Methods for Improving the Diagnosis of a Brugada ECG Pattern.

Science.gov (United States)

Gottschalk, Byron H; Garcia-Niebla, Javier; Anselm, Daniel D; Glover, Benedict; Baranchuk, Adrian

2016-03-01

Brugada syndrome (BrS) is an inherited channelopathy that predisposes individuals to malignant arrhythmias and can lead to sudden cardiac death. The condition is characterized by two electrocardiography (ECG) patterns: the type-1 or "coved" ECG and the type-2 or "saddleback" ECG. Although the type-1 Brugada ECG pattern is diagnostic for the condition, the type-2 Brugada ECG pattern requires differential diagnosis from conditions that produce a similar morphology. In this article, we present a case that is suspicious but not diagnostic for BrS and discuss the application of ECG methodologies for increasing or decreasing suspicion for a diagnosis of BrS. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Brugada-Phenocopy Induced by Propafenone Overdose and Successful Treatment: A Case Report

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehmet Emre Arı

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Background: Brugada syndrome is an inherited arrhythmogenic disease that may cause sudden cardiac death due to ventricular fibrillation in young adults. Brugada syndrome caused by propafenone intoxication has been noted rarely in the literature. We report a rare case, Brugada phenocopy due to propafenone intoxication and its treatment. Case Report: A 15-year-old girl having a seizure was brought to the emergency room. She took 1.5 g propafenone (Rythmol, Abbott, Chicago, IL, USA for suicidal intention. She had metabolic acidosis. Long QRS interval and ST elevation in leads V1 through V3 were seen on electrocardiography. After bicarbonate infusion for 4 hours, haemodynamic and neurologic findings were recovered, and all electrocardiography abnormalities disappeared. The Brugada-like electrocardiography pattern was not recognized in her surface and 24-hour Holter electrocardiography at follow-up. Ajmaline challenge test was negative 2 weeks later. Conclusion: Absence of symptoms and documented ventricular tachycardia, negative challenge test, and a negative family history demonstrated that the Brugada phenocopy was a transient finding in this case and related to propafenone intoxication

Brugada Phenocopy Induced by Recreational Drug Use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adedoyin Akinlonu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Recreational drugs are commonly abused in all age groups. Intoxication with these substances can induce silent but significant electrocardiographic signs which may lead to sudden death. In this case study, we present a 49-year-old male with no medical comorbidities who came to the emergency department requesting opioid detoxification. Toxicology screen was positive for cocaine, heroin, and cannabis. Initial electrocardiogram (EKG showed features of a Brugada pattern in the right precordial leads, which resolved within one day into admission. This presentation is consistent with the recently recognized clinical entity known as Brugada phenocopy.

Clinical outcome and risk stratification in Brugada syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tadashi Wada, MD

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Since the first report on Brugada syndrome, various risk markers for the prediction of ventricular fibrillation (VF in patients with Brugada syndrome have been reported. Multicenter trials reported spontaneous type 1 electrocardiogram (ECG and disease symptoms as prognostic predictors. VF induction by programmed electrical stimulation is still controversial, and most of the studies have failed to prove its significance for the prediction of spontaneous VF episodes. In Japan, although most multicenter studies have shown that patients with type 1 ECG were at high risk, it is difficult to determine the indication for implantation of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator only based on the ECG type. Recent studies have added new risk markers, such as inferolateral early repolarization, fragmented QRS, and shorter effective refractory periods of the ventricle, in addition to type 1 ECG and symptoms. Here, we review the clinical outcome and indices reported as reliable prognostic factors of Brugada syndrome with a focus on the clinical and ECG markers for risk stratification.

Coexistent Brugada Syndrome and Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome: What is the Optimal Management?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abhishek Jaiswal, MBBS

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Coexistent Brugada syndrome and Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW syndrome is rare, and as such poses management challenges. The overlap of symptoms attributable to each condition, the timing of ventricular stimulation after accessory pathway ablation and the predictive value of programmed stimulation in Brugada syndrome are controversial. We describe a case of coexistent Brugada syndrome and WPW syndrome in a symptomatic young adult. We discuss our treatment approach and the existing literature along with the challenges in management of such cases.

Inferior ST-Elevation Acute Myocardial Infarction or an Inferior-Lead Brugada-like Electrocardiogram Pattern Associated With the Use of Pregabalin and Quetiapine?

Science.gov (United States)

Brunetti, Natale D; Ieva, Riccardo; Correale, Michele; Cuculo, Andrea; Santoro, Francesco; Guaricci, Andrea I; De Gennaro, Luisa; Gaglione, Antonio; Di Biase, Matteo

2016-01-01

The Brugada electrocardiogram pattern is characterized by coved-type ST-elevation (>2 mm) in the right precordial leads. We report the case of a 62-year-old man, with bipolar disorder, admitted to the emergency department because of dyspnea and chest discomfort. The patient was on treatment with pregabalin and quetiapine. Unexpectedly, electrocardiogram at admission showed diffuse ST-elevation, more evident in inferior leads, where a Brugada-like pattern was present. The patient underwent coronary angiography with a diagnosis of suspected acute coronary syndrome. Coronary angiography, however, showed mild coronary artery disease not requiring coronary angioplasty. Echocardiography did not reveal left ventricular dysfunction or pericardial effusion. Troponin levels remained normal over serial controls. Eventually, chest radiography showed lung opacities and consolidation suggestive for pneumonia. To the best of our knowledge, this is one of the first cases showing a transient Brugada-like electrocardiogram pattern in inferior leads, probably amplified by the administration of pregabalin and quetiapine.

Programmed Ventricular Stimulation for Risk Stratification in the Brugada Syndrome: A Pooled Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sroubek, Jakub; Probst, Vincent; Mazzanti, Andrea; Delise, Pietro; Hevia, Jesus Castro; Ohkubo, Kimie; Zorzi, Alessandro; Champagne, Jean; Kostopoulou, Anna; Yin, Xiaoyan; Napolitano, Carlo; Milan, David J.; Wilde, Arthur; Sacher, Frederic; Borggrefe, Martin; Ellinor, Patrick T.; Theodorakis, George; Nault, Isabelle; Corrado, Domenico; Watanabe, Ichiro; Antzelevitch, Charles; Allocca, Giuseppe; Priori, Silvia G.; Lubitz, Steven A.

2016-01-01

The role of programmed ventricular stimulation in identifying patients with Brugada syndrome at the highest risk for sudden death is uncertain. We performed a systematic review and pooled analysis of prospective, observational studies of patients with Brugada syndrome without a history of sudden

Brugada syndrome with a novel missense mutation in SCN5A gene: A case report from Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Md. Zahidus Sayeed

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Brugada syndrome is an inherited cardiac arrhythmia that follows autosomal dominant transmission and can cause sudden death. We report a case of Brugada syndrome in a 55-year-old male patient presented with recurrent palpitation, atypical chest pain and presyncope. ECG changes were consistent with type 1 Brugada. Gene analysis revealed a novel missense mutation in SCN5A gene with a genetic variation of D785N and a nucleotide change at 2353G-A. One of his children also had the same mutation. To our knowledge this is the first genetically proved case of Brugada syndrome in Bangladesh.

Brugada Syndrome in a Patient with Vascular Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome: Sudden Death Risk Amplified.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Souza, Jason; Malhotra, Divyanshu; Goud, Aditya; Dahagam, Chanukya; Everett, George

2017-04-19

The vast majority of sudden cardiac arrests occur in patients with structural heart disease and in approximately 10% of the cases, it can occur in those with structurally normal hearts. Brugada syndrome is an autosomal dominant sodium channelopathy that has been implicated in sudden deaths. Given their low prevalence, our knowledge about Brugada syndrome is still evolving. Apart from schizophrenia, there have been no reports of associated medical conditions. We recently encountered a patient with vascular Ehlers-Danlos syndrome who was also found to have Brugada syndrome. Both these conditions share some common clinical presentations including a propensity for sudden death.

47. A cardiac center experience with Brugada syndrome who survived sudden cardiac death

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Suliman

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Brugada syndrome is a heritable arrhythmia syndrome that is characterized by an electrocardiographic pattern consisting of coved-type ST-segment elevation (2 mm followed by a negative T wave in the right precordial leads, V1 through V3 (often referred to as type 1 Brugada electrocardiographic pattern, here we describe 3 cases of Brugada who survived sudden cardiac death (SCD cardiac center experience with survived Brugada syndrome patients – case series. First Case: The Father 45 years old male, presented in 2005 after involvement in unprovoked motor vehicle accident, the patient was the driver who lost consciousness and rushed to the hospital. On arrival to our ER and putting the patient on the bed, the ER doctor observed a brief episode of VF on the monitor. The patient was taken to the catheterization Lab , his coronaries were normal. The diagnosis of Brugada was established and the patient received a defibrillator. At That Time all family members were screened and were negative. Second Case: The Son of the first patient 5 years later his 23 years old male rushed to our ER after he lost consciousness, he was passenger in the car of his friend. Third Case: The pilot A military pilot aged a male 35 years old was in very good health when he lost consciousness and brought to the hospital after resuscitation in 2005. He had full invasive cardiac evaluation, subsequently he received a defibrillator in the same admission period, till 2015 he is doing fine. Brugada syndrome is associated with high tendency for sudden cardiac death. In our three cases the first clinical presentation was survived sudden cardiac death (SCD and all three male patients survived. We did not encounter a female patient who survived sudden cardiac death.

Safe drug use in long QT syndrome and Brugada syndrome: comparison of website statistics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Postema, Pieter G.; Neville, Jon; de Jong, Jonas S. S. G.; Romero, Klaus; Wilde, Arthur A. M.; Woosley, Raymond L.

2013-01-01

We sought to obtain insights into the efficacy of two websites, www.QTdrugs.org and www.BrugadaDrugs.org, that have the intention to prevent fatal arrhythmias due to unsafe drug use in Long QT syndrome and Brugada syndrome. Prospective web-use statistical analysis combined with online surveys were

Intermittent Brugada Syndrome Presenting with Syncope in an Adult Female

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patricia Chavez

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Brugada syndrome accounts for 4–12% of all sudden deaths worldwide and at least 20% of sudden deaths in patients with structurally normal hearts. Case Report. A 48-year-old female presented to the emergency department after two witnessed syncopal episodes. While awaiting discharge had a third collapse followed by cardiac arrest with shockable rhythm. Initial electrocardiogram showed wide QRS complex with left axis deviation, ST-segment elevation of 2 mm followed by a negative T wave with no isoelectric separation, suggestive of spontaneous intermittent Brugada type 1 pattern. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging demonstrated neither structural heart disease nor abnormal myocardium. After placement of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator the patient was discharged. Why should an emergency physician be aware of this? Brugada syndrome is an infrequently encountered clinical entity which may have a fatal outcome. This syndrome primarily presents with syncope. It should be considered as a component of differential diagnosis in patients with family history of syncope and sudden cardiac death.

Inappropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator shocks in Brugada syndrome: Pattern in primary and secondary prevention

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aimé Bonny

2017-01-01

Conclusion: Inappropriate shock is common in Brugada syndrome during the early periods after an ICD implantation, and seems to be more likely in asymptomatic patients. This finding may warrant a review of the indications for ICD implantation, especially in the young and apparently healthy population of patients with Brugada syndrome.

Absence of family history and phenotype-genotype correlation in pediatric Brugada syndrome: more burden to bear in clinical and genetic diagnosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Daimi, Houria; Khelil, Amel Haj; Ben Hamda, Khaldoun; Aranega, Amelia; Chibani, Jemni B E; Franco, Diego

2015-06-01

Brugada syndrome (BrS) is an autosomal-dominant genetic cardiac disorder caused in 18-30 % of the cases by SCN5A gene mutations and manifested by an atypical right bundle block pattern with ST segment elevation and T wave inversion in the right precordial leads. The syndrome is usually detected after puberty. The identification of BrS in pediatric patients is thus a rare occurrence, and most of the reported cases are unmasked after febrile episodes. Usually, having a family history of sudden death represents the first reason to perform an ECG in febrile children. However, this practice makes the sporadic cases of cardiac disease and specially the asymptomatic ones excluded from this diagnosis. Here, we report a sporadic case of a 2-month-old male patient presented with vaccination-related fever and ventricular tachycardia associated with short breathing, palpitation and cold sweating. ECG changes were consistent with type 1 BrS. SCN5A gene analysis of the proband and his family revealed a set of mutations and polymorphisms differentially distributed among family members, however, without any clear genotype-phenotype correlation. Based on our findings, we think that genetic testing should be pursued as a routine practice in symptomatic and asymptomatic pediatric cases of BrS, with or without family history of sudden cardiac death. Similarly, our study suggests that pediatrician should be encouraged to perform an ECG profiling in suspicious febrile children and quickly manage fever since it is the most important factor unmasking BrS in children.

Value of the electrocardiogram in the diagnosis and prognosis of Brugada syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez-Riera, A; Femenia, F.; Baranchuk Facc, A

2011-01-01

Twelve-lead ECG associated to high right para sternal accessory leads is the resource that yields a greatest number of diagnostic and prognostic information in patients carriers of Brugada (Br S). By this simple, cheap, reproducible, and operator-independent method, depolarization alterations can be studied as well as ventricular re polarization aspects. The method allows diagnosing frequent episodes of atrial fibrillation and other supraventricular arrhythmias, as well as characterizing the different ventricular tachyarrhythmias. The analysis of the Frank VCG (F-VCG) of patients with Br S suggests the duality of the underlying pathophysiologic mechanisms of the Brugada Type-1 ECG pattern. F-VCG of patients with Brugada type-1 ECG pattern has distinctive characteristics from the F-VCG of individuals with R BBB pattern. The understanding of these mechanisms may help to guide future therapeutic efforts to control the channels dysfunction associated with this intriguing channelopaty

Sudden Cardiac Arrest due to Brugada Syndrome: a Case Report and Literature Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R Soleimanirad

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Brugada Syndrome is a rare cause of sudden cardiac arrest and has a unique ECG pattern. In fact, with ST-segment elevation down sloping in the right precordial leads (v1-v3, RBBB pattern in lateral leads and J-point elevation is revealed. We must notice and avoid trigger factors of this syndrome during general anesthesia. Patient is a 39 old man who attended to emergency department with sudden cardiac arrest and resuscitate. He was transferred to ICU for management of hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy. Complementary studies concluded the diagnosis of Brugada syndrome. We must consider Brugada syndrome within patients with family history of sudden cardiac arrest. Moreover, we must avoid trigger factors of this syndrome such as fever, bradicardia and electrolyte abnormality (specialy Na, Ca abnormalities during general anesthesia and if they appear, we should treat them.

Brugada-like Precordial ST Elevation on ECG by Anterior Mediastinal Infective Mass Lesion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuji Nakazato

2003-07-01

Full Text Available Several causes are known to induce the right precordial ST elevation mimicking Brugada syndrome. Right ventricular outflow area is assumed to be responsible for such ECG changes. We experienced a case of anterior mediastinal infective mass lesion with a Brugada-like ECG. A 52-year-old female, who has pulmonary stenosis and recurrent episodes of right ventricular heart failure, complained of high fever, abdominal discomfort, and edema. On physical examination, jugular vein dilation, hepatomegaly, and facial and leg edema were noted. Leucocytosis was also noted on blood examination. An ECG showed right ventricular hypertrophy, incomplete right bundle branch block pattern and marked ST elevation on precordial leads mimicking Brugada syndrome. Magnetic resonance imaging revealed an abnormal mass shadow located on the anterior mediastinum and compressing the right ventricle (Figure 1A. Trans-thoracic echocardiography also showed the high echogenic mass lesion at the anterior side of right ventricle and the vicinity of pulmonary valve. After treatment with antibiotics, the mass lesion gradually shrunk. Concomitantly, the ST elevation disappeared with improvement of inflammatory markers (Figure 1B. The symptoms suggesting right ventricular failure were also ameliorated. The mechanism of Brugada-like ST elevation in this patient was considered to be compression, by the abnormal infective mass, of the right ventricular outflow tract with/without focal pericardial inflammation.

Síndrome de Brugada en un paciente con síncope: Presentación de un caso y revisión de la literatura Brugada syndrome in a patient with syncope: A case report and literature review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos J Jaramillo

2010-08-01

Full Text Available El síndrome de Brugada es una enfermedad autosómica dominante esporádica que afecta los canales de sodio de los miocardiocitos. Clínicamente se caracteriza por síncopes recurrentes y/o muerte súbita, que en el electrocardiograma simula un bloqueo de rama derecha, acompañado de elevación peculiar del segmento ST en las derivaciones precordiales derechas (V1, V2 y V3 sin alteración cardiaca estructural. Afecta principalmente a hombres en la cuarta década de la vida y tiene mayor prevalencia en el suroeste asiático. El caso que se describe corresponde a un paciente con antecedentes personales de síncopes, a quien se le encuentra un patrón electrocardiográfico tipo-2 de Brugada y quien además tiene un hermano con historia de síncopes. Con una prueba de mesa basculantes positivo para síncope mediado neuralmente se deja este diagnóstico, pero no se descarta la sospecha inicial de síndrome de Brugada.Brugada syndrome is a sporadic autosomal dominant genetic disease that affects cardiac sodium channels. It is clinically characterized by recurrent syncope and/or sudden death with electrocardiographic manifestations that simulate a right bundle branch block accompanied by ST-segment elevation in the right precordial leads (V1, V2 and V3 without structural cardiac changes. It mainly affects men in their fourth decade and is most prevalent in southwestern Asia. We present the case of a patient with history of syncope, type-2 Brugada electrocardiographic pattern and who has a brother also with history of syncope. The patient had a positive tilt test for neurocardiogenic syncope. He was diagnosed as neurocardiogenic syndrome, without discarding the initial suspicion of Brugada syndrome.

Brugada syndrome: report of the second consensus conference

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Antzelevitch, Charles; Brugada, Pedro; Borggrefe, Martin; Brugada, Josep; Brugada, Ramon; Corrado, Domenico; Gussak, Ihor; LeMarec, Herve; Nademanee, Koonlawee; Perez Riera, Andres Ricardo; Shimizu, Wataru; Schulze-Bahr, Eric; Tan, Hanno; Wilde, Arthur

2005-01-01

Since its introduction as a clinical entity in 1992, the Brugada syndrome has progressed from being a rare disease to one that is second only to automobile accidents as a cause of death among young adults in some countries. Electrocardiographically characterized by a distinct ST-segment elevation in

A Report of Brugada Syndrome Presenting with Cardiac Arrest Triggered by Verapamil Intoxication.

Science.gov (United States)

Yakut, Kahraman; Erdoğan, İlkay; Varan, Birgül; Atar, İlyas

2017-12-01

Brugada syndrome is a disease characterized by a specific electrocardiographic pattern and an increased risk of sudden cardiac death. We present this case with the updated literature to emphasise the need to consider the diagnosis of Brugada syndrome in patients admitted to the emergency ward with sudden cardiac arrest. A 16-year-old female patient was admitted to the emergency ward with complaints of weakness and abdominal pain, and she had four cardiac arrests during her evaluation period. She was referred to our clinic for permanent pacemaker implantation. She was on a temporary pace maker after having had C-reactive protein. Her physical exam was normal except for bilaterally decreased lung sounds. Lung x-ray and computed tomography, which were performed by another institution, revealed minimal pleural effusion and nothing else of significance. Blood and peritoneal fluid samples were sterile. Echocardiographic exam and cardiac enzymes were also in the normal ranges. Electrocardiographic showed incomplete right branch block in leads V1 and V2. An ajmaline test revealed specific electrocardiographic findings of the type I Brugada pattern. We proposed implanting an implantable cardioverter defibrillator to the patient as there were positive findings on the ajmaline test as well as a history of sudden cardiac arrest. After this treatment proposal, the patient's family admitted that she had taken a high dose of verapamil and thus, the encountered bradycardia was associated with verapamil overuse. The ajmaline test was repeated as it was contemplated that the previous positive ajmaline test had been associated with verapamil overuse. Implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation was proposed again as there was a history of sudden cardiac arrest; however, the family did not consent to implantable cardioverter defibrillator, and the patient was discharged and followed up. Brugada syndrome should be considered for patients who are admitted to the emergency ward

Clinical aspects and prognosis of Brugada syndrome in children

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Probst, Vincent; Denjoy, Isabelle; Meregalli, Paola G.; Amirault, Jean-Christophe; Sacher, Frederic; Mansourati, Jacques; Babuty, Dominique; Villain, Elisabeth; Victor, Jacques; Schott, Jean-Jacques; Lupoglazoff, Jean-Marc; Mabo, Philippe; Veltmann, Christian; Jesel, Laurence; Chevalier, Philippe; Clur, Sally-Ann B.; Haissaguerre, Michel; Wolpert, Christian; Le Marec, Herve; Wilde, Arthur A. M.

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND: Brugada syndrome is an arrhythmogenic disease characterized by an ECG pattern of ST-segment elevation in the right precordial leads and augmented risk of sudden cardiac death. Little is known about the clinical presentation and prognosis of this disease in children. METHODS AND RESULTS:

The prevalence and relevance of the Brugada-type electrocardiogram in the Danish general population: data from the Copenhagen City Heart Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pecini, Redi; Cedergreen, Pernille Kallerup; Theilade, Simone

2010-01-01

The prevalence of the Brugada-type electrocardiogram (ECG) in the Danish population is not known.......The prevalence of the Brugada-type electrocardiogram (ECG) in the Danish population is not known....

Specificity of elevated intercostal space ECG recording for the type 1 Brugada ECG pattern

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holst, Anders G; Tangø, Mogens; Batchvarov, Velislav

2012-01-01

Right precordial (V1-3) elevated electrode placement ECG (EEP-ECG) is often used in the diagnosis of Brugada syndrome (BrS). However, the specificity of this has only been studied in smaller studies in Asian populations. We aimed to study this in a larger European population.......Right precordial (V1-3) elevated electrode placement ECG (EEP-ECG) is often used in the diagnosis of Brugada syndrome (BrS). However, the specificity of this has only been studied in smaller studies in Asian populations. We aimed to study this in a larger European population....

Cellular mechanisms underlying the effects of milrinone and cilostazol to suppress arrhythmogenesis associated with Brugada syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Szél, Tamás; Koncz, István; Antzelevitch, Charles

2013-11-01

Brugada syndrome is an inherited disease associated with vulnerability to ventricular tachycardia and sudden cardiac death in young adults. Milrinone and cilostazol, oral phosphodiesterase (PDE) type III inhibitors, have been shown to increase L-type calcium channel current (ICa) and modestly increase heart rate by elevating the level of intracellular cyclic adenosine monophosphate. To examine the effectiveness of these PDE inhibitors to suppress arrhythmogenesis in an experimental model of Brugada syndrome. Action potential (AP) and electrocardiographic recordings were obtained from epicardial and endocardial sites of coronary-perfused canine right ventricular wedge preparations. The Ito agonist NS5806 (5 μM) and Ca(2+) channel blocker verapamil (2 μM) were used to pharmacologically mimic Brugada phenotype. The combination induced all-or-none repolarization at some epicardial sites but not others, leading to ST-segment elevation as well as an increase in both epicardial and transmural dispersion of repolarization. Under these conditions, phase 2 reentry developed as the epicardial AP dome propagated from sites where it was maintained to sites at which it was lost, generating closely coupled extrasystoles and ventricular tachycardia. The addition of the PDE inhibitor milrinone (2.5 μM) or cilostazol (5-10 μM) to the coronary perfusate restored the epicardial AP dome, reduced dispersion, and abolished phase 2 reentry-induced extrasystoles and ventricular tachycardia. Our study identifies milrinone as a more potent alternative to cilostazol for reversing the repolarization defects responsible for the electrocardiographic and arrhythmic manifestations of Brugada syndrome. Both drugs normalize ST-segment elevation and suppress arrhythmogenesis in experimental models of Brugada syndrome. © 2013 Heart Rhythm Society. All rights reserved.

A Report of Brugada Syndrome Presenting with Cardiac Arrest Triggered by Verapamil Intoxication

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kahraman Yakut

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Brugada syndrome is a disease characterized by a specific electrocardiographic pattern and an increased risk of sudden cardiac death. We present this case with the updated literature to emphasise the need to consider the diagnosis of Brugada syndrome in patients admitted to the emergency ward with sudden cardiac arrest. Case Report: A 16-year-old female patient was admitted to the emergency ward with complaints of weakness and abdominal pain, and she had four cardiac arrests during her evaluation period. She was referred to our clinic for permanent pacemaker implantation. She was on a temporary pace maker after having had C-reactive protein. Her physical exam was normal except for bilaterally decreased lung sounds. Lung x-ray and computed tomography, which were performed by another institution, revealed minimal pleural effusion and nothing else of significance. Blood and peritoneal fluid samples were sterile. Echocardiographic exam and cardiac enzymes were also in the normal ranges. Electrocardiographic showed incomplete right branch block in leads V1 and V2. An ajmaline test revealed specific electrocardiographic findings of the type I Brugada pattern. We proposed implanting an implantable cardioverter defibrillator to the patient as there were positive findings on the ajmaline test as well as a history of sudden cardiac arrest. After this treatment proposal, the patient’s family admitted that she had taken a high dose of verapamil and thus, the encountered bradycardia was associated with verapamil overuse. The ajmaline test was repeated as it was contemplated that the previous positive ajmaline test had been associated with verapamil overuse. Implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation was proposed again as there was a history of sudden cardiac arrest; however, the family did not consent to implantable cardioverter defibrillator, and the patient was discharged and followed up. Conclusion: Brugada syndrome should be

[The Brugada Syndrome in a Teenager].

Science.gov (United States)

Miklashevich, I M; Kuleshova, E V; Termosesov, S A; Shkolnikova, M A

2017-02-01

The Brugada syndrome (BS) belongs to the group of hereditary channelopathies associated with elevated risk of sudden death (SD) in the absence of structural heart diseases. The disorder phenotypically manifests by specific electrocardiographic pattern, associated with ventricular tachycardia (VT). VT can be accompanied by loss of conscience, and after transformation to ventricular fibrillation result in SD. BS is extremely rare among children and adolescents. We present here a clinical case of teenager (age 17 years) with BS manifested by syncopal state at the background of fever.

New methodologies for measuring Brugada ECG patterns cannot differentiate the ECG pattern of Brugada syndrome from Brugada phenocopy.

Science.gov (United States)

Gottschalk, Byron H; Garcia-Niebla, Javier; Anselm, Daniel D; Jaidka, Atul; De Luna, Antoni Bayés; Baranchuk, Adrian

2016-01-01

Brugada phenocopies (BrP) are clinical entities characterized by ECG patterns that are identical to true Brugada syndrome (BrS), but are elicited by various clinical circumstances. A recent study demonstrated that the patterns of BrP and BrS are indistinguishable under the naked eye, thereby validating the concept that the patterns are identical. The aim of our study was to determine whether recently developed ECG criteria would allow for discrimination between type-2 BrS ECG pattern and type-2 BrP ECG pattern. Ten ECGs from confirmed BrS (aborted sudden death, transformation into type 1 upon sodium channel blocking test and/or ventricular arrhythmias, positive genetics) cases and 9 ECGs from confirmed BrP were included in the study. Surface 12-lead ECGs were scanned, saved in JPEG format for blind measurement of two values: (i) β-angle; and (ii) the base of the triangle. Cut-off values of ≥58° for the β-angle and ≥4mm for the base of the triangle were used to determine the BrS ECG pattern. Mean values for the β-angle in leads V1 and V2 were 66.7±25.5 and 55.4±28.1 for BrS and 54.1±26.5 and 43.1±16.1 for BrP respectively (p=NS). Mean values for the base of the triangle in V1 and V2 were 7.5±3.9 and 5.7±3.9 for BrS and 5.6±3.2 and 4.7±2.7 for BrP respectively (p=NS). The β-angle had a sensitivity of 60%, specificity of 78% (LR+ 2.7, LR- 0.5). The base of the triangle had a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 40% (LR+ 1.4, LR- 0.5). New ECG criteria presented relatively low sensitivity and specificity, positive and negative predictive values to discriminate between BrS and BrP ECG patterns, providing further evidence that the two patterns are identical. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Brugada Syndrome: Are we doing enough to prevent sudden death?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buksh, Jahangir A.; Al-Hersi, Ahmad S.; Al-Nozha, Mansour M.

2007-01-01

Burgada syndrome (BS) is an inherited arrythmogenic disease characterized by typical ECG changes in the form of an SR pattern in VI to V2, and ST segment elevation in VI to V3 and prolongation of the QT interval in right precordial leads. This syndrome carries an increased risk of sudden death due to arrhythmias. This disease was first described in 1992 by Joseph Brugada et al and was named Brugada syndrome by Yan and Antzelvich in 1996. By 2003 more than 600 patients had been reported by Brugada et al and hundreds by others. A genetic aspect to BS is now recognized and been linked to the alpha subunit of the cardiac sodium channel gene SCN5A. Over five dozen mutations in SCN5A have been identified. Accentuation of the right ventricular notch under pathophysiological conditions leads to exaggeration of the J-wave or J-point elevation and a saddle-shaped configuration of the repolarisation waves. Diagnosis is essentially by electrocardiogram either by spontaneous changes or by provocation by sodium channel blockers drugs, e.g., procainamide, flecainide. The role of electrophysiological studies in induction of arrhythmia in asymptomatic individuals by electron beam computed tomography and signal-averaged electrocardiogram is not settled. Unfortunately, an effective drug is not available is not available at present, but quinidine has a place in treatment. New promising drugs are emerging like cilostazol and tedisamil. At present, implantation of an ICD is the only effective means of preventing sudden death. (author)

Brugada syndrome is associated with scar and endocardial involvement: Insights from high-density mapping with the Rhythmia™ mapping system.

Science.gov (United States)

Providência, Rui; Carmo, Pedro; Moscoso Costa, Francisco; Cavaco, Diogo; Morgado, Francisco; Scanavacca, Mauricio; Adragão, Pedro

2017-10-01

The authors report the first catheter ablation of Brugada syndrome in the literature using the Rhythmia™ mapping system. Learning points include: (1) low voltage areas can be documented while mapping in some individuals, suggesting that Brugada syndrome may not be a pure ion channel disorder; (2) typical long fractionated potentials can also be identified in the endocardium, supporting the need to map the endocardium in all Brugada patients requiring ablation; (3) disappearance of the typical coved pattern following ablation does not necessarily predict cure, as the patient we present experienced ventricular fibrillation recurrence a few months later. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Usefulness of ST elevation score by using vector-projected virtual 187-channel ECG for risk stratification in patients with Brugada-type ECG pattern

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shoko Ishikawa

2012-08-01

Conclusion: The ST elevation score in VP-ECG objectively documented the degree of ST elevation in surface ECG in Brugada-type ECG patterns. The ST-elevation score might be useful for risk stratification in patients with asymptomatic Brugada syndrome.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of QRS Complexes Enable the Diagnosis of Brugada Syndrome Regardless of the Appearance of a Type 1 ECG.

Science.gov (United States)

Guillem, Maria S; Climent, Andreu M; Millet, José; Berne, Paola; Ramos, Rafael; Brugada, Josep; Brugada, Ramon

2016-05-01

The diagnosis of Brugada syndrome based on the ECG is hampered by the dynamic nature of its ECG manifestations. Brugada syndrome patients are only 25% likely to present a type 1 ECG. The objective of this study is to provide an ECG diagnostic criterion for Brugada syndrome patients that can be applied consistently even in the absence of a type 1 ECG. We recorded 67-lead body surface potential maps from 94 Brugada syndrome patients and 82 controls (including right bundle branch block patients and healthy individuals). The spatial propagation direction during the last r' wave and the slope at the end of the QRS complex were measured and compared between patients groups. Receiver-operating characteristic curves were constructed for half of the database to identify optimal cutoff values; sensitivity and specificity for these cutoff values were measured in the other half of the database. A spontaneous type 1 ECG was present in only 30% of BrS patients. An orientation in the sagittal plane ECG recordings can enable a robust identification of BrS even without the presence of a type 1 ECG. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Low disease prevalence and inappropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator shock rate in Brugada syndrome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holst, Anders Gaarsdal; Jensen, Henrik Kjærulf; Eschen, Ole

2012-01-01

AimsBrugada syndrome (BrS) is an inherited channelopathy that predisposes to malignant ventricular arrhythmias and thereby syncope and sudden cardiac death. Prior studies characterizing BrS patients have used highly selected referral populations from tertiary centres and prevalence estimates have...... been carried out using electrocardiogram (ECG) surveys only. We aimed to identify and characterize all diagnosed BrS patients in Denmark (population 5.4 million).Methods and resultsBrugada syndrome patients were identified using several modalities including identification in all Danish tertiary......%) experienced inappropriate shocks during a median follow-up of 47 months. No patient died or experienced aborted sudden cardiac death during follow-up.ConclusionsWe report the first nationwide study of BrS patients. We found a low incidence of diagnosed definite BrS compared with estimates from ECG surveys...

Diagnostic and genetic aspects of the Brugada and other inherited arrhythmias syndromes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Antzelevitch, Charles; Wilde, Arthur; Eckardt, Lars; Hiraoka, Masayasu; Corrado, Domenico

2007-01-01

Doctor Wilde, presenting on behalf of himself and Dr Eckardt, discussed the role of invasive and noninvasive tests for risk stratification of Brugada syndrome. Doctor Hiraoka, presenting on behalf of Y. Yokoyama, M. Takagi, N. Aihara, K. Aonuma, and the Japan Idiopathic Ventricular Fibrillation

Patrón de Brugada tipo II desencadenado por fiebre secundaria a una pielonefritis aguda por Enterobacter aerogenes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gema García García

2013-03-01

Brugada syndrome is a cause of sudden cardiac death in patients without structural heart disease. This syndrome is associated with mutations in the genes encoding the alpha subunit of the sodium channel of the heart. The Brugada syndrome is an autosomal dominant defect in cardiac conduction, which up to one third of patients is caused by mutations in the SCN5A gene. It is characterized by ST segment changes in leads V1-V3 resembling a right bundle branch block and confers high risk for ventricular arrhythmias and death súbita.

Brugada syndrome in a patient with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a case report.

Science.gov (United States)

Battineni, Anusha; Gummi, Rohit; Mullaguri, Naresh; Govindarajan, Raghav

2017-07-14

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a fatal neuromuscular disorder characterized by progressive death of the upper and lower motor neurons in the central nervous system. Patients with this disease die mostly as a result of respiratory failure; however, owing to prolonged survival through assisted ventilation, cardiovascular causes are increasingly responsible for mortality. We report what is to the best of our knowledge the first case of type 2 Brugada syndrome causing ventricular tachyarrhythmia and cardiac arrest in a patient with upper limb onset amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. A 48-year-old Caucasian woman with a significant past medical history of papillary thyroid carcinoma status postresection, pulmonary embolism on anticoagulation, and a recent diagnosis of right upper limb-onset amyotrophic lateral sclerosis presented to the emergency department of our hospital with acute on chronic shortness of breath. On further evaluation, she was found to have hypoxic and hypercapnic respiratory failure and was placed on bilevel positive airway pressure ventilation. Her 12-lead electrocardiogram showed sinus rhythm with J-point elevation, saddle-shaped ST segment elevation, predominantly in V1 and V2 with no significant QTc prolongation. No troponin elevation was noted in her laboratory workup. Because she was unable to protect her airway, a decision was made to intubate her. After 1 minute of induction with etomidate and succinylcholine, she went into pulseless ventricular tachycardia and fibrillation requiring three cycles of cardiopulmonary resuscitation with high-quality chest compressions, three doses of epinephrine, and a loading dose of amiodarone prior to return of spontaneous circulation. She was further evaluated by cardiology services and was diagnosed with type 2 Brugada syndrome, for which she was started on quinidine. Her respiratory failure and the drugs she received for intubation likely caused her ventricular tachycardia to occur in conjunction with an

Brugada syndrome and calcium channel mutation in a patient with congenital deaf mutism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Uğur Canpolat

2017-01-01

Full Text Available To the best of our knowledge, for the first time in the literature, we described a congenitally deaf-mute patient with Brugada syndrome (BrS in whom a mutation in L-type Ca+2 channel [CACNA1C (Cav1.2α1] was identified.

The Brugada syndrome. Outcome of one case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maia Ivan G.

2000-01-01

Full Text Available The Brugada syndrome is a rare condition, and due to its mutating manner of presentation it may be difficult to diagnose. We report one case and discuss the diagnostic aspects and the clinical outcome of one patient with characteristic findings of this syndrome. These findings are especially defined by J-ST elevation in the right leads of serial electrocardiographic records, wide oscillations of J points and ST segments during 24-hour Holter monitoring, and nocturnal sudden death. We stress the importance of the Holter monitor findings for diagnostic complementation. Through this method it is possible to establish a correlation between vigil activities and sleep and the variability of the degree of impairment in ventricular repolarization.

Common variants at SCN5A-SCN10A and HEY2 are associated with Brugada syndrome, a rare disease with high risk of sudden cardiac death

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bezzina, Connie; Barc, Julien; Mizusawa, Yuka

2013-01-01

Brugada syndrome is a rare cardiac arrhythmia disorder, causally related to SCN5A mutations in around 20% of cases. Through a genome-wide association study of 312 individuals with Brugada syndrome and 1,115 controls, we detected 2 significant association signals at the SCN10A locus (rs10428132) a...

Unmasking the social engineer the human element of security

CERN Document Server

Hadnagy, Christopher

2014-01-01

Learn to identify the social engineer by non-verbal behavior Unmasking the Social Engineer: The Human Element of Security focuses on combining the science of understanding non-verbal communications with the knowledge of how social engineers, scam artists and con men use these skills to build feelings of trust and rapport in their targets. The author helps readers understand how to identify and detect social engineers and scammers by analyzing their non-verbal behavior. Unmasking the Social Engineer shows how attacks work, explains nonverbal communications, and demonstrates with visuals the c

Unmasking sarcoidosis following surgery for Cushing disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Diernæs, Jon Erik; Bygum, Anette; Poulsen, Per L

2016-01-01

We present a patient with Cushing disease apparently suppressing sarcoidosis, which was unmasked following surgical resection of a pituitary adrenocorticotropin (ACTH)-producing microadenoma. Case report and a short review of the literature published in this area. A 46-year-old Caucasian woman pr...... successful treatment of Cushing syndrome may have a flare-up or emergence of a corticosteroid-responsive disease.......We present a patient with Cushing disease apparently suppressing sarcoidosis, which was unmasked following surgical resection of a pituitary adrenocorticotropin (ACTH)-producing microadenoma. Case report and a short review of the literature published in this area. A 46-year-old Caucasian woman...... for which the patient underwent transphenoidal resection. Maintenance corticosteroid therapy was implemented, and the signs and symptoms of Cushing disease began to resolve. Three months after surgery, multiple erythematous painful nodules developed on the patient's arms. Erythema nodosum (EN) was diagnosed...

Unmasking Abilities Hidden by Developmental Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallik, Kalisankar, Ed.; Shaver, Elaine M., Ed.

This document contains 16 papers that were scheduled to be presented at a conference (which was canceled) on approaches and programs for helping developmentally disabled persons to be more self-sufficient. The book is divided into three sections: (1) unmasking vocational abilities, (2) enhancing functional independence, and (3) medical and…

Utility of Different Electrocardiographical Leads during Diagnostic Ajmaline Test for Suspected Brugada Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Batchvarov V. N.

2009-12-01

Full Text Available In order to compare the value of different leads and lead combinations to detect the signature Brugada type ECG pattern, we analysed digital 10-second, 15-lead ECGs (12 standard leads + leads V1 to V3 from 3rd intercostal (i.c. space, V1h to V3h acquired during diagnostic Ajmaline testing in 128 patients (80 men, age 37±15 years with suspected Brugada syndrome (BS (patient group, 15-lead resting ECGs of 108 healthy subjects (53 men, age 31.9±10.5 years (control group A and standard 12-lead resting ECGs of 229 healthy subjects (111 men, age 33±4 years (control group B. Bipolar leads between V2 (positive pole and V4 or V5 (leads V2-4V2-5 were derived by subtracting leads V4 and V5 from V2 (custom-made program. The 6 peripheral, 6 right precordial leads (V1 to V3, V1h to V3h and leads V2-4 and V2-5 of the patients group, leads V1h to V3h of control group A, and leads V2-4 and V2-5 of control group B were analysed for the presence of type 1 Brugada pattern. There were 21 (16.4% positive and 107 (83.6% negative Ajmaline tests. In 7 positive tests (33%, type 1 pattern appeared only in leads V1h to V3h, whereas in 14 tests 67% it appeared in both V1 to V3 and V1h to V3h. Lead V2 displayed type 1 pattern during 10 positive tests; in all of them, plus 10 other positive tests type 1 was also noted in lead V2h (n=20, 95.2%. In all 10 cases, in which lead V2 exhibited type 1 pattern (n=10, lead V2-4 and/or V2-5 also exhibited type 1-like pattern. During 7 positive tests, in which lead V2h but not V2 exhibited type 1 pattern, lead V2-4 and/or V2-5 also demonstrated type 1 pattern. Type 1 pattern was observed in leads V3 and V3h during 1 (5% and 5 (24% positive tests, in 0 ECGs (0% in control group A and in 1 ECG (0.4% in control group B. In conclusion, the "high" V1 and V2 leads (3rd i.c. space detect more sensitively Brugada type 1 pattern than the standard V1 and V2 leads (4th i.c. space; leads V3 and V3h are not essential for the diagnosis of BS

Coexistence of Wolff-Parkinson-white and Brugada syndrome: mere curiosity?

Science.gov (United States)

Kaiser, Elisabeth; Sacilotto, Luciana; Darrieux, Francisco; Sosa, Eduardo

2014-09-01

The association between Brugada syndrome (BS) and ventricular preexcitation is a rare condition, with sporadic cases already reported. We report the case of a 29-year-old man, with palpitation unrelated to physical or emotional stress. The electrocardiogram of the first visit revealed a ventricular preexcitation pattern and an end-conduction delay, with negative T wave in V1 and intraventricular conduction disturbance in V2 (atypical for BS). The typical aspect of BS occurred after introduction of propafenone for the prevention of atrioventricular tachycardia. We discuss the recognition of this rare association, the proarrhythmic effects of some drugs, treatment options, and prognosis. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Masked and unmasked error-related potentials during continuous control and feedback

Science.gov (United States)

Lopes Dias, Catarina; Sburlea, Andreea I.; Müller-Putz, Gernot R.

2018-06-01

The detection of error-related potentials (ErrPs) in tasks with discrete feedback is well established in the brain–computer interface (BCI) field. However, the decoding of ErrPs in tasks with continuous feedback is still in its early stages. Objective. We developed a task in which subjects have continuous control of a cursor’s position by means of a joystick. The cursor’s position was shown to the participants in two different modalities of continuous feedback: normal and jittered. The jittered feedback was created to mimic the instability that could exist if participants controlled the trajectory directly with brain signals. Approach. This paper studies the electroencephalographic (EEG)—measurable signatures caused by a loss of control over the cursor’s trajectory, causing a target miss. Main results. In both feedback modalities, time-locked potentials revealed the typical frontal-central components of error-related potentials. Errors occurring during the jittered feedback (masked errors) were delayed in comparison to errors occurring during normal feedback (unmasked errors). Masked errors displayed lower peak amplitudes than unmasked errors. Time-locked classification analysis allowed a good distinction between correct and error classes (average Cohen-, average TPR  =  81.8% and average TNR  =  96.4%). Time-locked classification analysis between masked error and unmasked error classes revealed results at chance level (average Cohen-, average TPR  =  60.9% and average TNR  =  58.3%). Afterwards, we performed asynchronous detection of ErrPs, combining both masked and unmasked trials. The asynchronous detection of ErrPs in a simulated online scenario resulted in an average TNR of 84.0% and in an average TPR of 64.9%. Significance. The time-locked classification results suggest that the masked and unmasked errors were indistinguishable in terms of classification. The asynchronous classification results suggest that the

Pre- and Postoperative Binaural Unmasking for Bimodal Cochlear Implant Listeners.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield, Benjamin M; Schuchman, Gerald; Bernstein, Joshua G W

Cochlear implants (CIs) are increasingly recommended to individuals with residual bilateral acoustic hearing. Although new hearing-preserving electrode designs and surgical approaches show great promise, CI recipients are still at risk to lose acoustic hearing in the implanted ear, which could prevent the ability to take advantage of binaural unmasking to aid speech recognition in noise. This study examined the tradeoff between the benefits of a CI for speech understanding in noise and the potential loss of binaural unmasking for CI recipients with some bilateral preoperative acoustic hearing. Binaural unmasking is difficult to evaluate in CI candidates because speech perception in noise is generally too poor to measure reliably in the range of signal to noise ratios (SNRs) where binaural intelligibility level differences (BILDs) are typically observed (binaural benefit, 9 out of 10 listeners tested postoperatively had performance equal to or better than their best pre-CI performance. The listener who retained functional acoustic hearing in the implanted ear also demonstrated a preserved acoustic BILD postoperatively. Approximately half of the CI candidates in this study demonstrated preoperative binaural hearing benefits for audiovisual speech perception in noise. Most of these listeners lost their acoustic hearing in the implanted ear after surgery (using nonhearing-preservation techniques), and therefore lost access to this binaural benefit. In all but one case, any loss of binaural benefit was compensated for or exceeded by an improvement in speech perception with the CI. Evidence of a preoperative BILD suggests that certain CI candidates might further benefit from hearing-preservation surgery to retain acoustic binaural unmasking, as demonstrated for the listener who underwent hearing-preservation surgery. This test of binaural audiovisual speech perception in noise could serve as a diagnostic tool to identify CI candidates who are most likely to receive

Pacemaker implantation in a patient with brugada and sick sinus syndrome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Risgaard, Bjarke; Bundgaard, Henning; Jabbari, Reza

2013-01-01

Brugada syndrome (BrS) is a rare and inherited primary arrhythmic syndrome characterized by ST-segment elevations in the right precordial leads (V1-V3) with an increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Arrhythmias in BrS are often nocturne, and brady-arrhythmias are often seen in patients...... (ICD) after aborted SCD. A mutation screening revealed a SCN5A [S231CfsX251 (c.692-693delCA)] loss-of-function mutation not previously reported, and as a part of the cascade screening in relatives she was therefore referred to our clinic. In the 7 year period after PM implantation she had experienced...

A Novel SCN5A Mutation in a Patient with Coexistence of Brugada Syndrome Traits and Ischaemic Heart Disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holst, Anders G; Calloe, Kirstine; Jespersen, Thomas

2009-01-01

Brugada syndrome (BrS) is a primary electrical heart disease, which can lead to sudden cardiac death. In older patients with BrS, the disease may coexist with ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and recent studies support a synergistic proarrhythmic effect of the two disease entities. We report a case...

Late-onset urea cycle disorder in adulthood unmasked by severe malnutrition.

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, Diana L; Thomas, Jillian B; Sacks, Gordon S; Zouhary, L Anna

2014-01-01

Urea cycle disorders (UCDs) most often involve inherited deficiencies in genes that code for enzymes normally used by the urea cycle to breakdown nitrogen. UCDs lead to serious metabolic complications, including severe neurologic decompensation related to hyperammonemia. Although the majority of UCDs are revealed soon after birth, stressful events in adulthood can lead to unmasking of a partial, late-onset UCDs. In this report, we describe a late-onset UCD unmasked by severe malnutrition. Early, specialized nutrition therapy is a fundamental aspect of treating hyperammonemic crises in patients with UCD. The case presented here demonstrates the importance of early recognition of UCD and appropriate interventions with nutrition support. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Brugada syndrome: report of the second consensus conference: endorsed by the Heart Rhythm Society and the European Heart Rhythm Association

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Antzelevitch, Charles; Brugada, Pedro; Borggrefe, Martin; Brugada, Josep; Brugada, Ramon; Corrado, Domenico; Gussak, Ihor; LeMarec, Herve; Nademanee, Koonlawee; Perez Riera, Andres Ricardo; Shimizu, Wataru; Schulze-Bahr, Eric; Tan, Hanno; Wilde, Arthur

2005-01-01

Since its introduction as a clinical entity in 1992, the Brugada syndrome has progressed from being a rare disease to one that is second only to automobile accidents as a cause of death among young adults in some countries. Electrocardiographically characterized by a distinct ST-segment elevation in

Masked and unmasked priming effects as a function of semantic relatedness and associative strength.

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez-Casas, Rosa; Ferré, Pilar; Demestre, Josep; García-Chico, Teófilo; García-Albea, José E

2012-11-01

The study presented in this paper aimed to investigate the pattern of semantic priming effects, under masked and unmasked conditions, in the lexical decision task, manipulating type of semantic relation and associative strength. Three different kinds of word relations were examined in two experiments: only-semantically related words [e.g., codo (elbow)-rodilla (knee)] and semantic/associative related words with strong [e.g., mesa (table)-silla (chair) and weak association strength [e.g., sapo (toad)-rana (frog)]. In Experiment 1 a masked priming procedure was used with a prime duration of 56 ms, and in Experiment 2, the prime was presented unmasked for 150 ms. The results showed that there were masked priming effects with strong associates, but no evidence of these effects was found with weak associates or only-semantic related word pairs. When the prime was presented unmasked, the three types of relations produced significant priming effects and they were not influenced by association strength.

Numerous Brugada syndrome-associated genetic variants have no effect on J-point elevation, syncope susceptibility, malignant cardiac arrhythmia, and all-cause mortality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ghouse, Jonas; Have, Christian T; Skov, Morten W

2017-01-01

PURPOSE: We investigated whether Brugada syndrome (BrS)-associated variants identified in the general population have an effect on J-point elevation as well as whether carriers of BrS variants were more prone to experience syncope and malignant ventricular arrhythmia and had increased mortality c...

Functional effects of KCNE3 mutation and its role in the development of Brugada syndrome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Delpón, Eva; Cordeiro, Jonathan M; Núñez, Lucía

2008-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The Brugada Syndrome (BrS), an inherited syndrome associated with a high incidence of sudden cardiac arrest, has been linked to mutations in four different genes leading to a loss of function in sodium and calcium channel activity. Although the transient outward current (I......(to)) is thought to play a prominent role in the expression of the syndrome, mutations in I(to)-related genes have not been identified as yet. METHODS AND RESULTS: One hundred and five probands with BrS were screened for ion channel gene mutations using single strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP...

A danger of induction of Brugada syndrome during pill-in-the-pocket therapy for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoshiyasu Aizawa

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Yoshiyasu Aizawa, Tomohiro Matsuhashi, Toshiaki Sato, Seiji Takatsuki, Keiichi FukudaDivision of Cardiology, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, JapanAbstract: Rhythm control therapy by sodium channel blockers is widely performed for the ­treatment of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. Here, we present a case of acquired Brugada ­syndrome by pill-in-the-pocket treatment using pilsicainide. It is important that this therapy should be applied only after confirming the drug safety to the patients.Keywords: syncope, sudden death, drug, rhythm control, pilsicainide, atrial flutter

Massive Electrical Storm at Disease Onset in a Patient with Brugada Syndrome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pallisgaard, Jannik L; Gang, Uffe; Kanters, Jørgen K.

2014-01-01

Background Brugada syndrome (BrS) is a genetic arrhythmogenic disease characterized by ST-segment elevations in the right precordial leads of the electrocardiogram (ECG). These ECG changes may be concealed and BrS may present with electrical storm characterized by recurrent ventricular tachycardia...... and fibrillation. Case Report A 49-year-old previously healthy man was admitted with electrical storm. The patient received direct current (DC) cardioversion shocks and only after intravenous lidocaine did the electrical storm slowly subside with a total of 255 DC shocks administered during the first 24 h after...... admission. He fully recovered and received an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. Subsequent drug challenge with flecainide revealed type 1 BrS. Conclusions Massive electrical storm can be the first symptom of BrS and the diagnostic ECG changes may be concealed at presentation. Although hundreds of DC...

Massive electrical storm at disease onset in a patient with Brugada syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Pallisgaard, Jannik L; Gang, Uffe; Kanters, Jørgen K; Hansen, Peter R

2014-12-16

Brugada syndrome (BrS) is a genetic arrhythmogenic disease characterized by ST-segment elevations in the right precordial leads of the electrocardiogram (ECG). These ECG changes may be concealed and BrS may present with electrical storm characterized by recurrent ventricular tachycardia and fibrillation. A 49-year-old previously healthy man was admitted with electrical storm. The patient received direct current (DC) cardioversion shocks and only after intravenous lidocaine did the electrical storm slowly subside with a total of 255 DC shocks administered during the first 24 h after admission. He fully recovered and received an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. Subsequent drug challenge with flecainide revealed type 1 BrS. Massive electrical storm can be the first symptom of BrS and the diagnostic ECG changes may be concealed at presentation. Although hundreds of DC shocks may be required during initial treatment, full recovery can be achieved.

C-Reactive Protein Levels in the Brugada Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aimé Bonny

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Inflammation in the Brugada syndrome (BrS and its clinical implication have been little studied. Aims. To assess the level of inflammation in BrS patients. Methods. All studied BrS patients underwent blood samples drawn for C-reactive protein (CRP levels at admission, prior to any invasive intervention. Patients with a previous ICD placement were controlled to exclude those with a recent (<14 days shock. We divided subjects into symptomatic (syncope or aborted sudden death and asymptomatic groups. In a multivariable analysis, we adjusted for significant variables (age, CRP ≥ 2 mg/L. Results. Fifty-four subjects were studied (mean age 45 ± 13 years, 49 (91% male. Twenty (37% were symptomatic. Baseline characteristics were similar in both groups. Mean CRP level was 1,4 ± 0,9 mg/L in asymptomatic and 2,4 ± 1,4 mg/L in symptomatic groups (P = .003. In the multivariate model, CRP concentrations ≥ 2 mg/L remained an independent marker for being symptomatic (P = .018; 95% CI: 1.3 to 19.3. Conclusion. Inflammation seems to be more active in symptomatic BrS. C-reactive protein concentrations ≥ 2 mg/L might be associated with the previous symptoms in BrS. The value of inflammation as a risk factor of arrhythmic events in BrS needs to be studied.

Anesthetic and Perioperative Management of Patients With Brugada Syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Dendramis, Gregory; Paleologo, Claudia; Sgarito, Giuseppe; Giordano, Umberto; Verlato, Roberto; Baranchuk, Adrian; Brugada, Pedro

2017-09-15

Brugada syndrome (BrS) is an arrhythmogenic disease reported to be one among the leading causes of cardiac death in subjects under the age of 40 years. In these patients, episodes of lethal arrhythmias may be induced by several factors or situations, and for this reason, management during anesthesia and surgery must provide some precautions and drugs restrictions. To date, it is difficult to formulate guidelines for anesthetic management of patients with BrS because of the absence of prospective studies, and there is not a definite recommendation for neither general nor regional anesthesia, and there are no large studies in merit. For this reason, in the anesthesia management of patients with BrS, the decision of using each drug must be made after careful consideration and always in controlled conditions, avoiding other factors that are known to have the potential to induce arrhythmias and with a close cooperation between anesthetists and cardiologists, which is essential before and after surgery. In conclusion, given the absence of large studies in literature, we want to focus on some general rules, which resulted from case series and clinical practice, to be followed during the perioperative and anesthetic management of patients with BrS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contribution of low- and high-frequency bands to binaural unmasking in hearing-impaired listeners

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Locsei, Gusztav; Dau, Torsten; Santurette, Sébastien

2017-01-01

This study investigated the contribution of interaural timing differences (ITDs) in different frequency regions to binaural unmasking (BU) of speech. Speech reception thresholds (SRTs) and binaural intelligibility level differences (BILDs) were measured in two-talker babble in 6 young normal-hear...

Binaural unmasking of multi-channel stimuli in bilateral cochlear implant users.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Deun, Lieselot; van Wieringen, Astrid; Francart, Tom; Büchner, Andreas; Lenarz, Thomas; Wouters, Jan

2011-10-01

Previous work suggests that bilateral cochlear implant users are sensitive to interaural cues if experimental speech processors are used to preserve accurate interaural information in the electrical stimulation pattern. Binaural unmasking occurs in adults and children when an interaural delay is applied to the envelope of a high-rate pulse train. Nevertheless, for speech perception, binaural unmasking benefits have not been demonstrated consistently, even with coordinated stimulation at both ears. The present study aimed at bridging the gap between basic psychophysical performance on binaural signal detection tasks on the one hand and binaural perception of speech in noise on the other hand. Therefore, binaural signal detection was expanded to multi-channel stimulation and biologically relevant interaural delays. A harmonic complex, consisting of three sinusoids (125, 250, and 375 Hz), was added to three 125-Hz-wide noise bands centered on the sinusoids. When an interaural delay of 700 μs was introduced, an average BMLD of 3 dB was established. Outcomes are promising in view of real-life benefits. Future research should investigate the generalization of the observed benefits for signal detection to speech perception in everyday listening situations and determine the importance of coordination of bilateral speech processors and accentuation of envelope cues.

General anaesthesia for insertion of an automated implantable cardioverter defibrillator in a child with Brugada and autism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shwetal Goraksha

2010-01-01

Full Text Available A 14-year-old autistic boy presented with acute gastroenteritis and hypotension. The electrocardiogram showed a ventricular fibrillation rhythm - he went into cardiorespiratory arrest and was immediately resuscitated. On investigation, the electrocardiogram showed a partial right bundle branch block with a "coved" pattern of ST elevation in leads v 1 -v 3 . A provisional diagnosis of Brugada syndrome was made, for which an automated implantable cardioverter defibrillator (AICD implantation was advised. Although the automated implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation is usually performed under sedation, because this was an autistic child, he needed general anaesthesia. We performed the procedure uneventfully under general anaesthesia and he was discharged after a short hospital stay.

Poliosis circumscripta unmasking a scalp melanoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Yeo, L; Husain, E; Rajpara, S

2015-12-01

A 28-year-old man presented with a 1-year history of a localized patch of grey hair and an underlying darkly pigmented lesion on his right occipital area. Clinical appearance revealed poliosis overlying an asymmetrical plaque with variable degrees of brown pigmentation and white discolouration. Owing to the suspicious nature of the lesion, excision with a 2 mm margin was performed. Histology revealed an invasive melanoma with extensive regression and prominent involvement of multiple hair follicles. Scalp melanoma with associated poliosis is extremely rare, and has only been reported once in the literature to date. There have been two reports in the opthalmology literature regarding eyelash poliosis associated with orbital melanoma. The pathogenesis of poliosis still remains unclear. This is the second reported case of poliosis circmscripta unmasking a scalp melanoma, and highlights the importance of being vigilant when examining patients with poliosis of the scalp. © 2014 British Association of Dermatologists.

Comparison of circadian, weekly, and seasonal variations of electrical storms and single events of ventricular fibrillation in patients with Brugada syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoshiyasu Aizawa

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In patients with Brugada syndrome (BS, VF occurred predominantly during the nocturnal period. Some patients also developed ESs. In addition to the circadian rhythm, patients showed weekly and seasonal patterns. The patients with ESs had peak episodes of VF on Saturday and in the winter and spring, while episodes of VF in patients with single VF events occurred most often on Monday with smaller seasonal variation. Except for age, there was no difference in the clinical or ECG characteristics between the patients with ESs and those with single VF episodes.

Immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome unmasking erythema nodosum leprosum: A rare case report

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geeta Kiran Arakkal

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS occurs as an acute symptomatic expression of a latent infection during the recovery of immune system in response to antiretroviral therapy in HIV patients. IRIS triggers both opportunistic and non-opportunistic infections. We report a case of IRIS in a patient with HIV, presenting as erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL, which led to unmasking of lepromatous leprosy following anti-retroviral therapy (ART.

High prevalence of genetic variants previously associated with Brugada syndrome in new exome data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Risgaard, B; Jabbari, R; Refsgaard, L

2013-01-01

More than 300 variants in 12 genes have been associated with Brugada syndrome (BrS) which has a prevalence ranging between 1:2000 and 1:100,000. Until recently, there has been little knowledge regarding the distribution of genetic variations in the general population. This problem was partly solved......, when exome data from the NHLI GO Exome Sequencing Project (ESP) was published. In this study, we aimed to report the prevalence of previously BrS-associated variants in the ESP population. We performed a search in ESP for variants previously associated with BrS. In addition, four variants in ESP were...... to a surprisingly high genotype prevalence of 1:23 (274:6258). Genotyping the four common ESP-derived variants CACNA2D1 S709N, SCN5A F2004L, CACNB2 S143F, and CACNB2 T450I in the Danish controls, we found a genotype prevalence comparable with that found in ESP. We suggest that exome data are used in research...

Alternative approach for management of an electrical storm in Brugada syndrome:Importance of primary ablation within a narrow time window

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed Karim Talib, MD, PhD

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Placement of an implantable cardioverter–defibrillator (ICD is the only powerful treatment modality for Brugada syndrome in patients presenting with ventricular fibrillation (VF. For those whose first presentation is an electrical storm, pharmacologic therapy is typically used to control VF followed by ICD implantation. We report an alternative approach whereby, before ICD implantation, emergency catheter ablation of the VF-triggering premature ventricular contraction (PVC resulted in long-term VF-free survival. The results suggest that, because VF triggers appear in a narrow time window, ablation of the culprit PVCs that initiate VF before the index PVCs subside is a reasonable alternative approach.

Follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) unmasks specific high affinity FSH-binding sites in cell-free membrane preparations of porcine granulosa cells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ford, K.A.; LaBarbera, A.R.

1988-11-01

The purpose of these studies was to determine whether changes in FSH receptors correlated with FSH-induced attenuation of FSH-responsive adenylyl cyclase in immature porcine granulosa cells. Cells were incubated with FSH (1-1000 ng/ml) for up to 24 h, treated with acidified medium (pH 3.5) to remove FSH bound to cells, and incubated with (125I)iodo-porcine FSH to quantify FSH-binding sites. FSH increased binding of FSH in a time-, temperature-, and FSH concentration-dependent manner. FSH (200 ng/ml) increased binding approximately 4-fold within 16 h. Analysis of equilibrium saturation binding data indicated that the increase in binding sites reflected a 2.3-fold increase in receptor number and a 5.4-fold increase in apparent affinity. The increase in binding did not appear to be due to 1) a decrease in receptor turnover, since the basal rate of turnover appeared to be very slow; 2) an increase in receptor synthesis, since agents that inhibit protein synthesis and glycosylation did not block the increase in binding; or 3) an increase in intracellular receptors, since agents that inhibit cytoskeletal components had no effect. Agents that increase intracellular cAMP did not affect FSH binding. The increase in binding appeared to result from unmasking of cryptic FSH-binding sites, since FSH increased binding in cell-free membrane preparations to the same extent as in cells. Unmasking of cryptic sites was hormone specific, and the sites bound FSH specifically. Unmasking of sites was reversible in a time- and temperature-dependent manner after removal of bound FSH. The similarity between the FSH dose-response relationships for unmasking of FSH-binding sites and attenuation of FSH-responsive cAMP production suggests that the two processes are functionally linked.

Asymptomatic myotonia congenita unmasked by severe hypothyroidism.

Science.gov (United States)

Passeri, Elena; Sansone, Valeria A; Verdelli, Chiara; Mendola, Marco; Corbetta, Sabrina

2014-04-01

Myotonia congenita is an inherited muscle disorder sustained by mutations in the skeletal muscle chloride channel gene CLCN1. Symptoms vary from mild to severe and generalized myotonia and worsen with cold, stressful events and hormonal fluctuations. Here we report the case of a young woman who sought medical attention because of subacute onset of diffuse and severe limb myotonia. CLCN1 gene sequencing showed a heterozygous transversion (T550M), two polymorphisms and one silent mutation. Thyroid function screening revealed severe hypothyroidism. She was placed on l-thyroxine replacement therapy which dramatically improved myotonia. We conclude that hypothyroidism unmasked a genetically determined, clinically asymptomatic chloride channelopathy. Diagnostic work-up in patients with clinically isolated myotonia should not be limited to genetic screening of non-dystrophic or dystrophic myotonias. Considering the high prevalence of hypothyroidism in females, systematic thyroid function screening by looking for additional hypothyroid symptoms and serum TSH levels measurement is mandatory in these patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flecainide provocation reveals concealed brugada syndrome in a long QT syndrome family with a novel L1786Q mutation in SCN5A

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kanters, Jørgen K.; Yuan, Lei; Hedley, Paula L

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Mutations in SCN5A can result in both long QT type 3 (LQT3) and Brugada syndrome (BrS), and a few mutations have been found to have an overlapping phenotype. Long QT syndrome is characterized by prolonged QT interval, and a prerequisite for a BrS diagnosis is ST elevation in the right...... interval. The proband presented with an aborted cardiac arrest, and his mother died suddenly and unexpectedly at the age of 65. Flecainide treatment revealed coved ST elevation in all mutation carriers. Electrophysiological investigations of the mutant in HEK293 cells indicated a reduced peak current...

Unmasking sarcoidosis following surgery for Cushing disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Diernaes, Jon E F; Bygum, Anette; Poulsen, Per L

2016-01-01

We present a patient with Cushing disease apparently suppressing sarcoidosis, which was unmasked following surgical resection of a pituitary adrenocorticotropin (ACTH)-producing microadenoma. Case report and a short review of the literature published in this area. A 46-year-old Caucasian woman presented with symptoms of hypercortisolism such as progressive weight gain, Cushingoid appearance, proximal myopathy, easy bruising, and amenorrhea. Blood testing including inferior petrosal sinus sampling uncovered an ACTH-producing microadenoma in the right aspect of the anterior pituitary gland for which the patient underwent transphenoidal resection. Maintenance corticosteroid therapy was implemented, and the signs and symptoms of Cushing disease began to resolve. Three months after surgery, multiple erythematous painful nodules developed on the patient's arms. Erythema nodosum (EN) was diagnosed clinically and a suspicion of underlying sarcoidosis was substantiated by lung imaging and elevated plasma interleukin (IL)-2 receptor. One month later, the lesions spontaneously resolved without therapy other than maintenance glucocorticoid replacement. Physicians should be aware that patients undergoing successful treatment of Cushing syndrome may have a flare-up or emergence of a corticosteroid-responsive disease.

From syncope to ICD: clinical paths of the Brugada syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Comelli

2010-09-01

Full Text Available This review summarizes the evidences in the literature on the management of the Brugada syndrome (BS, an arrhythmogenic disease caused by genetic channelopathies, predisposing to syncope and sudden cardiac death in young, apparently healthy, typically male subjects, in the third and fourth decade of their life. Sudden cardiac death (SCD is defined as natural death from cardiac causes, heralded by abrupt loss of consciousness within one hour of the onset of symptoms. It ranks among the main causes of death in the western world, with an incidence ranging from 0.36 and 1.28‰ inhabitants per year, equal to 300,000 cases a year in the USA. In the majority of the cases it is due to the onset of arrhythmia in subjects with structural cardiac diseases, especially ischemic heart disease. However, in a non-negligible percentage of the cases, about 5-10%, the SCD arises in relatively young individuals in whom cardiac anomalies cannot be detected using traditional diagnostic techniques. About 20% of these cases can be attributed to SB. In spite of the many efforts produced to identify an effective pharmacological treatment, to date the only aid to reduce the mortality rate in subjects with SB is an implantable cardio-defibrillator (ICD. Since this approach often entails complications, the efforts of the scientific community is now focused on the assessment of the arrhythmic risk. The identification of high-risk subjects is one of the chief objectives in the therapeutic decision-making process. ABSTRACT clinica e terapia emergency

Early pre-eclampsia unmasks underlying IgA nephropathy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mona Singh

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Mona Singh, Akhenaton Pappoe, Burl R DonDivision of Nephrology, University of California Davis Medical Center, Sacramento, CA, USAAbstract: Pre-eclampsia is the most ominous complication of pregnancy, and primary glomerular diseases can mimic pre-eclampsia in presentation. A patient presented at 21 weeks gestation with signs and symptoms of both pre-eclampsia and primary glomerular nephropathy. A critical clinical decision whether to continue or terminate the pregnancy was dependent on results of a renal biopsy. The biopsy noted the presence of both pre-eclampsia and immunoglobulin A (IgA nephropathy. Thus, the onset of pre-eclampsia unmasked the presence of unrecognized IgA nephropathy, and the IgA nephropathy was a risk factor for this patient developing pre-eclampsia. The results of a renal biopsy are key in distinguishing pre-eclampsia from other kidney diseases and instituting appropriate clinical management.Keywords: proteinuria, IgA nephropathy, renal biopsy, pre-eclampsia

Potential overestimation of HPV vaccine impact due to unmasking of non-vaccine types: quantification using a multi-type mathematical model.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Yoon Hong; Chapman, Ruth; Gay, Nigel; Jit, Mark

2012-05-14

Estimates of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine impact in clinical trials and modelling studies rely on DNA tests of cytology or biopsy specimens to determine the HPV type responsible for a cervical lesion. DNA of several oncogenic HPV types may be detectable in a specimen. However, only one type may be responsible for a particular cervical lesion. Misattribution of the causal HPV type for a particular abnormality may give rise to an apparent increase in disease due to non-vaccine HPV types following vaccination ("unmasking"). To investigate the existence and magnitude of unmasking, we analysed data from residual cytology and biopsy specimens in English women aged 20-64 years old using a stochastic type-specific individual-based model of HPV infection, progression and disease. The model parameters were calibrated to data on the prevalence of HPV DNA and cytological lesion of different grades, and used to assign causal HPV types to cervical lesions. The difference between the prevalence of all disease due to non-vaccine HPV types, and disease due to non-vaccine HPV types in the absence of vaccine HPV types, was then estimated. There could be an apparent maximum increase of 3-10% in long-term cervical cancer incidence due to non-vaccine HPV types following vaccination. Unmasking may be an important phenomenon in HPV post-vaccination epidemiology, in the same way that has been observed following pneumococcal conjugate vaccination. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Beneficial Effects of Isoproterenol and Quinidine in the Treatment of Ventricular Fibrillation in Brugada Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melissa Dakkak

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The use of an implantable cardiac defibrillator has been advocated as the only effective treatment for the management of ventricular fibrillation (VF in patients with Brugada Syndrome (BrS. However, this device is only useful for terminating VF. Intermittent and/or recalcitrant VF for which lifesaving cardioversion occurs is a problematic situation in this patient population. The immediate use of appropriate antiarrhythmics in the acute setting has proven to be lifesaving. Quinidine has been well established as an effective antiarrhythmic in BrS, while isoproterenol (ISP has had some recognition as well. The addition of drug therapy to prevent the induction of these arrhythmias has been shown to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with BrS. It was proven to be especially effective in the presence of early repolarization, evidenced by the reduction or normalization of the early repolarization pattern on ECG. Thus, for the prophylactic management and long term suppression of VF in BrS, further prospective studies should be performed to determine the effectiveness of quinidine and ISP in this patient population.

Addiction screening and diagnostic tools: 'Refuting' and 'unmasking' claims to legitimacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Dwyer, Robyn; Fraser, Suzanne

2015-12-01

Human practices of all kinds - substance use, gambling, sex, even eating - are increasingly being reframed through the language of addiction. This 'addicting' of contemporary society is achieved, in part, through the screening and diagnostic tools intended to identify and measure addiction. These tools are a key element in the expert knowledge-making through which realities of addiction emerge. Promoted as objective and accurate, the tools are given legitimacy through application of scientific validation techniques. In this article, we critically examine the operations of these validation techniques as applied to substance addiction tools. Framed by feminist and other scholarship that decentres the epistemological guarantees of objectivity and validity, we structure our analysis using Ian Hacking's (1999) concepts of 'refuting' (showing a thesis to be false) and 'unmasking' (undermining a thesis). Under 'refuting', we consider the methodological validation processes on their own terms, identifying contradictory claims, weak findings and inconsistent application of methodological standards. Under 'unmasking', we critically analyse validation as a concept in itself. Here we identify two fundamental problems: symptom learning and feedback effects; and circularity and assumptions of independence and objectivity. Our analysis also highlights the extra-theoretical functions and effects of the tools. Both on their own terms and when subjected to more searching analysis, then, the validity claims the tools make fail to hold up to scrutiny. In concluding, we consider some of the effects of the processes we identify. Not only do these tools make certainty where there is none, we contend, they actively participate in the creation of social objects and social groups, and in shaping affected individuals and their opportunities. In unpacking in detail the legitimacy of the tools, our aim is to open up for further scrutiny the processes by which they go about making (rather than

How electronic health records can unmask the hidden value of PAs.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogunfiditimi, Folusho; Sherry, Scott P; Foote, Monica; Christie, Sarah L; Shock, Lisa P; Cawley, James; Browne, Aaron

2017-06-01

The Fee for Value (FFV) Task Force, a subgroup of the American Academy of PAs' Research and Strategic Initiatives Commission, has examined tools and mechanisms aimed at better clarifying the volume and value of PA work and how that work contributes to improving access to high-quality care. Establishing the value of PAs has been a challenging task for many healthcare providers. Often, PA value has been defined by their clinical productivity, without any clear direction as to what constitutes value versus productivity. The objective of this article is to unmask the value of PAs through the role of electronic health records and highlight PAs' ability to produce services that are value-oriented and quantifiably productive.

Hyper-chaos encryption using convolutional masking and model free unmasking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qi Guo-Yuan; Matondo Sandra Bazebo

2014-01-01

In this paper, during the masking process the encrypted message is convolved and embedded into a Qi hyper-chaotic system characterizing a high disorder degree. The masking scheme was tested using both Qi hyper-chaos and Lorenz chaos and indicated that Qi hyper-chaos based masking can resist attacks of the filtering and power spectrum analysis, while the Lorenz based scheme fails for high amplitude data. To unmask the message at the receiving end, two methods are proposed. In the first method, a model-free synchronizer, i.e. a multivariable higher-order differential feedback controller between the transmitter and receiver is employed to de-convolve the message embedded in the receiving signal. In the second method, no synchronization is required since the message is de-convolved using the information of the estimated derivative. (general)

Investigations of the Navβ1b sodium channel subunit in human ventricle; functional characterization of the H162P Brugada Syndrome mutant

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yuan, Lei; Koivumaki, Jussi; Liang, Bo

2014-01-01

Brugada Syndrome (BrS) is a rare inherited disease which can give rise to ventricular arrhythmia and ultimately sudden cardiac death. Numerous loss-of-function mutations in the cardiac sodium channel Nav1.5 have been associated with BrS. However, few mutations in the auxiliary Navβ1-4 subunits ha...... density was reduced by 48 % (-645±151 vs - 334±71 pA/pF), V1/2 steady-state inactivation shifted by -6.7 mV (-70.3±1.5 vs. -77.0±2.8 mV), and time-dependent recovery from inactivation slowed by more than 50% as compared to co-expression with Navβ1b WT. Computer simulations revealed...

Unmasking cryptococcal meningitis immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in pregnancy induced by HIV antiretroviral therapy with postpartum paradoxical exacerbation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reuben Kiggundu

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Cryptococcosis is the most common cause of meningitis in Africa due to the high burden of HIV. Immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS is a frequent and deadly complication of cryptococcal meningitis. We report a fatal case of cryptococcal-IRIS in a pregnant woman that began after starting antiretroviral therapy (unmasking IRIS and markedly worsened postpartum after delivery (paradoxical IRIS.

A Novel SCN5A Mutation in a Patient with Coexistence of Brugada Syndrome Traits and Ischaemic Heart Disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anders G. Holst

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Brugada syndrome (BrS is a primary electrical heart disease, which can lead to sudden cardiac death. In older patients with BrS, the disease may coexist with ischaemic heart disease (IHD and recent studies support a synergistic proarrhythmic effect of the two disease entities. We report a case that illustrates this. The index patient was a middle-aged patient with BrS traits, IHD, and aborted sudden cardiac death. Mutation analysis discovered a novel mutation P468L in the NaV1.5 sodium channel. Surprisingly, voltage-clamp experiments on the wild-type and mutant NaV1.5 channels expressed in HEK cells revealed no functional effect of the mutation. In a patient like ours, the distinction between IHD and BrS as the cause of an aborted sudden cardiac death is hard to establish and mounting evidence shows that coexistence of the two may have a synergistic proarrhythmic effect.

Failure to unmask pseudonormal diastolic function by a valsalva maneuver: tricuspid insufficiency is a major factor.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Kai; Liu, Dan; Niemann, Markus; Hatle, Liv; Herrmann, Sebastian; Voelker, Wolfram; Ertl, Georg; Bijnens, Bart; Weidemann, Frank

2011-11-01

For the clinical assessment of patients with dyspnea, the inversion of the early (E) and late (A) transmitral flow during Valsalva maneuver (VM) frequently helps to distinguish pseudonormal from normal filling pattern. However, in an important number of patients, VM fails to reveal the change from dominant early mitral flow velocity toward larger late velocity. From December 2009 to October 2010, we selected consecutive patients with abnormal filling with (n=25) and without E/A inversion (n=25) during VM. Transmitral, tricuspid, and pulmonary Doppler traces were recorded and the degree of insufficiency was estimated. After evaluating all standard echocardiographic morphological, functional, and flow-related parameters, it became evident that the failure to unmask the pseudonormal filling pattern by VM was related to the degree of the tricuspid insufficiency (TI). TI was graded as mild in 24 of 25 patients in the group with E/A inversion during VM, whereas TI was graded as moderate to severe in 24 of the 25 patients with pseudonormal diastolic function without E/A inversion during VM. Our data suggest that TI is a major factor to prevent E/A inversion during a VM in patients with pseudonormal diastolic function. This probably is due to a decrease in TI resulting in an increase in forward flow rather than the expected decrease during the VM. Thus, whenever a pseudonormal diastolic filling pattern is suspected, the use of a VM is not an informative discriminator in the presence of moderate or severe TI.

Electrical storm in patients with brugada syndrome is associated with early repolarization.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaneko, Yoshiaki; Horie, Minoru; Niwano, Shinichi; Kusano, Kengo F; Takatsuki, Seiji; Kurita, Takashi; Mitsuhashi, Takeshi; Nakajima, Tadashi; Irie, Tadanobu; Hasegawa, Kanae; Noda, Takashi; Kamakura, Shiro; Aizawa, Yoshiyasu; Yasuoka, Ryobun; Torigoe, Katsumi; Suzuki, Hiroshi; Ohe, Toru; Shimizu, Akihiko; Fukuda, Keiichi; Kurabayashi, Masahiko; Aizawa, Yoshifusa

2014-12-01

Electrical storms (ESs) in patients with Brugada syndrome (BrS) are rare though potentially lethal. We studied 22 men with BrS and ES, defined as ≥3 episodes/d of ventricular fibrillation (VF) and compared their characteristics with those of 110 age-matched, control men with BrS without ES. BrS was diagnosed by a spontaneous or drug-induced type 1 pattern on the ECG in the absence of structural heart disease. Early repolarization (ER) was diagnosed by J waves, ie, >0.1 mV notches or slurs of the terminal portion of the QRS complex. The BrS ECG pattern was provoked with pilsicainide. A spontaneous type I ECG pattern, J waves, and horizontal/descending ST elevation were found, respectively, in 77%, 36%, and 88% of patients with ES, versus 28% (P<0.0001), 9% (P=0.003), and 60% (P=0.06) of controls. The J-wave amplitude was significantly higher in patients with than without ES (P=0.03). VF occurred during undisturbed sinus rhythm in 14 of 19 patients (74%), and ES were controlled by isoproterenol administration. All patients with ES received an implantable cardioverter defibrillator and over a 6.0±5.4 years follow-up, the prognosis of patients with ES was significantly worse than that of patients without ES. Bepridil was effective in preventing VF in 6 patients. A high prevalence of ER was found in a subgroup of patients with BrS associated with ES. ES appeared to be suppressed by isoproterenol or quinidine, whereas bepridil and quinidine were effective in the long-term prevention of VF in the highest-risk patients. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Prognosis after implantation of cardioverter-defibrillators in Korean patients with Brugada syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Son, Myoung Kyun; Byeon, Kyeongmin; Park, Seung-Jung; Kim, June Soo; Nam, Gi-Byoung; Choi, Kee-Joon; Kim, You-Ho; Park, Sang Weon; Kim, Young-Hoon; Park, Hyung Wook; Cho, Jeong Gwan; On, Young Keun

2014-01-01

Our study aims to analyze prognosis after implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) implantation in Korean patients with Brugada syndrome (BrS). This was a retrospective study of BrS patients implanted with an ICD at one of four centers in Korea between January 1998 and April 2012. Sixty-nine patients (68 males, 1 female) were implanted with an ICD based on aborted cardiac arrest (n=38, 55%), history of syncope (n=17, 25%), or induced ventricular tachyarrhythmia on electrophysiologic study in asymptomatic patients (n=14, 20%). A family history of sudden cardiac death and a spontaneous type 1 electrocardiography (ECG) were noted in 13 patients (19%) and 44 patients (64%), respectively. During a mean follow-up of 59±46 months, 4.6±5.5 appropriate shocks were delivered in 19 patients (28%). Fourteen patients (20%) experienced 5.2±8.0 inappropriate shocks caused by supraventricular arrhythmia, lead failure, or abnormal sensing. Six patients were admitted for cardiac causes during follow-up, but no cardiac deaths occurred. An episode of aborted cardiac arrest was a significant predictor of appropriate shock, and the composite of cardiac events in the Cox proportional hazard model [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) was 11.34 (1.31-97.94) and 4.78 (1.41-16.22), respectively]. However, a spontaneous type 1 ECG was not a predictor of cardiac events. Appropriate shock (28%) and inappropriate shock (20%) were noted during a mean follow-up of 59±46 months in Korean BrS patients implanted with an ICD. An episode of aborted cardiac arrest was the most powerful predictor of cardiac events.

Utility of the exercise electrocardiogram testing in sudden cardiac death risk stratification.

Science.gov (United States)

Refaat, Marwan M; Hotait, Mostafa; Tseng, Zian H

2014-07-01

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) remains a major public health problem. Current established criteria identifying those at risk of sudden arrhythmic death, and likely to benefit from implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs), are neither sensitive nor specific. Exercise electrocardiogram (ECG) testing was traditionally used for information concerning patients' symptoms, exercise capacity, cardiovascular function, myocardial ischemia detection, and hemodynamic responses during activity in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. We conducted a systematic review of MEDLINE on the utility of exercise ECG testing in SCD risk stratification. Exercise testing can unmask suspected primary electrical diseases in certain patients (catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia or concealed long QT syndrome) and can be effectively utilized to risk stratify patients at an increased (such as early repolarization syndrome and Brugada syndrome) or decreased risk of SCD, such as the loss of preexcitation on exercise testing in asymptomatic Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. Exercise ECG testing helps in SCD risk stratification in patients with and without arrhythmogenic hereditary syndromes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Immunohistochemical detection of VHS virus in paraffin-embedded specimens of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss); The influence of primary antibody, fixative, and antigen unmasking on method sensitivity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Evensen, O.; Olesen, Niels Jørgen

1997-01-01

performed on parallel specimens, and the virus titer (TCID50/ml) was determined. Purified nucleocapsid protein (N-protein) of the virus was incorporated in an artificial antigen substrate (polymerized bovine serum albumin), fixed as described above, and embedded in paraffin wax. Microwave unmasking...... was performed an formalin-, PLP-, and Bouin's fluid-fixed specimens. The presence of virus peptides in situ or N-protein in the artificial antigen substrates was Visualized using an immunohistochemical method based on alkaline phosphatase or peroxidase and one polyclonal and five monoclonal polypeptide......-specific antibodies. VHS virus was identified in situ in specimens with high virus titers (10(7-8) TCID50/ml) regardless of the fixative and without the need of an unmasking procedure. A pronounced masking effect was observed for the cross-linking formalin and PLP fixatives. Regardless of the primary antibodies used...

Analyses of a novel SCN5A mutation (C1850S): conduction vs. repolarization disorder hypotheses in the Brugada syndrome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petitprez, Séverine; Jespersen, Thomas; Pruvot, Etienne

2008-01-01

S SCN5A mutation. METHODS AND RESULTS: SCN5A was screened for mutations in a male patient with type-1 BrS pattern ECG. Wild-type (WT) and mutant Na(v)1.5 channels were expressed in HEK293 cells. Sodium currents (I(Na)) were analysed using the whole-cell patch-clamp technique at 37 degrees C......AIMS: Brugada syndrome (BrS) is characterized by arrhythmias leading to sudden cardiac death. BrS is caused, in part, by mutations in the SCN5A gene, which encodes the sodium channel alpha-subunit Na(v)1.5. Here, we aimed to characterize the biophysical properties and consequences of a novel Br....... The electrophysiological effects of the mutation were simulated using the Luo-Rudy model, into which the transient outward current (I(to)) was incorporated. A new mutation (C1850S) was identified in the Na(v)1.5 C-terminal domain. In HEK293 cells, mutant I(Na) density was decreased by 62% at -20 mV. Inactivation of mutant...

Unmasking of tracheomalacia following short-term mechanical ventilation in a patient of adult respiratory distress syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harihar V Hegde

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD are susceptible to airway malacia, which may be unmasked following mechanical ventilation or tracheostomy decannulation. Dynamic imaging of central airways, a non-invasive test as effective as bronchoscopy to diagnose airway malacia, has increased the recognition of this disorder. We describe a 70-year-old woman admitted with adult respiratory distress syndrome. She had cardiorespiratory arrest on admission, from which she was successfully resuscitated. She had obesity, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, recurrent ventricular tachycardia, sarcoidosis with interstitial lung disease and COPD. She received short-term (18 days mechanical ventilation with tracheostomy and developed respiratory distress following tracheostomy decannulation.

Context Effects in Forensic Entomology and Use of Sequential Unmasking in Casework.

Science.gov (United States)

Archer, Melanie S; Wallman, James F

2016-09-01

Context effects are pervasive in forensic science, and are being recognized by a growing number of disciplines as a threat to objectivity. Cognitive processes can be affected by extraneous context information, and many proactive scientists are therefore introducing context-minimizing systems into their laboratories. Forensic entomologists are also subject to context effects, both in the processes they undertake (e.g., evidence collection) and decisions they make (e.g., whether an invertebrate taxon is found in a certain geographic area). We stratify the risk of bias into low, medium, and high for the decisions and processes undertaken by forensic entomologists, and propose that knowledge of the time the deceased was last seen alive is the most potentially biasing piece of information for forensic entomologists. Sequential unmasking is identified as the best system for minimizing context information, illustrated with the results of a casework trial (n = 19) using this approach in Victoria, Australia. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Exercise haemodynamics may unmask the diagnosis of diastolic dysfunction among patients with pulmonary hypertension.

Science.gov (United States)

Maor, Elad; Grossman, Yoni; Balmor, Ronen Gingy; Segel, Michael; Fefer, Paul; Ben-Zekry, Sagit; Buber, Jonathan; DiSegni, Elio; Guetta, Victor; Ben-Dov, Issahar; Segev, Amit

2015-02-01

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction can lead to pulmonary hypertension. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the role of exercise during right heart catheterization in the unmasking of diastolic dysfunction. Between 2004 and 2012, 200 symptomatic patients with exertional dyspnoea, preserved left ventricular systolic function and suspected pulmonary hypertension, underwent right heart catheterization. Included in the study were 63 patients with resting pulmonary arterial wedge pressure (PAWP) ≤15 mmHg. Patients were divided to three tertiles based on their peak exercise PAWP. Mean age was 60 ± 20 years and 29% were males. Mean pulmonary arterial pressure was 31 ± 14 mmHg at rest and 42 ± 18 mmHg upon exercise. Mean change in PAWP between rest and exercise was 0.0 ± 4.3, 4.6 ± 2.4, and 16.6 ± 7.1 mmHg in the lower, middle, and upper tertiles, respectively (P exercise PAWP tertiles were associated with reduced pulmonary vascular resistance (8.3 ± 6.7, 2.9 ± 2.7, and 5.8 ± 4.6 Woods units, respectively; P = 0.004). A multivariate linear regression model demonstrated that each 5 kg/m(2) increase in body mass index was associated with 2.5 ± 1.0 mmHg increase in exercise PAWP (P = 0.017). A multivariate binary logistic model showed that subjects with borderline PAWP at rest (12-15 mmHg) were 4.5 times more likely to be in the upper tertile of exercise PAWP (P = 0.011). In symptomatic patients with pulmonary hypertension, preserved left ventricular ejection fraction and PAWP ≤15 mmHg, exercise during right heart catheterization may unmask diastolic dysfunction. This is especially true for obese patients and patients with borderline resting PAWP. © 2014 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2014 European Society of Cardiology.

Overlap of Post-obstructive Diuresis and Unmasked Diabetes Insipidus in a Case of IgG4-related Retroperitoneal Fibrosis and Tuberoinfundibular Hypophysitis: A Case Report and Review of the Literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Sasaki Yatabe, Midori; Watanabe, Kimio; Hayashi, Yoshimitsu; Yatabe, Junichi; Morimoto, Satoshi; Ichihara, Atsuhiro; Nakayama, Masaaki; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi

The clinical picture of IgG4-related disease (IgG4-RD) is diverse because various organs can be affected. We describe the case of a 56-year-old man with acute renal failure and tuberoinfundibular hypophysitis due to IgG4-RD. Steroid therapy lowered the serum IgG4 level and ameliorated renal dysfunction, bilateral hydronephrosis and retroperitoneal fibrosis. However, polyuria from post-obstructive diuresis and unmasked central diabetes insipidus ensued. The patient's polyuria continued despite the administration of a therapeutic dose of glucocorticoid; the patient's pituitary swelling and anterior pituitary dysfunction were partially ameliorated. The pituitary swelling recurred seven months later. In patients with IgG4-RD, the manifestation of polyuria after steroid therapy should prompt suspicion of post-obstructive diuresis and the unmasking of central diabetes insipidus.

Differential diagnosis between early repolarization of athlete's heart and coved-type Brugada electrocardiogram.

Science.gov (United States)

Zorzi, Alessandro; Leoni, Loira; Di Paolo, Fernando M; Rigato, Ilaria; Migliore, Federico; Bauce, Barbara; Pelliccia, Antonio; Corrado, Domenico

2015-02-15

Early repolarization (ER) is typically observed in highly trained athletes as a physiologic consequence of increased vagal tone. The variant of anterior (V1 to V3) ER characterized by "domed" ST-segment elevation and negative T wave raises problems of differential diagnosis with the "coved-type" electrocardiographic pattern seen in Brugada syndrome (BS). This study was designed to identify electrocardiographic criteria for distinguishing athlete's ER from BS. The study compared the electrocardiographic tracings of 61 healthy athletes (80% men, median age 23 ± 8 years), showing "domed" ST-segment elevation and negative T wave in leads V1 to V3, with those of 92 consecutive age- and sex-matched BS patients with a "coved-type" electrocardiographic pattern. The electrocardiographic analysis focused on the ST-segment elevation at J point (STJ) and at 80 milliseconds after J point (ST₈₀). Athletes had a lower maximum amplitude of STJ (1.46 ± 0.7 vs 3.25 ± 0.6 mm, p 1) versus only 2 (3%) athletes (p <0.001). An upsloping ST-segment configuration (STJ/ST₈₀ <1) showed a sensitivity of 97%, a specificity of 100%, and a diagnostic accuracy of 98.7% for the diagnosis of ER. At multivariate analysis, STJ/ST₈₀ ratio remained the only independent predictor for ER (odds ratio 87, 95% confidence interval 19 to 357, p <0.001). In conclusion, the STJ/ST₈₀ ratio is a highly accurate electrocardiographic parameter for differential diagnosis between anterior ER of the athlete and BS. Our results may help in reducing the number of athletes who undergo expensive diagnostic workup or are unnecessarily disqualified from competition for changes that fall within the normal range of athlete's heart. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long QT syndrome unmasked in an adult subject presenting with excited delirium.

Science.gov (United States)

Bozeman, William P; Ali, Karim; Winslow, James E

2013-02-01

Excited delirium is increasingly recognized as a risk factor for sudden death, though the specific pathophysiology of these deaths is typically unclear. We describe a survivor of excited delirium that displayed a transient severe prolongation of the QT interval, suggesting unmasking of long QT syndrome as a possible mechanism of sudden death. A 30-year-old man was arrested by police for violent assaultive behavior. Officers at the scene noted confusion, nonsensical speech, sweating, and bizarre agitated behavior; he was transported to the Emergency Department for medical evaluation of possible excited delirium. His initial electrocardiogram revealed a markedly prolonged corrected QT interval of over 600 ms. Intravenous hydration and sodium bicarbonate were administered, with normalization of the QT; he was admitted and recovered uneventfully. We discuss the possible association between long QT syndrome and unexplained sudden deaths seen with excited delirium. Sodium bicarbonate may be considered when long QT syndrome is identified during or after agitated delirium, though its routine use cannot be recommended based on a case report. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a Single High Fat Meal Challenge to Unmask ...

Science.gov (United States)

Stress tests are used clinically to determine the presence of underlying disease and predict future cardiovascular risk. In previous studies, we used treadmill exercise stress in rats to unmask the priming effects of air pollution inhalation. Other day-to-day activities stress the cardiovascular system, and when modeled experimentally, may be useful in identifying latent effects of air pollution exposure. For example, a single high fat (HF) meal can cause transient vascular endothelial dysfunction and increases in LDL cholesterol, triglycerides (TG), oxidative stress, and inflammation. Given the prevalence of HF meals in western diets, the goal of this study was to develop a HF meal challenge in rats to see if air pollution primes the body for a subsequent stress-induced adverse response. Healthy male Wistar Kyoto rats were fasted for six hours and then administered a single oral gavage of isocaloric lard-based HF or low fat (LF) suspensions, or a water vehicle control. We hypothesized that rats given a HF load would elicit postprandial changes in cardiopulmonary function that were distinct from LF and vehicle controls. One to four hours after gavage, rats underwent whole body plethysmography to assess breathing patterns, cardiovascular ultrasounds, blood draws for measurements of systemic lipids and hormones and a test for sensitivity to aconitine-induced arrhythmia. HF gavage caused an increase in circulating TG relative to LF and vehicle controls and an incre

Cohort of Patients Referred for Brugada Syndrome Investigation in an Electrophysiology Service - 19-Year Registry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Warpechowski Neto

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background: Brugada syndrome (SBr is an arrhythmic condition characterized by ST-T segment abnormalities in the right precordial leads associated with a high risk of ventricular arrhythmias and sudden death. Local data regarding the clinical characteristics of patients with a typical electrocardiographic (ECG pattern undergoing electrophysiological study are scarce. Objective: To evaluate patients with an ECG pattern suggestive of SBr referred for electrophysiological evaluation in a specialized center. Methods: Cohort study of patients referred for electrophysiological study because of an ECG pattern compatible with SBr between January 1998 and March 2017. Results: Of the 5506 procedures, 35 (0.64% were for SBr investigation, 25 of which (71.42% were performed in men. The mean age was 43.89 ± 13.1 years. The ECG patterns were as follows: type I, 22 (62.85%; type II, 12 (34.30%; and type III, 1 (2.85%. Twenty-three patients (65.7% were asymptomatic, 6 (17.14% had palpitations, 5 (14.3% had syncope, and 3 (8.6% had a family history of sudden death. Electrophysiological study induced ventricular tachyarrhythmias in 16 cases (45.7%, the mean ventricular refractory period being 228 ± 36 ms. Ajmaline / procainamide was used in 11 cases (31.4%, changing the ECG pattern to type I in 7 (63.6%. Sixteen cases (45.7% received an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD. In a mean 5-year follow-up, 1 of the 16 patients (6.25% with ICD had appropriate therapy for ventricular fibrillation. There was no death. Other arrhythmias occurred in 4 (11.4% cases. Conclusions: Most patients are men, and a type I ECG pattern is the main indication for electrophysiological study. Class IA drugs have a high ECG conversion rate. The ICD event rate was 6%. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2018; [online].ahead print, PP.0-0

Electrophysiological characteristics of a SCN5A voltage sensors mutation R1629Q associated with Brugada syndrome.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhipeng Zeng

Full Text Available Brugada syndrome (BrS is an inherited arrhythmogenic syndrome leading to sudden cardiac death, partially associated with autosomal dominant mutations in SCN5A, which encodes the cardiac sodium channel alpha-subunit (Nav1.5. To date some SCN5A mutations related with BrS have been identified in voltage sensor of Nav1.5. Here, we describe a dominant missense mutation (R1629Q localized in the fourth segment of domain IV region (DIV-S4 in a Chinese Han family. The mutation was identified by direct sequencing of SCN5A from the proband's DNA. Co-expression of Wild-type (WT or R1629Q Nav1.5 channel and hβ1 subunit were achieved in human embryonic kidney cells by transient transfection. Sodium currents were recorded using whole cell patch-clamp protocols. No significant changes between WT and R1629Q currents were observed in current density or steady-state activation. However, hyperpolarized shift of steady-state inactivation curve was identified in cells expressing R1629Q channel (WT: V1/2 = -81.1 ± 1.3 mV, n = 13; R1629Q: V1/2 = -101.7 ± 1.2 mV, n = 18. Moreover, R1629Q channel showed enhanced intermediate inactivation and prolonged recovery time from inactivation. In summary, this study reveals that R1629Q mutation causes a distinct loss-of-function of the channel due to alter its electrophysiological characteristics, and facilitates our understanding of biophysical mechanisms of BrS.

Brain response to masked and unmasked facial emotions as a function of implicit and explicit personality self-concept of extraversion.

Science.gov (United States)

Suslow, Thomas; Kugel, Harald; Lindner, Christian; Dannlowski, Udo; Egloff, Boris

2017-01-06

Extraversion-introversion is a personality dimension referring to individual differences in social behavior. In the past, neurobiological research on extraversion was almost entirely based upon questionnaires which inform about the explicit self-concept. Today, indirect measures are available that tap into the implicit self-concept of extraversion which is assumed to result from automatic processing functions. In our study, brain activation while viewing facial expression of affiliation relevant (i.e., happiness, and disgust) and irrelevant (i.e., fear) emotions was examined as a function of the implicit and explicit self-concept of extraversion and processing mode (automatic vs. controlled). 40 healthy volunteers watched blocks of masked and unmasked emotional faces while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging. The Implicit Association Test and the NEO Five-Factor Inventory were applied as implicit and explicit measures of extraversion which were uncorrelated in our sample. Implicit extraversion was found to be positively associated with neural response to masked happy faces in the thalamus and temporo-parietal regions and to masked disgust faces in cerebellar areas. Moreover, it was positively correlated with brain response to unmasked disgust faces in the amygdala and cortical areas. Explicit extraversion was not related to brain response to facial emotions when controlling trait anxiety. The implicit compared to the explicit self-concept of extraversion seems to be more strongly associated with brain activation not only during automatic but also during controlled processing of affiliation relevant facial emotions. Enhanced neural response to facial disgust could reflect high sensitivity to signals of interpersonal rejection in extraverts (i.e., individuals with affiliative tendencies). Copyright © 2016 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Interdependence of Long- and Short-Term Components in Unmasked Repetition Priming: An Indication of Shared Resources.

Science.gov (United States)

Merema, Matt R; Speelman, Craig P

2015-01-01

It has been suggested that unmasked repetition priming is composed of distinct long-and short-term priming components. The current study sought to clarify the relationship between these components by examining the relationship between them. A total of 60 people (45 females, 15 males) participated in a computer-based lexical decision task designed to measure levels of short-term priming across different levels of long-term priming. The results revealed an interdependent relationship between the two components, whereby an increase in long-term priming prompted a decrease in short-term priming. Both long-term and short-term priming were accurately captured by a single power function over seven minutes post repetition, suggesting the two components may draw on the same resources. This interdependence between long- and short-term priming may serve to improve fluency in reading.

The Interdependence of Long- and Short-Term Components in Unmasked Repetition Priming: An Indication of Shared Resources.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matt R Merema

Full Text Available It has been suggested that unmasked repetition priming is composed of distinct long-and short-term priming components. The current study sought to clarify the relationship between these components by examining the relationship between them. A total of 60 people (45 females, 15 males participated in a computer-based lexical decision task designed to measure levels of short-term priming across different levels of long-term priming. The results revealed an interdependent relationship between the two components, whereby an increase in long-term priming prompted a decrease in short-term priming. Both long-term and short-term priming were accurately captured by a single power function over seven minutes post repetition, suggesting the two components may draw on the same resources. This interdependence between long- and short-term priming may serve to improve fluency in reading.

Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

2004-01-01

We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

2017-03-01

Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

OpenAIRE

Saad, Emad

2013-01-01

Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2013-01-01

Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

Unmasking of Partial Diabetes Insipidus during Stress but Not Maintenance Dosing of Glucocorticoids in an Infant with Septo-Optic Dysplasia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Loechner KarenJ

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Background. It is well acknowledged that glucocorticoid (GC replacement can unmask diabetes insipidus (DI in subjects with hypopituitarism. Objective. To increase the awareness and monitoring for transient and symptomatic DI in children with partial hypopituitarism during periods in which increased GC needs are required. Methods/Case. A 2-month-old female infant with septo-optic dysplasia (SOD; on thyroid and maintenance GC replacement therapy at 8 mg/m2/day developed transient DI during 2 separate episodes of stress (one hypothermia, one febrile when stress dosing of GC (25 mg/m2/day was instituted. Conclusion. Children not diagnosed with DI during initial evaluation for hypopituitarism may benefit from rescreening of serum sodium levels during acute periods of stress that demand "stress" GC dosing. This will permit treatment and/or increased vigilance for ensuing permanent DI.

Probability

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, A N

1996-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables

Processing of masked and unmasked emotional faces under different attentional conditions: an electrophysiological investigation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marzia eDel Zotto

2015-10-01

Full Text Available In order to investigate the interactions between non-spatial selective attention, awareness and emotion processing, we carried out an ERP study using a backward masking paradigm, in which angry, fearful, happy and neutral facial expressions were presented, while participants attempted to detect the presence of one or the other category of facial expressions in the different experimental blocks. ERP results showed that negative emotions enhanced an early N170 response over temporal-occipital leads in both masked and unmasked conditions, independently of selective attention. A later effect arising at the P2 was linked to awareness. Finally, selective attention was found to affect the N2 and N3 components over occipito-parietal leads. Our findings reveal that i the initial processing of facial expressions arises prior to attention and awareness; ii attention and awareness give rise to temporally distinct periods of activation independently of the type of emotion with only a partial degree of overlap; and iii selective attention appears to be influenced by the emotional nature of the stimuli, which in turn impinges on unconscious processing at a very early stage. This study confirms previous reports that negative facial expressions can be processed rapidly, in absence of visual awareness and independently of selective attention. On the other hand, attention and awareness may operate in a synergistic way, depending on task demand.

Scaling Qualitative Probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2017-01-01

There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassinelli, G.

1979-01-01

The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)

Metoclopramide unmasks potentially misleading contralateral suppression in patients undergoing adrenal vein sampling for primary aldosteronism.

Science.gov (United States)

Rossitto, Giacomo; Miotto, Diego; Battistel, Michele; Barbiero, Giulio; Maiolino, Giuseppe; Bisogni, Valeria; Sanga, Viola; Rossi, Gian Paolo

2016-11-01

As metoclopramide stimulates aldosterone secretion, we tested its usefulness in the assessment of lateralization of primary aldosteronism by adrenal vein sampling (AVS). Prospective within-patient study in consecutive patients undergoing AVS for primary aldosteronism subtyping. We compared the diagnostic accuracy of baseline and postmetoclopramide lateralization index and relative (to cortisol) aldosterone secretion indices (RASI) for each adrenal gland with aldosterone-producing adenoma (APA) determined by the four corners criteria as the reference diagnosis. We recruited 93 consecutive patients (mean age: 52 years; women 31%). Metoclopramide increased plasma aldosterone in the inferior vena cava and in both adrenal veins. The postmetoclopramide lateralization index was accurate in identifying APA, but did not increase diagnostic accuracy over baseline lateralization index, because the RASI increased similarly in both sides. Conversely, metoclopramide raised RASI to values more than 0.90 bilaterally in non-APA patients allowing accurate identification of factitious aldosterone suppression. In contrast, RASI was 0.90 or less in 48% contralateral to the tumor in APA patients. Regression analysis showed the APA patients with persistent suppression of RASI contralaterally showed a more florid primary aldosteronism phenotype. Metoclopramide does not enhance lateralization of aldosterone excess in APA, but consistently increased the value of RASI in non-APA cases, thus unmasking potentially misleading suppression of aldosterone. Postmetoclopramide RASI may therefore allow a more precise diagnosis when AVS can be achieved only unilaterally.

Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

2004-01-01

Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

Using sound to unmask losses disguised as wins in multiline slot machines.

Science.gov (United States)

Dixon, Mike J; Collins, Karen; Harrigan, Kevin A; Graydon, Candice; Fugelsang, Jonathan A

2015-03-01

Losses disguised as wins (LDWs) are slot machine outcomes where participants bet on multiple lines and win back less than their wager. Despite losing money, the machine celebrates these outcomes with reinforcing sights and sounds. Here, we sought to show that psychophysically and psychologically, participants treat LDWs as wins, but that we could expose LDWs as losses by using negative sounds as feedback. 157 participants were allocated into one of three conditions: a standard sound condition where LDWs, despite being losses, are paired with winning sights and sounds; a silent condition, where LDWs are paired with silence; and a negative sound condition where LDWs and regular losses are both followed by a negative sound. After viewing a paytable, participants conducted 300 spins on a slot machine simulator while heart rate deceleration (HRD) and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were monitored. Participants were then shown 20 different spin outcomes including LDWs and asked whether they had won or lost on that outcome. Participants then estimated on how many spins (out of 300) they won more than they wagered. SCRs were similar for losses and LDWs (both smaller than actual wins). HRD, however, was steeper for both wins and LDWs, compared to losses. In the standard condition, a majority of participants (mis)categorized LDWs as wins, and significantly overestimated the number of times they actually won. In the negative sound condition, this pattern was reversed; most participants correctly categorized LDWs as losses, and they gave high-fidelity win estimates. We conclude that participants both think and physiologically react to LDWs as though they are wins, a miscategorization that misleads them to think that they are winning more often than they actually are. Sound can be used to effectively prevent this misconception and unmask the disguise of LDWs.

COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.

1979-01-01

1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions

On Probability Leakage

OpenAIRE

Briggs, William M.

2012-01-01

The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vourdas, A.

2014-01-01

The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H 1 ,H 2 ), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H 1 ),P(H 2 ), to the subspaces H 1 , H 2 . As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Science.gov (United States)

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Goldberg, Samuel

1960-01-01

Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

Probability 1/e

Science.gov (United States)

Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

2011-01-01

Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

Unmasking of complements using proteinase-K in formalin fixed paraffin embedded renal biopsies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R Nada

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Renal biopsy interpretation requires histopathology, direct immunofluorescence (DIF and electron microscopy. Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue (FFPE sent for light microscopy can be used for DIF after antigen retrieval. However, complement staining has not been satisfactory. We standardized DIF using proteinase-K for antigen retrieval in FFPE renal biopsies. A pilot study was conducted on known cases of membranous glomerulonephritis (MGN, membranoproliferative type-1 (MPGN-1, immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN, and anti-glomerular basement disease (anti-GBM. Immunofluorescence panel included fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC conjugated IgG, IgA, IgM, complements (C3 and C1q, light chains (kappa, lambda and fibrinogen antibodies. After standardization of the technique, 75 renal biopsies and 43 autopsies cases were stained. Out of 43 autopsy cases, immune-complex mediated glomerulonephritis (GN was confirmed in 18 cases (Lupus nephritis-11, IgAN-6, MGN-1, complement-mediated dense deposit disease (DDD-1 and monoclonal diseases in 4 cases (amyloidosis-3, cast nephropathy-1. Immune-mediated injury was excluded in 17 cases (focal segmental glomerulosclerosis -3, crescentic GN-6 [pauci-immune-3, anti-GBM-3], thrombotic microangiopathy-5, atherosclerosis-3. Renal biopsies (n-75 where inadequate or no frozen sample was available; this technique classified 52 mesangiocapillary pattern as MPGN type-1-46, DDD-2 and (C3GN-4. Others were diagnosed as IgAN-3, lupus nephritis-2, MGN-4, diffuse proliferative glomerulonephritis (DPGN-1, Non-IC crescentic GN-1, monoclonal diseases-3. In nine cases, DIF on FFPE tissue could not help in making diagnosis. Proteinase-K enzymatic digestion of FFPE renal biopsies can unmask complements (both C3 and C1q in immune-complexes mediated and complement-mediated diseases. This method showed good results on autopsy tissues archived for as long as 15 years.

Foundations of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraassen, B.C. van

1979-01-01

The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)

Non-Archimedean Probability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

Handbook of probability

CERN Document Server

Florescu, Ionut

2013-01-01

THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

Probability-1

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, Albert N

2016-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

Science.gov (United States)

Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

2011-01-01

Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

Ancient Artifacts vs. Digital Artifacts: New Tools for Unmasking the Sale of Illicit Antiquities on the Dark Web

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katie A. Paul

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Since the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS, also known as Daesh and ISIL in 2014, antiquities have been a widely publicized source of funding for what has become one of the most technologically savvy terrorist organizations of the modern era. The globalization of technology and rise of popularity in cryptocurrencies has changed the face of black-market trade and the actors that carry out these crimes. While art and antiquities have long served as a market with susceptibilities to laundering, the emergence of Dark Web markets, identification-masking software, and untraceable cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have opened new doors to potential vulnerabilities. The anonymity that is offered by these technologies acts as a roadblock for authorities, while attracting the likes of terrorists and transnational criminals. Investigative research using cyber security platforms to identify digital artifacts connected to potential traffickers provides the opportunity to unmask the seemingly untraceable actors behind these activities. The evidence of illicit antiquities trafficking on the Dark Web displayed in this article can generate a new discussion on how and where to study black-market antiquities to gain needed insight into combating the illicit trade online and the transnational criminal groups it may finance.

Modeling Sluggishness in Binaural Unmasking of Speech for Maskers With Time-Varying Interaural Phase Differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Hauth, Christopher F; Brand, Thomas

2018-01-01

In studies investigating binaural processing in human listeners, relatively long and task-dependent time constants of a binaural window ranging from 10 ms to 250 ms have been observed. Such time constants are often thought to reflect "binaural sluggishness." In this study, the effect of binaural sluggishness on binaural unmasking of speech in stationary speech-shaped noise is investigated in 10 listeners with normal hearing. In order to design a masking signal with temporally varying binaural cues, the interaural phase difference of the noise was modulated sinusoidally with frequencies ranging from 0.25 Hz to 64 Hz. The lowest, that is the best, speech reception thresholds (SRTs) were observed for the lowest modulation frequency. SRTs increased with increasing modulation frequency up to 4 Hz. For higher modulation frequencies, SRTs remained constant in the range of 1 dB to 1.5 dB below the SRT determined in the diotic situation. The outcome of the experiment was simulated using a short-term binaural speech intelligibility model, which combines an equalization-cancellation (EC) model with the speech intelligibility index. This model segments the incoming signal into 23.2-ms time frames in order to predict release from masking in modulated noises. In order to predict the results from this study, the model required a further time constant applied to the EC mechanism representing binaural sluggishness. The best agreement with perceptual data was achieved using a temporal window of 200 ms in the EC mechanism.

Janus-faced probability

CERN Document Server

Rocchi, Paolo

2014-01-01

The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

Ruin probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

Interpretations of probability

CERN Document Server

Khrennikov, Andrei

2009-01-01

This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

OpenAIRE

Melucci, Massimo

2011-01-01

The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

Epidural Analgesia with Ropivacaine during Labour in a Patient with a SCN5A Gene Mutation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. L. M. J. van der Knijff-van Dortmont

2016-01-01

Full Text Available SCN5A gene mutations can lead to ion channel defects which can cause cardiac conduction disturbances. In the presence of specific ECG characteristics, this mutation is called Brugada syndrome. Many drugs are associated with adverse events, making anesthesia in patients with SCN5A gene mutations or Brugada syndrome challenging. In this case report, we describe a pregnant patient with this mutation who received epidural analgesia using low dose ropivacaine and sufentanil during labour.

Calculating the Probability of Returning a Loan with Binary Probability Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julian Vasilev

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to give a new approach in calculating the probability of returning a loan. A lot of factors affect the value of the probability. In this article by using statistical and econometric models some influencing factors are proved. The main approach is concerned with applying probit and logit models in loan management institutions. A new aspect of the credit risk analysis is given. Calculating the probability of returning a loan is a difficult task. We assume that specific data fields concerning the contract (month of signing, year of signing, given sum and data fields concerning the borrower of the loan (month of birth, year of birth (age, gender, region, where he/she lives may be independent variables in a binary logistics model with a dependent variable “the probability of returning a loan”. It is proved that the month of signing a contract, the year of signing a contract, the gender and the age of the loan owner do not affect the probability of returning a loan. It is proved that the probability of returning a loan depends on the sum of contract, the remoteness of the loan owner and the month of birth. The probability of returning a loan increases with the increase of the given sum, decreases with the proximity of the customer, increases for people born in the beginning of the year and decreases for people born at the end of the year.

On the Possibility of Assigning Probabilities to Singular Cases, or: Probability Is Subjective Too!

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark R. Crovelli

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Both Ludwig von Mises and Richard von Mises claimed that numerical probability could not be legitimately applied to singular cases. This paper challenges this aspect of the von Mises brothers’ theory of probability. It is argued that their denial that numerical probability could be applied to singular cases was based solely upon Richard von Mises’ exceptionally restrictive definition of probability. This paper challenges Richard von Mises’ definition of probability by arguing that the definition of probability necessarily depends upon whether the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is argued that if the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws, a subjective definition of probability must be adopted. It is further argued that both the nature of human action and the relative frequency method for calculating numerical probabilities both presuppose that the world is indeed governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is finally argued that the subjective definition of probability undercuts the von Mises claim that numerical probability cannot legitimately be applied to singular, non-replicable cases.

Speech detection in noise and spatial unmasking in children with simultaneous versus sequential bilateral cochlear implants.

Science.gov (United States)

Chadha, Neil K; Papsin, Blake C; Jiwani, Salima; Gordon, Karen A

2011-09-01

To measure speech detection in noise performance for children with bilateral cochlear implants (BiCI), to compare performance in children with simultaneous implant versus those with sequential implant, and to compare performance to normal-hearing children. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary academic pediatric center. Children with early-onset bilateral deafness and 2-year BiCI experience, comprising the "sequential" group (>2 yr interimplantation delay, n = 12) and "simultaneous group" (no interimplantation delay, n = 10) and normal-hearing controls (n = 8). Thresholds to speech detection (at 0-degree azimuth) were measured with noise at 0-degree azimuth or ± 90-degree azimuth. Spatial unmasking (SU) as the noise condition changed from 0-degree azimuth to ± 90-degree azimuth and binaural summation advantage (BSA) of 2 over 1 CI. Speech detection in noise was significantly poorer than controls for both BiCI groups (p simultaneous group approached levels found in normal controls (7.2 ± 0.6 versus 8.6 ± 0.6 dB, p > 0.05) and was significantly better than that in the sequential group (3.9 ± 0.4 dB, p simultaneous group but, in the sequential group, was significantly better when noise was moved to the second rather than the first implanted ear (4.8 ± 0.5 versus 3.0 ± 0.4 dB, p sequential group's second rather than first CI. Children with simultaneously implanted BiCI demonstrated an advantage over children with sequential implant by using spatial cues to improve speech detection in noise.

Probability in physics

CERN Document Server

Hemmo, Meir

2012-01-01

What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

Philosophical theories of probability

CERN Document Server

Gillies, Donald

2000-01-01

The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

Probability for statisticians

CERN Document Server

Shorack, Galen R

2017-01-01

This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

A brief introduction to probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

2018-02-01

The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

Choice probability generating functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2013-01-01

This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

Probability of satellite collision

Science.gov (United States)

Mccarter, J. W.

1972-01-01

A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

Real analysis and probability

CERN Document Server

Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

1972-01-01

Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

Probability and Measure

CERN Document Server

Billingsley, Patrick

2012-01-01

Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

Experimental Probability in Elementary School

Science.gov (United States)

Andrew, Lane

2009-01-01

Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

Probabilities in physics

CERN Document Server

Hartmann, Stephan

2011-01-01

Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Grimmett, Geoffrey

2014-01-01

Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

Evaluation of nuclear power plant component failure probability and core damage probability using simplified PSA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimada, Yoshio

2000-01-01

It is anticipated that the change of frequency of surveillance tests, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of safety related components may cause the change of component failure probability and result in the change of core damage probability. It is also anticipated that the change is different depending on the initiating event frequency or the component types. This study assessed the change of core damage probability using simplified PSA model capable of calculating core damage probability in a short time period, which is developed by the US NRC to process accident sequence precursors, when various component's failure probability is changed between 0 and 1, or Japanese or American initiating event frequency data are used. As a result of the analysis, (1) It was clarified that frequency of surveillance test, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of motor driven pumps (high pressure injection pumps, residual heat removal pumps, auxiliary feedwater pumps) should be carefully changed, since the core damage probability's change is large, when the base failure probability changes toward increasing direction. (2) Core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance test frequency change, since the core damage probability change is small, when motor operated valves and turbine driven auxiliary feed water pump failure probability changes around one figure. (3) Core damage probability change is small, when Japanese failure probability data are applied to emergency diesel generator, even if failure probability changes one figure from the base value. On the other hand, when American failure probability data is applied, core damage probability increase is large, even if failure probability changes toward increasing direction. Therefore, when Japanese failure probability data is applied, core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance tests frequency change etc. (author)

Introduction to probability

CERN Document Server

Freund, John E

1993-01-01

Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

CERN Document Server

Dworsky, Lawrence N

2008-01-01

An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

Risk Probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

Adrenal Insufficiency, Sex Reversal, and Angelman Syndrome due to Uniparental Disomy Unmasking a Mutation in CYP11A1.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Ahlee; Fujimoto, Masanobu; Hwa, Vivian; Backeljauw, Philippe; Dauber, Andrew

2018-01-01

Cholesterol side-chain cleavage enzyme (P450scc) deficiency is a rare genetic disorder causing primary adrenal insufficiency with or without a 46,XY disorder of sexual development (DSD). Herein, we report a case of the combination of primary adrenal insufficiency, a DSD (testes with female external genitalia in a setting of a 47,XXY karyotype), and Angelman syndrome. Comprehensive genetic analyses were performed, including a single nucleotide polymorphism microarray and whole-exome sequencing. In vitro studies were performed to evaluate the pathogenicity of the novel mutation that was identified by whole-exome sequencing. The patient was found to have segmental uniparental disomy (UPD) of chromosome 15 explaining her diagnosis of Angelman syndrome. Whole-exome sequencing further revealed a novel homozygous intronic variant in CYP11A1, the gene encoding P450scc, found within the region of UPD. In vitro studies confirmed that this variant led to decreased efficiency of CYP11A1 splicing. We report the first case of the combination of 2 rare genetic disorders, Angelman syndrome, and P450scc deficiency. After 20 years of diagnostic efforts, significant advances in genetic diagnostic technology allowed us to determine that these 2 disorders originate from a unified genetic etiology, segmental UPD unmasking a novel recessive mutation in CYP11A1. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Quantum processes: probability fluxes, transition probabilities in unit time and vacuum vibrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oleinik, V.P.; Arepjev, Ju D.

1989-01-01

Transition probabilities in unit time and probability fluxes are compared in studying the elementary quantum processes -the decay of a bound state under the action of time-varying and constant electric fields. It is shown that the difference between these quantities may be considerable, and so the use of transition probabilities W instead of probability fluxes Π, in calculating the particle fluxes, may lead to serious errors. The quantity W represents the rate of change with time of the population of the energy levels relating partly to the real states and partly to the virtual ones, and it cannot be directly measured in experiment. The vacuum background is shown to be continuously distorted when a perturbation acts on a system. Because of this the viewpoint of an observer on the physical properties of real particles continuously varies with time. This fact is not taken into consideration in the conventional theory of quantum transitions based on using the notion of probability amplitude. As a result, the probability amplitudes lose their physical meaning. All the physical information on quantum dynamics of a system is contained in the mean values of physical quantities. The existence of considerable differences between the quantities W and Π permits one in principle to make a choice of the correct theory of quantum transitions on the basis of experimental data. (author)

Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Ballentine, Leslie E.

2016-08-01

Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

Choice Probability Generating Functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

Prediction and probability in sciences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.

1998-01-01

This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)

The quantum probability calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jauch, J.M.

1976-01-01

The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

Science.gov (United States)

Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

2018-03-01

Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

Linear positivity and virtual probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartle, James B.

2004-01-01

We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics

The pleasures of probability

CERN Document Server

Isaac, Richard

1995-01-01

The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandy, W. T. Jr.

2009-01-01

In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Taiki

2011-03-01

A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

Probability concepts in quality risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Claycamp, H Gregg

2012-01-01

Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

The perception of probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

2014-01-01

We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Introduction to probability with R

CERN Document Server

Baclawski, Kenneth

2008-01-01

FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

Applied probability and stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Sumita, Ushio

1999-01-01

Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

Collision Probability Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

1998-01-01

It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

Irreversibility and conditional probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stuart, C.I.J.M.

1989-01-01

The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)

Introduction to probability with Mathematica

CERN Document Server

Hastings, Kevin J

2009-01-01

Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...

Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

2011-05-01

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bryan eCort

2013-10-01

Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.

A first course in probability

CERN Document Server

Ross, Sheldon

2014-01-01

A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.

Estimating Subjective Probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

2014-01-01

either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

Probability and Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

1987-01-01

This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

Market-implied risk-neutral probabilities, actual probabilities, credit risk and news

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shashidhar Murthy

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Motivated by the credit crisis, this paper investigates links between risk-neutral probabilities of default implied by markets (e.g. from yield spreads and their actual counterparts (e.g. from ratings. It discusses differences between the two and clarifies underlying economic intuition using simple representations of credit risk pricing. Observed large differences across bonds in the ratio of the two probabilities are shown to imply that apparently safer securities can be more sensitive to news.

Spatial probability aids visual stimulus discrimination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Druker

2010-08-01

Full Text Available We investigated whether the statistical predictability of a target's location would influence how quickly and accurately it was classified. Recent results have suggested that spatial probability can be a cue for the allocation of attention in visual search. One explanation for probability cuing is spatial repetition priming. In our two experiments we used probability distributions that were continuous across the display rather than relying on a few arbitrary screen locations. This produced fewer spatial repeats and allowed us to dissociate the effect of a high probability location from that of short-term spatial repetition. The task required participants to quickly judge the color of a single dot presented on a computer screen. In Experiment 1, targets were more probable in an off-center hotspot of high probability that gradually declined to a background rate. Targets garnered faster responses if they were near earlier target locations (priming and if they were near the high probability hotspot (probability cuing. In Experiment 2, target locations were chosen on three concentric circles around fixation. One circle contained 80% of targets. The value of this ring distribution is that it allowed for a spatially restricted high probability zone in which sequentially repeated trials were not likely to be physically close. Participant performance was sensitive to the high-probability circle in addition to the expected effects of eccentricity and the distance to recent targets. These two experiments suggest that inhomogeneities in spatial probability can be learned and used by participants on-line and without prompting as an aid for visual stimulus discrimination and that spatial repetition priming is not a sufficient explanation for this effect. Future models of attention should consider explicitly incorporating the probabilities of targets locations and features.

Short term depression unmasks the ghost frequency.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tjeerd V Olde Scheper

Full Text Available Short Term Plasticity (STP has been shown to exist extensively in synapses throughout the brain. Its function is more or less clear in the sense that it alters the probability of synaptic transmission at short time scales. However, it is still unclear what effect STP has on the dynamics of neural networks. We show, using a novel dynamic STP model, that Short Term Depression (STD can affect the phase of frequency coded input such that small networks can perform temporal signal summation and determination with high accuracy. We show that this property of STD can readily solve the problem of the ghost frequency, the perceived pitch of a harmonic complex in absence of the base frequency. Additionally, we demonstrate that this property can explain dynamics in larger networks. By means of two models, one of chopper neurons in the Ventral Cochlear Nucleus and one of a cortical microcircuit with inhibitory Martinotti neurons, it is shown that the dynamics in these microcircuits can reliably be reproduced using STP. Our model of STP gives important insights into the potential roles of STP in self-regulation of cortical activity and long-range afferent input in neuronal microcircuits.

A probability space for quantum models

Science.gov (United States)

Lemmens, L. F.

2017-06-01

A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Varacca, Daniele

Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...

Ignition Probability

Data.gov (United States)

Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

Probability of Failure in Random Vibration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1988-01-01

Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...

Invariant probabilities of transition functions

CERN Document Server

Zaharopol, Radu

2014-01-01

The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...

The concept of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bitsakis, E.I.; Nicolaides, C.A.

1989-01-01

The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs

Choice probability generating functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2010-01-01

This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

Probability via expectation

CERN Document Server

Whittle, Peter

1992-01-01

This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

The probability outcome correpondence principle : a dispositional view of the interpretation of probability statements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keren, G.; Teigen, K.H.

2001-01-01

This article presents a framework for lay people's internal representations of probabilities, which supposedly reflect the strength of underlying dispositions, or propensities, associated with the predicted event. From this framework, we derive the probability-outcome correspondence principle, which

Poisson Processes in Free Probability

OpenAIRE

An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu

2015-01-01

We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...

Solving probability reasoning based on DNA strand displacement and probability modules.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qiang; Wang, Xiaobiao; Wang, Xiaojun; Zhou, Changjun

2017-12-01

In computation biology, DNA strand displacement technology is used to simulate the computation process and has shown strong computing ability. Most researchers use it to solve logic problems, but it is only rarely used in probabilistic reasoning. To process probabilistic reasoning, a conditional probability derivation model and total probability model based on DNA strand displacement were established in this paper. The models were assessed through the game "read your mind." It has been shown to enable the application of probabilistic reasoning in genetic diagnosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of the probability of failure to probability of detection curve regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garza, J.; Millwater, H.

2016-01-01

Non-destructive inspection (NDI) techniques have been shown to play a vital role in fracture control plans, structural health monitoring, and ensuring availability and reliability of piping, pressure vessels, mechanical and aerospace equipment. Probabilistic fatigue simulations are often used in order to determine the efficacy of an inspection procedure with the NDI method modeled as a probability of detection (POD) curve. These simulations can be used to determine the most advantageous NDI method for a given application. As an aid to this process, a first order sensitivity method of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to regions of the POD curve (lower tail, middle region, right tail) is developed and presented here. The sensitivity method computes the partial derivative of the POF with respect to a change in each region of a POD or multiple POD curves. The sensitivities are computed at no cost by reusing the samples from an existing Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. A numerical example is presented considering single and multiple inspections. - Highlights: • Sensitivities of probability-of-failure to a region of probability-of-detection curve. • The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost. • Sensitivities identify the important region of a POD curve. • Sensitivities can be used as a guide to selecting the optimal POD curve.

Truth, possibility and probability new logical foundations of probability and statistical inference

CERN Document Server

Chuaqui, R

1991-01-01

Anyone involved in the philosophy of science is naturally drawn into the study of the foundations of probability. Different interpretations of probability, based on competing philosophical ideas, lead to different statistical techniques, and frequently to mutually contradictory consequences. This unique book presents a new interpretation of probability, rooted in the traditional interpretation that was current in the 17th and 18th centuries. Mathematical models are constructed based on this interpretation, and statistical inference and decision theory are applied, including some examples in artificial intelligence, solving the main foundational problems. Nonstandard analysis is extensively developed for the construction of the models and in some of the proofs. Many nonstandard theorems are proved, some of them new, in particular, a representation theorem that asserts that any stochastic process can be approximated by a process defined over a space with equiprobable outcomes.

Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

2015-04-01

This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pre-Aggregation with Probability Distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

2006-01-01

Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex, uncertain multidimensional data this paper proposes probabilistic OLAP queries that are computed using probability distributions rather than atomic values. The paper describes how to create probability distributions from base data, and how...... the distributions can be subsequently used in pre-aggregation. Since the probability distributions can become large, we show how to achieve good time and space efficiency by approximating the distributions. We present the results of several experiments that demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods. The work...... is motivated with a real-world case study, based on our collaboration with a leading Danish vendor of location-based services. This paper is the first to consider the approximate processing of probabilistic OLAP queries over probability distributions....

Probability and stochastic modeling

CERN Document Server

Rotar, Vladimir I

2012-01-01

Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...

Transitional Probabilities Are Prioritized over Stimulus/Pattern Probabilities in Auditory Deviance Detection: Memory Basis for Predictive Sound Processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Mittag, Maria; Takegata, Rika; Winkler, István

2016-09-14

Representations encoding the probabilities of auditory events do not directly support predictive processing. In contrast, information about the probability with which a given sound follows another (transitional probability) allows predictions of upcoming sounds. We tested whether behavioral and cortical auditory deviance detection (the latter indexed by the mismatch negativity event-related potential) relies on probabilities of sound patterns or on transitional probabilities. We presented healthy adult volunteers with three types of rare tone-triplets among frequent standard triplets of high-low-high (H-L-H) or L-H-L pitch structure: proximity deviant (H-H-H/L-L-L), reversal deviant (L-H-L/H-L-H), and first-tone deviant (L-L-H/H-H-L). If deviance detection was based on pattern probability, reversal and first-tone deviants should be detected with similar latency because both differ from the standard at the first pattern position. If deviance detection was based on transitional probabilities, then reversal deviants should be the most difficult to detect because, unlike the other two deviants, they contain no low-probability pitch transitions. The data clearly showed that both behavioral and cortical auditory deviance detection uses transitional probabilities. Thus, the memory traces underlying cortical deviance detection may provide a link between stimulus probability-based change/novelty detectors operating at lower levels of the auditory system and higher auditory cognitive functions that involve predictive processing. Our research presents the first definite evidence for the auditory system prioritizing transitional probabilities over probabilities of individual sensory events. Forming representations for transitional probabilities paves the way for predictions of upcoming sounds. Several recent theories suggest that predictive processing provides the general basis of human perception, including important auditory functions, such as auditory scene analysis. Our

Probability tales

CERN Document Server

Grinstead, Charles M; Snell, J Laurie

2011-01-01

This book explores four real-world topics through the lens of probability theory. It can be used to supplement a standard text in probability or statistics. Most elementary textbooks present the basic theory and then illustrate the ideas with some neatly packaged examples. Here the authors assume that the reader has seen, or is learning, the basic theory from another book and concentrate in some depth on the following topics: streaks, the stock market, lotteries, and fingerprints. This extended format allows the authors to present multiple approaches to problems and to pursue promising side discussions in ways that would not be possible in a book constrained to cover a fixed set of topics. To keep the main narrative accessible, the authors have placed the more technical mathematical details in appendices. The appendices can be understood by someone who has taken one or two semesters of calculus.

A Tale of Two Probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

2013-01-01

Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

Unmasking of a hemizygous WFS1 gene mutation by a chromosome 4p deletion of 8.3 Mb in a patient with Wolf-Hirschhorn syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Flipsen-ten Berg, Klara; van Hasselt, Peter M; Eleveld, Marc J; van der Wijst, Suzanne E; Hol, Frans A; de Vroede, Monique A M; Beemer, Frits A; Hochstenbach, P F Ron; Poot, Martin

2007-11-01

The Wolf-Hirschhorn syndrome (WHS (MIM 194190)), which is characterized by growth delay, mental retardation, epilepsy, facial dysmorphisms, and midline fusion defects, shows extensive phenotypic variability. Several of the proposed mutational and epigenetic mechanisms in this and other chromosomal deletion syndromes fail to explain the observed phenotypic variability. To explain the complex phenotype of a patient with WHS and features reminiscent of Wolfram syndrome (WFS (MIM 222300)), we performed extensive clinical evaluation and classical and molecular cytogenetic (GTG banding, FISH and array-CGH) and WFS1 gene mutation analyses. We detected an 8.3 Mb terminal deletion and an adjacent 2.6 Mb inverted duplication in the short arm of chromosome 4, which encompasses a gene associated with WFS (WFS1). In addition, a nonsense mutation in exon 8 of the WFS1 gene was found on the structurally normal chromosome 4. The combination of the 4p deletion with the WFS1 point mutation explains the complex phenotype presented by our patient. This case further illustrates that unmasking of hemizygous recessive mutations by chromosomal deletions represents an additional explanation for the phenotypic variability observed in chromosomal deletion disorders.

Impact of controlling the sum of error probability in the sequential probability ratio test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bijoy Kumarr Pradhan

2013-05-01

Full Text Available A generalized modified method is proposed to control the sum of error probabilities in sequential probability ratio test to minimize the weighted average of the two average sample numbers under a simple null hypothesis and a simple alternative hypothesis with the restriction that the sum of error probabilities is a pre-assigned constant to find the optimal sample size and finally a comparison is done with the optimal sample size found from fixed sample size procedure. The results are applied to the cases when the random variate follows a normal law as well as Bernoullian law.

Upgrading Probability via Fractions of Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frič Roman

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The influence of “Grundbegriffe” by A. N. Kolmogorov (published in 1933 on education in the area of probability and its impact on research in stochastics cannot be overestimated. We would like to point out three aspects of the classical probability theory “calling for” an upgrade: (i classical random events are black-and-white (Boolean; (ii classical random variables do not model quantum phenomena; (iii basic maps (probability measures and observables { dual maps to random variables have very different “mathematical nature”. Accordingly, we propose an upgraded probability theory based on Łukasiewicz operations (multivalued logic on events, elementary category theory, and covering the classical probability theory as a special case. The upgrade can be compared to replacing calculations with integers by calculations with rational (and real numbers. Namely, to avoid the three objections, we embed the classical (Boolean random events (represented by the f0; 1g-valued indicator functions of sets into upgraded random events (represented by measurable {0; 1}-valued functions, the minimal domain of probability containing “fractions” of classical random events, and we upgrade the notions of probability measure and random variable.

A Comprehensive Probability Project for the Upper Division One-Semester Probability Course Using Yahtzee

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Jason; Lawman, Joshua; Murphy, Rachael; Nelson, Marissa

2011-01-01

This article describes a probability project used in an upper division, one-semester probability course with third-semester calculus and linear algebra prerequisites. The student learning outcome focused on developing the skills necessary for approaching project-sized math/stat application problems. These skills include appropriately defining…

Prospective, unmasked evaluation of the iStent® inject system for open-angle glaucoma: synergy trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Voskanyan, Lilit; García-Feijoó, Julián; Belda, Jose I; Fea, Antonio; Jünemann, Anselm; Baudouin, Christophe

2014-02-01

Micro-invasive glaucoma surgical implantation of trabecular micro-bypass stents, previously shown to be safe and effective for open-angle glaucoma (OAG) subjects during cataract surgery, was considered for evaluation as a sole procedure. The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety and intraocular pressure (IOP)-lowering efficacy after ab interno implantation of two Glaukos Trabecular Micro-Bypass iStent inject second generation devices in subjects with OAG. This study was performed at sites in France, Germany, Italy, Republic of Armenia, and Spain. In this pan-European, multi-center prospective, post-market, unmasked study, 99 patients with OAG on at least two topical ocular hypotensive medications who required additional IOP lowering to control glaucoma disease underwent implantation of two GTS400 stents in a stand-alone procedure. Patients were qualified if they presented with preoperative mean IOP between 22 and 38 mmHg after medication washout. Postoperatively, subjects were assessed at Day 1, Months 1, 3, 6, 7, 9, and 12. IOP, medication use and safety were assessed at each visit. Sixty-six percent of subjects achieved IOP ≤18 mmHg at 12 months without medication, and 81% of subjects achieved Month 12 IOP ≤ 18 mmHg with either a single medication or no medication. Mean baseline washout IOP values decreased by 10.2 mmHg or 39.7% from 26.3 (SD 3.5) mmHg to 15.7 (SD 3.7) mmHg at Month 12. Mean IOP at 12 months was 14.7 (SD 3.1) mmHg in subjects not using ocular hypotensive medications. Reduction from preoperative medication burden was achieved in 86.9% of patients, including 15.2% with reduction of one medication and 71.7% with reduction of two or more medications. Postoperative complications occurred at a low rate and resolved without persistent effects. In this series, implantation of two trabecular micro-bypass second generation stents in subjects with OAG resulted in IOP and medication reduction and favorable safety outcomes.

Is probability of frequency too narrow?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martz, H.F.

1993-01-01

Modern methods of statistical data analysis, such as empirical and hierarchical Bayesian methods, should find increasing use in future Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications. In addition, there will be a more formalized use of expert judgment in future PRAs. These methods require an extension of the probabilistic framework of PRA, in particular, the popular notion of probability of frequency, to consideration of frequency of frequency, frequency of probability, and probability of probability. The genesis, interpretation, and examples of these three extended notions are discussed

An Alternative Version of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of Probability Logic

Science.gov (United States)

Satake, Eiki; Amato, Philip P.

2008-01-01

This paper presents an alternative version of formulas of conditional probabilities and Bayes' rule that demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic applies to the derivations of the conditional probabilities of various complex, compound statements. This new approach is used to calculate the prior and posterior probabilities…

Normal probability plots with confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

2015-01-01

Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Free probability and random matrices

CERN Document Server

Mingo, James A

2017-01-01

This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.

Probability with applications and R

CERN Document Server

Dobrow, Robert P

2013-01-01

An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

A philosophical essay on probabilities

CERN Document Server

Laplace, Marquis de

1996-01-01

A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application

Alternative probability theories for cognitive psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Narens, Louis

2014-01-01

Various proposals for generalizing event spaces for probability functions have been put forth in the mathematical, scientific, and philosophic literatures. In cognitive psychology such generalizations are used for explaining puzzling results in decision theory and for modeling the influence of context effects. This commentary discusses proposals for generalizing probability theory to event spaces that are not necessarily boolean algebras. Two prominent examples are quantum probability theory, which is based on the set of closed subspaces of a Hilbert space, and topological probability theory, which is based on the set of open sets of a topology. Both have been applied to a variety of cognitive situations. This commentary focuses on how event space properties can influence probability concepts and impact cognitive modeling. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers

CERN Document Server

Pugachev, V S

1984-01-01

Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector

Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications

CERN Document Server

Helms, Lester L

2010-01-01

This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process

Probability in quantum mechanics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. G. Gilson

1982-01-01

Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

Science.gov (United States)

Odafe, Victor U.

2011-01-01

Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, D.L.

1988-12-01

Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs.

Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.L.

1988-12-01

Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs

Economic choices reveal probability distortion in macaque monkeys.

Science.gov (United States)

Stauffer, William R; Lak, Armin; Bossaerts, Peter; Schultz, Wolfram

2015-02-18

Economic choices are largely determined by two principal elements, reward value (utility) and probability. Although nonlinear utility functions have been acknowledged for centuries, nonlinear probability weighting (probability distortion) was only recently recognized as a ubiquitous aspect of real-world choice behavior. Even when outcome probabilities are known and acknowledged, human decision makers often overweight low probability outcomes and underweight high probability outcomes. Whereas recent studies measured utility functions and their corresponding neural correlates in monkeys, it is not known whether monkeys distort probability in a manner similar to humans. Therefore, we investigated economic choices in macaque monkeys for evidence of probability distortion. We trained two monkeys to predict reward from probabilistic gambles with constant outcome values (0.5 ml or nothing). The probability of winning was conveyed using explicit visual cues (sector stimuli). Choices between the gambles revealed that the monkeys used the explicit probability information to make meaningful decisions. Using these cues, we measured probability distortion from choices between the gambles and safe rewards. Parametric modeling of the choices revealed classic probability weighting functions with inverted-S shape. Therefore, the animals overweighted low probability rewards and underweighted high probability rewards. Empirical investigation of the behavior verified that the choices were best explained by a combination of nonlinear value and nonlinear probability distortion. Together, these results suggest that probability distortion may reflect evolutionarily preserved neuronal processing. Copyright © 2015 Stauffer et al.

Expected utility with lower probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

1994-01-01

An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

Hippocampal serotonin depletion unmasks differences in the hyperlocomotor effects of phencyclidine and MK-801: quantitative versus qualitative analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wendy K Adams

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Antagonism of N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA receptors by phencyclidine is thought to underlie its ability to induce a schizophrenia-like syndrome in humans, yet evidence indicates it has a broader pharmacological profile. Our previous lesion studies highlighted a role for serotonergic projections from the median, but not dorsal, raphe nucleus in mediating the hyperlocomotor effects of phencyclidine, without changing the action of the more selective NMDA receptor antagonist, MK-801. Here we compared locomotor responses to phencyclidine and MK 801 in rats that were administered 5,7 dihydroxytryptamine (5,7-DHT into either the dorsal or ventral hippocampus, which are preferentially innervated by median and dorsal raphe, respectively. Dorsal hippocampus lesions potentiated phencyclidine-induced hyperlocomotion (0.5, 2.5 mg/kg, but not the effect of MK-801 (0.1 mg/kg. Ventral hippocampus lesions did not alter the hyperlocomotion elicited by either compound. Given that phencyclidine and MK-801 may induce different spatiotemporal patterns of locomotor behavior, together with the known role of the dorsal hippocampus in spatial processing, we also assessed whether the 5,7-DHT-lesions caused any qualitative differences in locomotor responses. Treatment with phencyclidine or MK-801 increased the smoothness of the path travelled (reduced spatial d and decreased the predictability of locomotor patterns within the chambers (increased entropy. 5,7-DHT-lesions of the dorsal hippocampus did not alter the effects of phencyclidine on spatial d or entropy—despite potentiating total distance moved—but caused a slight reduction in levels of MK-801-induced entropy. Taken together, serotonergic lesions targeting the dorsal hippocampus unmask a functional differentiation of the hyperlocomotor effects of phencyclidine and MK 801. These findings have implications for studies utilising NMDA receptor antagonists in modeling glutamatergic dysfunction in schizophrenia.

Striatal activity is modulated by target probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Hon, Nicholas

2017-06-14

Target probability has well-known neural effects. In the brain, target probability is known to affect frontal activity, with lower probability targets producing more prefrontal activation than those that occur with higher probability. Although the effect of target probability on cortical activity is well specified, its effect on subcortical structures such as the striatum is less well understood. Here, I examined this issue and found that the striatum was highly responsive to target probability. This is consistent with its hypothesized role in the gating of salient information into higher-order task representations. The current data are interpreted in light of that fact that different components of the striatum are sensitive to different types of task-relevant information.

Failure probability analysis of optical grid

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Sun, Weiqiang; Jin, Yaohui; Hu, Weisheng

2008-11-01

Optical grid, the integrated computing environment based on optical network, is expected to be an efficient infrastructure to support advanced data-intensive grid applications. In optical grid, the faults of both computational and network resources are inevitable due to the large scale and high complexity of the system. With the optical network based distributed computing systems extensive applied in the processing of data, the requirement of the application failure probability have been an important indicator of the quality of application and an important aspect the operators consider. This paper will present a task-based analysis method of the application failure probability in optical grid. Then the failure probability of the entire application can be quantified, and the performance of reducing application failure probability in different backup strategies can be compared, so that the different requirements of different clients can be satisfied according to the application failure probability respectively. In optical grid, when the application based DAG (directed acyclic graph) is executed in different backup strategies, the application failure probability and the application complete time is different. This paper will propose new multi-objective differentiated services algorithm (MDSA). New application scheduling algorithm can guarantee the requirement of the failure probability and improve the network resource utilization, realize a compromise between the network operator and the application submission. Then differentiated services can be achieved in optical grid.

An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)

CERN Document Server

Gillies, Donald

2012-01-01

This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma

Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

CERN Document Server

Ibe, Oliver

2014-01-01

The long-awaited revision of Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random Processes expands on the central components that made the first edition a classic. The title is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability t

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Elwood, Richard W

2016-12-01

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) probability wheel

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Sheng-Cheng; Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B.; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P.; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K.

A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant", about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.

Quantum computing and probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferry, David K

2009-11-25

Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

Quantum computing and probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferry, David K

2009-01-01

Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction. (viewpoint)

[Biometric bases: basic concepts of probability calculation].

Science.gov (United States)

Dinya, E

1998-04-26

The author gives or outline of the basic concepts of probability theory. The bases of the event algebra, definition of the probability, the classical probability model and the random variable are presented.

Pre-aggregation for Probability Distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex uncertain multidimensional data (e.g., in order to optimize and personalize location-based services), this paper proposes novel types of {\\em probabilistic} OLAP queries that operate on aggregate values that are probability distributions...... and the techniques to process these queries. The paper also presents the methods for computing the probability distributions, which enables pre-aggregation, and for using the pre-aggregated distributions for further aggregation. In order to achieve good time and space efficiency, the methods perform approximate...... multidimensional data analysis that is considered in this paper (i.e., approximate processing of probabilistic OLAP queries over probability distributions)....

Contributions to quantum probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fritz, Tobias

2010-01-01

Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome

Probability inequalities for decomposition integrals

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko

2017-01-01

Roč. 315, č. 1 (2017), s. 240-248 ISSN 0377-0427 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Decomposition integral * Superdecomposition integral * Probability inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0470959.pdf

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.

1996-03-01

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , S st , p st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , S su , p su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , S st , p st ) and (S su , S su , p su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.

1996-01-01

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , L st , P st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , L su , P su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , L st , P st ) and (S su , L su , P su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

Void probability scaling in hadron nucleus interactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, Dipak; Deb, Argha; Bhattacharyya, Swarnapratim; Ghosh, Jayita; Bandyopadhyay, Prabhat; Das, Rupa; Mukherjee, Sima

2002-01-01

Heygi while investigating with the rapidity gap probability (that measures the chance of finding no particle in the pseudo-rapidity interval Δη) found that a scaling behavior in the rapidity gap probability has a close correspondence with the scaling of a void probability in galaxy correlation study. The main aim in this paper is to study the scaling behavior of the rapidity gap probability

Paraconsistent Probabilities: Consistency, Contradictions and Bayes’ Theorem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juliana Bueno-Soler

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper represents the first steps towards constructing a paraconsistent theory of probability based on the Logics of Formal Inconsistency (LFIs. We show that LFIs encode very naturally an extension of the notion of probability able to express sophisticated probabilistic reasoning under contradictions employing appropriate notions of conditional probability and paraconsistent updating, via a version of Bayes’ theorem for conditionalization. We argue that the dissimilarity between the notions of inconsistency and contradiction, one of the pillars of LFIs, plays a central role in our extended notion of probability. Some critical historical and conceptual points about probability theory are also reviewed.

Exploring non-signalling polytopes with negative probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oas, G; Barros, J Acacio de; Carvalhaes, C

2014-01-01

Bipartite and tripartite EPR–Bell type systems are examined via joint quasi-probability distributions where probabilities are permitted to be negative. It is shown that such distributions exist only when the no-signalling condition is satisfied. A characteristic measure, the probability mass, is introduced and, via its minimization, limits the number of quasi-distributions describing a given marginal probability distribution. The minimized probability mass is shown to be an alternative way to characterize non-local systems. Non-signalling polytopes for two to eight settings in the bipartite scenario are examined and compared to prior work. Examining perfect cloning of non-local systems within the tripartite scenario suggests defining two categories of signalling. It is seen that many properties of non-local systems can be efficiently described by quasi-probability theory. (paper)

Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

CERN Document Server

Ibe, Oliver

2005-01-01

This book is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability to real-world problems, and introduce the basics of statistics. The book''s clear writing style and homework problems make it ideal for the classroom or for self-study.* Good and solid introduction to probability theory and stochastic processes * Logically organized; writing is presented in a clear manner * Choice of topics is comprehensive within the area of probability * Ample homework problems are organized into chapter sections

The enigma of probability and physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mayants, L.

1984-01-01

This volume contains a coherent exposition of the elements of two unique sciences: probabilistics (science of probability) and probabilistic physics (application of probabilistics to physics). Proceeding from a key methodological principle, it starts with the disclosure of the true content of probability and the interrelation between probability theory and experimental statistics. This makes is possible to introduce a proper order in all the sciences dealing with probability and, by conceiving the real content of statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics in particular, to construct both as two interconnected domains of probabilistic physics. Consistent theories of kinetics of physical transformations, decay processes, and intramolecular rearrangements are also outlined. The interrelation between the electromagnetic field, photons, and the theoretically discovered subatomic particle 'emon' is considered. Numerous internal imperfections of conventional probability theory, statistical physics, and quantum physics are exposed and removed - quantum physics no longer needs special interpretation. EPR, Bohm, and Bell paradoxes are easily resolved, among others. (Auth.)

F.Y. Edgeworth’s Treatise on Probabilities

OpenAIRE

Alberto Baccini

2007-01-01

Probability theory has a central role in Edgeworth’s thought; this paper examines the philosophical foundation of the theory. Starting from a frequentist position, Edgeworth introduced some innovations on the definition of primitive probabilities. He distinguished between primitive probabilities based on experience of statistical evidence, and primitive a priori probabilities based on a more general and less precise kind of experience, inherited by the human race through evolution. Given prim...

Approximation methods in probability theory

CERN Document Server

Čekanavičius, Vydas

2016-01-01

This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.

Introduction to imprecise probabilities

CERN Document Server

Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M

2014-01-01

In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

Classic Problems of Probability

CERN Document Server

Gorroochurn, Prakash

2012-01-01

"A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin

Contributions to quantum probability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fritz, Tobias

2010-06-25

Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a

Assessing the clinical probability of pulmonary embolism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miniati, M.; Pistolesi, M.

2001-01-01

Clinical assessment is a cornerstone of the recently validated diagnostic strategies for pulmonary embolism (PE). Although the diagnostic yield of individual symptoms, signs, and common laboratory tests is limited, the combination of these variables, either by empirical assessment or by a prediction rule, can be used to express a clinical probability of PE. The latter may serve as pretest probability to predict the probability of PE after further objective testing (posterior or post-test probability). Over the last few years, attempts have been made to develop structured prediction models for PE. In a Canadian multicenter prospective study, the clinical probability of PE was rated as low, intermediate, or high according to a model which included assessment of presenting symptoms and signs, risk factors, and presence or absence of an alternative diagnosis at least as likely as PE. Recently, a simple clinical score was developed to stratify outpatients with suspected PE into groups with low, intermediate, or high clinical probability. Logistic regression was used to predict parameters associated with PE. A score ≤ 4 identified patients with low probability of whom 10% had PE. The prevalence of PE in patients with intermediate (score 5-8) and high probability (score ≥ 9) was 38 and 81%, respectively. As opposed to the Canadian model, this clinical score is standardized. The predictor variables identified in the model, however, were derived from a database of emergency ward patients. This model may, therefore, not be valid in assessing the clinical probability of PE in inpatients. In the PISA-PED study, a clinical diagnostic algorithm was developed which rests on the identification of three relevant clinical symptoms and on their association with electrocardiographic and/or radiographic abnormalities specific for PE. Among patients who, according to the model, had been rated as having a high clinical probability, the prevalence of proven PE was 97%, while it was 3

Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations

Science.gov (United States)

López Puga, Jorge

2014-01-01

The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.

Towards a Categorical Account of Conditional Probability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Furber

2015-11-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a categorical account of conditional probability, covering both the classical and the quantum case. Classical conditional probabilities are expressed as a certain "triangle-fill-in" condition, connecting marginal and joint probabilities, in the Kleisli category of the distribution monad. The conditional probabilities are induced by a map together with a predicate (the condition. The latter is a predicate in the logic of effect modules on this Kleisli category. This same approach can be transferred to the category of C*-algebras (with positive unital maps, whose predicate logic is also expressed in terms of effect modules. Conditional probabilities can again be expressed via a triangle-fill-in property. In the literature, there are several proposals for what quantum conditional probability should be, and also there are extra difficulties not present in the classical case. At this stage, we only describe quantum systems with classical parametrization.

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)

1996-03-01

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) and (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems.

Sensitivity of probability-of-failure estimates with respect to probability of detection curve parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garza, J. [University of Texas at San Antonio, Mechanical Engineering, 1 UTSA circle, EB 3.04.50, San Antonio, TX 78249 (United States); Millwater, H., E-mail: harry.millwater@utsa.edu [University of Texas at San Antonio, Mechanical Engineering, 1 UTSA circle, EB 3.04.50, San Antonio, TX 78249 (United States)

2012-04-15

A methodology has been developed and demonstrated that can be used to compute the sensitivity of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to the parameters of inspection processes that are simulated using probability of detection (POD) curves. The formulation is such that the probabilistic sensitivities can be obtained at negligible cost using sampling methods by reusing the samples used to compute the POF. As a result, the methodology can be implemented for negligible cost in a post-processing non-intrusive manner thereby facilitating implementation with existing or commercial codes. The formulation is generic and not limited to any specific random variables, fracture mechanics formulation, or any specific POD curve as long as the POD is modeled parametrically. Sensitivity estimates for the cases of different POD curves at multiple inspections, and the same POD curves at multiple inspections have been derived. Several numerical examples are presented and show excellent agreement with finite difference estimates with significant computational savings. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sensitivity of the probability-of-failure with respect to the probability-of-detection curve. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost using Monte Carlo sampling. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The change in the POF due to a change in the POD curve parameters can be easily estimated.

Sensitivity of probability-of-failure estimates with respect to probability of detection curve parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garza, J.; Millwater, H.

2012-01-01

A methodology has been developed and demonstrated that can be used to compute the sensitivity of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to the parameters of inspection processes that are simulated using probability of detection (POD) curves. The formulation is such that the probabilistic sensitivities can be obtained at negligible cost using sampling methods by reusing the samples used to compute the POF. As a result, the methodology can be implemented for negligible cost in a post-processing non-intrusive manner thereby facilitating implementation with existing or commercial codes. The formulation is generic and not limited to any specific random variables, fracture mechanics formulation, or any specific POD curve as long as the POD is modeled parametrically. Sensitivity estimates for the cases of different POD curves at multiple inspections, and the same POD curves at multiple inspections have been derived. Several numerical examples are presented and show excellent agreement with finite difference estimates with significant computational savings. - Highlights: ► Sensitivity of the probability-of-failure with respect to the probability-of-detection curve. ►The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost using Monte Carlo sampling. ► The change in the POF due to a change in the POD curve parameters can be easily estimated.

PROBABILITY CALIBRATION BY THE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM PROBABILITY SCORES IN ONE-CLASS BAYES LEARNING FOR ANOMALY DETECTION

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — PROBABILITY CALIBRATION BY THE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM PROBABILITY SCORES IN ONE-CLASS BAYES LEARNING FOR ANOMALY DETECTION GUICHONG LI, NATHALIE JAPKOWICZ, IAN HOFFMAN,...

Collective probabilities algorithm for surface hopping calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastida, Adolfo; Cruz, Carlos; Zuniga, Jose; Requena, Alberto

2003-01-01

General equations that transition probabilities of the hopping algorithms in surface hopping calculations must obey to assure the equality between the average quantum and classical populations are derived. These equations are solved for two particular cases. In the first it is assumed that probabilities are the same for all trajectories and that the number of hops is kept to a minimum. These assumptions specify the collective probabilities (CP) algorithm, for which the transition probabilities depend on the average populations for all trajectories. In the second case, the probabilities for each trajectory are supposed to be completely independent of the results from the other trajectories. There is, then, a unique solution of the general equations assuring that the transition probabilities are equal to the quantum population of the target state, which is referred to as the independent probabilities (IP) algorithm. The fewest switches (FS) algorithm developed by Tully is accordingly understood as an approximate hopping algorithm which takes elements from the accurate CP and IP solutions. A numerical test of all these hopping algorithms is carried out for a one-dimensional two-state problem with two avoiding crossings which shows the accuracy and computational efficiency of the collective probabilities algorithm proposed, the limitations of the FS algorithm and the similarity between the results offered by the IP algorithm and those obtained with the Ehrenfest method

Foundations of the theory of probability

CERN Document Server

Kolmogorov, AN

2018-01-01

This famous little book remains a foundational text for the understanding of probability theory, important both to students beginning a serious study of probability and to historians of modern mathematics. 1956 second edition.

Probability an introduction with statistical applications

CERN Document Server

Kinney, John J

2014-01-01

Praise for the First Edition""This is a well-written and impressively presented introduction to probability and statistics. The text throughout is highly readable, and the author makes liberal use of graphs and diagrams to clarify the theory.""  - The StatisticianThoroughly updated, Probability: An Introduction with Statistical Applications, Second Edition features a comprehensive exploration of statistical data analysis as an application of probability. The new edition provides an introduction to statistics with accessible coverage of reliability, acceptance sampling, confidence intervals, h

Probability Distributome: A Web Computational Infrastructure for Exploring the Properties, Interrelations, and Applications of Probability Distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Dinov, Ivo D; Siegrist, Kyle; Pearl, Dennis K; Kalinin, Alexandr; Christou, Nicolas

2016-06-01

Probability distributions are useful for modeling, simulation, analysis, and inference on varieties of natural processes and physical phenomena. There are uncountably many probability distributions. However, a few dozen families of distributions are commonly defined and are frequently used in practice for problem solving, experimental applications, and theoretical studies. In this paper, we present a new computational and graphical infrastructure, the Distributome , which facilitates the discovery, exploration and application of diverse spectra of probability distributions. The extensible Distributome infrastructure provides interfaces for (human and machine) traversal, search, and navigation of all common probability distributions. It also enables distribution modeling, applications, investigation of inter-distribution relations, as well as their analytical representations and computational utilization. The entire Distributome framework is designed and implemented as an open-source, community-built, and Internet-accessible infrastructure. It is portable, extensible and compatible with HTML5 and Web2.0 standards (http://Distributome.org). We demonstrate two types of applications of the probability Distributome resources: computational research and science education. The Distributome tools may be employed to address five complementary computational modeling applications (simulation, data-analysis and inference, model-fitting, examination of the analytical, mathematical and computational properties of specific probability distributions, and exploration of the inter-distributional relations). Many high school and college science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses may be enriched by the use of modern pedagogical approaches and technology-enhanced methods. The Distributome resources provide enhancements for blended STEM education by improving student motivation, augmenting the classical curriculum with interactive webapps, and overhauling the

Transition probability spaces in loop quantum gravity

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Xiao-Kan

2018-03-01

We study the (generalized) transition probability spaces, in the sense of Mielnik and Cantoni, for spacetime quantum states in loop quantum gravity. First, we show that loop quantum gravity admits the structures of transition probability spaces. This is exemplified by first checking such structures in covariant quantum mechanics and then identifying the transition probability spaces in spin foam models via a simplified version of general boundary formulation. The transition probability space thus defined gives a simple way to reconstruct the discrete analog of the Hilbert space of the canonical theory and the relevant quantum logical structures. Second, we show that the transition probability space and in particular the spin foam model are 2-categories. Then we discuss how to realize in spin foam models two proposals by Crane about the mathematical structures of quantum gravity, namely, the quantum topos and causal sites. We conclude that transition probability spaces provide us with an alternative framework to understand various foundational questions of loop quantum gravity.

Bayesian Probability Theory

Science.gov (United States)

von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

2014-06-01

Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

Encounter Probability of Individual Wave Height

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Z.; Burcharth, H. F.

1998-01-01

wave height corresponding to a certain exceedence probability within a structure lifetime (encounter probability), based on the statistical analysis of long-term extreme significant wave height. Then the design individual wave height is calculated as the expected maximum individual wave height...... associated with the design significant wave height, with the assumption that the individual wave heights follow the Rayleigh distribution. However, the exceedence probability of such a design individual wave height within the structure lifetime is unknown. The paper presents a method for the determination...... of the design individual wave height corresponding to an exceedence probability within the structure lifetime, given the long-term extreme significant wave height. The method can also be applied for estimation of the number of relatively large waves for fatigue analysis of constructions....

Two-slit experiment: quantum and classical probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khrennikov, Andrei

2015-01-01

Inter-relation between quantum and classical probability models is one of the most fundamental problems of quantum foundations. Nowadays this problem also plays an important role in quantum technologies, in quantum cryptography and the theory of quantum random generators. In this letter, we compare the viewpoint of Richard Feynman that the behavior of quantum particles cannot be described by classical probability theory with the viewpoint that quantum–classical inter-relation is more complicated (cf, in particular, with the tomographic model of quantum mechanics developed in detail by Vladimir Man'ko). As a basic example, we consider the two-slit experiment, which played a crucial role in quantum foundational debates at the beginning of quantum mechanics (QM). In particular, its analysis led Niels Bohr to the formulation of the principle of complementarity. First, we demonstrate that in complete accordance with Feynman's viewpoint, the probabilities for the two-slit experiment have the non-Kolmogorovian structure, since they violate one of basic laws of classical probability theory, the law of total probability (the heart of the Bayesian analysis). However, then we show that these probabilities can be embedded in a natural way into the classical (Kolmogorov, 1933) probability model. To do this, one has to take into account the randomness of selection of different experimental contexts, the joint consideration of which led Feynman to a conclusion about the non-classicality of quantum probability. We compare this embedding of non-Kolmogorovian quantum probabilities into the Kolmogorov model with well-known embeddings of non-Euclidean geometries into Euclidean space (e.g., the Poincaré disk model for the Lobachvesky plane). (paper)

Handbook of probability theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Rudas, Tamas

2008-01-01

""This is a valuable reference guide for readers interested in gaining a basic understanding of probability theory or its applications in problem solving in the other disciplines.""-CHOICEProviding cutting-edge perspectives and real-world insights into the greater utility of probability and its applications, the Handbook of Probability offers an equal balance of theory and direct applications in a non-technical, yet comprehensive, format. Editor Tamás Rudas and the internationally-known contributors present the material in a manner so that researchers of vari

Computation of the Complex Probability Function

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Trainer, Amelia Jo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ledwith, Patrick John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-08-22

The complex probability function is important in many areas of physics and many techniques have been developed in an attempt to compute it for some z quickly and e ciently. Most prominent are the methods that use Gauss-Hermite quadrature, which uses the roots of the n^th degree Hermite polynomial and corresponding weights to approximate the complex probability function. This document serves as an overview and discussion of the use, shortcomings, and potential improvements on the Gauss-Hermite quadrature for the complex probability function.

The Probabilities of Unique Events

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-30

Washington, DC USA Max Lotstein and Phil Johnson-Laird Department of Psychology Princeton University Princeton, NJ USA August 30th 2012...social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. The participants ranked the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller as...retorted that such a flagrant violation of the probability calculus was a result of a psychological experiment that obscured the rationality of the

High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

2018-01-01

In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

"I Don't Really Understand Probability at All": Final Year Pre-Service Teachers' Understanding of Probability

Science.gov (United States)

Maher, Nicole; Muir, Tracey

2014-01-01

This paper reports on one aspect of a wider study that investigated a selection of final year pre-service primary teachers' responses to four probability tasks. The tasks focused on foundational ideas of probability including sample space, independence, variation and expectation. Responses suggested that strongly held intuitions appeared to…

Probability of spent fuel transportation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McClure, J.D.

1981-07-01

The transported volume of spent fuel, incident/accident experience and accident environment probabilities were reviewed in order to provide an estimate of spent fuel accident probabilities. In particular, the accident review assessed the accident experience for large casks of the type that could transport spent (irradiated) nuclear fuel. This review determined that since 1971, the beginning of official US Department of Transportation record keeping for accidents/incidents, there has been one spent fuel transportation accident. This information, coupled with estimated annual shipping volumes for spent fuel, indicated an estimated annual probability of a spent fuel transport accident of 5 x 10 -7 spent fuel accidents per mile. This is consistent with ordinary truck accident rates. A comparison of accident environments and regulatory test environments suggests that the probability of truck accidents exceeding regulatory test for impact is approximately 10 -9 /mile

Probabilities on Streams and Reflexive Games

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Schumann

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Probability measures on streams (e.g. on hypernumbers and p-adic numbers have been defined. It was shown that these probabilities can be used for simulations of reflexive games. In particular, it can be proved that Aumann's agreement theorem does not hold for these probabilities. Instead of this theorem, there is a statement that is called the reflexion disagreement theorem. Based on this theorem, probabilistic and knowledge conditions can be defined for reflexive games at various reflexion levels up to the infinite level. (original abstract

Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howard, R.A.

1988-01-01

The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group

Immune Reconstitution Inflammatory Syndrome Unmasking or Worsening AIDS-Related Progressive Multifocal Leukoencephalopathy: A Literature Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Fournier

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Incidence of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML in HIV-infected patients has declined in the combined antiretroviral therapy (cART era although a growing number of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS-related PML-immune reconstitution inflammatory syndromes (PML-IRIS have been published during the same period. Therapeutic management of PML-IRIS is not consensual and mainly relies on corticosteroids. Our main aim was, in addition to provide a thoughtful analysis of published PML-IRIS cases, to assess the benefit of corticosteroids in the management of PML-IRIS, focusing on confirmed cases. We performed a literature review of the 46 confirmed cases of PML-IRIS cases occurring in HIV-infected patients from 1998 to September 2016 (21 unmasking and 25 paradoxical PML-IRIS. AIDS-related PML-IRIS patients were mostly men (sex ratio 4/1 with a median age of 40.5 years (range 12–66. Median CD4 T cell count before cART and at PML-IRIS onset was 45/μl (0–301 and 101/μl (20–610, respectively. After cART initiation, PML-IRIS occurred within a median timescale of 38 days (18–120. Clinical signs were motor deficits (69%, speech disorders (36%, cognitive disorders (33%, cerebellar ataxia (28%, and visual disturbances (23%. Brain MRI revealed hyperintense areas on T2-weighted sequences and FLAIR images (76% and suggestive contrast enhancement (87%. PCR for John Cunningham virus (JCV in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF was positive in only 84% of cases; however, when performed, brain biopsy confirmed diagnosis of PML in 90% of cases and demonstrated histological signs of IRIS in 95% of cases. Clinical worsening related to PML-IRIS and leading to death was observed in 28% of cases. Corticosteroids were prescribed in 63% of cases and maraviroc in one case. Statistical analysis failed to demonstrate significant benefit from steroid treatment, despite spectacular improvement in certain cases. Diagnosis of PML-IRIS should be considered in HIV

Immune Reconstitution Inflammatory Syndrome Unmasking or Worsening AIDS-Related Progressive Multifocal Leukoencephalopathy: A Literature Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Fournier, Anna; Martin-Blondel, Guillaume; Lechapt-Zalcman, Emmanuèle; Dina, Julia; Kazemi, Apolline; Verdon, Renaud; Mortier, Emmanuel; de La Blanchardière, Arnaud

2017-01-01

Incidence of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) in HIV-infected patients has declined in the combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) era although a growing number of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related PML-immune reconstitution inflammatory syndromes (PML-IRIS) have been published during the same period. Therapeutic management of PML-IRIS is not consensual and mainly relies on corticosteroids. Our main aim was, in addition to provide a thoughtful analysis of published PML-IRIS cases, to assess the benefit of corticosteroids in the management of PML-IRIS, focusing on confirmed cases. We performed a literature review of the 46 confirmed cases of PML-IRIS cases occurring in HIV-infected patients from 1998 to September 2016 (21 unmasking and 25 paradoxical PML-IRIS). AIDS-related PML-IRIS patients were mostly men (sex ratio 4/1) with a median age of 40.5 years (range 12-66). Median CD4 T cell count before cART and at PML-IRIS onset was 45/μl (0-301) and 101/μl (20-610), respectively. After cART initiation, PML-IRIS occurred within a median timescale of 38 days (18-120). Clinical signs were motor deficits (69%), speech disorders (36%), cognitive disorders (33%), cerebellar ataxia (28%), and visual disturbances (23%). Brain MRI revealed hyperintense areas on T2-weighted sequences and FLAIR images (76%) and suggestive contrast enhancement (87%). PCR for John Cunningham virus (JCV) in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was positive in only 84% of cases; however, when performed, brain biopsy confirmed diagnosis of PML in 90% of cases and demonstrated histological signs of IRIS in 95% of cases. Clinical worsening related to PML-IRIS and leading to death was observed in 28% of cases. Corticosteroids were prescribed in 63% of cases and maraviroc in one case. Statistical analysis failed to demonstrate significant benefit from steroid treatment, despite spectacular improvement in certain cases. Diagnosis of PML-IRIS should be considered in HIV

Teaching Probability: A Socio-Constructivist Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Sashi

2015-01-01

There is a considerable and rich literature on students' misconceptions in probability. However, less attention has been paid to the development of students' probabilistic thinking in the classroom. This paper offers a sequence, grounded in socio-constructivist perspective for teaching probability.

Default probabilities and default correlations

OpenAIRE

Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans

2001-01-01

Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...

Probability Matching, Fast and Slow

OpenAIRE

Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta

2014-01-01

A prominent point of contention among researchers regarding the interpretation of probability-matching behavior is whether it represents a cognitively sophisticated, adaptive response to the inherent uncertainty of the tasks or settings in which it is observed, or whether instead it represents a fundamental shortcoming in the heuristics that support and guide human decision making. Put crudely, researchers disagree on whether probability matching is "smart" or "dumb." Here, we consider eviden...

Posterior Probability Matching and Human Perceptual Decision Making.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard F Murray

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Probability matching is a classic theory of decision making that was first developed in models of cognition. Posterior probability matching, a variant in which observers match their response probabilities to the posterior probability of each response being correct, is being used increasingly often in models of perception. However, little is known about whether posterior probability matching is consistent with the vast literature on vision and hearing that has developed within signal detection theory. Here we test posterior probability matching models using two tools from detection theory. First, we examine the models' performance in a two-pass experiment, where each block of trials is presented twice, and we measure the proportion of times that the model gives the same response twice to repeated stimuli. We show that at low performance levels, posterior probability matching models give highly inconsistent responses across repeated presentations of identical trials. We find that practised human observers are more consistent across repeated trials than these models predict, and we find some evidence that less practised observers more consistent as well. Second, we compare the performance of posterior probability matching models on a discrimination task to the performance of a theoretical ideal observer that achieves the best possible performance. We find that posterior probability matching is very inefficient at low-to-moderate performance levels, and that human observers can be more efficient than is ever possible according to posterior probability matching models. These findings support classic signal detection models, and rule out a broad class of posterior probability matching models for expert performance on perceptual tasks that range in complexity from contrast discrimination to symmetry detection. However, our findings leave open the possibility that inexperienced observers may show posterior probability matching behaviour, and our methods

Multiple-event probability in general-relativistic quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hellmann, Frank; Mondragon, Mauricio; Perez, Alejandro; Rovelli, Carlo

2007-01-01

We discuss the definition of quantum probability in the context of 'timeless' general-relativistic quantum mechanics. In particular, we study the probability of sequences of events, or multievent probability. In conventional quantum mechanics this can be obtained by means of the 'wave function collapse' algorithm. We first point out certain difficulties of some natural definitions of multievent probability, including the conditional probability widely considered in the literature. We then observe that multievent probability can be reduced to single-event probability, by taking into account the quantum nature of the measuring apparatus. In fact, by exploiting the von-Neumann freedom of moving the quantum/classical boundary, one can always trade a sequence of noncommuting quantum measurements at different times, with an ensemble of simultaneous commuting measurements on the joint system+apparatus system. This observation permits a formulation of quantum theory based only on single-event probability, where the results of the wave function collapse algorithm can nevertheless be recovered. The discussion also bears on the nature of the quantum collapse

Evaluation of probability and hazard in nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Novikov, V.Ya.; Romanov, N.L.

1979-01-01

Various methods of evaluation of accident probability on NPP are proposed because of NPP security statistic evaluation unreliability. The conception of subjective probability for quantitative analysis of security and hazard are described. Intrepretation of probability as real faith of an expert is assumed as a basis of the conception. It is suggested to study the event uncertainty in the framework of subjective probability theory which not only permits but demands to take into account expert opinions when evaluating the probability. These subjective expert evaluations effect to a certain extent the calculation of the usual mathematical event probability. The above technique is advantageous to use for consideration of a separate experiment or random event

p-adic probability interpretation of Bell's inequality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khrennikov, A.

1995-01-01

We study the violation of Bell's inequality using a p-adic generalization of the theory of probability. p-adic probability is introduced as a limit of relative frequencies but this limit exists with respect to a p-adic metric. In particular, negative probability distributions are well defined on the basis of the frequency definition. This new type of stochastics can be used to describe hidden-variables distributions of some quantum models. If the hidden variables have a p-adic probability distribution, Bell's inequality is not valid and it is not necessary to discuss the experimental violations of this inequality. ((orig.))

Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

2015-10-01

The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slunga, R.

1979-03-01

A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)

Modelling the probability of building fires

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vojtěch Barták

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Systematic spatial risk analysis plays a crucial role in preventing emergencies.In the Czech Republic, risk mapping is currently based on the risk accumulationprinciple, area vulnerability, and preparedness levels of Integrated Rescue Systemcomponents. Expert estimates are used to determine risk levels for individualhazard types, while statistical modelling based on data from actual incidents andtheir possible causes is not used. Our model study, conducted in cooperation withthe Fire Rescue Service of the Czech Republic as a model within the Liberec andHradec Králové regions, presents an analytical procedure leading to the creation ofbuilding fire probability maps based on recent incidents in the studied areas andon building parameters. In order to estimate the probability of building fires, aprediction model based on logistic regression was used. Probability of fire calculatedby means of model parameters and attributes of specific buildings can subsequentlybe visualized in probability maps.

Probability theory

CERN Document Server

Dorogovtsev, A Ya; Skorokhod, A V; Silvestrov, D S; Skorokhod, A V

1997-01-01

This book of problems is intended for students in pure and applied mathematics. There are problems in traditional areas of probability theory and problems in the theory of stochastic processes, which has wide applications in the theory of automatic control, queuing and reliability theories, and in many other modern science and engineering fields. Answers to most of the problems are given, and the book provides hints and solutions for more complicated problems.

Trial type probability modulates the cost of antisaccades

Science.gov (United States)

Chiau, Hui-Yan; Tseng, Philip; Su, Jia-Han; Tzeng, Ovid J. L.; Hung, Daisy L.; Muggleton, Neil G.

2011-01-01

The antisaccade task, where eye movements are made away from a target, has been used to investigate the flexibility of cognitive control of behavior. Antisaccades usually have longer saccade latencies than prosaccades, the so-called antisaccade cost. Recent studies have shown that this antisaccade cost can be modulated by event probability. This may mean that the antisaccade cost can be reduced, or even reversed, if the probability of surrounding events favors the execution of antisaccades. The probabilities of prosaccades and antisaccades were systematically manipulated by changing the proportion of a certain type of trial in an interleaved pro/antisaccades task. We aimed to disentangle the intertwined relationship between trial type probabilities and the antisaccade cost with the ultimate goal of elucidating how probabilities of trial types modulate human flexible behaviors, as well as the characteristics of such modulation effects. To this end, we examined whether implicit trial type probability can influence saccade latencies and also manipulated the difficulty of cue discriminability to see how effects of trial type probability would change when the demand on visual perceptual analysis was high or low. A mixed-effects model was applied to the analysis to dissect the factors contributing to the modulation effects of trial type probabilities. Our results suggest that the trial type probability is one robust determinant of antisaccade cost. These findings highlight the importance of implicit probability in the flexibility of cognitive control of behavior. PMID:21543748

Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Acacio de Barros, J.

2012-01-01

In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)

2012-12-18

In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

2007-01-01

Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

Selected papers on probability and statistics

CERN Document Server

2009-01-01

This volume contains translations of papers that originally appeared in the Japanese journal Sūgaku. The papers range over a variety of topics in probability theory, statistics, and applications. This volume is suitable for graduate students and research mathematicians interested in probability and statistics.

Probability of Grounding and Collision Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

1996-01-01

To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents are developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences can be analysed and assessed. The presnt paper outlines a method for evaluation of the probability of ship...

Probability of Grounding and Collision Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

1996-01-01

To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents have to be developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences have to be analyzed and assessed.The present notes outline a method for evaluation of the probability...

Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation...

47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be...

Orthogonal Algorithm of Logic Probability and Syndrome-Testable Analysis

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

1990-01-01

A new method,orthogonal algoritm,is presented to compute the logic probabilities(i.e.signal probabilities)accurately,The transfer properties of logic probabilities are studied first,which are useful for the calculation of logic probability of the circuit with random independent inputs.Then the orthogonal algoritm is described to compute the logic probability of Boolean function realized by a combinational circuit.This algorithm can make Boolean function “ORTHOGONAL”so that the logic probabilities can be easily calculated by summing up the logic probabilities of all orthogonal terms of the Booleam function.

Probability sampling in legal cases: Kansas cellphone users

Science.gov (United States)

Kadane, Joseph B.

2012-10-01

Probability sampling is a standard statistical technique. This article introduces the basic ideas of probability sampling, and shows in detail how probability sampling was used in a particular legal case.

Effects of NMDA receptor antagonists on probability discounting depend on the order of probability presentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Yates, Justin R; Breitenstein, Kerry A; Gunkel, Benjamin T; Hughes, Mallory N; Johnson, Anthony B; Rogers, Katherine K; Shape, Sara M

Risky decision making can be measured using a probability-discounting procedure, in which animals choose between a small, certain reinforcer and a large, uncertain reinforcer. Recent evidence has identified glutamate as a mediator of risky decision making, as blocking the N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptor with MK-801 increases preference for a large, uncertain reinforcer. Because the order in which probabilities associated with the large reinforcer can modulate the effects of drugs on choice, the current study determined if NMDA receptor ligands alter probability discounting using ascending and descending schedules. Sixteen rats were trained in a probability-discounting procedure in which the odds against obtaining the large reinforcer increased (n=8) or decreased (n=8) across blocks of trials. Following behavioral training, rats received treatments of the NMDA receptor ligands MK-801 (uncompetitive antagonist; 0, 0.003, 0.01, or 0.03mg/kg), ketamine (uncompetitive antagonist; 0, 1.0, 5.0, or 10.0mg/kg), and ifenprodil (NR2B-selective non-competitive antagonist; 0, 1.0, 3.0, or 10.0mg/kg). Results showed discounting was steeper (indicating increased risk aversion) for rats on an ascending schedule relative to rats on the descending schedule. Furthermore, the effects of MK-801, ketamine, and ifenprodil on discounting were dependent on the schedule used. Specifically, the highest dose of each drug decreased risk taking in rats in the descending schedule, but only MK-801 (0.03mg/kg) increased risk taking in rats on an ascending schedule. These results show that probability presentation order modulates the effects of NMDA receptor ligands on risky decision making. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expert estimation of human error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations: a review of probability assessment and scaling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stillwell, W.G.; Seaver, D.A.; Schwartz, J.P.

1982-05-01

This report reviews probability assessment and psychological scaling techniques that could be used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. The techniques rely on expert opinion and can be used to estimate HEPs where data do not exist or are inadequate. These techniques have been used in various other contexts and have been shown to produce reasonably accurate probabilities. Some problems do exist, and limitations are discussed. Additional topics covered include methods for combining estimates from multiple experts, the effects of training on probability estimates, and some ideas on structuring the relationship between performance shaping factors and HEPs. Preliminary recommendations are provided along with cautions regarding the costs of implementing the recommendations. Additional research is required before definitive recommendations can be made

Stimulus Probability Effects in Absolute Identification

Science.gov (United States)

Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen

2016-01-01

This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an absolute identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of…

Probability numeracy and health insurance purchase

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dillingh, Rik; Kooreman, Peter; Potters, Jan

2016-01-01

This paper provides new field evidence on the role of probability numeracy in health insurance purchase. Our regression results, based on rich survey panel data, indicate that the expenditure on two out of three measures of health insurance first rises with probability numeracy and then falls again.

Convergence of Transition Probability Matrix in CLVMarkov Models

Science.gov (United States)

Permana, D.; Pasaribu, U. S.; Indratno, S. W.; Suprayogi, S.

2018-04-01

A transition probability matrix is an arrangement of transition probability from one states to another in a Markov chain model (MCM). One of interesting study on the MCM is its behavior for a long time in the future. The behavior is derived from one property of transition probabilty matrix for n steps. This term is called the convergence of the n-step transition matrix for n move to infinity. Mathematically, the convergence of the transition probability matrix is finding the limit of the transition matrix which is powered by n where n moves to infinity. The convergence form of the transition probability matrix is very interesting as it will bring the matrix to its stationary form. This form is useful for predicting the probability of transitions between states in the future. The method usually used to find the convergence of transition probability matrix is through the process of limiting the distribution. In this paper, the convergence of the transition probability matrix is searched using a simple concept of linear algebra that is by diagonalizing the matrix.This method has a higher level of complexity because it has to perform the process of diagonalization in its matrix. But this way has the advantage of obtaining a common form of power n of the transition probability matrix. This form is useful to see transition matrix before stationary. For example cases are taken from CLV model using MCM called Model of CLV-Markov. There are several models taken by its transition probability matrix to find its convergence form. The result is that the convergence of the matrix of transition probability through diagonalization has similarity with convergence with commonly used distribution of probability limiting method.

Probability Theory Plus Noise: Descriptive Estimation and Inferential Judgment.

Science.gov (United States)

Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

2018-01-01

We describe a computational model of two central aspects of people's probabilistic reasoning: descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model assumes that people's reasoning follows standard frequentist probability theory, but it is subject to random noise. This random noise has a regressive effect in descriptive probability estimation, moving probability estimates away from normative probabilities and toward the center of the probability scale. This random noise has an anti-regressive effect in inferential judgement, however. These regressive and anti-regressive effects explain various reliable and systematic biases seen in people's descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model predicts that these contrary effects will tend to cancel out in tasks that involve both descriptive estimation and inferential judgement, leading to unbiased responses in those tasks. We test this model by applying it to one such task, described by Gallistel et al. ). Participants' median responses in this task were unbiased, agreeing with normative probability theory over the full range of responses. Our model captures the pattern of unbiased responses in this task, while simultaneously explaining systematic biases away from normatively correct probabilities seen in other tasks. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

Optimizing Probability of Detection Point Estimate Demonstration

Science.gov (United States)

Koshti, Ajay M.

2017-01-01

Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.

Some open problems in noncommutative probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kruszynski, P.

1981-01-01

A generalization of probability measures to non-Boolean structures is discussed. The starting point of the theory is the Gleason theorem about the form of measures on closed subspaces of a Hilbert space. The problems are formulated in terms of probability on lattices of projections in arbitrary von Neumann algebras. (Auth.)

Counterexamples in probability

CERN Document Server

Stoyanov, Jordan M

2013-01-01

While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.

On the shake-off probability for atomic systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santos, A.C.F., E-mail: toniufrj@gmail.com [Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, P.O. Box 68528, 21941-972 Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Almeida, D.P. [Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, 88040-900 Florianópolis (Brazil)

2016-07-15

Highlights: • The scope is to find the relationship among SO probabilities, Z and electron density. • A scaling law is suggested, allowing us to find the SO probabilities for atoms. • SO probabilities have been scaled as a function of target Z and polarizability. - Abstract: The main scope in this work has been upon the relationship between shake-off probabilities, target atomic number and electron density. By comparing the saturation values of measured double-to-single photoionization ratios from the literature, a simple scaling law has been found, which allows us to predict the shake-off probabilities for several elements up to Z = 54 within a factor 2. The electron shake-off probabilities accompanying valence shell photoionization have been scaled as a function of the target atomic number, Z, and polarizability, α. This behavior is in qualitative agreement with the experimental results.

Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing

Science.gov (United States)

Zak, M.

1996-01-01

It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

Probability theory a foundational course

CERN Document Server

Pakshirajan, R P

2013-01-01

This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.

Epistemology and Probability

CERN Document Server

Plotnitsky, Arkady

2010-01-01

Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general

Analytic Neutrino Oscillation Probabilities in Matter: Revisited

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parke, Stephen J. [Fermilab; Denton, Peter B. [Copenhagen U.; Minakata, Hisakazu [Madrid, IFT

2018-01-02

We summarize our recent paper on neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter, explaining the importance, relevance and need for simple, highly accurate approximations to the neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter.

The estimation of small probabilities and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalbfleisch, J.D.; Lawless, J.F.; MacKay, R.J.

1982-01-01

The primary contribution of statistics to risk assessment is in the estimation of probabilities. Frequently the probabilities in question are small, and their estimation is particularly difficult. The authors consider three examples illustrating some problems inherent in the estimation of small probabilities

Probability Weighting and Loss Aversion in Futures Hedging

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mattos, F.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

2008-01-01

We analyze how the introduction of probability weighting and loss aversion in a futures hedging model affects decision making. Analytical findings indicate that probability weighting alone always affects optimal hedge ratios, while loss and risk aversion only have an impact when probability

Probability theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Hsu, Elton P

1999-01-01

This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.

Waste Package Misload Probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knudsen, J.K.

2001-01-01

The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a

Concept of probability in statistical physics

CERN Document Server

Guttmann, Y M

1999-01-01

Foundational issues in statistical mechanics and the more general question of how probability is to be understood in the context of physical theories are both areas that have been neglected by philosophers of physics. This book fills an important gap in the literature by providing a most systematic study of how to interpret probabilistic assertions in the context of statistical mechanics. The book explores both subjectivist and objectivist accounts of probability, and takes full measure of work in the foundations of probability theory, in statistical mechanics, and in mathematical theory. It will be of particular interest to philosophers of science, physicists and mathematicians interested in foundational issues, and also to historians of science.

Maximum Entropy and Probability Kinematics Constrained by Conditionals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Lukits

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Two open questions of inductive reasoning are solved: (1 does the principle of maximum entropy (PME give a solution to the obverse Majerník problem; and (2 isWagner correct when he claims that Jeffrey’s updating principle (JUP contradicts PME? Majerník shows that PME provides unique and plausible marginal probabilities, given conditional probabilities. The obverse problem posed here is whether PME also provides such conditional probabilities, given certain marginal probabilities. The theorem developed to solve the obverse Majerník problem demonstrates that in the special case introduced by Wagner PME does not contradict JUP, but elegantly generalizes it and offers a more integrated approach to probability updating.

Determining probabilities of geologic events and processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunter, R.L.; Mann, C.J.; Cranwell, R.M.

1985-01-01

The Environmental Protection Agency has recently published a probabilistic standard for releases of high-level radioactive waste from a mined geologic repository. The standard sets limits for contaminant releases with more than one chance in 100 of occurring within 10,000 years, and less strict limits for releases of lower probability. The standard offers no methods for determining probabilities of geologic events and processes, and no consensus exists in the waste-management community on how to do this. Sandia National Laboratories is developing a general method for determining probabilities of a given set of geologic events and processes. In addition, we will develop a repeatable method for dealing with events and processes whose probability cannot be determined. 22 refs., 4 figs

Probability and statistics with integrated software routines

CERN Document Server

Deep, Ronald

2005-01-01

Probability & Statistics with Integrated Software Routines is a calculus-based treatment of probability concurrent with and integrated with statistics through interactive, tailored software applications designed to enhance the phenomena of probability and statistics. The software programs make the book unique.The book comes with a CD containing the interactive software leading to the Statistical Genie. The student can issue commands repeatedly while making parameter changes to observe the effects. Computer programming is an excellent skill for problem solvers, involving design, prototyping, data gathering, testing, redesign, validating, etc, all wrapped up in the scientific method.See also: CD to accompany Probability and Stats with Integrated Software Routines (0123694698)* Incorporates more than 1,000 engaging problems with answers* Includes more than 300 solved examples* Uses varied problem solving methods

Random phenomena fundamentals of probability and statistics for engineers

CERN Document Server

Ogunnaike, Babatunde A

2009-01-01

PreludeApproach PhilosophyFour Basic PrinciplesI FoundationsTwo Motivating ExamplesYield Improvement in a Chemical ProcessQuality Assurance in a Glass Sheet Manufacturing ProcessOutline of a Systematic ApproachRandom Phenomena, Variability, and UncertaintyTwo Extreme Idealizations of Natural PhenomenaRandom Mass PhenomenaIntroducing ProbabilityThe Probabilistic FrameworkII ProbabilityFundamentals of Probability TheoryBuilding BlocksOperationsProbabilityConditional ProbabilityIndependenceRandom Variables and DistributionsDistributionsMathematical ExpectationCharacterizing DistributionsSpecial Derived Probability FunctionsMultidimensional Random VariablesDistributions of Several Random VariablesDistributional Characteristics of Jointly Distributed Random VariablesRandom Variable TransformationsSingle Variable TransformationsBivariate TransformationsGeneral Multivariate TransformationsApplication Case Studies I: ProbabilityMendel and HeredityWorld War II Warship Tactical Response Under AttackIII DistributionsIde...

Examples of Neutrosophic Probability in Physics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fu Yuhua

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper re-discusses the problems of the so-called “law of nonconservation of parity” and “accelerating expansion of the universe”, and presents the examples of determining Neutrosophic Probability of the experiment of Chien-Shiung Wu et al in 1957, and determining Neutrosophic Probability of accelerating expansion of the partial universe.

Probability elements of the mathematical theory

CERN Document Server

Heathcote, C R

2000-01-01

Designed for students studying mathematical statistics and probability after completing a course in calculus and real variables, this text deals with basic notions of probability spaces, random variables, distribution functions and generating functions, as well as joint distributions and the convergence properties of sequences of random variables. Includes worked examples and over 250 exercises with solutions.

Electrofishing capture probability of smallmouth bass in streams

Science.gov (United States)

Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.

2007-01-01

Abundance estimation is an integral part of understanding the ecology and advancing the management of fish populations and communities. Mark-recapture and removal methods are commonly used to estimate the abundance of stream fishes. Alternatively, abundance can be estimated by dividing the number of individuals sampled by the probability of capture. We conducted a mark-recapture study and used multiple repeated-measures logistic regression to determine the influence of fish size, sampling procedures, and stream habitat variables on the cumulative capture probability for smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in two eastern Oklahoma streams. The predicted capture probability was used to adjust the number of individuals sampled to obtain abundance estimates. The observed capture probabilities were higher for larger fish and decreased with successive electrofishing passes for larger fish only. Model selection suggested that the number of electrofishing passes, fish length, and mean thalweg depth affected capture probabilities the most; there was little evidence for any effect of electrofishing power density and woody debris density on capture probability. Leave-one-out cross validation showed that the cumulative capture probability model predicts smallmouth abundance accurately. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

On the Hitting Probability of Max-Stable Processes

OpenAIRE

Hofmann, Martin

2012-01-01

The probability that a max-stable process {\\eta} in C[0, 1] with identical marginal distribution function F hits x \\in R with 0 < F (x) < 1 is the hitting probability of x. We show that the hitting probability is always positive, unless the components of {\\eta} are completely dependent. Moreover, we consider the event that the paths of standard MSP hit some x \\in R twice and we give a sufficient condition for a positive probability of this event.

Risk estimation using probability machines

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

Fixation Probability in a Haploid-Diploid Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Bessho, Kazuhiro; Otto, Sarah P

2017-01-01

Classical population genetic theory generally assumes either a fully haploid or fully diploid life cycle. However, many organisms exhibit more complex life cycles, with both free-living haploid and diploid stages. Here we ask what the probability of fixation is for selected alleles in organisms with haploid-diploid life cycles. We develop a genetic model that considers the population dynamics using both the Moran model and Wright-Fisher model. Applying a branching process approximation, we obtain an accurate fixation probability assuming that the population is large and the net effect of the mutation is beneficial. We also find the diffusion approximation for the fixation probability, which is accurate even in small populations and for deleterious alleles, as long as selection is weak. These fixation probabilities from branching process and diffusion approximations are similar when selection is weak for beneficial mutations that are not fully recessive. In many cases, particularly when one phase predominates, the fixation probability differs substantially for haploid-diploid organisms compared to either fully haploid or diploid species. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Causal inference, probability theory, and graphical insights.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Stuart G

2013-11-10

Causal inference from observational studies is a fundamental topic in biostatistics. The causal graph literature typically views probability theory as insufficient to express causal concepts in observational studies. In contrast, the view here is that probability theory is a desirable and sufficient basis for many topics in causal inference for the following two reasons. First, probability theory is generally more flexible than causal graphs: Besides explaining such causal graph topics as M-bias (adjusting for a collider) and bias amplification and attenuation (when adjusting for instrumental variable), probability theory is also the foundation of the paired availability design for historical controls, which does not fit into a causal graph framework. Second, probability theory is the basis for insightful graphical displays including the BK-Plot for understanding Simpson's paradox with a binary confounder, the BK2-Plot for understanding bias amplification and attenuation in the presence of an unobserved binary confounder, and the PAD-Plot for understanding the principal stratification component of the paired availability design. Published 2013. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Chance, determinism and the classical theory of probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Vasudevan, Anubav

2018-02-01

This paper situates the metaphysical antinomy between chance and determinism in the historical context of some of the earliest developments in the mathematical theory of probability. Since Hacking's seminal work on the subject, it has been a widely held view that the classical theorists of probability were guilty of an unwitting equivocation between a subjective, or epistemic, interpretation of probability, on the one hand, and an objective, or statistical, interpretation, on the other. While there is some truth to this account, I argue that the tension at the heart of the classical theory of probability is not best understood in terms of the duality between subjective and objective interpretations of probability. Rather, the apparent paradox of chance and determinism, when viewed through the lens of the classical theory of probability, manifests itself in a much deeper ambivalence on the part of the classical probabilists as to the rational commensurability of causal and probabilistic reasoning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probability, statistics, and queueing theory

CERN Document Server

Allen, Arnold O

1990-01-01

This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit

Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

CERN Document Server

Olofsson, Peter

2011-01-01

A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d

Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...... in these respects. Interviews with Nick Bingham, Luc Bovens, Terrence L. Fine, Haim Gaifman, Donald Gillies, James Hawthorne, Carl Hoefer, James M. Joyce, Joseph B. Kadane Isaac Levi, D.H. Mellor, Patrick Suppes, Jan von Plato, Carl Wagner, Sandy Zabell...

14 CFR 417.224 - Probability of failure analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Probability of failure analysis. 417.224..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.224 Probability of failure..., must account for launch vehicle failure probability in a consistent manner. A launch vehicle failure...

Students' Understanding of Conditional Probability on Entering University

Science.gov (United States)

Reaburn, Robyn

2013-01-01

An understanding of conditional probability is essential for students of inferential statistics as it is used in Null Hypothesis Tests. Conditional probability is also used in Bayes' theorem, in the interpretation of medical screening tests and in quality control procedures. This study examines the understanding of conditional probability of…

Elements of probability and statistics an introduction to probability with De Finetti’s approach and to Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

Biagini, Francesca

2016-01-01

This book provides an introduction to elementary probability and to Bayesian statistics using de Finetti's subjectivist approach. One of the features of this approach is that it does not require the introduction of sample space – a non-intrinsic concept that makes the treatment of elementary probability unnecessarily complicate – but introduces as fundamental the concept of random numbers directly related to their interpretation in applications. Events become a particular case of random numbers and probability a particular case of expectation when it is applied to events. The subjective evaluation of expectation and of conditional expectation is based on an economic choice of an acceptable bet or penalty. The properties of expectation and conditional expectation are derived by applying a coherence criterion that the evaluation has to follow. The book is suitable for all introductory courses in probability and statistics for students in Mathematics, Informatics, Engineering, and Physics.

The collision probability modules of WIMS-E

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roth, M.J.

1985-04-01

This report describes how flat source first flight collision probabilities are calculated and used in the WIMS-E modular program. It includes a description of the input to the modules W-FLU, W-THES, W-PIP, W-PERS and W-MERGE. Input to other collision probability modules are described in separate reports. WIMS-E is capable of calculating collision probabilities in a wide variety of geometries, some of them quite complicated. It can also use them for a variety of purposes. (author)

Sectio og Brugadas syndrom

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ammundsen, Henriette Berg; Ekelund, Kim; Afshari, Arash

2016-01-01

to induce fatal arrhythmias in patients with BS and in particular sodium channel blockers i.e. local anaesthetics such as bupivacaine. We report the anaesthetic management of two women with BS during caesarean section and provide a general discussion on the use of bupivacain for neuraxial blockade...

Fixation probability on clique-based graphs

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Jeong-Ok; Yu, Unjong

2018-02-01

The fixation probability of a mutant in the evolutionary dynamics of Moran process is calculated by the Monte-Carlo method on a few families of clique-based graphs. It is shown that the complete suppression of fixation can be realized with the generalized clique-wheel graph in the limit of small wheel-clique ratio and infinite size. The family of clique-star is an amplifier, and clique-arms graph changes from amplifier to suppressor as the fitness of the mutant increases. We demonstrate that the overall structure of a graph can be more important to determine the fixation probability than the degree or the heat heterogeneity. The dependence of the fixation probability on the position of the first mutant is discussed.

Correlations and Non-Linear Probability Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Breen, Richard; Holm, Anders; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

2014-01-01

the dependent variable of the latent variable model and its predictor variables. We show how this correlation can be derived from the parameters of non-linear probability models, develop tests for the statistical significance of the derived correlation, and illustrate its usefulness in two applications. Under......Although the parameters of logit and probit and other non-linear probability models are often explained and interpreted in relation to the regression coefficients of an underlying linear latent variable model, we argue that they may also be usefully interpreted in terms of the correlations between...... certain circumstances, which we explain, the derived correlation provides a way of overcoming the problems inherent in cross-sample comparisons of the parameters of non-linear probability models....

Paradoxes in probability theory

CERN Document Server

Eckhardt, William

2013-01-01

Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

Probabilities the little numbers that rule our lives

CERN Document Server

Olofsson, Peter

2014-01-01

Praise for the First Edition"If there is anything you want to know, or remind yourself, about probabilities, then look no further than this comprehensive, yet wittily written and enjoyable, compendium of how to apply probability calculations in real-world situations."- Keith Devlin, Stanford University, National Public Radio's "Math Guy" and author of The Math Gene and The Unfinished GameFrom probable improbabilities to regular irregularities, Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives, Second Edition investigates the often surprising effects of risk and chance in our lives. Featur

Probability and Statistical Inference

OpenAIRE

Prosper, Harrison B.

2006-01-01

These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

Crash probability estimation via quantifying driver hazard perception.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yang; Zheng, Yang; Wang, Jianqiang; Kodaka, Kenji; Li, Keqiang

2018-07-01

Crash probability estimation is an important method to predict the potential reduction of crash probability contributed by forward collision avoidance technologies (FCATs). In this study, we propose a practical approach to estimate crash probability, which combines a field operational test and numerical simulations of a typical rear-end crash model. To consider driver hazard perception characteristics, we define a novel hazard perception measure, called as driver risk response time, by considering both time-to-collision (TTC) and driver braking response to impending collision risk in a near-crash scenario. Also, we establish a driving database under mixed Chinese traffic conditions based on a CMBS (Collision Mitigation Braking Systems)-equipped vehicle. Applying the crash probability estimation in this database, we estimate the potential decrease in crash probability owing to use of CMBS. A comparison of the results with CMBS on and off shows a 13.7% reduction of crash probability in a typical rear-end near-crash scenario with a one-second delay of driver's braking response. These results indicate that CMBS is positive in collision prevention, especially in the case of inattentive drivers or ole drivers. The proposed crash probability estimation offers a practical way for evaluating the safety benefits in the design and testing of FCATs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Escape probabilities for fluorescent x-rays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dance, D.R.; Day, G.J.

1985-01-01

Computation of the energy absorption efficiency of an x-ray photon detector involves consideration of the histories of the secondary particles produced in any initial or secondary interaction which may occur within the detector. In particular, the K or higher shell fluorescent x-rays which may be emitted following a photoelectric interaction can carry away a large fraction of the energy of the incident photon, especially if this energy is just above an absorption edge. The effects of such photons cannot be ignored and a correction term, depending upon the probability that the fluorescent x-rays will escape from the detector, must be applied to the energy absorption efficiency. For detectors such as x-ray intensifying screens, it has been usual to calculate this probability by numerical integration. In this note analytic expressions are derived for the escape probability of fluorescent photons from planar detectors in terms of exponential integral functions. Rational approximations for these functions are readily available and these analytic expressions therefore facilitate the computation of photon absorption efficiencies. A table is presented which should obviate the need for calculating the escape probability for most cases of interest. (author)

Concepts of probability theory

CERN Document Server

Pfeiffer, Paul E

1979-01-01

Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.

Einstein unmasked

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, Brian

2008-09-01

This is a remarkable and, at times, bewilderingly diverse volume. Consisting of 20 essays that represent the proceedings of a conference held in 2005 in Berlin, Germany, during the International Year of Physics, it offers insights into Einstein's influence on a swathe of human activity. In the introduction the distinguished editors make some remarkable claims for the book, calling it "an unique attempt" and saying that "there is no better introduction to...string theory", while the first essay states "Not since Newton's Principia..." Clearly this is a volume that aspires to high standards.

Dependency models and probability of joint events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oerjasaeter, O.

1982-08-01

Probabilistic dependencies between components/systems are discussed with reference to a broad classification of potential failure mechanisms. Further, a generalized time-dependency model, based on conditional probabilities for estimation of the probability of joint events and event sequences is described. The applicability of this model is clarified/demonstrated by various examples. It is concluded that the described model of dependency is a useful tool for solving a variety of practical problems concerning the probability of joint events and event sequences where common cause and time-dependent failure mechanisms are involved. (Auth.)

Probability shapes perceptual precision: A study in orientation estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jabar, Syaheed B; Anderson, Britt

2015-12-01

Probability is known to affect perceptual estimations, but an understanding of mechanisms is lacking. Moving beyond binary classification tasks, we had naive participants report the orientation of briefly viewed gratings where we systematically manipulated contingent probability. Participants rapidly developed faster and more precise estimations for high-probability tilts. The shapes of their error distributions, as indexed by a kurtosis measure, also showed a distortion from Gaussian. This kurtosis metric was robust, capturing probability effects that were graded, contextual, and varying as a function of stimulus orientation. Our data can be understood as a probability-induced reduction in the variability or "shape" of estimation errors, as would be expected if probability affects the perceptual representations. As probability manipulations are an implicit component of many endogenous cuing paradigms, changes at the perceptual level could account for changes in performance that might have traditionally been ascribed to "attention." (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, R.L.

1994-01-01

Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

The theoretical literature has a rich characterization of scoring rules for eliciting the subjective beliefs that an individual has for continuous events, but under the restrictive assumption of risk neutrality. It is well known that risk aversion can dramatically affect the incentives to correctly...... report the true subjective probability of a binary event, even under Subjective Expected Utility. To address this one can “calibrate” inferences about true subjective probabilities from elicited subjective probabilities over binary events, recognizing the incentives that risk averse agents have...... to distort reports. We characterize the comparable implications of the general case of a risk averse agent when facing a popular scoring rule over continuous events, and find that these concerns do not apply with anything like the same force. For empirically plausible levels of risk aversion, one can...

The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, Colin

2012-01-01

This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

A discussion on the origin of quantum probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holik, Federico; Sáenz, Manuel; Plastino, Angel

2014-01-01

We study the origin of quantum probabilities as arising from non-Boolean propositional-operational structures. We apply the method developed by Cox to non distributive lattices and develop an alternative formulation of non-Kolmogorovian probability measures for quantum mechanics. By generalizing the method presented in previous works, we outline a general framework for the deduction of probabilities in general propositional structures represented by lattices (including the non-distributive case). -- Highlights: •Several recent works use a derivation similar to that of R.T. Cox to obtain quantum probabilities. •We apply Cox’s method to the lattice of subspaces of the Hilbert space. •We obtain a derivation of quantum probabilities which includes mixed states. •The method presented in this work is susceptible to generalization. •It includes quantum mechanics and classical mechanics as particular cases

More efficient integrated safeguards by applying a reasonable detection probability for maintaining low presence probability of undetected nuclear proliferating activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otsuka, Naoto

2013-01-01

Highlights: • A theoretical foundation is presented for more efficient Integrated Safeguards (IS). • Probability of undetected nuclear proliferation activities should be maintained low. • For nations under IS, the probability to start proliferation activities is very low. • The fact can decrease the detection probability of IS by dozens of percentage points. • The cost of IS per nation can be cut down by reducing inspection frequencies etc. - Abstract: A theoretical foundation is presented for implementing more efficiently the present International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) integrated safeguards (ISs) on the basis of fuzzy evaluation of the probability that the evaluated nation will continue peaceful activities. It is shown that by determining the presence probability of undetected nuclear proliferating activities, nations under IS can be maintained at acceptably low proliferation risk levels even if the detection probability of current IS is decreased by dozens of percentage from the present value. This makes it possible to reduce inspection frequency and the number of collected samples, allowing the IAEA to cut costs per nation. This will contribute to further promotion and application of IS to more nations by the IAEA, and more efficient utilization of IAEA resources from the viewpoint of whole IS framework

Single Trial Probability Applications: Can Subjectivity Evade Frequency Limitations?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Howden

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Frequency probability theorists define an event’s probability distribution as the limit of a repeated set of trials belonging to a homogeneous collective. The subsets of this collective are events which we have deficient knowledge about on an individual level, although for the larger collective we have knowledge its aggregate behavior. Hence, probabilities can only be achieved through repeated trials of these subsets arriving at the established frequencies that define the probabilities. Crovelli (2009 argues that this is a mistaken approach, and that a subjective assessment of individual trials should be used instead. Bifurcating between the two concepts of risk and uncertainty, Crovelli first asserts that probability is the tool used to manage uncertain situations, and then attempts to rebuild a definition of probability theory with this in mind. We show that such an attempt has little to gain, and results in an indeterminate application of entrepreneurial forecasting to uncertain decisions—a process far-removed from any application of probability theory.

Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability by Direct Binomial Regression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard......Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard...

Subjective Probabilities for State-Dependent Continuous Utility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.P. Wakker (Peter)

1987-01-01

textabstractFor the expected utility model with state dependent utilities, Karni, Schmeidler and Vind (1983) have shown how to recover uniquely the involved subjective probabilities if the preferences, contingent on a hypothetical probability distribution over the state space, are known. This they

Surprisingly rational: probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment.

Science.gov (United States)

Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

2014-07-01

The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not use the rules of probability theory when reasoning about probability but instead use heuristics, which sometimes yield reasonable judgments and sometimes yield systematic biases. This view has had a major impact in economics, law, medicine, and other fields; indeed, the idea that people cannot reason with probabilities has become a truism. We present a simple alternative to this view, where people reason about probability according to probability theory but are subject to random variation or noise in the reasoning process. In this account the effect of noise is canceled for some probabilistic expressions. Analyzing data from 2 experiments, we find that, for these expressions, people's probability judgments are strikingly close to those required by probability theory. For other expressions, this account produces systematic deviations in probability estimates. These deviations explain 4 reliable biases in human probabilistic reasoning (conservatism, subadditivity, conjunction, and disjunction fallacies). These results suggest that people's probability judgments embody the rules of probability theory and that biases in those judgments are due to the effects of random noise. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Eruption probabilities for the Lassen Volcanic Center and regional volcanism, northern California, and probabilities for large explosive eruptions in the Cascade Range

Science.gov (United States)

Nathenson, Manuel; Clynne, Michael A.; Muffler, L.J. Patrick

2012-01-01

Chronologies for eruptive activity of the Lassen Volcanic Center and for eruptions from the regional mafic vents in the surrounding area of the Lassen segment of the Cascade Range are here used to estimate probabilities of future eruptions. For the regional mafic volcanism, the ages of many vents are known only within broad ranges, and two models are developed that should bracket the actual eruptive ages. These chronologies are used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to match the data for time intervals between eruptions. For the Lassen Volcanic Center, the probability of an eruption in the next year is 1.4x10-4 for the exponential distribution and 2.3x10-4 for the mixed exponential distribution. For the regional mafic vents, the exponential distribution gives a probability of an eruption in the next year of 6.5x10-4, but the mixed exponential distribution indicates that the current probability, 12,000 years after the last event, could be significantly lower. For the exponential distribution, the highest probability is for an eruption from a regional mafic vent. Data on areas and volumes of lava flows and domes of the Lassen Volcanic Center and of eruptions from the regional mafic vents provide constraints on the probable sizes of future eruptions. Probabilities of lava-flow coverage are similar for the Lassen Volcanic Center and for regional mafic vents, whereas the probable eruptive volumes for the mafic vents are generally smaller. Data have been compiled for large explosive eruptions (>≈ 5 km3 in deposit volume) in the Cascade Range during the past 1.2 m.y. in order to estimate probabilities of eruption. For erupted volumes >≈5 km3, the rate of occurrence since 13.6 ka is much higher than for the entire period, and we use these data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption at 4.6x10-4. For erupted volumes ≥10 km3, the rate of occurrence has been reasonably constant from 630 ka to the present, giving

Predicting binary choices from probability phrase meanings.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallsten, Thomas S; Jang, Yoonhee

2008-08-01

The issues of how individuals decide which of two events is more likely and of how they understand probability phrases both involve judging relative likelihoods. In this study, we investigated whether derived scales representing probability phrase meanings could be used within a choice model to predict independently observed binary choices. If they can, this simultaneously provides support for our model and suggests that the phrase meanings are measured meaningfully. The model assumes that, when deciding which of two events is more likely, judges take a single sample from memory regarding each event and respond accordingly. The model predicts choice probabilities by using the scaled meanings of individually selected probability phrases as proxies for confidence distributions associated with sampling from memory. Predictions are sustained for 34 of 41 participants but, nevertheless, are biased slightly low. Sequential sampling models improve the fit. The results have both theoretical and applied implications.

Transition probabilities for atoms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Y.K.

1980-01-01

Current status of advanced theoretical methods for transition probabilities for atoms and ions is discussed. An experiment on the f values of the resonance transitions of the Kr and Xe isoelectronic sequences is suggested as a test for the theoretical methods

Early repolarisation and J wave syndromes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kamal K. Sethi

2014-07-01

Full Text Available J wave syndrome has emerged as a significant cause of Idiopathic ventricular fibrillation (IVF responsible for sudden cardiac death. A large body of data is now available on genesis, genetics and ionic mechanisms of J wave syndromes. Two of these viz., Early repolarization syndrome (ER and Brugada syndrome (BrS are fairly well characterized enabling correct diagnosis in most patients. The first part of repolarization of ventricular myocardium is governed by Ito current i.e., rapid outward potassium current. The proposed mechanism of ventricular fibrillation (VF and ventricular tachycardia (VT storms is the faster Ito current in the epicardium than in the endocardium results in electrical gradient that forms the substrate for phase 2 reentry. Prevention of Ito current with quinidine supports this mechanism. Majority of ER patterns in young patients are benign. The key issue is to identify those at increased risk of sudden cardiac death. Association of both ER syndrome and Brugada syndrome with other disease states like coronary artery disease has also been reported. Individuals resuscitated from VF definitely need an implantable cardiac defibrillator (ICD but in others there is no consensus regarding therapy. Role of electrophysiology study to provoke ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation is not yet well defined. Radiofrequency ablation of epicardial substrate in right ventricle in Brugada syndrome is also under critical evaluation. In this review we shall discuss historical features, epidemiology, electrocardiographic features, ionic pathogenesis, clinical features and current status of proposed treatment of ER and BrS.

The transition probabilities of the reciprocity model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Snijders, T.A.B.

1999-01-01

The reciprocity model is a continuous-time Markov chain model used for modeling longitudinal network data. A new explicit expression is derived for its transition probability matrix. This expression can be checked relatively easily. Some properties of the transition probabilities are given, as well

Hamiltonian theories quantization based on a probability operator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Entral'go, E.E.

1986-01-01

The quantization method with a linear reflection of classical coordinate-momentum-time functions Λ(q,p,t) at quantum operators in a space of quantum states ψ, is considered. The probability operator satisfies a system of equations representing the principles of dynamical and canonical correspondences between the classical and quantum theories. The quantization based on a probability operator leads to a quantum theory with a nonnegative joint coordinate-momentum distribution function for any state ψ. The main consequences of quantum mechanics with a probability operator are discussed in comparison with the generally accepted quantum and classical theories. It is shown that a probability operator leads to an appearance of some new notions called ''subquantum'' ones. Hence the quantum theory with a probability operator does not pretend to any complete description of physical reality in terms of classical variables and by this reason contains no problems like Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox. The results of some concrete problems are given: a free particle, a harmonic oscillator, an electron in the Coulomb field. These results give hope on the possibility of an experimental verification of the quantization based on a probability operator

Fitness Probability Distribution of Bit-Flip Mutation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chicano, Francisco; Sutton, Andrew M; Whitley, L Darrell; Alba, Enrique

2015-01-01

Bit-flip mutation is a common mutation operator for evolutionary algorithms applied to optimize functions over binary strings. In this paper, we develop results from the theory of landscapes and Krawtchouk polynomials to exactly compute the probability distribution of fitness values of a binary string undergoing uniform bit-flip mutation. We prove that this probability distribution can be expressed as a polynomial in p, the probability of flipping each bit. We analyze these polynomials and provide closed-form expressions for an easy linear problem (Onemax), and an NP-hard problem, MAX-SAT. We also discuss a connection of the results with runtime analysis.

Comparing linear probability model coefficients across groups

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Anders; Ejrnæs, Mette; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

2015-01-01

of the following three components: outcome truncation, scale parameters and distributional shape of the predictor variable. These results point to limitations in using linear probability model coefficients for group comparisons. We also provide Monte Carlo simulations and real examples to illustrate......This article offers a formal identification analysis of the problem in comparing coefficients from linear probability models between groups. We show that differences in coefficients from these models can result not only from genuine differences in effects, but also from differences in one or more...... these limitations, and we suggest a restricted approach to using linear probability model coefficients in group comparisons....

Modeling experiments using quantum and Kolmogorov probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hess, Karl

2008-01-01

Criteria are presented that permit a straightforward partition of experiments into sets that can be modeled using both quantum probability and the classical probability framework of Kolmogorov. These new criteria concentrate on the operational aspects of the experiments and lead beyond the commonly appreciated partition by relating experiments to commuting and non-commuting quantum operators as well as non-entangled and entangled wavefunctions. In other words the space of experiments that can be understood using classical probability is larger than usually assumed. This knowledge provides advantages for areas such as nanoscience and engineering or quantum computation.

Probability calculations for three-part mineral resource assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Ellefsen, Karl J.

2017-06-27

Three-part mineral resource assessment is a methodology for predicting, in a specified geographic region, both the number of undiscovered mineral deposits and the amount of mineral resources in those deposits. These predictions are based on probability calculations that are performed with computer software that is newly implemented. Compared to the previous implementation, the new implementation includes new features for the probability calculations themselves and for checks of those calculations. The development of the new implementation lead to a new understanding of the probability calculations, namely the assumptions inherent in the probability calculations. Several assumptions strongly affect the mineral resource predictions, so it is crucial that they are checked during an assessment. The evaluation of the new implementation leads to new findings about the probability calculations,namely findings regarding the precision of the computations,the computation time, and the sensitivity of the calculation results to the input.

Independent events in elementary probability theory

Science.gov (United States)

Csenki, Attila

2011-07-01

In Probability and Statistics taught to mathematicians as a first introduction or to a non-mathematical audience, joint independence of events is introduced by requiring that the multiplication rule is satisfied. The following statement is usually tacitly assumed to hold (and, at best, intuitively motivated): quote specific-use="indent"> If the n events E 1, E 2, … , E n are jointly independent then any two events A and B built in finitely many steps from two disjoint subsets of E 1, E 2, … , E n are also independent. The operations 'union', 'intersection' and 'complementation' are permitted only when forming the events A and B. quote>Here we examine this statement from the point of view of elementary probability theory. The approach described here is accessible also to users of probability theory and is believed to be novel.

Introduction to probability with statistical applications

CERN Document Server

Schay, Géza

2016-01-01

Now in its second edition, this textbook serves as an introduction to probability and statistics for non-mathematics majors who do not need the exhaustive detail and mathematical depth provided in more comprehensive treatments of the subject. The presentation covers the mathematical laws of random phenomena, including discrete and continuous random variables, expectation and variance, and common probability distributions such as the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. More classical examples such as Montmort's problem, the ballot problem, and Bertrand’s paradox are now included, along with applications such as the Maxwell-Boltzmann and Bose-Einstein distributions in physics. Key features in new edition: * 35 new exercises * Expanded section on the algebra of sets * Expanded chapters on probabilities to include more classical examples * New section on regression * Online instructors' manual containing solutions to all exercises

Quantum interference of probabilities and hidden variable theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Srinivas, M.D.

1984-01-01

One of the fundamental contributions of Louis de Broglie, which does not get cited often, has been his analysis of the basic difference between the calculus of the probabilities as predicted by quantum theory and the usual calculus of probabilities - the one employed by most mathematicians, in its standard axiomatised version due to Kolmogorov. This paper is basically devoted to a discussion of the 'quantum interference of probabilities', discovered by de Broglie. In particular, it is shown that it is this feature of the quantum theoretic probabilities which leads to some serious constraints on the possible 'hidden-variable formulations' of quantum mechanics, including the celebrated theorem of Bell. (Auth.)

A Challenge to Ludwig von Mises’s Theory of Probability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark R. Crovelli

2010-10-01

Full Text Available The most interesting and completely overlooked aspect of Ludwig von Mises’s theory of probability is the total absence of any explicit definition for probability in his theory. This paper examines Mises’s theory of probability in light of the fact that his theory possesses no definition for probability. It is argued, first, that Mises’s theory differs in important respects from his brother’s famous theory of probability. A defense of the subjective definition for probability is then provided, which is subsequently used to critique Ludwig von Mises’s theory. It is argued that only the subjective definition for probability comports with Mises’s other philosophical positions. Since Mises did not provide an explicit definition for probability, it is suggested that he ought to have adopted a subjective definition.

Statistical probability tables CALENDF program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ribon, P.

1989-01-01

The purpose of the probability tables is: - to obtain dense data representation - to calculate integrals by quadratures. They are mainly used in the USA for calculations by Monte Carlo and in the USSR and Europe for self-shielding calculations by the sub-group method. The moment probability tables, in addition to providing a more substantial mathematical basis and calculation methods, are adapted for condensation and mixture calculations, which are the crucial operations for reactor physics specialists. However, their extension is limited by the statistical hypothesis they imply. Efforts are being made to remove this obstacle, at the cost, it must be said, of greater complexity

Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)

2002-01-01

When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

A note on iterated function systems with discontinuous probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaroszewska, Joanna

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Certain iterated function system with discontinuous probabilities is discussed. ► Existence of an invariant measure via the Schauder–Tychonov theorem is established. ► Asymptotic stability of the system under examination is proved. -- Abstract: We consider an example of an iterated function system with discontinuous probabilities. We prove that it posses an invariant probability measure. We also prove that it is asymptotically stable provided probabilities are positive

Measurement uncertainty and probability

CERN Document Server

Willink, Robin

2013-01-01

A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

2018-01-01

An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

Characteristic length of the knotting probability revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo

2015-01-01

We present a self-avoiding polygon (SAP) model for circular DNA in which the radius of impermeable cylindrical segments corresponds to the screening length of double-stranded DNA surrounded by counter ions. For the model we evaluate the probability for a generated SAP with N segments having a given knot K through simulation. We call it the knotting probability of a knot K with N segments for the SAP model. We show that when N is large the most significant factor in the knotting probability is given by the exponentially decaying part exp(−N/N K ), where the estimates of parameter N K are consistent with the same value for all the different knots we investigated. We thus call it the characteristic length of the knotting probability. We give formulae expressing the characteristic length as a function of the cylindrical radius r ex , i.e. the screening length of double-stranded DNA. (paper)

A method to combine non-probability sample data with probability sample data in estimating spatial means of environmental variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brus, D.J.; Gruijter, de J.J.

2003-01-01

In estimating spatial means of environmental variables of a region from data collected by convenience or purposive sampling, validity of the results can be ensured by collecting additional data through probability sampling. The precision of the pi estimator that uses the probability sample can be

Probability mapping of contaminants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G.; McGraw, M.A.; Istok, J.D.; Sigda, J.M.

1994-01-01

Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds)

Probability mapping of contaminants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); McGraw, M.A. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Istok, J.D. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Sigda, J.M. [New Mexico Inst. of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM (United States)

1994-04-01

Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds).

Disease: H00730 [KEGG MEDICUS

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

Full Text Available t has been found a novel SCN5A missense mutation in one symptomatic IVF patient that did not exhibit the typical Brugada electrocardi...ogram (ECG). Recently, IVF linked to the DPP6 gene has b

Factors influencing reporting and harvest probabilities in North American geese

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmerman, G.S.; Moser, T.J.; Kendall, W.L.; Doherty, P.F.; White, Gary C.; Caswell, D.F.

2009-01-01

We assessed variation in reporting probabilities of standard bands among species, populations, harvest locations, and size classes of North American geese to enable estimation of unbiased harvest probabilities. We included reward (US10,20,30,50, or100) and control (0) banded geese from 16 recognized goose populations of 4 species: Canada (Branta canadensis), cackling (B. hutchinsii), Ross's (Chen rossii), and snow geese (C. caerulescens). We incorporated spatially explicit direct recoveries and live recaptures into a multinomial model to estimate reporting, harvest, and band-retention probabilities. We compared various models for estimating harvest probabilities at country (United States vs. Canada), flyway (5 administrative regions), and harvest area (i.e., flyways divided into northern and southern sections) scales. Mean reporting probability of standard bands was 0.73 (95 CI 0.690.77). Point estimates of reporting probabilities for goose populations or spatial units varied from 0.52 to 0.93, but confidence intervals for individual estimates overlapped and model selection indicated that models with species, population, or spatial effects were less parsimonious than those without these effects. Our estimates were similar to recently reported estimates for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We provide current harvest probability estimates for these populations using our direct measures of reporting probability, improving the accuracy of previous estimates obtained from recovery probabilities alone. Goose managers and researchers throughout North America can use our reporting probabilities to correct recovery probabilities estimated from standard banding operations for deriving spatially explicit harvest probabilities.

Probability functions in the context of signed involutive meadows

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bergstra, J.A.; Ponse, A.

2016-01-01

The Kolmogorov axioms for probability functions are placed in the context of signed meadows. A completeness theorem is stated and proven for the resulting equational theory of probability calculus. Elementary definitions of probability theory are restated in this framework.

VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

2005-01-01

Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

Physical inactivity affects skeletal muscle insulin signaling in a birth weight-dependent manner

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Brynjulf; Friedrichsen, Martin; Andersen, Nicoline Resen

2014-01-01

We investigated whether physical inactivity could unmask defects in insulin and AMPK signaling in low birth weight (LBW) subjects.......We investigated whether physical inactivity could unmask defects in insulin and AMPK signaling in low birth weight (LBW) subjects....

Imprecise Probability Methods for Weapons UQ

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Picard, Richard Roy [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Vander Wiel, Scott Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-05-13

Building on recent work in uncertainty quanti cation, we examine the use of imprecise probability methods to better characterize expert knowledge and to improve on misleading aspects of Bayesian analysis with informative prior distributions. Quantitative approaches to incorporate uncertainties in weapons certi cation are subject to rigorous external peer review, and in this regard, certain imprecise probability methods are well established in the literature and attractive. These methods are illustrated using experimental data from LANL detonator impact testing.

Probability and statistics for computer science

CERN Document Server

Johnson, James L

2011-01-01

Comprehensive and thorough development of both probability and statistics for serious computer scientists; goal-oriented: ""to present the mathematical analysis underlying probability results"" Special emphases on simulation and discrete decision theory Mathematically-rich, but self-contained text, at a gentle pace Review of calculus and linear algebra in an appendix Mathematical interludes (in each chapter) which examine mathematical techniques in the context of probabilistic or statistical importance Numerous section exercises, summaries, historical notes, and Further Readings for reinforcem

Uncertainty relation and probability. Numerical illustration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujikawa, Kazuo; Umetsu, Koichiro

2011-01-01

The uncertainty relation and the probability interpretation of quantum mechanics are intrinsically connected, as is evidenced by the evaluation of standard deviations. It is thus natural to ask if one can associate a very small uncertainty product of suitably sampled events with a very small probability. We have shown elsewhere that some examples of the evasion of the uncertainty relation noted in the past are in fact understood in this way. We here numerically illustrate that a very small uncertainty product is realized if one performs a suitable sampling of measured data that occur with a very small probability. We introduce a notion of cyclic measurements. It is also shown that our analysis is consistent with the Landau-Pollak-type uncertainty relation. It is suggested that the present analysis may help reconcile the contradicting views about the 'standard quantum limit' in the detection of gravitational waves. (author)

A basic course in probability theory

CERN Document Server

Bhattacharya, Rabi

2016-01-01

This text develops the necessary background in probability theory underlying diverse treatments of stochastic processes and their wide-ranging applications. In this second edition, the text has been reorganized for didactic purposes, new exercises have been added and basic theory has been expanded. General Markov dependent sequences and their convergence to equilibrium is the subject of an entirely new chapter. The introduction of conditional expectation and conditional probability very early in the text maintains the pedagogic innovation of the first edition; conditional expectation is illustrated in detail in the context of an expanded treatment of martingales, the Markov property, and the strong Markov property. Weak convergence of probabilities on metric spaces and Brownian motion are two topics to highlight. A selection of large deviation and/or concentration inequalities ranging from those of Chebyshev, Cramer–Chernoff, Bahadur–Rao, to Hoeffding have been added, with illustrative comparisons of thei...

Geometric modeling in probability and statistics

CERN Document Server

Calin, Ovidiu

2014-01-01

This book covers topics of Informational Geometry, a field which deals with the differential geometric study of the manifold probability density functions. This is a field that is increasingly attracting the interest of researchers from many different areas of science, including mathematics, statistics, geometry, computer science, signal processing, physics and neuroscience. It is the authors’ hope that the present book will be a valuable reference for researchers and graduate students in one of the aforementioned fields. This textbook is a unified presentation of differential geometry and probability theory, and constitutes a text for a course directed at graduate or advanced undergraduate students interested in applications of differential geometry in probability and statistics. The book contains over 100 proposed exercises meant to help students deepen their understanding, and it is accompanied by software that is able to provide numerical computations of several information geometric objects. The reader...

Establishment probability in newly founded populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gusset Markus

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Establishment success in newly founded populations relies on reaching the established phase, which is defined by characteristic fluctuations of the population’s state variables. Stochastic population models can be used to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations; however, so far no simple but robust method for doing so existed. To determine a critical initial number of individuals that need to be released to reach the established phase, we used a novel application of the “Wissel plot”, where –ln(1 – P0(t is plotted against time t. This plot is based on the equation P0t=1–c1e–ω1t, which relates the probability of extinction by time t, P0(t, to two constants: c1 describes the probability of a newly founded population to reach the established phase, whereas ω1 describes the population’s probability of extinction per short time interval once established. Results For illustration, we applied the method to a previously developed stochastic population model of the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus. A newly founded population reaches the established phase if the intercept of the (extrapolated linear parts of the “Wissel plot” with the y-axis, which is –ln(c1, is negative. For wild dogs in our model, this is the case if a critical initial number of four packs, consisting of eight individuals each, are released. Conclusions The method we present to quantify the establishment probability of newly founded populations is generic and inferences thus are transferable to other systems across the field of conservation biology. In contrast to other methods, our approach disaggregates the components of a population’s viability by distinguishing establishment from persistence.

Introducing Disjoint and Independent Events in Probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, I. W.; Zwiers, F. W.

Two central concepts in probability theory are those of independence and mutually exclusive events. This document is intended to provide suggestions to teachers that can be used to equip students with an intuitive, comprehensive understanding of these basic concepts in probability. The first section of the paper delineates mutually exclusive and…

Against All Odds: When Logic Meets Probability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Benthem, J.; Katoen, J.-P.; Langerak, R.; Rensink, A.

2017-01-01

This paper is a light walk along interfaces between logic and probability, triggered by a chance encounter with Ed Brinksma. It is not a research paper, or a literature survey, but a pointer to issues. I discuss both direct combinations of logic and probability and structured ways in which logic can

Prospect evaluation as a function of numeracy and probability denominator.

Science.gov (United States)

Millroth, Philip; Juslin, Peter

2015-05-01

This study examines how numeracy and probability denominator (a direct-ratio probability, a relative frequency with denominator 100, a relative frequency with denominator 10,000) affect the evaluation of prospects in an expected-value based pricing task. We expected that numeracy would affect the results due to differences in the linearity of number perception and the susceptibility to denominator neglect with different probability formats. An analysis with functional measurement verified that participants integrated value and probability into an expected value. However, a significant interaction between numeracy and probability format and subsequent analyses of the parameters of cumulative prospect theory showed that the manipulation of probability denominator changed participants' psychophysical response to probability and value. Standard methods in decision research may thus confound people's genuine risk attitude with their numerical capacities and the probability format used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On probability-possibility transformations

Science.gov (United States)

Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad

1992-01-01

Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.

The diagnostic and therapeutic aspects of loss-of-function cardiac sodium channelopathies in children

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chockalingam, Priya; Clur, Sally-Ann B.; Breur, Johannes M. P. J.; Kriebel, Thomas; Paul, Thomas; Rammeloo, Lukas A.; Wilde, Arthur A. M.; Blom, Nico A.

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND Loss-of-function sodium channelopathies manifest as a spectrum of diseases including Brugada syndrome (BrS) and cardiac conduction disease. OBJECTIVE To analyze the diagnostic and therapeutic aspects of these disorders in children. METHODS Patients aged <= 16 years with genetically

Derivation of Human Induced Pluripotent Stem (iPS) Cells to Heritable Cardiac Arrhythmias

Science.gov (United States)

2017-08-10

Inherited Cardiac Arrythmias; Long QT Syndrome (LQTS); Brugada Syndrome (BrS); Catecholaminergic Polymorphic Ventricular Tachycardia (CPVT); Early Repolarization Syndrome (ERS); Arrhythmogenic Cardiomyopathy (AC, ARVD/C); Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM); Dilated Cardiomyopathy (DCM); Muscular Dystrophies (Duchenne, Becker, Myotonic Dystrophy); Normal Control Subjects

Probability: A Matter of Life and Death

Science.gov (United States)

Hassani, Mehdi; Kippen, Rebecca; Mills, Terence

2016-01-01

Life tables are mathematical tables that document probabilities of dying and life expectancies at different ages in a society. Thus, the life table contains some essential features of the health of a population. Probability is often regarded as a difficult branch of mathematics. Life tables provide an interesting approach to introducing concepts…

An introduction to probability and stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Melsa, James L

2013-01-01

Geared toward college seniors and first-year graduate students, this text is designed for a one-semester course in probability and stochastic processes. Topics covered in detail include probability theory, random variables and their functions, stochastic processes, linear system response to stochastic processes, Gaussian and Markov processes, and stochastic differential equations. 1973 edition.

Probability densities and Lévy densities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler

For positive Lévy processes (i.e. subordinators) formulae are derived that express the probability density or the distribution function in terms of power series in time t. The applicability of the results to finance and to turbulence is briefly indicated.......For positive Lévy processes (i.e. subordinators) formulae are derived that express the probability density or the distribution function in terms of power series in time t. The applicability of the results to finance and to turbulence is briefly indicated....

Maximization of regional probabilities using Optimal Surface Graphs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arias Lorza, Andres M.; Van Engelen, Arna; Petersen, Jens

2018-01-01

Purpose: We present a segmentation method that maximizes regional probabilities enclosed by coupled surfaces using an Optimal Surface Graph (OSG) cut approach. This OSG cut determines the globally optimal solution given a graph constructed around an initial surface. While most methods for vessel...... wall segmentation only use edge information, we show that maximizing regional probabilities using an OSG improves the segmentation results. We applied this to automatically segment the vessel wall of the carotid artery in magnetic resonance images. Methods: First, voxel-wise regional probability maps...... were obtained using a Support Vector Machine classifier trained on local image features. Then, the OSG segments the regions which maximizes the regional probabilities considering smoothness and topological constraints. Results: The method was evaluated on 49 carotid arteries from 30 subjects...

Zero field reversal probability in thermally assisted magnetization reversal

Science.gov (United States)

Prasetya, E. B.; Utari; Purnama, B.

2017-11-01

This paper discussed about zero field reversal probability in thermally assisted magnetization reversal (TAMR). Appearance of reversal probability in zero field investigated through micromagnetic simulation by solving stochastic Landau-Lifshitz-Gibert (LLG). The perpendicularly anisotropy magnetic dot of 50×50×20 nm3 is considered as single cell magnetic storage of magnetic random acces memory (MRAM). Thermally assisted magnetization reversal was performed by cooling writing process from near/almost Curie point to room temperature on 20 times runs for different randomly magnetized state. The results show that the probability reversal under zero magnetic field decreased with the increase of the energy barrier. The zero-field probability switching of 55% attained for energy barrier of 60 k B T and the reversal probability become zero noted at energy barrier of 2348 k B T. The higest zero-field switching probability of 55% attained for energy barrier of 60 k B T which corespond to magnetif field of 150 Oe for switching.

Path probability of stochastic motion: A functional approach

Science.gov (United States)

Hattori, Masayuki; Abe, Sumiyoshi

2016-06-01

The path probability of a particle undergoing stochastic motion is studied by the use of functional technique, and the general formula is derived for the path probability distribution functional. The probability of finding paths inside a tube/band, the center of which is stipulated by a given path, is analytically evaluated in a way analogous to continuous measurements in quantum mechanics. Then, the formalism developed here is applied to the stochastic dynamics of stock price in finance.

Probability and containment of turbine missiles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeh, G.C.K.

1976-01-01

With the trend toward ever larger power generating plants with large high-speed turbines, an important plant design consideration is the potential for and consequences of mechanical failure of turbine rotors. Such rotor failure could result in high-velocity disc fragments (turbine missiles) perforating the turbine casing and jeopardizing vital plant systems. The designer must first estimate the probability of any turbine missile damaging any safety-related plant component for his turbine and his plant arrangement. If the probability is not low enough to be acceptable to the regulatory agency, he must design a shield to contain the postulated turbine missiles. Alternatively, the shield could be designed to retard (to reduce the velocity of) the missiles such that they would not damage any vital plant system. In this paper, some of the presently available references that can be used to evaluate the probability, containment and retardation of turbine missiles are reviewed; various alternative methods are compared; and subjects for future research are recommended. (Auth.)

Estimation of Extreme Response and Failure Probability of Wind Turbines under Normal Operation using Probability Density Evolution Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Liu, W. F.

2013-01-01

Estimation of extreme response and failure probability of structures subjected to ultimate design loads is essential for structural design of wind turbines according to the new standard IEC61400-1. This task is focused on in the present paper in virtue of probability density evolution method (PDEM......), which underlies the schemes of random vibration analysis and structural reliability assessment. The short-term rare failure probability of 5-mega-watt wind turbines, for illustrative purposes, in case of given mean wind speeds and turbulence levels is investigated through the scheme of extreme value...... distribution instead of any other approximate schemes of fitted distribution currently used in statistical extrapolation techniques. Besides, the comparative studies against the classical fitted distributions and the standard Monte Carlo techniques are carried out. Numerical results indicate that PDEM exhibits...

The probability of the false vacuum decay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiselev, V.; Selivanov, K.

1983-01-01

The closed expession for the probability of the false vacuum decay in (1+1) dimensions is given. The probability of false vacuum decay is expessed as the product of exponential quasiclassical factor and a functional determinant of the given form. The method for calcutation of this determinant is developed and a complete answer for (1+1) dimensions is given

Blockade of Cannabinoid CB1 Receptors in the Dorsal Periaqueductal Gray Unmasks the Antinociceptive Effect of Local Injections of Anandamide in Mice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diego C. Mascarenhas

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Divergent results in pain management account for the growing number of studies aiming at elucidating the pharmacology of the endocannabinoid/endovanilloid anandamide (AEA within several pain-related brain structures. For instance, the stimulation of both Transient Receptor Potential Vanilloid type 1 (TRPV1 and Cannabinoid type 1 (CB1 receptors led to paradoxical effects on nociception. Here, we attempted to propose a clear and reproducible methodology to achieve the antinociceptive effect of exogenous AEA within the dorsal periaqueductal gray (dPAG of mice exposed to the tail-flick test. Accordingly, male Swiss mice received intra-dPAG injection of AEA (CB1/TRPV1 agonist, capsaicin (TRPV1 agonist, WIN (CB1 agonist, AM251 (CB1 antagonist, and 6-iodonordihydrocapsaicin (6-IODO (TRPV1 selective antagonist and their nociceptive response was assessed with the tail-flick test. In order to assess AEA effects on nociception specifically at vanilloid or cannabinoid (CB substrates into the dPAG, mice underwent an intrinsically inactive dose of AM251 or 6-IODO followed by local AEA injections and were subjected to the same test. While intra-dPAG AEA did not change acute pain, local injections of capsaicin or WIN induced a marked TRPV1- and CB1-dependent antinociceptive effect, respectively. Regarding the role of AEA specifically at CB/vanilloid substrates, while the blockade of TRPV1 did not change the lack of effects of intra-dPAG AEA on nociception, local pre-treatment of AM251, a CB1 antagonist, led to a clear AEA-induced antinociception. It seems that the exogenous AEA-induced antinociception is unmasked when it selectively binds to vanilloid substrates, which might be useful to address acute pain in basic and perhaps clinical trials.

Influence of the Probability Level on the Framing Effect

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaja Damnjanovic

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Research of the framing effect of risky choice mostly applies to the tasks where the effect of only one probability or risk level on the choice of non-risky or risky options was examined. The conducted research was aimed to examine the framing effect in the function of probability level in the outcome of a risk option in three decision-making domains: health, money and human lives. It has been confirmed that the decision-making domain moderates the framing effect. In the monetary domain, the general risk aversion has been confirmed as registered in earlier research. At high probability levels, the framing effect is registered in both frames, while no framing effect is registered at lower probability levels. In the domain of decision-making about human lives, the framing effect is registered at medium high and medium low probability levels. In the domain of decision-making about health, the framing effect is registered almost in the entire probability range while this domain differs from the former two. The results show that the attitude to risk is not identical at different probability levels, that the dynamics of the attitude to risk influences the framing effect, and that the framing effect pattern is different in different decision-making domains. In other words, linguistic manipulation representing the frame in the tasks affects the change in the preference order only when the possibility of gain (expressed in probability is estimated as sufficiently high.

Probability of crack-initiation and application to NDE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prantl, G [Nuclear Safety Inspectorate HSK, (Switzerland)

1988-12-31

Fracture toughness is a property with a certain variability. When a statistical distribution is assumed, the probability of crack initiation may be calculated for a given problem defined by its geometry and the applied stress. Experiments have shown, that cracks which experience a certain small amount of ductile growth can reliably be detected by acoustic emission measurements. The probability of crack detection by AE-techniques may be estimated using this experimental finding and the calculated probability of crack initiation. (author).

Introduction to probability and stochastic processes with applications

CERN Document Server

Castañ, Blanco; Arunachalam, Viswanathan; Dharmaraja, Selvamuthu

2012-01-01

An easily accessible, real-world approach to probability and stochastic processes Introduction to Probability and Stochastic Processes with Applications presents a clear, easy-to-understand treatment of probability and stochastic processes, providing readers with a solid foundation they can build upon throughout their careers. With an emphasis on applications in engineering, applied sciences, business and finance, statistics, mathematics, and operations research, the book features numerous real-world examples that illustrate how random phenomena occur in nature and how to use probabilistic t

Use of probability tables for propagating uncertainties in neutronics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coste-Delclaux, M.; Diop, C.M.; Lahaye, S.

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Moment-based probability table formalism is described. • Representation by probability tables of any uncertainty distribution is established. • Multiband equations for two kinds of uncertainty propagation problems are solved. • Numerical examples are provided and validated against Monte Carlo simulations. - Abstract: Probability tables are a generic tool that allows representing any random variable whose probability density function is known. In the field of nuclear reactor physics, this tool is currently used to represent the variation of cross-sections versus energy (neutron transport codes TRIPOLI4®, MCNP, APOLLO2, APOLLO3®, ECCO/ERANOS…). In the present article we show how we can propagate uncertainties, thanks to a probability table representation, through two simple physical problems: an eigenvalue problem (neutron multiplication factor) and a depletion problem.

Quantum correlations in terms of neutrino oscillation probabilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alok, Ashutosh Kumar, E-mail: akalok@iitj.ac.in [Indian Institute of Technology Jodhpur, Jodhpur 342011 (India); Banerjee, Subhashish, E-mail: subhashish@iitj.ac.in [Indian Institute of Technology Jodhpur, Jodhpur 342011 (India); Uma Sankar, S., E-mail: uma@phy.iitb.ac.in [Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400076 (India)

2016-08-15

Neutrino oscillations provide evidence for the mode entanglement of neutrino mass eigenstates in a given flavour eigenstate. Given this mode entanglement, it is pertinent to consider the relation between the oscillation probabilities and other quantum correlations. In this work, we show that all the well-known quantum correlations, such as the Bell's inequality, are directly related to the neutrino oscillation probabilities. The results of the neutrino oscillation experiments, which measure the neutrino survival probability to be less than unity, imply Bell's inequality violation.

Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

2003-01-01

of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

Duelling idiots and other probability puzzlers

CERN Document Server

Nahin, Paul J

2002-01-01

What are your chances of dying on your next flight, being called for jury duty, or winning the lottery? We all encounter probability problems in our everyday lives. In this collection of twenty-one puzzles, Paul Nahin challenges us to think creatively about the laws of probability as they apply in playful, sometimes deceptive, ways to a fascinating array of speculative situations. Games of Russian roulette, problems involving the accumulation of insects on flypaper, and strategies for determining the odds of the underdog winning the World Series all reveal intriguing dimensions to the worki

EARLY HISTORY OF GEOMETRIC PROBABILITY AND STEREOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magdalena Hykšová

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The paper provides an account of the history of geometric probability and stereology from the time of Newton to the early 20th century. It depicts the development of two parallel ways: on one hand, the theory of geometric probability was formed with minor attention paid to other applications than those concerning spatial chance games. On the other hand, practical rules of the estimation of area or volume fraction and other characteristics, easily deducible from geometric probability theory, were proposed without the knowledge of this branch. A special attention is paid to the paper of J.-É. Barbier published in 1860, which contained the fundamental stereological formulas, but remained almost unnoticed both by mathematicians and practicians.

Estimation of post-test probabilities by residents: Bayesian reasoning versus heuristics?

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Stacey; Phang, Sen Han; Schaefer, Jeffrey P; Ghali, William; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2014-08-01

Although the process of diagnosing invariably begins with a heuristic, we encourage our learners to support their diagnoses by analytical cognitive processes, such as Bayesian reasoning, in an attempt to mitigate the effects of heuristics on diagnosing. There are, however, limited data on the use ± impact of Bayesian reasoning on the accuracy of disease probability estimates. In this study our objective was to explore whether Internal Medicine residents use a Bayesian process to estimate disease probabilities by comparing their disease probability estimates to literature-derived Bayesian post-test probabilities. We gave 35 Internal Medicine residents four clinical vignettes in the form of a referral letter and asked them to estimate the post-test probability of the target condition in each case. We then compared these to literature-derived probabilities. For each vignette the estimated probability was significantly different from the literature-derived probability. For the two cases with low literature-derived probability our participants significantly overestimated the probability of these target conditions being the correct diagnosis, whereas for the two cases with high literature-derived probability the estimated probability was significantly lower than the calculated value. Our results suggest that residents generate inaccurate post-test probability estimates. Possible explanations for this include ineffective application of Bayesian reasoning, attribute substitution whereby a complex cognitive task is replaced by an easier one (e.g., a heuristic), or systematic rater bias, such as central tendency bias. Further studies are needed to identify the reasons for inaccuracy of disease probability estimates and to explore ways of improving accuracy.

Illustrating Probability through Roulette: A Spreadsheet Simulation Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kala Chand Seal

2005-11-01

Full Text Available Teaching probability can be challenging because the mathematical formulas often are too abstract and complex for the students to fully grasp the underlying meaning and effect of the concepts. Games can provide a way to address this issue. For example, the game of roulette can be an exciting application for teaching probability concepts. In this paper, we implement a model of roulette in a spreadsheet that can simulate outcomes of various betting strategies. The simulations can be analyzed to gain better insights into the corresponding probability structures. We use the model to simulate a particular betting strategy known as the bet-doubling, or Martingale, strategy. This strategy is quite popular and is often erroneously perceived as a winning strategy even though the probability analysis shows that such a perception is incorrect. The simulation allows us to present the true implications of such a strategy for a player with a limited betting budget and relate the results to the underlying theoretical probability structure. The overall validation of the model, its use for teaching, including its application to analyze other types of betting strategies are discussed.

Tumor control probability after a radiation of animal tumors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Urano, Muneyasu; Ando, Koichi; Koike, Sachiko; Nesumi, Naofumi

1975-01-01

Tumor control and regrowth probability of animal tumors irradiated with a single x-ray dose were determined, using a spontaneous C3H mouse mammary carcinoma. Cellular radiation sensitivity of tumor cells and tumor control probability of the tumor were examined by the TD 50 and TCD 50 assays respectively. Tumor growth kinetics were measured by counting the percentage of labelled mitosis and by measuring the growth curve. A mathematical analysis of tumor control probability was made from these results. A formula proposed, accounted for cell population kinetics or division probability model, cell sensitivity to radiation and number of tumor cells. (auth.)

Joseph L Doob and Development of Probability Theory

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

IAS Admin

(equivalent to BSc in India) in mathematics at the famous Harvard University, ... Doob says that the force of economic circumstances got him into probability theory. ... Books. J L Doob established probability theory as a major discipline of study ...

Tuned by experience: How orientation probability modulates early perceptual processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Jabar, Syaheed B; Filipowicz, Alex; Anderson, Britt

2017-09-01

Probable stimuli are more often and more quickly detected. While stimulus probability is known to affect decision-making, it can also be explained as a perceptual phenomenon. Using spatial gratings, we have previously shown that probable orientations are also more precisely estimated, even while participants remained naive to the manipulation. We conducted an electrophysiological study to investigate the effect that probability has on perception and visual-evoked potentials. In line with previous studies on oddballs and stimulus prevalence, low-probability orientations were associated with a greater late positive 'P300' component which might be related to either surprise or decision-making. However, the early 'C1' component, thought to reflect V1 processing, was dampened for high-probability orientations while later P1 and N1 components were unaffected. Exploratory analyses revealed a participant-level correlation between C1 and P300 amplitudes, suggesting a link between perceptual processing and decision-making. We discuss how these probability effects could be indicative of sharpening of neurons preferring the probable orientations, due either to perceptual learning, or to feature-based attention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability: Marginal and Cause-Specific Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

2005-01-01

cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling......cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling...

Ventricular Tachycardia in the Absence of Structural Heart Disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis R. P. Scott

2005-04-01

Full Text Available In up to 10% of patients who present with ventricular tachycardia (VT, obvious structural heart disease is not identified. In such patients, causes of ventricular arrhythmia include right ventricular outflow tract (RVOT VT, extrasystoles, idiopathic left ventricular tachycardia (ILVT, idiopathic propranolol-sensitive VT (IPVT, catecholaminergic polymorphic VT (CPVT, Brugada syndrome, and long QT syndrome (LQTS. RVOT VT, ILVT, and IPVT are referred to as idiopathic VT and generally do not have a familial basis. RVOT VT and ILVT are monomorphic, whereas IPVT may be monomorphic or polymorphic. The idiopathic VTs are classified by the ventricle of origin, the response to pharmacologic agents, catecholamine dependence, and the specific morphologic features of the arrhythmia. CPVT, Brugada syndrome, and LQTS are inherited ion channelopathies. CPVT may present as bidirectional VT, polymorphic VT, or catecholaminergic ventricular fibrillation. Syncope and sudden death in Brugada syndrome are usually due to polymorphic VT. The characteristic arrhythmia of LQTS is torsades de pointes. Overall, patients with idiopathic VT have a better prognosis than do patients with ventricular arrhythmias and structural heart disease. Initial treatment approach is pharmacologic and radiofrequency ablation is curative in most patients. However, radiofrequency ablation is not useful in the management of inherited ion channelopathies. Prognosis for patients with VT secondary to ion channelopathies is variable. High-risk patients (recurrent syncope and sudden cardiac death survivors with inherited ion channelopathies benefit from implantable cardioverter-defibrillator placement. This paper reviews the mechanism, clinical presentation, and management of VT in the absence of structural heart disease.

Probability for Weather and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, L. A.

2013-12-01

Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

Probability analysis of nuclear power plant hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kovacs, Z.

1985-01-01

The probability analysis of risk is described used for quantifying the risk of complex technological systems, especially of nuclear power plants. Risk is defined as the product of the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous event and the significance of its consequences. The process of the analysis may be divided into the stage of power plant analysis to the point of release of harmful material into the environment (reliability analysis) and the stage of the analysis of the consequences of this release and the assessment of the risk. The sequence of operations is characterized in the individual stages. The tasks are listed which Czechoslovakia faces in the development of the probability analysis of risk, and the composition is recommended of the work team for coping with the task. (J.C.)

SureTrak Probability of Impact Display

Science.gov (United States)

Elliott, John

2012-01-01

The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display software was developed for use during rocket launch operations. The software displays probability of impact information for each ship near the hazardous area during the time immediately preceding the launch of an unguided vehicle. Wallops range safety officers need to be sure that the risk to humans is below a certain threshold during each use of the Wallops Flight Facility Launch Range. Under the variable conditions that can exist at launch time, the decision to launch must be made in a timely manner to ensure a successful mission while not exceeding those risk criteria. Range safety officers need a tool that can give them the needed probability of impact information quickly, and in a format that is clearly understandable. This application is meant to fill that need. The software is a reuse of part of software developed for an earlier project: Ship Surveillance Software System (S4). The S4 project was written in C++ using Microsoft Visual Studio 6. The data structures and dialog templates from it were copied into a new application that calls the implementation of the algorithms from S4 and displays the results as needed. In the S4 software, the list of ships in the area was received from one local radar interface and from operators who entered the ship information manually. The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display application receives ship data from two local radars as well as the SureTrak system, eliminating the need for manual data entry.

Partial uniparental isodisomy of chromosome 16 unmasks a deleterious biallelic mutation in IFT140 that causes Mainzer-Saldino syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Helm, Benjamin M; Willer, Jason R; Sadeghpour, Azita; Golzio, Christelle; Crouch, Eric; Vergano, Samantha Schrier; Katsanis, Nicholas; Davis, Erica E

2017-07-19

combined with research-based genetic and functional studies, we have characterized a recurrent IFT140 mutation in the proband; together, these data are consistent with MZSDS. Additionally, we report a rare instance of a uniparental isodisomy unmasking a deleterious mutation to cause a ciliary disorder.

Quantum probability and quantum decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D

2016-01-13

A rigorous general definition of quantum probability is given, which is valid not only for elementary events but also for composite events, for operationally testable measurements as well as for inconclusive measurements, and also for non-commuting observables in addition to commutative observables. Our proposed definition of quantum probability makes it possible to describe quantum measurements and quantum decision-making on the same common mathematical footing. Conditions are formulated for the case when quantum decision theory reduces to its classical counterpart and for the situation where the use of quantum decision theory is necessary. © 2015 The Author(s).

Lady luck the theory of probability

CERN Document Server

Weaver, Warren

1982-01-01

""Should I take my umbrella?"" ""Should I buy insurance?"" ""Which horse should I bet on?"" Every day ― in business, in love affairs, in forecasting the weather or the stock market questions arise which cannot be answered by a simple ""yes"" or ""no."" Many of these questions involve probability. Probabilistic thinking is as crucially important in ordinary affairs as it is in the most abstruse realms of science. This book is the best nontechnical introduction to probability ever written. Its author, the late Dr. Warren Weaver, was a professor of mathematics, active in the Rockefeller and Sloa

Bayesian estimation of core-melt probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, H.W.

1984-01-01

A very simple application of the canonical Bayesian algorithm is made to the problem of estimation of the probability of core melt in a commercial power reactor. An approximation to the results of the Rasmussen study on reactor safety is used as the prior distribution, and the observation that there has been no core melt yet is used as the single experiment. The result is a substantial decrease in the mean probability of core melt--factors of 2 to 4 for reasonable choices of parameters. The purpose is to illustrate the procedure, not to argue for the decrease

Cost-effectiveness of genotyping in inherited arrhythmia syndromes: are we getting value for the money?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wilde, Arthur A. M.; Pinto, Yigal M.

2009-01-01

Over the last decade, the identification of the diverse genetic basis of most important inherited arrhythmia syndromes has remarkably changed our attitude toward these life-threatening diseases. Just over 10 years ago, long-QT syndrome (LQTS) was considered one disease entity, Brugada -QT syndrome

Escape and transmission probabilities in cylindrical geometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjerke, M.A.

1980-01-01

An improved technique for the generation of escape and transmission probabilities in cylindrical geometry was applied to the existing resonance cross section processing code ROLAIDS. The algorithm of Hwang and Toppel, [ANL-FRA-TM-118] (with modifications) was employed. The probabilities generated were found to be as accurate as those given by the method previously applied in ROLAIDS, while requiring much less computer core storage and CPU time

Method to Calculate Accurate Top Event Probability in a Seismic PSA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jung, Woo Sik [Sejong Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

ACUBE(Advanced Cutset Upper Bound Estimator) calculates the top event probability and importance measures from cutsets by dividing cutsets into major and minor groups depending on the cutset probability, where the cutsets that have higher cutset probability are included in the major group and the others in minor cutsets, converting major cutsets into a Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). By applying the ACUBE algorithm to the seismic PSA cutsets, the accuracy of a top event probability and importance measures can be significantly improved. ACUBE works by dividing the cutsets into two groups (higher and lower cutset probability groups), calculating the top event probability and importance measures in each group, and combining the two results from the two groups. Here, ACUBE calculates the top event probability and importance measures of the higher cutset probability group exactly. On the other hand, ACUBE calculates these measures of the lower cutset probability group with an approximation such as MCUB. The ACUBE algorithm is useful for decreasing the conservatism that is caused by approximating the top event probability and importance measure calculations with given cutsets. By applying the ACUBE algorithm to the seismic PSA cutsets, the accuracy of a top event probability and importance measures can be significantly improved. This study shows that careful attention should be paid and an appropriate method be provided in order to avoid the significant overestimation of the top event probability calculation. Due to the strength of ACUBE that is explained in this study, the ACUBE became a vital tool for calculating more accurate CDF of the seismic PSA cutsets than the conventional probability calculation method.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-A case report and mechanistic review of the association with toluene and other volatile organic compounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Ratner, Marcia H; Jabre, Joe F; Ewing, William M; Abou-Donia, Mohamed; Oliver, L Christine

2018-03-01

Unmasking of latent neurodegenerative disease has been reported following exposure to chemicals that share one or more mechanisms of action in common with those implicated in the specific disease. For example, unmasking of latent Parkinson's disease (PD) has been associated with exposure to anti-dopaminergic agents, while the progression of pre-existing mild cognitive impairment and unmasking of latent Alzheimer's disease has been associated with exposure to general anesthetic agents which promote Aβ protein aggregation. This literature review and clinical case report about a 45-year-old man with no family history of motor neuron disease who developed overt symptoms of a neuromuscular disorder in close temporal association with his unwitting occupational exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) puts forth the hypothesis that exposure to VOCs such as toluene, which disrupt motor function and increase oxidative stress, can unmask latent ALS type neuromuscular disorder in susceptible individuals. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Joint Probability Distributions for a Class of Non-Markovian Processes

OpenAIRE

Baule, A.; Friedrich, R.

2004-01-01

We consider joint probability distributions for the class of coupled Langevin equations introduced by Fogedby [H.C. Fogedby, Phys. Rev. E 50, 1657 (1994)]. We generalize well-known results for the single time probability distributions to the case of N-time joint probability distributions. It is shown that these probability distribution functions can be obtained by an integral transform from distributions of a Markovian process. The integral kernel obeys a partial differential equation with fr...

Bounding probabilistic safety assessment probabilities by reality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fragola, J.R.; Shooman, M.L.

1991-01-01

The investigation of the failure in systems where failure is a rare event makes the continual comparisons between the developed probabilities and empirical evidence difficult. The comparison of the predictions of rare event risk assessments with historical reality is essential to prevent probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) predictions from drifting into fantasy. One approach to performing such comparisons is to search out and assign probabilities to natural events which, while extremely rare, have a basis in the history of natural phenomena or human activities. For example the Segovian aqueduct and some of the Roman fortresses in Spain have existed for several millennia and in many cases show no physical signs of earthquake damage. This evidence could be used to bound the probability of earthquakes above a certain magnitude to less than 10 -3 per year. On the other hand, there is evidence that some repetitive actions can be performed with extremely low historical probabilities when operators are properly trained and motivated, and sufficient warning indicators are provided. The point is not that low probability estimates are impossible, but continual reassessment of the analysis assumptions, and a bounding of the analysis predictions by historical reality. This paper reviews the probabilistic predictions of PSA in this light, attempts to develop, in a general way, the limits which can be historically established and the consequent bounds that these limits place upon the predictions, and illustrates the methodology used in computing such limits. Further, the paper discusses the use of empirical evidence and the requirement for disciplined systematic approaches within the bounds of reality and the associated impact on PSA probabilistic estimates

Preservice Elementary Teachers and the Fundamentals of Probability

Science.gov (United States)

Dollard, Clark

2011-01-01

This study examined how preservice elementary teachers think about situations involving probability. Twenty-four preservice elementary teachers who had not yet studied probability as part of their preservice elementary mathematics coursework were interviewed using a task-based interview. The participants' responses showed a wide variety of…

Oil spill contamination probability in the southeastern Levantine basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldman, Ron; Biton, Eli; Brokovich, Eran; Kark, Salit; Levin, Noam

2015-02-15

Recent gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean Sea led to multiple operations with substantial economic interest, and with them there is a risk of oil spills and their potential environmental impacts. To examine the potential spatial distribution of this threat, we created seasonal maps of the probability of oil spill pollution reaching an area in the Israeli coastal and exclusive economic zones, given knowledge of its initial sources. We performed simulations of virtual oil spills using realistic atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The resulting maps show dominance of the alongshore northerly current, which causes the high probability areas to be stretched parallel to the coast, increasing contamination probability downstream of source points. The seasonal westerly wind forcing determines how wide the high probability areas are, and may also restrict these to a small coastal region near source points. Seasonal variability in probability distribution, oil state, and pollution time is also discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ignition probabilities for Compact Ignition Tokamak designs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stotler, D.P.; Goldston, R.J.

1989-09-01

A global power balance code employing Monte Carlo techniques had been developed to study the ''probability of ignition'' and has been applied to several different configurations of the Compact Ignition Tokamak (CIT). Probability distributions for the critical physics parameters in the code were estimated using existing experimental data. This included a statistical evaluation of the uncertainty in extrapolating the energy confinement time. A substantial probability of ignition is predicted for CIT if peaked density profiles can be achieved or if one of the two higher plasma current configurations is employed. In other cases, values of the energy multiplication factor Q of order 10 are generally obtained. The Ignitor-U and ARIES designs are also examined briefly. Comparisons of our empirically based confinement assumptions with two theory-based transport models yield conflicting results. 41 refs., 11 figs

Comparing coefficients of nested nonlinear probability models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kohler, Ulrich; Karlson, Kristian Bernt; Holm, Anders

2011-01-01

In a series of recent articles, Karlson, Holm and Breen have developed a method for comparing the estimated coeffcients of two nested nonlinear probability models. This article describes this method and the user-written program khb that implements the method. The KHB-method is a general decomposi......In a series of recent articles, Karlson, Holm and Breen have developed a method for comparing the estimated coeffcients of two nested nonlinear probability models. This article describes this method and the user-written program khb that implements the method. The KHB-method is a general...... decomposition method that is unaffected by the rescaling or attenuation bias that arise in cross-model comparisons in nonlinear models. It recovers the degree to which a control variable, Z, mediates or explains the relationship between X and a latent outcome variable, Y*, underlying the nonlinear probability...

Python for probability, statistics, and machine learning

CERN Document Server

Unpingco, José

2016-01-01

This book covers the key ideas that link probability, statistics, and machine learning illustrated using Python modules in these areas. The entire text, including all the figures and numerical results, is reproducible using the Python codes and their associated Jupyter/IPython notebooks, which are provided as supplementary downloads. The author develops key intuitions in machine learning by working meaningful examples using multiple analytical methods and Python codes, thereby connecting theoretical concepts to concrete implementations. Modern Python modules like Pandas, Sympy, and Scikit-learn are applied to simulate and visualize important machine learning concepts like the bias/variance trade-off, cross-validation, and regularization. Many abstract mathematical ideas, such as convergence in probability theory, are developed and illustrated with numerical examples. This book is suitable for anyone with an undergraduate-level exposure to probability, statistics, or machine learning and with rudimentary knowl...

Some applications of the fractional Poisson probability distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laskin, Nick

2009-01-01

Physical and mathematical applications of the recently invented fractional Poisson probability distribution have been presented. As a physical application, a new family of quantum coherent states has been introduced and studied. As mathematical applications, we have developed the fractional generalization of Bell polynomials, Bell numbers, and Stirling numbers of the second kind. The appearance of fractional Bell polynomials is natural if one evaluates the diagonal matrix element of the evolution operator in the basis of newly introduced quantum coherent states. Fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind have been introduced and applied to evaluate the skewness and kurtosis of the fractional Poisson probability distribution function. A representation of the Bernoulli numbers in terms of fractional Stirling numbers of the second kind has been found. In the limit case when the fractional Poisson probability distribution becomes the Poisson probability distribution, all of the above listed developments and implementations turn into the well-known results of the quantum optics and the theory of combinatorial numbers.

Effects of Potential Lane-Changing Probability on Uniform Flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang Tieqiao; Huang Haijun; Shang Huayan

2010-01-01

In this paper, we use the car-following model with the anticipation effect of the potential lane-changing probability (Acta Mech. Sin. 24 (2008) 399) to investigate the effects of the potential lane-changing probability on uniform flow. The analytical and numerical results show that the potential lane-changing probability can enhance the speed and flow of uniform flow and that their increments are related to the density.

Probability as a Physical Motive

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Martin

2007-04-01

Full Text Available Recent theoretical progress in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, linking thephysical principle of Maximum Entropy Production (“MEP” to the information-theoretical“MaxEnt” principle of scientific inference, together with conjectures from theoreticalphysics that there may be no fundamental causal laws but only probabilities for physicalprocesses, and from evolutionary theory that biological systems expand “the adjacentpossible” as rapidly as possible, all lend credence to the proposition that probability shouldbe recognized as a fundamental physical motive. It is further proposed that spatial order andtemporal order are two aspects of the same thing, and that this is the essence of the secondlaw of thermodynamics.

Collision Probabilities for Finite Cylinders and Cuboids

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carlvik, I

1967-05-15

Analytical formulae have been derived for the collision probabilities of homogeneous finite cylinders and cuboids. The formula for the finite cylinder contains double integrals, and the formula for the cuboid only single integrals. Collision probabilities have been calculated by means of the formulae and compared with values obtained by other authors. It was found that the calculations using the analytical formulae are much quicker and give higher accuracy than Monte Carlo calculations.

Probability Theory, Not the Very Guide of Life

Science.gov (United States)

Juslin, Peter; Nilsson, Hakan; Winman, Anders

2009-01-01

Probability theory has long been taken as the self-evident norm against which to evaluate inductive reasoning, and classical demonstrations of violations of this norm include the conjunction error and base-rate neglect. Many of these phenomena require multiplicative probability integration, whereas people seem more inclined to linear additive…

Can a pile of scrap unmask a new high technology? The A4/V-2 No V89 Bäckebo-torpeden

Science.gov (United States)

Ingemar Skoog, A.

2013-04-01

Three months before the first V-2 rocket attack on London a test vehicle crashed in southern Sweden on June 13, 1944. At this time the Allied only had limited knowledge about the rocket (A4/V-2) from agent reports and information from the Polish resistance investigating some remains from a crashed test vehicle in Poland. London was confronted with a new weapon supposedly able to carry an explosive warhead of several tons some 250 km. The A4/V-2 rocket test vehicle number V89 broke apart shortly before impacting ground. In a short time 2 t of metal parts and electrical equipment was collected and transported to Stockholm for investigations. A first Swedish report was ready by July 21, 1944 and the rocket parts were then transported to England for further investigations. By August 18, 1944 the Royal Aircraft Establishment (RAE) had its preliminary report ready. But how close to reality can a complex vehicle be reconstructed and the performance calculated from a pile of scrap by investigators dealing with a technology not seen before? In the early 1940s the state of art of liquid propellant rocket technology outside Germany was limited and the size of a liquid rocket engine for the likely performance hardly imaginable. The Swedish and British reports, at that time classified as top secret, have since been released and permit a very detailed analysis of the task to reconstruct the rocket vehicle, the engine itself and its performance. An assessment of the occurrence at Peenemünde and how the rocket became astray and fell in southern Sweden, together with the analyses by Swedish and British military investigators give a unique insight into the true nature of the V89. It shows the real capabilities of early aeronautical accident investigation methods in combination with solid engineering knowledge to unmask a new high technology.

Cytologic diagnosis: expression of probability by clinical pathologists.

Science.gov (United States)

Christopher, Mary M; Hotz, Christine S

2004-01-01

Clinical pathologists use descriptive terms or modifiers to express the probability or likelihood of a cytologic diagnosis. Words are imprecise in meaning, however, and may be used and interpreted differently by pathologists and clinicians. The goals of this study were to 1) assess the frequency of use of 18 modifiers, 2) determine the probability of a positive diagnosis implied by the modifiers, 3) identify preferred modifiers for different levels of probability, 4) ascertain the importance of factors that affect expression of diagnostic certainty, and 5) evaluate differences based on gender, employment, and experience. We surveyed 202 clinical pathologists who were board-certified by the American College of Veterinary Pathologists (Clinical Pathology). Surveys were distributed in October 2001 and returned by e-mail, fax, or surface mail over a 2-month period. Results were analyzed by parametric and nonparametric tests. Survey response rate was 47.5% (n = 96) and primarily included clinical pathologists at veterinary schools (n = 58) and diagnostic laboratories (n = 31). Eleven of 18 terms were used "often" or "sometimes" by >/= 50% of respondents. Broad variability was found in the probability assigned to each term, especially those with median values of 75 to 90%. Preferred modifiers for 7 numerical probabilities ranging from 0 to 100% included 68 unique terms; however, a set of 10 terms was used by >/= 50% of respondents. Cellularity and quality of the sample, experience of the pathologist, and implications of the diagnosis were the most important factors affecting the expression of probability. Because of wide discrepancy in the implied likelihood of a diagnosis using words, defined terminology and controlled vocabulary may be useful in improving communication and the quality of data in cytology reporting.

There is plenty of room for motor learning at the bottom of the Fugl-Meyer: Acquisition of a novel bimanual wheelchair skill after chronic stroke using an unmasking technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarigul-Klijn, Yasemin; Lobo-Prat, Joan; Smith, Brendan W; Thayer, Sage; Zondervan, Daniel; Chan, Vicky; Stoller, Oliver; Reinkensmeyer, David J

2017-07-01

Many people with a stroke have a severely paretic arm, and it is often assumed that they are unable to learn novel, skilled behaviors that incorporate use of that arm. Here, we show that a group of people with chronic stroke (n = 5, upper extremity Fugl-Meyer scores: 31, 30, 26, 22, 8) learned to use their impaired arm to propel a novel, yoked-clutch lever drive wheelchair. Over six daily training sessions, each involving about 134 training movements with their "useless" arm, the users gradually achieved a 3-fold increase in wheelchair speed on average, with a 4-6 fold increase for three of the participants. They did this by learning a bimanual skill: pushing the levers with both arms while activating the yoked-clutches at the right time with their ipsilesional (i.e. "good") hand to propel the wheelchair forward. They perceived the task as highly motivating and useful. The speed improvements exceeded a 1.5-factor improvement observed when young, unimpaired users learned to propel the chair. The learning rate also exceeded a sample of learning rates from a variety of classic learning studies. These results suggest that appropriately-designed assistive technologies (or "unmasking technologies - UTs") can unleash a powerful, latent ability for motor learning even for severely paretic arms. While UTs may not reduce clinical impairment, they may facilitate large improvements in a specific functional ability.

Introduction to probability and measure

CERN Document Server

Parthasarathy, K R

2005-01-01

According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.

Finite-size scaling of survival probability in branching processes

OpenAIRE

Garcia-Millan, Rosalba; Font-Clos, Francesc; Corral, Alvaro

2014-01-01

Branching processes pervade many models in statistical physics. We investigate the survival probability of a Galton-Watson branching process after a finite number of generations. We reveal the finite-size scaling law of the survival probability for a given branching process ruled by a probability distribution of the number of offspring per element whose standard deviation is finite, obtaining the exact scaling function as well as the critical exponents. Our findings prove the universal behavi...

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

OpenAIRE

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Background: Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. Method: We randomized 55 In...

Problems involved in calculating the probability of rare occurrences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tittes, E.

1986-01-01

Also with regard to the characteristics such as occurrence probability or occurrence rate, there are limits which have to be observed, or else probability data and thus the concept of determinable risk itself will lose its practical value. The mathematical models applied for probability assessment are based on data supplied by the insurance companies, reliability experts in the automobile industry, or by planning experts in the field of traffic or information supply. (DG) [de

Upper Bounds for Ruin Probability with Stochastic Investment Return

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHANG Lihong

2005-01-01

Risk models with stochastic investment return are widely held in practice, as well as in more challenging research fields. Risk theory is mainly concerned with ruin probability, and a tight bound for ruin probability is the best for practical use. This paper presents a discrete time risk model with stochastic investment return. Conditional expectation properties and martingale inequalities are used to obtain both exponential and non-exponential upper bounds for the ruin probability.

Probable Gastrointestinal Toxicity of Kombucha Tea

Science.gov (United States)

Srinivasan, Radhika; Smolinske, Susan; Greenbaum, David

1997-01-01

Kombucha tea is a health beverage made by incubating the Kombucha “mushroom” in tea and sugar. Although therapeutic benefits have been attributed to the drink, neither its beneficial effects nor adverse side effects have been reported widely in the scientific literature. Side effects probably related to consumption of Kombucha tea are reported in four patients. Two presented with symptoms of allergic reaction, the third with jaundice, and the fourth with nausea, vomiting, and head and neck pain. In all four, use of Kombucha tea in proximity to onset of symptoms and symptom resolution on cessation of tea drinking suggest a probable etiologic association. PMID:9346462

A probable new type of osteopenic bone disease

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Widhe, Torulf L. [Department of Orthopaedics, Huddinge University Hospital (Sweden)

2002-06-01

A probable new type of osteopenic bone disease in two sisters and one female cousin is described. In infancy, the radiological findings were osteopenia, coxa vara, periosteal cloaking, bowing of the long bones, and flaring of the metaphyses. During growth, spinal pathology developed with compression of the vertebral bodies and scoliosis in one girl and kyphosis in another. All three children had genu valgum and two developed severe S-shaped bowing of the tibiae. Growth was stunted. Inheritance of this disorder is probably recessive. Type I and III collagen biosynthesis was normal. This condition is probably a hitherto undescribed form of osteogenesis imperfecta type III or a new bone disease. (orig.)

A probable new type of osteopenic bone disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Widhe, Torulf L.

2002-01-01

A probable new type of osteopenic bone disease in two sisters and one female cousin is described. In infancy, the radiological findings were osteopenia, coxa vara, periosteal cloaking, bowing of the long bones, and flaring of the metaphyses. During growth, spinal pathology developed with compression of the vertebral bodies and scoliosis in one girl and kyphosis in another. All three children had genu valgum and two developed severe S-shaped bowing of the tibiae. Growth was stunted. Inheritance of this disorder is probably recessive. Type I and III collagen biosynthesis was normal. This condition is probably a hitherto undescribed form of osteogenesis imperfecta type III or a new bone disease. (orig.)

Probabilistic Cloning of Three Real States with Optimal Success Probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Rui, Pin-shu

2017-06-01

We investigate the probabilistic quantum cloning (PQC) of three real states with average probability distribution. To get the analytic forms of the optimal success probabilities we assume that the three states have only two pairwise inner products. Based on the optimal success probabilities, we derive the explicit form of 1 →2 PQC for cloning three real states. The unitary operation needed in the PQC process is worked out too. The optimal success probabilities are also generalized to the M→ N PQC case.

A Quantum Theoretical Explanation for Probability Judgment Errors

Science.gov (United States)

Busemeyer, Jerome R.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.; Franco, Riccardo; Trueblood, Jennifer S.

2011-01-01

A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction and disjunction fallacies, averaging effects, unpacking effects, and order effects on inference. On the one hand, quantum theory is similar to other categorization and memory models of cognition in that it relies on vector…

The probability representation as a new formulation of quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Man'ko, Margarita A; Man'ko, Vladimir I

2012-01-01

We present a new formulation of conventional quantum mechanics, in which the notion of a quantum state is identified via a fair probability distribution of the position measured in a reference frame of the phase space with rotated axes. In this formulation, the quantum evolution equation as well as the equation for finding energy levels are expressed as linear equations for the probability distributions that determine the quantum states. We also give the integral transforms relating the probability distribution (called the tomographic-probability distribution or the state tomogram) to the density matrix and the Wigner function and discuss their connection with the Radon transform. Qudit states are considered and the invertible map of the state density operators onto the probability vectors is discussed. The tomographic entropies and entropic uncertainty relations are reviewed. We demonstrate the uncertainty relations for the position and momentum and the entropic uncertainty relations in the tomographic-probability representation, which is suitable for an experimental check of the uncertainty relations.

Probability in reasoning: a developmental test on conditionals.

Science.gov (United States)

Barrouillet, Pierre; Gauffroy, Caroline

2015-04-01

Probabilistic theories have been claimed to constitute a new paradigm for the psychology of reasoning. A key assumption of these theories is captured by what they call the Equation, the hypothesis that the meaning of the conditional is probabilistic in nature and that the probability of If p then q is the conditional probability, in such a way that P(if p then q)=P(q|p). Using the probabilistic truth-table task in which participants are required to evaluate the probability of If p then q sentences, the present study explored the pervasiveness of the Equation through ages (from early adolescence to adulthood), types of conditionals (basic, causal, and inducements) and contents. The results reveal that the Equation is a late developmental achievement only endorsed by a narrow majority of educated adults for certain types of conditionals depending on the content they involve. Age-related changes in evaluating the probability of all the conditionals studied closely mirror the development of truth-value judgements observed in previous studies with traditional truth-table tasks. We argue that our modified mental model theory can account for this development, and hence for the findings related with the probability task, which do not consequently support the probabilistic approach of human reasoning over alternative theories. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The cardiac safety of aripiprazole treatment in patients at high risk for torsade

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Polcwiartek, Christoffer; Sneider, Benjamin; Graff, Claus

2015-01-01

RATIONALE: Certain antipsychotics increase the risk of heart rate-corrected QT (QTc) prolongation and consequently Torsades de Pointes (TdP) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). Drug-induced Brugada syndrome (BrS) is also associated with SCD. Most SCDs occur in patients with additional cardiac risk fa...

Model uncertainty and probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parry, G.W.

1994-01-01

This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

Uncertainty the soul of modeling, probability & statistics

CERN Document Server

Briggs, William

2016-01-01

This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance". The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, suc...

DECOFF Probabilities of Failed Operations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gintautas, Tomas

2015-01-01

A statistical procedure of estimation of Probabilities of Failed Operations is described and exemplified using ECMWF weather forecasts and SIMO output from Rotor Lift test case models. Also safety factor influence is investigated. DECOFF statistical method is benchmarked against standard Alpha-factor...

Data analysis & probability drill sheets : grades 6-8

CERN Document Server

Forest, Chris

2011-01-01

For grades 6-8, our Common Core State Standards-based resource meets the data analysis & probability concepts addressed by the NCTM standards and encourages your students to review the concepts in unique ways. Each drill sheet contains warm-up and timed drill activities for the student to practice data analysis & probability concepts.

Joint probability distributions for a class of non-Markovian processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Baule, A; Friedrich, R

2005-02-01

We consider joint probability distributions for the class of coupled Langevin equations introduced by Fogedby [H. C. Fogedby, Phys. Rev. E 50, 1657 (1994)]. We generalize well-known results for the single-time probability distributions to the case of N -time joint probability distributions. It is shown that these probability distribution functions can be obtained by an integral transform from distributions of a Markovian process. The integral kernel obeys a partial differential equation with fractional time derivatives reflecting the non-Markovian character of the process.

Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Lucile M.

1994-01-01

The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.

Probability matching and strategy availability.

Science.gov (United States)

Koehler, Derek J; James, Greta

2010-09-01

Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought to their attention, more participants subsequently engage in maximizing. Third, matchers are more likely than maximizers to base decisions in other tasks on their initial intuitions, suggesting that they are more inclined to use a choice strategy that comes to mind quickly. These results indicate that a substantial subset of probability matchers are victims of "underthinking" rather than "overthinking": They fail to engage in sufficient deliberation to generate a superior alternative to the matching strategy that comes so readily to mind.

Large deviations and idempotent probability

CERN Document Server

Puhalskii, Anatolii

2001-01-01

In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...

Sufficient Statistics for Divergence and the Probability of Misclassification

Science.gov (United States)

Quirein, J.

1972-01-01

One particular aspect is considered of the feature selection problem which results from the transformation x=Bz, where B is a k by n matrix of rank k and k is or = to n. It is shown that in general, such a transformation results in a loss of information. In terms of the divergence, this is equivalent to the fact that the average divergence computed using the variable x is less than or equal to the average divergence computed using the variable z. A loss of information in terms of the probability of misclassification is shown to be equivalent to the fact that the probability of misclassification computed using variable x is greater than or equal to the probability of misclassification computed using variable z. First, the necessary facts relating k-dimensional and n-dimensional integrals are derived. Then the mentioned results about the divergence and probability of misclassification are derived. Finally it is shown that if no information is lost (in x = Bz) as measured by the divergence, then no information is lost as measured by the probability of misclassification.

Fractal supersymmetric QM, Geometric Probability and the Riemann Hypothesis

CERN Document Server

Castro, C

2004-01-01

The Riemann's hypothesis (RH) states that the nontrivial zeros of the Riemann zeta-function are of the form $ s_n =1/2+i\\lambda_n $. Earlier work on the RH based on supersymmetric QM, whose potential was related to the Gauss-Jacobi theta series, allows to provide the proper framework to construct the well defined algorithm to compute the probability to find a zero (an infinity of zeros) in the critical line. Geometric probability theory furnishes the answer to the very difficult question whether the probability that the RH is true is indeed equal to unity or not. To test the validity of this geometric probabilistic framework to compute the probability if the RH is true, we apply it directly to the the hyperbolic sine function $ \\sinh (s) $ case which obeys a trivial analog of the RH (the HSRH). Its zeros are equally spaced in the imaginary axis $ s_n = 0 + i n \\pi $. The geometric probability to find a zero (and an infinity of zeros) in the imaginary axis is exactly unity. We proceed with a fractal supersymme...

28 CFR 2.101 - Probable cause hearing and determination.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... who have given information upon which revocation may be based) at a postponed probable cause hearing... attendance, unless good cause is found for not allowing confrontation. Whenever a probable cause hearing is...

Dopaminergic Drug Effects on Probability Weighting during Risky Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Ojala, Karita E; Janssen, Lieneke K; Hashemi, Mahur M; Timmer, Monique H M; Geurts, Dirk E M; Ter Huurne, Niels P; Cools, Roshan; Sescousse, Guillaume

2018-01-01

Dopamine has been associated with risky decision-making, as well as with pathological gambling, a behavioral addiction characterized by excessive risk-taking behavior. However, the specific mechanisms through which dopamine might act to foster risk-taking and pathological gambling remain elusive. Here we test the hypothesis that this might be achieved, in part, via modulation of subjective probability weighting during decision making. Human healthy controls ( n = 21) and pathological gamblers ( n = 16) played a decision-making task involving choices between sure monetary options and risky gambles both in the gain and loss domains. Each participant played the task twice, either under placebo or the dopamine D 2 /D 3 receptor antagonist sulpiride, in a double-blind counterbalanced design. A prospect theory modelling approach was used to estimate subjective probability weighting and sensitivity to monetary outcomes. Consistent with prospect theory, we found that participants presented a distortion in the subjective weighting of probabilities, i.e., they overweighted low probabilities and underweighted moderate to high probabilities, both in the gain and loss domains. Compared with placebo, sulpiride attenuated this distortion in the gain domain. Across drugs, the groups did not differ in their probability weighting, although gamblers consistently underweighted losing probabilities in the placebo condition. Overall, our results reveal that dopamine D 2 /D 3 receptor antagonism modulates the subjective weighting of probabilities in the gain domain, in the direction of more objective, economically rational decision making.

Dopaminergic Drug Effects on Probability Weighting during Risky Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Timmer, Monique H. M.; ter Huurne, Niels P.

2018-01-01

Abstract Dopamine has been associated with risky decision-making, as well as with pathological gambling, a behavioral addiction characterized by excessive risk-taking behavior. However, the specific mechanisms through which dopamine might act to foster risk-taking and pathological gambling remain elusive. Here we test the hypothesis that this might be achieved, in part, via modulation of subjective probability weighting during decision making. Human healthy controls (n = 21) and pathological gamblers (n = 16) played a decision-making task involving choices between sure monetary options and risky gambles both in the gain and loss domains. Each participant played the task twice, either under placebo or the dopamine D2/D3 receptor antagonist sulpiride, in a double-blind counterbalanced design. A prospect theory modelling approach was used to estimate subjective probability weighting and sensitivity to monetary outcomes. Consistent with prospect theory, we found that participants presented a distortion in the subjective weighting of probabilities, i.e., they overweighted low probabilities and underweighted moderate to high probabilities, both in the gain and loss domains. Compared with placebo, sulpiride attenuated this distortion in the gain domain. Across drugs, the groups did not differ in their probability weighting, although gamblers consistently underweighted losing probabilities in the placebo condition. Overall, our results reveal that dopamine D2/D3 receptor antagonism modulates the subjective weighting of probabilities in the gain domain, in the direction of more objective, economically rational decision making. PMID:29632870

Quantum probabilities of composite events in quantum measurements with multimode states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D

2013-01-01

The problem of defining quantum probabilities of composite events is considered. This problem is of great importance for the theory of quantum measurements and for quantum decision theory, which is a part of measurement theory. We show that the Lüders probability of consecutive measurements is a transition probability between two quantum states and that this probability cannot be treated as a quantum extension of the classical conditional probability. The Wigner distribution is shown to be a weighted transition probability that cannot be accepted as a quantum extension of the classical joint probability. We suggest the definition of quantum joint probabilities by introducing composite events in multichannel measurements. The notion of measurements under uncertainty is defined. We demonstrate that the necessary condition for mode interference is the entanglement of the composite prospect together with the entanglement of the composite statistical state. As an illustration, we consider an example of a quantum game. Special attention is paid to the application of the approach to systems with multimode states, such as atoms, molecules, quantum dots, or trapped Bose-condensed atoms with several coherent modes. (paper)

Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

Science.gov (United States)

Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M; Edwards, Thomas C; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M

2014-12-01

Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate ( r ) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density ( N ) relate to occurrence probability ( P occ ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with P occ , while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with P occ . Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

The Probability Approach to English If-Conditional Sentences

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Mei

2012-01-01

Users of the Probability Approach choose the right one from four basic types of conditional sentences--factual, predictive, hypothetical and counterfactual conditionals, by judging how likely (i.e. the probability) the event in the result-clause will take place when the condition in the if-clause is met. Thirty-three students from the experimental…

Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.; Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Whittier, Joanna B.

2018-01-01

Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

Betting on Illusory Patterns: Probability Matching in Habitual Gamblers.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Wilke, Andreas; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; McCanney, Paige; Barrett, H Clark

2016-03-01

Why do people gamble? A large body of research suggests that cognitive distortions play an important role in pathological gambling. Many of these distortions are specific cases of a more general misperception of randomness, specifically of an illusory perception of patterns in random sequences. In this article, we provide further evidence for the assumption that gamblers are particularly prone to perceiving illusory patterns. In particular, we compared habitual gamblers to a matched sample of community members with regard to how much they exhibit the choice anomaly 'probability matching'. Probability matching describes the tendency to match response proportions to outcome probabilities when predicting binary outcomes. It leads to a lower expected accuracy than the maximizing strategy of predicting the most likely event on each trial. Previous research has shown that an illusory perception of patterns in random sequences fuels probability matching. So does impulsivity, which is also reported to be higher in gamblers. We therefore hypothesized that gamblers will exhibit more probability matching than non-gamblers, which was confirmed in a controlled laboratory experiment. Additionally, gamblers scored much lower than community members on the cognitive reflection task, which indicates higher impulsivity. This difference could account for the difference in probability matching between the samples. These results suggest that gamblers are more willing to bet impulsively on perceived illusory patterns.

Selection of risk reduction portfolios under interval-valued probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toppila, Antti; Salo, Ahti

2017-01-01

A central problem in risk management is that of identifying the optimal combination (or portfolio) of improvements that enhance the reliability of the system most through reducing failure event probabilities, subject to the availability of resources. This optimal portfolio can be sensitive with regard to epistemic uncertainties about the failure events' probabilities. In this paper, we develop an optimization model to support the allocation of resources to improvements that mitigate risks in coherent systems in which interval-valued probabilities defined by lower and upper bounds are employed to capture epistemic uncertainties. Decision recommendations are based on portfolio dominance: a resource allocation portfolio is dominated if there exists another portfolio that improves system reliability (i) at least as much for all feasible failure probabilities and (ii) strictly more for some feasible probabilities. Based on non-dominated portfolios, recommendations about improvements to implement are derived by inspecting in how many non-dominated portfolios a given improvement is contained. We present an exact method for computing the non-dominated portfolios. We also present an approximate method that simplifies the reliability function using total order interactions so that larger problem instances can be solved with reasonable computational effort. - Highlights: • Reliability allocation under epistemic uncertainty about probabilities. • Comparison of alternatives using dominance. • Computational methods for generating the non-dominated alternatives. • Deriving decision recommendations that are robust with respect to epistemic uncertainty.

Proposal for Modified Damage Probability Distribution Functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Hansen, Peter Friis

1996-01-01

Immidiately following the Estonia disaster, the Nordic countries establishe a project entitled "Safety of Passenger/RoRo Vessels" As part of this project the present proposal for modified damage stability probability distribution functions has been developed. and submitted to "Sub-committee on st......Immidiately following the Estonia disaster, the Nordic countries establishe a project entitled "Safety of Passenger/RoRo Vessels" As part of this project the present proposal for modified damage stability probability distribution functions has been developed. and submitted to "Sub...

Nash equilibrium with lower probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Groes, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

1998-01-01

We generalize the concept of Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies for strategic form games to allow for ambiguity in the players' expectations. In contrast to other contributions, we model ambiguity by means of so-called lower probability measures or belief functions, which makes it possible...

Failure frequencies and probabilities applicable to BWR and PWR piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bush, S.H.; Chockie, A.D.

1996-03-01

This report deals with failure probabilities and failure frequencies of nuclear plant piping and the failure frequencies of flanges and bellows. Piping failure probabilities are derived from Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events (PRAISE) computer code calculations based on fatigue and intergranular stress corrosion as failure mechanisms. Values for both failure probabilities and failure frequencies are cited from several sources to yield a better evaluation of the spread in mean and median values as well as the widths of the uncertainty bands. A general conclusion is that the numbers from WASH-1400 often used in PRAs are unduly conservative. Failure frequencies for both leaks and large breaks tend to be higher than would be calculated using the failure probabilities, primarily because the frequencies are based on a relatively small number of operating years. Also, failure probabilities are substantially lower because of the probability distributions used in PRAISE calculations. A general conclusion is that large LOCA probability values calculated using PRAISE will be quite small, on the order of less than 1E-8 per year (<1E-8/year). The values in this report should be recognized as having inherent limitations and should be considered as estimates and not absolute values. 24 refs 24 refs

Conditional probability of the tornado missile impact given a tornado occurrence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodman, J.; Koch, J.E.

1982-01-01

Using an approach based on statistical mechanics, an expression for the probability of the first missile strike is developed. The expression depends on two generic parameters (injection probability eta(F) and height distribution psi(Z,F)), which are developed in this study, and one plant specific parameter (number of potential missiles N/sub p/). The expression for the joint probability of simultaneous impact of muitiple targets is also developed. This espression is applicable to calculation of the probability of common cause failure due to tornado missiles. It is shown that the probability of the first missile strike can be determined using a uniform missile distribution model. It is also shown that the conditional probability of the second strike, given the first, is underestimated by the uniform model. The probability of the second strike is greatly increased if the missiles are in clusters large enough to cover both targets

Foundations of quantization for probability distributions

CERN Document Server

Graf, Siegfried

2000-01-01

Due to the rapidly increasing need for methods of data compression, quantization has become a flourishing field in signal and image processing and information theory. The same techniques are also used in statistics (cluster analysis), pattern recognition, and operations research (optimal location of service centers). The book gives the first mathematically rigorous account of the fundamental theory underlying these applications. The emphasis is on the asymptotics of quantization errors for absolutely continuous and special classes of singular probabilities (surface measures, self-similar measures) presenting some new results for the first time. Written for researchers and graduate students in probability theory the monograph is of potential interest to all people working in the disciplines mentioned above.

Probabilities, causes and propensities in physics

CERN Document Server

Suárez, Mauricio

2010-01-01

This volume defends a novel approach to the philosophy of physics: it is the first book devoted to a comparative study of probability, causality, and propensity, and their various interrelations, within the context of contemporary physics - particularly quantum and statistical physics. The philosophical debates and distinctions are firmly grounded upon examples from actual physics, thus exemplifying a robustly empiricist approach. The essays, by both prominent scholars in the field and promising young researchers, constitute a pioneer effort in bringing out the connections between probabilistic, causal and dispositional aspects of the quantum domain. This book will appeal to specialists in philosophy and foundations of physics, philosophy of science in general, metaphysics, ontology of physics theories, and philosophy of probability.

Fisher classifier and its probability of error estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Chittineni, C. B.

1979-01-01

Computationally efficient expressions are derived for estimating the probability of error using the leave-one-out method. The optimal threshold for the classification of patterns projected onto Fisher's direction is derived. A simple generalization of the Fisher classifier to multiple classes is presented. Computational expressions are developed for estimating the probability of error of the multiclass Fisher classifier.

The estimation of collision probabilities in complicated geometries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roth, M.J.

1969-04-01

This paper demonstrates how collision probabilities in complicated geometries may be estimated. It is assumed that the reactor core may be divided into a number of cells each with simple geometry so that a collision probability matrix can be calculated for each cell by standard methods. It is then shown how these may be joined together. (author)

Converting dose distributions into tumour control probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nahum, A.E.

1996-01-01

The endpoints in radiotherapy that are truly of relevance are not dose distributions but the probability of local control, sometimes known as the Tumour Control Probability (TCP) and the Probability of Normal Tissue Complications (NTCP). A model for the estimation of TCP based on simple radiobiological considerations is described. It is shown that incorporation of inter-patient heterogeneity into the radiosensitivity parameter a through s a can result in a clinically realistic slope for the dose-response curve. The model is applied to inhomogeneous target dose distributions in order to demonstrate the relationship between dose uniformity and s a . The consequences of varying clonogenic density are also explored. Finally the model is applied to the target-volume DVHs for patients in a clinical trial of conformal pelvic radiotherapy; the effect of dose inhomogeneities on distributions of TCP are shown as well as the potential benefits of customizing the target dose according to normal-tissue DVHs. (author). 37 refs, 9 figs

Converting dose distributions into tumour control probability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nahum, A E [The Royal Marsden Hospital, London (United Kingdom). Joint Dept. of Physics

1996-08-01

The endpoints in radiotherapy that are truly of relevance are not dose distributions but the probability of local control, sometimes known as the Tumour Control Probability (TCP) and the Probability of Normal Tissue Complications (NTCP). A model for the estimation of TCP based on simple radiobiological considerations is described. It is shown that incorporation of inter-patient heterogeneity into the radiosensitivity parameter a through s{sub a} can result in a clinically realistic slope for the dose-response curve. The model is applied to inhomogeneous target dose distributions in order to demonstrate the relationship between dose uniformity and s{sub a}. The consequences of varying clonogenic density are also explored. Finally the model is applied to the target-volume DVHs for patients in a clinical trial of conformal pelvic radiotherapy; the effect of dose inhomogeneities on distributions of TCP are shown as well as the potential benefits of customizing the target dose according to normal-tissue DVHs. (author). 37 refs, 9 figs.

Pointwise probability reinforcements for robust statistical inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Frénay, Benoît; Verleysen, Michel

2014-02-01

Statistical inference using machine learning techniques may be difficult with small datasets because of abnormally frequent data (AFDs). AFDs are observations that are much more frequent in the training sample that they should be, with respect to their theoretical probability, and include e.g. outliers. Estimates of parameters tend to be biased towards models which support such data. This paper proposes to introduce pointwise probability reinforcements (PPRs): the probability of each observation is reinforced by a PPR and a regularisation allows controlling the amount of reinforcement which compensates for AFDs. The proposed solution is very generic, since it can be used to robustify any statistical inference method which can be formulated as a likelihood maximisation. Experiments show that PPRs can be easily used to tackle regression, classification and projection: models are freed from the influence of outliers. Moreover, outliers can be filtered manually since an abnormality degree is obtained for each observation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Retrocausality and conditional probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stuart, C.I.J.M.

1989-01-01

Costa de Beauregard has proposed that physical causality be identified with conditional probability. The proposal is shown to be vulnerable on two accounts. The first, though mathematically trivial, seems to be decisive so far as the current formulation of the proposal is concerned. The second lies in a physical inconsistency which seems to have its source in a Copenhagenlike disavowal of realism in quantum mechanics. 6 refs. (Author)

Reliability of structures by using probability and fatigue theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Ouk Sub; Kim, Dong Hyeok; Park, Yeon Chang

2008-01-01

Methodologies to calculate failure probability and to estimate the reliability of fatigue loaded structures are developed. The applicability of the methodologies is evaluated with the help of the fatigue crack growth models suggested by Paris and Walker. The probability theories such as the FORM (first order reliability method), the SORM (second order reliability method) and the MCS (Monte Carlo simulation) are utilized. It is found that the failure probability decreases with the increase of the design fatigue life and the applied minimum stress, the decrease of the initial edge crack size, the applied maximum stress and the slope of Paris equation. Furthermore, according to the sensitivity analysis of random variables, the slope of Pairs equation affects the failure probability dominantly among other random variables in the Paris and the Walker models

Satellite Gravity Transforms Unmask Tectonic Pattern of Arabian-African Region

Science.gov (United States)

Eppelbaum, Lev; Katz, Youri

2017-04-01

Satellite derived geophysical gravity data are the modern powerful tool of regional tectono-geophysical examination of the Earth's crust and upper mantle. It is well known that regional long-term seismological prognosis, strategy of searching economic deposits and many other important geological-geophysical problems are based mainly on constructions derived from the combined tectono-geophysical zonation. Some authors' experience of the tectono-geophysical zonation in the Eastern Mediterranean (both sea and land) with satellite derived gravity field (Eppelbaum and Katz, 2015a, 2015b) indicates a high effectiveness of the data employment for delineation of different tectono-structural units. Therefore, on the basis of the previous successive application, satellite derived gravity field analysis was applied for a giant (covering > 10 mln. km2) and complex Arabian-African region (including Zagros Mts.). The gravity field retracked from the Geosat and ERS-1 altimetry (e.g., Sandwell and Smith, 2009) was processed by the use of different mathematical apparatus employment enabling to underline these or those tectonic (geodynamic) features of the region under study. The main goals of present investigation are following: (1) employment of a new powerful regional geophysical tool - satellite derived gravity data and its transforms for unmasking some buried tectonic and geodynamic peculiarities of the study area, (2) finding definite relationships between the novel tectonic map and the gravity field transformations, (3) development of a novel tectonic map of this area (on the basis of careful examination of and generalization of available geological and geophysical (mostly satellite gravity) data). The compiled gravity map (for the map compiling more than 4 mln. observations were utilized) with the main tectonic features shows the intricate gravity pattern of the investigated area. An initial analysis of the gravity field behavior enabled to separate two main types of