Microgeographic differentiation in thermal performance curves between rural and urban populations of an aquatic insect.

Science.gov (United States)

Tüzün, Nedim; Op de Beeck, Lin; Brans, Kristien I; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby

2017-12-01

The rapidly increasing rate of urbanization has a major impact on the ecology and evolution of species. While increased temperatures are a key aspect of urbanization ("urban heat islands"), we have very limited knowledge whether this generates differentiation in thermal responses between rural and urban populations. In a common garden experiment, we compared the thermal performance curves (TPCs) for growth rate and mortality in larvae of the damselfly Coenagrion puella from three urban and three rural populations. TPCs for growth rate shifted vertically, consistent with the faster-slower theoretical model whereby the cold-adapted rural larvae grew faster than the warm-adapted urban larvae across temperatures. In line with costs of rapid growth, rural larvae showed lower survival than urban larvae across temperatures. The relatively lower temperatures hence expected shorter growing seasons in rural populations compared to the populations in the urban heat islands likely impose stronger time constraints to reach a certain developmental stage before winter, thereby selecting for faster growth rates. In addition, higher predation rates at higher temperature may have contributed to the growth rate differences between urban and rural ponds. A faster-slower differentiation in TPCs may be a widespread pattern along the urbanization gradient. The observed microgeographic differentiation in TPCs supports the view that urbanization may drive life-history evolution. Moreover, because of the urban heat island effect, urban environments have the potential to aid in developing predictions on the impact of climate change on rural populations.

Population development in Ljubljana urban region

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Dejan Rebernik

2004-12-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the main characteristic of population development and urbanisation processes in Ljubljana and Ljubljana urban region. Up to the end of the seventies fast population growth was a consequence of strong immigration from rural parts of Slovenia and the rest of Yugoslavia. In the eighties and nineties deconcentration of population within the region with intense suburbanisation and depopulation of inner city and older residential neighbourhoods were the main urbanisation processes. In the second half of the nineties the highest population growth was recorded in dispersed rural settlements in the periphery of the region. In some parts of the inner city reurbanisation and gentrification occurred.

Urban growth management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Gertrud; Alexander Sick Nielsen, Thomas; Grünfelder, Julien

2011-01-01

, and finally urban attractivity policies. Effective regional bodies are needed to deal with urban expansion and peri-urbanisation at a relevant scale; European rural and agricultural policies makes up the main ‘policy complex’ targeting the non-urban area including its land uses; while lastly leverage of urban...... urban growth and curb urban sprawl in a wider sense. Methodology The main methodology of the paper is a desk-research based review of policy options supplemented with field study and interviews in selected cased study regions. This paper consists of two parts. The first part is based on literature...... there are contradictions in the evidence presented in the literature, we believe that it may be safely said that urban growth management policies have an influence on urban growth under certain preconditions including: sufficient time for implementation and continuity of efforts; choice of appropriate policy measures...

Hispanic Population Growth and Rural Income Inequality

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Parrado, Emilio A.; Kandel, William A.

2010-01-01

We analyze the relationship between Hispanic population growth and changes in U.S. rural income inequality from 1990 through 2000. Applying comparative approaches used for urban areas we disentangle Hispanic population growth's contribution to inequality by comparing and statistically modeling changes in the family income Gini coefficient across…

Modelling the impact of sanitation, population growth and urbanization on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters—a case study for Bangladesh and India

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Vermeulen, Lucie C.; de Kraker, Jelske; Hofstra, Nynke; Kroeze, Carolien; Medema, Gertjan

2015-09-01

Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a global model by Hofstra et al (2013 Sci. Total Environ. 442 10-9) and zoom into Bangladesh and India as illustrative case studies. The model is most sensitive to changes in oocyst excretion and infection rate, and to assumptions on the share of faeces reaching the surface water for different sanitation types. We find urban centres to be hotspots of human Cryptosporidium emissions. We estimate that 53% (Bangladesh) and 91% (India) of total emissions come from urban areas. 50% of oocysts come from only 8% (Bangladesh) and 3% (India) of the country area. In the future, population growth and urbanization may further deteriorate water quality in Bangladesh and India, despite improved sanitation. Under our ‘business as usual’ (‘sanitation improvements’) scenario, oocyst emissions will increase by a factor 2.0 (1.2) for India and 2.9 (1.1) for Bangladesh between 2010 and 2050. Population growth, urbanization and sanitation development are important processes to consider for large scale water quality modelling.

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth.

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Mitchell, Logan E; Lin, John C; Bowling, David R; Pataki, Diane E; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E; Stephens, Britton B; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R; Ehleringer, James R

2018-03-20

Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah's metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine "excess" CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2 , implying a nonlinear relationship with CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

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Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; Pataki, Diane E.; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J.; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E.; Stephens, Britton B.; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R.; Ehleringer, James R.

2018-03-01

Cities are concentrated areas of CO2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO2, implying a nonlinear relationship with CO2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

Projected Regional Climate in 2025 Due to Urban Growth

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Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Messen, Dmitry

2005-01-01

By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent.

The effects of urban growth on dengue

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Marco Aurélio Pereira Horta

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Objective: To analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue in Coronel Fabriciano, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, and to associate cases to the growth of urban areas and loss of natural areas in recent years. Methods: This is a descriptive, exploratory study, with a quantitative approach. Dengue cases of 2009 were obtained from the Health Municipal Secretariat, including the suspected and confirmed cases. Shape files were obtained, containing information about the municipal boundary, boundary of the urban area, census tracts, areas with buildings and natural areas. Based on the distribution of dengue cases, the Kernel estimator was used to measure data dispersion. Results: Dengue cases reported were georeferenced in GIS (Geographic Information System environment. The landscape showed changes in the units of urban area and pasture, as an urban growth over the pasture matrix. No changes were observed in the areas of remaining forest and eucalyptus. There are cases spatially spread with a tendency to form clusters. Conclusion: Cases of dengue were observed spatially clustered in the northern region of the city, where new neighborhoods have emerged in recent years, following the population growth without proper structure of urbanization and urban planning. In addition, urban growth have reduced the margin of watercourses providing a bare soil, suitable for accumulation of trash and formation of breeding sites for mosquitoes. Efficient public policies and appropriate urban planning might reduce the impact of dengue in endemic regions. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5020/18061230.2013.p539

A study on the causal effect of urban population growth and international trade on environmental pollution: evidence from China.

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Boamah, Kofi Baah; Du, Jianguo; Boamah, Angela Jacinta; Appiah, Kingsley

2018-02-01

This study seeks to contribute to the recent literature by empirically investigating the causal effect of urban population growth and international trade on environmental pollution of China, for the period 1980-2014. The Johansen cointegration confirmed a long-run cointegration association among the utilised variables for the case of China. The direction of causality among the variables was, consequently, investigated using the recent bootstrapped Granger causality test. This bootstrapped Granger causality approach is preferred as it provides robust and accurate critical values for statistical inferences. The findings from the causality analysis revealed the existence of a bi-directional causality between import and urban population. The three most paramount variables that explain the environmental pollution in China, according to the impulse response function, are imports, urbanisation and energy consumption. Our study further established the presence of an N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution of China. Hence, our study recommends that China should adhere to stricter environmental regulations in international trade, as well as enforce policies that promote energy efficiency in the urban residential and commercial sector, in the quest to mitigate environmental pollution issues as the economy advances.

Monitoring urban growth around Rustenburg, South Africa, using ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Nale Mudau

spatial growth of Rustenburg city in South Africa from 2007 to 2012 using ... Many studies point out that population growth in urban areas is a result of ... maximum likelihood, minimum distance, spectral unmixing and neutral networks. ..... Bands (Case Study: Arid Region of Iran)', American-Eurasian Journal of Agricultural.

Nigerian population growth and its implications for economic development.

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Okpala, A O

1990-12-01

The population of Nigeria is growing at a rate of 3.75%/year indicating a doubling of the population every 22 years. Demographers estimated the population to be 91,178,000 in 1985. Even though population density is high (288 people/square mile), it is not equally distributed. It is highest in the south and southwest urban areas such as Lagos (1045 people/square mile) and lowest in the northeast (75 people/square mile). Moreover rural-urban migration is growing. A major reason for rural-urban migration is the dual nature of the economy in Nigeria. In urban areas, economic development brings about higher standards of living, but, in rural areas, a subsistence economy predominates. This coupled with rapid population growth results in small or no growth in per capita income. Only if the government were to integrate redistribution policies into complete economic development plans should it consider redistributing the population. It should stress rural development (e.g., incentives for firms to set up in rural areas). Further it should move some government offices to rural areas. The government also needs to adopt population policies encouraging the lowering of fertility levels. If it were to provide education through the secondary and prevocational education level free of charge, educated women will lower their fertility. Sex education should be included in the curriculum. Further the government must play an active role in family planning programs, especially educating rural women about family planning. It should also use the mass media to promote small family size, but it should not dictate family size. It also needs to recognize that population growth puts much pressure on the environment. For example, population growth causes soil erosion, nutrient exhaustion, rapid deforestation, and other problems which render the land unusable for agriculture.

The Rapid Urban Growth Triad: A New Conceptual Framework for Examining the Urban Transition in Developing Countries

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Kyle Farrell

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Although the urban transition is a universal event that unfolds in all countries, the determinants, patterns, and outcomes do not necessarily follow a uniform process. With the urban transition being basically completed in developed countries around the turn of the 21st century, the growth of cities today is almost entirely confined to developing countries. Still, much of our conceptual understanding of this process is derived from earlier accounts, with definitions rooted in a historical context. This has resulted in common misconceptions such as a tendency to view the growth of cities primarily as an outcome of rural to urban migration, neglecting the growing contributions of urban natural population increase and reclassification of rural areas. A tendency to treat the components of urban growth in isolation has created a rift within the urban studies discourse, preventing any real theorization of their combined impacts and the interplay among them. Applying a systems thinking approach, this paper introduces a multidisciplinary framework for conceptualizing rapid urban growth in developing countries. The framework offers explanatory power to previously neglected components of urban growth and serves as a diagnostic for examining the urban transition—ultimately revealing new policy levers for managing it in a sustainable way.

Population growth in Shanghai and its characteristics.

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Zhang, K

1985-07-01

There has been an astonishing change in Shanghai's natural population growth over the past 34 years, with a significant difference between urban and suburban areas. In 1954, the birth rate reached as high as 52.6/1000 and the death rate dropped as low as 7.1/1000, the natural growth rate being 45.4/1000. The substantial decline in the rate of natural increase in Shanghai is due to the enormous achievements of family planning programs. In 1983, the 1-child rate of Shanghai areas was 96.56%, with that in urban areas reaching 99.36% and that in rural areas 92.4%. In the last decade, with the development of industrial production, several satellite cities have been built, attracting some of the urban residents from the city proper. The 5 characteristics relating to Shanghai's population growth are: 1) population density is high and population distribution is uneven; 2) fertility declined drastically in the 1970s; 3) the proportion of young is declining and the proportion of aged is increasing; 4) the mortality has been declining steadily, resulting in a longer life expectancy; and 5) the sex ratio has evened out since the liberation when males greatly outnumbered females. These factors point out the arduous task for family planning in the coming years. The enormous population and the increasing number of young people at child bearing ages point out the necessity of carrying on the family planning program.

Progress towards the child mortality millennium development goal in urban sub-Saharan Africa: the dynamics of population growth, immunization, and access to clean water.

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Fotso, Jean-Christophe; Ezeh, Alex Chika; Madise, Nyovani Janet; Ciera, James

2007-08-28

Improvements in child survival have been very poor in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Since the 1990 s, declines in child mortality have reversed in many countries in the region, while in others, they have either slowed or stalled, making it improbable that the target of reducing child mortality by two thirds by 2015 will be reached. This paper highlights the implications of urban population growth and access to health and social services on progress in achieving MDG 4. Specifically, it examines trends in childhood mortality in SSA in relation to urban population growth, vaccination coverage and access to safe drinking water. Correlation methods are used to analyze national-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and from the United Nations. The analysis is complemented by case studies on intra-urban health differences in Kenya and Zambia. Only five of the 22 countries included in the study have recorded declines in urban child mortality that are in line with the MDG target of about 4% per year; five others have recorded an increase; and the 12 remaining countries witnessed only minimal decline. More rapid rate of urban population growth is associated with negative trend in access to safe drinking water and in vaccination coverage, and ultimately to increasing or timid declines in child mortality. There is evidence of intra-urban disparities in child health in some countries like Kenya and Zambia. Failing to appropriately target the growing sub-group of the urban poor and improve their living conditions and health status - which is an MDG target itself - may result in lack of improvement on national indicators of health. Sustained expansion of potable water supplies and vaccination coverage among the disadvantaged urban dwellers should be given priority in the efforts to achieve the child mortality MDG in SSA.

Progress towards the child mortality millennium development goal in urban sub-Saharan Africa: the dynamics of population growth, immunization, and access to clean water

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Madise Nyovani

2007-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Improvements in child survival have been very poor in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA. Since the 1990s, declines in child mortality have reversed in many countries in the region, while in others, they have either slowed or stalled, making it improbable that the target of reducing child mortality by two thirds by 2015 will be reached. This paper highlights the implications of urban population growth and access to health and social services on progress in achieving MDG 4. Specifically, it examines trends in childhood mortality in SSA in relation to urban population growth, vaccination coverage and access to safe drinking water. Methods Correlation methods are used to analyze national-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and from the United Nations. The analysis is complemented by case studies on intra-urban health differences in Kenya and Zambia. Results Only five of the 22 countries included in the study have recorded declines in urban child mortality that are in line with the MDG target of about 4% per year; five others have recorded an increase; and the 12 remaining countries witnessed only minimal decline. More rapid rate of urban population growth is associated with negative trend in access to safe drinking water and in vaccination coverage, and ultimately to increasing or timid declines in child mortality. There is evidence of intra-urban disparities in child health in some countries like Kenya and Zambia. Conclusion Failing to appropriately target the growing sub-group of the urban poor and improve their living conditions and health status – which is an MDG target itself – may result in lack of improvement on national indicators of health. Sustained expansion of potable water supplies and vaccination coverage among the disadvantaged urban dwellers should be given priority in the efforts to achieve the child mortality MDG in SSA.

Decades of urban growth and development on the Asian megadeltas

Science.gov (United States)

Small, Christopher; Sousa, Daniel; Yetman, Gregory; Elvidge, Christopher; MacManus, Kytt

2018-06-01

The current and ongoing expansion of urban areas worldwide represents the largest mass migration in human history. It is well known that the world's coastal zones are associated with large and growing concentrations of population, urban development and economic activity. Among coastal environments, deltas have long been recognized for both benefits and hazards. This is particularly true on the Asian megadeltas, where the majority of the world's deltaic populations reside. Current trends in urban migration, combined with demographic momentum suggest that the already large populations on the Asian megadeltas will continue to grow. In this study, we combine recently released gridded population density (circa 2010) with a newly developed night light change product (1992 to 2012) and a digital elevation model to quantify the spatial distribution of population and development on the nine Asian megadeltas. Bivariate distributions of population as functions of elevation and coastal proximity quantify potential exposure of deltaic populations to flood and coastal hazards. Comparison of these distributions for the Asian megadeltas show very different patterns of habitation with peak population elevations ranging from 2 to 11 m above sea level over a wide range of coastal proximities. Over all nine megadeltas, over 174 million people reside below a peak population elevation of 7 m. Changes in the spatial extent of anthropogenic night light from 1992 to 2012 show widely varying extents and changes of lighted urban development. All of the deltas except the Indus show the greatest increases in night light brightness occurring at elevations <10 m. At global and continental scales, growth of settlements of all sizes takes the form of evolving spatial networks of development. Spatial networks of lighted urban development in Asia show power law scaling properties consistent with other continents, but much higher rates of growth. The three largest networks of development in China all

Consolidating Data of Global Urban Populations: a Comparative Approach

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Blankespoor, B.; Khan, A.; Selod, H.

2017-12-01

Global data on city populations are essential for the study of urbanization, city growth and the spatial distribution of human settlements. Such data are either gathered by combining official estimates of urban populations from across countries or extracted from gridded population models that combine these estimates with geospatial data. These data sources provide varying estimates of urban populations and each approach has its advantages and limitations. In particular, official figures suffer from a lack of consistency in defining urban units (across both space and time) and often provide data for jurisdictions rather than the functionally meaningful urban area. On the other hand, gridded population models require a user-imposed definition to identify urban areas and are constrained by the modelling techniques and input data employed. To address these drawbacks, we combine these approaches by consolidating information from three established sources: (i) the Citypopulation.de (Brinkhoff, 2016); (ii) the World Urban Prospects data (United Nations, 2014); and (iii) the Global Human Settlements population grid (GHS-POP) (EC - JRC, 2015). We create urban footprints with GHS-POP and spatially merge georeferenced city points from both UN WUP and Citypopulation.de with these urban footprints to identify city points that belong to a single agglomeration. We create a consolidated dataset by combining population data from the UN WUP and Citypopulation.de. The flexible framework outlined can incorporate information from alternative inputs to identify urban clusters e.g. by using night-time lights, built-up area or alternative gridded population models (e.g WorldPop or Landscan) and the parameters employed (e.g. density thresholds for urban footprints) may also be adjusted, e.g., as a function of city-specific characteristics. Our consolidated dataset provides a wider and more accurate coverage of city populations to support studies of urbanization. We apply the data to re

Examining The Evolution Of The Khuzestan Urban Population Using The Urban Primacy Indexes

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Mokhtar Karami

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Examining the status of a city in the surrounding metropolitan area network not only helpful for Specialists to understand the ups and downs of city life and surrounding it but also can set the groundwork for hierarchical relationships settlements and planners for discipline the urban network is studied. Research to study the evolution of the urban population in Khuzestan province was conducted during the statistical period 1957-2012. The method is a descriptive and analytical study. To collect the data in addition the study of literature the Facts Sheet the statistical yearbooks and census of population and housing censuses in all courses has been used. Then to enter data and analysis it the Excel and Minitab software was used. Models used in this study are Ginsberg index Urban Primacy Index Two City Index Four City Index Mehtas Four City Index Moomav and Alwosabi. The results show that is balance between the parameters of the Urban Primacy Indexes in Khuzestan province since 1957 to 1977. The process of balancing continue and is destroy until the beginning of the Imposed war and the depletion of the population of cities and in 1987 the Urban Primacy Index reached its highest level and due to the problems of the war in Ahvaz it earns the highest the Urban Primacy Index. Since 1987 the Urban Primacy Index reduced and their balancing process continues until 2012 that this balancing process due to natural population growth since after 1997.

Forecasting urban growth across the United States-Mexico border

Science.gov (United States)

Norman, L.M.; Feller, M.; Phillip, Guertin D.

2009-01-01

The sister-city area of Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, is known collectively as Ambos (both) Nogales. This area was historically one city and was administratively divided by the Gadsden Purchase in 1853. These arid-lands have limited and sensitive natural resources. Environmental planning can support sustainable development to accommodate the predicted influx of population. The objective of this research is to quantify the amount of predicted urban growth for the Ambos Nogales watershed to support future planning for sustainable development. Two modeling regimes are explored. Our goal is to identify possible growth patterns associated with the twin-city area as a whole and with the two cities modeled as separate entities. We analyzed the cross-border watershed using regression analysis from satellite images from 1975, 1983, 1996, and 2002 and created urban area classifications. We used these classifications as input to the urban growth model, SLEUTH, to simulate likely patterns of development and define projected conversion probabilities. Model results indicate that the two cities are undergoing very different patterns of change and identify locations of expected growth based on historical development. Growth in Nogales, Arizona is stagnant while the urban area in Nogales, Sonora is exploding. This paper demonstrates an application that portrays how future binational urban growth could develop and affect the environment. This research also provides locations of potential growth for use in city planning.

Growth of rural population in Punjab, 1971-81.

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Gill, M S

1987-01-01

Except for the decade 1941-1951, in which Punjab's population declined because of a huge exchange of population between India and Pakistan and a large loss of life, the decade 1971-1981 was the 1st decade since 1911 to experience a deceleration in the growth rate of the rural population of Punjab, India. The deceleration was due to out-migration to urban areas. The scheduled caste population increased 28.37% between 1971 and 1981, while the nonscheduled caste population increased by only 13.32%, which was considerably below the rate of natural increase. Nonscheduled castes had experienced substantial out-migration because of 1) improved transport and communication facilities which enabled them to move to urban centers; 2) mechanization of main farming operations and easy availability of migrant laborers which lessened the need for family labor; 3) the rise of a relatively mobile younger generation with a high literacy rate; 4) rapidly decreasing land holdings which strengthened the push factor in the countryside; and 5) rising aspirations, especially among the younger generation. In 1981, Sikhs constituted 71.3% of the rural population in Punjab, followed by Hindus (26.51%), Christians (1.25%), and Muslims (.89%). From 1971-1981, Muslims experienced the greatest increase (49.29%). Sikhs grew by 20.74% and Hindus by 9.02%. The Sikhs high growth rate was due to 1) a new technique for counting religious affiliation in which all members of a household are considered the same religion as the head of household and 2) conversion of Hindus to Sikhism. Hindus had a low growth rate because 1) the new method of counting religious affiliation and 2) rural-urban migration. The area with the lowest population increase resulted from industrialists and other nonagriculturists buying farmland, causing the agriculturists to move away to less desirable land. Conclusions are 1) the sharp rural-urban division along religious lines should be lessened, 2) Sikhs' lag in urbanization and

Urban growth patterns in major Southeast Asian cities: Toward exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Mandapaka, Pradeep; Kamarajugedda, Shankar A.; Lo, Edmond Y. M.

2017-04-01

Southeast Asia (SEA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, with urban population percentage increasing from 32% in 1990 to 48% in 2015. It is projected that by the year 2040, urban regions in SEA account for 60% of its total population. The region is home to 600 million people, with many densely populated cities, including megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila. The region has more than 20,000 islands, and many cities lie on coastal low-lands and floodplains. These geographical characteristics together with the increasing population, infrastructure growth, and changing climate makes the region highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This study assessed urban growth dynamics in major (defined as population exceeding 1 million) SEA cities using remotely sensed night-time lights (NTL) data. A recently proposed brightness gradient approach was applied on 21 years (1992-2012) of NTL annual composites to derive core-urban (CU) and peri-urban (PU) regions within each city. The study also assessed the sensitivity of above extracted urban categories to different NTL thresholds. The temporal trends in CU and PU regions were quantified, and compared with trends in socio-economic indicators. The spatial expansion of CU and PU regions were found to depend on geographical constraints and socio-economic factors. Quantification of urban growth spatial-temporal patterns, as conducted here contributes towards the understanding of exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructures to natural hazards, as well as the evolving trends for assessment under projected urbanization conditions. This will underpin better risk assessment efforts for present and future planning.

Impact of Urban Growth and Urbanization on the Environmental Degradation of Lakes in Hyderabad City, India

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Nandan, M. J.; Sen, M. K.; Harini, P.; Sekhar, B. M.; Balaji, T.

2013-12-01

Lakes are a vital part of urban ecosystems which perform important ecological and environmental functions to safeguard local climate, groundwater and habitat. The incessant population growth coupled with low urban planning is causing severe damage to urban ecosystems throughout the world. Hyderabad is one of the largest growing metropolitan cities of India covering an area of 65000 ha situated on the banks of Musi River in the northern part of the Deccan Plateau. The city had a population of 1.25 million in 1961 which increased to 6.8 million in 2011 with a metropolitan population of 7.75 million, making it India's fourth most populous city and sixth most populous urban agglomeration. Hyderabad is popularly known as 'City of Lakes' which occupies the top position in India in terms of Urban Lakes. In 20th century, the number of lakes were around 925 which are now reduced to 521 and most of these lakes are facing extinction. The water spread area of these lakes has been considerably reduced due to steady urban growth and the carrying capacity and ecological status of these urban lakes are in real danger. Many of these lakes have shrunk in size while the waters of several lakes got polluted with the discharge of untreated domestic and industrial effluents. Taking into consideration the environmental degradation of urban lakes, an attempt was made to study the current status, loss of water bodies and water spread using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Time-series satellite images of MSS, IRS and RESOURCESAT and Survey of India maps of 1:50,000 and 1:25,000 were used for this study. Analysis of these together with other data sets was accomplished through integrated use of ERDAS Imagine Arc view and ArcGIS software packages. It is estimated that there were 925 lakes in 1982 in erstwhile Hyderabad Urban Development Authority (HUDA) area which came down to 521 in 2012. A total number of 404 lakes disappeared during the last 30 years period. Consequently the water spread

[African population growth: status and prospects].

Science.gov (United States)

Tabutin, D

1991-01-01

Despite great improvements over the past several years, the quality of demographic data in Africa is still a problem, and Africa remains the least well known continent. Population growth is extremely rapid, with all countries growing at annual rates of over 3%. The natural increase rate even shows some signs of increasing slightly in the next decade or so. Africa's population was estimated at 220 million in 1950, 650 million at present, and is projected at 1.5 billion by 2025. Africans represented 9% of the world population in 1960, but will increase to 19% around 2025. The rapid population growth is the result of declining mortality since the 1950s unmatched by changes in fertility. There are significant socioeconomic and rural-urban mortality differentials in Africa, but as yet only highly educated urbanites have measurably reduced their family size. 2 consequences of this rapid growth are the youth of the population, with almost 50% under 20 years, and its high density in some areas. By 2025, 18 countries will have densities of over 100 persons per sq km. Almost everywhere in Africa, family sizes are at least 6 children/woman. 3 factors explaining this high level of fertility are the earliness and universality of marriage, rates of contraceptive usage of only 4-10% in most countries, and declining durations of breast feeding and sexual abstinence, which traditionally served as brakes on fertility. As a rule, women marry young and remain married until the end of their reproductive years. Divorce and widowhood are common, but remarriage is usually rapid if the woman is still of reproductive age. Life expectancy at birth in sub-Saharan Africa has increased from some 36 years around 1950 to 50 years at present. Progress in control of mortality, and especially infant mortality, has been slower than expected, and Africa still has by far the lowest life expectancy of any major region. Regional, rural-urban, and socioeconomic mortality differentials are considerable and

Driving factors of urban land growth in Guangzhou and its implications for sustainable development

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Xuezhu; Li, Shaoying; Wang, Xuetong; Xue, Xiaolong

2018-04-01

Since 2000, China's urban land has expanded at a dramatic speed because of the country's rapid urbanization. The country has been experiencing unbalanced development between rural and urban areas, causing serious challenges such as agricultural security and land resources waste. Effectively evaluating the driving factors of urban land growth is essential for improving efficient land use management and sustainable urban development. This study established a principal component regression model based on eight indicators to identify their influences on urban land growth in Guangzhou. The results provided a grouping analysis of the driving factors, and found that economic growth, urban population, and transportation development are the driving forces of urban land growth of Guangzhou, while the tertiary industry has an opposite effect. The findings led to further suggestions and recommendations for urban sustainable development. Hence, local governments should design relevant policies for achieving the rational development of urban land use and strategic planning on urban sustainable development.

Assessment of ecosystem services provided by urban trees: public lands within the Urban Growth Boundary of Corvallis, OR

Science.gov (United States)

Public lands within the Urban Growth Boundary of Corvallis, Oregon contain a diverse population of about 440,000 trees that include over 300 varieties and have an estimated tree cover of 31%. While often unrecognized, urban trees provide a variety of “ecosystem services” or dire...

Population Growth and Its Expression in Spatial Built-up Patterns: The Sana’a, Yemen Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gunter Zeug

2010-04-01

Full Text Available In light of rapid global urbanisation, monitoring and mapping of urban and population growth is of great importance. Population growth in Sana’a was investigated for this reason. The capital of the Republic of Yemen is a rapidly growing middle sized city where the population doubles almost every ten years. Satellite data from four different sensors were used to explore urban growth in Sana’a between 1989 and 2007, assisted by topographic maps and cadastral vector data. The analysis was conducted by delineating the built-up areas from the various optical satellite data, applying a fuzzy-rule-based composition of anisotropic textural measures and interactive thresholding. The resulting datasets were used to analyse urban growth and changes in built-up density per district, qualitatively as well as quantitatively, using a geographic information system. The built-up area increased by 87 % between 1989 and 2007. Built-up density has increased in all areas, but particularly in the northern and southern suburban districts, also reflecting the natural barrier of surrounding mountain ranges. Based on long-term population figures, geometric population growth was assumed. This hypothesis was used together with census data for 1994 and 2004 to estimate population figures for 1989 and 2007, resulting in overall growth of about 240%. By joining population figures to district boundaries, the spatial patterns of population distribution and growth were examined. Further, urban built-up growth and population changes over time were brought into relation in order to investigate changes in population density per built-up area. Population densities increased in all districts, with the greatest density change in the peripheral areas towards the North. The results reflect the pressure on the city’s infrastructure and natural resources and could contribute to sustainable urban planning in the city of Sana’a.

Regional assessment of urban impacts on landcover and open space finds a smart urban growth policy performs little better than business as usual.

Science.gov (United States)

Thorne, James H; Santos, Maria J; Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H

2013-01-01

Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region's ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km² in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km² (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km² (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km² of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km² to 2239 km² (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km², under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas.

The population conundrums and some implications for urban development in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petrić Jasna

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Population development may reveal either a potential or constraint on functional labour markets and spatial development of the territory in concern. The first results of the 2011 Census in Serbia depict a rather bleak demographic situation, which is only the continuation of population trends from the late 20th and beginning of the 21st century, substantially fuelled by dynamic political and socioeconomic processes featuring Serbia in the past few decades. The focus is on demographic changes in relation to three correlated aspects: 1 intensive ageing process; 2 depopulation and negative natural growth; and 3 migratory movements - population exodus. This paper addresses in particular the spatial consequences and institutional aspects of recent demographic changes and their reflection on urban areas in Serbia. In the past, population movements from rural to urban areas used to colour much of the migratory balance map of the country, however this situation changed due to exhaustion of the ‘traditional’ demographic reservoirs. Still, urban primacy of the capital city Belgrade has been even intensified with the recent demographic movements, or more precisely, a tissue of the two largest cities in relative proximity - Belgrade and Novi Sad is hypertrophied in a demographic sense. Other urban settlements in Serbia, especially the smaller towns, which are numerous but demographically shrinking, have not been empowered enough to substantiate better links with smaller and larger settlements within urban-rural interface, and their role has been challenged in that respect. Demographic changes, which affect urban growth or decline, are largely to do with border effects, economic and social gaps, educational opportunities, and search of certain ‘urban lifestyles’. The latter is particularly stressed regarding the process of ‘second demographic transition’ which encompassed Serbia and is manifested by changes in the family domain, viz. partnership

Planning instruments to control urban growth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

2010-01-01

It is challenging to plan and control urban development in peri-urban areas. But if no planning is done, the result will often be unsustainable, including widespread, dispersed and uncoordinated urban growth. Spatial planning based on zoning remains the most important planning instrument and its...... success depend on regional coordination. Incentive based instruments may contrbute to growth management, but only few examples are available and their effects on urban growth patterns yet to be seen....

Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

Science.gov (United States)

1983-01-01

The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with

Population growth, urban expansion, and private forestry in western Oregon.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffrey D. Kline; David L. Azuma; Ralph J. Alig

2004-01-01

Private forestlands in the United States face increasing pressures from growing populations, resulting in greater numbers of people living in closer proximity to forests. What often is called the "wildland/urban interface" is characterized by expansion of residential and other developed land uses onto forested landscapes in a manner that threatens forestlands...

Policy Tools for Addressing Urban Sprawl: Urban Growth Boundaries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric J. STRAUSS

2006-02-01

Full Text Available The analysis herein explores the topic of urban growth boundaries and how local governments in Romania could use this growth management tool in order to address unplanned, haphazard growth that is taking place at the fringe of cities and in the villages/ farming communities that surround them. The structure of the paper is threefold. The first section focuses on a brief socio-economic profile of Cluj-Napoca, Romania. The aim is to provide a better context and facilitate the reader’s understanding of the nature of urban growth and suburbanization in Romania. Cluj-Napoca is currently in the process of adopting a master plan for the city and specific policy recommendations on how to address urban sprawl may prove useful. The authors hope to stir a debate among scholars, practitioners, and residents with regard to how the city of Cluj will further develop and whether future development should occur in the same manner it occurred during the last 10 years. The second section of the paper is meant to introduce the concepts of growth management and urban growth boundaries. The former is described in terms of a planning philosophy while the latter is portrayed as a specific policy tool that growth management advocates suggest it could be used in order to fight sprawl. A case study on urban growth boundaries is presented in order to underscore specific advantages and disadvantages associated with establishing a growth boundary. The last section comprises several preliminary policy recommendations for the city of Cluj-Napoca. Because of the incomplete data the authors currently have on critical issues some of the recommendations are general in scope and need to be further detailed.

Growth in an English population from the Industrial Revolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Mays, S; Brickley, M; Ives, R

2008-05-01

The rapid urbanization of the Industrial Revolution in 18th-19th century England presented new health challenges. Our aim is to investigate using English skeletal remains whether the living conditions for an urban working class group in the Industrial Revolution negatively impacted upon their skeletal growth compared with a population from a rural agrarian parish. The Industrial Revolution skeletal material is from St Martin's Churchyard, Birmingham (SMB), West Midlands. It dates primarily from the first half of the nineteenth century when Birmingham was a major manufacturing center. The rural group is from Wharram Percy (WP), North Yorkshire, and dates from 10th-19th century AD. The methodology involves plotting diaphyseal bone lengths versus dental age for subadults. No overall difference was found between the two populations in bone length-for-age among the 2- to 18-year cohort. However the younger parts of the SMB cohort were smaller than at WP; the opposite was true of the older parts of the cohort. Growth rate, as inferred from crosssectional data, appeared greater at SMB than at WP. The only result consistent with expectations is the larger bone dimensions in young children from WP, but this likely reflects prolonged breastfeeding at WP not differences in urban and rural environments. That the deleterious health effects that we know accompanied the major transition in human society from a rural agrarian to an urban industrialized living environment should be little manifest in skeletal endochondral growth data is discouraging for those who would use such methodology to monitor health in earlier populations. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

An investigation of the role of China's urban population on coal consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michieka, Nyakundi M.; Fletcher, Jerald J.

2012-01-01

This paper investigates the causal relationship between urban population, real GDP, electricity production and coal consumption in China for the period 1971–2009. Using a vector autoregression framework and a modified version of the Granger (1969) causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (J. Econ. 66 (1995) 225), the results suggest that there is causality running from GDP to coal consumption. The variance decomposition analysis report that urban population and coal affect electricity production variability over the forecast period. We also find that increasing urban population may negatively affect China's GDP over time. Policy measures aimed at influencing GDP could ultimately affect coal consumption. - Highlights: ► We find Granger Causality running from GDP to coal consumption. ► China can mitigate the adverse environmental effects of coal by altering GDP path. ► We find Granger Causality running from urbanization to electricity production. ► China needs to find other sources of energy to cater for growing electricity demand. ► Increasing urban population may slow economic growth due to overcrowding in cities.

Seasonal associations with urban light pollution for nocturnally migrating bird populations.

Science.gov (United States)

La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel; Buler, Jeffrey J; Farnsworth, Andrew; Cabrera-Cruz, Sergio A

2017-11-01

The spatial extent and intensity of artificial light at night (ALAN) has increased worldwide through the growth of urban environments. There is evidence that nocturnally migrating birds are attracted to ALAN, and there is evidence that nocturnally migrating bird populations are more likely to occur in urban areas during migration, especially in the autumn. Here, we test if urban sources of ALAN are responsible, at least in part, for these observed urban associations. We use weekly estimates of diurnal occurrence and relative abundance for 40 nocturnally migrating bird species that breed in forested environments in North America to assess how associations with distance to urban areas and ALAN are defined across the annual cycle. Migratory bird populations presented stronger than expected associations with shorter distances to urban areas during migration, and stronger than expected association with higher levels of ALAN outside and especially within urban areas during migration. These patterns were more pronounced during autumn migration, especially within urban areas. Outside of the two migration periods, migratory bird populations presented stronger than expected associations with longer distances to urban areas, especially during the nonbreeding season, and weaker than expected associations with the highest levels of ALAN outside and especially within urban areas. These findings suggest that ALAN is associated with higher levels of diurnal abundance along the boundaries and within the interior of urban areas during migration, especially in the autumn when juveniles are undertaking their first migration journey. These findings support the conclusion that urban sources of ALAN can broadly effect migratory behavior, emphasizing the need to better understand the implications of ALAN for migratory bird populations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Is Urban Economic Growth Inclusive in India?

OpenAIRE

Tripathi, Sabyasachi

2013-01-01

This paper measures the overall inclusive growth of a city by considering changing trends in the key economic variables based on ‘Borda ranking’ and establishes a relationship between city economic growth and overall city inclusive growth. By using data of 52 large cities in India, this paper finds that higher urban economic growth is associated with an increase in urban inequality, a reduction in urban poverty, and a lower level of overall inclusive growth of a city.

Urban vegetation and thermal patterns following city growth in different socio-economic contexts

Science.gov (United States)

Dronova, I.; Clinton, N.; Yang, J.; Radke, J.; Marx, S. S.; Gong, P.

2015-12-01

Urban expansion accompanied by losses of vegetated spaces and their ecological services raises significant concerns about the future of humans in metropolitan "habitats". Despite recent growth of urban studies globally, it is still not well understood how environmental effects of urbanization vary with the rate and socioeconomic context of development. Our study hypothesized that with urban development, spatial patterns of surface thermal properties and green plant cover would shift towards higher occurrence of relatively warmer and less vegetated spaces such as built-up areas, followed by losses of greener and cooler areas such as urban forests, and that these shifts would be more pronounced with higher rate of economic and/or population growth. To test these ideas, we compared 1992-2011 changes in remotely sensed patterns of green vegetation and surface temperature in three example cities that experienced peripheral growth under contrasting socio-economic context - Dallas, TX, USA, Beijing, China and Kyiv, Ukraine. To assess their transformation, we proposed a metric of thermal-vegetation angle (TVA) estimated from per-pixel proxies of vegetation greenness and surface temperature from Landsat satellite data and examined changes in TVA distributions within each city's core and two decadal zones of peripheral sprawl delineated from nighttime satellite data. We found that higher economic and population growth were coupled with more pronounced changes in TVA distributions, and more urbanized zones often exhibited higher frequencies of warmer, less green than average TVA values with novel patterns such as "cooler" clusters of building shadows. Although greener and cooler spaces generally diminished with development, they remained relatively prevalent in low-density residential areas of Dallas and peripheral zones of Kyiv with exurban subsistence farming. Overall, results indicate that the effects of modified green space and thermal patterns within growing cities

Projected Impact of Urban Growth on Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Amato, Federico; Murgante, Beniamino; Martellozzo, Federico

2017-04-01

Human activities on land use such as intensive agricultural techniques and urbanization are generating a number of social and economic benefit for contemporary society. Besides, these phenomena are one of the most significant causes of Land Degradation. Firstly, intensive agriculture is on the one hand creating an advantage in the short-period in terms of food production, while on the other is producing serious long-period problems in terms of loss of ecosystem services, including some important for agriculture itself. Secondly, the rapid growth of urban areas in recent decades is generating deep environmental issues. The World Urbanization Prospect by the United Nations (UN) shows that more than half of the world's population today (54%) lives in urban areas. This figure was only 30% in 1950, and estimates are that it will rise to 66% by 2050. Urban growth is responsible for the increase of air pollution, waste production, energy consumption, and land take. Moreover, the expansion of urban areas is making the problem of urban heat islands more relevant, and studies are proving how land cover changes are among the main factors that affect local microclimates. Consequently, territorial planning will play an important role in the fight to mitigate the effects of climate change, as land cover has a significant impact on the energy exchanges between the earth and the atmosphere. This study couples urban growth simulation models based on cellular automata to multiple linear regression techniques that are used to formulate equations for predicting the effects of simulated urban development on soil surface temperature. The proposed methodology is applied to the case study of the Italian national territory, considering various alternative scenarios of land use changes and of their impact on local surface temperatures. The results show that the areas with the greatest urban pressure might be subject to significant climatic changes due to the increased impact of urban heat

[Urban and population development of the city of Puebla and its metropolitan area].

Science.gov (United States)

Barbosa Prieto, A

1991-12-01

Metropolitanization has been considered an important problem of regional development in developing countries. Attitudes toward the metropolis have been ambivalent in Latin America. On the 1 hand the metropolis is viewed as an obstacle to development that absorbs resources from the zone of influence and incurs high social costs of urbanization, but on the hand it is also viewed as a form of achieving levels of economic efficiency comparable to those of developed countries. Metropolitan areas should not be viewed as isolated, but rather as important points of demographic and manpower attraction, poles of economic growth and technological and cultural innovation. "Urban areas" and "metropolitan zones" are distinct ways of defining and delimiting urban phenomena. Although there is no consensus as to the exact definitions of these 2 urban units, it is generally accepted that the urban area is the city itself as well as the contiguous built up area reaching in all directions to the onset of nonurban land uses such as forests territorial extension that includes the politico-administrative units with urban characteristics such as work places and residences for nonagricultural workers, and that maintain constant and intense socioeconomic interrelations with the central city. The process of urban planning in the metropolitan zone of Puebla, Mexico, began in institutional form in 1980 with master plans for the population centers of Puebla, Amozoc, San Andres and San Pedro Cholula, and Zacatelco in the state of Tlaxcala. In 1987., an attempt was made by the governments of the states of Puebla and Tlaxcala to develop a plan for the metropolitan zone as a single unit. Population growth was greater within the city of Puebla than in the metropolitan zone from 1960-80, but after 1980 growth in the outlying areas exceeded that in the center city. The population density of the city of Puebla declined from 160/hectare in 1950 to 76/hectare in 1990, the result of progressive dispersion

Modelling the impact of sanitation, population growth and urbanization on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters—a case study for Bangladesh and India

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vermeulen, L.C.; Kraker, Dummy; Hofstra, N.; Kroeze, C.; Medema, G.J.

2015-01-01

Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a

Modelling the impact of sanitation, population growth and urbanization on human emissions of cryptosporidium to surface waters : A case study for Bangladesh and India

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vermeulen, L.C.; Kraker, J.; Hofstra, N.; Kroeze, C.; Medema, G.

2015-01-01

Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a

Remote sensing based approach for monitoring urban growth in Mexico city, Mexico: A case study

Science.gov (United States)

Obade, Vincent

The world is experiencing a rapid rate of urban expansion, largely contributed by the population growth. Other factors supporting urban growth include the improved efficiency in the transportation sector and increasing dependence on cars as a means of transport. The problems attributed to the urban growth include: depletion of energy resources, water and air pollution; loss of landscapes and wildlife, loss of agricultural land, inadequate social security and lack of employment or underemployment. Aerial photography is one of the popular techniques for analyzing, planning and minimizing urbanization related problems. However, with the advances in space technology, satellite remote sensing is increasingly being utilized in the analysis and planning of the urban environment. This article outlines the strengths and limitations of potential remote sensing techniques for monitoring urban growth. The selected methods include: Principal component analysis, Maximum likelihood classification and "decision tree". The results indicate that the "classification tree" approach is the most promising for monitoring urban change, given the improved accuracy and smooth transition between the various land cover classes

Juvenile coho salmon growth and health in streams across an urbanization gradient

Science.gov (United States)

Spanjer, Andrew R.; Moran, Patrick W.; Larsen, Kimberly; Wetzel, Lisa; Hansen, Adam G.; Beauchamp, David A.

2018-01-01

Expanding human population and urbanization alters freshwater systems through structural changes to habitat, temperature effects from increased runoff and reduced canopy cover, altered flows, and increased toxicants. Current stream assessments stop short of measuring health or condition of species utilizing these freshwater habitats and fail to link specific stressors mechanistically to the health of organisms in the stream. Juvenile fish growth integrates both external and internal conditions providing a useful indicator of habitat quality and ecosystem health. Thus, there is a need to account for ecological and environmental influences on fish growth accurately. Bioenergetics models can simulate changes in growth and consumption in response to environmental conditions and food availability to account for interactions between an organism's environmental experience and utilization of available resources. The bioenergetics approach accounts for how thermal regime, food supply, and food quality affect fish growth. This study used a bioenergetics modeling approach to evaluate the environmental factors influencing juvenile coho salmon growth among ten Pacific Northwest streams spanning an urban gradient. Urban streams tended to be warmer, have earlier emergence dates and stronger early season growth. However, fish in urban streams experienced increased stress through lower growth efficiencies, especially later in the summer as temperatures warmed, with as much as a 16.6% reduction when compared to fish from other streams. Bioenergetics modeling successfully characterized salmonid growth in small perennial streams as part of a more extensive monitoring program and provides a powerful assessment tool for characterizing mixed life-stage specific responses in urban streams.

Poverty, population growth, and youth violence in DRC's cities ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2016-04-28

Apr 28, 2016 ... Poverty, population growth, and youth violence in DRC's cities ... Learn more about what drives DRC's urban violence and how it is linked to poverty ... ​Youth violence and the shift of land disputes from rural communities into ...

[Urban and rural population of the state of Sao Paulo: results of the census of 1980].

Science.gov (United States)

Saad, P M

1981-01-01

The accelerated urban growth of Sao Paulo between 1940-70 has continued during the period 1970-80, according to the 1980 censes. During 1970-80 the urban population increased 55.47%, while the rural population decreased 18.67%, bringing the percentage of the urban population to 88.6% of the total population of the state. This phenomenon has been common to all the 11 administrative regions of the state. The highest percentage of the urban population in 1980 was in the region of Greater Sao Paulo, followed by Litoral and Vale do Paraiba. The largest increases in urban population were in the regions of Sorocaba, Campinas, and Vale do Paraiba, while the highest decreases in rural population were in the regions of Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Aracatuba, Presidente Prudente, and Marilia. The document presents detailed data for each of the 11 administrative regions of the state, and for each municipality within a region.

Trends in population growth in China's towns during the eighties, and town population in-migration and its decisive factors: a historic convergence of two types of demographic change.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, J

1990-01-01

Relying on socioeconomic and population statistics, as well as population censuses, the author examines the growth of China's towns in the 1980s due to in-migration, and considers the economic causes and impact of the growth of towns. Prior to 1984, China's urbanization had been slow and uneven. But in the 4 years from 1984-87, China's urban population grew 3.8 times faster than the period before 1984. and unlike the previous pattern of urbanization, slightly over half of the urban growth occurred in small cities and towns. The rapid growth of towns was due to an unprecedented level of in-migration into towns from agricultural villages. This population transformed itself into a nonagricultural population. The author attributes the increase in urbanization and its changing patterns to a historic convergence: the shift in industry for the agricultural population and a regional shift for the village population--realized through a form of village-to-town population migration. The author goes on to examine the development of small-town enterprises, facilitated after the rural reform of 1984. The author notes that since that year, small-town industries have flourished, a development that has had a number of beneficial effects on both the provincial areas and the nation as a whole. Finally, the author considers the factors that have fueled town population in-migration: 1) in most provinces, higher incomes in towns have attracted people from the villages; and 2) in provinces with little discrepancy in income between town and village, a combination of the regions' relative isolation and government policy preventing migration to cities have spurred the growth of towns.

Population health and urban form : a review of the literature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-11-01

A review examining the links between public health and living spaces was presented. The aim of the review was to explore whether different urban forms created communities that encouraged healthy living and resulted in a healthier population as well as to suggest avenues and approaches for further research of the subject in British Columbia. The historical links between public health and community planning were examined. A conceptual model of the linkages of urban form and population health was developed and used to identify ways in which urban form and population health are linked. Areas of concern include vehicle emissions, water quality and heat build-up as well as noise pollution. Issues concerning health inequalities related to income and access to health services were examined, as well as the role that urban form plays as a barrier to physical activity. Findings indicated that there is a strong correlation between urban form and health. Lower density urban forms that require a vehicle generated more miles travelled by car with more traffic crashes and higher risks to pedestrians and cyclists. A growing body of evidence has indicated that community contacts are scarcer in low density areas. In addition, low density dwellers seemed to have higher stress levels. Car dependent lifestyles had negative impacts on children's play, growth and development. Urban forms which promoted a range of housing options in terms of affordability, tenure and type allowed people to remain within their neighbourhoods. Disadvantaged groups fared better in denser areas where there were more public facilities. 62 refs. 1 tab., 2 figs

Modeling urban growth in Kigali city Rwanda

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nduwayezu, G.; Sliuzas, R.V.; Kuffer, M.

2017-01-01

The uncontrolled urban growth is the key characteristics in most cities in less developed countries. However, having a good understanding of the key drivers of the city's growth dynamism has proven to be a key instrument to manage urban growth. This paper investigates the main determinants of Kigali

Four decades urban growth and land use change in Samara Russia through remote sensing and GIS techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Boori, Mukesh Singh; Choudhary, Komal; Kupriyanov, Alexander; Kovelskiy, Viktor

2015-12-01

This study illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban growth and land use changes in Samara city, Russia from 1975 to 2015. Landsat satellite imageries of five different time periods from 1975 to 2015 were acquired and quantify the changes with the help of ArcGIS 10.1 Software. By applying classification methods to the satellite images four main types of land use were extracted: water, built-up, forest and grassland. Then, the area coverage for all the land use types at different points in time were measured and coupled with population data. The results demonstrate that, over the entire study period, population was increased from 1146 thousand people to 1244 thousand from 1975 to 1990 but later on first reduce and then increase again, now 1173 thousand population. Built-up area is also change according to population. The present study revealed an increase in built-up by 37.01% from 1975 to 1995, than reduce -88.83% till 2005 and an increase by 39.16% from 2005 to 2015, along with the increase in population, migration from rural areas owing to the economic growth and technological advantages associated with urbanization. Information on urban growth, land use and land cover change study is very useful to local government and urban planners for the betterment of future plans to sustainable development of the city.

The Impact of Urban Growth and Climate Change on Heat Stress in an Australian City

Science.gov (United States)

Chapman, S.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Thatcher, M. J.; Salazar, A.; Watson, J. R.

2017-12-01

Over half of the world's population lives in urban areas. Most people will therefore be exposed to climate change in an urban environment. One of the climate risks facing urban residents is heat stress, which can lead to illness and death. Urban residents are at increased risk of heat stress due to the urban heat island effect. The urban heat island is a modification of the urban environment and increases temperatures on average by 2°C, though the increase can be much higher, up to 8°C when wind speeds and cloud cover are low. The urban heat island is also expected to increase in the future due to urban growth and intensification, further exacerbating urban heat stress. Climate change alters the urban heat island due to changes in weather (wind speed and cloudiness) and evapotranspiration. Future urban heat stress will therefore be affected by urban growth and climate change. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of urban growth and climate change on the urban heat island and heat stress in Brisbane, Australia. We used CCAM, the conformal cubic atmospheric model developed by the CSIRO, to examine temperatures in Brisbane using scenarios of urban growth and climate change. We downscaled the urban climate using CCAM, based on bias corrected Sea Surface Temperatures from the ACCESS1.0 projection of future climate. We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the periods 1990 - 2000, 2049 - 2060 and 2089 - 2090 with current land use and an urban growth scenario. The present day climatology was verified using weather station data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We compared the urban heat island of the present day with the urban heat island with climate change to determine if climate change altered the heat island. We also calculated heat stress using wet-bulb globe temperature and apparent temperature for the climate change and base case scenarios. We found the urban growth scenario increased present day temperatures by 0.5°C in the

Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

2017-01-01

Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

A study of dynamic econometric relationship between urbanization and service industries growth in china

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Congjun Cheng

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The paper is going to analyze that there are dynamic quantitative relationships between Chinese urbanization and service industry.Design/methodology/approach: According to the index number of value-added of service industry and town population/ total population ratio during the year of 1978 to 2012 in China, the paper is designed with models which are analyzed by ADF test, co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test, finally get the conclusion.Findings: The paper achieves the two conclusions, one is that urbanization is the important power of service industry’s growth; the other is that the level of urbanization improves the level of service industry recently.Originality/value: Chinese urbanization and service industry have close relationship, and they also have dynamic changes. The paper studies their dynamic changes through collecting a lot of data from the year 1978 to 2010 and developing models to make quantitative analysis, for example, tables and quotations in the paper are the best proof. At last, the paper also puts forward some suggestions after get the conclusion that Chinese urbanization is the motive power to the growth of service industry.

[Urbanization mechanisms in bird species: population systems transformations or adaptations at the individual level?].

Science.gov (United States)

Fridman, V S; Eremkin, G S; Zakharova-Kubareva, N Iu

2008-01-01

The present research deals with urbanization of wild bird and mammal species. Forms and mechanisms of population steadiness in the urban landscape have been examined. The urbanization process turned out to be a directed change of the population system forming de novo in the urbolandscape leading to a sustainable organization peculiar for the particular environment. The population organization of different types in urbolandscape is found to provide its stability under conditions of directed and fast changes accompanied with instability and heterogenous structure of habitats. It is shown that the same type of population organization meets the corresponding demands among different species settling in the urban environment. Its features are "openness" and "flowage" of the groups, far order of settlement levels and other units of population system, constant movements of the individuals between the groups as a respond to the signals of urboenvironment significant changes. The "urban" variant of the population system organization turns out to be opposite to that of the same species in the non-urban habitats. After formation of the urban types by the species and successful developing of the town, the urban population becomes separated from the maternal local population and begins to exist independently in the urban landscape. The variety of adaptation aberrations in ecology, behavior, and mode of life of urban birds is the population system stability function in the urban landscape and is not a results of individual selection. It is shown that the urbanization process of the species goes firstly on the population level being the system structure transformation developed by the species towards the most stable state in the town (city) territory. Only after the appearance of stable urban population, the urban individuals show the rapid growth of different changes in ecology, behavior, mode of life that was traditionally described by naturalists as species adaptation to the

Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

Science.gov (United States)

Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

2016-12-01

Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than

The potential impact of urban growth simulation on the long-term planning of our cities

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Waldeck, L

2012-10-01

Full Text Available of urban growth simulation on the long-term planning of our cities 4th Biennial Conference Presented by: Dr Louis Waldeck Date: 10 October 2012 Slide 2 of 17 Why Urban Growth Simulation? ? Reduced carbon footprint ? Reduce resource consumption... of the population concentrated in cities and the opportunities to gain efficiencies, cities are the most important arena for intervention.? Maurice Strong Unabated urbanisation Quest for sustainable development What makes a city sustainable? Slide 3 of 17...

Urban Health and Welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa: Population Growth, Urbanisation, Water/Sanitation Services, Slumisation and Poverty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

RICHARD INGWE

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Spatio-temporal analysis was applied on data representing urbanisation, slumisation, poverty, safe water/ sanitation in urban sub-Saharan Africa (SSA. The findings include: rapid rates of national population growth and urbanisation throughout SSA from 1980 to 2005, averaging 93.8% (range: 90.5% points, lowest and highest rates being 40% (Lesotho and 130.5% (Niger, respectively; high national poverty rates, widespread in SSA: (>50% in about seven countries; it might have been similar in more countries if a large number of SSA countries had reported their 1993 poverty rates; high urban/rural poverty ratios (1.05-1.79 points range between Nigeria and Benin Republics. High average rate (73% of slumisation in SSA in 2001 (range: 96%, lowest and highest rates being in Zimbabwe (3% and Chad/Ethiopia (99%, respectively. SSA’s 2000 health adjusted life expectancy was generally low: 38.8 years (<40 years in 24 countries. Use of safe/improved water/sanitation services were poor almost throughout SSA: declined rapidly and ubiquitously from 72% (2000 to 55% (2002, minus 17% points decrease in three years within individual countries with alarming declines up to minus 69% points in Guinea. The policy implications of the findings include the urgent and imperative need to massively implement urban improvement programmes designed to provide health-inducing services/facilities across SSA.

Random-growth urban model with geographical fitness

Science.gov (United States)

Kii, Masanobu; Akimoto, Keigo; Doi, Kenji

2012-12-01

This paper formulates a random-growth urban model with a notion of geographical fitness. Using techniques of complex-network theory, we study our system as a type of preferential-attachment model with fitness, and we analyze its macro behavior to clarify the properties of the city-size distributions it predicts. First, restricting the geographical fitness to take positive values and using a continuum approach, we show that the city-size distributions predicted by our model asymptotically approach Pareto distributions with coefficients greater than unity. Then, allowing the geographical fitness to take negative values, we perform local coefficient analysis to show that the predicted city-size distributions can deviate from Pareto distributions, as is often observed in actual city-size distributions. As a result, the model we propose can generate a generic class of city-size distributions, including but not limited to Pareto distributions. For applications to city-population projections, our simple model requires randomness only when new cities are created, not during their subsequent growth. This property leads to smooth trajectories of city population growth, in contrast to other models using Gibrat’s law. In addition, a discrete form of our dynamical equations can be used to estimate past city populations based on present-day data; this fact allows quantitative assessment of the performance of our model. Further study is needed to determine appropriate formulas for the geographical fitness.

Simulating urban growth by emphasis on connective routes network (case study: Bojnourd city

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehdi Saadat Novin

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Development of urban construction and ever-increasing growth of population lead to landuse changes especially in agricultural lands, which play an important role in providing human food. According to this issue, a proper landuse planning is required to protecting and preserving the valuable agricultural lands and environment, in today’s world. The prediction of urban growth can help in understanding the potential impacts on a region’s water resource, economy and people. One of the effective parameters in development of cities is connective routes network and their different types and qualities that play an important role in decreasing or increasing the growth of the city. On the other hand, the type of the connective routes network is an important factor for the speed and quality of development. In this paper, two different scenarios were used to simulate landuse changes and analyzing their results. In first scenario, modeling is based on the effective parameters in urban growth without classification of connective routes network. In the second scenario, effective parameters in urban growth were considered and connective routes were classified in 6 different classes with different weights in order to examine their effect on urban development. Simulation of landuse has been carried out for 2020–2050. The results clearly showed the effect of the connective routes network classification in output maps so that the effect of the first and second main routes network in development, is conspicuous.

Morbidity, rickets and long-bone growth in post-medieval Britain--a cross-population analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Pinhasi, R; Shaw, P; White, B; Ogden, A R

2006-01-01

Vitamin D deficiency rickets is associated with skeletal deformities including swollen rib junctions, bowing of the legs, and the flaring and fraying of the wrist and long-bone metaphyses. There is, however, scarce information on the direct effect of rickets on skeletal growth in either present or past populations. The study investigated the effect of vitamin D deficiency rickets on long-bone growth in two post-medieval skeletal populations from East London (Broadgate and Christ Church Spitalfields). Subsequently, inter-population growth variations in relation to non-specific environmental stress (dental enamel defects), industrialization, urbanization and socio-economic status during infancy (birth to 3 years) and early childhood (3-7 years) were examined. Data on long-bone diaphyseal length dimensions and stress indicators of 234 subadults from Anglo-Saxon, late medieval and post-medieval archaeological skeletal samples were analysed using both linear and non-linear growth models. Rickets had no effect on the growth curves for any of the long bones studied. However, pronounced variations in growth between the four populations were noted, mainly during infancy. The diaphyseal length of long bones of Broadgate were significantly smaller-per-age than those of Spitalfields and the other samples up to the age of 4 years, and were associated with a high prevalence of enamel defects during early infancy. Socio-economic status, rather than urbanization, industrialization or rickets, was the central factor behind the observed differences in growth among the post-medieval populations. The observed inter-population growth variations were only significant during infancy.

The future is urban.

Science.gov (United States)

1992-05-01

Urban centers are growing due to natural increase and the movement of people from rural areas. Urban areas are the traditional centers of trade, science, and culture, but growth over a threshold results in crime, congestion, and pollution. Sustainability is threatened in modern towns that are dependent on other sources for food, fuel, or water. Housing, water, food supplies, and sanitation, communication, and transportation services are threatened in rapidly growing cities. In 1990 45/100 people lived in towns or cities. Hyper-cities have grown in number to 20, of which 14 are in developing countries. 83% of world population increase is expected to occur in cities. In 48 countries with faster population growth cities had growth rates averaging about 6.1% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged 2.8%. In 49 countries with slower population growth, urban growth rates averaged only 3.6% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged about 1.8%. Squatter settlements are endemic to urban areas that are congested and without basic services, limited housing particularly for the poor, and few job opportunities. The number of street children in urban areas has risen. This child population is subjected to low wages, overwork, auto accidents, poor health, and lack of social services. Malnutrition is a more serious issue in urban areas. In the Philippines malnutrition is 3% nationally and 9% in Metro Manila. Rural land reform in the Philippines is no longer a viable solution. In Metro Manila squatters are expected to increase in number to 4 million people by the year 2000, which would be almost 50% of total population. The squatter areas are areas of neglect, decay, and poverty. Cities are viewed as development's "blind alleys."

Modeling Urban Growth Spatial Dynamics: Case studies of Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam

Science.gov (United States)

Buchta, Katja; Abo El Wafa, Hany; Printz, Andreas; Pauleit, Stephan

2013-04-01

Rapid urbanization, and consequently, the dramatic spatial expansion of mostly informal urban areas increases the vulnerability of African cities to the effects of climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent flooding, droughts and heat waves. The EU FP 7 funded project CLUVA (Climate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, www.cluva.eu) aims to develop strategies for minimizing the risks of natural hazards caused by climate change and to improve the coping capacity of African cities. Green infrastructure may play a particular role in climate change adaptation by providing ecosystem services for flood protection, stormwater retention, heat island moderation and provision of food and fuel wood. In this context, a major challenge is to gain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the cities and how these impact on green infrastructure and hence their vulnerability. Urban growth scenarios for two African cities, namely Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, were developed based on a characterization of their urban morphology. A population growth driven - GIS based - disaggregation modeling approach was applied. Major impact factors influencing the urban dynamics were identified both from literature and interviews with local experts. Location based factors including proximity to road infrastructure and accessibility, and environmental factors including slope, surface and flood risk areas showed a particular impact on urban growth patterns. In Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam, population density scenarios were modeled comparing two housing development strategies. Results showed that a densification scenario significantly decreases the loss of agricultural and green areas such as forests, bushland and sports grounds. In Dar es Salaam, the scenario of planned new settlements with a population density of max. 350 persons per hectare would lead until 2025 to a loss of agricultural land (-10.1%) and green areas (-6.6%). On the other

[Fifty years of population growth and absorbing manual labor in Brazil, 1950-2000].

Science.gov (United States)

Paiva, P D

1986-01-01

The economically active population has grown rapidly in Brazil, resulting either from population growth or increased female participation in the work force. This rhythm of growth will continue at least until the end of this century. The authors suggest that the impact of the recent decline in fertility will be moderate and will only affect the younger age groups. Despite the rapid growth of employment in the processing industry, the relative size of the so-called informal sector has remained stable since 1950. It is further predicted that, given the economically active population's rate of growth and the decrease in employment in agriculture, there will be a great demand for urban employment in the next 20 years.

Urban growth and landscape connectivity threats assessment at Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Perkl, Ryan; Norman, Laura M.; Mitchell, David; Feller, Mark R.; Smith, Garrett; Wilson, Natalie R.

2018-01-01

Urban and exurban expansion results in habitat and biodiversity loss globally. We hypothesize that a coupled-model approach could connect urban planning for future cities with landscape ecology to consider wildland habitat connectivity. Our work combines urban growth simulations with models of wildlife corridors to examine how species will be impacted by development to test this hypothesis. We leverage a land use change model (SLEUTH) with structural and functional landscape-connectivity modeling techniques to ascertain the spatial extent and locations of connectivity related threats to a national park in southern Arizona, USA, and describe how protected areas might be impacted by urban expansion. Results of projected growth significantly altered structural connectivity (80%) when compared to current (baseline) corridor conditions. Moreover, projected growth impacted functional connectivity differently amongst species, indicating resilience of some species and near-complete displacement of others. We propose that implementing a geospatial-design-based model will allow for a better understanding of the impacts management decisions have on wildlife populations. The application provides the potential to understand both human and environmental impacts of land-system dynamics, critical for long-term sustainability.

Urbanization and Structural Transformation

OpenAIRE

Michaels, Guy; Rauch, Ferdinand; Redding, Stephen J.

2008-01-01

This paper presents new evidence on urbanization using sub-county data for the United States from 1880-2000 and municipality data for Brazil from 1970-2000. We show that the two central stylized features of population growth for cities - Gibrat's Law and a stable population distribution - are strongly rejected when both rural and urban areas are considered. Population growth exhibits a U-shaped relationship with initial population density, and only becomes uncorrelated with initial population...

Urban sprawl, smart growth, and deliberative democracy.

Science.gov (United States)

Resnik, David B

2010-10-01

Urban sprawl is an increasingly common feature of the built environment in the United States and other industrialized nations. Although there is considerable evidence that urban sprawl has adverse affects on public health and the environment, policy frameworks designed to combat sprawl-such as smart growth-have proven to be controversial, making implementation difficult. Smart growth has generated considerable controversy because stakeholders affected by urban planning policies have conflicting interests and divergent moral and political viewpoints. In some of these situations, deliberative democracy-an approach to resolving controversial public-policy questions that emphasizes open, deliberative debate among the affected parties as an alternative to voting-would be a fair and effective way to resolve urban-planning issues.

Simulating Population Growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Byington, Scott

1997-01-01

Presents a strategy to help students grasp the important implications of population growth. Involves an interactive demonstration that allows students to experience exponential and logistic population growth followed by a discussion of the implications of population-growth principles. (JRH)

Population growth and economic growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Narayana, D L

1984-01-01

This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize

Modeling urban growth in Kigali city Rwanda

African Journals Online (AJOL)

kagoyire

industrialization, land consumption and infrastructural development, have impacted ..... urban growth (reference image) and urban development predicted to the ..... neighboring characteristics (regular water and electricity provision) were not ...

Urban Growth Modelling with Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression. Case Study: Sanandaj City, Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SASSAN MOHAMMADY

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Cities have shown remarkable growth due to attraction, economic, social and facilities centralization in the past few decades. Population and urban expansion especially in developing countries, led to lack of resources, land use change from appropriate agricultural land to urban land use and marginalization. Under these circumstances, land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Different approaches have been attempted in urban expansion modelling. Artificial Neural network (ANN models are among knowledge-based models which have been used for urban growth modelling. ANNs are powerful tools that use a machine learning approach to quantify and model complex behaviour and patterns. In this research, ANN and logistic regression have been employed for interpreting urban growth modelling. Our case study is Sanandaj city and we used Landsat TM and ETM+ imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006. The dataset used includes distance to main roads, distance to the residence region, elevation, slope, and distance to green space. Percent Area Match (PAM obtained from modelling of these changes with ANN is equal to 90.47% and the accuracy achieved for urban growth modelling with Logistic Regression (LR is equal to 88.91%. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit for ANN method were 91.33% and 59.07% and then for LR were 90.84% and 57.07%, respectively.

Urban Growth Modeling Using Anfis Algorithm: a Case Study for Sanandaj City, Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pijanowski, B. C.

2013-10-01

Global urban population has increased from 22.9% in 1985 to 47% in 2010. In spite of the tendency for urbanization worldwide, only about 2% of Earth's land surface is covered by cities. Urban population in Iran is increasing due to social and economic development. The proportion of the population living in Iran urban areas has consistently increased from about 31% in 1956 to 68.4% in 2006. Migration of the rural population to cities and population growth in cities have caused many problems, such as irregular growth of cities, improper placement of infrastructure and urban services. Air and environmental pollution, resource degradation and insufficient infrastructure, are the results of poor urban planning that have negative impact on the environment or livelihoods of people living in cities. These issues are a consequence of improper land use planning. Models have been employed to assist in our understanding of relations between land use and its subsequent effects. Different models for urban growth modeling have been developed. Methods from computational intelligence have made great contributions in all specific application domains and hybrid algorithms research as a part of them has become a big trend in computational intelligence. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has the capability to deal with imprecise data by training, while fuzzy logic can deal with the uncertainty of human cognition. ANN learns from scratch by adjusting the interconnections between layers and Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) is a popular computing framework based on the concept of fuzzy set theory, fuzzy logic, and fuzzy reasoning. Fuzzy logic has many advantages such as flexibility and at the other sides, one of the biggest problems in fuzzy logic application is the location and shape and of membership function for each fuzzy variable which is generally being solved by trial and error method. In contrast, numerical computation and learning are the advantages of neural network, however, it is

URBAN GROWTH MODELING USING ANFIS ALGORITHM: A CASE STUDY FOR SANANDAJ CITY, IRAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Mohammady

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Global urban population has increased from 22.9% in 1985 to 47% in 2010. In spite of the tendency for urbanization worldwide, only about 2% of Earth's land surface is covered by cities. Urban population in Iran is increasing due to social and economic development. The proportion of the population living in Iran urban areas has consistently increased from about 31% in 1956 to 68.4% in 2006. Migration of the rural population to cities and population growth in cities have caused many problems, such as irregular growth of cities, improper placement of infrastructure and urban services. Air and environmental pollution, resource degradation and insufficient infrastructure, are the results of poor urban planning that have negative impact on the environment or livelihoods of people living in cities. These issues are a consequence of improper land use planning. Models have been employed to assist in our understanding of relations between land use and its subsequent effects. Different models for urban growth modeling have been developed. Methods from computational intelligence have made great contributions in all specific application domains and hybrid algorithms research as a part of them has become a big trend in computational intelligence. Artificial Neural Network (ANN has the capability to deal with imprecise data by training, while fuzzy logic can deal with the uncertainty of human cognition. ANN learns from scratch by adjusting the interconnections between layers and Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS is a popular computing framework based on the concept of fuzzy set theory, fuzzy logic, and fuzzy reasoning. Fuzzy logic has many advantages such as flexibility and at the other sides, one of the biggest problems in fuzzy logic application is the location and shape and of membership function for each fuzzy variable which is generally being solved by trial and error method. In contrast, numerical computation and learning are the advantages of neural network

[Economic growth with zero population growth and with declining population].

Science.gov (United States)

Kurz, R

1982-05-01

The effects of both zero population growth and a declining population on economic growth are considered. Although the neoclassical theory of economic growth leads to optimistic results in such cases, the author suggests that this theory cannot be used as a basis for political action. The need for further research into the economic effects of a stationary or declining population is stressed. (summary in ENG)

Fifty years of population growth and absorption of labor in Brazil: from 1950 to 2000.

Science.gov (United States)

Paiva, P D

1997-01-01

For a long time, the Brazilian population has grown at a relatively high rate, and only recently has the process of demographic transition intensified in the country. While the associated decline in fertility could result in a future decline in the size of the working-age population, it could also lead to an increase in female participation in the labor market. Brazil's economy is performing well, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an average annual rate of 7.1% during 1947-80. Marked growth in industrial employment opportunities has accompanied this growth in GDP. The size of the informal sector, however, has not decreased in similar proportion, while the 1981-83 economic crisis caused urban employment levels to drop, especially in industry and construction. Moreover, the level of rural-urban migration has increased and the agricultural employment index has fallen. The author evaluates past growth trends of the Economically Active Population (EAP) and of employment in Brazil, and assesses the potential growth of the labor force until the year 2000.

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient.

Science.gov (United States)

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-09-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients.

[Has the urban transition ended in sub-Saharan Africa?].

Science.gov (United States)

Bocquier, P

1999-01-01

In 1950, 28% of the world¿s population lived in cities. At that point, localities larger than 10,000 inhabitants were home to 0.7 billion people, of whom 36% were in developing countries. However, according to UN projections, the rate of urbanization will reach 47.4% in 2000, with cities housing 2.9 billion people, of whom 68.7% will be in developing countries. Africa, like other continents, is urbanizing. Although Africa is among the world¿s least urbanized regions, it is nonetheless the continent with the highest rate of urbanization. Urban population growth reached its height during the 1950s, then the urban population in the region multiplied by a factor of 10 during 1950-90, far outpacing the rate of overall population growth on the continent. However, during the 1980s and 1990s, urban growth in Africa declined sharply. The author discusses urbanization in Africa devoid of industrialization, declining rates of urban population growth in the region, the uncertain future of urbanization in Africa, and how future urbanization in Africa depends upon the role the continent will play in the global economy.

Learning from urban growth management in the Pacific Northwest

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fertner, Christian

2010-01-01

The development of contemporary urban growth management in the Northwest United States began in the 1970s. The major tool is the implementation of urban containment boundaries, fostering growth within and limiting it outside the boundary. Additionally a set of policies reaching from densification...... Washington and Oregon as e.g. the municipalities in Denmark have strong control options in planning. However, especially the metropolitan co-operation and co-ordination instruments can certainly contribute to the discussion on urban growth management in Denmark and elsewhere....

Growth pattern of preterm and IUGR babies in an urban slum of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The present study was carried out to analyze the growth pattern of preterm and IUGR infants from birth up to nine months of age. A longitudinal study was conducted in an urban slum of Chetla, Kolkata, India. Study population comprised of 36 low birth weight babies, out of which 13 were preterms and rest 23 were IUGR ...

Song convergence in multiple urban populations of silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis).

Science.gov (United States)

Potvin, Dominique A; Parris, Kirsten M

2012-08-01

Recent studies have revealed differences between urban and rural vocalizations of numerous bird species. These differences include frequency shifts, amplitude shifts, altered song speed, and selective meme use. If particular memes sung by urban populations are adapted to the urban soundscape, "urban-typical" calls, memes, or repertoires should be consistently used in multiple urban populations of the same species, regardless of geographic location. We tested whether songs or contact calls of silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis) might be subject to such convergent cultural evolution by comparing syllable repertoires of geographically dispersed urban and rural population pairs throughout southeastern Australia. Despite frequency and tempo differences between urban and rural calls, call repertoires were similar between habitat types. However, certain song syllables were used more frequently by birds from urban than rural populations. Partial redundancy analysis revealed that both geographic location and habitat characteristics were important predictors of syllable repertoire composition. These findings suggest convergent cultural evolution: urban populations modify both song and call syllables from their local repertoire in response to noise.

Urban Transport and Communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Irandu, E.M.

1999-01-01

The population according to the 1989 census was 21,448,774 inhabitants. This figure shows that on average the total population has been increasing by more than 40% every decade since 1948. As a result the widening gap between fertility and mortality, the population is growing at an accelerated rate. The current official population growth rate figure of 3.4% per annum puts the country among the world's most rapidly growing nations. It is projected that by the year 2010, the population will be about 37.4 million. At present the urban centres with a population size of 2,000 people and above constitute about 18.1% of the total population (Kenya, 1994). Rapid economic growth has led to the development of a number of urban centres as centres of commerce, industry and tourism. Consequently, this has led to rural urban drift. This drift to urban areas causes a number of problems which if unresolved will limit the ability of the urban centres to support their population The rapid increase in urban population causes a shortage of facilities to meet the increasing demand in services such as public transport, water supply, sewage and housing (Ramatullah, 1997: 161-168). Urban Transport acts as catalyst to both urban and national development, by facilitating the movements associated with urban and national Development. They provide a means by which goods and services are made available to industry and consumers, creating opportunity for social and economic interaction and employment. Without urban transport, access to health, education and employment would not be possible. Indeed urban transport is what gives life to urban development

Using GIS for Developing Sustainable Urban Growth Case Kyrenia Region

Science.gov (United States)

Kara, C.; Akçit, N.

2018-03-01

It is critical to develop urban layers for analysis sustainable urban development possibilities within planning process. Kyrenia Region has many physical, environmental or economic issues that may danger the growth possibilities in sustainable manner. From this point, this study uses different spatial layers such as slope, distance to roads, distance to central zone, vegetation, soil productivity, environmental protection zones, distance to open/green space, distance to education for supporting sustainable urban growth policies and define suitable areas for urban development within this perspective. The study tries to convert sustainable urban growth policies such as; compact growth, environmental protection, equal accessibility to basic services; into spatial layers and establish proper framework for multi criteria evaluation in Kyrenia Region within using geographical information systems. It shows suitability values for Kyrenia region and constraints zones at final section. It clearly presents the suitable areas for the sustainable urbanization and also unsuitable or risky areas for reducing the possible disasters and may happen in the future.

Quantifying Impacts of Urban Growth Potential on Army Training Capabilities

Science.gov (United States)

2017-09-12

Capacity” ERDC/CERL TR-17-34 ii Abstract Building on previous studies of urban growth and population effects on U.S. military installations and...Bryan S. Green and the Director was Dr. David W. Pittman. ERDC/CERL TR-17-34 viii Unit Conversion Factors Multiply By To Obtain acres 4,046.873...combat team studies. CAA has developed an iterative process that builds on Military Value Anal- ysis (MVA) models that include a set of attributes that

Six decades of urban growth using remote sensing and GIS in the city of Bandar Abbas, Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dadras, Mohsen; Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

2014-01-01

Bandar Abbas is the capital city of Hormozgan province, is the south of Iran. The city has witnessed rapid growth in the last three decades, mostly because of its economic, commercial and social attractions. However, forms and operations of urban sprawl may vary in important manners according to determine geographical and historical characteristics, and these difference need to be reviewed with creation geodatabase of spatial and attribute data during past periods until now of urban formation and expansion. We implemented this research to understand Bandar Abbas city growth dynamic during last six decades using aerial photo, Remote Sensing (RS) data and Geographical Information System (GIS), to investigate its sprawl for the during six decades and to prepare a basis for urban planning and management. We calibrated it with geospatial data derived from a time series of aerial photos and satellite images. Treated remote sensing data covering the six decades were used to calculate land use/cover and urban growth. The application of classification techniques to the remote sensing data enabled the extraction of eight main types of land use: agricultural, barren, coastal, hole, river, rocky hill, urban, and built-up. Growth was calculated through Shannon's entropy model. The urbanized area increased from 403.77 ha to 4959.59 ha from 1956 to 2012, a rate almost five times that of the population growth observed in the same period. Such findings make the case of Bandar Abbas important for several reasons. First, Bandar Abbas has undergone a rapid increase in urban sprawl according to urban growth indicators. Second, the urban sprawl quickly grew from medium-sized to large a process considered inappropriate according to physical and structural limitations on urban growth. Lastly, the excessive extension of the built-up boundary in the city resulted in the loss of coastal land and open space, two main sources of tourist attraction and economic sustainable development

Econometric studies of urban population density: a survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Mcdonald, J F

1989-01-01

This paper presents the 1st reasonably comprehensive survey of empirical research of urban population densities since the publication of the book by Edmonston in 1975. The survey summarizes contributions to empirical knowledge that have been made since 1975 and points toward possible areas for additional research. The paper also provides a brief interpretative intellectual history of the topic. It begins with a personal overview of research in the field. The next section discusses econometric issues that arise in the estimation of population density functions in which density is a function only of a distance to the central business district of the urban area. Section 4 summarizes the studies of a single urban area that went beyond the estimation of simple distance-density functions, and Section 5 discusses studies that sought to explain the variations across urban areas in population density patterns. McDonald refers to the standard theory of urban population density throughout the paper. This basic model is presented in the textbook by Mills and Hamilton and it is assumed that the reader is familiar with the model.

Population Growth and National Population Policy of India

Science.gov (United States)

Thukral, A. K.; Singh, B. P.

2008-01-01

The population growth in India may overtake China by the year 2030. The National Population Policy of India targets population stabilization in India by the year 2045. The present paper carries out objective analysis of the population growth in India in terms of change in specific growth. At the present rate of specific growth rate decline, the population by the end of the century will be 2.49 billion. For the population to achieve zero growth by the year 2045, a decline in specific growth rate will have to be achieved at the rate of 0.000428 per year.

A meta-analysis of global urban land expansion.

Science.gov (United States)

Seto, Karen C; Fragkias, Michail; Güneralp, Burak; Reilly, Michael K

2011-01-01

The conversion of Earth's land surface to urban uses is one of the most irreversible human impacts on the global biosphere. It drives the loss of farmland, affects local climate, fragments habitats, and threatens biodiversity. Here we present a meta-analysis of 326 studies that have used remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. We report a worldwide observed increase in urban land area of 58,000 km(2) from 1970 to 2000. India, China, and Africa have experienced the highest rates of urban land expansion, and the largest change in total urban extent has occurred in North America. Across all regions and for all three decades, urban land expansion rates are higher than or equal to urban population growth rates, suggesting that urban growth is becoming more expansive than compact. Annual growth in GDP per capita drives approximately half of the observed urban land expansion in China but only moderately affects urban expansion in India and Africa, where urban land expansion is driven more by urban population growth. In high income countries, rates of urban land expansion are slower and increasingly related to GDP growth. However, in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion than it does in Europe. Much of the observed variation in urban expansion was not captured by either population, GDP, or other variables in the model. This suggests that contemporary urban expansion is related to a variety of factors difficult to observe comprehensively at the global level, including international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policy, and generalized transport costs. Using the results from the global model, we develop forecasts for new urban land cover using SRES Scenarios. Our results show that by 2030, global urban land cover will increase between 430,000 km(2) and 12,568,000 km(2), with an estimate of 1,527,000 km(2) more likely.

Simulating urban growth in the George town conurbation | Samat ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... Therefore, this paper aims to develop an urban growth simulation model using GIS-based CA-Markov approach, incorporated with driving forces of urban growth in the Malaysian context. ... Keywords: CA-Markov; Geograpghic Information Sciences (GIS); Land use changes;

The population in China’s earthquake-prone areas has increased by over 32 million along with rapid urbanization

Science.gov (United States)

He, Chunyang; Huang, Qingxu; Dou, Yinyin; Tu, Wei; Liu, Jifu

2016-07-01

Accurate assessments of the population exposed to seismic hazard are crucial in seismic risk mapping. Recent rapid urbanization in China has resulted in substantial changes in the size and structure of the population exposed to seismic hazard. Using the latest population census data and seismic maps, this work investigated spatiotemporal changes in the exposure of the population in the most seismically hazardous areas (MSHAs) in China from 1990 to 2010. In the context of rapid urbanization and massive rural-to-urban migration, nearly one-tenth of the Chinese population in 2010 lived in MSHAs. From 1990 to 2010, the MSHA population increased by 32.53 million at a significantly higher rate of change (33.6%) than the national average rate (17.7%). The elderly population in MSHAs increased by 81.4%, which is much higher than the group’s national growth rate of 58.9%. Greater attention should be paid to the demographic changes in earthquake-prone areas in China.

Assessments of urban growth in the Tampa Bay watershed using remote sensing data

Science.gov (United States)

Xian, G.; Crane, M.

2005-01-01

Urban development has expanded rapidly in the Tampa Bay area of west-central Florida over the past century. A major effect associated with this population trend is transformation of the landscape from natural cover types to increasingly impervious urban land. This research utilizes an innovative approach for mapping urban extent and its changes through determining impervious surfaces from Landsat satellite remote sensing data. By 2002, areas with subpixel impervious surface greater than 10% accounted for approximately 1800 km2, or 27 percent of the total watershed area. The impervious surface area increases approximately three-fold from 1991 to 2002. The resulting imperviousness data are used with a defined suite of geospatial data sets to simulate historical urban development and predict future urban and suburban extent, density, and growth patterns using SLEUTH model. Also examined is the increasingly important influence that urbanization and its associated imperviousness extent have on the individual drainage basins of the Tampa Bay watershed.

Modeling urban growth by the use of a multiobjective optimization approach: environmental and economic issues for the Yangtze watershed, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wenting; Wang, Haijun; Han, Fengxiang; Gao, Juan; Nguyen, Thuminh; Chen, Yarong; Huang, Bo; Zhan, F Benjamin; Zhou, Lequn; Hong, Song

2014-11-01

Urban growth is an unavoidable process caused by economic development and population growth. Traditional urban growth models represent the future urban growth pattern by repeating the historical urban growth regulations, which can lead to a lot of environmental problems. The Yangtze watershed is the largest and the most prosperous economic area in China, and it has been suffering from rapid urban growth from the 1970s. With the built-up area increasing from 23,238 to 31,054 km(2) during the period from 1980 to 2005, the watershed has suffered from serious nonpoint source (NPS) pollution problems, which have been mainly caused by the rapid urban growth. To protect the environment and at the same time maintain the economic development, a multiobjective optimization (MOP) is proposed to tradeoff the multiple objectives during the urban growth process of the Yangtze watershed. In particular, the four objectives of minimization of NPS pollution, maximization of GDP value, minimization of the spatial incompatibility between the land uses, and minimization of the cost of land-use change are considered by the MOP approach. Conventionally, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed to search the Pareto solution set. In our MOP approach, a two-dimensional GA, rather than the traditional one-dimensional GA, is employed to assist with the search for the spatial optimization solution, where the land-use cells in the two-dimensional space act as genes in the GA. Furthermore, to confirm the superiority of the MOP approach over the traditional prediction approaches, a widely used urban growth prediction model, cellular automata (CA), is also carried out to allow a comparison with the Pareto solution of MOP. The results indicate that the MOP approach can make a tradeoff between the multiple objectives and can achieve an optimal urban growth pattern for Yangtze watershed, while the CA prediction model just represents the historical urban growth pattern as the future growth pattern

Modeling urban fire growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waterman, T.E.; Takata, A.N.

1983-01-01

The IITRI Urban Fire Spread Model as well as others of similar vintage were constrained by computer size and running costs such that many approximations/generalizations were introduced to reduce program complexity and data storage requirements. Simplifications were introduced both in input data and in fire growth and spread calculations. Modern computational capabilities offer the means to introduce greater detail and to examine its practical significance on urban fire predictions. Selected portions of the model are described as presently configured, and potential modifications are discussed. A single tract model is hypothesized which permits the importance of various model details to be assessed, and, other model applications are identified

Monitoring of urban growth and its related environmental impacts: Niamey case study

Science.gov (United States)

Perotti, Luigi; Tankari Dan-Badjo, Abdourahamane; De Luca, Domenico Antonio; Antonella Dino, Giovanna; Lasagna, Manuela; Spadafora, Francesco; Yadji, Guero; Konaté, Moussa

2016-04-01

The present contribution is about a preliminary study of the evolution of Niamey city (Niger) during last decades. Such research is part of an UNICOO project (funded by the University of Turin) and connected to the Edulink Cooperation Project (R.U.S.S.A.D.E.), a multidisciplinary project between Italy, Niger, Burkina Faso and Tchad funded on ACP- EU cooperation program in Higher Education. Recent advances in remote sensing, both in satellite hardware technology (i.e. image availability) and image processing algorithm development, provide opportunities for collection and analysis of multitemporal information on urban form and size that can be useful for policy and planning. In spite of these developments, there are also limitations to remote sensing and its application in practice. Some opportunities for, and limitations on, monitoring urban growth using remote sensing data are shown in the present contribution; moreover examples of environmental impacts of urban growth, as monitored with remote sensing, are provided. Niamey is the capital of Niger and is the first city in the country in size and economic importance. Its population increased gradually, from about 3,000 units in 1930 to about 30,000 in 1960, rising to 250,000 in 1980 and, according to estimates, to 800,000 units in 2000. Its patterns of population distribution, livelihoods, and its dominant role within the national economy of Niger make it a good representative case study for West Africa. This case study will consider the recent historical context of continued urban growth and will assess potential future impacts of settlement patterns. The rapid growth of Niamey in the last decades brought relative prosperity but it certainly affected patterns of land use within the city and the emerging urban system. After a preliminary sketch of the georesources in the city (qualitative and quantitative characterization of the surface water and groundwater, and of aggregates), an analyses of the urban growth and

Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudio Jose Struchiner

Full Text Available In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83. Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

Population growth and the decline of natural Southern yellow pine forests

Science.gov (United States)

David B. South; Edward R. Buckner

2004-01-01

Population growth has created social and economic pressures that affect the sustainability of naturally regenerated southern yellow pine forests. Major causes of this decline include (1) a shift in public attitudes regarding woods burning (from one favoring it to one that favors fire suppression) and (2) an increase in land values (especially near urban centers). The...

Rapid population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

1972-01-01

At the current rate of population growth, world population by 2000 is expected to reach 7 billion or more, with developing countries accounting for some 5.4 billion, and economically advanced nations accounting for 1.6 billion. 'Population explosion' is the result of falling mortality rates and continuing high birth rates. Many European countries, and Japan, have already completed what is termed as demographic transition, that is, birth rates have fallen to below 20 births per 1000 population, death rates to 10/1000 population, and annual growth rates are 1% or less; annual growth rates for less developed countries ranged from 2 to 3.5%. Less developed countries can be divided into 3 groups: 1) countries with both high birth and death rates; 2) countries with high birth rates and low death rates; and 3) countries with intermediate and declining birth rates and low death rates. Rapid population growth has serious economic consequences. It encourages inequities in income distribution; it limits rate of growth of gross national product by holding down level of savings and capital investments; it exerts pressure on agricultural production and land; and it creates unemployment problems. In addition, the quality of education for increasing number of chidren is adversely affected, as high proportions of children reduce the amount that can be spent for the education of each child out of the educational budget; the cost and adequacy of health and welfare services are affected in a similar way. Other serious consequences of rapid population growth are maternal death and illness, and physical and mental retardation of children of very poor families. It is very urgent that over a billion births be prevented in the next 30 years to reduce annual population growth rate from the current 2% to 1% per year.

The Rise of Urban Slum in Nigeria: Implications on the Urban ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... defacement of the urban landscape in Nigeria. It recommends that Government and city planners should provide affordable land and low cost housing for the urban dwellers. This will enable people to own their property or rent as the case may be. Keywords: Urban Slum, Urban Landscape, Implication, Population, Growth

Urban Growth Dynamics in Perth, Western Australia: Using Applied Remote Sensing for Sustainable Future Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew MacLachlan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Earth observation data can provide valuable assessments for monitoring the spatial extent of (unsustainable urban growth of the world’s cities to better inform planning policy in reducing associated economic, social and environmental costs. Western Australia has witnessed rapid economic expansion since the turn of the century founded upon extensive natural resource extraction. Thus, Perth, the state capital of Western Australia, has encountered significant population and urban growth in response to the booming state economy. However, the recent economic slowdown resulted in the largest decrease in natural resource values that Western Australia has ever experienced. Here, we present multi-temporal urban expansion statistics from 1990 to 2015 for Perth, derived from Landsat imagery. Current urban estimates used for future development plans and progress monitoring of infill and density targets are based upon aggregated census data and metrics unrepresentative of actual land cover change, underestimating overall urban area. Earth observation provides a temporally consistent methodology, identifying areal urban area at higher spatial and temporal resolution than current estimates. Our results indicate that the spatial extent of the Perth Metropolitan Region has increased 45% between 1990 and 2015, over 320 km2. We highlight the applicability of earth observation data in accurately quantifying urban area for sustainable targeted planning practices.

Urbanization and Condition of Urban Slums in India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Digambar Abaji Chimankar

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The present paper attempted to study the urbanization in India and condition of urban slums in terms of water, sanitation, electricity, garbage collection and health care, and education which are supposed to be basic minimum needs for the slum dwellers. India is going through the process of rapid urbanization because of industrialization like other third world countries.  The percent of urbanization increase from 27.8 percent in 2001 to 31.1 percent in 2011 census. The increase in the percentage of population in urban areas is because of natural growth, rural to urban migration and the reclassification of village and towns. The share of the slum population in the total urban population of the country was 18.3 percent in 2001 while in 2011 it was 17.4 percent. The condition of urban slums in India is to be improved so as to make them better for living.

Rapid Urban Growth and Land Use Patterns in Doha, Qatar: Opportunities for Sustainability?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vivek Shandas

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Amidst chaotic growth of Asian cities, the expansion of urban infrastructure in the Middle East's Gulf region is arguably outpacing any other region on the planet. Yet we have a limited understanding of the types of urban form or the extent to which this rapid urbanization is giving rise to sustainable patterns of growth. We ask, what is the pace and character of urban growth in one Middle East city, Doha, Qatar. By using remotely sensed imagery from 1987 to 2013, we examined the pace, quality, and characteristics of urban growth. We further use the results to create a typology of urban growth that integrates historical and spatial dimensions for describing the qualitative aspects of growth and its implications on regional landscapes. Our results suggest that Doha is creating development patterns similar to many Western cities, and that planners may need to consider whether the emerging urban form offers opportunities for more sustainable growth in the future.

Urban growth and water access in sub-Saharan Africa: Progress, challenges, and emerging research directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Dos Santos, S; Adams, E A; Neville, G; Wada, Y; de Sherbinin, A; Mullin Bernhardt, E; Adamo, S B

2017-12-31

For the next decade, the global water crisis remains the risk of highest concern, and ranks ahead of climate change, extreme weather events, food crises and social instability. Across the globe, nearly one in ten people is without access to an improved drinking water source. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the most affected, having disproportionately more of the global population without access to clean water than other major regions. Population growth, changing lifestyles, increasing pollution and accelerating urbanization will continue to widen the gap between the demand for water and available supply especially in urban areas, and disproportionately affect informal settlements, where the majority of SSA's urban population resides. Distribution and allocation of water will be affected by climate-induced water stresses, poor institutions, ineffective governance, and weak political will to address scarcity and mediate uncertainties in future supply. While attempts have been made by many scientists to examine different dimensions of water scarcity and urban population dynamics, there are few comprehensive reviews, especially focused on the particular situation in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper contributes to interdisciplinary understanding of urban water supply by distilling and integrating relevant empirical knowledge on urban dynamics and water issues in SSA, focusing on progress made and associated challenges. It then points out future research directions including the need to understand how alternatives to centralized water policies may help deliver sustainable water supply to cities and informal settlements in the region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social policy and population growth in South-East Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

You Poh Seng Rao, B; Shantakumar, G

1974-01-01

Social and population policies are considered for the 10 countries comprising Southeast Asia--Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, North Vietnam, and South Vietnam. All but Singapore have high fertility rates and Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos and the two Vietnams have high mortality rates also. Government expenditures for education and social security systems is expanding throughout the region and it is hoped that their continued growth will contribute substantially to the effective implementation of population policies. Population policies in the 5 countries which have them are discussed. These are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It is noted, however, that declaration of policy is but the first step. Strategies and programs differ from one country to the next and depend very much on the stage of development, level of literacy, degree of urbanization, and other factors. Family planning activities generally are endogenous to urban social systems but exogenous to rural social systems. Thus, the rural elite has a large role to play in making population policies an integral part of rural life. The possibility is considered of developing workable incentive packages integrating health, education, and social security benefits with suitable emphasis on fertility reduction.

Procedural modeling of urban layout: population, land use, and road network

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lyu, X.; Han, Q.; de Vries, B.

2017-01-01

This paper introduces an urban simulation system generating urban layouts with population, road network and land use layers. The desired urban spatial structure is obtained by generating a population map based on population density models. The road network is generated at two spatial levels

Urban blight and urban redesign

OpenAIRE

Zsilincsar, Walter

2018-01-01

The phenomenon of urban blight dates back to the 19th century when industrialisation starting in Europe and North America initiated an uncontrolled urban growth in combination with strong demand in cheap an quickly constructed housing. Ghettoisation of mainly the working-class population and other “marginal groups” were the consequence together with a constant decay of single buildings, whole blocks and quarters. These general aspects of urban blight with its additional facettes or aspects re...

China's Urban Transition.

Science.gov (United States)

Pannell, Clifton

1995-01-01

Maintains that Chinese urbanization is proceeding rapidly in step with population growth and a structural shift in employment patterns. Discusses governmental policies and economic reforms that enhance the urbanization process. Describes four extended metropolitan areas and maintains they will be the models for future urbanization. (CFR)

Change detection of runoff-urban growth relationship in urbanised watershed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abas, Aisya Azizah; Hashim, Mazlan

2014-01-01

Urban growth has negative environmental impacts that create water-based disasters such as flash floods and storm runoff causing billions of dollars worth of damage each year. Due to serious flash floods in urbanised areas of Malaysia, water resource management is a vital issue. This paper reports on a study that has been carried out using remote sensing techniques and hydrological modelling for examining the spatial patterns changes of urban areas and its impacts on surface runoff. The estimation of surface runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS CN) method was performed by integrating both remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. Remote sensing is a data sources for monitoring urban growth by quantifying the changes of urban area and its environmental impact are then analysed by using a GIS-based hydrological model. By linking the integrated approach of remote sensing and GIS, the relationship of runoff with urban expansion are further examined. Hence, the changes in runoff due to urbanisation are analysed. This methodology is applied to the central region of Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur, where rapid urban growth has occurred over the last decade. The results showed that there was a significant between spatial patterns of urban growth and estimated runoff depth. The increase in runoff from year 2000, 2006 and 2010 are estimated about five percent

Trends in the growth of population and labour force in Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Hashmi, S S

1990-01-01

Trends in the growth of the population and labor force in Pakistan are examined and future prospects for growth of population and labor, particularly agriculture, are estimated. The definition of labor force as employed or seeking work after a short period of employment has led to a great disparity in results for women in the labor force. Past trends in population growth reflected a growth rate of 1.6% for the 1950's, and 2.4% in 1960. The population rose to 84.3 million in 1981 from 42.6 million in 1961, which intercensally was an increase of 3.6% per annum for 1961-72 and 3.1% per annum for 1972-81. The estimated rate for 1981-86 was 2.9%/year. The rural population doubled and the urban tripled. There was a net migration of 2.123 million to urban areas reported in the 1981 census. There is also evidence of a high sex ratio. Balochistan (7.1%) and Sindh (3.6%) provinces have the highest growth rates. Although the largest population is in the Punjab, the growth is the lowest at 2.7%. The population is primarily young -- 44.5% 15 years in 1981, which is the highest in the world. Under high, medium, and low levels of fertility, prospective trends are estimated for 2006 and 2031, and by sex every 5 years from 1981. Population under high fertility is expected to reach 270 million by 2031, which is 3.39 persons/hectare. The population/hectare of land under cultivation was 4.25 in 1981 and is expected to rise to 13.49 persons/hectare in 2031. 11 million acres could be brought under cultivation to reduce the ratio. However, there are ecological considerations as well as an employment problem. The dependency ratio under the high variant will decline from 76.8 persons 0-14 and 65 years/100 persons 15-64 years in 1986 to 70.3 in 2006 which is still considerably higher than other developing countries. It is suggested that replacement level fertility be attained as soon as possible. Under low fertility, replacement level can be reached by 2011 with strong political commitment

Modeling Urban Collaborative Growth Dynamics Using a Multiscale Simulation Model for the Wuhan Urban Agglomeration Area, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Yu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Urban agglomeration has become the predominant form of urbanization in China. In this process, spatial interaction evidently played a significant role in promoting the collaborative development of these correlated cities. The traditional urban model’s focus on individual cities should be transformed to an urban system model. In this study, a multi-scale simulation model has been proposed to simulate the agglomeration development process of the Wuhan urban agglomeration area by embedding the multi-scale spatial interaction into the transition rule system of cellular automata (CA. A system dynamic model was used to predict the demand for new urban land at an aggregated urban agglomeration area scale. A data field approach was adopted to measuring the interaction of intercity at city scale. Neighborhood interaction was interpreted with a logistic regression method at the land parcel scale. Land use data from 1995, 2005, and 2015 were used to calibrate and evaluate the model. The simulation results show that there has been continuing urban growth in the Wuhan urban agglomeration area from 1995 to 2020. Although extension-sprawl was the predominant pattern of urban spatial expansion, the trend of extensive growth to intensive growth is clear during the entire period. The spatial interaction among these cities has been reinforced, which guided the collaborative development and formed the regional urban system network.

Urban growth in American cities : glimpses of U.S. urbanization

Science.gov (United States)

Auch, Roger; Taylor, Janis; Acevedo, William

2004-01-01

The Earth's surface is changing rapidly. Changes are local, regional, national, and even global in scope. Some changes have natural causes, such as earthquakes or drought. Other changes, such as urban expansion, agricultural intensification, resource extraction, and water resources development, are examples of human-induced change that have significant impact upon people, the economy, and resources. The consequences that result from these changes are often dramatic and widespread (Buchanan, Acevedo, and Zirbes, 2002)It is the role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide useful and relevant scientific information both to the agencies within the Department of the Interior and to the Nation in general. In an effort to comply with this task, USGS scientists are assessing the status of, and the trends in, the Nation's land surface. This assessment provides useful information for regional and national land use decisionmaking. This knowledge can be used to deal with issues of significance to the Nation, such as quality-of-life, ecology of urban environments, ecosystem health, ecological integrity, water quality and quantity concerns, resource availability, vulnerability to natural hazards, safeguards to human health, air and land quality, and accessibility to scientific information. Results of these assessments can also be analyzed to reveal rates and trends in land use change. Results from urban growth studies provide a firm foundation for continuing research that explores the consequences of human modification of the landscape.The USGS seeks to illustrate and explain the spatial history of urban growth and corresponding land use change. Scientists are studying urban environments from a regional perspective and a time scale of decades to measure the changes that have occurred in order to help understand the impact of anticipated changes in the future.Within this booklet are pairs of images of selected urbanized regions from across the Nation. These image pairs

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Spatial Determinants of Urban Growth in Suzhou, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ling Zhang

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban growth and models its spatial determinants in China through a case study of Suzhou, a rapidly industrializing and globalizing city. We conducted spatial analysis on land use data derived from multi-temporal remote sensing images of Suzhou from 1986 to 2008. Three urban growth types, namely infilling, edge-expansion, and leapfrog, were identified. We used landscape metrics to quantify the temporal trend of urban growth in Suzhou. During these 22 years, Suzhou’s urbanization changed from bottom-up rural urbanization to city-based top-down urban expansion. The underlying mechanism changed from TVE (town village enterprise driven rural industrialization to FDI (foreign direct investment driven development zone fever. Furthermore, we employed both global and local logistic regressions to model the probability of urban land conversion against a set of spatial variables. The global logistic regression model found the significance of proximity, neighborhood conditions, and socioeconomic factors. The logistic geographically weighted regression (GWR model improved the global regression model with better model goodness-of-fit and higher prediction accuracy. More importantly, the local parameter estimates of variables enabled us to exam spatial variations of the influences of variables on urban growth in Suzhou.

Assessing the Effect of Spatial Proximity on Urban Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo Gomes

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC reacts to demographic pressures, economic trends, or improved transport networks. Urban growth with implications on LUCC patterns can be measured using a diversity of methods. Our study derives from Tobler’s first law of geography: ‘everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant ones’. We identified and measured the influence of neighbouring distance on urban growth from the edge of existing urban areas. For that, we have developed a method, built using the NetLogo software tool, which we called Land-use chAnge and Neighbouring Distance (LAND. We selected Torres Vedras (Portugal to conduct our case study due to its increasing urban development in the past few years. The periods of analysis were 1995–2010, 1995–2007, and 2007–2010. The results have shown the influence and the effect of strong spatial correlation between the proximity of existing artificial surfaces and the emergence of new ones. The understanding of the patterns of urban growth is helpful to plan forward land developments. This method can be used to write guidelines for decision makers to monitor urban expansion and define spatial planning priorities.

Constructing spatialised knowledge on urban poverty : (multiple) dimensions, mapping spaces and claim-making in urban governance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baud, I.; Lemanski, C.; Marx, C.

2015-01-01

Recently, increasing attention is given to poverty issues in urban areas in the Global South. This follows recognition that population growth is shifting to urban areas, as more than half the world population is found in urban areas, which are expected to grow mainly in South Asia and sub-Saharan

Impacts of urban growth and heat waves events on the urban heat island in Bucharest city

Science.gov (United States)

Zoran, Maria A.; Savastru, Roxana S.; Savastru, Dan M.; Dida, Adrian I.

2016-10-01

This study investigated the influences of urban growth and heat waves events on Urban Heat Island in relationship with several biophysical variables in Bucharest metropolitan area of Romania through satellite and in-situ monitoring data. Remote sensing data from Landsat TM/ETM+ and time series MODIS Terra/Aqua sensors have been used to assess urban land cover- temperature interactions over period between 2000 and 2016 years. Vegetation abundances and percent impervious surfaces were derived by means of linear spectral mixture model, and a method for effectively enhancing impervious surface has been developed to accurately examine the urban growth. The land surface temperature (Ts), a key parameter for urban thermal characteristics analysis, was also analyzed in relation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at city level. Based on these parameters, the urban growth, urban heat island effect (UHI) and the relationships of Ts to other biophysical parameters (surface albedo, precipitations, wind intensity and direction) have been analyzed. Results show that in the metropolitan area ratio of impervious surface in Bucharest increased significantly during investigated period, the intensity of urban heat island and heat wave events being most significant. The correlation analyses revealed that, at the pixel-scale, Ts possessed a strong positive correlation with percent impervious surfaces and negative correlation with vegetation abundances at the regional scale, respectively. This analysis provided an integrated research scheme and the findings can be very useful for urban ecosystem modeling.

Procedural modeling of urban layout: population, land use, and road network

OpenAIRE

Lyu, X.; Han, Q.; de Vries, B.

2017-01-01

This paper introduces an urban simulation system generating urban layouts with population, road network and land use layers. The desired urban spatial structure is obtained by generating a population map based on population density models. The road network is generated at two spatial levels corresponding to the road hierarchy. The land use allocation is based on the What If? allocation model. The expected results are urban layouts suitable for academic scenario analysis.

Ecotypic differentiation between urban and rural populations of the grasshopper Chorthippus brunneus relative to climate and habitat fragmentation.

Science.gov (United States)

San Martin Y Gomez, Gilles; Van Dyck, Hans

2012-05-01

Urbanization alters environmental conditions in multiple ways and offers an ecological or evolutionary challenge for organisms to cope with. Urban areas typically have a warmer climate and strongly fragmented herbaceous vegetation; the urban landscape matrix is often assumed to be hostile for many organisms. Here, we addressed the issue of evolutionary differentiation between urban and rural populations of an ectotherm insect, the grasshopper Chorthippus brunneus. We compared mobility-related morphology and climate-related life history traits measured on the first generation offspring of grasshoppers from urban and rural populations reared in a common garden laboratory experiment. We predicted (1) the urban phenotype to be more mobile (i.e., lower mass allocation to the abdomen, longer relative femur and wing lengths) than the rural phenotype; (2) the urban phenotype to be more warm adapted (e.g., higher female body mass); and (3) further evidence of local adaptation in the form of significant interaction effects between landscape of origin and breeding temperature. Both males and females of urban origin had significantly longer relative femur and wing lengths and lower mass allocation to the abdomen (i.e., higher investment in thorax and flight muscles) relative to individuals of rural origin. The results were overall significant but small (2-4%). Body mass and larval growth rate were much higher (+10%) in females of urban origin. For the life history traits, we did not find evidence for significant interaction effects between the landscape of origin and the two breeding temperatures. Our results point to ecotypic differentiation with urbanization for mobility-related morphology and climate-related life history traits. We argue that the warmer urban environment has an indirect effect through longer growth season rather than direct effects on the development.

Economic Growth and Expansion of China’s Urban Land Area: Evidence from Administrative Data and Night Lights, 1993–2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Gibson

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The relationship between economic growth, expansion of urban land area and the broader issue of cultivated land conversion in China has been closely examined for the late 1980s and 1990s. Much less is known about recent urban expansion and if the effects of economic growth on this expansion have changed over time. This paper updates estimates of urban expansion for China and examines the relationship with city economic growth for 1993–2012. To see if patterns are robust to different types of evidence, administrative data on the area of 225 urban cores are compared to estimates of brightly lit areas from remotely sensed night lights. The trend annual expansion rate in lit area is 8% and was significantly faster in the decade to 2002 than in the most recent decade. Expansion is slower according to administrative data, at just 5% per annum, with no change in unconditional expansion rates between decades, while conditional expansion rates have declined. The elasticity of area with respect to city economic output is about 0.3. Over time, expansion of urban land area is becoming less responsive to the growth of the local non-agricultural population.

Urbanisation, urban growth and planning in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Region

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fertner, Christian

pressure. Growth management strategies are necessary to secure future balanced and sustainable development throughout the whole urban region. The analysis of urbanisation and urban growth in peri-urban areas is at the core of this study, including socio-demographic and functional dynamics, land use impacts...... and options for spatial planning. The main case was the metropolitan region of Copenhagen, Denmark. Other cases from Europe and the USA were used as reference studies. The methods included quantitative analyses of register and land use data as well as general case study work to investigate options for spatial...... planning. The study shows that, while the most visible impacts of land use changes can be found at the close urban fringe, many other dynamics have a much longer reach into the rural-urban region. In the Copenhagen metropolitan region, we can observe migration to peri-urban areas and to the urban core...

The impact of rapid population growth, expanding urbanisation, and other factors on development in sub-Saharan Africa: the contrasting responses of Tanzania and Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Huth, M J

1984-01-01

This article analyzes the impact of the twin factors of rapid population growth and expanding urbanization on social and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa and compares policies that have been developed in Tanzania and Kenya in response to these factors. The principal consequences of overpopulation and overurbanization have been economic stagnation and physical and cultural malaise in urban population centers. Between 1960-80, per capita incomes in 19 countries of sub-Saharan Africa grew by less than 1%/year and 15 countries recorded a negative rate of growth in per capita income during the 1970s. Urban populations have increased at at overall rate of 6%/year as sub-Saharan Africans have migrated to cities in search of employment. Few national governments in the region have formulated longterm strategies to deal effectively with this double-faceted development constraint or have integrated new urban populations into the national economy. tanzania's development strategy is focused on the goals of socialism, rural development, and self-reliance. Urban development has remained a residual item in Tanzania's national development process, despite the fact that the urban population increased from 5.7% of the total population in 1967 to 12.7% in 1978 and is projected to comprise 24.7% by the year 2000. In contrast, Kenya, whose proportion of urban population increased from 9% to 15% between 1962 and 1979, has pursued an urban-focused development strategy. The strong urban-rural linkages of the economy have focused migration to the secondary towns. The national development plan includes urban spatial, employment, and investment policies. Although this plan constitutes a good basis for future planning, the magnitude of the urban problem is beyond the capabilities of the central government and requires the development of local capabilities.

Fractal dimension evolution and spatial replacement dynamics of urban growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Yanguang

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► The fractal dimension growth can be modeled by Boltzmann’s equation. ► Boltzmann’s model suggests urban spatial replacement dynamics. ► If the rate of urban growth is too high, periodic oscillations or chaos will arise. ► Chaos is associated with fractals by the fractal dimension evolution model. ► The fractal dimension of urban form implies the space-filling ratio of a city. - Abstract: This paper presents a new perspective of looking at the relation between fractals and chaos by means of cities. Especially, a principle of space filling and spatial replacement is proposed to interpret the fractal dimension of urban form. The fractal dimension evolution of urban growth can be empirically modeled with Boltzmann’s equation. For the normalized data, Boltzmann’s equation is just equivalent to the logistic function. The logistic equation can be transformed into the well-known 1-dimensional logistic map, which is based on a 2-dimensional map suggesting spatial replacement dynamics of city development. The 2-dimensional recurrence relations can be employed to generate the nonlinear dynamical behaviors such as bifurcation and chaos. A discovery is thus made in this article that, for the fractal dimension growth following the logistic curve, the normalized dimension value is the ratio of space filling. If the rate of spatial replacement (urban growth) is too high, the periodic oscillations and chaos will arise. The spatial replacement dynamics can be extended to general replacement dynamics, and bifurcation and chaos mirror a process of complex replacement.

Urban sprawl and growth management - drivers, impacts and responses in selected European and US cities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

2016-01-01

Urban growth management has become a common term to circumscribe strategies and tools to regulate urban land use in metropolitan areas. It is particularly used to counteract negative impacts of urban sprawl but also to frame future urban development. We discuss recent challenges of urban growth...... in 6 European and 2 US American city-regions. The paper compares the urban development focusing on a quantification of drivers and effects of urban growth and a qualitative analysis of the applied urban growth management tools. We build our analysis on findings from the EU-FP6 project PLUREL...

Construction of a new growth references for China based on urban Chinese children: comparison with the WHO growth standards.

Science.gov (United States)

Zong, Xin-Nan; Li, Hui

2013-01-01

Growth references for Chinese children should be updated due to the positive secular growth trends and the progress of the smoothing techniques. Human growth differs among the various ethnic groups, so comparison of the China references with the WHO standards helps to understand such differences. The China references, including weight, length/height, head circumference, weight-for-length/height and body mass index (BMI) aged 0-18 years, were constructed based on 69,760 urban infants and preschool children under 7 years and 24,542 urban school children aged 6-20 years derived from two cross-sectional national surveys. The Cole's LMS method is employed for smoothing the growth curves. The merged data sets resulted in a smooth transition at age 6-7 years and continuity of curves from 0 to 18 years. Varying differences were found on the empirical standard deviation (SD) curves in each indicator at nearly all ages between China and WHO. The most noticeable differences occurred in genders, final height and boundary centiles curves. Chinese boys' weight is strikingly heavier than that of the WHO at age 6-10 years. The height is taller than that of the WHO for boys below 15 years and for girls below 13, but is significantly lower when boys over 15 years and girls over 13. BMI is generally higher than that of the WHO for boys at age 6-16 years but appreciably lower for girls at 3-18 years. The differences between China and WHO are mainly caused by the reference populations of different ethnic backgrounds. For practitioners, the choices of the standards/references depend on the population to be assessed and the purpose of the study. The new China references could be applied to facilitate the standardization assessment of growth and nutrition for Chinese children and adolescents in clinical pediatric and public health.

Urban and rural land use in Puerto Rico

Science.gov (United States)

Sebastian Martinuzzi; William A. Gould; Olga M. Ramos Gonzalez; Maya Quinones; Michael E. Jimenez

2008-01-01

We have developed three land use regions for Puerto Rico: Urban, Suburban, and Rural (Gould et al. 2008; Martinuzzi et al. 2007). These three regions can also be considered urban, densely-populated rural, and sparsely-populated rural or as urban and wildland with a wildland-urban interface. The suburban use is the most dynamic in terms of population growth and land...

Modeling Exponential Population Growth

Science.gov (United States)

McCormick, Bonnie

2009-01-01

The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

Beyond urban penalty and urban sprawl: back to living conditions as the focus of urban health.

Science.gov (United States)

Freudenberg, Nicholas; Galea, Sandro; Vlahov, David

2005-02-01

Researchers have long studied urban health, both to describe the consequences of urban living and to design interventions to promote the health of people living in cities. Two approaches to understanding the impact of cities on health have been dominant, namely, urban health penalty and urban sprawl. The urban penalty approach posits that cities concentrate poor people and expose them to unhealthy physical and social environments. Urban sprawl focuses on the adverse health and environmental effects of urban growth into outlying areas. We propose a model that integrates these approaches and emphasizes urban living conditions as the primary determinant of health. The aim of the model is to move beyond describing the health-related characteristics of various urban populations towards identifying opportunities for intervention. Such a shift in framework enables meaningful comparisons that can inform public health activities at the appropriate level and evaluate their effectiveness in improving the health of urban populations. The model is illustrated with two examples from current urban public health practice.

Do motorways shape urban growth?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick; Hovgesen, Henrik Harder

2005-01-01

results suggest that the motorway most markedly influences the location of non-residential building activities within the city – in favour of locations near the entrance points to/from the motorway network. The development can be explained in part by municipal planning, which in some instances has opened......The paper is an offspring from the Research project Town, Road and Landscape that aims to assess the effect of the Danish motorway network (specifically the last 20 years) on urban growth and interaction patterns. As one of the main interests of the project is the changing urban form...... and the changing character of the roadscape, the impact of the motorway is in part analysed with micro level data, spatial statistics and GIS – to allowing mapping of changing development trends in motorway corridors. The paper presents analysis of the impact of motorway openings on urban form in two Danish...

Population growth and consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Chalkley, K

1997-04-01

The relationship between population growth, resource consumption, and environmental degradation is complex. The rise in "greenhouse gases" that will cause climatic change is clearly due to human activity, and pollutants are often concentrated in densely populated areas. However, even an area with a negative population growth, such as Russia, can experience severe environmental degradation due to poor management. Consumption patterns have the most effect on ozone depletion, while population growth threatens biodiversity of and within species through the destruction of ecosystems. Migration joins population growth and social factors, such as land inequality, as major causes of deforestation, and global demand for water is expected to increase faster than the rate of population growth. Coastal development and over-fishing threaten to deplete the oceans, while soil quality is threatened by inappropriate land use. Estimates of the earth's carrying capacity range from less than 3 billion to more than 44 billion people, indicating how difficult it is to assess this figure. Development efforts throughout the world may lead to human gains that will ultimately be negated by environmental losses. These factors have led to growing support for environmentally sustainable development.

Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient

OpenAIRE

Vangestel, C; Mergeay, Joachim; Dawson, D. A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

2012-01-01

House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierar...

Spatial planning based on urban energy harvesting toward productive urban regions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leduc, Wouter R. W. A.; Van Kann, Ferry M. G.

The industrial revolution and the exploitation of fossil fuels fostered profound changes on transportation systems and infrastructure enabling unprecedented urban growth. Urban regions, which now host the majority of the world's population, resemble a linear metabolism: importing most of their raw

Spatial planning based on urban energy harvesting toward productive urban regions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leduc, W.R.W.A.; Kann, van F.M.G.

2013-01-01

The industrial revolution and the exploitation of fossil fuels fostered profound changes on transportation systems and infrastructure enabling unprecedented urban growth. Urban regions, which now host the majority of the world's population, resemble a linear metabolism: importing most of their raw

A coupled model approach to reduce nonpoint-source pollution resulting from predicted urban growth: A case study in the Ambos Nogales watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Norman, L.M.; Guertin, D.P.; Feller, M.

2008-01-01

The development of new approaches for understanding processes of urban development and their environmental effects, as well as strategies for sustainable management, is essential in expanding metropolitan areas. This study illustrates the potential of linking urban growth and watershed models to identify problem areas and support long-term watershed planning. Sediment is a primary source of nonpoint-source pollution in surface waters. In urban areas, sediment is intermingled with other surface debris in transport. In an effort to forecast the effects of development on surface-water quality, changes predicted in urban areas by the SLEUTH urban growth model were applied in the context of erosion-sedimentation models (Universal Soil Loss Equation and Spatially Explicit Delivery Models). The models are used to simulate the effect of excluding hot-spot areas of erosion and sedimentation from future urban growth and to predict the impacts of alternative erosion-control scenarios. Ambos Nogales, meaning 'both Nogaleses,' is a name commonly used for the twin border cities of Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico. The Ambos Nogales watershed has experienced a decrease in water quality as a result of urban development in the twin-city area. Population growth rates in Ambos Nogales are high and the resources set in place to accommodate the rapid population influx will soon become overburdened. Because of its remote location and binational governance, monitoring and planning across the border is compromised. One scenario described in this research portrays an improvement in water quality through the identification of high-risk areas using models that simulate their protection from development and replanting with native grasses, while permitting the predicted and inevitable growth elsewhere. This is meant to add to the body of knowledge about forecasting the impact potential of urbanization on sediment delivery to streams for sustainable development, which can be

Quantifying urban growth patterns in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes and time series spatial metrics

Science.gov (United States)

Lepczyk, Christopher A.; Miura, Tomoaki; Fox, Jefferson M.

2018-01-01

Urbanization has been driven by various social, economic, and political factors around the world for centuries. Because urbanization continues unabated in many places, it is crucial to understand patterns of urbanization and their potential ecological and environmental impacts. Given this need, the objectives of our study were to quantify urban growth rates, growth modes, and resultant changes in the landscape pattern of urbanization in Hanoi, Vietnam from 1993 to 2010 and to evaluate the extent to which the process of urban growth in Hanoi conformed to the diffusion-coalescence theory. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamics of the built-up land in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes, spatial metrics, and a gradient approach. Urbanization was most pronounced in the periods of 2001–2006 and 2006–2010 at a distance of 10 to 35 km around the urban center. Over the 17 year period urban expansion in Hanoi was dominated by infilling and edge expansion growth modes. Our findings support the diffusion-coalescence theory of urbanization. The shift of the urban growth areas over time and the dynamic nature of the spatial metrics revealed important information about our understanding of the urban growth process and cycle. Furthermore, our findings can be used to evaluate urban planning policies and aid in urbanization issues in rapidly urbanizing countries. PMID:29734346

Quantifying urban growth patterns in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes and time series spatial metrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Nong, Duong H; Lepczyk, Christopher A; Miura, Tomoaki; Fox, Jefferson M

2018-01-01

Urbanization has been driven by various social, economic, and political factors around the world for centuries. Because urbanization continues unabated in many places, it is crucial to understand patterns of urbanization and their potential ecological and environmental impacts. Given this need, the objectives of our study were to quantify urban growth rates, growth modes, and resultant changes in the landscape pattern of urbanization in Hanoi, Vietnam from 1993 to 2010 and to evaluate the extent to which the process of urban growth in Hanoi conformed to the diffusion-coalescence theory. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamics of the built-up land in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes, spatial metrics, and a gradient approach. Urbanization was most pronounced in the periods of 2001-2006 and 2006-2010 at a distance of 10 to 35 km around the urban center. Over the 17 year period urban expansion in Hanoi was dominated by infilling and edge expansion growth modes. Our findings support the diffusion-coalescence theory of urbanization. The shift of the urban growth areas over time and the dynamic nature of the spatial metrics revealed important information about our understanding of the urban growth process and cycle. Furthermore, our findings can be used to evaluate urban planning policies and aid in urbanization issues in rapidly urbanizing countries.

The less healthy urban population: income-related health inequality in China

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Health inequality has been recognized as a problem all over the world. In China, the poor usually have less access to healthcare than the better-off, despite having higher levels of need. Since the proportion of the Chinese population living in urban areas increased tremendously with the urbanization movements, attention has been paid to the association between urban/rural residence and population health. It is important to understand the variation in health across income groups, and in particular to take into account the effects of urban/rural residence on the degree of income-related health inequalities. Methods This paper empirically assesses the magnitude of rural/urban disparities in income-related adult health status, i.e., self-assessed health (SAH) and physical activity limitation, using Concentration Indices. It then uses decomposition methods to unravel the causes of inequalities and their variations across urban and rural populations. Data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) 2006 are used. Results The study finds that the poor are less likely to report their health status as “excellent or good” and are more likely to have physical activity limitation. Such inequality is more pronounced for the urban population than for the rural population. Results from the decomposition analysis suggest that, for the urban population, 76.47 per cent to 79.07 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic/socioeconomic-related factors, among which income, job status and educational level are the most important factors. For the rural population, 48.19 per cent to 77.78 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic factors. Income and educational attainment appear to have a prominent influence on inequality. Conclusion The findings suggest that policy targeting the poor, especially the urban poor, is needed in order to reduce health inequality. PMID:22989200

The less healthy urban population: income-related health inequality in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Wei; Kanavos, Panos

2012-09-18

Health inequality has been recognized as a problem all over the world. In China, the poor usually have less access to healthcare than the better-off, despite having higher levels of need. Since the proportion of the Chinese population living in urban areas increased tremendously with the urbanization movements, attention has been paid to the association between urban/rural residence and population health. It is important to understand the variation in health across income groups, and in particular to take into account the effects of urban/rural residence on the degree of income-related health inequalities. This paper empirically assesses the magnitude of rural/urban disparities in income-related adult health status, i.e., self-assessed health (SAH) and physical activity limitation, using Concentration Indices. It then uses decomposition methods to unravel the causes of inequalities and their variations across urban and rural populations. Data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) 2006 are used. The study finds that the poor are less likely to report their health status as "excellent or good" and are more likely to have physical activity limitation. Such inequality is more pronounced for the urban population than for the rural population. Results from the decomposition analysis suggest that, for the urban population, 76.47 per cent to 79.07 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic/socioeconomic-related factors, among which income, job status and educational level are the most important factors. For the rural population, 48.19 per cent to 77.78 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic factors. Income and educational attainment appear to have a prominent influence on inequality. The findings suggest that policy targeting the poor, especially the urban poor, is needed in order to reduce health inequality.

The less healthy urban population: income-related health inequality in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Wei

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Health inequality has been recognized as a problem all over the world. In China, the poor usually have less access to healthcare than the better-off, despite having higher levels of need. Since the proportion of the Chinese population living in urban areas increased tremendously with the urbanization movements, attention has been paid to the association between urban/rural residence and population health. It is important to understand the variation in health across income groups, and in particular to take into account the effects of urban/rural residence on the degree of income-related health inequalities. Methods This paper empirically assesses the magnitude of rural/urban disparities in income-related adult health status, i.e., self-assessed health (SAH and physical activity limitation, using Concentration Indices. It then uses decomposition methods to unravel the causes of inequalities and their variations across urban and rural populations. Data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS 2006 are used. Results The study finds that the poor are less likely to report their health status as “excellent or good” and are more likely to have physical activity limitation. Such inequality is more pronounced for the urban population than for the rural population. Results from the decomposition analysis suggest that, for the urban population, 76.47 per cent to 79.07 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic/socioeconomic-related factors, among which income, job status and educational level are the most important factors. For the rural population, 48.19 per cent to 77.78 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic factors. Income and educational attainment appear to have a prominent influence on inequality. Conclusion The findings suggest that policy targeting the poor, especially the urban poor, is needed in order to reduce health inequality.

Strategies for sustainable urban development and urban-rural linkages

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nilsson, K.; Sick Nielsen, T.; Aalbers, C.B.E.M.; Bell, S.; Boitier, B.; Chery, J.P.; Fertner, C.; Groschowski, M.; Haase, D.; Loibl, W.; Pauleit, S.; Pintar, M.; Piorr, A.; Ravetz, J.; Ristimäki, M.; Rounsevell, M.; Tosics, I.; Westerink, J.; Zasada, I.

2014-01-01

An important driving force behind urban expansion is the growth of the urban population. But for Europe, this is not a sufficient explanation. The major trend is that European cities have become much less compact. Since the mid-1950s European cities have expanded on average by 78%, whereas the

Perspectives on population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

1996-09-01

Assume that everyone has the same information on population growth. There are many different opinions on what that information means and what should be done about it. Some people worry about current rates of growth, especially in the context of growing per capita consumption, and believe that all reasonable steps should be taken to reduce rates and stabilize population size. Others believe that growing populations can be accommodated by reducing consumption in rich countries, that technological progress will supply the new resources needed, that the development needed to support a larger population can be sustained, that large population size fosters prosperity, or that birth rates are falling and current growth is just temporary. These are all valid positions worthy of at least debate. Interest groups commonly acknowledgement population growth as a significant issue, but offer no response to it. Sometimes the issue goes unrecognized because it conflicts with a more highly valued personal agenda item. Finally, some responses come from confusion and anger rather than reasoning or self-interest. The proponents of these latter arguments bring nothing constructive to the debate.

Human population, urban settlement patterns and their impact on Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kabaria Caroline W

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The efficient allocation of financial resources for malaria control and the optimal distribution of appropriate interventions require accurate information on the geographic distribution of malaria risk and of the human populations it affects. Low population densities in rural areas and high population densities in urban areas can influence malaria transmission substantially. Here, the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP global database of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR surveys, medical intelligence and contemporary population surfaces are utilized to explore these relationships and other issues involved in combining malaria risk maps with those of human population distribution in order to define populations at risk more accurately. Methods First, an existing population surface was examined to determine if it was sufficiently detailed to be used reliably as a mask to identify areas of very low and very high population density as malaria free regions. Second, the potential of international travel and health guidelines (ITHGs for identifying malaria free cities was examined. Third, the differences in PfPR values between surveys conducted in author-defined rural and urban areas were examined. Fourth, the ability of various global urban extent maps to reliably discriminate these author-based classifications of urban and rural in the PfPR database was investigated. Finally, the urban map that most accurately replicated the author-based classifications was analysed to examine the effects of urban classifications on PfPR values across the entire MAP database. Results Masks of zero population density excluded many non-zero PfPR surveys, indicating that the population surface was not detailed enough to define areas of zero transmission resulting from low population densities. In contrast, the ITHGs enabled the identification and mapping of 53 malaria free urban areas within endemic countries. Comparison of PfPR survey results showed

Decomposing the causes of socioeconomic-related health inequality among urban and rural populations in China: a new decomposition approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Jiaoli; Coyte, Peter C; Zhao, Hongzhong

2017-07-18

In recent decades, China has experienced tremendous economic growth and also witnessed growing socioeconomic-related health inequality. The study aims to explore the potential causes of socioeconomic-related health inequality in urban and rural areas of China over the past two decades. This study used six waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) from 1991 to 2006. The recentered influence function (RIF) regression decomposition method was employed to decompose socioeconomic-related health inequality in China. Health status was derived from self-rated health (SRH) scores. The analyses were conducted on urban and rural samples separately. We found that the average level of health status declined from 1989 to 2006 for both urban and rural populations. Average health scores were greater for the rural population compared with those for the urban population. We also found that there exists pro-rich health inequality in China. While income and secondary education were the main factors to reduce health inequality, older people, unhealthy lifestyles and a poor home environment increased inequality. Health insurance had the opposite effects on health inequality for urban and rural populations, resulting in lower inequality for urban populations and higher inequality for their rural counterparts. These findings suggest that an effective way to reduce socioeconomic-related health inequality is not only to increase income and improve access to health care services, but also to focus on improvements in the lifestyles and the home environment. Specifically, for rural populations, it is particularly important to improve the design of health insurance and implement a more comprehensive insurance package that can effectively target the rural poor. Moreover, it is necessary to comprehensively promote the flush toilets and tap water in rural areas. For urban populations, in addition to promoting universal secondary education, healthy lifestyles should be promoted

Population Growth and Sprawl on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota

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Campbell, R. L.

2006-05-01

The most important impact on global land cover is human use and development. With the recent population growth occurring on the reservations in South Dakota, especially Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, the towns and agricultural areas of the reservation are undergoing a change. Although urban sprawl certainly is not a consideration on the reservations, the population explosion currently underway has seen a subsequent increase in rural sprawl. In this case, rural sprawl is defined as exponential population growth and geographic expansion of remote reservation communities. Using satellite imagery and software to render these images is a cost effective way to investigate this growth. Also, using remotely sensed data and a GIS (geographic information system) package can address different issues that concern people and communities in and around the Pine Ridge area. The objective of my project is to observe land use change on the Pine Ridge Indian reservation using Geographic Information Systems such as; ARCGis 9, ENVI, and Multispec, along with Landsat 4, 5, and 7 imagery over the past 20 years.

Particle formation and growth at five rural and urban sites

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, C.-H.; Evans, G. J.; McGuire, M. L.; Chang, R. Y.-W.; Abbatt, J. P. D.; Zeromskiene, K.; Mozurkewich, M.; Li, S.-M.; Leaitch, W. R.

2010-08-01

Ultrafine particle (UFP) number and size distributions were simultaneously measured at five urban and rural sites during the summer of 2007 in Ontario, Canada as part of the Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met 2007). Particle formation and growth events at these five sites were classified based on their strength and persistence as well as the variation in geometric mean diameter. Regional nucleation and growth events and local short-lived strong nucleation events were frequently observed at the near-border rural sites, upwind of industrial sources. Surprisingly, the particle number concentrations at one of these sites were higher than the concentrations at a downtown site in a major city, despite its high traffic density. Regional nucleation and growth events were favored during intense solar irradiance and in less polluted cooler drier air. The most distinctive regional particle nucleation and growth event during the campaign was observed simultaneously at all five sites, which were up to 350 km apart. Although the ultrafine particle concentrations and size distributions generally were spatially heterogeneous across the region, a more uniform spatial distribution of UFP across the five areas was observed during this regional nucleation event. Thus, nucleation events can cover large regions, contributing to the burden of UFP in cities and potentially to the associated health impacts on urban populations. Local short-lived nucleation events at the three near-border sites during this summer three-week campaign were associated with high SO2, which likely originated from US and Canadian industrial sources. Hence, particle formation in southwestern Ontario appears to often be related to anthropogenic gaseous emissions but biogenic emissions at times also contribute. Longer-term studies are needed to help resolve the relative contributions of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions to nucleation and growth in this region.

Some structural aspects of urbanization in Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Rafiq, M; Hailemariam, A

1987-07-01

This article studies the emerging patterns of urbanization in Ethiopia. Over the period from 1967-1984, a number of structural changes have occurred which are likely to play a dominant role in the future urban growth in Ethiopia. In spite of its long history of settled population, Ethiopia did not witness sustained growth of urban centers. Ethiopia is 1 of the least urbanized areas in the Third World. A 3rd aspect of urbanization in Ethiopia is the wide range of regional differentials in the level of urbanization. Most of the urban population is concentrated in 2 administrative regions--Shoa and Eritrea. A more balanced urban growth may, inter alia, involve a better spread in terms of higher education, industrialization, provision of health and social services, and the development of communication and commercial infrastructure. Another striking feature of urbanization in Ethiopia is that growth has not been disproportionately concentrated in the largest urban centers. The largest urban centers have not assumed an inordinately higher level of primacy. The basic form of the curve depicting the relationship between the size of a locality and its rank has remained unchanged over the period. The post-revolution land reforms and the new socioeconomic structure emerging from reorganization of the society appear to have a rural-urban migration inhibiting effect. Some of the country's regional differentials may be associated with environmental factors.

EKOLOGI DAERAH URBAN (PERKOTAAN DAN GANGGUAN KESEHATAN JIWA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunita Satya Pratiwi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available City is a form of ecological systems are complex, dynamic, and dominated by humans. In this case, the city is considered as an ecosystem that is an artificial environment, the result of a process of interaction between man and man and between man and his environment. The growth of urban population in the world, especially in Indonesia is relatively high, will continue with a high acceleration. In the period 2005-2030 the number of the world's urban population is expected to increase 56%, Asia up 71%, and up 74% in Indonesia. In 2005 the Indonesian population living in urban areas reached more than 107.9 million people, where 20% of whom were in Greater Jabodetabek (UNDP and ADB, 2006. Rate of population growth is not accompanied by the growth of the region, will result in overcrowding. This causes an imbalance of urban ecosystems. In addition to the emergence of poverty, unemployment, crime, uneven development, urbanization, suspected to be the cause of many community members are prone to stress and anxiety that lead to mental disorders. It is supported by a number of research results that show the prevalence trend of population show symptoms of mental health disorders in relatively more in urban than in rural areas.

The Conundrum of Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization and the Urban Heat Island Effect

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Quattrochi, Dale A.

2011-01-01

The twenty-first century is the first urban century according to the United Nations Development Program. The focus on cities reflects awareness of the growing percentage of the world's population that lives in urban areas. In 2000, approximately 3 billion people representing about 40% of the global population resided in urban areas. The United Nations estimates that by 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in urban areas. As a consequence, the number of megacities (those cities with populations of 10 million inhabitants or more) will increase by 100 by 2025. Thus, there is a critical need to understand the spatial growth of urban areas and what the impacts are on the environment. Moreover, there is a critical need to assess how under global climate change, cities will affect the local, regional, and even global climate. As urban areas increase in size, it is anticipated there will be a concomitant growth of the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI), and the attributes that are related to its spatial and temporal dynamics. Therefore, how climate change, including the dynamics of the UHI, will affect the urban environment, must be explored to help mitigate potential impacts on the environment (e.g., air quality, heat stress, vectorborne disease) and on human health and well being, to develop adaptation schemes to cope with these impacts.

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird

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Pickens, Bradley A.; Marcus, Jeffrey F.; Carpenter, John P.; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J.; Collazo, Jaime A.

2017-01-01

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010–2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation.

Urban Landscape Perspectives

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Frederick Steiner

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Cities present significant opportunities for new landscape perspectives that can help inform conservation and development decisions. Early in the twenty-first century, the majority of the planet’s population became urban as more people lived in city-regions for the first time in our history. As the global population increases, so does this urbanization. The environmental challenges of population and urban growth are profound. Landscapes represent a synthesis of natural and cultural processes. Cities are certainly cultural phenomena. Historically, cities provided refuge from nature. The expanding field of urban ecology, coupled with landscape ecology, can enhance how the dual natural and cultural dimensions of landscapes in cities are understood. Furthermore, concepts such as ecosystem services and green infrastructure are proving useful for urban landscape planning and design. Examples from Dayton, Ohio; Brooklyn, New York; and Austin, Texas are presented.

Population growth, poverty and health.

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Kibirige, J S

1997-07-01

One of the most popular explanations for the many problems that face Africa is population growth. Africa's population has doubled since 1960. Africa has the highest fertility rate in the world and the rate of population growth is higher than in any other region. At the same time, Africa faces a social and economic situation that is viewed by many as alarming. Among the problems that devastate Africa is that of persistent poor health. Africa has lower life expectancy, higher mortality rates and is affected by more disease and illness conditions than any other region. Focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, this paper examines the relationship between population growth, poverty and poor health. While most analyses have focused on population growth as an original cause of poverty and underdevelopment, this paper argues that while both population growth and poor health play a significant role in exacerbating the problem of poverty, they are themselves primary consequences of poverty rather than its cause.

Inter-Regional Spillovers and Urban-Rural Disparity in U.S. Employment Growth

OpenAIRE

Hisamitsu Saito; Munisamy Gopinath; JunJie Wu

2011-01-01

A wide urban-rural disparity is observed in employment growth in the United States. For example, employment growth averaged 2.1 percent in urban counties during 1998-2007, compared with just 1 percent in rural counties. In this study, we examine the sources of U.S. employment growth using the county-level industry data. From an analytical labor-market model, we derive equilibrium employment growth as a function of growth in neighborhood characteristics and initial conditions such as accumulat...

Tracking urban activity growth globally with big location data.

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Daggitt, Matthew L; Noulas, Anastasios; Shaw, Blake; Mascolo, Cecilia

2016-04-01

In recent decades, the world has experienced rates of urban growth unparalleled in any other period of history and this growth is shaping the environment in which an increasing proportion of us live. In this paper, we use a longitudinal dataset from Foursquare, a location-based social network, to analyse urban growth across 100 major cities worldwide. Initially, we explore how urban growth differs in cities across the world. We show that there exists a strong spatial correlation, with nearby pairs of cities more likely to share similar growth profiles than remote pairs of cities. Subsequently, we investigate how growth varies inside cities and demonstrate that, given the existing local density of places, higher-than-expected growth is highly localized while lower-than-expected growth is more diffuse. Finally, we attempt to use the dataset to characterize competition between new and existing venues. By defining a measure based on the change in throughput of a venue before and after the opening of a new nearby venue, we demonstrate which venue types have a positive effect on venues of the same type and which have a negative effect. For example, our analysis confirms the hypothesis that there is large degree of competition between bookstores, in the sense that existing bookstores normally experience a notable drop in footfall after a new bookstore opens nearby. Other place types, such as museums, are shown to have a cooperative effect and their presence fosters higher traffic volumes to nearby places of the same type.

Urban Teens: Trauma, Posttraumatic Growth, and Emotional Distress among Female Adolescents

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Ickovics, Jeanette R.; Meade, Christina S.; Kershaw, Trace S.; Milan, Stephanie; Lewis, Jessica B.; Ethier, Kathleen A.

2006-01-01

Urban teens face many traumas, with implications for potential growth and distress. This study examined traumatic events, posttraumatic growth, and emotional distress over 18 months among urban adolescent girls (N = 328). Objectives were to (a) describe types of traumatic events, (b) determine how type and timing of events relate to profiles of…

Trends in mortality and biological stress in a medieval polish urban population.

Science.gov (United States)

Betsinger, Tracy K; DeWitte, Sharon

2017-12-01

Urbanization in pre-modern populations may have had a variety of consequences related to population crowding. However, research on the effects of urbanization have provided inconsistent results regarding the biological impact of this transition on human populations. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that urbanization caused an increase in overall biological stress in a medieval (10th-13th centuries AD) Polish population. A human skeletal sample (n=164) was examined for the presence of porotic hyperostosis, cribra orbitalia, linear enamel hypoplasia, periosteal reaction, and specific infectious diseases. Prevalence rates were compared among three temporal samples: initial urbanization, early urbanization, and later urbanization. Results indicate no significant trends for any of the pathological conditions. Cox proportional hazards analyses, however, revealed a significant increase in the risk of death over time, which supports the hypothesis. These results reflect the necessity of using multiple analyses to address bioarchaeological questions. The lack of significant results from skeletal indicators may be due to an earlier urbanization trend in the population. This study illustrates that the association of urbanization with elevated biological stress is complicated and dependent on various factors, including culture and time period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The preliminary study of urbanization, fossil fuels consumptions and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The results show that during 1947 to 2008, both urban population and urban area increased to 1500%. During 1990 to 2008, the percentage growth in vehicles is double than that of population growth during this time period. During 1980 to 2007 the consumption of oil and petrol, natural gas and coal increased to 219%, ...

An allometric scaling relation based on logistic growth of cities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Yanguang

2014-01-01

Highlights: • An allometric scaling based on logistic process can be used to model urban growth. • The traditional allometry is based on exponential growth instead of logistic growth. • The exponential allometry represents a local scaling of urban growth. • The logistic allometry represents a global scaling of urban growth. • The exponential allometry is an approximation relation of the logistic allometry. - Abstract: The relationships between urban area and population size have been empirically demonstrated to follow the scaling law of allometric growth. This allometric scaling is based on exponential growth of city size and can be termed “exponential allometry”, which is associated with the concepts of fractals. However, both city population and urban area comply with the course of logistic growth rather than exponential growth. In this paper, I will present a new allometric scaling based on logistic growth to solve the above mentioned problem. The logistic growth is a process of replacement dynamics. Defining a pair of replacement quotients as new measurements, which are functions of urban area and population, we can derive an allometric scaling relation from the logistic processes of urban growth, which can be termed “logistic allometry”. The exponential allometric relation between urban area and population is the approximate expression of the logistic allometric equation when the city size is not large enough. The proper range of the allometric scaling exponent value is reconsidered through the logistic process. Then, a medium-sized city of Henan Province, China, is employed as an example to validate the new allometric relation. The logistic allometry is helpful for further understanding the fractal property and self-organized process of urban evolution in the right perspective

Exploitation of geospatial techniques for monitoring metropolitan population growth and classification of landcover features

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Almas, A.S.; Rahim, C.A.

2006-01-01

The present research relates to the exploitation of Remote Sensing and GIS techniques for studying the metropolitan expansion and land use/ landcover classification of Lahore, the second largest city of Pakistan where urbanization is taking place at a striking rate with inadequate development of the requisite infrastructure. Such sprawl gives rise to the congestion, pollution and commuting time issues. The metropolitan expansion, based on growth direction and distance from the city centre, was observed for a period of about thirty years. The classification of the complex spatial assemblage of urban environment and its expanding precincts was done using the temporally spaced satellite images geo-referenced to a common coordinate system and census data. Spatial categorization of urban landscape involving densely populated residential areas, sparsely inhibited regions, bare soil patches, water bodies, vegetation, Parks, and mixed features was done with the help of satellite images. Resultantly, remote sensing and GIS techniques were found very efficient and effective for studying the metropolitan growth patterns along with the classification of urban features into prominent categories. In addition, census data augments the usefulness of spatial techniques for carrying out such studies. (author)

Strategies for Low-Carbon Green Growth and Urban Management in Korea

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Jichung Yang

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: National policies and strategies for low-carbon green growth in Korea are reviewed in this study. Providing standards and guidelines for urban comprehensive planning and management plans is necessary so that the series of plans can deal with possible effects from climate changes. Urban planning guidelines for management and improvements to achieve low carbon green growth were set up and implemented, focusing on institutional and regulatory foundations. These deal with climate change influences on urban planning, reduction of green house gas emissions and elevation of energy efficiency based on plans of land use units. In the case of Seoul city, transit-oriented compact development, public transportation-oriented structure, green space expansion, and pleasant living spaces are implemented in relation to urban structure and land use. We should suggest systematic and comprehensive countermeasures against greenhouse gas emissions and climate changes in terms of spatial structure, transportation systems, natural resource conservation, environment management, energy and open spaces. For the Seoul mega-city, plans show the capabilities of the policy department including many policy tools. Reflecting smart city, ubiquitous city, and U-Eco city concepts and human behavior, we should move towards increasing efficiency and maintaining sustainable economic growth. KEYWORDS: Low-carbon green growth, urban management, Korea, Seoul

Urbanization and the wealth of nations.

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Bloom, David E; Canning, David; Fink, Günther

2008-02-08

The proportion of a country's population living in urban areas is highly correlated with its level of income. Urban areas offer economies of scale and richer market structures, and there is strong evidence that workers in urban areas are individually more productive, and earn more, than rural workers. However, rapid urbanization is also associated with crowding, environmental degradation, and other impediments to productivity. Overall, we find no evidence that the level of urbanization affects the rate of economic growth. Our findings weaken the rationale for either encouraging or discouraging urbanization as part of a strategy for economic growth.

Contrasting patterns of urban expansion in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia between 1992 and 2009.

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Alvarez-Berríos, Nora L; Parés-Ramos, Isabel K; Aide, T Mitchell

2013-02-01

The global urban population is increasing rapidly, but patterns of urban expansion differ greatly among countries. Urban transition theory predicts that the shift from low to high urbanization depends on a country's history and level of economic development. This study describes urban expansion in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia between 1992 and 2009. Urban dynamics were analyzed by combining nighttime lights and census data from 4032 municipalities. High-lit areas (>52-63 pixel values) were correlated with urban populations across municipalities and years (R (2) > 0.90). Analyses showed that between 1992 and 2009 Bolivia and Ecuador had rapid population growth and rapidly increasing high-lit areas, while Peru and Colombia had lower rates of population growth and urbanization (i.e., expansion of high-lit areas). We demonstrate how nighttime lights can be a useful tool, providing a homogeneous platform for multi-scale analyses of urban growth.

[State of the world population, 1986].

Science.gov (United States)

1987-01-01

The majority of the world population will soon reside in urban areas. At present, over 40% of the world's people are urban, and 50% will be urban soon after the year 2000. The proportion urban in developed countries has exceeded 50% since the mid-20th century, and in developing countries this level will be reached in the 1st quarter of the next century. Developing countries in Asia and Africa have less than 30% of their population urban. While over 70% of Latin America's population is urban. Within the next 50 years, the predominantly rural character of the developing countries will disappear forever. Currently the majority of the world's urban population lives in developing countries. In 1970, 695 million urban dwellers were in developed countries vs. 666 million in developing countries, but by 1985, there were only 849 million urban dwellers in developed countries vs. 1164 million in developing countries. By the year 2025, there will be nearly 4 times as many urban dwellers in developing countries. An increasing proportion of the urban population will reside in the largest cities. Around 2025, almost 30% of the urban population in developing countries will live in cities of over 4 million. Around 2000 there will be 5 cities of 15 million or more, 3 of them in developing countries. The proportion of the 20 largest cities in developing countries will increase from 9 in 1970 to 16 in 2000. The close relationship between city size and economic development that existed until the recent past is disappearing. It is possible that the very largest cities will no longer be at the center of international political and economic networks. Many developing countries will have to develop plans for cities of sizes never imagined in the developed countries of today. High rates of population increase in the developing countries are an inseparable aspect of their urbanization. Growth of the urban population in developing countries will continue to be rapid until well into the 21st

Population genetics, community of parasites, and resistance to rodenticides in an urban brown rat (Rattus norvegicus) population.

Science.gov (United States)

Desvars-Larrive, Amélie; Pascal, Michel; Gasqui, Patrick; Cosson, Jean-François; Benoît, Etienne; Lattard, Virginie; Crespin, Laurent; Lorvelec, Olivier; Pisanu, Benoît; Teynié, Alexandre; Vayssier-Taussat, Muriel; Bonnet, Sarah; Marianneau, Philippe; Lacôte, Sandra; Bourhy, Pascale; Berny, Philippe; Pavio, Nicole; Le Poder, Sophie; Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle; Jourdain, Elsa; Hammed, Abdessalem; Fourel, Isabelle; Chikh, Farid; Vourc'h, Gwenaël

2017-01-01

Brown rats are one of the most widespread urban species worldwide. Despite the nuisances they induce and their potential role as a zoonotic reservoir, knowledge on urban rat populations remains scarce. The main purpose of this study was to characterize an urban brown rat population from Chanteraines park (Hauts-de-Seine, France), with regards to haematology, population genetics, immunogenic diversity, resistance to anticoagulant rodenticides, and community of parasites. Haematological parameters were measured. Population genetics was investigated using 13 unlinked microsatellite loci. Immunogenic diversity was assessed for Mhc-Drb. Frequency of the Y139F mutation (conferring resistance to rodenticides) and two linked microsatellites were studied, concurrently with the presence of anticoagulant residues in the liver. Combination of microscopy and molecular methods were used to investigate the occurrence of 25 parasites. Statistical approaches were used to explore multiple parasite relationships and model parasite occurrence. Eighty-six rats were caught. The first haematological data for a wild urban R. norvegicus population was reported. Genetic results suggested high genetic diversity and connectivity between Chanteraines rats and surrounding population(s). We found a high prevalence (55.8%) of the mutation Y139F and presence of rodenticide residues in 47.7% of the sampled individuals. The parasite species richness was high (16). Seven potential zoonotic pathogens were identified, together with a surprisingly high diversity of Leptospira species (4). Chanteraines rat population is not closed, allowing gene flow and making eradication programs challenging, particularly because rodenticide resistance is highly prevalent. Parasitological results showed that co-infection is more a rule than an exception. Furthermore, the presence of several potential zoonotic pathogens, of which four Leptospira species, in this urban rat population raised its role in the maintenance

Thermodynamics of urban population flows.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernando, A; Plastino, A

2012-12-01

Orderliness, reflected via mathematical laws, is encountered in different frameworks involving social groups. Here we show that a thermodynamics can be constructed that macroscopically describes urban population flows. Microscopic dynamic equations and simulations with random walkers underlie the macroscopic approach. Our results might be regarded, via suitable analogies, as a step towards building an explicit social thermodynamics.

Land Cover Change and Remote Sensing in the Classroom: An Exercise to Study Urban Growth

Science.gov (United States)

Delahunty, Tina; Lewis-Gonzales, Sarah; Phelps, Jack; Sawicki, Ben; Roberts, Charles; Carpenter, Penny

2012-01-01

The processes and implications of urban growth are studied in a variety of disciplines as urban growth affects both the physical and human landscape. Remote sensing methods provide ways to visualize and mathematically represent urban growth; and resultant land cover change data enable both quantitative and qualitative analysis. This article helps…

"A minimum of urbanism and a maximum of ruralism": the Cuban experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Gugler, J

1980-01-01

The case of Cuba provides social scientists with reasonably good information on urbanization policies and their implementation in 1 developing country committed to socialism. The demographic context is considered, and Cuban efforts to eliminate the rural-urban contradiction and to redefine the role of Havana are described. The impact of these policies is analyzed in terms of available data on urbanization patterns since January 1959 when the revolutionaries marched into Havana. Prerevolutionary urbanization trends are considered. Fertility in Cuba has declined simultaneously with mortality and even more rapidly. Projections assume a 1.85% annual growth rate, resulting in a population of nearly 15 million by the year 2000. Any estimate regarding the future trend in population growth must depend on prognosis of general living conditions and of specific government policies regarding contraception, abortion, female labor force participation, and child care facilities. If population growth in Cuba has been substantial, but less dramatic than that of many other developing countries, urban growth presents a similar picture. Cuba's highest rate of growth of the population living in urban centers with a population over 20,000, in any intercensal period during the 20th century, was 4.1%/year for 1943-1953. It dropped to 3.0% in the 1953-1970 period. Government policies achieved a measure of success in stemming the tide of rural-urban migration, but the aims of the revolutionary leadership went further. The objective was for urban dwellers to be involved in agriculture, and the living standards of the rural population were to be raised to approximate those of city dwellers. The goal of "urbanizing" the countryside found expression in a program designed to construct new small towns which could more easily be provided with services. A slowdown in the growth of Havana, and the concomitant weakening of its dominant position, was intended by the revolutionary leadership. Offical

[Experiences of the urbanization process in Venezuela].

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez Tirado, N

1985-01-01

The process of urbanization and urban growth in relation to economic development in Venezuela is analyzed. Four periods are considered: the period prior to the discovery of oil in Venezuela, which ended in the early 1940s; from the 1940s to the early 1970s; from the 1970s to 1983; and the present. Information is provided for the period 1936-1981 on total and urban population growth and on the size and number of urban centers.

[Population in the northern border area. Urban dynamism and binational interrelation].

Science.gov (United States)

Ham Chande, R

1988-01-01

The 3300 km border between Mexico and the US constitutes the geopolitical separation between an underdeveloped country on the 1 hand and 1 of the most technologically and economically powerful countries in the world on the other. The border region is characterized by the contrasts on either side of the border and by the strong interrelation between both sides. Vast streams of persons, merchandise, money, services, communications, and cultural influences flow from 1 side to the other. The border region as a seat of population has a recent history. The border was defined in near current form only in the mid-19th century, when the expansionist tendencies of the US encountered a vast area of very sparse population. In 1900, the principal localities of the border zone had only about 39,000 inhabitants, of whom fewer than 5000 lived west of Ciudad Juarez. Between 1910-20, the population of the border region increased from 53,000 to 96,000 as a result of migrants fleeing the ravages of the revolution. The population of the border region was estimated at 3.826 million in 1988, resulting from rates of growth above Mexico's national average. Settlement in the area has depended on events and conditions in Mexico and on such US occurrences as Prohibition, the Great Depression, the 2nd World War, the Bracero program, and the Program of Border Industrialization. 82% of the border population lives in urban zones, partly because of lack of water. 80% of the urban population is concentrated in 6 cities, Juarez, Tijuana, Mexicali, Nuevo Laredo, Reynosa, and Matamoros. Much of the population of the 6 cities is composed of persons born elsewhere. The border area also has a large floating population of undocumented migrants in transit to or from the US. The high rates of urbanization and of binational interaction are reflected in demographic dynamics. In 1979, 71% of women in union in the border area vs 54% in the rest of Mexico had used contraception, and the infant mortality rate was

Analyzing the Effects of Spatial Interaction among City Clusters on Urban Growth—Case of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ronghui Tan

2016-08-01

Full Text Available For the past two decades, China’s urbanization has attracted increasing attention from scholars around the world. Numerous insightful studies have attempted to determine the socioeconomic causes of the rapid urban growth in Chinese cities. However, most of these studies regarded each city as a single entity, with few considering inter-city relationships. The present study uses a gravity-based model to measure the spatial interaction among city clusters in the Wuhan urban agglomeration (WUA, which is one of China’s most rapidly urbanizing regions. The effects of spatial interaction on urban growth area were also analyzed. Empirical results indicate that, similar to urban population or employment in secondary and tertiary industries in the WUA from 2000 to 2005, the spatial interaction among city clusters is one of the main drivers of urban growth. In fact, this study finds the effects of spatial interaction as the only socioeconomic factor that affected the spatial expansion from 2005 to 2010. This finding suggests that population migration and information and commodity flows showed greater influence than the socioeconomic drivers of each city did on promoting urbanization in the WUA during this period. We thus argue that spatial interaction among city clusters should be a consideration in future regional planning.

On population growth near protected areas.

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Lucas N Joppa

Full Text Available Protected areas are the first, and often only, line of defense in efforts to conserve biodiversity. They might be detrimental or beneficial to rural communities depending on how they alter economic opportunities and access to natural resources. As such, protected areas may attract or repel human settlement. Disproportionate increases in population growth near protected area boundaries may threaten their ability to conserve biodiversity.Using decadal population datasets, we analyze population growth across 45 countries and 304 protected areas. We find no evidence for population growth near protected areas to be greater than growth of rural areas in the same country. Furthermore, we argue that what growth does occur near protected areas likely results from a general expansion of nearby population centers.Our results contradict those from a recent study by Wittemyer et al., who claim overwhelming evidence for increased human population growth near protected areas. To understand the disagreement, we re-analyzed the protected areas in Wittemyer et al.'s paper. Their results are simply artifacts of mixing two incompatible datasets. Protected areas may experience unusual population pressures near their edges; indeed, individual case studies provide examples. There is no evidence, however, of a general pattern of disproportionate population growth near protected areas.

[Puebla: the contradictions of growth and urban planning in the nineties].

Science.gov (United States)

Perez Mendoza, S; Rojas Bonilla, J L; Vazquez Lopez, J

1991-12-01

A series of questions and observations are presented relating to urban problems resulting from demographic growth and economic development in the city of Puebla, Mexico. Although the date used are primarily for the city of Puebla, the metropolitan conurbation in its totality should be the true focus of study. The major problems in the city of Puebla result from the inability of market forces to satisfy growing needs for employment, housing, and transport, and from limitations on the ability of the municipal administration to provide and improve the public services demanded by the population. If the metropolitan area is not viewed as a whole, there is a great risk that uncontrolled growth will continue while problems in the conurbation will be underestimated. Puebla's most rapid period of growth occurred in the 1960s, when significant development took place in manufacturing. An inventory of proposed solutions to problems of urban development and social welfare in Puebla was conducted using data from the Development Plan of the state of Puebla for 1987-93 and reports of the state government and of municipal government programs for 1987-1990 and 1990-1993. The various plans mention 281 separate proposals, 218 actions, and 16 strategies. Severe financial limitations and technical and conceptual shortcomings however will probably prevent many from being implemented. Among the persisting problems in Puebla that have been recognized but are likely to worsen are the 38% deficit of drinking water and 30% loss through leakage and waste; the lack of water treatment and inadequate capacity of the sewage system and the failure to operate 7 existing water treatment plants because of the high cost; the lack of solid waste disposal facilities and existence of only 1 landfill that receives only 32% of the 1450 tons of solid waste produced daily; the lack of paved roads and failure to maintain existing roads, and poor planning and inadequacy of public transportation routes. The

An allometric scaling relation based on logistic growth of cities

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yanguang

2014-08-01

The relationships between urban area and population size have been empirically demonstrated to follow the scaling law of allometric growth. This allometric scaling is based on exponential growth of city size and can be termed "exponential allometry", which is associated with the concepts of fractals. However, both city population and urban area comply with the course of logistic growth rather than exponential growth. In this paper, I will present a new allometric scaling based on logistic growth to solve the abovementioned problem. The logistic growth is a process of replacement dynamics. Defining a pair of replacement quotients as new measurements, which are functions of urban area and population, we can derive an allometric scaling relation from the logistic processes of urban growth, which can be termed "logistic allometry". The exponential allometric relation between urban area and population is the approximate expression of the logistic allometric equation when the city size is not large enough. The proper range of the allometric scaling exponent value is reconsidered through the logistic process. Then, a medium-sized city of Henan Province, China, is employed as an example to validate the new allometric relation. The logistic allometry is helpful for further understanding the fractal property and self-organized process of urban evolution in the right perspective.

POPULATION MOBILITY CHARACTERISTIC: NOTES FROM THE URBAN-URBAN INTERACTION IN SEMARANG METROPOLITAN REGION

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MARDHOTILLAH Santi

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The rapid growth of cities is characterized by the "pressure" in the form of increasingly dense urban areas, slums, traffic congestion, unemployment in the cities, and the number of illegal housing in the suburbs. This issue demonstrates the need for a balance between urban and rural areas. The balance is obtained through the interaction, and the interaction there is a process of "transfer" in the form of the human population, natural resources, and other supporting components. This view of the phenomenon makes many researchers conducting various studies in the context of the interaction between rural and urban. Furthermore, the study of the interaction of cities such as Salatiga and Semarang are in fact joined in the same region, KSN Kedungsepur. Semarang and surrounding developments as Semarang Metropolitan Region (SMR are the main attraction for the people who are around Semarang that caused an increase in the spatial interactions between Semarang and surrounding areas. From some areas belonging to KSN Kedungsepur, there are only two areas with the status of the city of Semarang city as a centre of KSN and Salatiga. This becomes interesting, unique conditions for studying the phenomenon under study is the interaction of the cities. The method used in this research was a quantitative method with descriptive analysis. Data was collected through a questionnaire survey technique primary by taking a random sample of migrants from Salatiga City and studied at the city of Semarang. The results of the study there were four mobility characteristics formed between Salatiga and Semarang, namely, commuting-boarding, boarding-commuting, boarding and boarding-permanent.

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird.

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Pickens, Bradley A; Marcus, Jeffrey F; Carpenter, John P; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J; Collazo, Jaime A

2017-04-15

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010-2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Identifying the Risk Areas and Urban Growth by ArcGIS-Tools

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Omar Hamdy

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Abouelreesh is one of the most at risk areas in Aswan, Egypt, which suffers from storms, poor drainage, and flash flooding. These phenomena affect the urban areas and cause a lot of damage to buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, the potential for the further realization of dangerous situations increased when the urban areas of Abouelreesh extended towards the risk areas. In an effort to ameliorate the danger, two key issues for urban growth management were studied, namely: (i estimations regarding the pace of urban sprawl, and (ii the identification of urban areas located in regions that would be affected by flash floods. Analyzing these phenomena require a lot of data in order to obtain good results, but in our case, the official data or field data was limited so we tried to obtain it by accessing two kinds of free sources of satellite data. First, we used Arc GIS tools to analyze (digital elevation model (DEM files in order to study the watershed and better identify the risk area. Second, we studied historical imagery in Google Earth to determine the age of each urban block. The urban growth rate in the risk areas had risen to 63.31% in 2001. Urban growth in the case study area had been influenced by house sizes, because most people were looking to live in bigger houses. The aforementioned problem can be observed by considering the increasing average house sizes from 2001 until 2013, where, especially in risky areas, the average of house sizes had grown from 223 m2 in 2001 to 318 m2 in 2013. The findings from this study would be useful to urban planners and government officials in helping them to make informed decisions on urban development to benefit the community, especially those living in areas at risk from flash flooding from heavy rain events.

The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades.

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Chen, Mingxing; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Weidong; Zhang, Wenzhong

2014-01-01

The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS) methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process.

The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades.

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Mingxing Chen

Full Text Available The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process.

Computer simulation of population dynamics inside the urban environment

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Andreev, A. S.; Inovenkov, I. N.; Echkina, E. Yu.; Nefedov, V. V.; Ponomarenko, L. S.; Tikhomirov, V. V.

2017-12-01

In this paper using a mathematical model of the so-called “space-dynamic” approach we investigate the problem of development and temporal dynamics of different urban population groups. For simplicity we consider an interaction of only two population groups inside a single urban area with axial symmetry. This problem can be described qualitatively by a system of two non-stationary nonlinear differential equations of the diffusion type with boundary conditions of the third type. The results of numerical simulations show that with a suitable choice of the diffusion coefficients and interaction functions between different population groups we can receive different scenarios of population dynamics: from complete displacement of one population group by another (originally more “aggressive”) to the “peaceful” situation of co-existence of them together.

Urbanization in Turkey. An International Urbanization Survey Report to the Ford Foundation.

Science.gov (United States)

Keles, Rusen

Urbanization is sometimes defined as a process of population concentration that requires both growth in the size of cities and multiplication of their numbers. This demographic approach seems to neglect two other important aspects of urbanization: namely, economic and social. The economic dimension consists of structural change in the productive…

Population Density and AIDS-Related Stigma in Large-Urban, Small-Urban, and Rural Communities of the Southeastern USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalichman, Seth; Katner, Harold; Banas, Ellen; Kalichman, Moira

2017-07-01

AIDS stigmas delay HIV diagnosis, interfere with health care, and contribute to mental health problems among people living with HIV. While there are few studies of the geographical distribution of AIDS stigma, research suggests that AIDS stigmas are differentially experienced in rural and urban areas. We conducted computerized interviews with 696 men and women living with HIV in 113 different zip code areas that were classified as large-urban, small-urban, and rural areas in a southeast US state with high-HIV prevalence. Analyses conducted at the individual level (N = 696) accounting for clustering at the zip code level showed that internalized AIDS-related stigma (e.g., the sense of being inferior to others because of HIV) was experienced with greater magnitude in less densely populated communities. Multilevel models indicated that after adjusting for potential confounding factors, rural communities reported greater internalized AIDS-related stigma compared to large-urban areas and that small-urban areas indicated greater experiences of enacted stigma (e.g., discrimination) than large-urban areas. The associations between anticipated AIDS-related stigma (e.g., expecting discrimination) and population density at the community-level were not significant. Results suggest that people living in rural and small-urban settings experience greater AIDS-related internalized and enacted stigma than their counterparts living in large-urban centers. Research is needed to determine whether low-density population areas contribute to or are sought out by people who experienced greater AIDS-related stigma. Regardless of causal directions, interventions are needed to address AIDS-related stigma, especially among people in sparsely populated areas with limited resources.

[Employment and urban growth; an application of Czamanski's model to the Mexican case].

Science.gov (United States)

Verduzco Chavez, B

1991-01-01

The author applies the 1964 model developed by Stanislaw Czamanski, based on theories of urban growth and industrial localization, to the analysis of urban growth in Mexico. "The advantages of this model in its application as a support instrument in the process of urban planning when the information available is incomplete are...discussed...." Census data for 44 cities in Mexico are used. (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

The temporal and spatial dynamics of income and population growth in Ohio, 1950-1990.

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Fan, C C

1994-01-01

"This paper focuses on spatial variation of growth within a state. Using Ohio as a case study, two hypotheses are extracted from the literature. First, the theories of polarization and polarization reversal suggest that in the old industrial core the leading sector role of manufacturing has diminished in old manufacturing poles, and that income growth trends differ substantially between these old poles and new centres of development. Second, the theories of suburbanization and migration reversals suggest that population growth is contingent upon level of urbanization, and that the relationship has changed drastically between the pre-1970s, 1970s, and post-1970s periods." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER) excerpt

Impact of vegetation growth on urban surface temperature distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buyadi, S N A; Mohd, W M N W; Misni, A

2014-01-01

Earlier studies have indicated that, the temperature distribution in the urban area is significantly warmer than its surrounding suburban areas. The process of urbanization has created urban heat island (UHI). As a city expands, trees are cut down to accommodate commercial development, industrial areas, roads, and suburban growth. Trees or green areas normally play a vital role in mitigating the UHI effects especially in regulating high temperature in saturated urban areas. This study attempts to assess the effects of vegetation growth on land surface temperature (LST) distribution in urban areas. An area within the City of Shah Alam, Selangor has been selected as the study area. Land use/land cover and LST maps of two different dates are generated from Landsat 5 TM images of the year 1991 and 2009. Only five major land cover classes are considered in this study. Mono-window algorithm is used to generate the LST maps. Landsat 5 TM images are also used to generate the NDVI maps. Results from this study have shown that there are significant land use changes within the study area. Although the conversion of green areas into residential and commercial areas significantly increase the LST, matured trees will help to mitigate the effects of UHI

Urban Fault Lines in Shangri-La: Population and economic foundations of interethnic conflict in the Tibetan areas of Western China

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A.M. Fischer (Andrew Martín)

2004-01-01

textabstractThis paper argues that contemporary experiences of social exclusion and interethnic conflict in the Tibetan areas of Western China are interrelated and revolve around three processes – population, growth and employment – all of which centre on the urban areas. In this setting, the

Dietary habits and growth: an urban/rural comparison in the Andean region of Apurimac, Peru

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Laura Andrissi

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The efficacy of interventions against children malnutrition crucially depends on a myriad of factors other than the simple food intake, that must be carefully studied in order to plan a balanced policy. The relation between dietary patterns and growth is at the very heart of the problem, especially in consideration of the fact that dietary pattern involves dimension other than pure caloric intake in its definition. In this work we investigated the relations between dietary pattern and growth comparing children from a rural and a urban area in Andean Peru, in terms of food habits and anthropometric variables to develop a model usable in context interventions against malnutrition. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A sample of 159 children (80 from urban, 79 from rural area, aged from 4 to 120 months (72.7 ± 37.5 SD was collected. The data were investigated by a multidimensional (principal component analysis followed by inferential approach analysis to correlate the different hidden dimensions of both anthropometric and dietary observables. The correlation between these dimensions (in the form of principal components were computed and contrasted with the effects of age and urban/rural environments. RESULTS: Caloric intake and growth were not linearly correlated in our data set. Moreover urban and rural environment were demonstrated to show very different patterns of both dietary and anthropometric variables pointing to the marked effect of dietary habits and demographic composition of the analyzed populations. The relation between malnutrition and overweight was at the same time demonstrated to follow a strict area dependent distribution. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: We gave a proof-of-concept of the non-linear character of the relation between malnutrition (in terms of caloric intake and growth, pointing to the need to calibrate interventions on food pattern and not only quantity to contrast malnutrition effects on growth. The education toward a

Dietary habits and growth: an urban/rural comparison in the Andean region of Apurimac, Peru.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrissi, Laura; Mottini, Giovanni; Sebastiani, Valeria; Boldrini, Laura; Giuliani, Alessandro

2013-01-01

The efficacy of interventions against children malnutrition crucially depends on a myriad of factors other than the simple food intake, that must be carefully studied in order to plan a balanced policy. The relation between dietary patterns and growth is at the very heart of the problem, especially in consideration of the fact that dietary pattern involves dimension other than pure caloric intake in its definition. In this work we investigated the relations between dietary pattern and growth comparing children from a rural and a urban area in Andean Peru, in terms of food habits and anthropometric variables to develop a model usable in context interventions against malnutrition. A sample of 159 children (80 from urban, 79 from rural area), aged from 4 to 120 months (72.7 ± 37.5 SD) was collected. The data were investigated by a multidimensional (principal component analysis followed by inferential approach) analysis to correlate the different hidden dimensions of both anthropometric and dietary observables. The correlation between these dimensions (in the form of principal components) were computed and contrasted with the effects of age and urban/rural environments. Caloric intake and growth were not linearly correlated in our data set. Moreover urban and rural environment were demonstrated to show very different patterns of both dietary and anthropometric variables pointing to the marked effect of dietary habits and demographic composition of the analyzed populations. The relation between malnutrition and overweight was at the same time demonstrated to follow a strict area-dependent distribution. We gave a proof-of-concept of the non-linear character of the relation between malnutrition (in terms of caloric intake) and growth, pointing to the need to calibrate interventions on food pattern and not only quantity to contrast malnutrition effects on growth. The education toward a balanced diet must go hand-in-hand with the intervention on caloric intake in order to

Regional assessment of North America: Urbanization trends, biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem services

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McPhearson, Timon; Auch, Roger F.; Alberti, Marina

2013-01-01

North America contains some of the most urbanized landscapes in the world. In the United States (U.S.) and Canada, approximately 80 % of the population is urban, with Mexico slightly less (Kaiser Family Foundation 2013). Population growth combined with economic growth has fueled recent urban land expansion in North America. Between 1970 and 2000, urban land area expanded at a rate of 3.31 % (Seto et al. 2011) creating unique challenges for conserving biodiversity and maintaining regional and local ecosystem services.

Urban habitat fragmentation and genetic population structure of bobcats in coastal southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Ruell, E.W.; Riley, S.P.D.; Douglas, M.R.; Antolin, M.F.; Pollinger, J.R.; Tracey, J.A.; Lyren, L.M.; Boydston, E.E.; Fisher, R.N.; Crooks, K.R.

2012-01-01

Although habitat fragmentation is recognized as a primary threat to biodiversity, the effects of urban development on genetic population structure vary among species and landscapes and are not yet well understood. Here we use non-invasive genetic sampling to compare the effects of fragmentation by major roads and urban development on levels of dispersal, genetic diversity, and relatedness between paired bobcat populations in replicate landscapes in coastal southern California. We hypothesized that bobcat populations in sites surrounded by urbanization would experience reduced functional connectivity relative to less isolated nearby populations. Our results show that bobcat genetic population structure is affected by roads and development but not always as predicted by the degree that these landscape features surround fragments. Instead, we suggest that urban development may affect functional connectivity between bobcat populations more by limiting the number and genetic diversity of source populations of migrants than by creating impermeable barriers to dispersal.

Impact of population and economic growth on carbon emissions in Taiwan using an analytic tool STIRPAT

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Jong-Chao Yeh

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Carbon emission has increasingly become an issue of global concern because of climate change. Unfortunately, Taiwan was listed as top 20 countries of carbon emission in 2014. In order to provide appropriate measures to control carbon emission, it appears that there is an urgent need to address how such factors as population and economic growth impact the emission of carbon dioxide in any developing countries. In addition to total population, both the percentages of population living in urban area (i.e., urbanization percentage, and non-dependent population may also serve as limiting factors. On the other hand, the total energy-driven gross domestic production (GDP and the percentage of GDP generated by the manufacturing industries are assessed to see their respective degree of impact on carbon emission. Therefore, based on the past national data in the period 1990–2014 in Taiwan, an analytic tool of Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT was employed to see how well those aforementioned factors can describe their individual potential impact on global warming, which is measured by the total amount of carbon emission into the atmosphere. Seven scenarios of STIRPAT model were proposed and tested statistically for the significance of each proposed model. As a result, two models were suggested to predict the impact of carbon emission due to population and economic growth by the year 2025 in Taiwan.

Shrinking population and the urban hierarchy

OpenAIRE

Kim, Ho Yeon

2012-01-01

This paper examines whether population shrinkage leads to changes in the urban hierarchy in terms of relative sizes of cities and their functions onomic geography. We work backwards in a racetrack economy with eight cities in a long-run equilibrium. Initial distribution of population is chosen to satisfy both the rank-size rule and central place hierarchy. We have a short-run equilibrium in which firms choose prices and consumers choose consumption taking the number of workers in each region ...

The impact of urbanization and population density on childhood Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence rates in Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Kabaria, Caroline W; Gilbert, Marius; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Linard, Catherine

2017-01-26

Although malaria has been traditionally regarded as less of a problem in urban areas compared to neighbouring rural areas, the risk of malaria infection continues to exist in densely populated, urban areas of Africa. Despite the recognition that urbanization influences the epidemiology of malaria, there is little consensus on urbanization relevant for malaria parasite mapping. Previous studies examining the relationship between urbanization and malaria transmission have used products defining urbanization at global/continental scales developed in the early 2000s, that overestimate actual urban extents while the population estimates are over 15 years old and estimated at administrative unit level. This study sought to discriminate an urbanization definition that is most relevant for malaria parasite mapping using individual level malaria infection data obtained from nationally representative household-based surveys. Boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to determine the effect of urbanization on malaria transmission and if this effect varied with urbanization definition. In addition, the most recent high resolution population distribution data was used to determine whether population density had significant effect on malaria parasite prevalence and if so, could population density replace urban classifications in modelling malaria transmission patterns. The risk of malaria infection was shown to decline from rural areas through peri-urban settlements to urban central areas. Population density was found to be an important predictor of malaria risk. The final boosted regression trees (BRT) model with urbanization and population density gave the best model fit (Tukey test p value <0.05) compared to the models with urbanization only. Given the challenges in uniformly classifying urban areas across different countries, population density provides a reliable metric to adjust for the patterns of malaria risk in densely populated urban areas. Future malaria risk

Determinants of Financial Inclusion of Urban Poor in India: An Empirical Analysis

OpenAIRE

Bapat, Dhananjay; Bhattacharyay, Biswa Nath

2016-01-01

Financial inclusion is crucial for the inclusive and sustainable economic growth of developing countries. Access to financial services to all citizens, particularly to low income and poor people is a key to promote inclusive growth. While rural financial inclusion assumes importance from policy makers and academicians, urban financial inclusion needs urgent attention with rapidly increasing urbanization, unique requirements of urban population and increasing poor and low income population liv...

Population Growth and Its Impact on the Design Capacity and Performance of the Wastewater Treatment Plants in Sedibeng and Soshanguve, South Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Teklehaimanot, Giorgis Z.; Kamika, I.; Coetzee, M. A. A.; Momba, M. N. B.

2015-10-01

This study investigated the effects of population growth on the performance of the targeted wastewater treatment plants in Sedibeng District and Soshanguve peri-urban area, South Africa. The impact of population growth was assessed in terms of plant design, operational capacity (flow rate) and other treatment process constraints. Between 2001 and 2007, the number of households connected to the public sewerage service increased by 15.5, 17.2 and 37.8 % in Emfuleni, Lesedi and Midvaal Local Municipalities, respectively. Soshanguve revealed a 50 % increment in the number of households connected to the sewerage system between 1996 and 2001. Except for Sandspruit (-393.8 %), the rate of influent flows received by Meyerton increased by 6.8 ML/day (67.8 %) and 4.7 ML/day (46.8 %) during the dry and wet seasons, respectively. The flow rate appeared to increase during the wet season by 6.8 ML/day (19.1 %) in Leeuwkuil and during the dry season by 0.8 ML/day (3.9 %) in Rietgat. Underperformance of the existing wastewater treatment plants suggests that the rapid population growth in urban and peri-urban areas (hydraulic overloading of the wastewater treatment plants) and operational constraints (overflow rate, retention time, oxygen supply capacity of the plants and chlorine contact time) resulted in the production of poor quality effluents in both selected areas. This investigation showed that the inefficiency of Meyerton Wastewater Treatment Plant was attributed to the population growth (higher volumes of wastewater generated) and operational constraints, while the cause of underperformance in the other three treatment plants was clearly technical (operational).

Comprehensive evaluation system of intelligent urban growth

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Lian-Yan; Ren, Xiao-Bin

2017-06-01

With the rapid urbanization of the world, urban planning has become increasingly important and necessary to ensure people have access to equitable and sustainable homes, resources and jobs.This article is to talk about building an intelligent city evaluation system.First,using System Analysis Model(SAM) which concludes literature data analysis and stepwise regression analysis to describe intelligent growth scientifically and obtain the evaluation index. Then,using the improved entropy method to obtain the weight of the evaluation index.Afterwards, establishing a complete Smart Growth Comprehensive Evaluation Model(SGCEM).Finally,testing the correctness of the model.Choosing Otago(New Zealand )and Yumen(China) as research object by data mining and SGCEM model,then we get Yumen and Otago’s rational degree’s values are 0.3485 and 0.5376 respectively. It’s believed that the Otago’s smart level is higher,and it is found that the estimated value of rationality is consistent with the reality.

Urbanization and Slum Formation

Science.gov (United States)

Phua, Kai Hong

2007-01-01

The formation of slums need not be inevitable with rapid urbanization. Such an argument appears to be contradicted by evidence of large slum populations in a large number of developing countries and particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions like Asia. The evidence discussed suggests that city authorities faced with rapid urban development lack the capacity to cope with the diverse demands for infrastructural provision to meet economic and social needs. Not only are strategic planning and intervention major issues in agenda to manage rapid urbanization, but city governments are not effectively linking the economic development trajectory to implications for urban growth and, hence, housing needs. In the following discussion, a case study is presented in support of the argument that city governments have to first recognize and then act to establish the link that is crucial between economic development, urban growth, and housing. This is the agendum that has been largely neglected by city and national governments that have been narrowly focused on economic growth with the consequent proliferation of slum formation as a housing solution. PMID:17387618

[Contribution of migrations to the process of urbanization].

Science.gov (United States)

Bocquier, P

1997-10-01

An average of 22% of the populations of the Sahel countries resided in urban areas in the mid-1970s, a lower level than in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion urban has increased by about 5.5% annually over the past 2 decades. By 1993, four Sahel countries had over 30% of their populations in urban areas, and only Burkina Faso had less than 20% urban. The landlocked Sahel countries of Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Chad have maintained rates of urbanization comparable to those of the coastal countries (Cape Verde, Gambia, Mauritania, and Senegal), which had more significant levels of urbanization in the past. The rate of growth of the urban population of all of sub-Saharan Africa was around 5.0% during the past 20 years. Only Dakar among the Sahel capitals has a population of over 1 million. Cities are small, and the urban environment is usually limited to the capital. In Guinea-Bissau, for example, the capital concentrates nearly 85% of the urban population. The increased rates of urbanization are due mainly to migration. In the landlocked countries covered by surveys of the Migration and Urbanization Networks in Western Africa (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger), the rural exodus was directed primarily to other countries. In Senegal and Mauritania, on the other hand, around two-thirds of migrations were internal. Women contribute more than men to urban growth in the Sahel. Returning migrants also show a strong preference for capital cities. Labor markets are international for men but national for women. Urban unemployment rates in the Sahel countries studied were lower for migrants than nonmigrants.

[Population dynamics, urban structure, and production of living space in the metropolitan zone of Mexico City].

Science.gov (United States)

Schteingart, M

1989-01-01

"In this article, an attempt is made to account for certain trends in the growth and distribution of the population, and in the structuring of living space in the metropolitan zone of Mexico City.... Among the important conclusions of this essay are those having to do with the huge growth of some political-administrative units and the relation of this phenomenon to the practices followed by private realtors, often articulated with the policies and programs set by the State's housing agencies, as well as those that associate urban growth and expansion with the development of habitational spaces within the so-called 'formal' and 'informal' housing sectors." Data are from Mexican censuses and other official sources. (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

Population Growth Types in India, 1961-71

Science.gov (United States)

Chakravarti, A. K.

1976-01-01

An effective means of cartographic representation of India's population growth and its spatial characteristics is the focus of this paper. A population growth index and population growth types are discussed. (Author/ND)

Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Population Estimates, Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), Alpha Version

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Estimates consists of country-level estimates of urban, rural and total population and land area country-wide and...

Urban Growth Areas, This Layer represents the current Urbanized Area for Atlanta as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. An Urbanized Area is a concept used by the U.S. Census Bureau to measure the population, land area and population density of a built-up or continuously deve, Published in 2000, 1:100000 (1in=8333ft) scale, Atlanta Regional Commission.

Data.gov (United States)

NSGIC Regional | GIS Inventory — Urban Growth Areas dataset current as of 2000. This Layer represents the current Urbanized Area for Atlanta as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. An Urbanized Area...

Toolbox for Urban Mobility Simulation: High Resolution Population Dynamics for Global Cities

Science.gov (United States)

Bhaduri, B. L.; Lu, W.; Liu, C.; Thakur, G.; Karthik, R.

2015-12-01

In this rapidly urbanizing world, unprecedented rate of population growth is not only mirrored by increasing demand for energy, food, water, and other natural resources, but has detrimental impacts on environmental and human security. Transportation simulations are frequently used for mobility assessment in urban planning, traffic operation, and emergency management. Previous research, involving purely analytical techniques to simulations capturing behavior, has investigated questions and scenarios regarding the relationships among energy, emissions, air quality, and transportation. Primary limitations of past attempts have been availability of input data, useful "energy and behavior focused" models, validation data, and adequate computational capability that allows adequate understanding of the interdependencies of our transportation system. With increasing availability and quality of traditional and crowdsourced data, we have utilized the OpenStreetMap roads network, and has integrated high resolution population data with traffic simulation to create a Toolbox for Urban Mobility Simulations (TUMS) at global scale. TUMS consists of three major components: data processing, traffic simulation models, and Internet-based visualizations. It integrates OpenStreetMap, LandScanTM population, and other open data (Census Transportation Planning Products, National household Travel Survey, etc.) to generate both normal traffic operation and emergency evacuation scenarios. TUMS integrates TRANSIMS and MITSIM as traffic simulation engines, which are open-source and widely-accepted for scalable traffic simulations. Consistent data and simulation platform allows quick adaption to various geographic areas that has been demonstrated for multiple cities across the world. We are combining the strengths of geospatial data sciences, high performance simulations, transportation planning, and emissions, vehicle and energy technology development to design and develop a simulation

Modern population trends in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Abul-basher, M M

1985-01-01

Population growth trends in Bangladesh in the 1871-1981 period were analyzed, with emphasis on fertility and mortality differentials, to provide a basis for population planning. Following proclamation of British Imperial Rule in 1857, mortality rates in Bangladesh began to decline as a result of preventive measures against natural disasters such as draught and famine, but the fertility rate remained unaltered. The demographic pattern was unstable over time, reflecting the impact of the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, war, migration, and economic development. Population growth accelerated greatly during the 1961-74 period, when industrialization emerged and job opportunities were created in the urban centers. Economic hardship, food shortages, and the introduction of family planning curbed urban growth drastically and total growth to some extent in 1974-81. On the average, growth has been higher in the Dhaka and Chittagong Divisions of Bangladesh than in the Khulna and Rajshahi Divisions. Differences in population growth among the regions are attributable largely to internal and external migration. The regression polynomial model best fits past population trends in Bangladesh and can reproduce the observed population by 99.60%. This polynomial is most suitable for graduation and prediction of population trends.

Growing ‘Smart’? Urbanization Processes in the Pune Urban Agglomeration

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Carsten Butsch

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The Indian city of Pune witnessed rapid growth and deep transformation processes in the last three decades. This paper assesses past developments and recent structures and processes against the concept of urban sustainability. Following an overview of the historical development, the dimensions of sustainability are discussed separately, based on empirical findings. Urban growth puts enormous pressure on Pune’s land and water resources, changing the ecology of the area. The increasing water demand of Pune’s growing population competes with growing energy and water demands. An assessment of future climate change impacts indicates that the storage capacity of the reservoirs is more frequently not met during the rainy season. In addition, extreme dry years can aggravate the effects of land use change on water resources in the future. The city’s growth and especially the large in-migration has also changed Pune’s social fabric significantly. Wealth is distributed unevenly in the city and social disparities can be observed along two fault lines, namely along classes and caste groups. The population development and the increasing socioeconomic polarization are linked to the economic development of the city. Pune’s formal economy has a robust base. However, as in many cities of the Global South, the informal economy is the most relevant source of income for large parts of the population. Pune’s development is challenged by informality, poor infrastructure and inadequate planning and governance. Recently new approaches towards urban renewal and smart city development were launched. These new approaches aim at overcoming blockades in the traditional planning. A special challenge for urban planning is the transformation of urban fringe areas of the city, as this process is currently taking place in an unsustainable manner. The paper concludes that urban development has to become holistic, integrative and participative and should abandon the

Urban Fault Lines in Shangri-La: Population and Economic Foundations of Inter-Ethnic Conflict in the Tibetan Areas of Western China

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A.M. Fischer (Andrew Martín)

2004-01-01

textabstractThis paper argues that contemporary experiences of social exclusion and interethnic conflict in the Tibetan areas of Western China are interrelated and revolve around three processes – population, growth and employment – all of which centre on the urban areas. In this setting, the

Southern (DisComfort?: Latino Population Growth, Economic Integration and Spatial Assimilation in North Carolina Micropolitan Areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana-María González Wahl

2007-10-01

Full Text Available This paper examines more closely the growth and assimilation of the Latino population in non-metropolitan areas across North Carolina. More specifically, the analysis focuses on micropolitan areas. Based on the last decennial census, micropolitan areas were newly defined by the Census Bureau to reflect the growing importance of "urban clusters" located in non-metropolitan counties.

Slow Growth and Urban Sprawl: Support for a New Regional Agenda?

Science.gov (United States)

Gainsborough, Juliet F.

2002-01-01

Assessed the possibilities for coalition building around growth related concerns, exploring support for slowing growth in New York City and Los Angeles. Analyzed data from surveys of urban and suburban dwellers regarding support for growth control measures. Suburbanites were much more receptive to slow growth policies than were urbanites, though…

Population growth and infant mortality

OpenAIRE

Fabella, Christina

2008-01-01

The relationship between population growth and economic outcomes is an issue of great policy significance. In the era of the Millennium Development Goals, poverty and its correlates have become the compelling issues. Economic growth may not automatically translate into reductions in poverty and its correlates (may not trickle down) if income distribution is at the same time worsening. We therefore investigate the direct effect of population growth on infant mortality for various income catego...

Social Profile Of The Aged In An Urban Population

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J A Khan

1997-08-01

Full Text Available Research Problem: What is the socio-demographic profile of urban aged population in Aligarh city.Objectives: i To describe the socio-demographic profile of the aged population in an urban area, ii To describe the attitude of these people.Design:Cross-sectional study.Setting : Urban areas of Aligarh city.Participants : 3951 persons aged 60 years and aboveStudy Variables: Socio-demographic characteristics, attitudes.Statistical Analysis : By proportions.Result: 15% of the total estimated elderly population covering all 10 sectors of Aligarh city was studied. The majority ofthe elderly (72.4% belonged to 60-70 years age group. Most of them (77.2% were illiterate, 61.6% belonged to lower socio-economic classes (IV & V, 78.1 % lived in joint families. 39.6% of the aged felt that they were not being given due respect by family members. Nearly half of them had an indifferent or unhappy attitude towards life.Conclusion: The socio-demographic characteristics of the aged are important and must be kept in mind for developing programs to assist them in living as respectful senior citizens.

Strategies for Sustainable Urban Development and Urban-Rural Linkages

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nilsson, Kjell; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick; Aalbers, Carmen

2014-01-01

of transport, land use and open space planning; (ii) urban containment and densification – development a green compact city; (iii) preservation of blue and green infrastructure; and (iv) preservation of agricultural land and the promotion of local production. The need also remains to strengthen governance......An important driving force behind urban expansion is the growth of the urban population. But for Europe, this is not a sufficient explanation. The major trend is that European cities have become much less compact. Since the mid-1950s European cities have expanded on average by 78%, whereas...... the population has grown by only 33%. In the PLUREL project - an integrated project within the EU’s 6th Research Framework Programme - more than 100 researchers from 15 countries analysed the impacts of urban land consumption at a pan-European level and, through six European and one Chinese case studies...

Potential for use of environmental factors in urban planning

Science.gov (United States)

Teixeira da Silva, Ricardo; van der Ploeg, Martine; van Delden, Hedwig; Fleskens, Luuk

2016-04-01

Projections for population growth estimate, on top of the current 7.4 billion world population, an increase of 2 billion people for the next 40 years. It is also projected that 66 per cent of the world population in 2050 will live in urban areas. To accommodate the urban population growth cities are changing continuously land cover to urban areas. Such changes are a threat for natural resources and food production systems stability and capability to provide food and other functions. However, little has been done concerning a rational soil management for food production in urban and peri-urban areas. This study focuses on the assessment of soil lost due to urban expansion and discusses the potential loss regarding the quality of the soil for food production and environmental functions. It is relevant to increase the knowledge on the role of soils in peri-urban areas and in the interaction of physical, environmental and social factors. The methodology consists of assessing the soil quality in and around urban and peri-urban areas. It focuses particularly on the physical properties and the environmental factors, for two periods of time and account the potential losses due to urban expansion. This project is on-going, therefore current advances will be presented and will look for a discussion on the contribution of soil quality for decision-making and land management in urban and peri-urban areas.

Fine-Scale Population Estimation by 3D Reconstruction of Urban Residential Buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shixin; Tian, Ye; Zhou, Yi; Liu, Wenliang; Lin, Chenxi

2016-01-01

Fine-scale population estimation is essential in emergency response and epidemiological applications as well as urban planning and management. However, representing populations in heterogeneous urban regions with a finer resolution is a challenge. This study aims to obtain fine-scale population distribution based on 3D reconstruction of urban residential buildings with morphological operations using optical high-resolution (HR) images from the Chinese No. 3 Resources Satellite (ZY-3). Specifically, the research area was first divided into three categories when dasymetric mapping was taken into consideration. The results demonstrate that the morphological building index (MBI) yielded better results than built-up presence index (PanTex) in building detection, and the morphological shadow index (MSI) outperformed color invariant indices (CIIT) in shadow extraction and height retrieval. Building extraction and height retrieval were then combined to reconstruct 3D models and to estimate population. Final results show that this approach is effective in fine-scale population estimation, with a mean relative error of 16.46% and an overall Relative Total Absolute Error (RATE) of 0.158. This study gives significant insights into fine-scale population estimation in complicated urban landscapes, when detailed 3D information of buildings is unavailable. PMID:27775670

Growth Scenarios for the City of Guangzhou, China: Transferability and Confirmability

Science.gov (United States)

Lehner, A.; Kraus, V.; Wei, C.; Steinnocher, K.

2016-09-01

This work deals with the development of urban growth scenarios and the prevision of the spatial distribution of built-up area and population for the urban area of the city of Guangzhou in China. Using freely-available data, including remotely sensed data as well as census data from the ground, expenditure of time and costs shall remain low. Guangzhou, one of the biggest cities within the Pearl River Delta, has faced an enormous economic and urban growth during the last three decades. Due to its economical and spatial characteristics it is a promising candidate for urban growth scenarios. The monitoring and prediction of urban growth comprises data of population and give them a spatial representation. The model, originally applied for the Indian city Ahmedabad, is used for urban growth scenarios. Therefore, transferability and confirmability of the model are evaluated. Challenges that may occur by transferring a model for urban growth from one region to another are discussed. With proposing the use of urban remote sensing and freely available data, urban planners shall be fitted with a comprehensible and simple tool to be able to contribute to the future challenge Smart Growth.

GROWTH SCENARIOS FOR THE CITY OF GUANGZHOU, CHINA: TRANSFERABILITY AND CONFIRMABILITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Lehner

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This work deals with the development of urban growth scenarios and the prevision of the spatial distribution of built-up area and population for the urban area of the city of Guangzhou in China. Using freely-available data, including remotely sensed data as well as census data from the ground, expenditure of time and costs shall remain low. Guangzhou, one of the biggest cities within the Pearl River Delta, has faced an enormous economic and urban growth during the last three decades. Due to its economical and spatial characteristics it is a promising candidate for urban growth scenarios. The monitoring and prediction of urban growth comprises data of population and give them a spatial representation. The model, originally applied for the Indian city Ahmedabad, is used for urban growth scenarios. Therefore, transferability and confirmability of the model are evaluated. Challenges that may occur by transferring a model for urban growth from one region to another are discussed. With proposing the use of urban remote sensing and freely available data, urban planners shall be fitted with a comprehensible and simple tool to be able to contribute to the future challenge Smart Growth.

Canada's population: growth and dualism.

Science.gov (United States)

Beaujot, R P

1978-04-01

In Canada the current 1.3% population growth rate is causing some concern. Those concerned argue that such a rate of growth in combination with high levels of consumption could jeopardize the country's resource base and its comfortable style of living. Many Canadians are questioning high levels of immigration, for now that the fertility level is below replacement level, net immigration contributes substantially to population growth (over 1/3 in 1976). The growing proportion of non-Europeans among recent immigrants is causing resentment, and, in a tight job market, immigrants are regarded as threats to the World War 2 baby boom cohort who are now at working ages. The baby boom generation also puts stress on housing and health services, and it will increase the need for pension checks as it ages. Although French fertility is no longer high and immigration is no longer dominated by the British, the French group's 200-year struggle to preserve its identity continues on in the current effort of the Quebec government to enforce the use of French language by law within that province. Geography and climate dictate another demographic fact that divides the country and pervades its history. In addition to intense regionalism, uneven population distribution is responsible for 2 other concerns: the rapid growth of several already large cities and depopulation of many small communities. Focus in this discussion is on Canada's population growth in the past and as projected for the future, historical and current fertility, mortality and immigration trends, the search for a new immigration policy, the impact of the baby boom generation on the population's age structure and the problems this creates, and recent shifts in population distribution and in the country's ethnic and linguistic makeup. The population policy proposals evolved thus far involve to a great extent the use of immigration as a lever for achieving given population objectives.

Population growth and food supply in sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Meerman, J; Cochrane, S H

1982-09-01

It is argued in this article that sub-Saharan Africa, given its present institutions and endowments of capital and technology, is already dangerously close to overpopulation. The rapid growth of its population projected for the next decades will greatly increase human misery and depress economic development. Specifically, rapid population growth will have disastrous effects on the region's ability to increase exports and provide people with food. There must be a search for new ways in which these effects could be mitigated. In sub-Saharan Africa fertility either continues to be very high or is increasing, in part due to some decline in traditional practices that reduce fertility, such as prolonged breastfeeding. This situation and the expectation of declining mortality imply that African population growth may increase further. Currently, population in sub-Saharan Africa is about half that of India and a third of China. There are 2 main reasons why reduced fertility in the next few decades is unlikely in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole: Africa has low literacy, high infant and child mortality, and low urbanization; and average African fertility rates may even increase for the next 20 years or so. The question that arises is what are the implications of continuing and rapid population growth for the African food supply. The region's cereal production is largely restricted to 4 grains, i.e., millet, sorghum, maize, and rice. The volume of grain production is less, by weight, than 60% of the production of roots and tubers. There are 2 main differences between the output of these crops in sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world: yields/hectare are lower in Africa than in elsewhere; and yields have generally been decreasing or largely constant in Africa. The low productivity has several causes. Today, population pressure has brought diminishing returns to traditional agriculture in much of the Sahel and the savanna, in parts of East Africa, Southern Africa, and parts

The light pollution as a surrogate for urban population of the US cities

Science.gov (United States)

Operti, Felipe G.; Oliveira, Erneson A.; Carmona, Humberto A.; Machado, Javam C.; Andrade, José S.

2018-02-01

We show that the definition of the city boundaries can have a dramatic influence on the scaling behavior of the night-time light (NTL) as a function of population (POP) in the US. Precisely, our results show that the arbitrary geopolitical definition based on the Metropolitan/Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA/CMSA) leads to a sublinear power-law growth of NTL with POP. On the other hand, when cities are defined according to a more natural agglomeration criteria, namely, the City Clustering Algorithm (CCA), an isometric relation emerges between NTL and population. This discrepancy is compatible with results from previous works showing that the scaling behaviors of various urban indicators with population can be substantially different for distinct definitions of city boundaries. Moreover, considering the CCA definition as more adequate than the MSA/CMSA one because the former does not violate the expected extensivity between land population and area of their generated clusters, we conclude that, without loss of generality, the CCA measures of light pollution and population could be interchangeably utilized in future studies.

Spatiotemporal variability of urban growth factors: A global and local perspective on the megacity of Mumbai

Science.gov (United States)

Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Helbich, Marco

2015-03-01

The rapid growth of megacities requires special attention among urban planners worldwide, and particularly in Mumbai, India, where growth is very pronounced. To cope with the planning challenges this will bring, developing a retrospective understanding of urban land-use dynamics and the underlying driving-forces behind urban growth is a key prerequisite. This research uses regression-based land-use change models - and in particular non-spatial logistic regression models (LR) and auto-logistic regression models (ALR) - for the Mumbai region over the period 1973-2010, in order to determine the drivers behind spatiotemporal urban expansion. Both global models are complemented by a local, spatial model, the so-called geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model, one that explicitly permits variations in driving-forces across space. The study comes to two main conclusions. First, both global models suggest similar driving-forces behind urban growth over time, revealing that LRs and ALRs result in estimated coefficients with comparable magnitudes. Second, all the local coefficients show distinctive temporal and spatial variations. It is therefore concluded that GWLR aids our understanding of urban growth processes, and so can assist context-related planning and policymaking activities when seeking to secure a sustainable urban future.

Urban Growth Modeling Using AN Artificial Neural Network a Case Study of Sanandaj City, Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pahlavani, P.

2014-10-01

Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Modelling and managing urban growth is a complex problem. Cities are now recognized as complex, non-linear and dynamic process systems. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. Local governments that implement urban growth models need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban uses within the boundary. There are so many negative implications related with the type of inappropriate urban development such as increased traffic and demand for mobility, reduced landscape attractively, land use fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and alterations of the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to use the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to make a powerful tool for simulating urban growth patterns. Our study area is Sanandaj city located in the west of Iran. Landsat imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006 are used. Dataset were used include distance to principle roads, distance to residential areas, elevation, slope, distance to green spaces and distance to region centers. In this study an appropriate methodology for urban growth modelling using satellite remotely sensed data is presented and evaluated. Percent Correct Match (PCM) and Figure of Merit were used to evaluate ANN results.

URBAN GROWTH MODELING USING AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK A CASE STUDY OF SANANDAJ CITY, IRAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Mohammady

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Modelling and managing urban growth is a complex problem. Cities are now recognized as complex, non-linear and dynamic process systems. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. Local governments that implement urban growth models need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban uses within the boundary. There are so many negative implications related with the type of inappropriate urban development such as increased traffic and demand for mobility, reduced landscape attractively, land use fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and alterations of the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to use the Artificial Neural Network (ANN to make a powerful tool for simulating urban growth patterns. Our study area is Sanandaj city located in the west of Iran. Landsat imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006 are used. Dataset were used include distance to principle roads, distance to residential areas, elevation, slope, distance to green spaces and distance to region centers. In this study an appropriate methodology for urban growth modelling using satellite remotely sensed data is presented and evaluated. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit were used to evaluate ANN results.

Population growth changes targets for immunization.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuljapurkar, S; John, A M

1995-01-01

The faster the rate of population growth in developing countries, the less likely it is that current protocols for immunization against measles, rubella, and mumps will eradicate these childhood diseases. Standard protocols (timing, percentage of children to be immunized) do not take into account the rapid rates of population growth in developing countries (3.0% per year on average in sub-Saharan Africa and 2.0% in the rest of Africa, in Latin America, and in Asia, excluding China). Most public health planning models in this area were created based on static infant populations. The World Health Organization advises vaccinating at least 85% of children aged 6 to 9 months, a 3-month immunization window during which maternal antibodies are low (so the vaccination takes) and herd immunity is high (the probability that a child will encounter the disease is low because most children have been immunized). In practice, the immunization window in developing countries is 1 year or more. More susceptible children are present than assumed by the models. A larger number of susceptible babies are added each year during rapid population growth. As the age range for immunization widens, a higher percentage of children must be vaccinated to eradicate disease (chart). The proportion of each birth cohort that must be immunized rises as the population growth rate increases. At zero population growth, 94% must be vaccinated; at population growth rates greater than 3%, 98% must be vaccinated.

Predicting Intra-Urban Population Densities in Africa using SAR and Optical Remote Sensing Data

Science.gov (United States)

Linard, C.; Steele, J.; Forget, Y.; Lopez, J.; Shimoni, M.

2017-12-01

The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving profound social, environmental and epidemiological changes within rapidly growing cities. Estimations of within-city variations in population density must be improved in order to take urban heterogeneities into account and better help urban research and decision making, especially for vulnerability and health assessments. Satellite remote sensing offers an effective solution for mapping settlements and monitoring urbanization at different spatial and temporal scales. In Africa, the urban landscape is covered by slums and small houses, where the heterogeneity is high and where the man-made materials are natural. Innovative methods that combine optical and SAR data are therefore necessary for improving settlement mapping and population density predictions. An automatic method was developed to estimate built-up densities using recent and archived optical and SAR data and a multi-temporal database of built-up densities was produced for 48 African cities. Geo-statistical methods were then used to study the relationships between census-derived population densities and satellite-derived built-up attributes. Best predictors were combined in a Random Forest framework in order to predict intra-urban variations in population density in any large African city. Models show significant improvement of our spatial understanding of urbanization and urban population distribution in Africa in comparison to the state of the art.

A Method for Mapping Future Urbanization in the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lahouari Bounoua

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Cities are poised to absorb additional people. Their sustainability, or ability to accommodate a population increase without depleting resources or compromising future growth, depends on whether they harness the efficiency gains from urban land management. Population is often projected as a bulk national number without details about spatial distribution. We use Landsat and population data in a methodology to project and map U.S. urbanization for the year 2020 and document its spatial pattern. This methodology is important to spatially disaggregate projected population and assist land managers to monitor land use, assess infrastructure and distribute resources. We found the U.S. west coast urban areas to have the fastest population growth with relatively small land consumption resulting in future decrease in per capita land use. Except for Miami (FL, most other U.S. large urban areas, especially in the Midwest, are growing spatially faster than their population and inadvertently consuming land needed for ecosystem services. In large cities, such as New York, Chicago, Houston and Miami, land development is expected more in suburban zones than urban cores. In contrast, in Los Angeles land development within the city core is greater than in its suburbs.

Intimate Partner Violence among General and Urban Poor Populations in Kathmandu, Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Oshiro, Azusa; Poudyal, Amod K.; Poudel, Krishna C.; Jimba, Masamine; Hokama, Tomiko

2011-01-01

Comparative studies are lacking on intimate partner violence (IPV) between urban poor and general populations. The objective of this study is to identify the prevalence and risk factors of physical IPV among the general and poor populations in urban Nepal. A cross-sectional study was conducted by structured questionnaire interview. Participants…

[The control of urban growth in Mexico City. Suppositions regarding poor planning].

Science.gov (United States)

Aguilar, A G; Olvera, G

1991-01-01

Plan of the state of Mexico published in 1986 proposed 2 important programs for controlling urban growth. The territorial reserves program aimed to anticipate the need and make available through purchase, expropriation, or other means sufficient lands for housing to which the lowest income groups would share access. The "Paint Your Line" program establiished physical limits for urban expansion in each of the 17 conurban municipios in the State of Mexico. To date, however, few lands have been set aside for legal acquisition and the Paint Your Line program has been slow in delimiting the areas to be settled. Data from a 1989 study in the municipios of Chalco and Ixtapaluca demonstrate the shortcomings of the programs, which do not address the true processes and agents that control new settlements and especially illegal occupations and which fail to satisfy the needs of low-income population sectors.

Variability in urban soils influences the health and growth of native tree seedlings

Science.gov (United States)

Clara C. Pregitzer; Nancy F. Sonti; Richard A. Hallett

2016-01-01

Reforesting degraded urban landscapes is important due to the many benefits urban forests provide. Urban soils are highly variable, yet little is known about how this variability in urban soils influences tree seedling performance and survival. We conducted a greenhouse study to assess health, growth, and survival of four native tree species growing in native glacial...

Fine-Scale Population Estimation by 3D Reconstruction of Urban Residential Buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shixin Wang

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Fine-scale population estimation is essential in emergency response and epidemiological applications as well as urban planning and management. However, representing populations in heterogeneous urban regions with a finer resolution is a challenge. This study aims to obtain fine-scale population distribution based on 3D reconstruction of urban residential buildings with morphological operations using optical high-resolution (HR images from the Chinese No. 3 Resources Satellite (ZY-3. Specifically, the research area was first divided into three categories when dasymetric mapping was taken into consideration. The results demonstrate that the morphological building index (MBI yielded better results than built-up presence index (PanTex in building detection, and the morphological shadow index (MSI outperformed color invariant indices (CIIT in shadow extraction and height retrieval. Building extraction and height retrieval were then combined to reconstruct 3D models and to estimate population. Final results show that this approach is effective in fine-scale population estimation, with a mean relative error of 16.46% and an overall Relative Total Absolute Error (RATE of 0.158. This study gives significant insights into fine-scale population estimation in complicated urban landscapes, when detailed 3D information of buildings is unavailable.

Dynamic assessments of population exposure to urban greenspace using multi-source big data.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Yimeng; Huang, Bo; Cai, Jixuan; Chen, Bin

2018-09-01

A growing body of evidence has proven that urban greenspace is beneficial to improve people's physical and mental health. However, knowledge of population exposure to urban greenspace across different spatiotemporal scales remains unclear. Moreover, the majority of existing environmental assessments are unable to quantify how residents enjoy their ambient greenspace during their daily life. To deal with this challenge, we proposed a dynamic method to assess urban greenspace exposure with the integration of mobile-phone locating-request (MPL) data and high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images. This method was further applied to 30 major cities in China by assessing cities' dynamic greenspace exposure levels based on residents' surrounding areas with different buffer scales (0.5km, 1km, and 1.5km). Results showed that regarding residents' 0.5-km surrounding environment, Wenzhou and Hangzhou were found to be with the greenest exposure experience, whereas Zhengzhou and Tangshan were the least ones. The obvious diurnal and daily variations of population exposure to their surrounding greenspace were also identified to be highly correlated with the distribution pattern of urban greenspace and the dynamics of human mobility. Compared with two common measurements of urban greenspace (green coverage rate and green area per capita), the developed method integrated the dynamics of population distribution and geographic locations of urban greenspace into the exposure assessment, thereby presenting a more reasonable way to assess population exposure to urban greenspace. Additionally, this dynamic framework could hold potential utilities in supporting urban planning studies and environmental health studies and advancing our understanding of the magnitude of population exposure to greenspace at different spatiotemporal scales. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximate factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, R P

1989-01-01

This philosophical review of 2 arguments about responsibility for and solutions to environmental degradation concludes that both sides are correct: the ultimate and the proximal causes. Ultimate causes of pollution are defined as the technology responsible for a given type of pollution, such as burning fossil fuel; proximate causes are defined as situation-specific factors confounding the problem, such as population density or rate of growth. Commoner and others argue that developed countries with low or negative population growth rates are responsible for 80% of world pollution, primarily in polluting technologies such as automobiles, power generation, plastics, pesticides, toxic wastes, garbage, warfaring, and nuclear weapons wastes. Distortionary policies also contribute; examples are agricultural trade protection, land mismanagement, urban bias in expenditures, and institutional rigidity., Poor nations are responsible for very little pollution because poverty allows little waste or expenditures for polluting, synthetic technologies. The proximal causes of pollution include numbers and rate of growth of populations responsible for the pollution. Since change in the ultimate cause of pollution remains out of reach, altering the numbers of polluters can make a difference. Predictions are made for proportions of the world's total waste production, assuming current 1.6 tons/capita for developed countries and 0.17 tons/capita for developing countries. If developing countries grow at current rates and become more wealthy, they will be emitting half the world's waste by 2025. ON the other hand, unsustainable population growth goes along with inadequate investment in human capital: education, health, employment, infrastructure. The solution is to improve farming technologies in the 117 non-self-sufficient countries, fund development in the most unsustainable enclaves of growing countries, break institutionalized socio-political rigidity in these enclaves, and focus on

Modification of Heat-Related Mortality in an Elderly Urban Population by Vegetation (Urban Green) and Proximity to Water (Urban Blue): Evidence from Lisbon, Portugal.

Science.gov (United States)

Burkart, Katrin; Meier, Fred; Schneider, Alexandra; Breitner, Susanne; Canário, Paulo; Alcoforado, Maria João; Scherer, Dieter; Endlicher, Wilfried

2016-07-01

Urban populations are highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of heat, with heat-related mortality showing intra-urban variations that are likely due to differences in urban characteristics and socioeconomic status. We investigated the influence of urban green and urban blue, that is, urban vegetation and water bodies, on heat-related excess mortality in the elderly > 65 years old in Lisbon, Portugal, between 1998 and 2008. We used remotely sensed data and geographic information to determine the amount of urban vegetation and the distance to bodies of water (the Atlantic Ocean and the Tagus Estuary). Poisson generalized additive models were fitted, allowing for the interaction between equivalent temperature [universal thermal climate index (UTCI)] and quartiles of urban greenness [classified using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)] and proximity to water (≤ 4 km vs. > 4 km), while adjusting for potential confounders. The association between mortality and a 1°C increase in UTCI above the 99th percentile (24.8°C) was stronger for areas in the lowest NDVI quartile (14.7% higher; 95% CI: 1.9, 17.5%) than for areas in the highest quartile (3.0%; 95% CI: 2.0, 4.0%). In areas > 4 km from water, a 1°C increase in UTCI above the 99th percentile was associated with a 7.1% increase in mortality (95% CI: 6.2, 8.1%), whereas in areas ≤ 4 km from water, the estimated increase in mortality was only 2.1% (95% CI: 1.2, 3.0%). Urban green and blue appeared to have a mitigating effect on heat-related mortality in the elderly population in Lisbon. Increasing the amount of vegetation may be a good strategy to counteract the adverse effects of heat in urban areas. Our findings also suggest potential benefits of urban blue that may be present several kilometers from a body of water. Burkart K, Meier F, Schneider A, Breitner S, Canário P, Alcoforado MJ, Scherer D, Endlicher W. 2016. Modification of heat-related mortality in an elderly urban population by

Mapping forest structure, species gradients and growth in an urban area using lidar and hyperspectral imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Huan

Urban forests play an important role in the urban ecosystem by providing a range of ecosystem services. Characterization of forest structure, species variation and growth in urban forests is critical for understanding the status, function and process of urban ecosystems, and helping maximize the benefits of urban ecosystems through management. The development of methods and applications to quantify urban forests using remote sensing data has lagged the study of natural forests due to the heterogeneity and complexity of urban ecosystems. In this dissertation, I quantify and map forest structure, species gradients and forest growth in an urban area using discrete-return lidar, airborne imaging spectroscopy and thermal infrared data. Specific objectives are: (1) to demonstrate the utility of leaf-off lidar originally collected for topographic mapping to characterize and map forest structure and associated uncertainties, including aboveground biomass, basal area, diameter, height and crown size; (2) to map species gradients using forest structural variables estimated from lidar and foliar functional traits, vegetation indices derived from AVIRIS hyperspectral imagery in conjunction with field-measured species data; and (3) to identify factors related to relative growth rates in aboveground biomass in the urban forests, and assess forest growth patterns across areas with varying degree of human interactions. The findings from this dissertation are: (1) leaf-off lidar originally acquired for topographic mapping provides a robust, potentially low-cost approach to quantify spatial patterns of forest structure and carbon stock in urban areas; (2) foliar functional traits and vegetation indices from hyperspectral data capture gradients of species distributions in the heterogeneous urban landscape; (3) species gradients, stand structure, foliar functional traits and temperature are strongly related to forest growth in the urban forests; and (4) high uncertainties in our

Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

2018-05-01

Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

The effects of ageing and urbanisation on China's future rural and urban populations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart

2017-01-01

This paper estimates China's future population and labour force by developing a novel forecasting model for population. It combines information about age-specific parameters on fertility and mortality for both rural and urban areas using information about rural-urban migration and the transformation

Implications of agricultural transitions and urbanization for ecosystem services.

Science.gov (United States)

Cumming, Graeme S; Buerkert, Andreas; Hoffmann, Ellen M; Schlecht, Eva; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan; Tscharntke, Teja

2014-11-06

Historically, farmers and hunter-gatherers relied directly on ecosystem services, which they both exploited and enjoyed. Urban populations still rely on ecosystems, but prioritize non-ecosystem services (socioeconomic). Population growth and densification increase the scale and change the nature of both ecosystem- and non-ecosystem-service supply and demand, weakening direct feedbacks between ecosystems and societies and potentially pushing social-ecological systems into traps that can lead to collapse. The interacting and mutually reinforcing processes of technological change, population growth and urbanization contribute to over-exploitation of ecosystems through complex feedbacks that have important implications for sustainable resource use.

Segregation reinforced by urban planning | IDRC - International ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2015-10-28

Oct 28, 2015 ... ... What is driving urban violence? Segregated urban planning can leave a legacy of community tension and insecurity. Potential solutions? Include vulnerable communities in city planning decisions; invest in transport infrastructure; and regularly update city development plans to reflect population growth.

Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Population and Land Area Estimates, Version 2

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Population and Land Area Estimates, Version 2 data set consists of country-level estimates of urban population,...

Landscape analysis of urban growth patterns in Seremban, Malaysia, using spatio-temporal data

Science.gov (United States)

Aburas, Maher M.; Abdullah, Sabrina H.; Ramli, Mohammad F.; As'shari, Zulfa H.

2016-06-01

Urban growth is one of the major issues that have played a significant role in destroying the ecosystem in recent years. Landscape analysis is an important technique widely used to evaluate urban growth patterns. In this study, four land-use maps from 1984, 1990, 2000, and 2010 have been used to analyze an urban landscape. The values of a built-up area were initially computed using a geographic information system environment based on the spatial gradient approach. Mathematical matrices were then used to determine the amount of change in urban patches in each direction. Results of the number of patches, landscape shape index, aggregation index, and total edges confirmed that the urban patches in Seremban, Malaysia, have become more dispersed from 2000 to 2010. The urban patches have also become more continuous, especially in the north-western part of Seremban as a result of the urban development in the Nilai District. These results indicate the necessity to create new policies in the city to protect the sustainability of the land use of Seremban.

Compelling Factors of Urbanization and Rural-Urban Migration in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

cntaganda

These grouped habitats are intended to improve aspects of service- delivery such as water, ... dance with global trends and of satisfying the priorities of inter- national funding .... Natural population growth in urban areas but more specifically, ..... strategy should be pursued, together with meaningful interventions aimed at ...

More than 500 million Chinese urban residents (14% of the global urban population) are imperiled by fine particulate hazard.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Chunyang; Han, Lijian; Zhang, Robin Q

2016-11-01

China's urbanization and the subsequent public vulnerability to degenerated environment is important to global public health. Among the environmental problems, fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) pollution has become a serious hazard in rapidly urbanizing China. However, quantitative information remains inadequate. We thus collected PM 2.5 concentrations and population census records, to illustrate the spatial patterns and changes in the PM 2.5 hazard levels in China, and to quantify public vulnerability to the hazard during 2000-2010, following the air quality standards of World Health Organization. We found that 28% (2.72 million km 2 ) of China's territory, including 78% of cities (154 cities) with a population of >1 million, was exposed to PM 2.5 hazard in 2010; a 15% increase (1.47 million km 2 ) from 2000 to 2010. The hazards potentially impacted the health of 72% of the total population (942 million) in 2010, including 70% of the young (206 million) and 76% of the old (71 million). This was a significant increase from the 42% of total the population (279 million) exposed in 2000. Of the total urban residents, 76% (501 million) were affected in 2010. Along with PM 2.5 concentration increase, massive number of rural to urban migration also contributed greatly to China's urban public health vulnerability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Urbanization and Sub-urbanization Processes Over Time and Space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Obudho, R.A.

1999-01-01

Until recently, it was thought that Kenya would be an overwhelmingly rural country and that urbanization would not be a problem, because it was associated with modernization and industrialization. Both Government of Kenya (GoK) and international donor agencies fostered rural developmental and agricultural-based strategies without paying attention to rapid rates of urbanization. Today, the high rate of urbanization in Kenya has been added to the long list of potentially devastating development problems that must be addressed. The fundamental problem is that, the urban population is growing very fast while the economic growth and development transformations necessary to support it enhance the quality of urban life are not occurring as rapidly. The new planning strategy for Kenya is to move beyond isolated projects, that emphasize shelter and residential infrastructure towards integrated urban-wide effort that promote urban productivity and reduce constraints on efficiency

[A longitudinal study of urban-rural growth differences among infants fed with breast milk in six economically better areas in China].

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-01

To understand the differences between urban and rural breast-fed infants' growth patterns. In economically better regions of six provinces in China, 1147 urban and 1058 rural subjects were recruited by the project respectively, and their longitudinal weight, length, and head circumference were measured from birth to 12 months old. The monitoring frequency was 16 times in total. Analysis was conducted to compare the growth patterns between 497 of urban and 764 of rural subjects meeting the breast-fed babies definition by WHO. During the first year after birth, urban breast-feeding boys' weight, length, head circumference increased by 7.13 kg, 26.9 cm, and 12.4 cm respectively, and 6.60 kg, 26.1 cm, and 11.9 cm for girls. The corresponding values of rural population were 6.70 kg, 25.7 cm and 12.4 cm for boys, and 6.20 kg, 25.0 cm, and 11.8 cm for girls respectively. The gaps existed in the three physical indexes between urban and rural breastfeeding babies were 110 - 480 g, 1.2 - 2.0 cm and 0.1 - 0.6 cm for boys, and 200 - 510 g, 1.3 - 1.7 cm, and 0.4 - 0.6 cm for girls. In about 50% of monitoring age points, monthly increments of urban boy's weight presented higher than rural samples, but only 17% for girl's weight, and boy/girl's length and head circumference. The urban-rural regional gaps in breast-fed infants' physical development were not optimistic and seemed to be wider in boys than in girls. There are still large room for improvement for growth of infants in rural areas.

Urban and global populism: An analysis of Jakarta as Resilient City

Science.gov (United States)

Sustikarini, A.; Kabinawa, L. N. R. W.

2018-03-01

One of the important elements of friendly city is its cordiality towards diversity. Cities will naturally attract people from different nationalities to live, study and work. The rapid development of cities has long been regarded as major drive of urbanization from other areas which contributed to the high level of ethnic and race diversities. However diversity is currently seen under threat due to the rise of global populism that is mainly fuelled by anxiety over economic condition. The growth of nationalist movement, anti-immigrant parties and xenophobia is gaining foothold across the planet. Against this backdrop, this paper aims at investigating the nexus between diversity and inequality in Jakarta. The current local election provides example of these two competing concepts. Jakarta as emerging global city with diverse communities had been marred by public protest and narration of identity issues. On the other hands, populism has deep root in severe economic inequality among the residents. A robust development in Jakarta has been marked by concentration of wealth in the hands of few. This paper presents case study on the root causes of growing populism and its relations with inequality in Jakarta.

The Process of Shrinkage as a Challenge to Urban Governance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stryjakiewicz Tadeusz

2016-06-01

Full Text Available For many decades most researchers, planners and local authorities have been focusing almost exclusively on urban growth and its socio-economic and spatial consequences. However, in the current debate concerning the future of cities and regions in Europe the process of their shrinkage starts to attract more attention. In the conditions of a declining population, urban governance is an important challenge for local authorities, being usually much more difficult than during the periods of population growth.

Variation and plasticity and their interaction with urbanization in Guadalupe Bass populations on and off the Edwards Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Pease, Jessica E.; Grabowski, Timothy B.; Pease, Allison A.

2017-01-01

The Colorado River Basin in Texas has experienced major alterations to its hydrologic regime due to changing land and water use patterns. These anthropogenic influences on hydrologic variability have had major implications for riparian and aquatic ecosystems and the species dependent upon them. However, impacts are often assessed at a limited temporal and spatial scale, tending to focus on relatively short and discrete periods or portions of a river basin. It is not clear how basin-wide alterations occurring over decades affect species. Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii are endemic to central Texas and are typically associated with shallow runs and riffles in small streams. However, Guadalupe Bass are found throughout the Colorado River Basin, including the mainstem portion of the lower river downstream of the city of Austin where they support a popular fishery. Because Guadalupe Bass exist across a wide range of stream orders within the basin, it is unclear whether populations respond similarly to anthropogenic disturbances or to conservation and restoration activities. Therefore, our objectives were to:Assess the effects of urbanization and hydrology on the population structure and dynamics of Guadalupe Bass.Evaluate the effects of environmental gradients on ecomorphological variation in Guadalupe Bass populations across multiple spatial scales.Describe the life history, habitat use, and behavior of the Guadalupe Bass population in the lower Colorado River and compare it to populations in more “typical” habitats.Results contribute to an understanding of the response of Guadalupe Bass to anthropogenic disturbances, including increased urbanization in central Texas and further assist in the conservation of the species. The ability of the population to not only persist, but flourish downstream of a heavily populated urban area presented a unique opportunity to investigate a native species response to anthropogenic disturbance. This research revealed

Population, internal migration, and economic growth: an empirical analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreland, R S

1982-01-01

effect of a population's age structure on savings rather than assuming a particular direction as Coale-Hoover and Simon do in their models, it was found that a higher proportion of children compete with savings in agriculture but complement savings in industrial areas. This was consistent with the economic value of children in agricultural and nonagricultural regions of less developed countries. The estimated production functions showed that marginal products of labor were considerably higher in agriculture than in nonagriculture. As with other simulation models, the effect of reducing fertility was to accelerate income growth. Reductions in rural fertility were more equitable and raised the overall level of per capita income more than similar efforts directed to urban areas only.

Urbanization in Africa: challenges and opportunities for conservation

Science.gov (United States)

Güneralp, Burak; Lwasa, Shuaib; Masundire, Hillary; Parnell, Susan; Seto, Karen C.

2017-12-01

Africa, a continent exceptionally rich in biodiversity, is rapidly urbanizing. Africa’s urbanization is manifest in the growth of its megacities as well as that of its smaller towns and cities. The conservation planning and practice will increasingly need to account for direct and indirect impacts of the continent’s urbanization. The objective of our study is to pinpoint the outstanding challenges and opportunities afforded by the growing cities on the continent to the conservation goals and practices. While there have been many studies on the impacts of urbanization and development on conservation in Africa these studies tended to focus on specific issues. Here, we provide a synthesis of this body of work supported by new analysis. Urban areas, growing both in population and in land cover, pose threats to the integrity of the continent’s ecosystems and biodiversity but their growth also create opportunities for conservation. The burgeoning urban populations, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, increase the strain on already insufficient infrastructure and bring new governance challenges. Yet, Africa’s ecosystems can serve as foundations for green infrastructure to serve the needs of its urban populations while safeguarding fragile biodiversity. Overall, while worsening social problems overshadow the concerns for biodiversity there are also promising initiatives to bring these concerns into the fold to address social, institutional, and ecological challenges that emerge with the continued urbanization of the continent.

Myocardial infarction in Québec rural and urban populations between 1995 and 1997.

Science.gov (United States)

Loslier, Julie; Vanasse, Alain; Niyonsenga, Théophile; Courteau, Josiane; Orzanco, Gabriela; Hemiari, Abbas

2007-01-01

There is abundant evidence of health inequities between urban and rural populations. The purpose of this paper is to describe the socioeconomic characteristics of Québec urban and rural populations and the relation between rurality and incidence of myocardial infarction (MI), care management and outcomes. Socioeconomic data by census subdivisions were available from the 1996 Canadian census, representing 7,137,245 individuals. Data on patients with MI were taken from the provincial administrative health database (MED-ECHO), which is managed by the Ministry of Health and contains clinical and demographic information collected when patients are released from acute care hospitals in Québec. We included a total of 37,678 cases compiled over the 3 years of follow-up in the analyses. Residents of rural areas with low urban influence have higher MI incidence rates than all of the other populations in the study. In comparison with urban populations, their observed rural counterparts are at a disadvantage with regard to education, employment and income. Although angioplasty and coronary artery bypass graft surgery rates were higher in more urban areas, the survival rate was lower than in rural areas. This study revealed geographic heterogeneity of MI incidence, revascularization rates and survival rates among urban and rural populations.

Effects of Population Growth and Climate Variability on Sustainable Groundwater in Mali, West Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandra Lutz

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Groundwater is increasingly relied on as a source of potable water in developing countries, but factors such as population growth, development, and climate variability, pose potential challenges for ongoing sustainable supply. The effect of these factors on the groundwater system was considered in four scenarios using a numerical model to represent the Bani area of Mali, West Africa. By 2040, population growth, climate variability, and development as urbanization, agriculture, and industry creates scenarios in which groundwater extraction is an increasingly larger percentage of the groundwater system. Consumption from agriculture and industry increases extraction rates from less than 1 to 3.8% of mean annual precipitation, which will likely affect the groundwater system. For instance, concentrated pumping in local areas may result in water level declines. The results of this study contribute to an ongoing evaluation of sustainable groundwater resources in West Africa.

Firm dynamic analysis for urban land use and economic growth modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Che'Man, N.; Sabri, S.; Hosni, N.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2013-01-01

In urban growth processes, urbanisation is highly influenced by economic growth which triggers the dynamics of economic agents and land uses. This is consisted of complex subsystems which need sophisticated methods like agent-based modelling and simulation to understand the pattern, behaviour and

Comparison of patterns of substance abuse disorders in urban and rural population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Morad Rasouli-Azad

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Studies of the prevalence of substance abuse in rural and urban population in different countries revealed variable results regarding to the study method, study population, age group and measuring tools. The purpose of this research is to compare the patterns of substance abuse disorders in urban and rural population in Mashhad.Materials and Method: Two groups consecutively admitted patients who referred to substance treatment clinics of Mashhad, were selected (110 urban and 100 rural patients. Samples were evaluated with structured demographic questionnaire and Structured Clinical Interview (SCID for DSM-IV. Data were analyzed by χ2 and independent t-test.Results: This study showed statistically significant differences between two groups in marital status, education level, monthly income and job. Also the samples were differed in substance type, history of injection and quit, abuse of nicotine, cannabis and alcohol in long life. Conclusion: Rural and urban societies have differences in patterns of substance abuse that can be originated from social-context differences

Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

Science.gov (United States)

Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

2018-05-01

Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees ( Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

Science.gov (United States)

Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

2017-12-01

Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees (Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

The role of population density on the impact of urbaniza-tion on GHG emissions in China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yonghong; Gao, Chaochao; Lu, Yingying

2017-04-01

Urbanization directly drives rural to urban population migration and indirectly causes west to east migration in China, two phenomena that may significantly impact China's greenhouse gas emissions given its huge population and vast difference between the western rural and eastern urban areas. These two phenomena were analyzed by using emissions as a per capita term, and extending the impact from the traditional urbanization rate effect to include population density effect. The results show that population density has actually been the dominant demographic player in changing per capita emissions for the past two decades in China, and its elasticity changed from positive in economically less-developed provinces to negative for the developed provinces. This study provides a new perspective in the study of the relationship between urbanization and greenhouse gas emissions, and the results indicate that population density change should be taken into account to accurately assess the impact of urbanization.

Population perspective is widening. Interview: Louise Lassonde.

Science.gov (United States)

1992-01-01

Commentary is provided on the link between poverty and population growth, the link between population growth and the environment, solutions in general and at the village level, integrated programs, urban growth, and critical policies. Developing countries do recognize that rural poverty is part of the cycle of urban migration and population dynamics. Poverty also must be treated separately from population growth issues. An important issue is the reproductive health of women, their economic opportunities, and empowerment in decision making and access to information. Another important issue is the link between human species survival and the biosphere. Both issues need to be addressed and there is no contradiction between the issues; each is reinforcing of the other in policy. At the village level improving the personal, social, and environmental gains for women in villages with high fertility and soil erosion, deforestation, and water shortages serves both concerns. Programmatically, this means more information for women, better reproductive health services for women, improved social services, tree planting programs, water use programs, and environmental protection programs. Central planning is needed, but also decentralization in implementation and decision making. Urban population growth does not lend itself to ready-made solutions. The positive is that it offers modernization and the possibility of improved social services; the negative is how to provide the services. Both population dynamics and underlying infrastructure and urban management must work together. Recommendations are 3-fold. 1) Technology, the production/consumption process, and population dynamics are the major driving forces of environmental change. 2) The planning approach needs to be reconsidered: population dynamics and implications must be integrated at every level of planning. 3) Policies that recognize the aforementioned points will induce political will to implement activities and programs.

Population genetics of the olive-winged bulbul (Pycnonotus plumosus) in a tropical urban-fragmented landscape.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Grace S Y; Sadanandan, Keren R; Rheindt, Frank E

2016-01-01

With increasing urbanization, urban-fragmented landscapes are becoming more and more prevalent worldwide. Such fragmentation may lead to small, isolated populations that face great threats from genetic factors that affect even avian species with high dispersal propensities. Yet few studies have investigated the population genetics of species living within urban-fragmented landscapes in the Old World tropics, in spite of the high levels of deforestation and fragmentation within this region. We investigated the evolutionary history and population genetics of the olive-winged bulbul (Pycnonotus plumosus) in Singapore, a highly urbanized island which retains landscape.

Monitoring of urban growth in the state of Hidalgo using Landsat images

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Cano Salinas

2017-03-01

Given this background, this paper is focused on the generation of geographic information for regional urban planning and the overall aim is to examine urban growth rate during the period 2000-2014 in the state of Hidalgo, Mexico and identify potential areas of expansion from Landsat images. The methodology was based on techniques of remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS. The inputs used were six Landsat scenes: three for 2000 year and three for 2014. Image processing was performed on ERDAS Imagine® 9.1 and the spatial analysis of urban coverage statewide on ArcGIS 10.0 by ESRI®. First, the radiometric correction was made and we obtained the urban polygons of the 2000 year through of supervised classification. The 2014 urban layer was digitized manually due to the spectral incompatibility between the bands of the Landsat sensor 5 and 7, and the Landsat sensor 8. Then, we build a road density map and the spatial relationship of the urban centers with the road influence area was evaluated. For the year 2000, 103 urban polygons were mapped, whilst for 2014 were identified ten polygons more with a mapped minimum area of 24 ha. The main results indicated that in the state has increased 72.3 km2 urban area from 2000 to 2014. This represents an average growth rate of 1.8% per year. The most widespread municipalities are located in the region of Valle del Mezquital, however, Mineral de la Reforma, Tetepango, Tizayuca and Pachuca showed growth rates of 183.44%, 102% 94% and 68.5% in fourteen years, respectively. According to the road map density, these municipalities are located in areas of greatest influence of infrastructure as the Arco Norte highway in the state. The above findings, lead us to conclude that the Mezquital Valley and the Basin of Mexico are potential areas of urban spreading and it is associated with road development in the Central Mexico.

Total Water Management, the New Paradigm for Urban Water Systems

Science.gov (United States)

There is a growing need for urban water managers to take a more holistic view of their water resource systems as population growth, urbanization, and current resource management practices put different stresses on local water resources and urban infrastructure. Total Water Manag...

Monitoring urban growth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller-Jensen, Lasse; Kofie, Richard; Yankson, Paul

2007-01-01

The extent of the urbanized areas of Accra is assessed from Landsat-TM satellite images for the year 2002 and compared to similar information for the years 1985 and 1991. A texture-based classification method is applied. The results show that the urbanization of the fringe areas of Accra is occur......The extent of the urbanized areas of Accra is assessed from Landsat-TM satellite images for the year 2002 and compared to similar information for the years 1985 and 1991. A texture-based classification method is applied. The results show that the urbanization of the fringe areas of Accra...

Population and prehistory I: Food-dependent population growth in constant environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Charlotte T; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2008-06-01

We present a demographic model that describes the feedbacks between food supply, human mortality and fertility rates, and labor availability in expanding populations, where arable land area is not limiting. This model provides a quantitative framework to describe how environment, technology, and culture interact to influence the fates of preindustrial agricultural populations. We present equilibrium conditions and derive approximations for the equilibrium population growth rate, food availability, and other food-dependent measures of population well-being. We examine how the approximations respond to environmental changes and to human choices, and find that the impact of environmental quality depends upon whether it manifests through agricultural yield or maximum (food-independent) survival rates. Human choices can complement or offset environmental effects: greater labor investments increase both population growth and well-being, and therefore can counteract lower agricultural yield, while fertility control decreases the growth rate but can increase or decrease well-being. Finally we establish equilibrium stability criteria, and argue that the potential for loss of local stability at low population growth rates could have important consequences for populations that suffer significant environmental or demographic shocks.

Urbanization in Africa since independence.

Science.gov (United States)

Tarver, J D

1994-01-01

Over 185 million inhabitants were added to the urban areas of Africa between 1950 and 1990. Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland is the most highly urbanized, with 55% in 1990; while less than a quarter of Eastern Africa's population is living in urban centers. By the year 2015 more than half of Africa's population will be living in urban areas. Many parts of Africa have suffered prolonged droughts, overgrazing, locust infestations, and desertification. Millions have become refugees from natural disasters, political oppression, and rural poverty. The large exodus from Africa's rural areas has gone to cities but the large cities have attracted disproportionately large numbers of destitute migrants. Alexandria (1 million), Cairo (2.4 million) and the Witwatersrand in South Africa were the only African urban agglomerations with at least one million inhabitants in 1950. By 1990 the two Egyptian cities together had 12.7 million inhabitants and the Witwatersrand some 5 million, whereas the other 25 urban agglomerations with a million inhabitants each in 1990 had a total population of about 51 million. Lagos, Kinshasa, and Algiers ranged from 3 to 7.7 million. The capitals are the largest cities in at least 54 of the 59 countries and territories. Lagos, Nairobi, and Dar es Salaam are disproportionately larger than the next most populous cities in their countries. The 28 urban agglomerations with at least one million inhabitants had a total population of 70 million in 1990, and are projected to reach 100 million in the year 2000. Overall, Africa's urban population is projected to increase by approximately 135 million in the 1990-2000 decade (from 217 million to 352 million). About 105 million of the growth probably will occur in the smaller urban centers. The total African urban population is likely to reach one billion inhabitants within the next 50 years. It stood at 32 million in 1950. Presently, the United Nations projects 912 million urban residents

Urbanization and Inequality/Poverty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brantley Liddle

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The level of world urbanization has crossed the 50% mark, and nearly all future population growth is projected to occur in cities. Cities are disproportionately wealthy, but are associated with poverty, too. Addressing the dual challenges of urbanization and poverty is key to achieving sustainable development. This paper performs cross-sectional regressions, based on Kuznets, as a starting point for understanding the relationship between urbanization and poverty/inequality indicators. Increases in gross domestic product per capita unambiguously lowered poverty and narrowed rural-urban gaps. By contrast, levels of urbanization were either unrelated to poverty/inequality indicators and measures of rural-urban gaps, or had a nonlinear effect where, initially, increases in urbanization likewise led to improvements in those areas, while at higher levels of urbanization, increases in urbanization exacerbated poverty and rural-urban gaps.

Colony Development and Reproductive Success of Bumblebees in an Urban Gradient

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Chatura Vaidya

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Approximately 35% of all crop production is dependent on animal-mediated pollination. Many wild bee species are declining rapidly across North America and Europe, a potential consequence of land-use change driven by agricultural intensification and urbanization. In this study we assessed the impact of urbanization on the reproductive success and population growth rate of bumblebees in an urbanization gradient. We placed experimental nests in ten sites; all except one were community gardens, ranging from a 0–99% degree of urbanization. Reproductive success and colony size were positively correlated with cumulative weight gain of the nests (p < 0.05. We did not find an effect of urbanization on the population growth rate of the nests or on forager activity (p > 0.05. Growth rate was strongly negatively affected by the abundance of wax moth larvae (p < 0.05 and positively correlated with parasite diversity (p < 0.05 and the number of foragers entering the nest (p < 0.01. With this study we show that not only bottom-up but also top-down effects are equally important for pollinator population dynamics.

Constructing an Urban Population Model for Medical Insurance Scheme Using Microsimulation Techniques

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Linping Xiong

2012-01-01

Full Text Available China launched a pilot project of medical insurance reform in 79 cities in 2007 to cover urban nonworking residents. An urban population model was created in this paper for China’s medical insurance scheme using microsimulation model techniques. The model made it clear for the policy makers the population distributions of different groups of people, the potential urban residents entering the medical insurance scheme. The income trends of units of individuals and families were also obtained. These factors are essential in making the challenging policy decisions when considering to balance the long-term financial sustainability of the medical insurance scheme.

Prediction of future urban growth using CA-Markov for urban sustainability planning of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Achmad, A.; Irwansyah, M.; Ramli, I.

2018-03-01

Banda Aceh experienced rapid growth, both physically, socially, and economically, after the Tsunami that devastated it the end of December in 2004. Hence policy controls are needed to direct the pattern of urban growth to achieve sustainable development for the future. The purpose of this paper is to generate a growth model for Banda Aceh using the CA-Markov process. By knowing the changes in land use between 2005 and 2009 from the results of previous research, simulations for 2013, 2019 and 2029 using the application of Idrisi@Selva. CA-Markov models were prepared to determine the quantity of changes. The simulation results showed that, after the Tsunami, the City of Banda Aceh tended to grow towards the coast. For the control of the LUC, the Banda Aceh City government needs to prepare comprehensive and detailed maps and inventory of LUC for the city to provide basic data and information needed for monitoring and evaluation that can be done effectively and efficiently. An institution for monitoring and evaluation of the urban landscape and the LUC should be formed immediately. This institution could consist of representatives from government, academia, community leaders, the private sector and other experts. The findings from this study can be used to start the monitoring and evaluation of future urban growth. Especially for the coastal areas, the local government should immediately prepare special spatial coastal area plans to control growth in those areas and to ensure that the economic benefits from disaster mitigation and coastal protection are preserved. For the development of the city in the future, it is necessary to achieve a balance between economic development, and social welfare with environmental protection and disaster mitigation. iIt will become a big challenge to achieve sustainable development for the future.

Geosimulation of urban growth and demographic decline in the Ruhr: a case study for 2025 using the artificial intelligence of cells and agents

Science.gov (United States)

Rienow, Andreas; Stenger, Dirk

2014-07-01

The Ruhr is an "old acquaintance" in the discourse of urban decline in old industrialized cities. The agglomeration has to struggle with archetypical problems of former monofunctional manufacturing cities. Surprisingly, the image of a shrinking city has to be refuted if you shift the focus from socioeconomic wealth to its morphological extension. Thus, it is the objective of this study to meet the challenge of modeling urban sprawl and demographic decline by combining two artificial intelligent solutions: The popular urban cellular automaton SLEUTH simulates urban growth using four simple but effective growth rules. In order to improve its performance, SLEUTH has been modified among others by combining it with a robust probability map based on support vector machines. Additionally, a complex multi-agent system is developed to simulate residential mobility in a shrinking city agglomeration: residential mobility and the housing market of shrinking city systems focuses on the dynamic of interregional housing markets implying the development of potential dwelling areas. The multi-agent system comprises the simulation of population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking city agglomerations. Both models are calibrated and validated regarding their localization and quantification performance. Subsequently, the urban landscape configuration and composition of the Ruhr 2025 are simulated. A simple spatial join is used to combine the results serving as valuable inputs for future regional planning in the context of multifarious demographic change and preceding urban growth.

Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio

Science.gov (United States)

Aburas, Maher Milad; Ho, Yuek Ming; Ramli, Mohammad Firuz; Ash'aari, Zulfa Hanan

2017-07-01

The creation of an accurate simulation of future urban growth is considered one of the most important challenges in urban studies that involve spatial modeling. The purpose of this study is to improve the simulation capability of an integrated CA-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model using CA-MC based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and CA-MC based on Frequency Ratio (FR), both applied in Seremban, Malaysia, as well as to compare the performance and accuracy between the traditional and hybrid models. Various physical, socio-economic, utilities, and environmental criteria were used as predictors, including elevation, slope, soil texture, population density, distance to commercial area, distance to educational area, distance to residential area, distance to industrial area, distance to roads, distance to highway, distance to railway, distance to power line, distance to stream, and land cover. For calibration, three models were applied to simulate urban growth trends in 2010; the actual data of 2010 were used for model validation utilizing the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Kappa coefficient methods Consequently, future urban growth maps of 2020 and 2030 were created. The validation findings confirm that the integration of the CA-MC model with the FR model and employing the significant driving force of urban growth in the simulation process have resulted in the improved simulation capability of the CA-MC model. This study has provided a novel approach for improving the CA-MC model based on FR, which will provide powerful support to planners and decision-makers in the development of future sustainable urban planning.

Personality Traits and Behavioral Syndromes in Differently Urbanized Populations of House Sparrows (Passer domesticus)

Science.gov (United States)

Bókony, Veronika; Kulcsár, Anna; Tóth, Zoltán; Liker, András

2012-01-01

Urbanization creates novel environments for wild animals where selection pressures may differ drastically from those in natural habitats. Adaptation to urban life involves changes in various traits, including behavior. Behavioral traits often vary consistently among individuals, and these so-called personality traits can be correlated with each other, forming behavioral syndromes. Despite their adaptive significance and potential to act as constraints, little is known about the role of animal personality and behavioral syndromes in animals' adaptation to urban habitats. In this study we tested whether differently urbanized habitats select for different personalities and behavioral syndromes by altering the population mean, inter-individual variability, and correlations of personality traits. We captured house sparrows (Passer domesticus) from four different populations along the gradient of urbanization and assessed their behavior in standardized test situations. We found individual consistency in neophobia, risk taking, and activity, constituting three personality axes. On the one hand, urbanization did not consistently affect the mean and variance of these traits, although there were significant differences between some of the populations in food neophobia and risk taking (both in means and variances). On the other hand, both urban and rural birds exhibited a behavioral syndrome including object neophobia, risk taking and activity, whereas food neophobia was part of the syndrome only in rural birds. These results indicate that there are population differences in certain aspects of personality in house sparrows, some of which may be related to habitat urbanization. Our findings suggest that urbanization and/or other population-level habitat differences may not only influence the expression of personality traits but also alter their inter-individual variability and the relationships among them, changing the structure of behavioral syndromes. PMID:22574204

Migrant entrepreneurship and new urban economic opportunities

OpenAIRE

Nijkamp, P.; Sahin, M.; Baycan, T.

2009-01-01

Nowadays, migrants form a significant share of the urban population, and their business is critical for urban economic growth. This paper addresses the key factors determining the position of migrant entrepreneurs in the urban economy in the Netherlands. In order to develop a solid assessment of CSFs for migrant entrepreneurs, and to understand business performance in a competitive urban environment, this study will investigate the entrepreneurial behaviour of migrants in Dutch cities from a ...

Creating Programs for Africa's Urban Youth : The Challenge of Marginalization

OpenAIRE

Sommers, Marc

2007-01-01

Urban youth constitute the vanguard of Africa's twinned demographic transformations. Sub-Saharan Africa's youth population growth rate is the highest of any world region (North Africa's rate is also high). In addition, Africa's urban growth rate is the world's highest. Taken together, the need to provide adequate, effective support for urban youth is critical to fostering Africa's development – and its political, social and economic stability. This article is designed to help address this nee...

Water quantity and quality at the urban-rural interface

Science.gov (United States)

Ge Sun; B. Graeme Lockaby

2012-01-01

Population growth and urban development dramatically alter natural watershed ecosystem structure and functions and stress water resources. We review studies on the impacts of urbanization on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes underlying stream water quantity and water quality issues, as well as water supply challenges in an urban environment. We conclude that...

Urban Growth and Land-Use Structure in Two Mediterranean Regions

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Luca Salvati

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The present study develops an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA with the aim to assess changes over time in the distribution of selected uses of land in two Mediterranean urban regions (Rome and Athens with different morphology and economic functions. The study uses global and local Moran’s indexes of spatial autocorrelation to describe the land-use structure observed in the two cities in mid-1970s and late-2000s, and debates on the divergent contribution of compact growth and scattered urban expansion to changes in land use. The analysis identifies fringe landscapes as a key target for urban containment policies in sprawling cities.

Political economy of population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehta, S; Mehta, H S

1987-01-01

Tracing the origin of political economy as a class-science, this paper focuses on the political economy of population growth. Exposing the limitations of Malthusian ideas and their invalidity even for the capitalist economies, it discusses the subsequent revival of the Malthusian model during the period of de-colonization and the misinterpretation of the relationship between population growth and development in the developing and developed countries. Taking India, China, and Japan as some case studies, the paper examines the relationship between birth rate levels and some correlates. It elaborates on the Indian experience, emphasizing the association of population growth with poverty and unemployment and lays bare some of the hidden causes of these phenomena. The authors examine some interstate variations in India and identify constraints and prospects of the existing population policy. The paper proposes outlines of a democratic population policy as an integral part of India's development strategy which should recognize human beings not simply as consumers but also as producers of material values. It pleads for 1) restructuring of property relations; 2) bringing down the mortality rates and raising of the literacy levels, especially among females; and 3) improving nutritional levels, as prerequisites for bringing down birth rates.

Urban Growth and Transportation

OpenAIRE

Gilles Duranton; Matthew A. Turner

2012-01-01

We estimate the effects of major roads and public transit on the growth of major cities in the US between 1980 and 2000. We find that a 10% increase in a city’s stock of roads causes about a 2% increase in its population and employment and a small decrease in its share of poor households over this 20 year period. We also find that a 10% increase in a city’s stock of large buses causes about a 0.8% population increase and a small increase in the share of poor households over this period. To es...

Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates

Science.gov (United States)

Schwindt, Adam R.; Winkelman, Dana L.

2016-01-01

Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L−1 and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

Studying the factors affecting urban dispersion in mashhad metropolis

African Journals Online (AJOL)

solutions to control this problem. The tools used in this research were GIS software for mapping, quantitative methods of Holdren Model, urban primacy index, and area to population growth rate for review and analysis, and at first by examining area to population growth rate, Mashhad- developmental process map, Holdren ...

Population growth and its implications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Badii, M. H.

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Human populations have grown at an unprecedented rate over the past three centuries. By 2001, the world population stood at 6.2 billion people. If the current trend of 1.4 % per year persists, the population will double in 51years. Most of that growth will occur in the less developed countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. There is a serious concern that the number of humans in the world and our impact on the environment will overload the life support systems of the earth. The crude birth rate is the number of births in a year divided by the average population. A more accurate measure of growth is the general fertility rate, which takes into account the age structure and fecundity of the population. The crude birth rate minus the crude death rate gives the rate of natural increase. When this rate reaches a level at which people are just replacing themselves, zero population growth is achieved. In the more highly developed countries of the world, growth has slowed are even reversed in recent years so that without immigration from other areas, population would be declining. The change from high birth and death rates that accompanies in industrialization is called a demographic transition. Many developing nations have already begun this transition. Death rates have fallen, but birth rates remain high. Some demographers believe that as infant mortality drops and economic development progresses so that people in these countries can be sure of secure future, they will complete the transition to a stable population or a high standard living. While larger populations bring many problems, they also may be a valuable resource of energy, intelligence, and enterprise that will make it possible to overcome resource limitation problems. A social just view argues that a more equitable distribution of wealth might reduce both excess population growth and environmental degradation. We have many more options now for controlling fertility than were available

Gender, vulnerability, and violence in urban Pakistan | IDRC ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2016-09-30

Sep 30, 2016 ... SERIES: IMPACT STORIES | SAFE AND INCLUSIVE CITIES ... and violence in urban Pakistan (PDF, 198KB) and about the Safe and Inclusive Cities initiative. ... Economic growth is driving population growth in Indian cities, ...

Patterns of population change in Ghana (1984-2000)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller-Jensen, Lasse; Knudsen, Michael Helt

2008-01-01

  The study addresses population dynamics in Ghana on the urban and regional levels between 1984 and 2000. At the urban level, the development trends are analyzed for urban localities (population above 5,000) on the basis of geo-coded census data. Potential driving forces for rapid population gro...... with a more in-depth discussion of the development characteristics of Ghana's Western Region. This region has experienced one of the highest regional population growth rates, mainly due to its status as a ‘frontier' for cocoa production....

Total Water Management: The New Paradigm for Urban Water Resources Planning

Science.gov (United States)

There is a growing need for urban water managers to take a more holistic view of their water resource systems as population growth, urbanization, and current resource management practices put different stresses on local water resources and urban infrastructure. Total Water Manag...

Iowa Population Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Tait, John L.; Johnson, Arthur H.

The trends in population distribution and the composition of Iowa's population are reported in this document in order to provide the leaders and citizens of Iowa with information to assist them in making decisions relating to growth and development. Birth and death rates, rural and urban residence, population by race, and age structure are…

The Urban Nexus: Contradictions and Dilemmas of (PostCommunist (SubUrbanization in Romania

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Liliana Dumitrache

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The process of urbanization in Romania was a very tumultuous and slightly different one compared to other Central and Eastern European countries, being marked by the constant willingness to increase the degree of urbanization. The communist period was the most significant from this point of view, by considering both the number of newly declared towns and urban population growth. The urbanization of communist era corroborated with the excessive and forced industrialization has generated imbalances in the urban system and created distortions in the urban hierarchy. However, the legislative inconsistency and the lack of urban regulations during the post – communist period have lead to the increasing number of new (quasi urban units (many of which without urban amenities to the chaotic sub-urbanization of cities and urban decline. In many cases, the ability of local authorities to manage the urban development in the early years of transition has been hampered by inadequate legislation that regulates the urban growth in a completely different socio-economic system. Thus, the lacks of specific urban policies and urban regeneration plans have determined indirectly a hypertrophic evolution and an uncontrolled suburban expansion. Bucharest, the capital of the country has been most affected by these processes determining multilayered space transformation within the city and open space conversion to commercial and residential use, both affecting the urban environment and quality of life of urban-rural communities. The paper focuses on the patterns, the driving forces and the consequences of two opposing processes: socialist forced urbanization vs. post-socialist chaotic urbanization unfolding across the national urban landscape.

The Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Urban Growth Using Remote Sensing and Intelligent Algorithms, Case of Mahabad, Iran

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Alì Soltani

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The simulation of urban growth can be considered as a useful way for analyzing the complex process of urban physical evolution. The aim of this study is to model and simulate the complex patterns of land use change by utilizing remote sensing and artificial intelligence techniques in the fast growing city of Mahabad, north-west of Iran which encountered with several environmental subsequences. The key subject is how to allocate optimized weight into effective parameters upon urban growth and subsequently achieving an improved simulation. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN algorithm was used to allocate the weight via an iteration approach. In this way, weight allocation was carried out by the ANN training accomplishing through time-series satellite images representing urban growth process. Cellular Automata (CA was used as the principal motor of the model and then ANN applied to find suitable scale of parameters and relations between potential factors affecting urban growth. The general accuracy of the suggested model and obtained Fuzzy Kappa Coefficient confirms achieving better results than classic CA models in simulating nonlinear urban evolution process.

The Population Growth and Carrying Capacity in Semarang City

Science.gov (United States)

Hariyanto; Hadi, Sudharto P.; Buchori, Imam

2018-02-01

Population growth and development of city activities take some lands to carry them. As a result, land use competition happens among persons, society or sector. Land necessity for settlement, industry, or sector has taken over farm land, therefore farm land has been converted intensively and massively. Chronologically, population growth will cause land necessity increase. Unproductive land, especially farm land will be converted. Furthermore, farm land conversion will cause carrying capacity change. Carrying capacity has certain bio capacity. With the population growth, it will increase resource consumption; on the other side, farm land conversion will decrease carrying capacity. The objective of the study is to know about the influence of population growth towards carrying capacity (bio capacity) in Semarang city. Land consumption per capita is indeed influenced by city population, the higher the population is, the lower the land consumption per capita. With the population growth, it will influence carrying capacity. Carrying capacity here is the ratio of area to population. Analytical descriptive method is applied in the study with all sub-districts in Semarang city as the analysis unit. Population here is sub-district area and population per sub-district in Semarang city. Population growth data period is from 2000 until 2015. Main variables of the study are area per sub-district, population, population growth, carrying capacity. Result of the study shows significant influence of carrying capacity decrease, especially some outskirts in Semarang city. This condition happens because the outskirts in Semarang city tend to have dense population growth. Range of carrying capacity in Semarang city is from 0,007 to 0,117 of 0 to 1. Almost all sub-districts in Semarang city show miserable condition, except Mijen and Tugu. The conclusion of the study is that population will decrease carrying capacity. Therefore, the government should control population growth by paying

Urbanization is Associated with Increased Trends in Cardiovascular Mortality Among Indigenous Populations: the PAI Study

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Anderson da Costa Armstrong

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background: The cardiovascular risk burden among diverse indigenous populations is not totally known and may be influenced by lifestyle changes related to the urbanization process. Objectives: To investigate the cardiovascular (CV mortality profile of indigenous populations during a rapid urbanization process largely influenced by governmental infrastructure interventions in Northeast Brazil. Methods: We assessed the mortality of indigenous populations (≥ 30 y/o from 2007 to 2011 in Northeast Brazil (Bahia and Pernambuco states. Cardiovascular mortality was considered if the cause of death was in the ICD-10 CV disease group or if registered as sudden death. The indigenous populations were then divided into two groups according to the degree of urbanization based on anthropological criteria:9,10 Group 1 - less urbanized tribes (Funi-ô, Pankararu, Kiriri, and Pankararé; and Group 2 - more urbanized tribes (Tuxá, Truká, and Tumbalalá. Mortality rates of highly urbanized cities (Petrolina and Juazeiro in the proximity of indigenous areas were also evaluated. The analysis explored trends in the percentage of CV mortality for each studied population. Statistical significance was established for p value < 0.05. Results: There were 1,333 indigenous deaths in tribes of Bahia and Pernambuco (2007-2011: 281 in Group 1 (1.8% of the 2012 group population and 73 in Group 2 (3.7% of the 2012 group population, CV mortality of 24% and 37%, respectively (p = 0.02. In 2007-2009, there were 133 deaths in Group 1 and 44 in Group 2, CV mortality of 23% and 34%, respectively. In 2009-2010, there were 148 deaths in Group 1 and 29 in Group 2, CV mortality of 25% and 41%, respectively. Conclusions: Urbanization appears to influence increases in CV mortality of indigenous peoples living in traditional tribes. Lifestyle and environmental changes due to urbanization added to suboptimal health care may increase CV risk in this population.

Making a stand: five centuries of population growth in colonizing populations of Pinus ponderosa.

Science.gov (United States)

Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

2012-05-01

The processes underlying the development of new populations are important for understanding how species colonize new territory and form viable long-term populations. Life-history-mediated processes such as Allee effects and dispersal capability may interact with climate variability and site-specific factors to govern population success and failure over extended time frames. We studied four disjunct populations of ponderosa pine in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming to examine population growth spanning more than five centuries. The study populations are separated from continuous ponderosa pine forest by distances ranging from 15 to >100 km. Strong evidence indicates that the initial colonizing individuals are still present, yielding a nearly complete record of population history. All trees in each population were aged using dendroecological techniques. The populations were all founded between 1530 and 1655 cal yr CE. All show logistic growth patterns, with initial exponential growth followed by a slowing during the mid to late 20th century. Initial population growth was slower than expectations from a logistic regression model at all four populations, but increased during the mid-18th century. Initial lags in population growth may have been due to strong Allee effects. A combination of overcoming Allee effects and a transition to favorable climate conditions may have facilitated a mid-18th century pulse in population growth rate.

ASSESSMENT OF URBAN BUILT ENVIRONMENT QUALITY ON THE URBANIZED TERRITORIES: INTERREGIONAL COMPARISONS

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Ovsiannikova T. Yu.

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The urbanization and growth of a cities role, formation of cities as reference points of regions economic development are modern global tendencies. Cities concentrate human and investment resources on their territory, so in large part cities cause competitiveness of the regions in the global market. For preservation of competitive advantages regions need to form on the urbanized territories not only the favorable environment for business, but also for the population life. This paper deals with the problem of an assessment of urban built environment quality, due to urban built environment is a space-material basis of life quality of the population on the urbanized territories. The role of the cities in social and economic development of regions and their considerable influence on competitiveness of territories in the global competition for economic resources are proved. The method of assessment of urban built environment quality on the basis of calculation of an integrated index is proposed. Interregional comparisons on the example of regions of the Siberian and Ural Federal districts are completed. The offered method of assessment of urban built environment quality allows to range the urbanized territories on usefulness for living, to reveal most and the least developed spheres of city infrastructure.

Comparison of customised growth charts v. standard population

African Journals Online (AJOL)

pregnant diabetic population using population-based growth charts and customised growth charts. Methods. ... Of the patients, 44 had type 1, 66 type 2 and 173 gestational diabetes. The growth of .... with diabetic ketoacidosis, of whom one.

Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Ping

2005-01-01

BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

Urbanization and Effective Town Planning in Nigeria

African Journals Online (AJOL)

User

2011-04-19

Apr 19, 2011 ... Aluko, Ola E. - Dept. of Urban & Regional Planning, Faculty of ... studies and management is essentially for all town and country planning activities and ... In this case, most of the inhabitants are not in any way connected with the ... The impact of rapid population growth on urban development and conditions.

WHEN GROWTH IS NO LONGER THE NORM: TEACHING URBAN DESIGN IN A TIME OF TRANSFORMATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sujata Shetty

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Over the past few years, there has been increasing interest in cities that are rapidly losing population, so-called shrinking cities. This is becoming a global phenomenon, with shrinking cities found on every continent. The decline has been attributed variously to changing demographics, suburbanization, postsocialist transformation and deindustrialization. We are just beginning to develop approaches to dealing with shrinkage and its consequences – vacancy, abandonment, and limited public and private resources. However, there is currently little faith in the ability of design-related disciplines to deal with shrinking cities. Some authors argue that disciplines such as architecture, urban design and urban planning have always planned for growth and have reached their limits when dealing with shrinking cities (Oswalt, 2006. Still others suggest that restructuring should be seen as an opportunity (Vey, 2007. This paper challenges the first view and responds to the second by suggesting that design education can and must respond to these new realities. It critically examines a collaborative urban design studio that was part of an attempt to transform a part of a shrinking city in the American ‘rustbelt.’ The city, once a flourishing manufacturing center, is now facing steep economic decline along with the decline of the auto industry. It is also home to a university that is beginning efforts to revitalize neighborhoods adjacent to the campus. The studio, which brought together architecture and urban planning students from two different universities to work on a section of the city including the campus area, suggests possibilities for preparing students to work in an environment where economic growth is no longer the norm. The following lessons emerged: 1 In a shrinking city, urban designers may need to focus less on designing the solids and more on meeting the challenges of the voids. 2 In spite of urban design’s historical bias towards

Urban Expansion: a Geo-Spatial Approach for Temporal Monitoring of Loss of Agricultural Land

Science.gov (United States)

Sumari, N. S.; Shao, Z.; Huang, M.; Sanga, C. A.; Van Genderen, J. L.

2017-09-01

This paper presents some preliminary results from research on monitoring the urban growth of Shenzhen in China. Agriculture is still the pillar of national economies in many countries including China. Thus, agriculture contributes to population growth. Population growth follows either exponential or logistic growth models. These models can be examined using a time-series of geospatial data, mainly historical earth observation imagery from satellites such as LANDSAT. Such multitemporal data may provide insights into settlement analysis as well as on population dynamics and hence, quantify the loss of agricultural land. In this study, LANDSAT data of ten dates, at approximately five yearly intervals from 1977 to 2017 were used. The remote sensing techniques used for analysis of data for 40 years were image selection, then followed by geometric and radiometric corrections and mosaicking. Also, classification, remote sensing image fusion, and change detection methods were used. This research extracted the information on the amount, direction, and speed of urbanization, and hence, the number of hectares of agricultural land lost due to urban expansion. Several specific elements were used in the descriptive model of landscape changes and population dynamics of the city of Shenzhen in China. These elements are: i) quantify the urban changes, from a small town (37.000 people in the early 1970's) to the megalopolis of around 20 million habitants today. ii) Examining the rate of urban extension on the loss of agricultural landscape and population growth. iii) The loss of food production was analysed against the economic growth in the region. iv) The aspects of loss of agricultural land, area of built-up urban land, and increase in population are studied quantitatively, by the temporal analysis of earth observation geospatial data. The experimental results from this study show that the proposed method is effective in determining loss of agricultural land in any city due to

The Growth of Older Inmate Populations: How Population Aging Explains Rising Age at Admission.

Science.gov (United States)

Luallen, Jeremy; Cutler, Christopher

2017-09-01

Older inmates are the fastest growing segment of the prison population; however, the reasons for this are not well understood. One explanation is that the general population is aging, driving prison age distributions to change. For this article, we study the role of population aging in prison growth by investigating how the baby boom phenomenon of post-World War II has contributed to the growth of older inmate populations. We identify the impact of population aging using simulation methods that explain prison growth as the combination of criminal justice processes. Overall, we find evidence that population aging has played a significant role in explaining the growth of older inmate populations, in particular among inmates aged between 50 and 64 years, contributing to as much as half of the observed increase in these groups since 2000. This finding stands in contrast to the notion that population aging has little explanatory power in describing the growth of prison populations and implies that older inmate groups are more sensitive to compositional changes in the general population. We argue that prediction-based modeling of prison growth should more seriously consider the impacts and consequences of demographic shifts among older prisoner populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impacts of compact growth and electric vehicles on future air quality and urban exposures may be mixed.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Haofei; Stuart, Amy L

2017-01-15

'Smart' growth and electric vehicles are potential solutions to the negative impacts of worldwide urbanization on air pollution and health. However, the effects of planning strategies on distinct types of pollutants, and on human exposures, remain understudied. The goal of this work was to investigate the potential impacts of alternative urban designs for the area around Tampa, Florida USA, on emissions, ambient concentrations, and exposures to oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), 1,3-butadiene, and benzene. We studied three potential future scenarios: sprawling growth, compact growth, and 100% vehicle fleet electrification with compact growth. We projected emissions in the seven-county region to 2050 based on One Bay regional visioning plan data. We estimated pollutant concentrations in the county that contains Tampa using the CALPUFF dispersion model. We applied residential population projections to forecast acute (highest hour) and chronic (annual average) exposure. The compact scenario was projected to result in lower regional emissions of all pollutants than sprawl, with differences of -18%, -3%, and -14% for NO x , butadiene, and benzene, respectively. Within Hillsborough County, the compact form also had lower emissions, concentrations, and exposures than sprawl for NO x (-16%/-5% for acute/chronic exposures, respectively), but higher exposures for butadiene (+41%/+30%) and benzene (+21%/+9%). The addition of complete vehicle fleet electrification to the compact scenario mitigated these in-county increases for the latter pollutants, lowering predicted exposures to butadiene (-25%/-39%) and benzene (-5%/-19%), but also resulted in higher exposures to NO x (+81%/+30%) due to increased demand on power plants. These results suggest that compact forms may have mixed impacts on exposures and health. 'Smart' urban designs should consider multiple pollutants and the diverse mix of pollutant sources. Cleaner power generation will also likely be needed to support aggressive

An optimum city size? The scaling relationship for urban population and fine particulate (PM_2_._5) concentration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Lijian; Zhou, Weiqi; Pickett, Steward T.A.; Li, Weifeng; Li, Li

2016-01-01

We utilize the distribution of PM_2_._5 concentration and population in large cities at the global scale to illustrate the relationship between urbanization and urban air quality. We found: 1) The relationship varies greatly among continents and countries. Large cities in North America, Europe, and Latin America have better air quality than those in other continents, while those in China and India have the worst air quality. 2) The relationships between urban population size and PM_2_._5 concentration in large cities of different continents or countries were different. PM_2_._5 concentration in large cities in North America, Europe, and Latin America showed little fluctuation or a small increasing trend, but those in Africa and India represent a “U” type relationship and in China represent an inverse “U” type relationship. 3) The potential contribution of population to PM_2_._5 concentration was higher in the large cities in China and India, but lower in other large cities. - Highlights: • Urban population and PM_2_._5 concentration varies greatly among regions. • Urban population size increase does not always enhances PM_2_._5 concentration. • Population's potential contribution to PM_2_._5 concentration higher in China. - We utilize the distribution of PM_2_._5 concentration and population in large cities at the global scale to illustrate the relationship between urbanization and urban air quality.

Poverty-led higher population growth in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakibullah, A; Rahman, A

1996-01-01

This article discusses the issue whether population growth is exogenous or endogenous in the economic development of Bangladesh. Overpopulation adversely affects food supplies, foreign exchange, and human resources. Moreover, it depresses savings per capita and retards growth of physical capital per labor. Underdeveloped countries, like Bangladesh, are faced with the problem of allocating resources between infrastructure, education, and health service that are essential for human capital development and population control measures. With this, determination whether fertility is exogenous or endogenous is important for policy purposes in the context of Bangladesh. Results showed that there is a correlation between population growth and real gross domestic products per capita. Based on Granger causality test, population growth is endogenous in the development process of Bangladesh and its overpopulation is due to poverty. Thus, there is a need for appropriate policy to take measures to improve human capital and decrease fertility rates.

Cardiovascular Morbidity Profile Of Population Aged 60 Years And Above In Rural And Urban Areas Of Kanpur

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saurabh Goel

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Cardiovascular morbidity is a major contributor towards old age health problems which requires specialized care and if left unattended can deteriorate the quality of life and also lead to mortality. Therefore a study was planned to find out the prevalence of cardiovascular morbidity among geriatric population living in rural and urban areas ofKanpur.Objective: To find out the prevalence of cardiovascular morbidity in geriatric population in rural and urban area of Kanpur and also to study the pattern of cardiovascular morbidity in two areas.Material and methods: a cross sectional study was carried out in a randomly selected rural and urban area of Kanpur. 443 geriatrics in rural and 401 in urban area were interviewed and physically examined.Results: Geriatrics constituted 8.2% and 7.7% of total population in rural and urban area respectively. Majority ofpopulation in both areas belonged to 60-70years age group i.e. 78.8% and 75.8% respectively. 12.2% of rural geriatric and 12.5% of urban geriatric were suffering from some or other kind of cardiovascular morbidity. In rural area 39.1%>of geriatric population is hypertensive while in urban area hypertension is prevalent in 41.6%> of geriatric population. 98. l%>of morbid in rural and 86.0% in urban area were not doing any kind of exercise. A majority of population suffering from cardiovascular morbidity were not smoking currently. Majority i.e. 72.2% of geriatric population suffering from cardiovascular morbidity in rural area were having BMJ between 18.5-24.99 while in urban area 57.4% of them were having BMl>-25. Hypertensives consitiuted 57.4% in rural and 66.0% in urban area towards those who are suffering from cardiovascular morbidity.

Cardiovascular Morbidity Profile Of Population Aged 60 Years And Above In Rural And Urban Areas Of Kanpur

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saurabh Goel

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Cardiovascular morbidity is a major contributor towards old age health problems which requires specialized care and if left unattended can deteriorate the quality of life and also lead to mortality. Therefore a study was planned to find out the prevalence of cardiovascular morbidity among geriatric population living in rural and urban areas ofKanpur. Objective: To find out the prevalence of cardiovascular morbidity in geriatric population in rural and urban area of Kanpur and also to study the pattern of cardiovascular morbidity in two areas. Material and methods: a cross sectional study was carried out in a randomly selected rural and urban area of Kanpur. 443 geriatrics in rural and 401 in urban area were interviewed and physically examined. Results: Geriatrics constituted 8.2% and 7.7% of total population in rural and urban area respectively. Majority ofpopulation in both areas belonged to 60-70years age group i.e. 78.8% and 75.8% respectively. 12.2% of rural geriatric and 12.5% of urban geriatric were suffering from some or other kind of cardiovascular morbidity. In rural area 39.1%>of geriatric population is hypertensive while in urban area hypertension is prevalent in 41.6%> of geriatric population. 98. l%>of morbid in rural and 86.0% in urban area were not doing any kind of exercise. A majority of population suffering from cardiovascular morbidity were not smoking currently. Majority i.e. 72.2% of geriatric population suffering from cardiovascular morbidity in rural area were having BMJ between 18.5-24.99 while in urban area 57.4% of them were having BMl>-25. Hypertensives consitiuted 57.4% in rural and 66.0% in urban area towards those who are suffering from cardiovascular morbidity.

[Cities and oil. Historical and prospective aspects of the urban population of Venezuela].

Science.gov (United States)

Papail, J; Picquet, M

1989-01-01

The authors present a historical overview of urbanization in Venezuela. The impact of the oil economy on population change and spatial distribution is emphasized. A typology of cities based on socioeconomic function and on a demographic classification of urban centers is devised. Future trends in urbanization are also considered. (SUMMARY IN ENG)

URBAN GROWTH AND WATER QUALITY IN THIMPHU, BHUTAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nandu Giri

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Detailed study was undertaken in 2008 and 2009 on assessment of water quality of River Wang Chhu which flows through Thimphu urban area, the capital city of Bhutan. The water samples were examined at upstream of urban area, within the urban area and its downstream. The water quality was analyzed by studying the physico-chemical, biological and benthic macro-invertebrates. The water quality data obtained during present study are discussed in relation to land use/land cover changes (LULC and various ongoing human activities at upstream, within the each activity areas and it’s downstream. Analyses of satellite imagery of 1990 and 2008 using GIS revealed that over a period of eighteen years the forest, scrub and agricultural areas have decreased whereas urban area and road network have increased considerably. The forest cover, agriculture area and scrub decreased from 43.3% to 42.57%, 6.88% to 5.33% and 42.55% to 29.42%, respectively. The LULC changes effect water quality in many ways. The water temperature, pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, turbidity, nitrate, phosphate, chloride, total coliform, and biological oxygen demand were lower at upstream and higher in urban area. On the other hand dissolved oxygen was found higher at upstream and lower in urban area. The pollution sensitive benthic macro- invertebrates population were dominant at upstream sampling sites whereas pollution tolerant benthic macro-invertebrates were found abundant in urban area and its immediate downstream. The rapid development of urban infrastructure in Thimphu city may be posing serious threats to water regime in terms of its quality. Though the deterioration of water quality is restricted to a few localized areas, the trend is serious and needs proper attention of policy planners and decision makers. Proper treatment of effluents from urban areas is urgently needed to reduce water pollution in such affected areas to check further deterioration of water quality

URBAN GROWTH AND WATER QUALITY IN THIMPHU, BHUTAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nandu Giri

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Detailed study was undertaken in 2008 and 2009 on assessment of water quality of River Wang Chhu which flows through Thimphu urban area, the capital city of Bhutan. The water samples were examined at upstream of urban area, within the urban area and its downstream. The water samples were analyzed by studying the physico-chemical, biological and benthic macro-invertebrates. The water quality data obtained during present study are discussed in relation to land use/land cover changes(LULC and various ongoing human activities at upstream, within the each activity areas and it’s downstream. Analyses of satellite imagery of 1990 and 2008 using GIS revealed that over a period of eighteen years the forest, scrub and agricultural areas have decreased whereas urban area and road network have increased considerably. The forest cover, agriculture area and scrub decreased from 43.3% to 42.57%, 6.88% to 5.33% and 42.55% to 29.42%, respectively. The LULC changes effect water quality in many ways. The water temperature, pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, turbidity, nitrate, phosphate, chloride, total coliform, and biological oxygen demand were lower at upstream and higher in urban area. On the other hand dissolved oxygen was found higher at upstream and lower in urban area. The pollution sensitive benthic macro-invertebrates population were dominant at upstream sampling sites whereas pollution tolerant benthic macro-invertebrates were found abundant in urban area and its immediate downstream. The rapid development of urban infrastructure in Thimphu city may be posing serious threats to water regime in terms of its quality. Though the deterioration of water quality is restricted to a few localized areas, the trend is serious and needs proper attention of policy planners and decision makers. Proper treatment of effluents from urban areas is urgently needed to reduce water pollution in such affected areas to check further deterioration of water quality

Town and country reptiles: A review of reptilian responses to urbanization.

Science.gov (United States)

French, Susannah S; Webb, Alison C; Hudson, Spencer B; Virgin, Emily E

2018-06-04

The majority of the world population is now inhabiting urban areas, and with staggering population growth urbanization is also increasing. While work studying the effects of changing landscapes and specific urban pressures on wildlife is beginning to amass, the majority of this work focuses on avian or mammalian species. However, the effects of urbanization likely vary substantially across taxonomic groups due to differences in habitat requirements and life history. The current paper aims first to broaden the review of urban effects across reptilian species; second, to summarize the responses of reptilian fauna to specific urban features; and third, to assess the directionality of individual and population level responses to urbanization in reptile species. Based on our findings, urban research in reptilian taxa is lacking in the following areas: 1) investigating interactive or additive urban factors 2) measuring multiple morphological, behavioral and physiological endpoints within an animal, 3) linking individual to population-level responses, and 4) testing genetic/genomic differences across an urban environment as evidence for selective pressures.

Urban lymphatic filariasis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simonsen, Paul Erik; Mwakitalu, Mbutolwe E.

2013-01-01

parasite species causing LF in humans, only Wuchereria bancrofti has been documented to have a significant potential for urban transmission. This is primarily because one of its vectors, Culex quinquefasciatus, thrives and proliferates excessively in crowded city areas with poor sanitary, sewerage...... impact. However, with rapid and unplanned growth of cities in the developing world, there is a need also to consider LF transmission and control in urban settings. Here, we review currently available knowledge on urban LF and the environmental and socio-economic basis for its occurrence. Among the three...... and drainage facilities. For this reason, urban LF also often shows a marked focality in distribution, with most cases clustered in areas inhabited by the less privileged city populations. More knowledge on urban LF is needed, in particular on its socio-economic and human behavioural context, on the potential...

Detection of Urban-Induced Rainfall Anomalies in a Major Coastal City

Science.gov (United States)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Burian, Steven J.

2002-01-01

Urban heat islands (UHIs) are caused by the heat-retaining properties of surfaces usually found in urban cities like asphalt and concrete. The UHI can typically be observed on the evening TV weather map as warmer temperatures over the downtown of major cities and cooler temperatures in the suburbs and surrounding rural areas. The UHI has now become a widely acknowledged, observed, and researched phenomenon because of its broad environmental and societal implications. Interest in the UHI will intensify in the future as existing urban areas expand and rural areas urbanize. By the year 2025, more than 60% of the world s population will live in cities, with higher percentages expected in developed nations. The urban growth rate in the United States, for example, is estimated to be 12.5%, and the recent 2000 Census found that more than 80% of the population currently lives in urban areas. Furthermore, the U.S. population is not only growing but is tending to concentrate more in urban areas within the environmentally sensitive coastal zones. Urban growth creates unique and often contentious issues for policymakers related to land use zoning, transportation planning, agricultural production, housing and development, pollution, and natural resources protection. Urban expansion and its associated TJHIs also have measurable impacts on weather and climate processes. The UHI has been documented to affect local and regional temperature, wind patterns, and air quality

Assessing the Impact of Population Growth, Climate Change, and Land Use Change on Water Resources in India

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.

2014-12-01

India is poised to become the most populous country in the world by 2019 and reach a population of over 2 billion by 2050 based on current growth rates. It is also a region which will be under severe socio-economic and environmental stress if mitigation efforts are not adapted. In the past 10 years the population of India has grown by an average rate of 17 million people per year. In addition to unprecedented population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization are straining the overburdened environmental system. This rapid growth in population, urbanization and industrialized will result in increased demand for food, requiring expansion of agricultural resources. Since total agricultural land in India has been relatively constant over the past 10 years the demand for additional food has to be partly met by enhanced production on existing land. Arable land in India has declined by around 3% according to FAOSTAT while the total agricultural area under irrigation has increased by about 9% thus further straining its water resources. In addition projections for future climate indicate that India is one of the regions where water resources are expected to be negatively impacted. Total agriculture water withdrawal in India increased by approximately 18 % from 2000-2010 while the total per capita water withdrawal increased by over 9% from 2000-2010. Total freshwater withdrawal as percentage of renewable water resources was around 40% in 2010. In addition, recent mandates of biofuel policies in India are also expected to impact its water resources. The combined impact of these various factors on future water availability in India could be one of the most severe globally due its unprecedented increase in population, food production and industrialization. In this study we assess the impact of land use and climate change on water resources over southern India in the face of a growing population and interest in development of national biofuel supplies. We use

Using Arc GIS to analyse urban growth towards torrent risk areas (Aswan city as a case study)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamdy, Omar; Zhao, Shichen; Salheen, Mohamed A; Eid, Y Y

2014-01-01

Areas suffering from storm water drains are considered to be the places most at risk, water torrents have an effect on urban areas and can cause a lot of damage to buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, there is dangerous situation whereby urban growth is occuring towards at-risk areas. The urban growth rate in risk areas rose up to 24.9% in 2001, and reached 48.8% in 2013. Urban growth in ''Abouelreesh'' village had been influenced by the construction of larger buildings, because most people were looking forward to live in bigger houses. We can discover the previous problem by observing the average size increase of the buildings' areas from 2001 until 2013, especially in risky areas where the average building's area had grown from 254 m2 in 2001 to 411 m2 in 2013. This Phenomenon is considered to be very important factor which attracts the urban growth towards the risky areas in spite of the danger surrounding them

Overview of urban Growth Simulation: With examples from different cities

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Waldeck, L

2013-08-01

Full Text Available This presentation provides an overview of Urban Growth Simulation as a risk free means of assessing the future outcome of major policy and investment decisions with some examples of scenarios that were simulated in different South African cities....

The Effect of Urban Sprawls on Timber Harvesting

Science.gov (United States)

Stephen A. Barlow; Ian A Munn; David A. Cleaves; David L. Evans

1998-01-01

In Mississippi and Alabama, urban population growth is pushing development into rural areas. To study the impact of urbanization on timber harvesting, census and forest inventory data were combined in a geographic information system, and a logistic regression model was used to estimate the relationship between several variables and harvest probabilities....

Environmental degradation, energy consumption, population growth ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Based on the result, there is no evidence of unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions and energy consumption to economic growth and strong unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth to population growth was found. The long run and short run estimates ...

Patient satisfaction with community pharmacy: comparing urban and suburban chain-pharmacy populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Malewski, David F; Ream, Aimrie; Gaither, Caroline A

2015-01-01

Patient satisfaction with pharmaceutical care can be a strong predictor of medication and other health-related outcomes. Less understood is the role that location of pharmacies in urban or suburban environments plays in patient satisfaction with pharmacy and pharmacist services. The purpose of this study was to serve as a pilot examining urban and suburban community pharmacy populations for similarities and differences in patient satisfaction. Community pharmacy patients were asked to self-administer a 30-question patient satisfaction survey. Fifteen questions addressed their relationship with the pharmacist, 10 questions addressed satisfaction and accessibility of the pharmacy, and five questions addressed financial concerns. Five urban and five suburban pharmacies agreed to participate. Data analysis included descriptive statistics and chi-square analysis. Most patients reported high levels of satisfaction. Satisfaction with pharmacist relationship and service was 70% or higher with no significant differences between locations. There were significant differences between the urban and suburban patients regarding accessibility of pharmacy services, customer service and some patient/pharmacist trust issues. The significant differences between patient satisfaction in the suburban and urban populations warrant a larger study with more community pharmacies in other urban, suburban and rural locations to better understand and validate study findings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Strategies to reduce exclusion among populations living in urban slum settlements in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Rashid, Sabina Faiz

2009-08-01

The health and rights of populations living in informal or slum settlements are key development issues of the twenty-first century. As of 2007, the majority of the world's population lives in urban areas. More than one billion of these people, or one in three city-dwellers, live in inadequate housing with no or a few basic resources. In Bangladesh, urban slum settlements tend to be located in low-lying, flood-prone, poorly-drained areas, having limited formal garbage disposal and minimal access to safe water and sanitation. These areas are severely crowded, with 4-5 people living in houses of just over 100 sq feet. These conditions of high density of population and poor sanitation exacerbate the spread of diseases. People living in these areas experience social, economic and political exclusion, which bars them from society's basic resources. This paper overviews policies and actions that impact the level of exclusion of people living in urban slum settlements in Bangladesh, with a focus on improving the health and rights of the urban poor. Despite some strategies adopted to ensure better access to water and health, overall, the country does not have a comprehensive policy for urban slum residents, and the situation remains bleak.

Strategies to Reduce Exclusion among Populations Living in Urban Slum Settlements in Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

The health and rights of populations living in informal or slum settlements are key development issues of the twenty-first century. As of 2007, the majority of the world's population lives in urban areas. More than one billion of these people, or one in three city-dwellers, live in inadequate housing with no or a few basic resources. In Bangladesh, urban slum settlements tend to be located in low-lying, flood-prone, poorly-drained areas, having limited formal garbage disposal and minimal access to safe water and sanitation. These areas are severely crowded, with 4–5 people living in houses of just over 100 sq feet. These conditions of high density of population and poor sanitation exacerbate the spread of diseases. People living in these areas experience social, economic and political exclusion, which bars them from society's basic resources. This paper overviews policies and actions that impact the level of exclusion of people living in urban slum settlements in Bangladesh, with a focus on improving the health and rights of the urban poor. Despite some strategies adopted to ensure better access to water and health, overall, the country does not have a comprehensive policy for urban slum residents, and the situation remains bleak. PMID:19761090

OPEN SOURCE APPROACH TO URBAN GROWTH SIMULATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Petrasova

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Spatial patterns of land use change due to urbanization and its impact on the landscape are the subject of ongoing research. Urban growth scenario simulation is a powerful tool for exploring these impacts and empowering planners to make informed decisions. We present FUTURES (FUTure Urban – Regional Environment Simulation – a patch-based, stochastic, multi-level land change modeling framework as a case showing how what was once a closed and inaccessible model benefited from integration with open source GIS.We will describe our motivation for releasing this project as open source and the advantages of integrating it with GRASS GIS, a free, libre and open source GIS and research platform for the geospatial domain. GRASS GIS provides efficient libraries for FUTURES model development as well as standard GIS tools and graphical user interface for model users. Releasing FUTURES as a GRASS GIS add-on simplifies the distribution of FUTURES across all main operating systems and ensures the maintainability of our project in the future. We will describe FUTURES integration into GRASS GIS and demonstrate its usage on a case study in Asheville, North Carolina. The developed dataset and tutorial for this case study enable researchers to experiment with the model, explore its potential or even modify the model for their applications.

Spatiotemporal simulation of urban growth patterns using agent-based modeling: The case of Tehran

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jokar Arsanjani, J.; Helbich, M.; Vaz, E.

2013-01-01

Rapid urban growth is becoming a serious problem in most developing countries. Tehran, the capital of Iran, stands out as a vibrant metropolitan area, facing uncontrolled urban expansion. Public authorities and decision makers require planning criteria regarding possible spatial developments. To

[The urbanized societies of Latin America and the Caribbean: some dimensions and observations].

Science.gov (United States)

Ebanks, G E

1993-06-01

A demographic perspective on urbanization patterns in Latin America and the Caribbean is provided. The level and rate of urbanization and the hierarchies of urban places are considered, along with the determinants and consequences of these trends. Latin America and the Caribbean are the most urbanized of the developing regions, with almost 70% of the population classified as urban in 1991. Most Latin American and Caribbean countries have rural populations capable of maintaining continuous growth of the urban population for some time through internal migration and reclassification of localities. Latin American societies are urban in nature, and it is unlikely that decentralization and deconcentration policies will have significant repercussions. The Latin American urban population is estimated to have increased from 164 million in 1970 to 320 million in 1990, while the rural population increased from 122 to 128 million in the same years. Most governments of the region are preoccupied by the size of the urban population. There are too many urban residents to be absorbed in productive activities, but all require public services generally financed through taxation. The small tax bases result in frequent decisions to finance services through deficit spending. The size of the population and the level of urbanization may not be the principal agents of ecological deterioration or the greatest obstacles to development, but they play a significant role in these problems. Incorporating millions of urban residents into the productive sector of the economy is an important challenge for the development of these societies. The urban population in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to continue growing at significant rates until well into the next century. In most countries of the region, internal migration accounted for 30-40% of urban growth between 1950 and 1970, but its contribution loses importance as the level of urbanization exceeds 70% or so. The number of urban

Africa: rapid population increase retards development.

Science.gov (United States)

1993-10-01

The Organization of African Unity (OAU), the African Development Bank (ADB) and the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) have criticized African governments for not taking the problem of unchecked population growth seriously enough. "Until recently most African governments did not view rapid population growth as a matter for concern," said the OAU assistant secretary-general for political affairs, Machivenyika Mapuranga, at a seminar on 'population and development'. The OAU estimates that an annual average population increase of 3.1% far outstrips Africa's economic growth, which in 1992 was less than 1%. Mapuranga acknowledged that cutting the population increase is an uphill struggle, especially among rural communities. African agriculture is largely labor intensive, sustained by smallholders, which encourages farmers to have more children. Like other wage earners, African farmers look to support from their family when they grow old and, for that reason, the number of children also counts. But with agricultural production growing at an average annual rate of 2.5%, self-sufficiency in food remains an elusive goal. Cities in sub-Saharan Africa are growing much faster than the overall rate of population increase of 3.1% per year. Between 1980 and 1988 the region's urban population increased at the rate of 6.9% a year. Urban areas now account for nearly 30% of the sub-Saharan Africa population, currently put at 680 million. By 2025, approximately 700 million people are expected to live in urban areas. Despite migration to towns, the rural population is expected to rise more than 68%, reaching over 590 million. full text

Growth rate, population entropy, and perturbation theory.

OpenAIRE

Demetrius, L.

1989-01-01

This paper is concerned with the connection between two classes of population variables: measures of population growth rate—the Malthusian parameter, the net reproduction rate, the gross reproduction rate, and the mean life expectancy; and measures of demographic heterogeneity—population entropy. It is shown that the entropy functions predict the response of the growth rate parameters to perturbations in the age-specific fecundity and mortality schedule. These results are invoked to introduce...

Population Growth and Poverty in the Developing World.

Science.gov (United States)

Birdsall, Nancy

1980-01-01

The link between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty which currently afflicts 780 million people in developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) is examined. As a result of rapid population growth, many countries suffer slow per capita income growth, a lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and…

Urban growth trends in midsize Chilean cities: the case of Temuco

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carla Marchant Santiago

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Academic production about the main Chilean cities exceeds the existing documentation on intermediate cities, though they have shown interesting trends patterns in recent years which have changed the urban system in Chile. This paper aims to analyze the urban growth processes in Chilean intermediate cities using Temuco as a case study. It begins with an historical look at the city and then mentions that in the last decades this kind of cities have undergone new forms of segregation associated to real estate activities such as private communities, rural residential properties and new localization of services which have resulted in a fragmentation of urban space, a phenomenon reinforced by the consolidation of some satellite cities. At the same time, many urban problems associated to poverty, like a standstill of the regional economy and environmental pollution have appeared, jeopardizing the sustainability of these spaces, questioning current development parameters. The article ends considering the future challenges in Temuco’s urban development.

Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

2017-11-14

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

The Effectiveness of Planning Control on Urban Growth: Evidence from Hangzhou, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yizhou Wu

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Urban sprawl presents a serious challenge for sustainable urban land use. Urban planning attempts to guarantee sustainable urban development and proper use of land resources. However, a large gap usually exists between planning and actual development. This paper aims to analyze the evolutionary characteristics of urban form and the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban planning from 1964 to 2013, using the case of Hangzhou, China. We proposed a framework that included remote sensing, landscape metrics, and control effectiveness indexes. The results indicated that urban planning failed to perform effectively in Hangzhou, reflected by the uncontrolled urban sprawl during all the planning periods. The low effectiveness of planning was resulted from multiple factors, including historical economic events that made expansion unexpected, functional orientation of planning which drove fragmented suburbanization, the ineffective methods for forecasting population and land use, and the influences by the market forces. The findings deepen the understanding of the impacts of urban planning, and provide references for making rational urban management decisions and sustainable urban land management.

Impacts of Urbanization on Flood and Soil Erosion Hazards in Istanbul, Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Ozacar, Biricik Gozde

2013-01-01

Due to the inappropriate planning and explosive population growth in urban areas, especially in developing countries, sustainable and disaster-safe urbanization has become the most important challenge for governments. Urbanization presents benefits in different ways but has led simultaneously to changes in land use/land cover (LULC), impacting…

Curbing population growth in Republic of Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Woo-hyun, S

1983-01-26

The population of Korea is expected to increase by another 1/4 of the current population by the year 2000 if the government family planning program is successful. Aggravating Korea's demographic situation is the worldwide phenomenon of urban congestion. According to official statistics, Seoul's population increased from only 1 million in 1953 to 8.5 million in 1980, the latest year for which figures are available. While Seoul's population alone accounts for 22.3% of the total population, that of the greater Seoul area comprises 13,542,000 people or 35.5% of Korea's population. Most of the country's best institutions of higher learning are concentrated in Seoul, and in 1979 Seoul accounted for nearly half (47.7%) of the nation's college and graduate students. Seoul is also the center of the country's political, economic and cultural life and provides better employment opportunities than elsewhere in the country. The exodus of young people from rural areas and the growing census figures have triggered fears that the subsequently reduced agricultural productivity would result in a food supply crisis. In an attempt to remedy the demographic disparity between urban and rural areas, the government initiated a 10-year program in 1982 to promote jobs and improve medicare and the educational system in provincial cities. The plan encourages the establishment of factories and other auxiliary facilities outside the Seoul area that are necessary to support the 1988 Seoul Olympics. The program's success remains in question as it requires consistent, determined, and well coordinated efforts on the part of policy makers to curb the historical trend which has been gaining momentum over the past 100 years. 2 approaches have been adopted in the government's efforts to integrate population dynamics into the development process, overseas migration, and planned parenthood. Despite the 1981 liberalization of overseas travel for Koreans, Korean migration overseas is not expected to grow

Municipal property acquisition patterns in a shrinking city: Evidence for the persistence of an urban growth paradigm in Buffalo, NY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Mark Silverman

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to examine municipal property acquisition patterns in shrinking cities. We use data from the City of Buffalo’s municipal property auction records to analyze the spatial distribution of properties offered for sale in its annual tax foreclosure auction. In addition to these data, we examine demolition and building permit records. Our analysis suggests that cities like Buffalo follow strategies based on an urban growth paradigm when responding to abandonment. This paradigm operates under the assumption that growth is a constant and urban development is only limited by fiscal constraints, underdeveloped systems of urban governance, environmental degradation, and resistance by anti-growth coalitions. We recommend that planners in shrinking cities de-emphasize growth-based planning and focus on rightsizing strategies. These strategies are based on the assumption that growth is not a constant. Consequently, urban revitalization is concentrated in a smaller urban footprint.

Urban Community, poverty and corruption: the case of Annaba, Algeria