistent with the revealed changes in river flow patterns. Moreover, significant differences in precipitation variability were noted in the study area, resulting in a significant decrease in the repeatability of precipitation over the most recent 30 years (1986–2015. Changes in the variability of the river flow studied were less visible in this particular mountain region (while significant for two months; however, the overall repeatability of river flow decreased significantly at the same rate as for precipitation.

Precipitation Interpolation by Multivariate Bayesian Maximum Entropy Based on Meteorological Data in Yun- Gui-Guang region, Mainland China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chaolin; Zhong, Shaobo; Zhang, Fushen; Huang, Quanyi

2016-11-01

Precipitation interpolation has been a hot area of research for many years. It had close relation to meteorological factors. In this paper, precipitation from 91 meteorological stations located in and around Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi Zhuang provinces (or autonomous region), Mainland China was taken into consideration for spatial interpolation. Multivariate Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method with auxiliary variables, including mean relative humidity, water vapour pressure, mean temperature, mean wind speed and terrain elevation, was used to get more accurate regional distribution of annual precipitation. The means, standard deviations, skewness and kurtosis of meteorological factors were calculated. Variogram and cross- variogram were fitted between precipitation and auxiliary variables. The results showed that the multivariate BME method was precise with hard and soft data, probability density function. Annual mean precipitation was positively correlated with mean relative humidity, mean water vapour pressure, mean temperature and mean wind speed, negatively correlated with terrain elevation. The results are supposed to provide substantial reference for research of drought and waterlog in the region.

Calibration Plans for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM)

Science.gov (United States)

Bidwell, S. W.; Flaming, G. M.; Adams, W. J.; Everett, D. F.; Mendelsohn, C. R.; Smith, E. A.; Turk, J.

2002-01-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is an international effort led by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the U.S.A. and the National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA) for the purpose of improving research into the global water and energy cycle. GPM will improve climate, weather, and hydrological forecasts through more frequent and more accurate measurement of precipitation world-wide. Comprised of U.S. domestic and international partners, GPM will incorporate and assimilate data streams from many spacecraft with varied orbital characteristics and instrument capabilities. Two of the satellites will be provided directly by GPM, the core satellite and a constellation member. The core satellite, at the heart of GPM, is scheduled for launch in November 2007. The core will carry a conical scanning microwave radiometer, the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI), and a two-frequency cross-track-scanning radar, the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR). The passive microwave channels and the two radar frequencies of the core are carefully chosen for investigating the varying character of precipitation over ocean and land, and from the tropics to the high-latitudes. The DPR will enable microphysical characterization and three-dimensional profiling of precipitation. The GPM-provided constellation spacecraft will carry a GMI radiometer identical to that on the core spacecraft. This paper presents calibration plans for the GPM, including on-board instrument calibration, external calibration methods, and the role of ground validation. Particular emphasis is on plans for inter-satellite calibration of the GPM constellation. With its Unique instrument capabilities, the core spacecraft will serve as a calibration transfer standard to the GPM constellation. In particular the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar aboard the core will check the accuracy of retrievals from the GMI radiometer and will enable improvement of the radiometer retrievals

Global Precipitation Responses to Land Hydrological Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, M.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2012-12-01

Several studies have established that soil moisture increases after adding a groundwater component in land surface models due to the additional supply of subsurface water. However, impacts of groundwater on the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation have received little attention. Through the coupled groundwater-land-atmosphere model (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model + Community Land Model) simulations, this study explores how groundwater representation in the model alters the precipitation spatiotemporal distributions. Results indicate that the effect of groundwater on the amount of precipitation is not globally homogeneous. Lower tropospheric water vapor increases due to the presence of groundwater in the model. The increased water vapor destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances the vertical upward velocity and precipitation in tropical convective regions. Precipitation, therefore, is inhibited in the descending branch of convection. As a result, an asymmetric dipole is produced over tropical land regions along the equator during the summer. This is analogous to the "rich-get-richer" mechanism proposed by previous studies. Moreover, groundwater also increased short-term (seasonal) and long-term (interannual) memory of precipitation for some regions with suitable groundwater table depth and found to be a function of water table depth. Based on the spatial distributions of the one-month-lag autocorrelation coefficients as well as Hurst coefficients, air-land interaction can occur from short (several months) to long (several years) time scales. This study indicates the importance of land hydrological processes in the climate system and the necessity of including the subsurface processes in the global climate models.

Impacts of Pacific SSTs on California Winter Precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Myoung, B.; Kafatos, M.

2017-12-01

Consecutive below-normal precipitation years and resulted multi-year droughts are critical issues as the recent 2012-2015 drought of California caused tremendous socio-economic damages. However, studies on the causes of the multi-year droughts lack. In this study, focusing on the three multi-year droughts (1999-2002, 2007-2009, and 2012-2015) in California during the last two decades, we investigated the atmospheric and oceanic characteristics of the three drought events for winter (December-February, DJF) in order to understand large-scale circulations that are responsible for initiation, maintenance, and termination of the droughts. It was found that abnormally developed upper-tropospheric ridges over the North Pacific are primarily responsible for precipitation deficits and then droughts. These ridges developed when negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) including La Niña events are pervasive in the tropical Pacific. After 3 or 4 years, the droughts ended under the opposite conditions; upper-tropospheric troughs in the North Pacific with El Niño events in the tropics. Results of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis for the 41-year (1974/75-2014/15) 500 hPa geopotential height in DJF revealed that, during the drought periods, the positive phases of the first and second EOF mode (EOF1+ and EOF2+, respectively) were active one by one, positioning upper-tropospheric ridges over the North Pacific. While EOF1+ is associated with cold tropical central Pacific and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), EOF2+ is associated with the tropical east-west SST dipole pattern (i.e., warm western tropical Pacific and cool eastern tropical Pacific near the southern Peru). Based on these results, we developed a regression model for winter precipitation. While dominant SST factors differ by decades, for the recent two decades (1994/1995-2014/2015), 56% variability of DJF precipitation is explained by the tropical east-west SST dipole pattern and PDO (NINO3

ENSO variability reflected in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the Asian Summer Monsoon region

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Zhongyin; Tian, Lide; Bowen, Gabriel J.

2017-10-01

Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

CalWater 2 - Precipitation, Aerosols, and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Spackman, Ryan; Ralph, Marty; Prather, Kim; Cayan, Dan; DeMott, Paul; Dettinger, Mike; Fairall, Chris; Leung, Ruby; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Rutledge, Steven; Waliser, Duane; White, Allen

2014-05-01

Emerging research has identified two phenomena that play key roles in the variability of the water supply and the incidence of extreme precipitation events along the West Coast of the United States. These phenomena include the role of (1) atmospheric rivers (ARs) in delivering much of the precipitation associated with major storms along the U.S. West Coast, and (2) aerosols—from local sources as well as those transported from remote continents—and their modulating effects on western U.S. precipitation. A better understanding of these processes is needed to reduce uncertainties in weather predictions and climate projections of extreme precipitation and its effects, including the provision of beneficial water supply. This presentation summarizes science gaps associated with (1) the evolution and structure of ARs including cloud and precipitation processes and air-sea interaction, and (2) aerosol interaction with ARs and the impact on precipitation, including locally-generated aerosol effects on orographic precipitation along the U.S. West Coast. Observations are proposed for multiple winter seasons as part of a 5-year broad interagency vision referred to as CalWater 2 to address these science gaps (http://esrl.noaa.gov/psd/calwater). In the near term, a science investigation is being planned including a targeted set of aircraft and ship-based measurements and associated evaluation of data in near-shore regions of California and in the eastern Pacific for an intensive observing period between January 2015 and March 2015. DOE's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and NOAA are coordinating on deployment of airborne and ship-borne facilities for this period in a DOE-sponsored study called ACAPEX (ARM Cloud Aerosol and Precipitation Experiment) to complement CalWater 2. The motivation for this major study is based on findings that have emerged in the last few years from airborne and ground-based studies including CalWater and NOAA's HydroMeterology Testbed

Satellite precipitation estimation over the Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Porcu, F.; Gjoka, U.

2012-04-01

Precipitation characteristics over the Tibetan Plateau are very little known, given the scarcity of reliable and widely distributed ground observation, thus the satellite approach is a valuable choice for large scale precipitation analysis and hydrological cycle studies. However,the satellite perspective undergoes various shortcomings at the different wavelengths used in atmospheric remote sensing. In the microwave spectrum often the high soil emissivity masks or hides the atmospheric signal upwelling from light-moderate precipitation layers, while low and relatively thin precipitating clouds are not well detected in the visible-infrared, because of their low contrast with cold and bright (if snow covered) background. In this work an IR-based, statistical rainfall estimation technique is trained and applied over the Tibetan Plateau hydrological basin to retrive precipitation intensity at different spatial and temporal scales. The technique is based on a simple artificial neural network scheme trained with two supervised training sets assembled for monsoon season and for the rest of the year. For the monsoon season (estimated from June to September), the ground radar precipitation data for few case studies are used to build the training set: four days in summer 2009 are considered. For the rest of the year, CloudSat-CPR derived snowfall rate has been used as reference precipitation data, following the Kulie and Bennartz (2009) algorithm. METEOSAT-7 infrared channels radiance (at 6.7 and 11 micometers) and derived local variability features (such as local standard deviation and local average) are used as input and the actual rainrate is obtained as output for each satellite slot, every 30 minutes on the satellite grid. The satellite rainrate maps for three years (2008-2010) are computed and compared with available global precipitation products (such as C-MORPH and TMPA products) and with other techniques applied to the Plateau area: similarities and differences are

Controls on the meridional extent of tropical precipitation and its contraction under global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Donohoe, A.

2017-12-01

A method for decomposing changes and variability in the spatial structure of tropical precipitation into shifting (meridional translation), contracting, and intensifying modes of variability is introduced. We demonstrate that the shifting mode of tropical precipitation explains very little (20%) more of the tropical precipitation changes and variability. Furthermore, the contraction of tropical precipitation is highly correlated (R2 > 0.95) with an intensification of the precipitation in both the observations and forced modeled simulations. These results suggest that the simultaneous contraction and intensification of tropical precipitation is the dominant mode of variability and changes under external forcing. We speculate that tropical surface temperature controls this concurrent variability. Indeed, models robustly predict that tropical precipitation increases and meridionally contracts in response to increased CO2 and is reduced and meridionally expanded under glacial forcing and boundary conditions. In contrast, the directionality of the tropical precipitation shift is both ambiguous and small in magnitude in response to increased CO2. Furthermore, the ratio of the contraction/expansion to intensification/reduction is consistent in the continuum of climate states from the glacial climate to a modern climate to a 4XCO2 climate suggesting that the intensification and contraction are linked together via a single mechanism. We examine two mechanisms responsible for the contraction of the precipitation under global warming : i. the reduction of the seasonal cycle of energy input to the atmosphere due to sea ice retreat that results in the tropical precipitation remaining closer to the equator during the solsticial seasons and; ii. the increased gross moist stability of the tropical atmosphere as the surface warms resulting in a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley circulation during the solsticial seasons.

"Cool" vs. "warm" winter precipitation and its effect on streamflow in California

OpenAIRE

Cayan, Daniel R.

1991-01-01

Precipitation is a difficult variable to understand and predict. In this study, monthly precipitation in California is divided into two classes according to the monthly temperature to better diagnose the atmospheric circulation that causes precipitation, and to illustrate how temperature compounds the precipitation to runoff process.

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Precipitation from Station Observations

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

REN Fumin; WANG Yongmei; WANG Xiaoling; LI Weijing

2007-01-01

In this paper, an objective technique for estimating the tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation from station observations is proposed. Based on a comparison between the Original Objective Method (OOM) and the Expert Subjective Method (ESM), the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique (OSAT) for partitioning TC precipitation was developed by analyzing the western North Pacific (WNP) TC historical track and the daily precipitation datasets. Being an objective way of the ESM, OSAT overcomes the main problems in OOM,by changing two fixed parameters in OOM, the thresholds for the distance of the absolute TC precipitation (D0) and the TC size (D1), into variable parameters.Case verification for OSAT was also carried out by applying CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique) daily precipitation measurements, which is NOAA's combined satellite precipitation measurement system. This indicates that OSAT is capable of distinguishing simultaneous TC precipitation rain-belts from those associated with different TCs or with middle-latitude weather systems.

Subtropical Climate Variability since the Last Glacial Maximum from Speleothem Precipitation Reconstructions in Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Polk, J.; van Beynen, P.; DeLong, K. L.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.

2017-12-01

Teleconnections between the tropical-subtropical regions of the Americas since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), particularly the Mid- to Late-Holocene, and high-resolution proxy records refining climate variability over this period continue to receive increasing attention. Here, we present a high-resolution, precisely dated speleothem record spanning multiple periods of time since the LGM ( 30 ka) for the Florida peninsula. The data indicate that the amount effect plays a significant role in determining the isotopic signal of the speleothem calcite. Collectively, the records indicate distinct differences in climate in the region between the LGM, Mid-Holocene, and Late Holocene, including a progressive shift in ocean composition and precipitation isotopic values through the period, suggesting Florida's sensitivity to regional and global climatic shifts. Comparisons between speleothem δ18O values and Gulf of Mexico marine records reveal a strong connection between the Gulf region and the terrestrial subtropical climate in the Late Holocene, while the North Atlantic's influence is clear in the earlier portions of the record. Warmer sea surface temperatures correspond to enhanced evaporation, leading to more intense atmospheric convection in Florida, and thereby modulating the isotopic composition of rainfall above the cave. These regional signals in climate extend from the subtropics to the tropics, with a clear covariance between the speleothem signal and other proxy records from around the region, as well as global agreement during the LGM period with other records. These latter connections appear to be driven by changes in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and time series analysis of the δ18O values reveals significant multidecadal periodicities in the record, which are evidenced by agreement with the AMV and other multidecadal influences (NAO and PDO) likely having varying influence throughout the period of record. The climate variability

Examining cross-equatorial precipitation variability in the western Indian Ocean using stalagmites from Madagascar

Science.gov (United States)

Scroxton, N.; Burns, S. J.; McGee, D.; Hardt, B. F.; Godfrey, L.; Ranivoharimanana, L.; Faina, P.

2017-12-01

The behavior of the world's monsoon systems and the position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) resulting from large global climatic changes is reasonably well understood at orbital and millennial timescales. However, under the boundary conditions and relatively modest forcing of the last 2000 years it is not yet clear how tropical monsoon systems changed and why. The traditional schema of north-south translation of the ITCZ is being challenged by new theories relating to meridional expansion and contraction of the tropical rain belt, and/or to changes in zonal circulation patterns resembling modern El-Niño Southern Oscillation end members. Located at a hotspot of zonal and meridional climate forcing, stalagmites from the western Indian Ocean can provide new insights into past rainfall variability and uncover the driving mechanisms. Here, we present results from a new southern hemisphere speleothem record from Anjohibe cave, northwestern Madagascar, covering the last 1,700 years. We demonstrate that our quasi-annual, precisely dated, stable oxygen isotope record serves as a proxy for the strength of the northwestern Madagascan monsoon. The record shows a multi-decadal, in-phase relationship with its northern hemisphere monsoon counterpart from Oman - contrary to the expected antiphase relationship that would result from north-south ITCZ translation. At the centennial scale, the Madagascan record correlates well with precipitation records from Eastern Africa. We discuss the potential causes of western Indian Ocean precipitation coherency, and how it relates to either symmetrical changes in continental sensible heating, or to a low frequency zonal sea-surface temperature mode.

Late Quaternary glacier sensitivity to temperature and precipitation distribution in the Southern Alps of New Zealand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ann V. Rowan; Simon H. Brocklehurst; David M. Schultz; Mitchell A. Plummer; Leif S. Anderson; Neil F. Glasser

2014-05-01

Glaciers respond to climate variations and leave geomorphic evidence that represents an important terrestrial paleoclimate record. However, the accuracy of paleoclimate reconstructions from glacial geology is limited by the challenge of representing mountain meteorology in numerical models. Precipitation is usually treated in a simple manner and yet represents difficult-to-characterize variables such as amount, distribution, and phase. Furthermore, precipitation distributions during a glacial probably differed from present-day interglacial patterns. We applied two models to investigate glacier sensitivity to temperature and precipitation in the eastern Southern Alps of New Zealand. A 2-D model was used to quantify variations in the length of the reconstructed glaciers resulting from plausible precipitation distributions compared to variations in length resulting from change in mean annual air temperature and precipitation amount. A 1-D model was used to quantify variations in length resulting from interannual climate variability. Assuming that present-day interglacial values represent precipitation distributions during the last glacial, a range of plausible present-day precipitation distributions resulted in uncertainty in the Last Glacial Maximum length of the Pukaki Glacier of 17.1?km (24%) and the Rakaia Glacier of 9.3?km (25%), corresponding to a 0.5°C difference in temperature. Smaller changes in glacier length resulted from a 50% decrease in precipitation amount from present-day values (-14% and -18%) and from a 50% increase in precipitation amount (5% and 9%). Our results demonstrate that precipitation distribution can produce considerable variation in simulated glacier extents and that reconstructions of paleoglaciers should include this uncertainty.

Reassessing the role of temperature in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the eastern and central United States through weekly precipitation-day data

Science.gov (United States)

Akers, Pete D.; Welker, Jeffrey M.; Brook, George A.

2017-09-01

Air temperature is correlated with precipitation oxygen isotope (δ18Oprcp) variability for much of the eastern and central United States, but the nature of this δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship is largely based on data coarsely aggregated at a monthly resolution. We constructed a database of 6177 weeks of isotope and precipitation-day air temperature data from 25 sites to determine how more precise data change our understanding of this classic relationship. Because the δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship is not perfectly linear, trends in the regression residuals suggest the influence of additional environmental factors such as moisture recycling and extratropical cyclone interactions. Additionally, the temporal relationships between δ18Oprcp and temperature observed in the weekly data at individual sites can explain broader spatial patterns observed across the study region. For 20 of 25 sites, the δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship slope is higher for colder precipitation than for warmer precipitation. Accordingly, northern and western sites with relatively more cold precipitation events have steeper overall relationships with higher slope values than southeastern sites that have more warm precipitation events. Although the magnitude of δ18Oprcp variability increases to the north and west, the fraction of δ18Oprcp variability explained by temperature increases due to wider annual temperature ranges, producing stronger relationships in these regions. When our δ18Oprcp-temperature data are grouped by month, we observe significant variations in the relationship from month to month. This argues against a principal causative role for temperature and suggests the existence of an alternative environmental control on δ18Oprcp values that simply covaries seasonally with temperature.

Precipitation process for supernate decontamination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, L.M.; Kilpatrick, L.L.

1982-11-01

A precipitation and adsorption process has been developed to remove cesium, strontium, and plutonium from water-soluble, high-level radioactive waste. An existing waste tank serves as the reaction vessel and the process begins with the addition of a solution of sodium tetraphenylborate and a slurry of sodium titanate to the contained waste salt solution. Sodium tetraphenylborate precipitates the cesium and sodium titanate adsorbs the strontium and plutonium. The precipitate/adsorbate is then separated from the decontaminated salt solution by crossflow filtration. This new process offers significant capital savings over an earlier ion exchange process for salt decontamination. Chemical and small-scale engineering studies with actual waste are reported. The effect of many variables on the decontamination factors and filter performance are defined

Assessing changes in extreme convective precipitation from a damage perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

2016-12-01

Projected increases in high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to which, not only are extreme events rare, but such small scale events are likely to be underreported where they don't coincide with the observation network. Rather than focus solely on the convective precipitation, understanding the characteristics of these extremes which drive damage may be more effective to assess future risks. Two sources of data are used in this study. First, sub-daily precipitation observations over the Southern Alps enable an examination of seasonal and regional patterns in high-intensity convective precipitation and their relationship with weather types. Secondly, reports of private loss and damage on a household scale are used to identify which events are most damaging, or what conditions potentially enhance the vulnerability to these extremes.This study explores the potential added value from including recorded loss and damage data to understand the risks from summertime convective precipitation events. By relating precipitation generating weather types to the severity of damage we hope to develop a mechanism to assess future risks. A further benefit would be to identify from damage reports the likely occurrence of precipitation extremes where no direct observations are available and use this information to validate remotely sensed observations.

Evaluation of Uncertainty in Precipitation Datasets for New Mexico, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Besha, A. A.; Steele, C. M.; Fernald, A.

2014-12-01

Climate change, population growth and other factors are endangering water availability and sustainability in semiarid/arid areas particularly in the southwestern United States. Wide coverage of spatial and temporal measurements of precipitation are key for regional water budget analysis and hydrological operations which themselves are valuable tool for water resource planning and management. Rain gauge measurements are usually reliable and accurate at a point. They measure rainfall continuously, but spatial sampling is limited. Ground based radar and satellite remotely sensed precipitation have wide spatial and temporal coverage. However, these measurements are indirect and subject to errors because of equipment, meteorological variability, the heterogeneity of the land surface itself and lack of regular recording. This study seeks to understand precipitation uncertainty and in doing so, lessen uncertainty propagation into hydrological applications and operations. We reviewed, compared and evaluated the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) precipitation products, NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) monthly precipitation dataset, PRISM (Parameter elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model) data and data from individual climate stations including Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS), Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) and Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations. Though not yet finalized, this study finds that the uncertainty within precipitation estimates datasets is influenced by regional topography, season, climate and precipitation rate. Ongoing work aims to further evaluate precipitation datasets based on the relative influence of these phenomena so that we can identify the optimum datasets for input to statewide water budget analysis.

Repeated and random components in Oklahoma's monthly precipitation record

Science.gov (United States)

Precipitation across Oklahoma exhibits a high degree of spatial and temporal variability and creates numerous water resources management challenges. The monthly precipitation record of the Central Oklahoma climate division was evaluated in a proof-of-concept to establish whether a simple monthly pre...

Satellite-Based Precipitation Datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Munchak, S. J.; Huffman, G. J.

2017-12-01

Of the possible sources of precipitation data, those based on satellites provide the greatest spatial coverage. There is a wide selection of datasets, algorithms, and versions from which to choose, which can be confusing to non-specialists wishing to use the data. The International Precipitation Working Group (IPWG) maintains tables of the major publicly available, long-term, quasi-global precipitation data sets (http://www.isac.cnr.it/ ipwg/data/datasets.html), and this talk briefly reviews the various categories. As examples, NASA provides two sets of quasi-global precipitation data sets: the older Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and current Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG). Both provide near-real-time and post-real-time products that are uniformly gridded in space and time. The TMPA products are 3-hourly 0.25°x0.25° on the latitude band 50°N-S for about 16 years, while the IMERG products are half-hourly 0.1°x0.1° on 60°N-S for over 3 years (with plans to go to 16+ years in Spring 2018). In addition to the precipitation estimates, each data set provides fields of other variables, such as the satellite sensor providing estimates and estimated random error. The discussion concludes with advice about determining suitability for use, the necessity of being clear about product names and versions, and the need for continued support for satellite- and surface-based observation.

The linkage between geopotential height and monthly precipitation in Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Shirvani, Amin; Fadaei, Amir Sabetan; Landman, Willem A.

2018-04-01

This paper investigates the linkage between large-scale atmospheric circulation and monthly precipitation during November to April over Iran. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to set up the statistical linkage between the 850 hPa geopotential height large-scale circulation and monthly precipitation over Iran for the period 1968-2010. The monthly precipitation dataset for 50 synoptic stations distributed in different climate regions of Iran is considered as the response variable in the CCA. The monthly geopotential height reanalysis dataset over an area between 10° N and 60° N and from 20° E to 80° E is utilized as the explanatory variable in the CCA. Principal component analysis (PCA) as a pre-filter is used for data reduction for both explanatory and response variables before applying CCA. The optimal number of principal components and canonical variables to be retained in the CCA equations is determined using the highest average cross-validated Kendall's tau value. The 850 hPa geopotential height pattern over the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, and Persian Gulf is found to be the major pattern related to Iranian monthly precipitation. The Pearson correlation between the area averaged of the observed and predicted precipitation over the study area for Jan, Feb, March, April, November, and December months are statistically significant at the 5% significance level and are 0.78, 0.80, 0.82, 0.74, 0.79, and 0.61, respectively. The relative operating characteristic (ROC) indicates that the highest scores for the above- and below-normal precipitation categories are, respectively, for February and April and the lowest scores found for December.

Compound effects of temperature and precipitation in making droughts more frequent in Marathwada, India

Science.gov (United States)

Mondal, A.; Zachariah, M.; Achutarao, K. M.; Otto, F. E. L.

2017-12-01

The Marathwada region in Maharashtra, India is known to suffer significantly from agrarian crisis including farmer suicides resulting from persistent droughts. Drought monitoring in India is commonly based on univariate indicators that consider the deficiency in precipitation alone. However, droughts may involve complex interplay of multiple physical variables, necessitating an integrated, multivariate approach to analyse their behaviour. In this study, we compare the behaviour of drought characteristics in Marathwada in the recent years as compared to the first half of the twentieth century, using a joint precipitation and temperature-based Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI). Drought events in the recent times are found to exhibit exceptional simultaneous anomalies of high temperature and precipitation deficits in this region, though studies on precipitation alone show that these events are within the range of historically observed variability. Additionally, we also develop multivariate copula-based Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) relationships for droughts in this region and compare their natures pre- and post- 1950. Based on multivariate return periods considering both temperature and precipitation anomalies, as well as the severity and duration of droughts, it is found that droughts have become more frequent in the post-1950 period. Based on precipitation alone, such an observation cannot be made. This emphasizes the sensitivity of droughts to temperature and underlines the importance of considering compound effects of temperature and precipitation in order to avoid an underestimation of drought risk. This observation-based analysis is the first step towards investigating the causal mechanisms of droughts, their evolutions and impacts in this region, particularly those influenced by anthropogenic climate change.

Links between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and recent trends in European winter precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Ummenhofer, Caroline; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Joyce, Terrence

2015-04-01

European precipitation has sustained robust trends during wintertime (January - March) over recent decades. Central, western, and northern Europe have become wetter by an average 0.1-0.3% per annum for the period 1901-2010, while southern Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, much of Italy and the Balkan States, has sustained drying of -0.2% per annum or more over the same period. The overall pattern is consistent across different observational precipitation products, while the magnitude of the precipitation trends varies amongst data sets. Using cluster analysis, which identifies recurrent states (or regimes) of European winter precipitation by grouping them according to an objective similarity criterion, changes in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns over the past century are evaluated. Considerable multi-decadal variability exists in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns: more recent decades are characterised by significantly fewer winters with anomalous wet conditions over southern, western, and central Europe. In contrast, winters with dry conditions in western and southern Europe, but above-average rainfall in western Scandinavia and the northern British Isles, have been more common recently. We evaluate the associated multi-decadal large-scale circulation changes across the broader extratropical North Atlantic region, which accompany the observed wintertime precipitation variability using the 20th Century reanalysis product. Some influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is apparent in modulating the frequency of dominant precipitation patterns. However, recent trends in the characteristics of atmospheric blocking across the North Atlantic sector indicate a change in the dominant blocking centres (near Greenland, the British Isles, and west of the Iberian Peninsula). Associated changes in sea level pressure, storm track position and strength, and oceanic heat fluxes across the North Atlantic region are also

Improved Hourly and Sub-Hourly Gauge Data for Assessing Precipitation Extremes in the U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrimore, J. H.; Wuertz, D.; Palecki, M. A.; Kim, D.; Stevens, S. E.; Leeper, R.; Korzeniewski, B.

2017-12-01

The NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) Fischer-Porter (F&P) weighing bucket precipitation gauge network consists of approximately 2000 stations that comprise a subset of the NWS Cooperative Observers Program network. This network has operated since the mid-20th century, providing one of the longest records of hourly and 15-minute precipitation observations in the U.S. The lengthy record of this dataset combined with its relatively high spatial density, provides an important source of data for many hydrological applications including understanding trends and variability in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. In recent years NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information initiated an upgrade of its end-to-end processing and quality control system for these data. This involved a change from a largely manual review and edit process to a fully automated system that removes the subjectivity that was previously a necessary part of dataset quality control and processing. An overview of improvements to this dataset is provided along with the results of an analysis of observed variability and trends in U.S. precipitation extremes since the mid-20th century. Multi-decadal trends in many parts of the nation are consistent with model projections of an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation in a warming world.

Modelled Precipitation Over Greenland

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set includes the annual total precipitation from 1985 to 1999 and monthly total precipitation from January 1985 to December 1999. The data is derived from...

Spatial analysis of precipitation time series over the Upper Indus Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Latif, Yasir; Yaoming, Ma; Yaseen, Muhammad

2018-01-01

The upper Indus basin (UIB) holds one of the most substantial river systems in the world, contributing roughly half of the available surface water in Pakistan. This water provides necessary support for agriculture, domestic consumption, and hydropower generation; all critical for a stable economy in Pakistan. This study has identified trends, analyzed variability, and assessed changes in both annual and seasonal precipitation during four time series, identified herein as: (first) 1961-2013, (second) 1971-2013, (third) 1981-2013, and (fourth) 1991-2013, over the UIB. This study investigated spatial characteristics of the precipitation time series over 15 weather stations and provides strong evidence of annual precipitation by determining significant trends at 6 stations (Astore, Chilas, Dir, Drosh, Gupis, and Kakul) out of the 15 studied stations, revealing a significant negative trend during the fourth time series. Our study also showed significantly increased precipitation at Bunji, Chitral, and Skardu, whereas such trends at the rest of the stations appear insignificant. Moreover, our study found that seasonal precipitation decreased at some locations (at a high level of significance), as well as periods of scarce precipitation during all four seasons. The observed decreases in precipitation appear stronger and more significant in autumn; having 10 stations exhibiting decreasing precipitation during the fourth time series, with respect to time and space. Furthermore, the observed decreases in precipitation appear robust and more significant for regions at high elevation (>1300 m). This analysis concludes that decreasing precipitation dominated the UIB, both temporally and spatially including in the higher areas.

Vegetation Responses to Climate Variability in the Northern Arid to Sub-Humid Zones of Sub-Saharan Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khaldoun Rishmawi

2016-11-01

Full Text Available In water limited environments precipitation is often considered the key factor influencing vegetation growth and rates of development. However; other climate variables including temperature; humidity; the frequency and intensity of precipitation events are also known to affect productivity; either directly by changing photosynthesis and transpiration rates or indirectly by influencing water availability and plant physiology. The aim here is to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation responses to precipitation and to additional; relevant; meteorological variables. First; an empirical; statistical analysis of the relationship between precipitation and the additional meteorological variables and a proxy of vegetation productivity (the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI is reported and; second; a process-oriented modeling approach to explore the hydrologic and biophysical mechanisms to which the significant empirical relationships might be attributed. The analysis was conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa; between 5 and 18°N; for a 25-year period 1982–2006; and used a new quasi-daily Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR dataset. The results suggest that vegetation; particularly in the wetter areas; does not always respond directly and proportionately to precipitation variation; either because of the non-linearity of soil moisture recharge in response to increases in precipitation; or because variations in temperature and humidity attenuate the vegetation responses to changes in water availability. We also find that productivity; independent of changes in total precipitation; is responsive to intra-annual precipitation variation. A significant consequence is that the degree of correlation of all the meteorological variables with productivity varies geographically; so no one formulation is adequate for the entire region. Put together; these results demonstrate that vegetation responses to meteorological variation are more

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

Science.gov (United States)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2017-09-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

Science.gov (United States)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2018-06-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Can the possibility of some linkage of monsoonal precipitation with solar variability be ignored? Indications from foraminiferal proxy records

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Khare, N.; Nigam, R

of monsoonal precipitation by the sunspot minima has been explored in the past through var i ous studies across the world 11 ? 14 . Several important and inte r- esting papers on the role of solar variability over climatic cha nges have prompted renewed... inte r vals up to 80 cm (representing the last ~720 years). All samples were i m- mediately transferred to polythene bags and sealed. A po r tion of these core samples from different levels was dried at 60 ?C and washed through a 230 mesh (63...

Temperature-dependent daily variability of precipitable water in special sensor microwave/imager observations

Science.gov (United States)

Gutowski, William J.; Lindemulder, Elizabeth A.; Jovaag, Kari

1995-01-01

We use retrievals of atmospheric precipitable water from satellite microwave observations and analyses of near-surface temperature to examine the relationship between these two fields on daily and longer time scales. The retrieval technique producing the data used here is most effective over the open ocean, so the analysis focuses on the southern hemisphere's extratropics, which have an extensive ocean surface. For both the total and the eddy precipitable water fields, there is a close correspondence between local variations in the precipitable water and near-surface temperature. The correspondence appears particularly strong for synoptic and planetary scale transient eddies. More specifically, the results support a typical modeling assumption that transient eddy moisture fields are proportional to transient eddy temperature fields under the assumption f constant relative humidity.

Precipitation of plutonium (III) oxalate and calcination to plutonium oxide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esteban, A.; Orosco, E.H.; Cassaniti, P.; Greco, L.; Adelfang, P.

1989-01-01

The plutonium based fuel fabrication requires the conversion of the plutonium nitrate solution from nuclear fuel reprocessing into pure PuO2. The conversion method based on the precipitation of plutonium (III) oxalate and subsequent calcination has been studied in detail. In this procedure, plutonium (III) oxalate is precipitated, at room temperature, by the slow addition of 1M oxalic acid to the feed solution, containing from 5-100 g/l of plutonium in 1M nitric acid. Before precipitation, the plutonium is adjusted to trivalent state by addition of 1M ascorbic acid in the presence of an oxidation inhibitor such as hydrazine. Finally, the precipitate is calcinated at 700 deg C to obtain PuO2. A flowsheet is proposed in this paper including: a) A study about the conditions to adjust the plutonium valence. b) Solubility data of plutonium (III) oxalate and measurements of plutonium losses to the filtrate and wash solution. c) Characterization of the obtained products. Plutonium (III) oxalate has several potential advantages over similar conversion processes. These include: 1) Formation of small particle sizes powder with good pellets fabrication characteristics. 2) The process is rather insensitive to most process variables, except nitric acid concentration. 3) Ambient temperature operations. 4) The losses of plutonium to the filtrate are less than in other conversion processes. (Author) [es

TCA precipitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Koontz, Laura

2014-01-01

Trichloroacetic acid (TCA) precipitation of proteins is commonly used to concentrate protein samples or remove contaminants, including salts and detergents, prior to downstream applications such as SDS-PAGE or 2D-gels. TCA precipitation denatures the protein, so it should not be used if the protein must remain in its folded state (e.g., if you want to measure a biochemical activity of the protein). © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climatological Downscaling and Evaluation of AGRMET Precipitation Analyses Over the Continental U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, M.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Eylander, J. B.; Daly, C.; Tian, Y.; Zeng, J.

2007-05-01

The spatially distributed application of a land surface model (LSM) over a region of interest requires the application of similarly distributed precipitation fields that can be derived from various sources, including surface gauge networks, surface-based radar, and orbital platforms. The spatial variability of precipitation influences the spatial organization of soil temperature and moisture states and, consequently, the spatial variability of land- atmosphere fluxes. The accuracy of spatially-distributed precipitation fields can contribute significantly to the uncertainty of model-based hydrological states and fluxes at the land surface. Collaborations between the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), NASA, and Oregon State University have led to improvements in the processing of meteorological forcing inputs for the NASA-GSFC Land Information System (LIS; Kumar et al. 2006), a sophisticated framework for LSM operation and model coupling experiments. Efforts at AFWA toward the production of surface hydrometeorological products are currently in transition from the legacy Agricultural Meteorology modeling system (AGRMET) to use of the LIS framework and procedures. Recent enhancements to meteorological input processing for application to land surface models in LIS include the assimilation of climate-based information for the spatial interpolation and downscaling of precipitation fields. Climatological information included in the LIS-based downscaling procedure for North America is provided by a monthly high-resolution PRISM (Daly et al. 1994, 2002; Daly 2006) dataset based on a 30-year analysis period. The combination of these sources and methods attempts to address the strengths and weaknesses of available legacy products, objective interpolation methods, and the PRISM knowledge-based methodology. All of these efforts are oriented on an operational need for timely estimation of spatial precipitation fields at adequate spatial resolution for customer dissemination and

Spatial and temporal variability of stable isotope composition of precipitation over the south american continent

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

1995-01-01

centra en el estudio de la variabilidad espacial y temporal de la composición de isótopos estables de la precipitación a escala del continente. En este estudio se examina con cierto detalle la relación aparente entre la composición isotópica de la precipitación en la región y algunos parámetros climáticos tales como la cantidad de precipitación y la temperatura del aire. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA, in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO is conducting a world-wide survey of the isotope composition of precipitation. At present, around 60 stations are providing information on the stable isotope composition of precipitation over the South American continent. During the recent years, several national monitoring networks have been initiated (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Peru. They provide a valuable contribution to the global IAEA/WMO database. The paper is focused on spatial and temporal variability of the stable isotope composition of precipitation, observed over the South American continent. The relationship between isotopic signature of precipitation and climatically relevant parameters, such as surface air temperature or amount of precipitation is discussed in some detail.

Climate variability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rind, D.

1990-01-01

Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

Object-Based Assessment of Satellite Precipitation Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingjing Li

2016-06-01

Full Text Available An object-based verification approach is employed to assess the performance of the commonly used high-resolution satellite precipitation products: Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN, Climate Prediction center MORPHing technique (CMORPH, and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA 3B42RT. The evaluation of the satellite precipitation products focuses on the skill of depicting the geometric features of the localized precipitation areas. Seasonal variability of the performances of these products against the ground observations is investigated through the examples of warm and cold seasons. It is found that PERSIANN is capable of depicting the orientation of the localized precipitation areas in both seasons. CMORPH has the ability to capture the sizes of the localized precipitation areas and performs the best in the overall assessment for both seasons. 3B42RT is capable of depicting the location of the precipitation areas for both seasons. In addition, all of the products perform better on capturing the sizes and centroids of precipitation areas in the warm season than in the cold season, while they perform better on depicting the intersection area and orientation in the cold season than in the warm season. These products are more skillful on correctly detecting the localized precipitation areas against the observations in the warm season than in the cold season.

Taylor Series Trajectory Calculations Including Oblateness Effects and Variable Atmospheric Density

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, James R.

2011-01-01

Taylor series integration is implemented in NASA Glenn's Spacecraft N-body Analysis Program, and compared head-to-head with the code's existing 8th- order Runge-Kutta Fehlberg time integration scheme. This paper focuses on trajectory problems that include oblateness and/or variable atmospheric density. Taylor series is shown to be significantly faster and more accurate for oblateness problems up through a 4x4 field, with speedups ranging from a factor of 2 to 13. For problems with variable atmospheric density, speedups average 24 for atmospheric density alone, and average 1.6 to 8.2 when density and oblateness are combined.

Variability in warm-season atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns over subtropical South America: relationships between the South Atlantic convergence zone and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin

Science.gov (United States)

Mattingly, Kyle S.; Mote, Thomas L.

2017-01-01

Warm-season precipitation variability over subtropical South America is characterized by an inverse relationship between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and precipitation over the central and western La Plata basin of southeastern South America. This study extends the analysis of this "South American Seesaw" precipitation dipole to relationships between the SACZ and large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems (LLCSs) over the La Plata basin. By classifying SACZ events into distinct continental and oceanic categories and building a logistic regression model that relates LLCS activity across the region to continental and oceanic SACZ precipitation, a detailed account of spatial variability in the out-of-phase coupling between the SACZ and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin is provided. Enhanced precipitation in the continental SACZ is found to result in increased LLCS activity over northern, northeastern, and western sections of the La Plata basin, in association with poleward atmospheric moisture flux from the Amazon basin toward these regions, and a decrease in the probability of LLCS occurrence over the southeastern La Plata basin. Increased oceanic SACZ precipitation, however, was strongly related to reduced atmospheric moisture and decreased probability of LLCS occurrence over nearly the entire La Plata basin. These results suggest that continental SACZ activity and large-scale organized convection over the northern and eastern sections of the La Plata basin are closely tied to atmospheric moisture transport from the Amazon basin, while the warm coastal Brazil Current may also play an important role as an evaporative moisture source for LLCSs over the central and western La Plata basin.

Preliminary Studies on Summer Precipitation Patterns in China%我国夏季降水类型初探

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

李鸾

2008-01-01

[Objective]Study on the spatial distribution of summer precipitation patterns and interannnal and interdacadal variability.[Method]The summer precipitation patterns were obtained from standard field of summer precipitation data for 160 observation stations in China during 1951-2000 by the utilization of empirical orthogonal function(EOF),and characteristics of interannual and interdecadal variability were analyzed.[Result]The summer precipitation mainly distributes in eastern part of China;The Ist,2nd and 3rd EOF modes of spatial distribution are especially remarkable as well consistent with the results of previous reports about three rainfall patterns from analysis on the percentages of precipitation anomaly of summer.[Conclusion]There exists interannnal and interdecadal variability for summer precipitation in China.

Identifying external influences on global precipitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marvel, K.; Bonfils, C.

2013-11-11

Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle (“thermodynamic” changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt (“dynamic” changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities.

GPM Mission Gridded Text Products Providing Surface Precipitation Retrievals

Science.gov (United States)

Stocker, Erich Franz; Kelley, Owen; Huffman, George; Kummerow, Christian

2015-04-01

In February 2015, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission core satellite will complete its first year in space. The core satellite carries a conically scanning microwave imager called the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI), which also has 166 GHz and 183 GHz frequency channels. The GPM core satellite also carries a dual frequency radar (DPR) which operates at Ku frequency, similar to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar), and a new Ka frequency. The precipitation processing system (PPS) is producing swath-based instantaneous precipitation retrievals from GMI, both radars including a dual-frequency product, and a combined GMI/DPR precipitation retrieval. These level 2 products are written in the HDF5 format and have many additional parameters beyond surface precipitation that are organized into appropriate groups. While these retrieval algorithms were developed prior to launch and are not optimal, these algorithms are producing very creditable retrievals. It is appropriate for a wide group of users to have access to the GPM retrievals. However, for reseachers requiring only surface precipitation, these L2 swath products can appear to be very intimidating and they certainly do contain many more variables than the average researcher needs. Some researchers desire only surface retrievals stored in a simple easily accessible format. In response, PPS has begun to produce gridded text based products that contain just the most widely used variables for each instrument (surface rainfall rate, fraction liquid, fraction convective) in a single line for each grid box that contains one or more observations. This paper will describe the gridded data products that are being produced and provide an overview of their content. Currently two types of gridded products are being produced: (1) surface precipitation retrievals from the core satellite instruments - GMI, DPR, and combined GMI/DPR (2) surface precipitation retrievals for the partner

About hidden influence of predictor variables: Suppressor and mediator variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milovanović Boško

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper procedure for researching hidden influence of predictor variables in regression models and depicting suppressor variables and mediator variables is shown. It is also shown that detection of suppressor variables and mediator variables could provide refined information about the research problem. As an example for applying this procedure, relation between Atlantic atmospheric centers and air temperature and precipitation amount in Serbia is chosen. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47007

Relative Contribution of Monsoon Precipitation and Pumping to Changes in Groundwater Storage in India

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Asoka, Akarsh; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Mishra, Vimal

2017-01-01

The depletion of groundwater resources threatens food and water security in India. However, the relative influence of groundwater pumping and climate variability on groundwater availability and storage remains unclear. Here we show from analyses of satellite and local well data spanning the past decade that long-term changes in monsoon precipitation are driving groundwater storage variability in most parts of India either directly by changing recharge or indirectly by changing abstraction. We find that groundwater storage has declined in northern India at the rate of 2 cm/yr and increased by 1 to 2 cm/yr in southern India between 2002 and 2013. We find that a large fraction of the total variability in groundwater storage in north-central and southern India can be explained by changes in precipitation. Groundwater storage variability in northwestern India can be explained predominantly by variability in abstraction for irrigation, which is in turn influenced by changes in precipitation. Declining precipitation in northern India is linked to Indian Ocean warming, suggesting a previously unrecognized teleconnection between ocean temperatures and groundwater storage.

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes observed in Modena, Italy

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Boccolari, M.; Malmusi, S.

2013-03-01

Climate changes has become one of the most analysed subjects from researchers community, mainly because of the numerous extreme events that hit the globe. To have a better view of climate changes and trends, long observations time series are needed. During last decade a lot of Italian time series, concerning several surface meteorological variables, have been analysed and published. No one of them includes one of the longest record in Italy, the time series of the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. Measurements, collected since early 19th century, always in the same position, except for some months during the second world war, embrace daily temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, pressure, cloudiness and other variables. In this work we concentrated on the analysis of yearly and seasonal trends and climate extremes of temperature, both minimum and maximum, and precipitation time series, for the periods 1861-2010 and 1831-2010 respectively, in which continuous measurements are available. In general, our results confirm quite well those reported by IPCC and in many other studies over Mediterranean area. In particular, we found that minimum temperature has a non significant positive trend of + 0.1 °C per decade considering all the period, the value increases to 0.9 °C per decade for 1981-2010. For maximum temperature we observed a non significant + 0.1 °C trend for all the period, while + 0.8 °C for the last thirty years. On the other hand precipitation is decreasing, -6.3 mm per decade, considering all the analysed period, while the last thirty years are characterised by a great increment of 74.8 mm per decade. For both variables several climate indices have been analysed and they confirm what has been found for minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation. In particular, during last 30 years frost days and ice days are decreasing, whereas summer days are increasing. During the last 30-year tropical nights

Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991-2015 versus 1961-1990

Science.gov (United States)

Pińskwar, Iwona; Choryński, Adam; Graczyk, Dariusz; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2018-01-01

Several episodes of extreme precipitation excess and extreme precipitation deficit, with considerable economic and social impacts, have occurred in Europe and in Poland in the last decades. However, the changes of related indices exhibit complex variability. This paper analyses changes in indices related to observed abundance and deficit of precipitated water in Poland. Among studied indices are maximum seasonal 24-h precipitation for the winter half-year (Oct.-March) and the summer half-year (Apr.-Sept.), maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum monthly precipitation and number of days with intense or very intense precipitation (respectively, in excess of 10 mm or 20 mm per day). Also, the warm-seasonal maximum number of consecutive dry days (longest period with daily precipitation below 1 mm) was examined. Analysis of precipitation extremes showed that daily maximum precipitation for the summer half-year increased for many stations, and increases during the summer half-year are more numerous than those in the winter half-year. Also, analysis of 5-day and monthly precipitation sums show increases for many stations. Number of days with intense precipitation increases especially in the north-western part of Poland. The number of consecutive dry days is getting higher for many stations in the summer half-year. Comparison of these two periods: colder 1961-1990 and warmer 1991-2015, revealed that during last 25 years most of statistical indices, such as 25th and 75th percentiles, median, mean and maximum are higher. However, many changes discussed in this paper are weak and statistically insignificant. The findings reported in this paper challenge results based on earlier data that do not include 2007-2015.

North-South precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales

Science.gov (United States)

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Diaz, Henry F.; Meko, D.M.

1998-01-01

The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25??to 55??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both timescales, two leading EOFs describe 1) a north-south seesaw of precipitation pivoting near 40??N and 2) variations in precipitation near 40??N, respectively. The amount of overall precipitation variability is only about 10% of the mean and is largely determined by precipitation variations around 40??-45??N and most consistently influenced by nearby circulation patterns; in this sense, domain-average precipitation is closely related to the second EOF. The central latitude and latitudinal spread of precipitation distributions are strongly influenced by precipitation

Precipitation collector bias and its effects on temporal trends and spatial variability in National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network data

Science.gov (United States)

Wetherbee, Gregory A.

2017-01-01

Precipitation samples have been collected by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program's (NADP) National Trends Network (NTN) using the Aerochem Metrics Model 301 (ACM) collector since 1978. Approximately one-third of the NTN ACM collectors have been replaced with N-CON Systems, Inc. Model ADS 00-120 (NCON) collectors. Concurrent data were collected over 6 years at 12 NTN sites using colocated ACM and NCON collectors in various precipitation regimes. Linear regression models of the colocated data were used to adjust for relative bias between the collectors. Replacement of ACM collectors with NCON collectors resulted in shifts in 10-year seasonal precipitation-weighted mean concentration (PWMC) trend slopes for: cations (−0.001 to −0.007 mgL−1yr−1), anions (−0.009 to −0.028 mgL−1yr−1), and hydrogen ion (+0.689 meqL-1yr−1). Larger shifts in NO3− and SO4−2 seasonal PWMC trend slopes were observed in the Midwest and Northeast US, where concentrations are generally higher than in other regions. Geospatial analysis of interpolated concentration rasters indicated regions of accentuated variability introduced by incorporation of NCON collectors into the NTN.

Climate variability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rind, D.

1991-01-01

Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

Detection of the relationship between peak temperature and extreme precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Y.; Liu, J.; Zhiyong, Y.

2017-12-01

Under the background of climate change and human activities, the characteristics and pattern of precipitation have changed significantly in many regions. As the political and cultural center of China, the structure and character of precipitation in Jingjinji District has varied dramatically in recent years. In this paper, the daily precipitation data throughout the period 1960-2013 are selected for analyzing the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation. The results indicate that the frequency and intensity of precipitation presents an increasing trend. Based on the precipitation data, the maximum, minimum and mean precipitation in different temporal and spatial scales is calculated respectively. The temporal and spatial variation of temperature is obtained by using statistical methods. The relationship between temperature and precipitation in different range is analyzed. The curve relates daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing at the low-medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. The relationship between extreme precipitation is stronger in downtown than that in suburbs.

Tundra water budget and implications of precipitation underestimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Liljedahl, Anna K; Hinzman, Larry D; Kane, Douglas L; Oechel, Walter C; Tweedie, Craig E; Zona, Donatella

2017-08-01

Difficulties in obtaining accurate precipitation measurements have limited meaningful hydrologic assessment for over a century due to performance challenges of conventional snowfall and rainfall gauges in windy environments. Here, we compare snowfall observations and bias adjusted snowfall to end-of-winter snow accumulation measurements on the ground for 16 years (1999-2014) and assess the implication of precipitation underestimation on the water balance for a low-gradient tundra wetland near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska (2007-2009). In agreement with other studies, and not accounting for sublimation, conventional snowfall gauges captured 23-56% of end-of-winter snow accumulation. Once snowfall and rainfall are bias adjusted, long-term annual precipitation estimates more than double (from 123 to 274 mm), highlighting the risk of studies using conventional or unadjusted precipitation that dramatically under-represent water balance components. Applying conventional precipitation information to the water balance analysis produced consistent storage deficits (79 to 152 mm) that were all larger than the largest actual deficit (75 mm), which was observed in the unusually low rainfall summer of 2007. Year-to-year variability in adjusted rainfall (±33 mm) was larger than evapotranspiration (±13 mm). Measured interannual variability in partitioning of snow into runoff (29% in 2008 to 68% in 2009) in years with similar end-of-winter snow accumulation (180 and 164 mm, respectively) highlights the importance of the previous summer's rainfall (25 and 60 mm, respectively) on spring runoff production. Incorrect representation of precipitation can therefore have major implications for Arctic water budget descriptions that in turn can alter estimates of carbon and energy fluxes.

Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Notaro, Michael [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States)

2008-06-15

The impact of interannual variability in temperature and precipitation on global terrestrial ecosystems is investigated using a dynamic global vegetation model driven by gridded climate observations for the twentieth century. Contrasting simulations are driven either by repeated mean climatology or raw climate data with interannual variability included. Interannual climate variability reduces net global vegetation cover, particularly over semi-arid regions, and favors the expansion of grass cover at the expense of tree cover, due to differences in growth rates, fire impacts, and interception. The area burnt by global fires is substantially enhanced by interannual precipitation variability. The current position of the central United States' ecotone, with forests to the east and grasslands to the west, is largely attributed to climate variability. Among woody vegetation, climate variability supports expanded deciduous forest growth and diminished evergreen forest growth, due to difference in bioclimatic limits, leaf longevity, interception rates, and rooting depth. These results offer insight into future ecosystem distributions since climate models generally predict an increase in climate variability and extremes. (orig.)

Pareto-optimal estimates that constrain mean California precipitation change

Science.gov (United States)

Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J. D.

2017-12-01

Global climate model (GCM) projections of greenhouse gas-induced precipitation change can exhibit notable uncertainty at the regional scale, particularly in regions where the mean change is small compared to internal variability. This is especially true for California, which is located in a transition zone between robust precipitation increases to the north and decreases to the south, and where GCMs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) archive show no consensus on mean change (in either magnitude or sign) across the central and southern parts of the state. With the goal of constraining this uncertainty, we apply a multiobjective approach to a large set of subensembles (subsets of models from the full CMIP5 ensemble). These constraints are based on subensemble performance in three fields important to California precipitation: tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, upper-level zonal winds in the midlatitude Pacific, and precipitation over the state. An evolutionary algorithm is used to sort through and identify the set of Pareto-optimal subensembles across these three measures in the historical climatology, and we use this information to constrain end-of-century California wet season precipitation change. This technique narrows the range of projections throughout the state and increases confidence in estimates of positive mean change. Furthermore, these methods complement and generalize emergent constraint approaches that aim to restrict uncertainty in end-of-century projections, and they have applications to even broader aspects of uncertainty quantification, including parameter sensitivity and model calibration.

Ecosystem functional response across precipitation extremes in a sagebrush steppe.

Science.gov (United States)

Tredennick, Andrew T; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Taylor, J Bret; Adler, Peter B

2018-01-01

Precipitation is predicted to become more variable in the western United States, meaning years of above and below average precipitation will become more common. Periods of extreme precipitation are major drivers of interannual variability in ecosystem functioning in water limited communities, but how ecosystems respond to these extremes over the long-term may shift with precipitation means and variances. Long-term changes in ecosystem functional response could reflect compensatory changes in species composition or species reaching physiological thresholds at extreme precipitation levels. We conducted a five year precipitation manipulation experiment in a sagebrush steppe ecosystem in Idaho, United States. We used drought and irrigation treatments (approximately 50% decrease/increase) to investigate whether ecosystem functional response remains consistent under sustained high or low precipitation. We recorded data on aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), species abundance, and soil moisture. We fit a generalized linear mixed effects model to determine if the relationship between ANPP and soil moisture differed among treatments. We used nonmetric multidimensional scaling to quantify community composition over the five years. Ecosystem functional response, defined as the relationship between soil moisture and ANPP, was similar among irrigation and control treatments, but the drought treatment had a greater slope than the control treatment. However, all estimates for the effect of soil moisture on ANPP overlapped zero, indicating the relationship is weak and uncertain regardless of treatment. There was also large spatial variation in ANPP within-years, which contributes to the uncertainty of the soil moisture effect. Plant community composition was remarkably stable over the course of the experiment and did not differ among treatments. Despite some evidence that ecosystem functional response became more sensitive under sustained drought conditions, the response

Precipitation and Evaporation Trends in Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Dixon, R. W.

2009-05-01

Texas is a large land area with at least three different climate types. As such it is expected that the results of climate change will not be homogenous. This paper presents results of a study of long trends in Texas precipitation and evaporation using data from the US Historical Climatology Network and the Texas Water Development Board. It shows that the long term trends of these variables is not homogenous and exhibits great variability in both spatial extent and magnitude. This variability must be considered in planning for future water supply or other mitigation projects.

Long Term Ground Based Precipitation Data Analysis in California's 7 Climate Divisions: Spatial and Temporal Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, L.; El-Askary, H. M.; Rakovski, C.; Allai, M.

2015-12-01

California is an area of diverse topography and has what many scientists call a Mediterranean climate. Various precipitation patterns exist due to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which can cause abnormal precipitation or droughts. As temperature increases mainly due to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, it is rapidly changing the climate of not only California but the world. An increase in temperature is leading to droughts in certain areas as other areas are experiencing heavy rainfall/flooding. Droughts in return are providing a foundation for fires harming the ecosystem and nearby population. Various natural hazards can be induced due to the coupling effects from inconsistent precipitation patterns and vice versa. Using wavelets and ARIMA modeling, we were able to identify anomalies of high precipitation and droughts within California's 7 climate divisions using NOAA's hourly precipitation data from rain gauges and compared the results with modeled data, SOI, PDO, and AMO. The identification of anomalies can be used to compare and correct remote sensing measurements of precipitation and droughts.

Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Hwang, Y.; Clark, M.R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.

2012-01-01

Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. J. Egozcue

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute.

Decreased runoff response to precipitation, Little Missouri River Basin, northern Great Plains, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Griffin, Eleanor R.; Friedman, Jonathan M.

2017-01-01

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976-2012 compared to 1939-1975 (n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant (p runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface-water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for 1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.

A global satellite assisted precipitation climatology

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Christopher C.; Verdin, Andrew P.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Pedreros, Diego; Husak, Gregory J.; Peterson, P.

2015-01-01

Accurate representations of mean climate conditions, especially in areas of complex terrain, are an important part of environmental monitoring systems. As high-resolution satellite monitoring information accumulates with the passage of time, it can be increasingly useful in efforts to better characterize the earth's mean climatology. Current state-of-the-science products rely on complex and sometimes unreliable relationships between elevation and station-based precipitation records, which can result in poor performance in food and water insecure regions with sparse observation networks. These vulnerable areas (like Ethiopia, Afghanistan, or Haiti) are often the critical regions for humanitarian drought monitoring. Here, we show that long period of record geo-synchronous and polar-orbiting satellite observations provide a unique new resource for producing high resolution (0.05°) global precipitation climatologies that perform reasonably well in data sparse regions. Traditionally, global climatologies have been produced by combining station observations and physiographic predictors like latitude, longitude, elevation, and slope. While such approaches can work well, especially in areas with reasonably dense observation networks, the fundamental relationship between physiographic variables and the target climate variables can often be indirect and spatially complex. Infrared and microwave satellite observations, on the other hand, directly monitor the earth's energy emissions. These emissions often correspond physically with the location and intensity of precipitation. We show that these relationships provide a good basis for building global climatologies. We also introduce a new geospatial modeling approach based on moving window regressions and inverse distance weighting interpolation. This approach combines satellite fields, gridded physiographic indicators, and in situ climate normals. The resulting global 0.05° monthly precipitation climatology, the Climate

Precipitation diagram of calcium carbonate polymorphs: its construction and significance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kawano, Jun; Shimobayashi, Norimasa; Miyake, Akira; Kitamura, Masao

2009-01-01

In order to interpret the formation mechanism of calcium carbonate polymorphs, we propose and construct a new 'precipitation diagram', which has two variables: the driving force for nucleation and temperature. The precipitation experiments were carried out by mixing calcium chloride and sodium carbonate aqueous solutions. As a result, a calcite-vaterite co-precipitation zone, a vaterite precipitation zone, a vaterite-aragonite co-precipitation zone and an aragonite precipitation zone can be defined. Theoretical considerations suggest that the steady state nucleation theory can explain well the appearance of these four zones, and the first-order importance of the temperature dependency of surface free energy in the nucleation of aragonite. Furthermore, the addition of an impurity will likely result in the change of these energies, and this precipitation diagram gives a new basis for interpreting the nature of the polymorphs precipitated in both inorganic and biological environments.

Precipitation and ice core isotopes from the Asian Summer Monsoon region reflect coherent ENSO variability

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Z.; Tian, L.; Bowen, G. J.

2017-12-01

Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

DISSOLUTION OF LANTHANUM FLUORIDE PRECIPITATES

Science.gov (United States)

Fries, B.A.

1959-11-10

A plutonium separatory ore concentration procedure involving the use of a fluoride type of carrier is presented. An improvement is given in the derivation step in the process for plutonium recovery by carrier precipitation of plutonium values from solution with a lanthanum fluoride carrier precipitate and subsequent derivation from the resulting plutonium bearing carrier precipitate of an aqueous acidic plutonium-containing solution. The carrier precipitate is contacted with a concentrated aqueous solution of potassium carbonate to effect dissolution therein of at least a part of the precipitate, including the plutonium values. Any remaining precipitate is separated from the resulting solution and dissolves in an aqueous solution containing at least 20% by weight of potassium carbonate. The reacting solutions are combined, and an alkali metal hydroxide added to a concentration of at least 2N to precipitate lanthanum hydroxide concomitantly carrying plutonium values.

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Guyette, Richard; Stambaugh, Michael C; Dey, Daniel; Muzika, Rose Marie

2017-01-01

The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI). The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1) the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel) and 2) the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture). These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1) precipitation insensitive, 2) precipitation unstable, and 3) precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature.

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard Guyette

Full Text Available The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI. The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1 the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel and 2 the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture. These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1 precipitation insensitive, 2 precipitation unstable, and 3 precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature.

Precipitation-productivity Relation in Grassland in Northern China: Investigations at Multiple Spatiotemporal Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Z.

2017-12-01

Climate change is predicted to cause dramatic variability in precipitation regime, not only in terms of change in annual precipitation amount, but also in precipitation seasonal distribution and precipitation event characteristics (high frenquency extrem precipitation, larger but fewer precipitation events), which combined to influence productivity of grassland in arid and semiarid regions. In this study, combining remote sensing products with in-situ measurements of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and gross primary productivity (GPP) data from eddy covariance system in grassland of northern China, we quantified the effects of spatio-temporal vairation in precipitation on productivity from local sites to region scale. We found that, for an individual precipitation event, the duration of GPP-response to the individual precipitation event and the maximum absolute GPP response induced by the individual precipitation event increased linearly with the size of precipitation events. Comparison of the productivity-precipitation relationships between multi-sites determined that the predominant characteristics of precipitation events (PEC) that affected GPP differed remarkably between the water-limited temperate steppe and the temperature-limited alpine meadow. The number of heavy precipitation events (>10 mm d-1) was the most important PEC to impact GPP in the temperate steppe through affecting soil moisture at different soil profiles, while precipitation interval was the factor that affected GPP most in the alpine meadow via its effects on temperature. At the region scale, shape of ANPP-precipitation relationship varies with distinct spatial scales, and besides annual precipitation, precipitation seasonal distribution also has comparable impacts on spatial variation in ANPP. Temporal variability in ANPP was lower at both the dry and wet end, and peaked at a precipitation of 243.1±3.5mm, which is the transition region between typical steppe and desert steppe

Comparing NEXRAD Operational Precipitation Estimates and Raingage Observations of Intense Precipitation in the Missouri River Basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, C. B.

2002-05-01

Accurate observation of precipitation is critical to the study and modeling of land surface hydrologic processes. NEXRAD radar-based precipitation estimates are increasingly used in field experiments, hydrologic modeling, and water and energy budget studies due to their high spatial and temporal resolution, national coverage, and perceived accuracy. Extensive development and testing of NEXRAD precipitation algorithms have been carried out in the Southern Plains. Previous studies (Young et al. 2000, Young et al. 1999, Smith et al. 1996) indicate that NEXRAD operational products tend to underestimate precipitation at light rain rates. This study investigates the performance of NEXRAD precipitation estimates of high-intensity rainfall, focusing on flood-producing storms in the Missouri River Basin. NEXRAD estimates for these storms are compared with data from multiple raingage networks, including NWS recording and non-recording gages and ALERT raingage data for the Kansas City metropolitan area. Analyses include comparisons of gage and radar data at a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Particular attention is paid to the October 4th, 1998, storm that produced severe flooding in Kansas City. NOTE: The phrase `NEXRAD operational products' in this abstract includes precipitation estimates generated using the Stage III and P1 algorithms. Both of these products estimate hourly accumulations on the (approximately) 4 km HRAP grid.

A subgrid parameterization scheme for precipitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Turner

2012-04-01

Full Text Available With increasing computing power, the horizontal resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP models is improving and today reaches 1 to 5 km. Nevertheless, clouds and precipitation formation are still subgrid scale processes for most cloud types, such as cumulus and stratocumulus. Subgrid scale parameterizations for water vapor condensation have been in use for many years and are based on a prescribed probability density function (PDF of relative humidity spatial variability within the model grid box, thus providing a diagnosis of the cloud fraction. A similar scheme is developed and tested here. It is based on a prescribed PDF of cloud water variability and a threshold value of liquid water content for droplet collection to derive a rain fraction within the model grid. Precipitation of rainwater raises additional concerns relative to the overlap of cloud and rain fractions, however. The scheme is developed following an analysis of data collected during field campaigns in stratocumulus (DYCOMS-II and fair weather cumulus (RICO and tested in a 1-D framework against large eddy simulations of these observed cases. The new parameterization is then implemented in a 3-D NWP model with a horizontal resolution of 2.5 km to simulate real cases of precipitating cloud systems over France.

The Interdecadal Variability of Summer Precipitation over the South of China and its Response to Asian Monsoon at the Turning Points of Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Huan; Li, Dongliang

2017-04-01

Under the background of global warming, decadal variability of the summer precipitation in the South of China and the Asian monsoon experienced mutations at around the end of 1970s, the beginning of 1990s and 21st century. We examined the external and internal forcings which may cause the mutations and diagnosed the mechanism. Human emission of CO2 has always been the fatal reason for global warming, and it is also the primary reason for the precipitation increasing over Yangtze-Huai river basin at the end of the 1970s. The Yangtze-Huai river basin and South China demonstrated more summer rainfall after 1993. This can be explained by the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon caused by the positive anomaly of summer SST over northwest Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. A significant trend in the enhancement of sensible heat over the TP has exerted some considerable influence on the reinforce of the EASM, accompanied by the northward migration of the summer precipitation belt shifting northward at the beginning of 21st century.

Ice nucleation active particles are efficiently removed by precipitating clouds

OpenAIRE

Emiliano Stopelli; Franz Conen; Cindy E. Morris; Erik Herrmann; Nicolas Bukowiecki; Christine Alewell

2015-01-01

Ice nucleation in cold clouds is a decisive step in the formation of rain and snow. Observations and modelling suggest that variations in the concentrations of ice nucleating particles (INPs) affect timing, location and amount of precipitation. A quantitative description of the abundance and variability of INPs is crucial to assess and predict their influence on precipitation. Here we used the hydrological indicator δ(18)O to derive the fraction of water vapour lost from precipitating clouds ...

Stable Isotopes in Precipitation over Indonesia Maritime Continent

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ichiyanagi, K. [Graduate School of Science and Technology, Kumamoto University, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) (Japan); Suwarman, R. [Graduate School of Science and Technology, Kumamoto University (Japan); Yamanaka, M. D. [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) (Japan)

2013-07-15

Daily variability of stable isotopes in precipitation was observed at 6 stations in the Indonesian Maritime Continent from 2000 to 2006. The annual mean {delta}{sup 18}O at Bukit Kototabang (GAW), Jambi, and Makassar are heavier than those for others. The precipitation amount effect was observed only at Denpasar and Makassar. There are 2 groups resulting from the local Meteoric Water line; (1) slope is nearly 7.0 and high d-excess more than 10 at GAW, Denpasar, and Manado, (2) slope is around 7.4 and low d-excess less than 7.5 per mille at Jambi, Makassar, and Palau. Seasonal variability of {delta}{sup 18}O and d-excess were classified into three patterns. There are no seasonal variations in {delta}{sup 18}O and d-excess at GAW and Jambi, but clear seasonal variations at Denpasar (DPS) and Makassar (MKS). Due to the amount effect, {delta}{sup 18}O in precipitation is high when the precipitation amount is low from May to october. In contrast, the amount effect is not significant and d-excess is constant throughout the year in Manado and Palau. The {delta}{sup 18}O in precipitation at 2 stations located in sumatra Island corresponded with the Madden-Jullian Oscillation index, while those for the other 4 stations in more easterly locations did not. This finding indicates that water vapour evaporated from the Indian Ocean can reach the Island of sumatra, but can't reach more easterly locations. (author)

Validation of China-wide interpolated daily climate variables from 1960 to 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Wenping; Xu, Bing; Chen, Zhuoqi; Xia, Jiangzhou; Xu, Wenfang; Chen, Yang; Wu, Xiaoxu; Fu, Yang

2015-02-01

on the performance of these variables in estimating daily variations, interannual variability, and extreme events. Although longitude, latitude, and elevation data are included in the model, additional information, such as topography and cloud cover, should be integrated into the interpolation algorithm to improve performance in estimating wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation.

Precipitation Matters

Science.gov (United States)

McDuffie, Thomas

2007-01-01

Although weather, including its role in the water cycle, is included in most elementary science programs, any further examination of raindrops and snowflakes is rare. Together rain and snow make up most of the precipitation that replenishes Earth's life-sustaining fresh water supply. When viewed individually, raindrops and snowflakes are quite…

Precipitation Dynamical Downscaling Over the Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Xiao-Ming; Xue, Ming; McPherson, Renee A.; Martin, Elinor; Rosendahl, Derek H.; Qiao, Lei

2018-02-01

Detailed, regional climate projections, particularly for precipitation, are critical for many applications. Accurate precipitation downscaling in the United States Great Plains remains a great challenge for most Regional Climate Models, particularly for warm months. Most previous dynamic downscaling simulations significantly underestimate warm-season precipitation in the region. This study aims to achieve a better precipitation downscaling in the Great Plains with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. To this end, WRF simulations with different physics schemes and nudging strategies are first conducted for a representative warm season. Results show that different cumulus schemes lead to more pronounced difference in simulated precipitation than other tested physics schemes. Simply choosing different physics schemes is not enough to alleviate the dry bias over the southern Great Plains, which is related to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the central and western parts of continental U.S. in the simulations. Spectral nudging emerges as an effective solution for alleviating the precipitation bias. Spectral nudging ensures that large and synoptic-scale circulations are faithfully reproduced while still allowing WRF to develop small-scale dynamics, thus effectively suppressing the large-scale circulation anomaly in the downscaling. As a result, a better precipitation downscaling is achieved. With the carefully validated configurations, WRF downscaling is conducted for 1980-2015. The downscaling captures well the spatial distribution of monthly climatology precipitation and the monthly/yearly variability, showing improvement over at least two previously published precipitation downscaling studies. With the improved precipitation downscaling, a better hydrological simulation over the trans-state Oologah watershed is also achieved.

Global Precipitation Measurement Poster

Science.gov (United States)

Azarbarzin, Art

2010-01-01

This poster presents an overview of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation of satellites which are designed to measure the Earth's precipitation. It includes the schedule of launches for the various satellites in the constellation, and the coverage of the constellation, It also reviews the mission capabilities, and the mission science objectives.

On Some Aspects of Precipitation over Tropical Indian Ocean Using Satellite Data

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.; Sreejith, O.P.

The annual and inter-annual variability of precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean is studied for the period 1979–1997, using satellite data from a variety of sensors. The Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis Precipitation (CMAP...

Distinguishing Southern Africa precipitation response by strength of El Niño events

Science.gov (United States)

Pomposi, C.; Funk, C. C.; Shukla, S.; Magadzire, T.

2017-12-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a leading mode of interannual precipitation variability and the main source of skill for seasonal climate predictions. Interannual precipitation variability linked to ENSO can have drastic impacts on agricultural systems and food resources in the semi-arid tropics, highlighting the need for increased information regarding ENSO's links to sub-seasonal to seasonal precipitation variations. The present work describes a case study on recent precipitation variability during warm ENSO events (i.e. El Niño) for the austral summer rainy season (December-February) in Southern Africa. Using a blending of observational and model data, it is found that the probability distribution of precipitation varies according to the strength of El Niño events. Strong El Niño events show a much clearer tendency for drying than moderate or weak events, which have smaller absolute magnitude anomalies and larger spatial heterogeneity in the precipitation response. A dynamical exploration of the various precipitation responses is also completed. The techniques utilized can be easily expanded to study likelihood of drought during El Niño for a variety of other regions and also provides information about El Niño strength and its influence on regional teleconnections. Finally, this presentation will describe the channels by which seasonal forecasting information is disseminated in the region and utilized by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network to help mitigate the impacts of potential food insecurity crises.

Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Tuttle, Samuel E.; Salvucci, Guido D.

2017-07-01

Identification of causal links in the land-atmosphere system is important for construction and testing of land surface and general circulation models. However, the land and atmosphere are highly coupled and linked by a vast number of complex, interdependent processes. Statistical methods, such as Granger causality, can help to identify feedbacks from observational data, independent of the different parameterizations of physical processes and spatiotemporal resolution effects that influence feedbacks in models. However, statistical causal identification methods can easily be misapplied, leading to erroneous conclusions about feedback strength and sign. Here, we discuss three factors that must be accounted for in determination of causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback in observations and model output: seasonal and interannual variability, precipitation persistence, and endogeneity. The effect of neglecting these factors is demonstrated in simulated and observational data. The results show that long-timescale variability and precipitation persistence can have a substantial effect on detected soil moisture-precipitation feedback strength, while endogeneity has a smaller effect that is often masked by measurement error and thus is more likely to be an issue when analyzing model data or highly accurate observational data.

Snow Precipitation and Snow Cover Climatic Variability for the Period 1971–2009 in the Southwestern Italian Alps: The 2008–2009 Snow Season Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simona Fratianni

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Snow cover greatly influences the climate in the Alpine region and is one of the most relevant parameters for the climate change analysis. Nevertheless, snow precipitation variability is a relatively underexplored field of research because of the lack of long-term, continuous and homogeneous time series. After a historical research aiming to recover continuous records, three high quality time series of snow precipitation and snow depth recorded in the southwestern Italian Alps were analyzed. The comparison between the climatological indices over the 30 years reference period 1971–2000 and the decade 2000–2009 outlined a general decrease in the amount of snow precipitation, and a shift in the seasonal distribution of the snow precipitation in the most recent period. In the analysis of the last decade snow seasons characteristics, the attention was focused on the heavy snowfalls that occurred in Piedmont during the 2008–2009 snow season: MODerate resolution Imager Spectroradiometer (MODIS snow cover products were used to evaluate snow cover extension at different times during the snow season, and the results were set in relation to the temperatures.

Statistical properties of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in South America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. A. Jones

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Given the complex interaction between aerosol, cloud, and atmospheric properties, it is difficult to extract their individual effects to observed rainfall amount. This research uses principle component analysis (PCA that combines Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS aerosol and cloud products, NCEP Reanalysis atmospheric products, and rainrate estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM precipitation radar (PR to assess if aerosols affect warm rain processes. Data collected during September 2006 over the Amazon basin in South America during the biomass-burning season are used. The goal of this research is to combine these observations into a smaller number of variables through PCA with each new variable having a unique physical interpretation. In particular, we are concerned with PC variables whose weightings include aerosol optical thickness (AOT, as these may be an indicator of aerosol indirect effects. If they are indeed occurring, then PC values that include AOT should change as a function of rainrate.

To emphasize the advantage of PCA, changes in aerosol, cloud, and atmospheric observations are compared to rainrate. Comparing no-rain, rain, and heavy rain only (>5 mm h⁻¹ samples, we find that cloud thicknesses, humidity, and upward motion are all greater during rain and heavy rain conditions. However, no statistically significant difference in AOT exists between each sample, indicating that atmospheric conditions are more important to rainfall than aerosol concentrations as expected. If aerosols are affecting warm process clouds, it would be expected that stratiform precipitation would decrease as a function increasing aerosol concentration through either Twomey and/or semi-direct effects. PCA extracts the latter signal in a variable labeled PC2, which explains 15% of the total variance and is second in importance the variable (PC1 containing the broad atmospheric conditions. PC2

The new record of daily precipitation in Lisbon since 1864: diagnosis and impacts of an exceptional precipitation episode

Science.gov (United States)

Fragoso, M.; Trigo, R. M.; Zêzere, J. L.; Valente, M. A.

2009-04-01

On 18 February 2008 the city of Lisbon had its rainiest day on record, i.e. since the establishment of the D. Luís Observatory in 1853 (continuous observations of meteorological variables are only available since 1864). Fortunately a Portuguese funded project (SIGN) allowed to digitize all the data between 1864 and 1941, allowing a proper comparison with previous extreme events and also to compute more significant return periods. We can now state that a new absolute maximum of daily precipitation at this station occurred last 18 February, when 118.4 mm were registered, surpassing the previous maximum of 110.7 mm (observed on 5 December 1876). Interestingly, these record breaking characteristics were confined to the city of Lisbon, not being observed in rural and suburban neighborhoods, where the anterior maxima recorded in 26 November 1967 or 18 November 1983 were not achieved. In fact, this extreme event was relatively uncharacteristic when compared with typical extreme precipitation events in southern Portugal (Fragoso and Tildes Gomes, 2008). These extreme episodes tend to occur preferably in fall (late September until early December) and covering a wider area. In this work we present an extensive analysis of the large-scale and synoptic atmospheric circulation environment leading to this extreme rainstorm as well as the consequences, namely floods and landslides that produced relevant socio-economic impacts (including 4 casualties). This will be achieved through the characterization of the extreme precipitation episode, describing its temporal structure and the geographic incidence of the event and also assessing statistically the exceptionality of the daily rainfall. The study of the atmospheric context of the episode will be performed with Satellite and radar data, complemented by several large-scale fields obtained from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalyses dataset, including sea level pressure, 500 hPa Geopotential height, precipitation rate, CAPE index. FRAGOSO, M

The Implication of Climate Signal for Precipitation in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Wang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studies the stochastic dynamic variability of precipitation, for the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Heihe River basin in Northwest China, by employing Mann-Kendall statistic, Pettitt test, and wavelet transform methods. The possible associations with three prominent climatic patterns, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO, Artic Oscillation (AO, and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD, are examined by using multiscale wavelet coherence method. No significant trend is identified for the interannual precipitation variability. However, about 2-year significant variability is detected for the lower reach of the Heihe River basin, and this dominating precipitation variability is essentially depicted by AO. The possible influences of ENSO are exerted on long-term timescale, 8–16 years. The obtained knowledge is helpful for the predications of extreme hydroclimatological events and better reservoir operations for regional water resources.

Reconstruction of March-June precipitation from tree rings in central Liaoning, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yanchao; Liu, Yu

2017-11-01

A dendrochronological profile was generated from Chinese pines ( Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) in the Qianshan Mountains in northeastern China. Based on correlation analyses, the pattern of precipitation from March to June ( P 36 ) was reconstructed using a simple linear model, which explained 42.7% of the total variance in observed precipitation from 1951 to 2012. The reconstructed P 36 series revealed a consistently increasing trend in precipitation during the twentieth century in the Qianshan Mountains. The reconstructed data showed trends that were similar to those in the variation in trends for March-June precipitation observed at the Shenyang station, the reconstructed January-May precipitation trends in Shenyang City, and the reconstructed average June-September relative humidity for Yiwulü Mountain. The reconstructed data also showed good agreement with the droughts reported in historical documents and recorded by meteorological stations in Liaoning. Spatial correlation analyses show that the reconstructed data reflect the variability in precipitation that occurs over much of northeastern China. In addition, our reconstruction showed a significant periodicity. The significant correlations between the reconstructed P 36 and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sunspot numbers indicate that precipitation variability in the Qianshan Mountain region is probably driven by extensive atmosphere-sea interactions and solar activities.

Tree-ring-based reconstruction of precipitation in the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming, since 1260 A.D

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, S.T.; Fastie, C.L.; Jackson, S.T.; Betancourt, J.L.

2004-01-01

Cores and cross sections from 79 Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and limber pine (Pinus flexilis) trees at four sites in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming and south-central Montana were used to develop a proxy for annual (June-June) precipitation spanning 1260-1998 A.D. The reconstruction exhibits considerable nonstationarity, and the instrumental era (post-1900) in particular fails to capture the full range of precipitation variability experienced in the past ???750 years. Both single-year and decadal-scale dry events were more severe before 1900. Dry spells in the late thirteenth and sixteenth centuries surpass both magnitude and duration of any droughts in the Bighorn Basin after 1900. Precipitation variability appears to shift to a higher-frequency mode after 1750, with 15-20-yr droughts becoming rare. Comparisons between instrumental and reconstructed values of precipitation and indices of Pacific basin variability reveal that precipitation in the Bighorn Basin generally responds to Pacific forcing in a manner similar to that of the southwestern United States (drier during La Nin??a events), but high country precipitation in areas surrounding the basin displays the opposite response (drier during El Nin??o events). ?? 2004 American Meteorological Society.

Sources of uncertainty in future changes in local precipitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rowell, David P. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

2012-10-15

This study considers the large uncertainty in projected changes in local precipitation. It aims to map, and begin to understand, the relative roles of uncertain modelling and natural variability, using 20-year mean data from four perturbed physics or multi-model ensembles. The largest - 280-member - ensemble illustrates a rich pattern in the varying contribution of modelling uncertainty, with similar features found using a CMIP3 ensemble (despite its limited sample size, which restricts it value in this context). The contribution of modelling uncertainty to the total uncertainty in local precipitation change is found to be highest in the deep tropics, particularly over South America, Africa, the east and central Pacific, and the Atlantic. In the moist maritime tropics, the highly uncertain modelling of sea-surface temperature changes is transmitted to a large uncertain modelling of local rainfall changes. Over tropical land and summer mid-latitude continents (and to a lesser extent, the tropical oceans), uncertain modelling of atmospheric processes, land surface processes and the terrestrial carbon cycle all appear to play an additional substantial role in driving the uncertainty of local rainfall changes. In polar regions, inter-model variability of anomalous sea ice drives an uncertain precipitation response, particularly in winter. In all these regions, there is therefore the potential to reduce the uncertainty of local precipitation changes through targeted model improvements and observational constraints. In contrast, over much of the arid subtropical and mid-latitude oceans, over Australia, and over the Sahara in winter, internal atmospheric variability dominates the uncertainty in projected precipitation changes. Here, model improvements and observational constraints will have little impact on the uncertainty of time means shorter than at least 20 years. Last, a supplementary application of the metric developed here is that it can be interpreted as a measure

Simulations of Precipitation Variability over the Upper Rio Grande Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costigan, Keeley R.; Bossert, James E.; Langley, David L.

1997-10-01

In this research, we study Albuquerque's water and how it may be affected by changes in the regional climate, as manifested by variations in Rio Grande water levels. To do this, we rely on the use of coupled atmospheric, runoff, and ground water models. Preliminary work on the project has focused on uncoupled simulations of the aquifer beneath Albuquerque and winter precipitation simulations of the upper Rio Grande Basin. The latter is discussed in this paper

Responses of Mean and Extreme Precipitation to Deforestation in the Maritime Continent

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, C. C.; Lo, M. H.; Yu, J. Y.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change, including tropical deforestation, could have substantial effects on local surface energy and water budgets, and thus on the atmospheric stability which may result in changes in precipitation. Maritime Continent has undergone severe deforestation in recent decades but has received less attention than Amazon or Congo rainforests. Therefore, this study is to decipher the precipitation response to deforestation in the Maritime Continent. We conduct deforestation experiments using Community Earth System Model (CESM) and through converting the tropical rainforest into grassland. The results show that deforestation in Maritime Continent leads to an increase in both mean temperature and mean precipitation. Moisture budget analysis indicates that the increase in precipitation is associated with the vertically integrated vertical moisture advection, especially the dynamic component (changes in convection). In addition, through moist static energy (MSE) budget analysis, we find the atmosphere among deforested areas become unstable owing to the combined effects of positive specific humidity anomalies at around 850 hPa and anomalous warming extended from the surface to 750 hPa. This instability will induce anomalous ascending motion, which could enhance the low-level moisture convergence, providing water vapor from the surrounding warm ocean. To further evaluate the precipitation response to deforestation, we examine the precipitation changes under La Niña events and global warming scenario using CESM Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 simulations. We find that the precipitation increase caused by deforestation in Maritime Continent is comparable in magnitude to that generated by either natural variability or global warming forcing. Besides the changes in mean precipitation, preliminary results show the extreme precipitation also increases. We will further

Calcite precipitates in Slovenian bottled waters.

Science.gov (United States)

Stanič, Tamara Ferjan; Miler, Miloš; Brenčič, Mihael; Gosar, Mateja

2017-06-01

Storage of bottled waters in varying ambient conditions affects its characteristics. Different storage conditions cause changes in the initial chemical composition of bottled water which lead to the occurrence of precipitates with various morphologies. In order to assess the relationship between water composition, storage conditions and precipitate morphology, a study of four brands of Slovenian bottled water stored in PET bottles was carried out. Chemical analyses of the main ions and measurements of the physical properties of water samples were performed before and after storage of water samples at different ambient conditions. SEM/EDS analysis of precipitates was performed after elapsed storage time. The results show that the presence of Mg 2+ , SO 4 2- , SiO 2 , Al, Mn and other impurities such as K + , Na + , Ba and Sr in the water controlled precipitate morphology by inhibiting crystal growth and leading to elongated rhombohedral calcite crystal forms which exhibit furrowed surfaces and calcite rosettes. Different storage conditions, however, affected the number of crystallization nuclei and size of calcite crystals. Hollow calcite spheres composed of cleavage rhombohedrons formed in the water with variable storage conditions by a combination of evaporation and precipitation of water droplets during high temperatures or by the bubble templating method.

Evaluation of spatial and spatiotemporal estimation methods in simulation of precipitation variability patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Bayat, Bardia; Zahraie, Banafsheh; Taghavi, Farahnaz; Nasseri, Mohsen

2013-08-01

Identification of spatial and spatiotemporal precipitation variations plays an important role in different hydrological applications such as missing data estimation. In this paper, the results of Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) and ordinary kriging (OK) are compared for modeling spatial and spatiotemporal variations of annual precipitation with and without incorporating elevation variations. The study area of this research is Namak Lake watershed located in the central part of Iran with an area of approximately 90,000 km2. The BME and OK methods have been used to model the spatial and spatiotemporal variations of precipitation in this watershed, and their performances have been evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results of the case study have shown the superiority of BME over OK in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes. The results have shown that BME estimates are less biased and more accurate than OK. The improvements in the BME estimates are mostly related to incorporating hard and soft data in the estimation process, which resulted in more detailed and reliable results. Estimation error variance for BME results is less than OK estimations in the study area in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes.

Impact of including surface currents on simulation of Indian Ocean variability with the POAMA coupled model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, Mei; Wang, Guomin; Hendon, Harry H.; Alves, Oscar [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne (Australia)

2011-04-15

Impacts on the coupled variability of the Indo-Pacific by including the effects of surface currents on surface stress are explored in four extended integrations of an experimental version of the Bureau of Meteorology's coupled seasonal forecast model POAMA. The first pair of simulations differs only in their treatment of momentum coupling: one version includes the effects of surface currents on the surface stress computation and the other does not. The version that includes the effect of surface currents has less mean-state bias in the equatorial Pacific cold tongue but produces relatively weak coupled variability in the Tropics, especially that related to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The version without the effects of surface currents has greater bias in the Pacific cold tongue but stronger IOD and ENSO variability. In order to diagnose the role of changes in local coupling from changes in remote forcing by ENSO for causing changes in IOD variability, a second set of simulations is conducted where effects of surface currents are included only in the Indian Ocean and only in the Pacific Ocean. IOD variability is found to be equally reduced by inclusion of the local effects of surface currents in the Indian Ocean and by the reduction of ENSO variability as a result of including effects of surface currents in the Pacific. Some implications of these results for predictability of the IOD and its dependence on ENSO, and for ocean subsurface data assimilation are discussed. (orig.)

Interannual variability in water storage over 2003-2008 in the Amazon Basin from GRACE space gravimetry, in situ river level and precipitation data

OpenAIRE

Xavier , L.; Becker , M.; Cazenave , A.; Longuevergne , L.; Llovel , W.; Rotunno Filho , Otto Correa

2012-01-01

International audience; We investigate the interannual variability over 2003-2008 of different hydrological parameters in the Amazon river basin: (1) vertically-integrated water storage from the GRACE space gravimetry mission, (2) surface water level of the Amazon River and its tributaries from in situ gauge stations, and (3) precipitation. We analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of total water storage from GRACE and in situ river level along the Amazon River and its main tributaries and not...

Interpolative mapping of mean precipitation in the Baltic countries by using landscape characteristics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kalle Remm

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Maps of the long-term mean precipitation involving local landscape variables were generated for the Baltic countries, and the effectiveness of seven modelling methods was compared. The precipitation data were recorded in 245 meteorological stations in 1966–2005, and 51 location-related explanatory variables were used. The similarity-based reasoning in the Constud software system outperformed other methods according to the validation fit, except for spring. The multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS was another effective method on average. The inclusion of landscape variables, compared to reverse distance-weighted interpolation, highlights the effect of uplands, larger water bodies and forested areas. The long-term mean amount of precipitation, calculated as the station average, probably underestimates the real value for Estonia and overestimates it for Lithuania due to the uneven distribution of observation stations.

The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present)

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Xie, Ping-Ping; Janowiak, John; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David

2003-01-01

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version 2 Monthly Precipitation Analysis is described. This globally complete, monthly analysis of surface precipitation at 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees latitude-longitude resolution is available from January 1979 to the present. It is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit-satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The merging approach utilizes the higher accuracy of the low-orbit microwave observations to calibrate, or adjust, the more frequent geosynchronous infrared observations. The data set is extended back into the premicrowave era (before 1987) by using infrared-only observations calibrated to the microwave-based analysis of the later years. The combined satellite-based product is adjusted by the raingauge analysis. This monthly analysis is the foundation for the GPCP suite of products including those at finer temporal resolution, satellite estimate, and error estimates for each field. The 23-year GPCP climatology is characterized, along with time and space variations of precipitation.

Linking precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture content for the improvement of predictability over land

Science.gov (United States)

Catalano, Franco; Alessandri, Andrea; De Felice, Matteo

2013-04-01

Climate change scenarios are expected to show an intensification of the hydrological cycle together with modifications of evapotranspiration and soil moisture content. Evapotranspiration changes have been already evidenced for the end of the 20th century. The variance of evapotranspiration has been shown to be strongly related to the variance of precipitation over land. Nevertheless, the feedbacks between evapotranspiration, soil moisture and precipitation have not yet been completely understood at present-day. Furthermore, soil moisture reservoirs are associated to a memory and thus their proper initialization may have a strong influence on predictability. In particular, the linkage between precipitation and soil moisture is modulated by the effects on evapotranspiration. Therefore, the investigation of the coupling between these variables appear to be of primary importance for the improvement of predictability over the continents. The coupled manifold (CM) technique (Navarra and Tribbia 2005) is a method designed to separate the effects of the variability of two variables which are connected. This method has proved to be successful for the analysis of different climate fields, like precipitation, vegetation and sea surface temperature. In particular, the coupled variables reveal patterns that may be connected with specific phenomena, thus providing hints regarding potential predictability. In this study we applied the CM to recent observational datasets of precipitation (from CRU), evapotranspiration (from GIMMS and MODIS satellite-based estimates) and soil moisture content (from ESA) spanning a time period of 23 years (1984-2006) with a monthly frequency. Different data stratification (monthly, seasonal, summer JJA) have been employed to analyze the persistence of the patterns and their characteristical time scales and seasonality. The three variables considered show a significant coupling among each other. Interestingly, most of the signal of the

Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation inferred from streamflow observations across the Sierra Nevada mountain range

Science.gov (United States)

Henn, Brian; Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Newman, Andrew J.; Hughes, Mimi; McGurk, Bruce; Lundquist, Jessica D.

2018-01-01

Given uncertainty in precipitation gauge-based gridded datasets over complex terrain, we use multiple streamflow observations as an additional source of information about precipitation, in order to identify spatial and temporal differences between a gridded precipitation dataset and precipitation inferred from streamflow. We test whether gridded datasets capture across-crest and regional spatial patterns of variability, as well as year-to-year variability and trends in precipitation, in comparison to precipitation inferred from streamflow. We use a Bayesian model calibration routine with multiple lumped hydrologic model structures to infer the most likely basin-mean, water-year total precipitation for 56 basins with long-term (>30 year) streamflow records in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. We compare basin-mean precipitation derived from this approach with basin-mean precipitation from a precipitation gauge-based, 1/16° gridded dataset that has been used to simulate and evaluate trends in Western United States streamflow and snowpack over the 20th century. We find that the long-term average spatial patterns differ: in particular, there is less precipitation in the gridded dataset in higher-elevation basins whose aspect faces prevailing cool-season winds, as compared to precipitation inferred from streamflow. In a few years and basins, there is less gridded precipitation than there is observed streamflow. Lower-elevation, southern, and east-of-crest basins show better agreement between gridded and inferred precipitation. Implied actual evapotranspiration (calculated as precipitation minus streamflow) then also varies between the streamflow-based estimates and the gridded dataset. Absolute uncertainty in precipitation inferred from streamflow is substantial, but the signal of basin-to-basin and year-to-year differences are likely more robust. The findings suggest that considering streamflow when spatially distributing precipitation in complex terrain

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate*

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bonfils, Céline J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

2015-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. Most climate models project an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. However, it is unclear how other aspects of ENSO and ENSO-driven teleconnections will evolve in the future. Here, we identify in 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) observations a time-invariant ENSO-like (ENSOL) pattern that is largely uncontaminated by GHG forcing. We use this pattern to investigate the future precipitation (P) response to ENSO-like SST anomalies. Models that better capture observed ENSOL characteristics produce P teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with observations and more stationary in the 21st century. We decompose the future P response to ENSOL into the sum of three terms: (1) the change in P mean state, (2) the historical P response to ENSOL, and (3) a future enhancement in the P response to ENSOL. In many regions, this last term can aggravate the P extremes associated with ENSO variability. This simple decomposition allows us to identify regions likely to experience ENSOL-induced P changes that are without precedent in the current climate.

3800 Years of Quantitative Precipitation Reconstruction from the Northwest Yucatan Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Carrillo-Bastos, Alicia; Islebe, Gerald A.; Torrescano-Valle, Nuria

2013-01-01

Precipitation over the last 3800 years has been reconstructed using modern pollen calibration and precipitation data. A transfer function was then performed via the linear method of partial least squares. By calculating precipitation anomalies, it is estimated that precipitation deficits were greater than surpluses, reaching 21% and <9%, respectively. The period from 50 BC to 800 AD was the driest of the record. The drought related to the abandonment of the Maya Preclassic period featured a 21% reduction in precipitation, while the drought of the Maya collapse (800 to 860 AD) featured a reduction of 18%. The Medieval Climatic Anomaly was a period of positive phases (3.8–7.6%). The Little Ice Age was a period of climatic variability, with reductions in precipitation but without deficits. PMID:24391940

Decadal changes in extreme daily precipitation in Greece

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. T. Nastos

2008-04-01

Full Text Available The changes in daily precipitation totals in Greece, during the 45-year period (1957–2001 are examined. The precipitation datasets concern daily totals recorded at 21 surface meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, which are uniformly distributed over the Greek region. First and foremost, the application of Factor Analysis resulted in grouping the meteorological stations with similar variation in time. The main sub groups represent the northern, southern, western, eastern and central regions of Greece with common precipitation characteristics. For representative stations of the extracted sub groups we estimated the trends and the time variability for the number of days (% exceeding 30 mm (equal to the 95% percentile of daily precipitation for eastern and western regions and equal to the 97.5% percentile for the rest of the country and 50 mm which is the threshold for very extreme and rare events. Furthermore, the scale and shape parameters of the well fitted gamma distribution to the daily precipitation data with respect to the whole examined period and to the 10-year sub periods reveal the changes in the intensity of the precipitation.

Precipitation, density, and population dynamics of desert bighorn sheep on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Bender, L.C.; Weisenberger, M.E.

2005-01-01

Understanding the determinants of population size and performance for desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis mexicana) is critical to develop effective recovery and management strategies. In arid environments, plant communities and consequently herbivore populations are strongly dependent upon precipitation, which is highly variable seasonally and annually. We conducted a retrospective exploratory analysis of desert bighorn sheep population dynamics on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), New Mexico, 1941-1976, by modeling sheep population size as a function of previous population sizes and precipitation. Population size and trend of desert bighorn were best and well described (R 2=0.89) by a model that included only total annual precipitation as a covariate. Models incorporating density-dependence, delayed density-dependence, and combinations of density and precipitation were less informative than the model containing precipitation alone (??AlCc=8.5-22.5). Lamb:female ratios were positively related to precipitation (current year: F1,34=7.09, P=0.012; previous year: F1,33=3.37, P=0.075) but were unrelated to population size (current year. F1,34=0.04, P=0.843; previous year: F1,33 =0.14, P=0.715). Instantaneous population rate of increase (r) was related to population size (F1,33=5.55; P=0.025). Precipitation limited populations of desert bighorn sheep on SANWR primarily in a density-independent manner by affecting production or survival of lambs, likely through influences on forage quantity and quality. Habitat evaluations and recovery plans for desert bighorn sheep need to consider fundamental influences on desert bighorn populations such as precipitation and food, rather than focus solely on proximate issues such as security cover, predation, and disease. Moreover, the concept of carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep may need re-evaluation in respect to highly variable (CV =35.6%) localized precipitation patterns. On SANWR carrying capacity for desert

Modeling of present and Eemian stable water isotopes in precipitation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sjolte, Jesper

The subject of this thesis is the modeling of the isotopic temperature proxies d18O, dD and deuterium excess in precipitation. Two modeling studies were carried out, one using the regional climate model, and one using a global climate model. In the regional study the model was run for the period ...... the modeled isotopes do not agree with ice core data. The discrepancy between the model output and the ice core data is attributed to the boundary conditions, where changes in ice sheets and vegetation have not been accounted for.......The subject of this thesis is the modeling of the isotopic temperature proxies d18O, dD and deuterium excess in precipitation. Two modeling studies were carried out, one using the regional climate model, and one using a global climate model. In the regional study the model was run for the period...... 1959 to 2001 using meteorological data and a domain including Greenland and the surrounding North Atlantic. The model was found to reproduce the observed seasonal variability of temperature and precipitation well. In comparison with ice core data from Greenland and observations from coastal stations...

Radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimation in complex terrain over the eastern Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Gou, Yabin; Ma, Yingzhao; Chen, Haonan; Wen, Yixin

2018-05-01

Quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is one of the important applications of weather radars. However, in complex terrain such as Tibetan Plateau, it is a challenging task to obtain an optimal Z-R relation due to the complex spatial and temporal variability in precipitation microphysics. This paper develops two radar QPE schemes respectively based on Reflectivity Threshold (RT) and Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithms using observations from 11 Doppler weather radars and 3264 rain gauges over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP). These two QPE methodologies are evaluated extensively using four precipitation events that are characterized by different meteorological features. Precipitation characteristics of independent storm cells associated with these four events, as well as the storm-scale differences, are investigated using short-term vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR) clusters. Evaluation results show that the SCIT-based rainfall approach performs better than the simple RT-based method for all precipitation events in terms of score comparison using validation gauge measurements as references. It is also found that the SCIT-based approach can effectively mitigate the local error of radar QPE and represent the precipitation spatiotemporal variability better than the RT-based scheme.

On the complex conductivity signatures of calcite precipitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu, Yuxin; Hubbard, Susan; Williams, Kenneth Hurst; Ajo-Franklin, Jonathan

2009-11-01

Calcite is a mineral phase that frequently precipitates during subsurface remediation or geotechnical engineering processes. This precipitation can lead to changes in the overall behavior of the system, such as flow alternation and soil strengthening. Because induced calcite precipitation is typically quite variable in space and time, monitoring its distribution in the subsurface is a challenge. In this research, we conducted a laboratory column experiment to investigate the potential of complex conductivity as a mean to remotely monitor calcite precipitation. Calcite precipitation was induced in a glass bead (3 mm) packed column through abiotic mixing of CaCl{sub 2} and Na{sub 2}CO{sub 3} solutions. The experiment continued for 12 days with a constant precipitation rate of {approx}0.6 milimole/d. Visual observations and scanning electron microscopy imaging revealed two distinct phases of precipitation: an earlier phase dominated by well distributed, discrete precipitates and a later phase characterized by localized precipitate aggregation and associated pore clogging. Complex conductivity measurements exhibited polarization signals that were characteristic of both phases of calcite precipitation, with the precipitation volume and crystal size controlling the overall polarization magnitude and relaxation time constant. We attribute the observed responses to polarization at the electrical double layer surrounding calcite crystals. Our experiment illustrates the potential of electrical methods for characterizing the distribution and aggregation state of nonconductive minerals like calcite. Advancing our ability to quantify geochemical transformations using such noninvasive methods is expected to facilitate our understanding of complex processes associated with natural subsurface systems as well as processes induced through engineered treatments (such as environmental remediation and carbon sequestration).

Vegetation anomalies caused by antecedent precipitation in most of the world

Science.gov (United States)

Papagiannopoulou, C.; Miralles, D. G.; Dorigo, W. A.; Verhoest, N. E. C.; Depoorter, M.; Waegeman, W.

2017-07-01

Quantifying environmental controls on vegetation is critical to predict the net effect of climate change on global ecosystems and the subsequent feedback on climate. Following a non-linear Granger causality framework based on a random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of multi-decadal satellite data records to uncover the main drivers of monthly vegetation variability at the global scale. Results indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation globally: about 61% of the vegetated surface was primarily water-limited during 1981-2010. This included semiarid climates but also transitional ecoregions. Intra-annually, temperature controls Northern Hemisphere deciduous forests during the growing season, while antecedent precipitation largely dominates vegetation dynamics during the senescence period. The uncovered dependency of global vegetation on water availability is substantially larger than previously reported. This is owed to the ability of the framework to (1) disentangle the co-linearities between radiation/temperature and precipitation, and (2) quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our results reveal a prolonged effect of precipitation anomalies in dry regions: due to the long memory of soil moisture and the cumulative, non-linear, response of vegetation, water-limited regions show sensitivity to the values of precipitation occurring three months earlier. Meanwhile, the impacts of temperature and radiation anomalies are more immediate and dissipate shortly, pointing to a higher resilience of vegetation to these anomalies. Despite being infrequent by definition, hydro-climatic extremes are responsible for up to 10% of the vegetation variability during the 1981-2010 period in certain areas, particularly in water-limited ecosystems. Our approach is a first step towards a quantitative comparison of the resistance and resilience signature of different ecosystems, and can be used to benchmark Earth

Metals and metalloids in precipitation collected during CHINARE campaign from Shanghai, China, to Zhongshan Station, Antarctica: Spatial variability and source identification

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, G.; Teng, J.; Ma, H.; Li, Y.; Sun, B.

2015-06-01

Metals and metalloids in continental precipitation have been widely observed, but the data over open oceans are still very limited. Investigation of metals and metalloids in marine precipitation is of great significance to understand global transport of these elements in the atmosphere and their input fluxes to the oceans. So shipboard sampling of precipitation was conducted during a Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition campaign from Shanghai, China, to Zhongshan Station, East Antarctica, and 22 samples (including 17 rainfall and 5 snowfall events) were collected and analyzed for concentrations of Pb, Ni, Cr, Cu, Co, Hg, As, Cd, Sb, Se, Zn, Mn, and Ti. Results show that concentrations of both metals and metalloids vary considerably along the cruise, with higher concentrations at coastal sites and lower values on the south Indian Ocean. Although only soluble fractions were determined for elements, concentrations in this study are generally comparable to the reported values of marine rain. Enrichment factor analysis shows that most of metals and metalloids are enriched versus crustal sources, even in the samples collected from remote south Indian Ocean. In addition, metals and metalloids in precipitation are also very enriched above sea-salt abundance, indicating that impacts of sea-salt aerosols on their concentrations are negligible. Main sources of metals and metalloids were explored with the aid of multivariate statistical analyses. The results show that human emissions have far-reaching distribution, which may exert an important influence on the solubility of elements in precipitation. This investigation provides valuable information on spatial variation and possible sources of trace elements in precipitation over the open oceans corresponding to understudied region.

Interannual variability of a precipitation gradient along the semi-arid catchment areas for the metropolitan region of Lima- Peru in relation to atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, Marco; Seidel, Jochen; Trachte, Katja

2013-04-01

The main moisture source for precipitation on the western slopes of the Central Andes is located east of the mountain range known as the Amazon basin. However, the Andean mountains, which reach up to 6000 m a.s.l., strongly influence climatic conditions along the Pacific coastline of South America as a climatic barrier for the low-level tropospheric flow and associated moisture transport from the Amazon basin. Additional, large scale subsidence caused by the South Pacific High inhabits convective rainfall at the Pacific coast where large metropolitan areas such as the Peruvian capital Lima are located. Two contrasts in precipitation can be found while crossing the Andean mountains from West to East. On the Pacific coast, at the location of the metropolitan area of Lima, no more than 10 mm mean annual rainfall occurs. In contrast, up to 1000 mm mean annual rainfall occur only 100 km east of Lima within the upper region (4000 m .a.s.l.) of the Western Cordillera. The transition takes place along the western slopes of the Western Cordillera and is characterised by a strong precipitation gradient. Here, catchment areas are located that provide most of the water resources needed to sustain an urban area of approximately 10 million people. This study investigates the interannual variability of the precipitation gradient between 1998 and 2012. The analysis is based on daily precipitation data of 22 rain gauge station, daily rainfall data of the Tropical Rainfall Mission (TRMM 3B42) at 0.25 degrees and reanalysis data at 36 km spatial resolution at the mesoscale. The reanalysis data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Station data was provided by the Peruvian weather service during the project "Sustainable Water and Wastewater Management in Urban Growth Centres Coping with Climate Change - Concepts for Lima Metropolitana (Peru) (LiWa)", which is financed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). We are interested in the

Dryland ecosystem responses to precipitation extremes and wildfire at a long-term rainfall manipulation experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, R. F.; Collins, S. L.

2017-12-01

Climate is becoming increasingly more variable due to global environmental change, which is evidenced by fewer, but more extreme precipitation events, changes in precipitation seasonality, and longer, higher severity droughts. These changes, combined with a rising incidence of wildfire, have the potential to strongly impact net primary production (NPP) and key biogeochemical cycles, particularly in dryland ecosystems where NPP is sequentially limited by water and nutrient availability. Here we utilize a ten-year dataset from an ongoing long-term field experiment established in 2007 in which we experimentally altered monsoon rainfall variability to examine how our manipulations, along with naturally occurring events, affect NPP and associated biogeochemical cycles in a semi-arid grassland in central New Mexico, USA. Using long-term regional averages, we identified extremely wet monsoon years (242.8 mm, 2013), and extremely dry monsoon years (86.0 mm, 2011; 80.0 mm, 2015) and water years (117.0 mm, 2011). We examined how changes in precipitation variability and extreme events affected ecosystem processes and function particularly in the context of ecosystem recovery following a 2009 wildfire. Response variables included above- and below-ground plant biomass (ANPP & BNPP) and abundance, soil nitrogen availability, and soil CO2 efflux. Mean ANPP ranged from 3.6 g m-2 in 2011 to 254.5 g m-2 in 2013, while BNPP ranged from 23.5 g m-2 in 2015 to 194.2 g m-2 in 2013, demonstrating NPP in our semi-arid grassland is directly linked to extremes in both seasonal and annual precipitation. We also show increased nitrogen deposition positively affects NPP in unburned grassland, but has no significant impact on NPP post-fire except during extremely wet monsoon years. While soil respiration rates reflect lower ANPP post-fire, patterns in CO2 efflux have not been shown to change significantly in that efflux is greatest following large precipitation events preceded by longer drying

A space and time scale-dependent nonlinear geostatistical approach for downscaling daily precipitation and temperature

KAUST Repository

Jha, Sanjeev Kumar

2015-07-21

A geostatistical framework is proposed to downscale daily precipitation and temperature. The methodology is based on multiple-point geostatistics (MPS), where a multivariate training image is used to represent the spatial relationship between daily precipitation and daily temperature over several years. Here, the training image consists of daily rainfall and temperature outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 50 km and 10 km resolution for a twenty year period ranging from 1985 to 2004. The data are used to predict downscaled climate variables for the year 2005. The result, for each downscaled pixel, is daily time series of precipitation and temperature that are spatially dependent. Comparison of predicted precipitation and temperature against a reference dataset indicates that both the seasonal average climate response together with the temporal variability are well reproduced. The explicit inclusion of time dependence is explored by considering the climate properties of the previous day as an additional variable. Comparison of simulations with and without inclusion of time dependence shows that the temporal dependence only slightly improves the daily prediction because the temporal variability is already well represented in the conditioning data. Overall, the study shows that the multiple-point geostatistics approach is an efficient tool to be used for statistical downscaling to obtain local scale estimates of precipitation and temperature from General Circulation Models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Key drivers of precipitation isotopes in Windhoek, Namibia (2012-2016)

Science.gov (United States)

Kaseke, K. F.; Wang, L.; Wanke, H.

2017-12-01

Southern African climate is characterized by large variability with precipitation model estimates varying by as much as 70% during summer. This difference between model estimates is partly because most models associate precipitation over Southern Africa with moisture inputs from the Indian Ocean while excluding inputs from the Atlantic Ocean. However, growing evidence suggests that the Atlantic Ocean may also contribute significant amounts of moisture to the region. This four-year (2012-2016) study investigates the isotopic composition (δ18O, δ2H and δ17O) of event-scale precipitation events, the key drivers of isotope variations and the origins of precipitation experienced in Windhoek, Namibia. Results indicate large storm-to-storm isotopic variability δ18O (25‰), δ2H (180‰) and δ17O (13‰) over the study period. Univariate analysis showed significant correlations between event precipitation isotopes and local meteorological parameters; lifted condensation level, relative humidity (RH), precipitation amount, average wind speed, surface and air temperature (p < 0.05). The number of significant correlations between local meteorological parameters and monthly isotopes was much lower suggesting loss of information through data aggregation. Nonetheless, the most significant isotope driver at both event and monthly scales was RH, consistent with the semi-arid classification of the site. Multiple linear regression analysis suggested RH, precipitation amount and air temperature were the most significant local drivers of precipitation isotopes accounting for about 50% of the variation implying that about 50% could be attributed to source origins. HYSLPIT trajectories indicated that 78% of precipitation originated from the Indian Ocean while 21% originated from the Atlantic Ocean. Given that three of the four study years were droughts while two of the three drought years were El Niño related, our data also suggests that δ'17O-δ'18O could be a useful tool to

Effect of wine dilution on the reliability of tannin analysis by protein precipitation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jacob Skibsted; Werge, Hans Henrik Malmborg; Egebo, Max

2008-01-01

A reported analytical method for tannin quantification relies on selective precipitation of tannins with bovine serum albumin. The reliability of tannin analysis by protein precipitation on wines having variable tannin levels was evaluated by measuring the tannin concentration of various dilutions...... of five commercial red wines. Tannin concentrations of both very diluted and concentrated samples were systematically underestimated, which could be explained by a precipitation threshold and insufficient protein for precipitation, respectively. Based on these findings, we have defined a valid range...... of the tannin response in the protein precipitation-tannin assay, which suffers minimally from these problems....

A south equatorial African precipitation dipole and the associated atmospheric circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Dezfuli, A. K.; Zaitchik, B.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2013-12-01

South Equatorial Africa (SEA) is a climatically diverse region that includes a dramatic topographic and vegetation contrast between the lowland, humid Congo basin to the west and the East African Plateau to the east. Due to lack of conventional weather data and a tendency for researchers to treat East and western Africa as separate regions, dynamics of the atmospheric water cycle across SEA have received relatively little attention, particularly at subseasonal timescales. Both western and eastern sectors of SEA are affected by large-scale drivers of the water cycle associated with Atlantic variability (western sector), Indian Ocean variability (eastern sector) and Pacific variability (both sectors). However, a specific characteristic of SEA is strong heterogeneity in interannual rainfall variability that cannot be explained by large-scale climatic phenomena. For this reason, this study examines regional climate dynamics on daily time-scale with a focus on the role that the abrupt topographic contrast between the lowland Congo and the East African highlands plays in driving rainfall behavior on short timescales. Analysis of daily precipitation data during November-March reveals a zonally-oriented dipole mode over SEA that explains the leading pattern of weather-scale precipitation variability in the region. The separating longitude of the two poles is coincident with the zonal variation of topography. An anomalous counter-clockwise atmospheric circulation associated with the dipole mode appears over the entire SEA. The circulation is triggered by its low-level westerly component, which is in turn generated by an interhemispheric pressure gradient. These enhanced westerlies hit the East African highlands and produce topographically-driven low-level convergence and convection that further intensifies the circulation. Recent studies have shown that under climate change the position and intensity of subtropical highs in both hemispheres and the intensity of

Variability of thermal and precipitation conditions in the growing season in Poland in the years 1966-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Tomczyk, Arkadiusz M.; Szyga-Pluta, Katarzyna

2018-03-01

The aim of the study was to identify the thermal and precipitation conditions and their changes in the growing season in Poland in the years 1966-2015. Data on average daily air temperature and daily precipitation totals for 30 stations from the period of 1966-2015 were used. The data were obtained from the collections of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute. The growing season was defined as the period of average daily air temperature ≥ 5 °C. The mathematical formulas proposed by Gumiński (1948) were used to determine its start and end dates. In the growing season in Poland in the years 1966-2015, there were more significant changes in the thermal conditions than there were in the precipitation conditions. In terms of long-term trends over the study period, thermal conditions during the growing season are characterised by an increase in mean air temperature, an increase in the sum of air temperatures and an increasing occurrence of seasons classified as above-normal seasons. Precipitation conditions of the growing season show large temporal and spatial variations in precipitation and a predominance of normal conditions. The changes in precipitation were not statistically significant, except for Świnoujście.

Winter precipitation over the Iberian peninsula and its relationship to circulation indices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Rodríguez-Puebla

2001-01-01

Full Text Available Winter precipitation variability over the Iberian peninsula was investigated by obtaining the spatial and temporal patterns. Empirical Orthogonal Functions were used to describe the variance distribution and to compress the precipitation data into a few modes. The corresponding spatial patterns divide the peninsula into climatic regions according to precipitation variations. The associated time series were related to large scale circulation indices and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies by using lag cross-correlation and cross-spectrum. The major findings are: the most influential indices for winter precipitation were the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern; coherent oscillations were detected at about eight years between precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation and some dynamic consequences of the circulation on precipitation over the Iberian peninsula were examined during drought and wet spells. In the end statistical methods have been proposed to downscale seasonal precipitation prediction. Keywords: Winter precipitation, circulation indices, Iberian peninsula climate, climate variations, precipitation trend

Mean field diffusion models for precipitation in crystalline GaAs including surface tension and bulk stresses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dreyer, Wolfgang [Weierstrass-Institut fuer Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik (WIAS) im Forschungsverbund Berlin e.V. (Germany); Kimmerle, Sven-Joachim [Humboldt-Univ. Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Mathematics

2009-07-01

Based on a thermodynamically consistent model for precipitation in gallium arsenide crystals including surface tension and bulk stresses by Dreyer and Duderstadt, we propose different mathematical models to describe the size evolution of liquid droplets in a crystalline solid. The first class of models treats the diffusion-controlled regime of interface motion, while the second class is concerned with the interface-controlled regime of interface motion. Our models take care of conservation of mass and substance. We consider homogenised models, where different length scales of the experimental situation have been exploited in order to simplify the equations. These homogenised models generalise the well-known Lifshitz-Slyozov-Wagner model for Ostwald ripening. Mean field models capture the main properties of our system and are well adapted for numerics and further analysis. Numerical evidence suggests in which case which one of the two regimes might be appropriate to the experimental situation. (orig.)

CONCENTRATION OF Pu USING AN IODATE PRECIPITATE

Science.gov (United States)

Fries, B.A.

1960-02-23

A method is given for separating plutonium from lanthanum in a lanthanum fluoride carrier precipitation process for the recovery of plutonium values from an aqueous solution. The carrier precipitation process includes the steps of forming a lanthanum fluoride precipi- . tate, thereby carrying plutonium out of solution, metathesizing the fluoride precipitate to a hydroxide precipitate, and then dissolving the hydroxide precipitate in nitric acid. In accordance with the invention, the nitric acid solution, which contains plutonium and lanthanum, is made 0.05 to 0.15 molar in potassium iodate. thereby precipitating plutonium as plutonous iodate and the plutonous iodate is separated from the lanthanum- containing supernatant solution.

Stable Isotopes of Precipitation During Tropical Sumatra Squalls in Singapore

Science.gov (United States)

He, Shaoneng; Goodkin, Nathalie F.; Kurita, Naoyuki; Wang, Xianfeng; Rubin, Charles Martin

2018-04-01

Sumatra Squalls, organized bands of thunderstorms, are the dominant mesoscale convective systems during the intermonsoon and southwest monsoon seasons in Singapore. To understand how they affect precipitation isotopes, we monitored the δ value of precipitation daily and continuously (every second and integrated over 30 s) during all squalls in 2015. We found that precipitation δ18O values mainly exhibit a "V"-shape pattern and less commonly a "W"-shape pattern. Variation in δ18O values during a single event is about 1 to 6‰ with the lowest values mostly observed in the stratiform zone, which agrees with previous observations and modeling simulations. Reevaporation can significantly affect δ values, especially in the last stage of the stratiform zone. Daily precipitation is characterized by periodic negative shifts in δ value, largely associated with the squalls rather than moisture source change. The shifts can be more than 10‰, larger than intraevent variation. Initial δ18O values of events are highly variable, and those with the lowest values also have the lowest initial values. Therefore, past convective activities in the upwind area can significantly affect the δ18O, and convection at the sampling site has limited contribution to isotopic variability. A significant correlation between precipitation δ18O value and regional outgoing longwave radiation and rainfall in the Asian monsoon region and western Pacific suggests that regional organized convection probably drives stable isotopic compositions of precipitation. A drop in the frequency of the squalls in 2015 is related to weak organized convection in the region caused by El Niño.

Stord Orographic Precipitation Experiment (STOPEX: an overview of phase I

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Sandvik

2007-04-01

Full Text Available STOPEX (Stord Orographic Precipitation Experiment is a research project of the Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway, dedicated to the investigation of orographic effects on fine scale precipitation patterns by a combination of numerical modelling and tailored measurement campaigns. Between 24 September and 16 November 2005 the first field campaign STOPEX I has been performed at and around the island of Stord at the west coast of Norway, about 50 km south of Bergen. 12 rain gauges and 3 autonomous weather stations have been installed to measure the variability of precipitation and the corresponding meteorological conditions. This paper gives an overview of the projects motivation, a description of the campaign and a presentation of the precipitation measurements performed. In addition, the extreme precipitation event around 14 November with precipitation amounts up to 240 mm in less than 24 h, is described and briefly discussed. In this context preliminary results of corresponding MM5 simulations are presented, that indicate the problems as well as potential improvement strategies with respect to modelling of fine scale orographic precipitation.

Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

2003-01-01

An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km...

Sources and Impacts of Modeled and Observed Low-Frequency Climate Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Parsons, Luke Alexander

Here we analyze climate variability using instrumental, paleoclimate (proxy), and the latest climate model data to understand more about the sources and impacts of low-frequency climate variability. Understanding the drivers of climate variability at interannual to century timescales is important for studies of climate change, including analyses of detection and attribution of climate change impacts. Additionally, correctly modeling the sources and impacts of variability is key to the simulation of abrupt change (Alley et al., 2003) and extended drought (Seager et al., 2005; Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997; Ault et al., 2014). In Appendix A, we employ an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) simulation to study the impacts of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the climate of the American Tropics. The AMOC drives some degree of local and global internal low-frequency climate variability (Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; Thornalley et al., 2009) and helps control the position of the tropical rainfall belt (Zhang and Delworth, 2005). We find that a major weakening of the AMOC can cause large-scale temperature, precipitation, and carbon storage changes in Central and South America. Our results suggest that possible future changes in AMOC strength alone will not be sufficient to drive a large-scale dieback of the Amazonian forest, but this key natural ecosystem is sensitive to dry-season length and timing of rainfall (Parsons et al., 2014). In Appendix B, we compare a paleoclimate record of precipitation variability in the Peruvian Amazon to climate model precipitation variability. The paleoclimate (Lake Limon) record indicates that precipitation variability in western Amazonia is 'red' (i.e., increasing variability with timescale). By contrast, most state-of-the-art climate models indicate precipitation variability in this region is nearly 'white' (i.e., equally variability across timescales). This paleo-model disagreement in the overall

Glacier variability in the conterminous United States during the twentieth century

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, Gregory J.; Fountain, Andrew G.

2013-01-01

Glaciers of the conterminous United States have been receding for the past century. Since 1900 the recession has varied from a 24 % loss in area (Mt. Rainier, Washington) to a 66 % loss in the Lewis Range of Montana. The rates of retreat are generally similar with a rapid loss in the early decades of the 20th century, slowing in the 1950s–1970s, and a resumption of rapid retreat starting in the 1990s. Decadal estimates of changes in glacier area for a subset of 31 glaciers from 1900 to 2000 are used to test a snow water equivalent model that is subsequently employed to examine the effects of temperature and precipitation variability on annual glacier area changes for these glaciers. Model results indicate that both winter precipitation and winter temperature have been important climatic factors affecting the variability of glacier variability during the 20th Century. Most of the glaciers analyzed appear to be more sensitive to temperature variability than to precipitation variability. However, precipitation variability is important, especially for high elevation glaciers. Additionally, glaciers with areas greater than 1 km2 are highly sensitive to variability in temperature.

Aerosol radiative effects on mesoscale cloud-precipitation variables over Northeast Asia during the MAPS-Seoul 2015 campaign

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Shin-Young; Lee, Hyo-Jung; Kang, Jeong-Eon; Lee, Taehyoung; Kim, Cheol-Hee

2018-01-01

The online model, Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is employed to interpret the effects of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction on mesoscale meteorological fields over Northeast Asia during the Megacity Air Pollution Study-Seoul (MAPS-Seoul) 2015 campaign. The MAPS-Seoul campaign is a pre-campaign of the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign conducted over the Korean Peninsula. We validated the WRF-Chem simulations during the campaign period, and analyzed aerosol-warm cloud interactions by diagnosing both aerosol direct, indirect, and total effects. The results demonstrated that aerosol directly decreased downward shortwave radiation up to -44% (-282 W m-2) for this period and subsequently increased downward longwave radiation up to +15% (∼52 W m-2) in the presence of low-level clouds along the thematic area. Aerosol increased cloud fraction indirectly up to ∼24% with the increases of both liquid water path and the droplet number mixing ratio. Precipitation properties were altered both directly and indirectly. Direct effects simply changed cloud-precipitation quantities via simple updraft process associated with perturbed radiation and temperature, while indirect effects mainly suppressed precipitation, but sometimes increased precipitation in the higher relative humidity atmosphere or near vapor-saturated condition. The total aerosol effects caused a time lag of the precipitation rate with the delayed onset time of up to 9 h. This implies the importance of aerosol effects in improving mesoscale precipitation rate prediction in the online approach in the presence of non-linear warm cloud.

Aerosols, clouds, and precipitation in the North Atlantic trades observed during the Barbados aerosol cloud experiment – Part 1: Distributions and variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Jung

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Shallow marine cumulus clouds are by far the most frequently observed cloud type over the Earth's oceans; but they are poorly understood and have not been investigated as extensively as stratocumulus clouds. This study describes and discusses the properties and variations of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation associated with shallow marine cumulus clouds observed in the North Atlantic trades during a field campaign (Barbados Aerosol Cloud Experiment- BACEX, March–April 2010, which took place off Barbados where African dust periodically affects the region. The principal observing platform was the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS Twin Otter (TO research aircraft, which was equipped with standard meteorological instruments, a zenith pointing cloud radar and probes that measured aerosol, cloud, and precipitation characteristics.The temporal variation and vertical distribution of aerosols observed from the 15 flights, which included the most intense African dust event during all of 2010 in Barbados, showed a wide range of aerosol conditions. During dusty periods, aerosol concentrations increased substantially in the size range between 0.5 and 10 µm (diameter, particles that are large enough to be effective giant cloud condensation nuclei (CCN. The 10-day back trajectories showed three distinct air masses with distinct vertical structures associated with air masses originating in the Atlantic (typical maritime air mass with relatively low aerosol concentrations in the marine boundary layer, Africa (Saharan air layer, and mid-latitudes (continental pollution plumes. Despite the large differences in the total mass loading and the origin of the aerosols, the overall shapes of the aerosol particle size distributions were consistent, with the exception of the transition period.The TO was able to sample many clouds at various phases of growth. Maximum cloud depth observed was less than ∼ 3 km, while most

Effects of monsoon precipitation variability on the physiological response of two dominant C₄ grasses across a semiarid ecotone.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomey, Michell L; Collins, Scott L; Friggens, Michael T; Brown, Renee F; Pockman, William T

2014-11-01

For the southwestern United States, climate models project an increase in extreme precipitation events and prolonged dry periods. While most studies emphasize plant functional type response to precipitation variability, it is also important to understand the physiological characteristics of dominant plant species that define plant community composition and, in part, regulate ecosystem response to climate change. We utilized rainout shelters to alter the magnitude and frequency of rainfall and measured the physiological response of the dominant C4 grasses, Bouteloua eriopoda and Bouteloua gracilis. We hypothesized that: (1) the more drought-adapted B. eriopoda would exhibit faster recovery and higher rates of leaf-level photosynthesis (A(net)) than B. gracilis, (2) A(net) would be greater under the higher average soil water content in plots receiving 30-mm rainfall events, (3) co-dominance of B. eriopoda and B. gracilis in the ecotone would lead to intra-specific differences from the performance of each species at the site where it was dominant. Throughout the study, soil moisture explained 40-70% of the variation in A(net). Consequently, differences in rainfall treatments were not evident from intra-specific physiological function without sufficient divergence in soil moisture. Under low frequency, larger rainfall events B. gracilis exhibited improved water status and longer periods of C gain than B. eriopoda. Results from this study indicate that less frequent and larger rainfall events could provide a competitive advantage to B. gracilis and influence species composition across this arid-semiarid grassland ecotone.

Precipitation, landsliding, and erosion across the Olympic Mountains, Washington State, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Stephen G.; Wegmann, Karl W.

2018-01-01

In the Olympic Mountains of Washington State, landsliding is the primary surface process by which bedrock and hillslope regolith are delivered to river networks. However, the relative importance of large earthquakes versus high magnitude precipitation events to the total volume of landslide material transported to valley bottoms remains unknown in part due to the absence of large historical earthquakes. To test the hypothesis that erosion is linked to precipitation, approximately 1000 landslides were mapped from Google Earth imagery between 1990 and 2015 along a 15 km-wide × 85 km-long (1250 km2) swath across the range. The volume of hillslope material moved by each slide was calculated using previously published area-volume scaling relationships, and the spatial distribution of landslide volume was compared to mean annual precipitation data acquired from the PRISM climate group for the period 1981-2010. Statistical analysis reveals a significant correlation (r = 0.55; p landslide volume and mean annual precipitation, with 98% of landslide volume occurring along the windward, high-precipitation side of the range during the 25-year interval. Normalized to area, this volume yields a basin-wide erosion rate of 0.28 ± 0.11 mm yr- 1, which is similar to previous time-variable estimates of erosion throughout the Olympic Mountains, including those from river sediment yield, cosmogenic 10Be, fluvial terrace incision, and thermochronometry. The lack of large historic earthquakes makes it difficult to assess the relative contributions of precipitation and seismic shaking to total erosion, but our results suggest that climate, and more specifically a sharp precipitation gradient, plays an important role in controlling erosion and landscape evolution over both short and long timescales across the Olympic Mountains.

Disentangling the Effects of Precipitation Amount and Frequency on the Performance of 14 Grassland Species

Science.gov (United States)

Didiano, Teresa J.; Johnson, Marc T. J.; Duval, Tim P.

2016-01-01

Climate change is causing shifts in the amount and frequency of precipitation in many regions, which is expected to have implications for plant performance. Most research has examined the impacts of the amount of precipitation on plants rather than the effects of both the amount and frequency of precipitation. To understand how climate-driven changes in precipitation can affect grassland plants, we asked: (i) How does the amount and frequency of precipitation affect plant performance? (ii) Do plant functional groups vary in their response to variable precipitation? To answer these questions we grew 14 monocot and eudicot grassland species and conducted a factorial manipulation of the amount (70 vs 90mm/month) and frequency (every 3, 15, or 30 days) of precipitation under rainout shelters. Our results show that both the amount and frequency of precipitation impact plant performance, with larger effects on eudicots than monocots. Above- and below-ground biomass were affected by the amount of precipitation and/or the interaction between the amount and frequency of precipitation. Above-ground biomass increased by 21–30% when the amount of precipitation was increased. When event frequency was decreased from 3 to 15 or 30 days, below-ground biomass generally decreased by 18–34% in the 70 mm treatment, but increased by 33–40% in the 90 mm treatment. Changes in stomatal conductance were largely driven by changes in event frequency. Our results show that it is important to consider changes in both the amount and frequency of precipitation when predicting how plant communities will respond to variable precipitation. PMID:27622497

Centrifugal precipitation chromatography

Science.gov (United States)

Ito, Yoichiro; Lin, Qi

2009-01-01

Centrifugal precipitation chromatography separates analytes according their solubility in ammonium sulfate (AS) solution and other precipitants. The separation column is made from a pair of long spiral channels partitioned with a semipermeable membrane. In a typical separation, concentrated ammonium sulfate is eluted through one channel while water is eluted through the other channel in the opposite direction. The countercurrent process forms an exponential AS concentration gradient through the water channel. Consequently, protein samples injected into the water channel is subjected to a steadily increasing AS concentration and at the critical AS concentration they are precipitated and deposited in the channel bed by the centrifugal force. Then the chromatographic separation is started by gradually reducing the AS concentration in the AS channel which lowers the AS gradient concentration in the water channel. This results in dissolution of deposited proteins which are again precipitated at an advanced critical point as they move through the channel. Consequently, proteins repeat precipitation and dissolution through a long channel and finally eluted out from the column in the order of their solubility in the AS solution. The present method has been successfully applied to a number of analytes including human serum proteins, recombinant ketosteroid isomerase, carotenoid cleavage enzymes, plasmid DNA, polysaccharide, polymerized pigments, PEG-protein conjugates, etc. The method is capable to single out the target species of proteins by affinity ligand or immunoaffinity separation. PMID:19541553

Multi-proxy reconstructions of precipitation field in China over the past 500 years.

OpenAIRE

Shi, Feng; Zhao, sen; Guo, Zhengtang; Goosse, Hugues; Yin, Qiuzhen

2017-01-01

The dominant modes of variability of precipitation for the whole of China over the past millennium and the mechanism governing their spatial structure remain unclear. This is mainly due to insufficient high-resolution proxy records of precipitation in western China. Numerous tree-ring chronologies have recently been archived in publicly available databases through PAGES2k activities, and these provide an opportunity to refine precipitation field reconstructions for China. Ba...

Insights into mountain precipitation and snowpack from a basin-scale wireless-sensor network

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Z.; Glaser, S.; Bales, R.; Conklin, M.; Rice, R.; Marks, D.

2017-08-01

A spatially distributed wireless-sensor network, installed across the 2154 km2 portion of the 5311 km2 American River basin above 1500 m elevation, provided spatial measurements of temperature, relative humidity, and snow depth in the Sierra Nevada, California. The network consisted of 10 sensor clusters, each with 10 measurement nodes, distributed to capture the variability in topography and vegetation cover. The sensor network captured significant spatial heterogeneity in rain versus snow precipitation for water-year 2014, variability that was not apparent in the more limited operational data. Using daily dew-point temperature to track temporal elevational changes in the rain-snow transition, the amount of snow accumulation at each node was used to estimate the fraction of rain versus snow. This resulted in an underestimate of total precipitation below the 0°C dew-point elevation, which averaged 1730 m across 10 precipitation events, indicating that measuring snow does not capture total precipitation. We suggest blending lower elevation rain gauge data with higher-elevation sensor-node data for each event to estimate total precipitation. Blended estimates were on average 15-30% higher than using either set of measurements alone. Using data from the current operational snow-pillow sites gives even lower estimates of basin-wide precipitation. Given the increasing importance of liquid precipitation in a warming climate, a strategy that blends distributed measurements of both liquid and solid precipitation will provide more accurate basin-wide precipitation estimates, plus spatial and temporal patters of snow accumulation and melt in a basin.

Precipitation Estimation Using L-Band and C-Band Soil Moisture Retrievals

Science.gov (United States)

Koster, Randal D.; Brocca, Luca; Crow, Wade T.; Burgin, Mariko S.; De Lannoy, Gabrielle J. M.

2016-01-01

An established methodology for estimating precipitation amounts from satellite-based soil moisture retrievals is applied to L-band products from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite missions and to a C-band product from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) mission. The precipitation estimates so obtained are evaluated against in situ (gauge-based) precipitation observations from across the globe. The precipitation estimation skill achieved using the L-band SMAP and SMOS data sets is higher than that obtained with the C-band product, as might be expected given that L-band is sensitive to a thicker layer of soil and thereby provides more information on the response of soil moisture to precipitation. The square of the correlation coefficient between the SMAP-based precipitation estimates and the observations (for aggregations to approximately100 km and 5 days) is on average about 0.6 in areas of high rain gauge density. Satellite missions specifically designed to monitor soil moisture thus do provide significant information on precipitation variability, information that could contribute to efforts in global precipitation estimation.

Precipitation data in a mountainous catchment in Honduras: quality assessment and spatiotemporal characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Westerberg, I.; Walther, A.; Guerrero, J.-L.; Coello, Z.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.-Y.; Chen, D.; Lundin, L.-C.

2010-08-01

An accurate description of temporal and spatial precipitation variability in Central America is important for local farming, water supply and flood management. Data quality problems and lack of consistent precipitation data impede hydrometeorological analysis in the 7,500 km2 Choluteca River basin in central Honduras, encompassing the capital Tegucigalpa. We used precipitation data from 60 daily and 13 monthly stations in 1913-2006 from five local authorities and NOAA's Global Historical Climatology Network. Quality control routines were developed to tackle the specific data quality problems. The quality-controlled data were characterised spatially and temporally, and compared with regional and larger-scale studies. Two gap-filling methods for daily data and three interpolation methods for monthly and mean annual precipitation were compared. The coefficient-of-correlation-weighting method provided the best results for gap-filling and the universal kriging method for spatial interpolation. In-homogeneity in the time series was the main quality problem, and 22% of the daily precipitation data were too poor to be used. Spatial autocorrelation for monthly precipitation was low during the dry season, and correlation increased markedly when data were temporally aggregated from a daily time scale to 4-5 days. The analysis manifested the high spatial and temporal variability caused by the diverse precipitation-generating mechanisms and the need for an improved monitoring network.

A 242-year seasonal-resolved speleothem record from Hainan Island: A window into variability of the precipitation δ18O in East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Y.; An, Z.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Fung, I. Y.; Zhang, H.; Tan, L.; Bi, H.

2016-12-01

Hainan Island is located at the gateway of East Asian summer monsoon to the continent. The typical tropical monsoon climate at Hainan island is characterized by wet season during the summer and autumn and dry season during the winter and spring. Here, we present a seasonal resolved speleothem record spanning 242 years ( 50-292 AD) from Xianren Cave (E109°25`, N18°34`), which is situated in the Baoting County, Hainan Province. The monitoring inside the cave shows that the relative humidity kept saturated during the observed periods (one and half years) while the temperature varied seasonally following the temperature changes outside the cave, but with much smaller amplitude. Monthly observation of drip water inside the cave indicates that the isotope composition of drip water mainly responds to the changes in the precipitation isotope composition with less than two months' resident time. The visible annual lamination and distinct fluctuations of calcite Mg, Sr and Ba concentrations corroborate that the high-frequency oscillations of calcite δ18O largely capture the seasonal variation of the isotope composition of precipitation, although the temperature effect cannot be excluded. By setting the heaviest value of annual variation of calcite δ18O as the beginning of each annual cycle, we transferred the δ18O record of 11.2 cm in depth to a δ18O record of 242-year in age. The δ18O record of stalagmite XR-3 demonstrate clearly the annual, decadal and multi-decadal variations of amplitude from 2 to 4‰, in addition to the seasonal oscillation of amplitude varied from 1.5 to 2.5‰. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition results show that the dominant variability (54.6% of the total variance) is captured by the components at the timescale of 3-7 year, while the components on timescales of 22-24 -year, 80-year and 120-year capture 35.0%, 7.0% and 3.4% of the variance, respectively. We contribute the variability of speleothem δ18O at the timescale of 3-7 -year to

Evaluating satellite-derived long-term historical precipitation datasets for drought monitoring in Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Zambrano, Francisco; Wardlow, Brian; Tadesse, Tsegaye; Lillo-Saavedra, Mario; Lagos, Octavio

2017-04-01

Precipitation is a key parameter for the study of climate change and variability and the detection and monitoring of natural disaster such as drought. Precipitation datasets that accurately capture the amount and spatial variability of rainfall is critical for drought monitoring and a wide range of other climate applications. This is challenging in many parts of the world, which often have a limited number of weather stations and/or historical data records. Satellite-derived precipitation products offer a viable alternative with several remotely sensed precipitation datasets now available with long historical data records (+30years), which include the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) datasets. This study presents a comparative analysis of three historical satellite-based precipitation datasets that include Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B43 version 7 (1998-2015), PERSIANN-CDR (1983-2015) and CHIRPS 2.0 (1981-2015) over Chile to assess their performance across the country and for the case of the two long-term products the applicability for agricultural drought were evaluated when used in the calculation of commonly used drought indicator as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In this analysis, 278 weather stations of in situ rainfall measurements across Chile were initially compared to the satellite data. The study area (Chile) was divided into five latitudinal zones: North, North-Central, Central, South-Central and South to determine if there were a regional difference among these satellite products, and nine statistics were used to evaluate their performance to estimate the amount and spatial distribution of historical rainfall across Chile. Hierarchical cluster analysis, k-means and singular value decomposition were used to analyze

Characterization of increased persistence and intensity of precipitation in the northeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Guilbert, Justin; Betts, Alan K.; Rizzo, Donna M.; Beckage, Brian; Bomblies, Arne

2015-03-01

We present evidence of increasing persistence in daily precipitation in the northeastern United States that suggests that global circulation changes are affecting regional precipitation patterns. Meteorological data from 222 stations in 10 northeastern states are analyzed using Markov chain parameter estimates to demonstrate that a significant mode of precipitation variability is the persistence of precipitation events. We find that the largest region-wide trend in wet persistence (i.e., the probability of precipitation in 1 day and given precipitation in the preceding day) occurs in June (+0.9% probability per decade over all stations). We also find that the study region is experiencing an increase in the magnitude of high-intensity precipitation events. The largest increases in the 95th percentile of daily precipitation occurred in April with a trend of +0.7 mm/d/decade. We discuss the implications of the observed precipitation signals for watershed hydrology and flood risk.

Impact of precipitation spatial resolution on the hydrological response of an integrated distributed water resources model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fu, Suhua; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

2011-01-01

Precipitation is a key input variable to hydrological models, and the spatial variability of the input is expected to impact the hydrological response predicted by a distributed model. In this study, the effect of spatial resolution of precipitation on runoff , recharge and groundwater head...... of the total catchment and runoff discharge hydrograph at watershed outlet. On the other hand, groundwater recharge and groundwater head were both aff ected. The impact of the spatial resolution of precipitation input is reduced with increasing catchment size. The effect on stream discharge is relatively low...... was analyzed in the Alergaarde catchment in Denmark. Six different precipitation spatial resolutions were used as inputs to a physically based, distributed hydrological model, the MIKE SHE model. The results showed that the resolution of precipitation input had no apparent effect on annual water balance...

Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G - I. Near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea level pressure.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Min, Seung-Ki; Hense, Andreas [Univ. of Bonn (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Legutke, Stephanie [Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Kwon, Won-Tae [Meteorological Research Inst., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2005-08-01

The internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled atmosphere/ocean global climate model ECHO-G is analysed using near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea level pressure variables, and is compared with observations and other coupled climate model simulations. ECHO-G requires annual mean flux adjustments for heat and freshwater in order to simulate no significant climate drift for 1000 yr, but no flux adjustments for momentum. The ECHO-G control run captures well most aspects of the observed seasonal and annual climatology and of the interannual to decadal variability of the three variables. Model biases are very close to those in ECHAM4 (atmospheric component of ECHO-G) stand-alone integrations with prescribed observed sea surface temperature. A trend comparison between observed and modelled near-surface temperatures shows that the observed near-surface global warming is larger than internal variability produced by ECHO-G, supporting previous studies. The simulated global mean near-surface temperatures, however, show a 2-yr spectral peak which is linked with a strong biennial bias of energy in the El Nino Southern Oscillation signal. Consequently, the interannual variability (39 yr) is underestimated.

Geographically weighted regression based methods for merging satellite and gauge precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Lijun; Zhang, Ke; Li, Zhijia; Zhu, Yuelong; Wang, Jingfeng; Yu, Zhongbo

2018-03-01

Real-time precipitation data with high spatiotemporal resolutions are crucial for accurate hydrological forecasting. To improve the spatial resolution and quality of satellite precipitation, a three-step satellite and gauge precipitation merging method was formulated in this study: (1) bilinear interpolation is first applied to downscale coarser satellite precipitation to a finer resolution (PS); (2) the (mixed) geographically weighted regression methods coupled with a weighting function are then used to estimate biases of PS as functions of gauge observations (PO) and PS; and (3) biases of PS are finally corrected to produce a merged precipitation product. Based on the above framework, eight algorithms, a combination of two geographically weighted regression methods and four weighting functions, are developed to merge CMORPH (CPC MORPHing technique) precipitation with station observations on a daily scale in the Ziwuhe Basin of China. The geographical variables (elevation, slope, aspect, surface roughness, and distance to the coastline) and a meteorological variable (wind speed) were used for merging precipitation to avoid the artificial spatial autocorrelation resulting from traditional interpolation methods. The results show that the combination of the MGWR and BI-square function (MGWR-BI) has the best performance (R = 0.863 and RMSE = 7.273 mm/day) among the eight algorithms. The MGWR-BI algorithm was then applied to produce hourly merged precipitation product. Compared to the original CMORPH product (R = 0.208 and RMSE = 1.208 mm/hr), the quality of the merged data is significantly higher (R = 0.724 and RMSE = 0.706 mm/hr). The developed merging method not only improves the spatial resolution and quality of the satellite product but also is easy to implement, which is valuable for hydrological modeling and other applications.

Can frequent precipitation moderate drought impact on peatmoss carbon uptake in northern peatlands?

Science.gov (United States)

Nijp, Jelmer; Limpens, Juul; Metselaar, Klaas; van der Zee, Sjoerd; Berendse, Frank; Robroek, Bjorn

2014-05-01

Northern peatlands represent one of the largest global carbon stores that can potentially be released by water table drawdown during extreme summer droughts. Small precipitation events may moderate negative impacts of deep water levels on carbon uptake by sustaining photosynthesis of peatmoss (Sphagnum spp.), the key species in these ecosystems. We experimentally assessed the importance of the temporal distribution of precipitation for Sphagnum water supply and carbon uptake during a stepwise decrease in water levels in a growth chamber. CO2 exchange and the water balance were measured for intact cores of three peatmoss species representative of three contrasting habitats in northern peatlands (Sphagnum fuscum, S. balticum and S. majus). For shallow water levels, capillary rise was the most important source of water for peatmoss photosynthesis and precipitation did not promote carbon uptake irrespective of peatmoss species. For deep water levels, however, precipitation dominated over capillary rise and moderated adverse effects of drought on carbon uptake by peat mosses. The ability to use the transient water supply by precipitation was species-specific: carbon uptake of S. fuscum increased linearly with precipitation frequency for deep water levels, whereas S. balticum and S. majus showed depressed carbon uptake at intermediate precipitation frequencies. Our results highlight the importance of precipitation for carbon uptake by peatmosses. The potential of precipitation to moderate drought impact, however, is species specific and depends on the temporal distribution of precipitation and water level. These results also suggest that modelling approaches in which water level depth is used as the only state variable determining water availability in the living moss layer and (in)directly linked to Sphagnum carbon uptake may have serious drawbacks. The predictive power of peatland ecosystem models may be reduced when deep water levels prevail, as precipitation

Geospatial models of climatological variables distribution over Colombian territory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baron Leguizamon, Alicia

2003-01-01

Diverse studies have dealt on the existing relation between the variables temperature about the air and precipitation with the altitude; nevertheless they have been precise analyses or by regions, but no of them has gotten to constitute itself in a tool that reproduces the space distribution, of the temperature or the precipitation, taking into account orography and allowing to obtain from her data on these variables in a certain place. Cradle in the raised relation and from the multi-annual monthly information of the temperature of the air and the precipitation, it was calculated the vertical gradients of temperature and the related the precipitation to the altitude. After it, with base in the data of altitude provided by the DEM, one calculated the values of temperature and precipitation, and those values were interpolated to generate geospatial models monthly

Few multiyear precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship.

Science.gov (United States)

Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Peñuelas, Josep; Bahn, Michael; Beier, Claus; Emmett, Bridget A; Fay, Philip A; Hanson, Paul J; Hasibeder, Roland; Kigel, Jaime; Kröel-Dulay, Gyorgy; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Lellei-Kovács, Eszter; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Ogaya, Romà; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Reinsch, Sabine; Sala, Osvaldo E; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Sternberg, Marcelo; Tielbörger, Katja; Tietema, Albert; Janssens, Ivan A

2016-07-01

multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

2004-01-01

The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

Spatial Distribution of Stable Isotopes of Precipitation in Kumamoto, Japan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anoue, M. T.; Shimada, J. [Graduate School of Science and Technology, Kumamoto University (Japan); Ichiyanagi, K. [Graduate School of Science and Technology, Kumamoto University and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (Japan)

2013-07-15

To understand the spatial distribution of stable isotopic compositions in precipitation, precipitation samples were collected every two weeks from november 2009 to december 2010 at 6 points in Kumamoto, Japan. The {delta}{sup 18}O and {delta}{sup 2}H of precipitation samples were measured by isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Delta-S) with CO{sub 2}/H2{sub O} equivalent method for {delta}{sup 18}O and the chromium reduction method for {delta}2H. The range of {delta}{sup 18}O and d-excess (= {delta}{sup 2}H - 8 {delta}{sup 18}O) in precipitation is from -13.4 per mille to -3.5 per mille and from 2.6 per mille to 35.6 per mille , respectively. Seasonal variability of {delta}{sup 18}O (d-excess) in precipitation was low (high) in winter and high (low) in summer. The seasonal wind of this study area was dominated by south-westerly in summer (from June to August) and north-westerly in winter (from December to February). These wind regimes indicate seasonal variabilities of the water vapour pathway from the origin. In this paper the trend of inland effect to the {delta}{sup 18}O for both south-westerly and north-westerly are also considered. As a result, significant correlation between distances from the coastal line at south-westerly or north-westerly and {delta}{sup 18}O in precipitation was recognized, particularly from 18 February to 7 March and from 29 September to 19 October in 2010 (statistically significant with 5% level). Furthermore, in order to evaluate the course of precipitation, the column total of water vapour flux was considered in the whole period by using JRA-25 and JCDAS. It is interesting that the inland effect corresponded to the column total of water vapour flux at south-westerly (north-westerly). Hence, it is conceivable that the spatial distribution of {delta}{sup 18}O in precipitation was controlled by a column total of water vapour flux in this area. (author)

Climate dynamics: a network-based approach for the analysis of global precipitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Scarsoglio, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2013-01-01

Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool to investigate the statistical interdependence of many interacting elements, is used here to analyze the spatial dynamics of annual precipitation over seventy years (1941-2010). The precipitation network is built associating a node to a geographical region, which has a temporal distribution of precipitation, and identifying possible links among nodes through the correlation function. The precipitation network reveals significant spatial variability with barely connected regions, as Eastern China and Japan, and highly connected regions, such as the African Sahel, Eastern Australia and, to a lesser extent, Northern Europe. Sahel and Eastern Australia are remarkably dry regions, where low amounts of rainfall are uniformly distributed on continental scales and small-scale extreme events are rare. As a consequence, the precipitation gradient is low, making these regions well connected on a large spatial scale. On the contrary, the Asiatic South-East is often reached by extreme events such as monsoons, tropical cyclones and heat waves, which can all contribute to reduce the correlation to the short-range scale only. Some patterns emerging between mid-latitude and tropical regions suggest a possible impact of the propagation of planetary waves on precipitation at a global scale. Other links can be qualitatively associated to the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. To analyze the sensitivity of the network to the physical closeness of the nodes, short-term connections are broken. The African Sahel, Eastern Australia and Northern Europe regions again appear as the supernodes of the network, confirming furthermore their long-range connection structure. Almost all North-American and Asian nodes vanish, revealing that extreme events can

Climate dynamics: a network-based approach for the analysis of global precipitation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefania Scarsoglio

Full Text Available Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool to investigate the statistical interdependence of many interacting elements, is used here to analyze the spatial dynamics of annual precipitation over seventy years (1941-2010. The precipitation network is built associating a node to a geographical region, which has a temporal distribution of precipitation, and identifying possible links among nodes through the correlation function. The precipitation network reveals significant spatial variability with barely connected regions, as Eastern China and Japan, and highly connected regions, such as the African Sahel, Eastern Australia and, to a lesser extent, Northern Europe. Sahel and Eastern Australia are remarkably dry regions, where low amounts of rainfall are uniformly distributed on continental scales and small-scale extreme events are rare. As a consequence, the precipitation gradient is low, making these regions well connected on a large spatial scale. On the contrary, the Asiatic South-East is often reached by extreme events such as monsoons, tropical cyclones and heat waves, which can all contribute to reduce the correlation to the short-range scale only. Some patterns emerging between mid-latitude and tropical regions suggest a possible impact of the propagation of planetary waves on precipitation at a global scale. Other links can be qualitatively associated to the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. To analyze the sensitivity of the network to the physical closeness of the nodes, short-term connections are broken. The African Sahel, Eastern Australia and Northern Europe regions again appear as the supernodes of the network, confirming furthermore their long-range connection structure. Almost all North-American and Asian nodes vanish, revealing that

Diagnosis of the Asian summer monsoon variability and the climate prediction of monsoon precipitation via physical decomposition

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Young-Kwon

This study investigates the space-time evolution of the dominant modes that constitute the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), and, as an ultimate goal, the climate prediction of the ASM rainfall. Precipitation and other synoptic variables during the prominent life cycle of the ASM (May 21 to September 17) are used to show the detailed features of dominant modes, which are identified as the seasonal cycle, the ISO defined by the 40--50 day intraseasonal oscillation including the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the El Nino mode. The present study reveals that the ISO is the second largest component of the ASM rainfall variation. Correlation analysis indicates that ISO explains a larger fraction of the variance of the observed precipitation (without climatology) than the ENSO mode. The dominant ISO signal faithfully explains the northward propagation of the ISO toward the Asian continent causing intraseasonal active/break periods. The interannual variation of the ISO strength suggests that the ENSO exerts some influence on the ISO. The composite convective ISO anomaly and Kelvin-Rossby wave response over the Indian Ocean shows that the ISO tends to be stronger during the early stage of the ASM than normal in El Nino (La Nina) years, indicating greater (smaller) possibility of ISO-related extreme rainfall over India, Bangladesh, and the Bay of Bengal. The ENSO mode reveals that the following factors affect the evolution of the ASM system in El Nino (La Nina) years. (1) The anomalous sea surface temperature and sea level pressure over the Indian Ocean during the early stage of the ASM weaken (enhance) the meridional pressure gradient. (2) As a result, the westerly jet and the ensuing moisture transport toward India and the Bay of Bengal become weak (strong) and delayed (expedited), providing a less (more) favorable condition for regional monsoon onsets. (3) The Walker circulation anomaly results in an enhanced subsidence (ascent) and drought (flood) over the Maritime continent

Recent hydrological variability and extreme precipitation events in Moroccan Middle-Atlas mountains: micro-scale analyses of lacustrine sediments

Science.gov (United States)

Jouve, Guillaume; Vidal, Laurence; Adallal, Rachid; Bard, Edouard; Benkaddour, Abdel; Chapron, Emmanuel; Courp, Thierry; Dezileau, Laurent; Hébert, Bertil; Rhoujjati, Ali; Simonneau, Anaelle; Sonzogni, Corinne; Sylvestre, Florence; Tachikawa, Kazuyo; Viry, Elisabeth

2016-04-01

Since the 1990s, the Mediterranean basin undergoes an increase in precipitation events and extreme droughts likely to intensify in the XXI century, and whose origin is attributable to human activities since 1850 (IPCC, 2013). Regional climate models indicate a strengthening of flood episodes at the end of the XXI century in Morocco (Tramblay et al, 2012). To understand recent hydrological and paleohydrological variability in North Africa, our study focuses on the macro- and micro-scale analysis of sedimentary sequences from Lake Azigza (Moroccan Middle Atlas Mountains) covering the last few centuries. This lake is relevant since local site monitoring revealed that lake water table levels were correlated with precipitation regime (Adallal R., PhD Thesis in progress). The aim of our study is to distinguish sedimentary facies characteristic of low and high lake levels, in order to reconstruct past dry and wet periods during the last two hundred years. Here, we present results from sedimentological (lithology, grain size, microstructures under thin sections), geochemical (XRF) and physical (radiography) analyses on short sedimentary cores (64 cm long) taken into the deep basin of Lake Azigza (30 meters water depth). Cores have been dated (radionuclides 210Pb, 137Cs, and 14C dating). Two main facies were distinguished: one organic-rich facies composed of wood fragments, several reworked layers and characterized by Mn peaks; and a second facies composed of terrigenous clastic sediments, without wood nor reworked layers, and characterized by Fe, Ti, Si and K peaks. The first facies is interpreted as a high lake level stand. Indeed, the highest paleoshoreline is close to the vegetation, and steeper banks can increase the current velocity, allowing the transport of wood fragments in case of extreme precipitation events. Mn peaks are interpreted as Mn oxides precipitations under well-oxygenated deep waters after runoff events. The second facies is linked to periods of

Seasonal analysis of precipitation, drought and Vegetation index in Indonesian paddy field based on remote sensing data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darmawan, S; Takeuchi, W; Shofiyati, R; Sari, D K; Wikantika, K

2014-01-01

Paddy field is important agriculture crop in Indonesia. Rice is a food staple for 237,6 million Indonesian people. Paddy field growth is strongly influenced by water, but the amount of precipitation is unpredictable. Annual and interannual climate variability in Indonesia is unusual. In recent years remote sensing data has been used for measurement and monitoring of precipitation, drought and Vegetation index such as Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), Multi-purpose Transmission SATellite (MTSAT) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The objective of this research is to investigate seasonal variability of precipitation, drought and Vegetation index in Indonesian paddy field based on remote sensing data. The methodology consists of collecting of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from MODIS data, mosaicking of image, collecting of region of interest of paddy field, collecting of precipitation and drought index based on Keetch Bryam Drought Index (KBDI) from GSMaP and MTSAT, and seasonal analysis. The result of this research has showed seasonal variability of precipitation, KBDI and EVI on Indonesia paddy field from 2007 until 2012. Precipitation begins from January until May and October until December, and KBDI begins to increase from June and peak in September only in South Sumatera precipitation almost in all month. Seasonal analysis has showed precipitation and KBDI affect on EVI that can indicate variety phenology of Indonesian paddy field. Peak of EVI occurs before peak of KBDI occurs and increasing of KBDI followed by decreasing of EVI. In 2010 all province got higher precipitation and smaller KBDI so EVI has three peaks such as in West Java that can indicated increasing of rice production

Exploring Database Improvements for GPM Constellation Precipitation Retrievals

Science.gov (United States)

Ringerud, S.; Kidd, C.; Skofronick Jackson, G.

2017-12-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) offers an unprecedented opportunity for understanding and mapping of liquid and frozen precipitation on a global scale. GPM mission development of physically based retrieval algorithms, for application consistently across the constellation radiometers, relies on combined active-passive retrievals from the GPM core satellite as a transfer standard. Radiative transfer modeling is then utilized to compute a priori databases at the frequency and footprint geometry of each individual radiometer. The Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF) performs constellation retrievals across the GPM databases in a Bayesian framework, constraining searches using model data on a pixel-by-pixel basis. This work explores how the retrieval might be enhanced with additional information available within the brightness temperature observations themselves. In order to better exploit available information content, model water vapor is replaced with retrieved water vapor. Rather than treating each footprint as a 1D profile alone in space, information regarding Tb variability in the horizontal is added as well as variability in the time dimension. This additional information is tested and evaluated for retrieval improvement in the context of the Bayesian retrieval scheme. Retrieval differences are presented as a function of precipitation and surface type for evaluation of where the added information proves most effective.

Precipitation Nowcast using Deep Recurrent Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Akbari Asanjan, A.; Yang, T.; Gao, X.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.

2016-12-01

An accurate precipitation nowcast (0-6 hours) with a fine temporal and spatial resolution has always been an important prerequisite for flood warning, streamflow prediction and risk management. Most of the popular approaches used for forecasting precipitation can be categorized into two groups. One type of precipitation forecast relies on numerical modeling of the physical dynamics of atmosphere and another is based on empirical and statistical regression models derived by local hydrologists or meteorologists. Given the recent advances in artificial intelligence, in this study a powerful Deep Recurrent Neural Network, termed as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, is creatively used to extract the patterns and forecast the spatial and temporal variability of Cloud Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) observed from GOES satellite. Then, a 0-6 hours precipitation nowcast is produced using a Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN) algorithm, in which the CTBT nowcast is used as the PERSIANN algorithm's raw inputs. Two case studies over the continental U.S. have been conducted that demonstrate the improvement of proposed approach as compared to a classical Feed Forward Neural Network and a couple simple regression models. The advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method are summarized with regard to its capability of pattern recognition through time, handling of vanishing gradient during model learning, and working with sparse data. The studies show that the LSTM model performs better than other methods, and it is able to learn the temporal evolution of the precipitation events through over 1000 time lags. The uniqueness of PERSIANN's algorithm enables an alternative precipitation nowcast approach as demonstrated in this study, in which the CTBT prediction is produced and used as the inputs for generating precipitation nowcast.

Evaluation of precipitates used in strainer head loss testing. Part I. Chemically generated precipitates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bahn, Chi Bum; Kasza, Ken E.; Shack, William J.; Natesan, Ken; Klein, Paul

2009-01-01

The purpose of the current program was to evaluate the properties of chemical precipitates proposed by industry that have been used in sump strainer head loss testing. Specific precipitates that were evaluated included aluminum oxyhydroxide (AlOOH) and sodium aluminum silicate (SAS) prepared according to the procedures in WCAP-16530-NP, along with precipitates formed from injecting chemicals into the test loop according to the procedure used by one sump strainer test vendor for U.S. pressurized water reactors. The settling rates of the surrogate precipitates are strongly dependent on their particle size and are reasonably consistent with those expected from Stokes' Law or colloid aggregation models. Head loss tests showed that AlOOH and SAS surrogates are quite effective in increasing the head loss across a perforated pump inlet strainer that has an accumulated fibrous debris bed. The characteristics of aluminum hydroxide precipitate using sodium aluminate were dependent on whether it was formed in high-purity or ordinary tap water and whether excess silicate was present or not.

Precipitation and measurements of precipitation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schmidt, F.H.; Bruin, H.A.R. de; Attmannspacher, W.; Harrold, T.W.; Kraijenhoff van de Leur, D.A.

1977-01-01

In Western Europe, precipitation is normal phenomenon; it is of importance to all aspects of society, particularly to agriculture, in cattle breeding and, of course, it is a subject of hydrological research. Precipitation is an essential part in the hydrological cycle. How disastrous local

Human and bovine viruses in the Milwaukee River watershed: Hydrologically relevant representation and relations with environmental variables

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Corsi, S.R., E-mail: srcorsi@usgs.gov [U.S. Geological Survey, Wisconsin Water Science Center, Middleton, WI 53562 (United States); Borchardt, M.A.; Spencer, S.K. [U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, 2615 Yellowstone Dr., Marshfield, WI 54449 (United States); Hughes, P.E.; Baldwin, A.K. [U.S. Geological Survey, Wisconsin Water Science Center, Middleton, WI 53562 (United States)

2014-08-15

To examine the occurrence, hydrologic variability, and seasonal variability of human and bovine viruses in surface water, three stream locations were monitored in the Milwaukee River watershed in Wisconsin, USA, from February 2007 through June 2008. Monitoring sites included an urban subwatershed, a rural subwatershed, and the Milwaukee River at the mouth. To collect samples that characterize variability throughout changing hydrologic periods, a process control system was developed for unattended, large-volume (56–2800 L) filtration over extended durations. This system provided flow-weighted mean concentrations during runoff and extended (24-h) low-flow periods. Human viruses and bovine viruses were detected by real-time qPCR in 49% and 41% of samples (n = 63), respectively. All human viruses analyzed were detected at least once including adenovirus (40% of samples), GI norovirus (10%), enterovirus (8%), rotavirus (6%), GII norovirus (1.6%) and hepatitis A virus (1.6%). Three of seven bovine viruses analyzed were detected including bovine polyomavirus (32%), bovine rotavirus (19%), and bovine viral diarrhea virus type 1 (5%). Human viruses were present in 63% of runoff samples resulting from precipitation and snowmelt, and 20% of low-flow samples. Maximum human virus concentrations exceeded 300 genomic copies/L. Bovine viruses were present in 46% of runoff samples resulting from precipitation and snowmelt and 14% of low-flow samples. The maximum bovine virus concentration was 11 genomic copies/L. Statistical modeling indicated that stream flow, precipitation, and season explained the variability of human viruses in the watershed, and hydrologic condition (runoff event or low-flow) and season explained the variability of the sum of human and bovine viruses; however, no model was identified that could explain the variability of bovine viruses alone. Understanding the factors that affect virus fate and transport in rivers will aid watershed management for minimizing

Human and bovine viruses in the Milwaukee River watershed: Hydrologically relevant representation and relations with environmental variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Corsi, S.R.; Borchardt, M.A.; Spencer, S.K.; Hughes, P.E.; Baldwin, A.K.

2014-01-01

To examine the occurrence, hydrologic variability, and seasonal variability of human and bovine viruses in surface water, three stream locations were monitored in the Milwaukee River watershed in Wisconsin, USA, from February 2007 through June 2008. Monitoring sites included an urban subwatershed, a rural subwatershed, and the Milwaukee River at the mouth. To collect samples that characterize variability throughout changing hydrologic periods, a process control system was developed for unattended, large-volume (56–2800 L) filtration over extended durations. This system provided flow-weighted mean concentrations during runoff and extended (24-h) low-flow periods. Human viruses and bovine viruses were detected by real-time qPCR in 49% and 41% of samples (n = 63), respectively. All human viruses analyzed were detected at least once including adenovirus (40% of samples), GI norovirus (10%), enterovirus (8%), rotavirus (6%), GII norovirus (1.6%) and hepatitis A virus (1.6%). Three of seven bovine viruses analyzed were detected including bovine polyomavirus (32%), bovine rotavirus (19%), and bovine viral diarrhea virus type 1 (5%). Human viruses were present in 63% of runoff samples resulting from precipitation and snowmelt, and 20% of low-flow samples. Maximum human virus concentrations exceeded 300 genomic copies/L. Bovine viruses were present in 46% of runoff samples resulting from precipitation and snowmelt and 14% of low-flow samples. The maximum bovine virus concentration was 11 genomic copies/L. Statistical modeling indicated that stream flow, precipitation, and season explained the variability of human viruses in the watershed, and hydrologic condition (runoff event or low-flow) and season explained the variability of the sum of human and bovine viruses; however, no model was identified that could explain the variability of bovine viruses alone. Understanding the factors that affect virus fate and transport in rivers will aid watershed management for minimizing

Using stochastic space-time models to map extreme precipitation in southern Portugal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. C. Costa

2008-07-01

Full Text Available The topographic characteristics and spatial climatic diversity are significant in the South of continental Portugal where the rainfall regime is typically Mediterranean. Direct sequential cosimulation is proposed for mapping an extreme precipitation index in southern Portugal using elevation as auxiliary information. The analysed index (R5D can be considered a flood indicator because it provides a measure of medium-term precipitation total. The methodology accounts for local data variability and incorporates space-time models that allow capturing long-term trends of extreme precipitation, and local changes in the relationship between elevation and extreme precipitation through time. Annual gridded datasets of the flood indicator are produced from 1940 to 1999 on 800 m×800 m grids by using the space-time relationship between elevation and the index. Uncertainty evaluations of the proposed scenarios are also produced for each year. The results indicate that the relationship between elevation and extreme precipitation varies locally and has decreased through time over the study region. In wetter years the flood indicator exhibits the highest values in mountainous regions of the South, while in drier years the spatial pattern of extreme precipitation has much less variability over the study region. The uncertainty of extreme precipitation estimates also varies in time and space, and in earlier decades is strongly dependent on the density of the monitoring stations network. The produced maps will be useful in regional and local studies related to climate change, desertification, land and water resources management, hydrological modelling, and flood mitigation planning.

Disdrometer-based C-Band Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) in a highly complex terrain region in tropical Colombia.

Science.gov (United States)

Sepúlveda, J.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.

2017-12-01

An adequate quantification of precipitation over land is critical for many societal applications including agriculture, hydroelectricity generation, water supply, and risk management associated with extreme events. The use of rain gauges, a traditional method for precipitation estimation, and an excellent one, to estimate the volume of liquid water during a particular precipitation event, does not allow to fully capture the highly spatial variability of the phenomena which is a requirement for almost all practical applications. On the other hand, the weather radar, an active remote sensing sensor, provides a proxy for rainfall with fine spatial resolution and adequate temporary sampling, however, it does not measure surface precipitation. In order to fully exploit the capabilities of the weather radar, it is necessary to develop quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) techniques combining radar information with in-situ measurements. Different QPE methodologies are explored and adapted to local observations in a highly complex terrain region in tropical Colombia using a C-Band radar and a relatively dense network of rain gauges and disdrometers. One important result is that the expressions reported in the literature for extratropical locations are not representative of the conditions found in the tropical region studied. In addition to reproducing the state-of-the-art techniques, a new multi-stage methodology based on radar-derived variables and disdrometer data is proposed in order to achieve the best QPE possible. The main motivation for this new methodology is based on the fact that most traditional QPE methods do not directly take into account the different uncertainty sources involved in the process. The main advantage of the multi-stage model compared to traditional models is that it allows assessing and quantifying the uncertainty in the surface rain rate estimation. The sub-hourly rainfall estimations using the multi-stage methodology are realistic

Method for modeling the deposition of sulfur by precipitation over regional scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hicks, B.B.; Shannon, J.D.

1979-01-01

Radioactive fallout data suggest that the concentration of pollutants in rainfall, while highly variable, might be described on the average by about an inverse half-power dependence on the amount of precipitation. Recent measurements of sulfur concentrations in summer rainfall collected at Argonne National Laboratory tend to support this contention, as do preliminary results derived from operations of the DOE precipitation chemistry network. The concept is extended to develop a bulk removal rate for airborne total sulfur by precipitation for use in regional dispersion modeling

Characterization Of Mg(OH)2 Precipitation On MSF Desalination Process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sumijanto

2000-01-01

The experiment of Mg(OH) sub.2 precipitation has been carry out. Experiment took please by heating sea water simulation with consist of 142 ppm bicarbonate and magnesium ion at temperature 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, and 120 exp.oC respectively by using autoclave. Sampling has been done periodical for 30 minute in interval 300 minute for each temperature. The calculation of Mg(OH) sub.2 precipitation through the decreasing of magnesium concentration with analysis by AAS. From experiment data have the information that Mg(OH) sub.2 precipitation have been formed since 40 exp.oC. From time variable have been the information that the precipitation formed at 30th minute rapidly. Whether at further time the increasing of precipitation are not significant. This phenomena can explained that at each heating step from 40 exp.oC bicarbonate ion be come decomposition with the result carbonate and hydroxide ion and react with magnesium form Mg(OH) sub.2

Precipitation patterns and moisture fluxes in a sandy, tropical environment with a shallow water table

Science.gov (United States)

Minihane, M. R.; Freyberg, D. L.

2011-08-01

Identifying the dominant mechanisms controlling recharge in shallow sandy soils in tropical climates has received relatively little attention. Given the expansion of coastal fill using marine sands and the growth of coastal populations throughout the tropics, there is a need to better understand the nature of water balances in these settings. We use time series of field observations at a coastal landfill in Singapore coupled with numerical modeling using the Richards' equation to examine the impact of precipitation patterns on soil moisture dynamics, including percolation past the root zone and recharge, in such an environment. A threshold in total precipitation event depth, much more so than peak precipitation intensity, is the strongest event control on recharge. However, shallow antecedent moisture, and therefore the timing between events along with the seasonal depth to water table, also play significant roles in determining recharge amounts. For example, at our field site, precipitation events of less than 3 mm per event yield little to no direct recharge, but for larger events, moisture content changes below the root zone are linearly correlated to the product of the average antecedent moisture content and the total event precipitation. Therefore, water resources planners need to consider identifying threshold precipitation volumes, along with the multiple time scales that capture variability in event antecedent conditions and storm frequency in assessing the role of recharge in coastal water balances in tropical settings.

Climatological Modeling of Monthly Air Temperature and Precipitation in Egypt through GIS Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

El Kenawy, A.

2009-09-01

This paper describes a method for modeling and mapping four climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature and total precipitation) in Egypt using a multiple regression approach implemented in a GIS environment. In this model, a set of variables including latitude, longitude, elevation within a distance of 5, 10 and 15 km, slope, aspect, distance to the Mediterranean Sea, distance to the Red Sea, distance to the Nile, ratio between land and water masses within a radius of 5, 10, 15 km, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), the Normalized Difference Temperature Index (NDTI) and reflectance are included as independent variables. These variables were integrated as raster layers in MiraMon software at a spatial resolution of 1 km. Climatic variables were considered as dependent variables and averaged from quality controlled and homogenized 39 series distributing across the entire country during the period of (1957-2006). For each climatic variable, digital and objective maps were finally obtained using the multiple regression coefficients at monthly, seasonal and annual timescale. The accuracy of these maps were assessed through cross-validation between predicted and observed values using a set of statistics including coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean bias Error (MBE) and D Willmott statistic. These maps are valuable in the sense of spatial resolution as well as the number of observatories involved in the current analysis.

Study of calcium carbonate and sulfate co-precipitation

KAUST Repository

Zarga, Y.

2013-06-01

Co-precipitation of mineral based salts in scaling is still not well understood and/or thermodynamically well defined in the water industry. This study focuses on investigating calcium carbonate (CaCO3) and sulfate mixed precipitation in scaling which is commonly observed in industrial water treatment processes including seawater desalination either by thermal-based or membrane-based processes. Co-precipitation kinetics were studied carefully by monitoring several parameters simultaneously measured, including: pH, calcium and alkalinity concentrations as well as quartz microbalance responses. The CaCO3 germination in mixed precipitation was found to be different than that of simple precipitation. Indeed, the co-precipitation of CaCO3 germination time was not anymore related to supersaturation as in a simple homogenous precipitation, but was significantly reduced when the gypsum crystals appeared first. On the other hand, the calcium sulfate crystals appear to reduce the energetic barrier of CaCO3 nucleation and lead to its precipitation by activating heterogeneous germination. However, the presence of CaCO3 crystals does not seem to have any significant effect on gypsum precipitation. IR spectroscopy and the Scanning Electronic Microscopy (SEM) were used to identify the nature of scales structures. Gypsum was found to be the dominant precipitate while calcite and especially vaterite were found at lower proportions. These analyses showed also that gypsum crystals promote calcite crystallization to the detriment of other forms. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Vertical structure and microphysical characteristics of precipitation on the high terrain and lee side of the Olympic Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Zagrodnik, J. P.; McMurdie, L. A.; Houze, R.

2017-12-01

As mid-latitude cyclones pass over coastal mountain ranges, the processes producing their clouds and precipitation are modified when they encounter complex terrain, leading to a maximum in precipitation fallout on the windward slopes and a minimum on the lee side. The precipitation that does reach the high terrain and lee side of a mountain range can be theoretically determined by a complex interaction between the dynamics of air lifting over the terrain, the thermodynamics of moist air, and the microphysical time required to grow particles large enough to fall out. To date, there have been few observational studies that have focused on the nonlinear microphysical processes contributing to the variability of precipitation that is received on the lee side slopes of a mountain range such as the Olympic Mountains. The 2015-16 Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) collected unprecedented observations on the high terrain and lee side of the Olympic Mountains including frequent soundings on Vancouver Island, dual-polarization Doppler radar, multi-frequency airborne radar, and ground-based particle size and crystal habit observations at the higher elevation Hurricane Ridge site. We utilize these observations to examine the evolution of the vertical structure and microphysical precipitation characteristics over the high terrain and leeside within the context of large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that evolve during the passage of cold season mid-latitude cyclones. The primary goal is to determine the degree to which the observed variability in lee side precipitation amount and microphysical properties are controlled by variations in temperature, flow speed and direction, shear, and stability associated with characteristic synoptic storm sectors and frontal passages.

Variability and trends of wet season temperature in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and relationships with precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Oueslati, Boutheina; Camberlin, Pierre; Zoungrana, Joël; Roucou, Pascal; Diallo, Saliou

2018-02-01

The relationships between precipitation and temperature in the central Sudano-Sahelian belt are investigated by analyzing 50 years (1959-2008) of observed temperature (Tx and Tn) and rainfall variations. At daily time-scale, both Tx and Tn show a marked decrease as a response to rainfall occurrence, with a strongest departure from normal 1 day after the rainfall event (-0.5 to -2.5 °C depending on the month). The cooling is slightly larger when heavy rainfall events (>5 mm) are considered. The temperature anomalies weaken after the rainfall event, but are still significant several days later. The physical mechanisms accounting for the temperature response to precipitation are analysed. The Tx drop is accounted for by reduced incoming solar radiation associated with increased cloud cover and increased surface evaporation following surface moistening. The effect of evaporation becomes dominant a few days after the rainfall event. The reduced daytime heat storage and the subsequent sensible heat flux result in a later negative Tn anomaly. The effect of rainfall variations on temperature is significant for long-term warming trends. The rainfall decrease experienced between 1959 and 2008 accounts for a rainy season Tx increase of 0.15 to 0.3 °C, out of a total Tx increase of 1.3 to 1.5 °C. These results have strong implications on the assessment of future temperature changes. The dampening or amplifying effects of precipitation are determined by the sign of future precipitation trends. Confidence on temperature changes under global warming partly depend on the robustness of precipitation projections.

Examine Precipitation Extremes in Terms of Storm Properties

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.; Chen, L.; Gautam, M. R.; Acharya, K.

2017-12-01

The increasing potential of the extreme precipitation is of significant societal concern. Changes in precipitation extremes have been mostly examined using extreme precipitation indices or Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) analyses, which often fail to reveal the characteristics of an integrated precipitation event. In this study, we will examine the precipitation extremes in terms of storm properties including storm duration, storm intensity, total storm precipitation, and within storm pattern. Single storm event will be identified and storm properties will be determined based on the hourly precipitation time series in the selected locations in southwest United States. Three types of extreme precipitation event will be recognized using the criteria as (1) longest storm duration; (2) Highest storm intensity; and (3) largest total precipitation over a storm. The trend and variation of extreme precipitation events will be discussed for each criterion. Based on the comparisons of the characteristics of extreme precipitation events identified using different criteria, we will provide guidelines for choosing proper criteria for extreme precipitation analysis in specific location.

Modeling the influence of precipitation and nitrogen deposition on forest understory fuel connectivity in Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

Science.gov (United States)

M. Hurteau; M. North; T. Foines

2009-01-01

Climate change models for California’s Sierra Nevada predict greater inter-annual variability in precipitation over the next 50 years. These increases in precipitation variability coupled with increases in nitrogen deposition fromfossil fuel consumption are likely to result in increased productivity levels and significant increases in...

Downscaling atmospheric patterns to multi-site precipitation amounts in southern Scandinavia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gelati, Emiliano; Christensen, O.B.; Rasmussen, P.F.

2010-01-01

A non-homogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) is applied for downscaling atmospheric synoptic patterns to winter multi-site daily precipitation amounts. The implemented NHMM assumes precipitation to be conditional on a hidden weather state that follows a Markov chain, whose transition probabilities...... depend on current atmospheric information. The gridded atmospheric fields are summarized through the singular value decomposition (SVD) technique. SVD is applied to geopotential height and relative humidity at several pressure levels, to identify their principal spatial patterns co...... products of bivariate distributions. Conditional on the weather state, precipitation amounts are modelled separately at each gauge as independent gamma-distributed random variables. This modelling approach is applied to 51 precipitation gauges in Denmark and southern Sweden for the period 1981...

Estimating mountain basin-mean precipitation from streamflow using Bayesian inference

Science.gov (United States)

Henn, Brian; Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Lundquist, Jessica D.

2015-10-01

Estimating basin-mean precipitation in complex terrain is difficult due to uncertainty in the topographical representativeness of precipitation gauges relative to the basin. To address this issue, we use Bayesian methodology coupled with a multimodel framework to infer basin-mean precipitation from streamflow observations, and we apply this approach to snow-dominated basins in the Sierra Nevada of California. Using streamflow observations, forcing data from lower-elevation stations, the Bayesian Total Error Analysis (BATEA) methodology and the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), we infer basin-mean precipitation, and compare it to basin-mean precipitation estimated using topographically informed interpolation from gauges (PRISM, the Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model). The BATEA-inferred spatial patterns of precipitation show agreement with PRISM in terms of the rank of basins from wet to dry but differ in absolute values. In some of the basins, these differences may reflect biases in PRISM, because some implied PRISM runoff ratios may be inconsistent with the regional climate. We also infer annual time series of basin precipitation using a two-step calibration approach. Assessment of the precision and robustness of the BATEA approach suggests that uncertainty in the BATEA-inferred precipitation is primarily related to uncertainties in hydrologic model structure. Despite these limitations, time series of inferred annual precipitation under different model and parameter assumptions are strongly correlated with one another, suggesting that this approach is capable of resolving year-to-year variability in basin-mean precipitation.

Bivariate return periods of temperature and precipitation explain a large fraction of European crop yields

Science.gov (United States)

Zscheischler, Jakob; Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-07-01

Crops are vital for human society. Crop yields vary with climate and it is important to understand how climate and crop yields are linked to ensure future food security. Temperature and precipitation are among the key driving factors of crop yield variability. Previous studies have investigated mostly linear relationships between temperature and precipitation and crop yield variability. Other research has highlighted the adverse impacts of climate extremes, such as drought and heat waves, on crop yields. Impacts are, however, often non-linearly related to multivariate climate conditions. Here we derive bivariate return periods of climate conditions as indicators for climate variability along different temperature-precipitation gradients. We show that in Europe, linear models based on bivariate return periods of specific climate conditions explain on average significantly more crop yield variability (42 %) than models relying directly on temperature and precipitation as predictors (36 %). Our results demonstrate that most often crop yields increase along a gradient from hot and dry to cold and wet conditions, with lower yields associated with hot and dry periods. The majority of crops are most sensitive to climate conditions in summer and to maximum temperatures. The use of bivariate return periods allows the integration of non-linear impacts into climate-crop yield analysis. This offers new avenues to study the link between climate and crop yield variability and suggests that they are possibly more strongly related than what is inferred from conventional linear models.

Human and bovine viruses in the Milwaukee River Watershed: hydrologically relevant representation and relations with environmental variables

Science.gov (United States)

Corsi, Steven R.; Borchardt, M. A.; Spencer, S. K.; Hughes, Peter E.; Baldwin, Austin K.

2014-01-01

To examine the occurrence, hydrologic variability, and seasonal variability of human and bovine viruses in surface water, three stream locations were monitored in the Milwaukee River watershed in Wisconsin, USA, from February 2007 through June 2008. Monitoring sites included an urban subwatershed, a rural subwatershed, and the Milwaukee River at the mouth. To collect samples that characterize variability throughout changing hydrologic periods, a process control system was developed for unattended, large-volume (56–2800 L) filtration over extended durations. This system provided flow-weighted mean concentrations during runoff and extended (24-h) low-flow periods. Human viruses and bovine viruses were detected by real-time qPCR in 49% and 41% of samples (n = 63), respectively. All human viruses analyzed were detected at least once including adenovirus (40% of samples), GI norovirus (10%), enterovirus (8%), rotavirus (6%), GII norovirus (1.6%) and hepatitis A virus (1.6%). Three of seven bovine viruses analyzed were detected including bovine polyomavirus (32%), bovine rotavirus (19%), and bovine viral diarrhea virus type 1 (5%). Human viruses were present in 63% of runoff samples resulting from precipitation and snowmelt, and 20% of low-flow samples. Maximum human virus concentrations exceeded 300 genomic copies/L. Bovine viruses were present in 46% of runoff samples resulting from precipitation and snowmelt and 14% of low-flow samples. The maximum bovine virus concentration was 11 genomic copies/L. Statistical modeling indicated that stream flow, precipitation, and season explained the variability of human viruses in the watershed, and hydrologic condition (runoff event or low-flow) and season explained the variability of the sum of human and bovine viruses; however, no model was identified that could explain the variability of bovine viruses alone. Understanding the factors that affect virus fate and transport in rivers will aid watershed management for minimizing

Geostatistical Study of Precipitation on the Island of Crete

Science.gov (United States)

Agou, Vasiliki D.; Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.; Hristopulos, Dionissios T.

2015-04-01

Understanding and predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation in the Mediterranean islands is an important topic of research, which is emphasized by alarming long-term predictions for increased drought conditions [4]. The analysis of records from drought-prone areas around the world has demonstrated that precipitation data are non-Gaussian. Typically, such data are fitted to the gamma distribution function and then transformed into a normalized index, the so-called Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) [5]. The SPI can be defined for different time scales and has been applied to data from various regions [2]. Precipitation maps can be constructed using the stochastic method of Ordinary Kriging [1]. Such mathematical tools help to better understand the space-time variability and to plan water resources management. We present preliminary results of an ongoing investigation of the space-time precipitation distribution on the island of Crete (Greece). The study spans the time period from 1948 to 2012 and extends over an area of 8 336 km2. The data comprise monthly precipitation measured at 56 stations. Analysis of the data showed that the most severe drought occurred in 1950 followed by 1989, whereas the wettest year was 2002 followed by 1977. A spatial trend was observed with the spatially averaged annual precipitation in the West measured at about 450mm higher than in the East. Analysis of the data also revealed strong correlations between the precipitation in the western and eastern parts of the island. In addition to longitude, elevation (masl) was determined to be an important factor that exhibits strong linear correlation with precipitation. The precipitation data exhibit wet and dry periods with strong variability even during the wet period. Thus, fitting the data to specific probability distribution models has proved challenging. Different time scales, e.g. monthly, biannual, and annual have been investigated. Herein we focus on annual

The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Zappa, Giuseppe; Hoskins, Brian; Shepherd, Ted

2016-04-01

Climate models indicate a future wintertime precipitation reduction in the Mediterranean region which may have large socio-economic impacts. However, there is large uncertainty in the amplitude of the projected precipitation reduction and this limits the possibility to inform effective adaptation planning. We analyse CMIP5 climate model output to quantify the role of atmospheric circulation in the precipitation change and the time of emergence of the Mediterranean precipitation response. It is found that a simple circulation index, i.e. the 850 hPa zonal wind (U850) in North Africa, well describes the year to year fluctuations in the area-averaged Mediterranean precipitation, with positive (i.e. westerly) U850 anomalies in North Africa being associated with positive precipitation anomalies. Under climate change, U850 in North Africa and the Mediterranean precipitation are both projected to decrease consistently with the relationship found in the inter-annual variability. This enables us to estimate that about 85% of the CMIP5 mean precipitation response and 80% of the variance in the inter-model spread are related to changes in the atmospheric circulation. In contrast, there is no significant correlation between the mean precipitation response and the global-mean surface warming across the models. We also find that the precipitation response to climate change might already emerge from internal variability by 2025 relative to 1960-1990 according to the climate models with a large circulation response. This implies that it might soon be possible to test model projections using observations. Finally, some of the mechanisms which are important for the Mediterranean circulation response in the CMIP5 models are discussed.

Causes of interannual to decadal variability of Gila River streamflow over the past century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.A. Pascolini-Campbell

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Study region: The Gila River, New Mexico, is characterized by two peaks in streamflow: one in the winter–spring (December–May, and summer (August–September. The region is influenced both by Pacific SST variability as well as the North American Monsoon. Study focus: The mechanisms responsible for the variability of the winter–spring and summer streamflow peaks are investigated by correlation of streamflow with precipitation and sea surface temperature for 1928–2012. Decadal variability in the flow record is examined for a longer term perspective on Gila River streamflow using tree ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate a strong influence of winter–spring precipitation and Pacific SST anomalies on the winter–spring streamflow, with El Niño conditions in the Pacific causing increased precipitation and streamflow. Decadal Pacific variability helps explain the transition from high winter flow in the late 20th century to lower flows in the most recent decade. The summer streamflow has a somewhat weaker correlation with precipitation and Pacific SST than the winter–spring streamflow. Its variability is more likely influenced by local North American Monsoon precipitation variability. PDSI and SPI reconstructions indicate much more severe and extended periods of droughts and pluvials in past centuries as well as periods of concurrent winter and summer drought. Keywords: Streamflow decadal variability, Drought, Pluvials, Treering, Teleconnections, North American Monsoon

Assessing the Influence of Precipitation Variability on the Vegetation Dynamics of the Mediterranean Rangelands using NDVI and Machine Learning

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Daliakopoulos, Ioannis; Tsanis, Ioannis

2017-04-01

Mitigating the vulnerability of Mediterranean rangelands against degradation is limited by our ability to understand and accurately characterize those impacts in space and time. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a radiometric measure of the photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by green vegetation canopy chlorophyll and is therefore a good surrogate measure of vegetation dynamics. On the other hand, meteorological indices such as the drought assessing Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) are can be easily estimated from historical and projected datasets at the global scale. This work investigates the potential of driving Random Forest (RF) models with meteorological indices to approximate NDVI-based vegetation dynamics. A sufficiently large number of RF models are trained using random subsets of the dataset as predictors, in a bootstrapping approach to account for the uncertainty introduced by the subset selection. The updated E-OBS-v13.1 dataset of the ENSEMBLES EU FP6 program provides observed monthly meteorological input to estimate SPI over the Mediterranean rangelands. RF models are trained to depict vegetation dynamics using the latest version (3g.v1) of the third generation GIMMS NDVI generated from NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors. Analysis is conducted for the period 1981-2015 at a gridded spatial resolution of 25 km. Preliminary results demonstrate the potential of machine learning algorithms to effectively mimic the underlying physical relationship of drought and Earth Observation vegetation indices to provide estimates based on precipitation variability.

Statistical downscaling of precipitation using long short-term memory recurrent neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Misra, Saptarshi; Sarkar, Sudeshna; Mitra, Pabitra

2017-11-01

Hydrological impacts of global climate change on regional scale are generally assessed by downscaling large-scale climatic variables, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), to regional, small-scale hydrometeorological variables like precipitation, temperature, etc. In this study, we propose a new statistical downscaling model based on Recurrent Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory which captures the spatio-temporal dependencies in local rainfall. The previous studies have used several other methods such as linear regression, quantile regression, kernel regression, beta regression, and artificial neural networks. Deep neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been shown to be highly promising in modeling complex and highly non-linear relationships between input and output variables in different domains and hence we investigated their performance in the task of statistical downscaling. We have tested this model on two datasets—one on precipitation in Mahanadi basin in India and the second on precipitation in Campbell River basin in Canada. Our autoencoder coupled long short-term memory recurrent neural network model performs the best compared to other existing methods on both the datasets with respect to temporal cross-correlation, mean squared error, and capturing the extremes.

CHARACTERISTICS OF MEI-YU PRECIPITATION AND SVD ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVERS VALLEYS AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

MAO Wen-shu; WANG Qian-qian; PENG Jun; LI Yong-hua

2008-01-01

Based on the precipitation data of Meiyu at 37 stations in the valleys of Yangtze and Huaihe Rivers from 1954 to 2001, the temporal-spatial characteristics of Meiyu precipitation and their relationships with the sea surface temperature in northern Pacific are investigated using such methods as harmonic analysis, empirical orthogonal function (EOF), composite analysis and singular value decomposition (SVD). The results show that the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of Meiyu precipitation are not homogeneous in the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basins but with prominent inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities. The key region between the anomalies of Meiyu precipitation and the monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) lies in the west wind drift of North Pacific, which influences the precipitation anomaly of Meiyu precipitation over a key period of time from January to March in the same year. When the SST in the North Pacific west wind drift is warmer (colder) than average during these months, Meiyu precipitation anomalously increases (decreases) in the concurrent year. Results of SVD are consistent with those of composite analysis which pass the significance test of Monte-Carlo at 0.05.

Hydroclimate variability: comparing dendroclimatic records and future GCM scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lapp, S.

2008-01-01

Drought events of the 20th Century in western North America have been linked to teleconnections that influence climate variability on inter-annual and decadal to multi-decadal time scales. These teleconnections represent the changes sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical and extra-tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean, ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), respectively, and the Atlantic Ocean, AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and also to atmospheric circulation patterns (PNA: Pacific-North American). A network of precipitation sensitive tree-ring chronologies from Montana, Alberta, Saskatchewan and NWT highly correlate to the climate moisture index (CMI) of precipitation potential evapotranspiration (P-PET), thus, capturing the long-term hydroclimatic variability of the region. Reconstructions of annual and seasonal CMI identify drought events in previous centuries that are more extreme in magnitude, frequency and duration than recorded during the instrumental period. Variability in the future climate will include these natural climate cycles as well as modulations of these cycles affected by human induced global warming. The proxy hydroclimate records derived from tree-rings present information on decadal and multi-decadal hydroclimatic variability for the past millennium; therefore, providing a unique opportunity to validate the climate variability simulated by GCMs (Global Climate Models) on longer time scales otherwise constrained by the shorter observation records. Developing scenarios of future variability depends: 1) on our understanding of the interaction of these teleconnection; and, 2) to identify climate models that are able to accurately simulate the hydroclimatic variability as detected in the instrumental and proxy records. (author)

Exploring the effects of climatic variables on monthly precipitation variation using a continuous wavelet-based multiscale entropy approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Roushangar, Kiyoumars; Alizadeh, Farhad; Adamowski, Jan

2018-08-01

Understanding precipitation on a regional basis is an important component of water resources planning and management. The present study outlines a methodology based on continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and multiscale entropy (CWME), combined with self-organizing map (SOM) and k-means clustering techniques, to measure and analyze the complexity of precipitation. Historical monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 at 31 rain gauges across Iran were preprocessed by CWT. The multi-resolution CWT approach segregated the major features of the original precipitation series by unfolding the structure of the time series which was often ambiguous. The entropy concept was then applied to components obtained from CWT to measure dispersion, uncertainty, disorder, and diversification of subcomponents. Based on different validity indices, k-means clustering captured homogenous areas more accurately, and additional analysis was performed based on the outcome of this approach. The 31 rain gauges in this study were clustered into 6 groups, each one having a unique CWME pattern across different time scales. The results of clustering showed that hydrologic similarity (multiscale variation of precipitation) was not based on geographic contiguity. According to the pattern of entropy across the scales, each cluster was assigned an entropy signature that provided an estimation of the entropy pattern of precipitation data in each cluster. Based on the pattern of mean CWME for each cluster, a characteristic signature was assigned, which provided an estimation of the CWME of a cluster across scales of 1-2, 3-8, and 9-13 months relative to other stations. The validity of the homogeneous clusters demonstrated the usefulness of the proposed approach to regionalize precipitation. Further analysis based on wavelet coherence (WTC) was performed by selecting central rain gauges in each cluster and analyzing against temperature, wind, Multivariate ENSO index (MEI), and East Atlantic (EA) and

Identifying and Analyzing Uncertainty Structures in the TRMM Microwave Imager Precipitation Product over Tropical Ocean Basins

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jianbo; Kummerow, Christian D.; Elsaesser, Gregory S.

2016-01-01

Despite continuous improvements in microwave sensors and retrieval algorithms, our understanding of precipitation uncertainty is quite limited, due primarily to inconsistent findings in studies that compare satellite estimates to in situ observations over different parts of the world. This study seeks to characterize the temporal and spatial properties of uncertainty in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager surface rainfall product over tropical ocean basins. Two uncertainty analysis frameworks are introduced to qualitatively evaluate the properties of uncertainty under a hierarchy of spatiotemporal data resolutions. The first framework (i.e. 'climate method') demonstrates that, apart from random errors and regionally dependent biases, a large component of the overall precipitation uncertainty is manifested in cyclical patterns that are closely related to large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. By estimating the magnitudes of major uncertainty sources independently, the climate method is able to explain 45-88% of the monthly uncertainty variability. The percentage is largely resolution dependent (with the lowest percentage explained associated with a 1 deg x 1 deg spatial/1 month temporal resolution, and highest associated with a 3 deg x 3 deg spatial/3 month temporal resolution). The second framework (i.e. 'weather method') explains regional mean precipitation uncertainty as a summation of uncertainties associated with individual precipitation systems. By further assuming that self-similar recurring precipitation systems yield qualitatively comparable precipitation uncertainties, the weather method can consistently resolve about 50 % of the daily uncertainty variability, with only limited dependence on the regions of interest.

Reconstructing missing information on precipitation datasets: impact of tails on adopted statistical distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Pedretti, Daniele; Beckie, Roger Daniel

2014-05-01

Missing data in hydrological time-series databases are ubiquitous in practical applications, yet it is of fundamental importance to make educated decisions in problems involving exhaustive time-series knowledge. This includes precipitation datasets, since recording or human failures can produce gaps in these time series. For some applications, directly involving the ratio between precipitation and some other quantity, lack of complete information can result in poor understanding of basic physical and chemical dynamics involving precipitated water. For instance, the ratio between precipitation (recharge) and outflow rates at a discharge point of an aquifer (e.g. rivers, pumping wells, lysimeters) can be used to obtain aquifer parameters and thus to constrain model-based predictions. We tested a suite of methodologies to reconstruct missing information in rainfall datasets. The goal was to obtain a suitable and versatile method to reduce the errors given by the lack of data in specific time windows. Our analyses included both a classical chronologically-pairing approach between rainfall stations and a probability-based approached, which accounted for the probability of exceedence of rain depths measured at two or multiple stations. Our analyses proved that it is not clear a priori which method delivers the best methodology. Rather, this selection should be based considering the specific statistical properties of the rainfall dataset. In this presentation, our emphasis is to discuss the effects of a few typical parametric distributions used to model the behavior of rainfall. Specifically, we analyzed the role of distributional "tails", which have an important control on the occurrence of extreme rainfall events. The latter strongly affect several hydrological applications, including recharge-discharge relationships. The heavy-tailed distributions we considered were parametric Log-Normal, Generalized Pareto, Generalized Extreme and Gamma distributions. The methods were

Time variation of the effect of geographical factors on spatial distribution of summer precipitation over the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Moliba Bankanza, Jacques Celestin

2011-01-01

Roč. 115, 1-2 (2011), s. 51-70 ISSN 0324-6329 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : multivariate regression * precipitation models * summer precipitation * geographic influence * environmental variables * temporal variability * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.364, year: 2011 http://owww.met.hu/download.php?id=2&vol=115&no=1-2&a=4

Comparison of five gridded precipitation products at climatological scales over West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Ogunjobi, K. O.; Ajayi, V. O.; Adefisan, E. A.; Omotosho, J. A.; Sanogo, S.

2017-12-01

The paper aimed at assessing the capabilities and limitations of five different precipitation products to describe rainfall over West Africa. Five gridded precipitation datasets of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Multi-Platform Analysis (TMPA 3B43v7); University of Delaware (UDEL version 3.01); Climatic Research Unit (CRU version 3.1); Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC version 7) and African Rainfall Climatology (ARC version 2) were compared and validated with reference ground observation data from 81 stations spanning a 19-year period, from January 1990 to December 2008. Spatial investigation of the precipitation datasets was performed, and their capability to replicate the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability was also assessed. The ability of the products to capture the El Nino and La Nina events were also assessed. Results show that all the five datasets depicted similar spatial distribution of mean rainfall climatology, although differences exist in the total rainfall amount for each precipitation dataset. Further analysis shows that the three distinct phases of the mean annual cycle of the West Africa Monsoon precipitation were well captured by the datasets. However, CRU, GPCC and UDEL failed to capture the little dry season in the month of August while UDEL and GPCC underestimated rainfall amount in the Sahel region. Results of the inter-annual precipitation anomalies shows that ARC2 fail to capture about 46% of the observed variability while the other four datasets exhibits a greater performance ( r > 0.9). All the precipitation dataset except ARC2 were consistent with the ground observation in capturing the dry and wet conditions associated with El Nino and La Nina events, respectively. ARC2 tends to overestimate the El Nino event and failed to capture the La Nina event in all the years considered. In general GPCC, CRU and TRMM were found to be the most outstanding datasets and can, therefore, be used for precipitation

Spatio-temporal interpolation of precipitation during monsoon periods in Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Hussain, Ijaz; Spöck, Gunter; Pilz, Jürgen; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2010-08-01

Spatio-temporal estimation of precipitation over a region is essential to the modeling of hydrologic processes for water resources management. The changes of magnitude and space-time heterogeneity of rainfall observations make space-time estimation of precipitation a challenging task. In this paper we propose a Box-Cox transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation method for the skewed response variable. The proposed method is applied to estimate space-time monthly precipitation in the monsoon periods during 1974-2000, and 27-year monthly average precipitation data are obtained from 51 stations in Pakistan. The results of transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation are compared to those of non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian interpolation by using cross-validation. The software developed by [11] is used for Bayesian non-stationary multivariate space-time interpolation. It is observed that the transformed hierarchical Bayesian method provides more accuracy than the non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian method.

Precipitation model in microalloyed steels both isothermal and continuous cooling conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medina, S. F.; Quispe, A.; Gomez, M.

2015-01-01

Niobium and vanadium precipitates (nitrides and carbides) can inhibit the static recrystallization of austenite but this does not happen for Ti, which form nitrides at high temperatures. RPTT diagrams show the interaction between recrystallization and precipitation allowing study the strain induced precipitation kinetics and precipitate coarsening. Based on Dutta and Sellars expression for the start of strain-induced precipitation in microalloyed steels, a new model has been constructed which takes into account the influence of variables such as microalloying element percentages, strain, temperature, strain rate and grain size. Recrystallization- Precipitation-Time-Temperature (RPTT) diagrams have been plotted thanks to a new experimental study carried out by means of hot torsion tests on approximately twenty microalloyed steels with different Nb, V and Ti contents. Mathematical analysis of the results recommends the modification of some parameters such as the supersaturation ratio (ks) and constant B, which is no longer a constant but a function of ks. The expressions are now more consistent and predict the Precipitation-Time-Temperature (PTT) curves with remarkable accuracy. The model for strain-induced precipitation kinetics is completed by means of Avramis equation. Finally, the model constructed in isothermal testing conditions, it has been converted to continuous cooling conditions in order to apply it in hot rolling. (Author)

An assessment of differences in gridded precipitation datasets in complex terrain

Science.gov (United States)

Henn, Brian; Newman, Andrew J.; Livneh, Ben; Daly, Christopher; Lundquist, Jessica D.

2018-01-01

Hydrologic modeling and other geophysical applications are sensitive to precipitation forcing data quality, and there are known challenges in spatially distributing gauge-based precipitation over complex terrain. We conduct a comparison of six high-resolution, daily and monthly gridded precipitation datasets over the Western United States. We compare the long-term average spatial patterns, and interannual variability of water-year total precipitation, as well as multi-year trends in precipitation across the datasets. We find that the greatest absolute differences among datasets occur in high-elevation areas and in the maritime mountain ranges of the Western United States, while the greatest percent differences among datasets relative to annual total precipitation occur in arid and rain-shadowed areas. Differences between datasets in some high-elevation areas exceed 200 mm yr-1 on average, and relative differences range from 5 to 60% across the Western United States. In areas of high topographic relief, true uncertainties and biases are likely higher than the differences among the datasets; we present evidence of this based on streamflow observations. Precipitation trends in the datasets differ in magnitude and sign at smaller scales, and are sensitive to how temporal inhomogeneities in the underlying precipitation gauge data are handled.

Salts-based size-selective precipitation: toward mass precipitation of aqueous nanoparticles.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chun-Lei; Fang, Min; Xu, Shu-Hong; Cui, Yi-Ping

2010-01-19

Purification is a necessary step before the application of nanocrystals (NCs), since the excess matter in nanoparticles solution usually causes a disadvantage to their subsequent coupling or assembling with other materials. In this work, a novel salts-based precipitation technique is originally developed for the precipitation and size-selective precipitation of aqueous NCs. Simply by addition of salts, NCs can be precipitated from the solution. After decantation of the supernatant solution, the precipitates can be dispersed in water again. By means of adjusting the addition amount of salt, size-selective precipitation of aqueous NCs can be achieved. Namely, the NCs with large size are precipitated preferentially, leaving small NCs in solution. Compared with the traditional nonsolvents-based precipitation technique, the current one is simpler and more rapid due to the avoidance of condensation and heating manipulations used in the traditional precipitation process. Moreover, the salts-based precipitation technique was generally available for the precipitation of aqueous nanoparticles, no matter if there were semiconductor NCs or metal nanoparticles. Simultaneously, the cost of the current method is also much lower than that of the traditional nonsolvents-based precipitation technique, making it applicable for mass purification of aqueous NCs.

Bivariate return periods of temperature and precipitation explain a large fraction of European crop yields

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Zscheischler

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Crops are vital for human society. Crop yields vary with climate and it is important to understand how climate and crop yields are linked to ensure future food security. Temperature and precipitation are among the key driving factors of crop yield variability. Previous studies have investigated mostly linear relationships between temperature and precipitation and crop yield variability. Other research has highlighted the adverse impacts of climate extremes, such as drought and heat waves, on crop yields. Impacts are, however, often non-linearly related to multivariate climate conditions. Here we derive bivariate return periods of climate conditions as indicators for climate variability along different temperature–precipitation gradients. We show that in Europe, linear models based on bivariate return periods of specific climate conditions explain on average significantly more crop yield variability (42 % than models relying directly on temperature and precipitation as predictors (36 %. Our results demonstrate that most often crop yields increase along a gradient from hot and dry to cold and wet conditions, with lower yields associated with hot and dry periods. The majority of crops are most sensitive to climate conditions in summer and to maximum temperatures. The use of bivariate return periods allows the integration of non-linear impacts into climate–crop yield analysis. This offers new avenues to study the link between climate and crop yield variability and suggests that they are possibly more strongly related than what is inferred from conventional linear models.

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Arkin, Philip; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Gruber, Arnold; Janowiak, John; McNab, Alan; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo

1997-01-01

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has released the GPCP Version 1 Combined Precipitation Data Set, a global, monthly precipitation dataset covering the period July 1987 through December 1995. The primary product in the dataset is a merged analysis incorporating precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit -satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The dataset also contains the individual input fields, a combination of the microwave and infrared satellite estimates, and error estimates for each field. The data are provided on 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude global grids. Preliminary analyses show general agreement with prior studies of global precipitation and extends prior studies of El Nino-Southern Oscillation precipitation patterns. At the regional scale there are systematic differences with standard climatologies.

High resolution reconstruction of monthly autumn and winter precipitation of Iberian Peninsula for last 150 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Cortesi, N.; Trigo, R.; González-Hidalgo, J. C.; Ramos, A.

2012-04-01

Precipitation over Iberian Peninsula (IP) presents large values of interannual variability and large spatial contrasts between wet mountainous regions in the north and dry regions in the southern plains. Unlike other European regions, IP was poorly monitored for precipitation during 19th century. Here we present a new approach to fill this gap. A set of 26 atmospheric circulation weather types (Trigo R.M. and DaCamara C.C., 2000) derived from a recent SLP dataset, the EMULATE (European and North Atlantic daily to multidecadal climate variability) Project, was used to reconstruct Iberian monthly precipitation from October to March during 1851-1947. Principal Component Regression Analysis was chosen to develop monthly precipitation reconstruction back to 1851 and calibrated over 1948-2003 period for 3030 monthly precipitation series of high-density homogenized MOPREDAS (Monthly Precipitation Database for Spain and Portugal) database. Validation was conducted over 1920-1947 at 15 key site locations. Results show high model performance for selected months, with a mean coefficient of variation (CV) around 0.6 during validation period. Lower CV values were achieved in western area of IP. Trigo, R. M., and DaCamara, C.C., 2000: "Circulation weather types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal". Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1559-1581.

Predictability of Extreme Precipitations Over the Conterminous us, 1949-2010

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Jiang, M.; Felzer, B. S.

2015-12-01

Extreme precipitation plays an important role in regulating ecosystem services. Precipitation extremes vary in magnitude and duration both spatially and temporally, making it one of the most challenging climate variables to comprehend and predict. Using information theory, we provide an attempt to improve understanding of the predictability of extreme precipitation in the conterminous U.S. over the period of 1949-2010. We define predictability as the recurrent likelihood of patterns described by the measures of constancy and contingency, with the former describing the inter-annual variability and the latter describing the seasonality. This study shows that there are clear west-east contrasts of predictability over the U.S. landscape, with a generally decreasing gradient from the Northeast to the Southwest for intensity-based extremes and a generally increasing gradient from the West to the East for duration-based extremes. We further identify spatially heterogeneous patterns of temporal changes in predictability over the investigated timeframe. Finally, it is evident that constancy plays a heavier role in regulating predictability increases for both intensity and duration-based extremes and for predictability decreases for duration-based extremes, while contingency contributes equally with constancy to determining the decreases in predictability for intensity-based extremes.

Sensitive indicators of Stipa bungeana response to precipitation under ambient and elevated CO2 concentration

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Yaohui; Zhou, Guangsheng; Jiang, Yanling; Wang, Hui; Xu, Zhenzhu

2018-02-01

Precipitation is a primary environmental factor in the semiarid grasslands of northern China. With increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, precipitation regimes will change, and high-impact weather events may be more common. Currently, many ecophysiological indicators are known to reflect drought conditions, but these indicators vary greatly among species, and few studies focus on the applicability of these drought indicators under high CO2 conditions. In this study, five precipitation levels (- 30%, - 15%, control, + 15%, and + 30%) were used to simulate the effects of precipitation change on 18 ecophysiological characteristics in Stipa bungeana, including leaf area, plant height, leaf nitrogen (N), and chlorophyll content, among others. Two levels of CO2 concentration (ambient, 390 ppm; 550 ppm) were used to simulate the effects of elevated CO2 on these drought indicators. Using gray relational analysis and phenotypic plasticity analysis, we found that total leaf area or leaf number (morphology), leaf water potential or leaf water content (physiology), and aboveground biomass better reflected the water status of S. bungeana under ambient and elevated CO2 than the 13 other analyzed variables. The sensitivity of drought indicators changed under the elevated CO2 condition. By quantifying the relationship between precipitation and the five most sensitive indicators, we found that the thresholds of precipitation decreased under elevated CO2 concentration. These results will be useful for objective monitoring and assessment of the occurrence and development of drought events in S. bungeana grasslands.

Mechanisms and kinetics of precipitate restructuring during irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potter, D.I.; Wiedersich, H.

1979-01-01

Irradiations were performed at temperatures from 400 to 700 0 C using 3.0-MeV 58 Ni + ions in order to investigate γ'-precipitate restructuring in two model alloys: Ni-12.8 at% Al and Ni-12.7 at% Si. The precipitates coarsened, with the third power of the average diameter proportional to the damage dose. The temperature dependence of the rate constants for irradiated specimens is described in terms of a modified Lifschitz-Slyozov-Wagner coarsening model that includes radiation-enhanced diffusion. Redistribution of precipitate by enhanced precipitation (Ni-Si) or precipitate dissolution (Ni-Al) at point-defect sinks caused maxima in γ' size with dose. Precipitate redistribution at the free surfaces of irradiated thin foils and at γ/γ' particle interfaces is described. (Auth.)

Seasonal Precipitation Variability Effects on Carbon Exchange in a Tropical Dry Forest of Northwest Mexico

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Verduzco, V.; Garatuza-Payan, J.; Yépez, E. A.; Watts, C. J.; Rodriguez, J. C.; Robles-Morua, A.; Vivoni, E. R.

2015-12-01

The Tropical Dry Forest (TDF) cover a large area in tropical and subtropical regions in the Americas and its productivity is thought to have an important contribution to the atmospheric carbon fluxes. However, due to this ecosystem complex dynamics, our understanding about the mechanisms controlling net ecosystem exchange is limited. In this study, five years of continue water and carbon fluxes measurements from eddy covariance complemented with remotely sensed vegetation greenness were used to investigate the ecosystem carbon balance of a TDF in the North American Monsoon region under different hydro climatic conditions. We identified a large CO2 efflux at the start of the summer season that is strongly related to the preceding winter precipitation and greenness. Since this CO2 efflux occurs prior to vegetation green-up, we infer a predominant heterotrophic control owed to high decomposition of accumulated labile soil organic matter from prior growing season. Overall, ecosystem respiration has an important effect on the net ecosystem production over the year, but can be overwhelmed by the strength of the primary productivity during the monsoon season. Precipitation characteristics during the monsoon have significant controls on sustaining carbon fixation in the TDF ecosystem into the fall season. A threshold of ~350 to 400 mm of summer precipitation was identify to switch the annual carbon balance in the TDF ecosystem from a net source (+102 g C/m2/yr) to a net sink (-249 g C/m2/yr). This research points at the needs for understanding the potential effects of changing seasonal precipitation patterns on ecosystem dynamics and carbon sequestration in subtropical regions.

How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

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Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

2016-04-01

The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

Detection of non-natural springtime precipitation change over northern South America

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Barkhordarian, A.; Behrangi, A.; Mechoso, C. R.

2017-12-01

Here we determine whether the climate over South America has changed as a result of human activity since the beginning of the industrial revolution. To this end, we assess whether the observed changes are likely to have been due to natural (internal) variability alone, and if not, whether they are consistent with what models simulate as response to anthropogenic and natural forcing. Internal variability is estimated using 12,000-year control runs derived from CMIP5 archive. Results indicate that, in the past decades, trends in springtime (ASO, August-October) precipitation over South America have a magnitude that is beyond the estimated range due to natural (internal) variability or natural forcings alone. Evidence for the presence of an external driving factor is clearly detectable in the observed precipitation record (with less than 5% risk of error). The regression results illustrate the concerted emergence of an anthropogenic signal consistent with greenhouse gas (GHG) in observed decreasing 30-year trends of precipitation ending in 1998 and later on. In addition, the fingerprint of land-use-change signal is detectable in the observed precipitation decrease over 1983-2012. While the influence of GHG signal is detectable in precipitation, an observed decrease up to 10 mm/decade drying over the Amazon region, is much larger than the changes simulated by global and regional climate models as response to GHG forcing. We further show that the projected increasing trend of vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an indicator of background aridity, by the climate models with GHG forcing is much smaller than that observed over the Amazon rainforest. This may imply that models may underestimate the resulting reductions in forest CO2 uptake that could function as a positive feedback to rising temperature and reducing precipitation. Taking the ensemble of 23 IPCC models as a crude metric of probabilities, we further show that with 19 out of 24 models the effect of GS signal

An intercomparison of observational precipitation data sets over Northwest India during winter

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Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Winter (DJF) precipitation over Northwest India (NWI) is very important for the cultivation of Rabi crops. Thus, an accurate estimation of high-resolution observations, evaluation of high-resolution numerical models, and understanding the local variability trends are essential. The objective of this study is to verify the quality of a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded daily precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD1) over NWI during winter. An intercomparison with four existing precipitation data sets at 0.5° × 0.5° of IMD (IMD2), 1° × 1° of IMD (IMD3), 0.25° × 0.25° of APHRODITE (APRD1), and 0.5° × 0.5° of APHRODITE (APRD1) resolution during a common period of 1971-2003 is done. The evaluation of data quality of these five data sets against available 26 station observations is carried out, and the results clearly indicate that all the five data sets reasonably agreed with the station observation. However, the errors are relatively more in all the five data sets over Jammu and Kashmir-related four stations (Srinagar, Drass, Banihal top, and Dawar), while these errors are less in the other stations. It may be due to the lack of station observations over the region. The quality of IMD1 data set over NWI for winter precipitation is reasonably well than the other data sets. The intercomparison analysis suggests that the climatological mean, interannual variability, and coefficient of variation from IMD1 are similar with other data sets. Further, the analysis extended to the India meteorological subdivisions over the region. This analysis indicates overestimation in IMD3 and underestimation in APRD1 and APRD2 over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and NWI as a whole, whereas IMD2 is closer to IMD1. Moreover, all the five data sets are highly correlated (>0.5) among them at 99.9% confidence level for all subdivisions. It is remarkably noticed that multicategorical (light precipitation, moderate precipitation, heavy

Improving Global Precipitation Product Access at the GES DISC

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Z.; Vollmer, B.; Savtchenko, A.; Ostrenga, D.; DeShong, B.; Fang, F.; Albayrak, R,; Sherman, E.; Greene, M.; Li, A.;

Winter-spring precipitation reconstructions from tree rings for northeast Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Villanueva-Diaz, J.; Cerano-Paredes, J. [Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias, Centro Nacional de Investigacion Disciplinarioa en Relacion Agua, Suelo, Planta. Km 6.5 Margen Derecha del Canal Sacramento Gomez Palacio, Durango, 35140 (Mexico); Stahle, D.W.; Cleaveland, M.K. [Tree-Ring Laboratory, Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, fayetteville, Arkansas 72701 (United States); Luckman, B.H. [Department of Geography, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, N6A5C3 (Canada); Therrell, M.D. [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 29904 (United States); Cornejo-Oviedo, E. [Departamento Forestal, Universidad Autonoma Agraria Antonio Narro, Saltillo, Coahuila (Mexico)

2007-07-15

The understanding of historic hydroclimatic variability is basic for planning proper management of limited water resources in northeastern Mexico. The objective of this study was to develop a network of tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct hydroclimate variability in northeastern Mexico and to analyze the influence of large-scale circulation patterns, such as ENSO. Precipitation sensitive tree-ring chronologies of Douglas-fir were developed in mountain ranges of the Sierra Madre Oriental and used to produce winter-spring precipitation reconstructions for central and southern Nuevo Leon, and southeastern Coahuila. The seasonal winter-spring precipitation reconstructions are 342 years long (1659-2001) for Saltillo, Coahuila and 602 years long (1400-2002) for central and southern Nuevo Leon. Both reconstructions show droughts in the 1810s, 1870s, 1890s, 1910s, and 1970s, and wet periods in the 1770s, 1930s, 1960s, and 1980s. Prior to 1800s the reconstructions are less similar. The impact of ENSO in northeastern Mexico (as measured by the Tropical Rainfall Index) indicated long-term instability of the Pacific equatorial teleconnection. Atmospheric circulation systems coming from higher latitudes (cold fronts or 'nortes') and others developed in the Gulf of Mexico (tropical storms, hurricanes) also influence the climatic conditions characterizing this region. The recent development of new and longer tree-ring chronologies for the region will contribute to a better understanding of the interannual and multidecadal climatic variability of northeastern Mexico.

Performance Assessment of Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP Product over India

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Akhilesh S. Nair

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Error characterization is vital for the advancement of precipitation algorithms, the evaluation of numerical model outputs, and their integration in various hydro-meteorological applications. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA has been a benchmark for successive Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM based products. This has given way to the evolution of many multi-satellite precipitation products. This study evaluates the performance of the newly released multi-satellite Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP product, whose temporal variability was determined based on several data products including TMPA 3B42 RT. The evaluation was conducted over India with respect to the IMD-gauge-based rainfall for pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post monsoon seasons at daily scale for a 35-year (1979–2013 period. The rainfall climatology is examined over India and over four geographical extents within India known to be subject to uniform rainfall. The performance evaluation of rainfall time series was carried out. In addition to this, the performance of the product over different rainfall classes was evaluated along with the contribution of each class to the total rainfall. Further, seasonal evaluation of the MSWEP products was based on the categorical and volumetric indices from the contingency table. Upon evaluation it was observed that the MSWEP products show large errors in detecting the higher quantiles of rainfall (>75th and > 95th quantiles. The MSWEP precipitation product available at a 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution matched well with the daily IMD rainfall over India. Overall results suggest that a suitable region and season-dependent bias correction is essential before its integration in hydrological applications. While the MSWEP was observed to perform well for daily rainfall, it suffered from poor detection capabilities for higher quantiles, making

Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin

Science.gov (United States)

Aloysius, Noel; Saiers, James

2017-08-01

Despite their global significance, the impacts of climate change on water resources and associated ecosystem services in the Congo River basin (CRB) have been understudied. Of particular need for decision makers is the availability of spatial and temporal variability of runoff projections. Here, with the aid of a spatially explicit hydrological model forced with precipitation and temperature projections from 25 global climate models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we explore the variability in modeled runoff in the near future (2016-2035) and mid-century (2046-2065). We find that total runoff from the CRB is projected to increase by 5 % [-9 %; 20 %] (mean - min and max - across model ensembles) over the next two decades and by 7 % [-12 %; 24 %] by mid-century. Projected changes in runoff from subwatersheds distributed within the CRB vary in magnitude and sign. Over the equatorial region and in parts of northern and southwestern CRB, most models project an overall increase in precipitation and, subsequently, runoff. A simulated decrease in precipitation leads to a decline in runoff from headwater regions located in the northeastern and southeastern CRB. Climate model selection plays an important role in future projections for both magnitude and direction of change. The multimodel ensemble approach reveals that precipitation and runoff changes under business-as-usual and avoided greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5) are relatively similar in the near term but deviate in the midterm, which underscores the need for rapid action on climate change adaptation. Our assessment demonstrates the need to include uncertainties in climate model and emission scenario selection during decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

THE EVOLUTION OF ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION QUANTITY VARIABILITY BASED ON ESTIMATED CHANGES BY THE REGIONAL CLIMATIC MODELS

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Paula Furtună

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Climatic changes are representing one of the major challenges of our century, these being forcasted according to climate scenarios and models, which represent plausible and concrete images of future climatic conditions. The results of climate models comparison regarding future water resources and temperature regime trend can become a useful instrument for decision makers in choosing the most effective decisions regarding economic, social and ecologic levels. The aim of this article is the analysis of temperature and pluviometric variability at the closest grid point to Cluj-Napoca, based on data provided by six different regional climate models (RCMs. Analysed on 30 year periods (2001-2030,2031-2060 and 2061-2090, the mean temperature has an ascending general trend, with great varability between periods. The precipitation expressed trough percentage deviation shows a descending general trend, which is more emphazied during 2031-2060 and 2061-2090.

Direct-phase-variable model of a synchronous reluctance motor including all slot and winding harmonics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Obe, Emeka S.; Binder, A.

2011-01-01

A detailed model in direct-phase variables of a synchronous reluctance motor operating at mains voltage and frequency is presented. The model includes the stator and rotor slot openings, the actual winding layout and the reluctance rotor geometry. Hence, all mmf and permeance harmonics are taken into account. It is seen that non-negligible harmonics introduced by slots are present in the inductances computed by the winding function procedure. These harmonics are usually ignored in d-q models. The machine performance is simulated in the stator reference frame to depict the difference between this new direct-phase model including all harmonics and the conventional rotor reference frame d-q model. Saturation is included by using a polynomial fitting the variation of d-axis inductance with stator current obtained by finite-element software FEMAG DC (registered) . The detailed phase-variable model can yield torque pulsations comparable to those obtained from finite elements while the d-q model cannot.

Regional simulation of interannual variability over South America

Science.gov (United States)

Misra, V.; Dirmeyer, P. A.; Kirtman, B. P.; Juang, H.-M. Henry; Kanamitsu, M.

2002-08-01

Three regional climate simulations covering the austral summer season during three contrasting phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle were conducted with the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The simulated interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon River Basin, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins, and extratropical South America compare reasonably well with observations. The RSM optimally filters the peturbations about a time-varying base field, thereby enhancing the information content of the global NCEP reanalysis. The model is better than the reanalysis in reproducing the observed interannual variability of outgoing longwave radiation at both high frequencies (3-30 days) and intraseasonal (30-60 days) scales. The low-level jet shows a peak in its speed in 1998 and a minimum in the 1999 simulations. The lag correlation of the jet index with convection over various areas in continental South America indicates that the jet induces precipitation over the Pampas region downstream. A detailed moisture budget was conducted over various subregions. This budget reveals that moisture flux convergence determines most of the interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon Basin, the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the Nordeste region of Brazil. However, both surface evaporation and surface moisture flux convergence were found to be critical in determining the interannual variability of precipitation over the southern Pampas, Gran Chaco area, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone.

Maximizing recovery of water-soluble proteins through acetone precipitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Crowell, Andrew M J; Wall, Mark J; Doucette, Alan A

2013-09-24

Solvent precipitation is commonly used to purify protein samples, as seen with the removal of sodium dodecyl sulfate through acetone precipitation. However, in its current practice, protein loss is believed to be an inevitable consequence of acetone precipitation. We herein provide an in depth characterization of protein recovery through acetone precipitation. In 80% acetone, the precipitation efficiency for six of 10 protein standards was poor (ca. ≤15%). Poor recovery was also observed for proteome extracts, including bacterial and mammalian cells. As shown in this work, increasing the ionic strength of the solution dramatically improves the precipitation efficiency of individual proteins, and proteome mixtures (ca. 80-100% yield). This is obtained by including 1-30 mM NaCl, together with acetone (50-80%) which maximizes protein precipitation efficiency. The amount of salt required to restore the recovery correlates with the amount of protein in the sample, as well as the intrinsic protein charge, and the dielectric strength of the solution. This synergistic approach to protein precipitation in acetone with salt is consistent with a model of ion pairing in organic solvent, and establishes an improved method to recover proteins and proteome mixtures in high yield. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonality in ENSO-related precipitation, river discharges, soil moisture, and vegetation index in Colombia

Science.gov (United States)

Poveda, GermáN.; Jaramillo, Alvaro; Gil, Marta MaríA.; Quiceno, Natalia; Mantilla, Ricardo I.

2001-08-01

An analysis of hydrologic variability in Colombia shows different seasonal effects associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Spectral and cross-correlation analyses are developed between climatic indices of the tropical Pacific Ocean and the annual cycle of Colombia's hydrology: precipitation, river flows, soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Our findings indicate stronger anomalies during December-February and weaker during March-May. The effects of ENSO are stronger for streamflow than for precipitation, owing to concomitant effects on soil moisture and evapotranspiration. We studied time variability of 10-day average volumetric soil moisture, collected at the tropical Andes of central Colombia at depths of 20 and 40 cm, in coffee growing areas characterized by shading vegetation ("shaded coffee"), forest, and sunlit coffee. The annual and interannual variability of soil moisture are highly intertwined for the period 1997-1999, during strong El Niño and La Niña events. Soil moisture exhibited greater negative anomalies during 1997-1998 El Niño, being strongest during the two dry seasons that normally occur in central Colombia. Soil moisture deficits were more drastic at zones covered by sunlit coffee than at those covered by forest and shaded coffee. Soil moisture responds to wetter than normal precipitation conditions during La Niña 1998-1999, reaching maximum levels throughout that period. The probability density function of soil moisture records is highly skewed and exhibits different kinds of multimodality depending upon land cover type. NDVI exhibits strong negative anomalies throughout the year during El Niños, in particular during September-November (year 0) and June-August (year 0). The strong negative relation between NDVI and El Niño has enormous implications for carbon, water, and energy budgets over the region, including the tropical Andes and Amazon River basin.

A Case for Including Atmospheric Thermodynamic Variables in Wind Turbine Fatigue Loading Parameter Identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelley, Neil D.

1999-01-01

This paper makes the case for establishing efficient predictor variables for atmospheric thermodynamics that can be used to statistically correlate the fatigue accumulation seen on wind turbines. Recently, two approaches to this issue have been reported. One uses multiple linear-regression analysis to establish the relative causality between a number of predictors related to the turbulent inflow and turbine loads. The other approach, using many of the same predictors, applies the technique of principal component analysis. An examination of the ensemble of predictor variables revealed that they were all kinematic in nature; i.e., they were only related to the description of the velocity field. Boundary-layer turbulence dynamics depends upon a description of the thermal field and its interaction with the velocity distribution. We used a series of measurements taken within a multi-row wind farm to demonstrate the need to include atmospheric thermodynamic variables as well as velocity-related ones in the search for efficient turbulence loading predictors in various turbine-operating environments. Our results show that a combination of vertical stability and hub-height mean shearing stress variables meet this need over a period of 10 minutes

Impact of climate variability on runoff in the north-central United States

Science.gov (United States)

Ryberg, Karen R.; Lin, Wei; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2014-01-01

Large changes in runoff in the north-central United States have occurred during the past century, with larger floods and increases in runoff tending to occur from the 1970s to the present. The attribution of these changes is a subject of much interest. Long-term precipitation, temperature, and streamflow records were used to compare changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to changes in runoff within 25 stream basins. The basins studied were organized into four groups, each one representing basins similar in topography, climate, and historic patterns of runoff. Precipitation, PET, and runoff data were adjusted for near-decadal scale variability to examine longer-term changes. A nonlinear water-balance analysis shows that changes in precipitation and PET explain the majority of multidecadal spatial/temporal variability of runoff and flood magnitudes, with precipitation being the dominant driver. Historical changes in climate and runoff in the region appear to be more consistent with complex transient shifts in seasonal climatic conditions than with gradual climate change. A portion of the unexplained variability likely stems from land-use change.

Assessing the uncertainty of soil moisture impacts on convective precipitation using a new ensemble approach

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O. Henneberg

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Soil moisture amount and distribution control evapotranspiration and thus impact the occurrence of convective precipitation. Many recent model studies demonstrate that changes in initial soil moisture content result in modified convective precipitation. However, to quantify the resulting precipitation changes, the chaotic behavior of the atmospheric system needs to be considered. Slight changes in the simulation setup, such as the chosen model domain, also result in modifications to the simulated precipitation field. This causes an uncertainty due to stochastic variability, which can be large compared to effects caused by soil moisture variations. By shifting the model domain, we estimate the uncertainty of the model results. Our novel uncertainty estimate includes 10 simulations with shifted model boundaries and is compared to the effects on precipitation caused by variations in soil moisture amount and local distribution. With this approach, the influence of soil moisture amount and distribution on convective precipitation is quantified. Deviations in simulated precipitation can only be attributed to soil moisture impacts if the systematic effects of soil moisture modifications are larger than the inherent simulation uncertainty at the convection-resolving scale.We performed seven experiments with modified soil moisture amount or distribution to address the effect of soil moisture on precipitation. Each of the experiments consists of 10 ensemble members using the deep convection-resolving COSMO model with a grid spacing of 2.8 km. Only in experiments with very strong modification in soil moisture do precipitation changes exceed the model spread in amplitude, location or structure. These changes are caused by a 50 % soil moisture increase in either the whole or part of the model domain or by drying the whole model domain. Increasing or decreasing soil moisture both predominantly results in reduced precipitation rates. Replacing the soil

ETHANOL PRECIPITATION OF GLYCOSYL HYDROLASES PRODUCED BY Trichoderma harzianum P49P11

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M. A. Mariño

2015-06-01

Full Text Available AbstractThis study aimed to concentrate glycosyl hydrolases produced by Trichoderma harzianum P49P11 by ethanol precipitation. The variables tested besides ethanol concentration were temperature and pH. The precipitation with 90% (v/v ethanol at pH 5.0 recovered more than 98% of the xylanase activity, regard less of the temperature (5.0, 15.0, or 25.0 °C. The maximum recovery of cellulase activity as FPase was 77% by precipitation carried out at this same pH and ethanol concentration but at 5.0 °C. Therefore, ethanol precipitation can be considered to be an efficient technique for xylanase concentration and, to a certain extent, also for the cellulase complex.

The double tragedy of agriculture vulnerability to climate variability in Africa: How vulnerable is smallholder agriculture to rainfall variability in Ghana?

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Emmanuel K. Derbile

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This article analysed vulnerability of smallholder agriculture to climate variability, particularly the alternating incidences of drought and heavy precipitation events in Ghana. Although there is an unmet need for understanding the linkages between climate change and livelihoods, the urgent need for climate change adaptation planning (CCAP in response to climate change makes vulnerability assessment even more compelling in development research. The data for analysis were collected from two complementary studies. These included a regional survey in the Upper West Region and an in-depth study in three selected communities in the Sissala East District. The results showed that smallholder agriculture is significantly vulnerable to climate variability in the region and that three layers of vulnerability can be identified in a ladder of vulnerability. Firstly, farmers are confronted with the double tragedy of droughts and heavy precipitation events, which adversely affect both crops and livestock. Secondly, farmers have to decide on crops for adaptation, but each option – whether indigenous crops, new early-maturing crops or genetically modified crops – predisposes farmers to a different set of risks. Finally, the overall impact is a higher-level vulnerability, namely the risk of total livelihood failure and food insecurity. The article recommended CCAP and an endogenous development (ED approach to addressing agriculture vulnerability to climate variability within the framework of decentralisation and local governance in Ghana. Keywords: Climate variability; agriculture; vulnerability; endogenous development; Ghana

On the Precipitation and Precipitation Change in Alaska

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Gerd Wendler

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Alaska observes very large differences in precipitation throughout the state; southeast Alaska experiences consistently wet conditions, while northern Arctic Alaska observes very dry conditions. The maximum mean annual precipitation of 5727 mm is observed in the southeastern panhandle at Little Port Arthur, while the minimum of 92 mm occurs on the North Slope at Kuparuk. Besides explaining these large differences due to geographic and orographic location, we discuss the changes in precipitation with time. Analyzing the 18 first-order National Weather Service stations, we found that the total average precipitation in the state increased by 17% over the last 67 years. The observed changes in precipitation are furthermore discussed as a function of the observed temperature increase of 2.1 °C, the mean temperature change of the 18 stations over the same period. This observed warming of Alaska is about three times the magnitude of the mean global warming and allows the air to hold more water vapor. Furthermore, we discuss the effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, which has a strong influence on both the temperature and precipitation in Alaska.

Radar rainfall estimation of stratiform winter precipitation in the Belgian Ardennes

Science.gov (United States)

Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2011-02-01

Radars are known for their ability to obtain a wealth of information about spatial storm field characteristics. Unfortunately, rainfall estimates obtained by this instrument are known to be affected by multiple sources of error. Especially for stratiform precipitation systems, the quality of radar rainfall estimates starts to decrease at relatively close ranges. In the current study, the hydrological potential of weather radar is analyzed during a winter half-year for the hilly region of the Belgian Ardennes. A correction algorithm is proposed which corrects the radar data for errors related to attenuation, ground clutter, anomalous propagation, the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR), and advection. No final bias correction with respect to rain gauge data was implemented because such an adjustment would not add to a better understanding of the quality of the radar data. The impact of the different corrections is assessed using rainfall information sampled by 42 hourly rain gauges. The largest improvement in the quality of the radar data is obtained by correcting for ground clutter. The impact of VPR correction and advection depends on the spatial variability and velocity of the precipitation system. Overall during the winter period, the radar underestimates the amount of precipitation as compared to the rain gauges. Remaining differences between both instruments can be attributed to spatial and temporal variability in the type of precipitation, which has not been taken into account.

Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

Science.gov (United States)

Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

2014-05-01

The aim of study is to analyze the parameters of precipitation extremes and inequality over Ukraine in recent climate epoch and their possible changes in the future. Data of observations from 28 hydrometeorological stations over Ukraine and output of GFDL-CM3 model (CMIP5) for XXI century were used in the study. The methods of concentration index (J. Martin-Vide, 2004) for the study of precipitation inequality while the extreme precipitation indices recommended by the ETCCDI - for the frequency of events. Results. Precipitation inequality on the annual and seasonal scales was studied using estimated CI series for 1951-2005. It was found that annual CI ranges vary from 0.58 to 0.64. They increase southward from the north-west (forest zone) and the north-east (forest steppe zone) of Ukraine. CI maxima are located in the coastal regions of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Annual CI spatial distribution indicates that the contribution of extreme precipitation into annual totals is most significant at the boundary zone between steppe and marine regions. At the same time precipitation pattern at the foothill of Carpathian Mountains is more homogenous. The CI minima (0.54) are typical for the winter season in foothill of Ukrainian Carpathians. The CI maxima reach 0.71 in spring at the steppe zone closed to the Black Sea coast. It should be noted that the greatest ranges of CI maximum and CI minimum deviation are typical for spring. It is associated with patterns of cyclone trajectories in that season. The most territory is characterized by tendency to decrease the contribution of extreme precipitation into the total amount (CI linear trends are predominantly negative in all seasons). Decadal and interdecadal variability of precipitation inequality associated with global processes in ocean-atmosphere system are also studied. It was shown that precipitation inequality over Ukraine on 10 - 15 % stronger in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and in positive phase

Generating spatial precipitation ensembles: impact of temporal correlation structure

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Rakovec, O.; Hazenberg, P.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Weerts, A. H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2012-09-01

Sound spatially distributed rainfall fields including a proper spatial and temporal error structure are of key interest for hydrologists to force hydrological models and to identify uncertainties in the simulated and forecasted catchment response. The current paper presents a temporally coherent error identification method based on time-dependent multivariate spatial conditional simulations, which are conditioned on preceding simulations. A sensitivity analysis and real-world experiment are carried out within the hilly region of the Belgian Ardennes. Precipitation fields are simulated for pixels of 10 km × 10 km resolution. Uncertainty analyses in the simulated fields focus on (1) the number of previous simulation hours on which the new simulation is conditioned, (2) the advection speed of the rainfall event, (3) the size of the catchment considered, and (4) the rain gauge density within the catchment. The results for a sensitivity analysis show for typical advection speeds >20 km h-1, no uncertainty is added in terms of across ensemble spread when conditioned on more than one or two previous hourly simulations. However, for the real-world experiment, additional uncertainty can still be added when conditioning on a larger number of previous simulations. This is because for actual precipitation fields, the dynamics exhibit a larger spatial and temporal variability. Moreover, by thinning the observation network with 50%, the added uncertainty increases only slightly and the cross-validation shows that the simulations at the unobserved locations are unbiased. Finally, the first-order autocorrelation coefficients show clear temporal coherence in the time series of the areal precipitation using the time-dependent multivariate conditional simulations, which was not the case using the time-independent univariate conditional simulations. The presented work can be easily implemented within a hydrological calibration and data assimilation framework and can be used as an

Acid precipitation; an annotated bibliography

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Wiltshire, Denise A.; Evans, Margaret L.

1984-01-01

This collection of 1660 bibliographies references on the causes and environmental effects of acidic atmospheric deposition was compiled from computerized literature searches of earth-science and chemistry data bases. Categories of information are (1) atmospheric chemistry (gases and aerosols), (2) precipitation chemistry, (3) transport and deposition (wet and dry), (4) aquatic environments (biological and hydrological), (5) terrestrial environments, (6) effects on materials and structures, (7) air and precipitation monitoring and data collection, and (8) modeling studies. References date from the late 1800 's through December 1981. The bibliography includes short summaries of most documents. Omitted are unpublished manuscripts, publications in press, master 's theses and doctoral dissertations, newspaper articles, and book reviews. Coauthors and subject indexes are included. (USGS)

Lessons learned from oxygen isotopes in modern precipitation applied to interpretation of speleothem records of paleoclimate from eastern Asia

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Dayem, Katherine E.; Molnar, Peter; Battisti, David S.; Roe, Gerard H.

2010-06-01

Variability in oxygen isotope ratios collected from speleothems in Chinese caves is often interpreted as a proxy for variability of precipitation, summer precipitation, seasonality of precipitation, and/or the proportion of 18O to 16O of annual total rainfall that is related to a strengthening or weakening of the East Asian monsoon and, in some cases, to the Indian monsoon. We use modern reanalysis and station data to test whether precipitation and temperature variability over China can be related to changes in climate in these distant locales. We find that annual and rainy season precipitation totals in each of central China, south China, and east India have correlation length scales of ∼ 500 km, shorter than the distance between many speleothem records that share similar long-term time variations in δ18O values. Thus the short distances of correlation do not support, though by themselves cannot refute, the idea that apparently synchronous variations in δ18O values at widely spaced (> 500 km) caves in China are due to variations in annual precipitation amounts. We also evaluate connections between climate variables and δ18O values using available instrumental measurements of δ18O values in precipitation. These data, from stations in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), show that monthly δ18O values generally do not correlate well with either local precipitation amount or local temperature, and the degree to which monthly δ18O values do correlate with them varies from station to station. For the few locations that do show significant correlations between δ18O values and precipitation amount, we estimate the differences in precipitation amount that would be required to account for peak-to-peak differences in δ18O values in the speleothems from Hulu and Dongge caves, assuming that δ18O scales with the monthly amount of precipitation or with seasonal differences in precipitation. Insofar as the present-day relationship between δ18O

Separation of Yttrium from Rare Earth Concentrates in Fractional Hydroxide Precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tri Handini; Purwoto; Mulyono

2007-01-01

Yttrium has been separated from rare earth concentrates by precipitation in fractional hydroxide using urea. The purpose of this research is to increase the yttrium rate resulting from the sedimentary process through separation of yttrium from other rare earth in fractional hydroxide precipitation using urea. In this research, we study the process variable of the concentration of urea, the ratio of feed volume to condensation volume of urea, as well as the temperature. Determination analysis of the rare earth rate is conducted using an X-ray spectrometer. The best result Y=92.89 % is obtained at a concentration of urea of 50 %, a level of precipitation of 3 times, and a temperature of 80°C. (author)

Optimization of precipitation conditions of thorium oxalate precipitate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pazukhin, Eh.M.; Smirnova, E.A.; Krivokhatskij, A.S.; Pazukhina, Yu.L.; Kiselev, P.P.

1986-01-01

Thorium precipitation in the form of difficultly soluble oxalate has been investigated. The equation binding the concentration of metal with the nitric acid in the initial solution and quantity of a precipitator necessary for minimization of desired product losses is derived. The graphical solution of this equation for a case, when the oxalic acid with 0.78 mol/l concentration is the precipitator, is presented

Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part III: Interannual variability

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Shmakin, A.B.; Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

2002-01-01

The Land Dynamics (LaD) model is tested by comparison with observations of interannual variations in discharge from 44 large river basins for which relatively accurate time series of monthly precipitation (a primary model input) have recently been computed. When results are pooled across all basins, the model explains 67% of the interannual variance of annual runoff ratio anomalies (i.e., anomalies of annual discharge volume, normalized by long-term mean precipitation volume). The new estimates of basin precipitation appear to offer an improvement over those from a state-of-the-art analysis of global precipitation (the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation, CMAP), judging from comparisons of parallel model runs and of analyses of precipitation-discharge correlations. When the new precipitation estimates are used, the performance of the LaD model is comparable to, but not significantly better than, that of a simple, semiempirical water-balance relation that uses only annual totals of surface net radiation and precipitation. This implies that the LaD simulations of interannual runoff variability do not benefit substantially from information on geographical variability of land parameters or seasonal structure of interannual variability of precipitation. The aforementioned analyses necessitated the development of a method for downscaling of long-term monthly precipitation data to the relatively short timescales necessary for running the model. The method merges the long-term data with a reference dataset of 1-yr duration, having high temporal resolution. The success of the method, for the model and data considered here, was demonstrated in a series of model-model comparisons and in the comparisons of modeled and observed interannual variations of basin discharge.

Role of mixed precipitating cloud systems on the typhoon rainfall

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. J. Pan

2010-01-01

Full Text Available L-band wind profiler data are utilized to diagnose the vertical structure of the typhoon precipitating cloud systems in Taiwan. For several typhoons, a pronounced bright band (BB around 5 km is commonly observed from the observation. Since strong convection within typhoon circulation may disturb and/or disrupt the melting layer, the BB shall not appear persistently. Hence, an understanding of the vertical structure of the BB region is important because it holds extensive hydrometeors information on the type of precipitation and its variability. Wind profiler observational results suggest that the mixture of convective and stratiform (embedded type clouds are mostly associated with typhoons. In the case of one typhoon, BB is appeared around 5.5 km with embedded precipitation and also BB height of 1 km higher than ordinary showery precipitation. This is evident from the long-term observations of wind profiler and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. The Doppler velocity profiles show hydrometers (ice/snow at 6 km but liquid below 5 km for typhoons and 4 km for showery precipitation. In the BB region the melting particles accelerations of 5.8 ms−1 km−1 and 3.2 ms−1 km−1 are observed for typhoon and showery precipitation, respectively.

Climate dynamics of South America during summer: Connections between the large-scale circulation and regional precipitation

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Lenters, Johh Derick

1997-05-01

Relationships between the large-scale circulation and regional precipitation over South America during austral summer are examined using a GCM, linear model, and observational analyses. Emphasis is placed on understanding the origin of upper-tropospheric circulation features such as the Bolivian high and its effects on South American precipitation variability, particularly on the Central Andean Altiplano. Results from the linear model indicate that the Bolivian high and 'Nordeste low' are generated in response to precipitation over the Amazon basin, Central Andes, and South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ), with African precipitation also playing a crucial role in the formation of the low. The direct mechanical and sensible heating effects of the Andes are minimal, acting only to induce a weak lee trough in midlatitudes and a shallow monsoonal circulation over the Central Andes. In the GCM the effects of the Andes include a strengthening of the Bolivian high and northward shift of the Nordeste low, primarily through changes in the precipitation field. The position of the Bolivian high is primarily determined by Amazonian precipitation and is little affected by the removal of the Andes. Strong subsidence to the west of the high is found to be important for the maintenance of the high's warm core, while large-scale convective overshooting to the east is responsible for a layer of cold air above the high. Observations from eight summer seasons reveal a close relationship between precipitation variability in the Central Andes and the position and intensity of the Bolivian high. The physical mechanisms of this connection are explored using composite, EOF, and correlation techniques. On intraseasonal to interannual timescales, rainy episodes on the Altiplano are found to be associated with warm, moist, poleward flow along the eastern flank of the Andes, often in conjunction with extratropical disturbances and a westward displacement of the SACZ. Corresponding to this

Environmental controls on stable isotopes of precipitation in Lanzhou, China: An enhanced network at city scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Fenli; Zhang, Mingjun; Wang, Shengjie; Qiu, Xue; Du, Mingxia

2017-12-31

Stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in precipitation are very sensitive to environmental changes, and can record evolution of water cycle. The Lanzhou city in northwestern China is jointly influenced by the monsoon and westerlies, which is considered as a vital platform to investigate the moisture regime for this region. Since 2011, an observation network of stable isotopes in precipitation was established across the city, and four stations were included in the network. In 2013, six more sampling stations were added, and the enhanced network might provide more meaningful information on spatial incoherence and synoptic process. This study focused on the variations of stable isotopes (δ 18 O and δD) in precipitation and the environmental controls based on the 1432 samples in this enhanced network from April 2011 to October 2014. The results showed that the precipitation isotopes had great spatial diversity, and the neighboring stations may present large difference in δD and δ 18 O. Based on the observation at ten sampling sites, an isoscape in precipitation was calculated, and the method is useful to produce isoscape for small domains. The temperature effect and amount effect was reconsidered based on the dataset. Taking meteorological parameters (temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, water vapor pressure and dew point temperature) as variables in a multi-linear regression, the result of coefficients for these meteorological parameters were calculated. Some cases were also involved in this study, and the isotopic characteristics during one event or continuous days were used to understand the environmental controls on precipitation isotopes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trajectories of grassland ecosystem change in response to experimental manipulations of precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Knapp, Alan; Smith, Melinda; Collins, Scott; Blair, John; Briggs, John

2010-05-01

Understanding and predicting the dynamics of ecological systems has always been central to Ecology. Today, ecologists recognize that in addition to natural and human-caused disturbances, a fundamentally different type of ecosystem change is being driven by the combined and cumulative effects of anthropogenic activities affecting earth's climate and biogeochemical cycles. This type of change is historically unprecedented in magnitude, and as a consequence, such alterations are leading to trajectories of change in ecological responses that differ radically from those observed in the past. Through both short- and long-term experiments, we have been trying to better understand the mechanisms and consequences of ecological change in grassland ecosystems likely to result from changes in precipitation regimes. We have manipulated a key resource for most grasslands (water) and modulators of water availability (temperature) in field experiments that vary from 1-17 years in duration, and used even longer-term monitoring data from the Konza Prairie LTER program to assess how grassland communities and ecosystems will respond to changes in water availability. Trajectories of change in aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in sites subjected to 17 years of soil water augmentation were strongly non-linear with a marked increase in the stimulation of ANPP after year 8 (from 25% to 65%). Lags in alterations in grassland community composition are posited to be responsible for the form of this trajectory of change. In contrast, responses in ANPP to chronic increases in soil moisture variability appear to have decreased over a 10-yr period of manipulation, although the net effects of more variable precipitation inputs were to reduce ANPP, alter the genetic structure of the dominant grass species, increase soil nitrogen availability and reduce soil respiration. The loss of sensitivity to increased resource variability was not reflected in adjacent plots where precipitation was