WorldWideScience

Sample records for urban population growth

  1. Migration, urban population growth and regional disparity in China

    OpenAIRE

    Renard, Mary-Françoise; Xu, Zelai; Zhu, Nong

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to study the determinants of city population growth in China during the 1990s', as well as the determinants of migrations towards cities, which constitutes the main source of urban population growth in this period. A second objective is to identify regional differences in the urban growth and migrations, that is, whether urban growth and migration patterns are different between coastal and inland provinces. Additionally, we are interested in the differences...

  2. Urban Ecology: Patterns of Population Growth and Ecological Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne C. Zipperer; Steward T.A. Pickett

    2012-01-01

    Currently, over 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, this estimate is expected to be 70%. This urban growth, however, is not uniformly distributed around the world. The majority of it will occur in developing nations and create megacities whose populations exceed at least 10 million people. Not all urban areas, however, are growing. Some are...

  3. Urban population and economic growth: South Asia perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandip Sarker

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Previously economic growth was generally discussed in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI, educational growth, savings, investments, inflation as well as trade openness of a nation. Very recently it has been identified that population is one of the major determinants of economic growth of a nation. In the recent years, the study of urbanization has gained a matter of concern in developing countries as it has been recognized as part of a larger process of economic development which is affecting developing countries. South Asian countries are one of the emerging economics and growing at a faster rate over the past few years. At the same time, population of South Asia is growing at a significant rate. Therefore the study has attempted to identify the causal relationship between urban population and economic growth in South Asia using a panel data analysis. The study makes use of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF and Phillips-Perron (PP, Pesaran as well as Fisher methods for panel unit root test. The panel Pedroni cointegration test suggests that there is long run relationship between the variables. The further panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM suggests that there is long run causality running from urban population growth to economic growth in South Asia. The study concludes that the growth of urban population can have significant impact on economic growth in South Asia in the long run.

  4. Population growth, urban expansion, and private forestry in western Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey D. Kline; David L. Azuma; Ralph J. Alig

    2004-01-01

    Private forestlands in the United States face increasing pressures from growing populations, resulting in greater numbers of people living in closer proximity to forests. What often is called the "wildland/urban interface" is characterized by expansion of residential and other developed land uses onto forested landscapes in a manner that threatens forestlands...

  5. Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costa da Silva, Diego Firmino; Elhorst, J. Paul; Silveira Neto, Raul da Mota

    2017-01-01

    Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities. Regional Studies. Using Bayesian posterior model probabilities and data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian minimum comparable areas (MCAs) over the period 1970-2010, two theoretical settings of population growth dynamics resulting in

  6. Dynamics of urban population growth in Nigeria: The role of repeated migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adepoju, A

    1976-02-01

    The paper examines the direct contribution of migration to the growth of the urban population both in terms of its mobility and stability components with special reference to Western Nigeria. The basis of the paper is a survey of urban migration conducted by the author in 1971-1972; the findings are supplemented where necessary by the 1952-1953 and 1963 census figures. Migration is a major factor in the growth of the urban population. The direct contribution by migrants to such growth can be traced to the following groups: the initial streams of migrants, the follow-up migrants and the potentially mobile migrants attracted from the migrants' communities of origin to the towns. Repeated migration by some migrants, particularly the young, the educated and the white collar-workers, are also major factors in the urban population growth. Such repeated migrations are predominantly urban to urban or turnover moves. The high mobility rate among a group of migrants tends to conceal the relative stability among the migrant population as a whole. Repeated migrants usually stay between 3 and 5 years at each destination, before moving on. A substantial proportion of migrants, mainly farmers, the less educated and the old, are relatively stable in the survey towns (Ife and Oshogho). The urban residence ration indices also indicate an increase in the rate of immigration, mainly of young persons, to the towns. The youthful age structure, the age selectivity in migration and the marital status of the young migrants tend to exacerbate the masculinity in the form of unbalanced sex ratio prevailing in most urban centers. The urban population is unlikely to be stable. The tendency for old migrants of rural origin to return to their villages at the end of their migration career and for contemporary migrants to consist predominantly of youths, will for the next generation or 2 lead to a young and unstable urban population.

  7. Analysis of Urban Growth in Edwardsville Illinois Using Remote Sensing and Population Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onuoha, Hilda U.

    Rapid urbanization is one of the many critical, global issues. This very significant social and economic phenomenon has brought about much debate in the past twenty years and has become a very important policy issue. Understanding its dynamics and patterns is important to develop appropriate policies and make more informed planning decisions. Many dimensions to the urban land growth have been identified in related literature including drivers, relationship with other factors like population, impacts, and methods of measurement. In this study, urban growth in the Edwardsville area (composed of Edwardsville and Glen Carbon, Illinois) is analyzed spatio-temporally using remote sensing and population change from 1990 to 2015. The objectives of this study are (a) identifying the major land use changes in the Edwardsville area from 1990 to 2015, (b) analyzing the rate of urban growth and its relationship to population change in the area from 1990 to 2015, (c) identifying the general pattern and direction of urban growth in the study area. Using multi-temporal satellite images to classify and derive changes in land cover classes during the study period, results showed that the land cover classes with major changes are the urban/built-up land and agricultural/grassland, with a steady increase in the former and steady decrease in the later. Results also show the highest rate of increase in urban land was between 2000 and 2010. In comparison to population, the both show increase over the study years but urban land shows a higher rate of increase indicating dispersion. To analyze urban growth pattern in the area, the study area was divided into three zones: NE, SE, and W. The SE zone showed the highest amount of the growth and from the results, the infill type of growth was inferred.

  8. Population growth and rural-urban migration, with special reference to Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Graft-johnson, K T

    1974-01-01

    but that once people decide to migrate, they base their choice of destination primarily on economic opportunities available at that end. Distance bears little relationship to choice of destination. To stem this tide efforts need to be made to increase rural income, provide employment opportunities for those displaced as agriculture becomes more efficient, and to provide for greater amenities in rural areas. Urban unemployment is an ever-increasing problem, accentuated by population growth and migration. Intensive rural development is needed to reverse this trend.

  9. Population, migration and urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-06-01

    Despite recent estimates that natural increase is becoming a more important component of urban growth than rural urban transfer (excess of inmigrants over outmigrants), the share of migration in the total population growth has been consistently increasing in both developed and developing countries. From a demographic perspective, the migration process involves 3 elements: an area of origin which the mover leaves and where he or she is considered an outmigrant; the destination or place of inmigration; and the period over which migration is measured. The 2 basic types of migration are internal and international. Internal migration consists of rural to urban migration, urban to urban migration, rural to rural migration, and urban to rural migration. Among these 4 types of migration various patterns or processes are followed. Migration may be direct when the migrant moves directly from the village to the city and stays there permanently. It can be circular migration, meaning that the migrant moves to the city when it is not planting season and returns to the village when he is needed on the farm. In stage migration the migrant makes a series of moves, each to a city closer to the largest or fastest growing city. Temporary migration may be 1 time or cyclical. The most dominant pattern of internal migration is rural urban. The contribution of migration to urbanization is evident. For example, the rapid urbanization and increase in urban growth from 1960-70 in the Republic of Korea can be attributed to net migration. In Asia the largest component of the population movement consists of individuals and groups moving from 1 rural location to another. Recently, because urban centers could no longer absorb the growing number of migrants from other places, there has been increased interest in the urban to rural population redistribution. This reverse migration also has come about due to slower rates of employment growth in the urban centers and improved economic opportunities

  10. Urban growth management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Gertrud; Alexander Sick Nielsen, Thomas; Grünfelder, Julien

    2011-01-01

    , and finally urban attractivity policies. Effective regional bodies are needed to deal with urban expansion and peri-urbanisation at a relevant scale; European rural and agricultural policies makes up the main ‘policy complex’ targeting the non-urban area including its land uses; while lastly leverage of urban...... urban growth and curb urban sprawl in a wider sense. Methodology The main methodology of the paper is a desk-research based review of policy options supplemented with field study and interviews in selected cased study regions. This paper consists of two parts. The first part is based on literature...... there are contradictions in the evidence presented in the literature, we believe that it may be safely said that urban growth management policies have an influence on urban growth under certain preconditions including: sufficient time for implementation and continuity of efforts; choice of appropriate policy measures...

  11. Capital, population and urban patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, W

    1994-04-01

    The author develops an approach to urban dynamics with endogenous capital and population growth, synthesizing the Alonso location model, the two-sector neoclassical growth model, and endogenous population theory. A dynamic model for an isolated island economy with endogenous capital, population, and residential structure is developed on the basis of Alonso's residential model and the two-sector neoclassical growth model. The model describes the interdependence between residential structure, economic growth, population growth, and economic structure over time and space. It has a unique long-run equilibrium, which may be either stable or unstable, depending upon the population dynamics. Applying the Hopf theorem, the author also shows that when the system is unstable, the economic geography exhibits permanent endogenous oscillations.

  12. A study on the causal effect of urban population growth and international trade on environmental pollution: evidence from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boamah, Kofi Baah; Du, Jianguo; Boamah, Angela Jacinta; Appiah, Kingsley

    2018-02-01

    This study seeks to contribute to the recent literature by empirically investigating the causal effect of urban population growth and international trade on environmental pollution of China, for the period 1980-2014. The Johansen cointegration confirmed a long-run cointegration association among the utilised variables for the case of China. The direction of causality among the variables was, consequently, investigated using the recent bootstrapped Granger causality test. This bootstrapped Granger causality approach is preferred as it provides robust and accurate critical values for statistical inferences. The findings from the causality analysis revealed the existence of a bi-directional causality between import and urban population. The three most paramount variables that explain the environmental pollution in China, according to the impulse response function, are imports, urbanisation and energy consumption. Our study further established the presence of an N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution of China. Hence, our study recommends that China should adhere to stricter environmental regulations in international trade, as well as enforce policies that promote energy efficiency in the urban residential and commercial sector, in the quest to mitigate environmental pollution issues as the economy advances.

  13. Urban Health and Welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa: Population Growth, Urbanisation, Water/Sanitation Services, Slumisation and Poverty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RICHARD INGWE

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Spatio-temporal analysis was applied on data representing urbanisation, slumisation, poverty, safe water/ sanitation in urban sub-Saharan Africa (SSA. The findings include: rapid rates of national population growth and urbanisation throughout SSA from 1980 to 2005, averaging 93.8% (range: 90.5% points, lowest and highest rates being 40% (Lesotho and 130.5% (Niger, respectively; high national poverty rates, widespread in SSA: (>50% in about seven countries; it might have been similar in more countries if a large number of SSA countries had reported their 1993 poverty rates; high urban/rural poverty ratios (1.05-1.79 points range between Nigeria and Benin Republics. High average rate (73% of slumisation in SSA in 2001 (range: 96%, lowest and highest rates being in Zimbabwe (3% and Chad/Ethiopia (99%, respectively. SSA’s 2000 health adjusted life expectancy was generally low: 38.8 years (<40 years in 24 countries. Use of safe/improved water/sanitation services were poor almost throughout SSA: declined rapidly and ubiquitously from 72% (2000 to 55% (2002, minus 17% points decrease in three years within individual countries with alarming declines up to minus 69% points in Guinea. The policy implications of the findings include the urgent and imperative need to massively implement urban improvement programmes designed to provide health-inducing services/facilities across SSA.

  14. Modeling urban fire growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterman, T.E.; Takata, A.N.

    1983-01-01

    The IITRI Urban Fire Spread Model as well as others of similar vintage were constrained by computer size and running costs such that many approximations/generalizations were introduced to reduce program complexity and data storage requirements. Simplifications were introduced both in input data and in fire growth and spread calculations. Modern computational capabilities offer the means to introduce greater detail and to examine its practical significance on urban fire predictions. Selected portions of the model are described as presently configured, and potential modifications are discussed. A single tract model is hypothesized which permits the importance of various model details to be assessed, and, other model applications are identified

  15. Simulating Population Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byington, Scott

    1997-01-01

    Presents a strategy to help students grasp the important implications of population growth. Involves an interactive demonstration that allows students to experience exponential and logistic population growth followed by a discussion of the implications of population-growth principles. (JRH)

  16. Modelling the impact of sanitation, population growth and urbanization on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters—a case study for Bangladesh and India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, L.C.; Kraker, Dummy; Hofstra, N.; Kroeze, C.; Medema, G.J.

    2015-01-01

    Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a

  17. Modelling the impact of sanitation, population growth and urbanization on human emissions of cryptosporidium to surface waters : A case study for Bangladesh and India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, L.C.; Kraker, J.; Hofstra, N.; Kroeze, C.; Medema, G.

    2015-01-01

    Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a

  18. Modelling the impact of sanitation, population growth and urbanization on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters—a case study for Bangladesh and India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Lucie C.; de Kraker, Jelske; Hofstra, Nynke; Kroeze, Carolien; Medema, Gertjan

    2015-09-01

    Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a global model by Hofstra et al (2013 Sci. Total Environ. 442 10-9) and zoom into Bangladesh and India as illustrative case studies. The model is most sensitive to changes in oocyst excretion and infection rate, and to assumptions on the share of faeces reaching the surface water for different sanitation types. We find urban centres to be hotspots of human Cryptosporidium emissions. We estimate that 53% (Bangladesh) and 91% (India) of total emissions come from urban areas. 50% of oocysts come from only 8% (Bangladesh) and 3% (India) of the country area. In the future, population growth and urbanization may further deteriorate water quality in Bangladesh and India, despite improved sanitation. Under our ‘business as usual’ (‘sanitation improvements’) scenario, oocyst emissions will increase by a factor 2.0 (1.2) for India and 2.9 (1.1) for Bangladesh between 2010 and 2050. Population growth, urbanization and sanitation development are important processes to consider for large scale water quality modelling.

  19. Progress towards the child mortality millennium development goal in urban sub-Saharan Africa: the dynamics of population growth, immunization, and access to clean water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotso, Jean-Christophe; Ezeh, Alex Chika; Madise, Nyovani Janet; Ciera, James

    2007-08-28

    Improvements in child survival have been very poor in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Since the 1990 s, declines in child mortality have reversed in many countries in the region, while in others, they have either slowed or stalled, making it improbable that the target of reducing child mortality by two thirds by 2015 will be reached. This paper highlights the implications of urban population growth and access to health and social services on progress in achieving MDG 4. Specifically, it examines trends in childhood mortality in SSA in relation to urban population growth, vaccination coverage and access to safe drinking water. Correlation methods are used to analyze national-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and from the United Nations. The analysis is complemented by case studies on intra-urban health differences in Kenya and Zambia. Only five of the 22 countries included in the study have recorded declines in urban child mortality that are in line with the MDG target of about 4% per year; five others have recorded an increase; and the 12 remaining countries witnessed only minimal decline. More rapid rate of urban population growth is associated with negative trend in access to safe drinking water and in vaccination coverage, and ultimately to increasing or timid declines in child mortality. There is evidence of intra-urban disparities in child health in some countries like Kenya and Zambia. Failing to appropriately target the growing sub-group of the urban poor and improve their living conditions and health status - which is an MDG target itself - may result in lack of improvement on national indicators of health. Sustained expansion of potable water supplies and vaccination coverage among the disadvantaged urban dwellers should be given priority in the efforts to achieve the child mortality MDG in SSA.

  20. Progress towards the child mortality millennium development goal in urban sub-Saharan Africa: the dynamics of population growth, immunization, and access to clean water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madise Nyovani

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Improvements in child survival have been very poor in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA. Since the 1990s, declines in child mortality have reversed in many countries in the region, while in others, they have either slowed or stalled, making it improbable that the target of reducing child mortality by two thirds by 2015 will be reached. This paper highlights the implications of urban population growth and access to health and social services on progress in achieving MDG 4. Specifically, it examines trends in childhood mortality in SSA in relation to urban population growth, vaccination coverage and access to safe drinking water. Methods Correlation methods are used to analyze national-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and from the United Nations. The analysis is complemented by case studies on intra-urban health differences in Kenya and Zambia. Results Only five of the 22 countries included in the study have recorded declines in urban child mortality that are in line with the MDG target of about 4% per year; five others have recorded an increase; and the 12 remaining countries witnessed only minimal decline. More rapid rate of urban population growth is associated with negative trend in access to safe drinking water and in vaccination coverage, and ultimately to increasing or timid declines in child mortality. There is evidence of intra-urban disparities in child health in some countries like Kenya and Zambia. Conclusion Failing to appropriately target the growing sub-group of the urban poor and improve their living conditions and health status – which is an MDG target itself – may result in lack of improvement on national indicators of health. Sustained expansion of potable water supplies and vaccination coverage among the disadvantaged urban dwellers should be given priority in the efforts to achieve the child mortality MDG in SSA.

  1. Urban Growth and Transportation

    OpenAIRE

    Gilles Duranton; Matthew A. Turner

    2012-01-01

    We estimate the effects of major roads and public transit on the growth of major cities in the US between 1980 and 2000. We find that a 10% increase in a city’s stock of roads causes about a 2% increase in its population and employment and a small decrease in its share of poor households over this 20 year period. We also find that a 10% increase in a city’s stock of large buses causes about a 0.8% population increase and a small increase in the share of poor households over this period. To es...

  2. City Population Growth and Economic Growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Freire-Gibb, L. Carlos

    2008-01-01

    This article looks at the relationship between city population growth (intimately related to population proximity), and economic development. The hypothesis is that wherever dynamic and inclusive networks exist, there are more opportunities for economic development in this place. When these types...... of networks choose a tool (project, policy) to implement in the city, success will be more likely. Furthermore, virtuous circles will arise. The author gives an overview of two historical cases in urban growth, in Europe (1200-1800) and the U.S.A. (1800 to today)....

  3. Population growth and economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayana, D L

    1984-01-01

    This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize

  4. The effects of urban growth on dengue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Aurélio Pereira Horta

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue in Coronel Fabriciano, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, and to associate cases to the growth of urban areas and loss of natural areas in recent years. Methods: This is a descriptive, exploratory study, with a quantitative approach. Dengue cases of 2009 were obtained from the Health Municipal Secretariat, including the suspected and confirmed cases. Shape files were obtained, containing information about the municipal boundary, boundary of the urban area, census tracts, areas with buildings and natural areas. Based on the distribution of dengue cases, the Kernel estimator was used to measure data dispersion. Results: Dengue cases reported were georeferenced in GIS (Geographic Information System environment. The landscape showed changes in the units of urban area and pasture, as an urban growth over the pasture matrix. No changes were observed in the areas of remaining forest and eucalyptus. There are cases spatially spread with a tendency to form clusters. Conclusion: Cases of dengue were observed spatially clustered in the northern region of the city, where new neighborhoods have emerged in recent years, following the population growth without proper structure of urbanization and urban planning. In addition, urban growth have reduced the margin of watercourses providing a bare soil, suitable for accumulation of trash and formation of breeding sites for mosquitoes. Efficient public policies and appropriate urban planning might reduce the impact of dengue in endemic regions. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5020/18061230.2013.p539

  5. Monitoring urban growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller-Jensen, Lasse; Kofie, Richard; Yankson, Paul

    2007-01-01

    The extent of the urbanized areas of Accra is assessed from Landsat-TM satellite images for the year 2002 and compared to similar information for the years 1985 and 1991. A texture-based classification method is applied. The results show that the urbanization of the fringe areas of Accra is occur......The extent of the urbanized areas of Accra is assessed from Landsat-TM satellite images for the year 2002 and compared to similar information for the years 1985 and 1991. A texture-based classification method is applied. The results show that the urbanization of the fringe areas of Accra...

  6. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  7. Population development in Ljubljana urban region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejan Rebernik

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the main characteristic of population development and urbanisation processes in Ljubljana and Ljubljana urban region. Up to the end of the seventies fast population growth was a consequence of strong immigration from rural parts of Slovenia and the rest of Yugoslavia. In the eighties and nineties deconcentration of population within the region with intense suburbanisation and depopulation of inner city and older residential neighbourhoods were the main urbanisation processes. In the second half of the nineties the highest population growth was recorded in dispersed rural settlements in the periphery of the region. In some parts of the inner city reurbanisation and gentrification occurred.

  8. Urban tree growth modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    E. Gregory McPherson; Paula J. Peper

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes three long-term tree growth studies conducted to evaluate tree performance because repeated measurements of the same trees produce critical data for growth model calibration and validation. Several empirical and process-based approaches to modeling tree growth are reviewed. Modeling is more advanced in the fields of forestry and...

  9. Modeling Urban Spatial Growth in Mountainous Regions of Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoping Huang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The scale and speed of urbanization in the mountainous regions of western China have received little attention from researchers. These cities are facing rapid population growth and severe environmental degradation. This study analyzed historical urban growth trends in this mountainous region to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth pattern and the mountainous topography. Three major factors—slope, accessibility, and land use type—were studied in light of their relationships with urban spatial growth. With the analysis of historical data as the basis, a conceptual urban spatial growth model was devised. In this model, slope, accessibility, and land use type together create resistance to urban growth, while accessibility controls the sequence of urban development. The model was tested and evaluated using historical data. It serves as a potential tool for planners to envision and assess future urban growth scenarios and their potential environmental impacts to make informed decisions.

  10. Hispanic Population Growth and Rural Income Inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrado, Emilio A.; Kandel, William A.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the relationship between Hispanic population growth and changes in U.S. rural income inequality from 1990 through 2000. Applying comparative approaches used for urban areas we disentangle Hispanic population growth's contribution to inequality by comparing and statistically modeling changes in the family income Gini coefficient across…

  11. Sustainable urban growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraud, Pierre-Noel

    2011-01-01

    The principal messages from Energy and urban innovation are presented. This report by the World Energy Council has examined the challenges related to energy in big cities (in particular 'mega-cities'), the policies that are being or could be implemented, and the role of firms in this implementation. Considerable progress can be made by using existing techniques. The main difficulty has to do with diffusing them. There is a need for organizational and institutional innovations that will stimulate players, coordinate their actions and speed up the tempo of change

  12. Rapid population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1972-01-01

    At the current rate of population growth, world population by 2000 is expected to reach 7 billion or more, with developing countries accounting for some 5.4 billion, and economically advanced nations accounting for 1.6 billion. 'Population explosion' is the result of falling mortality rates and continuing high birth rates. Many European countries, and Japan, have already completed what is termed as demographic transition, that is, birth rates have fallen to below 20 births per 1000 population, death rates to 10/1000 population, and annual growth rates are 1% or less; annual growth rates for less developed countries ranged from 2 to 3.5%. Less developed countries can be divided into 3 groups: 1) countries with both high birth and death rates; 2) countries with high birth rates and low death rates; and 3) countries with intermediate and declining birth rates and low death rates. Rapid population growth has serious economic consequences. It encourages inequities in income distribution; it limits rate of growth of gross national product by holding down level of savings and capital investments; it exerts pressure on agricultural production and land; and it creates unemployment problems. In addition, the quality of education for increasing number of chidren is adversely affected, as high proportions of children reduce the amount that can be spent for the education of each child out of the educational budget; the cost and adequacy of health and welfare services are affected in a similar way. Other serious consequences of rapid population growth are maternal death and illness, and physical and mental retardation of children of very poor families. It is very urgent that over a billion births be prevented in the next 30 years to reduce annual population growth rate from the current 2% to 1% per year.

  13. Population growth and consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalkley, K

    1997-04-01

    The relationship between population growth, resource consumption, and environmental degradation is complex. The rise in "greenhouse gases" that will cause climatic change is clearly due to human activity, and pollutants are often concentrated in densely populated areas. However, even an area with a negative population growth, such as Russia, can experience severe environmental degradation due to poor management. Consumption patterns have the most effect on ozone depletion, while population growth threatens biodiversity of and within species through the destruction of ecosystems. Migration joins population growth and social factors, such as land inequality, as major causes of deforestation, and global demand for water is expected to increase faster than the rate of population growth. Coastal development and over-fishing threaten to deplete the oceans, while soil quality is threatened by inappropriate land use. Estimates of the earth's carrying capacity range from less than 3 billion to more than 44 billion people, indicating how difficult it is to assess this figure. Development efforts throughout the world may lead to human gains that will ultimately be negated by environmental losses. These factors have led to growing support for environmentally sustainable development.

  14. Introduction: population migration and urbanization in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kojima, R

    1996-12-01

    This introductory article discusses the correlation between migration and rapid urbanization and growth in the largest cities of the developing world. The topics include the characteristics of urbanization, government policies toward population migration, the change in absolute size of the rural population, and the problems of maintaining megacities. Other articles in this special issue are devoted to urbanization patterns in China, South Africa, Iran, Korea and Taiwan as newly industrialized economies (NIEs), informal sectors in the Philippines and Thailand, and low-income settlements in Bogota, Colombia, and India. It is argued that increased urbanization is produced by natural population growth, the expansion of the urban administrative area, and the in-migration from rural areas. A comparison of urbanization rates of countries by per capita gross national product (GNP) reveals that countries with per capita GNP of under US$2000 have urbanization rates of 10-60%. Rates are under 30% in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, China, and Indonesia. Rapid urbanization appears to follow the economic growth curve. The rate of urbanization in Latin America is high enough to be comparable to urbanization in Europe and the US. Taiwan and Korea have high rates of urbanization that surpass the rate of industrialization. Thailand and Malaysia have low rates of urbanization compared to the size of their per capita GNP. Urbanization rates under 20% occur in countries without economic development. Rates between 20% and 50% occur in countries with or without industrialization. East Asian urbanization is progressing along with industrialization. Africa and the Middle East have urbanization without industrialization. In 1990 there were 20 developing countries and 5 developed countries with populations over 5 million. In 10 of 87 developing countries rural population declined in absolute size. The author identifies and discusses four patterns of urban growth.

  15. Thermodynamics of urban population flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernando, A; Plastino, A

    2012-12-01

    Orderliness, reflected via mathematical laws, is encountered in different frameworks involving social groups. Here we show that a thermodynamics can be constructed that macroscopically describes urban population flows. Microscopic dynamic equations and simulations with random walkers underlie the macroscopic approach. Our results might be regarded, via suitable analogies, as a step towards building an explicit social thermodynamics.

  16. Perspectives on population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-09-01

    Assume that everyone has the same information on population growth. There are many different opinions on what that information means and what should be done about it. Some people worry about current rates of growth, especially in the context of growing per capita consumption, and believe that all reasonable steps should be taken to reduce rates and stabilize population size. Others believe that growing populations can be accommodated by reducing consumption in rich countries, that technological progress will supply the new resources needed, that the development needed to support a larger population can be sustained, that large population size fosters prosperity, or that birth rates are falling and current growth is just temporary. These are all valid positions worthy of at least debate. Interest groups commonly acknowledgement population growth as a significant issue, but offer no response to it. Sometimes the issue goes unrecognized because it conflicts with a more highly valued personal agenda item. Finally, some responses come from confusion and anger rather than reasoning or self-interest. The proponents of these latter arguments bring nothing constructive to the debate.

  17. Do motorways shape urban growth?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick; Hovgesen, Henrik Harder

    2005-01-01

    results suggest that the motorway most markedly influences the location of non-residential building activities within the city – in favour of locations near the entrance points to/from the motorway network. The development can be explained in part by municipal planning, which in some instances has opened......The paper is an offspring from the Research project Town, Road and Landscape that aims to assess the effect of the Danish motorway network (specifically the last 20 years) on urban growth and interaction patterns. As one of the main interests of the project is the changing urban form...... and the changing character of the roadscape, the impact of the motorway is in part analysed with micro level data, spatial statistics and GIS – to allowing mapping of changing development trends in motorway corridors. The paper presents analysis of the impact of motorway openings on urban form in two Danish...

  18. Projected Regional Climate in 2025 Due to Urban Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Messen, Dmitry

    2005-01-01

    By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent.

  19. Is Urban Economic Growth Inclusive in India?

    OpenAIRE

    Tripathi, Sabyasachi

    2013-01-01

    This paper measures the overall inclusive growth of a city by considering changing trends in the key economic variables based on ‘Borda ranking’ and establishes a relationship between city economic growth and overall city inclusive growth. By using data of 52 large cities in India, this paper finds that higher urban economic growth is associated with an increase in urban inequality, a reduction in urban poverty, and a lower level of overall inclusive growth of a city.

  20. Estimating changes in urban land and urban population using refined areal interpolation techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoraghein, Hamidreza; Leyk, Stefan

    2018-05-01

    The analysis of changes in urban land and population is important because the majority of future population growth will take place in urban areas. U.S. Census historically classifies urban land using population density and various land-use criteria. This study analyzes the reliability of census-defined urban lands for delineating the spatial distribution of urban population and estimating its changes over time. To overcome the problem of incompatible enumeration units between censuses, regular areal interpolation methods including Areal Weighting (AW) and Target Density Weighting (TDW), with and without spatial refinement, are implemented. The goal in this study is to estimate urban population in Massachusetts in 1990 and 2000 (source zones), within tract boundaries of the 2010 census (target zones), respectively, to create a consistent time series of comparable urban population estimates from 1990 to 2010. Spatial refinement is done using ancillary variables such as census-defined urban areas, the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) as well as different combinations of them. The study results suggest that census-defined urban areas alone are not necessarily the most meaningful delineation of urban land. Instead, it appears that alternative combinations of the above-mentioned ancillary variables can better depict the spatial distribution of urban land, and thus make it possible to reduce the estimation error in transferring the urban population from source zones to target zones when running spatially-refined temporal areal interpolation.

  1. Planning instruments to control urban growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2010-01-01

    It is challenging to plan and control urban development in peri-urban areas. But if no planning is done, the result will often be unsustainable, including widespread, dispersed and uncoordinated urban growth. Spatial planning based on zoning remains the most important planning instrument and its...... success depend on regional coordination. Incentive based instruments may contrbute to growth management, but only few examples are available and their effects on urban growth patterns yet to be seen....

  2. Population growth and development: the Kenyan experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyamwange, M

    1995-01-01

    Rapid population growth in Kenya and high fertility impacts negatively on economic development. The growth and high fertility results in declines in gross national product, per capita food consumption, and land quality; a high dependency ratio; urban crowding; and inadequate health systems. East Africa has the highest crude birth rates in Africa, and Kenya has the highest birth rate of 54/1000 population in East Africa. The African crude death rate is 50% higher than the world average, but Kenya's death rate is the lowest in East Africa and comparable to North American and European death rates. Kenya has the highest rate of natural increase of about 4%. Population growth rates rose over the decades. Kenya's average population density is well above the sub-Saharan African average and much lower than very high density countries. Population is unequally distributed. Regional densities are widely divergent, and the highest densities in Western province are well above densities in Rwanda and Burundi. Urban growth has increased, as has migration to urban areas. Nairobi has 57% of urban population. Improved health and nutrition have contributed to increased life expectancy. The desired family size is large. The impact of demographic factors on economic conditions is evident in the decline in gross national product per capita growth to under 1% during 1972-88. A slight upswing occurred during 1988-93, but other crises are emerging. Food production has not kept pace with population growth. Production has been low due to serious land degradation, short fallow periods, and traditional farming practices. Population pressure has forced families to shift agriculture onto marginal lands, and desertification has increased. A growing proportion of the population is unemployed or underemployed. Population programs should address the underlying conditions for fertility decline.

  3. Modeling urban growth in Kigali city Rwanda

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kagoyire

    industrialization, land consumption and infrastructural development, have impacted ..... urban growth (reference image) and urban development predicted to the ..... neighboring characteristics (regular water and electricity provision) were not ...

  4. Modeling urban growth in Kigali city Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nduwayezu, G.; Sliuzas, R.V.; Kuffer, M.

    2017-01-01

    The uncontrolled urban growth is the key characteristics in most cities in less developed countries. However, having a good understanding of the key drivers of the city's growth dynamism has proven to be a key instrument to manage urban growth. This paper investigates the main determinants of Kigali

  5. Population in urban development and the practical problems of urban planning policy in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Uyanga

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the pattern of recent growth in African towns, examines the population component in this growth process and discusses the attendant urban planning problems. The contention in the study is that there are problems of definition. policy enunciation, and organisational co-ordination in the conceptualization. planning. orchestration and implementation of urban development and service systems. The magnitude of African urban developmental problems, and its multi-faceted nature demands that the latest in scientific knowledge and technological innovations should be integrated and incorporated into the urban planning and implementation processes.

  6. Monitoring urban growth around Rustenburg, South Africa, using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nale Mudau

    spatial growth of Rustenburg city in South Africa from 2007 to 2012 using ... Many studies point out that population growth in urban areas is a result of ... maximum likelihood, minimum distance, spectral unmixing and neutral networks. ..... Bands (Case Study: Arid Region of Iran)', American-Eurasian Journal of Agricultural.

  7. [Economic growth with zero population growth and with declining population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurz, R

    1982-05-01

    The effects of both zero population growth and a declining population on economic growth are considered. Although the neoclassical theory of economic growth leads to optimistic results in such cases, the author suggests that this theory cannot be used as a basis for political action. The need for further research into the economic effects of a stationary or declining population is stressed. (summary in ENG)

  8. Population growth in Shanghai and its characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K

    1985-07-01

    There has been an astonishing change in Shanghai's natural population growth over the past 34 years, with a significant difference between urban and suburban areas. In 1954, the birth rate reached as high as 52.6/1000 and the death rate dropped as low as 7.1/1000, the natural growth rate being 45.4/1000. The substantial decline in the rate of natural increase in Shanghai is due to the enormous achievements of family planning programs. In 1983, the 1-child rate of Shanghai areas was 96.56%, with that in urban areas reaching 99.36% and that in rural areas 92.4%. In the last decade, with the development of industrial production, several satellite cities have been built, attracting some of the urban residents from the city proper. The 5 characteristics relating to Shanghai's population growth are: 1) population density is high and population distribution is uneven; 2) fertility declined drastically in the 1970s; 3) the proportion of young is declining and the proportion of aged is increasing; 4) the mortality has been declining steadily, resulting in a longer life expectancy; and 5) the sex ratio has evened out since the liberation when males greatly outnumbered females. These factors point out the arduous task for family planning in the coming years. The enormous population and the increasing number of young people at child bearing ages point out the necessity of carrying on the family planning program.

  9. Consolidating Data of Global Urban Populations: a Comparative Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankespoor, B.; Khan, A.; Selod, H.

    2017-12-01

    Global data on city populations are essential for the study of urbanization, city growth and the spatial distribution of human settlements. Such data are either gathered by combining official estimates of urban populations from across countries or extracted from gridded population models that combine these estimates with geospatial data. These data sources provide varying estimates of urban populations and each approach has its advantages and limitations. In particular, official figures suffer from a lack of consistency in defining urban units (across both space and time) and often provide data for jurisdictions rather than the functionally meaningful urban area. On the other hand, gridded population models require a user-imposed definition to identify urban areas and are constrained by the modelling techniques and input data employed. To address these drawbacks, we combine these approaches by consolidating information from three established sources: (i) the Citypopulation.de (Brinkhoff, 2016); (ii) the World Urban Prospects data (United Nations, 2014); and (iii) the Global Human Settlements population grid (GHS-POP) (EC - JRC, 2015). We create urban footprints with GHS-POP and spatially merge georeferenced city points from both UN WUP and Citypopulation.de with these urban footprints to identify city points that belong to a single agglomeration. We create a consolidated dataset by combining population data from the UN WUP and Citypopulation.de. The flexible framework outlined can incorporate information from alternative inputs to identify urban clusters e.g. by using night-time lights, built-up area or alternative gridded population models (e.g WorldPop or Landscan) and the parameters employed (e.g. density thresholds for urban footprints) may also be adjusted, e.g., as a function of city-specific characteristics. Our consolidated dataset provides a wider and more accurate coverage of city populations to support studies of urbanization. We apply the data to re

  10. Driving factors of urban land growth in Guangzhou and its implications for sustainable development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Xuezhu; Li, Shaoying; Wang, Xuetong; Xue, Xiaolong

    2018-04-01

    Since 2000, China's urban land has expanded at a dramatic speed because of the country's rapid urbanization. The country has been experiencing unbalanced development between rural and urban areas, causing serious challenges such as agricultural security and land resources waste. Effectively evaluating the driving factors of urban land growth is essential for improving efficient land use management and sustainable urban development. This study established a principal component regression model based on eight indicators to identify their influences on urban land growth in Guangzhou. The results provided a grouping analysis of the driving factors, and found that economic growth, urban population, and transportation development are the driving forces of urban land growth of Guangzhou, while the tertiary industry has an opposite effect. The findings led to further suggestions and recommendations for urban sustainable development. Hence, local governments should design relevant policies for achieving the rational development of urban land use and strategic planning on urban sustainable development.

  11. Urban Growth Areas, This Layer represents the current Urbanized Area for Atlanta as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. An Urbanized Area is a concept used by the U.S. Census Bureau to measure the population, land area and population density of a built-up or continuously deve, Published in 2000, 1:100000 (1in=8333ft) scale, Atlanta Regional Commission.

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Regional | GIS Inventory — Urban Growth Areas dataset current as of 2000. This Layer represents the current Urbanized Area for Atlanta as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. An Urbanized Area...

  12. Population growth, poverty and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibirige, J S

    1997-07-01

    One of the most popular explanations for the many problems that face Africa is population growth. Africa's population has doubled since 1960. Africa has the highest fertility rate in the world and the rate of population growth is higher than in any other region. At the same time, Africa faces a social and economic situation that is viewed by many as alarming. Among the problems that devastate Africa is that of persistent poor health. Africa has lower life expectancy, higher mortality rates and is affected by more disease and illness conditions than any other region. Focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, this paper examines the relationship between population growth, poverty and poor health. While most analyses have focused on population growth as an original cause of poverty and underdevelopment, this paper argues that while both population growth and poor health play a significant role in exacerbating the problem of poverty, they are themselves primary consequences of poverty rather than its cause.

  13. The Philippines: integrated planning for balanced urban growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-12-01

    During the past 80 years, the proportion of the Philippine population living in urban areas has nearly tripled, from 13% at the beginning of the 20th century to 36% in 1980. The number of people living in urban areas multipled 17-fold over this period. Currently, an estimated 17 million people live in urban areas, and this number is expected to reach 30 million by the year 2000. Migration from rural areas has been an important component of urban growth, but it has not been the principal one. Natural increase accounted for 54% of total urban growth in the 1960s and 1970s. A combination of reclassification and migration accounted for the rest. Big cities did not grow as rapidly as small cities, since their growth was generated largely by urban inmigration. Small cities tended to grow faster due to more natural increase than to inmigration. Philippine urbanization has been marked by increasing primacy. Metropolitan Manila, the largest city, has more than quadrupled in size since 1950. The phenomenon of primacy has been the cumulative consequence of historical, demographic, political, and socioeconomic factors. It may also have resulted from growth policies which unintentionally and indirectly favored the premier city. For national planners, the issue of urbanization in the Philippines is closely intertwined with the country's development objectives, particularly those of reducing poverty and attaining a more equitable distribution of income and wealth. The integration of population growth and distribution trends into the planning process is very important. Efforts to actively advocate this approach at various planning levels have been initiated. More must be learned about population and development dynamics, and planning capabilities at all levels must be improved.

  14. Microgeographic differentiation in thermal performance curves between rural and urban populations of an aquatic insect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tüzün, Nedim; Op de Beeck, Lin; Brans, Kristien I; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby

    2017-12-01

    The rapidly increasing rate of urbanization has a major impact on the ecology and evolution of species. While increased temperatures are a key aspect of urbanization ("urban heat islands"), we have very limited knowledge whether this generates differentiation in thermal responses between rural and urban populations. In a common garden experiment, we compared the thermal performance curves (TPCs) for growth rate and mortality in larvae of the damselfly Coenagrion puella from three urban and three rural populations. TPCs for growth rate shifted vertically, consistent with the faster-slower theoretical model whereby the cold-adapted rural larvae grew faster than the warm-adapted urban larvae across temperatures. In line with costs of rapid growth, rural larvae showed lower survival than urban larvae across temperatures. The relatively lower temperatures hence expected shorter growing seasons in rural populations compared to the populations in the urban heat islands likely impose stronger time constraints to reach a certain developmental stage before winter, thereby selecting for faster growth rates. In addition, higher predation rates at higher temperature may have contributed to the growth rate differences between urban and rural ponds. A faster-slower differentiation in TPCs may be a widespread pattern along the urbanization gradient. The observed microgeographic differentiation in TPCs supports the view that urbanization may drive life-history evolution. Moreover, because of the urban heat island effect, urban environments have the potential to aid in developing predictions on the impact of climate change on rural populations.

  15. Policy Tools for Addressing Urban Sprawl: Urban Growth Boundaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric J. STRAUSS

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available The analysis herein explores the topic of urban growth boundaries and how local governments in Romania could use this growth management tool in order to address unplanned, haphazard growth that is taking place at the fringe of cities and in the villages/ farming communities that surround them. The structure of the paper is threefold. The first section focuses on a brief socio-economic profile of Cluj-Napoca, Romania. The aim is to provide a better context and facilitate the reader’s understanding of the nature of urban growth and suburbanization in Romania. Cluj-Napoca is currently in the process of adopting a master plan for the city and specific policy recommendations on how to address urban sprawl may prove useful. The authors hope to stir a debate among scholars, practitioners, and residents with regard to how the city of Cluj will further develop and whether future development should occur in the same manner it occurred during the last 10 years. The second section of the paper is meant to introduce the concepts of growth management and urban growth boundaries. The former is described in terms of a planning philosophy while the latter is portrayed as a specific policy tool that growth management advocates suggest it could be used in order to fight sprawl. A case study on urban growth boundaries is presented in order to underscore specific advantages and disadvantages associated with establishing a growth boundary. The last section comprises several preliminary policy recommendations for the city of Cluj-Napoca. Because of the incomplete data the authors currently have on critical issues some of the recommendations are general in scope and need to be further detailed.

  16. Population growth and infant mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Fabella, Christina

    2008-01-01

    The relationship between population growth and economic outcomes is an issue of great policy significance. In the era of the Millennium Development Goals, poverty and its correlates have become the compelling issues. Economic growth may not automatically translate into reductions in poverty and its correlates (may not trickle down) if income distribution is at the same time worsening. We therefore investigate the direct effect of population growth on infant mortality for various income catego...

  17. Forecasting urban growth across the United States-Mexico border

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, L.M.; Feller, M.; Phillip, Guertin D.

    2009-01-01

    The sister-city area of Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, is known collectively as Ambos (both) Nogales. This area was historically one city and was administratively divided by the Gadsden Purchase in 1853. These arid-lands have limited and sensitive natural resources. Environmental planning can support sustainable development to accommodate the predicted influx of population. The objective of this research is to quantify the amount of predicted urban growth for the Ambos Nogales watershed to support future planning for sustainable development. Two modeling regimes are explored. Our goal is to identify possible growth patterns associated with the twin-city area as a whole and with the two cities modeled as separate entities. We analyzed the cross-border watershed using regression analysis from satellite images from 1975, 1983, 1996, and 2002 and created urban area classifications. We used these classifications as input to the urban growth model, SLEUTH, to simulate likely patterns of development and define projected conversion probabilities. Model results indicate that the two cities are undergoing very different patterns of change and identify locations of expected growth based on historical development. Growth in Nogales, Arizona is stagnant while the urban area in Nogales, Sonora is exploding. This paper demonstrates an application that portrays how future binational urban growth could develop and affect the environment. This research also provides locations of potential growth for use in city planning.

  18. Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

    2017-01-01

    Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

  19. Examining The Evolution Of The Khuzestan Urban Population Using The Urban Primacy Indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mokhtar Karami

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Examining the status of a city in the surrounding metropolitan area network not only helpful for Specialists to understand the ups and downs of city life and surrounding it but also can set the groundwork for hierarchical relationships settlements and planners for discipline the urban network is studied. Research to study the evolution of the urban population in Khuzestan province was conducted during the statistical period 1957-2012. The method is a descriptive and analytical study. To collect the data in addition the study of literature the Facts Sheet the statistical yearbooks and census of population and housing censuses in all courses has been used. Then to enter data and analysis it the Excel and Minitab software was used. Models used in this study are Ginsberg index Urban Primacy Index Two City Index Four City Index Mehtas Four City Index Moomav and Alwosabi. The results show that is balance between the parameters of the Urban Primacy Indexes in Khuzestan province since 1957 to 1977. The process of balancing continue and is destroy until the beginning of the Imposed war and the depletion of the population of cities and in 1987 the Urban Primacy Index reached its highest level and due to the problems of the war in Ahvaz it earns the highest the Urban Primacy Index. Since 1987 the Urban Primacy Index reduced and their balancing process continues until 2012 that this balancing process due to natural population growth since after 1997.

  20. Urban sprawl, smart growth, and deliberative democracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnik, David B

    2010-10-01

    Urban sprawl is an increasingly common feature of the built environment in the United States and other industrialized nations. Although there is considerable evidence that urban sprawl has adverse affects on public health and the environment, policy frameworks designed to combat sprawl-such as smart growth-have proven to be controversial, making implementation difficult. Smart growth has generated considerable controversy because stakeholders affected by urban planning policies have conflicting interests and divergent moral and political viewpoints. In some of these situations, deliberative democracy-an approach to resolving controversial public-policy questions that emphasizes open, deliberative debate among the affected parties as an alternative to voting-would be a fair and effective way to resolve urban-planning issues.

  1. Decades of urban growth and development on the Asian megadeltas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, Christopher; Sousa, Daniel; Yetman, Gregory; Elvidge, Christopher; MacManus, Kytt

    2018-06-01

    The current and ongoing expansion of urban areas worldwide represents the largest mass migration in human history. It is well known that the world's coastal zones are associated with large and growing concentrations of population, urban development and economic activity. Among coastal environments, deltas have long been recognized for both benefits and hazards. This is particularly true on the Asian megadeltas, where the majority of the world's deltaic populations reside. Current trends in urban migration, combined with demographic momentum suggest that the already large populations on the Asian megadeltas will continue to grow. In this study, we combine recently released gridded population density (circa 2010) with a newly developed night light change product (1992 to 2012) and a digital elevation model to quantify the spatial distribution of population and development on the nine Asian megadeltas. Bivariate distributions of population as functions of elevation and coastal proximity quantify potential exposure of deltaic populations to flood and coastal hazards. Comparison of these distributions for the Asian megadeltas show very different patterns of habitation with peak population elevations ranging from 2 to 11 m above sea level over a wide range of coastal proximities. Over all nine megadeltas, over 174 million people reside below a peak population elevation of 7 m. Changes in the spatial extent of anthropogenic night light from 1992 to 2012 show widely varying extents and changes of lighted urban development. All of the deltas except the Indus show the greatest increases in night light brightness occurring at elevations <10 m. At global and continental scales, growth of settlements of all sizes takes the form of evolving spatial networks of development. Spatial networks of lighted urban development in Asia show power law scaling properties consistent with other continents, but much higher rates of growth. The three largest networks of development in China all

  2. Impact of Urban Growth and Urbanization on the Environmental Degradation of Lakes in Hyderabad City, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandan, M. J.; Sen, M. K.; Harini, P.; Sekhar, B. M.; Balaji, T.

    2013-12-01

    Lakes are a vital part of urban ecosystems which perform important ecological and environmental functions to safeguard local climate, groundwater and habitat. The incessant population growth coupled with low urban planning is causing severe damage to urban ecosystems throughout the world. Hyderabad is one of the largest growing metropolitan cities of India covering an area of 65000 ha situated on the banks of Musi River in the northern part of the Deccan Plateau. The city had a population of 1.25 million in 1961 which increased to 6.8 million in 2011 with a metropolitan population of 7.75 million, making it India's fourth most populous city and sixth most populous urban agglomeration. Hyderabad is popularly known as 'City of Lakes' which occupies the top position in India in terms of Urban Lakes. In 20th century, the number of lakes were around 925 which are now reduced to 521 and most of these lakes are facing extinction. The water spread area of these lakes has been considerably reduced due to steady urban growth and the carrying capacity and ecological status of these urban lakes are in real danger. Many of these lakes have shrunk in size while the waters of several lakes got polluted with the discharge of untreated domestic and industrial effluents. Taking into consideration the environmental degradation of urban lakes, an attempt was made to study the current status, loss of water bodies and water spread using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Time-series satellite images of MSS, IRS and RESOURCESAT and Survey of India maps of 1:50,000 and 1:25,000 were used for this study. Analysis of these together with other data sets was accomplished through integrated use of ERDAS Imagine Arc view and ArcGIS software packages. It is estimated that there were 925 lakes in 1982 in erstwhile Hyderabad Urban Development Authority (HUDA) area which came down to 521 in 2012. A total number of 404 lakes disappeared during the last 30 years period. Consequently the water spread

  3. Canada's population: growth and dualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaujot, R P

    1978-04-01

    In Canada the current 1.3% population growth rate is causing some concern. Those concerned argue that such a rate of growth in combination with high levels of consumption could jeopardize the country's resource base and its comfortable style of living. Many Canadians are questioning high levels of immigration, for now that the fertility level is below replacement level, net immigration contributes substantially to population growth (over 1/3 in 1976). The growing proportion of non-Europeans among recent immigrants is causing resentment, and, in a tight job market, immigrants are regarded as threats to the World War 2 baby boom cohort who are now at working ages. The baby boom generation also puts stress on housing and health services, and it will increase the need for pension checks as it ages. Although French fertility is no longer high and immigration is no longer dominated by the British, the French group's 200-year struggle to preserve its identity continues on in the current effort of the Quebec government to enforce the use of French language by law within that province. Geography and climate dictate another demographic fact that divides the country and pervades its history. In addition to intense regionalism, uneven population distribution is responsible for 2 other concerns: the rapid growth of several already large cities and depopulation of many small communities. Focus in this discussion is on Canada's population growth in the past and as projected for the future, historical and current fertility, mortality and immigration trends, the search for a new immigration policy, the impact of the baby boom generation on the population's age structure and the problems this creates, and recent shifts in population distribution and in the country's ethnic and linguistic makeup. The population policy proposals evolved thus far involve to a great extent the use of immigration as a lever for achieving given population objectives.

  4. [African population growth: status and prospects].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabutin, D

    1991-01-01

    Despite great improvements over the past several years, the quality of demographic data in Africa is still a problem, and Africa remains the least well known continent. Population growth is extremely rapid, with all countries growing at annual rates of over 3%. The natural increase rate even shows some signs of increasing slightly in the next decade or so. Africa's population was estimated at 220 million in 1950, 650 million at present, and is projected at 1.5 billion by 2025. Africans represented 9% of the world population in 1960, but will increase to 19% around 2025. The rapid population growth is the result of declining mortality since the 1950s unmatched by changes in fertility. There are significant socioeconomic and rural-urban mortality differentials in Africa, but as yet only highly educated urbanites have measurably reduced their family size. 2 consequences of this rapid growth are the youth of the population, with almost 50% under 20 years, and its high density in some areas. By 2025, 18 countries will have densities of over 100 persons per sq km. Almost everywhere in Africa, family sizes are at least 6 children/woman. 3 factors explaining this high level of fertility are the earliness and universality of marriage, rates of contraceptive usage of only 4-10% in most countries, and declining durations of breast feeding and sexual abstinence, which traditionally served as brakes on fertility. As a rule, women marry young and remain married until the end of their reproductive years. Divorce and widowhood are common, but remarriage is usually rapid if the woman is still of reproductive age. Life expectancy at birth in sub-Saharan Africa has increased from some 36 years around 1950 to 50 years at present. Progress in control of mortality, and especially infant mortality, has been slower than expected, and Africa still has by far the lowest life expectancy of any major region. Regional, rural-urban, and socioeconomic mortality differentials are considerable and

  5. Assessment of ecosystem services provided by urban trees: public lands within the Urban Growth Boundary of Corvallis, OR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Public lands within the Urban Growth Boundary of Corvallis, Oregon contain a diverse population of about 440,000 trees that include over 300 varieties and have an estimated tree cover of 31%. While often unrecognized, urban trees provide a variety of “ecosystem services” or dire...

  6. Shrinking population and the urban hierarchy

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Ho Yeon

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines whether population shrinkage leads to changes in the urban hierarchy in terms of relative sizes of cities and their functions onomic geography. We work backwards in a racetrack economy with eight cities in a long-run equilibrium. Initial distribution of population is chosen to satisfy both the rank-size rule and central place hierarchy. We have a short-run equilibrium in which firms choose prices and consumers choose consumption taking the number of workers in each region ...

  7. The outlook for population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ronald

    2011-07-29

    Projections of population size, growth rates, and age distribution, although extending to distant horizons, shape policies today for the economy, environment, and government programs such as public pensions and health care. The projections can lead to costly policy adjustments, which in turn can cause political and economic turmoil. The United Nations projects global population to grow from about 7 billion today to 9.3 billion in 2050 and 10.1 billion in 2100, while the Old Age Dependency Ratio doubles by 2050 and triples by 2100. How are such population projections made, and how certain can we be about the trends they foresee?

  8. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  9. Population growth and its implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badii, M. H.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Human populations have grown at an unprecedented rate over the past three centuries. By 2001, the world population stood at 6.2 billion people. If the current trend of 1.4 % per year persists, the population will double in 51years. Most of that growth will occur in the less developed countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. There is a serious concern that the number of humans in the world and our impact on the environment will overload the life support systems of the earth. The crude birth rate is the number of births in a year divided by the average population. A more accurate measure of growth is the general fertility rate, which takes into account the age structure and fecundity of the population. The crude birth rate minus the crude death rate gives the rate of natural increase. When this rate reaches a level at which people are just replacing themselves, zero population growth is achieved. In the more highly developed countries of the world, growth has slowed are even reversed in recent years so that without immigration from other areas, population would be declining. The change from high birth and death rates that accompanies in industrialization is called a demographic transition. Many developing nations have already begun this transition. Death rates have fallen, but birth rates remain high. Some demographers believe that as infant mortality drops and economic development progresses so that people in these countries can be sure of secure future, they will complete the transition to a stable population or a high standard living. While larger populations bring many problems, they also may be a valuable resource of energy, intelligence, and enterprise that will make it possible to overcome resource limitation problems. A social just view argues that a more equitable distribution of wealth might reduce both excess population growth and environmental degradation. We have many more options now for controlling fertility than were available

  10. Landscape urbanization and economic growth in China: positive feedbacks and sustainability dilemmas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Xuemei; Chen, Jing; Shi, Peijun

    2012-01-03

    Accelerating urbanization has been viewed as an important instrument for economic development and reducing regional income disparity in some developing countries, including China. Recent studies (Bloom et al. 2008) indicate that demographic urbanization level has no causal effect on economic growth. However, due to the varying and changing definition of urban population, the use of demographic indicators as a sole representing indicator for urbanization might be misleading. Here, we re-examine the causal relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Chinese cities and provinces in recent decades, using built-up areas as a landscape urbanization indicator. Our analysis shows that (1) larger cities, both in terms of population size and built-up area, and richer cities tend to gain more income, have larger built-up area expansion, and attract more population, than poorer cities or smaller cities; and (2) that there is a long-term bidirectional causality between urban built-up area expansion and GDP per capita at both city and provincial level, and a short-term bidirectional causality at provincial level, revealing a positive feedback between landscape urbanization and urban and regional economic growth in China. Our results suggest that urbanization, if measured by a landscape indicator, does have causal effect on economic growth in China, both within the city and with spillover effect to the region, and that urban land expansion is not only the consequences of economic growth in cities, but also drivers of such growth. The results also suggest that under its current economic growth model, it might be difficult for China to control urban expansion without sacrificing economic growth, and China's policy to stop the loss of agricultural land, for food security, might be challenged by its policy to promote economic growth through urbanization.

  11. Political economy of population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, S; Mehta, H S

    1987-01-01

    Tracing the origin of political economy as a class-science, this paper focuses on the political economy of population growth. Exposing the limitations of Malthusian ideas and their invalidity even for the capitalist economies, it discusses the subsequent revival of the Malthusian model during the period of de-colonization and the misinterpretation of the relationship between population growth and development in the developing and developed countries. Taking India, China, and Japan as some case studies, the paper examines the relationship between birth rate levels and some correlates. It elaborates on the Indian experience, emphasizing the association of population growth with poverty and unemployment and lays bare some of the hidden causes of these phenomena. The authors examine some interstate variations in India and identify constraints and prospects of the existing population policy. The paper proposes outlines of a democratic population policy as an integral part of India's development strategy which should recognize human beings not simply as consumers but also as producers of material values. It pleads for 1) restructuring of property relations; 2) bringing down the mortality rates and raising of the literacy levels, especially among females; and 3) improving nutritional levels, as prerequisites for bringing down birth rates.

  12. Population health and urban form : a review of the literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-11-01

    A review examining the links between public health and living spaces was presented. The aim of the review was to explore whether different urban forms created communities that encouraged healthy living and resulted in a healthier population as well as to suggest avenues and approaches for further research of the subject in British Columbia. The historical links between public health and community planning were examined. A conceptual model of the linkages of urban form and population health was developed and used to identify ways in which urban form and population health are linked. Areas of concern include vehicle emissions, water quality and heat build-up as well as noise pollution. Issues concerning health inequalities related to income and access to health services were examined, as well as the role that urban form plays as a barrier to physical activity. Findings indicated that there is a strong correlation between urban form and health. Lower density urban forms that require a vehicle generated more miles travelled by car with more traffic crashes and higher risks to pedestrians and cyclists. A growing body of evidence has indicated that community contacts are scarcer in low density areas. In addition, low density dwellers seemed to have higher stress levels. Car dependent lifestyles had negative impacts on children's play, growth and development. Urban forms which promoted a range of housing options in terms of affordability, tenure and type allowed people to remain within their neighbourhoods. Disadvantaged groups fared better in denser areas where there were more public facilities. 62 refs. 1 tab., 2 figs

  13. Projected Impact of Urban Growth on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Federico; Murgante, Beniamino; Martellozzo, Federico

    2017-04-01

    Human activities on land use such as intensive agricultural techniques and urbanization are generating a number of social and economic benefit for contemporary society. Besides, these phenomena are one of the most significant causes of Land Degradation. Firstly, intensive agriculture is on the one hand creating an advantage in the short-period in terms of food production, while on the other is producing serious long-period problems in terms of loss of ecosystem services, including some important for agriculture itself. Secondly, the rapid growth of urban areas in recent decades is generating deep environmental issues. The World Urbanization Prospect by the United Nations (UN) shows that more than half of the world's population today (54%) lives in urban areas. This figure was only 30% in 1950, and estimates are that it will rise to 66% by 2050. Urban growth is responsible for the increase of air pollution, waste production, energy consumption, and land take. Moreover, the expansion of urban areas is making the problem of urban heat islands more relevant, and studies are proving how land cover changes are among the main factors that affect local microclimates. Consequently, territorial planning will play an important role in the fight to mitigate the effects of climate change, as land cover has a significant impact on the energy exchanges between the earth and the atmosphere. This study couples urban growth simulation models based on cellular automata to multiple linear regression techniques that are used to formulate equations for predicting the effects of simulated urban development on soil surface temperature. The proposed methodology is applied to the case study of the Italian national territory, considering various alternative scenarios of land use changes and of their impact on local surface temperatures. The results show that the areas with the greatest urban pressure might be subject to significant climatic changes due to the increased impact of urban heat

  14. Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

    2018-05-01

    Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees ( Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

  15. Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

    2017-12-01

    Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees (Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

  16. The Rapid Urban Growth Triad: A New Conceptual Framework for Examining the Urban Transition in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle Farrell

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Although the urban transition is a universal event that unfolds in all countries, the determinants, patterns, and outcomes do not necessarily follow a uniform process. With the urban transition being basically completed in developed countries around the turn of the 21st century, the growth of cities today is almost entirely confined to developing countries. Still, much of our conceptual understanding of this process is derived from earlier accounts, with definitions rooted in a historical context. This has resulted in common misconceptions such as a tendency to view the growth of cities primarily as an outcome of rural to urban migration, neglecting the growing contributions of urban natural population increase and reclassification of rural areas. A tendency to treat the components of urban growth in isolation has created a rift within the urban studies discourse, preventing any real theorization of their combined impacts and the interplay among them. Applying a systems thinking approach, this paper introduces a multidisciplinary framework for conceptualizing rapid urban growth in developing countries. The framework offers explanatory power to previously neglected components of urban growth and serves as a diagnostic for examining the urban transition—ultimately revealing new policy levers for managing it in a sustainable way.

  17. Environmental impact of population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, Rosamond; Matson, Pamela

    Earth's population currently numbers 5.4 billion; even given optimistic assumptions for reduction in growth rates, the number will double by the middle of the next century with most of the increase in the developing countries. Rapid population growth in the developing world raises the fundamental dilemma of how to alleviate chronic hunger and poverty in the short run while preserving the atmosphere and ecosystem services required for long-term human and biospheric sustenance. This dilemma, and the compromises required to solve it, were discussed by twenty-five researchers from five countries at the Aspen Global Change Institute 1992 Summer Science Session III, Food, Conservation, and Global Environmental Change: Is Compromise Possible?, held from August 16 to 28, in Aspen, Colo.

  18. Population growth and economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbridge, S

    1989-01-01

    The Malthusian and neo-Malthusian approaches to the role of population growth in economic development and resource depletion are briefly outlined. Three arguments are then presented that emphasize demographic determinism, empirical evidence, and cause and effect. The author concludes that non-coercive family planning programs may have a role to play in countries that are unable to reduce inequalities, particularly for the poor and for women.

  19. [Urban and rural population of the state of Sao Paulo: results of the census of 1980].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, P M

    1981-01-01

    The accelerated urban growth of Sao Paulo between 1940-70 has continued during the period 1970-80, according to the 1980 censes. During 1970-80 the urban population increased 55.47%, while the rural population decreased 18.67%, bringing the percentage of the urban population to 88.6% of the total population of the state. This phenomenon has been common to all the 11 administrative regions of the state. The highest percentage of the urban population in 1980 was in the region of Greater Sao Paulo, followed by Litoral and Vale do Paraiba. The largest increases in urban population were in the regions of Sorocaba, Campinas, and Vale do Paraiba, while the highest decreases in rural population were in the regions of Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Aracatuba, Presidente Prudente, and Marilia. The document presents detailed data for each of the 11 administrative regions of the state, and for each municipality within a region.

  20. Population Growth and National Population Policy of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thukral, A. K.; Singh, B. P.

    2008-01-01

    The population growth in India may overtake China by the year 2030. The National Population Policy of India targets population stabilization in India by the year 2045. The present paper carries out objective analysis of the population growth in India in terms of change in specific growth. At the present rate of specific growth rate decline, the population by the end of the century will be 2.49 billion. For the population to achieve zero growth by the year 2045, a decline in specific growth rate will have to be achieved at the rate of 0.000428 per year.

  1. Poverty, population growth, and youth violence in DRC's cities ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-28

    Apr 28, 2016 ... Poverty, population growth, and youth violence in DRC's cities ... Learn more about what drives DRC's urban violence and how it is linked to poverty ... ​Youth violence and the shift of land disputes from rural communities into ...

  2. Is Demography Destiny? Urban Population Change and Economic Vitality of Future Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Poot

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The growth of cities has attracted considerable scholarly attention during the last decade as it is becoming clear that powerful agglomeration forces are reinforcing the role of cities as the engines of economic growth. Close to 4 billion people live in cities, about 55 per cent of the world's population. While population growth rates are declining and the world's population is likely to level off from the middle of the 21st century, probably ending up around 10 billion, further urbanization is expected to continue. Another 3 billion people will become urban citizens this century. At the same time no corner of the world will be sheltered from sweeping demographic changes due to population ageing and increasing migration. Such changes will be amplified in cities. In this paper we combine UN population projections and migration data with our own assumptions to derive projections of age composition and birthplace composition of urban populations by continent. We also briefly address the consequences of these demographic trends for future urban economic vitality. Particular attention is paid to the impacts of demographic changes on urban creativity and innovation. We conclude that, with the right policies in place, such demographic changes enhance rather than impede the future prosperity of the urban world. KEYWORDS: World population projections, urbanization, ageing, migration, ethnic diversity

  3. The Impact of Urban Growth and Climate Change on Heat Stress in an Australian City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, S.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Thatcher, M. J.; Salazar, A.; Watson, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Over half of the world's population lives in urban areas. Most people will therefore be exposed to climate change in an urban environment. One of the climate risks facing urban residents is heat stress, which can lead to illness and death. Urban residents are at increased risk of heat stress due to the urban heat island effect. The urban heat island is a modification of the urban environment and increases temperatures on average by 2°C, though the increase can be much higher, up to 8°C when wind speeds and cloud cover are low. The urban heat island is also expected to increase in the future due to urban growth and intensification, further exacerbating urban heat stress. Climate change alters the urban heat island due to changes in weather (wind speed and cloudiness) and evapotranspiration. Future urban heat stress will therefore be affected by urban growth and climate change. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of urban growth and climate change on the urban heat island and heat stress in Brisbane, Australia. We used CCAM, the conformal cubic atmospheric model developed by the CSIRO, to examine temperatures in Brisbane using scenarios of urban growth and climate change. We downscaled the urban climate using CCAM, based on bias corrected Sea Surface Temperatures from the ACCESS1.0 projection of future climate. We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the periods 1990 - 2000, 2049 - 2060 and 2089 - 2090 with current land use and an urban growth scenario. The present day climatology was verified using weather station data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We compared the urban heat island of the present day with the urban heat island with climate change to determine if climate change altered the heat island. We also calculated heat stress using wet-bulb globe temperature and apparent temperature for the climate change and base case scenarios. We found the urban growth scenario increased present day temperatures by 0.5°C in the

  4. OPEN SOURCE APPROACH TO URBAN GROWTH SIMULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Petrasova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Spatial patterns of land use change due to urbanization and its impact on the landscape are the subject of ongoing research. Urban growth scenario simulation is a powerful tool for exploring these impacts and empowering planners to make informed decisions. We present FUTURES (FUTure Urban – Regional Environment Simulation – a patch-based, stochastic, multi-level land change modeling framework as a case showing how what was once a closed and inaccessible model benefited from integration with open source GIS.We will describe our motivation for releasing this project as open source and the advantages of integrating it with GRASS GIS, a free, libre and open source GIS and research platform for the geospatial domain. GRASS GIS provides efficient libraries for FUTURES model development as well as standard GIS tools and graphical user interface for model users. Releasing FUTURES as a GRASS GIS add-on simplifies the distribution of FUTURES across all main operating systems and ensures the maintainability of our project in the future. We will describe FUTURES integration into GRASS GIS and demonstrate its usage on a case study in Asheville, North Carolina. The developed dataset and tutorial for this case study enable researchers to experiment with the model, explore its potential or even modify the model for their applications.

  5. [Urbanization mechanisms in bird species: population systems transformations or adaptations at the individual level?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fridman, V S; Eremkin, G S; Zakharova-Kubareva, N Iu

    2008-01-01

    The present research deals with urbanization of wild bird and mammal species. Forms and mechanisms of population steadiness in the urban landscape have been examined. The urbanization process turned out to be a directed change of the population system forming de novo in the urbolandscape leading to a sustainable organization peculiar for the particular environment. The population organization of different types in urbolandscape is found to provide its stability under conditions of directed and fast changes accompanied with instability and heterogenous structure of habitats. It is shown that the same type of population organization meets the corresponding demands among different species settling in the urban environment. Its features are "openness" and "flowage" of the groups, far order of settlement levels and other units of population system, constant movements of the individuals between the groups as a respond to the signals of urboenvironment significant changes. The "urban" variant of the population system organization turns out to be opposite to that of the same species in the non-urban habitats. After formation of the urban types by the species and successful developing of the town, the urban population becomes separated from the maternal local population and begins to exist independently in the urban landscape. The variety of adaptation aberrations in ecology, behavior, and mode of life of urban birds is the population system stability function in the urban landscape and is not a results of individual selection. It is shown that the urbanization process of the species goes firstly on the population level being the system structure transformation developed by the species towards the most stable state in the town (city) territory. Only after the appearance of stable urban population, the urban individuals show the rapid growth of different changes in ecology, behavior, mode of life that was traditionally described by naturalists as species adaptation to the

  6. Nigerian population growth and its implications for economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okpala, A O

    1990-12-01

    The population of Nigeria is growing at a rate of 3.75%/year indicating a doubling of the population every 22 years. Demographers estimated the population to be 91,178,000 in 1985. Even though population density is high (288 people/square mile), it is not equally distributed. It is highest in the south and southwest urban areas such as Lagos (1045 people/square mile) and lowest in the northeast (75 people/square mile). Moreover rural-urban migration is growing. A major reason for rural-urban migration is the dual nature of the economy in Nigeria. In urban areas, economic development brings about higher standards of living, but, in rural areas, a subsistence economy predominates. This coupled with rapid population growth results in small or no growth in per capita income. Only if the government were to integrate redistribution policies into complete economic development plans should it consider redistributing the population. It should stress rural development (e.g., incentives for firms to set up in rural areas). Further it should move some government offices to rural areas. The government also needs to adopt population policies encouraging the lowering of fertility levels. If it were to provide education through the secondary and prevocational education level free of charge, educated women will lower their fertility. Sex education should be included in the curriculum. Further the government must play an active role in family planning programs, especially educating rural women about family planning. It should also use the mass media to promote small family size, but it should not dictate family size. It also needs to recognize that population growth puts much pressure on the environment. For example, population growth causes soil erosion, nutrient exhaustion, rapid deforestation, and other problems which render the land unusable for agriculture.

  7. Implications of rural-urban migration for conservation of the Atlantic Forest and urban growth in Misiones, Argentina (1970-2030).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izquierdo, Andrea E; Grau, Héctor R; Aide, T Mitchell

    2011-05-01

    Global trends of increasing rural-urban migration and population urbanization could provide opportunities for nature conservation, particularly in regions where deforestation is driven by subsistence agriculture. We analyzed the role of rural population as a driver of deforestation and its contribution to urban population growth from 1970 to the present in the Atlantic Forest of Argentina, a global conservation priority. We created future land-use-cover scenarios based on human demographic parameters and the relationship between rural population and land-cover change between 1970 and 2006. In 2006, native forest covered 50% of the province, but by 2030 all scenarios predicted a decrease that ranged from 18 to 39% forest cover. Between 1970 and 2001, rural migrants represented 20% of urban population growth and are expected to represent less than 10% by 2030. This modeling approach shows how rural-urban migration and land-use planning can favor nature conservation with little impact on urban areas.

  8. Comprehensive evaluation system of intelligent urban growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lian-Yan; Ren, Xiao-Bin

    2017-06-01

    With the rapid urbanization of the world, urban planning has become increasingly important and necessary to ensure people have access to equitable and sustainable homes, resources and jobs.This article is to talk about building an intelligent city evaluation system.First,using System Analysis Model(SAM) which concludes literature data analysis and stepwise regression analysis to describe intelligent growth scientifically and obtain the evaluation index. Then,using the improved entropy method to obtain the weight of the evaluation index.Afterwards, establishing a complete Smart Growth Comprehensive Evaluation Model(SGCEM).Finally,testing the correctness of the model.Choosing Otago(New Zealand )and Yumen(China) as research object by data mining and SGCEM model,then we get Yumen and Otago’s rational degree’s values are 0.3485 and 0.5376 respectively. It’s believed that the Otago’s smart level is higher,and it is found that the estimated value of rationality is consistent with the reality.

  9. Quantifying Impacts of Urban Growth Potential on Army Training Capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-12

    Capacity” ERDC/CERL TR-17-34 ii Abstract Building on previous studies of urban growth and population effects on U.S. military installations and...Bryan S. Green and the Director was Dr. David W. Pittman. ERDC/CERL TR-17-34 viii Unit Conversion Factors Multiply By To Obtain acres 4,046.873...combat team studies. CAA has developed an iterative process that builds on Military Value Anal- ysis (MVA) models that include a set of attributes that

  10. Hypertension in a Brazilian urban slum population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, Alon; Felzemburgh, Ridalva D M; Snyder, Robert E; Ribeiro, Guilherme S; Mohr, Sharif; Costa, Vinícius B A; Melendez, Astrid X T O; Reis, Renato B; Santana, Francisco S; Riley, Lee W; Reis, Mitermayer G; Ko, Albert I

    2015-06-01

    Low- and middle-income countries account for the majority of hypertension disease burden. However, little is known about the distribution of this illness within subpopulations of these countries, particularly among those who live in urban informal settlements. A cross-sectional hypertension survey was conducted in 2003 among 5649 adult residents of a slum settlement in the city of Salvador, Brazil. Hypertension was defined as either an elevated arterial systolic (≥140 mmHg) or diastolic (≥90 mmHg) blood pressure. Sex-specific multivariable models of systolic blood pressure were constructed to identify factors associated with elevated blood pressure. The prevalence of hypertension in the population 18 years and older was 21% (1162/5649). Men had 1.2 times the risk of hypertension compared with women (95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.05, 1.36). Increasing age and lack of any schooling, particularly for women, were also significantly associated with elevated blood pressure (p slum community was lower than reported frequencies in the non-slum population of Brazil and Salvador, yet both disease awareness and treatment frequency were low. Further research on hypertension and other chronic non-communicable diseases in slum populations is urgently needed to guide prevention and treatment efforts in this growing population.

  11. The potential impact of urban growth simulation on the long-term planning of our cities

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Waldeck, L

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available of urban growth simulation on the long-term planning of our cities 4th Biennial Conference Presented by: Dr Louis Waldeck Date: 10 October 2012 Slide 2 of 17 Why Urban Growth Simulation? ? Reduced carbon footprint ? Reduce resource consumption... of the population concentrated in cities and the opportunities to gain efficiencies, cities are the most important arena for intervention.? Maurice Strong Unabated urbanisation Quest for sustainable development What makes a city sustainable? Slide 3 of 17...

  12. Spatio-temporal landscape modeling of urban growth patterns in Dhanbad Urban Agglomeration, India using geoinformatics techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanhaiya Lal

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The study deals with the quantification of urban sprawl and land transformation of Dhanbad Urban Agglomeration (DUA using geoinformatics and gradient modeling during last four decades (1972–2011. Various multi-temporal satellite images viz., MSS (1972, ETM+ (1999, 2011 and digital elevation model (CARTOSAT I, 2006 were used to analyse the urban expansion, land transformation, growth directions, and spatial segregations within the urban landscape to develop an understanding the nature of built-up growth in DUA. The urban area increased from 10.33 km2 to 46.70 km2 (352.08% along with high rate of population growth (160.07% during 1972–2011 exhibiting population densification in DUA. The study reveals that coal mining based city faced significant land use transformation converting vegetation (−41.33% into built-up land (352.08% exhibiting loss of productive lands for the expansion of impervious surface. The per year urban growth exhibited increasing urban growth from 0.4 km2/year to 1.51 km2/year during 1972–1999 and 1999–2011 periods with overall growth of 332.73%. The built-up growth on varied elevation zones exhibits that the elevation zones 150–200 m is the most preferred (79.01% for urban development with high growth (541.74%. The gradient modeling represents that the percentage of land (built-up gradually increased from 3.48% to 15.74% during 1972–2011. The result exhibited that the major growth took place in south-west direction followed by south direction in haphazard manner during 1971–99 period, whereas predominant built-up development was observed in north, south and south-west direction during 1999–2011 period, majorly within the municipal limits. The study provides an analytical method to evaluate the built-up growth patterns of an urban milieu combining geoinformatics and landscape matrix. The built-up growth in DUA indicates urgent imposition of building bylaws along with zoning (land use, height and density

  13. Using GIS for Developing Sustainable Urban Growth Case Kyrenia Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, C.; Akçit, N.

    2018-03-01

    It is critical to develop urban layers for analysis sustainable urban development possibilities within planning process. Kyrenia Region has many physical, environmental or economic issues that may danger the growth possibilities in sustainable manner. From this point, this study uses different spatial layers such as slope, distance to roads, distance to central zone, vegetation, soil productivity, environmental protection zones, distance to open/green space, distance to education for supporting sustainable urban growth policies and define suitable areas for urban development within this perspective. The study tries to convert sustainable urban growth policies such as; compact growth, environmental protection, equal accessibility to basic services; into spatial layers and establish proper framework for multi criteria evaluation in Kyrenia Region within using geographical information systems. It shows suitability values for Kyrenia region and constraints zones at final section. It clearly presents the suitable areas for the sustainable urbanization and also unsuitable or risky areas for reducing the possible disasters and may happen in the future.

  14. Simulating urban growth in the George town conurbation | Samat ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... Therefore, this paper aims to develop an urban growth simulation model using GIS-based CA-Markov approach, incorporated with driving forces of urban growth in the Malaysian context. ... Keywords: CA-Markov; Geograpghic Information Sciences (GIS); Land use changes;

  15. Random-growth urban model with geographical fitness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kii, Masanobu; Akimoto, Keigo; Doi, Kenji

    2012-12-01

    This paper formulates a random-growth urban model with a notion of geographical fitness. Using techniques of complex-network theory, we study our system as a type of preferential-attachment model with fitness, and we analyze its macro behavior to clarify the properties of the city-size distributions it predicts. First, restricting the geographical fitness to take positive values and using a continuum approach, we show that the city-size distributions predicted by our model asymptotically approach Pareto distributions with coefficients greater than unity. Then, allowing the geographical fitness to take negative values, we perform local coefficient analysis to show that the predicted city-size distributions can deviate from Pareto distributions, as is often observed in actual city-size distributions. As a result, the model we propose can generate a generic class of city-size distributions, including but not limited to Pareto distributions. For applications to city-population projections, our simple model requires randomness only when new cities are created, not during their subsequent growth. This property leads to smooth trajectories of city population growth, in contrast to other models using Gibrat’s law. In addition, a discrete form of our dynamical equations can be used to estimate past city populations based on present-day data; this fact allows quantitative assessment of the performance of our model. Further study is needed to determine appropriate formulas for the geographical fitness.

  16. Urbanisation, urban growth and planning in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    pressure. Growth management strategies are necessary to secure future balanced and sustainable development throughout the whole urban region. The analysis of urbanisation and urban growth in peri-urban areas is at the core of this study, including socio-demographic and functional dynamics, land use impacts...... and options for spatial planning. The main case was the metropolitan region of Copenhagen, Denmark. Other cases from Europe and the USA were used as reference studies. The methods included quantitative analyses of register and land use data as well as general case study work to investigate options for spatial...... planning. The study shows that, while the most visible impacts of land use changes can be found at the close urban fringe, many other dynamics have a much longer reach into the rural-urban region. In the Copenhagen metropolitan region, we can observe migration to peri-urban areas and to the urban core...

  17. Particle formation and growth at five rural and urban sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, C.-H.; Evans, G. J.; McGuire, M. L.; Chang, R. Y.-W.; Abbatt, J. P. D.; Zeromskiene, K.; Mozurkewich, M.; Li, S.-M.; Leaitch, W. R.

    2010-08-01

    Ultrafine particle (UFP) number and size distributions were simultaneously measured at five urban and rural sites during the summer of 2007 in Ontario, Canada as part of the Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met 2007). Particle formation and growth events at these five sites were classified based on their strength and persistence as well as the variation in geometric mean diameter. Regional nucleation and growth events and local short-lived strong nucleation events were frequently observed at the near-border rural sites, upwind of industrial sources. Surprisingly, the particle number concentrations at one of these sites were higher than the concentrations at a downtown site in a major city, despite its high traffic density. Regional nucleation and growth events were favored during intense solar irradiance and in less polluted cooler drier air. The most distinctive regional particle nucleation and growth event during the campaign was observed simultaneously at all five sites, which were up to 350 km apart. Although the ultrafine particle concentrations and size distributions generally were spatially heterogeneous across the region, a more uniform spatial distribution of UFP across the five areas was observed during this regional nucleation event. Thus, nucleation events can cover large regions, contributing to the burden of UFP in cities and potentially to the associated health impacts on urban populations. Local short-lived nucleation events at the three near-border sites during this summer three-week campaign were associated with high SO2, which likely originated from US and Canadian industrial sources. Hence, particle formation in southwestern Ontario appears to often be related to anthropogenic gaseous emissions but biogenic emissions at times also contribute. Longer-term studies are needed to help resolve the relative contributions of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions to nucleation and growth in this region.

  18. Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with

  19. Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Logan E; Lin, John C; Bowling, David R; Pataki, Diane E; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E; Stephens, Britton B; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R; Ehleringer, James R

    2018-03-20

    Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah's metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine "excess" CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2 , implying a nonlinear relationship with CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

  20. Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; Pataki, Diane E.; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J.; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E.; Stephens, Britton B.; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R.; Ehleringer, James R.

    2018-03-01

    Cities are concentrated areas of CO2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO2, implying a nonlinear relationship with CO2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

  1. Song convergence in multiple urban populations of silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potvin, Dominique A; Parris, Kirsten M

    2012-08-01

    Recent studies have revealed differences between urban and rural vocalizations of numerous bird species. These differences include frequency shifts, amplitude shifts, altered song speed, and selective meme use. If particular memes sung by urban populations are adapted to the urban soundscape, "urban-typical" calls, memes, or repertoires should be consistently used in multiple urban populations of the same species, regardless of geographic location. We tested whether songs or contact calls of silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis) might be subject to such convergent cultural evolution by comparing syllable repertoires of geographically dispersed urban and rural population pairs throughout southeastern Australia. Despite frequency and tempo differences between urban and rural calls, call repertoires were similar between habitat types. However, certain song syllables were used more frequently by birds from urban than rural populations. Partial redundancy analysis revealed that both geographic location and habitat characteristics were important predictors of syllable repertoire composition. These findings suggest convergent cultural evolution: urban populations modify both song and call syllables from their local repertoire in response to noise.

  2. Environmental degradation, energy consumption, population growth ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on the result, there is no evidence of unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions and energy consumption to economic growth and strong unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth to population growth was found. The long run and short run estimates ...

  3. Urban growth patterns in major Southeast Asian cities: Toward exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandapaka, Pradeep; Kamarajugedda, Shankar A.; Lo, Edmond Y. M.

    2017-04-01

    Southeast Asia (SEA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, with urban population percentage increasing from 32% in 1990 to 48% in 2015. It is projected that by the year 2040, urban regions in SEA account for 60% of its total population. The region is home to 600 million people, with many densely populated cities, including megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila. The region has more than 20,000 islands, and many cities lie on coastal low-lands and floodplains. These geographical characteristics together with the increasing population, infrastructure growth, and changing climate makes the region highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This study assessed urban growth dynamics in major (defined as population exceeding 1 million) SEA cities using remotely sensed night-time lights (NTL) data. A recently proposed brightness gradient approach was applied on 21 years (1992-2012) of NTL annual composites to derive core-urban (CU) and peri-urban (PU) regions within each city. The study also assessed the sensitivity of above extracted urban categories to different NTL thresholds. The temporal trends in CU and PU regions were quantified, and compared with trends in socio-economic indicators. The spatial expansion of CU and PU regions were found to depend on geographical constraints and socio-economic factors. Quantification of urban growth spatial-temporal patterns, as conducted here contributes towards the understanding of exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructures to natural hazards, as well as the evolving trends for assessment under projected urbanization conditions. This will underpin better risk assessment efforts for present and future planning.

  4. Learning from urban growth management in the Pacific Northwest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    2010-01-01

    The development of contemporary urban growth management in the Northwest United States began in the 1970s. The major tool is the implementation of urban containment boundaries, fostering growth within and limiting it outside the boundary. Additionally a set of policies reaching from densification...... Washington and Oregon as e.g. the municipalities in Denmark have strong control options in planning. However, especially the metropolitan co-operation and co-ordination instruments can certainly contribute to the discussion on urban growth management in Denmark and elsewhere....

  5. Growth of rural population in Punjab, 1971-81.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, M S

    1987-01-01

    Except for the decade 1941-1951, in which Punjab's population declined because of a huge exchange of population between India and Pakistan and a large loss of life, the decade 1971-1981 was the 1st decade since 1911 to experience a deceleration in the growth rate of the rural population of Punjab, India. The deceleration was due to out-migration to urban areas. The scheduled caste population increased 28.37% between 1971 and 1981, while the nonscheduled caste population increased by only 13.32%, which was considerably below the rate of natural increase. Nonscheduled castes had experienced substantial out-migration because of 1) improved transport and communication facilities which enabled them to move to urban centers; 2) mechanization of main farming operations and easy availability of migrant laborers which lessened the need for family labor; 3) the rise of a relatively mobile younger generation with a high literacy rate; 4) rapidly decreasing land holdings which strengthened the push factor in the countryside; and 5) rising aspirations, especially among the younger generation. In 1981, Sikhs constituted 71.3% of the rural population in Punjab, followed by Hindus (26.51%), Christians (1.25%), and Muslims (.89%). From 1971-1981, Muslims experienced the greatest increase (49.29%). Sikhs grew by 20.74% and Hindus by 9.02%. The Sikhs high growth rate was due to 1) a new technique for counting religious affiliation in which all members of a household are considered the same religion as the head of household and 2) conversion of Hindus to Sikhism. Hindus had a low growth rate because 1) the new method of counting religious affiliation and 2) rural-urban migration. The area with the lowest population increase resulted from industrialists and other nonagriculturists buying farmland, causing the agriculturists to move away to less desirable land. Conclusions are 1) the sharp rural-urban division along religious lines should be lessened, 2) Sikhs' lag in urbanization and

  6. Growth rate, population entropy, and perturbation theory.

    OpenAIRE

    Demetrius, L.

    1989-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the connection between two classes of population variables: measures of population growth rate—the Malthusian parameter, the net reproduction rate, the gross reproduction rate, and the mean life expectancy; and measures of demographic heterogeneity—population entropy. It is shown that the entropy functions predict the response of the growth rate parameters to perturbations in the age-specific fecundity and mortality schedule. These results are invoked to introduce...

  7. On population growth near protected areas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas N Joppa

    Full Text Available Protected areas are the first, and often only, line of defense in efforts to conserve biodiversity. They might be detrimental or beneficial to rural communities depending on how they alter economic opportunities and access to natural resources. As such, protected areas may attract or repel human settlement. Disproportionate increases in population growth near protected area boundaries may threaten their ability to conserve biodiversity.Using decadal population datasets, we analyze population growth across 45 countries and 304 protected areas. We find no evidence for population growth near protected areas to be greater than growth of rural areas in the same country. Furthermore, we argue that what growth does occur near protected areas likely results from a general expansion of nearby population centers.Our results contradict those from a recent study by Wittemyer et al., who claim overwhelming evidence for increased human population growth near protected areas. To understand the disagreement, we re-analyzed the protected areas in Wittemyer et al.'s paper. Their results are simply artifacts of mixing two incompatible datasets. Protected areas may experience unusual population pressures near their edges; indeed, individual case studies provide examples. There is no evidence, however, of a general pattern of disproportionate population growth near protected areas.

  8. Seasonal associations with urban light pollution for nocturnally migrating bird populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel; Buler, Jeffrey J; Farnsworth, Andrew; Cabrera-Cruz, Sergio A

    2017-11-01

    The spatial extent and intensity of artificial light at night (ALAN) has increased worldwide through the growth of urban environments. There is evidence that nocturnally migrating birds are attracted to ALAN, and there is evidence that nocturnally migrating bird populations are more likely to occur in urban areas during migration, especially in the autumn. Here, we test if urban sources of ALAN are responsible, at least in part, for these observed urban associations. We use weekly estimates of diurnal occurrence and relative abundance for 40 nocturnally migrating bird species that breed in forested environments in North America to assess how associations with distance to urban areas and ALAN are defined across the annual cycle. Migratory bird populations presented stronger than expected associations with shorter distances to urban areas during migration, and stronger than expected association with higher levels of ALAN outside and especially within urban areas during migration. These patterns were more pronounced during autumn migration, especially within urban areas. Outside of the two migration periods, migratory bird populations presented stronger than expected associations with longer distances to urban areas, especially during the nonbreeding season, and weaker than expected associations with the highest levels of ALAN outside and especially within urban areas. These findings suggest that ALAN is associated with higher levels of diurnal abundance along the boundaries and within the interior of urban areas during migration, especially in the autumn when juveniles are undertaking their first migration journey. These findings support the conclusion that urban sources of ALAN can broadly effect migratory behavior, emphasizing the need to better understand the implications of ALAN for migratory bird populations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Juvenile coho salmon growth and health in streams across an urbanization gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanjer, Andrew R.; Moran, Patrick W.; Larsen, Kimberly; Wetzel, Lisa; Hansen, Adam G.; Beauchamp, David A.

    2018-01-01

    Expanding human population and urbanization alters freshwater systems through structural changes to habitat, temperature effects from increased runoff and reduced canopy cover, altered flows, and increased toxicants. Current stream assessments stop short of measuring health or condition of species utilizing these freshwater habitats and fail to link specific stressors mechanistically to the health of organisms in the stream. Juvenile fish growth integrates both external and internal conditions providing a useful indicator of habitat quality and ecosystem health. Thus, there is a need to account for ecological and environmental influences on fish growth accurately. Bioenergetics models can simulate changes in growth and consumption in response to environmental conditions and food availability to account for interactions between an organism's environmental experience and utilization of available resources. The bioenergetics approach accounts for how thermal regime, food supply, and food quality affect fish growth. This study used a bioenergetics modeling approach to evaluate the environmental factors influencing juvenile coho salmon growth among ten Pacific Northwest streams spanning an urban gradient. Urban streams tended to be warmer, have earlier emergence dates and stronger early season growth. However, fish in urban streams experienced increased stress through lower growth efficiencies, especially later in the summer as temperatures warmed, with as much as a 16.6% reduction when compared to fish from other streams. Bioenergetics modeling successfully characterized salmonid growth in small perennial streams as part of a more extensive monitoring program and provides a powerful assessment tool for characterizing mixed life-stage specific responses in urban streams.

  10. Assessments of urban growth in the Tampa Bay watershed using remote sensing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, G.; Crane, M.

    2005-01-01

    Urban development has expanded rapidly in the Tampa Bay area of west-central Florida over the past century. A major effect associated with this population trend is transformation of the landscape from natural cover types to increasingly impervious urban land. This research utilizes an innovative approach for mapping urban extent and its changes through determining impervious surfaces from Landsat satellite remote sensing data. By 2002, areas with subpixel impervious surface greater than 10% accounted for approximately 1800 km2, or 27 percent of the total watershed area. The impervious surface area increases approximately three-fold from 1991 to 2002. The resulting imperviousness data are used with a defined suite of geospatial data sets to simulate historical urban development and predict future urban and suburban extent, density, and growth patterns using SLEUTH model. Also examined is the increasingly important influence that urbanization and its associated imperviousness extent have on the individual drainage basins of the Tampa Bay watershed.

  11. Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

    2018-05-01

    Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

  12. Remote sensing based approach for monitoring urban growth in Mexico city, Mexico: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obade, Vincent

    The world is experiencing a rapid rate of urban expansion, largely contributed by the population growth. Other factors supporting urban growth include the improved efficiency in the transportation sector and increasing dependence on cars as a means of transport. The problems attributed to the urban growth include: depletion of energy resources, water and air pollution; loss of landscapes and wildlife, loss of agricultural land, inadequate social security and lack of employment or underemployment. Aerial photography is one of the popular techniques for analyzing, planning and minimizing urbanization related problems. However, with the advances in space technology, satellite remote sensing is increasingly being utilized in the analysis and planning of the urban environment. This article outlines the strengths and limitations of potential remote sensing techniques for monitoring urban growth. The selected methods include: Principal component analysis, Maximum likelihood classification and "decision tree". The results indicate that the "classification tree" approach is the most promising for monitoring urban change, given the improved accuracy and smooth transition between the various land cover classes

  13. Population growth changes targets for immunization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuljapurkar, S; John, A M

    1995-01-01

    The faster the rate of population growth in developing countries, the less likely it is that current protocols for immunization against measles, rubella, and mumps will eradicate these childhood diseases. Standard protocols (timing, percentage of children to be immunized) do not take into account the rapid rates of population growth in developing countries (3.0% per year on average in sub-Saharan Africa and 2.0% in the rest of Africa, in Latin America, and in Asia, excluding China). Most public health planning models in this area were created based on static infant populations. The World Health Organization advises vaccinating at least 85% of children aged 6 to 9 months, a 3-month immunization window during which maternal antibodies are low (so the vaccination takes) and herd immunity is high (the probability that a child will encounter the disease is low because most children have been immunized). In practice, the immunization window in developing countries is 1 year or more. More susceptible children are present than assumed by the models. A larger number of susceptible babies are added each year during rapid population growth. As the age range for immunization widens, a higher percentage of children must be vaccinated to eradicate disease (chart). The proportion of each birth cohort that must be immunized rises as the population growth rate increases. At zero population growth, 94% must be vaccinated; at population growth rates greater than 3%, 98% must be vaccinated.

  14. Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

    2012-09-01

    House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients.

  15. Prevalent vegetation growth enhancement in urban environment

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Zhou, Decheng

    2016-01-01

    Cities experiencing elevated temperature (i.e., urban “heat island” warming), CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the projected average global change are regarded as the “harbingers” of the future global change. It is for this reason that cities have been regarded as ideal natural laboratories for global change studies and particularly valuable to elucidate the potential responses of other nonurban ecosystems to future climate and environmental changes. However, the impacts of urban...

  16. Growth in an English population from the Industrial Revolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mays, S; Brickley, M; Ives, R

    2008-05-01

    The rapid urbanization of the Industrial Revolution in 18th-19th century England presented new health challenges. Our aim is to investigate using English skeletal remains whether the living conditions for an urban working class group in the Industrial Revolution negatively impacted upon their skeletal growth compared with a population from a rural agrarian parish. The Industrial Revolution skeletal material is from St Martin's Churchyard, Birmingham (SMB), West Midlands. It dates primarily from the first half of the nineteenth century when Birmingham was a major manufacturing center. The rural group is from Wharram Percy (WP), North Yorkshire, and dates from 10th-19th century AD. The methodology involves plotting diaphyseal bone lengths versus dental age for subadults. No overall difference was found between the two populations in bone length-for-age among the 2- to 18-year cohort. However the younger parts of the SMB cohort were smaller than at WP; the opposite was true of the older parts of the cohort. Growth rate, as inferred from crosssectional data, appeared greater at SMB than at WP. The only result consistent with expectations is the larger bone dimensions in young children from WP, but this likely reflects prolonged breastfeeding at WP not differences in urban and rural environments. That the deleterious health effects that we know accompanied the major transition in human society from a rural agrarian to an urban industrialized living environment should be little manifest in skeletal endochondral growth data is discouraging for those who would use such methodology to monitor health in earlier populations. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  17. Designing Urban Experiences for a Suburban Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jantzen, Christian; Vetner, Mikael

    In the planning of Almere special attention was paid to establishing attractive  surroundings for modern middle class living. Accordingly the city was developed as a  network of suburbs with ample space for gardens, parks etc., and with an infrastructure aimed  at keeping different forms......, as a consequence of the governmental policy for  future regional development, agreed upon in the 1990es, Almere remains a kernel for future  growth. The population of the city is expected to extend further in the next decades. In 2030 it  should thus have 350.000 inhabitants, becoming by then the fifth largest......  dwellers, and also new segments of citizens with other preferences and more pronounced  expectations (esp. upper middle class, which at the time being are largely absent). To face  these challenges, the city council in 1995 decided to develop a new city centre, which should  enhance Almere’s regional...

  18. Impacts of urban growth and heat waves events on the urban heat island in Bucharest city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, Maria A.; Savastru, Roxana S.; Savastru, Dan M.; Dida, Adrian I.

    2016-10-01

    This study investigated the influences of urban growth and heat waves events on Urban Heat Island in relationship with several biophysical variables in Bucharest metropolitan area of Romania through satellite and in-situ monitoring data. Remote sensing data from Landsat TM/ETM+ and time series MODIS Terra/Aqua sensors have been used to assess urban land cover- temperature interactions over period between 2000 and 2016 years. Vegetation abundances and percent impervious surfaces were derived by means of linear spectral mixture model, and a method for effectively enhancing impervious surface has been developed to accurately examine the urban growth. The land surface temperature (Ts), a key parameter for urban thermal characteristics analysis, was also analyzed in relation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at city level. Based on these parameters, the urban growth, urban heat island effect (UHI) and the relationships of Ts to other biophysical parameters (surface albedo, precipitations, wind intensity and direction) have been analyzed. Results show that in the metropolitan area ratio of impervious surface in Bucharest increased significantly during investigated period, the intensity of urban heat island and heat wave events being most significant. The correlation analyses revealed that, at the pixel-scale, Ts possessed a strong positive correlation with percent impervious surfaces and negative correlation with vegetation abundances at the regional scale, respectively. This analysis provided an integrated research scheme and the findings can be very useful for urban ecosystem modeling.

  19. The end of world population growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, W; Sanderson, W; Scherbov, S

    2001-01-01

    There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this growth is likely to come to an end in the foreseeable future. Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting(1), here we show that there

  20. Growth pattern of preterm and IUGR babies in an urban slum of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The present study was carried out to analyze the growth pattern of preterm and IUGR infants from birth up to nine months of age. A longitudinal study was conducted in an urban slum of Chetla, Kolkata, India. Study population comprised of 36 low birth weight babies, out of which 13 were preterms and rest 23 were IUGR ...

  1. Urban Growth Modelling with Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression. Case Study: Sanandaj City, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SASSAN MOHAMMADY

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities have shown remarkable growth due to attraction, economic, social and facilities centralization in the past few decades. Population and urban expansion especially in developing countries, led to lack of resources, land use change from appropriate agricultural land to urban land use and marginalization. Under these circumstances, land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Different approaches have been attempted in urban expansion modelling. Artificial Neural network (ANN models are among knowledge-based models which have been used for urban growth modelling. ANNs are powerful tools that use a machine learning approach to quantify and model complex behaviour and patterns. In this research, ANN and logistic regression have been employed for interpreting urban growth modelling. Our case study is Sanandaj city and we used Landsat TM and ETM+ imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006. The dataset used includes distance to main roads, distance to the residence region, elevation, slope, and distance to green space. Percent Area Match (PAM obtained from modelling of these changes with ANN is equal to 90.47% and the accuracy achieved for urban growth modelling with Logistic Regression (LR is equal to 88.91%. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit for ANN method were 91.33% and 59.07% and then for LR were 90.84% and 57.07%, respectively.

  2. POPULATION MOBILITY CHARACTERISTIC: NOTES FROM THE URBAN-URBAN INTERACTION IN SEMARANG METROPOLITAN REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARDHOTILLAH Santi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The rapid growth of cities is characterized by the "pressure" in the form of increasingly dense urban areas, slums, traffic congestion, unemployment in the cities, and the number of illegal housing in the suburbs. This issue demonstrates the need for a balance between urban and rural areas. The balance is obtained through the interaction, and the interaction there is a process of "transfer" in the form of the human population, natural resources, and other supporting components. This view of the phenomenon makes many researchers conducting various studies in the context of the interaction between rural and urban. Furthermore, the study of the interaction of cities such as Salatiga and Semarang are in fact joined in the same region, KSN Kedungsepur. Semarang and surrounding developments as Semarang Metropolitan Region (SMR are the main attraction for the people who are around Semarang that caused an increase in the spatial interactions between Semarang and surrounding areas. From some areas belonging to KSN Kedungsepur, there are only two areas with the status of the city of Semarang city as a centre of KSN and Salatiga. This becomes interesting, unique conditions for studying the phenomenon under study is the interaction of the cities. The method used in this research was a quantitative method with descriptive analysis. Data was collected through a questionnaire survey technique primary by taking a random sample of migrants from Salatiga City and studied at the city of Semarang. The results of the study there were four mobility characteristics formed between Salatiga and Semarang, namely, commuting-boarding, boarding-commuting, boarding and boarding-permanent.

  3. Population Growth Types in India, 1961-71

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakravarti, A. K.

    1976-01-01

    An effective means of cartographic representation of India's population growth and its spatial characteristics is the focus of this paper. A population growth index and population growth types are discussed. (Author/ND)

  4. Simulating urban growth by emphasis on connective routes network (case study: Bojnourd city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Saadat Novin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Development of urban construction and ever-increasing growth of population lead to landuse changes especially in agricultural lands, which play an important role in providing human food. According to this issue, a proper landuse planning is required to protecting and preserving the valuable agricultural lands and environment, in today’s world. The prediction of urban growth can help in understanding the potential impacts on a region’s water resource, economy and people. One of the effective parameters in development of cities is connective routes network and their different types and qualities that play an important role in decreasing or increasing the growth of the city. On the other hand, the type of the connective routes network is an important factor for the speed and quality of development. In this paper, two different scenarios were used to simulate landuse changes and analyzing their results. In first scenario, modeling is based on the effective parameters in urban growth without classification of connective routes network. In the second scenario, effective parameters in urban growth were considered and connective routes were classified in 6 different classes with different weights in order to examine their effect on urban development. Simulation of landuse has been carried out for 2020–2050. The results clearly showed the effect of the connective routes network classification in output maps so that the effect of the first and second main routes network in development, is conspicuous.

  5. Curbing population growth in Republic of Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo-hyun, S

    1983-01-26

    The population of Korea is expected to increase by another 1/4 of the current population by the year 2000 if the government family planning program is successful. Aggravating Korea's demographic situation is the worldwide phenomenon of urban congestion. According to official statistics, Seoul's population increased from only 1 million in 1953 to 8.5 million in 1980, the latest year for which figures are available. While Seoul's population alone accounts for 22.3% of the total population, that of the greater Seoul area comprises 13,542,000 people or 35.5% of Korea's population. Most of the country's best institutions of higher learning are concentrated in Seoul, and in 1979 Seoul accounted for nearly half (47.7%) of the nation's college and graduate students. Seoul is also the center of the country's political, economic and cultural life and provides better employment opportunities than elsewhere in the country. The exodus of young people from rural areas and the growing census figures have triggered fears that the subsequently reduced agricultural productivity would result in a food supply crisis. In an attempt to remedy the demographic disparity between urban and rural areas, the government initiated a 10-year program in 1982 to promote jobs and improve medicare and the educational system in provincial cities. The plan encourages the establishment of factories and other auxiliary facilities outside the Seoul area that are necessary to support the 1988 Seoul Olympics. The program's success remains in question as it requires consistent, determined, and well coordinated efforts on the part of policy makers to curb the historical trend which has been gaining momentum over the past 100 years. 2 approaches have been adopted in the government's efforts to integrate population dynamics into the development process, overseas migration, and planned parenthood. Despite the 1981 liberalization of overseas travel for Koreans, Korean migration overseas is not expected to grow

  6. Urban growth and water access in sub-Saharan Africa: Progress, challenges, and emerging research directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dos Santos, S; Adams, E A; Neville, G; Wada, Y; de Sherbinin, A; Mullin Bernhardt, E; Adamo, S B

    2017-12-31

    For the next decade, the global water crisis remains the risk of highest concern, and ranks ahead of climate change, extreme weather events, food crises and social instability. Across the globe, nearly one in ten people is without access to an improved drinking water source. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the most affected, having disproportionately more of the global population without access to clean water than other major regions. Population growth, changing lifestyles, increasing pollution and accelerating urbanization will continue to widen the gap between the demand for water and available supply especially in urban areas, and disproportionately affect informal settlements, where the majority of SSA's urban population resides. Distribution and allocation of water will be affected by climate-induced water stresses, poor institutions, ineffective governance, and weak political will to address scarcity and mediate uncertainties in future supply. While attempts have been made by many scientists to examine different dimensions of water scarcity and urban population dynamics, there are few comprehensive reviews, especially focused on the particular situation in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper contributes to interdisciplinary understanding of urban water supply by distilling and integrating relevant empirical knowledge on urban dynamics and water issues in SSA, focusing on progress made and associated challenges. It then points out future research directions including the need to understand how alternatives to centralized water policies may help deliver sustainable water supply to cities and informal settlements in the region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Assessing the Effect of Spatial Proximity on Urban Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Gomes

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC reacts to demographic pressures, economic trends, or improved transport networks. Urban growth with implications on LUCC patterns can be measured using a diversity of methods. Our study derives from Tobler’s first law of geography: ‘everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant ones’. We identified and measured the influence of neighbouring distance on urban growth from the edge of existing urban areas. For that, we have developed a method, built using the NetLogo software tool, which we called Land-use chAnge and Neighbouring Distance (LAND. We selected Torres Vedras (Portugal to conduct our case study due to its increasing urban development in the past few years. The periods of analysis were 1995–2010, 1995–2007, and 2007–2010. The results have shown the influence and the effect of strong spatial correlation between the proximity of existing artificial surfaces and the emergence of new ones. The understanding of the patterns of urban growth is helpful to plan forward land developments. This method can be used to write guidelines for decision makers to monitor urban expansion and define spatial planning priorities.

  8. Tracking urban activity growth globally with big location data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daggitt, Matthew L; Noulas, Anastasios; Shaw, Blake; Mascolo, Cecilia

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, the world has experienced rates of urban growth unparalleled in any other period of history and this growth is shaping the environment in which an increasing proportion of us live. In this paper, we use a longitudinal dataset from Foursquare, a location-based social network, to analyse urban growth across 100 major cities worldwide. Initially, we explore how urban growth differs in cities across the world. We show that there exists a strong spatial correlation, with nearby pairs of cities more likely to share similar growth profiles than remote pairs of cities. Subsequently, we investigate how growth varies inside cities and demonstrate that, given the existing local density of places, higher-than-expected growth is highly localized while lower-than-expected growth is more diffuse. Finally, we attempt to use the dataset to characterize competition between new and existing venues. By defining a measure based on the change in throughput of a venue before and after the opening of a new nearby venue, we demonstrate which venue types have a positive effect on venues of the same type and which have a negative effect. For example, our analysis confirms the hypothesis that there is large degree of competition between bookstores, in the sense that existing bookstores normally experience a notable drop in footfall after a new bookstore opens nearby. Other place types, such as museums, are shown to have a cooperative effect and their presence fosters higher traffic volumes to nearby places of the same type.

  9. Economic analyses of rapid population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsall, N

    1989-01-01

    "Discussion of the macroeconomic consequences of rapid population growth is organized into three schools: pessimists, optimists, and the recent revisionists. For the revisionists, differing views are presented about the pervasiveness and relevance of market failures, such as the negative externalities of childbearing, and about the ability of families and institutions to adjust rapidly to changes brought on by rapid population growth. A welfare economics approach is used to review the merits of various public policies to reduce fertility, including public financing of family planning services and taxes and incentives associated with childbearing." The focus is on developing countries. excerpt

  10. Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient

    OpenAIRE

    Vangestel, C; Mergeay, Joachim; Dawson, D. A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

    2012-01-01

    House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierar...

  11. Conceptualizing Astronomical Distances for Urban Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popinchalk, Mark; Olson, Kristen; Ingber, Jenny; O'Brien, Mariel

    2017-01-01

    Students living in urban environments may have a washed-out night sky, but their enthusiasm for astronomy can still shine bright. As an educator, it can sometimes be a challenge to see the opportunities afforded by city living to the teaching of astronomy; however, several benefits can be identified. For example, the intrinsic understanding children have of the distances and scales involved in their everyday life is enhanced when they live in a regimented urban structure. This existing understanding of scale is critical to building a foundation for later conceptualizing of the universe.Leveraging the assets of New York City and the resources found in the American Museum of Natural History, The Science and Nature Program offers students (PreK through 8th grade) robust science learning experiences. To address concepts important for studying astronomy, we present a novel twist on the classic lesson “Earth as a Peppercorn,” by scaling the solar system to the size of New York City. Using local landmarks and their distance in relation to the Museum to represent the planets, students can use their prior knowledge of their surroundings to appreciate the impressive scale of our neighborhood in space in the context of their own neighborhoods. We correlate the activity with NGSS standards, present preliminary feedback on it’s success, and discuss the opportunities to apply a similar model lesson to other astronomical systems.

  12. Urban sprawl and growth management - drivers, impacts and responses in selected European and US cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2016-01-01

    Urban growth management has become a common term to circumscribe strategies and tools to regulate urban land use in metropolitan areas. It is particularly used to counteract negative impacts of urban sprawl but also to frame future urban development. We discuss recent challenges of urban growth...... in 6 European and 2 US American city-regions. The paper compares the urban development focusing on a quantification of drivers and effects of urban growth and a qualitative analysis of the applied urban growth management tools. We build our analysis on findings from the EU-FP6 project PLUREL...

  13. Urban Growth Dynamics in Perth, Western Australia: Using Applied Remote Sensing for Sustainable Future Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew MacLachlan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Earth observation data can provide valuable assessments for monitoring the spatial extent of (unsustainable urban growth of the world’s cities to better inform planning policy in reducing associated economic, social and environmental costs. Western Australia has witnessed rapid economic expansion since the turn of the century founded upon extensive natural resource extraction. Thus, Perth, the state capital of Western Australia, has encountered significant population and urban growth in response to the booming state economy. However, the recent economic slowdown resulted in the largest decrease in natural resource values that Western Australia has ever experienced. Here, we present multi-temporal urban expansion statistics from 1990 to 2015 for Perth, derived from Landsat imagery. Current urban estimates used for future development plans and progress monitoring of infill and density targets are based upon aggregated census data and metrics unrepresentative of actual land cover change, underestimating overall urban area. Earth observation provides a temporally consistent methodology, identifying areal urban area at higher spatial and temporal resolution than current estimates. Our results indicate that the spatial extent of the Perth Metropolitan Region has increased 45% between 1990 and 2015, over 320 km2. We highlight the applicability of earth observation data in accurately quantifying urban area for sustainable targeted planning practices.

  14. Econometric studies of urban population density: a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcdonald, J F

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents the 1st reasonably comprehensive survey of empirical research of urban population densities since the publication of the book by Edmonston in 1975. The survey summarizes contributions to empirical knowledge that have been made since 1975 and points toward possible areas for additional research. The paper also provides a brief interpretative intellectual history of the topic. It begins with a personal overview of research in the field. The next section discusses econometric issues that arise in the estimation of population density functions in which density is a function only of a distance to the central business district of the urban area. Section 4 summarizes the studies of a single urban area that went beyond the estimation of simple distance-density functions, and Section 5 discusses studies that sought to explain the variations across urban areas in population density patterns. McDonald refers to the standard theory of urban population density throughout the paper. This basic model is presented in the textbook by Mills and Hamilton and it is assumed that the reader is familiar with the model.

  15. Fractal dimension evolution and spatial replacement dynamics of urban growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yanguang

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The fractal dimension growth can be modeled by Boltzmann’s equation. ► Boltzmann’s model suggests urban spatial replacement dynamics. ► If the rate of urban growth is too high, periodic oscillations or chaos will arise. ► Chaos is associated with fractals by the fractal dimension evolution model. ► The fractal dimension of urban form implies the space-filling ratio of a city. - Abstract: This paper presents a new perspective of looking at the relation between fractals and chaos by means of cities. Especially, a principle of space filling and spatial replacement is proposed to interpret the fractal dimension of urban form. The fractal dimension evolution of urban growth can be empirically modeled with Boltzmann’s equation. For the normalized data, Boltzmann’s equation is just equivalent to the logistic function. The logistic equation can be transformed into the well-known 1-dimensional logistic map, which is based on a 2-dimensional map suggesting spatial replacement dynamics of city development. The 2-dimensional recurrence relations can be employed to generate the nonlinear dynamical behaviors such as bifurcation and chaos. A discovery is thus made in this article that, for the fractal dimension growth following the logistic curve, the normalized dimension value is the ratio of space filling. If the rate of spatial replacement (urban growth) is too high, the periodic oscillations and chaos will arise. The spatial replacement dynamics can be extended to general replacement dynamics, and bifurcation and chaos mirror a process of complex replacement.

  16. Environmental vs Demographic Stochasticity in Population Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Braumann, C. A.

    2010-01-01

    Compares the effect on population growth of envinonmental stochasticity (random environmental variations described by stochastic differential equations) with demographic stochasticity (random variations in births and deaths described by branching processes and birth-and-death processes), in the density-independent and the density-dependent cases.

  17. Exile and demographic population growth in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevanović Radoslav

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The data of the 2002 population census on refugee population are analyzed in this paper with a basic aim to determine the significance (contribution of refugee corpus in demographic development of the Republic of Serbia. By analyzing the data, it has been determined that the refugee corpus does not significantly differ from the domicile population in the basic, above all demographic and other qualitative characteristics. The differences which can be noticed with certain (primarily socio-economic characteristics, due to the proportionally small participation of refugee persons in relation to the total (domicile population, could not significantly influence the total demographic, socio-economic and other characteristics of the population of central Serbia and Vojvodina. The most significant contribution of refugee (classifying the refugee corpus in the country's total population is reflected in the mitigation of the depopulation trend, namely population growth, not only both micro-entities, but also lower administrative-territorial entities (districts depending on the enumerated refugee population in them. However, population projections indicate that by the middle of this century (2050 the positive effects of the basically larger number of inhabitants will be lost caused by the inflow of refugee population.

  18. Computer simulation of population dynamics inside the urban environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreev, A. S.; Inovenkov, I. N.; Echkina, E. Yu.; Nefedov, V. V.; Ponomarenko, L. S.; Tikhomirov, V. V.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper using a mathematical model of the so-called “space-dynamic” approach we investigate the problem of development and temporal dynamics of different urban population groups. For simplicity we consider an interaction of only two population groups inside a single urban area with axial symmetry. This problem can be described qualitatively by a system of two non-stationary nonlinear differential equations of the diffusion type with boundary conditions of the third type. The results of numerical simulations show that with a suitable choice of the diffusion coefficients and interaction functions between different population groups we can receive different scenarios of population dynamics: from complete displacement of one population group by another (originally more “aggressive”) to the “peaceful” situation of co-existence of them together.

  19. Social policy and population growth in South-East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You Poh Seng Rao, B; Shantakumar, G

    1974-01-01

    Social and population policies are considered for the 10 countries comprising Southeast Asia--Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, North Vietnam, and South Vietnam. All but Singapore have high fertility rates and Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos and the two Vietnams have high mortality rates also. Government expenditures for education and social security systems is expanding throughout the region and it is hoped that their continued growth will contribute substantially to the effective implementation of population policies. Population policies in the 5 countries which have them are discussed. These are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It is noted, however, that declaration of policy is but the first step. Strategies and programs differ from one country to the next and depend very much on the stage of development, level of literacy, degree of urbanization, and other factors. Family planning activities generally are endogenous to urban social systems but exogenous to rural social systems. Thus, the rural elite has a large role to play in making population policies an integral part of rural life. The possibility is considered of developing workable incentive packages integrating health, education, and social security benefits with suitable emphasis on fertility reduction.

  20. On the theory of global population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kapitza, Sergei P

    2010-01-01

    Ours is an epoch of global demographic revolution, a time of a rapid transition from explosive population growth to a low reproduction level. This, possibly the most momentous change ever witnessed by humankind has, first and foremost, important implications for the dynamics of population. But it also affects billions of people in all aspects of their lives, and it is for this reason that demographic processes have grown into a vast problem, both globally and in Russia. Their fundamental understanding will to a large extent impact the present, the short-term future following the current critical epoch, the stable and uniform global development and its priorities, and indeed global security. Quantitative treatment of historical processes is reached using the phenomenological theory of mankind's population growth. This theory relies on the concepts and methods of physics and its conclusions should take into account the ideas of economics and genetics. (interdisciplinary physics)

  1. An investigation of the role of China's urban population on coal consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michieka, Nyakundi M.; Fletcher, Jerald J.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the causal relationship between urban population, real GDP, electricity production and coal consumption in China for the period 1971–2009. Using a vector autoregression framework and a modified version of the Granger (1969) causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (J. Econ. 66 (1995) 225), the results suggest that there is causality running from GDP to coal consumption. The variance decomposition analysis report that urban population and coal affect electricity production variability over the forecast period. We also find that increasing urban population may negatively affect China's GDP over time. Policy measures aimed at influencing GDP could ultimately affect coal consumption. - Highlights: ► We find Granger Causality running from GDP to coal consumption. ► China can mitigate the adverse environmental effects of coal by altering GDP path. ► We find Granger Causality running from urbanization to electricity production. ► China needs to find other sources of energy to cater for growing electricity demand. ► Increasing urban population may slow economic growth due to overcrowding in cities.

  2. Overview of urban Growth Simulation: With examples from different cities

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Waldeck, L

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This presentation provides an overview of Urban Growth Simulation as a risk free means of assessing the future outcome of major policy and investment decisions with some examples of scenarios that were simulated in different South African cities....

  3. The population conundrums and some implications for urban development in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrić Jasna

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Population development may reveal either a potential or constraint on functional labour markets and spatial development of the territory in concern. The first results of the 2011 Census in Serbia depict a rather bleak demographic situation, which is only the continuation of population trends from the late 20th and beginning of the 21st century, substantially fuelled by dynamic political and socioeconomic processes featuring Serbia in the past few decades. The focus is on demographic changes in relation to three correlated aspects: 1 intensive ageing process; 2 depopulation and negative natural growth; and 3 migratory movements - population exodus. This paper addresses in particular the spatial consequences and institutional aspects of recent demographic changes and their reflection on urban areas in Serbia. In the past, population movements from rural to urban areas used to colour much of the migratory balance map of the country, however this situation changed due to exhaustion of the ‘traditional’ demographic reservoirs. Still, urban primacy of the capital city Belgrade has been even intensified with the recent demographic movements, or more precisely, a tissue of the two largest cities in relative proximity - Belgrade and Novi Sad is hypertrophied in a demographic sense. Other urban settlements in Serbia, especially the smaller towns, which are numerous but demographically shrinking, have not been empowered enough to substantiate better links with smaller and larger settlements within urban-rural interface, and their role has been challenged in that respect. Demographic changes, which affect urban growth or decline, are largely to do with border effects, economic and social gaps, educational opportunities, and search of certain ‘urban lifestyles’. The latter is particularly stressed regarding the process of ‘second demographic transition’ which encompassed Serbia and is manifested by changes in the family domain, viz. partnership

  4. Impact of demographic policy on population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podyashchikh, P

    1968-01-01

    Various bourgeois theories, including the reactionary Malthusianism and its variants, challenge the Marxist-Leninist revolutionary theory on the growth of population. Bourgeois science maintains that unchanging biological laws of proliferation form the foundation of social life. Malthus, in his "An Essay on the Principle of Population," contends that population increases in a geometric rate, while means of subsistence tend to increase only in an arithmetic rate: neither the way of production nor social conditions but this law of nature in control of proliferation had been the cause of overpopulation, which again leads to misery, hunger, and unemployment. From this follows the possible conclusion that the working classes should be concerned not about how to change the social order but how to reduce the number of childbirths. Progressive science views the laws of social life in a totally different way. Marxism-Leninism teaches that population size, despite the markedly important role played by it in historical progress, fails to represent that main force of social progress which determines the mode of production and of the distribution of material goods, but just the reverse: the mode of production determines the growth of population, the changes in its density and composition. Marxism-Leninism teaches that each historical stage of production (slavery, feudalism, capitalism) has its own special, historically valid demographic law. Bourgeois science maintains that humankind faces an absolute overpopulation caused by the means of production lagging behind the growth of population. Actually this is only a relative overpopulation due to the fact that capitalistic production is subjected to the interests of increasing capitalistic profit and not to those of meeting the demands of population. In socialist countries, production is incessantly developing and expanding, and employment of the entire productive population is ensured. Consequently, the problem of relative

  5. Regional assessment of urban impacts on landcover and open space finds a smart urban growth policy performs little better than business as usual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, James H; Santos, Maria J; Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H

    2013-01-01

    Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region's ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km² in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km² (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km² (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km² of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km² to 2239 km² (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km², under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas.

  6. Comparison of customised growth charts v. standard population

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pregnant diabetic population using population-based growth charts and customised growth charts. Methods. ... Of the patients, 44 had type 1, 66 type 2 and 173 gestational diabetes. The growth of .... with diabetic ketoacidosis, of whom one.

  7. Endogenous population growth may imply chaos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prskawetz, A; Feichtinger, G

    1995-01-01

    The authors consider a discrete-time neoclassical growth model with an endogenous rate of population growth. The resulting one-dimensional map for the capital intensity has a tilted z-shape. Using the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems, they obtain numerical results on the qualitative behavior of time paths for changing parameter values. Besides stable and periodic solutions, erratic time paths may result. In particular, myopic and far-sighted economies--assumed to be characterized by low and high savings rate respectively--are characterized by stable per capita capital stocks, while solutions with chaotic windows exist between these two extremes.

  8. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  9. A study of dynamic econometric relationship between urbanization and service industries growth in china

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Congjun Cheng

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The paper is going to analyze that there are dynamic quantitative relationships between Chinese urbanization and service industry.Design/methodology/approach: According to the index number of value-added of service industry and town population/ total population ratio during the year of 1978 to 2012 in China, the paper is designed with models which are analyzed by ADF test, co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test, finally get the conclusion.Findings: The paper achieves the two conclusions, one is that urbanization is the important power of service industry’s growth; the other is that the level of urbanization improves the level of service industry recently.Originality/value: Chinese urbanization and service industry have close relationship, and they also have dynamic changes. The paper studies their dynamic changes through collecting a lot of data from the year 1978 to 2010 and developing models to make quantitative analysis, for example, tables and quotations in the paper are the best proof. At last, the paper also puts forward some suggestions after get the conclusion that Chinese urbanization is the motive power to the growth of service industry.

  10. Population pressure and health risks in urban market environment: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population pressure and health risks in urban market environment: a study of Bodija market, Ibadan, Nigeria. ... International Journal of Development and Management Review ... This study was directed at permanent sellers in Bodija Market, (men and women) and people who frequent the market to make purchases.

  11. Living with infertility : Experiences among urban slum populations in Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Papreen, N; Sabin, K; Begum, L; Ahsan, SK; Baqui, AH

    This paper explores the perceived causes of infertility, treatment-seeking for infertility and the consequences of childlessness, particularly for women, among a predominantly Muslim population in urban slums of Dhaka in Bangladesh. In-depth interviews were conducted with 60 women and GO men

  12. Impact of vegetation growth on urban surface temperature distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buyadi, S N A; Mohd, W M N W; Misni, A

    2014-01-01

    Earlier studies have indicated that, the temperature distribution in the urban area is significantly warmer than its surrounding suburban areas. The process of urbanization has created urban heat island (UHI). As a city expands, trees are cut down to accommodate commercial development, industrial areas, roads, and suburban growth. Trees or green areas normally play a vital role in mitigating the UHI effects especially in regulating high temperature in saturated urban areas. This study attempts to assess the effects of vegetation growth on land surface temperature (LST) distribution in urban areas. An area within the City of Shah Alam, Selangor has been selected as the study area. Land use/land cover and LST maps of two different dates are generated from Landsat 5 TM images of the year 1991 and 2009. Only five major land cover classes are considered in this study. Mono-window algorithm is used to generate the LST maps. Landsat 5 TM images are also used to generate the NDVI maps. Results from this study have shown that there are significant land use changes within the study area. Although the conversion of green areas into residential and commercial areas significantly increase the LST, matured trees will help to mitigate the effects of UHI

  13. Modeling urban growth by the use of a multiobjective optimization approach: environmental and economic issues for the Yangtze watershed, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenting; Wang, Haijun; Han, Fengxiang; Gao, Juan; Nguyen, Thuminh; Chen, Yarong; Huang, Bo; Zhan, F Benjamin; Zhou, Lequn; Hong, Song

    2014-11-01

    Urban growth is an unavoidable process caused by economic development and population growth. Traditional urban growth models represent the future urban growth pattern by repeating the historical urban growth regulations, which can lead to a lot of environmental problems. The Yangtze watershed is the largest and the most prosperous economic area in China, and it has been suffering from rapid urban growth from the 1970s. With the built-up area increasing from 23,238 to 31,054 km(2) during the period from 1980 to 2005, the watershed has suffered from serious nonpoint source (NPS) pollution problems, which have been mainly caused by the rapid urban growth. To protect the environment and at the same time maintain the economic development, a multiobjective optimization (MOP) is proposed to tradeoff the multiple objectives during the urban growth process of the Yangtze watershed. In particular, the four objectives of minimization of NPS pollution, maximization of GDP value, minimization of the spatial incompatibility between the land uses, and minimization of the cost of land-use change are considered by the MOP approach. Conventionally, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed to search the Pareto solution set. In our MOP approach, a two-dimensional GA, rather than the traditional one-dimensional GA, is employed to assist with the search for the spatial optimization solution, where the land-use cells in the two-dimensional space act as genes in the GA. Furthermore, to confirm the superiority of the MOP approach over the traditional prediction approaches, a widely used urban growth prediction model, cellular automata (CA), is also carried out to allow a comparison with the Pareto solution of MOP. The results indicate that the MOP approach can make a tradeoff between the multiple objectives and can achieve an optimal urban growth pattern for Yangtze watershed, while the CA prediction model just represents the historical urban growth pattern as the future growth pattern

  14. Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Population Estimates, Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), Alpha Version

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Estimates consists of country-level estimates of urban, rural and total population and land area country-wide and...

  15. Population growth and food supply in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerman, J; Cochrane, S H

    1982-09-01

    It is argued in this article that sub-Saharan Africa, given its present institutions and endowments of capital and technology, is already dangerously close to overpopulation. The rapid growth of its population projected for the next decades will greatly increase human misery and depress economic development. Specifically, rapid population growth will have disastrous effects on the region's ability to increase exports and provide people with food. There must be a search for new ways in which these effects could be mitigated. In sub-Saharan Africa fertility either continues to be very high or is increasing, in part due to some decline in traditional practices that reduce fertility, such as prolonged breastfeeding. This situation and the expectation of declining mortality imply that African population growth may increase further. Currently, population in sub-Saharan Africa is about half that of India and a third of China. There are 2 main reasons why reduced fertility in the next few decades is unlikely in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole: Africa has low literacy, high infant and child mortality, and low urbanization; and average African fertility rates may even increase for the next 20 years or so. The question that arises is what are the implications of continuing and rapid population growth for the African food supply. The region's cereal production is largely restricted to 4 grains, i.e., millet, sorghum, maize, and rice. The volume of grain production is less, by weight, than 60% of the production of roots and tubers. There are 2 main differences between the output of these crops in sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world: yields/hectare are lower in Africa than in elsewhere; and yields have generally been decreasing or largely constant in Africa. The low productivity has several causes. Today, population pressure has brought diminishing returns to traditional agriculture in much of the Sahel and the savanna, in parts of East Africa, Southern Africa, and parts

  16. Six decades of urban growth using remote sensing and GIS in the city of Bandar Abbas, Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dadras, Mohsen; Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

    2014-01-01

    Bandar Abbas is the capital city of Hormozgan province, is the south of Iran. The city has witnessed rapid growth in the last three decades, mostly because of its economic, commercial and social attractions. However, forms and operations of urban sprawl may vary in important manners according to determine geographical and historical characteristics, and these difference need to be reviewed with creation geodatabase of spatial and attribute data during past periods until now of urban formation and expansion. We implemented this research to understand Bandar Abbas city growth dynamic during last six decades using aerial photo, Remote Sensing (RS) data and Geographical Information System (GIS), to investigate its sprawl for the during six decades and to prepare a basis for urban planning and management. We calibrated it with geospatial data derived from a time series of aerial photos and satellite images. Treated remote sensing data covering the six decades were used to calculate land use/cover and urban growth. The application of classification techniques to the remote sensing data enabled the extraction of eight main types of land use: agricultural, barren, coastal, hole, river, rocky hill, urban, and built-up. Growth was calculated through Shannon's entropy model. The urbanized area increased from 403.77 ha to 4959.59 ha from 1956 to 2012, a rate almost five times that of the population growth observed in the same period. Such findings make the case of Bandar Abbas important for several reasons. First, Bandar Abbas has undergone a rapid increase in urban sprawl according to urban growth indicators. Second, the urban sprawl quickly grew from medium-sized to large a process considered inappropriate according to physical and structural limitations on urban growth. Lastly, the excessive extension of the built-up boundary in the city resulted in the loss of coastal land and open space, two main sources of tourist attraction and economic sustainable development

  17. Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximate factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, R P

    1989-01-01

    This philosophical review of 2 arguments about responsibility for and solutions to environmental degradation concludes that both sides are correct: the ultimate and the proximal causes. Ultimate causes of pollution are defined as the technology responsible for a given type of pollution, such as burning fossil fuel; proximate causes are defined as situation-specific factors confounding the problem, such as population density or rate of growth. Commoner and others argue that developed countries with low or negative population growth rates are responsible for 80% of world pollution, primarily in polluting technologies such as automobiles, power generation, plastics, pesticides, toxic wastes, garbage, warfaring, and nuclear weapons wastes. Distortionary policies also contribute; examples are agricultural trade protection, land mismanagement, urban bias in expenditures, and institutional rigidity., Poor nations are responsible for very little pollution because poverty allows little waste or expenditures for polluting, synthetic technologies. The proximal causes of pollution include numbers and rate of growth of populations responsible for the pollution. Since change in the ultimate cause of pollution remains out of reach, altering the numbers of polluters can make a difference. Predictions are made for proportions of the world's total waste production, assuming current 1.6 tons/capita for developed countries and 0.17 tons/capita for developing countries. If developing countries grow at current rates and become more wealthy, they will be emitting half the world's waste by 2025. ON the other hand, unsustainable population growth goes along with inadequate investment in human capital: education, health, employment, infrastructure. The solution is to improve farming technologies in the 117 non-self-sufficient countries, fund development in the most unsustainable enclaves of growing countries, break institutionalized socio-political rigidity in these enclaves, and focus on

  18. Land Cover Change and Remote Sensing in the Classroom: An Exercise to Study Urban Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delahunty, Tina; Lewis-Gonzales, Sarah; Phelps, Jack; Sawicki, Ben; Roberts, Charles; Carpenter, Penny

    2012-01-01

    The processes and implications of urban growth are studied in a variety of disciplines as urban growth affects both the physical and human landscape. Remote sensing methods provide ways to visualize and mathematically represent urban growth; and resultant land cover change data enable both quantitative and qualitative analysis. This article helps…

  19. Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Population and Land Area Estimates, Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Population and Land Area Estimates, Version 2 data set consists of country-level estimates of urban population,...

  20. Population ageing alongside health care spending growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakovljević Mihajlo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Silver Tsunami or population ageing has become a globally widespread phenomenon. The purpose of this review is to observe its dynamics and consequences from a local Balkan perspective. The main drivers of this unique demographic evolution are extended longevity, improved early childhood survival, absorption of women into the labor markets, and consequences of sexual revolution leading to falling female fertility. This process lasting well over a century is taking its toll on contemporary societies. Major side effects are shrinking young labor force and growing pool of elderly and retired citizens in many countries. This equation tends to worsen further in the future threatening long-term financial sustainability of public social and health insurance funds. Notable health expenditure growth, accelerating worldwide since the 1960s, is to a large degree attributable to ageing itself. Growing share of senior citizens increases demand for medical services and costs of health care provision. Home-based care provided by the family caregivers presents another important reality putting a huge burden on modern communities. Serbs are no exception in this landscape. Historical demographic evolution of this nation gives a clear evidence of advanced and accelerated ageing, which is well documented in post-World War II era. This synthesis of rich published evidence shows clear upward parallel trend between the pace of population aging and the growth of health expenditure. National authorities shall be forced to consider reform of the current health care financing pattern inherited from the demographic growth era. This might be the only way to smooth out the impact of population ageing on the financial sustainability of the health system and long-term medical care in Serbia. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. OI 175014

  1. URBAN GROWTH AND WATER QUALITY IN THIMPHU, BHUTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandu Giri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Detailed study was undertaken in 2008 and 2009 on assessment of water quality of River Wang Chhu which flows through Thimphu urban area, the capital city of Bhutan. The water samples were examined at upstream of urban area, within the urban area and its downstream. The water quality was analyzed by studying the physico-chemical, biological and benthic macro-invertebrates. The water quality data obtained during present study are discussed in relation to land use/land cover changes (LULC and various ongoing human activities at upstream, within the each activity areas and it’s downstream. Analyses of satellite imagery of 1990 and 2008 using GIS revealed that over a period of eighteen years the forest, scrub and agricultural areas have decreased whereas urban area and road network have increased considerably. The forest cover, agriculture area and scrub decreased from 43.3% to 42.57%, 6.88% to 5.33% and 42.55% to 29.42%, respectively. The LULC changes effect water quality in many ways. The water temperature, pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, turbidity, nitrate, phosphate, chloride, total coliform, and biological oxygen demand were lower at upstream and higher in urban area. On the other hand dissolved oxygen was found higher at upstream and lower in urban area. The pollution sensitive benthic macro- invertebrates population were dominant at upstream sampling sites whereas pollution tolerant benthic macro-invertebrates were found abundant in urban area and its immediate downstream. The rapid development of urban infrastructure in Thimphu city may be posing serious threats to water regime in terms of its quality. Though the deterioration of water quality is restricted to a few localized areas, the trend is serious and needs proper attention of policy planners and decision makers. Proper treatment of effluents from urban areas is urgently needed to reduce water pollution in such affected areas to check further deterioration of water quality

  2. URBAN GROWTH AND WATER QUALITY IN THIMPHU, BHUTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandu Giri

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Detailed study was undertaken in 2008 and 2009 on assessment of water quality of River Wang Chhu which flows through Thimphu urban area, the capital city of Bhutan. The water samples were examined at upstream of urban area, within the urban area and its downstream. The water samples were analyzed by studying the physico-chemical, biological and benthic macro-invertebrates. The water quality data obtained during present study are discussed in relation to land use/land cover changes(LULC and various ongoing human activities at upstream, within the each activity areas and it’s downstream. Analyses of satellite imagery of 1990 and 2008 using GIS revealed that over a period of eighteen years the forest, scrub and agricultural areas have decreased whereas urban area and road network have increased considerably. The forest cover, agriculture area and scrub decreased from 43.3% to 42.57%, 6.88% to 5.33% and 42.55% to 29.42%, respectively. The LULC changes effect water quality in many ways. The water temperature, pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, turbidity, nitrate, phosphate, chloride, total coliform, and biological oxygen demand were lower at upstream and higher in urban area. On the other hand dissolved oxygen was found higher at upstream and lower in urban area. The pollution sensitive benthic macro-invertebrates population were dominant at upstream sampling sites whereas pollution tolerant benthic macro-invertebrates were found abundant in urban area and its immediate downstream. The rapid development of urban infrastructure in Thimphu city may be posing serious threats to water regime in terms of its quality. Though the deterioration of water quality is restricted to a few localized areas, the trend is serious and needs proper attention of policy planners and decision makers. Proper treatment of effluents from urban areas is urgently needed to reduce water pollution in such affected areas to check further deterioration of water quality

  3. [Urban and population development of the city of Puebla and its metropolitan area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbosa Prieto, A

    1991-12-01

    Metropolitanization has been considered an important problem of regional development in developing countries. Attitudes toward the metropolis have been ambivalent in Latin America. On the 1 hand the metropolis is viewed as an obstacle to development that absorbs resources from the zone of influence and incurs high social costs of urbanization, but on the hand it is also viewed as a form of achieving levels of economic efficiency comparable to those of developed countries. Metropolitan areas should not be viewed as isolated, but rather as important points of demographic and manpower attraction, poles of economic growth and technological and cultural innovation. "Urban areas" and "metropolitan zones" are distinct ways of defining and delimiting urban phenomena. Although there is no consensus as to the exact definitions of these 2 urban units, it is generally accepted that the urban area is the city itself as well as the contiguous built up area reaching in all directions to the onset of nonurban land uses such as forests territorial extension that includes the politico-administrative units with urban characteristics such as work places and residences for nonagricultural workers, and that maintain constant and intense socioeconomic interrelations with the central city. The process of urban planning in the metropolitan zone of Puebla, Mexico, began in institutional form in 1980 with master plans for the population centers of Puebla, Amozoc, San Andres and San Pedro Cholula, and Zacatelco in the state of Tlaxcala. In 1987., an attempt was made by the governments of the states of Puebla and Tlaxcala to develop a plan for the metropolitan zone as a single unit. Population growth was greater within the city of Puebla than in the metropolitan zone from 1960-80, but after 1980 growth in the outlying areas exceeded that in the center city. The population density of the city of Puebla declined from 160/hectare in 1950 to 76/hectare in 1990, the result of progressive dispersion

  4. Urban growth and landscape connectivity threats assessment at Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkl, Ryan; Norman, Laura M.; Mitchell, David; Feller, Mark R.; Smith, Garrett; Wilson, Natalie R.

    2018-01-01

    Urban and exurban expansion results in habitat and biodiversity loss globally. We hypothesize that a coupled-model approach could connect urban planning for future cities with landscape ecology to consider wildland habitat connectivity. Our work combines urban growth simulations with models of wildlife corridors to examine how species will be impacted by development to test this hypothesis. We leverage a land use change model (SLEUTH) with structural and functional landscape-connectivity modeling techniques to ascertain the spatial extent and locations of connectivity related threats to a national park in southern Arizona, USA, and describe how protected areas might be impacted by urban expansion. Results of projected growth significantly altered structural connectivity (80%) when compared to current (baseline) corridor conditions. Moreover, projected growth impacted functional connectivity differently amongst species, indicating resilience of some species and near-complete displacement of others. We propose that implementing a geospatial-design-based model will allow for a better understanding of the impacts management decisions have on wildlife populations. The application provides the potential to understand both human and environmental impacts of land-system dynamics, critical for long-term sustainability.

  5. Urban vegetation and thermal patterns following city growth in different socio-economic contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dronova, I.; Clinton, N.; Yang, J.; Radke, J.; Marx, S. S.; Gong, P.

    2015-12-01

    Urban expansion accompanied by losses of vegetated spaces and their ecological services raises significant concerns about the future of humans in metropolitan "habitats". Despite recent growth of urban studies globally, it is still not well understood how environmental effects of urbanization vary with the rate and socioeconomic context of development. Our study hypothesized that with urban development, spatial patterns of surface thermal properties and green plant cover would shift towards higher occurrence of relatively warmer and less vegetated spaces such as built-up areas, followed by losses of greener and cooler areas such as urban forests, and that these shifts would be more pronounced with higher rate of economic and/or population growth. To test these ideas, we compared 1992-2011 changes in remotely sensed patterns of green vegetation and surface temperature in three example cities that experienced peripheral growth under contrasting socio-economic context - Dallas, TX, USA, Beijing, China and Kyiv, Ukraine. To assess their transformation, we proposed a metric of thermal-vegetation angle (TVA) estimated from per-pixel proxies of vegetation greenness and surface temperature from Landsat satellite data and examined changes in TVA distributions within each city's core and two decadal zones of peripheral sprawl delineated from nighttime satellite data. We found that higher economic and population growth were coupled with more pronounced changes in TVA distributions, and more urbanized zones often exhibited higher frequencies of warmer, less green than average TVA values with novel patterns such as "cooler" clusters of building shadows. Although greener and cooler spaces generally diminished with development, they remained relatively prevalent in low-density residential areas of Dallas and peripheral zones of Kyiv with exurban subsistence farming. Overall, results indicate that the effects of modified green space and thermal patterns within growing cities

  6. Quantifying urban growth patterns in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes and time series spatial metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Duong H; Lepczyk, Christopher A; Miura, Tomoaki; Fox, Jefferson M

    2018-01-01

    Urbanization has been driven by various social, economic, and political factors around the world for centuries. Because urbanization continues unabated in many places, it is crucial to understand patterns of urbanization and their potential ecological and environmental impacts. Given this need, the objectives of our study were to quantify urban growth rates, growth modes, and resultant changes in the landscape pattern of urbanization in Hanoi, Vietnam from 1993 to 2010 and to evaluate the extent to which the process of urban growth in Hanoi conformed to the diffusion-coalescence theory. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamics of the built-up land in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes, spatial metrics, and a gradient approach. Urbanization was most pronounced in the periods of 2001-2006 and 2006-2010 at a distance of 10 to 35 km around the urban center. Over the 17 year period urban expansion in Hanoi was dominated by infilling and edge expansion growth modes. Our findings support the diffusion-coalescence theory of urbanization. The shift of the urban growth areas over time and the dynamic nature of the spatial metrics revealed important information about our understanding of the urban growth process and cycle. Furthermore, our findings can be used to evaluate urban planning policies and aid in urbanization issues in rapidly urbanizing countries.

  7. Quantifying urban growth patterns in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes and time series spatial metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepczyk, Christopher A.; Miura, Tomoaki; Fox, Jefferson M.

    2018-01-01

    Urbanization has been driven by various social, economic, and political factors around the world for centuries. Because urbanization continues unabated in many places, it is crucial to understand patterns of urbanization and their potential ecological and environmental impacts. Given this need, the objectives of our study were to quantify urban growth rates, growth modes, and resultant changes in the landscape pattern of urbanization in Hanoi, Vietnam from 1993 to 2010 and to evaluate the extent to which the process of urban growth in Hanoi conformed to the diffusion-coalescence theory. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamics of the built-up land in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes, spatial metrics, and a gradient approach. Urbanization was most pronounced in the periods of 2001–2006 and 2006–2010 at a distance of 10 to 35 km around the urban center. Over the 17 year period urban expansion in Hanoi was dominated by infilling and edge expansion growth modes. Our findings support the diffusion-coalescence theory of urbanization. The shift of the urban growth areas over time and the dynamic nature of the spatial metrics revealed important information about our understanding of the urban growth process and cycle. Furthermore, our findings can be used to evaluate urban planning policies and aid in urbanization issues in rapidly urbanizing countries. PMID:29734346

  8. Population growth, demographic change, and cultural landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodgate, G; Sage, C

    1994-01-01

    The inclusion of both ecological and socioeconomic components within landscapes makes possible the perception of the hierarchical character of landscape organization. A research approach is needed to conceptualize cultural landscapes as the product of interaction between society and nature. Richard Norgaard's 1984 paper on coevolutionary agricultural development attempts to meet this challenge. Coevolution is the interactive synthesis of natural and social mechanisms of change that characterize the relationship between social systems and ecosystems. The relationship between population, consumption, and environmental changes is complex. Currently industrialized countries present the biggest threat to global environmental resources. The issue of carrying capacity is the corollary of population and the environment. It is primarily the technological factor rather than population that needs to be controlled. The relationship between rich and poor countries is determined by superior economic power. An analysis of landscape change is made, tracing the coevolution of society and environment from the end of the feudal era and making comparisons with continental Europe. Over the years since 1945 the need to realize potential economies of scale has resulted in a wholesale loss of woodlands, hedgerows, and small ponds in the UK. In a global context the likely impacts of population growth and demographic change on landscapes will be influenced by such socioeconomic factors as technology and affluence; policies that ignore cause and effect; and the traditional tendency to treat the environment as a waste repository and a supply depot.

  9. Social Profile Of The Aged In An Urban Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J A Khan

    1997-08-01

    Full Text Available Research Problem: What is the socio-demographic profile of urban aged population in Aligarh city.Objectives: i To describe the socio-demographic profile of the aged population in an urban area, ii To describe the attitude of these people.Design:Cross-sectional study.Setting : Urban areas of Aligarh city.Participants : 3951 persons aged 60 years and aboveStudy Variables: Socio-demographic characteristics, attitudes.Statistical Analysis : By proportions.Result: 15% of the total estimated elderly population covering all 10 sectors of Aligarh city was studied. The majority ofthe elderly (72.4% belonged to 60-70 years age group. Most of them (77.2% were illiterate, 61.6% belonged to lower socio-economic classes (IV & V, 78.1 % lived in joint families. 39.6% of the aged felt that they were not being given due respect by family members. Nearly half of them had an indifferent or unhappy attitude towards life.Conclusion: The socio-demographic characteristics of the aged are important and must be kept in mind for developing programs to assist them in living as respectful senior citizens.

  10. Population growth and the decline of natural Southern yellow pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David B. South; Edward R. Buckner

    2004-01-01

    Population growth has created social and economic pressures that affect the sustainability of naturally regenerated southern yellow pine forests. Major causes of this decline include (1) a shift in public attitudes regarding woods burning (from one favoring it to one that favors fire suppression) and (2) an increase in land values (especially near urban centers). The...

  11. Procedural modeling of urban layout: population, land use, and road network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lyu, X.; Han, Q.; de Vries, B.

    2017-01-01

    This paper introduces an urban simulation system generating urban layouts with population, road network and land use layers. The desired urban spatial structure is obtained by generating a population map based on population density models. The road network is generated at two spatial levels

  12. Rapid Urban Growth and Land Use Patterns in Doha, Qatar: Opportunities for Sustainability?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivek Shandas

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Amidst chaotic growth of Asian cities, the expansion of urban infrastructure in the Middle East's Gulf region is arguably outpacing any other region on the planet. Yet we have a limited understanding of the types of urban form or the extent to which this rapid urbanization is giving rise to sustainable patterns of growth. We ask, what is the pace and character of urban growth in one Middle East city, Doha, Qatar. By using remotely sensed imagery from 1987 to 2013, we examined the pace, quality, and characteristics of urban growth. We further use the results to create a typology of urban growth that integrates historical and spatial dimensions for describing the qualitative aspects of growth and its implications on regional landscapes. Our results suggest that Doha is creating development patterns similar to many Western cities, and that planners may need to consider whether the emerging urban form offers opportunities for more sustainable growth in the future.

  13. Population, internal migration, and economic growth: an empirical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreland, R S

    1982-01-01

    effect of a population's age structure on savings rather than assuming a particular direction as Coale-Hoover and Simon do in their models, it was found that a higher proportion of children compete with savings in agriculture but complement savings in industrial areas. This was consistent with the economic value of children in agricultural and nonagricultural regions of less developed countries. The estimated production functions showed that marginal products of labor were considerably higher in agriculture than in nonagriculture. As with other simulation models, the effect of reducing fertility was to accelerate income growth. Reductions in rural fertility were more equitable and raised the overall level of per capita income more than similar efforts directed to urban areas only.

  14. Urban growth in American cities : glimpses of U.S. urbanization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auch, Roger; Taylor, Janis; Acevedo, William

    2004-01-01

    The Earth's surface is changing rapidly. Changes are local, regional, national, and even global in scope. Some changes have natural causes, such as earthquakes or drought. Other changes, such as urban expansion, agricultural intensification, resource extraction, and water resources development, are examples of human-induced change that have significant impact upon people, the economy, and resources. The consequences that result from these changes are often dramatic and widespread (Buchanan, Acevedo, and Zirbes, 2002)It is the role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide useful and relevant scientific information both to the agencies within the Department of the Interior and to the Nation in general. In an effort to comply with this task, USGS scientists are assessing the status of, and the trends in, the Nation's land surface. This assessment provides useful information for regional and national land use decisionmaking. This knowledge can be used to deal with issues of significance to the Nation, such as quality-of-life, ecology of urban environments, ecosystem health, ecological integrity, water quality and quantity concerns, resource availability, vulnerability to natural hazards, safeguards to human health, air and land quality, and accessibility to scientific information. Results of these assessments can also be analyzed to reveal rates and trends in land use change. Results from urban growth studies provide a firm foundation for continuing research that explores the consequences of human modification of the landscape.The USGS seeks to illustrate and explain the spatial history of urban growth and corresponding land use change. Scientists are studying urban environments from a regional perspective and a time scale of decades to measure the changes that have occurred in order to help understand the impact of anticipated changes in the future.Within this booklet are pairs of images of selected urbanized regions from across the Nation. These image pairs

  15. Population Growth and Its Expression in Spatial Built-up Patterns: The Sana’a, Yemen Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunter Zeug

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In light of rapid global urbanisation, monitoring and mapping of urban and population growth is of great importance. Population growth in Sana’a was investigated for this reason. The capital of the Republic of Yemen is a rapidly growing middle sized city where the population doubles almost every ten years. Satellite data from four different sensors were used to explore urban growth in Sana’a between 1989 and 2007, assisted by topographic maps and cadastral vector data. The analysis was conducted by delineating the built-up areas from the various optical satellite data, applying a fuzzy-rule-based composition of anisotropic textural measures and interactive thresholding. The resulting datasets were used to analyse urban growth and changes in built-up density per district, qualitatively as well as quantitatively, using a geographic information system. The built-up area increased by 87 % between 1989 and 2007. Built-up density has increased in all areas, but particularly in the northern and southern suburban districts, also reflecting the natural barrier of surrounding mountain ranges. Based on long-term population figures, geometric population growth was assumed. This hypothesis was used together with census data for 1994 and 2004 to estimate population figures for 1989 and 2007, resulting in overall growth of about 240%. By joining population figures to district boundaries, the spatial patterns of population distribution and growth were examined. Further, urban built-up growth and population changes over time were brought into relation in order to investigate changes in population density per built-up area. Population densities increased in all districts, with the greatest density change in the peripheral areas towards the North. The results reflect the pressure on the city’s infrastructure and natural resources and could contribute to sustainable urban planning in the city of Sana’a.

  16. Variability in urban soils influences the health and growth of native tree seedlings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clara C. Pregitzer; Nancy F. Sonti; Richard A. Hallett

    2016-01-01

    Reforesting degraded urban landscapes is important due to the many benefits urban forests provide. Urban soils are highly variable, yet little is known about how this variability in urban soils influences tree seedling performance and survival. We conducted a greenhouse study to assess health, growth, and survival of four native tree species growing in native glacial...

  17. The impact of urbanization and population density on childhood Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence rates in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaria, Caroline W; Gilbert, Marius; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Linard, Catherine

    2017-01-26

    Although malaria has been traditionally regarded as less of a problem in urban areas compared to neighbouring rural areas, the risk of malaria infection continues to exist in densely populated, urban areas of Africa. Despite the recognition that urbanization influences the epidemiology of malaria, there is little consensus on urbanization relevant for malaria parasite mapping. Previous studies examining the relationship between urbanization and malaria transmission have used products defining urbanization at global/continental scales developed in the early 2000s, that overestimate actual urban extents while the population estimates are over 15 years old and estimated at administrative unit level. This study sought to discriminate an urbanization definition that is most relevant for malaria parasite mapping using individual level malaria infection data obtained from nationally representative household-based surveys. Boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to determine the effect of urbanization on malaria transmission and if this effect varied with urbanization definition. In addition, the most recent high resolution population distribution data was used to determine whether population density had significant effect on malaria parasite prevalence and if so, could population density replace urban classifications in modelling malaria transmission patterns. The risk of malaria infection was shown to decline from rural areas through peri-urban settlements to urban central areas. Population density was found to be an important predictor of malaria risk. The final boosted regression trees (BRT) model with urbanization and population density gave the best model fit (Tukey test p value <0.05) compared to the models with urbanization only. Given the challenges in uniformly classifying urban areas across different countries, population density provides a reliable metric to adjust for the patterns of malaria risk in densely populated urban areas. Future malaria risk

  18. Cardiovascular risk assessment between urban and rural population in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor Hassim, I; Norazman, M R; Diana, M; Khairul Hazdi, Y; Rosnah, I

    2016-12-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) caused significant burden to Malaysia as it accounted for 36% of total deaths. This study aims to evaluate the burden of cardiovascular risk factors among Malaysian adult and assess the difference between urban and rural population in the selected communities. This study is part of the ongoing Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) database, whereby the baseline data were collected since June 2008. CVD risk was measured using INTERHEART risk score which comprised of eleven risk factors i.e. age and gender, family history of heart attack, smoking status, exposure to second hand smoke, diabetes mellitus, hypertension status, waist-hip ratio, self-reported stress, depression, dietary habits and physical activity status. Majority of the studied participants had low cardiovascular risk (57%). Participants from rural area were generally older, had lower educational status, higher prevalence of smokers, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and more likely to be depressed. In comparison, urbanites had lower physical activities and more likely to be stressful. Mean INTERHEART score among rural participants were higher, especially for male, in comparison to urbanite (11.5±5.83 vs. 10.01±5.74, p<0.001). Contradict to common beliefs, participants in rural areas generally have higher cardiovascular risk factors compared to their urban counterparts. The rural population should be targeted for focused preventive interventions, taking account the socioeconomic and cultural context.

  19. Ecotypic differentiation between urban and rural populations of the grasshopper Chorthippus brunneus relative to climate and habitat fragmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    San Martin Y Gomez, Gilles; Van Dyck, Hans

    2012-05-01

    Urbanization alters environmental conditions in multiple ways and offers an ecological or evolutionary challenge for organisms to cope with. Urban areas typically have a warmer climate and strongly fragmented herbaceous vegetation; the urban landscape matrix is often assumed to be hostile for many organisms. Here, we addressed the issue of evolutionary differentiation between urban and rural populations of an ectotherm insect, the grasshopper Chorthippus brunneus. We compared mobility-related morphology and climate-related life history traits measured on the first generation offspring of grasshoppers from urban and rural populations reared in a common garden laboratory experiment. We predicted (1) the urban phenotype to be more mobile (i.e., lower mass allocation to the abdomen, longer relative femur and wing lengths) than the rural phenotype; (2) the urban phenotype to be more warm adapted (e.g., higher female body mass); and (3) further evidence of local adaptation in the form of significant interaction effects between landscape of origin and breeding temperature. Both males and females of urban origin had significantly longer relative femur and wing lengths and lower mass allocation to the abdomen (i.e., higher investment in thorax and flight muscles) relative to individuals of rural origin. The results were overall significant but small (2-4%). Body mass and larval growth rate were much higher (+10%) in females of urban origin. For the life history traits, we did not find evidence for significant interaction effects between the landscape of origin and the two breeding temperatures. Our results point to ecotypic differentiation with urbanization for mobility-related morphology and climate-related life history traits. We argue that the warmer urban environment has an indirect effect through longer growth season rather than direct effects on the development.

  20. Modeling Urban Collaborative Growth Dynamics Using a Multiscale Simulation Model for the Wuhan Urban Agglomeration Area, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Yu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban agglomeration has become the predominant form of urbanization in China. In this process, spatial interaction evidently played a significant role in promoting the collaborative development of these correlated cities. The traditional urban model’s focus on individual cities should be transformed to an urban system model. In this study, a multi-scale simulation model has been proposed to simulate the agglomeration development process of the Wuhan urban agglomeration area by embedding the multi-scale spatial interaction into the transition rule system of cellular automata (CA. A system dynamic model was used to predict the demand for new urban land at an aggregated urban agglomeration area scale. A data field approach was adopted to measuring the interaction of intercity at city scale. Neighborhood interaction was interpreted with a logistic regression method at the land parcel scale. Land use data from 1995, 2005, and 2015 were used to calibrate and evaluate the model. The simulation results show that there has been continuing urban growth in the Wuhan urban agglomeration area from 1995 to 2020. Although extension-sprawl was the predominant pattern of urban spatial expansion, the trend of extensive growth to intensive growth is clear during the entire period. The spatial interaction among these cities has been reinforced, which guided the collaborative development and formed the regional urban system network.

  1. Procedural modeling of urban layout: population, land use, and road network

    OpenAIRE

    Lyu, X.; Han, Q.; de Vries, B.

    2017-01-01

    This paper introduces an urban simulation system generating urban layouts with population, road network and land use layers. The desired urban spatial structure is obtained by generating a population map based on population density models. The road network is generated at two spatial levels corresponding to the road hierarchy. The land use allocation is based on the What If? allocation model. The expected results are urban layouts suitable for academic scenario analysis.

  2. HEALTH OF URBAN POPULATION IN MOSCOW AND BEIJING AGGLOMERETIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svetlana M. Malkhazova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results obtained under the joint Russian-Chinese RFBR project № 12-05-91175-ГФЕН_а aimed at assessment of the state of the environment and health of the population in urban areas in Russia and China. The paper presents the authors’ approach to a comprehensive evaluation of the impact of the environment on the populationhealth of urban agglomerations and a method of regional medico-geographical analysis. A series of analytical and synthetic maps was compiled and used for a comparative geographical analysis of medical and environmental situation in Moscow and Beijing – major metropolitan areas with different natural and socio-economic conditions. The paper discusses the influence of the environment on the state of public health and identifies the leading risk factors, both general and specific to each region.

  3. Prevalence of metabolic syndrome among an urban population in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaduka, Lydia U; Kombe, Yeri; Kenya, Eucharia; Kuria, Elizabeth; Bore, John K; Bukania, Zipporah N; Mwangi, Moses

    2012-04-01

    Developing countries are undergoing an epidemiologic transition accompanied by increasing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) linked to urbanization and lifestyle modifications. Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of CVD risk factors whose extent in Kenya remains unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and factors associated with its occurrence among an urban population in Kenya. This was a household cross-sectional survey comprising 539 adults (aged ≥18 years) living in Nairobi, drawn from 30 clusters across five socioeconomic classes. Measurements included waist circumference, HDL cholesterol, triacylglycerides (TAGs), fasting glucose, and blood pressure. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 34.6% and was higher in women than in men (40.2 vs. 29%; P Kenya. The Kenyan government needs to create awareness, develop prevention strategies, and strengthen the health care system to accommodate screening and management of CVDs.

  4. Dietary habits and growth: an urban/rural comparison in the Andean region of Apurimac, Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Andrissi

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The efficacy of interventions against children malnutrition crucially depends on a myriad of factors other than the simple food intake, that must be carefully studied in order to plan a balanced policy. The relation between dietary patterns and growth is at the very heart of the problem, especially in consideration of the fact that dietary pattern involves dimension other than pure caloric intake in its definition. In this work we investigated the relations between dietary pattern and growth comparing children from a rural and a urban area in Andean Peru, in terms of food habits and anthropometric variables to develop a model usable in context interventions against malnutrition. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A sample of 159 children (80 from urban, 79 from rural area, aged from 4 to 120 months (72.7 ± 37.5 SD was collected. The data were investigated by a multidimensional (principal component analysis followed by inferential approach analysis to correlate the different hidden dimensions of both anthropometric and dietary observables. The correlation between these dimensions (in the form of principal components were computed and contrasted with the effects of age and urban/rural environments. RESULTS: Caloric intake and growth were not linearly correlated in our data set. Moreover urban and rural environment were demonstrated to show very different patterns of both dietary and anthropometric variables pointing to the marked effect of dietary habits and demographic composition of the analyzed populations. The relation between malnutrition and overweight was at the same time demonstrated to follow a strict area dependent distribution. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: We gave a proof-of-concept of the non-linear character of the relation between malnutrition (in terms of caloric intake and growth, pointing to the need to calibrate interventions on food pattern and not only quantity to contrast malnutrition effects on growth. The education toward a

  5. Dietary habits and growth: an urban/rural comparison in the Andean region of Apurimac, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrissi, Laura; Mottini, Giovanni; Sebastiani, Valeria; Boldrini, Laura; Giuliani, Alessandro

    2013-01-01

    The efficacy of interventions against children malnutrition crucially depends on a myriad of factors other than the simple food intake, that must be carefully studied in order to plan a balanced policy. The relation between dietary patterns and growth is at the very heart of the problem, especially in consideration of the fact that dietary pattern involves dimension other than pure caloric intake in its definition. In this work we investigated the relations between dietary pattern and growth comparing children from a rural and a urban area in Andean Peru, in terms of food habits and anthropometric variables to develop a model usable in context interventions against malnutrition. A sample of 159 children (80 from urban, 79 from rural area), aged from 4 to 120 months (72.7 ± 37.5 SD) was collected. The data were investigated by a multidimensional (principal component analysis followed by inferential approach) analysis to correlate the different hidden dimensions of both anthropometric and dietary observables. The correlation between these dimensions (in the form of principal components) were computed and contrasted with the effects of age and urban/rural environments. Caloric intake and growth were not linearly correlated in our data set. Moreover urban and rural environment were demonstrated to show very different patterns of both dietary and anthropometric variables pointing to the marked effect of dietary habits and demographic composition of the analyzed populations. The relation between malnutrition and overweight was at the same time demonstrated to follow a strict area-dependent distribution. We gave a proof-of-concept of the non-linear character of the relation between malnutrition (in terms of caloric intake) and growth, pointing to the need to calibrate interventions on food pattern and not only quantity to contrast malnutrition effects on growth. The education toward a balanced diet must go hand-in-hand with the intervention on caloric intake in order to

  6. Impact of urban environmental pollution on growth, leaf damage, and chemical constituents of Warsaw urban trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldemar Chmielewski; Wojciech Dmuchowski; Stanislaw Suplat

    1998-01-01

    In the last 10 years, 3.5 percent of the tree population died annually in PolandÕs largest and most polluted cities, which is a problem of economic importance. Dieback of streetside trees in Warsaw is a long term process. It is an effect of biological reactions of trees to unfavorable conditions in the urban environment, particularly air and soil pollution and water...

  7. Modeling Urban Growth Spatial Dynamics: Case studies of Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchta, Katja; Abo El Wafa, Hany; Printz, Andreas; Pauleit, Stephan

    2013-04-01

    Rapid urbanization, and consequently, the dramatic spatial expansion of mostly informal urban areas increases the vulnerability of African cities to the effects of climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent flooding, droughts and heat waves. The EU FP 7 funded project CLUVA (Climate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, www.cluva.eu) aims to develop strategies for minimizing the risks of natural hazards caused by climate change and to improve the coping capacity of African cities. Green infrastructure may play a particular role in climate change adaptation by providing ecosystem services for flood protection, stormwater retention, heat island moderation and provision of food and fuel wood. In this context, a major challenge is to gain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the cities and how these impact on green infrastructure and hence their vulnerability. Urban growth scenarios for two African cities, namely Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, were developed based on a characterization of their urban morphology. A population growth driven - GIS based - disaggregation modeling approach was applied. Major impact factors influencing the urban dynamics were identified both from literature and interviews with local experts. Location based factors including proximity to road infrastructure and accessibility, and environmental factors including slope, surface and flood risk areas showed a particular impact on urban growth patterns. In Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam, population density scenarios were modeled comparing two housing development strategies. Results showed that a densification scenario significantly decreases the loss of agricultural and green areas such as forests, bushland and sports grounds. In Dar es Salaam, the scenario of planned new settlements with a population density of max. 350 persons per hectare would lead until 2025 to a loss of agricultural land (-10.1%) and green areas (-6.6%). On the other

  8. Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

    2013-04-01

    Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

  9. Four decades urban growth and land use change in Samara Russia through remote sensing and GIS techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boori, Mukesh Singh; Choudhary, Komal; Kupriyanov, Alexander; Kovelskiy, Viktor

    2015-12-01

    This study illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban growth and land use changes in Samara city, Russia from 1975 to 2015. Landsat satellite imageries of five different time periods from 1975 to 2015 were acquired and quantify the changes with the help of ArcGIS 10.1 Software. By applying classification methods to the satellite images four main types of land use were extracted: water, built-up, forest and grassland. Then, the area coverage for all the land use types at different points in time were measured and coupled with population data. The results demonstrate that, over the entire study period, population was increased from 1146 thousand people to 1244 thousand from 1975 to 1990 but later on first reduce and then increase again, now 1173 thousand population. Built-up area is also change according to population. The present study revealed an increase in built-up by 37.01% from 1975 to 1995, than reduce -88.83% till 2005 and an increase by 39.16% from 2005 to 2015, along with the increase in population, migration from rural areas owing to the economic growth and technological advantages associated with urbanization. Information on urban growth, land use and land cover change study is very useful to local government and urban planners for the betterment of future plans to sustainable development of the city.

  10. Construction of a new growth references for China based on urban Chinese children: comparison with the WHO growth standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zong, Xin-Nan; Li, Hui

    2013-01-01

    Growth references for Chinese children should be updated due to the positive secular growth trends and the progress of the smoothing techniques. Human growth differs among the various ethnic groups, so comparison of the China references with the WHO standards helps to understand such differences. The China references, including weight, length/height, head circumference, weight-for-length/height and body mass index (BMI) aged 0-18 years, were constructed based on 69,760 urban infants and preschool children under 7 years and 24,542 urban school children aged 6-20 years derived from two cross-sectional national surveys. The Cole's LMS method is employed for smoothing the growth curves. The merged data sets resulted in a smooth transition at age 6-7 years and continuity of curves from 0 to 18 years. Varying differences were found on the empirical standard deviation (SD) curves in each indicator at nearly all ages between China and WHO. The most noticeable differences occurred in genders, final height and boundary centiles curves. Chinese boys' weight is strikingly heavier than that of the WHO at age 6-10 years. The height is taller than that of the WHO for boys below 15 years and for girls below 13, but is significantly lower when boys over 15 years and girls over 13. BMI is generally higher than that of the WHO for boys at age 6-16 years but appreciably lower for girls at 3-18 years. The differences between China and WHO are mainly caused by the reference populations of different ethnic backgrounds. For practitioners, the choices of the standards/references depend on the population to be assessed and the purpose of the study. The new China references could be applied to facilitate the standardization assessment of growth and nutrition for Chinese children and adolescents in clinical pediatric and public health.

  11. Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

    2016-12-01

    Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than

  12. Population Growth and Poverty in the Developing World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsall, Nancy

    1980-01-01

    The link between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty which currently afflicts 780 million people in developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) is examined. As a result of rapid population growth, many countries suffer slow per capita income growth, a lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and…

  13. Rapid Population Growth-Cause or Result of Global Problems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Richard H.

    Explosive population growth is a symptom of the world's unjust and inequitable social, political, and economic conditions. The current rate of growth is staggering, particularly in the cities of the underdeveloped countries. While some progress has been made in slowing population growth, several factors still contribute to its momentum. One of…

  14. Urban Growth Modeling Using Anfis Algorithm: a Case Study for Sanandaj City, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pijanowski, B. C.

    2013-10-01

    Global urban population has increased from 22.9% in 1985 to 47% in 2010. In spite of the tendency for urbanization worldwide, only about 2% of Earth's land surface is covered by cities. Urban population in Iran is increasing due to social and economic development. The proportion of the population living in Iran urban areas has consistently increased from about 31% in 1956 to 68.4% in 2006. Migration of the rural population to cities and population growth in cities have caused many problems, such as irregular growth of cities, improper placement of infrastructure and urban services. Air and environmental pollution, resource degradation and insufficient infrastructure, are the results of poor urban planning that have negative impact on the environment or livelihoods of people living in cities. These issues are a consequence of improper land use planning. Models have been employed to assist in our understanding of relations between land use and its subsequent effects. Different models for urban growth modeling have been developed. Methods from computational intelligence have made great contributions in all specific application domains and hybrid algorithms research as a part of them has become a big trend in computational intelligence. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has the capability to deal with imprecise data by training, while fuzzy logic can deal with the uncertainty of human cognition. ANN learns from scratch by adjusting the interconnections between layers and Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) is a popular computing framework based on the concept of fuzzy set theory, fuzzy logic, and fuzzy reasoning. Fuzzy logic has many advantages such as flexibility and at the other sides, one of the biggest problems in fuzzy logic application is the location and shape and of membership function for each fuzzy variable which is generally being solved by trial and error method. In contrast, numerical computation and learning are the advantages of neural network, however, it is

  15. URBAN GROWTH MODELING USING ANFIS ALGORITHM: A CASE STUDY FOR SANANDAJ CITY, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mohammady

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Global urban population has increased from 22.9% in 1985 to 47% in 2010. In spite of the tendency for urbanization worldwide, only about 2% of Earth's land surface is covered by cities. Urban population in Iran is increasing due to social and economic development. The proportion of the population living in Iran urban areas has consistently increased from about 31% in 1956 to 68.4% in 2006. Migration of the rural population to cities and population growth in cities have caused many problems, such as irregular growth of cities, improper placement of infrastructure and urban services. Air and environmental pollution, resource degradation and insufficient infrastructure, are the results of poor urban planning that have negative impact on the environment or livelihoods of people living in cities. These issues are a consequence of improper land use planning. Models have been employed to assist in our understanding of relations between land use and its subsequent effects. Different models for urban growth modeling have been developed. Methods from computational intelligence have made great contributions in all specific application domains and hybrid algorithms research as a part of them has become a big trend in computational intelligence. Artificial Neural Network (ANN has the capability to deal with imprecise data by training, while fuzzy logic can deal with the uncertainty of human cognition. ANN learns from scratch by adjusting the interconnections between layers and Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS is a popular computing framework based on the concept of fuzzy set theory, fuzzy logic, and fuzzy reasoning. Fuzzy logic has many advantages such as flexibility and at the other sides, one of the biggest problems in fuzzy logic application is the location and shape and of membership function for each fuzzy variable which is generally being solved by trial and error method. In contrast, numerical computation and learning are the advantages of neural network

  16. [Population dynamics, urban structure, and production of living space in the metropolitan zone of Mexico City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schteingart, M

    1989-01-01

    "In this article, an attempt is made to account for certain trends in the growth and distribution of the population, and in the structuring of living space in the metropolitan zone of Mexico City.... Among the important conclusions of this essay are those having to do with the huge growth of some political-administrative units and the relation of this phenomenon to the practices followed by private realtors, often articulated with the policies and programs set by the State's housing agencies, as well as those that associate urban growth and expansion with the development of habitational spaces within the so-called 'formal' and 'informal' housing sectors." Data are from Mexican censuses and other official sources. (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

  17. Prevalence of primary glaucoma in an urban South Indian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Aby

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available Glaucoma is fast emerging as a major cause of blindness in India. In order to estimate the prevalence of primary open angle glaucoma (POAG and primary angle closure glaucoma (PACG in an urban South Indian population, we examined 972 individuals aged 30-60 years, chosen using a cluster sampling technique from 12 census blocks of Vellore town. They underwent a complete ocular examination, including applanation tonometry and gonioscopy, at the Medical College Hospital. Characteristic field defects on automated perimetry was a diagnostic requisite for POAG. Prevalence (95% CI of POAG, PACG, and ocular hypertension were 4.1 (0.08-8.1, 43.2 (30.14-56.3, and 30.8 (19.8-41.9 per 1,000, respectively. All the PACG cases detected were of the chronic type. Hitherto unavailable community-based information on primary glaucoma in our study population indicates that PACG is about five times as common as POAG.

  18. Implications of population growth for Nigeria's development | Fan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nigeria's population that was 16 million in 1911 is about 140 million today. Attention invariably turns to the implications of this growth to the qualities of life for her inhabitants. The paper notes that high birth rate, low death rate and migration are the sources of the high population growth in Nigeria. The population then ...

  19. Decomposing the causes of socioeconomic-related health inequality among urban and rural populations in China: a new decomposition approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Jiaoli; Coyte, Peter C; Zhao, Hongzhong

    2017-07-18

    In recent decades, China has experienced tremendous economic growth and also witnessed growing socioeconomic-related health inequality. The study aims to explore the potential causes of socioeconomic-related health inequality in urban and rural areas of China over the past two decades. This study used six waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) from 1991 to 2006. The recentered influence function (RIF) regression decomposition method was employed to decompose socioeconomic-related health inequality in China. Health status was derived from self-rated health (SRH) scores. The analyses were conducted on urban and rural samples separately. We found that the average level of health status declined from 1989 to 2006 for both urban and rural populations. Average health scores were greater for the rural population compared with those for the urban population. We also found that there exists pro-rich health inequality in China. While income and secondary education were the main factors to reduce health inequality, older people, unhealthy lifestyles and a poor home environment increased inequality. Health insurance had the opposite effects on health inequality for urban and rural populations, resulting in lower inequality for urban populations and higher inequality for their rural counterparts. These findings suggest that an effective way to reduce socioeconomic-related health inequality is not only to increase income and improve access to health care services, but also to focus on improvements in the lifestyles and the home environment. Specifically, for rural populations, it is particularly important to improve the design of health insurance and implement a more comprehensive insurance package that can effectively target the rural poor. Moreover, it is necessary to comprehensively promote the flush toilets and tap water in rural areas. For urban populations, in addition to promoting universal secondary education, healthy lifestyles should be promoted

  20. [Fifty years of population growth and absorbing manual labor in Brazil, 1950-2000].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, P D

    1986-01-01

    The economically active population has grown rapidly in Brazil, resulting either from population growth or increased female participation in the work force. This rhythm of growth will continue at least until the end of this century. The authors suggest that the impact of the recent decline in fertility will be moderate and will only affect the younger age groups. Despite the rapid growth of employment in the processing industry, the relative size of the so-called informal sector has remained stable since 1950. It is further predicted that, given the economically active population's rate of growth and the decrease in employment in agriculture, there will be a great demand for urban employment in the next 20 years.

  1. 1 2 POPULATION GROWTH AND THE DILEMMA OF RURAL LIFE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Ike

    The high as well as the unrestrained population growth rate of the country has, to a ... that it stimulates business and general economic growth cycles and therefore .... The privilege and opportunity of acquiring functional education, for instance ...

  2. A comparison of rural and urban rheumatoid arthritis populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, N; Steven, M

    2009-02-01

    There is evidence to suggest that remote populations have poorer clinical outcomes in certain disease processes such as asthma and cancer. This study looks to identify any disparities in the management of patients with rheumatoid arthritis in the context of rurality. A retrospective observational study was performed on all 1314 patients with a diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis who have been under the care of the principal rheumatologist at Raigmore Hospital, Inverness, between the years 1994 and 2004 inclusive. Rurality was defined according to the Scottish Household Survey. Populations were assessed in terms of age; sex; duration of diagnosis; number of years of Disease Modifying AntiRheumatic Drugs (DMARD) therapy, prednisolone use and the number of musculoskeletal practical interventions undertaken (eg joint aspiration or replacement). Two thirds of patients were considered rural dwellers. No significant difference was established between the populations with regards to management. DMARD therapy had been prescribed in 77% of rural patients vs 70% of their city counterparts for a mean 5.4 and 4.0 years respectively. The proportion of patients exposed to prednisolone therapy and who underwent musculoskeletal procedures were equivalent. Rural dwellers, with rheumatoid arthritis in the Highlands of Scotland, do not appear to be disadvantaged in regards to their disease management in comparison to the urban population.

  3. Adapting to Population Growth: The Evolutionary Alternative to Malthus

    OpenAIRE

    Axel Kristinsson; Árni Daníel Júlíusson

    2016-01-01

    A long-standing debate on the dynamics of population growth in human history has become polarized between a Malthusian stance and a Boserupian one. The former tends to view population growth as limited by carrying capacity, dependent on environment and technology, whereas the latter sees population growth itself as a major inducement to social, economic and technological developments. In this paper the authors experiment with approaching this debate by using recent developments in evolutionar...

  4. The Population Growth and Carrying Capacity in Semarang City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hariyanto; Hadi, Sudharto P.; Buchori, Imam

    2018-02-01

    Population growth and development of city activities take some lands to carry them. As a result, land use competition happens among persons, society or sector. Land necessity for settlement, industry, or sector has taken over farm land, therefore farm land has been converted intensively and massively. Chronologically, population growth will cause land necessity increase. Unproductive land, especially farm land will be converted. Furthermore, farm land conversion will cause carrying capacity change. Carrying capacity has certain bio capacity. With the population growth, it will increase resource consumption; on the other side, farm land conversion will decrease carrying capacity. The objective of the study is to know about the influence of population growth towards carrying capacity (bio capacity) in Semarang city. Land consumption per capita is indeed influenced by city population, the higher the population is, the lower the land consumption per capita. With the population growth, it will influence carrying capacity. Carrying capacity here is the ratio of area to population. Analytical descriptive method is applied in the study with all sub-districts in Semarang city as the analysis unit. Population here is sub-district area and population per sub-district in Semarang city. Population growth data period is from 2000 until 2015. Main variables of the study are area per sub-district, population, population growth, carrying capacity. Result of the study shows significant influence of carrying capacity decrease, especially some outskirts in Semarang city. This condition happens because the outskirts in Semarang city tend to have dense population growth. Range of carrying capacity in Semarang city is from 0,007 to 0,117 of 0 to 1. Almost all sub-districts in Semarang city show miserable condition, except Mijen and Tugu. The conclusion of the study is that population will decrease carrying capacity. Therefore, the government should control population growth by paying

  5. The temporal and spatial dynamics of income and population growth in Ohio, 1950-1990.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, C C

    1994-01-01

    "This paper focuses on spatial variation of growth within a state. Using Ohio as a case study, two hypotheses are extracted from the literature. First, the theories of polarization and polarization reversal suggest that in the old industrial core the leading sector role of manufacturing has diminished in old manufacturing poles, and that income growth trends differ substantially between these old poles and new centres of development. Second, the theories of suburbanization and migration reversals suggest that population growth is contingent upon level of urbanization, and that the relationship has changed drastically between the pre-1970s, 1970s, and post-1970s periods." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER) excerpt

  6. WHEN GROWTH IS NO LONGER THE NORM: TEACHING URBAN DESIGN IN A TIME OF TRANSFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujata Shetty

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Over the past few years, there has been increasing interest in cities that are rapidly losing population, so-called shrinking cities. This is becoming a global phenomenon, with shrinking cities found on every continent. The decline has been attributed variously to changing demographics, suburbanization, postsocialist transformation and deindustrialization. We are just beginning to develop approaches to dealing with shrinkage and its consequences – vacancy, abandonment, and limited public and private resources. However, there is currently little faith in the ability of design-related disciplines to deal with shrinking cities. Some authors argue that disciplines such as architecture, urban design and urban planning have always planned for growth and have reached their limits when dealing with shrinking cities (Oswalt, 2006. Still others suggest that restructuring should be seen as an opportunity (Vey, 2007. This paper challenges the first view and responds to the second by suggesting that design education can and must respond to these new realities. It critically examines a collaborative urban design studio that was part of an attempt to transform a part of a shrinking city in the American ‘rustbelt.’ The city, once a flourishing manufacturing center, is now facing steep economic decline along with the decline of the auto industry. It is also home to a university that is beginning efforts to revitalize neighborhoods adjacent to the campus. The studio, which brought together architecture and urban planning students from two different universities to work on a section of the city including the campus area, suggests possibilities for preparing students to work in an environment where economic growth is no longer the norm. The following lessons emerged: 1 In a shrinking city, urban designers may need to focus less on designing the solids and more on meeting the challenges of the voids. 2 In spite of urban design’s historical bias towards

  7. Cities as selective land predators? A lesson on urban growth, deregulated planning and sprawl containment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colantoni, Andrea; Grigoriadis, Efstathios; Sateriano, Adele; Venanzoni, Giuseppe; Salvati, Luca

    2016-03-01

    The present study investigates changes in the use of land caused by the expansion of an informal city in the Mediterranean region (Athens, Greece) and it proposes a simplified methodology to assess selective land take at the scale of municipalities. The amount of land take over twenty years (1987-2007) for cropland, sparsely vegetated areas and natural land was compared with the surface area of the respective class at the beginning of the study period (1987). Indicators of selective land take by class were correlated with socioeconomic indicators at the scale of municipalities to verify the influence of the local context and the impact of urban planning on land take processes. Evidence indicates that urban expansion into fringe land consumes primarily cropland and sparse vegetation in the case of the Athens' metropolitan region. Cropland and sparse vegetation were consumed proportionally more than the respective availability in 16 municipalities out of 60. Agricultural land take was positively correlated with population density and growth rate, rate of participation to the job market and road density. Sparse vegetation land take was observed in municipalities with predominance of high density settlements. As a result of second-home expansion in coastal municipalities, natural land was converted to urban use in proportion to the availability in the landscape. Urban planning seems to have a limited impact on selective land take. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Human Capital, Population Growth and Economic Development: Beyond Correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Rosenzweig, Mark R.

    1987-01-01

    Empirical evidence on three assertions commonly-made by population policy advocates about the relationships among population growth, human capital formation and economic development is discussed and evaluated in the light of economic-biological models of household behavior and of its relevance to population policy. The three assertions are that (a) population growth and human capital investments jointly reflect and respond to changes in the economic environment, (b) larger families directly i...

  9. Increasing STEM Competence in Urban, High Poverty Elementary School Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sueanne McKinney

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Enhancing STEM competence (e.g., interests, knowledge, skills, and dispositions among urban, high poverty, elementary school populations in the United States (U.S. is and remains a growing national concern, especially since Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM competence is and will continue to be a necessary requisite for gainful employment in the future, according to workforce development experts. In an attempt to address this gap, many urban elementary schools have begun to offer STEM-related programs to increase STEM learning at an early age. STEM competence (interest, knowledge, skills, and dispositions, however, remains low. This paper results in a matrix used to analyze children's fictional literary selections and a model that argues that elementary teachers, as the first point of contact with young students, can affect STEM competence. By adopting a more culturally responsive pedagogy that attends to the 21st Century Learning Skills and the Next Generation Science Standards, teachers can choose literature that serves to excite and reinforce STEM learning.

  10. Population structure of fishes from an urban stream

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naiara Zanatta

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to identify the population structure of the ichthyofauna in an urban stream within an environmental protection area in southern Brazil. Quarterly samplings were conducted between October 2009 and August 2010. Poecilia reticulata was the most abundant species, followed by Hypostomus ancistroides and Rhamdia quelen. It was found a higher proportion of adults instead of juveniles from P. reticulata and R. quelen populations, while the opposite was recorded for H. ancistroides. Sex ratio of 1:1 was found for H. ancistroides, but differed significantly for P. reticulata and R. quelen. Females of P. reticulata and R. quelen reached higher length than males in the smaller and higher length-classes, while H. ancistroides females were only longer in initial length-classes. It was recorded higher occurrence of mature and maturing individuals. Mature individuals of H. ancistroides were sampled in October, and P. reticulata and R. quelen throughout the sampling period. Despite adverse environmental conditions, the occurrence of juveniles indicates reproductive activity for these species. Population structure studies in degraded systems are urgent, since life-history features of species may suffer changes due to anthropic impacts. Providing such information contributes to decision making and management of degraded systems.

  11. Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Ping

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

  12. [Cities and oil. Historical and prospective aspects of the urban population of Venezuela].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papail, J; Picquet, M

    1989-01-01

    The authors present a historical overview of urbanization in Venezuela. The impact of the oil economy on population change and spatial distribution is emphasized. A typology of cities based on socioeconomic function and on a demographic classification of urban centers is devised. Future trends in urbanization are also considered. (SUMMARY IN ENG)

  13. Urban Teens: Trauma, Posttraumatic Growth, and Emotional Distress among Female Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ickovics, Jeanette R.; Meade, Christina S.; Kershaw, Trace S.; Milan, Stephanie; Lewis, Jessica B.; Ethier, Kathleen A.

    2006-01-01

    Urban teens face many traumas, with implications for potential growth and distress. This study examined traumatic events, posttraumatic growth, and emotional distress over 18 months among urban adolescent girls (N = 328). Objectives were to (a) describe types of traumatic events, (b) determine how type and timing of events relate to profiles of…

  14. [Employment and urban growth; an application of Czamanski's model to the Mexican case].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verduzco Chavez, B

    1991-01-01

    The author applies the 1964 model developed by Stanislaw Czamanski, based on theories of urban growth and industrial localization, to the analysis of urban growth in Mexico. "The advantages of this model in its application as a support instrument in the process of urban planning when the information available is incomplete are...discussed...." Census data for 44 cities in Mexico are used. (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

  15. Volatility and Growth in Populations of Rural Associations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wollebaek, Dag

    2010-01-01

    This article uses unique community-level data aggregated from censuses of associations to analyze growth and volatility in rural populations of grassroots associations. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) shows that the two main paths to growth were (1) centralization in polycephalous (multicentered) municipalities and (2) population growth…

  16. Beyond the Mean: Sensitivities of the Variance of Population Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotter, Meredith V; Krishna-Kumar, Siddharth; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    2013-03-01

    Populations in variable environments are described by both a mean growth rate and a variance of stochastic population growth. Increasing variance will increase the width of confidence bounds around estimates of population size, growth, probability of and time to quasi-extinction. However, traditional sensitivity analyses of stochastic matrix models only consider the sensitivity of the mean growth rate. We derive an exact method for calculating the sensitivity of the variance in population growth to changes in demographic parameters. Sensitivities of the variance also allow a new sensitivity calculation for the cumulative probability of quasi-extinction. We apply this new analysis tool to an empirical dataset on at-risk polar bears to demonstrate its utility in conservation biology We find that in many cases a change in life history parameters will increase both the mean and variance of population growth of polar bears. This counterintuitive behaviour of the variance complicates predictions about overall population impacts of management interventions. Sensitivity calculations for cumulative extinction risk factor in changes to both mean and variance, providing a highly useful quantitative tool for conservation management. The mean stochastic growth rate and its sensitivities do not fully describe the dynamics of population growth. The use of variance sensitivities gives a more complete understanding of population dynamics and facilitates the calculation of new sensitivities for extinction processes.

  17. Green sea turtle age, growth, population characteristics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Morphology, sex ratio, body condition, disease status, age structure, and growth patterns were characterized for 448 green sea turtles cold stunned in St. Joseph...

  18. Diabetes mellitus and impaired glucose tolerance in urban adult population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Rodrigues Júnior

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Estimating the prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT in the urban population aged between 30 and 69 years in the municipality of Campo Grande, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Methods: Population-based cross-sectional study conducted between October/2009 and February/2011. The investigation included the determination of fasting glucose and participants with blood glucose ≥ 200 mg/dL were considered diabetic. Nondiabetic patients, which showed blood glucose ≥ 100 mg/dL and < 200 mg/dL, underwent an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT to investigate whether they had DM or IGT. Results: 1.429 individuals participated in this investigation. The general prevalence, adjusted for sex and age, were: 12.3% for DM (95%CI: 10.5 to 13.9% and 7.1% for IGT (95%CI: 5.7 to 8.4%. There was a higher prevalence of DM with increasing age in people with low educational level, family history of diabetes, overweight, obesity and central obesity. Among diabetic patients (n = 195, 25% were unaware they had the disease and were diagnosed through investigation. Among patients who already knew they had DM (n = 146, 37% were unaware of the potential chronic complications. Conclusion: This study confirms the increased prevalence of DM in Brazil and emphasizes the need for early diagnosis, as well as the importance of strict adherence to medical treatment in order to prevent its much feared complications.

  19. Slow Growth and Urban Sprawl: Support for a New Regional Agenda?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gainsborough, Juliet F.

    2002-01-01

    Assessed the possibilities for coalition building around growth related concerns, exploring support for slowing growth in New York City and Los Angeles. Analyzed data from surveys of urban and suburban dwellers regarding support for growth control measures. Suburbanites were much more receptive to slow growth policies than were urbanites, though…

  20. Intimate Partner Violence among General and Urban Poor Populations in Kathmandu, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oshiro, Azusa; Poudyal, Amod K.; Poudel, Krishna C.; Jimba, Masamine; Hokama, Tomiko

    2011-01-01

    Comparative studies are lacking on intimate partner violence (IPV) between urban poor and general populations. The objective of this study is to identify the prevalence and risk factors of physical IPV among the general and poor populations in urban Nepal. A cross-sectional study was conducted by structured questionnaire interview. Participants…

  1. The effects of ageing and urbanisation on China's future rural and urban populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart

    2017-01-01

    This paper estimates China's future population and labour force by developing a novel forecasting model for population. It combines information about age-specific parameters on fertility and mortality for both rural and urban areas using information about rural-urban migration and the transformation

  2. Soil science, population growth and food production: some historical developments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartemink, A.E.

    2007-01-01

    The world¿s population has doubled since 1960. Currently, the developing world accounts for about 95% of the population growth with Africa as the world¿s fastest growing continent. The growing population has many implications but most of all it requires an increase in agricultural production to meet

  3. [Population in the northern border area. Urban dynamism and binational interrelation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham Chande, R

    1988-01-01

    The 3300 km border between Mexico and the US constitutes the geopolitical separation between an underdeveloped country on the 1 hand and 1 of the most technologically and economically powerful countries in the world on the other. The border region is characterized by the contrasts on either side of the border and by the strong interrelation between both sides. Vast streams of persons, merchandise, money, services, communications, and cultural influences flow from 1 side to the other. The border region as a seat of population has a recent history. The border was defined in near current form only in the mid-19th century, when the expansionist tendencies of the US encountered a vast area of very sparse population. In 1900, the principal localities of the border zone had only about 39,000 inhabitants, of whom fewer than 5000 lived west of Ciudad Juarez. Between 1910-20, the population of the border region increased from 53,000 to 96,000 as a result of migrants fleeing the ravages of the revolution. The population of the border region was estimated at 3.826 million in 1988, resulting from rates of growth above Mexico's national average. Settlement in the area has depended on events and conditions in Mexico and on such US occurrences as Prohibition, the Great Depression, the 2nd World War, the Bracero program, and the Program of Border Industrialization. 82% of the border population lives in urban zones, partly because of lack of water. 80% of the urban population is concentrated in 6 cities, Juarez, Tijuana, Mexicali, Nuevo Laredo, Reynosa, and Matamoros. Much of the population of the 6 cities is composed of persons born elsewhere. The border area also has a large floating population of undocumented migrants in transit to or from the US. The high rates of urbanization and of binational interaction are reflected in demographic dynamics. In 1979, 71% of women in union in the border area vs 54% in the rest of Mexico had used contraception, and the infant mortality rate was

  4. 14 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION GROWTH AND ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    have lingered about the plausibility and consequences of population ... food supply, environmental degradation and shortage of infrastructural facilities? .... history punctuated by slave trade, colonialism, imperialiqm and globalization all of ...

  5. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Jose Struchiner

    Full Text Available In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83. Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

  6. [Population: evolution of Rwandan attitudes or the adaptation of the Rwanda population to population growth].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngendakumana, M

    1988-04-01

    A consequence of the increasing pressure on Rwanda's ecosystem resulting from population growth has been that demographic factors have played a significant role in modifying attitudes and beliefs of the population. The history of Rwanda demonstrates a constant struggle for survival in the face of increasing population pressure. Migration, colonization of new agricultural lands, adoption of new crops and new forms of animal husbandry have been responses to population pressures. Recent unprecedented population growth has exceeded the capacity of older systems of cultivation and combinations of agricultural and animal husbandry to support the population. Smaller animals have largely replaced the cattle that once roamed freely in extensive pastures, and new techniques of stabling animals, use of organic or chemical fertilizers, and new tools adapted to the shrinking size of farm plots have represented responses to the new demographic realities. The concept of the family is likewise undergoing modification in the face of population growth and modernization. Children, who once were valued as a source of labor and constrained to conform to the wishes of the parents in return for the eventual inheritance of the goods and livelihood, now increasingly look beyond the household for education and employment. Family land holdings have become too small to support all the members with a claim on them. The greater distances between family members inevitably mean that relations between them lose closeness. The choice of a marriage partner is increasingly assumed by the young people themselves and not by their families. Old traditions of food sharing and hospitality have been curtailed because of the increasing scarcity of food. Despite the changes engendered by increasing population pressure, pronatalist sentiments are still widespread. But the desire to assure the future of each child rather than to await his services, a new conception of women less dependent on their reproductive

  7. Urbanization and Structural Transformation

    OpenAIRE

    Michaels, Guy; Rauch, Ferdinand; Redding, Stephen J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents new evidence on urbanization using sub-county data for the United States from 1880-2000 and municipality data for Brazil from 1970-2000. We show that the two central stylized features of population growth for cities - Gibrat's Law and a stable population distribution - are strongly rejected when both rural and urban areas are considered. Population growth exhibits a U-shaped relationship with initial population density, and only becomes uncorrelated with initial population...

  8. Toolbox for Urban Mobility Simulation: High Resolution Population Dynamics for Global Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaduri, B. L.; Lu, W.; Liu, C.; Thakur, G.; Karthik, R.

    2015-12-01

    In this rapidly urbanizing world, unprecedented rate of population growth is not only mirrored by increasing demand for energy, food, water, and other natural resources, but has detrimental impacts on environmental and human security. Transportation simulations are frequently used for mobility assessment in urban planning, traffic operation, and emergency management. Previous research, involving purely analytical techniques to simulations capturing behavior, has investigated questions and scenarios regarding the relationships among energy, emissions, air quality, and transportation. Primary limitations of past attempts have been availability of input data, useful "energy and behavior focused" models, validation data, and adequate computational capability that allows adequate understanding of the interdependencies of our transportation system. With increasing availability and quality of traditional and crowdsourced data, we have utilized the OpenStreetMap roads network, and has integrated high resolution population data with traffic simulation to create a Toolbox for Urban Mobility Simulations (TUMS) at global scale. TUMS consists of three major components: data processing, traffic simulation models, and Internet-based visualizations. It integrates OpenStreetMap, LandScanTM population, and other open data (Census Transportation Planning Products, National household Travel Survey, etc.) to generate both normal traffic operation and emergency evacuation scenarios. TUMS integrates TRANSIMS and MITSIM as traffic simulation engines, which are open-source and widely-accepted for scalable traffic simulations. Consistent data and simulation platform allows quick adaption to various geographic areas that has been demonstrated for multiple cities across the world. We are combining the strengths of geospatial data sciences, high performance simulations, transportation planning, and emissions, vehicle and energy technology development to design and develop a simulation

  9. The population in China’s earthquake-prone areas has increased by over 32 million along with rapid urbanization

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Huang, Qingxu; Dou, Yinyin; Tu, Wei; Liu, Jifu

    2016-07-01

    Accurate assessments of the population exposed to seismic hazard are crucial in seismic risk mapping. Recent rapid urbanization in China has resulted in substantial changes in the size and structure of the population exposed to seismic hazard. Using the latest population census data and seismic maps, this work investigated spatiotemporal changes in the exposure of the population in the most seismically hazardous areas (MSHAs) in China from 1990 to 2010. In the context of rapid urbanization and massive rural-to-urban migration, nearly one-tenth of the Chinese population in 2010 lived in MSHAs. From 1990 to 2010, the MSHA population increased by 32.53 million at a significantly higher rate of change (33.6%) than the national average rate (17.7%). The elderly population in MSHAs increased by 81.4%, which is much higher than the group’s national growth rate of 58.9%. Greater attention should be paid to the demographic changes in earthquake-prone areas in China.

  10. Making a stand: five centuries of population growth in colonizing populations of Pinus ponderosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

    2012-05-01

    The processes underlying the development of new populations are important for understanding how species colonize new territory and form viable long-term populations. Life-history-mediated processes such as Allee effects and dispersal capability may interact with climate variability and site-specific factors to govern population success and failure over extended time frames. We studied four disjunct populations of ponderosa pine in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming to examine population growth spanning more than five centuries. The study populations are separated from continuous ponderosa pine forest by distances ranging from 15 to >100 km. Strong evidence indicates that the initial colonizing individuals are still present, yielding a nearly complete record of population history. All trees in each population were aged using dendroecological techniques. The populations were all founded between 1530 and 1655 cal yr CE. All show logistic growth patterns, with initial exponential growth followed by a slowing during the mid to late 20th century. Initial population growth was slower than expectations from a logistic regression model at all four populations, but increased during the mid-18th century. Initial lags in population growth may have been due to strong Allee effects. A combination of overcoming Allee effects and a transition to favorable climate conditions may have facilitated a mid-18th century pulse in population growth rate.

  11. [Puebla: the contradictions of growth and urban planning in the nineties].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Mendoza, S; Rojas Bonilla, J L; Vazquez Lopez, J

    1991-12-01

    A series of questions and observations are presented relating to urban problems resulting from demographic growth and economic development in the city of Puebla, Mexico. Although the date used are primarily for the city of Puebla, the metropolitan conurbation in its totality should be the true focus of study. The major problems in the city of Puebla result from the inability of market forces to satisfy growing needs for employment, housing, and transport, and from limitations on the ability of the municipal administration to provide and improve the public services demanded by the population. If the metropolitan area is not viewed as a whole, there is a great risk that uncontrolled growth will continue while problems in the conurbation will be underestimated. Puebla's most rapid period of growth occurred in the 1960s, when significant development took place in manufacturing. An inventory of proposed solutions to problems of urban development and social welfare in Puebla was conducted using data from the Development Plan of the state of Puebla for 1987-93 and reports of the state government and of municipal government programs for 1987-1990 and 1990-1993. The various plans mention 281 separate proposals, 218 actions, and 16 strategies. Severe financial limitations and technical and conceptual shortcomings however will probably prevent many from being implemented. Among the persisting problems in Puebla that have been recognized but are likely to worsen are the 38% deficit of drinking water and 30% loss through leakage and waste; the lack of water treatment and inadequate capacity of the sewage system and the failure to operate 7 existing water treatment plants because of the high cost; the lack of solid waste disposal facilities and existence of only 1 landfill that receives only 32% of the 1450 tons of solid waste produced daily; the lack of paved roads and failure to maintain existing roads, and poor planning and inadequacy of public transportation routes. The

  12. A Regional Spatial-Retrofitting Approach (RSRA to Geovisualise Regional Urban Growth: An application to the Golden Horseshoe in Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Vaz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding urban change in particular for larger regions has been a great demur in both regional planning and geography. One of the main challenges has been linked to the potential of modelling urban change. The absence of spatial data and size of areas of study limit the traditional urban monitoring approaches, which also do not take into account visualization techniques that share information with the community. This is the case of the Golden Horseshoe in southern Ontario in Canada, one of the fastest growing regions in North America. An unprecedented change on the urban environment has been witnessed, leading to an increased importance of awareness for future planning in the region. With a population greater than 8 million, the Golden Horseshoe is steadily showing symptoms of becoming a mega-urban region, joining surrounding cities into a single and diversified urban landscape. However, little effort has been done to understand these changes, nor to share information with policy makers, stakeholders and investors. These players are in need of the most diverse information on urban land use, which is seldom available from a single source. The spatio-temporal effect of the growth of this urban region could very well be the birth of yet another North American megacity. Therefore, from a spatial perspective there is demand for joint collaboration and adoption of a regional science perspective including land cover and spatio-temporal configurations. This calls forth a novel technique that allows for assessment of urban and regional change, and supports decision-making without having the usual concerns of locational data availability. It is this sense, that we present a spatial-retrofitting model, with the objective of (i retrofitting spatial land use based on current land use and land cover, and assessing proportional change in the past, leading to four spatial timestamps of the Golden Horseshoe’s land use, while (ii integrating this in a

  13. Urban habitat fragmentation and genetic population structure of bobcats in coastal southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruell, E.W.; Riley, S.P.D.; Douglas, M.R.; Antolin, M.F.; Pollinger, J.R.; Tracey, J.A.; Lyren, L.M.; Boydston, E.E.; Fisher, R.N.; Crooks, K.R.

    2012-01-01

    Although habitat fragmentation is recognized as a primary threat to biodiversity, the effects of urban development on genetic population structure vary among species and landscapes and are not yet well understood. Here we use non-invasive genetic sampling to compare the effects of fragmentation by major roads and urban development on levels of dispersal, genetic diversity, and relatedness between paired bobcat populations in replicate landscapes in coastal southern California. We hypothesized that bobcat populations in sites surrounded by urbanization would experience reduced functional connectivity relative to less isolated nearby populations. Our results show that bobcat genetic population structure is affected by roads and development but not always as predicted by the degree that these landscape features surround fragments. Instead, we suggest that urban development may affect functional connectivity between bobcat populations more by limiting the number and genetic diversity of source populations of migrants than by creating impermeable barriers to dispersal.

  14. Impact of population and economic growth on carbon emissions in Taiwan using an analytic tool STIRPAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Chao Yeh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Carbon emission has increasingly become an issue of global concern because of climate change. Unfortunately, Taiwan was listed as top 20 countries of carbon emission in 2014. In order to provide appropriate measures to control carbon emission, it appears that there is an urgent need to address how such factors as population and economic growth impact the emission of carbon dioxide in any developing countries. In addition to total population, both the percentages of population living in urban area (i.e., urbanization percentage, and non-dependent population may also serve as limiting factors. On the other hand, the total energy-driven gross domestic production (GDP and the percentage of GDP generated by the manufacturing industries are assessed to see their respective degree of impact on carbon emission. Therefore, based on the past national data in the period 1990–2014 in Taiwan, an analytic tool of Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT was employed to see how well those aforementioned factors can describe their individual potential impact on global warming, which is measured by the total amount of carbon emission into the atmosphere. Seven scenarios of STIRPAT model were proposed and tested statistically for the significance of each proposed model. As a result, two models were suggested to predict the impact of carbon emission due to population and economic growth by the year 2025 in Taiwan.

  15. Monitoring of urban growth and its related environmental impacts: Niamey case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Luigi; Tankari Dan-Badjo, Abdourahamane; De Luca, Domenico Antonio; Antonella Dino, Giovanna; Lasagna, Manuela; Spadafora, Francesco; Yadji, Guero; Konaté, Moussa

    2016-04-01

    The present contribution is about a preliminary study of the evolution of Niamey city (Niger) during last decades. Such research is part of an UNICOO project (funded by the University of Turin) and connected to the Edulink Cooperation Project (R.U.S.S.A.D.E.), a multidisciplinary project between Italy, Niger, Burkina Faso and Tchad funded on ACP- EU cooperation program in Higher Education. Recent advances in remote sensing, both in satellite hardware technology (i.e. image availability) and image processing algorithm development, provide opportunities for collection and analysis of multitemporal information on urban form and size that can be useful for policy and planning. In spite of these developments, there are also limitations to remote sensing and its application in practice. Some opportunities for, and limitations on, monitoring urban growth using remote sensing data are shown in the present contribution; moreover examples of environmental impacts of urban growth, as monitored with remote sensing, are provided. Niamey is the capital of Niger and is the first city in the country in size and economic importance. Its population increased gradually, from about 3,000 units in 1930 to about 30,000 in 1960, rising to 250,000 in 1980 and, according to estimates, to 800,000 units in 2000. Its patterns of population distribution, livelihoods, and its dominant role within the national economy of Niger make it a good representative case study for West Africa. This case study will consider the recent historical context of continued urban growth and will assess potential future impacts of settlement patterns. The rapid growth of Niamey in the last decades brought relative prosperity but it certainly affected patterns of land use within the city and the emerging urban system. After a preliminary sketch of the georesources in the city (qualitative and quantitative characterization of the surface water and groundwater, and of aggregates), an analyses of the urban growth and

  16. Fifty years of population growth and absorption of labor in Brazil: from 1950 to 2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, P D

    1997-01-01

    For a long time, the Brazilian population has grown at a relatively high rate, and only recently has the process of demographic transition intensified in the country. While the associated decline in fertility could result in a future decline in the size of the working-age population, it could also lead to an increase in female participation in the labor market. Brazil's economy is performing well, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an average annual rate of 7.1% during 1947-80. Marked growth in industrial employment opportunities has accompanied this growth in GDP. The size of the informal sector, however, has not decreased in similar proportion, while the 1981-83 economic crisis caused urban employment levels to drop, especially in industry and construction. Moreover, the level of rural-urban migration has increased and the agricultural employment index has fallen. The author evaluates past growth trends of the Economically Active Population (EAP) and of employment in Brazil, and assesses the potential growth of the labor force until the year 2000.

  17. Population-based assessment of heartburn in urban Black Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedenberg, F K; Makipour, K; Palit, A; Shah, S; Vanar, V; Richter, J E

    2013-08-01

    Prevalence data for heartburn in the urban Black American community is lacking. In order to estimate prevalence for this community, we analyzed data from an ongoing cohort study in progress at our hospital. Comprehensive interviews allowed for exploration of factors associated with heartburn. Complex, stratified sampling design was the method used. Survey invitations are hand-delivered to random blocks in a single zip code tabulation area. One member per eligible household is invited to complete a computer-based survey. Heartburn was defined as ≥ 3 days/week of symptoms as defined by the Montreal Definition and Classification of gastroesophageal reflux disease. Scaling and weighting factors were utilized to estimate population level prevalence. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent predictor variables for heartburn. Enrolled 379 participants corresponding to a weighted sample size of 22,409 (20,888-23,930) citizens. Demographic characteristics of the sample closely matched those of the entire targeted population. Overall, the weighted prevalence of heartburn ≥ 3 times per week was 17.6% (16.4-18.8%). Variables independently associated with heartburn were body mass index, daily caloric and fat intake, diabetes mellitus (odds ratio = 2.95; 2.59-3.36), cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption (odds ratio = 2.55; 2.25-2.89). Factors inversely associated included illicit drug use and increased physical activity. Waist : hip ratio showed no relationship. The prevalence of heartburn ≥ 3 times per week is high in the Black American community. Adverse lifestyle behaviors showed particularly important associations. Our study needs to be replicated in other communities with similar demographics. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus.

  18. Health, family planning and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, A; Standley, C C

    1973-01-01

    Maternal age over 35, close spacing of births, parity over 4, and unwanted pregnancy are discussed as factors that are associated with increased maternal and infant mortality. The likelihood of death due to childbearing is twice as high in the 30-40 age group as in the 20-30 age group and increases 4-to five-fold in the 40+ group. Brith Birth of less than 24-30 months are associated with a two-fold increase in neonatal and infant deaths. Health objectives of large scale family planning programs are geared toward avoiding such births. This paper proposes that these objectives would result in a decrease in maternal and child deaths and thereby lead to growth. A simultaneous lowering of birth rates, however, should offset this growth.

  19. The light pollution as a surrogate for urban population of the US cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Operti, Felipe G.; Oliveira, Erneson A.; Carmona, Humberto A.; Machado, Javam C.; Andrade, José S.

    2018-02-01

    We show that the definition of the city boundaries can have a dramatic influence on the scaling behavior of the night-time light (NTL) as a function of population (POP) in the US. Precisely, our results show that the arbitrary geopolitical definition based on the Metropolitan/Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA/CMSA) leads to a sublinear power-law growth of NTL with POP. On the other hand, when cities are defined according to a more natural agglomeration criteria, namely, the City Clustering Algorithm (CCA), an isometric relation emerges between NTL and population. This discrepancy is compatible with results from previous works showing that the scaling behaviors of various urban indicators with population can be substantially different for distinct definitions of city boundaries. Moreover, considering the CCA definition as more adequate than the MSA/CMSA one because the former does not violate the expected extensivity between land population and area of their generated clusters, we conclude that, without loss of generality, the CCA measures of light pollution and population could be interchangeably utilized in future studies.

  20. Social structural consequences of population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, R E

    1981-01-01

    Estimates from archaeological data of the numbers in the elite classes, nonelite occupational specialists, density of population, city size, and size of political units in the ancient Maya civilization suggest that there was a quantum shift in rate of development in the Early Classic period, associated with intensification of agriculture, and that the social structure approximated to a generalized feudal pattern.

  1. Using Lemna to Study Geometric Population Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBuhr, Larry E.

    1991-01-01

    An experiment in which students collect and analyze data on the population size of a real organism rather that on a model is presented. The activity allows for the integration of mathematics, graphing techniques, and the use of computers. The lesson is designed to follow the learning cycle format. (KR)

  2. Campylobacter jejuni colonization and population structure in urban populations of ducks and starlings in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, Vathsala; Stevenson, Mark; Marshall, Jonathan; Fearnhead, Paul; Holland, Barbara R; Hotter, Grant; French, Nigel P

    2013-08-01

    A repeated cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the prevalence of Campylobacter spp. and the population structure of C. jejuni in European starlings and ducks cohabiting multiple public access sites in an urban area of New Zealand. The country's geographical isolation and relatively recent history of introduction of wild bird species, including the European starling and mallard duck, create an ideal setting to explore the impact of geographical separation on the population biology of C. jejuni, as well as potential public health implications. A total of 716 starling and 720 duck fecal samples were collected and screened for C. jejuni over a 12 month period. This study combined molecular genotyping, population genetics and epidemiological modeling and revealed: (i) higher Campylobacter spp. isolation in starlings (46%) compared with ducks (30%), but similar isolation of C. jejuni in ducks (23%) and starlings (21%), (ii) significant associations between the isolation of Campylobacter spp. and host species, sampling location and time of year using logistic regression, (iii) evidence of population differentiation, as indicated by FST , and host-genotype association with clonal complexes CC ST-177 and CC ST-682 associated with starlings, and clonal complexes CC ST-1034, CC ST-692, and CC ST-1332 associated with ducks, and (iv) greater genetic diversity and genotype richness in ducks compared with starlings. These findings provide evidence that host-associated genotypes, such as the starling-associated ST-177 and ST-682, represent lineages that were introduced with the host species in the 19th century. The isolation of sequence types associated with human disease in New Zealand indicate that wild ducks and starlings need to be considered as a potential public health risk, particularly in urban areas. © 2013 The Authors. Microbiology Open published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickens, Bradley A.; Marcus, Jeffrey F.; Carpenter, John P.; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J.; Collazo, Jaime A.

    2017-01-01

    A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010–2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation.

  4. Innovation and the growth of human population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberger, V P; Quiñinao, C; Marquet, P A

    2017-12-05

    Biodiversity is sustained by and is essential to the services that ecosystems provide. Different species would use these services in different ways, or adaptive strategies, which are sustained in time by continuous innovations. Using this framework, we postulate a model for a biological species ( Homo sapiens ) in a finite world where innovations, aimed at increasing the flux of ecosystem services (a measure of habitat quality), increase with population size, and have positive effects on the generation of new innovations (positive feedback) as well as costs in terms of negatively affecting the provision of ecosystem services. We applied this model to human populations, where technological innovations are driven by cumulative cultural evolution. Our model shows that depending on the net impact of a technology on the provision of ecosystem services ( θ ), and the strength of technological feedback ( ξ ), different regimes can result. Among them, the human population can fill the entire planet while maximizing their well-being, but not exhaust ecosystem services. However, this outcome requires positive or green technologies that increase the provision of ecosystem services with few negative externalities or environmental costs, and that have a strong positive feedback in generating new technologies of the same kind. If the feedback is small, then the technological stock can collapse together with the human population. Scenarios where technological innovations generate net negative impacts may be associated with a limited technological stock as well as a limited human population at equilibrium and the potential for collapse. The only way to fill the planet with humans under this scenario of negative technologies is by reducing the technological stock to a minimum. Otherwise, the only feasible equilibrium is associated with population collapse. Our model points out that technological innovations per se may not help humans to grow and dominate the planet. Instead

  5. Urban blight and urban redesign

    OpenAIRE

    Zsilincsar, Walter

    2018-01-01

    The phenomenon of urban blight dates back to the 19th century when industrialisation starting in Europe and North America initiated an uncontrolled urban growth in combination with strong demand in cheap an quickly constructed housing. Ghettoisation of mainly the working-class population and other “marginal groups” were the consequence together with a constant decay of single buildings, whole blocks and quarters. These general aspects of urban blight with its additional facettes or aspects re...

  6. Inter-Regional Spillovers and Urban-Rural Disparity in U.S. Employment Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Hisamitsu Saito; Munisamy Gopinath; JunJie Wu

    2011-01-01

    A wide urban-rural disparity is observed in employment growth in the United States. For example, employment growth averaged 2.1 percent in urban counties during 1998-2007, compared with just 1 percent in rural counties. In this study, we examine the sources of U.S. employment growth using the county-level industry data. From an analytical labor-market model, we derive equilibrium employment growth as a function of growth in neighborhood characteristics and initial conditions such as accumulat...

  7. Poverty-led higher population growth in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakibullah, A; Rahman, A

    1996-01-01

    This article discusses the issue whether population growth is exogenous or endogenous in the economic development of Bangladesh. Overpopulation adversely affects food supplies, foreign exchange, and human resources. Moreover, it depresses savings per capita and retards growth of physical capital per labor. Underdeveloped countries, like Bangladesh, are faced with the problem of allocating resources between infrastructure, education, and health service that are essential for human capital development and population control measures. With this, determination whether fertility is exogenous or endogenous is important for policy purposes in the context of Bangladesh. Results showed that there is a correlation between population growth and real gross domestic products per capita. Based on Granger causality test, population growth is endogenous in the development process of Bangladesh and its overpopulation is due to poverty. Thus, there is a need for appropriate policy to take measures to improve human capital and decrease fertility rates.

  8. The Growth of Older Inmate Populations: How Population Aging Explains Rising Age at Admission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luallen, Jeremy; Cutler, Christopher

    2017-09-01

    Older inmates are the fastest growing segment of the prison population; however, the reasons for this are not well understood. One explanation is that the general population is aging, driving prison age distributions to change. For this article, we study the role of population aging in prison growth by investigating how the baby boom phenomenon of post-World War II has contributed to the growth of older inmate populations. We identify the impact of population aging using simulation methods that explain prison growth as the combination of criminal justice processes. Overall, we find evidence that population aging has played a significant role in explaining the growth of older inmate populations, in particular among inmates aged between 50 and 64 years, contributing to as much as half of the observed increase in these groups since 2000. This finding stands in contrast to the notion that population aging has little explanatory power in describing the growth of prison populations and implies that older inmate groups are more sensitive to compositional changes in the general population. We argue that prediction-based modeling of prison growth should more seriously consider the impacts and consequences of demographic shifts among older prisoner populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Southern (DisComfort?: Latino Population Growth, Economic Integration and Spatial Assimilation in North Carolina Micropolitan Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-María González Wahl

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines more closely the growth and assimilation of the Latino population in non-metropolitan areas across North Carolina. More specifically, the analysis focuses on micropolitan areas. Based on the last decennial census, micropolitan areas were newly defined by the Census Bureau to reflect the growing importance of "urban clusters" located in non-metropolitan counties.

  10. More than 500 million Chinese urban residents (14% of the global urban population) are imperiled by fine particulate hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Han, Lijian; Zhang, Robin Q

    2016-11-01

    China's urbanization and the subsequent public vulnerability to degenerated environment is important to global public health. Among the environmental problems, fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) pollution has become a serious hazard in rapidly urbanizing China. However, quantitative information remains inadequate. We thus collected PM 2.5 concentrations and population census records, to illustrate the spatial patterns and changes in the PM 2.5 hazard levels in China, and to quantify public vulnerability to the hazard during 2000-2010, following the air quality standards of World Health Organization. We found that 28% (2.72 million km 2 ) of China's territory, including 78% of cities (154 cities) with a population of >1 million, was exposed to PM 2.5 hazard in 2010; a 15% increase (1.47 million km 2 ) from 2000 to 2010. The hazards potentially impacted the health of 72% of the total population (942 million) in 2010, including 70% of the young (206 million) and 76% of the old (71 million). This was a significant increase from the 42% of total the population (279 million) exposed in 2000. Of the total urban residents, 76% (501 million) were affected in 2010. Along with PM 2.5 concentration increase, massive number of rural to urban migration also contributed greatly to China's urban public health vulnerability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. 1 POPULATION PRESSURE AND HEALTH RISKS IN URBAN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    on urban market environment (and in this case, Bodija Market, Ibadan). Particular ... markets in most LDCs have become huge waste production centers. ... market. With about 90 percent of food purchases of urban residents being sourced from .... up a child's excrement in between attending to customers are created. Often ...

  12. Diet quality limits summer growth of field vole populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristian M Forbes

    Full Text Available Marked variation occurs in both seasonal and multiannual population density peaks of northern European small mammal species, including voles. The availability of dietary proteins is a key factor limiting the population growth of herbivore species. The objective of this study is to investigate the degree to which protein availability influences the growth of increasing vole populations. We hypothesise that the summer growth of folivorous vole populations is positively associated with dietary protein availability. A field experiment was conducted over a summer reproductive period in 18 vegetated enclosures. Populations of field voles (Microtus agrestis were randomised amongst three treatment groups: 1 food supplementation with ad libitum high protein (30% dry weight pellets, 2 food supplementation with ad libitum low protein (1% dry weight; both supplemented foods had equivalent energy content pellets, and 3 control (no food supplementation, n = 6 per treatment. Vole density, survival, demographic attributes and condition indicators were monitored with live-trapping and blood sampling. Highest final vole densities were attained in populations that received high protein supplementation and lowest in low protein populations. Control populations displayed intermediate densities. The survival rate of voles was similar in all treatment groups. The proportion of females, and of those that were pregnant or lactating, was highest in the high protein supplemented populations. This suggests that variation in reproductive, rather than survival rates of voles, accounted for density differences between the treatment groups. We found no clear association between population demography and individual physiological condition. Our results demonstrate that dietary protein availability limits vole population growth during the summer growing season. This suggests that the nutritional quality of forage may be an underestimated source of interannual variation in the

  13. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  14. Age and growth of two populations of West Coast steenbras ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... density-dependent competition for food, or biochemical genetic variations between the two populations, are possible reasons for the geographic differences found in the growth rates and length-at-age. Slow growth and longevity are characteristics of West Coast steenbras that make it extremely susceptible to overfishing; ...

  15. Population growth, economic security, and cultural change in wilderness counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul A. Lorah

    2000-01-01

    A familiar version of the “jobs versus the environment” argument asserts that wilderness areas limit economic growth by locking up potentially productive natural resources. Analysis of the development paths of rural Western counties shows that this is unlikely: the presence of Wilderness is correlated with income, employment and population growth. Similarly, Wilderness...

  16. Modification of Heat-Related Mortality in an Elderly Urban Population by Vegetation (Urban Green) and Proximity to Water (Urban Blue): Evidence from Lisbon, Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, Katrin; Meier, Fred; Schneider, Alexandra; Breitner, Susanne; Canário, Paulo; Alcoforado, Maria João; Scherer, Dieter; Endlicher, Wilfried

    2016-07-01

    Urban populations are highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of heat, with heat-related mortality showing intra-urban variations that are likely due to differences in urban characteristics and socioeconomic status. We investigated the influence of urban green and urban blue, that is, urban vegetation and water bodies, on heat-related excess mortality in the elderly > 65 years old in Lisbon, Portugal, between 1998 and 2008. We used remotely sensed data and geographic information to determine the amount of urban vegetation and the distance to bodies of water (the Atlantic Ocean and the Tagus Estuary). Poisson generalized additive models were fitted, allowing for the interaction between equivalent temperature [universal thermal climate index (UTCI)] and quartiles of urban greenness [classified using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)] and proximity to water (≤ 4 km vs. > 4 km), while adjusting for potential confounders. The association between mortality and a 1°C increase in UTCI above the 99th percentile (24.8°C) was stronger for areas in the lowest NDVI quartile (14.7% higher; 95% CI: 1.9, 17.5%) than for areas in the highest quartile (3.0%; 95% CI: 2.0, 4.0%). In areas > 4 km from water, a 1°C increase in UTCI above the 99th percentile was associated with a 7.1% increase in mortality (95% CI: 6.2, 8.1%), whereas in areas ≤ 4 km from water, the estimated increase in mortality was only 2.1% (95% CI: 1.2, 3.0%). Urban green and blue appeared to have a mitigating effect on heat-related mortality in the elderly population in Lisbon. Increasing the amount of vegetation may be a good strategy to counteract the adverse effects of heat in urban areas. Our findings also suggest potential benefits of urban blue that may be present several kilometers from a body of water. Burkart K, Meier F, Schneider A, Breitner S, Canário P, Alcoforado MJ, Scherer D, Endlicher W. 2016. Modification of heat-related mortality in an elderly urban population by

  17. Impact of Population Aging on Asia's Future Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Donghyun; Shin, Kwanho

    2011-01-01

    First, the expert contributors argue, Asia must find ways to sustain rapid economic growth in the face of less favorable demographics, which implies slower growth of the workforce. Second, they contend, Asia must find ways to deliver affordable, adequate, and sustainable old-age economic security for its growing elderly population. Underpinned by rigorous analysis, a wide range of concrete policy options for sustaining economic growth while delivering economic security for the elderly are the...

  18. Urban growth and poverty in India, 1983–2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lanjouw, Peter; Murgai, Rinku

    2010-01-01

    Although poverty in India remains disproportionately rural at the aggregate level, urban poverty is growing in importance. Efforts to address urban poverty should note its spatial distribution. This paper shows that the incidence of poverty in India’s small towns is markedly higher than in large

  19. Using Open data in analyzing urban growth: urban density and change detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    murgante, Beniamino; Nolè, Gabriele; Lasaponara, Rosa; Lanorte, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    In recent years a great attention has been paid to the evolution and the use of spatial data. Internet technologies accelerated such a process, allowing more direct access to spatial information. It is estimated that more than 600 million people have been connected to the Internet at least once to display maps on the web. Consequently, there is an irreversible process which considers geographical dimension as a fundamental attribute for the management of information flows. Furthermore, the great activity produced by open data movement leads to an easier and clearer access to geospatial information. This trend concerns, in a less evident way, also satellite data, which are increasingly accessible through the web. Spatial planning, geography and other regional sciences find it difficult to build knowledge related to spatial transformation. These problems can be significantly reduced due to a large data availability, producing significant opportunities to capture knowledge useful for a better territorial governance. This study has been developed in a heavily anthropized area in southern Italy, Apulia region, using free spatial data and free multispectral and multitemporal satellite data (Apulia region was one of the first regions in Italy to adopt open data policies). The analysis concerns urban growth, which, in recent decades, showed a rapid increase. In a first step the evolution in time and change detection of urban areas has been analyzed paying particular attention to soil consumption. In the second step Kernel Density has been adopted in order to assess development pressures. KDE (Kernel Density Estimation) function is a technique that provides the density of a phenomenon based on point data. A mobile three dimensional surface has been produced from a set of points distributed over a region of space, which weighs the events within its sphere of influence, depending on their distance from the point from which intensity is estimated. It produces, considering as

  20. Trends in mortality and biological stress in a medieval polish urban population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betsinger, Tracy K; DeWitte, Sharon

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization in pre-modern populations may have had a variety of consequences related to population crowding. However, research on the effects of urbanization have provided inconsistent results regarding the biological impact of this transition on human populations. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that urbanization caused an increase in overall biological stress in a medieval (10th-13th centuries AD) Polish population. A human skeletal sample (n=164) was examined for the presence of porotic hyperostosis, cribra orbitalia, linear enamel hypoplasia, periosteal reaction, and specific infectious diseases. Prevalence rates were compared among three temporal samples: initial urbanization, early urbanization, and later urbanization. Results indicate no significant trends for any of the pathological conditions. Cox proportional hazards analyses, however, revealed a significant increase in the risk of death over time, which supports the hypothesis. These results reflect the necessity of using multiple analyses to address bioarchaeological questions. The lack of significant results from skeletal indicators may be due to an earlier urbanization trend in the population. This study illustrates that the association of urbanization with elevated biological stress is complicated and dependent on various factors, including culture and time period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Spatiotemporal simulation of urban growth patterns using agent-based modeling: The case of Tehran

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jokar Arsanjani, J.; Helbich, M.; Vaz, E.

    2013-01-01

    Rapid urban growth is becoming a serious problem in most developing countries. Tehran, the capital of Iran, stands out as a vibrant metropolitan area, facing uncontrolled urban expansion. Public authorities and decision makers require planning criteria regarding possible spatial developments. To

  2. Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Spatial Determinants of Urban Growth in Suzhou, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Zhang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban growth and models its spatial determinants in China through a case study of Suzhou, a rapidly industrializing and globalizing city. We conducted spatial analysis on land use data derived from multi-temporal remote sensing images of Suzhou from 1986 to 2008. Three urban growth types, namely infilling, edge-expansion, and leapfrog, were identified. We used landscape metrics to quantify the temporal trend of urban growth in Suzhou. During these 22 years, Suzhou’s urbanization changed from bottom-up rural urbanization to city-based top-down urban expansion. The underlying mechanism changed from TVE (town village enterprise driven rural industrialization to FDI (foreign direct investment driven development zone fever. Furthermore, we employed both global and local logistic regressions to model the probability of urban land conversion against a set of spatial variables. The global logistic regression model found the significance of proximity, neighborhood conditions, and socioeconomic factors. The logistic geographically weighted regression (GWR model improved the global regression model with better model goodness-of-fit and higher prediction accuracy. More importantly, the local parameter estimates of variables enabled us to exam spatial variations of the influences of variables on urban growth in Suzhou.

  3. The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bental, B

    1989-03-01

    The application of the Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generations framework to the old age security hypothesis indicates that government intervention schemes can influence the relationship between population growth and capital accumulation. The most direct means of optimizing population growth is through taxes or subsidies that relate to the intergenerational transfer of wealth. A pay-as-you-go social security scheme, in which payment is predicated on the number of children the receiver has and is financed by taxes levied on the working population, emerges as the most likely intervention to produce the optimal steady state equilibrium. This system is able to correct any distortions the private sector may build into it. In contrast, a child support system, in which the government subsidizes or taxes workers according to their family size, can guarantee the optimal capital:labor ratio but not the optimal population growth rate. Thus, if the government seeks to decrease the population growth rate, the appropriate intervention is to levy a lump-sum social-security tax on workers and transfer the revenues to the old; the direction should be reversed if the goal is to increase population growth. Another alternative, a lump sum social security system, can guarantee optimal population growth but not a desirable capital:labor ratio. Finally, the introduction of money as a valued commodity into an economy with a high capital:labor ratio will also serve to decrease the population growth rate and solve the intergenerational transfer problem through the private sector without any need for government intervention.

  4. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  5. Communication and The Challenges of Rapid Population Growth in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2005) which projected the African Population at 1,349 million by 2025 and 1,969 million by 2050. These figures are so frightening that the use of communication to contribute to checking the high population growth is challenged. We discuss ...

  6. A new population growth map with variable coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jannussis, A.

    1986-01-01

    In the present paper it is investigated a simple population growth map with variable coefficients. Moreover, it is studied the new population map of the form xsub(j+1) = axsub(j) (1/(1 + bxsub(j)) -1/(1 + cxsub(j))), c not= b, j = 0, 1,..., which is transformed in an equivalent logistic map

  7. Psychologists and the problem of population growth : Reply to Bridgeman

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clayton, Susan; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet K.; Bonnes, Mirilia; Devine-Wright, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Bridgeman (2017) describes the important role of population growth in contributing to environmental problems. The present essay argues that population is an important component of human impact on the environment, but it must be considered in combination with consumption rates. A place-based

  8. Exploitation of geospatial techniques for monitoring metropolitan population growth and classification of landcover features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almas, A.S.; Rahim, C.A.

    2006-01-01

    The present research relates to the exploitation of Remote Sensing and GIS techniques for studying the metropolitan expansion and land use/ landcover classification of Lahore, the second largest city of Pakistan where urbanization is taking place at a striking rate with inadequate development of the requisite infrastructure. Such sprawl gives rise to the congestion, pollution and commuting time issues. The metropolitan expansion, based on growth direction and distance from the city centre, was observed for a period of about thirty years. The classification of the complex spatial assemblage of urban environment and its expanding precincts was done using the temporally spaced satellite images geo-referenced to a common coordinate system and census data. Spatial categorization of urban landscape involving densely populated residential areas, sparsely inhibited regions, bare soil patches, water bodies, vegetation, Parks, and mixed features was done with the help of satellite images. Resultantly, remote sensing and GIS techniques were found very efficient and effective for studying the metropolitan growth patterns along with the classification of urban features into prominent categories. In addition, census data augments the usefulness of spatial techniques for carrying out such studies. (author)

  9. Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Ping

    2005-01-01

    from various Danish longitudinal registers. Data were analysed with conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: This study confirms that people living in more urbanized areas are at a higher risk of suicide than their counterparts in less urbanized areas. However, this excess risk is largely eliminated...... when adjusted for personal marital, income, and ethnic differences; it is even reversed when further adjusted for psychiatric status. Moreover, the impact of urbanicity on suicide risk differs significantly by sex and across age. Urban living reduces suicide risk significantly among men, especially......BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

  10. Urban Growth Modeling Using AN Artificial Neural Network a Case Study of Sanandaj City, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pahlavani, P.

    2014-10-01

    Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Modelling and managing urban growth is a complex problem. Cities are now recognized as complex, non-linear and dynamic process systems. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. Local governments that implement urban growth models need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban uses within the boundary. There are so many negative implications related with the type of inappropriate urban development such as increased traffic and demand for mobility, reduced landscape attractively, land use fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and alterations of the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to use the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to make a powerful tool for simulating urban growth patterns. Our study area is Sanandaj city located in the west of Iran. Landsat imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006 are used. Dataset were used include distance to principle roads, distance to residential areas, elevation, slope, distance to green spaces and distance to region centers. In this study an appropriate methodology for urban growth modelling using satellite remotely sensed data is presented and evaluated. Percent Correct Match (PCM) and Figure of Merit were used to evaluate ANN results.

  11. Spatiotemporal variability of urban growth factors: A global and local perspective on the megacity of Mumbai

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Helbich, Marco

    2015-03-01

    The rapid growth of megacities requires special attention among urban planners worldwide, and particularly in Mumbai, India, where growth is very pronounced. To cope with the planning challenges this will bring, developing a retrospective understanding of urban land-use dynamics and the underlying driving-forces behind urban growth is a key prerequisite. This research uses regression-based land-use change models - and in particular non-spatial logistic regression models (LR) and auto-logistic regression models (ALR) - for the Mumbai region over the period 1973-2010, in order to determine the drivers behind spatiotemporal urban expansion. Both global models are complemented by a local, spatial model, the so-called geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model, one that explicitly permits variations in driving-forces across space. The study comes to two main conclusions. First, both global models suggest similar driving-forces behind urban growth over time, revealing that LRs and ALRs result in estimated coefficients with comparable magnitudes. Second, all the local coefficients show distinctive temporal and spatial variations. It is therefore concluded that GWLR aids our understanding of urban growth processes, and so can assist context-related planning and policymaking activities when seeking to secure a sustainable urban future.

  12. URBAN GROWTH MODELING USING AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK A CASE STUDY OF SANANDAJ CITY, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mohammady

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Modelling and managing urban growth is a complex problem. Cities are now recognized as complex, non-linear and dynamic process systems. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. Local governments that implement urban growth models need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban uses within the boundary. There are so many negative implications related with the type of inappropriate urban development such as increased traffic and demand for mobility, reduced landscape attractively, land use fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and alterations of the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to use the Artificial Neural Network (ANN to make a powerful tool for simulating urban growth patterns. Our study area is Sanandaj city located in the west of Iran. Landsat imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006 are used. Dataset were used include distance to principle roads, distance to residential areas, elevation, slope, distance to green spaces and distance to region centers. In this study an appropriate methodology for urban growth modelling using satellite remotely sensed data is presented and evaluated. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit were used to evaluate ANN results.

  13. Predicting Intra-Urban Population Densities in Africa using SAR and Optical Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linard, C.; Steele, J.; Forget, Y.; Lopez, J.; Shimoni, M.

    2017-12-01

    The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving profound social, environmental and epidemiological changes within rapidly growing cities. Estimations of within-city variations in population density must be improved in order to take urban heterogeneities into account and better help urban research and decision making, especially for vulnerability and health assessments. Satellite remote sensing offers an effective solution for mapping settlements and monitoring urbanization at different spatial and temporal scales. In Africa, the urban landscape is covered by slums and small houses, where the heterogeneity is high and where the man-made materials are natural. Innovative methods that combine optical and SAR data are therefore necessary for improving settlement mapping and population density predictions. An automatic method was developed to estimate built-up densities using recent and archived optical and SAR data and a multi-temporal database of built-up densities was produced for 48 African cities. Geo-statistical methods were then used to study the relationships between census-derived population densities and satellite-derived built-up attributes. Best predictors were combined in a Random Forest framework in order to predict intra-urban variations in population density in any large African city. Models show significant improvement of our spatial understanding of urbanization and urban population distribution in Africa in comparison to the state of the art.

  14. Population genetics, community of parasites, and resistance to rodenticides in an urban brown rat (Rattus norvegicus) population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desvars-Larrive, Amélie; Pascal, Michel; Gasqui, Patrick; Cosson, Jean-François; Benoît, Etienne; Lattard, Virginie; Crespin, Laurent; Lorvelec, Olivier; Pisanu, Benoît; Teynié, Alexandre; Vayssier-Taussat, Muriel; Bonnet, Sarah; Marianneau, Philippe; Lacôte, Sandra; Bourhy, Pascale; Berny, Philippe; Pavio, Nicole; Le Poder, Sophie; Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle; Jourdain, Elsa; Hammed, Abdessalem; Fourel, Isabelle; Chikh, Farid; Vourc'h, Gwenaël

    2017-01-01

    Brown rats are one of the most widespread urban species worldwide. Despite the nuisances they induce and their potential role as a zoonotic reservoir, knowledge on urban rat populations remains scarce. The main purpose of this study was to characterize an urban brown rat population from Chanteraines park (Hauts-de-Seine, France), with regards to haematology, population genetics, immunogenic diversity, resistance to anticoagulant rodenticides, and community of parasites. Haematological parameters were measured. Population genetics was investigated using 13 unlinked microsatellite loci. Immunogenic diversity was assessed for Mhc-Drb. Frequency of the Y139F mutation (conferring resistance to rodenticides) and two linked microsatellites were studied, concurrently with the presence of anticoagulant residues in the liver. Combination of microscopy and molecular methods were used to investigate the occurrence of 25 parasites. Statistical approaches were used to explore multiple parasite relationships and model parasite occurrence. Eighty-six rats were caught. The first haematological data for a wild urban R. norvegicus population was reported. Genetic results suggested high genetic diversity and connectivity between Chanteraines rats and surrounding population(s). We found a high prevalence (55.8%) of the mutation Y139F and presence of rodenticide residues in 47.7% of the sampled individuals. The parasite species richness was high (16). Seven potential zoonotic pathogens were identified, together with a surprisingly high diversity of Leptospira species (4). Chanteraines rat population is not closed, allowing gene flow and making eradication programs challenging, particularly because rodenticide resistance is highly prevalent. Parasitological results showed that co-infection is more a rule than an exception. Furthermore, the presence of several potential zoonotic pathogens, of which four Leptospira species, in this urban rat population raised its role in the maintenance

  15. The influence of coyotes on an urban Canada goose population in the Chicago metropolitan area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Justin L.; /Ohio State U.

    2007-01-01

    Canada geese (Branta canadensis) have become common in many urban areas, often creating nuisance problems for human residents. The presence of urban geese has raised concerns about the spread of disease, increased erosion, excessive noise, eutrophication of waterways, and general nuisance problems. Goose populations have grown due to an increase in urbanization resulting in an abundance of high quality food (urban grass) and suitable nesting sites, as well as a decrease in some predators. I monitored nest predation in the Chicago suburbs during the 2004 and 2005 nesting seasons using 3 nest monitoring techniques to identify predators: video cameras, plasticine eggs, and sign from nest using a classification tree analysis. Of 58 nests monitored in 2004 and 286 in 2005, only raccoons (Procyon lotor) and coyotes (Canis latrans) were identified as nest predators. Raccoons were responsible for 22-25% of depredated nests, but were rarely capable of depredating nests that were actively defended by a goose. Coyotes were responsible for 75-78% of all Canada goose nest depredation and were documented killing one adult goose and feeding on several others. The coyote is a top-level predator that had increased in many metropolitan areas in recent years. To determine if coyotes were actively hunting geese or eggs during the nesting season, I analyzed coyote habitat selection between nesting and pre-nesting or post-nesting seasons. Coyote home ranges (95% Minimum Convex Polygon) were calculated for 19 coyotes to examine third order habitat selection related to goose nest abundance. A 100 m buffer (buffer habitat) was created and centered on each waterway edge and contained 90% of all nests. Coyotes showed selection for habitats during all seasons. Buffer habitat was the top ranked habitat in both pre-nesting and nesting seasons, but dropped to third ranked in post-nesting season. Habitat selection across seasons was compared using a repeated measures MANOVA. Habitat selection

  16. Air quality public policies and their implications for densely populated urban areas in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Carlos de Moura Xavier

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to the current growth of the Brazilian population income and energy consumption and an increase in the population density in urban areas, air quality in the crowded Brazilian cities is being questioned. In searching for a solution we analyzed both the Brazilian and Regional (São Paulo state public policies of air quality that have been issued since 1981 by confronting them to the air quality official indexes. Following the growth of the national vehicle fleet, 48.8 million in 2012 from 9.3 million in 1980, the total carbon dioxide emissions tripled. At regional level, PM2.5 measurements have been carried out systematically since 1999 in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo city, the largest Brazilian city, with 19.7 million inhabitants, and more than 7 million vehicles powered mainly by fossil fuels. Although the numbers are still above the state standard to be reached (10µg.m-3, there was a decrease on the annual average in 2008-2015 compared with 2001-2007. This was partially due to the limits established for new vehicles by federal programs. The analysis indicated that the reduction of air pollutants emission will be more easily achieved based on strategies that combine policies supported by current laws, government and private sector agreements and the community engagement.

  17. Lebensraum: paradoxically, population growth may eventually end wars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, J L

    1989-03-01

    Population growth may progressively reduce 1 of the motives for making war. Namely, population growth threatens shortages of resources, and especially land. Impending shortages cause a search for ways to mitigate the shortages. The discoveries eventually produce greater availability of resources than if population growth and pressure on resources had never occurred. The argument runs as follows: 1) Rhetoric about resources scarcity induced by population density has often contributed to international conflict, even if economics has not been the main motive in making war. 2) In the pre-modern era, war to obtain land and other resources may sometimes have been an economically sound policy. 3) Politicians and others in industrially developed nations believe resources may still be a casus belli. 4) Land and other productive resources are no longer worth acquiring at the cost of war.

  18. Developing the desert:the pace and process of urban growth in Dubai

    OpenAIRE

    Nassar, Ahmed K.; Blackburn, George Alan; Whyatt, Duncan

    2014-01-01

    It is generally acknowledged that Dubai is a rapidly developing urban area which has grown to support a large human population within a hyperarid environment. However, no publicly accessible information exists concerning the rate or form of the urbanization process in Dubai. Therefore, this investigation used a time series of remotely sensed data to quantify land cover change in Dubai emirate between 1972 and 2011. A hybrid classification method accurately discriminated urban and other land c...

  19. [The control of urban growth in Mexico City. Suppositions regarding poor planning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, A G; Olvera, G

    1991-01-01

    Plan of the state of Mexico published in 1986 proposed 2 important programs for controlling urban growth. The territorial reserves program aimed to anticipate the need and make available through purchase, expropriation, or other means sufficient lands for housing to which the lowest income groups would share access. The "Paint Your Line" program establiished physical limits for urban expansion in each of the 17 conurban municipios in the State of Mexico. To date, however, few lands have been set aside for legal acquisition and the Paint Your Line program has been slow in delimiting the areas to be settled. Data from a 1989 study in the municipios of Chalco and Ixtapaluca demonstrate the shortcomings of the programs, which do not address the true processes and agents that control new settlements and especially illegal occupations and which fail to satisfy the needs of low-income population sectors.

  20. Human population, urban settlement patterns and their impact on Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kabaria Caroline W

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The efficient allocation of financial resources for malaria control and the optimal distribution of appropriate interventions require accurate information on the geographic distribution of malaria risk and of the human populations it affects. Low population densities in rural areas and high population densities in urban areas can influence malaria transmission substantially. Here, the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP global database of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR surveys, medical intelligence and contemporary population surfaces are utilized to explore these relationships and other issues involved in combining malaria risk maps with those of human population distribution in order to define populations at risk more accurately. Methods First, an existing population surface was examined to determine if it was sufficiently detailed to be used reliably as a mask to identify areas of very low and very high population density as malaria free regions. Second, the potential of international travel and health guidelines (ITHGs for identifying malaria free cities was examined. Third, the differences in PfPR values between surveys conducted in author-defined rural and urban areas were examined. Fourth, the ability of various global urban extent maps to reliably discriminate these author-based classifications of urban and rural in the PfPR database was investigated. Finally, the urban map that most accurately replicated the author-based classifications was analysed to examine the effects of urban classifications on PfPR values across the entire MAP database. Results Masks of zero population density excluded many non-zero PfPR surveys, indicating that the population surface was not detailed enough to define areas of zero transmission resulting from low population densities. In contrast, the ITHGs enabled the identification and mapping of 53 malaria free urban areas within endemic countries. Comparison of PfPR survey results showed

  1. The less healthy urban population: income-related health inequality in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wei; Kanavos, Panos

    2012-09-18

    Health inequality has been recognized as a problem all over the world. In China, the poor usually have less access to healthcare than the better-off, despite having higher levels of need. Since the proportion of the Chinese population living in urban areas increased tremendously with the urbanization movements, attention has been paid to the association between urban/rural residence and population health. It is important to understand the variation in health across income groups, and in particular to take into account the effects of urban/rural residence on the degree of income-related health inequalities. This paper empirically assesses the magnitude of rural/urban disparities in income-related adult health status, i.e., self-assessed health (SAH) and physical activity limitation, using Concentration Indices. It then uses decomposition methods to unravel the causes of inequalities and their variations across urban and rural populations. Data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) 2006 are used. The study finds that the poor are less likely to report their health status as "excellent or good" and are more likely to have physical activity limitation. Such inequality is more pronounced for the urban population than for the rural population. Results from the decomposition analysis suggest that, for the urban population, 76.47 per cent to 79.07 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic/socioeconomic-related factors, among which income, job status and educational level are the most important factors. For the rural population, 48.19 per cent to 77.78 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic factors. Income and educational attainment appear to have a prominent influence on inequality. The findings suggest that policy targeting the poor, especially the urban poor, is needed in order to reduce health inequality.

  2. The less healthy urban population: income-related health inequality in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Health inequality has been recognized as a problem all over the world. In China, the poor usually have less access to healthcare than the better-off, despite having higher levels of need. Since the proportion of the Chinese population living in urban areas increased tremendously with the urbanization movements, attention has been paid to the association between urban/rural residence and population health. It is important to understand the variation in health across income groups, and in particular to take into account the effects of urban/rural residence on the degree of income-related health inequalities. Methods This paper empirically assesses the magnitude of rural/urban disparities in income-related adult health status, i.e., self-assessed health (SAH) and physical activity limitation, using Concentration Indices. It then uses decomposition methods to unravel the causes of inequalities and their variations across urban and rural populations. Data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) 2006 are used. Results The study finds that the poor are less likely to report their health status as “excellent or good” and are more likely to have physical activity limitation. Such inequality is more pronounced for the urban population than for the rural population. Results from the decomposition analysis suggest that, for the urban population, 76.47 per cent to 79.07 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic/socioeconomic-related factors, among which income, job status and educational level are the most important factors. For the rural population, 48.19 per cent to 77.78 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic factors. Income and educational attainment appear to have a prominent influence on inequality. Conclusion The findings suggest that policy targeting the poor, especially the urban poor, is needed in order to reduce health inequality. PMID:22989200

  3. The less healthy urban population: income-related health inequality in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Wei

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health inequality has been recognized as a problem all over the world. In China, the poor usually have less access to healthcare than the better-off, despite having higher levels of need. Since the proportion of the Chinese population living in urban areas increased tremendously with the urbanization movements, attention has been paid to the association between urban/rural residence and population health. It is important to understand the variation in health across income groups, and in particular to take into account the effects of urban/rural residence on the degree of income-related health inequalities. Methods This paper empirically assesses the magnitude of rural/urban disparities in income-related adult health status, i.e., self-assessed health (SAH and physical activity limitation, using Concentration Indices. It then uses decomposition methods to unravel the causes of inequalities and their variations across urban and rural populations. Data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS 2006 are used. Results The study finds that the poor are less likely to report their health status as “excellent or good” and are more likely to have physical activity limitation. Such inequality is more pronounced for the urban population than for the rural population. Results from the decomposition analysis suggest that, for the urban population, 76.47 per cent to 79.07 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic/socioeconomic-related factors, among which income, job status and educational level are the most important factors. For the rural population, 48.19 per cent to 77.78 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic factors. Income and educational attainment appear to have a prominent influence on inequality. Conclusion The findings suggest that policy targeting the poor, especially the urban poor, is needed in order to reduce health inequality.

  4. The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mingxing; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Weidong; Zhang, Wenzhong

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS) methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process.

  5. The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingxing Chen

    Full Text Available The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process.

  6. Change detection of runoff-urban growth relationship in urbanised watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abas, Aisya Azizah; Hashim, Mazlan

    2014-01-01

    Urban growth has negative environmental impacts that create water-based disasters such as flash floods and storm runoff causing billions of dollars worth of damage each year. Due to serious flash floods in urbanised areas of Malaysia, water resource management is a vital issue. This paper reports on a study that has been carried out using remote sensing techniques and hydrological modelling for examining the spatial patterns changes of urban areas and its impacts on surface runoff. The estimation of surface runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS CN) method was performed by integrating both remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. Remote sensing is a data sources for monitoring urban growth by quantifying the changes of urban area and its environmental impact are then analysed by using a GIS-based hydrological model. By linking the integrated approach of remote sensing and GIS, the relationship of runoff with urban expansion are further examined. Hence, the changes in runoff due to urbanisation are analysed. This methodology is applied to the central region of Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur, where rapid urban growth has occurred over the last decade. The results showed that there was a significant between spatial patterns of urban growth and estimated runoff depth. The increase in runoff from year 2000, 2006 and 2010 are estimated about five percent

  7. China's Urban Transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pannell, Clifton

    1995-01-01

    Maintains that Chinese urbanization is proceeding rapidly in step with population growth and a structural shift in employment patterns. Discusses governmental policies and economic reforms that enhance the urbanization process. Describes four extended metropolitan areas and maintains they will be the models for future urbanization. (CFR)

  8. The impact of rapid population growth, expanding urbanisation, and other factors on development in sub-Saharan Africa: the contrasting responses of Tanzania and Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huth, M J

    1984-01-01

    This article analyzes the impact of the twin factors of rapid population growth and expanding urbanization on social and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa and compares policies that have been developed in Tanzania and Kenya in response to these factors. The principal consequences of overpopulation and overurbanization have been economic stagnation and physical and cultural malaise in urban population centers. Between 1960-80, per capita incomes in 19 countries of sub-Saharan Africa grew by less than 1%/year and 15 countries recorded a negative rate of growth in per capita income during the 1970s. Urban populations have increased at at overall rate of 6%/year as sub-Saharan Africans have migrated to cities in search of employment. Few national governments in the region have formulated longterm strategies to deal effectively with this double-faceted development constraint or have integrated new urban populations into the national economy. tanzania's development strategy is focused on the goals of socialism, rural development, and self-reliance. Urban development has remained a residual item in Tanzania's national development process, despite the fact that the urban population increased from 5.7% of the total population in 1967 to 12.7% in 1978 and is projected to comprise 24.7% by the year 2000. In contrast, Kenya, whose proportion of urban population increased from 9% to 15% between 1962 and 1979, has pursued an urban-focused development strategy. The strong urban-rural linkages of the economy have focused migration to the secondary towns. The national development plan includes urban spatial, employment, and investment policies. Although this plan constitutes a good basis for future planning, the magnitude of the urban problem is beyond the capabilities of the central government and requires the development of local capabilities.

  9. TOPICAL PROBLEMS: The phenomenological theory of world population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapitza, Sergei P.

    1996-01-01

    Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. Demographic data describe this process in a concise and quantitative way in its past and present. Analysing this development it is possible by applying the concepts of systems analysis and synergetics, to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and to project its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described practically over the whole of human history, assuming the growth rate to be proportional to the square of the number of people. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105 and the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology is the human lifespan. The demographic transition — a transition to a stabilised world population of some 14 billion in a foreseeable future — is a systemic singularity and is determined by the inherent pattern of growth of an open system, rather than by the lack of resources. The development of a quantitative nonlinear theory of the world population is of interest for interdisciplinary research in anthropology and demography, history and sociology, for population genetics and epidemiology, for studies in evolution of humankind and the origin of man. The model also provides insight into the stability of growth and the present predicament of humankind, and provides a setting for discussing the main global problems.

  10. Fasting glucose and cardiovascular risk factors in an urban population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, R; Sarna, M; Thanvi, Jyoti; Sharma, Vibha; Gupta, V P

    2007-10-01

    To test the hypothesis that blood glucose levels in the range of normoglycemia are associated with increased cardiovascular risk we performed an epidemiological study in an urban population. Randomly selected adults > or = 20 years were studied using stratified sampling. Target sample was 1800 (men 960, women 840) of which 1123 subjects participated. Blood samples were available in 1091 subjects (60.6%, men 532, women 559). Measurement of anthropometric variables, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose and lipids was performed. Cardiovascular risk factors were determined using US Adult Treatment Panel-3 guidelines. Pearson's correlation coefficients (r) of fasting glucose with various risk factors were determined. Fasting glucose levels were classified into various groups as 126 mg/dl or known diabetes. Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors was determined in each group. There was a significant positive correlation of fasting glucose in men and women with body mass index (r = 0.20, 0.12), waist-hip ratio (0.17, 0.09), systolic blood pressure (0.07, 0.22), total cholesterol (0.21, 0.15) and triglycerides (0.21, 0.25). Prevalence (%) of cardiovascular risk factors in men and women was smoking/tobacco use in 37.6 and 11.6, hypertension in 37.0 and 37.6, overweight and obesity in 37.8 and 50.3, truncal obesity in 57.3 and 68.0, high cholesterol > or = 200 mg/dl in 37.4 and 45.8, high triglycerides > or = 150 mg/dl in 32.3 and 28.6 and metabolic syndrome in 22.9 and 31.6 percent. In various groups of fasting glucose there was an increasing trend in prevalence of overweight/obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertriglyceridaemia, and metabolic syndrome (Mantel-Haenzel X2 for trend, p fasting glucose continuous relationship of fasting glucose levels with many cardiovascular risk factors and level < 75 mg/dl is associated with the lowest prevalence.

  11. The Effectiveness of Planning Control on Urban Growth: Evidence from Hangzhou, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yizhou Wu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban sprawl presents a serious challenge for sustainable urban land use. Urban planning attempts to guarantee sustainable urban development and proper use of land resources. However, a large gap usually exists between planning and actual development. This paper aims to analyze the evolutionary characteristics of urban form and the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban planning from 1964 to 2013, using the case of Hangzhou, China. We proposed a framework that included remote sensing, landscape metrics, and control effectiveness indexes. The results indicated that urban planning failed to perform effectively in Hangzhou, reflected by the uncontrolled urban sprawl during all the planning periods. The low effectiveness of planning was resulted from multiple factors, including historical economic events that made expansion unexpected, functional orientation of planning which drove fragmented suburbanization, the ineffective methods for forecasting population and land use, and the influences by the market forces. The findings deepen the understanding of the impacts of urban planning, and provide references for making rational urban management decisions and sustainable urban land management.

  12. Urban and global populism: An analysis of Jakarta as Resilient City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustikarini, A.; Kabinawa, L. N. R. W.

    2018-03-01

    One of the important elements of friendly city is its cordiality towards diversity. Cities will naturally attract people from different nationalities to live, study and work. The rapid development of cities has long been regarded as major drive of urbanization from other areas which contributed to the high level of ethnic and race diversities. However diversity is currently seen under threat due to the rise of global populism that is mainly fuelled by anxiety over economic condition. The growth of nationalist movement, anti-immigrant parties and xenophobia is gaining foothold across the planet. Against this backdrop, this paper aims at investigating the nexus between diversity and inequality in Jakarta. The current local election provides example of these two competing concepts. Jakarta as emerging global city with diverse communities had been marred by public protest and narration of identity issues. On the other hands, populism has deep root in severe economic inequality among the residents. A robust development in Jakarta has been marked by concentration of wealth in the hands of few. This paper presents case study on the root causes of growing populism and its relations with inequality in Jakarta.

  13. A coupled model approach to reduce nonpoint-source pollution resulting from predicted urban growth: A case study in the Ambos Nogales watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, L.M.; Guertin, D.P.; Feller, M.

    2008-01-01

    The development of new approaches for understanding processes of urban development and their environmental effects, as well as strategies for sustainable management, is essential in expanding metropolitan areas. This study illustrates the potential of linking urban growth and watershed models to identify problem areas and support long-term watershed planning. Sediment is a primary source of nonpoint-source pollution in surface waters. In urban areas, sediment is intermingled with other surface debris in transport. In an effort to forecast the effects of development on surface-water quality, changes predicted in urban areas by the SLEUTH urban growth model were applied in the context of erosion-sedimentation models (Universal Soil Loss Equation and Spatially Explicit Delivery Models). The models are used to simulate the effect of excluding hot-spot areas of erosion and sedimentation from future urban growth and to predict the impacts of alternative erosion-control scenarios. Ambos Nogales, meaning 'both Nogaleses,' is a name commonly used for the twin border cities of Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico. The Ambos Nogales watershed has experienced a decrease in water quality as a result of urban development in the twin-city area. Population growth rates in Ambos Nogales are high and the resources set in place to accommodate the rapid population influx will soon become overburdened. Because of its remote location and binational governance, monitoring and planning across the border is compromised. One scenario described in this research portrays an improvement in water quality through the identification of high-risk areas using models that simulate their protection from development and replanting with native grasses, while permitting the predicted and inevitable growth elsewhere. This is meant to add to the body of knowledge about forecasting the impact potential of urbanization on sediment delivery to streams for sustainable development, which can be

  14. Population Invasion” versus Urban Exclusion in the Tibetan Areas of Western China

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Andrew Martín

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis article examines the confluence of local population transitions (demographic transition and urbanization) with non-local in-migration in the Tibetan areas of western China. The objective is to assess the validity of Tibetan perceptions of "population invasion" by Han Chinese and Chinese Muslims. The article argues that migration to Tibet from other regions in China has been concentrated in urban areas and has been counterbalanced by more rapid rates of natural increase in the...

  15. Urbanization is Associated with Increased Trends in Cardiovascular Mortality Among Indigenous Populations: the PAI Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anderson da Costa Armstrong

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: The cardiovascular risk burden among diverse indigenous populations is not totally known and may be influenced by lifestyle changes related to the urbanization process. Objectives: To investigate the cardiovascular (CV mortality profile of indigenous populations during a rapid urbanization process largely influenced by governmental infrastructure interventions in Northeast Brazil. Methods: We assessed the mortality of indigenous populations (≥ 30 y/o from 2007 to 2011 in Northeast Brazil (Bahia and Pernambuco states. Cardiovascular mortality was considered if the cause of death was in the ICD-10 CV disease group or if registered as sudden death. The indigenous populations were then divided into two groups according to the degree of urbanization based on anthropological criteria:9,10 Group 1 - less urbanized tribes (Funi-ô, Pankararu, Kiriri, and Pankararé; and Group 2 - more urbanized tribes (Tuxá, Truká, and Tumbalalá. Mortality rates of highly urbanized cities (Petrolina and Juazeiro in the proximity of indigenous areas were also evaluated. The analysis explored trends in the percentage of CV mortality for each studied population. Statistical significance was established for p value < 0.05. Results: There were 1,333 indigenous deaths in tribes of Bahia and Pernambuco (2007-2011: 281 in Group 1 (1.8% of the 2012 group population and 73 in Group 2 (3.7% of the 2012 group population, CV mortality of 24% and 37%, respectively (p = 0.02. In 2007-2009, there were 133 deaths in Group 1 and 44 in Group 2, CV mortality of 23% and 34%, respectively. In 2009-2010, there were 148 deaths in Group 1 and 29 in Group 2, CV mortality of 25% and 41%, respectively. Conclusions: Urbanization appears to influence increases in CV mortality of indigenous peoples living in traditional tribes. Lifestyle and environmental changes due to urbanization added to suboptimal health care may increase CV risk in this population.

  16. Effects of Population Growth and Climate Variability on Sustainable Groundwater in Mali, West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Lutz

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater is increasingly relied on as a source of potable water in developing countries, but factors such as population growth, development, and climate variability, pose potential challenges for ongoing sustainable supply. The effect of these factors on the groundwater system was considered in four scenarios using a numerical model to represent the Bani area of Mali, West Africa. By 2040, population growth, climate variability, and development as urbanization, agriculture, and industry creates scenarios in which groundwater extraction is an increasingly larger percentage of the groundwater system. Consumption from agriculture and industry increases extraction rates from less than 1 to 3.8% of mean annual precipitation, which will likely affect the groundwater system. For instance, concentrated pumping in local areas may result in water level declines. The results of this study contribute to an ongoing evaluation of sustainable groundwater resources in West Africa.

  17. Mapping forest structure, species gradients and growth in an urban area using lidar and hyperspectral imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Huan

    Urban forests play an important role in the urban ecosystem by providing a range of ecosystem services. Characterization of forest structure, species variation and growth in urban forests is critical for understanding the status, function and process of urban ecosystems, and helping maximize the benefits of urban ecosystems through management. The development of methods and applications to quantify urban forests using remote sensing data has lagged the study of natural forests due to the heterogeneity and complexity of urban ecosystems. In this dissertation, I quantify and map forest structure, species gradients and forest growth in an urban area using discrete-return lidar, airborne imaging spectroscopy and thermal infrared data. Specific objectives are: (1) to demonstrate the utility of leaf-off lidar originally collected for topographic mapping to characterize and map forest structure and associated uncertainties, including aboveground biomass, basal area, diameter, height and crown size; (2) to map species gradients using forest structural variables estimated from lidar and foliar functional traits, vegetation indices derived from AVIRIS hyperspectral imagery in conjunction with field-measured species data; and (3) to identify factors related to relative growth rates in aboveground biomass in the urban forests, and assess forest growth patterns across areas with varying degree of human interactions. The findings from this dissertation are: (1) leaf-off lidar originally acquired for topographic mapping provides a robust, potentially low-cost approach to quantify spatial patterns of forest structure and carbon stock in urban areas; (2) foliar functional traits and vegetation indices from hyperspectral data capture gradients of species distributions in the heterogeneous urban landscape; (3) species gradients, stand structure, foliar functional traits and temperature are strongly related to forest growth in the urban forests; and (4) high uncertainties in our

  18. Urban Fault Lines in Shangri-La: Population and Economic Foundations of Inter-Ethnic Conflict in the Tibetan Areas of Western China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.M. Fischer (Andrew Martín)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractThis paper argues that contemporary experiences of social exclusion and interethnic conflict in the Tibetan areas of Western China are interrelated and revolve around three processes – population, growth and employment – all of which centre on the urban areas. In this setting, the

  19. Urban Fault Lines in Shangri-La: Population and economic foundations of interethnic conflict in the Tibetan areas of Western China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.M. Fischer (Andrew Martín)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractThis paper argues that contemporary experiences of social exclusion and interethnic conflict in the Tibetan areas of Western China are interrelated and revolve around three processes – population, growth and employment – all of which centre on the urban areas. In this setting, the

  20. Climate Change Adaptation. Challenges and Opportunities for a Smart Urban Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Galderisi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the main environmental issues challenging cities in the 21th century. At present, more than half of the world population lives in cities and the latter are responsible for 60% to 80% of global energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, which are the main causes of the change in climate conditions. In the meantime, they are seriously threatened by the heterogeneous climate-related phenomena, very often exacerbated by the features of the cities themselves. In the last decade, international and European efforts have been mainly focused on mitigation rather than on adaptation strategies. Europe is one of the world leaders in global mitigation policies, while the issue of adaptation has gained growing importance in the last years. As underlined by the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, even though climate change mitigation still remains a priority for the global community, large room has to be devoted to adaptation measures, in order to effectively face the unavoidable impacts and related economic, environmental and social costs of climate change (EC, 2013. Thus, measures for adaptation to climate change are receiving an increasing financial support and a growing number of European countries are implementing national and urban adaptation strategies to deal with the actual and potential climate change impacts. According to the above considerations, this paper explores strengths and weaknesses of current adaptation strategies in European cities. First the main suggestions of the European Community to improve urban adaptation to climate change are examined; then, some recent Adaptation Plans are analyzed, in order to highlight challenges and opportunities arising from the adaptation processes at urban level and to explore the potential of Adaptation Plans to promote a smart growth in the European cities.

  1. Constructing an Urban Population Model for Medical Insurance Scheme Using Microsimulation Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linping Xiong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available China launched a pilot project of medical insurance reform in 79 cities in 2007 to cover urban nonworking residents. An urban population model was created in this paper for China’s medical insurance scheme using microsimulation model techniques. The model made it clear for the policy makers the population distributions of different groups of people, the potential urban residents entering the medical insurance scheme. The income trends of units of individuals and families were also obtained. These factors are essential in making the challenging policy decisions when considering to balance the long-term financial sustainability of the medical insurance scheme.

  2. Firm dynamic analysis for urban land use and economic growth modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Che'Man, N.; Sabri, S.; Hosni, N.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    In urban growth processes, urbanisation is highly influenced by economic growth which triggers the dynamics of economic agents and land uses. This is consisted of complex subsystems which need sophisticated methods like agent-based modelling and simulation to understand the pattern, behaviour and

  3. Population growth, human development, and deforestation in biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, S; Bawa, K S

    2006-06-01

    Human population and development activities affect the rate of deforestation in biodiversity hotspots. We quantified the effect of human population growth and development on rates of deforestation and analyzed the relationship between these causal factors in the 1980s and 1990s. We compared the averages of population growth, human development index (HDI, which measures income, health, and education), and deforestation rate and computed correlations among these variables for countries that contain biodiversity hotspots. When population growth was high and HDI was low there was a high rate of deforestation, but when HDI was high, rate of deforestation was low, despite high population growth. The correlation among variables was significant for the 1990s but not for the 1980s. The relationship between population growth and HDI had a regional pattern that reflected the historical process of development. Based on the changes in HDI and deforestation rate over time, we identified two drivers of deforestation: policy choice and human-development constraints. Policy choices that disregard conservation may cause the loss of forests even in countries that are relatively developed. Lack of development in other countries, on the other hand, may increase the pressure on forests to meet the basic needs of the human population. Deforestation resulting from policy choices may be easier to fix than deforestation arising from human development constraints. To prevent deforestation in the countries that have such constraints, transfer of material and intellectual resources from developed countries may be needed. Popular interest in sustainable development in developed countries can facilitate the transfer of these resources.

  4. Civilizing the city: populism and revanchist urbanism in Rotterdam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uitermark, J.; Duyvendak, J.W.

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses the relevance of American literature on ‘revanchist urbanism’ for understanding the policies of the populist government that ruled Rotterdam between 2002 and 2006. It is suggested that revanchist urbanism in the European context in general and in the case of Rotterdam in

  5. Personality Traits and Behavioral Syndromes in Differently Urbanized Populations of House Sparrows (Passer domesticus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bókony, Veronika; Kulcsár, Anna; Tóth, Zoltán; Liker, András

    2012-01-01

    Urbanization creates novel environments for wild animals where selection pressures may differ drastically from those in natural habitats. Adaptation to urban life involves changes in various traits, including behavior. Behavioral traits often vary consistently among individuals, and these so-called personality traits can be correlated with each other, forming behavioral syndromes. Despite their adaptive significance and potential to act as constraints, little is known about the role of animal personality and behavioral syndromes in animals' adaptation to urban habitats. In this study we tested whether differently urbanized habitats select for different personalities and behavioral syndromes by altering the population mean, inter-individual variability, and correlations of personality traits. We captured house sparrows (Passer domesticus) from four different populations along the gradient of urbanization and assessed their behavior in standardized test situations. We found individual consistency in neophobia, risk taking, and activity, constituting three personality axes. On the one hand, urbanization did not consistently affect the mean and variance of these traits, although there were significant differences between some of the populations in food neophobia and risk taking (both in means and variances). On the other hand, both urban and rural birds exhibited a behavioral syndrome including object neophobia, risk taking and activity, whereas food neophobia was part of the syndrome only in rural birds. These results indicate that there are population differences in certain aspects of personality in house sparrows, some of which may be related to habitat urbanization. Our findings suggest that urbanization and/or other population-level habitat differences may not only influence the expression of personality traits but also alter their inter-individual variability and the relationships among them, changing the structure of behavioral syndromes. PMID:22574204

  6. Hourly Water Quality Dynamics in Rivers Downstream of Urban Areas: Quantifying Seasonal Variation and Modelling Impacts of Urban Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchins, M.; McGrane, S. J.; Miller, J. D.; Hitt, O.; Bowes, M.

    2016-12-01

    Continuous monitoring of water flows and quality is invaluable in improving understanding of the influence of urban areas on river health. When used to inform predictive modelling, insights can be gained as to how urban growth may affect the chemical and biological quality of rivers as they flow downstream into larger waterbodies. Water flow and quality monitoring in two urbanising sub-catchments (long term flow records are available, but particular focus is given to monitoring of an extended set of sites during prolonged winter rainfall. In the Ray sub-catchment streams were monitored in which urban cover varied across a range of 7-78%. A rural-urban gradient in DO was apparent in the low flow period prior to the storms. Transient low DO (works (STW). In this respect temperature- and respiration-driven DO sags in summer were at least if not more severe than those driven by the winter storms. Likewise, although winter storm NH4 concentrations violated EU legislation downstream of the STW, they were lower than summer concentrations in pollutant flushes following dry spells. In contrast the predominant phenomenon affecting water quality in the Cut during the storms was dilution. Here, a river water quality model was calibrated and applied over the course of a year to capture the importance of periphyton photosynthesis and respiration cycles in determining water quality and to predict the influence of hypothetical urban growth on downstream river health. The periods monitored intensively, dry spells followed by prolonged rainfall, represent: (i) marked changes in conditions likely to become more prevalent in future, (ii) situations under which water quality in urban areas is likely to be particularly vulnerable, being influenced for example by first flush effects followed by capacity exceedance at STW. Despite this, whilst being somewhat long lasting in places, impacts on DO were not severe.

  7. Identifying the Risk Areas and Urban Growth by ArcGIS-Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Hamdy

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abouelreesh is one of the most at risk areas in Aswan, Egypt, which suffers from storms, poor drainage, and flash flooding. These phenomena affect the urban areas and cause a lot of damage to buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, the potential for the further realization of dangerous situations increased when the urban areas of Abouelreesh extended towards the risk areas. In an effort to ameliorate the danger, two key issues for urban growth management were studied, namely: (i estimations regarding the pace of urban sprawl, and (ii the identification of urban areas located in regions that would be affected by flash floods. Analyzing these phenomena require a lot of data in order to obtain good results, but in our case, the official data or field data was limited so we tried to obtain it by accessing two kinds of free sources of satellite data. First, we used Arc GIS tools to analyze (digital elevation model (DEM files in order to study the watershed and better identify the risk area. Second, we studied historical imagery in Google Earth to determine the age of each urban block. The urban growth rate in the risk areas had risen to 63.31% in 2001. Urban growth in the case study area had been influenced by house sizes, because most people were looking to live in bigger houses. The aforementioned problem can be observed by considering the increasing average house sizes from 2001 until 2013, where, especially in risky areas, the average of house sizes had grown from 223 m2 in 2001 to 318 m2 in 2013. The findings from this study would be useful to urban planners and government officials in helping them to make informed decisions on urban development to benefit the community, especially those living in areas at risk from flash flooding from heavy rain events.

  8. Inflation, GDP growth and population change in the USA

    OpenAIRE

    Ivan Kitov

    2005-01-01

    Inflation in the USA between 1960 and 2004 is studied in the framework of the revealed rigidity of the personal income distribution normalized to the total nominal GDP. Inflation is found to be a mechanism, which prevents changes in the relative incomes induced by economic growth and population changes - both in number and age structure. A model is developed linking CPI to GDP growth rate and relative change of the number of people of some specific age. The GDP growth rate is characterized by...

  9. Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

    2009-05-01

    We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1

  10. Myocardial infarction in Québec rural and urban populations between 1995 and 1997.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loslier, Julie; Vanasse, Alain; Niyonsenga, Théophile; Courteau, Josiane; Orzanco, Gabriela; Hemiari, Abbas

    2007-01-01

    There is abundant evidence of health inequities between urban and rural populations. The purpose of this paper is to describe the socioeconomic characteristics of Québec urban and rural populations and the relation between rurality and incidence of myocardial infarction (MI), care management and outcomes. Socioeconomic data by census subdivisions were available from the 1996 Canadian census, representing 7,137,245 individuals. Data on patients with MI were taken from the provincial administrative health database (MED-ECHO), which is managed by the Ministry of Health and contains clinical and demographic information collected when patients are released from acute care hospitals in Québec. We included a total of 37,678 cases compiled over the 3 years of follow-up in the analyses. Residents of rural areas with low urban influence have higher MI incidence rates than all of the other populations in the study. In comparison with urban populations, their observed rural counterparts are at a disadvantage with regard to education, employment and income. Although angioplasty and coronary artery bypass graft surgery rates were higher in more urban areas, the survival rate was lower than in rural areas. This study revealed geographic heterogeneity of MI incidence, revascularization rates and survival rates among urban and rural populations.

  11. Urban and rural land use in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian Martinuzzi; William A. Gould; Olga M. Ramos Gonzalez; Maya Quinones; Michael E. Jimenez

    2008-01-01

    We have developed three land use regions for Puerto Rico: Urban, Suburban, and Rural (Gould et al. 2008; Martinuzzi et al. 2007). These three regions can also be considered urban, densely-populated rural, and sparsely-populated rural or as urban and wildland with a wildland-urban interface. The suburban use is the most dynamic in terms of population growth and land...

  12. Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, R

    1983-01-01

    There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: demographic influences on household or family behavior; population growth and reproducible capital; population size and fixed factors; and population and advantages of scale. These 4 models emphasize the supply side effects of population. A few of the ways in which these theories have been combined are sketched. Neoclassical growth models often have been combined with age distributed populations of individuals (or households), assumed to pursue optimal life cycle consumption and saving. In some well known development models, neoclassical growth models for the modern sector are linked by labor markets and migration to fixed factor (land) models of the traditional (agricultural) sector. A whole series of macro simulation models for developed and developing countries was based on single sector neoclassical growth models with age distributed populations. Yet, typically the household level foundations of assumed age distribution effects were not worked out. Simon's (1977) simulation models are in a class by themselves, for they are the only models that attempt to incorporate all the kinds of effects discussed. The economic demography of the individual and family cycle, as it is affected by regimes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, taken as given, are considered. The examination touches on many of the purported consequences of aggregate population growth and age composition, since so many of these are based implicitly or explicitly on assertions about micro level behavior. Demographic influences on saving and consumption, on general labor supply and female labor supply, and on problems of youth and old age dependency frequently fall in this category. Finally, attention is focused specifically on macro economic issues in

  13. The relationship between population growth and poverty in Africa: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mainstream view from these debates and discussions is that rapid population growth in Africa has put pressure on the environment, leading to environmental degradation which translates into shortfall in food production and atrophied development. This view is as a result of ritualistic adherence to narrow ideological ...

  14. Is There Hidden Potential for Rural Population Growth in Sweden?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niedomysl, Thomas; Amcoff, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Rural depopulation is a concern in many countries, and various policy initiatives have been taken to combat such trends. This article examines whether hidden potential for rural population growth can be found in Sweden. If such potential exists, it implies that the development prospects for many rural areas are not as unpromising as they may seem…

  15. The Vatican & Population Growth Control: Why an American Confrontation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumford, Stephen D.

    1983-01-01

    The Vatican, because of its position on population growth, threatens the security of all nations. Catholic countries with right-wing dictatorships cannot confront the Vatican on family planning and survive. U.S. Catholics must confront the Vatican on this issue. American lay Catholics must break the American church away from the Vatican control.…

  16. 525 Population Growth, Hysteresis and Development Outcomes in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    technique of analysis is the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound test for long-run ..... Where; y is the actual income; λ is the adjustment factor and gy is output per ... income per capita if population growth leaves the ratio of workers to total ..... 0.00 and 0.01 probability values are not normally distributed around the.

  17. Urban versus rural populations' views of health care in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Jane; Hinds, Kerstin; Richards, Helen; Godden, David

    2005-10-01

    To compare satisfaction with, and expectations of, health care of people in rural and urban areas of Scotland. Questions were included in the 2002 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey (SSAS). The Scottish House-hold Survey urban-rural classification was used to categorize locations. A random sample of 2707 people was contacted to participate in a face-to-face interview and a self-completion questionnaire survey. SPSS (v.10) was used to analyse the data. Relationships between location category and responses were explored using logistic regression analysis. In all, 1665 (61.5%) interviews were conducted and 1507 (56.0%) respondents returned self-completion questionnaires. Satisfaction with local doctors and hospital services was higher in rural locations. While around 40% of those living in remote areas thought A&E services too distant, this did not rank as a top priority for health service improvement. This could be due to expectations that general practitioners would assist in out-of-hours emergencies. Most Scots thought services should be good in rural areas even if this was costly, and that older people should not be discouraged from moving to rural areas because of their likely health care needs. In all, 79% of respondents thought that care should be as good in rural as urban areas. Responses to many questions were independently significantly affected by rural/urban location. Most Scots want rural health care to continue to be good, but the new UK National Health Service (NHS) general practitioner contract and service redesign will impact on provision. Current high satisfaction, likely to be due to access and expectations about local help, could be affected. This study provides baseline data on attitudes and expectations before potential service redesign, which should be monitored at intervals in future.

  18. Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

    2018-03-01

    Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

  19. Coping with Migration-Induced Urban Growth: Addressing the Blind Spot of UN Habitat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Aerni

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The demography of cities in the 21st century will be shaped, to a large extent, by migration. This paper argues that the rights-based approach to urban policy advocated in the preparatory work of Habitat III, the UN Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development to be held in October 2016 in Quito, Ecuador, may not be conducive to this goal. The approach lacks a contextual and dynamic understanding of urbanization. It implicitly assumes that a growing and expansive urban economy would primarily benefit the rich and harm the poor. The resulting containment policies to stop “urban sprawl” and defend “the right to the city” can, however, be counterproductive if adopted in cities in less developed countries (LDCs that grow fast due to internal migration. Attempts to limit urban growth may merely lead to more informal settlements, less affordable housing, and increasing costs of doing business. In other words, it may benefit the rich and harm the poor. LDCs should, therefore, refrain from adopting defensive urban policies mostly advocated by more developed countries (MDCs and, instead, plan for sustainable urban expansion designed to improve access to essential urban services and to create a level playing field for newcomers in business. In this context, urban policies may build upon the basic insights of the late urbanist Jane Jacobs. She recognized that the vital function of cities is to provide affordable infrastructure and an institutional environment that enable migrants and other marginal urban communities to contribute to urban prosperity and problem-solving with their skills, networks, and entrepreneurial minds. The resulting social and economic empowerment increases access to essential human rights and ensures that cities become more inclusive, resilient, and sustainable.

  20. Urban growth trends in midsize Chilean cities: the case of Temuco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Marchant Santiago

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Academic production about the main Chilean cities exceeds the existing documentation on intermediate cities, though they have shown interesting trends patterns in recent years which have changed the urban system in Chile. This paper aims to analyze the urban growth processes in Chilean intermediate cities using Temuco as a case study. It begins with an historical look at the city and then mentions that in the last decades this kind of cities have undergone new forms of segregation associated to real estate activities such as private communities, rural residential properties and new localization of services which have resulted in a fragmentation of urban space, a phenomenon reinforced by the consolidation of some satellite cities. At the same time, many urban problems associated to poverty, like a standstill of the regional economy and environmental pollution have appeared, jeopardizing the sustainability of these spaces, questioning current development parameters. The article ends considering the future challenges in Temuco’s urban development.

  1. Morbidity, rickets and long-bone growth in post-medieval Britain--a cross-population analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinhasi, R; Shaw, P; White, B; Ogden, A R

    2006-01-01

    Vitamin D deficiency rickets is associated with skeletal deformities including swollen rib junctions, bowing of the legs, and the flaring and fraying of the wrist and long-bone metaphyses. There is, however, scarce information on the direct effect of rickets on skeletal growth in either present or past populations. The study investigated the effect of vitamin D deficiency rickets on long-bone growth in two post-medieval skeletal populations from East London (Broadgate and Christ Church Spitalfields). Subsequently, inter-population growth variations in relation to non-specific environmental stress (dental enamel defects), industrialization, urbanization and socio-economic status during infancy (birth to 3 years) and early childhood (3-7 years) were examined. Data on long-bone diaphyseal length dimensions and stress indicators of 234 subadults from Anglo-Saxon, late medieval and post-medieval archaeological skeletal samples were analysed using both linear and non-linear growth models. Rickets had no effect on the growth curves for any of the long bones studied. However, pronounced variations in growth between the four populations were noted, mainly during infancy. The diaphyseal length of long bones of Broadgate were significantly smaller-per-age than those of Spitalfields and the other samples up to the age of 4 years, and were associated with a high prevalence of enamel defects during early infancy. Socio-economic status, rather than urbanization, industrialization or rickets, was the central factor behind the observed differences in growth among the post-medieval populations. The observed inter-population growth variations were only significant during infancy.

  2. Dynamic assessments of population exposure to urban greenspace using multi-source big data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yimeng; Huang, Bo; Cai, Jixuan; Chen, Bin

    2018-09-01

    A growing body of evidence has proven that urban greenspace is beneficial to improve people's physical and mental health. However, knowledge of population exposure to urban greenspace across different spatiotemporal scales remains unclear. Moreover, the majority of existing environmental assessments are unable to quantify how residents enjoy their ambient greenspace during their daily life. To deal with this challenge, we proposed a dynamic method to assess urban greenspace exposure with the integration of mobile-phone locating-request (MPL) data and high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images. This method was further applied to 30 major cities in China by assessing cities' dynamic greenspace exposure levels based on residents' surrounding areas with different buffer scales (0.5km, 1km, and 1.5km). Results showed that regarding residents' 0.5-km surrounding environment, Wenzhou and Hangzhou were found to be with the greenest exposure experience, whereas Zhengzhou and Tangshan were the least ones. The obvious diurnal and daily variations of population exposure to their surrounding greenspace were also identified to be highly correlated with the distribution pattern of urban greenspace and the dynamics of human mobility. Compared with two common measurements of urban greenspace (green coverage rate and green area per capita), the developed method integrated the dynamics of population distribution and geographic locations of urban greenspace into the exposure assessment, thereby presenting a more reasonable way to assess population exposure to urban greenspace. Additionally, this dynamic framework could hold potential utilities in supporting urban planning studies and environmental health studies and advancing our understanding of the magnitude of population exposure to greenspace at different spatiotemporal scales. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Monitoring of urban growth in the state of Hidalgo using Landsat images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Cano Salinas

    2017-03-01

    Given this background, this paper is focused on the generation of geographic information for regional urban planning and the overall aim is to examine urban growth rate during the period 2000-2014 in the state of Hidalgo, Mexico and identify potential areas of expansion from Landsat images. The methodology was based on techniques of remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS. The inputs used were six Landsat scenes: three for 2000 year and three for 2014. Image processing was performed on ERDAS Imagine® 9.1 and the spatial analysis of urban coverage statewide on ArcGIS 10.0 by ESRI®. First, the radiometric correction was made and we obtained the urban polygons of the 2000 year through of supervised classification. The 2014 urban layer was digitized manually due to the spectral incompatibility between the bands of the Landsat sensor 5 and 7, and the Landsat sensor 8. Then, we build a road density map and the spatial relationship of the urban centers with the road influence area was evaluated. For the year 2000, 103 urban polygons were mapped, whilst for 2014 were identified ten polygons more with a mapped minimum area of 24 ha. The main results indicated that in the state has increased 72.3 km2 urban area from 2000 to 2014. This represents an average growth rate of 1.8% per year. The most widespread municipalities are located in the region of Valle del Mezquital, however, Mineral de la Reforma, Tetepango, Tizayuca and Pachuca showed growth rates of 183.44%, 102% 94% and 68.5% in fourteen years, respectively. According to the road map density, these municipalities are located in areas of greatest influence of infrastructure as the Arco Norte highway in the state. The above findings, lead us to conclude that the Mezquital Valley and the Basin of Mexico are potential areas of urban spreading and it is associated with road development in the Central Mexico.

  4. Population Invasion” versus Urban Exclusion in the Tibetan Areas of Western China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.M. Fischer (Andrew Martín)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis article examines the confluence of local population transitions (demographic transition and urbanization) with non-local in-migration in the Tibetan areas of western China. The objective is to assess the validity of Tibetan perceptions of "population invasion" by Han Chinese and

  5. Population and prehistory I: Food-dependent population growth in constant environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Charlotte T; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    2008-06-01

    We present a demographic model that describes the feedbacks between food supply, human mortality and fertility rates, and labor availability in expanding populations, where arable land area is not limiting. This model provides a quantitative framework to describe how environment, technology, and culture interact to influence the fates of preindustrial agricultural populations. We present equilibrium conditions and derive approximations for the equilibrium population growth rate, food availability, and other food-dependent measures of population well-being. We examine how the approximations respond to environmental changes and to human choices, and find that the impact of environmental quality depends upon whether it manifests through agricultural yield or maximum (food-independent) survival rates. Human choices can complement or offset environmental effects: greater labor investments increase both population growth and well-being, and therefore can counteract lower agricultural yield, while fertility control decreases the growth rate but can increase or decrease well-being. Finally we establish equilibrium stability criteria, and argue that the potential for loss of local stability at low population growth rates could have important consequences for populations that suffer significant environmental or demographic shocks.

  6. Urban Growth and Land-Use Structure in Two Mediterranean Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Salvati

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study develops an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA with the aim to assess changes over time in the distribution of selected uses of land in two Mediterranean urban regions (Rome and Athens with different morphology and economic functions. The study uses global and local Moran’s indexes of spatial autocorrelation to describe the land-use structure observed in the two cities in mid-1970s and late-2000s, and debates on the divergent contribution of compact growth and scattered urban expansion to changes in land use. The analysis identifies fringe landscapes as a key target for urban containment policies in sprawling cities.

  7. Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

    2017-11-14

    Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  8. Habitat-specific population growth of a farmland bird.

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    Debora Arlt

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: To assess population persistence of species living in heterogeneous landscapes, the effects of habitat on reproduction and survival have to be investigated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a matrix population model to estimate habitat-specific population growth rates for a population of northern wheatears Oenanthe oenanthe breeding in farmland consisting of a mosaic of distinct habitat (land use types. Based on extensive long-term data on reproduction and survival, habitats characterised by tall field layers (spring- and autumn-sown crop fields, ungrazed grasslands displayed negative stochastic population growth rates (log lambda(s: -0.332, -0.429, -0.168, respectively, that were markedly lower than growth rates of habitats characterised by permanently short field layers (pastures grazed by cattle or horses, and farmyards, log lambda(s: -0.056, +0.081, -0.059. Although habitats differed with respect to reproductive performance, differences in habitat-specific population growth were largely due to differences in adult and first-year survival rates, as shown by a life table response experiment (LTRE. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results show that estimation of survival rates is important for realistic assessments of habitat quality. Results also indicate that grazed grasslands and farmyards may act as source habitats, whereas crop fields and ungrazed grasslands with tall field layers may act as sink habitats. We suggest that the strong decline of northern wheatears in Swedish farmland may be linked to the corresponding observed loss of high quality breeding habitat, i.e. grazed semi-natural grasslands.

  9. Prediction of future urban growth using CA-Markov for urban sustainability planning of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achmad, A.; Irwansyah, M.; Ramli, I.

    2018-03-01

    Banda Aceh experienced rapid growth, both physically, socially, and economically, after the Tsunami that devastated it the end of December in 2004. Hence policy controls are needed to direct the pattern of urban growth to achieve sustainable development for the future. The purpose of this paper is to generate a growth model for Banda Aceh using the CA-Markov process. By knowing the changes in land use between 2005 and 2009 from the results of previous research, simulations for 2013, 2019 and 2029 using the application of Idrisi@Selva. CA-Markov models were prepared to determine the quantity of changes. The simulation results showed that, after the Tsunami, the City of Banda Aceh tended to grow towards the coast. For the control of the LUC, the Banda Aceh City government needs to prepare comprehensive and detailed maps and inventory of LUC for the city to provide basic data and information needed for monitoring and evaluation that can be done effectively and efficiently. An institution for monitoring and evaluation of the urban landscape and the LUC should be formed immediately. This institution could consist of representatives from government, academia, community leaders, the private sector and other experts. The findings from this study can be used to start the monitoring and evaluation of future urban growth. Especially for the coastal areas, the local government should immediately prepare special spatial coastal area plans to control growth in those areas and to ensure that the economic benefits from disaster mitigation and coastal protection are preserved. For the development of the city in the future, it is necessary to achieve a balance between economic development, and social welfare with environmental protection and disaster mitigation. iIt will become a big challenge to achieve sustainable development for the future.

  10. Landscape analysis of urban growth patterns in Seremban, Malaysia, using spatio-temporal data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aburas, Maher M.; Abdullah, Sabrina H.; Ramli, Mohammad F.; As'shari, Zulfa H.

    2016-06-01

    Urban growth is one of the major issues that have played a significant role in destroying the ecosystem in recent years. Landscape analysis is an important technique widely used to evaluate urban growth patterns. In this study, four land-use maps from 1984, 1990, 2000, and 2010 have been used to analyze an urban landscape. The values of a built-up area were initially computed using a geographic information system environment based on the spatial gradient approach. Mathematical matrices were then used to determine the amount of change in urban patches in each direction. Results of the number of patches, landscape shape index, aggregation index, and total edges confirmed that the urban patches in Seremban, Malaysia, have become more dispersed from 2000 to 2010. The urban patches have also become more continuous, especially in the north-western part of Seremban as a result of the urban development in the Nilai District. These results indicate the necessity to create new policies in the city to protect the sustainability of the land use of Seremban.

  11. Urban Optimum Population Size and Development Pattern Based on Ecological Footprint Model: Case of Zhoushan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan LU

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The agglomeration of population in the city can reflect the prosperity in the economy, society and culture. However, it has also brought a series of problems like environmental pollution, traffic congestion, housing shortage and jobs crisis. The results can be shown as the failure of urban comprehensive function, the decline of city benefits, and the contradiction between socioeconomic circumstance and ecosystem. Therefore, a reasonable population capacity, which is influenced by ecological resources, urban environment, geographical elements, social and economic factors, etc., is objectively needed. How to deal with the relationship between the utilization of natural capital and development of the city is extremely essential. This paper takes Zhoushan Island as an example, which is the fourth largest island off the coast of China. Firstly, the interactively influencing factors of urban optimal population are illustrated. And method is chosen to study the optimal population size. Secondly, based on the model of ecological footprint (EP, the paper calculates and analyzes the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of the Zhoushan Island, in order to explore the optimal population size of the city. Thirdly, analysis and evaluation of the resources and urban environment carrying capacity is made. Finally, the solution of the existing population problems and the suggestion for the future development pattern of the city are proposed in the urban eco-planning of Zhoushan Island. The main strategies can be summarized in two aspects: one is to reduce the ecological footprint, the other is to increase the ecological supply. The conclusion is that the current population of Zhoushan Island is far beyond the optimum population size calculated by the ecological footprint model. Therefore, sustainable development should be the guidance for urban planning in Zhoushan Island, and a low-carbon development pattern for the city is advocated.

  12. [Obesity, body morphology, and blood pressure in urban and rural population groups of Yucatan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arroyo, Pedro; Fernández, Victoria; Loría, Alvar; Pardío, Jeannette; Laviada, Hugo; Vargas-Ancona, Lizardo; Ward, Ryk

    2007-01-01

    To characterize body morphology and blood pressure of adults of the Mexican state of Yucatan. Rural-urban differences in weight, height, waist, and hip circumferences, and blood pressure were analyzed in 313 urban and 271 rural subjects. No rural-urban differences in prevalence of obesity and overweight were found. Hypertension was marginally higher in urban subjects. Rural abnormal waist circumference was higher in young men and young women. Comparison with two national surveys and a survey in the aboriginal population (rural mixtecos) showed similar prevalence of obesity as ENSA-2000 and higher than mixtecos and ENEC-1993. Abnormal waist circumference was intermediate between ENSANUT-2006 and mixtecos and hypertension was intermediate between ENEC and mixtecos. The Maya and mestizo population of Yucatan showed a high prevalence of obesity and abnormal waist circumference not accompanied by a comparable higher hypertension frequency. This finding requires further confirmation.

  13. Urbanization in Kenya: Urbanization Trends and Prospects; Rural Development and Urban Growth. An International Urbanization Survey Report to the Ford Foundation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurenti, Luigi; Gerhart, John

    Two articles on the urbanization of Kenya are presented in this survey. The first one, "Urbanization Trends and Prospects," by Luigi Laurenti, states that urbanization has only recently been recognized as a problem of some importance in Kenya, and this recognition is far from comprehensive. Consequently, public policy--and especially…

  14. Population growth is a variable open to change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, M.

    2016-12-01

    The absolute number of people and the rate of population growth have an impact on climate mitigation, adaptation and possible conflict. Half the pregnancies in the US are unintended. Robust quantitative evidence from California demonstrates that improving access to family planning is the single most cost-effective way of mitigating our carbon footprint. Globally, there are 80 million unintended pregnancies annually. Many non-evidence barriers deprive women of the information and means required to separate sex from childbearing. Between 1960 and 1990, meeting the need for family planning led to a rapid fall in family size in much of Asia. Since 1990, funding for family planning has collapsed and fertility decline has stalled. The UN projects that by 2100 global population will increase by 3.8 billion (equal to world population in 1975). 80% of this growth will be in Africa. Studies project that climate change will undermine crop yields in parts of Africa, especially the Sahel. A high ratio of young males to the rest of the population is a risk factor in conflict. Today, only 1% of overseas assistance is allocated to family planning. Based on analysis of the past, doubling that investment would accelerate fertility decline, facilitating climate mitigation and adaptation, and possibly reducing conflict. Population and family planning were pushed off the international agenda by unacceptably and tragic episodes of coercion in China and India. However, there is compelling data that when voluntary family planning is widely available then family size can fall rapidly, as occurred in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where fertility fell more rapidly than in any other country in history. Family planning is listening to what women want not telling people want to do. Population growth is a variable open to change in a human rights framework. Population and family planning are variables relevant to the scientific agenda of the AGU.

  15. Strategies for Low-Carbon Green Growth and Urban Management in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jichung Yang

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: National policies and strategies for low-carbon green growth in Korea are reviewed in this study. Providing standards and guidelines for urban comprehensive planning and management plans is necessary so that the series of plans can deal with possible effects from climate changes. Urban planning guidelines for management and improvements to achieve low carbon green growth were set up and implemented, focusing on institutional and regulatory foundations. These deal with climate change influences on urban planning, reduction of green house gas emissions and elevation of energy efficiency based on plans of land use units. In the case of Seoul city, transit-oriented compact development, public transportation-oriented structure, green space expansion, and pleasant living spaces are implemented in relation to urban structure and land use. We should suggest systematic and comprehensive countermeasures against greenhouse gas emissions and climate changes in terms of spatial structure, transportation systems, natural resource conservation, environment management, energy and open spaces. For the Seoul mega-city, plans show the capabilities of the policy department including many policy tools. Reflecting smart city, ubiquitous city, and U-Eco city concepts and human behavior, we should move towards increasing efficiency and maintaining sustainable economic growth. KEYWORDS: Low-carbon green growth, urban management, Korea, Seoul

  16. Scaling Law between Urban Electrical Consumption and Population in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiaowu; Xiong, Aimin; Li, Liangsheng; Liu, Maoxin; Chen, X. S.

    The relation between the household electrical consumption Y and population N for Chinese cities in 2006 has been investigated with the power law scaling form Y = A_0 N^{β}. It is found that the Chinese cities should be divided into three categories characterized by different scaling exponent β. The first category, which includes the biggest and coastal cities of China, has the scaling exponent β> 1. The second category, which includes mostly the cities in central China, has the scaling exponent β ≈ 1. The third category, which consists of the cities in northwestern China, has the scaling exponent β 1, there is also a fixed point population N f . If the initial population N(0) > N f , the population increases very fast with time and diverges within a finite time. If the initial population N(0) < N f , the population decreases with time and collapse finally. The pattern of population evolution in a city is determined by its scaling exponent and initial population.

  17. Population growth to put pressure on some food supplies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    Continued high population growth in developing countries is likely to lead to intense pressure to produce more rice, according to estimates from the Manila-based International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Ms. Mercedita Sombilla, a research scientist with IRRI, said that the projected increase in Asia's population will be the major force in accelerating demand for rice. According to various issues of the ESCAP Population Data Sheet, the population of the region will have increased from 3.3 billion in 1995 to almost 4.6 billion in 2020. The greatest growth in demand is expected to come from the lower-income countries of Asia, such as Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Philippines, and Viet Nam, she said. However, in terms of overall food supplies, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that food supplies will be sufficient. "Expecting reasonably strong productivity growth to be sustainable, no global food crisis seems likely to occur" between now and 2020, the organization stated in its report entitled "The World in 2020: Towards a New Global Age". full text

  18. Trends in the growth of population and labour force in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashmi, S S

    1990-01-01

    Trends in the growth of the population and labor force in Pakistan are examined and future prospects for growth of population and labor, particularly agriculture, are estimated. The definition of labor force as employed or seeking work after a short period of employment has led to a great disparity in results for women in the labor force. Past trends in population growth reflected a growth rate of 1.6% for the 1950's, and 2.4% in 1960. The population rose to 84.3 million in 1981 from 42.6 million in 1961, which intercensally was an increase of 3.6% per annum for 1961-72 and 3.1% per annum for 1972-81. The estimated rate for 1981-86 was 2.9%/year. The rural population doubled and the urban tripled. There was a net migration of 2.123 million to urban areas reported in the 1981 census. There is also evidence of a high sex ratio. Balochistan (7.1%) and Sindh (3.6%) provinces have the highest growth rates. Although the largest population is in the Punjab, the growth is the lowest at 2.7%. The population is primarily young -- 44.5% 15 years in 1981, which is the highest in the world. Under high, medium, and low levels of fertility, prospective trends are estimated for 2006 and 2031, and by sex every 5 years from 1981. Population under high fertility is expected to reach 270 million by 2031, which is 3.39 persons/hectare. The population/hectare of land under cultivation was 4.25 in 1981 and is expected to rise to 13.49 persons/hectare in 2031. 11 million acres could be brought under cultivation to reduce the ratio. However, there are ecological considerations as well as an employment problem. The dependency ratio under the high variant will decline from 76.8 persons 0-14 and 65 years/100 persons 15-64 years in 1986 to 70.3 in 2006 which is still considerably higher than other developing countries. It is suggested that replacement level fertility be attained as soon as possible. Under low fertility, replacement level can be reached by 2011 with strong political commitment

  19. Geosimulation of urban growth and demographic decline in the Ruhr: a case study for 2025 using the artificial intelligence of cells and agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rienow, Andreas; Stenger, Dirk

    2014-07-01

    The Ruhr is an "old acquaintance" in the discourse of urban decline in old industrialized cities. The agglomeration has to struggle with archetypical problems of former monofunctional manufacturing cities. Surprisingly, the image of a shrinking city has to be refuted if you shift the focus from socioeconomic wealth to its morphological extension. Thus, it is the objective of this study to meet the challenge of modeling urban sprawl and demographic decline by combining two artificial intelligent solutions: The popular urban cellular automaton SLEUTH simulates urban growth using four simple but effective growth rules. In order to improve its performance, SLEUTH has been modified among others by combining it with a robust probability map based on support vector machines. Additionally, a complex multi-agent system is developed to simulate residential mobility in a shrinking city agglomeration: residential mobility and the housing market of shrinking city systems focuses on the dynamic of interregional housing markets implying the development of potential dwelling areas. The multi-agent system comprises the simulation of population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking city agglomerations. Both models are calibrated and validated regarding their localization and quantification performance. Subsequently, the urban landscape configuration and composition of the Ruhr 2025 are simulated. A simple spatial join is used to combine the results serving as valuable inputs for future regional planning in the context of multifarious demographic change and preceding urban growth.

  20. Trends in population growth in China's towns during the eighties, and town population in-migration and its decisive factors: a historic convergence of two types of demographic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, J

    1990-01-01

    Relying on socioeconomic and population statistics, as well as population censuses, the author examines the growth of China's towns in the 1980s due to in-migration, and considers the economic causes and impact of the growth of towns. Prior to 1984, China's urbanization had been slow and uneven. But in the 4 years from 1984-87, China's urban population grew 3.8 times faster than the period before 1984. and unlike the previous pattern of urbanization, slightly over half of the urban growth occurred in small cities and towns. The rapid growth of towns was due to an unprecedented level of in-migration into towns from agricultural villages. This population transformed itself into a nonagricultural population. The author attributes the increase in urbanization and its changing patterns to a historic convergence: the shift in industry for the agricultural population and a regional shift for the village population--realized through a form of village-to-town population migration. The author goes on to examine the development of small-town enterprises, facilitated after the rural reform of 1984. The author notes that since that year, small-town industries have flourished, a development that has had a number of beneficial effects on both the provincial areas and the nation as a whole. Finally, the author considers the factors that have fueled town population in-migration: 1) in most provinces, higher incomes in towns have attracted people from the villages; and 2) in provinces with little discrepancy in income between town and village, a combination of the regions' relative isolation and government policy preventing migration to cities have spurred the growth of towns.

  1. Population Growth and Sprawl on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, R. L.

    2006-05-01

    The most important impact on global land cover is human use and development. With the recent population growth occurring on the reservations in South Dakota, especially Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, the towns and agricultural areas of the reservation are undergoing a change. Although urban sprawl certainly is not a consideration on the reservations, the population explosion currently underway has seen a subsequent increase in rural sprawl. In this case, rural sprawl is defined as exponential population growth and geographic expansion of remote reservation communities. Using satellite imagery and software to render these images is a cost effective way to investigate this growth. Also, using remotely sensed data and a GIS (geographic information system) package can address different issues that concern people and communities in and around the Pine Ridge area. The objective of my project is to observe land use change on the Pine Ridge Indian reservation using Geographic Information Systems such as; ARCGis 9, ENVI, and Multispec, along with Landsat 4, 5, and 7 imagery over the past 20 years.

  2. Adapting to Population Growth: The Evolutionary Alternative to Malthus

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    Axel Kristinsson

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A long-standing debate on the dynamics of population growth in human history has become polarized between a Malthusian stance and a Boserupian one. The former tends to view population growth as limited by carrying capacity, dependent on environment and technology, whereas the latter sees population growth itself as a major inducement to social, economic and technological developments. In this paper the authors experiment with approaching this debate by using recent developments in evolutionary theory. According to these, evolutionary principles, as expounded by Charles Darwin and subsequent evolutionary scientists, apply not only to biological evolution but also to social or cultural evolution. Here, the role of genes is taken over by culture and, since culture is much more pliable than our DNA, evolution speeds up. As the only organisms on Earth whose evolution relies as heavily on culture as on genes, humans have become extremely adaptable. Their hyper-adaptability suggest that humans, through their cultural evolution, have managed increasingly to adapt to their own growing population, thus succeeding in accommodating ever-growing numbers. This hypothesis fits the Boserupian approach to population very well but less so the Malthusian one, perhaps indicating a gradual shift from a Malthusian regime to a Boserupian one in human history. The hypothesis is discussed and examined through four case studies: The beginning of farming around Göbekli Tepe in southeast Turkey, the productive farming systems of Tiwanaku in South America, the population crisis of late medieval and early modern Iceland, and the ‘collapse’ of Rapa Nui (Easter Island.

  3. Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.

  4. Tackling the Urban Informal Economy: Some Lessons from a Study of Europe’s Urban Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin C. WILLIAMS

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to evaluate themost effective way of tackling the urban informaleconomy. It has been recently argued that theconventional rational economic actor approach(which increases the costs of participating in theurban informal economy so that they outweighthe benefi ts should be replaced or complementedby a social actor approach which focusesupon improving tax morale. To evaluate the effectivenessof these supposedly alternative approachesto tackling the participation of urbanpopulations in the informal economy, we reportthe results of face-to-face interviews conductedin 2013 with 17,886 urban dwellers across the 28Member States of the EU. Multilevel logistic regressionanalysis reveals that both approachesare effective in signifi cantly reducing the urbanpopulation’s participation in the informal economy.When tax morale is high, however, the rationaleconomic actor approach of increasing thecosts has little impact on reducing the probabilityof engagement in the informal economy. The paperconcludes by calling for greater emphasis onimproving the tax morale of the urban populationso as to tackle the informal economy in the urbanareas of Europe and beyond.

  5. Genomic growth curves of an outbred pig population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabyano Fonseca e Silva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the current post-genomic era, the genetic basis of pig growth can be understood by assessing SNP marker effects and genomic breeding values (GEBV based on estimates of these growth curve parameters as phenotypes. Although various statistical methods, such as random regression (RR-BLUP and Bayesian LASSO (BL, have been applied to genomic selection (GS, none of these has yet been used in a growth curve approach. In this work, we compared the accuracies of RR-BLUP and BL using empirical weight-age data from an outbred F2 (Brazilian Piau X commercial population. The phenotypes were determined by parameter estimates using a nonlinear logistic regression model and the halothane gene was considered as a marker for evaluating the assumptions of the GS methods in relation to the genetic variation explained by each locus. BL yielded more accurate values for all of the phenotypes evaluated and was used to estimate SNP effects and GEBV vectors. The latter allowed the construction of genomic growth curves, which showed substantial genetic discrimination among animals in the final growth phase. The SNP effect estimates allowed identification of the most relevant markers for each phenotype, the positions of which were coincident with reported QTL regions for growth traits.

  6. Fine-Scale Population Estimation by 3D Reconstruction of Urban Residential Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shixin; Tian, Ye; Zhou, Yi; Liu, Wenliang; Lin, Chenxi

    2016-01-01

    Fine-scale population estimation is essential in emergency response and epidemiological applications as well as urban planning and management. However, representing populations in heterogeneous urban regions with a finer resolution is a challenge. This study aims to obtain fine-scale population distribution based on 3D reconstruction of urban residential buildings with morphological operations using optical high-resolution (HR) images from the Chinese No. 3 Resources Satellite (ZY-3). Specifically, the research area was first divided into three categories when dasymetric mapping was taken into consideration. The results demonstrate that the morphological building index (MBI) yielded better results than built-up presence index (PanTex) in building detection, and the morphological shadow index (MSI) outperformed color invariant indices (CIIT) in shadow extraction and height retrieval. Building extraction and height retrieval were then combined to reconstruct 3D models and to estimate population. Final results show that this approach is effective in fine-scale population estimation, with a mean relative error of 16.46% and an overall Relative Total Absolute Error (RATE) of 0.158. This study gives significant insights into fine-scale population estimation in complicated urban landscapes, when detailed 3D information of buildings is unavailable. PMID:27775670

  7. Fine-Scale Population Estimation by 3D Reconstruction of Urban Residential Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shixin Wang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Fine-scale population estimation is essential in emergency response and epidemiological applications as well as urban planning and management. However, representing populations in heterogeneous urban regions with a finer resolution is a challenge. This study aims to obtain fine-scale population distribution based on 3D reconstruction of urban residential buildings with morphological operations using optical high-resolution (HR images from the Chinese No. 3 Resources Satellite (ZY-3. Specifically, the research area was first divided into three categories when dasymetric mapping was taken into consideration. The results demonstrate that the morphological building index (MBI yielded better results than built-up presence index (PanTex in building detection, and the morphological shadow index (MSI outperformed color invariant indices (CIIT in shadow extraction and height retrieval. Building extraction and height retrieval were then combined to reconstruct 3D models and to estimate population. Final results show that this approach is effective in fine-scale population estimation, with a mean relative error of 16.46% and an overall Relative Total Absolute Error (RATE of 0.158. This study gives significant insights into fine-scale population estimation in complicated urban landscapes, when detailed 3D information of buildings is unavailable.

  8. Economic Growth and Expansion of China’s Urban Land Area: Evidence from Administrative Data and Night Lights, 1993–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Gibson

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between economic growth, expansion of urban land area and the broader issue of cultivated land conversion in China has been closely examined for the late 1980s and 1990s. Much less is known about recent urban expansion and if the effects of economic growth on this expansion have changed over time. This paper updates estimates of urban expansion for China and examines the relationship with city economic growth for 1993–2012. To see if patterns are robust to different types of evidence, administrative data on the area of 225 urban cores are compared to estimates of brightly lit areas from remotely sensed night lights. The trend annual expansion rate in lit area is 8% and was significantly faster in the decade to 2002 than in the most recent decade. Expansion is slower according to administrative data, at just 5% per annum, with no change in unconditional expansion rates between decades, while conditional expansion rates have declined. The elasticity of area with respect to city economic output is about 0.3. Over time, expansion of urban land area is becoming less responsive to the growth of the local non-agricultural population.

  9. Population growth, accessibility spillovers and persistent borders: Historical growth in West-European municipalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Koomen, Eric

    2017-06-01

    Lack of cross-border transport supply has repeatedly been blamed for the fact that national borders limit spatial interaction and, consequently, the growth of border regions. This study applies an accessibility approach to investigate for most municipalities in ten countries in mainland West Europe if foreign transport supply is lagging behind, and if population growth in these municipalities has been affected by the limits that national borders have imposed on market access. To do so, data describing historical population changes and road networks between 1961 and 2011 have been used. The results show that in the study area, cross-border transport accessibility was not at a disadvantage in 1961 and has since then grown even more than domestic accessibility. However, municipal population growth has depended almost exclusively on domestic market access. Processes of economic international integration in the study area are found to coincide with the growth of cross-border accessibility, but do not have a clear coincidence with the effects of cross-border accessibility on population growth.

  10. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

  11. Perception of the Local Population toward Urban Forests in Municipality of Aerodrom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aneta Blazevska

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: With the development of both society and economy, environmental issues have become a more popular topic. In recent decades both the role and perception of urban forests have changed regarding recreational and environmental aspects on both a local and global level. This coupled with urbanization places great importance on how people see and value the forests in an urban and peri-urban setting. Visitors are not a homogeneous category and hence have different needs and perceptions of urban and peri-urban green spaces. The study aims to understand the visitors` perception from municipality Aerodrom towards urban forests and their recreational use, benefits, preferences and perception regarding management activities of urban forests. Material and Methods: The method used for the research is qualitative with semi-structured questionnaire which was conducted face to face. Gathered data were analyzed by Excel and after that were presented in tables and graphs for better review of the results. The study area was municipality of Aerodrom which has the biggest space under urban forests per capita in Skopje. Results and Conclusion: Results have shown that all respondents have permanent residence in the municipality of Aerodrom, located in different settlements and with the length of stay mainly between 5 to 40 years. There is a dominance of female population and respondent’s age over 40 in the research. Results also showed that the average number of visit in urban forests by respondents during the week is three times. Regarding the meaning and association of term urban forests, results showed that majority of respondents have a clear and concise perception, and mainly this term for them is association on park and greenery, a nice decorated environment and place for walk. When it comes to the way how current situation with urban forest can be improved almost all of the respondents highlighted it can be through the following things

  12. The role of population density on the impact of urbaniza-tion on GHG emissions in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yonghong; Gao, Chaochao; Lu, Yingying

    2017-04-01

    Urbanization directly drives rural to urban population migration and indirectly causes west to east migration in China, two phenomena that may significantly impact China's greenhouse gas emissions given its huge population and vast difference between the western rural and eastern urban areas. These two phenomena were analyzed by using emissions as a per capita term, and extending the impact from the traditional urbanization rate effect to include population density effect. The results show that population density has actually been the dominant demographic player in changing per capita emissions for the past two decades in China, and its elasticity changed from positive in economically less-developed provinces to negative for the developed provinces. This study provides a new perspective in the study of the relationship between urbanization and greenhouse gas emissions, and the results indicate that population density change should be taken into account to accurately assess the impact of urbanization.

  13. Is faster economic growth compatible with reductions in carbon emissions? The role of diminished population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Gregory; Galor, Oded

    2017-01-01

    We provide evidence that lower fertility can simultaneously increase income per capita and lower carbon emissions, eliminating a trade-off central to most policies aimed at slowing global climate change. We estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the fact that changes in fertility patterns affect carbon emissions through three channels: total population, the age structure of the population, and economic output. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we estimate the elasticity of carbon emissions with respect to population and income per capita in an unbalanced yearly panel of cross-country data from 1950-2010. We demonstrate that the elasticity with respect to population is nearly seven times larger than the elasticity with respect to income per capita and that this difference is statistically significant. Thus, the regression results imply that 1% slower population growth could be accompanied by an increase in income per capita of nearly 7% while still lowering carbon emissions. In the second part of our analysis, we use a recently constructed economic-demographic model of Nigeria to estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the impacts of fertility on population growth, population age structure, and income per capita. We find that by 2100 C.E. moving from the medium to the low variant of the UN fertility projection leads to 35% lower yearly emissions and 15% higher income per capita. These results suggest that population policies could be part of the approach to combating global climate change.

  14. Impacts of compact growth and electric vehicles on future air quality and urban exposures may be mixed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Haofei; Stuart, Amy L

    2017-01-15

    'Smart' growth and electric vehicles are potential solutions to the negative impacts of worldwide urbanization on air pollution and health. However, the effects of planning strategies on distinct types of pollutants, and on human exposures, remain understudied. The goal of this work was to investigate the potential impacts of alternative urban designs for the area around Tampa, Florida USA, on emissions, ambient concentrations, and exposures to oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), 1,3-butadiene, and benzene. We studied three potential future scenarios: sprawling growth, compact growth, and 100% vehicle fleet electrification with compact growth. We projected emissions in the seven-county region to 2050 based on One Bay regional visioning plan data. We estimated pollutant concentrations in the county that contains Tampa using the CALPUFF dispersion model. We applied residential population projections to forecast acute (highest hour) and chronic (annual average) exposure. The compact scenario was projected to result in lower regional emissions of all pollutants than sprawl, with differences of -18%, -3%, and -14% for NO x , butadiene, and benzene, respectively. Within Hillsborough County, the compact form also had lower emissions, concentrations, and exposures than sprawl for NO x (-16%/-5% for acute/chronic exposures, respectively), but higher exposures for butadiene (+41%/+30%) and benzene (+21%/+9%). The addition of complete vehicle fleet electrification to the compact scenario mitigated these in-county increases for the latter pollutants, lowering predicted exposures to butadiene (-25%/-39%) and benzene (-5%/-19%), but also resulted in higher exposures to NO x (+81%/+30%) due to increased demand on power plants. These results suggest that compact forms may have mixed impacts on exposures and health. 'Smart' urban designs should consider multiple pollutants and the diverse mix of pollutant sources. Cleaner power generation will also likely be needed to support aggressive

  15. Patient satisfaction with community pharmacy: comparing urban and suburban chain-pharmacy populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malewski, David F; Ream, Aimrie; Gaither, Caroline A

    2015-01-01

    Patient satisfaction with pharmaceutical care can be a strong predictor of medication and other health-related outcomes. Less understood is the role that location of pharmacies in urban or suburban environments plays in patient satisfaction with pharmacy and pharmacist services. The purpose of this study was to serve as a pilot examining urban and suburban community pharmacy populations for similarities and differences in patient satisfaction. Community pharmacy patients were asked to self-administer a 30-question patient satisfaction survey. Fifteen questions addressed their relationship with the pharmacist, 10 questions addressed satisfaction and accessibility of the pharmacy, and five questions addressed financial concerns. Five urban and five suburban pharmacies agreed to participate. Data analysis included descriptive statistics and chi-square analysis. Most patients reported high levels of satisfaction. Satisfaction with pharmacist relationship and service was 70% or higher with no significant differences between locations. There were significant differences between the urban and suburban patients regarding accessibility of pharmacy services, customer service and some patient/pharmacist trust issues. The significant differences between patient satisfaction in the suburban and urban populations warrant a larger study with more community pharmacies in other urban, suburban and rural locations to better understand and validate study findings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Policies for managing urban growth and landscape change: a key to conservation in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N., tech. ed. Bengston

    2005-01-01

    Protecting natural areas in the face of urbanization is one of the most important challenges for conservation in the 21st century. The papers in this collection examine key issues related to growth management and selected approaches to managing urban growth and minimizing its social and environmental costs. They were presented at the 2004 annual meeting of the Society...

  17. URBANIZATION EFFECTS ON TREE GROWTH IN THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK CITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plants in urban ecosystems are exposed to many pollutants and higher temperatures, CO2 and nitrogen deposition than plants in rural areas. Although each factor has a detrimental or beneficial influence on plant growth, the net effect of all factors and the key driving variables a...

  18. Redistribution, Growth, and Inclusion : The Development of the Urban Housing System in China, 1949-2015

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deng, W.; Hoekstra, J.S.C.M.; Elsinga, M.G.

    2017-01-01

    This paper explains the development of the urban housing system in China from 1949 to 2011 with an emphasis on the factors driving housing inequality in each policy period. We argue that the logic underpinning the housing policy had shifted from socialist redistribution to the stimulation of growth

  19. Case Studies of Successful Assistance in Urban School Improvement Programs. I. The Teacher Growth Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piety-Jacobs, Sharon R.

    As part of a research project on "Patterns of Successful Assistance in Urban School Programs," this paper presents a case study of an assister's work in a Teacher Growth Program (TGP) at an elementary school in Staten Island, New York. The school has an experienced teaching staff, a supportive principal, a cross-sectional student…

  20. Overview of urban growth simulation: With examples of results from three SA cities

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Waldeck, L

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This presentation provides an overview of Urban Growth Simulation as a risk free means of assessing the future outcome of major policy and investment decisions with some examples of scenarios that were simulated in different South African cities...

  1. Delays in accessing electroconvulsive therapy: a comparison between two urban and two rural populations in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Natalie E

    2015-10-01

    A comparison of the timing, rates and characteristics of electroconvulsive therapy use between urban and rural populations. The medical records of patients who received an acute course of electroconvulsive therapy at two rural and two urban psychiatric hospitals in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, in 2010 were reviewed retrospectively. Main outcome measures were the time from symptom onset, diagnosis and admission to commencing electroconvulsive therapy. Rates of use of electroconvulsive therapy were also compared between rural and urban hospitals using NSW statewide data. There was a significant delay in the time it took for rural patients to receive electroconvulsive therapy compared with urban patients when measured both from the time of symptom onset and from when they received a diagnosis. There were corresponding delays in the time taken for rural patients to be admitted to hospital compared with urban patients. There was no difference in the time it took to commence electroconvulsive therapy once a patient was admitted to hospital. NSW statewide urban-rural comparisons showed rates of electroconvulsive therapy treatment were significantly higher in urban hospitals. Patients in rural areas receive electroconvulsive therapy later in their acute illness due to delays in being admitted to hospital. The rate of use of electroconvulsive therapy also differs geographically. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

  2. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R. [Institute of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Tallinn University, 25 Narva Road, 10120 Tallinn (Estonia)

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  3. Seasonal Differences in Determinants of Time Location Patterns in an Urban Population: A Large Population-Based Study in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sewon; Lee, Kiyoung

    2017-06-22

    Time location patterns are a significant factor for exposure assessment models of air pollutants. Factors associated with time location patterns in urban populations are typically due to high air pollution levels in urban areas. The objective of this study was to determine the seasonal differences in time location patterns in two urban cities. A Time Use Survey of Korean Statistics (KOSTAT) was conducted in the summer, fall, and winter of 2014. Time location data from Seoul and Busan were collected, together with demographic information obtained by diaries and questionnaires. Determinants of the time spent at each location were analyzed by multiple linear regression and the stepwise method. Seoul and Busan participants had similar time location profiles over the three seasons. The time spent at own home, other locations, workplace/school and during walk were similar over the three seasons in both the Seoul and Busan participants. The most significant time location pattern factors were employment status, age, gender, monthly income, and spouse. Season affected the time spent at the workplace/school and other locations in the Seoul participants, but not in the Busan participants. The seasons affected each time location pattern of the urban population slightly differently, but overall there were few differences.

  4. Seasonal Differences in Determinants of Time Location Patterns in an Urban Population: A Large Population-Based Study in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sewon Lee

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Time location patterns are a significant factor for exposure assessment models of air pollutants. Factors associated with time location patterns in urban populations are typically due to high air pollution levels in urban areas. The objective of this study was to determine the seasonal differences in time location patterns in two urban cities. A Time Use Survey of Korean Statistics (KOSTAT was conducted in the summer, fall, and winter of 2014. Time location data from Seoul and Busan were collected, together with demographic information obtained by diaries and questionnaires. Determinants of the time spent at each location were analyzed by multiple linear regression and the stepwise method. Seoul and Busan participants had similar time location profiles over the three seasons. The time spent at own home, other locations, workplace/school and during walk were similar over the three seasons in both the Seoul and Busan participants. The most significant time location pattern factors were employment status, age, gender, monthly income, and spouse. Season affected the time spent at the workplace/school and other locations in the Seoul participants, but not in the Busan participants. The seasons affected each time location pattern of the urban population slightly differently, but overall there were few differences.

  5. Strategies to reduce exclusion among populations living in urban slum settlements in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Sabina Faiz

    2009-08-01

    The health and rights of populations living in informal or slum settlements are key development issues of the twenty-first century. As of 2007, the majority of the world's population lives in urban areas. More than one billion of these people, or one in three city-dwellers, live in inadequate housing with no or a few basic resources. In Bangladesh, urban slum settlements tend to be located in low-lying, flood-prone, poorly-drained areas, having limited formal garbage disposal and minimal access to safe water and sanitation. These areas are severely crowded, with 4-5 people living in houses of just over 100 sq feet. These conditions of high density of population and poor sanitation exacerbate the spread of diseases. People living in these areas experience social, economic and political exclusion, which bars them from society's basic resources. This paper overviews policies and actions that impact the level of exclusion of people living in urban slum settlements in Bangladesh, with a focus on improving the health and rights of the urban poor. Despite some strategies adopted to ensure better access to water and health, overall, the country does not have a comprehensive policy for urban slum residents, and the situation remains bleak.

  6. Strategies to Reduce Exclusion among Populations Living in Urban Slum Settlements in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    The health and rights of populations living in informal or slum settlements are key development issues of the twenty-first century. As of 2007, the majority of the world's population lives in urban areas. More than one billion of these people, or one in three city-dwellers, live in inadequate housing with no or a few basic resources. In Bangladesh, urban slum settlements tend to be located in low-lying, flood-prone, poorly-drained areas, having limited formal garbage disposal and minimal access to safe water and sanitation. These areas are severely crowded, with 4–5 people living in houses of just over 100 sq feet. These conditions of high density of population and poor sanitation exacerbate the spread of diseases. People living in these areas experience social, economic and political exclusion, which bars them from society's basic resources. This paper overviews policies and actions that impact the level of exclusion of people living in urban slum settlements in Bangladesh, with a focus on improving the health and rights of the urban poor. Despite some strategies adopted to ensure better access to water and health, overall, the country does not have a comprehensive policy for urban slum residents, and the situation remains bleak. PMID:19761090

  7. Municipal property acquisition patterns in a shrinking city: Evidence for the persistence of an urban growth paradigm in Buffalo, NY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Mark Silverman

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to examine municipal property acquisition patterns in shrinking cities. We use data from the City of Buffalo’s municipal property auction records to analyze the spatial distribution of properties offered for sale in its annual tax foreclosure auction. In addition to these data, we examine demolition and building permit records. Our analysis suggests that cities like Buffalo follow strategies based on an urban growth paradigm when responding to abandonment. This paradigm operates under the assumption that growth is a constant and urban development is only limited by fiscal constraints, underdeveloped systems of urban governance, environmental degradation, and resistance by anti-growth coalitions. We recommend that planners in shrinking cities de-emphasize growth-based planning and focus on rightsizing strategies. These strategies are based on the assumption that growth is not a constant. Consequently, urban revitalization is concentrated in a smaller urban footprint.

  8. Differential associations of urbanicity and income with physical activity in adults in urbanizing China: findings from the population-based China Health and Nutrition Survey 1991-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attard, Samantha M; Howard, Annie-Green; Herring, Amy H; Zhang, Bing; Du, Shufa; Aiello, Allison E; Popkin, Barry M; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

    2015-12-12

    High urbanicity and income are risk factors for cardiovascular-related chronic diseases in low- and middle-income countries, perhaps due to low physical activity (PA) in urban, high income areas. Few studies have examined differences in PA over time according to income and urbanicity in a country experiencing rapid urbanization. We used data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, a population-based cohort of Chinese adults (n = 20,083; ages 18-75y) seen a maximum of 7 times from 1991-2009. We used sex-stratified, zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to examine occupational, domestic, leisure, travel, and total PA in Chinese adults according to year, urbanicity, income, and the interactions among urbanicity, income, and year, controlling for age and region of China. We showed larger mean temporal PA declines for individuals living in relatively low urbanicity areas (1991: 500 MET-hours/week; 2009: 300 MET-hours/week) compared to high urbanicity areas (1991: 200 MET-hours/week; 2009: 125 MET-hours/week). In low urbanicity areas, the association between income and total PA went from negative in 1991 (p Leisure PA was the only domain of PA that increased over time, but >95% of individuals in low urbanicity areas reported zero leisure PA at each time point. Our findings show changing associations for income and urbanicity with PA over 18 years of urbanization. Total PA was lower for individuals living in more versus less urban areas at all time points. However, these differences narrowed over time, which may relate to increases in individual-level income in less urban areas of China with urbanization. Low-income individuals in higher urbanicity areas are a particularly critical group to target to increase PA in China.

  9. Mathematical modeling of an urban pigeon population subject to local management strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haidar, I; Alvarez, I; Prévot, A C

    2017-06-01

    This paper addresses the issue of managing urban pigeon population using some possible actions that make it reach a density target with respect to socio-ecological constraints. A mathematical model describing the dynamic of this population is introduced. This model incorporates the effect of some regulatory actions on the dynamic of this population. We use mathematical viability theory, which provides a framework to study compatibility between dynamics and state constraints. The viability study shows when and how it is possible to regulate the pigeon population with respect to the constraints. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Variation and plasticity and their interaction with urbanization in Guadalupe Bass populations on and off the Edwards Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pease, Jessica E.; Grabowski, Timothy B.; Pease, Allison A.

    2017-01-01

    The Colorado River Basin in Texas has experienced major alterations to its hydrologic regime due to changing land and water use patterns. These anthropogenic influences on hydrologic variability have had major implications for riparian and aquatic ecosystems and the species dependent upon them. However, impacts are often assessed at a limited temporal and spatial scale, tending to focus on relatively short and discrete periods or portions of a river basin. It is not clear how basin-wide alterations occurring over decades affect species. Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii are endemic to central Texas and are typically associated with shallow runs and riffles in small streams. However, Guadalupe Bass are found throughout the Colorado River Basin, including the mainstem portion of the lower river downstream of the city of Austin where they support a popular fishery. Because Guadalupe Bass exist across a wide range of stream orders within the basin, it is unclear whether populations respond similarly to anthropogenic disturbances or to conservation and restoration activities. Therefore, our objectives were to:Assess the effects of urbanization and hydrology on the population structure and dynamics of Guadalupe Bass.Evaluate the effects of environmental gradients on ecomorphological variation in Guadalupe Bass populations across multiple spatial scales.Describe the life history, habitat use, and behavior of the Guadalupe Bass population in the lower Colorado River and compare it to populations in more “typical” habitats.Results contribute to an understanding of the response of Guadalupe Bass to anthropogenic disturbances, including increased urbanization in central Texas and further assist in the conservation of the species. The ability of the population to not only persist, but flourish downstream of a heavily populated urban area presented a unique opportunity to investigate a native species response to anthropogenic disturbance. This research revealed

  11. A phenomenological theory of world population growth and global problems

    CERN Document Server

    Kapitza, Sergei P

    1996-01-01

    Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant one. To describe this process in its past and project it into the future a mathematical model is worked out. It treats the world population as an entity, seen as an open and evolv The approach is phenomenological and growth over very many generations is assumed to be selfsimilar and described by scaling. In terms of kinetics, the growth rate is proportional to the square of the total number of people and the nonlinear hyperbol of all mechanisms that contribute to our development in a collective interactive process. The model gives an estimate of the beginning of human evolution c.a. 4.4 million years ago and of the total number of people who ever lived c.a. 100 billion. In the scope of the model large scale cycles defined by history and anthropology are shown to be uniformly spaced in time on a logarithmic scale, expressing and inherent periodicity. As we approach the present, this progression of cycles is now termo transition. This is a s...

  12. Urban soil biomonitoring by beetle and earthworm populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janossy, L.; Bitto, A. [ELTE Univ., Budapest (Hungary)

    1995-12-31

    Two macro invertebrate groups were chosen for biomonitoring environmental changes. The beetle population was pitfall trapped (five month in 1994) at five downtown sites (parks) of Budapest and in a hilly original woodland as a control site 33km NW of Budapest. Earthworms were collected by using formol solution. Five heavy metals were measured (Pb, Co, Hg, Zn, Cu) in the upper soil layer at the same sampling sites. Pb, Hg, Zn and Cu was over the tolerable limit in a park near the railway, extreme high Pb (530 mg/kg dry soil) and Zn content was measured in one park. Roads are also salted in wintertime. The number of beetle species in the downtown parks varied 10 to 22 (226--462 specimen). Near to the edge of the city up to 45 beetle species were found in a park with 1,027 specimen. In the woodland area 52 beetle species with 1,061 specimen were found. Less dominance and higher specific diversity showed the direction from downtown to woodland. Only 2 or 3 cosmopolitan earthworm species existed in downtown parks with 30--35 specimen/m{sup 2}, in the control woodland area 7 mostly endemic earthworm species were found with 74 specimens/m{sup 2}. But earthworm biomass was higher in three well fertilized parks (43--157 g/m{sup 2}), than in the original woodland (25-g/m{sup 2}). The beetle populations seem to be good tools for biomonitoring. Earthworms are susceptible to environmental changes but they also strongly depend on the leaf litter and the organic matter of the soil. The change in the animal populations is the result of summarized environmental impacts in such a big city like Budapest.

  13. Seroprevalence of Scrub Typhus, Typhus, and Spotted Fever Among Rural and Urban Populations of Northern Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trung, N.V.; Hoi, L.T.; Thuong, N.T.H.; Toan, T.K.; Huong, T.T.K.; Hoa, T.M.; Fox, A.; Kinh, N.V.; Doorn, H.R. van; Wertheim, H.F.L.; Bryant, J.E.; Nadjm, B.

    2017-01-01

    AbstractRickettsial infections are recognized as important causes of fever throughout southeast Asia. Herein, we determined the seroprevalence to rickettsioses within rural and urban populations of northern Vietnam. Prevalence of individuals with evidence of prior rickettsial infections (IgG

  14. Patterns of Vaginal, Oral, and Anal Sexual Intercourse in an Urban Seventh-Grade Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markham, Christine M.; Peskin, Melissa Fleschler; Addy, Robert C.; Baumler, Elizabeth R.; Tortolero, Susan R.

    2009-01-01

    Background: This study examines the prevalence of vaginal, oral, and anal intercourse among a population of urban, public middle school students, the characteristics of early sexual initiators, and the sequence of sexual initiation. Such data are limited for early adolescents. Methods: A total of 1279 seventh-grade students (57.3% female, 43.6%…

  15. Natural areas and urban populations: communication and environmental education challenges and actions in outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah J. Chavez

    2005-01-01

    Challenges, opportunities, and actions exist in areas where large urban populations interface with natural areas, such as outdoor recreation sites in southern California. Challenges in the interface include intense recreation use, public safety issues, and complex information strategies. Research results on communications and environmental education offer opportunities...

  16. Influence of human population movements on urban climate of Beijing during the Chinese New Year holiday

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jingyong; Wu, Lingyun

    2017-03-01

    The population movements for the Chinese New Year (CNY) celebrations, known as the world’s largest yearly migration of human beings, have grown rapidly in the past several decades. The massive population outflows from urban areas largely reduce anthropogenic heat release and modify some other processes, and may thus have noticeable impacts on urban climate of large cities in China. Here, we use Beijing as an example to present observational evidence for such impacts over the period of 1990-2014. Our results show a significant cooling trend of up to 0.55 °C per decade, particularly at the nighttime during the CNY holiday relative to the background period. The average nighttime cooling effect during 2005-2014 reaches 0.94 °C relative to the 1990s, significant at the 99% confidence level. The further analysis supports that the cooling during the CNY holiday is attributable primarily to the population outflow of Beijing. These findings illustrate the importance of population movements in influencing urban climate despite certain limitations. As the world is becoming more mobile and increasingly urban, more efforts are called for to understand the role of human mobility at various spatial and temporal scales.

  17. The importance of resident environmental awareness in conservation of urban wildlife populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    The proximity of humans and wildlife to each other along the wildland-urban interface results in constant potential conflict between human activity and wildlife populations. Since 2002, California biologists have observed a drastic increase in carnivore mortalities that are asso...

  18. Microsporum spp. onychomycosis: disease presentation, risk factors and treatment responses in an urban population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erick Martínez

    2014-03-01

    Conclusion: This is the largest reported series of Microsporum onychomycosis and demonstrates such a disease in an urban population. In 27.78% of the cases risk factors for infection were associated to comorbid states. We also report the first 2 cases of successfully treated M. canis onychomycosis with photodynamic therapy and a rare case of M. canis associated dermatophytoma.

  19. Prevalence of psychiatric and physical morbidity in an urban geriatric population

    OpenAIRE

    Seby, K.; Chaudhury, Suprakash; Chakraborty, Rudraprosad

    2011-01-01

    Background: With a rapidly increasing population of older aged people, epidemiological data regarding the prevalence of mental and physical illnesses are urgently required for proper health planning. However, there is a scarcity of such data from India. Aims: To study the frequency and pattern of psychiatric morbidity present and the association of physical illness with psychiatric morbidity in an elderly urban population. Settings and Design: Cross-sectional, epidemiological study. Materials...

  20. CA-Markov Analysis of Constrained Coastal Urban Growth Modeling: Hua Hin Seaside City, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajendra Shrestha

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Thailand, a developing country in Southeast Asia, is experiencing rapid development, particularly urban growth as a response to the expansion of the tourism industry. Hua Hin city provides an excellent example of an area where urbanization has flourished due to tourism. This study focuses on how the dynamic urban horizontal expansion of the seaside city of Hua Hin is constrained by the coast, thus making sustainability for this popular tourist destination—managing and planning for its local inhabitants, its visitors, and its sites—an issue. The study examines the association of land use type and land use change by integrating Geo-Information technology, a statistic model, and CA-Markov analysis for sustainable land use planning. The study identifies that the land use types and land use changes from the year 1999 to 2008 have changed as a result of increased mobility; this trend, in turn, has everything to do with urban horizontal expansion. The changing sequences of land use type have developed from forest area to agriculture, from agriculture to grassland, then to bare land and built-up areas. Coastal urban growth has, for a decade, been expanding horizontally from a downtown center along the beach to the western area around the golf course, the southern area along the beach, the southwest grassland area, and then the northern area near the airport.

  1. Population, behavioural and physiological responses of an urban population of black swans to an intense annual noise event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Catherine J; Jessop, Tim S; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Johnstone, Michele; Feore, Megan; Mulder, Raoul A

    2012-01-01

    Wild animals in urban environments are exposed to a broad range of human activities that have the potential to disturb their life history and behaviour. Wildlife responses to disturbance can range from emigration to modified behaviour, or elevated stress, but these responses are rarely evaluated in concert. We simultaneously examined population, behavioural and hormonal responses of an urban population of black swans Cygnus atratus before, during and after an annual disturbance event involving large crowds and intense noise, the Australian Formula One Grand Prix. Black swan population numbers were lowest one week before the event and rose gradually over the course of the study, peaking after the event, suggesting that the disturbance does not trigger mass emigration. We also found no difference in the proportion of time spent on key behaviours such as locomotion, foraging, resting or self-maintenance over the course of the study. However, basal and capture stress-induced corticosterone levels showed significant variation, consistent with a modest physiological response. Basal plasma corticosterone levels were highest before the event and decreased over the course of the study. Capture-induced stress levels peaked during the Grand Prix and then also declined over the remainder of the study. Our results suggest that even intensely noisy and apparently disruptive events may have relatively low measurable short-term impact on population numbers, behaviour or physiology in urban populations with apparently high tolerance to anthropogenic disturbance. Nevertheless, the potential long-term impact of such disturbance on reproductive success, individual fitness and population health will need to be carefully evaluated.

  2. Population, behavioural and physiological responses of an urban population of black swans to an intense annual noise event.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine J Payne

    Full Text Available Wild animals in urban environments are exposed to a broad range of human activities that have the potential to disturb their life history and behaviour. Wildlife responses to disturbance can range from emigration to modified behaviour, or elevated stress, but these responses are rarely evaluated in concert. We simultaneously examined population, behavioural and hormonal responses of an urban population of black swans Cygnus atratus before, during and after an annual disturbance event involving large crowds and intense noise, the Australian Formula One Grand Prix. Black swan population numbers were lowest one week before the event and rose gradually over the course of the study, peaking after the event, suggesting that the disturbance does not trigger mass emigration. We also found no difference in the proportion of time spent on key behaviours such as locomotion, foraging, resting or self-maintenance over the course of the study. However, basal and capture stress-induced corticosterone levels showed significant variation, consistent with a modest physiological response. Basal plasma corticosterone levels were highest before the event and decreased over the course of the study. Capture-induced stress levels peaked during the Grand Prix and then also declined over the remainder of the study. Our results suggest that even intensely noisy and apparently disruptive events may have relatively low measurable short-term impact on population numbers, behaviour or physiology in urban populations with apparently high tolerance to anthropogenic disturbance. Nevertheless, the potential long-term impact of such disturbance on reproductive success, individual fitness and population health will need to be carefully evaluated.

  3. Population growth and United States politics in the 1970s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, A E

    1973-01-01

    The 2 themes of this century, increasing environmental fragility and increasing human demands on government, are underlined by the failure of government to effectively govern, and the complex technology and modern communication systems which further divide the developing nations from the developed ones. Population stabilization may help relieve the tension between increasing expectation from government and the fiscal bind in 3 ways: 1)a higher per capita income would increase per capita government revenue which would have a better chance of meeting citizen expectations, 2)a moderately redistributive effect on personal income might occur by decreasing unwanted fertility through the dynamics of economics and increasing the role of government in elevating living standards, and 3)with reduction of government expenditure per capita, the cost of providing any given level of service would decrease. The nuclear age has altered the concept of what constitutes national security. Rapid population growth in the developing countries is also significant, and the United States economy depends on overseas investment. A constructive foreign policy, as opposed to neoimperialism or isolationism, is recommended to help influence world population growth.

  4. [Trends in smoking in an urban population over recent decades].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villalbí, Joan R; Bartoll, Xavier; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Borrell, Carme

    2016-05-06

    The objective of this study is to describe the distribution of smoking in the population and to assess changes and trends over recent decades. Cross sectional study in a sample of the non-institutionalized resident population (n=3,509) in Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) using data from persons over 14 years of age from the health survey of 2011, and assessing trends for 1983-2011 using previous surveys. Dependent variables are having ever been a smoker, having quit, being a current smoker, and smoking daily. Independent variables include sex, age, and time. Prevalence and proportions are estimated, stratifying or adjusting for age. The prevalence of daily smokers is 18.8% in 2011: 22.2% for men and 15.9% for women. The age groups with higher smoking prevalence are 25-34 years for men and 15-24 for women. From 1983 to 2011 the reduction among men has been intense, and for women the prevalence has been decreasing since the survey of 2000. Among smokers, the proportion of both genders who do not smoke daily has increased. The smoking epidemic over the last years shows promising trends. The data do not lend support to the hardening hypothesis for current smokers. Smokers are a shrinking minority, although to improve public health it would be desirable to speed the process of change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  5. Population genetics of the olive-winged bulbul (Pycnonotus plumosus) in a tropical urban-fragmented landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Grace S Y; Sadanandan, Keren R; Rheindt, Frank E

    2016-01-01

    With increasing urbanization, urban-fragmented landscapes are becoming more and more prevalent worldwide. Such fragmentation may lead to small, isolated populations that face great threats from genetic factors that affect even avian species with high dispersal propensities. Yet few studies have investigated the population genetics of species living within urban-fragmented landscapes in the Old World tropics, in spite of the high levels of deforestation and fragmentation within this region. We investigated the evolutionary history and population genetics of the olive-winged bulbul (Pycnonotus plumosus) in Singapore, a highly urbanized island which retains landscape.

  6. Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwindt, Adam R.; Winkelman, Dana L.

    2016-01-01

    Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L−1 and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

  7. Urbanisation, urban growth and planning in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Region with reference studies from Europe and the USA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    pressure. Growth management strategies are necessary to secure future balanced and sustainable development throughout the whole urban region. The analysis of urbanisation and urban growth in peri-urban areas is at the core of this study, including socio-demographic and functional dynamics, land use impacts...... and options for spatial planning. The main case was the metropolitan region of Copenhagen, Denmark. Other cases from Europe and the USA were used as reference studies. The methods included quantitative analyses of register and land use data as well as general case study work to investigate options for spatial...... planning. The study shows that, while the most visible impacts of land use changes can be found at the close urban fringe, many other dynamics have a much longer reach into the rural-urban region. In the Copenhagen metropolitan region, we can observe migration to peri-urban areas and to the urban core...

  8. Detecting crop population growth using chlorophyll fluorescence imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Heng; Qian, Xiangjie; Zhang, Lan; Xu, Sailong; Li, Haifeng; Xia, Xiaojian; Dai, Liankui; Xu, Liang; Yu, Jingquan; Liu, Xu

    2017-12-10

    For both field and greenhouse crops, it is challenging to evaluate their growth information on a large area over a long time. In this work, we developed a chlorophyll fluorescence imaging-based system for crop population growth information detection. Modular design was used to make the system provide high-intensity uniform illumination. This system can perform modulated chlorophyll fluorescence induction kinetics measurement and chlorophyll fluorescence parameter imaging over a large area of up to 45  cm×34  cm. The system can provide different lighting intensity by modulating the duty cycle of its control signal. Results of continuous monitoring of cucumbers in nitrogen deficiency show the system can reduce the judge error of crop physiological status and improve monitoring efficiency. Meanwhile, the system is promising in high throughput application scenarios.

  9. Anthropometric growth study of the ear in a Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shichun; Li, Dianguo; Liu, Zhenzhong; Wang, Yibiao; Liu, Lei; Jiang, Duyin; Pan, Bo

    2018-04-01

    A large number of anthropometric studies of the auricle have been reported in different nations, but little data were available in the Chinese population. The aim of this study was to analyze growth changes in the ear by measuring the width and length of ears in a Chinese population. A total of 480 participants were enrolled and classified into 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 9-, 12-, 14-, and 18-year groups (half were boys and half were girls in each group). Ear length, ear width, body weight, and body length were measured and recorded; ear index was calculated according to ear length and ear width. The growth of auricle and differences between genders were analyzed. Growth of ear in relation to body height and weight and the degree of emphasis on the length and width of the auricle were also analyzed. Ear length and width increased with age. Ear length achieved its mature size in both 14-year-old males and females. Ear width reached its mature size in males at 7 years and in females at 5 years. Different trends of ear index were shown between males and females. People in this population paid more attention to the length than the width of the auricle. The data indicated that ear development followed increase in age. There were gender and ethnic difference in the development of ear. These results may have potential implications for the diagnosis of congenital malformations, syndromes, and planning of ear reconstruction surgery. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Project Mahathir: ‘Extraordinary’ Population Growth in Sabah

    OpenAIRE

    Frank, Sina

    2006-01-01

    The Malaysian state of Sabah faced an “extraordinary” population growth during the last decades. Illegal immigrants are said to have been issued Malaysian Identity Cards based on false statutory declarations. The so-called “Project Mahathir” changed Sabah’s ethnic make-up as well as the participation in elections. Politicians are said to have made use of “Phantom voters” in order to decide Sabah elections. Finally, with the help of a petition Sabah-based NGO’s demand an investi...

  11. Urban Transport and Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irandu, E.M.

    1999-01-01

    The population according to the 1989 census was 21,448,774 inhabitants. This figure shows that on average the total population has been increasing by more than 40% every decade since 1948. As a result the widening gap between fertility and mortality, the population is growing at an accelerated rate. The current official population growth rate figure of 3.4% per annum puts the country among the world's most rapidly growing nations. It is projected that by the year 2010, the population will be about 37.4 million. At present the urban centres with a population size of 2,000 people and above constitute about 18.1% of the total population (Kenya, 1994). Rapid economic growth has led to the development of a number of urban centres as centres of commerce, industry and tourism. Consequently, this has led to rural urban drift. This drift to urban areas causes a number of problems which if unresolved will limit the ability of the urban centres to support their population The rapid increase in urban population causes a shortage of facilities to meet the increasing demand in services such as public transport, water supply, sewage and housing (Ramatullah, 1997: 161-168). Urban Transport acts as catalyst to both urban and national development, by facilitating the movements associated with urban and national Development. They provide a means by which goods and services are made available to industry and consumers, creating opportunity for social and economic interaction and employment. Without urban transport, access to health, education and employment would not be possible. Indeed urban transport is what gives life to urban development

  12. Canine Gouging: A Taboo Resurfacing in Migrant Urban Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noman, Anila Virani; Wong, Ferranti; Pawar, Ravikiran Ramakrishna

    2015-01-01

    Cosmopolitan cities have become a pool of migrants from different parts of the world, who carry their cultural beliefs and superstitions with them around the globe. Canine gouging is a kind of infant oral mutilation (IOM) which is widely practiced among rural population of Africa where the primary tooth bud of the deciduous canine is enucleated. The belief is that the life threatening illnesses in children like vomiting, diarrhoea, and fevers are caused by worms which infest on tooth buds. This case report is of a 15-year-old Somalian born boy, who presented at the dental institute with intermittent pain in his lower right permanent canine which was associated with a discharging intra oral buccal sinus. The tooth was endodontically treated and then restored with composite. General dental practitioners need to be vigilant when encountered with tooth presenting unusual morphology, unilateral missing tooth, and shift in the midline due to early loss of deciduous/permanent canines. Identification of any such dental mutilation practice will need further counselling of the individual and family members. It is the duty of every dental professional to educate and safeguard the oral and dental health of general public.

  13. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic

  14. The Urban-Rural Gradient In Asthma: A Population-Based Study in Northern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Signe Timm

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The early life environment appears to have a persistent impact on asthma risk. We hypothesize that environmental factors related to rural life mediate lower asthma prevalence in rural populations, and aimed to investigate an urban-rural gradient, assessed by place of upbringing, for asthma. The population-based Respiratory Health In Northern Europe (RHINE study includes subjects from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Iceland and Estonia born 1945–1973. The present analysis encompasses questionnaire data on 11,123 RHINE subjects. Six categories of place of upbringing were defined: farm with livestock, farm without livestock, village in rural area, small town, city suburb and inner city. The association of place of upbringing with asthma onset was analysed with Cox regression adjusted for relevant confounders. Subjects growing up on livestock farms had less asthma (8% than subjects growing up in inner cities (11% (hazard ratio 0.72 95% CI 0.57–0.91, and a significant urban-rural gradient was observed across six urbanisation levels (p = 0.02. An urban-rural gradient was only evident among women, smokers and for late-onset asthma. Analyses on wheeze and place of upbringing revealed similar results. In conclusion, this study suggests a protective effect of livestock farm upbringing on asthma development and an urban-rural gradient in a Northern European population.

  15. Prevalence and correlates of fear of falling among elderly population in urban area of Karnataka, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mane, Abhay B; Sanjana, T; Patil, Prabhakar R; Sriniwas, T

    2014-07-01

    Falls are a major public health problem in the elderly population. Fear of falling (FOF) among elderly persons can compromise quality of life by limiting mobility, diminished sense of well-being and reduced social interactions. India is undergoing a demographic transitional phase with urban elderly population of 6.72% in 2001. The major challenge would be on the prevention of falls among them. Hence there is a need to highlight the problems related to fall faced by the elderly in India. To study the prevalence of FOF and its correlates among the elderly population in urban area. 250 elderly subjects above 60 years were randomly selected from urban area and interviewed for FOF using Short Fall Efficacy Scale-I (FES-I), history of falls and risk factors. The prevalence of FOF among the elderly was 33.2%. The significant correlates of FOF were educational status, family type, associated health problems, history of fall in past 6 months, worried of fall again among fallers, fearfulness of fall again among fallers, restriction of daily activities and depression among them. The insignificant correlates were gender and socio-economic status. FOF is a health problem among the elderly living in urban India needs urgent attention. It represents a significant threat to socialization, independence and morbidity or mortality. Knowledge of correlates of FOF may be useful in developing multidimensional strategies to reduce it among elderly.

  16. Comparison of patterns of substance abuse disorders in urban and rural population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morad Rasouli-Azad

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Studies of the prevalence of substance abuse in rural and urban population in different countries revealed variable results regarding to the study method, study population, age group and measuring tools. The purpose of this research is to compare the patterns of substance abuse disorders in urban and rural population in Mashhad.Materials and Method: Two groups consecutively admitted patients who referred to substance treatment clinics of Mashhad, were selected (110 urban and 100 rural patients. Samples were evaluated with structured demographic questionnaire and Structured Clinical Interview (SCID for DSM-IV. Data were analyzed by χ2 and independent t-test.Results: This study showed statistically significant differences between two groups in marital status, education level, monthly income and job. Also the samples were differed in substance type, history of injection and quit, abuse of nicotine, cannabis and alcohol in long life. Conclusion: Rural and urban societies have differences in patterns of substance abuse that can be originated from social-context differences

  17. Cardiovascular risk factors in a Mexican middle-class urban population. The Lindavista Study. Baseline data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meaney, Alejandra; Ceballos-Reyes, Guillermo; Gutiérrez-Salmean, Gabriela; Samaniego-Méndez, Virginia; Vela-Huerta, Agustín; Alcocer, Luis; Zárate-Chavarría, Elisa; Mendoza-Castelán, Emma; Olivares-Corichi, Ivonne; García-Sánchez, Rubén; Martínez-Marroquín, Yolanda; Ramírez-Sánchez, Israel; Meaney, Eduardo

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this communication is to describe the cardiovascular risk factors affecting a Mexican urban middle-class population. A convenience sample of 2602 middle class urban subjects composed the cohort of the Lindavista Study, a prospective study aimed to determine if conventional cardiovascular risks factors have the same prognosis impact as in other populations. For the baseline data, several measurements were done: obesity indexes, smoking, blood pressure, fasting serum glucose, total cholesterol, HDL-c, LDL-c and triglycerides. This paper presents the basal values of this population, which represents a sample of the Mexican growing urban middle-class. The mean age in the sample was 50 years; 59% were females. Around 50% of the entire group were overweighed, while around 24% were obese. 32% smoked; 32% were hypertensive with a 20% rate of controlled pressure. 6% had diabetes, and 14% had impaired fasting glucose; 66% had total cholesterol ≥ 200 mg/dL; 62% showed HDL-c levels150 mg/dL, and 34% levels of LDL-c ≥ 160 mg/dL. Half of the population studied had the metabolic syndrome. These data show a population with a high-risk profile, secondary to the agglomeration of several cardiovascular risk factors. Copyright © 2012 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  18. Interpolating a consumption variable for scaling and generalizing potential population pressure on urbanizing natural areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varanka, Dalia; Jiang, Bin; Yao, Xiaobai

    2010-01-01

    Measures of population pressure, referring in general to the stress upon the environment by human consumption of resources, are imperative for environmental sustainability studies and management. Development based on resource consumption is the predominant factor of population pressure. This paper presents a spatial model of population pressure by linking consumption associated with regional urbanism and ecosystem services. Maps representing relative geographic degree and extent of natural resource consumption and degree and extent of impacts on surrounding areas are new, and this research represents the theoretical research toward this goal. With development, such maps offer a visualization tool for planners of various services, amenities for people, and conservation planning for ecologist. Urbanization is commonly generalized by census numbers or impervious surface area. The potential geographical extent of urbanism encompasses the environmental resources of the surrounding region that sustain cities. This extent is interpolated using kriging of a variable based on population wealth data from the U.S. Census Bureau. When overlayed with land-use/land-cover data, the results indicate that the greatest estimates of population pressure fall within mixed forest areas. Mixed forest areas result from the spread of cedar woods in previously disturbed areas where further disturbance is then suppressed. Low density areas, such as suburbanization and abandoned farmland are characteristic of mixed forest areas.

  19. The Rise of Urban Slum in Nigeria: Implications on the Urban ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... defacement of the urban landscape in Nigeria. It recommends that Government and city planners should provide affordable land and low cost housing for the urban dwellers. This will enable people to own their property or rent as the case may be. Keywords: Urban Slum, Urban Landscape, Implication, Population, Growth

  20. Urban and rural populations and labour-force structures: current patterns and their implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcoux, A

    1990-01-01

    The discussion of the changing structure in urban and rural areas due to changing migration patterns reflects the effect on crop designation and production, the connection to development and fertility issues, and the labor force structure. Different patterns of migration by sex occur between Ethiopia where female rural-to-urban migration is the dominant trend and Indonesia where males moving to urban areas occurs. When countries are identified as primarily male urban and female rural, the migration pattern is male rural-to-urban and is concentrated in African countries, whereas the reverse with female urban and male rural occurs in Latin America and developed countries. The tendency of the age structure in developed and developing countries is for the concentration of the 20 -49 year olds in urban areas and the under 20 and over 49 in rural areas. It is determined that those under 20 have 3 times greater importance in developing rather than developed countries. While in Tunisia and the Near East the over-age-49 rural population has increased, in Cameroon, Myanmar, and Bangladesh, the rural under-age-30 population has increased suggesting different migration patterns; however, there is insufficient computerized data for analysis of regional world trends. The migration pattern of child bearing age women affects the aging rural population in either of two ways. 1) Women stay and bear children and help with farm production while male migrate, thus increasing the youth and over 50 populations. 2) Whole families move with only the aging remaining. The determinants of migration are complex. When there is inequality in land distribution, the most mobile population are those without land or with very small holdings. If agricultural workers are dependent on a landlord, then migration is decreased. Technology and mechanization which have predominated in the last decades can both displace labor in rural areas when situated next to farms and increase labor when multiple

  1. Population genetic structure of urban malaria vector Anopheles stephensi in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Richa; Sharma, Arvind; Kumar, Ashwani; Dube, Madhulika; Gakhar, S K

    2016-04-01

    Malaria is a major public health problem in India because climatic condition and geography of India provide an ideal environment for development of malaria vector. Anopheles stephensi is a major urban malaria vector in India and its control has been hampered by insecticide resistance. In present study population genetic structure of A. stephensi is analyzed at macro geographic level using 13 microsatellite markers. Significantly high genetic differentiation was found in all studied populations with differentiation values (FST) ranging from 0.0398 to 0.1808. The geographic distance was found to be playing a major role in genetic differentiation between different populations. Overall three genetic pools were observed and population of central India was found to be coexisting in two genetic pools. High effective population size (Ne) was found in all the studied populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. [A longitudinal study of urban-rural growth differences among infants fed with breast milk in six economically better areas in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    To understand the differences between urban and rural breast-fed infants' growth patterns. In economically better regions of six provinces in China, 1147 urban and 1058 rural subjects were recruited by the project respectively, and their longitudinal weight, length, and head circumference were measured from birth to 12 months old. The monitoring frequency was 16 times in total. Analysis was conducted to compare the growth patterns between 497 of urban and 764 of rural subjects meeting the breast-fed babies definition by WHO. During the first year after birth, urban breast-feeding boys' weight, length, head circumference increased by 7.13 kg, 26.9 cm, and 12.4 cm respectively, and 6.60 kg, 26.1 cm, and 11.9 cm for girls. The corresponding values of rural population were 6.70 kg, 25.7 cm and 12.4 cm for boys, and 6.20 kg, 25.0 cm, and 11.8 cm for girls respectively. The gaps existed in the three physical indexes between urban and rural breastfeeding babies were 110 - 480 g, 1.2 - 2.0 cm and 0.1 - 0.6 cm for boys, and 200 - 510 g, 1.3 - 1.7 cm, and 0.4 - 0.6 cm for girls. In about 50% of monitoring age points, monthly increments of urban boy's weight presented higher than rural samples, but only 17% for girl's weight, and boy/girl's length and head circumference. The urban-rural regional gaps in breast-fed infants' physical development were not optimistic and seemed to be wider in boys than in girls. There are still large room for improvement for growth of infants in rural areas.

  3. Particle growth in an isoprene-rich forest: Influences of urban, wildfire, and biogenic air masses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunsch, Matthew J.; Schmidt, Stephanie A.; Gardner, Daniel J.; Bondy, Amy L.; May, Nathaniel W.; Bertman, Steven B.; Pratt, Kerri A.; Ault, Andrew P.

    2018-04-01

    Growth of freshly nucleated particles is an important source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and has been studied within a variety of environments around the world. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the sources of the precursor gases leading to particle growth, particularly in isoprene-rich forests. In this study, particle growth events were observed from the 14 total events (31% of days) during summer measurements (June 24 - August 2, 2014) at the Program for Research on Oxidants PHotochemistry, Emissions, and Transport (PROPHET) tower within the forested University of Michigan Biological Station located in northern Michigan. Growth events were observed within long-range transported air masses from urban areas, air masses impacted by wildfires, as well as stagnant, forested/regional air masses. Growth events observed during urban-influenced air masses were prevalent, with presumably high oxidant levels, and began midday during periods of high solar radiation. This suggests that increased oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) likely contributed to the highest observed particle growth in this study (8 ± 2 nm h-1). Growth events during wildfire-influenced air masses were observed primarily at night and had slower growth rates (3 ± 1 nm h-1). These events were likely influenced by increased SO2, O3, and NO2 transported within the smoke plumes, suggesting a role of NO3 oxidation in the production of semi-volatile compounds. Forested/regional air mass growth events likely occurred due to the oxidation of regionally emitted BVOCs, including isoprene, monoterpenes, and sesquiterpenes, which facilitated multiday growth events also with slower rates (3 ± 2 nm h-1). Intense sulfur, carbon, and oxygen signals in individual particles down to 20 nm, analyzed by transmission electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (TEM-EDX), suggest that H2SO4 and secondary organic aerosol contributed to particle growth. Overall, aerosol

  4. Responses of herbaceous plants to urban air pollution: Effects on growth, phenology and leaf surface characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honour, Sarah L.; Bell, J. Nigel B.; Ashenden, Trevor W.; Cape, J. Neil; Power, Sally A.

    2009-01-01

    Vehicle exhaust emissions are a dominant feature of urban environments and are widely believed to have detrimental effects on plants. The effects of diesel exhaust emissions on 12 herbaceous species were studied with respect to growth, flower development, leaf senescence and leaf surface wax characteristics. A diesel generator was used to produce concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) representative of urban conditions, in solardome chambers. Annual mean NO x concentrations ranged from 77 nl l -l to 98 nl l -1 , with NO:NO 2 ratios of 1.4-2.2, providing a good experimental simulation of polluted roadside environments. Pollutant exposure resulted in species-specific changes in growth and phenology, with a consistent trend for accelerated senescence and delayed flowering. Leaf surface characteristics were also affected; contact angle measurements indicated changes in surface wax structure following pollutant exposure. The study demonstrated clearly the potential for realistic levels of vehicle exhaust pollution to have direct adverse effects on urban vegetation. - Fumigation experiments demonstrate adverse effects of exhaust emissions on urban vegetation

  5. Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aburas, Maher Milad; Ho, Yuek Ming; Ramli, Mohammad Firuz; Ash'aari, Zulfa Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The creation of an accurate simulation of future urban growth is considered one of the most important challenges in urban studies that involve spatial modeling. The purpose of this study is to improve the simulation capability of an integrated CA-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model using CA-MC based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and CA-MC based on Frequency Ratio (FR), both applied in Seremban, Malaysia, as well as to compare the performance and accuracy between the traditional and hybrid models. Various physical, socio-economic, utilities, and environmental criteria were used as predictors, including elevation, slope, soil texture, population density, distance to commercial area, distance to educational area, distance to residential area, distance to industrial area, distance to roads, distance to highway, distance to railway, distance to power line, distance to stream, and land cover. For calibration, three models were applied to simulate urban growth trends in 2010; the actual data of 2010 were used for model validation utilizing the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Kappa coefficient methods Consequently, future urban growth maps of 2020 and 2030 were created. The validation findings confirm that the integration of the CA-MC model with the FR model and employing the significant driving force of urban growth in the simulation process have resulted in the improved simulation capability of the CA-MC model. This study has provided a novel approach for improving the CA-MC model based on FR, which will provide powerful support to planners and decision-makers in the development of future sustainable urban planning.

  6. The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickens, Bradley A; Marcus, Jeffrey F; Carpenter, John P; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J; Collazo, Jaime A

    2017-04-15

    A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010-2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

  8. Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, E.

    2012-06-01

    Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

  9. Some Important Observations on the Populations of Hooded Vultures Necrosyrtes monachus in Urban Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Gbogbo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite major declines in the population of vultures around the world, noticeable increases were reported in the populations of Hooded Vultures Necrosyrtes monachus over the past decade in Accra—an important vulture habitat in Ghana. In recent times, however, there is a growing concern that the vulture numbers are decreasing even though scientific data to support this is nonexisting. As a vital zoogeographical and conservation tool, it is important to keep an up-to-date knowledge about urban bird populations amidst rapid urbanization and associated changes. Using a combination of field data, literature review, and stakeholder consultations, it was indicative that severe decline might have indeed occurred in the populations of Hooded Vultures in Accra. Evidence suggests the killing of vultures for consumption, traditional medicine, and black magic in an undercover trade with possible transboundary connections as important underlying factor. Additional factors suspected to underlie the declines include changes in management of urban facilities and destruction of roosting and nesting trees. The implications of interspecific competition with Pied Crows Corvus albus on Hooded Vultures however remain unclear. There is an urgent need for conservation campaign and education to save the Hooded Vulture in Ghana.

  10. Urban population genetics of slum-dwelling rats (Rattus norvegicus) in Salvador, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kajdacsi, Brittney; Costa, Federico; Hyseni, Chaz; Porter, Fleur; Brown, Julia; Rodrigues, Gorete; Farias, Helena; Reis, Mitermeyer G.; Childs, James E.; Ko, Albert I.; Caccone, Adalgisa

    2013-01-01

    Throughout the developing world, urban centers with sprawling slum settlements are rapidly expanding and invading previously forested ecosystems. Slum communities are characterized by untended refuse, open sewers, and overgrown vegetation, which promote rodent infestation. Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus), are reservoirs for epidemic transmission of many zoonotic pathogens of public health importance. Understanding the population ecology of R. norvegicus is essential to formulate effective rodent control strategies, as this knowledge aids estimation of the temporal stability and spatial connectivity of populations. We screened for genetic variation, characterized the population genetic structure, and evaluated the extent and patterns of gene flow in the urban landscape using 17 microsatellite loci in 146 rats from 9 sites in the city of Salvador, Brazil. These sites were divided between three neighborhoods within the city spaced an average of 2.7 km apart. Surprisingly, we detected very little relatedness among animals trapped at the same site and found high levels of genetic diversity, as well as structuring across small geographic distances. Most FST comparisons among sites were statistically significant, including sites Salvador, linked to the heterogeneous urban landscape. Future rodent control measures need to take into account the spatial and temporal linkage of rat populations in Salvador, as revealed by genetic data, to develop informed eradication strategies. PMID:24118116

  11. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

  12. Land development, land use, and urban sprawl in Puerto Rico integrating remote sensing and population census data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian Martinuzzi; William A. Gould; Olga M. Ramos Gonzalez

    2007-01-01

    The island of Puerto Rico has both a high population density and a long history of ineffective land use planning. This study integrates geospatial technology and population census data to understand how people use and develop the lands. We define three new regions for Puerto Rico: Urban (16%), Densely Populated Rural (36%), and Sparsely Populated Rural (48%). Eleven...

  13. Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volker C. Radeloff; David P. Helmers; H. Anu Kramer; Miranda H. Mockrin; Patricia M. Alexandre; Avi Bar-Massada; Van Butsic; Todd J. Hawbaker; Sebastián Martinuzzi; Alexandra D. Syphard; Susan I. Stewart

    2018-01-01

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle, and where wildfire problems are most pronounced. Here we report that the WUI in the United States grew rapidly from 1990 to 2010 in terms of both number of new houses (from 30.8 to 43.4 million; 41% growth) and land area (from 581,000 to 770,000 km2...

  14. World population growth, family planning, and American foreign policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharpless, J

    1995-01-01

    The US decision since the 1960s to link foreign policy with family planning and population control is noteworthy for its intention to change the demographic structure of foreign countries and the magnitude of the initiative. The current population ideologies are part of the legacy of 19th century views on science, morality, and political economy. Strong constraints were placed on US foreign policy since World War II, particularly due to presumptions about the role of developing countries in Cold War ideology. Domestic debates revolved around issues of feminism, birth control, abortion, and family political issues. Since the 1960s, environmental degradation and resource depletion were an added global dimension of US population issues. Between 1935 and 1958 birth control movements evolved from the ideologies of utopian socialists, Malthusians, women's rights activists, civil libertarians, and advocates of sexual freedom. There was a shift from acceptance of birth control to questions about the role of national government in supporting distribution of birth control. Immediately postwar the debates over birth control were outside political circles. The concept of family planning as a middle class family issue shifted the focus from freeing women from the burdens of housework to making women more efficient housewives. Family planning could not be taken as a national policy concern without justification as a major issue, a link to national security, belief in the success of intervention, and a justifiable means of inclusion in public policy. US government involvement began with agricultural education, technological assistance, and economic development that would satisfy the world's growing population. Cold War politics forced population growth as an issue to be considered within the realm of foreign policy and diplomacy. US government sponsored family planning was enthusiastic during 1967-74 but restrained during the 1980s. The 1990s has been an era of redefinition of

  15. Population-Adjusted Street Connectivity, Urbanicity and Risk of Obesity in the U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fahui; Wen, Ming; Xu, Yanqing

    2013-01-01

    Street connectivity, defined as the number of (3-way or more) intersections per area unit, is an important index of built environments as a proxy for walkability in a neighborhood. This paper examines its geographic variations across the rural-urban continuum (urbanicity), major racial-ethnic groups and various poverty levels. The population-adjusted street connectivity index is proposed as a better measure than the regular index for a large area such as county due to likely concentration of population in limited space within the large area. Based on the data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), this paper uses multilevel modeling to analyze its association with physical activity and obesity while controlling for various individual and county-level variables. Analysis of data subsets indicates that the influences of individual and county-level variables on obesity risk vary across areas of different urbanization levels. The positive influence of street connectivity on obesity control is limited to the more but not the mostly urbanized areas. This demonstrates the value of obesogenic environment research in different geographic settings, helps us reconcile and synthesize some seemingly contradictory results reported in different studies, and also promotes that effective policies need to be highly sensitive to the diversity of demographic groups and geographically adaptable. PMID:23667278

  16. Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radeloff, Volker C; Helmers, David P; Kramer, H Anu; Mockrin, Miranda H; Alexandre, Patricia M; Bar-Massada, Avi; Butsic, Van; Hawbaker, Todd J; Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Syphard, Alexandra D; Stewart, Susan I

    2018-03-27

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle, and where wildfire problems are most pronounced. Here we report that the WUI in the United States grew rapidly from 1990 to 2010 in terms of both number of new houses (from 30.8 to 43.4 million; 41% growth) and land area (from 581,000 to 770,000 km 2 ; 33% growth), making it the fastest-growing land use type in the conterminous United States. The vast majority of new WUI areas were the result of new housing (97%), not related to an increase in wildland vegetation. Within the perimeter of recent wildfires (1990-2015), there were 286,000 houses in 2010, compared with 177,000 in 1990. Furthermore, WUI growth often results in more wildfire ignitions, putting more lives and houses at risk. Wildfire problems will not abate if recent housing growth trends continue.

  17. Urban economies, urban livelihoods and natural resource-based economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: the constraints of a liberalized world economy

    OpenAIRE

    Potts, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    There is much speculation today about how rapid economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa is transforming development prospects in the region. However, in terms of a broad, multi-dimensional, understanding of the term ‘development’, into which social justice must be factored, there are real concerns about whether the undoubted improvements in GDP growth in many countries are strongly connected to urban-located investment and job growth. Many African countries remain poorly placed, in terms of glo...

  18. Factors Associated with Physical Inactivity among Adult Urban Population of Puducherry, India: A Population Based Cross-sectional Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newtonraj, Ariarathinam; Murugan, Natesan; Singh, Zile; Chauhan, Ramesh Chand; Velavan, Anandan; Mani, Manikandan

    2017-05-01

    Physical inactivity is the fourth leading cause of death worldwide. Increase in physical activity decreases the incidence of cardiovascular diseases, Type 2 diabetes, stroke, and improves psychological wellbeing. To study the level of physical inactivity among the adult population in an urban area of Puducherry in India and its associated risk factors. This cross-sectional study was conducted among 569 adult participants from an urban area of Pondicherry. The level of physical inactivity was measured by using WHO standard Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ). Overall prevalence of physical inactivity in our study was 49.7% (CI: 45.6-53.8). Among the physically active people, contribution of physical activity by work was 77.4%, leisure time activities were 11.6% and transport time was 11%. Both men and women were equally inactive {Physically inactive among women was 50% (CI:44.1-55.9)} and {Physically inactive among men was 49.5% (CI:43.8-55.2)}. Prevalence of physical inactivity was increasing with increasing age. Non tobacco users were two times more active than tobacco users {Adjusted Odds Ratio: 2.183 (1.175- 4.057)}. Employed were more active as compared to retired {Adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.412 (0.171-0.991)}, students {Adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.456 (0.196-1.060)}, house wives {Adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.757 (0.509-1.127)} and unemployed {Adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.538 (0.271-1.068)}. Non alcoholics were only 0.34 times as active as alcoholics. Level of physical activity was found to be insufficient among adult urban population of Puducherry. Working adult population found to be active, that too due to their work pattern. There is a need to promote leisure time and travelling time physical activity.

  19. A Framework for Assessing the Impact of Urbanization and Population Pressure on Garo Hills Landscape of North-East India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pramod Kumar YADAV

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The important factors influencing landscape changes could be climate, geology, topography, plant succession, species extinction and species evolution. Human, since time immemorial, have influenced the landscape they live in a variety of ways resulting in varied land use changes. Increase in population leads to the expansion in agriculture land, built-up areas, uncontrolled forest fires, mining of minerals, extraction of timber and permanent plantations, which in turn are responsible for habitat degradation and loss of biodiversity. Garo hills districts of Meghalaya are endowed with rich biodiversity both in terms of flora and fauna. With the increasing of population there is pressure exerted on these natural resources for the livelihood as there is hardly any alternative available. In the meantime small forest based urban centers were developed and with the expansion of these the requirement of the local people also changed. Due to urbanization and population pressure the traditional shifting cultivation (jhum, which is still the only livelihood of many areas of the Garo hills; have been converted into permanent cash crop areas. This conversion has a reverse impact on the environment. In the traditional jhumming method the native forests which were slushed and burned for agriculture purposes could revive in 18 to 20 years’ time (Jhum cycle. But due to the introduction of economically sound plantation crops like areca nut, cashew nut and tea the native diversity of the forest area is in the verse of extinction. The present study reveals that rapid population growth is the solely responsible factor for changes the landscape of Garo hills of Meghalaya.

  20. Spatiotemporal Effects of Climate Variability and Urban Growth on the "Valle de Toluca" Aquifer (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastachi-Loza, C. A.; Diaz-Delgado, C.; Esteller, M. V.; Gomez-Albores, M. A.; Becerril, R.; Ruiz-Gomez, M. D.

    2013-05-01

    Toluca city is located in the "Valle de Toluca" at the upper course of the Lerma river basin, is an important economic center which contributes with 1.2% of Gross National Product (GNP) since it is an industrial city, The city has grown due to the economic development sustained by the "Valle de Toluca" aquifer which provides water for human consumption, industrial facilities and crop irrigation. Recent studies have shown that in the last 50 years the annual precipitation rate in Toluca has increased 122 mm, whereas the daily minimum temperature has increased 1.1 °C and the daily maximum temperature has also increased 0.8 °C. These results show a general overview of the change in the climate conditions of the city; however they do not show the spatial distribution of the change. For this reason, the aim of this work was to evaluate the spatiotemporal change of precipitation rates and urban growth in order to determine their effects over the "Valle de Toluca" aquifer. In order to detect the urban growth, a supervised classification technique has been used taking into account Landsat TM satellite images between 1973, 1986, 2000 and 2005. A yearly spatiotemporal raster set of rainfall rates from 1980 to 2010 were obtained interpolating data from 812 climatologic stations. To evaluate the effect in annual precipitation rates and urban growth over the aquifer, we interpolate data from 38 piezometers from 1980 to 2010 to obtain a spatiotemporal raster set. The piezometric values correspond to the aquifer's upper level. The spatiotemporal raster sets were analyzed with the non-parametric Theil-Sen test to determine trends in piezometric levels and precipitation rates. Finally the urban growth, spatial-temporal trends of precipitation rates and piezometric levels were displayed in a GIS and then subjectively analyzed to figure out coincidences. An increase in annual precipitation rates (+87 mm) over Toluca's Valley during the last three decades was observed specially

  1. An optimum city size? The scaling relationship for urban population and fine particulate (PM_2_._5) concentration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Lijian; Zhou, Weiqi; Pickett, Steward T.A.; Li, Weifeng; Li, Li

    2016-01-01

    We utilize the distribution of PM_2_._5 concentration and population in large cities at the global scale to illustrate the relationship between urbanization and urban air quality. We found: 1) The relationship varies greatly among continents and countries. Large cities in North America, Europe, and Latin America have better air quality than those in other continents, while those in China and India have the worst air quality. 2) The relationships between urban population size and PM_2_._5 concentration in large cities of different continents or countries were different. PM_2_._5 concentration in large cities in North America, Europe, and Latin America showed little fluctuation or a small increasing trend, but those in Africa and India represent a “U” type relationship and in China represent an inverse “U” type relationship. 3) The potential contribution of population to PM_2_._5 concentration was higher in the large cities in China and India, but lower in other large cities. - Highlights: • Urban population and PM_2_._5 concentration varies greatly among regions. • Urban population size increase does not always enhances PM_2_._5 concentration. • Population's potential contribution to PM_2_._5 concentration higher in China. - We utilize the distribution of PM_2_._5 concentration and population in large cities at the global scale to illustrate the relationship between urbanization and urban air quality.

  2. Contribution of population growth to per capita income and sectoral output growth in Japan, 1880-1970.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, M; Kennedy, G

    1984-09-01

    The authors measured the positive and negative contributions of population and labor force growth to the growth of per capita income and sectoral output in Japan in the 1880-1970 period. A 2-sector growth accounting model that treats population and labor growth as separate variables was used. 3 alternative methods were used: the Residual method, the Verdoorn method, and the factor augmenting rate method. The total contribution of population cum labor growth to per capita income growth tended to be negative in the 1880-1930 period and positive in the 1930-40 and 1950-70. Over the 1880-1970 period as a whole, population cum labor growth made a positive contribution to per capita income growth under the Residual method (0.35%/year), the factor augmenting rate method (0.29%/year), and the Verdoorn method (0.01%/year). In addition, population cum labor growth contributed positively to sectoral output growth. The average contribution to agricultural output growth ranged from 1.03% (Verdoorn) - 1.46%/year (factor augmenting rate), while the average contribution to nonagricultural output growth ranged from 1.22% (Verdoorn) - 1.60%/year (Residual). Although these results are dependent on the model used, the fact that all 3 methods yielded consistent results suggests that population cum labor growth did make a positive contribution to per capita income and sectoral output growth in Japan. These findings imply that in economies where the rate of technical change in agricultural and nonagricultural sectors exceeds population growth, policies that reduce agricultural elasticities may be preferable; on the other hand, policies that reduce agricultural elasticities are to be avoided in economies with low rates of technical change. Moreover, in the early stages of economic development, policies that increase agricultural income and price elasticities should be considered.

  3. Knowledge and perceptions of diabetes in urban and semi urban population of peshawar, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuhaid, M.; Diju, I.U.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Diabetes mellitus is a major health issue in Pakistan. The aim of this study was to evaluate the knowledge and perceptions of diabetes in a sample population of Peshawar. Methods: This crosssectional, descriptive study was carried out in seven different localities of Peshawar. A sample of 305 residents were interviewed aged from 15-60 years and above, using a questionnaire specifically designed and translated into Urdu language for convenience of selected subjects. Results: Knowledge of diabetes was suboptimal. The mean percentages of correct responses to questions regarding three classical symptoms and given complications were 47.1% and 30.8%. Excessive sugar intake, obesity, family history, lack of physical activities and stress were acknowledged by 46.2%, 42.3%, 39.3%, 33.4%, and 31.8% of the subjects respectively. Presence of family history and level of education were recognised to be associated with more knowledge. Conclusion: There is lack of awareness of major risk factors and some complications of diabetes mellitus. Level of education is a significant predictor regarding. (author)

  4. Population and labour force growth and patterns in ASEAN countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saw, S

    1988-01-01

    "The paper shows that the diverse labor dimensions prevailing in the ASEAN region can be attributed to changes in the structure of the society and economy in the course of recent economic development. It observes the considerable variety in the growth of the population and its effect on the labor force in the ASEAN region.... The paper details the similarity and diversity in the level and type of labor force participation rates. A common feature shared by ASEAN countries is a general pattern in the age-specific participation rate of men. In contrast, the women, aside from participating in the labor force at a much lower level than men at almost all ages, display diverse patterns of participation over the working age range. Lastly, the distribution of the labor force according to major industrial sectors in the six ASEAN countries is presented...." excerpt

  5. Urbanization and Condition of Urban Slums in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Digambar Abaji Chimankar

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The present paper attempted to study the urbanization in India and condition of urban slums in terms of water, sanitation, electricity, garbage collection and health care, and education which are supposed to be basic minimum needs for the slum dwellers. India is going through the process of rapid urbanization because of industrialization like other third world countries.  The percent of urbanization increase from 27.8 percent in 2001 to 31.1 percent in 2011 census. The increase in the percentage of population in urban areas is because of natural growth, rural to urban migration and the reclassification of village and towns. The share of the slum population in the total urban population of the country was 18.3 percent in 2001 while in 2011 it was 17.4 percent. The condition of urban slums in India is to be improved so as to make them better for living.

  6. Seroprevalence of hepatitis C and associated risk factors among an urban population in Haiti

    OpenAIRE

    Hepburn, Matthew J; Lawitz, Eric J

    2004-01-01

    Abstract Background The seroprevalence of hepatitis C varies substantially between countries and geographic regions. A better understanding of the seroprevalence of this disease, and the risk factors associated with seropositive status, supply data for the development of screening programs and provide insight into the transmission of the disease. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the seroprevalence of hepatitis C and associated risk factors in an urban population in Haiti. Me...

  7. Contributions of long-distance dispersal to population growth in colonising Pinus ponderosa populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

    2013-03-01

    Long-distance dispersal is an integral part of plant species migration and population development. We aged and genotyped 1125 individuals in four disjunct populations of Pinus ponderosa that were initially established by long-distance dispersal in the 16th and 17th centuries. Parentage analysis was used to determine if individuals were the product of local reproductive events (two parents present), long-distance pollen dispersal (one parent present) or long-distance seed dispersal (no parents present). All individuals established in the first century at each site were the result of long-distance dispersal. Individuals reproduced at younger ages with increasing age of the overall population. These results suggest Allee effects, where populations were initially unable to expand on their own, and were dependent on long-distance dispersal to overcome a minimum-size threshold. Our results demonstrate that long-distance dispersal was not only necessary for initial colonisation but also to sustain subsequent population growth during early phases of expansion. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  8. Cardiovascular Morbidity Profile Of Population Aged 60 Years And Above In Rural And Urban Areas Of Kanpur

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saurabh Goel

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cardiovascular morbidity is a major contributor towards old age health problems which requires specialized care and if left unattended can deteriorate the quality of life and also lead to mortality. Therefore a study was planned to find out the prevalence of cardiovascular morbidity among geriatric population living in rural and urban areas ofKanpur.Objective: To find out the prevalence of cardiovascular morbidity in geriatric population in rural and urban area of Kanpur and also to study the pattern of cardiovascular morbidity in two areas.Material and methods: a cross sectional study was carried out in a randomly selected rural and urban area of Kanpur. 443 geriatrics in rural and 401 in urban area were interviewed and physically examined.Results: Geriatrics constituted 8.2% and 7.7% of total population in rural and urban area respectively. Majority ofpopulation in both areas belonged to 60-70years age group i.e. 78.8% and 75.8% respectively. 12.2% of rural geriatric and 12.5% of urban geriatric were suffering from some or other kind of cardiovascular morbidity. In rural area 39.1%>of geriatric population is hypertensive while in urban area hypertension is prevalent in 41.6%> of geriatric population. 98. l%>of morbid in rural and 86.0% in urban area were not doing any kind of exercise. A majority of population suffering from cardiovascular morbidity were not smoking currently. Majority i.e. 72.2% of geriatric population suffering from cardiovascular morbidity in rural area were having BMJ between 18.5-24.99 while in urban area 57.4% of them were having BMl>-25. Hypertensives consitiuted 57.4% in rural and 66.0% in urban area towards those who are suffering from cardiovascular morbidity.

  9. Cardiovascular Morbidity Profile Of Population Aged 60 Years And Above In Rural And Urban Areas Of Kanpur

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saurabh Goel

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cardiovascular morbidity is a major contributor towards old age health problems which requires specialized care and if left unattended can deteriorate the quality of life and also lead to mortality. Therefore a study was planned to find out the prevalence of cardiovascular morbidity among geriatric population living in rural and urban areas ofKanpur. Objective: To find out the prevalence of cardiovascular morbidity in geriatric population in rural and urban area of Kanpur and also to study the pattern of cardiovascular morbidity in two areas. Material and methods: a cross sectional study was carried out in a randomly selected rural and urban area of Kanpur. 443 geriatrics in rural and 401 in urban area were interviewed and physically examined. Results: Geriatrics constituted 8.2% and 7.7% of total population in rural and urban area respectively. Majority ofpopulation in both areas belonged to 60-70years age group i.e. 78.8% and 75.8% respectively. 12.2% of rural geriatric and 12.5% of urban geriatric were suffering from some or other kind of cardiovascular morbidity. In rural area 39.1%>of geriatric population is hypertensive while in urban area hypertension is prevalent in 41.6%> of geriatric population. 98. l%>of morbid in rural and 86.0% in urban area were not doing any kind of exercise. A majority of population suffering from cardiovascular morbidity were not smoking currently. Majority i.e. 72.2% of geriatric population suffering from cardiovascular morbidity in rural area were having BMJ between 18.5-24.99 while in urban area 57.4% of them were having BMl>-25. Hypertensives consitiuted 57.4% in rural and 66.0% in urban area towards those who are suffering from cardiovascular morbidity.

  10. Determining the drivers of population structure in a highly urbanized landscape to inform conservation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomassen, Henri A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Semple Delaney, Kathleen; Riley, Seth P D; Serieys, Laurel E K; Pease, Katherine; Wayne, Robert K; Smith, Thomas B

    2018-02-01

    Understanding the environmental contributors to population structure is of paramount importance for conservation in urbanized environments. We used spatially explicit models to determine genetic population structure under current and future environmental conditions across a highly fragmented, human-dominated environment in Southern California to assess the effects of natural ecological variation and urbanization. We focused on 7 common species with diverse habitat requirements, home-range sizes, and dispersal abilities. We quantified the relative roles of potential barriers, including natural environmental characteristics and an anthropogenic barrier created by a major highway, in shaping genetic variation. The ability to predict genetic variation in our models differed among species: 11-81% of intraspecific genetic variation was explained by environmental variables. Although an anthropogenically induced barrier (a major highway) severely restricted gene flow and movement at broad scales for some species, genetic variation seemed to be primarily driven by natural environmental heterogeneity at a local level. Our results show how assessing environmentally associated variation for multiple species under current and future climate conditions can help identify priority regions for maximizing population persistence under environmental change in urbanized regions. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  11. [Prevalence of type 2 diabetes and obesity in two Chilean aboriginal populations living in urban zones].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco, Elena P; Pérez, Francisco B; Angel, Bárbara B; Albala, Cecilia B; Santos, J Luis M; Larenas, Gladys Y; Montalvo, Domingo V

    2004-10-01

    The prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors is increasing in aboriginal populations in Chile. To study the prevalence of obesity, type 2 diabetes and serum lipids in two aboriginal populations, Mapuche and Aymara, that were transferred from a rural to a urban environment. Two groups of subjects over 20 years were analyzed, Mapuche and Aymara. The Mapuche group was formed by 42 men and 105 women, living in four urban communities of Santiago, and an Aymara group formed by 42 men and 118 women, living in Arica, in Northern Chile. Anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, lipid profile, oral glucose tolerance test, fasting insulin and serum leptin were determined. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes was 6.9% in Aymara and 8.2% in Mapuche subjects. The frequency of glucose intolerance was similar in both groups, but greater among men. A total blood cholesterol over 200 mg/dl was observed in 43.1% of Aymara and 27.9% of Mapuche subjects (p Mapuche individuals, respectively (p= NS). The prevalence of type 2 diabetes and dyslipidemia in turban aboriginal populations is higher than that of their rural counterparts. A possible explanation for these results are changes in lifestyles that come along with urbanization, characterized by a high consumption of saturated fat and refined sugars and a low level of physical activity.

  12. [Experiences of the urbanization process in Venezuela].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez Tirado, N

    1985-01-01

    The process of urbanization and urban growth in relation to economic development in Venezuela is analyzed. Four periods are considered: the period prior to the discovery of oil in Venezuela, which ended in the early 1940s; from the 1940s to the early 1970s; from the 1970s to 1983; and the present. Information is provided for the period 1936-1981 on total and urban population growth and on the size and number of urban centers.

  13. Limited urban growth: London's street network dynamics since the 18th century.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Paolo Masucci

    Full Text Available We investigate the growth dynamics of Greater London defined by the administrative boundary of the Greater London Authority, based on the evolution of its street network during the last two centuries. This is done by employing a unique dataset, consisting of the planar graph representation of nine time slices of Greater London's road network spanning 224 years, from 1786 to 2010. Within this time-frame, we address the concept of the metropolitan area or city in physical terms, in that urban evolution reveals observable transitions in the distribution of relevant geometrical properties. Given that London has a hard boundary enforced by its long standing green belt, we show that its street network dynamics can be described as a fractal space-filling phenomena up to a capacitated limit, whence its growth can be predicted with a striking level of accuracy. This observation is confirmed by the analytical calculation of key topological properties of the planar graph, such as the topological growth of the network and its average connectivity. This study thus represents an example of a strong violation of Gibrat's law. In particular, we are able to show analytically how London evolves from a more loop-like structure, typical of planned cities, toward a more tree-like structure, typical of self-organized cities. These observations are relevant to the discourse on sustainable urban planning with respect to the control of urban sprawl in many large cities which have developed under the conditions of spatial constraints imposed by green belts and hard urban boundaries.

  14. Limited urban growth: London's street network dynamics since the 18th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masucci, A Paolo; Stanilov, Kiril; Batty, Michael

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the growth dynamics of Greater London defined by the administrative boundary of the Greater London Authority, based on the evolution of its street network during the last two centuries. This is done by employing a unique dataset, consisting of the planar graph representation of nine time slices of Greater London's road network spanning 224 years, from 1786 to 2010. Within this time-frame, we address the concept of the metropolitan area or city in physical terms, in that urban evolution reveals observable transitions in the distribution of relevant geometrical properties. Given that London has a hard boundary enforced by its long standing green belt, we show that its street network dynamics can be described as a fractal space-filling phenomena up to a capacitated limit, whence its growth can be predicted with a striking level of accuracy. This observation is confirmed by the analytical calculation of key topological properties of the planar graph, such as the topological growth of the network and its average connectivity. This study thus represents an example of a strong violation of Gibrat's law. In particular, we are able to show analytically how London evolves from a more loop-like structure, typical of planned cities, toward a more tree-like structure, typical of self-organized cities. These observations are relevant to the discourse on sustainable urban planning with respect to the control of urban sprawl in many large cities which have developed under the conditions of spatial constraints imposed by green belts and hard urban boundaries.

  15. Grassland ecology and population growth: striking a balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, D; Duan, C; Zhang, D

    2000-06-01

    Degradation of forest and grasslands in western China attributes to the soil erosion and desertification in the country. Researchers have established that the primary reason for the degradation of grasslands is overgrazing, which in turn is caused by a number of factors, including over-population and over-reliance on animal husbandry. In addition, the existing administrative system has also proved ineffective in ensuring sustainable development. On contrary, many local governments even encourage exploitative development of grassland; thus, localities opened up grassland for growing crops in an effort to increase income. According to estimates, degraded grassland accounts for more than one-third of utilizable acreage and another one-third suffers from a profusion of rats and pests. To redress the situation, central government should implement strategies in achieving sustainable development, such as providing banking and tax incentives for the development of the secondary and tertiary industries, and supporting education and training of youths from herding areas. Moreover, government should increase spending on infrastructural construction and ecological preservation. Finally, the family planning program needs to be enforced to control population growth and improve the quality of peoples¿ lives.

  16. The Challenge of Forecasting Metropolitan Growth: Urban Characteristics Based Models versus Regional Dummy Based Models

    OpenAIRE

    NA

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a study of errors in forecasting the population of Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the Primary MSAs of Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas and New England MAs. The forecasts are for the year 2000 and are based on a semi-structural model estimated by Mills and Lubelle using 1970 to 1990 census data on population, employment and relative real wages. This model allows the testing of regional effects on population and employment growth. The year 2000 forecasts are f...

  17. The Urban Environment and Childhood Asthma (URECA birth cohort study: design, methods, and study population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandel Megan T

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The incidence and morbidity of wheezing illnesses and childhood asthma is especially high in poor urban areas. This paper describes the study design, methods, and population of the Urban Environment and Childhood Asthma (URECA study, which was established to investigate the immunologic causes of asthma among inner-city children. Methods and Results URECA is an observational prospective study that enrolled pregnant women in central urban areas of Baltimore, Boston, New York City, and St. Louis and is following their offspring from birth through age 7 years. The birth cohort consists of 560 inner-city children who have at least one parent with an allergic disease or asthma, and all families live in areas in which at least 20% of the population has incomes below the poverty line. In addition, 49 inner-city children with no parental history of allergies or asthma were enrolled. The primary hypothesis is that specific urban exposures in early life promote a unique pattern of immune development (impaired antiviral and increased Th2 responses that increases the risk of recurrent wheezing and allergic sensitization in early childhood, and of asthma by age 7 years. To track immune development, cytokine responses of blood mononuclear cells stimulated ex vivo are measured at birth and then annually. Environmental assessments include allergen and endotoxin levels in house dust, pre- and postnatal maternal stress, and indoor air nicotine and nitrogen dioxide. Nasal mucous samples are collected from the children during respiratory illnesses and analyzed for respiratory viruses. The complex interactions between environmental exposures and immune development will be assessed with respect to recurrent wheeze at age 3 years and asthma at age 7 years. Conclusion The overall goal of the URECA study is to develop a better understanding of how specific urban exposures affect immune development to promote wheezing illnesses and asthma.

  18. MITIGATION SCENARIOS FOR RESIDENTIAL FIRES IN DENSELY POPULATED URBAN SETTLEMENTS IN SUKAHAJI VILLAGE, BANDUNG CITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saut Aritua Hasiholan Sagala

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Residential fires are a form of disaster that often occurs in urban areas especially in densely populated settlements. This study looks at possible mitigation scenarios for this kind of disaster. A case study was conducted in Babakan Ciparay Sub-District in Bandung City, among the densely populated settlements, and was focused especially on Sukahaji Village, a sub-unit of Babakan Ciparay, which is the most densely populated village in Bandung City with up to 234.14 people/ha. There have been six structural fires recorded from 2007 until 2010 occurring in Sukahaji. This study applied stratified random sampling as the preferred sampling technique and data collection method from a total population of 3,227 buildings. The data was then examined using risk analysis. The results have led to two intervention measures suggested as mitigation scenarios for residential fires that can be applied within the Sukahaji Village. The study concludes that mitigation measures through strengthening community capacity can be the principal option in reducing risk to fires in densely populated urban settlements.

  19. The impact of accelerating faster than exponential population growth on genetic variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reppell, Mark; Boehnke, Michael; Zöllner, Sebastian

    2014-03-01

    Current human sequencing projects observe an abundance of extremely rare genetic variation, suggesting recent acceleration of population growth. To better understand the impact of such accelerating growth on the quantity and nature of genetic variation, we present a new class of models capable of incorporating faster than exponential growth in a coalescent framework. Our work shows that such accelerated growth affects only the population size in the recent past and thus large samples are required to detect the models' effects on patterns of variation. When we compare models with fixed initial growth rate, models with accelerating growth achieve very large current population sizes and large samples from these populations contain more variation than samples from populations with constant growth. This increase is driven almost entirely by an increase in singleton variation. Moreover, linkage disequilibrium decays faster in populations with accelerating growth. When we instead condition on current population size, models with accelerating growth result in less overall variation and slower linkage disequilibrium decay compared to models with exponential growth. We also find that pairwise linkage disequilibrium of very rare variants contains information about growth rates in the recent past. Finally, we demonstrate that models of accelerating growth may substantially change estimates of present-day effective population sizes and growth times.

  20. Population Density and AIDS-Related Stigma in Large-Urban, Small-Urban, and Rural Communities of the Southeastern USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalichman, Seth; Katner, Harold; Banas, Ellen; Kalichman, Moira

    2017-07-01

    AIDS stigmas delay HIV diagnosis, interfere with health care, and contribute to mental health problems among people living with HIV. While there are few studies of the geographical distribution of AIDS stigma, research suggests that AIDS stigmas are differentially experienced in rural and urban areas. We conducted computerized interviews with 696 men and women living with HIV in 113 different zip code areas that were classified as large-urban, small-urban, and rural areas in a southeast US state with high-HIV prevalence. Analyses conducted at the individual level (N = 696) accounting for clustering at the zip code level showed that internalized AIDS-related stigma (e.g., the sense of being inferior to others because of HIV) was experienced with greater magnitude in less densely populated communities. Multilevel models indicated that after adjusting for potential confounding factors, rural communities reported greater internalized AIDS-related stigma compared to large-urban areas and that small-urban areas indicated greater experiences of enacted stigma (e.g., discrimination) than large-urban areas. The associations between anticipated AIDS-related stigma (e.g., expecting discrimination) and population density at the community-level were not significant. Results suggest that people living in rural and small-urban settings experience greater AIDS-related internalized and enacted stigma than their counterparts living in large-urban centers. Research is needed to determine whether low-density population areas contribute to or are sought out by people who experienced greater AIDS-related stigma. Regardless of causal directions, interventions are needed to address AIDS-related stigma, especially among people in sparsely populated areas with limited resources.

  1. Normative data and discriminative properties of short form 36 (SF-36 in Turkish urban population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akvardar Yildiz

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background SF-36 has been both translated into different languages and adapted to different cultures to obtain comparable data on health status internationally. However there have been only a limited number of studies focused on the discriminative ability of SF-36 regarding social and disease status in developing countries. The aim of this study was to obtain population norms of the short form 36 (SF-36 health survey and the association of SF-36 domains with demographic and socioeconomic variables in an urban population in Turkey. Methods A cross-sectional study. Face to face interviews were carried out with a sample of households. The sample was systematically selected from two urban Health Districts in Izmir, Turkey. The study group consisted of 1,279 people selected from a study population of 46,290 people aged 18 and over. Results Internal consistencies of the scales were high, with the exception of mental health and vitality. Physical health scales were associated with both age and gender. On the other hand, mental health scales were less strongly associated with age and gender. Women reported poorer health compared to men in general. Social risk factors (employment status, lower education and economic strain were associated with worse health profiles. The SF-36 was found to be capable of discriminating disease status. Conclusion Our findings, cautiously generalisable to urban population, suggest that the SF-36 can be a valuable tool for studies on health outcomes in Turkish population. SF-36 may also be a promising measure for research on health inequalities in Turkey and other developing countries.

  2. Urban dogs in rural areas: Human-mediated movement defines dog populations in southern Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villatoro, Federico J; Sepúlveda, Maximiliano A; Stowhas, Paulina; Silva-Rodríguez, Eduardo A

    2016-12-01

    Management strategies for dog populations and their diseases include reproductive control, euthanasia and vaccination, among others. However, the effectiveness of these strategies can be severely affected by human-mediated dog movement. If immigration is important, then the location of origin of dogs imported by humans will be fundamental to define the spatial scales over which population management and research should apply. In this context, the main objective of our study was to determine the spatial extent of dog demographic processes in rural areas and the proportion of dogs that could be labeled as immigrants at multiple spatial scales. To address our objective we conducted surveys in households located in a rural landscape in southern Chile. Interviews allowed us to obtain information on the demographic characteristics of dogs in these rural settings, human influence on dog mortality and births, the localities of origin of dogs living in rural areas, and the spatial extent of human-mediated dog movement. We found that most rural dogs (64.1%) were either urban dogs that had been brought to rural areas (40.0%), or adopted dogs that had been previously abandoned in rural roads (24.1%). Some dogs were brought from areas located as far as ∼700km away from the study area. Human-mediated movement of dogs, especially from urban areas, seems to play a fundamental role in the population dynamics of dogs in rural areas. Consequently, local scale efforts to manage dog populations or their diseases are unlikely to succeed if implemented in isolation, simply because dogs can be brought from surrounding urban areas or even distant locations. We suggest that efforts to manage or study dog populations and related diseases should be implemented using a multi-scale approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. The future is urban.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-05-01

    Urban centers are growing due to natural increase and the movement of people from rural areas. Urban areas are the traditional centers of trade, science, and culture, but growth over a threshold results in crime, congestion, and pollution. Sustainability is threatened in modern towns that are dependent on other sources for food, fuel, or water. Housing, water, food supplies, and sanitation, communication, and transportation services are threatened in rapidly growing cities. In 1990 45/100 people lived in towns or cities. Hyper-cities have grown in number to 20, of which 14 are in developing countries. 83% of world population increase is expected to occur in cities. In 48 countries with faster population growth cities had growth rates averaging about 6.1% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged 2.8%. In 49 countries with slower population growth, urban growth rates averaged only 3.6% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged about 1.8%. Squatter settlements are endemic to urban areas that are congested and without basic services, limited housing particularly for the poor, and few job opportunities. The number of street children in urban areas has risen. This child population is subjected to low wages, overwork, auto accidents, poor health, and lack of social services. Malnutrition is a more serious issue in urban areas. In the Philippines malnutrition is 3% nationally and 9% in Metro Manila. Rural land reform in the Philippines is no longer a viable solution. In Metro Manila squatters are expected to increase in number to 4 million people by the year 2000, which would be almost 50% of total population. The squatter areas are areas of neglect, decay, and poverty. Cities are viewed as development's "blind alleys."

  4. Urbanization and Inequality/Poverty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brantley Liddle

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The level of world urbanization has crossed the 50% mark, and nearly all future population growth is projected to occur in cities. Cities are disproportionately wealthy, but are associated with poverty, too. Addressing the dual challenges of urbanization and poverty is key to achieving sustainable development. This paper performs cross-sectional regressions, based on Kuznets, as a starting point for understanding the relationship between urbanization and poverty/inequality indicators. Increases in gross domestic product per capita unambiguously lowered poverty and narrowed rural-urban gaps. By contrast, levels of urbanization were either unrelated to poverty/inequality indicators and measures of rural-urban gaps, or had a nonlinear effect where, initially, increases in urbanization likewise led to improvements in those areas, while at higher levels of urbanization, increases in urbanization exacerbated poverty and rural-urban gaps.

  5. Social Networks and Health: Understanding the Nuances of Healthcare Access between Urban and Rural Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoah, Padmore Adusei; Edusei, Joseph; Amuzu, David

    2018-05-13

    Communities and individuals in many sub-Saharan African countries often face limited access to healthcare. Hence, many rely on social networks to enhance their chances for adequate health care. While this knowledge is well-established, little is known about the nuances of how different population groups activate these networks to improve access to healthcare. This paper examines how rural and urban dwellers in the Ashanti Region in Ghana distinctively and systematically activate their social networks to enhance access to healthcare. It uses a qualitative cross-sectional design, with in-depth interviews of 79 primary participants (28 urban and 51 rural residents) in addition to the views of eight community leaders and eight health personnel. It was discovered that both intimate and distanced social networks for healthcare are activated at different periods by rural and urban residents. Four main stages of social networks activation, comprising different individuals and groups were observed among rural and urban dwellers. Among both groups, physical proximity, privacy, trust and sense of fairness, socio-cultural meaning attached to health problems, and perceived knowledge and other resources (mainly money) held in specific networks inherently influenced social network activation. The paper posits that a critical analysis of social networks may help to tailor policy contents to individuals and groups with limited access to healthcare.

  6. Plasma carotenoids are associated with socioeconomic status in an urban Indigenous population: an observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maple-Brown Louise

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Indigenous Australians experience poorer health than other Australians. Poor diet may contribute to this, and be related to their generally lower socioeconomic status (SES. Even within Indigenous populations, SES may be important. Our aim was to identify factors associated with plasma carotenoids as a marker of fruit and vegetable intake among urban dwelling Indigenous Australians, with a particular focus on SES. Methods Cross sectional study in urban dwelling Indigenous Australians participating in the DRUID (Darwin Region Urban Indigenous Diabetes Study. An SES score, based on education, employment, household size, home ownership and income was computed and plasma carotenoids measured by high performance liquid chromatography in 897 men and women aged 15 - 81 years (mean 36, standard deviation 15. Linear regression analysis was used to determine the relationship between SES and plasma carotenoids, adjusting for demographic, health and lifestyle variables, including frequency of intakes of food groups (fruit, vegetables, takeaway foods, snacks and fruit/vegetable juice. Results SES was positively associated with plasma concentrations of lutein/zeaxanthin (p trend Conclusions Even within urban Indigenous Australians, higher SES was associated with higher concentrations of plasma carotenoids. Low plasma carotenoids have been linked with poor health outcomes; increasing accessibility of fruit and vegetables, as well as reducing smoking rates could increase concentrations and otherwise improve health, but our results suggest there may be additional factors contributing to lower carotenoid concentrations in Indigenous Australians.

  7. Social Stigma, Social Capital Reconstruction and Rural Migrants in Urban China: A Population Health Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xinguang; Stanton, Bonita; Kaljee, Linda M; Fang, Xiaoyi; Xiong, Qing; Lin, Danhua; Zhang, Liying; Li, Xiaoming

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examine migrant stigma and its effect on social capital reconstruction among rural migrants who possess legal rural residence but live and work in urban China. After a review of the concepts of stigma and social capital, we report data collected through in-depth interviews with 40 rural migrant workers and 38 urban residents recruited from Beijing, China. Findings from this study indicate that social stigma against rural migrants is common in urban China and is reinforced through media, social institutions and their representatives, and day-to-day interactions. As an important part of discrimination, stigma against migrant workers creates inequality, undermines trust, and reduces opportunities for interpersonal interactions between migrants and urban residents. Through these social processes, social stigma interferes with the reconstruction of social capital (including bonding, bridging and linking social capital) for individual rural migrants as well as for their communities. The interaction between stigma and social capital reconstruction may present as a mechanism by which migration leads to negative health consequences. Results from this study underscore the need for taking measures against migrant stigma and alternatively work toward social capital reconstruction for health promotion and disease prevention among this population.

  8. SOME ASPECTS OF FEATURES CONCEPT AND NATURE OF ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY LIFE URBAN POPULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirova M.

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Proved the concept and nature of the environmental safety of life of the urban population. A structural levels in the list of objects to enter the security levels of urban or rural communities of local communities, which changes the nature of the institutional environment environmental security. In assessing the quality of life of urban society used many parameters of socio-economic and environmental. General rules on the prevention of environmental degradation and risks to human health set forth in the applicable law "On Environmental Protection", on the basis of which developed a number of legal documents. As for the capital of Ukraine - Kyiv, it is a great cultural, historical and commercial and industrial center. So we can safely say that Kyiv is characterized by all the environmental problems that are inherent in all large cities. This, above all, traffic pollution, changes in the air quality, noise pollution, emissions of chemicals into the atmosphere, pollution, toxic waste, the problem of waste. But a special place in this region occupies a radioactive problem due to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Also, nearby, in the Kyiv region Kiev reservoir are with not the best environmental conditions. The most important components of ecosystems: the air of the city, urban and suburban water sources, soil city. International experts conducted a study in 215 cities around the world. Kyiv international ranking is 29 in place pollution. Thus, the problem of environmental security for the population of the city. Kyiv, as many large cities in Ukraine is quite relevant. In this regard, the article studies that the environmental safety of life of the urban population in the context of national security - a state of effective security systems (environment interconnected structural levels of the individual, the local community, society, state and international (global community of aggregate factors that endanger or threaten the very existence of which

  9. Recent Patterns of Population Change in America’s Urban Places,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-08-01

    0 00w a 0 0 3c 0 ON * 00 * Qj C) m 0 C\\ 0 N 4 N .- C𔃾-4 ..- 9 AI bo 0 0 u a, f~00 0~ ~~~ 0\\ 0 0~ 0Y w~ 0 f4 0)J CNCD G)40 & 00CC hi -C 0 22 0 00c log...Left Behind: Population Trends and Policy for Rural America," Rural Sociology, 36, 4: 449-470. Fuguitt, Glen V. and Calvin L. Beale, 1978, "Population...Redistribution in Nonmetropolitan Areas," in Sarah Mills (ed.), Population Distribution and Policy , Commission on Population Growth and the American Future

  10. Sprawl and mega-events: Economic growth and recent urban expansion in a city losing its competitive edge (Athens, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Salvati

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In the new context of contemporary cities, local competitiveness for financial resources has grown more than ever, resulting in cities characterised by important socioeconomic transformations. Earlier studies addressed the relation between urban expansion, socioeconomic development and mega-events only for specific areas and types of urban growth, often overlooking the role of mega-events in fuelling urban sprawl. As the host of the 2004 Olympic Games, Athens, Greece is a paradigmatic example for emerging cities hosting mega-events due to the close interconnection between the Olympics, infrastructure development and urban sprawl. This article connects the latent relationship between economic expansion driven by the Olympic Games and laissez-faire urbanism to the long-term unregulated urban expansion characterising Athens’s development. By providing room for the original wave of sprawl, the resulting socioeconomic context is interpreted as a signal of the weakness of the “competitive city” framework in poorly planned and long-deregulated urban contexts such as Athens. A comprehensive analysis of recent phases of economic growth and discontinuous urban expansion thus provides further insight into understanding sprawl processes in today’s cities, and helps distinguish the morphological patterns and socioeconomic dynamics that characterise urban expansion during sequential cycles of economic expansion and recession.

  11. Strong persistent growth differences govern individual performance and population dynamics in a tropical forest understorey palm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.; Zuidema, P.A.; Anten, N.P.R.; Martínez-Ramos, M.

    2012-01-01

    1. Persistent variation in growth rate between individual plants can have strong effects on population dynamics as fast growers reach the reproductive size at an earlier age and thus potentially contribute more to population growth than slow growers. In tropical forests, such persistent growth

  12. Population Growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Marc

    2002-01-01

    Examines population growth during the 1990s for a variety of geographic levels including regions, divisions, states, metropolitan areas, counties, and large cities. Compares growth rates for the 1990s with earlier decades to provide an historical context for present-day trends in population growth and decline. Discusses how differential population…

  13. Experimental design and estimation of growth rate distributions in size-structured shrimp populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, H T; Davis, Jimena L; Ernstberger, Stacey L; Hu, Shuhua; Artimovich, Elena; Dhar, Arun K

    2009-01-01

    We discuss inverse problem results for problems involving the estimation of probability distributions using aggregate data for growth in populations. We begin with a mathematical model describing variability in the early growth process of size-structured shrimp populations and discuss a computational methodology for the design of experiments to validate the model and estimate the growth-rate distributions in shrimp populations. Parameter-estimation findings using experimental data from experiments so designed for shrimp populations cultivated at Advanced BioNutrition Corporation are presented, illustrating the usefulness of mathematical and statistical modeling in understanding the uncertainty in the growth dynamics of such populations

  14. Seroprevalence of Scrub Typhus, Typhus, and Spotted Fever Among Rural and Urban Populations of Northern Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trung, Nguyen Vu; Hoi, Le Thi; Thuong, Nguyen Thi Hong; Toan, Tran Khanh; Huong, Tran Thi Kieu; Hoa, Tran Mai; Fox, Annette; Kinh, Nguyen van; van Doorn, H Rogier; Wertheim, Heiman F L; Bryant, Juliet E; Nadjm, Behzad

    2017-05-01

    AbstractRickettsial infections are recognized as important causes of fever throughout southeast Asia. Herein, we determined the seroprevalence to rickettsioses within rural and urban populations of northern Vietnam. Prevalence of individuals with evidence of prior rickettsial infections (IgG positive) was surprisingly low, with 9.14% (83/908) testing positive to the three major rickettsial serogroups thought to circulate in the region. Prevalence of typhus group rickettsiae (TG)-specific antibodies (6.5%, 58/908) was significantly greater than scrub typhus group orientiae (STG)- or spotted fever group rickettsiae (SFG)-specific antibodies ( P < 0.05). The majority of TG seropositives were observed among urban rather than rural residents ( P < 0.05). In contrast, overall antibody prevalence to STG and SFG were both very low (1.1%, 10/908 for STG; 1.7%, 15/908 for SFG), with no significant differences between rural and urban residents. These results provide data on baseline population characteristics that may help inform development of Rickettsia serological testing criteria in future clinical studies.

  15. Screening mammography uptake within Australia and Scotland in rural and urban populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Janni; Macleod, Catriona; McLaughlin, Deirdre; Woods, Laura M; Henderson, Robert; Watson, Angus; Kyle, Richard G; Hubbard, Gill; Mullen, Russell; Atherton, Iain

    2015-01-01

    To test the hypothesis that rural populations had lower uptake of screening mammography than urban populations in the Scottish and Australian setting. Scottish data are based upon information from the Scottish Breast Screening Programme Information System describing uptake among women residing within the NHS Highland Health Board area who were invited to attend for screening during the 2008 to 2010 round (N = 27,416). Australian data were drawn from the 2010 survey of the 1946-51 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (N = 9890 women). Contrary to our hypothesis, results indicated that women living in rural areas were not less likely to attend for screening mammography compared to women living in urban areas in both Scotland (OR for rural = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.06-1.29) and Australia (OR for rural = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.01-1.31). The absence of rural-urban differences in attendance at screening mammography demonstrates that rurality is not necessarily an insurmountable barrier to screening mammography.

  16. Urban "accidental" wetlands mediate water quality and heat exposure for homeless populations in a desert city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palta, M.

    2015-12-01

    In urban settings where humans interact in complex ways with ecosystems, there may be hidden or unanticipated benefits (services) or harm (disservices) conferred by the built environment. We examined interactions of a highly vulnerable population, the homeless, with urban waterways and wetlands in the desert city of Phoenix, Arizona, U.S.A. Climate change models project increases in heat, droughts, and extreme floods for the southwestern U.S. These projected changes pose a number of problems for sustainability and quality of future water supply, and the ability of human populations to mitigate heat stress and avoid fatalities. Urban wetlands that are created "accidentally" (by water pooling in abandoned areas of the landscape) have many structural (e.g., soils and hydrology) and functional (e.g., high denitrification) elements that mimic natural, unaltered aquatic systems. Accidental wetland systems in the dry bed of the Salt River, fed by storm and waste water from urban Phoenix, are located within economically depressed sections of the city, and show the potential for pollutant and heat mitigation. We used a mixed-method socio-ecological approach to examine wetland ecosystem functions and the ways in which homeless populations utilize Salt River wetlands for ecosystem services. Interviews and trash surveys indicated that homeless people are accessing and utilizing the wetlands as a source of running water, for sanitary and heat mitigation services, and for recreation and habitation. Environmental monitoring demonstrated that the wetlands can provide a reliable source of running water, nutrient and pathogen removal, heat mitigation, and privacy, but they may also pose a health risk to individuals coming in contact with the water through drinking or bathing. Whether wetlands provided a net benefit vs. harm varied according to site, season, and particular service, and several tradeoffs were identified. For example, heat is highest during the summer storm season

  17. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    OpenAIRE

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-01-01

    An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

  18. Measuring urban agglomeration using a city-scale dasymetric population map: A study in the Pearl River Delta, China

    OpenAIRE

    Wei, Chunzhu; Taubenböck, Hannes; Blaschke, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    The rates of urbanization and increase in urban sprawl that have occurred in China over the past thirty years have been unprecedented. This article presents a new city-scale dasymetric modelling approach that incorporates historical census data for 28 cities in the Pearl River Delta area of southern China. It combines Landsat imagery (from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015) with a ‘limiting variable’ estimation al-gorithm to generate a gridded estimate of population density. These gridded population...

  19. Does higher body mass index contribute to worse asthma control in an urban population?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clerisme-Beaty, Emmanuelle M; Karam, Sabine; Rand, Cynthia; Patino, Cecilia M; Bilderback, Andrew; Riekert, Kristin A; Okelo, Sande O.; Diette, Gregory B.

    2009-01-01

    Background Epidemiologic findings support a positive association between asthma and obesity. Objective Determine whether obesity or increasing level of body mass index (BMI) are associated with worse asthma control in an ethnically diverse urban population. Methods Cross sectional assessment of asthma control was done in asthmatics recruited from primary care offices using four different validated asthma control questionnaires: the Asthma Control and Communication Instrument (ACCI), the Asthma Control Test (ACT), the Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) and the Asthma Therapy Assessment Questionnaire (ATAQ). Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association between obesity and increasing BMI level and asthma control. Results Of 292 subjects mean age of 47 years, the majority were women (82%) and African American (67%). There was a high prevalence of obesity with 63%, with only 15% being normal weight. The mean score from all four questionnaires showed an average sub-optimal asthma control (mean score/maximum possible score): ACCI (8.3/19), ACT (15.4/ 25), ACQ (2.1/ 6), and ATAQ (1.3/ 4). Regression analysis showed no association between obesity or increasing BMI level and asthma control using all four questionnaires. This finding persisted even after adjusting for FEV1, smoking status, race, gender, selected co-morbid illnesses, and long-term asthma controller use. Conclusion Using four validated asthma control questionnaires, we failed to find an association between obesity and asthma control in an urban population with asthma. Weight loss may not be an appropriate strategy to improve asthma control in this population. Capsule Summary Using four different validated asthma control measures, there was no association between obesity or increasing body mass index and asthma control in a largely obese urban outpatient minority population. PMID:19615731

  20. Economic growth, urbanization, globalization, and the risks of emerging infectious diseases in China: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tong; Perrings, Charles; Kinzig, Ann; Collins, James P; Minteer, Ben A; Daszak, Peter

    2017-02-01

    Three interrelated world trends may be exacerbating emerging zoonotic risks: income growth, urbanization, and globalization. Income growth is associated with rising animal protein consumption in developing countries, which increases the conversion of wild lands to livestock production, and hence the probability of zoonotic emergence. Urbanization implies the greater concentration and connectedness of people, which increases the speed at which new infections are spread. Globalization-the closer integration of the world economy-has facilitated pathogen spread among countries through the growth of trade and travel. High-risk areas for the emergence and spread of infectious disease are where these three trends intersect with predisposing socioecological conditions including the presence of wild disease reservoirs, agricultural practices that increase contact between wildlife and livestock, and cultural practices that increase contact between humans, wildlife, and livestock. Such an intersection occurs in China, which has been a "cradle" of zoonoses from the Black Death to avian influenza and SARS. Disease management in China is thus critical to the mitigation of global zoonotic risks.

  1. Urban Growth in a Fragmented Landscape: Estimating the Relationship between Landscape Pattern and Urban Land Use Change in Germany, 2000-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, R.

    2013-12-01

    One of the highest priorities in the conservation and management of biodiversity, natural resources and other vital ecosystem services is the assessment of the mechanisms that drive urban land use change. Using key landscape indicators, this study addresses why urban land increased 6 percent overall in Germany from 2000-2006. Building on regional science and economic geography research, I develop a model of landscape change that integrates remotely sensed and other geospatial data, and socioeconomic data in a spatial autoregressive model to explain the variance in urban land use change observed in German kreise (counties) over the past decade. The results reveal three key landscape mechanisms that drive urban land use change across Germany, aligning with those observed in US studies: (1) the level of fragmentation, (2) the share of designated protected areas, and (3) the share of prime soil. First, as fragmentation of once continuous habitats in the landscape increases, extensive urban growth follows. Second, designated protected areas have the perverse effect of hastening urbanization in surrounding areas. Third, greater shares of prime, productive soil experienced less urban land take over the 6 year period, an effect that is stronger in the former East Germany, where the agricultural sector remains large. The results suggest that policy makers concentrate their conservation efforts on preexisting fragmented land with high shares of protected areas in Germany to effectively stem urban land take. Given that comparative studies of land use change are vital for the scientific community to grasp the wider global process of urbanization and coincident ecological impacts, the methodology employed here is easily exportable to land cover and land use research programs in other fields and geographic areas. Key words: Urban land use change, Ecosystem services, Landscape fragmentation, Remote sensing, Spatial regression models, GermanyOLS and Spatial Autoregressive Model

  2. Oral Health Inequalities between Rural and Urban Populations of the African and Middle East Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogunbodede, E O; Kida, I A; Madjapa, H S; Amedari, M; Ehizele, A; Mutave, R; Sodipo, B; Temilola, S; Okoye, L

    2015-07-01

    Although there have been major improvements in oral health, with remarkable advances in the prevention and management of oral diseases, globally, inequalities persist between urban and rural communities. These inequalities exist in the distribution of oral health services, accessibility, utilization, treatment outcomes, oral health knowledge and practices, health insurance coverage, oral health-related quality of life, and prevalence of oral diseases, among others. People living in rural areas are likely to be poorer, be less health literate, have more caries, have fewer teeth, have no health insurance coverage, and have less money to spend on dental care than persons living in urban areas. Rural areas are often associated with lower education levels, which in turn have been found to be related to lower levels of health literacy and poor use of health care services. These factors have an impact on oral health care, service delivery, and research. Hence, unmet dental care remains one of the most urgent health care needs in these communities. We highlight some of the conceptual issues relating to urban-rural inequalities in oral health, especially in the African and Middle East Region (AMER). Actions to reduce oral health inequalities and ameliorate rural-urban disparity are necessary both within the health sector and the wider policy environment. Recommended actions include population-specific oral health promotion programs, measures aimed at increasing access to oral health services in rural areas, integration of oral health into existing primary health care services, and support for research aimed at informing policy on the social determinants of health. Concerted efforts must be made by all stakeholders (governments, health care workforce, organizations, and communities) to reduce disparities and improve oral health outcomes in underserved populations. © International & American Associations for Dental Research 2015.

  3. POPULATION GROWTH AND PREFERENCE CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL WITH GENDER TIME DISTRIBUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The study builds a model of dynamic interactions between the birth rate, the mortality rate, the population, wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, leisure and children caring, habit formation and preference change. The production technology and markets are built on the Solow growth model. We base our modeling the population dynamics on the Haavelmo population model and the Barro-Becker fertility choice model. This study takes account of habit formation and preference change. Although it is influenced by the Ramsey growth theory with time preference and habit formation, it uses Zhang’s approach to the household with habit formation and preference change. We synthesize different dynamic forces in a compact framework, using the utility function proposed by Zhang. Analytically, we focus on transitional processes as well as economic equilibrium. As the economic system is given by autonomous nonlinear differential equations, it is not easy to analyze its behavior. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of an equilibrium point and plot the motion of the dynamic system. We examine the effects of changes in weights given to the habit stock of children, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the propensity to have children, the wife weighing less the habit stock of leisure time, the wife’s habit stock of leisure time having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, woman’s human capital being improved, a rise in the total factor productivity, and the mother spending more time on each child fostering.

  4. Prevalence of ischemic heart disease among urban population of Siliguri, West Bengal

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    Mandal Sukanta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To determine the prevalence of ischemic heart disease and the associated risk factors among the urban population of Siliguri. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional survey of a random sample of the population aged ≥40 years old in the Municipal Corporation area of Siliguri. Study variables were age, sex, occupation, addiction, food habit, physical activity, body mass index, blood pressure, and electrocardiogram change. Results: Out of 250 individuals who took part in this study, 29 (11.6% had ischemic heart disease (IHD and 118 (47.2% had hypertension. Males had a higher (13.5% prevalence of IHD than females (9.4%. About 5% of the patients had asymptomatic IHD. IHD among the study population is significantly associated with hypertension and smoking.

  5. Urbanization and the wealth of nations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, David E; Canning, David; Fink, Günther

    2008-02-08

    The proportion of a country's population living in urban areas is highly correlated with its level of income. Urban areas offer economies of scale and richer market structures, and there is strong evidence that workers in urban areas are individually more productive, and earn more, than rural workers. However, rapid urbanization is also associated with crowding, environmental degradation, and other impediments to productivity. Overall, we find no evidence that the level of urbanization affects the rate of economic growth. Our findings weaken the rationale for either encouraging or discouraging urbanization as part of a strategy for economic growth.

  6. Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Bouma, Menno J; Kohli, Vijay; Pascual, Mercedes

    2016-12-01

    The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria. Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India) that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors. Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a basis for more

  7. Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Santos-Vega

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria.Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors.Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a

  8. Spatial variability and macro‐scale drivers of growth for native and introduced Flathead Catfish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massie, Danielle L.; Smith, Geoffrey; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; Bunch, Aaron J.; Lucchesi, David O.; Wagner, Tyler

    2018-01-01

    Quantifying spatial variability in fish growth and identifying large‐scale drivers of growth are fundamental to many conservation and management decisions. Although fish growth studies often focus on a single population, it is becoming increasingly clear that large‐scale studies are likely needed for addressing transboundary management needs. This is particularly true for species with high recreational value and for those with negative ecological consequences when introduced outside of their native range, such as the Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris. This study quantified growth variability of the Flathead Catfish across a large portion of its contemporary range to determine whether growth differences existed between habitat types (i.e., reservoirs and rivers) and between native and introduced populations. Additionally, we investigated whether growth parameters varied as a function of latitude and time since introduction (for introduced populations). Length‐at‐age data from 26 populations across 11 states in the USA were modeled using a Bayesian hierarchical von Bertalanffy growth model. Population‐specific growth trajectories revealed large variation in Flathead Catfish growth and relatively high uncertainty in growth parameters for some populations. Relatively high uncertainty was also evident when comparing populations and when quantifying large‐scale patterns. Growth parameters (Brody growth coefficient [K] and theoretical maximum average length [L∞]) were not different (based on overlapping 90% credible intervals) between habitat types or between native and introduced populations. For populations within the introduced range of Flathead Catfish, latitude was negatively correlated with K. For native populations, we estimated an 85% probability that L∞ estimates were negatively correlated with latitude. Contrary to predictions, time since introduction was not correlated with growth parameters in introduced populations of Flathead Catfish

  9. The role of population on economic growth and development: evidence from developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Atanda, Akinwande A.; Aminu, Salaudeen B.; Alimi, Olorunfemi Y.

    2012-01-01

    The precise relationship between population growth and per capita income has been inconclusive in the literature and the nexus has been found not clearly explain the determinants of rapid population growth in developing countries that lacks fertility control and management framework. This forms the rationale for this study to access the trend of factors that influence rapid population growth in developing countries between 1980 and 2010. This paper examined the comparative trend review of pop...

  10. Prevalence and causes of low vision and blindness in an urban population: The Chennai Glaucoma Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijaya, Lingam; George, Ronnie; Asokan, Rashima; Velumuri, Lokapavani; Ramesh, Sathyamangalam Ve

    2014-04-01

    To evaluate the prevalence and causes of low vision and blindness in an urban south Indian population. Population-based cross-sectional study. Exactly 3850 subjects aged 40 years and above from Chennai city were examined at a dedicated facility in the base hospital. All subjects had a complete ophthalmic examination that included best-corrected visual acuity. Low vision and blindness were defined using World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. The influence of age, gender, literacy, and occupation was assessed using multiple logistic regression. Chi-square test, t-test, and multivariate analysis were used. Of the 4800 enumerated subjects, 3850 subjects (1710 males, 2140 females) were examined (response rate, 80.2%). The prevalence of blindness was 0.85% (95% CI 0.6-1.1%) and was positively associated with age and illiteracy. Cataract was the leading cause (57.6%) and glaucoma was the second cause (16.7%) for blindness. The prevalence of low vision was 2.9% (95% CI 2.4-3.4%) and visual impairment (blindness + low vision) was 3.8% (95% CI 3.2-4.4%). The primary causes for low vision were refractive errors (68%) and cataract (22%). In this urban population based study, cataract was the leading cause for blindness and refractive error was the main reason for low vision.

  11. Studies on manifestations of canine distemper virus infection in an urban dog population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blixenkrone-Møller, M; Svansson, V; Have, P; Orvell, C; Appel, M; Pedersen, I R; Dietz, H H; Henriksen, P

    1993-10-01

    An upsurge of canine distemper was recognized at the beginning of 1991 in the urban dog population of the Copenhagen area. The outbreak had the characteristics of a virulent morbillivirus introduction in a partly immune population, where the disease primarily was manifested in young individuals. Testing of single serum samples for the presence of canine distemper virus (CDV) IgM antibodies using an IgM ELISA confirmed current and recent CDV infections in an urban dog population, where the use of attenuated CDV vaccines was widespread. In 49 out of 66 sera from clinical cases suspected of canine distemper we detected CDV IgM antibodies, as compared to the detection of viral antigen by indirect immunofluorescence in 27 of 65 specimens of conjunctival cells. The antigenic make-up of isolates from acute and subacute clinical cases was investigated with a panel of 51 monoclonal antibodies directed against CDV and the related phocine distemper virus. The isolates exhibited an homogeneous reaction pattern and shared overall antigenic characteristics of the CDV prototype. The majority of cases were diagnosed among unvaccinated dogs and individuals with unknown or obscure vaccination record. However, severe clinical cases were also diagnosed in vaccinated individuals.

  12. [Use of psychoactive substances and contraceptive methods by the Brazilian urban population, 2005].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, Francisco I; Cunha, Cynthia B; Bertoni, Neilane

    2008-06-01

    To analyze the relationship between utilization patterns for condoms and other contraceptive methods and the consumption of alcohol and drugs. Exploratory study based on data from a probabilistic sample of 5,040 interviewees aged 16 to 65 years living in large urban regions of Brazil in 2005. The data were collected by means of questionnaires. The chi-square automatic interaction classification tree technique was used to study the use of condoms among interviewees of both sexes and other contraceptive methods among women, at the time of the last vaginal sexual intercourse. Among young and middle-aged adults of both sexes and young men in stable relationships, condom use was less frequent among those who said they used psychoactive substances (alcohol and/or illegal drugs). The possible modulating effect of psychoactive substances on contraceptive practices among mature women seems to be more straightforward, compared to the more subtle effects observed among younger women, for whom the different social classes they belonged to seemed to play a more important role. Despite the limitations resulting from an exploratory study, the fact that this was a representative sample of the urban population of Brazil and not from vulnerable populations, reinforces the need to implement integrated public policies directed towards the general population, with regard to preventing drug consumption, alcohol abuse, sexually transmitted infections, HIV/AIDS and unwanted pregnancy and promoting sexual and reproductive health.

  13. Morphometric characteristics of sycamore maple (Acer pseudoplatanus L. fruits in Novi Sad urban populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostić Saša

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows the results of the analysis of the fruit morphometric characteristics of 29 trees of sycamore maple (Acer pseudoplatanus L. and red - leaf sycamore maple (Acer pseudoplatanus ‘Аtropurpureum’ Späth. in Novi Sad area. Based on the test trees, it can be concluded that the analyzed secondary population of sycamore maple has a high level of intra - populations variability, based on different degrees of variability of measured parameters and statistically significant differences of all analyzed parameters within the analysed genotypes. The results indicate that there are certain differences between fruit of sycamore maple and its red - leaf variety. Given that there is no statistically significant difference between sites and different urban spaces, it can be concluded that stress factors caused by a high degree of urbanity do not affect the morphometric characteristics of fruits in the analyzed test trees. Testing the symmetry of fruits indicates a high level of genetic variability within the analyzed population.

  14. Prevalence and causes of low vision and blindness in an urban population: The Chennai Glaucoma Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lingam Vijaya

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To evaluate the prevalence and causes of low vision and blindness in an urban south Indian population. Settings and Design: Population-based cross-sectional study. Exactly 3850 subjects aged 40 years and above from Chennai city were examined at a dedicated facility in the base hospital. Materials and Methods: All subjects had a complete ophthalmic examination that included best-corrected visual acuity. Low vision and blindness were defined using World Health Organization (WHO criteria. The influence of age, gender, literacy, and occupation was assessed using multiple logistic regression. Statistical Analysis: Chi-square test, t-test, and multivariate analysis were used. Results: Of the 4800 enumerated subjects, 3850 subjects (1710 males, 2140 females were examined (response rate, 80.2%. The prevalence of blindness was 0.85% (95% CI 0.6-1.1% and was positively associated with age and illiteracy. Cataract was the leading cause (57.6% and glaucoma was the second cause (16.7% for blindness. The prevalence of low vision was 2.9% (95% CI 2.4-3.4% and visual impairment (blindness + low vision was 3.8% (95% CI 3.2-4.4%. The primary causes for low vision were refractive errors (68% and cataract (22%. Conclusions: In this urban population based study, cataract was the leading cause for blindness and refractive error was the main reason for low vision.

  15. Prevalence and causes of low vision and blindness in an urban population: The Chennai Glaucoma Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijaya, Lingam; George, Ronnie; Asokan, Rashima; Velumuri, Lokapavani; Ramesh, Sathyamangalam Ve

    2014-01-01

    Aim: To evaluate the prevalence and causes of low vision and blindness in an urban south Indian population. Settings and Design: Population-based cross-sectional study. Exactly 3850 subjects aged 40 years and above from Chennai city were examined at a dedicated facility in the base hospital. Materials and Methods: All subjects had a complete ophthalmic examination that included best-corrected visual acuity. Low vision and blindness were defined using World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. The influence of age, gender, literacy, and occupation was assessed using multiple logistic regression. Statistical Analysis: Chi-square test, t-test, and multivariate analysis were used. Results: Of the 4800 enumerated subjects, 3850 subjects (1710 males, 2140 females) were examined (response rate, 80.2%). The prevalence of blindness was 0.85% (95% CI 0.6–1.1%) and was positively associated with age and illiteracy. Cataract was the leading cause (57.6%) and glaucoma was the second cause (16.7%) for blindness. The prevalence of low vision was 2.9% (95% CI 2.4–3.4%) and visual impairment (blindness + low vision) was 3.8% (95% CI 3.2–4.4%). The primary causes for low vision were refractive errors (68%) and cataract (22%). Conclusions: In this urban population based study, cataract was the leading cause for blindness and refractive error was the main reason for low vision. PMID:23619490

  16. Land Cover Mapping Analysis and Urban Growth Modelling Using Remote Sensing Techniques in Greater Cairo Region—Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasmine Megahed

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study modeled the urban growth in the Greater Cairo Region (GCR, one of the fastest growing mega cities in the world, using remote sensing data and ancillary data. Three land use land cover (LULC maps (1984, 2003 and 2014 were produced from satellite images by using Support Vector Machines (SVM. Then, land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique that combines binary maps (change/no-change and post classification comparison technique. The spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using selected statistical metrics developed in the FRAGSTATS software. Major transitions to urban were modeled to predict the future scenarios for year 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM embedded in the IDRISI software. The model results, after validation, indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will be urbanized in 2025. The urban areas within a 5-km buffer around: the Great Pyramids, Islamic Cairo and Al-Baron Palace were calculated, highlighting an intense urbanization especially around the Pyramids; 28% in 2014 up to 40% in 2025. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers to adjust and develop new plans to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas and to protect the historical locations.

  17. Modeling the dynamics of urban growth using multinomial logistic regression: a case study of Jiayu County, Hubei Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Yu; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Kun; Miao, Lei; Zhang, Weiwei

    2008-10-01

    Urban growth modeling, one of the most important aspects of land use and land cover change study, has attracted substantial attention because it helps to comprehend the mechanisms of land use change thus helps relevant policies made. This study applied multinomial logistic regression to model urban growth in the Jiayu county of Hubei province, China to discover the relationship between urban growth and the driving forces of which biophysical and social-economic factors are selected as independent variables. This type of regression is similar to binary logistic regression, but it is more general because the dependent variable is not restricted to two categories, as those previous studies did. The multinomial one can simulate the process of multiple land use competition between urban land, bare land, cultivated land and orchard land. Taking the land use type of Urban as reference category, parameters could be estimated with odds ratio. A probability map is generated from the model to predict where urban growth will occur as a result of the computation.

  18. The Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Urban Growth Using Remote Sensing and Intelligent Algorithms, Case of Mahabad, Iran

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    Alì Soltani

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The simulation of urban growth can be considered as a useful way for analyzing the complex process of urban physical evolution. The aim of this study is to model and simulate the complex patterns of land use change by utilizing remote sensing and artificial intelligence techniques in the fast growing city of Mahabad, north-west of Iran which encountered with several environmental subsequences. The key subject is how to allocate optimized weight into effective parameters upon urban growth and subsequently achieving an improved simulation. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN algorithm was used to allocate the weight via an iteration approach. In this way, weight allocation was carried out by the ANN training accomplishing through time-series satellite images representing urban growth process. Cellular Automata (CA was used as the principal motor of the model and then ANN applied to find suitable scale of parameters and relations between potential factors affecting urban growth. The general accuracy of the suggested model and obtained Fuzzy Kappa Coefficient confirms achieving better results than classic CA models in simulating nonlinear urban evolution process.

  19. Association of Neck Circumference and Obesity with Blood Pressure among Adolescents in Urban and Rural Population in North Tamil Nadu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajagopalan, Archana; Balaji, Nisha

    2017-01-01

    Since a few studies exist on the association of neck circumference (NC) and obesity with blood pressure (BP) among adolescents in India, we found it highly relevant to measure the NC and body mass index (BMI) using them as indicators of upper body subcutaneous fat and obesity and relate them to BP in a rural and urban adolescent population in North Tamil Nadu. This is a community-based cross-sectional study of descriptive design where 500 students from urban and rural areas were selected, and their BMI, NC, and BP were measured using standardized instruments. Among urban and rural