WorldWideScience

Sample records for urban growth model

  1. Modeling urban fire growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterman, T.E.; Takata, A.N.

    1983-01-01

    The IITRI Urban Fire Spread Model as well as others of similar vintage were constrained by computer size and running costs such that many approximations/generalizations were introduced to reduce program complexity and data storage requirements. Simplifications were introduced both in input data and in fire growth and spread calculations. Modern computational capabilities offer the means to introduce greater detail and to examine its practical significance on urban fire predictions. Selected portions of the model are described as presently configured, and potential modifications are discussed. A single tract model is hypothesized which permits the importance of various model details to be assessed, and, other model applications are identified

  2. Modeling Urban Spatial Growth in Mountainous Regions of Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoping Huang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The scale and speed of urbanization in the mountainous regions of western China have received little attention from researchers. These cities are facing rapid population growth and severe environmental degradation. This study analyzed historical urban growth trends in this mountainous region to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth pattern and the mountainous topography. Three major factors—slope, accessibility, and land use type—were studied in light of their relationships with urban spatial growth. With the analysis of historical data as the basis, a conceptual urban spatial growth model was devised. In this model, slope, accessibility, and land use type together create resistance to urban growth, while accessibility controls the sequence of urban development. The model was tested and evaluated using historical data. It serves as a potential tool for planners to envision and assess future urban growth scenarios and their potential environmental impacts to make informed decisions.

  3. Modeling Urban Collaborative Growth Dynamics Using a Multiscale Simulation Model for the Wuhan Urban Agglomeration Area, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Yu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban agglomeration has become the predominant form of urbanization in China. In this process, spatial interaction evidently played a significant role in promoting the collaborative development of these correlated cities. The traditional urban model’s focus on individual cities should be transformed to an urban system model. In this study, a multi-scale simulation model has been proposed to simulate the agglomeration development process of the Wuhan urban agglomeration area by embedding the multi-scale spatial interaction into the transition rule system of cellular automata (CA. A system dynamic model was used to predict the demand for new urban land at an aggregated urban agglomeration area scale. A data field approach was adopted to measuring the interaction of intercity at city scale. Neighborhood interaction was interpreted with a logistic regression method at the land parcel scale. Land use data from 1995, 2005, and 2015 were used to calibrate and evaluate the model. The simulation results show that there has been continuing urban growth in the Wuhan urban agglomeration area from 1995 to 2020. Although extension-sprawl was the predominant pattern of urban spatial expansion, the trend of extensive growth to intensive growth is clear during the entire period. The spatial interaction among these cities has been reinforced, which guided the collaborative development and formed the regional urban system network.

  4. Spatio-temporal landscape modeling of urban growth patterns in Dhanbad Urban Agglomeration, India using geoinformatics techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanhaiya Lal

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The study deals with the quantification of urban sprawl and land transformation of Dhanbad Urban Agglomeration (DUA using geoinformatics and gradient modeling during last four decades (1972–2011. Various multi-temporal satellite images viz., MSS (1972, ETM+ (1999, 2011 and digital elevation model (CARTOSAT I, 2006 were used to analyse the urban expansion, land transformation, growth directions, and spatial segregations within the urban landscape to develop an understanding the nature of built-up growth in DUA. The urban area increased from 10.33 km2 to 46.70 km2 (352.08% along with high rate of population growth (160.07% during 1972–2011 exhibiting population densification in DUA. The study reveals that coal mining based city faced significant land use transformation converting vegetation (−41.33% into built-up land (352.08% exhibiting loss of productive lands for the expansion of impervious surface. The per year urban growth exhibited increasing urban growth from 0.4 km2/year to 1.51 km2/year during 1972–1999 and 1999–2011 periods with overall growth of 332.73%. The built-up growth on varied elevation zones exhibits that the elevation zones 150–200 m is the most preferred (79.01% for urban development with high growth (541.74%. The gradient modeling represents that the percentage of land (built-up gradually increased from 3.48% to 15.74% during 1972–2011. The result exhibited that the major growth took place in south-west direction followed by south direction in haphazard manner during 1971–99 period, whereas predominant built-up development was observed in north, south and south-west direction during 1999–2011 period, majorly within the municipal limits. The study provides an analytical method to evaluate the built-up growth patterns of an urban milieu combining geoinformatics and landscape matrix. The built-up growth in DUA indicates urgent imposition of building bylaws along with zoning (land use, height and density

  5. Modeling urban growth in Kigali city Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nduwayezu, G.; Sliuzas, R.V.; Kuffer, M.

    2017-01-01

    The uncontrolled urban growth is the key characteristics in most cities in less developed countries. However, having a good understanding of the key drivers of the city's growth dynamism has proven to be a key instrument to manage urban growth. This paper investigates the main determinants of Kigali

  6. [Employment and urban growth; an application of Czamanski's model to the Mexican case].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verduzco Chavez, B

    1991-01-01

    The author applies the 1964 model developed by Stanislaw Czamanski, based on theories of urban growth and industrial localization, to the analysis of urban growth in Mexico. "The advantages of this model in its application as a support instrument in the process of urban planning when the information available is incomplete are...discussed...." Census data for 44 cities in Mexico are used. (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

  7. Modeling urban growth in Kigali city Rwanda

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kagoyire

    industrialization, land consumption and infrastructural development, have impacted ..... urban growth (reference image) and urban development predicted to the ..... neighboring characteristics (regular water and electricity provision) were not ...

  8. Urban Growth Modelling with Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression. Case Study: Sanandaj City, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SASSAN MOHAMMADY

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities have shown remarkable growth due to attraction, economic, social and facilities centralization in the past few decades. Population and urban expansion especially in developing countries, led to lack of resources, land use change from appropriate agricultural land to urban land use and marginalization. Under these circumstances, land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Different approaches have been attempted in urban expansion modelling. Artificial Neural network (ANN models are among knowledge-based models which have been used for urban growth modelling. ANNs are powerful tools that use a machine learning approach to quantify and model complex behaviour and patterns. In this research, ANN and logistic regression have been employed for interpreting urban growth modelling. Our case study is Sanandaj city and we used Landsat TM and ETM+ imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006. The dataset used includes distance to main roads, distance to the residence region, elevation, slope, and distance to green space. Percent Area Match (PAM obtained from modelling of these changes with ANN is equal to 90.47% and the accuracy achieved for urban growth modelling with Logistic Regression (LR is equal to 88.91%. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit for ANN method were 91.33% and 59.07% and then for LR were 90.84% and 57.07%, respectively.

  9. Firm dynamic analysis for urban land use and economic growth modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Che'Man, N.; Sabri, S.; Hosni, N.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    In urban growth processes, urbanisation is highly influenced by economic growth which triggers the dynamics of economic agents and land uses. This is consisted of complex subsystems which need sophisticated methods like agent-based modelling and simulation to understand the pattern, behaviour and

  10. Urban Growth Modeling Using AN Artificial Neural Network a Case Study of Sanandaj City, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pahlavani, P.

    2014-10-01

    Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Modelling and managing urban growth is a complex problem. Cities are now recognized as complex, non-linear and dynamic process systems. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. Local governments that implement urban growth models need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban uses within the boundary. There are so many negative implications related with the type of inappropriate urban development such as increased traffic and demand for mobility, reduced landscape attractively, land use fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and alterations of the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to use the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to make a powerful tool for simulating urban growth patterns. Our study area is Sanandaj city located in the west of Iran. Landsat imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006 are used. Dataset were used include distance to principle roads, distance to residential areas, elevation, slope, distance to green spaces and distance to region centers. In this study an appropriate methodology for urban growth modelling using satellite remotely sensed data is presented and evaluated. Percent Correct Match (PCM) and Figure of Merit were used to evaluate ANN results.

  11. URBAN GROWTH MODELING USING AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK A CASE STUDY OF SANANDAJ CITY, IRAN

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    S. Mohammady

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Modelling and managing urban growth is a complex problem. Cities are now recognized as complex, non-linear and dynamic process systems. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. Local governments that implement urban growth models need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban uses within the boundary. There are so many negative implications related with the type of inappropriate urban development such as increased traffic and demand for mobility, reduced landscape attractively, land use fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and alterations of the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to use the Artificial Neural Network (ANN to make a powerful tool for simulating urban growth patterns. Our study area is Sanandaj city located in the west of Iran. Landsat imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006 are used. Dataset were used include distance to principle roads, distance to residential areas, elevation, slope, distance to green spaces and distance to region centers. In this study an appropriate methodology for urban growth modelling using satellite remotely sensed data is presented and evaluated. Percent Correct Match (PCM and Figure of Merit were used to evaluate ANN results.

  12. Random-growth urban model with geographical fitness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kii, Masanobu; Akimoto, Keigo; Doi, Kenji

    2012-12-01

    This paper formulates a random-growth urban model with a notion of geographical fitness. Using techniques of complex-network theory, we study our system as a type of preferential-attachment model with fitness, and we analyze its macro behavior to clarify the properties of the city-size distributions it predicts. First, restricting the geographical fitness to take positive values and using a continuum approach, we show that the city-size distributions predicted by our model asymptotically approach Pareto distributions with coefficients greater than unity. Then, allowing the geographical fitness to take negative values, we perform local coefficient analysis to show that the predicted city-size distributions can deviate from Pareto distributions, as is often observed in actual city-size distributions. As a result, the model we propose can generate a generic class of city-size distributions, including but not limited to Pareto distributions. For applications to city-population projections, our simple model requires randomness only when new cities are created, not during their subsequent growth. This property leads to smooth trajectories of city population growth, in contrast to other models using Gibrat’s law. In addition, a discrete form of our dynamical equations can be used to estimate past city populations based on present-day data; this fact allows quantitative assessment of the performance of our model. Further study is needed to determine appropriate formulas for the geographical fitness.

  13. Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

    2017-01-01

    Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

  14. The Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Urban Growth Using Remote Sensing and Intelligent Algorithms, Case of Mahabad, Iran

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    Alì Soltani

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The simulation of urban growth can be considered as a useful way for analyzing the complex process of urban physical evolution. The aim of this study is to model and simulate the complex patterns of land use change by utilizing remote sensing and artificial intelligence techniques in the fast growing city of Mahabad, north-west of Iran which encountered with several environmental subsequences. The key subject is how to allocate optimized weight into effective parameters upon urban growth and subsequently achieving an improved simulation. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN algorithm was used to allocate the weight via an iteration approach. In this way, weight allocation was carried out by the ANN training accomplishing through time-series satellite images representing urban growth process. Cellular Automata (CA was used as the principal motor of the model and then ANN applied to find suitable scale of parameters and relations between potential factors affecting urban growth. The general accuracy of the suggested model and obtained Fuzzy Kappa Coefficient confirms achieving better results than classic CA models in simulating nonlinear urban evolution process.

  15. Urban growth management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Gertrud; Alexander Sick Nielsen, Thomas; Grünfelder, Julien

    2011-01-01

    , and finally urban attractivity policies. Effective regional bodies are needed to deal with urban expansion and peri-urbanisation at a relevant scale; European rural and agricultural policies makes up the main ‘policy complex’ targeting the non-urban area including its land uses; while lastly leverage of urban...... urban growth and curb urban sprawl in a wider sense. Methodology The main methodology of the paper is a desk-research based review of policy options supplemented with field study and interviews in selected cased study regions. This paper consists of two parts. The first part is based on literature...... there are contradictions in the evidence presented in the literature, we believe that it may be safely said that urban growth management policies have an influence on urban growth under certain preconditions including: sufficient time for implementation and continuity of efforts; choice of appropriate policy measures...

  16. Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

    2016-12-01

    Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than

  17. Modeling urban growth by the use of a multiobjective optimization approach: environmental and economic issues for the Yangtze watershed, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenting; Wang, Haijun; Han, Fengxiang; Gao, Juan; Nguyen, Thuminh; Chen, Yarong; Huang, Bo; Zhan, F Benjamin; Zhou, Lequn; Hong, Song

    2014-11-01

    Urban growth is an unavoidable process caused by economic development and population growth. Traditional urban growth models represent the future urban growth pattern by repeating the historical urban growth regulations, which can lead to a lot of environmental problems. The Yangtze watershed is the largest and the most prosperous economic area in China, and it has been suffering from rapid urban growth from the 1970s. With the built-up area increasing from 23,238 to 31,054 km(2) during the period from 1980 to 2005, the watershed has suffered from serious nonpoint source (NPS) pollution problems, which have been mainly caused by the rapid urban growth. To protect the environment and at the same time maintain the economic development, a multiobjective optimization (MOP) is proposed to tradeoff the multiple objectives during the urban growth process of the Yangtze watershed. In particular, the four objectives of minimization of NPS pollution, maximization of GDP value, minimization of the spatial incompatibility between the land uses, and minimization of the cost of land-use change are considered by the MOP approach. Conventionally, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed to search the Pareto solution set. In our MOP approach, a two-dimensional GA, rather than the traditional one-dimensional GA, is employed to assist with the search for the spatial optimization solution, where the land-use cells in the two-dimensional space act as genes in the GA. Furthermore, to confirm the superiority of the MOP approach over the traditional prediction approaches, a widely used urban growth prediction model, cellular automata (CA), is also carried out to allow a comparison with the Pareto solution of MOP. The results indicate that the MOP approach can make a tradeoff between the multiple objectives and can achieve an optimal urban growth pattern for Yangtze watershed, while the CA prediction model just represents the historical urban growth pattern as the future growth pattern

  18. Urban tree growth modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    E. Gregory McPherson; Paula J. Peper

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes three long-term tree growth studies conducted to evaluate tree performance because repeated measurements of the same trees produce critical data for growth model calibration and validation. Several empirical and process-based approaches to modeling tree growth are reviewed. Modeling is more advanced in the fields of forestry and...

  19. Forecasting urban growth across the United States-Mexico border

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, L.M.; Feller, M.; Phillip, Guertin D.

    2009-01-01

    The sister-city area of Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, is known collectively as Ambos (both) Nogales. This area was historically one city and was administratively divided by the Gadsden Purchase in 1853. These arid-lands have limited and sensitive natural resources. Environmental planning can support sustainable development to accommodate the predicted influx of population. The objective of this research is to quantify the amount of predicted urban growth for the Ambos Nogales watershed to support future planning for sustainable development. Two modeling regimes are explored. Our goal is to identify possible growth patterns associated with the twin-city area as a whole and with the two cities modeled as separate entities. We analyzed the cross-border watershed using regression analysis from satellite images from 1975, 1983, 1996, and 2002 and created urban area classifications. We used these classifications as input to the urban growth model, SLEUTH, to simulate likely patterns of development and define projected conversion probabilities. Model results indicate that the two cities are undergoing very different patterns of change and identify locations of expected growth based on historical development. Growth in Nogales, Arizona is stagnant while the urban area in Nogales, Sonora is exploding. This paper demonstrates an application that portrays how future binational urban growth could develop and affect the environment. This research also provides locations of potential growth for use in city planning.

  20. Modeling the dynamics of urban growth using multinomial logistic regression: a case study of Jiayu County, Hubei Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Yu; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Kun; Miao, Lei; Zhang, Weiwei

    2008-10-01

    Urban growth modeling, one of the most important aspects of land use and land cover change study, has attracted substantial attention because it helps to comprehend the mechanisms of land use change thus helps relevant policies made. This study applied multinomial logistic regression to model urban growth in the Jiayu county of Hubei province, China to discover the relationship between urban growth and the driving forces of which biophysical and social-economic factors are selected as independent variables. This type of regression is similar to binary logistic regression, but it is more general because the dependent variable is not restricted to two categories, as those previous studies did. The multinomial one can simulate the process of multiple land use competition between urban land, bare land, cultivated land and orchard land. Taking the land use type of Urban as reference category, parameters could be estimated with odds ratio. A probability map is generated from the model to predict where urban growth will occur as a result of the computation.

  1. Modeling Urban Growth Spatial Dynamics: Case studies of Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchta, Katja; Abo El Wafa, Hany; Printz, Andreas; Pauleit, Stephan

    2013-04-01

    Rapid urbanization, and consequently, the dramatic spatial expansion of mostly informal urban areas increases the vulnerability of African cities to the effects of climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent flooding, droughts and heat waves. The EU FP 7 funded project CLUVA (Climate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, www.cluva.eu) aims to develop strategies for minimizing the risks of natural hazards caused by climate change and to improve the coping capacity of African cities. Green infrastructure may play a particular role in climate change adaptation by providing ecosystem services for flood protection, stormwater retention, heat island moderation and provision of food and fuel wood. In this context, a major challenge is to gain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the cities and how these impact on green infrastructure and hence their vulnerability. Urban growth scenarios for two African cities, namely Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, were developed based on a characterization of their urban morphology. A population growth driven - GIS based - disaggregation modeling approach was applied. Major impact factors influencing the urban dynamics were identified both from literature and interviews with local experts. Location based factors including proximity to road infrastructure and accessibility, and environmental factors including slope, surface and flood risk areas showed a particular impact on urban growth patterns. In Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam, population density scenarios were modeled comparing two housing development strategies. Results showed that a densification scenario significantly decreases the loss of agricultural and green areas such as forests, bushland and sports grounds. In Dar es Salaam, the scenario of planned new settlements with a population density of max. 350 persons per hectare would lead until 2025 to a loss of agricultural land (-10.1%) and green areas (-6.6%). On the other

  2. Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Spatial Determinants of Urban Growth in Suzhou, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Zhang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban growth and models its spatial determinants in China through a case study of Suzhou, a rapidly industrializing and globalizing city. We conducted spatial analysis on land use data derived from multi-temporal remote sensing images of Suzhou from 1986 to 2008. Three urban growth types, namely infilling, edge-expansion, and leapfrog, were identified. We used landscape metrics to quantify the temporal trend of urban growth in Suzhou. During these 22 years, Suzhou’s urbanization changed from bottom-up rural urbanization to city-based top-down urban expansion. The underlying mechanism changed from TVE (town village enterprise driven rural industrialization to FDI (foreign direct investment driven development zone fever. Furthermore, we employed both global and local logistic regressions to model the probability of urban land conversion against a set of spatial variables. The global logistic regression model found the significance of proximity, neighborhood conditions, and socioeconomic factors. The logistic geographically weighted regression (GWR model improved the global regression model with better model goodness-of-fit and higher prediction accuracy. More importantly, the local parameter estimates of variables enabled us to exam spatial variations of the influences of variables on urban growth in Suzhou.

  3. Land Cover Mapping Analysis and Urban Growth Modelling Using Remote Sensing Techniques in Greater Cairo Region—Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasmine Megahed

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study modeled the urban growth in the Greater Cairo Region (GCR, one of the fastest growing mega cities in the world, using remote sensing data and ancillary data. Three land use land cover (LULC maps (1984, 2003 and 2014 were produced from satellite images by using Support Vector Machines (SVM. Then, land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique that combines binary maps (change/no-change and post classification comparison technique. The spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using selected statistical metrics developed in the FRAGSTATS software. Major transitions to urban were modeled to predict the future scenarios for year 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM embedded in the IDRISI software. The model results, after validation, indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will be urbanized in 2025. The urban areas within a 5-km buffer around: the Great Pyramids, Islamic Cairo and Al-Baron Palace were calculated, highlighting an intense urbanization especially around the Pyramids; 28% in 2014 up to 40% in 2025. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers to adjust and develop new plans to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas and to protect the historical locations.

  4. Revealing the Driving Forces of Mid-Cities Urban Growth Patterns Using Spatial Modeling: a Case Study of Los Ángeles, Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio I. Aguayo

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available City growth and changes in land-use patterns cause various important social and environmental impacts. To understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of these processes, the factors that drive urban development must be identified and analyzed, especially those factors that can be used to predict future changes and their potential environmental effects. Our objectives were to quantify the relationship between urban growth and its driving forces and to predict the spatial growth pattern based on historical land-use changes for the city of Los Ángeles in central Chile. This involved the analysis of images from 1978, 1992, and 1998 and characterization of the spatial pattern of land-use change; the construction of digital coverage in GIS; the selection of predictive variables through univariate analysis; the construction of logistic regression models using growth vs. nongrowth for 1978-1992 as the dependent variable; and the prediction of the probability of land-use change by applying the regression model to the 1992-1998 period. To investigate the influence of spatial scale, we constructed several sets of models that contained (1 only distance variables, e.g., distance to highways; (2 only scale-dependent density variables, e.g., density of urban area within a 600-m radius; (3 both distance and density variables; and (4 both distance and density variables at several spatial scales. The environmental variables were included in all models. The combination of distance and density variables at several scales is required to appropriately capture the multiscale urban growth process. The best models correctly predict ~90% of the observed land-use changes for 1992-1998. The distance to access roads, densities of the urban road system and urbanized area at various scales, and soil type were the strongest predictors of the growth pattern. Other variables were less important or not significant in explaining the urban growth process. Our approach, which

  5. Simulating urban growth in the George town conurbation | Samat ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... Therefore, this paper aims to develop an urban growth simulation model using GIS-based CA-Markov approach, incorporated with driving forces of urban growth in the Malaysian context. ... Keywords: CA-Markov; Geograpghic Information Sciences (GIS); Land use changes;

  6. Urban Growth Modeling Using Anfis Algorithm: a Case Study for Sanandaj City, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pijanowski, B. C.

    2013-10-01

    Global urban population has increased from 22.9% in 1985 to 47% in 2010. In spite of the tendency for urbanization worldwide, only about 2% of Earth's land surface is covered by cities. Urban population in Iran is increasing due to social and economic development. The proportion of the population living in Iran urban areas has consistently increased from about 31% in 1956 to 68.4% in 2006. Migration of the rural population to cities and population growth in cities have caused many problems, such as irregular growth of cities, improper placement of infrastructure and urban services. Air and environmental pollution, resource degradation and insufficient infrastructure, are the results of poor urban planning that have negative impact on the environment or livelihoods of people living in cities. These issues are a consequence of improper land use planning. Models have been employed to assist in our understanding of relations between land use and its subsequent effects. Different models for urban growth modeling have been developed. Methods from computational intelligence have made great contributions in all specific application domains and hybrid algorithms research as a part of them has become a big trend in computational intelligence. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has the capability to deal with imprecise data by training, while fuzzy logic can deal with the uncertainty of human cognition. ANN learns from scratch by adjusting the interconnections between layers and Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) is a popular computing framework based on the concept of fuzzy set theory, fuzzy logic, and fuzzy reasoning. Fuzzy logic has many advantages such as flexibility and at the other sides, one of the biggest problems in fuzzy logic application is the location and shape and of membership function for each fuzzy variable which is generally being solved by trial and error method. In contrast, numerical computation and learning are the advantages of neural network, however, it is

  7. URBAN GROWTH MODELING USING ANFIS ALGORITHM: A CASE STUDY FOR SANANDAJ CITY, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mohammady

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Global urban population has increased from 22.9% in 1985 to 47% in 2010. In spite of the tendency for urbanization worldwide, only about 2% of Earth's land surface is covered by cities. Urban population in Iran is increasing due to social and economic development. The proportion of the population living in Iran urban areas has consistently increased from about 31% in 1956 to 68.4% in 2006. Migration of the rural population to cities and population growth in cities have caused many problems, such as irregular growth of cities, improper placement of infrastructure and urban services. Air and environmental pollution, resource degradation and insufficient infrastructure, are the results of poor urban planning that have negative impact on the environment or livelihoods of people living in cities. These issues are a consequence of improper land use planning. Models have been employed to assist in our understanding of relations between land use and its subsequent effects. Different models for urban growth modeling have been developed. Methods from computational intelligence have made great contributions in all specific application domains and hybrid algorithms research as a part of them has become a big trend in computational intelligence. Artificial Neural Network (ANN has the capability to deal with imprecise data by training, while fuzzy logic can deal with the uncertainty of human cognition. ANN learns from scratch by adjusting the interconnections between layers and Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS is a popular computing framework based on the concept of fuzzy set theory, fuzzy logic, and fuzzy reasoning. Fuzzy logic has many advantages such as flexibility and at the other sides, one of the biggest problems in fuzzy logic application is the location and shape and of membership function for each fuzzy variable which is generally being solved by trial and error method. In contrast, numerical computation and learning are the advantages of neural network

  8. Spatial stochastic regression modelling of urban land use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arshad, S H M; Jaafar, J; Abiden, M Z Z; Latif, Z A; Rasam, A R A

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization is very closely linked to industrialization, commercialization or overall economic growth and development. This results in innumerable benefits of the quantity and quality of the urban environment and lifestyle but on the other hand contributes to unbounded development, urban sprawl, overcrowding and decreasing standard of living. Regulation and observation of urban development activities is crucial. The understanding of urban systems that promotes urban growth are also essential for the purpose of policy making, formulating development strategies as well as development plan preparation. This study aims to compare two different stochastic regression modeling techniques for spatial structure models of urban growth in the same specific study area. Both techniques will utilize the same datasets and their results will be analyzed. The work starts by producing an urban growth model by using stochastic regression modeling techniques namely the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The two techniques are compared to and it is found that, GWR seems to be a more significant stochastic regression model compared to OLS, it gives a smaller AICc (Akaike's Information Corrected Criterion) value and its output is more spatially explainable

  9. Fractal dimension evolution and spatial replacement dynamics of urban growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yanguang

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The fractal dimension growth can be modeled by Boltzmann’s equation. ► Boltzmann’s model suggests urban spatial replacement dynamics. ► If the rate of urban growth is too high, periodic oscillations or chaos will arise. ► Chaos is associated with fractals by the fractal dimension evolution model. ► The fractal dimension of urban form implies the space-filling ratio of a city. - Abstract: This paper presents a new perspective of looking at the relation between fractals and chaos by means of cities. Especially, a principle of space filling and spatial replacement is proposed to interpret the fractal dimension of urban form. The fractal dimension evolution of urban growth can be empirically modeled with Boltzmann’s equation. For the normalized data, Boltzmann’s equation is just equivalent to the logistic function. The logistic equation can be transformed into the well-known 1-dimensional logistic map, which is based on a 2-dimensional map suggesting spatial replacement dynamics of city development. The 2-dimensional recurrence relations can be employed to generate the nonlinear dynamical behaviors such as bifurcation and chaos. A discovery is thus made in this article that, for the fractal dimension growth following the logistic curve, the normalized dimension value is the ratio of space filling. If the rate of spatial replacement (urban growth) is too high, the periodic oscillations and chaos will arise. The spatial replacement dynamics can be extended to general replacement dynamics, and bifurcation and chaos mirror a process of complex replacement.

  10. Urban Growth Modeling Using Cellular Automata with Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Images Calibrated by the Artificial Bee Colony Optimization Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naghibi, Fereydoun; Delavar, Mahmoud Reza; Pijanowski, Bryan

    2016-12-14

    Cellular Automata (CA) is one of the most common techniques used to simulate the urbanization process. CA-based urban models use transition rules to deliver spatial patterns of urban growth and urban dynamics over time. Determining the optimum transition rules of the CA is a critical step because of the heterogeneity and nonlinearities existing among urban growth driving forces. Recently, new CA models integrated with optimization methods based on swarm intelligence algorithms were proposed to overcome this drawback. The Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm is an advanced meta-heuristic swarm intelligence-based algorithm. Here, we propose a novel CA-based urban change model that uses the ABC algorithm to extract optimum transition rules. We applied the proposed ABC-CA model to simulate future urban growth in Urmia (Iran) with multi-temporal Landsat images from 1997, 2006 and 2015. Validation of the simulation results was made through statistical methods such as overall accuracy, the figure of merit and total operating characteristics (TOC). Additionally, we calibrated the CA model by ant colony optimization (ACO) to assess the performance of our proposed model versus similar swarm intelligence algorithm methods. We showed that the overall accuracy and the figure of merit of the ABC-CA model are 90.1% and 51.7%, which are 2.9% and 8.8% higher than those of the ACO-CA model, respectively. Moreover, the allocation disagreement of the simulation results for the ABC-CA model is 9.9%, which is 2.9% less than that of the ACO-CA model. Finally, the ABC-CA model also outperforms the ACO-CA model with fewer quantity and allocation errors and slightly more hits.

  11. Quantitative Analysis of Intra Urban Growth Modeling using socio economic agents by combining cellular automata model with agent based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, V. K.; Jha, A. K.; Gupta, K.; Srivastav, S. K.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies indicate that there is a significant improvement in the urban land use dynamics through modeling at finer spatial resolutions. Geo-computational models such as cellular automata and agent based model have given evident proof regarding the quantification of the urban growth pattern with urban boundary. In recent studies, socio- economic factors such as demography, education rate, household density, parcel price of the current year, distance to road, school, hospital, commercial centers and police station are considered to the major factors influencing the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) pattern of the city. These factors have unidirectional approach to land use pattern which makes it difficult to analyze the spatial aspects of model results both quantitatively and qualitatively. In this study, cellular automata model is combined with generic model known as Agent Based Model to evaluate the impact of socio economic factors on land use pattern. For this purpose, Dehradun an Indian city is selected as a case study. Socio economic factors were collected from field survey, Census of India, Directorate of economic census, Uttarakhand, India. A 3X3 simulating window is used to consider the impact on LULC. Cellular automata model results are examined for the identification of hot spot areas within the urban area and agent based model will be using logistic based regression approach where it will identify the correlation between each factor on LULC and classify the available area into low density, medium density, high density residential or commercial area. In the modeling phase, transition rule, neighborhood effect, cell change factors are used to improve the representation of built-up classes. Significant improvement is observed in the built-up classes from 84 % to 89 %. However after incorporating agent based model with cellular automata model the accuracy improved from 89 % to 94 % in 3 classes of urban i.e. low density, medium density and commercial classes

  12. Hourly Water Quality Dynamics in Rivers Downstream of Urban Areas: Quantifying Seasonal Variation and Modelling Impacts of Urban Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchins, M.; McGrane, S. J.; Miller, J. D.; Hitt, O.; Bowes, M.

    2016-12-01

    Continuous monitoring of water flows and quality is invaluable in improving understanding of the influence of urban areas on river health. When used to inform predictive modelling, insights can be gained as to how urban growth may affect the chemical and biological quality of rivers as they flow downstream into larger waterbodies. Water flow and quality monitoring in two urbanising sub-catchments (long term flow records are available, but particular focus is given to monitoring of an extended set of sites during prolonged winter rainfall. In the Ray sub-catchment streams were monitored in which urban cover varied across a range of 7-78%. A rural-urban gradient in DO was apparent in the low flow period prior to the storms. Transient low DO (works (STW). In this respect temperature- and respiration-driven DO sags in summer were at least if not more severe than those driven by the winter storms. Likewise, although winter storm NH4 concentrations violated EU legislation downstream of the STW, they were lower than summer concentrations in pollutant flushes following dry spells. In contrast the predominant phenomenon affecting water quality in the Cut during the storms was dilution. Here, a river water quality model was calibrated and applied over the course of a year to capture the importance of periphyton photosynthesis and respiration cycles in determining water quality and to predict the influence of hypothetical urban growth on downstream river health. The periods monitored intensively, dry spells followed by prolonged rainfall, represent: (i) marked changes in conditions likely to become more prevalent in future, (ii) situations under which water quality in urban areas is likely to be particularly vulnerable, being influenced for example by first flush effects followed by capacity exceedance at STW. Despite this, whilst being somewhat long lasting in places, impacts on DO were not severe.

  13. Planning instruments to control urban growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2010-01-01

    It is challenging to plan and control urban development in peri-urban areas. But if no planning is done, the result will often be unsustainable, including widespread, dispersed and uncoordinated urban growth. Spatial planning based on zoning remains the most important planning instrument and its...... success depend on regional coordination. Incentive based instruments may contrbute to growth management, but only few examples are available and their effects on urban growth patterns yet to be seen....

  14. Change detection of runoff-urban growth relationship in urbanised watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abas, Aisya Azizah; Hashim, Mazlan

    2014-01-01

    Urban growth has negative environmental impacts that create water-based disasters such as flash floods and storm runoff causing billions of dollars worth of damage each year. Due to serious flash floods in urbanised areas of Malaysia, water resource management is a vital issue. This paper reports on a study that has been carried out using remote sensing techniques and hydrological modelling for examining the spatial patterns changes of urban areas and its impacts on surface runoff. The estimation of surface runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS CN) method was performed by integrating both remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. Remote sensing is a data sources for monitoring urban growth by quantifying the changes of urban area and its environmental impact are then analysed by using a GIS-based hydrological model. By linking the integrated approach of remote sensing and GIS, the relationship of runoff with urban expansion are further examined. Hence, the changes in runoff due to urbanisation are analysed. This methodology is applied to the central region of Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur, where rapid urban growth has occurred over the last decade. The results showed that there was a significant between spatial patterns of urban growth and estimated runoff depth. The increase in runoff from year 2000, 2006 and 2010 are estimated about five percent

  15. Policy Tools for Addressing Urban Sprawl: Urban Growth Boundaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric J. STRAUSS

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available The analysis herein explores the topic of urban growth boundaries and how local governments in Romania could use this growth management tool in order to address unplanned, haphazard growth that is taking place at the fringe of cities and in the villages/ farming communities that surround them. The structure of the paper is threefold. The first section focuses on a brief socio-economic profile of Cluj-Napoca, Romania. The aim is to provide a better context and facilitate the reader’s understanding of the nature of urban growth and suburbanization in Romania. Cluj-Napoca is currently in the process of adopting a master plan for the city and specific policy recommendations on how to address urban sprawl may prove useful. The authors hope to stir a debate among scholars, practitioners, and residents with regard to how the city of Cluj will further develop and whether future development should occur in the same manner it occurred during the last 10 years. The second section of the paper is meant to introduce the concepts of growth management and urban growth boundaries. The former is described in terms of a planning philosophy while the latter is portrayed as a specific policy tool that growth management advocates suggest it could be used in order to fight sprawl. A case study on urban growth boundaries is presented in order to underscore specific advantages and disadvantages associated with establishing a growth boundary. The last section comprises several preliminary policy recommendations for the city of Cluj-Napoca. Because of the incomplete data the authors currently have on critical issues some of the recommendations are general in scope and need to be further detailed.

  16. Impacts of urban growth and heat waves events on the urban heat island in Bucharest city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, Maria A.; Savastru, Roxana S.; Savastru, Dan M.; Dida, Adrian I.

    2016-10-01

    This study investigated the influences of urban growth and heat waves events on Urban Heat Island in relationship with several biophysical variables in Bucharest metropolitan area of Romania through satellite and in-situ monitoring data. Remote sensing data from Landsat TM/ETM+ and time series MODIS Terra/Aqua sensors have been used to assess urban land cover- temperature interactions over period between 2000 and 2016 years. Vegetation abundances and percent impervious surfaces were derived by means of linear spectral mixture model, and a method for effectively enhancing impervious surface has been developed to accurately examine the urban growth. The land surface temperature (Ts), a key parameter for urban thermal characteristics analysis, was also analyzed in relation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at city level. Based on these parameters, the urban growth, urban heat island effect (UHI) and the relationships of Ts to other biophysical parameters (surface albedo, precipitations, wind intensity and direction) have been analyzed. Results show that in the metropolitan area ratio of impervious surface in Bucharest increased significantly during investigated period, the intensity of urban heat island and heat wave events being most significant. The correlation analyses revealed that, at the pixel-scale, Ts possessed a strong positive correlation with percent impervious surfaces and negative correlation with vegetation abundances at the regional scale, respectively. This analysis provided an integrated research scheme and the findings can be very useful for urban ecosystem modeling.

  17. The Delimitation of Urban Growth Boundaries Using the CLUE-S Land-Use Change Model: Study on Xinzhuang Town, Changshu City, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Zhou

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decades, urban growth boundaries (UGBs have been regarded as effective tools applied by planners and local governments to curb urban sprawl and guide urban smart growth. The UGBs help limit urban development to suitable areas and protect surrounding agricultural and ecological landscapes. At present, China’s Town and Country Planning Act officially requires the delimitation of UGBs in a city master planning outline and in central urban area planning. However, China’s practices in UGBs are usually determined by urban planners and local authorities, and lack a sound analytical basis. Consequently, Chinese UGBs are often proven to be inefficient for controlling urban expansion. In this paper, take the fast-growing Xinzhuang town of Changshu city, eastern China as an example, a new method towards establishing UGBs is proposed based on land-use change model (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent, CLUE-S. The results of our study show that the land-use change and urban growth simulation accuracy of CLUE-S model is high. The expansion of construction land and the decrease of paddy field would be the main changing trends of local land use, and a good deal of cultivated land and ecological land would be transformed into construction land in 2009–2027. There is remarkable discordance in the spatial distribution between the simulated UGBs based on the CLUE-S model and the planned UGBs based on the conventional method, where the simulated results may more closely reflect the reality of urban growth laws. Therefore, we believe that our method could be a useful planning tool for the delimitation of UGBs in Chinese cities.

  18. Urban population and economic growth: South Asia perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandip Sarker

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Previously economic growth was generally discussed in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI, educational growth, savings, investments, inflation as well as trade openness of a nation. Very recently it has been identified that population is one of the major determinants of economic growth of a nation. In the recent years, the study of urbanization has gained a matter of concern in developing countries as it has been recognized as part of a larger process of economic development which is affecting developing countries. South Asian countries are one of the emerging economics and growing at a faster rate over the past few years. At the same time, population of South Asia is growing at a significant rate. Therefore the study has attempted to identify the causal relationship between urban population and economic growth in South Asia using a panel data analysis. The study makes use of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF and Phillips-Perron (PP, Pesaran as well as Fisher methods for panel unit root test. The panel Pedroni cointegration test suggests that there is long run relationship between the variables. The further panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM suggests that there is long run causality running from urban population growth to economic growth in South Asia. The study concludes that the growth of urban population can have significant impact on economic growth in South Asia in the long run.

  19. A coupled model approach to reduce nonpoint-source pollution resulting from predicted urban growth: A case study in the Ambos Nogales watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, L.M.; Guertin, D.P.; Feller, M.

    2008-01-01

    The development of new approaches for understanding processes of urban development and their environmental effects, as well as strategies for sustainable management, is essential in expanding metropolitan areas. This study illustrates the potential of linking urban growth and watershed models to identify problem areas and support long-term watershed planning. Sediment is a primary source of nonpoint-source pollution in surface waters. In urban areas, sediment is intermingled with other surface debris in transport. In an effort to forecast the effects of development on surface-water quality, changes predicted in urban areas by the SLEUTH urban growth model were applied in the context of erosion-sedimentation models (Universal Soil Loss Equation and Spatially Explicit Delivery Models). The models are used to simulate the effect of excluding hot-spot areas of erosion and sedimentation from future urban growth and to predict the impacts of alternative erosion-control scenarios. Ambos Nogales, meaning 'both Nogaleses,' is a name commonly used for the twin border cities of Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico. The Ambos Nogales watershed has experienced a decrease in water quality as a result of urban development in the twin-city area. Population growth rates in Ambos Nogales are high and the resources set in place to accommodate the rapid population influx will soon become overburdened. Because of its remote location and binational governance, monitoring and planning across the border is compromised. One scenario described in this research portrays an improvement in water quality through the identification of high-risk areas using models that simulate their protection from development and replanting with native grasses, while permitting the predicted and inevitable growth elsewhere. This is meant to add to the body of knowledge about forecasting the impact potential of urbanization on sediment delivery to streams for sustainable development, which can be

  20. Spatiotemporal variability of urban growth factors: A global and local perspective on the megacity of Mumbai

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Helbich, Marco

    2015-03-01

    The rapid growth of megacities requires special attention among urban planners worldwide, and particularly in Mumbai, India, where growth is very pronounced. To cope with the planning challenges this will bring, developing a retrospective understanding of urban land-use dynamics and the underlying driving-forces behind urban growth is a key prerequisite. This research uses regression-based land-use change models - and in particular non-spatial logistic regression models (LR) and auto-logistic regression models (ALR) - for the Mumbai region over the period 1973-2010, in order to determine the drivers behind spatiotemporal urban expansion. Both global models are complemented by a local, spatial model, the so-called geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model, one that explicitly permits variations in driving-forces across space. The study comes to two main conclusions. First, both global models suggest similar driving-forces behind urban growth over time, revealing that LRs and ALRs result in estimated coefficients with comparable magnitudes. Second, all the local coefficients show distinctive temporal and spatial variations. It is therefore concluded that GWLR aids our understanding of urban growth processes, and so can assist context-related planning and policymaking activities when seeking to secure a sustainable urban future.

  1. Comprehensive evaluation system of intelligent urban growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lian-Yan; Ren, Xiao-Bin

    2017-06-01

    With the rapid urbanization of the world, urban planning has become increasingly important and necessary to ensure people have access to equitable and sustainable homes, resources and jobs.This article is to talk about building an intelligent city evaluation system.First,using System Analysis Model(SAM) which concludes literature data analysis and stepwise regression analysis to describe intelligent growth scientifically and obtain the evaluation index. Then,using the improved entropy method to obtain the weight of the evaluation index.Afterwards, establishing a complete Smart Growth Comprehensive Evaluation Model(SGCEM).Finally,testing the correctness of the model.Choosing Otago(New Zealand )and Yumen(China) as research object by data mining and SGCEM model,then we get Yumen and Otago’s rational degree’s values are 0.3485 and 0.5376 respectively. It’s believed that the Otago’s smart level is higher,and it is found that the estimated value of rationality is consistent with the reality.

  2. CA-Markov Analysis of Constrained Coastal Urban Growth Modeling: Hua Hin Seaside City, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajendra Shrestha

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Thailand, a developing country in Southeast Asia, is experiencing rapid development, particularly urban growth as a response to the expansion of the tourism industry. Hua Hin city provides an excellent example of an area where urbanization has flourished due to tourism. This study focuses on how the dynamic urban horizontal expansion of the seaside city of Hua Hin is constrained by the coast, thus making sustainability for this popular tourist destination—managing and planning for its local inhabitants, its visitors, and its sites—an issue. The study examines the association of land use type and land use change by integrating Geo-Information technology, a statistic model, and CA-Markov analysis for sustainable land use planning. The study identifies that the land use types and land use changes from the year 1999 to 2008 have changed as a result of increased mobility; this trend, in turn, has everything to do with urban horizontal expansion. The changing sequences of land use type have developed from forest area to agriculture, from agriculture to grassland, then to bare land and built-up areas. Coastal urban growth has, for a decade, been expanding horizontally from a downtown center along the beach to the western area around the golf course, the southern area along the beach, the southwest grassland area, and then the northern area near the airport.

  3. Is Urban Economic Growth Inclusive in India?

    OpenAIRE

    Tripathi, Sabyasachi

    2013-01-01

    This paper measures the overall inclusive growth of a city by considering changing trends in the key economic variables based on ‘Borda ranking’ and establishes a relationship between city economic growth and overall city inclusive growth. By using data of 52 large cities in India, this paper finds that higher urban economic growth is associated with an increase in urban inequality, a reduction in urban poverty, and a lower level of overall inclusive growth of a city.

  4. Analysis, Assessment and Modeling of The Urban Growth in Greater Muscat, Sultanate of Oman, Using Geographical Information Systems and Remote Sensing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Awadhi, T.

    2008-01-01

    Muscat Governorate is the main governorate in the Sultanate of Oman and at the same time, it is the capital of the country. The urban of Muscat expanded on the area rapidly. So, the process of the growth, the controlling factors and the side problems which become apparent need to be highlighted. In order to determine the urban growth between 1960 and 2003, multi data sources and techniques have been used under a GIS environment. This research aims to measure and to model the urban expansion of Muscat Governorate using the combined technologies of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS). Based on the detailed datasets and knowledge of historical land use maps attempts were made to simulate future growth patterns of the city. The outcome of this exercise was the design of six urban growth maps covering the years 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2003. The results show that the total urban expansion reached more than 650% between 1960 and 2003, with an annual growth rate of approximately 20%. A combination of human and physical factors controlled this rapid growth. The paper discusses also the current urban problems resulting from this rapid growth as well as its future spatial trends

  5. Juvenile coho salmon growth and health in streams across an urbanization gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanjer, Andrew R.; Moran, Patrick W.; Larsen, Kimberly; Wetzel, Lisa; Hansen, Adam G.; Beauchamp, David A.

    2018-01-01

    Expanding human population and urbanization alters freshwater systems through structural changes to habitat, temperature effects from increased runoff and reduced canopy cover, altered flows, and increased toxicants. Current stream assessments stop short of measuring health or condition of species utilizing these freshwater habitats and fail to link specific stressors mechanistically to the health of organisms in the stream. Juvenile fish growth integrates both external and internal conditions providing a useful indicator of habitat quality and ecosystem health. Thus, there is a need to account for ecological and environmental influences on fish growth accurately. Bioenergetics models can simulate changes in growth and consumption in response to environmental conditions and food availability to account for interactions between an organism's environmental experience and utilization of available resources. The bioenergetics approach accounts for how thermal regime, food supply, and food quality affect fish growth. This study used a bioenergetics modeling approach to evaluate the environmental factors influencing juvenile coho salmon growth among ten Pacific Northwest streams spanning an urban gradient. Urban streams tended to be warmer, have earlier emergence dates and stronger early season growth. However, fish in urban streams experienced increased stress through lower growth efficiencies, especially later in the summer as temperatures warmed, with as much as a 16.6% reduction when compared to fish from other streams. Bioenergetics modeling successfully characterized salmonid growth in small perennial streams as part of a more extensive monitoring program and provides a powerful assessment tool for characterizing mixed life-stage specific responses in urban streams.

  6. Landscape urbanization and economic growth in China: positive feedbacks and sustainability dilemmas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Xuemei; Chen, Jing; Shi, Peijun

    2012-01-03

    Accelerating urbanization has been viewed as an important instrument for economic development and reducing regional income disparity in some developing countries, including China. Recent studies (Bloom et al. 2008) indicate that demographic urbanization level has no causal effect on economic growth. However, due to the varying and changing definition of urban population, the use of demographic indicators as a sole representing indicator for urbanization might be misleading. Here, we re-examine the causal relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Chinese cities and provinces in recent decades, using built-up areas as a landscape urbanization indicator. Our analysis shows that (1) larger cities, both in terms of population size and built-up area, and richer cities tend to gain more income, have larger built-up area expansion, and attract more population, than poorer cities or smaller cities; and (2) that there is a long-term bidirectional causality between urban built-up area expansion and GDP per capita at both city and provincial level, and a short-term bidirectional causality at provincial level, revealing a positive feedback between landscape urbanization and urban and regional economic growth in China. Our results suggest that urbanization, if measured by a landscape indicator, does have causal effect on economic growth in China, both within the city and with spillover effect to the region, and that urban land expansion is not only the consequences of economic growth in cities, but also drivers of such growth. The results also suggest that under its current economic growth model, it might be difficult for China to control urban expansion without sacrificing economic growth, and China's policy to stop the loss of agricultural land, for food security, might be challenged by its policy to promote economic growth through urbanization.

  7. Simulating Urban Growth Using a Random Forest-Cellular Automata (RF-CA Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courage Kamusoko

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable urban planning and management require reliable land change models, which can be used to improve decision making. The objective of this study was to test a random forest-cellular automata (RF-CA model, which combines random forest (RF and cellular automata (CA models. The Kappa simulation (KSimulation, figure of merit, and components of agreement and disagreement statistics were used to validate the RF-CA model. Furthermore, the RF-CA model was compared with support vector machine cellular automata (SVM-CA and logistic regression cellular automata (LR-CA models. Results show that the RF-CA model outperformed the SVM-CA and LR-CA models. The RF-CA model had a Kappa simulation (KSimulation accuracy of 0.51 (with a figure of merit statistic of 47%, while SVM-CA and LR-CA models had a KSimulation accuracy of 0.39 and −0.22 (with figure of merit statistics of 39% and 6%, respectively. Generally, the RF-CA model was relatively accurate at allocating “non-built-up to built-up” changes as reflected by the correct “non-built-up to built-up” components of agreement of 15%. The performance of the RF-CA model was attributed to the relatively accurate RF transition potential maps. Therefore, this study highlights the potential of the RF-CA model for simulating urban growth.

  8. Discovery of Transition Rules for Cellular Automata Using Artificial Bee Colony and Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms in Urban Growth Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fereydoun Naghibi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an advanced method in urban growth modeling to discover transition rules of cellular automata (CA using the artificial bee colony (ABC optimization algorithm. Also, comparisons between the simulation results of CA models optimized by the ABC algorithm and the particle swarm optimization algorithms (PSO as intelligent approaches were performed to evaluate the potential of the proposed methods. According to previous studies, swarm intelligence algorithms for solving optimization problems such as discovering transition rules of CA in land use change/urban growth modeling can produce reasonable results. Modeling of urban growth as a dynamic process is not straightforward because of the existence of nonlinearity and heterogeneity among effective involved variables which can cause a number of challenges for traditional CA. ABC algorithm, the new powerful swarm based optimization algorithms, can be used to capture optimized transition rules of CA. This paper has proposed a methodology based on remote sensing data for modeling urban growth with CA calibrated by the ABC algorithm. The performance of ABC-CA, PSO-CA, and CA-logistic models in land use change detection is tested for the city of Urmia, Iran, between 2004 and 2014. Validations of the models based on statistical measures such as overall accuracy, figure of merit, and total operating characteristic were made. We showed that the overall accuracy of the ABC-CA model was 89%, which was 1.5% and 6.2% higher than those of the PSO-CA and CA-logistic model, respectively. Moreover, the allocation disagreement (simulation error of the simulation results for the ABC-CA, PSO-CA, and CA-logistic models are 11%, 12.5%, and 17.2%, respectively. Finally, for all evaluation indices including running time, convergence capability, flexibility, statistical measurements, and the produced spatial patterns, the ABC-CA model performance showed relative improvement and therefore its superiority was

  9. Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aburas, Maher Milad; Ho, Yuek Ming; Ramli, Mohammad Firuz; Ash'aari, Zulfa Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The creation of an accurate simulation of future urban growth is considered one of the most important challenges in urban studies that involve spatial modeling. The purpose of this study is to improve the simulation capability of an integrated CA-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model using CA-MC based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and CA-MC based on Frequency Ratio (FR), both applied in Seremban, Malaysia, as well as to compare the performance and accuracy between the traditional and hybrid models. Various physical, socio-economic, utilities, and environmental criteria were used as predictors, including elevation, slope, soil texture, population density, distance to commercial area, distance to educational area, distance to residential area, distance to industrial area, distance to roads, distance to highway, distance to railway, distance to power line, distance to stream, and land cover. For calibration, three models were applied to simulate urban growth trends in 2010; the actual data of 2010 were used for model validation utilizing the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Kappa coefficient methods Consequently, future urban growth maps of 2020 and 2030 were created. The validation findings confirm that the integration of the CA-MC model with the FR model and employing the significant driving force of urban growth in the simulation process have resulted in the improved simulation capability of the CA-MC model. This study has provided a novel approach for improving the CA-MC model based on FR, which will provide powerful support to planners and decision-makers in the development of future sustainable urban planning.

  10. Inter-Regional Spillovers and Urban-Rural Disparity in U.S. Employment Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Hisamitsu Saito; Munisamy Gopinath; JunJie Wu

    2011-01-01

    A wide urban-rural disparity is observed in employment growth in the United States. For example, employment growth averaged 2.1 percent in urban counties during 1998-2007, compared with just 1 percent in rural counties. In this study, we examine the sources of U.S. employment growth using the county-level industry data. From an analytical labor-market model, we derive equilibrium employment growth as a function of growth in neighborhood characteristics and initial conditions such as accumulat...

  11. The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickens, Bradley A.; Marcus, Jeffrey F.; Carpenter, John P.; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J.; Collazo, Jaime A.

    2017-01-01

    A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010–2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation.

  12. Driving factors of urban land growth in Guangzhou and its implications for sustainable development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Xuezhu; Li, Shaoying; Wang, Xuetong; Xue, Xiaolong

    2018-04-01

    Since 2000, China's urban land has expanded at a dramatic speed because of the country's rapid urbanization. The country has been experiencing unbalanced development between rural and urban areas, causing serious challenges such as agricultural security and land resources waste. Effectively evaluating the driving factors of urban land growth is essential for improving efficient land use management and sustainable urban development. This study established a principal component regression model based on eight indicators to identify their influences on urban land growth in Guangzhou. The results provided a grouping analysis of the driving factors, and found that economic growth, urban population, and transportation development are the driving forces of urban land growth of Guangzhou, while the tertiary industry has an opposite effect. The findings led to further suggestions and recommendations for urban sustainable development. Hence, local governments should design relevant policies for achieving the rational development of urban land use and strategic planning on urban sustainable development.

  13. Urban Heat Island Growth Modeling Using Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression: A case study of Tehran, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherafati, Sh. A.; Saradjian, M. R.; Niazmardi, S.

    2013-09-01

    Numerous investigations on Urban Heat Island (UHI) show that land cover change is the main factor of increasing Land Surface Temperature (LST) in urban areas. Therefore, to achieve a model which is able to simulate UHI growth, urban expansion should be concerned first. Considerable researches on urban expansion modeling have been done based on cellular automata. Accordingly the objective of this paper is to implement CA method for trend detection of Tehran UHI spatiotemporal growth based on urban sprawl parameters (such as Distance to nearest road, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Slope and Aspect ratios). It should be mentioned that UHI growth modeling may have more complexities in comparison with urban expansion, since the amount of each pixel's temperature should be investigated instead of its state (urban and non-urban areas). The most challenging part of CA model is the definition of Transfer Rules. Here, two methods have used to find appropriate transfer Rules which are Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). The reason of choosing these approaches is that artificial neural networks and support vector regression have significant abilities to handle the complications of such a spatial analysis in comparison with other methods like Genetic or Swarm intelligence. In this paper, UHI change trend has discussed between 1984 and 2007. For this purpose, urban sprawl parameters in 1984 have calculated and added to the retrieved LST of this year. In order to achieve LST, Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) night-time images have exploited. The reason of implementing night-time images is that UHI phenomenon is more obvious during night hours. After that multilayer feed-forward neural networks and support vector regression have used separately to find the relationship between this data and the retrieved LST in 2007. Since the transfer rules might not be the same in different regions, the satellite image of the city has

  14. Urban growth and landscape connectivity threats assessment at Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkl, Ryan; Norman, Laura M.; Mitchell, David; Feller, Mark R.; Smith, Garrett; Wilson, Natalie R.

    2018-01-01

    Urban and exurban expansion results in habitat and biodiversity loss globally. We hypothesize that a coupled-model approach could connect urban planning for future cities with landscape ecology to consider wildland habitat connectivity. Our work combines urban growth simulations with models of wildlife corridors to examine how species will be impacted by development to test this hypothesis. We leverage a land use change model (SLEUTH) with structural and functional landscape-connectivity modeling techniques to ascertain the spatial extent and locations of connectivity related threats to a national park in southern Arizona, USA, and describe how protected areas might be impacted by urban expansion. Results of projected growth significantly altered structural connectivity (80%) when compared to current (baseline) corridor conditions. Moreover, projected growth impacted functional connectivity differently amongst species, indicating resilience of some species and near-complete displacement of others. We propose that implementing a geospatial-design-based model will allow for a better understanding of the impacts management decisions have on wildlife populations. The application provides the potential to understand both human and environmental impacts of land-system dynamics, critical for long-term sustainability.

  15. The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickens, Bradley A; Marcus, Jeffrey F; Carpenter, John P; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J; Collazo, Jaime A

    2017-04-15

    A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010-2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. Modelling the impact of sanitation, population growth and urbanization on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters—a case study for Bangladesh and India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Lucie C.; de Kraker, Jelske; Hofstra, Nynke; Kroeze, Carolien; Medema, Gertjan

    2015-09-01

    Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a global model by Hofstra et al (2013 Sci. Total Environ. 442 10-9) and zoom into Bangladesh and India as illustrative case studies. The model is most sensitive to changes in oocyst excretion and infection rate, and to assumptions on the share of faeces reaching the surface water for different sanitation types. We find urban centres to be hotspots of human Cryptosporidium emissions. We estimate that 53% (Bangladesh) and 91% (India) of total emissions come from urban areas. 50% of oocysts come from only 8% (Bangladesh) and 3% (India) of the country area. In the future, population growth and urbanization may further deteriorate water quality in Bangladesh and India, despite improved sanitation. Under our ‘business as usual’ (‘sanitation improvements’) scenario, oocyst emissions will increase by a factor 2.0 (1.2) for India and 2.9 (1.1) for Bangladesh between 2010 and 2050. Population growth, urbanization and sanitation development are important processes to consider for large scale water quality modelling.

  17. Projected Impact of Urban Growth on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Federico; Murgante, Beniamino; Martellozzo, Federico

    2017-04-01

    Human activities on land use such as intensive agricultural techniques and urbanization are generating a number of social and economic benefit for contemporary society. Besides, these phenomena are one of the most significant causes of Land Degradation. Firstly, intensive agriculture is on the one hand creating an advantage in the short-period in terms of food production, while on the other is producing serious long-period problems in terms of loss of ecosystem services, including some important for agriculture itself. Secondly, the rapid growth of urban areas in recent decades is generating deep environmental issues. The World Urbanization Prospect by the United Nations (UN) shows that more than half of the world's population today (54%) lives in urban areas. This figure was only 30% in 1950, and estimates are that it will rise to 66% by 2050. Urban growth is responsible for the increase of air pollution, waste production, energy consumption, and land take. Moreover, the expansion of urban areas is making the problem of urban heat islands more relevant, and studies are proving how land cover changes are among the main factors that affect local microclimates. Consequently, territorial planning will play an important role in the fight to mitigate the effects of climate change, as land cover has a significant impact on the energy exchanges between the earth and the atmosphere. This study couples urban growth simulation models based on cellular automata to multiple linear regression techniques that are used to formulate equations for predicting the effects of simulated urban development on soil surface temperature. The proposed methodology is applied to the case study of the Italian national territory, considering various alternative scenarios of land use changes and of their impact on local surface temperatures. The results show that the areas with the greatest urban pressure might be subject to significant climatic changes due to the increased impact of urban heat

  18. A New Era for Urban Modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Pumain , Denise

    1994-01-01

    International audience; In the last two decades, several interesting innovations have appeared in the field of urban research. New paradigms such as the dynamics of open systems, self-organization, synergetics, chaos, evolution, were recognized as conveying fruitful analogies for urban theory. New types of modeling were investigated, as sets of non-linear differential equations for spatial systems, cellular automata, multi-agents models, fractal growth, neural networks, evolutionary models… H...

  19. OPEN SOURCE APPROACH TO URBAN GROWTH SIMULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Petrasova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Spatial patterns of land use change due to urbanization and its impact on the landscape are the subject of ongoing research. Urban growth scenario simulation is a powerful tool for exploring these impacts and empowering planners to make informed decisions. We present FUTURES (FUTure Urban – Regional Environment Simulation – a patch-based, stochastic, multi-level land change modeling framework as a case showing how what was once a closed and inaccessible model benefited from integration with open source GIS.We will describe our motivation for releasing this project as open source and the advantages of integrating it with GRASS GIS, a free, libre and open source GIS and research platform for the geospatial domain. GRASS GIS provides efficient libraries for FUTURES model development as well as standard GIS tools and graphical user interface for model users. Releasing FUTURES as a GRASS GIS add-on simplifies the distribution of FUTURES across all main operating systems and ensures the maintainability of our project in the future. We will describe FUTURES integration into GRASS GIS and demonstrate its usage on a case study in Asheville, North Carolina. The developed dataset and tutorial for this case study enable researchers to experiment with the model, explore its potential or even modify the model for their applications.

  20. The effects of urban growth on dengue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Aurélio Pereira Horta

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue in Coronel Fabriciano, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, and to associate cases to the growth of urban areas and loss of natural areas in recent years. Methods: This is a descriptive, exploratory study, with a quantitative approach. Dengue cases of 2009 were obtained from the Health Municipal Secretariat, including the suspected and confirmed cases. Shape files were obtained, containing information about the municipal boundary, boundary of the urban area, census tracts, areas with buildings and natural areas. Based on the distribution of dengue cases, the Kernel estimator was used to measure data dispersion. Results: Dengue cases reported were georeferenced in GIS (Geographic Information System environment. The landscape showed changes in the units of urban area and pasture, as an urban growth over the pasture matrix. No changes were observed in the areas of remaining forest and eucalyptus. There are cases spatially spread with a tendency to form clusters. Conclusion: Cases of dengue were observed spatially clustered in the northern region of the city, where new neighborhoods have emerged in recent years, following the population growth without proper structure of urbanization and urban planning. In addition, urban growth have reduced the margin of watercourses providing a bare soil, suitable for accumulation of trash and formation of breeding sites for mosquitoes. Efficient public policies and appropriate urban planning might reduce the impact of dengue in endemic regions. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5020/18061230.2013.p539

  1. Spatiotemporal simulation of urban growth patterns using agent-based modeling: The case of Tehran

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jokar Arsanjani, J.; Helbich, M.; Vaz, E.

    2013-01-01

    Rapid urban growth is becoming a serious problem in most developing countries. Tehran, the capital of Iran, stands out as a vibrant metropolitan area, facing uncontrolled urban expansion. Public authorities and decision makers require planning criteria regarding possible spatial developments. To

  2. Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costa da Silva, Diego Firmino; Elhorst, J. Paul; Silveira Neto, Raul da Mota

    2017-01-01

    Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities. Regional Studies. Using Bayesian posterior model probabilities and data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian minimum comparable areas (MCAs) over the period 1970-2010, two theoretical settings of population growth dynamics resulting in

  3. Migration, urban population growth and regional disparity in China

    OpenAIRE

    Renard, Mary-Françoise; Xu, Zelai; Zhu, Nong

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to study the determinants of city population growth in China during the 1990s', as well as the determinants of migrations towards cities, which constitutes the main source of urban population growth in this period. A second objective is to identify regional differences in the urban growth and migrations, that is, whether urban growth and migration patterns are different between coastal and inland provinces. Additionally, we are interested in the differences...

  4. Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

  5. Implications of rural-urban migration for conservation of the Atlantic Forest and urban growth in Misiones, Argentina (1970-2030).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izquierdo, Andrea E; Grau, Héctor R; Aide, T Mitchell

    2011-05-01

    Global trends of increasing rural-urban migration and population urbanization could provide opportunities for nature conservation, particularly in regions where deforestation is driven by subsistence agriculture. We analyzed the role of rural population as a driver of deforestation and its contribution to urban population growth from 1970 to the present in the Atlantic Forest of Argentina, a global conservation priority. We created future land-use-cover scenarios based on human demographic parameters and the relationship between rural population and land-cover change between 1970 and 2006. In 2006, native forest covered 50% of the province, but by 2030 all scenarios predicted a decrease that ranged from 18 to 39% forest cover. Between 1970 and 2001, rural migrants represented 20% of urban population growth and are expected to represent less than 10% by 2030. This modeling approach shows how rural-urban migration and land-use planning can favor nature conservation with little impact on urban areas.

  6. Urban sprawl, smart growth, and deliberative democracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnik, David B

    2010-10-01

    Urban sprawl is an increasingly common feature of the built environment in the United States and other industrialized nations. Although there is considerable evidence that urban sprawl has adverse affects on public health and the environment, policy frameworks designed to combat sprawl-such as smart growth-have proven to be controversial, making implementation difficult. Smart growth has generated considerable controversy because stakeholders affected by urban planning policies have conflicting interests and divergent moral and political viewpoints. In some of these situations, deliberative democracy-an approach to resolving controversial public-policy questions that emphasizes open, deliberative debate among the affected parties as an alternative to voting-would be a fair and effective way to resolve urban-planning issues.

  7. Regional assessment of urban impacts on landcover and open space finds a smart urban growth policy performs little better than business as usual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, James H; Santos, Maria J; Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H

    2013-01-01

    Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region's ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km² in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km² (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km² (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km² of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km² to 2239 km² (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km², under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas.

  8. The Urban Food-Water Nexus: Modeling Water Footprints of Urban Agriculture using CityCrop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tooke, T. R.; Lathuilliere, M. J.; Coops, N. C.; Johnson, M. S.

    2014-12-01

    Urban agriculture provides a potential contribution towards more sustainable food production and mitigating some of the human impacts that accompany volatility in regional and global food supply. When considering the capacity of urban landscapes to produce food products, the impact of urban water demand required for food production in cities is often neglected. Urban agricultural studies also tend to be undertaken at broad spatial scales, overlooking the heterogeneity of urban form that exerts an extreme influence on the urban energy balance. As a result, urban planning and management practitioners require, but often do not have, spatially explicit and detailed information to support informed urban agricultural policy, especially as it relates to potential conflicts with sustainability goals targeting water-use. In this research we introduce a new model, CityCrop, a hybrid evapotranspiration-plant growth model that incorporates detailed digital representations of the urban surface and biophysical impacts of the built environment and urban trees to account for the daily variations in net surface radiation. The model enables very fine-scale (sub-meter) estimates of water footprints of potential urban agricultural production. Results of the model are demonstrated for an area in the City of Vancouver, Canada and compared to aspatial model estimates, demonstrating the unique considerations and sensitivities for current and future water footprints of urban agriculture and the implications for urban water planning and policy.

  9. The Philippines: integrated planning for balanced urban growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-12-01

    During the past 80 years, the proportion of the Philippine population living in urban areas has nearly tripled, from 13% at the beginning of the 20th century to 36% in 1980. The number of people living in urban areas multipled 17-fold over this period. Currently, an estimated 17 million people live in urban areas, and this number is expected to reach 30 million by the year 2000. Migration from rural areas has been an important component of urban growth, but it has not been the principal one. Natural increase accounted for 54% of total urban growth in the 1960s and 1970s. A combination of reclassification and migration accounted for the rest. Big cities did not grow as rapidly as small cities, since their growth was generated largely by urban inmigration. Small cities tended to grow faster due to more natural increase than to inmigration. Philippine urbanization has been marked by increasing primacy. Metropolitan Manila, the largest city, has more than quadrupled in size since 1950. The phenomenon of primacy has been the cumulative consequence of historical, demographic, political, and socioeconomic factors. It may also have resulted from growth policies which unintentionally and indirectly favored the premier city. For national planners, the issue of urbanization in the Philippines is closely intertwined with the country's development objectives, particularly those of reducing poverty and attaining a more equitable distribution of income and wealth. The integration of population growth and distribution trends into the planning process is very important. Efforts to actively advocate this approach at various planning levels have been initiated. More must be learned about population and development dynamics, and planning capabilities at all levels must be improved.

  10. Developing a cellular automata model of urban growth to inform spatial policy for flood mitigation : A case study in Kampala, Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Molina, Eduardo; Sliuzas, R.V.; Flacke, J.; Jetten, V.G.

    2017-01-01

    Urban growth may intensify local flooding problems. Understanding the spatially explicit flood consequences of possible future land cover patterns contributes to inform policy for mitigating these impacts. A cellular automata model has been coupled with the openLISEM integrated flood modeling tool

  11. The Impact of Urban Growth and Climate Change on Heat Stress in an Australian City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, S.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Thatcher, M. J.; Salazar, A.; Watson, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Over half of the world's population lives in urban areas. Most people will therefore be exposed to climate change in an urban environment. One of the climate risks facing urban residents is heat stress, which can lead to illness and death. Urban residents are at increased risk of heat stress due to the urban heat island effect. The urban heat island is a modification of the urban environment and increases temperatures on average by 2°C, though the increase can be much higher, up to 8°C when wind speeds and cloud cover are low. The urban heat island is also expected to increase in the future due to urban growth and intensification, further exacerbating urban heat stress. Climate change alters the urban heat island due to changes in weather (wind speed and cloudiness) and evapotranspiration. Future urban heat stress will therefore be affected by urban growth and climate change. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of urban growth and climate change on the urban heat island and heat stress in Brisbane, Australia. We used CCAM, the conformal cubic atmospheric model developed by the CSIRO, to examine temperatures in Brisbane using scenarios of urban growth and climate change. We downscaled the urban climate using CCAM, based on bias corrected Sea Surface Temperatures from the ACCESS1.0 projection of future climate. We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the periods 1990 - 2000, 2049 - 2060 and 2089 - 2090 with current land use and an urban growth scenario. The present day climatology was verified using weather station data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We compared the urban heat island of the present day with the urban heat island with climate change to determine if climate change altered the heat island. We also calculated heat stress using wet-bulb globe temperature and apparent temperature for the climate change and base case scenarios. We found the urban growth scenario increased present day temperatures by 0.5°C in the

  12. MODELING URBAN DYNAMICS USING RANDOM FOREST: IMPLEMENTING ROC AND TOC FOR MODEL EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ahmadlou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The importance of spatial accuracy of land use/cover change maps necessitates the use of high performance models. To reach this goal, calibrating machine learning (ML approaches to model land use/cover conversions have received increasing interest among the scholars. This originates from the strength of these techniques as they powerfully account for the complex relationships underlying urban dynamics. Compared to other ML techniques, random forest has rarely been used for modeling urban growth. This paper, drawing on information from the multi-temporal Landsat satellite images of 1985, 2000 and 2015, calibrates a random forest regression (RFR model to quantify the variable importance and simulation of urban change spatial patterns. The results and performance of RFR model were evaluated using two complementary tools, relative operating characteristics (ROC and total operating characteristics (TOC, by overlaying the map of observed change and the modeled suitability map for land use change (error map. The suitability map produced by RFR model showed 82.48% area under curve for the ROC model which indicates a very good performance and highlights its appropriateness for simulating urban growth.

  13. The Rapid Urban Growth Triad: A New Conceptual Framework for Examining the Urban Transition in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle Farrell

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Although the urban transition is a universal event that unfolds in all countries, the determinants, patterns, and outcomes do not necessarily follow a uniform process. With the urban transition being basically completed in developed countries around the turn of the 21st century, the growth of cities today is almost entirely confined to developing countries. Still, much of our conceptual understanding of this process is derived from earlier accounts, with definitions rooted in a historical context. This has resulted in common misconceptions such as a tendency to view the growth of cities primarily as an outcome of rural to urban migration, neglecting the growing contributions of urban natural population increase and reclassification of rural areas. A tendency to treat the components of urban growth in isolation has created a rift within the urban studies discourse, preventing any real theorization of their combined impacts and the interplay among them. Applying a systems thinking approach, this paper introduces a multidisciplinary framework for conceptualizing rapid urban growth in developing countries. The framework offers explanatory power to previously neglected components of urban growth and serves as a diagnostic for examining the urban transition—ultimately revealing new policy levers for managing it in a sustainable way.

  14. Identifying the Risk Areas and Urban Growth by ArcGIS-Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Hamdy

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abouelreesh is one of the most at risk areas in Aswan, Egypt, which suffers from storms, poor drainage, and flash flooding. These phenomena affect the urban areas and cause a lot of damage to buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, the potential for the further realization of dangerous situations increased when the urban areas of Abouelreesh extended towards the risk areas. In an effort to ameliorate the danger, two key issues for urban growth management were studied, namely: (i estimations regarding the pace of urban sprawl, and (ii the identification of urban areas located in regions that would be affected by flash floods. Analyzing these phenomena require a lot of data in order to obtain good results, but in our case, the official data or field data was limited so we tried to obtain it by accessing two kinds of free sources of satellite data. First, we used Arc GIS tools to analyze (digital elevation model (DEM files in order to study the watershed and better identify the risk area. Second, we studied historical imagery in Google Earth to determine the age of each urban block. The urban growth rate in the risk areas had risen to 63.31% in 2001. Urban growth in the case study area had been influenced by house sizes, because most people were looking to live in bigger houses. The aforementioned problem can be observed by considering the increasing average house sizes from 2001 until 2013, where, especially in risky areas, the average of house sizes had grown from 223 m2 in 2001 to 318 m2 in 2013. The findings from this study would be useful to urban planners and government officials in helping them to make informed decisions on urban development to benefit the community, especially those living in areas at risk from flash flooding from heavy rain events.

  15. Learning from urban growth management in the Pacific Northwest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    2010-01-01

    The development of contemporary urban growth management in the Northwest United States began in the 1970s. The major tool is the implementation of urban containment boundaries, fostering growth within and limiting it outside the boundary. Additionally a set of policies reaching from densification...... Washington and Oregon as e.g. the municipalities in Denmark have strong control options in planning. However, especially the metropolitan co-operation and co-ordination instruments can certainly contribute to the discussion on urban growth management in Denmark and elsewhere....

  16. Urban Land Allocation Model of Territorial Expansion by Urban Planners and Housing Developers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Cantergiani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Agent-based models have recently been proposed as potential tools to support urban planning due to their capacity to simulate complex behaviors. The complexity of the urban development process arises from strong interactions between various components driven by different agents. AMEBA (agent-based model for the evolution of urban areas is a prototype of an exploratory, spatial, agent-based model that considers the main agents involved in the urban development process (urban planners, developers, and the population. The prototype consists of three submodels (one for each agent that have been developed independently and present the same structure. However, the first two are based on a land use allocation technique, and the last one, as well as their integration, on an agent-based model approach. This paper describes the conceptualization and performance of the submodels that represent urban planners and developers, who are the agents responsible for officially launching expansion and defining the spatial allocation of urban land. The prototype was tested in the Corredor del Henares (an urban–industrial area in the Region of Madrid, Spain, but is sufficiently flexible to be adapted to other study areas and generate different future urban growth contexts. The results demonstrate that this combination of agents can be used to explore various policy-relevant research questions, including urban system interactions in adverse political and socioeconomic scenarios.

  17. Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

    2014-09-01

    Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

  18. Using GIS for Developing Sustainable Urban Growth Case Kyrenia Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, C.; Akçit, N.

    2018-03-01

    It is critical to develop urban layers for analysis sustainable urban development possibilities within planning process. Kyrenia Region has many physical, environmental or economic issues that may danger the growth possibilities in sustainable manner. From this point, this study uses different spatial layers such as slope, distance to roads, distance to central zone, vegetation, soil productivity, environmental protection zones, distance to open/green space, distance to education for supporting sustainable urban growth policies and define suitable areas for urban development within this perspective. The study tries to convert sustainable urban growth policies such as; compact growth, environmental protection, equal accessibility to basic services; into spatial layers and establish proper framework for multi criteria evaluation in Kyrenia Region within using geographical information systems. It shows suitability values for Kyrenia region and constraints zones at final section. It clearly presents the suitable areas for the sustainable urbanization and also unsuitable or risky areas for reducing the possible disasters and may happen in the future.

  19. Prediction of future urban growth using CA-Markov for urban sustainability planning of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achmad, A.; Irwansyah, M.; Ramli, I.

    2018-03-01

    Banda Aceh experienced rapid growth, both physically, socially, and economically, after the Tsunami that devastated it the end of December in 2004. Hence policy controls are needed to direct the pattern of urban growth to achieve sustainable development for the future. The purpose of this paper is to generate a growth model for Banda Aceh using the CA-Markov process. By knowing the changes in land use between 2005 and 2009 from the results of previous research, simulations for 2013, 2019 and 2029 using the application of Idrisi@Selva. CA-Markov models were prepared to determine the quantity of changes. The simulation results showed that, after the Tsunami, the City of Banda Aceh tended to grow towards the coast. For the control of the LUC, the Banda Aceh City government needs to prepare comprehensive and detailed maps and inventory of LUC for the city to provide basic data and information needed for monitoring and evaluation that can be done effectively and efficiently. An institution for monitoring and evaluation of the urban landscape and the LUC should be formed immediately. This institution could consist of representatives from government, academia, community leaders, the private sector and other experts. The findings from this study can be used to start the monitoring and evaluation of future urban growth. Especially for the coastal areas, the local government should immediately prepare special spatial coastal area plans to control growth in those areas and to ensure that the economic benefits from disaster mitigation and coastal protection are preserved. For the development of the city in the future, it is necessary to achieve a balance between economic development, and social welfare with environmental protection and disaster mitigation. iIt will become a big challenge to achieve sustainable development for the future.

  20. A study of dynamic econometric relationship between urbanization and service industries growth in china

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Congjun Cheng

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The paper is going to analyze that there are dynamic quantitative relationships between Chinese urbanization and service industry.Design/methodology/approach: According to the index number of value-added of service industry and town population/ total population ratio during the year of 1978 to 2012 in China, the paper is designed with models which are analyzed by ADF test, co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test, finally get the conclusion.Findings: The paper achieves the two conclusions, one is that urbanization is the important power of service industry’s growth; the other is that the level of urbanization improves the level of service industry recently.Originality/value: Chinese urbanization and service industry have close relationship, and they also have dynamic changes. The paper studies their dynamic changes through collecting a lot of data from the year 1978 to 2010 and developing models to make quantitative analysis, for example, tables and quotations in the paper are the best proof. At last, the paper also puts forward some suggestions after get the conclusion that Chinese urbanization is the motive power to the growth of service industry.

  1. Simulating urban growth by emphasis on connective routes network (case study: Bojnourd city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Saadat Novin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Development of urban construction and ever-increasing growth of population lead to landuse changes especially in agricultural lands, which play an important role in providing human food. According to this issue, a proper landuse planning is required to protecting and preserving the valuable agricultural lands and environment, in today’s world. The prediction of urban growth can help in understanding the potential impacts on a region’s water resource, economy and people. One of the effective parameters in development of cities is connective routes network and their different types and qualities that play an important role in decreasing or increasing the growth of the city. On the other hand, the type of the connective routes network is an important factor for the speed and quality of development. In this paper, two different scenarios were used to simulate landuse changes and analyzing their results. In first scenario, modeling is based on the effective parameters in urban growth without classification of connective routes network. In the second scenario, effective parameters in urban growth were considered and connective routes were classified in 6 different classes with different weights in order to examine their effect on urban development. Simulation of landuse has been carried out for 2020–2050. The results clearly showed the effect of the connective routes network classification in output maps so that the effect of the first and second main routes network in development, is conspicuous.

  2. Rapid Urban Growth and Land Use Patterns in Doha, Qatar: Opportunities for Sustainability?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivek Shandas

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Amidst chaotic growth of Asian cities, the expansion of urban infrastructure in the Middle East's Gulf region is arguably outpacing any other region on the planet. Yet we have a limited understanding of the types of urban form or the extent to which this rapid urbanization is giving rise to sustainable patterns of growth. We ask, what is the pace and character of urban growth in one Middle East city, Doha, Qatar. By using remotely sensed imagery from 1987 to 2013, we examined the pace, quality, and characteristics of urban growth. We further use the results to create a typology of urban growth that integrates historical and spatial dimensions for describing the qualitative aspects of growth and its implications on regional landscapes. Our results suggest that Doha is creating development patterns similar to many Western cities, and that planners may need to consider whether the emerging urban form offers opportunities for more sustainable growth in the future.

  3. Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

    2018-05-01

    Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees ( Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

  4. Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

    2017-12-01

    Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees (Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

  5. Urban Sprawl Analysis and Modeling in Asmara, Eritrea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mussie G. Tewolde

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The extension of urban perimeter markedly cuts available productive land. Hence, studies in urban sprawl analysis and modeling play an important role to ensure sustainable urban development. The urbanization pattern of the Greater Asmara Area (GAA, the capital of Eritrea, was studied. Satellite images and geospatial tools were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal urban landuse changes. Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA, Landuse Cover Change (LUCC analysis and urban sprawl analysis using Shannon Entropy were carried out. The Land Change Modeler (LCM was used to develop a model of urban growth. The Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network was employed to model the transition potential maps with an accuracy of 85.9% and these were used as an input for the ‘actual’ urban modeling with Markov chains. Model validation was assessed and a scenario of urban land use change of the GAA up to year 2020 was presented. The result of the study indicated that the built-up area has tripled in size (increased by 4,441 ha between 1989 and 2009. Specially, after year 2000 urban sprawl in GAA caused large scale encroachment on high potential agricultural lands and plantation cover. The scenario for year 2020 shows an increase of the built-up areas by 1,484 ha (25% which may cause further loss. The study indicated that the land allocation system in the GAA overrode the landuse plan, which caused the loss of agricultural land and plantation cover. The recommended policy options might support decision makers to resolve further loss of agricultural land and plantation cover and to achieve sustainable urban development planning in the GAA.

  6. Urban growth in American cities : glimpses of U.S. urbanization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auch, Roger; Taylor, Janis; Acevedo, William

    2004-01-01

    The Earth's surface is changing rapidly. Changes are local, regional, national, and even global in scope. Some changes have natural causes, such as earthquakes or drought. Other changes, such as urban expansion, agricultural intensification, resource extraction, and water resources development, are examples of human-induced change that have significant impact upon people, the economy, and resources. The consequences that result from these changes are often dramatic and widespread (Buchanan, Acevedo, and Zirbes, 2002)It is the role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide useful and relevant scientific information both to the agencies within the Department of the Interior and to the Nation in general. In an effort to comply with this task, USGS scientists are assessing the status of, and the trends in, the Nation's land surface. This assessment provides useful information for regional and national land use decisionmaking. This knowledge can be used to deal with issues of significance to the Nation, such as quality-of-life, ecology of urban environments, ecosystem health, ecological integrity, water quality and quantity concerns, resource availability, vulnerability to natural hazards, safeguards to human health, air and land quality, and accessibility to scientific information. Results of these assessments can also be analyzed to reveal rates and trends in land use change. Results from urban growth studies provide a firm foundation for continuing research that explores the consequences of human modification of the landscape.The USGS seeks to illustrate and explain the spatial history of urban growth and corresponding land use change. Scientists are studying urban environments from a regional perspective and a time scale of decades to measure the changes that have occurred in order to help understand the impact of anticipated changes in the future.Within this booklet are pairs of images of selected urbanized regions from across the Nation. These image pairs

  7. Assessing the Effect of Spatial Proximity on Urban Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Gomes

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC reacts to demographic pressures, economic trends, or improved transport networks. Urban growth with implications on LUCC patterns can be measured using a diversity of methods. Our study derives from Tobler’s first law of geography: ‘everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant ones’. We identified and measured the influence of neighbouring distance on urban growth from the edge of existing urban areas. For that, we have developed a method, built using the NetLogo software tool, which we called Land-use chAnge and Neighbouring Distance (LAND. We selected Torres Vedras (Portugal to conduct our case study due to its increasing urban development in the past few years. The periods of analysis were 1995–2010, 1995–2007, and 2007–2010. The results have shown the influence and the effect of strong spatial correlation between the proximity of existing artificial surfaces and the emergence of new ones. The understanding of the patterns of urban growth is helpful to plan forward land developments. This method can be used to write guidelines for decision makers to monitor urban expansion and define spatial planning priorities.

  8. Urbanisation, urban growth and planning in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    pressure. Growth management strategies are necessary to secure future balanced and sustainable development throughout the whole urban region. The analysis of urbanisation and urban growth in peri-urban areas is at the core of this study, including socio-demographic and functional dynamics, land use impacts...... and options for spatial planning. The main case was the metropolitan region of Copenhagen, Denmark. Other cases from Europe and the USA were used as reference studies. The methods included quantitative analyses of register and land use data as well as general case study work to investigate options for spatial...... planning. The study shows that, while the most visible impacts of land use changes can be found at the close urban fringe, many other dynamics have a much longer reach into the rural-urban region. In the Copenhagen metropolitan region, we can observe migration to peri-urban areas and to the urban core...

  9. Urban sprawl and growth management - drivers, impacts and responses in selected European and US cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2016-01-01

    Urban growth management has become a common term to circumscribe strategies and tools to regulate urban land use in metropolitan areas. It is particularly used to counteract negative impacts of urban sprawl but also to frame future urban development. We discuss recent challenges of urban growth...... in 6 European and 2 US American city-regions. The paper compares the urban development focusing on a quantification of drivers and effects of urban growth and a qualitative analysis of the applied urban growth management tools. We build our analysis on findings from the EU-FP6 project PLUREL...

  10. Do motorways shape urban growth?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick; Hovgesen, Henrik Harder

    2005-01-01

    results suggest that the motorway most markedly influences the location of non-residential building activities within the city – in favour of locations near the entrance points to/from the motorway network. The development can be explained in part by municipal planning, which in some instances has opened......The paper is an offspring from the Research project Town, Road and Landscape that aims to assess the effect of the Danish motorway network (specifically the last 20 years) on urban growth and interaction patterns. As one of the main interests of the project is the changing urban form...... and the changing character of the roadscape, the impact of the motorway is in part analysed with micro level data, spatial statistics and GIS – to allowing mapping of changing development trends in motorway corridors. The paper presents analysis of the impact of motorway openings on urban form in two Danish...

  11. Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.

  12. Remote Sensing Characterization of the Urban Landscape for Improvement of Air Quality Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Khan, Maudood

    2005-01-01

    The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban growth projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, in moderating ground-level ozone and air temperature, compared to "business as usual" simulations in which heat island mitigation strategies are not applied. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low densityhburban development as compared with USGS 1 km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for fiture scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the state Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these

  13. Remote sensing of impervious surface growth: A framework for quantifying urban expansion and re-densification mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahtahmassebi, Amir Reza; Song, Jie; Zheng, Qing; Blackburn, George Alan; Wang, Ke; Huang, Ling Yan; Pan, Yi; Moore, Nathan; Shahtahmassebi, Golnaz; Sadrabadi Haghighi, Reza; Deng, Jing Song

    2016-04-01

    A substantial body of literature has accumulated on the topic of using remotely sensed data to map impervious surfaces which are widely recognized as an important indicator of urbanization. However, the remote sensing of impervious surface growth has not been successfully addressed. This study proposes a new framework for deriving and summarizing urban expansion and re-densification using time series of impervious surface fractions (ISFs) derived from remotely sensed imagery. This approach integrates multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA), analysis of regression residuals, spatial statistics (Getis_Ord) and urban growth theories; hence, the framework is abbreviated as MRGU. The performance of MRGU was compared with commonly used change detection techniques in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the approach. The results suggested that the ISF regression residuals were optimal for detecting impervious surface changes while Getis_Ord was effective for mapping hotspot regions in the regression residuals image. Moreover, the MRGU outputs agreed with the mechanisms proposed in several existing urban growth theories, but importantly the outputs enable the refinement of such models by explicitly accounting for the spatial distribution of both expansion and re-densification mechanisms. Based on Landsat data, the MRGU is somewhat restricted in its ability to measure re-densification in the urban core but this may be improved through the use of higher spatial resolution satellite imagery. The paper ends with an assessment of the present gaps in remote sensing of impervious surface growth and suggests some solutions. The application of impervious surface fractions in urban change detection is a stimulating new research idea which is driving future research with new models and algorithms.

  14. Six decades of urban growth using remote sensing and GIS in the city of Bandar Abbas, Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dadras, Mohsen; Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

    2014-01-01

    Bandar Abbas is the capital city of Hormozgan province, is the south of Iran. The city has witnessed rapid growth in the last three decades, mostly because of its economic, commercial and social attractions. However, forms and operations of urban sprawl may vary in important manners according to determine geographical and historical characteristics, and these difference need to be reviewed with creation geodatabase of spatial and attribute data during past periods until now of urban formation and expansion. We implemented this research to understand Bandar Abbas city growth dynamic during last six decades using aerial photo, Remote Sensing (RS) data and Geographical Information System (GIS), to investigate its sprawl for the during six decades and to prepare a basis for urban planning and management. We calibrated it with geospatial data derived from a time series of aerial photos and satellite images. Treated remote sensing data covering the six decades were used to calculate land use/cover and urban growth. The application of classification techniques to the remote sensing data enabled the extraction of eight main types of land use: agricultural, barren, coastal, hole, river, rocky hill, urban, and built-up. Growth was calculated through Shannon's entropy model. The urbanized area increased from 403.77 ha to 4959.59 ha from 1956 to 2012, a rate almost five times that of the population growth observed in the same period. Such findings make the case of Bandar Abbas important for several reasons. First, Bandar Abbas has undergone a rapid increase in urban sprawl according to urban growth indicators. Second, the urban sprawl quickly grew from medium-sized to large a process considered inappropriate according to physical and structural limitations on urban growth. Lastly, the excessive extension of the built-up boundary in the city resulted in the loss of coastal land and open space, two main sources of tourist attraction and economic sustainable development

  15. Quantifying urban growth patterns in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes and time series spatial metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepczyk, Christopher A.; Miura, Tomoaki; Fox, Jefferson M.

    2018-01-01

    Urbanization has been driven by various social, economic, and political factors around the world for centuries. Because urbanization continues unabated in many places, it is crucial to understand patterns of urbanization and their potential ecological and environmental impacts. Given this need, the objectives of our study were to quantify urban growth rates, growth modes, and resultant changes in the landscape pattern of urbanization in Hanoi, Vietnam from 1993 to 2010 and to evaluate the extent to which the process of urban growth in Hanoi conformed to the diffusion-coalescence theory. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamics of the built-up land in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes, spatial metrics, and a gradient approach. Urbanization was most pronounced in the periods of 2001–2006 and 2006–2010 at a distance of 10 to 35 km around the urban center. Over the 17 year period urban expansion in Hanoi was dominated by infilling and edge expansion growth modes. Our findings support the diffusion-coalescence theory of urbanization. The shift of the urban growth areas over time and the dynamic nature of the spatial metrics revealed important information about our understanding of the urban growth process and cycle. Furthermore, our findings can be used to evaluate urban planning policies and aid in urbanization issues in rapidly urbanizing countries. PMID:29734346

  16. Quantifying urban growth patterns in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes and time series spatial metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Duong H; Lepczyk, Christopher A; Miura, Tomoaki; Fox, Jefferson M

    2018-01-01

    Urbanization has been driven by various social, economic, and political factors around the world for centuries. Because urbanization continues unabated in many places, it is crucial to understand patterns of urbanization and their potential ecological and environmental impacts. Given this need, the objectives of our study were to quantify urban growth rates, growth modes, and resultant changes in the landscape pattern of urbanization in Hanoi, Vietnam from 1993 to 2010 and to evaluate the extent to which the process of urban growth in Hanoi conformed to the diffusion-coalescence theory. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamics of the built-up land in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes, spatial metrics, and a gradient approach. Urbanization was most pronounced in the periods of 2001-2006 and 2006-2010 at a distance of 10 to 35 km around the urban center. Over the 17 year period urban expansion in Hanoi was dominated by infilling and edge expansion growth modes. Our findings support the diffusion-coalescence theory of urbanization. The shift of the urban growth areas over time and the dynamic nature of the spatial metrics revealed important information about our understanding of the urban growth process and cycle. Furthermore, our findings can be used to evaluate urban planning policies and aid in urbanization issues in rapidly urbanizing countries.

  17. Modeling urban expansion in Yangon, Myanmar using Landsat time-series and stereo GeoEye Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sritarapipat, Tanakorn; Takeuchi, Wataru

    2016-06-01

    This research proposed a methodology to model the urban expansion based dynamic statistical model using Landsat and GeoEye Images. Landsat Time-Series from 1978 to 2010 have been applied to extract land covers from the past to the present. Stereo GeoEye Images have been employed to obtain the height of the building. The class translation was obtained by observing land cover from the past to the present. The height of the building can be used to detect the center of the urban area (mainly commercial area). It was assumed that the class translation and the distance of multi-centers of the urban area also the distance of the roads affect the urban growth. The urban expansion model based on the dynamic statistical model was defined to refer to three factors; (1) the class translation, (2) the distance of the multicenters of the urban areas, and (3) the distance from the roads. Estimation and prediction of urban expansion by using our model were formulated and expressed in this research. The experimental area was set up in Yangon, Myanmar. Since it is the major of country's economic with more than five million population and the urban areas have rapidly increased. The experimental results indicated that our model of urban expansion estimated urban growth in both estimation and prediction steps in efficiency.

  18. Urban vegetation and thermal patterns following city growth in different socio-economic contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dronova, I.; Clinton, N.; Yang, J.; Radke, J.; Marx, S. S.; Gong, P.

    2015-12-01

    Urban expansion accompanied by losses of vegetated spaces and their ecological services raises significant concerns about the future of humans in metropolitan "habitats". Despite recent growth of urban studies globally, it is still not well understood how environmental effects of urbanization vary with the rate and socioeconomic context of development. Our study hypothesized that with urban development, spatial patterns of surface thermal properties and green plant cover would shift towards higher occurrence of relatively warmer and less vegetated spaces such as built-up areas, followed by losses of greener and cooler areas such as urban forests, and that these shifts would be more pronounced with higher rate of economic and/or population growth. To test these ideas, we compared 1992-2011 changes in remotely sensed patterns of green vegetation and surface temperature in three example cities that experienced peripheral growth under contrasting socio-economic context - Dallas, TX, USA, Beijing, China and Kyiv, Ukraine. To assess their transformation, we proposed a metric of thermal-vegetation angle (TVA) estimated from per-pixel proxies of vegetation greenness and surface temperature from Landsat satellite data and examined changes in TVA distributions within each city's core and two decadal zones of peripheral sprawl delineated from nighttime satellite data. We found that higher economic and population growth were coupled with more pronounced changes in TVA distributions, and more urbanized zones often exhibited higher frequencies of warmer, less green than average TVA values with novel patterns such as "cooler" clusters of building shadows. Although greener and cooler spaces generally diminished with development, they remained relatively prevalent in low-density residential areas of Dallas and peripheral zones of Kyiv with exurban subsistence farming. Overall, results indicate that the effects of modified green space and thermal patterns within growing cities

  19. Urban Ecology: Patterns of Population Growth and Ecological Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne C. Zipperer; Steward T.A. Pickett

    2012-01-01

    Currently, over 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, this estimate is expected to be 70%. This urban growth, however, is not uniformly distributed around the world. The majority of it will occur in developing nations and create megacities whose populations exceed at least 10 million people. Not all urban areas, however, are growing. Some are...

  20. Decades of urban growth and development on the Asian megadeltas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, Christopher; Sousa, Daniel; Yetman, Gregory; Elvidge, Christopher; MacManus, Kytt

    2018-06-01

    The current and ongoing expansion of urban areas worldwide represents the largest mass migration in human history. It is well known that the world's coastal zones are associated with large and growing concentrations of population, urban development and economic activity. Among coastal environments, deltas have long been recognized for both benefits and hazards. This is particularly true on the Asian megadeltas, where the majority of the world's deltaic populations reside. Current trends in urban migration, combined with demographic momentum suggest that the already large populations on the Asian megadeltas will continue to grow. In this study, we combine recently released gridded population density (circa 2010) with a newly developed night light change product (1992 to 2012) and a digital elevation model to quantify the spatial distribution of population and development on the nine Asian megadeltas. Bivariate distributions of population as functions of elevation and coastal proximity quantify potential exposure of deltaic populations to flood and coastal hazards. Comparison of these distributions for the Asian megadeltas show very different patterns of habitation with peak population elevations ranging from 2 to 11 m above sea level over a wide range of coastal proximities. Over all nine megadeltas, over 174 million people reside below a peak population elevation of 7 m. Changes in the spatial extent of anthropogenic night light from 1992 to 2012 show widely varying extents and changes of lighted urban development. All of the deltas except the Indus show the greatest increases in night light brightness occurring at elevations <10 m. At global and continental scales, growth of settlements of all sizes takes the form of evolving spatial networks of development. Spatial networks of lighted urban development in Asia show power law scaling properties consistent with other continents, but much higher rates of growth. The three largest networks of development in China all

  1. Analysis of Urban Growth in Edwardsville Illinois Using Remote Sensing and Population Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onuoha, Hilda U.

    Rapid urbanization is one of the many critical, global issues. This very significant social and economic phenomenon has brought about much debate in the past twenty years and has become a very important policy issue. Understanding its dynamics and patterns is important to develop appropriate policies and make more informed planning decisions. Many dimensions to the urban land growth have been identified in related literature including drivers, relationship with other factors like population, impacts, and methods of measurement. In this study, urban growth in the Edwardsville area (composed of Edwardsville and Glen Carbon, Illinois) is analyzed spatio-temporally using remote sensing and population change from 1990 to 2015. The objectives of this study are (a) identifying the major land use changes in the Edwardsville area from 1990 to 2015, (b) analyzing the rate of urban growth and its relationship to population change in the area from 1990 to 2015, (c) identifying the general pattern and direction of urban growth in the study area. Using multi-temporal satellite images to classify and derive changes in land cover classes during the study period, results showed that the land cover classes with major changes are the urban/built-up land and agricultural/grassland, with a steady increase in the former and steady decrease in the later. Results also show the highest rate of increase in urban land was between 2000 and 2010. In comparison to population, the both show increase over the study years but urban land shows a higher rate of increase indicating dispersion. To analyze urban growth pattern in the area, the study area was divided into three zones: NE, SE, and W. The SE zone showed the highest amount of the growth and from the results, the infill type of growth was inferred.

  2. Urban Growth in a Fragmented Landscape: Estimating the Relationship between Landscape Pattern and Urban Land Use Change in Germany, 2000-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, R.

    2013-12-01

    One of the highest priorities in the conservation and management of biodiversity, natural resources and other vital ecosystem services is the assessment of the mechanisms that drive urban land use change. Using key landscape indicators, this study addresses why urban land increased 6 percent overall in Germany from 2000-2006. Building on regional science and economic geography research, I develop a model of landscape change that integrates remotely sensed and other geospatial data, and socioeconomic data in a spatial autoregressive model to explain the variance in urban land use change observed in German kreise (counties) over the past decade. The results reveal three key landscape mechanisms that drive urban land use change across Germany, aligning with those observed in US studies: (1) the level of fragmentation, (2) the share of designated protected areas, and (3) the share of prime soil. First, as fragmentation of once continuous habitats in the landscape increases, extensive urban growth follows. Second, designated protected areas have the perverse effect of hastening urbanization in surrounding areas. Third, greater shares of prime, productive soil experienced less urban land take over the 6 year period, an effect that is stronger in the former East Germany, where the agricultural sector remains large. The results suggest that policy makers concentrate their conservation efforts on preexisting fragmented land with high shares of protected areas in Germany to effectively stem urban land take. Given that comparative studies of land use change are vital for the scientific community to grasp the wider global process of urbanization and coincident ecological impacts, the methodology employed here is easily exportable to land cover and land use research programs in other fields and geographic areas. Key words: Urban land use change, Ecosystem services, Landscape fragmentation, Remote sensing, Spatial regression models, GermanyOLS and Spatial Autoregressive Model

  3. Tracking urban activity growth globally with big location data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daggitt, Matthew L; Noulas, Anastasios; Shaw, Blake; Mascolo, Cecilia

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, the world has experienced rates of urban growth unparalleled in any other period of history and this growth is shaping the environment in which an increasing proportion of us live. In this paper, we use a longitudinal dataset from Foursquare, a location-based social network, to analyse urban growth across 100 major cities worldwide. Initially, we explore how urban growth differs in cities across the world. We show that there exists a strong spatial correlation, with nearby pairs of cities more likely to share similar growth profiles than remote pairs of cities. Subsequently, we investigate how growth varies inside cities and demonstrate that, given the existing local density of places, higher-than-expected growth is highly localized while lower-than-expected growth is more diffuse. Finally, we attempt to use the dataset to characterize competition between new and existing venues. By defining a measure based on the change in throughput of a venue before and after the opening of a new nearby venue, we demonstrate which venue types have a positive effect on venues of the same type and which have a negative effect. For example, our analysis confirms the hypothesis that there is large degree of competition between bookstores, in the sense that existing bookstores normally experience a notable drop in footfall after a new bookstore opens nearby. Other place types, such as museums, are shown to have a cooperative effect and their presence fosters higher traffic volumes to nearby places of the same type.

  4. Urban Teens: Trauma, Posttraumatic Growth, and Emotional Distress among Female Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ickovics, Jeanette R.; Meade, Christina S.; Kershaw, Trace S.; Milan, Stephanie; Lewis, Jessica B.; Ethier, Kathleen A.

    2006-01-01

    Urban teens face many traumas, with implications for potential growth and distress. This study examined traumatic events, posttraumatic growth, and emotional distress over 18 months among urban adolescent girls (N = 328). Objectives were to (a) describe types of traumatic events, (b) determine how type and timing of events relate to profiles of…

  5. Monitoring urban growth around Rustenburg, South Africa, using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nale Mudau

    spatial growth of Rustenburg city in South Africa from 2007 to 2012 using ... Many studies point out that population growth in urban areas is a result of ... maximum likelihood, minimum distance, spectral unmixing and neutral networks. ..... Bands (Case Study: Arid Region of Iran)', American-Eurasian Journal of Agricultural.

  6. Strategies for Low-Carbon Green Growth and Urban Management in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jichung Yang

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: National policies and strategies for low-carbon green growth in Korea are reviewed in this study. Providing standards and guidelines for urban comprehensive planning and management plans is necessary so that the series of plans can deal with possible effects from climate changes. Urban planning guidelines for management and improvements to achieve low carbon green growth were set up and implemented, focusing on institutional and regulatory foundations. These deal with climate change influences on urban planning, reduction of green house gas emissions and elevation of energy efficiency based on plans of land use units. In the case of Seoul city, transit-oriented compact development, public transportation-oriented structure, green space expansion, and pleasant living spaces are implemented in relation to urban structure and land use. We should suggest systematic and comprehensive countermeasures against greenhouse gas emissions and climate changes in terms of spatial structure, transportation systems, natural resource conservation, environment management, energy and open spaces. For the Seoul mega-city, plans show the capabilities of the policy department including many policy tools. Reflecting smart city, ubiquitous city, and U-Eco city concepts and human behavior, we should move towards increasing efficiency and maintaining sustainable economic growth. KEYWORDS: Low-carbon green growth, urban management, Korea, Seoul

  7. Assessments of urban growth in the Tampa Bay watershed using remote sensing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, G.; Crane, M.

    2005-01-01

    Urban development has expanded rapidly in the Tampa Bay area of west-central Florida over the past century. A major effect associated with this population trend is transformation of the landscape from natural cover types to increasingly impervious urban land. This research utilizes an innovative approach for mapping urban extent and its changes through determining impervious surfaces from Landsat satellite remote sensing data. By 2002, areas with subpixel impervious surface greater than 10% accounted for approximately 1800 km2, or 27 percent of the total watershed area. The impervious surface area increases approximately three-fold from 1991 to 2002. The resulting imperviousness data are used with a defined suite of geospatial data sets to simulate historical urban development and predict future urban and suburban extent, density, and growth patterns using SLEUTH model. Also examined is the increasingly important influence that urbanization and its associated imperviousness extent have on the individual drainage basins of the Tampa Bay watershed.

  8. Modelling the impact of sanitation, population growth and urbanization on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters—a case study for Bangladesh and India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, L.C.; Kraker, Dummy; Hofstra, N.; Kroeze, C.; Medema, G.J.

    2015-01-01

    Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a

  9. Modelling the impact of sanitation, population growth and urbanization on human emissions of cryptosporidium to surface waters : A case study for Bangladesh and India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, L.C.; Kraker, J.; Hofstra, N.; Kroeze, C.; Medema, G.

    2015-01-01

    Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a

  10. Exploring the patterns and evolution of self-organized urban street networks through modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rui, Yikang; Ban, Yifang; Wang, Jiechen; Haas, Jan

    2013-03-01

    As one of the most important subsystems in cities, urban street networks have recently been well studied by using the approach of complex networks. This paper proposes a growing model for self-organized urban street networks. The model involves a competition among new centers with different values of attraction radius and a local optimal principle of both geometrical and topological factors. We find that with the model growth, the local optimization in the connection process and appropriate probability for the loop construction well reflect the evolution strategy in real-world cities. Moreover, different values of attraction radius in centers competition process lead to morphological change in patterns including urban network, polycentric and monocentric structures. The model succeeds in reproducing a large diversity of road network patterns by varying parameters. The similarity between the properties of our model and empirical results implies that a simple universal growth mechanism exists in self-organized cities.

  11. Modelling dimensional growth of three street tree species in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The results could also be used in the process of modelling energy use reduction, air pollution uptake, rainfall interception, carbon sequestration and microclimate modification of urban forests such as those found in the City of Tshwane. Keywords: allometry; regression; size relationships; tree growth; urban forests. Southern ...

  12. Land Cover Change and Remote Sensing in the Classroom: An Exercise to Study Urban Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delahunty, Tina; Lewis-Gonzales, Sarah; Phelps, Jack; Sawicki, Ben; Roberts, Charles; Carpenter, Penny

    2012-01-01

    The processes and implications of urban growth are studied in a variety of disciplines as urban growth affects both the physical and human landscape. Remote sensing methods provide ways to visualize and mathematically represent urban growth; and resultant land cover change data enable both quantitative and qualitative analysis. This article helps…

  13. Urban forests for sustainable urban development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundara, Denny M.; Hartono, Djoko M.; Suganda, Emirhadi; Haeruman, S. Herman J.

    2017-11-01

    This paper explores the development of the urban forest in East Jakarta. By 2030 Jakarta area has a target of 30% green area covering 19,845 hectares, including urban forest covering an area of 4,631 hectares. In 2015, the city forest is only 646 hectares, while the city requires 3,985 hectares of new land Urban forest growth from year to year showed a marked decrease with increasing land area awoke to commercial functions, environmental conditions encourage the development of the city to become unsustainable. This research aims to support sustainable urban development and ecological balance through the revitalization of green areas and urban development. Analytical methods for urban forest area is calculated based on the amount of CO2 that comes from people, vehicles, and industrial. Urban spatial analysis based on satellite image data, using a GIS program is an analysis tool to determine the distribution and growth patterns of green areas. This paper uses a dynamic system model to simulate the conditions of the region against intervention to be performed on potential areas for development of urban forests. The result is a model urban forest area is integrated with a social and economic function to encourage the development of sustainable cities.

  14. Quantifying Impacts of Urban Growth Potential on Army Training Capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-12

    Capacity” ERDC/CERL TR-17-34 ii Abstract Building on previous studies of urban growth and population effects on U.S. military installations and...Bryan S. Green and the Director was Dr. David W. Pittman. ERDC/CERL TR-17-34 viii Unit Conversion Factors Multiply By To Obtain acres 4,046.873...combat team studies. CAA has developed an iterative process that builds on Military Value Anal- ysis (MVA) models that include a set of attributes that

  15. Fine-resolution Modeling of Urban-Energy Systems' Water Footprint in River Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    McManamay, R.; Surendran Nair, S.; Morton, A.; DeRolph, C.; Stewart, R.

    2015-12-01

    Characterizing the interplay between urbanization, energy production, and water resources is essential for ensuring sustainable population growth. In order to balance limited water supplies, competing users must account for their realized and virtual water footprint, i.e. the total direct and indirect amount of water used, respectively. Unfortunately, publicly reported US water use estimates are spatially coarse, temporally static, and completely ignore returns of water to rivers after use. These estimates are insufficient to account for the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of water budgets in urbanizing systems. Likewise, urbanizing areas are supported by competing sources of energy production, which also have heterogeneous water footprints. Hence, a fundamental challenge of planning for sustainable urban growth and decision-making across disparate policy sectors lies in characterizing inter-dependencies among urban systems, energy producers, and water resources. A modeling framework is presented that provides a novel approach to integrate urban-energy infrastructure into a spatial accounting network that accurately measures water footprints as changes in the quantity and quality of river flows. River networks (RNs), i.e. networks of branching tributaries nested within larger rivers, provide a spatial structure to measure water budgets by modeling hydrology and accounting for use and returns from urbanizing areas and energy producers. We quantify urban-energy water footprints for Atlanta, GA and Knoxville, TN (USA) based on changes in hydrology in RNs. Although water intakes providing supply to metropolitan areas were proximate to metropolitan areas, power plants contributing to energy demand in Knoxville and Atlanta, occurred 30 and 90km outside the metropolitan boundary, respectively. Direct water footprints from urban landcover primarily comprised smaller streams whereas indirect footprints from water supply reservoirs and energy producers included

  16. The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mingxing; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Weidong; Zhang, Wenzhong

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS) methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process.

  17. The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingxing Chen

    Full Text Available The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process.

  18. Projected Regional Climate in 2025 Due to Urban Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Messen, Dmitry

    2005-01-01

    By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent.

  19. Impact of vegetation growth on urban surface temperature distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buyadi, S N A; Mohd, W M N W; Misni, A

    2014-01-01

    Earlier studies have indicated that, the temperature distribution in the urban area is significantly warmer than its surrounding suburban areas. The process of urbanization has created urban heat island (UHI). As a city expands, trees are cut down to accommodate commercial development, industrial areas, roads, and suburban growth. Trees or green areas normally play a vital role in mitigating the UHI effects especially in regulating high temperature in saturated urban areas. This study attempts to assess the effects of vegetation growth on land surface temperature (LST) distribution in urban areas. An area within the City of Shah Alam, Selangor has been selected as the study area. Land use/land cover and LST maps of two different dates are generated from Landsat 5 TM images of the year 1991 and 2009. Only five major land cover classes are considered in this study. Mono-window algorithm is used to generate the LST maps. Landsat 5 TM images are also used to generate the NDVI maps. Results from this study have shown that there are significant land use changes within the study area. Although the conversion of green areas into residential and commercial areas significantly increase the LST, matured trees will help to mitigate the effects of UHI

  20. Modeling Impact of Urbanization in US Cities Using Simple Biosphere Model SiB2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ping; Bounoua, Lahouari; Thome, Kurtis; Wolfe, Robert

    2016-01-01

    We combine Landsat- and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based products, as well as climate drivers from Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) in a Simple Biosphere land surface model (SiB2) to assess the impact of urbanization in continental USA (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). More than 300 cities and their surrounding suburban and rural areas are defined in this study to characterize the impact of urbanization on surface climate including surface energy, carbon budget, and water balance. These analyses reveal an uneven impact of urbanization across the continent that should inform upon policy options for improving urban growth including heat mitigation and energy use, carbon sequestration and flood prevention.

  1. Modeling urbanization patterns at a global scale with generative adversarial networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, A. T.; Strano, E.; Gonzalez, M.

    2017-12-01

    Current demographic projections show that, in the next 30 years, global population growth will mostly take place in developing countries. Coupled with a decrease in density, such population growth could potentially double the land occupied by settlements by 2050. The lack of reliable and globally consistent socio-demographic data, coupled with the limited predictive performance underlying traditional urban spatial explicit models, call for developing better predictive methods, calibrated using a globally-consistent dataset. Thus, richer models of the spatial interplay between the urban built-up land, population distribution and energy use are central to the discussion around the expansion and development of cities, and their impact on the environment in the context of a changing climate. In this talk we discuss methods for, and present an analysis of, urban form, defined as the spatial distribution of macroeconomic quantities that characterize a city, using modern machine learning methods and best-available remote-sensing data for the world's largest 25,000 cities. We first show that these cities may be described by a small set of patterns in radial building density, nighttime luminosity, and population density, which highlight, to first order, differences in development and land use across the world. We observe significant, spatially-dependent variance around these typical patterns, which would be difficult to model using traditional statistical methods. We take a first step in addressing this challenge by developing CityGAN, a conditional generative adversarial network model for simulating realistic urban forms. To guide learning and measure the quality of the simulated synthetic cities, we develop a specialized loss function for GAN optimization that incorporates standard spatial statistics used by urban analysis experts. Our framework is a stark departure from both the standard physics-based approaches in the literature (that view urban forms as fractals with a

  2. Dynamics of urban population growth in Nigeria: The role of repeated migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adepoju, A

    1976-02-01

    The paper examines the direct contribution of migration to the growth of the urban population both in terms of its mobility and stability components with special reference to Western Nigeria. The basis of the paper is a survey of urban migration conducted by the author in 1971-1972; the findings are supplemented where necessary by the 1952-1953 and 1963 census figures. Migration is a major factor in the growth of the urban population. The direct contribution by migrants to such growth can be traced to the following groups: the initial streams of migrants, the follow-up migrants and the potentially mobile migrants attracted from the migrants' communities of origin to the towns. Repeated migration by some migrants, particularly the young, the educated and the white collar-workers, are also major factors in the urban population growth. Such repeated migrations are predominantly urban to urban or turnover moves. The high mobility rate among a group of migrants tends to conceal the relative stability among the migrant population as a whole. Repeated migrants usually stay between 3 and 5 years at each destination, before moving on. A substantial proportion of migrants, mainly farmers, the less educated and the old, are relatively stable in the survey towns (Ife and Oshogho). The urban residence ration indices also indicate an increase in the rate of immigration, mainly of young persons, to the towns. The youthful age structure, the age selectivity in migration and the marital status of the young migrants tend to exacerbate the masculinity in the form of unbalanced sex ratio prevailing in most urban centers. The urban population is unlikely to be stable. The tendency for old migrants of rural origin to return to their villages at the end of their migration career and for contemporary migrants to consist predominantly of youths, will for the next generation or 2 lead to a young and unstable urban population.

  3. Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Logan E; Lin, John C; Bowling, David R; Pataki, Diane E; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E; Stephens, Britton B; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R; Ehleringer, James R

    2018-03-20

    Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah's metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine "excess" CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2 , implying a nonlinear relationship with CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

  4. Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; Pataki, Diane E.; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J.; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E.; Stephens, Britton B.; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R.; Ehleringer, James R.

    2018-03-01

    Cities are concentrated areas of CO2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO2, implying a nonlinear relationship with CO2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

  5. Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled With Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Estes, M. G.; Crosson, W. L.; Johnson, H.; Khan, M.

    2006-05-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world's population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as

  6. Remote sensing based approach for monitoring urban growth in Mexico city, Mexico: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obade, Vincent

    The world is experiencing a rapid rate of urban expansion, largely contributed by the population growth. Other factors supporting urban growth include the improved efficiency in the transportation sector and increasing dependence on cars as a means of transport. The problems attributed to the urban growth include: depletion of energy resources, water and air pollution; loss of landscapes and wildlife, loss of agricultural land, inadequate social security and lack of employment or underemployment. Aerial photography is one of the popular techniques for analyzing, planning and minimizing urbanization related problems. However, with the advances in space technology, satellite remote sensing is increasingly being utilized in the analysis and planning of the urban environment. This article outlines the strengths and limitations of potential remote sensing techniques for monitoring urban growth. The selected methods include: Principal component analysis, Maximum likelihood classification and "decision tree". The results indicate that the "classification tree" approach is the most promising for monitoring urban change, given the improved accuracy and smooth transition between the various land cover classes

  7. Urban Saturated Power Load Analysis Based on a Novel Combined Forecasting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of urban saturated power loads is helpful to coordinate urban power grid construction and economic social development. There are two different kinds of forecasting models: the logistic curve model focuses on the growth law of the data itself, while the multi-dimensional forecasting model considers several influencing factors as the input variables. To improve forecasting performance, a novel combined forecasting model for saturated power load analysis was proposed in this paper, which combined the above two models. Meanwhile, the weights of these two models in the combined forecasting model were optimized by employing a fruit fly optimization algorithm. Using Hubei Province as the example, the effectiveness of the proposed combined forecasting model was verified, demonstrating a higher forecasting accuracy. The analysis result shows that the power load of Hubei Province will reach saturation in 2039, and the annual maximum power load will reach about 78,630 MW. The results obtained from this proposed hybrid urban saturated power load analysis model can serve as a reference for sustainable development for urban power grids, regional economies, and society at large.

  8. Slow Growth and Urban Sprawl: Support for a New Regional Agenda?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gainsborough, Juliet F.

    2002-01-01

    Assessed the possibilities for coalition building around growth related concerns, exploring support for slowing growth in New York City and Los Angeles. Analyzed data from surveys of urban and suburban dwellers regarding support for growth control measures. Suburbanites were much more receptive to slow growth policies than were urbanites, though…

  9. Impact of Urban Growth and Urbanization on the Environmental Degradation of Lakes in Hyderabad City, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandan, M. J.; Sen, M. K.; Harini, P.; Sekhar, B. M.; Balaji, T.

    2013-12-01

    Lakes are a vital part of urban ecosystems which perform important ecological and environmental functions to safeguard local climate, groundwater and habitat. The incessant population growth coupled with low urban planning is causing severe damage to urban ecosystems throughout the world. Hyderabad is one of the largest growing metropolitan cities of India covering an area of 65000 ha situated on the banks of Musi River in the northern part of the Deccan Plateau. The city had a population of 1.25 million in 1961 which increased to 6.8 million in 2011 with a metropolitan population of 7.75 million, making it India's fourth most populous city and sixth most populous urban agglomeration. Hyderabad is popularly known as 'City of Lakes' which occupies the top position in India in terms of Urban Lakes. In 20th century, the number of lakes were around 925 which are now reduced to 521 and most of these lakes are facing extinction. The water spread area of these lakes has been considerably reduced due to steady urban growth and the carrying capacity and ecological status of these urban lakes are in real danger. Many of these lakes have shrunk in size while the waters of several lakes got polluted with the discharge of untreated domestic and industrial effluents. Taking into consideration the environmental degradation of urban lakes, an attempt was made to study the current status, loss of water bodies and water spread using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Time-series satellite images of MSS, IRS and RESOURCESAT and Survey of India maps of 1:50,000 and 1:25,000 were used for this study. Analysis of these together with other data sets was accomplished through integrated use of ERDAS Imagine Arc view and ArcGIS software packages. It is estimated that there were 925 lakes in 1982 in erstwhile Hyderabad Urban Development Authority (HUDA) area which came down to 521 in 2012. A total number of 404 lakes disappeared during the last 30 years period. Consequently the water spread

  10. Urban Landscape Characterization Using Remote Sensing Data For Input into Air Quality Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Khan, Maudood

    2005-01-01

    The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models that are used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, particularly for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of air quality models to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well these models predict ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban growth projections as improved inputs to meteorological and air quality models focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1 km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality.

  11. Beyond urban penalty and urban sprawl: back to living conditions as the focus of urban health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freudenberg, Nicholas; Galea, Sandro; Vlahov, David

    2005-02-01

    Researchers have long studied urban health, both to describe the consequences of urban living and to design interventions to promote the health of people living in cities. Two approaches to understanding the impact of cities on health have been dominant, namely, urban health penalty and urban sprawl. The urban penalty approach posits that cities concentrate poor people and expose them to unhealthy physical and social environments. Urban sprawl focuses on the adverse health and environmental effects of urban growth into outlying areas. We propose a model that integrates these approaches and emphasizes urban living conditions as the primary determinant of health. The aim of the model is to move beyond describing the health-related characteristics of various urban populations towards identifying opportunities for intervention. Such a shift in framework enables meaningful comparisons that can inform public health activities at the appropriate level and evaluate their effectiveness in improving the health of urban populations. The model is illustrated with two examples from current urban public health practice.

  12. Assessment of ecosystem services provided by urban trees: public lands within the Urban Growth Boundary of Corvallis, OR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Public lands within the Urban Growth Boundary of Corvallis, Oregon contain a diverse population of about 440,000 trees that include over 300 varieties and have an estimated tree cover of 31%. While often unrecognized, urban trees provide a variety of “ecosystem services” or dire...

  13. China's Urban Transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pannell, Clifton

    1995-01-01

    Maintains that Chinese urbanization is proceeding rapidly in step with population growth and a structural shift in employment patterns. Discusses governmental policies and economic reforms that enhance the urbanization process. Describes four extended metropolitan areas and maintains they will be the models for future urbanization. (CFR)

  14. Variability in urban soils influences the health and growth of native tree seedlings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clara C. Pregitzer; Nancy F. Sonti; Richard A. Hallett

    2016-01-01

    Reforesting degraded urban landscapes is important due to the many benefits urban forests provide. Urban soils are highly variable, yet little is known about how this variability in urban soils influences tree seedling performance and survival. We conducted a greenhouse study to assess health, growth, and survival of four native tree species growing in native glacial...

  15. Mapping forest structure, species gradients and growth in an urban area using lidar and hyperspectral imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Huan

    Urban forests play an important role in the urban ecosystem by providing a range of ecosystem services. Characterization of forest structure, species variation and growth in urban forests is critical for understanding the status, function and process of urban ecosystems, and helping maximize the benefits of urban ecosystems through management. The development of methods and applications to quantify urban forests using remote sensing data has lagged the study of natural forests due to the heterogeneity and complexity of urban ecosystems. In this dissertation, I quantify and map forest structure, species gradients and forest growth in an urban area using discrete-return lidar, airborne imaging spectroscopy and thermal infrared data. Specific objectives are: (1) to demonstrate the utility of leaf-off lidar originally collected for topographic mapping to characterize and map forest structure and associated uncertainties, including aboveground biomass, basal area, diameter, height and crown size; (2) to map species gradients using forest structural variables estimated from lidar and foliar functional traits, vegetation indices derived from AVIRIS hyperspectral imagery in conjunction with field-measured species data; and (3) to identify factors related to relative growth rates in aboveground biomass in the urban forests, and assess forest growth patterns across areas with varying degree of human interactions. The findings from this dissertation are: (1) leaf-off lidar originally acquired for topographic mapping provides a robust, potentially low-cost approach to quantify spatial patterns of forest structure and carbon stock in urban areas; (2) foliar functional traits and vegetation indices from hyperspectral data capture gradients of species distributions in the heterogeneous urban landscape; (3) species gradients, stand structure, foliar functional traits and temperature are strongly related to forest growth in the urban forests; and (4) high uncertainties in our

  16. Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Johnson, Hoyt; Khan, Maudood

    2006-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared

  17. Landscape analysis of urban growth patterns in Seremban, Malaysia, using spatio-temporal data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aburas, Maher M.; Abdullah, Sabrina H.; Ramli, Mohammad F.; As'shari, Zulfa H.

    2016-06-01

    Urban growth is one of the major issues that have played a significant role in destroying the ecosystem in recent years. Landscape analysis is an important technique widely used to evaluate urban growth patterns. In this study, four land-use maps from 1984, 1990, 2000, and 2010 have been used to analyze an urban landscape. The values of a built-up area were initially computed using a geographic information system environment based on the spatial gradient approach. Mathematical matrices were then used to determine the amount of change in urban patches in each direction. Results of the number of patches, landscape shape index, aggregation index, and total edges confirmed that the urban patches in Seremban, Malaysia, have become more dispersed from 2000 to 2010. The urban patches have also become more continuous, especially in the north-western part of Seremban as a result of the urban development in the Nilai District. These results indicate the necessity to create new policies in the city to protect the sustainability of the land use of Seremban.

  18. Analysis of Settlement Expansion and Urban Growth Modelling Using Geoinformation for Assessing Potential Impacts of Urbanization on Climate in Abuja City, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Ibrahim Mahmoud

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern of settlement expansion in Abuja, Nigeria, one of West Africa’s fastest developing cities, using geoinformation and ancillary datasets. Three epochs of Land-use Land-cover (LULC maps for 1986, 2001 and 2014 were derived from Landsat images using support vector machines (SVM. Accuracy assessment (AA of the LULC maps based on the pixel count resulted in overall accuracy of 82%, 92% and 92%, while the AA derived from the error adjusted area (EAA method stood at 69%, 91% and 91% for 1986, 2001 and 2014, respectively. Two major techniques for detecting changes in the LULC epochs involved the use of binary maps as well as a post-classification comparison approach. Quantitative spatiotemporal analysis was conducted to detect LULC changes with specific focus on the settlement development pattern of Abuja, the federal capital city (FCC of Nigeria. Logical transitions to the urban category were modelled for predicting future scenarios for the year 2050 using the embedded land change modeler (LCM in the IDRISI package. Based on the EAA, the result showed that urban areas increased by more than 11% between 1986 and 2001. In contrast, this value rose to 17% between 2001 and 2014. The LCM model projected LULC changes that showed a growing trend in settlement expansion, which might take over allotted spaces for green areas and agricultural land if stringent development policies and enforcement measures are not implemented. In conclusion, integrating geospatial technologies with ancillary datasets offered improved understanding of how urbanization processes such as increased imperviousness of such a magnitude could influence the urban microclimate through the alteration of natural land surface temperature. Urban expansion could also lead to increased surface runoff as well as changes in drainage geography leading to urban floods.

  19. An integrated urban drainage system model for assessing renovation scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, X; Zeng, S; Chen, J; Zhao, D

    2012-01-01

    Due to sustained economic growth in China over the last three decades, urbanization has been on a rapidly expanding track. In recent years, regional industrial relocations were also accelerated across the country from the east coast to the west inland. These changes have led to a large-scale redesign of urban infrastructures, including the drainage system. To help the reconstructed infrastructures towards a better sustainability, a tool is required for assessing the efficiency and environmental performance of different renovation schemes. This paper developed an integrated dynamic modeling tool, which consisted of three models for describing the sewer, the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and the receiving water body respectively. Three auxiliary modules were also incorporated to conceptualize the model, calibrate the simulations, and analyze the results. The developed integrated modeling tool was applied to a case study in Shenzhen City, which is one of the most dynamic cities and facing considerable challenges for environmental degradation. The renovation scheme proposed to improve the environmental performance of Shenzhen City's urban drainage system was modeled and evaluated. The simulation results supplied some suggestions for the further improvement of the renovation scheme.

  20. Monitoring of urban growth in the state of Hidalgo using Landsat images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Cano Salinas

    2017-03-01

    Given this background, this paper is focused on the generation of geographic information for regional urban planning and the overall aim is to examine urban growth rate during the period 2000-2014 in the state of Hidalgo, Mexico and identify potential areas of expansion from Landsat images. The methodology was based on techniques of remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS. The inputs used were six Landsat scenes: three for 2000 year and three for 2014. Image processing was performed on ERDAS Imagine® 9.1 and the spatial analysis of urban coverage statewide on ArcGIS 10.0 by ESRI®. First, the radiometric correction was made and we obtained the urban polygons of the 2000 year through of supervised classification. The 2014 urban layer was digitized manually due to the spectral incompatibility between the bands of the Landsat sensor 5 and 7, and the Landsat sensor 8. Then, we build a road density map and the spatial relationship of the urban centers with the road influence area was evaluated. For the year 2000, 103 urban polygons were mapped, whilst for 2014 were identified ten polygons more with a mapped minimum area of 24 ha. The main results indicated that in the state has increased 72.3 km2 urban area from 2000 to 2014. This represents an average growth rate of 1.8% per year. The most widespread municipalities are located in the region of Valle del Mezquital, however, Mineral de la Reforma, Tetepango, Tizayuca and Pachuca showed growth rates of 183.44%, 102% 94% and 68.5% in fourteen years, respectively. According to the road map density, these municipalities are located in areas of greatest influence of infrastructure as the Arco Norte highway in the state. The above findings, lead us to conclude that the Mezquital Valley and the Basin of Mexico are potential areas of urban spreading and it is associated with road development in the Central Mexico.

  1. A smart growth evaluation model based on data envelopment analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaokun; Guan, Yongyi

    2018-04-01

    With the rapid spread of urbanization, smart growth (SG) has attracted plenty of attention from all over the world. In this paper, by the establishment of index system for smart growth, data envelopment analysis (DEA) model was suggested to evaluate the SG level of the current growth situation in cities. In order to further improve the information of both radial direction and non-radial detection, we introduced the non-Archimedean infinitesimal to form C2GS2 control model. Finally, we evaluated the SG level in Canberra and identified a series of problems, which can verify the applicability of the model and provide us more improvement information.

  2. Monitoring urban growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller-Jensen, Lasse; Kofie, Richard; Yankson, Paul

    2007-01-01

    The extent of the urbanized areas of Accra is assessed from Landsat-TM satellite images for the year 2002 and compared to similar information for the years 1985 and 1991. A texture-based classification method is applied. The results show that the urbanization of the fringe areas of Accra is occur......The extent of the urbanized areas of Accra is assessed from Landsat-TM satellite images for the year 2002 and compared to similar information for the years 1985 and 1991. A texture-based classification method is applied. The results show that the urbanization of the fringe areas of Accra...

  3. Spatiotemporal Simulation of Tourist Town Growth Based on the Cellular Automata Model: The Case of Sanpo Town in Hebei Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Yang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Spatiotemporal simulation of tourist town growth is important for research on land use/cover change under the influence of urbanization. Many scholars have shown great interest in the unique pattern of driving urban development with tourism development. Based on the cellular automata (CA model, we simulated and predicted the spatiotemporal growth of Sanpo town in Hebei Province, using the tourism urbanization growth model. Results showed that (1 average annual growth rate of the entire region was 1.5 Ha2 per year from 2005 to 2010, 4 Ha2 per year from 2010 to 2015, and 2.5 Ha2 per year from 2015 to 2020; (2 urban growth rate increased yearly, with regional differences, and had a high degree of correlation with the Euclidean distance of town center, traffic route, attractions, and other factors; (3 Gougezhuang, an important village center in the west of the town, demonstrated traffic advantages and increased growth rate since 2010; (4 Magezhuang village has the largest population in the region, so economic advantages have driven the development of rural urbanization. It showed that CA had high reliability in simulating the spatiotemporal evolution of tourist town, which assists the study of spatiotemporal growth under urbanization and rational protection of tourism resources.

  4. Understanding complex urban systems integrating multidisciplinary data in urban models

    CERN Document Server

    Gebetsroither-Geringer, Ernst; Atun, Funda; Werner, Liss

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the modeling and understanding of complex urban systems. This second volume of Understanding Complex Urban Systems focuses on the challenges of the modeling tools, concerning, e.g., the quality and quantity of data and the selection of an appropriate modeling approach. It is meant to support urban decision-makers—including municipal politicians, spatial planners, and citizen groups—in choosing an appropriate modeling approach for their particular modeling requirements. The contributors to this volume are from different disciplines, but all share the same goal: optimizing the representation of complex urban systems. They present and discuss a variety of approaches for dealing with data-availability problems and finding appropriate modeling approaches—and not only in terms of computer modeling. The selection of articles featured in this volume reflect a broad variety of new and established modeling approaches such as: - An argument for using Big Data methods in conjunction with Age...

  5. Urban growth patterns in major Southeast Asian cities: Toward exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandapaka, Pradeep; Kamarajugedda, Shankar A.; Lo, Edmond Y. M.

    2017-04-01

    Southeast Asia (SEA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, with urban population percentage increasing from 32% in 1990 to 48% in 2015. It is projected that by the year 2040, urban regions in SEA account for 60% of its total population. The region is home to 600 million people, with many densely populated cities, including megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila. The region has more than 20,000 islands, and many cities lie on coastal low-lands and floodplains. These geographical characteristics together with the increasing population, infrastructure growth, and changing climate makes the region highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This study assessed urban growth dynamics in major (defined as population exceeding 1 million) SEA cities using remotely sensed night-time lights (NTL) data. A recently proposed brightness gradient approach was applied on 21 years (1992-2012) of NTL annual composites to derive core-urban (CU) and peri-urban (PU) regions within each city. The study also assessed the sensitivity of above extracted urban categories to different NTL thresholds. The temporal trends in CU and PU regions were quantified, and compared with trends in socio-economic indicators. The spatial expansion of CU and PU regions were found to depend on geographical constraints and socio-economic factors. Quantification of urban growth spatial-temporal patterns, as conducted here contributes towards the understanding of exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructures to natural hazards, as well as the evolving trends for assessment under projected urbanization conditions. This will underpin better risk assessment efforts for present and future planning.

  6. An Integrated Model Based on a Hierarchical Indices System for Monitoring and Evaluating Urban Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xulin Guo

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Over 50% of world’s population presently resides in cities, and this number is expected to rise to ~70% by 2050. Increasing urbanization problems including population growth, urban sprawl, land use change, unemployment, and environmental degradation, have markedly impacted urban residents’ Quality of Life (QOL. Therefore, urban sustainability and its measurement have gained increasing attention from administrators, urban planners, and scientific communities throughout the world with respect to improving urban development and human well-being. The widely accepted definition of urban sustainability emphasizes the balancing development of three primary domains (urban economy, society, and environment. This article attempts to improve the aforementioned definition of urban sustainability by incorporating a human well-being dimension. Major problems identified in existing urban sustainability indicator (USI models include a weak integration of potential indicators, poor measurement and quantification, and insufficient spatial-temporal analysis. To tackle these challenges an integrated USI model based on a hierarchical indices system was established for monitoring and evaluating urban sustainability. This model can be performed by quantifying indicators using both traditional statistical approaches and advanced geomatic techniques based on satellite imagery and census data, which aims to provide a theoretical basis for a comprehensive assessment of urban sustainability from a spatial-temporal perspective.

  7. A critical review of integrated urban water modellingUrban drainage and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach, Peter M.; Rauch, Wolfgang; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2014-01-01

    considerations (e.g. data issues, model structure, computational and integration-related aspects), common methodology for model development (through a systems approach), calibration/optimisation and uncertainty are discussed, placing importance on pragmatism and parsimony. Integrated urban water models should......Modelling interactions in urban drainage, water supply and broader integrated urban water systems has been conceptually and logistically challenging as evidenced in a diverse body of literature, found to be confusing and intimidating to new researchers. This review consolidates thirty years...... of research (initially driven by interest in urban drainage modelling) and critically reflects upon integrated modelling in the scope of urban water systems. We propose a typology to classify integrated urban water system models at one of four ‘degrees of integration’ (followed by its exemplification). Key...

  8. Dietary habits and growth: an urban/rural comparison in the Andean region of Apurimac, Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Andrissi

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The efficacy of interventions against children malnutrition crucially depends on a myriad of factors other than the simple food intake, that must be carefully studied in order to plan a balanced policy. The relation between dietary patterns and growth is at the very heart of the problem, especially in consideration of the fact that dietary pattern involves dimension other than pure caloric intake in its definition. In this work we investigated the relations between dietary pattern and growth comparing children from a rural and a urban area in Andean Peru, in terms of food habits and anthropometric variables to develop a model usable in context interventions against malnutrition. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A sample of 159 children (80 from urban, 79 from rural area, aged from 4 to 120 months (72.7 ± 37.5 SD was collected. The data were investigated by a multidimensional (principal component analysis followed by inferential approach analysis to correlate the different hidden dimensions of both anthropometric and dietary observables. The correlation between these dimensions (in the form of principal components were computed and contrasted with the effects of age and urban/rural environments. RESULTS: Caloric intake and growth were not linearly correlated in our data set. Moreover urban and rural environment were demonstrated to show very different patterns of both dietary and anthropometric variables pointing to the marked effect of dietary habits and demographic composition of the analyzed populations. The relation between malnutrition and overweight was at the same time demonstrated to follow a strict area dependent distribution. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: We gave a proof-of-concept of the non-linear character of the relation between malnutrition (in terms of caloric intake and growth, pointing to the need to calibrate interventions on food pattern and not only quantity to contrast malnutrition effects on growth. The education toward a

  9. Dietary habits and growth: an urban/rural comparison in the Andean region of Apurimac, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrissi, Laura; Mottini, Giovanni; Sebastiani, Valeria; Boldrini, Laura; Giuliani, Alessandro

    2013-01-01

    The efficacy of interventions against children malnutrition crucially depends on a myriad of factors other than the simple food intake, that must be carefully studied in order to plan a balanced policy. The relation between dietary patterns and growth is at the very heart of the problem, especially in consideration of the fact that dietary pattern involves dimension other than pure caloric intake in its definition. In this work we investigated the relations between dietary pattern and growth comparing children from a rural and a urban area in Andean Peru, in terms of food habits and anthropometric variables to develop a model usable in context interventions against malnutrition. A sample of 159 children (80 from urban, 79 from rural area), aged from 4 to 120 months (72.7 ± 37.5 SD) was collected. The data were investigated by a multidimensional (principal component analysis followed by inferential approach) analysis to correlate the different hidden dimensions of both anthropometric and dietary observables. The correlation between these dimensions (in the form of principal components) were computed and contrasted with the effects of age and urban/rural environments. Caloric intake and growth were not linearly correlated in our data set. Moreover urban and rural environment were demonstrated to show very different patterns of both dietary and anthropometric variables pointing to the marked effect of dietary habits and demographic composition of the analyzed populations. The relation between malnutrition and overweight was at the same time demonstrated to follow a strict area-dependent distribution. We gave a proof-of-concept of the non-linear character of the relation between malnutrition (in terms of caloric intake) and growth, pointing to the need to calibrate interventions on food pattern and not only quantity to contrast malnutrition effects on growth. The education toward a balanced diet must go hand-in-hand with the intervention on caloric intake in order to

  10. Urban Growth and Land-Use Structure in Two Mediterranean Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Salvati

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study develops an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA with the aim to assess changes over time in the distribution of selected uses of land in two Mediterranean urban regions (Rome and Athens with different morphology and economic functions. The study uses global and local Moran’s indexes of spatial autocorrelation to describe the land-use structure observed in the two cities in mid-1970s and late-2000s, and debates on the divergent contribution of compact growth and scattered urban expansion to changes in land use. The analysis identifies fringe landscapes as a key target for urban containment policies in sprawling cities.

  11. A meta-analysis of global urban land expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seto, Karen C; Fragkias, Michail; Güneralp, Burak; Reilly, Michael K

    2011-01-01

    The conversion of Earth's land surface to urban uses is one of the most irreversible human impacts on the global biosphere. It drives the loss of farmland, affects local climate, fragments habitats, and threatens biodiversity. Here we present a meta-analysis of 326 studies that have used remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. We report a worldwide observed increase in urban land area of 58,000 km(2) from 1970 to 2000. India, China, and Africa have experienced the highest rates of urban land expansion, and the largest change in total urban extent has occurred in North America. Across all regions and for all three decades, urban land expansion rates are higher than or equal to urban population growth rates, suggesting that urban growth is becoming more expansive than compact. Annual growth in GDP per capita drives approximately half of the observed urban land expansion in China but only moderately affects urban expansion in India and Africa, where urban land expansion is driven more by urban population growth. In high income countries, rates of urban land expansion are slower and increasingly related to GDP growth. However, in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion than it does in Europe. Much of the observed variation in urban expansion was not captured by either population, GDP, or other variables in the model. This suggests that contemporary urban expansion is related to a variety of factors difficult to observe comprehensively at the global level, including international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policy, and generalized transport costs. Using the results from the global model, we develop forecasts for new urban land cover using SRES Scenarios. Our results show that by 2030, global urban land cover will increase between 430,000 km(2) and 12,568,000 km(2), with an estimate of 1,527,000 km(2) more likely.

  12. Urban ecosystem modeling and global change: Potential for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Shaoqing; Chen, Bin; Fath, Brian D.

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization is a strong and extensive driver that causes environmental pollution and climate change from local to global scale. Modeling cities as ecosystems has been initiated by a wide range of scientists as a key to addressing challenging problems concomitant with urbanization. In this paper, ‘urban ecosystem modeling (UEM)’ is defined in an inter-disciplinary context to acquire a broad perception of urban ecological properties and their interactions with global change. Furthermore, state-of-the-art models of urban ecosystems are reviewed, categorized as top-down models (including materials/energy-oriented models and structure-oriented models), bottom-up models (including land use-oriented models and infrastructure-oriented models), or hybrid models thereof. Based on the review of UEM studies, a future framework for explicit UEM is proposed based the integration of UEM approaches of different scales, guiding more rational urban management and efficient emissions mitigation. - Highlights: • Urban ecosystems modeling (UEM) is defined in an interdisciplinary context. • State-of-the-art models for UEM are critically reviewed and compared. • An integrated framework for explicit UEM is proposed under global change. - State-of-the-art models of urban ecosystem modeling (UEM) are reviewed for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

  13. Geosimulation of urban growth and demographic decline in the Ruhr: a case study for 2025 using the artificial intelligence of cells and agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rienow, Andreas; Stenger, Dirk

    2014-07-01

    The Ruhr is an "old acquaintance" in the discourse of urban decline in old industrialized cities. The agglomeration has to struggle with archetypical problems of former monofunctional manufacturing cities. Surprisingly, the image of a shrinking city has to be refuted if you shift the focus from socioeconomic wealth to its morphological extension. Thus, it is the objective of this study to meet the challenge of modeling urban sprawl and demographic decline by combining two artificial intelligent solutions: The popular urban cellular automaton SLEUTH simulates urban growth using four simple but effective growth rules. In order to improve its performance, SLEUTH has been modified among others by combining it with a robust probability map based on support vector machines. Additionally, a complex multi-agent system is developed to simulate residential mobility in a shrinking city agglomeration: residential mobility and the housing market of shrinking city systems focuses on the dynamic of interregional housing markets implying the development of potential dwelling areas. The multi-agent system comprises the simulation of population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking city agglomerations. Both models are calibrated and validated regarding their localization and quantification performance. Subsequently, the urban landscape configuration and composition of the Ruhr 2025 are simulated. A simple spatial join is used to combine the results serving as valuable inputs for future regional planning in the context of multifarious demographic change and preceding urban growth.

  14. The water balance of the urban Salt Lake Valley: a multiple-box model validated by observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stwertka, C.; Strong, C.

    2012-12-01

    A main focus of the recently awarded National Science Foundation (NSF) EPSCoR Track-1 research project "innovative Urban Transitions and Arid-region Hydro-sustainability (iUTAH)" is to quantify the primary components of the water balance for the Wasatch region, and to evaluate their sensitivity to climate change and projected urban development. Building on the multiple-box model that we developed and validated for carbon dioxide (Strong et al 2011), mass balance equations for water in the atmosphere and surface are incorporated into the modeling framework. The model is used to determine how surface fluxes, ground-water transport, biological fluxes, and meteorological processes regulate water cycling within and around the urban Salt Lake Valley. The model is used to evaluate the hypotheses that increased water demand associated with urban growth in Salt Lake Valley will (1) elevate sensitivity to projected climate variability and (2) motivate more attentive management of urban water use and evaporative fluxes.

  15. Characterization and spatial modeling of urban sprawl in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Chen; Liu, Yaolin; Stein, Alfred; Jiao, Limin

    2015-02-01

    Urban sprawl has led to environmental problems and large losses of arable land in China. In this study, we monitor and model urban sprawl by means of a combination of remote sensing, geographical information system and spatial statistics. We use time-series data to explore the potential socio-economic driving forces behind urban sprawl, and spatial models in different scenarios to explore the spatio-temporal interactions. The methodology is applied to the city of Wuhan, China, for the period from 1990 to 2013. The results reveal that the built-up land has expanded and has dispersed in urban clusters. Population growth, and economic and transportation development are still the main causes of urban sprawl; however, when they have developed to certain levels, the area affected by construction in urban areas (Jian Cheng Qu (JCQ)) and the area of cultivated land (ACL) tend to be stable. Spatial regression models are shown to be superior to the traditional models. The interaction among districts with the same administrative status is stronger than if one of those neighbors is in the city center and the other in the suburban area. The expansion of urban built-up land is driven by the socio-economic development at the same period, and greatly influenced by its spatio-temporal neighbors. We conclude that the integration of remote sensing, a geographical information system, and spatial statistics offers an excellent opportunity to explore the spatio-temporal variation and interactions among the districts in the sprawling metropolitan areas. Relevant regulations to control the urban sprawl process are suggested accordingly.

  16. Key Challenges and Potential Urban Modelling Opportunities in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Chris Wray

    1Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO), a partnership between the University of ... and guide urban development that is socially, economically and ecologically .... new transport network link may result in an increased investment in land and .... determinants of urban growth in the period 1993-2000 through a case study ...

  17. Using Arc GIS to analyse urban growth towards torrent risk areas (Aswan city as a case study)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamdy, Omar; Zhao, Shichen; Salheen, Mohamed A; Eid, Y Y

    2014-01-01

    Areas suffering from storm water drains are considered to be the places most at risk, water torrents have an effect on urban areas and can cause a lot of damage to buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, there is dangerous situation whereby urban growth is occuring towards at-risk areas. The urban growth rate in risk areas rose up to 24.9% in 2001, and reached 48.8% in 2013. Urban growth in ''Abouelreesh'' village had been influenced by the construction of larger buildings, because most people were looking forward to live in bigger houses. We can discover the previous problem by observing the average size increase of the buildings' areas from 2001 until 2013, especially in risky areas where the average building's area had grown from 254 m2 in 2001 to 411 m2 in 2013. This Phenomenon is considered to be very important factor which attracts the urban growth towards the risky areas in spite of the danger surrounding them

  18. Overview of urban Growth Simulation: With examples from different cities

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Waldeck, L

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This presentation provides an overview of Urban Growth Simulation as a risk free means of assessing the future outcome of major policy and investment decisions with some examples of scenarios that were simulated in different South African cities....

  19. The Power of Micro Urban Structures, Theory of EEPGC - the Micro Urban Energy Distribution Model as a Planning Tool for Sustainable City Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tkáč Štefan

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available To achieve the smart growth and equitable development in the region, urban planners should consider also lateral energies represented by the energy urban models like further proposed EEPGC focused on energy distribution via connections among micro-urban structures, their onsite renewable resources and the perception of micro-urban structures as decentralized energy carriers based on pre industrialized era. These structures are still variously bound when part of greater patterns. After the industrial revolution the main traded goods became energy in its various forms. The EEPGC is focused on sustainable energy transportation distances between the villages and the city, described by the virtual “energy circles”. This more human scale urbanization, boost the economy in micro-urban areas, rising along with clean energy available in situ that surely gives a different perspective to human quality of life in contrast to overcrowded multicultural mega-urban structures facing generations of problems and struggling to survive as a whole.

  20. The Power of Micro Urban Structures, Theory of EEPGC - the Micro Urban Energy Distribution Model as a Planning Tool for Sustainable City Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkáč, Štefan

    2015-11-01

    To achieve the smart growth and equitable development in the region, urban planners should consider also lateral energies represented by the energy urban models like further proposed EEPGC focused on energy distribution via connections among micro-urban structures, their onsite renewable resources and the perception of micro-urban structures as decentralized energy carriers based on pre industrialized era. These structures are still variously bound when part of greater patterns. After the industrial revolution the main traded goods became energy in its various forms. The EEPGC is focused on sustainable energy transportation distances between the villages and the city, described by the virtual "energy circles". This more human scale urbanization, boost the economy in micro-urban areas, rising along with clean energy available in situ that surely gives a different perspective to human quality of life in contrast to overcrowded multicultural mega-urban structures facing generations of problems and struggling to survive as a whole.

  1. Distributed models coupling soakaways, urban drainage and groundwater

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roldin, Maria Kerstin

    in receiving waters, urban flooding etc. WSUD structures are generally small, decentralized systems intended to manage stormwater near the source. Many of these alternative techniques are based on infiltration which can affect both the urban sewer system and urban groundwater levels if widely implemented......Alternative methods for stormwater management in urban areas, also called Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) methods, have become increasingly important for the mitigation of urban stormwater management problems such as high runoff volumes, combined sewage overflows, poor water quality......, and how these can be modeled in an integrated environment with distributed urban drainage and groundwater flow models. The thesis: 1. Identifies appropriate models of soakaways for use in an integrated and distributed urban water and groundwater modeling system 2. Develops a modeling concept that is able...

  2. Modeling the Impacts of Urbanization and Industrial Transformation on Water Resources in China: An Integrated Hydro-Economic CGE Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jiang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Pressure on existing water resources in China is expected to increase with undergoing rapid demographic transformation, economic development, and global climate changes. We investigate the economy-wide impacts of projected urban population growth and economic structural change on water use and allocation in China. Using a multi-regional CGE (Computable General Equilibrium model, TERM (The Enormous Regional Model, we explore the implications of selected future water scenarios for China’s nine watershed regions. Our results indicate that urbanization and industrial transformation in China will raise the opportunity cost of water use and increase the competition for water between non-agricultural users and irrigation water users. The growth in water demand for domestic and industrial uses reduces the amount of water allocated to agriculture, particularly lower-value and water-intensive field crops. As a response, farmers have the incentive to shift their agricultural operations from traditional field crop production to higher-value livestock or intensive crop production. In addition, our results suggest that growing water demand due to urbanization and industrial transformation will raise the shadow price of water in all nine river basins. Finally, we find that national economic growth is largely attributable to urbanization and non-agricultural productivity growth.

  3. The Comparison and Modeling of the Driving Factors of Urban Expansion for Thirty-Five Big Cities in the Three Regions in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian Guangjin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a national- and regional-scale urban growth model (NRUGM of China based on panel data analysis. Through the panel analysis, population growth, road construction, salary increment per capita, and secondary industry product increment were proven to be the major driving factors for national-scale urban expansion. According to Seventh Five-Year Plan, China had been divided into three regions, Eastern China, Middle China, and Western China, by their geographic position and economic development. We studied the relationship between urban expansion and the driving factors for the three regions between 1990 and 2010 in China. The driving factors of urban expansion were different for the different regions and periods. Population growth and road construction were identified as the two major factors driving urban expansion for Eastern China. Secondary industry and economic development had become the major driving factors for urban expansion over the last twenty years in Middle China. Over the same period, for Western China, economic growth had become the major driving factor for urban expansion. Our results have significant policy implications for China. The macrocontrol of the central government should utilize different policies to adjust urban expansion in the different regions.

  4. Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Boykin, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

  5. Urban growth trends in midsize Chilean cities: the case of Temuco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Marchant Santiago

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Academic production about the main Chilean cities exceeds the existing documentation on intermediate cities, though they have shown interesting trends patterns in recent years which have changed the urban system in Chile. This paper aims to analyze the urban growth processes in Chilean intermediate cities using Temuco as a case study. It begins with an historical look at the city and then mentions that in the last decades this kind of cities have undergone new forms of segregation associated to real estate activities such as private communities, rural residential properties and new localization of services which have resulted in a fragmentation of urban space, a phenomenon reinforced by the consolidation of some satellite cities. At the same time, many urban problems associated to poverty, like a standstill of the regional economy and environmental pollution have appeared, jeopardizing the sustainability of these spaces, questioning current development parameters. The article ends considering the future challenges in Temuco’s urban development.

  6. Growth Scenarios for the City of Guangzhou, China: Transferability and Confirmability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehner, A.; Kraus, V.; Wei, C.; Steinnocher, K.

    2016-09-01

    This work deals with the development of urban growth scenarios and the prevision of the spatial distribution of built-up area and population for the urban area of the city of Guangzhou in China. Using freely-available data, including remotely sensed data as well as census data from the ground, expenditure of time and costs shall remain low. Guangzhou, one of the biggest cities within the Pearl River Delta, has faced an enormous economic and urban growth during the last three decades. Due to its economical and spatial characteristics it is a promising candidate for urban growth scenarios. The monitoring and prediction of urban growth comprises data of population and give them a spatial representation. The model, originally applied for the Indian city Ahmedabad, is used for urban growth scenarios. Therefore, transferability and confirmability of the model are evaluated. Challenges that may occur by transferring a model for urban growth from one region to another are discussed. With proposing the use of urban remote sensing and freely available data, urban planners shall be fitted with a comprehensible and simple tool to be able to contribute to the future challenge Smart Growth.

  7. GROWTH SCENARIOS FOR THE CITY OF GUANGZHOU, CHINA: TRANSFERABILITY AND CONFIRMABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Lehner

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This work deals with the development of urban growth scenarios and the prevision of the spatial distribution of built-up area and population for the urban area of the city of Guangzhou in China. Using freely-available data, including remotely sensed data as well as census data from the ground, expenditure of time and costs shall remain low. Guangzhou, one of the biggest cities within the Pearl River Delta, has faced an enormous economic and urban growth during the last three decades. Due to its economical and spatial characteristics it is a promising candidate for urban growth scenarios. The monitoring and prediction of urban growth comprises data of population and give them a spatial representation. The model, originally applied for the Indian city Ahmedabad, is used for urban growth scenarios. Therefore, transferability and confirmability of the model are evaluated. Challenges that may occur by transferring a model for urban growth from one region to another are discussed. With proposing the use of urban remote sensing and freely available data, urban planners shall be fitted with a comprehensible and simple tool to be able to contribute to the future challenge Smart Growth.

  8. Municipal property acquisition patterns in a shrinking city: Evidence for the persistence of an urban growth paradigm in Buffalo, NY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Mark Silverman

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to examine municipal property acquisition patterns in shrinking cities. We use data from the City of Buffalo’s municipal property auction records to analyze the spatial distribution of properties offered for sale in its annual tax foreclosure auction. In addition to these data, we examine demolition and building permit records. Our analysis suggests that cities like Buffalo follow strategies based on an urban growth paradigm when responding to abandonment. This paradigm operates under the assumption that growth is a constant and urban development is only limited by fiscal constraints, underdeveloped systems of urban governance, environmental degradation, and resistance by anti-growth coalitions. We recommend that planners in shrinking cities de-emphasize growth-based planning and focus on rightsizing strategies. These strategies are based on the assumption that growth is not a constant. Consequently, urban revitalization is concentrated in a smaller urban footprint.

  9. Exploring the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China using ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) and FDM (factor decomposition model)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yaobin

    2009-01-01

    The paper develops a function of energy consumption, population growth, economic growth and urbanization process, and provides fresh empirical evidences for urbanization and energy consumption for China over the period 1978-2008 through the use of ARDL testing approach and factor decomposition model. The results of the bounds test show that there is a stable long run relationship amongst total energy consumption, population, GDP (Gross domestic product) and urbanization level when total energy consumption is the dependent variable in China. The results of the causality test with ECM (error correction model) specification, the short run and long run dynamics of the interested variables are tested, indicating that there exists only a unidirectional Granger causality running from urbanization to total energy consumption both in the long run and in the short run. At present, the contribution share which urbanization drags the energy consumption is smaller than that in the past, and the intensity holds a downward trend. Therefore, together with enhancing energy efficiency, accelerating the urbanization process that can cut reliance on resource and energy dependent industries is a fundamental strategy to solve the sustainable development dilemma between energy consumption and urbanization.

  10. Exploring the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China using ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) and FDM (factor decomposition model)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Yaobin [Research Center of the Central China Economic Development, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330047 (China)

    2009-11-15

    The paper develops a function of energy consumption, population growth, economic growth and urbanization process, and provides fresh empirical evidences for urbanization and energy consumption for China over the period 1978-2008 through the use of ARDL testing approach and factor decomposition model. The results of the bounds test show that there is a stable long run relationship amongst total energy consumption, population, GDP (Gross domestic product) and urbanization level when total energy consumption is the dependent variable in China. The results of the causality test with ECM (error correction model) specification, the short run and long run dynamics of the interested variables are tested, indicating that there exists only a unidirectional Granger causality running from urbanization to total energy consumption both in the long run and in the short run. At present, the contribution share which urbanization drags the energy consumption is smaller than that in the past, and the intensity holds a downward trend. Therefore, together with enhancing energy efficiency, accelerating the urbanization process that can cut reliance on resource and energy dependent industries is a fundamental strategy to solve the sustainable development dilemma between energy consumption and urbanization. (author)

  11. Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

    2011-12-01

    The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over

  12. Limited urban growth: London's street network dynamics since the 18th century.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Paolo Masucci

    Full Text Available We investigate the growth dynamics of Greater London defined by the administrative boundary of the Greater London Authority, based on the evolution of its street network during the last two centuries. This is done by employing a unique dataset, consisting of the planar graph representation of nine time slices of Greater London's road network spanning 224 years, from 1786 to 2010. Within this time-frame, we address the concept of the metropolitan area or city in physical terms, in that urban evolution reveals observable transitions in the distribution of relevant geometrical properties. Given that London has a hard boundary enforced by its long standing green belt, we show that its street network dynamics can be described as a fractal space-filling phenomena up to a capacitated limit, whence its growth can be predicted with a striking level of accuracy. This observation is confirmed by the analytical calculation of key topological properties of the planar graph, such as the topological growth of the network and its average connectivity. This study thus represents an example of a strong violation of Gibrat's law. In particular, we are able to show analytically how London evolves from a more loop-like structure, typical of planned cities, toward a more tree-like structure, typical of self-organized cities. These observations are relevant to the discourse on sustainable urban planning with respect to the control of urban sprawl in many large cities which have developed under the conditions of spatial constraints imposed by green belts and hard urban boundaries.

  13. Limited urban growth: London's street network dynamics since the 18th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masucci, A Paolo; Stanilov, Kiril; Batty, Michael

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the growth dynamics of Greater London defined by the administrative boundary of the Greater London Authority, based on the evolution of its street network during the last two centuries. This is done by employing a unique dataset, consisting of the planar graph representation of nine time slices of Greater London's road network spanning 224 years, from 1786 to 2010. Within this time-frame, we address the concept of the metropolitan area or city in physical terms, in that urban evolution reveals observable transitions in the distribution of relevant geometrical properties. Given that London has a hard boundary enforced by its long standing green belt, we show that its street network dynamics can be described as a fractal space-filling phenomena up to a capacitated limit, whence its growth can be predicted with a striking level of accuracy. This observation is confirmed by the analytical calculation of key topological properties of the planar graph, such as the topological growth of the network and its average connectivity. This study thus represents an example of a strong violation of Gibrat's law. In particular, we are able to show analytically how London evolves from a more loop-like structure, typical of planned cities, toward a more tree-like structure, typical of self-organized cities. These observations are relevant to the discourse on sustainable urban planning with respect to the control of urban sprawl in many large cities which have developed under the conditions of spatial constraints imposed by green belts and hard urban boundaries.

  14. Modeling of facade leaching in urban catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coutu, S.; Del Giudice, D.; Rossi, L.; Barry, D. A.

    2012-12-01

    Building facades are protected from microbial attack by incorporation of biocides within them. Flow over facades leaches these biocides and transports them to the urban environment. A parsimonious water quantity/quality model applicable for engineered urban watersheds was developed to compute biocide release from facades and their transport at the urban basin scale. The model couples two lumped submodels applicable at the basin scale, and a local model of biocide leaching at the facade scale. For the facade leaching, an existing model applicable at the individual wall scale was utilized. The two lumped models describe urban hydrodynamics and leachate transport. The integrated model allows prediction of biocide concentrations in urban rivers. It was applied to a 15 km2urban hydrosystem in western Switzerland, the Vuachère river basin, to study three facade biocides (terbutryn, carbendazim, diuron). The water quality simulated by the model matched well most of the pollutographs at the outlet of the Vuachère watershed. The model was then used to estimate possible ecotoxicological impacts of facade leachates. To this end, exceedance probabilities and cumulative pollutant loads from the catchment were estimated. Results showed that the considered biocides rarely exceeded the relevant predicted no-effect concentrations for the riverine system. Despite the heterogeneities and complexity of (engineered) urban catchments, the model application demonstrated that a computationally "light" model can be employed to simulate the hydrograph and pollutograph response within them. It thus allows catchment-scale assessment of the potential ecotoxicological impact of biocides on receiving waters.

  15. The potential impact of urban growth simulation on the long-term planning of our cities

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Waldeck, L

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available of urban growth simulation on the long-term planning of our cities 4th Biennial Conference Presented by: Dr Louis Waldeck Date: 10 October 2012 Slide 2 of 17 Why Urban Growth Simulation? ? Reduced carbon footprint ? Reduce resource consumption... of the population concentrated in cities and the opportunities to gain efficiencies, cities are the most important arena for intervention.? Maurice Strong Unabated urbanisation Quest for sustainable development What makes a city sustainable? Slide 3 of 17...

  16. Monitoring of urban growth and its related environmental impacts: Niamey case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Luigi; Tankari Dan-Badjo, Abdourahamane; De Luca, Domenico Antonio; Antonella Dino, Giovanna; Lasagna, Manuela; Spadafora, Francesco; Yadji, Guero; Konaté, Moussa

    2016-04-01

    The present contribution is about a preliminary study of the evolution of Niamey city (Niger) during last decades. Such research is part of an UNICOO project (funded by the University of Turin) and connected to the Edulink Cooperation Project (R.U.S.S.A.D.E.), a multidisciplinary project between Italy, Niger, Burkina Faso and Tchad funded on ACP- EU cooperation program in Higher Education. Recent advances in remote sensing, both in satellite hardware technology (i.e. image availability) and image processing algorithm development, provide opportunities for collection and analysis of multitemporal information on urban form and size that can be useful for policy and planning. In spite of these developments, there are also limitations to remote sensing and its application in practice. Some opportunities for, and limitations on, monitoring urban growth using remote sensing data are shown in the present contribution; moreover examples of environmental impacts of urban growth, as monitored with remote sensing, are provided. Niamey is the capital of Niger and is the first city in the country in size and economic importance. Its population increased gradually, from about 3,000 units in 1930 to about 30,000 in 1960, rising to 250,000 in 1980 and, according to estimates, to 800,000 units in 2000. Its patterns of population distribution, livelihoods, and its dominant role within the national economy of Niger make it a good representative case study for West Africa. This case study will consider the recent historical context of continued urban growth and will assess potential future impacts of settlement patterns. The rapid growth of Niamey in the last decades brought relative prosperity but it certainly affected patterns of land use within the city and the emerging urban system. After a preliminary sketch of the georesources in the city (qualitative and quantitative characterization of the surface water and groundwater, and of aggregates), an analyses of the urban growth and

  17. Urban Change: An Overview of Research and Planning Issues

    OpenAIRE

    Korcelli, P.

    1980-01-01

    Three sets of urban policy issues are identified in this paper. These relate to the growth and contraction of metropolitan areas, their changing role in the settlement systems, and their internal organization. Policy-oriented urban models are briefly reviewed. It is concluded that promising research approaches refer to: (a) innovation diffusion and urban growth cycles, (b) interurban migration and demographic change, and (c) spatial interaction within urban regions. These findings are then tr...

  18. Cells, Agents, and Support Vectors in Interaction - Modeling Urban Sprawl based on Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Techniques in a Post-Industrial Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rienow, A.; Menz, G.

    2015-12-01

    Since the beginning of the millennium, artificial intelligence techniques as cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) have been incorporated into land-system simulations to address the complex challenges of transitions in urban areas as open, dynamic systems. The study presents a hybrid modeling approach for modeling the two antagonistic processes of urban sprawl and urban decline at once. The simulation power of support vector machines (SVM), cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) are integrated into one modeling framework and applied to the largest agglomeration of Central Europe: the Ruhr. A modified version of SLEUTH (short for Slope, Land-use, Exclusion, Urban, Transport, and Hillshade) functions as the CA component. SLEUTH makes use of historic urban land-use data sets and growth coefficients for the purpose of modeling physical urban expansion. The machine learning algorithm of SVM is applied in order to enhance SLEUTH. Thus, the stochastic variability of the CA is reduced and information about the human and ecological forces driving the local suitability of urban sprawl is incorporated. Subsequently, the supported CA is coupled with the MAS ReHoSh (Residential Mobility and the Housing Market of Shrinking City Systems). The MAS models population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking regions based on interactions between household and city agents. Semi-explicit urban weights are introduced as a possibility of modeling from and to the pixel simultaneously. Three scenarios of changing housing preferences reveal the urban development of the region in terms of quantity and location. They reflect the dissemination of sustainable thinking among stakeholders versus the steady dream of owning a house in sub- and exurban areas. Additionally, the outcomes are transferred into a digital petri dish reflecting a synthetic environment with perfect conditions of growth. Hence, the generic growth elements affecting the future

  19. Policies for managing urban growth and landscape change: a key to conservation in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N., tech. ed. Bengston

    2005-01-01

    Protecting natural areas in the face of urbanization is one of the most important challenges for conservation in the 21st century. The papers in this collection examine key issues related to growth management and selected approaches to managing urban growth and minimizing its social and environmental costs. They were presented at the 2004 annual meeting of the Society...

  20. Urban Growth Dynamics in Perth, Western Australia: Using Applied Remote Sensing for Sustainable Future Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew MacLachlan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Earth observation data can provide valuable assessments for monitoring the spatial extent of (unsustainable urban growth of the world’s cities to better inform planning policy in reducing associated economic, social and environmental costs. Western Australia has witnessed rapid economic expansion since the turn of the century founded upon extensive natural resource extraction. Thus, Perth, the state capital of Western Australia, has encountered significant population and urban growth in response to the booming state economy. However, the recent economic slowdown resulted in the largest decrease in natural resource values that Western Australia has ever experienced. Here, we present multi-temporal urban expansion statistics from 1990 to 2015 for Perth, derived from Landsat imagery. Current urban estimates used for future development plans and progress monitoring of infill and density targets are based upon aggregated census data and metrics unrepresentative of actual land cover change, underestimating overall urban area. Earth observation provides a temporally consistent methodology, identifying areal urban area at higher spatial and temporal resolution than current estimates. Our results indicate that the spatial extent of the Perth Metropolitan Region has increased 45% between 1990 and 2015, over 320 km2. We highlight the applicability of earth observation data in accurately quantifying urban area for sustainable targeted planning practices.

  1. Aggregate supply and demand modeling using GIS methods for the front range urban corridor, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakas, Ahmet; Turner, Keith

    2004-07-01

    The combined use of allocation modeling and geographical information system (GIS) technologies for providing quantitative assessments of aggregate supply and demand is evaluated using representative data for the Front Range Urban Corridor (FRUC) in Colorado. The FRUC extends from the Colorado-Wyoming border to south of Colorado Springs, and includes Denver and the major urban growth regions of Colorado. In this area, aggregate demand is high and is increasing in response to population growth. Neighborhood opposition to the establishment of new pits and quarries and the depletion of many deposits are limiting aggregate supplies. Many sources are already covered by urban development or eliminated from production by zoning. Transport of aggregate by rail from distant resources may be required in the future. Two allocation-modeling procedures are tested in this study. Network analysis procedures provided within the ARC/INFO software, are unsatisfactory. Further aggregate allocation modeling used a model specifically designed for this task; a modified version of an existing Colorado School of Mines allocation model allows for more realistic market analyses. This study evaluated four scenarios. The entire region was evaluated with a scenario reflecting the current market and by a second scenario in which some existing suppliers were closed down and new potential suppliers were activated. The conditions within the Denver metropolitan area were studied before and after the introduction of three possible rail-to-truck aggregate distribution centers. GIS techniques are helpful in developing the required database to describe the Front Range Urban Corridor aggregate market conditions. GIS methods allow the digital representation of the regional road network, and the development of a distance matrix relating all suppliers and purchasers.

  2. Urban energy planning in Turku

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Christensen, Emil Maj; Große, Juliane

    prevailing urban sprawl, characterising urban development since the 1950s. The city is densifying and promoting sustainable urban develop-ment, though at a regional scale with several growth centres. Its future development is envisioned in the “Structure model 2035”, focusing on more compact urban...... development along public transport corridors. From the case report three issues arise which might be of considerable interest in a broader context of the PLEEC project: 1. Working with energy efficient regional urban structure (e.g. regarding urban sprawl) in a low density country and on a voluntary...

  3. Assessing the Impacts of Chinese Sustainable Ground Transportation on the Dynamics of Urban Growth: A Case Study of the Hangzhou Bay Bridge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Zheng

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Although China has promoted the construction of Chinese Sustainable Ground Transportation (CSGT to guide sustainable development, it may create substantial challenges, such as rapid urban growth and land limitations. This research assessed the effects of the Hangzhou Bay Bridge on impervious surface growth in Cixi County, Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, China. Changes in impervious surfaces were mapped based on Landsat images from 1995, 2002, and 2009 using a combination of multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA and landscape metrics. The results indicated that the area and density of impervious surfaces increased significantly during construction of the Hangzhou Bay Bridge (2002–2009. Additionally, the bridge and connected road networks promoted urban development along major roads, resulting in compact growth patterns of impervious surfaces in urbanized regions. Moreover, the Hangzhou Bay Bridge promoted the expansion and densification of impervious surfaces in Hangzhou Bay District, which surrounds the bridge. The bridge also accelerated socioeconomic growth in the area, promoting rapid urban growth in Cixi County between 2002 and 2009. Overall, the Hangzhou Bay Bridge is an important driver of urban growth in Cixi County, and policy suggestions for sustainable urban growth should be adopted in the future.

  4. Evaluation of the WRF-Urban Modeling System Coupled to Noah and Noah-MP Land Surface Models Over a Semiarid Urban Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salamanca, Francisco; Zhang, Yizhou; Barlage, Michael; Chen, Fei; Mahalov, Alex; Miao, Shiguang

    2018-03-01

    We have augmented the existing capabilities of the integrated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-urban modeling system by coupling three urban canopy models (UCMs) available in the WRF model with the new community Noah with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP) land surface model (LSM). The WRF-urban modeling system's performance has been evaluated by conducting six numerical experiments at high spatial resolution (1 km horizontal grid spacing) during a 15 day clear-sky summertime period for a semiarid urban environment. To assess the relative importance of representing urban surfaces, three different urban parameterizations are used with the Noah and Noah-MP LSMs, respectively, over the two major cities of Arizona: Phoenix and Tucson metropolitan areas. Our results demonstrate that Noah-MP reproduces somewhat better than Noah the daily evolution of surface skin temperature and near-surface air temperature (especially nighttime temperature) and wind speed. Concerning the urban areas, bulk urban parameterization overestimates nighttime 2 m air temperature compared to the single-layer and multilayer UCMs that reproduce more accurately the daily evolution of near-surface air temperature. Regarding near-surface wind speed, only the multilayer UCM was able to reproduce realistically the daily evolution of wind speed, although maximum winds were slightly overestimated, while both the single-layer and bulk urban parameterizations overestimated wind speed considerably. Based on these results, this paper demonstrates that the new community Noah-MP LSM coupled to an UCM is a promising physics-based predictive modeling tool for urban applications.

  5. Urban Land Expansion and Spatial Dynamics in Globalizing Shanghai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Li

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban land expansion in China has attracted considerable scholarly attention. However, more work is needed to apply spatial modeling to understanding the mechanisms of urban growth from both institutional and physical perspectives. This paper analyzes urban expansion in Shanghai and its development zones (DZs. We find that, as nodes of global-local interface, the DZs are the most significant components of urban growth in Shanghai, and major spatial patterns of urban expansion in Shanghai are infilling and edge expansion. We apply logistic regression, geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR and spatial regime regression to investigate the determinants of urban land expansion including physical conditions, state policy and land development. Regressions reveal that, though the market has been an important driving force in urban growth, the state has played a predominant role through the implementation of urban planning and the establishment of DZs to fully capitalize on globalization. We also find that differences in urban growth dynamics exist between the areas inside and outside of the DZs. Finally, this paper discusses policies to promote sustainable development in Shanghai.

  6. Low-Carbon Transportation Oriented Urban Spatial Structure: Theory, Model and Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuyao Ye

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Optimising the spatial structure of cities to promote low-carbon travel is a primary goal of urban planning and construction innovation in the low-carbon era. There is a need for basic research on the structural characteristics that help to reduce motor traffic, thereby promoting energy conservation. We first review the existing literature on the influence of urban spatial structure on transport carbon dioxide emissions and summarise the influence mechanisms. We then present two low-carbon transportation oriented patterns of urban spatial structure including the traditional walking city and the modern transit metropolis, illustrated by case studies. Furthermore, we propose an improved model Green Transportation System Oriented Development (GTOD, which is an extension of traditional transit-oriented development (TOD and includes the additional features of a walking city and an emphasis on the integration of land use with a green transportation system, consisting of the public transportation and non-auto travel system. A compact urban form, effective mix of land use and appropriate scale of block are the basic structural features of a low-carbon transportation city. However, these features are only effective at promoting low-carbon transportation when integrated with the green traffic systems. Proper integration of the urban structural system with the green space system is also required. The optimal land use/transportation integration strategy is to divide traffic corridors with wedge-shaped green spaces and limit development along the transit corridors. This strategy forms the basis of the proposed urban structural model to promote low-carbon transportation and sustainable urban growth management.

  7. Urbanisation, urban growth and planning in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Region with reference studies from Europe and the USA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    pressure. Growth management strategies are necessary to secure future balanced and sustainable development throughout the whole urban region. The analysis of urbanisation and urban growth in peri-urban areas is at the core of this study, including socio-demographic and functional dynamics, land use impacts...... and options for spatial planning. The main case was the metropolitan region of Copenhagen, Denmark. Other cases from Europe and the USA were used as reference studies. The methods included quantitative analyses of register and land use data as well as general case study work to investigate options for spatial...... planning. The study shows that, while the most visible impacts of land use changes can be found at the close urban fringe, many other dynamics have a much longer reach into the rural-urban region. In the Copenhagen metropolitan region, we can observe migration to peri-urban areas and to the urban core...

  8. A Regional Spatial-Retrofitting Approach (RSRA to Geovisualise Regional Urban Growth: An application to the Golden Horseshoe in Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Vaz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding urban change in particular for larger regions has been a great demur in both regional planning and geography. One of the main challenges has been linked to the potential of modelling urban change. The absence of spatial data and size of areas of study limit the traditional urban monitoring approaches, which also do not take into account visualization techniques that share information with the community. This is the case of the Golden Horseshoe in southern Ontario in Canada, one of the fastest growing regions in North America. An unprecedented change on the urban environment has been witnessed, leading to an increased importance of awareness for future planning in the region. With a population greater than 8 million, the Golden Horseshoe is steadily showing symptoms of becoming a mega-urban region, joining surrounding cities into a single and diversified urban landscape. However, little effort has been done to understand these changes, nor to share information with policy makers, stakeholders and investors. These players are in need of the most diverse information on urban land use, which is seldom available from a single source. The spatio-temporal effect of the growth of this urban region could very well be the birth of yet another North American megacity. Therefore, from a spatial perspective there is demand for joint collaboration and adoption of a regional science perspective including land cover and spatio-temporal configurations. This calls forth a novel technique that allows for assessment of urban and regional change, and supports decision-making without having the usual concerns of locational data availability. It is this sense, that we present a spatial-retrofitting model, with the objective of (i retrofitting spatial land use based on current land use and land cover, and assessing proportional change in the past, leading to four spatial timestamps of the Golden Horseshoe’s land use, while (ii integrating this in a

  9. Smart Mobility Stakeholders - Curating Urban Data & Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperling, Joshua [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-09-01

    This presentation provides an overview of the curation of urban data and models through engaging SMART mobility stakeholders. SMART Mobility Urban Science Efforts are helping to expose key data sets, models, and roles for the U.S. Department of Energy in engaging across stakeholders to ensure useful insights. This will help to support other Urban Science and broader SMART initiatives.

  10. Modelling and observing urban climate in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Hove, B.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Heusinkveld, B.; Holtslag, B.; Jacobs, C.; Ter Maat, H.; Elbers, J.; Moors, E.

    2011-06-01

    The main aims of the present study are: (1) to evaluate the performance of two well-known mesoscale NWP (numerical weather prediction) models coupled to a UCM (Urban Canopy Models), and (2) to develop a proper measurement strategy for obtaining meteorological data that can be used in model evaluation studies. We choose the mesoscale models WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) and RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System), respectively, because the partners in the present project have a large expertise with respect to these models. In addition WRF and RAMS have been successfully used in the meteorology and climate research communities for various purposes, including weather prediction and land-atmosphere interaction research. Recently, state-of-the-art UCM's were embedded within the land surface scheme of the respective models, in order to better represent the exchange of heat, momentum, and water vapour in the urban environment. Key questions addressed here are: What is the general model performance with respect to the urban environment?; How can useful and observational data be obtained that allow sensible validation and further parameterization of the models?; and Can the models be easily modified to simulate the urban climate under Dutch climatic conditions, urban configuration and morphology? Chapter 2 reviews the available Urban Canopy Models; we discuss their theoretical basis, the different representations of the urban environment, the required input and the output. Much of the information was obtained from the Urban Surface Energy Balance: Land Surface Scheme Comparison project (PILPS URBAN, PILPS stands for Project for Inter-comparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes). This project started in March 2008 and was coordinated by the Department of Geography, King's College London. In order to test the performance of our models we participated in this project. Chapter 3 discusses the main results of the first phase of PILPS URBAN. A first

  11. Development of urban water consumption models for the City of Los Angeles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mini, C.; Hogue, T. S.; Pincetl, S.

    2011-12-01

    Population growth and rapid urbanization coupled with uncertain climate change are causing new challenges for meeting urban water needs. In arid and semi-arid regions, increasing drought periods and decreasing precipitation have led to water supply shortages and cities are struggling with trade-offs between the water needs of growing urban populations and the well-being of urban ecosystems. The goal of the current research is to build models that can represent urban water use patterns in semi-arid cities by identifying the determinants that control both total and outdoor residential water use over the Los Angeles urban domain. The initial database contains monthly water use records aggregated to the zip code level collected from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) from 2000 to 2010. Residential water use was normalized per capita and was correlated with socio-demographic, economic, climatic and vegetation characteristics across the City for the 2000-2010 period. Results show that ethnicity, per capita income, and the average number of persons per household are linearly related to total water use per capita. Inter-annual differences in precipitation and implementation of conservation measures affect water use levels across the City. The high variability in water use patterns across the City also appears strongly influenced by income and education levels. The temporal analysis of vegetation indices in the studied neighborhoods shows little correlation between precipitation patterns and vegetation greenness. Urban vegetation appears well-watered, presenting the same greenness activity over the study period despite an overall decrease in water use across the City. We hypothesize that over-watering is occurring and that outdoor water use represents a significant part of the residential water budget in various regions of the City. A multiple regression model has been developed that integrates these fundamental controlling factors to simulate residential

  12. Modelling the impact of Water Sensitive Urban Design technologies on the urban water cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca

    Alternative stormwater management approaches for urban developments, also called Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD), are increasingly being adopted with the aims of providing flood control, flow management, water quality improvements and opportunities to harvest stormwater for non-potable uses....... To model the interaction of infiltration based WSUDs with groundwater. 4. To assess a new combination of different WSUD techniques for improved stormwater management. 5. To model the impact of a widespread implementation of multiple soakaway systems at the catchment scale. 6. Test the models by simulating...... the hydrological performance of single devices relevant for urban drainage applications. Moreover, the coupling of soakaway and detention storages is also modeled to analyze the benefits of combining different local stormwater management systems. These models are then integrated into urban drainage network models...

  13. The Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) model: quantifying urban forest structure and functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Nowak; Daniel E. Crane

    2000-01-01

    The Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) computer model was developed to help managers and researchers quantify urban forest structure and functions. The model quantifies species composition and diversity, diameter distribution, tree density and health, leaf area, leaf biomass, and other structural characteristics; hourly volatile organic compound emissions (emissions that...

  14. Capital, population and urban patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, W

    1994-04-01

    The author develops an approach to urban dynamics with endogenous capital and population growth, synthesizing the Alonso location model, the two-sector neoclassical growth model, and endogenous population theory. A dynamic model for an isolated island economy with endogenous capital, population, and residential structure is developed on the basis of Alonso's residential model and the two-sector neoclassical growth model. The model describes the interdependence between residential structure, economic growth, population growth, and economic structure over time and space. It has a unique long-run equilibrium, which may be either stable or unstable, depending upon the population dynamics. Applying the Hopf theorem, the author also shows that when the system is unstable, the economic geography exhibits permanent endogenous oscillations.

  15. Collaborative autonomous systems in models of urban logistics

    OpenAIRE

    Arango Serna, Martín Darío; Serna Uran, Conrado Augusto; Alvarez Uribe, Karla Cristina; Arango Serna, Martín Darío

    2012-01-01

    Cities growth and along with them the exchange and distribution of goods and services has led in recent years to a greater increasing interest for the optimization of logistic processes carried out in urban areas. In this article, the main approaches and solutions which have been proposed from academic research will be described, focusing mainly on collaborative autonomic logistics, which is offered as an attractive solution to the urban goods distribution problems in complex cities.

  16. Particle formation and growth at five rural and urban sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, C.-H.; Evans, G. J.; McGuire, M. L.; Chang, R. Y.-W.; Abbatt, J. P. D.; Zeromskiene, K.; Mozurkewich, M.; Li, S.-M.; Leaitch, W. R.

    2010-08-01

    Ultrafine particle (UFP) number and size distributions were simultaneously measured at five urban and rural sites during the summer of 2007 in Ontario, Canada as part of the Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met 2007). Particle formation and growth events at these five sites were classified based on their strength and persistence as well as the variation in geometric mean diameter. Regional nucleation and growth events and local short-lived strong nucleation events were frequently observed at the near-border rural sites, upwind of industrial sources. Surprisingly, the particle number concentrations at one of these sites were higher than the concentrations at a downtown site in a major city, despite its high traffic density. Regional nucleation and growth events were favored during intense solar irradiance and in less polluted cooler drier air. The most distinctive regional particle nucleation and growth event during the campaign was observed simultaneously at all five sites, which were up to 350 km apart. Although the ultrafine particle concentrations and size distributions generally were spatially heterogeneous across the region, a more uniform spatial distribution of UFP across the five areas was observed during this regional nucleation event. Thus, nucleation events can cover large regions, contributing to the burden of UFP in cities and potentially to the associated health impacts on urban populations. Local short-lived nucleation events at the three near-border sites during this summer three-week campaign were associated with high SO2, which likely originated from US and Canadian industrial sources. Hence, particle formation in southwestern Ontario appears to often be related to anthropogenic gaseous emissions but biogenic emissions at times also contribute. Longer-term studies are needed to help resolve the relative contributions of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions to nucleation and growth in this region.

  17. Analyzing Land Cover Change and Urban Growth Trajectories of the Mega-Urban Region of Dhaka Using Remotely Sensed Data and an Ensemble Classifier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Mehedy Hassan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Accurate information on, and human interpretation of, urban land cover using satellite-derived sensor imagery is critical given the intricate nature and niches of socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors occurring at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Detailed knowledge of urban land and their changing pattern over time periods associated with ecological risk is, however, required for the best use of critical land and its environmental resources. Interest in this topic has increased recently, driven by a surge in the use of open-source computing software, satellite-derived imagery, and improved classification algorithms. Using the machine learning algorithm Random Forest, combined with multi-date Landsat imagery, we classified eight periods of land cover maps with up-to-date spatial and temporal information of urban land between the period of 1972 and 2015 for the mega-urban region of greater Dhaka in Bangladesh. Random Forest—a non-parametric ensemble classifier—has shown a quantum increase in satellite-derived image classification accuracy due to its outperformance over traditional approaches, e.g., Maximum Likelihood. Employing Random Forest as an image classification approach for this study with independent cross-validation techniques, we obtained high classification accuracy, user and producer accuracy. Our overall classification accuracy ranges were between 85% and 97% with kappa values between 0.81 and 0.94. The area statistics derived from the thematic land cover map show that the built-up area in the 43-year study period expanded quickly, from 35 km2 in 1972 to 378 km2 in 2015, with a net increase rate of approximately 980% and an average annual growth rate of 6%. This growth rate, however, was higher in peripheral areas, with a 2903% increase and an annual expansion rate of 8%, compared to a 460% increase with an annual growth rate of 4% in the core city area (Dhaka City Corporation. This huge urban expansion took

  18. Estimating the Effect of Urban Growth on Annual Runoff Volume Using GIS in the Erbil Sub-Basin of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan Mohammed Hameed

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The growth and spread of impervious surfaces within urbanizing catchment areas pose signiificant threats to the quality of natural and built-up environments. Impervious surfaces prevent water infiltration into the soil, resulting in increased runoff generation. The Erbil Sub-basin was selected because the impervious cover is increasing rapidly and is affecting the hydrological condition of the watershed. The overall aim of this study is to examine the impact of urban growth and other changes in land use on runoff response during the study period of 1984 to 2014. The study describes long-term hydrologic responses within the rapidly developing catchment area of Erbil city, in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Data from six rainfall stations in and around the Erbil Sub-basin were used. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM was also used to extract the distribution of the drainage network. Historical levels of urban growth and the corresponding impervious areas, as well as land use/land cover changes were mapped from 1984 to 2014 using a temporal satellite image (Landsat to determine land use/land cover changes. Land use/land cover was combined with a hydrological model (SCS-CN to estimate the volume of runoff from the watershed. The study indicates that the urbanization of the watershed has increased the impervious land cover by 71% for the period from 1984 to 2004 and by 51% from 2004 to 2014. The volume of runoff was 85% higher in 2014 as compared to 1984 due to the increase in the impervious surface area; this is attributed to urban growth. The study also points out that the slope of the watershed in the Erbil sub-basin should be taken into account in surface runoff estimation as the upstream part of the watershed has a high gradient and the land is almost barren with very little vegetation cover; this causes an increase in the velocity of the flow and increases the risk of flooding in Erbil city.

  19. Urban economies, urban livelihoods and natural resource-based economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: the constraints of a liberalized world economy

    OpenAIRE

    Potts, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    There is much speculation today about how rapid economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa is transforming development prospects in the region. However, in terms of a broad, multi-dimensional, understanding of the term ‘development’, into which social justice must be factored, there are real concerns about whether the undoubted improvements in GDP growth in many countries are strongly connected to urban-located investment and job growth. Many African countries remain poorly placed, in terms of glo...

  20. Scale Modelling of Nocturnal Cooling in Urban Parks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spronken-Smith, R. A.; Oke, T. R.

    Scale modelling is used to determine the relative contribution of heat transfer processes to the nocturnal cooling of urban parks and the characteristic temporal and spatial variation of surface temperature. Validation is achieved using a hardware model-to-numerical model-to-field observation chain of comparisons. For the calm case, modelling shows that urban-park differences of sky view factor (s) and thermal admittance () are the relevant properties governing the park cool island (PCI) effect. Reduction in sky view factor by buildings and trees decreases the drain of longwave radiation from the surface to the sky. Thus park areas near the perimeter where there may be a line of buildings or trees, or even sites within a park containing tree clumps or individual trees, generally cool less than open areas. The edge effect applies within distances of about 2.2 to 3.5 times the height of the border obstruction, i.e., to have any part of the park cooling at the maximum rate a square park must be at least twice these dimensions in width. Although the central areas of parks larger than this will experience greater cooling they will accumulate a larger volume of cold air that may make it possible for them to initiate a thermal circulation and extend the influence of the park into the surrounding city. Given real world values of s and it seems likely that radiation and conduction play almost equal roles in nocturnal PCI development. Evaporation is not a significant cooling mechanism in the nocturnal calm case but by day it is probably critical in establishing a PCI by sunset. It is likely that conditions that favour PCI by day (tree shade, soil wetness) retard PCI growth at night. The present work, which only deals with PCI growth, cannot predict which type of park will be coolest at night. Complete specification of nocturnal PCI magnitude requires knowledge of the PCI at sunset, and this depends on daytime energetics.

  1. Impacts of compact growth and electric vehicles on future air quality and urban exposures may be mixed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Haofei; Stuart, Amy L

    2017-01-15

    'Smart' growth and electric vehicles are potential solutions to the negative impacts of worldwide urbanization on air pollution and health. However, the effects of planning strategies on distinct types of pollutants, and on human exposures, remain understudied. The goal of this work was to investigate the potential impacts of alternative urban designs for the area around Tampa, Florida USA, on emissions, ambient concentrations, and exposures to oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), 1,3-butadiene, and benzene. We studied three potential future scenarios: sprawling growth, compact growth, and 100% vehicle fleet electrification with compact growth. We projected emissions in the seven-county region to 2050 based on One Bay regional visioning plan data. We estimated pollutant concentrations in the county that contains Tampa using the CALPUFF dispersion model. We applied residential population projections to forecast acute (highest hour) and chronic (annual average) exposure. The compact scenario was projected to result in lower regional emissions of all pollutants than sprawl, with differences of -18%, -3%, and -14% for NO x , butadiene, and benzene, respectively. Within Hillsborough County, the compact form also had lower emissions, concentrations, and exposures than sprawl for NO x (-16%/-5% for acute/chronic exposures, respectively), but higher exposures for butadiene (+41%/+30%) and benzene (+21%/+9%). The addition of complete vehicle fleet electrification to the compact scenario mitigated these in-county increases for the latter pollutants, lowering predicted exposures to butadiene (-25%/-39%) and benzene (-5%/-19%), but also resulted in higher exposures to NO x (+81%/+30%) due to increased demand on power plants. These results suggest that compact forms may have mixed impacts on exposures and health. 'Smart' urban designs should consider multiple pollutants and the diverse mix of pollutant sources. Cleaner power generation will also likely be needed to support aggressive

  2. [Puebla: the contradictions of growth and urban planning in the nineties].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Mendoza, S; Rojas Bonilla, J L; Vazquez Lopez, J

    1991-12-01

    A series of questions and observations are presented relating to urban problems resulting from demographic growth and economic development in the city of Puebla, Mexico. Although the date used are primarily for the city of Puebla, the metropolitan conurbation in its totality should be the true focus of study. The major problems in the city of Puebla result from the inability of market forces to satisfy growing needs for employment, housing, and transport, and from limitations on the ability of the municipal administration to provide and improve the public services demanded by the population. If the metropolitan area is not viewed as a whole, there is a great risk that uncontrolled growth will continue while problems in the conurbation will be underestimated. Puebla's most rapid period of growth occurred in the 1960s, when significant development took place in manufacturing. An inventory of proposed solutions to problems of urban development and social welfare in Puebla was conducted using data from the Development Plan of the state of Puebla for 1987-93 and reports of the state government and of municipal government programs for 1987-1990 and 1990-1993. The various plans mention 281 separate proposals, 218 actions, and 16 strategies. Severe financial limitations and technical and conceptual shortcomings however will probably prevent many from being implemented. Among the persisting problems in Puebla that have been recognized but are likely to worsen are the 38% deficit of drinking water and 30% loss through leakage and waste; the lack of water treatment and inadequate capacity of the sewage system and the failure to operate 7 existing water treatment plants because of the high cost; the lack of solid waste disposal facilities and existence of only 1 landfill that receives only 32% of the 1450 tons of solid waste produced daily; the lack of paved roads and failure to maintain existing roads, and poor planning and inadequacy of public transportation routes. The

  3. Understanding complex urban systems multidisciplinary approaches to modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Gurr, Jens; Schmidt, J

    2014-01-01

    Understanding Complex Urban Systems takes as its point of departure the insight that the challenges of global urbanization and the complexity of urban systems cannot be understood – let alone ‘managed’ – by sectoral and disciplinary approaches alone. But while there has recently been significant progress in broadening and refining the methodologies for the quantitative modeling of complex urban systems, in deepening the theoretical understanding of cities as complex systems, or in illuminating the implications for urban planning, there is still a lack of well-founded conceptual thinking on the methodological foundations and the strategies of modeling urban complexity across the disciplines. Bringing together experts from the fields of urban and spatial planning, ecology, urban geography, real estate analysis, organizational cybernetics, stochastic optimization, and literary studies, as well as specialists in various systems approaches and in transdisciplinary methodologies of urban analysis, the volum...

  4. Particle growth in an isoprene-rich forest: Influences of urban, wildfire, and biogenic air masses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunsch, Matthew J.; Schmidt, Stephanie A.; Gardner, Daniel J.; Bondy, Amy L.; May, Nathaniel W.; Bertman, Steven B.; Pratt, Kerri A.; Ault, Andrew P.

    2018-04-01

    Growth of freshly nucleated particles is an important source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and has been studied within a variety of environments around the world. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the sources of the precursor gases leading to particle growth, particularly in isoprene-rich forests. In this study, particle growth events were observed from the 14 total events (31% of days) during summer measurements (June 24 - August 2, 2014) at the Program for Research on Oxidants PHotochemistry, Emissions, and Transport (PROPHET) tower within the forested University of Michigan Biological Station located in northern Michigan. Growth events were observed within long-range transported air masses from urban areas, air masses impacted by wildfires, as well as stagnant, forested/regional air masses. Growth events observed during urban-influenced air masses were prevalent, with presumably high oxidant levels, and began midday during periods of high solar radiation. This suggests that increased oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) likely contributed to the highest observed particle growth in this study (8 ± 2 nm h-1). Growth events during wildfire-influenced air masses were observed primarily at night and had slower growth rates (3 ± 1 nm h-1). These events were likely influenced by increased SO2, O3, and NO2 transported within the smoke plumes, suggesting a role of NO3 oxidation in the production of semi-volatile compounds. Forested/regional air mass growth events likely occurred due to the oxidation of regionally emitted BVOCs, including isoprene, monoterpenes, and sesquiterpenes, which facilitated multiday growth events also with slower rates (3 ± 2 nm h-1). Intense sulfur, carbon, and oxygen signals in individual particles down to 20 nm, analyzed by transmission electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (TEM-EDX), suggest that H2SO4 and secondary organic aerosol contributed to particle growth. Overall, aerosol

  5. Analyzing the Effects of Spatial Interaction among City Clusters on Urban Growth—Case of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronghui Tan

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available For the past two decades, China’s urbanization has attracted increasing attention from scholars around the world. Numerous insightful studies have attempted to determine the socioeconomic causes of the rapid urban growth in Chinese cities. However, most of these studies regarded each city as a single entity, with few considering inter-city relationships. The present study uses a gravity-based model to measure the spatial interaction among city clusters in the Wuhan urban agglomeration (WUA, which is one of China’s most rapidly urbanizing regions. The effects of spatial interaction on urban growth area were also analyzed. Empirical results indicate that, similar to urban population or employment in secondary and tertiary industries in the WUA from 2000 to 2005, the spatial interaction among city clusters is one of the main drivers of urban growth. In fact, this study finds the effects of spatial interaction as the only socioeconomic factor that affected the spatial expansion from 2005 to 2010. This finding suggests that population migration and information and commodity flows showed greater influence than the socioeconomic drivers of each city did on promoting urbanization in the WUA during this period. We thus argue that spatial interaction among city clusters should be a consideration in future regional planning.

  6. Urban flood simulation based on the SWMM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Jiang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available China is the nation with the fastest urbanization in the past decades which has caused serious urban flooding. Flood forecasting is regarded as one of the important flood mitigation methods, and is widely used in catchment flood mitigation, but is not widely used in urban flooding mitigation. This paper, employing the SWMM model, one of the widely used urban flood planning and management models, simulates the urban flooding of Dongguan City in the rapidly urbanized southern China. SWMM is first set up based on the DEM, digital map and underground pipeline network, then parameters are derived based on the properties of the subcatchment and the storm sewer conduits; the parameter sensitivity analysis shows the parameter robustness. The simulated results show that with the 1-year return period precipitation, the studied area will have no flooding, but for the 2-, 5-, 10- and 20-year return period precipitation, the studied area will be inundated. The results show the SWMM model is promising for urban flood forecasting, but as it has no surface runoff routing, the urban flooding could not be forecast precisely.

  7. Urban eco-efficiency and system dynamics modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hradil, P., Email: petr.hradil@vtt.fi

    2012-06-15

    Assessment of urban development is generally based on static models of economic, social or environmental impacts. More advanced dynamic models have been used mostly for prediction of population and employment changes as well as for other macro-economic issues. This feasibility study was arranged to test the potential of system dynamic modelling in assessing eco-efficiency changes during urban development. (orig.)

  8. Economic Growth and Expansion of China’s Urban Land Area: Evidence from Administrative Data and Night Lights, 1993–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Gibson

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between economic growth, expansion of urban land area and the broader issue of cultivated land conversion in China has been closely examined for the late 1980s and 1990s. Much less is known about recent urban expansion and if the effects of economic growth on this expansion have changed over time. This paper updates estimates of urban expansion for China and examines the relationship with city economic growth for 1993–2012. To see if patterns are robust to different types of evidence, administrative data on the area of 225 urban cores are compared to estimates of brightly lit areas from remotely sensed night lights. The trend annual expansion rate in lit area is 8% and was significantly faster in the decade to 2002 than in the most recent decade. Expansion is slower according to administrative data, at just 5% per annum, with no change in unconditional expansion rates between decades, while conditional expansion rates have declined. The elasticity of area with respect to city economic output is about 0.3. Over time, expansion of urban land area is becoming less responsive to the growth of the local non-agricultural population.

  9. Monitoring the trajectory of urban nighttime light hotspots using a Gaussian volume model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Qiming; Jiang, Ruowei; Wang, Ke; Huang, Lingyan; Ye, Ziran; Gan, Muye; Ji, Biyong

    2018-03-01

    Urban nighttime light hotspot is an ideal representation of the spatial heterogeneity of human activities within a city, which is sensitive to regional urban expansion pattern. However, most of previous studies related to nighttime light imageries focused on extracting urban extent, leaving the spatial variation of radiance intensity insufficiently explored. With the help of global radiance calibrated DMSP-OLS datasets (NTLgrc), we proposed an innovative framework to explore the spatio-temporal trajectory of polycentric urban nighttime light hotspots. Firstly, NTLgrc was inter-annually calibrated to improve the consistency. Secondly, multi-resolution segmentation and region-growing SVM classification were employed to remove blooming effect and to extract potential clusters. At last, the urban hotspots were identified by a Gaussian volume model, and the resulting parameters were used to quantitatively depict hotspot features (i.e., intensity, morphology and centroid dynamics). The result shows that our framework successfully captures hotspots in polycentric urban area, whose Ra2 are over 0.9. Meanwhile, the spatio-temporal dynamics of the hotspot features intuitively reveal the impact of the regional urban growth pattern and planning strategies on human activities. Compared to previous studies, our framework is more robust and offers an effective way to describe hotspot pattern. Also, it provides a more comprehensive and spatial-explicit understanding regarding the interaction between urbanization pattern and human activities. Our findings are expected to be beneficial to governors in term of sustainable urban planning and decision making.

  10. URBANIZATION EFFECTS ON TREE GROWTH IN THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK CITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plants in urban ecosystems are exposed to many pollutants and higher temperatures, CO2 and nitrogen deposition than plants in rural areas. Although each factor has a detrimental or beneficial influence on plant growth, the net effect of all factors and the key driving variables a...

  11. A technical review of urban land use - transportation models as tools for evaluating vehicle travel reduction strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.

    1995-07-01

    The continued growth of highway traffic in the United States has led to unwanted urban traffic congestion as well as to noticeable urban air quality problems. These problems include emissions covered by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) and 1991 Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA), as well as carbon dioxide and related {open_quotes}greenhouse gas{close_quotes} emissions. Urban travel also creates a major demand for imported oil. Therefore, for economic as well as environmental reasons, transportation planning agencies at both the state and metropolitan area level are focussing a good deal of attention on urban travel reduction policies. Much discussed policy instruments include those that encourage fewer trip starts, shorter trip distances, shifts to higher-occupancy vehicles or to nonvehicular modes, and shifts in the timing of trips from the more to the less congested periods of the day or week. Some analysts have concluded that in order to bring about sustainable reductions in urban traffic volumes, significant changes will be necessary in the way our households and businesses engage in daily travel. Such changes are likely to involve changes in the ways we organize and use traffic-generating and-attracting land within our urban areas. The purpose of this review is to evaluate the ability of current analytic methods and models to support both the evaluation and possibly the design of such vehicle travel reduction strategies, including those strategies involving the reorganization and use of urban land. The review is organized into three sections. Section 1 describes the nature of the problem we are trying to model, Section 2 reviews the state of the art in operational urban land use-transportation simulation models, and Section 3 provides a critical assessment of such models as useful urban transportation planning tools. A number of areas are identified where further model development or testing is required.

  12. What drives health care expenditure?--Baumol's model of 'unbalanced growth' revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartwig, Jochen

    2008-05-01

    The share of health care expenditure in GDP rises rapidly in virtually all OECD countries, causing increasing concern among politicians and the general public. Yet, economists have to date failed to reach an agreement on what the main determinants of this development are. This paper revisits Baumol's [Baumol, W.J., 1967. Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth: the anatomy of urban crisis. American Economic Review 57 (3), 415-426] model of 'unbalanced growth', showing that the latter offers a ready explanation for the observed inexorable rise in health care expenditure. The main implication of Baumol's model in this context is that health care expenditure is driven by wage increases in excess of productivity growth. This hypothesis is tested empirically using data from a panel of 19 OECD countries. Our tests yield robust evidence in favor of Baumol's theory.

  13. Urban Hydrology and Water Quality Modeling - Resolution Modeling Comparison for Water Quantity and Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fry, T. J.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Urbanization presents challenging water resource problems for communities worldwide. The hydromodifications associated with urbanization results in increased runoff rates and volumes and increased peak flows. These hydrologic changes can lead to increased erosion and stream destabilization, decreased evapotranspiration, decreased ground water recharge, increases in pollutant loading, and localized anthropogenic climate change or Urban Heat Islands. Stormwater represents a complex and dynamic component of the urban water cycle that requires careful mitigation. With the implementation of Phase II rules under the CWA, stormwater management is shifting from a drainage-efficiency focus to a natural systems focus. The natural system focus, referred to as Low Impact Development (LID), or Green Infrastructure, uses best management practices (BMPs) to reduce the impacts caused by urbanization hydromodification. Large-scale patterns of stormwater runoff from urban environments are complex and it is unclear what the large-scale impacts of green infrastructure are on the water cycle. High resolution physically based hydrologic models can be used to more accurately simulate the urban hydrologic cycle. These types of models tend to be more dynamic and allow for greater flexibility in evaluating and accounting for various hydrologic processes in the urban environment that may be lost with lower resolution conceptual models. We propose to evaluate the effectiveness of high resolution models to accurately represent and determine the urban hydrologic cycle with the overall goal of being able to accurately assess the impacts of LID BMPs in urban environments. We propose to complete a rigorous model intercomparison between ParFlow and FLO-2D. Both of these models can be scaled to higher resolutions, allow for rainfall to be spatially and temporally input, and solve the shallow water equations. Each model is different in the way it accounts for infiltration, initial abstraction losses

  14. The Challenge of Forecasting Metropolitan Growth: Urban Characteristics Based Models versus Regional Dummy Based Models

    OpenAIRE

    NA

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a study of errors in forecasting the population of Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the Primary MSAs of Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas and New England MAs. The forecasts are for the year 2000 and are based on a semi-structural model estimated by Mills and Lubelle using 1970 to 1990 census data on population, employment and relative real wages. This model allows the testing of regional effects on population and employment growth. The year 2000 forecasts are f...

  15. Overview of urban growth simulation: With examples of results from three SA cities

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Waldeck, L

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This presentation provides an overview of Urban Growth Simulation as a risk free means of assessing the future outcome of major policy and investment decisions with some examples of scenarios that were simulated in different South African cities...

  16. Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnikov, N.B.; O'Neill, B.C.; Dalton, M.G.

    2012-01-01

    We describe and evaluate a new method of aggregating heterogeneous households that allows for the representation of changing demographic composition in a multi-sector economic growth model. The method is based on a utility and labor supply calibration that takes into account time variations in demographic characteristics of the population. We test the method using the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model by comparing energy and emissions projections employing the aggregate representation of households to projections representing different household types explicitly. Results show that the difference between the two approaches in terms of total demand for energy and consumption goods is negligible for a wide range of model parameters. Our approach allows the effects of population aging, urbanization, and other forms of compositional change on energy demand and CO 2 emissions to be estimated and compared in a computationally manageable manner using a representative household under assumptions and functional forms that are standard in economic growth models.

  17. Modeling The Urban Impact On Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study In Marrakesh, Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Messouli, Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

  18. Modeling the Urban Impact on Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study in Marrakech, Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Moussouli, Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

  19. Responses of herbaceous plants to urban air pollution: Effects on growth, phenology and leaf surface characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honour, Sarah L.; Bell, J. Nigel B.; Ashenden, Trevor W.; Cape, J. Neil; Power, Sally A.

    2009-01-01

    Vehicle exhaust emissions are a dominant feature of urban environments and are widely believed to have detrimental effects on plants. The effects of diesel exhaust emissions on 12 herbaceous species were studied with respect to growth, flower development, leaf senescence and leaf surface wax characteristics. A diesel generator was used to produce concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) representative of urban conditions, in solardome chambers. Annual mean NO x concentrations ranged from 77 nl l -l to 98 nl l -1 , with NO:NO 2 ratios of 1.4-2.2, providing a good experimental simulation of polluted roadside environments. Pollutant exposure resulted in species-specific changes in growth and phenology, with a consistent trend for accelerated senescence and delayed flowering. Leaf surface characteristics were also affected; contact angle measurements indicated changes in surface wax structure following pollutant exposure. The study demonstrated clearly the potential for realistic levels of vehicle exhaust pollution to have direct adverse effects on urban vegetation. - Fumigation experiments demonstrate adverse effects of exhaust emissions on urban vegetation

  20. Monitoring the Urban Tree Cover for Urban Ecosystem Services - The Case of Leipzig, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banzhaf, E.; Kollai, H.

    2015-04-01

    Urban dynamics such as (extreme) growth and shrinkage bring about fundamental challenges for urban land use and related changes. In order to achieve a sustainable urban development, it is crucial to monitor urban green infrastructure at microscale level as it provides various urban ecosystem services in neighbourhoods, supporting quality of life and environmental health. We monitor urban trees by means of a multiple data set to get a detailed knowledge on its distribution and change over a decade for the entire city. We have digital orthophotos, a digital elevation model and a digital surface model. The refined knowledge on the absolute height above ground helps to differentiate tree tops. Grounded on an object-based image analysis scheme a detailed mapping of trees in an urbanized environment is processed. Results show high accuracy of tree detection and avoidance of misclassification due to shadows. The study area is the City of Leipzig, Germany. One of the leading German cities, it is home to contiguous community allotments that characterize the configuration of the city. Leipzig has one of the most well-preserved floodplain forests in Europe.

  1. Combining multimedia models with integrated urban water system models for micropollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Keyser, W.; Gevaert, V.; Verdonck, F.

    2009-01-01

    Integrated urban water system (IUWS) modelling aims at assessing the quality of the surface water receiving the urban emissions through sewage treatment plants, combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and stormwater drainage systems. However, some micropollutants have the tendency to occur in more than one...... environmental medium. In this work, a multimedia fate and transport model (MFTM) is “wrapped around” a dynamic IUWS model for organic micropollutants to enable integrated environmental assessment. The combined model was tested on a hypothetical catchment using two scenarios: a reference scenario...... and a stormwater infiltration pond scenario, as an example of a sustainable urban drainage system (SUDS). A case for Bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) was simulated and resulted in a reduced surface water concentration for the latter scenario. However, the model also showed that this was at the expense...

  2. Sprawl and mega-events: Economic growth and recent urban expansion in a city losing its competitive edge (Athens, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Salvati

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In the new context of contemporary cities, local competitiveness for financial resources has grown more than ever, resulting in cities characterised by important socioeconomic transformations. Earlier studies addressed the relation between urban expansion, socioeconomic development and mega-events only for specific areas and types of urban growth, often overlooking the role of mega-events in fuelling urban sprawl. As the host of the 2004 Olympic Games, Athens, Greece is a paradigmatic example for emerging cities hosting mega-events due to the close interconnection between the Olympics, infrastructure development and urban sprawl. This article connects the latent relationship between economic expansion driven by the Olympic Games and laissez-faire urbanism to the long-term unregulated urban expansion characterising Athens’s development. By providing room for the original wave of sprawl, the resulting socioeconomic context is interpreted as a signal of the weakness of the “competitive city” framework in poorly planned and long-deregulated urban contexts such as Athens. A comprehensive analysis of recent phases of economic growth and discontinuous urban expansion thus provides further insight into understanding sprawl processes in today’s cities, and helps distinguish the morphological patterns and socioeconomic dynamics that characterise urban expansion during sequential cycles of economic expansion and recession.

  3. Coping with Migration-Induced Urban Growth: Addressing the Blind Spot of UN Habitat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Aerni

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The demography of cities in the 21st century will be shaped, to a large extent, by migration. This paper argues that the rights-based approach to urban policy advocated in the preparatory work of Habitat III, the UN Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development to be held in October 2016 in Quito, Ecuador, may not be conducive to this goal. The approach lacks a contextual and dynamic understanding of urbanization. It implicitly assumes that a growing and expansive urban economy would primarily benefit the rich and harm the poor. The resulting containment policies to stop “urban sprawl” and defend “the right to the city” can, however, be counterproductive if adopted in cities in less developed countries (LDCs that grow fast due to internal migration. Attempts to limit urban growth may merely lead to more informal settlements, less affordable housing, and increasing costs of doing business. In other words, it may benefit the rich and harm the poor. LDCs should, therefore, refrain from adopting defensive urban policies mostly advocated by more developed countries (MDCs and, instead, plan for sustainable urban expansion designed to improve access to essential urban services and to create a level playing field for newcomers in business. In this context, urban policies may build upon the basic insights of the late urbanist Jane Jacobs. She recognized that the vital function of cities is to provide affordable infrastructure and an institutional environment that enable migrants and other marginal urban communities to contribute to urban prosperity and problem-solving with their skills, networks, and entrepreneurial minds. The resulting social and economic empowerment increases access to essential human rights and ensures that cities become more inclusive, resilient, and sustainable.

  4. Integrated city as a model for a new wave urban tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariani, V.

    2018-03-01

    Cities are a major player for an urban tourism destination. Massive tourism movement for urban tourism gains competitiveness to the city with similar characteristic. The new framework model for new wave urban tourism is crucial to give more experience to the tourist and valuing for the city itself. The integrated city is the answer for creating a new model for an urban tourism destination. The purpose of this preliminary research is to define integrated city framework for urban tourism development. It provides a rationale for tourism planner pursuing an innovative approach, competitive advantages, and general urban tourism destination model. The methodology applies to this research includes desk survey, literature review and focus group discussion. A conceptual framework is proposed, discussed and exemplified. The framework model adopts a place-based approach to tourism destination and suggests an integrated city model for urban tourism development. This model is a tool for strategy making in re-invention integrated city as an urban tourism destination.

  5. Accessing on the sustainability of urban ecological-economic systems by means of a coupled emergy and system dynamics model: A case study of Beijing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Wei; An, Haizhong; Li, Huajiao; Gao, Xiangyun; Sun, Xiaoqi; Zhong, Weiqiong

    2017-01-01

    Due to high population densities and rapid economic development, great number of cities worldwide rely heavily on external resources, and many are experiencing serious environmental pollution. Municipal governments are facing the issue of balancing the relationship between economic growth and environmental preservation. An urban system is an open, complex, dynamic ecological-economic system with different types of materials and resources. This paper combines emergy theory and System Dynamics (SD) and establishes an emergy-flow SD model of an urban eco-economic system that includes economic, population, waste and emergy sub-models. Three scenarios with different economic growth rates and investments in environmental preservation are designed to analyze the sustainable development capacity of Beijing under different scenarios. The results of the analysis show that current economic development in Beijing highly depends on resources consumption, especially the consumption of imported resources. Based on the current growth rate, development in Beijing will heavily depend on external resources that may make the system being more fragile in the future. A lower economic growth rate and a small increase in environmental preservation investment are more suitable for in Beijing than area higher economic growth rate and a large increase in environmental preservation investment. - Highlights: • A Systems Dynamics model simulating urban emergy flows is set up. • Current economic development of Beijing depends on high consumption of resources. • Beijing has extreme and increasing dependence on external resources. • Beijing relies heavily on nonrenewable resources and its development is unsustainable. • Low GDP growth is better than high GDP growth with increased environmental investment.

  6. Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gerard H. E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

  7. Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gérard H. E.

    2009-04-01

    In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

  8. Informal Urban Development in Cairo

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steinø, Nicolai; Petersen, Mads Dines

    2017-01-01

    The city of Cairo, Egypt, currently experiences rapid urban growth. Large parts of the city expand without formal urban planning. This results in large-scale informal and unplanned development. In addition, the resulting urban fabric and individual buildings feature severe deficiencies when...... it comes to the basic quality of urban space, ventilation and daylight. While retrofitting already built-up areas would be a huge challenge, some minor improvements might be possible in future development even within the current mode of production of these spaces. In recent years, parametric design tools...... have opened up new possibilities for modelling in urban design. By way of a parametric design approach, different urban design parameters can be modified and new urban space scenarios can be rendered three dimensionally in almost real time. In short, this is parametric urban design. It opens up...

  9. Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volker C. Radeloff; David P. Helmers; H. Anu Kramer; Miranda H. Mockrin; Patricia M. Alexandre; Avi Bar-Massada; Van Butsic; Todd J. Hawbaker; Sebastián Martinuzzi; Alexandra D. Syphard; Susan I. Stewart

    2018-01-01

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle, and where wildfire problems are most pronounced. Here we report that the WUI in the United States grew rapidly from 1990 to 2010 in terms of both number of new houses (from 30.8 to 43.4 million; 41% growth) and land area (from 581,000 to 770,000 km2...

  10. The implementation of biofiltration systems, rainwater tanks and urban irrigation in a single-layer urban canopy model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demuzere, Matthias; Coutts, Andrew; Goehler, Maren; Broadbent, Ashley; Wouters, Hendrik; van Lipzig, Nicole; Gebert, Luke

    2015-04-01

    Urban vegetation is generally considered as a key tool to modify the urban energy balance through enhanced evapotranspiration (ET). Given that vegetation is most effective when it is healthy, stormwater harvesting and retention strategies (such as water sensitive urban design) could be used to support vegetation and promote ET. This study presents the implementation of a vegetated lined bio-filtration system (BFS) combined with a rainwater tank (RWT) and urban irrigation system in the single-layer urban canopy model Community Land Model-Urban. Runoff from roof and impervious road surface fractions is harvested and used to support an adequate soil moisture level for vegetation in the BFS. In a first stage, modelled soil moisture dynamics are evaluated and found reliable compared to observed soil moisture levels from biofiltration pits in Smith Street, Melbourne (Australia). Secondly, the impact of BFS, RWT and urban irrigation on ET is illustrated for a two-month period in 2012 using varying characteristics for all components. Results indicate that (i) a large amount of stormwater is potentially available for indoor and outdoor water demands, including irrigation of urban vegetation, (ii) ET from the BFS is an order of magnitude larger compared to the contributions from the impervious surfaces, even though the former only covers 10% of the surface fraction and (iii) attention should be paid to the cover fraction and soil texture of the BFS, size of the RWT and the surface fractions contributing to the collection of water in the RWT. Overall, this study reveals that this model development can effectuate future research with state-of-the-art urban climate models to further explore the benefits of vegetated biofiltration systems as a water sensitive urban design tool optimised with an urban irrigation system to maintain healthy vegetation.

  11. Population growth and rural-urban migration, with special reference to Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Graft-johnson, K T

    1974-01-01

    but that once people decide to migrate, they base their choice of destination primarily on economic opportunities available at that end. Distance bears little relationship to choice of destination. To stem this tide efforts need to be made to increase rural income, provide employment opportunities for those displaced as agriculture becomes more efficient, and to provide for greater amenities in rural areas. Urban unemployment is an ever-increasing problem, accentuated by population growth and migration. Intensive rural development is needed to reverse this trend.

  12. Geospatial scenario based modelling of urban and agricultural intrusions in Ramsar wetland Deepor Beel in Northeast India using a multi-layer perceptron neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mozumder, Chitrini; Tripathi, Nitin K.

    2014-10-01

    In recent decades, the world has experienced unprecedented urban growth which endangers the green environment in and around urban areas. In this work, an artificial neural network (ANN) based model is developed to predict future impacts of urban and agricultural expansion on the uplands of Deepor Beel, a Ramsar wetland in the city area of Guwahati, Assam, India, by 2025 and 2035 respectively. Simulations were carried out for three different transition rates as determined from the changes during 2001-2011, namely simple extrapolation, Markov Chain (MC), and system dynamic (SD) modelling, using projected population growth, which were further investigated based on three different zoning policies. The first zoning policy employed no restriction while the second conversion restriction zoning policy restricted urban-agricultural expansion in the Guwahati Municipal Development Authority (GMDA) proposed green belt, extending to a third zoning policy providing wetland restoration in the proposed green belt. The prediction maps were found to be greatly influenced by the transition rates and the allowed transitions from one class to another within each sub-model. The model outputs were compared with GMDA land demand as proposed for 2025 whereby the land demand as produced by MC was found to best match the projected demand. Regarding the conservation of Deepor Beel, the Landscape Development Intensity (LDI) Index revealed that wetland restoration zoning policies may reduce the impact of urban growth on a local scale, but none of the zoning policies was found to minimize the impact on a broader base. The results from this study may assist the planning and reviewing of land use allocation within Guwahati city to secure ecological sustainability of the wetlands.

  13. Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Sorensen, Jens Havskov; Hoe, Steen Cordt; Amstrup, Bjarne

    2006-01-01

    The main objectives of the current EU project 'Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure' (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Oresund region. The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision-support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA). Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI

  14. Modeling Math Growth Trajectory--An Application of Conventional Growth Curve Model and Growth Mixture Model to ECLS K-5 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yi

    2016-01-01

    To model students' math growth trajectory, three conventional growth curve models and three growth mixture models are applied to the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study Kindergarten-Fifth grade (ECLS K-5) dataset in this study. The results of conventional growth curve model show gender differences on math IRT scores. When holding socio-economic…

  15. 3D Urban Virtual Models generation methodology for smart cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Álvarez

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Currently the use of Urban 3D Models goes beyond the mere support of three-dimensional image for the visualization of our urban surroundings. The three-dimensional Urban Models are in themselves fundamental tools to manage the different phenomena that occur in smart cities. It is therefore necessary to generate realistic models, in which BIM building design information can be integrated with GIS and other space technologies. The generation of 3D Urban Models benefit from the amount of data from sensors with the latest technologies such as airborne sensors and of the existence of international standards such as CityGML. This paper presents a methodology for the development of a three - dimensional Urban Model, based on LiDAR data and the CityGML standard, applied to the city of Lorca.

  16. Characterization Urban Heat Island Effect and Modelling of Secondary Pollutant Formations at Urban Hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Undi, G. S. N. V. K. S. N. S.

    2017-12-01

    More than 60 percent of the world population is living the urban zones by 2020. This socio of economic transformations will bring considerable changes to the ambient atmosphere. More than 70 percent of the air pollutants in the urban hotspots are from vehicular emissions. in the urban hotspots. In the urban hotspots, the meteorological and dispersion conditions will have different characteristics than in surrounding rural areas. Reactive pollutants transformations are drastically influenced by the local meteorological conditions. The complexity of urban structure alters the pollutants dispersion in the hotspots. This relationship between urban meteorology and air pollution is an important aspect of consideration. In the atmosphere, drastic changes have been noticed from micro to regional and global scales. However, the characteristics of air pollutant emissions vary with time and space, favorable dispersion conditions transport them from local to regional scale. In the present study, the impact of land cover change on Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) has been characterized by considering the three different zones with varying land use patterns. An attempt has been made to estimate the impact of UHI on secondary pollutants (O3) transformations. Envi-Met model has been used to characterize the UHI intensity for the selected zones. Meteorological and air quality measurements were carried out at the selected locations. The diurnal variations of Ozone (O3) concentration for three zones are correlated with the UHI intensity. And the monitoring and model results of O3 concentrations are in good agreement. It is observed from the obtained model results that the metrological parameters influence on local air quality is significant in urban zones.

  17. Modeling urban building energy use: A review of modeling approaches and procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Wenliang; Zhou, Yuyu; Cetin, Kristen; Eom, Jiyong; Wang, Yu; Chen, Gang; Zhang, Xuesong

    2017-12-01

    With rapid urbanization and economic development, the world has been experiencing an unprecedented increase in energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions is a common interest shared by major developed and developing countries, actions to enable these global reductions are generally implemented at the city scale. This is because baseline information from individual cities plays an important role in identifying economical options for improving building energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions. Numerous approaches have been proposed for modeling urban building energy use in the past decades. This paper aims to provide an up-to-date review of the broad categories of energy models for urban buildings and describes the basic workflow of physics-based, bottom-up models and their applications in simulating urban-scale building energy use. Because there are significant differences across models with varied potential for application, strengths and weaknesses of the reviewed models are also presented. This is followed by a discussion of challenging issues associated with model preparation and calibration.

  18. Combining multimedia models with integrated urban water system models for micropollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Keyser, W.; Gevaert, V.; Verdonck, F.

    2010-01-01

    Integrated urban water system (IUWS) modeling aims at assessing the quality of the surface water receiving the urban emissions through sewage treatment plants, combined sewer overflows (CSOS) and stormwater drainage systems However, some micropollutants tend to appear in more than one environmental...... medium (air, water, sediment, soil, groundwater, etc) In this work, a multimedia fate and transport model (MFTM) is "wrapped around" a dynamic IUWS model for organic micropollutants to enable integrated environmental assessment The combined model was tested on a hypothetical catchment using two scenarios...... on the one hand a reference scenario with a combined sewerage system and on the other hand a stormwater infiltration pond scenario, as an example of a sustainable urban drainage system (SUDS) A case for Bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) was simulated and resulted in reduced surface water concentrations...

  19. Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radeloff, Volker C; Helmers, David P; Kramer, H Anu; Mockrin, Miranda H; Alexandre, Patricia M; Bar-Massada, Avi; Butsic, Van; Hawbaker, Todd J; Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Syphard, Alexandra D; Stewart, Susan I

    2018-03-27

    The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle, and where wildfire problems are most pronounced. Here we report that the WUI in the United States grew rapidly from 1990 to 2010 in terms of both number of new houses (from 30.8 to 43.4 million; 41% growth) and land area (from 581,000 to 770,000 km 2 ; 33% growth), making it the fastest-growing land use type in the conterminous United States. The vast majority of new WUI areas were the result of new housing (97%), not related to an increase in wildland vegetation. Within the perimeter of recent wildfires (1990-2015), there were 286,000 houses in 2010, compared with 177,000 in 1990. Furthermore, WUI growth often results in more wildfire ignitions, putting more lives and houses at risk. Wildfire problems will not abate if recent housing growth trends continue.

  20. Land cover change impact on urban flood modeling (case study: Upper Citarum watershed)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, R. I.

    2018-03-01

    The upper Citarum River watershed utilizes remote sensing technology in Geographic Information System to provide information on land coverage by interpretation of objects in the image. Rivers that pass through urban areas will cause flooding problems causing disadvantages, and it disrupts community activities in the urban area. Increased development in a city is related to an increase in the number of population growth that added by increasing quality and quantity of life necessities. Improved urban lifestyle changes have an impact on land cover. The impact in over time will be difficult to control. This study aims to analyze the condition of flooding in urban areas caused by upper Citarum watershed land-use change in 2001 with the land cover change in 2010. This modeling analyzes with the help of HEC-RAS to describe flooded inundation urban areas. Land cover change in upper Citarum watershed is not very significant; it based on the results of data processing of land cover has the difference of area that changed is not enormous. Land cover changes for the floods increased dramatically to a flow coefficient for 2001 is 0.65 and in 2010 at 0.69. In 2001, the inundation area about 105,468 hectares and it were about 92,289 hectares in 2010.

  1. Reserch on Urban Spatial Expansion Model Based on Multi-Object Gray Decision-Making and Ca: a Case Study of Pidu District, Chengdu City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Li, Y.

    2018-04-01

    This paper from the perspective of the Neighbor cellular space, Proposed a new urban space expansion model based on a new multi-objective gray decision and CA. The model solved the traditional cellular automata conversion rules is difficult to meet the needs of the inner space-time analysis of urban changes and to overcome the problem of uncertainty in the combination of urban drivers and urban cellular automata. At the same time, the study takes Pidu District as a research area and carries out urban spatial simulation prediction and analysis, and draws the following conclusions: (1) The design idea of the urban spatial expansion model proposed in this paper is that the urban driving factor and the neighborhood function are tightly coupled by the multi-objective grey decision method based on geographical conditions. The simulation results show that the simulation error of urban spatial expansion is less than 5.27 %. The Kappa coefficient is 0.84. It shows that the model can better capture the inner transformation mechanism of the city. (2) We made a simulation prediction for Pidu District of Chengdu by discussing Pidu District of Chengdu as a system instance.In this way, we analyzed the urban growth tendency of this area.presenting a contiguous increasing mode, which is called "urban intensive development". This expansion mode accorded with sustainable development theory and the ecological urbanization design theory.

  2. Urban Cultural Heritage Endangerment: Degradation of historico-cultural landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaz, Eric; Cabral, Pedro; Caetano, Mário; Painho, Marco; Nijkamp, Peter

    2010-05-01

    Sustainable development has become one of the great debates of policy-making of the XXI century. The world, is facing unprecedented change following the anthropocentrism of socio-economic growth. However, the commitment of man to ‘transmit to future generations at least the same as had' (ref) seems to be a narrowing, given extensive urban growth, population increase and climate change. However, over the last twenty years, the usage of spatial information systems have brought a positive contribution for better acknowledging the problem of environmental change, and bringing more constructive approaches to planning. Prompted by much research interest in Europe, a broad specter of biodiversity loss models, pollution and environmental degradation algorithms as well as climate change models, have become important tools under the European umbrella. Recognizing the essence of sustainable development, historico-cultural and archaeological regions have a remarkable role in the transformation of landscapes and maintenance of cultural and regional identity. Furthermore, the socio-economic, political-geographic and cultural-scientific history of the dynamics of places and localities on our earth is reflected in their historico-cultural heritage. This patrimony comprises cultural assets, such as old churches, palaces, museums, urban parks, historical architecture of cities, or landscapes of historical interest. Historico-cultural heritage also includes archaeological sites, which sometimes not only have a local value but may have a worldwide significance (e.g. Pompeii). However, massive urban growth is affecting directly the existing historico-cultural resources throughout the European region, and little attention is given to this juxtaposing reality of peri-urban growth and cultural / archaeological heritage preservation. Also, the settling patterns within historico-cultural local clusters follow a similar pattern as current growth tendencies, given the physical conditions of

  3. Monitoring urban growth and detection of land use with GIS and remote sensing: a case study of the Kyrenia region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, Can; Akçit, Nuhcan

    2016-08-01

    Land-cover change is considered one of the central components in current strategies for managing natural resources and monitoring environmental changes. It is important to manage land resources in a sustainable manner which targets at compacting and consolidating urban development. From 2005 to 2015,urban growth in Kyrenia has been quite dramatic, showing a wide and scattered pattern, lacking proper plan. As a result of this unplanned/unorganized expansion, agricultural areas, vegetation and water bodies have been lost in the region. Therefore, it has become a necessity to analyze the results of this urban growth and compare the losses between land-cover changes. With this goal in mind, a case study of Kyrenia region has been carried out using a supervised image classification method and Landsat TM images acquired in 2005 and 2015 to map and extract land-cover changes. This paper tries to assess urban-growth changes detected in the region by using Remote Sensing and GIS. The study monitors the changes between different land cover types. Also, it shows the urban occupation of primary soil loss and the losses in forest areas, open areas, etc.

  4. Growth pattern of preterm and IUGR babies in an urban slum of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The present study was carried out to analyze the growth pattern of preterm and IUGR infants from birth up to nine months of age. A longitudinal study was conducted in an urban slum of Chetla, Kolkata, India. Study population comprised of 36 low birth weight babies, out of which 13 were preterms and rest 23 were IUGR ...

  5. URBAN EFFICIENT ENERGY EVALUATION IN HIGH RESOLUTION URBAN AREAS BY USING ADAPTED WRF-UCM AND MICROSYS CFD MODELS

    Science.gov (United States)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Gonzalez, R. M.

    2009-12-01

    Urban metabolism modeling has advanced substantially during the last years due to the increased detail in mesoscale urban parameterization in meteorological mesoscale models and CFD numerical tools. Recently the implementation of the “urban canopy model” (UCM) into the WRF mesoscale meteorological model has produced a substantial advance on the understanding of the urban atmospheric heat flux exchanges in the urban canopy. The need to optimize the use of heat energy in urban environment has produced a substantial increase in the detailed investigation of the urban heat flux exchanges. In this contribution we will show the performance of using a tool called MICROSYS (MICRO scale CFD modelling SYStem) which is an adaptation of the classical urban canopy model but on a high resolution environment by using a classical CFD approach. The energy balance in the urban system can be determined in a micrometeorologicl sense by considering the energy flows in and out of a control volume. For such a control volume reaching from ground to a certain height above buildings, the energy balance equation includes the net radiation, the anthropogenic heat flux, the turbulent sensible heat flux, the turbulent latent heat flux, the net storage change within the control volume, the net advected flux and other sources and sinks. We have applied the MICROSYS model to an area of 5 km x 5 km with 200 m spatial resolution by using the WRF-UCM (adapted and the MICROSYS CFD model. The anthropogenic heat flux has been estimated by using the Flanner M.G. (2009) database and detailed GIS information (50 m resolution) of Madrid city. The Storage energy has been estimated by calculating the energy balance according to the UCM procedure and implementing it into the MICROSYS tool. Results show that MICROSYS can be used as an energy efficient tool to estimate the energy balance of different urban areas and buildings.

  6. Large urban fire environment: trends and model city predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, D.A.; Small, R.D.

    1983-01-01

    The urban fire environment that would result from a megaton-yield nuclear weapon burst is considered. The dependence of temperatures and velocities on fire size, burning intensity, turbulence, and radiation is explored, and specific calculations for three model urban areas are presented. In all cases, high velocity fire winds are predicted. The model-city results show the influence of building density and urban sprawl on the fire environment. Additional calculations consider large-area fires with the burning intensity reduced in a blast-damaged urban center

  7. Panel estimation for CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharif Hossain, Md.

    2011-01-01

    This paper empirically examines the dynamic causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for the panel of newly industrialized countries (NIC) using the time series data for the period 1971-2007. Using four different panel unit root tests it is found that all panel variables are integrated of order 1. From the Johansen Fisher panel cointegration test it is found that there is a cointegration vector among the variables. The Granger causality test results support that there is no evidence of long-run causal relationship, but there is unidirectional short-run causal relationship from economic growth and trade openness to carbon dioxide emissions, from economic growth to energy consumption, from trade openness to economic growth, from urbanization to economic growth and from trade openness to urbanization. It is found that the long-run elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to energy consumption (1.2189) is higher than short run elasticity of 0.5984. This indicates that over time higher energy consumption in the newly industrialized countries gives rise to more carbon dioxide emissions as a result our environment will be polluted more. But in respect of economic growth, trade openness and urbanization the environmental quality is found to be normal good in the long-run. - Highlights: → Dynamic causal relationships are conducted for different panel variables of NIC. → Test results support only existence of unidirectional short-run causal relationships. → Environment will be polluted more due to energy consumption in the long-run. → But environmental quality is found to be normally good in respect of other variables. → NIC should use solar energy as the substitute of oil to control CO 2 emissions.

  8. Four decades urban growth and land use change in Samara Russia through remote sensing and GIS techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boori, Mukesh Singh; Choudhary, Komal; Kupriyanov, Alexander; Kovelskiy, Viktor

    2015-12-01

    This study illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban growth and land use changes in Samara city, Russia from 1975 to 2015. Landsat satellite imageries of five different time periods from 1975 to 2015 were acquired and quantify the changes with the help of ArcGIS 10.1 Software. By applying classification methods to the satellite images four main types of land use were extracted: water, built-up, forest and grassland. Then, the area coverage for all the land use types at different points in time were measured and coupled with population data. The results demonstrate that, over the entire study period, population was increased from 1146 thousand people to 1244 thousand from 1975 to 1990 but later on first reduce and then increase again, now 1173 thousand population. Built-up area is also change according to population. The present study revealed an increase in built-up by 37.01% from 1975 to 1995, than reduce -88.83% till 2005 and an increase by 39.16% from 2005 to 2015, along with the increase in population, migration from rural areas owing to the economic growth and technological advantages associated with urbanization. Information on urban growth, land use and land cover change study is very useful to local government and urban planners for the betterment of future plans to sustainable development of the city.

  9. Urban contamination and dose model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robertson, E.; Barry, P.J.

    1995-10-01

    Nuclear power reactors and other nuclear facilities are being built near or even within urban centres. Accidental releases of radionuclides to the atmosphere in built-up areas result in radiological exposure pathways that differ from those caused by releases in rural environments. Other than inhalation, exposure pathways involve external radiation from the plume while it passes and from radioactivity deposited onto the many and varied surfaces after it has passed. Radiation fields inside buildings are attenuated but many people are potentially exposed so while individual doses may be relatively low, population integrated doses may be high enough to cause concern. It is important, therefore, to assess the potential exposures and to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dose reduction measures in urban environments. This report describes a model developed to carry out such assessments. The model draws heavily on experience gained in European cities after their contamination fallout from the Chernobyl accident. Input is time integrated concentrations of specific radionuclides in urban air, obtained either by direct measurement or by prediction using an atmospheric dispersion model. The code includes default values for site specific variables and transfer parameters but the user is invited if desired to enter other values from the keyboard. Output is the time integrated dose rates for individuals selected because of the characteristic living, working and recreational habits. An accompanying manual documents the technical background on which the model is based and leads a first-time suer through various steps and operations encountered while the model is running. (author). 60 refs., 10 tabs., 1 fig

  10. Assessing ecological sustainability in urban planning - EcoBalance model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahlgren, I., Email: irmeli.wahlgren@vtt.fi

    2012-06-15

    Urban planning solutions and decisions have large-scale significance for ecological sustainability (eco-efficiency) the consumption of energy and other natural resources, the production of greenhouse gas and other emissions and the costs caused by urban form. Climate change brings new and growing challenges for urban planning. The EcoBalance model was developed to assess the sustainability of urban form and has been applied at various planning levels: regional plans, local master plans and detailed plans. The EcoBalance model estimates the total consumption of energy and other natural resources, the production of emissions and wastes and the costs caused directly and indirectly by urban form on a life cycle basis. The results of the case studies provide information about the ecological impacts of various solutions in urban development. (orig.)

  11. Socio-Environmental Resilience and Complex Urban Systems Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deal, Brian; Petri, Aaron; Pan, Haozhi; Goldenberg, Romain; Kalantari, Zahra; Cvetkovic, Vladimir

    2017-04-01

    The increasing pressure of climate change has inspired two normative agendas; socio-technical transitions and socio-ecological resilience, both sharing a complex-systems epistemology (Gillard et al. 2016). Socio-technical solutions include a continuous, massive data gathering exercise now underway in urban places under the guise of developing a 'smart'(er) city. This has led to the creation of data-rich environments where large data sets have become central to monitoring and forming a response to anomalies. Some have argued that these kinds of data sets can help in planning for resilient cities (Norberg and Cumming 2008; Batty 2013). In this paper, we focus on a more nuanced, ecologically based, socio-environmental perspective of resilience planning that is often given less consideration. Here, we broadly discuss (and model) the tightly linked, mutually influenced, social and biophysical subsystems that are critical for understanding urban resilience. We argue for the need to incorporate these sub system linkages into the resilience planning lexicon through the integration of systems models and planning support systems. We make our case by first providing a context for urban resilience from a socio-ecological and planning perspective. We highlight the data needs for this type of resilient planning and compare it to currently collected data streams in various smart city efforts. This helps to define an approach for operationalizing socio-environmental resilience planning using robust systems models and planning support systems. For this, we draw from our experiences in coupling a spatio-temporal land use model (the Landuse Evolution and impact Assessment Model (LEAM)) with water quality and quantity models in Stockholm Sweden. We describe the coupling of these systems models using a robust Planning Support System (PSS) structural framework. We use the coupled model simulations and PSS to analyze the connection between urban land use transformation (social) and water

  12. Environmental Sustainability and Effects on Urban Micro Region using Agent-Based Modeling of Urbanisation in Select Major Indian Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aithal, B. H.

    2015-12-01

    Abstract: Urbanisation has gained momentum with globalization in India. Policy decisions to set up commercial, industrial hubs have fuelled large scale migration, added with population upsurge has contributed to the fast growing urban region that needs to be monitored in order to design sustainable urban cities. Unplanned urbanization have resulted in the growth of peri-urban region referred to as urban sprawl, are often devoid of basic amenities and infrastructure leading to large scale environmental problems that are evident. Remote sensing data acquired through space borne sensors at regular interval helps in understanding urban dynamics aided by Geoinformatics which has proved very effective in mapping and monitoring for sustainable urban planning. Cellular automata (CA) is a robust approach for the spatially explicit simulation of land-use land cover dynamics. CA uses rules, states, conditions that are vital factors in modelling urbanisation. This communication effectively introduces simulation assistances of CA with the agent based modelling supported by its fuzzy characteristics and weightages through analytical hierarchal process (AHP). This has been done considering perceived agents such as industries, natural resource etc. Respective agent's role in development of a particular regions into an urban area has been examined with weights and its influence of each of these agents based on its characteristics functions. Validation was performed obtaining a high kappa coefficient indicating the quality and the allocation performance of the model & validity of the model to predict future projections. The prediction using the proposed model was performed for 2030. Further environmental sustainability of each of these cities are explored such as water features, environment, greenhouse gas emissions, effects on human human health etc., Modeling suggests trend of various land use classes transformation with the spurt in urban expansions based on specific regions and

  13. Integrating local urban climate modelling and mobile sensor data for personal exposure assessments in the context of urban heat island effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueberham, Maximilian; Hertel, Daniel; Schlink, Uwe

    2017-04-01

    Deeper knowledge about urban climate conditions is getting more important in the context of climate change, urban population growth, urban compaction and continued surface sealing. Especially the urban heat island effect (UHI) is one of the most significant human induced alterations of Earth's surface climate. According to this the appearance frequency of heat waves in cities will increase with deep impacts on personal thermal comfort, human health and local residential quality of citizens. UHI can be very heterogenic within a city and research needs to focus more on the neighborhood scale perspective to get further insights about the heat burden of individuals. However, up to now, few is known about local thermal environmental variances and personal exposure loads. To monitor these processes and the impact on individuals, improved monitoring approaches are crucial, complementing data recorded at conventional fixed stations. Therefore we emphasize the importance of micro-meteorological modelling and mobile measurements to shed new light on the nexus of urban human-climate interactions. Contributing to this research we jointly present the approaches of our two PhD-projects. Firstly we illustrate on the basis of an example site, how local thermal conditions in an urban district can be simulated and predicted by a micro-meteorological model. Secondly we highlight the potentials of personal exposure measurements based on an evaluation of mobile micro-sensing devices (MSDs) and analyze and explain differences between model predictions and mobile records. For the examination of local thermal conditions we calculated ENVI-met simulations within the "Bayerischer Bahnhof" quarter in Leipzig (Saxony, Germany; 51°20', 12°22'). To accomplish the maximum temperature contrasts within the diverse built-up structures we chose a hot summer day (25 Aug 2016) under autochthonous weather conditions. From these simulations we analyzed a UHI effect between the model core (urban area

  14. The Effect of Urban Sprawls on Timber Harvesting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen A. Barlow; Ian A Munn; David A. Cleaves; David L. Evans

    1998-01-01

    In Mississippi and Alabama, urban population growth is pushing development into rural areas. To study the impact of urbanization on timber harvesting, census and forest inventory data were combined in a geographic information system, and a logistic regression model was used to estimate the relationship between several variables and harvest probabilities....

  15. An allometric scaling relation based on logistic growth of cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Yanguang

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • An allometric scaling based on logistic process can be used to model urban growth. • The traditional allometry is based on exponential growth instead of logistic growth. • The exponential allometry represents a local scaling of urban growth. • The logistic allometry represents a global scaling of urban growth. • The exponential allometry is an approximation relation of the logistic allometry. - Abstract: The relationships between urban area and population size have been empirically demonstrated to follow the scaling law of allometric growth. This allometric scaling is based on exponential growth of city size and can be termed “exponential allometry”, which is associated with the concepts of fractals. However, both city population and urban area comply with the course of logistic growth rather than exponential growth. In this paper, I will present a new allometric scaling based on logistic growth to solve the above mentioned problem. The logistic growth is a process of replacement dynamics. Defining a pair of replacement quotients as new measurements, which are functions of urban area and population, we can derive an allometric scaling relation from the logistic processes of urban growth, which can be termed “logistic allometry”. The exponential allometric relation between urban area and population is the approximate expression of the logistic allometric equation when the city size is not large enough. The proper range of the allometric scaling exponent value is reconsidered through the logistic process. Then, a medium-sized city of Henan Province, China, is employed as an example to validate the new allometric relation. The logistic allometry is helpful for further understanding the fractal property and self-organized process of urban evolution in the right perspective

  16. Project ATLANTA (Atlanta Land use Analysis: Temperature and Air Quality): Use of Remote Sensing and Modeling to Analyze How Urban Land Use Change Affects Meteorology and Air Quality Through Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land use ANalysis: Temperature and Air-quality) which is an investigation that seeks to observe, measure, model, and analyze how the rapid growth of the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area since the early 1970's has impacted the region's climate and air quality. The primary objectives for this research effort are: (1) To investigate and model the relationships between land cover change in the Atlanta metropolitan, and the development of the urban heat island phenomenon through time; (2) To investigate and model the temporal relationships between Atlanta urban growth and land cover change on air quality; and (3) To model the overall effects of urban development on surface energy budget characteristics across the Atlanta urban landscape through time. Our key goal is to derive a better scientific understanding of how land cover changes associated with urbanization in the Atlanta area, principally in transforming forest lands to urban land covers through time, has, and will, effect local and regional climate, surface energy flux, and air quality characteristics. Allied with this goal is the prospect that the results from this research can be applied by urban planners, environmental managers and other decision-makers, for determining how urbanization has impacted the climate and overall environment of the Atlanta area. Multiscaled remote sensing data, particularly high resolution thermal infrared data, are integral to this study for the analysis of thermal energy fluxes across the Atlanta urban landscape.

  17. 1D and 2D urban dam-break flood modelling in Istanbul, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozdemir, Hasan; Neal, Jeffrey; Bates, Paul; Döker, Fatih

    2014-05-01

    Urban flood events are increasing in frequency and severity as a consequence of several factors such as reduced infiltration capacities due to continued watershed development, increased construction in flood prone areas due to population growth, the possible amplification of rainfall intensity due to climate change, sea level rise which threatens coastal development, and poorly engineered flood control infrastructure (Gallegos et al., 2009). These factors will contribute to increased urban flood risk in the future, and as a result improved modelling of urban flooding according to different causative factor has been identified as a research priority (Gallegos et al., 2009; Ozdemir et al. 2013). The flooding disaster caused by dam failures is always a threat against lives and properties especially in urban environments. Therefore, the prediction of dynamics of dam-break flows plays a vital role in the forecast and evaluation of flooding disasters, and is of long-standing interest for researchers. Flooding occurred on the Ayamama River (Istanbul-Turkey) due to high intensity rainfall and dam-breaching of Ata Pond in 9th September 2009. The settlements, industrial areas and transportation system on the floodplain of the Ayamama River were inundated. Therefore, 32 people were dead and millions of Euros economic loses were occurred. The aim of this study is 1 and 2-Dimensional flood modelling of the Ata Pond breaching using HEC-RAS and LISFLOOD-Roe models and comparison of the model results using the real flood extent. The HEC-RAS model solves the full 1-D Saint Venant equations for unsteady open channel flow whereas LISFLOOD-Roe is the 2-D shallow water model which calculates the flow according to the complete Saint Venant formulation (Villanueva and Wright, 2006; Neal et al., 2011). The model consists a shock capturing Godunov-type scheme based on the Roe Riemann solver (Roe, 1981). 3 m high resolution Digital Surface Model (DSM), natural characteristics of the pond

  18. Urbancontext: A Management Model For Pervasive Environments In User-Oriented Urban Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia L. Zuniga-Canon

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, urban computing has gained a lot of interest for guiding the evolution of citiesinto intelligent environments. These environments are appropriated for individuals’ inter-actions changing in their behaviors. These changes require new approaches that allow theunderstanding of how urban computing systems should be modeled.In this work we present UrbanContext, a new model for designing of urban computingplatforms that applies the theory of roles to manage the individual’s context in urban envi-ronments. The theory of roles helps to understand the individual’s behavior within a socialenvironment, allowing to model urban computing systems able to adapt to individuals statesand their needs.UrbanContext collects data in urban atmospheres and classifies individuals’ behaviorsaccording to their change of roles, to optimize social interaction and offer secure services.Likewise, UrbanContext serves as a generic model to provide interoperability, and to facilitatethe design, implementation and expansion of urban computing systems.

  19. Modeling Growth in Boys' Aggressive Behavior across Elementary School: Links to Later Criminal Involvement, Conduct Disorder, and Antisocial Personality Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaeffer, Cindy M.; Petras, Hanno; Ialongo, Nicholas; Poduska, Jeanne; Kellam, Sheppard

    2003-01-01

    The present study used general growth mixture modeling to identify pathways of antisocial behavior development within an epidemiological sample of urban, primarily African American boys. Teacher-rated aggression, measured longitudinally from 1st to 7th grade, was used to define growth trajectories. Three high-risk trajectories (chronic high,…

  20. A new framework for modeling urban land expansion in peri-urban area by combining multi-source datasets and data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Z.; Xiao, R.; Li, X.

    2015-12-01

    Peri-urban area is a new type region under the impacts of both rural Industrialization and the radiation of metropolitan during rapid urbanization. Due to its complex natural and social characteristics and unique development patterns, many problems such as environmental pollution and land use waste emerged, which became an urgent issue to be addressed. Study area in this paper covers three typical peri-urban districts (Pudong, Fengxian and Jinshan), which around the Shanghai inner city. By coupling cellular automata and multi-agent system model as the basic tools, this research focus on modelling the urban land expansion and driving mechanism in peri-urban area. The big data is aslo combined with the Bayesian maximum entropy method (BME) for spatiotemporal prediction of multi-source data, which expand the dataset of urban expansion models. Data assimilation method is used to optimize the parameters of the coupling model and minimize the uncertainty of observations, improving the precision of future simulation in peri-urban area. By setting quantitative parameters, the coupling model can effectively improve the simulation of the process of urban land expansion under different policies and management schemes, in order to provide scientificimplications for new urbanization strategy. In this research, we precise the urban land expansion simulation and prediction for peri-urban area, expand the scopes and selections of data acquisition measurements and methods, develop the new applications of the data assimilation method in geographical science, provide a new idea for understanding the inherent rules of urban land expansion, and give theoretical and practical support for the peri-urban area in urban planning and decision making.

  1. Mapping urban environmental noise: a land use regression method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Dan; Liu, Yi; Chen, Jining

    2011-09-01

    Forecasting and preventing urban noise pollution are major challenges in urban environmental management. Most existing efforts, including experiment-based models, statistical models, and noise mapping, however, have limited capacity to explain the association between urban growth and corresponding noise change. Therefore, these conventional methods can hardly forecast urban noise at a given outlook of development layout. This paper, for the first time, introduces a land use regression method, which has been applied for simulating urban air quality for a decade, to construct an urban noise model (LUNOS) in Dalian Municipality, Northwest China. The LUNOS model describes noise as a dependent variable of surrounding various land areas via a regressive function. The results suggest that a linear model performs better in fitting monitoring data, and there is no significant difference of the LUNOS's outputs when applied to different spatial scales. As the LUNOS facilitates a better understanding of the association between land use and urban environmental noise in comparison to conventional methods, it can be regarded as a promising tool for noise prediction for planning purposes and aid smart decision-making.

  2. UrbanTransformation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Lea Louise Holst

    Due to the economical and political changes marked by globalization, neo-liberalism and, post-industrialism a changed spatial configuration is emerging in which an increased division is taking place, into on the one hand, economical and demographical growing urban areas, where the urban fabric...... is being concentrated, and on the other, into declining urban areas that experience a dilution of the urban fabric and a de-concentration of people and capital. This gives an uneven spatial geography where some places are becoming nodal points in the global society and others are left behind. But the urban...... situation of concentration and de-concentration is also closely connected where there is a dynamic relation between the two. Decline might in some cases even be seen as an aspect of growth, where the growth of some places influence the decline in others. With this approach the urban fabric can, therefore...

  3. A study on the relationship between carbon budget and ecosystem service in urban areas according to urbanization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S. J.; Lee, W. K.

    2017-12-01

    The study on the analysis of carbon storage capacity of urban green spaces with increasing urban forest. Modern cities have experienced rapid economic development since Industrial Revolution in the 18th century. The rapid economic growth caused an exponential concentration of population to the cities and decrease of green spaces due to the conversion of forest and agricultural lands to build-up areas with rapid urbanization. As green areas including forests, grasslands, and wetlands provide diverse economic, environmental, and cultural benefits, the decrease of green areas might be a huge loss. Also, the process of urbanization caused pressure on the urban environment more than its natural capacity, which accelerates global climate change. This study tries to see the relations between carbon budget and ecosystem services according to the urbanization. For calculating carbon dynamics, this study used VISIT(Vegetation Integrated Simulator for trace gases) model. And the value that ecosystem provides is explained with the concept of ecosystem service and calculated by InVEST model. Study sites are urban and peri-urban areas in Northeast Asia. From the result of the study, the effect of the urbanization can be understood in regard to carbon storage and ecosystem services.

  4. Construction of a new growth references for China based on urban Chinese children: comparison with the WHO growth standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zong, Xin-Nan; Li, Hui

    2013-01-01

    Growth references for Chinese children should be updated due to the positive secular growth trends and the progress of the smoothing techniques. Human growth differs among the various ethnic groups, so comparison of the China references with the WHO standards helps to understand such differences. The China references, including weight, length/height, head circumference, weight-for-length/height and body mass index (BMI) aged 0-18 years, were constructed based on 69,760 urban infants and preschool children under 7 years and 24,542 urban school children aged 6-20 years derived from two cross-sectional national surveys. The Cole's LMS method is employed for smoothing the growth curves. The merged data sets resulted in a smooth transition at age 6-7 years and continuity of curves from 0 to 18 years. Varying differences were found on the empirical standard deviation (SD) curves in each indicator at nearly all ages between China and WHO. The most noticeable differences occurred in genders, final height and boundary centiles curves. Chinese boys' weight is strikingly heavier than that of the WHO at age 6-10 years. The height is taller than that of the WHO for boys below 15 years and for girls below 13, but is significantly lower when boys over 15 years and girls over 13. BMI is generally higher than that of the WHO for boys at age 6-16 years but appreciably lower for girls at 3-18 years. The differences between China and WHO are mainly caused by the reference populations of different ethnic backgrounds. For practitioners, the choices of the standards/references depend on the population to be assessed and the purpose of the study. The new China references could be applied to facilitate the standardization assessment of growth and nutrition for Chinese children and adolescents in clinical pediatric and public health.

  5. Modeling urbanized watershed flood response changes with distributed hydrological model: key hydrological processes, parameterization and case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization is the world development trend for the past century, and the developing countries have been experiencing much rapider urbanization in the past decades. Urbanization brings many benefits to human beings, but also causes negative impacts, such as increasing flood risk. Impact of urbanization on flood response has long been observed, but quantitatively studying this effect still faces great challenges. For example, setting up an appropriate hydrological model representing the changed flood responses and determining accurate model parameters are very difficult in the urbanized or urbanizing watershed. In the Pearl River Delta area, rapidest urbanization has been observed in China for the past decades, and dozens of highly urbanized watersheds have been appeared. In this study, a physically based distributed watershed hydrological model, the Liuxihe model is employed and revised to simulate the hydrological processes of the highly urbanized watershed flood in the Pearl River Delta area. A virtual soil type is then defined in the terrain properties dataset, and its runoff production and routing algorithms are added to the Liuxihe model. Based on a parameter sensitive analysis, the key hydrological processes of a highly urbanized watershed is proposed, that provides insight into the hydrological processes and for parameter optimization. Based on the above analysis, the model is set up in the Songmushan watershed where there is hydrological data observation. A model parameter optimization and updating strategy is proposed based on the remotely sensed LUC types, which optimizes model parameters with PSO algorithm and updates them based on the changed LUC types. The model parameters in Songmushan watershed are regionalized at the Pearl River Delta area watersheds based on the LUC types of the other watersheds. A dozen watersheds in the highly urbanized area of Dongguan City in the Pearl River Delta area were studied for the flood response changes due to

  6. Geographically Weighted Regression Models in Estimating Median Home Prices in Towns of Massachusetts Based on an Urban Sustainability Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaxiong Ma

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Housing is a key component of urban sustainability. The objective of this study was to assess the significance of key spatial determinants of median home price in towns in Massachusetts that impact sustainable growth. Our analysis investigates the presence or absence of spatial non-stationarity in the relationship between sustainable growth, measured in terms of the relationship between home values and various parameters including the amount of unprotected forest land, residential land, unemployment, education, vehicle ownership, accessibility to commuter rail stations, school district performance, and senior population. We use the standard geographically weighted regression (GWR and Mixed GWR models to analyze the effects of spatial non-stationarity. Mixed GWR performed better than GWR in terms of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC values. Our findings highlight the nature and spatial extent of the non-stationary vs. stationary qualities of key environmental and social determinants of median home price. Understanding the key determinants of housing values, such as valuation of green spaces, public school performance metrics, and proximity to public transport, enable towns to use different strategies of sustainable urban planning, while understanding urban housing determinants—such as unemployment and senior population—can help modify urban sustainable housing policies.

  7. Micro-meteorological modelling in urban areas: pollutant dispersion and radiative effects modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milliez, Maya

    2006-01-01

    Atmospheric pollution and urban climate studies require to take into account the complex processes due to heterogeneity of urban areas and the interaction with the buildings. In order to estimate the impact of buildings on flow and pollutant dispersion, detailed numerical simulations were performed over an idealized urban area, with the three-dimensional model Mercure-Saturne, modelling both concentration means and their fluctuations. To take into account atmospheric radiation in built up areas and the thermal effects of the buildings, we implemented a three-dimensional radiative model adapted to complex geometry. This model, adapted from a scheme used for thermal radiation, solves the radiative transfer equation in a semi-transparent media, using the discrete ordinate method. The new scheme was validated with idealized cases and compared to a complete case. (author) [fr

  8. Urban drainage models - making uncertainty analysis simple

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Deletic, Ana

    2012-01-01

    in each measured/observed datapoint; an issue which is commonly overlook in the uncertainty analysis of urban drainage models. This comparison allows the user to intuitively estimate the optimum number of simulations required to conduct uncertainty analyses. The output of the method includes parameter......There is increasing awareness about uncertainties in modelling of urban drainage systems and, as such, many new methods for uncertainty analyses have been developed. Despite this, all available methods have limitations which restrict their widespread application among practitioners. Here...

  9. First results from the International Urban Energy Balance Model Comparison: Model Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackett, M.; Grimmond, S.; Best, M.

    2009-04-01

    A great variety of urban energy balance models has been developed. These vary in complexity from simple schemes that represent the city as a slab, through those which model various facets (i.e. road, walls and roof) to more complex urban forms (including street canyons with intersections) and features (such as vegetation cover and anthropogenic heat fluxes). Some schemes also incorporate detailed representations of momentum and energy fluxes distributed throughout various layers of the urban canopy layer. The models each differ in the parameters they require to describe the site and the in demands they make on computational processing power. Many of these models have been evaluated using observational datasets but to date, no controlled comparisons have been conducted. Urban surface energy balance models provide a means to predict the energy exchange processes which influence factors such as urban temperature, humidity, atmospheric stability and winds. These all need to be modelled accurately to capture features such as the urban heat island effect and to provide key information for dispersion and air quality modelling. A comparison of the various models available will assist in improving current and future models and will assist in formulating research priorities for future observational campaigns within urban areas. In this presentation we will summarise the initial results of this international urban energy balance model comparison. In particular, the relative performance of the models involved will be compared based on their degree of complexity. These results will inform us on ways in which we can improve the modelling of air quality within, and climate impacts of, global megacities. The methodology employed in conducting this comparison followed that used in PILPS (the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes) which is also endorsed by the GEWEX Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) panel. In all cases, models were run

  10. Influence of land urbanization on carbon sequestration of urban vegetation: A temporal cooperativity analysis in Guangzhou as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Qian; Dong, Yu-Xiang; Yang, Ren

    2018-04-13

    Land urbanization can affect carbon sequestration. In this study, the relationships between land urbanization and carbon sequestration of urban vegetation were studied for Guangzhou, China. The methodology was based on land use data from Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery, MODIS13Q1 data, and climate data, and the improved Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA) model and linear system models were employed. Characteristics such as the amount of expansion, spatial agglomeration, spatial expansion intensity, and spatial growth of built-up land were analyzed, and the influence of land urbanization (built-up land expansion) on carbon sequestration of urban vegetation was elucidated by a temporal sequential cooperativity analysis. The main results were as follows. (1) Land urbanization had a clear influence on carbon sequestration of urban vegetation in Guangzhou, and the proportion and spatial agglomeration of built-up land showed significant negative correlations with this carbon sequestration; the correlation coefficients were -0.443 and -0.537, respectively, in 2014. (2) The spatial expansion intensity and spatial growth of built-up land showed small correlations with carbon sequestration, and the correlations from 2000 to 2005 were relatively larger than those at other times; this was because the built-up land expansion speed was the fastest during this period. (3) The temporal sequential cooperativity analysis revealed that carbon was lost as natural surfaces were transformed to artificial surfaces, and land urbanization effects on carbon sequestration showed no significant temporal lag. Carbon sequestration of urban vegetation in the city could be improved by adding urban green spaces; however, this would likely take some time as the system recovers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Self-organization in interface dynamics and urban development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehud Meron

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available The view of the urban environment as an extended nonlinear system introduces new concepts, motivates new questions, and suggests new methodologies in the study of urban dynamics. A review of recent results on interface dynamics in nonequilibrium physical systems is presented, and possible implications on the urban environment are discussed. It is suggested that the growth modes of specific urban zones (e.g. residential, commercial, or industrial and the factors affecting them can be studied using mathematical models that capture two generic interface instabilities.

  12. Economic growth, urbanization, globalization, and the risks of emerging infectious diseases in China: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tong; Perrings, Charles; Kinzig, Ann; Collins, James P; Minteer, Ben A; Daszak, Peter

    2017-02-01

    Three interrelated world trends may be exacerbating emerging zoonotic risks: income growth, urbanization, and globalization. Income growth is associated with rising animal protein consumption in developing countries, which increases the conversion of wild lands to livestock production, and hence the probability of zoonotic emergence. Urbanization implies the greater concentration and connectedness of people, which increases the speed at which new infections are spread. Globalization-the closer integration of the world economy-has facilitated pathogen spread among countries through the growth of trade and travel. High-risk areas for the emergence and spread of infectious disease are where these three trends intersect with predisposing socioecological conditions including the presence of wild disease reservoirs, agricultural practices that increase contact between wildlife and livestock, and cultural practices that increase contact between humans, wildlife, and livestock. Such an intersection occurs in China, which has been a "cradle" of zoonoses from the Black Death to avian influenza and SARS. Disease management in China is thus critical to the mitigation of global zoonotic risks.

  13. Urban weather data and building models for the inclusion of the urban heat island effect in building performance simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palme, M; Inostroza, L; Villacreses, G; Lobato, A; Carrasco, C

    2017-10-01

    This data article presents files supporting calculation for urban heat island (UHI) inclusion in building performance simulation (BPS). Methodology is used in the research article "From urban climate to energy consumption. Enhancing building performance simulation by including the urban heat island effect" (Palme et al., 2017) [1]. In this research, a Geographical Information System (GIS) study is done in order to statistically represent the most important urban scenarios of four South-American cities (Guayaquil, Lima, Antofagasta and Valparaíso). Then, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is done to obtain reference Urban Tissues Categories (UTC) to be used in urban weather simulation. The urban weather files are generated by using the Urban Weather Generator (UWG) software (version 4.1 beta). Finally, BPS is run out with the Transient System Simulation (TRNSYS) software (version 17). In this data paper, four sets of data are presented: 1) PCA data (excel) to explain how to group different urban samples in representative UTC; 2) UWG data (text) to reproduce the Urban Weather Generation for the UTC used in the four cities (4 UTC in Lima, Guayaquil, Antofagasta and 5 UTC in Valparaíso); 3) weather data (text) with the resulting rural and urban weather; 4) BPS models (text) data containing the TRNSYS models (four building models).

  14. Simulating Spatial Growth Patterns in Developing Countries: an Agent Based Modelling Approach. A Case of Shama in the Western Region of Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inkoom, J. N.

    2011-12-01

    In Sub-Saharan Africa, rapid urban growth is characterized by prolific expansion of unplanned (informal) structures, and unguided spatial expansion. These unguided expansions by human agents have outstripped the regulatory capacities of Central and Local government. Governmental institutions in finding solutions to the unguided expansion in unplanned use of land have to call for the modelling of what influences the spatial decision and role of human agents in the growth of informal settlement. The objective of the study is to simulate spatial growth pattern of settlements in the Shama district using an agent based model. The study was conducted within a framework of NetLogo. The NetLogo assisted to incorporate and simulate driving forces that affect location decision-making by households and the growth of informal settlement. A survey was conducted to obtain household location decision preferences. The development of unplanned settlement has been a function of land price, proximity to economic centre's, household economic potential, and the location decision-making patterns of households. The exploratory analysis found particularly that majority of spontaneous development took place on areas liable to floods suggesting that some structures fall outside the required building regulations. The application of the proposed model indicates its potential to improve urban planning policies and decision-making processes in emerging cities of developing countries. Also, the result of the simulation suggests potential preferential location for residential development. The research justifies an approach in the area of simulating urban dynamics with agent-based models.

  15. URBAN MODELLING PERFORMANCE OF NEXT GENERATION SAR MISSIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. G. Sefercik

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In synthetic aperture radar (SAR technology, urban mapping and modelling have become possible with revolutionary missions TerraSAR-X (TSX and Cosmo-SkyMed (CSK since 2007. These satellites offer 1m spatial resolution in high-resolution spotlight imaging mode and capable for high quality digital surface model (DSM acquisition for urban areas utilizing interferometric SAR (InSAR technology. With the advantage of independent generation from seasonal weather conditions, TSX and CSK DSMs are much in demand by scientific users. The performance of SAR DSMs is influenced by the distortions such as layover, foreshortening, shadow and double-bounce depend up on imaging geometry. In this study, the potential of DSMs derived from convenient 1m high-resolution spotlight (HS InSAR pairs of CSK and TSX is validated by model-to-model absolute and relative accuracy estimations in an urban area. For the verification, an airborne laser scanning (ALS DSM of the study area was used as the reference model. Results demonstrated that TSX and CSK urban DSMs are compatible in open, built-up and forest land forms with the absolute accuracy of 8–10 m. The relative accuracies based on the coherence of neighbouring pixels are superior to absolute accuracies both for CSK and TSX.

  16. Urban blight and urban redesign

    OpenAIRE

    Zsilincsar, Walter

    2018-01-01

    The phenomenon of urban blight dates back to the 19th century when industrialisation starting in Europe and North America initiated an uncontrolled urban growth in combination with strong demand in cheap an quickly constructed housing. Ghettoisation of mainly the working-class population and other “marginal groups” were the consequence together with a constant decay of single buildings, whole blocks and quarters. These general aspects of urban blight with its additional facettes or aspects re...

  17. Research on application of intelligent computation based LUCC model in urbanization process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zemin

    2007-06-01

    Global change study is an interdisciplinary and comprehensive research activity with international cooperation, arising in 1980s, with the largest scopes. The interaction between land use and cover change, as a research field with the crossing of natural science and social science, has become one of core subjects of global change study as well as the front edge and hot point of it. It is necessary to develop research on land use and cover change in urbanization process and build an analog model of urbanization to carry out description, simulation and analysis on dynamic behaviors in urban development change as well as to understand basic characteristics and rules of urbanization process. This has positive practical and theoretical significance for formulating urban and regional sustainable development strategy. The effect of urbanization on land use and cover change is mainly embodied in the change of quantity structure and space structure of urban space, and LUCC model in urbanization process has been an important research subject of urban geography and urban planning. In this paper, based upon previous research achievements, the writer systematically analyzes the research on land use/cover change in urbanization process with the theories of complexity science research and intelligent computation; builds a model for simulating and forecasting dynamic evolution of urban land use and cover change, on the basis of cellular automation model of complexity science research method and multi-agent theory; expands Markov model, traditional CA model and Agent model, introduces complexity science research theory and intelligent computation theory into LUCC research model to build intelligent computation-based LUCC model for analog research on land use and cover change in urbanization research, and performs case research. The concrete contents are as follows: 1. Complexity of LUCC research in urbanization process. Analyze urbanization process in combination with the contents

  18. Applicability of models to estimate traffic noise for urban roads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melo, Ricardo A; Pimentel, Roberto L; Lacerda, Diego M; Silva, Wekisley M

    2015-01-01

    Traffic noise is a highly relevant environmental impact in cities. Models to estimate traffic noise, in turn, can be useful tools to guide mitigation measures. In this paper, the applicability of models to estimate noise levels produced by a continuous flow of vehicles on urban roads is investigated. The aim is to identify which models are more appropriate to estimate traffic noise in urban areas since several models available were conceived to estimate noise from highway traffic. First, measurements of traffic noise, vehicle count and speed were carried out in five arterial urban roads of a brazilian city. Together with geometric measurements of width of lanes and distance from noise meter to lanes, these data were input in several models to estimate traffic noise. The predicted noise levels were then compared to the respective measured counterparts for each road investigated. In addition, a chart showing mean differences in noise between estimations and measurements is presented, to evaluate the overall performance of the models. Measured Leq values varied from 69 to 79 dB(A) for traffic flows varying from 1618 to 5220 vehicles/h. Mean noise level differences between estimations and measurements for all urban roads investigated ranged from -3.5 to 5.5 dB(A). According to the results, deficiencies of some models are discussed while other models are identified as applicable to noise estimations on urban roads in a condition of continuous flow. Key issues to apply such models to urban roads are highlighted.

  19. A data model for simulation models relying on spatio-temporal urban data

    OpenAIRE

    Langlois , G ,; Tourre , Vincent; Servières , Myriam; Gervais , G ,; Gesquière , Gilles

    2016-01-01

    International audience; To understand the complexity of modern cities and anticipate their expansion, experts from various fields conceive simulation models that can be very different. Those simulation models work with a variety of data with their own organization. Furthermore, because the urban objects are studied in the context of the evolution of a city or urban area, they carry temporal and spatial information. In this paper, we present the base classes of a common data model robust and f...

  20. Spatiotemporal Effects of Climate Variability and Urban Growth on the "Valle de Toluca" Aquifer (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastachi-Loza, C. A.; Diaz-Delgado, C.; Esteller, M. V.; Gomez-Albores, M. A.; Becerril, R.; Ruiz-Gomez, M. D.

    2013-05-01

    Toluca city is located in the "Valle de Toluca" at the upper course of the Lerma river basin, is an important economic center which contributes with 1.2% of Gross National Product (GNP) since it is an industrial city, The city has grown due to the economic development sustained by the "Valle de Toluca" aquifer which provides water for human consumption, industrial facilities and crop irrigation. Recent studies have shown that in the last 50 years the annual precipitation rate in Toluca has increased 122 mm, whereas the daily minimum temperature has increased 1.1 °C and the daily maximum temperature has also increased 0.8 °C. These results show a general overview of the change in the climate conditions of the city; however they do not show the spatial distribution of the change. For this reason, the aim of this work was to evaluate the spatiotemporal change of precipitation rates and urban growth in order to determine their effects over the "Valle de Toluca" aquifer. In order to detect the urban growth, a supervised classification technique has been used taking into account Landsat TM satellite images between 1973, 1986, 2000 and 2005. A yearly spatiotemporal raster set of rainfall rates from 1980 to 2010 were obtained interpolating data from 812 climatologic stations. To evaluate the effect in annual precipitation rates and urban growth over the aquifer, we interpolate data from 38 piezometers from 1980 to 2010 to obtain a spatiotemporal raster set. The piezometric values correspond to the aquifer's upper level. The spatiotemporal raster sets were analyzed with the non-parametric Theil-Sen test to determine trends in piezometric levels and precipitation rates. Finally the urban growth, spatial-temporal trends of precipitation rates and piezometric levels were displayed in a GIS and then subjectively analyzed to figure out coincidences. An increase in annual precipitation rates (+87 mm) over Toluca's Valley during the last three decades was observed specially

  1. Urban weather data and building models for the inclusion of the urban heat island effect in building performance simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Palme

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This data article presents files supporting calculation for urban heat island (UHI inclusion in building performance simulation (BPS. Methodology is used in the research article “From urban climate to energy consumption. Enhancing building performance simulation by including the urban heat island effect” (Palme et al., 2017 [1]. In this research, a Geographical Information System (GIS study is done in order to statistically represent the most important urban scenarios of four South-American cities (Guayaquil, Lima, Antofagasta and Valparaíso. Then, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA is done to obtain reference Urban Tissues Categories (UTC to be used in urban weather simulation. The urban weather files are generated by using the Urban Weather Generator (UWG software (version 4.1 beta. Finally, BPS is run out with the Transient System Simulation (TRNSYS software (version 17. In this data paper, four sets of data are presented: 1 PCA data (excel to explain how to group different urban samples in representative UTC; 2 UWG data (text to reproduce the Urban Weather Generation for the UTC used in the four cities (4 UTC in Lima, Guayaquil, Antofagasta and 5 UTC in Valparaíso; 3 weather data (text with the resulting rural and urban weather; 4 BPS models (text data containing the TRNSYS models (four building models.

  2. Uncertainty propagation in urban hydrology water quality modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torres Matallana, Arturo; Leopold, U.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.

    2016-01-01

    Uncertainty is often ignored in urban hydrology modelling. Engineering practice typically ignores uncertainties and uncertainty propagation. This can have large impacts, such as the wrong dimensioning of urban drainage systems and the inaccurate estimation of pollution in the environment caused

  3. Development of river flood model in lower reach of urbanized river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshimura, Kouhei; Tajima, Yoshimitsu; Sanuki, Hiroshi; Shibuo, Yoshihiro; Sato, Shinji; Lee, SungAe; Furumai, Hiroaki; Koike, Toshio

    2014-05-01

    Japan, with its natural mountainous landscape, has demographic feature that population is concentrated in lower reach of elevation close to the coast, and therefore flood damage with large socio-economic value tends to occur in low-lying region. Modeling of river flood in such low-lying urbanized river basin is complex due to the following reasons. In upstream it has been experienced urbanization, which changed land covers from natural forest or agricultural fields to residential or industrial area. Hence rate of infiltration and runoff are quite different from natural hydrological settings. In downstream, paved covers and construct of sewerage system in urbanized areas affect direct discharges and it enhances higher and faster flood peak arrival. Also tidal effect from river mouth strongly affects water levels in rivers, which must be taken into account. We develop an integrated river flood model in lower reach of urbanized areas to be able to address above described complex feature, by integrating model components: LSM coupled distributed hydrological model that models anthropogenic influence on river discharges to downstream; urban hydrological model that simulates run off response in urbanized areas; Saint Venant's equation approximated river model that integrates upstream and urban hydrological models with considering tidal effect from downstream. These features are integrated in a common modeling framework so that model interaction can be directly performed. The model is applied to the Tsurumi river basin, urbanized low-lying river basin in Yokohama and model results show that it can simulate water levels in rivers with acceptable model errors. Furthermore the model is able to install miscellaneous water planning constructs, such as runoff reduction pond in urbanized area, flood control field along the river channel, levee, etc. This can be a useful tool to investigate cost performance of hypothetical water management plan against impact of climate change in

  4. Modelling atmospheric deposition flux of Cadmium and Lead in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cherin, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    According to WHO, air pollution is responsible for more than 3.7 million premature deaths each year (OMS, 2014). Moreover, among these deaths, more than 70 within urban areas. Consequently, the health and environmental impacts of pollutants within these urban areas are of great concern in air quality studies. The deposition fluxes of air pollutants, which can be significant near sources of pollution, have rarely been modeled within urban areas. Historically, atmospheric deposition studies have focused mostly on remote areas to assess the potential impacts on ecosystems of acid deposition and nitrogen loading. Therefore, current atmospheric deposition models may not be suitable to simulate deposition fluxes in urban areas, which include complex surface geometries and diverse land use types. Atmospheric dry deposition is typically modeled using an average roughness length, which depends on land use. This classical roughness-length approach cannot account for the spatial variability of dry deposition in complex settings such as urban areas. Urban canopy models have been developed to parameterize momentum and heat transfer. We extend this approach here to mass transfer, and a new dry deposition model based on the urban canyon concept is presented. It uses a local mixing-length parameterization of turbulence within the canopy, and a description of the urban canopy via key parameters to provide spatially distributed dry deposition fluxes. This approach provides spatially distributed dry deposition fluxes depending on surfaces (streets, walls, roofs) and flow regimes (recirculation and ventilation) within the urban area. (author) [fr

  5. Unified Data Model of Urban Air Pollution Dispersion and 3D Spatial City Models: Groundwork Assessment towards Sustainable Urban Development for Malaysia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ujang, Uznir; Anton, François; Rahman, Alias Abdul

    2013-01-01

    air pollution in urban areas encompasses sophisticated air quality modeling and data acquisition. However, rapid developments in major cities cause difficulties in acquiring the city geometries. The existing method in acquiring city geometries data via ground or space measurement inspection....... Therefore this paper aims is to perform groundwork assessment and discuss on the current scenario in Malaysia in the aspect of current policies towards SUD, air quality monitoring stations, scale model and detail discussion on air pollution dispersion model used called the Operational Street Pollution Model......Understanding the behavior of urban air pollution is important en route for sustainable urban development (SUD). Malaysia is on its mission to be a developed country by year 2020 comprehends dealing with air pollution is one of the indicators headed towards it. At present monitoring and managing...

  6. The Effect of Economic Growth, Urbanization, and Industrialization on Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Concentrations in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guangdong; Fang, Chuanglin; Wang, Shaojian; Sun, Siao

    2016-11-01

    Rapid economic growth, industrialization, and urbanization in China have led to extremely severe air pollution that causes increasing negative effects on human health, visibility, and climate change. However, the influence mechanisms of these anthropogenic factors on fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations are poorly understood. In this study, we combined panel data and econometric methods to investigate the main anthropogenic factors that contribute to increasing PM 2.5 concentrations in China at the prefecture level from 1999 to 2011. The results showed that PM 2.5 concentrations and three anthropogenic factors were cointegrated. The panel Fully Modified Least Squares and panel Granger causality test results indicated that economic growth, industrialization, and urbanization increased PM 2.5 concentrations in the long run. The results implied that if China persists in its current development pattern, economic growth, industrialization and urbanization will inevitably lead to increased PM 2.5 emissions in the long term. Industrialization was the principal factor that affected PM 2.5 concentrations for the total panel, the industry-oriented panel and the service-oriented panel. PM 2.5 concentrations can be reduced at the cost of short-term economic growth and industrialization. However, reducing the urbanization level is not an efficient way to decrease PM 2.5 pollutions in the short term. The findings also suggest that a rapid reduction of PM 2.5 concentrations relying solely on adjusting these anthropogenic factors is difficult in a short-term for the heavily PM 2.5 -polluted panel. Moreover, the Chinese government will have to seek much broader policies that favor a decoupling of these coupling relationships.

  7. Statistical modeling of urban air temperature distributions under different synoptic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Christoph; Breitner, Susanne; Cyrys, Josef; Hald, Cornelius; Hartz, Uwe; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Richter, Katja; Schneider, Alexandra; Wolf, Kathrin

    2015-04-01

    Within urban areas air temperature may vary distinctly between different locations. These intra-urban air temperature variations partly reach magnitudes that are relevant with respect to human thermal comfort. Therefore and furthermore taking into account potential interrelations with other health related environmental factors (e.g. air quality) it is important to estimate spatial patterns of intra-urban air temperature distributions that may be incorporated into urban planning processes. In this contribution we present an approach to estimate spatial temperature distributions in the urban area of Augsburg (Germany) by means of statistical modeling. At 36 locations in the urban area of Augsburg air temperatures are measured with high temporal resolution (4 min.) since December 2012. These 36 locations represent different typical urban land use characteristics in terms of varying percentage coverages of different land cover categories (e.g. impervious, built-up, vegetated). Percentage coverages of these land cover categories have been extracted from different sources (Open Street Map, European Urban Atlas, Urban Morphological Zones) for regular grids of varying size (50, 100, 200 meter horizonal resolution) for the urban area of Augsburg. It is well known from numerous studies that land use characteristics have a distinct influence on air temperature and as well other climatic variables at a certain location. Therefore air temperatures at the 36 locations are modeled utilizing land use characteristics (percentage coverages of land cover categories) as predictor variables in Stepwise Multiple Regression models and in Random Forest based model approaches. After model evaluation via cross-validation appropriate statistical models are applied to gridded land use data to derive spatial urban air temperature distributions. Varying models are tested and applied for different seasons and times of the day and also for different synoptic conditions (e.g. clear and calm

  8. Urbanization impacts on mammals across urban-forest edges and a predictive model of edge effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villaseñor, Nélida R; Driscoll, Don A; Escobar, Martín A H; Gibbons, Philip; Lindenmayer, David B

    2014-01-01

    With accelerating rates of urbanization worldwide, a better understanding of ecological processes at the wildland-urban interface is critical to conserve biodiversity. We explored the effects of high and low-density housing developments on forest-dwelling mammals. Based on habitat characteristics, we expected a gradual decline in species abundance across forest-urban edges and an increased decline rate in higher contrast edges. We surveyed arboreal mammals in sites of high and low housing density along 600 m transects that spanned urban areas and areas turn on adjacent native forest. We also surveyed forest controls to test whether edge effects extended beyond our edge transects. We fitted models describing richness, total abundance and individual species abundance. Low-density housing developments provided suitable habitat for most arboreal mammals. In contrast, high-density housing developments had lower species richness, total abundance and individual species abundance, but supported the highest abundances of an urban adapter (Trichosurus vulpecula). We did not find the predicted gradual decline in species abundance. Of four species analysed, three exhibited no response to the proximity of urban boundaries, but spilled over into adjacent urban habitat to differing extents. One species (Petaurus australis) had an extended negative response to urban boundaries, suggesting that urban development has impacts beyond 300 m into adjacent forest. Our empirical work demonstrates that high-density housing developments have negative effects on both community and species level responses, except for one urban adapter. We developed a new predictive model of edge effects based on our results and the literature. To predict animal responses across edges, our framework integrates for first time: (1) habitat quality/preference, (2) species response with the proximity to the adjacent habitat, and (3) spillover extent/sensitivity to adjacent habitat boundaries. This framework will

  9. Long-Term Urban Growth and Land Use Efficiency in Southern Europe: Implications for Sustainable Land Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Zitti

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The present study illustrates a multidimensional analysis of an indicator of urban land use efficiency (per-capita built-up area, LUE in mainland Attica, a Mediterranean urban region, along different expansion waves (1960–2010: compaction and densification in the 1960s, dispersed growth along the coasts and on Athens’ fringe in the 1970s, fringe consolidation in the 1980s, moderate re-polarization and discontinuous expansion in the 1990s and sprawl in remote areas in the 2000s. The non-linear trend in LUE (a continuous increase up to the 1980s and a moderate decrease in 1990 and 2000 preceding the rise observed over the last decade reflects Athens’ expansion waves. A total of 23 indicators were collected by decade for each municipality of the study area with the aim of identifying the drivers of land use efficiency. In 1960, municipalities with low efficiency in the use of land were concentrated on both coastal areas and Athens’ fringe, while in 2010, the lowest efficiency rate was observed in the most remote, rural areas. Typical urban functions (e.g., mixed land uses, multiple-use buildings, vertical profile are the variables most associated with high efficiency in the use of land. Policies for sustainable land management should consider local and regional factors shaping land use efficiency promoting self-contained expansion and more tightly protecting rural and remote land from dispersed urbanization. LUE is a promising indicator reflecting the increased complexity of growth patterns and may anticipate future urban trends.

  10. Microgeographic differentiation in thermal performance curves between rural and urban populations of an aquatic insect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tüzün, Nedim; Op de Beeck, Lin; Brans, Kristien I; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby

    2017-12-01

    The rapidly increasing rate of urbanization has a major impact on the ecology and evolution of species. While increased temperatures are a key aspect of urbanization ("urban heat islands"), we have very limited knowledge whether this generates differentiation in thermal responses between rural and urban populations. In a common garden experiment, we compared the thermal performance curves (TPCs) for growth rate and mortality in larvae of the damselfly Coenagrion puella from three urban and three rural populations. TPCs for growth rate shifted vertically, consistent with the faster-slower theoretical model whereby the cold-adapted rural larvae grew faster than the warm-adapted urban larvae across temperatures. In line with costs of rapid growth, rural larvae showed lower survival than urban larvae across temperatures. The relatively lower temperatures hence expected shorter growing seasons in rural populations compared to the populations in the urban heat islands likely impose stronger time constraints to reach a certain developmental stage before winter, thereby selecting for faster growth rates. In addition, higher predation rates at higher temperature may have contributed to the growth rate differences between urban and rural ponds. A faster-slower differentiation in TPCs may be a widespread pattern along the urbanization gradient. The observed microgeographic differentiation in TPCs supports the view that urbanization may drive life-history evolution. Moreover, because of the urban heat island effect, urban environments have the potential to aid in developing predictions on the impact of climate change on rural populations.

  11. The Rise of Urban Slum in Nigeria: Implications on the Urban ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... defacement of the urban landscape in Nigeria. It recommends that Government and city planners should provide affordable land and low cost housing for the urban dwellers. This will enable people to own their property or rent as the case may be. Keywords: Urban Slum, Urban Landscape, Implication, Population, Growth

  12. Procedural modeling of urban layout: population, land use, and road network

    OpenAIRE

    Lyu, X.; Han, Q.; de Vries, B.

    2017-01-01

    This paper introduces an urban simulation system generating urban layouts with population, road network and land use layers. The desired urban spatial structure is obtained by generating a population map based on population density models. The road network is generated at two spatial levels corresponding to the road hierarchy. The land use allocation is based on the What If? allocation model. The expected results are urban layouts suitable for academic scenario analysis.

  13. Eco-Anthropic Compatibility - a Multidisciplinary Model in Urban Ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIANO L. BIANCA

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I propose a multidisciplinary model of urban development which goes beyond the notion of ecological sustainability, by building on the concept of eco-anthropic compatibility. First of all I will sketch the historical development of human aggregations and I will underline the difference between ancient and modern aggregations. On the basis of this analysis, I will take into consideration the notion of sustainability and its possible application to present conurbations. I will underline several limits of the notion of sustainable development and I will propose a multidisciplinary model grounded on a broader and new notion: the eco-anthropic compatibility. Using this notion, which includes the idea of sustainability, it is possible to handle, within the model, the human factors and human living conditions inside an urban aggregation. Finally, I will state that the actual urban model is decaying and therefore, sooner or later, we will have to face the end of urban civilization; for this reason we can start imagining new future ways for human aggregations on the planet based on the notion of eco-anthropic compatibility.

  14. Dynamic impact of urbanization, economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness on CO 2 emissions in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Hamisu Sadi; Law, Siong Hook; Zannah, Talha Ibrahim

    2016-06-01

    The objective of this paper is to examine the dynamic impact of urbanization, economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness on CO 2 emissions in Nigeria based on autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) approach for the period of 1971-2011. The result shows that variables were cointegrated as null hypothesis was rejected at 1 % level of significance. The coefficients of long-run result reveal that urbanization does not have any significant impact on CO 2 emissions in Nigeria, economic growth, and energy consumption has a positive and significant impact on CO 2 emissions. However, trade openness has negative and significant impact on CO 2 emissions. Consumption of energy is among the main determinant of CO 2 emissions which is directly linked to the level of income. Despite the high level of urbanization in the country, consumption of energy still remains low due to lower income of the majority populace and this might be among the reasons why urbanization does not influence emissions of CO 2 in the country. Initiating more open economy policies will be welcoming in the Nigerian economy as the openness leads to the reduction of pollutants from the environment particularly CO 2 emissions which is the major gases that deteriorate physical environment.

  15. Monitoring urban expansion and its effects on land use and land cover changes in Guangzhou city, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yanyan; Li, Shuyuan; Yu, Shixiao

    2016-01-01

    There are widespread concerns about urban sprawl in China. In response, modeling and assessing urban expansion and subsequent land use and land cover (LULC) changes have become important approaches to support decisions about appropriate development and land resource use. Guangzhou, a major metropolitan city in South China, has experienced rapid urbanization and great economic growth in the past few decades. This study applied a series of Landsat images to assess the urban expansion and subsequent LULC changes over 35 years, from 1979 to 2013. From start to end, urban expansion increased by 1512.24 km(2) with an annual growth rate of 11.25 %. There were four stages of urban growth: low rates from 1979 to 1990, increased rates from 1990 to 2001, high rates from 2001 to 2009, and steady increased rates from 2009 to 2013. There were also three different urban growth types in these different stages: edge-expansion growth, infilling growth, and spontaneous growth. Other land cover, such as cropland, forest, and mosaics of cropland and natural vegetation, were severely impacted as a result. To analyze these changes, we used landscape metrics to characterize the changes in the spatial patterns across the Guangzhou landscape and the impacts of urban growth on other types of land cover. The significant changes in LULC and urban expansion were highly correlated with economic development, population growth, technical progress, policy elements, and other similar indexes.

  16. Mass balance-based regression modeling of PAHs accumulation in urban soils, role of urban development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Chi; Wang, Meie; Chen, Weiping; Chang, Andrew C.

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) contents in 68 soils samples collected at housing developments that represent different length of development periods across Beijing. Based on the data, we derived a mass balanced mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of PAH accumulations in urban soils as affected by the urban developments. The key parameters were estimated by fitting the modified mass balance model to the data of PAH concentrations vs. building age of the sampling green area. The total PAH concentrations would increase from the baseline of 267 ng g −1 to 3631 ng g −1 during the period of 1978–2048. It showed that the dynamic changes in the rates of accumulations of light and heavy PAH species were related to the shifting of sources of fuels, combustion efficiencies, and amounts of energy consumed during the course of development. - Highlights: • Introduced a mass balance model for soil PAHs accumulation with urbanization. • Reconstructed the historical data of PAH accumulation in soil of Beijing, China. • The soil PAH concentrations would be doubled in the following 40 years. • The composition of PAH emissions were shifting to light PAH species. - Introduced a regression modeling approach to predict the changes of PAH concentrations in urban soil

  17. Urbanization, Economic Development and Environmental Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shushu Li

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper applies the pressure-state-response (PSR model to establish environmental quality indices for 30 administrative regions in China from 2003 to 2011 and employs panel data analysis to study the relationships among the urbanization rate, economic development and environmental change. The results reveal a remarkable inverted-U-shaped relationship between the urbanization rate and changes in regional environmental quality; the “turning point” generally appears near an urbanization rate of 60%. In addition, the degree and mode of economic development have significant, but anisotropic effects on the regional environment. Generally, at a higher degree of economic development, the environment will tend to improve, but an extensive economic growth program that simply aims to increase GDP has a clear negative impact on the environment. Overall, the results of this paper not only further confirm the “environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis”, but also expand it in a manner. The analysis in this paper implies that the inverted-U-shaped evolving relationship between environmental quality and economic growth (urbanization is universally applicable.

  18. Evaluating procedural modelling for 3D models of informal settlements in urban design activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria Rautenbach

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Three-dimensional (3D modelling and visualisation is one of the fastest growing application fields in geographic information science. 3D city models are being researched extensively for a variety of purposes and in various domains, including urban design, disaster management, education and computer gaming. These models typically depict urban business districts (downtown or suburban residential areas. Despite informal settlements being a prevailing feature of many cities in developing countries, 3D models of informal settlements are virtually non-existent. 3D models of informal settlements could be useful in various ways, e.g. to gather information about the current environment in the informal settlements, to design upgrades, to communicate these and to educate inhabitants about environmental challenges. In this article, we described the development of a 3D model of the Slovo Park informal settlement in the City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality, South Africa. Instead of using time-consuming traditional manual methods, we followed the procedural modelling technique. Visualisation characteristics of 3D models of informal settlements were described and the importance of each characteristic in urban design activities for informal settlement upgrades was assessed. Next, the visualisation characteristics of the Slovo Park model were evaluated. The results of the evaluation showed that the 3D model produced by the procedural modelling technique is suitable for urban design activities in informal settlements. The visualisation characteristics and their assessment are also useful as guidelines for developing 3D models of informal settlements. In future, we plan to empirically test the use of such 3D models in urban design projects in informal settlements.

  19. The backbone of a City Information Model (CIM) : Implementing a spatial data model for urban design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gil, J.A.; Almeida, J.; Duarte, J.P.

    2011-01-01

    We have been witnessing an increased interest in a more holistic approach to urban design practice and education. In this paper we present a spatial data model for urban design that proposes the combination of urban environment feature classes with design process feature classes. This data model is

  20. A modeling study of the impact of urban trees on ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Nowak; Kevin L. Civerolo; S. Trivikrama Rao; Gopal Sistla; Christopher J. Luley; Daniel E. Crane

    2000-01-01

    Modeling the effects of increased urban tree cover on ozone concentrations (July 13-15, 1995) from Washington, DC, to central Massachusetts reveals that urban trees generally reduce ozone concentrations in cities, but tend to increase average ozone concentrations in the overall modeling domain. During the daytime, average ozone reductions in urban areas (1 ppb) were...

  1. Can green roofs reduce urban heat stress in vulnerable urban communities: A coupled atmospheric and social modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, A.; Woodruff, S.; Budhathoki, M.; Hamlet, A. F.; Fernando, H. J. S.; Chen, F.

    2017-12-01

    Urban areas provide organized, engineered, sociological and economical infrastructure designed to provide a high quality of life, but the implementation and management of urban infrastructure has been a continued challenge. Increasing urbanization, warming climate, as well as anthropogenic heat emissions that accompany urban development generates "stress". This rapidly increasing `urban stress' affects the sustainability of cities, making populations more vulnerable to extreme hazards, such as heat. Cities are beginning to extensively use green roofs as a potential urban heat mitigation strategy. This study explores the potential of green roofs to reduce summertime temperatures in the most vulnerable neighborhoods of the Chicago metropolitan area by combining social vulnerability indices (a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity), and temperatures from mesoscale model. Numerical simulations using urbanized version the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were performed to measure rooftop temperatures, a representative variable for exposure in this study. The WRF simulations were dynamically coupled with a green roof algorithm as a part of urban parameterization within WRF. Specifically, the study examines roof surface temperature with changing green roof fractions and how would they help reduce exposure to heat stress for vulnerable urban communities. This study shows an example of applied research that can directly benefit urban communities and be used by urban planners to evaluate mitigation strategies.

  2. WHEN GROWTH IS NO LONGER THE NORM: TEACHING URBAN DESIGN IN A TIME OF TRANSFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujata Shetty

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Over the past few years, there has been increasing interest in cities that are rapidly losing population, so-called shrinking cities. This is becoming a global phenomenon, with shrinking cities found on every continent. The decline has been attributed variously to changing demographics, suburbanization, postsocialist transformation and deindustrialization. We are just beginning to develop approaches to dealing with shrinkage and its consequences – vacancy, abandonment, and limited public and private resources. However, there is currently little faith in the ability of design-related disciplines to deal with shrinking cities. Some authors argue that disciplines such as architecture, urban design and urban planning have always planned for growth and have reached their limits when dealing with shrinking cities (Oswalt, 2006. Still others suggest that restructuring should be seen as an opportunity (Vey, 2007. This paper challenges the first view and responds to the second by suggesting that design education can and must respond to these new realities. It critically examines a collaborative urban design studio that was part of an attempt to transform a part of a shrinking city in the American ‘rustbelt.’ The city, once a flourishing manufacturing center, is now facing steep economic decline along with the decline of the auto industry. It is also home to a university that is beginning efforts to revitalize neighborhoods adjacent to the campus. The studio, which brought together architecture and urban planning students from two different universities to work on a section of the city including the campus area, suggests possibilities for preparing students to work in an environment where economic growth is no longer the norm. The following lessons emerged: 1 In a shrinking city, urban designers may need to focus less on designing the solids and more on meeting the challenges of the voids. 2 In spite of urban design’s historical bias towards

  3. [A longitudinal study of urban-rural growth differences among infants fed with breast milk in six economically better areas in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    To understand the differences between urban and rural breast-fed infants' growth patterns. In economically better regions of six provinces in China, 1147 urban and 1058 rural subjects were recruited by the project respectively, and their longitudinal weight, length, and head circumference were measured from birth to 12 months old. The monitoring frequency was 16 times in total. Analysis was conducted to compare the growth patterns between 497 of urban and 764 of rural subjects meeting the breast-fed babies definition by WHO. During the first year after birth, urban breast-feeding boys' weight, length, head circumference increased by 7.13 kg, 26.9 cm, and 12.4 cm respectively, and 6.60 kg, 26.1 cm, and 11.9 cm for girls. The corresponding values of rural population were 6.70 kg, 25.7 cm and 12.4 cm for boys, and 6.20 kg, 25.0 cm, and 11.8 cm for girls respectively. The gaps existed in the three physical indexes between urban and rural breastfeeding babies were 110 - 480 g, 1.2 - 2.0 cm and 0.1 - 0.6 cm for boys, and 200 - 510 g, 1.3 - 1.7 cm, and 0.4 - 0.6 cm for girls. In about 50% of monitoring age points, monthly increments of urban boy's weight presented higher than rural samples, but only 17% for girl's weight, and boy/girl's length and head circumference. The urban-rural regional gaps in breast-fed infants' physical development were not optimistic and seemed to be wider in boys than in girls. There are still large room for improvement for growth of infants in rural areas.

  4. Models of household location and urban amenities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Duijn, Mark; Möhlmann, Jan; Mulalic, Ismir

    the drivers of economic prosperity and growth in cities. In this introductory section we discuss some evidence that motivates this idea. In ‘The Economy of Cities’ Jane Jacobs (1970) puts forward the thesis that human interaction is a crucial aspect of urban economies. Economists such as Lucas (1988) picked...... and although local labor markets may differ in many respects, it is generally the case that higher wages lower the demand for workers.1 However, if a city has good amenities it may continue to attract highly educated workers even when wages are not that high. This reasoning thus suggests an important......1.1 Skilled workers and regional development The research carried out in the HELP project concerns the importance of urban amenities for the location choices of highly educated workers. Why is this important? A general answer to this question is that such workers are generally regarded as being...

  5. Integration of LUTI models into sustainable urban mobility plans (SUMPs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaos Gavanas

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A literature review indicates that there is an increasing number of Land Use/Transport Interaction (LUTI models being used in policy analysis and support of urban land use, transport and environmental planning. In this context, LUTI models are considered to be useful for the development of scenarios during the preparatory stage of Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs. A SUMP can be defined as a strategic planning framework, proposed by the European Commission, for planning and design of an urban multimodal transport system, which combines multi-disciplinary policy analysis and decision making. The objective of a SUMP is to achieve sustainable urban mobility, i.e. accessibility for all, safety and security, reduction in emissions and energy consumption, efficient and cost-effective transport and an improvement in the urban environment. Based on the overall conceptual and methodological framework of LUTI models (Geurs and van Wee 2004, the scope of the proposed research is to fully integrate a LUTI model into a contemporary transport planning framework and, more specifically, into the SUMP structure. This paper focuses on the configuration of the integration pattern, according to which a LUTI model may evolve and interact with the planning process throughout the eleven elements of the SUMP, as well as the evaluation of the benefits and drawbacks from the implementation of the proposed pattern for the enhancement of SUMP and overall promotion of sustainable urban planning.

  6. Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire

    2018-01-01

    Hydrological models are extensively used in urban water management, development and evaluation of future scenarios and research activities. There is a growing interest in the development of fully distributed and grid-based models. However, some complex questions related to scale effects are not yet fully understood and still remain open issues in urban hydrology. In this paper we propose a two-step investigation framework to illustrate the extent of scale effects in urban hydrology. First, fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependence observed within distributed data input into urban hydrological models. Then an intensive multi-scale modelling work is carried out to understand scale effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations are conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model is implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 to 5 m. Results clearly exhibit scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modelling. The applicability of fractal concepts highlights the scale dependence observed within distributed data. Patterns of geophysical data change when the size of the observation pixel changes. The multi-scale modelling investigation confirms scale effects on hydrological model performance. Results are analysed over three ranges of scales identified in the fractal analysis and confirmed through modelling. This work also discusses some remaining issues in urban hydrology modelling related to the availability of high-quality data at high resolutions, and model numerical instabilities as well as the computation time requirements. The main findings of this paper enable a replacement of traditional methods of model calibration by innovative methods of model resolution alteration based on the spatial data variability and scaling of flows in urban hydrology.

  7. Urbanization and Slum Formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phua, Kai Hong

    2007-01-01

    The formation of slums need not be inevitable with rapid urbanization. Such an argument appears to be contradicted by evidence of large slum populations in a large number of developing countries and particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions like Asia. The evidence discussed suggests that city authorities faced with rapid urban development lack the capacity to cope with the diverse demands for infrastructural provision to meet economic and social needs. Not only are strategic planning and intervention major issues in agenda to manage rapid urbanization, but city governments are not effectively linking the economic development trajectory to implications for urban growth and, hence, housing needs. In the following discussion, a case study is presented in support of the argument that city governments have to first recognize and then act to establish the link that is crucial between economic development, urban growth, and housing. This is the agendum that has been largely neglected by city and national governments that have been narrowly focused on economic growth with the consequent proliferation of slum formation as a housing solution. PMID:17387618

  8. The future is urban.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-05-01

    Urban centers are growing due to natural increase and the movement of people from rural areas. Urban areas are the traditional centers of trade, science, and culture, but growth over a threshold results in crime, congestion, and pollution. Sustainability is threatened in modern towns that are dependent on other sources for food, fuel, or water. Housing, water, food supplies, and sanitation, communication, and transportation services are threatened in rapidly growing cities. In 1990 45/100 people lived in towns or cities. Hyper-cities have grown in number to 20, of which 14 are in developing countries. 83% of world population increase is expected to occur in cities. In 48 countries with faster population growth cities had growth rates averaging about 6.1% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged 2.8%. In 49 countries with slower population growth, urban growth rates averaged only 3.6% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged about 1.8%. Squatter settlements are endemic to urban areas that are congested and without basic services, limited housing particularly for the poor, and few job opportunities. The number of street children in urban areas has risen. This child population is subjected to low wages, overwork, auto accidents, poor health, and lack of social services. Malnutrition is a more serious issue in urban areas. In the Philippines malnutrition is 3% nationally and 9% in Metro Manila. Rural land reform in the Philippines is no longer a viable solution. In Metro Manila squatters are expected to increase in number to 4 million people by the year 2000, which would be almost 50% of total population. The squatter areas are areas of neglect, decay, and poverty. Cities are viewed as development's "blind alleys."

  9. Urban Studies: A Learning Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Terry L.; Sundeen, Richard

    1979-01-01

    The urban studies learning model described in this article was found to increase students' self-esteem, imbue a more flexible and open perspective, contribute to the capacity for self-direction, produce increases on the feeling reactivity, spontaneity, and acceptance of aggression scales, and expand interpersonal competence. (Author/WI)

  10. Urbanization impacts on mammals across urban-forest edges and a predictive model of edge effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nélida R Villaseñor

    Full Text Available With accelerating rates of urbanization worldwide, a better understanding of ecological processes at the wildland-urban interface is critical to conserve biodiversity. We explored the effects of high and low-density housing developments on forest-dwelling mammals. Based on habitat characteristics, we expected a gradual decline in species abundance across forest-urban edges and an increased decline rate in higher contrast edges. We surveyed arboreal mammals in sites of high and low housing density along 600 m transects that spanned urban areas and areas turn on adjacent native forest. We also surveyed forest controls to test whether edge effects extended beyond our edge transects. We fitted models describing richness, total abundance and individual species abundance. Low-density housing developments provided suitable habitat for most arboreal mammals. In contrast, high-density housing developments had lower species richness, total abundance and individual species abundance, but supported the highest abundances of an urban adapter (Trichosurus vulpecula. We did not find the predicted gradual decline in species abundance. Of four species analysed, three exhibited no response to the proximity of urban boundaries, but spilled over into adjacent urban habitat to differing extents. One species (Petaurus australis had an extended negative response to urban boundaries, suggesting that urban development has impacts beyond 300 m into adjacent forest. Our empirical work demonstrates that high-density housing developments have negative effects on both community and species level responses, except for one urban adapter. We developed a new predictive model of edge effects based on our results and the literature. To predict animal responses across edges, our framework integrates for first time: (1 habitat quality/preference, (2 species response with the proximity to the adjacent habitat, and (3 spillover extent/sensitivity to adjacent habitat boundaries. This

  11. Model of urban water management towards water sensitive city: a literature review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maftuhah, D. I.; Anityasari, M.; Sholihah, M.

    2018-04-01

    Nowadays, many cities are facing with complex issues such as climate change, social, economic, culture, and environmental problems, especially urban water. In other words, the city has to struggle with the challenge to make sure its sustainability in all aspects. This research focuses on how to ensure the city sustainability and resilience on urban water management. Many research were not only conducted in urban water management, but also in sustainability itself. Moreover, water sustainability shifts from urban water management into water sensitive city. This transition needs comprehensive aspects such as social, institutional dynamics, technical innovation, and local contents. Some literatures about model of urban water management and the transition towards water sensitivity had been reviewed in this study. This study proposed discussion about model of urban water management and the transition towards water sensitive city. Research findings suggest that there are many different models developed in urban water management, but they are not comprehensive yet and only few studies discuss about the transition towards water sensitive and resilience city. The drawbacks of previous research can identify and fulfill the gap of this study. Therefore, the paper contributes a general framework for the urban water management modelling studies.

  12. Modelling Urban Sprawl Using Remotely Sensed Data: A Case Study of Chennai City, Tamilnadu

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajchandar Padmanaban

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Urban sprawl (US, propelled by rapid population growth leads to the shrinkage of productive agricultural lands and pristine forests in the suburban areas and, in turn, adversely affects the provision of ecosystem services. The quantification of US is thus crucial for effective urban planning and environmental management. Like many megacities in fast growing developing countries, Chennai, the capital of Tamilnadu and one of the business hubs in India, has experienced extensive US triggered by the doubling of total population over the past three decades. However, the extent and level of US has not yet been quantified and a prediction for future extent of US is lacking. We employed the Random Forest (RF classification on Landsat imageries from 1991, 2003, and 2016, and computed six landscape metrics to delineate the extent of urban areas within a 10 km suburban buffer of Chennai. The level of US was then quantified using Renyi’s entropy. A land change model was subsequently used to project land cover for 2027. A 70.35% expansion in urban areas was observed mainly towards the suburban periphery of Chennai between 1991 and 2016. The Renyi’s entropy value for year 2016 was 0.9, exhibiting a two-fold level of US when compared to 1991. The spatial metrics values indicate that the existing urban areas became denser and the suburban agricultural, forests and particularly barren lands were transformed into fragmented urban settlements. The forecasted land cover for 2027 indicates a conversion of 13,670.33 ha (16.57% of the total landscape of existing forests and agricultural lands into urban areas with an associated increase in the entropy value to 1.7, indicating a tremendous level of US. Our study provides useful metrics for urban planning authorities to address the social-ecological consequences of US and to protect ecosystem services.

  13. Redistribution, Growth, and Inclusion : The Development of the Urban Housing System in China, 1949-2015

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deng, W.; Hoekstra, J.S.C.M.; Elsinga, M.G.

    2017-01-01

    This paper explains the development of the urban housing system in China from 1949 to 2011 with an emphasis on the factors driving housing inequality in each policy period. We argue that the logic underpinning the housing policy had shifted from socialist redistribution to the stimulation of growth

  14. Modeling Exposure to Heat Stress with a Simple Urban Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Hoffmann

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available As a first step in modeling health-related urban well-being (UrbWellth, a mathematical model is constructed that dynamically simulates heat stress exposure of commuters in an idealized city. This is done by coupling the Simple Urban Radiation Model (SURM, which computes the mean radiant temperature ( T m r t , with a newly developed multi-class multi-mode traffic model. Simulation results with parameters chosen for the city of Hamburg for a hot summer day show that commuters are potentially most exposed to heat stress in the early afternoon when T m r t has its maximum. Varying the morphology with respect to street width and building height shows that a more compact city configuration reduces T m r t and therefore the exposure to heat stress. The impact resulting from changes in the city structure on traffic is simulated to determine the time spent outside during the commute. While the time in traffic jams increases for compact cities, the total commuting time decreases due to shorter distances between home and work place. Concerning adaptation measures, it is shown that increases in the albedo of the urban surfaces lead to an increase in daytime heat stress. Dramatic increases in heat stress exposure are found when both, wall and street albedo, are increased.

  15. Assessment of Urban Ecosystem Health Based on Entropy Weight Extension Decision Model in Urban Agglomeration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Yang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban ecosystem health evaluation can assist in sustainable ecological management at a regional level. This study examined urban agglomeration ecosystem health in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River with entropy weight and extension theories. The model overcomes information omissions and subjectivity problems in the evaluation process of urban ecosystem health. Results showed that human capital and education, economic development level as well as urban infrastructure have a significant effect on the health states of urban agglomerations. The health status of the urban agglomeration’s ecosystem was not optimistic in 2013. The majority of the cities were unhealthy or verging on unhealthy, accounting for 64.52% of the total number of cities in the urban agglomeration. The regional differences of the 31 cities’ ecosystem health are significant. The cause originated from an imbalance in economic development and the policy guidance of city development. It is necessary to speed up the integration process to promote coordinated regional development. The present study will aid us in understanding and advancing the health situation of the urban ecosystem in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and will provide an efficient urban ecosystem health evaluation method that can be used in other areas.

  16. Minicities in suburbia – A model for urban sustainability?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Gunnar Røe

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In the 1970s it was argued that suburban centres in the US had developed into “minicities”, offering a wide range of possibilities for consumption, cultural events and a sense of the urban. In this article we explore to which extent this description of minicities may be valid in two cases in the suburban hinterland of Oslo. We further discuss whether the “urbanization” of these suburban centres may contribute to a more sustainable urban development, with respect to everyday travel. We conclude that the growth of these minicities may reduce car travel, either because of their excellent public transport connection to the (big city centre and other nodes in the increasingly decentralized urban region, or because they may serve as a substitute for the city centre. However, an empirical investigation of the role of minicities must be based on a deeper understanding of the social and cultural processes that guide the everyday life of today’s sub­urbanites.

  17. MODELLING CHALLENGES TO FORECAST URBAN GOODS DEMAND FOR RAIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio COMI

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the new research challenges for forecasting urban goods demand by rail. In fact, the growing interest to find urban logistics solutions for improving city sustainability and liveability, mainly due to the reduction of urban road accessibility and environmental constraints, has pushed to explore solutions alternative to the road. Multimodal urban logistics, based on the use of railway, seem an interesting alternative solution, but it remained mainly at conceptual level. Few studies have explored the factors, that push actors to find competitive such a system with respect to the road, and modelling framework for forecasting the relative demand. Therefore, paper reviews the current literature, investigates the factors involved in choosing such a mode, and finally, recalls a recent modelling framework and hence proposes some advancements that allow to point out the rail transport alternative.

  18. Urban agglomerations in the function of regional integration of Serbia in South-Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tošić Dragutin

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article is analyzed the importance of urban agglomerations in the regional organization of Serbian space at one side, and on the other side they are taken as carriers of the future integration of the Serbian urban system into the urban of the South-Eastern Europe (SEE. In the regional configuration of Serbia, more different forms of territorial impacts of urbanization, urban areas and urban regions. High level of urban centralization is formed under the influence of the population density and functions of the metropolitan area of Belgrade. The problems of unbalanced disposition of population growth and qualitative transformation of urban centers are stressed and analyzed. Based on the role in integration process in the SEE, the metropolitan region of Belgrade is pointed out as its principal carrier and the metropolitan region of Niš as its secondary carrier, as well as the urban centers of importance for the cross-border regional cooperation. As the most suitable instrument of internal regional integration the model of Functional Urban Regions (FURs or Functional Urban Areas (FUAs is proposed, and for external regional integration is proposed the model of Metropolitan European Growth Areas (MEGAs. The coherent short-term and long-term development strategies for Serbian towns and their regions seem absent.

  19. Urban drainage models simplifying uncertainty analysis for practitioners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Deletic, Ana

    2013-01-01

    in each measured/observed datapoint; an issue that is commonly overlooked in the uncertainty analysis of urban drainage models. This comparison allows the user to intuitively estimate the optimum number of simulations required to conduct uncertainty analyses. The output of the method includes parameter......There is increasing awareness about uncertainties in the modelling of urban drainage systems and, as such, many new methods for uncertainty analyses have been developed. Despite this, all available methods have limitations which restrict their widespread application among practitioners. Here...

  20. Sensitivity of a complex urban air quality model to input data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seigneur, C.; Tesche, T.W.; Roth, P.M.; Reid, L.E.

    1981-01-01

    In recent years, urban-scale photochemical simulation models have been developed that are of practical value for predicting air quality and analyzing the impacts of alternative emission control strategies. Although the performance of some urban-scale models appears to be acceptable, the demanding data requirements of such models have prompted concern about the costs of data acquistion, which might be high enough to preclude use of photochemical models for many urban areas. To explore this issue, sensitivity studies with the Systems Applications, Inc. (SAI) Airshed Model, a grid-based time-dependent photochemical dispersion model, have been carried out for the Los Angeles basin. Reductions in the amount and quality of meteorological, air quality and emission data, as well as modifications of the model gridded structure, have been analyzed. This paper presents and interprets the results of 22 sensitivity studies. A sensitivity-uncertainty index is defined to rank input data needs for an urban photochemical model. The index takes into account the sensitivity of model predictions to the amount of input data, the costs of data acquistion, and the uncertainties in the air quality model input variables. The results of these sensitivity studies are considered in light of the limitations of specific attributes of the Los Angeles basin and of the modeling conditions (e.g., choice of wind model, length of simulation time). The extent to which the results may be applied to other urban areas also is discussed

  1. Integrated Modelling and Performance Analysis of Green Roof Technologies in Urban Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xi; Mijic, Ana; Maksimovic, Cedo

    2014-05-01

    As a result of the changing global climate and increase in urbanisation, the behaviour of the urban environment has been significantly altered, causing an increase in both the frequency of extreme weather events, such as flooding and drought, and also the associated costs. Moreover, uncontrolled or inadequately planned urbanisation can exacerbate the damage. The Blue-Green Dream (BGD) project therefore develops a series of components for urban areas that link urban vegetated areas (green infrastructure) with existing urban water (blue) systems, which will enhance the synergy of urban blue and green systems and provide effective, multifunctional BGD solutions to support urban adaptation to future climatic changes. Coupled with new urban water management technologies and engineering, multifunctional benefits can be gained. Some of the technologies associated with BGD solutions include green roofs, swales that might deal with runoff more effectively and urban river restoration that can produce benefits similar to those produced from sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS). For effective implementation of these technologies, however, appropriate tools and methodologies for designing and modelling BGD solutions are required to be embedded within urban drainage models. Although several software packages are available for modelling urban drainage, the way in which green roofs and other BGD solutions are integrated into these models is not yet fully developed and documented. This study develops a physically based mass and energy balance model to monitor, test and quantitatively evaluate green roof technology for integrated BGD solutions. The assessment of environmental benefits will be limited to three aspects: (1) reduction of the total runoff volume, (2) delay in the initiation of runoff, and (3) reduction of building energy consumption, rather than water quality, visual, social or economic impacts. This physically based model represents water and heat dynamics in a

  2. An analysis of the consequences of the phenomenon of urbanization, and pollution of the cities, using economic evaluation models

    OpenAIRE

    Abouzar Fathi; Ali Fathi; Mansour Parvin; Noushin Dolatyari

    2014-01-01

    Increasing concerns about global warming and climate change in recent is more serious. Weather problems, along with the accumulation of dirt on the economy and other aspects of human life, they affect. Urban growth and urbanization, the most striking feature of social change - the economy, has been in the last two centuries. Presently the growth of cities, especially in developing countries under led to urbanization, coupled with the loss of environmental and human ecology is. In this period,...

  3. Studying the factors affecting urban dispersion in mashhad metropolis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    solutions to control this problem. The tools used in this research were GIS software for mapping, quantitative methods of Holdren Model, urban primacy index, and area to population growth rate for review and analysis, and at first by examining area to population growth rate, Mashhad- developmental process map, Holdren ...

  4. Population in urban development and the practical problems of urban planning policy in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Uyanga

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the pattern of recent growth in African towns, examines the population component in this growth process and discusses the attendant urban planning problems. The contention in the study is that there are problems of definition. policy enunciation, and organisational co-ordination in the conceptualization. planning. orchestration and implementation of urban development and service systems. The magnitude of African urban developmental problems, and its multi-faceted nature demands that the latest in scientific knowledge and technological innovations should be integrated and incorporated into the urban planning and implementation processes.

  5. System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian; Shao, Long; Zhao, Tianyu

    2015-09-15

    With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. A blueprint for strategic urban research: the urban piazza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourtit, Karima; Nijkamp, Peter; Franklin, Rachel S; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés

    2014-01-01

    Urban research in many countries has failed to keep up with the pace of rapidly and constantly evolving urban change. The growth of cities, the increasing complexity of their functions and the complex intra- and inter-urban linkages in this 'urban century' demand new approaches to urban analysis, which, from a systemic perspective, supersede the existing fragmentation in urban studies. In this paper we propose the concept of the urban piazza as a framework in order to address some of the inefficiencies associated with current urban analysis. By combining wealth-creating potential with smart urban mobility, ecological resilience and social buzz in this integrated and systemic framework, the aim is to set the basis for a ' New Urban World ' research blueprint, which lays the foundation for a broader and more integrated research programme for strategic urban issues.

  7. Linear growth increased in young children in an urban slum of Haiti: a randomized controlled trial of a lipid-based nutrient supplement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iannotti, Lora L; Dulience, Sherlie Jean Louis; Green, Jamie; Joseph, Saminetha; François, Judith; Anténor, Marie-Lucie; Lesorogol, Carolyn; Mounce, Jacqueline; Nickerson, Nathan M

    2014-01-01

    Haiti has experienced rapid urbanization that has exacerbated poverty and undernutrition in large slum areas. Stunting affects 1 in 5 young children. We aimed to test the efficacy of a daily lipid-based nutrient supplement (LNS) for increased linear growth in young children. Healthy, singleton infants aged 6-11 mo (n = 589) were recruited from an urban slum of Cap Haitien and randomly assigned to receive: 1) a control; 2) a 3-mo LNS; or 3) a 6-mo LNS. The LNS provided 108 kcal and other nutrients including vitamin A, vitamin B-12, iron, and zinc at ≥80% of the recommended amounts. Infants were followed monthly on growth, morbidity, and developmental outcomes over a 6-mo intervention period and at one additional time point 6 mo postintervention to assess sustained effects. The Bonferroni multiple comparisons test was applied, and generalized least-squares (GLS) regressions with mixed effects was used to examine impacts longitudinally. Baseline characteristics did not differ by trial arm except for a higher mean age in the 6-mo LNS group. GLS modeling showed LNS supplementation for 6 mo significantly increased the length-for-age z score (±SE) by 0.13 ± 0.05 and the weight-for-age z score by 0.12 ± 0.02 compared with in the control group after adjustment for child age (P < 0.001). The effects were sustained 6 mo postintervention. Morbidity and developmental outcomes did not differ by trial arm. A low-energy, fortified product improved the linear growth of young children in this urban setting. The trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01552512.

  8. Sustainable urban growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraud, Pierre-Noel

    2011-01-01

    The principal messages from Energy and urban innovation are presented. This report by the World Energy Council has examined the challenges related to energy in big cities (in particular 'mega-cities'), the policies that are being or could be implemented, and the role of firms in this implementation. Considerable progress can be made by using existing techniques. The main difficulty has to do with diffusing them. There is a need for organizational and institutional innovations that will stimulate players, coordinate their actions and speed up the tempo of change

  9. Nested High Resolution Modeling of the Impact of Urbanization on Regional Climate in Three Vast Urban Agglomerations in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Feng, Jinming; Yan, Zhongwei; Hu, Yonghong; Jia, Gensuo

    2013-04-01

    In this paper, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to the Urban Canopy Model (UCM) is employed to simulate the impact of urbanization on the regional climate over three vast city agglomerations in China. Based on high resolution land use and land cover data, two scenarios are designed to represent the non-urban and current urban land use distributions. By comparing the results of two nested, high resolution numerical experiments, the spatial and temporal changes on surface air temperature, heat stress index, surface energy budget and precipitation due to urbanization are analyzed and quantified. Urban expansion increases the surface air temperature in urban areas by about 1? and this climatic forcing of urbanization on temperature is more pronounced in summer and nighttime than other seasons and daytime. The heat stress intensity, which reflects the combined effects of temperature and humidity, is enhanced by about 0.5 units in urban areas. The regional incoming solar radiation increases after urban expansion, which may be caused by the reduction of cloud fraction. The increased temperature and roughness of the urban surface lead to enhanced convergence. Meanwhile, the planetary boundary layer is deepened and water vapor is mixed more evenly in the lower atmosphere. The deficit of water vapor leads to less convective available potential energy and more convective inhibition energy. Finally, these combined effects may reduce the rainfall amount over urban area mainly in summer and change the regional precipitation pattern to a certain extent.

  10. ANALYTICAL AND SIMULATION PLANNING MODEL OF URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Borisovich Nikolaev

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article described the structure of the analytical and simulation models to make informed decisions in the planning of urban passenger transport. Designed UML diagram that describes the relationship of classes of the proposed model. A description of the main agents of the model developed in the simulation AnyLogic. Designed user interface integration with GIS map. Also provides simulation results that allow concluding about her health and the possibility of its use in solving planning problems of urban passenger transport.

  11. Sustained growth but non-sustainable urbanisation in Penang, Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fold, N; Wangel, A

    1998-05-01

    Penang, Malaysia, has been a city characterized by urban growth and rapid industrialization for the past 25 years. Foreign capital, especially from the transnational electronics industry, has spurred the process of urban growth in the city. While the state government is clearly trying to copy and adapt some form of a Singapore model of development and growth in Penang, the quantitative and qualitative demands for labor exceed the available supply from the country's northern states. Local and national labor policies are decided without the involvement of trade unions, which lack the strength to substantially improve wages or influence the institutions of the labor market. Therefore, an energized labor market attempts to balance the upgrading of skills and the control of wages. Focus upon sustainable urbanization will renew the debate on urban, export-oriented industrialization in southeast Asia.

  12. Urbanization in Kenya: Urbanization Trends and Prospects; Rural Development and Urban Growth. An International Urbanization Survey Report to the Ford Foundation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurenti, Luigi; Gerhart, John

    Two articles on the urbanization of Kenya are presented in this survey. The first one, "Urbanization Trends and Prospects," by Luigi Laurenti, states that urbanization has only recently been recognized as a problem of some importance in Kenya, and this recognition is far from comprehensive. Consequently, public policy--and especially…

  13. Some structural aspects of urbanization in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafiq, M; Hailemariam, A

    1987-07-01

    This article studies the emerging patterns of urbanization in Ethiopia. Over the period from 1967-1984, a number of structural changes have occurred which are likely to play a dominant role in the future urban growth in Ethiopia. In spite of its long history of settled population, Ethiopia did not witness sustained growth of urban centers. Ethiopia is 1 of the least urbanized areas in the Third World. A 3rd aspect of urbanization in Ethiopia is the wide range of regional differentials in the level of urbanization. Most of the urban population is concentrated in 2 administrative regions--Shoa and Eritrea. A more balanced urban growth may, inter alia, involve a better spread in terms of higher education, industrialization, provision of health and social services, and the development of communication and commercial infrastructure. Another striking feature of urbanization in Ethiopia is that growth has not been disproportionately concentrated in the largest urban centers. The largest urban centers have not assumed an inordinately higher level of primacy. The basic form of the curve depicting the relationship between the size of a locality and its rank has remained unchanged over the period. The post-revolution land reforms and the new socioeconomic structure emerging from reorganization of the society appear to have a rural-urban migration inhibiting effect. Some of the country's regional differentials may be associated with environmental factors.

  14. Urbanization and the wealth of nations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, David E; Canning, David; Fink, Günther

    2008-02-08

    The proportion of a country's population living in urban areas is highly correlated with its level of income. Urban areas offer economies of scale and richer market structures, and there is strong evidence that workers in urban areas are individually more productive, and earn more, than rural workers. However, rapid urbanization is also associated with crowding, environmental degradation, and other impediments to productivity. Overall, we find no evidence that the level of urbanization affects the rate of economic growth. Our findings weaken the rationale for either encouraging or discouraging urbanization as part of a strategy for economic growth.

  15. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Guzy

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

  16. Environmental Modelling of Remediation of Urban Contaminated Areas. Report of the Urban Remediation Working Group of EMRAS Theme 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    The Urban Remediation Working Group of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for RAdiation Safety) programme was concerned with remediation assessment for urban areas contaminated with dispersed radionuclides. Types of events that could result in dispersal or deposition of radionuclides in an urban situation include both intentional and unintentional events, and releases could range from major events involving a nuclear facility to small events such as a transportation accident. The primary objective of the Urban Remediation Working Group was (1) to test and improve the prediction of dose rates and cumulative doses to humans for urban areas contaminated with dispersed radionuclides, including prediction of changes in radionuclide concentrations or dose rates as a function of location and time; (2) to identify the most important pathways for human exposure; and (3) to predict the reduction in radionuclide concentrations, dose rates, or doses expected to result from various countermeasures or remediation efforts. Specific objectives of the Working Group have included (1) the identification of realistic scenarios for a wide variety of situations, (2) comparison and testing of approaches and models for assessing the significance of a given contamination event and for guiding decisions about countermeasures or remediation measures implemented to reduce doses to humans or to clean up the contaminated area, and (3) improving the understanding of processes and situations that affect the spread of contamination to aid in the development of appropriate models and parameter values for use in assessment of these situations. The major activities of the Working Group have included three areas. The first of these was a review of the available modelling approaches and computer models for use in assessing urban contamination and potential countermeasures or remediation activities. The second area of work was a modelling exercise based on data

  17. A Backward-Lagrangian-Stochastic Footprint Model for the Urban Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chenghao; Wang, Zhi-Hua; Yang, Jiachuan; Li, Qi

    2018-02-01

    Built terrains, with their complexity in morphology, high heterogeneity, and anthropogenic impact, impose substantial challenges in Earth-system modelling. In particular, estimation of the source areas and footprints of atmospheric measurements in cities requires realistic representation of the landscape characteristics and flow physics in urban areas, but has hitherto been heavily reliant on large-eddy simulations. In this study, we developed physical parametrization schemes for estimating urban footprints based on the backward-Lagrangian-stochastic algorithm, with the built environment represented by street canyons. The vertical profile of mean streamwise velocity is parametrized for the urban canopy and boundary layer. Flux footprints estimated by the proposed model show reasonable agreement with analytical predictions over flat surfaces without roughness elements, and with experimental observations over sparse plant canopies. Furthermore, comparisons of canyon flow and turbulence profiles and the subsequent footprints were made between the proposed model and large-eddy simulation data. The results suggest that the parametrized canyon wind and turbulence statistics, based on the simple similarity theory used, need to be further improved to yield more realistic urban footprint modelling.

  18. Understanding Resilient Urban Futures: A Systemic Modelling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralph Chapman

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The resilience of cities in response to natural disasters and long-term climate change has emerged as a focus of academic and policy attention. In particular, how to understand the interconnectedness of urban and natural systems is a key issue. This paper introduces an urban model that can be used to evaluate city resilience outcomes under different policy scenarios. The model is the Wellington Integrated Land Use-Transport-Environment Model (WILUTE. It considers the city (i.e., Wellington as a complex system characterized by interactions between a variety of internal urban processes (social, economic and physical and the natural environment. It is focused on exploring the dynamic relations between human activities (the geographic distribution of housing and employment, infrastructure layout, traffic flows and energy consumption, environmental effects (carbon emissions, influences on local natural and ecological systems and potential natural disasters (e.g., inundation due to sea level rise and storm events faced under different policy scenarios. The model gives insights that are potentially useful for policy to enhance the city’s resilience, by modelling outcomes, such as the potential for reduction in transportation energy use, and changes in the vulnerability of the city’s housing stock and transport system to sea level rise.

  19. Does Urban Form Affect Urban NO2? Satellite-Based Evidence for More than 1200 Cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechle, Matthew J; Millet, Dylan B; Marshall, Julian D

    2017-11-07

    Modifying urban form may be a strategy to mitigate urban air pollution. For example, evidence suggests that urban form can affect motor vehicle usage, a major contributor to urban air pollution. We use satellite-based measurements of urban form and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) to explore relationships between urban form and air pollution for a global data  set of 1274 cities. Three of the urban form metrics studied (contiguity, circularity, and vegetation) have a statistically significant relationship with urban NO 2 ; their combined effect could be substantial. As illustration, if findings presented here are causal, that would suggest that if Christchurch, New Zealand (a city at the 75th percentile for all three urban-form metrics, and with a network of buses, trams, and bicycle facilities) was transformed to match the urban form of Indio - Cathedral City, California, United States (a city at the 25th percentile for those same metrics, and exhibiting sprawl-like suburban development), our models suggest that Christchurch's NO 2 concentrations would be ∼60% higher than its current level. We also find that the combined effect of urban form on NO 2 is larger for small cities (β × IQR = -0.46 for cities urban population and are where much of the future urban growth is expected to occur. This work highlights the need for future study of how changes in urban form and related land use and transportation policies impact urban air pollution, especially for small cities.

  20. Macro-Level Modeling of Urban Transportation Safety: Case-Study of Mashhad (Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammadi Mehdi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Transportation safety can be aimed at the planning stage in order to adopt safety management and evaluate the long-time policies. The main objective of this research was to make use of crash prediction models in urban transportation planning process. As such, it was attempted to gather data on the results of transportation master plan as well as Mashhad urban crash database. Two modelling method, generalized linear model with negative binomial distribution and geographically weighted regression, were considered as the methods used in this research. Trip variables, including trip by car, trip by bus, trip by bus services and trip by school services, were significant at 95%. The results indicated that both finalized models were competent in predicting urban crashes in Mashhad. Regarding to results urban transportation safety will be improved by changing the modal share for example from private car to bus. The application of the process presented in this study can improve the urban transportation safety management processes and lead to more accurate prediction in terms of crashes across urban traffic areas.

  1. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Beijing’s Urbanization Efficiency from 2005 to 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Qi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In the context of Beijing’s accelerated economic growth, a high urbanization rate and associated urban problems pose challenges. We collected panel data for the period 2005–2014 to examine the relationship between Beijing’s urbanization efficiency and economic growth rate as well as its spatial patterns of dynamic and static urbanization efficiency. Specifically, we developed a comprehensive index system for assessing Beijing’s economic growth rate and urbanization efficiency at the district (county level. Economic level was selected as an indicator of the economic growth rate. Economic urbanization and consumption levels were selected as indicators of urbanization efficiency. We applied a sequential Malmquist total factor productivity index to estimate the dynamic urbanization efficiency and economic growth rate at the district/country level from 2005 to 2014. We measured Beijing’s static urbanization efficiency in 2014 using a data envelopment analysis model and assessed its spatiotemporal dynamics and urbanization efficiency pattern using a Getis–Ord General Gi index. The results indicated an overall average increase of 1.07% in the total factor urbanization efficiency (TFUE, with an average value of 0.91, while the total factor economic growth rate (TFEE remained stable at an average value of 0.979. The low TFUE level evidently continues to significantly constrain TFEE. Both TFUE and TFEE levels in the Capital Function Core (CFC area were significant, exhibiting high inputs and outputs, while these levels in the Urban Function Development (UFD, City Development Zone (CDZ, and Ecological Conservation Development (ECD areas were below 1 for most periods, strongly indicating inefficient factor allocation. In view of this spatial pattern, TFUE’s regional spatial distribution appears remarkable, showing a decreasing trend from north to south in Beijing, excluding CFC areas. During the period 2005–2014, the CFC area and

  2. Nordic urban nature recreation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cole, Scott; Lindhjem, Henrik; Zandersen, Marianne

    the associated nonmarket welfare benefits. The study stresses the need to collect user data to better understand visitation patterns, which can be combined with valuation methods to provide evidence of economic benefits associated with e.g., hiking, cycling, skiing, paddling and other recreation activities. Once......The Nordic countries continue to experience growth of urban areas, which provides benefits like economic growth, but also imposes economic costs in terms of reduced ecosystem services. This report focuses on urban nature recreation and highlights economic methods and data that can help capture...... these benefits are visible, decision-makers will have a better basis to balance economic growth with the environmental costs it imposes on urban ecosystem services....

  3. Case Studies of Successful Assistance in Urban School Improvement Programs. I. The Teacher Growth Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piety-Jacobs, Sharon R.

    As part of a research project on "Patterns of Successful Assistance in Urban School Programs," this paper presents a case study of an assister's work in a Teacher Growth Program (TGP) at an elementary school in Staten Island, New York. The school has an experienced teaching staff, a supportive principal, a cross-sectional student…

  4. Integrating the simulation of domestic water demand behaviour to an urban water model using agent based modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koutiva, Ifigeneia; Makropoulos, Christos

    2015-04-01

    The urban water system's sustainable evolution requires tools that can analyse and simulate the complete cycle including both physical and cultural environments. One of the main challenges, in this regard, is the design and development of tools that are able to simulate the society's water demand behaviour and the way policy measures affect it. The effects of these policy measures are a function of personal opinions that subsequently lead to the formation of people's attitudes. These attitudes will eventually form behaviours. This work presents the design of an ABM tool for addressing the social dimension of the urban water system. The created tool, called Urban Water Agents' Behaviour (UWAB) model, was implemented, using the NetLogo agent programming language. The main aim of the UWAB model is to capture the effects of policies and environmental pressures to water conservation behaviour of urban households. The model consists of agents representing urban households that are linked to each other creating a social network that influences the water conservation behaviour of its members. Household agents are influenced as well by policies and environmental pressures, such as drought. The UWAB model simulates behaviour resulting in the evolution of water conservation within an urban population. The final outcome of the model is the evolution of the distribution of different conservation levels (no, low, high) to the selected urban population. In addition, UWAB is implemented in combination with an existing urban water management simulation tool, the Urban Water Optioneering Tool (UWOT) in order to create a modelling platform aiming to facilitate an adaptive approach of water resources management. For the purposes of this proposed modelling platform, UWOT is used in a twofold manner: (1) to simulate domestic water demand evolution and (2) to simulate the response of the water system to the domestic water demand evolution. The main advantage of the UWAB - UWOT model

  5. URBAN GROWTH AND WATER QUALITY IN THIMPHU, BHUTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandu Giri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Detailed study was undertaken in 2008 and 2009 on assessment of water quality of River Wang Chhu which flows through Thimphu urban area, the capital city of Bhutan. The water samples were examined at upstream of urban area, within the urban area and its downstream. The water quality was analyzed by studying the physico-chemical, biological and benthic macro-invertebrates. The water quality data obtained during present study are discussed in relation to land use/land cover changes (LULC and various ongoing human activities at upstream, within the each activity areas and it’s downstream. Analyses of satellite imagery of 1990 and 2008 using GIS revealed that over a period of eighteen years the forest, scrub and agricultural areas have decreased whereas urban area and road network have increased considerably. The forest cover, agriculture area and scrub decreased from 43.3% to 42.57%, 6.88% to 5.33% and 42.55% to 29.42%, respectively. The LULC changes effect water quality in many ways. The water temperature, pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, turbidity, nitrate, phosphate, chloride, total coliform, and biological oxygen demand were lower at upstream and higher in urban area. On the other hand dissolved oxygen was found higher at upstream and lower in urban area. The pollution sensitive benthic macro- invertebrates population were dominant at upstream sampling sites whereas pollution tolerant benthic macro-invertebrates were found abundant in urban area and its immediate downstream. The rapid development of urban infrastructure in Thimphu city may be posing serious threats to water regime in terms of its quality. Though the deterioration of water quality is restricted to a few localized areas, the trend is serious and needs proper attention of policy planners and decision makers. Proper treatment of effluents from urban areas is urgently needed to reduce water pollution in such affected areas to check further deterioration of water quality

  6. URBAN GROWTH AND WATER QUALITY IN THIMPHU, BHUTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandu Giri

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Detailed study was undertaken in 2008 and 2009 on assessment of water quality of River Wang Chhu which flows through Thimphu urban area, the capital city of Bhutan. The water samples were examined at upstream of urban area, within the urban area and its downstream. The water samples were analyzed by studying the physico-chemical, biological and benthic macro-invertebrates. The water quality data obtained during present study are discussed in relation to land use/land cover changes(LULC and various ongoing human activities at upstream, within the each activity areas and it’s downstream. Analyses of satellite imagery of 1990 and 2008 using GIS revealed that over a period of eighteen years the forest, scrub and agricultural areas have decreased whereas urban area and road network have increased considerably. The forest cover, agriculture area and scrub decreased from 43.3% to 42.57%, 6.88% to 5.33% and 42.55% to 29.42%, respectively. The LULC changes effect water quality in many ways. The water temperature, pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, turbidity, nitrate, phosphate, chloride, total coliform, and biological oxygen demand were lower at upstream and higher in urban area. On the other hand dissolved oxygen was found higher at upstream and lower in urban area. The pollution sensitive benthic macro-invertebrates population were dominant at upstream sampling sites whereas pollution tolerant benthic macro-invertebrates were found abundant in urban area and its immediate downstream. The rapid development of urban infrastructure in Thimphu city may be posing serious threats to water regime in terms of its quality. Though the deterioration of water quality is restricted to a few localized areas, the trend is serious and needs proper attention of policy planners and decision makers. Proper treatment of effluents from urban areas is urgently needed to reduce water pollution in such affected areas to check further deterioration of water quality

  7. Nested high-resolution modeling of the impact of urbanization on regional climate in three vast urban agglomerations in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Feng, Jinming; Yan, Zhongwei; Hu, Yonghong; Jia, Gensuo

    2012-11-01

    In this paper, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, coupled to the Urban Canopy Model, is employed to simulate the impact of urbanization on the regional climate over three vast city agglomerations in China. Based on high-resolution land use and land cover data, two scenarios are designed to represent the nonurban and current urban land use distributions. By comparing the results of two nested, high-resolution numerical experiments, the spatial and temporal changes on surface air temperature, heat stress index, surface energy budget, and precipitation due to urbanization are analyzed and quantified. Urban expansion increases the surface air temperature in urban areas by about 1°C, and this climatic forcing of urbanization on temperature is more pronounced in summer and nighttime than other seasons and daytime. The heat stress intensity, which reflects the combined effects of temperature and humidity, is enhanced by about 0.5 units in urban areas. The regional incoming solar radiation increases after urban expansion, which may be caused by the reduction of cloud fraction. The increased temperature and roughness of the urban surface lead to enhanced convergence. Meanwhile, the planetary boundary layer is deepened, and water vapor is mixed more evenly in the lower atmosphere. The deficit of water vapor leads to less convective available potential energy and more convective inhibition energy. Finally, these combined effects may reduce the rainfall amount over urban areas, mainly in summer, and change the regional precipitation pattern to a certain extent.

  8. Three-dimensional modeling of radiative and convective exchanges in the urban atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qu, Yongfeng

    2011-01-01

    In many micro-meteorological studies, building resolving models usually assume a neutral atmosphere. Nevertheless, urban radiative transfers play an important role because of their influence on the energy budget. In order to take into account atmospheric radiation and the thermal effects of the buildings in simulations of atmospheric flow and pollutant dispersion in urban areas, we have developed a three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric radiative scheme, in the atmospheric module of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model Code-Saturne. The radiative scheme was previously validated with idealized cases, using as a first step, a constant 3D wind field. In this work, the full coupling of the radiative and thermal schemes with the dynamical model is evaluated. The aim of the first part is to validate the full coupling with the measurements of the simple geometry from the 'Mock Urban Setting Test' (MUST) experiment. The second part discusses two different approaches to model the radiative exchanges in urban area with a comparison between Code-Saturne and SOLENE. The third part applies the full coupling scheme to show the contribution of the radiative transfer model on the airflow pattern in low wind speed conditions in a 3D urban canopy. In the last part we use the radiative-dynamics coupling to simulate a real urban environment and validate the modeling approach with field measurements from the 'Canopy and Aerosol Particles Interactions in Toulouse Urban Layer' (CAPITOUL). (author) [fr

  9. Calibrating and Validating a Simulation Model to Identify Drivers of Urban Land Cover Change in the Baltimore, MD Metropolitan Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire Jantz

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We build upon much of the accumulated knowledge of the widely used SLEUTH urban land change model and offer advances. First, we use SLEUTH’s exclusion/attraction layer to identify and test different urban land cover change drivers; second, we leverage SLEUTH’s self-modification capability to incorporate a demographic model; and third, we develop a validation procedure to quantify the influence of land cover change drivers and assess uncertainty. We found that, contrary to our a priori expectations, new development is not attracted to areas serviced by existing or planned water and sewer infrastructure. However, information about where population and employment growth is likely to occur did improve model performance. These findings point to the dominant role of centrifugal forces in post-industrial cities like Baltimore, MD. We successfully developed a demographic model that allowed us to constrain the SLEUTH model forecasts and address uncertainty related to the dynamic relationship between changes in population and employment and urban land use. Finally, we emphasize the importance of model validation. In this work the validation procedure played a key role in rigorously assessing the impacts of different exclusion/attraction layers and in assessing uncertainty related to population and employment forecasts.

  10. Urban Expansion: a Geo-Spatial Approach for Temporal Monitoring of Loss of Agricultural Land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumari, N. S.; Shao, Z.; Huang, M.; Sanga, C. A.; Van Genderen, J. L.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents some preliminary results from research on monitoring the urban growth of Shenzhen in China. Agriculture is still the pillar of national economies in many countries including China. Thus, agriculture contributes to population growth. Population growth follows either exponential or logistic growth models. These models can be examined using a time-series of geospatial data, mainly historical earth observation imagery from satellites such as LANDSAT. Such multitemporal data may provide insights into settlement analysis as well as on population dynamics and hence, quantify the loss of agricultural land. In this study, LANDSAT data of ten dates, at approximately five yearly intervals from 1977 to 2017 were used. The remote sensing techniques used for analysis of data for 40 years were image selection, then followed by geometric and radiometric corrections and mosaicking. Also, classification, remote sensing image fusion, and change detection methods were used. This research extracted the information on the amount, direction, and speed of urbanization, and hence, the number of hectares of agricultural land lost due to urban expansion. Several specific elements were used in the descriptive model of landscape changes and population dynamics of the city of Shenzhen in China. These elements are: i) quantify the urban changes, from a small town (37.000 people in the early 1970's) to the megalopolis of around 20 million habitants today. ii) Examining the rate of urban extension on the loss of agricultural landscape and population growth. iii) The loss of food production was analysed against the economic growth in the region. iv) The aspects of loss of agricultural land, area of built-up urban land, and increase in population are studied quantitatively, by the temporal analysis of earth observation geospatial data. The experimental results from this study show that the proposed method is effective in determining loss of agricultural land in any city due to

  11. Trends in urbanization and patterns of land use in the Asian mega-cities Jakarta, Bangkok, and Metro Manila

    OpenAIRE

    Murakami, Akinobu; Zain, Alinda Medrial; Takeuchi, Kazuhiko; Tsunekawa, Atsushi; Yokota, Shigehiro

    2005-01-01

    Asian mega-cities have experienced rapid population growth and continue to grow. Urbanization in those areas is proceeding differently from the patterns of city growth experienced in Western countries. Understanding the characteristics of Asian urbanization will be indispensable for the establishment of a local landscape planning system. In this study, we used the Clark linear exponential model and the Newling quadratic exponential model to compare the spatial distribution of population densi...

  12. Decoupling emissions of greenhouse gas, urbanization, energy and income: analysis from the economy of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tianqiong; Riti, Joshua Sunday; Shu, Yang

    2018-05-08

    The adoption and ratification of relevant policies, particularly the household enrolment system metamorphosis in China, led to rising urbanization growth. As the leading developing economy, China has experienced a drastic and rapid increase in the rate of urbanization, energy use, economic growth and greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution for the past 30 years. The knowledge of the dynamic interrelationships among these trends has a plethora of implications ranging from demographic, energy, and environmental and sustainable development policies. This study analyzes the role of urbanization in decoupling GHG emissions, energy, and income in China while considering the critical contribution of energy use. As a contribution to the extant body of literature, the present research introduces a new phenomenon called "the environmental urbanization Kuznets curve" (EUKC), which shows that at the early stage of urbanization, the environment degrades however, after a threshold point the technique effects surface and environmental degradation reduces with rise in urbanization. Applying the autoregressive distributed lag model and the vector error correction model, the paper finds the presence of inverted U-shaped curve between urbanization and GHG emission of CO 2 , while the same hypothesis cannot be found between income and GHG emission of CO 2 . Energy use in all the models contributes to GHG emission of CO 2 . In decoupling greenhouse gas emissions, urbanization, energy, and income, articulated and well-implemented energy and urbanization policies should be considered.

  13. The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terando, Adam; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

    2014-01-01

    The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

  14. Lévy-based growth models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsdóttir, Kristjana Ýr; Schmiegel, Jürgen; Jensen, Eva Bjørn Vedel

    2008-01-01

    In the present paper, we give a condensed review, for the nonspecialist reader, of a new modelling framework for spatio-temporal processes, based on Lévy theory. We show the potential of the approach in stochastic geometry and spatial statistics by studying Lévy-based growth modelling of planar o...... objects. The growth models considered are spatio-temporal stochastic processes on the circle. As a by product, flexible new models for space–time covariance functions on the circle are provided. An application of the Lévy-based growth models to tumour growth is discussed....

  15. High resolution modelling of extreme precipitation events in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siemerink, Martijn; Volp, Nicolette; Schuurmans, Wytze; Deckers, Dave

    2015-04-01

    The present day society needs to adjust to the effects of climate change. More extreme weather conditions are expected, which can lead to longer periods of drought, but also to more extreme precipitation events. Urban water systems are not designed for such extreme events. Most sewer systems are not able to drain the excessive storm water, causing urban flooding. This leads to high economic damage. In order to take appropriate measures against extreme urban storms, detailed knowledge about the behaviour of the urban water system above and below the streets is required. To investigate the behaviour of urban water systems during extreme precipitation events new assessment tools are necessary. These tools should provide a detailed and integral description of the flow in the full domain of overland runoff, sewer flow, surface water flow and groundwater flow. We developed a new assessment tool, called 3Di, which provides detailed insight in the urban water system. This tool is based on a new numerical methodology that can accurately deal with the interaction between overland runoff, sewer flow and surface water flow. A one-dimensional model for the sewer system and open channel flow is fully coupled to a two-dimensional depth-averaged model that simulates the overland flow. The tool uses a subgrid-based approach in order to take high resolution information of the sewer system and of the terrain into account [1, 2]. The combination of using the high resolution information and the subgrid based approach results in an accurate and efficient modelling tool. It is now possible to simulate entire urban water systems using extreme high resolution (0.5m x 0.5m) terrain data in combination with a detailed sewer and surface water network representation. The new tool has been tested in several Dutch cities, such as Rotterdam, Amsterdam and The Hague. We will present the results of an extreme precipitation event in the city of Schiedam (The Netherlands). This city deals with

  16. Real-time modeling of complex atmospheric releases in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baskett, R.L.; Ellis, J.S.; Sullivan, T.J.

    1994-08-01

    If a nuclear installation in or near an urban area has a venting, fire, or explosion, airborne radioactivity becomes the major concern. Dispersion models are the immediate tool for estimating the dose and contamination. Responses in urban areas depend on knowledge of the amount of the release, representative meteorological data, and the ability of the dispersion model to simulate the complex flows as modified by terrain or local wind conditions. A centralized dispersion modeling system can produce realistic assessments of radiological accidents anywhere in a country within several minutes if it is computer-automated. The system requires source-term, terrain, mapping and dose-factor databases, real-time meteorological data acquisition, three-dimensional atmospheric transport and dispersion models, and experienced staff. Experience with past responses in urban areas by the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) program at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory illustrate the challenges for three-dimensional dispersion models

  17. Real-time modelling of complex atmospheric releases in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baskett, R.L.; Ellis, J.S.; Sullivan, T.J.

    2000-01-01

    If a nuclear installation in or near an urban area has a venting, fire, or explosion, airborne radioactivity becomes the major concern. Dispersion models are the immediate tool for estimating the dose and contamination. Responses in urban areas depend on knowledge of the amount of the release, representative meteorological data, and the ability of the dispersion model to simulate the complex flows as modified by terrain or local wind conditions. A centralised dispersion modelling system can produce realistic assessments of radiological accidents anywhere in a country within several minutes if it is computer-automated. The system requires source-term, terrain, mapping and dose-factor databases, real-time meteorological data acquisition, three-dimensional atmospheric transport and dispersion models, and experienced staff. Experience with past responses in urban areas by the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) program at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory illustrate the challenges for three-dimensional dispersion models. (author)

  18. Modelling Urban Experiences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jantzen, Christian; Vetner, Mikael

    2008-01-01

    How can urban designers develop an emotionally satisfying environment not only for today's users but also for coming generations? Which devices can they use to elicit interesting and relevant urban experiences? This paper attempts to answer these questions by analyzing the design of Zuidas, a new...

  19. Procedural modeling of urban layout: population, land use, and road network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lyu, X.; Han, Q.; de Vries, B.

    2017-01-01

    This paper introduces an urban simulation system generating urban layouts with population, road network and land use layers. The desired urban spatial structure is obtained by generating a population map based on population density models. The road network is generated at two spatial levels

  20. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    that combines a model for the socio-economic development of cities (DANCE4WATER) with an urban flood model. The urban flood model is a 1D-2D spatially distributed hydrologic and hydraulic model that, for a given urban layout, simulates flow in the sewer system and the surface flow in the catchment (MIKE FLOOD......). The socio-economic model computes urban layouts that are transferred to the hydraulic model in the form of changes of impervious area and potential flow paths on the surface. Estimates of flood prone areas, as well as the expected annual damage due to flooding, are returned to the socio-economic model...... as an input for further refinement of the scenarios for the urban development. Our results in an Australian case study suggest that urban development is a major driver for flood risk and vice versa that flood risk can be significantly reduced if it is accounted for in the development of the cities...

  1. The Urban Nexus: Contradictions and Dilemmas of (PostCommunist (SubUrbanization in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliana Dumitrache

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The process of urbanization in Romania was a very tumultuous and slightly different one compared to other Central and Eastern European countries, being marked by the constant willingness to increase the degree of urbanization. The communist period was the most significant from this point of view, by considering both the number of newly declared towns and urban population growth. The urbanization of communist era corroborated with the excessive and forced industrialization has generated imbalances in the urban system and created distortions in the urban hierarchy. However, the legislative inconsistency and the lack of urban regulations during the post – communist period have lead to the increasing number of new (quasi urban units (many of which without urban amenities to the chaotic sub-urbanization of cities and urban decline. In many cases, the ability of local authorities to manage the urban development in the early years of transition has been hampered by inadequate legislation that regulates the urban growth in a completely different socio-economic system. Thus, the lacks of specific urban policies and urban regeneration plans have determined indirectly a hypertrophic evolution and an uncontrolled suburban expansion. Bucharest, the capital of the country has been most affected by these processes determining multilayered space transformation within the city and open space conversion to commercial and residential use, both affecting the urban environment and quality of life of urban-rural communities. The paper focuses on the patterns, the driving forces and the consequences of two opposing processes: socialist forced urbanization vs. post-socialist chaotic urbanization unfolding across the national urban landscape.

  2. A german vision of urban models. The case of Querétaro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christof Göbel

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to their complexity, the organization, function and morphology of cities has been historically reduced to graphic abstractions or urban “models” with the intention to identify types of cities according to the cultural space in question. However, by their nature, cities are under constant change and transformation, which gives rise to many questions about the validity and the relevance of these urban models: Are these models still a way to understand the logic and structure of cities? Can we understand urban morphology through these schemes? Are there urban models to understand a “medium sized” city? Departing from these questions, the aim of this article is to explore whether current urban models continue corresponding with the morphology and structure of a city, and with the changes that occur in them in a ten-year period, as it is the case of the city of Querétaro.

  3. Parameterizing Urban Canopy Layer transport in an Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stöckl, Stefan; Rotach, Mathias W.

    2016-04-01

    The percentage of people living in urban areas is rising worldwide, crossed 50% in 2007 and is even higher in developed countries. High population density and numerous sources of air pollution in close proximity can lead to health issues. Therefore it is important to understand the nature of urban pollutant dispersion. In the last decades this field has experienced considerable progress, however the influence of large roughness elements is complex and has as of yet not been completely described. Hence, this work studied urban particle dispersion close to source and ground. It used an existing, steady state, three-dimensional Lagrangian particle dispersion model, which includes Roughness Sublayer parameterizations of turbulence and flow. The model is valid for convective and neutral to stable conditions and uses the kernel method for concentration calculation. As most Lagrangian models, its lower boundary is the zero-plane displacement, which means that roughly the lower two-thirds of the mean building height are not included in the model. This missing layer roughly coincides with the Urban Canopy Layer. An earlier work "traps" particles hitting the lower model boundary for a recirculation period, which is calculated under the assumption of a vortex in skimming flow, before "releasing" them again. The authors hypothesize that improving the lower boundary condition by including Urban Canopy Layer transport could improve model predictions. This was tested herein by not only trapping the particles, but also advecting them with a mean, parameterized flow in the Urban Canopy Layer. Now the model calculates the trapping period based on either recirculation due to vortex motion in skimming flow regimes or vertical velocity if no vortex forms, depending on incidence angle of the wind on a randomly chosen street canyon. The influence of this modification, as well as the model's sensitivity to parameterization constants, was investigated. To reach this goal, the model was

  4. Uncertainty Assessment in Urban Storm Water Drainage Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren

    The object of this paper is to make an overall description of the author's PhD study, concerning uncertainties in numerical urban storm water drainage models. Initially an uncertainty localization and assessment of model inputs and parameters as well as uncertainties caused by different model...

  5. An Investigation on the Sensitivity of the Parameters of Urban Flood Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    M, A. B.; Lohani, B.; Jain, A.

    2015-12-01

    Global climatic change has triggered weather patterns which lead to heavy and sudden rainfall in different parts of world. The impact of heavy rainfall is severe especially on urban areas in the form of urban flooding. In order to understand the effect of heavy rainfall induced flooding, it is necessary to model the entire flooding scenario more accurately, which is now becoming possible with the availability of high resolution airborne LiDAR data and other real time observations. However, there is not much understanding on the optimal use of these data and on the effect of other parameters on the performance of the flood model. This study aims at developing understanding on these issues. In view of the above discussion, the aim of this study is to (i) understand that how the use of high resolution LiDAR data improves the performance of urban flood model, and (ii) understand the sensitivity of various hydrological parameters on urban flood modelling. In this study, modelling of flooding in urban areas due to heavy rainfall is carried out considering Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, India as the study site. The existing model MIKE FLOOD, which is accepted by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is used along with the high resolution airborne LiDAR data. Once the model is setup it is made to run by changing the parameters such as resolution of Digital Surface Model (DSM), manning's roughness, initial losses, catchment description, concentration time, runoff reduction factor. In order to realize this, the results obtained from the model are compared with the field observations. The parametric study carried out in this work demonstrates that the selection of catchment description plays a very important role in urban flood modelling. Results also show the significant impact of resolution of DSM, initial losses and concentration time on urban flood model. This study will help in understanding the effect of various parameters that should be part of a

  6. Using Agent-Based Modeling to Enhance System-Level Real-time Control of Urban Stormwater Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimer, S.; Mullapudi, A. M.; Kerkez, B.

    2017-12-01

    The ability to reduce combined-sewer overflow (CSO) events is an issue that challenges over 800 U.S. municipalities. When the volume of a combined sewer system or wastewater treatment plant is exceeded, untreated wastewater then overflows (a CSO event) into nearby streams, rivers, or other water bodies causing localized urban flooding and pollution. The likelihood and impact of CSO events has only exacerbated due to urbanization, population growth, climate change, aging infrastructure, and system complexity. Thus, there is an urgent need for urban areas to manage CSO events. Traditionally, mitigating CSO events has been carried out via time-intensive and expensive structural interventions such as retention basins or sewer separation, which are able to reduce CSO events, but are costly, arduous, and only provide a fixed solution to a dynamic problem. Real-time control (RTC) of urban drainage systems using sensor and actuator networks has served as an inexpensive and versatile alternative to traditional CSO intervention. In particular, retrofitting individual stormwater elements for sensing and automated active distributed control has been shown to significantly reduce the volume of discharge during CSO events, with some RTC models demonstrating a reduction upwards of 90% when compared to traditional passive systems. As more stormwater elements become retrofitted for RTC, system-level RTC across complete watersheds is an attainable possibility. However, when considering the diverse set of control needs of each of these individual stormwater elements, such system-level RTC becomes a far more complex problem. To address such diverse control needs, agent-based modeling is employed such that each individual stormwater element is treated as an autonomous agent with a diverse decision making capabilities. We present preliminary results and limitations of utilizing the agent-based modeling computational framework for the system-level control of diverse, interacting

  7. Urban hydrogeology in Indonesia: A highlight from Jakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubis, R. F.

    2018-02-01

    In many cities in the developing countries, groundwater is an important source of public water supply. The interaction between groundwater systems and urban environments has become an urgent challenge for many developing cities in the world, Indonesia included. Contributing factors are, but not limited to, the continuous horizontal and vertical expansion of cities, population growth, climate change, water scarcity and groundwater quality degradation. Jakarta as the capital city of Indonesia becomes a good example to study and implement urban hydrogeology. Urban hydrogeology is a science for investigating groundwater at the hydrological cycle and its change, water regime and quality within the urbanized landscape and zones of its impact. The present paper provides a review of urban groundwater studies in Jakarta in the context of urban water management, advances in hydrogeological investigation, monitoring and modelling since the city was established. The whole study emphasizes the necessity of an integrated urban groundwater management and development supporting hydrogeological techniques for urban areas.

  8. Enhancing photogrammetric 3d city models with procedural modeling techniques for urban planning support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schubiger-Banz, S; Arisona, S M; Zhong, C

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a workflow to increase the level of detail of reality-based 3D urban models. It combines the established workflows from photogrammetry and procedural modeling in order to exploit distinct advantages of both approaches. The combination has advantages over purely automatic acquisition in terms of visual quality, accuracy and model semantics. Compared to manual modeling, procedural techniques can be much more time effective while maintaining the qualitative properties of the modeled environment. In addition, our method includes processes for procedurally adding additional features such as road and rail networks. The resulting models meet the increasing needs in urban environments for planning, inventory, and analysis

  9. MODEL OF BRAZILIAN URBANIZATION: GENERAL NOTES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro da Silva Guimarães

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The full text format seeks to analyze the social inequality in Brazil through the spatial process of that inequality in this sense it analyzes, scratching the edges of what is known of the Brazilian urbanization model and how this same model produced gentrification cities and exclusive. So search the text discuss the country’s urban exclusion through consolidation of what is conventionally called peripheral areas, or more generally, of peripheries. The text on screen is the result of research carried out at the Federal Fluminense University in Masters level. In this study, we tried to understand the genesis of an urban housing development located in São Gonçalo, Rio de Janeiro called Jardim Catarina. Understand what the problem space partner who originated it. In this sense, his analysis becomes consubstantial to understand the social and spatial inequalities in Brazil, as well as the role of the state as planning manager socio-spatial planning and principal agent in the solution of such problems. It is expected that with the realization of a study of greater amounts, from which this article is just a micro work can contribute subsidies that contribute to the arrangement and crystallization of public policies that give account of social inequalities and serve to leverage a country more fair and equitable cities.

  10. Urban Sustainability and Public Health: Throwing the Bath Water Out and Not the Baby

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the affect of urbanization on community health. It exams urbanization trends in the Atlanta metro area and includes information on impervious surfaces, air quality, mitigation strategies, spatial growth modeling, land use, public health surveillance and different data collection methods.

  11. Hispanic Population Growth and Rural Income Inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrado, Emilio A.; Kandel, William A.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the relationship between Hispanic population growth and changes in U.S. rural income inequality from 1990 through 2000. Applying comparative approaches used for urban areas we disentangle Hispanic population growth's contribution to inequality by comparing and statistically modeling changes in the family income Gini coefficient across…

  12. Compact or spread? A quantitative spatial model of urban areas in Europe since 1990.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Wolff

    Full Text Available Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (dedensification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe.

  13. Compact or spread? A quantitative spatial model of urban areas in Europe since 1990

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, Dagmar; Haase, Annegret

    2018-01-01

    Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (de)densification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe. PMID:29489851

  14. Compact or spread? A quantitative spatial model of urban areas in Europe since 1990.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Manuel; Haase, Dagmar; Haase, Annegret

    2018-01-01

    Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (de)densification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe.

  15. Growth and development in school-age children from Rostov region, Russia: Comparison between urban and rural settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voynov, V B; Kulba, S N; Arapova, Yu Yu

    2017-12-01

    The purposes of the current study were: (1) to describe growth and physical development and establish norms for schoolchildren from Rostov region in Russia; (2) to compare major characteristics of development between urban and rural children by sex and age. Nearly 200,000 children (198,712) aged between 7 and 17 years from 232 urban and rural schools of Rostov region (Southern Federal District of Russia) participated in the study. School age is a period of intensive growth and physiological and psychological development. Irregularities of personal development are caused by a multitude of factors, such as sex differences, heredity, socio-economic status of a family, standard of living, particular environmental conditions, and lifestyle. It has been established that children from the Southern Federal District of Russia had body mass index values higher than age-appropriate norms for all Russians (Total Russian, Rudnev et al., 2014) and World Health Organization charts. Children from urban settings were taller and heavier than children from rural settings. Sex is one of the most influential factors which play key role in determining specific characteristics of growth and personal development. According to our results, boys and girls both had similar age-related changes in weight and height, but their respective dynamics differed. Girls' height and weight values accelerated at the age 10 to 12 years and plateaued after the age fourteen, whereas in boys height and weight steadily increased with age, showing slight acceleration at the age 12 to 13 years, and reached a plateau by the age of seventeen. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  16. Towards Sustainable Growth Business Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamp-Roelands, N.; Balkenende, J.P.; Van Ommen, P.

    2012-03-15

    The Dutch Sustainable Growth Coalition (DSGC) has the following objectives: The DSGC aims to pro-actively drive sustainable growth business models along three lines: (1) Shape. DSGC member companies aim to connect economic profitability with environmental and social progress on the basis of integrated sustainable growth business models; (2) Share. DSGC member companies aim for joint advocacy of sustainable growth business models both internationally and nationally; and (3) Stimulate. DSGC member companies aim to stimulate and influence the policy debate on enabling sustainable growth - with a view to finding solutions to the environmental and social challenges we are facing. This is their first report. The vision, actions and mission of DSGC are documented in the Manifesto in Chapter 2 of this publication. Chapter 3 contains an overview of key features of an integrated sustainable growth business model and the roadmap towards such a model. In Chapter 4, project examples of DSGC members are presented, providing insight into the hands-on reality of implementing the good practices. Chapter 5 offers an overview of how the Netherlands provides an enabling environment for sustainable growth business models. Chapter 6 offers the key conclusions.

  17. An approach to study of methods for urban analysis and urban fabric renewal in observation of a city as a multiple fractal structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdanov Ana

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban forms and processes can be observed as fractal structures since in their seemingly chaotic development and complexity it can be noticed an internal order and regularity, which could be quantified and described by the methods of fractal analysis. With determination of fractal dimension it is possible to quantify the level of irregularity, the complexity and hierarchy of the urban structures, as well as the level of urban transformations in various time intersections. The fractal geometry method has been used in analyses of spatial distribution of population, networks and utilities because it corresponds more than deterministic methods to the nature of urban settlements as open, non-linear and dynamic systems. In that sense, fractal geometry becomes the means to grasp a complex morphological urban structure of urban settlements in general, the interrelationships between the inner spatial elements, and to predict future development possibilities. Moreover on the basis of urban pattern analysis by means of fractal geometry, it is possible to evaluate the growth and development process and to perform a comparative analysis of development in spatially and temporarily different settlement settings. Having in view that complex urban fabric presumes tight connections and diversity, which is in contrast to sprawl and monotony which increasingly characterize urban growth and development, this paper is a contribution to research of potential for modern urban settlements to regain the spirit of spontaneity and human dimension through application of development models that are fractal geometry based.

  18. The influence of urban development and social mobility on socioeconomic level: The application of GIS on urban ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhaili Mansor, Nur; Zulhaidi Mohd Shafri, Helmi; Mansor, Shattri; Paradhan, Biswajeet

    2014-06-01

    Specifically, the integration between social sciences and natural science are fundamental in our understanding of the economic, social and technological transformations that have drastically changed the society. This study will be based on the municipality of Sungai Petani, Kedah as it has been most influenced by urbanization and urban development. Urban development in Sungai Petani is closely associated with a tremendous increase in demand for land, which is highly related to population growth, human movement and their social mobility. The qualitative case study taken will rely on the visual interpretation technique that would allow the researcher to develop a map of urban changes detection. The potential application of GIS information to estimate socioeconomic indicators and the modelling of socio-economic activities that are explored in this study is hoped to increase further our understanding of the impacts of development and urbanization on social life.

  19. The influence of urban development and social mobility on socioeconomic level: The application of GIS on urban ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mansor, Nur Suhaili; Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd; Mansor, Shattri; Paradhan, Biswajeet

    2014-01-01

    Specifically, the integration between social sciences and natural science are fundamental in our understanding of the economic, social and technological transformations that have drastically changed the society. This study will be based on the municipality of Sungai Petani, Kedah as it has been most influenced by urbanization and urban development. Urban development in Sungai Petani is closely associated with a tremendous increase in demand for land, which is highly related to population growth, human movement and their social mobility. The qualitative case study taken will rely on the visual interpretation technique that would allow the researcher to develop a map of urban changes detection. The potential application of GIS information to estimate socioeconomic indicators and the modelling of socio-economic activities that are explored in this study is hoped to increase further our understanding of the impacts of development and urbanization on social life

  20. A QUADTREE ORGANIZATION CONSTRUCTION AND SCHEDULING METHOD FOR URBAN 3D MODEL BASED ON WEIGHT

    OpenAIRE

    C. Yao; G. Peng; Y. Song; M. Duan

    2017-01-01

    The increasement of Urban 3D model precision and data quantity puts forward higher requirements for real-time rendering of digital city model. Improving the organization, management and scheduling of 3D model data in 3D digital city can improve the rendering effect and efficiency. This paper takes the complexity of urban models into account, proposes a Quadtree construction and scheduling rendering method for Urban 3D model based on weight. Divide Urban 3D model into different rendering weigh...

  1. Urban growth and water access in sub-Saharan Africa: Progress, challenges, and emerging research directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dos Santos, S; Adams, E A; Neville, G; Wada, Y; de Sherbinin, A; Mullin Bernhardt, E; Adamo, S B

    2017-12-31

    For the next decade, the global water crisis remains the risk of highest concern, and ranks ahead of climate change, extreme weather events, food crises and social instability. Across the globe, nearly one in ten people is without access to an improved drinking water source. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the most affected, having disproportionately more of the global population without access to clean water than other major regions. Population growth, changing lifestyles, increasing pollution and accelerating urbanization will continue to widen the gap between the demand for water and available supply especially in urban areas, and disproportionately affect informal settlements, where the majority of SSA's urban population resides. Distribution and allocation of water will be affected by climate-induced water stresses, poor institutions, ineffective governance, and weak political will to address scarcity and mediate uncertainties in future supply. While attempts have been made by many scientists to examine different dimensions of water scarcity and urban population dynamics, there are few comprehensive reviews, especially focused on the particular situation in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper contributes to interdisciplinary understanding of urban water supply by distilling and integrating relevant empirical knowledge on urban dynamics and water issues in SSA, focusing on progress made and associated challenges. It then points out future research directions including the need to understand how alternatives to centralized water policies may help deliver sustainable water supply to cities and informal settlements in the region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Urbanization and Condition of Urban Slums in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Digambar Abaji Chimankar

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The present paper attempted to study the urbanization in India and condition of urban slums in terms of water, sanitation, electricity, garbage collection and health care, and education which are supposed to be basic minimum needs for the slum dwellers. India is going through the process of rapid urbanization because of industrialization like other third world countries.  The percent of urbanization increase from 27.8 percent in 2001 to 31.1 percent in 2011 census. The increase in the percentage of population in urban areas is because of natural growth, rural to urban migration and the reclassification of village and towns. The share of the slum population in the total urban population of the country was 18.3 percent in 2001 while in 2011 it was 17.4 percent. The condition of urban slums in India is to be improved so as to make them better for living.

  3. Urban thermal environment and its biophysical parameters derived from satellite remote sensing imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, Maria A.; Savastru, Roxana S.; Savastru, Dan M.; Tautan, Marina N.; Baschir, Laurentiu V.

    2013-10-01

    In frame of global warming, the field of urbanization and urban thermal environment are important issues among scientists all over the world. This paper investigated the influences of urbanization on urban thermal environment as well as the relationships of thermal characteristics to other biophysical variables in Bucharest metropolitan area of Romania based on satellite remote sensing imagery Landsat TM/ETM+, time series MODIS Terra/Aqua data and IKONOS acquired during 1990 - 2012 period. Vegetation abundances and percent impervious surfaces were derived by means of linear spectral mixture model, and a method for effectively enhancing impervious surface has been developed to accurately examine the urban growth. The land surface temperature (Ts), a key parameter for urban thermal characteristics analysis, was also retrieved from thermal infrared band of Landsat TM/ETM+, from MODIS Terra/Aqua datasets. Based on these parameters, the urban growth, urban heat island effect (UHI) and the relationships of Ts to other biophysical parameters have been analyzed. Results indicated that the metropolitan area ratio of impervious surface in Bucharest increased significantly during two decades investigated period, the intensity of urban heat island and heat wave events being most significant. The correlation analyses revealed that, at the pixel-scale, Ts possessed a strong positive correlation with percent impervious surfaces and negative correlation with vegetation abundances at the regional scale, respectively. This analysis provided an integrated research scheme and the findings can be very useful for urban ecosystem modeling.

  4. Integrated GIS-Based Site Selection of Hillside Development for Future Growth of Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imtiaz Ahmed Chandio

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization is a challenging issue for developing countries, like Malaysia. Penang Island is one of the states of Malaysia selected as a study area where limited flat land exists. As a result, this would create urban environmental problems, such as unstable slopes and landslides due to uneven topography. The purpose of this study was to develop land suitability model for hillside development. Hence, this research aims land suitability analysis modelling for hillside development by using integrated GIS (Geographic Information System based MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making approach. The hill land portion of Penang Island was selected for hillside site development using GIS and AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process as a MCDM method for sustainable hillside development. This study found that 15% of land was highly suitable, 27% moderately suitable, 41% less suitable, and 17% not suitable. Therefore, this research can be consistently used by the concerned authorities for sustainable hillside urban planning and development. This approach can be used as a policy tool in decision making of urban planning and development.

  5. [Has the urban transition ended in sub-Saharan Africa?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocquier, P

    1999-01-01

    In 1950, 28% of the world¿s population lived in cities. At that point, localities larger than 10,000 inhabitants were home to 0.7 billion people, of whom 36% were in developing countries. However, according to UN projections, the rate of urbanization will reach 47.4% in 2000, with cities housing 2.9 billion people, of whom 68.7% will be in developing countries. Africa, like other continents, is urbanizing. Although Africa is among the world¿s least urbanized regions, it is nonetheless the continent with the highest rate of urbanization. Urban population growth reached its height during the 1950s, then the urban population in the region multiplied by a factor of 10 during 1950-90, far outpacing the rate of overall population growth on the continent. However, during the 1980s and 1990s, urban growth in Africa declined sharply. The author discusses urbanization in Africa devoid of industrialization, declining rates of urban population growth in the region, the uncertain future of urbanization in Africa, and how future urbanization in Africa depends upon the role the continent will play in the global economy.

  6. Strategies for sustainable urban development and urban-rural linkages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nilsson, K.; Sick Nielsen, T.; Aalbers, C.B.E.M.; Bell, S.; Boitier, B.; Chery, J.P.; Fertner, C.; Groschowski, M.; Haase, D.; Loibl, W.; Pauleit, S.; Pintar, M.; Piorr, A.; Ravetz, J.; Ristimäki, M.; Rounsevell, M.; Tosics, I.; Westerink, J.; Zasada, I.

    2014-01-01

    An important driving force behind urban expansion is the growth of the urban population. But for Europe, this is not a sufficient explanation. The major trend is that European cities have become much less compact. Since the mid-1950s European cities have expanded on average by 78%, whereas the

  7. A spatially distributed model for assessment of the effects of changing land use and climate on urban stream quality: Development of a Spatially Distributed Urban Water Quality Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ning [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle WA USA; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Yearsley, John [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle WA USA; Baptiste, Marisa [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle WA USA; Cao, Qian [Department of Geography, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles CA USA; Lettenmaier, Dennis P. [Department of Geography, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles CA USA; Nijssen, Bart [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle WA USA

    2016-08-22

    While the effects of land use change in urban areas have been widely examined, the combined effects of climate and land use change on the quality of urban and urbanizing streams have received much less attention. We describe a modeling framework that is applicable to the evaluation of potential changes in urban water quality and associated hydrologic changes in response to ongoing climate and landscape alteration. The grid-based spatially distributed model, DHSVM-WQ, is an outgrowth of the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) that incorporates modules for assessing hydrology and water quality in urbanized watersheds at a high spatial and temporal resolution. DHSVM-WQ simulates surface runoff quality and in-stream processes that control the transport of nonpoint-source (NPS) pollutants into urban streams. We configure DHSVM-WQ for three partially urbanized catchments in the Puget Sound region to evaluate the water quality responses to current conditions and projected changes in climate and/or land use over the next century. Here we focus on total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) from nonpoint sources (runoff), as well as stream temperature. The projection of future land use is characterized by a combination of densification in existing urban or partially urban areas, and expansion of the urban footprint. The climate change scenarios consist of individual and concurrent changes in temperature and precipitation. Future precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer, while future temperature is projected to increase throughout the year. Our results show that urbanization has a much greater effect than climate change on both the magnitude and seasonal variability of streamflow, TSS and TP loads largely due to substantially increased streamflow, and particularly winter flow peaks. Water temperature is more sensitive to climate warming scenarios than to urbanization and precipitation changes. Future urbanization and

  8. Strengthening Rural-Urban Interactions as a Contemporary ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    finance through remittances as well as the flow of goods and services between rural and urban ... of the South-West Region of Cameroon as a case study. ..... major areas of interest within the Kumba urban area were the urban market, cash ... This study makes use of two main concepts – the Growth Pole and Growth.

  9. Empirical analysis on impact of FDI on the level of urbanization in costal areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cao Can-Ming

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: There is a close relationship between FDI and the level of urbanization. the objective of this research is to analyze the relationship between FDI and the level of urbanization in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces in costal areas.Design/methodology/approach: The author uses the modern econometric methods by panel unit root test, cointegration test, random effects models and fixed effects models, and the data of FDI (2000-2012, urbanization rate, industrial structure and regional GDP of Nanjing, Xuzhou, Suzhou, Wuxi and other 13 cities in Jiangsu Province, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other 19 cities in Guangdong province, researches the relationship between FDI and urbanization rate.Findings: Models show, FDI was closely correlated with urbanization rate in Jiangsu province and Guangdong province, the highly correlated with industrial structure, while it negatively correlated with the growth of GDP, and the degree of correlation is not high in Jiangsu province, but the high negative correlation in Guangdong province. The results shows the industrial structure and the urbanization rate mainly cause FDI growth.Research limitations/implications: There are many provinces in costal areas of China, this paper just research the relationship between FDI and the level of urbanization in Jiangsu province and Guangdong province, there are some limitations in the study areas and results.Originality/value: The study was the first to successfully apply on random effects model and fixed effects model to study the relationship between FDI and the level of urbanization in coastal areas by competitive analysis. Guangdong and Jiangsu province are the most developed regions, they are the most representative provinces in costal areas of China. Taking these two province as an example, we can analyze the relationship between FDI and the level of urbanization in central and western regions.

  10. Progress towards the child mortality millennium development goal in urban sub-Saharan Africa: the dynamics of population growth, immunization, and access to clean water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotso, Jean-Christophe; Ezeh, Alex Chika; Madise, Nyovani Janet; Ciera, James

    2007-08-28

    Improvements in child survival have been very poor in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Since the 1990 s, declines in child mortality have reversed in many countries in the region, while in others, they have either slowed or stalled, making it improbable that the target of reducing child mortality by two thirds by 2015 will be reached. This paper highlights the implications of urban population growth and access to health and social services on progress in achieving MDG 4. Specifically, it examines trends in childhood mortality in SSA in relation to urban population growth, vaccination coverage and access to safe drinking water. Correlation methods are used to analyze national-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and from the United Nations. The analysis is complemented by case studies on intra-urban health differences in Kenya and Zambia. Only five of the 22 countries included in the study have recorded declines in urban child mortality that are in line with the MDG target of about 4% per year; five others have recorded an increase; and the 12 remaining countries witnessed only minimal decline. More rapid rate of urban population growth is associated with negative trend in access to safe drinking water and in vaccination coverage, and ultimately to increasing or timid declines in child mortality. There is evidence of intra-urban disparities in child health in some countries like Kenya and Zambia. Failing to appropriately target the growing sub-group of the urban poor and improve their living conditions and health status - which is an MDG target itself - may result in lack of improvement on national indicators of health. Sustained expansion of potable water supplies and vaccination coverage among the disadvantaged urban dwellers should be given priority in the efforts to achieve the child mortality MDG in SSA.

  11. Progress towards the child mortality millennium development goal in urban sub-Saharan Africa: the dynamics of population growth, immunization, and access to clean water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madise Nyovani

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Improvements in child survival have been very poor in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA. Since the 1990s, declines in child mortality have reversed in many countries in the region, while in others, they have either slowed or stalled, making it improbable that the target of reducing child mortality by two thirds by 2015 will be reached. This paper highlights the implications of urban population growth and access to health and social services on progress in achieving MDG 4. Specifically, it examines trends in childhood mortality in SSA in relation to urban population growth, vaccination coverage and access to safe drinking water. Methods Correlation methods are used to analyze national-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and from the United Nations. The analysis is complemented by case studies on intra-urban health differences in Kenya and Zambia. Results Only five of the 22 countries included in the study have recorded declines in urban child mortality that are in line with the MDG target of about 4% per year; five others have recorded an increase; and the 12 remaining countries witnessed only minimal decline. More rapid rate of urban population growth is associated with negative trend in access to safe drinking water and in vaccination coverage, and ultimately to increasing or timid declines in child mortality. There is evidence of intra-urban disparities in child health in some countries like Kenya and Zambia. Conclusion Failing to appropriately target the growing sub-group of the urban poor and improve their living conditions and health status – which is an MDG target itself – may result in lack of improvement on national indicators of health. Sustained expansion of potable water supplies and vaccination coverage among the disadvantaged urban dwellers should be given priority in the efforts to achieve the child mortality MDG in SSA.

  12. A dispersion modelling system for urban air pollution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karppinen, A.; Kukkonen, J.; Nordlund, G.; Rantakrans, E.; Valkama, I.

    1998-10-01

    An Urban Dispersion Modelling system UDM-FMI, developed at the Finnish Meteorological Institute is described in the report. The modelling system includes a multiple source Gaussian plume model and a meteorological pre-processing model. The dispersion model is an integrated urban scale model, taking into account of all source categories (point, line, area and volume sources). It includes a treatment of chemical transformation (for NO{sub 2}) wet and dry deposition (for SO{sub 2}) plume rise, downwash phenomena and dispersion of inert particles. The model allows also for the influence of a finite mixing height. The model structure is mainly based on the state-of-the-art methodology. The system also computes statistical parameters from the time series, which can be compared to air quality guidelines. The relevant meteorological parameters for the dispersion model are evaluated using data produced by a meteorological pre-processor. The model is based mainly on the energy budget method. Results of national investigations have been used for evaluating climate-dependent parameters. The model utilises the synoptic meteorological observations, radiation records and aerological sounding observations. The model results include the hourly time series of the relevant atmospheric turbulence 51 refs.

  13. Spatial planning based on urban energy harvesting toward productive urban regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leduc, Wouter R. W. A.; Van Kann, Ferry M. G.

    The industrial revolution and the exploitation of fossil fuels fostered profound changes on transportation systems and infrastructure enabling unprecedented urban growth. Urban regions, which now host the majority of the world's population, resemble a linear metabolism: importing most of their raw

  14. Spatial planning based on urban energy harvesting toward productive urban regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leduc, W.R.W.A.; Kann, van F.M.G.

    2013-01-01

    The industrial revolution and the exploitation of fossil fuels fostered profound changes on transportation systems and infrastructure enabling unprecedented urban growth. Urban regions, which now host the majority of the world's population, resemble a linear metabolism: importing most of their raw

  15. Urban farming model in South Jakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Indrawati, E.

    2018-01-01

    The development of infrastructure rapidly, large of population and large of urbanization. Meanwhile, agricultural land is decreasing and agricultural production continues to decline. The productive crops is needed for consumption and it is also to improve the environment from oxygen provisioning, antidote to air pollution and to improve soil conditions. The use of yard land for horticultural crops (vegetables, fruits and ornamental plants), spices, medicines, herbs etc. can benefit for the owners of the yard particularly and the general public. The purpose of this research is to identify the model of home yard utilization, mosque yard, office, school, urban park and main road and sub main road, which can improve environmental quality in Pesanggrahan district. The method of analysis used descriptive analysis method by observation. Then analyzed the percentage of the use of yard with productive crops as urban farming. The results showed that the most productive crops were planted in Kelurahan Pesanggrahan 67% which compared with in Kelurahan Ulujami 47%, and in Kelurahan Petukangan Utara 27%. The most types of productive crops were grown as fruit trees and vegetable crops.

  16. Scaling Law of Urban Ride Sharing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tachet, R.; Sagarra, O.; Santi, P.; Resta, G.; Szell, M.; Strogatz, S. H.; Ratti, C.

    2017-03-01

    Sharing rides could drastically improve the efficiency of car and taxi transportation. Unleashing such potential, however, requires understanding how urban parameters affect the fraction of individual trips that can be shared, a quantity that we call shareability. Using data on millions of taxi trips in New York City, San Francisco, Singapore, and Vienna, we compute the shareability curves for each city, and find that a natural rescaling collapses them onto a single, universal curve. We explain this scaling law theoretically with a simple model that predicts the potential for ride sharing in any city, using a few basic urban quantities and no adjustable parameters. Accurate extrapolations of this type will help planners, transportation companies, and society at large to shape a sustainable path for urban growth.

  17. PARATI - a dynamic model for radiological assessments in urban areas. Pt. 1. Modelling of urban areas, their contamination and radiation fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rochedo, E.R.R.; Conti, L.F.C.; Paretzke, H.G.

    1996-01-01

    The structure and mathematical model of PARATI, a detailed computer programme developed for the assessment of the radiological consequences of an accidental contamination of urban areas, is described with respect to the scenarios used for the estimation of exposure fields in a village or town, the models for the initial and secondary contamination with the radionuclide 137 Cs, the concepts for calculating the resulting radiation exposures and the changes with time of the contamination and radiation fields. Kerma rates at various locations in tropical urban areas are given, and the contribution of different contaminated surfaces to these rates after dry or wet deposition are discussed. (orig.). With 6 figs., 12 tabs

  18. Nonlinear Growth Models as Measurement Models: A Second-Order Growth Curve Model for Measuring Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeish, Daniel; Dumas, Denis

    2017-01-01

    Recent methodological work has highlighted the promise of nonlinear growth models for addressing substantive questions in the behavioral sciences. In this article, we outline a second-order nonlinear growth model in order to measure a critical notion in development and education: potential. Here, potential is conceptualized as having three components-ability, capacity, and availability-where ability is the amount of skill a student is estimated to have at a given timepoint, capacity is the maximum amount of ability a student is predicted to be able to develop asymptotically, and availability is the difference between capacity and ability at any particular timepoint. We argue that single timepoint measures are typically insufficient for discerning information about potential, and we therefore describe a general framework that incorporates a growth model into the measurement model to capture these three components. Then, we provide an illustrative example using the public-use Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten data set using a Michaelis-Menten growth function (reparameterized from its common application in biochemistry) to demonstrate our proposed model as applied to measuring potential within an educational context. The advantage of this approach compared to currently utilized methods is discussed as are future directions and limitations.

  19. Development and validation of a physics-based urban fire spread model

    OpenAIRE

    HIMOTO, Keisuke; TANAKA, Takeyoshi

    2008-01-01

    A computational model for fire spread in a densely built urban area is developed. The model is distinct from existing models in that it explicitly describes fire spread phenomena with physics-based knowledge achieved in the field of fire safety engineering. In the model, urban fire is interpreted as an ensemble of multiple building fires; that is, the fire spread is simulated by predicting behaviors of individual building fires under the thermal influence of neighboring building fires. Adopte...

  20. Estimating the Impact of Urbanization on Air Quality in China Using Spatial Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanglin Fang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Urban air pollution is one of the most visible environmental problems to have accompanied China’s rapid urbanization. Based on emission inventory data from 2014, gathered from 289 cities, we used Global and Local Moran’s I to measure the spatial autorrelation of Air Quality Index (AQI values at the city level, and employed Ordinary Least Squares (OLS, Spatial Lag Model (SAR, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR to quantitatively estimate the comprehensive impact and spatial variations of China’s urbanization process on air quality. The results show that a significant spatial dependence and heterogeneity existed in AQI values. Regression models revealed urbanization has played an important negative role in determining air quality in Chinese cities. The population, urbanization rate, automobile density, and the proportion of secondary industry were all found to have had a significant influence over air quality. Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP and the scale of urban land use, however, failed the significance test at 10% level. The GWR model performed better than global models and the results of GWR modeling show that the relationship between urbanization and air quality was not constant in space. Further, the local parameter estimates suggest significant spatial variation in the impacts of various urbanization factors on air quality.

  1. Modelling and measurements of urban aerosol processes on the neighborhood scale in Rotterdam, Oslo and Helsinki

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, M.; Kukkonen, J.; Keuken, M. P.; Lützenkirchen, S.; Pirjola, L.; Hussein, T.

    2015-12-01

    This study evaluates the influence of aerosol processes on the particle number (PN) concentrations in three major European cities on the temporal scale of one hour, i.e. on the neighborhood and city scales. We have used selected measured data of particle size distributions from previous campaigns in the cities of Helsinki, Oslo and Rotterdam. The aerosol transformation processes were evaluated using an aerosol dynamics model MAFOR, combined with a simplified treatment of roadside and urban atmospheric dispersion. We have compared the model predictions of particle number size distributions with the measured data, and conducted sensitivity analyses regarding the influence of various model input variables. We also present a simplified parameterization for aerosol processes, which is based on the more complex aerosol process computations; this simple model can easily be implemented to both Gaussian and Eulerian urban dispersion models. Aerosol processes considered in this study were (i) the coagulation of particles, (ii) the condensation and evaporation of n-alkanes, and (iii) dry deposition. The chemical transformation of gas-phase compounds was not taken into account. It was not necessary to model the nucleation of gas-phase vapors, as the computations were started with roadside conditions. Dry deposition and coagulation of particles were identified to be the most important aerosol dynamic processes that control the evolution and removal of particles. The effect of condensation and evaporation of organic vapors emitted by vehicles on particle numbers and on particle size distributions was examined. Under inefficient dispersion conditions, condensational growth contributed significantly to the evolution of PN from roadside to the neighborhood scale. The simplified parameterization of aerosol processes can predict particle number concentrations between roadside and the urban background with an inaccuracy of ∼ 10 %, compared to the fully size-resolved MAFOR model.

  2. Comprehensive Regional Modeling for Long-Range Planning: Linking Integrated Urban Models and Geographic Information Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Johnston, Robert; de la Barra, Thomas

    2000-01-01

    This study demonstrates the sequential linking of two types of models to permit the comprehensive evaluation of regional transportation and land use policies. First, we operate an integrated urban model (TRANUS), which represents both land and travel markets with zones and networks. The travel and land use projections from TRANUS are outlined, to demonstrate the general reasonableness of the results, as this is the first application of a market-based urban model in the US. Second, the land us...

  3. Physics-based statistical model and simulation method of RF propagation in urban environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pao, Hsueh-Yuan; Dvorak, Steven L.

    2010-09-14

    A physics-based statistical model and simulation/modeling method and system of electromagnetic wave propagation (wireless communication) in urban environments. In particular, the model is a computationally efficient close-formed parametric model of RF propagation in an urban environment which is extracted from a physics-based statistical wireless channel simulation method and system. The simulation divides the complex urban environment into a network of interconnected urban canyon waveguides which can be analyzed individually; calculates spectral coefficients of modal fields in the waveguides excited by the propagation using a database of statistical impedance boundary conditions which incorporates the complexity of building walls in the propagation model; determines statistical parameters of the calculated modal fields; and determines a parametric propagation model based on the statistical parameters of the calculated modal fields from which predictions of communications capability may be made.

  4. Urbanization in contemporary Arab Gulf states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qutub, I Y

    1983-01-01

    Urbanization in the Arab Gulf states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates is analyzed. Topics discussed include the historical background to urbanization; current demographic trends in the region; urban characteristics and growth; socioeconomic factors influencing urbanization, with an emphasis on labor force structure; future urban strategy; and the need for urban research.

  5. Modeling e-logistics for urban B2C in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Galván, Dante; Robusté Antón, Francesc; Estrada Romeu, Miguel Ángel; Campos Cacheda, Jose Magin

    2005-01-01

    Major cities need to carry out good delivery operations that coexist with the rest of urban functions. The efficiency in city organisation depends directly on the proper management of logistic networks. In this context, Urban Logistics is born to improve the efficiency in public facilities dealing with the organisation of supply networks, especially in urban freight transport networks. This paper quantitatively models supply chains in the vehicle routing problem with time windows, especially ...

  6. Modelling the impact of implementing Water Sensitive Urban Design on at a catchment scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Gabriel, S.; Bockhorn, Britta

    Stormwater management using Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) is expected to be part of future drainage systems. This project aimed to develop a set of hydraulic models of the Harrestrup Å catchment (close to Copenhagen) in order to demonstrate the importance of modeling WSUDs at different scales......, ranging from models of an individual soakaway up to models of a large urban catchment. The models were developed in Mike Urban with a new integrated soakaway model. A small-scale individual soakaway model was used to determine appropriate initial conditions for soakway models. This model was applied...

  7. Monitoring urbanization and its implications in a mega city from space: spatiotemporal patterns and its indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandra, T V; Bharath, A H; Sowmyashree, M V

    2015-01-15

    Rapid and invasive urbanization has been associated with depletion of natural resources (vegetation and water resources), which in turn deteriorates the landscape structure and conditions in the local environment. Rapid increase in population due to the migration from rural areas is one of the critical issues of the urban growth. Urbanisation in India is drastically changing the land cover and often resulting in the sprawl. The sprawl regions often lack basic amenities such as treated water supply, sanitation, etc. This necessitates regular monitoring and understanding of the rate of urban development in order to ensure the sustenance of natural resources .Urban sprawl is the extent of urbanization which leads to the development of urban forms with the destruction of ecology and natural landforms. The rate of change of land use and extent of urban sprawl can be efficiently visualized and modelled with the help of geoinformatics. The knowledge of urban area, especially the growth magnitude, shape geometry, and spatial pattern is essential to understand the growth and characteristics of urbanization process. Urban pattern, shape and growth can be quantified using spatial metrics. This communication quantifies the urbanisation and associated growth pattern in Delhi. Spatial data of four decades were analysed to understand land over and land use dynamics. Further the region was divided into 4 zones and into circles of 1 km incrementing radius to understand and quantify the local spatial changes. Results of the landscape metrics indicate that the urban center was highly aggregated and the outskirts and the buffer regions were in the verge of aggregating urban patches. Shannon's Entropy index clearly depicted the outgrowth of sprawl areas in different zones of Delhi. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. [Experiences of the urbanization process in Venezuela].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez Tirado, N

    1985-01-01

    The process of urbanization and urban growth in relation to economic development in Venezuela is analyzed. Four periods are considered: the period prior to the discovery of oil in Venezuela, which ended in the early 1940s; from the 1940s to the early 1970s; from the 1970s to 1983; and the present. Information is provided for the period 1936-1981 on total and urban population growth and on the size and number of urban centers.

  9. Model developments in TERRA_URB, the upcoming standard urban parametrization of the atmospheric numerical model COSMO(-CLM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wouters, Hendrik; Blahak, Ulrich; Helmert, Jürgen; Raschendorfer, Matthias; Demuzere, Matthias; Fay, Barbara; Trusilova, Kristina; Mironov, Dmitrii; Reinert, Daniel; Lüthi, Daniel; Machulskaya, Ekaterina

    2015-04-01

    In order to address urban climate at the regional scales, a new efficient urban land-surface parametrization TERRA_URB has been developed and coupled to the atmospheric numerical model COSMO-CLM. Hereby, several new advancements for urban land-surface models are introduced which are crucial for capturing the urban surface-energy balance and its seasonal dependency in the mid-latitudes. This includes a new PDF-based water-storage parametrization for impervious land, the representation of radiative absorption and emission by greenhouse gases in the infra-red spectrum in the urban canopy layer, and the inclusion of heat emission from human activity. TERRA_URB has been applied in offline urban-climate studies during European observation campaigns at Basel (BUBBLE), Toulouse (CAPITOUL), and Singapore, and currently applied in online studies for urban areas in Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, Helsinki, Singapore, and Melbourne. Because of its computational efficiency, high accuracy and its to-the-point conceptual easiness, TERRA_URB has been selected to become the standard urban parametrization of the atmospheric numerical model COSMO(-CLM). This allows for better weather forecasts for temperature and precipitation in cities with COSMO, and an improved assessment of urban outdoor hazards in the context of global climate change and urban expansion with COSMO-CLM. We propose additional extensions to TERRA_URB towards a more robust representation of cities over the world including their structural design. In a first step, COSMO's standard EXTernal PARarameter (EXTPAR) tool is updated for representing the cities into the land cover over the entire globe. Hereby, global datasets in the standard EXTPAR tool are used to retrieve the 'Paved' or 'sealed' surface Fraction (PF) referring to the presence of buildings and streets. Furthermore, new global data sets are incorporated in EXTPAR for describing the Anthropogenic Heat Flux (AHF) due to human activity, and optionally the

  10. Multi-scale dynamic modeling of atmospheric pollution in urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thouron, Laetitia

    2017-01-01

    Urban air pollution has been identified as an important cause of health impacts, including premature deaths. In particular, ambient concentrations of gaseous pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) are regulated, which means that emission reduction strategies must be put in place to reduce these concentrations in places where the corresponding regulations are not respected. Besides, air pollution can contribute to the contamination of other media, for example through the contribution of atmospheric deposition to runoff contamination. The multifactorial and multi-scale aspects of urban make the pollution sources difficult to identify. Indeed, the urban environment is a heterogeneous space characterized by complex architectural structures (old buildings alongside a more modern building, residential, commercial, industrial zones, roads, etc.), non-uniform atmospheric pollutant emissions and therefore the population exposure to pollution is variable in space and time. The modeling of urban air pollution aims to understand the origin of pollutants, their spatial extent and their concentration/deposition levels. Some pollutants have long residence times and can stay several weeks in the atmosphere (PM2.5) and therefore be transported over long distances, while others are more local (NO x in the vicinity of traffic). The spatial distribution of a pollutant will therefore depend on several factors, and in particular on the surfaces encountered. Air quality depends strongly on weather, buildings (canyon-street) and emissions. The aim of this thesis is to address some of these aspects by modeling: (1) urban background pollution with a transport-chemical model (Polyphemus / POLAIR3D), which makes it possible to estimate atmospheric pollutants by type of urban surfaces (roofs, walls and roadways), (2) street-level pollution by explicitly integrating the effects of the building in a three-dimensional way with a multi-scale model of

  11. Smart Growth for a Sustainable Urban Environment - Concepts and Practice in US and China (CLASS PRESENTATION)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is an invited seminar to a class of undergraduate and graduate students at DAAP of the University of Cincinnati. It provides students the concepts and trends in smart growth and sustainable urban development in U.S. and China. The materials are drawn from my research and m...

  12. Conservation in metropolitan regions: assessing trends and threats of urban development and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, J. H.; Santos, M. J.; Bjorkman, J.

    2011-12-01

    Two global challenges to successful conservation are urban expansion and climate change. Rapid urban growth threatens biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while climate change may make currently protected areas unsuitable for species that exist within them. We examined three measures of landscape change for 8800 km2 of the San Francisco Bay metropolitan region over 80 years past and future: urban growth, protected area establishment, and natural vegetation type extents. The Bay Area is a good test bed for conservation assessment of the impacts of temporal and spatial of urban growth and land cover change. The region is geographically rather small, with over 40% of its lands already dedicated to protected park and open space lands, they are well-documented, and, the area has had extensive population growth in the past and is projected to continue to grow. The ten-county region within which our study area is a subset has grown from 1.78 million people in 1930, to 6.97 million in 2000 and is estimated to grow to 10.94 million by 2050. With such an influx of people into a small geographic area, it is imperative to both examine the past urban expansion and estimate how the future population will be accommodated into the landscape. We quantify these trends to assess conservation 'success' through time. We used historical and current landcover maps to assess trend, and a GIS-based urban modeling (UPlan) to assess future urban growth impacts in the region, under three policy scenarios- business as usual, smart growth, and urban redevelopment. Impacts are measured by the amount of open space targeted by conservation planners in the region that will be urbanized under each urban growth policy. Impacts are also measured by estimates of the energy consumption projected for each of the scenarios on household and business unit level. The 'business as usual' and 'smart growth' scenarios differed little in their impacts to targeted conservation lands, because so little

  13. Evaluation of Seasonal, ANN, and Hybrid Models in Modeling Urban Water Consumption A Case Study of Rash City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Nematollah Mousavi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting future water consumption in cities to plan for the required capacities in urban water supply systems (including water transmission networks and water treatment facilities depends on the application of behavioral models of uban water consumption. Being located in the North-South corridor, Rasht City is assuming a new role to play in the national economy as a foreign trade center. It will, thus, be necessary to review its present urban infrastructure in order to draft the required infrastructural development plans for meeting the city’s future water demands. The three Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA, Artificial Neural Network (ANN, and SARIMABP approaches were employed in present study to model and forecast Rasht urban water consumption using monthly time series for the period 2001‒2008 of urban water consumption in Rasht. The seasonal unit root test was applied to develop the relevant SARIMA model. Results showed that all the seasonal and non-seasonal unit roots are present in all the frequencies in the monthly time series for Rasht urban water consumption. Using a proper filter, the SAIMA patterns were estimated. In a second stage the SARIMA output was used to determine the ANN output and the hybrid SARIMABP structure was accordingly constructed. The values for Rasht urban water consumption predicted by the three models indicated the superiority of the SARIMABP hybrid model as evidenced by the forecast error index of 0.41% obtained for this model. The other two models of SARIMA and ANN were, however, found to yield acceptable results for urban water managers since the forecasting error recorded for them was below 1%.

  14. Modeling Urban Expansion in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Using Demographic–Economic Data through Cellular Automata-Markov Chain and Multi-Layer Perceptron-Markov Chain Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chudech Losiri

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Urban expansion is considered as one of the most important problems in several developing countries. Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR is the urbanized and agglomerated area of Bangkok Metropolis (BM and its vicinity, which confronts the expansion problem from the center of the city. Landsat images of 1988, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008, and 2011 were used to detect the land use and land cover (LULC changes. The demographic and economic data together with corresponding maps were used to determine the driving factors for land conversions. This study applied Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-MC and Multi-Layer Perceptron-Markov Chain (MLP-MC to model LULC and urban expansions. The performance of the CA-MC and MLP-MC yielded more than 90% overall accuracy to predict the LULC, especially the MLP-MC method. Further, the annual population and economic growth rates were considered to produce the land demand for the LULC in 2014 and 2035 using the statistical extrapolation and system dynamics (SD. It was evident that the simulated map in 2014 resulting from the SD yielded the highest accuracy. Therefore, this study applied the SD method to generate the land demand for simulating LULC in 2035. The outcome showed that urban occupied the land around a half of the BMR.

  15. A spatial multi-objective optimization model for sustainable urban wastewater system layout planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, X; Zeng, S; Chen, J

    2012-01-01

    Design of a sustainable city has changed the traditional centralized urban wastewater system towards a decentralized or clustering one. Note that there is considerable spatial variability of the factors that affect urban drainage performance including urban catchment characteristics. The potential options are numerous for planning the layout of an urban wastewater system, which are associated with different costs and local environmental impacts. There is thus a need to develop an approach to find the optimal spatial layout for collecting, treating, reusing and discharging the municipal wastewater of a city. In this study, a spatial multi-objective optimization model, called Urban wastewateR system Layout model (URL), was developed. It is solved by a genetic algorithm embedding Monte Carlo sampling and a series of graph algorithms. This model was illustrated by a case study in a newly developing urban area in Beijing, China. Five optimized system layouts were recommended to the local municipality for further detailed design.

  16. Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shabbir, Rabia; Ahmad, Sheikh Saeed [Department of Environmental Sciences, Fatima Jinnah Women University, Rawalpindi (Pakistan)

    2010-05-15

    A research associated with urban transportation was carried out in Rawalpindi and Islamabad to analyze the status of emission of air pollutants and energy demands. The study included a discussion of past trends and future scenarios in order to reduce the future emissions. A simple model of passenger transport has been developed using computer based software called Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). The LEAP model was used to estimate total energy demand and the vehicular emissions for the base year 2000 and extrapolated till 2030 for the future predictions. Transport database in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, together with fuel consumption values for the vehicle types and emission factors of NO{sub x}, SO{sub 2} and PM{sub 10} corresponding to the actual vehicle types, formed the basis of the transport demand, energy consumption and total emission calculations. Apart from base scenario, the model was run under three alternative scenarios to study the impact of different urban transport policy initiatives that would reduce energy demand and emissions in transport sector of Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The prime objective was to arrive at an optimal transport policy, which limits the future growth of fuel consumption as well as air pollution. (author)

  17. High-resolution flood modeling of urban areas using MSN_Flood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Hartnett

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Although existing hydraulic models have been used to simulate and predict urban flooding, most of these models are inadequate due to the high spatial resolution required to simulate flows in urban floodplains. Nesting high-resolution subdomains within coarser-resolution models is an efficient solution for enabling simultaneous calculation of flooding due to tides, surges, and high river flows. MSN_Flood has been developed to incorporate moving boundaries around nested domains, permitting alternate flooding and drying along the boundary and in the interior of the domain. Ghost cells adjacent to open boundary cells convert open boundaries, in effect, into internal boundaries. The moving boundary may be multi-segmented and non-continuous, with recirculating flow across the boundary. When combined with a bespoke adaptive interpolation scheme, this approach facilitates a dynamic internal boundary. Based on an alternating-direction semi-implicit finite difference scheme, MSN_Flood was used to hindcast a major flood event in Cork City resulting from the combined pressures of fluvial, tidal, and storm surge processes. The results show that the model is computationally efficient, as the 2-m high-resolution nest is used only in the urban flooded region. Elsewhere, lower-resolution nests are used. The results also show that the model is highly accurate when compared with measured data. The model is capable of incorporating nested sub-domains when the nested boundary is multi-segmented and highly complex with lateral gradients of elevation and velocities. This is a major benefit when modelling urban floodplains at very high resolution.

  18. India in the urban revolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijman, J.

    2012-01-01

    In the past decade, India’s development has featured rapid economic growth and unprecedented urbanization. Using preliminary results from the 2011 Census and recent macro-economic data, this paper analyses the relationship between urbanization and economic development in India. While urbanization is

  19. PALM-USM v1.0: A new urban surface model integrated into the PALM large-eddy simulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Resler

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Urban areas are an important part of the climate system and many aspects of urban climate have direct effects on human health and living conditions. This implies that reliable tools for local urban climate studies supporting sustainable urban planning are needed. However, a realistic implementation of urban canopy processes still poses a serious challenge for weather and climate modelling for the current generation of numerical models. To address this demand, a new urban surface model (USM, describing the surface energy processes for urban environments, was developed and integrated as a module into the PALM large-eddy simulation model. The development of the presented first version of the USM originated from modelling the urban heat island during summer heat wave episodes and thus implements primarily processes important in such conditions. The USM contains a multi-reflection radiation model for shortwave and longwave radiation with an integrated model of absorption of radiation by resolved plant canopy (i.e. trees, shrubs. Furthermore, it consists of an energy balance solver for horizontal and vertical impervious surfaces, and thermal diffusion in ground, wall, and roof materials, and it includes a simple model for the consideration of anthropogenic heat sources. The USM was parallelized using the standard Message Passing Interface and performance testing demonstrates that the computational costs of the USM are reasonable on typical clusters for the tested configurations. The module was fully integrated into PALM and is available via its online repository under the GNU General Public License (GPL. The USM was tested on a summer heat-wave episode for a selected Prague crossroads. The general representation of the urban boundary layer and patterns of surface temperatures of various surface types (walls, pavement are in good agreement with in situ observations made in Prague. Additional simulations were performed in order to assess the

  20. Modelling drivers and distribution of lead and zinc concentrations in soils of an urban catchment (Sydney estuary, Australia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, L E; Bishop, T F A; Birch, G F

    2017-11-15

    The human population is increasing globally and land use is changing to accommodate for this growth. Soils within urban areas require closer attention as the higher population density increases the chance of human exposure to urban contaminants. One such example of an urban area undergoing an increase in population density is Sydney, Australia. The city also possesses a notable history of intense industrial activity. By integrating multiple soil surveys and covariates into a linear mixed model, it was possible to determine the main drivers and map the distribution of lead and zinc concentrations within the Sydney estuary catchment. The main drivers as derived from the model included elevation, distance to main roads, main road type, soil landscape, population density (lead only) and land use (zinc only). Lead concentrations predicted using the model exceeded the established guideline value of 300mgkg -1 over a large portion of the study area with concentrations exceeding 1000mgkg -1 in the south of the catchment. Predicted zinc did not exceed the established guideline value of 7400mgkg -1 ; however concentrations were higher to the south and west of the study area. Unlike many other studies we considered the prediction uncertainty when assessing the contamination risk. Although the predictions indicate contamination over a large area, the broadness of the prediction intervals suggests that in many of these areas we cannot be sure that the site is contaminated. More samples are required to determine the contaminant distribution with greater precision, especially in residential areas where contamination was highest. Managing sources and addressing areas of elevated lead and zinc concentrations in urban areas has the potential to reduce the impact of past human activities and improve the urban environment of the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Interconnecting Urban Planning with Multi-Scale Urban Quality : Review of Macro Scale Urban Redevelopment Project on Micro Scale Urban Quality in Shenzhen

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deng, X.

    2015-01-01

    The Shenzhen planning system has been effective in promoting economic growth through the prodigious urbanization of land. It has given priority to the ‘macro-level’ planning goals of economic growth through physical development. Questions can be raised about the physical and social outcomes from the

  2. Population, migration and urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-06-01

    Despite recent estimates that natural increase is becoming a more important component of urban growth than rural urban transfer (excess of inmigrants over outmigrants), the share of migration in the total population growth has been consistently increasing in both developed and developing countries. From a demographic perspective, the migration process involves 3 elements: an area of origin which the mover leaves and where he or she is considered an outmigrant; the destination or place of inmigration; and the period over which migration is measured. The 2 basic types of migration are internal and international. Internal migration consists of rural to urban migration, urban to urban migration, rural to rural migration, and urban to rural migration. Among these 4 types of migration various patterns or processes are followed. Migration may be direct when the migrant moves directly from the village to the city and stays there permanently. It can be circular migration, meaning that the migrant moves to the city when it is not planting season and returns to the village when he is needed on the farm. In stage migration the migrant makes a series of moves, each to a city closer to the largest or fastest growing city. Temporary migration may be 1 time or cyclical. The most dominant pattern of internal migration is rural urban. The contribution of migration to urbanization is evident. For example, the rapid urbanization and increase in urban growth from 1960-70 in the Republic of Korea can be attributed to net migration. In Asia the largest component of the population movement consists of individuals and groups moving from 1 rural location to another. Recently, because urban centers could no longer absorb the growing number of migrants from other places, there has been increased interest in the urban to rural population redistribution. This reverse migration also has come about due to slower rates of employment growth in the urban centers and improved economic opportunities

  3. Constructing an Urban Population Model for Medical Insurance Scheme Using Microsimulation Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linping Xiong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available China launched a pilot project of medical insurance reform in 79 cities in 2007 to cover urban nonworking residents. An urban population model was created in this paper for China’s medical insurance scheme using microsimulation model techniques. The model made it clear for the policy makers the population distributions of different groups of people, the potential urban residents entering the medical insurance scheme. The income trends of units of individuals and families were also obtained. These factors are essential in making the challenging policy decisions when considering to balance the long-term financial sustainability of the medical insurance scheme.

  4. Urban Growth Areas, This Layer represents the current Urbanized Area for Atlanta as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. An Urbanized Area is a concept used by the U.S. Census Bureau to measure the population, land area and population density of a built-up or continuously deve, Published in 2000, 1:100000 (1in=8333ft) scale, Atlanta Regional Commission.

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Regional | GIS Inventory — Urban Growth Areas dataset current as of 2000. This Layer represents the current Urbanized Area for Atlanta as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. An Urbanized Area...

  5. Introduction: population migration and urbanization in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kojima, R

    1996-12-01

    This introductory article discusses the correlation between migration and rapid urbanization and growth in the largest cities of the developing world. The topics include the characteristics of urbanization, government policies toward population migration, the change in absolute size of the rural population, and the problems of maintaining megacities. Other articles in this special issue are devoted to urbanization patterns in China, South Africa, Iran, Korea and Taiwan as newly industrialized economies (NIEs), informal sectors in the Philippines and Thailand, and low-income settlements in Bogota, Colombia, and India. It is argued that increased urbanization is produced by natural population growth, the expansion of the urban administrative area, and the in-migration from rural areas. A comparison of urbanization rates of countries by per capita gross national product (GNP) reveals that countries with per capita GNP of under US$2000 have urbanization rates of 10-60%. Rates are under 30% in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, China, and Indonesia. Rapid urbanization appears to follow the economic growth curve. The rate of urbanization in Latin America is high enough to be comparable to urbanization in Europe and the US. Taiwan and Korea have high rates of urbanization that surpass the rate of industrialization. Thailand and Malaysia have low rates of urbanization compared to the size of their per capita GNP. Urbanization rates under 20% occur in countries without economic development. Rates between 20% and 50% occur in countries with or without industrialization. East Asian urbanization is progressing along with industrialization. Africa and the Middle East have urbanization without industrialization. In 1990 there were 20 developing countries and 5 developed countries with populations over 5 million. In 10 of 87 developing countries rural population declined in absolute size. The author identifies and discusses four patterns of urban growth.

  6. CityZoom UP (Urban Pollution): a computational tool for the fast generation and setup of urban scenarios for CFD and dispersion modelling simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Grazziotin, Pablo Colossi

    2016-01-01

    This research presents the development of CityZoom UP, the first attempt to extend existing urban planning software in order to assist in modelling urban scenarios and setting up simulation parameters for Gaussian dispersion and CFD models. Based on the previous capabilities and graphic user interfaces of CityZoom to model and validate urban scenarios based on Master Plan regulations, new graphic user interfaces, automatic mesh generation and data conversion algorithms have been created to se...

  7. Urbanization and Structural Transformation

    OpenAIRE

    Michaels, Guy; Rauch, Ferdinand; Redding, Stephen J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents new evidence on urbanization using sub-county data for the United States from 1880-2000 and municipality data for Brazil from 1970-2000. We show that the two central stylized features of population growth for cities - Gibrat's Law and a stable population distribution - are strongly rejected when both rural and urban areas are considered. Population growth exhibits a U-shaped relationship with initial population density, and only becomes uncorrelated with initial population...

  8. Urbanization and Sub-urbanization Processes Over Time and Space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obudho, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    Until recently, it was thought that Kenya would be an overwhelmingly rural country and that urbanization would not be a problem, because it was associated with modernization and industrialization. Both Government of Kenya (GoK) and international donor agencies fostered rural developmental and agricultural-based strategies without paying attention to rapid rates of urbanization. Today, the high rate of urbanization in Kenya has been added to the long list of potentially devastating development problems that must be addressed. The fundamental problem is that, the urban population is growing very fast while the economic growth and development transformations necessary to support it enhance the quality of urban life are not occurring as rapidly. The new planning strategy for Kenya is to move beyond isolated projects, that emphasize shelter and residential infrastructure towards integrated urban-wide effort that promote urban productivity and reduce constraints on efficiency

  9. Trends in Urbanization and Implications for Peri-Urban Livelihoods in Accra, Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adom, Cynthia

    Urbanization is a common occurrence in both developed and developing worlds. Similar to occurrences in other developing world cities, Accra's urbanization is marked by fast, unplanned and uneven growth into mostly peripheral lands (Grant and Yankson 2002; Yeboah 2001; Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) 2002). Such trends in urbanization in places where data on the urbanization process is seriously inadequate and infrequent, (Rakodi 1997a; Ohadika 1991; Fasona and Omojola 2004) pose a major challenge to urban planning and management (Henderson 2002), and affect the livelihood base of several peri-urban households. Properly monitoring the urbanization process in the developing world and understanding its effects on people's lives depends on the availability of useful and up-to- date data (Weber and Puissant 2003; Mundia and Aniya 2006) that could be obtained using new and robust analytical techniques (Yang 2003). In addition, in the urban environment, differences in rates of urbanization, income, employment status, and gender dynamics across neighborhoods suggest that the impacts of increasing urbanization on peri-urban livelihoods are likely to vary across peoples and places. Against this backdrop, this dissertation uses Accra as a case study to, first, measures the nature and extent of urban expansion using a non-conventional technique, and then analyzes neighborhood - and gender-differentiated impacts of increasing urbanization on household livelihoods in peri-urban Accra. Study findings reveal: 1) major conversion of vegetated land to urban lands uses and support the effectiveness of the Self-Organizing Map and Landsat data to map complex and hazy urban tropical environments; 2) that the impacts of urbanization on peri-urban livelihoods are structured along the lines of neighborhood-level urbanization; changes brought by a higher rate of urbanization are more beneficial than harmful to household livelihoods; 3) that positive livelihood outcomes in high-growth

  10. Residential mobility and trajectories of adiposity among adolescents in urban and non-urban neighborhoods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Antwan

    2015-04-01

    Using data from the 1994-2008 National Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (Add Health), this research examines the relationship between residential mobility and weight gain over time among urban and non-urban young adults. It is theorized that changes in residence act as a barrier to achieving an active lifestyle, which would increase an individual's body mass index (BMI) over time. Relying on linear mixed-effects growth curve models, the results indicate that mobility is protective against weight gain over time after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics. For young adults who are residentially stable in urban neighborhoods, increases in physical activity are associated with a linear decline in BMI. In non-urban areas where respondents are residentially mobile, body weight does not fluctuate as sedentary behavior increases. However, in those areas, weight increases as sedentary behavior increases for those who did not move. Overall, the results suggest that the effect of mobility on weight gain is partially due to the kind of health behaviors that one engages in as well as whether or not one lives in an urban area. Policies geared toward relocating residents (such as Moving to Opportunity), and neighborhood processes that can lead individuals to change residences (such as foreclosures or gentrification) may have adverse health effects depending on whether they are occurring in urban or non-urban areas.

  11. Modeling the effect of urban infrastructure on hydrologic processes within i-Tree Hydro, a statistically and spatially distributed model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taggart, T. P.; Endreny, T. A.; Nowak, D.

    2014-12-01

    Gray and green infrastructure in urban environments alters many natural hydrologic processes, creating an urban water balance unique to the developed environment. A common way to assess the consequences of impervious cover and grey infrastructure is by measuring runoff hydrographs. This focus on the watershed outlet masks the spatial variation of hydrologic process alterations across the urban environment in response to localized landscape characteristics. We attempt to represent this spatial variation in the urban environment using the statistically and spatially distributed i-Tree Hydro model, a scoping level urban forest effects water balance model. i-Tree Hydro has undergone expansion and modification to include the effect of green infrastructure processes, road network attributes, and urban pipe system leakages. These additions to the model are intended to increase the understanding of the altered urban hydrologic cycle by examining the effects of the location of these structures on the water balance. Specifically, the effect of these additional structures and functions on the spatially varying properties of interception, soil moisture and runoff generation. Differences in predicted properties and optimized parameter sets between the two models are examined and related to the recent landscape modifications. Datasets used in this study consist of watersheds and sewersheds within the Syracuse, NY metropolitan area, an urban area that has integrated green and gray infrastructure practices to alleviate stormwater problems.

  12. Modelling carbon dynamics from urban land conversion: fundamental model of city in relation to a local carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schellnhuber Hans-Joachim

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The main task is to estimate the qualitative and quantitative contribution of urban territories and precisely of the process of urbanization to the Global Carbon Cycle (GCC. Note that, on the contrary to many investigations that have considered direct anthropogenic emission of CO2(urbanized territories produce ca. 96–98% of it, we are interested in more subtle, and up until the present time, weaker processes associated with the conversion of the surrounding natural ecosystems and landscapes into urban lands. Such conversion inevitably takes place when cities are sprawling and additional "natural" lands are becoming "urbanized". Results In order to fulfil this task, we first develop a fundamental model of urban space, since the type of land cover within a city makes a difference for a local carbon cycle. Hence, a city is sub-divided by built-up, „green" (parks, etc. and informal settlements (favelas fractions. Another aspect is a sub-division of the additional two regions, which makes the total number reaching eight regions, while the UN divides the world by six. Next, the basic model of the local carbon cycle for urbanized territories is built. We consider two processes: carbon emissions as a result of conversion of natural lands caused by urbanization; and the transformation of carbon flows by "urbanized" ecosystems; when carbon, accumulated by urban vegetation, is exported to the neighbouring territories. The total carbon flow in the model depends, in general, on two groups of parameters. The first includes the NPP, and the sum of living biomass and dead organic matter of ecosystems involved in the process of urbanization, and namely them we calculate here, using a new more realistic approach and taking into account the difference in regional cities' evolution. Conclusion There is also another group of parameters, dealing with the areas of urban territories, and their annual increments. A method of dynamic forecasting

  13. A study on the causal effect of urban population growth and international trade on environmental pollution: evidence from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boamah, Kofi Baah; Du, Jianguo; Boamah, Angela Jacinta; Appiah, Kingsley

    2018-02-01

    This study seeks to contribute to the recent literature by empirically investigating the causal effect of urban population growth and international trade on environmental pollution of China, for the period 1980-2014. The Johansen cointegration confirmed a long-run cointegration association among the utilised variables for the case of China. The direction of causality among the variables was, consequently, investigated using the recent bootstrapped Granger causality test. This bootstrapped Granger causality approach is preferred as it provides robust and accurate critical values for statistical inferences. The findings from the causality analysis revealed the existence of a bi-directional causality between import and urban population. The three most paramount variables that explain the environmental pollution in China, according to the impulse response function, are imports, urbanisation and energy consumption. Our study further established the presence of an N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution of China. Hence, our study recommends that China should adhere to stricter environmental regulations in international trade, as well as enforce policies that promote energy efficiency in the urban residential and commercial sector, in the quest to mitigate environmental pollution issues as the economy advances.

  14. A Remote Sensing-based Characterization of the Urban Heat Island and its Implications for Modeled Estimates of Urban Biogenic Carbon Fluxes in Boston, MA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Friedl, M. A.; Hutyra, L.; Hardiman, B. S.

    2015-12-01

    Urban land use occupies a small but critical proportion of global land area for the carbon cycle, and in the coming decades, urban land area is expected to nearly double. Conversion of natural land cover to urban land cover imposes myriad ecological effects, including increased land surface and air temperatures via the urban heat island effect. In this study, we characterize the seasonal and spatial characteristics of the urban heat island over Boston, MA and estimate its consequences on biogenic carbon fluxes with a remote sensing-based model. Using a 12-year time series of emissivity- and atmospherically-corrected land surface temperatures from Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery, we find a high degree of spatial heterogeneity and consistent seasonal patterns in the thermal properties of Boston, controlled mainly by variations in vegetative cover. Field measurements of surface air temperature across an urbanization gradient show season- and vegetation-dependent patterns consistent with those observed in the Landsat data. With a fused data set that combines surface air temperature, MODIS, and Landsat observations, we modify and run the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) to explore 1) how elevated temperatures affect diurnal and seasonal patterns of hourly urban biogenic carbon fluxes in Massachusetts in 2013 and 2014 and 2) to what extent these fluxes follow spatial patterns found in the urban heat island. Model modifications simulate the ecological effects of urbanization, including empirical adjustments to reanalysis-driven air temperatures (up to 5 K) and ecosystem respiration reduced by impervious surface area. Model results reveal spatio-temporal patterns consistent with strong land use and vegetation cover controls on biogenic carbon fluxes, with non-trivial biogenic annual net ecosystem exchange occurring in urban and suburban areas (up to -2.5 MgC/ha/yr). We specifically consider the feedbacks between Boston's urban heat island and landscape

  15. Correlation or Causality between Land Cover Patterns and the Urban Heat Island Effect? Evidence from Brisbane, Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaveh Deilami

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Numerous studies have identified associations between the surface urban heat island (SUHI effect (i.e., SUHI, hereinafter is referred to as UHI and urban growth, particularly changes in land cover patterns. This research questions their causal links to answer a key policy question: If cities restrict urban expansion and encourage people to live within existing urban areas, will that help in controlling UHI? The question has been answered by estimating four models using data from Brisbane, Australia: Model 1—cross-sectional ordinary least square (OLS regression—to examine the association between the UHI effect and land cover patterns in 2013; Model 2—cross-sectional geographically weighted regression (GWR—to examine whether the outputs generated from Model 1 possess significant spatial variations; Model 3—longitudinal OLS—to examine whether changes in land cover patterns led to changes in UHI effects between 2004 and 2013; and Model 4—longitudinal GWR—to examine whether the outputs generated from Model 3 vary significantly over space. All estimations were controlled for potential confounding effects (e.g., population, employment and dwelling densities. Results from the cross-sectional OLS and GWR models were consistent with previous findings and showed that porosity is negatively associated with the UHI effect in 2013. In contrast, population density has a positive association. Results from the longitudinal OLS and GWR models confirm their causal linkages and showed that an increase in porosity level reduced the UHI effect, whereas an increase in population density increased the UHI effect. The findings suggest that even a containment of population growth within existing urban areas will lead to the UHI effect. However, this can be significantly minimized through proper land use planning, by creating a balance between urban and non-urban uses of existing urban areas.

  16. An urban runoff model designed to inform stormwater management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Nicole G; Conley, Gary; Kanner, Lisa; Mathias, Margaret

    2017-05-15

    We present an urban runoff model designed for stormwater managers to quantify runoff reduction benefits of mitigation actions that has lower input data and user expertise requirements than most commonly used models. The stormwater tool to estimate load reductions (TELR) employs a semi-distributed approach, where landscape characteristics and process representation are spatially-lumped within urban catchments on the order of 100 acres (40 ha). Hydrologic computations use a set of metrics that describe a 30-year rainfall distribution, combined with well-tested algorithms for rainfall-runoff transformation and routing to generate average annual runoff estimates for each catchment. User inputs include the locations and specifications for a range of structural best management practice (BMP) types. The model was tested in a set of urban catchments within the Lake Tahoe Basin of California, USA, where modeled annual flows matched that of the observed flows within 18% relative error for 5 of the 6 catchments and had good regional performance for a suite of performance metrics. Comparisons with continuous simulation models showed an average of 3% difference from TELR predicted runoff for a range of hypothetical urban catchments. The model usually identified the dominant BMP outflow components within 5% relative error of event-based measured flow data and simulated the correct proportionality between outflow components. TELR has been implemented as a web-based platform for use by municipal stormwater managers to inform prioritization, report program benefits and meet regulatory reporting requirements (www.swtelr.com). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Urban adaptation to mega-drought: Anticipatory water modeling, policy, and planning in Phoenix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gober, P.; Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Chow, W.

    2016-12-01

    There is increasing interest in using the results of water models for long-term planning and policy analysis. Achieving this goal requires more effective integration of human dimensions into water modeling and a paradigm shift in the way models are developed and used. A user-defined focus argues in favor of models that are designed to foster public debate and engagement about the difficult trade-offs that are inevitable in managing complex water systems. These models also emphasize decision making under uncertainty and anticipatory planning, and are developed through a collaborative and iterative process. This paper demonstrates the use of anticipatory modeling for long-term drought planning in Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to explore groundwater sustainability outcomes for mega-drought conditions across a range of policies, including population growth management, water conservation, water banking, direct reuse of RO reclaimed water, and water augmentation. Results revealed that business-as-usual population growth, per capita use trends, and management strategies may not be sustainable over the long term, even without mega-drought conditions as years of available groundwater supply decline over the simulation period from 2000 to 2060. Adding mega-drought increases the decline in aquifer levels and increases the variability in flows and uncertainty about future groundwater supplies. Simulations that combine drought management policies can return the region to sustainable. Results demonstrate the value of long-term planning and policy analysis for anticipating and adapting to environmental change.

  18. High-resolution urban flood modelling - a joint probability approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartnett, Michael; Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen

    2017-04-01

    The hydrodynamic modelling of rapid flood events due to extreme climatic events in urban environment is both a complex and challenging task. The horizontal resolution necessary to resolve complexity of urban flood dynamics is a critical issue; the presence of obstacles of varying shapes and length scales, gaps between buildings and the complex geometry of the city such as slopes affect flow paths and flood levels magnitudes. These small scale processes require a high resolution grid to be modelled accurately (2m or less, Olbert et al., 2015; Hunter et al., 2008; Brown et al., 2007) and, therefore, altimetry data of at least the same resolution. Along with availability of high-resolution LiDAR data and computational capabilities, as well as state of the art nested modelling approaches, these problems can now be overcome. Flooding and drying, domain definition, frictional resistance and boundary descriptions are all important issues to be addressed when modelling urban flooding. In recent years, the number of urban flood models dramatically increased giving a good insight into various modelling problems and solutions (Mark et al., 2004; Mason et al., 2007; Fewtrell et al., 2008; Shubert et al., 2008). Despite extensive modelling work conducted for fluvial (e.g. Mignot et al., 2006; Hunter et al., 2008; Yu and Lane, 2006) and coastal mechanisms of flooding (e.g. Gallien et al., 2011; Yang et al., 2012), the amount of investigations into combined coastal-fluvial flooding is still very limited (e.g. Orton et al., 2012; Lian et al., 2013). This is surprising giving the extent of flood consequences when both mechanisms occur simultaneously, which usually happens when they are driven by one process such as a storm. The reason for that could be the fact that the likelihood of joint event is much smaller than those of any of the two contributors occurring individually, because for fast moving storms the rainfall-driven fluvial flood arrives usually later than the storm surge

  19. Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land-use ANalysis: Temperature and Air quality): A Study of how the Urban Landscape Affects Meteorology and Air Quality Through Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Estes, Maurice G.; Lo, C. P.; Kidder, Stanley Q.; Hafner, Jan; Taha, Haider; Bornstein, Robert D.; Gillies, Robert R.; Gallo, Kevin P.

    1998-01-01

    It is our intent through this investigation to help facilitate measures that can be Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land-use ANalysis: applied to mitigate climatological or air quality Temperature and Air-quality) is a NASA Earth degradation, or to design alternate measures to sustain Observing System (EOS) Interdisciplinary Science or improve the overall urban environment in the future. investigation that seeks to observe, measure, model, and analyze how the rapid growth of the Atlanta. The primary objectives for this research effort are: 1) To In the last half of the 20th century, Atlanta, investigate and model the relationship between Atlanta Georgia has risen as the premier commercial, urban growth, land cover change, and the development industrial, and transportation urban area of the of the urban heat island phenomenon through time at southeastern United States. The rapid growth of the nested spatial scales from local to regional; 2) To Atlanta area, particularly within the last 25 years, has investigate and model the relationship between Atlanta made Atlanta one of the fastest growing metropolitan urban growth and land cover change on air quality areas in the United States. The population of the through time at nested spatial scales from local to Atlanta metropolitan area increased 27% between 1970 regional; and 3) To model the overall effects of urban and 1980, and 33% between 1980-1990 (Research development on surface energy budget characteristics Atlanta, Inc., 1993). Concomitant with this high rate of across the Atlanta urban landscape through time at population growth, has been an explosive growth in nested spatial scales from local to regional. Our key retail, industrial, commercial, and transportation goal is to derive a better scientific understanding of how services within the Atlanta region. This has resulted in land cover changes associated with urbanization in the tremendous land cover change dynamics within the Atlanta area, principally in transforming

  20. Urban Noise Modelling in Boka Kotorska Bay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Nikolić

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Traffic is the most significant noise source in urban areas. The village of Kamenari in Boka Kotorska Bay is a site where, in a relatively small area, road traffic and sea (ferry traffic take place at the same time. Due to the specificity of the location, i.e. very rare synergy of sound effects of road and sea traffic in the urban area, as well as the expressed need for assessment of noise level in a simple and quick way, a research was conducted, using empirical methods and statistical analysis methods, which led to the creation of acoustic model for the assessment of equivalent noise level (Leq. The developed model for noise assessment in the Village of Kamenari in Boka Kotorska Bay quite realistically provides data on possible noise levels at the observed site, with very little deviations in relation to empirically obtained values.

  1. Prevalent vegetation growth enhancement in urban environment

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Zhou, Decheng

    2016-01-01

    Cities experiencing elevated temperature (i.e., urban “heat island” warming), CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the projected average global change are regarded as the “harbingers” of the future global change. It is for this reason that cities have been regarded as ideal natural laboratories for global change studies and particularly valuable to elucidate the potential responses of other nonurban ecosystems to future climate and environmental changes. However, the impacts of urban...

  2. Using urban forest assessment tools to model bird habitat potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerman, Susannah B.; Nislow, Keith H.; Nowak, David J.; DeStefano, Stephen; King, David I.; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd

    2014-01-01

    The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat to sustain bird and other wildlife populations. The primary goal of this study was to integrate wildlife suitability indices to an existing national urban forest assessment tool, i-Tree. We quantified available habitat characteristics of urban forests for ten northeastern U.S. cities, and summarized bird habitat relationships from the literature in terms of variables that were represented in the i-Tree datasets. With these data, we generated habitat suitability equations for nine bird species representing a range of life history traits and conservation status that predicts the habitat suitability based on i-Tree data. We applied these equations to the urban forest datasets to calculate the overall habitat suitability for each city and the habitat suitability for different types of land-use (e.g., residential, commercial, parkland) for each bird species. The proposed habitat models will help guide wildlife managers, urban planners, and landscape designers who require specific information such as desirable habitat conditions within an urban management project to help improve the suitability of urban forests for birds.

  3. a Quadtree Organization Construction and Scheduling Method for Urban 3d Model Based on Weight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, C.; Peng, G.; Song, Y.; Duan, M.

    2017-09-01

    The increasement of Urban 3D model precision and data quantity puts forward higher requirements for real-time rendering of digital city model. Improving the organization, management and scheduling of 3D model data in 3D digital city can improve the rendering effect and efficiency. This paper takes the complexity of urban models into account, proposes a Quadtree construction and scheduling rendering method for Urban 3D model based on weight. Divide Urban 3D model into different rendering weights according to certain rules, perform Quadtree construction and schedule rendering according to different rendering weights. Also proposed an algorithm for extracting bounding box extraction based on model drawing primitives to generate LOD model automatically. Using the algorithm proposed in this paper, developed a 3D urban planning&management software, the practice has showed the algorithm is efficient and feasible, the render frame rate of big scene and small scene are both stable at around 25 frames.

  4. A QUADTREE ORGANIZATION CONSTRUCTION AND SCHEDULING METHOD FOR URBAN 3D MODEL BASED ON WEIGHT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Yao

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The increasement of Urban 3D model precision and data quantity puts forward higher requirements for real-time rendering of digital city model. Improving the organization, management and scheduling of 3D model data in 3D digital city can improve the rendering effect and efficiency. This paper takes the complexity of urban models into account, proposes a Quadtree construction and scheduling rendering method for Urban 3D model based on weight. Divide Urban 3D model into different rendering weights according to certain rules, perform Quadtree construction and schedule rendering according to different rendering weights. Also proposed an algorithm for extracting bounding box extraction based on model drawing primitives to generate LOD model automatically. Using the algorithm proposed in this paper, developed a 3D urban planning&management software, the practice has showed the algorithm is efficient and feasible, the render frame rate of big scene and small scene are both stable at around 25 frames.

  5. Examining The Evolution Of The Khuzestan Urban Population Using The Urban Primacy Indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mokhtar Karami

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Examining the status of a city in the surrounding metropolitan area network not only helpful for Specialists to understand the ups and downs of city life and surrounding it but also can set the groundwork for hierarchical relationships settlements and planners for discipline the urban network is studied. Research to study the evolution of the urban population in Khuzestan province was conducted during the statistical period 1957-2012. The method is a descriptive and analytical study. To collect the data in addition the study of literature the Facts Sheet the statistical yearbooks and census of population and housing censuses in all courses has been used. Then to enter data and analysis it the Excel and Minitab software was used. Models used in this study are Ginsberg index Urban Primacy Index Two City Index Four City Index Mehtas Four City Index Moomav and Alwosabi. The results show that is balance between the parameters of the Urban Primacy Indexes in Khuzestan province since 1957 to 1977. The process of balancing continue and is destroy until the beginning of the Imposed war and the depletion of the population of cities and in 1987 the Urban Primacy Index reached its highest level and due to the problems of the war in Ahvaz it earns the highest the Urban Primacy Index. Since 1987 the Urban Primacy Index reduced and their balancing process continues until 2012 that this balancing process due to natural population growth since after 1997.

  6. Strategies for Urbanization and Economic Competitiveness in Burundi

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group

    2015-01-01

    This report argues that urbanization brings significant opportunities for both rural and urban areas and that Burundi needs to prioritize issues of economic growth and job creation. Based on a diagnostic evaluation of the current urbanization and spatial growth, GDP, and job potential, the report highlights the importance of prioritizing policies and investments to address deficiencies in ...

  7. A discrete-space urban model with environmental amenities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liaila Tajibaeva; Robert G. Haight; Stephen Polasky

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of providing environmental amenities associated with open space in a discrete-space urban model and characterizes optimal provision of open space across a metropolitan area. The discrete-space model assumes distinct neighborhoods in which developable land is homogeneous within a neighborhood but heterogeneous across neighborhoods. Open...

  8. Heuristic urban transportation network design method, a multilayer coevolution approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Rui; Ujang, Norsidah; Hamid, Hussain bin; Manan, Mohd Shahrudin Abd; Li, Rong; Wu, Jianjun

    2017-08-01

    The design of urban transportation networks plays a key role in the urban planning process, and the coevolution of urban networks has recently garnered significant attention in literature. However, most of these recent articles are based on networks that are essentially planar. In this research, we propose a heuristic multilayer urban network coevolution model with lower layer network and upper layer network that are associated with growth and stimulate one another. We first use the relative neighbourhood graph and the Gabriel graph to simulate the structure of rail and road networks, respectively. With simulation we find that when a specific number of nodes are added, the total travel cost ratio between an expanded network and the initial lower layer network has the lowest value. The cooperation strength Λ and the changeable parameter average operation speed ratio Θ show that transit users' route choices change dramatically through the coevolution process and that their decisions, in turn, affect the multilayer network structure. We also note that the simulated relation between the Gini coefficient of the betweenness centrality, Θ and Λ have an optimal point for network design. This research could inspire the analysis of urban network topology features and the assessment of urban growth trends.

  9. Using Parametrics to Facilitate Collaborative Urban Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steinø, Nicolai; Benbih, Karima; Obeling, Esben

    2013-01-01

    in the context of the urban South which is characterized by high urban growth rates, weak planning systems and modest means. The current state of planning and urban development in Morocco is introduced as a context for discussing collaborative urban design and parametric urban design, and some tentative...

  10. Urban Re-qualification and New Centralization in Quelimane, Mozambique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klayde Karmila Gaspar Evaristo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This essay analyses urban restructuring caused by the introduction of new economic activities undertaken by private sector agents in Quelimane, Mozambique. The research investigated the process of urbanization and expansion of the city, economic dynamics and production of urban space, the growth of commerce and specialized services, social inequality and socio-spatial precariousness. The study seeks to demonstrate how issues related to the economic activities, agents and roles of actors in the process of urban restructuring are portrayed. A qualitative approach was used, involving interviews of key actors. The research revealed that urban restructuring in Quelimane in the recent past occurred informally and spontaneously as it still does today. Urban expansion reflects occupational models, the most expressive being economic activities undertaken by small and medium enterprises involving hotels, the provision of specialized goods and services, commerce, civil construction, entertainment and passenger transport in bicycle taxis. The study suggests that in the process of urban restructuring planners must be morecareful to embrace excluded actors. Similarly, the process of urban restructuring and city expansion must follow models of urban re-qualification based not only on official norms but which also take indigenous knowledge into account. This is fundamental in times of globalization in order to accommodate political, cultural and socio-economic functional systems.

  11. Strategic management in urban environment using SWOT and QSPM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pazouki

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable urban development is a new concept of fundamental environmental metropolitan management that not only creates the demand for changing the concepts of economic development, but also affects social development. The current study  provides  a conceptual model of a sustainable environment pattern In District 22 of Tehran that depends on the relationship between environment and economy, and a network of urban function, which  Included transport infrastructure and community centers and economic and regional level in support of the ecological services in Tehran. This landscape often  had discrepancies  with the development of the city between the layers and the creation of ecological fragile areas. The main objective of the study was to determine the sustainability indicators and create a future development  model  for District 22 of Tehran. The data was collected by having a review of similar studies and field research on the subject and therefore the effective factors were identified. After accomplished proceedings, the questionnaire was prepared and the results were used in SWOT charts' grading after analyzing at interior and exterior matrix. Ultimately, quantitative strategic planning matrix (QSPM was performed based on the results and analysis. This process provided a comprehensive model for sustainable urban development as sustainable development urban landscape pattern.

  12. Energy demand in China: Comparison of characteristics between the US and China in rapid urbanization stage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Boqiang; Ouyang, Xiaoling

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Energy demand characteristics of the US and China were compared. • Major factors affecting energy demand were examined based on the panel data and the cointegration models. • China’s energy demand would reach 5498.13 Mtce in 2020 and 6493.07 Mtce in 2030. • Urbanization can be an opportunity for low-carbon development in China. - Abstract: China’s energy demand has shown characteristics of rigid growth in the current urbanization stage. This paper applied the panel data model and the cointegration model to examine the determinants of energy demand in China, and then forecasts China’s energy demand based on the scenario analysis. Results demonstrate an inverted U-shaped relationship between energy demand and economic growth in the long term. In business as usual scenario, China’s energy consumption will reach 6493.07 million tons of coal equivalent in 2030. The conclusions can be drawn on the basis of the comparison of characteristics between the US and China. First, energy demand has rigid growth characteristics in the rapid urbanization stage. Second, coal-dominated energy structure of China will lead to the severe problems of CO 2 emissions. Third, rapid economic growth requires that energy prices should not rise substantially, so that energy conservation will be the major strategy for China’s low-carbon transition. Major policy implications are: first, urbanization can be used as an opportunity for low-carbon development; second, energy price reform is crucial for China’s energy sustainability

  13. Bobos in Paradise: Urban Politics and the New Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Gilles Saint-Paul

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides some elements to explain the observed takeover in some urban areas of a new kind of elite associated with new economy jobs, also known as "bourgeois bohème" (bobos). This takeover has been associated with greater investment in urban amenities and "clean" means of transport, with adverse effects on commuting time. The model allows us to explain those developments by productivity is growth in the new economy, and by the differences in production processes between the new and...

  14. A Study of the Oklahoma City Urban Heat Island Effect Using a WRF/Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model, a Joint Urban 2003 Field Campaign, and MODIS Satellite Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hengyue Zhang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The urban heat island effect (UHI for inner land regions was investigated using satellite data, ground observations, and simulations with an Single-Layer Urban Canopy Parameterization (SLUCP coupled into the regional Weather Research Forecasting model (WRF, http://wrf-model.org/index.php. Specifically, using the satellite-observed surface skin temperatures (Tskin, the intensity of the UHI was first compared for two inland cities (Xi’an City, China, and Oklahoma City (OKC, which have different city populations and building densities. The larger population density and larger building density in Xi’an lead to a stronger skin-level UHI by 2 °C. However, the ground observed 2 m surface air temperature (Tair observations showed an urban cooling island effect (UCI over the downtown region in OKC during the daytime of 19 July 2003, from a DOE field campaign (Joint Urban 2003. To understand this contrast between satellite-based Tskin and ground-based Tair, a sensitivity study using WRF/SLUCP was analyzed. The model reproduced a UCI in OKC. Furthermore, WRF/Noah/SLUCM simulations were also compared with the Joint Urban 2003 ground observations, including wind speeds, wind directions, and energy fluxes. Although the WRF/SLUCM model failed to simulate these variables accurately, it reproduced the diurnal variations of surface temperatures, wind speeds, wind directions, and energy fluxes reasonably well.

  15. The impact of urban open space and 'lift-up' building design on building intake fraction and daily pollutant exposure in idealized urban models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sha, Chenyuan; Wang, Xuemei; Lin, Yuanyuan; Fan, Yifan; Chen, Xi; Hang, Jian

    2018-08-15

    Sustainable urban design is an effective way to improve urban ventilation and reduce vehicular pollutant exposure to urban residents. This paper investigated the impacts of urban open space and 'lift-up' building design on vehicular CO (carbon monoxide) exposure in typical three-dimensional (3D) urban canopy layer (UCL) models under neutral atmospheric conditions. The building intake fraction (IF) represents the fraction of total vehicular pollutant emissions inhaled by residents when they stay at home. The building daily CO exposure (E t ) means the extent of human beings' contact with CO within one day indoor at home. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations integrating with these two concepts were performed to solve turbulent flow and assess vehicular CO exposure to urban residents. CFD technique with the standard k-ε model was successfully validated by wind tunnel data. The initial numerical UCL model consists of 5-row and 5-column (5×5) cubic buildings (building height H=street width W=30m) with four approaching wind directions (θ=0°, 15°, 30°, 45°). In Group I, one of the 25 building models is removed to attain urban open space settings. In Group II, the first floor (Lift-up1), or second floor (Lift-up2), or third floor (Lift-up3) of all buildings is elevated respectively to create wind pathways through buildings. Compared to the initial case, urban open space can slightly or significantly reduce pollutant exposure for urban residents. As θ=30° and 45°, open space settings are more effective to reduce pollutant exposure than θ=0° and 15°.The pollutant dilution near or surrounding open space and in its adjacent downstream regions is usually enhanced. Lift-up1 and Lift-up2 experience much greater pollutant exposure reduction in all wind directions than Lift-up3 and open space. Although further investigations are still required to provide practical guidelines, this study is one of the first attempts for reducing urban pollutant exposure by

  16. Urban Transport and Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irandu, E.M.

    1999-01-01

    The population according to the 1989 census was 21,448,774 inhabitants. This figure shows that on average the total population has been increasing by more than 40% every decade since 1948. As a result the widening gap between fertility and mortality, the population is growing at an accelerated rate. The current official population growth rate figure of 3.4% per annum puts the country among the world's most rapidly growing nations. It is projected that by the year 2010, the population will be about 37.4 million. At present the urban centres with a population size of 2,000 people and above constitute about 18.1% of the total population (Kenya, 1994). Rapid economic growth has led to the development of a number of urban centres as centres of commerce, industry and tourism. Consequently, this has led to rural urban drift. This drift to urban areas causes a number of problems which if unresolved will limit the ability of the urban centres to support their population The rapid increase in urban population causes a shortage of facilities to meet the increasing demand in services such as public transport, water supply, sewage and housing (Ramatullah, 1997: 161-168). Urban Transport acts as catalyst to both urban and national development, by facilitating the movements associated with urban and national Development. They provide a means by which goods and services are made available to industry and consumers, creating opportunity for social and economic interaction and employment. Without urban transport, access to health, education and employment would not be possible. Indeed urban transport is what gives life to urban development

  17. [The control of urban growth in Mexico City. Suppositions regarding poor planning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, A G; Olvera, G

    1991-01-01

    Plan of the state of Mexico published in 1986 proposed 2 important programs for controlling urban growth. The territorial reserves program aimed to anticipate the need and make available through purchase, expropriation, or other means sufficient lands for housing to which the lowest income groups would share access. The "Paint Your Line" program establiished physical limits for urban expansion in each of the 17 conurban municipios in the State of Mexico. To date, however, few lands have been set aside for legal acquisition and the Paint Your Line program has been slow in delimiting the areas to be settled. Data from a 1989 study in the municipios of Chalco and Ixtapaluca demonstrate the shortcomings of the programs, which do not address the true processes and agents that control new settlements and especially illegal occupations and which fail to satisfy the needs of low-income population sectors.

  18. Development of urban runoff model FFC-QUAL for first-flush water-quality analysis in urban drainage basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hur, Sungchul; Nam, Kisung; Kim, Jungsoo; Kwak, Changjae

    2018-01-01

    An urban runoff model that is able to compute the runoff, the pollutant loadings, and the concentrations of water-quality constituents in urban drainages during the first flush was developed. This model, which is referred to as FFC-QUAL, was modified from the existing ILLUDAS model and added for use during the water-quality analysis process for dry and rainy periods. For the dry period, the specifications of the coefficients for the discharge and water quality were used. During rainfall, we used the Clark and time-area methods for the runoff analyses of pervious and impervious areas to consider the effects of the subbasin shape; moreover, four pollutant accumulation methods and the washoff equation for computing the water quality each time were used. According to the verification results, FFC-QUAL provides generally similar output as the measured data for the peak flow, total runoff volume, total loadings, peak concentration, and time of peak concentration for three rainfall events in the Gunja subbasin. In comparison with the ILLUDAS, SWMM, and MOUSE models, there is little difference between these models and the model developed in this study. The proposed model should be useful in urban watersheds because of its simplicity and its capacity to model common pollutants (e.g., biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, Escherichia coli, suspended solids, and total nitrogen and phosphorous) in runoff. The proposed model can also be used in design studies to determine how changes in infrastructure will affect the runoff and pollution loads. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  19. Assessing the ecosystem service potential of Tucson AZ's urban forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavao-Zuckerman, M.

    2011-12-01

    canopy photos) to asses growth of the trees in the urban environment. These growth rates, and associated ecosystem services (C-sequestration, energy savings, pollution mitigation, etc.) are evaluated using US Forest Service models (Tree Carbon Calculator and i-tree software) to determine how the performance of trees in the Tucson urban environment perform vs. model predictions. We hypothesize that the models overestimate tree performance as Tucson differs in water availability relative to the cities the model was parameterized in (e.g. Glendale), both in terms of soil water holding capacities and also city "water culture." This preliminary study will provide a data collection framework for a citizen science urban forestry project which will provide data to improve environmental decision making related to the interaction of plants, water, and energy balance in this arid city.

  20. Climate Change Adaptation. Challenges and Opportunities for a Smart Urban Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Galderisi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the main environmental issues challenging cities in the 21th century. At present, more than half of the world population lives in cities and the latter are responsible for 60% to 80% of global energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, which are the main causes of the change in climate conditions. In the meantime, they are seriously threatened by the heterogeneous climate-related phenomena, very often exacerbated by the features of the cities themselves. In the last decade, international and European efforts have been mainly focused on mitigation rather than on adaptation strategies. Europe is one of the world leaders in global mitigation policies, while the issue of adaptation has gained growing importance in the last years. As underlined by the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, even though climate change mitigation still remains a priority for the global community, large room has to be devoted to adaptation measures, in order to effectively face the unavoidable impacts and related economic, environmental and social costs of climate change (EC, 2013. Thus, measures for adaptation to climate change are receiving an increasing financial support and a growing number of European countries are implementing national and urban adaptation strategies to deal with the actual and potential climate change impacts. According to the above considerations, this paper explores strengths and weaknesses of current adaptation strategies in European cities. First the main suggestions of the European Community to improve urban adaptation to climate change are examined; then, some recent Adaptation Plans are analyzed, in order to highlight challenges and opportunities arising from the adaptation processes at urban level and to explore the potential of Adaptation Plans to promote a smart growth in the European cities.

  1. India’s urban challenge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijman, J.

    2012-01-01

    In the past decade, India's development has featured rapid economic growth and unprecedented urbanization. Using preliminary results from the 2011 Census and recent macro-economic data, the paper by a noted EU-based specialist analyzes the relationship between urbanization and economic development

  2. Urbanization and Inequality/Poverty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brantley Liddle

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The level of world urbanization has crossed the 50% mark, and nearly all future population growth is projected to occur in cities. Cities are disproportionately wealthy, but are associated with poverty, too. Addressing the dual challenges of urbanization and poverty is key to achieving sustainable development. This paper performs cross-sectional regressions, based on Kuznets, as a starting point for understanding the relationship between urbanization and poverty/inequality indicators. Increases in gross domestic product per capita unambiguously lowered poverty and narrowed rural-urban gaps. By contrast, levels of urbanization were either unrelated to poverty/inequality indicators and measures of rural-urban gaps, or had a nonlinear effect where, initially, increases in urbanization likewise led to improvements in those areas, while at higher levels of urbanization, increases in urbanization exacerbated poverty and rural-urban gaps.

  3. Predictive Modelling of Heavy Metals in Urban Lakes

    OpenAIRE

    Lindström, Martin

    2000-01-01

    Heavy metals are well-known environmental pollutants. In this thesis predictive models for heavy metals in urban lakes are discussed and new models presented. The base of predictive modelling is empirical data from field investigations of many ecosystems covering a wide range of ecosystem characteristics. Predictive models focus on the variabilities among lakes and processes controlling the major metal fluxes. Sediment and water data for this study were collected from ten small lakes in the ...

  4. Intercalibration and Gaussian Process Modeling of Nighttime Lights Imagery for Measuring Urbanization Trends in Africa 2000–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J. Savory

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Sub-Saharan Africa currently has the world’s highest urban population growth rate of any continent at roughly 4.2% annually. A better understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization across the continent is important to a range of fields including public health, economics, and environmental sciences. Nighttime lights imagery (NTL, maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, offers a unique vantage point for studying trends in urbanization. A well-documented deficiency of this dataset is the lack of intra- and inter-annual calibration between satellites, which makes the imagery unsuitable for temporal analysis in their raw format. Here we have generated an ‘intercalibrated’ time series of annual NTL images for Africa (2000–2013 by building on the widely used invariant region and quadratic regression method (IRQR. Gaussian process methods (GP were used to identify NTL latent functions independent from the temporal noise signals in the annual datasets. The corrected time series was used to explore the positive association of NTL with Gross Domestic Product (GDP and urban population (UP. Additionally, the proportion of change in ‘lit area’ occurring in urban areas was measured by defining urban agglomerations as contiguously lit pixels of >250 km2, with all other pixels being rural. For validation, the IRQR and GP time series were compared as predictors of the invariant region dataset. Root mean square error values for the GP smoothed dataset were substantially lower. Correlation of NTL with GDP and UP using GP smoothing showed significant increases in R2 over the IRQR method on both continental and national scales. Urban growth results suggested that the majority of growth in lit pixels between 2000 and 2013 occurred in rural areas. With this study, we demonstrated the effectiveness of GP to improve conventional intercalibration, used NTL to describe temporal patterns of urbanization in Africa, and

  5. Rethinking Design and Urban Planning for the Cities of the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas L. Saaty

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Growth of urban areas and abandonment of rural areas are phenomena that increase quickly. The main consequences of urbanization are pollution, consumption of resources and energy, waste dumps, and junk yards. These aspects require a better planning and design of European urban metropolitan areas, considering benefits, opportunities, costs and risks (B.O.C.R., derivable by urban transformations and available resources. The paper consists of five parts. The first part contains some reflections on consequences of urban sprawl. In the second part, some possible kinds of cities are discussed (sustainable city, smart city, and compact city. The third part briefly describes a multicriteria decision-making approach known as the ‘analytic hierarchy process’ to deal with complex decisions. In the fourth part, alternative city models are analyzed (compact city, elevated city, green house city, and water city. Finally, in the fifth part, the criteria selected for the planning and design of the alternative city models are used for the prioritization of some European cities.

  6. Impacts of Detailed Land-Use Types and Urban Heat in an Urban Canopy Model on Local Meteorology and Ozone Levels for Air Quality Modeling in a Coastal City, Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon-Hee Kang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An urban canopy model (UCM, with detailed urban land-use and anthropogenic heat information, is required to reproduce and understand the urbanization process and its impact on regional climate and urban air quality. This study investigates the UCM impact on simulated meteorology and surface ozone in the coastal city of Busan using the WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ model coupled with (UCM case, and without the UCM (NOUCM case. The UCM and NOUCM case results suggest that UCM case generally produces warmer temperatures and deeper planetary boundary layer (PBL heights, especially in the early morning and night time, than the NOUCM case. Owing to urban heating and enhanced turbulent mixing incorporation in the center of the city, the sea breeze in the UCM case tends to penetrate faster and more strongly than in the NOUCM case. After sea breeze arrival at the urban center, the urban heat island effect prevents its penetration further inland. In the UCM case in the late afternoon, local meteorological changes induce remarkable increases in simulated O3 concentrations over the downwind (up to 17.1 ppb and downtown (up to 10.6 ppb areas. This is probably due to an increase in temperature in the urban areas and the wind convergence zone movement due to the sea breeze interaction and offshore flows. The increase in O3 concentration in the late afternoon results in the model bias reduction under previously underestimated O3 conditions due to high NOx emissions. The simulated O3 concentrations in the UCM case are more similar to the observed O3 concentrations compared to those of the NOUCM case.

  7. Traffic noise in shielded urban areas: comparison of experimental data with model results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Randrianoelina, A.; Salomons, E.M.

    2008-01-01

    Noise maps of cities are commonly produced with rather simple engineering models for sound propagation. These models may be inaccurate in complex urban situations, in particular in situations with street canyons. Street canyons are urban areas that are partly or completely enclosed by buildings, for

  8. Stochastic models for tumoral growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escudero, Carlos

    2006-02-01

    Strong experimental evidence has indicated that tumor growth belongs to the molecular beam epitaxy universality class. This type of growth is characterized by the constraint of cell proliferation to the tumor border and the surface diffusion of cells at the growing edge. Tumor growth is thus conceived as a competition for space between the tumor and the host, and cell diffusion at the tumor border is an optimal strategy adopted for minimizing the pressure and helping tumor development. Two stochastic partial differential equations are reported in this paper in order to correctly model the physical properties of tumoral growth in (1+1) and (2+1) dimensions. The advantage of these models is that they reproduce the correct geometry of the tumor and are defined in terms of polar variables. An analysis of these models allows us to quantitatively estimate the response of the tumor to an unfavorable perturbation during growth.

  9. Third-world development: urbanizing for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcilwaine, C

    1997-01-01

    This article reviews some issues reflected in the 1996 UN Habitat II agenda and recent research on urbanization. The themes of the 1996 Habitat conference were urban development, urban poverty, and governance, civil society, and social capital. It is expected that over 50% of total world population will live in cities in the year 2000. Cities are viewed both as engines of economic growth and centers of severe economic, environmental, and social problems. There is some disagreement about whether cities are rational economic structures or what the World Bank's urban agenda is and its relationship with macroeconomic policy. Discussions of global urban issues are criticized for their neglect of issues of equity and poverty, cultural diversity, and identity and representation. Habitat II also stressed urban sustainability. There is growing recognition that urban management involves more than the "Brown Agenda" of environmental and physical aspects of urban growth. Recent studies identify how politics and power affect people's access to basic urban services. Urban economic activity can also contribute to environmental problems. Urban growth affects the provision of health services. Although there is not a consensus on the role of cities in expanding economic and social development and the best management practices, there is sufficient evidence to indicate that urban processes are varied throughout the developing world. The links between urban and rural areas differentiate cities and expose the need to understand the role of intermediate urban areas surrounding and between larger cities. Poverty has become increasingly urbanized, but the extent of poverty is unknown. Habitat II was an unprecedented effort to engage nongovernment groups, local government staff, trade unions, and the private sector and to emphasize community participation. Networks of trust and reciprocity are key to solving poverty, inequality, and disempowerment problems.

  10. Latent Growth and Dynamic Structural Equation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin J; Ram, Nilam

    2018-05-07

    Latent growth models make up a class of methods to study within-person change-how it progresses, how it differs across individuals, what are its determinants, and what are its consequences. Latent growth methods have been applied in many domains to examine average and differential responses to interventions and treatments. In this review, we introduce the growth modeling approach to studying change by presenting different models of change and interpretations of their model parameters. We then apply these methods to examining sex differences in the development of binge drinking behavior through adolescence and into adulthood. Advances in growth modeling methods are then discussed and include inherently nonlinear growth models, derivative specification of growth models, and latent change score models to study stochastic change processes. We conclude with relevant design issues of longitudinal studies and considerations for the analysis of longitudinal data.

  11. Integration of Multiple Unmanned Systems in an Urban Search and Rescue Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    urban population is increasing four times as fast as its rural population, and it is undergoing the largest wave of urban growth in history . By 2030...cmd” then press “Enter.” Type ipconfig and check the IPv4 Address. Enter the specific URI into the model in the URI entry as shown in the picture...Enter.” Type ipconfig and check the IPv4 Address. Enter the specific URI into the model in the URI entry as shown in the picture above. (Ensure

  12. Motorways in Metropolitan Areas: The Northwestern Growth of Florence and the Urban Use of Motorway A1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerio Cutini

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The recent urban growth of Florence was mainly oriented northward, thus determining the urbanization of the flatland and the inclusion within a unique conurbation of a number of pre-existing urban nuclei. Over time, the congestion of the inner core has caused more and more prominent activities to shift towards this developing area, which is today one of the most attractive parts of the whole settlement, counterbalancing the representativeness and the touristic attractiveness of the historic center of Florence. This paper is concerned with the use of space syntax in order to reconstruct the genesis of the configurational geography of Florence. Configurational values at different dates will be cross-referenced with vehicular traffic data, so as to pinpoint the actual inclusion of the motorway A1, touching Florence on its western side, within the urban grid of Florence and its influence in the distribution of local traffic flows. Aside from this case study, this method can be extended to the general issue of the management of motorways in metropolitan areas. More in general, this approach is proposed as a suitable tool for interconnecting spatial issues and traffic questions, so as to concur in bridging the gap between urban design, focused on the morphologic features of blocks and buildings, and transport analysis, strictly concerned with the distribution of movement flows on the street network.

  13. Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

    2018-06-01

    Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons

  14. Urban Morphology Influence on Urban Albedo: A Revisit with the S olene Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groleau, Dominique; Mestayer, Patrice G.

    2013-05-01

    This heuristic study of the urban morphology influence on urban albedo is based on some 3,500 simulations with the S olene model. The studied configurations include square blocks in regular and staggered rows, rectangular blocks with different street widths, cross-shaped blocks, infinite street canyons and several actual districts in Marseilles, Toulouse and Nantes, France. The scanned variables are plan density, facade density, building height, layout orientation, latitude, date and time of the day. The sky-view factors of the ground and canopy surfaces are also considered. This study demonstrates the significance of the facade density, in addition to the built plan density, as the explanatory geometrical factor to characterize the urban morphology, rather than building height. On the basis of these albedo calculations the puzzling results of Kondo et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 100:225-242, 2001) for the influence of building height are explained, and the plan density influence is quantitatively assessed. It is shown that the albedo relationship with plan and facade densities obtained with the regular square plot configuration may be considered as a reference for all other configurations, with the exception of the infinite street canyon that shows systematic differences for the lower plan densities. The curves representing this empirical relationship may be used as a sort of abacus for all other geometries while an approximate simple mathematical model is proposed, as well as relationships between the albedo and sky-view factors.

  15. Parameterization of a Hydrological Model for a Large, Ungauged Urban Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald Krebs

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization leads to the replacement of natural areas by impervious surfaces and affects the catchment hydrological cycle with adverse environmental impacts. Low impact development tools (LID that mimic hydrological processes of natural areas have been developed and applied to mitigate these impacts. Hydrological simulations are one possibility to evaluate the LID performance but the associated small-scale processes require a highly spatially distributed and explicit modeling approach. However, detailed data for model development are often not available for large urban areas, hampering the model parameterization. In this paper we propose a methodology to parameterize a hydrological model to a large, ungauged urban area by maintaining at the same time a detailed surface discretization for direct parameter manipulation for LID simulation and a firm reliance on available data for model conceptualization. Catchment delineation was based on a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM and model parameterization relied on a novel model regionalization approach. The impact of automated delineation and model regionalization on simulation results was evaluated for three monitored study catchments (5.87–12.59 ha. The simulated runoff peak was most sensitive to accurate catchment discretization and calibration, while both the runoff volume and the fit of the hydrograph were less affected.

  16. A new methodology for modelling of health risk from urban flooding exemplified by cholera

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mark, Ole; Jørgensen, Claus; Hammond, Michael

    2016-01-01

    outlines a novel methodology for linking dynamic urban flood modelling with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This provides a unique possibility for understanding the interaction between urban flooding and health risk caused by direct human contact with the flood water and hence gives...... and mortality, especially during floods. At present, there are no software tools capable of combining hydrodynamic modelling and health risk analyses, and the links between urban flooding and the health risk for the population due to direct contact with the flood water are poorly understood. The present paper...... an option for reducing the burden of disease in the population by use of intelligent urban flood risk management. The model linking urban flooding and health risk is applied to Dhaka City in Bangladesh, where waterborne diseases including cholera are endemic. The application to Dhaka City is supported...

  17. High-Resolution Urban Greenery Mapping for Micro-Climate Modelling Based on 3d City Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofierka, J.; Gallay, M.; Kaňuk, J.; Šupinský, J.; Šašak, J.

    2017-10-01

    Urban greenery has various positive micro-climate effects including mitigation of heat islands. The primary root of heat islands in cities is in absorption of solar radiation by the mass of building structures, roads and other solid materials. The absorbed heat is subsequently re-radiated into the surroundings and increases ambient temperatures. The vegetation can stop and absorb most of incoming solar radiation mostly via the photosynthesis and evapotranspiration process. However, vegetation in mild climate of Europe manifests considerable annual seasonality which can also contribute to the seasonal change in the cooling effect of the vegetation on the urban climate. Modern methods of high-resolution mapping and new generations of sensors have brought opportunity to record the dynamics of urban greenery in a high resolution in spatial, spectral, and temporal domains. In this paper, we use the case study of the city of Košice in Eastern Slovakia to demonstrate the methodology of 3D mapping and modelling the urban greenery during one vegetation season in 2016. The purpose of this monitoring is to capture 3D effects of urban greenery on spatial distribution of solar radiation in urban environment. Terrestrial laser scanning was conducted on four selected sites within Košice in ultra-high spatial resolution. The entire study area, which included these four smaller sites, comprised 4 km2 of the central part of the city was flown within a single airborne lidar and photogrammetric mission to capture the upper parts of buildings and vegetation. The acquired airborne data were used to generate a 3D city model and the time series of terrestrial lidar data were integrated with the 3D city model. The results show that the terrestrial and airborne laser scanning techniques can be effectively used to monitor seasonal changes in foliage of trees in order to assess the transmissivity of the canopy for microclimate modelling.

  18. A Culturally Responsive Practice Model for Urban Indian Child Welfare Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindell, Robert; Vidal de Haymes, Maria; Francisco, Dale

    2003-01-01

    Describes a collaboration among a university, a state child welfare agency, and a Native American community organization to develop a culturally driven practice model for urban, Native American child welfare. Identifies challenges and opportunities in addressing the needs of urban Native American communities. Concludes with principles for…

  19. Testing mechanistic models of growth in insects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maino, James L; Kearney, Michael R

    2015-11-22

    Insects are typified by their small size, large numbers, impressive reproductive output and rapid growth. However, insect growth is not simply rapid; rather, insects follow a qualitatively distinct trajectory to many other animals. Here we present a mechanistic growth model for insects and show that increasing specific assimilation during the growth phase can explain the near-exponential growth trajectory of insects. The presented model is tested against growth data on 50 insects, and compared against other mechanistic growth models. Unlike the other mechanistic models, our growth model predicts energy reserves per biomass to increase with age, which implies a higher production efficiency and energy density of biomass in later instars. These predictions are tested against data compiled from the literature whereby it is confirmed that insects increase their production efficiency (by 24 percentage points) and energy density (by 4 J mg(-1)) between hatching and the attainment of full size. The model suggests that insects achieve greater production efficiencies and enhanced growth rates by increasing specific assimilation and increasing energy reserves per biomass, which are less costly to maintain than structural biomass. Our findings illustrate how the explanatory and predictive power of mechanistic growth models comes from their grounding in underlying biological processes. © 2015 The Author(s).

  20. Modeling the resilience of urban water supply using the capital portfolio approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, E. H.; Klammler, H.; Borchardt, D.; Frank, K.; Jawitz, J. W.; Rao, P. S.

    2017-12-01

    The dynamics of global change challenge the resilience of cities in a multitude of ways, including pressures resulting from population and consumption changes, production patterns, climate and landuse change, as well as environmental hazards. Responses to these challenges aim to improve urban resilience, but lack an adequate understanding of 1) the elements and processes that lead to the resilience of coupled natural-human-engineered systems, 2) the complex dynamics emerging from the interaction of these elements, including the availability of natural resources, infrastructure, and social capital, which may lead to 3) unintended consequences resulting from management responses. We propose a new model that simulates the coupled dynamics of five types of capitals (water resources, infrastructure, finances, political capital /management, and social adaptive capacity) that are necessary for the provision of water supply to urban residents. We parameterize the model based on data for a case study city, which is limited by constraints in water availability, financial resources, and faced with degrading infrastructure, as well as population increase, which challenge the urban management institutions. Our model analyzes the stability of the coupled system, and produces time series of the capital dynamics to quantify its resilience as a result of the portfolio of capitals available to usher adaptive capacity and to secure water supply subjected to multiple recurring shocks. We apply our model to one real urban water supply system located in an arid environment, as well as a wide range of hypothetical case studies, which demonstrates its applicability to various types of cities, and its ability to quantify and compare water supply resilience. The analysis of a range of urban water systems provides valuable insights into guiding more sustainable responses for maintaining the resilience of urban water supply around the globe, by showing how unsustainable responses risk the

  1. Model architecture of intelligent data mining oriented urban transportation information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bogang; Tao, Yingchun; Sui, Jianbo; Zhang, Feizhou

    2007-06-01

    Aiming at solving practical problems in urban traffic, the paper presents model architecture of intelligent data mining from hierarchical view. With artificial intelligent technologies used in the framework, the intelligent data mining technology improves, which is more suitable for the change of real-time road condition. It also provides efficient technology support for the urban transport information distribution, transmission and display.

  2. Using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline and Artificial Neural Network to Simulate Urbanization in Mumbai, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadlou, M.; Delavar, M. R.; Tayyebi, A.; Shafizadeh-Moghadam, H.

    2015-12-01

    Land use change (LUC) models used for modelling urban growth are different in structure and performance. Local models divide the data into separate subsets and fit distinct models on each of the subsets. Non-parametric models are data driven and usually do not have a fixed model structure or model structure is unknown before the modelling process. On the other hand, global models perform modelling using all the available data. In addition, parametric models have a fixed structure before the modelling process and they are model driven. Since few studies have compared local non-parametric models with global parametric models, this study compares a local non-parametric model called multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), and a global parametric model called artificial neural network (ANN) to simulate urbanization in Mumbai, India. Both models determine the relationship between a dependent variable and multiple independent variables. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) to compare the power of the both models for simulating urbanization. Landsat images of 1991 (TM) and 2010 (ETM+) were used for modelling the urbanization process. The drivers considered for urbanization in this area were distance to urban areas, urban density, distance to roads, distance to water, distance to forest, distance to railway, distance to central business district, number of agricultural cells in a 7 by 7 neighbourhoods, and slope in 1991. The results showed that the area under the ROC curve for MARS and ANN was 94.77% and 95.36%, respectively. Thus, ANN performed slightly better than MARS to simulate urban areas in Mumbai, India.

  3. A model for radiological dose assessment in an urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Won Tae; Kim, Eun Han; Jeong, Hyo Joon; Suh, Kyung Suk; Han, Moon Hee

    2007-01-01

    A model for radiological dose assessment in an urban environment, METRO-K has been developed. Characteristics of the model are as follows ; 1) mathematical structures are simple (i.e. simplified input parameters) and easy to understand due to get the results by analytical methods using experimental and empirical data, 2) complex urban environment can easily be made up using only 5 types of basic surfaces, 3) various remediation measures can be applied to different surfaces by evaluating the exposure doses contributing from each contamination surface. Exposure doses contributing from each contamination surface at a particular location of a receptor were evaluated using the data library of kerma values as a function of gamma energy and contamination surface. A kerma data library was prepared for 7 representative types of Korean urban building by extending those data given for 4 representative types of European urban buildings. Initial input data are daily radionuclide concentration in air and precipitation, and fraction of chemical type. Final outputs are absorbed dose rate in air contributing from the basic surfaces as a function of time following a radionuclide deposition, and exposure dose rate contributing from various surfaces constituting the urban environment at a particular location of a receptor. As the result of a contaminative scenario for an apartment built-up area, exposure dose rates show a distinct difference for surrounding environment as well as locations of a receptor

  4. Integration of Neural Networks and Cellular Automata for Urban Planning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Anthony Gar-on Yeh; LI Xia

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a new type of cellular automata (CA) model for the simulation of alternative land development using neural networks for urban planning. CA models can be regarded as a planning tool because they can generate alternative urban growth. Alternative development patterns can be formed by using different sets of parameter values in CA simulation. A critical issue is how to define parameter values for realistic and idealized simulation. This paper demonstrates that neural networks can simplify CA models but generate more plausible results. The simulation is based on a simple three-layer network with an output neuron to generate conversion probability. No transition rules are required for the simulation. Parameter values are automatically obtained from the training of network by using satellite remote sensing data. Original training data can be assessed and modified according to planning objectives. Alternative urban patterns can be easily formulated by using the modified training data sets rather than changing the model.

  5. iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

    2011-01-01

    This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

  6. Optimal urban water conservation strategies considering embedded energy: coupling end-use and utility water-energy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escriva-Bou, A.; Lund, J. R.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Spang, E. S.; Loge, F. J.

    2014-12-01

    Although most freshwater resources are used in agriculture, a greater amount of energy is consumed per unit of water supply for urban areas. Therefore, efforts to reduce the carbon footprint of water in cities, including the energy embedded within household uses, can be an order of magnitude larger than for other water uses. This characteristic of urban water systems creates a promising opportunity to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, particularly given rapidly growing urbanization worldwide. Based on a previous Water-Energy-CO2 emissions model for household water end uses, this research introduces a probabilistic two-stage optimization model considering technical and behavioral decision variables to obtain the most economical strategies to minimize household water and water-related energy bills given both water and energy price shocks. Results show that adoption rates to reduce energy intensive appliances increase significantly, resulting in an overall 20% growth in indoor water conservation if household dwellers include the energy cost of their water use. To analyze the consequences on a utility-scale, we develop an hourly water-energy model based on data from East Bay Municipal Utility District in California, including the residential consumption, obtaining that water end uses accounts for roughly 90% of total water-related energy, but the 10% that is managed by the utility is worth over 12 million annually. Once the entire end-use + utility model is completed, several demand-side management conservation strategies were simulated for the city of San Ramon. In this smaller water district, roughly 5% of total EBMUD water use, we found that the optimal household strategies can reduce total GHG emissions by 4% and utility's energy cost over 70,000/yr. Especially interesting from the utility perspective could be the "smoothing" of water use peaks by avoiding daytime irrigation that among other benefits might reduce utility energy costs by 0.5% according to our

  7. Urban flood risk warning under rapid urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yangbo; Zhou, Haolan; Zhang, Hui; Du, Guoming; Zhou, Jinhui

    2015-05-01

    In the past decades, China has observed rapid urbanization, the nation's urban population reached 50% in 2000, and is still in steady increase. Rapid urbanization in China has an adverse impact on urban hydrological processes, particularly in increasing the urban flood risks and causing serious urban flooding losses. Urban flooding also increases health risks such as causing epidemic disease break out, polluting drinking water and damaging the living environment. In the highly urbanized area, non-engineering measurement is the main way for managing urban flood risk, such as flood risk warning. There is no mature method and pilot study for urban flood risk warning, the purpose of this study is to propose the urban flood risk warning method for the rapidly urbanized Chinese cities. This paper first presented an urban flood forecasting model, which produces urban flood inundation index for urban flood risk warning. The model has 5 modules. The drainage system and grid dividing module divides the whole city terrain into drainage systems according to its first-order river system, and delineates the drainage system into grids based on the spatial structure with irregular gridding technique; the precipitation assimilation module assimilates precipitation for every grids which is used as the model input, which could either be the radar based precipitation estimation or interpolated one from rain gauges; runoff production module classifies the surface into pervious and impervious surface, and employs different methods to calculate the runoff respectively; surface runoff routing module routes the surface runoff and determines the inundation index. The routing on surface grid is calculated according to the two dimensional shallow water unsteady flow algorithm, the routing on land channel and special channel is calculated according to the one dimensional unsteady flow algorithm. This paper then proposed the urban flood risk warning method that is called DPSIR model based

  8. Cities as selective land predators? A lesson on urban growth, deregulated planning and sprawl containment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colantoni, Andrea; Grigoriadis, Efstathios; Sateriano, Adele; Venanzoni, Giuseppe; Salvati, Luca

    2016-03-01

    The present study investigates changes in the use of land caused by the expansion of an informal city in the Mediterranean region (Athens, Greece) and it proposes a simplified methodology to assess selective land take at the scale of municipalities. The amount of land take over twenty years (1987-2007) for cropland, sparsely vegetated areas and natural land was compared with the surface area of the respective class at the beginning of the study period (1987). Indicators of selective land take by class were correlated with socioeconomic indicators at the scale of municipalities to verify the influence of the local context and the impact of urban planning on land take processes. Evidence indicates that urban expansion into fringe land consumes primarily cropland and sparse vegetation in the case of the Athens' metropolitan region. Cropland and sparse vegetation were consumed proportionally more than the respective availability in 16 municipalities out of 60. Agricultural land take was positively correlated with population density and growth rate, rate of participation to the job market and road density. Sparse vegetation land take was observed in municipalities with predominance of high density settlements. As a result of second-home expansion in coastal municipalities, natural land was converted to urban use in proportion to the availability in the landscape. Urban planning seems to have a limited impact on selective land take. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. EXPURT - a model for evaluating exposure from radioactive material deposited in the urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crick, M.J.; Brown, J.

    1990-06-01

    This model, EXPURT (EXPosure from Urban Radionuclide Transfer), is described in detail. The model simulates the movement of activity deposited on various surfaces in the urban environment and, by taking into account the shielding properties of buildings and the habits of the population, evaluates the external doses to members of the population living in such urban environments, as a function of time after deposition. One of the other advantages of EXPURT over simpler models is that it can be used to assess the possible dose reductions that might be achieved by various decontamination techniques; for example, it can estimate the effectiveness of decontaminating roof surfaces alone in reducing exposure to individuals living in an urban environment. Sensitivity/uncertainty studies have been performed whereby those parameters contributing most to remaining uncertainty in the model's predictions of dose and dose rates were identified. Predictions of the EXPURT model were compared with those from a simpler external dose model in use at NRPB. (author)

  10. Gainesville's urban forest canopy cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco Escobedo; Jennifer A. Seitz; Wayne Zipperer

    2009-01-01

    Ecosystem benefits from trees are linked directly to the amount of healthy urban forest canopy cover. Urban forest cover is dynamic and changes over time due to factors such as urban development, windstorms, tree removals, and growth. The amount of a city's canopy cover depends on its land use, climate, and people's preferences. This fact sheet examines how...

  11. Urbanization and human rights

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mihr, A.

    Urban governance on the basis of human rights can help to set up problem solving mechanisms to guarantee social peace, economic growth and political participation.If states both integrate more in international or regional human rights regime and give more autonomy to urban governments and local

  12. Urbanization in Turkey. An International Urbanization Survey Report to the Ford Foundation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keles, Rusen

    Urbanization is sometimes defined as a process of population concentration that requires both growth in the size of cities and multiplication of their numbers. This demographic approach seems to neglect two other important aspects of urbanization: namely, economic and social. The economic dimension consists of structural change in the productive…

  13. Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

    2015-12-01

    This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities.

  14. Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities. PMID:26958606

  15. [Urban construction, professions, and immigration at the origin of urban studies in Venezuela, 1870-1957].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin Frechilla, J J

    1996-01-01

    The individuals and circumstances involved in the creation of the first graduate urban studies program in Venezuela are recalled, beginning with the odernization of Caracas under the impulse of President Antonio Guzman Blanco, elected in 1870. Guzman Blanco converted himself into Venezuela's first urbanist with the establishment of organizational frameworks and completion of massive public works projects, which were based largely on the urban models of the US and Europe. Engineering and public health were consolidated as the two most influential sources of professional competence for guiding urban development. By the mid-1930s, growth fueled by petroleum revenues was causing rapid urbanization, and it became apparent that trained professionals able to manage the increasingly complex tasks of urban planning were in short supply. A new surge of modernizing construction began in 1936 and led to a cooperative arrangement with a French firm, whose personnel were to be required to train Venezuelan engineers for future service in urban planning. An influx of refugees from the Spanish Civil War and the increasing influence of urban planning processes in the US were also observed. The National Commission on Urbanism was created in 1946 as a dependency of the Ministry of Planning to facilitate public administration of the development and control of cities. Throughout the period, a debate was underway on the need for a multidisciplinary approach to urban planning versus a primarily architectural or engineering approach. In 1957, some consensus was reached on the need for urban planning to be viewed as more than a speciality of architecture. A framework was developed for a graduate program in 1969 in the Central University of Venezuela. The National Commission on Urbanism was disbanded in 1957, largely because of its excessive focus on architecture to the exclusion of other disciplines relevant to the urbanization process.

  16. COMMUNICATION MODEL IN SOCIALIZING OF URBAN FARMING “KAMPUNG BERKEBUN” INNOVATION PROGRAM IN BANDUNG CITY (MODEL KOMUNIKASI DALAM MEMASYARAKATKAN PROGRAM INOVASI URBAN FARMING “KAMPUNG BERKEBUN” DI KOTA BANDUNG PROPINSI JAWA BARAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henny Sri Mulyani R

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available An innovation promoted by the government of the city of Bandung in 2014 that urban gardening activities by utilizing their yards, vacant land, alley, dak  and the other, better known as Urban Farming. This activity was intended for residents of the city of Bandung with the hope of meeting the food needs of the household and supporting urban green open space. The purpose of this study was to determine the model of communication used by the Department of Agriculture and Food Security in the dissemination of innovation Urban Farming "Kampung Berkebun" in Bandung. This was accomplished through qualitative description methods of data collection and analysis using some observations, personal interviews and textual analysis. The results showed that the program of promoting Urban Farming "Kampung Berkebun" consists of two activities, namely the first event, to be disseminated to the subdistrict and village heads as the city of Bandung which is held at the Department of Agriculture and Food Security in Bandung, and the second activity is to provide training to the residents in the village location. Bandung has 34 districts and 151 villages. Training was conducted at each site include a village with a maximum of 50 people of the village residents. Deployment of innovative communication model Urban Farming "Kampung Berkebun" in the form of a model that is both mechanistic and interactional namely communication model David K Berlo (1960 and Schramm communication model (1954.   Sebuah inovasi  dimasyarakatkan oleh pemerintahan Kota Bandung mulai tahun 2014 yaitu kegiatan berkebun diperkotaan dengan memanfaatkan lahan pekarangan, lahan tidur, gang, dak  dan yang lainnya   lebih dikenal dengan sebutan  Urban Farming. Kegiatan ini diperuntukan bagi   warga Kota Bandung dengan harapan dapat memenuhi kebutuhan pangan dalam skala rumah tangga dan menunjang ruang terbuka hijau perkotaan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui model komunikasi yang

  17. The impact of urbanization during half a century on surface meteorology based on WRF model simulations over National Capital Region, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sati, Ankur Prabhat; Mohan, Manju

    2017-10-01

    An estimated 50% of the global population lives in the urban areas, and this percentage is projected to reach around 69% by the year 2050 (World Urbanization Prospects 2009). There is a considerable growth of urban and built-up area during the recent decades over National Capital Region (NCR) of India (17-fold increase in the urban extent). The proposed study estimates the land use land cover changes particularly changes to urban class from other land use types such as croplands, shrubland, open areas, and water bodies and quantify these changes for a span of about five decades. Further, the impact of these land use/land cover changes is examined on spatial and temporal variations of meteorological parameters using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model. The urbanized areas appear to be one of the regions with highest changes in the values of the fluxes and temperatures where during daytime, the surface sensible heat flux values show a noticeable increase of 60-70 W m-2 which commensurate with increase in urbanization. Similarly, the nighttime LST and T2m show an increase of 3-5 and 2-3 K, respectively. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) of LST and surface temperature also shows a decrease of about 5 and 2-3 K, respectively, with increasing urbanization. Significant decrease in the magnitude of surface winds and relative humidity is also observed over the areas converted to urban form over a period of half a century. The impacts shown here have serious implications on human health, energy consumption, ventilation, and atmospheric pollution.

  18. Analysis and Modeling of Urban Land Cover Change in Setúbal and Sesimbra, Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yikalo H. Araya

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of cities entails the abandonment of forest and agricultural lands, and these lands’ conversion into urban areas, which results in substantial impacts on ecosystems. Monitoring these changes and planning urban development can be successfully achieved using multitemporal remotely sensed data, spatial metrics, and modeling. In this paper, urban land use change analysis and modeling was carried out for the Concelhos of Setúbal and Sesimbra in Portugal. An existing land cover map for the year 1990, together with two derived land cover maps from multispectral satellite images for the years 2000 and 2006, were utilized using an object-oriented classification approach. Classification accuracy assessment revealed satisfactory results that fulfilled minimum standard accuracy levels. Urban land use dynamics, in terms of both patterns and quantities, were studied using selected landscape metrics and the Shannon Entropy index. Results show that urban areas increased by 91.11% between 1990 and 2006. In contrast, the change was only 6.34% between 2000 and 2006. The entropy value was 0.73 for both municipalities in 1990, indicating a high rate of urban sprawl in the area. In 2006, this value, for both Sesimbra and Setúbal, reached almost 0.90. This is demonstrative of a tendency toward intensive urban sprawl. Urban land use change for the year 2020 was modeled using a Cellular Automata based approach. The predictive power of the model was successfully validated using Kappa variations. Projected land cover changes show a growing tendency in urban land use, which might threaten areas that are currently reserved for natural parks and agricultural lands.

  19. Constructing spatialised knowledge on urban poverty : (multiple) dimensions, mapping spaces and claim-making in urban governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baud, I.; Lemanski, C.; Marx, C.

    2015-01-01

    Recently, increasing attention is given to poverty issues in urban areas in the Global South. This follows recognition that population growth is shifting to urban areas, as more than half the world population is found in urban areas, which are expected to grow mainly in South Asia and sub-Saharan

  20. Using Open data in analyzing urban growth: urban density and change detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    murgante, Beniamino; Nolè, Gabriele; Lasaponara, Rosa; Lanorte, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    In recent years a great attention has been paid to the evolution and the use of spatial data. Internet technologies accelerated such a process, allowing more direct access to spatial information. It is estimated that more than 600 million people have been connected to the Internet at least once to display maps on the web. Consequently, there is an irreversible process which considers geographical dimension as a fundamental attribute for the management of information flows. Furthermore, the great activity produced by open data movement leads to an easier and clearer access to geospatial information. This trend concerns, in a less evident way, also satellite data, which are increasingly accessible through the web. Spatial planning, geography and other regional sciences find it difficult to build knowledge related to spatial transformation. These problems can be significantly reduced due to a large data availability, producing significant opportunities to capture knowledge useful for a better territorial governance. This study has been developed in a heavily anthropized area in southern Italy, Apulia region, using free spatial data and free multispectral and multitemporal satellite data (Apulia region was one of the first regions in Italy to adopt open data policies). The analysis concerns urban growth, which, in recent decades, showed a rapid increase. In a first step the evolution in time and change detection of urban areas has been analyzed paying particular attention to soil consumption. In the second step Kernel Density has been adopted in order to assess development pressures. KDE (Kernel Density Estimation) function is a technique that provides the density of a phenomenon based on point data. A mobile three dimensional surface has been produced from a set of points distributed over a region of space, which weighs the events within its sphere of influence, depending on their distance from the point from which intensity is estimated. It produces, considering as