WorldWideScience

Sample records for urban population estimates

  1. Estimating changes in urban land and urban population using refined areal interpolation techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoraghein, Hamidreza; Leyk, Stefan

    2018-05-01

    The analysis of changes in urban land and population is important because the majority of future population growth will take place in urban areas. U.S. Census historically classifies urban land using population density and various land-use criteria. This study analyzes the reliability of census-defined urban lands for delineating the spatial distribution of urban population and estimating its changes over time. To overcome the problem of incompatible enumeration units between censuses, regular areal interpolation methods including Areal Weighting (AW) and Target Density Weighting (TDW), with and without spatial refinement, are implemented. The goal in this study is to estimate urban population in Massachusetts in 1990 and 2000 (source zones), within tract boundaries of the 2010 census (target zones), respectively, to create a consistent time series of comparable urban population estimates from 1990 to 2010. Spatial refinement is done using ancillary variables such as census-defined urban areas, the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) as well as different combinations of them. The study results suggest that census-defined urban areas alone are not necessarily the most meaningful delineation of urban land. Instead, it appears that alternative combinations of the above-mentioned ancillary variables can better depict the spatial distribution of urban land, and thus make it possible to reduce the estimation error in transferring the urban population from source zones to target zones when running spatially-refined temporal areal interpolation.

  2. Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Population and Land Area Estimates, Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Population and Land Area Estimates, Version 2 data set consists of country-level estimates of urban population,...

  3. Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Population Estimates, Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), Alpha Version

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Estimates consists of country-level estimates of urban, rural and total population and land area country-wide and...

  4. Fine-Scale Population Estimation by 3D Reconstruction of Urban Residential Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shixin; Tian, Ye; Zhou, Yi; Liu, Wenliang; Lin, Chenxi

    2016-01-01

    Fine-scale population estimation is essential in emergency response and epidemiological applications as well as urban planning and management. However, representing populations in heterogeneous urban regions with a finer resolution is a challenge. This study aims to obtain fine-scale population distribution based on 3D reconstruction of urban residential buildings with morphological operations using optical high-resolution (HR) images from the Chinese No. 3 Resources Satellite (ZY-3). Specifically, the research area was first divided into three categories when dasymetric mapping was taken into consideration. The results demonstrate that the morphological building index (MBI) yielded better results than built-up presence index (PanTex) in building detection, and the morphological shadow index (MSI) outperformed color invariant indices (CIIT) in shadow extraction and height retrieval. Building extraction and height retrieval were then combined to reconstruct 3D models and to estimate population. Final results show that this approach is effective in fine-scale population estimation, with a mean relative error of 16.46% and an overall Relative Total Absolute Error (RATE) of 0.158. This study gives significant insights into fine-scale population estimation in complicated urban landscapes, when detailed 3D information of buildings is unavailable. PMID:27775670

  5. Fine-Scale Population Estimation by 3D Reconstruction of Urban Residential Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shixin Wang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Fine-scale population estimation is essential in emergency response and epidemiological applications as well as urban planning and management. However, representing populations in heterogeneous urban regions with a finer resolution is a challenge. This study aims to obtain fine-scale population distribution based on 3D reconstruction of urban residential buildings with morphological operations using optical high-resolution (HR images from the Chinese No. 3 Resources Satellite (ZY-3. Specifically, the research area was first divided into three categories when dasymetric mapping was taken into consideration. The results demonstrate that the morphological building index (MBI yielded better results than built-up presence index (PanTex in building detection, and the morphological shadow index (MSI outperformed color invariant indices (CIIT in shadow extraction and height retrieval. Building extraction and height retrieval were then combined to reconstruct 3D models and to estimate population. Final results show that this approach is effective in fine-scale population estimation, with a mean relative error of 16.46% and an overall Relative Total Absolute Error (RATE of 0.158. This study gives significant insights into fine-scale population estimation in complicated urban landscapes, when detailed 3D information of buildings is unavailable.

  6. Urban birds in the Sonoran Desert: estimating population density from point counts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina Johnston López

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We conducted bird surveys in Hermosillo, Sonora using distance sampling to characterize detection functions at point-transects for native and non-native urban birds in a desert environment. From March to August 2013 we sampled 240 plots in the city and its surroundings; each plot was visited three times. Our purpose was to provide information for a rapid assessment of bird density in this region by using point counts. We identified 72 species, including six non-native species. Sixteen species had sufficient detections to accurately estimate the parameters of the detection functions. To illustrate the estimation of density from bird count data using our inferred detection functions, we estimated the density of the Eurasian Collared-Dove (Streptopelia decaocto under two different levels of urbanization: highly urbanized (90-100% of urban impact and moderately urbanized zones (39-50% of urban impact. Density of S. decaocto in the highly-urbanized and moderately-urbanized zones was 3.97±0.52 and 2.92±0.52 individuals/ha, respectively. By using our detection functions, avian ecologists can efficiently relocate time and effort that is regularly used for the estimation of detection distances, to increase the number of sites surveyed and to collect other relevant ecological information.

  7. Population, migration and urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-06-01

    Despite recent estimates that natural increase is becoming a more important component of urban growth than rural urban transfer (excess of inmigrants over outmigrants), the share of migration in the total population growth has been consistently increasing in both developed and developing countries. From a demographic perspective, the migration process involves 3 elements: an area of origin which the mover leaves and where he or she is considered an outmigrant; the destination or place of inmigration; and the period over which migration is measured. The 2 basic types of migration are internal and international. Internal migration consists of rural to urban migration, urban to urban migration, rural to rural migration, and urban to rural migration. Among these 4 types of migration various patterns or processes are followed. Migration may be direct when the migrant moves directly from the village to the city and stays there permanently. It can be circular migration, meaning that the migrant moves to the city when it is not planting season and returns to the village when he is needed on the farm. In stage migration the migrant makes a series of moves, each to a city closer to the largest or fastest growing city. Temporary migration may be 1 time or cyclical. The most dominant pattern of internal migration is rural urban. The contribution of migration to urbanization is evident. For example, the rapid urbanization and increase in urban growth from 1960-70 in the Republic of Korea can be attributed to net migration. In Asia the largest component of the population movement consists of individuals and groups moving from 1 rural location to another. Recently, because urban centers could no longer absorb the growing number of migrants from other places, there has been increased interest in the urban to rural population redistribution. This reverse migration also has come about due to slower rates of employment growth in the urban centers and improved economic opportunities

  8. Terrestrial gamma tracking: estimation of population exposition to radioactivity in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza, Elder Magalhães de

    2017-01-01

    In this work, measurements of Ambient Dose Equivalent, H⁎(10) in urban and rural areas is proposed to assess and estimate the dose and external dose in cases of radiological or nuclear accidents. These measurements will enable the calculation and estimation of population exposure to environmental and urban radioactivity to be performed within the parameters proposed by the IAEA and UNSCEAR. To take into account the influence of background gamma radiation on radiometric measurements, all the detectors used, AT6101C, SPARCS A1 and SPARCS M1 systems, were calibrated using IRD's extensive set of planar sources. Also, a methodology for the gamma radiation terrestrial survey is proposed to use the gamma in situ spectrometry systems in H⁎(10) measurements. Shielding effects due to the use of detection systems inside vehicles were evaluated and the corresponding corrections factors calculated are 1.45 for the AT6101C detector, 1.77 for SPARCS A1 and 1.82 for SPARCS M1. The terrestrial survey to determine the value of Ambient Dose Equivalent was performed in areas not subject to intense radioactive anomalies. Among these areas are included the cities: Angra dos Reis and Paraty (State of Rio de Janeiro), Abadia de Goiás, Goiânia, Cristalina and Itumbiara (State of Goiás), Ribeirão Preto and Campinas (State of São Paulo), Brasília-DF (Federal District), Belo Horizonte, Ubá and cities of Zona da Mata (State of Minas Gerais) and Manaus (State of Amazonas). The average altitude of the cities ranged from the sea level in the cities of Angra dos Reis and Paraty to 1100 meters in Brasilia. The number of inhabitants ranged from 3,000 in Divinésia to 3 million in Brasília-DF. The mean values of H⁎(10) ranged from 63 nSv/h in Itumbiara to 170 nSv/h in Ubá. The minimum and maximum values found ranged from 25 nSv/h in Manaus to 347 nSv/h in Belo Horizonte. The average altitude of the cities ranged from the sea level in the cities of Angra dos Reis and Paraty to 1100

  9. Estimated lead (Pb) exposures for a population of urban community gardeners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spliethoff, Henry M; Mitchell, Rebecca G; Shayler, Hannah; Marquez-Bravo, Lydia G; Russell-Anelli, Jonathan; Ferenz, Gretchen; McBride, Murray

    2016-08-01

    Urban community gardens provide affordable, locally grown, healthy foods and many other benefits. However, urban garden soils can contain lead (Pb) that may pose risks to human health. To help evaluate these risks, we measured Pb concentrations in soil, vegetables, and chicken eggs from New York City community gardens, and we asked gardeners about vegetable consumption and time spent in the garden. We then estimated Pb intakes deterministically and probabilistically for adult gardeners, children who spend time in the garden, and adult (non-gardener) household members. Most central tendency Pb intakes were below provisional total tolerable intake (PTTI) levels. High contact intakes generally exceeded PTTIs. Probabilistic estimates showed approximately 40 % of children and 10 % of gardeners exceeding PTTIs. Children's exposure came primarily from dust ingestion and exposure to higher Pb soil between beds. Gardeners' Pb intakes were comparable to children's (in µg/day) but were dominated by vegetable consumption. Adult household members ate less garden-grown produce than gardeners and had the lowest Pb intakes. Our results suggest that healthy gardening practices to reduce Pb exposure in urban community gardens should focus on encouraging cultivation of lower Pb vegetables (i.e., fruits) for adult gardeners and on covering higher Pb non-bed soils accessible to young children. However, the common practice of replacement of root-zone bed soil with clean soil (e.g., in raised beds) has many benefits and should also continue to be encouraged.

  10. Monitoring dolphins in an urban marine system: total and effective population size estimates of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ina C Ansmann

    Full Text Available Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus. These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008-2010. Abundance (N was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Ne c. A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554 ± 22.2 (SE (95% CI: 510-598 was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193 ± 6.4 (SE (95% CI: 181-207, while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446 ± 56 (SE (95% CI: 336-556 individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Ne c = 56, 95% CI: 33-128 raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5% declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect

  11. Bridged Race Population Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Population estimates from "bridging" the 31 race categories used in Census 2000, as specified in the 1997 Office of Management and Budget (OMB) race and ethnicity...

  12. Thermodynamics of urban population flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernando, A; Plastino, A

    2012-12-01

    Orderliness, reflected via mathematical laws, is encountered in different frameworks involving social groups. Here we show that a thermodynamics can be constructed that macroscopically describes urban population flows. Microscopic dynamic equations and simulations with random walkers underlie the macroscopic approach. Our results might be regarded, via suitable analogies, as a step towards building an explicit social thermodynamics.

  13. Capital, population and urban patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, W

    1994-04-01

    The author develops an approach to urban dynamics with endogenous capital and population growth, synthesizing the Alonso location model, the two-sector neoclassical growth model, and endogenous population theory. A dynamic model for an isolated island economy with endogenous capital, population, and residential structure is developed on the basis of Alonso's residential model and the two-sector neoclassical growth model. The model describes the interdependence between residential structure, economic growth, population growth, and economic structure over time and space. It has a unique long-run equilibrium, which may be either stable or unstable, depending upon the population dynamics. Applying the Hopf theorem, the author also shows that when the system is unstable, the economic geography exhibits permanent endogenous oscillations.

  14. Urban Ecology: Patterns of Population Growth and Ecological Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne C. Zipperer; Steward T.A. Pickett

    2012-01-01

    Currently, over 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, this estimate is expected to be 70%. This urban growth, however, is not uniformly distributed around the world. The majority of it will occur in developing nations and create megacities whose populations exceed at least 10 million people. Not all urban areas, however, are growing. Some are...

  15. Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

    2018-06-01

    Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons

  16. Consolidating Data of Global Urban Populations: a Comparative Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankespoor, B.; Khan, A.; Selod, H.

    2017-12-01

    Global data on city populations are essential for the study of urbanization, city growth and the spatial distribution of human settlements. Such data are either gathered by combining official estimates of urban populations from across countries or extracted from gridded population models that combine these estimates with geospatial data. These data sources provide varying estimates of urban populations and each approach has its advantages and limitations. In particular, official figures suffer from a lack of consistency in defining urban units (across both space and time) and often provide data for jurisdictions rather than the functionally meaningful urban area. On the other hand, gridded population models require a user-imposed definition to identify urban areas and are constrained by the modelling techniques and input data employed. To address these drawbacks, we combine these approaches by consolidating information from three established sources: (i) the Citypopulation.de (Brinkhoff, 2016); (ii) the World Urban Prospects data (United Nations, 2014); and (iii) the Global Human Settlements population grid (GHS-POP) (EC - JRC, 2015). We create urban footprints with GHS-POP and spatially merge georeferenced city points from both UN WUP and Citypopulation.de with these urban footprints to identify city points that belong to a single agglomeration. We create a consolidated dataset by combining population data from the UN WUP and Citypopulation.de. The flexible framework outlined can incorporate information from alternative inputs to identify urban clusters e.g. by using night-time lights, built-up area or alternative gridded population models (e.g WorldPop or Landscan) and the parameters employed (e.g. density thresholds for urban footprints) may also be adjusted, e.g., as a function of city-specific characteristics. Our consolidated dataset provides a wider and more accurate coverage of city populations to support studies of urbanization. We apply the data to re

  17. Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

    2017-01-01

    Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

  18. The impact of urbanization and population density on childhood Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence rates in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaria, Caroline W; Gilbert, Marius; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Linard, Catherine

    2017-01-26

    Although malaria has been traditionally regarded as less of a problem in urban areas compared to neighbouring rural areas, the risk of malaria infection continues to exist in densely populated, urban areas of Africa. Despite the recognition that urbanization influences the epidemiology of malaria, there is little consensus on urbanization relevant for malaria parasite mapping. Previous studies examining the relationship between urbanization and malaria transmission have used products defining urbanization at global/continental scales developed in the early 2000s, that overestimate actual urban extents while the population estimates are over 15 years old and estimated at administrative unit level. This study sought to discriminate an urbanization definition that is most relevant for malaria parasite mapping using individual level malaria infection data obtained from nationally representative household-based surveys. Boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to determine the effect of urbanization on malaria transmission and if this effect varied with urbanization definition. In addition, the most recent high resolution population distribution data was used to determine whether population density had significant effect on malaria parasite prevalence and if so, could population density replace urban classifications in modelling malaria transmission patterns. The risk of malaria infection was shown to decline from rural areas through peri-urban settlements to urban central areas. Population density was found to be an important predictor of malaria risk. The final boosted regression trees (BRT) model with urbanization and population density gave the best model fit (Tukey test p value <0.05) compared to the models with urbanization only. Given the challenges in uniformly classifying urban areas across different countries, population density provides a reliable metric to adjust for the patterns of malaria risk in densely populated urban areas. Future malaria risk

  19. Econometric studies of urban population density: a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcdonald, J F

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents the 1st reasonably comprehensive survey of empirical research of urban population densities since the publication of the book by Edmonston in 1975. The survey summarizes contributions to empirical knowledge that have been made since 1975 and points toward possible areas for additional research. The paper also provides a brief interpretative intellectual history of the topic. It begins with a personal overview of research in the field. The next section discusses econometric issues that arise in the estimation of population density functions in which density is a function only of a distance to the central business district of the urban area. Section 4 summarizes the studies of a single urban area that went beyond the estimation of simple distance-density functions, and Section 5 discusses studies that sought to explain the variations across urban areas in population density patterns. McDonald refers to the standard theory of urban population density throughout the paper. This basic model is presented in the textbook by Mills and Hamilton and it is assumed that the reader is familiar with the model.

  20. Surface moisture estimation in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yitong

    Surface moisture is an important parameter because it modifies urban microclimate and surface layer meteorology. The primary objectives of this paper are: 1) to analyze the impact of surface roughness from buildings on surface moisture in urban areas; and 2) to quantify the impact of surface roughness resulting from urban trees on surface moisture. To achieve the objectives, two hypotheses were tested: 1) the distribution of surface moisture is associated with the structural complexity of buildings in urban areas; and 2) The distribution and change of surface moisture is associated with the distribution and vigor of urban trees. The study area is Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. In the part of the morphology of urban trees, Warren Township was selected due to the limitation of tree inventory data. To test the hypotheses, the research design was made to extract the aerodynamic parameters, such as frontal areas, roughness length and displacement height of buildings and trees from Terrestrial and Airborne LiDAR data, then to input the aerodynamic parameters into the urban surface energy balance model. The methodology was developed for comparing the impact of aerodynamic parameters from LiDAR data with the parameters that were derived empirically from land use and land cover data. The analytical procedures are discussed below: 1) to capture the spatial and temporal variation of surface moisture, daily and hourly Land Surface Temperature (LST) were downscaled from 4 km to 1 km, and 960 m to 30 m, respectively, by regression between LST and various components that impact LST; 2) to estimate surface moisture, namely soil moisture and evapotranspiration (ET), land surfaces were classified into soil, vegetation, and impervious surfaces, using Linear Spectral Mixture Analysis (LSMA); 3) aerodynamic parameters of buildings and trees were extracted from Airborne and Terrestrial LiDAR data; 4) the Temperature-Vegetation-Index (TVX) method, and the Two-Source-Energy-Balance (TSEB

  1. Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2016-01-01

    High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

  2. [Estimation of Shenyang urban forest green biomass].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chang-fu; He, Xing-yuan; Chen, Wei; Zhao, Gui-ling; Xu, Wen-duo

    2007-06-01

    Based on ARC/GIS and by using the method of "planar biomass estimation", the green biomass (GB) of Shenyang urban forests was measured. The results demonstrated that the GB per unit area was the highest (3.86 m2.m(-2)) in landscape and relaxation forest, and the lowest (2.27 m2.m(-2)) in ecological and public welfare forest. The GB per unit area in urban forest distribution area was 2.99 m2.m(-2), and that of the whole Shenyang urban area was 0.25 m2.m(-2). The total GB of Shenyang urban forests was about 1.13 x 10(8) m2, among which, subordinated forest, ecological and public welfare forest, landscape and relaxation forest, road forest, and production and management forest accounted for 36.64% , 23.99% , 19.38% , 16.20% and 3.79%, with their GB being 4. 15 x 10(7), 2.72 x 10(7), 2.20 x 10(7), 1.84 x 10(7) and 0.43 x 10(7) m2, respectively. The precision of the method "planar biomass estimation" was 91.81% (alpha = 0.05) by credit test.

  3. Travel Time Estimation on Urban Street Segment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Kajalić

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Level of service (LOS is used as the main indicator of transport quality on urban roads and it is estimated based on the travel speed. The main objective of this study is to determine which of the existing models for travel speed calculation is most suitable for local conditions. The study uses actual data gathered in travel time survey on urban streets, recorded by applying second by second GPS data. The survey is limited to traffic flow in saturated conditions. The RMSE method (Root Mean Square Error is used for research results comparison with relevant models: Akcelik, HCM (Highway Capacity Manual, Singapore model and modified BPR (the Bureau of Public Roads function (Dowling - Skabardonis. The lowest deviation in local conditions for urban streets with standardized intersection distance (400-500 m is demonstrated by Akcelik model. However, for streets with lower signal density (<1 signal/km the correlation between speed and degree of saturation is best presented by HCM and Singapore model. According to test results, Akcelik model was adopted for travel speed estimation which can be the basis for determining the level of service in urban streets with standardized intersection distance and coordinated signal timing under local conditions.

  4. Estimating spatial inequalities of urban child mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R. Weeks

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Recent studies indicate that the traditional rural-urban dichotomy pointing to cities as places of better health in the developing world can be complicated by poverty differentials. Knowledge of spatial patterns is essential to understanding the processes that link individual demographic outcomes to characteristics of a place. A significant limitation, however, is the lack of spatial data and methods that offer flexibility in data inputs. OBJECTIVE This paper tackles some of the issues in calculating intra-urban child mortality by combining multiple data sets in Accra, Ghana and applying a new method developed by Rajaratnam et al. (2010 that efficiently uses summary birth histories for creating local-level measures of under-five child mortality (5q0. Intra-urban 5q0 rates are then compared with characteristics of the environment that may be linked to child mortality. METHODS Rates of child mortality are calculated for 16 urban zones within Accra for birth cohorts from 1987 to 2006. Estimates are compared to calculated 5q0 rates from full birth histories. 5q0 estimates are then related to zone measures of slum characteristics, housing quality, health facilities, and vegetation using a simple trendline R2 analysis. RESULTS Results suggest the potential value of the Rajaratnam et al. method at the micro-spatial scale. Estimated rates indicate that there is variability in child mortality between zones, with a spread of up to 50 deaths per 1,000 births. Furthermore, there is evidence that child mortality is connected to environmental factors such as housing quality, slum-like conditions, and neighborhood levels of vegetation.

  5. Population development in Ljubljana urban region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejan Rebernik

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the main characteristic of population development and urbanisation processes in Ljubljana and Ljubljana urban region. Up to the end of the seventies fast population growth was a consequence of strong immigration from rural parts of Slovenia and the rest of Yugoslavia. In the eighties and nineties deconcentration of population within the region with intense suburbanisation and depopulation of inner city and older residential neighbourhoods were the main urbanisation processes. In the second half of the nineties the highest population growth was recorded in dispersed rural settlements in the periphery of the region. In some parts of the inner city reurbanisation and gentrification occurred.

  6. Shrinking population and the urban hierarchy

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Ho Yeon

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines whether population shrinkage leads to changes in the urban hierarchy in terms of relative sizes of cities and their functions onomic geography. We work backwards in a racetrack economy with eight cities in a long-run equilibrium. Initial distribution of population is chosen to satisfy both the rank-size rule and central place hierarchy. We have a short-run equilibrium in which firms choose prices and consumers choose consumption taking the number of workers in each region ...

  7. Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire

    2015-04-01

    Urban areas often lack rainfall information. To increase the number of rainfall observations in cities, microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed. Although this new potential source of rainfall information has been shown to be promising, its quality needs to be demonstrated more extensively. In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Part of this project is rainfall estimation using new measurement techniques. Innovative sensing techniques will be utilized such as rainfall estimation from microwave links, umbrellas for weather sensing, low-cost sensors at lamp posts and in drainage pipes for water level observation. These will be combined with information provided by citizens in an active way through smartphone apps and in a passive way through social media posts (Twitter, Flickr etc.). Sensor information will be integrated, visualized and made accessible to citizens to help raise citizen awareness of urban water management challenges and promote resilience by providing information on how citizens can contribute in addressing these. Moreover, citizens and businesses can benefit from reliable weather information in planning their social and commercial activities. In the end city-wide high-resolution rainfall maps will be derived, blending rainfall information from microwave links and weather radars. This information will be used for urban water management. This presentation focuses on rainfall estimation from commercial microwave links. Received signal levels from tens of microwave links within the Amsterdam region (roughly 1 million inhabitants) in the Netherlands are utilized to estimate rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolution. Rainfall maps will be presented and compared to a gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data set. Rainfall time series from gauge(s), radars and links will be compared.

  8. The effects of ageing and urbanisation on China's future rural and urban populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart

    2017-01-01

    This paper estimates China's future population and labour force by developing a novel forecasting model for population. It combines information about age-specific parameters on fertility and mortality for both rural and urban areas using information about rural-urban migration and the transformation

  9. A Global Geospatial Ecosystem Services Estimate of Urban Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, Nicholas; Stuhlmacher, Michelle; Miles, Albie; Uludere Aragon, Nazli; Wagner, Melissa; Georgescu, Matei; Herwig, Chris; Gong, Peng

    2018-01-01

    Though urban agriculture (UA), defined here as growing of crops in cities, is increasing in popularity and importance globally, little is known about the aggregate benefits of such natural capital in built-up areas. Here, we introduce a quantitative framework to assess global aggregate ecosystem services from existing vegetation in cities and an intensive UA adoption scenario based on data-driven estimates of urban morphology and vacant land. We analyzed global population, urban, meteorological, terrain, and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) datasets in Google Earth Engine to derive global scale estimates, aggregated by country, of services provided by UA. We estimate the value of four ecosystem services provided by existing vegetation in urban areas to be on the order of 33 billion annually. We project potential annual food production of 100-180 million tonnes, energy savings ranging from 14 to 15 billion kilowatt hours, nitrogen sequestration between 100,000 and 170,000 tonnes, and avoided storm water runoff between 45 and 57 billion cubic meters annually. In addition, we estimate that food production, nitrogen fixation, energy savings, pollination, climate regulation, soil formation and biological control of pests could be worth as much as 80-160 billion annually in a scenario of intense UA implementation. Our results demonstrate significant country-to-country variability in UA-derived ecosystem services and reduction of food insecurity. These estimates represent the first effort to consistently quantify these incentives globally, and highlight the relative spatial importance of built environments to act as change agents that alleviate mounting concerns associated with global environmental change and unsustainable development.

  10. Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population density grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's...

  11. Estimated population near uranium tailings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bloomster, C.H.; Brown, D.R.; Bruno, G.A.; Craig, S.N.; Dirks, J.A.; Griffin, E.A.; Reis, J.W.; Young, J.K.

    1984-01-01

    Population studies, which took place during the months of April, May, and June 1983, were performed for 27 active and 25 inactive mill sites. For each mill site, a table showing population by radius (1/2, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 km) in 16 compass directions was generated. 22 references, 6 tables

  12. Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Prevalence and Estimated 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores in a Large Untreated French Urban Population: The CARVAR 92 Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carma Karam

    Full Text Available Surveys measuring effectiveness of public awareness campaigns in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD incidence have yielded equivocal findings. The aim of this study was to describe cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs changes over the years in an untreated population-based study.Between 2007 and 2012, we conducted a screening campaign for CVRFs in men aged 40 to 65 yrs and women aged 50 to 70 yrs in the western suburbs of Paris. Data were complete for 20,324 participants of which 14,709 were untreated.The prevalence trend over six years was statistically significant for hypertension in men from 25.9% in 2007 to 21.1% in 2012 (p=0.002 and from 23% in 2007 to 12.7% in 2012 in women (p<0.0001. The prevalence trend of tobacco smoking decreased from 38.6% to 27.7% in men (p=0.0001 and from 22.6% to 16.8% in women (p=0.113. The Framingham 10-year risk for CVD decreased from 13.3 ± 8.2 % in 2007 to 11.7 ± 9.0 % in 2012 in men and from 8.0 ± 4.1 % to 5.9 ± 3.4 % in women. The 10-year risk of fatal CVD based on the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE decreased in men and in women (p <0.0001.Over a 6-year period, several CVRFs have decreased in our screening campaign, leading to decrease in the 10-year risk for CVD and the 10-year risk of fatal CVD. Cardiologists should recognize the importance of community prevention programs and communication policies, particularly tobacco control and healthier diets to decrease the CVRFs in the general population.

  13. Estimativa de populações canina e felina domiciliadas em zona urbana do Estado de São Paulo Estimate of the owned canine and feline populations in urban area in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Augusto Dias

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Dada a importância do conhecimento acerca da população de cães e gatos domiciliados para o adequado planejamento e avaliação das ações de controle da raiva em áreas urbanas, propõe-se a utilização de um valor preciso de estimativa dessas populações com base em indicadores populacionais humanos. MÉTODOS: Foi calculada a razão entre as populações humana e animal (canina e felina por meio de inspeções domiciliares, no Município de Taboão da Serra, SP. O município foi dividido em duas áreas homogêneas distintas socioeconomicamente, de acordo com o algoritmo da média k, de modo a permitir a comparação das razões homem:animal (cão e gato das áreas homogêneas. RESULTADOS: A razão entre a população humana e a população canina foi 5,14 e a entre a humana e a felina foi 30,57. Não foi observada diferença significativa ao comparar-se as razões entre as populações humana e animal das áreas homogêneas. CONCLUSÕES: A adoção de uma metodologia de estimativa populacional canina e felina domiciliada, baseada em indicadores populacionais humanos, é a mais indicada e facilmente exeqüível quando comparada ao censo canino.OBJECTIVE: Given the importance of assessing owned dog and cat populations to adequate planning and evaluation of rabies control measures in urban areas, it is proposed the use of an estimate of these populations based on human population parameters. METHODS: The ratio between human population and owned animal (dogs and cats population was calculated in the municipality of Taboão da Serra, state of São Paulo, Brazil. This municipality was divided into two distinct social and economic homogeneous areas through k-mean algorithm, allowing for comparison between the ratios of the two homogeneous areas. RESULTS: A 5.14 ratio was calculated for human and dog populations and a 30.57ratio for human and feline populations. A significant difference was not observed when comparing the ratios for

  14. Social Profile Of The Aged In An Urban Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J A Khan

    1997-08-01

    Full Text Available Research Problem: What is the socio-demographic profile of urban aged population in Aligarh city.Objectives: i To describe the socio-demographic profile of the aged population in an urban area, ii To describe the attitude of these people.Design:Cross-sectional study.Setting : Urban areas of Aligarh city.Participants : 3951 persons aged 60 years and aboveStudy Variables: Socio-demographic characteristics, attitudes.Statistical Analysis : By proportions.Result: 15% of the total estimated elderly population covering all 10 sectors of Aligarh city was studied. The majority ofthe elderly (72.4% belonged to 60-70 years age group. Most of them (77.2% were illiterate, 61.6% belonged to lower socio-economic classes (IV & V, 78.1 % lived in joint families. 39.6% of the aged felt that they were not being given due respect by family members. Nearly half of them had an indifferent or unhappy attitude towards life.Conclusion: The socio-demographic characteristics of the aged are important and must be kept in mind for developing programs to assist them in living as respectful senior citizens.

  15. Density Estimation in Several Populations With Uncertain Population Membership

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan

    2011-09-01

    We devise methods to estimate probability density functions of several populations using observations with uncertain population membership, meaning from which population an observation comes is unknown. The probability of an observation being sampled from any given population can be calculated. We develop general estimation procedures and bandwidth selection methods for our setting. We establish large-sample properties and study finite-sample performance using simulation studies. We illustrate our methods with data from a nutrition study.

  16. Hypertension in a Brazilian urban slum population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, Alon; Felzemburgh, Ridalva D M; Snyder, Robert E; Ribeiro, Guilherme S; Mohr, Sharif; Costa, Vinícius B A; Melendez, Astrid X T O; Reis, Renato B; Santana, Francisco S; Riley, Lee W; Reis, Mitermayer G; Ko, Albert I

    2015-06-01

    Low- and middle-income countries account for the majority of hypertension disease burden. However, little is known about the distribution of this illness within subpopulations of these countries, particularly among those who live in urban informal settlements. A cross-sectional hypertension survey was conducted in 2003 among 5649 adult residents of a slum settlement in the city of Salvador, Brazil. Hypertension was defined as either an elevated arterial systolic (≥140 mmHg) or diastolic (≥90 mmHg) blood pressure. Sex-specific multivariable models of systolic blood pressure were constructed to identify factors associated with elevated blood pressure. The prevalence of hypertension in the population 18 years and older was 21% (1162/5649). Men had 1.2 times the risk of hypertension compared with women (95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.05, 1.36). Increasing age and lack of any schooling, particularly for women, were also significantly associated with elevated blood pressure (p slum community was lower than reported frequencies in the non-slum population of Brazil and Salvador, yet both disease awareness and treatment frequency were low. Further research on hypertension and other chronic non-communicable diseases in slum populations is urgently needed to guide prevention and treatment efforts in this growing population.

  17. Introduction: population migration and urbanization in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kojima, R

    1996-12-01

    This introductory article discusses the correlation between migration and rapid urbanization and growth in the largest cities of the developing world. The topics include the characteristics of urbanization, government policies toward population migration, the change in absolute size of the rural population, and the problems of maintaining megacities. Other articles in this special issue are devoted to urbanization patterns in China, South Africa, Iran, Korea and Taiwan as newly industrialized economies (NIEs), informal sectors in the Philippines and Thailand, and low-income settlements in Bogota, Colombia, and India. It is argued that increased urbanization is produced by natural population growth, the expansion of the urban administrative area, and the in-migration from rural areas. A comparison of urbanization rates of countries by per capita gross national product (GNP) reveals that countries with per capita GNP of under US$2000 have urbanization rates of 10-60%. Rates are under 30% in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, China, and Indonesia. Rapid urbanization appears to follow the economic growth curve. The rate of urbanization in Latin America is high enough to be comparable to urbanization in Europe and the US. Taiwan and Korea have high rates of urbanization that surpass the rate of industrialization. Thailand and Malaysia have low rates of urbanization compared to the size of their per capita GNP. Urbanization rates under 20% occur in countries without economic development. Rates between 20% and 50% occur in countries with or without industrialization. East Asian urbanization is progressing along with industrialization. Africa and the Middle East have urbanization without industrialization. In 1990 there were 20 developing countries and 5 developed countries with populations over 5 million. In 10 of 87 developing countries rural population declined in absolute size. The author identifies and discusses four patterns of urban growth.

  18. Applicability of models to estimate traffic noise for urban roads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melo, Ricardo A; Pimentel, Roberto L; Lacerda, Diego M; Silva, Wekisley M

    2015-01-01

    Traffic noise is a highly relevant environmental impact in cities. Models to estimate traffic noise, in turn, can be useful tools to guide mitigation measures. In this paper, the applicability of models to estimate noise levels produced by a continuous flow of vehicles on urban roads is investigated. The aim is to identify which models are more appropriate to estimate traffic noise in urban areas since several models available were conceived to estimate noise from highway traffic. First, measurements of traffic noise, vehicle count and speed were carried out in five arterial urban roads of a brazilian city. Together with geometric measurements of width of lanes and distance from noise meter to lanes, these data were input in several models to estimate traffic noise. The predicted noise levels were then compared to the respective measured counterparts for each road investigated. In addition, a chart showing mean differences in noise between estimations and measurements is presented, to evaluate the overall performance of the models. Measured Leq values varied from 69 to 79 dB(A) for traffic flows varying from 1618 to 5220 vehicles/h. Mean noise level differences between estimations and measurements for all urban roads investigated ranged from -3.5 to 5.5 dB(A). According to the results, deficiencies of some models are discussed while other models are identified as applicable to noise estimations on urban roads in a condition of continuous flow. Key issues to apply such models to urban roads are highlighted.

  19. Estimation of population mean under systematic sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor-ul-amin, Muhammad; Javaid, Amjad

    2017-11-01

    In this study we propose a generalized ratio estimator under non-response for systematic random sampling. We also generate a class of estimators through special cases of generalized estimator using different combinations of coefficients of correlation, kurtosis and variation. The mean square errors and mathematical conditions are also derived to prove the efficiency of proposed estimators. Numerical illustration is included using three populations to support the results.

  20. Predicting Intra-Urban Population Densities in Africa using SAR and Optical Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linard, C.; Steele, J.; Forget, Y.; Lopez, J.; Shimoni, M.

    2017-12-01

    The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving profound social, environmental and epidemiological changes within rapidly growing cities. Estimations of within-city variations in population density must be improved in order to take urban heterogeneities into account and better help urban research and decision making, especially for vulnerability and health assessments. Satellite remote sensing offers an effective solution for mapping settlements and monitoring urbanization at different spatial and temporal scales. In Africa, the urban landscape is covered by slums and small houses, where the heterogeneity is high and where the man-made materials are natural. Innovative methods that combine optical and SAR data are therefore necessary for improving settlement mapping and population density predictions. An automatic method was developed to estimate built-up densities using recent and archived optical and SAR data and a multi-temporal database of built-up densities was produced for 48 African cities. Geo-statistical methods were then used to study the relationships between census-derived population densities and satellite-derived built-up attributes. Best predictors were combined in a Random Forest framework in order to predict intra-urban variations in population density in any large African city. Models show significant improvement of our spatial understanding of urbanization and urban population distribution in Africa in comparison to the state of the art.

  1. Migration, urban population growth and regional disparity in China

    OpenAIRE

    Renard, Mary-Françoise; Xu, Zelai; Zhu, Nong

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to study the determinants of city population growth in China during the 1990s', as well as the determinants of migrations towards cities, which constitutes the main source of urban population growth in this period. A second objective is to identify regional differences in the urban growth and migrations, that is, whether urban growth and migration patterns are different between coastal and inland provinces. Additionally, we are interested in the differences...

  2. Prevalence of primary glaucoma in an urban South Indian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Aby

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available Glaucoma is fast emerging as a major cause of blindness in India. In order to estimate the prevalence of primary open angle glaucoma (POAG and primary angle closure glaucoma (PACG in an urban South Indian population, we examined 972 individuals aged 30-60 years, chosen using a cluster sampling technique from 12 census blocks of Vellore town. They underwent a complete ocular examination, including applanation tonometry and gonioscopy, at the Medical College Hospital. Characteristic field defects on automated perimetry was a diagnostic requisite for POAG. Prevalence (95% CI of POAG, PACG, and ocular hypertension were 4.1 (0.08-8.1, 43.2 (30.14-56.3, and 30.8 (19.8-41.9 per 1,000, respectively. All the PACG cases detected were of the chronic type. Hitherto unavailable community-based information on primary glaucoma in our study population indicates that PACG is about five times as common as POAG.

  3. Density Estimation in Several Populations With Uncertain Population Membership

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan; Hart, Jeffrey D.; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2011-01-01

    sampled from any given population can be calculated. We develop general estimation procedures and bandwidth selection methods for our setting. We establish large-sample properties and study finite-sample performance using simulation studies. We illustrate

  4. Song convergence in multiple urban populations of silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potvin, Dominique A; Parris, Kirsten M

    2012-08-01

    Recent studies have revealed differences between urban and rural vocalizations of numerous bird species. These differences include frequency shifts, amplitude shifts, altered song speed, and selective meme use. If particular memes sung by urban populations are adapted to the urban soundscape, "urban-typical" calls, memes, or repertoires should be consistently used in multiple urban populations of the same species, regardless of geographic location. We tested whether songs or contact calls of silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis) might be subject to such convergent cultural evolution by comparing syllable repertoires of geographically dispersed urban and rural population pairs throughout southeastern Australia. Despite frequency and tempo differences between urban and rural calls, call repertoires were similar between habitat types. However, certain song syllables were used more frequently by birds from urban than rural populations. Partial redundancy analysis revealed that both geographic location and habitat characteristics were important predictors of syllable repertoire composition. These findings suggest convergent cultural evolution: urban populations modify both song and call syllables from their local repertoire in response to noise.

  5. Estimating salt intake in a Caucasian population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Ulla; Cerqueira, Charlotte; Andreasen, Anne Helms

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A simple and valid alternative for 24-hour urine collection to estimate populational 24-hour urinary sodium excretion would be desirable for monitoring sodium intake in populations. AIM: To assess the validity of the predicted 24-hour urinary sodium excretion using spot urine and two ...

  6. Terrestrial gamma tracking: estimation of population exposition to radioactivity in urban areas; Rastreamento gama terrestre: estimativa da exposição da população à radioatividade em areas urbanas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souza, Elder Magalhães de

    2017-07-01

    In this work, measurements of Ambient Dose Equivalent, H⁎(10) in urban and rural areas is proposed to assess and estimate the dose and external dose in cases of radiological or nuclear accidents. These measurements will enable the calculation and estimation of population exposure to environmental and urban radioactivity to be performed within the parameters proposed by the IAEA and UNSCEAR. To take into account the influence of background gamma radiation on radiometric measurements, all the detectors used, AT6101C, SPARCS A1 and SPARCS M1 systems, were calibrated using IRD's extensive set of planar sources. Also, a methodology for the gamma radiation terrestrial survey is proposed to use the gamma in situ spectrometry systems in H⁎(10) measurements. Shielding effects due to the use of detection systems inside vehicles were evaluated and the corresponding corrections factors calculated are 1.45 for the AT6101C detector, 1.77 for SPARCS A1 and 1.82 for SPARCS M1. The terrestrial survey to determine the value of Ambient Dose Equivalent was performed in areas not subject to intense radioactive anomalies. Among these areas are included the cities: Angra dos Reis and Paraty (State of Rio de Janeiro), Abadia de Goiás, Goiânia, Cristalina and Itumbiara (State of Goiás), Ribeirão Preto and Campinas (State of São Paulo), Brasília-DF (Federal District), Belo Horizonte, Ubá and cities of Zona da Mata (State of Minas Gerais) and Manaus (State of Amazonas). The average altitude of the cities ranged from the sea level in the cities of Angra dos Reis and Paraty to 1100 meters in Brasilia. The number of inhabitants ranged from 3,000 in Divinésia to 3 million in Brasília-DF. The mean values of H⁎(10) ranged from 63 nSv/h in Itumbiara to 170 nSv/h in Ubá. The minimum and maximum values found ranged from 25 nSv/h in Manaus to 347 nSv/h in Belo Horizonte. The average altitude of the cities ranged from the sea level in the cities of Angra dos Reis and Paraty to 1100

  7. Seasonal associations with urban light pollution for nocturnally migrating bird populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel; Buler, Jeffrey J; Farnsworth, Andrew; Cabrera-Cruz, Sergio A

    2017-11-01

    The spatial extent and intensity of artificial light at night (ALAN) has increased worldwide through the growth of urban environments. There is evidence that nocturnally migrating birds are attracted to ALAN, and there is evidence that nocturnally migrating bird populations are more likely to occur in urban areas during migration, especially in the autumn. Here, we test if urban sources of ALAN are responsible, at least in part, for these observed urban associations. We use weekly estimates of diurnal occurrence and relative abundance for 40 nocturnally migrating bird species that breed in forested environments in North America to assess how associations with distance to urban areas and ALAN are defined across the annual cycle. Migratory bird populations presented stronger than expected associations with shorter distances to urban areas during migration, and stronger than expected association with higher levels of ALAN outside and especially within urban areas during migration. These patterns were more pronounced during autumn migration, especially within urban areas. Outside of the two migration periods, migratory bird populations presented stronger than expected associations with longer distances to urban areas, especially during the nonbreeding season, and weaker than expected associations with the highest levels of ALAN outside and especially within urban areas. These findings suggest that ALAN is associated with higher levels of diurnal abundance along the boundaries and within the interior of urban areas during migration, especially in the autumn when juveniles are undertaking their first migration journey. These findings support the conclusion that urban sources of ALAN can broadly effect migratory behavior, emphasizing the need to better understand the implications of ALAN for migratory bird populations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Estimating the burden of disease attributable to urban outdoor air ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PM10 and PM2.5 data from air-quality assessment studies in areas not covered by the network were also included. Population-attributable fractions calculated using risk coefficients presented in the WHO study were weighted by the proportion of the total population (33%) in urban environments, and applied to revised ...

  9. Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vangestel, C; Mergeay, J; Dawson, D A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

    2012-09-01

    House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierarchical way among different urbanization classes. Principal coordinate analyses did not support the hypothesis that urban/suburban and rural populations comprise two distinct genetic clusters. Comparison of FST values at different hierarchical scales revealed drift as an important force of population differentiation. Redundancy analyses revealed that genetic structure was strongly affected by both spatial variation and level of urbanization. The results shown here can be used as baseline information for future genetic monitoring programmes and provide additional insights into contemporary house sparrow dynamics along urbanization gradients.

  10. Estimating the Impact of Urbanization on Air Quality in China Using Spatial Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanglin Fang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Urban air pollution is one of the most visible environmental problems to have accompanied China’s rapid urbanization. Based on emission inventory data from 2014, gathered from 289 cities, we used Global and Local Moran’s I to measure the spatial autorrelation of Air Quality Index (AQI values at the city level, and employed Ordinary Least Squares (OLS, Spatial Lag Model (SAR, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR to quantitatively estimate the comprehensive impact and spatial variations of China’s urbanization process on air quality. The results show that a significant spatial dependence and heterogeneity existed in AQI values. Regression models revealed urbanization has played an important negative role in determining air quality in Chinese cities. The population, urbanization rate, automobile density, and the proportion of secondary industry were all found to have had a significant influence over air quality. Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP and the scale of urban land use, however, failed the significance test at 10% level. The GWR model performed better than global models and the results of GWR modeling show that the relationship between urbanization and air quality was not constant in space. Further, the local parameter estimates suggest significant spatial variation in the impacts of various urbanization factors on air quality.

  11. Estimating the effect of urban density on fuel demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karathodorou, Niovi; Graham, Daniel J. [Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Noland, Robert B. [Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 (United States)

    2010-01-15

    Much of the empirical literature on fuel demand presents estimates derived from national data which do not permit any explicit consideration of the spatial structure of the economy. Intuitively we would expect the degree of spatial concentration of activities to have a strong link with transport fuel consumption. The present paper addresses this theme by estimating a fuel demand model for urban areas to provide a direct estimate of the elasticity of demand with respect to urban density. Fuel demand per capita is decomposed into car stock per capita, fuel consumption per kilometre and annual distance driven per car per year. Urban density is found to affect fuel consumption, mostly through variations in the car stock and in the distances travelled, rather than through fuel consumption per kilometre. (author)

  12. Population estimation techniques for routing analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathisan, S.K.; Chagari, A.K.

    1994-01-01

    A number of on-site and off-site factors affect the potential siting of a radioactive materials repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Transportation related issues such route selection and design are among them. These involve evaluation of potential risks and impacts, including those related to population. Population characteristics (total population and density) are critical factors in the risk assessment, emergency preparedness and response planning, and ultimately in route designation. This paper presents an application of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to facilitate such analyses. Specifically, techniques to estimate critical population information are presented. A case study using the highway network in Nevada is used to illustrate the analyses. TIGER coverages are used as the basis for population information at a block level. The data are then synthesized at tract, county and state levels of aggregation. Of particular interest are population estimates for various corridor widths along transport corridors -- ranging from 0.5 miles to 20 miles in this paper. A sensitivity analysis based on the level of data aggregation is also presented. The results of these analysis indicate that specific characteristics of the area and its population could be used as indicators to aggregate data appropriately for the analysis

  13. Modification of Heat-Related Mortality in an Elderly Urban Population by Vegetation (Urban Green) and Proximity to Water (Urban Blue): Evidence from Lisbon, Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, Katrin; Meier, Fred; Schneider, Alexandra; Breitner, Susanne; Canário, Paulo; Alcoforado, Maria João; Scherer, Dieter; Endlicher, Wilfried

    2016-07-01

    Urban populations are highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of heat, with heat-related mortality showing intra-urban variations that are likely due to differences in urban characteristics and socioeconomic status. We investigated the influence of urban green and urban blue, that is, urban vegetation and water bodies, on heat-related excess mortality in the elderly > 65 years old in Lisbon, Portugal, between 1998 and 2008. We used remotely sensed data and geographic information to determine the amount of urban vegetation and the distance to bodies of water (the Atlantic Ocean and the Tagus Estuary). Poisson generalized additive models were fitted, allowing for the interaction between equivalent temperature [universal thermal climate index (UTCI)] and quartiles of urban greenness [classified using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)] and proximity to water (≤ 4 km vs. > 4 km), while adjusting for potential confounders. The association between mortality and a 1°C increase in UTCI above the 99th percentile (24.8°C) was stronger for areas in the lowest NDVI quartile (14.7% higher; 95% CI: 1.9, 17.5%) than for areas in the highest quartile (3.0%; 95% CI: 2.0, 4.0%). In areas > 4 km from water, a 1°C increase in UTCI above the 99th percentile was associated with a 7.1% increase in mortality (95% CI: 6.2, 8.1%), whereas in areas ≤ 4 km from water, the estimated increase in mortality was only 2.1% (95% CI: 1.2, 3.0%). Urban green and blue appeared to have a mitigating effect on heat-related mortality in the elderly population in Lisbon. Increasing the amount of vegetation may be a good strategy to counteract the adverse effects of heat in urban areas. Our findings also suggest potential benefits of urban blue that may be present several kilometers from a body of water. Burkart K, Meier F, Schneider A, Breitner S, Canário P, Alcoforado MJ, Scherer D, Endlicher W. 2016. Modification of heat-related mortality in an elderly urban population by

  14. Estimating urban vegetation fraction across 25 cities in pan-Pacific using Landsat time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yuhao; Coops, Nicholas C.; Hermosilla, Txomin

    2017-04-01

    Urbanization globally is consistently reshaping the natural landscape to accommodate the growing human population. Urban vegetation plays a key role in moderating environmental impacts caused by urbanization and is critically important for local economic, social and cultural development. The differing patterns of human population growth, varying urban structures and development stages, results in highly varied spatial and temporal vegetation patterns particularly in the pan-Pacific region which has some of the fastest urbanization rates globally. Yet spatially-explicit temporal information on the amount and change of urban vegetation is rarely documented particularly in less developed nations. Remote sensing offers an exceptional data source and a unique perspective to map urban vegetation and change due to its consistency and ubiquitous nature. In this research, we assess the vegetation fractions of 25 cities across 12 pan-Pacific countries using annual gap-free Landsat surface reflectance products acquired from 1984 to 2012, using sub-pixel, spectral unmixing approaches. Vegetation change trends were then analyzed using Mann-Kendall statistics and Theil-Sen slope estimators. Unmixing results successfully mapped urban vegetation for pixels located in urban parks, forested mountainous regions, as well as agricultural land (correlation coefficient ranging from 0.66 to 0.77). The greatest vegetation loss from 1984 to 2012 was found in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Dalian in China. In contrast, cities including Vancouver (Canada) and Seattle (USA) showed stable vegetation trends through time. Using temporal trend analysis, our results suggest that it is possible to reduce noise and outliers caused by phenological changes particularly in cropland using dense new Landsat time series approaches. We conclude that simple yet effective approaches of unmixing Landsat time series data for assessing spatial and temporal changes of urban vegetation at regional scales can provide

  15. Measuring urban agglomeration using a city-scale dasymetric population map: A study in the Pearl River Delta, China

    OpenAIRE

    Wei, Chunzhu; Taubenböck, Hannes; Blaschke, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    The rates of urbanization and increase in urban sprawl that have occurred in China over the past thirty years have been unprecedented. This article presents a new city-scale dasymetric modelling approach that incorporates historical census data for 28 cities in the Pearl River Delta area of southern China. It combines Landsat imagery (from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015) with a ‘limiting variable’ estimation al-gorithm to generate a gridded estimate of population density. These gridded population...

  16. Human population, urban settlement patterns and their impact on Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kabaria Caroline W

    2008-10-01

    significant differences between author-defined 'urban' and 'rural' designations in Africa, but not for the remainder of the malaria endemic world. The Global Rural Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP urban extent mask proved most accurate for mapping these author-defined rural and urban locations, and further sub-divisions of urban extents into urban and peri-urban classes enabled the effects of high population densities on malaria transmission to be mapped and quantified. Conclusion The availability of detailed, contemporary census and urban extent data for the construction of coherent and accurate global spatial population databases is often poor. These known sources of uncertainty in population surfaces and urban maps have the potential to be incorporated into future malaria burden estimates. Currently, insufficient spatial information exists globally to identify areas accurately where population density is low enough to impact upon transmission. Medical intelligence does however exist to reliably identify malaria free cities. Moreover, in Africa, urban areas that have a significant effect on malaria transmission can be mapped.

  17. Population in urban development and the practical problems of urban planning policy in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Uyanga

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the pattern of recent growth in African towns, examines the population component in this growth process and discusses the attendant urban planning problems. The contention in the study is that there are problems of definition. policy enunciation, and organisational co-ordination in the conceptualization. planning. orchestration and implementation of urban development and service systems. The magnitude of African urban developmental problems, and its multi-faceted nature demands that the latest in scientific knowledge and technological innovations should be integrated and incorporated into the urban planning and implementation processes.

  18. Estimating the burden of disease attributable to urban outdoor air ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Outdoor air pollution in urban areas in South Africa was estimated to cause 3.7% of the national mortality from cardiopulmonary disease and 5.1 % of mortality attributable to cancers of the trachea, bronchus and lung in adults aged 30 years and older, and 1.1 % of mortality from ARis in children under 5 years of age.

  19. Urban forest biomass estimates: is it important to use allometric relationships developed specifically for urban trees? 

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.R. McHale; I.C. Burke; M.A. Lefsky; P.J. Peper; E.G. McPherson

    2009-01-01

    Many studies have analyzed the benefits, costs, and carbon storage capacity associated with urban trees. These studies have been limited by a lack of research on urban tree biomass, such that estimates of carbon storage in urban systems have relied upon allometric relationships developed in traditional forests. As urbanization increases globally, it is becoming...

  20. Examining The Evolution Of The Khuzestan Urban Population Using The Urban Primacy Indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mokhtar Karami

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Examining the status of a city in the surrounding metropolitan area network not only helpful for Specialists to understand the ups and downs of city life and surrounding it but also can set the groundwork for hierarchical relationships settlements and planners for discipline the urban network is studied. Research to study the evolution of the urban population in Khuzestan province was conducted during the statistical period 1957-2012. The method is a descriptive and analytical study. To collect the data in addition the study of literature the Facts Sheet the statistical yearbooks and census of population and housing censuses in all courses has been used. Then to enter data and analysis it the Excel and Minitab software was used. Models used in this study are Ginsberg index Urban Primacy Index Two City Index Four City Index Mehtas Four City Index Moomav and Alwosabi. The results show that is balance between the parameters of the Urban Primacy Indexes in Khuzestan province since 1957 to 1977. The process of balancing continue and is destroy until the beginning of the Imposed war and the depletion of the population of cities and in 1987 the Urban Primacy Index reached its highest level and due to the problems of the war in Ahvaz it earns the highest the Urban Primacy Index. Since 1987 the Urban Primacy Index reduced and their balancing process continues until 2012 that this balancing process due to natural population growth since after 1997.

  1. Diabetes mellitus and impaired glucose tolerance in urban adult population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Rodrigues Júnior

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Estimating the prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT in the urban population aged between 30 and 69 years in the municipality of Campo Grande, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Methods: Population-based cross-sectional study conducted between October/2009 and February/2011. The investigation included the determination of fasting glucose and participants with blood glucose ≥ 200 mg/dL were considered diabetic. Nondiabetic patients, which showed blood glucose ≥ 100 mg/dL and < 200 mg/dL, underwent an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT to investigate whether they had DM or IGT. Results: 1.429 individuals participated in this investigation. The general prevalence, adjusted for sex and age, were: 12.3% for DM (95%CI: 10.5 to 13.9% and 7.1% for IGT (95%CI: 5.7 to 8.4%. There was a higher prevalence of DM with increasing age in people with low educational level, family history of diabetes, overweight, obesity and central obesity. Among diabetic patients (n = 195, 25% were unaware they had the disease and were diagnosed through investigation. Among patients who already knew they had DM (n = 146, 37% were unaware of the potential chronic complications. Conclusion: This study confirms the increased prevalence of DM in Brazil and emphasizes the need for early diagnosis, as well as the importance of strict adherence to medical treatment in order to prevent its much feared complications.

  2. TWO METHODS FOR REMOTE ESTIMATION OF COMPLETE URBAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Jiang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Complete urban surface temperature (TC is a key parameter for evaluating the energy exchange between the urban surface and atmosphere. At the present stage, the estimation of TC still needs detailed 3D structure information of the urban surface, however, it is often difficult to obtain the geometric structure and composition of the corresponding temperature of urban surface, so that there is still lack of concise and efficient method for estimating the TC by remote sensing. Based on the four typical urban surface scale models, combined with the Envi-met model, thermal radiant directionality forward modeling and kernel model, we analyzed a complete day and night cycle hourly component temperature and radiation temperature in each direction of two seasons of summer and winter, and calculated hemispherical integral temperature and TC. The conclusion is obtained by examining the relationship of directional radiation temperature, hemispherical integral temperature and TC: (1 There is an optimal angle of radiation temperature approaching the TC in a single observation direction when viewing zenith angle is 45–60°, the viewing azimuth near the vertical surface of the sun main plane, the average absolute difference is about 1.1 K in the daytime. (2 There are several (3–5 times directional temperatures of different view angle, under the situation of using the thermal radiation directionality kernel model can more accurately calculate the hemispherical integral temperature close to TC, the mean absolute error is about 1.0 K in the daytime. This study proposed simple and effective strategies for estimating TC by remote sensing, which are expected to improve the quantitative level of remote sensing of urban thermal environment.

  3. Genetic diversity and population structure in contemporary house sparrow populations along an urbanization gradient

    OpenAIRE

    Vangestel, C; Mergeay, Joachim; Dawson, D. A; Callens, T; Vandomme, V; Lens, L

    2012-01-01

    House sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have suffered major declines in urban as well as rural areas, while remaining relatively stable in suburban ones. Yet, to date no exhaustive attempt has been made to examine how, and to what extent, spatial variation in population demography is reflected in genetic population structuring along contemporary urbanization gradients. Here we use putatively neutral microsatellite loci to study if and how genetic variation can be partitioned in a hierar...

  4. Conceptualizing Astronomical Distances for Urban Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popinchalk, Mark; Olson, Kristen; Ingber, Jenny; O'Brien, Mariel

    2017-01-01

    Students living in urban environments may have a washed-out night sky, but their enthusiasm for astronomy can still shine bright. As an educator, it can sometimes be a challenge to see the opportunities afforded by city living to the teaching of astronomy; however, several benefits can be identified. For example, the intrinsic understanding children have of the distances and scales involved in their everyday life is enhanced when they live in a regimented urban structure. This existing understanding of scale is critical to building a foundation for later conceptualizing of the universe.Leveraging the assets of New York City and the resources found in the American Museum of Natural History, The Science and Nature Program offers students (PreK through 8th grade) robust science learning experiences. To address concepts important for studying astronomy, we present a novel twist on the classic lesson “Earth as a Peppercorn,” by scaling the solar system to the size of New York City. Using local landmarks and their distance in relation to the Museum to represent the planets, students can use their prior knowledge of their surroundings to appreciate the impressive scale of our neighborhood in space in the context of their own neighborhoods. We correlate the activity with NGSS standards, present preliminary feedback on it’s success, and discuss the opportunities to apply a similar model lesson to other astronomical systems.

  5. GLUE Based Uncertainty Estimation of Urban Drainage Modeling Using Weather Radar Precipitation Estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2011-01-01

    Distributed weather radar precipitation measurements are used as rainfall input for an urban drainage model, to simulate the runoff from a small catchment of Denmark. It is demonstrated how the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology can be implemented and used to estimate...

  6. Estimating population salt intake in India using spot urine samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Kristina S; Johnson, Claire; Mohan, Sailesh; Rogers, Kris; Shivashankar, Roopa; Thout, Sudhir Raj; Gupta, Priti; He, Feng J; MacGregor, Graham A; Webster, Jacqui; Santos, Joseph Alvin; Krishnan, Anand; Maulik, Pallab K; Reddy, K Srinath; Gupta, Ruby; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Neal, Bruce

    2017-11-01

    To compare estimates of mean population salt intake in North and South India derived from spot urine samples versus 24-h urine collections. In a cross-sectional survey, participants were sampled from slum, urban and rural communities in North and in South India. Participants provided 24-h urine collections, and random morning spot urine samples. Salt intake was estimated from the spot urine samples using a series of established estimating equations. Salt intake data from the 24-h urine collections and spot urine equations were weighted to provide estimates of salt intake for Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh. A total of 957 individuals provided a complete 24-h urine collection and a spot urine sample. Weighted mean salt intake based on the 24-h urine collection, was 8.59 (95% confidence interval 7.73-9.45) and 9.46 g/day (8.95-9.96) in Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh, respectively. Corresponding estimates based on the Tanaka equation [9.04 (8.63-9.45) and 9.79 g/day (9.62-9.96) for Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh, respectively], the Mage equation [8.80 (7.67-9.94) and 10.19 g/day (95% CI 9.59-10.79)], the INTERSALT equation [7.99 (7.61-8.37) and 8.64 g/day (8.04-9.23)] and the INTERSALT equation with potassium [8.13 (7.74-8.52) and 8.81 g/day (8.16-9.46)] were all within 1 g/day of the estimate based upon 24-h collections. For the Toft equation, estimates were 1-2 g/day higher [9.94 (9.24-10.64) and 10.69 g/day (9.44-11.93)] and for the Kawasaki equation they were 3-4 g/day higher [12.14 (11.30-12.97) and 13.64 g/day (13.15-14.12)]. In urban and rural areas in North and South India, most spot urine-based equations provided reasonable estimates of mean population salt intake. Equations that did not provide good estimates may have failed because specimen collection was not aligned with the original method.

  7. Population-based assessment of heartburn in urban Black Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedenberg, F K; Makipour, K; Palit, A; Shah, S; Vanar, V; Richter, J E

    2013-08-01

    Prevalence data for heartburn in the urban Black American community is lacking. In order to estimate prevalence for this community, we analyzed data from an ongoing cohort study in progress at our hospital. Comprehensive interviews allowed for exploration of factors associated with heartburn. Complex, stratified sampling design was the method used. Survey invitations are hand-delivered to random blocks in a single zip code tabulation area. One member per eligible household is invited to complete a computer-based survey. Heartburn was defined as ≥ 3 days/week of symptoms as defined by the Montreal Definition and Classification of gastroesophageal reflux disease. Scaling and weighting factors were utilized to estimate population level prevalence. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent predictor variables for heartburn. Enrolled 379 participants corresponding to a weighted sample size of 22,409 (20,888-23,930) citizens. Demographic characteristics of the sample closely matched those of the entire targeted population. Overall, the weighted prevalence of heartburn ≥ 3 times per week was 17.6% (16.4-18.8%). Variables independently associated with heartburn were body mass index, daily caloric and fat intake, diabetes mellitus (odds ratio = 2.95; 2.59-3.36), cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption (odds ratio = 2.55; 2.25-2.89). Factors inversely associated included illicit drug use and increased physical activity. Waist : hip ratio showed no relationship. The prevalence of heartburn ≥ 3 times per week is high in the Black American community. Adverse lifestyle behaviors showed particularly important associations. Our study needs to be replicated in other communities with similar demographics. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus.

  8. CDC WONDER: Population - Bridged-Race July 1st Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Population - Bridged-Race July 1st Estimates online databases report bridged-race population estimates of the July 1st resident population of the United States,...

  9. Computer simulation of population dynamics inside the urban environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreev, A. S.; Inovenkov, I. N.; Echkina, E. Yu.; Nefedov, V. V.; Ponomarenko, L. S.; Tikhomirov, V. V.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper using a mathematical model of the so-called “space-dynamic” approach we investigate the problem of development and temporal dynamics of different urban population groups. For simplicity we consider an interaction of only two population groups inside a single urban area with axial symmetry. This problem can be described qualitatively by a system of two non-stationary nonlinear differential equations of the diffusion type with boundary conditions of the third type. The results of numerical simulations show that with a suitable choice of the diffusion coefficients and interaction functions between different population groups we can receive different scenarios of population dynamics: from complete displacement of one population group by another (originally more “aggressive”) to the “peaceful” situation of co-existence of them together.

  10. Urban population and economic growth: South Asia perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandip Sarker

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Previously economic growth was generally discussed in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI, educational growth, savings, investments, inflation as well as trade openness of a nation. Very recently it has been identified that population is one of the major determinants of economic growth of a nation. In the recent years, the study of urbanization has gained a matter of concern in developing countries as it has been recognized as part of a larger process of economic development which is affecting developing countries. South Asian countries are one of the emerging economics and growing at a faster rate over the past few years. At the same time, population of South Asia is growing at a significant rate. Therefore the study has attempted to identify the causal relationship between urban population and economic growth in South Asia using a panel data analysis. The study makes use of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF and Phillips-Perron (PP, Pesaran as well as Fisher methods for panel unit root test. The panel Pedroni cointegration test suggests that there is long run relationship between the variables. The further panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM suggests that there is long run causality running from urban population growth to economic growth in South Asia. The study concludes that the growth of urban population can have significant impact on economic growth in South Asia in the long run.

  11. Population health and urban form : a review of the literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-11-01

    A review examining the links between public health and living spaces was presented. The aim of the review was to explore whether different urban forms created communities that encouraged healthy living and resulted in a healthier population as well as to suggest avenues and approaches for further research of the subject in British Columbia. The historical links between public health and community planning were examined. A conceptual model of the linkages of urban form and population health was developed and used to identify ways in which urban form and population health are linked. Areas of concern include vehicle emissions, water quality and heat build-up as well as noise pollution. Issues concerning health inequalities related to income and access to health services were examined, as well as the role that urban form plays as a barrier to physical activity. Findings indicated that there is a strong correlation between urban form and health. Lower density urban forms that require a vehicle generated more miles travelled by car with more traffic crashes and higher risks to pedestrians and cyclists. A growing body of evidence has indicated that community contacts are scarcer in low density areas. In addition, low density dwellers seemed to have higher stress levels. Car dependent lifestyles had negative impacts on children's play, growth and development. Urban forms which promoted a range of housing options in terms of affordability, tenure and type allowed people to remain within their neighbourhoods. Disadvantaged groups fared better in denser areas where there were more public facilities. 62 refs. 1 tab., 2 figs

  12. Nutrient load estimates for Manila Bay, Philippines using population data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotto, Lara Patricia A.; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Villanoy, Cesar L.; Bouwman, Lex F.; Jacinto, Gil S.

    2015-06-01

    A major source of nutrient load to periodically hypoxic Manila Bay is the urban nutrient waste water flow from humans and industries to surface water. In Manila alone, the population density is as high as 19,137 people/km2. A model based on a global point source model by Morée et al. (2013) was used to estimate the contribution of the population to nitrogen and phosphorus emissions which was then used in a water transport model to estimate the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads to Manila Bay. Seven scenarios for 2050 were tested, with varying degrees and amounts for extent of sewage treatment, and population growth rates were also included. In scenario 1, the sewage connection and treatment remains the same as 2010; in scenario 2, sewage connection is improved but the treatment is the same; in scenario 3, the sewage connection as well as treatment is improved (70% tertiary); and in scenario 4, a more realistic situation of 70% primary treatment achieved with 100% connection to pipes is tested. Scenarios 5, 6, and 7 have the same parameters as 1, 2, and 3 respectively, but with the population growth rate per province reduced to half of what was used in 1, 2, and 3. In all scenarios, a significant increase in N and P loads was observed (varying from 27% to 469% relative to 2010 values). This was found even in scenario 3 where 70% of the waste water undergoes tertiary treatment which removes 80% N and 90% P. However, the lowest increase in N and P load into the bay was achieved in scenarios 5 to 7 where population growth rate is reduced to half of 2010 values. The results suggest that aside from improving sewage treatment, the continued increase of the human population in Manila at current growth rates will be an important determinant of N and P load into Manila Bay.

  13. Population growth, urban expansion, and private forestry in western Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey D. Kline; David L. Azuma; Ralph J. Alig

    2004-01-01

    Private forestlands in the United States face increasing pressures from growing populations, resulting in greater numbers of people living in closer proximity to forests. What often is called the "wildland/urban interface" is characterized by expansion of residential and other developed land uses onto forested landscapes in a manner that threatens forestlands...

  14. Population pressure and health risks in urban market environment: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population pressure and health risks in urban market environment: a study of Bodija market, Ibadan, Nigeria. ... International Journal of Development and Management Review ... This study was directed at permanent sellers in Bodija Market, (men and women) and people who frequent the market to make purchases.

  15. Living with infertility : Experiences among urban slum populations in Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Papreen, N; Sabin, K; Begum, L; Ahsan, SK; Baqui, AH

    This paper explores the perceived causes of infertility, treatment-seeking for infertility and the consequences of childlessness, particularly for women, among a predominantly Muslim population in urban slums of Dhaka in Bangladesh. In-depth interviews were conducted with 60 women and GO men

  16. Designing Urban Experiences for a Suburban Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jantzen, Christian; Vetner, Mikael

    In the planning of Almere special attention was paid to establishing attractive  surroundings for modern middle class living. Accordingly the city was developed as a  network of suburbs with ample space for gardens, parks etc., and with an infrastructure aimed  at keeping different forms......, as a consequence of the governmental policy for  future regional development, agreed upon in the 1990es, Almere remains a kernel for future  growth. The population of the city is expected to extend further in the next decades. In 2030 it  should thus have 350.000 inhabitants, becoming by then the fifth largest......  dwellers, and also new segments of citizens with other preferences and more pronounced  expectations (esp. upper middle class, which at the time being are largely absent). To face  these challenges, the city council in 1995 decided to develop a new city centre, which should  enhance Almere’s regional...

  17. Stature Estimation for Bosnian Male Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nermin Sarajlić

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Since 1996, the Trotter and Gleser formulae to determine the stature of recovered missing persons in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been used. The purpose of this study is to develop appropriate stature estimation formulae from the length of the femur, tibia and fibula for use in the Bosnia and Herzegovina to help in identifications of the victims. Research was undertaken on 50 male cadavers, of individuals who died between the ages of 23 to 54 years. The cadaver length was measured and the length of the long bones was obtained from X-ray photographs. The length of the cadavers of the individuals who died after age of 45 years was corrected according to Giles' table. This study established that using Trotter and Gleser's formulae underestimate stature of tall people in the current population of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Smallest standard error of estimate is observed in the formula that uses the sum of the length of femur and fibula. There are no statistically significant differences between the length of the bones from the left and right sides of the body. Therefore, formulae developed from the average length of bone pairs are recommended for use.

  18. Population: Census Bureau Total Estimates (2010-2012)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — Total population estimates are estimates of the total number of residents living in an area on July 1 of each year. The Census Bureau’s Population Division produces...

  19. Spatially disaggregated population estimates in the absence of national population and housing census data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardrop, N. A.; Jochem, W. C.; Bird, T. J.; Chamberlain, H. R.; Clarke, D.; Kerr, D.; Bengtsson, L.; Juran, S.; Seaman, V.; Tatem, A. J.

    2018-01-01

    Population numbers at local levels are fundamental data for many applications, including the delivery and planning of services, election preparation, and response to disasters. In resource-poor settings, recent and reliable demographic data at subnational scales can often be lacking. National population and housing census data can be outdated, inaccurate, or missing key groups or areas, while registry data are generally lacking or incomplete. Moreover, at local scales accurate boundary data are often limited, and high rates of migration and urban growth make existing data quickly outdated. Here we review past and ongoing work aimed at producing spatially disaggregated local-scale population estimates, and discuss how new technologies are now enabling robust and cost-effective solutions. Recent advances in the availability of detailed satellite imagery, geopositioning tools for field surveys, statistical methods, and computational power are enabling the development and application of approaches that can estimate population distributions at fine spatial scales across entire countries in the absence of census data. We outline the potential of such approaches as well as their limitations, emphasizing the political and operational hurdles for acceptance and sustainable implementation of new approaches, and the continued importance of traditional sources of national statistical data. PMID:29555739

  20. Urban scale air quality modelling using detailed traffic emissions estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrego, C.; Amorim, J. H.; Tchepel, O.; Dias, D.; Rafael, S.; Sá, E.; Pimentel, C.; Fontes, T.; Fernandes, P.; Pereira, S. R.; Bandeira, J. M.; Coelho, M. C.

    2016-04-01

    The atmospheric dispersion of NOx and PM10 was simulated with a second generation Gaussian model over a medium-size south-European city. Microscopic traffic models calibrated with GPS data were used to derive typical driving cycles for each road link, while instantaneous emissions were estimated applying a combined Vehicle Specific Power/Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (VSP/EMEP) methodology. Site-specific background concentrations were estimated using time series analysis and a low-pass filter applied to local observations. Air quality modelling results are compared against measurements at two locations for a 1 week period. 78% of the results are within a factor of two of the observations for 1-h average concentrations, increasing to 94% for daily averages. Correlation significantly improves when background is added, with an average of 0.89 for the 24 h record. The results highlight the potential of detailed traffic and instantaneous exhaust emissions estimates, together with filtered urban background, to provide accurate input data to Gaussian models applied at the urban scale.

  1. On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua

    2013-09-01

    Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  2. The Improved Estimation of Ratio of Two Population Proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solanki, Ramkrishna S.; Singh, Housila P.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, first we obtained the correct mean square error expression of Gupta and Shabbir's linear weighted estimator of the ratio of two population proportions. Later we suggested the general class of ratio estimators of two population proportions. The usual ratio estimator, Wynn-type estimator, Singh, Singh, and Kaur difference-type…

  3. Procedural modeling of urban layout: population, land use, and road network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lyu, X.; Han, Q.; de Vries, B.

    2017-01-01

    This paper introduces an urban simulation system generating urban layouts with population, road network and land use layers. The desired urban spatial structure is obtained by generating a population map based on population density models. The road network is generated at two spatial levels

  4. Population Estimation in Singapore Based on Remote Sensing and Open Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, H.; Cao, K.; Wang, P.

    2017-09-01

    Population estimation statistics are widely used in government, commercial and educational sectors for a variety of purposes. With growing emphases on real-time and detailed population information, data users nowadays have switched from traditional census data to more technology-based data source such as LiDAR point cloud and High-Resolution Satellite Imagery. Nevertheless, such data are costly and periodically unavailable. In this paper, the authors use West Coast District, Singapore as a case study to investigate the applicability and effectiveness of using satellite image from Google Earth for extraction of building footprint and population estimation. At the same time, volunteered geographic information (VGI) is also utilized as ancillary data for building footprint extraction. Open data such as Open Street Map OSM could be employed to enhance the extraction process. In view of challenges in building shadow extraction, this paper discusses several methods including buffer, mask and shape index to improve accuracy. It also illustrates population estimation methods based on building height and number of floor estimates. The results show that the accuracy level of housing unit method on population estimation can reach 92.5 %, which is remarkably accurate. This paper thus provides insights into techniques for building extraction and fine-scale population estimation, which will benefit users such as urban planners in terms of policymaking and urban planning of Singapore.

  5. POPULATION ESTIMATION IN SINGAPORE BASED ON REMOTE SENSING AND OPEN DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Guo

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Population estimation statistics are widely used in government, commercial and educational sectors for a variety of purposes. With growing emphases on real-time and detailed population information, data users nowadays have switched from traditional census data to more technology-based data source such as LiDAR point cloud and High-Resolution Satellite Imagery. Nevertheless, such data are costly and periodically unavailable. In this paper, the authors use West Coast District, Singapore as a case study to investigate the applicability and effectiveness of using satellite image from Google Earth for extraction of building footprint and population estimation. At the same time, volunteered geographic information (VGI is also utilized as ancillary data for building footprint extraction. Open data such as Open Street Map(OSM)could be employed to enhance the extraction process. In view of challenges in building shadow extraction, this paper discusses several methods including buffer, mask and shape index to improve accuracy. It also illustrates population estimation methods based on building height and number of floor estimates. The results show that the accuracy level of housing unit method on population estimation can reach 92.5 %, which is remarkably accurate. This paper thus provides insights into techniques for building extraction and fine-scale population estimation, which will benefit users such as urban planners in terms of policymaking and urban planning of Singapore.

  6. Urban Landscape Spatial Pattern Estimation of Cities in Shandong Province Using Nighttime Luminosity Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, J.; He, H.; Hu, T.; Li, G.; Gao, H.; Zhao, X.

    2017-09-01

    China's cities have been undergoing rapid and intense urbanization processes in the past few decades. Shandong is a coastal province which is located in East China with big economy and population scales, and which also plays an important role in the rapid process of China's modernization. The DMSP/OLS dataset has been widely used for the urban development assessments in long time-series and large spatial scales situations. In this paper, we used a time series of nighttime light data to estimate the landscape spatial pattern changes of cities in Shandong province from 1994 to 2012. Nine landscape metrics were calculated and analyzed to figure out the spatial patterns of urban area developments of the cities in Shandong province. The landscape metrics include the number of patches (NP), the landscape total area (TA), the aggregation index (AI), the largest patch index (LPI), the mean patch area (AREA_MN), the landscape shape index (LSI), the total edge length (TE), the edge density (ED), and the mean radius of gyration (GYRATE_MN). The experimental results reveal that, in 1994-2012, the total urban area of cities in Shandong province expanded for 1.17 times, the average urban area increased by about 93.00%, the average annual growth rate of the TE metric is 2.67 %, while the ED metric decreased about 1.44 % annually. Bigger cities in this area show relative slower urbanization development processes, such as Jinan and Qingdao. Coastal cities represented much more rapid expansion velocities than inland cities. In the middle area of Shandong province, the connectivity between developed urban areas was constantly increased.

  7. URBAN LANDSCAPE SPATIAL PATTERN ESTIMATION OF CITIES IN SHANDONG PROVINCE USING NIGHTTIME LUMINOSITY DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Fan

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available China’s cities have been undergoing rapid and intense urbanization processes in the past few decades. Shandong is a coastal province which is located in East China with big economy and population scales, and which also plays an important role in the rapid process of China’s modernization. The DMSP/OLS dataset has been widely used for the urban development assessments in long time-series and large spatial scales situations. In this paper, we used a time series of nighttime light data to estimate the landscape spatial pattern changes of cities in Shandong province from 1994 to 2012. Nine landscape metrics were calculated and analyzed to figure out the spatial patterns of urban area developments of the cities in Shandong province. The landscape metrics include the number of patches (NP, the landscape total area (TA, the aggregation index (AI, the largest patch index (LPI, the mean patch area (AREA_MN, the landscape shape index (LSI, the total edge length (TE, the edge density (ED, and the mean radius of gyration (GYRATE_MN. The experimental results reveal that, in 1994–2012, the total urban area of cities in Shandong province expanded for 1.17 times, the average urban area increased by about 93.00%, the average annual growth rate of the TE metric is 2.67 %, while the ED metric decreased about 1.44 % annually. Bigger cities in this area show relative slower urbanization development processes, such as Jinan and Qingdao. Coastal cities represented much more rapid expansion velocities than inland cities. In the middle area of Shandong province, the connectivity between developed urban areas was constantly increased.

  8. Methodology proposal for estimation of carbon storage in urban green areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schröder, C.; Mancosu, E.; Roerink, G.J.

    2013-01-01

    Methodology proposal for estimation of carbon storage in urban green areas; final report. Subtitle: Final report of task Task 262-5-6 "Carbon sequestration in urban green infrastructure" Project manager Marie Cugny-Seguin. Date: 15-10-2013

  9. Urban area and green space: volume estimation using medium resolution satellite imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handayani, H. H.

    2017-12-01

    The latest revision of the UN World Urbanization Prospects predicts the world's urban population to increase by 1.4 billion between 2010 and 2030, 60% of the population will live in cities. Consequently, this expansion affects the existence of ecosystem services in the context of sustainability environment. Green space is a focal point of the ecological system and is affected by the urbanization process. The green space has essential functions in cleaning the water, adjusting the microclimate, eliminating noise, and beautifying the surrounding makes the green quantity as well as quality very vital to its existence. The urban expansion leads the growth into vertical development. Therefore, the third dimension using urban volume as an indicator of vertical development is introduced. Therefore, this study estimates the urban and green volume by using medium resolution remote sensing. Surabaya is used as a case study since the city has grown up significantly in both of population and capital investment in this decade. Here, urban and green volume is investigated by ALOS datasets with urban referring built-up. Also, we examine the area with low and high green volume by performing hot and cold spots analysis. The average of built-up volume reaches 173.05 m3/pixel presented by the building for a residential single house with the height less than 7m. The average of green volume is 14.74m3/pixel performed by the vegetation with the height generally 0.6 to 1m which is frequently planted in the backyard of house. However, the ratio of green volume to the built-up volume shows a small portion which is around 8.52%. Therefore, we identify the hot and cold spots, we evaluate 5 areas having cold spot regarding lack of green volume. The two locations of cold spot are located in the northern part and another is in the southern part. Those areas have high number of built-up volume which is in particularly as sub-CBD area. We emphasize that the improvement of green quantity is needed

  10. Interpolating a consumption variable for scaling and generalizing potential population pressure on urbanizing natural areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varanka, Dalia; Jiang, Bin; Yao, Xiaobai

    2010-01-01

    Measures of population pressure, referring in general to the stress upon the environment by human consumption of resources, are imperative for environmental sustainability studies and management. Development based on resource consumption is the predominant factor of population pressure. This paper presents a spatial model of population pressure by linking consumption associated with regional urbanism and ecosystem services. Maps representing relative geographic degree and extent of natural resource consumption and degree and extent of impacts on surrounding areas are new, and this research represents the theoretical research toward this goal. With development, such maps offer a visualization tool for planners of various services, amenities for people, and conservation planning for ecologist. Urbanization is commonly generalized by census numbers or impervious surface area. The potential geographical extent of urbanism encompasses the environmental resources of the surrounding region that sustain cities. This extent is interpolated using kriging of a variable based on population wealth data from the U.S. Census Bureau. When overlayed with land-use/land-cover data, the results indicate that the greatest estimates of population pressure fall within mixed forest areas. Mixed forest areas result from the spread of cedar woods in previously disturbed areas where further disturbance is then suppressed. Low density areas, such as suburbanization and abandoned farmland are characteristic of mixed forest areas.

  11. Cardiovascular risk assessment between urban and rural population in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor Hassim, I; Norazman, M R; Diana, M; Khairul Hazdi, Y; Rosnah, I

    2016-12-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) caused significant burden to Malaysia as it accounted for 36% of total deaths. This study aims to evaluate the burden of cardiovascular risk factors among Malaysian adult and assess the difference between urban and rural population in the selected communities. This study is part of the ongoing Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) database, whereby the baseline data were collected since June 2008. CVD risk was measured using INTERHEART risk score which comprised of eleven risk factors i.e. age and gender, family history of heart attack, smoking status, exposure to second hand smoke, diabetes mellitus, hypertension status, waist-hip ratio, self-reported stress, depression, dietary habits and physical activity status. Majority of the studied participants had low cardiovascular risk (57%). Participants from rural area were generally older, had lower educational status, higher prevalence of smokers, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and more likely to be depressed. In comparison, urbanites had lower physical activities and more likely to be stressful. Mean INTERHEART score among rural participants were higher, especially for male, in comparison to urbanite (11.5±5.83 vs. 10.01±5.74, p<0.001). Contradict to common beliefs, participants in rural areas generally have higher cardiovascular risk factors compared to their urban counterparts. The rural population should be targeted for focused preventive interventions, taking account the socioeconomic and cultural context.

  12. [The use of census data to estimate levels of urbanization].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darwin, M; Tukiran

    1991-01-01

    Problems concerning changes in the definition of urbanization for demographic analysis are examined. "This article attempts to examine the problem by clarifying the definition of the concept and indicators of urban and urbanization and by making a longitudinal analysis of urbanization using the Indonesian 1920-1990 Census data." (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

  13. Procedural modeling of urban layout: population, land use, and road network

    OpenAIRE

    Lyu, X.; Han, Q.; de Vries, B.

    2017-01-01

    This paper introduces an urban simulation system generating urban layouts with population, road network and land use layers. The desired urban spatial structure is obtained by generating a population map based on population density models. The road network is generated at two spatial levels corresponding to the road hierarchy. The land use allocation is based on the What If? allocation model. The expected results are urban layouts suitable for academic scenario analysis.

  14. HEALTH OF URBAN POPULATION IN MOSCOW AND BEIJING AGGLOMERETIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svetlana M. Malkhazova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results obtained under the joint Russian-Chinese RFBR project № 12-05-91175-ГФЕН_а aimed at assessment of the state of the environment and health of the population in urban areas in Russia and China. The paper presents the authors’ approach to a comprehensive evaluation of the impact of the environment on the populationhealth of urban agglomerations and a method of regional medico-geographical analysis. A series of analytical and synthetic maps was compiled and used for a comparative geographical analysis of medical and environmental situation in Moscow and Beijing – major metropolitan areas with different natural and socio-economic conditions. The paper discusses the influence of the environment on the state of public health and identifies the leading risk factors, both general and specific to each region.

  15. Prevalence of metabolic syndrome among an urban population in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaduka, Lydia U; Kombe, Yeri; Kenya, Eucharia; Kuria, Elizabeth; Bore, John K; Bukania, Zipporah N; Mwangi, Moses

    2012-04-01

    Developing countries are undergoing an epidemiologic transition accompanied by increasing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) linked to urbanization and lifestyle modifications. Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of CVD risk factors whose extent in Kenya remains unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and factors associated with its occurrence among an urban population in Kenya. This was a household cross-sectional survey comprising 539 adults (aged ≥18 years) living in Nairobi, drawn from 30 clusters across five socioeconomic classes. Measurements included waist circumference, HDL cholesterol, triacylglycerides (TAGs), fasting glucose, and blood pressure. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 34.6% and was higher in women than in men (40.2 vs. 29%; P Kenya. The Kenyan government needs to create awareness, develop prevention strategies, and strengthen the health care system to accommodate screening and management of CVDs.

  16. Comparison of distance sampling estimates to a known population ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Line-transect sampling was used to obtain abundance estimates of an Ant-eating Chat Myrmecocichla formicivora population to compare these with the true size of the population. The population size was determined by a long-term banding study, and abundance estimates were obtained by surveying line transects.

  17. Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of an Urban Surface Energy Balance Parameterization at a Tropical Suburban Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harshan, S.; Roth, M.; Velasco, E.

    2014-12-01

    Forecasting of the urban weather and climate is of great importance as our cities become more populated and considering the combined effects of global warming and local land use changes which make urban inhabitants more vulnerable to e.g. heat waves and flash floods. In meso/global scale models, urban parameterization schemes are used to represent the urban effects. However, these schemes require a large set of input parameters related to urban morphological and thermal properties. Obtaining all these parameters through direct measurements are usually not feasible. A number of studies have reported on parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis to adjust and determine the most influential parameters for land surface schemes in non-urban areas. Similar work for urban areas is scarce, in particular studies on urban parameterization schemes in tropical cities have so far not been reported. In order to address above issues, the town energy balance (TEB) urban parameterization scheme (part of the SURFEX land surface modeling system) was subjected to a sensitivity and optimization/parameter estimation experiment at a suburban site in, tropical Singapore. The sensitivity analysis was carried out as a screening test to identify the most sensitive or influential parameters. Thereafter, an optimization/parameter estimation experiment was performed to calibrate the input parameter. The sensitivity experiment was based on the "improved Sobol's global variance decomposition method" . The analysis showed that parameters related to road, roof and soil moisture have significant influence on the performance of the model. The optimization/parameter estimation experiment was performed using the AMALGM (a multi-algorithm genetically adaptive multi-objective method) evolutionary algorithm. The experiment showed a remarkable improvement compared to the simulations using the default parameter set. The calibrated parameters from this optimization experiment can be used for further model

  18. Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

    2013-04-01

    Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

  19. Urban population genetics of slum-dwelling rats (Rattus norvegicus) in Salvador, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kajdacsi, Brittney; Costa, Federico; Hyseni, Chaz; Porter, Fleur; Brown, Julia; Rodrigues, Gorete; Farias, Helena; Reis, Mitermeyer G.; Childs, James E.; Ko, Albert I.; Caccone, Adalgisa

    2013-01-01

    Throughout the developing world, urban centers with sprawling slum settlements are rapidly expanding and invading previously forested ecosystems. Slum communities are characterized by untended refuse, open sewers, and overgrown vegetation, which promote rodent infestation. Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus), are reservoirs for epidemic transmission of many zoonotic pathogens of public health importance. Understanding the population ecology of R. norvegicus is essential to formulate effective rodent control strategies, as this knowledge aids estimation of the temporal stability and spatial connectivity of populations. We screened for genetic variation, characterized the population genetic structure, and evaluated the extent and patterns of gene flow in the urban landscape using 17 microsatellite loci in 146 rats from 9 sites in the city of Salvador, Brazil. These sites were divided between three neighborhoods within the city spaced an average of 2.7 km apart. Surprisingly, we detected very little relatedness among animals trapped at the same site and found high levels of genetic diversity, as well as structuring across small geographic distances. Most FST comparisons among sites were statistically significant, including sites Salvador, linked to the heterogeneous urban landscape. Future rodent control measures need to take into account the spatial and temporal linkage of rat populations in Salvador, as revealed by genetic data, to develop informed eradication strategies. PMID:24118116

  20. Estimates of the Legal Permanent Resident Population: 2009

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report presents estimates of the legal permanent resident (LPR) population living in the United States on January 1, 2009. The LPR population includes persons...

  1. Estimates of the Legal Permanent Resident Population: 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report presents estimates of the legal permanent resident (LPR) population living in the United States on January 1, 2011. The LPR population includes persons...

  2. Estimates of the Legal Permanent Resident Population: 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report presents estimates of the legal permanent resident (LPR) population living in the United States on January 1, 2012. The LPR population includes persons...

  3. Estimation of population dose from all sources in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusama, Tomoko; Nakagawa, Takeo; Kai, Michiaki; Yoshizawa, Yasuo

    1988-01-01

    The purposes of estimation of population doses are to understand the per-caput doses of the public member from each artificial radiation source and to determine the proportion contributed of the doses from each individual source to the total irradiated population. We divided the population doses into two categories: individual-related and source-related population doses. The individual-related population dose is estimated based on the maximum assumption for use in allocation of the dose limits for members of the public. The source-related population dose is estimated both to justify the sources and practices and to optimize radiation protection. The source-related population dose, therefore, should be estimated as realistically as possible. We investigated all sources that caused exposure to the population in Japan from the above points of view

  4. Estimating population age structure using otolith morphometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doering-Arjes, P.; Cardinale, M.; Mosegaard, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    known-age fish individuals. Here we used known-age Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from the Faroe Bank and Faroe Plateau stocks. Cod populations usually show quite large variation in growth rates and otolith shape. We showed that including otolith morphometrics into ageing processes has the potential...... populations. The intercalibration method was successful but generalization from one stock to another remains problematic. The development of an otolith growth model is needed for generalization if an operational method for different populations is required in the future....... to make ageing objective, accurate, and fast. Calibration analysis indicated that a known-age sample from the same population and environment is needed to obtain robust calibration; using a sample from a different stock more than doubles the error rate, even in the case of genetically highly related...

  5. Population and antenatal-based HIV prevalence estimates in a high contracepting female population in rural South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barnighausen Till

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To present and compare population-based and antenatal-care (ANC sentinel surveillance HIV prevalence estimates among women in a rural South African population where both provision of ANC services and family planning is prevalent and fertility is declining. With a need, in such settings, to understand how to appropriately adjust ANC sentinel surveillance estimates to represent HIV prevalence in general populations, and with evidence of possible biases inherent to both surveillance systems, we explore differences between the two systems. There is particular emphasis on unrepresentative selection of ANC clinics and unrepresentative testing in the population. Methods HIV sero-prevalence amongst blood samples collected from women consenting to test during the 2005 annual longitudinal population-based serological survey was compared to anonymous unlinked HIV sero-prevalence amongst women attending antenatal care (ANC first visits in six clinics (January to May 2005. Both surveillance systems were conducted as part of the Africa Centre Demographic Information System. Results Population-based HIV prevalence estimates for all women (25.2% and pregnant women (23.7% were significantly lower than that for ANC attendees (37.7%. A large proportion of women attending urban or peri-urban clinics would be predicted to be resident within rural areas. Although overall estimates remained significantly different, presenting and standardising estimates by age and location (clinic for ANC-based estimates and individual-residence for population-based estimates made some group-specific estimates from the two surveillance systems more predictive of one another. Conclusion It is likely that where ANC coverage and contraceptive use is widespread and fertility is low, population-based surveillance under-estimates HIV prevalence due to unrepresentative testing by age, residence and also probably by HIV status, and that ANC sentinel surveillance over-estimates

  6. The use of 65Zn for estimating populations of carnivores

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruuk, H.; Parrish, T.

    1980-01-01

    Carnivore populations are difficult to measure by conventional methods. We have developed a new method which involves catching one or more individuals from a population and injecting them with the isotope 65 Zn. The radio-isotope appears in the faeces and assuming that the proportion of labelled to unlabelled faeces will equal the proportion of labelled to unlabelled individuals it is possible to estimate the size of the population. We have shown that the method gives an accurate estimate for a population of captive badgers of known size and we have used it in the field to estimate the size of wild badger populations. (author)

  7. Estimating leaf area and leaf biomass of open-grown deciduous urban trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Nowak

    1996-01-01

    Logarithmic regression equations were developed to predict leaf area and leaf biomass for open-grown deciduous urban trees based on stem diameter and crown parameters. Equations based on crown parameters produced more reliable estimates. The equations can be used to help quantify forest structure and functions, particularly in urbanizing and urban/suburban areas.

  8. Intercomparison of iodine thyroid doses estimated for people living in urban and rural environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voigt, G.

    2000-01-01

    The radioecological model ECOSYS, developed in GSF-Institut fuer Strahlenschutz has been applied to calculate thyroid doses to the population due to I-131 exposures after the Chernobyl accident. The main contribution to the thyroid doses calculated is given by the consumption of milk and vegetables. Results are presented taking into account the different activity concentrations measured in milk of private family cows and mixed collective milk of a creamery in upper Bavaria, as well as different consumption behaviour of children and adults in rural and urban areas. Thyroid doses due to different milk consumption habits and a different milk origin in adults living in urban environments are estimated to be up to 12 times, in children up to 3 times lower than those estimated for rural environments. The dose contribution by vegetables, however, in any case exceeded the one by milk because of the high intake rates for the case investigated here. These values, however, may be overestimates for vegetables and have a very high uncertainty. For adults total thyroid dose by ingestion was higher in rural areas by a factor of 1.4, for children at the age of 10 years, total thyroid dose by ingestion was 1.5 times higher in urban environments for the conditions described here. (author)

  9. Nutrient load estimates for Manila Bay, Philippines using population data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sotto, Lara Patricia A; Beusen, Arthur H W; Villanoy, Cesar L.; Bouwman, Lex F.; Jacinto, Gil S.

    2015-01-01

    A major source of nutrient load to periodically hypoxic Manila Bay is the urban nutrient waste water flow from humans and industries to surface water. In Manila alone, the population density is as high as 19,137 people/km2. A model based on a global point source model by Morée et al. (2013) was used

  10. Conservation genetics of extremely isolated urban populations of the northern dusky salamander (Desmognathus fuscus in New York City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Munshi-South

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization is a major cause of amphibian decline. Stream-dwelling plethodontid salamanders are particularly susceptible to urbanization due to declining water quality and hydrological changes, but few studies have examined these taxa in cities. The northern dusky salamander (Desmognathus fuscus was once common in the New York City metropolitan area, but has substantially declined throughout the region in recent decades. We used five tetranucleotide microsatellite loci to examine population differentiation, genetic variation, and bottlenecks among five remnant urban populations of dusky salamanders in NYC. These genetic measures provide information on isolation, prevalence of inbreeding, long-term prospects for population persistence, and potential for evolutionary responses to future environmental change. All populations were genetically differentiated from each other, and the most isolated populations in Manhattan have maintained very little genetic variation (i.e. <20% heterozygosity. A majority of the populations also exhibited evidence of genetic bottlenecks. These findings contrast with published estimates of high genetic variation within and lack of structure between populations of other desmognathine salamanders sampled over similar or larger spatial scales. Declines in genetic variation likely resulted from population extirpations and the degradation of stream and terrestrial paths for dispersal in NYC. Loss of genetic variability in populations isolated by human development may be an underappreciated cause and/or consequence of the decline of this species in urbanized areas of the northeast USA.

  11. Estimating Aquatic Insect Populations. Introduction to Sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chihuahuan Desert Research Inst., Alpine, TX.

    This booklet introduces high school and junior high school students to the major groups of aquatic insects and to population sampling techniques. Chapter 1 consists of a short field guide which can be used to identify five separate orders of aquatic insects: odonata (dragonflies and damselflies); ephemeroptera (mayflies); diptera (true flies);…

  12. Microgeographic differentiation in thermal performance curves between rural and urban populations of an aquatic insect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tüzün, Nedim; Op de Beeck, Lin; Brans, Kristien I; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby

    2017-12-01

    The rapidly increasing rate of urbanization has a major impact on the ecology and evolution of species. While increased temperatures are a key aspect of urbanization ("urban heat islands"), we have very limited knowledge whether this generates differentiation in thermal responses between rural and urban populations. In a common garden experiment, we compared the thermal performance curves (TPCs) for growth rate and mortality in larvae of the damselfly Coenagrion puella from three urban and three rural populations. TPCs for growth rate shifted vertically, consistent with the faster-slower theoretical model whereby the cold-adapted rural larvae grew faster than the warm-adapted urban larvae across temperatures. In line with costs of rapid growth, rural larvae showed lower survival than urban larvae across temperatures. The relatively lower temperatures hence expected shorter growing seasons in rural populations compared to the populations in the urban heat islands likely impose stronger time constraints to reach a certain developmental stage before winter, thereby selecting for faster growth rates. In addition, higher predation rates at higher temperature may have contributed to the growth rate differences between urban and rural ponds. A faster-slower differentiation in TPCs may be a widespread pattern along the urbanization gradient. The observed microgeographic differentiation in TPCs supports the view that urbanization may drive life-history evolution. Moreover, because of the urban heat island effect, urban environments have the potential to aid in developing predictions on the impact of climate change on rural populations.

  13. The influence of population characteristics on variation in general practice based morbidity estimations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van den Dungen C

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background General practice based registration networks (GPRNs provide information on morbidity rates in the population. Morbidity rate estimates from different GPRNs, however, reveal considerable, unexplained differences. We studied the range and variation in morbidity estimates, as well as the extent to which the differences in morbidity rates between general practices and networks change if socio-demographic characteristics of the listed patient populations are taken into account. Methods The variation in incidence and prevalence rates of thirteen diseases among six Dutch GPRNs and the influence of age, gender, socio economic status (SES, urbanization level, and ethnicity are analyzed using multilevel logistic regression analysis. Results are expressed in median odds ratios (MOR. Results We observed large differences in morbidity rate estimates both on the level of general practices as on the level of networks. The differences in SES, urbanization level and ethnicity distribution among the networks' practice populations are substantial. The variation in morbidity rate estimates among networks did not decrease after adjusting for these socio-demographic characteristics. Conclusion Socio-demographic characteristics of populations do not explain the differences in morbidity estimations among GPRNs.

  14. A modified procedure for estimating the population mean in two ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A modified procedure for estimating the population mean in two-occasion successive samplings. Housila Prasad Singh, Suryal Kant Pal. Abstract. This paper addresses the problem of estimating the current population mean in two occasion successive sampling. Utilizing the readily available information on two auxiliary ...

  15. 78 FR 255 - Resumption of the Population Estimates Challenge Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-03

    ... commenter would like the Census Bureau to continue to leave open the option for a challenging county-level... Challenging Certain Population and Income Estimates'' to ``Procedure for Challenging Population Estimates'' to... governmental unit. In those instances where a non-functioning county-level government or statistical equivalent...

  16. Multi-population Genomic Relationships for Estimating Current Genetic Variances Within and Genetic Correlations Between Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wientjes, Yvonne C J; Bijma, Piter; Vandenplas, Jérémie; Calus, Mario P L

    2017-10-01

    Different methods are available to calculate multi-population genomic relationship matrices. Since those matrices differ in base population, it is anticipated that the method used to calculate genomic relationships affects the estimate of genetic variances, covariances, and correlations. The aim of this article is to define the multi-population genomic relationship matrix to estimate current genetic variances within and genetic correlations between populations. The genomic relationship matrix containing two populations consists of four blocks, one block for population 1, one block for population 2, and two blocks for relationships between the populations. It is known, based on literature, that by using current allele frequencies to calculate genomic relationships within a population, current genetic variances are estimated. In this article, we theoretically derived the properties of the genomic relationship matrix to estimate genetic correlations between populations and validated it using simulations. When the scaling factor of across-population genomic relationships is equal to the product of the square roots of the scaling factors for within-population genomic relationships, the genetic correlation is estimated unbiasedly even though estimated genetic variances do not necessarily refer to the current population. When this property is not met, the correlation based on estimated variances should be multiplied by a correction factor based on the scaling factors. In this study, we present a genomic relationship matrix which directly estimates current genetic variances as well as genetic correlations between populations. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

  17. A comparison of rural and urban rheumatoid arthritis populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, N; Steven, M

    2009-02-01

    There is evidence to suggest that remote populations have poorer clinical outcomes in certain disease processes such as asthma and cancer. This study looks to identify any disparities in the management of patients with rheumatoid arthritis in the context of rurality. A retrospective observational study was performed on all 1314 patients with a diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis who have been under the care of the principal rheumatologist at Raigmore Hospital, Inverness, between the years 1994 and 2004 inclusive. Rurality was defined according to the Scottish Household Survey. Populations were assessed in terms of age; sex; duration of diagnosis; number of years of Disease Modifying AntiRheumatic Drugs (DMARD) therapy, prednisolone use and the number of musculoskeletal practical interventions undertaken (eg joint aspiration or replacement). Two thirds of patients were considered rural dwellers. No significant difference was established between the populations with regards to management. DMARD therapy had been prescribed in 77% of rural patients vs 70% of their city counterparts for a mean 5.4 and 4.0 years respectively. The proportion of patients exposed to prednisolone therapy and who underwent musculoskeletal procedures were equivalent. Rural dwellers, with rheumatoid arthritis in the Highlands of Scotland, do not appear to be disadvantaged in regards to their disease management in comparison to the urban population.

  18. A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

  19. Comparison of methods for estimating carbon dioxide storage by Sacramento's urban forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elena Aguaron; E. Gregory McPherson

    2012-01-01

    Limited open-grown urban tree species biomass equations have necessitated use of forest-derived equations with diverse conclusions on the accuracy of these equations to estimate urban biomass and carbon storage. Our goal was to determine and explain variability among estimates of CO2 storage from four sets of allometric equations for the same...

  20. Transportation noise and exposed population of an urban area in the Republic of Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Joon Hee; Chang, Seo Il; Kim, Minho; Holt, James B; Seong, Jeong C

    2011-02-01

    Using noise prediction models, we explored the transportation noise levels of Youngdeungpo-gu, an urbanized area of Seoul Metropolitan City in the Republic of Korea. In addition, we estimated the population exposed to transportation noise levels and determined how many people are vulnerable to noise levels that would cause serious annoyance and sleep disturbance. Compared with the World Health Organization [WHO] recommended levels, the daytime and nighttime transportation noise levels were still high enough to have the two psychosocial effects on people when considering the recommended levels of the World Health Organization (WHO; 55 decibels [dB[A

  1. Increasing STEM Competence in Urban, High Poverty Elementary School Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sueanne McKinney

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Enhancing STEM competence (e.g., interests, knowledge, skills, and dispositions among urban, high poverty, elementary school populations in the United States (U.S. is and remains a growing national concern, especially since Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM competence is and will continue to be a necessary requisite for gainful employment in the future, according to workforce development experts. In an attempt to address this gap, many urban elementary schools have begun to offer STEM-related programs to increase STEM learning at an early age. STEM competence (interest, knowledge, skills, and dispositions, however, remains low. This paper results in a matrix used to analyze children's fictional literary selections and a model that argues that elementary teachers, as the first point of contact with young students, can affect STEM competence. By adopting a more culturally responsive pedagogy that attends to the 21st Century Learning Skills and the Next Generation Science Standards, teachers can choose literature that serves to excite and reinforce STEM learning.

  2. [Urbanization mechanisms in bird species: population systems transformations or adaptations at the individual level?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fridman, V S; Eremkin, G S; Zakharova-Kubareva, N Iu

    2008-01-01

    The present research deals with urbanization of wild bird and mammal species. Forms and mechanisms of population steadiness in the urban landscape have been examined. The urbanization process turned out to be a directed change of the population system forming de novo in the urbolandscape leading to a sustainable organization peculiar for the particular environment. The population organization of different types in urbolandscape is found to provide its stability under conditions of directed and fast changes accompanied with instability and heterogenous structure of habitats. It is shown that the same type of population organization meets the corresponding demands among different species settling in the urban environment. Its features are "openness" and "flowage" of the groups, far order of settlement levels and other units of population system, constant movements of the individuals between the groups as a respond to the signals of urboenvironment significant changes. The "urban" variant of the population system organization turns out to be opposite to that of the same species in the non-urban habitats. After formation of the urban types by the species and successful developing of the town, the urban population becomes separated from the maternal local population and begins to exist independently in the urban landscape. The variety of adaptation aberrations in ecology, behavior, and mode of life of urban birds is the population system stability function in the urban landscape and is not a results of individual selection. It is shown that the urbanization process of the species goes firstly on the population level being the system structure transformation developed by the species towards the most stable state in the town (city) territory. Only after the appearance of stable urban population, the urban individuals show the rapid growth of different changes in ecology, behavior, mode of life that was traditionally described by naturalists as species adaptation to the

  3. Multistate matrix population model to assess the contributions and impacts on population abundance of domestic cats in urban areas including owned cats, unowned cats, and cats in shelters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Jason B.

    2018-01-01

    Concerns over cat homelessness, over-taxed animal shelters, public health risks, and environmental impacts has raised attention on urban-cat populations. To truly understand cat population dynamics, the collective population of owned cats, unowned cats, and cats in the shelter system must be considered simultaneously because each subpopulation contributes differently to the overall population of cats in a community (e.g., differences in neuter rates, differences in impacts on wildlife) and cats move among categories through human interventions (e.g., adoption, abandonment). To assess this complex socio-ecological system, we developed a multistate matrix model of cats in urban areas that include owned cats, unowned cats (free-roaming and feral), and cats that move through the shelter system. Our model requires three inputs—location, number of human dwellings, and urban area—to provide testable predictions of cat abundance for any city in North America. Model-predicted population size of unowned cats in seven Canadian cities were not significantly different than published estimates (p = 0.23). Model-predicted proportions of sterile feral cats did not match observed sterile cat proportions for six USA cities (p = 0.001). Using a case study from Guelph, Ontario, Canada, we compared model-predicted to empirical estimates of cat abundance in each subpopulation and used perturbation analysis to calculate relative sensitivity of vital rates to cat abundance to demonstrate how management or mismanagement in one portion of the population could have repercussions across all portions of the network. Our study provides a general framework to consider cat population abundance in urban areas and, with refinement that includes city-specific parameter estimates and modeling, could provide a better understanding of population dynamics of cats in our communities. PMID:29489854

  4. Multistate matrix population model to assess the contributions and impacts on population abundance of domestic cats in urban areas including owned cats, unowned cats, and cats in shelters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flockhart, D T Tyler; Coe, Jason B

    2018-01-01

    Concerns over cat homelessness, over-taxed animal shelters, public health risks, and environmental impacts has raised attention on urban-cat populations. To truly understand cat population dynamics, the collective population of owned cats, unowned cats, and cats in the shelter system must be considered simultaneously because each subpopulation contributes differently to the overall population of cats in a community (e.g., differences in neuter rates, differences in impacts on wildlife) and cats move among categories through human interventions (e.g., adoption, abandonment). To assess this complex socio-ecological system, we developed a multistate matrix model of cats in urban areas that include owned cats, unowned cats (free-roaming and feral), and cats that move through the shelter system. Our model requires three inputs-location, number of human dwellings, and urban area-to provide testable predictions of cat abundance for any city in North America. Model-predicted population size of unowned cats in seven Canadian cities were not significantly different than published estimates (p = 0.23). Model-predicted proportions of sterile feral cats did not match observed sterile cat proportions for six USA cities (p = 0.001). Using a case study from Guelph, Ontario, Canada, we compared model-predicted to empirical estimates of cat abundance in each subpopulation and used perturbation analysis to calculate relative sensitivity of vital rates to cat abundance to demonstrate how management or mismanagement in one portion of the population could have repercussions across all portions of the network. Our study provides a general framework to consider cat population abundance in urban areas and, with refinement that includes city-specific parameter estimates and modeling, could provide a better understanding of population dynamics of cats in our communities.

  5. Population structure of fishes from an urban stream

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naiara Zanatta

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to identify the population structure of the ichthyofauna in an urban stream within an environmental protection area in southern Brazil. Quarterly samplings were conducted between October 2009 and August 2010. Poecilia reticulata was the most abundant species, followed by Hypostomus ancistroides and Rhamdia quelen. It was found a higher proportion of adults instead of juveniles from P. reticulata and R. quelen populations, while the opposite was recorded for H. ancistroides. Sex ratio of 1:1 was found for H. ancistroides, but differed significantly for P. reticulata and R. quelen. Females of P. reticulata and R. quelen reached higher length than males in the smaller and higher length-classes, while H. ancistroides females were only longer in initial length-classes. It was recorded higher occurrence of mature and maturing individuals. Mature individuals of H. ancistroides were sampled in October, and P. reticulata and R. quelen throughout the sampling period. Despite adverse environmental conditions, the occurrence of juveniles indicates reproductive activity for these species. Population structure studies in degraded systems are urgent, since life-history features of species may suffer changes due to anthropic impacts. Providing such information contributes to decision making and management of degraded systems.

  6. ResilSIM—A Decision Support Tool for Estimating Resilience of Urban Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Irwin

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Damages to urban systems as a result of water-related natural disasters have escalated in recent years. The observed trend is expected to increase in the future as the impacts of population growth, rapid urbanization and climate change persist. To alleviate the damages associated with these impacts, it is recommended to integrate disaster management methods into planning, design and operational policies under all levels of government. This manuscript proposes the concept of ResilSIM: A decision support tool that rapidly estimates the resilience (a modern disaster management measure that is dynamic in time and space of an urban system to the consequences of natural disasters. The web-based tool (with mobile access operates in near real-time. It is designed to assist decision makers in selecting the best options for integrating adaptive capacity into their communities to protect against the negative impacts of a hazard. ResilSIM is developed for application in Toronto and London, Ontario, Canada; however, it is only demonstrated for use in the city of London, which is susceptible to riverine flooding. It is observed how the incorporation of different combinations of adaptation options maintain or strengthen London’s basic structures and functions in the event of a flood.

  7. Intra-Urban Movement Flow Estimation Using Location Based Social Networking Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kheiri, A.; Karimipour, F.; Forghani, M.

    2015-12-01

    In recent years, there has been a rapid growth of location-based social networking services, such as Foursquare and Facebook, which have attracted an increasing number of users and greatly enriched their urban experience. Location-based social network data, as a new travel demand data source, seems to be an alternative or complement to survey data in the study of mobility behavior and activity analysis because of its relatively high access and low cost. In this paper, three OD estimation models have been utilized in order to investigate their relative performance when using Location-Based Social Networking (LBSN) data. For this, the Foursquare LBSN data was used to analyze the intra-urban movement behavioral patterns for the study area, Manhattan, the most densely populated of the five boroughs of New York city. The outputs of models are evaluated using real observations based on different criterions including distance distribution, destination travel constraints. The results demonstrate the promising potential of using LBSN data for urban travel demand analysis and monitoring.

  8. INTRA-URBAN MOVEMENT FLOW ESTIMATION USING LOCATION BASED SOCIAL NETWORKING DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kheiri

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, there has been a rapid growth of location-based social networking services, such as Foursquare and Facebook, which have attracted an increasing number of users and greatly enriched their urban experience. Location-based social network data, as a new travel demand data source, seems to be an alternative or complement to survey data in the study of mobility behavior and activity analysis because of its relatively high access and low cost. In this paper, three OD estimation models have been utilized in order to investigate their relative performance when using Location-Based Social Networking (LBSN data. For this, the Foursquare LBSN data was used to analyze the intra-urban movement behavioral patterns for the study area, Manhattan, the most densely populated of the five boroughs of New York city. The outputs of models are evaluated using real observations based on different criterions including distance distribution, destination travel constraints. The results demonstrate the promising potential of using LBSN data for urban travel demand analysis and monitoring.

  9. [Urban and rural population of the state of Sao Paulo: results of the census of 1980].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, P M

    1981-01-01

    The accelerated urban growth of Sao Paulo between 1940-70 has continued during the period 1970-80, according to the 1980 censes. During 1970-80 the urban population increased 55.47%, while the rural population decreased 18.67%, bringing the percentage of the urban population to 88.6% of the total population of the state. This phenomenon has been common to all the 11 administrative regions of the state. The highest percentage of the urban population in 1980 was in the region of Greater Sao Paulo, followed by Litoral and Vale do Paraiba. The largest increases in urban population were in the regions of Sorocaba, Campinas, and Vale do Paraiba, while the highest decreases in rural population were in the regions of Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Aracatuba, Presidente Prudente, and Marilia. The document presents detailed data for each of the 11 administrative regions of the state, and for each municipality within a region.

  10. Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Ping

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

  11. [Cities and oil. Historical and prospective aspects of the urban population of Venezuela].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papail, J; Picquet, M

    1989-01-01

    The authors present a historical overview of urbanization in Venezuela. The impact of the oil economy on population change and spatial distribution is emphasized. A typology of cities based on socioeconomic function and on a demographic classification of urban centers is devised. Future trends in urbanization are also considered. (SUMMARY IN ENG)

  12. Restoration of coral populations in light of genetic diversity estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, T. L.; Porto, I.; Zubillaga, A. L.

    2009-09-01

    Due to the importance of preserving the genetic integrity of populations, strategies to restore damaged coral reefs should attempt to retain the allelic diversity of the disturbed population; however, genetic diversity estimates are not available for most coral populations. To provide a generalized estimate of genetic diversity (in terms of allelic richness) of scleractinian coral populations, the literature was surveyed for studies describing the genetic structure of coral populations using microsatellites. The mean number of alleles per locus across 72 surveyed scleractinian coral populations was 8.27 (±0.75 SE). In addition, population genetic datasets from four species ( Acropora palmata, Montastraea cavernosa, Montastraea faveolata and Pocillopora damicornis) were analyzed to assess the minimum number of donor colonies required to retain specific proportions of the genetic diversity of the population. Rarefaction analysis of the population genetic datasets indicated that using 10 donor colonies randomly sampled from the original population would retain >50% of the allelic diversity, while 35 colonies would retain >90% of the original diversity. In general, scleractinian coral populations are genetically diverse and restoration methods utilizing few clonal genotypes to re-populate a reef will diminish the genetic integrity of the population. Coral restoration strategies using 10-35 randomly selected local donor colonies will retain at least 50-90% of the genetic diversity of the original population.

  13. Estimation of effective population size in continuously distributed populations: There goes the neighborhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. C. Neel; K. McKelvey; N. Ryman; M. W. Lloyd; R. Short Bull; F. W. Allendorf; M. K. Schwartz; R. S. Waples

    2013-01-01

    Use of genetic methods to estimate effective population size (Ne) is rapidly increasing, but all approaches make simplifying assumptions unlikely to be met in real populations. In particular, all assume a single, unstructured population, and none has been evaluated for use with continuously distributed species. We simulated continuous populations with local mating...

  14. Ever Enrolled Medicare Population Estimates from the MCBS..

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Findings reported in Ever Enrolled Medicare Population Estimates from the MCBS Access to Care (ATC) Files, published in Volume 4, Issue 2 of the Medicare and...

  15. Population Exposure Estimates in Proximity to Nuclear Power Plants, Locations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Population Exposure Estimates in Proximity to Nuclear Power Plants, Locations data set combines information from a global data set developed by Declan Butler of...

  16. POPULATION MOBILITY CHARACTERISTIC: NOTES FROM THE URBAN-URBAN INTERACTION IN SEMARANG METROPOLITAN REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARDHOTILLAH Santi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The rapid growth of cities is characterized by the "pressure" in the form of increasingly dense urban areas, slums, traffic congestion, unemployment in the cities, and the number of illegal housing in the suburbs. This issue demonstrates the need for a balance between urban and rural areas. The balance is obtained through the interaction, and the interaction there is a process of "transfer" in the form of the human population, natural resources, and other supporting components. This view of the phenomenon makes many researchers conducting various studies in the context of the interaction between rural and urban. Furthermore, the study of the interaction of cities such as Salatiga and Semarang are in fact joined in the same region, KSN Kedungsepur. Semarang and surrounding developments as Semarang Metropolitan Region (SMR are the main attraction for the people who are around Semarang that caused an increase in the spatial interactions between Semarang and surrounding areas. From some areas belonging to KSN Kedungsepur, there are only two areas with the status of the city of Semarang city as a centre of KSN and Salatiga. This becomes interesting, unique conditions for studying the phenomenon under study is the interaction of the cities. The method used in this research was a quantitative method with descriptive analysis. Data was collected through a questionnaire survey technique primary by taking a random sample of migrants from Salatiga City and studied at the city of Semarang. The results of the study there were four mobility characteristics formed between Salatiga and Semarang, namely, commuting-boarding, boarding-commuting, boarding and boarding-permanent.

  17. Prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and its associated factors among the urban elderly population in Hyderabad metropolitan city, South India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suryanarayana, Palla; Arlappa, Nimmathota; Sai Santhosh, Vadakattu; Balakrishna, Nagalla; Lakshmi Rajkumar, Pondey; Prasad, Undrajavarapu; Raju, Banavath Bhoja; Shivakeseva, Kommula; Divya Shoshanni, Kondru; Seshacharyulu, Madabushi; Geddam, Jagjeevan Babu; Prasanthi, Prabhakaran Sobhana; Ananthan, Rajendran

    2018-03-01

    Deficiency of vitamin D has been associated with various health conditions. However, vitamin D deficiency (VDD) and factors associated with VDD are not well studied, especially among the urban elderly population of India. To assess the prevalence of VDD and its associated factors among the urban free-living elderly population in Hyderabad. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 298 urban elderly (≥60 years) by adapting a random sampling procedure. Demographic particulars were collected. Blood pressure and anthropometric measurements were recorded using standard equipment. Fasting glucose, lipid profile and 25-hydroxy vitamin D [25(OH) D] were estimated in plasma samples. The mean ± SE plasma vitamin D and the prevalence of VDD among the urban elderly population were 19.3 ± 0.54 (ng/ml) and 56.3%, respectively. The prevalence of VDD was significantly associated with education, high body mass index (BMI), hypertension (HT) and metabolic syndrome (MS). Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed HT as a significant predictor of vitamin D deficiency and the risk of VDD was double among the elderly with hypertension. The prevalence of VDD was high among the urban elderly population in the south Indian city of Hyderabad. High BMI, MS, HT and education are significant associated factors of VDD.

  18. Poverty, race, and CKD in a racially and socioeconomically diverse urban population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crews, Deidra C; Charles, Raquel F; Evans, Michele K; Zonderman, Alan B; Powe, Neil R

    2010-06-01

    Low socioeconomic status (SES) and African American race are both independently associated with end-stage renal disease and progressive chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, despite their frequent co-occurrence, the effect of low SES independent of race has not been well studied in CKD. Cross-sectional study. 2,375 community-dwelling adults aged 30-64 years residing within 12 neighborhoods selected for both socioeconomic and racial diversity in Baltimore City, MD. Low SES (self-reported household income or =125% of guideline); white and African American race. CKD defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate poverty and CKD, stratified by race. Of 2,375 participants, 955 were white (347 low SES and 608 higher SES) and 1,420 were African American (713 low SES and 707 higher SES). 146 (6.2%) participants had CKD. Overall, race was not associated with CKD (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.57-1.96); however, African Americans had a much greater odds of advanced CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate urban populations. Low SES has a profound relationship with CKD in African Americans, but not whites, in an urban population of adults, and its role in the racial disparities seen in CKD is worthy of further investigation. Copyright 2010 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. SECPOP90: Sector population, land fraction, and economic estimation program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Humphreys, S.L.; Rollstin, J.A.; Ridgely, J.N.

    1997-09-01

    In 1973 Mr. W. Athey of the Environmental Protection Agency wrote a computer program called SECPOP which calculated population estimates. Since that time, two things have changed which suggested the need for updating the original program - more recent population censuses and the widespread use of personal computers (PCs). The revised computer program uses the 1990 and 1992 Population Census information and runs on current PCs as {open_quotes}SECPOP90.{close_quotes} SECPOP90 consists of two parts: site and regional. The site provides population and economic data estimates for any location within the continental United States. Siting analysis is relatively fast running. The regional portion assesses site availability for different siting policy decisions; i.e., the impact of available sites given specific population density criteria within the continental United States. Regional analysis is slow. This report compares the SECPOP90 population estimates and the nuclear power reactor licensee-provided information. Although the source, and therefore the accuracy, of the licensee information is unknown, this comparison suggests SECPOP90 makes reasonable estimates. Given the total uncertainty in any current calculation of severe accidents, including the potential offsite consequences, the uncertainty within SECPOP90 population estimates is expected to be insignificant. 12 refs., 55 figs., 7 tabs.

  20. SECPOP90: Sector population, land fraction, and economic estimation program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humphreys, S.L.; Rollstin, J.A.; Ridgely, J.N.

    1997-09-01

    In 1973 Mr. W. Athey of the Environmental Protection Agency wrote a computer program called SECPOP which calculated population estimates. Since that time, two things have changed which suggested the need for updating the original program - more recent population censuses and the widespread use of personal computers (PCs). The revised computer program uses the 1990 and 1992 Population Census information and runs on current PCs as open-quotes SECPOP90.close quotes SECPOP90 consists of two parts: site and regional. The site provides population and economic data estimates for any location within the continental United States. Siting analysis is relatively fast running. The regional portion assesses site availability for different siting policy decisions; i.e., the impact of available sites given specific population density criteria within the continental United States. Regional analysis is slow. This report compares the SECPOP90 population estimates and the nuclear power reactor licensee-provided information. Although the source, and therefore the accuracy, of the licensee information is unknown, this comparison suggests SECPOP90 makes reasonable estimates. Given the total uncertainty in any current calculation of severe accidents, including the potential offsite consequences, the uncertainty within SECPOP90 population estimates is expected to be insignificant. 12 refs., 55 figs., 7 tabs

  1. Urban park characteristics, genetic variation, and historical demography of white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus populations in New York City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Munshi-South

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Severe fragmentation is a typical fate of native remnant habitats in cities, and urban wildlife with limited dispersal ability are predicted to lose genetic variation in isolated urban patches. However, little information exists on the characteristics of urban green spaces required to conserve genetic variation. In this study, we examine whether isolation in New York City (NYC parks results in genetic bottlenecks in white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus, and test the hypotheses that park size and time since isolation are associated with genetic variability using nonlinear regression and information-theoretic model selection. White-footed mice have previously been documented to exhibit male-biased dispersal, which may create disparities in genetic variation between males and females in urban parks. We use genotypes of 18 neutral microsatellite data and four different statistical tests to assess this prediction. Given that sex-biased dispersal may create disparities between population genetic patterns inferred from bi- vs. uni-parentally inherited markers, we also sequenced a 324 bp segment of the mitochondrial D-loop for independent inferences of historical demography in urban P. leucopus. We report that isolation in urban parks does not necessarily result in genetic bottlenecks; only three out of 14 populations in NYC parks exhibited a signature of a recent bottleneck at 18 neutral microsatellite loci. Mouse populations in larger urban parks, or parks that have been isolated for shorter periods of time, also do not generally contain greater genetic variation than populations in smaller parks. These results suggest that even small networks of green spaces may be sufficient to maintain the evolutionary potential of native species with certain characteristics. We also found that isolation in urban parks results in weak to nonexistent sex-biased dispersal in a species known to exhibit male-biased dispersal in less fragmented environments. In

  2. Estimation of the lion ( Panthera leo ) population in the southwestern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A previous estimate of the lion (Panthera leo) population in the southwestern Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park (KTP) was made over 20 years ago. This together with increased fears regarding the viability of the population as a result of recent killings of roaming animals, an observed increase in non-violent mortalities during ...

  3. Intimate Partner Violence among General and Urban Poor Populations in Kathmandu, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oshiro, Azusa; Poudyal, Amod K.; Poudel, Krishna C.; Jimba, Masamine; Hokama, Tomiko

    2011-01-01

    Comparative studies are lacking on intimate partner violence (IPV) between urban poor and general populations. The objective of this study is to identify the prevalence and risk factors of physical IPV among the general and poor populations in urban Nepal. A cross-sectional study was conducted by structured questionnaire interview. Participants…

  4. Estimation of the Radon-induced Dose for Russia's Population: Methods and Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marenny, A.M.; Savkin, M.N.; Shinkarev, S.M.

    2000-01-01

    A model is proposed for inferring the radon-induced annual average collective and personal doses, as well as the dose distribution of the population, all over Russia from selective radon monitoring in some regions of Russia. The model assumptions and the selective radon monitoring results that underlie the numerical estimates obtained for different population groups are presented. The current estimate of the collective radon-induced dose received by the population of Russia (148,100,000 as of 1996) is about 130,000 man Sv, of which 55,000 man Sv is for the rural population (27% of the total population) and 75,000 man Sv for the urban population (73% of the total). The average radon-induced personal dose in Russia is estimated to be about 0.87 mSv. About 1,000,000 people receive annual doses above 10 mSv, including some 200,000 people who receive doses above 20 mSv annually. The ways of making the current estimates more accurate are outlined. (author)

  5. Urban habitat fragmentation and genetic population structure of bobcats in coastal southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruell, E.W.; Riley, S.P.D.; Douglas, M.R.; Antolin, M.F.; Pollinger, J.R.; Tracey, J.A.; Lyren, L.M.; Boydston, E.E.; Fisher, R.N.; Crooks, K.R.

    2012-01-01

    Although habitat fragmentation is recognized as a primary threat to biodiversity, the effects of urban development on genetic population structure vary among species and landscapes and are not yet well understood. Here we use non-invasive genetic sampling to compare the effects of fragmentation by major roads and urban development on levels of dispersal, genetic diversity, and relatedness between paired bobcat populations in replicate landscapes in coastal southern California. We hypothesized that bobcat populations in sites surrounded by urbanization would experience reduced functional connectivity relative to less isolated nearby populations. Our results show that bobcat genetic population structure is affected by roads and development but not always as predicted by the degree that these landscape features surround fragments. Instead, we suggest that urban development may affect functional connectivity between bobcat populations more by limiting the number and genetic diversity of source populations of migrants than by creating impermeable barriers to dispersal.

  6. [Population in the northern border area. Urban dynamism and binational interrelation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham Chande, R

    1988-01-01

    The 3300 km border between Mexico and the US constitutes the geopolitical separation between an underdeveloped country on the 1 hand and 1 of the most technologically and economically powerful countries in the world on the other. The border region is characterized by the contrasts on either side of the border and by the strong interrelation between both sides. Vast streams of persons, merchandise, money, services, communications, and cultural influences flow from 1 side to the other. The border region as a seat of population has a recent history. The border was defined in near current form only in the mid-19th century, when the expansionist tendencies of the US encountered a vast area of very sparse population. In 1900, the principal localities of the border zone had only about 39,000 inhabitants, of whom fewer than 5000 lived west of Ciudad Juarez. Between 1910-20, the population of the border region increased from 53,000 to 96,000 as a result of migrants fleeing the ravages of the revolution. The population of the border region was estimated at 3.826 million in 1988, resulting from rates of growth above Mexico's national average. Settlement in the area has depended on events and conditions in Mexico and on such US occurrences as Prohibition, the Great Depression, the 2nd World War, the Bracero program, and the Program of Border Industrialization. 82% of the border population lives in urban zones, partly because of lack of water. 80% of the urban population is concentrated in 6 cities, Juarez, Tijuana, Mexicali, Nuevo Laredo, Reynosa, and Matamoros. Much of the population of the 6 cities is composed of persons born elsewhere. The border area also has a large floating population of undocumented migrants in transit to or from the US. The high rates of urbanization and of binational interaction are reflected in demographic dynamics. In 1979, 71% of women in union in the border area vs 54% in the rest of Mexico had used contraception, and the infant mortality rate was

  7. Campylobacter jejuni colonization and population structure in urban populations of ducks and starlings in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, Vathsala; Stevenson, Mark; Marshall, Jonathan; Fearnhead, Paul; Holland, Barbara R; Hotter, Grant; French, Nigel P

    2013-08-01

    A repeated cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the prevalence of Campylobacter spp. and the population structure of C. jejuni in European starlings and ducks cohabiting multiple public access sites in an urban area of New Zealand. The country's geographical isolation and relatively recent history of introduction of wild bird species, including the European starling and mallard duck, create an ideal setting to explore the impact of geographical separation on the population biology of C. jejuni, as well as potential public health implications. A total of 716 starling and 720 duck fecal samples were collected and screened for C. jejuni over a 12 month period. This study combined molecular genotyping, population genetics and epidemiological modeling and revealed: (i) higher Campylobacter spp. isolation in starlings (46%) compared with ducks (30%), but similar isolation of C. jejuni in ducks (23%) and starlings (21%), (ii) significant associations between the isolation of Campylobacter spp. and host species, sampling location and time of year using logistic regression, (iii) evidence of population differentiation, as indicated by FST , and host-genotype association with clonal complexes CC ST-177 and CC ST-682 associated with starlings, and clonal complexes CC ST-1034, CC ST-692, and CC ST-1332 associated with ducks, and (iv) greater genetic diversity and genotype richness in ducks compared with starlings. These findings provide evidence that host-associated genotypes, such as the starling-associated ST-177 and ST-682, represent lineages that were introduced with the host species in the 19th century. The isolation of sequence types associated with human disease in New Zealand indicate that wild ducks and starlings need to be considered as a potential public health risk, particularly in urban areas. © 2013 The Authors. Microbiology Open published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links (poster)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.

    2015-01-01

    In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Urban areas often lack rainfall information. Hence, new rainfall measurement techniques are important. E.g., the number of

  9. A citizen science based survey method for estimating the density of urban carnivores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Rowenna; Charman, Naomi; Karlsson, Heidi; Yarnell, Richard W.; Mill, Aileen C.; Smith, Graham C.; Tolhurst, Bryony A.

    2018-01-01

    Globally there are many examples of synanthropic carnivores exploiting growth in urbanisation. As carnivores can come into conflict with humans and are potential vectors of zoonotic disease, assessing densities in suburban areas and identifying factors that influence them are necessary to aid management and mitigation. However, fragmented, privately owned land restricts the use of conventional carnivore surveying techniques in these areas, requiring development of novel methods. We present a method that combines questionnaire distribution to residents with field surveys and GIS, to determine relative density of two urban carnivores in England, Great Britain. We determined the density of: red fox (Vulpes vulpes) social groups in 14, approximately 1km2 suburban areas in 8 different towns and cities; and Eurasian badger (Meles meles) social groups in three suburban areas of one city. Average relative fox group density (FGD) was 3.72 km-2, which was double the estimates for cities with resident foxes in the 1980’s. Density was comparable to an alternative estimate derived from trapping and GPS-tracking, indicating the validity of the method. However, FGD did not correlate with a national dataset based on fox sightings, indicating unreliability of the national data to determine actual densities or to extrapolate a national population estimate. Using species-specific clustering units that reflect social organisation, the method was additionally applied to suburban badgers to derive relative badger group density (BGD) for one city (Brighton, 2.41 km-2). We demonstrate that citizen science approaches can effectively obtain data to assess suburban carnivore density, however publicly derived national data sets need to be locally validated before extrapolations can be undertaken. The method we present for assessing densities of foxes and badgers in British towns and cities is also adaptable to other urban carnivores elsewhere. However this transferability is contingent on

  10. More than 500 million Chinese urban residents (14% of the global urban population) are imperiled by fine particulate hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Han, Lijian; Zhang, Robin Q

    2016-11-01

    China's urbanization and the subsequent public vulnerability to degenerated environment is important to global public health. Among the environmental problems, fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) pollution has become a serious hazard in rapidly urbanizing China. However, quantitative information remains inadequate. We thus collected PM 2.5 concentrations and population census records, to illustrate the spatial patterns and changes in the PM 2.5 hazard levels in China, and to quantify public vulnerability to the hazard during 2000-2010, following the air quality standards of World Health Organization. We found that 28% (2.72 million km 2 ) of China's territory, including 78% of cities (154 cities) with a population of >1 million, was exposed to PM 2.5 hazard in 2010; a 15% increase (1.47 million km 2 ) from 2000 to 2010. The hazards potentially impacted the health of 72% of the total population (942 million) in 2010, including 70% of the young (206 million) and 76% of the old (71 million). This was a significant increase from the 42% of total the population (279 million) exposed in 2000. Of the total urban residents, 76% (501 million) were affected in 2010. Along with PM 2.5 concentration increase, massive number of rural to urban migration also contributed greatly to China's urban public health vulnerability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. 1 POPULATION PRESSURE AND HEALTH RISKS IN URBAN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    on urban market environment (and in this case, Bodija Market, Ibadan). Particular ... markets in most LDCs have become huge waste production centers. ... market. With about 90 percent of food purchases of urban residents being sourced from .... up a child's excrement in between attending to customers are created. Often ...

  12. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  13. Population estimates of extended family structure and size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garceau, Anne; Wideroff, Louise; McNeel, Timothy; Dunn, Marsha; Graubard, Barry I

    2008-01-01

    Population-based estimates of biological family size can be useful for planning genetic studies, assessing how distributions of relatives affect disease associations with family history and estimating prevalence of potential family support. Mean family size per person is estimated from a population-based telephone survey (n = 1,019). After multivariate adjustment for demographic variables, older and non-White respondents reported greater mean numbers of total, first- and second-degree relatives. Females reported more total and first-degree relatives, while less educated respondents reported more second-degree relatives. Demographic differences in family size have implications for genetic research. Therefore, periodic collection of family structure data in representative populations would be useful. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  14. Elevated incidence rates of diabetes in Peru: report from PERUDIAB, a national urban population-based longitudinal study

    OpenAIRE

    Seclen, Segundo Nicolas; Rosas, Moises Ernesto; Arias, Arturo Jaime; Medina, Cecilia Alexandra

    2017-01-01

    Objective A recent report from a non-nationally representative, geographically diverse sample in four separate communities in Peru suggests an unusually high diabetes incidence. We aimed to estimate the national diabetes incidence rate using PERUDIAB, a probabilistic, national urban population-based longitudinal study. Research design and methods 662 subjects without diabetes, selected by multistage, cluster, random sampling of households, representing the 24 administrative and the 3 (coast, ...

  15. Is Demography Destiny? Urban Population Change and Economic Vitality of Future Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Poot

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The growth of cities has attracted considerable scholarly attention during the last decade as it is becoming clear that powerful agglomeration forces are reinforcing the role of cities as the engines of economic growth. Close to 4 billion people live in cities, about 55 per cent of the world's population. While population growth rates are declining and the world's population is likely to level off from the middle of the 21st century, probably ending up around 10 billion, further urbanization is expected to continue. Another 3 billion people will become urban citizens this century. At the same time no corner of the world will be sheltered from sweeping demographic changes due to population ageing and increasing migration. Such changes will be amplified in cities. In this paper we combine UN population projections and migration data with our own assumptions to derive projections of age composition and birthplace composition of urban populations by continent. We also briefly address the consequences of these demographic trends for future urban economic vitality. Particular attention is paid to the impacts of demographic changes on urban creativity and innovation. We conclude that, with the right policies in place, such demographic changes enhance rather than impede the future prosperity of the urban world. KEYWORDS: World population projections, urbanization, ageing, migration, ethnic diversity

  16. Estimation of the effective population size (Ne) and its application in the management of small populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jimenez Mena, Belen

    2016-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is an important concept to understand the evolution of a population. In conservation, Ne is used to assess the threat status of a population, evaluate its genetic viability in the future and set conservation priorities. An accurate estimation of Ne is thus essential....... The main objective of this thesis was to better understand how the estimation of Ne using molecular markers can be improved for use in conservation genetics. As a first step, we undertook a simulation study where three different methods to estimate Ne were investigated. We explored how well these three...... methods performed under different scenarios. This study showed that all three methods performed better when the number of unlinked loci used to make the estimation increased and the minimum number of loci need for an accurate estimation of Ne was 100 SNPs. A general assumption in the estimation of Ne...

  17. Dutch population specific sex estimation formulae using the proximal femur.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colman, K L; Janssen, M C L; Stull, K E; van Rijn, R R; Oostra, R J; de Boer, H H; van der Merwe, A E

    2018-05-01

    Sex estimation techniques are frequently applied in forensic anthropological analyses of unidentified human skeletal remains. While morphological sex estimation methods are able to endure population differences, the classification accuracy of metric sex estimation methods are population-specific. No metric sex estimation method currently exists for the Dutch population. The purpose of this study is to create Dutch population specific sex estimation formulae by means of osteometric analyses of the proximal femur. Since the Netherlands lacks a representative contemporary skeletal reference population, 2D plane reconstructions, derived from clinical computed tomography (CT) data, were used as an alternative source for a representative reference sample. The first part of this study assesses the intra- and inter-observer error, or reliability, of twelve measurements of the proximal femur. The technical error of measurement (TEM) and relative TEM (%TEM) were calculated using 26 dry adult femora. In addition, the agreement, or accuracy, between the dry bone and CT-based measurements was determined by percent agreement. Only reliable and accurate measurements were retained for the logistic regression sex estimation formulae; a training set (n=86) was used to create the models while an independent testing set (n=28) was used to validate the models. Due to high levels of multicollinearity, only single variable models were created. Cross-validated classification accuracies ranged from 86% to 92%. The high cross-validated classification accuracies indicate that the developed formulae can contribute to the biological profile and specifically in sex estimation of unidentified human skeletal remains in the Netherlands. Furthermore, the results indicate that clinical CT data can be a valuable alternative source of data when representative skeletal collections are unavailable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Population Estimation with Mark and Recapture Method Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limohpasmanee, W.; Kaewchoung, W.

    1998-01-01

    Population estimation is the important information which required for the insect control planning especially the controlling with SIT. Moreover, It can be used to evaluate the efficiency of controlling method. Due to the complexity of calculation, the population estimation with mark and recapture methods were not used widely. So that, this program is developed with Qbasic on the purpose to make it accuracy and easier. The program evaluation consists with 6 methods; follow Seber's, Jolly-seber's, Jackson's Ito's, Hamada's and Yamamura's methods. The results are compared with the original methods, found that they are accuracy and more easier to applied

  19. Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2014-01-01

    with simple stock dynamics, to estimate simultaneously how size distributions and spatial distributions develop in time. We demonstrate the method for a cod population sampled by trawl surveys. Particular attention is paid to correlation between size classes within each trawl haul due to clustering...... of individuals with similar size. The model estimates growth, mortality and reproduction, after which any aspect of size-structure, spatio-temporal population dynamics, as well as the sampling process can be probed. This is illustrated by two applications: 1) tracking the spatial movements of a single cohort...

  20. Methods of estimating population exposures from Plowshare applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaye, S V; Rohwer, P S [Health Physics Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    1969-07-01

    When estimating doses to populations it is necessary to divide the total population into groups that have parameters of similar type and magnitude in order to identify critical population groups. Age groups constitute the most basic and generally useful way of dividing the total population for estimating dose. Models for estimating dose, particularly the internal dose from inhalation and ingestion of radioactivity, should be written as a function of age. The importance of considering age-dependency is emphasized by the fact that some of the internal dose parameters change by much as a factor of ten for some radionuclides when comparing a one year old with an adult. A computer code called INREM has been written which can consider all internal dose parameters as a function of age. The major imitation in using this computer code for all radionuclides is the paucity of age-dependent input data for many radionuclides. Tritium, iodine, cesium, and strontium have been studied in detail with INREM and the results and interpretations are discussed. Another code, EXREM, computes the external dose rates and cumulative doses from both beta particles and gamma photons from submersion in a radioactive cloud, submersion in contaminated water and exposure above a contaminated land surface. This code can consider up to 25 Plowshare detonations and a variety of combinations for calculating doses and dose rates in relation to a detonation schedule. The importance of using both INREM and EXREM to estimate the total dose to a population group is stressed. (author)

  1. Methods of estimating population exposures from Plowshare applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaye, S.V.; Rohwer, P.S.

    1969-01-01

    When estimating doses to populations it is necessary to divide the total population into groups that have parameters of similar type and magnitude in order to identify critical population groups. Age groups constitute the most basic and generally useful way of dividing the total population for estimating dose. Models for estimating dose, particularly the internal dose from inhalation and ingestion of radioactivity, should be written as a function of age. The importance of considering age-dependency is emphasized by the fact that some of the internal dose parameters change by much as a factor of ten for some radionuclides when comparing a one year old with an adult. A computer code called INREM has been written which can consider all internal dose parameters as a function of age. The major imitation in using this computer code for all radionuclides is the paucity of age-dependent input data for many radionuclides. Tritium, iodine, cesium, and strontium have been studied in detail with INREM and the results and interpretations are discussed. Another code, EXREM, computes the external dose rates and cumulative doses from both beta particles and gamma photons from submersion in a radioactive cloud, submersion in contaminated water and exposure above a contaminated land surface. This code can consider up to 25 Plowshare detonations and a variety of combinations for calculating doses and dose rates in relation to a detonation schedule. The importance of using both INREM and EXREM to estimate the total dose to a population group is stressed. (author)

  2. Trends in mortality and biological stress in a medieval polish urban population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betsinger, Tracy K; DeWitte, Sharon

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization in pre-modern populations may have had a variety of consequences related to population crowding. However, research on the effects of urbanization have provided inconsistent results regarding the biological impact of this transition on human populations. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that urbanization caused an increase in overall biological stress in a medieval (10th-13th centuries AD) Polish population. A human skeletal sample (n=164) was examined for the presence of porotic hyperostosis, cribra orbitalia, linear enamel hypoplasia, periosteal reaction, and specific infectious diseases. Prevalence rates were compared among three temporal samples: initial urbanization, early urbanization, and later urbanization. Results indicate no significant trends for any of the pathological conditions. Cox proportional hazards analyses, however, revealed a significant increase in the risk of death over time, which supports the hypothesis. These results reflect the necessity of using multiple analyses to address bioarchaeological questions. The lack of significant results from skeletal indicators may be due to an earlier urbanization trend in the population. This study illustrates that the association of urbanization with elevated biological stress is complicated and dependent on various factors, including culture and time period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Validity and feasibility of a satellite imagery-based method for rapid estimation of displaced populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checchi, Francesco; Stewart, Barclay T; Palmer, Jennifer J; Grundy, Chris

    2013-01-23

    Estimating the size of forcibly displaced populations is key to documenting their plight and allocating sufficient resources to their assistance, but is often not done, particularly during the acute phase of displacement, due to methodological challenges and inaccessibility. In this study, we explored the potential use of very high resolution satellite imagery to remotely estimate forcibly displaced populations. Our method consisted of multiplying (i) manual counts of assumed residential structures on a satellite image and (ii) estimates of the mean number of people per structure (structure occupancy) obtained from publicly available reports. We computed population estimates for 11 sites in Bangladesh, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya and Mozambique (six refugee camps, three internally displaced persons' camps and two urban neighbourhoods with a mixture of residents and displaced) ranging in population from 1,969 to 90,547, and compared these to "gold standard" reference population figures from census or other robust methods. Structure counts by independent analysts were reasonably consistent. Between one and 11 occupancy reports were available per site and most of these reported people per household rather than per structure. The imagery-based method had a precision relative to reference population figures of layout. For each site, estimates were produced in 2-5 working person-days. In settings with clearly distinguishable individual structures, the remote, imagery-based method had reasonable accuracy for the purposes of rapid estimation, was simple and quick to implement, and would likely perform better in more current application. However, it may have insurmountable limitations in settings featuring connected buildings or shelters, a complex pattern of roofs and multi-level buildings. Based on these results, we discuss possible ways forward for the method's development.

  4. Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Ping

    2005-01-01

    from various Danish longitudinal registers. Data were analysed with conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: This study confirms that people living in more urbanized areas are at a higher risk of suicide than their counterparts in less urbanized areas. However, this excess risk is largely eliminated...... when adjusted for personal marital, income, and ethnic differences; it is even reversed when further adjusted for psychiatric status. Moreover, the impact of urbanicity on suicide risk differs significantly by sex and across age. Urban living reduces suicide risk significantly among men, especially......BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

  5. [Trends in smoking in an urban population over recent decades].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villalbí, Joan R; Bartoll, Xavier; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Borrell, Carme

    2016-05-06

    The objective of this study is to describe the distribution of smoking in the population and to assess changes and trends over recent decades. Cross sectional study in a sample of the non-institutionalized resident population (n=3,509) in Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) using data from persons over 14 years of age from the health survey of 2011, and assessing trends for 1983-2011 using previous surveys. Dependent variables are having ever been a smoker, having quit, being a current smoker, and smoking daily. Independent variables include sex, age, and time. Prevalence and proportions are estimated, stratifying or adjusting for age. The prevalence of daily smokers is 18.8% in 2011: 22.2% for men and 15.9% for women. The age groups with higher smoking prevalence are 25-34 years for men and 15-24 for women. From 1983 to 2011 the reduction among men has been intense, and for women the prevalence has been decreasing since the survey of 2000. Among smokers, the proportion of both genders who do not smoke daily has increased. The smoking epidemic over the last years shows promising trends. The data do not lend support to the hardening hypothesis for current smokers. Smokers are a shrinking minority, although to improve public health it would be desirable to speed the process of change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  6. Population genetics, community of parasites, and resistance to rodenticides in an urban brown rat (Rattus norvegicus) population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desvars-Larrive, Amélie; Pascal, Michel; Gasqui, Patrick; Cosson, Jean-François; Benoît, Etienne; Lattard, Virginie; Crespin, Laurent; Lorvelec, Olivier; Pisanu, Benoît; Teynié, Alexandre; Vayssier-Taussat, Muriel; Bonnet, Sarah; Marianneau, Philippe; Lacôte, Sandra; Bourhy, Pascale; Berny, Philippe; Pavio, Nicole; Le Poder, Sophie; Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle; Jourdain, Elsa; Hammed, Abdessalem; Fourel, Isabelle; Chikh, Farid; Vourc'h, Gwenaël

    2017-01-01

    Brown rats are one of the most widespread urban species worldwide. Despite the nuisances they induce and their potential role as a zoonotic reservoir, knowledge on urban rat populations remains scarce. The main purpose of this study was to characterize an urban brown rat population from Chanteraines park (Hauts-de-Seine, France), with regards to haematology, population genetics, immunogenic diversity, resistance to anticoagulant rodenticides, and community of parasites. Haematological parameters were measured. Population genetics was investigated using 13 unlinked microsatellite loci. Immunogenic diversity was assessed for Mhc-Drb. Frequency of the Y139F mutation (conferring resistance to rodenticides) and two linked microsatellites were studied, concurrently with the presence of anticoagulant residues in the liver. Combination of microscopy and molecular methods were used to investigate the occurrence of 25 parasites. Statistical approaches were used to explore multiple parasite relationships and model parasite occurrence. Eighty-six rats were caught. The first haematological data for a wild urban R. norvegicus population was reported. Genetic results suggested high genetic diversity and connectivity between Chanteraines rats and surrounding population(s). We found a high prevalence (55.8%) of the mutation Y139F and presence of rodenticide residues in 47.7% of the sampled individuals. The parasite species richness was high (16). Seven potential zoonotic pathogens were identified, together with a surprisingly high diversity of Leptospira species (4). Chanteraines rat population is not closed, allowing gene flow and making eradication programs challenging, particularly because rodenticide resistance is highly prevalent. Parasitological results showed that co-infection is more a rule than an exception. Furthermore, the presence of several potential zoonotic pathogens, of which four Leptospira species, in this urban rat population raised its role in the maintenance

  7. Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pere P Simarro

    Full Text Available Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population.Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported.Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

  8. Estimating Effects of Species Interactions on Populations of Endangered Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Tobias; Bühler, Christoph; Amrhein, Valentin

    2016-04-01

    Global change causes community composition to change considerably through time, with ever-new combinations of interacting species. To study the consequences of newly established species interactions, one available source of data could be observational surveys from biodiversity monitoring. However, approaches using observational data would need to account for niche differences between species and for imperfect detection of individuals. To estimate population sizes of interacting species, we extended N-mixture models that were developed to estimate true population sizes in single species. Simulations revealed that our model is able to disentangle direct effects of dominant on subordinate species from indirect effects of dominant species on detection probability of subordinate species. For illustration, we applied our model to data from a Swiss amphibian monitoring program and showed that sizes of expanding water frog populations were negatively related to population sizes of endangered yellow-bellied toads and common midwife toads and partly of natterjack toads. Unlike other studies that analyzed presence and absence of species, our model suggests that the spread of water frogs in Central Europe is one of the reasons for the decline of endangered toad species. Thus, studying population impacts of dominant species on population sizes of endangered species using data from biodiversity monitoring programs should help to inform conservation policy and to decide whether competing species should be subject to population management.

  9. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  10. Dynamics of urban population growth in Nigeria: The role of repeated migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adepoju, A

    1976-02-01

    The paper examines the direct contribution of migration to the growth of the urban population both in terms of its mobility and stability components with special reference to Western Nigeria. The basis of the paper is a survey of urban migration conducted by the author in 1971-1972; the findings are supplemented where necessary by the 1952-1953 and 1963 census figures. Migration is a major factor in the growth of the urban population. The direct contribution by migrants to such growth can be traced to the following groups: the initial streams of migrants, the follow-up migrants and the potentially mobile migrants attracted from the migrants' communities of origin to the towns. Repeated migration by some migrants, particularly the young, the educated and the white collar-workers, are also major factors in the urban population growth. Such repeated migrations are predominantly urban to urban or turnover moves. The high mobility rate among a group of migrants tends to conceal the relative stability among the migrant population as a whole. Repeated migrants usually stay between 3 and 5 years at each destination, before moving on. A substantial proportion of migrants, mainly farmers, the less educated and the old, are relatively stable in the survey towns (Ife and Oshogho). The urban residence ration indices also indicate an increase in the rate of immigration, mainly of young persons, to the towns. The youthful age structure, the age selectivity in migration and the marital status of the young migrants tend to exacerbate the masculinity in the form of unbalanced sex ratio prevailing in most urban centers. The urban population is unlikely to be stable. The tendency for old migrants of rural origin to return to their villages at the end of their migration career and for contemporary migrants to consist predominantly of youths, will for the next generation or 2 lead to a young and unstable urban population.

  11. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  12. Estimating population size of Saddle-billed Storks Ephippiorhynchus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study was to estimate the population size within associated confidence limits using a modified mark–recapture field method. The vehicle survey, conducted shortly after rainfall in the area, did not produce results with known precision under these conditions. A repeat of this census in spring, after the peak ...

  13. Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Mark S.; MacKenzie, Darry I.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Moody, David W.

    2001-01-01

    Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.

  14. Estimating the size of the homeless population in Budapest, Hungary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    David, B; Snijders, TAB

    In this study we try to estimate the size of the homeless population in Budapest by using two - non-standard - sampling methods: snowball sampling and capture-recapture method. Using two methods and three different data sets we are able to compare the methods as well as the results, and we also

  15. Sampling strategies for estimating brook trout effective population size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew R. Whiteley; Jason A. Coombs; Mark Hudy; Zachary Robinson; Keith H. Nislow; Benjamin H. Letcher

    2012-01-01

    The influence of sampling strategy on estimates of effective population size (Ne) from single-sample genetic methods has not been rigorously examined, though these methods are increasingly used. For headwater salmonids, spatially close kin association among age-0 individuals suggests that sampling strategy (number of individuals and location from...

  16. Asian elephants in China: estimating population size and evaluating habitat suitability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Zhang

    Full Text Available We monitored the last remaining Asian elephant populations in China over the past decade. Using DNA tools and repeat genotyping, we estimated the population sizes from 654 dung samples collected from various areas. Combined with morphological individual identifications from over 6,300 elephant photographs taken in the wild, we estimated that the total Asian elephant population size in China is between 221 and 245. Population genetic structure and diversity were examined using a 556-bp fragment of mitochondrial DNA, and 24 unique haplotypes were detected from DNA analysis of 178 individuals. A phylogenetic analysis revealed two highly divergent clades of Asian elephants, α and β, present in Chinese populations. Four populations (Mengla, Shangyong, Mengyang, and Pu'Er carried mtDNA from the α clade, and only one population (Nangunhe carried mtDNA belonging to the β clade. Moreover, high genetic divergence was observed between the Nangunhe population and the other four populations; however, genetic diversity among the five populations was low, possibly due to limited gene flow because of habitat fragmentation. The expansion of rubber plantations, crop cultivation, and villages along rivers and roads had caused extensive degradation of natural forest in these areas. This had resulted in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and had formed artificial barriers that inhibited elephant migration. Using Geographic Information System, Global Positioning System, and Remote Sensing technology, we found that the area occupied by rubber plantations, tea farms, and urban settlements had dramatically increased over the past 40 years, resulting in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and forming artificial barriers that inhibit elephant migration. The restoration of ecological corridors to facilitate gene exchange among isolated elephant populations and the establishment of cross-boundary protected areas between China and Laos to secure

  17. Organochlorines in urban soils from Central India: probabilistic health hazard and risk implications to human population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Bhupander; Mishra, Meenu; Verma, V K; Rai, Premanjali; Kumar, Sanjay

    2018-04-21

    This study presents distribution of organochlorines (OCs) including HCH, DDT and PCBs in urban soils, and their environmental and human health risk. Forty-eight soil samples were extracted using ultrasonication, cleaned with modified silica gel chromatography and analyzed by GC-ECD. The observed concentrations of ∑HCH, ∑DDT and ∑PCBs in soils ranged between < 0.01-2.54, 1.30-27.41 and < 0.01-62.8 µg kg -1 , respectively, which were lower than the recommended soil quality guidelines. Human health risk was estimated following recommended guidelines. Lifetime average daily dose (LADD), non-cancer risk or hazard quotient (HQ) and incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) for humans due to individual and total OCs were estimated and presented. Estimated LADD were lower than acceptable daily intake and reference dose. Human health risk estimates were lower than safe limit of non-cancer risk (HQ < 1.0) and the acceptable distribution range of ILCR (10 -6 -10 -4 ). Therefore, this study concluded that present levels of OCs (HCH, DDT and PCBs) in studied soils were low, and subsequently posed low health risk to human population in the study area.

  18. An alternative covariance estimator to investigate genetic heterogeneity in populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heslot, Nicolas; Jannink, Jean-Luc

    2015-11-26

    For genomic prediction and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) using mixed models, covariance between individuals is estimated using molecular markers. Based on the properties of mixed models, using available molecular data for prediction is optimal if this covariance is known. Under this assumption, adding individuals to the analysis should never be detrimental. However, some empirical studies showed that increasing training population size decreased prediction accuracy. Recently, results from theoretical models indicated that even if marker density is high and the genetic architecture of traits is controlled by many loci with small additive effects, the covariance between individuals, which depends on relationships at causal loci, is not always well estimated by the whole-genome kinship. We propose an alternative covariance estimator named K-kernel, to account for potential genetic heterogeneity between populations that is characterized by a lack of genetic correlation, and to limit the information flow between a priori unknown populations in a trait-specific manner. This is similar to a multi-trait model and parameters are estimated by REML and, in extreme cases, it can allow for an independent genetic architecture between populations. As such, K-kernel is useful to study the problem of the design of training populations. K-kernel was compared to other covariance estimators or kernels to examine its fit to the data, cross-validated accuracy and suitability for GWAS on several datasets. It provides a significantly better fit to the data than the genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and, in some cases it performs better than other kernels such as the Gaussian kernel, as shown by an empirical null distribution. In GWAS simulations, alternative kernels control type I errors as well as or better than the classical whole-genome kinship and increase statistical power. No or small gains were observed in cross-validated prediction accuracy. This alternative

  19. Modeling, Identification, Estimation, and Simulation of Urban Traffic Flow in Jakarta and Bandung

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herman Y. Sutarto

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an overview of urban traffic flow from the perspective of system theory and stochastic control. The topics of modeling, identification, estimation and simulation techniques are evaluated and validated using actual traffic flow data from the city of Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia, and synthetic data generated from traffic micro-simulator VISSIM. The results on particle filter (PF based state estimation and Expectation-Maximization (EM based parameter estimation (identification confirm the proposed model gives satisfactory results that capture the variation of urban traffic flow. The combination of the technique and the simulator platform assembles possibility to develop a real-time traffic light controller.  

  20. A note on estimating urban roof runoff with a forest evaporation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gash, J.H.C.; Rosier, P.T.W.; Ragab, R.

    2008-01-01

    A model developed for estimating the evaporation of rainfall intercepted by forest canopies is applied to estimate measurements of the average runoff from the roofs of six houses made in a previous study of hydrological processes in an urban environment. The model is applied using values of the mean

  1. Estimating population effects of vaccination using large, routinely collected data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halloran, M Elizabeth; Hudgens, Michael G

    2018-01-30

    Vaccination in populations can have several kinds of effects. Establishing that vaccination produces population-level effects beyond the direct effects in the vaccinated individuals can have important consequences for public health policy. Formal methods have been developed for study designs and analysis that can estimate the different effects of vaccination. However, implementing field studies to evaluate the different effects of vaccination can be expensive, of limited generalizability, or unethical. It would be advantageous to use routinely collected data to estimate the different effects of vaccination. We consider how different types of data are needed to estimate different effects of vaccination. The examples include rotavirus vaccination of young children, influenza vaccination of elderly adults, and a targeted influenza vaccination campaign in schools. Directions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. The less healthy urban population: income-related health inequality in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wei; Kanavos, Panos

    2012-09-18

    Health inequality has been recognized as a problem all over the world. In China, the poor usually have less access to healthcare than the better-off, despite having higher levels of need. Since the proportion of the Chinese population living in urban areas increased tremendously with the urbanization movements, attention has been paid to the association between urban/rural residence and population health. It is important to understand the variation in health across income groups, and in particular to take into account the effects of urban/rural residence on the degree of income-related health inequalities. This paper empirically assesses the magnitude of rural/urban disparities in income-related adult health status, i.e., self-assessed health (SAH) and physical activity limitation, using Concentration Indices. It then uses decomposition methods to unravel the causes of inequalities and their variations across urban and rural populations. Data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) 2006 are used. The study finds that the poor are less likely to report their health status as "excellent or good" and are more likely to have physical activity limitation. Such inequality is more pronounced for the urban population than for the rural population. Results from the decomposition analysis suggest that, for the urban population, 76.47 per cent to 79.07 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic/socioeconomic-related factors, among which income, job status and educational level are the most important factors. For the rural population, 48.19 per cent to 77.78 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic factors. Income and educational attainment appear to have a prominent influence on inequality. The findings suggest that policy targeting the poor, especially the urban poor, is needed in order to reduce health inequality.

  3. The less healthy urban population: income-related health inequality in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Health inequality has been recognized as a problem all over the world. In China, the poor usually have less access to healthcare than the better-off, despite having higher levels of need. Since the proportion of the Chinese population living in urban areas increased tremendously with the urbanization movements, attention has been paid to the association between urban/rural residence and population health. It is important to understand the variation in health across income groups, and in particular to take into account the effects of urban/rural residence on the degree of income-related health inequalities. Methods This paper empirically assesses the magnitude of rural/urban disparities in income-related adult health status, i.e., self-assessed health (SAH) and physical activity limitation, using Concentration Indices. It then uses decomposition methods to unravel the causes of inequalities and their variations across urban and rural populations. Data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) 2006 are used. Results The study finds that the poor are less likely to report their health status as “excellent or good” and are more likely to have physical activity limitation. Such inequality is more pronounced for the urban population than for the rural population. Results from the decomposition analysis suggest that, for the urban population, 76.47 per cent to 79.07 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic/socioeconomic-related factors, among which income, job status and educational level are the most important factors. For the rural population, 48.19 per cent to 77.78 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic factors. Income and educational attainment appear to have a prominent influence on inequality. Conclusion The findings suggest that policy targeting the poor, especially the urban poor, is needed in order to reduce health inequality. PMID:22989200

  4. The less healthy urban population: income-related health inequality in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Wei

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health inequality has been recognized as a problem all over the world. In China, the poor usually have less access to healthcare than the better-off, despite having higher levels of need. Since the proportion of the Chinese population living in urban areas increased tremendously with the urbanization movements, attention has been paid to the association between urban/rural residence and population health. It is important to understand the variation in health across income groups, and in particular to take into account the effects of urban/rural residence on the degree of income-related health inequalities. Methods This paper empirically assesses the magnitude of rural/urban disparities in income-related adult health status, i.e., self-assessed health (SAH and physical activity limitation, using Concentration Indices. It then uses decomposition methods to unravel the causes of inequalities and their variations across urban and rural populations. Data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS 2006 are used. Results The study finds that the poor are less likely to report their health status as “excellent or good” and are more likely to have physical activity limitation. Such inequality is more pronounced for the urban population than for the rural population. Results from the decomposition analysis suggest that, for the urban population, 76.47 per cent to 79.07 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic/socioeconomic-related factors, among which income, job status and educational level are the most important factors. For the rural population, 48.19 per cent to 77.78 per cent of inequalities are driven by non-demographic factors. Income and educational attainment appear to have a prominent influence on inequality. Conclusion The findings suggest that policy targeting the poor, especially the urban poor, is needed in order to reduce health inequality.

  5. The study to estimate the floating population in Seoul, Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Geon Woo; Lee, Yong Jin; Kim, Youngeun; Hong, Seung-Han; Kim, Soohwaun; Kim, Jeong Soo; Lee, Jong Tae; Shin, Dong Chun; Lim, Youngwook

    2017-01-01

    Traffic-related pollutants have been reported to increase the morbidity of respiratory diseases. In order to apply management policies related to motor vehicles, studies of the floating population living in cities are important. The rate of metro rail transit system use by passengers residing in Seoul is about 54% of total public transportation use. Through the rate of metro use, the people-flow ratios in each administrative area were calculated. By applying a people-flow ratio based on the official census count, the floating population in 25 regions was calculated. The reduced level of deaths among the floating population in 14 regions having the roadside monitoring station was calculated as assuming a 20% reduction of mobile emission based on the policy. The hourly floating population size was calculated by applying the hourly population ratio to the regional population size as specified in the official census count. The number of people moving from 5 a.m. to next day 1 a.m. could not be precisely calculated when the population size was applied, but no issue was observed that would trigger a sizable shift in the rate of population change. The three patterns of increase, decrease, and no change of population in work hours were analyzed. When the concentration of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter was reduced by 20%, the number of excess deaths varied according to the difference of the floating population. The effective establishment of directions to manage the pollutants in cities should be carried out by considering the floating population. Although the number of people using the metro system is only an estimate, this disadvantage was supplemented by calculating inflow and outflow ratio of metro users per time in the total floating population in each region. Especially, 54% of metro usage in public transport causes high reliability in application.

  6. The study to estimate the floating population in Seoul, Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geon Woo Lee

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Traffic-related pollutants have been reported to increase the morbidity of respiratory diseases. In order to apply management policies related to motor vehicles, studies of the floating population living in cities are important. The rate of metro rail transit system use by passengers residing in Seoul is about 54% of total public transportation use. Through the rate of metro use, the people-flow ratios in each administrative area were calculated. By applying a people-flow ratio based on the official census count, the floating population in 25 regions was calculated. The reduced level of deaths among the floating population in 14 regions having the roadside monitoring station was calculated as assuming a 20% reduction of mobile emission based on the policy. The hourly floating population size was calculated by applying the hourly population ratio to the regional population size as specified in the official census count. The number of people moving from 5 a.m. to next day 1 a.m. could not be precisely calculated when the population size was applied, but no issue was observed that would trigger a sizable shift in the rate of population change. The three patterns of increase, decrease, and no change of population in work hours were analyzed. When the concentration of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter was reduced by 20%, the number of excess deaths varied according to the difference of the floating population. The effective establishment of directions to manage the pollutants in cities should be carried out by considering the floating population. Although the number of people using the metro system is only an estimate, this disadvantage was supplemented by calculating inflow and outflow ratio of metro users per time in the total floating population in each region. Especially, 54% of metro usage in public transport causes high reliability in application.

  7. Dengue seroprevalence and force of primary infection in a representative population of urban dwelling Indonesian children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nealon, Joshua; Satari, Hindra Irawan; Karyanti, Mulya Rahma; Sekartini, Rini; Soedjatmiko, Soedjatmiko; Gunardi, Hartono; Medise, Bernie Endyarni; Sasmono, R. Tedjo; Simmerman, James Mark; Bouckenooghe, Alain; Hadinegoro, Sri Rezeki

    2017-01-01

    Background Indonesia reports the second highest dengue disease burden in the world; these data are from passive surveillance reports and are likely to be significant underestimates. Age-stratified seroprevalence data are relatively unbiased indicators of past exposure and allow understanding of transmission dynamics. Methodology/Principal Findings To better understand dengue infection history and associated risk factors in Indonesia, a representative population-based cross-sectional dengue seroprevalence study was conducted in 1–18-year-old urban children. From October to November 2014, 3,210 children were enrolled from 30 geographically dispersed clusters. Serum samples were tested for anti-dengue IgG antibodies by indirect ELISA. A questionnaire investigated associations between dengue serologic status and household socio-demographic and behavioural factors. Overall, 3,194 samples were tested, giving an adjusted national seroprevalence in this urban population of 69.4% [95% CI: 64.4–74.3] (33.8% [95% CI: 26.4–41.2] in the 1–4-year-olds, 65.4% [95% CI: 69.1–71.7] in the 5–9-year-olds, 83.1% [95% CI: 77.1–89.0] in the 10–14-year-olds, and 89.0% [95% CI: 83.9–94.1] in the 15–18-year–olds). The median age of seroconversion estimated through a linear model was 4.8 years. Using a catalytic model and considering a constant force of infection we estimated 13.1% of children experience a primary infection per year. Through a hierarchical logistic multivariate model, the subject’s age group (1–4 vs 5–9 OR = 4.25; 1–4 vs. 10–14 OR = 12.60; and 1–4 vs 15–18 OR = 21.87; p<0.0001) and the number of cases diagnosed in the household since the subject was born (p = 0.0004) remained associated with dengue serological status. Conclusions/Significance This is the first dengue seroprevalence study in Indonesia that is targeting a representative sample of the urban paediatric population. This study revealed that more than 80% of children aged 10

  8. Fasting glucose and cardiovascular risk factors in an urban population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, R; Sarna, M; Thanvi, Jyoti; Sharma, Vibha; Gupta, V P

    2007-10-01

    To test the hypothesis that blood glucose levels in the range of normoglycemia are associated with increased cardiovascular risk we performed an epidemiological study in an urban population. Randomly selected adults > or = 20 years were studied using stratified sampling. Target sample was 1800 (men 960, women 840) of which 1123 subjects participated. Blood samples were available in 1091 subjects (60.6%, men 532, women 559). Measurement of anthropometric variables, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose and lipids was performed. Cardiovascular risk factors were determined using US Adult Treatment Panel-3 guidelines. Pearson's correlation coefficients (r) of fasting glucose with various risk factors were determined. Fasting glucose levels were classified into various groups as 126 mg/dl or known diabetes. Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors was determined in each group. There was a significant positive correlation of fasting glucose in men and women with body mass index (r = 0.20, 0.12), waist-hip ratio (0.17, 0.09), systolic blood pressure (0.07, 0.22), total cholesterol (0.21, 0.15) and triglycerides (0.21, 0.25). Prevalence (%) of cardiovascular risk factors in men and women was smoking/tobacco use in 37.6 and 11.6, hypertension in 37.0 and 37.6, overweight and obesity in 37.8 and 50.3, truncal obesity in 57.3 and 68.0, high cholesterol > or = 200 mg/dl in 37.4 and 45.8, high triglycerides > or = 150 mg/dl in 32.3 and 28.6 and metabolic syndrome in 22.9 and 31.6 percent. In various groups of fasting glucose there was an increasing trend in prevalence of overweight/obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertriglyceridaemia, and metabolic syndrome (Mantel-Haenzel X2 for trend, p fasting glucose continuous relationship of fasting glucose levels with many cardiovascular risk factors and level < 75 mg/dl is associated with the lowest prevalence.

  9. A new technique for fire risk estimation in the wildland urban interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasgupta, S.; Qu, J. J.; Hao, X.

    A novel technique based on the physical variable of pre-ignition energy is proposed for assessing fire risk in the Grassland-Urban-Interface The physical basis lends meaning a site and season independent applicability possibilities for computing spread rates and ignition probabilities features contemporary fire risk indices usually lack The method requires estimates of grass moisture content and temperature A constrained radiative-transfer inversion scheme on MODIS NIR-SWIR reflectances which reduces solution ambiguity is used for grass moisture retrieval while MODIS land surface temperature emissivity products are used for retrieving grass temperature Subpixel urban contamination of the MODIS reflective and thermal signals over a Grassland-Urban-Interface pixel is corrected using periodic estimates of urban influence from high spatial resolution ASTER

  10. Population Invasion” versus Urban Exclusion in the Tibetan Areas of Western China

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Andrew Martín

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis article examines the confluence of local population transitions (demographic transition and urbanization) with non-local in-migration in the Tibetan areas of western China. The objective is to assess the validity of Tibetan perceptions of "population invasion" by Han Chinese and Chinese Muslims. The article argues that migration to Tibet from other regions in China has been concentrated in urban areas and has been counterbalanced by more rapid rates of natural increase in the...

  11. Urbanization is Associated with Increased Trends in Cardiovascular Mortality Among Indigenous Populations: the PAI Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anderson da Costa Armstrong

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: The cardiovascular risk burden among diverse indigenous populations is not totally known and may be influenced by lifestyle changes related to the urbanization process. Objectives: To investigate the cardiovascular (CV mortality profile of indigenous populations during a rapid urbanization process largely influenced by governmental infrastructure interventions in Northeast Brazil. Methods: We assessed the mortality of indigenous populations (≥ 30 y/o from 2007 to 2011 in Northeast Brazil (Bahia and Pernambuco states. Cardiovascular mortality was considered if the cause of death was in the ICD-10 CV disease group or if registered as sudden death. The indigenous populations were then divided into two groups according to the degree of urbanization based on anthropological criteria:9,10 Group 1 - less urbanized tribes (Funi-ô, Pankararu, Kiriri, and Pankararé; and Group 2 - more urbanized tribes (Tuxá, Truká, and Tumbalalá. Mortality rates of highly urbanized cities (Petrolina and Juazeiro in the proximity of indigenous areas were also evaluated. The analysis explored trends in the percentage of CV mortality for each studied population. Statistical significance was established for p value < 0.05. Results: There were 1,333 indigenous deaths in tribes of Bahia and Pernambuco (2007-2011: 281 in Group 1 (1.8% of the 2012 group population and 73 in Group 2 (3.7% of the 2012 group population, CV mortality of 24% and 37%, respectively (p = 0.02. In 2007-2009, there were 133 deaths in Group 1 and 44 in Group 2, CV mortality of 23% and 34%, respectively. In 2009-2010, there were 148 deaths in Group 1 and 29 in Group 2, CV mortality of 25% and 41%, respectively. Conclusions: Urbanization appears to influence increases in CV mortality of indigenous peoples living in traditional tribes. Lifestyle and environmental changes due to urbanization added to suboptimal health care may increase CV risk in this population.

  12. Estimating the Impact of Urbanization on Air Quality in China Using Spatial Regression Models

    OpenAIRE

    Fang, Chuanglin; Liu, Haimeng; Li, Guangdong; Sun, Dongqi; Miao, Zhuang

    2015-01-01

    Urban air pollution is one of the most visible environmental problems to have accompanied China’s rapid urbanization. Based on emission inventory data from 2014, gathered from 289 cities, we used Global and Local Moran’s I to measure the spatial autorrelation of Air Quality Index (AQI) values at the city level, and employed Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Spatial Lag Model (SAR), and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to quantitatively estimate the comprehensive impact and spatial variati...

  13. A NEW MODIFIED RATIO ESTIMATOR FOR ESTIMATION OF POPULATION MEAN WHEN MEDIAN OF THE AUXILIARY VARIABLE IS KNOWN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jambulingam Subramani

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The present paper deals with a modified ratio estimator for estimation of population mean of the study variable when the population median of the auxiliary variable is known. The bias and mean squared error of the proposed estimator are derived and are compared with that of existing modified ratio estimators for certain known populations. Further we have also derived the conditions for which the proposed estimator performs better than the existing modified ratio estimators. From the numerical study it is also observed that the proposed modified ratio estimator performs better than the existing modified ratio estimators for certain known populations.

  14. Constructing an Urban Population Model for Medical Insurance Scheme Using Microsimulation Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linping Xiong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available China launched a pilot project of medical insurance reform in 79 cities in 2007 to cover urban nonworking residents. An urban population model was created in this paper for China’s medical insurance scheme using microsimulation model techniques. The model made it clear for the policy makers the population distributions of different groups of people, the potential urban residents entering the medical insurance scheme. The income trends of units of individuals and families were also obtained. These factors are essential in making the challenging policy decisions when considering to balance the long-term financial sustainability of the medical insurance scheme.

  15. Estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

    2014-01-01

    Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for such things as the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, Flood Insurance Studies, and flood-plain management. The flood-frequency estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. A multistate approach was used to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The multistate approach has the advantage over a single state approach of increasing the number of stations available for analysis, expanding the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across state boundaries, and building on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) in the Southeastern United States. In addition, streamgages from the inner Coastal Plain of New Jersey were included in the analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques were used to generate predictive equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows for urban and small, rural ungaged basins for three hydrologic regions; the Piedmont-Ridge and Valley, Sand Hills, and Coastal Plain. Incorporation of urban streamgages from New Jersey also allowed for the expansion of the applicability of the predictive equations in the Coastal Plain from 2.1 to 53.5 square miles. Explanatory variables in the regression equations included drainage area (DA) and percent of impervious area (IA) for the Piedmont-Ridge and Valley region; DA and percent of developed land for the Sand Hills; and DA, IA, and 24-hour, 50-year maximum precipitation for the Coastal Plain. An application spreadsheet also was developed that can be used to compute the flood-frequency estimates along with the 95-percent prediction

  16. Population growth and rural-urban migration, with special reference to Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Graft-johnson, K T

    1974-01-01

    While the population of Ghana is expected to double in 25 years at the current rate of increase (approximately 2.5% per annum), the population of urban centers is increasing even faster. The 1970 census shows the urban population growing by 4.8% per annum. This is mainly the result of rural to urban migration and, to a smaller extent, the increase in the number of urban centers from 39 in 1948 to 98 in 1960 to 135 in 1970. In the 1970 census only 57.1% of the population were enumerated in their locality of birth and only 20.9% in a locality other than their place of birth but in the same region. 4.1% were born outside Ghana, mostly in another West African country. 1 striking difference between urban and rural areas is the differing sex ratio of the working population. In rural areas there are 91.0 males aged 15-64 years for every 100 females while in urban areas there are 107.1. Most migration in Africa is for employment and those most likely to migrate are working-age males. Because secondary schools are scarce in rural areas, urban dwellers generally have a higher education level. There are no significant differences between overall labor force participation rates for females. The nationwide participation rate was 38.9% for both males and females (males 43.8%, females 34.1%); in urban areas the total was 40.0% (males 46.3%, females 33.7%) and in rural areas 38.5% (males 42.7%, females 34.3%). Ghanaian women have traditionally occupied a prominent place in the labor force. The theory that urban migration is due to urban-rural income disparities is not confirmed by figures. Considering the high amount of unemployment in urban areas, a rural dweller can average as much as a city dweller. In fact, poorly educated migrants are the ones most affected by urban unemployment. A recent study by Kodwo Ewusi considered the impact of many variables on migration; he found depressed social conditions at the place of origin are more compelling motivations than economic factors

  17. Civilizing the city: populism and revanchist urbanism in Rotterdam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uitermark, J.; Duyvendak, J.W.

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses the relevance of American literature on ‘revanchist urbanism’ for understanding the policies of the populist government that ruled Rotterdam between 2002 and 2006. It is suggested that revanchist urbanism in the European context in general and in the case of Rotterdam in

  18. Prevalence of risk factors for coronary artery disease in an urban Indian population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekhri, T; Kanwar, R S; Wilfred, R; Chugh, P; Chhillar, M; Aggarwal, R; Sharma, Y K; Sethi, J; Sundriyal, J; Bhadra, K; Singh, S; Rautela, N; Chand, Tek; Singh, M; Singh, S K

    2014-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD) in government employees across India. Methods The study population consisted of government employees in different parts of India ({n=10 642 men and n=1966 women; age 20–60 years}) and comprised various ethnic groups living in different environmental conditions. Recruitment was carried out in 20 cities across 14 states, and in one union territory. All selected individuals were subjected to a detailed questionnaire, medical examinations and anthropometric measurements. Blood samples were collected for blood glucose and serum lipid profile estimation, and resting ECG was recorded. Results were analysed using appropriate statistical tools. Results The study revealed that 4.6% of the study population had a family history of premature CAD. The overall prevalence of diabetes was 16% (5.6% diagnosed during the study and the remaining 10.4% already on medication). Hypertension was present in 21% of subjects. The prevalence of dyslipidemia was significantly high, with 45.6% of study subjects having a high total cholesterol/high density lipoprotein ratio. Overall, 78.6% subjects had two or more risk factors for CAD. Conclusions The present study demonstrates a high prevalence of CAD risk factors in the Indian urban population. Therefore, there is an immediate need to initiate measures to raise awareness of these risk factors so that individuals at high risk for future CAD can be managed. PMID:25488095

  19. Personality Traits and Behavioral Syndromes in Differently Urbanized Populations of House Sparrows (Passer domesticus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bókony, Veronika; Kulcsár, Anna; Tóth, Zoltán; Liker, András

    2012-01-01

    Urbanization creates novel environments for wild animals where selection pressures may differ drastically from those in natural habitats. Adaptation to urban life involves changes in various traits, including behavior. Behavioral traits often vary consistently among individuals, and these so-called personality traits can be correlated with each other, forming behavioral syndromes. Despite their adaptive significance and potential to act as constraints, little is known about the role of animal personality and behavioral syndromes in animals' adaptation to urban habitats. In this study we tested whether differently urbanized habitats select for different personalities and behavioral syndromes by altering the population mean, inter-individual variability, and correlations of personality traits. We captured house sparrows (Passer domesticus) from four different populations along the gradient of urbanization and assessed their behavior in standardized test situations. We found individual consistency in neophobia, risk taking, and activity, constituting three personality axes. On the one hand, urbanization did not consistently affect the mean and variance of these traits, although there were significant differences between some of the populations in food neophobia and risk taking (both in means and variances). On the other hand, both urban and rural birds exhibited a behavioral syndrome including object neophobia, risk taking and activity, whereas food neophobia was part of the syndrome only in rural birds. These results indicate that there are population differences in certain aspects of personality in house sparrows, some of which may be related to habitat urbanization. Our findings suggest that urbanization and/or other population-level habitat differences may not only influence the expression of personality traits but also alter their inter-individual variability and the relationships among them, changing the structure of behavioral syndromes. PMID:22574204

  20. Can genetic estimators provide robust estimates of the effective number of breeders in small populations?

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    Marion Hoehn

    Full Text Available The effective population size (N(e is proportional to the loss of genetic diversity and the rate of inbreeding, and its accurate estimation is crucial for the monitoring of small populations. Here, we integrate temporal studies of the gecko Oedura reticulata, to compare genetic and demographic estimators of N(e. Because geckos have overlapping generations, our goal was to demographically estimate N(bI, the inbreeding effective number of breeders and to calculate the N(bI/N(a ratio (N(a =number of adults for four populations. Demographically estimated N(bI ranged from 1 to 65 individuals. The mean reduction in the effective number of breeders relative to census size (N(bI/N(a was 0.1 to 1.1. We identified the variance in reproductive success as the most important variable contributing to reduction of this ratio. We used four methods to estimate the genetic based inbreeding effective number of breeders N(bI(gen and the variance effective populations size N(eV(gen estimates from the genotype data. Two of these methods - a temporal moment-based (MBT and a likelihood-based approach (TM3 require at least two samples in time, while the other two were single-sample estimators - the linkage disequilibrium method with bias correction LDNe and the program ONeSAMP. The genetic based estimates were fairly similar across methods and also similar to the demographic estimates excluding those estimates, in which upper confidence interval boundaries were uninformative. For example, LDNe and ONeSAMP estimates ranged from 14-55 and 24-48 individuals, respectively. However, temporal methods suffered from a large variation in confidence intervals and concerns about the prior information. We conclude that the single-sample estimators are an acceptable short-cut to estimate N(bI for species such as geckos and will be of great importance for the monitoring of species in fragmented landscapes.

  1. Hygienic estimation of population doses due to stratospheric fallout

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marej, A.N.; Knizhnikov, V.A.

    1980-01-01

    The hygienic estimation of external and internal irradiation of the USSR population due to stratospheric global fallouts of fission products after nuclear explosions and weapon tests, is carried out. Numerical values which characterize the dose-effect dependence in the case of radiation of marrow, bone tissue and whole body are presented. Values of mean individual and population doses of irradiation due to global fallouts within 1963-1975, types of injury and the number of mortal cases due to malignant neoplasms are presented. A conclusion is made that the contribution of radiation due to stratospheric fallouts in the mortality due to malignant neoplasms is insignificant. Annual radiation doses, conditioned by global fallouts within the period of 1963-1975 constitute but several percent from the dose of radiation of the natural radiation background. Results of estimation of genetic consequences of irradiation due to atmospheric fallouts are presented

  2. Myocardial infarction in Québec rural and urban populations between 1995 and 1997.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loslier, Julie; Vanasse, Alain; Niyonsenga, Théophile; Courteau, Josiane; Orzanco, Gabriela; Hemiari, Abbas

    2007-01-01

    There is abundant evidence of health inequities between urban and rural populations. The purpose of this paper is to describe the socioeconomic characteristics of Québec urban and rural populations and the relation between rurality and incidence of myocardial infarction (MI), care management and outcomes. Socioeconomic data by census subdivisions were available from the 1996 Canadian census, representing 7,137,245 individuals. Data on patients with MI were taken from the provincial administrative health database (MED-ECHO), which is managed by the Ministry of Health and contains clinical and demographic information collected when patients are released from acute care hospitals in Québec. We included a total of 37,678 cases compiled over the 3 years of follow-up in the analyses. Residents of rural areas with low urban influence have higher MI incidence rates than all of the other populations in the study. In comparison with urban populations, their observed rural counterparts are at a disadvantage with regard to education, employment and income. Although angioplasty and coronary artery bypass graft surgery rates were higher in more urban areas, the survival rate was lower than in rural areas. This study revealed geographic heterogeneity of MI incidence, revascularization rates and survival rates among urban and rural populations.

  3. The effects of spatial population dataset choice on estimates of population at risk of disease

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    Gething Peter W

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The spatial modeling of infectious disease distributions and dynamics is increasingly being undertaken for health services planning and disease control monitoring, implementation, and evaluation. Where risks are heterogeneous in space or dependent on person-to-person transmission, spatial data on human population distributions are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. Several different modeled human population distribution datasets are available and widely used, but the disparities among them and the implications for enumerating disease burdens and populations at risk have not been considered systematically. Here, we quantify some of these effects using global estimates of populations at risk (PAR of P. falciparum malaria as an example. Methods The recent construction of a global map of P. falciparum malaria endemicity enabled the testing of different gridded population datasets for providing estimates of PAR by endemicity class. The estimated population numbers within each class were calculated for each country using four different global gridded human population datasets: GRUMP (~1 km spatial resolution, LandScan (~1 km, UNEP Global Population Databases (~5 km, and GPW3 (~5 km. More detailed assessments of PAR variation and accuracy were conducted for three African countries where census data were available at a higher administrative-unit level than used by any of the four gridded population datasets. Results The estimates of PAR based on the datasets varied by more than 10 million people for some countries, even accounting for the fact that estimates of population totals made by different agencies are used to correct national totals in these datasets and can vary by more than 5% for many low-income countries. In many cases, these variations in PAR estimates comprised more than 10% of the total national population. The detailed country-level assessments suggested that none of the datasets was

  4. Estimate of consumption of phenolic compounds by Brazilian population

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    Vanesa Gesser Corrêa

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Estimate the intake of phenolic compounds by the Brazilian population. METHODS: To estimate the average per capita food consumption, micro data from the National Dietary Survey and from the Household Budget Survey from 2008 to 2009 was analyzed. The phenolic content in food was estimated from the base of Phenol-Explorer. It was chosen according to compatibility and variety of food items and usual method of preparation. RESULTS: The Brazilian population consumed, on average, 460.15 mg/day of total phenolic compounds, derived mainly from beverages (48.9%, especially coffee and legumes (19.5%. Since this analysis of classes of phenolics it was possible to observe an intake of 314 mg/day of phenolic acids, 138.92 mg/day of flavonoids and 7.16 mg/ day of other kinds of phenolics. Regarding the variables studied this present study shows that those men who live in the countryside and in the northeastern region of the country had a higher consumption of phenolic compounds. Besides, consumption was higher by adults and the elderly, the medium income classes, the population with incomplete and complete primary education and those with adequate nutrition and also overweight status. CONCLUSION: The intake of phenolic compounds can be considered low, especially where consumption of fruit and vegetables is insufficient. We can conclude that coffee and black beans were the best contributors to phenolic intake.

  5. Internal migration and urbanization in China: impacts on population exposure to household air pollution (2000-2010).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aunan, Kristin; Wang, Shuxiao

    2014-05-15

    Exposure to fine particles ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) from incomplete combustion of solid fuels in household stoves, denoted household air pollution (HAP), is a major contributor to ill health in China and globally. Chinese households are, however, undergoing a massive transition to cleaner household fuels. The objective of the present study is to establish the importance of internal migration when it comes to the changing household fuel use pattern and the associated exposure to PM2.5 for the period 2000 to 2010. We also estimate health benefits of the fuel transition in terms of avoided premature deaths. Using China Census data on population, migration, and household fuel use for 2000 and 2010 we identify the size, place of residence, and main cooking fuel of sub-populations in 2000 and 2010, respectively. We combine these data with estimated exposure levels for the sub-populations and estimate changes in population exposure over the decade. We find that the population weighted exposure (PWE) for the Chinese population as a whole was reduced by 52 (36-70) μg/m(3) PM2.5 over the decade, and that about 60% of the reduction can be linked to internal migration. During the same period the migrant population, in total 261 million people, was subject to a reduced population weighted exposure (ΔPWE) of 123 (87-165) μg/m(3) PM2.5. The corresponding figure for non-migrants is 34 (23-47) μg/m(3). The largest ΔPWE was estimated for rural-to-urban migrants (138 million people), 214 (154-283) μg/m(3). The estimated annual health benefit associated with the reduced exposure in the total population is 31 (26-37) billion USD, corresponding to 0.4% of the Chinese GDP. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Approximate maximum likelihood estimation for population genetic inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertl, Johanna; Ewing, Gregory; Kosiol, Carolin; Futschik, Andreas

    2017-11-27

    In many population genetic problems, parameter estimation is obstructed by an intractable likelihood function. Therefore, approximate estimation methods have been developed, and with growing computational power, sampling-based methods became popular. However, these methods such as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) can be inefficient in high-dimensional problems. This led to the development of more sophisticated iterative estimation methods like particle filters. Here, we propose an alternative approach that is based on stochastic approximation. By moving along a simulated gradient or ascent direction, the algorithm produces a sequence of estimates that eventually converges to the maximum likelihood estimate, given a set of observed summary statistics. This strategy does not sample much from low-likelihood regions of the parameter space, and is fast, even when many summary statistics are involved. We put considerable efforts into providing tuning guidelines that improve the robustness and lead to good performance on problems with high-dimensional summary statistics and a low signal-to-noise ratio. We then investigate the performance of our resulting approach and study its properties in simulations. Finally, we re-estimate parameters describing the demographic history of Bornean and Sumatran orang-utans.

  7. Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Cherkiss, Michael; Jeffery, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001–2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations.

  8. Ambit determination method in estimating rice plant population density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abu Bakar, B.,

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Rice plant population density is a key indicator in determining the crop setting and fertilizer application rate. It is therefore essential that the population density is monitored to ensure that a correct crop management decision is taken. The conventional method of determining plant population is by manually counting the total number of rice plant tillers in a 25 cm x 25 cm square frame. Sampling is done by randomly choosing several different locations within a plot to perform tiller counting. This sampling method is time consuming, labour intensive and costly. An alternative fast estimating method was developed to overcome this issue. The method relies on measuring the outer circumference or ambit of the contained rice plants in a 25 cm x 25 cm square frame to determine the number of tillers within that square frame. Data samples of rice variety MR219 were collected from rice plots in the Muda granary area, Sungai Limau Dalam, Kedah. The data were taken at 50 days and 70 days after seeding (DAS. A total of 100 data samples were collected for each sampling day. A good correlation was obtained for the variety of 50 DAS and 70 DAS. The model was then verified by taking 100 samples with the latching strap for 50 DAS and 70 DAS. As a result, this technique can be used as a fast, economical and practical alternative to manual tiller counting. The technique can potentially be used in the development of an electronic sensing system to estimate paddy plant population density.

  9. Analysis of Urban Growth in Edwardsville Illinois Using Remote Sensing and Population Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onuoha, Hilda U.

    Rapid urbanization is one of the many critical, global issues. This very significant social and economic phenomenon has brought about much debate in the past twenty years and has become a very important policy issue. Understanding its dynamics and patterns is important to develop appropriate policies and make more informed planning decisions. Many dimensions to the urban land growth have been identified in related literature including drivers, relationship with other factors like population, impacts, and methods of measurement. In this study, urban growth in the Edwardsville area (composed of Edwardsville and Glen Carbon, Illinois) is analyzed spatio-temporally using remote sensing and population change from 1990 to 2015. The objectives of this study are (a) identifying the major land use changes in the Edwardsville area from 1990 to 2015, (b) analyzing the rate of urban growth and its relationship to population change in the area from 1990 to 2015, (c) identifying the general pattern and direction of urban growth in the study area. Using multi-temporal satellite images to classify and derive changes in land cover classes during the study period, results showed that the land cover classes with major changes are the urban/built-up land and agricultural/grassland, with a steady increase in the former and steady decrease in the later. Results also show the highest rate of increase in urban land was between 2000 and 2010. In comparison to population, the both show increase over the study years but urban land shows a higher rate of increase indicating dispersion. To analyze urban growth pattern in the area, the study area was divided into three zones: NE, SE, and W. The SE zone showed the highest amount of the growth and from the results, the infill type of growth was inferred.

  10. Urban versus rural populations' views of health care in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Jane; Hinds, Kerstin; Richards, Helen; Godden, David

    2005-10-01

    To compare satisfaction with, and expectations of, health care of people in rural and urban areas of Scotland. Questions were included in the 2002 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey (SSAS). The Scottish House-hold Survey urban-rural classification was used to categorize locations. A random sample of 2707 people was contacted to participate in a face-to-face interview and a self-completion questionnaire survey. SPSS (v.10) was used to analyse the data. Relationships between location category and responses were explored using logistic regression analysis. In all, 1665 (61.5%) interviews were conducted and 1507 (56.0%) respondents returned self-completion questionnaires. Satisfaction with local doctors and hospital services was higher in rural locations. While around 40% of those living in remote areas thought A&E services too distant, this did not rank as a top priority for health service improvement. This could be due to expectations that general practitioners would assist in out-of-hours emergencies. Most Scots thought services should be good in rural areas even if this was costly, and that older people should not be discouraged from moving to rural areas because of their likely health care needs. In all, 79% of respondents thought that care should be as good in rural as urban areas. Responses to many questions were independently significantly affected by rural/urban location. Most Scots want rural health care to continue to be good, but the new UK National Health Service (NHS) general practitioner contract and service redesign will impact on provision. Current high satisfaction, likely to be due to access and expectations about local help, could be affected. This study provides baseline data on attitudes and expectations before potential service redesign, which should be monitored at intervals in future.

  11. Estimating the size of the homeless adolescent population across seven cities in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay Stark

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Government of Cambodia has committed to supporting family care for vulnerable children, including homeless populations. Collecting baseline data on the numbers and characteristics of homeless adolescents was prioritized to illuminate the scope of the issue, mobilize resources and direct the response. Methods Administrative zones across seven cities were purposively selected to cover the main urban areas known to have homeless populations in Cambodia. A complete enumeration of homeless individuals between the ages of 13 and 17 was attempted in the selected areas. In addition, a second independent count was conducted to enable a statistical estimation of completeness based on overlap across counts. This technique is known as capture-recapture. Adolescents were also interviewed about their schooling, health and other circumstances. Results After adjustment by the capture-recapture corrective multipliers (range: 3.53 -27.08, the study yielded an estimate of 2,697 13–17 year old homeless adolescents across all seven cities. The total number of homeless boys counted was significantly greater than homeless girls, especially in older ages. Conclusions To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time capture-recapture methods have been applied to a homeless estimation of this scale in a resource-limited setting. Findings suggest the number of homeless adolescents in Cambodia is much greater than one would expect if relying on single count data alone and that this population faces many hardships.

  12. Curve Number Estimation for a Small Urban Catchment from Recorded Rainfall-Runoff Events

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    Banasik Kazimierz

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Runoff estimation is a key component in various hydrological considerations. Estimation of storm runoff is especially important for the effective design of hydraulic and road structures, for the flood flow management, as well as for the analysis of land use changes, i.e. urbanization or low impact development of urban areas. The curve number (CN method, developed by Soil Conservation Service (SCS of the U.S. Department of Agriculture for predicting the flood runoff depth from ungauged catchments, has been in continuous use for ca. 60 years. This method has not been extensively tested in Poland, especially in small urban catchments, because of lack of data. In this study, 39 rainfall-runoff events, collected during four years (2009–2012 in a small (A=28.7 km2, urban catchment of Służew Creek in southwest part of Warsaw were used, with the aim of determining the CNs and to check its applicability to ungauged urban areas. The parameters CN, estimated empirically, vary from 65.1 to 95.0, decreasing with rainfall size and, when sorted rainfall and runoff separately, reaching the value from 67 to 74 for large rainfall events.

  13. Dynamic assessments of population exposure to urban greenspace using multi-source big data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yimeng; Huang, Bo; Cai, Jixuan; Chen, Bin

    2018-09-01

    A growing body of evidence has proven that urban greenspace is beneficial to improve people's physical and mental health. However, knowledge of population exposure to urban greenspace across different spatiotemporal scales remains unclear. Moreover, the majority of existing environmental assessments are unable to quantify how residents enjoy their ambient greenspace during their daily life. To deal with this challenge, we proposed a dynamic method to assess urban greenspace exposure with the integration of mobile-phone locating-request (MPL) data and high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images. This method was further applied to 30 major cities in China by assessing cities' dynamic greenspace exposure levels based on residents' surrounding areas with different buffer scales (0.5km, 1km, and 1.5km). Results showed that regarding residents' 0.5-km surrounding environment, Wenzhou and Hangzhou were found to be with the greenest exposure experience, whereas Zhengzhou and Tangshan were the least ones. The obvious diurnal and daily variations of population exposure to their surrounding greenspace were also identified to be highly correlated with the distribution pattern of urban greenspace and the dynamics of human mobility. Compared with two common measurements of urban greenspace (green coverage rate and green area per capita), the developed method integrated the dynamics of population distribution and geographic locations of urban greenspace into the exposure assessment, thereby presenting a more reasonable way to assess population exposure to urban greenspace. Additionally, this dynamic framework could hold potential utilities in supporting urban planning studies and environmental health studies and advancing our understanding of the magnitude of population exposure to greenspace at different spatiotemporal scales. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Prevalence of primary open-angle glaucoma in an urban south Indian population and comparison with a rural population. The Chennai Glaucoma Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijaya, Lingam; George, Ronnie; Baskaran, M; Arvind, Hemamalini; Raju, Prema; Ramesh, S Ve; Kumaramanickavel, Govindasamy; McCarty, Catherine

    2008-04-01

    To estimate the prevalence and risk factors of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in an urban population and compare the same with that of our published rural population data in southern India. Population-based cross-sectional study. Four thousand eight hundred subjects 40 years or older were selected using a multistage random cluster sampling procedure in Chennai city. Three thousand eight hundred fifty (80.2%) subjects underwent a complete ophthalmic examination, including applanation tonometry, gonioscopy, pachymetry, optic disc photography, and automated perimetry. Glaucoma was diagnosed using the International Society of Geographical and Epidemiological Ophthalmology Classification. The distribution of intraocular pressure (IOP) and vertical cup-to-disc ratio (VCDR) was obtained from the right eye of the 2532 subjects with normal suprathreshold visual fields. Mean IOP was 16.17+/-3.74 mmHg (97.5th and 99.5th percentiles, 24 mmHg and 30 mmHg). The mean VCDR was 0.43+/-0.17 (97.5th and 99.5th percentiles, 0.7 and 0.8). One hundred thirty-five (64 men, 71 women) subjects had POAG (3.51%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.04-4.0). Primary open-angle glaucoma subjects (58.4+/-11.3 years) were older (P or =40-year-old south Indian urban population was 3.51%, higher than that of the rural population. The prevalence increased with age, and >90% were not aware of the disease.

  15. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph G Makin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF, the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm. The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.

  16. Population Invasion” versus Urban Exclusion in the Tibetan Areas of Western China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.M. Fischer (Andrew Martín)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis article examines the confluence of local population transitions (demographic transition and urbanization) with non-local in-migration in the Tibetan areas of western China. The objective is to assess the validity of Tibetan perceptions of "population invasion" by Han Chinese and

  17. Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costa da Silva, Diego Firmino; Elhorst, J. Paul; Silveira Neto, Raul da Mota

    2017-01-01

    Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities. Regional Studies. Using Bayesian posterior model probabilities and data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian minimum comparable areas (MCAs) over the period 1970-2010, two theoretical settings of population growth dynamics resulting in

  18. Urban Optimum Population Size and Development Pattern Based on Ecological Footprint Model: Case of Zhoushan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan LU

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The agglomeration of population in the city can reflect the prosperity in the economy, society and culture. However, it has also brought a series of problems like environmental pollution, traffic congestion, housing shortage and jobs crisis. The results can be shown as the failure of urban comprehensive function, the decline of city benefits, and the contradiction between socioeconomic circumstance and ecosystem. Therefore, a reasonable population capacity, which is influenced by ecological resources, urban environment, geographical elements, social and economic factors, etc., is objectively needed. How to deal with the relationship between the utilization of natural capital and development of the city is extremely essential. This paper takes Zhoushan Island as an example, which is the fourth largest island off the coast of China. Firstly, the interactively influencing factors of urban optimal population are illustrated. And method is chosen to study the optimal population size. Secondly, based on the model of ecological footprint (EP, the paper calculates and analyzes the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of the Zhoushan Island, in order to explore the optimal population size of the city. Thirdly, analysis and evaluation of the resources and urban environment carrying capacity is made. Finally, the solution of the existing population problems and the suggestion for the future development pattern of the city are proposed in the urban eco-planning of Zhoushan Island. The main strategies can be summarized in two aspects: one is to reduce the ecological footprint, the other is to increase the ecological supply. The conclusion is that the current population of Zhoushan Island is far beyond the optimum population size calculated by the ecological footprint model. Therefore, sustainable development should be the guidance for urban planning in Zhoushan Island, and a low-carbon development pattern for the city is advocated.

  19. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  20. Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In

    2017-02-01

    The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.

  1. [Obesity, body morphology, and blood pressure in urban and rural population groups of Yucatan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arroyo, Pedro; Fernández, Victoria; Loría, Alvar; Pardío, Jeannette; Laviada, Hugo; Vargas-Ancona, Lizardo; Ward, Ryk

    2007-01-01

    To characterize body morphology and blood pressure of adults of the Mexican state of Yucatan. Rural-urban differences in weight, height, waist, and hip circumferences, and blood pressure were analyzed in 313 urban and 271 rural subjects. No rural-urban differences in prevalence of obesity and overweight were found. Hypertension was marginally higher in urban subjects. Rural abnormal waist circumference was higher in young men and young women. Comparison with two national surveys and a survey in the aboriginal population (rural mixtecos) showed similar prevalence of obesity as ENSA-2000 and higher than mixtecos and ENEC-1993. Abnormal waist circumference was intermediate between ENSANUT-2006 and mixtecos and hypertension was intermediate between ENEC and mixtecos. The Maya and mestizo population of Yucatan showed a high prevalence of obesity and abnormal waist circumference not accompanied by a comparable higher hypertension frequency. This finding requires further confirmation.

  2. Estimating the Returns to Urban Boarding Schools: Evidence from SEED. NBER Working Paper No. 16746

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curto, Vilsa E.; Fryer, Roland G., Jr.

    2011-01-01

    The SEED schools, which combine a "No Excuses'' charter model with a five-day-a-week boarding program, are America's only urban public boarding schools for the poor. We provide the first causal estimate of the impact of attending SEED schools on academic achievement, with the goal of understanding whether changing a student's environment through…

  3. Urban-Rural estimation of hepatitis c virus infection sero-prevalence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background/Objective: The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been partially described for at risk groups in urban communities in Nigeria. On the other hand, literature on the possible spread of the virus in rural Nigeria remains extremely scanty. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of ...

  4. A methodological framework of travel time distribution estimation for urban signalized arterial roads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zheng, Fangfang; van Zuylen, H.J.; Liu, Xiaobo

    2017-01-01

    Urban travel times are rather variable as a result of a lot of stochastic factors both in traffic flows, signals, and other conditions on the infrastructure. However, the most common way both in literature and practice is to estimate or predict only expected travel times, not travel time

  5. Scaling Law between Urban Electrical Consumption and Population in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiaowu; Xiong, Aimin; Li, Liangsheng; Liu, Maoxin; Chen, X. S.

    The relation between the household electrical consumption Y and population N for Chinese cities in 2006 has been investigated with the power law scaling form Y = A_0 N^{β}. It is found that the Chinese cities should be divided into three categories characterized by different scaling exponent β. The first category, which includes the biggest and coastal cities of China, has the scaling exponent β> 1. The second category, which includes mostly the cities in central China, has the scaling exponent β ≈ 1. The third category, which consists of the cities in northwestern China, has the scaling exponent β 1, there is also a fixed point population N f . If the initial population N(0) > N f , the population increases very fast with time and diverges within a finite time. If the initial population N(0) < N f , the population decreases with time and collapse finally. The pattern of population evolution in a city is determined by its scaling exponent and initial population.

  6. Validity of a population-specific BMR predictive equation for adults from an urban tropical setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahrlich, Vivian; Teixeira, Tatiana Miliante; Anjos, Luiz Antonio Dos

    2018-02-01

    Basal metabolic rate (BMR) is an important physiologic measure in nutrition research. In many instances it is not measured but estimated by predictive equations. The purpose of this study was to compare measured BMR (BMRm) with estimated BMR (BMRe) obtained by different equations. A convenient sample of 148 (89 women) 20-60 year-old subjects from the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil participated in the study. BMRm values were measured by an indirect calorimeter and predicted by different equations (Schofield, Henry and Rees, Mifflin-St. Jeor and Anjos. All subjects had their body composition and anthropometric variables also measured. Accuracy of the estimations was established by the percentage of BMRe falling within ±10% of BMRm and bias when the 95% CI of the difference of BMRe and BMRm means did not include zero. Mean BMRm values were 4833.5 (SD 583.3) and 6278.8 (SD 724.0) kJ*day -1 for women and men, respectively. BMRe values were both biased and inaccurate except for values predicted by the Anjos equation. BMR overestimation was approximately 20% for the Schofield equation which was higher comparatively to the Henry and Rees (14.5% and 9.6% for women and men, respectively) and the Mifflin-St. Jeor (approximately 14.0%) equations. BMR estimated by the Anjos equation was unbiased (95% CI = -78.1; 96.3 kJ day -1 for women and -282.6; 30.7 kJ*day -1 for men). Population-specific BMR predictive equations yield unbiased and accurate BMR values in adults from an urban tropical setting. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  7. Uncertainty in urban flood damage assessment due to urban drainage modelling and depth-damage curve estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freni, G; La Loggia, G; Notaro, V

    2010-01-01

    Due to the increased occurrence of flooding events in urban areas, many procedures for flood damage quantification have been defined in recent decades. The lack of large databases in most cases is overcome by combining the output of urban drainage models and damage curves linking flooding to expected damage. The application of advanced hydraulic models as diagnostic, design and decision-making support tools has become a standard practice in hydraulic research and application. Flooding damage functions are usually evaluated by a priori estimation of potential damage (based on the value of exposed goods) or by interpolating real damage data (recorded during historical flooding events). Hydraulic models have undergone continuous advancements, pushed forward by increasing computer capacity. The details of the flooding propagation process on the surface and the details of the interconnections between underground and surface drainage systems have been studied extensively in recent years, resulting in progressively more reliable models. The same level of was advancement has not been reached with regard to damage curves, for which improvements are highly connected to data availability; this remains the main bottleneck in the expected flooding damage estimation. Such functions are usually affected by significant uncertainty intrinsically related to the collected data and to the simplified structure of the adopted functional relationships. The present paper aimed to evaluate this uncertainty by comparing the intrinsic uncertainty connected to the construction of the damage-depth function to the hydraulic model uncertainty. In this way, the paper sought to evaluate the role of hydraulic model detail level in the wider context of flood damage estimation. This paper demonstrated that the use of detailed hydraulic models might not be justified because of the higher computational cost and the significant uncertainty in damage estimation curves. This uncertainty occurs mainly

  8. Density estimation in tiger populations: combining information for strong inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Delampady, Mohan; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K. Ullas; Macdonald, David W.

    2012-01-01

    A productive way forward in studies of animal populations is to efficiently make use of all the information available, either as raw data or as published sources, on critical parameters of interest. In this study, we demonstrate two approaches to the use of multiple sources of information on a parameter of fundamental interest to ecologists: animal density. The first approach produces estimates simultaneously from two different sources of data. The second approach was developed for situations in which initial data collection and analysis are followed up by subsequent data collection and prior knowledge is updated with new data using a stepwise process. Both approaches are used to estimate density of a rare and elusive predator, the tiger, by combining photographic and fecal DNA spatial capture–recapture data. The model, which combined information, provided the most precise estimate of density (8.5 ± 1.95 tigers/100 km2 [posterior mean ± SD]) relative to a model that utilized only one data source (photographic, 12.02 ± 3.02 tigers/100 km2 and fecal DNA, 6.65 ± 2.37 tigers/100 km2). Our study demonstrates that, by accounting for multiple sources of available information, estimates of animal density can be significantly improved.

  9. Current and projected prevalence of arterial hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa by sex, age and habitat: an estimate from population studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twagirumukiza, Marc; De Bacquer, Dirk; Kips, Jan G; de Backer, Guy; Stichele, Robert Vander; Van Bortel, Luc M

    2011-07-01

    In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), data on hypertension prevalence in terms of urban or rural and sex difference are lacking, heterogeneous or contradictory. In addition, there are no accurate estimates of hypertension burden. To estimate the age-specific and sex-specific prevalence of arterial hypertension in SSA in urban and rural adult populations. We searched for population studies, conducted from 1998 through 2008 in SSA. We extracted data from selected studies on available prevalences and used a logistic regression model to estimate all age/sex/habitat (urban/rural)/country-specific prevalences for SSA up to 2008 and 2025. On the basis of the United Nations Population Fund data for 2008 and predictions for 2025, we estimated the number of hypertensives in both years. Seventeen studies pertaining to 11 countries were analysed. The overall prevalence rate of hypertension in SSA for 2008 was estimated at 16.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.1-20.3], ranging from 10.6% in Ethiopia to 26.9% in Ghana. The estimated prevalence was 13.7% in rural areas, 20.7% in urban areas, 16.8% in males, and 15.7% in women. The total number of hypertensives in SSA was estimated at 75 million (95% CI 65-93 million) in 2008 and at 125.5 million (95% CI 111.0-162.9 million) by 2025. The estimated number of hypertensives in 2008 is nearly four times higher than the last (2005) estimate of the World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa. Prevalences were significantly higher in urban than in rural populations. Population data are lacking in many countries underlining the need for national surveys.

  10. Satellite data based approach for the estimation of anthropogenic heat flux over urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nitis, Theodoros; Tsegas, George; Moussiopoulos, Nicolas; Gounaridis, Dimitrios; Bliziotis, Dimitrios

    2017-09-01

    Anthropogenic effects in urban areas influence the thermal conditions in the environment and cause an increase of the atmospheric temperature. The cities are sources of heat and pollution, affecting the thermal structure of the atmosphere above them which results to the urban heat island effect. In order to analyze the urban heat island mechanism, it is important to estimate the anthropogenic heat flux which has a considerable impact on the urban energy budget. The anthropogenic heat flux is the result of man-made activities (i.e. traffic, industrial processes, heating/cooling) and thermal releases from the human body. Many studies have underlined the importance of the Anthropogenic Heat Flux to the calculation of the urban energy budget and subsequently, the estimation of mesoscale meteorological fields over urban areas. Therefore, spatially disaggregated anthropogenic heat flux data, at local and city scales, are of major importance for mesoscale meteorological models. The main objectives of the present work are to improve the quality of such data used as input for mesoscale meteorological models simulations and to enhance the application potential of GIS and remote sensing in the fields of climatology and meteorology. For this reason, the Urban Energy Budget concept is proposed as the foundation for an accurate determination of the anthropogenic heat discharge as a residual term in the surface energy balance. The methodology is applied to the cities of Athens and Paris using the Landsat ETM+ remote sensing data. The results will help to improve our knowledge on Anthropogenic Heat Flux, while the potential for further improvement of the methodology is also discussed.

  11. Estimating glomerular filtration rate in a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anoop Shankar

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Anoop Shankar1, Kristine E Lee2, Barbara EK Klein2, Paul Muntner3, Peter C Brazy4, Karen J Cruickshanks2,5, F Javier Nieto5, Lorraine G Danforth2, Carla R Schubert2,5, Michael Y Tsai6, Ronald Klein21Department of Community Medicine, West Virginia University School of Medicine, Morgantown, WV, USA; 2Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, 4Department of Medicine, 5Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin, School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI, USA; 3Department of Community Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, NY, USA; 6Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USABackground: Glomerular filtration rate (GFR-estimating equations are used to determine the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD in population-based studies. However, it has been suggested that since the commonly used GFR equations were originally developed from samples of patients with CKD, they underestimate GFR in healthy populations. Few studies have made side-by-side comparisons of the effect of various estimating equations on the prevalence estimates of CKD in a general population sample.Patients and methods: We examined a population-based sample comprising adults from Wisconsin (age, 43–86 years; 56% women. We compared the prevalence of CKD, defined as a GFR of <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 estimated from serum creatinine, by applying various commonly used equations including the modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD equation, Cockcroft–Gault (CG equation, and the Mayo equation. We compared the performance of these equations against the CKD definition of cystatin C >1.23 mg/L.Results: We found that the prevalence of CKD varied widely among different GFR equations. Although the prevalence of CKD was 17.2% with the MDRD equation and 16.5% with the CG equation, it was only 4.8% with the Mayo equation. Only 24% of those identified to have GFR in the range of 50–59 mL/min per 1

  12. Tackling the Urban Informal Economy: Some Lessons from a Study of Europe’s Urban Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin C. WILLIAMS

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to evaluate themost effective way of tackling the urban informaleconomy. It has been recently argued that theconventional rational economic actor approach(which increases the costs of participating in theurban informal economy so that they outweighthe benefi ts should be replaced or complementedby a social actor approach which focusesupon improving tax morale. To evaluate the effectivenessof these supposedly alternative approachesto tackling the participation of urbanpopulations in the informal economy, we reportthe results of face-to-face interviews conductedin 2013 with 17,886 urban dwellers across the 28Member States of the EU. Multilevel logistic regressionanalysis reveals that both approachesare effective in signifi cantly reducing the urbanpopulation’s participation in the informal economy.When tax morale is high, however, the rationaleconomic actor approach of increasing thecosts has little impact on reducing the probabilityof engagement in the informal economy. The paperconcludes by calling for greater emphasis onimproving the tax morale of the urban populationso as to tackle the informal economy in the urbanareas of Europe and beyond.

  13. An investigation of the role of China's urban population on coal consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michieka, Nyakundi M.; Fletcher, Jerald J.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the causal relationship between urban population, real GDP, electricity production and coal consumption in China for the period 1971–2009. Using a vector autoregression framework and a modified version of the Granger (1969) causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (J. Econ. 66 (1995) 225), the results suggest that there is causality running from GDP to coal consumption. The variance decomposition analysis report that urban population and coal affect electricity production variability over the forecast period. We also find that increasing urban population may negatively affect China's GDP over time. Policy measures aimed at influencing GDP could ultimately affect coal consumption. - Highlights: ► We find Granger Causality running from GDP to coal consumption. ► China can mitigate the adverse environmental effects of coal by altering GDP path. ► We find Granger Causality running from urbanization to electricity production. ► China needs to find other sources of energy to cater for growing electricity demand. ► Increasing urban population may slow economic growth due to overcrowding in cities.

  14. Geo-ethical dimension of community's safety: rural and urban population vulnerability analysis methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostyuchenko, Yuriy; Movchan, Dmytro; Kopachevsky, Ivan; Yuschenko, Maxim

    2016-04-01

    Modern world based on relations more than on causalities, so communicative, socio-economic, and socio-cultural issues are important to understand nature of risks and to make correct, ethical decisions. Today major part of risk analysts declared new nature of modern risks. We faced coherent or systemic risks, realization of which leads to domino effect, unexpected growing of losses and fatalities. This type of risks originated by complicated nature of heterogeneous environment, close interconnection of engineering networks, and changing structure of society. Heterogeneous multi-agent environment generates systemic risks, which requires analyze multi-source data with sophisticated tools. Formal basis for analysis of this type of risks is developed during last 5-7 years. But issues of social fairness, ethics, and education require further development. One aspect of analysis of social issues of risk management is studied in this paper. Formal algorithm for quantitative analysis of multi-source data analysis is proposed. As it was demonstrated, using proposed methodological base and the algorithm, it is possible to obtain regularized spatial-temporal distribution of investigated parameters over whole observation period with rectified reliability and controlled uncertainty. The result of disaster data analysis demonstrates that about half of direct disaster damage might be caused by social factors: education, experience and social behaviour. Using data presented also possible to estimate quantitative parameters of the losses distributions: a relation between education, age, experience, and losses; as well as vulnerability (in terms of probable damage) toward financial status in current social density. It is demonstrated that on wide-scale range an education determines risk perception and so vulnerability of societies. But on the local level there are important heterogeneities. Land-use and urbanization structure influencing to vulnerability essentially. The way to

  15. Estimation of Bimodal Urban Link Travel Time Distribution and Its Applications in Traffic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuxiong Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicles travelling on urban streets are heavily influenced by traffic signal controls, pedestrian crossings, and conflicting traffic from cross streets, which would result in bimodal travel time distributions, with one mode corresponding to travels without delays and the other travels with delays. A hierarchical Bayesian bimodal travel time model is proposed to capture the interrupted nature of urban traffic flows. The travel time distributions obtained from the proposed model are then considered to analyze traffic operations and estimate travel time distribution in real time. The advantage of the proposed bimodal model is demonstrated using empirical data, and the results are encouraging.

  16. An ELM-Based Approach for Estimating Train Dwell Time in Urban Rail Traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-jun Chu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Dwell time estimation plays an important role in the operation of urban rail system. On this specific problem, a range of models based on either polynomial regression or microsimulation have been proposed. However, the generalization performance of polynomial regression models is limited and the accuracy of existing microsimulation models is unstable. In this paper, a new dwell time estimation model based on extreme learning machine (ELM is proposed. The underlying factors that may affect urban rail dwell time are analyzed first. Then, the relationships among different factors are extracted and modeled by ELM neural networks, on basis of which an overall estimation model is proposed. At last, a set of observed data from Beijing subway is used to illustrate the proposed method and verify its overall performance.

  17. A Population-Based Assessment of Heartburn in Urban Black Americans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedenberg, Frank K.; Makipour, Kian; Palit, Amiya; Shah, Sweetang; Vanar, Vishwas; Richter, Joel E.

    2013-01-01

    Background Prevalence data for heartburn in the urban Black American community is lacking. In order to estimate prevalence for this community we analyzed data from an ongoing cohort study in progress at our hospital. Comprehensive interviews allowed for exploration of factors associated with heartburn. Methods Complex, stratified sampling design. Survey invitations are hand delivered to random blocks in a single zip code tabulation area. One member per eligible household is invited to complete a computer-based survey. Heartburn was defined as ≥ 3 days/week of symptoms as defined by the Montreal Definition and Classification of GERD. Scaling and weighting factors were utilized to estimate population-level prevalence. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent predictor variables for heartburn. Results Enrolled 379 participants corresponding to a weighted sample size of 22,409 (20,888–23,930) citizens. Demographic characteristics of the sample closely matched those of the entire targeted population. Overall, the weighted prevalence of heartburn ≥ 3 times per week was 17.6% (16.4%–18.8%). Variables independently associated with heartburn were BMI, daily caloric and fat intake, diabetes mellitus (OR=2.95; 2.59–3.36), cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption (OR=2.55; 2.25–2.89). Factors inversely associated included illicit drug use and increased physical activity. Waist: hip ratio showed no relationship. Conclusions The prevalence of heartburn ≥ 3 times per week is high in the Black American community. Adverse lifestyle behaviors showed particularly important associations. Our study needs to be replicated in other communities with similar demographics. PMID:23237330

  18. High cancer-related mortality in an urban, predominantly African-American, HIV-infected population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riedel, David J; Mwangi, Evelyn Ivy W; Fantry, Lori E; Alexander, Carla; Hossain, Mian B; Pauza, C David; Redfield, Robert R; Gilliam, Bruce L

    2013-04-24

    To determine mortality associated with a new cancer diagnosis in an urban, predominantly African-American, HIV-infected population. Retrospective cohort study. All HIV-infected patients diagnosed with cancer between 1 January 2000 and 30 June 2010 were reviewed. Mortality was examined using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards models. There were 470 cases of cancer among 447 patients. Patients were predominantly African-American (85%) and male (79%). Non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs, 69%) were more common than AIDS-defining cancers (ADCs, 31%). Cumulative cancer incidence increased significantly over the study period. The majority (55.9%) was taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) at cancer diagnosis or started afterward (26.9%); 17.2% never received ART. Stage 3 or 4 cancer was diagnosed in 67%. There were 226 deaths during 1096 person years of follow-up, yielding an overall mortality rate of 206 per 1000 person years. The cumulative mortality rate at 30 days, 1 year, and 2 years was 6.5, 32.2, and 41.4%, respectively. Mortality was similar between patients on ART whether they started before or after the cancer diagnosis but was higher in patients who never received ART. In patients with a known cause of death, 68% were related to progression of the underlying cancer. In a large cohort of urban, predominantly African-American patients with HIV and cancer, many patients presented with late-stage cancer. There was substantial 30-day and 2-year mortality, although ART had a significant mortality benefit. Deaths were most often caused by progression of cancer and not from another HIV-related or AIDS-related event.

  19. Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, E.

    2012-06-01

    Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

  20. Perception of the Local Population toward Urban Forests in Municipality of Aerodrom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aneta Blazevska

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: With the development of both society and economy, environmental issues have become a more popular topic. In recent decades both the role and perception of urban forests have changed regarding recreational and environmental aspects on both a local and global level. This coupled with urbanization places great importance on how people see and value the forests in an urban and peri-urban setting. Visitors are not a homogeneous category and hence have different needs and perceptions of urban and peri-urban green spaces. The study aims to understand the visitors` perception from municipality Aerodrom towards urban forests and their recreational use, benefits, preferences and perception regarding management activities of urban forests. Material and Methods: The method used for the research is qualitative with semi-structured questionnaire which was conducted face to face. Gathered data were analyzed by Excel and after that were presented in tables and graphs for better review of the results. The study area was municipality of Aerodrom which has the biggest space under urban forests per capita in Skopje. Results and Conclusion: Results have shown that all respondents have permanent residence in the municipality of Aerodrom, located in different settlements and with the length of stay mainly between 5 to 40 years. There is a dominance of female population and respondent’s age over 40 in the research. Results also showed that the average number of visit in urban forests by respondents during the week is three times. Regarding the meaning and association of term urban forests, results showed that majority of respondents have a clear and concise perception, and mainly this term for them is association on park and greenery, a nice decorated environment and place for walk. When it comes to the way how current situation with urban forest can be improved almost all of the respondents highlighted it can be through the following things

  1. The role of population density on the impact of urbaniza-tion on GHG emissions in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yonghong; Gao, Chaochao; Lu, Yingying

    2017-04-01

    Urbanization directly drives rural to urban population migration and indirectly causes west to east migration in China, two phenomena that may significantly impact China's greenhouse gas emissions given its huge population and vast difference between the western rural and eastern urban areas. These two phenomena were analyzed by using emissions as a per capita term, and extending the impact from the traditional urbanization rate effect to include population density effect. The results show that population density has actually been the dominant demographic player in changing per capita emissions for the past two decades in China, and its elasticity changed from positive in economically less-developed provinces to negative for the developed provinces. This study provides a new perspective in the study of the relationship between urbanization and greenhouse gas emissions, and the results indicate that population density change should be taken into account to accurately assess the impact of urbanization.

  2. Patient satisfaction with community pharmacy: comparing urban and suburban chain-pharmacy populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malewski, David F; Ream, Aimrie; Gaither, Caroline A

    2015-01-01

    Patient satisfaction with pharmaceutical care can be a strong predictor of medication and other health-related outcomes. Less understood is the role that location of pharmacies in urban or suburban environments plays in patient satisfaction with pharmacy and pharmacist services. The purpose of this study was to serve as a pilot examining urban and suburban community pharmacy populations for similarities and differences in patient satisfaction. Community pharmacy patients were asked to self-administer a 30-question patient satisfaction survey. Fifteen questions addressed their relationship with the pharmacist, 10 questions addressed satisfaction and accessibility of the pharmacy, and five questions addressed financial concerns. Five urban and five suburban pharmacies agreed to participate. Data analysis included descriptive statistics and chi-square analysis. Most patients reported high levels of satisfaction. Satisfaction with pharmacist relationship and service was 70% or higher with no significant differences between locations. There were significant differences between the urban and suburban patients regarding accessibility of pharmacy services, customer service and some patient/pharmacist trust issues. The significant differences between patient satisfaction in the suburban and urban populations warrant a larger study with more community pharmacies in other urban, suburban and rural locations to better understand and validate study findings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Delays in accessing electroconvulsive therapy: a comparison between two urban and two rural populations in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Natalie E

    2015-10-01

    A comparison of the timing, rates and characteristics of electroconvulsive therapy use between urban and rural populations. The medical records of patients who received an acute course of electroconvulsive therapy at two rural and two urban psychiatric hospitals in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, in 2010 were reviewed retrospectively. Main outcome measures were the time from symptom onset, diagnosis and admission to commencing electroconvulsive therapy. Rates of use of electroconvulsive therapy were also compared between rural and urban hospitals using NSW statewide data. There was a significant delay in the time it took for rural patients to receive electroconvulsive therapy compared with urban patients when measured both from the time of symptom onset and from when they received a diagnosis. There were corresponding delays in the time taken for rural patients to be admitted to hospital compared with urban patients. There was no difference in the time it took to commence electroconvulsive therapy once a patient was admitted to hospital. NSW statewide urban-rural comparisons showed rates of electroconvulsive therapy treatment were significantly higher in urban hospitals. Patients in rural areas receive electroconvulsive therapy later in their acute illness due to delays in being admitted to hospital. The rate of use of electroconvulsive therapy also differs geographically. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

  4. Seasonal Differences in Determinants of Time Location Patterns in an Urban Population: A Large Population-Based Study in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sewon; Lee, Kiyoung

    2017-06-22

    Time location patterns are a significant factor for exposure assessment models of air pollutants. Factors associated with time location patterns in urban populations are typically due to high air pollution levels in urban areas. The objective of this study was to determine the seasonal differences in time location patterns in two urban cities. A Time Use Survey of Korean Statistics (KOSTAT) was conducted in the summer, fall, and winter of 2014. Time location data from Seoul and Busan were collected, together with demographic information obtained by diaries and questionnaires. Determinants of the time spent at each location were analyzed by multiple linear regression and the stepwise method. Seoul and Busan participants had similar time location profiles over the three seasons. The time spent at own home, other locations, workplace/school and during walk were similar over the three seasons in both the Seoul and Busan participants. The most significant time location pattern factors were employment status, age, gender, monthly income, and spouse. Season affected the time spent at the workplace/school and other locations in the Seoul participants, but not in the Busan participants. The seasons affected each time location pattern of the urban population slightly differently, but overall there were few differences.

  5. Seasonal Differences in Determinants of Time Location Patterns in an Urban Population: A Large Population-Based Study in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sewon Lee

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Time location patterns are a significant factor for exposure assessment models of air pollutants. Factors associated with time location patterns in urban populations are typically due to high air pollution levels in urban areas. The objective of this study was to determine the seasonal differences in time location patterns in two urban cities. A Time Use Survey of Korean Statistics (KOSTAT was conducted in the summer, fall, and winter of 2014. Time location data from Seoul and Busan were collected, together with demographic information obtained by diaries and questionnaires. Determinants of the time spent at each location were analyzed by multiple linear regression and the stepwise method. Seoul and Busan participants had similar time location profiles over the three seasons. The time spent at own home, other locations, workplace/school and during walk were similar over the three seasons in both the Seoul and Busan participants. The most significant time location pattern factors were employment status, age, gender, monthly income, and spouse. Season affected the time spent at the workplace/school and other locations in the Seoul participants, but not in the Busan participants. The seasons affected each time location pattern of the urban population slightly differently, but overall there were few differences.

  6. Strategies to reduce exclusion among populations living in urban slum settlements in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Sabina Faiz

    2009-08-01

    The health and rights of populations living in informal or slum settlements are key development issues of the twenty-first century. As of 2007, the majority of the world's population lives in urban areas. More than one billion of these people, or one in three city-dwellers, live in inadequate housing with no or a few basic resources. In Bangladesh, urban slum settlements tend to be located in low-lying, flood-prone, poorly-drained areas, having limited formal garbage disposal and minimal access to safe water and sanitation. These areas are severely crowded, with 4-5 people living in houses of just over 100 sq feet. These conditions of high density of population and poor sanitation exacerbate the spread of diseases. People living in these areas experience social, economic and political exclusion, which bars them from society's basic resources. This paper overviews policies and actions that impact the level of exclusion of people living in urban slum settlements in Bangladesh, with a focus on improving the health and rights of the urban poor. Despite some strategies adopted to ensure better access to water and health, overall, the country does not have a comprehensive policy for urban slum residents, and the situation remains bleak.

  7. Strategies to Reduce Exclusion among Populations Living in Urban Slum Settlements in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    The health and rights of populations living in informal or slum settlements are key development issues of the twenty-first century. As of 2007, the majority of the world's population lives in urban areas. More than one billion of these people, or one in three city-dwellers, live in inadequate housing with no or a few basic resources. In Bangladesh, urban slum settlements tend to be located in low-lying, flood-prone, poorly-drained areas, having limited formal garbage disposal and minimal access to safe water and sanitation. These areas are severely crowded, with 4–5 people living in houses of just over 100 sq feet. These conditions of high density of population and poor sanitation exacerbate the spread of diseases. People living in these areas experience social, economic and political exclusion, which bars them from society's basic resources. This paper overviews policies and actions that impact the level of exclusion of people living in urban slum settlements in Bangladesh, with a focus on improving the health and rights of the urban poor. Despite some strategies adopted to ensure better access to water and health, overall, the country does not have a comprehensive policy for urban slum residents, and the situation remains bleak. PMID:19761090

  8. Estimating Urban Traffic Patterns through Probabilistic Interconnectivity of Road Network Junctions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ed Manley

    Full Text Available The emergence of large, fine-grained mobility datasets offers significant opportunities for the development and application of new methodologies for transportation analysis. In this paper, the link between routing behaviour and traffic patterns in urban areas is examined, introducing a method to derive estimates of traffic patterns from a large collection of fine-grained routing data. Using this dataset, the interconnectivity between road network junctions is extracted in the form of a Markov chain. This representation encodes the probability of the successive usage of adjacent road junctions, encoding routes as flows between decision points rather than flows along road segments. This network of functional interactions is then integrated within a modified Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC framework, adapted for the estimation of urban traffic patterns. As part of this approach, the data-derived links between major junctions influence the movement of directed random walks executed across the network to model origin-destination journeys. The simulation process yields estimates of traffic distribution across the road network. The paper presents an implementation of the modified MCMC approach for London, United Kingdom, building an MCMC model based on a dataset of nearly 700000 minicab routes. Validation of the approach clarifies how each element of the MCMC framework contributes to junction prediction performance, and finds promising results in relation to the estimation of junction choice and minicab traffic distribution. The paper concludes by summarising the potential for the development and extension of this approach to the wider urban modelling domain.

  9. Toward a Multi-City Framework for Urban GHG Estimation in the United States: Methods, Uncertainties, and Future Goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, K. L.; Callahan, W.; Davis, K. J.; Dickerson, R. R.; Duren, R. M.; Gurney, K. R.; Karion, A.; Keeling, R. F.; Kim, J.; Lauvaux, T.; Miller, C. E.; Shepson, P. B.; Turnbull, J. C.; Weiss, R. F.; Whetstone, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    City and State governments are increasingly interested in mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to improve sustainability within their jurisdictions. Estimation of urban GHG emissions remains an active research area with many sources of uncertainty. To support the effort of improving measurement of trace gas emissions in city environments, several federal agencies along with academic, research, and private entities have been working within a handful of domestic metropolitan areas to improve both (1) the assessment of GHG emissions accuracy using a variety of measurement technologies, and (2) the tools that can better assess GHG inventory data at urban mitigation scales based upon these measurements. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) activities have focused on three areas, or testbeds: Indianapolis (INFLUX experiment), Los Angeles (the LA Megacities project), and the Northeastern Corridor areas encompassing Washington and Baltimore (the NEC/BW GHG Measurements project). These cities represent diverse meteorological, terrain, demographic, and emissions characteristics having a broad range of complexities. To date this research has involved multiple measurement systems and integrated observing approaches, all aimed at advancing development of a robust, science-base upon which higher accuracy quantification approaches can rest. Progress toward such scientifically robust, widely-accepted emissions quantification methods will rely upon continuous performance assessment. Such assessment is challenged by the complexities of cities themselves (e.g., population, urban form) along with the many variables impacting a city's technological ability to estimate its GHG emissions (e.g., meteorology, density of observations). We present the different NIST testbeds and a proposal to initiate conceptual development of a reference framework supporting the comparison of multi-city GHG emissions estimates. Such a reference framework has potential to provide

  10. Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwindt, Adam R.; Winkelman, Dana L.

    2016-01-01

    Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L−1 and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

  11. Estimation of the Impact of Traveler Information Apps on Urban Air Quality Improvement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenke Huang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid growth of vehicle population and vehicle miles traveled, automobile emission has become a severe issue in the metropolitan cities of China. There are policies that concentrate on the management of emission sources. However, improving the operation of the transportation system through apps on mobile devices, especially navigation apps, may have a unique role in promoting urban air quality. Real-time traveler information can not only help travelers avoid traffic congestion, but also advise them to adjust their departure time, mode, or route, or even to cancel trips. Will such changes in personal travel patterns have a significant impact in decreasing emissions? If so, to what extent will they impact urban air quality? The aim of this study is to determine how urban traffic emission is affected by the use of navigation apps. With this work, we attempt to answer the question of whether the real-time traffic information provided by navigation apps can help to improve urban air quality. Some of these findings may provide references for the formulation of urban traffic and environmental policies. Keywords: Real-time traffic information, Mobile devices, Environmental benefits, Agent-based model

  12. Differential associations of urbanicity and income with physical activity in adults in urbanizing China: findings from the population-based China Health and Nutrition Survey 1991-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attard, Samantha M; Howard, Annie-Green; Herring, Amy H; Zhang, Bing; Du, Shufa; Aiello, Allison E; Popkin, Barry M; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

    2015-12-12

    High urbanicity and income are risk factors for cardiovascular-related chronic diseases in low- and middle-income countries, perhaps due to low physical activity (PA) in urban, high income areas. Few studies have examined differences in PA over time according to income and urbanicity in a country experiencing rapid urbanization. We used data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, a population-based cohort of Chinese adults (n = 20,083; ages 18-75y) seen a maximum of 7 times from 1991-2009. We used sex-stratified, zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to examine occupational, domestic, leisure, travel, and total PA in Chinese adults according to year, urbanicity, income, and the interactions among urbanicity, income, and year, controlling for age and region of China. We showed larger mean temporal PA declines for individuals living in relatively low urbanicity areas (1991: 500 MET-hours/week; 2009: 300 MET-hours/week) compared to high urbanicity areas (1991: 200 MET-hours/week; 2009: 125 MET-hours/week). In low urbanicity areas, the association between income and total PA went from negative in 1991 (p Leisure PA was the only domain of PA that increased over time, but >95% of individuals in low urbanicity areas reported zero leisure PA at each time point. Our findings show changing associations for income and urbanicity with PA over 18 years of urbanization. Total PA was lower for individuals living in more versus less urban areas at all time points. However, these differences narrowed over time, which may relate to increases in individual-level income in less urban areas of China with urbanization. Low-income individuals in higher urbanicity areas are a particularly critical group to target to increase PA in China.

  13. Daily intake estimation of phenolic compounds in the Spanish population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inma Navarro González

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Phenolic compounds are a large group of molecules present in plants with a diversity of chemical structures and biological activity. The objective of this study was to quantify the intake of phenolic compounds of the Spanish population. Material and Methods: The most consumed foods from vegetal origin in Spain were selected. These were picked up in the National Survey of Spanish Dietary Intake (ENIDE of 2011, edited by AESAN (Spanish Agency for Food Safety and Nutrition as a basis for quantifying the intake of phenolic compounds of Spaniards using the Phenol-Explorer database. Results: This database has allowed to estimate the average intake of polyphenols per day of Spaniards, which is 1365.1mg. Conclusions: The average intake of total polyphenols of Spaniards could have a protective effect against the mortality rate and exercise a preventive function on some chronic diseases along with other healthy lifestyle habits.

  14. The population conundrums and some implications for urban development in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrić Jasna

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Population development may reveal either a potential or constraint on functional labour markets and spatial development of the territory in concern. The first results of the 2011 Census in Serbia depict a rather bleak demographic situation, which is only the continuation of population trends from the late 20th and beginning of the 21st century, substantially fuelled by dynamic political and socioeconomic processes featuring Serbia in the past few decades. The focus is on demographic changes in relation to three correlated aspects: 1 intensive ageing process; 2 depopulation and negative natural growth; and 3 migratory movements - population exodus. This paper addresses in particular the spatial consequences and institutional aspects of recent demographic changes and their reflection on urban areas in Serbia. In the past, population movements from rural to urban areas used to colour much of the migratory balance map of the country, however this situation changed due to exhaustion of the ‘traditional’ demographic reservoirs. Still, urban primacy of the capital city Belgrade has been even intensified with the recent demographic movements, or more precisely, a tissue of the two largest cities in relative proximity - Belgrade and Novi Sad is hypertrophied in a demographic sense. Other urban settlements in Serbia, especially the smaller towns, which are numerous but demographically shrinking, have not been empowered enough to substantiate better links with smaller and larger settlements within urban-rural interface, and their role has been challenged in that respect. Demographic changes, which affect urban growth or decline, are largely to do with border effects, economic and social gaps, educational opportunities, and search of certain ‘urban lifestyles’. The latter is particularly stressed regarding the process of ‘second demographic transition’ which encompassed Serbia and is manifested by changes in the family domain, viz. partnership

  15. PREVALENCE OF ANAEMIA IN A SEMI-URBAN POPULATION OF PREGNANT WOMEN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suganthi Ramalingam

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION Anaemia is a serious and prominent problem in the developing countries. This study evaluates the prevalence of anaemia in pregnant women attending the outpatient clinic in a semi-urban hospital for a period of six months. MATERIALS AND METHODS Data from a sample of 500 pregnant women was collected and the patients were screened for anaemia on their booking visit in KFMS&R for a period of six months from March-August 2015. Haemoglobin was estimated by cyanmethaemoglobin method using Systronic photocolorimeter on their first antenatal visit. The degree of anaemia was categorised according to ICMR datamild (10-10.99 g/dL, moderate (7-9.99 g/dL, severe (<7 g/dL. RESULTS It was observed that the prevalence of anaemia was 51.8% in the population under study. The prevalence of mild anaemia was 18.53%, that of moderate anaemia was 63.70% and that of severe anaemia was 17.76%. It was also noticed that the prevalence of anaemia was higher in young pregnant women between 17-21 years of age (63.26%. CONCLUSION Anaemia continues to be a major health problem in India and prevention and early diagnosis will significantly reduce maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality.

  16. Mathematical modeling of an urban pigeon population subject to local management strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haidar, I; Alvarez, I; Prévot, A C

    2017-06-01

    This paper addresses the issue of managing urban pigeon population using some possible actions that make it reach a density target with respect to socio-ecological constraints. A mathematical model describing the dynamic of this population is introduced. This model incorporates the effect of some regulatory actions on the dynamic of this population. We use mathematical viability theory, which provides a framework to study compatibility between dynamics and state constraints. The viability study shows when and how it is possible to regulate the pigeon population with respect to the constraints. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Urban soil biomonitoring by beetle and earthworm populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janossy, L.; Bitto, A. [ELTE Univ., Budapest (Hungary)

    1995-12-31

    Two macro invertebrate groups were chosen for biomonitoring environmental changes. The beetle population was pitfall trapped (five month in 1994) at five downtown sites (parks) of Budapest and in a hilly original woodland as a control site 33km NW of Budapest. Earthworms were collected by using formol solution. Five heavy metals were measured (Pb, Co, Hg, Zn, Cu) in the upper soil layer at the same sampling sites. Pb, Hg, Zn and Cu was over the tolerable limit in a park near the railway, extreme high Pb (530 mg/kg dry soil) and Zn content was measured in one park. Roads are also salted in wintertime. The number of beetle species in the downtown parks varied 10 to 22 (226--462 specimen). Near to the edge of the city up to 45 beetle species were found in a park with 1,027 specimen. In the woodland area 52 beetle species with 1,061 specimen were found. Less dominance and higher specific diversity showed the direction from downtown to woodland. Only 2 or 3 cosmopolitan earthworm species existed in downtown parks with 30--35 specimen/m{sup 2}, in the control woodland area 7 mostly endemic earthworm species were found with 74 specimens/m{sup 2}. But earthworm biomass was higher in three well fertilized parks (43--157 g/m{sup 2}), than in the original woodland (25-g/m{sup 2}). The beetle populations seem to be good tools for biomonitoring. Earthworms are susceptible to environmental changes but they also strongly depend on the leaf litter and the organic matter of the soil. The change in the animal populations is the result of summarized environmental impacts in such a big city like Budapest.

  18. Estimating the Effects of Conversion of Agricultural Land to Urban Land on Deep Percolation of Irrigation Water in the Grand Valley, Western Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayo, John W.

    2008-01-01

    The conversion of agricultural land to urban residential land is associated with rapid population growth in the Grand Valley of western Colorado. Information regarding the effects of this land-use conversion on deep percolation, irrigation-water application, and associated salt loading to the Colorado River is needed to support water-resource planning and conservation efforts. The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) assessed deep percolation and estimated salt loading derived from irrigated agricultural lands in the Grand Valley in a 1985 to 2002 monitoring and evaluation study (NRCS M&E). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado River Salinity Control Forum and the Mesa Conservation District, quantified the current (2005-2006) deep percolation and irrigation-water application characteristics of 1/4-acre residential lots and 5-acre estates, urban parks, and urban orchard grass fields in the Grand Valley, and compared the results to NRCS M&E results from alfalfa-crop sites. In addition, pond seepage from three irrigation-water holding ponds was estimated. Salt loading was estimated for the urban study results and the NRCS M&E results by using standard salt-loading factors. A daily soil-moisture balance calculation technique was used at all urban study irrigated sites. Deep percolation was defined as any water infiltrating below the top 12 inches of soil. Deep percolation occurred when the soil-moisture balance in the first 12 inches of soil exceeded the field capacity for the soil type at each site. Results were reported separately for urban study bluegrass-only sites and for all-vegetation type (bluegrass, native plants, and orchard grass) sites. Deep percolation and irrigation-water application also were estimated for a complete irrigation season at three subdivisions by using mean site data from each subdivision. It was estimated that for the three subdivisions, 37 percent of the developed acreage was irrigated (the balance

  19. Seroprevalence of Scrub Typhus, Typhus, and Spotted Fever Among Rural and Urban Populations of Northern Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trung, N.V.; Hoi, L.T.; Thuong, N.T.H.; Toan, T.K.; Huong, T.T.K.; Hoa, T.M.; Fox, A.; Kinh, N.V.; Doorn, H.R. van; Wertheim, H.F.L.; Bryant, J.E.; Nadjm, B.

    2017-01-01

    AbstractRickettsial infections are recognized as important causes of fever throughout southeast Asia. Herein, we determined the seroprevalence to rickettsioses within rural and urban populations of northern Vietnam. Prevalence of individuals with evidence of prior rickettsial infections (IgG

  20. Patterns of Vaginal, Oral, and Anal Sexual Intercourse in an Urban Seventh-Grade Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markham, Christine M.; Peskin, Melissa Fleschler; Addy, Robert C.; Baumler, Elizabeth R.; Tortolero, Susan R.

    2009-01-01

    Background: This study examines the prevalence of vaginal, oral, and anal intercourse among a population of urban, public middle school students, the characteristics of early sexual initiators, and the sequence of sexual initiation. Such data are limited for early adolescents. Methods: A total of 1279 seventh-grade students (57.3% female, 43.6%…

  1. Natural areas and urban populations: communication and environmental education challenges and actions in outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah J. Chavez

    2005-01-01

    Challenges, opportunities, and actions exist in areas where large urban populations interface with natural areas, such as outdoor recreation sites in southern California. Challenges in the interface include intense recreation use, public safety issues, and complex information strategies. Research results on communications and environmental education offer opportunities...

  2. Influence of human population movements on urban climate of Beijing during the Chinese New Year holiday

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jingyong; Wu, Lingyun

    2017-03-01

    The population movements for the Chinese New Year (CNY) celebrations, known as the world’s largest yearly migration of human beings, have grown rapidly in the past several decades. The massive population outflows from urban areas largely reduce anthropogenic heat release and modify some other processes, and may thus have noticeable impacts on urban climate of large cities in China. Here, we use Beijing as an example to present observational evidence for such impacts over the period of 1990-2014. Our results show a significant cooling trend of up to 0.55 °C per decade, particularly at the nighttime during the CNY holiday relative to the background period. The average nighttime cooling effect during 2005-2014 reaches 0.94 °C relative to the 1990s, significant at the 99% confidence level. The further analysis supports that the cooling during the CNY holiday is attributable primarily to the population outflow of Beijing. These findings illustrate the importance of population movements in influencing urban climate despite certain limitations. As the world is becoming more mobile and increasingly urban, more efforts are called for to understand the role of human mobility at various spatial and temporal scales.

  3. The importance of resident environmental awareness in conservation of urban wildlife populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    The proximity of humans and wildlife to each other along the wildland-urban interface results in constant potential conflict between human activity and wildlife populations. Since 2002, California biologists have observed a drastic increase in carnivore mortalities that are asso...

  4. Microsporum spp. onychomycosis: disease presentation, risk factors and treatment responses in an urban population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erick Martínez

    2014-03-01

    Conclusion: This is the largest reported series of Microsporum onychomycosis and demonstrates such a disease in an urban population. In 27.78% of the cases risk factors for infection were associated to comorbid states. We also report the first 2 cases of successfully treated M. canis onychomycosis with photodynamic therapy and a rare case of M. canis associated dermatophytoma.

  5. Prevalence of psychiatric and physical morbidity in an urban geriatric population

    OpenAIRE

    Seby, K.; Chaudhury, Suprakash; Chakraborty, Rudraprosad

    2011-01-01

    Background: With a rapidly increasing population of older aged people, epidemiological data regarding the prevalence of mental and physical illnesses are urgently required for proper health planning. However, there is a scarcity of such data from India. Aims: To study the frequency and pattern of psychiatric morbidity present and the association of physical illness with psychiatric morbidity in an elderly urban population. Settings and Design: Cross-sectional, epidemiological study. Materials...

  6. Estimating population health risk from low-level environmental radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, D.R.

    1980-01-01

    Although incidence of respiratory cancer is directly related to inhalation of radon and radon daughters, the magnitude of the actual risk is uncertain for members of the general population exposed for long periods to low-level concentrations. Currently, any such estimate of the risk must rely on data obtained through previous studies of underground-miner populations. Several methods of risk analysis have resulted from these studies. Since the breathing atmospheres, smoking patterns, and physiology are different between miners and the general public, overestimates of lung cancer risk to the latter may have resulted. Strong evidence exists to support the theory of synergistic action between alpha radiation and other agents, and therefore a modified relative risk model was developed to predict lung cancer risks to the general public. The model considers latent period, observation period, age dependency, and inherent risks from smoking or geographical location. A test of the model showed excellent agreement with results of the study of Czechoslovakian uranium miners, for which the necessary time factors were available. The risk model was also used to predict lung cancer incidence among residents of homes on reclaimed Florida phosphate lands, and results of this analysis indicate that over the space of many years, the increased incidence of lung cancer due to elevated radon levels may be indisgtinguishable from those due to other causes

  7. Estimation of population doses from stomach mass screening, 1975

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashizume, T; Kato, Y; Maruyama, T [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Kamata, R; Urahashi, S

    1977-06-01

    The population dose from mass photofluorography of stomach have been estimated on the basis of nation wide radiological survey. The number of photofluorographic examinations was 2.38 million for male and 1.74 million for female, with a total of 4.12 million. The gonad doses were determined with an ionization chamber, using a tissue equivalent phantom. The gonad dose for male was 10.4 mrad per examination and for female was 150 mrad per examination. The active bone marrow doses at 32 points of bone marrow in the whole body were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeter. The mean marrow dose per photofluorographic examination was 450 mrad for male and 390 mrad for female. The child expectancy factor and the leukemia significant factor were calculated based on the Vital Statistics 1975. The genetically significant dose (GSD) and per caput mean marrow dose (CMD) were calculated by the formulae presented from the United Nations Scientific Comittee of Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). The resultant GSD was 0.15 mrad per person per year. The CMD was 16.5 mrad per person per year. The leukemia significant dose (LSD) was determined by adopting a weight factor, that is leukemia significant factor. The resultant LSD was 14.5 mrad per person per year. These population doses were compared with those from diagnostic medical x-ray examinations in 1974.

  8. Estimates of genetic variability in mutated population of triticum aestivum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larik, A.S.; Siddiqui, K.A.; Soomoro, A.H.

    1980-01-01

    M 2 populations of four cultivars of Mexican origin (Mexipak-65, Nayab, Pak-70 and 6134 x C-271) and two locally bred cultivars (H-68 and C-591) of bread wheat, triticum aestivum (2n = 6x = AA BB DD) derived from six irradiation treatments (gamma rays 60sub(Co); 10, 15 and 20 kR and fast neutrons; 300, 600 and 900 RADS) were critically examined for spike length, spikelets per spike, grains per spike and grain yield. Genotypes varied significantly (p>=0.01) for all the characters. Irradiation treatment were instrumental in creating significant variability for all the characters, indicating that varieties did not perform uniformly across different gamma rays as well as fast neutron treatments. In the M 2 generation there was a considerable increase in variance for all the four metrical traits. Comparisons were made between controls and treated populations. Mutagenic treatments shifted the mean values mostly towards the negative direction, but the shift was not unidirectional nor equally effective for all the characters. The differences in mean values and the nature of variability observed in M 2 indicated a possible preference of selection M 3 generation. In general, estimates of genetic variability and heritability (b.s) increased with increasing doses of gamma rays and fast neutrons. Genetic advance also exhibited similar trend. The observed variability can be utilized in the evolution of new varieties. (authors)

  9. Estimation of exposure to furan in the Spanish population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesías, Marta; Guerra-Hernández, Eduardo; García-Villanova, Belén

    2012-02-01

    The presence of furan in foods has received recent attention because of its association with harmful effects to human health. This compound, which is originated as a consequence of thermal treatment, is mainly found in canned, jarred, toasted and fried foods. The aim of this study was to estimate the exposure to furan in the Spanish population and to study the evolution of furan content in the main categories of foods in recent years, taking into account changes in dietary patterns. With respect to exposure to furan in the Spanish population from 2001 to 2009, no large differences were found. The maximum furan exposure recorded in this study (1.95 μg/kg bw/day) is lower than the 'no observable adverse effect level' of 0.08 mg/kg bw/day determined in the studies of experimental animals, and is close to the reported acceptable daily intake of 2 μg/kg bw/day.

  10. Population, behavioural and physiological responses of an urban population of black swans to an intense annual noise event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Catherine J; Jessop, Tim S; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Johnstone, Michele; Feore, Megan; Mulder, Raoul A

    2012-01-01

    Wild animals in urban environments are exposed to a broad range of human activities that have the potential to disturb their life history and behaviour. Wildlife responses to disturbance can range from emigration to modified behaviour, or elevated stress, but these responses are rarely evaluated in concert. We simultaneously examined population, behavioural and hormonal responses of an urban population of black swans Cygnus atratus before, during and after an annual disturbance event involving large crowds and intense noise, the Australian Formula One Grand Prix. Black swan population numbers were lowest one week before the event and rose gradually over the course of the study, peaking after the event, suggesting that the disturbance does not trigger mass emigration. We also found no difference in the proportion of time spent on key behaviours such as locomotion, foraging, resting or self-maintenance over the course of the study. However, basal and capture stress-induced corticosterone levels showed significant variation, consistent with a modest physiological response. Basal plasma corticosterone levels were highest before the event and decreased over the course of the study. Capture-induced stress levels peaked during the Grand Prix and then also declined over the remainder of the study. Our results suggest that even intensely noisy and apparently disruptive events may have relatively low measurable short-term impact on population numbers, behaviour or physiology in urban populations with apparently high tolerance to anthropogenic disturbance. Nevertheless, the potential long-term impact of such disturbance on reproductive success, individual fitness and population health will need to be carefully evaluated.

  11. Population, behavioural and physiological responses of an urban population of black swans to an intense annual noise event.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine J Payne

    Full Text Available Wild animals in urban environments are exposed to a broad range of human activities that have the potential to disturb their life history and behaviour. Wildlife responses to disturbance can range from emigration to modified behaviour, or elevated stress, but these responses are rarely evaluated in concert. We simultaneously examined population, behavioural and hormonal responses of an urban population of black swans Cygnus atratus before, during and after an annual disturbance event involving large crowds and intense noise, the Australian Formula One Grand Prix. Black swan population numbers were lowest one week before the event and rose gradually over the course of the study, peaking after the event, suggesting that the disturbance does not trigger mass emigration. We also found no difference in the proportion of time spent on key behaviours such as locomotion, foraging, resting or self-maintenance over the course of the study. However, basal and capture stress-induced corticosterone levels showed significant variation, consistent with a modest physiological response. Basal plasma corticosterone levels were highest before the event and decreased over the course of the study. Capture-induced stress levels peaked during the Grand Prix and then also declined over the remainder of the study. Our results suggest that even intensely noisy and apparently disruptive events may have relatively low measurable short-term impact on population numbers, behaviour or physiology in urban populations with apparently high tolerance to anthropogenic disturbance. Nevertheless, the potential long-term impact of such disturbance on reproductive success, individual fitness and population health will need to be carefully evaluated.

  12. Population genetics of the olive-winged bulbul (Pycnonotus plumosus) in a tropical urban-fragmented landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Grace S Y; Sadanandan, Keren R; Rheindt, Frank E

    2016-01-01

    With increasing urbanization, urban-fragmented landscapes are becoming more and more prevalent worldwide. Such fragmentation may lead to small, isolated populations that face great threats from genetic factors that affect even avian species with high dispersal propensities. Yet few studies have investigated the population genetics of species living within urban-fragmented landscapes in the Old World tropics, in spite of the high levels of deforestation and fragmentation within this region. We investigated the evolutionary history and population genetics of the olive-winged bulbul (Pycnonotus plumosus) in Singapore, a highly urbanized island which retains landscape.

  13. Iterative Bayesian Estimation of Travel Times on Urban Arterials: Fusing Loop Detector and Probe Vehicle Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kai; Cui, Meng-Ying; Cao, Peng; Wang, Jiang-Bo

    2016-01-01

    On urban arterials, travel time estimation is challenging especially from various data sources. Typically, fusing loop detector data and probe vehicle data to estimate travel time is a troublesome issue while considering the data issue of uncertain, imprecise and even conflicting. In this paper, we propose an improved data fusing methodology for link travel time estimation. Link travel times are simultaneously pre-estimated using loop detector data and probe vehicle data, based on which Bayesian fusion is then applied to fuse the estimated travel times. Next, Iterative Bayesian estimation is proposed to improve Bayesian fusion by incorporating two strategies: 1) substitution strategy which replaces the lower accurate travel time estimation from one sensor with the current fused travel time; and 2) specially-designed conditions for convergence which restrict the estimated travel time in a reasonable range. The estimation results show that, the proposed method outperforms probe vehicle data based method, loop detector based method and single Bayesian fusion, and the mean absolute percentage error is reduced to 4.8%. Additionally, iterative Bayesian estimation performs better for lighter traffic flows when the variability of travel time is practically higher than other periods.

  14. Medical and licit drug use in an urban/rural study population with a refugee background, 7-8 years into resettlement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson Blight, Karin; Persson, Jan-Olov; Ekblad, Solvig; Ekberg, Jan

    2008-01-01

    Objective: Research into medical and licit drug use in resettled refugee populations is scarce, despite the fact that mental health status often has been found to be poorer than in general populations. Hence the aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of self-rated use of medicine and licit drugs among adults who came to Sweden from Bosnia-Herzegovina (1993/94) and who in 2001 were living in either an urban (low employment context) or a rural (high employment context) region (n=4185). Methods: Prevalence was estimated from a cross-sectional questionnaire distributed to a representative sample (n=650) in 2001 (63.5% response rate). Results: The study population estimates of usage of sedatives (26.5%), sleeping tablets (26.2%) and antidepressants (22.3%) did not differ by gender but did so by region, with a higher urban prevalence. The consumption of alcohol (5.1%) and cigarettes (41.0%) did not differ by region but men reported higher alcohol consumption than women. Conclusion: The high consumption of medicine (compared with general populations) raises the question of treatment efficiency and the need for public health attention and evaluation many years after resettlement. Factors to consider for further research with analytic prerequisites concern indications that regional differences may be influenced, not only by urban employment being lower but also by urban/rural differences in prescription rates and/or access to health care; moreover, there might have been a selection to the urban region of older people, with a more vulnerable family situation, and/or poorer mental health. Finally, the overall alcohol (low) and cigarettes (high) consumption in the study population followed prevalence patterns found in Bosnia-Herzegovina rather than in Sweden. PMID:19742286

  15. Population based estimates of non-fatal injuries in the capital of Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saadat, Soheil; Mafi, Mostafa; Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi

    2011-07-31

    Fatal injuries are at the top of the injury pyramid; however, non-fatal injuries are quite common and impose huge medical expenses on the population. Relying on hospital data will underestimate the incidence of non-fatal injuries. The aim of this study was to estimate the annual incidence and out of pocket medical expenses of all injuries in urban population of Tehran (the capital city of Iran). Using the cluster random sampling approach, a household survey of residents of greater Tehran was performed on April 2008. At randomly selected residential locations, interviewers asked one adult person to report all injuries which have occurred during the past year for all household members, as well as the type of injury, place of occurrence, the activity, cause of accidents resulting in injuries, the amount of out of pocket medical expenses for injury, and whether they referred to hospital. This study included 2,450 households residing in Tehran during 2007-8. The annual incidence of all injuries was 188.7 (180.7-196.9), significant injuries needing any medical care was 68.8 (63.7-74.2), fractures was 19.3 (16.6 - 22.4), and injuries resulted in hospitalization was 16.7 (14.2 - 19.6) per 1000 population. The annual incidence of fatal injuries was 33 (7-96) per 100,000 Population. In children aged 15 or less, the annual incidence of all injuries was 137.2 (120.0 - 155.9), significant injuries needing any medical care was 64.2 (52.2 - 78.0), fractures was 21.8 (15.0 - 30.7), and injuries resulted in hospitalization was 6.8 (3.3 - 12.5) per 1000 population. The mean out of pocket medical expense for injuries was 19.9 USD. This population based study showed that the real incidence of non-fatal injuries in the capital of Iran is more than the formal hospital-based estimates. These injuries impose non trivial medical and indirect cost on the community. The out of pocket medical expense of non-fatal injuries to Tehran population is estimated as 27 million USD per year. Effective

  16. [Remote sensing estimation of urban forest carbon stocks based on QuickBird images].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Li-Hua; Zhang, Jie-Cun; Huang, Bo; Wang, Huan-Huan; Yue, Wen-Ze

    2014-10-01

    Urban forest is one of the positive factors that increase urban carbon sequestration, which makes great contribution to the global carbon cycle. Based on the high spatial resolution imagery of QuickBird in the study area within the ring road in Yiwu, Zhejiang, the forests in the area were divided into four types, i. e., park-forest, shelter-forest, company-forest and others. With the carbon stock from sample plot as dependent variable, at the significance level of 0.01, the stepwise linear regression method was used to select independent variables from 50 factors such as band grayscale values, vegetation index, texture information and so on. Finally, the remote sensing based forest carbon stock estimation models for the four types of forest were established. The estimation accuracies for all the models were around 70%, with the total carbon reserve of each forest type in the area being estimated as 3623. 80, 5245.78, 5284.84, 5343.65 t, respectively. From the carbon density map, it was found that the carbon reserves were mainly in the range of 25-35 t · hm(-2). In the future, urban forest planners could further improve the ability of forest carbon sequestration through afforestation and interplanting of trees and low shrubs.

  17. A Hidden Markov Model for Urban-Scale Traffic Estimation Using Floating Car Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaomeng; Peng, Ling; Chi, Tianhe; Li, Mengzhu; Yao, Xiaojing; Shao, Jing

    2015-01-01

    Urban-scale traffic monitoring plays a vital role in reducing traffic congestion. Owing to its low cost and wide coverage, floating car data (FCD) serves as a novel approach to collecting traffic data. However, sparse probe data represents the vast majority of the data available on arterial roads in most urban environments. In order to overcome the problem of data sparseness, this paper proposes a hidden Markov model (HMM)-based traffic estimation model, in which the traffic condition on a road segment is considered as a hidden state that can be estimated according to the conditions of road segments having similar traffic characteristics. An algorithm based on clustering and pattern mining rather than on adjacency relationships is proposed to find clusters with road segments having similar traffic characteristics. A multi-clustering strategy is adopted to achieve a trade-off between clustering accuracy and coverage. Finally, the proposed model is designed and implemented on the basis of a real-time algorithm. Results of experiments based on real FCD confirm the applicability, accuracy, and efficiency of the model. In addition, the results indicate that the model is practicable for traffic estimation on urban arterials and works well even when more than 70% of the probe data are missing.

  18. Canine Gouging: A Taboo Resurfacing in Migrant Urban Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noman, Anila Virani; Wong, Ferranti; Pawar, Ravikiran Ramakrishna

    2015-01-01

    Cosmopolitan cities have become a pool of migrants from different parts of the world, who carry their cultural beliefs and superstitions with them around the globe. Canine gouging is a kind of infant oral mutilation (IOM) which is widely practiced among rural population of Africa where the primary tooth bud of the deciduous canine is enucleated. The belief is that the life threatening illnesses in children like vomiting, diarrhoea, and fevers are caused by worms which infest on tooth buds. This case report is of a 15-year-old Somalian born boy, who presented at the dental institute with intermittent pain in his lower right permanent canine which was associated with a discharging intra oral buccal sinus. The tooth was endodontically treated and then restored with composite. General dental practitioners need to be vigilant when encountered with tooth presenting unusual morphology, unilateral missing tooth, and shift in the midline due to early loss of deciduous/permanent canines. Identification of any such dental mutilation practice will need further counselling of the individual and family members. It is the duty of every dental professional to educate and safeguard the oral and dental health of general public.

  19. Differentiation of African components of ancestry to stratify groups in a case-control study of a Brazilian urban population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silbiger, Vivian N; Hirata, Mario H; Luchessi, Andre D; Genvigir, Fabiana D V; Cerda, Alvaro; Rodrigues, Alice C; Willrich, Maria A V; Arazi, Simone S; Dorea, Egidio L; Bernik, Marcia M S; Faludi, Andre A; Bertolami, Marcelo C; Santos, Carla; Carracedo, Angel; Salas, Antonio; Freire, Ana; Lareu, Maria Victoria; Phillips, Christopher; Porras-Hurtado, Liliana; Fondevila, Manuel; Hirata, Rosario D C

    2012-06-01

    Balancing the subject composition of case and control groups to create homogenous ancestries between each group is essential for medical association studies. We explored the applicability of single-tube 34-plex ancestry informative markers (AIM) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to estimate the African Component of Ancestry (ACA) to design a future case-control association study of a Brazilian urban sample. One hundred eighty individuals (107 case group; 73 control group) self-described as white, brown-intermediate or black were selected. The proportions of the relative contribution of a variable number of ancestral population components were similar between case and control groups. Moreover, the case and control groups demonstrated similar distributions for ACA 0.50 categories. Notably a high number of outlier values (23 samples) were observed among individuals with ACA population. This can be achieved using a straight forward multiplexed AIM-SNPs assay of highly discriminatory ancestry markers.

  20. The Urban-Rural Gradient In Asthma: A Population-Based Study in Northern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Signe Timm

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The early life environment appears to have a persistent impact on asthma risk. We hypothesize that environmental factors related to rural life mediate lower asthma prevalence in rural populations, and aimed to investigate an urban-rural gradient, assessed by place of upbringing, for asthma. The population-based Respiratory Health In Northern Europe (RHINE study includes subjects from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Iceland and Estonia born 1945–1973. The present analysis encompasses questionnaire data on 11,123 RHINE subjects. Six categories of place of upbringing were defined: farm with livestock, farm without livestock, village in rural area, small town, city suburb and inner city. The association of place of upbringing with asthma onset was analysed with Cox regression adjusted for relevant confounders. Subjects growing up on livestock farms had less asthma (8% than subjects growing up in inner cities (11% (hazard ratio 0.72 95% CI 0.57–0.91, and a significant urban-rural gradient was observed across six urbanisation levels (p = 0.02. An urban-rural gradient was only evident among women, smokers and for late-onset asthma. Analyses on wheeze and place of upbringing revealed similar results. In conclusion, this study suggests a protective effect of livestock farm upbringing on asthma development and an urban-rural gradient in a Northern European population.

  1. Prevalence and correlates of fear of falling among elderly population in urban area of Karnataka, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mane, Abhay B; Sanjana, T; Patil, Prabhakar R; Sriniwas, T

    2014-07-01

    Falls are a major public health problem in the elderly population. Fear of falling (FOF) among elderly persons can compromise quality of life by limiting mobility, diminished sense of well-being and reduced social interactions. India is undergoing a demographic transitional phase with urban elderly population of 6.72% in 2001. The major challenge would be on the prevention of falls among them. Hence there is a need to highlight the problems related to fall faced by the elderly in India. To study the prevalence of FOF and its correlates among the elderly population in urban area. 250 elderly subjects above 60 years were randomly selected from urban area and interviewed for FOF using Short Fall Efficacy Scale-I (FES-I), history of falls and risk factors. The prevalence of FOF among the elderly was 33.2%. The significant correlates of FOF were educational status, family type, associated health problems, history of fall in past 6 months, worried of fall again among fallers, fearfulness of fall again among fallers, restriction of daily activities and depression among them. The insignificant correlates were gender and socio-economic status. FOF is a health problem among the elderly living in urban India needs urgent attention. It represents a significant threat to socialization, independence and morbidity or mortality. Knowledge of correlates of FOF may be useful in developing multidimensional strategies to reduce it among elderly.

  2. Comparison of patterns of substance abuse disorders in urban and rural population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morad Rasouli-Azad

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Studies of the prevalence of substance abuse in rural and urban population in different countries revealed variable results regarding to the study method, study population, age group and measuring tools. The purpose of this research is to compare the patterns of substance abuse disorders in urban and rural population in Mashhad.Materials and Method: Two groups consecutively admitted patients who referred to substance treatment clinics of Mashhad, were selected (110 urban and 100 rural patients. Samples were evaluated with structured demographic questionnaire and Structured Clinical Interview (SCID for DSM-IV. Data were analyzed by χ2 and independent t-test.Results: This study showed statistically significant differences between two groups in marital status, education level, monthly income and job. Also the samples were differed in substance type, history of injection and quit, abuse of nicotine, cannabis and alcohol in long life. Conclusion: Rural and urban societies have differences in patterns of substance abuse that can be originated from social-context differences

  3. Cardiovascular risk factors in a Mexican middle-class urban population. The Lindavista Study. Baseline data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meaney, Alejandra; Ceballos-Reyes, Guillermo; Gutiérrez-Salmean, Gabriela; Samaniego-Méndez, Virginia; Vela-Huerta, Agustín; Alcocer, Luis; Zárate-Chavarría, Elisa; Mendoza-Castelán, Emma; Olivares-Corichi, Ivonne; García-Sánchez, Rubén; Martínez-Marroquín, Yolanda; Ramírez-Sánchez, Israel; Meaney, Eduardo

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this communication is to describe the cardiovascular risk factors affecting a Mexican urban middle-class population. A convenience sample of 2602 middle class urban subjects composed the cohort of the Lindavista Study, a prospective study aimed to determine if conventional cardiovascular risks factors have the same prognosis impact as in other populations. For the baseline data, several measurements were done: obesity indexes, smoking, blood pressure, fasting serum glucose, total cholesterol, HDL-c, LDL-c and triglycerides. This paper presents the basal values of this population, which represents a sample of the Mexican growing urban middle-class. The mean age in the sample was 50 years; 59% were females. Around 50% of the entire group were overweighed, while around 24% were obese. 32% smoked; 32% were hypertensive with a 20% rate of controlled pressure. 6% had diabetes, and 14% had impaired fasting glucose; 66% had total cholesterol ≥ 200 mg/dL; 62% showed HDL-c levels150 mg/dL, and 34% levels of LDL-c ≥ 160 mg/dL. Half of the population studied had the metabolic syndrome. These data show a population with a high-risk profile, secondary to the agglomeration of several cardiovascular risk factors. Copyright © 2012 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  4. Urban and rural populations and labour-force structures: current patterns and their implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcoux, A

    1990-01-01

    The discussion of the changing structure in urban and rural areas due to changing migration patterns reflects the effect on crop designation and production, the connection to development and fertility issues, and the labor force structure. Different patterns of migration by sex occur between Ethiopia where female rural-to-urban migration is the dominant trend and Indonesia where males moving to urban areas occurs. When countries are identified as primarily male urban and female rural, the migration pattern is male rural-to-urban and is concentrated in African countries, whereas the reverse with female urban and male rural occurs in Latin America and developed countries. The tendency of the age structure in developed and developing countries is for the concentration of the 20 -49 year olds in urban areas and the under 20 and over 49 in rural areas. It is determined that those under 20 have 3 times greater importance in developing rather than developed countries. While in Tunisia and the Near East the over-age-49 rural population has increased, in Cameroon, Myanmar, and Bangladesh, the rural under-age-30 population has increased suggesting different migration patterns; however, there is insufficient computerized data for analysis of regional world trends. The migration pattern of child bearing age women affects the aging rural population in either of two ways. 1) Women stay and bear children and help with farm production while male migrate, thus increasing the youth and over 50 populations. 2) Whole families move with only the aging remaining. The determinants of migration are complex. When there is inequality in land distribution, the most mobile population are those without land or with very small holdings. If agricultural workers are dependent on a landlord, then migration is decreased. Technology and mechanization which have predominated in the last decades can both displace labor in rural areas when situated next to farms and increase labor when multiple

  5. Estimating urban forest carbon sequestration potential in the southern United States using current remote sensing imagery sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krista Merry; Pete Bettinger; Jacek Siry; J. Michael Bowker

    2015-01-01

    With an increased interest in reducing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, tree planting and maintenance in urban areas has become a viable option for increasing carbon sequestration. Methods for assessing the potential for planting trees within an urban area should allow for quick, inexpensive, and accurate estimations of available land using current remote sensing...

  6. Population genetic structure of urban malaria vector Anopheles stephensi in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Richa; Sharma, Arvind; Kumar, Ashwani; Dube, Madhulika; Gakhar, S K

    2016-04-01

    Malaria is a major public health problem in India because climatic condition and geography of India provide an ideal environment for development of malaria vector. Anopheles stephensi is a major urban malaria vector in India and its control has been hampered by insecticide resistance. In present study population genetic structure of A. stephensi is analyzed at macro geographic level using 13 microsatellite markers. Significantly high genetic differentiation was found in all studied populations with differentiation values (FST) ranging from 0.0398 to 0.1808. The geographic distance was found to be playing a major role in genetic differentiation between different populations. Overall three genetic pools were observed and population of central India was found to be coexisting in two genetic pools. High effective population size (Ne) was found in all the studied populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Modelling the impact of sanitation, population growth and urbanization on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters—a case study for Bangladesh and India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Lucie C.; de Kraker, Jelske; Hofstra, Nynke; Kroeze, Carolien; Medema, Gertjan

    2015-09-01

    Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a global model by Hofstra et al (2013 Sci. Total Environ. 442 10-9) and zoom into Bangladesh and India as illustrative case studies. The model is most sensitive to changes in oocyst excretion and infection rate, and to assumptions on the share of faeces reaching the surface water for different sanitation types. We find urban centres to be hotspots of human Cryptosporidium emissions. We estimate that 53% (Bangladesh) and 91% (India) of total emissions come from urban areas. 50% of oocysts come from only 8% (Bangladesh) and 3% (India) of the country area. In the future, population growth and urbanization may further deteriorate water quality in Bangladesh and India, despite improved sanitation. Under our ‘business as usual’ (‘sanitation improvements’) scenario, oocyst emissions will increase by a factor 2.0 (1.2) for India and 2.9 (1.1) for Bangladesh between 2010 and 2050. Population growth, urbanization and sanitation development are important processes to consider for large scale water quality modelling.

  8. Estimation of urban residential electricity demand in China using household survey data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Shaojie; Teng, Fei

    2013-01-01

    This paper uses annual urban household survey data of Sichuan Province from 2007 to 2009 to estimate the income and price elasticities of residential electricity demand, along with the effects of lifestyle-related variables. The empirical results show that in the urban area of Sichuan province, the residential electricity demand is price- and income-inelastic, with price and income elasticities ranging from −0.35 to −0.50 and from 0.14 to 0.33, respectively. Such lifestyle-related variables as demographic variables, dwelling size and holdings of home appliances, are also important determinants of residential electricity demand, especially the latter. These results are robust to a variety of sensitivity tests. The research findings imply that urban residential electricity demand continues to increase with the growth of income. The empirical results have important policy implications for the Multistep Electricity Price, which been adopted in some cities and is expected to be promoted nationwide through the installation of energy-efficient home appliances. - Highlights: • We estimate price and income elasticities in China using household survey data. • The current study is the first such study in China at this level. • Both price and income are inelastic. • Behavior factors have important impact on electricity consumption

  9. Integrating environmental and self-report data to refine cannabis prevalence estimates in a major urban area of Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Been, Frederic; Schneider, Christian; Zobel, Frank; Delémont, Olivier; Esseiva, Pierre

    2016-10-01

    Cannabis consumption is a topical subject because of discussions about reviewing current regulations. In this context, having a more comprehensive approach to assess and monitor prevalence and consumption is highly relevant. The objective of this work was to refine current estimates about prevalence of cannabis use by combining self-report data and results derived from wastewater analysis. Self-report data was retrieved from surveys conducted in Switzerland and Europe. Wastewater samples were collected at the wastewater treatment plant of Lausanne, western Switzerland, over a 15 months period. The occurrence of 11-nor-9-carboxy-delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-COOH), a specific metabolite of delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), was monitored. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate consumption, prevalence and number of cannabis users in the investigated area. According to survey data, 12-months prevalence in western Switzerland was estimated to 6.2% of the population aged 15 or older, with an estimated daily cannabis consumption of 8.1gday(-1)·1000inhab(-1) (at 11.2% purity). The integrative model comprising self-report and wastewater data substantially reduced the uncertainty in the estimates and suggested a last-year prevalence of 9.4%, with a daily cannabis consumption of 14.0gday(-1)·1000inhab(-1). Although in the same order of magnitude, consumption and prevalence estimates obtained with the integrative model were 78% and 52% higher compared to self-report figures, respectively. Interestingly, these figures are similar to discrepancies observed when comparing self-reported alcohol consumption and sales or tax data. The suggested integrative model allowed to account for known sources of uncertainty and provided refined estimates of cannabis prevalence in a major urban area of Switzerland. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Recov'Heat: An estimation tool of urban waste heat recovery potential in sustainable cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goumba, Alain; Chiche, Samuel; Guo, Xiaofeng; Colombert, Morgane; Bonneau, Patricia

    2017-02-01

    Waste heat recovery is considered as an efficient way to increase carbon-free green energy utilization and to reduce greenhouse gas emission. Especially in urban area, several sources such as sewage water, industrial process, waste incinerator plants, etc., are still rarely explored. Their integration into a district heating system providing heating and/or domestic hot water could be beneficial for both energy companies and local governments. EFFICACITY, a French research institute focused on urban energy transition, has developed an estimation tool for different waste heat sources potentially explored in a sustainable city. This article presents the development method of such a decision making tool which, by giving both energetic and economic analysis, helps local communities and energy service companies to make preliminary studies in heat recovery projects.

  11. Some Important Observations on the Populations of Hooded Vultures Necrosyrtes monachus in Urban Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Gbogbo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite major declines in the population of vultures around the world, noticeable increases were reported in the populations of Hooded Vultures Necrosyrtes monachus over the past decade in Accra—an important vulture habitat in Ghana. In recent times, however, there is a growing concern that the vulture numbers are decreasing even though scientific data to support this is nonexisting. As a vital zoogeographical and conservation tool, it is important to keep an up-to-date knowledge about urban bird populations amidst rapid urbanization and associated changes. Using a combination of field data, literature review, and stakeholder consultations, it was indicative that severe decline might have indeed occurred in the populations of Hooded Vultures in Accra. Evidence suggests the killing of vultures for consumption, traditional medicine, and black magic in an undercover trade with possible transboundary connections as important underlying factor. Additional factors suspected to underlie the declines include changes in management of urban facilities and destruction of roosting and nesting trees. The implications of interspecific competition with Pied Crows Corvus albus on Hooded Vultures however remain unclear. There is an urgent need for conservation campaign and education to save the Hooded Vulture in Ghana.

  12. Fate modeling of mercury species and fluxes estimation in an urban river

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong, Yindong; Zhang, Wei; Chen, Cen; Chen, Long; Wang, Wentao; Hu, Xindi; Wang, Huanhuan; Hu, Dan; Ou, Langbo; Wang, Xuejun; Wang, Qiguang

    2014-01-01

    The fate and transfer of mercury in urban river is an important environmental concern. In this study, QWASI (Quantitative Water–Air–Sediment Interaction) model was selected to estimate the levels of total mercury and three mercury species in water and sediment, and was used to quantify the fluxes of mercury at water/air and sediment/water interfaces of an urban river. The predicted mercury levels in water and sediments were closed to the measured values. Water inflow, re-suspension of sediment and diffusion from sediment to water are major input sources of mercury in water. The net mercury transfer flux from water to air was 0.16 ng/(m 2 h). At the sediment/water interface, a net total mercury transfer of 1.32 ng/(m 2 h) from water to sediment was seen. In addition to the existing dynamic flux chambers measurement, this model method could provide a new perspective to identify the distribution and transfer of mercury in the urban river. -- Highlights: • QWASI could be a good tool to quantify transfer and fate of mercury in environment. • Distribution and flux of mercury species in an urban river was modeled. • Mercury in water mainly came from water inflow, sediment re-suspension and diffusion. • Net mercury transfer from water to air and sediment were 0.16 and 1.32 ng/(m 2 h). -- Quantitative Water–Air–Sediment Interaction model was used to quantify the transfer and fate of mercury in an urban river

  13. [Urban and population development of the city of Puebla and its metropolitan area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbosa Prieto, A

    1991-12-01

    Metropolitanization has been considered an important problem of regional development in developing countries. Attitudes toward the metropolis have been ambivalent in Latin America. On the 1 hand the metropolis is viewed as an obstacle to development that absorbs resources from the zone of influence and incurs high social costs of urbanization, but on the hand it is also viewed as a form of achieving levels of economic efficiency comparable to those of developed countries. Metropolitan areas should not be viewed as isolated, but rather as important points of demographic and manpower attraction, poles of economic growth and technological and cultural innovation. "Urban areas" and "metropolitan zones" are distinct ways of defining and delimiting urban phenomena. Although there is no consensus as to the exact definitions of these 2 urban units, it is generally accepted that the urban area is the city itself as well as the contiguous built up area reaching in all directions to the onset of nonurban land uses such as forests territorial extension that includes the politico-administrative units with urban characteristics such as work places and residences for nonagricultural workers, and that maintain constant and intense socioeconomic interrelations with the central city. The process of urban planning in the metropolitan zone of Puebla, Mexico, began in institutional form in 1980 with master plans for the population centers of Puebla, Amozoc, San Andres and San Pedro Cholula, and Zacatelco in the state of Tlaxcala. In 1987., an attempt was made by the governments of the states of Puebla and Tlaxcala to develop a plan for the metropolitan zone as a single unit. Population growth was greater within the city of Puebla than in the metropolitan zone from 1960-80, but after 1980 growth in the outlying areas exceeded that in the center city. The population density of the city of Puebla declined from 160/hectare in 1950 to 76/hectare in 1990, the result of progressive dispersion

  14. Land development, land use, and urban sprawl in Puerto Rico integrating remote sensing and population census data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian Martinuzzi; William A. Gould; Olga M. Ramos Gonzalez

    2007-01-01

    The island of Puerto Rico has both a high population density and a long history of ineffective land use planning. This study integrates geospatial technology and population census data to understand how people use and develop the lands. We define three new regions for Puerto Rico: Urban (16%), Densely Populated Rural (36%), and Sparsely Populated Rural (48%). Eleven...

  15. Estimating Stand Volume and Above-Ground Biomass of Urban Forests Using LiDAR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincenzo Giannico

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Assessing forest stand conditions in urban and peri-urban areas is essential to support ecosystem service planning and management, as most of the ecosystem services provided are a consequence of forest stand characteristics. However, collecting data for assessing forest stand conditions is time consuming and labor intensive. A plausible approach for addressing this issue is to establish a relationship between in situ measurements of stand characteristics and data from airborne laser scanning (LiDAR. In this study we assessed forest stand volume and above-ground biomass (AGB in a broadleaved urban forest, using a combination of LiDAR-derived metrics, which takes the form of a forest allometric model. We tested various methods for extracting proxies of basal area (BA and mean stand height (H from the LiDAR point-cloud distribution and evaluated the performance of different models in estimating forest stand volume and AGB. The best predictors for both models were the scale parameters of the Weibull distribution of all returns (except the first (proxy of BA and the 95th percentile of the distribution of all first returns (proxy of H. The R2 were 0.81 (p < 0.01 for the stand volume model and 0.77 (p < 0.01 for the AGB model with a RMSE of 23.66 m3·ha−1 (23.3% and 19.59 Mg·ha−1 (23.9%, respectively. We found that a combination of two LiDAR-derived variables (i.e., proxy of BA and proxy of H, which take the form of a forest allometric model, can be used to estimate stand volume and above-ground biomass in broadleaved urban forest areas. Our results can be compared to other studies conducted using LiDAR in broadleaved forests with similar methods.

  16. Population-Adjusted Street Connectivity, Urbanicity and Risk of Obesity in the U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fahui; Wen, Ming; Xu, Yanqing

    2013-01-01

    Street connectivity, defined as the number of (3-way or more) intersections per area unit, is an important index of built environments as a proxy for walkability in a neighborhood. This paper examines its geographic variations across the rural-urban continuum (urbanicity), major racial-ethnic groups and various poverty levels. The population-adjusted street connectivity index is proposed as a better measure than the regular index for a large area such as county due to likely concentration of population in limited space within the large area. Based on the data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), this paper uses multilevel modeling to analyze its association with physical activity and obesity while controlling for various individual and county-level variables. Analysis of data subsets indicates that the influences of individual and county-level variables on obesity risk vary across areas of different urbanization levels. The positive influence of street connectivity on obesity control is limited to the more but not the mostly urbanized areas. This demonstrates the value of obesogenic environment research in different geographic settings, helps us reconcile and synthesize some seemingly contradictory results reported in different studies, and also promotes that effective policies need to be highly sensitive to the diversity of demographic groups and geographically adaptable. PMID:23667278

  17. Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manan Gupta

    Full Text Available Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates

  18. [Consolidation of international guidelines for the management of canine populations in urban areas and proposal of performance indicators].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Rita de Cassia Maria; Calderón, Néstor; Ferreira, Fernando

    2012-08-01

    The objective of this study is to propose a generic program for the management of urban canine populations with suggestion of performance indicators. The following international guidelines on canine population management were revised and consolidated: World Health Organization, World Organisation for Animal Health, World Society for the Protection of Animals, International Companion Animal Management Coalition, and the Food and Agriculture Organization. Management programs should cover: situation diagnosis, including estimates of population size; social participation with involvement of various sectors in the planning and execution of strategies; educational actions to promote humane values, animal welfare, community health, and responsible ownership (through purchase or adoption); environmental and waste management to eliminate sources of food and shelter; registration and identification of animals; animal health care, reproductive control; prevention and control of zoonoses; control of animal commerce; management of animal behavior and adequate solutions for abandoned animals; and laws regulating responsible ownership, prevention of abandonment and zoonoses. To monitor these actions, four groups of indicators are suggested: animal population indicators, human/animal interaction indicators, public service indicators, and zoonosis indicators. The management of stray canine populations requires political, sanitary, ethologic, ecologic, and humanitarian strategies that are socially acceptable and environmentally sustainable. Such measures must also include the control of zoonoses such as rabies and leishmaniasis, considering the concept of "one health," which benefits both the animals and people in the community.

  19. Factors Associated with Physical Inactivity among Adult Urban Population of Puducherry, India: A Population Based Cross-sectional Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newtonraj, Ariarathinam; Murugan, Natesan; Singh, Zile; Chauhan, Ramesh Chand; Velavan, Anandan; Mani, Manikandan

    2017-05-01

    Physical inactivity is the fourth leading cause of death worldwide. Increase in physical activity decreases the incidence of cardiovascular diseases, Type 2 diabetes, stroke, and improves psychological wellbeing. To study the level of physical inactivity among the adult population in an urban area of Puducherry in India and its associated risk factors. This cross-sectional study was conducted among 569 adult participants from an urban area of Pondicherry. The level of physical inactivity was measured by using WHO standard Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ). Overall prevalence of physical inactivity in our study was 49.7% (CI: 45.6-53.8). Among the physically active people, contribution of physical activity by work was 77.4%, leisure time activities were 11.6% and transport time was 11%. Both men and women were equally inactive {Physically inactive among women was 50% (CI:44.1-55.9)} and {Physically inactive among men was 49.5% (CI:43.8-55.2)}. Prevalence of physical inactivity was increasing with increasing age. Non tobacco users were two times more active than tobacco users {Adjusted Odds Ratio: 2.183 (1.175- 4.057)}. Employed were more active as compared to retired {Adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.412 (0.171-0.991)}, students {Adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.456 (0.196-1.060)}, house wives {Adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.757 (0.509-1.127)} and unemployed {Adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.538 (0.271-1.068)}. Non alcoholics were only 0.34 times as active as alcoholics. Level of physical activity was found to be insufficient among adult urban population of Puducherry. Working adult population found to be active, that too due to their work pattern. There is a need to promote leisure time and travelling time physical activity.

  20. An optimum city size? The scaling relationship for urban population and fine particulate (PM_2_._5) concentration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Lijian; Zhou, Weiqi; Pickett, Steward T.A.; Li, Weifeng; Li, Li

    2016-01-01

    We utilize the distribution of PM_2_._5 concentration and population in large cities at the global scale to illustrate the relationship between urbanization and urban air quality. We found: 1) The relationship varies greatly among continents and countries. Large cities in North America, Europe, and Latin America have better air quality than those in other continents, while those in China and India have the worst air quality. 2) The relationships between urban population size and PM_2_._5 concentration in large cities of different continents or countries were different. PM_2_._5 concentration in large cities in North America, Europe, and Latin America showed little fluctuation or a small increasing trend, but those in Africa and India represent a “U” type relationship and in China represent an inverse “U” type relationship. 3) The potential contribution of population to PM_2_._5 concentration was higher in the large cities in China and India, but lower in other large cities. - Highlights: • Urban population and PM_2_._5 concentration varies greatly among regions. • Urban population size increase does not always enhances PM_2_._5 concentration. • Population's potential contribution to PM_2_._5 concentration higher in China. - We utilize the distribution of PM_2_._5 concentration and population in large cities at the global scale to illustrate the relationship between urbanization and urban air quality.

  1. Estimation of population doses from chest mass screening, 1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashizume, Tadashi; Maruyama, Takashi

    1977-01-01

    The population doses in mass photofluorography of the chest were estimated on the basis of nation-wide radiological survey. A total frequency of photofluorographic examinations for the chest mass survey was 18.3 million for males and 15.0 million for females, with a total of 33.3 million. Mass surveys of the chest during the school age are carried out only at the time of admission into the primary school (5 or 6 years old) and at the second class of the junior high school (13 or 14 years old). The gonad doses were determined with an ionization chamber placed at the position of gonad in tissue-equivalent phantoms. The active bone marrow was subdivided into 72 elements. The dose contribution to the marrow arising from the particular exposure conditions was calculated at each site within the elements, using the depth-dose curves experimentally determined and the proportion of the total active bone marrow present at that site. The resultant genetically significant dose for males and females was 0.07 and 0.025 mrad per person per year, respectively, with a total of 0.032 mrad per person per year. The per Caput mean marrow dose for male and female was 5.5 and 4.2 mrad per year, respectively, with a total of 9.7 mrad per year. The leukemia significant dose was calculated from the per Caput mean marrow dose by adopting weighting factor, that is leukemia significant factor. The resultant leukemia significant factor for male and female was 5.2 and 4.1 mrad per person per year, respectively. (auth.)

  2. Biogeographical ancestry is associated with socioenvironmental conditions and infections in a Latin American urban population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiago Magalhães da Silva

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Racial inequalities are observed for different diseases and are mainly caused by differences in socioeconomic status between ethnoracial groups. Genetic factors have also been implicated, and recently, several studies have investigated the association between biogeographical ancestry (BGA and complex diseases. However, the role of BGA as a proxy for non-genetic health determinants has been little investigated. Similarly, studies comparing the association of BGA and self-reported skin colour with these determinants are scarce. Here, we report the association of BGA and self-reported skin colour with socioenvironmental conditions and infections. We studied 1246 children living in a Brazilian urban poor area. The BGA was estimated using 370,539 genome-wide autosomal markers. Standardised questionnaires were administered to the children’s guardians to evaluate socioenvironmental conditions. Infection (or pathogen exposure was defined by the presence of positive serologic test results for IgG to seven pathogens (Toxocara spp, Toxoplasma gondii, Helicobacter pylori, and hepatitis A, herpes simplex, herpes zoster and Epstein-Barr viruses and the presence of intestinal helminth eggs in stool samples (Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichiuris trichiura. African ancestry was negatively associated with maternal education and household income and positively associated with infections and variables, indicating poorer housing and living conditions. The self-reported skin colour was associated with infections only. In stratified analyses, the proportion of African ancestry was associated with most of the outcomes investigated, particularly among admixed individuals. In conclusion, BGA was associated with socioenvironmental conditions and infections even in a low-income and highly admixed population, capturing differences that self-reported skin colour miss. Importantly, our findings suggest caution in interpreting significant associations between BGA and diseases

  3. Reliability of different mark-recapture methods for population size estimation tested against reference population sizes constructed from field data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annegret Grimm

    Full Text Available Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK. If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2. Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to

  4. Knowledge and perceptions of diabetes in urban and semi urban population of peshawar, pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuhaid, M.; Diju, I.U.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Diabetes mellitus is a major health issue in Pakistan. The aim of this study was to evaluate the knowledge and perceptions of diabetes in a sample population of Peshawar. Methods: This crosssectional, descriptive study was carried out in seven different localities of Peshawar. A sample of 305 residents were interviewed aged from 15-60 years and above, using a questionnaire specifically designed and translated into Urdu language for convenience of selected subjects. Results: Knowledge of diabetes was suboptimal. The mean percentages of correct responses to questions regarding three classical symptoms and given complications were 47.1% and 30.8%. Excessive sugar intake, obesity, family history, lack of physical activities and stress were acknowledged by 46.2%, 42.3%, 39.3%, 33.4%, and 31.8% of the subjects respectively. Presence of family history and level of education were recognised to be associated with more knowledge. Conclusion: There is lack of awareness of major risk factors and some complications of diabetes mellitus. Level of education is a significant predictor regarding. (author)

  5. Seroprevalence of hepatitis C and associated risk factors among an urban population in Haiti

    OpenAIRE

    Hepburn, Matthew J; Lawitz, Eric J

    2004-01-01

    Abstract Background The seroprevalence of hepatitis C varies substantially between countries and geographic regions. A better understanding of the seroprevalence of this disease, and the risk factors associated with seropositive status, supply data for the development of screening programs and provide insight into the transmission of the disease. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the seroprevalence of hepatitis C and associated risk factors in an urban population in Haiti. Me...

  6. Estimating the Impact of Urban Expansion on Land Subsidence Using Time Series of DMSP Night-Time Light Satellite Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, S.; Yu, J.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, L.; Zhou, Q.

    2018-04-01

    In recent decades, urbanization has resulted a massive increase in the amount of infrastructure especially large buildings in large cities worldwide. There has been a noticeable expansion of entire cities both horizontally and vertically. One of the common consequences of urban expansion is the increase of ground loads, which may trigger land subsidence and can be a potential threat of public safety. Monitoring trends of urban expansion and land subsidence using remote sensing technology is needed to ensure safety along with urban planning and development. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Line scan System (DMSP/OLS) Night-Time Light (NTL) images have been used to study urbanization at a regional scale, proving the capability of recognizing urban expansion patterns. In the current study, a normalized illuminated urban area dome volume (IUADV) based on inter-calibrated DMSP/OLS NTL images is shown as a practical approach for estimating urban expansion of Beijing at a single period in time and over subsequent years. To estimate the impact of urban expansion on land subsidence, IUADV was correlated with land subsidence rates obtained using the Stanford Method for Persistent Scatterers (StaMPS) approach within the Persistent Scatterers InSAR (PSInSAR) methodology. Moderate correlations are observed between the urban expansion based on the DMSP/OLS NTL images and land subsidence. The correlation coefficients between the urban expansion of each year and land subsidence tends to gradually decrease over time (Coefficient of determination R = 0.80 - 0.64 from year 2005 to year 2010), while the urban expansion of two sequential years exhibit an opposite trend (R = 0.29 - 0.57 from year 2005 to year 2010) except for the two sequential years between 2007 and 2008 (R = 0.14).

  7. Nest suitability, fine-scale population structure and male-mediated dispersal of a solitary ground nesting bee in an urban landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Uribe, Margarita M; Morreale, Stephen J; Santiago, Christine K; Danforth, Bryan N

    2015-01-01

    Bees are the primary pollinators of flowering plants in almost all ecosystems. Worldwide declines in bee populations have raised awareness about the importance of their ecological role in maintaining ecosystem functioning. The naturally strong philopatric behavior that some bee species show can be detrimental to population viability through increased probability of inbreeding. Furthermore, bee populations found in human-altered landscapes, such as urban areas, can experience lower levels of gene flow and effective population sizes, increasing potential for inbreeding depression in wild bee populations. In this study, we investigated the fine-scale population structure of the solitary bee Colletes inaequalis in an urbanized landscape. First, we developed a predictive spatial model to detect suitable nesting habitat for this ground nesting bee and to inform our field search for nests. We genotyped 18 microsatellites in 548 female individuals collected from nest aggregations throughout the study area. Genetic relatedness estimates revealed that genetic similarity among individuals was slightly greater within nest aggregations than among randomly chosen individuals. However, genetic structure among nest aggregations was low (Nei's GST = 0.011). Reconstruction of parental genotypes revealed greater genetic relatedness among females than among males within nest aggregations, suggesting male-mediated dispersal as a potentially important mechanism of population connectivity and inbreeding avoidance. Size of nesting patch was positively correlated with effective population size, but not with other estimators of genetic diversity. We detected a positive trend between geographic distance and genetic differentiation between nest aggregations. Our landscape genetic models suggest that increased urbanization is likely associated with higher levels of inbreeding. Overall, these findings emphasize the importance of density and distribution of suitable nesting patches for enhancing

  8. Nest suitability, fine-scale population structure and male-mediated dispersal of a solitary ground nesting bee in an urban landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margarita M López-Uribe

    Full Text Available Bees are the primary pollinators of flowering plants in almost all ecosystems. Worldwide declines in bee populations have raised awareness about the importance of their ecological role in maintaining ecosystem functioning. The naturally strong philopatric behavior that some bee species show can be detrimental to population viability through increased probability of inbreeding. Furthermore, bee populations found in human-altered landscapes, such as urban areas, can experience lower levels of gene flow and effective population sizes, increasing potential for inbreeding depression in wild bee populations. In this study, we investigated the fine-scale population structure of the solitary bee Colletes inaequalis in an urbanized landscape. First, we developed a predictive spatial model to detect suitable nesting habitat for this ground nesting bee and to inform our field search for nests. We genotyped 18 microsatellites in 548 female individuals collected from nest aggregations throughout the study area. Genetic relatedness estimates revealed that genetic similarity among individuals was slightly greater within nest aggregations than among randomly chosen individuals. However, genetic structure among nest aggregations was low (Nei's GST = 0.011. Reconstruction of parental genotypes revealed greater genetic relatedness among females than among males within nest aggregations, suggesting male-mediated dispersal as a potentially important mechanism of population connectivity and inbreeding avoidance. Size of nesting patch was positively correlated with effective population size, but not with other estimators of genetic diversity. We detected a positive trend between geographic distance and genetic differentiation between nest aggregations. Our landscape genetic models suggest that increased urbanization is likely associated with higher levels of inbreeding. Overall, these findings emphasize the importance of density and distribution of suitable nesting

  9. Cardiovascular Morbidity Profile Of Population Aged 60 Years And Above In Rural And Urban Areas Of Kanpur

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saurabh Goel

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cardiovascular morbidity is a major contributor towards old age health problems which requires specialized care and if left unattended can deteriorate the quality of life and also lead to mortality. Therefore a study was planned to find out the prevalence of cardiovascular morbidity among geriatric population living in rural and urban areas ofKanpur.Objective: To find out the prevalence of cardiovascular morbidity in geriatric population in rural and urban area of Kanpur and also to study the pattern of cardiovascular morbidity in two areas.Material and methods: a cross sectional study was carried out in a randomly selected rural and urban area of Kanpur. 443 geriatrics in rural and 401 in urban area were interviewed and physically examined.Results: Geriatrics constituted 8.2% and 7.7% of total population in rural and urban area respectively. Majority ofpopulation in both areas belonged to 60-70years age group i.e. 78.8% and 75.8% respectively. 12.2% of rural geriatric and 12.5% of urban geriatric were suffering from some or other kind of cardiovascular morbidity. In rural area 39.1%>of geriatric population is hypertensive while in urban area hypertension is prevalent in 41.6%> of geriatric population. 98. l%>of morbid in rural and 86.0% in urban area were not doing any kind of exercise. A majority of population suffering from cardiovascular morbidity were not smoking currently. Majority i.e. 72.2% of geriatric population suffering from cardiovascular morbidity in rural area were having BMJ between 18.5-24.99 while in urban area 57.4% of them were having BMl>-25. Hypertensives consitiuted 57.4% in rural and 66.0% in urban area towards those who are suffering from cardiovascular morbidity.

  10. Cardiovascular Morbidity Profile Of Population Aged 60 Years And Above In Rural And Urban Areas Of Kanpur

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saurabh Goel

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cardiovascular morbidity is a major contributor towards old age health problems which requires specialized care and if left unattended can deteriorate the quality of life and also lead to mortality. Therefore a study was planned to find out the prevalence of cardiovascular morbidity among geriatric population living in rural and urban areas ofKanpur. Objective: To find out the prevalence of cardiovascular morbidity in geriatric population in rural and urban area of Kanpur and also to study the pattern of cardiovascular morbidity in two areas. Material and methods: a cross sectional study was carried out in a randomly selected rural and urban area of Kanpur. 443 geriatrics in rural and 401 in urban area were interviewed and physically examined. Results: Geriatrics constituted 8.2% and 7.7% of total population in rural and urban area respectively. Majority ofpopulation in both areas belonged to 60-70years age group i.e. 78.8% and 75.8% respectively. 12.2% of rural geriatric and 12.5% of urban geriatric were suffering from some or other kind of cardiovascular morbidity. In rural area 39.1%>of geriatric population is hypertensive while in urban area hypertension is prevalent in 41.6%> of geriatric population. 98. l%>of morbid in rural and 86.0% in urban area were not doing any kind of exercise. A majority of population suffering from cardiovascular morbidity were not smoking currently. Majority i.e. 72.2% of geriatric population suffering from cardiovascular morbidity in rural area were having BMJ between 18.5-24.99 while in urban area 57.4% of them were having BMl>-25. Hypertensives consitiuted 57.4% in rural and 66.0% in urban area towards those who are suffering from cardiovascular morbidity.

  11. Determining the drivers of population structure in a highly urbanized landscape to inform conservation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomassen, Henri A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Semple Delaney, Kathleen; Riley, Seth P D; Serieys, Laurel E K; Pease, Katherine; Wayne, Robert K; Smith, Thomas B

    2018-02-01

    Understanding the environmental contributors to population structure is of paramount importance for conservation in urbanized environments. We used spatially explicit models to determine genetic population structure under current and future environmental conditions across a highly fragmented, human-dominated environment in Southern California to assess the effects of natural ecological variation and urbanization. We focused on 7 common species with diverse habitat requirements, home-range sizes, and dispersal abilities. We quantified the relative roles of potential barriers, including natural environmental characteristics and an anthropogenic barrier created by a major highway, in shaping genetic variation. The ability to predict genetic variation in our models differed among species: 11-81% of intraspecific genetic variation was explained by environmental variables. Although an anthropogenically induced barrier (a major highway) severely restricted gene flow and movement at broad scales for some species, genetic variation seemed to be primarily driven by natural environmental heterogeneity at a local level. Our results show how assessing environmentally associated variation for multiple species under current and future climate conditions can help identify priority regions for maximizing population persistence under environmental change in urbanized regions. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. [Prevalence of type 2 diabetes and obesity in two Chilean aboriginal populations living in urban zones].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco, Elena P; Pérez, Francisco B; Angel, Bárbara B; Albala, Cecilia B; Santos, J Luis M; Larenas, Gladys Y; Montalvo, Domingo V

    2004-10-01

    The prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors is increasing in aboriginal populations in Chile. To study the prevalence of obesity, type 2 diabetes and serum lipids in two aboriginal populations, Mapuche and Aymara, that were transferred from a rural to a urban environment. Two groups of subjects over 20 years were analyzed, Mapuche and Aymara. The Mapuche group was formed by 42 men and 105 women, living in four urban communities of Santiago, and an Aymara group formed by 42 men and 118 women, living in Arica, in Northern Chile. Anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, lipid profile, oral glucose tolerance test, fasting insulin and serum leptin were determined. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes was 6.9% in Aymara and 8.2% in Mapuche subjects. The frequency of glucose intolerance was similar in both groups, but greater among men. A total blood cholesterol over 200 mg/dl was observed in 43.1% of Aymara and 27.9% of Mapuche subjects (p Mapuche individuals, respectively (p= NS). The prevalence of type 2 diabetes and dyslipidemia in turban aboriginal populations is higher than that of their rural counterparts. A possible explanation for these results are changes in lifestyles that come along with urbanization, characterized by a high consumption of saturated fat and refined sugars and a low level of physical activity.

  13. RATIO ESTIMATORS FOR THE CO-EFFICIENT OF VARIATION IN A FINITE POPULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Archana V

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The Co-efficient of variation (C.V is a relative measure of dispersion and is free from unit of measurement. Hence it is widely used by the scientists in the disciplines of agriculture, biology, economics and environmental science. Although a lot of work has been reported in the past for the estimation of population C.V in infinite population models, they are not directly applicable for the finite populations. In this paper we have proposed six new estimators of the population C.V in finite population using ratio and product type estimators. The bias and mean square error of these estimators are derived for the simple random sampling design. The performance of the estimators is compared using a real life dataset. The ratio estimator using the information on the population C.V of the auxiliary variable emerges as the best estimator

  14. A Remote Sensing-based Characterization of the Urban Heat Island and its Implications for Modeled Estimates of Urban Biogenic Carbon Fluxes in Boston, MA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Friedl, M. A.; Hutyra, L.; Hardiman, B. S.

    2015-12-01

    Urban land use occupies a small but critical proportion of global land area for the carbon cycle, and in the coming decades, urban land area is expected to nearly double. Conversion of natural land cover to urban land cover imposes myriad ecological effects, including increased land surface and air temperatures via the urban heat island effect. In this study, we characterize the seasonal and spatial characteristics of the urban heat island over Boston, MA and estimate its consequences on biogenic carbon fluxes with a remote sensing-based model. Using a 12-year time series of emissivity- and atmospherically-corrected land surface temperatures from Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery, we find a high degree of spatial heterogeneity and consistent seasonal patterns in the thermal properties of Boston, controlled mainly by variations in vegetative cover. Field measurements of surface air temperature across an urbanization gradient show season- and vegetation-dependent patterns consistent with those observed in the Landsat data. With a fused data set that combines surface air temperature, MODIS, and Landsat observations, we modify and run the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) to explore 1) how elevated temperatures affect diurnal and seasonal patterns of hourly urban biogenic carbon fluxes in Massachusetts in 2013 and 2014 and 2) to what extent these fluxes follow spatial patterns found in the urban heat island. Model modifications simulate the ecological effects of urbanization, including empirical adjustments to reanalysis-driven air temperatures (up to 5 K) and ecosystem respiration reduced by impervious surface area. Model results reveal spatio-temporal patterns consistent with strong land use and vegetation cover controls on biogenic carbon fluxes, with non-trivial biogenic annual net ecosystem exchange occurring in urban and suburban areas (up to -2.5 MgC/ha/yr). We specifically consider the feedbacks between Boston's urban heat island and landscape

  15. APPLYING THIESSEN POLYGON CATCHMENT AREAS AND GRIDDED POPULATION WEIGHTS TO ESTIMATE CONFLICT-DRIVEN POPULATION CHANGES IN SOUTH SUDAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Jordan

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent violence in South Sudan produced significant levels of conflict-driven migration undermining the accuracy and utility of both national and local level population forecasts commonly used in demographic estimates, public health metrics and food security proxies. This article explores the use of Thiessen Polygons and population grids (Gridded Population of the World, WorldPop and LandScan as weights for estimating the catchment areas for settlement locations that serve large populations of internally displaced persons (IDP, in order to estimate the county-level in- and out-migration attributable to conflict-driven displacement between 2014-2015. Acknowledging IDP totals improves internal population estimates presented by global population databases. Unlike other forecasts, which produce spatially uniform increases in population, accounting for displaced population reveals that 15 percent of counties (n = 12 increased in population over 20 percent, and 30 percent of counties (n = 24 experienced zero or declining population growth, due to internal displacement and refugee out-migration. Adopting Thiessen Polygon catchment zones for internal migration estimation can be applied to other areas with United Nations IDP settlement data, such as Yemen, Somalia, and Nigeria.

  16. Applying Thiessen Polygon Catchment Areas and Gridded Population Weights to Estimate Conflict-Driven Population Changes in South Sudan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, L.

    2017-10-01

    Recent violence in South Sudan produced significant levels of conflict-driven migration undermining the accuracy and utility of both national and local level population forecasts commonly used in demographic estimates, public health metrics and food security proxies. This article explores the use of Thiessen Polygons and population grids (Gridded Population of the World, WorldPop and LandScan) as weights for estimating the catchment areas for settlement locations that serve large populations of internally displaced persons (IDP), in order to estimate the county-level in- and out-migration attributable to conflict-driven displacement between 2014-2015. Acknowledging IDP totals improves internal population estimates presented by global population databases. Unlike other forecasts, which produce spatially uniform increases in population, accounting for displaced population reveals that 15 percent of counties (n = 12) increased in population over 20 percent, and 30 percent of counties (n = 24) experienced zero or declining population growth, due to internal displacement and refugee out-migration. Adopting Thiessen Polygon catchment zones for internal migration estimation can be applied to other areas with United Nations IDP settlement data, such as Yemen, Somalia, and Nigeria.

  17. Urban energy consumption and related carbon emission estimation: a study at the sector scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Weiwei; Chen, Chen; Su, Meirong; Chen, Bin; Cai, Yanpeng; Xing, Tao

    2013-12-01

    With rapid economic development and energy consumption growth, China has become the largest energy consumer in the world. Impelled by extensive international concern, there is an urgent need to analyze the characteristics of energy consumption and related carbon emission, with the objective of saving energy, reducing carbon emission, and lessening environmental impact. Focusing on urban ecosystems, the biggest energy consumer, a method for estimating energy consumption and related carbon emission was established at the urban sector scale in this paper. Based on data for 1996-2010, the proposed method was applied to Beijing in a case study to analyze the consumption of different energy resources (i.e., coal, oil, gas, and electricity) and related carbon emission in different sectors (i.e., agriculture, industry, construction, transportation, household, and service sectors). The results showed that coal and oil contributed most to energy consumption and carbon emission among different energy resources during the study period, while the industrial sector consumed the most energy and emitted the most carbon among different sectors. Suggestions were put forward for energy conservation and emission reduction in Beijing. The analysis of energy consumption and related carbon emission at the sector scale is helpful for practical energy saving and emission reduction in urban ecosystems.

  18. The Urban Environment and Childhood Asthma (URECA birth cohort study: design, methods, and study population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandel Megan T

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The incidence and morbidity of wheezing illnesses and childhood asthma is especially high in poor urban areas. This paper describes the study design, methods, and population of the Urban Environment and Childhood Asthma (URECA study, which was established to investigate the immunologic causes of asthma among inner-city children. Methods and Results URECA is an observational prospective study that enrolled pregnant women in central urban areas of Baltimore, Boston, New York City, and St. Louis and is following their offspring from birth through age 7 years. The birth cohort consists of 560 inner-city children who have at least one parent with an allergic disease or asthma, and all families live in areas in which at least 20% of the population has incomes below the poverty line. In addition, 49 inner-city children with no parental history of allergies or asthma were enrolled. The primary hypothesis is that specific urban exposures in early life promote a unique pattern of immune development (impaired antiviral and increased Th2 responses that increases the risk of recurrent wheezing and allergic sensitization in early childhood, and of asthma by age 7 years. To track immune development, cytokine responses of blood mononuclear cells stimulated ex vivo are measured at birth and then annually. Environmental assessments include allergen and endotoxin levels in house dust, pre- and postnatal maternal stress, and indoor air nicotine and nitrogen dioxide. Nasal mucous samples are collected from the children during respiratory illnesses and analyzed for respiratory viruses. The complex interactions between environmental exposures and immune development will be assessed with respect to recurrent wheeze at age 3 years and asthma at age 7 years. Conclusion The overall goal of the URECA study is to develop a better understanding of how specific urban exposures affect immune development to promote wheezing illnesses and asthma.

  19. Model-based estimation of finite population total in stratified sampling

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The work presented in this paper concerns the estimation of finite population total under model – based framework. Nonparametric regression approach as a method of estimating finite population total is explored. The asymptotic properties of the estimators based on nonparametric regression are also developed under ...

  20. When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

    Science.gov (United States)

    David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

    2010-01-01

    The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...

  1. Associations between soil lead concentrations and populations by race/ethnicity and income-to-poverty ratio in urban and rural areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aelion, C Marjorie; Davis, Harley T; Lawson, Andrew B; Cai, Bo; McDermott, Suzanne

    2013-02-01

    Lead (Pb) is a well-studied environmental contaminant that has many negative health effects, especially for children. Both racial/ethnic and income disparities have been documented with respect to exposure to Pb in soils. The objectives of this study were to assess whether soil Pb concentrations in rural and urban areas of South Carolina USA, previously identified as having clusters of intellectual disabilities (ID) in children, were positively associated with populations of minority and low-income individuals and children (≤ 6 years of age). Surface soils from two rural and two urban areas with identified clusters of ID were analyzed for Pb and concentrations were spatially interpolated using inverse distance weighted analysis. Population race/ethnicity and income-to-poverty ratio (ITPR) from United States Census 2000 block group data were aerially interpolated by block group within each area. Urban areas had significantly higher concentrations of Pb than rural areas. Significant positive associations between black, non-Hispanic Latino, individuals and children ≤ 6 years of age and mean estimated Pb concentrations were observed in both urban (r = 0.38, p = 0.0007) and rural (r = 0.53, p = 0.04) areas. Significant positive associations also were observed between individuals and children with an ITPR urban areas. Racial/ethnic minorities and low ITPR individuals, including children, may be at elevated risk for exposure to Pb in soils.

  2. MITIGATION SCENARIOS FOR RESIDENTIAL FIRES IN DENSELY POPULATED URBAN SETTLEMENTS IN SUKAHAJI VILLAGE, BANDUNG CITY

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    Saut Aritua Hasiholan Sagala

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Residential fires are a form of disaster that often occurs in urban areas especially in densely populated settlements. This study looks at possible mitigation scenarios for this kind of disaster. A case study was conducted in Babakan Ciparay Sub-District in Bandung City, among the densely populated settlements, and was focused especially on Sukahaji Village, a sub-unit of Babakan Ciparay, which is the most densely populated village in Bandung City with up to 234.14 people/ha. There have been six structural fires recorded from 2007 until 2010 occurring in Sukahaji. This study applied stratified random sampling as the preferred sampling technique and data collection method from a total population of 3,227 buildings. The data was then examined using risk analysis. The results have led to two intervention measures suggested as mitigation scenarios for residential fires that can be applied within the Sukahaji Village. The study concludes that mitigation measures through strengthening community capacity can be the principal option in reducing risk to fires in densely populated urban settlements.

  3. Estimating population sizes for elusive animals: the forest elephants of Kakum National Park, Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggert, L S; Eggert, J A; Woodruff, D S

    2003-06-01

    African forest elephants are difficult to observe in the dense vegetation, and previous studies have relied upon indirect methods to estimate population sizes. Using multilocus genotyping of noninvasively collected samples, we performed a genetic survey of the forest elephant population at Kakum National Park, Ghana. We estimated population size, sex ratio and genetic variability from our data, then combined this information with field observations to divide the population into age groups. Our population size estimate was very close to that obtained using dung counts, the most commonly used indirect method of estimating the population sizes of forest elephant populations. As their habitat is fragmented by expanding human populations, management will be increasingly important to the persistence of forest elephant populations. The data that can be obtained from noninvasively collected samples will help managers plan for the conservation of this keystone species.

  4. Effect of water resource development and management on lymphatic filariasis, and estimates of populations at risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erlanger, Tobias E; Keiser, Jennifer; Caldas De Castro, Marcia; Bos, Robert; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2005-09-01

    Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating disease overwhelmingly caused by Wuchereria bancrofti, which is transmitted by various mosquito species. Here, we present a systematic literature review with the following objectives: (i) to establish global and regional estimates of populations at risk of LF with particular consideration of water resource development projects, and (ii) to assess the effects of water resource development and management on the frequency and transmission dynamics of the disease. We estimate that globally, 2 billion people are at risk of LF. Among them, there are 394.5 million urban dwellers without access to improved sanitation and 213 million rural dwellers living in close proximity to irrigation. Environmental changes due to water resource development and management consistently led to a shift in vector species composition and generally to a strong proliferation of vector populations. For example, in World Health Organization (WHO) subregions 1 and 2, mosquito densities of the Anopheles gambiae complex and Anopheles funestus were up to 25-fold higher in irrigated areas when compared with irrigation-free sites. Although the infection prevalence of LF often increased after the implementation of a water project, there was no clear association with clinical symptoms. Concluding, there is a need to assess and quantify changes of LF transmission parameters and clinical manifestations over the entire course of water resource developments. Where resources allow, integrated vector management should complement mass drug administration, and broad-based monitoring and surveillance of the disease should become an integral part of large-scale waste management and sanitation programs, whose basic rationale lies in a systemic approach to city, district, and regional level health services and disease prevention.

  5. Population Density and AIDS-Related Stigma in Large-Urban, Small-Urban, and Rural Communities of the Southeastern USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalichman, Seth; Katner, Harold; Banas, Ellen; Kalichman, Moira

    2017-07-01

    AIDS stigmas delay HIV diagnosis, interfere with health care, and contribute to mental health problems among people living with HIV. While there are few studies of the geographical distribution of AIDS stigma, research suggests that AIDS stigmas are differentially experienced in rural and urban areas. We conducted computerized interviews with 696 men and women living with HIV in 113 different zip code areas that were classified as large-urban, small-urban, and rural areas in a southeast US state with high-HIV prevalence. Analyses conducted at the individual level (N = 696) accounting for clustering at the zip code level showed that internalized AIDS-related stigma (e.g., the sense of being inferior to others because of HIV) was experienced with greater magnitude in less densely populated communities. Multilevel models indicated that after adjusting for potential confounding factors, rural communities reported greater internalized AIDS-related stigma compared to large-urban areas and that small-urban areas indicated greater experiences of enacted stigma (e.g., discrimination) than large-urban areas. The associations between anticipated AIDS-related stigma (e.g., expecting discrimination) and population density at the community-level were not significant. Results suggest that people living in rural and small-urban settings experience greater AIDS-related internalized and enacted stigma than their counterparts living in large-urban centers. Research is needed to determine whether low-density population areas contribute to or are sought out by people who experienced greater AIDS-related stigma. Regardless of causal directions, interventions are needed to address AIDS-related stigma, especially among people in sparsely populated areas with limited resources.

  6. Normative data and discriminative properties of short form 36 (SF-36 in Turkish urban population

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    Akvardar Yildiz

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background SF-36 has been both translated into different languages and adapted to different cultures to obtain comparable data on health status internationally. However there have been only a limited number of studies focused on the discriminative ability of SF-36 regarding social and disease status in developing countries. The aim of this study was to obtain population norms of the short form 36 (SF-36 health survey and the association of SF-36 domains with demographic and socioeconomic variables in an urban population in Turkey. Methods A cross-sectional study. Face to face interviews were carried out with a sample of households. The sample was systematically selected from two urban Health Districts in Izmir, Turkey. The study group consisted of 1,279 people selected from a study population of 46,290 people aged 18 and over. Results Internal consistencies of the scales were high, with the exception of mental health and vitality. Physical health scales were associated with both age and gender. On the other hand, mental health scales were less strongly associated with age and gender. Women reported poorer health compared to men in general. Social risk factors (employment status, lower education and economic strain were associated with worse health profiles. The SF-36 was found to be capable of discriminating disease status. Conclusion Our findings, cautiously generalisable to urban population, suggest that the SF-36 can be a valuable tool for studies on health outcomes in Turkish population. SF-36 may also be a promising measure for research on health inequalities in Turkey and other developing countries.

  7. Urban dogs in rural areas: Human-mediated movement defines dog populations in southern Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villatoro, Federico J; Sepúlveda, Maximiliano A; Stowhas, Paulina; Silva-Rodríguez, Eduardo A

    2016-12-01

    Management strategies for dog populations and their diseases include reproductive control, euthanasia and vaccination, among others. However, the effectiveness of these strategies can be severely affected by human-mediated dog movement. If immigration is important, then the location of origin of dogs imported by humans will be fundamental to define the spatial scales over which population management and research should apply. In this context, the main objective of our study was to determine the spatial extent of dog demographic processes in rural areas and the proportion of dogs that could be labeled as immigrants at multiple spatial scales. To address our objective we conducted surveys in households located in a rural landscape in southern Chile. Interviews allowed us to obtain information on the demographic characteristics of dogs in these rural settings, human influence on dog mortality and births, the localities of origin of dogs living in rural areas, and the spatial extent of human-mediated dog movement. We found that most rural dogs (64.1%) were either urban dogs that had been brought to rural areas (40.0%), or adopted dogs that had been previously abandoned in rural roads (24.1%). Some dogs were brought from areas located as far as ∼700km away from the study area. Human-mediated movement of dogs, especially from urban areas, seems to play a fundamental role in the population dynamics of dogs in rural areas. Consequently, local scale efforts to manage dog populations or their diseases are unlikely to succeed if implemented in isolation, simply because dogs can be brought from surrounding urban areas or even distant locations. We suggest that efforts to manage or study dog populations and related diseases should be implemented using a multi-scale approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

    2015-12-01

    This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities.

  9. Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities. PMID:26958606

  10. Assessment of Population Exposure to Coarse and Fine Particulate Matter in the Urban Areas of Chennai, India

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    Ramachandran Prasannavenkatesh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Research outcomes from the epidemiological studies have found that the course (PM10 and the fine particulate matter (PM2.5 are mainly responsible for various respiratory health effects for humans. The population-weighted exposure assessment is used as a vital decision-making tool to analyze the vulnerable areas where the population is exposed to critical concentrations of pollutants. Systemic sampling was carried out at strategic locations of Chennai to estimate the various concentration levels of particulate pollution during November 2013–January 2014. The concentration of the pollutants was classified based on the World Health Organization interim target (IT guidelines. Using geospatial information systems the pollution and the high-resolution population data were interpolated to study the extent of the pollutants at the urban scale. The results show that approximately 28% of the population resides in vulnerable locations where the coarse particulate matter exceeds the prescribed standards. Alarmingly, the results of the analysis of fine particulates show that about 94% of the inhabitants live in critical areas where the concentration of the fine particulates exceeds the IT guidelines. Results based on human exposure analysis show the vulnerability is more towards the zones which are surrounded by prominent sources of pollution.

  11. Assessment of Population Exposure to Coarse and Fine Particulate Matter in the Urban Areas of Chennai, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasannavenkatesh, Ramachandran; Andimuthu, Ramachandran; Kandasamy, Palanivelu; Rajadurai, Geetha; Kumar, Divya Subash; Radhapriya, Parthasarathy; Ponnusamy, Malini

    2015-01-01

    Research outcomes from the epidemiological studies have found that the course (PM10) and the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are mainly responsible for various respiratory health effects for humans. The population-weighted exposure assessment is used as a vital decision-making tool to analyze the vulnerable areas where the population is exposed to critical concentrations of pollutants. Systemic sampling was carried out at strategic locations of Chennai to estimate the various concentration levels of particulate pollution during November 2013-January 2014. The concentration of the pollutants was classified based on the World Health Organization interim target (IT) guidelines. Using geospatial information systems the pollution and the high-resolution population data were interpolated to study the extent of the pollutants at the urban scale. The results show that approximately 28% of the population resides in vulnerable locations where the coarse particulate matter exceeds the prescribed standards. Alarmingly, the results of the analysis of fine particulates show that about 94% of the inhabitants live in critical areas where the concentration of the fine particulates exceeds the IT guidelines. Results based on human exposure analysis show the vulnerability is more towards the zones which are surrounded by prominent sources of pollution.

  12. Allergic rhinitis in northern vietnam: increased risk of urban living according to a large population survey

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    Lâm Hoàng

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known about prevalence and risk factors of allergic rhinitis and chronic nasal symptoms among adults in Vietnam. We aimed to estimate the prevalence, risk factor patterns and co-morbidities of allergic rhinitis and chronic nasal symptoms in one urban and one rural area in northern Vietnam. Methods A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted from August 2007 to January 2008 in urban Hoankiem and rural Bavi in Hanoi among adults aged 21-70 years. Of 7008 randomly selected subjects, 91.7% participated in Bavi and 70.3% in Hoankiem. Results Allergic rhinitis ever or chronic nasal symptoms were reported by 50.2%. The prevalence of allergic rhinitis ever was considerably higher in Hoankiem compared to Bavi, 29.6% vs 10.0% (p Conclusions Allergic rhinitis ever was considerably more common in the urban area. Nasal blocking and runny nose was each reported by about one third of the studied sample with no major urban-rural difference. Further, exposure to air pollution at work was significantly associated with allergic rhinitis ever, nasal blocking and runny nose.

  13. Social Networks and Health: Understanding the Nuances of Healthcare Access between Urban and Rural Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoah, Padmore Adusei; Edusei, Joseph; Amuzu, David

    2018-05-13

    Communities and individuals in many sub-Saharan African countries often face limited access to healthcare. Hence, many rely on social networks to enhance their chances for adequate health care. While this knowledge is well-established, little is known about the nuances of how different population groups activate these networks to improve access to healthcare. This paper examines how rural and urban dwellers in the Ashanti Region in Ghana distinctively and systematically activate their social networks to enhance access to healthcare. It uses a qualitative cross-sectional design, with in-depth interviews of 79 primary participants (28 urban and 51 rural residents) in addition to the views of eight community leaders and eight health personnel. It was discovered that both intimate and distanced social networks for healthcare are activated at different periods by rural and urban residents. Four main stages of social networks activation, comprising different individuals and groups were observed among rural and urban dwellers. Among both groups, physical proximity, privacy, trust and sense of fairness, socio-cultural meaning attached to health problems, and perceived knowledge and other resources (mainly money) held in specific networks inherently influenced social network activation. The paper posits that a critical analysis of social networks may help to tailor policy contents to individuals and groups with limited access to healthcare.

  14. Plasma carotenoids are associated with socioeconomic status in an urban Indigenous population: an observational study

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    Maple-Brown Louise

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Indigenous Australians experience poorer health than other Australians. Poor diet may contribute to this, and be related to their generally lower socioeconomic status (SES. Even within Indigenous populations, SES may be important. Our aim was to identify factors associated with plasma carotenoids as a marker of fruit and vegetable intake among urban dwelling Indigenous Australians, with a particular focus on SES. Methods Cross sectional study in urban dwelling Indigenous Australians participating in the DRUID (Darwin Region Urban Indigenous Diabetes Study. An SES score, based on education, employment, household size, home ownership and income was computed and plasma carotenoids measured by high performance liquid chromatography in 897 men and women aged 15 - 81 years (mean 36, standard deviation 15. Linear regression analysis was used to determine the relationship between SES and plasma carotenoids, adjusting for demographic, health and lifestyle variables, including frequency of intakes of food groups (fruit, vegetables, takeaway foods, snacks and fruit/vegetable juice. Results SES was positively associated with plasma concentrations of lutein/zeaxanthin (p trend Conclusions Even within urban Indigenous Australians, higher SES was associated with higher concentrations of plasma carotenoids. Low plasma carotenoids have been linked with poor health outcomes; increasing accessibility of fruit and vegetables, as well as reducing smoking rates could increase concentrations and otherwise improve health, but our results suggest there may be additional factors contributing to lower carotenoid concentrations in Indigenous Australians.

  15. Social Stigma, Social Capital Reconstruction and Rural Migrants in Urban China: A Population Health Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xinguang; Stanton, Bonita; Kaljee, Linda M; Fang, Xiaoyi; Xiong, Qing; Lin, Danhua; Zhang, Liying; Li, Xiaoming

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examine migrant stigma and its effect on social capital reconstruction among rural migrants who possess legal rural residence but live and work in urban China. After a review of the concepts of stigma and social capital, we report data collected through in-depth interviews with 40 rural migrant workers and 38 urban residents recruited from Beijing, China. Findings from this study indicate that social stigma against rural migrants is common in urban China and is reinforced through media, social institutions and their representatives, and day-to-day interactions. As an important part of discrimination, stigma against migrant workers creates inequality, undermines trust, and reduces opportunities for interpersonal interactions between migrants and urban residents. Through these social processes, social stigma interferes with the reconstruction of social capital (including bonding, bridging and linking social capital) for individual rural migrants as well as for their communities. The interaction between stigma and social capital reconstruction may present as a mechanism by which migration leads to negative health consequences. Results from this study underscore the need for taking measures against migrant stigma and alternatively work toward social capital reconstruction for health promotion and disease prevention among this population.

  16. "Capture" Me if You Can: Estimating Abundance of Dolphin Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Jessica; Curran, Mary Carla; Cox, Tara

    2016-01-01

    Animal populations are monitored over time to assess the effects of environmental disaster and disease, as well as the efficacy of laws designed to protect them. Determining the abundance of a species within a defined area is one method of monitoring a population. In "Capture" Me if You Can, middle school students will use data collected…

  17. SOME ASPECTS OF FEATURES CONCEPT AND NATURE OF ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY LIFE URBAN POPULATION

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    Kirova M.

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Proved the concept and nature of the environmental safety of life of the urban population. A structural levels in the list of objects to enter the security levels of urban or rural communities of local communities, which changes the nature of the institutional environment environmental security. In assessing the quality of life of urban society used many parameters of socio-economic and environmental. General rules on the prevention of environmental degradation and risks to human health set forth in the applicable law "On Environmental Protection", on the basis of which developed a number of legal documents. As for the capital of Ukraine - Kyiv, it is a great cultural, historical and commercial and industrial center. So we can safely say that Kyiv is characterized by all the environmental problems that are inherent in all large cities. This, above all, traffic pollution, changes in the air quality, noise pollution, emissions of chemicals into the atmosphere, pollution, toxic waste, the problem of waste. But a special place in this region occupies a radioactive problem due to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Also, nearby, in the Kyiv region Kiev reservoir are with not the best environmental conditions. The most important components of ecosystems: the air of the city, urban and suburban water sources, soil city. International experts conducted a study in 215 cities around the world. Kyiv international ranking is 29 in place pollution. Thus, the problem of environmental security for the population of the city. Kyiv, as many large cities in Ukraine is quite relevant. In this regard, the article studies that the environmental safety of life of the urban population in the context of national security - a state of effective security systems (environment interconnected structural levels of the individual, the local community, society, state and international (global community of aggregate factors that endanger or threaten the very existence of which

  18. An advanced algorithm for deformation estimation in non-urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goel, Kanika; Adam, Nico

    2012-09-01

    This paper presents an advanced differential SAR interferometry stacking algorithm for high resolution deformation monitoring in non-urban areas with a focus on distributed scatterers (DSs). Techniques such as the Small Baseline Subset Algorithm (SBAS) have been proposed for processing DSs. SBAS makes use of small baseline differential interferogram subsets. Singular value decomposition (SVD), i.e. L2 norm minimization is applied to link independent subsets separated by large baselines. However, the interferograms used in SBAS are multilooked using a rectangular window to reduce phase noise caused for instance by temporal decorrelation, resulting in a loss of resolution and the superposition of topography and deformation signals from different objects. Moreover, these have to be individually phase unwrapped and this can be especially difficult in natural terrains. An improved deformation estimation technique is presented here which exploits high resolution SAR data and is suitable for rural areas. The implemented method makes use of small baseline differential interferograms and incorporates an object adaptive spatial phase filtering and residual topography removal for an accurate phase and coherence estimation, while preserving the high resolution provided by modern satellites. This is followed by retrieval of deformation via the SBAS approach, wherein, the phase inversion is performed using an L1 norm minimization which is more robust to the typical phase unwrapping errors encountered in non-urban areas. Meter resolution TerraSAR-X data of an underground gas storage reservoir in Germany is used for demonstrating the effectiveness of this newly developed technique in rural areas.

  19. An alternative procedure for estimating the population mean in simple random sampling

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    Housila P. Singh

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of estimating the finite population mean using auxiliary information in simple random sampling. Firstly we have suggested a correction to the mean squared error of the estimator proposed by Gupta and Shabbir [On improvement in estimating the population mean in simple random sampling. Jour. Appl. Statist. 35(5 (2008, pp. 559-566]. Later we have proposed a ratio type estimator and its properties are studied in simple random sampling. Numerically we have shown that the proposed class of estimators is more efficient than different known estimators including Gupta and Shabbir (2008 estimator.

  20. Seroprevalence of Scrub Typhus, Typhus, and Spotted Fever Among Rural and Urban Populations of Northern Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trung, Nguyen Vu; Hoi, Le Thi; Thuong, Nguyen Thi Hong; Toan, Tran Khanh; Huong, Tran Thi Kieu; Hoa, Tran Mai; Fox, Annette; Kinh, Nguyen van; van Doorn, H Rogier; Wertheim, Heiman F L; Bryant, Juliet E; Nadjm, Behzad

    2017-05-01

    AbstractRickettsial infections are recognized as important causes of fever throughout southeast Asia. Herein, we determined the seroprevalence to rickettsioses within rural and urban populations of northern Vietnam. Prevalence of individuals with evidence of prior rickettsial infections (IgG positive) was surprisingly low, with 9.14% (83/908) testing positive to the three major rickettsial serogroups thought to circulate in the region. Prevalence of typhus group rickettsiae (TG)-specific antibodies (6.5%, 58/908) was significantly greater than scrub typhus group orientiae (STG)- or spotted fever group rickettsiae (SFG)-specific antibodies ( P < 0.05). The majority of TG seropositives were observed among urban rather than rural residents ( P < 0.05). In contrast, overall antibody prevalence to STG and SFG were both very low (1.1%, 10/908 for STG; 1.7%, 15/908 for SFG), with no significant differences between rural and urban residents. These results provide data on baseline population characteristics that may help inform development of Rickettsia serological testing criteria in future clinical studies.

  1. Screening mammography uptake within Australia and Scotland in rural and urban populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Janni; Macleod, Catriona; McLaughlin, Deirdre; Woods, Laura M; Henderson, Robert; Watson, Angus; Kyle, Richard G; Hubbard, Gill; Mullen, Russell; Atherton, Iain

    2015-01-01

    To test the hypothesis that rural populations had lower uptake of screening mammography than urban populations in the Scottish and Australian setting. Scottish data are based upon information from the Scottish Breast Screening Programme Information System describing uptake among women residing within the NHS Highland Health Board area who were invited to attend for screening during the 2008 to 2010 round (N = 27,416). Australian data were drawn from the 2010 survey of the 1946-51 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (N = 9890 women). Contrary to our hypothesis, results indicated that women living in rural areas were not less likely to attend for screening mammography compared to women living in urban areas in both Scotland (OR for rural = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.06-1.29) and Australia (OR for rural = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.01-1.31). The absence of rural-urban differences in attendance at screening mammography demonstrates that rurality is not necessarily an insurmountable barrier to screening mammography.

  2. Estimates of the Resident Nonimmigrant Population in the United States: 2008

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report presents estimates on the size and characteristics of the resident nonimmigrant population in the United States in 2008.1 The estimates were based on...

  3. Estimates of the Lawful Permanent Resident Population in the United States: January 2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report presents estimates of the lawful permanent resident (LPR) population living in the United States on January 1, 2013. The LPR population includes persons...

  4. Estimates of the Lawful Permanent Resident Population in the United States: January 2014

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report presents estimates of the lawful permanent resident (LPR) population living in the United States on January 1, 2014. The LPR population includes persons...

  5. Urban "accidental" wetlands mediate water quality and heat exposure for homeless populations in a desert city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palta, M.

    2015-12-01

    In urban settings where humans interact in complex ways with ecosystems, there may be hidden or unanticipated benefits (services) or harm (disservices) conferred by the built environment. We examined interactions of a highly vulnerable population, the homeless, with urban waterways and wetlands in the desert city of Phoenix, Arizona, U.S.A. Climate change models project increases in heat, droughts, and extreme floods for the southwestern U.S. These projected changes pose a number of problems for sustainability and quality of future water supply, and the ability of human populations to mitigate heat stress and avoid fatalities. Urban wetlands that are created "accidentally" (by water pooling in abandoned areas of the landscape) have many structural (e.g., soils and hydrology) and functional (e.g., high denitrification) elements that mimic natural, unaltered aquatic systems. Accidental wetland systems in the dry bed of the Salt River, fed by storm and waste water from urban Phoenix, are located within economically depressed sections of the city, and show the potential for pollutant and heat mitigation. We used a mixed-method socio-ecological approach to examine wetland ecosystem functions and the ways in which homeless populations utilize Salt River wetlands for ecosystem services. Interviews and trash surveys indicated that homeless people are accessing and utilizing the wetlands as a source of running water, for sanitary and heat mitigation services, and for recreation and habitation. Environmental monitoring demonstrated that the wetlands can provide a reliable source of running water, nutrient and pathogen removal, heat mitigation, and privacy, but they may also pose a health risk to individuals coming in contact with the water through drinking or bathing. Whether wetlands provided a net benefit vs. harm varied according to site, season, and particular service, and several tradeoffs were identified. For example, heat is highest during the summer storm season

  6. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

  7. Variational Iterative Refinement Source Term Estimation Algorithm Assessment for Rural and Urban Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delle Monache, L.; Rodriguez, L. M.; Meech, S.; Hahn, D.; Betancourt, T.; Steinhoff, D.

    2016-12-01

    It is necessary to accurately estimate the initial source characteristics in the event of an accidental or intentional release of a Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear (CBRN) agent into the atmosphere. The accurate estimation of the source characteristics are important because many times they are unknown and the Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion (AT&D) models rely heavily on these estimates to create hazard assessments. To correctly assess the source characteristics in an operational environment where time is critical, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has developed a Source Term Estimation (STE) method, known as the Variational Iterative Refinement STE algorithm (VIRSA). VIRSA consists of a combination of modeling systems. These systems include an AT&D model, its corresponding STE model, a Hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian Plume Model (H-LEPM), and its mathematical adjoint model. In an operational scenario where we have information regarding the infrastructure of a city, the AT&D model used is the Urban Dispersion Model (UDM) and when using this model in VIRSA we refer to the system as uVIRSA. In all other scenarios where we do not have the city infrastructure information readily available, the AT&D model used is the Second-order Closure Integrated PUFF model (SCIPUFF) and the system is referred to as sVIRSA. VIRSA was originally developed using SCIPUFF 2.4 for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and integrated into the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability and Joint Program for Information Systems Joint Effects Model. The results discussed here are the verification and validation of the upgraded system with SCIPUFF 3.0 and the newly implemented UDM capability. To verify uVIRSA and sVIRSA, synthetic concentration observation scenarios were created in urban and rural environments and the results of this verification are shown. Finally, we validate the STE performance of uVIRSA using scenarios from the Joint Urban 2003 (JU03

  8. Does higher body mass index contribute to worse asthma control in an urban population?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clerisme-Beaty, Emmanuelle M; Karam, Sabine; Rand, Cynthia; Patino, Cecilia M; Bilderback, Andrew; Riekert, Kristin A; Okelo, Sande O.; Diette, Gregory B.

    2009-01-01

    Background Epidemiologic findings support a positive association between asthma and obesity. Objective Determine whether obesity or increasing level of body mass index (BMI) are associated with worse asthma control in an ethnically diverse urban population. Methods Cross sectional assessment of asthma control was done in asthmatics recruited from primary care offices using four different validated asthma control questionnaires: the Asthma Control and Communication Instrument (ACCI), the Asthma Control Test (ACT), the Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) and the Asthma Therapy Assessment Questionnaire (ATAQ). Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association between obesity and increasing BMI level and asthma control. Results Of 292 subjects mean age of 47 years, the majority were women (82%) and African American (67%). There was a high prevalence of obesity with 63%, with only 15% being normal weight. The mean score from all four questionnaires showed an average sub-optimal asthma control (mean score/maximum possible score): ACCI (8.3/19), ACT (15.4/ 25), ACQ (2.1/ 6), and ATAQ (1.3/ 4). Regression analysis showed no association between obesity or increasing BMI level and asthma control using all four questionnaires. This finding persisted even after adjusting for FEV1, smoking status, race, gender, selected co-morbid illnesses, and long-term asthma controller use. Conclusion Using four validated asthma control questionnaires, we failed to find an association between obesity and asthma control in an urban population with asthma. Weight loss may not be an appropriate strategy to improve asthma control in this population. Capsule Summary Using four different validated asthma control measures, there was no association between obesity or increasing body mass index and asthma control in a largely obese urban outpatient minority population. PMID:19615731

  9. A Global-Scale Estimate of Ecosystem Services from Urban Agriculture: Understanding Incentives for Natural Capital in Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, N.; Stuhlmacher, M.; Miles, A.; Uludere, N.; Wagner, M.; Georgescu, M.; Herwig, C.; Gong, P.

    2017-12-01

    Despite substantial interest in urban agriculture, little is known about the aggregate benefits conferred by natural capital for growing food in cities. Here we perform a scenario-based analysis to quantify ecosystem services from adoption of urban agriculture at varying intensity. To drive the scenarios, we created global-scale estimates of vacant land, rooftop and building surface area, at one kilometer resolution, from remotely sensed and modeled geospatial data. We used national scale agricultural reports, climate and other geospatial data at global scale to estimate agricultural production and economic returns, storm-water avoidance, energy savings from avoided heating and cooling costs, and ecosystem services provided by nitrogen sequestration, pollination and biocontrol of pests. The results indicate that vacant lands, followed by rooftops, represent the largest opportunities for natural capital put to agricultural use in urban areas. Ecosystem services from putting such spaces to productive use are dominated by agricultural returns, but energy savings conferred by insulative characteristics of growth substrate also provide economic incentives. Storm water avoidance was estimated to be substantial, but no economic value was estimated. Relatively low economic returns were estimated from the other ecosystem services examined. In aggregate, approximately $10-100 billion in economic incentives, before costs, were estimated. The results showed that relatively developed, high-income countries stand the most to gain from urban agricultural adoption due to the unique combination of climate, crop mixture and crop prices. While the results indicate that urban agriculture is not a panacea for urban food security issues, there is potential to simultaneously ameliorate multiple issues around food, energy and water in urbanized areas.

  10. Experimental design and estimation of growth rate distributions in size-structured shrimp populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, H T; Davis, Jimena L; Ernstberger, Stacey L; Hu, Shuhua; Artimovich, Elena; Dhar, Arun K

    2009-01-01

    We discuss inverse problem results for problems involving the estimation of probability distributions using aggregate data for growth in populations. We begin with a mathematical model describing variability in the early growth process of size-structured shrimp populations and discuss a computational methodology for the design of experiments to validate the model and estimate the growth-rate distributions in shrimp populations. Parameter-estimation findings using experimental data from experiments so designed for shrimp populations cultivated at Advanced BioNutrition Corporation are presented, illustrating the usefulness of mathematical and statistical modeling in understanding the uncertainty in the growth dynamics of such populations

  11. On Assessment and Estimation of Potential Losses due to Land Subsidence in Urban Areas of Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abidin, Hasanuddin Z.; Andreas, Heri; Gumilar, Irwan; Sidiq, Teguh P.

    2016-04-01

    subsidence have also relation among each other, the accurate quantification of the potential losses caused by land subsidence in urban areas is not an easy task to accomplish. The direct losses can be easier to estimate than the indirect losses. For example, the direct losses due to land subsidence in Bandung was estimated to be at least 180 Million USD; but the indirect losses is still unknown.

  12. The Boston Methane Project: Mapping Surface Emissions to Inform Atmospheric Estimation of Urban Methane Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, N.; Crosson, E.; Down, A.; Hutyra, L.; Jackson, R. B.; McKain, K.; Rella, C.; Raciti, S. M.; Wofsy, S. C.

    2012-12-01

    Lost and unaccounted natural gas can amount to over 6% of Massachusetts' total annual greenhouse gas inventory (expressed as equivalent CO2 tonnage). An unknown portion of this loss is due to natural gas leaks in pipeline distribution systems. The objective of the Boston Methane Project is to estimate the overall leak rate from natural gas systems in metropolitan Boston, and to compare this flux with fluxes from the other primary methane emissions sources. Companion talks at this meeting describe the atmospheric measurement and modeling framework, and chemical and isotopic tracers that can partition total atmospheric methane flux into natural gas and non-natural gas components. This talk focuses on estimation of surface emissions that inform the atmospheric modeling and partitioning. These surface emissions include over 3,300 pipeline natural gas leaks in Boston. For the state of Massachusetts as a whole, the amount of natural gas reported as lost and unaccounted for by utility companies was greater than estimated landfill emissions by an order of magnitude. Moreover, these landfill emissions were overwhelmingly located outside of metro Boston, while gas leaks are concentrated in exactly the opposite pattern, increasing from suburban Boston toward the urban core. Work is in progress to estimate spatial distribution of methane emissions from wetlands and sewer systems. We conclude with a description of how these spatial data sets will be combined and represented for application in atmospheric modeling.

  13. Differences in heat-related mortality across four ecological regions with diverse urban, rural, and remote populations in British Columbia, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Sarah B; Wan, Victoria; Kosatsky, Tom

    2013-09-01

    Temperature-mortality analyses are challenging in rural and remote communities with small populations, but this information is needed for climate change and emergency planning. The geographic health areas of British Columbia, Canada were aggregated into four ecoregions delineated by microclimatic conditions. Time series models were used to estimate the effect of maximum apparent temperature on daily non-traumatic mortality. The population of the coldest ecoregion was most sensitive to hot weather, while the population of the hottest ecoregion was least sensitive. The effects were consistently strongest in decedents aged less than 75 years. A province-wide total of 815 deaths was attributed to hot weather over the 25-year study period, with 735 deaths in the most populous ecoregion. The framework described could be adapted to other climatically variable regions with urban, rural, and remote populations. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  14. Oral Health Inequalities between Rural and Urban Populations of the African and Middle East Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogunbodede, E O; Kida, I A; Madjapa, H S; Amedari, M; Ehizele, A; Mutave, R; Sodipo, B; Temilola, S; Okoye, L

    2015-07-01

    Although there have been major improvements in oral health, with remarkable advances in the prevention and management of oral diseases, globally, inequalities persist between urban and rural communities. These inequalities exist in the distribution of oral health services, accessibility, utilization, treatment outcomes, oral health knowledge and practices, health insurance coverage, oral health-related quality of life, and prevalence of oral diseases, among others. People living in rural areas are likely to be poorer, be less health literate, have more caries, have fewer teeth, have no health insurance coverage, and have less money to spend on dental care than persons living in urban areas. Rural areas are often associated with lower education levels, which in turn have been found to be related to lower levels of health literacy and poor use of health care services. These factors have an impact on oral health care, service delivery, and research. Hence, unmet dental care remains one of the most urgent health care needs in these communities. We highlight some of the conceptual issues relating to urban-rural inequalities in oral health, especially in the African and Middle East Region (AMER). Actions to reduce oral health inequalities and ameliorate rural-urban disparity are necessary both within the health sector and the wider policy environment. Recommended actions include population-specific oral health promotion programs, measures aimed at increasing access to oral health services in rural areas, integration of oral health into existing primary health care services, and support for research aimed at informing policy on the social determinants of health. Concerted efforts must be made by all stakeholders (governments, health care workforce, organizations, and communities) to reduce disparities and improve oral health outcomes in underserved populations. © International & American Associations for Dental Research 2015.

  15. An Evaluation of Population Density Mapping and Built up Area Estimates in Sri Lanka Using Multiple Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engstrom, R.; Soundararajan, V.; Newhouse, D.

    2017-12-01

    In this study we examine how well multiple population density and built up estimates that utilize satellite data compare in Sri Lanka. The population relationship is examined at the Gram Niladhari (GN) level, the lowest administrative unit in Sri Lanka from the 2011 census. For this study we have two spatial domains, the whole country and a 3,500km2 sub-sample, for which we have complete high spatial resolution imagery coverage. For both the entire country and the sub-sample we examine how consistent are the existing publicly available measures of population constructed from satellite imagery at predicting population density? For just the sub-sample we examine how well do a suite of values derived from high spatial resolution satellite imagery predict population density and how does our built up area estimate compare to other publicly available estimates. Population measures were obtained from the Sri Lankan census, and were downloaded from Facebook, WorldPoP, GPW, and Landscan. Percentage built-up area at the GN level was calculated from three sources: Facebook, Global Urban Footprint (GUF), and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL). For the sub-sample we have derived a variety of indicators from the high spatial resolution imagery. Using deep learning convolutional neural networks, an object oriented, and a non-overlapping block, spatial feature approach. Variables calculated include: cars, shadows (a proxy for building height), built up area, and buildings, roof types, roads, type of agriculture, NDVI, Pantex, and Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG) and others. Results indicate that population estimates are accurate at the higher, DS Division level but not necessarily at the GN level. Estimates from Facebook correlated well with census population (GN correlation of 0.91) but measures from GPW and WorldPop are more weakly correlated (0.64 and 0.34). Estimates of built-up area appear to be reliable. In the 32 DSD-subsample, Facebook's built- up area measure

  16. Prevalence of ischemic heart disease among urban population of Siliguri, West Bengal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mandal Sukanta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To determine the prevalence of ischemic heart disease and the associated risk factors among the urban population of Siliguri. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional survey of a random sample of the population aged ≥40 years old in the Municipal Corporation area of Siliguri. Study variables were age, sex, occupation, addiction, food habit, physical activity, body mass index, blood pressure, and electrocardiogram change. Results: Out of 250 individuals who took part in this study, 29 (11.6% had ischemic heart disease (IHD and 118 (47.2% had hypertension. Males had a higher (13.5% prevalence of IHD than females (9.4%. About 5% of the patients had asymptomatic IHD. IHD among the study population is significantly associated with hypertension and smoking.

  17. On the possibility of calibrating urban storm-water drainage models using gauge-based adjusted radar rainfall estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Ochoa-Rodriguez, S; Wang, L; Simoes, N; Onof, C; Maksimovi?, ?

    2013-01-01

    24/07/14 meb. Authors did not sign CTA. Traditionally, urban storm water drainage models have been calibrated using only raingauge data, which may result in overly conservative models due to the lack of spatial description of rainfall. With the advent of weather radars, radar rainfall estimates with higher temporal and spatial resolution have become increasingly available and have started to be used operationally for urban storm water model calibration and real time operation. Nonetheless,...

  18. Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Bouma, Menno J; Kohli, Vijay; Pascual, Mercedes

    2016-12-01

    The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria. Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India) that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors. Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a basis for more

  19. Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Santos-Vega

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria.Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors.Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a

  20. Are rapid population estimates accurate? A field trial of two different assessment methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grais, Rebecca F; Coulombier, Denis; Ampuero, Julia; Lucas, Marcelino E S; Barretto, Avertino T; Jacquier, Guy; Diaz, Francisco; Balandine, Serge; Mahoudeau, Claude; Brown, Vincent

    2006-09-01

    Emergencies resulting in large-scale displacement often lead to populations resettling in areas where basic health services and sanitation are unavailable. To plan relief-related activities quickly, rapid population size estimates are needed. The currently recommended Quadrat method estimates total population by extrapolating the average population size living in square blocks of known area to the total site surface. An alternative approach, the T-Square, provides a population estimate based on analysis of the spatial distribution of housing units taken throughout a site. We field tested both methods and validated the results against a census in Esturro Bairro, Beira, Mozambique. Compared to the census (population: 9,479), the T-Square yielded a better population estimate (9,523) than the Quadrat method (7,681; 95% confidence interval: 6,160-9,201), but was more difficult for field survey teams to implement. Although applicable only to similar sites, several general conclusions can be drawn for emergency planning.

  1. Neck pain in a sample of Greek urban population (fifteen to sixty-five years): analysis according to personal and socioeconomic characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stranjalis, George; Kalamatianos, Theodosis; Stavrinou, Lampis C; Tsamandouraki, Kiki; Alamanos, Yiannis

    2011-07-15

    A cross-sectional study of neck pain and its related aspects in a sample of Greek urban population (15-65 years). To estimate the prevalence of neck pain in a Greek urban population (15-65 years) and to study the association of neck pain with several socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. The results of several prevalence studies carried out in different populations indicate a high frequency of neck pain in the general population. Socioeconomic and demographic factors are likely to influence neck pain frequency and neck pain-associated burden. A 1000-person sample of the general Greek population (15-65 years) living in the Greek capital and other urban centers of the country was selected by multiple-stage sampling, with definition of sample quotas based on demographic characteristics. Data on neck pain and its related aspects, including healthcare utilization, as well as demographic, socioeconomic, and employment data, were collected through personal interviews. Of the 204 individuals who reported neck pain during the last month, 35 (17.2%) consulted a physician, 72 (35.3%) received medication, and 15 (7.4%) stayed in bed for some time, during this period and because of neck pain. The mean duration of pain for individuals who reported neck pain during the last month was 12 days. A total of 8.6% of working individuals who experienced neck pain during the last month reported work absenteeism due to this pain, during this period; the mean duration of absence was 4.6 days. Neck pain frequency was related to several sociodemographic factors. Female sex, increased age, and being married showed a statistically significant association with the presence of neck pain. The present results indicate that neck pain is a common symptom in the studied Greek urban population. Nevertheless, relatively few individuals seek medical advice for this symptom. Neck pain frequency is associated with age, sex, and marital status.

  2. Prevalence of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in Peru: report from PERUDIAB, a national urban population-based longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seclen, Segundo N; Rosas, Moises E; Arias, Arturo J; Huayta, Ernesto; Medina, Cecilia A

    2015-01-01

    We aimed to estimate the prevalences of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in a national sample in Peru and assess the relationships with selected sociodemographic variables. We estimated prevalence in PERUDIAB study participants, a nationwide, stratified urban and suburban population selected by random cluster sampling. Between 2010 and 2012, questionnaires were completed and blood tests obtained from 1677 adults ≥25 years of age. Known diabetes was defined as participants having been told so by a doctor or nurse and/or receiving insulin or oral antidiabetic agents. Newly diagnosed diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL determined during the study and without a previous diabetes diagnosis. IFG was defined as fasting plasma glucose of 100-125 mg/dL. The estimated national prevalence of diabetes was 7.0% (95% CI 5.3% to 8.7%) and it was 8.4% (95% CI 5.6% to 11.3%) in metropolitan Lima. No gender differences were detected. Known and newly diagnosed diabetes prevalences were estimated as 4.2% and 2.8%, respectively. A logistic regression response surface model showed a complex trend for an increased prevalence of diabetes in middle-aged individuals and in those with no formal education. Diabetes prevalence was higher in coastal (8.2%) than in highlands (4.5%; p=0.03), and jungle (3.5%; pdiabetes as an important public health problem, especially for middle-aged individuals and those with no formal education. 40% of the affected individuals were undiagnosed. The elevated prevalence of IFG shows that nearly a quarter of the adult population of Peru has an increased risk of diabetes.

  3. Estimation of Speciation and Distribution of {sup 131}I in urban and natural Environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hormann, Volker; Fischer, Helmut W. [University of Bremen, Institute of Environmental Physics, Otto-Hahn-Allee 1, 28359 Bremen (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    {sup 131}I is a radionuclide that may be introduced into natural and urban environments via several pathways. As a result of nuclear accidents it may be washed out from air or settle onto the ground by dry deposition. In urban landscapes this is again washed out by rain, partly introduced into the sewer system and thus transported to the next wastewater plant where it may accumulate in certain compartments. In rural landscapes it may penetrate the soil and be more or less available to plant uptake depending on chemical and physical conditions. On a regular basis, {sup 131}I is released into the urban sewer system in the course of therapeutic and diagnostic treatment of patients with thyroid diseases. The speciation of iodine in the environment is complex. Depending on redox state and biological activity, it may appear as I{sup -}, IO{sub 3}{sup -}, I{sub 2} or bound to organic molecules (e.g. humic acids). Moreover, some of these species are bound to surfaces of particles suspended in water or present in soil, e.g. hydrous ferric oxides (HFO). It is to be expected that speciation and solid-liquid distribution of iodine strongly depends on environmental conditions. In this study, the speciation and solid-liquid distribution of iodine in environmental samples such as waste water, sewage sludge and soil are estimated with the help of the geochemical code PHREEQC. The calculations are carried out using chemical equilibrium and sorption data from the literature and chemical analyses of the media. We present the results of these calculations and compare them with experimental results of medical {sup 131}I in waste water and sewage sludge. The output of this study will be used in future work where transport and distribution of iodine in wastewater treatment plants and in irrigated agricultural soils will be modeled. (authors)

  4. Detecting population recovery using gametic disequilibrium-based effective population size estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    David A. Tallmon; Robin S. Waples; Dave Gregovich; Michael K. Schwartz

    2012-01-01

    Recovering populations often must meet specific growth rate or abundance targets before their legal status can be changed from endangered or threatened. While the efficacy, power, and performance of population metrics to infer trends in declining populations has received considerable attention, how these same metrics perform when populations are increasing is less...

  5. Prevalence and causes of low vision and blindness in an urban population: The Chennai Glaucoma Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijaya, Lingam; George, Ronnie; Asokan, Rashima; Velumuri, Lokapavani; Ramesh, Sathyamangalam Ve

    2014-04-01

    To evaluate the prevalence and causes of low vision and blindness in an urban south Indian population. Population-based cross-sectional study. Exactly 3850 subjects aged 40 years and above from Chennai city were examined at a dedicated facility in the base hospital. All subjects had a complete ophthalmic examination that included best-corrected visual acuity. Low vision and blindness were defined using World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. The influence of age, gender, literacy, and occupation was assessed using multiple logistic regression. Chi-square test, t-test, and multivariate analysis were used. Of the 4800 enumerated subjects, 3850 subjects (1710 males, 2140 females) were examined (response rate, 80.2%). The prevalence of blindness was 0.85% (95% CI 0.6-1.1%) and was positively associated with age and illiteracy. Cataract was the leading cause (57.6%) and glaucoma was the second cause (16.7%) for blindness. The prevalence of low vision was 2.9% (95% CI 2.4-3.4%) and visual impairment (blindness + low vision) was 3.8% (95% CI 3.2-4.4%). The primary causes for low vision were refractive errors (68%) and cataract (22%). In this urban population based study, cataract was the leading cause for blindness and refractive error was the main reason for low vision.

  6. Studies on manifestations of canine distemper virus infection in an urban dog population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blixenkrone-Møller, M; Svansson, V; Have, P; Orvell, C; Appel, M; Pedersen, I R; Dietz, H H; Henriksen, P

    1993-10-01

    An upsurge of canine distemper was recognized at the beginning of 1991 in the urban dog population of the Copenhagen area. The outbreak had the characteristics of a virulent morbillivirus introduction in a partly immune population, where the disease primarily was manifested in young individuals. Testing of single serum samples for the presence of canine distemper virus (CDV) IgM antibodies using an IgM ELISA confirmed current and recent CDV infections in an urban dog population, where the use of attenuated CDV vaccines was widespread. In 49 out of 66 sera from clinical cases suspected of canine distemper we detected CDV IgM antibodies, as compared to the detection of viral antigen by indirect immunofluorescence in 27 of 65 specimens of conjunctival cells. The antigenic make-up of isolates from acute and subacute clinical cases was investigated with a panel of 51 monoclonal antibodies directed against CDV and the related phocine distemper virus. The isolates exhibited an homogeneous reaction pattern and shared overall antigenic characteristics of the CDV prototype. The majority of cases were diagnosed among unvaccinated dogs and individuals with unknown or obscure vaccination record. However, severe clinical cases were also diagnosed in vaccinated individuals.

  7. [Use of psychoactive substances and contraceptive methods by the Brazilian urban population, 2005].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, Francisco I; Cunha, Cynthia B; Bertoni, Neilane

    2008-06-01

    To analyze the relationship between utilization patterns for condoms and other contraceptive methods and the consumption of alcohol and drugs. Exploratory study based on data from a probabilistic sample of 5,040 interviewees aged 16 to 65 years living in large urban regions of Brazil in 2005. The data were collected by means of questionnaires. The chi-square automatic interaction classification tree technique was used to study the use of condoms among interviewees of both sexes and other contraceptive methods among women, at the time of the last vaginal sexual intercourse. Among young and middle-aged adults of both sexes and young men in stable relationships, condom use was less frequent among those who said they used psychoactive substances (alcohol and/or illegal drugs). The possible modulating effect of psychoactive substances on contraceptive practices among mature women seems to be more straightforward, compared to the more subtle effects observed among younger women, for whom the different social classes they belonged to seemed to play a more important role. Despite the limitations resulting from an exploratory study, the fact that this was a representative sample of the urban population of Brazil and not from vulnerable populations, reinforces the need to implement integrated public policies directed towards the general population, with regard to preventing drug consumption, alcohol abuse, sexually transmitted infections, HIV/AIDS and unwanted pregnancy and promoting sexual and reproductive health.

  8. Morphometric characteristics of sycamore maple (Acer pseudoplatanus L. fruits in Novi Sad urban populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostić Saša

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows the results of the analysis of the fruit morphometric characteristics of 29 trees of sycamore maple (Acer pseudoplatanus L. and red - leaf sycamore maple (Acer pseudoplatanus ‘Аtropurpureum’ Späth. in Novi Sad area. Based on the test trees, it can be concluded that the analyzed secondary population of sycamore maple has a high level of intra - populations variability, based on different degrees of variability of measured parameters and statistically significant differences of all analyzed parameters within the analysed genotypes. The results indicate that there are certain differences between fruit of sycamore maple and its red - leaf variety. Given that there is no statistically significant difference between sites and different urban spaces, it can be concluded that stress factors caused by a high degree of urbanity do not affect the morphometric characteristics of fruits in the analyzed test trees. Testing the symmetry of fruits indicates a high level of genetic variability within the analyzed population.

  9. Prevalence and causes of low vision and blindness in an urban population: The Chennai Glaucoma Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lingam Vijaya

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To evaluate the prevalence and causes of low vision and blindness in an urban south Indian population. Settings and Design: Population-based cross-sectional study. Exactly 3850 subjects aged 40 years and above from Chennai city were examined at a dedicated facility in the base hospital. Materials and Methods: All subjects had a complete ophthalmic examination that included best-corrected visual acuity. Low vision and blindness were defined using World Health Organization (WHO criteria. The influence of age, gender, literacy, and occupation was assessed using multiple logistic regression. Statistical Analysis: Chi-square test, t-test, and multivariate analysis were used. Results: Of the 4800 enumerated subjects, 3850 subjects (1710 males, 2140 females were examined (response rate, 80.2%. The prevalence of blindness was 0.85% (95% CI 0.6-1.1% and was positively associated with age and illiteracy. Cataract was the leading cause (57.6% and glaucoma was the second cause (16.7% for blindness. The prevalence of low vision was 2.9% (95% CI 2.4-3.4% and visual impairment (blindness + low vision was 3.8% (95% CI 3.2-4.4%. The primary causes for low vision were refractive errors (68% and cataract (22%. Conclusions: In this urban population based study, cataract was the leading cause for blindness and refractive error was the main reason for low vision.

  10. Prevalence and causes of low vision and blindness in an urban population: The Chennai Glaucoma Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijaya, Lingam; George, Ronnie; Asokan, Rashima; Velumuri, Lokapavani; Ramesh, Sathyamangalam Ve

    2014-01-01

    Aim: To evaluate the prevalence and causes of low vision and blindness in an urban south Indian population. Settings and Design: Population-based cross-sectional study. Exactly 3850 subjects aged 40 years and above from Chennai city were examined at a dedicated facility in the base hospital. Materials and Methods: All subjects had a complete ophthalmic examination that included best-corrected visual acuity. Low vision and blindness were defined using World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. The influence of age, gender, literacy, and occupation was assessed using multiple logistic regression. Statistical Analysis: Chi-square test, t-test, and multivariate analysis were used. Results: Of the 4800 enumerated subjects, 3850 subjects (1710 males, 2140 females) were examined (response rate, 80.2%). The prevalence of blindness was 0.85% (95% CI 0.6–1.1%) and was positively associated with age and illiteracy. Cataract was the leading cause (57.6%) and glaucoma was the second cause (16.7%) for blindness. The prevalence of low vision was 2.9% (95% CI 2.4–3.4%) and visual impairment (blindness + low vision) was 3.8% (95% CI 3.2–4.4%). The primary causes for low vision were refractive errors (68%) and cataract (22%). Conclusions: In this urban population based study, cataract was the leading cause for blindness and refractive error was the main reason for low vision. PMID:23619490

  11. Toolbox for Urban Mobility Simulation: High Resolution Population Dynamics for Global Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaduri, B. L.; Lu, W.; Liu, C.; Thakur, G.; Karthik, R.

    2015-12-01

    In this rapidly urbanizing world, unprecedented rate of population growth is not only mirrored by increasing demand for energy, food, water, and other natural resources, but has detrimental impacts on environmental and human security. Transportation simulations are frequently used for mobility assessment in urban planning, traffic operation, and emergency management. Previous research, involving purely analytical techniques to simulations capturing behavior, has investigated questions and scenarios regarding the relationships among energy, emissions, air quality, and transportation. Primary limitations of past attempts have been availability of input data, useful "energy and behavior focused" models, validation data, and adequate computational capability that allows adequate understanding of the interdependencies of our transportation system. With increasing availability and quality of traditional and crowdsourced data, we have utilized the OpenStreetMap roads network, and has integrated high resolution population data with traffic simulation to create a Toolbox for Urban Mobility Simulations (TUMS) at global scale. TUMS consists of three major components: data processing, traffic simulation models, and Internet-based visualizations. It integrates OpenStreetMap, LandScanTM population, and other open data (Census Transportation Planning Products, National household Travel Survey, etc.) to generate both normal traffic operation and emergency evacuation scenarios. TUMS integrates TRANSIMS and MITSIM as traffic simulation engines, which are open-source and widely-accepted for scalable traffic simulations. Consistent data and simulation platform allows quick adaption to various geographic areas that has been demonstrated for multiple cities across the world. We are combining the strengths of geospatial data sciences, high performance simulations, transportation planning, and emissions, vehicle and energy technology development to design and develop a simulation

  12. Estimating sequestered parasite population dynamics in cerebral malaria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gravenor, M. B.; van Hensbroek, M. B.; Kwiatkowski, D.

    1998-01-01

    Clinical investigation of malaria is hampered by the lack of a method for estimating the number of parasites that are sequestered in the tissues, for it is these parasites that are thought to be crucial to the pathogenesis of life-threatening complications such as cerebral malaria. We present a

  13. Application of High Performance Computing to Earthquake Hazard and Disaster Estimation in Urban Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muneo Hori

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Integrated earthquake simulation (IES is a seamless simulation of analyzing all processes of earthquake hazard and disaster. There are two difficulties in carrying out IES, namely, the requirement of large-scale computation and the requirement of numerous analysis models for structures in an urban area, and they are solved by taking advantage of high performance computing (HPC and by developing a system of automated model construction. HPC is a key element in developing IES, as it needs to analyze wave propagation and amplification processes in an underground structure; a model of high fidelity for the underground structure exceeds a degree-of-freedom larger than 100 billion. Examples of IES for Tokyo Metropolis are presented; the numerical computation is made by using K computer, the supercomputer of Japan. The estimation of earthquake hazard and disaster for a given earthquake scenario is made by the ground motion simulation and the urban area seismic response simulation, respectively, for the target area of 10,000 m × 10,000 m.

  14. Association of Neck Circumference and Obesity with Blood Pressure among Adolescents in Urban and Rural Population in North Tamil Nadu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajagopalan, Archana; Balaji, Nisha

    2017-01-01

    Since a few studies exist on the association of neck circumference (NC) and obesity with blood pressure (BP) among adolescents in India, we found it highly relevant to measure the NC and body mass index (BMI) using them as indicators of upper body subcutaneous fat and obesity and relate them to BP in a rural and urban adolescent population in North Tamil Nadu. This is a community-based cross-sectional study of descriptive design where 500 students from urban and rural areas were selected, and their BMI, NC, and BP were measured using standardized instruments. Among urban and rural population high and normal NC positively correlated with BMI, systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP), indicating that the data clearly reflects increase in BMI, SBP, and DBP values with increase in NC or vice versa. The correlation was statistically significant ( P < 0.001) significantly higher BMI ( P < 0.01), SBP ( P < 0.05), and NC ( P < 0.001) was observed in urban population than rural. DBP was not significantly different in rural and urban population. 95 th percentile values are significantly higher than rest in both urban and rural population. Only the 95 th percentile values correlate and reflect similar changes in BMI, SBP, and DBP. Our studies indicate a strong association of elevation in BP with high NC and increase in BMI. Overweight and obesity were positively correlated with increase in SBP and DBP.

  15. Prayer Attendance and General Health in the Iranian Adult Urban Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotodehasl, Nemat; Ghorbani, Raheb; Mahdavi-Nejad, Gholamhosein; Haji-Aghajani, Saeed; Mehdizadeh, Jamileh

    2016-02-01

    This study was conducted to determine the relationship between prayer attendance and general health among adult urban population in Iran. A total of 470 males older than 17 years, chosen by multistage sampling, were investigated. The results showed that people who did not perform prayers compared to those who said prayers on time and performed Nafilahs (supererogatory prayers) were 2.87 (OR 2.87, 95 % CI 1.23-6.70, p = 0.015) times at risk of general health problems. In conclusion, the findings show that increasing the degree of people's belief in prayer can lead to improve general health.

  16. Bridging the gaps between non-invasive genetic sampling and population parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francesca Marucco; Luigi Boitani; Daniel H. Pletscher; Michael K. Schwartz

    2011-01-01

    Reliable estimates of population parameters are necessary for effective management and conservation actions. The use of genetic data for capture­recapture (CR) analyses has become an important tool to estimate population parameters for elusive species. Strong emphasis has been placed on the genetic analysis of non-invasive samples, or on the CR analysis; however,...

  17. Use of bird carcass removals by urban scavengers to adjust bird-window collision estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justine A. Kummer

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Carcass removal by scavengers has been identified as one of the largest biases in estimating bird mortality from anthropogenic sources. Only two studies have examined carcass removal by scavengers in an urban environment, and previous estimates of bird-window collision mortality at houses have relied on carcass removal rates from wind turbine studies. We placed a bird carcass and time-lapse camera at 44 houses in Edmonton, Alberta. In total, 166 7-day trials were conducted throughout 2015. Time-to-event (survival analysis was used to identify covariates that affected removal. The carcass removal rate was determined for use in estimating the number of birds killed from bird-window collisions at houses in Alberta. In total, 67.5% of carcasses were removed. The date the carcass was placed, the year the house was built, and the level of development within 50 m of the house were the covariates that had the largest effect on carcass removal. In calculating our removal rate, the number of detected carcasses in the first 24 hours was adjusted by 1.47 to account for removal by scavengers. Previously collected citizen science data were used to create an estimate of 957,440 bird deaths each year in Alberta as a result of bird-window collisions with houses. This number is based on the most detailed bird-window collision study at houses to date and a carcass removal study conducted in the same area. Similar localized studies across Canada will need to be completed to reduce the biases that exist with the previous bird-window collision mortality estimate for houses in Canada.

  18. [Ageing and chronic diseases in Senegal. A comparison between rural (Ferlo) and urban (Dakar) populations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duboz, P; Touré, M; Hane, F; Macia, E; Coumé, M; Bâ, A; Boëtsch, G; Guèye, L; Chapuis-Lucciani, N

    2015-02-01

    The objectives of this study were: to compare the prevalence of hypertension, overweight and obesity in rural (Ferlo) and urban (Dakar) Senegalese populations aged 50 and over. The survey was conducted on individuals aged 50 and older living in the rural area (N=478) and in the urban area (N=220). We have collected data about age, gender, marital status, education level, and knowledge, treatment of hypertension, height, weight and blood pressure. We have observed that overweight and obesity were more prevalent in the urban area (Dakar) than in the rural one (Ferlo). The risk of overweight or obesity decreased when age increased, and women had weight problems more often than men. The prevalence of arterial hypertension was lower in rural area (55.86%) than in Dakar (66.36%), but increased at an older age. However, the logistic regression showed that these increased proportion of hypertension in Dakar is linked to the more important proportion of overweight and obese people in this area. Moreover, rates of knowledge, treatment and control of hypertension are particularly low in the rural area of Senegal. In conclusion, age-associated diseases should be better managed in Senegal, particularly in rural areas.

  19. Counting and confusion: Bayesian rate estimation with multiple populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farr, Will M.; Gair, Jonathan R.; Mandel, Ilya; Cutler, Curt

    2015-01-01

    We show how to obtain a Bayesian estimate of the rates or numbers of signal and background events from a set of events when the shapes of the signal and background distributions are known, can be estimated, or approximated; our method works well even if the foreground and background event distributions overlap significantly and the nature of any individual event cannot be determined with any certainty. We give examples of determining the rates of gravitational-wave events in the presence of background triggers from a template bank when noise parameters are known and/or can be fit from the trigger data. We also give an example of determining globular-cluster shape, location, and density from an observation of a stellar field that contains a nonuniform background density of stars superimposed on the cluster stars.

  20. ESTIMATION OF THE BURDEN OF PESTICIDE RESIDUES IN SLOVAK POPULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jozef Sokol

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Pesticides used in the agriculture have to be applied according to the requirements of good agricultural practice and appropriate law. Pesticides leave detectable residues in agricultural crops, raw materials and ecosystem components. Pesticides reach the human population through the food chain. Information on the type and concentration of pesticide residues in food is in Slovakia collected trough the monitoring programs. Health risks associated with pesticides contaminants in human nutrition are very important and are recently studied by several expert groups. Prerequisite programs are necessary to protect public health. Risk analysis and monitoring of the population burden by pesticide contaminants have to be performed in expert level. The general strategy for assessment of toxicity of pesticides is listed by the World health Organisation. Scientific risk assessment is the basis for taking action and making the legislation at national and European community level.doi:10.5219/69

  1. Field Test of Gopher Tortoise (Gopherus Polyphemus) Population Estimation Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-04-01

    Web (WWW) at URL: http://www.cecer.army.mil ERDC/CERL TR-08-7 4 2 Field Tests The gopher tortoise is a species of conservation concern in the... ncv D ⎛ ⎞⎛ ⎞ = ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ ⎝ ⎠⎝ ⎠ (4) where: L = estimate of line length to be sampled b = dispersion parameter 2ˆ( )tcv D = desired coefficient of

  2. The study to estimate the floating population in Seoul, Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Geon Woo; Lee, Yong Jin; Kim, Youngeun; Hong, Seung-Han; Kim, Soohwaun; Kim, Jeong Soo; Lee, Jong Tae; Shin, Dong Chun; Lim, Youngwook

    2017-01-01

    Traffic-related pollutants have been reported to increase the morbidity of respiratory diseases. In order to apply management policies related to motor vehicles, studies of the floating population living in cities are important. The rate of metro rail transit system use by passengers residing in Seoul is about 54% of total public transportation use. Through the rate of metro use, the people-flow ratios in each administrative area were calculated. By applying a people-flow ratio based on the o...

  3. The influence of coyotes on an urban Canada goose population in the Chicago metropolitan area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Justin L.; /Ohio State U.

    2007-01-01

    Canada geese (Branta canadensis) have become common in many urban areas, often creating nuisance problems for human residents. The presence of urban geese has raised concerns about the spread of disease, increased erosion, excessive noise, eutrophication of waterways, and general nuisance problems. Goose populations have grown due to an increase in urbanization resulting in an abundance of high quality food (urban grass) and suitable nesting sites, as well as a decrease in some predators. I monitored nest predation in the Chicago suburbs during the 2004 and 2005 nesting seasons using 3 nest monitoring techniques to identify predators: video cameras, plasticine eggs, and sign from nest using a classification tree analysis. Of 58 nests monitored in 2004 and 286 in 2005, only raccoons (Procyon lotor) and coyotes (Canis latrans) were identified as nest predators. Raccoons were responsible for 22-25% of depredated nests, but were rarely capable of depredating nests that were actively defended by a goose. Coyotes were responsible for 75-78% of all Canada goose nest depredation and were documented killing one adult goose and feeding on several others. The coyote is a top-level predator that had increased in many metropolitan areas in recent years. To determine if coyotes were actively hunting geese or eggs during the nesting season, I analyzed coyote habitat selection between nesting and pre-nesting or post-nesting seasons. Coyote home ranges (95% Minimum Convex Polygon) were calculated for 19 coyotes to examine third order habitat selection related to goose nest abundance. A 100 m buffer (buffer habitat) was created and centered on each waterway edge and contained 90% of all nests. Coyotes showed selection for habitats during all seasons. Buffer habitat was the top ranked habitat in both pre-nesting and nesting seasons, but dropped to third ranked in post-nesting season. Habitat selection across seasons was compared using a repeated measures MANOVA. Habitat selection

  4. Estimating cancer risks induced by CT screening for Korea population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Hye Jeong; Yang, Won Seok

    2016-01-01

    Computed Tomography(CT) has been used to diagnose early stages of cancer and other diseases. Since the number of CT screening has been increasing, there is now a debate about the possible benefits and risks of CT screening on asymptomatic individuals. CT screening has definite benefits, however the radiation risk of screening an asymptomatic individual is a serious problem that cannot be overlooked. Despite its potential risks, CT screening for asymptomatic individual has been gradually increased in Korea and it is attributed to increase collective effective dose. Therefore, we reported the risk level of each organ which is included in scan field for CT screening and analyzed and then evaluated the risk level of Korean population comparison to others, Hong Kong, U.S. and U.K. populations. LARs are lower with older ages for all populations of both sexes. We recommend CT screening after the age of 40 because from that age, LAR decreases and the danger of top 5 cancer increases.

  5. Ecotypic differentiation between urban and rural populations of the grasshopper Chorthippus brunneus relative to climate and habitat fragmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    San Martin Y Gomez, Gilles; Van Dyck, Hans

    2012-05-01

    Urbanization alters environmental conditions in multiple ways and offers an ecological or evolutionary challenge for organisms to cope with. Urban areas typically have a warmer climate and strongly fragmented herbaceous vegetation; the urban landscape matrix is often assumed to be hostile for many organisms. Here, we addressed the issue of evolutionary differentiation between urban and rural populations of an ectotherm insect, the grasshopper Chorthippus brunneus. We compared mobility-related morphology and climate-related life history traits measured on the first generation offspring of grasshoppers from urban and rural populations reared in a common garden laboratory experiment. We predicted (1) the urban phenotype to be more mobile (i.e., lower mass allocation to the abdomen, longer relative femur and wing lengths) than the rural phenotype; (2) the urban phenotype to be more warm adapted (e.g., higher female body mass); and (3) further evidence of local adaptation in the form of significant interaction effects between landscape of origin and breeding temperature. Both males and females of urban origin had significantly longer relative femur and wing lengths and lower mass allocation to the abdomen (i.e., higher investment in thorax and flight muscles) relative to individuals of rural origin. The results were overall significant but small (2-4%). Body mass and larval growth rate were much higher (+10%) in females of urban origin. For the life history traits, we did not find evidence for significant interaction effects between the landscape of origin and the two breeding temperatures. Our results point to ecotypic differentiation with urbanization for mobility-related morphology and climate-related life history traits. We argue that the warmer urban environment has an indirect effect through longer growth season rather than direct effects on the development.

  6. Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M

    2017-09-01

    A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify

  7. Decomposing the causes of socioeconomic-related health inequality among urban and rural populations in China: a new decomposition approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Jiaoli; Coyte, Peter C; Zhao, Hongzhong

    2017-07-18

    In recent decades, China has experienced tremendous economic growth and also witnessed growing socioeconomic-related health inequality. The study aims to explore the potential causes of socioeconomic-related health inequality in urban and rural areas of China over the past two decades. This study used six waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) from 1991 to 2006. The recentered influence function (RIF) regression decomposition method was employed to decompose socioeconomic-related health inequality in China. Health status was derived from self-rated health (SRH) scores. The analyses were conducted on urban and rural samples separately. We found that the average level of health status declined from 1989 to 2006 for both urban and rural populations. Average health scores were greater for the rural population compared with those for the urban population. We also found that there exists pro-rich health inequality in China. While income and secondary education were the main factors to reduce health inequality, older people, unhealthy lifestyles and a poor home environment increased inequality. Health insurance had the opposite effects on health inequality for urban and rural populations, resulting in lower inequality for urban populations and higher inequality for their rural counterparts. These findings suggest that an effective way to reduce socioeconomic-related health inequality is not only to increase income and improve access to health care services, but also to focus on improvements in the lifestyles and the home environment. Specifically, for rural populations, it is particularly important to improve the design of health insurance and implement a more comprehensive insurance package that can effectively target the rural poor. Moreover, it is necessary to comprehensively promote the flush toilets and tap water in rural areas. For urban populations, in addition to promoting universal secondary education, healthy lifestyles should be promoted

  8. Understanding and estimating effective population size for practical application in marine species management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hare, Matthew P; Nunney, Leonard; Schwartz, Michael K; Ruzzante, Daniel E; Burford, Martha; Waples, Robin S; Ruegg, Kristen; Palstra, Friso

    2011-06-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) determines the strength of genetic drift in a population and has long been recognized as an important parameter for evaluating conservation status and threats to genetic health of populations. Specifically, an estimate of N(e) is crucial to management because it integrates genetic effects with the life history of the species, allowing for predictions of a population's current and future viability. Nevertheless, compared with ecological and demographic parameters, N(e) has had limited influence on species management, beyond its application in very small populations. Recent developments have substantially improved N(e) estimation; however, some obstacles remain for the practical application of N(e) estimates. For example, the need to define the spatial and temporal scale of measurement makes the concept complex and sometimes difficult to interpret. We reviewed approaches to estimation of N(e) over both long-term and contemporary time frames, clarifying their interpretations with respect to local populations and the global metapopulation. We describe multiple experimental factors affecting robustness of contemporary N(e) estimates and suggest that different sampling designs can be combined to compare largely independent measures of N(e) for improved confidence in the result. Large populations with moderate gene flow pose the greatest challenges to robust estimation of contemporary N(e) and require careful consideration of sampling and analysis to minimize estimator bias. We emphasize the practical utility of estimating N(e) by highlighting its relevance to the adaptive potential of a population and describing applications in management of marine populations, where the focus is not always on critically endangered populations. Two cases discussed include the mechanisms generating N(e) estimates many orders of magnitude lower than census N in harvested marine fishes and the predicted reduction in N(e) from hatchery-based population

  9. Outcomes of cataract surgery in a rural and urban south Indian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijaya Lingam

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To assess the visual outcome after cataract surgery in a south Indian population. Materials and Methods: Population-based cross-sectional study of subjects aged 40 years or more. Three thousand nine hundred and twenty-four rural subjects from 27 contiguous villages and 3850 urban subjects from five randomly selected divisions were studied. All subjects underwent a comprehensive ophthalmic examination that included visual acuity, refraction, slit-lamp biomicroscopy, applanation tonometry, gonioscopy, and dilated retinal examination. Statistical Analysis: Chi square test, t test and multivariate analysis were used. Results: Five hundred and twenty-eight (216 males, 312 females, 781 eyes rural subjects (13.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI 12.4% to 14.6% and 406 (197 males, 209 females, 604 eyes urban subjects (10.5%, 95% CI 9.6-11.5% had undergone cataract surgery. Outcome of cataract surgery was defined based on visual acuity. Using best-corrected visual acuity for classification, the single most important cause for visual impairment was cystoid macular edema in the aphakic group and posterior capsule opacification in the pseudophakic group. Aphakia (visual acuity of < 20/60 to ≤ 20/400 - odds ratio (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.3 to 2.6%, visual acuity of < 20/400 - OR 6.2; 95% 4.0 to 9.8%, rural residence (visual acuity of < 20/60 to ≤ 20/400 - OR 3.2; 95% CI 2.2 to 4.5% and visual acuity of < 20/400 - OR OR 3.5; 95% CI 2.3 to 5.5% were associated with visual impairment. The urban cataract-operated population had significantly more pseudophakics ( P < 0.001, men ( P = 0.02 and literates ( P < 0.001. In the rural group the prevalence of cataract surgery (13.5% vs. 10.5%, P < 0.001 and number of people that had undergone cataract surgery within three years prior to examination ( P < 0.001 were significantly greater. In 30% of rural and 16% of urban subjects uncorrected refraction was the cause of visual impairment. Conclusions: Surgery

  10. Blindness and visual impairment in an urban West African population: the Tema Eye Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budenz, Donald L; Bandi, Jagadeesh R; Barton, Keith; Nolan, Winifred; Herndon, Leon; Whiteside-de Vos, Julia; Hay-Smith, Graham; Kim, Hanna; Tielsch, James

    2012-09-01

    To determine the prevalence, causes, and risk factors of blindness and visual impairment among persons aged 40 years or older residing in an urban West African location. Population-based, cross-sectional study. A total of 5603 participants residing in Tema, Ghana. Proportionate random cluster sampling was used to select participants aged 40 years or older living in the city of Tema. Presenting distance visual acuity (VA) was measured at 4 and 1 m using a reduced logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution tumbling E chart and then with trial frame based on autorefraction. A screening examination was performed in the field on all participants. Complete clinical examination by an ophthalmologist was performed on participants with best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) Tema, Ghana, West Africa. Refractive error is a major cause of blindness and visual impairment in this population, followed by cataract, glaucoma, and corneal disease. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Primary care utilisation patterns among an urban immigrant population in the Spanish National Health System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bordonaba-Bosque Daniel

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is evidence suggesting that the use of health services is lower among immigrants after adjusting for age and sex. This study takes a step forward to compare primary care (PC utilisation patterns between immigrants and the native population with regard to their morbidity burden. Methods This retrospective, observational study looked at 69,067 individuals representing the entire population assigned to three urban PC centres in the city of Zaragoza (Aragon, Spain. Poisson models were applied to determine the number of annual PC consultations per individual based on immigration status. All models were first adjusted for age and sex and then for age, sex and case mix (ACG System®. Results The age and sex adjusted mean number of total annual consultations was lower among the immigrant population (children: IRR = 0.79, p Conclusions Although immigrants make lower use of PC services than the native population after adjusting the consultation rate for age and sex, these differences decrease significantly when considering their morbidity burden. These results reinforce the 'healthy migration effect' and discount the existence of differences in PC utilisation patterns between the immigrant and native populations in Spain.

  12. The light pollution as a surrogate for urban population of the US cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Operti, Felipe G.; Oliveira, Erneson A.; Carmona, Humberto A.; Machado, Javam C.; Andrade, José S.

    2018-02-01

    We show that the definition of the city boundaries can have a dramatic influence on the scaling behavior of the night-time light (NTL) as a function of population (POP) in the US. Precisely, our results show that the arbitrary geopolitical definition based on the Metropolitan/Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA/CMSA) leads to a sublinear power-law growth of NTL with POP. On the other hand, when cities are defined according to a more natural agglomeration criteria, namely, the City Clustering Algorithm (CCA), an isometric relation emerges between NTL and population. This discrepancy is compatible with results from previous works showing that the scaling behaviors of various urban indicators with population can be substantially different for distinct definitions of city boundaries. Moreover, considering the CCA definition as more adequate than the MSA/CMSA one because the former does not violate the expected extensivity between land population and area of their generated clusters, we conclude that, without loss of generality, the CCA measures of light pollution and population could be interchangeably utilized in future studies.

  13. Attitudes towards suicide in urban and rural China: a population based, cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Yaming; Leung, Ricky; Lin, Shao; Yang, Mingan; Lu, Tao; Li, Xianyun; Gu, Jing; Hao, Chun; Dong, Guanghui; Hao, Yuantao

    2016-05-26

    Suicide intervention programs have been guided by findings that attitude towards suicide and suicidal behavior may be causally linked. These findings also make it imperative to identify the factors that influence attitudes towards suicide. However, there has been little research on attitudes towards suicide among the general population, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. This population-based, cross-sectional study investigated the associated factors of attitudes towards suicide among a representative sample of urban and rural adult residents in China. A multi-stage, stratified random sampling approach was implemented to select participants. Data were collected by a survey using the Scale of Public Attitudes about Suicide (SPAS). The survey also collected some socio-demographic factors and suicidal history of participants. Statistical tests were conducted to identify associated factors that account for variations in attitudes towards suicide. The residents in China generally hold a neutral attitude towards suicide. Attitudes towards suicide among Chinese residents were associated with age, duration of formal education, marital status, job and suicidal ideation. Different attitudinal subscales seemed not to share the same risk factors. However, gender, ethnicity, religious belief, housing style and economic status might not influence residents' attitudes towards suicide. Attitudes towards suicide among Chinese urban and rural residents generally had no statistical difference with one notable exception: opinions on whether or not suicides and suicide attempts are different phenomena. Age, duration of formal education, marital status, job and suicidal ideation seem to have an impact on attitudes towards suicide among residents. Urban and rural residents have similar attitudes towards suicide with the only statistically significance difference being their opinions on whether or not suicides and suicide attempts are different phenomena.

  14. Quality of Life in rural and urban populations in Lebanon using SF-36 Health Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retel-Rude Nathalie

    2003-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Measuring health status in a population is important for the evaluation of interventions and the prediction of health and social care needs. Quality of life (QoL studies are an essential complement to medical evaluation but most of the tools available in this area are in English. In order to evaluated QoL in rural and urban areas in Lebanon, the short form 36 health survey (SF-36 was adapted into Arabic. Methods SF-36 was administered in a cross-sectional study, to collect sociodemographic and environmental variables as well as self reported morbidity. We analysed a representative sample containing 1632 subjects, from whom we randomly picked 524 subjects aged 14 years and over. The translation, cultural adaptation and validation of the SF-36 followed the International Quality of Life Assessment methodology. Multivariate analysis (generalized linear model was performed to test the effect of habitat (rural on urban areas on all domains of the SF-36. Results The rate of missing data is very low (0.23% of items. Item level validation supported the assumptions underlying Likert scoring. SF-36 scale scores showed wide variability and acceptable internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha >0.70, factor analysis yielded patterns of factor correlation comparable to that found in the U.S.A and France. Patients resident in rural areas had higher vitality scores than those in urban areas. Older people reported more satisfaction with some domains of life than younger people, except for physical functioning. The QoL of women is poorer than men; certain symptoms and morbidity independently influence the domains of SF-36 in this population. Conclusion The results support the validity of the SF-36 Arabic version. Habitat has a minor influence on QoL, women had a poor QoL, and health problems had differential impact on QoL.

  15. Quality of Life in rural and urban populations in Lebanon using SF-36 Health Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbah, Ibtissam; Drouby, Nabil; Sabbah, Sanaa; Retel-Rude, Nathalie; Mercier, Mariette

    2003-01-01

    Background Measuring health status in a population is important for the evaluation of interventions and the prediction of health and social care needs. Quality of life (QoL) studies are an essential complement to medical evaluation but most of the tools available in this area are in English. In order to evaluated QoL in rural and urban areas in Lebanon, the short form 36 health survey (SF-36) was adapted into Arabic. Methods SF-36 was administered in a cross-sectional study, to collect sociodemographic and environmental variables as well as self reported morbidity. We analysed a representative sample containing 1632 subjects, from whom we randomly picked 524 subjects aged 14 years and over. The translation, cultural adaptation and validation of the SF-36 followed the International Quality of Life Assessment methodology. Multivariate analysis (generalized linear model) was performed to test the effect of habitat (rural on urban areas) on all domains of the SF-36. Results The rate of missing data is very low (0.23% of items). Item level validation supported the assumptions underlying Likert scoring. SF-36 scale scores showed wide variability and acceptable internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha >0.70), factor analysis yielded patterns of factor correlation comparable to that found in the U.S.A and France. Patients resident in rural areas had higher vitality scores than those in urban areas. Older people reported more satisfaction with some domains of life than younger people, except for physical functioning. The QoL of women is poorer than men; certain symptoms and morbidity independently influence the domains of SF-36 in this population. Conclusion The results support the validity of the SF-36 Arabic version. Habitat has a minor influence on QoL, women had a poor QoL, and health problems had differential impact on QoL. PMID:12952543

  16. Overweight and Obesity above 18 years of Age in An Urban Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit Kumar Kamboj

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Today however, as standard of living continues to rise, weight gain and obesity are posing a growing threat to health in both developed and developing countries and affecting children as well as adults. Indeed, it is now so common that it is replacing the more traditional public health concern including under nutrition and infectious diseases. Overweight and obesity is a major risk factor for high morbidity and mortality. Obesity is an independent risk factor for chronic heart disease related morbidity and mortality. Aims and Objectives: To find out the prevalence of overweight & obesity and to suggest measures for prevention of overweight and obesity in adult population. Material and Method: To cover a sample size of 1152 in Urban Health Centre area population ≥18 years every fifth family was selected by systematic random sampling from the total of 1698 families registered at Urban Health Centre. They were interviewed personally and information was collected about sociodemographic characteristics, personal factors, and measurements of weight, height, waist and hip circumference of the individuals were taken to calculate Body Mass Index (BMI and Waist Hip Ratio (WHR. Results: Prevalence of overweight (BMI -25-29.99 and obesity (BMI ≥30 being 28.0% and 8.0% respectively. Prevalence of abdominal obesity was 25.8%. About two-third (66.9% of abdominal obesity rightly corresponded with the high BMI (25+. Conclusion: The prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing in urban area of Meerut, more in females than males and it is being affected by various socio-demographic correlates.

  17. Overweight and Obesity above 18 years of Age in An Urban Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit Kumar Kamboj

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Today however, as standard of living continues to rise, weight gain and obesity are posing a growing threat to health in both developed and developing countries and affecting children as well as adults. Indeed, it is now so common that it is replacing the more traditional public health concern including under nutrition and infectious diseases. Overweight and obesity is a major risk factor for high morbidity and mortality. Obesity is an independent risk factor for chronic heart disease related morbidity and mortality. Aims and Objectives: To find out the prevalence of overweight & obesity and to suggest measures for prevention of overweight and obesity in adult population. Material and Method: To cover a sample size of 1152 in Urban Health Centre area population ≥18 years every fifth family was selected by systematic random sampling from the total of 1698 families registered at Urban Health Centre. They were interviewed personally and information was collected about sociodemographic characteristics, personal factors, and measurements of weight, height, waist and hip circumference of the individuals were taken to calculate Body Mass Index (BMI and Waist Hip Ratio (WHR. Results: Prevalence of overweight (BMI -25-29.99 and obesity (BMI ≥30 being 28.0% and 8.0% respectively. Prevalence of abdominal obesity was 25.8%. About two-third (66.9% of abdominal obesity rightly corresponded with the high BMI (25+. Conclusion: The prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing in urban area of Meerut, more in females than males and it is being affected by various socio-demographic correlates.

  18. Health inequalities among rural and urban population of Eastern Poland in the context of sustainable development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantyley, Viktoriya

    2017-09-21

    The primary goals of the study were a critical analysis of the concepts associated with health from the perspective of sustainable development, and empirical analysis of health and health- related issues among the rural and urban residents of Eastern Poland in the context of the sustainable development of the region. The study was based on the following research methods: a systemic approach, selection and analysis of the literature and statistical data, developing a special questionnaire concerning socio-economic and health inequalities among the population in the studied area, field research with an interview questionnaire conducted on randomly-selected respondents (N=1,103) in randomly selected areas of the Lubelskie, Podkarpackie, Podlaskie and eastern part of Mazowieckie Provinces (with the division between provincial capital cities - county capital cities - other cities - rural areas). The results of statistical surveys in the studied area with the use of chi-square test and contingence quotients indicated a correlation between the state of health and the following independent variables: age, life quality, social position and financial situation (C-Pearson's coefficient over 0,300); a statistically significant yet weak correlation was recorded for gender, household size, place of residence and amount of free time. The conducted analysis proved the existence of a huge gap between state of health of the population in urban and rural areas. In order to eliminate unfavourable differences in the state iof health among the residents of Eastern Poland, and provide equal sustainable development in urban and rural areas of the examined areas, special preventive programmes aimed at the residents of peripheral, marginalized rural areas should be implemented. In these programmes, attention should be paid to preventive measures, early diagnosis of basic civilization and social diseases, and better accessibility to medical services for the residents.

  19. Annual survival rate estimate of satellite transmitter–marked eastern population greater sandhill cranes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fronczak, David L.; Andersen, David E.; Hanna, Everett E.; Cooper, Thomas R.

    2015-01-01

    Several surveys have documented the increasing population size and geographic distribution of Eastern Population greater sandhill cranes Grus canadensis tabida since the 1960s. Sport hunting of this population of sandhill cranes started in 2012 following the provisions of the Eastern Population Sandhill Crane Management Plan. However, there are currently no published estimates of Eastern Population sandhill crane survival rate that can be used to inform harvest management. As part of two studies of Eastern Population sandhill crane migration, we deployed solar-powered global positioning system platform transmitting terminals on Eastern Population sandhill cranes (n  =  42) at key concentration areas from 2009 to 2012. We estimated an annual survival rate for Eastern Population sandhill cranes from data resulting from monitoring these cranes by using the known-fates model in the MARK program. Estimated annual survival rate for adult Eastern Population sandhill cranes was 0.950 (95% confidence interval  =  0.885–0.979) during December 2009–August 2014. All fatalities (n  =  5) occurred after spring migration in late spring and early summer. We were unable to determine cause of death for crane fatalities in our study. Our survival rate estimate will be useful when combined with other population parameters such as the population index derived from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service fall survey, harvest, and recruitment rates to assess the effects of harvest on population size and trend and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies.

  20. B-graph sampling to estimate the size of a hidden population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spreen, M.; Bogaerts, S.

    2015-01-01

    Link-tracing designs are often used to estimate the size of hidden populations by utilizing the relational links between their members. A major problem in studies of hidden populations is the lack of a convenient sampling frame. The most frequently applied design in studies of hidden populations is

  1. Georeferenced Population Datasets of Mexico (GEO-MEX): Urban Place GIS Coverage of Mexico

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Urban Place GIS Coverage of Mexico is a vector based point Geographic Information System (GIS) coverage of 696 urban places in Mexico. Each Urban Place is...

  2. Estimation of illicit drug use in the main cities of Colombia by means of urban wastewater analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bijlsma, Lubertus; Botero-Coy, Ana M. [Research Institute for Pesticides and Water (IUPA), University Jaume I, Castellón (Spain); Rincón, Rolando J. [Chemistry Department, Faculty of Sciences, University Antonio Nariño (Colombia); Peñuela, Gustavo A. [Grupo GDCON, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia, 70 # 52-21, Medellin (Colombia); Hernández, Félix, E-mail: felix.hernandez@uji.es [Research Institute for Pesticides and Water (IUPA), University Jaume I, Castellón (Spain)

    2016-09-15

    Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) relies on the principle that traces of compounds, which a population is exposed to or consume, are excreted unchanged or as metabolites in urine and/or feces, and ultimately end up in the sewer network. Measuring target metabolic residues i.e. biomarkers in raw urban wastewater allows identifying the exposure or use of substances of interest in a community. Up to date, the most popular application of WBE is the estimation of illicit drug use and studies have been made mainly across Europe, which has allowed estimating and comparing drug use in many European cities. However, until now a comprehensive study applying WBE on the most frequently consumed illicit drugs has not been performed in South American countries. In this work, we applied this approach to samples from Colombia, selecting two of the most populated cities: Bogotá and Medellin. Several biomarkers were selected to estimate drug use of cocaine, cannabis, amphetamine, methamphetamine, MDMA (ecstasy), heroin and ketamine. Composite samples (24-h) were collected at the corresponding municipal wastewater treatment plants. Sample treatment was performed at location by applying solid-phase extraction (SPE). Before SPE, the samples were spiked with appropriate isotope labeled internal standards. In parallel, samples (spiked with the analytes under study at two concentration levels) were also processed for quality control. Analysis of influent wastewater was made by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, with triple quadrupole analyzer. Data shown in this paper reveal a high use of cocaine by the population of the selected Colombian cities, particularly from Medellin, while the use of other illicit drugs were low. The relevance of using quality control samples, particularly in collaborative studies, as those presented in this work, where research groups from different countries participate and where the samples had to be shipped overseas, is highlighted in this

  3. Estimation of illicit drug use in the main cities of Colombia by means of urban wastewater analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bijlsma, Lubertus; Botero-Coy, Ana M.; Rincón, Rolando J.; Peñuela, Gustavo A.; Hernández, Félix

    2016-01-01

    Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) relies on the principle that traces of compounds, which a population is exposed to or consume, are excreted unchanged or as metabolites in urine and/or feces, and ultimately end up in the sewer network. Measuring target metabolic residues i.e. biomarkers in raw urban wastewater allows identifying the exposure or use of substances of interest in a community. Up to date, the most popular application of WBE is the estimation of illicit drug use and studies have been made mainly across Europe, which has allowed estimating and comparing drug use in many European cities. However, until now a comprehensive study applying WBE on the most frequently consumed illicit drugs has not been performed in South American countries. In this work, we applied this approach to samples from Colombia, selecting two of the most populated cities: Bogotá and Medellin. Several biomarkers were selected to estimate drug use of cocaine, cannabis, amphetamine, methamphetamine, MDMA (ecstasy), heroin and ketamine. Composite samples (24-h) were collected at the corresponding municipal wastewater treatment plants. Sample treatment was performed at location by applying solid-phase extraction (SPE). Before SPE, the samples were spiked with appropriate isotope labeled internal standards. In parallel, samples (spiked with the analytes under study at two concentration levels) were also processed for quality control. Analysis of influent wastewater was made by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, with triple quadrupole analyzer. Data shown in this paper reveal a high use of cocaine by the population of the selected Colombian cities, particularly from Medellin, while the use of other illicit drugs were low. The relevance of using quality control samples, particularly in collaborative studies, as those presented in this work, where research groups from different countries participate and where the samples had to be shipped overseas, is highlighted in this

  4. Long-term monitoring of endangered Laysan ducks: Index validation and population estimates 1998–2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Courtot, Karen; Brinck, Kevin W.; Rehkemper, Cynthia; Hatfield, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring endangered wildlife is essential to assessing management or recovery objectives and learning about population status. We tested assumptions of a population index for endangered Laysan duck (or teal; Anas laysanensis) monitored using mark–resight methods on Laysan Island, Hawai’i. We marked 723 Laysan ducks between 1998 and 2009 and identified seasonal surveys through 2012 that met accuracy and precision criteria for estimating population abundance. Our results provide a 15-y time series of seasonal population estimates at Laysan Island. We found differences in detection among seasons and how observed counts related to population estimates. The highest counts and the strongest relationship between count and population estimates occurred in autumn (September–November). The best autumn surveys yielded population abundance estimates that ranged from 674 (95% CI = 619–730) in 2003 to 339 (95% CI = 265–413) in 2012. A population decline of 42% was observed between 2010 and 2012 after consecutive storms and Japan’s To¯hoku earthquake-generated tsunami in 2011. Our results show positive correlations between the seasonal maximum counts and population estimates from the same date, and support the use of standardized bimonthly counts of unmarked birds as a valid index to monitor trends among years within a season at Laysan Island.

  5. Epidemiology of uveitis in a Western urban multiethnic population. The challenge of globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorenç, Victor; Mesquida, Marina; Sainz de la Maza, Maite; Keller, Johannes; Molins, Blanca; Espinosa, Gerard; Hernandez, María V; Gonzalez-Martín, Julian; Adán, Alfredo

    2015-09-01

    To report the anatomical pattern and etiological spectrum of uveitis in an urban multi-ethnic population from Barcelona, Spain. General and specific epidemiological data for the most prevalent aetiologies are also calculated. A cross-sectional study of consecutive uveitis cases was performed between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2012. Exogenous endophthalmitis, surgery-related, post-traumatic and toxic uveitis along with masquerade syndromes were excluded. Anatomical (Standard Uveitis Nomenclature criteria) and aetiological patterns (by tailored tests), age, sex, geographical origin and laterality were analysed. Mean incidence and prevalence were calculated for a mid-period reference population. From 1022 patients included, 52% were anterior uveitis (AU), 23% posterior, 15% panuveitis and 9% intermediate uveitis. Aetiologically, 26% were unclassifiable, 29% infectious, 25% associated with systemic immune diseases, and 20% corresponded to ocular-specific syndromes. Among classified causes, herpesvirus (12%), toxoplasma (7%), Behçet's disease (BD) (5%), HLA-B27-isolated AU (5%), ankylosing spondylitis (5%), tuberculosis-related uveitis (TRU) (5%), birdshot chorioretinopathy (3%) and sarcoidosis (3%) were the most frequent. Non-Spanish origin was recorded in 22%, with 47% of Vogt-Koyanagi-Harada and 36% of toxoplasma cases coming from South America, 10% of BD and 11% of TRU from Africa and 24% of TRU cases from Asia. A mean annual incidence of 51.91 cases/100,000 inhabitants was found for the referral population. In our referral area, 74% of the uveitis cases can be correctly classified. A large myriad of uveitis aetiologies with a strong geographical origin burden are found in Western urban multi-ethnic populations. © 2015 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. The effect of exposure to biomass smoke on respiratory symptoms in adult rural and urban Nepalese populations

    OpenAIRE

    Kurmi, Om P; Semple, Sean; Devereux, Graham S; Gaihre, Santosh; Lam, Kin Bong Hubert; Sadhra, Steven; Steiner, Markus FC; Simkhada, Padam; Smith, William CS; Ayres, Jon G

    2014-01-01

    Background Half of the world’s population is exposed to household air pollution from biomass burning. This study aimed to assess the relationship between respiratory symptoms and biomass smoke exposure in rural and urban Nepal. Methods A cross-sectional study of adults (16+ years) in a rural population (n = 846) exposed to biomass smoke and a non-exposed urban population (n = 802) in Nepal. A validated questionnaire was used along with measures of indoor air quality (PM2.5 and CO) and outdoor...

  7. Estimation of mortality rates in stage-structured population

    CERN Document Server

    Wood, Simon N

    1991-01-01

    The stated aims of the Lecture Notes in Biomathematics allow for work that is "unfinished or tentative". This volume is offered in that spirit. The problem addressed is one of the classics of statistical ecology, the estimation of mortality rates from stage-frequency data, but in tackling it we found ourselves making use of ideas and techniques very different from those we expected to use, and in which we had no previous experience. Specifically we drifted towards consideration of some rather specific curve and surface fitting and smoothing techniques. We think we have made some progress (otherwise why publish?), but are acutely aware of the conceptual and statistical clumsiness of parts of the work. Readers with sufficient expertise to be offended should regard the monograph as a challenge to do better. The central theme in this book is a somewhat complex algorithm for mortality estimation (detailed at the end of Chapter 4). Because of its complexity, the job of implementing the method is intimidating. Any r...

  8. Does urbanization affect energy intensities across provinces in China?Long-run elasticities estimation using dynamic panels with heterogeneous slopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Ben

    2015-01-01

    Although there has been extensive debate in the literature that addresses the impact of urbanization on total energy use, the relative magnitude of each impact channel has not been empirically examined and urbanization's effects on energy transition dynamics in China remains unknown. Using panel datasets at the provincial level from 1986 to 2011, this paper employs dynamic models to investigate both the long-run and short-run elasticities of urbanization on energy intensities and the most significant impact channel is identified. Coal intensity and electricity intensity are also modeled to reveal energy transition dynamics driven by urbanization. A set of newly developed regression techniques, namely well-performed common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) and augmented mean group (AMG) estimators, are used to treat residual cross-sectional dependence, nonstationary residuals, and unlikely-to-hold homogeneous slope assumptions. The results obtained verify that the net effects of urbanization on overall energy intensity and electricity intensity are statistically positive, with long-run elasticities of 0.14% to 0.37% and 0.23% to 0.29%, respectively, whereas China's urbanization does not significantly increase coal intensity. The fact that short-run elasticities account for a majority of corresponding long-run values indicates that the short-run effect, that is, indirect energy use induced by urban infrastructures is the most significant impact channel of urbanization on energy use in China. An energy transition from high-pollution coal to clean electricity is also present in China, although the fundamental transition to renewable energy is still in its infancy. From a regional perspective, urbanization exerts asymmetric impacts on provincial energy use so that energy policies associated with urbanization should be province-specific. The findings also illustrate that for a panel dataset on regional dimension within large and fast-growing economies such

  9. Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet L. Rachlow

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1 if a current population size was given, (2 if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3 if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data.

  10. Quantification of deaths attributed to air pollution in Sweden using estimated population exposure to nitrogen dioxide as indicator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forsberg, Bertil; Sjoeberg, Karin

    2005-08-01

    In the previous phase of this project a model was provided for quantifying the general population exposure to air pollution. From that work interpolated yearly mean concentrations of nitrogen dioxide were provided for the Swedish population. To be applied in the health impact assessment we selected an ecological study from Auckland, New Zealand, which reported a 13 % increase in non-accidental mortality (all ages) for 10 μg/m 3 increase in NO 2 . Based on official national data we assumed a baseline rate of 1,010 deaths per 100,000 persons and year at the population weighted mean level of approximately 10 μg NO 2 /m 3 . We then calculated the death rate and the yearly number of deaths expected at the population weighted mean exposure in each of four exposure classes above 10 μg/m 3 . Using the modelled levels of NO 2 as an indicator of air pollution levels from transportation and combustion, and calculating effects on mortality only above the yearly mean 10 μg/m 3 , we estimated excess exposure to result in 2,837 (95% CI 2400-3273) deaths per year. A recent paper presenting similar calculations estimated the local contribution to urban levels of PM in Sweden to result in around 1,800 deaths per year, but the authors questioned the use of risk coefficients for regional PM to assess the effect of local traffic pollutants. The new results obtained, using locally produced nitrogen dioxide as the basis for the risk assessment, resulted in an impact estimate 55 % higher than the published estimate based on PM

  11. The annual terrestrial gamma radiation dose to the population of the urban Christchurch area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, R.H.

    1983-01-01

    Natural terrestrial gamma radiation dose rates were measured with a high pressure ionization chamber at 70 indoor (195 site measurements) and 58 outdoor locations in the metropolitan Christchurch area. Based on these site measurements, the average gonad dose rate to the population from natural terrestrial gamma radiation was estimated to be 273+-56 microgray per annum. (auth)

  12. The Influence of Age and Gender on Skin-Associated Microbial Communities in Urban and Rural Human Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi Ying

    Full Text Available Differences in the bacterial community structure associated with 7 skin sites in 71 healthy people over five days showed significant correlations with age, gender, physical skin parameters, and whether participants lived in urban or rural locations in the same city. While body site explained the majority of the variance in bacterial community structure, the composition of the skin-associated bacterial communities were predominantly influenced by whether the participants were living in an urban or rural environment, with a significantly greater relative abundance of Trabulsiella in urban populations. Adults maintained greater overall microbial diversity than adolescents or the elderly, while the intragroup variation among the elderly and rural populations was significantly greater. Skin-associated bacterial community structure and composition could predict whether a sample came from an urban or a rural resident ~5x greater than random.

  13. Panel estimation for urbanization, energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A regional analysis in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Chuanguo; Lin Yan

    2012-01-01

    As urbanization accelerates, urban areas play a leading role in energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in China. The existing research is extensively concerned with the relationships between urbanization, energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in recent years, but little attention has been paid to the regional differences. This paper is an analysis of the impact of urbanization on energy consumption and CO 2 emissions at the national and regional levels using the STIRPAT model and provincial panel data from 1995 to 2010 in China. The results showed that urbanization increases energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in China. The effects of urbanization on energy consumption vary across regions and decline continuously from the western region to the central and eastern regions. The impact of urbanization on CO 2 emissions in the central region is greater than that in the eastern region. The impact of urbanization on energy consumption is greater than the impact on CO 2 emissions in the eastern region. And some evidences support the argument of compact city theory. These results not only contribute to advancing the existing literature, but also merit particular attention from policy makers and urban planners in China. - Highlights: ► We analyze the impact of urbanization on energy use and CO 2 emissions in China. ► Urbanization increases energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in China. ► The effects of urbanization on energy use and CO 2 emissions vary across regions.

  14. A method for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, Matthew; O'Keefe, Joy M; Walters, Brianne

    2015-01-01

    While numerous methods exist for estimating abundance when detection is imperfect, these methods may not be appropriate due to logistical difficulties or unrealistic assumptions. In particular, if highly mobile taxa are frequently absent from survey locations, methods that estimate a probability of detection conditional on presence will generate biased abundance estimates. Here, we propose a new estimator for estimating abundance of mobile populations using telemetry and counts of unmarked animals. The estimator assumes that the target population conforms to a fission-fusion grouping pattern, in which the population is divided into groups that frequently change in size and composition. If assumptions are met, it is not necessary to locate all groups in the population to estimate abundance. We derive an estimator, perform a simulation study, conduct a power analysis, and apply the method to field data. The simulation study confirmed that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased with low bias, narrow confidence intervals, and good coverage, given a modest survey effort. The power analysis provided initial guidance on survey effort. When applied to small data sets obtained by radio-tracking Indiana bats, abundance estimates were reasonable, although imprecise. The proposed method has the potential to improve abundance estimates for mobile species that have a fission-fusion social structure, such as Indiana bats, because it does not condition detection on presence at survey locations and because it avoids certain restrictive assumptions.

  15. City Magistrate of Tsaritsyn as the Estates Court for Urban Population 1784-1866

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena V. Bulyulina

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available At the end of the 18th century in Russia caste system of the judiciary was legalized. For urban and suburban trade and craft population of the Russian Empire estates courts were magistrates. Despite the fact that the activities of magistrates are studied by native historians and legal scholars, regional aspects of the topic are not adequately reflected. This article examines the activities of the Tsaritsyn city magistrate court as an estates court for a merchant and petty-bourgeois population of the city of Tsaritsyn in 1784-1866. In 1775 Ekaterina II carried out a major reform of local government and the court, significantly expanding the functions of local government institutions, and, in fact, restoring estates of municipal government. From that moment in cities the magistrates managed the city, including city magistrates who represented the court of first instance in criminal and civil cases for the urban population – merchants, craftsmen, townspeople. Appeal to the city magistrate was of the Saratov provincial magistrate. Different aspects of his functional features and relations with another official instances are presented. The limits of the jurisdiction of the Tsaritsyn city magistrate was limited to the territory of Tsaritsyn. The objects of the jurisdiction could be only the regular citizens, i.e. assigned to the city, and not the entire population. Implementation of the rule of law, particularly the application of penalties in the material presented in the aspect of not only the all-Russian legal requirements, but also regarding regional social and legal assessments. Tsaritsyn city magistrate heard cases of theft, vandalism, rape, false receipts, and bills of exchange, unauthorized occupation of urban land, abandoned children, the accountability for deviations from the canons of Orthodoxy, committing a schismatic rites, violation of rules of transportation and logging, concealment of recruits, about the insult of the authorities

  16. 75 FR 44 - Temporary Suspension of the Population Estimates and Income Estimates Challenge Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-04

    ... final rule may be submitted to Dr. Enrique Lamas, Chief of the Population Division, through any of the...-mailed to: Enrique.Lamas@census.gov . Mail: Correspondence may be mailed to: Dr. Enrique Lamas, Chief...

  17. Urban micro-scale flood risk estimation with parsimonious hydraulic modelling and census data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Arrighi

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The adoption of 2007/60/EC Directive requires European countries to implement flood hazard and flood risk maps by the end of 2013. Flood risk is the product of flood hazard, vulnerability and exposure, all three to be estimated with comparable level of accuracy. The route to flood risk assessment is consequently much more than hydraulic modelling of inundation, that is hazard mapping. While hazard maps have already been implemented in many countries, quantitative damage and risk maps are still at a preliminary level. A parsimonious quasi-2-D hydraulic model is here adopted, having many advantages in terms of easy set-up. It is here evaluated as being accurate in flood depth estimation in urban areas with a high-resolution and up-to-date Digital Surface Model (DSM. The accuracy, estimated by comparison with marble-plate records of a historic flood in the city of Florence, is characterized in the downtown's most flooded area by a bias of a very few centimetres and a determination coefficient of 0.73. The average risk is found to be about 14 € m−2 yr−1, corresponding to about 8.3% of residents' income. The spatial distribution of estimated risk highlights a complex interaction between the flood pattern and the building characteristics. As a final example application, the estimated risk values have been used to compare different retrofitting measures. Proceeding through the risk estimation steps, a new micro-scale potential damage assessment method is proposed. This is based on the georeferenced census system as the optimal compromise between spatial detail and open availability of socio-economic data. The results of flood risk assessment at the census section scale resolve most of the risk spatial variability, and they can be easily aggregated to whatever upper scale is needed given that they are geographically defined as contiguous polygons. Damage is calculated through stage–damage curves, starting from census data on building type and

  18. Frailty syndrome in an independent urban population in Brazil (FIBRA study: a cross-sectional populational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larissa Barradas Calado

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Frailty is a multifactorial syndrome. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and characteristics of frailty syndrome in an elderly urban population. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional study carried out at the homes of a randomized sample representing the independent elderly individuals of Ribeirão Preto, Brazil. METHODS: Sociodemographic characteristics, clinical data and criteria of the frailty phenotype were obtained at the subjects' homes; 385 individuals were evaluated. Frailty was defined based on detection of weight loss, exhaustion, weakness, slowness and low physical activity level. Individuals with three or more of these characteristics were classified as frail and those with one or two as pre-frail. Specific cutoff points for weakness, slowness and low physical activity level were calculated. RESULTS: The participants' mean age was 73.9 ± 6.5 years, and 64.7% were women. 12.5% had lost weight over the last year; 20.5% showed exhaustion, 17.1% slowness, 24.4% low physical activity level and 20.5% weakness. 9.1% were considered frail and 49.6% pre-frail. Frail subjects were older, attended more medical visits, had a higher chance of hospitalization within the last 12 months and had more cerebrovascular events, diabetes, neoplasms, osteoporosis and urinary and fecal incontinence. CONCLUSION: In this independent elderly population, there were numerous frail and pre-frail individuals. Frailty syndrome was associated with high morbidity. Cutoff points for weakness, slowness and low physical activity level should be adjusted for the population under study. It is essential to identify frail and pre-frail older individuals for appropriate interventions.

  19. Comparison of Three Plot Selection Methods for Estimating Change in Temporally Variable, Spatially Clustered Populations.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, William L. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (US). Environment, Fish and Wildlife

    2001-07-01

    Monitoring population numbers is important for assessing trends and meeting various legislative mandates. However, sampling across time introduces a temporal aspect to survey design in addition to the spatial one. For instance, a sample that is initially representative may lose this attribute if there is a shift in numbers and/or spatial distribution in the underlying population that is not reflected in later sampled plots. Plot selection methods that account for this temporal variability will produce the best trend estimates. Consequently, I used simulation to compare bias and relative precision of estimates of population change among stratified and unstratified sampling designs based on permanent, temporary, and partial replacement plots under varying levels of spatial clustering, density, and temporal shifting of populations. Permanent plots produced more precise estimates of change than temporary plots across all factors. Further, permanent plots performed better than partial replacement plots except for high density (5 and 10 individuals per plot) and 25% - 50% shifts in the population. Stratified designs always produced less precise estimates of population change for all three plot selection methods, and often produced biased change estimates and greatly inflated variance estimates under sampling with partial replacement. Hence, stratification that remains fixed across time should be avoided when monitoring populations that are likely to exhibit large changes in numbers and/or spatial distribution during the study period. Key words: bias; change estimation; monitoring; permanent plots; relative precision; sampling with partial replacement; temporary plots.

  20. Elevated incidence rates of diabetes in Peru: report from PERUDIAB, a national urban population-based longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seclen, Segundo Nicolas; Rosas, Moises Ernesto; Arias, Arturo Jaime; Medina, Cecilia Alexandra

    2017-01-01

    A recent report from a non-nationally representative, geographically diverse sample in four separate communities in Peru suggests an unusually high diabetes incidence. We aimed to estimate the national diabetes incidence rate using PERUDIAB, a probabilistic, national urban population-based longitudinal study. 662 subjects without diabetes, selected by multistage, cluster, random sampling of households, representing the 24 administrative and the 3 (coast, highlands and jungle) natural regions across the country, from both sexes, aged 25+ years at baseline, enrolled in 2010-2012, were followed for 3.8 years. New diabetes cases were defined as fasting blood glucose ≥126 mg/dL or on medical diabetes treatment. There were 49 cases of diabetes in 2408 person-years follow-up. The weighted cumulative incidence of diabetes was 7.2% while the weighted incidence rate was estimated at 19.5 (95% CI 13.9 to 28.3) new cases per 1000 person-years. Older age, obesity and technical or higher education were statistically associated with the incidence of diabetes. Our results confirm that the incidence of diabetes in Peru is among the highest reported globally. The fast economic growth in the last 20 years, high overweight and obesity rates may have triggered this phenomenon.

  1. Local introduction and heterogeneous spatial spread of dengue-suppressing Wolbachia through an urban population of Aedes aegypti.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom L Schmidt

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Dengue-suppressing Wolbachia strains are promising tools for arbovirus control, particularly as they have the potential to self-spread following local introductions. To test this, we followed the frequency of the transinfected Wolbachia strain wMel through Ae. aegypti in Cairns, Australia, following releases at 3 nonisolated locations within the city in early 2013. Spatial spread was analysed graphically using interpolation and by fitting a statistical model describing the position and width of the wave. For the larger 2 of the 3 releases (covering 0.97 km2 and 0.52 km2, we observed slow but steady spatial spread, at about 100-200 m per year, roughly consistent with theoretical predictions. In contrast, the smallest release (0.11 km2 produced erratic temporal and spatial dynamics, with little evidence of spread after 2 years. This is consistent with the prediction concerning fitness-decreasing Wolbachia transinfections that a minimum release area is needed to achieve stable local establishment and spread in continuous habitats. Our graphical and likelihood analyses produced broadly consistent estimates of wave speed and wave width. Spread at all sites was spatially heterogeneous, suggesting that environmental heterogeneity will affect large-scale Wolbachia transformations of urban mosquito populations. The persistence and spread of Wolbachia in release areas meeting minimum area requirements indicates the promise of successful large-scale population transformation.

  2. Establishing an air pollution monitoring network for intra-urban population exposure assessment : a location-allocation approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanaroglou, P.S. [McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada). School of Geography and Geology; Jerrett, M.; Beckerman, B.; Arain, M.A. [McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada). School of Geography and Geology]|[McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada). McMaster Inst. of Environment and Health; Morrison, J. [Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON (Canada). School of Computer Science; Gilbert, N.L. [Health Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Air Health Effects Div; Brook, J.R. [Meteorological Service of Canada, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2004-10-01

    A study was conducted to assess the relation between traffic-generated air pollution and health reactions ranging from childhood asthma to mortality from lung cancer. In particular, it developed a formal method of optimally locating a dense network of air pollution monitoring stations in order to derive an exposure assessment model based on the data obtained from the monitoring stations and related land use, population and biophysical information. The method for determining the locations of 100 nitrogen dioxide monitors in Toronto, Ontario focused on land use, transportation infrastructure and the distribution of at-risk populations. The exposure assessment produced reasonable estimates at the intra-urban scale. This method for locating air pollution monitors effectively maximizes sampling coverage in relation to important socio-demographic characteristics and likely pollution variability. The location-allocation approach integrates many variables into the demand surface to reconfigure a monitoring network and is especially useful for measuring traffic pollutants with fine-scale spatial variability. The method also shows great promise for improving the assessment of exposure to ambient air pollution in epidemiologic studies. 19 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs.

  3. Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: An example in asynchronously breeding birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, K.A.; Frederick, P.C.; Nichols, J.D.

    2011-01-01

    Many populations of animals are fluid in both space and time, making estimation of numbers difficult. Much attention has been devoted to estimation of bias in detection of animals that are present at the time of survey. However, an equally important problem is estimation of population size when all animals are not present on all survey occasions. Here, we showcase use of the superpopulation approach to capture-recapture modeling for estimating populations where group membership is asynchronous, and where considerable overlap in group membership among sampling occasions may occur. We estimate total population size of long-legged wading bird (Great Egret and White Ibis) breeding colonies from aerial observations of individually identifiable nests at various times in the nesting season. Initiation and termination of nests were analogous to entry and departure from a population. Estimates using the superpopulation approach were 47-382% larger than peak aerial counts of the same colonies. Our results indicate that the use of the superpopulation approach to model nesting asynchrony provides a considerably less biased and more efficient estimate of nesting activity than traditional methods. We suggest that this approach may also be used to derive population estimates in a variety of situations where group membership is fluid. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  4. Modeling and Density Estimation of an Urban Freeway Network Based on Dynamic Graph Hybrid Automata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yangzhou; Guo, Yuqi; Wang, Ying

    2017-03-29

    In this paper, in order to describe complex network systems, we firstly propose a general modeling framework by combining a dynamic graph with hybrid automata and thus name it Dynamic Graph Hybrid Automata (DGHA). Then we apply this framework to model traffic flow over an urban freeway network by embedding the Cell Transmission Model (CTM) into the DGHA. With a modeling procedure, we adopt a dual digraph of road network structure to describe the road topology, use linear hybrid automata to describe multi-modes of dynamic densities in road segments and transform the nonlinear expressions of the transmitted traffic flow between two road segments into piecewise linear functions in terms of multi-mode switchings. This modeling procedure is modularized and rule-based, and thus is easily-extensible with the help of a combination algorithm for the dynamics of traffic flow. It can describe the dynamics of traffic flow over an urban freeway network with arbitrary topology structures and sizes. Next we analyze mode types and number in the model of the whole freeway network, and deduce a Piecewise Affine Linear System (PWALS) model. Furthermore, based on the PWALS model, a multi-mode switched state observer is designed to estimate the traffic densities of the freeway network, where a set of observer gain matrices are computed by using the Lyapunov function approach. As an example, we utilize the PWALS model and the corresponding switched state observer to traffic flow over Beijing third ring road. In order to clearly interpret the principle of the proposed method and avoid computational complexity, we adopt a simplified version of Beijing third ring road. Practical application for a large-scale road network will be implemented by decentralized modeling approach and distributed observer designing in the future research.

  5. Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

    2014-01-01

    Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, and flood-plain management. Such estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. In order to increase the number of streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) available for analysis, expand the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across State boundaries, and build on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural U.S Geological Survey streamgages in the Southeast United States, a multistate approach was used to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The at-site flood-frequency analysis of annual peak-flow data for urban and small, rural streams (through September 30, 2011) included 116 urban streamgages and 32 small, rural streamgages, defined in this report as basins draining less than 1 square mile. The regional regression analysis included annual peak-flow data from an additional 338 rural streamgages previously included in U.S. Geological Survey flood-frequency reports and 2 additional rural streamgages in North Carolina that were not included in the previous Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation for a total of 488 streamgages included in the urban and small, rural regression analysis. The at-site flood-frequency analyses for the urban and small, rural streamgages included the expected moments algorithm, which is a modification of the Bulletin 17B log-Pearson type III method for fitting the statistical distribution to the logarithms of the annual peak flows. Where applicable, the flood-frequency analysis also included low-outlier and historic information. Additionally, the application of a generalized Grubbs-Becks test allowed for the

  6. Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutagoma, Mwumvaneza; Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

    2015-10-01

    HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture-recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture-recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998-3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916-2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture-recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture-recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. © The Author(s) 2015.

  7. Estimating micro area behavioural risk factor prevalence from large population-based surveys: a full Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Seliske

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An important public health goal is to decrease the prevalence of key behavioural risk factors, such as tobacco use and obesity. Survey information is often available at the regional level, but heterogeneity within large geographic regions cannot be assessed. Advanced spatial analysis techniques are demonstrated to produce sensible micro area estimates of behavioural risk factors that enable identification of areas with high prevalence. Methods A spatial Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate the micro area prevalence of current smoking and excess bodyweight for the Erie-St. Clair region in southwestern Ontario. Estimates were mapped for male and female respondents of five cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS. The micro areas were 2006 Census Dissemination Areas, with an average population of 400–700 people. Two individual-level models were specified: one controlled for survey cycle and age group (model 1, and one controlled for survey cycle, age group and micro area median household income (model 2. Post-stratification was used to derive micro area behavioural risk factor estimates weighted to the population structure. SaTScan analyses were conducted on the granular, postal-code level CCHS data to corroborate findings of elevated prevalence. Results Current smoking was elevated in two urban areas for both sexes (Sarnia and Windsor, and an additional small community (Chatham for males only. Areas of excess bodyweight were prevalent in an urban core (Windsor among males, but not females. Precision of the posterior post-stratified current smoking estimates was improved in model 2, as indicated by narrower credible intervals and a lower coefficient of variation. For excess bodyweight, both models had similar precision. Aggregation of the micro area estimates to CCHS design-based estimates validated the findings. Conclusions This is among the first studies to apply a full Bayesian model to complex

  8. The stigma of mental illness in Southern Ghana: attitudes of the urban population and patients' views.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barke, Antonia; Nyarko, Seth; Klecha, Dorothee

    2011-11-01

    Stigma is a frequent accompaniment of mental illness leading to a number of detrimental consequences. Most research into the stigma connected to mental illness was conducted in the developed world. So far, few data exist on countries in sub-Saharan Africa and no data have been published on population attitudes towards mental illness in Ghana. Even less is known about the stigma actually perceived by the mentally ill persons themselves. A convenience sample of 403 participants (210 men, mean age 32.4±12.3 years) from urban regions in Accra, Cape Coast and Pantang filled in the Community Attitudes towards the Mentally Ill (CAMI) questionnaire. In addition, 105 patients (75 men, mean age 35.9±11.0 years) of Ghana's three psychiatric hospitals (Accra Psychiatry Hospital, Ankaful Hospital, Pantang Hospital) answered the Perceived Stigma and Discrimination Scale. High levels of stigma prevailed in the population as shown by high proportions of assent to items expressing authoritarian and socially restrictive views, coexisting with agreement with more benevolent attitudes. A higher level of education was associated with more positive attitudes on all subscales (Authoritarianism, Social Restrictiveness, Benevolence and Acceptance of Community Based Mental Health Services). The patients reported a high degree of experienced stigma with secrecy concerning the illness as a widespread coping strategy. Perceived stigma was not associated with sex or age. The extent of stigmatising attitudes within the urban population of Southern Ghana is in line with the scant research in other countries in sub-Saharan Africa and mirrored by the experienced stigma reported by the patients. These results have to be seen in the context of the extreme scarcity of resources within the Ghanaian psychiatric system. Anti-stigma efforts should include interventions for mentally ill persons themselves and not exclusively focus on public attitudes.

  9. Seroprevalence of hepatitis C and associated risk factors among an urban population in Haiti

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hepburn Matthew J

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The seroprevalence of hepatitis C varies substantially between countries and geographic regions. A better understanding of the seroprevalence of this disease, and the risk factors associated with seropositive status, supply data for the development of screening programs and provide insight into the transmission of the disease. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the seroprevalence of hepatitis C and associated risk factors in an urban population in Haiti. Methods A prospective survey for hepatitis C antibodies was conducted among an urban outpatient population in Cap-Haïtien, Haiti, with a sample size of 500 subjects. An anonymous 12 question survey, with inquiries related to demographic characteristics and risk factors for HCV acquisition, was concomitantly administered with testing. These demographic and behavioral risk factors were correlated with HCV antibody status using univariate and multivariate tests. Results The prevalence of positive HCV antibody was 22/500 (4.4%. Subjects that were anti-HCV positive had an average of 7 ± 8.6 lifetime sexual partners, compared to average of 2.5 ± 3.5 lifetime sexual partners among HCV-negative subjects (p = 0.02. In a multiple logistic regression model, intravenous drug use (OR 3.7, 1.52–9.03 95% CI and number of sexual partners (OR 1.1, 1.04–1.20 95% CI were independently associated with a positive HCV antibody result. Conclusions A substantial number of subjects with HCV antibodies were detected in this population in Haiti. Further investigation into the correlation between the number of sexual partners and testing positive for hepatitis C antibodies is indicated.

  10. Prevalence of glaucoma in an urban West African population: the Tema Eye Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budenz, Donald L; Barton, Keith; Whiteside-de Vos, Julia; Schiffman, Joyce; Bandi, Jagadeesh; Nolan, Winifred; Herndon, Leon; Kim, Hanna; Hay-Smith, Graham; Tielsch, James M

    2013-05-01

    Multiple studies have found an increased prevalence, younger age at onset, and more severe course of glaucoma in people of African descent, but these findings are based on studies conducted outside Africa. To determine the prevalence of glaucoma in an urban West African population of adults. A population-based, cross-sectional study of adults 40 years and older conducted from September 1, 2006, through December 31, 2008, from 5 communities in Tema, Ghana. Participants from randomly selected clusters underwent a screening examination that consisted of visual acuity, frequency doubling perimetry, applanation tonometry, and optic disc photography. Participants who failed any of these tests were referred for complete examination, including gonioscopy, standard automated perimetry, and stereoscopic optic disc photography. A total of 6806 eligible participants were identified, and 5603 (82.3%) were enrolled in the study. The field examination referred 1869 participants (33.3%) to the clinic examination, and 1538 (82.2%) came for complete examination. A total of 362 participants were identified as having glaucoma of any type and category. Primary open-angle glaucoma was the underlying diagnosis in 342 participants (94.5%). The prevalence of primary open-angle glaucoma was 6.8% overall, increasing from 3.7% among those 40 to 49 years old to 14.6% among those 80 years and older, and was higher in men than in women in all age groups, with an overall male-female prevalence ratio of 1.5. Of the participants with glaucoma, 9 (2.5%) were blind using World Health Organization criteria, and only 12 (3.3%) were aware that they had glaucoma. The prevalence of glaucoma is higher in this urban West African population than in previous studies of people of East or South African and of non-African descent. Strategies to identify affected persons and effectively manage the burden of glaucoma are needed in West Africa.

  11. Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome in an Adult Urban Population of the West of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Sharifi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. We determine the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in an urban population of Zanjan, a province located to the west of Tehran. Methods. Randomly selected adults >20 years were studied using stratified sampling. Target study sample was 2941 (1396 males and 1545 females. Metabolic syndrome was diagnosed using Adult Treatment Panel-III (ATP-III guidelines when any three of the following were present: central obesity, raised triglycerides ≥150 mg/dl, low high-density lipoprotein (HDL cholesterol, blood pressure ≥130/≥85 mm Hg, and diabetes or fasting plasma glucose (FPG ≥100 mg/dl. Results. Metabolic syndrome was present in 697 (23.7% subjects (CI 95%:22%–25%, P = .001, prevalence was 23.1% in men and 24.4% in women (P : .4. The prevalence increased from 7.5% in the population younger than 30 y to 45.6% in ages more than 50 years. Low HDL was the most common metabolic abnormality in both sexes. Most of those with metabolic syndrome had three components of the syndrome (75.6%, 170 subjects (24.4% had four and none had five components simultaneously. The prevalence of obesity (BMI≥30 kg/m2, hypercholesterolemia (≥200 mg/dl and high LDL cholesterol (≥130 mg/dl was greater in the metabolic syndrome group than normal subjects (P = .00. Conclusions. There is a high prevalence of metabolic syndrome in this urban population of the northern west of Iran. Focus of cardiovascular prevention should be undertaken in this area.

  12. Dyslipidemia and its risk factors among urban middle-aged Iranians: A population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimi, Hossein; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Hashemi, Hassan; Fotouhi, Akbar

    2016-01-01

    Dyslipidemia is a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease and is a leading cause of mortality in developed and developing countries. This study was aimed to determine the prevalence of dyslipidemia and its risk factors in an urban group of Iranian adult population. In this study, based on the criteria set by the National Cholesterol Education Program, the prevalence of dyslipidemia was evaluated in a population of 4737 people aged 45-69 years who participated in the second phase of an ophthalmology cohort study in Shahroud. Dyslipidemia prevalence was determined by age, sex, and risk factors of the disease; the findings were tested by using simple and multiple logistic regression. The prevalence of dyslipidemia was 66.5% (CI 95%: 64.4-68.6) in males, 61.3% (CI 95%: 59.5-63.2) in females, and 63.4% (CI 95%: 62.0-64.9%) in both sexes. The prevalence of hypertriglyceridemia, hypercholesterolemia, low HDL-C, and high LDL-C, respectively, was 28.8%, 13.4%, 42.3%, and 13.4%, respectively. In multivariate logistic regression model, increase of age (for females), abdominal obesity, overweight and obesity, hypertension, and diabetes were associated with an increased odd of dyslipidemia. The prevalence of dyslipidemia in middle-aged urban population in Iran is high, and with increasing age there is an increased risk of dyslipidemia. Hence, considering the growing trend of aging in Iran, there is need for taking special measures to deal with dyslipidemia as a health priority. Furthermore, the need for planning in order to reduce the risk of dyslipidemia and prevent its complications is greater than ever. Copyright © 2016 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Terrorism-related fear and avoidance behavior in a multiethnic urban population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenman, David P; Glik, Deborah; Ong, Michael; Zhou, Qiong; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Long, Anna; Fielding, Jonathan; Asch, Steven

    2009-01-01

    We sought to determine whether groups traditionally most vulnerable to disasters would be more likely than would be others to perceive population-level risk as high (as measured by the estimated color-coded alert level) would worry more about terrorism, and would avoid activities because of terrorism concerns. We conducted a random digit dial survey of the Los Angeles County population October 2004 through January 2005 in 6 languages. We asked respondents what color alert level the country was under, how often they worry about terrorist attacks, and how often they avoid activities because of terrorism. Multivariate regression modeled correlates of worry and avoidance, including mental illness, disability, demographic factors, and estimated color-coded alert level. Persons who are mentally ill, those who are disabled, African Americans, Latinos, Chinese Americans, Korean Americans, and non-US citizens were more likely to perceive population-level risk as high, as measured by the estimated color-coded alert level. These groups also reported more worry and avoidance behaviors because of concerns about terrorism. Vulnerable populations experience a disproportionate burden of the psychosocial impact of terrorism threats and our national response. Further studies should investigate the specific behaviors affected and further elucidate disparities in the disaster burden associated with terrorism and terrorism policies.

  14. Worldwide F(ST) estimates relative to five continental-scale populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Christopher D; Court, Denise Syndercombe; Balding, David J

    2014-11-01

    We estimate the population genetics parameter FST (also referred to as the fixation index) from short tandem repeat (STR) allele frequencies, comparing many worldwide human subpopulations at approximately the national level with continental-scale populations. FST is commonly used to measure population differentiation, and is important in forensic DNA analysis to account for remote shared ancestry between a suspect and an alternative source of the DNA. We estimate FST comparing subpopulations with a hypothetical ancestral population, which is the approach most widely used in population genetics, and also compare a subpopulation with a sampled reference population, which is more appropriate for forensic applications. Both estimation methods are likelihood-based, in which FST is related to the variance of the multinomial-Dirichlet distribution for allele counts. Overall, we find low FST values, with posterior 97.5 percentiles estimates, and are also about half the magnitude of STR-based estimates from population genetics surveys that focus on distinct ethnic groups rather than a general population. Our findings support the use of FST up to 3% in forensic calculations, which corresponds to some current practice.

  15. Marginalization and health service coverage among indigenous, rural, and urban populations: a public health problem in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roldán, José; Álvarez, Marsela; Carrasco, María; Guarneros, Noé; Ledesma, José; Cuchillo-Hilario, Mario; Chávez, Adolfo

    2017-12-01

      Marginalization is a significant issue in Mexico, involving a lack of access to health services with differential impacts on Indigenous, rural and urban populations. The objective of this study was to understand Mexico’s public health problem across three population areas, Indigenous, rural and urban, in relation to degree of marginalization and health service coverage.   The sampling universe of the study consisted of 107 458 geographic locations in the country. The study was retrospective, comparative and confirmatory. The study applied analysis of variance, parametric and non-parametric, correlation and correspondence analyses.   Significant differences were identified between the Indigenous, rural and urban populations with respect to their level of marginalization and access to health services. The most affected area was Indigenous, followed by rural areas. The sector that was least affected was urban.   Although health coverage is highly concentrated in urban areas in Mexico, shortages are mostly concentrated in rural areas where Indigenous groups represent the extreme end of marginalization and access to medical coverage. Inadequate access to health services in the Indigenous and rural populations throws the gravity of the public health problem into relief.

  16. Facing the estimation of effective population size based on molecular markers: comparison of estimators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jimenez Mena, Belen; Verrier, Etienne; Hospital, Frederic

    an increase in the variability of values over time. The distance from the mean and the median to the true Ne increased over time too. This was caused by the fixation of alleles through time due to genetic drift and the changes in the distribution of allele frequencies. We compared the three estimators of Ne...

  17. Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

    2017-10-03

    Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

  18. Pattern and frequency of substance abuse in urban population of Lucknow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S C Tiwari

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The urban Lucknow community was studied during a project "A study to evolve material for prevention of drug/alcohol/tobacco (substance abuse through social marketing" funded by Council of Science & Technology, Lucknow. The paper presents pattern and frequency of substance abuse in urban population of Lucknow based upon it. Method: Two mohallas of a ward from Lucknow Municipal Corporation were selected randomly. A total of 842 heads of the households (out of 5420 members were studied using Semi Structured Socio demographic data-sheet and Proforma from WHO-ICMR a collaborative study on narcotics and psychotropic drugs. Data was analyzed using percentage, mean and S.D. Results: Out of 5420 subjects 34.31% (30.22% males & 4.09% females were found to be substance abusers. Majority of subjects used tobacco (68.17% smoking, 65.17% eating. Conclusion : Majority of subjects were regular users constituted 73.65% tobacco smokers and 74.38% eaters/chewers, 62.38% alcoholics were experimenters and amongst those who were psychotropic drug abusers, 64.28% were dependant.

  19. Phytoestrogens levels determination in the cord blood from Malaysia rural and urban populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mustafa, A.M.; Malintan, N.T.; Seelan, S.; Zhan, Z.; Mohamed, Z.; Hassan, J.; Pendek, R.; Hussain, R.; Ito, N.

    2007-01-01

    This study is a result of an analysis of free and conjugated phytoestrogens daidzein, genistein, daidzin, genistin and coumesterol in human cord blood plasma using LCMS. Cord blood was collected from urban and rural populations of Malaysia (n = 300) to establish a simple preliminary database on the levels of the analyzed compounds in the collected samples. The study also aimed to look at the levels of phytoestrogens in babies during birth as this may have a profound effect on the developmental process. The sample clean up was carried out by solid-phase extraction using C18 column and passed through DEAE sephadex gel before analysis by LCMS. The mean concentrations of total phytoestrogens were daidzein (1.4 ± 2.9 ng/ml), genistein (3.7 ± 2.8 ng/ml), daidzin (3.5 ± 3.1 ng/ml), genistin (19.5 ± 4.2 ng/ml) and coumesterol (3.3 ± 3.3 ng/ml). Distribution of phytoestrogen was found to be higher in samples collected from rural areas compared to that of urban areas

  20. Status of Vitamin B12 and Folate among the Urban Adult Population in South India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivaprasad, M; Shalini, T; Balakrishna, N; Sudarshan, M; Lopamudra, P; Suryanarayana, P; Arlappa, N; Ravikumar, B P; Radhika, M S; Reddy, G Bhanuprakash

    2016-01-01

    Deficiency of vitamin B12 (B12) and folate (FA) leads to a wide spectrum of disorders that affect all age groups. However, reports on B12 and FA status in healthy adults in India are limited. Hence, we determined the plasma levels and dietary intake of B12 and FA in the adult population. We conducted a community-based cross-sectional study in an urban setup among 630 apparently healthy adults distributed into 3 age groups: 21-40, 41-60 and >60 years. Plasma concentrations of B12 and FA were analyzed by radio immunoassay and dietary intake by 24-hour recall method. The overall prevalence of FA deficiency was 12%, but there was no significant difference in plasma FA concentrations among the groups. While the overall prevalence of B12 deficiency was 35%, it was significantly higher in the 21-40 (44%) and 41-60 age groups (40%) when compared with the >60 group (30%). B12 deficiency was higher in vegetarians (54%) compared to those consuming mixed diet (31%), and the reverse was the case with FA. However, the dietary intakes of FA and B12 were not significantly different among the groups. These results indicate a higher prevalence of B12 deficiency in apparently healthy adults in an urban setup. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  1. Communication of urgent public health messages to urban populations: lessons from the Massachusetts water main break.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, C Jason; Little, Alison A; Holliman, Jaime Bruce; Ng, Chun Y; Barrero-Castillero, Alejandra; Fu, Chong Min; Zuckerman, Barry; Bauchner, Howard

    2011-10-01

    To study when and how an urgent public health message about a boil-water order reached an urban population after the Massachusetts water main break. In-person surveys were conducted in waiting areas of clinics and emergency departments at a large urban safety net hospital within 1 week of the event. Of 533 respondents, 97% were aware of the order; 34% of those who lived in affected cities or towns were potentially exposed to contaminated water. Among those who were aware, 98% took action. Respondents first received the message through word of mouth (33%), television (25%), cellular telephone calls (20%), landline calls (10%), and other modes of communication (12%). In multivariate analyses, foreign-born respondents and those who lived outside the city of Boston had a higher risk of exposure to contaminated water. New modes (eg, cellular telephones) were used more commonly by females and younger individuals (ages 18 to 34). Individuals who did not speak English at home were more likely to receive the message through their personal networks. Given the increasing prevalence of cellular telephone use, public officials should encourage residents to register landline and cellular telephone for emergency alerts and must develop creative ways to reach immigrants and non-English-speaking groups quickly via personal networks.

  2. The Prevalence and Distribution of Vitreoretinal Interface Abnormalities among Urban Community Population in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research was to identify the prevalence and distribution of vitreoretinal interface abnormalities (VIAs among urban community population in Shenyang, China. According to the WHO criteria, a cross-sectional study was carried out among 304 Type 2 diabetes (T2D patients and 304 people without diabetes as control over 45 years old. The presence of VIAs was determined by standardized grading of macular optical coherence tomography (Optovue OCT; Optovue, Inc., Fremont, CA scans and two-field fundus photographs in at least one eye. For both men and women, high prevalence of VIAs (70.79% was observed among over 65-years-old T2D patients. Prevalence of VIAs was observed to be high among T2D patients in all age groups compared to normal subjects. Prevalence of VIAs increased with age in all subjects. Prevalence of components of VIAs was epiretinal membrane (ERM 11.43%, posterior vitreous detachment (PVD 17.76%, vitreomacular traction syndrome (VMT 5.67%, macular cysts/macular edema (MC/ME 4.61%, full-thickness macular hole (FTMH 0.82%, and partial thickness macular hole (PTMH 0.74% in any eye, respectively. ERM and MC/ME were more prevalent in T2D in both males and females. The results highlight the need for early detection using OCT and approaches for the prevention of VIAs of diabetes in urban community.

  3. Life after Stroke in an Urban Minority Population: A Photovoice Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Revathi Balakrishnan

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Stroke is a leading cause of disability in the United States and disproportionately affects minority populations. We sought to explore the quality of life in urban, minority stroke survivors through their own photos and narratives. Using the Photovoice method, seventeen stroke survivors were instructed to take pictures reflecting their experience living with and recovering from stroke. Key photographs were discussed in detail; participants brainstormed ways to improve their lives and presented their work in clinical and community sites. Group discussions were recorded, transcribed, and coded transcripts were reviewed with written narratives to identify themes. Participants conveyed recovery from stroke in three stages: learning to navigate the initial physical and emotional impact of the stroke; coping with newfound physical and emotional barriers; and long-term adaptation to physical impairment and/or chronic disease. Participants navigated this stage-based model to varying degrees of success and identified barriers and facilitators to this process. Barriers included limited access for disabled and limited healthy food choices unique to the urban setting; facilitators included presence of social support and community engagement. Using Photovoice, diverse stroke survivors were able to identify common challenges in adapting to life after stroke and important factors for recovery of quality of life.

  4. Intestinal helminths of feral cat populations from urban and suburban districts of Qatar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu-Madi, Marawan A; Behnke, Jerzy M; Prabhaker, K S; Al-Ibrahim, Roda; Lewis, John W

    2010-03-25

    A survey of the helminths of 658 adult cats from feral urban and suburban populations in Qatar was conducted across all months in 2006 and 2007. Six species of helminths were identified, comprising two cestodes (Taenia taeniaeformis [73.6%] and Diplopylidium acanthotetra [47.1%]) and four nematodes (Ancylostoma tubaeforme [14.7%], Physaloptera praeputialis [5.2%], Toxocara cati [0.8%] and Toxascaris leonina [0.2%]), and 83% of cats were infected with at least one of these. The average number of species harboured was 1.4 and the average worm burden was 55.8 worms/cat. The vast majority of worms (97.6%) were cestodes, nematodes being relatively rare. Prevalence and abundance of infections were analyzed, taking into consideration four factors: year (2006 and 2007), site (urban and suburban), season (winter and summer) and sex of the host. Analyses revealed marked year effects, female host bias in some species and interactions involving combination of factors, but especially sex and season of the year. The results indicate that whilst the majority of adult feral cats in Qatar carry helminth infections, infections are variable between years and subject to annual changes that may reflect climatic and other environmental changes in the rapidly developing city of Doha and its suburban surroundings. Only two species have the potential to infect humans and both were rare among the sampled cats (A. tubaeforme and T. cati).

  5. Life after Stroke in an Urban Minority Population: A Photovoice Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balakrishnan, Revathi; Kaplan, Benjamin; Negron, Rennie; Fei, Kezhen; Goldfinger, Judith Z; Horowitz, Carol R

    2017-03-11

    Stroke is a leading cause of disability in the United States and disproportionately affects minority populations. We sought to explore the quality of life in urban, minority stroke survivors through their own photos and narratives. Using the Photovoice method, seventeen stroke survivors were instructed to take pictures reflecting their experience living with and recovering from stroke. Key photographs were discussed in detail; participants brainstormed ways to improve their lives and presented their work in clinical and community sites. Group discussions were recorded, transcribed, and coded transcripts were reviewed with written narratives to identify themes. Participants conveyed recovery from stroke in three stages: learning to navigate the initial physical and emotional impact of the stroke; coping with newfound physical and emotional barriers; and long-term adaptation to physical impairment and/or chronic disease. Participants navigated this stage-based model to varying degrees of success and identified barriers and facilitators to this process. Barriers included limited access for disabled and limited healthy food choices unique to the urban setting; facilitators included presence of social support and community engagement. Using Photovoice, diverse stroke survivors were able to identify common challenges in adapting to life after stroke and important factors for recovery of quality of life.

  6. VOXEL-BASED APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING URBAN TREE VOLUME FROM TERRESTRIAL LASER SCANNING DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Vonderach

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The importance of single trees and the determination of related parameters has been recognized in recent years, e.g. for forest inventories or management. For urban areas an increasing interest in the data acquisition of trees can be observed concerning aspects like urban climate, CO2 balance, and environmental protection. Urban trees differ significantly from natural systems with regard to the site conditions (e.g. technogenic soils, contaminants, lower groundwater level, regular disturbance, climate (increased temperature, reduced humidity and species composition and arrangement (habitus and health status and therefore allometric relations cannot be transferred from natural sites to urban areas. To overcome this problem an extended approach was developed for a fast and non-destructive extraction of branch volume, DBH (diameter at breast height and height of single trees from point clouds of terrestrial laser scanning (TLS. For data acquisition, the trees were scanned with highest scan resolution from several (up to five positions located around the tree. The resulting point clouds (20 to 60 million points are analysed with an algorithm based on voxel (volume elements structure, leading to an appropriate data reduction. In a first step, two kinds of noise reduction are carried out: the elimination of isolated voxels as well as voxels with marginal point density. To obtain correct volume estimates, the voxels inside the stem and branches (interior voxels where voxels contain no laser points must be regarded. For this filling process, an easy and robust approach was developed based on a layer-wise (horizontal layers of the voxel structure intersection of four orthogonal viewing directions. However, this procedure also generates several erroneous "phantom" voxels, which have to be eliminated. For this purpose the previous approach was extended by a special region growing algorithm. In a final step the volume is determined layer-wise based on the

  7. Estimating effective population size from linkage disequilibrium between unlinked loci: theory and application to fruit fly outbreak populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A Sved

    Full Text Available There is a substantial literature on the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD to estimate effective population size using unlinked loci. The Ne estimates are extremely sensitive to the sampling process, and there is currently no theory to cope with the possible biases. We derive formulae for the analysis of idealised populations mating at random with multi-allelic (microsatellite loci. The 'Burrows composite index' is introduced in a novel way with a 'composite haplotype table'. We show that in a sample of diploid size S, the mean value of x2 or r2 from the composite haplotype table is biased by a factor of 1-1/(2S-12, rather than the usual factor 1+1/(2S-1 for a conventional haplotype table. But analysis of population data using these formulae leads to Ne estimates that are unrealistically low. We provide theory and simulation to show that this bias towards low Ne estimates is due to null alleles, and introduce a randomised permutation correction to compensate for the bias. We also consider the effect of introducing a within-locus disequilibrium factor to r2, and find that this factor leads to a bias in the Ne estimate. However this bias can be overcome using the same randomised permutation correction, to yield an altered r2 with lower variance than the original r2, and one that is also insensitive to null alleles. The resulting formulae are used to provide Ne estimates on 40 samples of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, from populations with widely divergent Ne expectations. Linkage relationships are known for most of the microsatellite loci in this species. We find that there is little difference in the estimated Ne values from using known unlinked loci as compared to using all loci, which is important for conservation studies where linkage relationships are unknown.

  8. Estimating effective population size from linkage disequilibrium between unlinked loci: theory and application to fruit fly outbreak populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sved, John A; Cameron, Emilie C; Gilchrist, A Stuart

    2013-01-01

    There is a substantial literature on the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD) to estimate effective population size using unlinked loci. The Ne estimates are extremely sensitive to the sampling process, and there is currently no theory to cope with the possible biases. We derive formulae for the analysis of idealised populations mating at random with multi-allelic (microsatellite) loci. The 'Burrows composite index' is introduced in a novel way with a 'composite haplotype table'. We show that in a sample of diploid size S, the mean value of x2 or r2 from the composite haplotype table is biased by a factor of 1-1/(2S-1)2, rather than the usual factor 1+1/(2S-1) for a conventional haplotype table. But analysis of population data using these formulae leads to Ne estimates that are unrealistically low. We provide theory and simulation to show that this bias towards low Ne estimates is due to null alleles, and introduce a randomised permutation correction to compensate for the bias. We also consider the effect of introducing a within-locus disequilibrium factor to r2, and find that this factor leads to a bias in the Ne estimate. However this bias can be overcome using the same randomised permutation correction, to yield an altered r2 with lower variance than the original r2, and one that is also insensitive to null alleles. The resulting formulae are used to provide Ne estimates on 40 samples of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, from populations with widely divergent Ne expectations. Linkage relationships are known for most of the microsatellite loci in this species. We find that there is little difference in the estimated Ne values from using known unlinked loci as compared to using all loci, which is important for conservation studies where linkage relationships are unknown.

  9. Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report provides estimates of the size of the unauthorized immigrant population residing in the United States as of January 2012 by period of entry, region and...

  10. Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report provides estimates of the size of the unauthorized immigrant population residing in the United States as of January 2011 by period of entry, region and...

  11. Sanitary and hygienic state estimation of population determined by cancer morbidity level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coretchi, L.; Cucereanu, A.

    2009-01-01

    The European recommendations of Cancer Register elaboration are presented in this paper. A short literature review about sanitary and hygienic estimation status of population thru determination of cancer morbidity level also has been performed. (authors)

  12. Semiparametric efficient and robust estimation of an unknown symmetric population under arbitrary sample selection bias

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan

    2013-09-01

    We propose semiparametric methods to estimate the center and shape of a symmetric population when a representative sample of the population is unavailable due to selection bias. We allow an arbitrary sample selection mechanism determined by the data collection procedure, and we do not impose any parametric form on the population distribution. Under this general framework, we construct a family of consistent estimators of the center that is robust to population model misspecification, and we identify the efficient member that reaches the minimum possible estimation variance. The asymptotic properties and finite sample performance of the estimation and inference procedures are illustrated through theoretical analysis and simulations. A data example is also provided to illustrate the usefulness of the methods in practice. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  13. Estimating the Population-Level Effectiveness of Vaccination Programs in the Netherlands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijhe, Maarten; McDonald, Scott A; de Melker, Hester E; Postma, Maarten J; Wallinga, Jacco

    There are few estimates of the effectiveness of long-standing vaccination programs in developed countries. To fill this gap, we investigate the direct and indirect effectiveness of childhood vaccination programs on mortality at the population level in the Netherlands.

  14. Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This report provides estimates of the size of the unauthorized immigrant population residing in the United States as of January 2010 by period of entry, region and...

  15. Blindness and Visual Impairment in an Urban West African Population: The Tema Eye Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budenz, Donald L.; Bandi, Jagadeesh R.; Barton, Keith; Nolan, Winifred; Herndon, Leon; Whiteside-de Vos, Julia; Hay-Smith, Graham; Kim, Hanna; Tielsch, James

    2012-01-01

    Objective To determine the prevalence, etiologies, and risk factors of blindness and visual impairment among persons age 40 years and older residing in an urban West African location. Design Population-based cross-sectional study. Participants Five thousand six hundred and three participants residing in Tema, Ghana. Methods Proportionate random cluster sampling was used to select participants age 40 and over living in the city of Tema. Presenting distance visual acuity was measured at 4 and 1 meters using a reduced Logarithm of the Minimum Angle of Resolution (logMAR) tumbling E chart and then with trial frame based on autorefraction. A screening examination was performed in the field on all participants. Complete clinical examination by an ophthalmologist was performed on participants with best corrected visual acuity blindness (visual acuity in the better eye of blindness was 1.2%. After refraction and spectacle correction, the prevalence of visual impairment and blindness decreased to 6.7% and 0.75% respectively, suggesting that refractive error is the major correctable etiology of visual impairment and blindness in this population. Of 65 subjects having visual acuity blindness and visual impairment. Conclusions There is a high prevalence of blindness and visual impairment among those aged ≥40 years in Tema, Ghana, West Africa. Refractive error is a major cause of blindness and visual impairment in this population, followed by cataract, glaucoma, and corneal disease. PMID:22677425

  16. Urban and global populism: An analysis of Jakarta as Resilient City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustikarini, A.; Kabinawa, L. N. R. W.

    2018-03-01

    One of the important elements of friendly city is its cordiality towards diversity. Cities will naturally attract people from different nationalities to live, study and work. The rapid development of cities has long been regarded as major drive of urbanization from other areas which contributed to the high level of ethnic and race diversities. However diversity is currently seen under threat due to the rise of global populism that is mainly fuelled by anxiety over economic condition. The growth of nationalist movement, anti-immigrant parties and xenophobia is gaining foothold across the planet. Against this backdrop, this paper aims at investigating the nexus between diversity and inequality in Jakarta. The current local election provides example of these two competing concepts. Jakarta as emerging global city with diverse communities had been marred by public protest and narration of identity issues. On the other hands, populism has deep root in severe economic inequality among the residents. A robust development in Jakarta has been marked by concentration of wealth in the hands of few. This paper presents case study on the root causes of growing populism and its relations with inequality in Jakarta.

  17. Medical Cannabis in Serbia: The Survey of Knowledge and Attitudes in an Urban Adult Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gazibara, Tatjana; Prpic, Milica; Maric, Gorica; Pekmezovic, Tatjana; Kisic-Tepavcevic, Darija

    2017-01-01

    There are some indices in which legalization of medical cannabis in the Republic of Serbia might be considered. The purpose of this research was to assess knowledge and attitudes towards medical cannabis in an urban adult population. This cross-sectional study was conducted in December 2015 and January 2016. A convenience sample of study participants comprised users of the Community Health Center. A total of 360 adults were invited to participate. Data were collected through an anonymous questionnaire. Most participants (77.1%) answered correctly that cancer was indicative of medical cannabis treatment, while the remaining conditions were less frequently recognized. A total of 42% answered correctly that adverse effects of cannabis were hallucinations and dizziness. Persons who previously used cannabis were more knowledgeable on conditions for medical cannabis treatment (ρ = 0.155; p = 0.006). Study respondents expressed positive attitude towards legalization of medical cannabis (median 5 out of 5) and negative towards legalization of recreational cannabis (median 2 out of 5). In conclusion, the adult population in Belgrade had some knowledge of medical cannabis. The overall attitude of our population regarding legalization of medical cannabis was positive, while the attitude towards legalization of cannabis for recreational purposes was negative.

  18. Prevalence and characteristics of reported penicillin allergy in an urban outpatient adult population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albin, Stephanie; Agarwal, Shradha

    2014-01-01

    Penicillin allergy remains the most common drug allergy, with a reported prevalence of 10% in the United States. Epidemiology of penicillin allergy in outpatient populations is relatively scarce. This study sought to determine the prevalence and characteristics of reported penicillin allergy in an urban outpatient population and to identify trends in clinical evaluation and management from a tertiary center serving a large inner-city population. A retrospective review of electronic medical records was performed of adult patients seen in the Internal Medicine Associates Clinic of Mount Sinai Hospital between January 31, 2012, and July 31, 2012. Medical records were selected based on the documentation of penicillin in patient's allergy section. Of the 11,761 patients seen in the clinic, 1348 patients (11.5%) reported a history of penicillin allergy. The most common allergic reactions were rash (37%), unknown/undocumented (20.2%), hives (18.9%), swelling/angioedema (11.8%), and anaphylaxis (6.8%). There was an increased prevalence of penicillin allergy in female patients compared with male patients (odds ratio [OR] = 1.82; 95% CI = 1.60, 2.08; p penicillin allergy compared with Caucasians (OR = 0.51; 95% CI = 0.32, 0.83; p = 0.007). However, only 78 (6%) of the patients reporting penicillin allergy had a referral to an allergy specialist. Overall, improved referral to an allergist will help to identify patients who have penicillin allergy requiring avoidance.

  19. Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Air Quality and Population Exposure in Urban Planning Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Gidhagen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We employ a nested system of global and regional climate models, linked to regional and urban air quality chemical transport models utilizing detailed inventories of present and future emissions, to study the relative impact of climate change and changing air pollutant emissions on air quality and population exposure in Stockholm, Sweden. We show that climate change only marginally affects air quality over the 20-year period studied. An exposure assessment reveals that the population of Stockholm can expect considerably lower NO2 exposure in the future, mainly due to reduced local NOx emissions. Ozone exposure will decrease only slightly, due to a combination of increased concentrations in the city centre and decreasing concentrations in the suburban areas. The increase in ozone concentration is a consequence of decreased local NOx emissions, which reduces the titration of the long-range transported ozone. Finally, we evaluate the consequences of a planned road transit project on future air quality in Stockholm. The construction of a very large bypass road (including one of the largest motorway road tunnels in Europe will only marginally influence total population exposure, this since the improved air quality in the city centre will be complemented by deteriorated air quality in suburban, residential areas.

  20. [Population dynamics, urban structure, and production of living space in the metropolitan zone of Mexico City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schteingart, M

    1989-01-01

    "In this article, an attempt is made to account for certain trends in the growth and distribution of the population, and in the structuring of living space in the metropolitan zone of Mexico City.... Among the important conclusions of this essay are those having to do with the huge growth of some political-administrative units and the relation of this phenomenon to the practices followed by private realtors, often articulated with the policies and programs set by the State's housing agencies, as well as those that associate urban growth and expansion with the development of habitational spaces within the so-called 'formal' and 'informal' housing sectors." Data are from Mexican censuses and other official sources. (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

  1. Prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of dyslipidemia in older persons in urban and rural population in the Astana region, Kazakhstan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Supiyev, Adil; Nurgozhin, Talgat; Zhumadilov, Zhaxybay; Peasey, Anne; Hubacek, Jaroslav A; Bobak, Martin

    2017-08-11

    Despite high cardiovascular mortality in Central Asian republics of the former Soviet Union, there is limited information about major risk factors, including blood lipids. We investigated the prevalence of impaired concentrations of blood lipids, the awareness, treatment and control of hypercholesterolemia, and factors associated with these indicators in urban and rural populations in Kazakhstan. We conducted a cross-sectional study of random urban and rural population samples (the state capital Astana and Akmol village). Men and women aged 50-74 years were examined; a total of 954 adults participated (response rate 59%). Serum concentrations of total, LDL and HDL cholesterol and triglycerides and a range of other cardiovascular risk factors were measured. The overall prevalence of hypercholesterolemia (total cholesterol ≥6.2 mmol/l) was 37%; among subjects with hypercholesterolemia, 57% were aware of their condition, 41% took medication and 23% had total cholesterol <6.2 mmol/l (4.5% <5 mmol/l). The prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypercholesterolemia were all higher in the urban than the rural area. Similarly, the proportions of subjects with impaired concentrations of specific lipids fractions were also considerably higher in the urban population. Most associations with other covariates were in the expected direction. This study found relatively high prevalence of dyslipidemia in the Kazakh population, and the blood lipid profile was less favourable in the urban area. These pronounced urban-rural differences may be related to urbanization, the associated nutrition transition and to access to health care.

  2. Statistical summary of selected physical, chemical, and microbial characteristics, and estimates of constituent loads in urban stormwater, Maricopa County, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, T.J.; Fossum, K.D.; Phillips, J.V.; Monical, J.E.

    1995-01-01

    Stormwater and streamflow in the Phoenix, Arizona, area were monitored to determine the physical, chemical, and microbial characteristics of storm- water from areas having different land uses; to describe the characteristics of streamflow in a river that receives urban stormwater; and to estimate constituent loads in stormwater from unmonitored areas in Maricopa County, Arizona. Land use affects urban stormwater chemistry mostly because the percentage of impervious area controls the suspended-solids concentrations and varies with the type of land use. Urban activities also seem to concentrate cadmium, lead, and zinc in sediments. Urban stormwater had larger concentrations of chemical oxygen demand and biological oxygen demand, oil and grease, and higher counts of fecal bacteria than streamflow and could degrade the quality of the Salt River. Most regression equations for estimating constituent loads require three explanatory variables (total rainfall, drainage area, and per- centage of impervious area) and had standard errors that were from 65 to 266 percent. Localized areas that appear to contribute a large proportion of the constituent loads typically have 40 percent or more impervious area and are associated with industrial, commercial, and high-density residential land uses. The use of the mean value of the event-mean constituent concentrations measured in stormwater may be the best way of estimating constituent concentrations.

  3. [Sociodemographic and environmental factors associated with sports physical activity in the urban population of Peru].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seclén-Palacín, Juan A; Jacoby, Enrique R

    2003-10-01

    To determine the frequency of sports physical activity in the urban population of Peru and to identify the sociodemographic, economic, and environmental factors associated with that activity. This study utilized information collected by the country's National Household Survey (Encuesta Nacional de Hogares) in the second quarter of 1997. That Survey is overseen by Peru's National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática). The Survey was based on a probabilistic, multistage sample that was stratified for all the urban areas of the country, which was divided into eight geographic regions: metropolitan Lima, northern coast, central coast, southern coast, northern mountains, central mountains, southern mountains, and jungle. In total, 14 913 homes were visited and 45 319 people at least 15 years of age were interviewed. The frequency of engaging in sports physical activity was classified as daily, every other day, weekly, or occasional. "Regular sports activity" (RSA) was defined as engaging in sports either every day or every other day. The preferences for and obstacles to sports practice were also examined. A descriptive analysis of the levels of RSA was carried out for gender, using the chi-square test. The factors associated with RSA were analyzed through conditional multiple logistic regression and analysis of residuals, multicollinearity, and interactions. The level of significance was set at P jungle (15.3%), central mountains (12.8%), and central coast (12.1%). RSA was least common in two regions: southern mountains (9.7%) and metropolitan Lima (10.6%). The income bracket was not associated with RSA. However, other variables associated indirectly with the socioeconomic level - such as having more formal education, being employed, and having access to the Internet or cable television - and consumption of sports information were significantly and directly associated with RSA. The most frequent barriers to

  4. Assessing damage cost estimation of urban pluvial flood risk as a mean of improving climate change adaptations investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how it will be affected by climate change and how much can be gained by implementing adaptation...... measures. This study investigates three different methods for estimating the EAD based on a loglinear relation between the damage costs and the return periods, one of which has been used in previous studies. The results show with the increased amount of data points there appears to be a shift in the log......-linear relation which could be contributed by the Danish design standards for drainage systems. Three different methods for estimating the EAD were tested and the choice of method is less important than accounting for the log-linear shift. This then also means that the statistical approximation of the EAD used...

  5. Validation of the EQ-5D in a general population sample in urban China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hong-Mei; Patrick, Donald L; Edwards, Todd C; Skalicky, Anne M; Zeng, Hai-Yan; Gu, Wen-Wen

    2012-02-01

    To evaluate the reliability and validity of the EQ-5D in a general population sample in urban China. Thousand and eight hundred respondents in 18 communities of Hangzhou, China were recruited by multi-stage stratified random sampling. Respondents self-administered a questionnaire including the EQ-5D, the SF-36, and demographic questions. Test-retest reliability at 2-week intervals was evaluated using Kappa coefficient, the intraclass correlation coefficient. The standard error of measurement (SEM) was used to indicate the absolute measurement error. Construct validity was established using convergent, discriminant, and known groups analyses. Complete data for all EQ-5D dimensions were available for 1,747 respondents (97%). Kappa values were from 0.35 to 1.0. The ICCs of test-retest reliability were 0.53 for the EQ-5D index score and 0.87 for the EQ VAS score. The SEM values were 0.13 (9.22% range) and 4.20 (4.20% range) for the EQ-5D index and EQ VAS scores, respectively. The Pearson's correlation coefficients between the EQ-5D and the SF-36 were stronger between comparable dimensions than those between less comparable dimensions, demonstrating convergent and discriminant evidence of construct validity. The Chinese EQ-5D distinguished well between known groups: respondents who reported poor general health and chronic diseases had worse HRQoL than those without. Older people, females, people widowed or divorced, and those with a lower socioeconomic status reported poorer HRQoL. Respondents reporting no problems on any EQ-5D dimension had better scores on the SF-36 summary scores than those reporting problems. The Chinese version of the EQ-5D demonstrated acceptable construct validity and fair to moderate levels of test-retest reliability in an urban general population in China.

  6. Urban-rural differences in a population-based breast cancer screening program in Croatia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamenić, Valerija; Strnad, Marija

    2011-01-01

    Aim To investigate urban-rural differences in the distribution of risk factors for breast cancer. Methods We analyzed the data from the first round of the “Mamma” population based-screening program conducted in Croatia between 2007 and 2009 and self-reported questionnaire results for 924 patients with histologically verified breast cancer. Reproductive and anthropometric characteristics, family history of breast cancer, history of breast disease, and prior breast screening history were compared between participants from the city of Zagreb (n = 270) and participants from 13 counties with more than 50% of rural inhabitants (n = 654). Results The screen-detected breast cancer rate was 4.5 per 1000 mammographies in rural counties and 4.6 in the city of Zagreb, while the participation rate was 61% in rural counties and 59% in Zagreb. Women from Zagreb had significantly more characteristics associated with an increased risk of breast cancer (P < 0.001 in all cases): no pregnancies (15% vs 7%), late age of first pregnancy (≥30 years) (10% vs 4%), and the most recent mammogram conducted 2-3 years ago (32% vs 14%). Women from rural counties were more often obese (41% vs 28%) and had early age of first live birth (<20 years) (20% vs 7%, P < 0.001 for both). Conclusion Identification of rural-urban differences in mammography use and their causes at the population level can be useful in designing and implementing interventions targeted at the reduction of inequalities and modifiable risk factors. PMID:21328724

  7. Epidemiology and population structure of Staphylococcus aureus in various population group