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Sample records for unnecessarily cautious risk

  1. Assessment of disaster preparedness among emergency departments in Italian hospitals: a cautious warning for disaster risk reduction and management capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paganini, Matteo; Borrelli, Francesco; Cattani, Jonathan; Ragazzoni, Luca; Djalali, Ahmadreza; Carenzo, Luca; Della Corte, Francesco; Burkle, Frederick M Jr; Ingrassia, Pier Luigi

    2016-08-15

    Since the 1990s, Italian hospitals are required to comply with emergency disaster plans known as Emergency Plan for Massive Influx of Casualties. While various studies reveal that hospitals overall suffer from an insufficient preparedness level, the aim of this study was to better determine the preparedness level of Emergency Departments of Italian hospitals by assessing the knowledge-base of emergency physicians regarding basic disaster planning and procedures. A prospective observational study utilized a convenience sample of Italian Emergency Departments identified from the Italian Ministry of Health website. Anonymous telephone interviews were conducted of medical consultants in charge at the time in the respective Emergency Departments, and were structured in 3 parts: (1) general data and demographics, (2) the current disaster plan and (3) protocols and actions of the disaster plan. Eighty-five Emergency Departments met inclusion criteria, and 69 (81 %) agreed to undergo the interview. Only 45 % of participants declared to know what an Emergency Plan for Massive Influx of Casualties is, 41 % believed to know who has the authority to activate the plan, 38 % knew who is in charge of intra-hospital operations. In Part 3 physicians revealed a worrisome inconsistency in critical content knowledge of their answers. Results demonstrate a poor knowledge-base of basic hospital disaster planning concepts by Italian Emergency Department physicians-on-duty. These findings should alert authorities to enhance staff disaster preparedness education, training and follow-up to ensure that these plans are known to all who have responsibility for disaster risk reduction and management capacity.

  2. 38 CFR 17.100 - Refusal of treatment by unnecessarily breaking appointments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... and satisfactory reasons are advanced for breaking the appointment and circumstances were such that... unnecessarily breaking appointments. 17.100 Section 17.100 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS MEDICAL Breaking Appointments § 17.100 Refusal of treatment by unnecessarily breaking...

  3. CAUTIOUS PRACTICE IN ACCOUNTANCY CREDIT UNITS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riana Iren RADU

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The constitution of the specific risk prevision refers to their creation and is realized including in the cost the sum representing the level of the necessary specific risk provisions, in case there is no provision. The constitutions, regulation and the utilization of specific risk provisions will be realized using the credit currency and/or the investments they correct. Specific risk provisions are to be determined only for the client’s balance sheet engagements. The calculation for the necessary volume of provisions is realized for each and every credit contract referring to the final client classification category.

  4. GCK-MODY in the US National Monogenic Diabetes Registry: frequently misdiagnosed and unnecessarily treated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmody, David; Naylor, Rochelle N; Bell, Charles D; Berry, Shivani; Montgomery, Jazzmyne T; Tadie, Elizabeth C; Hwang, Jessica L; Greeley, Siri Atma W; Philipson, Louis H

    2016-10-01

    GCK-MODY leads to mildly elevated blood glucose typically not requiring therapy. It has been described in all ethnicities, but mainly in Caucasian Europeans. Here we describe our US cohort of GCK-MODY. We examined the rates of detection of heterozygous mutations in the GCK gene in individuals referred to the US Monogenic Diabetes Registry with a phenotype consistent with GCK-MODY. We also assessed referral patterns, treatment and demography, including ethnicity, of the cohort. Deleterious heterozygous GCK mutations were found in 54.7 % of Registry probands selected for GCK sequencing for this study. Forty-nine percent were previously unnecessarily treated with glucose-lowering agents, causing hypoglycemia and other adverse effects in some of the subjects. The proportion of probands found to have a GCK mutation through research-based testing was similar across each ethnic group. However, together African-American, Latino and Asian subjects represented only 20.5 % of screened probands and 17.2 % of those with GCK-MODY, despite higher overall diabetes prevalence in these groups. Our data show that a high detection rate of GCK-MODY is possible based on clinical phenotype and that prior to genetic diagnosis, a large percentage are inappropriately treated with glucose-lowering therapies. We also find low minority representation in our Registry, which may be due to disparities in diagnostic diabetes genetic testing and is an area needing further investigation.

  5. Cautious NMPC with Gaussian Process Dynamics for Miniature Race Cars

    OpenAIRE

    Hewing, Lukas; Liniger, Alexander; Zeilinger, Melanie N.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents an adaptive high performance control method for autonomous miniature race cars. Racing dynamics are notoriously hard to model from first principles, which is addressed by means of a cautious nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) approach that learns to improve its dynamics model from data and safely increases racing performance. The approach makes use of a Gaussian Process (GP) and takes residual model uncertainty into account through a chance constrained formulation. ...

  6. Don't Sweat the Small Stuff: Food Allergy Sufferer Lives a Cautious but Normal Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Current Issue Past Issues Home Current issue contents Food allergy sufferer lives a cautious but normal life Follow us Don’t Sweat the Small Stuff Food allergy sufferer lives a cautious but normal life Anthony ...

  7. Older adults adopted more cautious gait patterns when walking in socks than barefoot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Yi-Ju; Lin, Sang-I

    2013-01-01

    Walking barefoot or in socks is common for ambulating indoors and has been reported to be associated with increased risk of falls and related injuries in the elderly. This study sought to determine if gait patterns differed between these two conditions for young and older adults. A motion analysis system was used to record and calculate the stride characteristics and motion of the body's center of mass (COM) of 21 young and 20 older adults. For the walking tasks, the participants walked on a smooth floor surface at their preferred speed either barefoot or in socks in a random order. The socks were commercially available and commonly used. The results demonstrated that while walking in socks, compared with walking barefoot, older adults adopted a more cautious gait pattern including decreased walking speed and shortened stride length as well as reduced COM minimal velocity during the single limb support phase. Young adults, however, did not demonstrate significant changes. These findings suggest that walking with socks might present a greater balance threat for older adults. Clinically, safety precautions about walking in socks should be considered to be given to older adults, especially those with balance deficits. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Public’s Approach to Surrogate Consent for Dementia Research: Cautious Pragmatism

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vries, Raymond; Ryan, Kerry A.; Stanczyk, Aimee; Appelbaum, Paul S.; Damschroder, Laura; Knopman, David S.; Kim, Scott Y. H.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives To describe how members of the older general public deliberate with one another in finding solutions to the dilemma of involving decisionally incapable persons in dementia research. Design, Setting, and Participants 160 persons aged 50+ who participated in an all-day deliberative democracy (DD) session on the ethics of surrogate consent for dementia research. The DD day consisted of both extensive, interactive education with experts in clinical research and ethics, as well as small group deliberations. Measurements Audiotaped small group deliberations were transcribed and analyzed, and the main thematic elements were coded. Results During deliberation, participants acknowledged the limitations of advanced research directives and discussed ways to improve their use. Although there was consensus about the necessity of surrogate consent, the participants recognized potential pitfalls and looked for ways to safeguard the process. Participants supporting surrogate consent for research emphasized societal and individual benefit, the importance of assent, and trust in surrogates and the oversight system. Other participants felt that the high risk of some research scenarios was not sufficiently offset by benefits to patients or society. Conclusions Members of the older general public are able to make use of in-depth education and peer deliberation to provide reasoned and informed opinions on the ethical use of surrogate consent for dementia research. The public’s approach to surrogate consent is one of cautious pragmatism: an overall trust in science and future surrogates with awareness of the potential pitfalls, suggesting that their trust cannot be taken for granted. PMID:23498383

  9. Cautious strategy update promotes cooperation in spatial prisoner’s dilemma game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yongkui; Zhang, Lin; Chen, Xiaojie; Ren, Lei; Wang, Long

    2013-09-01

    In the realistic world, individual cautiousness can be often involved or observed when a rational individual makes a decision. However, it remains unclear how such individual cautiousness influences the evolution of cooperative behavior. To this end, we consider a Fermi strategy updating rule, where each individual is assigned a cautiousness index that controls its learning activity, and then study the evolution of cooperation in the spatial prisoner’s dilemma game. Interestingly, it is found that cooperation can be significantly promoted when individuals’ cautiousness is considered. In particular, there exists an optimal range of the degree of cautiousness resulting in the highest cooperation level. The remarkable promotion of cooperation, as well as the emerging phase transition is explained by configurational analysis. The sensitivity of cooperation to initial states with different fractions of cooperators is also discussed. The result illustrates that high densities of cooperators can be established at small initial fractions of cooperators. The detailed mechanism for such phenomenon is explained by analyzing the typical initial configurations.

  10. On new cautious structural reliability models in the framework of imprecise probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Utkin, Lev; Kozine, Igor

    2010-01-01

    measures when the number of events of interest or observations is very small. The main feature of the models is that prior ignorance is not modelled by a fixed single prior distribution, but by a class of priors which is defined by upper and lower probabilities that can converge as statistical data......New imprecise structural reliability models are described in this paper. They are developed based on the imprecise Bayesian inference and are imprecise Dirichlet, imprecise negative binomial, gamma-exponential and normal models. The models are applied to computing cautious structural reliability...

  11. Sudden transition from equilibrium stability to chaotic dynamics in a cautious tâtonnement model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foroni, I.; Avellone, A.; Panchuk, A.

    2016-01-01

    Discrete time price adjustment processes may fail to converge and may exhibit periodic or even chaotic behavior. To avoid large price changes, a version of the discrete time tâtonnement process for reaching an equilibrium in a pure exchange economy based on a cautious updating of the prices has been proposed two decades ago. This modification leads to a one dimensional bimodal piecewise smooth map, for which we show analytically that degenerate bifurcations and border collision bifurcations play a fundamental role for the asymptotic behavior of the model. (paper)

  12. International Monetary Fund sacrifices higher growth, employment, spending, and public investment in health systems in order to keep inflation unnecessarily low.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowden, Rick

    2010-01-01

    The International Monetary Fund's response to evidence on the impact of its programs on public health fails to address the fundamental criticisms about its policies. The IMF's demand for borrowers to achieve extremely low inflation targets is founded on very little empirical evidence in the peer-reviewed literature. The low-inflation policies privilege international creditors over domestic debtors and short-term priorities over long-term development goals, and contain high social costs, referred to by economists as a "sacrifice ratio." For example, governments' raising of interest rates to bring down inflation undermines the ability of domestic firms to expand production and employment and thus "sacrifices" higher economic growth and higher tax revenues and unnecessarily constrains domestic health spending. During financial crisis, most countries seek to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, the opposite of the IMF's general advice. Perversely, compliance with IMF policies has become a prerequisite for receiving donor aid. Critiques of the IMF express significant concerns that IMF fiscal and monetary policies are unduly restrictive. Health advocates must weigh in on such matters and pressure their finance ministries, particularly in the G7, to take steps at the level of the IMF Executive Board to revisit and modify its policy framework on deficits and inflation. Such reforms are crucial to enable countries to generate more domestic resources while the global health community searches for ways to support strengthening health system capacity.

  13. Cautious Citizenship: The Deterring Effect of Immigration Issue Salience on Health Care Use and Bureaucratic Interactions among Latino US Citizens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedraza, Franciso I; Nichols, Vanessa Cruz; LeBrón, Alana M W

    2017-10-01

    Research shows that health care use among Latino immigrants is adversely affected by restrictive immigration policy. A core concern is that immigrants shy away from sharing personal information in response to policies that expand bureaucratic monitoring of citizenship status across service-providing organizations. This investigation addresses the concern that immigration politics also negatively influences health care utilization among Latino US citizens. One implication is that health insurance expansions may not reduce health care inequities among Latinos due to concern about exposure to immigration law enforcement authorities. Using data from the 2015 Latino National Health and Immigration Survey, we examine the extent to which the politics of immigration deters individuals from going to health care providers and service-providing institutions. Results indicate that Latino US citizens are less likely to make an appointment to see a health care provider when the issue of immigration is mentioned. Additionally, Latino US citizens who know someone who has been deported are more inclined to perceive that information shared with health care providers is not secure. We discuss how cautious citizenship, or risk-avoidance behaviors toward public institutions in order to avoid scrutiny of citizenship status, informs debates about reducing health care inequities. Copyright © 2017 by Duke University Press.

  14. Sudden transition from equilibrium stability to chaotic dynamics in a cautious tâtonnement model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foroni, Ilaria; Avellone, Alessandro; Panchuk, Anastasiia

    2015-01-01

    Tâtonnement processes are usually interpreted as auctions, where a fictitious agent sets the prices until an equilibrium is reached and the trades are made. The main purpose of such processes is to explain how an economy comes to its equilibrium. It is well known that discrete time price adjustment processes may fail to converge and may exhibit periodic or even chaotic behavior. To avoid large price changes, a version of the discrete time tâtonnement process for reaching an equilibrium in a pure exchange economy based on a cautious updating of the prices has been proposed two decades ago. This modification leads to a one dimensional bimodal piecewise smooth map, for which we show analytically that degenerate bifurcations and border collision bifurcations play a fundamental role for the asymptotic behavior of the model.

  15. Cautious caregivers: gender stereotypes and the sexualization of men nurses' touch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Joan A

    2002-11-01

    The aim of this research was to explore the experience of men nurses and the ways in which gender relations structure different work experiences for women and men in the same profession. Men are now entering the nursing profession in record numbers and challenging the notion that men are inappropriate in caregiver roles or incapable of providing compassionate and sensitive care. A limitation of the current state of knowledge regarding caring and men nurses is that it is primarily focused on men nursing students, not practising nurses. Little is known about men nurses' practices of caring and how such practices reflect the gendered nature of nursing and nurses' caring work. The theme of men nurses as cautious caregivers emerged from data that were collected in two rounds of semi-structured interviews with eight men nurses practising in Nova Scotia, Canada. Thematic analysis, informed by feminist theory and masculinity theory, was used as the method for analysing the data. For men nurses, the stereotype of men as sexual aggressors is compounded by the stereotype that men nurses are gay. These stereotypes sexualize men nurses' touch and create complex and contradictory situations of acceptance, rejection and suspicion of men as nurturers and caregivers. They also situate men nurses in highly stigmatized roles in which they are subject to accusations of inappropriate behaviour. For men nurses, this situation is lived as a heightened sense of vulnerability and the continual need to be cautious while touching and caring for patients. Ultimately, this situation impacts on the ability of men nurses to do the caring work they came into nursing to do.

  16. Do Correlates of Pain-Related Stoicism and Cautiousness Differ in Younger and Older People With Advanced Cancer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mah, Kenneth; Tran, Kim T; Gauthier, Lynn R; Rodin, Gary; Zimmermann, Camilla; Warr, David; Librach, S Lawrence; Moore, Malcolm; Shepherd, Frances A; Gagliese, Lucia

    2018-03-01

    Age differences are not evident in pain-related stoicism and cautiousness in people with cancer pain. Little is known about the factors associated with these pain-related attitudes or age-related patterns in these associations. The present cross-sectional study investigated the biopsychosocial correlates of the attitudes in younger and older patients with advanced cancer. Pain-related stoicism (fortitude, concealment, superiority) and cautiousness (self-doubt, reluctance) were assessed using the Pain Attitudes Questionnaire-Revised (PAQ-R). Participants, 155 younger (younger than 60 years old) and 114 older (60 years old or older) patients with advanced cancer completed the PAQ-R and measures of sociodemographic and medical characteristics, pain intensity, cognitive-affective pain-related responses, physical functioning, psychological distress and well-being, and psychosocial functioning. Backwards regression analyses identified correlates for each PAQ-R factor separately for younger and older patients. Activity engagement was a frequent correlate, but its relationship with concealment was the only association common to both age groups. Younger and older patients exhibited different avoidance-related constructs suggesting relational challenges in the former group (avoidant attachment) and intrapersonal fear in the latter (cognitive avoidance). Medical correlates also showed age differences: younger patients showed symptom-focused correlates, whereas older patients showed aging-related correlates. Findings support a biopsychosocial framework of cancer-pain adaptation incorporating a lifespan-developmental perspective. To our knowledge, this article is the first to identify biopsychosocial correlates of stoic and cautious attitudes toward cancer pain in younger and older patients with advanced cancer. Findings highlight possible age-related motivations for greater pain-related stoicism or cautiousness and can potentially inform interventions addressing challenges in

  17. Should psychiatrists be more cautious about the long-term prophylactic use of antipsychotics?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Robin M; Quattrone, Diego; Natesan, Sridhar

    2016-01-01

    over the cumulative effects of antipsychotics on physical health and brain structure. Although controversy remains concerning some of the data, the wise psychiatrist should regularly review the benefit to each patient of continuing prophylactic antipsychotics against the risk of side-effects and loss...... of effectiveness through the development of supersensitivity of the dopamine D2 receptor. Psychiatrists should work with their patients to slowly reduce the antipsychotic to the lowest dose that prevents the return of distressing symptoms. Up to 40% of those whose psychosis remits after a first episode should...

  18. How to be Cautious but Open to Learning: Time to Update Biotechnology and GMO Legislation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove

    2016-08-01

    Precautionary measures to protect human health and the environment should be science based. This implies that they should be directed at a potential danger for which there is credible scientific evidence (although that evidence need not be conclusive). Furthermore, protective measures should be updated as relevant science advances. This means that decisionmakers should be prepared to strengthen the precautionary measures if the danger turns out to be greater than initially suspected, and to reduce or lift them, should the danger prove to be smaller. Most current legislation on agricultural biotechnology has not been scientifically updated. Therefore, it reflects outdated criteria for identifying products that can cause problems. Modern knowledge in genetics, plant biology, and ecology has provided us with much better criteria that risk analysts can use to identify the potentially problematic breeding projects at which precautionary measures should be directed. Legislation on agricultural biotechnology should be scientifically updated. Furthermore, legislators should learn from this example that regulations based on the current state of science need to have inbuilt mechanisms for revisions and adjustments in response to future developments in science. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Do patients prefer optimistic or cautious psychiatrists? An experimental study with new and long-term patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priebe, Stefan; Ramjaun, Gonca; Strappelli, Nadia; Arcidiacono, Eleonora; Aguglia, Eugenio; Greenberg, Lauren

    2017-01-17

    Patients seeking treatment may be assumed to prefer a psychiatrist who suggests a new treatment with confidence and optimism. Yet, this might not apply uniformly to all patients. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that new patients prefer psychiatrists who present treatments optimistically, whilst patients with longer-term experience of mental health care may rather prefer more cautious psychiatrists. In an experimental study, we produced video-clips of four psychiatrists, each suggesting a pharmacological and a psychological treatment once with optimism and once with caution. 100 'new' patients with less than 3 months experience of mental health care and 100 'long-term' patients with more than one year of experience were shown a random selection of one video-clip from each psychiatrist, always including an optimistic and a cautious suggestion of each treatment. Patients rated their preferences for psychiatrists on Likert type scales. Differences in subgroups with different age (18-40 vs. 41-65 years), gender, school leaving age (≤16 vs. >16 years), and diagnosis (ICD 10 F2 vs. others) were explored. New patients preferred more optimistic treatment suggestions, whilst there was no preference among long-term patients. The interaction effect between preference for treatment presentations and experience of patients was significant (interaction p-value = 0.003). Findings in subgroups were similar. In line with the hypothesis, psychiatrists should suggest treatments with optimism to patients with little experience of mental health care. However, this rule does not apply to longer-term patients, who may have experienced treatment failures in the past.

  20. Access to benznidazole for Chagas disease in the United States-Cautious optimism?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan D Alpern

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Drugs for neglected tropical diseases (NTD are being excessively priced in the United States. Benznidazole, the first-line drug for Chagas disease, may become approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA and manufactured by a private company in the US, thus placing it at risk of similar pricing. Chagas disease is an NTD caused by Trypanosoma cruzi; it is endemic to Latin America, infecting 8 million individuals. Human migration has changed the epidemiology causing nonendemic countries to face increased challenges in diagnosing and managing patients with Chagas disease. Only 2 drugs exist with proven efficacy: benznidazole and nifurtimox. Benznidazole has historically faced supply problems and drug shortages, limiting accessibility. In the US, it is currently only available under an investigational new drug (IND protocol from the CDC and is provided free of charge to patients. However, 2 companies have stated that they intend to submit a New Drug Application (NDA for FDA approval. Based on recent history of companies acquiring licensing rights for NTD drugs in the US with limited availability, it is likely that benznidazole will become excessively priced by the manufacturer-paradoxically making it less accessible. However, if the companies can be taken at their word, there may be reason for optimism.

  1. Access to benznidazole for Chagas disease in the United States-Cautious optimism?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpern, Jonathan D; Lopez-Velez, Rogelio; Stauffer, William M

    2017-09-01

    Drugs for neglected tropical diseases (NTD) are being excessively priced in the United States. Benznidazole, the first-line drug for Chagas disease, may become approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and manufactured by a private company in the US, thus placing it at risk of similar pricing. Chagas disease is an NTD caused by Trypanosoma cruzi; it is endemic to Latin America, infecting 8 million individuals. Human migration has changed the epidemiology causing nonendemic countries to face increased challenges in diagnosing and managing patients with Chagas disease. Only 2 drugs exist with proven efficacy: benznidazole and nifurtimox. Benznidazole has historically faced supply problems and drug shortages, limiting accessibility. In the US, it is currently only available under an investigational new drug (IND) protocol from the CDC and is provided free of charge to patients. However, 2 companies have stated that they intend to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) for FDA approval. Based on recent history of companies acquiring licensing rights for NTD drugs in the US with limited availability, it is likely that benznidazole will become excessively priced by the manufacturer-paradoxically making it less accessible. However, if the companies can be taken at their word, there may be reason for optimism.

  2. A cautious iodization programme bringing iodine intake to a low recommended level is associated with an increase in the prevalence of thyroid autoantibodies in the population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Inge B.; Knudsen, Nils; Carlé, Allan

    2011-01-01

    ·7 vs 19·9% (P women and especially observed at low...... concentrations of antibodies. Conclusion The prevalence of both TPO‐Ab and Tg‐Ab was higher 4–5 years after a cautious iodine fortification of salt was introduced in Denmark. The increase was most pronounced in young women and in the low concentrations of antibody. Further studies are needed to evaluate the long...

  3. Psychological factors associated with indices of risky, reckless and cautious driving in a national sample of drivers in the Republic of Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarma, Kiran M; Carey, Rachel N; Kervick, Aoife A; Bimpeh, Yaw

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a national survey of drivers in the Republic of Ireland that sought to examine psychological predictors of specific driving behaviours. 1638 respondents attending National Car Testing (NCT) centres nationwide completed a questionnaire battery that included personality, attitudinal, locus of control and social influence measures. The driving behaviours examined were drawn from a Driving Behaviour Scale (Iversen, 2004) and included Speeding and Rule Violation, Reckless Driving, Wearing of Seat Belts, Cautious Driving and Drink Driving. Cross-group comparisons suggested that males engaged in more risky and less cautious driving behaviours than females, and participants under the age of 25 were more risky and less cautious than those 25 years or older. Statistically significant models of each driving outcome emerged. The best model fit was for speeding and rule violation, which was predicted by a model including positive attitudes towards speeding, greater normative influences of friends and higher perceived behavioural control, extraversion and driving anger. These findings offer important insights into the correlates of different driving behaviours and can help inform the work of road safety practitioners. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Inhibition of Pre-Supplementary Motor Area by Continuous Theta Burst Stimulation Leads to More Cautious Decision-making and More Efficient Sensory Evidence Integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tosun, Tuğçe; Berkay, Dilara; Sack, Alexander T; Çakmak, Yusuf Ö; Balcı, Fuat

    2017-08-01

    Decisions are made based on the integration of available evidence. The noise in evidence accumulation leads to a particular speed-accuracy tradeoff in decision-making, which can be modulated and optimized by adaptive decision threshold setting. Given the effect of pre-SMA activity on striatal excitability, we hypothesized that the inhibition of pre-SMA would lead to higher decision thresholds and an increased accuracy bias. We used offline continuous theta burst stimulation to assess the effect of transient inhibition of the right pre-SMA on the decision processes in a free-response two-alternative forced-choice task within the drift diffusion model framework. Participants became more cautious and set higher decision thresholds following right pre-SMA inhibition compared with inhibition of the control site (vertex). Increased decision thresholds were accompanied by an accuracy bias with no effects on post-error choice behavior. Participants also exhibited higher drift rates as a result of pre-SMA inhibition compared with the vertex inhibition. These results, in line with the striatal theory of speed-accuracy tradeoff, provide evidence for the functional role of pre-SMA activity in decision threshold modulation. Our results also suggest that pre-SMA might be a part of the brain network associated with the sensory evidence integration.

  5. Do Procrastination-Friendly Environments Make Students Delay Unnecessarily?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordby, Kent; Klingsieck, Katrin; Svartdal, Frode

    2017-01-01

    Research on procrastination emphasizes trait explanations for unwanted delay, yet environmental factors are most probably significant contributors to the problem. In this paper, we review literature related to the influence of environmental factors on academic procrastination and investigate how such factors may be assessed in facilitating…

  6. Risk attitudes and birth order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, Philipp; Heindl, Johannes; Jung, Andreas; Langguth, Berthold; Hajak, Göran; Sand, Philipp G

    2014-07-01

    Risk attitudes play important roles in health behavior and everyday decision making. It is unclear, however, whether these attitudes can be predicted from birth order. We investigated 200 mostly male volunteers from two distinct settings. After correcting for multiple comparisons, for the number of siblings and for confounding by gender, ordinal position predicted perception of health-related risks among participants in extreme sports (p < .01). However, the direction of the effect contradicted Adlerian theory. Except for alcohol consumption, these findings extended to self-reported risk behavior. Together, the data call for a cautious stand on the impact of birth order on risk attitudes. © The Author(s) 2013.

  7. Dairy farms testing positive for Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis have poorer hygiene practices and are less cautious when purchasing cattle than test-negative herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, R; Barkema, H W; De Buck, J; Orsel, K

    2016-06-01

    Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), the causative agent of Johne's disease, is present on most dairy farms in Alberta, causing economic losses and presenting a potential public health concern. The objective of this cross-sectional study was to identify risk factors for Alberta dairy herds being MAP-positive based on environmental samples (ES). Risk assessments were conducted and ES were collected on 354 Alberta dairy farms (62% of eligible producers) voluntarily participating in the Alberta Johne's Disease Initiative. In univariate logistic regression, risk factors addressing animal and pen hygiene, as well as the use of feeding equipment to remove manure and manure application on pastures, were all associated with the number of positive ES. Furthermore, based on factor analysis, risk factors were clustered and could be summarized as 4 independent factors: (1) animal, pen, and feeder contamination; (2) shared equipment and pasture contamination; (3) calf diet; and (4) cattle purchase. Using these factor scores as independent variables in multivariate logistic regression models, a 1-unit increase in animal, pen, and feeder contamination resulted in 1.31 times higher odds of having at least 1 positive ES. Furthermore, a 1-unit increase in cattle purchase also resulted in 1.31 times the odds of having at least 1 positive ES. Finally, a 100-cow increase in herd size resulted in an odds ratio of 2.1 for having at least 1 positive ES. In conclusion, cleanliness of animals, pens, and feeders, as well as cattle purchase practices, affected risk of herd infection with MAP. Therefore, improvements in those management practices should be the focus of effective tools to control MAP on dairy farms. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  9. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  10. Risk and the pregnant body.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyerly, Anne Drapkin; Mitchell, Lisa M; Armstrong, Elizabeth Mitchell; Harris, Lisa H; Kukla, Rebecca; Kuppermann, Miriam; Little, Margaret Olivia

    2009-01-01

    Reasoning well about risk is most challenging when a woman is pregnant, for patient and doctor alike. During pregnancy, we tend to note the risks of medical interventions without adequately noting those of failing to intervene, yet when it's time to give birth, interventions are seldom questioned, even when they don't work. Meanwhile, outside the clinic, advice given to pregnant women on how to stay healthy in everyday life can seem capricious and overly cautious. This kind of reasoning reflects fear, not evidence.

  11. A cautious approach to a new market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, D.

    1993-01-01

    As companies like Shell (London), Total (Paris), and Norsk Hydro (Oslo) spearhead the push into developing Vietnam's largely untapped oil and gas reserves, chemical firms are carefully monitoring events. Some already have fledgling operations there - ICI (London), for example, has established activities covering paints, titanium dioxide, and explosives. But most are waiting for others to go in first, says Patrick Looram, senior associate and director/Southeast Asia with Technomic Consultants, speaking at CW's 1993 Asia/Pacific Chemical Industry conference in Singapore. Describing Vietnam, with its 70-million population, as the 'last great Asian market,' Looram says the most important industries for the chemicals sector in the shorter terms are likely to include textiles, packaging, plastics, food and agriculture, and pharmaceuticals. But he notes the country's chemicals requirements are still at a very early stage, with 1992 plastics demand, for example, put at less than 100,000 m.t. Basic infrastructure requirements are put at $30 billion-$40 billion. Vietnam has a range of measures in place to establish a market economy, such as decentralized control over industry, freeing up of price controls, and liberal foreign investment laws. Fewer than 1,000 of Vietnam's 12,000-plus state enterprises are owned by national government; control is in the hands of the provinces and municipalities. But to get results, Looram says it is necessary to deal directly with plants. Many of these operations, however, are nearly insolvent, and Looram says about a third are expected to close over the next couple of years. The strength of other Asian economies is crucial to Vietnam's development, Looram says, while a lifting of the US embargo on vietnam will play an important role

  12. Risk factors in neuroleptic malignant syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Vinay; Magon, Rakesh; Mishra, B P; Sidhu, G B S; Mahajan, Ranjiv

    2003-01-01

    Neuroleptic malignant syndrome (NMS) is an uncommon but potentially serious idiosyncratic response to neuroleptic antipsychotics. It usually affects young males, but the risk has been seen to increase with certain factors including the administration practices of antipsychotic neuroleptics in these individuals. Even though no predictors for NMS are yet known, this article highlights the findings on certain risk factors as seen from a series of fifteen patients who developed NMS. Cautious use of neuroleptics in those at risk, early recognition and institution of immediate management is important.

  13. Environmental risk assessments for transgenic crops producing output trait enzymes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuttle, Ann; Shore, Scott; Stone, Terry

    2009-01-01

    The environmental risks from cultivating crops producing output trait enzymes can be rigorously assessed by testing conservative risk hypotheses of no harm to endpoints such as the abundance of wildlife, crop yield and the rate of degradation of crop residues in soil. These hypotheses can be tested with data from many sources, including evaluations of the agronomic performance and nutritional quality of the crop made during product development, and information from the scientific literature on the mode-of-action, taxonomic distribution and environmental fate of the enzyme. Few, if any, specific ecotoxicology or environmental fate studies are needed. The effective use of existing data means that regulatory decision-making, to which an environmental risk assessment provides essential information, is not unnecessarily complicated by evaluation of large amounts of new data that provide negligible improvement in the characterization of risk, and that may delay environmental benefits offered by transgenic crops containing output trait enzymes. PMID:19924556

  14. Prohibition of artificial hypoxic environments in sports: health risks rather than ethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lippi, Giuseppe; Franchini, Massimo; Guidi, Gian Cesare

    2007-12-01

    There is actual debate on a recent position of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), which has cautiously refrained from banning hypoxic tents and intends to monitor their health risk. Regardless of teleological and deontological concepts, we highlight that the health risks inherent to the widespread use of these artificial performance-enhancing devices would make them as unsafe as other forms of blood doping.

  15. Technological risk: Perception and handling in the EEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schuster, G.

    1980-01-01

    The Europeans tend to believe that in their own country science is put to use for the benefit of people in general. But this reductance is accompanied by a widespread feeling in all countries that politicians do not give serious enough consideration to the choices that have to be made in this field. The more technology interferes with the moral and physical sphere of man, the more cautious people are, considering such technology to be risky. The more public opinion is conscious of what is at stake with possible risks and hazards, the more people are inclined to run these risks and hazards. (DG)

  16. Japanese professional nurses spend unnecessarily long time doing nursing assistants' tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudo, Yasushi; Yoshimura, Emiko; Shahzad, Machiko Taruzuka; Shibuya, Akitaka; Aizawa, Yoshiharu

    2012-09-01

    In environments in which professional nurses do simple tasks, e.g., laundry, cleaning, and waste disposal, they cannot concentrate on technical jobs by utilizing their expertise to its fullest benefit. Particularly, in Japan, the nursing shortage is a serious problem. If professional nurses take their time to do any of these simple tasks, the tasks should be preferentially allocated to nursing assistants. Because there has been no descriptive study to investigate the amount of time Japanese professional nurses spent doing such simple tasks during their working time, their actual conditions remain unclear. Professional nurses recorded their total working time and the time they spent doing such simple tasks during the week of the survey period. The time an individual respondent spent doing one or more simple tasks during that week was summed up, as was their working time. Subsequently, the percentage of the summed time he or she spent doing any of those tasks in his or her summed working time was calculated. A total of 1,086 respondents in 19 hospitals that had 87 to 376 beds were analyzed (response rate: 53.3%). The average time (SD) that respondents spent doing those simple tasks and their total working time were 2.24 (3.35) hours and 37.48 (10.88) hours, respectively. The average percentage (SD) of the time they spent doing the simple tasks in their working time was 6.00% (8.39). Hospital administrators must decrease this percentage. Proper working environments in which professional nurses can concentrate more on their technical jobs must be created.

  17. Tattoos and transfusion-transmitted disease risk: implications for the screening of blood donors in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sérgio de A. Nishioka

    Full Text Available Having a tattoo has been associated with serological evidence of hepatitis B and C viruses, as well as human immunodeficiency virus infections and syphilis; all of these are known to be transmissible by blood transfusion. These associations are of higher magnitude for individuals with nonprofessionally-applied tattoos and with two or more tattoos. Tattoos are common among drug addicts and prisoners, conditions that are also associated with transfusion-transmitted diseases. We examined the implications of these associations for the screening of blood donors in Brazil. Numbers of individuals who would be correctly or unnecessarily deferred from blood donation on the basis of the presence of tattoos, and on their number and type, were calculated for different prevalence situations based on published odds ratios. If having a tattoo was made a deferral criterion, cost savings (due to a reduced need for laboratory testing and subsequent follow-up would accrue at the expense of the deferral of appropriate donors. Restricting deferral to more `at-risk' sub-groups of tattooed individuals would correctly defer less individuals and would also reduce the numbers of potential donors unnecessarily deferred. Key factors in balancing cost savings and unnecessary deferrals include the magnitude of the pool of blood donors in the population, the prevalence of individuals with tattoos and the `culture' of tattoos in the population. Tattoos can therefore be an efficient criterion for the screening of blood donors in certain settings, a finding that requires corroboration from larger population-based studies.

  18. Advantages and disadvantages of unstructured cardiovascular risk factor screening for follow-up in primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Anna W; de Mutsert, Renée; den Heijer, Martin; Rosendaal, Frits R; Jukema, Johan W; Blom, Jeanet W; Numans, Mattijs E

    2016-07-01

    In contrast to structured, integrated risk assessment in primary care, unstructured risk factor screening outside primary care and corresponding recommendations to consult a general practitioner (GP) are often based on one abnormal value of a single risk factor. This study investigates the advantages and disadvantages of unstructured screening of blood pressure and cholesterol outside primary care. After the baseline visit of the Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity study (population-based prospective cohort study in persons aged 45-65 years, recruited 2008-2012) all participants received a letter with results of blood pressure and cholesterol, and a recommendation to consult a GP if results were abnormal. Four years after the start of the study, participants received a questionnaire about the follow-up of their results. The study population consisted of 6343 participants, 48% men, mean age 56 years, mean body mass index 30 kg/m(2). Of all participants 66% had an abnormal result and, of these, 49% had a treatment indication based on the risk estimation system SCORE-NL 2006. Of the 25% of the participants who did not consult a GP, 40% had a treatment indication. Of the participants with an abnormal result 19% were worried, of whom 60% had no treatment indication. In this population 51% of the participants with an abnormal result had unnecessarily received a recommendation to consult a GP, and 10% were unnecessarily worried. GPs should be informed about the complete risk assessment, and only participants at intermediate or high risk should receive a recommendation to consult a GP. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

  19. Risk communication related to animal products derived from biotechnology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrea, D

    2005-04-01

    Previous chapters of this review have dealt with the key considerations related to the application of biotechnology in veterinary science and animal production. This article explores the theory and practice of risk communication and sets out the basic principles for good risk communication when dealing with new technologies, uncertainty, and cautious and sceptical consumers. After failure to communicate with consumers and stakeholders about the risk to human health from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the 1990s, Government Agencies in the United Kingdom have made significant improvements in risk communication. The official inquiry that followed the BSE crisis concluded that a policy of openness was the correct approach, and this article emphasises the importance of consultation, consistency and transparency. There are, however, many different factors that affect public perception of risk (religious, political, social, cultural, etc.) and developing effective risk communication strategies must take all of these complex issues into consideration.

  20. Technical risk - individual responsibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herzog, R.

    1984-01-01

    The author, vice-president of the Federal Constitutional Court, delivered this opening address at the international symposium on nuclear liability held in Munich in September 1984 by OECD/NEA and IAEA. He starts by asking: Where does danger begin, where does risk end. It is the true and original task of the state to keep damage away from its citizens: this entails the obligation for additional garantees - not withstanding an almost greatest possible degree of safety - to at least helpfully compensate damage incurred, should such damage arise. In case of really severe accidents the essential thing is not the operator's liability but the entry of the state into that obligation, and this fact remains unchanged even if the maximum limits of liability were raised or in case of their removal. Therefore it is not necessary to be cautious about the question of unlimited liability, i.e. the unlimited entry of the state into such obligations, especially as all those responsible are convinced that there is practically no risk of that contingency occurring. (HSCH) [de

  1. Importance measures and genetic algorithms for designing a risk-informed optimally balanced system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico; Podofillini, Luca

    2007-01-01

    This paper deals with the use of importance measures for the risk-informed optimization of system design and management. An optimization approach is presented in which the information provided by the importance measures is incorporated in the formulation of a multi-objective optimization problem to drive the design towards a solution which, besides being optimal from the points of view of economics and safety, is also 'balanced' in the sense that all components have similar importance values. The approach allows identifying design systems without bottlenecks or unnecessarily high-performing components and with test/maintenance activities calibrated according to the components' importance ranking. The approach is tested at first against a multi-state system design optimization problem in which off-the-shelf components have to be properly allocated. Then, the more realistic problem of risk-informed optimization of the technical specifications of a safety system of a nuclear power plant is addressed

  2. Malignant transformation of a potentially low risk lichenoid reaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ashir, K.R.; Chatra, L.

    2012-01-01

    Lichenoid reaction represents a family of oral lesions identical, both clinically and histologically to oral lichen planus. The triggering factor for this lesion varies from medicines to dental materials, usually demonstrating a cause-effect relationship unlike lichen planus. We present a typical case of lichenoid reaction on the buccal mucosa that appeared in response to betel quid which progressed to carcinoma during a follow-up period of 6 months. Lichenoid reactions occurring in response to known carcinogens and that occurring in risk group population has to be observed more cautiously. (author)

  3. Cardiovascular risk during hormonal treatment in patients with prostate cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Poppel, Hein; Tombal, Bertrand

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this review is to provide information on cardiovascular risk following androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) in prostate cancer patients and to suggest potential prevention and management strategies. Androgen deprivation therapy can cause peripheral insulin resistance, increase fat mass and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and induce type 2 diabetes. While recent studies have reported an association in patients with prostate cancer between ADT and increased risk of cardiovascular events, other studies have not detected the association. However, at this time, it is plausible that ADT could increase cardiovascular risk because of the adverse effect of ADT on risk factors for cardiovascular disease. It is advisable that prostate cancer patients in whom ADT is initiated be referred to their physician, who will carefully monitor them for potential metabolic effects. Therefore, physicians should be informed about these potential side effects. This especially applies to men aged >65 years and those with pre-existing cardiovascular comorbidities. Adopting a healthy lifestyle including a balanced diet and regular physical activity is recommended. Patients with cardiovascular disease should receive appropriate preventive therapies, including lipid-lowering, antihypertensive, glucose-lowering, and antiplatelet therapy. ADT should preferably not be unnecessarily administered to prostate cancer patients with pre-existing cardiovascular disease, certainly not to those in whom the risk of prostate cancer-specific mortality is low. The physician should carefully weigh the potential benefits of ADT against the possible risks in individual patients with prostate cancer

  4. The social perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eiser, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    Much research on acceptance of risks implies a distinction between objective and subjective definitions of risk. This paper disputes this distinction, arguing instead that discrepancies between public and 'expert' views are to be better understood in terms of differences in how decisions are seen to be made. Risk is a product of decisions taken in response to environmental events, and depends not simply on the threat posed by such events but on the quality of the decisions. A model of decision quality is presented, derived from signal detection theory, which distinguishes between the ability to discriminate between different kinds of events, and the criterion, or level of certainty that is required before a particular response is chosen. Whereas discrimination ability depends on the expertise of decision-makers and the predictability of the events in question, the response criterion reflects considerations of costs, benefits and equity. Where the cost of overlooking a real threat ('false-negative' response) is high, a cautious criterion may be demanded. Where discrimination ability is also seen to be low, the chance of 'false-negatives' may only be adequately reduced at the price of a large number of 'false-positives', or 'unnecessary' protective responses against imagined threats. In extreme cases, this may amount to total opposition to the operation of a system. (author)

  5. Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

    2003-01-01

    ). - Optimal risk management demands using limited resources where they will achieve the most risk reduction of overall benefit. 5. Promise no more risk management that can be delivered (honesty).- Unrealistic expectations of risk management can be avoided with honest and candid public accounting of what we know and don't know, and what we can and can't do using risk assessment and risk management. 6. Impose no more risk that you would tolerate yourself (the Golden Rule). - The Golden Rule is important in risk management because it forces decision makers to abandon complete detachment from their decisions so they may understand the perspectives of those affected. 7. Be cautious in the face of uncertainty ("better safe than sorry"). - Risk management must adopt a cautious approach when faced with a potentially serous risk, even if the evidence is uncertain. 8. Foster informed risk decision making for all stakeholders (autonomy). - Fostering autonomous decision making involves both providing people with the opportunity to participate, and full and honest disclosure of all the information required for informed decisions. 9. Risk management processes must be flexible and evolutionary to be open to new knowledge and understanding (evolution, evaluation, iterative process). - The incorporation of new evidence requires that risk management be a flexible, evolutionary, and iterative process, and that evaluation is employed at the beginning and througthout the process. 10. the complete elimination fo risk is not possible (life is not risk free).- Risk is pervasive in our society, and cannot be totally eliminated despite an oft-expressed public desire for "zero risk". However, the level of risk that may ve tolerable by any individual is dependent on values of beliefs, as well as scientific information. Each agency must continue to employ a process that meets the needs of their specific application of risk management. A single approach cannot satisfy the diverse areas to which risk

  6. IRANIAN SCIENCE: Iran's Scientists Cautiously Reach Out to the World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenig, R

    2000-11-24

    Two decades after Iran's Islamic revolution, science in this politically isolated but oil-rich nation may be on the verge of resurgence. The nation's reform-minded president, Mohammad Khatami, and his allies are promising more money for R&D, reorganizing universities to beef up graduate education and research, and cracking open the door to closer cooperation with scientists abroad, including those in the United States. But Iran's government is walking a tightrope between hard-liners on the right who oppose reforms and liberal university students eager for change.

  7. S. Korea nuclear: a cautious path to self-reliance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    The South Korean nuclear power industry is described in this article. By comparing policy on nuclear technology in North and South Korea, differing political allegiances are highlighted. South Korea, rather than pursuing nuclear weapons capability like North Korea, has worked hard to produce a rapidly expanding nuclear powered electricity supply industry, which is described. Government targets which aim to meet predicted increases in demand for electricity are noted, but the problems of waste management and reprocessing have yet to be solved. (UK)

  8. Prescribing medical cannabis in Canada: Are we being too cautious?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Stephanie; Kerr, Thomas; Montaner, Julio

    2015-04-30

    There has been much recent discussion and debate surrounding cannabis in Canada, including the prescribing of medical cannabis for therapeutic purposes. Certain commentators - including the Canadian Medical Association (CMA) - have denounced the prescribing of cannabis for medical purposes due to a perceived lack of evidence related to the drug's efficacy, harms, and mechanism of action. In this commentary, we present arguments in favour of prescribing medical cannabis in Canada. We believe the anti-cannabis position taken by CMA and other commentators is not entirely evidence-based. Using the example of neuropathic pain, we present and summarize the clinical evidence surrounding smoked or vapourized cannabis, including recent evidence pertaining to the effectiveness of cannabis in comparison to existing standard pharmacotherapies for neuropathy. Further, we outline how the concerns expressed regarding cannabis' mechanism of action are inconsistent with current decision-making processes related to the prescribing of many common pharmaceuticals. Finally, we discuss potential secondary public health benefits of prescribing cannabis for pain-related disorders in Canada and North America.

  9. Selecting An Open Access Journal for Publication: Be Cautious

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffecker, Lilian; Hastings-Tolsma, Marie; Vincent, Deborah; Zuniga, Heidi

    2015-12-04

    Nurse scholars and clinicians seek to publish their research and scholarly findings to strengthen both nursing science and clinical practice. Traditionally subscription-based publications have been the mainstay of knowledge dissemination. However, subscription costs have tended to restrict access to many journals to a small, specialized, academic community, a limitation that has contributed to the development of open access (OA) publications. OA journals have a powerful appeal as they allow greater access to scholars and consumers on a global level. However, many OA journals depend on an author-pays model that may lead to unintended and undesirable consequences for authors. Today, it is easier than ever to share scholarly findings, but authors need to be vigilant when selecting a journal in which to publish. In this article, we discuss the background of open access journals and describe key consideration to distinguish between reputable publications and those that may lead authors astray. We conclude that despite controversy and concerns related to publishing in OA journals, these journals do provide opportunities for researchers and clinicians to raise the profile of their work and ensure a robust, scholarly communication system.

  10. Bold or cautious : behavioural characteristics and dominance in great tits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verbeek, M.

    1998-01-01

    Social dominance affects territory acquisition, reproduction and survival in many species. It plays a major role in the life of an individual, and has important consequences for its fitness. Several factors that can influence dominance relationships between individuals have been well

  11. Limits for Beam Induced Damage: Reckless or too Cautious?

    CERN Document Server

    Bertarelli, A; Carra, F; Cerutti, F; Dallocchio, A; Mariani, N; Peroni, L; Scapin, M

    2011-01-01

    Accidental events implying direct beam impacts on collimators are of the utmost importance as they may lead to serious limitations of the overall LHC Performance. In order to assess damage threshold of components impacted by high energy density beams, entailing changes of phase and extreme pressures, state-of-the-art numerical simulation methods are required. In this paper, a review of the different dynamic response regimes induced by particle beams is given along with an indication of the most suited tools to treat each regime. Particular attention is paid to the most critical case, that of shock waves, for which standard Finite Element codes are totally unfit. A novel category of numerical tools, named Hydrocodes, has been adapted and used to analyse the consequences of an asynchronous beam abort on Phase 1 Tertiary Collimators (TCT). A number of simulations has been carried out with varying beam energy, number of bunches and bunch sizes allowing to identify different damage levels for the TCT up to catastr...

  12. Lithuania is cautious regarding sanctions against Minsk / Rokas M. Tracevskis

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Tracevskis, Rokas M.

    2011-01-01

    23. mail toimus Valgevenes devalvatsioon. Poola välisminister Radoslaw Sikorski üritab veenda Euroopa Liitu Valgevene suhtes majandussanktsioone rakendama. Läti ja Leedu ei ole sellega nõus. 23. mail toimunud president Dalia Grybauskaite ja peaminister Andrius Kubiliuse kohtumisel räägiti Valgevene teemadel

  13. Notification of occupational disease and the risk of work disability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolstad, Henrik A; Christensen, Michael V; Jensen, Lone Donbæk

    2012-01-01

    for patients who were not working. CONCLUSIONS: Notification of an occupational disease may, as an unintended side effect, increase the risk of work disability. A cautious interpretation is warranted because data analyses may not fully have accounted for the poorer vocational prognosis already present......OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to analyze if notification of an occupational disease increases the risk of work disability. METHODS: We included 2304 patients examined at the Department of Occupational Medicine, Aarhus University Hospital, 1998-2005 and followed them for two years. A total......, occupational, and social characteristics that predict poorer vocational prognosis. Analyses that adjusted for these differences showed an increased risk of work disability following notification for patients who were working when notified at baseline (HR (adj)1.46, 95% CI 1.17-1.82). No effect was seen...

  14. How does economic risk aversion affect biodiversity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouysset, L; Doyen, L; Jiguet, F

    2013-01-01

    Significant decline of biodiversity in farmlands has been reported for several decades. To limit the negative impact of agriculture, many agro-environmental schemes have been implemented, but their effectiveness remains controversial. In this context, the study of economic drivers is helpful to understand the role played by farming on biodiversity. The present paper analyzes the impact of risk aversion on farmland biodiversity. Here "risk aversion" means a cautious behavior of farmers facing uncertainty. We develop a bio-economic model that articulates bird community dynamics and representative farmers selecting land uses within an uncertain macro-economic context. It is specialized and calibrated at a regional scale for France through national databases. The influence of risk aversion is assessed on ecological, agricultural, and economic outputs through projections at the 2050 horizon. A high enough risk aversion appears sufficient to both manage economic risk and promote ecological performance. This occurs through a diversification mechanism on regional land uses. However, economic calibration leads to a weak risk-aversion parameter, which is consistent with the current decline of farmland birds. Spatial disparities however suggest that public incentives could be necessary to reinforce the diversification and bio-economic effectiveness.

  15. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: Quantitatively evaluate the risk and justify changes based on objective risk arguments; Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The US NRC Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  16. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of Technical Specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: quantitatively evaluate the risk impact and justify changes based on objective risk arguments. Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  17. Radiation protection philosophy and risk estimates. NCRP Report 43 (1975), NAS-Beir Committee Report (1972, UNSCEAR Report (1972)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casarett, G.W.

    1975-01-01

    The purpose of the NCRP report no. 43 was to determine what influence the epidemiological and experimental radiobiological reports of the past several years should have on current NCRP radiation exposure standards. The position of the NCRP is that the lowest practicable radiation level below the recommended dose limits is the fundamental basis for establishing radiation protection standards, and on the assumption that the most important health hazards do not have a dose threshold. The BEIR report states that societal needs can be met with far lower average exposures and risks than permitted by the current Radiation Protection Guide of 170 millirems per yr, and that the current Guide is unnecessarily high. A review is given of the recent history of radiation protection standards and a discussion is given of similarities and differences between the BEIR and UNSCEAR reports

  18. 'Everyone has an agenda': Professionals' understanding and negotiation of risk within the Guardianship system of Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyllie, Aaron; Saunders, Bernadette J

    2018-02-19

    It is frequently asserted that pressures to assess and manage risk have eroded the therapeutic, rights-based foundation of the human services profession. Some argue that human service workers operate in a culture of fear in which self-protection and blame avoidance, rather than clients' needs, primarily drive decision-making. In the field of Adult Guardianship, it has been suggested that organisational risk avoidance may be motivating applications for substitute decision-makers, unnecessarily curtailing clients' rights and freedoms. However, the absence of research examining the operation of risk within Guardianship decision-making inhibits verifying and responding to this very serious suggestion. This article draws on semi-structured interviews conducted with 10 professionals involved in the Victorian Guardianship system, which explored how issues of risk are perceived and negotiated in everyday practice. Risk was found to be a complex and subjective construct which can present both dangers and opportunities for Guardianship practitioners and their clients. While a number of participants reported that Guardianship might sometimes operate as an avenue for mitigating the fear and uncertainty of risk, most participants also valued positive risk-taking and were willing, in their clients' interests, to challenge conservative logics of risk. These findings highlight the need for further research which examines how service providers and policy makers can create spaces that support open discussions around issues of risk and address practitioners' sense of fear and vulnerability. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. The Sicomines agreement revisited: prudent Chinese banks and risk-taking Chinese companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jansson, Johanna

    2013-01-01

    The Sicomines ‘minerals-for-infrastructure' agreement struck between the Congolese government and a consortium of Chinese companies in 2007 is one of the most well-known embodiments of the Chinese presence in Africa. This briefing analyses recent developments in the implementation of the agreement....... With important expenses incurred in the DRC, the Chinese parties to the agreement are still negotiating for a financing arrangement in China. This illustrates that China is no monolith in its overseas activities. While China’s banks are cautious, the real risk-takers in the context of the Sicomines agreement...... are the Chinese companies....

  20. Use of probabilistic risk assessments to define areas of possible exemption from regulatory requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, C.A.; Carlson, D.; Kolaczkowski, A.; LaChance, J.

    1988-01-01

    The Risk-Based Licensing Program (RBLP) was sponsored by the Department of Energy for the purpose of establishing and demonstrating an approach for identifying potential areas for exemption from current regulatory requirements in the licensing of nuclear power plants. Such an approach could assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for both current and future nuclear plant designs. Use of the methodology could result in streamlining the regulatory process by eliminating unnecessarily detailed reviews of portions of a plant design not important to risk. The RBLP methodology utilizes probabilistic risk assessments, (PRAs), which are required of all future applicants for nuclear power plant licenses. PRA results are used as a screening tool to determine the risk significance of various plant features which are correlated to the risk importance of regulations to identify potential areas for regulatory exemption. Additional consideration is then given to non-risk factors in the final determination of exemption candidates. The RBLP methodology was demonstrated using an existing PRA. The results of the demonstration are highlighted. 10 refs

  1. On the Concept and Definition of Terrorism Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

    2015-12-01

    In this article, we provide some reflections on how to define and understand the concept of terrorism risk in a professional risk assessment context. As a basis for this discussion we introduce a set of criteria that we believe should apply to any conceptualization of terrorism risk. These criteria are based on both criteria used in other areas of risk analysis and our experience with terrorism risk analysis. That is, these criteria offer our perspective. We show that several of the suggested perspectives and definitions have weaknesses in relation to these criteria. A main problem identified is the idea that terrorism risk can be conceptualized as a function of probability and consequence, not as a function of the interactions between adaptive individuals and organizations. We argue that perspectives based solely on probability and consequence should be used cautiously or not at all because they fail to reflect the essential features of the concept of terrorism risk, the threats and attacks, their consequences, and the uncertainties, all in the context of adaptation by the adversaries. These three elements should in our view constitute the main pillars of the terrorism risk concept. From this concept we can develop methods for assessing the risk by identifying a set of threats, attacks, and consequence measures associated with the possible outcome scenarios together with a description of the uncertainties and interactions between the adversaries. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Red Color and Risk-Taking Behavior in Online Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnambs, Timo; Appel, Markus; Oeberst, Aileen

    2015-01-01

    In many situations red is associated with hazard and danger. As a consequence, it was expected that task-irrelevant color cues in online environments would affect risk-taking behaviors. This assumption was tested in two web-based experiments. The first study (N = 383) demonstrated that in risky choice dilemmas respondents preferred the less risky option when the displayed university logo was in red (versus gray); but only when both choice alternatives were at least moderately risky. The second study (N = 144) replicated these results with a behavioral outcome: Respondents showed more cautious behavior in a web-based game when the focal stimuli were colored red (versus blue). Together, these findings demonstrate that variations in the color design of a computerized environment affect risk taking: Red color leads to more conservative choices and behaviors. PMID:26207983

  3. Red Color and Risk-Taking Behavior in Online Environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timo Gnambs

    Full Text Available In many situations red is associated with hazard and danger. As a consequence, it was expected that task-irrelevant color cues in online environments would affect risk-taking behaviors. This assumption was tested in two web-based experiments. The first study (N = 383 demonstrated that in risky choice dilemmas respondents preferred the less risky option when the displayed university logo was in red (versus gray; but only when both choice alternatives were at least moderately risky. The second study (N = 144 replicated these results with a behavioral outcome: Respondents showed more cautious behavior in a web-based game when the focal stimuli were colored red (versus blue. Together, these findings demonstrate that variations in the color design of a computerized environment affect risk taking: Red color leads to more conservative choices and behaviors.

  4. Handbook of methods for risk-based analyses of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Mankamo, T.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-12-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while a few may not be conducive to safety. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research has sponsored research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. This handbook summarizes these risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), scheduled or preventive maintenance, action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), and management of plant configurations resulting from outages of systems, or components. For each topic, the handbook summarizes analytic methods with data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and gives examples of evaluations

  5. Handbook of methods for risk-based analyses of technical specifications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Mankamo, T. [Avaplan Oy, Espoo (Finland); Vesely, W.E. [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States)

    1994-12-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while a few may not be conducive to safety. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research has sponsored research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. This handbook summarizes these risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), scheduled or preventive maintenance, action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), and management of plant configurations resulting from outages of systems, or components. For each topic, the handbook summarizes analytic methods with data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and gives examples of evaluations.

  6. Applying radiation approaches to the control of public risks from chemical agents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, R.E.

    1989-01-01

    IF a hazardous agent has a threshold, prevention is the obvious measure of success. To the eyes of this author, success is also achieveable for a hazardous agent that may have no threshold and that causes its effects in a probabilistic manner. First, the technical people responsible for protection must be given a reasonable, well defined risk objective by governmental authorities. To the extent that they meet that objective (1) without unnecessarily increasing operational costs, (2) without interfering unnecessarily with operational activities, and (3) without diverting resources away from greater risks, they are successful. Considering these three qualifications, radiation protection for members of the public can hardly be presented as the panacea for other hazardous agents. It would be an error to dismiss the improvement opportunities discussed above as being of acdemic interest only. Decades of experience with radiation have demonstrated that these problems are both real adn significant. In the US the axioms discussed above are accepted as scientific fact for radiation by many policy makers, the news media and the public. For any operation the collective dose is calculated using zero dose as the lower limit of integration, the results are converted to cancer deaths using the risk coefficients, and decisions are made as though these deaths would actually occur without governmental intervention. As a result, billions of dollars and a very large number of highly skilled persons are being expended to protect against radiation doses far smaller than geographical variations in the natural radiation background. These expenditures are demanded by, and required for well-meaning, nontechnical people who have been misled. It is often stated by knowledgeable people that if the degree of protection required for radiation were also to be requested for the other hazards, human progress would come to a halt. If the radiation approaches are to be used in the control of public

  7. Emerging technologies in healthcare: navigating risks, evaluating rewards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGrady, Elizabeth; Conger, Sue; Blanke, Sandra; Landry, Brett J L

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this prescriptive research is to help decision makers become better informed about three technologies emerging in the healthcare arena by providing a basic description of the technology and describing their current applications, future healthcare deployment, potential risks, and related managerial issues. Two of the technologies, radio frequency identification (RFID) and global positioning systems (GPS), are currently available to healthcare organizations and appear capable of decreasing cost but may require significant initial investment and have disruptive potential. The third technology, nanotechnology, has limited current use but may revolutionize both the delivery of medicine and hospital infrastructure management. With cautious attention to managerial issues and meticulous attention to implementation details, healthcare organizations that can successfully navigate the coming technologically driven paradigm shifts will emerge more resilient organizations.

  8. CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasper Mbachu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

  9. Virtual driving and risk taking: do racing games increase risk-taking cognitions, affect, and behaviors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Peter; Kubitzki, Jörg; Guter, Stephanie; Frey, Dieter

    2007-03-01

    Research has consistently shown that aggressive video console and PC games elicit aggressive cognitions, affect, and behaviors. Despite the increasing popularity of racing (driving) games, nothing is known about the psychological impact of this genre. This study investigated whether playing racing games affects cognitions, affect, and behaviors that can promote risk taking in actual road traffic situations. In Study 1, the authors found that the frequency of playing racing games was positively associated with competitive driving, obtrusive driving, and car accidents; a negative association with cautious driving was observed. To determine cause and effect, in Study 2, the authors manipulated whether participants played 1 of 3 racing games or 1 of 3 neutral games. Participants who played a racing game subsequently reported a higher accessibility of cognitions and affect positively associated with risk taking than did participants who played a neutral game. Finally, on a more behavioral level, in Study 3, the authors found that men who played a racing game subsequently took higher risks in computer-simulated critical road traffic situations than did men who played a neutral game. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. ((c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Mcmanus, John

    2009-01-01

    Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...

  11. Concentration risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matić Vesna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Concentration risk has been gaining a special dimension in the contemporary financial and economic environment. Financial institutions are exposed to this risk mainly in the field of lending, mostly through their credit activities and concentration of credit portfolios. This refers to the concentration of different exposures within a single risk category (credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk.

  12. The Impact of Smokeless Tobacco Risk Information on Smokers' Risk Perceptions and Use Intentions: A News Media Experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wackowski, Olivia A; Manderski, Michelle T Bover; Lewis, M Jane; Delnevo, Cristine D

    2017-12-13

    Little research exists on the impact of risk information comparing smokeless tobacco (SLT) use, particularly snus, to cigarette smoking. This study explored this topic using a communication channel where smokers may be exposed to such information-the news media. We randomly assigned 1008 current smokers to read one of three constructed news stories or to a control group (no article). The "favorable" story framed snus as a "safer" smoking alternative while the "cautious" story described snus risks. The "mixed" version described potential risks and harm-reduction benefits. Participants completed a post-article survey with snus risk and harm perception and use intention measures. Article condition was significantly associated with perceived harm of daily snus use relative to smoking (1 = a lot less harmful - 5 = a lot more harmful; p news messages about SLT and snus relative to cigarettes may impact smokers' SLT harm perceptions and use intentions. Tobacco control professionals and FDA officials should consider the potential impact of the news media when communicating about tobacco risks.

  13. Assessment of the Density of Suppression to Identify Risk of Intractable Diplopia in the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newsham, David; O'Connor, Anna R

    2016-06-01

    Occlusion used to treat amblyopia towards the end of the developmental component of the critical period gives a risk of inducing intractable diplopia. In the United Kingdom, the density of suppression is assessed via the Sbisa/Bagolini filter bar, but there is very little research evidence to guide clinical practice or interpretation of the tests used. The aims of this study were to determine current practice and estimate the incidence of intractable diplopia following amblyopia treatment. Current practice and incidence of intractable diplopia following amblyopia were determined via a questionnaire distributed to head orthoptists in every eye department in the United Kingdom. The questionnaire explored testing and test conditions, interpretation of the test results, and cases of intractable diplopia over the last 5 years. There was considerable variation in clinical practice of the measurement of the density of suppression and interpretation of the results to guide the treatment of amblyopia. The minimum age of patients taking the test ranged from 2 to 8 years and the minimum filter considered still safe to continue treatment ranged from 4 to 17. It is estimated there were 24 cases of intractable diplopia over the last 5 years. The issue of intractable diplopia and amblyopia treatment is likely to become increasingly important as there appears to be greater plasticity and scope to treat amblyopia in teenagers and adults than was previously thought. Lack of knowledge of how to evaluate the risk may lead to more cases of intractable diplopia or alternatively treatment being withheld unnecessarily.

  14. A Comparative Analysis of Value at Risk Measurement on Emerging Stock Markets: Case of Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cerović Julija

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The concept of value at risk gives estimation of the maximum loss of financial position at a given time for a given probability. The motivation for this analysis lies in the desire to devote necessary attention to risks in Montenegro, and to approach to quantifying and managing risk more thoroughly. Objectives: This paper considers adequacy of the most recent approaches for quantifying market risk, especially of methods that are in the basis of extreme value theory, in Montenegrin emerging market before and during the global financial crisis. In particular, the purpose of the paper is to investigate whether extreme value theory outperforms econometric and quantile evaluation of VaR in emerging stock markets such as Montenegrin market. Methods/Approach: Daily return of Montenegrin stock market index MONEX20 is analyzed for the period January, 2004 - February, 2014. Value at Risk results based on GARCH models, quantile estimation and extreme value theory are compared. Results: Results of the empirical analysis show that the assessments of Value at Risk based on extreme value theory outperform econometric and quantile evaluations. Conclusions: It is obvious that econometric evaluations (ARMA(2,0- GARCH(1,1 and RiskMetrics proved to be on the lower bound of possible Value at Risk movements. Risk estimation on emerging markets can be focused on methodology using extreme value theory that is more sophisticated as it has been proven to be the most cautious model when dealing with turbulent times and financial turmoil.

  15. Risk factors affecting chronic rupture of the plantar fascia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ho Seong; Choi, Young Rak; Kim, Sang Woo; Lee, Jin Yong; Seo, Jeong Ho; Jeong, Jae Jung

    2014-03-01

    Prior to 1994, plantar fascia ruptures were considered as an acute injury that occurred primarily in athletes. However, plantar fascia ruptures have recently been reported in the setting of preexisting plantar fasciitis. We analyzed risk factors causing plantar fascia rupture in the presence of preexisting plantar fasciitis. We retrospectively reviewed 286 patients with plantar fasciitis who were referred from private clinics between March 2004 and February 2008. Patients were divided into those with or without a plantar fascia rupture. There were 35 patients in the rupture group and 251 in the nonrupture group. The clinical characteristics and risk factors for plantar fascia rupture were compared between the 2 groups. We compared age, gender, the affected site, visual analog scale pain score, previous treatment regimen, body mass index, degree of ankle dorsiflexion, the use of steroid injections, the extent of activity, calcaneal pitch angle, the presence of a calcaneal spur, and heel alignment between the 2 groups. Of the assessed risk factors, only steroid injection was associated with the occurrence of a plantar fascia rupture. Among the 35 patients with a rupture, 33 had received steroid injections. The odds ratio of steroid injection was 33. Steroid injections for plantar fasciitis should be cautiously administered because of the higher risk for plantar fascia rupture. Level III, retrospective comparative study.

  16. Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Megan K.; Ahmed, Alaa A.

    2015-01-01

    Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching (ARM) and whole-body (WB) leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the WB task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the WB movements than in ARM at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects' inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks. PMID:26106311

  17. Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan K. O'Brien

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching and whole-body leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory. Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the whole-body task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the whole-body movements than in arm-reaching at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects’ inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks.

  18. Threat affects risk preferences in movement decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Megan K; Ahmed, Alaa A

    2015-01-01

    Emotional states such as sadness, anger, and threat have been shown to play a critical role in decision-making processes. Here we addressed the question of whether risk preferences are influenced by postural threat and whether this influence generalizes across motor tasks. We examined risk attitudes in the context of arm-reaching (ARM) and whole-body (WB) leaning movements, expecting that increased postural threat would lead to proportionally similar changes in risk-sensitivity for each motor task. Healthy young adults were shown a series of two-alternative forced-choice lotteries, where they were asked to choose between a riskier lottery and a safer lottery on each trial. Our lotteries consisted of different monetary rewards and target sizes. Subjects performed each choice task at ground level and atop an elevated platform. In the presence of this postural threat, increased physiological arousal was correlated with decreased movement variability. To determine risk-sensitivity, we quantified the frequency with which a subject chose the riskier lottery and fit lottery responses to a choice model based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Subjects exhibited idiosyncratic changes in risk-sensitivity between motor tasks and between elevations. However, we found that overweighting of small probabilities increased with postural threat in the WB task, indicating a more cautious, risk-averse strategy is ascribed to the possibility of a fall. Subjects were also more risk-seeking in the WB movements than in ARM at low elevation; this behavior does not seem to derive from consistent distortions in utility or probability representations but may be explained by subjects' inaccurate estimation of their own motor variability. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit threat can modify risk attitudes in the motor domain, and the threat may induce risk-aversion in salient movement tasks.

  19. Personalized Treatment of Mothers With ADHD and Their Young At-Risk Children: A SMART Pilot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chronis-Tuscano, Andrea; Wang, Christine H; Strickland, Jennifer; Almirall, Daniel; Stein, Mark A

    2016-01-01

    Young children of mothers with adult attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are at risk for ADHD by virtue of genetics and environmental factors. Moreover, parent ADHD is associated with maladaptive parenting and poor child behavioral treatment response. Thus, a combined approach consisting of behavioral parent training (BPT) and maternal stimulant medication (MSM) may be needed to effectively treat ADHD within families. However, providing combined BPT+MSM initially to all families may be unnecessarily burdensome because not all families likely need combined treatment. The purpose of this study is to examine how to combine, sequence, and personalize treatment for these multiplex families in order to yield benefits to both the parent and child, thereby impacting the course of child ADHD and disruptive behavior symptoms. This article presents our rationale for, design of, and preliminary experiences (based on 26 participants) with an ongoing pilot Sequential Multiple Assessment Randomized Trial (SMART) designed to answer questions regarding the feasibility and acceptability of study protocols and interventions. This article also describes how the subsequent full-scale SMART might change based on what is learned in the SMART pilot and illustrates how the full-scale SMART could be used to inform clinical decision making about how to combine, sequence, and personalize treatment for complex children and families in which a parent has ADHD.

  20. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  1. Knowledge, attitudes, and practices toward malaria risk and prevention among frequent business travelers of a major oil and gas company.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Johannes; Breederveld, Daan; Roukens, Anna H; Hennink, Yvonne; Schouten, Marjolijn; Wendt, Judy K; Visser, Leo G

    2011-01-01

    Despite significant morbidity and mortality among business travelers due to malaria, very little has been published on knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) toward malaria risk. The aim of this study was to assess KAP among frequent international business travelers (FBT) and to identify recommendations for improving malaria prevention that could be applied to the wider FBT community in occupational health. A retrospective web-based survey was conducted in 2005 among self-registered FBT of an oil and gas company based in the Netherlands. The survey was completed by 328 of the 608 self-registered FBT (54%). Fifty-four percent of respondents had visited a high-risk area for malaria. Most respondents (96%) were experienced travelers; the majority (71%) sought health advice before their trip and made use of a company health resource. Fever was recognized as a malaria symptom by all FBT; travel to high-risk malaria areas was correctly identified by 96%, and 99% of these travelers adhered to use of adequate personal protective measures. The proportion of travelers carrying appropriate anti-malaria drug regimen was positively associated with receiving company advice among FBT traveling to high-risk destinations (RR = 2.10, 95% CI: 1.21-3.67), but not for those traveling to low- or no-risk destinations. Only 8% (14) of those going to a high-risk area were not carrying malaria prophylaxis. One in five of FBT traveling to no-risk areas were unnecessarily carrying malaria prophylaxis. The majority of KAP results were excellent. We postulate that a company culture with a strong focus on health, safety, security, and environment can positively contribute to high KAP scores. Notwithstanding the excellent findings, this study also provides a cautionary tale for company health functions against overprescribing of malaria prophylaxis. It demonstrates the need for constant review and audit of adherence to quality criteria. © 2011 International Society of Travel Medicine.

  2. Status of Baltic grey seals: Population assessment and extinction risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin C Harding

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The grey seal (Halichoerus grypus population in the Baltic Sea is recovering after a century of bounty hunting and 3 decades of low fertility rates caused by environmental pollution. A conservative estimate of the population size in 2003 was 19,400 animals, and available data suggest an annual rate of increase of 7.5% since 1990. The growing population has led to increased interactions with the fishery, and demands are being raised for the re-introduction of the hunt. We provide a demographic analysis and a risk assessment of the population, and make recommendations on how to decrease the risk of over exploitation. Although hunting increases the risk of quasi-extinction, the risk can be significantly reduced by the choice of a cautious hunting regime. The least hazardous regimes allow no hunting below a ‘security level’ in population size. Obviously, to implement such a hunting regime detailed knowledge of the population size and growth rate is required. It is not possible to estimate “true” risks for quasi-extinction, but we used an approach where the relative difference for different scenarios can be compared. With a security level at 5,000 females, the population quasi-extinction risk increases 50 fold at an annual hunt of 500 females compared with a scenario with no hunting. The risk of quasi-extinction is very sensitive to declines in the mean growth rate and to increased variance in growth rate. The variance in the population estimates over the last 14 years imply that it would take 9 years to detect a declinefrom 1.075 to 1.027 in the rate of population increase. We also show how the age composition of killed animals influences the impact of the hunt. The overall recommendation is that hunting should be kept to a minimum, carefully documented and accompanied by close population monitoring.

  3. Regulating genetically modified food. Policy trajectories, political culture, and risk perceptions in the U.S., Canada, and EU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlers, Anton E

    2010-09-01

    This paper examines whether national differences in political culture add an explanatory dimension to the formulation of policy in the area of biotechnology, especially with respect to genetically modified food. The analysis links the formulation of protective regulatory policies governing genetically modified food to both country and region-specific differences in uncertainty tolerance levels and risk perceptions in the United States, Canada, and European Union. Based on polling data and document analysis, the findings illustrate that these differences matter. Following a mostly opportunistic risk perception within an environment of high tolerance for uncertainty, policymakers in the United States and Canada modified existing regulatory frameworks that govern genetically modified food in their respective countries. In contrast, the mostly cautious perception of new food technologies and low tolerance for uncertainty among European Union member states has contributed to the creation of elaborate and stringent regulatory policies governing genetically modified food.

  4. ACHIEVEMENT MOTIVATION OF THOSE INDIVIDUALS WITH THE PREDOMINANCE OF INDIVIDUALISTIC / COLLECTIVIST ATTITUDES WHO IS READY TO TAKE RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svetlana Vladimirovna Gutsunaeva

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The article reveals the results of empirical research displaying differences in achievement motivation and willingness to take risks depending on the prevalence of collectivist or individualistic attitudes of a personality. The research may contribute to profound knowledge of influence of the factor of belonging to the culture on individual features. The obtained results indicate that the young people with a predominance of individualistic attitudes are more motivated to achievements and inclined to risk than the young people who are collectivists. However, the results also demonstrate that in some socio-demographic groups collectivists – the representatives of the older generation strive to achievements, although they are more cautious in their behavior. The empirical data can be used in a cross-cultural investigations, the results of the study may be useful in the work of psychologist in predicting behavior and social success of the individual in various spheres of activity.

  5. Risk-weighted optimization for cyclic steam stimulation of water-underlain reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehra, R.K.; Ding, L.Y.; Donnelly, J.K.

    1991-01-01

    The paper describes the procedure that was adopted to develop operating guidelines for the cyclic steam stimulation process in a water underlain oil sands reservoir. The study consisted of three parts: i) The risks associated with fracturing into water sands were quantified by conducting a stochastic simulation; ii) Numerical simulations were conducted to obtain correlations among the cumulative production volumes and six selected operating variables; iii) These correlations were subsequently embodied in the economic model to maximize the profits under different constraints. The study concluded that rather than a unique value, a wide range of operating conditions maximized the project profitability. It recommended that a cautious approach in exploitation of these resources was warranted since the penalty for selecting non-optimal conditions was not high

  6. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants

  7. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-08-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

  8. Risk preferences and aging: The “Certainty Effect” in older adults’ decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mather, Mara; Mazar, Nina; Gorlick, Marissa A.; Lighthall, Nichole R.; Burgeno, Jessica; Schoeke, Andrej; Ariely, Dan

    2013-01-01

    A prevalent stereotype is that people become less risk taking and more cautious as they get older. However, in laboratory studies, findings are mixed and often reveal no age differences. In the current series of experiments, we examined whether age differences in risk seeking are more likely to emerge when choices include a certain option (a sure gain or a sure loss). In four experiments, we found that age differences in risk preferences only emerged when participants were offered a choice between a risky and a certain gamble but not when offered two risky gambles. In particular, Experiments 1 and 2 included only gambles about potential gains. Here, compared with younger adults, older adults preferred a certain gain over a chance to win a larger gain and thus, exhibited more risk aversion in the domain of gains. But in Experiments 3 and 4, when offered the chance to take a small sure loss rather than risking a larger loss, older adults exhibited more risk seeking in the domain of losses than younger adults. Both their greater preference for sure gains and greater avoidance of sure losses suggest that older adults weigh certainty more heavily than younger adults. Experiment 4 also indicates that older adults focus more on positive emotions than younger adults do when considering their options and that this emotional shift can at least partially account for age differences in how much people are swayed by certainty in their choices. PMID:23066800

  9. Surrounding Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Research in insurance and finance was always intersecting although they were originally and generally viewed as separate disciplines. Insurance is about transferring risks between parties such that the burdens of risks are borne by those who can. This makes insurance transactions a beneficial activity for the society. It calls on detection, modelling, valuation, and controlling of risks. One of the main sources of control is diversification of risks and in that respect it becomes an issue in itself to clarify diversifiability of risks. However, many diversifiable risks are not, by nature or by contract design, separable from non-diversifiable risks that are, on the other hand, sometimes traded in financial markets and sometimes not. A key observation is that the economic risk came before the insurance contract: Mother earth destroys and kills incidentally and mercilessly, but the uncertainty of economic consequences can be more or less cleverly distributed by the introduction of an insurance market.

  10. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazu, X.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

  11. Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... cells do not invade nearby tissues or spread. Risk Factors Key Points Factors That are Known to ... chemicals . Factors That are Known to Increase the Risk of Cancer Cigarette Smoking and Tobacco Use Tobacco ...

  12. Technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1998-01-01

    The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)

  13. Technological risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O. [Center of Technology Assessment in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Stuttgart (Germany)

    1998-07-01

    The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)

  14. Climatic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamarre, D.; Favier, R.; Bourg, D.; Marchand, J.P.

    2005-04-01

    The climatic risks are analyzed in this book under the cross-vision of specialists of different domains: philosophy, sociology, economic history, law, geography, climatology and hydrology. The prevention of risks and the precautionary principle are presented first. Then, the relations between climatic risk and geography are analyzed using the notion of territoriality. The territory aspect is in the core of the present day debates about the geography of risks, in particular when the links between climate change and public health are considered. Then the main climatic risks are presented. Droughts and floods are the most damaging ones and the difficulties of prevention-indemnification coupling remain important. (J.S.)

  15. Risk factors for osteoporosis in female patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Munno, O; Mazzantini, M; Delle Sedie, A; Mosca, M; Bombardieri, S

    2004-01-01

    In the last years it has been recognized that patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are at high risk of osteoporosis (OP) and fractures, both occurring through disease-specific (chronic arthritis, reduced physical activity, induction of cytokines promoting bone resorption, renal impairment, endocrine factors) and nondisease-specific mechanisms (sunshine avoidance with consequent vitamin D deficiency, glucocorticoids, immunosuppressants and chronic anticoagulants). Regarding anticoagulants, subcutaneous heparin is crucial against the risk of recurrent thromboembolism or pregnancy loss, specifically in patients with SLE and anti-phospholipid syndrome (APS). Thus heparin-induced OP represents one of the hazards of this treatment, first because heparin must be used long-term and secondly because pregnancy and lactation themselves may predispose to OP and fractures. Current data suggest the use of prophylaxis with calcium and vitamin D in all patients treated with heparin during pregnancy. Nevertheless glucocorticoid-induced OP (GIOP) is considered the most serious risk factor for OP and fractures in SLE patients. All guidelines recommend general measures and supplementation with calcium and vitamin D in all patients. However when considering premenopausal patients, there is no generally recommended treatment. Bisphosphonates, which are considered the first choice therapy for the prevention and treatment of GIOP, should be used 'cautiously' in these patients. Therefore the potential risks and lack of efficacy data on fracture risk reduction in premenopausal patients must be weighed against their proven efficacy in postmenopausal patients.

  16. Colon cancer risk and different HRT formulations: a case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thai Do

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most studies have found no increased risk of colon cancer associated with hormone replacement therapy (HRT, or even a decreased risk. But information about the effects of different HRT preparations is lacking. Methods A case-control study was performed within Germany in collaboration with regional cancer registries and tumor centers. Up to 5 controls were matched to each case of colon cancer. Conditional logistic regression analysis was applied to estimate crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI. Stratified analyses were performed to get an impression of the risk associated with different estrogens and progestins. Results A total of 354 cases of colon cancer were compared with 1422 matched controls. The adjusted overall risk estimate for colon cancer (ColC associated with ever-use of HRT was 0.97 (0.71 – 1.32. No clinically relevant trends for ColC risk were observed with increasing duration of HRT use, or increasing time since first or last HRT use in aggregate. Whereas the overall risk estimates were stable, the numbers in many of the sub-analyses of HRT preparation groups (estrogens and progestins were too small for conclusions. Nevertheless, if the ColC risk estimates are taken at face value, most seemed to be reduced compared with never-use of HRT, but did not vary much across HRT formulation subgroups. In particular, no substantial difference in ColC risk was observed between HRT-containing conjugated equine estrogens (CEE or medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA and other formulations more common in Europe. Conclusion Ever-use of HRT was not associated with an increased risk of colon cancer. In contrary, most risk estimates pointed non-significantly toward a lower ColC risk in HRT ever user. They did not vary markedly among different HRT formulations (estrogens, progestins. However, the small numbers and the overlapping nature of the subgroups suggest cautious interpretation.

  17. Risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

  18. Risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennery, M.; Dupont, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    This article deals with the development of risk management in the gas sector business: why a risk factor legal mention must precede any published financial information? Do gas companies have to face new risks? Is there specific risks bound to gas activities? Why companies want to master their risks? Is it mandatory or just a new habit? Do they expect a real benefit in return? These are the risk management questions that are analyzed in this article which is based on the public communication of 15 gas companies randomly selected over the world. The information comes from their annual reports or from documents available on their web sites. The intention of this document is not to be exhaustive or to make statistics but only to shade light on the risk factors of the gas sector. (J.S.)

  19. The reporting of theoretical health risks by the media: Canadian newspaper reporting of potential blood transmission of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Nadya

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The media play an important role at the interface of science and policy by communicating scientific information to the public and policy makers. In issues of theoretical risk, in which there is scientific uncertainty, the media's role as disseminators of information is particularly important due to the potential to influence public perception of the severity of the risk. In this article we describe how the Canadian print media reported the theoretical risk of blood transmission of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD. Methods We searched 3 newspaper databases for articles published by 6 major Canadian daily newspapers between January 1990 and December 1999. We identified all articles relating to blood transmission of CJD. In duplicate we extracted information from the articles and entered the information into a qualitative software program. We compared the observations obtained from this content analysis with information obtained from a previous policy analysis examining the Canadian blood system's decision-making concerning the potential transfusion transmission of CJD. Results Our search identified 245 relevant articles. We observed that newspapers in one instance accelerated a policy decision, which had important resource and health implication, by communicating information on risk to the public. We also observed that newspapers primarily relied upon expert opinion (47 articles as opposed to published medical evidence (28 articles when communicating risk information. Journalists we interviewed described the challenges of balancing their responsibility to raise awareness of potential health threats with not unnecessarily arousing fear amongst the public. Conclusions Based on our findings we recommend that journalists report information from both expert opinion sources and from published studies when communicating information on risk. We also recommend researchers work more closely with journalists to assist them in identifying

  20. Does antimicrobial usage before meningitis lead to a higher risk of adult postsurgical Acinetobacter baumannii meningitis than that of Enterobacteriaceae meningitis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demiraslan, Hayati; Ulutabanca, Halil; Ercal, Baris Derya; Metan, Gokhan; Alp, Emine

    2016-12-01

    Acinetobacter baumannii and Enterobacteriaceae are two pathogens responsible for postneurosurgical meningitis. The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the factors that influenced the outcomes in patients with postneurosurgical meningitis caused by A. baumannii and Enterobacteriaceae. Patients with post-surgical meningitis were identified from infection control committee charts between 2007 and 2015. Subjects over 16 years old who had positive cerebral spinal fluid cultures for A. baumannii or Enterobacteriaceae were enrolled in the study. Clinical and laboratory data for 30 patients with A. baumannii meningitis were compared with those of 12 patients with Enterobacteriaceae meningitis. The mean age of patients was 51.9 years and 57.1% were male. Eleven patients had comorbidities, the most common being diabetes mellitus. Most patients were due to intracranial haemorrhage (78.6%). The rate of the patients who received an appropriate antimicrobial therapy was 35.7%, and the crude mortality rate was 64.3%. In univariate analysis, previous antibiotic use, an infection before meningitis and mechanical ventilation had an increased risk of A. baumannii meningitis. Moreover, intrathecal antimicrobial use, inappropriate empirical antimicrobial use, antimicrobial resistance and alanine aminotransferase elevation were significantly higher in patients with A. baumannii meningitis than in those with Enterobacteriaceae meningitis. Antimicrobial use before meningitis (8.84 times) and mechanical ventilation (7.28 times) resulted in an increased risk of A. baumannii meningitis. None of the results affected 30-day mortality. Avoidance of unnecessarily prolonged antimicrobial usage may help to prevent a selection of A. baumannii.

  1. Industrial risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1981-01-01

    A brief look is taken at the status of progress, or the lack of it, towards a quantitative approach to the estimation and assessment of risk for several technologies in the United States. The increase of interest in the consideration of comparative risks in decision-making is also discussed. Finally, a recently proposed trial approach to quantitative safety goals for light-water nuclear power reactors is summarized. The approach is divided into two major tasks: the predominantly social and political task of setting safety criteria, and the technical task of estimating the risks and deciding whether the safety criteria have been met. The safety criteria include the following: limits on hazard states within the reactor; limits on risk to the individual; limits on societal risk; a cost-effectiveness criterion as low as reasonably achievable; a small element of risk aversion. (author)

  2. Alcohol consumption and dementia risk: a dose–response meta-analysis of prospective studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Wei; Wang, Huifu; Wan, Yu; Tan, Chenchen; Li, Jieqiong; Tan, Lan; Yu, Jin-Tai

    2017-01-01

    It is widely believed that light-to-moderate alcohol intake may protect against dementia while excessive drinking may instead increase the risk. Nonetheless, these findings need cautious interpretations due to varying methodologies and lack of standard definition, which hindered our transferring into preventative practice. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential dose–response association between alcohol consumption and risk of dementia. A systematic search was conducted in electronic databases to identify relevant studies. Risk estimates were combined using a random-effect model. Eleven studies with 73,330 participants and 4586 cases for all-cause dementia (ACD), five studies with 52,715 participants and 1267 cases for Alzheimer’s dementia (AD) and four studies with 49,535 participants and 542 cases for vascular dementia were included. We observed a nonlinear association between alcohol consumption and ACD risk (p_n_o_n_l_i_n_e_a_r_i_t_y < 0.05). The alcohol dose associated with lower risk of dementia was confined to at most 12.5 g/day, with the risk hitting bottom (RR ≈ 0.9) at roughly 6 g/day. Of note, the ACD risk seemed to be elevated (≈10%) when the dose surpasses certain levels: 23 drinks/week or 38 g/day. For the alcohol type, recommendation for wine is prioritized. The subgroup analysis further indicated that the effect of alcohol may be greater in younger adults (<60 years old) with regard to fighting against dementia. Modest alcohol consumption (≤12.5 g/day) is associated with a reduced risk of dementia with 6 g/day of alcohol conferring a lower risk than other levels while excessive drinking (≥38 g/day) may instead elevate the risk.

  3. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  4. Ultraviolet radiation: effects on risks of prostate cancer and other internal cancers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Samuel J. [Human Genomics Research Group, Institute of Science and Technology in Medicine and Department of Urology, Keele University School of Medicine, University Hospital of North Staffordshire, Hartshill Campus, Stoke-on-Trent, ST4 7PA Staffordshire (United Kingdom); Fryer, Anthony A. [Human Genomics Research Group, Institute of Science and Technology in Medicine and Department of Urology, Keele University School of Medicine, University Hospital of North Staffordshire, Hartshill Campus, Stoke-on-Trent, ST4 7PA Staffordshire (United Kingdom); Strange, Richard C. [Human Genomics Research Group, Institute of Science and Technology in Medicine and Department of Urology, Keele University School of Medicine, University Hospital of North Staffordshire, Hartshill Campus, Stoke-on-Trent, ST4 7PA Staffordshire (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: paa00@keele.ac.uk

    2005-04-01

    Governmental and research agencies worldwide have strongly advocated sun avoidance strategies in an attempt to counter marked increases in skin cancer incidence. Concurrently, there are reports describing widespread Vitamin D{sub 3} deficiency. Because 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D{sub 3}, through interaction with the Vitamin D receptor, exerts pleiotrophic effects, such deficiency might be expected to have clinical consequences. Indeed, various reports indicate that exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exerts a protective effect on development of some common diseases including internal cancers and multiple sclerosis. We describe studies indicating that modest exposure reduces risk of prostate cancer. The effect of UVR is mediated by skin type; at lower levels of exposure a relative inability to effect skin pigmentation is protective presumably because it allows more efficient Vitamin D{sub 3} synthesis. Polymorphic variants in genes associated with pigmentation including melanocyte stimulating hormone receptor and tyrosinase are also associated with prostate cancer risk. Overall, though preliminary and requiring cautious interpretation, these data indicate that moderate UVR exposure together with characteristics linked with less effective tanning confer reduced prostate cancer risk. Clearly, it is important to define safe levels of UVR that do not result in increased risk of skin cancers such as malignant melanoma.

  5. Epidemiology of invasive pulmonary aspergillosis in patients with liver failure: Clinical presentation, risk factors, and outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuan; Yang, Meifang; Hu, Jianhua; Zhao, Hong; Li, Lanjuan

    2018-02-01

    Objective Invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IPA) is a severe and often lethal infection. The possible risk factors, clinical presentation, and treatment of patients with simultaneous liver failure and IPA have received little attention in previous studies. The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiology of IPA in patients with liver failure in an effort to reduce patient mortality. Methods The patients with liver failure (including acute liver failure , sub-acute liver failure , acute-on-chronic liver failure and chronic liver failure) were recruited from 2011 to 2016. The clinical data of these patients were retrieved for the study. Results In total, 1077 patients with liver failure were included in this study. Of the 1077 patients, 53 (4.9%) had IPA. Forty-four (83%) patients with IPA died. Independent risk factors for IPA were male sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.542), hepatorenal syndrome (HR = 2.463), antibiotic use (HR = 4.631), and steroid exposure (HR = 18.615). Conclusions IPA is a fatal complication in patients with liver failure. Male sex, hepatorenal syndrome, antibiotic use, and steroid exposure were independent risk factors for IPA. When patients with liver failure have these risk factors and symptoms of pneumonia such as cough or hemoptysis, clinicians should be cautious about the possibility of IPA.

  6. Setting Priorities in Behavioral Interventions: An Application to Reducing Phishing Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canfield, Casey Inez; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2018-04-01

    Phishing risk is a growing area of concern for corporations, governments, and individuals. Given the evidence that users vary widely in their vulnerability to phishing attacks, we demonstrate an approach for assessing the benefits and costs of interventions that target the most vulnerable users. Our approach uses Monte Carlo simulation to (1) identify which users were most vulnerable, in signal detection theory terms; (2) assess the proportion of system-level risk attributable to the most vulnerable users; (3) estimate the monetary benefit and cost of behavioral interventions targeting different vulnerability levels; and (4) evaluate the sensitivity of these results to whether the attacks involve random or spear phishing. Using parameter estimates from previous research, we find that the most vulnerable users were less cautious and less able to distinguish between phishing and legitimate emails (positive response bias and low sensitivity, in signal detection theory terms). They also accounted for a large share of phishing risk for both random and spear phishing attacks. Under these conditions, our analysis estimates much greater net benefit for behavioral interventions that target these vulnerable users. Within the range of the model's assumptions, there was generally net benefit even for the least vulnerable users. However, the differences in the return on investment for interventions with users with different degrees of vulnerability indicate the importance of measuring that performance, and letting it guide interventions. This study suggests that interventions to reduce response bias, rather than to increase sensitivity, have greater net benefit. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Ultraviolet radiation: effects on risks of prostate cancer and other internal cancers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Samuel J.; Fryer, Anthony A.; Strange, Richard C.

    2005-01-01

    Governmental and research agencies worldwide have strongly advocated sun avoidance strategies in an attempt to counter marked increases in skin cancer incidence. Concurrently, there are reports describing widespread Vitamin D 3 deficiency. Because 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D 3 , through interaction with the Vitamin D receptor, exerts pleiotrophic effects, such deficiency might be expected to have clinical consequences. Indeed, various reports indicate that exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exerts a protective effect on development of some common diseases including internal cancers and multiple sclerosis. We describe studies indicating that modest exposure reduces risk of prostate cancer. The effect of UVR is mediated by skin type; at lower levels of exposure a relative inability to effect skin pigmentation is protective presumably because it allows more efficient Vitamin D 3 synthesis. Polymorphic variants in genes associated with pigmentation including melanocyte stimulating hormone receptor and tyrosinase are also associated with prostate cancer risk. Overall, though preliminary and requiring cautious interpretation, these data indicate that moderate UVR exposure together with characteristics linked with less effective tanning confer reduced prostate cancer risk. Clearly, it is important to define safe levels of UVR that do not result in increased risk of skin cancers such as malignant melanoma

  8. Experiences gained in implementing a broad-based risk-informed application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schinzel, G.E.

    2004-01-01

    The South Texas Project was granted a first-of-kind exemption from special treatment requirements contained in 10-CFR Parts 21, 50, and 100 in August 2001. Since that time, South Texas has pursued a cautious, deliberate approach to implement these risk-informed exemption allowances. Over the past two years, South Texas has gained a unique insight into the challenges and benefits that exist in pursuing a broad-based risk-informed application. The American nuclear industry is currently pursuing similar capabilities through proposed rule 10-CFR 50.69 which is scheduled for NRC final review and approval in the July, 2004 time-frame. This proposed rule closely resembles the approach taken by South Texas in the exemption process and the allowances granted. For nuclear utilities that wish to pursue a similar broad-based risk-informed application, a well-conceived strategic approach is needed to prioritize the implementation activities as well as engage stake-holders in the implementation process. Cultural and communication challenges exist which must be addressed and effectively overcome. The goal of this paper is to communicate these challenges to the attendees, inform attendees of the safety and economic benefits to be recognized through this risk-informed approach, and to provide insight into continuing application opportunities that were not readily apparent when the broad-based exemption was originally conceived. This paper and presentation will be beneficial for both domestic and international attendees, as well as for personnel with utility or regulatory backgrounds. (author)

  9. Chronic Infections of the Urinary Tract and Bladder Cancer Risk: a Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson-Otunu, Oghenetejiri; Akhtar, Saeed

    2016-01-01

    Literature on the relationship between recurrent urinary tract infections and urinary bladder carcinoma risk has been inconsistent. Therefore, we carried out this systematic review of observational studies to ascertain if there is any association between chronic urinary tract infection and urinary bladder carcinoma. A total of 10 databases were searched using Boolean: CINAHL, PUBMED, Google Scholar, Medline, Science Direct, SCIRUS, Cochrane, UK PubMed central, NHS evidence and WHO-website. The search yielded an initial hit of 3,518 articles and after screening and critical appraisal, seven studies were included for this review. Four articles reported an association between chronic urinary tract infections and bladder cancer while three concluded a weak or no association at least in one gender. Main findings in this review were that most of the studies reported an association between chronic urinary tract infections and bladder cancer risk. However, inferences about the causal association between chronic urinary tract infections and bladder cancer risk should be drawn cautiously considering the methodological limitations of case-control studies included in this review. Therefore, more empirical evidence is needed to determine the causal nature of relationships between chronic urinary tract infections and bladder cancer risk.

  10. The risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olin, N.; Delmestre, A.; Baumont, G.; El Jammal, M.H.; Brucker, G.; Mettendorf, M.; Kervern, G.Y.; Amalberti, R.; Digoin, A.; Lagrange, V.; Duval, D.; Setbon, M.; Godard, O.; Lagadec, P.; Heriard Dubreuil, G.; Miserey, Y.; Delalonde, J.C.; Solomarska, E.

    2006-01-01

    In this issue is studied the risk analysis in nuclear industry. The different chapters are the risk, its perception and its control; the measure of the perception of risks; misunderstanding, a limit for transparency policy. About the running systems on risk, the practical applications of research on the science of danger are detailed; human factors approaches, errors and risk is tackled and also human factors at the centre of safety progress by taking expert methods and transforming them into practical tools for managers; an example is given through the technological risks analysis rule in Total industrial group, or how harmonizing the methods to increase the performance; Some thoughts about the risks and its perception, the principle of precaution, the emergencies and breaking situations on the borderline of chaos; the civil society at the heart of the governance of activities generating risks; two stories, one is about the difficulties to get information, including about the passage of the cloud from Chernobyl, the second one is the account of an inhabitant of Chernobyl. (N.C.)

  11. Risk determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The issue gives a survey of the legal, theological, statistical and health aspects of risk determination. It includes the opinions of physicians, epidemiologists, mathematicians, toxicologists, biologists, theologists and physicists who explain and illustrate the term of risk from their perspective. (orig./DG) [de

  12. Risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magne, L.

    1999-01-01

    There is always a risk of an accident occurring at a nuclear power plant, however small. The problem lies in estimating the probability of it occurring. The method of probabilistic safety assessment provides this estimate, and by identifying the sources of potential risk, makes it possible to prevent them from occurring. It is not, however, a substitute for other decision-making processes. (author)

  13. Embracing risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross Cagan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available I entered the science field because I imagined that scientists were society's “professional risk takers”, that they like surfing out on the edge. I understood that a lot of science – perhaps even most science – has to be a solid exploration of partly understood phenomena. But any science that confronts a difficult problem has to start with risk. Most people are at least a bit suspicious of risk, and scientists such as myself are no exception. Recently, risk-taking has been under attack financially, but this Editorial is not about that. I am writing about the long view and the messages we send to our trainees. I am Senior Associate Dean of the graduate school at Mount Sinai and have had the privilege to discuss these issues with the next generation of scientists, for whom I care very deeply. Are we preparing you to embrace risk?

  14. Perceived risks and benefits of hippotherapy among parents of children currently engaged in or waiting for hippotherapy: A pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Léveillé, Audrey; Rochette, Annie; Mainville, Carolyne

    2017-04-01

    Explore the perceived risks and benefits of hippotherapy among parents of children currently engaged in or waiting rehabilitation using hippotherapy. Phenomenological qualitative exploratory pilot study. An interview guide validated by experts was used to conduct the interviews. Summaries were written to capture first impressions. One team member coded the transcripts and the coding was validated by the research team through discussion until consensus was reached. The average age of the participants (n = 4) was 37.3 ± 6.6 years. The few risks they perceived related to physical injuries. Lack of knowledge of contraindications, lack of fear, minimization of risks, and risk-attenuation factors also emerged as important themes. Benefits accounted for a large part of the content of the interviews and were grouped under 13 themes, including motor and postural control, enjoyment and the development of a special relationship. Minimization of the perceived risks compared to the numerous perceived benefits could create clinical issues such as the client putting self at risk of injuries (e.g., bites, falls, and kicks) if not cautious enough or complications insufficiently prevented, which suggests the need to develop educational activities for an informed consent to this type of rehabilitation.

  15. Nuclear risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levenson, M.

    1989-01-01

    The title of our session, Nuclear Risk Versus Other Power Options, is provocative. It is also a title with different meanings to different people. To the utility chief executive officer, nuclear power is a high-risk financial undertaking because of political and economic barriers to cost recovery. To the utility dispatcher, it is a high-risk future power source since plant completion and start-up dates can be delayed for very long times due to uncertain legal and political issues. To the environmentalist, concerned about global effects such as greenhouse and acid rain, nuclear power is a relatively low risk energy source. To the financial people, nuclear power is a cash cow turned sour because of uncertainties as to what new plants will cost and whether they will even be allowed to operate. The statistics on risk are known and the results of probability risk assessment calculations of risks are known. The challenge is not to make nuclear power safer, it is already one of the safest, if not the safest, source of power currently available. The challenge is to find a way to communicate this to the public

  16. Risk theory

    CERN Document Server

    Schmidli, Hanspeter

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an overview of classical actuarial techniques, including material that is not readily accessible elsewhere such as the Ammeter risk model and the Markov-modulated risk model. Other topics covered include utility theory, credibility theory, claims reserving and ruin theory. The author treats both theoretical and practical aspects and also discusses links to Solvency II. Written by one of the leading experts in the field, these lecture notes serve as a valuable introduction to some of the most frequently used methods in non-life insurance. They will be of particular interest to graduate students, researchers and practitioners in insurance, finance and risk management.

  17. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2000-01-01

    The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants

  18. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2000-08-01

    The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants.

  19. Building reliable evidence from real-world data: methods, cautiousness and recommendations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Corrao

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Routinely stored information on healthcare utilisation in everyday clinical practice has proliferated over the past several decades. There is, however, some reluctance on the part of many health professionals to use observational data to support healthcare decisions, especially when data are derived from large databases. Challenges in conducting observational studies based on electronic databases include concern about the adequacy of study design and methods to minimise the effect of both misclassifications (in the absence of direct assessments of exposure and outcome validity and confounding (in the absence of randomisation. This paper points out issues that may compromise the validity of such studies, and approaches to managing analytic challenges. First, strategies of sampling within a large cohort, as an alternative to analysing the full cohort, will be presented. Second, methods for controlling outcome and exposure misclassifications will be described. Third, several techniques that take into account both measured and unmeasured confounders will also be presented. Fourth, some considerations regarding random uncertainty in the framework of observational studies using healthcare utilisation data will be discussed. Finally, some recommendations for good research practice are listed in this paper. The aim is to provide researchers with a methodological framework, while commenting on the value of new techniques for more advanced users.

  20. A paradox in the electronic partition function or how to be cautious with mathematics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miranda, E.N. [CRICYT - CONICET, Mendoza (Argentina); Departamento de Fisica, Universidad Nacional de San Luis, San Luis (Argentina)

    2001-09-01

    When the electronic partition functions of atoms or molecules are evaluated in textbooks, only the contribution of the ground state is considered. The excited states' contribution is argued to be negligible. However, a closer look shows that the partition function diverges if such states are taken into account. This paper shows that the blind use of mathematics is the reason behind this odd behaviour. (author)

  1. Governments should implement energy-efficiency standards and labels--cautiously

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiel, Stephen; McMahon, James E.

    2003-01-01

    Energy-efficiency standards and labels can be the most effective long-term energy-efficiency policy any government can implement. This paper describes: (1) the benefits that can be obtained through this policy, (2) which countries are implementing standards and labels and for which products, (3) the processes they are using at each step along the way including the reasons why each step must be done carefully and thoroughly, and (4) the relationship of standard-setting and labeling to other energy-efficiency policies

  2. 'Development as Freedom': Moving Economics Beyond Commodities - The Cautious Boldness of Amartya Sen

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.R. Gasper (Des)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractAbstract: Amartya Sen’s 1998 Nobel Prize and his recent synthesis of his views in Development as Freedom provide an opportunity to assess his intellectual contribution and style. The paper identifies entitlements analysis and capabilities analysis as the areas which make him stand out

  3. On New Cautious Structural Reliability Models in the Framework of imprecise Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Utkin, Lev V.; Kozine, Igor

    2010-01-01

    models and gen-eralizing conventional ones to imprecise probabili-ties. The theoretical setup employed for this purpose is imprecise statistical reasoning (Walley 1991), whose general framework is provided by upper and lower previsions (expectations). The appeal of this theory is its ability to capture......Uncertainty of parameters in engineering design has been modeled in different frameworks such as inter-val analysis, fuzzy set and possibility theories, ran-dom set theory and imprecise probability theory. The authors of this paper for many years have been de-veloping new imprecise reliability...... both aleatory (stochas-tic) and epistemic uncertainty and the flexibility with which information can be represented. The previous research of the authors related to generalizing structural reliability models to impre-cise statistical measures is summarized in Utkin & Kozine (2002) and Utkin (2004...

  4. Ohio Schools Cautiously Rebuild: Uncertainty in State and Local Funds Affects Strategies. Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patton, Wendy

    2015-01-01

    Policy Matters Ohio periodically surveys schools about fiscal conditions and operational strategies. The Ohio Association of School Business Officials provided a link to such a survey in their newsletter of December 2014 through February 2015. Fifty-three respondents, representing 8.6 percent of districts and including representatives from all…

  5. Sustainable rangeland management, economic growth, and a cautious role for the SRM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Interest in the art and science of rangeland management increased dramatically during the 20th century and it was out of this interest that the profession of rangeland management was born. As public interest in rangeland management grew, so did the number, breadth, and depth of rangeland management ...

  6. Education and Training for Sustainable Tourism: Problems, Possibilities and Cautious First Steps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gough, Stephen; Scott, William

    1999-01-01

    Advances a possible theoretical approach to education for sustainable tourism and describes a small-scale research project based on this approach. Seeks to integrate education for sustainable tourism into an established management curriculum using an innovative technique based on the idea of an adaptive concept. (Author/CCM)

  7. Cautiously utopian goals : Philosophical analyses of climate change objectives and sustainability targets

    OpenAIRE

    Baard, Patrik

    2016-01-01

    In this thesis, the framework within which long-term goals are set and subsequently achieved or approached is analyzed. Sustainable development and climate change are areas in which goals have tobe set despite uncertainties. The analysis is divided into the normative motivations for setting such goals, what forms of goals could be set given the empirical and normative uncertainties, and how tomanage doubts regarding achievability or values after a goal has been set. Paper I discusses a set of...

  8. Cautious but Committed: Moving Toward Adaptive Planning and Operation Strategies for Renewable Energy's Wildlife Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köppel, Johann; Dahmen, Marie; Helfrich, Jennifer; Schuster, Eva; Bulling, Lea

    2014-10-01

    Wildlife planning for renewable energy must cope with the uncertainties of potential wildlife impacts. Unfortunately, the environmental policies which instigate renewable energy and those which protect wildlife are not coherently aligned—creating a green versus green dilemma. Thus, climate mitigation efforts trigger renewable energy development, but then face substantial barriers from biodiversity protection instruments and practices. This article briefly reviews wind energy and wildlife interactions, highlighting the lively debated effects on bats. Today, planning and siting of renewable energy are guided by the precautionary principle in an attempt to carefully address wildlife challenges. However, this planning attitude creates limitations as it struggles to negotiate the aforementioned green versus green dilemma. More adaptive planning and management strategies and practices hold the potential to reconcile these discrepancies to some degree. This adaptive approach is discussed using facets of case studies from policy, planning, siting, and operational stages of wind energy in Germany and the United States, with one case showing adaptive planning in action for solar energy as well. This article attempts to highlight the benefits of more adaptive approaches as well as the possible shortcomings, such as reduced planning security for renewable energy developers. In conclusion, these studies show that adaptive planning and operation strategies can be designed to supplement and enhance the precautionary principle in wildlife planning for green energy.

  9. A Case for Cautious Optimism? Active Citizenship and the Australian Civics and Citizenship Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Andrew; Bentley, Brendan

    2017-01-01

    In late 2013 a new curriculum for Civics and Citizenship education was published by the Australian Curriculum and Assessment Reporting Authority for use in Australian schools. In line with previous curricular initiatives concerning education for citizenship in Australia a key rationale behind the new subject is the education of "active…

  10. Commercial Lysogeny Broth culture media and oxidative stress: a cautious tale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezraty, Benjamin; Henry, Camille; Hérisse, Marion; Denamur, Erick; Barras, Frédéric

    2014-09-01

    Lysogeny Broth (LB), most often misnamed Luria-Bertani medium, ranks among the most commonly used growth media in microbiology. Surprisingly, we observed that oxidative levels vary with the commercial origin of the LB ready to use powder. Indeed, growth on solid media of Escherichia coli and Salmonella derivatives lacking antioxidative stress defenses, such as oxyR mutant devoid of the H2O2-sensing transcriptional activator or Hpx(-) strains lacking catalases and peroxidases, exhibit different phenotypes on LB-Sigma or LB-Difco. Using gene fusion and exogenously added catalase, we found that LB-Sigma contains higher levels of H2O2 than LB-Difco. Also we observed differences in population counts of 82 clinical and environmental isolates of E. coli, depending on the LB used. Further investigations revealed a significant influence of the commercial origin of agar as well. Besides being a warning to the wide population of LB users, our observations provide researchers in the oxidative stress field with a tool to appreciate the severity of mutations in antioxidative stress defenses. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Merit-Based Incentive Payment System: Meaningful Changes in the Final Rule Brings Cautious Optimism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manchikanti, Laxmaiah; Helm Ii, Standiford; Calodney, Aaron K; Hirsch, Joshua A

    2017-01-01

    The Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act of 2015 (MACRA) eliminated the flawed Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) act formula - a longstanding crucial issue of concern for health care providers and Medicare beneficiaries. MACRA also included a quality improvement program entitled, "The Merit-Based Incentive Payment System, or MIPS." The proposed rule of MIPS sought to streamline existing federal quality efforts and therefore linked 4 distinct programs into one. Three existing programs, meaningful use (MU), Physician Quality Reporting System (PQRS), value-based payment (VBP) system were merged with the addition of Clinical Improvement Activity category. The proposed rule also changed the name of MU to Advancing Care Information, or ACI. ACI contributes to 25% of composite score of the four programs, PQRS contributes 50% of the composite score, while VBP system, which deals with resource use or cost, contributes to 10% of the composite score. The newest category, Improvement Activities or IA, contributes 15% to the composite score. The proposed rule also created what it called a design incentive that drives movement to delivery system reform principles with the inclusion of Advanced Alternative Payment Models (APMs).Following the release of the proposed rule, the medical community, as well as Congress, provided substantial input to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS),expressing their concern. American Society of Interventional Pain Physicians (ASIPP) focused on 3 important aspects: delay the implementation, provide a 3-month performance period, and provide ability to submit meaningful quality measures in a timely and economic manner. The final rule accepted many of the comments from various organizations, including several of those specifically emphasized by ASIPP, with acceptance of 3-month reporting period, as well as the ability to submit non-MIPS measures to improve real quality and make the system meaningful. CMS also provided a mechanism for physicians to avoid penalties for non-reporting with reporting of just a single patient. In summary, CMS has provided substantial flexibility with mechanisms to avoid penalties, reporting for 90 continuous days, increasing the low volume threshold, changing the reporting burden and data thresholds and, finally, coordination between performance categories. The final rule has made MIPS more meaningful with bonuses for exceptional performance, the ability to report for 90 days, and to report on 50% of the patients in 2017 and 60% of the patients in 2018. The final rule also reduced the quality measures to 6, including only one outcome or high priority measure with elimination of cross cutting measure requirement. In addition, the final rule reduced the burden of ACI, improved the coordination of performance, reduced improvement activities burden from 60 points to 40 points, and finally improved coordination between performance categories. Multiple concerns remain regarding the reduction in scoring for quality improvement in future years, increase in proportion of MIPS scoring for resource use utilizing flawed, claims based methodology and the continuation of the disproportionate importance of ACI, an expensive program that can be onerous for providers which in many ways has not lived up to its promise. Key words: Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act of 2015, merit-based incentive payment system, quality performance measures, resource use, improvement activities, advancing care information performance category.

  12. A paradox in the electronic partition function or how to be cautious with mathematics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miranda, E.N.

    2001-01-01

    When the electronic partition functions of atoms or molecules are evaluated in textbooks, only the contribution of the ground state is considered. The excited states' contribution is argued to be negligible. However, a closer look shows that the partition function diverges if such states are taken into account. This paper shows that the blind use of mathematics is the reason behind this odd behaviour. (author)

  13. Cautious but committed: moving toward adaptive planning and operation strategies for renewable energy's wildlife implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köppel, Johann; Dahmen, Marie; Helfrich, Jennifer; Schuster, Eva; Bulling, Lea

    2014-10-01

    Wildlife planning for renewable energy must cope with the uncertainties of potential wildlife impacts. Unfortunately, the environmental policies which instigate renewable energy and those which protect wildlife are not coherently aligned-creating a green versus green dilemma. Thus, climate mitigation efforts trigger renewable energy development, but then face substantial barriers from biodiversity protection instruments and practices. This article briefly reviews wind energy and wildlife interactions, highlighting the lively debated effects on bats. Today, planning and siting of renewable energy are guided by the precautionary principle in an attempt to carefully address wildlife challenges. However, this planning attitude creates limitations as it struggles to negotiate the aforementioned green versus green dilemma. More adaptive planning and management strategies and practices hold the potential to reconcile these discrepancies to some degree. This adaptive approach is discussed using facets of case studies from policy, planning, siting, and operational stages of wind energy in Germany and the United States, with one case showing adaptive planning in action for solar energy as well. This article attempts to highlight the benefits of more adaptive approaches as well as the possible shortcomings, such as reduced planning security for renewable energy developers. In conclusion, these studies show that adaptive planning and operation strategies can be designed to supplement and enhance the precautionary principle in wildlife planning for green energy.

  14. Ohio Schools Cautiously Rebuild: Uncertainty of State and Local Funds Affects Quality. Budget. Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patton, Wendy

    2015-01-01

    Policy Matters Ohio periodically surveys schools about fiscal conditions and operational strategies. The Ohio Association of School Business Officials provided a link to such a survey in their newsletter of December 2014 through February 2015. Fifty-three respondents, representing 8.6 percent of districts and including representatives from all…

  15. Risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Catherine J; Connors, K C; Sheehan, Timothy J; Vaughan, James S

    2005-06-01

    Minimize surprises on your financial statement by adopting a model for integrated risk management that: Examines interrelationships among operations, investments, and financing. Incorporates concepts of the capital asset pricing model to manage unexpected volatility

  16. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  17. Technological risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dierkes, M; Coppock, R; Edwards, S

    1980-01-01

    The book begins with brief statements from representatives of political organizations. Part II presents an overview of the discussion about the control and management of technological progress. Parts III and IV discuss important elements in citizens' perception of technological risks and the development of consensus on how to deal with them. In Part V practical problems in the application of risk assessment and management, and in Part VI additional points are summarized.

  18. Risk Appetite

    OpenAIRE

    Berlinger, Edina; Váradi, Kata

    2015-01-01

    Our article firstly examines to what extent empirical research confirms the model of decision making based on a stable utility function. To this end, we have summarised the fundamental theoretical correlations relating to risk appetite, then went on to present the main results of behavioural research, with special focus on prospect theory, the correlations between socio-demographic and cognitive characteristics and risk propensity, as well as other influencing physical, mental and psychologic...

  19. Technological risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dierkes, M.; Coppock, R.; Edwards, S.

    1980-01-01

    The book begins with brief statements from representatives of political organizations. Part II presents an overview of the discussion about the control and management of technological progress. Parts III and IV discuss important elements in citizens' perception of technological risks and the development of consensus on how to deal with them. In Part V practical problems in the application of risk assessment and management, and in Part VI additional points are summarized. (DG)

  20. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  1. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  2. Engineering risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.; Werner, W.

    1991-01-01

    The book describes the methods of risk analysis and explains the procedures and results of a number of studies including the German Risk Study, Phase B and NUREG-1150. After defining basic concepts the methods of risk analysis are treated. In the field of nuclear energy studies for light water, fast breeder and high temperature reactors and for the nuclear fuel cycle are discussed; their relevant results are presented. Additionally, precursors to severe accidents are dealt with. Risk studies for process plants are described; their objectives and methods of analysis are examined. Furthermore, their approaches are compared with that of the German Risk Study, Phase A. Risk comparisons for nuclear, conventional and renewable energy sources are critically examined. Technical and legal aspects of the safety evaluation for nuclear power plants in the FRG and the potential of the combined use of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches are discussed. The book concludes with an overview of probabilistic safety goals in different countries. (orig.) With 52 figs

  3. The risks of measuring risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, G.G.

    1982-01-01

    The author gives an overview of the Thirteenth Rochester International Conference on Environmental Toxicity, which examined both the logical soundness of the inference of risk and the validity of the environmental evidence of damage. Examples are itemized, concise introductions are given for each published paper in the proceedings, and an appropriate keynote is given by way of stating the established and alternate approach to risk measurement. The volume is described as ''more than a review of advance in measurement of risks to health . . . (but also) a landmark of a change in scientific opinion.''

  4. Use of Insulin and Insulin Analogs and Risk of Cancer — Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlstad, Øystein; Starup-Linde, Jacob; Vestergaard, Peter; Hjellvik, Vidar; T. Bazelier, Marloes; K. Schmidt, Marjanka; Andersen, Morten; Auvinen, Anssi; Haukka, Jari; Furu, Kari; de Vries, Frank; L. de Bruin, Marie

    2014-01-01

    Background: An association of insulin use and risk of cancer has been reported but evidence is conflicting and methodological issues have been identified. Objective: To summarize results regarding insulin use and cancer risk by a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort and case-control studies examining risk of cancer associated with insulin use in patients with diabetes. Data Sources: Systematic literature search in 5 databases: PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus and Cochrane Library. Study Eligibility Criteria (PICOS): Population: diabetes patients. Exposure: Users of any exogenous insulin. Comparison: Diabetes patients with or without use of antidiabetic drugs. Outcome: Any incident cancer. Study Design: Cohort and case-control studies. Results: 42 eligible studies examined risk of any cancer and 27 site-specific cancers. Results of individual studies were heterogeneous. Meta-analyses were significant for: Insulin vs No Insulin: Increased risk for pancreas, liver, kidney, stomach and respiratory cancer, decreased risk for prostate cancer. Insulin vs Non-Insulin Antidiabetics: Increased risk for any, pancreatic and colorectal cancer. Glargine vs Non-Glargine Insulin: Increased risk for breast cancer, decreased risk for colon cancer. Limitations: Few studies available for most cancer sites and exposure contrasts, and few assess effect of dose and duration of exposure. Methodological issues in several studies. Availability of confounders. Conclusions: Insulin use was associated with risk of cancer at several sites. Cautious interpretation of results is warranted as methodological issues and limitations in several of the included studies have been identified. Choice of study design may have a profound effect on estimated cancer risk. PMID:24215311

  5. Visualizing risks in cancer communication: A systematic review of computer-supported visual aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stellamanns, Jan; Ruetters, Dana; Dahal, Keshav; Schillmoeller, Zita; Huebner, Jutta

    2017-08-01

    Health websites are becoming important sources for cancer information. Lay users, patients and carers seek support for critical decisions, but they are prone to common biases when quantitative information is presented. Graphical representations of risk data can facilitate comprehension, and interactive visualizations are popular. This review summarizes the evidence on computer-supported graphs that present risk data and their effects on various measures. The systematic literature search was conducted in several databases, including MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL. Only studies with a controlled design were included. Relevant publications were carefully selected and critically appraised by two reviewers. Thirteen studies were included. Ten studies evaluated static graphs and three dynamic formats. Most decision scenarios were hypothetical. Static graphs could improve accuracy, comprehension, and behavioural intention. But the results were heterogeneous and inconsistent among the studies. Dynamic formats were not superior or even impaired performance compared to static formats. Static graphs show promising but inconsistent results, while research on dynamic visualizations is scarce and must be interpreted cautiously due to methodical limitations. Well-designed and context-specific static graphs can support web-based cancer risk communication in particular populations. The application of dynamic formats cannot be recommended and needs further research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. SPECIAL SECTION: Perspectives of the Scientific Community on the Status of Ecological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power; Adams

    1997-11-01

    / Views from a wide variety of practicing environmental professionals on the current status of ecological risk assessment (ERA) indicate consensus and divergence of opinion on the utility and practice of risk assessment. Central to the debate were the issues of whether ERA appropriately incorporates ecological and scientific principle into its conceptual paradigm. Advocates argue that ERA effectively does both, noting that much of the fault detractors find with the process has more to do with its practice than its purpose. Critics argue that failure to validate ERA predictions and the tendency to over-simplify ecological principles compromise the integrity of ERA and may lead to misleading advice on the appropriate responses to environmental problems. All authors felt that many improvements could be made, including validation, better definition of the ecological questions and boundaries of ERA, improved harmonization of selected methods, and improvements in the knowledge base. Despite identified deficiencies, most authors felt that ERA was a useful process undergoing evolutionary changes that will inevitably determine the range of environmental problems to which it can be appropriately applied. The views expressed give ERA a cautious vote of approval and highlight many of the critical strengths and weaknesses in one of our most important environmental assessment tools.KEY WORDS: Ecological risk assessment; Ecology; Probability

  7. Prospective study of major dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, P; Hu, F B; Hansen, H; Wolk, A

    2001-12-15

    A number of prospective cohort studies have examined the relations of individual dietary variables to risk of colorectal cancer. Few studies have addressed the broader eating patterns that reflect many dietary exposures working together. Using data from a prospective study of 61,463 women, with an average follow-up period of 9.6 years (between 1987 and 1998) and 460 incident cases of colorectal cancer, the authors conducted a factor analysis to identify and examine major dietary patterns in relation to colorectal cancer risk. Using proportional hazards regression to estimate relative risks, the authors found no clear association between a "Western," "healthy," or "drinker" dietary pattern and colorectal cancer risk. However, the data suggested that consuming low amounts of foods that constitute a "healthy" dietary pattern may be associated with increased risks of colon and rectal cancers. An inverse association with the "healthy" dietary pattern was found among women under age 50 years, although the number of cancers in this age group was limited and interpretation of this finding should be cautious. In this age group, relative risks for women in increasing quintiles of the "healthy" dietary pattern, compared with the lowest quintile, were 0.74 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.41, 1.31), 0.69 (95% CI: 0.39, 1.24), 0.59 (95% CI: 0.32, 1.07), and 0.45 (95% CI: 0.23, 0.88) (p for trend = 0.03). The role of overall eating patterns in predicting colorectal cancer risk requires further investigation.

  8. Risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dombrowsky, Wolf R.; Kiel Univ.

    2009-01-01

    The study on risk communication identifies the deficiencies concerning empirical and theoretical knowledge on objective radiation hazards of the acting personnel (managers, politicians, jurists, etc.) in administrations, governmental agencies, and business management. This is especially problematic with respect to emergency planning and estimations concerning the public behavior. The incident/accident information in Germany is discussed based on the legislative regulations revealing the controversial perception between industry, legislative and public interest. Further topics include the meandering of the modern safety semantics and the public opinion concerning catastrophic risk.

  9. Minimizing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.

    1991-01-01

    This article discusses ways to reduce the economic risk of independent energy projects. The topics of the article include risk categorization into areas of property, boiler and machinery, business income, and general liability, choosing a broker, choosing an insurer, and helping an insurer develop the best portfolio for the project. The author feels that attention to the guidelines for the right insurance coverage is as vital to a plant's economic stability as attention to the details of the blueprints is to its physical stability

  10. Risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

  11. A Systematic Approach to Discussing Active Surveillance with Patients with Low-risk Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehdaie, Behfar; Assel, Melissa; Benfante, Nicole; Malhotra, Deepak; Vickers, Andrew

    2017-06-01

    Physicians report difficulty convincing patients with prostate cancer about the merits of active surveillance (AS); as a result, a majority of patients unnecessarily choose to undergo radical treatment. To develop and evaluate a systematic approach for physicians to counsel patients with low-risk prostate cancer to increase acceptance of AS. A systematic counseling approach was developed and piloted in one clinic. Then five surgeons participated in a 1-h training session in which they learned about the approach. A total of 1003 patients with Gleason 3+3 prostate cancer were included in the study. We compared AS rates for 761 patients who were counseled over a 24-mo period before the training intervention with AS rates for 242 patients who were counseled over a 12-mo period afterwards, controlling for temporal trends and case mix. A systematic approach for communicating the merits of AS using appropriate framing techniques derived from principles studied by negotiation scholars. The rate of AS acceptance by patients for management of low-risk prostate cancer. In the pilot phase, 81 of 86 patients (94%) accepted AS after counseling by the physician who developed the counseling approach. In the subsequent study, the cohort for the training intervention comprised 1003 consecutive patients, 80% of whom met the Epstein criteria for very low-risk disease. The proportion of patients who selected AS increased from 69% before the training intervention to 81% afterwards. After adjusting for time trends and case mix, the rate of AS after the intervention was 9.1% higher (95% confidence interval -0.4% to 19.4%) than expected, a relative reduction of approximately 30% in the risk of unnecessary curative treatment. A systematic approach to counseling can be taught to physicians in a 1-h lecture. We found evidence that even this minimal intervention can decrease overtreatment. Our novel approach offers a framework to help address cancer screening-related overtreatment that occurs

  12. Perceived Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ost, David H.

    1995-01-01

    Perceived risk is a function of information, knowledge, values, and perception. This exercise is designed to illustrate that in many situations there is no correct answer, only best-alternative choices. The exercise has five parts in which students work in groups of five. (LZ)

  13. Swallowing Tablets and Capsules Increases the Risk of Penetration and Aspiration in Patients with Stroke-Induced Dysphagia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiele, Julia T; Penner, Heike; Schneider, Hendrik; Quinzler, Renate; Reich, Gabriele; Wezler, Nikolai; Micol, William; Oster, Peter; Haefeli, Walter E

    2015-10-01

    We evaluated the prevalence of difficulties swallowing solid dosage forms in patients with stroke-induced dysphagia and whether swallowing tablets/capsules increases their risk of penetration and aspiration. Concurrently, we explored whether routinely performed assessment tests help identify patients at risk. Using video endoscopy, we evaluated how 52 patients swallowed four different placebos (round, oval, and oblong tablets and a capsule) with texture-modified water (TMW, pudding consistency) and milk and rated their swallowing performance according to the Penetration Aspiration Scale (PAS). Additionally, Daniels Test, Bogenhausener Dysphagiescore, Scandinavian Stroke Scale, Barthel Index, and Tinetti's Mobility Test were conducted. A substantial proportion of the patients experienced severe difficulties swallowing solid oral dosage forms (TMW: 40.4 %, milk: 43.5 %). Compared to the administration of TMW/milk alone, the placebos increased the PAS values in the majority of the patients (TMW: median PAS from 1.5 to 2.0; milk: median PAS from 1.5 to 2.5, each p value <0.0001) and residue values were significantly higher (p < 0.05). Whereas video-endoscopic examination reliably identified patients with difficulties swallowing medication, neither patients' self-evaluation nor one of the routinely performed bedside tests did. Therefore, before video-endoscopic evaluation, many drugs were modified unnecessarily and 20.8 % of these were crushed inadequately, although switching to another dosage form or drug would have been possible. Hence, safety and effectiveness of swallowing tablets and capsules should be evaluated routinely in video-endoscopic examinations, tablets/capsules should rather be provided with TMW than with milk, and the appropriateness of "non per os except medication" orders for dysphagic stroke patients should be questioned.

  14. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  15. The Relationship Between Pregnancy Prevention and STI/HIV Prevention and Sexual Risk Behavior Among American Indian Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rink, Elizabeth; FourStar, Kristofer; Anastario, Michael P

    2017-01-01

    We examined the relationship between American Indian men's attitudes toward pregnancy prevention, STI/HIV prevention, and sexual risk behavior. Attention was given to: (1) attitudes and intentions to use condoms and sexual risk behavior; (2) STI/HIV prevention characteristics and sexual risk behavior; (3) attitudes toward abstinence and monogamy and sexual risk behavior; and (4) decision-making in relationships and sexual risk behavior. Our sample included 120 heterosexual American Indian men aged 18 to 24 living on a reservation. Data were collected during in-depth interviews. A community-based participatory research framework was used to ensure the relevancy and acceptability of the study given the sensitivity of the topic. Results demonstrated that attitudinal factors were associated with sexual risk behavior, particularly inconsistent condom use. Attitudes associated with consistent condom use suggested greater levels of positive dispositions toward prevention and intention to use condoms. Consistent condom use was associated with more cautious attitudes toward sex with multiple sex partners. Study results suggested that American Indian men who reported sex with multiple partners exhibited a set of attitudes and beliefs toward pregnancy prevention and STI/HIV prevention that corresponded with a disposition resulting from their behaviors, in that engaging in sexual risk behavior elevated their levels of risk perception. Our findings suggest that heterosexual American Indian men living in rural environments need sexual and reproductive health programs and clinical services that address differing attitudes toward condom use within the context of multiple sex partners and sexual risk behavior. © 2015 National Rural Health Association.

  16. Risk Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Boutang , Jérôme; De Lara , Michel

    2016-01-01

    In a modern world increasingly perceived as uncertain, the mere purchase of a household cleaning product, or a seemingly harmless bottle of milk, conveys interrogations about potential hazards, from environmental to health impacts. The main purpose of this article is to suggest that risk could be considered as one of the major dimensions of choice for a wide range of concerns and markets, alongside aspiration/satisfaction, and tackled efficiently by mobilizing the recent findings of cognitive...

  17. Nuclear risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulkers, G.

    1988-01-01

    This file includes data on risks insured by the nuclear insurance pool in Belgium and on the Chernobyl accident covering injury, economic damage and compensation for the latter. Also included are the texts of the IAEA Conventions on Early Notification and on Assistance in Case of a Nuclear Accident as well as that of a Convention on long-distance transfrontier atmospheric pollution signed in Geneva [fr

  18. Recovery of Abnormal ABR in Neonates and Infants at Risk of Hearing Loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis Psarommatis

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this retrospective study is to present the clinical experience of a single institution on the recovery of ABR thresholds in a large population of neonates and infants at risk of hearing loss. Potential prognostic factors associated with this phenomenon were also investigated. Out of 2248 high risk infants, 384 had abnormal ABR at initial hearing evaluation and 168 of them had absent ABR or a threshold ≥80 dBnHL. From this subgroup, a significant percentage showed complete or partial recovery on reexamination (32.7% and 9.3%, resp., performed 4–6 months later. The presence of normal otoacoustic emissions was associated with the ABR restoration on reexamination. Moreover, the very young age at the initial hearing screening seems to be related to higher probabilities of false positive ABR. The potential recovery of hearing in HR infants raises concerns about the very early cochlear implantation in HR infants less than one year. Such a treatment modality should be decided cautiously and only after obtaining valid and stable objective and subjective hearing thresholds. This holds especially true for infants showing an auditory neuropathy profile, as they presented a much greater probability of ABR recovery.

  19. Recovery of Abnormal ABR in Neonates and Infants at Risk of Hearing Loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Psarommatis, Ioannis; Voudouris, Charalampos; Kapetanakis, Ioannis; Athanasiadi, Faselida; Douros, Konstantinos

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this retrospective study is to present the clinical experience of a single institution on the recovery of ABR thresholds in a large population of neonates and infants at risk of hearing loss. Potential prognostic factors associated with this phenomenon were also investigated. Out of 2248 high risk infants, 384 had abnormal ABR at initial hearing evaluation and 168 of them had absent ABR or a threshold ≥80 dBnHL. From this subgroup, a significant percentage showed complete or partial recovery on reexamination (32.7% and 9.3%, resp.), performed 4-6 months later. The presence of normal otoacoustic emissions was associated with the ABR restoration on reexamination. Moreover, the very young age at the initial hearing screening seems to be related to higher probabilities of false positive ABR. The potential recovery of hearing in HR infants raises concerns about the very early cochlear implantation in HR infants less than one year. Such a treatment modality should be decided cautiously and only after obtaining valid and stable objective and subjective hearing thresholds. This holds especially true for infants showing an auditory neuropathy profile, as they presented a much greater probability of ABR recovery.

  20. Risks of tobacco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Secondhand smoke - risks; Cigarette smoking - risks; Smoking and smokeless tobacco - risks; Nicotine - risks ... tobacco that are known to cause cancer. HEALTH RISKS OF SMOKING OR USING SMOKELESS TOBACCO Knowing the ...

  1. Heart disease - risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heart disease - prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk ... a certain health condition. Some risk factors for heart disease you cannot change, but some you can. ...

  2. Verbal risk in communicating risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walters, J.C. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). School of Communication; Reno, H.W. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Idaho National Engineering Lab.

    1993-03-01

    When persons in the waste management industry have a conversation concerning matters of the industry, thoughts being communicated are understood among those in the industry. However, when persons in waste management communicate with those outside the industry, communication may suffer simply because of poor practices such as the use of jargon, euphemisms, acronyms, abbreviations, language usage, not knowing audience, and public perception. This paper deals with ways the waste management industry can communicate risk to the public without obfuscating issues. The waste management industry should feel obligated to communicate certain meanings within specific contexts and, then, if the context changes, should not put forth a new, more appropriate meaning to the language already used. Communication of the waste management industry does not have to be provisional. The authors suggest verbal risks in communicating risk can be reduced significantly or eliminated by following a few basic communication principles. The authors make suggestions and give examples of ways to improve communication with the general public by avoiding or reducing jargon, euphemisms, and acronyms; knowing the audience; avoiding presumptive knowledge held by the audience; and understanding public perception of waste management issues.

  3. Risks of long-term use of nitrofurantoin for urinary tract prophylaxis in the older patient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren L. Rego

    2016-12-01

    Conclusions: Pulmonary, nerve, or liver ARs resulting from long-term NF prophylaxis in older patients treated for UTIs are potentially serious but extremely rare, and should not deter from the cautious use of NF in this population.

  4. Risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahearne, J.F.

    1989-01-01

    Conflicts on technical issues frequently involve disagreements between the public and the technologists. This paper summarizes the major characteristics of three groups of technologists and four groups of the public which lead to many of the disagreements. To advance the mores of making decisions involving complex science or technology, technologists should develop an understanding of what information is needed for decisions, of the need for two-way communication with the public, and to become responsible for the accuracy and honesty of risk communication messages

  5. Publishing Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Steffensen

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available “What is complicated is not necessarily insightful and what is insightful is not necessarily complicated: Risks welcomes simple manuscripts that contribute with insight, outlook, understanding and overview”—a quote from the first editorial of this journal [1]. Good articles are not characterized by their level of complication but by their level of imagination, innovation, and power of penetration. Creativity sessions and innovative tasks are most elegant and powerful when they are delicately simple. This is why the articles you most remember are not the complicated ones that you struggled to digest, but the simpler ones you enjoyed swallowing.

  6. Balancing Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nygaard, Lene; Rossen, Camilla Blach; Buus, Niels

    2015-01-01

    This study explored how eight pregnant women diagnosed with depression managed the decision whether or not to take antidepressants during pregnancy. In total, 11 interviews were conducted and analysed by means of constructivist grounded theory. The major category constructed was Balancing risk......, with two minor categories: Assessing depression and antidepressants and Evaluating the impact of significant others. The participants tried to make the safest decision, taking all aspects of their life into consideration. They described successful decision-making in the context of managing social norms...

  7. Proliferation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carchon, R.

    1998-09-01

    The report gives an overview of different aspects related to safeguards of fissile materials. Existing treaties including the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the Tlatelolco and the Rarotonga Treaties are discussed. An overview of safeguards systems for the control of fissile materials as well as the role of various authorities is given. An overall overview of proliferation risks, the physical protection of fissile materials and the trade in fissile materials is given. Finally, the status in problem countries and de facto nuclear weapon states is discussed

  8. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

  9. Does specific psychopathology predict development of psychosis in ultra high-risk (UHR) patients?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Andrew; Nelson, Barnaby; Bruxner, Annie; O'Connor, Karen; Mossaheb, Nilufar; Simmons, Magenta B; Yung, Alison

    2013-04-01

    Studies have attempted to identify additional risk factors within the group identified as 'ultra high risk' (UHR) for developing psychotic disorders in order to characterise those at highest risk. However, these studies have often neglected clinical symptom types as additional risk factors. We aimed to investigate the relationship between baseline clinical psychotic or psychotic-like symptoms and the subsequent transition to a psychotic disorder in a UHR sample. A retrospective 'case-control' methodology was used. We identified all individuals from a UHR clinic who had subsequently developed a psychotic disorder (cases) and compared these to a random sample of individuals from the clinic who did not become psychotic within the sampling time frame (controls). The sample consisted of 120 patients (60 cases, 60 controls). An audit tool was used to identify clinical symptoms reported at entry to the clinic (baseline) using the clinical file. Diagnosis at transition was assessed using the Operational Criteria for Psychotic Illness (OPCRIT) computer program. The relationship between transition to a psychotic disorder and baseline symptoms was explored using survival analysis. Presence of thought disorder, any delusions and elevated mood significantly predicted transition to a psychotic disorder. When other symptoms were adjusted for, only the presence of elevated mood significantly predicted subsequent transition (hazard ratio 2.69, p = 0.002). Thought disorder was a predictor of transition to a schizophrenia-like psychotic disorder (hazard ratio 3.69, p = 0.008). Few individual clinical symptoms appear to be predictive of transition to a psychotic disorder in the UHR group. Clinicians should be cautious about the use of clinical profile alone in such individuals when determining who is at highest risk.

  10. Calculated risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodricks, J.V.

    1992-01-01

    This book is a clear, practical, and balanced view of toxicology and risk management. The introduction argues the case for risks assessment and outlines the benefits and problems associated with chemical exposure. The first part of the book covers the basic science and the sources of human exposure to chemicals. Absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion are covered in some detail. The subsequent chapter gives a lively discussion of toxicity studies and then describes slow and fast poisons. The author gives the arguments for as well as against animal testing. There is much public bewilderment caused by reports of cancer-causing pesticides in apple juice and poisons emanating from nearby hazardous waste sites. The author believes that too much has been written in an attempt to expose governmental and corporate ignorance, negligence, and corruption. This book is less of a polemic, and more of a clear, unbiased clarification of the scientific basis for our concerns and uncertainties. It should serve to refocus the debate

  11. Volcanic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rancon, J.P.; Baubron, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    This project follows the previous multi-disciplinary studies carried out by the French Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres (BRGM) on the two active volcanoes of the French lesser Antilles: Mt Pelee (Martinique) and Soufriere (Guadeloupe) for which geological maps and volcanic risk studies have been achieved. The research program comprises 5 parts: the study of pyroclastic deposits from recent eruptions of the two volcanoes for a better characterization of their eruptive phenomenology and a better definition of crisis scenarios; the study of deposits and structures of active volcanoes from Central America and the study of eruptive dynamics of andesite volcanoes for a transposition to Antilles' volcanoes; the starting of a methodological multi-disciplinary research (volcanology, geography, sociology...) on the volcanic risk analysis and on the management of a future crisis; and finally, the development of geochemical survey techniques (radon, CO 2 , H 2 O) on active volcanoes of Costa-Rica and Europe (Fournaise, Furnas, Etna) and their application to the Soufriere. (J.S.). 9 refs., 3 figs

  12. Men's perspectives on fall risk and fall prevention following participation in a group-based programme conducted at Men's Sheds, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liddle, Jeannine L M; Lovarini, Meryl; Clemson, Lindy M; Jang, Haeyoung; Willis, Karen; Lord, Stephen R; Sherrington, Catherine

    2017-05-01

    Research on older men's views regarding fall prevention is limited. The purpose of this qualitative study was to explore the experiences and perspectives of older men regarding fall risk and prevention so that fall prevention programmes can better engage older men. Eleven men who had taken part in a group-based fall prevention programme called Stepping On conducted at Men's Sheds in Sydney, Australia, participated in semi-structured interviews during June and July 2015 which were audio-recorded and transcribed. Data were coded and analysed using constant comparative methods. Over-arching theoretical categories were developed into a conceptual framework linking programme context and content with effects of programme participation on men. Men's Sheds facilitated participation in the programme by being inclusive, male-friendly places, where Stepping On was programmed into regular activities and was conducted in an enjoyable, supportive atmosphere. Programme content challenged participants to think differently about themselves and their personal fall risk, and provided practical options to address fall risk. Two major themes were identified: adjusting the mindset where men adopted a more cautious mindset paying greater attention to potential fall risks, being careful, concentrating and slowing down; and changing the ways where men acted purposefully on environmental hazards at home and incorporated fall prevention exercises into their routine schedules. Practitioners can engage and support older men to address falls by better understanding men's perspectives on personal fall risk and motivations for action. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  14. Radiation risks and other risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansweyer, C.J.M.

    1981-01-01

    The differences in acceptance of risks of different nature (industrial, in the home, on the road, use of drugs, alcohol, tobacco, coffee or other food stuffs) by the public are compared on the basis of life expectancy values of different categories of people. The safety of radiologic work for both personnel and patients is considered in connection with the basic principles underlying the ICRP recommendations. A computation of the effective body dose equivalent for a mean medical X-ray examination and a nuclear in vivo examination is given. (Auth.)

  15. Biofilm Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wirtanen, Gun Linnea; Salo, Satu

    2016-01-01

    This chapter on biofilm risks deals with biofilm formation of pathogenic microbes, sampling and detection methods, biofilm removal, and prevention of biofilm formation. Several common pathogens produce sticky and/or slimy structures in which the cells are embedded, that is, biofilms, on various...... surfaces in food processing. Biofilms of common foodborne pathogens are reviewed. The issue of persistent and nonpersistent microbial contamination in food processing is also discussed. It has been shown that biofilms can be difficult to remove and can thus cause severe disinfection and cleaning problems...... in food factories. In the prevention of biofilm formation microbial control in process lines should both limit the number of microbes on surfaces and reduce microbial activity in the process. Thus the hygienic design of process equipment and process lines is important in improving the process hygiene...

  16. Managing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nathwani, J.S.

    1993-01-01

    The three principles to guide regulating authorities are: Risks shall be managed to maximize the total expected net benefit to society; The safety benefit to be promoted is quality-adjusted life expectancy; Decisions for the public in regard to health and safety must be open and apply across the entire range of hazards to life and health. Based on the principle that excessive spending on health and safety, or lack of necessary development, may cause poverty and thereby actually decrease (adjusted) life expectancy, the author has developed a Life Product Index which gives comparable results to the Human Development Index promoted by the United Nations Development Program. These two social indicators can be used for purposes such as project evaluation, choosing between alternative technologies, or evaluation of health and safety programs

  17. A Prospective Cohort Study of Absconsion Incidents in Forensic Psychiatric Settings: Can We Identify Those at High-Risk?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexis E Cullen

    and substance use, are strong predictors of absconsion in forensic settings; the absence of these factors may enable clinical teams to identify unnecessarily restricted low-risk individuals.

  18. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  19. Does radiation risk exist?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Passchier, W.

    1996-01-01

    Risk assessment and risk management are parts of a dynamic process with the objective to decide on the tolerability of risk and on measures to keep risk within accepted limits. It enables all relevant parties to express their concerns and preferences regarding the different options for the human action involved and regarding the relative importance of criteria to decide on the tolerability of risk. Risk assessment has three phases; problem definition, risk analysis and risk characterization. Risk analysis is primarily a technical and scientific endeavour. With regard to problem definition and ride characterization consultation between risk assessors and risk managers (and other parties concerned) is a must. (author)

  20. Ureteric stent dwelling time: a risk factor for post-ureteroscopy sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevo, Amihay; Mano, Roy; Baniel, Jack; Lifshitz, David A

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate the association between stent dwelling time and sepsis after ureteroscopy, and identify risk factors for sepsis in this setting. The prospectively collected database of a single institution was queried for all patients who underwent ureteroscopy for stone extraction between 2010 and 2016. Demographic, clinical, preoperative and operative data were collected. The primary study endpoint was sepsis within 48 h of ureteroscopy. Logistic regressions were performed to identify predictors of post-ureteroscopy sepsis in the ureteroscopy cohort and specifically in patients with prior stent insertion. Between October 2010 and April 2016, 1 256 patients underwent ureteroscopy for stone extraction. Risk factors for sepsis included prior stent placement, female gender and Charlson comorbidity index. A total of 601 patients had a ureteric stent inserted before the operation and were included in the study cohort, in which the median age was 56 years, 90 patients were women (30%), and 97 patients were treated for positive preoperative urine cultures (16.1%). Postoperative sepsis, Sepsis rates after stent dwelling times of 1, 2, 3 and >3 months were 1, 4.9, 5.5 and 9.2%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, stent dwelling time, stent insertion because of sepsis, and female gender were significantly associated with post-ureteroscopy sepsis in patients with prior stent placement. Patients who undergo ureteroscopy after ureteric stent insertion have a higher risk of postoperative sepsis. Prolonged stent dwelling time, sepsis as an indication for stent insertion, and female gender are independent risk factors. Stent placement should be considered cautiously, and if inserted, ureteroscopy should be performed within 1 month. © 2017 The Authors BJU International © 2017 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

    2015-02-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

  2. Risk from environmental chemicals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somers, E [Environmental Health Directorate, Health Protection Branch, Health and Welfare Canada, Ontario

    1982-01-01

    The elements of risk assessment, namely risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and risk management, are described with respect to the control of environmental chemicals. The methodology of risk estimation is outlined and examples given of its application to regulatory decision-making for a number of chemicals in Canada. Finally, the extent and limitations of the process of risk evaluation are considered together with the need to recognize the importance of the public's perception of the level of risk.

  3. Myths in peritoneal dialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Martin B; Bargman, Joanne M

    2016-11-01

    To clarify misconceptions about the feasibility and risks of peritoneal dialysis that unnecessarily limit peritoneal dialysis uptake or continuation in patients for whom peritoneal dialysis is the preferred dialysis modality. The inappropriate choice of haemodialysis as a result of these misconceptions contributes to low peritoneal dialysis penetrance, increases transfer from peritoneal dialysis to haemodialysis, increases expenditure on haemodialysis and compromises quality of life for these patients. Peritoneal dialysis is an excellent renal replacement modality that is simple, cost-effective and provides comparable clinical outcomes to conventional in-centre haemodialysis. Unfortunately, many patients are deemed unsuitable to start or continue peritoneal dialysis because of false or inaccurate beliefs about peritoneal dialysis. Here, we examine some of these 'myths' and critically review the evidence for and against each of them. We review the feasibility and risk of peritoneal dialysis in patients with prior surgery, ostomies, obesity and mesh hernia repairs. We examine the fear of mediastinitis with peritoneal dialysis after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and the belief that the use of hypertonic glucose dialysate causes peritoneal membrane failure. By clarifying common myths about peritoneal dialysis, we hope to reduce overly cautious practices surrounding this therapy.

  4. Screening mammography. A risk versus risk decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritenour, E.R.; Hendee, W.R.

    1989-01-01

    The potential risk of a radiologic procedure often is compared with the potential benefit of the procedure. While risk vs. benefit analysis has been useful as a step toward increased communication and understanding among radiologists, referring physicians, and the general public, it has the disadvantage that risk and benefit are fundamentally different quantities. Hence, their juxtaposition for purposes of comparison presents contextual difficulties. In this article, the concept is presented of comparing the risk of doing a procedure with the risk of choosing not to do the procedure. An example of risk vs. risk analysis of screening mammography for women over the age of 50 is given, with the conclusion that the risk of having yearly mammograms is less than 1/10 the risk of early death caused by failure to diagnose breast cancer by x-ray mammography. This approach to risk analysis would yield interesting data for examinations that are part of more complicated diagnostic pathways.19 references

  5. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  6. Risk assessment of silica nanoparticles on liver injury in metabolic syndrome mice induced by fructose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianmei; He, Xiwei; Yang, Yang; Li, Mei; Xu, Chenke; Yu, Rong

    2018-07-01

    This study aims to assess the effects and the mechanisms of silica nanoparticles (SiNPs) on hepatotoxicity in both normal and metabolic syndrome mouse models induced by fructose. Here, we found that SiNPs exposure lead to improved insulin resistance in metabolic syndrome mice, but markedly worsened hepatic ballooning, inflammation infiltration, and fibrosis. Moreover, SiNPs exposure aggravated liver injury in metabolic syndrome mice by causing serious DNA damage. Following SiNPs exposure, liver superoxide dismutase and catalase activities in metabolic syndrome mice were stimulated, which is accompanied by significantly increased malondialdehyde and 8-hydroxy-2-deoxyguanosine levels as compared to normal mice. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) revealed that SiNPs were more readily deposited in the liver mitochondria of metabolic syndrome mice, resulting in more severe mitochondrial injury as compared to normal mice. We speculated that SiNPs-induced mitochondrial injury might be the cause of hepatic oxidative stress, which further lead to a series of liver lesions as observed in mice following SiNPs exposure. Based on these results, it is likely that SiNPs will increase the risk and severity of liver disease in individuals with metabolic syndrome. Therefore, SiNPs should be used cautiously in food additives and clinical settings. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Benefits and risks of preoperative bowel cleansing in the pediatric population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Cordero Castro

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This article has as aim to announce the results of a clinical question referred about the intestinal cleanliness method most adapted for the pediatric population before a colorectal surgery, in order to diminish the electrolytic alterations for the utilization of the same ones and hereby to provide a better intestinal preparation with the minor risks. Is true the method of intestinal cleanliness it is a medical indication, the infirmary professionals must think about his work and wonder it brings over of his own practice and to work in a surest way (Young, 2003. There was realized a search, review and analysis of the scientific literature for that there were use different databases, as for example seeker academic GOOGLE, administrators of articles PUBMED, MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCIELO and Cochrane in Spanish and English language. Found 31 investigations that refer to the interest topic in indirect form. The conclusion were that the fosfosoda oral is effective and better tolerated in the intestinal cleanlinesses with the exception of the magnesium citrate who overcomes in flavor, for this could be an option for the use in pediatric populations. Nevertheless to use cautiously it's recommended to take renal function test and electrolytic pre, trans and post administration, added to the use of intravenous solutions mixed or electrolytic balanced intravenous as reinstatement to the losses. Nevertheless, there is no forceful evidence to determine which method of intestinal cleanliness is better and less risky for the children.

  8. Genotypes of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in patients at risk of drug resistance in Bolivia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteserin, Johana; Camacho, Mirtha; Barrera, Lucía; Palomino, Juan Carlos; Ritacco, Viviana; Martin, Anandi

    2013-07-01

    Bolivia ranks among the 10 Latin American countries with the highest rates of tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug resistant (MDR) TB. In view of this, and of the lacking information on the population structure of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the country, we explored genotype associations with drug resistance and clustering by analyzing isolates collected in 2010 from 100 consecutive TB patients at risk of drug resistance in seven of the nine departments in which Bolivia is divided. Fourteen isolates were MDR, 29 had other drug resistance profiles, and 57 were pansusceptible. Spoligotype family distribution was: Haarlem 39.4%, LAM 26.3%, T 22.2%, S 2.0%, X 1.0%, orphan 9.1%, with very low intra-family diversity and absence of Beijing genotypes. We found 66 different MIRU-VNTR patterns; the most frequent corresponded to Multiple Locus Variable Analysis (MLVA) MtbC15 patterns 860, 372 and 873. Twelve clusters, each with identical MIRU-VNTR and spoligotypes, gathered 35 patients. We found no association of genotype with drug resistant or MDR-TB. Clustering associated with SIT 50 and the H3 subfamily to which it belongs (pBolivia. However, results should be taken cautiously because the sample is small and includes a particular subset of M. tuberculosis population. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Andres Calvache

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

  10. A case-control study to identify risk factors for totally implantable central venous port-related bloodstream infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Guk Jin; Hong, Sook Hee; Roh, Sang Young; Park, Sa Rah; Lee, Myung Ah; Chun, Hoo Geun; Hong, Young Seon; Kang, Jin Hyoung; Kim, Sang Il; Kim, Youn Jeong; Chun, Ho Jong; Oh, Jung Suk

    2014-07-01

    To date, the risk factors for central venous port-related bloodstream infection (CVPBSI) in solid cancer patients have not been fully elucidated. We conducted this study in order to determine the risk factors for CVP-BSI in patients with solid cancer. A total of 1,642 patients with solid cancer received an implantable central venous port for delivery of chemotherapy between October 2008 and December 2011 in a single center. CVP-BSI was diagnosed in 66 patients (4%). We selected a control group of 130 patients, who were individually matched with respect to age, sex, and catheter insertion time. CVP-BSI occurred most frequently between September and November (37.9%). The most common pathogen was gram-positive cocci (n=35, 53.0%), followed by fungus (n=14, 21.2%). Multivariate analysis identified monthly catheter-stay as a risk factor for CVP-BSI (p=0.000), however, its risk was lower in primary gastrointestinal cancer than in other cancer (p=0.002). Initial metastatic disease and long catheter-stay were statistically significant factors affecting catheter life span (p=0.005 and p=0.000). Results of multivariate analysis showed that recent transfusion was a risk factor for mortality in patients with CVP-BSI (p=0.047). In analysis of the results with respect to risk factors, prolonged catheter-stay should be avoided as much as possible. It is necessary to be cautious of CVP-BSI in metastatic solid cancer, especially non-gastrointestinal cancer. In addition, avoidance of unnecessary transfusion is essential in order to reduce the mortality of CVP-BSI. Finally, considering the fact that confounding factors may have affected the results, conduct of a well-designed prospective controlled study is warranted.

  11. Enterprise risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eaton, C. [Enbridge, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a relative new, holistic and strategic approach for managing risks in modern organizations. ERM builds on and extends traditional risk management (RM). Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives - positive and/or negative. Risk management is a set of practices used to understand and address risk. ERM is a form of RM that emphasizes risk aggregation and integration. Risk aggregation is combining individual risks into categories ({sup r}olled up{sup )}. risk integration is embedding RM into organizational contexts ({sup b}uilt in{sup )}.

  12. Fall incidence and associated risk factors among people with a lower limb amputation during various stages of recovery - a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, Noam; Gottlieb, Amihai; Siev-Ner, Itzhak; Plotnik, Meir

    2018-03-14

    The objective of this study was to estimate fall incidence and describe associated risk factors among people with a lower limb amputation (LLA) during various stages of recovery: the surgical ward, in-patient rehabilitation and return to community life. A systematic search of relevant English language articles was performed using PubMed and EMBASE. Out of 310 initial "hits," six retrospective cohort studies, one prospective cohort study and eleven cross-sectional studies from which fall incidence and risk factors could be extracted, were selected for critical review. Fall incidence and associated risk factors were extracted and analyzed in the context of various clinical stages of recovery after amputation. The studies were evaluated for quality using the "Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies." Results showed that during all stages of recovery, people with a LLA are at increased risk of falling compared with able-bodied individuals, as well as other clinical populations. Each stage of recovery is associated with different fall risk factors. The current review is limited mainly by the paucity of studies on the topic. Specialised care focusing on the most relevant risk factors for each stage of recovery may enhance fall prevention during post-fall recovery. Implications for rehabilitation •  People with a lower limb amputation are at a high risk of falling in all stages of their clinical course.      •  Health professionals should be aware that people with a lower limb amputation in the first 4 years ofamputation or with four or more health-related problems are at an increased risk.      •  Health professionals should also be aware that increased gait variability, excess confidence in balance andwalking abilities and less cautious stair walking, impose an elevated risk of falling and should focus theirefforts in reducing these factors.

  13. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  14. Risk and risk aversion in our society

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, B L [Pittsburgh Univ., PA (USA)

    1985-01-01

    The best way to understand the magnitude of a risk is to compare it with other risks with which we are familiar, and a convenient way of doing this is to compare risks on the basis of Loss of Life Expectancy, LLE, that they cause. The LLE due to various risks including energy generation is listed. The cost of programs to save lives by medical screening, highway safety and other methods is summarised. The public's perception of radiation risks is grossly exaggerated relative to other risks.

  15. Risk and risk aversion in our society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1985-01-01

    The best way to understand the magnitude of a risk is to compare it with other risks which we are familiar, and a convenient way of doing this is to compare risks on the basis of Loss of Life Expectancy, LLE, that they cause. The LLE due to various risks including energy generation is listed. The cost of programs to save lives by medical screening, highway safety and other methods is summarised. The public's perception of radiation risks is grossly exaggerated relative to other risks

  16. Downside Variance Risk Premium

    OpenAIRE

    Feunou, Bruno; Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad; Okou, Cedric

    2015-01-01

    We propose a new decomposition of the variance risk premium in terms of upside and downside variance risk premia. The difference between upside and downside variance risk premia is a measure of skewness risk premium. We establish that the downside variance risk premium is the main component of the variance risk premium, and that the skewness risk premium is a priced factor with significant prediction power for aggregate excess returns. Our empirical investigation highlights the positive and s...

  17. Risk control and the minimum significant risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limit to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented

  18. Risk and risk acceptance by society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Statt, C.

    1977-01-01

    Various dimensions of risk are identified which relate to the manner in which risk is perceived and evaluated, and several self-consistent risk characteristics are explored. Factors which are thought to influence the perception of risk include the degree of personal control over the risk, the potential of episodic events, and the probable severity of injury if a risk event occurs. Risk-benefit analysis can be applied to three problems: the allocation of resources for safety expenditures, the setting of standards, and societal risk taking decisions. Calculations of benefit are needed for the third area of application, methods for the other two frequently do not require such a measure. (orig./RW) [de

  19. Impact of high-risk conjunctions on Active Debris Removal target selection

    OpenAIRE

    Lidtke, Aleksander A.; Lewis, Hugh G.; Armellin, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    All rights reserved.Space debris simulations show that if current space launches continue unchanged, spacecraft operations might become difficult in the congested space environment. It has been suggested that Active Debris Removal (ADR) might be necessary in order to prevent such a situation. Selection of objects to be targeted by ADR is considered important because removal of non-relevant objects will unnecessarily increase the cost of ADR. One of the factors to be used in this ADR target se...

  20. Risk and reliability allocation to risk control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vojnovic, D.; Kozuh, M.

    1992-01-01

    The risk allocation procedure is used as an analytical model to support the optimal decision making for reliability/availability improvement planning. Both levels of decision criteria, the plant risk measures and plant performance indices, are used in risk allocation procedure. Decision support system uses the multi objective decision making concept. (author) [sl

  1. Interventional radiography and mortality risks in U.S. radiologic technologists

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linet, Martha S.; Freedman, D.M.; Sigurdson, Alice J.; Doody, Michele M. [National Cancer Institute, Radiation Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Bethesda, MD (United States); Hauptmann, Michael [National Cancer Institute, Biostatistics Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Bethesda, MD (United States); Alexander, Bruce H. [University of Minnesota, Division of Environmental Health Sciences, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Miller, Jeremy [Information Management Services, Inc., Rockville, MD (United States)

    2006-09-15

    highest frequency of interventional radiography procedures must be interpreted cautiously in light of the small number of deaths during the relatively short follow-up. The present study cannot rule out increased risks of cerebrovascular disease, specific cancers, and diseases with low case-fatality rates or a long latency period preceding death. (orig.)

  2. Assess for Success: The Role of Doctrine in Effective Combat Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bailey, Thomas

    2001-01-01

    ... and equipment unnecessarily at risk, Operations since then have not fared much better, This paper examines the "BDA problem" in some detail, focusing on the current military doctrine that has evolved in recent...

  3. Benefits and Harms of Treatment of Asymptomatic Bacteriuria: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis by the European Association of Urology Urological Infection Guidelines Panel

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Köves, Bela; Cai, Tommaso; Veeratterapillay, Rajan; Pickard, Robert; Seisen, Thomas; Lam, Thomas B.; Yuan, Cathy Yuhong; Bruyere, Franck; Wagenlehner, Florian; Bartoletti, Riccardo; Geerlings, Suzanne E.; Pilatz, Adrian; Pradere, Benjamin; Hofmann, Fabian; Bonkat, Gernot; Wullt, Björn

    2017-01-01

    People with asymptomatic bacteriuria (ABU) are often unnecessarily treated with antibiotics risking adverse effects and antimicrobial resistance. We performed a systematic review to determine any benefits and harms of treating ABU in particular patient groups. Relevant databases were searched and

  4. Risk Factors for Scleroderma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... You are here: Home For Patients Risk Factors Risk Factors for Scleroderma The cause of scleroderma is ... what biological factors contribute to scleroderma pathogenesis. Genetic Risk Scleroderma does not tend to run in families ...

  5. Risk Factors and Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Back to Patient Resources Risk Factors & Prevention Even people who look healthy and ... Blood Pressure , high cholesterol, diabetes, and thyroid disease. Risk Factors For Arrhythmias and Heart Disease The following ...

  6. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  7. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  8. Evaluation of end-user satisfaction among employees participating in a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosbergen, Sandra; Laan, Eva K; Colkesen, Ersen B; Niessen, Maurice A J; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise; Peek, Niels

    2012-10-30

    Web technology is increasingly being used to provide individuals with health risk assessments (HRAs) with tailored feedback. End-user satisfaction is an important determinant of the potential impact of HRAs, as this influences program attrition and adherence to behavioral advice. The aim of this study was to evaluate end-user satisfaction with a web-based HRA with tailored feedback applied in worksite settings, using mixed (quantitative and qualitative) methods. Employees of seven companies in the Netherlands participated in a commercial, web-based, HRA with tailored feedback. The HRA consisted of four components: 1) a health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire, 2) a biometric evaluation, 3) a laboratory evaluation, and 4) tailored feedback consisting of a personal health risk profile and lifestyle behavior advice communicated through a web portal. HRA respondents received an evaluation questionnaire after six weeks. Satisfaction with different parts of the HRA was measured on 5-point Likert scales. A free-text field provided the opportunity to make additional comments. In total, 2289 employees participated in the HRA program, of which 637 (27.8%) completed the evaluation questionnaire. Quantitative analysis showed that 85.6% of the respondents evaluated the overall HRA positively. The free-text field was filled in by 29.7 % of the respondents (189 out of 637), who made 315 separate remarks. Qualitative evaluation of these data showed that these respondents made critical remarks. Respondents felt restricted by the answer categories of the health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire, which resulted in the feeling that the corresponding feedback could be inadequate. Some respondents perceived the personal risk profile as unnecessarily alarming or suggested providing more explanations, reference values, and a justification of the behavioral advice given. Respondents also requested the opportunity to discuss the feedback with a health professional. Most people

  9. Balancing cardiovascular and gastrointestinal risks in patients with osteoarthritis receiving nonsteroidal anti‑inflammatory drugs. A summary of guidelines from an international expert group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosleh, Wassim; Farkouh, Michael E

    2016-01-01

    Over the past 2 decades, extensive research has assessed the use of traditional nonsteroidal anti‑inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), and the newer cyclooxygenase‑2 (COX-2) inhibitor drugs, in the treatment of chronic pain syndromes. The proper use of NSAIDs has been the subject of significant debate, bringing together multidisciplinary researchers and clinicians to discuss the risks and benefits of these therapies. Current guidelines discussing the proper use of NSAIDs do not address the issue of the risks of COX‑2‑selective NSAIDs and nonselective NSAIDs for both the gastrointestinal (GI) and cardiovascular (CV) systems in patients on low‑dose aspirin. Accordingly, a multidisciplinary expert group was organized to review the current evidence with the aim of developing statements devoted to guide clinicians in making evidence‑based and individualized selections of NSAIDs. This review will discuss and summarize the most recent evidence on this topic to give an insight into the most effective and safest therapeutic options, thus preventing serious adverse CV and GI events. NSAIDs should be used cautiously and as infrequently as possible, with nonpharmacological approaches prescribed first. If the use of NSAIDs is required, the choice should balance the possible CV and GI risks.

  10. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  11. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  12. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  13. Assessment of children's nutritional attitudes before oral food challenges to identify patients at risk of food reintroduction failure: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polloni, L; Ferruzza, E; Ronconi, L; Toniolo, A; Lazzarotto, F; Bonaguro, R; Celegato, N; Muraro, A

    2017-05-01

    Inappropriate dietary eliminations may impair quality of life, affect children's growth and unnecessarily impact on healthcare costs. Previous retrospective studies reported that around 25% of children continue a food-avoidance diet despite a negative oral food challenge (OFC). A definite pattern has not been found yet for patients not reintroducing the food. This study aimed to examine the role of child's nutritional attitudes and maternal anxiety in reintroducing food after a negative OFC. A prospective study was conducted involving 81 mothers of children with IgE-mediated food allergy. They completed a survey on nutritional behaviour and attitudes and the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory on the day of OFC and 6 months later. In total, 11.1% of children never or rarely ate the food after a negative OFC. Consumption of the reintroduced food is positively correlated to child's interest in tasting new foods before and after OFC and to changes in child's nutritional habits after OFC. It is negatively correlated to monotony of the diet after OFC. No correlations were found with other participants' characteristics or maternal anxiety. State anxiety significantly decreased after the OFC. A correlation was found between trait and state anxiety and the degree of change in nutritional habits after OFC. Evaluating child's approach towards food before the OFC is a promising approach to identify patients at risk of food reintroduction failure. Furthermore, it underlined the importance of reassessing food consumption in all patients after a negative OFC and supporting patients in the reintroduction of food. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  15. On portfolio risk diversification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takada, Hellinton H.; Stern, Julio M.

    2017-06-01

    The first portfolio risk diversification strategy was put into practice by the All Weather fund in 1996. The idea of risk diversification is related to the risk contribution of each available asset class or investment factor to the total portfolio risk. The maximum diversification or the risk parity allocation is achieved when the set of risk contributions is given by a uniform distribution. Meucci (2009) introduced the maximization of the Rényi entropy as part of a leverage constrained optimization problem to achieve such diversified risk contributions when dealing with uncorrelated investment factors. A generalization of the risk parity is the risk budgeting when there is a prior for the distribution of the risk contributions. Our contribution is the generalization of the existent optimization frameworks to be able to solve the risk budgeting problem. In addition, our framework does not possess any leverage constraint.

  16. VALUE AT RISK - CORPORATE RISK MEASUREMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anis Cecilia-Nicoleta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.

  17. Exposure to ionizing radiation during dental X-rays is not associated with risk of developing meningioma: a meta-analysis based on seven case-control studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Ping; Luo, Hong; Huang, Guang-Lei; Yin, Xin-Hai; Luo, Si-Yang; Song, Ju-Kun

    2015-01-01

    Many observational studies have found that exposure to dental X-rays is associated with the risk of development of meningioma. However, these findings are inconsistent. We conducted a meta-analysis to assess the relationship between exposure to dental X-rays and the risk of development of meningioma. The PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched to identify eligible studies. Summary odds ratio (OR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were used to compute the risk of meningioma development according to heterogeneity. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed to further explore the potential heterogeneity. Finally, publication bias was assessed. Seven case-control studies involving 6,174 patients and 19,459 controls were included in the meta-analysis. Neither exposure to dental X-rays nor performance of full-mouth panorex X-rays was associated with an increased risk of development of meningioma (overall: OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.70-1.32; dental X-rays: OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.89-1.25; panorex X-rays: OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.76-1.34). However, exposure to bitewing X-rays was associated with a slightly increased risk of development of meningioma (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.28-2.34). Similar results were obtained in the subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Little evidence of publication bias was observed. Based on the currently limited data, there is no association between exposure to dental X-rays and the risk of development of meningioma. However, these results should be cautiously interpreted because of the heterogeneity among studies. Additional large, high-quality clinical trials are needed to evaluate the association between exposure to dental X-rays and the risk of development of meningioma.

  18. Exposure to ionizing radiation during dental X-rays is not associated with risk of developing meningioma: a meta-analysis based on seven case-control studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Xu

    Full Text Available Many observational studies have found that exposure to dental X-rays is associated with the risk of development of meningioma. However, these findings are inconsistent. We conducted a meta-analysis to assess the relationship between exposure to dental X-rays and the risk of development of meningioma.The PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched to identify eligible studies. Summary odds ratio (OR estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs were used to compute the risk of meningioma development according to heterogeneity. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed to further explore the potential heterogeneity. Finally, publication bias was assessed.Seven case-control studies involving 6,174 patients and 19,459 controls were included in the meta-analysis. Neither exposure to dental X-rays nor performance of full-mouth panorex X-rays was associated with an increased risk of development of meningioma (overall: OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.70-1.32; dental X-rays: OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.89-1.25; panorex X-rays: OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.76-1.34. However, exposure to bitewing X-rays was associated with a slightly increased risk of development of meningioma (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.28-2.34. Similar results were obtained in the subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Little evidence of publication bias was observed.Based on the currently limited data, there is no association between exposure to dental X-rays and the risk of development of meningioma. However, these results should be cautiously interpreted because of the heterogeneity among studies. Additional large, high-quality clinical trials are needed to evaluate the association between exposure to dental X-rays and the risk of development of meningioma.

  19. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  20. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  1. Identifying and Managing Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Janice M.

    1999-01-01

    The role of the college or university chief financial officer in institutional risk management is (1) to identify risk (physical, casualty, fiscal, business, reputational, workplace safety, legal liability, employment practices, general liability), (2) to develop a campus plan to reduce and control risk, (3) to transfer risk, and (4) to track and…

  2. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  3. Risk management and safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.; Novegno, A.

    1985-01-01

    Risk assessment, including probabilistic analyses, has made great progress over the past decade. In spite of the inherent uncertainties it has now become possible to utilize methods and results for decision making at various levels. This paper will, therefore, review risk management in industrial installations, risk management for energy safety policy and prospects of risk management in highly industrialized areas. (orig.) [de

  4. Risk Factors Associated with Discordant Ki-67 Levels between Preoperative Biopsy and Postoperative Surgical Specimens in Breast Cancers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyung Sun Kim

    values should be cautious considering types of specimens and clinicopathological risk factors.

  5. Man, technology and risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-06-01

    Using the instruments of empirical social sciences, a cross-section study was conducted comprising experiments on qualitative risk characteristics, in-depth interviews on mechanisms of risk perception and representative surveys of the public on technical risk sources, in particular with regard to nuclear energy. The results of these studies show that person-related expectations in respect of risk consequences, the possibility of personal influencing control, the severeness of risk consequences and one's own risk propensity play a significant role in the evaluation of risks. (Translated from German, original report Juel-Spez--67).

  6. Catalog of risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, B L; Lee, I S [Pittsburgh Univ., PA (USA). Dept. of Physics

    1979-06-01

    Information on risks is collected from various sources and converted into loss of life expectancy throughout life and in various age ranges. Risks included are radiation, accidents of various types, various diseases, overweight, tobacco use, alcohol and drugs, coffee, saccharin, and The Pill, occupational risks, socioeconomic factors, marital status, geography, serving in U.S. armed forces in Vietnam, catastrophic events, energy production, and technology in general. Information is also included on methods for reducing risks, risks in individual actions, very-hazardous activities, and priorities and perspective. Risks of natural and occupational radiation and exposure to radioactivity from the nuclear industry are compared with risks of similar or competing activities.

  7. A catalog of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.; Lee, I.S.

    1979-01-01

    Information on risks is collected from various sources and converted into loss of life expectancy throughout life and in various age ranges. Risks included are radiation, accidents of various types, various diseases, overweight, tobacco use, alcohol and drugs, coffee, saccharin, and The Pill, occupational risks, socioeconomic factors, marital status, geography, serving in U.S. armed forces in Vietnam, catastrophic events, energy production, and technology in general. Information is also included on methods for reducing risks, risks in individual actions, very-hazardous activities, and priorities and perspective. Risks of natural and occupational radiation and exposure to radioactivity from the nuclear industry are compared with risks of similar or competing activities. (author)

  8. A survey of risk factors for digit injuries among dogs training and competing in agility events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellon, Debra C; Martucci, Katherine; Wenz, John R; Marcellin-Little, Denis J; Powers, Michelle; Cullen, Kimberley L

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To identify potential risk factors for digit injuries in dogs training and competing in agility events. DESIGN Internet-based, retrospective, cross-sectional survey. ANIMALS 1,081 dogs training or competing in agility events. PROCEDURES Data were collected for eligible animals via retrospective surveys distributed electronically to handlers of dogs participating in agility-related activities. Variables evaluated included demographic (handlers) and signalment (dogs) information, physical characteristics of dogs, and injury characteristics. A separate survey of dogs competing in similar agility-related activities but without digit injuries was also administered. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop a model for assessment of risk factors. RESULTS Data were collected from 207 agility dogs with digit injuries and 874 agility dogs without digit injuries. Factors associated with significantly increased odds of injury included Border Collie breed (OR, 2.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5 to 3.3), long nails (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.3 to 4.5), absence of front dewclaws (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.3 to 2.6), and greater weight-to-height ratio (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.0). Odds of injury decreased with increasing age of the dog (OR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.86). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results should be cautiously interpreted because of potential respondent and recall bias and lack of review of medical records. Nevertheless, results suggested that retaining healthy dewclaws, maintaining lean body mass, and trimming nails short for training and competition may decrease the likelihood of digit injuries. Research to investigate training practices, obstacle construction specifcations, and surface considerations for dogs competing in agility activities is indicated.

  9. High-risk respiratory patients' experiences of bronchoscopy with conscious sedation and analgesia: A qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxon, Catherine; Fulbrook, Paul; Fong, Kwun M; Ski, Chantal F

    2017-10-20

    To understand the experiences of high-risk respiratory patients undergoing bronchoscopy with conscious sedation. Due to possible complications, high-risk respiratory patients are usually given smaller, cautious doses of sedation and analgesia for bronchoscopy. Described as "conscious sedation," this facilitates depression of the patient's consciousness without causing respiratory compromise. Previously, studies have investigated patient experience using quantitative methods. This is the first study that has explored the patient experience during bronchoscopy from a qualitative perspective. Qualitative, phenomenological approach as described by Van Manen. The setting was an endoscopy unit within an Australian tertiary hospital. Unstructured interviews were conducted with 13 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who underwent day-case bronchoscopy. All participants received conscious sedation. They were interviewed twice, within a week, postprocedure. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using Van Manen's interpretive approach. Participants had varying experiences. Five themes emerged from the analysis: Frustration and fear; Comfort and safety; Choking and coughing; Being aware; and Consequences. Whilst not all participants experienced procedural awareness or remembered it, for those who did it was a significant event. Overall, experiences were found to be negative; however, participants accepted and tolerated them, perceiving them as necessary to obtain a diagnostic result. The findings demonstrate that often patients are aware during the procedure and their experience may be uncomfortable and distressing. These findings have implications for patient preparation pre- and post-bronchoscopy in terms of what they might expect, and to discuss what has happened after the procedure. Some practices of the bronchoscopy team during the procedure may need modification. For example, in anticipation of the possibility that the patient may be aware

  10. Risk associated with bee venom therapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jeong Hwan; Yim, Bo Kyung; Lee, Jun-Hwan; Lee, Sanghun; Kim, Tae-Hun

    2015-01-01

    The safety of bee venom as a therapeutic compound has been extensively studied, resulting in the identification of potential adverse events, which range from trivial skin reactions that usually resolve over several days to life-threating severe immunological responses such as anaphylaxis. In this systematic review, we provide a summary of the types and prevalence of adverse events associated with bee venom therapy. We searched the literature using 12 databases from their inception to June 2014, without language restrictions. We included all types of clinical studies in which bee venom was used as a key intervention and adverse events that may have been causally related to bee venom therapy were reported. A total of 145 studies, including 20 randomized controlled trials, 79 audits and cohort studies, 33 single-case studies, and 13 case series, were evaluated in this review. The median frequency of patients who experienced adverse events related to venom immunotherapy was 28.87% (interquartile range, 14.57-39.74) in the audit studies. Compared with normal saline injection, bee venom acupuncture showed a 261% increased relative risk for the occurrence of adverse events (relative risk, 3.61; 95% confidence interval, 2.10 to 6.20) in the randomized controlled trials, which might be overestimated or underestimated owing to the poor reporting quality of the included studies. Adverse events related to bee venom therapy are frequent; therefore, practitioners of bee venom therapy should be cautious when applying it in daily clinical practice, and the practitioner's education and qualifications regarding the use of bee venom therapy should be ensured.

  11. Risk associated with bee venom therapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeong Hwan Park

    Full Text Available The safety of bee venom as a therapeutic compound has been extensively studied, resulting in the identification of potential adverse events, which range from trivial skin reactions that usually resolve over several days to life-threating severe immunological responses such as anaphylaxis. In this systematic review, we provide a summary of the types and prevalence of adverse events associated with bee venom therapy.We searched the literature using 12 databases from their inception to June 2014, without language restrictions. We included all types of clinical studies in which bee venom was used as a key intervention and adverse events that may have been causally related to bee venom therapy were reported.A total of 145 studies, including 20 randomized controlled trials, 79 audits and cohort studies, 33 single-case studies, and 13 case series, were evaluated in this review. The median frequency of patients who experienced adverse events related to venom immunotherapy was 28.87% (interquartile range, 14.57-39.74 in the audit studies. Compared with normal saline injection, bee venom acupuncture showed a 261% increased relative risk for the occurrence of adverse events (relative risk, 3.61; 95% confidence interval, 2.10 to 6.20 in the randomized controlled trials, which might be overestimated or underestimated owing to the poor reporting quality of the included studies.Adverse events related to bee venom therapy are frequent; therefore, practitioners of bee venom therapy should be cautious when applying it in daily clinical practice, and the practitioner's education and qualifications regarding the use of bee venom therapy should be ensured.

  12. Rethinking risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloman, H.F.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to bring together the ideas of those who currently practice the many different forms of risk management on a global basis. These forms include guidance of public policy on macro risks, risk financing and insurance for many larger commercial organizations, managing credit, currency and interest rate risks for financial institutions, plus other extensions of risk management including security, quality control, and quality assurance in a health-care environment

  13. A background of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffiths, R.F.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is reviewed under the headings: introduction (historical and general description of harm, hazards and risk and attempts to define them); expressions of risk (individual risk; fatal accident frequency rate; expressions of risk in terms of deaths suffered per unit of activity; loss of life expectancy; frequency vs consequence lines); comparability of risks. The examples include some references to radiation hazards and reactor accidents. (U.K.)

  14. [Risk control of traditional Chinese medicines containing aristolochis acids (AAs) based on influencing factors of content of AAs].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Jing-Zhuo; Liang, Ai-Hua; Liu, Jing; Zhang, Bo-Li

    2017-12-01

    Aristolochic acids (AAs) widely exist in such plants as Aristolochia and Asarum. The renal toxicity of AAs as well as its carcinogenicity to urinary system have been widely known. In 2003 and 2004, China prohibited the use of Aristolochiae Radix, Aristolochiae Manshuriensis Caulis and Aristolochiae Fangchi Radix, and required administering other AAs-containing medicines in accordance with the regulations for prescription drugs. In this paper, we retrieved literatures on the content determination of AAs in recent 10 years in China. It suggested that the AAs content is lower in Asarum herb, especially in its roots and rhizomes, and most of which do not show detectable amount of AA-I. Some of traditional Chinese medicines show fairly small amount of detectable AA-I. The AAs content in Aristolochia herb (including Fructus Aristolochiae, kaempfer dutchmanspipe root) is relatively high; however, there are fewer literatures for studying the content determination of AAs in Chinese patent medicines. There were many factors affecting AAs content, including the parts used, origins, processing methods, extraction process. It suggested that we should pay attention to the toxicity of Chinese medicines containing AAs and use these decoction pieces and traditional Chinese medicines cautiously. In addition, basic studies for the origins, processing methods and extraction process of Chinese patent medicines containing AAs, as well as supervision and detection of AAs content in traditional Chinese medicinal materials, decoction pieces and Chinese patent medicines shall be strengthened for reducing medication risk and guaranteeing clinical medication safety. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

  15. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  16. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  17. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  18. Risk perception versus seismic risk: An introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubeddu, Francesca

    2015-01-01

    A seismic event generally has consequences on the social relationships, economy and culture of the impacted territory. As Mary Douglas quotes, a change into the social perception of risk as consequence of an earthquake may have effects on the lifestyle of the local community. The above mentioned statement is the starting point of this article. illustrating the difference between peril and risk is the second point. According to the Aristotelian theory of categories, risk can be considered as a human characteristic depending on social and cultural factors. Risk is here intended as a social category and cannot be de facto reported as a statistical or stochastic function based on a mathematical formula, as long assumed in the past. This approach, then, requires a deep revision. In this sense, and following the concept of risk perception, seismic risk is analysed in this article in terms of impacts, precautionary measures, risk assessment and management. Knowledge of this topic cannot be intended as a simple philosophical exercise, since right on awareness depend risk reduction, humans and goods too [it

  19. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  20. Risk perception and credibility of risk communication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sjoeberg, L

    1992-10-01

    Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs.

  1. Risk perception and credibility of risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeberg, L.

    1992-10-01

    Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs

  2. Preferences over Social Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten; Rutström, E. Elisabet

    2013-01-01

    that subjects systematically reveal different risk attitudes in a social setting with no prior knowledge about the risk preferences of others compared to when they solely bear the consequences of the decision. However, we also find that subjects are significantly more risk averse when they know the risk......We elicit individual preferences over social risk. We identify the extent to which these preferences are correlated with preferences over individual risk and the well-being of others. We examine these preferences in the context of laboratory experiments over small, anonymous groups, although...... the methodological issues extend to larger groups that form endogenously (e.g., families, committees, communities). Preferences over social risk can be closely approximated by individual risk attitudes when subjects have no information about the risk preferences of other group members. We find no evidence...

  3. Decreasing Relative Risk Premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    relative risk premium in the small implies decreasing relative risk premium in the large, and decreasing relative risk premium everywhere implies risk aversion. We finally show that preferences with decreasing relative risk premium may be equivalently expressed in terms of certain preferences on risky......We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 > y1. We define the relative risk...... premium as the quotient between the risk premium and the increase in wealth y1–x which the decision maker puts on the line by choosing the lottery in place of receiving y1 with certainty. We study preferences such that the relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine...

  4. Diversity in Risk Communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agung Nur Probohudono

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the communication of the five major categories of risk (business, strategy, market and credit risk disclosure over the volatile 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC time period in key South East Asian countries’ manufacturing listed companies. This study is important as it contributes to the literature by providing insights into the voluntary risk disclosure practices using sample countries with different economic scenarios. Key findings are that business risk is the most disclosed category and strategy risk is the least disclosed. Business and credit risk disclosure consistently increase over the three year period, while operating, market and strategy risk disclosure increase in 2008, but then decrease slightly in 2009. Statistical analysis reveals that country of incorporation and size help predict risk disclosure levels. The overall low disclosure levels (26-29% highlight the potential for far higher communication of key risk factors.

  5. Risk, Resources and Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyng Jensen, Jesper; Ponsaing, Claus Due; Thrane, Sof

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we describe a basic mechanism by which risk events can induce indirect value losses to the risk owner: a value loss arising from a risk event interfering with activities that have no logical connection with the risk event other than that of having the same owner; a mechanism we...... to large risk events is to mitigate the consequences of the risk event through negotiating with the environment. If such negotiations fail, the subject will have no alternative but to let other activities and projects under direct control of the risk owner suffer. We end the article with conjectures....... The risk cost component presented in this article, whose existence has previously been argued in the risk literature, has been documented in a single factorial experiment with a unique simulation device named Risky Business. Through our experiments, we have shown that the first response of subjects exposed...

  6. Risk management overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGovern, S.

    1995-01-01

    Launching of the first natural gas contract by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in April 1990 was a huge success which allowed natural gas to surpass crude oil as the most successful launch of any commodity contract. Despite this unprecedented initial success it must be kept in mind that in a competitive marketplace there are risks of many kinds (market risks, price risks, basis risks, currency risks and timing risks), that parties must deal with in everyday operations. The concept of risk management was defined, techniques and issues in risk management were explained, a glossary of fully explained industry terms, and basic financial tools most often used in risk management, were provided. 11 figs

  7. Fracture Risk and Risk Factors for Osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schürer, Christian; Wallaschofski, Henri; Nauck, Matthias; Völzke, Henry; Schober, Hans-Christof; Hannemann, Anke

    2015-05-25

    As the population ages, diseases of the elderly are becoming more common, including osteoporosis. Ways to assess the risk of fracture and the distribution and effects of known risk factors for osteoporosis will be important in planning for future healthcare needs, as well as in the development of preventive strategies. The study population included 6029 men and women aged 20-90 who underwent examination in the second follow-up wave of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-2) or in the basal SHIP-Trend Study. The risk of fracture was estimated on the basis of quantitative ultrasonography of the calcaneus. Prior fractures and risk factors for osteoporosis were ascertained in standardized interviews. 4.6% of the male subjects and 10.6% of the female subjects were judged to have an elevated risk of fracture. The corresponding percentages among subjects over age 65 were 8.8% for men and 28.2% for women. Even among subjects under age 55, risk factors for osteoporosis were associated with lower bone stiffness: the mean stiffness index was 103/98 (men/women) without risk factors, 99/96 with one risk factor, and 93/95 with more than one risk factor. Logistic regression analysis yielded an odds ratio of 1.89 (95% confidence interval: 1.44-2.50; p<0.01) for prevalent fractures among subjects aged 75 and older compared to subjects under age 55. The data indicate a high prevalence of osteoporosis from age 65 onward. These findings are consistent with those of other studies from Germany and across Europe. Younger men and women should already begin taking steps to counteract modifiable risk factors.

  8. Cautious Use of Intrathecal Baclofen in Walking Spastic Patients: Results on Long-term Follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dones, Ivano; Nazzi, Vittoria; Tringali, Giovanni; Broggi, Giovanni

    2006-04-01

    Intrathecal baclofen is presently the most effective treatment for diffuse spasticity whatever the cause. The fact that both spasticity is always accompanied by a degree of muscle weakness and that any antispastic treatment causes a decrease in muscle strength indicate that major attention must be paid in treating spasticity in ambulant patients. Methods.  We present here a retrospective study, approved by the insitutional ethics committee, of 22 ambulant spastic patients, selected as homogeneous for disease and disease duration, who were treated with intrathecal baclofen at the Istituto Nazionale Neurologico "C.Besta" in Milan. These patients were followed-up for to 15 years of treatment and their clinical assessment was enriched by the evaluation of their functional independence measurement (FIM) before and during treatment. Results.  There was improvement in quality of life as measured by the FIM scale; however, an increase in the patient's motor performance could not be detected. Conclusion.  Although we did not show any improvement in muscle performance, intrathecal baclofen did improve daily quality of life, even in spastic patients who were able to walk.

  9. A study on relationship among free cash flow, firm value and investors’ cautiousness: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ghodrati

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Financial statements as well as financial standards are always considered as primary sources for getting rich information of firms. The standards are normally divided in two categories of economic and accounting and each of these standards shows one of the specifications of the company and has its own advantageous and disadvantageous. There are different standards, which are used for firm assessment. Therefore, a company with more gained prominences has more change to succeed in attracting credits and financing from the capital market. Under such circumstances, such a company can attract more finance and it can be sold sooner on the stock exchange. This paper tries to investigate on the free cash flow as an effective factor in specifying the real value of the business enterprises on 56 selected firms from Tehran Stock Exchange. The results of this study have disclosed that, there was a direct and meaningful relationship between free cash flow of the business enterprises and their real values. Second, the real values of the business enterprises are more than their predicted values. Finally, the predicted value of the business enterprises on the basis of the free cash flow is more than their market value.

  10. Connecticut Takes a Cautious First Step in Establishing a Statewide, Interactive, Distance Learning Cable Franchise Operator Interconnection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietras, Jesse John

    Remote education has arrived in Connecticut and is promising to expand, as this discussion of its development, progress, and difficulties demonstrates. In June 1993, state legislation mandated a feasibility study of ways to bring about bidirectional educational programming among Connecticut's 26 cable-franchise operators. Cost allocation for the…

  11. Long-Term Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on Streamwater Salinity in New York State: INCA Simulations Offer Cautious Optimism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutchess, Kristina; Jin, Li; Ledesma, José L J; Crossman, Jill; Kelleher, Christa; Lautz, Laura; Lu, Zunli

    2018-02-06

    The long-term application of road salts has led to a rise in surface water chloride (Cl - ) concentrations. While models have been used to assess the potential future impacts of continued deicing practices, prior approaches have not incorporated changes in climate that are projected to impact hydrogeology in the 21st century. We use an INtegrated CAtchment (INCA) model to simulate Cl - concentrations in the Tioughnioga River watershed. The model was run over a baseline period (1961-1990) and climate simulations from a range of GCMs run over three 30-year intervals (2010-2039; 2040-2069; 2070-2099). Model projections suggest that Cl - concentrations in the two river branches will continue to rise for several decades, before beginning to decline around 2040-2069, with all GCM scenarios indicating reductions in snowfall and associated salt applications over the 21st century. The delay in stream response is most likely attributed to climate change and continued contribution of Cl - from aquifers. By 2100, surface water Cl - concentrations will decrease to below 1960s values. Catchments dominated by urban lands will experience a decrease in average surface water Cl - , although moderate compared to more rural catchments.

  12. Scientific and Technical Cooperation Between National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and Kyiv City State Administration: Cautious Optimism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahorodniy, A.G.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The experience of scientific and technical cooperation between National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and Kyiv City State Administration is summarized. Brief description of innovative projects approved for implementation in 2015 on the introduction of the elaborations of the institutions of NAS of Ukraine into the urban economy is presented.

  13. Observations on risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

  14. Project Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jr., R. F. Miles

    1995-01-01

    Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.

  15. Risk, Uncertainty, and Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam

    2016-01-01

    21288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler. Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss...... aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique...... feature of entrepreneurs: their willingness to risk losses....

  16. Risk, Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam

    . Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore...... entrepreneurs to managers – a suitable comparison group – and employees (n = 2288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler...... suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique feature of entrepreneurs; their willingness to risk losses....

  17. Gender, risk and journalism

    OpenAIRE

    Harris, Janet; Mosdell, Nicholas; Griffiths, James

    2016-01-01

    Are female journalists more at risk in covering conflict than their male colleagues? \\ud Beck states ‘risk is the anticipation of the catastrophe – so it is existent and non-existent’. Is the contention that female journalists are more at risk, knowledge, or a construction of knowledge? Are Editors and journalists who decide that women are more at risk merely anticipating a catastrophe? There is no certainty that women would be more at risk, but the fear that women are more at risk can preven...

  18. Cyber risk in banking

    OpenAIRE

    Linert, Jan

    2015-01-01

    The bachelor thesis deals with the cyber risk in banking industry. Its main goal is to stress the imporatance of cyber risk both verbally and numericaly and review the approach of banks to this risk. The first part of this thesis specifies what cyber risk is and how it fits among other operational risks, presents the common cyber-attacks and archetypes of cyber criminals, later it delves into the cyber risk in Czech Republic and at the end of this part it mentions the legislation that covers ...

  19. Viability and Risk Assessment in Species Restoration: Planning Reintroductions for the Wild Boar, a Potential Disease Reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Néstor Fernández

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The reintroduction of large mammals is often considered a priority conservation action in highly industrialized countries in which many of these species have been depleted. However, species reintroduction after decades of absence may involve important risks for human activities and ecological communities, such as favoring the spread of diseases. An example of a potentially troublesome reintroduction is the wild boar, which may act as a reservoir of diseases, e.g., classical swine fever, and cause high economic losses, and has become a species of concern in several European countries for both ecological and recreational reasons. Failure to prevent the disease consequences of species restoration can negate its conservation benefits. Here we evaluated the probability of both successfully reintroducing wild boar into Denmark and limiting their contact with domestic pig farms to which they might spread disease. For this purpose, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based population model that incorporates information on boar habitat and demography information from Central European populations. We then compared model predictions with the spatial distribution of farms to achieve a spatial assessment of the contact risk. The most restrictive model scenario predicted that nearly 6% of Denmark provides habitat conditions that would allow wild boar to reproduce. The best habitats for reintroduction were aggregated in seven different areas throughout the country in which the extinction probability was < 5%. However, the expected population expansion was very limited in most of these areas. Both the number of suitable areas and the potential for population expansion greatly increased when we relaxed our habitat assumptions about boar forest requirements; this provided a more conservative scenario for a cautious risk analysis. We additionally found that part of the risk of contact with piggeries was associated with the magnitude of the expansion

  20. Risk management and energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlevaro, F.; Romerio, F.

    1992-01-01

    In five sessions the following topics were dealt with: risk problems, risk analysis and evaluation tools, risks in industrial societies, risks of energy production, technological risks, ethics and political-social consensus. figs., tabs., refs

  1. Risk and society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tubiana, M.; Vrousos, C.; Pages, J.P.; Carde, C.

    1999-01-01

    This book brings together the communications presented at the colloquium 'risk and society' held in Paris (France) on November 1998. During this colloquium, the various aspects of risk and of its management were discussed by medical specialists, historians, industrialists, engineers, philosophers, lawyers, politicians and administration representatives. The first theme concerns the controversies generated by the development of some activities (genetics, bio-technologies, nuclear and radiations use). The second theme concerns the management of risks and the way to conciliate the point of view of authorities and citizens (confidence of the public with respect to experts, scientists, industrialists, government and administrative representatives, role played by the media). The debates that took place during the colloquium have shown that the public opinion concerning the nuclear activities or the new technologies greatly depends on the ideological attitudes and on the public's likes and dislikes with respect to some categories of actors (distrust with respect to public decisions, fears with respect to changes and future, nostalgia of the past). The following aspects are reviewed: Notions of risk and hazard (risk and health, risk in today's society, medicine and society, the point of view of the industrialists and of the scientific and technical specialists); from the psychological aspects of the risk to its social aspects (survey of the risk assessment battlefield, social attenuation and amplification of risk, the feeling of risks in Europe, insecurity and delinquency, controversies around radioactivity and health); the negotiation and communication about risks (risk and public health, negotiation around risks, risks and information dissemination about the public debate, communication and crisis, evolution of risk communication, comparison between American and European approaches, the Seveso directive); the public debate and the evolution of risks management (the

  2. Risk management guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briscoe, G.J.

    1977-06-01

    Risk management requires an assessment or a knowledge of risk. This, in turn, requires identification of hazards (sources of risk) and a determination of risk (evaluation of the hazard degree). The hazard identification and risk analysis techniques presented in this Guide are, in general, based on the MORT concept that accidents result from unwanted energy flow in the absence of adequate controls and/or barriers. This Guide presents an analytical tree designed to prevent oversight of specific energy sources in risk identification. Hazard identification by field personnel is also discussed. Quantitative risk analysis is discussed in the following section. A method for summary of the risks for each energy classification is given. This method uses a graphical log-normal projection so that low probability events, which are not adequately represented in the experience data, are included in the risk assessment. This permits a more acceptable risk assessment since catastrophes are not ignored, even though the actual risk is only approximated. In addition, a few examples of risk analysis of specific hazards are given. Rudimentary probability and fault tree theory are used in these examples. Total risk assessment and resource allocation and safety performance trend analysis are discussed

  3. Roles of children and their parents in the reduction of radiation risk after the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitamura, Akiko

    2017-01-01

    Introduction On March 11, 2011, Japan experienced its largest recorded earthquake with a magnitude of 9.0. The resulting tsunami caused massive damage to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant reactors, and the surrounding environment was contaminated with radioactive materials. During this period, some residents were exposed to high levels of radiation (up to 5 millisieverts [mSv]), but since then, many residents have been exposed to low levels of radiation (effects of lifestyle and attitude factors on external radiation exposure among Fukushima residents. Methods This community-based, cross-sectional study was conducted in Nihonmatsu City of the Fukushima Prefecture from May to July 2014. The population survey targeted 6,884 children between the ages of 0–15 years, and a personal radiation badge and questionnaire were administered to each of the residences. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to assess the impact of lifestyle and attitude factors on external radiation dose. Results The study participants (population size [n] = 4,571) had an additional mean radiation dose of 0.65 mSv/year, which is small as compared to the mean radiation dose 6 months after the disaster (1.5 mSv/year), in 2012 (1.5 mSv/year), and in 2013 (1.0 mSv/year). External radiation doses statistically varied by socio-demographic and lifestyle factors. Participants living in wooden residences (p-value<0.001) and within 100 meters of a forest (p = 0.001) had higher radiation exposure. Conversely, participants with a cautious attitude towards radiation had lower radiation exposure (beta [b] = -0.124, p = 0.003). Conclusion Having a cautious attitude towards radiation and being aware of exposure risks proved to be significant in the reduction of external radiation dose. Therefore, in the event of future radiation disasters, attitudes towards and awareness of radiation should be considered in the reduction of exposure risk and implementation of radiation protection. PMID:29236725

  4. Risk management at university

    OpenAIRE

    Ivanova, H.; Abramovich, S.

    2013-01-01

    This article observes the basic recommendations for the risk management system in higher education as an example Yanka Kupala State University of Grodno. Consider the risk-management standard that based in a process approach

  5. Technical risk and society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindackers, K.H.

    1983-01-01

    The report explains the possibilities and limits of risk analysis, risk assessment by the citizen, especially in hearings in the course of licensing procedures, and decisive causes why assessments on the part of the citizens may fail. (HP) [de

  6. Management of business risks

    OpenAIRE

    BAZARBAY A.

    2015-01-01

    The article presents methodological ideas concerning the problem of risk management. Special attention is paid to increasing of enterprises' operating efficiency by means of risk-management system development in business organizations.

  7. Fuzzy risk matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markowski, Adam S.; Mannan, M. Sam

    2008-01-01

    A risk matrix is a mechanism to characterize and rank process risks that are typically identified through one or more multifunctional reviews (e.g., process hazard analysis, audits, or incident investigation). This paper describes a procedure for developing a fuzzy risk matrix that may be used for emerging fuzzy logic applications in different safety analyses (e.g., LOPA). The fuzzification of frequency and severity of the consequences of the incident scenario are described which are basic inputs for fuzzy risk matrix. Subsequently using different design of risk matrix, fuzzy rules are established enabling the development of fuzzy risk matrices. Three types of fuzzy risk matrix have been developed (low-cost, standard, and high-cost), and using a distillation column case study, the effect of the design on final defuzzified risk index is demonstrated

  8. Canadian nuclear risk experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamel, P.E.

    1982-05-01

    Risk assessment in the Canadian nuclear fuel cycle is a very important and complex subject. Many levels of government are involved in deciding the acceptable limits for the risks, taking into account the benefits for society [fr

  9. [Global risk management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sghaier, W; Hergon, E; Desroches, A

    2015-08-01

    Risk management is a fundamental component of any successful company, whether it is in economic, societal or environmental aspect. Risk management is an especially important activity for companies that optimal security challenge of products and services is great. This is the case especially for the health sector institutions. Risk management is therefore a decision support tool and a means to ensure the sustainability of an organization. In this context, what methods and approaches implemented to manage the risks? Through this state of the art, we are interested in the concept of risk and risk management processes. Then we focus on the different methods of risk management and the criteria for choosing among these methods. Finally we highlight the need to supplement these methods by a systemic and global approach including through risk assessment by the audits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  10. Stroke - risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... oxygen. Brain cells can die, causing lasting damage. Risk factors are things that increase your chance of ... a disease or condition. This article discusses the risk factors for stroke and things you can do ...

  11. Risk and cognition

    CERN Document Server

    Faucher, Colette

    2015-01-01

    This book presents recent research using cognitive science to apprehend risk situations and elaborate new organizations, new systems and new methodological tools in response. The book demonstrates the reasons, advantages and implications of the association of the concepts of cognition and risk. It is shown that this association has strong consequences on how to apprehend critical situations that emerge  within various activity domains, and how to elaborate responses to these critical situations.. The following topics are covered by the book: ·     Influence of the culture in risk management, ·     Influence of the risk communication in risk management, ·     User-centred design to improve risk situation management, ·     Designing new tools to assist risk situation management, ·     Risk prevention in industrial activities.

  12. Risk a multidisciplinary introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Straub, Daniel; Welpe, Isabell

    2014-01-01

    This is a unique book addressing the integration of risk methodology from various fields. It stimulates intellectual debate and communication across disciplines, promotes better risk management practices and contributes to the development of risk management methodologies. Book chapters explain fundamental risk models and measurement, and address risk and security issues from diverse areas such as finance and insurance, health sciences, life sciences, engineering and information science. Integrated Risk Sciences is an emerging field, that considers risks in different fields aiming at a common language, and at sharing and improving methods developed in different fields. Readers should have a Bachelor degree and at least one basic university course in statistics and probability. The main goal of the book is to provide basic knowledge on risk and security in a common language; the authors have taken particular care to ensure that each chapter can be understood by doctoral students and researchers across disciplin...

  13. Do Geriatric Conditions Increase Risk of Adverse Drug Reactions in Ambulatory Elders? Results From the VA GEM Drug Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanlon, Joseph T.; Sloane, Richard J.; Boscardin, W. John; Schmader, Kenneth E.

    2011-01-01

    Background. Many clinicians prescribe cautiously to older adults with common geriatric conditions for fear of causing adverse drug reactions (ADRs). However, little is known about the association between these conditions and risk of ADRs. Methods. Using data from the VA Geriatric Evaluation and Management Drug Study, we determined any, preventable, and serious ADRs in 808 elders for 12 months after hospital discharge using a validated process involving patient self-report and chart review adjudicated by two health care professionals. Eight common geriatric conditions (activities of daily living, dementia, incontinence, falls, difficulty ambulating, malnourishment, depression, and prolonged bed rest) were evaluated at study baseline through self-report and structured assessments. We used Poisson regression to model the relationship between these geriatric conditions and ADRs. Results. Participants had a mean of 2.9 ± 1.2 geriatric conditions. Over the 12-month follow-up period, 497 ADRs occurred in 269 participants, including 187 ADRs considered preventable and 127 considered severe. On multivariable analyses, participants with dependency in one or more activities of daily living were less likely to suffer ADRs than those who were fully independent (incidence rate ratio: 0.78, 95% confidence interval = 0.62–1.00). None of the other seven geriatric conditions assessed were associated with ADR risk. Results were similar for preventable and serious ADRs, although participants with a history of falls were more likely to develop serious ADRs (incidence rate ratio: 1.49, 95% confidence interval = 1.00–2.21). Conclusions. Many geriatric conditions were not associated with risk of ADRs. Although it is prudent to prescribe judiciously in patients with these conditions, excessive caution may not be warranted. PMID:21321003

  14. Depression and Anxiety Prevention Based on Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for At-Risk Adolescents: A Meta-Analytic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanne P. A. Rasing

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Depression and anxiety disorders are among the most common mental disorders during adolescence. During this life phase, the incidence of these clinical disorders rises dramatically, and even more adolescents suffer from symptoms of depression or anxiety that are just below the clinical threshold. Both clinical and subclinical levels of depression or anxiety symptoms are related to decreased functioning in various areas, such as social and academic functioning. Prevention of depression and anxiety in adolescents is therefore imperative. We conducted a meta-analytic review of the effects of school-based and community-based prevention programs that are based on cognitive behavioral therapy with the primary goal preventing depression, anxiety, or both in high risk adolescents. Articles were obtained by searching databases and hand searching reference lists of relevant articles and reviews. The selection process yielded 32 articles in the meta-analyses. One article reported on two studies and three articles reported on both depression and anxiety. This resulted in a total of 36 studies, 23 on depression and 13 on anxiety. For depression prevention aimed at high risk adolescents, meta-analysis showed a small effect of prevention programs directly after the intervention, but no effect at 3–6 months and at 12 months follow-up. For anxiety prevention aimed at high risk adolescents, no short-term effect was found, nor at 12 months follow-up. Three to six months after the preventive intervention, symptoms of anxiety were significantly decreased. Although effects on depression and anxiety symptoms were small and temporary, current findings cautiously suggest that depression and anxiety prevention programs based on CBT might have small effects on mental health of adolescents. However, it also indicates that there is still much to be gained for prevention programs. Current findings and possibilities for future research are discussed in order to further

  15. Risk in International Business

    OpenAIRE

    Canavan, Deirdre; Sharkey Scott, Pamela

    2012-01-01

    Risk in international business can stress risk adverse behaviour to counteract foreign market uncertainty or individual entrepreneurial risk taking behaviour dependent on the characteristics of both the business sector and the individual. International business theory would suggest that the perception of risk may differ in situations including where new market entry is incremental, is taken in larger or earlier stages, or indeed whether it may be experienced in a continually fluctuating manne...

  16. Risk estimates for bone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlenker, R.A.

    1982-01-01

    Bone sarcoma data for 226 228 Ra and 224 Ra are analyzed within the dosage ranges where the observed risk is zero. The uncertainty in the risk may be effectively illustrated by using pairs of functions based on a statistically-based measure of confidence. For radiation protection, the appropriate measure of risk is cumulative incidence in the presence of competing risks, as this takes into account the reduction of radiation effects brought about by natural mortality

  17. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....

  18. Credit risk transfer

    OpenAIRE

    Bank for International Settlements

    2003-01-01

    Executive summary Techniques for transferring credit risk, such as financial guarantees and credit insurance, have been a long-standing feature of financial markets. In the past few years, however, the range of credit risk transfer (CRT) instruments and the circumstances in which they are used have widened considerably. A number of factors have contributed to this growth, including: greater focus by banks and other financial institutions on risk management; a more rigorous approach to risk/re...

  19. Risk management for whales

    OpenAIRE

    Cont, R; Wagalath, L

    2016-01-01

    We propose framework for modeling portfolio risk which integrates market risk with liquidation costs which may arise in stress scenarios. Our model provides a systematic method for computing liquidation-adjusted risk measures for a portfolio. Calculation of Liquidation-adjusted VaR (LVaR) for sample portfolios reveals a substantial impact of liquidation costs on portfolio risk for portfolios with large concentrated positions.

  20. Risks and perceptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, T.

    1987-01-01

    The article on the risks and perceptions of nuclear power was previously published in the Times Higher Education Supplement, May 1987. The public attitude towards risks associated with nuclear power, compared with other risks in everyday life, is examined. Results of psychological studies of the perceived risk of nuclear power are also discussed. The author argues that fear of nuclear catastrophe is not one which can be brushed aside by statistics or punditry. (UK)

  1. Communication about risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    The conditions, difficulties and possibilities of communication on technological risks are detailed here. There is a description of the types and levels of argument on risks and the risk-concept itself, of the research field of risk communication, of the conceptional frame-work of the working-party, of the research programme and of the chances for a long-term prospect from the group. (DG) [de

  2. IT Risk register

    OpenAIRE

    Kohout, Karel

    2011-01-01

    The theoretical part of the thesis analyzes several selected methodologies and best-practices related to information technology risks management, with focus on documents and guidance developed by ISACA. It builds a set of ideas and basic requirements for effective model of an IT risk register. Strong emphasis is placed on mapping CobiT 4.1 based Risk IT to COBIT 5. The practical part describes implementation of an exploratory web-based IT risk register in Python programming language utilizing...

  3. Nuclear benefits and risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saunders, P

    1987-03-01

    The paper reviews the broader issues that affect nuclear power in a world energy context. The importance of nuclear power as an energy source is described, as well as the environmental effects of different energy sources. The risks associated with the nuclear industry are discussed with respect to: risks due to radiation exposure, risks to workers in the nuclear industry, and risks to the public due to discharges from nuclear installations. (U.K.).

  4. Perception of radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenot, J.

    1992-01-01

    Perception of risks by people depends on many factors, either characterizing the individuals, or specific to the risk sources. The risk concept, which confuses the issue, is precised first. Second, the perception phenomenon is presented as an interactive process involving the individual, the hazard, and the social context. Third, dimensions of perception are listed and used to describe the perception of radiation risks. Finally, the relation between perception and attitude is clarified. (author) 50 refs

  5. Modern bank's credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šabović Šerif

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk is the most important risk banks have to face with. It occurs due to an obligation created because of debtors' capital and interest rate nonpayment. Debtors obligations non-fulfilment may lead to great losses and insolvency in bank's business. Credit risk is the crucial reason of bank's insolvency. Over 80% of bank's balance sheet is exposed to credit risk.

  6. Injuries in epilepsy: a review of its prevalence, risk factors, type of injuries and prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Tellez-Zenteno

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Currently, there is intense clinical research into various aspects of the medical risks relating to epilepsy, including total and cause-specific mortality, accidents and injuries in patients with epilepsy and mortality related with seizures. Seizures occurring in precarious situations and resulting in injuries are still an important concern for patients with epilepsy, their employers and their caregivers. Submersion injuries, motor vehicle accidents, burns, and head injuries are among the most feared epilepsy-related injuries. These concerns seem valid because the hallmark of epilepsy, episodic impairment of consciousness and motor control, may occur during interictal EEG epileptiform discharges, even in the absence of a clinical seizure. In addition, psychomotor comorbidity and side effects of antiepileptic drugs may contribute to the risk of injuries in patients with epilepsy. Published risk factors for injuries include the number of antiepileptic drugs, history of generalized seizures, and seizure frequency. In general, epidemiological information about incidence of injuries has been conflicting and sparse. In general, studies focusing on populations with more severe forms of epilepsy tend to report substantially higher risks of injuries than those involving less selected populations. On the other hand, studies based on non-selected populations of people with epilepsy have not shown an increased frequency of injuries in people with epilepsy compared with the general population. Some studies have shown that patients with epilepsy are more frequently admitted to the hospital following an injury. Possible explanations include: more cautious attitude of clinicians toward injuries occurring in the setting of seizures; hospitalization required because of seizures and not to the injuries themselves; and hospitalization driven by other issues, such as comorbidities, which are highly prevalent in patients with epilepsy. Potentially the high rate of

  7. Cardiovascular risk calculation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    James A. Ker

    2014-08-20

    Aug 20, 2014 ... smoking and elevated blood sugar levels (diabetes mellitus). These risk ... These are risk charts, e.g. FRS, a non-laboratory-based risk calculation, and ... for hard cardiovascular end-points, such as coronary death, myocardial ...

  8. Business history and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Terry Gourvish

    2003-01-01

    CARR, in association with the Centre for Business History, University of Leeds, held a successful workshop on 'Business History and Risk' on 20 February 2002. The workshop, which was sponsored by the ESRC, brought together business historians, economists, accountants and risk analysts to develop an interdisciplinary discussion on understandings of risk by employers, workers and governments in different historical settings.

  9. Cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Peter; Abildstrøm, Steen Z.; Jespersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Aim European society of cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification in asymptomatic individuals is based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm, which estimates individual 10-year risk of death from CVD. We assessed the potential...

  10. Readings in risk

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Glickman, Theodore S; Gough, Michael

    1990-01-01

    ... from Resources for the Future are distributed worldwide by The Johns Hopkins University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Readings in risk I Theodore S. Glickman and Michael Gough, editors. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-915707-55-1 (alk. paper) 1. Technology-Risk assessment. 2. Health risk assessment....

  11. Contact Lens Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... There is a risk of eye infection from bacteria in swimming pool water, hot tubs, lakes and the ocean Replace your contact lens storage case every 3 months or as directed by your eye care professional. Other Risks of Contact Lenses Other risks of contact lenses include pink eye ( ...

  12. Financial Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Catalin-Florinel Stanescu; Laurentiu Mircea Simion

    2011-01-01

    Concerns about the financial risk is increasing. In this climate, companies of all types and sizes want a robust framework for financial risk management to meet compliance requirements, contribute to better decision making and increase performance. Financial risk management professionals working with financial institutions and other corporate clients to achieve these objectives.

  13. Business risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cosby, C.

    2015-01-01

    Bruce Power's definition: an emerging and demonstrable event or change in business plan assumptions that could impact Bruce Power's achievement of its business plan objectives and results. Risks can be either negative (threats) or positive (opportunities). Risks against the 5 year business plan Net Risk = impact * probability.

  14. Business risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cosby, C., E-mail: Christine.cosby@brucepower.com [Bruce Power, Tiverton, ON (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    Bruce Power's definition: an emerging and demonstrable event or change in business plan assumptions that could impact Bruce Power's achievement of its business plan objectives and results. Risks can be either negative (threats) or positive (opportunities). Risks against the 5 year business plan Net Risk = impact * probability.

  15. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  16. Decreasing relative risk premium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Frank

    2007-01-01

    such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...

  17. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  18. Synthetic risks, risk potency, and carcinogen regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viscusi, W K; Hakes, J K

    1998-01-01

    This article analyzes a comprehensive sample of over 350 chemicals tested for carcinogenicity to assess the determinants of the probability of regulation. Controlling for differences in the risk potency and noncancer risks, synthetic chemicals have a significantly higher probability of regulation overall: this is due to the greater likelihood of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulation. Measures of risk potency increase the probability of regulation by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), have a somewhat weaker positive effect on regulation by the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), and decrease the likelihood of regulation by the FDA. The overall regulatory pattern is one in which the FDA targets synthetic chemicals and chemicals that pose relatively minor cancer risk. The EPA particularly performed more sensibly than many critics have suggested.

  19. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  20. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  1. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  2. Individual Property Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael S. Finke

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews household property risk management and estimates normatively optimal choice under theoretical assumptions. Although risk retention limits are common in the financial planning industry, estimates of optimal risk retention that include both financial and human wealth far exceed limits commonly recommended. Households appear to frame property losses differently from other wealth losses leading to wealth-reducing, excess risk transfer. Possible theoretical explanations for excess sensitivity to loss are reviewed. Differences between observed and optimal risk management imply a large potential gain from improved choice.

  3. Life without risk?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hohlneicher, G.; Raschke, E.

    1989-01-01

    Mankind's sensitivity to new, global threats, to chemical and radioactive pollution and to interventions in the biological process actually gives rise to a one-sided and narrow range of reactions. Demands for zero-risk make one forget that a reduced risk many possibly lead to a far more dangerous risk in another place. That no uniform view of things can arise in this way is shown by these articles, from the areas of science, politics and the arts, on questions of world population, waste management, climatic change, genetic manipulation, philosophical and ethical problems of risk acceptance as well as the responsibility for risks. (DG) [de

  4. Agile risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Moran, Alan

    2014-01-01

    This work is the definitive guide for IT managers and agile practitioners. It elucidates the principles of agile risk management and how these relate to individual projects. Explained in clear and concise terms, this synthesis of project risk management and agile techniques is illustrated using the major methodologies such as XP, Scrum and DSDM.Although the agile community frequently cites risk management, research suggests that risk is often narrowly defined and, at best, implicitly treated, which in turn leads to an inability to make informed decisions concerning risk and reward and a poor u

  5. FOREIGN CURRENCY RISK HEDGING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela SUDACEVSCHI

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the traditional types of exchange rate risk faced by firms and some of principal methods of exchange risk management that a company which make foreign currency operations can use. Foreign currency risk management involves both assessing the risk faced by the companies and adopting measures for the risk hedging or reduce the damage it may cause. The damages result from the company’s unfavorable difference between the exchange rates of the currencies in which the transactions are made.

  6. riskRegression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ozenne, Brice; Sørensen, Anne Lyngholm; Scheike, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    In the presence of competing risks a prediction of the time-dynamic absolute risk of an event can be based on cause-specific Cox regression models for the event and the competing risks (Benichou and Gail, 1990). We present computationally fast and memory optimized C++ functions with an R interface...... for predicting the covariate specific absolute risks, their confidence intervals, and their confidence bands based on right censored time to event data. We provide explicit formulas for our implementation of the estimator of the (stratified) baseline hazard function in the presence of tied event times. As a by...... functionals. The software presented here is implemented in the riskRegression package....

  7. Risk management in Takaful

    OpenAIRE

    Akhter, Waheed

    2010-01-01

    Risk management is of vital importance in Islam and Takāful provides a way to manage risks in business according to Sharī’ah principles. This research paper attempts to identify various types of risks involved in Takāful business that affect operational and investment functions of Takāful operators across the globe. It lays down criteria for Takāful operator to manage those risks effectively. However, Takāful operators often face difficulty in managing market and credit risks as Sharī’ah comp...

  8. MASTERING SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borut Jereb

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Risks in supply chains represent one of the major business issues today. Since every organizationstrives for success and uninterrupted operations, efficient supply chain risk management is crucial.During supply chain risk research at the Faculty of Logistics in Maribor (Slovenia some keyissues in the field were identified, the major being the lack of instruments which can make riskmanagement in an organization easier and more efficient. Consequently, a model which captures anddescribes risks in an organization and its supply chain was developed. It is in accordance with thegeneral risk management and supply chain security standards, the ISO 31000 and ISO 28000families. It also incorporates recent finding from the risk management field, especially from theviewpoint of segmenting of the public.The model described in this paper focuses on the risks itself by defining them by different keydimensions, so that risk management is simplified and can be undertaken in every supply chain andorganizations within them. Based on our mode and consequent practical research in actualorganizations, a freely accessible risk catalog has been assembled and published online from the risksthat have been identified so far. This catalog can serve as a checklist and a starting point in supplychain risk management in organizations. It also incorporates experts from the field into a community,in order to assemble an ever growing list of possible risks and to provide insight into the model andits value in practice.

  9. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  10. Perception of nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenot, J.; Bonnefous, S.; Hubert, Ph.

    1996-01-01

    Many factors are involved in the perception of a risk by individuals. Some are individual related (psychology, knowledge, experience), others describe the social environment (culture, ideology), others at end precise the nature of the risk. The word risk has various meanings and is understood differently by the three main categories involved in risk management, that is engineers, administrators and lay public. Several models which describe the perception phenomenon are presented. The dimensions affecting perception are listed. Based on public opinion poll data, a risk taxonomy is proposed, perceived nuclear risks are compared with other risks, and results are given concerning trust in the information diffused and the credibility of those in charge of nuclear activities. (author)

  11. Measuring Idiosyncratic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunesen, Eva Rytter

    This paper offers two refinements of the traditional risk measure based on the volatility of growth. First, we condition GDP growth on structural characteristics of the host country that move only slowly and therefore can be partly predicted by an investor. Second, we adjust conditional risk...... for the systematic components due to the global and regional interdependence between alternative investment locations. The decomposition of conditional risk into its systematic and idiosyncratic components reveals that not only are African countries on average characterised by a larger conditional risk than Asian...... and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures provide the best...

  12. Low Risk Anomalies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

    This paper shows theoretically and empirically that beta- and volatility-based low risk anomalies are driven by return skewness. The empirical patterns concisely match the predictions of our model that endogenizes the role of skewness for stock returns through default risk. With increasing downside...... risk, the standard capital asset pricing model (CAPM) increasingly overestimates expected equity returns relative to firms' true (skew-adjusted) market risk. Empirically, the profitability of betting against beta/volatility increases with firms' downside risk, and the risk-adjusted return differential...... of betting against beta/volatility among low skew firms compared to high skew firms is economically large. Our results suggest that the returns to betting against beta or volatility do not necessarily pose asset pricing puzzles but rather that such strategies collect premia that compensate for skew risk...

  13. Social amplification of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasperson, R.E.; Renn, O.; Slovic, P.; Kasperson, J.X.; Emani, S.

    1989-01-01

    The risks associated with radioactive and other hazardous waste disposal may be expected to interact with societal processes to enlarge or attenuate the consequences of risks and risk events. This article summarizes a conceptual framework that depicts the social amplification of risk. Using a data base of 128 hazard events that have occurred largely over the past ten years, the authors examine the role of physical consequences, media coverage, and public perceptions of risk in generating social and economic impacts. The analysis concludes that social amplification processes substantially shape the nature and magnitude of those impacts but also that such social amplification appears to be systematically related to characteristics of the risks and risk events

  14. Limit lines for risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, D.C.; Baybutt, P.

    1982-01-01

    Approaches to the regulation of risk from technological systems, such as nuclear power plants or chemical process plants, in which potential accidents may result in a broad range of adverse consequences must take into account several different aspects of risk. These include overall or average risk, accidents posing high relative risks, the rate at which accident probability decreases with increasing accident consequences, and the impact of high frequency, low consequence accidents. A hypothetical complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF), with appropriately chosen parametric form, meets all these requirements. The Farmer limit line, by contrast, places limits on the risks due to individual accident sequences, and cannot adequately account for overall risk. This reduces its usefulness as a regulatory tool. In practice, the CCDF is used in the Canadian nuclear licensing process, while the Farmer limit line approach, supplemented by separate qualitative limits on overall risk, is employed in the United Kingdom

  15. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  16. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  17. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  18. Models of Credit Risk Measurement

    OpenAIRE

    Hagiu Alina

    2011-01-01

    Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...

  19. Risk perception and risk communication: lessons learned

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baillif, L.; Sackur, J.

    1998-01-01

    Industry can master risks but it cannot master the representations people have of these risks. This is why distortions may occur, as the public perceives risks where they are not, or in a totally deformed way. To deal with this type of situation which is dangerous in the long run, both for society and industry, it is necessary to study in detail where and how the difference between real risks and perceived risks is introduced. It then becomes possible to determine what means of action are available to manage the representations and the perceptions of risks. We shall mention two rather different examples of type of direct contact with the industrial reality; in France, we have determined policy of visits of nuclear sites (more than 10 000 people visit Cogema- la Hague site yearly), mainly addressed to school children and people living in the vicinity of the site. During these visits there is of course no question of explaining the detailed operation of the facility or the risks it generates. The purpose is to make the representation of the nuclear industry just as familiar as the representation of another large-scale technology tool: trains, dams,. In a different manner, missions are organised by Cogema - B.N.F.L.- O.R.C. (Overseas reprocessing Committee) to de dramatize the transport of high level vitrified wastes from Europe to Japan. these missions travel through those countries the ship come close to. Here, again, although the target is more the relays of opinion, the effective presence of specialized transport ship is a crucial element in putting a halt to phantasmic representations, as they are born from the remoteness of the object. (N.C.)

  20. Component of the risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

  1. Risk Factors in Derivatives Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raimonda Martinkutė-Kaulienė

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the article is to analyse and present the classification of risks actual to derivative securities. The analysis is based on classical and modern literature findings and analysis of newest statistical data. The analysis led to the conclusion, that the main risks typical for derivatives contracts and their traders are market risk, liquidity risk, credit and counterparty risk, legal risk and transactions risk. Pricing risk and systemic risk is also quite important. The analysis showed that market risk is the most important kind of risk that in many situations influences the level of remaining risks.

  2. Risk of hepatotoxicity associated with the use of telithromycin: a signal detection using data mining algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yan; Guo, Jeff J; Healy, Daniel P; Lin, Xiaodong; Patel, Nick C

    2008-12-01

    With the exception of case reports, limited data are available regarding the risk of hepatotoxicity associated with the use of telithromycin. To detect the safety signal regarding the reporting of hepatotoxicity associated with the use of telithromycin using 4 commonly employed data mining algorithms (DMAs). Based on the Adverse Events Reporting System (AERS) database of the Food and Drug Administration, 4 DMAs, including the reporting odds ratio (ROR), the proportional reporting ratio (PRR), the information component (IC), and the Gamma Poisson Shrinker (GPS), were applied to examine the association between the reporting of hepatotoxicity and the use of telithromycin. The study period was from the first quarter of 2004 to the second quarter of 2006. The reporting of hepatotoxicity was identified using the preferred terms indexed in the Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities. The drug name was used to identify reports regarding the use of telithromycin. A total of 226 reports describing hepatotoxicity associated with the use of telithromycin were recorded in the AERS. A safety problem of telithromycin associated with increased reporting of hepatotoxicity was clearly detected by 4 algorithms as early as 2005, signaling the problem in the first quarter by the ROR and the IC, in the second quarter by the PRR, and in the fourth quarter by the GPS. A safety signal was indicated by the 4 DMAs suggesting an association between the reporting of hepatotoxicity and the use of telithromycin. Given the wide use of telithromycin and serious consequences of hepatotoxicity, clinicians should be cautious when selecting telithromycin for treatment of an infection. In addition, further observational studies are required to evaluate the utility of signal detection systems for early recognition of serious, life-threatening, low-frequency drug-induced adverse events.

  3. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  4. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  5. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  6. Optimizing risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kindred, G.W.

    2000-01-01

    Commercial nuclear power plant management is focussed on the safe, efficient, economical production of electricity. To accomplish the safe aspect of the equation, risk must be determined for the operation and maintenance of the facility. To accomplish the efficient aspect of the equation, management must understand those risks and factor risk insights into their decision process. The final piece of the equation is economical which is accomplished by minimizing, plant outage durations and proper utilization of resources. Probabilistic Risk Assessment can provide the risk insights to accomplish all three; safety, efficiency, and economically. How? Safe production of electricity can be quantified by use of PRA modeling and other risk insights that can determine the core damage frequency. Efficient production of electricity can be influenced by providing management with quantified risk insights for use in decision making. And, one example of economical production of electricity is by not having over conservative deterministic based defense in depth approaches to system maintenance and availability. By using risk-informed insights nuclear safety can be quantified and risk can be managed. Confidence in this approach can be achieved by ensuring the content and quality of the PRA is standardized throughout the industry. The time has arrived for Probabilistic Risk Assessment to take an active position as a major role player in the safe, efficient, and economical operation of commercial nuclear power plants. (author)

  7. Risk of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inhaber, Herbert.

    1978-03-01

    Every human activity involves risk of accident or disease. Generation of energy is no exception. Although such risk has been considered for conventional systems (coal, oil and nuclear), a similar analysis for the so-called alternative or non-conventional systems (solar, wind, ocean thermal and methanol) has been lacking. This paper presents an evaluation of the risk, both occupational and to the public, of non-conventional energy systems. They are considered both in absolute terms and in relation to conventional systems. The risk of most non-conventional systems, per unit of energy output, is comparable to, and in some cases much higher than, the risk from coal and oil. This conclusion holds whether we consider deaths or injuries. Nuclear power and natural gas had the lowest overall risk of the ten technologies considered. Ocean thermal energy ranked third. The surprising result is that the other seven technologies considered were found to be up to 100 times less safe. The total risk is calculated by considering six components: material acquisition and construction, emissions caused by material production, operation and maintenance, energy back-up, energy storage, and transportation. In this way the risk of widely different systems can be fairly assessed. This methodology of 'risk accounting' will not tell us which energy technology to use. However, it can be employed to inform society of the risk inherent in competing energy systems. (author)

  8. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  9. Risk-informed regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, D.R.

    2003-01-01

    In assessing safety for nuclear facilities, regulators have traditionally used a deterministic approach. New techniques for assessing nuclear or radiological risks make it possible for regulators to incorporate risk insights into their regulations. By 'risk-informing' the regulatory processes, independent bodies tasked with protecting the health and safety of the public can focus on those design and operational issues most important to safety. Such an approach is a move away from prescriptive regulations that were based on conservative engineering judgments toward regulations focused on issues that contribute significantly to safety. Despite the availability of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tools, organisations often struggle with how to best use this capability. Most international regulations are still based largely on deterministic analyses that were developed without the benefit of quantitative or measurable estimates of risk. PRA considers issues of risk in a more comprehensive manner by examining a wider spectrum of initiating events and their frequency, and considers the likelihood of events in a rigorous and comprehensive manner. In some countries, nuclear regulators are actively moving toward increasing the use of risk insights in a variety of strategic arenas, including risk-informed technical specifications (operating limits and conditions), in-service inspection and testing, programs, and assessment and enforcement actions. A risk-informed approach enhances the traditional deterministic approach by explicitly considering a broader range of safety challenges, focusing resources on the basis of risk significance, considering a broader range of counter measures to mitigate challenges, and explicitly identifying and quantifying uncertainties in analyses. (author)

  10. Managing risk at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Rutherford, W.A.

    1994-01-01

    Clearly, there is sufficient motivation from Washington for the Hanford community to pay particular attention to the risks associated with the substantial volumes of radiological, hazardous, and mixed waste at Hanford. But there is also another reason for emphasizing risk: Hanford leaders have come to realize that their decisions must consider risk and risk reduction if those decisions are to be technically sound, financially affordable, and publicly acceptable. The 560-square miles of desert land is worth only a few thousand dollars an acre (if that) -- hardly enough to justify the almost two billion dollars that will be spent at Hanford this year. The benefit of cleaning up the Hanford Site is not the land but the reduction of potential risk to the public and the environment for future generations. If risk reduction is our ultimate goal, decisions about priority of effort and resource allocation must consider those risks, now and in the future. The purpose of this paper is to describe how Hanford is addressing the issues of risk assessment, risk management, and risk-based decision making and to share some of our experiences in these areas

  11. Fuel related risks; Braenslerisker

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))

    2012-02-15

    The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from

  12. Risk of new acute myocardial infarction hospitalization associated with use of oral and parenteral non-steroidal anti-inflammation drugs (NSAIDs: a case-crossover study of Taiwan's National Health Insurance claims database and review of current evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shau Wen-Yi

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous studies have documented the increased cardiovascular risk associated with the use of some nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs. Despite this, many old NSAIDs are still prescribed worldwide. Most of the studies to date have been focused on specific oral drugs or limited by the number of cases examined. We studied the risk of new acute myocardial infarction (AMI hospitalization with current use of a variety of oral and parenteral NSAIDs in a nationwide population, and compared our results with existing evidence. Methods We conducted a case-crossover study using the Taiwan's National Health Insurance claim database, identifying patients with new AMI hospitalized in 2006. The 1-30 days and 91-120 days prior to the admission were defined as case and matched control period for each patient, respectively. Uses of NSAIDs during the respective periods were compared using conditional logistic regression and adjusted for use of co-medications. Results 8354 new AMI hospitalization patients fulfilled the study criteria. 14 oral and 3 parenteral NSAIDs were selected based on drug utilization profile among 13.7 million NSAID users. The adjusted odds ratio, aOR (95% confidence interval, for risk of AMI and use of oral and parenteral non-selective NSAIDs were 1.42 (1.29, 1.56 and 3.35 (2.50, 4.47, respectively, and significantly greater for parenteral than oral drugs (p for interaction Conclusions The collective evidence revealed the tendency of increased AMI risk with current use of some NSAIDs. A higher AMI risk associated with use of parenteral NSAIDs was observed in the present study. Ketorolac had the highest associated risk in both oral and parenteral NSAIDs studied. Though further investigation to confirm the association is warranted, prescribing physicians and the general public should be cautious about the potential risk of AMI when using NSAIDs.

  13. Seismic risk perception test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Camassi, Romano; Pino, Nicola Alessandro

    2013-04-01

    The perception of risks involves the process of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about uncertain impacts of events, activities or technologies. In the natural sciences the term risk seems to be clearly defined, it means the probability distribution of adverse effects, but the everyday use of risk has different connotations (Renn, 2008). The two terms, hazards and risks, are often used interchangeably by the public. Knowledge, experience, values, attitudes and feelings all influence the thinking and judgement of people about the seriousness and acceptability of risks. Within the social sciences however the terminology of 'risk perception' has become the conventional standard (Slovic, 1987). The mental models and other psychological mechanisms which people use to judge risks (such as cognitive heuristics and risk images) are internalized through social and cultural learning and constantly moderated (reinforced, modified, amplified or attenuated) by media reports, peer influences and other communication processes (Morgan et al., 2001). Yet, a theory of risk perception that offers an integrative, as well as empirically valid, approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing". To understand the perception of risk is necessary to consider several areas: social, psychological, cultural, and their interactions. Among the various research in an international context on the perception of natural hazards, it seemed promising the approach with the method of semantic differential (Osgood, C.E., Suci, G., & Tannenbaum, P. 1957, The measurement of meaning. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press). The test on seismic risk perception has been constructed by the method of the semantic differential. To compare opposite adjectives or terms has been used a Likert's scale to seven point. The test consists of an informative part and six sections respectively dedicated to: hazard; vulnerability (home and workplace); exposed value (with reference to

  14. What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)

    1979-02-01

    The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.

  15. Price Risk and Risk Management in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udo Broll

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This note studies the risk-management decisions of a risk-averse farmer. The farmer faces multiple sources of price uncertainty. He sells commodities to two markets at two prices, but only one of these markets has a futures market. We show that the farmer’s optimal commodity futures market position, i.e., a cross-hedge strategy, is actually an over-hedge, a full-hedge, or an under-hedge strategy, depending on whether the two prices are strongly positively correlated, uncorrelated, or negatively correlated, respectively.

  16. Nuclear safety research - risk and other risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossin, A.D.

    1982-01-01

    The nuclear power industry deals in many kinds of risks, complicated by political stress and communication problems. Power plant design must prepare for the unexpected attack, physical as well as psychological, but a zero-defects technology is not possible. The public has not been made sufficiently aware of the risk the US takes if there is not enough energy because nuclear power has been curtailed. Energy shortages could drive industry and jobs abroad, force the public to turn to government for a solution, drive the country to energy allocation, and cause a nuclear war. Policies that prevent closing the nuclear fuel cycle are ineffective in preventing proliferation and counterproductive to national needs

  17. 76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-11

    ... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

  18. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  19. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  20. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  1. Ransomware: Minimizing the Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Justin

    2016-01-01

    This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liability risk. The answers published in this column represent those of only one risk management consulting company. Other risk management consulting companies or insurance carriers may provide different advice, and readers should take this into consideration. The information in this column does not constitute legal advice. For legal advice, contact your personal attorney. Note: The information and recommendations in this article are applicable to physicians and other healthcare professionals so "clinician" is used to indicate all treatment team members.

  2. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  3. Risk based modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  4. [Risk factors of schizophrenia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suvisaari, Jaana

    2010-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a multifactorial, neurodevelopmental disorder caused by a combination of genetic and environmental risk factors. Disturbances of brain development begin prenatally, while different environmental insults further affect postnatal brain maturation during childhood and adolescence. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have succeeded in identifying hundreds of new risk variants for common, multifactorial diseases. In schizophrenia research, GWAS have found several rare copy number variants that considerably increase the risk of schizophrenia, and have shown an association between schizophrenia and the major histocompatibility complex. Research on environmental risk factors in recent years has provided new information particularly on risk factors related to pregnancy and childhood rearing environment. Gene-environment interactions have become a central research topic. There is evidence that genetically susceptible children are more vulnerable to the effects of unstable childhood rearing environment and other environmental risk factors.

  5. Entrepreneurs Facing Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zichella, Giulio; Reichstein, Toke

    to choose risk vis-à-vis certainty. Drawing on prospect theory, we formulate hypotheses about the greater likelihood that entrepreneurs (compared to others) will choose risk immediately after a positive gain, but will shy away from risk compared to others as the degree of risk increases. The hypotheses......Theory conjectures that entrepreneurs are more likely than others to make risky choices. However, the empirical evidence is mixed. This paper offers new insights into entrepreneurs’ tendencies to make risky choices, by investigating the circumstances in which entrepreneurs are more/less likely...... are tested using data collected in laboratory-based real money games experiments. We find support for our hypotheses, indicating that entrepreneurs’ bias towards risk is circumstantial. These results have fundamental implications for our understanding of factors guiding entrepreneurial choices under risk...

  6. On risks and acceptability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, S.R.

    1981-01-01

    A very attractive notion is that it should be possible not only to determine how much risk is associated with any particular activity, but also to determine if that risk is acceptable. Stated boldly this seems an entirely unobjectionable and indeed a very acceptable notion. There is, however, underlying this idea, a mistaken view of risk which we might refer to as the ''phlogiston'' theory of risk. In this paper, presented at the SRP meeting on Ethical and Legal Aspects of Radiological Protection, the phlogiston theory of risk is described; secondly, it will be argued that it is too simple a theory to be realistic or useful; and thirdly, the management of risk will be placed in a wider decision framework. Acceptability, it will be argued is highly dependent on context, and it is not possible, therefore, to lay down generally applicable notions of acceptability. (author)

  7. The risk game

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slovic, Paul

    1998-01-01

    In the context of health, safety, and environmental decisions, the concept of risk involves value judgments that reflect much more than just the probability and consequences of the occurrence of an event. This article conceptualizes the act of defining and assessing risk as a game, in which the rules must be socially negotiated within the context of a specific problem. This contextualist view of risk provides insight into why technical approaches to risk management often fail with problems such as those involving radiation and chemicals, where scientific experts and the public disagree on the nature of the risks. It also highlights the need for allowing the interested and affected parties to define and play the game, thus emphasizing the importance of institutional, procedural, and societal processes in risk-management decisions

  8. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  9. Ransomware: Minimizing the Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Pope, Justin

    2016-01-01

    This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liabili...

  10. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  11. Risk evaluation for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freudenthal, A.M.; Schueller, G.I.

    1976-01-01

    The basic principles of the risk analysis, which is based on classical statistics is discussed. The significance of the Asymptotic (Extreme Value) distributions as well as the method of basing the level of acceptable risk on economical optimization procedures is pointed out. The application of the risk analysis to special type structures such as fixed offshore platforms, television towers, reactor containments and the reliability of reactor components under creep and fatigue load is elaborated by carrying out numerical examples. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Value of risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Vik, Marie Amdal

    2012-01-01

    Master's thesis in Risk management The overall aim of this study was to discuss the validity of the hypothesis that risk management contributes with added value to projects and the enterprise holding the projects, and consequently to the enterprise’s stakeholders. To examine this hypothesis, a case study of three projects taken from the same portfolio at Statoil was selected. The projects were said to have an active risk management. Data was collected from the project’s documentation as...

  13. On Modeling Risk Shocks

    OpenAIRE

    Dorofeenko, Victor; Lee, Gabriel; Salyer, Kevin; Strobel, Johannes

    2016-01-01

    Within the context of a financial accelerator model, we model time-varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) through the use of a mixture Normal model with time variation in the weights applied to the underlying distributions characterizing entrepreneur productivity. Specifically, we model capital producers (i.e. the entrepreneurs) as either low-risk (relatively small second moment for productivity) and high-risk (relatively large second moment for productivity) and the fraction of both types is...

  14. Nuclear financial risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.; George, V.P.

    1986-01-01

    This study examines the economy-wide financial risk associated with reactor accidents as a result of various regulatory response options that might be imposed after a serious accident, including partial or complete nuclear moratoria. The authors find that such risks may be two to three times greater than the plant-specific financial risk estimates that have previously been calculated by others (ie 500 million (1985) dollars per reactor year versus 5 to 50 million dollars). (author)

  15. Supply Cain Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Goodwin, Les

    2011-01-01

    “The management of supply chain risk is crucial to any business, more so to Rolls Royce who face an almost doubling of load within the next 10 years. So what is supply chain risk management and how well is it deployed within an operational business of Rolls Royce? What are the tools and techniques available and what are the key issues around implementing world class supply chain risk management with a Supply Chain Unit within Rolls Royce?”

  16. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  17. High-Risk List

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    economy. The World Bank has said that “corruption creates an unfavorable business environment by undermining the operation efficiency of firms and... Bank Began as ‘Ponzi Scheme,’” 11/27/2012. 64 Independent Joint Anti-Corruption Monitoring and Evaluation Committee, Unfinished Business : The Follow...HIGH RISK AREA 7: Oversight 51 HIGH-RISK AREA 8: Strategy and Planning 55 CONCLUSION HIGH RISK LIST I JANUARY 11, 2017 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  18. Supply chain risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Hollstein; Frank Himpel

    2013-01-01

    Background: Supply chain risk management increasingly gains prominence in many international industries. In order to strengthen supply chain structures, processes, and networks, adequate potentials for risk management need to be built (focus on effective logistics) and to be utilized (focus on efficient logistics). Natural-based disasters, such as the case of Fukushima, illustrate how crucial risk management is. Method: By aligning a theoretical-conceptual framework with empirical-induct...

  19. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schull, W.J.; Texas Univ., Houston, TX

    1992-01-01

    Estimation of the risk of cancer following exposure to ionizing radiation remains largely empirical, and models used to adduce risk incorporate few, if any, of the advances in molecular biology of a past decade or so. These facts compromise the estimation risk where the epidemiological data are weakest, namely, at low doses and dose rates. Without a better understanding of the molecular and cellular events ionizing radiation initiates or promotes, it seems unlikely that this situation will improve. Nor will the situation improve without further attention to the identification and quantitative estimation of the effects of those host and environmental factors that enhance or attenuate risk. (author)

  20. Risks: diagnosing and eliminating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuriy A. Tikhomirov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective to develop conceptual theoretical and legal provisions and scientific recommendations on the identification analysis and elimination of risk. Methods universal dialectic method of cognition as well as scientific and private research methods based on it. Results the system was researched of risks diagnostics in the legal sphere and mechanism of influencing the quotrisk situationsquot and their consequences damage to the environment and harm to society. The concept of risk in the legal sphere was formulated the author39s classification of risks in the legal sphere is presented. The rules of analysis evaluation and prevention of risks and the model risk management framework are elaborated. Scientific novelty the mechanism for the identification analysis and elimination of risk has been developed and introduced into scientific circulation the author has proposed the classification and types of risks the reasons and the conditions promoting the risk occurrence. Practical significance the provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in the scientific lawmaking and lawenforcement activity as well as in the educational process of higher educational establishments. nbsp

  1. Air quality risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Martin L

    2008-01-01

    Rather than attempt to provide a comprehensive account of air quality risk assessment, as might be found in a textbook or manual, this article discusses some issues that are of current importance in the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe, with special emphasis on risk assessment in the context of policy formulation, and emerging scientific knowledge. There are two pollutants of particular concern and that both pose challenges for risk assessment and policy, and they are particulate matter (PM) and ozone. The article describes some issues for health risk assessment and finally some forward-looking suggestions for future approaches to air quality management.

  2. Risks of energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pop-Jordanov, J.; Pop-Jordanova, N.

    1989-09-01

    The paper is devoted to comparative health and environmental risks of different energy sources and their influence to public perception, social acceptability and decision-making. The technical heights of the risks, expressed in the number of fatalities of labor and public per unit energy output, from fossil, nuclear and renewable sources are analysed and compared. The complete energy cycle from mining to waste disposal, as well as the future trends, are taken into account. A comparison of the risks of different energy systems with the anticipated global and national energy shares by source is also presented. Furthermore, detailed studies of the non-technical dimensions of the energy risks are performed. Using a modified attitude-behaviour model, the cognitive structure underlying the positions towards different energy options is investigated. Estimating the diverse acting of the risk components, the consequent changes in the rank ordering of the energy sources are deduced. Finally, adding the psychological components nuclear reaches the highest place. In this respect, a unified multidimensional space for the representation of various technological risks is introduced. It affords a comparison of the risks not only by their technical height, but also by other characteristics (involuntary, fearfulness etc.). Finally, it was pointed out that in considering the risk characteristics and constraints, as well as the external fields, a system approach has to be used, taking into account the risks simultaneously with the benefits. 12 refs, 4 figs, 2 tabs

  3. Facing reality minimizes risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallagher, J.L.

    1992-01-01

    Companies that provide technology or project management involving a wise range of risks will increasingly find much more complex contractual relationships with their customers. This is due largely to the pressures exerted on those relationships by third parties. This paper explores the relationships between private contractors and their customers (frequently government agencies) and how risks affect those relationships. Perceptions of risk sometimes outweigh genuine risks, and the distinction between the two is often irrelevant. Media, site neighbors, adversaries, regulators, and national officials often tip the balance between reality and perception

  4. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  5. Motivation for risk sports

    OpenAIRE

    Hlava, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Title: Motivation for risk sports Objectives: The aim of our thesis is to find out primary and secondary motives of athletes for the operation of high-risk sports and coming back to it. We also want to find out what is the starter for doing risk sports. Other questions are why athletes keep doing it and how perceive the potential risk. Methods: In our study, we chose qualitative investigation method and semistructured interview with eight respondents. For the interview, we drew up a list of q...

  6. Is risk analysis scientific?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Certification and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villanueva Fernandez, M.

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays more organizations are increasingly aware of the importance of properly managing the uncertainty of its activities and build competitive advantages through the identification, assessment and management of risks that they face. Risk management is also an aspect of great importance within the new version of ISO fact it is one of the most innovative and also the most laborious, because an appropriate risk management achieves expected results and customer satisfaction. In conclusion, risk management is a new field of business and can be considered a cross-cutting component for other relevant factors of organizational change management. (Author)

  8. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  9. Risks in our society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1985-01-01

    This chapter summarizes quantitative information on risks from a wide variety of sources and analyzes it in terms of life expectancy reduction (LER). The data indicate that the greatest common risk in terms of LER, next to remaining unmarried, is cigarette smoking. When all of the effects of energy production and use (e.g., burning coal, reactor accidents) are totalled, the resulting LER is only about 25 days. It is pointed out that the risks to the residents of the Harrisburg area from radiation caused by the Three Mile Island accident is hundreds of thousands of times smaller than their risk from being overweight

  10. Approaches to acceptable risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whipple, C.

    1997-01-01

    Several alternative approaches to address the question open-quotes How safe is safe enough?close quotes are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, in a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made

  11. Mortgage Default Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chauvet, Marcelle; Gabriel, Stuart; Lutz, Chandler

    2016-01-01

    We use Google search query data to develop a broad-based and real-time index of mortgage default risk. Unlike established indicators, our Mortgage Default Risk Index (MDRI) directly reflects households’concerns regarding their risk of mortgage default. The MDRI predicts housing returns, mortgage ...... delinquency indicators, and subprime credit default swaps. These results persist both in- and out-of-sample and at multiple data frequencies. Together, research findings suggest internet search queries yield valuable new insights into household mortgage default risk....

  12. Agricultural risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mogens; Oksen, Arne; Larsen, Torben U.

    2005-01-01

    A new model for risk management in agriculture is described in the paper. The risk model is constructed as a context dependent process, which includes four main phases. The model is aimed at agricultural advisors, who wish to facilitate and disseminate risk management to farmers. It is developed...... and tested by an action research approach in an attempt to make risk management more applicable on family farms. Our obtained experiences indicate that farmers don’t apply probabilistic thinking and other concepts according to formal decision theory....

  13. Managing power risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rudd, D.C.

    1999-01-01

    Issues regarding the management of financial risks in the electric power market were discussed. The nature of the risk was defined for electricity producers, local utilities, traders/dealers, and brokers, each of which are exposed to different types of risks with the exception of credit risk, which is common to all. The main features of options, swaps, CFDs, bilateral financial contracts, futures contracts and the terms of the NYMEX electricity contract were outlined. Basic derivative strategies, the role of the broker, the elements of emissions trading, and trading strategies for consumers were also explained. 3 fig

  14. Does behaviour modification affect post-stroke risk factor control? Three-year follow-up of a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McManus, Julie Ann; Craig, Alison; McAlpine, Christine; Langhorne, Peter; Ellis, Graham

    2009-02-01

    Little is known about the long-term effectiveness after stroke of interventions for behaviour modification and ensuring concordance with therapies. We describe a follow-up study of a previous randomized controlled trial of a brief period of behaviour modification. The aim of this study was to determine outcomes three years after the initial intervention. Survivors of the original cohort were contacted and asked to attend for follow-up interview, within a geriatric day hospital. This study was carried out in the Geriatric Day Hospital at Stobhill Hospital, Balornock Road, Glasgow. Details of risk factor control, including blood pressure, cholesterol levels and diabetic control, were assessed. Questionnaires used in the initial study were repeated including the Geriatric Depression Scale score, Euroqol Perceived Health Status and Stroke Services Satisfaction Questionnaire. Primary outcome was collective risk factor control. Clinical outcomes including recurrent cerebrovascular events, medication persistence and perceived health status were also recorded. Mean length of follow-up was 3.6 years (SD 0.43). Of the 205 patients enrolled in the initial study, 102 patients attended for repeat interview(49 intervention/53 control). There were no significant differences in the percentage of controlled risk factors between groups (intervention 51.7% versus control 55.9%, P = 0.53). Similarities were observed in the number of recurrent clinical events and medication persistence between groups. No overall difference was observed in perceived health status, satisfaction with care or depression scores. Brief intervention with respect to behaviour modification and risk factor control does not appear to have any long-term benefit. These results must be cautiously interpreted in light of the small study number and further research is required.

  15. General Concepts Regarding Risk Appetite

    OpenAIRE

    Ana-Maria Dinu

    2014-01-01

    Risk appetite is a very complex system, therefore one of the most important element of a company’s enterprise risk management (ERM) is the risk appetite defining. A proper risk management means making good choices towards the risks a company faces in order to achieve its objectives and measures to mitigate those risks, not to avoid them. Therefore, the moment risk appetite is understood and clearly defined can become a powerful tool both for managing the occurred risks and business performanc...

  16. Low Dose Risk, Decisions, and Risk Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flynn, James

    2002-01-01

    The overall research objective was to establish new levels of information about how people, groups, and communities respond to low dose radiation exposure. This is basic research into the social psychology of individual, group, and community responses to radiation exposures. The results of this research are directed to improving risk communication and public participation in management of environmental problems resulting from low dose radiation

  17. Risk of Deep vein thrombosis in neurosurgery: State of the art on prophylaxis protocols and best clinical practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganau, Mario; Prisco, Lara; Cebula, Helene; Todeschi, Julien; Abid, Houssem; Ligarotti, Gianfranco; Pop, Raoul; Proust, Francois; Chibbaro, Salvatore

    2017-11-01

    To analytically discuss some protocols in Deep vein thrombosis (DVT)/pulmonary Embolism (PE) prophylaxis currently use in Neurosurgical Departments around the world. Analysis of the prophylaxis protocols in the English literature: An analytical and narrative review of literature concerning DVT prophylaxis protocols in Neurosurgery have been conducted by a PubMed search (back to 1978). 80 abstracts were reviewed, and 74 articles were extracted. The majority of DVT seems to develop within the first week after a neurosurgical procedure, and a linear correlation between the duration of surgery and DVT occurrence has been highlighted. The incidence of DVT seems greater for cranial (7.7%) than spinal procedures (1.5%). Although intermittent pneumatic compression (IPC) devices provided adequate reduction of DVT/PE in some cranial and combined cranial/spinal series, low-dose subcutaneous unfractionated heparin (UFH) or low molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) further reduced the incidence, not always of DVT, but of PE. Nevertheless, low-dose heparin-based prophylaxis in cranial and spinal series risks minor and major postoperative haemorrhages: 2-4% in cranial series, 3.4% minor and 3.4% major haemorrhages in combined cranial/spinal series, and a 0.7% incidence of major/minor haemorrhages in spinal series. This analysis showed that currently most of the articles are represented by case series and case reports. As long as clear guidelines will not be defined and universally applied to this diverse group of patients, any prophylaxis for DVT and PE should be tailored to the individual patient with cautious assessment of benefits versus risks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Moral value, risk and risk tolerance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeberg, L.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M.

    1993-07-01

    In this paper, risk tolerance with regard to nuclear waste is investigated in two empirical studies. Earlier published data, based on home interviews, purporting to show that a majority of Swedes now would accept a local nuclear waste repository could not be replicated in a mail survey. Interviewer influence and implicit prompting were suggested as explanations of previous results, and a follow-up using implicit and explicit prompts showed that uncertain people were more likely to acquiesce in response to an implicit prompt. The acceptance of a local repository (measured as intention to vote in its favor in a local referendum) could not be well explained by a cost-benefit approach, neither by a risk perception model. Concern about the local community was an important determinant, however, and so were moral aspects. When these aspects were included in a model, about 60 per cent of the variance of risk perception and risk acceptance was accounted for. In further analyses, NIMBY respondents were identified, defined here as people who rejected a local repository in spite of having acknowledged substantial utility of nuclear power. NIMBYs were, however, only in a small minority of all opposition to a local repository. Cultural theory gave only a very small marginal level of explanation of perceived waste risk and acceptance. Few respondents stated that they would accept a local repository if they were to be given financial compensation. This fact may be related to nuclear power issues being conceived as general, rather than personal matters. Those who saw it as politically important also conceived of it in general rather than personal terms. 62 refs

  19. Are doctors risk takers?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pikkel D

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Dvora Pikkel,1 Yael Sara Pikkel Igal,2 Adi Sharabi-Nov,3,4 Joseph Pikkel2,51Risk Management and Patient Safety Unit, Assuta Medical Center, Ramat Hahayal, Tel Aviv, 2Faculty of Medicine, Bar-Ilan University, 3Research Wing, Ziv Medical Center, Safed, 4Tel-Hai Academic College, Upper Galilee, 5Department of Ophthalmology, Ziv Medical Center, Safed, Israel Objective: Risk taking affects human behavior in general and decisions in medicine in particular. We used game theory to assess physicians' risk-taking tendencies. Methods: Physicians were recruited to the study by advertisement. It was explained that they would receive a sum of money for correct prediction of the flipping of a coin. They could try to sell their opportunity to flip the coin for an amount of money they determined. The sum offered by the participants was considered an indicator of risk taking. A demographic questionnaire assessed age, sex, seniority, and area of specialization of the participants. A multivariate analysis assessed associations between risk-taking behavior and, seniority, and specialization. Results: Sixty-two physicians participated, 36 males and 26 females, seniority 1–34 years. Of a possible range of 0–10, the mean score for risk taking was 5.5 – just slightly more than indifference. Negative correlations were found between risk taking and seniority, and between risk taking and age (β=–0.45, P<0.001 for both. Surgeons and anesthesiologists showed greater risk taking than did other physicians (β=0.69, P<0.05; and females less than males, though the latter correlation was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Understanding the tendency of physicians to risk taking may elucidate their decision-making processes and contribute to understanding of causes of adverse events and to the education of physicians. Keywords: risk taking, game theory, seniority, surgeons, anesthesiologists

  20. Risks from nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liljenzin, J.O.; Rydberg, J.

    1996-11-01

    The first part of this review discusses the importance of risk. If there is any relation between the emotional and rational risk perceptions (for example, it is believed that increased knowledge will decrease emotions), it will be a desirable goal for society, and the nuclear industry in particular, to improve the understanding by the laymen of the rational risks from nuclear energy. This review surveys various paths to a more common comprehension - perhaps a consensus - of the nuclear waste risks. The second part discusses radioactivity as a risk factor and concludes that it has no relation in itself to risk, but must be connected to exposure leading to a dose risk, i.e. a health detriment, which is commonly expressed in terms of cancer induction rate. Dose-effect relations are discussed in light of recent scientific debate. The third part of the report describes a number of hazard indexes for nuclear waste found in the literature and distinguishes between absolute and relative risk scales. The absolute risks as well as the relative risks have changed over time due to changes in radiological and metabolic data and by changes in the mode of calculation. To judge from the literature, the risk discussion is huge, even when it is limited to nuclear waste. It would be very difficult to make a comprehensive review and extract the essentials from that. Therefore, we have chosen to select some publications, out of the over 100, which we summarize rather comprehensively; in some cases we also include our remarks. 110 refs, 22 figs

  1. Radiological risk comparison guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallinan, E.J.; Muhlestein, L.D.; Brown, L.F.; Yoder, R.E.

    1992-01-01

    An important aspect of DOE safety analyses is estimating potential accident risk. The estimates are used to: determine if additional controls are needed, identify Safety Class Items, and demonstrate adequate risk reduction. Thus, guidelines are needed to measure comparative risks. The Westinghouse M ampersand O Nuclear Facility Safety Committee and the Safety Envelope Working Group have developed radiological risk guidelines for comparing the risks from individual accident analyses. These guidelines were prepared under contract with the US Department of Energy. These guidelines are based on historical DOE guidelines and current requirements, and satisfy DOE and technical community proposals. for goals that demonstrate acceptable risk. The guidelines consist of a frequency versus consequence curve for credible accidents. Offsite and onsite guidelines are presented. The offsite risk acceptance guidelines are presented in Figure 1. The guidelines are nearly isorisk for anticipated events where impacts are chronic, and provide additional reduction for unlikely events where impacts may be acute and risk uncertainties may be significant. The guidelines are applied to individual release accident scenarios where a discrete frequency and consequence has been estimated. The guideline curves are not to be used for total risk assessments. Common cause events are taken into consideration only for an individual facility. Frequencies outside the guideline range are considered to be local site option (analyst judgement) as far as assessments of risk acceptance are concerned. If the curve is exceeded, then options include either a more detailed analysis or imposing additional preventive or mitigative features. Another presentation discusses implementation in detail. Additional work is needed to provide risk comparison guidelines for releases from multiple facilities and for toxic releases

  2. Risks from nuclear waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liljenzin, J.O.; Rydberg, J. [Radiochemistry Consultant Group, Vaestra Froelunda (Sweden)

    1996-11-01

    The first part of this review discusses the importance of risk. If there is any relation between the emotional and rational risk perceptions (for example, it is believed that increased knowledge will decrease emotions), it will be a desirable goal for society, and the nuclear industry in particular, to improve the understanding by the laymen of the rational risks from nuclear energy. This review surveys various paths to a more common comprehension - perhaps a consensus - of the nuclear waste risks. The second part discusses radioactivity as a risk factor and concludes that it has no relation in itself to risk, but must be connected to exposure leading to a dose risk, i.e. a health detriment, which is commonly expressed in terms of cancer induction rate. Dose-effect relations are discussed in light of recent scientific debate. The third part of the report describes a number of hazard indexes for nuclear waste found in the literature and distinguishes between absolute and relative risk scales. The absolute risks as well as the relative risks have changed over time due to changes in radiological and metabolic data and by changes in the mode of calculation. To judge from the literature, the risk discussion is huge, even when it is limited to nuclear waste. It would be very difficult to make a comprehensive review and extract the essentials from that. Therefore, we have chosen to select some publications, out of the over 100, which we summarize rather comprehensively; in some cases we also include our remarks. 110 refs, 22 figs.

  3. Landslide-dammed lake at Tangjiashan, Sichuan province, China (triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake, May 12, 2008): Risk assessment, mitigation strategy, and lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, P.; Dang, C.; Zhuang, J.; You, Y.; Chen, X.; Scott, K.M.

    2012-01-01

    initial breach erosion was slow, later erosion was judged uncontrollably rapid; increased slope of the engineered channel and adoption of a compound, trapezoid-triangular cross-section can be considered, as can other measures to control the rate of breach incision. Evacuees from Mianyang City spent an unnecessarily long time (12 days) in temporary settlements; more precise risk management planning can reduce this time in the future. ?? 2010 Springer-Verlag.

  4. Risk and Derivative Price

    OpenAIRE

    Yusuke Osaki

    2007-01-01

    We consider an asset market traded three types of assets: the risk–free asset, the market portfolio and derivatives written on the market portfolio return. We determine a sufficient condition to guarantee that noise risk monotonically changes their derivatives. The condition is that Arrow–Pratt absolute risk aversion is decreasing and convex.

  5. Risk Aversion and Emotions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, Y.; Noussair, C.N.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract: We consider the relationship between emotions and decision-making under risk. Specifically, we examine the emotional correlates of risk-averse decisions. In our experiment, individuals' facial expressions are monitored with facereading software, as they are presented with risky lotteries.

  6. Commodity risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilary Till

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the practical issues involved in applying a disciplined risk management methodology to commodity futures trading. Accordingly, the paper shows how to apply methodologies derived from both conventional asset management and hedge fund management to futures trading. The article also discusses some of the risk management issues that are unique to leveraged futures trading.

  7. [Prevention of psychosocial risks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalle, Édouard; Trichard-Salembier, Alexandra; Sobaszek, Annie

    2018-02-01

    The theme of psychosocial risks remains in the workplace. It is therefore essential that all members of a company are made aware of the terminology and specific prevention actions in this field. Distinguishing between the manifestations of these risks and their causes and consequences helps to improve prevention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  8. Nanocosmetics: benefits and risks

    OpenAIRE

    Shokri, Javad

    2017-01-01

    Summary Various nanomaterials/nanoparticles (NPs) have been used for the development of cosmetic products - a field so-called nanocosmetic formulations. These advanced materials offer some benefits, while their utilization in the cosmetic formulations may be associated with some risks. The main aim of this editorial is to highlight the benefits and risks of the nanomaterials used in the cosmetic products.

  9. Perception of Product Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, A.R.H.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter provides several explanations for consumer risk perception. For frequently repeated behavior that is seemingly under their own control, consumers tend to be overly optimistic. This occurs in spite of the general tendency of consumers to be risk averse. Specific dimensions of different

  10. Risk and response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warner, F [Cremer and Warner (UK)

    1981-01-01

    A discussion of nuclear power and public acceptability can quite properly begin with a general consideration of the nature of response to risk. Response follows perception, and builds up from the individual through group response to the judgement of society expressed in governmental decisions on what is acceptable. Various types of risk, and public reaction, are discussed.

  11. Quantifying IT estimation risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kulk, G.P.; Peters, R.J.; Verhoef, C.

    2009-01-01

    A statistical method is proposed for quantifying the impact of factors that influence the quality of the estimation of costs for IT-enabled business projects. We call these factors risk drivers as they influence the risk of the misestimation of project costs. The method can effortlessly be

  12. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  13. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  14. Social Discounting under Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jia; Pei, Guanxiong; Ma, Qingguo

    2017-01-01

    As a measure of how prosocial behavior depends on social distance, social discounting is defined as the decrease in generosity between the decision maker and the recipient as the social distance increases. While risk is a ubiquitous part of modern life, there is limited research on the relationship between risk and prosocial behavior. In the present experiment, we empirically test whether risk has an influence on social discounting. We use the choice titration procedure to examine this effect. Our data show that independent of risk, participants are less eager to forego money and exhibit more selfishness toward a specific person when the social distance increases; these findings are reflected in the hyperbolic model. Interestingly, risk influences the shape of the social discounting function, which is reflected in the notable different discount rates. Individuals who make decisions under risk yield a smaller discount rate than those who make decisions without risk, i.e., under risk subjects reduce less their generosity as a function of the social distance. Furthermore, this distinct type of generosity occurs typically among individuals with 10-distance recipients but not with the closest- and furthest-social-distance recipients.

  15. Reanalysis of Zion risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, C.K.; Unwin, S.D.; Cazzoli, E.; Tingle, A.; Chun, M.

    1988-01-01

    As part of the NUREG-1150 effort, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has undertaken a risk analysis of Zion Unit 1 adopting the methodology developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining Program. Resulting of the preliminary version of that analysis are reported here. Completion plans for the Zion study are described also

  16. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  17. Measuring Normative Risk Preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.A.G. Alserda (Gosse)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThe results of eliciting risk preferences depend on the elicitation method. Different methods of measuring the same variable tend to produce different results. This raises the question whether normative risk preferences can be elicited at all. Using two types of manipulation, I assess

  18. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  19. Environments at risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, D.

    1989-01-01

    The book is a product of the Canadian story in environmental management. Since the late 1960s the Canadian governments have reflected the growing environmental conscience and legislated many environmental controls. It is shown what has been achieved worldwide in environmental assessment an risk prediction. The 12 chapters include working concepts and examples for assessments, reducing risk, and self-help. (DG)

  20. Realized Volatility Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); M. Scharth (Marcel)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from highfrequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive.

  1. Asymmetric Realized Volatility Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); M. Scharth (Marcel)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized

  2. Risks of Leveraged Products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Di Cesare (Antonio)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractLeveraged investments have become a fundamental feature of modern economies. The new financial products allow people to take greater-than-usual exposures to risk factors. This thesis analyzes several different aspects of the risks involved by some frequently used leveraged products:

  3. Risk in social science

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zinn, Jens; Taylor-Gooby, Peter

    2006-01-01

    ... for control. Advances in social science improve understanding of how people perceive and prioritise risks, broaden awareness of the bearing of a range of other issues (trust, experience during the life course, democratic expectations) on people's capacity to manage risks, and facilitate exploration of the ways in which people communicate abo...

  4. ORGANIZATIONAL RISK COMMUNICATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ris communication tools in organizations differs in several ways from many of tools and techniques developed for public meetings. The traditional view of risk communication seeks to manage the public outrage ssociated with site-based issues. Organizational risk communication seek...

  5. Mind Your Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... ZIP 223KB Social Media Graphics Download .ZIP 293KB Social Media Graphics CAMPAIGN RESOURCES: SOCIAL MEDIA GRAPHICS Mind Your Risks® (MYR) ... ZIP 360KB Social Media Graphics Download .ZIP 433KB Social Media Graphics CAMPAIGN RESOURCES: SOCIAL MEDIA GRAPHICS Mind Your Risks® (MYR) ...

  6. Perspectives: Intellectual Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, James C.

    2013-01-01

    Ask a college administrator about students and risk management, and you're likely to get a quick and agitated speech about alcohol consumption and bad behavior or a meditation on mental health and campus safety. But in colleges and universities, we manage intellectual risk-taking too. Bring that up, and you'll probably get little out of that same…

  7. Risk Management and Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovmand, David

    2014-01-01

    Review of: Risk Management and Simulation / Aparna Gupta. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2013, xxix + 491 pp., $99.95(H), ISBN: 978-1-4398-3594-4.......Review of: Risk Management and Simulation / Aparna Gupta. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2013, xxix + 491 pp., $99.95(H), ISBN: 978-1-4398-3594-4....

  8. Taming agricultural risks

    OpenAIRE

    Oppedahl, David B.

    2014-01-01

    On November 19, 2013, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago held a conference to explore the key risks faced by agricultural producers and lenders, as well as the risk-management tools available to them, in today’s volatile environment.

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  10. Risks from radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doll, Richard

    1992-01-01

    The best estimate of risk to which everyone is exposed from natural radon in buildings is now obtained by extrapolation from observations on men exposed to radon in mines. The relationship between dose and effect derived by the US National Research Council implies that about 6% of the current life-time risk of developing the disease in the UK is attributable to radon, but for residents of some houses it will be much greater. This estimate is dependent on many assumptions, some of which are certainly wrong, and reliable estimates can be obtained only by direct observations on people living in different houses. It is possible that radon may also cause some risk of other cancers, notably leukaemia, but such risks, if real, are certainly small. Studies in progress should provide reliable estimates of all radon induced risks within a few years. (author)

  11. Insurance against nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dow, J.C.

    1976-01-01

    Virtually any type of nuclear risk is insurable in principle, providing, of course, that the necessary standards of safety and control are met. Some of the risks are of a relatively minor character and no more hazardous than a simple conventional risk. But insurers would not consider as a minor risk anything which involves the use of nuclear fuel or other nuclear materials which are in a critical state or capable of releasing dangerous levels of radioactivity. These would include nuclear reactors or, indeed, any type of assembly which can not be regarded as subcritical. Most insurers would also regard installations involved in the manufacturing, processing and enriching of nuclear fuel, and certainly those concerned with the reprocessing of irradiated fuel and plutonium extraction, as major risks. (HP) [de

  12. Risks in nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindackers, K.H.

    1982-01-01

    The German nuclear power plant risk assessment study has not contributed to a higher degree of acceptance of light-water reactors among the general public. One reason is the fact that its predictions are much too inaccurate, and the consequences from severe accidents, regardless of their possibly extremely small likelihood, speak for themselves. The work still to be done in Phase B of the risk analysis will only be useful, if the safety factors in risk assessments can be drastically increased. The results of the risk analysis cannot be used in legislation or the administration of justice, because they are too incomplete and inaccurate. Scientific findings in risk analysis show that new designs and new components complicate objective judgement of changes in reactor safety engineering considerably. Every change in the required precautionary safety measures must be carefully considered, and if need be tested under the appropriate conditions. (orig./HSCH) [de

  13. EMF and risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widemann, P.M.; Schuetz, H.

    1995-01-01

    There has lately been a greater responsivement in the media as well as the general public to the risk potential of high-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF). If the discussion continues to gain momentum, this could have grave consequences for companies offering the products or services under attack. The working group Man, Environment, Technology (MUT) at Juelich Research Centre has examined the question of how EMF risks are valuated by the public. The study centered on the following questions: How are EMF risk potentials perceived by the public and what factors influence the public discussion? What future course might the discussion on risks take and what critical events and conditions deserve particular attention? The authors present and discuss the results of this first German study on product-inherent risks. (orig.) [de

  14. Risk capital allocation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Smilgins, Aleksandrs

    Risk capital allocation problems have been widely discussed in the academic literature. We consider a company with multiple subunits having individual portfolios. Hence, when portfolios of subunits are merged, a diversification benefit arises: the risk of the company as a whole is smaller than...... the sum of the risks of the individual sub-units. The question is how to allocate the risk capital of the company among the subunits in a fair way. In this paper we propose to use the Lorenz set as an allocation method. We show that the Lorenz set is operational and coherent. Moreover, we propose a set...... of new axioms related directly to the problem of risk capital allocation and show that the Lorenz set satisfies these new axioms in contrast to other well-known coherent methods. Finally, we discuss how to deal with non-uniqueness of the Lorenz set....

  15. Fear, anger, and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, J S; Keltner, D

    2001-07-01

    Drawing on an appraisal-tendency framework (J. S. Lerner & D. Keltner, 2000), the authors predicted and found that fear and anger have opposite effects on risk perception. Whereas fearful people expressed pessimistic risk estimates and risk-averse choices, angry people expressed optimistic risk estimates and risk-seeking choices. These opposing patterns emerged for naturally occurring and experimentally induced fear and anger. Moreover, estimates of angry people more closely resembled those of happy people than those of fearful people. Consistent with predictions, appraisal tendencies accounted for these effects: Appraisals of certainty and control moderated and (in the case of control) mediated the emotion effects. As a complement to studies that link affective valence to judgment outcomes, the present studies highlight multiple benefits of studying specific emotions.

  16. Mapping of nitrogen risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Carstensen, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    risk mapping part of the tool, we combined a modelled root zone N leaching with a catchment-specific N reduction factor which in combination determines the N load to the marine recipient. N leaching was calculated using detailed information of agricultural management from national databases as well...... will be more effective if they are implemented in N loss hot spots or risk areas. Additionally, the highly variable N reduction in groundwater and surface waters needs to be taken into account as this strongly influences the resulting effect of mitigation measures. The objectives of this study were to develop...... and apply an N risk tool to the entire agricultural land area in Denmark. The purpose of the tool is to identify high risk areas, i.e. areas which contribute disproportionately much to diffuse N losses to the marine recipient, and to suggest cost-effective measures to reduce losses from risk areas. In the N...

  17. WHO risk communication seminar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The International EMF project organised by the WHO is now entering its third year. In addition to providing authoritative reviews of the scientific literature on the health effects of exposure to electric and magnetic fields, a key objective of the five year programme is to provide information on the perception, communication and management of risk, and how this relates to electric and magnetic fields. To this end, an International seminar on: Risk perception, risk communication and its application to EMF exposure, was held in Vienna on 22-23 October last year, bringing togehter an array of speakers from around the world to talk about perceptions of risk, how best to communicate risks to the public and present some practical examples. (author)

  18. Managing Risk and Opportunity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Garvey, Maxine; Roggi, Oliviero

    outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors. The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book...... is framed around the challenges imposed on executives and directors in dealing with an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. This requires a new risk leadership focus that not only avoids the downside risks but also considers ways to exploit the upside potential offered by a dynamic environment....... The underlying logic is built on the principles of financial economics where benefits derive from reducing bankruptcy costs and increasing future cash inflows. This provides a stringent framework for analyzing the effect of different risk management actions and behaviors in effective risk-taking organizations...

  19. Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

  20. LOW DOSE RISK, DECISIONS, and RISK COMMUNICATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flynn, James

    2002-01-01

    The objective of this project is to conduct basic research on how people receive, evaluate, and form positions on scientific information and its relationship to low-dose radiation exposure. There are three major areas of study in our research program. First is the development of theories, frameworks and concepts essential to guiding data collection and analysis. The second area is a program of experimental studies on risk perception, evaluation of science information, and the structure of individual positions regarding low-dose exposures. Third is the community-level studies to examine and record how the social conditions, under which science communications take place, influence the development of attitudes and opinions about: low-dose exposures, the available management options, control of radiation risks, and preferences for program and policy goals

  1. LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT AND CORPORATE RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fenyves Veronika

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The consequence of the economic crisis, the access of the external financing resources was narrowed significantly and lenders had became more cautious. This meant that the external source providers analyze more thoroughly the source claimants, and they also need to be more aware of their situation, to submit well founded loan applications to financial institutions. The other aspect is why the indicators presented in the study, the firms should be addressed much more thoroughly than ever before to have a much better understanding their situation, to recognize the sources of internal funding opportunities, and to use more efficiently the available internal resources. However, analysts should be aware of which are the ratios which should be paid a special attention and which ones are essential to assess a given situation, knowing them they can properly inform the leaders as well as to give an appropriate help to the decision makers. To ensure the appropriate level of internal resources the company's activity is continuous financing closely related to the working capital management. The other reason is why the working capital management coming into view - which is linked to the previous one - that longer and longer payment periods have emerged in the corporate sales, in point of fact there is a significant increase in commercial lending period, the companies must be able to finance this period. The working capital is essential for companies to determine their short-term financial positions. A significant change in working capital provides an important information to the company's various stakeholders, and this is especially true for the net working capital. The working capital analysis is one way the company's creditability evaluation, and helps also to better understand the company's normal business cycle.

  2. Communication of Audit Risk to Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alderman, C. Wayne; Thompson, James H.

    1986-01-01

    This article focuses on audit risk by examining it in terms of its components: inherent risk, control risk, and detection risk. Discusses applying audit risk, a definition of audit risk, and components of audit risk. (CT)

  3. Internal Audit and Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Constantin Nicolae Vasile; Alexandru Georgiana

    2011-01-01

    Internal audit and risk management have the same goal: the control of risk. There are various roles for the internal audit in respect of risk management. The main limitations of internal audit in respect of risk management regards assuming risk management tasks. One of the main issues regarding risk management is to make sure that the key risks are taken into consideration and that the management and the board of the organization take action as needed. Internal audit could give advice to mana...

  4. Society's general exposure to risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lidstone, R.F.

    1981-10-01

    Canadian and world experience with accidents and disease is reviewed in order to identify risk information that might extend the societal perspective on health risk beyond daily concerns. The level of exposure to catastrophic risks is compared to that associated with commonly experienced risks. An examination of current and historical levels of Canadian mortality risk is included. The association between mortality risk and Canadian industrial activity is also examined. Some prospects for utilizing these risk benchmarks are then discussed

  5. Coastal risk forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-03-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  6. Country risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

  7. Coastal risk forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-04-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  8. The risks of technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.; Werner, W.; Herttrich, M.

    1987-01-01

    The book presents a complete survey of the methods and procedures applied for risk assessment, referring in particular to the field of nuclear engineering, but dealing also with risk assessment in the sector of the chemical industry and of the power industry, comparing the risks of various technologies for energy production. The material presented shows that a risk assessment study requires information and knowledge from a great variety of subject fields, evaluating and merging the information collected into a complete survey being the main task of risk assessment. It also becomes clear that despite the strong commitment to research in this field, there still remain unresolved problems and phenomena, so that risk assessment bears a certain degree of uncertainty. The results and the mutual connections are represented in words only, so that the reader can do without mathematical knowledge. Many studies and their results are presented, and their explanation in the overall framework allows insight into the connections and an evaluation of usefulness. The status report on risk assessment prepared in August 1984 by the GRS (Society for Reactor Safety) on behalf of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, has been taken as a basis for this book which consists of many individual contributions. (orig./HP) With 45 figs [de

  9. Risk perception in planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roh, S K

    1987-01-01

    The general public's perception of the risks involved with hazardous industries is increasing, especially in countries that high environmental amenity characteristics. This increased public awareness of risk may be an important factor in the future of countries who produce a large quantity of petroleum and chemical products. However, existing decision-making processes for determining safety controls do not take sufficient account of the community perception of risk. Identification of perceived risk levels could contribute to the determination of safe land-use planning policies and practices. The objective of land-use planning for hazardous industries is to reduce the gap between the calculated or technical assessment of risk and the risk as perceived by the community. This also facilitates a balanced approach in the decision making process between meeting industry requirements and community concerns. The comprehensive analysis presented in this study, based on a questionnaire given to residents in each of the three study areas (Australia, Japan and Korea), focused on identifying and measuring the respondent's understanding of the risk posed by nearby hazardous industrial developments.

  10. Introduction: Learning about Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens O. Zinn

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The special issue "Learning about Risk" draws on the launch conference of the ESRC "Social Contexts and Responses to Risk" network (SCARR held at 28th – 29th January 2005 in Canterbury. The SCARR network is an interdisciplinary network on risk which examines perceptions of and responses to risk in a range of areas, including sexual behaviour and partnering choices, the mass media, faith and ethnicity, pensions and financial planning, industrial pollution, crime, transport, energy policy and environmental hazards. The network's launch conference reflected the interdisciplinary character of risk research including a range of different methods and approaches to risk, directed at diverse objects of interest. The idea of the special issue is to link together this diversity and interdisciplinarity in risk research, and to encourage perspectives that look beyond the boundaries of single disciplines and methodological approaches. The papers in this publication demonstrate the value of insights from different disciplinary backgrounds in this area and point to the opportunities and challenges in the work that remains to be done in drawing these several perspectives more closely together. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0601246

  11. 77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    ...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

  12. Contralateral breast cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unnithan, Jaya; Macklis, Roger M.

    2001-01-01

    The use of breast-conserving treatment approaches for breast cancer has now become a standard option for early stage disease. Numerous randomized studies have shown medical equivalence when mastectomy is compared to lumpectomy followed by radiotherapy for the local management of this common problem. With an increased emphasis on patient involvement in the therapeutic decision making process, it is important to identify and quantify any unforeseen risks of the conservation approach. One concern that has been raised is the question of radiation- related contralateral breast cancer after breast radiotherapy. Although most studies do not show statistically significant evidence that patients treated with breast radiotherapy are at increased risk of developing contralateral breast cancer when compared to control groups treated with mastectomy alone, there are clear data showing the amount of scattered radiation absorbed by the contralateral breast during a routine course of breast radiotherapy is considerable (several Gy) and is therefore within the range where one might be concerned about radiogenic contralateral tumors. While radiation related risks of contralateral breast cancer appear to be small enough to be statistically insignificant for the majority of patients, there may exist a smaller subset which, for genetic or environmental reasons, is at special risk for scatter related second tumors. If such a group could be predicted, it would seem appropriate to offer either special counselling or special prevention procedures aimed at mitigating this second tumor risk. The use of genetic testing, detailed analysis of breast cancer family history, and the identification of patients who acquired their first breast cancer at a very early age may all be candidate screening procedures useful in identifying such at- risk groups. Since some risk mitigation strategies are convenient and easy to utilize, it makes sense to follow the classic 'ALARA' (as low as reasonably

  13. UPDATING UNDER RISK CONDITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VĂDUVA CECILIA ELENA

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The foundation for future firm development is investment. Agents have a risk aversion requiring higher returns as the risks associated with the project will be greater. The investment decision determines the market firm's affirmation, increasing the market share, dominating the market. Making an investment at a certain point will determine certain cash flows throughout the life of the project, and a residual value can be obtained when it is taken out of service. The flows and payments for the investment project can be more easily tracked if we are proposing a constant update rate. We will be able to analyze, based on various factors, three techniques for determining the discount rate for investment projects: the opportunity cost, the risk-free rate, and a series of risk premiums, the weighted average cost of capital. People without financial training make value judgments for investment projects based on other market opportunities, comparing the returns that any investment offers to other pay options. An investor has a sum of money he wants to make - if he does not invest in a project, he will invest in another, that will bring him a certain amount of money, choosing the most advantageous project by comparison. All projects are characterized by identical risks, and the agents are considered indifferent to the risks. The answer given by financial theory and practice to the disadvantage of rates in the opportunity cost category is the discount rate calculated as a sum of the risk-free rate and a risk premium, defining the risk as a factor whose action may cause a possible decrease in cash of the available flows. Higher objectivity is presented by the opportunity cost update rates of update because it refers to known variables but cannot be perfectly matched to the performance of the investment process.

  14. Comparative risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

  15. Radiogenic risks from hysterosalpingography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perisinakis, Kostas; Damilakis, John; Theocharopoulos, Nicholas; Grammatikakis, John; Gourtsoyiannis, Nicholas

    2003-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine ovarian dose, effective dose and associated radiogenic risks from hysterosalpingography (HSG), and to provide data for the estimation of radiogenic risks related to HSG studies performed in any laboratory. The fluoroscopy time, number of radiographs taken and entrance surface dose were measured in a series of 78 consecutive patients undergoing HSG as part of their infertility work-up. Organ-dose values per radiograph and per minute of fluoroscopy were separately determined using an anthropomorphic phantom and thermoluminescence dosimetry. The radiogenic risk for deleterious effects on a possible future embryo and the radiogenic risk for cancer induction on the patient undergoing HSG were estimated. The average HSG procedure in our laboratory involves a mean fluoroscopic time of 0.3 min and a mean number of radiographs of 3.2. The dose to female gonads from an average HSG procedure was 2.7 mGy and the patient effective dose was 1.2 mSv. The risk for radiogenic anomalies in a future embryo of the woman undergoing an average HSG procedure and the risk for radiogenic fatal cancer induction in the exposed woman were estimated to be less than 10 -3 of the correspondent nominal risks. Radiation risks from a typical HSG are low, but they may be elevated if fluoroscopic and/or radiographic exposures are prolonged for any reason. Present data allow the estimation of radiogenic risks associated with HSG procedures performed in other laboratories with use of different equipment, screening time and number of radiographs taken. (orig.)

  16. Risk in pediatric anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, Neil; Waterhouse, Peter

    2011-08-01

    Risk in pediatric anesthesia can be conveniently classified as minor or major. Major morbidity includes cardiac arrest, brain damage and death. Minor morbidity can be assessed by clinical audits with small patient samples. Major morbidity is rare. It is best assessed by very large clinical studies and by review of closed malpractice claims. Both minor and major morbidity occur most commonly in infants and children under three, especially those with severe co-morbidities. Knowledge of risk profiles in pediatric anesthesia is a starting point for the reduction of risk. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  17. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  18. Managing Risk and Opportunity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Garvey, Maxine; Roggi, Oliviero

    outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors. The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book...... is framed around the challenges imposed on executives and directors in dealing with an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. This requires a new risk leadership focus that not only avoids the downside risks but also considers ways to exploit the upside potential offered by a dynamic environment...

  19. PREVENTION OF COMPANY RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUCI U GHEORGHE

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available A company’s manager has to create and maintain a healthy internal control system. An efficient internal control system implies the implementation in the company of risk management. Each company, but also each individual, who tries to attain certain objectives, establishes the activities which lead to the achievement of goals and, at the same time, tries to identify as many “threats” as possible, in order to take the necessary measures to eliminate them. Thus, even if one is not familiar with the concepts of risk and risk management, one acts, consciously or not, for that purpose.

  20. Credit Risk Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lando, David

    Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers...... and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand...

  1. Social identities and risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders; Jensen, Mette; Kaltoft, Pernille

    2008-01-01

    Expert-based environmental and health risk regulation is widely believed to suffer from a lack of public understanding and legitimacy. On controversial issues such as genetically modified organisms and food-related chemicals, a "lay-expert discrepancy" in the assessment of risks is clearly visible...... of social identities. On the basis of qualitative interviews with citizens and experts, respectively, we focus on the multiple ways in which identities come to be employed in actors' risk accounts. Empirically, we identify salient characteristics of "typical" imagined experts and lay-people, while arguing...

  2. riskRegression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ozenne, Brice; Sørensen, Anne Lyngholm; Scheike, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    In the presence of competing risks a prediction of the time-dynamic absolute risk of an event can be based on cause-specific Cox regression models for the event and the competing risks (Benichou and Gail, 1990). We present computationally fast and memory optimized C++ functions with an R interface......-product we obtain fast access to the baseline hazards (compared to survival::basehaz()) and predictions of survival probabilities, their confidence intervals and confidence bands. Confidence intervals and confidence bands are based on point-wise asymptotic expansions of the corresponding statistical...

  3. Some thoughts about risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennekens, J.H.

    1986-05-01

    The author discusses how the concept of risk is perceived differently by the scientist and the man in the street, and mentions the problems that this can sometimes pose for the regulator. He also gives examples of inconsistencies and contradictions in various areas of risk management. He concludes by noting that so-called accidents usually do not occur by chance, but that system or component failures are always due to some form of human error. The objective of risk management is to ensure, by a process of rigorous analysis, that both the probability and consequences of such failures are minimized

  4. Alternative Perspectives on Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davison, Jeannie; Orasanu, J.; Connors, Mary M. (Technical Monitor)

    1997-01-01

    The goal of the commercial air transport system is to provide air transportation to the flying public at an acceptable cost with minimal risk. in an ideal situation these three goals would support each other. In fact, it is sometimes the case that the goals conflict: getting passengers to their destinations on time may conflict with fixing a minor mechanical malfunction that may or may not impact safety; flying a route that will avoid turbulence, thereby providing passengers with a more comfortable ride, may consume more fuel; managing traffic density may mean aircraft are delayed or must use an approach that will result in a long taxi to their gates, costing time and fuel. Various players in the system--pilots, dispatchers, controllers, as well as managers in the airline carriers and traffic management system--make decisions every day that involve trade-offs of benefits and costs. The prospect of revisions in the air traffic management system, with shifts in responsibilities from controllers to users, including airline operations center personnel and pilots, means that individuals may be performing either new jobs or old jobs under new guidance. It will be essential to know how the various players (a) perceive the risks and benefits associated with the decisions they will make under the old and new control structures, and (b) how much risk they are willing to accept in making decisions. Risk is here defined as the probability and magnitude of negative events (after Slovic, 1987). Of primary interest are risks associated with traffic, weather, and operational factors such as schedule, fuel consumption, and passenger service. Previous research has documented differences between groups in perceptions of risks associated with both everyday and aviation related situations. Risk perception varies as a function of familiarity with the situation, degree to which one is potentially affected by the risk, the level of control one has over the situation, and one's level of

  5. Governmental management of chemical risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmerman, R.

    1990-01-01

    This book is organized under the following headings: risk management in the government context; legal and regulatory decrees and directives for managing chemical risk; incentive-based approaches for regulating risk; risk management in the federal system; and traditional approaches and new initiatives for managing chemical risk

  6. Value at Risk models for Energy Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Novák, Martin

    2010-01-01

    The main focus of this thesis lies on description of Risk Management in context of Energy Trading. The paper will predominantly discuss Value at Risk and its modifications as a main overall indicator of Energy Risk.

  7. [Chemical risk in farming].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moretto, Angelo

    2013-01-01

    The most important chemical risks in agriculture are plant protection products. Exposure evaluation in agriculture is not an easy task and cannot be carried out with the tools and methodologies of industrial exposures. However, toxicological studies on plant protection products, that are compulsory, provide a lot of useful information for actual risk assessment. Exposure evaluation can be carried out on the basis of exposure models and on semiquantitative measures based on the observation of the activity as it is carried our by the farmer. It is therefore possible to develop risk profiles that can guide exposure evaluation and health surveillance. Concentrated animal feeding operations are associated with several chemical risks including disinfectants, antibiotics, and gases such as ammonia and hydrogen sulfide, in addition to organic dusts and endotoxins.

  8. Nuclear insurance fire risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dressler, E.G.

    2001-01-01

    Nuclear facilities operate under the constant risk that radioactive materials could be accidentally released off-site and cause injuries to people or damages to the property of others. Management of this nuclear risk, therefore, is very important to nuclear operators, financial stakeholders and the general public. Operators of these facilities normally retain a portion of this risk and transfer the remainder to others through an insurance mechanism. Since the nuclear loss exposure could be very high, insurers usually assess their risk first-hand by sending insurance engineers to conduct a nuclear insurance inspection. Because a serious fire can greatly increase the probability of an off-site release of radiation, fire safety should be included in the nuclear insurance inspection. This paper reviews essential elements of a facility's fire safety program as a key factor in underwriting nuclear third-party liability insurance. (author)

  9. Radiation risks in pregnancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mossman, K.L.; Hill, L.T.

    1982-01-01

    A major contraindication of radiodiagnostic procedures is pregnancy. Approximately 1% of all pregnant women are given abdominal x-rays during the first trimester of pregnancy. Evaluation of radiation exposure should involve consideration of the types of examinations performed and when performed, as well as radiation dose and risk estimation. This information is then weighed against other possible risks of the pregnancy as well as personal factors. In the authors' experiences, radiation exposures usually result in doses to the embryo of less than 5 cGy (rad); the resulting radiation risks are usually small compared with other risks of pregnancy. Procedures to minimize diagnostic x-ray exposure of the fetus are also discussed

  10. Risk and fear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lerch, I [New York Univ., NY (USA). Medical Center

    1980-01-03

    It is shown that perception of risk often has a greater impact on our actions than does objective analysis of probabilities and that this factor dominates the whole tenor of the debate over nuclear power.

  11. Risk factors for neoplasms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.

    1991-06-01

    A broad survey is given of risk factors for neoplasms. The main carcinogenic substances (including also ionizing radiation and air pollution) are listed, and are correlated with the risk factors for various cancers most frequently explained and discussed in the literature. The study is intended to serve as a basis for a general assessment of the incidence of neoplasms in children, and of cancer mortality in the entire population of Bavaria in the years 1983-1989, or 1979-1988, respectively, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment-related health survey. The study therefore takes into account not only ionizing radiation as a main risk factor, but also other risk factors detectable within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations and their effects, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or the social status. (orig./MG) [de

  12. Managing Multiple Risk Factors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lollis, Charlie

    1998-01-01

    ...) contribute to the racial differences in cardiovascular risk and events among women. High levels of socioeconomic stress, higher dietary fat intake and sedentary lifestyle are more prevalent among black than white women...

  13. The risk perception gap

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frech, E.

    1995-01-01

    Most members of the public view the risks of nuclear power as uniquely hazardous. A survey in 1993 found that Canadians rank nuclear waste as the eleventh highest risk to their health. The trouble is that the public are not simply misinformed; rather, they view risk as something different from the product of probability of occurrence of an event multiplied by the measure of its harmful consequences. Among the 30 to 40 factors that influence public perception of risk, or acceptance of technology, are some that the scientific and technical community has hitherto failed to heed. Many of these factors can in fact be accommodated in the design, development and public presentation of nuclear projects. Such an accommodation of the public's views would involve dealing with factors like voluntariness, controllability, reversibility, equity and fairness, benefits, and trust in institutions. 9 refs

  14. Cultural differences in risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Do-Yeong Kim

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We compared South Koreans with Australians in order to characterize cultural differences in attitudes and choices regarding risk, at both the individual and group levels. Our results showed that Australians, when assessed individually, consistently self-reported higher preference for risk than South Koreans, regardless of gender. The data revealed that South Koreans, regardless of gender composition, were willing to take greater risks when making decisions in group decision-making situations than when they were alone. This is a different pattern from that seen in the Australian sample, in which a risky shift was noted only among males. This difference was attributed to the influence of various cultural orientations (independent vs. interdependent relationship styles. This study also provides a discussion of the implications of these results in terms of cultural differences in attitudes and decisions regarding risk.

  15. Fissile material proliferation risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    The proliferation risk of a facility depends on the material attractiveness, level of safeguards, and physical protection applied to the material in conjunction with an assessment of the impact of the socioeconomic circumstances and threat environment. Proliferation risk is a complementary extension of proliferation resistance. The authors believe a better determination of nuclear proliferation can be achieved by establishing the proliferation risk for facilities that contain nuclear material. Developing a method that incorporates the socioeconomic circumstances and threat environment inherent to each country enables a global proliferation assessment. To effectively reduce the nuclear danger, a broadly based set of criteria is needed that provides the capability to relatively assess a wide range of nuclear related sites and facilities in different countries and still ensure a global decrease in proliferation risk for fissile material (plutonium and highly enriched uranium)

  16. Exchange Risk Management Policy

    CERN Document Server

    2005-01-01

    At the Finance Committee of March 2005, following a comment by the CERN Audit Committee, the Chairman invited the Management to prepare a document on exchange risk management policy. The Finance Committee is invited to take note of this document.

  17. Risks of mammograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swartz, H.M.; Reichling, B.A.

    1977-01-01

    In summary, the following practical guidelines for mammography are offered: 1. Any woman, regardless of age, with signs or symptoms that indicate breast cancer should have a mammogram. 2. A woman who has a high risk for breast cancer (e.g., strong family history, no pregnancy before 30 years of age, or a previous breast cancer) should receive periodic screening examinations, including mammography. 3. Periodic screening for asymptomatic women over the age of 50 is indicated. 4. The value of periodic screening for asymptomatic women who are not considered to be at high risk and are under the age of 50 years is not established. Such screening should be carried out only when useful data can be collected on the benefits and risks of this procedure. 5. For any individual woman, the risk of inducing breast cancer by mammography is very low. 6. Mammograms should be made only with modern equipment and techniques designed to provide optimum information with minimal dose

  18. Obesity and Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Common Cancer Types Recurrent Cancer Common Cancer Types Bladder Cancer Breast Cancer Colorectal Cancer Kidney (Renal Cell) Cancer ... hormone therapy and for tumors that express hormone receptors . Obesity is also a risk factor for breast ...

  19. Econometrics of risk

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak; Suriya, Komsan

    2015-01-01

    This edited book contains several state-of-the-art papers devoted to econometrics of risk. Some papers provide theoretical analysis of the corresponding mathematical, statistical, computational, and economical models. Other papers describe applications of the novel risk-related econometric techniques to real-life economic situations. The book presents new methods developed just recently, in particular, methods using non-Gaussian heavy-tailed distributions, methods using non-Gaussian copulas to properly take into account dependence between different quantities, methods taking into account imprecise ("fuzzy") expert knowledge, and many other innovative techniques. This versatile volume helps practitioners to learn how to apply new techniques of econometrics of risk, and researchers to further improve the existing models and to come up with new ideas on how to best take into account economic risks.

  20. Histoplasmosis Risk and Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Huprikar S, Azie N, Quan SP, Meier-Kriesche HU, Horn DL. Clinical characteristics and outcomes in 303 HIV- ... Slama TG, Norton JA, Kohler RB, Eitzen HE, French ML, et al. Risk factors for disseminated or ...

  1. Risk for Travelers

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... publish guidance in 1999 and 2002 outlining a geography-based donor deferral policy to reduce the risk ... supplies [the Over Thirty Month (OTM) rule], was applied in the UK and appeared to be highly ...

  2. Risks of underage drinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... a higher risk of depression, anxiety, and low self-esteem. Drinking during puberty can also change hormones in ... the first to achieve this important distinction for online health information and services. Learn more about A. ...

  3. Risk Management Plan Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    RMP implements Section 112(r) of the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments, and requires facilities that use extremely hazardous substances to develop a Risk Management Plan and revise/resubmit every five years. Find guidance, factsheets, training, and assistance.

  4. Management of radiation risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1996-01-01

    The need to control the risk from ionizing radiation can be tracked back to the eve of the twentieth century. However, as knowledge improved and practices expanded, the approaches to this control have evolved. No longer is the mere respect of some forms of exposure limits or safety related standards sufficient. Rather, it is widely admitted that there is a need for managing radiation risk, both by balancing the advantages and disadvantages of enhancing protection and by setting up a proper organization that allows handling of the risk. This paper describes the multiple aspects of radiation risk management and points out the main related issues. It critically analyzes ALARA and ICRP recommendations. 74 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs

  5. Risk Factors Associated with Renal Involvement in Childhood Henoch-Schönlein Purpura: A Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Han; Tang, Yan-Ling; Lv, Xiao-Hang; Zhang, Gao-Fu; Wang, Mo; Yang, Hai-Ping; Li, Qiu

    2016-01-01

    Background and objective Henoch-Schönlein purpura (HSP) is an important cause of chronic kidney disease in children. This meta-analysis identified risk factors associated with renal involvement in childhood HSP. Methods PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were searched. The quality of all eligible studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale criteria. An analysis of possible risk factors was conducted to report the odds ratio (OR) and weighted mean difference (WMD). Results Thirteen studies (2398 children) revealed 20 possible and 13 significant risk factors associated with renal involvement in HSP, with the following meta-analysis estimates of OR and WMD, with 95% confidence intervals: older age (0.90, 0.61–1.19); age > 10 y (3.13, 1.39–7.07); male gender (1.36, 1.07–1.74); abdominal pain (1.94,1.24–3.04); gastrointestinal bleeding (1.86, 1.30–2.65); severe bowel angina (3.38, 1.17–9.80); persistent purpura (4.02, 1.22–13.25); relapse (4.70, 2.42–9.14); WBC > 15 × 109/L (2.42, 1.39–4.22); platelets > 500 × 109/L (2.98, 1.22–7.25); elevated antistreptolysin O (ASO) (2.17, 1.29–3.64); and decreased complement component 3 (C3) (3.13, 1.62–6.05). Factors not significantly associated with renal involvement were: blood pressure; orchitis; elevated C-reactive protein; elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR); and elevated serum IgA/IgE or IgG. Arthritis/arthralgia may be a risk factor according to the criteria of the American College of Rheumatology (1.41, 1.01–1.96). Conclusion The following are associated with renal involvement in pediatric HSP: male gender; > 10 y old; severe gastrointestinal symptoms (abdominal pain, gastrointestinal bleeding, and severe bowel angina); arthritis/arthralgia; persistent purpura or relapse; WBC > 15 × 109/L; platelets > 500 × 109/L; elevated ASO; and low C3. Relevant clinical interventions for these risk factors may exert positive effects on the prevention of kidney disease during the early

  6. Behavioral risk factors of breast cancer in Bangui of Central African Republic: A retrospective case-control study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augustin Balekouzou

    , groundnut, soybean, alcohol, habit of keeping money in bras, overweight and obesity were associated with breast cancer risk among Central African women living in Bangui. Women living in Bangui should be more cautious on the behavioral risk associated with breast cancer.

  7. Resourceful or At Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højen-Sørensen, Anna-Katharina

    Introduction: Social categories are used to determine which individuals are at an increased risk of unfavorable outcomes and they are a vital tool for the development of targeted interventions. This presentation takes a critical look at the Resourceful and At Risk categories, that are often emplo...... employed in research and social work, and investigate the possible consequences of the preconceptions born out of these categories....

  8. Managing Chemical & Material Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Certification Program Acquisition, Technology and Logistics 9 DoD Hexavalent Chromium Risk Reduction Non- Chrome Primer II EXAVAJ ENT CHROM lrUMI...Royal Demolition eXplosive (RDX) • Cyclotrimethylenetrinitramine  Hexavalent Chromium (Cr6+) Naphthalene …pending downgrade to watch list Beryllium...T1me (secondo) 700 Acquisition, Technology and Logistics 10 Hexavalent Chromium Risk Management Actions • DoD minimization policy signed April

  9. Risk, ambiguity, and diversification

    OpenAIRE

    Sautua, Santiago-Ignacio

    2016-01-01

    Attitudes toward risk influence the decision to diversify among uncertain options. Yet, because in most situations the options are ambiguous, attitudes toward ambiguity may also play an important role. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect of ambiguity on the decision to diversify. I find that diversification is more prevalent and more persistent under ambiguity than under risk. Moreover, excess diversification under ambiguity is driven by participants who stick with a s...

  10. Risk communication: Nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, H.P.

    1991-01-01

    The emphasis is put on communication processes, here in particular with regard to nuclear energy. Not so much dealt with are questions concerning political regulation, the constellation of power between those becoming active and risk perception by the population. Presented are individual arguments, political positions and decision-making processes. Dealt with in particular are safety philosophies, risk debates, and attempts to 'channel' all sides to the subject of nuclear energy. (DG) [de

  11. Radiation risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, P.B.

    1981-11-01

    This report outlines the major publications between 1976 and 1981 that have contributed to the evolution of the way in which radiation risks (cancer and hereditary birth defects) are assessed. The publications include the latest findings of the UNSCEAR, BEIR and ICRP committees, epidemiological studies at low doses and new assessments of the doses received by the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report is not a detailed critique of those publications, but it highlights the impact of their findings on risk assessment

  12. Uncertainty: lotteries and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ávalos, Eloy

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.

  13. Discounting and Expropriation Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Giovanni Immordino; Mario Padula

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the association between discounting and risk of expropriation and provides the theoretical conditions that make a positive association consistent with rationality. Moreover, using a national representative sample and a representative sample of the 50+ in eleven European countries, we show that discounting increases with expropriation risk. The two surveys give direct measures of discount rate as well as measures derived from households consumption decisions and provide...

  14. Risk management with options and futures under liquidity risk

    OpenAIRE

    Adam-Müller, A F A; Panaretou, A

    2009-01-01

    Futures hedging creates liquidity risk through marking to market. Liquidity risk matters if interim losses on a futures position have to be financed at a markup over the risk-free rate. This study analyzes the optimal risk management and production decisions of a firm facing joint price and liquidity risk. It provides a rationale for the use of options on futures in imperfect capital markets. If liquidity risk materializes, the firm sells options on futures in order to partly cover this liqui...

  15. Radiation risks in perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1987-01-01

    The problem of risk assessment is greater at the low effective dose rates now observed in the majority of all forms of exposure, usually of less than 3 mSv per year from natural causes, from occupational exposure, and from exposure of 'critical groups' of the general public. For most populations there are particular problems also in epidemiological studies at low dose, in addition to those due to the very large numbers of person-years that need to be studied and the long latencies of most radiation effects. Adequate estimates can, however, now be made of the carcinogenic risk of exposure at higher dose of various organs selectively and of the whole body uniformly, and of modes of inference to the risk at lower dose. Estimates can also be made of the risks of inducing major types of inheritable and developmental abnormality. An essential step in viewing the sum of all such radiation risks in the perspective of other occupational and public risks must now be to develop an informed consensus on the relative weight that is regarded as attaching to hazards of different kind and severity. (author)

  16. Regulatory risk coherence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Remick, F.J.

    1992-01-01

    As one of the most progressive users of risk assessment in decision making, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is in a position to play an important role in influencing the development of standard government wide policies for the application of risk assessment in decision making. The NRC, with the support of the nuclear industry, should use the opportunity provided by its experience with risk assessment to actively encourage the adoption of standard national and international health-based safety goals and at the same time accelerate its own efforts to implement the safety goals it has already developed for itself. There are signs of increased recognition of the need for consistency and coherence in the application of risk assessment in government decision making. The NRC and the nuclear industry have recently taken a great step toward establishing a consistant and coherent risk assessment-based culture in the US nuclear industry. As a result of Generic Letter 88-20, which asks each commercial nuclear power plant licensee to perform an individual plant examination by September 1992, for the first time a risk assessment characterizing initiating events in each plant will exist

  17. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  18. Radiation and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobi, W.

    1983-01-01

    From the beginnings of the peaceful utilization of nuclear energy, the principles of prevention and optimization have greatly limited the emission of radioactive substances. In this way, the radiation exposure associated with emissions from nuclear power plants during normal operation has been kept low compared with natural radiation exposure and its variance. This also applies to the local public in the vicinities of such plants. The present health hazard to the public arising from ionizing radiation is only a small fraction of the man-made risk to which the public is exposed in this country. This is also due to the fact that radiation protection employs the principle of prevention, which has been laid down in legal regulations. In this respect, the concepts and criteria developed in radiation protection for evaluation, limitation and optimization may be useful examples to other areas of safety at work and environmental protection. The acceptance of nuclear power is decisively influenced by the remaining residual risk of accidents. Extremely careful inspection and supervision of the technical safety of such plants is indispensable to prevent major accidents. The German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants has made an important contribution to this end. It is being continued. However, risk research must always be accompanied by risk comparison to allow numerical risk data to be evaluated properly and important features to be distinguished from unimportant ones. (orig.) [de

  19. Unsharpness-risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.

    1986-01-01

    Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

  20. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  1. RISK TRANSFER AND RISK REDUCTION OF ATHLETES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željko Vojinović

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the indispensable factors in sports is insurance. The accidents influence not only the health, permanently or temporarily,they also influence the financial resources, more or less, depending on the recovery time of the injuries. Insurer in this case pay the agreed amount (the agreed compensation to the insured. Each participant in the sporting competition should have personal insurance. The reasons for the theme are to find ways to explain how athletes can reduce the risks they are exposed to in doing their activities, training and competition, and other moments in life. Every man has a need for certainty in the future, regardless of the category in which he works, the values and skills available. The only difference is in absolute values and everyone has his own need. Athletes ,those from less successful to the most successful ones, whose transfers or fees are in millions, all think about the future and of course how to save and invest funds that are earned. They can find a solution in insurance, as an institution that takes over their risks, taking care of the invested money and benefits of those stakes. When there is uncertainty in our lives we seek security and see it as a basic need. Insurers claim that insurance offers just that - the security of property and life

  2. Adolescents' risk perceptions on mobile phones and their base stations, their trust to authorities and incivility in using mobile phones: a cross-sectional survey on 2240 high school students in Izmir, Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassoy, Hur; Durusoy, Raika; Karababa, Ali Osman

    2013-01-25

    Use of mobile phones has rapidly risen among adolescents despite a lack of scientific certainty on their health risks. Risk perception is an important determinant of behavior, and studies on adolescents' risk perceptions of mobile phones or base stations are very scarce. This study aims to evaluate high school students' risk perceptions on mobile phones and base stations, their trust to authorities, their opinions regarding incivility while using mobile phones and to assess associated factors. For this cross-sectional study, 2530 students were chosen with stratified cluster sampling among 20,493 high school students studying in Bornova district of Izmir, Turkey, among whom 2240 (88.5%) participated. Risk perceptions and opinions were questioned with a 5-point Likert scale for 24 statements grouped under four dimensions. The mean responses to the four dimensions were categorized as mobile phone, base station, trust to authority and incivility dimensions were 3.69 ± 0.89, 4.34 ± 0.78, 3.77 ± 0.93, 3.16 ± 0.93 and the prevalence of high risk perception was 65.1%, 86.7%, 66.2%, 39.7%, respectively. In the mobile phone dimension; students attending industrial technical high school had lower risk perceptions while female students, lower mothers' education groups and students not using mobile phones (OR = 2.82, 95% CI = 1.80-4.40) had higher risk perceptions. In the base station dimension girls had higher risk perceptions (OR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.20-2.37). Girls and students attending industrial technical high school had significantly lower risk perception however 11-12th grade group perceived the risk higher (OR = 1.45 95% CI = 1.15-1.84) in the trust to authority dimension. For the incivility dimension, female students (OR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.14-1.82), illiterate/only literate mothers (OR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.04-2.75) and students not using mobile phones (OR = 2.50, 95% CI = 1.62-3.87) perceived higher risk. Understanding the effects of these determinants might aid in

  3. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  4. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  5. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  6. A Taxonomy of Operational Risks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gallagher, Brian P; Case, Pamela J; Creel, Rita C; Kushner, Susan; Williams, Ray C

    2005-01-01

    ... identification of risks associated with the development of a software-dependent project. Since then, this method also has been used in the Software Risk Evaluation process to identify risks associated with the development of software-intensive systems...

  7. Risks for Heart Disease & Stroke

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Prevent Risks for Heart Disease & Stroke Risks for Heart Disease & Stroke About 1.5 million heart attacks and ... can’t change some of your risks for heart disease and stroke, but you can manage many of ...

  8. INTERNAL AUDIT AND RISK MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Elena RUSE; Georgiana SUSMANSCHI (BADEA); Daniel DĂNECI-PĂTRĂU

    2014-01-01

    The existence of risk in economic activity can not be denied. In fact, the risk is a concept which exists in every activity, the term of risk being identified with uncertainty, respectively the (un)chance to produce an undesirable event. Internal audit and risk management aim at the same goal, namely the control of risks. Internal Audit performs several roles in risk management plan. The objectives of the internal audit function varies from company to company, but in all economic entities int...

  9. Credit risk management in banks

    OpenAIRE

    Pětníková, Tereza

    2014-01-01

    The subject of this diploma thesis is managing credit risk in banks, as the most significant risk faced by banks. The aim of this work is to define the basic techniques, tools and methods that are used by banks to manage credit risk. The first part of this work focuses on defining these procedures and describes the entire process of credit risk management, from the definition of credit risk, describing credit strategy and policy, organizational structure, defining the most used credit risk mi...

  10. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  11. Thinking through cancer risk: characterizing smokers' process of risk determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Jennifer; Shuk, Elyse; Cruz, Gustavo; Ostroff, Jamie

    2005-10-01

    The perception of cancer risk motivates cancer risk reduction behaviors. However, common measurement strategies for cancer risk perceptions, which involve numerical likelihood estimates, do not adequately capture individuals' thoughts and feelings about cancer risk. To guide the development of novel measurement strategies, the authors used semistructured interviews to examine the thought processes used by smokers (N = 15) as they considered their cancer risk. They used grounded theory to guide systematic data coding and develop a heuristic model describing smokers' risk perception process that includes a cognitive, primarily rational process whereby salient personal risk factors for cancer are considered and combined, and an affective/attitudinal process, which shifts risk perceptions either up or down. The model provides a tentative explanation concerning how people hold cancer risk perceptions that diverge from rational assessment of their risks and will be useful in guiding the development of non-numerical measurements strategies for cancer risk perceptions.

  12. Reputation and its risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eccles, Robert G; Newquist, Scott C; Schatz, Roland

    2007-02-01

    Regulators, industry groups, consultants, and individual companies have developed elaborate guidelines over the years for assessing and managing risks in a wide range of areas, from commodity prices to natural disasters. Yet they have all but ignored reputational risk, mostly because they aren't sure how to define or measure it. That's a big problem, say the authors. Because so much market value comes from hard-to-assess intangible assets like brand equity and intellectual capital, organizations are especially vulnerable to anything that damages their reputations. Moreover, companies with strong positive reputations attract better talent and are perceived as providing more value in their products and services, which often allows them to charge a premium. Their customers are more loyal and buy broader ranges of products and services. Since the market believes that such companies will deliver sustained earnings and future growth, they have higher price-earnings multiples and market values and lower costs of capital. Most companies, however, do an inadequate job of managing their reputations in general and the risks to their reputations in particular. They tend to focus their energies on handling the threats to their reputations that have already surfaced. That is not risk management; it is crisis management--a reactive approach aimed at limiting the damage. The authors provide a framework for actively managing reputational risk. They introduce three factors (the reputation-reality gap, changing beliefs and expectations, and weak internal coordination) that affect the level of such risks and then explore several ways to sufficiently quantify and control those factors. The process outlined in this article will help managers do a better job of assessing existing and potential threats to their companies' reputations and deciding whether to accept a particular risk or take actions to avoid or mitigate it.

  13. [Detecting high risk pregnancy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doret, Muriel; Gaucherand, Pascal

    2009-12-20

    Antenatal care is aiming to reduce maternal land foetal mortality and morbidity. Maternal and foetal mortality can be due to different causes. Their knowledge allows identifying pregnancy (high risk pregnancy) with factors associated with an increased risk for maternal and/or foetal mortality and serious morbidity. Identification of high risk pregnancies and initiation of appropriate treatment and/or surveillance should improve maternal and/or foetal outcome. New risk factors are continuously described thanks to improvement in antenatal care and development in biology and cytopathology, increasing complexity in identifying high risk pregnancies. Level of risk can change all over the pregnancy. Ideally, it should be evaluated prior to the pregnancy and at each antenatal visit. Clinical examination is able to screen for intra-uterin growth restriction, pre-eclampsia, threatened for preterm labour; ultrasounds help in the diagnosis of foetal morphological anomalies, foetal chromosomal anomalies, placenta praevia and abnormal foetal growth; biological exams are used to screen for pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, trisomy 21 (for which screening method just changed), rhesus immunisation, seroconversion for toxoplasmosis or rubeola, unknown infectious disease (syphilis, hepatitis B, VIH). During pregnancy, most of the preventive strategies have to be initiated during the first trimester or even before conception. Prevention for neural-tube defects, neonatal hypocalcemia and listeriosis should be performed for all women. On the opposite, some measures are concerning only women with risk factors such as prevention for toxoplasmosis, rhesus immunization (which recently changed), tobacco complications and pre-eclampsia and intra-uterine growth factor restriction.

  14. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  15. Current Chemical Risk Management Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's existing chemicals programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  16. Risk communication. Risk studies in social science; Risk communication. Risk kenkyu eno shakai kagakuteki approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asami, M. [Keio Univ., Tokyo (Japan)

    1995-11-05

    It is recently, that is, in and after the 1980s that socio-scientific approaches began to be made to studies on `risk`. It started to be made clear that the progress of the scientific technology does not necessarily bring about good news to man, and obvious estrangement has begun to appear between scientific evaluation and social evaluation of risk. The subject of risk communication (RC) study is to tackle a proposition whether the estrangement will continue to exist as estrangement or the estrangement can be made smaller by any means. This paper explains the recent trend of the study. For example, as for how each individual thinks about risk, that is, the risk perception, a new framework is trially being constructed by introduction of the quantitative method using psychometrics. A duty of RC is to serve to bridge the gap between scientific technology and society which are controlled by values which are incompatible with each other. Therefore, RC will be more and more important. 15 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  17. Genetic risks from radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selby, P.B.

    Two widely-recognized committees, UNSCEAR and BEIR, have reevaluated their estimates of genetic risks from radiation. Their estimates for gene mutations are based on two different approaches, one being the doubling-dose approach and the other being a new direct approach based on an empirical determination of the amount of dominant induced damage in the skeletons of mice in the first generation following irradiation. The estimates made by these committees are in reasonably good agreement and suggest that the genetic risks from present exposures resultng from nuclear power production are small. There is room for much improvement in the reliability of the risk estimates. The relatively new approach of measuring the amount of induced damage to the mouse skeleton shows great promise of improving knowledge about how changes in the mutation frequency affect the incidence of genetic disorders. Such findings may have considerable influence on genetic risk estimates for radiation and on the development of risk estimates for other less-well-understood environmental mutagens. (author)

  18. Cancer risk from inorganics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swierenga, S.H.; Gilman, J.P.; McLean, J.R.

    1987-01-01

    Inorganic metals and minerals for which there is evidence of carcinogenicity are identified. The risk of cancer from contact with them in the work place, the general environment, and under conditions of clinical (medical) exposure is discussed. The evidence indicates that minerals and metals most often influence cancer development through their action as cocarcinogens. The relationship between the physical form of mineral fibers, smoking and carcinogenic risk is emphasized. Metals are categorized as established (As, Be, Cr, Ni), suspected (Cd, Pb) and possible carcinogens, based on the existing in vitro, animal experimental and human epidemiological data. Cancer risk and possible modes of action of elements in each class are discussed. Views on mechanisms that may be responsible for the carcinogenicity of metals are updated and analysed. Some specific examples of cancer risks associated with the clinical use of potentially carcinogenic metals and from radioactive pharmaceuticals used in therapy and diagnosis are presented. Questions are raised as to the effectiveness of conventional dosimetry in accurately measuring risk from radiopharmaceuticals. 302 references

  19. Java project on periodontal diseases. The natural development of periodontitis: risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants : risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Velden, U.; Abbas, F.; Armand, S.; Loos, B. G.; Timmerman, M. F.; Van der Weijden, G. A.; Van Winkelhoff, A. J.; Winkel, E. G.

    Objective: To identify risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants for onset and progression of periodontitis. Material and Methods: For this longitudinal, prospective study all subjects in the age range 15-25 years living in a village of approximately 2000 inhabitants at a tea estate on

  20. Sound construction of risk indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Peter Borgen; Kjær, Christian; Thomsen, Marianne

      In spite of the great effort in the area of environmental risk assessment of chemicals, a critical amount of uncertainty is still a reality due to high complexity of the governing risk problem. Unexpected adverse effects may thus take place event though the risk assessment predicts no-risk. Some...... chemicals are even lacking risk assessment due to a priori judgment based on risk screening methods that bypass further risk assessment activity. It is thus advisable to set up a safety net under the risk assessment of chemicals and this poster suggests a supporting paradigm using risk indicators...... that governs the method: HotSpot Driven Aggregation of Risk Indicators (HoSDARI) as described in Sørensen et al. (2008). The purpose of the risk assessment is to protect a defined target that has some value for protection. The target has a number of realizations each defined as a Protection Unit (PU...