WorldWideScience

Sample records for unlimited forecast horizon

  1. On Long Memory Origins and Forecast Horizons

    Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo

    Most long memory forecasting studies assume that the memory is generated by the fractional difference operator. We argue that the most cited theoretical arguments for the presence of long memory do not imply the fractional difference operator, and assess the performance of the autoregressive...... fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model when forecasting series with long memory generated by nonfractional processes. We find that high-order autoregressive (AR) models produce similar or superior forecast performance than ARFIMA models at short horizons. Nonetheless, as the forecast horizon...... increases, the ARFIMA models tend to dominate in forecast performance. Hence, ARFIMA models are well suited for forecasts of long memory processes regardless of the long memory generating mechanism, particularly for medium and long forecast horizons. Additionally, we analyse the forecasting performance...

  2. Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts. The DOE's energy price forecasts

    Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R.; Boris, Keith

    2009-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy's (DOE) quarterly price forecasts for energy commodities are examined to determine the incremental information provided at the one-through four-quarter forecast horizons. A direct test for determining information content at alternative forecast horizons, developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez [Vuchelen, J. and Gutierrez, M.-I. 'A Direct Test of the Information Content of the OECD Growth Forecasts.' International Journal of Forecasting. 21(2005):103-117.], is used. The results suggest that the DOE's price forecasts for crude oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel do indeed provide incremental information out to three-quarters ahead, while natural gas and electricity forecasts are informative out to the four-quarter horizon. In contrast, the DOE's coal price forecasts at two-, three-, and four-quarters ahead provide no incremental information beyond that provided for the one-quarter horizon. Recommendations of how to use these results for making forecast adjustments is also provided. (author)

  3. Distribution load forecast with interactive correction of horizon loads

    Glamochanin, V.; Andonov, D.; Gagovski, I.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents the interactive distribution load forecast application that performs the distribution load forecast with interactive correction of horizon loads. It consists of two major parts implemented in Fortran and Visual Basic. The Fortran part is used for the forecasts computations. It consists of two methods: Load Transfer Coupling Curve Fitting (LTCCF) and load Forecast Using Curve Shape Clustering (FUCSC). LTCCF is used to 'correct' the contaminated data because of load transfer among neighboring distribution areas. FUCSC uses curve shape clustering to forecast the distribution loads of small areas. The forecast for each small area is achieved by using the shape of corresponding cluster curve. The comparison of forecasted loads of the area with historical data will be used as a tool for the correction of the estimated horizon load. The Visual Basic part is used to provide flexible interactive user-friendly environment. (author). 5 refs., 3 figs

  4. High-dimensional covariance forecasting for short intra-day horizons

    Oomen, R.C.A.

    2010-01-01

    Asset return covariances at intra-day horizons are known to tend towards zero due to market microstructure effects. Thus, traders who simply scale their daily covariance forecast to match their trading horizon are likely to over-estimate the actual experienced asset dependence. In this paper, some

  5. Booking horizon forecasting with dynamic updating: A case study of hotel reservation data

    Haensel, A.; Koole, G.M.

    2011-01-01

    A highly accurate demand forecast is fundamental to the success of every revenue management model. As is often required in both practice and theory, we aim to forecast the accumulated booking curve, as well as the number of reservations expected for each day in the booking horizon. To reduce the

  6. Improving Ecological Forecasting: Data Assimilation Enhances the Ecological Forecast Horizon of a Complex Food Web

    Massoud, E. C.; Huisman, J.; Benincà, E.; Bouten, W.; Vrugt, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Species abundances in ecological communities can display chaotic non-equilibrium dynamics. A characteristic feature of chaotic systems is that long-term prediction of the system's trajectory is fundamentally impossible. How then should we make predictions for complex multi-species communities? We explore data assimilation (DA) with the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to fuse a two-predator-two-prey model with abundance data from a long term experiment of a plankton community which displays chaotic dynamics. The results show that DA improves substantially the predictability and ecological forecast horizon of complex community dynamics. In addition, we show that DA helps provide guidance on measurement design, for instance on defining the frequency of observations. The study presented here is highly innovative, because DA methods at the current stage are almost unknown in ecology.

  7. An investigation of forecast horizon and observation fit’s influence on an econometric rate forecast model in the liner shipping industry

    Nielsen, Peter; Jiang, Liping; Rytter, Niels Gorm Malý

    2014-01-01

    This paper evaluates the influence of forecast horizon and observation fit on the robustness and performance of a specific freight rate forecast model used in the liner shipping industry. In the first stage of the research, a forecast model used to predict container freight rate development...... of the forecast horizon and observation fit and their interactions on the forecast model's performance. The results underline the complicated nature of creating a suitable forecast model by balancing business needs, a desire to fit a good model and achieve high accuracy. There is strong empirical evidence from...... this study; that a robust model is preferable, that overfitting is a true danger, and that a balance must be achieved between forecast horizon and the number of observations used to fit the model. In addition, methodological guidance has also been provided on how to test, design, and choose the superior...

  8. Short-term forecasting of individual household electricity loads with investigating impact of data resolution and forecast horizon

    Yildiz Baran

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Smart grid components such as smart home and battery energy management systems, high penetration of renewable energy systems, and demand response activities, require accurate electricity demand forecasts for the successful operation of the electricity distribution networks. For example, in order to optimize residential PV generation and electricity consumption and plan battery charge-discharge regimes by scheduling household appliances, forecasts need to target and be tailored to individual household electricity loads. The recent uptake of smart meters allows easier access to electricity readings at very fine resolutions; hence, it is possible to utilize this source of available data to create forecast models. In this paper, models which predominantly use smart meter data alongside with weather variables, or smart meter based models (SMBM, are implemented to forecast individual household loads. Well-known machine learning models such as artificial neural networks (ANN, support vector machines (SVM and Least-Square SVM are implemented within the SMBM framework and their performance is compared. The analysed household stock consists of 14 households from the state of New South Wales, Australia, with at least a year worth of 5 min. resolution data. In order for the results to be comparable between different households, our study first investigates household load profiles according to their volatility and reveals the relationship between load standard deviation and forecast performance. The analysis extends previous research by evaluating forecasts over four different data resolution; 5, 15, 30 and 60 min, each resolution analysed for four different horizons; 1, 6, 12 and 24 h ahead. Both, data resolution and forecast horizon, proved to have significant impact on the forecast performance and the obtained results provide important insights for the operation of various smart grid applications. Finally, it is shown that the load profile of some

  9. Short-term forecasting of individual household electricity loads with investigating impact of data resolution and forecast horizon

    Yildiz, Baran; Bilbao, Jose I.; Dore, Jonathon; Sproul, Alistair B.

    2018-05-01

    Smart grid components such as smart home and battery energy management systems, high penetration of renewable energy systems, and demand response activities, require accurate electricity demand forecasts for the successful operation of the electricity distribution networks. For example, in order to optimize residential PV generation and electricity consumption and plan battery charge-discharge regimes by scheduling household appliances, forecasts need to target and be tailored to individual household electricity loads. The recent uptake of smart meters allows easier access to electricity readings at very fine resolutions; hence, it is possible to utilize this source of available data to create forecast models. In this paper, models which predominantly use smart meter data alongside with weather variables, or smart meter based models (SMBM), are implemented to forecast individual household loads. Well-known machine learning models such as artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM) and Least-Square SVM are implemented within the SMBM framework and their performance is compared. The analysed household stock consists of 14 households from the state of New South Wales, Australia, with at least a year worth of 5 min. resolution data. In order for the results to be comparable between different households, our study first investigates household load profiles according to their volatility and reveals the relationship between load standard deviation and forecast performance. The analysis extends previous research by evaluating forecasts over four different data resolution; 5, 15, 30 and 60 min, each resolution analysed for four different horizons; 1, 6, 12 and 24 h ahead. Both, data resolution and forecast horizon, proved to have significant impact on the forecast performance and the obtained results provide important insights for the operation of various smart grid applications. Finally, it is shown that the load profile of some households vary

  10. Selection of a Planning Horizon for a Hybrid Microgrid Using Simulated Wind Forecasts

    2014-12-01

    microgrid robustness and efficiency and may provide operators with real-time guidance and control policies for microgrid operation. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The...A PLANNING HORIZON FOR A HYBRID MICROGRID USING SIMULATED WIND FORECASTS Mumtaz Karatas Turkish Naval Academy Tuzla, Istanbul, 34942, TURKEY Emily M...Craparo Dashi I. Singham Naval Postgraduate School 1411 Cunningham Road Monterey, CA, 93943 USA ABSTRACT Hybrid microgrids containing renewable energy

  11. Long forecast horizon to improve Real Time Control of urban drainage systems

    Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2014-01-01

    Global Real Time Control (RTC) of urban drainage system is increasingly seen as cost-effective solution in order to respond to increasing performance demand (e.g. reduction of Combined Sewer Overflow, protection of sensitive areas as bathing water etc.). The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA......) strategy was developed to operate Urban Drainage Systems (UDS) in order to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, the expected runoff volume based on a 2-hours radar forecast model and an estimated uncertainty of the runoff forecast....... However, such temporal horizon (1-2 hours) is relatively short when used for the operation of large storage facilities, which may require a few days to be emptied. This limits the performance of the optimization and control in reducing combined sewer overflow and in preparing for possible flooding. Based...

  12. Solar particle radiation storms forecasting and analysis the HESPERIA HORIZON 2020 project and beyond

    Crosby, Norma

    2018-01-01

    Solar energetic particles (SEPs) emitted from the Sun are a major space weather hazard motivating the development of predictive capabilities. This book presents the results and findings of the HESPERIA (High Energy Solar Particle Events forecasting and Analysis) project of the EU HORIZON 2020 programme. It discusses the forecasting operational tools developed within the project, and presents progress to SEP research contributed by HESPERIA both from the observational as well as the SEP modelling perspective. Using multi-frequency observational data and simulations HESPERIA investigated the chain of processes from particle acceleration in the corona, particle transport in the magnetically complex corona and interplanetary space, to the detection near 1 AU. The book also elaborates on the unique software that has been constructed for inverting observations of relativistic SEPs to physical parameters that can be compared with spac e-borne measurements at lower energies. Introductory and pedagogical material incl...

  13. Determining effective forecast horizons for multi-purpose reservoirs with short- and long-term operating objectives

    Luchner, Jakob; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Real-time control of multi-purpose reservoirs can benefit significantly from hydro-meteorological forecast products. Because of their reliability, the most used forecasts range on time scales from hours to few days and are suitable for short-term operation targets such as flood control. In recent years, hydro-meteorological forecasts have become more accurate and reliable on longer time scales, which are more relevant to long-term reservoir operation targets such as water supply. While the forecast quality of such products has been studied extensively, the forecast value, i.e. the operational effectiveness of using forecasts to support water management, has been only relatively explored. It is comparatively easy to identify the most effective forecasting information needed to design reservoir operation rules for flood control but it is not straightforward to identify which forecast variable and lead time is needed to define effective hedging rules for operational targets with slow dynamics such as water supply. The task is even more complex when multiple targets, with diverse slow and fast dynamics, are considered at the same time. In these cases, the relative importance of different pieces of information, e.g. magnitude and timing of peak flow rate and accumulated inflow on different time lags, may vary depending on the season or the hydrological conditions. In this work, we analyze the relationship between operational forecast value and streamflow forecast horizon for different multi-purpose reservoir trade-offs. We use the Information Selection and Assessment (ISA) framework to identify the most effective forecast variables and horizons for informing multi-objective reservoir operation over short- and long-term temporal scales. The ISA framework is an automatic iterative procedure to discriminate the information with the highest potential to improve multi-objective reservoir operating performance. Forecast variables and horizons are selected using a feature

  14. Solar Particle Radiation Storms Forecasting and Analysis within the Framework of the `HESPERIA' HORIZON 2020 Project

    Posner, A.; Malandraki, O.; Nunez, M.; Heber, B.; Labrenz, J.; Kühl, P.; Milas, N.; Tsiropoula, G.; Pavlos, E.

    2017-12-01

    Two prediction tools that have been developed in the framework of HESPERIA based upon the proven concepts UMASEP and REleASE. Near-relativistic (NR) electrons traveling faster than ions (30 MeV protons have 0.25c) are used to forecast the arrival of protons of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with real-time measurements of NR electrons. The faster electrons arrive at L1 30 to 90 minutes before the slower protons. REleASE (Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration, Posner, 2007) uses this effect to predict the proton flux by utilizing actual electron fluxes and their most recent increases. Through HESPERIA, a clone of REleASE was built in open source programming language. The same forecasting principle was adapted to real-time data from ACE/EPAM. It is shown that HESPERIA REleASE forecasting works with any NR electron flux measurements. >500 MeV solar protons are so energetic that they usually have effects on the ground, producing Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events. Within HESPERIA, a predictor of >500 SEP proton events near earth (geostationary orbit) has been developed. In order to predict these events, UMASEP (Núñez, 2011, 2015) has been used. UMASEP makes a lag-correlation of solar electromagnetic (EM) flux with the particle flux near earth. If the correlation is high, the model infers that there is a magnetic connection through which particles are arriving. If, additionally, the intensity of the flux of the associated solar event is also high, then UMASEP issues a SEP prediction. In the case of the prediction of >500 MeV SEP events, the implemented system, called HESPERIA UMASEP-500, correlates X-ray flux with differential proton fluxes by GOES, and with fluxes collected by neutron monitor stations around the world. When the correlation estimation and flare surpasses thresholds, a >500 MeV SEP forecast is issued. These findings suggest that a synthesis of the various approaches may improve over the status quo. Both forecasting tools are

  15. Acceleration, Transport, Forecasting and Impact of solar energetic particles in the framework of the 'HESPERIA' HORIZON 2020 project

    Malandraki, Olga; Klein, Karl-Ludwig; Vainio, Rami; Agueda, Neus; Nunez, Marlon; Heber, Bernd; Buetikofer, Rolf; Sarlanis, Christos; Crosby, Norma

    2017-04-01

    High-energy solar energetic particles (SEPs) emitted from the Sun are a major space weather hazard motivating the development of predictive capabilities. In this work, the current state of knowledge on the origin and forecasting of SEP events will be reviewed. Subsequently, we will present the EU HORIZON2020 HESPERIA (High Energy Solar Particle Events foRecastIng and Analysis) project, its structure, its main scientific objectives and forecasting operational tools, as well as the added value to SEP research both from the observational as well as the SEP modelling perspective. The project addresses through multi-frequency observations and simulations the chain of processes from particle acceleration in the corona, particle transport in the magnetically complex corona and interplanetary space to the detection near 1 AU. Furthermore, publicly available software to invert neutron monitor observations of relativistic SEPs to physical parameters that can be compared with space-borne measurements at lower energies is provided for the first time by HESPERIA. In order to achieve these goals, HESPERIA is exploiting already available large datasets stored in databases such as the neutron monitor database (NMDB) and SEPServer that were developed under EU FP7 projects from 2008 to 2013. Forecasting results of the two novel SEP operational forecasting tools published via the consortium server of 'HESPERIA' will be presented, as well as some scientific key results on the acceleration, transport and impact on Earth of high-energy particles. Acknowledgement: This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324.

  16. Spatial bias and uncertainty in numerical weather predictions for urban runoff forecasts with long time horizons

    Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca

    2017-01-01

    Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) can be used to forecast urban runoff with long lead times. However, NWP exhibit large spatial uncertainties and using forecasted precipitation directly above the catchment might therefore not be an ideal approach in an online setup. We use the Danish...... Meteorological Institute’s NWP ensemble and investigate a large spatial neighborhood around the catchment over a two-year period. When compared against in-sewer observations, runoff forecasts forced with precipitation from north-east of the catchment are most skillful. This highlights spatial biases...

  17. Initial evaluations of a Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean ocean forecast system in the context of the Deepwater Horizon disaster

    Zaron, Edward D.; Fitzpatrick, Patrick J.; Cross, Scott L.; Harding, John M.; Bub, Frank L.; Wiggert, Jerry D.; Ko, Dong S.; Lau, Yee; Woodard, Katharine; Mooers, Christopher N. K.

    2015-12-01

    In response to the Deepwater Horizon (DwH) oil spill event in 2010, the Naval Oceanographic Office deployed a nowcast-forecast system covering the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent Caribbean Sea that was designated Americas Seas, or AMSEAS, which is documented in this manuscript. The DwH disaster provided a challenge to the application of available ocean-forecast capabilities, and also generated a historically large observational dataset. AMSEAS was evaluated by four complementary efforts, each with somewhat different aims and approaches: a university research consortium within an Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) testbed; a petroleum industry consortium, the Gulf of Mexico 3-D Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Prediction Project (GOMEX-PPP); a British Petroleum (BP) funded project at the Northern Gulf Institute in response to the oil spill; and the Navy itself. Validation metrics are presented in these different projects for water temperature and salinity profiles, sea surface wind, sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and volume transport, for different forecast time scales. The validation found certain geographic and time biases/errors, and small but systematic improvements relative to earlier regional and global modeling efforts. On the basis of these positive AMSEAS validation studies, an oil spill transport simulation was conducted using archived AMSEAS nowcasts to examine transport into the estuaries east of the Mississippi River. This effort captured the influences of Hurricane Alex and a non-tropical cyclone off the Louisiana coast, both of which pushed oil into the western Mississippi Sound, illustrating the importance of the atmospheric influence on oil spills such as DwH.

  18. On unlimited frontiers

    Graham, J.

    1985-01-01

    The political system in the United States in unique because our forefathers planned it that way. Unfortunately, this uniqueness does not always serve the interest of those who advocate large nuclear-power facilities and fuel-cycle activities involving reprocessing and breeder reactors. The influence of various political systems on the viability of the nuclear-power option is discussed. As it faces the future, the U.S. nuclear community is divided over its most appropriate courses of action. The current administration is supportive in words if not in deeds, but it is ideologically opposed to advocating the conditions needed for a thriving nuclear industry based on large light water reactors. Will the U.S. enter the new century with ''unlimited frontiers'' in many new nuclear plant designs, or will some major shift in public opinion bring back political conditions that are more compatible with large LWR facilities. This is the $64,000 question confronting the nuclear industry, which must be prepared for any eventuality. The best chance for the U.S. to regain worldwide superiority in nuclear power-technology may lie in our ability to make rapid adjustments and to offer new and advanced machines that best fit utility needs and the political conditions of their own time

  19. Forecast combinations

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  20. Isolated Horizon, Killing Horizon and Event Horizon

    Date, G.

    2001-01-01

    We consider space-times which in addition to admitting an isolated horizon also admit Killing horizons with or without an event horizon. We show that an isolated horizon is a Killing horizon provided either (1) it admits a stationary neighbourhood or (2) it admits a neighbourhood with two independent, commuting Killing vectors. A Killing horizon is always an isolated horizon. For the case when an event horizon is definable, all conceivable relative locations of isolated horizon and event hori...

  1. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  2. Unlimited Relativistic Shock Surfing Acceleration

    Ucer, D.; Shapiro, V. D.

    2001-01-01

    Nonrelativistic shock surfing acceleration at quasiperpendicular shocks is usually considered to be a preacceleration mechanism for slow pickup ions to initiate diffusive shock acceleration. In shock surfing, the particle accelerates along the shock front under the action of the convective electric field of the plasma flow. However, the particle also gains kinetic energy normal to the shock and eventually escapes downstream. We consider the case when ions are accelerated to relativistic velocities. In this case, the ions are likely to be trapped for infinitely long times, because the energy of bounce oscillations tends to decrease during acceleration. This suggests the possibility of unlimited acceleration by shock surfing

  3. Wind Power accuracy and forecast. D3.1. Assumptions on accuracy of wind power to be considered at short and long term horizons

    Morthorst, P.E.; Coulondre, J.M.; Schroeder, S.T.; Meibom, P.

    2010-07-15

    The main objective of the Optimate project (An Open Platform to Test Integration in new MArkeT designs of massive intermittent Energy sources dispersed in several regional power markets) is to develop a new tool for testing these new market designs with large introduction of variable renewable energy sources. In Optimate a novel network/system/market modelling approach is being developed, generating an open simulation platform able to exhibit the comparative benefits of several market design options. This report constitutes delivery 3.1 on the assumptions on accuracy of wind power to be considered at short and long term horizons. The report handles the issues of state-of-the-art prediction, how predictions for wind power enter into the Optimate model and a simple and a more advanced methodology of how to generate trajectories of prediction errors to be used in Optimate. The main conclusion is that undoubtedly, the advanced approach is to be preferred to the simple one seen from a theoretical viewpoint. However, the advanced approach was developed to the Wilmar-model with the purpose of describing the integration of large-scale wind power in Europe. As the main purpose of the Optimate model is not to test the integration of wind power, but to test new market designs assuming a strong growth in wind power production, a more simplified approach for describing wind power forecasts should be sufficient. Thus a further development of the simple approach is suggested, eventually including correlations between geographical areas. In this report the general methodologies for generating trajectories for wind power forecasts are outlined. However, the methods are not yet implemented. In the next phase of Optimate, the clusters will be defined and the needed data collected. Following this phase actual results will be generated to be used in Optimate. (LN)

  4. 47 CFR 73.1710 - Unlimited time.

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Unlimited time. 73.1710 Section 73.1710 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) BROADCAST RADIO SERVICES RADIO BROADCAST SERVICES Rules Applicable to All Broadcast Stations § 73.1710 Unlimited time. Operation is permitted 24 hours a...

  5. MOTIVATIONAL LEXICON IN ANTHONY ROBBINS’ UNLIMITED POWER

    Nur Faidatun Naimah

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the language learning process, motivation, one of psychological factors, has a great role in endorsing students to be a successful learner. Based on the issues, the choice of words that can influence the students to do the best is practically required by the teachers. So that, teacher as a motivator has a power to influence the students to take action for achieving their excellent learning, using what Anthony Robbins suggest on his book; Unlimited Power. The writer formulated the aims of this study as follow; (1 to identify the motivational lexicons in Unlimited Power from the psychological perspective, and (2 to describe how motivational lexicons in Unlimited Power take apart in the pedagogical field. This research used qualitative research to find out the data. The data analysis technique that researcher used is content analysis since they were texts in Unlimited Power. Researcher found three motivational lexicons used by Anthony Robbins in his book Unlimited Power; think, challenge, and remember. Think used as a tool to lead his readers to come to their memory, re-identify some main points, and consider about the certain thing. Challenge used to pump readers’ emotion, gave a test, and invited them to take action. Remember used as a tool to bring back a piece of information he provided before and try to keep it in readers’ mind. Anthony’s motivational lexicons in Unlimited Power also can use in the pedagogical field. Teacher can use them in the teaching-learning process as it determines the effectiveness of rewards for what students do and apparently influential factor for learning process.

  6. Motivational Lexicon in Anthony Robbins’ Unlimited Power

    Nur Faidatun Naimah

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the language learning process, motivation, one of psychological factors, has a great role in endorsing students to be a successful learner. Based on the issues, the choice of words that can influence the students to do the best is practically required by the teachers. So that, teacher as a motivator has a power to influence the students to take action for achieving their excellent learning, using what Anthony Robbins suggest on his book; Unlimited Power. The writer formulated the aims of this study as follow; (1 to identify the motivational lexicons in Unlimited Power from the psychological perspective, and (2 to describe how motivational lexicons in Unlimited Power take apart in the pedagogical field. This research used qualitative research to find out the data. The data analysis technique that researcher used is content analysis since they were texts in Unlimited Power. Researcher found three motivational lexicons used by Anthony Robbins in his book Unlimited Power; think, challenge, and remember. Think used as a tool to lead his readers to come to their memory, re-identify some main points, and consider about the certain thing. Challenge used to pump readers’ emotion, gave a test, and invited them to take action. Remember used as a tool to bring back a piece of information he provided before and try to keep it in readers’ mind. Anthony’s motivational lexicons in Unlimited Power also can use in the pedagogical field. Teacher can use them in the teaching-learning process as it determines the effectiveness of rewards for what students do and apparently influential factor for learning process.

  7. Fishing Facts Unlimited. Enterprise: Man & Technology.

    Southern Illinois Univ., Carbondale. Dept. of Technical and Industrial Education.

    Fishing Facts Unlimited, a student conducted enterprise in Technical and Industrial Education at Southern Illinois University, Carbondale has been a very successful operation, both financially and in providing a community service. The service provided by the enterprise was the production and sales of a 48-page fishing guide to Southern Illinois.…

  8. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ ph...

  9. UNLIMITED I, On the corporate training revolution

    Leandro Adolfo Viltard

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The unlimited is a borderless territory where the whole world is inmerse. In this study, it is shown that the unlimited is present in education and, specifically, in the corporate educational arena. Helped by technology and automation, disruptive leaders are challenging the way things are done, the way we think and, in addtion, what we are. After performing a documentation analysis, conclusions are that big problems –as education- need cheap and scaled technology; leadership and organizations must evolve to less human intervention; education and training need a rethought; Eduaction-2-Employment (E2E is key for unemployment; and that new educational structures, delivery methods, pedagogical approaches and advanced Learning Management Systems (LMS are observed proposing huge transformations in the corporate educational arena. This is a qualitative investigation with a not experimental and transversal research design.

  10. Horizon measures

    Zhang, Eugene

    2016-11-28

    In this paper we seek to answer the following question: where do contour lines and visible contour lines (silhouette) tend to occur in a 3D surface. Our study leads to two novel shape descriptors, the horizon measure and the visible horizon measure, which we apply to the visualization of 3D shapes including archeological artifacts. In addition to introducing the shape descriptors, we also provide a closed-form formula for the horizon measure based on classical spherical geometry. To compute the visible horizon measure, which depends on the exact computation of the surface visibility function, we instead of provide an image-based approach which can process a model with high complexity within a few minutes.

  11. Unlimited ion acceleration by radiation pressure.

    Bulanov, S V; Echkina, E Yu; Esirkepov, T Zh; Inovenkov, I N; Kando, M; Pegoraro, F; Korn, G

    2010-04-02

    The energy of ions accelerated by an intense electromagnetic wave in the radiation pressure dominated regime can be greatly enhanced due to a transverse expansion of a thin target. The expansion decreases the number of accelerated ions in the irradiated region resulting in an increase in the ion energy and in the ion longitudinal velocity. In the relativistic limit, the ions become phase locked with respect to the electromagnetic wave resulting in unlimited ion energy gain.

  12. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  13. 41 CFR 101-39.106 - Unlimited exemptions.

    2010-07-01

    ...-INTERAGENCY FLEET MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 39.1-Establishment, Modification, and Discontinuance of Interagency Fleet Management Systems § 101-39.106 Unlimited exemptions. Unlimited exemptions from inclusion in the fleet... below. Unlimited exemptions do not preclude agencies from requesting fleet management services, if...

  14. Stringy horizons

    Giveon, Amit [Racah Institute of Physics, The Hebrew University,Jerusalem 91904 (Israel); Itzhaki, Nissan [Physics Department, Tel-Aviv University,Ramat-Aviv, 69978 (Israel); Kutasov, David [EFI and Department of Physics, University of Chicago,5640 S. Ellis Av., Chicago, IL 60637 (United States)

    2015-06-11

    We argue that classical (α{sup ′}) effects qualitatively modify the structure of Euclidean black hole horizons in string theory. While low energy modes experience the geometry familiar from general relativity, high energy ones see a rather different geometry, in which the Euclidean horizon can be penetrated by an amount that grows with the radial momentum of the probe. We discuss this in the exactly solvable SL(2,ℝ)/U(1) black hole, where it is a manifestation of the black hole/Sine-Liouville duality.

  15. HORIZON SENSING

    Larry G. Stolarczyk

    2003-03-18

    With the aid of a DOE grant (No. DE-FC26-01NT41050), Stolar Research Corporation (Stolar) developed the Horizon Sensor (HS) to distinguish between the different layers of a coal seam. Mounted on mining machine cutter drums, HS units can detect or sense the horizon between the coal seam and the roof and floor rock, providing the opportunity to accurately mine the section of the seam most desired. HS also enables accurate cutting of minimum height if that is the operator's objective. Often when cutting is done out-of-seam, the head-positioning function facilitates a fixed mining height to minimize dilution. With this technology, miners can still be at a remote location, yet cut only the clean coal, resulting in a much more efficient overall process. The objectives of this project were to demonstrate the feasibility of horizon sensing on mining machines and demonstrate that Horizon Sensing can allow coal to be cut cleaner and more efficiently. Stolar's primary goal was to develop the Horizon Sensor (HS) into an enabling technology for full or partial automation or ''agile mining''. This technical innovation (R&D 100 Award Winner) is quickly demonstrating improvements in productivity and miner safety at several prominent coal mines in the United States. In addition, the HS system can enable the cutting of cleaner coal. Stolar has driven the HS program on the philosophy that cutting cleaner coal means burning cleaner coal. The sensor, located inches from the cutting bits, is based upon the physics principles of a Resonant Microstrip Patch Antenna (RMPA). When it is in proximity of the rock-coal interface, the RMPA impedance varies depending on the thickness of uncut coal. The impedance is measured by the computer-controlled electronics and then sent by radio waves to the mining machine. The worker at the machine can read the data via a Graphical User Interface, displaying a color-coded image of the coal being cut, and direct the machine

  16. Unlimited productivity: your operation can achieve it

    Bovino, V R

    1986-10-01

    Most mines substantially underestimate their real potential. The market for coal is global and people consider the problems are caused by uncontrolled production of foreign coal, however part of the problem is productivity, that is the ability to produce tons of coal in a cost-effective way, rather than production. Any operation can deliver unlimited productivity by developing the resource within their employees. This paper discusses the areas where the industry has gone wrong, including bureaucracy, blind faith in price rises, wages, adversaries; tradition, narrow job characteristics, conformance over performance for employees, management, money, self-limitations and benefit plans. It also describes three basic ways of improving productivity. These are positive management practices, employee participation and shared rewards.

  17. Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation

    Chun, Albert Lee

    the best overall for short horizon forecasts of short to medium term yields and inflation. Econometric models with shrinkage perform the best over longer horizons and maturities. Aggregating over a larger set of analysts improves inflation surveys while generally degrading interest rates surveys. We...

  18. 41 CFR 109-39.106 - Unlimited exemptions.

    2010-07-01

    ..., AND MOTOR VEHICLES 39-INTERAGENCY FLEET MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 39.1-Establishment, Modification, and Discontinuance of Interagency Fleet Management Systems § 109-39.106 Unlimited exemptions. The Director, Office of... determination that an unlimited exemption from inclusion of a motor vehicle in a fleet management system is...

  19. 48 CFR 27.404-1 - Unlimited rights data.

    2010-10-01

    ... data constitute minor modifications to data that are limited rights data or restricted computer... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Unlimited rights data. 27... CONTRACTING REQUIREMENTS PATENTS, DATA, AND COPYRIGHTS Rights in Data and Copyrights 27.404-1 Unlimited rights...

  20. 41 CFR 109-38.204-1 - Unlimited exemptions.

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Unlimited exemptions... Regulations System (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY PROPERTY MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS AVIATION, TRANSPORTATION... § 109-38.204-1 Unlimited exemptions. (a)-(f) [Reserved] (g) The Director, Office of Administrative...

  1. Unlimited Horizons: Design and Development of the U-2. [NASA Aeronautics Book Series

    Merlin, Peter W.

    2015-01-01

    This book describes the creation, history, design, and research value of the U-2 program. It also describes the involvement of NACA, as a cover story, and the later use by NASA of these aircraft as environmental research platforms.

  2. Topology of Event Horizon

    Siino, Masaru

    1997-01-01

    The topologies of event horizons are investigated. Considering the existence of the endpoint of the event horizon, it cannot be differentiable. Then there are the new possibilities of the topology of the event horizon though they are excluded in smooth event horizons. The relation between the topology of the event horizon and the endpoint of it is revealed. A torus event horizon is caused by two-dimensional endpoints. One-dimensional endpoints provide the coalescence of spherical event horizo...

  3. Interval Forecast for Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model ...

    In this paper, we propose a simple method for constructing interval forecast for smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model. This interval forecast is based on bootstrapping the residual error of the estimated STAR model for each forecast horizon and computing various Akaike information criterion (AIC) function. This new ...

  4. Deep Random based Key Exchange protocol resisting unlimited MITM

    de Valroger, Thibault

    2018-01-01

    We present a protocol enabling two legitimate partners sharing an initial secret to mutually authenticate and to exchange an encryption session key. The opponent is an active Man In The Middle (MITM) with unlimited computation and storage capacities. The resistance to unlimited MITM is obtained through the combined use of Deep Random secrecy, formerly introduced and proved as unconditionally secure against passive opponent for key exchange, and universal hashing techniques. We prove the resis...

  5. Forecasting Costa Rican Quarterly Growth with Mixed-frequency Models

    Adolfo Rodríguez Vargas

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We assess the utility of mixed-frequency models to forecast the quarterly growth rate of Costa Rican real GDP: we estimate bridge and MiDaS models with several lag lengths using information of the IMAE and compute forecasts (horizons of 0-4 quarters which are compared between themselves, with those of ARIMA models and with those resulting from forecast combinations. Combining the most accurate forecasts is most useful when forecasting in real time, whereas MiDaS forecasts are the best-performing overall: as the forecasting horizon increases, their precisionis affected relatively little; their success rates in predicting the direction of changes in the growth rate are stable, and several forecastsremain unbiased. In particular, forecasts computed from simple MiDaS with 9 and 12 lags are unbiased at all horizons and information sets assessed, and show the highest number of significant differences in forecasting ability in comparison with all other models.

  6. Online Short-term Solar Power Forecasting

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2011-01-01

    This poster presents two approaches to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The methods are suited for online forecasting in many applications and here they are used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons up to 32 hours.......This poster presents two approaches to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The methods are suited for online forecasting in many applications and here they are used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons up to 32 hours....

  7. Unlimited - nuclear liabilities in the Federal Republic of Germany

    Arendt, W.

    1986-01-01

    Unlimited nuclear liabilities as in force in the Federal Republic of Germany go beyond the international rules of the Paris liability agreement. The unlimited liability mainly roots in the positive operational experiences and safety balance of the 20 nuclear power plants which meanwhile are in operation in the Federal Republic of Germany. Nuclear liabilities must not be confounded with scepticism as to the utilization of nuclear power. Extraordinary requirements of that kind should rather be reflecting responsibility and clear ideas and notions of the advantages and risks of nuclear energy. (HSCH) [de

  8. Mechanics of apparent horizons

    Collins, W.

    1992-01-01

    An equation for the variation in the surface area of an apparent horizon is derived which has the same form as the thermodynamic relation TdS=dQ. For a stationary vacuum black hole, the expression corresponding to a temperature equals the temperature of the event horizon. Also, if the black hole is perturbed infinitesimally by weak matter and gravitational fields, the area variation of the apparent horizon asymptotically approaches the Hartle-Hawking result for the event horizon. These results support the idea that a local version of black-hole thermodynamics in nonstationary systems can be constructed for apparent horizons

  9. Examples of plasma horizons

    Hanni, R.S.

    1975-01-01

    The concept of the plasma horizon, defined as the boundary of the region in which an infinitely thin plasma can be supported against Coulomb attraction by a magnetic field, shows that the argument of selective accretion does not rule out the existence of charged black holes embedded in a conducting plasma. A detailed account of the covariant definition of plasma horizon is given and some examples of plasma horizons are presented. 7 references

  10. COMPARATIVE STUDY: LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY VERSUS UNLIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY

    Silvia Cristea

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Our goal is to differentiate between the legal regime of the limited partnership and that of the unlimited company, by drawing a comparison between civil and special settlement in terms of the following criteria: definition, contributions, capital divisions, the Articles of Association, registration, management control, withdrawal/exclusion of a partner, dissolution/ liquidation. The opinions expressed in the chapter devoted to conclusions are relevant to Romanian and French Law as well.

  11. A New Approach to Forecasting Exchange Rates

    Kenneth W Clements; Yihui Lan

    2006-01-01

    Building on purchasing power parity theory, this paper proposes a new approach to forecasting exchange rates using the Big Mac data from The Economist magazine. Our approach is attractive in three aspects. Firstly, it uses easily-available Big Mac prices as input. These prices avoid several serious problems associated with broad price indexes, such as the CPI, that are used in conventional PPP studies. Secondly, this approach provides real-time exchange-rate forecasts at any forecast horizon....

  12. VMware horizon view essentials

    von Oven, Peter

    2014-01-01

    If you are a desktop administrator or an end user of a computing project team looking to speed up to the latest VMware Horizon View solution, then this book is perfect for you. It is your ideal companion to deploy a solution to centrally manage and virtualize your desktop estate using Horizon View 6.0.

  13. Revisiting event horizon finders

    Cohen, Michael I; Pfeiffer, Harald P; Scheel, Mark A

    2009-01-01

    Event horizons are the defining physical features of black hole spacetimes, and are of considerable interest in studying black hole dynamics. Here, we reconsider three techniques to find event horizons in numerical spacetimes: integrating geodesics, integrating a surface, and integrating a level-set of surfaces over a volume. We implement the first two techniques and find that straightforward integration of geodesics backward in time is most robust. We find that the exponential rate of approach of a null surface towards the event horizon of a spinning black hole equals the surface gravity of the black hole. In head-on mergers we are able to track quasi-normal ringing of the merged black hole through seven oscillations, covering a dynamic range of about 10 5 . Both at late times (when the final black hole has settled down) and at early times (before the merger), the apparent horizon is found to be an excellent approximation of the event horizon. In the head-on binary black hole merger, only some of the future null generators of the horizon are found to start from past null infinity; the others approach the event horizons of the individual black holes at times far before merger.

  14. Forecast Combinations

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  15. Zero-sum bias: perceived competition despite unlimited resources

    Daniel V Meegan

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Zero-sum bias describes intuitively judging a situation to be zero-sum (i.e., resources gained by one party are matched by corresponding losses to another party when it is actually non-zero-sum. The experimental participants were students at a university where students’ grades are determined by how the quality of their work compares to a predetermined standard of quality rather than to the quality of the work produced by other students. This creates a non-zero-sum situation in which high grades are an unlimited resource. In three experiments, participants were shown the grade distribution after a majority of the students in a course had completed an assigned presentation, and asked to predict the grade of the next presenter. When many high grades had already been given, there was a corresponding increase in low grade predictions. This suggests a zero-sum bias, in which people perceive a competition for a limited resource despite unlimited resource availability. Interestingly, when many low grades had already been given, there was not a corresponding increase in high grade predictions. This suggests that a zero-sum heuristic is only applied in response to the allocation of desirable resources. A plausible explanation for the findings is that a zero-sum heuristic evolved as a cognitive adaptation to enable successful intra-group competition for limited resources. Implications for understanding inter-group interaction are also discussed.

  16. Zero-sum bias: perceived competition despite unlimited resources.

    Meegan, Daniel V

    2010-01-01

    Zero-sum bias describes intuitively judging a situation to be zero-sum (i.e., resources gained by one party are matched by corresponding losses to another party) when it is actually non-zero-sum. The experimental participants were students at a university where students' grades are determined by how the quality of their work compares to a predetermined standard of quality rather than to the quality of the work produced by other students. This creates a non-zero-sum situation in which high grades are an unlimited resource. In three experiments, participants were shown the grade distribution after a majority of the students in a course had completed an assigned presentation, and asked to predict the grade of the next presenter. When many high grades had already been given, there was a corresponding increase in low grade predictions. This suggests a zero-sum bias, in which people perceive a competition for a limited resource despite unlimited resource availability. Interestingly, when many low grades had already been given, there was not a corresponding increase in high grade predictions. This suggests that a zero-sum heuristic is only applied in response to the allocation of desirable resources. A plausible explanation for the findings is that a zero-sum heuristic evolved as a cognitive adaptation to enable successful intra-group competition for limited resources. Implications for understanding inter-group interaction are also discussed.

  17. Why do couples discontinue unlimited free IVF treatments?

    Lande, Yechezkel; Seidman, Daniel S; Maman, Ettie; Baum, Micha; Hourvitz, Ariel

    2015-03-01

    Worldwide, IVF is often discontinued before a live birth is achieved due to high costs. Even when partial financial coverage is provided, often medical providers advise treatment discontinuation. In Israel, unlimited IVF is offered free of charge for a couples' first two children. Our objective was to assess the reasons couples discontinue IVF treatments before achieving two children in a completely unlimited cost-free environment. This cohort study included all primary infertile women, reason they ceased treatments. Of the 134 couples included, only 46 ceased IVF treatments without achieving two children, after performing an average of 6.2 IVF cycles to achieve their first birth. The reasons given were: lost hope of success (13), psychological burden (18), divorce (6), medical staff recommendation (5), bureaucratic difficulties (3) and general medical condition (1). The main reasons for "drop out" in our cost-free environment were as follows: psychological burden and lost hope of success. Due to high availability of treatments, medical staff recommendation was a less significant factor in our study.

  18. Parity horizons in shape dynamics

    Herczeg, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    I introduce the notion of a parity horizon, and show that many simple solutions of shape dynamics possess them. I show that the event horizons of the known asymptotically flat black hole solutions of shape dynamics are parity horizons and that this notion of parity implies that these horizons possess a notion of CPT invariance that can in some cases be extended to the solution as a whole. I present three new solutions of shape dynamics with parity horizons and find that not only do event horizons become parity horizons in shape dynamics, but observer-dependent horizons and Cauchy horizons do as well. The fact that Cauchy horizons become (singular) parity horizons suggests a general chronology protection mechanism in shape dynamics that prevents the formation of closed timelike curves. (paper)

  19. Deepwater Horizon - Baseline Dataset

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In 2010, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill occurred in the Gulf of Mexico and the Natural Resources Damage Assessment (NRDA) was initiated to determine the extent of...

  20. Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints

    Van Dijk, Dick; Koopman, Siem Jan; Wel, Michel van der

    2014-01-01

    We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time-varying mean or ‘shifting endpoint’. The shifting endpoints are captured using either (i) time series methods (exponential smoothing) or (ii......) long-range survey forecasts of either interest rates or inflation and output growth, or (iii) exponentially smoothed realizations of these macro variables. Allowing for shifting endpoints in yield curve factors provides substantial and significant gains in out-of-sample predictive accuracy, relative...... to stationary and random walk benchmarks. Forecast improvements are largest for long-maturity interest rates and for long-horizon forecasts....

  1. Unlimited multistability and Boolean logic in microbial signalling

    Kothamachu, Varun B; Feliu, Elisenda; Cardelli, Luca

    2015-01-01

    The ability to map environmental signals onto distinct internal physiological states or programmes is critical for single-celled microbes. A crucial systems dynamics feature underpinning such ability is multistability. While unlimited multistability is known to arise from multi-site phosphorylation...... seen in the signalling networks of eukaryotic cells, a similarly universal mechanism has not been identified in microbial signalling systems. These systems are generally known as two-component systems comprising histidine kinase (HK) receptors and response regulator proteins engaging in phosphotransfer...... further prove that sharing of downstream components allows a system with n multi-domain hybrid HKs to attain 3n steady states. We find that such systems, when sensing distinct signals, can readily implement Boolean logic functions on these signals. Using two experimentally studied examples of two...

  2. Forecasting Skill

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  3. VMware Horizon Workspace essentials

    von Oven, Peter; Lindberg, Joel

    2014-01-01

    This book uses a step-by-step approach to teach you how to design, deploy, and manage a Horizon Workspace based on real world experience. Written in an easy-to-follow style, this book explains the terminology in a clear and concise manner. Each feature is explained starting at a high level and then drilling down into the technical detail, using diagrams and screenshots.This book is perfect for IT administrators who want to deploy a solution to centrally manage access to corporate applications, data, and virtual desktops using Horizon Workspace. You need to have some experience in delivering BY

  4. Mastering VMware Horizon 6

    Oven, Peter von

    2015-01-01

    If you are working as a desktop admin, part of a EUC team, an architect, or a consultant on a desktop virtualization project and you are looking to use VMware's Horizon solution, this book is for you. This book will demonstrate the new capabilities of Horizon 6. You should have experience in desktop management using Windows and Microsoft Office, and be familiar with Active Directory, SQL, Windows Remote Desktop Session Hosting, and VMware vSphere infrastructure (ESXi and vCenter Server) technology.

  5. Bootstrap, universality and horizons

    Chang, Chi-Ming [Center for Theoretical Physics and Department of Physics,University of California, Berkeley, CA 94704 (United States); Lin, Ying-Hsuan [Jefferson Physical Laboratory, Harvard University,Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2016-10-13

    We present a closed form expression for the semiclassical OPE coefficients that are universal for all 2D CFTs with a “weak” light spectrum, by taking the semiclassical limit of the fusion kernel. We match this with a properly regularized and normalized bulk action evaluated on a geometry with three conical defects, analytically continued in the deficit angles beyond the range for which a metric with positive signature exists. The analytically continued geometry has a codimension-one coordinate singularity surrounding the heaviest conical defect. This singularity becomes a horizon after Wick rotating to Lorentzian signature, suggesting a connection between universality and the existence of a horizon.

  6. The spatial relation between the event horizon and trapping horizon

    Nielsen, Alex B

    2010-01-01

    The relation between event horizons and trapping horizons is investigated in a number of different situations with emphasis on their role in thermodynamics. A notion of constant change is introduced that in certain situations allows the location of the event horizon to be found locally. When the black hole is accreting matter the difference in area between the two different horizons can be many orders of magnitude larger than the Planck area. When the black hole is evaporating, the difference is small on the Planck scale. A model is introduced that shows how trapping horizons can be expected to appear outside the event horizon before the black hole starts to evaporate. Finally, a modified definition is introduced to invariantly define the location of the trapping horizon under a conformal transformation. In this case the trapping horizon is not always a marginally outer trapped surface.

  7. Optimal investment horizons

    Simonsen, I.; Jensen, M. H.; Johansen, A.

    2002-06-01

    In stochastic finance, one traditionally considers the return as a competitive measure of an asset, i.e., the profit generated by that asset after some fixed time span Δt, say one week or one year. This measures how well (or how bad) the asset performs over that given period of time. It has been established that the distribution of returns exhibits ``fat tails'' indicating that large returns occur more frequently than what is expected from standard Gaussian stochastic processes [1-3]. Instead of estimating this ``fat tail'' distribution of returns, we propose here an alternative approach, which is outlined by addressing the following question: What is the smallest time interval needed for an asset to cross a fixed return level of say 10%? For a particular asset, we refer to this time as the investment horizon and the corresponding distribution as the investment horizon distribution. This latter distribution complements that of returns and provides new and possibly crucial information for portfolio design and risk-management, as well as for pricing of more exotic options. By considering historical financial data, exemplified by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we obtain a novel set of probability distributions for the investment horizons which can be used to estimate the optimal investment horizon for a stock or a future contract.

  8. Instability of enclosed horizons

    Kay, Bernard S.

    2015-03-01

    We point out that there are solutions to the scalar wave equation on dimensional Minkowski space with finite energy tails which, if they reflect off a uniformly accelerated mirror due to (say) Dirichlet boundary conditions on it, develop an infinite stress-energy tensor on the mirror's Rindler horizon. We also show that, in the presence of an image mirror in the opposite Rindler wedge, suitable compactly supported arbitrarily small initial data on a suitable initial surface will develop an arbitrarily large stress-energy scalar near where the two horizons cross. Also, while there is a regular Hartle-Hawking-Israel-like state for the quantum theory between these two mirrors, there are coherent states built on it for which there are similar singularities in the expectation value of the renormalized stress-energy tensor. We conjecture that in other situations with analogous enclosed horizons such as a (maximally extended) Schwarzschild black hole in equilibrium in a (stationary spherical) box or the (maximally extended) Schwarzschild-AdS spacetime, there will be similar stress-energy singularities and almost-singularities—leading to instability of the horizons when gravity is switched on and matter and gravity perturbations are allowed for. All this suggests it is incorrect to picture a black hole in equilibrium in a box or a Schwarzschild-AdS black hole as extending beyond the past and future horizons of a single Schwarzschild (/Schwarzschild-AdS) wedge. It would thus provide new evidence for 't Hooft's brick wall model while seeming to invalidate the picture in Maldacena's ` Eternal black holes in AdS'. It would thereby also support the validity of the author's matter-gravity entanglement hypothesis and of the paper ` Brick walls and AdS/CFT' by the author and Ortíz.

  9. Forecasting Value-at-Risk Under Temporal and Portfolio Aggregation

    H.J.W.G. Kole (Erik); T.D. Markwat (Thijs); A. Opschoor (Anne); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractWe examine the impact of temporal and portfolio aggregation on the quality of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts over a horizon of ten trading days for a well-diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and alternative investments. The VaR forecasts are constructed based on daily, weekly or

  10. Spacetimes containing slowly evolving horizons

    Kavanagh, William; Booth, Ivan

    2006-01-01

    Slowly evolving horizons are trapping horizons that are ''almost'' isolated horizons. This paper reviews their definition and discusses several spacetimes containing such structures. These include certain Vaidya and Tolman-Bondi solutions as well as (perturbatively) tidally distorted black holes. Taking into account the mass scales and orders of magnitude that arise in these calculations, we conjecture that slowly evolving horizons are the norm rather than the exception in astrophysical processes that involve stellar-scale black holes

  11. Load forecasting

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  12. Real-time data processing and inflow forecasting

    Olason, T.; Lafreniere, M.

    1998-01-01

    One of the key inputs into the short-term scheduling of hydroelectric generation is inflow forecasting which is needed for natural or unregulated inflows into various lakes, reservoirs and river sections. The forecast time step and time horizon are determined by the time step and the scheduling horizon. Acres International Ltd. has developed the Vista Decision Support System (DSS) in which the time step is one hour and the scheduling can be done up to two weeks into the future. This paper presents the basis of the operational flow-forecasting module of the Vista DSS software and its application to flow forecasting for 16 basins within Nova Scotia Power's hydroelectric system. Among the tasks performed by the software are collection and treatment of data (in real time) regarding meteorological forecasts, reviews and monitoring of hydro-meteorological data, updating of the state variables in the module, and the review and adjustment of sub-watershed forecasts

  13. Forecasting electricity market pricing using artificial neural networks

    Pao, Hsiao-Tien

    2007-01-01

    Electricity price forecasting is extremely important for all market players, in particular for generating companies: in the short term, they must set up bids for the spot market; in the medium term, they have to define contract policies; and in the long term, they must define their expansion plans. For forecasting long-term electricity market pricing, in order to avoid excessive round-off and prediction errors, this paper proposes a new artificial neural network (ANN) with single output node structure by using direct forecasting approach. The potentials of ANNs are investigated by employing a rolling cross validation scheme. Out of sample performance evaluated with three criteria across five forecasting horizons shows that the proposed ANNs are a more robust multi-step ahead forecasting method than autoregressive error models. Moreover, ANN predictions are quite accurate even when the length of the forecast horizon is relatively short or long

  14. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States' pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012-2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (-€9,367 million), France (-€5,589 million), and, far behind them

  15. 75 FR 41762 - Safety Zone; Annual Kennewick, WA, Columbia Unlimited Hydroplane Races, Kennewick, WA

    2010-07-19

    ...-AA00 Safety Zone; Annual Kennewick, WA, Columbia Unlimited Hydroplane Races, Kennewick, WA AGENCY..., Columbia Unlimited Hydroplane Races'' also known as the Tri-City Water Follies Hydroplane Races. The safety... power and responsibilities between the Federal Government and Indian tribes. Energy Effects We have...

  16. Locating the Gribov horizon

    Gao, Fei; Qin, Si-Xue; Roberts, Craig D.; Rodríguez-Quintero, Jose

    2018-02-01

    We explore whether a tree-level expression for the gluon two-point function, supposed to express effects of an horizon term introduced to eliminate the Gribov ambiguity, is consistent with the propagator obtained in simulations of lattice-regularised quantum chromodynamics (QCD). In doing so, we insist that the gluon two-point function obey constraints that ensure a minimal level of consistency with parton-like behaviour at ultraviolet momenta. In consequence, we are led to a position which supports a conjecture that the gluon mass and horizon scale are equivalent emergent massscales, each with a value of roughly 0.5 GeV; and wherefrom it appears plausible that the dynamical generation of a running gluon mass may alone be sufficient to remove the Gribov ambiguity.

  17. Horizon Scanning for Pharmaceuticals

    Lepage-Nefkens, Isabelle; Douw, Karla; Mantjes, GertJan

    for a joint horizon scanning system (HSS).  We propose to create a central “horizon scanning unit” to perform the joint HS activities (a newly established unit, an existing HS unit, or a third party commissioned and financed by the collaborating countries). The unit will be responsible for the identification...... and filtration of new and emerging pharmaceutical products. It will maintain and update the HS database, organise company pipeline meetings, and disseminate the HSS’s outputs.  The HS unit works closely together with the designated national HS experts in each collaborating country. The national HS experts...... will collect country-specific information, liaise between the central HS unit and country-specific clinical and other experts, coordinate the national prioritization process (to select products for early assessment), and communicate the output of the HSS to national decision makers.  The outputs of the joint...

  18. Locating the Gribov horizon

    Gao, Fei; Qin, Si-Xue; Roberts, Craig D.; Rodríguez-Quintero, Jose

    2018-02-01

    We explore whether a tree-level expression for the gluon two-point function, supposed to express effects of an horizon term introduced to eliminate the Gribov ambiguity, is consistent with the propagator obtained in simulations of lattice-regularized quantum chromodynamics (QCD). In doing so, we insist that the gluon two-point function obey constraints that ensure a minimal level of consistency with parton-like behavior on the ultraviolet domain. In consequence, we are led to a position which supports a conjecture that the gluon mass and horizon scale are equivalent emergent mass-scales, each with a value of roughly 0.5 GeV; and wherefrom it appears plausible that the dynamical generation of a running gluon mass may alone be sufficient to remove the Gribov ambiguity.

  19. Horizon 2020 in sight

    Joannah Caborn Wengler

    2012-01-01

    Every tenth member of the CERN personnel participates in an EU-funded project – a strong indication of CERN’s successful relations with the European Commission (EC), coordinated by the CERN EU projects office. The EC director in charge of preparing “Horizon 2020”, the new EU funding programme for research and innovation (2014-2020), will be giving a presentation at CERN on 8 May. He will reveal more about what the new programme has in store.   “It’s a very interesting time in the development of Horizon 2020, which is focusing the attention of all research communities in Europe,” explains Svetlomir Stavrev, head of the EU projects office. “After a long public consultation and drafting process, the Horizon 2020 proposal documents are now being reviewed by the European Parliament and Council.” CERN already participated in the consultation, making good use of the opportunity to contribute to the shaping of wh...

  20. Leveraging stochastic differential equations for probabilistic forecasting of wind power using a dynamic power curve

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Morales González, Juan Miguel; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg

    2017-01-01

    Short-term (hours to days) probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation provide useful information about the associated uncertainty of these forecasts. Standard probabilistic forecasts are usually issued on a per-horizon-basis, meaning that they lack information about the development of the u...

  1. From Sky-Limited to Space-Unlimited

    Editor

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Dear friends, A recent email from a friend of mine had a quote "If some one says sky is his limit, I will only feel pity for his poor imagination". This was recollected when we were on a discussion about the physical factors which could be manipulated in several of our chemically synthesized concoctions to yield scaffolds for cell culture. Though the manipulation of physical factors such as elasticity have been proven to have a definite control over the stem cell lineage of differentiation in the in vitro culture conditions, various combinations of such physical factors are yet to be tried which might come over with interesting results. However the entity of gravitational force remain something beyond our control and to be explored in depth. We guess the cell culture and stem cell lineage differentiation could be different especially at different gravities as well as at zero gravity. Enormous coordination has to be done to accomplish such experiments because the transition of cells from earth at 37 Deg celsius into space of no gravity in a very short time, when lifted in a space within the chambers in-built within a satellite, further exposure of them to usual expansion atmosphere sans gravity and then the final return back to earth of the expanded cells will have to be automized. This needs the help of space engineers and electro mechanical automations systems which operate through wireless controls still without in any way jeoparding the cells viability and sterility at any point. Such accomplishment may not be impossible, if have will. Now thinking of the statement quoted in the beginning, its true in a sense that limiting ourselves to an area with gravity has become a real limitation and going out into outer space of different grades of gravity is soon going to become an necessity at least for the stem cell researchers! Let not only the space but also the ideas pour in unlimited to explore what we are yet to!! Yours sincerely,The Editorial

  2. The use of ambient humidity conditions to improve influenza forecast.

    Jeffrey Shaman

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Laboratory and epidemiological evidence indicate that ambient humidity modulates the survival and transmission of influenza. Here we explore whether the inclusion of humidity forcing in mathematical models describing influenza transmission improves the accuracy of forecasts generated with those models. We generate retrospective forecasts for 95 cities over 10 seasons in the United States and assess both forecast accuracy and error. Overall, we find that humidity forcing improves forecast performance (at 1-4 lead weeks, 3.8% more peak week and 4.4% more peak intensity forecasts are accurate than with no forcing and that forecasts generated using daily climatological humidity forcing generally outperform forecasts that utilize daily observed humidity forcing (4.4% and 2.6% respectively. These findings hold for predictions of outbreak peak intensity, peak timing, and incidence over 2- and 4-week horizons. The results indicate that use of climatological humidity forcing is warranted for current operational influenza forecast.

  3. The use of ambient humidity conditions to improve influenza forecast.

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Kandula, Sasikiran; Yang, Wan; Karspeck, Alicia

    2017-11-01

    Laboratory and epidemiological evidence indicate that ambient humidity modulates the survival and transmission of influenza. Here we explore whether the inclusion of humidity forcing in mathematical models describing influenza transmission improves the accuracy of forecasts generated with those models. We generate retrospective forecasts for 95 cities over 10 seasons in the United States and assess both forecast accuracy and error. Overall, we find that humidity forcing improves forecast performance (at 1-4 lead weeks, 3.8% more peak week and 4.4% more peak intensity forecasts are accurate than with no forcing) and that forecasts generated using daily climatological humidity forcing generally outperform forecasts that utilize daily observed humidity forcing (4.4% and 2.6% respectively). These findings hold for predictions of outbreak peak intensity, peak timing, and incidence over 2- and 4-week horizons. The results indicate that use of climatological humidity forcing is warranted for current operational influenza forecast.

  4. Formulation for less master production schedule instability under rolling horizon

    Herrera , Carlos; Thomas , André

    2009-01-01

    International audience; In Manufacturing Planning and Control Systems, the Master Production Schedule (MPS) makes a link between tactical and operational levels, taking into account information provided by end items, demand forecast as well as Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) suggestions. Therefore, MPS plays an important role to maintain an adequate customers service level and an efficient production system. In a rolling planning horizon, MPS is periodically computed over whole operation...

  5. Submesoscale dispersion in the vicinity of the Deepwater Horizon spill

    Poje, Andrew C.; Özgökmen, Tamay M.; Lipphardt, Bruce L.; Haus, Brian K.; Ryan, Edward H.; Haza, Angelique C.; Jacobs, Gregg A.; Reniers, A. J. H. M.; Olascoaga, Maria Josefina; Novelli, Guillaume; Griffa, Annalisa; Beron-Vera, Francisco J.; Chen, Shuyi S.; Coelho, Emanuel; Hogan, Patrick J.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable forecasts for the dispersion of oceanic contamination are important for coastal ecosystems, society and the economy as evidenced by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 and the Fukushima nuclear plant incident in the Pacific Ocean in 2011. Accurate prediction of pollutant pathways and concentrations at the ocean surface requires understanding ocean dynamics over a broad range of spatial scales. Fundamental questions concerning the structure of the velocity fi...

  6. Spacetimes foliated by Killing horizons

    Pawlowski, Tomasz; Lewandowski, Jerzy; Jezierski, Jacek

    2004-01-01

    It seems to be expected that a horizon of a quasi-local type, such as a Killing or an isolated horizon, by analogy with a globally defined event horizon, should be unique in some open neighbourhood in the spacetime, provided the vacuum Einstein or the Einstein-Maxwell equations are satisfied. The aim of our paper is to verify whether that intuition is correct. If one can extend a so-called Kundt metric, in such a way that its null, shear-free surfaces have spherical spacetime sections, the resulting spacetime is foliated by so-called non-expanding horizons. The obstacle is Kundt's constraint induced at the surfaces by the Einstein or the Einstein-Maxwell equations, and the requirement that a solution be globally defined on the sphere. We derived a transformation (reflection) that creates a solution to Kundt's constraint out of data defining an extremal isolated horizon. Using that transformation, we derived a class of exact solutions to the Einstein or Einstein-Maxwell equations of very special properties. Each spacetime we construct is foliated by a family of the Killing horizons. Moreover, it admits another, transversal Killing horizon. The intrinsic and extrinsic geometries of the transversal Killing horizon coincide with the one defined on the event horizon of the extremal Kerr-Newman solution. However, the Killing horizon in our example admits yet another Killing vector tangent to and null at it. The geometries of the leaves are given by the reflection

  7. VMware Horizon Mirage essentials

    Von Oven, Peter

    2013-01-01

    This book provides a practical, step-by-step approach to teach you how to build a successful infrastructure.This book is perfect for desktop administrators who want to deploy a solution to centrally manage their endpoint images across their entire estate using VMware Horizon Mirage. You need to have some experience in desktop image management using Microsoft Windows operating systems and Windows applications, as well as be familiar with Active Directory, SQL, IIS, and general server infrastructure relating to supporting end users.

  8. Horizons of cosmology

    Silk, Joseph

    2011-01-01

    Horizons of Cosmology: Exploring Worlds Seen and Unseen is the fourth title published in the Templeton Science and Religion Series, in which scientists from a wide range of fields distill their experience and knowledge into brief tours of their respective specialties. In this volume, highly esteemed astrophysicist Joseph Silk explores the vast mysteries and speculations of the field of cosmology in a way that balances an accessible style for the general reader and enough technical detail for advanced students and professionals. Indeed, while the p

  9. Expanding Your Horizon 2015

    Kaltenhauser, Kristin

    2015-01-01

    Expanding your horizons is a bi-annual “Science Day” for girls aged 11 to 14, held at the University of Geneva on 14 November. The girls had the opportunity to take part in hands-on workshops held by local professional women in the field of science, mathematics, engineering and technology. For the fourth time, CERN was part of this event, offering three workshops as well as a booth at the Discovery Fair, including Higgnite, an interactive visualization of the Higgs Field.

  10. Stringy horizons II

    Giveon, Amit [Racah Institute of Physics, The Hebrew University,Jerusalem 91904 (Israel); Itzhaki, Nissan [Physics Department, Tel-Aviv University,Ramat-Aviv, 69978 (Israel); Kutasov, David [EFI and Department of Physics, University of Chicago,5640 S. Ellis Av., Chicago, IL 60637 (United States)

    2016-10-28

    We show that the spectrum of normalizable states on a Euclidean SL(2, R)/U(1) black hole exhibits a duality between oscillator states and wound strings. This duality generalizes the identification between a normalizable mode of dilaton gravity on the cigar and a mode of the tachyon with winding number one around the Euclidean time circle, which plays an important role in the FZZ correspondence. It implies that normalizable states on a large Euclidean black hole have support at widely separated scales. In particular, localized states that are extended over the cap of the cigar (the Euclidian analog of the black hole atmosphere) have a component that is localized near the tip of the cigar (the analog of the stretched horizon). As a consequence of this duality, the states exhibit a transition as a function of radial excitation level. From the perspective of a low energy probe, low lying states are naturally thought of as oscillator states in the black hole atmosphere, while at large excitation level they are naturally described as wound strings. As the excitation level increases, the size of the states first decreases and then increases. This behavior is expected to be a general feature of black hole horizons in string theory.

  11. Exposure Forecaster

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  12. Strategic Forecasting

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  13. Using Quantile Regression to Extend an Existing Wind Power Forecasting System with Probabilistic Forecasts

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Torben Skov

    2006-01-01

    speed (due to the non-linearity of the power curve) and the forecast horizon. With respect to the predictability of the actual meteorological situation a number of explanatory variables are considered, some inspired by the literature. The article contains an overview of related work within the field...

  14. Near horizon structure of extremal vanishing horizon black holes

    S. Sadeghian

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We study the near horizon structure of Extremal Vanishing Horizon (EVH black holes, extremal black holes with vanishing horizon area with a vanishing one-cycle on the horizon. We construct the most general near horizon EVH and near-EVH ansatz for the metric and other fields, like dilaton and gauge fields which may be present in the theory. We prove that (1 the near horizon EVH geometry for generic gravity theory in generic dimension has a three dimensional maximally symmetric subspace; (2 if the matter fields of the theory satisfy strong energy condition either this 3d part is AdS3, or the solution is a direct product of a locally 3d flat space and a d−3 dimensional part; (3 these results extend to the near horizon geometry of near-EVH black holes, for which the AdS3 part is replaced with BTZ geometry. We present some specific near horizon EVH geometries in 3, 4 and 5 dimensions for which there is a classification. We also briefly discuss implications of these generic results for generic (gauged supergravity theories and also for the thermodynamics of near-EVH black holes and the EVH/CFT proposal.

  15. Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

    Reikard, Gordon

    2011-06-01

    Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

  16. Cauchy horizons in Gowdy spacetimes

    Chrusciel, Piotr T; Lake, Kayll

    2004-01-01

    We analyse exhaustively the structure of non-degenerate Cauchy horizons in Gowdy spacetimes, and we establish existence of a large class of non-polarized Gowdy spacetimes with such horizons. Our results here, together with the deep new results of Ringstroem, establish strong cosmic censorship in (toroidal) Gowdy spacetimes

  17. Nowcasting and Forecasting the Monthly Food Stamps Data in the US Using Online Search Data

    Fantazzini, Dean

    2014-01-01

    We propose the use of Google online search data for nowcasting and forecasting the number of food stamps recipients. We perform a large out-of-sample forecasting exercise with almost 3000 competing models with forecast horizons up to 2 years ahead, and we show that models including Google search data statistically outperform the competing models at all considered horizons. These results hold also with several robustness checks, considering alternative keywords, a falsification test, different out-of-samples, directional accuracy and forecasts at the state-level. PMID:25369315

  18. The Use of Ambient Humidity Conditions to Improve Influenza Forecast

    Shaman, J. L.; Kandula, S.; Yang, W.; Karspeck, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    Laboratory and epidemiological evidence indicate that ambient humidity modulates the survival and transmission of influenza. Here we explore whether the inclusion of humidity forcing in mathematical models describing influenza transmission improves the accuracy of forecasts generated with those models. We generate retrospective forecasts for 95 cities over 10 seasons in the United States and assess both forecast accuracy and error. Overall, we find that humidity forcing improves forecast performance and that forecasts generated using daily climatological humidity forcing generally outperform forecasts that utilize daily observed humidity forcing. These findings hold for predictions of outbreak peak intensity, peak timing, and incidence over 2- and 4-week horizons. The results indicate that use of climatological humidity forcing is warranted for current operational influenza forecast and provide further evidence that humidity modulates rates of influenza transmission.

  19. A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Suseelatha Annamareddi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and wavelet reconstruction method. The variation characteristics of the resulting series are analyzed to arrive at reasonable thresholds that yield good denoising results. The constitutive series are then forecasted using appropriate exponential adaptive smoothing models. A case study performed on California energy market data demonstrates that the proposed method can offer high forecasting precision for very short-term forecasts, considering a time horizon of two weeks.

  20. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    MOSWOC forecasters view verification results in near real-time; plans to objectively assess flare forecasts under the EU Horizon 2020 FLARECAST project; and summarise ISES efforts to achieve consensus on verification.

  1. Probabilistic Forecasting for On-line Operation of Urban Drainage Systems

    Löwe, Roland

    This thesis deals with the generation of probabilistic forecasts in urban hydrology. In particular, we focus on the case of runoff forecasting for real-time control (RTC) on horizons of up to two hours. For the generation of probabilistic on-line runoff forecasts, we apply the stochastic grey...... and forecasts have on on-line runoff forecast quality. Finally, we implement the stochastic grey-box model approach in a real-world real-time control (RTC) setup and study how RTC can benefit from a dynamic quantification of runoff forecast uncertainty....

  2. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 hours. The data used is fifteen......-minute observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques....... Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to two hours...

  3. Unlimited energy, restricted carbohydrate diet improves lipid parameters in obese children.

    Dunlap, Brian S; Bailes, James R

    2008-03-01

    Childhood obesity is a leading health concern. We have previously demonstrated the effectiveness of a restricted-carbohydrate, unlimited energy diet for weight reduction in elementary school-aged children. To our knowledge, there are no studies that have looked at the effect of this diet on lipid profiles in elementary school-aged children. Therefore, the objective of this pilot study was to examine the effect of a restricted-carbohydrate, unlimited protein, unlimited energy diet on lipid profiles in obese children 6 to 12 years of age. Overweight children (body mass index >97%) referred to our obesity clinic were treated with a restricted-carbohydrate (unlimited protein, and unlimited energy diet. Weight, height, body mass index, and fasting lipid profiles were obtained at baseline and at 10 weeks on each patient. Twenty-seven patients were enrolled in our study, with a total of 18 patients returning for our 10 week follow-up (67%). The study group included 10 males and 8 females, with an age range of 6 to 12 years. Both total serum cholesterol and triglyceride levels showed a significant reduction; 24.2 (P = 0.018) and 56.9 (P = 0.015) mg/dL, respectively. We have demonstrated a significant decrease in total cholesterol and triglycerides in elementary school-aged children after 10 weeks of a restricted-carbohydrate, unlimited protein, and unlimited energy diet. We suggest that this diet may decrease cardiovascular risk factors in obese children. Long-term studies will be needed to substantiate these data.

  4. Valuing hydrological forecasts for a pumped storage assisted hydro facility

    Zhao, Guangzhi; Davison, Matt

    2009-07-01

    SummaryThis paper estimates the value of a perfectly accurate short-term hydrological forecast to the operator of a hydro electricity generating facility which can sell its power at time varying but predictable prices. The expected value of a less accurate forecast will be smaller. We assume a simple random model for water inflows and that the costs of operating the facility, including water charges, will be the same whether or not its operator has inflow forecasts. Thus, the improvement in value from better hydrological prediction results from the increased ability of the forecast using facility to sell its power at high prices. The value of the forecast is therefore the difference between the sales of a facility operated over some time horizon with a perfect forecast, and the sales of a similar facility operated over the same time horizon with similar water inflows which, though governed by the same random model, cannot be forecast. This paper shows that the value of the forecast is an increasing function of the inflow process variance and quantifies how much the value of this perfect forecast increases with the variance of the water inflow process. Because the lifetime of hydroelectric facilities is long, the small increase observed here can lead to an increase in the profitability of hydropower investments.

  5. Forecasting Tehran stock exchange volatility; Markov switching GARCH approach

    Abounoori, Esmaiel; Elmi, Zahra (Mila); Nademi, Younes

    2016-03-01

    This paper evaluates several GARCH models regarding their ability to forecast volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). These include GARCH models with both Gaussian and fat-tailed residual conditional distribution, concerning their ability to describe and forecast volatility from 1-day to 22-day horizon. Results indicate that AR(2)-MRSGARCH-GED model outperforms other models at one-day horizon. Also, the AR(2)-MRSGARCH-GED as well as AR(2)-MRSGARCH-t models outperform other models at 5-day horizon. In 10 day horizon, three models of AR(2)-MRSGARCH outperform other models. Concerning 22 day forecast horizon, results indicate no differences between MRSGARCH models with that of standard GARCH models. Regarding Risk management out-of-sample evaluation (95% VaR), a few models seem to provide reasonable and accurate VaR estimates at 1-day horizon, with a coverage rate close to the nominal level. According to the risk management loss functions, there is not a uniformly most accurate model.

  6. Three theorems on near horizon extremal vanishing horizon geometries

    S. Sadeghian

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available EVH black holes are Extremal black holes with Vanishing Horizon area, where vanishing of horizon area is a result of having a vanishing one-cycle on the horizon. We prove three theorems regarding near horizon geometry of EVH black hole solutions to generic Einstein gravity theories in diverse dimensions. These generic gravity theories are Einstein–Maxwell-dilaton-Λ theories, and gauged or ungauged supergravity theories with U(1 Maxwell fields. Our three theorems are: (1 The near horizon geometry of any EVH black hole has a three dimensional maximally symmetric subspace. (2 If the energy momentum tensor of the theory satisfies strong energy condition either this 3d part is an AdS3, or the solution is a direct product of a locally 3d flat space and a d−3 dimensional part. (3 These results extend to the near horizon geometry of near-EVH black holes, for which the AdS3 part is replaced with BTZ geometry.

  7. New Technology Trends in Education: Seven Years of Forecasts and Convergence

    Martin, Sergio; Diaz, Gabriel; Sancristobal, Elio; Gil, Rosario; Castro, Manuel; Peire, Juan

    2011-01-01

    Each year since 2004, a new Horizon Report has been released. Each edition attempts to forecast the most promising technologies likely to impact on education along three horizons: the short term (the year of the report), the mid-term (the next 2 years) and the long term (the next 4 years). This paper analyzes the evolution of technology trends…

  8. Killing Horizons as Equipotential Hypersurfaces

    Smolić, Ivica

    2012-01-01

    In this note we present a new proof that Killing horizons are equipotential hypersurfaces for the electric and the magnetic scalar potential, that makes no use of gravitational field equations or the assumption about the existence of bifurcation surface.

  9. Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models

    Syazreen Shair

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Coherent models were developed recently to forecast the mortality of two or more sub-populations simultaneously and to ensure long-term non-divergent mortality forecasts of sub-populations. This paper evaluates the forecast accuracy of two recently-published coherent mortality models, the Poisson common factor and the product-ratio functional models. These models are compared to each other and the corresponding independent models, as well as the original Lee–Carter model. All models are applied to age-gender-specific mortality data for Australia and Malaysia and age-gender-ethnicity-specific data for Malaysia. The out-of-sample forecast error of log death rates, male-to-female death rate ratios and life expectancy at birth from each model are compared and examined across groups. The results show that, in terms of overall accuracy, the forecasts of both coherent models are consistently more accurate than those of the independent models for Australia and for Malaysia, but the relative performance differs by forecast horizon. Although the product-ratio functional model outperforms the Poisson common factor model for Australia, the Poisson common factor is more accurate for Malaysia. For the ethnic groups application, ethnic-coherence gives better results than gender-coherence. The results provide evidence that coherent models are preferable to independent models for forecasting sub-populations’ mortality.

  10. Using ensemble forecasting for wind power

    Giebel, G.; Landberg, L.; Badger, J. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Sattler, K.

    2003-07-01

    Short-term prediction of wind power has a long tradition in Denmark. It is an essential tool for the operators to keep the grid from becoming unstable in a region like Jutland, where more than 27% of the electricity consumption comes from wind power. This means that the minimum load is already lower than the maximum production from wind energy alone. Danish utilities have therefore used short-term prediction of wind energy since the mid-90ies. However, the accuracy is still far from being sufficient in the eyes of the utilities (used to have load forecasts accurate to within 5% on a one-week horizon). The Ensemble project tries to alleviate the dependency of the forecast quality on one model by using multiple models, and also will investigate the possibilities of using the model spread of multiple models or of dedicated ensemble runs for a prediction of the uncertainty of the forecast. Usually, short-term forecasting works (especially for the horizon beyond 6 hours) by gathering input from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. This input data is used together with online data in statistical models (this is the case eg in Zephyr/WPPT) to yield the output of the wind farms or of a whole region for the next 48 hours (only limited by the NWP model horizon). For the accuracy of the final production forecast, the accuracy of the NWP prediction is paramount. While many efforts are underway to increase the accuracy of the NWP forecasts themselves (which ultimately are limited by the amount of computing power available, the lack of a tight observational network on the Atlantic and limited physics modelling), another approach is to use ensembles of different models or different model runs. This can be either an ensemble of different models output for the same area, using different data assimilation schemes and different model physics, or a dedicated ensemble run by a large institution, where the same model is run with slight variations in initial conditions and

  11. Forecasting biodiversity in breeding birds using best practices

    David J. Harris

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity forecasts are important for conservation, management, and evaluating how well current models characterize natural systems. While the number of forecasts for biodiversity is increasing, there is little information available on how well these forecasts work. Most biodiversity forecasts are not evaluated to determine how well they predict future diversity, fail to account for uncertainty, and do not use time-series data that captures the actual dynamics being studied. We addressed these limitations by using best practices to explore our ability to forecast the species richness of breeding birds in North America. We used hindcasting to evaluate six different modeling approaches for predicting richness. Hindcasts for each method were evaluated annually for a decade at 1,237 sites distributed throughout the continental United States. All models explained more than 50% of the variance in richness, but none of them consistently outperformed a baseline model that predicted constant richness at each site. The best practices implemented in this study directly influenced the forecasts and evaluations. Stacked species distribution models and “naive” forecasts produced poor estimates of uncertainty and accounting for this resulted in these models dropping in the relative performance compared to other models. Accounting for observer effects improved model performance overall, but also changed the rank ordering of models because it did not improve the accuracy of the “naive” model. Considering the forecast horizon revealed that the prediction accuracy decreased across all models as the time horizon of the forecast increased. To facilitate the rapid improvement of biodiversity forecasts, we emphasize the value of specific best practices in making forecasts and evaluating forecasting methods.

  12. Forecasting biodiversity in breeding birds using best practices

    Taylor, Shawn D.; White, Ethan P.

    2018-01-01

    Biodiversity forecasts are important for conservation, management, and evaluating how well current models characterize natural systems. While the number of forecasts for biodiversity is increasing, there is little information available on how well these forecasts work. Most biodiversity forecasts are not evaluated to determine how well they predict future diversity, fail to account for uncertainty, and do not use time-series data that captures the actual dynamics being studied. We addressed these limitations by using best practices to explore our ability to forecast the species richness of breeding birds in North America. We used hindcasting to evaluate six different modeling approaches for predicting richness. Hindcasts for each method were evaluated annually for a decade at 1,237 sites distributed throughout the continental United States. All models explained more than 50% of the variance in richness, but none of them consistently outperformed a baseline model that predicted constant richness at each site. The best practices implemented in this study directly influenced the forecasts and evaluations. Stacked species distribution models and “naive” forecasts produced poor estimates of uncertainty and accounting for this resulted in these models dropping in the relative performance compared to other models. Accounting for observer effects improved model performance overall, but also changed the rank ordering of models because it did not improve the accuracy of the “naive” model. Considering the forecast horizon revealed that the prediction accuracy decreased across all models as the time horizon of the forecast increased. To facilitate the rapid improvement of biodiversity forecasts, we emphasize the value of specific best practices in making forecasts and evaluating forecasting methods. PMID:29441230

  13. Time orientation, planning horizons and responsibility into the future

    Svenson, O.; Nilsson, G.

    1988-01-01

    Subjects of four categories (social science students, engineering students, retired people and nuclear waste experts) were asked about past events, planning, risks and future time with emphasis on energy related issues and in particular questions concerning spent nuclear waste. Among, the results reported it was found that events in the past were located more or less correctly and that events further back systematically too close to the present. Today's responsibility into the future was judged to cover 3 to 6 generations ahead and an adequate planning horizon for a local community to be on the average 11 to 14 years. Adequate planning horizons for the handling of spent nuclear fuel were judged to be from 100 to 500 years. The responsibility for effects of today's decisions was judged to be from about 100 to 300 years into the future for environmental pollution and from about 50 to 600 years for nuclear waste. However, non-negliqable proportions of the subjects choose a more moral standpoint and gave answers indicating that responsibility had to be unlimited. Some sex differences were found and an interaction with age offered as a hypothesis to be investigated in the future. Interrelations between clusters of questions revealed some links from past time and planning to judgements of environmental and nuclear power related risks. (orig.)

  14. Electrodynamics of the event horizon

    Punsly, B.; Coroniti, F.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper is an investigation of the electrodynamics of the event horizon of a Kerr black hole. It is demonstrated that the event horizon behaves quite generally as an asymptotic vacuum infinity for axisymmetric, charge-neutral, accreting electromagnetic sources. This is in contrast with the general notion that the event horizon can be treated as an imperfect conductive membrane with a surface impedance of 4π/c. The conductive-membrane model has been incorporated into the more sophisticated membrane paradigm of Thorne, Price, and Macdonald by supplementing the model with the full equations of general relativity. In certain situations (in particular those of astrophysical interest), the conductive-membrane interpretation forms the appropriate set of pictures and images in the membrane paradigm. In this paper we reevaluate the specific gedanken experiments that were originally used to motivate the paradigm. We find that great care must be exercised if the detailed interaction of a black hole's external gravitational field with a magnetized plasma is modeled by the electrodynamics of the conductive horizon membrane. For ingoing flows of plasma or electromagnetic waves (when the hole is passively accepting information), the interpretation of the horizon as a vacuum infinity is equivalent to an imperfect conductor with a surface impedance of 4π/c (the impedance of the vacuum). In situations when an imperfect conductor should radiate information (such as a Faraday wheel) the event horizon cannot, since it is an infinity. The event horizon does not behave quite generally as an imperfect conductor, but has electrodynamic properties unique to itself

  15. TradeWind Deliverable 2.2: Forecast error of aggregated wind power

    Giebel, Gregor; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Holttinen, Hannele

    2007-01-01

    Estimates of forecast error of aggregated production for time horizons of intraday and dayahead markets in future will be produced. This will be done by reference to published studies of forecasting for wind generation, and from internal knowledge of WP2 participants. Modelling of wind power fluctuations...

  16. Analysts’ forecast error: A robust prediction model and its short term trading profitability

    Boudt, K.M.R.; de Goei, P.; Thewissen, J.; van Campenhout, G.

    2015-01-01

    This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the investment horizon salient to trading based on predicting the error in analysts' earnings forecasts. An econometric framework is proposed that accommodates the stylized fact of extreme values in the forecast error series. We find that between

  17. Multi-site solar power forecasting using gradient boosted regression trees

    Persson, Caroline Stougård; Bacher, Peder; Shiga, Takahiro

    2017-01-01

    The challenges to optimally utilize weather dependent renewable energy sources call for powerful tools for forecasting. This paper presents a non-parametric machine learning approach used for multi-site prediction of solar power generation on a forecast horizon of one to six hours. Historical pow...

  18. FORECASTING OF PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF NEW VEHICLES

    O. S. Krasheninin

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The research work focuses on forecasting of performance evaluation of the tractive and non-tractive vehicles that will satisfy and meet the needs and requirements of the railway industry, which is constantly evolving. Methodology. Analysis of the technical condition of the existing fleet of rolling stock (tractive and non-tractive of Ukrainian Railways shows a substantial reduction that occurs in connection with its moral and physical wear and tear, as well as insufficient and limited purchase of new units of the tractive and non-tractive rolling stock in the desired quantity. In this situation there is a necessity of search of the methods for determination of rolling stock technical characteristics. One of such urgent and effective measures is to conduct forecasting of the defining characteristics of the vehicles based on the processes of their reproduction in conditions of limited resources using a continuous exponential function. The function of the growth rate of the projected figure degree for the vehicle determines the logistic characteristic that with unlimited resources has the form of an exponent, and with low ones – that of a line. Findings. The data obtained according to the proposed method allowed determining the expected (future value, that is the ratio of load to volume of the body for non-tractive rolling stock (gondola cars and weight-to-power for tractive rolling stock, the degree of forecast reliability and the standard forecast error, which show high prediction accuracy for the completed procedure. As a result, this will allow estimating the required characteristics of vehicles in the forecast year with high accuracy. Originality. The concept of forecasting the characteristics of the vehicles for decision-making on the evaluation of their prospects was proposed. Practical value. The forecasting methodology will reliably determine the technical parameters of tractive and non-tractive rolling stock, which will meet

  19. 75 FR 69577 - Deposit Insurance Regulations; Unlimited Coverage for Noninterest-Bearing Transaction Accounts

    2010-11-15

    ..., contending that providing such coverage for these accounts promotes moral hazard. Four commenters suggested... withdrawals at any time, whether held by a business, an individual or other type of depositor. Unlike the... for unlimited separate coverage as a noninterest-bearing transaction account. One issue raised during...

  20. Protective effect of inhaled budesonide against unlimited airway narrowing to methacholine in atopic patients with asthma

    Booms, P.; Cheung, D.; Timmers, M. C.; Zwinderman, A. H.; Sterk, P. J.

    1997-01-01

    Patients with asthma who have moderate to severe airway hyperresponsiveness often demonstrate progressive, unlimited airway narrowing in response to inhaled bronchoconstrictor stimuli, which is likely to be due to inflammatory changes within the airway wall. It is unknown whether regular therapy

  1. 29 CFR 1625.11 - Exemption for employees serving under a contract of unlimited tenure.

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Exemption for employees serving under a contract of unlimited tenure. 1625.11 Section 1625.11 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) EQUAL EMPLOYMENT... within the exemption can lawfully be forced to retire on account of age at age 70 (see paragraph (a)(1...

  2. 26 CFR 1.642(c)-1 - Unlimited deduction for amounts paid for a charitable purpose.

    2010-04-01

    ... the election was made, (iii) The office of the district director, or the service center, where the....642(c)-1 Unlimited deduction for amounts paid for a charitable purpose. (a) In general. (1) Any part... election, to a related estate, as defined under § 1.645-1(b), for the amount so paid. (2) In determining...

  3. Forecasting daily political opinion polls using the fractionally cointegrated VAR model

    Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Shibaev, Sergei S.

    We examine forecasting performance of the recent fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model. We use daily polling data of political support in the United Kingdom for 2010-2015 and compare with popular competing models at several forecast horizons. Our findings show that the four...... trend from the model follows the vote share of the UKIP very closely, and we thus interpret it as a measure of Euro-skepticism in public opinion rather than an indicator of the more traditional left-right political spectrum. In terms of prediction of vote shares in the election, forecasts generated...... variants of the FCVAR model considered are generally ranked as the top four models in terms of forecast accuracy, and the FCVAR model significantly outperforms both univariate fractional models and the standard cointegrated VAR (CVAR) model at all forecast horizons. The relative forecast improvement...

  4. On the directional accuracy of survey forecasts: the case of gold and silver

    Fritsche, U.; Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.

    2013-01-01

    We use a nonparametric market-timing test to study the directional accuracy of survey forecasts of the prices of gold and silver. We find that forecasters have market-timing ability with respect to the direction of change of the price of silver at various forecast horizons. In contrast, forecasters...... have no market-timing ability with respect to the direction of change in the gold price. Combining forecasts of both metal prices to set up a multivariate market-timing test yields no evidence of joint predictability of the directions of change of the prices of gold and silver....

  5. Moving Horizon Estimation and Control

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    successful and applied methodology beyond PID-control for control of industrial processes. The main contribution of this thesis is introduction and definition of the extended linear quadratic optimal control problem for solution of numerical problems arising in moving horizon estimation and control...... problems. Chapter 1 motivates moving horizon estimation and control as a paradigm for control of industrial processes. It introduces the extended linear quadratic control problem and discusses its central role in moving horizon estimation and control. Introduction, application and efficient solution....... It provides an algorithm for computation of the maximal output admissible set for linear model predictive control. Appendix D provides results concerning linear regression. Appendix E discuss prediction error methods for identification of linear models tailored for model predictive control....

  6. Plasmonic Horizon in Gold Nanosponges.

    Vidal, Cynthia; Sivun, Dmitry; Ziegler, Johannes; Wang, Dong; Schaaf, Peter; Hrelescu, Calin; Klar, Thomas A

    2018-02-14

    An electromagnetic wave impinging on a gold nanosponge coherently excites many electromagnetic hot-spots inside the nanosponge, yielding a polarization-dependent scattering spectrum. In contrast, a hole, recombining with an electron, can locally excite plasmonic hot-spots only within a horizon given by the lifetime of localized plasmons and the speed carrying the information that a plasmon has been created. This horizon is about 57 nm, decreasing with increasing size of the nanosponge. Consequently, photoluminescence from large gold nanosponges appears unpolarized.

  7. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kewr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kpga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kbkw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kbih Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kpne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. ptpn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. panc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kcmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kdls Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. koaj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. krhi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kbpk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. khuf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kbpi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. ktrk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kwmc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. katy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. tjmz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kdet Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kcxp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kbur Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. krkd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. pawg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kloz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kcec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kdec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. paor Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kavl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kdrt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kstl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kbfi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. khsv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. pafa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kekn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. tncm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kith Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kgnv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. ktoi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kgso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. nstu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kmgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. khib Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. pavd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kfar Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kluk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kwwr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. klse Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. ksts Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. koth Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kbfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ksgf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kpkb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. krog Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kbjc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. ksea Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kbwi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kftw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kpuw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kabq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. ksny Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. khio Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. klaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kfoe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. ksmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kipt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. klch Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kink Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. krut Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kbli Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kaoo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. klit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. ktup Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. ktop Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. klax Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kprc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. katl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kmcn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kogb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kama Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. ptkk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kiwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kavp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kdca Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kbwg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kdfw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kssi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. pahn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. ksrq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kpvd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kisp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kttd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. pmdy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kont Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kyng Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kcwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kflg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. krsw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kmyl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. krbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kril Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. ksus Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. padq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kbil Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. krfd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. ktix Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kcod Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kslk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kgfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kguc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kmlu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kbff Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. ksmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kdro Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kmce Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. ktpa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kmot Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. klws Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kotm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. khqm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kabr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. klal Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kelp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kecg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. khbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kpbf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. konp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. pkwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. ktvf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. paga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. khks Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kdsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kpsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kgrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. pamc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. klrd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. ksan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kowb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. paaq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kpit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kcrw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kast Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kuin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. Probabilistic forecasting for extreme NO2 pollution episodes

    Aznarte, José L.

    2017-01-01

    In this study, we investigate the convenience of quantile regression to predict extreme concentrations of NO 2 . Contrarily to the usual point-forecasting, where a single value is forecast for each horizon, probabilistic forecasting through quantile regression allows for the prediction of the full probability distribution, which in turn allows to build models specifically fit for the tails of this distribution. Using data from the city of Madrid, including NO 2 concentrations as well as meteorological measures, we build models that predict extreme NO 2 concentrations, outperforming point-forecasting alternatives, and we prove that the predictions are accurate, reliable and sharp. Besides, we study the relative importance of the independent variables involved, and show how the important variables for the median quantile are different than those important for the upper quantiles. Furthermore, we present a method to compute the probability of exceedance of thresholds, which is a simple and comprehensible manner to present probabilistic forecasts maximizing their usefulness. - Highlights: • A new probabilistic forecasting system is presented to predict NO 2 concentrations. • While predicting the full distribution, it also outperforms other point-forecasting models. • Forecasts show good properties and peak concentrations are properly predicted. • It forecasts the probability of exceedance of thresholds, key to decision makers. • Relative forecasting importance of the variables is obtained as a by-product.

  6. Robust forecast comparison

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  7. Neighborhoods of isolated horizons and their stationarity

    Lewandowski, Jerzy; Pawłowski, Tomasz

    2014-01-01

    A distinguished (invariant) Bondi-like coordinate system is defined in the spacetime neighborhood of a non-expanding horizon of arbitrary dimension via geometry invariants of the horizon. With its use, the radial expansion of a spacetime metric about the horizon is provided and the free data needed to specify it up to a given order are determined in spacetime dimension 4. For the case of an electro-vacuum horizon in four-dimensional spacetime, the necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a Killing field at its neighborhood are identified as differential conditions for the horizon data and data for the null surface transversal to the horizon. (paper)

  8. AN EVALUATION OF POINT AND DENSITY FORECASTS FOR SELECTED EU FARM GATE MILK PRICES

    Dennis Bergmann

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Fundamental changes to the common agricultural policy (CAP have led to greater market orientation which in turn has resulted in sharply increased variability of EU farm gate milk prices and thus farmers’ income. In this market environment reliable forecasts of farm gate milk prices are extremely important as farmers can make improved decisions with regards to cash flow management and budget preparation. In addition these forecasts may be used in setting fixed priced contracts between dairy farmers and processors thus providing certainty and reducing risk. In this study both point and density forecasts from various time series models for farm gate milk prices in Germany, Ireland and for an average EU price series are evaluated using a rolling window framework. Additionally forecasts of the individual models are combined using different combination schemes. The results of the out of sample evaluation show that ARIMA type models perform well on short forecast horizons (1 to 3 month while the structural time series approach performs well on longer forecast horizons (12 month. Finally combining individual forecasts of different models significantly improves the forecast performance for all forecast horizons.

  9. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  10. Event horizon and scalar potential

    Duruisseau, J.P.; Tonnelat, M.A.

    1977-01-01

    The introduction of a scalar potential with a more general scheme than General Relativity eliminates the event horizon. Among possible solutions, the Schwarzschild one represents a singular case. A study of the geodesic properties of the matching with an approximated interior solution are given. A new definition of the gravitational mass and chi function is deduced. (author)

  11. New Horizons in Education, 2000.

    Ho, Kwok Keung, Ed.

    2000-01-01

    This document contains the May and November 2000 issues of "New Horizons in Education," with articles in English and Chinese. The May issue includes the following articles: "A Key to Successful Environmental Education: Teacher Trainees' Attitude, Behaviour, and Knowledge" (Kevin Chung Wai Lui, Eric Po Keung Tsang, Sing Lai…

  12. Killing horizons as equipotential hypersurfaces

    Smolić, Ivica

    2012-01-01

    In this note we present a new proof that Killing horizons are equipotential hypersurfaces for the electric and the magnetic scalar potential, which makes no use of gravitational field equations or the assumption about the existence of a bifurcation surface. (note)

  13. Evolutionary Forecast Engines for Solar Meteorology

    Coimbra, C. F.

    2012-12-01

    A detailed comparison of non-stationary regression and stochastic learning methods based on k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) approaches is carried out in order to develop high-fidelity solar forecast engines for several time horizons of interest. A hybrid GA/ANN method emerges as the most robust stochastic learning candidate. The GA/ANN approach In general the following decisions need to be made when creating an ANN-based solar forecast model: the ANN architecture: number of layers, numbers of neurons per layer; the preprocessing scheme; the fraction and distribution between training and testing data, and the meteorological and radiometric inputs. ANNs are very well suited to handle multivariate forecasting models due to their overall flexibility and nonlinear pattern recognition abilities. However, the forecasting skill of ANNs depends on a new set of parameters to be optimized within the context of the forecast model, which is the selection of input variables that most directly impact the fidelity of the forecasts. In a data rich scenario where irradiation, meteorological, and cloud cover data are available, it is not always evident which variables to include in the model a priori. New variables can also arise from data preprocessing such as smoothing or spectral decomposition. One way to avoid time-consuming trial-and-error approaches that have limited chance to result in optimal ANN topology and input selection is to couple the ANN with some optimization algorithm that scans the solution space and "evolves" the ANN structure. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are well suited for this task. Results and Discussion The models built upon the historical data of 2009 and 2010 are applied to the 2011 data without modifications or retraining. We consider 3 solar variability seasons or periods, which are subsets of the total error evaluation data set. The 3 periods are defined based on the solar variability study as: - a high

  14. Weather forecast

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  15. Skill forecasting from ensemble predictions of wind power

    Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    Optimal management and trading of wind generation calls for the providing of uncertainty estimates along with the commonly provided short-term wind power point predictions. Alternative approaches for the use of probabilistic forecasting are introduced. More precisely, focus is given to prediction...... risk indices aiming to give a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the spread of ensemble forecasts (i.e. a set...... of alternative scenarios for the coming period) for a single prediction horizon or over a took-ahead period. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how these prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and potential energy imbalances). Wind power...

  16. Critical properties of unlimited gliding: Unexpected flocking behavior driven by the exchange of information

    Bigus-Kwiatkowska, Marta; Fronczak, Agata; Fronczak, Piotr

    2018-03-01

    Inspired by albatrosses that use thermal lifts to fly across oceans we develop a simple model of gliders that serves us to study theoretical limitations of unlimited exploration of the Earth. Our studies, grounded in physical theory of continuous percolation and biased random walks, allow us to identify a variety of percolation transitions, which are understood as providing potentially unlimited movement through a space in a specified direction. We discover an unexpected phenomenon of self-organization of gliders in clusters, which resembles the flock organization of birds. This self-organization is intriguing, as it occurs thanks to exchange of information only and without any particular rules that could favor the clustering of the gliders (in contrast to the causes well known in literature, like, for example, attractive forces used in the Vicsek-type models or fitness functions used in evolutionary computation).

  17. [A factor analysis method for contingency table data with unlimited multiple choice questions].

    Toyoda, Hideki; Haiden, Reina; Kubo, Saori; Ikehara, Kazuya; Isobe, Yurie

    2016-02-01

    The purpose of this study is to propose a method of factor analysis for analyzing contingency tables developed from the data of unlimited multiple-choice questions. This method assumes that the element of each cell of the contingency table has a binominal distribution and a factor analysis model is applied to the logit of the selection probability. Scree plot and WAIC are used to decide the number of factors, and the standardized residual, the standardized difference between the sample, and the proportion ratio, is used to select items. The proposed method was applied to real product impression research data on advertised chips and energy drinks. Since the results of the analysis showed that this method could be used in conjunction with conventional factor analysis model, and extracted factors were fully interpretable, and suggests the usefulness of the proposed method in the study of psychology using unlimited multiple-choice questions.

  18. Three-dimensional orientation-unlimited polarization encryption by a single optically configured vectorial beam.

    Li, Xiangping; Lan, Tzu-Hsiang; Tien, Chung-Hao; Gu, Min

    2012-01-01

    The interplay between light polarization and matter is the basis of many fundamental physical processes and applications. However, the electromagnetic wave nature of light in free space sets a fundamental limit on the three-dimensional polarization orientation of a light beam. Although a high numerical aperture objective can be used to bend the wavefront of a radially polarized beam to generate the longitudinal polarization state in the focal volume, the arbitrary three-dimensional polarization orientation of a beam has not been achieved yet. Here we present a novel technique for generating arbitrary three-dimensional polarization orientation by a single optically configured vectorial beam. As a consequence, by applying this technique to gold nanorods, orientation-unlimited polarization encryption with ultra-security is demonstrated. These results represent a new landmark of the orientation-unlimited three-dimensional polarization control of the light-matter interaction.

  19. Unlimited Energy Gain in the Laser-Driven Radiation Pressure Dominant Acceleration of Ions

    Bulanov, S. V.; Echkina, E. Yu.; Esirkepov, T. Zh.; Inovenkov, I. N.; Kando, M.; Pegoraro, F.; Korn, G.

    2009-01-01

    The energy of the ions accelerated by an intense electromagnetic wave in the radiation pressure dominated regime can be greatly enhanced due to a transverse expansion of a thin target. The expansion decreases the number of accelerated ions in the irradiated region increasing the energy and the longitudinal velocity of remaining ions. In the relativistic limit, the ions become phase-locked with respect to the electromagnetic wave resulting in the unlimited ion energy gain. This effect and the ...

  20. Sociopathic Knowledge Bases: Correct Knowledge Can Be Harmful Even Given Unlimited Computation

    1989-08-01

    1757 I Sociopathic Knowledge Bases: Correct Knowledge Can Be Harmful Even Given Unlimited Computation DTIC5 by flELECTE 5David C. Wilkins and Yong...NUMBERSWOKNI PROGRAM RAT TSWOKUI 61153N RR04206 OC 443g-008 11 TITLE (Include Security Classification) Sociopathic Knowledge Bases: Correct Knowledge Can be...probabilistic rules are shown to be sociopathic and so this problem is very widespread. Sociopathicity has important consequences for rule induction

  1. Cosmological and black hole apparent horizons

    Faraoni, Valerio

    2015-01-01

    This book overviews the extensive literature on apparent cosmological and black hole horizons. In theoretical gravity, dynamical situations such as gravitational collapse, black hole evaporation, and black holes interacting with non-trivial environments, as well as the attempts to model gravitational waves occurring in highly dynamical astrophysical processes, require that the concept of event horizon be generalized. Inequivalent notions of horizon abound in the technical literature and are discussed in this manuscript. The book begins with a quick review of basic material in the first one and a half chapters, establishing a unified notation. Chapter 2 reminds the reader of the basic tools used in the analysis of horizons and reviews the various definitions of horizons appearing in the literature. Cosmological horizons are the playground in which one should take baby steps in understanding horizon physics. Chapter 3 analyzes cosmological horizons, their proposed thermodynamics, and several coordinate systems....

  2. Entropy of black holes with multiple horizons

    He, Yun; Ma, Meng-Sen; Zhao, Ren

    2018-05-01

    We examine the entropy of black holes in de Sitter space and black holes surrounded by quintessence. These black holes have multiple horizons, including at least the black hole event horizon and a horizon outside it (cosmological horizon for de Sitter black holes and "quintessence horizon" for the black holes surrounded by quintessence). Based on the consideration that the two horizons are not independent each other, we conjecture that the total entropy of these black holes should not be simply the sum of entropies of the two horizons, but should have an extra term coming from the correlations between the two horizons. Different from our previous works, in this paper we consider the cosmological constant as the variable and employ an effective method to derive the explicit form of the entropy. We also try to discuss the thermodynamic stabilities of these black holes according to the entropy and the effective temperature.

  3. Hawking radiation from quasilocal dynamical horizons

    2016-01-06

    Jan 6, 2016 ... Abstract. In completely local settings, we establish that a dynamically evolving spherically symmetric black hole horizon can be assigned a Hawking temperature and with the emission of flux, radius of the horizon shrinks.

  4. Pricing Liquidity Risk with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons

    Beber, Alessandro; Driessen, Joost; Neuberger, A.; Tuijp, P

    We develop an asset pricing model with stochastic transaction costs and investors with heterogeneous horizons. Depending on their horizon, investors hold different sets of assets in equilibrium. This generates segmentation and spillover effects for expected returns, where the liquidity (risk)

  5. Precipitable water vapour forecasting: a tool for optimizing IR observations at Roque de los Muchachos Observatory.

    Pérez-Jordán, G.; Castro-Almazán, J. A.; Muñoz-Tuñón, C.

    2018-04-01

    We validate the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for precipitable water vapour (PWV) forecasting as a fully operational tool for optimizing astronomical infrared (IR) observations at Roque de los Muchachos Observatory (ORM). For the model validation we used GNSS-based (Global Navigation Satellite System) data from the PWV monitor located at the ORM. We have run WRF every 24 h for near two months, with a horizon of 48 hours (hourly forecasts), from 2016 January 11 to 2016 March 4. These runs represent 1296 hourly forecast points. The validation is carried out using different approaches: performance as a function of the forecast range, time horizon accuracy, performance as a function of the PWV value, and performance of the operational WRF time series with 24- and 48-hour horizons. Excellent agreement was found between the model forecasts and observations, with R =0.951 and R =0.904 for the 24- and 48-h forecast time series respectively. The 48-h forecast was further improved by correcting a time lag of 2 h found in the predictions. The final errors, taking into account all the uncertainties involved, are 1.75 mm for the 24-h forecasts and 1.99 mm for 48 h. We found linear trends in both the correlation and RMSE of the residuals (measurements - forecasts) as a function of the forecast range within the horizons analysed (up to 48 h). In summary, the WRF performance is excellent and accurate, thus allowing it to be implemented as an operational tool at the ORM.

  6. Investment horizon heterogeneity and wavelet: Overview and further research directions

    Chakrabarty, Anindya; De, Anupam; Gunasekaran, Angappa; Dubey, Rameshwar

    2015-07-01

    Wavelet based multi-scale analysis of financial time series has attracted much attention, lately, from both the academia and practitioners from all around the world. The unceasing metamorphosis of the discipline of finance from its humble beginning as applied economics to the more sophisticated depiction as applied physics and applied psychology has revolutionized the way we perceive the market and its complexities. One such complexity is the presence of heterogeneous horizon agents in the market. In this context, we have performed a generous review of different aspects of horizon heterogeneity that has been successfully elucidated through the synergy between wavelet theory and finance. The evolution of wavelet has been succinctly delineated to bestow necessary information to the readers who are new to this field. The migration of wavelet into finance and its subsequent branching into different sub-divisions have been sketched. The pertinent literature on the impact of horizon heterogeneity on risk, asset pricing and inter-dependencies of the financial time series are explored. The significant contributions are collated and classified in accordance to their purpose and approach so that potential researcher and practitioners, interested in this subject, can be benefited. Future research possibilities in the direction of "agency cost mitigation" and "synergy between econophysics and behavioral finance in stock market forecasting" are also suggested in the paper.

  7. Event horizon image within black hole shadow

    Dokuchaev, V. I.; Nazarova, N. O.

    2018-01-01

    The external border of the black hole shadow is washed out by radiation from matter plunging into black hole and approaching the event horizon. This effect will crucially influence the results of future observations by the Event Horizon Telescope. We show that gravitational lensing of the luminous matter plunging into black hole provides the event horizon visualization within black hole shadow. The lensed image of the event horizon is formed by the last highly red-shifted photons emitted by t...

  8. Horizon Detection In The Visible Spectrum

    2016-09-01

    processing units, to the software-based models in [7] and [8]. B. DEFINING THE HORIZON The horizon, according to the Oxford English Dictionary , is “the...Ed. Dordrecht, Holland: D. Reidel Publishing Company, 1978. [10] “horizon,” Oxford English Dictionary Online, 2016.[Online]. Available: http

  9. National Forecast Charts

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  10. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  11. 78 FR 54298 - Horizons ETFs Management (USA) LLC and Horizons ETF Trust; Notice of Application

    2013-09-03

    ... ETFs Management (USA) LLC and Horizons ETF Trust; Notice of Application August 27, 2013. AGENCY... Management (USA) LLC (``Horizons'') and Horizons ETF Trust (the ``Trust''). Summary of Application... of the Trust will be the Horizons Active Global Dividend ETF (the ``Initial Fund''), which will seek...

  12. Forecasting freight flows

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  13. Filters or Holt Winters Technique to Improve the SPF Forecasts for USA Inflation Rate?

    Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, transformations of SPF inflation forecasts were made in order to get moreaccurate predictions. The filters application and Holt Winters technique were chosen as possiblestrategies of improving the predictions accuracy. The quarterly inflation rate forecasts (1975 Q1-2012Q3 of USAmade by SPF were transformed using an exponential smoothing technique-HoltWinters-and these new predictions are better than the initial ones for all forecasting horizons of 4quarters. Some filters were applied to SPF forecasts (Hodrick-Prescott,Band-Pass and Christiano-Fitzegerald filters, but Holt Winters method was superior.Full sample asymmetric (Christiano-Fitzegerald and Band-Pass filtersmoothed values are more accurate than the SPF expectations onlyfor some forecast horizons.

  14. Tunneling from the past horizon

    Kang, Subeom; Yeom, Dong-han

    2018-04-01

    We investigate a tunneling and emission process of a thin-shell from a Schwarzschild black hole, where the shell was initially located beyond the Einstein-Rosen bridge and finally appears at the right side of the Penrose diagram. In order to obtain such a solution, we should assume that the areal radius of the black hole horizon increases after the tunneling. Hence, there is a parameter range such that the tunneling rate is exponentially enhanced, rather than suppressed. We may have two interpretations regarding this. First, such a tunneling process from the past horizon is improbable by physical reasons; second, such a tunneling is possible in principle, but in order to obtain a stable Einstein-Rosen bridge, one needs to restrict the parameter spaces. If such a process is allowed, this can be a nonperturbative contribution to Einstein-Rosen bridges as well as eternal black holes.

  15. Losing Information Outside the Horizon

    Samir D. Mathur

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Suppose we allow a system to fall freely from infinity to a point near (but not beyond the horizon of a black hole. We note that in a sense the information in the system is already lost to an observer at infinity. Once the system is too close to the horizon it does not have enough energy to send its information back because the information carrying quanta would get redshifted to a point where they get confused with Hawking radiation. If one attempts to turn the infalling system around and bring it back to infinity for observation then it will experience Unruh radiation from the required acceleration. This radiation can excite the bits in the system carrying the information, thus reducing the fidelity of this information. We find the radius where the information is essentially lost in this way, noting that this radius depends on the energy gap (and coupling of the system. We look for some universality by using the highly degenerate BPS ground states of a quantum gravity theory (string theory as our information storage device. For such systems one finds that the critical distance to the horizon set by Unruh radiation is the geometric mean of the black hole radius and the radius of the extremal hole with quantum numbers of the BPS bound state. Overall, the results suggest that information in gravity theories should be regarded not as a quantity contained in a system, but in terms of how much of this information is accessible to another observer.

  16. Verification of short lead time forecast models: applied to Kp and Dst forecasting

    Wintoft, Peter; Wik, Magnus

    2016-04-01

    In the ongoing EU/H2020 project PROGRESS models that predicts Kp, Dst, and AE from L1 solar wind data will be used as inputs to radiation belt models. The possible lead times from L1 measurements are shorter (10s of minutes to hours) than the typical duration of the physical phenomena that should be forecast. Under these circumstances several metrics fail to single out trivial cases, such as persistence. In this work we explore metrics and approaches for short lead time forecasts. We apply these to current Kp and Dst forecast models. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637302.

  17. Entropy of black holes with multiple horizons

    Yun He

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available We examine the entropy of black holes in de Sitter space and black holes surrounded by quintessence. These black holes have multiple horizons, including at least the black hole event horizon and a horizon outside it (cosmological horizon for de Sitter black holes and “quintessence horizon” for the black holes surrounded by quintessence. Based on the consideration that the two horizons are not independent each other, we conjecture that the total entropy of these black holes should not be simply the sum of entropies of the two horizons, but should have an extra term coming from the correlations between the two horizons. Different from our previous works, in this paper we consider the cosmological constant as the variable and employ an effective method to derive the explicit form of the entropy. We also try to discuss the thermodynamic stabilities of these black holes according to the entropy and the effective temperature.

  18. Conformal Killing horizons and their thermodynamics

    Nielsen, Alex B.; Shoom, Andrey A.

    2018-05-01

    Certain dynamical black hole solutions can be mapped to static spacetimes by conformal metric transformations. This mapping provides a physical link between the conformal Killing horizon of the dynamical black hole and the Killing horizon of the static spacetime. Using the Vaidya spacetime as an example, we show how this conformal relation can be used to derive thermodynamic properties of such dynamical black holes. Although these horizons are defined quasi-locally and can be located by local experiments, they are distinct from other popular notions of quasi-local horizons such as apparent horizons. Thus in the dynamical Vaidya spacetime describing constant accretion of null dust, the conformal Killing horizon, which is null by construction, is the natural horizon to describe the black hole.

  19. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  20. A comparison between the ECMWF and COSMO Ensemble Prediction Systems applied to short-term wind power forecasting on real data

    Alessandrini, S.; Sperati, S.; Pinson, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    together with a single forecast power value for each future time horizon. A comparison between two different ensemble forecasting models, ECMWF EPS (Ensemble Prediction System in use at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and COSMO-LEPS (Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System developed...... ahead forecast horizon. A statistical calibration of the ensemble wind speed members based on the use of past wind speed measurements is explained. The two models are compared using common verification indices and diagrams. The higher horizontal resolution model (COSMO-LEPS) shows slightly better...

  1. Online short-term heat load forecasting for single family houses

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2013-01-01

    . Every hour the hourly heat load for each house the following two days is forecasted. The forecast models are adaptive linear time-series models and the climate inputs used are: ambient temperature, global radiation, and wind speed. A computationally efficient recursive least squares scheme is used......This paper presents a method for forecasting the load for heating in a single-family house. Both space and hot tap water heating are forecasted. The forecasting model is built using data from sixteen houses in Sønderborg, Denmark, combined with local climate measurements and weather forecasts...... variations in the heat load signal (predominant only for some houses), peaks presumably from showers, shifts in resident behavior, and uncertainty of the weather forecasts for longer horizons, especially for the solar radiation....

  2. Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models

    Kavasseri, Rajesh G.; Seetharaman, Krithika

    2009-01-01

    With the integration of wind energy into electricity grids, it is becoming increasingly important to obtain accurate wind speed/power forecasts. Accurate wind speed forecasts are necessary to schedule dispatchable generation and tariffs in the day-ahead electricity market. This paper examines the use of fractional-ARIMA or f-ARIMA models to model, and forecast wind speeds on the day-ahead (24 h) and two-day-ahead (48 h) horizons. The models are applied to wind speed records obtained from four potential wind generation sites in North Dakota. The forecasted wind speeds are used in conjunction with the power curve of an operational (NEG MICON, 750 kW) turbine to obtain corresponding forecasts of wind power production. The forecast errors in wind speed/power are analyzed and compared with the persistence model. Results indicate that significant improvements in forecasting accuracy are obtained with the proposed models compared to the persistence method. (author)

  3. Parametric decadal climate forecast recalibration (DeFoReSt 1.0

    A. Pasternack

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Near-term climate predictions such as decadal climate forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. For near-term probabilistic predictions to be useful, systematic errors of the forecasting systems have to be corrected. While methods for the calibration of probabilistic forecasts are readily available, these have to be adapted to the specifics of decadal climate forecasts including the long time horizon of decadal climate forecasts, lead-time-dependent systematic errors (drift and the errors in the representation of long-term changes and variability. These features are compounded by small ensemble sizes to describe forecast uncertainty and a relatively short period for which typically pairs of reforecasts and observations are available to estimate calibration parameters. We introduce the Decadal Climate Forecast Recalibration Strategy (DeFoReSt, a parametric approach to recalibrate decadal ensemble forecasts that takes the above specifics into account. DeFoReSt optimizes forecast quality as measured by the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS. Using a toy model to generate synthetic forecast observation pairs, we demonstrate the positive effect on forecast quality in situations with pronounced and limited predictability. Finally, we apply DeFoReSt to decadal surface temperature forecasts from the MiKlip prototype system and find consistent, and sometimes considerable, improvements in forecast quality compared with a simple calibration of the lead-time-dependent systematic errors.

  4. Parametric decadal climate forecast recalibration (DeFoReSt 1.0)

    Pasternack, Alexander; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark A.; Rust, Henning W.; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2018-01-01

    Near-term climate predictions such as decadal climate forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. For near-term probabilistic predictions to be useful, systematic errors of the forecasting systems have to be corrected. While methods for the calibration of probabilistic forecasts are readily available, these have to be adapted to the specifics of decadal climate forecasts including the long time horizon of decadal climate forecasts, lead-time-dependent systematic errors (drift) and the errors in the representation of long-term changes and variability. These features are compounded by small ensemble sizes to describe forecast uncertainty and a relatively short period for which typically pairs of reforecasts and observations are available to estimate calibration parameters. We introduce the Decadal Climate Forecast Recalibration Strategy (DeFoReSt), a parametric approach to recalibrate decadal ensemble forecasts that takes the above specifics into account. DeFoReSt optimizes forecast quality as measured by the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). Using a toy model to generate synthetic forecast observation pairs, we demonstrate the positive effect on forecast quality in situations with pronounced and limited predictability. Finally, we apply DeFoReSt to decadal surface temperature forecasts from the MiKlip prototype system and find consistent, and sometimes considerable, improvements in forecast quality compared with a simple calibration of the lead-time-dependent systematic errors.

  5. Enhancing creativity for individuals, groups and organizations: Creativity as the Unlimited Application of Knowledge

    Byrge, Christian; Hansen, Søren

    How do we become creative individuals, by ourselves and with others? How do we increase innovation in our work or study environments? How do we learn to think in unlimited ways? The answers to these questions can be found in this book, which presents new methods for enhancing our own and others......, cultural or professional backgrounds. Using a newly developed scientific theory combined with three practical and thoroughly tested methods, scholars Christian Byrge and Søren Hansen demonstrate how to increase our possibilities for creative thinking in both our academic, professional and private lives...

  6. Probabilistic Forecasting of the Wave Energy Flux

    Pinson, Pierre; Reikard, G.; Bidlot, J.-R.

    2012-01-01

    Wave energy will certainly have a significant role to play in the deployment of renewable energy generation capacities. As with wind and solar, probabilistic forecasts of wave power over horizons of a few hours to a few days are required for power system operation as well as trading in electricit......% and 70% in terms of Continuous Rank Probability Score (CRPS), depending upon the test case and the lead time. It is finally shown that the log-Normal assumption can be seen as acceptable, even though it may be refined in the future....

  7. On black hole horizon fluctuations

    Tuchin, K.L.

    1999-01-01

    A study of the high angular momentum particles 'atmosphere' near the Schwarzschild black hole horizon suggested that strong gravitational interactions occur at invariant distance of the order of 3 √M [2]. We present a generalization of this result to the Kerr-Newman black hole case. It is shown that the larger charge and angular momentum black hole bears, the larger invariant distance at which strong gravitational interactions occur becomes. This invariant distance is of order 3 √((r + 2 )/((r + - r - ))). This implies that the Planckian structure of the Hawking radiation of extreme black holes is completely broken

  8. Forecasting urban water demand: A meta-regression analysis.

    Sebri, Maamar

    2016-12-01

    Water managers and planners require accurate water demand forecasts over the short-, medium- and long-term for many purposes. These range from assessing water supply needs over spatial and temporal patterns to optimizing future investments and planning future allocations across competing sectors. This study surveys the empirical literature on the urban water demand forecasting using the meta-analytical approach. Specifically, using more than 600 estimates, a meta-regression analysis is conducted to identify explanations of cross-studies variation in accuracy of urban water demand forecasting. Our study finds that accuracy depends significantly on study characteristics, including demand periodicity, modeling method, forecasting horizon, model specification and sample size. The meta-regression results remain robust to different estimators employed as well as to a series of sensitivity checks performed. The importance of these findings lies in the conclusions and implications drawn out for regulators and policymakers and for academics alike. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  10. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  11. Variable horizon in a peridynamic medium.

    Silling, Stewart Andrew; Littlewood, David John; Seleson, Pablo

    2014-10-01

    A notion of material homogeneity is proposed for peridynamic bodies with vari- able horizon but constant bulk properties. A relation is derived that scales the force state according to the position-dependent horizon while keeping the bulk properties un- changed. Using this scaling relation, if the horizon depends on position, artifacts called ghost forces may arise in a body under homogeneous deformation. These artifacts de- pend on the second derivative of horizon and can be reduced by use of a modified equilibrium equation using a new quantity called the partial stress . Bodies with piece- wise constant horizon can be modeled without ghost forces by using a technique called a splice between the regions. As a limiting case of zero horizon, both partial stress and splice techniques can be used to achieve local-nonlocal coupling. Computational examples, including dynamic fracture in a one-dimensional model with local-nonlocal coupling, illustrate the methods.

  12. Holography beyond the horizon and cosmic censorship

    Levi, Thomas S.; Ross, Simon F.

    2003-01-01

    We investigate the description of the region behind the event horizon in rotating black holes in the AdS conformal field theory correspondence, using the rotating Banados-Teitelboim-Zanelli black hole as a concrete example. We extend a technique introduced by Kraus, Ooguri, and Shenker, based on analytically continuing amplitudes defined in a Euclidean space, to include rotation. In the rotating case, boundary amplitudes again have two different bulk descriptions, involving either integration only over the regions outside the black holes' event horizon, or integration over this region and the region between the event horizon and the Cauchy horizon (inner horizon). We argue that generally, the holographic map will relate the field theory to the region bounded by the Cauchy horizons in spacetime. We also argue that these results suggest that the holographic description of black holes will satisfy strong cosmic censorship

  13. Black hole versus cosmological horizon entropy

    Davis, Tamara M; Davies, P C W; Lineweaver, Charles H

    2003-01-01

    The generalized second law of thermodynamics states that entropy always increases when all event horizons are attributed with an entropy proportional to their area. We test the generalized second law by investigating the change in entropy when dust, radiation and black holes cross a cosmological event horizon. We generalize for flat, open and closed Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universes by using numerical calculations to determine the cosmological horizon evolution. In most cases, the loss of entropy from within the cosmological horizon is more than balanced by an increase in cosmological event horizon entropy, maintaining the validity of the generalized second law of thermodynamics. However, an intriguing set of open universe models shows an apparent entropy decrease when black holes disappear over the cosmological event horizon. We anticipate that this apparent violation of the generalized second law will disappear when solutions are available for black holes embedded in arbitrary backgrounds

  14. Smooth horizons and quantum ripples

    Golovnev, Alexey

    2015-01-01

    Black holes are unique objects which allow for meaningful theoretical studies of strong gravity and even quantum gravity effects. An infalling and a distant observer would have very different views on the structure of the world. However, a careful analysis has shown that it entails no genuine contradictions for physics, and the paradigm of observer complementarity has been coined. Recently this picture was put into doubt. In particular, it was argued that in old black holes a firewall must form in order to protect the basic principles of quantum mechanics. This AMPS paradox has already been discussed in a vast number of papers with different attitudes and conclusions. Here we want to argue that a possible source of confusion is the neglect of quantum gravity effects. Contrary to widespread perception, it does not necessarily mean that effective field theory is inapplicable in rather smooth neighbourhoods of large black hole horizons. The real offender might be an attempt to consistently use it over the huge distances from the near-horizon zone of old black holes to the early radiation. We give simple estimates to support this viewpoint and show how the Page time and (somewhat more speculative) scrambling time do appear. (orig.)

  15. Smooth horizons and quantum ripples

    Golovnev, Alexey [Saint Petersburg State University, High Energy Physics Department, Saint-Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    2015-05-15

    Black holes are unique objects which allow for meaningful theoretical studies of strong gravity and even quantum gravity effects. An infalling and a distant observer would have very different views on the structure of the world. However, a careful analysis has shown that it entails no genuine contradictions for physics, and the paradigm of observer complementarity has been coined. Recently this picture was put into doubt. In particular, it was argued that in old black holes a firewall must form in order to protect the basic principles of quantum mechanics. This AMPS paradox has already been discussed in a vast number of papers with different attitudes and conclusions. Here we want to argue that a possible source of confusion is the neglect of quantum gravity effects. Contrary to widespread perception, it does not necessarily mean that effective field theory is inapplicable in rather smooth neighbourhoods of large black hole horizons. The real offender might be an attempt to consistently use it over the huge distances from the near-horizon zone of old black holes to the early radiation. We give simple estimates to support this viewpoint and show how the Page time and (somewhat more speculative) scrambling time do appear. (orig.)

  16. Robust Approaches to Forecasting

    Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

    2014-01-01

    We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...

  17. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  18. An evaluation of the Canadian global meteorological ensemble prediction system for short-term hydrological forecasting

    F. Anctil

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological forecasting consists in the assessment of future streamflow. Current deterministic forecasts do not give any information concerning the uncertainty, which might be limiting in a decision-making process. Ensemble forecasts are expected to fill this gap.

    In July 2007, the Meteorological Service of Canada has improved its ensemble prediction system, which has been operational since 1998. It uses the GEM model to generate a 20-member ensemble on a 100 km grid, at mid-latitudes. This improved system is used for the first time for hydrological ensemble predictions. Five watersheds in Quebec (Canada are studied: Chaudière, Châteauguay, Du Nord, Kénogami and Du Lièvre. An interesting 17-day rainfall event has been selected in October 2007. Forecasts are produced in a 3 h time step for a 3-day forecast horizon. The deterministic forecast is also available and it is compared with the ensemble ones. In order to correct the bias of the ensemble, an updating procedure has been applied to the output data. Results showed that ensemble forecasts are more skilful than the deterministic ones, as measured by the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS, especially for 72 h forecasts. However, the hydrological ensemble forecasts are under dispersed: a situation that improves with the increasing length of the prediction horizons. We conjecture that this is due in part to the fact that uncertainty in the initial conditions of the hydrological model is not taken into account.

  19. Cartan invariants and event horizon detection

    Brooks, D.; Chavy-Waddy, P. C.; Coley, A. A.; Forget, A.; Gregoris, D.; MacCallum, M. A. H.; McNutt, D. D.

    2018-04-01

    We show that it is possible to locate the event horizon of a black hole (in arbitrary dimensions) by the zeros of certain Cartan invariants. This approach accounts for the recent results on the detection of stationary horizons using scalar polynomial curvature invariants, and improves upon them since the proposed method is computationally less expensive. As an application, we produce Cartan invariants that locate the event horizons for various exact four-dimensional and five-dimensional stationary, asymptotically flat (or (anti) de Sitter), black hole solutions and compare the Cartan invariants with the corresponding scalar curvature invariants that detect the event horizon.

  20. Short time ahead wind power production forecast

    Sapronova, Alla; Meissner, Catherine; Mana, Matteo

    2016-01-01

    An accurate prediction of wind power output is crucial for efficient coordination of cooperative energy production from different sources. Long-time ahead prediction (from 6 to 24 hours) of wind power for onshore parks can be achieved by using a coupled model that would bridge the mesoscale weather prediction data and computational fluid dynamics. When a forecast for shorter time horizon (less than one hour ahead) is anticipated, an accuracy of a predictive model that utilizes hourly weather data is decreasing. That is because the higher frequency fluctuations of the wind speed are lost when data is averaged over an hour. Since the wind speed can vary up to 50% in magnitude over a period of 5 minutes, the higher frequency variations of wind speed and direction have to be taken into account for an accurate short-term ahead energy production forecast. In this work a new model for wind power production forecast 5- to 30-minutes ahead is presented. The model is based on machine learning techniques and categorization approach and using the historical park production time series and hourly numerical weather forecast. (paper)

  1. Short time ahead wind power production forecast

    Sapronova, Alla; Meissner, Catherine; Mana, Matteo

    2016-09-01

    An accurate prediction of wind power output is crucial for efficient coordination of cooperative energy production from different sources. Long-time ahead prediction (from 6 to 24 hours) of wind power for onshore parks can be achieved by using a coupled model that would bridge the mesoscale weather prediction data and computational fluid dynamics. When a forecast for shorter time horizon (less than one hour ahead) is anticipated, an accuracy of a predictive model that utilizes hourly weather data is decreasing. That is because the higher frequency fluctuations of the wind speed are lost when data is averaged over an hour. Since the wind speed can vary up to 50% in magnitude over a period of 5 minutes, the higher frequency variations of wind speed and direction have to be taken into account for an accurate short-term ahead energy production forecast. In this work a new model for wind power production forecast 5- to 30-minutes ahead is presented. The model is based on machine learning techniques and categorization approach and using the historical park production time series and hourly numerical weather forecast.

  2. Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations

    S. W. D. Turner

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Considerable research effort has recently been directed at improving and operationalising ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Whilst this creates new opportunities for improving the performance of water resources systems, there may also be associated risks. Here, we explore these potential risks by examining the sensitivity of forecast value (improvement in system performance brought about by adopting forecasts to changes in the forecast skill for a range of hypothetical reservoir designs with contrasting operating objectives. Forecast-informed operations are simulated using rolling horizon, adaptive control and then benchmarked against optimised control rules to assess performance improvements. Results show that there exists a strong relationship between forecast skill and value for systems operated to maintain a target water level. But this relationship breaks down when the reservoir is operated to satisfy a target demand for water; good forecast accuracy does not necessarily translate into performance improvement. We show that the primary cause of this behaviour is the buffering role played by storage in water supply reservoirs, which renders the forecast superfluous for long periods of the operation. System performance depends primarily on forecast accuracy when critical decisions are made – namely during severe drought. As it is not possible to know in advance if a forecast will perform well at such moments, we advocate measuring the consistency of forecast performance, through bootstrap resampling, to indicate potential usefulness in storage operations. Our results highlight the need for sensitivity assessment in value-of-forecast studies involving reservoirs with supply objectives.

  3. Out-of-sample Forecasting Performance of Won/Dollar Exchange Rate Return Volatility Model

    Hojin Lee

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of volatility models using daily exchange rate for the KRW/USD during the period from 1992 to 2008. For various forecasting horizons, historical volatility models with a long memory tend to make more accurate forecasts. Especially, we carefully observe the difference between the EWMA and the GARCH(1,1 model. Our empirical finding that the GARCH model puts too much weight on recent observations relative to those in the past is consistent with prior evidence showing that asset market volatility has a long memory, such as Ding and Granger (1996. The forecasting model with the lowest MSFE and VaR forecast error among the models we consider is the EWMA model in which the forecast volatility for the coming period is a weighted average of recent squared return with exponentially declining weights. In terms of forecast accuracy, it clearly dominates the widely accepted GARCH and rolling window GARCH models. We also present a multiple comparison of the out-of-sample forecasting performance of volatility using the stationary bootstrap of Politis and Romano (1994. We find that the White's reality check for the GARCH(1,1 expanding window model and the FIGARCH(1,1 expanding window model clearly reject the null hypothesis and there exists a better model than the two benchmark models. On the other hand, when the EWMA model is the benchmark, the White's for all forecasting horizons are very high, which indicates the null hypothesis may not be rejected. The Hansen's report the same results. The GARCH(1,1 expanding window model and the FIGARCH(1,1 expanding window model are dominated by the best competing model in most of the forecasting horizons. In contrast, the RiskMetrics model seems to be the most preferred. We also consider combining the forecasts generated by averaging the six raw forecasts and a trimmed set of forecasts which calculate the mean of the four forecasts after disregarding the highest and

  4. Forecasting daily patient volumes in the emergency department.

    Jones, Spencer S; Thomas, Alun; Evans, R Scott; Welch, Shari J; Haug, Peter J; Snow, Gregory L

    2008-02-01

    Shifts in the supply of and demand for emergency department (ED) resources make the efficient allocation of ED resources increasingly important. Forecasting is a vital activity that guides decision-making in many areas of economic, industrial, and scientific planning, but has gained little traction in the health care industry. There are few studies that explore the use of forecasting methods to predict patient volumes in the ED. The goals of this study are to explore and evaluate the use of several statistical forecasting methods to predict daily ED patient volumes at three diverse hospital EDs and to compare the accuracy of these methods to the accuracy of a previously proposed forecasting method. Daily patient arrivals at three hospital EDs were collected for the period January 1, 2005, through March 31, 2007. The authors evaluated the use of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, time series regression, exponential smoothing, and artificial neural network models to forecast daily patient volumes at each facility. Forecasts were made for horizons ranging from 1 to 30 days in advance. The forecast accuracy achieved by the various forecasting methods was compared to the forecast accuracy achieved when using a benchmark forecasting method already available in the emergency medicine literature. All time series methods considered in this analysis provided improved in-sample model goodness of fit. However, post-sample analysis revealed that time series regression models that augment linear regression models by accounting for serial autocorrelation offered only small improvements in terms of post-sample forecast accuracy, relative to multiple linear regression models, while seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, exponential smoothing, and artificial neural network forecasting models did not provide consistently accurate forecasts of daily ED volumes. This study confirms the widely held belief that daily demand for ED services is characterized by

  5. Spatial electric load forecasting

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  6. Optical geometry across the horizon

    Jonsson, Rickard

    2006-01-01

    In a recent paper (Jonsson and Westman 2006 Class. Quantum Grav. 23 61), a generalization of optical geometry, assuming a non-shearing reference congruence, is discussed. Here we illustrate that this formalism can be applied to (a finite four-volume) of any spherically symmetric spacetime. In particular we apply the formalism, using a non-static reference congruence, to do optical geometry across the horizon of a static black hole. While the resulting geometry in principle is time dependent, we can choose the reference congruence in such a manner that an embedding of the geometry always looks the same. Relative to the embedded geometry the reference points are then moving. We discuss the motion of photons, inertial forces and gyroscope precession in this framework

  7. Novel birefringence interrogation for Sagnac loop interferometer sensor with unlimited linear measurement range.

    He, Haijun; Shao, Liyang; Qian, Heng; Zhang, Xinpu; Liang, Jiawei; Luo, Bin; Pan, Wei; Yan, Lianshan

    2017-03-20

    A novel demodulation method for Sagnac loop interferometer based sensor has been proposed and demonstrated, by unwrapping the phase changes with birefringence interrogation. A temperature sensor based on Sagnac loop interferometer has been used to verify the feasibility of the proposed method. Several tests with 40 °C temperature range have been accomplished with a great linearity of 0.9996 in full range. The proposed scheme is universal for all Sagnac loop interferometer based sensors and it has unlimited linear measurable range which overwhelming the conventional demodulation method with peak/dip tracing. Furthermore, the influence of the wavelength sampling interval and wavelength span on the demodulation error has been discussed in this work. The proposed interrogation method has a great significance for Sagnac loop interferometer sensor and it might greatly enhance the availability of this type of sensors in practical application.

  8. Performance of artificially defected LWR fuel rods in an unlimited air dry storage atmosphere

    Einziger, R.E.; Knecht, R.L.; Cantley, D.A.; Cook, J.A.

    1983-09-01

    Thus far the tests are inconclusive as to whether breached LWR fuel can be stored at 230 0 C for long periods of time in air without fuel oxidation and dispersion. There is every indication, as expected, that there is no oxidation problem in an inert atmosphere. Only one of four defects exposed to unlimited air gave any indication of fuel oxidation. It has been suggested that this might be an incubation effect and continued operation would result in oxidation occurring at all four defects. As yet the destructive examination of the BWR rod has not been completed, so it is not possible to determine if cladding splitting was due to an anomoly in this test rod or something that can be expected in LWR rods in general. Thus far there is no indication of respirable particle dispersal even if fuel oxidation does occur

  9. A Novel Variable Stiffness Mechanism Capable of an Infinite Stiffness Range and Unlimited Decoupled Output Motion

    Stefan Groothuis

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a novel variable stiffness mechanism is presented, which is capable of achieving an output stiffness with infinite range and an unlimited output motion, i.e., the mechanism output is completely decoupled from the rotor motion, in the zero stiffness configuration. The mechanism makes use of leaf springs, which are engaged at different positions by means of two movable supports, to realize the variable output stiffness. The Euler–Bernoulli leaf spring model is derived and validated through experimental data. By shaping the leaf springs, it is shown that the stiffness characteristic of the mechanism can be changed to fulfill different application requirements. Alternative designs can achieve the same behavior with only one leaf spring and one movable support pin.

  10. Short term solar radiation forecasting: Island versus continental sites

    Boland, John; David, Mathieu; Lauret, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    Due its intermittency, the large-scale integration of solar energy into electricity grids is an issue and more specifically in an insular context. Thus, forecasting the output of solar energy is a key feature to efficiently manage the supply-demand balance. In this paper, three short term forecasting procedures are applied to island locations in order to see how they perform in situations that are potentially more volatile than continental locations. Two continental locations, one coastal and one inland are chosen for comparison. At the two time scales studied, ten minute and hourly, the island locations prove to be more difficult to forecast, as shown by larger forecast errors. It is found that the three methods, one purely statistical combining Fourier series plus linear ARMA models, one combining clear sky index models plus neural net models, and a third using a clear sky index plus ARMA, give similar forecasting results. It is also suggested that there is great potential of merging modelling approaches on different horizons. - Highlights: • Solar energy forecasting is more difficult for insular than continental sites. • Fourier series plus linear ARMA models are one forecasting method tested. • Clear sky index models plus neural net models are also tested. • Clear sky index models plus linear ARMA is also an option. • All three approaches have similar skill.

  11. Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

    Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

  12. Competition, Time Horizon and Corporate Social Performance

    Graafland, J.J.; Smid, H.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract: This paper develops and tests a conceptual framework on the relationships between competition, time horizon and corporate social performance (CSP). We hypothesize that more intense competition discourages CSP by lowering the time horizon of companies. We test the hypothesis on a sample of

  13. The NMC Horizon Report: 2015 Museum Edition

    Johnson, L.; Adams Becker, S.; Estrada, V.; Freeman, A.

    2015-01-01

    The internationally recognized series of "Horizon Reports" is part of the New Media Consortium's Horizon Project, a comprehensive research venture established in 2002 that identifies and describes emerging technologies likely to have a large impact over the coming years on a variety of sectors around the globe. This "2015 Horizon…

  14. Maximal indecomposable past sets and event horizons

    Krolak, A.

    1984-01-01

    The existence of maximal indecomposable past sets MIPs is demonstrated using the Kuratowski-Zorn lemma. A criterion for the existence of an absolute event horizon in space-time is given in terms of MIPs and a relation to black hole event horizon is shown. (author)

  15. Short-term Wind Forecasting to Support Virtual Power Player Operation

    Ramos, Sérgio; Soares, João; Pinto, Tiago; Vale, Zita

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a wind speed forecasting model that contributes to the development and implementation of adequate methodologies for Energy Resource Man-agement in a distribution power network, with intensive use of wind based power generation. The proposed fore-casting methodology aims to support the operation in the scope of the intraday resources scheduling model, name-ly with a time horizon of 10 minutes. A case study using a real database from the meteoro-logical station installed ...

  16. Against all odds -- Probabilistic forecasts and decision making

    Liechti, Katharina; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In the city of Zurich (Switzerland) the setting is such that the damage potential due to flooding of the river Sihl is estimated to about 5 billion US dollars. The flood forecasting system that is used by the administration for decision making runs continuously since 2007. It has a time horizon of max. five days and operates at hourly time steps. The flood forecasting system includes three different model chains. Two of those are run by the deterministic NWP models COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 and one is driven by the probabilistic NWP COSMO-Leps. The model chains are consistent since February 2010, so five full years are available for the evaluation for the system. The system was evaluated continuously and is a very nice example to present the added value that lies in probabilistic forecasts. The forecasts are available on an online-platform to the decision makers. Several graphical representations of the forecasts and forecast-history are available to support decision making and to rate the current situation. The communication between forecasters and decision-makers is quite close. To put it short, an ideal situation. However, an event or better put a non-event in summer 2014 showed that the knowledge about the general superiority of probabilistic forecasts doesn't necessarily mean that the decisions taken in a specific situation will be based on that probabilistic forecast. Some years of experience allow gaining confidence in the system, both for the forecasters and for the decision-makers. Even if from the theoretical point of view the handling during crisis situation is well designed, a first event demonstrated that the dialog with the decision-makers still lacks of exercise during such situations. We argue, that a false alarm is a needed experience to consolidate real-time emergency procedures relying on ensemble predictions. A missed event would probably also fit, but, in our case, we are very happy not to report about this option.

  17. Introduction of unlimited liability into the atomic law with special regard to the international nuclear liability conventions

    Hohlefelder, W.

    1984-01-01

    The paper was read at the international symposium on nuclear liability held in Munich in September 1984 by OECD/NEA and IAEA. It outlines the basic principles of the Paris liability convention and the international development. The author pleads in favour of unlimited liability for hazards on grounds of history, legal policy, legal dogmatics and practice. Moreover he thinks it useful and appropriate because it also improves the protection of the citizens. The same as the federal government the author holds that unlimited liability for hazards is compatible with the maximum damages and the congruity regulations of the Paris and Brussels liability convention. An amendment to the liability convention, though not necessary, would be desirable to make clear that both options - limited and unlimited liability - are open. (HSCH) [de

  18. Forecasting monthly peak demand of electricity in India—A critique

    Rallapalli, Srinivasa Rao; Ghosh, Sajal

    2012-01-01

    The nature of electricity differs from that of other commodities since electricity is a non-storable good and there have been significant seasonal and diurnal variations of demand. Under such condition, precise forecasting of demand for electricity should be an integral part of the planning process as this enables the policy makers to provide directions on cost-effective investment and on scheduling the operation of the existing and new power plants so that the supply of electricity can be made adequate enough to meet the future demand and its variations. Official load forecasting in India done by Central Electricity Authority (CEA) is often criticized for being overestimated due to inferior techniques used for forecasting. This paper tries to evaluate monthly peak demand forecasting performance predicted by CEA using trend method and compare it with those predicted by Multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (MSARIMA) model. It has been found that MSARIMA model outperforms CEA forecasts both in-sample static and out-of-sample dynamic forecast horizons in all five regional grids in India. For better load management and grid discipline, this study suggests employing sophisticated techniques like MSARIMA for peak load forecasting in India. - Highlights: ► This paper evaluates monthly peak demand forecasting performance by CEA. ► Compares CEA forecasts it with those predicted by MSARIMA model. ► MSARIMA model outperforms CEA forecasts in all five regional grids in India. ► Opportunity exists to improve the performance of CEA forecasts.

  19. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  20. FORECASTING MODELS IN MANAGEMENT

    Sindelar, Jiri

    2008-01-01

    This article deals with the problems of forecasting models. First part of the article is dedicated to definition of the relevant areas (vertical and horizontal pillar of definition) and then the forecasting model itself is defined; as article presents theoretical background for further primary research, this definition is crucial. Finally the position of forecasting models within the management system is identified. The paper is a part of the outputs of FEM CULS grant no. 1312/11/3121.

  1. Forecasting in Planning

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

  2. The strategy of professional forecasting

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  3. Symmetries of cosmological Cauchy horizons

    Moncrief, V.; Isenberg, J.

    1983-01-01

    We consider analytic vacuum and electrovacuum spacetimes which contain a compact null hypersurface ruled by closed null generators. We prove that each such spacetime has a non-trivial Killing symmetry. We distinguish two classes of null surfaces, degenerate and non-degenerate ones, characterized by the zero or non-zero value of a constant analogous to the ''surface gravity'' of stationary black holes. We show that the non-degenerate null surfaces are always Cauchy heizons across which the Killing fields change from spacelike (in the globally hyperbolic regions) to timelike (in the acausal, analytic extensions). For the special case of a null surface diffeomorphic to T 3 we characterize the degenerate vacuum solutions completely. These consists of an infinite dimensional family of ''plane wave'' spacetimes which are entirely foliated by compact null surfaces. Previous work by one of us has shown that, when one dimensional Killing symmetries are allowed, then infinite dimensional families of non-degenerate, vacuum solutions exist. We recall these results for the case of Cauchy horizons diffeomorphic to T 3 and prove the generality of the previously constructed non-degenerate solutions. We briefly discuss the possibility of removing the assumptions of closed generators and analyticity and proving an appropriate generalization of our main results. Such a generalization would provide strong support for the cosmic censorship conjecture by showing that causality violating, cosmological solutions of Einstein's equations are essentially an artefact of symmetry. (orig.)

  4. Wind power forecasting accuracy and uncertainty in Finland

    Holttinen, H.; Miettinen, J.; Sillanpaeae, S.

    2013-04-15

    forecasts for short horizons like the following hour, more advanced combining techniques than simple average, such as Kalmar filtering or recursive least squares provided better results. Two different uncertainty quantification methods, based on empirical cumulative density function and kernel densities, were analysed for 3 sites. Aggregation of wind power production will not only decrease relative prediction errors, but also decreases the variation and uncertainty of prediction errors. (orig.)

  5. Dynamical symmetry enhancement near IIA horizons

    Gran, University; Gutowski, J.; Kayani, University; Papadopoulos, G.

    2015-01-01

    We show that smooth type IIA Killing horizons with compact spatial sections preserve an even number of supersymmetries, and that the symmetry algebra of horizons with non-trivial fluxes includes an sl(2,ℝ) subalgebra. This confirms the conjecture of http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/JHEP11(2013)104 for type IIA horizons. As an intermediate step in the proof, we also demonstrate new Lichnerowicz type theorems for spin bundle connections whose holonomy is contained in a general linear group.

  6. Across-horizon scattering and information transfer

    Emelyanov, V. A.; Klinkhamer, F. R.

    2018-06-01

    We address the question whether or not two electrically charged elementary particles can Coulomb scatter if one of these particles is inside the Schwarzschild black-hole horizon and the other outside. It can be shown that the quantum process is consistent with the local energy–momentum conservation law. This result implies that across-horizon scattering is a physical effect, relevant to astrophysical black holes. We propose a Gedankenexperiment which uses the quantum scattering process to transfer information from inside the black-hole horizon to outside.

  7. Horizon quantum mechanics of rotating black holes

    Casadio, Roberto [Universita di Bologna, Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Bologna (Italy); I.N.F.N., Sezione di Bologna, I.S. FLAG, Bologna (Italy); Giugno, Andrea [Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet, Arnold Sommerfeld Center, Munich (Germany); Giusti, Andrea [Universita di Bologna, Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Bologna (Italy); I.N.F.N., Sezione di Bologna, I.S. FLAG, Bologna (Italy); Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet, Arnold Sommerfeld Center, Munich (Germany); Micu, Octavian [Institute of Space Science, Bucharest, P.O. Box MG-23, Bucharest-Magurele (Romania)

    2017-05-15

    The horizon quantum mechanics is an approach that was previously introduced in order to analyze the gravitational radius of spherically symmetric systems and compute the probability that a given quantum state is a black hole. In this work, we first extend the formalism to general space-times with asymptotic (ADM) mass and angular momentum. We then apply the extended horizon quantum mechanics to a harmonic model of rotating corpuscular black holes. We find that simple configurations of this model naturally suppress the appearance of the inner horizon and seem to disfavor extremal (macroscopic) geometries. (orig.)

  8. Black hole entropy, universality, and horizon constraints

    Carlip, Steven

    2006-01-01

    To ask a question about a black hole in quantum gravity, one must restrict initial or boundary data to ensure that a black hole is actually present. For two-dimensional dilaton gravity, and probably a much wider class of theories, I show that the imposition of a 'stretched horizon' constraint modifies the algebra of symmetries at the horizon, allowing the use of conformal field theory techniques to determine the asymptotic density of states. The result reproduces the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy without any need for detailed assumptions about the microscopic theory. Horizon symmetries may thus offer an answer to the problem of universality of black hole entropy

  9. Black hole entropy, universality, and horizon constraints

    Carlip, Steven [Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States)

    2006-03-01

    To ask a question about a black hole in quantum gravity, one must restrict initial or boundary data to ensure that a black hole is actually present. For two-dimensional dilaton gravity, and probably a much wider class of theories, I show that the imposition of a 'stretched horizon' constraint modifies the algebra of symmetries at the horizon, allowing the use of conformal field theory techniques to determine the asymptotic density of states. The result reproduces the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy without any need for detailed assumptions about the microscopic theory. Horizon symmetries may thus offer an answer to the problem of universality of black hole entropy.

  10. Tropospheric radiowave propagation beyond the horizon

    Du Castel, François

    1966-01-01

    Tropospheric Radiowave Propagation Beyond the Horizon deals with developments concerning the tropospheric propagation of ultra-short radio waves beyond the horizon, with emphasis on the relationship between the theoretical and the experimental. Topics covered include the general conditions of propagation in the troposphere; general characteristics of propagation beyond the horizon; and attenuation in propagation. This volume is comprised of six chapters and begins with a brief historical look at the various stages that have brought the technique of transhorizon links to its state of developmen

  11. Stretched horizons, quasiparticles, and quasinormal modes

    Iizuka, Norihiro; Kabat, Daniel; Lifschytz, Gilad; Lowe, David A.

    2003-01-01

    We propose that stretched horizons can be described in terms of a gas of noninteracting quasiparticles. The quasiparticles are unstable, with a lifetime set by the imaginary part of the lowest quasinormal mode frequency. If the horizon arises from an AdS-CFT style duality the quasiparticles are also the effective low-energy degrees of freedom of the finite-temperature CFT. We analyze a large class of models including Schwarzschild black holes, nonextremal Dp-branes, the rotating BTZ black hole and de Sitter space, and we comment on degenerate horizons. The quasiparticle description makes manifest the relationship between entropy and area

  12. Implementing VMware Horizon View 5.2

    Ventresco, Jason

    2013-01-01

    A step-by-step tutorial covering all components of the View Horizon suite in detail, to ensure that you can utilize all features of the platform, and discover all of the possible ways that it can be used within your own environment.If you are a newcomer in system administration, and you wish to implement a small to midsized Horizon View environment, then this book is for you. It will also benefit individuals who wish to administrate and manage Horizon View more efficiently or are studying for the VCP5-DT.

  13. An overview of wind power forecast types and their use in large-scale integration of wind power

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov [ENFOR A/S, Horslholm (Denmark); Madsen, Henrik [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark). Informatics and Mathematical Modelling

    2011-07-01

    Wind power forecast characteristics are described and it is shown how analyses of actual decision problems can be used to derive the forecast characteristics important in a given situation. Generally, characteristics related to resolution in space and time, together with the required maximal forecast horizon are easily identified. However, identification of forecast characteristics required for optimal decision support requires a more thorough investigation, which is illustrated by examples. Generally, quantile forecasts of the future wind power production are required, but the transformation of a quantile forecast into an actual decisions is highly dependent on the precise formulation of the decision problem. Furthermore, when consequences of neighbouring time steps interact, quantile forecasts are not sufficient. It is argued that a general solution in such cases is to base the decision on reliable scenarios of the future wind power production. (orig.)

  14. Statistical and Machine Learning forecasting methods: Concerns and ways forward.

    Makridakis, Spyros; Spiliotis, Evangelos; Assimakopoulos, Vassilios

    2018-01-01

    Machine Learning (ML) methods have been proposed in the academic literature as alternatives to statistical ones for time series forecasting. Yet, scant evidence is available about their relative performance in terms of accuracy and computational requirements. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate such performance across multiple forecasting horizons using a large subset of 1045 monthly time series used in the M3 Competition. After comparing the post-sample accuracy of popular ML methods with that of eight traditional statistical ones, we found that the former are dominated across both accuracy measures used and for all forecasting horizons examined. Moreover, we observed that their computational requirements are considerably greater than those of statistical methods. The paper discusses the results, explains why the accuracy of ML models is below that of statistical ones and proposes some possible ways forward. The empirical results found in our research stress the need for objective and unbiased ways to test the performance of forecasting methods that can be achieved through sizable and open competitions allowing meaningful comparisons and definite conclusions.

  15. Statistical and Machine Learning forecasting methods: Concerns and ways forward

    Makridakis, Spyros; Assimakopoulos, Vassilios

    2018-01-01

    Machine Learning (ML) methods have been proposed in the academic literature as alternatives to statistical ones for time series forecasting. Yet, scant evidence is available about their relative performance in terms of accuracy and computational requirements. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate such performance across multiple forecasting horizons using a large subset of 1045 monthly time series used in the M3 Competition. After comparing the post-sample accuracy of popular ML methods with that of eight traditional statistical ones, we found that the former are dominated across both accuracy measures used and for all forecasting horizons examined. Moreover, we observed that their computational requirements are considerably greater than those of statistical methods. The paper discusses the results, explains why the accuracy of ML models is below that of statistical ones and proposes some possible ways forward. The empirical results found in our research stress the need for objective and unbiased ways to test the performance of forecasting methods that can be achieved through sizable and open competitions allowing meaningful comparisons and definite conclusions. PMID:29584784

  16. Advancing solar energy forecasting through the underlying physics

    Yang, H.; Ghonima, M. S.; Zhong, X.; Ozge, B.; Kurtz, B.; Wu, E.; Mejia, F. A.; Zamora, M.; Wang, G.; Clemesha, R.; Norris, J. R.; Heus, T.; Kleissl, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    As solar power comprises an increasingly large portion of the energy generation mix, the ability to accurately forecast solar photovoltaic generation becomes increasingly important. Due to the variability of solar power caused by cloud cover, knowledge of both the magnitude and timing of expected solar power production ahead of time facilitates the integration of solar power onto the electric grid by reducing electricity generation from traditional ancillary generators such as gas and oil power plants, as well as decreasing the ramping of all generators, reducing start and shutdown costs, and minimizing solar power curtailment, thereby providing annual economic value. The time scales involved in both the energy markets and solar variability range from intra-hour to several days ahead. This wide range of time horizons led to the development of a multitude of techniques, with each offering unique advantages in specific applications. For example, sky imagery provides site-specific forecasts on the minute-scale. Statistical techniques including machine learning algorithms are commonly used in the intra-day forecast horizon for regional applications, while numerical weather prediction models can provide mesoscale forecasts on both the intra-day and days-ahead time scale. This talk will provide an overview of the challenges unique to each technique and highlight the advances in their ongoing development which come alongside advances in the fundamental physics underneath.

  17. Essays on forecasting stationary and nonstationary economic time series

    Bachmeier, Lance Joseph

    This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II considers the question of whether M2 growth can be used to forecast inflation at horizons of up to ten years. A vector error correction (VEC) model serves as our benchmark model. We find that M2 growth does have marginal predictive content for inflation at horizons of more than two years, but only when allowing for cointegration and when the cointegrating rank and vector are specified a priori. When estimating the cointegration vector or failing to impose cointegration, there is no longer evidence of causality running from M2 growth to inflation at any forecast horizon. Finally, we present evidence that M2 needs to be redefined, as forecasts of the VEC model using data on M2 observed after 1993 are worse than the forecasts of an autoregressive model of inflation. Chapter III reconsiders the evidence for a "rockets and feathers" effect in gasoline markets. We estimate an error correction model of gasoline prices using daily data for the period 1985--1998 and fail to find any evidence of asymmetry. We show that previous work suffered from two problems. First, nonstationarity in some of the regressors was ignored, leading to invalid inference. Second, the weekly data used in previous work leads to a temporal aggregation problem, and thus biased estimates of impulse response functions. Chapter IV tests for a forecasting relationship between the volume of litigation and macroeconomic variables. We analyze annual data for the period 1960--2000 on the number of cases filed, real GDP, real consumption expenditures, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. Bivariate Granger causality tests show that several of the macroeconomic variables can be used to forecast the volume of litigation, but show no evidence that the volume of litigation can be used to forecast any of the macroeconomic variables. The analysis is then extended to bivariate and multivariate regression models, and we find similar evidence to that of the

  18. Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics?

    Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.

    2017-01-01

    Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist

  19. Wind Resource Assessment and Forecast Planning with Neural Networks

    Nicolus K. Rotich

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we built three types of artificial neural networks, namely: Feed forward networks, Elman networks and Cascade forward networks, for forecasting wind speeds and directions. A similar network topology was used for all the forecast horizons, regardless of the model type. All the models were then trained with real data of collected wind speeds and directions over a period of two years in the municipal of Puumala, Finland. Up to 70th percentile of the data was used for training, validation and testing, while 71–85th percentile was presented to the trained models for validation. The model outputs were then compared to the last 15% of the original data, by measuring the statistical errors between them. The feed forward networks returned the lowest errors for wind speeds. Cascade forward networks gave the lowest errors for wind directions; Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for short term forecasting.

  20. Analysis and forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania

    Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio [Dipartimento di Ingegneria Aerospaziale e Meccanica, Seconda Universita degli Studi di Napoli, Via Roma 29, 81031 Aversa (CE) (Italy); Minea, Alina A. [Faculty of Materials Science and Engineering, Technical University Gh. Asachi from Iasi, Bd. D. Mangeron, No. 59, Iasi (Romania)

    2010-11-15

    Electricity consumption forecast has fundamental importance in the energy planning of a country. In this paper, we present an analysis and two forecast models for nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania. A first part of the paper is dedicated to the estimation of GDP and price elasticities of consumption. Nonresidential short run GDP and price elasticities are found to be approximately 0.136 and -0.0752, respectively, whereas long run GDP and price elasticities are equal to 0.496 and -0.274 respectively. The second part of the study is dedicated to the forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption up to year 2020. A Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method and a trigonometric grey model with rolling mechanism (TGMRM) are employed for the consumption prediction. The two models lead to similar results, with an average deviation less than 5%. This deviation is to be considered acceptable in relation to the time horizon considered in the present study. (author)

  1. Two quantitative forecasting methods for macroeconomic indicators in Czech Republic

    Mihaela BRATU (SIMIONESCU

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Econometric modelling and exponential smoothing techniques are two quantitative forecasting methods with good results in practice, but the objective of the research was to find out which of the two techniques are better for short run predictions. Therefore, for inflation, unemployment and interest rate in Czech Republic some accuracy indicators were calculated for the predictions based on these methods. Short run forecasts on a horizon of 3 months were made for December 2011-February 2012, the econometric models being updated. For Czech Republic, the exponential smoothing techniques provided more accurate forecasts than the econometric models (VAR(2 models, ARMA procedure and models with lagged variables. One explication for the better performance of smoothing techniques would be that in the chosen countries the short run predictions more influenced by the recent evolution of the indicators.

  2. Analysis and forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania

    Bianco, Vincenzo; Manca, Oronzio; Nardini, Sergio; Minea, Alina A.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity consumption forecast has fundamental importance in the energy planning of a country. In this paper, we present an analysis and two forecast models for nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania. A first part of the paper is dedicated to the estimation of GDP and price elasticities of consumption. Nonresidential short run GDP and price elasticities are found to be approximately 0.136 and -0.0752, respectively, whereas long run GDP and price elasticities are equal to 0.496 and -0.274 respectively. The second part of the study is dedicated to the forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption up to year 2020. A Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method and a trigonometric grey model with rolling mechanism (TGMRM) are employed for the consumption prediction. The two models lead to similar results, with an average deviation less than 5%. This deviation is to be considered acceptable in relation to the time horizon considered in the present study. (author)

  3. Initial results with time series forecasting of TJ-II heliac waveforms

    Farias, G.; Dormido-Canto, S.; Vega, J.; Díaz, N.

    2015-01-01

    This article discusses about how to apply forecasting techniques to predict future samples of plasma signals during a discharge. One application of the forecasting could be to detect in real time anomalous behaviors in fusion waveforms. The work describes the implementation of three prediction techniques; two of them based on machine learning methods such as artificial neural networks and support vector machines for regression. The results have shown that depending on the temporal horizon, the predictions match the real samples in most cases with an error less than 5%, even more the forecasting of five samples ahead can reach accuracy over 90% in most signals analyzed.

  4. En Garde: Fencing at Kansas City's Central Computers Unlimited/Classical Greek Magnet High School, 1991-1995

    Poos, Bradley W.

    2015-01-01

    Central High School in Kansas City, Missouri is one of the oldest schools west of the Mississippi and the first public high school built in Kansas City. Kansas City's magnet plan resulted in Central High School being rebuilt as the Central Computers Unlimited/Classical Greek Magnet High School, a school that was designed to offer students an…

  5. 26 CFR 1.642(c)-3 - Adjustments and other special rules for determining unlimited charitable contributions deduction.

    2010-04-01

    ... the gross income of the estate for 1972, and N University receives $100,000 from the estate in such... INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES... unlimited charitable contributions deduction. (a) Income in respect of a decedent. For purposes of §§ 1.642...

  6. First interim examination of defected BWR and PWR rods tested in unlimited air at 2290C

    Einziger, R.E.; Cook, J.A.

    1983-01-01

    A five-year whole rod test was initiated to investigate the long-term stability of spent fuel rods under a variety of possible dry storage conditions. Both PWR and BWR rods were included in the test. The first interim examination was conducted after three months of testing to determine if there was any degradation in those defected rods stored in an unlimited air atmosphere. Visual observations, diametral measurements and radiographic smears were used to assess the degree of cladding deformation and particulate dispersal. The PWR rod showed no measurable change from the pre-test condition. The two original artificial defects had not changed in appearance and there was no diametral growth of the cladding. One of the defects in BWR rod showed significant deformation. There was approximately 10% cladding strain at the defect site and a small axial crack had formed. The fuel in the defect did not appear to be friable. The second defect showed no visible change and no cladding strain. Following examination, the test was continued at 230 0 C. Another interim examination is planned during the summer of 1983. This paper discusses the details and meaning of the data from the first interim examination

  7. Unlimited cooling capacity of the passive-type emergency core cooling system of the MARS reactor

    Bandini, G.; Caira, M.; Naviglio, A.; Sorabella, L.

    1995-01-01

    The MARS nuclear plant is equipped with a 600 MWth PWR type nuclear steam supply system, with completely innovative engineered core safeguards. The most relevant innovative safety system of this plant is its Emergency Core Cooling System, which is completely passive (with only one non static component). The Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) of the MARS reactor is natural-circulation, passive-type, and its intervention follows a core flow decrease, whatever was the cause. The operation of the system is based on a cascade of three fluid systems, functionally interfacing through heat exchangers; the first fluid system is connected to the reactor vessel and the last one includes an atmospheric-pressure condenser, cooled by external air. The infinite thermal capacity of the final heat sink provides the system an unlimited autonomy. The capability and operability of the system are based on its integrity and on the integrity of the primary coolant boundary (both of them are permanently enclosed in a pressurized containment; 100% redundancy is also foreseen) and on the operation of only one non static component (a check valve), with 400% redundancy. In the paper, all main thermal hydraulic transients occurring as a consequence of postulated accidents are analysed, to verify the capability of the passive-type ECCS to intervene always in time, without causing undue conditions of reduced coolability of the core (DNB, etc.), and to verify its capability to guarantee a long-term (indefinite) coolability of the core without the need of any external intervention. (author)

  8. Evidence for unlimited capacity processing of simple features in visual cortex.

    White, Alex L; Runeson, Erik; Palmer, John; Ernst, Zachary R; Boynton, Geoffrey M

    2017-06-01

    Performance in many visual tasks is impaired when observers attempt to divide spatial attention across multiple visual field locations. Correspondingly, neuronal response magnitudes in visual cortex are often reduced during divided compared with focused spatial attention. This suggests that early visual cortex is the site of capacity limits, where finite processing resources must be divided among attended stimuli. However, behavioral research demonstrates that not all visual tasks suffer such capacity limits: The costs of divided attention are minimal when the task and stimulus are simple, such as when searching for a target defined by orientation or contrast. To date, however, every neuroimaging study of divided attention has used more complex tasks and found large reductions in response magnitude. We bridged that gap by using functional magnetic resonance imaging to measure responses in the human visual cortex during simple feature detection. The first experiment used a visual search task: Observers detected a low-contrast Gabor patch within one or four potentially relevant locations. The second experiment used a dual-task design, in which observers made independent judgments of Gabor presence in patches of dynamic noise at two locations. In both experiments, blood-oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signals in the retinotopic cortex were significantly lower for ignored than attended stimuli. However, when observers divided attention between multiple stimuli, BOLD signals were not reliably reduced and behavioral performance was unimpaired. These results suggest that processing of simple features in early visual cortex has unlimited capacity.

  9. Fabrication of Pt nanowires with a diffraction-unlimited feature size by high-threshold lithography

    Li, Li; Zhang, Ziang; Yu, Miao; Song, Zhengxun; Weng, Zhankun; Wang, Zuobin; Li, Wenjun; Wang, Dapeng; Zhao, Le; Peng, Kuiqing

    2015-01-01

    Although the nanoscale world can already be observed at a diffraction-unlimited resolution using far-field optical microscopy, to make the step from microscopy to lithography still requires a suitable photoresist material system. In this letter, we consider the threshold to be a region with a width characterized by the extreme feature size obtained using a Gaussian beam spot. By narrowing such a region through improvement of the threshold sensitization to intensity in a high-threshold material system, the minimal feature size becomes smaller. By using platinum as the negative photoresist, we demonstrate that high-threshold lithography can be used to fabricate nanowire arrays with a scalable resolution along the axial direction of the linewidth from the micro- to the nanoscale using a nanosecond-pulsed laser source with a wavelength λ 0  = 1064 nm. The minimal feature size is only several nanometers (sub λ 0 /100). Compared with conventional polymer resist lithography, the advantages of high-threshold lithography are sharper pinpoints of laser intensity triggering the threshold response and also higher robustness allowing for large area exposure by a less-expensive nanosecond-pulsed laser

  10. Forecasting non-stationary diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria time-series in Niono, Mali.

    Medina, Daniel C; Findley, Sally E; Guindo, Boubacar; Doumbia, Seydou

    2007-11-21

    Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods. In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%. The multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions

  11. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  12. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  13. Horizon Entropy from Quantum Gravity Condensates.

    Oriti, Daniele; Pranzetti, Daniele; Sindoni, Lorenzo

    2016-05-27

    We construct condensate states encoding the continuum spherically symmetric quantum geometry of a horizon in full quantum gravity, i.e., without any classical symmetry reduction, in the group field theory formalism. Tracing over the bulk degrees of freedom, we show how the resulting reduced density matrix manifestly exhibits a holographic behavior. We derive a complete orthonormal basis of eigenstates for the reduced density matrix of the horizon and use it to compute the horizon entanglement entropy. By imposing consistency with the horizon boundary conditions and semiclassical thermodynamical properties, we recover the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy formula for any value of the Immirzi parameter. Our analysis supports the equivalence between the von Neumann (entanglement) entropy interpretation and the Boltzmann (statistical) one.

  14. Nonlinear optics of fibre event horizons.

    Webb, Karen E; Erkintalo, Miro; Xu, Yiqing; Broderick, Neil G R; Dudley, John M; Genty, Goëry; Murdoch, Stuart G

    2014-09-17

    The nonlinear interaction of light in an optical fibre can mimic the physics at an event horizon. This analogue arises when a weak probe wave is unable to pass through an intense soliton, despite propagating at a different velocity. To date, these dynamics have been described in the time domain in terms of a soliton-induced refractive index barrier that modifies the velocity of the probe. Here we complete the physical description of fibre-optic event horizons by presenting a full frequency-domain description in terms of cascaded four-wave mixing between discrete single-frequency fields, and experimentally demonstrate signature frequency shifts using continuous wave lasers. Our description is confirmed by the remarkable agreement with experiments performed in the continuum limit, reached using ultrafast lasers. We anticipate that clarifying the description of fibre event horizons will significantly impact on the description of horizon dynamics and soliton interactions in photonics and other systems.

  15. Deepwater Horizon Seafood Safety Oracle Database (2010)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In 2010, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill occurred in the Gulf of Mexico. In response to this spill, the National Marine Fisheries Service initiated a data collection...

  16. Deep Water Horizon (HB1006, EK60)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monitor and measure the biological, chemical, and physical environment in the area of the oil spill from the deep water horizon oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico. A wide...

  17. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  18. Simulating an extreme over-the-horizon optical propagation event over Lake Michigan using a coupled mesoscale modeling and ray tracing framework

    Basu, S.

    2017-01-01

    Accurate simulation and forecasting of over-the-horizon propagation events are essential for various civilian and defense applications. We demonstrate the prowess of a newly proposed coupled mesoscale modeling and ray tracing framework in reproducing such an event. Wherever possible, routinely

  19. Subjective Life Horizon and Portfolio Choice

    Spaenjers , Christophe; Spira, Sven Michael

    2013-01-01

    Using data from a U.S. household survey, we examine the empirical relation between subjective life horizon (i.e., the self-reported expectation of remaining life span) and portfolio choice. We find that equity portfolio shares are higher for investors with longer horizons, ceteris paribus, in line with theoretical predictions. This result is robust to controlling for optimism and health status, accounting for the endogeneity of equity market participation, or instrumenting subjective life hor...

  20. VMware Horizon View 6 desktop virtualization cookbook

    Ventresco, Jason

    2014-01-01

    If you want a more detailed explanation concerning the implementation of several different core features of VMware Horizon View, this is the book for you. Whether you are new to VMware Horizon View or an existing user, this book will provide you with the knowledge you need to successfully deploy several core features and get introduced to the latest features of version 6.0 as well.

  1. Forecasting in Planning

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  2. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model

  3. On density forecast evaluation

    Diks, C.

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, probability integral transforms (PITs) have been popular means for evaluating density forecasts. For an ideal density forecast, the PITs should be uniformly distributed on the unit interval and independent. However, this is only a necessary condition, and not a sufficient one, as

  4. Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

    Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

  5. Cosmological event horizons, thermodynamics, and particle creation

    Gibbons, G.W.; Hawking, S.W.

    1977-01-01

    It is shown that the close connection between event horizons and thermodynamics which has been found in the case of black holes can be extended to cosmological models with a repulsive cosmological constant. An observer in these models will have an event horizon whose area can be interpreted as the entropy or lack of information of the observer about the regions which he cannot see. Associated with the event horizon is a surface gravity kappa which enters a classical ''first law of event horizons'' in a manner similar to that in which temperature occurs in the first law of thermodynamics. It is shown that this similarity is more than an analogy: An observer with a particle detector will indeed observe a background of thermal radiation coming apparently from the cosmological event horizon. If the observer absorbs some of this radiation, he will gain energy and entropy at the expense of the region beyond his ken and the event horizon will shrink. The derivation of these results involves abandoning the idea that particles should be defined in an observer-independent manner. They also suggest that one has to use something like the Everett-Wheeler interpretation of quantum mechanics because the back reaction and hence the spacetime metric itself appear to be observer-dependent, if one assumes, as seems reasonable, that the detection of a particle is accompanied by a change in the gravitational field

  6. THE ACCURACY AND BIAS EVALUATION OF THE USA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FORECASTS. METHODS TO IMPROVE THE FORECASTS ACCURACY

    MIHAELA BRATU (SIMIONESCU

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study some alternative forecasts for the unemployment rate of USA made by four institutions (International Monetary Fund (IMF, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, Congressional Budget Office (CBO and Blue Chips (BC are evaluated regarding the accuracy and the biasness. The most accurate predictions on the forecasting horizon 201-2011 were provided by IMF, followed by OECD, CBO and BC.. These results were gotten using U1 Theil’s statistic and a new method that has not been used before in literature in this context. The multi-criteria ranking was applied to make a hierarchy of the institutions regarding the accuracy and five important accuracy measures were taken into account at the same time: mean errors, mean squared error, root mean squared error, U1 and U2 statistics of Theil. The IMF, OECD and CBO predictions are unbiased. The combined forecasts of institutions’ predictions are a suitable strategy to improve the forecasts accuracy of IMF and OECD forecasts when all combination schemes are used, but INV one is the best. The filtered and smoothed original predictions based on Hodrick-Prescott filter, respectively Holt-Winters technique are a good strategy of improving only the BC expectations. The proposed strategies to improve the accuracy do not solve the problem of biasness. The assessment and improvement of forecasts accuracy have an important contribution in growing the quality of decisional process.

  7. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov Based Test for Comparing the Predictive Accuracy of Two Sets of Forecasts

    Hossein Hassani

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a complement statistical test for distinguishing between the predictive accuracy of two sets of forecasts. We propose a non-parametric test founded upon the principles of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS test, referred to as the KS Predictive Accuracy (KSPA test. The KSPA test is able to serve two distinct purposes. Initially, the test seeks to determine whether there exists a statistically significant difference between the distribution of forecast errors, and secondly it exploits the principles of stochastic dominance to determine whether the forecasts with the lower error also reports a stochastically smaller error than forecasts from a competing model, and thereby enables distinguishing between the predictive accuracy of forecasts. We perform a simulation study for the size and power of the proposed test and report the results for different noise distributions, sample sizes and forecasting horizons. The simulation results indicate that the KSPA test is correctly sized, and robust in the face of varying forecasting horizons and sample sizes along with significant accuracy gains reported especially in the case of small sample sizes. Real world applications are also considered to illustrate the applicability of the proposed KSPA test in practice.

  8. Impact of onsite solar generation on system load demand forecast

    Kaur, Amanpreet; Pedro, Hugo T.C.; Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We showed the impact onsite solar generation on system demand load forecast. • Forecast performance degrades by 9% and 3% for 1 h and 15 min forecast horizons. • Error distribution for onsite case is best characterized as t-distribution. • Relation between error, solar penetration and solar variability is characterized. - Abstract: Net energy metering tariffs have encouraged the growth of solar PV in the distribution grid. The additional variability associated with weather-dependent renewable energy creates new challenges for power system operators that must maintain and operate ancillary services to balance the grid. To deal with these issues power operators mostly rely on demand load forecasts. Electric load forecast has been used in power industry for a long time and there are several well established load forecasting models. But the performance of these models for future scenario of high renewable energy penetration is unclear. In this work, the impact of onsite solar power generation on the demand load forecast is analyzed for a community that meets between 10% and 15% of its annual power demand and 3–54% of its daily power demand from a solar power plant. Short-Term Load Forecasts (STLF) using persistence, machine learning and regression-based forecasting models are presented for two cases: (1) high solar penetration and (2) no penetration. Results show that for 1-h and 15-min forecasts the accuracy of the models drops by 9% and 3% with high solar penetration. Statistical analysis of the forecast errors demonstrate that the error distribution is best characterized as a t-distribution for the high penetration scenario. Analysis of the error distribution as a function of daily solar penetration for different levels of variability revealed that the solar power variability drives the forecast error magnitude whereas increasing penetration level has a much smaller contribution. This work concludes that the demand forecast error distribution

  9. Application of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble to seasonal water supply forecasting in the Great Lakes basin through the use of the Great Lakes Seasonal Climate Forecast Tool

    Gronewold, A.; Apps, D.; Fry, L. M.; Bolinger, R.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) contribution to the internationally coordinated 6-month forecast of Great Lakes water levels relies on several water supply models, including a regression model relating a coming month's water supply to past water supplies, previous months' precipitation and temperature, and forecasted precipitation and temperature. Probabilistic forecasts of precipitation and temperature depicted in the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlook maps are considered to be standard for use in operational forecasting for seasonal time horizons, and have provided the basis for computing a coming month's precipitation and temperature for use in the USACE water supply regression models. The CPC outlook maps are a useful forecast product offering insight into interpretation of climate models through the prognostic discussion and graphical forecasts. However, recent evolution of USACE forecast procedures to accommodate automated data transfer and manipulation offers a new opportunity for direct incorporation of ensemble climate forecast data into probabilistic outlooks of water supply using existing models that have previously been implemented in a deterministic fashion. We will present results from a study investigating the potential for applying data from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble to operational water supply forecasts. The use of NMME forecasts is facilitated by a new, publicly available, Great Lakes Seasonal Climate Forecast Tool that provides operational forecasts of monthly average temperatures and monthly total precipitation summarized for each lake basin.

  10. Floating oil-covered debris from Deepwater Horizon: identification and application

    Carmichael, Catherine A; Lemkau, Karin L; Nelson, Robert K; Reddy, Christopher M; Arey, J Samuel; Graham, William M; Linn, Laura J

    2012-01-01

    The discovery of oiled and non-oiled honeycomb material in the Gulf of Mexico surface waters and along coastal beaches shortly after the explosion of Deepwater Horizon sparked debate about its origin and the oil covering it. We show that the unknown pieces of oiled and non-oiled honeycomb material collected in the Gulf of Mexico were pieces of the riser pipe buoyancy module of Deepwater Horizon. Biomarker ratios confirmed that the oil had originated from the Macondo oil well and had undergone significant weathering. Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s records of the oil spill trajectory at the sea surface, we show that the honeycomb material preceded the front edge of the uncertainty of the oil slick trajectory by several kilometers. We conclude that the observation of debris fields deriving from damaged marine materials may be incorporated into emergency response efforts and forecasting of coastal impacts during future offshore oil spills, and ground truthing predicative models. (letter)

  11. Horizons of hermeneutics: Intercultural hermeneutics in a globalizing world

    J. de Mul (Jos)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractStarting from the often-used metaphor of the "horizon of experience" this article discusses three different types of intercultural hermeneutics, which respectively conceive hermeneutic interpretation as a widening of horizons, a fusion of horizons, and a dissemination of horizons. It is

  12. Comparison of two new short-term wind-power forecasting systems

    Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J. [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza (Spain); Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of La Rioja, Logrono (Spain); Monteiro, Claudio; Sousa, Joao; Bessa, Ricardo [FEUP, Fac. Engenharia Univ. Porto (Portugal)]|[INESC - Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores do Porto, Porto (Portugal)

    2009-07-15

    This paper presents a comparison of two new advanced statistical short-term wind-power forecasting systems developed by two independent research teams. The input variables used in both systems were the same: forecasted meteorological variable values obtained from a numerical weather prediction model; and electric power-generation registers from the SCADA system of the wind farm. Both systems are described in detail and the forecasting results compared, revealing great similarities, although the proposed structures of the two systems are different. The forecast horizon for both systems is 72 h, allowing the use of the forecasted values in electric market operations, as diary and intra-diary power generation bid offers, and in wind-farm maintenance planning. (author)

  13. Accurate Medium-Term Wind Power Forecasting in a Censored Classification Framework

    Dahl, Christian M.; Croonenbroeck, Carsten

    2014-01-01

    We provide a wind power forecasting methodology that exploits many of the actual data's statistical features, in particular both-sided censoring. While other tools ignore many of the important “stylized facts” or provide forecasts for short-term horizons only, our approach focuses on medium......-term forecasts, which are especially necessary for practitioners in the forward electricity markets of many power trading places; for example, NASDAQ OMX Commodities (formerly Nord Pool OMX Commodities) in northern Europe. We show that our model produces turbine-specific forecasts that are significantly more...... accurate in comparison to established benchmark models and present an application that illustrates the financial impact of more accurate forecasts obtained using our methodology....

  14. From probabilistic forecasts to statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

    Pinson, Pierre; Papaefthymiou, George; Klockl, Bernd

    2009-01-01

    on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. However, this additional information may be paramount for a large class of time-dependent and multistage decision-making problems, e.g. optimal operation of combined wind-storage systems or multiple-market trading with different gate closures......Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with highly valuable information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform....... This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits the generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind generation that accounts for both the interdependence structure of prediction errors and the predictive distributions of wind power production. The method is based on the conversion...

  15. Designing Leadership models in a Three Level Unlimited Supply Chain: Non-Cooperative Game Theory Approach

    Ahmad Jaafarnehad

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The role and importance of supply chain management, has faced with many challenges and problems. Although a comprehensive model of supply chain issues, has not been explained, we have to indicate that issues such as reviewing the theoretical foundations of information systems, marketing, financial management, logistical and organizational relations have been considered by many researchers. The objective of supply chain management is to improve various activities and components to increase overall supply chain system benefits. In order to achieve the overall objectives, many contradictions may occur between the components and different levels of supply chain and the contradictions that these disorders over time, result in decreased strength and competitiveness of the supply chain. Such conflicts, like marketing costs (advertising, pricing and inventory can occur during the supply chain life cycle. A Game Theory approach with respect to property is the appropriate tool for collaboration in the supply chain. This tool is used for collaborative making in any kind of supply chain such as cooperative supply chain and non-cooperative supply chain. In the present study and assuming a lack of cooperation between different levels of a supply chain, a dynamic game with complete information has been generated. In addition identifying appropriate leaders of various levels of the supply chain is considered. Non-Cooperative dynamic game mode (Stackelberg Game, for each of the three levels of supply chain including retailers, suppliers and manufacturers are modeled. Depending on the bargaining power and its position in the market, any level of supply chain can make a leader of the following rule. In the present study, the equilibrium model to play Stackelberg game may be led by a leader or leading players and ultimately identifying and modeling the appropriate unlimited three level supply chain are determined.

  16. All you can eat: is food supply unlimited in a colonially breeding bird?

    Hoi, Herbert; Krištofík, Ján; Darolová, Alžbeta

    2015-01-01

    Food availability is generally considered to determine breeding site selection and therefore plays an important role in hypotheses explaining the evolution of colony formation. Hypotheses trying to explain why birds join a colony usually assume that food is not limited, whereas those explaining variation in colony size suggest that food is under constraint. In this study, we investigate the composition and amount of food items not eaten by the nestlings and found in nest burrows of colonially nesting European bee-eaters (Merops apiaster). We aimed to determine whether this unconsumed food is an indicator of unlimited food supply, the result of mistakes during food transfer between parents and chicks or foraging selectivity of chicks. Therefore, we investigated the amount of dropped food for each nest in relation to reproductive performance and parameters reflecting parental quality. Our data suggest that parents carry more food to the nest than chicks can eat and, hence, food is not limited. This assumption is supported by the facts that there is a positive relationship between dropped food found in a nest and the number of fledglings, nestling age, and chick health condition and that the amount of dropped food is independent of colony size. There is variation in the amount of dropped food within colonies, suggesting that parent foraging efficiency may also be an important determinant. Pairs nesting in the center of a colony performed better than those nesting on the edge, which supports the assumption that quality differences between parents are important as well. However, dropped food cannot be used as an indicator of local food availability as (1) within-colony variation in dropped food is larger than between colony variation and, (2) the average amount of dropped food is not related to colony size.

  17. Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow future market expectations?

    Coimbra, C.; Esteves, P.S.

    2004-01-01

    In macroeconomic forecasting, in spite of its important role in price and activity developments, oil prices are usually taken as an exogenous variable, for which assumptions have to be made. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of futures market prices against the other popular technical procedure, the carry-over assumption. The results suggest that there is almost no difference between opting for futures market prices or using the carry-over assumption for short-term forecasting horizons (up to 12 months), while, for longer-term horizons, they favour the use of futures market prices. However, as futures market prices reflect market expectations for world economic activity, futures oil prices should be adjusted whenever market expectations for world economic growth are different to the values underlying the macroeconomic scenarios, in order to fully ensure the internal consistency of those scenarios. (Author)

  18. Load Forecasting in Electric Utility Integrated Resource Planning

    Carvallo, Juan Pablo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Larsen, Peter H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sanstad, Alan H [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Goldman, Charles A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2017-07-19

    Integrated resource planning (IRP) is a process used by many vertically-integrated U.S. electric utilities to determine least-cost/risk supply and demand-side resources that meet government policy objectives and future obligations to customers and, in many cases, shareholders. Forecasts of energy and peak demand are a critical component of the IRP process. There have been few, if any, quantitative studies of IRP long-run (planning horizons of two decades) load forecast performance and its relationship to resource planning and actual procurement decisions. In this paper, we evaluate load forecasting methods, assumptions, and outcomes for 12 Western U.S. utilities by examining and comparing plans filed in the early 2000s against recent plans, up to year 2014. We find a convergence in the methods and data sources used. We also find that forecasts in more recent IRPs generally took account of new information, but that there continued to be a systematic over-estimation of load growth rates during the period studied. We compare planned and procured resource expansion against customer load and year-to-year load growth rates, but do not find a direct relationship. Load sensitivities performed in resource plans do not appear to be related to later procurement strategies even in the presence of large forecast errors. These findings suggest that resource procurement decisions may be driven by other factors than customer load growth. Our results have important implications for the integrated resource planning process, namely that load forecast accuracy may not be as important for resource procurement as is generally believed, that load forecast sensitivities could be used to improve the procurement process, and that management of load uncertainty should be prioritized over more complex forecasting techniques.

  19. Analysis and evaluation of forecasting methods and tools to predict future demand for secondary chemical-biological configuration items

    Ritchey, Chris D.

    2013-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited As the Engineering Support Activity (ESA) for numerous consumable Chemical Biological items managed by the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), Edgewood Chemical Biological Center (ECBC) must be able to complete reviews of all procurement packages within 15 calendar days. With such little lead time, it would be very beneficial if ECBC had the ability to forecast when DLA procurement actions will occur. This thesis presents an evaluation of ...

  20. Forecasting short-term wind farm production in complex terrain. Volume 1

    LeBlanc, M.

    2005-01-01

    Wind energy forecasting adds financial value to wind farms and may soon become a regulatory requirement. A robust information technology system is essential for addressing industry demands. Various forecasting methodologies for short-term wind production in complex terrain were presented. Numerical weather predictions were discussed with reference to supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system site measurements. Forecasting methods using wind speed, direction, temperature and pressure, as well as issues concerning statistical modelling were presented. Model output statistics and neural networks were reviewed, as well as significant components of error. Results from a Garrad Hassan forecaster with a European wind farm were presented, including wind speed evaluation, and forecast horizon for T + 1 hours, T + 12 hours, and T + 36 hours. It was suggested that buy prices often reflect the cost of under-prediction, and that forecasting has more potential where the spread is greatest. Accurate T + 19 hours to T + 31 hours could enable participation in the day-ahead market, which is less volatile and prices are usually better. Estimates of possible profits per annum through the use of GH forecaster power predictions were presented, calculated over and above spilling power to the grid. It was concluded that accurate forecasts combined with certainty evaluation enables the optimization of wind energy in the market, and is applicable to a wide range of weather regimes and terrain types. It was suggested that site feedback is essential for good forecasts at short horizons, and that the value of forecasting is dependent on the market. refs., tabs., figs

  1. Spatial electric load forecasting

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  2. Ensemble Streamflow Forecast Improvements in NYC's Operations Support Tool

    Wang, L.; Weiss, W. J.; Porter, J.; Schaake, J. C.; Day, G. N.; Sheer, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    end of high flow periods. These improvements allowed DEP to more effectively manage water quality control and spill mitigation operations immediately after storm events. Later on, post-processed hydrologic forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) including the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) were implemented into OST. These forecasts further increased the predictive skill over the initial statistical models as current basin conditions (e.g. soil moisture, snowpack) and meteorological forecasts (with HEFS) are now explicitly represented. With the post-processed HEFS forecasts, DEP may now truly quantify impacts associated with wet weather events on the horizon, rather than relying on statistical representations of current hydrologic trends. This presentation will highlight the benefits of the improved forecasts using examples from actual system operations.

  3. Deepwater Horizon Accident Investigation Report

    2010-09-01

    On the evening of April 20, 2010, a well control event allowed hydrocarbons to escape from the Macondo well onto Transocean's Deepwater Horizon, resulting in explosions and fire on the rig. Eleven people lost their lives, and 17 others were injured. The fire, which was fed by hydrocarbons from the well, continued for 36 hours until the rig sank. Hydrocarbons continued to flow from the reservoir through the wellbore and the blowout preventer (BOP) for 87 days, causing a spill of national significance. BP Exploration and Production Inc. was the lease operator of Mississippi Canyon Block 252, which contains the Macondo well. BP formed an investigation team that was charged with gathering the facts surrounding the accident, analyzing available information to identify possible causes and making recommendations to enable prevention of similar accidents in the future. The BP investigation team began its work immediately in the aftermath of the accident, working independently from other BP spill response activities and organizations. The ability to gather information was limited by a scarcity of physical evidence and restricted access to potentially relevant witnesses. The team had access to partial real-time data from the rig, documents from various aspects of the Macondo well's development and construction, witness interviews and testimony from public hearings. The team used the information that was made available by other companies, including Transocean, Halliburton and Cameron. Over the course of the investigation, the team involved over 50 internal and external specialists from a variety of fields: safety, operations, subsea, drilling, well control, cementing, well flow dynamic modeling, BOP systems and process hazard analysis. This report presents an analysis of the events leading up to the accident, eight key findings related to the causal chain of events and recommendations to enable the prevention of a similar accident. The investigation team worked separately

  4. Deepwater Horizon Accident Investigation Report

    NONE

    2010-09-15

    On the evening of April 20, 2010, a well control event allowed hydrocarbons to escape from the Macondo well onto Transocean's Deepwater Horizon, resulting in explosions and fire on the rig. Eleven people lost their lives, and 17 others were injured. The fire, which was fed by hydrocarbons from the well, continued for 36 hours until the rig sank. Hydrocarbons continued to flow from the reservoir through the wellbore and the blowout preventer (BOP) for 87 days, causing a spill of national significance. BP Exploration and Production Inc. was the lease operator of Mississippi Canyon Block 252, which contains the Macondo well. BP formed an investigation team that was charged with gathering the facts surrounding the accident, analyzing available information to identify possible causes and making recommendations to enable prevention of similar accidents in the future. The BP investigation team began its work immediately in the aftermath of the accident, working independently from other BP spill response activities and organizations. The ability to gather information was limited by a scarcity of physical evidence and restricted access to potentially relevant witnesses. The team had access to partial real-time data from the rig, documents from various aspects of the Macondo well's development and construction, witness interviews and testimony from public hearings. The team used the information that was made available by other companies, including Transocean, Halliburton and Cameron. Over the course of the investigation, the team involved over 50 internal and external specialists from a variety of fields: safety, operations, subsea, drilling, well control, cementing, well flow dynamic modeling, BOP systems and process hazard analysis. This report presents an analysis of the events leading up to the accident, eight key findings related to the causal chain of events and recommendations to enable the prevention of a similar accident. The investigation team worked

  5. Super-horizon primordial black holes

    Harada, Tomohiro; Carr, B.J.

    2005-01-01

    We discuss a new class of solutions to the Einstein equations which describe a primordial black hole (PBH) in a flat Friedmann background. Such solutions arise if a Schwarzschild black hole is patched onto a Friedmann background via a transition region. They are possible providing the black hole event horizon is larger than the cosmological apparent horizon. Such solutions have a number of strange features. In particular, one has to define the black hole and cosmological horizons carefully and one then finds that the mass contained within the black hole event horizon decreases when the black hole is larger than the Friedmann cosmological apparent horizon, although its area always increases. These solutions involve two distinct future null infinities and are interpreted as the conversion of a white hole into a black hole. Although such solutions may not form from gravitational collapse in the same way as standard PBHs, there is nothing unphysical about them, since all energy and causality conditions are satisfied. Their conformal diagram is a natural amalgamation of the Kruskal diagram for the extended Schwarzschild solution and the conformal diagram for a black hole in a flat Friedmann background. In this paper, such solutions are obtained numerically for a spherically symmetric universe containing a massless scalar field, but it is likely that they exist for more general matter fields and less symmetric systems

  6. About the National Forecast Chart

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. The National Forecast Charts

  7. Marine Point Forecasts

    will link to the zone forecast and then allow further zooming to the point of interest whereas on the Honolulu, HI Chicago, IL Northern Indiana, IN Lake Charles, LA New Orleans, LA Boston, MA Caribou, ME

  8. Socioeconomic Forecasting : [Technical Summary

    2012-01-01

    Because the traffic forecasts produced by the Indiana : Statewide Travel Demand Model (ISTDM) are driven by : the demographic and socioeconomic inputs to the model, : particular attention must be given to obtaining the most : accurate demographic and...

  9. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  10. Inflow forecasting at BPA

    McManamon, A. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The Columbia River Power System operates with consideration for flood control, endangered species, navigation, irrigation, water supply, recreation, other fish and wildlife concerns and power production. The Bonneville Power Association (BPA) located in Portland, Oregon is responsible for 35-40 per cent of the power consumed within the region. This presentation discussed inflow power concerns at BPA. The presentation illustrated elevational relief of projects; annual and daily variability; the hydrologic cycle; national river service weather forecasting service (NRSWFS); components of NRSWFS; and hydrologic forecast locations. Project operations and inventory were included along with a comparison of the 71-year average unregulated flow with regulated flow at the Dalles. Consistency between short-term and long-term forecasts and long-term streamflow forecasts were also illustrated in graphical format. The presentation also discussed the issue of reducing model and parameter uncertainty; reducing initial conditions uncertainty; snow updating; and reducing meteorological uncertainty. tabs., figs.

  11. CCAA seasonal forecasting

    Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in ..... Explanation is based on spiritual and social values. Taught by .... that provided medicine and food became the subject of strict rules and practices ...

  12. Forecast Icing Product

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Forecast Icing Product (FIP) is an automatically-generated index suitable for depicting areas of potentially hazardous airframe icing. The FIP algorithm uses...

  13. Time-series-based hybrid mathematical modelling method adapted to forecast automotive and medical waste generation: Case study of Lithuania.

    Karpušenkaitė, Aistė; Ruzgas, Tomas; Denafas, Gintaras

    2018-05-01

    The aim of the study was to create a hybrid forecasting method that could produce higher accuracy forecasts than previously used 'pure' time series methods. Mentioned methods were already tested with total automotive waste, hazardous automotive waste, and total medical waste generation, but demonstrated at least a 6% error rate in different cases and efforts were made to decrease it even more. Newly developed hybrid models used a random start generation method to incorporate different time-series advantages and it helped to increase the accuracy of forecasts by 3%-4% in hazardous automotive waste and total medical waste generation cases; the new model did not increase the accuracy of total automotive waste generation forecasts. Developed models' abilities to forecast short- and mid-term forecasts were tested using prediction horizon.

  14. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.

    2003-01-01

    Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...

  15. Conditional probabilistic population forecasting

    Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2003-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...

  16. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2004-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...

  17. Problems of Forecast

    Kucharavy , Dmitry; De Guio , Roland

    2005-01-01

    International audience; The ability to foresee future technology is a key task of Innovative Design. The paper focuses on the obstacles to reliable prediction of technological evolution for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods is presented. The causes for the complexity of technology prediction are discussed in the context of reduction of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to ...

  18. Quantum-corrected geometry of horizon vicinity

    Park, I.Y. [Department of Applied Mathematics, Philander Smith College, Little Rock, AR (United States)

    2017-12-15

    We study the deformation of the horizon-vicinity geometry caused by quantum gravitational effects. Departure from the semi-classical picture is noted, and the fact that the matter part of the action comes at a higher order in Newton's constant than does the Einstein-Hilbert term is crucial for the departure. The analysis leads to a Firewall-type energy measured by an infalling observer for which quantum generation of the cosmological constant is critical. The analysis seems to suggest that the Firewall should be a part of such deformation and that the information be stored both in the horizon-vicinity and asymptotic boundary region. We also examine the behavior near the cosmological horizon. (copyright 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  19. A global string with an event horizon

    Harari, D.; Polychronakos, A.P.

    1990-01-01

    An idealized infinite straight global string in flat space-time has a logarithmically divergent energy per unit length. With gravity included, the standard field theoretical model for a straight global string has been shown to give rise to a repulsive gravitational field, and to develop a curvature singularity at a finite proper distance off the string core. Here we point out that alternative (although probably unrealistic) equations of state for the core of the global string produce a non-singular cylindrically symmetric metric with an event horizon at a finite proper distance off the core, such that timelike observers beyond the horizon are bound to move away from the string. The same geometric structure applies to the standard field theoretical model for a vortex in (2+1)-dimensional gravity. Thermal effects in a quantum field theory around the string due to the presence of the horizon are also calculated. (orig.)

  20. Quantum-corrected geometry of horizon vicinity

    Park, I.Y.

    2017-01-01

    We study the deformation of the horizon-vicinity geometry caused by quantum gravitational effects. Departure from the semi-classical picture is noted, and the fact that the matter part of the action comes at a higher order in Newton's constant than does the Einstein-Hilbert term is crucial for the departure. The analysis leads to a Firewall-type energy measured by an infalling observer for which quantum generation of the cosmological constant is critical. The analysis seems to suggest that the Firewall should be a part of such deformation and that the information be stored both in the horizon-vicinity and asymptotic boundary region. We also examine the behavior near the cosmological horizon. (copyright 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  1. Horizon thermodynamics in fourth-order gravity

    Meng-Sen Ma

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of horizon thermodynamics, the field equations of Einstein gravity and some other second-order gravities can be rewritten as the thermodynamic identity: dE=TdS−PdV. However, in order to construct the horizon thermodynamics in higher-order gravity, we have to simplify the field equations firstly. In this paper, we study the fourth-order gravity and convert it to second-order gravity via a so-called “Legendre transformation” at the cost of introducing two other fields besides the metric field. With this simplified theory, we implement the conventional procedure in the construction of the horizon thermodynamics in 3 and 4 dimensional spacetime. We find that the field equations in the fourth-order gravity can also be written as the thermodynamic identity. Moreover, we can use this approach to derive the same black hole mass as that by other methods.

  2. Forecasting of Radiation Belts: Results From the PROGRESS Project.

    Balikhin, M. A.; Arber, T. D.; Ganushkina, N. Y.; Walker, S. N.

    2017-12-01

    Forecasting of Radiation Belts: Results from the PROGRESS Project. The overall goal of the PROGRESS project, funded in frame of EU Horizon2020 programme, is to combine first principles based models with the systems science methodologies to achieve reliable forecasts of the geo-space particle radiation environment.The PROGRESS incorporates three themes : The propagation of the solar wind to L1, Forecast of geomagnetic indices, and forecast of fluxes of energetic electrons within the magnetosphere. One of the important aspects of the PROGRESS project is the development of statistical wave models for magnetospheric waves that affect the dynamics of energetic electrons such as lower band chorus, hiss and equatorial noise. The error reduction ratio (ERR) concept has been used to optimise the set of solar wind and geomagnetic parameters for organisation of statistical wave models for these emissions. The resulting sets of parameters and statistical wave models will be presented and discussed. However the ERR analysis also indicates that the combination of solar wind and geomagnetic parameters accounts for only part of the variance of the emissions under investigation (lower band chorus, hiss and equatorial noise). In addition, advances in the forecast of fluxes of energetic electrons, exploiting empirical models and the first principles IMPTAM model achieved by the PROGRESS project is presented.

  3. Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods

    Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik A; Madsen, Henrik; Kariniotakis, George

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents an investigation on alternative approaches to the providing of uncertainty estimates associated to point predictions of wind generation. Focus is given to skill forecasts in the form of prediction risk indices, aiming at giving a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the dispersion of ensemble members for a single prediction horizon, or over a set of successive look-ahead times. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and energy imbalances). Wind power ensemble predictions are derived from the transformation of ECMWF and NCEP ensembles of meteorological variables to power, as well as by a lagged average approach alternative. The ability of risk indices calculated from the various types of ensembles forecasts to resolve among situations with different levels of uncertainty is discussed

  4. Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

    2014-05-01

    This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

  5. Hair-brane ideas on the horizon

    Martinec, Emil J.; Niehoff, Ben E.

    2015-01-01

    We continue an examination of the microstate geometries program begun in arXiv:1409.6017, focussing on the role of branes that wrap the cycles which degenerate when a throat in the geometry deepens and a horizon forms. An associated quiver quantum mechanical model of minimally wrapped branes exhibits a non-negligible fraction of the gravitational entropy, which scales correctly as a function of the charges. The results suggest a picture of AdS_3/CFT_2 duality wherein the long string that accounts for BTZ black hole entropy in the CFT description, can also be seen to inhabit the horizon of BPS black holes on the gravity side.

  6. Moving horizon estimation for assimilating H-SAF remote sensing data into the HBV hydrological model

    Montero, Rodolfo Alvarado; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Krahe, Peter; Lisniak, Dmytro; Sensoy, Aynur; Sorman, A. Arda; Akkol, Bulut

    2016-06-01

    Remote sensing information has been extensively developed over the past few years including spatially distributed data for hydrological applications at high resolution. The implementation of these products in operational flow forecasting systems is still an active field of research, wherein data assimilation plays a vital role on the improvement of initial conditions of streamflow forecasts. We present a novel implementation of a variational method based on Moving Horizon Estimation (MHE), in application to the conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV, to simultaneously assimilate remotely sensed snow covered area (SCA), snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture (SM) and in situ measurements of streamflow data using large assimilation windows of up to one year. This innovative application of the MHE approach allows to simultaneously update precipitation, temperature, soil moisture as well as upper and lower zones water storages of the conceptual model, within the assimilation window, without an explicit formulation of error covariance matrixes and it enables a highly flexible formulation of distance metrics for the agreement of simulated and observed variables. The framework is tested in two data-dense sites in Germany and one data-sparse environment in Turkey. Results show a potential improvement of the lead time performance of streamflow forecasts by using perfect time series of state variables generated by the simulation of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model itself. The framework is also tested using new operational data products from the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) of EUMETSAT. This study is the first application of H-SAF products to hydrological forecasting systems and it verifies their added value. Results from assimilating H-SAF observations lead to a slight reduction of the streamflow forecast skill in all three cases compared to the assimilation of streamflow data only. On the other hand

  7. Classification of Near-Horizon Geometries of Extremal Black Holes.

    Kunduri, Hari K; Lucietti, James

    2013-01-01

    Any spacetime containing a degenerate Killing horizon, such as an extremal black hole, possesses a well-defined notion of a near-horizon geometry. We review such near-horizon geometry solutions in a variety of dimensions and theories in a unified manner. We discuss various general results including horizon topology and near-horizon symmetry enhancement. We also discuss the status of the classification of near-horizon geometries in theories ranging from vacuum gravity to Einstein-Maxwell theory and supergravity theories. Finally, we discuss applications to the classification of extremal black holes and various related topics. Several new results are presented and open problems are highlighted throughout.

  8. Science in support of the Deepwater Horizon response

    Lubchenco, Jane; McNutt, Marcia K.; Dreyfus, Gabrielle; Murawski, Steven A.; Kennedy, David M.; Anastas, Paul T.; Chu, Steven; Hunter, Tom

    2012-01-01

    This introduction to the Special Feature presents the context for science during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill response, summarizes how scientific knowledge was integrated across disciplines and statutory responsibilities, identifies areas where scientific information was accurate and where it was not, and considers lessons learned and recommendations for future research and response. Scientific information was integrated within and across federal and state agencies, with input from nongovernmental scientists, across a diverse portfolio of needs—stopping the flow of oil, estimating the amount of oil, capturing and recovering the oil, tracking and forecasting surface oil, protecting coastal and oceanic wildlife and habitat, managing fisheries, and protecting the safety of seafood. Disciplines involved included atmospheric, oceanographic, biogeochemical, ecological, health, biological, and chemical sciences, physics, geology, and mechanical and chemical engineering. Platforms ranged from satellites and planes to ships, buoys, gliders, and remotely operated vehicles to laboratories and computer simulations. The unprecedented response effort depended directly on intense and extensive scientific and engineering data, information, and advice. Many valuable lessons were learned that should be applied to future events.

  9. Multi-parametric variational data assimilation for hydrological forecasting

    Alvarado-Montero, R.; Schwanenberg, D.; Krahe, P.; Helmke, P.; Klein, B.

    2017-12-01

    Ensemble forecasting is increasingly applied in flow forecasting systems to provide users with a better understanding of forecast uncertainty and consequently to take better-informed decisions. A common practice in probabilistic streamflow forecasting is to force deterministic hydrological model with an ensemble of numerical weather predictions. This approach aims at the representation of meteorological uncertainty but neglects uncertainty of the hydrological model as well as its initial conditions. Complementary approaches use probabilistic data assimilation techniques to receive a variety of initial states or represent model uncertainty by model pools instead of single deterministic models. This paper introduces a novel approach that extends a variational data assimilation based on Moving Horizon Estimation to enable the assimilation of observations into multi-parametric model pools. It results in a probabilistic estimate of initial model states that takes into account the parametric model uncertainty in the data assimilation. The assimilation technique is applied to the uppermost area of River Main in Germany. We use different parametric pools, each of them with five parameter sets, to assimilate streamflow data, as well as remotely sensed data from the H-SAF project. We assess the impact of the assimilation in the lead time performance of perfect forecasts (i.e. observed data as forcing variables) as well as deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from ECMWF. The multi-parametric assimilation shows an improvement of up to 23% for CRPS performance and approximately 20% in Brier Skill Scores with respect to the deterministic approach. It also improves the skill of the forecast in terms of rank histogram and produces a narrower ensemble spread.

  10. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting

    Bartholmes

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of analysing the coupling of meteorological meso-scale quantitative precipitation forecasts with distributed rainfall-runoff models to extend the forecasting horizon. Traditionally, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models have been used for real time flood forecasting. More recently, increased computer capabilities allow the utilisation of distributed hydrological models with mesh sizes from tenths of metres to a few kilometres. On the other hand, meteorological models, providing the quantitative precipitation forecast, tend to produce average values on meshes ranging from slightly less than 10 to 200 kilometres. Therefore, to improve the quality of flood forecasts, the effects of coupling the meteorological and the hydrological models at different scales were analysed. A distributed hydrological model (TOPKAPI was developed and calibrated using a 1x1 km mesh for the case of the river Po closed at Ponte Spessa (catchment area c. 37000 km2. The model was then coupled with several other European meteorological models ranging from the Limited Area Models (provided by DMI and DWD with resolutions from 0.0625° * 0.0625°, to the ECMWF ensemble predictions with a resolution of 1.85° * 1.85°. Interesting results, describing the coupled model behaviour, are available for a meteorological extreme event in Northern Italy (Nov. 1994. The results demonstrate the poor reliability of the quantitative precipitation forecasts produced by meteorological models presently available; this is not resolved using the Ensemble Forecasting technique, when compared with results obtainable with measured rainfall.

  11. Nonlinear solar cycle forecasting: theory and perspectives

    Baranovski, A. L.; Clette, F.; Nollau, V.

    2008-02-01

    In this paper we develop a modern approach to solar cycle forecasting, based on the mathematical theory of nonlinear dynamics. We start from the design of a static curve fitting model for the experimental yearly sunspot number series, over a time scale of 306 years, starting from year 1700 and we establish a least-squares optimal pulse shape of a solar cycle. The cycle-to-cycle evolution of the parameters of the cycle shape displays different patterns, such as a Gleissberg cycle and a strong anomaly in the cycle evolution during the Dalton minimum. In a second step, we extract a chaotic mapping for the successive values of one of the key model parameters - the rate of the exponential growth-decrease of the solar activity during the n-th cycle. We examine piece-wise linear techniques for the approximation of the derived mapping and we provide its probabilistic analysis: calculation of the invariant distribution and autocorrelation function. We find analytical relationships for the sunspot maxima and minima, as well as their occurrence times, as functions of chaotic values of the above parameter. Based on a Lyapunov spectrum analysis of the embedded mapping, we finally establish a horizon of predictability for the method, which allows us to give the most probable forecasting of the upcoming solar cycle 24, with an expected peak height of 93±21 occurring in 2011/2012.

  12. Solar Radiation Forecasting, Accounting for Daily Variability

    Roberto Langella

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Radiation forecast accounting for daily and instantaneous variability was pursued by means of a new bi-parametric statistical model that builds on a model previously proposed by the same authors. The statistical model is developed with direct reference to the Liu-Jordan clear sky theoretical expression but is not bound by a specific clear sky model; it accounts separately for the mean daily variability and for the variation of solar irradiance during the day by means of two corrective parameters. This new proposal allows for a better understanding of the physical phenomena and improves the effectiveness of statistical characterization and subsequent simulation of the introduced parameters to generate a synthetic solar irradiance time series. Furthermore, the analysis of the experimental distributions of the two parameters’ data was developed, obtaining opportune fittings by means of parametric analytical distributions or mixtures of more than one distribution. Finally, the model was further improved toward the inclusion of weather prediction information in the solar irradiance forecasting stage, from the perspective of overcoming the limitations of purely statistical approaches and implementing a new tool in the frame of solar irradiance prediction accounting for weather predictions over different time horizons.

  13. Nonlinear solar cycle forecasting: theory and perspectives

    A. L. Baranovski

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we develop a modern approach to solar cycle forecasting, based on the mathematical theory of nonlinear dynamics. We start from the design of a static curve fitting model for the experimental yearly sunspot number series, over a time scale of 306 years, starting from year 1700 and we establish a least-squares optimal pulse shape of a solar cycle. The cycle-to-cycle evolution of the parameters of the cycle shape displays different patterns, such as a Gleissberg cycle and a strong anomaly in the cycle evolution during the Dalton minimum. In a second step, we extract a chaotic mapping for the successive values of one of the key model parameters – the rate of the exponential growth-decrease of the solar activity during the n-th cycle. We examine piece-wise linear techniques for the approximation of the derived mapping and we provide its probabilistic analysis: calculation of the invariant distribution and autocorrelation function. We find analytical relationships for the sunspot maxima and minima, as well as their occurrence times, as functions of chaotic values of the above parameter. Based on a Lyapunov spectrum analysis of the embedded mapping, we finally establish a horizon of predictability for the method, which allows us to give the most probable forecasting of the upcoming solar cycle 24, with an expected peak height of 93±21 occurring in 2011/2012.

  14. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  15. Sighting Horizons of Teaching in Higher Education

    Barnett, Ronald; Guzmán-Valenzuela, Carolina

    2017-01-01

    This conceptual paper tackles the matter of teaching in higher education and proposes a concept of "horizons of teaching." It firstly offers an overview of the considerable empirical literature around teaching--especially conceptions of teaching, approaches to teaching and teaching practices--and goes on to pose some philosophical and…

  16. Falling through the black hole horizon

    Brustein, Ram; Medved, A.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    We consider the fate of a small classical object, a “stick”, as it falls through the horizon of a large black hole (BH). Classically, the equivalence principle dictates that the stick is affected by small tidal forces, and Hawking’s quantum-mechanical model of BH evaporation makes essentially the same prediction. If, on the other hand, the BH horizon is surrounded by a “firewall”, the stick will be consumed as it falls through. We have recently extended Hawking’s model by taking into account the quantum fluctuations of the geometry and the classical back-reaction of the emitted particles. Here, we calculate the strain exerted on the falling stick for our model. The strain depends on the near-horizon state of the Hawking pairs. We find that, after the Page time when the state of the pairs deviates significantly from maximal entanglement (as required by unitarity), the induced strain in our semiclassical model is still parametrically small. This is because the number of the disentangled pairs is parametrically smaller than the BH entropy. A firewall does, however, appear if the number of disentangled pairs near the horizon is of order of the BH entropy, as implicitly assumed in previous discussions in the literature.

  17. The Horizon Is An Imaginary Line

    Gill, Bani; Mahendru, Radha

    The Horizon Is An Imaginary Line (THIAI) is a semi-fictional illustrated account of a young Somali woman's encounters as a refugee in India. Through Maryam, we reflect on the lived experiences of alienation and marginalization as an 'outsider' on the fringes of an increasingly bordered world...

  18. Expanding Your Horizons Conference in Geneva

    Chromek-Burckhart, Doris

    2011-01-01

    CERN and its experiments participated in Expanding Your Horizons (EYH) in Science and Mathematics conference in Geneva on 12th November. EYH nurture girls' interest in science and math courses to encourage them to consider careers in science, technology, engineering, and math.

  19. Agriculture’s Ethical Horizon, book review

    Roughly 6.5 billion people inhabit the earth, but over 1 billion people regularly go hungry. This food shortfall poses an ethical dilemma for agriculture, and Agriculture's Ethical Horizon grapples with this dilemma. It argues that agricultural productivity has been the quintessential value of agr...

  20. The NMC Horizon Report: 2013 Museum Edition

    Johnson, L.; Adams Becker, S.; Freeman, A.

    2013-01-01

    The "NMC Horizon Report: 2013 Museum Edition," is a co-production with the Marcus Institute for Digital Education in the Arts (MIDEA), and examines six emerging technologies for their potential impact on and use in education and interpretation within the museum environment: BYOD (Bring Your Own Device), crowdsourcing, electronic…

  1. Pricing Liquidity Risk with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons

    Beber, A.; Driessen, J.; Tuijp, P.F.A.

    2012-01-01

    We develop a new asset pricing model with stochastic transaction costs and investors with heterogenous horizons. Short-term investors hold only liquid assets in equilibrium. This generates segmentation effects in the pricing of liquid versus illiquid assets. Specifically, the liquidity (risk) premia

  2. Casimir effect and thermodynamics of horizon instabilities

    Hartnoll, Sean A.

    2004-01-01

    We propose a dual thermodynamic description of a classical instability of generalized black hole spacetimes. From a thermodynamic perspective, the instability is due to negative compressibility in regions where the Casimir pressure is large. The argument indicates how the correspondence between thermodynamic and classical instability for horizons may be extended to cases without translational invariance

  3. Structure of diagnostics horizons and humus classification

    Zanella A

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The classification of the main humus forms is generally based on the morpho-genetic characters of the A and OH diagnostic horizons. This is the case in the new European key of classification presented in Freiburg on September 2004 (Eurosoil Congress. Among the morpho-genetic characters, the soil structure covers a very important role. In this work, the structure of the diagnostic A and OH horizons has been analysed in terms of aggregation force, diameter and composition of the soil lumps (peds. In order to study the aggregation force, two disaggregating tools have been conceived and used. The diameter of the lumps has been measured by sieving the soil samples with standardised webs. Observing the samples thanks to a binocular magnifying 10X and 50X, the organic or/and mineral composition of the soil aggregates has been determined, data being investigated with ANOVA and Factorial Analysis. The article examines the argument from two points of view: crashing tools for estimating the soil structure (part 1 and the dimensions of the peds given in European key of humus forms classification (part 2. The categories of soil peds diameter and composition seem to be linked to the main humus forms. For instance, aggregates having a diamater larger than 1 mm and well amalgamate organo-mineral composition are more present in the A horizons of the Mull forms than in which of the other forms; contrary to the OH horizon of the Moder or Mor, the OH horizon of the Amphi forms shows an important percent of small organic lumps. Some propositions have been given in order to improve the European key of humus forms classification.

  4. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  5. What happens at the horizon(s) of an extreme black hole?

    Murata, Keiju; Reall, Harvey S; Tanahashi, Norihiro

    2013-01-01

    A massless scalar field exhibits an instability at the event horizon of an extreme black hole. We study numerically the nonlinear evolution of this instability for spherically symmetric perturbations of an extreme Reissner–Nordstrom (RN) black hole. We find that generically the endpoint of the instability is a non-extreme RN solution. However, there exist fine-tuned initial perturbations for which the instability never decays. In this case, the perturbed spacetime describes a time-dependent extreme black hole. Such solutions settle down to extreme RN outside, but not on, the event horizon. The event horizon remains smooth but certain observers who cross it at late time experience large gradients there. Our results indicate that these dynamical extreme black holes admit a C 1 extension across an inner (Cauchy) horizon. (paper)

  6. Deepwater Horizon Seafood Safety Response - Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Seafood Safety Response

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, there was concern about the risk to human health through consumption of contaminated seafood from the...

  7. Ups and downs of economics and econophysics — Facebook forecast

    Gajic, Nenad; Budinski-Petkovic, Ljuba

    2013-01-01

    What is econophysics and its relationship with economics? What is the state of economics after the global economic crisis, and is there a future for the paradigm of market equilibrium, with imaginary perfect competition and rational agents? Can the next paradigm of economics adopt important assumptions derived from econophysics models: that markets are chaotic systems, striving to extremes as bubbles and crashes show, with psychologically motivated, statistically predictable individual behaviors? Is the future of econophysics, as predicted here, to disappear and become a part of economics? A good test of the current state of econophysics and its methods is the valuation of Facebook immediately after the initial public offering - this forecast indicates that Facebook is highly overvalued, and its IPO valuation of 104 billion dollars is mostly the new financial bubble based on the expectations of unlimited growth, although it’s easy to prove that Facebook is close to the upper limit of its users.

  8. Evaluation of Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power

    Pinson, Pierre; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg, orlov 31.07.2008

    Predictions of wind power production for horizons up to 48-72 hour ahead comprise a highly valuable input to the methods for the daily management or trading of wind generation. Today, users of wind power predictions are not only provided with point predictions, which are estimates of the most...... likely outcome for each look-ahead time, but also with uncertainty estimates given by probabilistic forecasts. In order to avoid assumptions on the shape of predictive distributions, these probabilistic predictions are produced from nonparametric methods, and then take the form of a single or a set...

  9. Forecasting the investors behavior on the capital market in Romania: Trading strategies based on technical analysis versus Artificial Intelligence techniques

    Gabriela Victoria Anghelache

    2013-07-01

    The analysis of various forecasting strategies has been conducted using data sets on a daily basis, on a time horizon of nine years, for a total of 22 companies listed on BSE and for the BET and BET-C exchange indexes; the research is differentiating the pre-crisis period and the crisis period.

  10. Assessment of storm forecast

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    When wind speed exceeds a certain value, wind turbines shut-down in order to protect their structure. This leads to sudden wind plants shut down and to new challenges concerning the secure operation of the pan-European electric system with future large scale offshore wind power. This task aims...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...... to consider it an EWP) and that the available wind speed forecasts are given as a mean wind speed over a rather large area. At wind power level, the analysis shows that prediction of accurate production levels from a wind farm experiencing EWP is rather poor. This is partially because the power curve...

  11. Financial Analysts’ Forecasts

    Stæhr, Simone

    . The primary focus is on financial analysts in the task of conducting earnings forecasts while a secondary focus is on investors’ abilities to interpret and make use of these forecasts. Simply put, financial analysts can be seen as information intermediators receiving inputs to their analyses from firm...... in the decision making and the magnitude of these constraints does sometimes vary with personal traits. Therefore, to the extent that financial analysts are subjects to behavioral biases their outputs to the investors are likely to be biased by their interpretation of information. Because investors need accuracy...... management and providing outputs to the investors. Amongst various outputs from the analysts are forecasts of earnings. According to decision theories mostly from the literature in psychology all humans are affected by cognitive constraints to some degree. These constraints may lead to unintentional biases...

  12. Wind power forecast

    Pestana, Rui [Rede Electrica Nacional (REN), S.A., Lisboa (Portugal). Dept. Systems and Development System Operator; Trancoso, Ana Rosa; Delgado Domingos, Jose [Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa (Portugal). Seccao de Ambiente e Energia

    2012-07-01

    Accurate wind power forecast are needed to reduce integration costs in the electric grid caused by wind inherent variability. Currently, Portugal has a significant wind power penetration level and consequently the need to have reliable wind power forecasts at different temporal scales, including localized events such as ramps. This paper provides an overview of the methodologies used by REN to forecast wind power at national level, based on statistical and probabilistic combinations of NWP and measured data with the aim of improving accuracy of pure NWP. Results show that significant improvement can be achieved with statistical combination with persistence in the short-term and with probabilistic combination in the medium-term. NWP are also able to detect ramp events with 3 day notice to the operational planning. (orig.)

  13. Methodology and forecast products for the optimal offering of ancillary services from wind in a market environment

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre

    . This enables the estimation of return levels below which the extreme wind power forecast error events occur only at a specified rate, e.g. once a month or once every year. The techniques allows extrapolation beyond the available data period. In the study data from 1.5 years is used. It consists of hourly wind...... power production in the two regions of Denmark (DK1 and DK2) and corresponding wind power forecasts. The wind power forecasts are generated using the software WPPT and are based on the outcome of three numerical weather prediction models. They cover horizons from 1 to 42 hours ahead in time...

  14. Short-term solar irradiation forecasting based on Dynamic Harmonic Regression

    Trapero, Juan R.; Kourentzes, Nikolaos; Martin, A.

    2015-01-01

    Solar power generation is a crucial research area for countries that have high dependency on fossil energy sources and is gaining prominence with the current shift to renewable sources of energy. In order to integrate the electricity generated by solar energy into the grid, solar irradiation must be reasonably well forecasted, where deviations of the forecasted value from the actual measured value involve significant costs. The present paper proposes a univariate Dynamic Harmonic Regression model set up in a State Space framework for short-term (1–24 h) solar irradiation forecasting. Time series hourly aggregated as the Global Horizontal Irradiation and the Direct Normal Irradiation will be used to illustrate the proposed approach. This method provides a fast automatic identification and estimation procedure based on the frequency domain. Furthermore, the recursive algorithms applied offer adaptive predictions. The good forecasting performance is illustrated with solar irradiance measurements collected from ground-based weather stations located in Spain. The results show that the Dynamic Harmonic Regression achieves the lowest relative Root Mean Squared Error; about 30% and 47% for the Global and Direct irradiation components, respectively, for a forecast horizon of 24 h ahead. - Highlights: • Solar irradiation forecasts at short-term are required to operate solar power plants. • This paper assesses the Dynamic Harmonic Regression to forecast solar irradiation. • Models are evaluated using hourly GHI and DNI data collected in Spain. • The results show that forecasting accuracy is improved by using the model proposed

  15. Solar Resource Assessment with Sky Imagery and a Virtual Testbed for Sky Imager Solar Forecasting

    Kurtz, Benjamin Bernard

    In recent years, ground-based sky imagers have emerged as a promising tool for forecasting solar energy on short time scales (0 to 30 minutes ahead). Following the development of sky imager hardware and algorithms at UC San Diego, we present three new or improved algorithms for sky imager forecasting and forecast evaluation. First, we present an algorithm for measuring irradiance with a sky imager. Sky imager forecasts are often used in conjunction with other instruments for measuring irradiance, so this has the potential to decrease instrumentation costs and logistical complexity. In particular, the forecast algorithm itself often relies on knowledge of the current irradiance which can now be provided directly from the sky images. Irradiance measurements are accurate to within about 10%. Second, we demonstrate a virtual sky imager testbed that can be used for validating and enhancing the forecast algorithm. The testbed uses high-quality (but slow) simulations to produce virtual clouds and sky images. Because virtual cloud locations are known, much more advanced validation procedures are possible with the virtual testbed than with measured data. In this way, we are able to determine that camera geometry and non-uniform evolution of the cloud field are the two largest sources of forecast error. Finally, with the assistance of the virtual sky imager testbed, we develop improvements to the cloud advection model used for forecasting. The new advection schemes are 10-20% better at short time horizons.

  16. Reflection, radiation, and interference near the black hole horizon

    Kuchiev, M.Yu.

    2004-01-01

    The event horizon of black holes is capable of reflection: there is a finite probability for any particle that approaches the horizon to bounce back. The albedo of the horizon depends on the black hole temperature and the energy of the incoming particle. The reflection shares its physical origins with the Hawking process of radiation; both of them arise as consequences of the mixing of the incoming and outgoing waves that takes place due to quantum processes on the event horizon

  17. Forecast of auroral activity

    Lui, A.T.Y.

    2004-01-01

    A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels

  18. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...

  19. Spatial load forecasting

    Willis, H.L.; Engel, M.V.; Buri, M.J.

    1995-04-01

    The reliability, efficiency, and economy of a power delivery system depend mainly on how well its substations, transmission lines, and distribution feeders are located within the utility service area, and how well their capacities match power needs in their respective localities. Often, utility planners are forced to commit to sites, rights of way, and equipment capacities year in advance. A necessary element of effective expansion planning is a forecast of where and how much demand must be served by the future T and D system. This article reports that a three-stage method forecasts with accuracy and detail, allowing meaningful determination of sties and sizes for future substation, transmission, and distribution facilities.

  20. Electricity price forecasting in deregulated markets: A review and evaluation

    Aggarwal, Sanjeev Kumar; Saini, Lalit Mohan; Kumar, Ashwani [Department of Electrical Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Kurukshetra, Haryana (India)

    2009-01-15

    The main methodologies used in electricity price forecasting have been reviewed in this paper. The following price-forecasting techniques have been covered: (i) stochastic time series, (ii) causal models, and (iii) artificial intelligence based models. The quantitative analysis of the work done by various authors has been presented based on (a) time horizon for prediction, (b) input variables, (c) output variables, (d) results, (e) data points used for analysis, (f) preprocessing technique employed, and (g) architecture of the model. The results have been presented in the form of tables for ease of comparison. Classification of various price-influencing factors used by different researchers has been done and put for reference. Application of various models as applied to different electricity markets is also presented for consideration. (author)