Ensemble-based Regional Climate Prediction: Political Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Miguel, E.; Dykema, J.; Satyanath, S.; Anderson, J. G.

2008-12-01

Accurate forecasts of regional climate, including temperature and precipitation, have significant implications for human activities, not just economically but socially. Sub Saharan Africa is a region that has displayed an exceptional propensity for devastating civil wars. Recent research in political economy has revealed a strong statistical relationship between year to year fluctuations in precipitation and civil conflict in this region in the 1980s and 1990s. To investigate how climate change may modify the regional risk of civil conflict in the future requires a probabilistic regional forecast that explicitly accounts for the community's uncertainty in the evolution of rainfall under anthropogenic forcing. We approach the regional climate prediction aspect of this question through the application of a recently demonstrated method called generalized scalar prediction (Leroy et al. 2009), which predicts arbitrary scalar quantities of the climate system. This prediction method can predict change in any variable or linear combination of variables of the climate system averaged over a wide range spatial scales, from regional to hemispheric to global. Generalized scalar prediction utilizes an ensemble of model predictions to represent the community's uncertainty range in climate modeling in combination with a timeseries of any type of observational data that exhibits sensitivity to the scalar of interest. It is not necessary to prioritize models in deriving with the final prediction. We present the results of the application of generalized scalar prediction for regional forecasts of temperature and precipitation and Sub Saharan Africa. We utilize the climate predictions along with the established statistical relationship between year-to-year rainfall variability in Sub Saharan Africa to investigate the potential impact of climate change on civil conflict within that region.

Climate change projections for Greek viticulture as simulated by a regional climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Koundouras, Stefanos

2017-07-01

Viticulture represents an important economic activity for Greek agriculture. Winegrapes are cultivated in many areas covering the whole Greek territory, due to the favorable soil and climatic conditions. Given the dependence of viticulture on climate, the vitivinicultural sector is expected to be affected by possible climatic changes. The present study is set out to investigate the impacts of climatic change in Greek viticulture, using nine bioclimatic indices for the period 1981-2100. For this purpose, reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and data from the regional climatic model Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) are used. It was found that the examined regional climate model estimates satisfactorily these bioclimatic indices. The results of the study show that the increasing trend of temperature and drought will affect all wine-producing regions in Greece. In vineyards in mountainous regions, the impact is positive, while in islands and coastal regions, it is negative. Overall, it should be highlighted that for the first time that Greece is classified into common climatic characteristic categories, according to the international Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC system). According to the proposed classification, Greek viticulture regions are estimated to have similar climatic characteristics with the warmer wine-producing regions of the world up to the end of twenty-first century. Wine growers and winemakers should take the findings of the study under consideration in order to take measures for Greek wine sector adaptation and the continuation of high-quality wine production.

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

2004-06-01

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

Regional greenhouse climate effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansen, J.; Rind, D.; Delgenio, A.; Lacis, A.; Lebedeff, S.; Prather, M.; Ruedy, R.; Karl, T.

1990-01-01

The authors discuss the impact of an increasing greenhouse effect on three aspects of regional climate: droughts, storms and temperature. A continuous of current growth rates of greenhouse gases causes an increase in the frequency and severity of droughts in their climate model simulations, with the greatest impacts in broad regions of the subtropics and middle latitudes. But the greenhouse effect enhances both ends of the hydrologic cycle in the model, that is, there is an increased frequency of extreme wet situations, as well as increased drought. Model results are shown to imply that increased greenhouse warming will lead to more intense thunderstorms, that is, deeper thunderstorms with greater rainfall. Emanual has shown that the model results also imply that the greenhouse warming leads to more destructive tropical cyclones. The authors present updated records of observed temperatures and show that the observations and model results, averaged over the globe and over the US, are generally consistent. The impacts of simulated climate changes on droughts, storms and temperature provide no evidence that there will be regional winners if greenhouse gases continue to increase rapidly

Spatial scale separation in regional climate modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feser, F.

2005-07-01

In this thesis the concept of scale separation is introduced as a tool for first improving regional climate model simulations and, secondly, to explicitly detect and describe the added value obtained by regional modelling. The basic idea behind this is that global and regional climate models have their best performance at different spatial scales. Therefore the regional model should not alter the global model's results at large scales. The for this purpose designed concept of nudging of large scales controls the large scales within the regional model domain and keeps them close to the global forcing model whereby the regional scales are left unchanged. For ensemble simulations nudging of large scales strongly reduces the divergence of the different simulations compared to the standard approach ensemble that occasionally shows large differences for the individual realisations. For climate hindcasts this method leads to results which are on average closer to observed states than the standard approach. Also the analysis of the regional climate model simulation can be improved by separating the results into different spatial domains. This was done by developing and applying digital filters that perform the scale separation effectively without great computational effort. The separation of the results into different spatial scales simplifies model validation and process studies. The search for 'added value' can be conducted on the spatial scales the regional climate model was designed for giving clearer results than by analysing unfiltered meteorological fields. To examine the skill of the different simulations pattern correlation coefficients were calculated between the global reanalyses, the regional climate model simulation and, as a reference, of an operational regional weather analysis. The regional climate model simulation driven with large-scale constraints achieved a high increase in similarity to the operational analyses for medium-scale 2 meter

Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

2010-12-14

This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

Abilities and limitations in the use of regional climate models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koeltzov, Morten Andreas Oedegaard

2012-11-01

In order to say something about the effect of climate change at the regional level, one takes in use regional climate models. In these models the thesis introduce regional features, which are not included in the global climate models (which are basically in climate research). Regional models can provide good and useful climate projections that add more value than the global climate models, but also introduces an uncertainty in the calculations. How should this uncertainty affect the use of regional climate models?The most common methodology for calculating potential future climate developments are based on different scenarios of possible emissions of greenhouse gases. These scenarios operates as global climate models using physical laws and calculate possible future developments. This is considered mathematical complexed and processes with limited supercomputing capacity calculates the global models for the larger scale of the climate system. To study the effects of climate change are regional details required and the regional models used therefore in a limited area of the climate system. These regional models are driven by data from the global models and refines and improves these data. Impact studies can then use the data from the regional models or data which are further processed to provide more local details using geo-statistical methods. In the preparation of the climate projections is there a minimum of 4 sources of uncertainty. This uncertainty is related to the provision of emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, uncertainties related to the use of global climate models, uncertainty related to the use of regional climate models and the uncertainty of internal variability in the climate system. This thesis discusses the use of regional climate models, and illustrates how the regional climate model adds value to climate projections, and at the same time introduce uncertainty in the calculations. It discusses in particular the importance of the choice of

Etude Climat no. 36 'Regional Climate - Air - Energy Plans: a tool for guiding the energy and climate transition in French regions'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Charentenay, Jeremie; Leseur, Alexia; Bordier, Cecile

2012-01-01

Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Reports' offer in-depth analyses on a given subject. This issue addresses the following points: The Regional Climate-Air-Energy Plan (SRCAE - Schema Regional Climat-Air-Energie) was introduced by the Grenelle II legislation. The Plans are co-authored by the State through its decentralised services and the 'Conseil Regionaux' (regional councils) with the objective to guide climate and energy policy in the 26 French regions through to 2020 and 2050. Starting from an assessment of regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the SRCAE establishes energy transition scenarios based on the sectoral and structural guidelines that constitute the principal framework of the regional strategy. This report offers a detailed analysis of the strategies chosen by the various Regions for a successful transition to low-carbon energy sources, via the study of eleven SRCAEs that were opened to public consultation before the end of July 2012 (Alsace, Aquitaine, Auvergne, Bourgogne, Centre, Champagne-Ardenne, Ile-de-France, Midi-Pyrenees, Nord-Pas de Calais, Picardie and Rhone-Alpes regions). The wide range of methodologies used by the Regions, both to draw up their inventories of GHG emissions and for their scenarios, means that a quantitative comparison between regions or against the national objectives is not possible. Nevertheless, the report establishes a typology of regions and identifies policies that are common to all regions and those chosen in response to local characteristics. Certain guidelines could be applied by other regions of the same type, or could feed into discussions at national level. The report also indicates that the SRCAEs go beyond the competencies of the Regions, highlighting the role of local, national and European decision-making in the success of a regional energy transition. Particular attention was paid to the building and transport sectors, often identified as having the largest potential for reducing

How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claas Teichmann

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Global and regional climate model simulations are frequently used for regional climate change assessments and in climate impact modeling studies. To reflect the inherent and methodological uncertainties in climate modeling, the assessment of regional climate change requires ensemble simulations from different global and regional climate model combinations. To interpret the spread of simulated results, it is useful to understand how the climate change signal is modified in the GCM-RCM modelmodelgeneral circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM chain. This kind of information can also be useful for impact modelers; for the process of experiment design and when interpreting model results. In this study, we investigate how the simulated historical and future climate of the Max-Planck-Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM is modified by dynamic downscaling with the regional model REMO in different world regions. The historical climate simulations for 1950–2005 are driven by observed anthropogenic forcing. The climate projections are driven by projected anthropogenic forcing according to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The global simulations are downscaled with REMO over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX domains Africa, Europe, South America and West Asia from 2006–2100. This unique set of simulations allows for climate type specific analysis across multiple world regions and for multi-scenarios. We used a classification of climate types by Köppen-Trewartha to define evaluation regions with certain climate conditions. A systematic comparison of near-surface temperature and precipitation simulated by the regional and the global model is done. In general, the historical time period is well represented by the GCM and the RCM. Some different biases occur in the RCM compared to the GCM as in the Amazon Basin, northern Africa and the West Asian domain. Both models project similar warming

Regional climate services: A regional partnership between NOAA and USDA

Science.gov (United States)

Climate services in the Midwest and Northern Plains regions have been enhanced by a recent addition of the USDA Climate Hubs to NOAA’s existing network of partners. This new partnership stems from the intrinsic variability of intra and inter-annual climatic conditions, which makes decision-making fo...

Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. P. French

2017-07-01

Full Text Available We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

Seasonal Differences in Climatic Controls of Vegetation Growth in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region of China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, H.

2017-12-01

Seasonal differences in climatic controls of vegetation growth in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region of China Bin He1 , Haiyan Wan11 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Corresponding author: Bin He, email addresses: hebin@bnu.edu.cnPhone:+861058806506, Address: Beijing Normal University, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Email addresses of co-authors: wanghaiyan@mail.bnu.edu.cnABSTRACTLaunched in 2000, the Beiing-Tainjin Sand Source Controlling Project (BTSSCP) is an ecological restoration project intended to prevent desertification in China. Evidence from multiple sources has confirmed increases in vegetation growth in the BTSSCP region since the initiation of the project. Precipitation and related soil moisture conditions typically are considered to be the main drivers of vegetation growth in this arid region. However, by investigating the relationships between vegetation growth and corresponding climatic factors, we identified seasonal variation in the climatic constraints of vegetation growth. In spring, vegetation growth is stimulated mainly by elevated temperature, whereas precipitation is the lead driver of summer greening. In autumn, positive effects of both temperature and precipitation on vegetation growth were observed. Furthermore, strong biosphere-atmosphere interactions were observed in this region. Spring warming promotes vegetation growth, but also reduces soil moisture. Summer greening has a strong cooling effect on land surface temperature. These results indicate that 1) precipitation-based projections of vegetation growth may be misleading; and 2) the ecological and environment consequences of ecological projects should be comprehensively evaluated. KEYWORDS: vegetation growth, climatic drivers, seasonal variation, BTSSCP

Evaluating Regional Scale Deforestation in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Longobardi, P.; Montenegro, A.; Beltrami, H.; Eby, M.

2011-12-01

Forests play a key role in influencing the Earths climate and at the same time are affected by changing climates. At this point it is estimated that 15-30% of Earths natural forests have already been converted to pasture or cropland. With such large amounts of forest being converted to cropland and grassland, it is important to determine the climatic effects of these actions. To date, most modelling efforts towards understanding the climatic effects of deforestation have simulated global deforestation or have been based on experiments where trees were removed from large areas, i.e. the entire Amazon or all forests above 50 N. Here we use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate model which contains a fully coupled carbon cycle, to evaluate the response to deforestation of 10%, 25%, 50% and 100% of the forested areas in three latitude bands: high (above 50°N), mid (above ± 30°) and low (between ± 30°). All simulations were transient simulations, allowing for changes to atmospheric forcings following the A2 emissions scenario. High latitude deforestation lead to cooling (-.05 °C to -0.45 °C) and increase in soil carbon (0.5 to 3 x 1014 kg) for all fractions of deforestation. Due in part to the increase in soil carbon, there was a decrease in atmospheric CO2 in the 50% (-20 ppm) and 100% (-60 ppm) high-latitude deforestation simulations. Low-latitude deforestation initially produced warming in all scenarios (0.1 to 0.25 °C), although all were colder (-0.05 to -0.1 °C) than the control by the end of the simulation. Atmospheric CO2 increased in all simulations (40 to 80 ppm), as well as soil carbon (2 to 16 x 1013 kg). Mid-latitude deforestation also lead to initial warming (0.01 to 0.1 °C) followed by cooling (-0.01 to -0.1 °C). Mid latitude deforestation also produced an increase in soil carbon (2 to 10 x 1013 kg), and atmospheric CO2 (0 to 25ppm). In all three latitude bands forest dieback was observed. Results range from 7% to 37% for high

The Graduate School of Climate Sciences, University of Bern

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, L.

2012-04-01

The Graduate School of Climate Sciences, University of Bern, offers a specialised M.Sc. and a Ph.D. study programme in climate sciences. The graduate school has a highly interdisciplinary profile involving not only natural sciences, but also humanities/history, economics and law. The ten participating institutes with a total of 45 academics provide expertise in long-term climate variability, climate modelling, climate reconstruction, predictability of the future climate and extreme events, the impact of climate change on ecosystems and climate risks for society and economy. The graduate school is fully compliant with the Bologna Accords and collaborates closely with the sister institution C2SM at ETH Zurich by, e.g., jointly organised lectures. There are currently 23 master and 37 doctoral students in the programme. These originate from the University of Bern (28 %), from other Swiss universities (30 %) and from foreign universities (42 %). Comprehensive information about the Graduate School of Climate Sciences is available at http://www.climatestudies.unibe.ch . The M.Sc. in Climate Sciences programme (120 ECTS credits) is designed to attract students from all disciplines in natural sciences and offers them a tailor-made curriculum to reach their career aspirations. The students make their own course selection according to their profile envisaged (specialised versus broad education) and ideally already guided by a job perspective. Selecting the courses and the topic of the master thesis they specialise in one of five fields: climate and earth system science; atmospheric science; economics; economic, social and environmental history; statistics. Several courses are organised jointly with public authorities and the private industry, e.g. from experts working in the insurance business, in weather forecasting or in environmental pollution control. This provides the students hands-on experience and contacts to future employers. The master thesis (60 ECTS) involves the

The regional climate model RegCM3 performances over several regions and climate regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Coppola, E.; Rauscher, S.; Gao, X.; Giorgi, F.; Im, E. S.; Mariotti, L.; Seth, A.; Sylla, M. B.

2009-04-01

Regional Climate models are more and more needed to provide high resolution regional climate information in climate impact studies. Water availability in a future scenario is the main request of policy makers for adaptation and mitigation purposes. However precipitation changes are unlikely to be as spatially coherent as temperature changes and they are closely related to the regional model itself. In addition model skill varies regionally. An example of several ICTP regional climate model (RegCM3) simulations is reported over China, Korea, Africa, Central and Southern America, Europe and Australia. Over China, Australia, and Korea the regional model improves the simulation compared to the driving GCM when compared with CRU observations. In China, for example, the higher resolution of the regional model inhibits the penetration of the monsoon precipitation front from the southern slope of the Himalaya onto the Tibetan Plateau. In Korea the nested domain simulation (20 km) shows an encouraging performance with regard to capturing extreme precipitation episodes and the finer spatial distribution reflects the detailed geography of the Korean Peninsula. Over South America, RegCM captures the annual cycle of precipitation over Northeast Brazil and the South American Monsoon region, although the monsoon onset occurs too early in the model. Precipitation over the Amazon is not well captured, with too little precipitation associated with weak easterlies and reduced moisture transport into the interior of the continent. RegCM simulates the annual cycle of precipitation over Central America and the Caribbean fairly well; in particular, the complex spatial distribution of the Mid-Summer Drought, a decrease in precipitation that occurs during the middle of the rainy season in July and August, is better captured by RegCM than by the GCM. In addition, RegCM simulates the strength and position of the Caribbean low level jet, a mesoscale feature related to precipitation anomalies

Climate-smart agriculture: possible roles of agricultural universities in a strengthened Norwegian climate change engagement in Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Synnevaag, Gry; Lambrou, Jayne Patricia

2012-02-15

adaptation efforts. Norway, together with FAO and the World Bank (WB) has, for some time, been in dialogue with the African Union/NEPAD regarding cooperation on the strengthening of the climate dimension in the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program, CAADP. Support to climate-related research and education can be arranged through the Climate Programme of CGIAR, the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). UMB/Campus Aas has a wide network of partner universities in Africa, upon which further collaboration can be built. This report finds future arrangements under the new NORHED programme to be particularly promising for combining research and education towards climate-smart agriculture in Africa. Past and ongoing support programmes have already strengthened some of our partners to a level where they can serve as Centres of Excellence and function as hubs for regional research and education programmes. Weak universities in collaborating countries in the region may benefit through staff development and student funding mechanisms. UMB will seek to promote the experiences from the seminar series Sustainability, Education and the Management of Change in the Tropics, aimed at spreading the pedagogic approach of EARTH University in Africa and Asia. Food security in Africa needs international attention, particularly with the current prospects of climate change. Fortunately, there are promising opportunities. (Author)

Climate-smart agriculture: possible roles of agricultural universities in a strengthened Norwegian climate change engagement in Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Synnevaag, Gry; Lambrou, Jayne Patricia

2012-02-15

change mitigation and adaptation efforts. Norway, together with FAO and the World Bank (WB) has, for some time, been in dialogue with the African Union/NEPAD regarding cooperation on the strengthening of the climate dimension in the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program, CAADP. Support to climate-related research and education can be arranged through the Climate Programme of CGIAR, the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). UMB/Campus Aas has a wide network of partner universities in Africa, upon which further collaboration can be built. This report finds future arrangements under the new NORHED programme to be particularly promising for combining research and education towards climate-smart agriculture in Africa. Past and ongoing support programmes have already strengthened some of our partners to a level where they can serve as Centres of Excellence and function as hubs for regional research and education programmes. Weak universities in collaborating countries in the region may benefit through staff development and student funding mechanisms. UMB will seek to promote the experiences from the seminar series Sustainability, Education and the Management of Change in the Tropics, aimed at spreading the pedagogic approach of EARTH University in Africa and Asia. Food security in Africa needs international attention, particularly with the current prospects of climate change. Fortunately, there are promising opportunities. (Author)

CARICOF - The Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook Forum

Science.gov (United States)

Van Meerbeeck, Cedric

2013-04-01

Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) are viewed as a critical building block in the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The GFCS seeks to extend RCOFs to all vulnerable regions of the world such as the Caribbean, of which the entire population is exposed to water- and heat-related natural hazards. An RCOF is initially intended to identify gaps in information and technical capability; facilitate research cooperation and data exchange within and between regions, and improve coordination within the climate forecasting community. A focus is given on variations in climate conditions on a seasonal timescale. In this view, the relevance of a Caribbean RCOF (CARICOF) is the following: while the seasonality of the climate in the Caribbean has been well documented, major gaps in knowledge exist in terms of the drivers in the shifts of amplitude and phase of seasons (as evidenced from the worst region-wide drought period in recent history during 2009-2010). To address those gaps, CARICOF has brought together National Weather Services (NWSs) from 18 territories under the coordination of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), to produce region-wide, consensus, seasonal climate outlooks since March 2012. These outlooks include tercile rainfall forecasts, sea and air surface temperature forecasts as well as the likely evolution of the drivers of seasonal climate variability in the region, being amongst others the El Niño Southern Oscillation or tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea temperatures. Forecasts for both the national-scale forecasts made by the NWSs and CIMH's regional-scale forecast amalgamate output from several forecasting tools. These currently include: (1) statistical models such as Canonical Correlation Analysis run with the Climate Predictability Tool, providing tercile rainfall forecasts at weather station scale; (2) a global outlooks published by the WMO appointed Global Producing

The regional characteristics of climatic change in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Longxun

1994-01-01

Using abundant historical records, the Chinese climatologists have analyzed regional climatic change during the past 2,000 years. Recently, more research on regional climatic change has been done by using the data of the instrumental period. The data show that Chinese climatic change has obvious regional characteristics. The average temperature in the whole country has kept increasing since the last century, and reached its highest value in the 1940s, then it decreased. Although there was a warming trend in the 1980s, the temperature declined again. Especially in the area south of 35 degree N and east of 100 degree E in the mainland China, the air temperature decreased continuously from the 1940s. So climatic change in China is not consistent with global warming, but has its own regional characteristics

Strengthening Climate Services Capabilities and Regional Engagement at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center

Science.gov (United States)

Shea, E.

2008-12-01

The demand for sector-based climate information is rapidly expanding. In order to support this demand, it is crucial that climate information is managed in an effective, efficient, and user-conscious manner. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center is working closely with numerous partners to develop a comprehensive interface that is authoritative, accessible, and responsive to a variety of sectors, stakeholders, and other users. This talk will explore these dynamics and activities, with additional perspectives on climate services derived from the regional and global experiences of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center in the Pacific. The author will explore the importance of engaging partners and customers in the development, implementation and emergence of a national climate service program. The presentation will draw on the author's experience in climate science and risk management programs in the Pacific, development of regional and national climate services programs and insights emerging from climate services development efforts in NCDC. In this context, the author will briefly discuss some of guiding principles for effective climate services and applications including: - Early and continuous dialogue, partnership and collaboration with users/customers; - Establishing and sustaining trust and credibility through a program of shared learning and joint problem- solving; - Understanding the societal context for climate risk management and using a problem-focused approach to the development of products and services; - Addressing information needs along a continuum of timescales from extreme events to long-term change; and - Embedding education, outreach and communications activities as critical program elements in effective climate services. By way of examples, the author will reference lessons learned from: early Pacific Island climate forecast applications and climate assessment activities; the implementation of the Pacific Climate

Regional Climate Modelling of the Western Iberian Low-Level Wind Jet

Science.gov (United States)

Soares, Pedro M. M.; Lima, Daniela C. A.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Semedo, Álvaro

2016-04-01

The Iberian coastal low-level jet (CLLJ) is one the less studied boundary layer wind jet features in the Eastern Boundary Currents Systems (EBCS). These regions are amongst the most productive ocean ecosystems, where the atmosphere-land-ocean feedbacks, which include marine boundary layer clouds, coastal jets, upwelling and inland soil temperature and moisture, play an important role in defining the regional climate along the sub-tropical mid-latitude western coastal areas. Recently, the present climate western Iberian CLLJ properties were extensively described using a high resolution regional climate hindcast simulation. A summer maximum frequency of occurrence above 30% was found, with mean maximum wind speeds around 15 ms-1, between 300 and 400m heights (at the jet core). Since the 1990s the climate change impact on the EBCS is being studied, nevertheless some lack of consensus still persists regarding the evolution of upwelling and other components of the climate system in these areas. However, recently some authors have shown that changes are to be expected concerning the timing, intensity and spatial homogeneity of coastal upwelling and of CLLJs, in response to future warming, especially at higher latitudes, namely in Iberia and Canaries. In this study, the first climate change assessment study regarding the Western Iberian CLLJ, using a high resolution (9km) regional climate simulation, is presented. The properties of this CLLJ are studied and compared using two 30 years simulations: one historical simulation for the 1971-2000 period, and another simulation for future climate, in agreement with the RCP8.5 scenario, for the 2071-2100 period. Robust and consistent changes are found: 1) the hourly frequency of occurrence of the CLLJ is expected to increase in summer along the western Iberian coast, from mean maximum values of around 35% to approximately 50%; 2) the relative increase of the CLLJ frequency of occurrence is higher in the north off western Iberia

Climate in Context - How partnerships evolve in regions

Science.gov (United States)

Parris, A. S.

2014-12-01

In 2015, NOAA's RISA program will celebrate its 20th year of exploration in the development of usable climate information. In the mid-1990s, a vision emerged to develop interdisciplinary research efforts at the regional scale for several important reasons. Recognizable climate patterns, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerge at the regional level where our understanding of observations and models coalesce. Critical resources for society are managed in a context of regional systems, such as water supply and human populations. Multiple scales of governance (local, state, and federal) with complex institutional relationships can be examined across a region. Climate information (i.e. data, science, research etc) developed within these contexts has greater potential for use. All of this work rests on a foundation of iterative engagement between scientists and decision makers. Throughout these interactions, RISAs have navigated diverse politics, extreme events and disasters, socio-economic and ecological disruptions, and advances in both science and technology. Our understanding of information needs is evolving into a richer understanding of complex institutional, legal, political, and cultural contexts within which people can use science to make informed decisions. The outcome of RISA work includes both cases where climate information was used in decisions and cases where capacity for using climate information and making climate resilient decisions has increased over time. In addition to balancing supply and demand of scientific information, RISAs are engaged in a social process of reconciling climate information use with important drivers of society. Because partnerships are critical for sustained engagement, and because engagement is critically important to the use of science, the rapid development of new capacity in regionally-based science programs focused on providing climate decision support is both needed and challenging. New actors can bolster

Social climate in diverse university departments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lauring, Jakob; Selmer, Jan

2011-01-01

sharing engagement (sharing informal knowledge of a personal nature and the staff's application of each other's knowledge to task relevant problems) on diversity climate (openness to linguistic, visual, value and informational diversity) among university teachers. Sample: The study used questionnaire...... to diversity are known to be better integrated and to perform better. While the relation between a positive social climate and group functioning is well documented, we know much less about antecedents for such a climate. Purpose: The aim of this study is to examine the effect of internal learning and knowledge...... knowledge of a personal nature; and (2) their application of each other's knowledge to task relevant problems had strong positive associations with openness to linguistic, visible, value and informational diversity. We conclude that interaction and knowledge sharing among teachers in multicultural...

The Monash University Interactive Simple Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Dommenget, D.

2013-12-01

The Monash university interactive simple climate model is a web-based interface that allows students and the general public to explore the physical simulation of the climate system with a real global climate model. It is based on the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model, which is a climate model published by Dommenget and Floeter [2011] in the international peer review science journal Climate Dynamics. The model simulates most of the main physical processes in the climate system in a very simplistic way and therefore allows very fast and simple climate model simulations on a normal PC computer. Despite its simplicity the model simulates the climate response to external forcings, such as doubling of the CO2 concentrations very realistically (similar to state of the art climate models). The Monash simple climate model web-interface allows you to study the results of more than a 2000 different model experiments in an interactive way and it allows you to study a number of tutorials on the interactions of physical processes in the climate system and solve some puzzles. By switching OFF/ON physical processes you can deconstruct the climate and learn how all the different processes interact to generate the observed climate and how the processes interact to generate the IPCC predicted climate change for anthropogenic CO2 increase. The presentation will illustrate how this web-base tool works and what are the possibilities in teaching students with this tool are.

Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

2016-01-01

Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

2009-04-01

Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model Reg

A characteristics of East Asian climate using high-resolution regional climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Yhang, Y.

2013-12-01

Climate research, particularly application studies for water, agriculture, forestry, fishery and energy management require fine scale multi-decadal information of meteorological, oceanographic and land states. Unfortunately, spatially and temporally homogeneous multi-decadal observations of these variables in high horizontal resolution are non-existent. Some long term surface records of temperature and precipitation exist, but the number of observation is very limited and the measurements are often contaminated by changes in instrumentation over time. Some climatologically important variables, such as soil moisture, surface evaporation, and radiation are not even measured over most of East Asia. Reanalysis is one approach to obtaining long term homogeneous analysis of needed variables. However, the horizontal resolution of global reanalysis is of the order of 100 to 200 km, too coarse for many application studies. Regional climate models (RCMs) are able to provide valuable regional finescale information, especially in regions where the climate variables are strongly regulated by the underlying topography and the surface heterogeneity. In this study, we will provide accurately downscaled regional climate over East Asia using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system [GRIMs; Hong et al. 2013]. A mixed layer model is embedded within the GRIMs in order to improve air-sea interaction. A detailed description of the characteristics of the East Asian summer and winter climate will be presented through the high-resolution numerical simulations. The increase in horizontal resolution is expected to provide the high-quality data that can be used in various application areas such as hydrology or environmental model forcing.

Spatial differentiation of China's summer tourist destinations based on climatic suitability using the Universal Thermal Climate Index

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jun; Zhang, Zhenchao; Li, Xueming; Xi, Jianchao; Feng, Zhangxian

2017-11-01

As a result of global warming and the gradual exacerbation of the urban heat island effect, vacationing in the summer to escape the heat has become a compelling tourism demand. This study examines the spatial differentiation of China's summer tourist destinations based on meteorological observations and tourism resources data from 1960 to 2014. The Universal Thermal Climate Index and analytic hierarchy process model were used to analyze climatic suitability. The findings are as follows. First, the spatial distribution of China's summer tourism resources exhibits a double-peak characteristic, with concentrations in the mid- and high-latitude and high-altitude regions. Second, the most influential destinations in China based on the composite index were Guiyang, Qingdao, Harbin, and Dalian. These findings can helpful for people who are planning their summer vacations, as well as tourism managers who benefit from such increases in the number of tourists.

Superensemble of a Regional Climate Model for the Western US using Climateprediction.net

Science.gov (United States)

Mote, P.; Salahuddin, A.; Allen, M.; Jones, R.

2010-12-01

For over a decade, a citizen science experiment called climateprediction.net organized by Oxford University has used computer time contributed by over 80,000 volunteers around the world to create superensembles of global climate simulations. A new climateprediction.net experiment built by the UK Meteorological Office and Oxford, and released in late summer 2010, brings these computing resources to bear on regional climate modeling for the Western US, western Europe, and southern Africa. For the western US, the spatial resolution of 25km permits important topological features -- mountain ranges and valleys -- to be resolved and to influence simulated climate, which consequently includes many important observed features of climate like the fact that California’s Central Valley is hottest at the north and south ends in summer, and cooler in the middle owing to the maritime influence that leaks through the gap in the coast range in the San Francisco area. We designed the output variables to satisfy both research needs and societal and environmental impacts needs. These include atmospheric circulation on regional and global scales, surface fluxes of energy, and hydrologic variables; extremes of temperature, precipitation, and wind; and derived quantities like frost days and number of consecutive dry days. Early results from pre-release beta testing suggest that the simulated fields compare favorably with available observations, and that the model performs as well in the distributed computing environment as on a dedicated high-performance machine. The advantages of a superensemble in interpreting regional climate change will permit an unprecedented combination of statistical completeness and spatial resolution.

Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

2007-01-01

-90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...

MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CENTER OF THE DOE NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATIC CHANGE RESEARCH

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burton, Andrew J. [Michigan Technological University

2014-02-28

The goal of NICCR (National Institute for Climatic Change Research) was to mobilize university researchers, from all regions of the country, in support of the climatic change research objectives of DOE/BER. The NICCR Midwestern Regional Center (MRC) supported work in the following states: North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. The MRC of NICCR was able to support nearly $8 million in climatic change research, including $6,671,303 for twenty projects solicited and selected by the MRC over five requests for proposals (RFPs) and $1,051,666 for the final year of ten projects from the discontinued DOE NIGEC (National Institute for Global Environmental Change) program. The projects selected and funded by the MRC resulted in 135 peer-reviewed publications and supported the training of 25 PhD students and 23 Masters students. Another 36 publications were generated by the final year of continuing NIGEC projects supported by the MRC. The projects funded by the MRC used a variety of approaches to answer questions relevant to the DOE’s climate change research program. These included experiments that manipulated temperature, moisture and other global change factors; studies that sought to understand how the distribution of species and ecosystems might change under future climates; studies that used measurements and modeling to examine current ecosystem fluxes of energy and mass and those that would exist under future conditions; and studies that synthesized existing data sets to improve our understanding of the effects of climatic change on terrestrial ecosystems. In all of these efforts, the MRC specifically sought to identify and quantify responses of terrestrial ecosystems that were not well understood or not well modeled by current efforts. The MRC also sought to better understand and model important feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems, atmospheric chemistry, and regional

Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region- A project of GRENE-ei programs in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Mizoguchi, M.; Matsumoto, J.; Takahashi, H. G.; Tanaka, K.; Kuwagata, T.

2015-12-01

It is important to predict climate change correctly in regional scale and to build adaptation measures and mitigation measures in the Asian monsoon region where more than 60 % of the world's population are living. The reliability of climate change prediction model is evaluated by the reproducibility of past climate in general. However, because there are many developing countries in the Asian monsoon region, adequate documentations of past climate which are needed to evaluate the climate reproducibility have not been prepared. In addition, at present it is difficult to get information on wide-area agricultural meteorological data which affect the growth of agricultural crops when considering the impact on agriculture of climate. Therefore, we have started a research project entitled "Climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on agriculture in Asian monsoon region (CAAM)" under the research framework of the Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) for the Japanese fiscal years from 2011 to 2015 supported by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). This project aims to improve the reliability of future climate prediction and to develop the information platform which will be useful to design adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture against the predicted climatic changes in Asian monsoon regions. What is GRENE?Based on the new growth strategy which was approved by the Cabinet of Japan in June 2010, Green Network of Excellence program (GRENE) has started under MEXT from FY 2011. The objectives of this program are that the domestic leading universities work together strategically and promote a comprehensive human resource development and research of the highest level in the world while sharing research resources and research goals. In the field of environmental information, it is required that universities and research institutions, which are working on issues such as adaptation to climate change, cooperate to

The increased atmospheric greenhouse effect and regional climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Groenaas, S. [Bergen Univ. (Norway)

1996-03-01

This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. The main information for predicting future climate changes comes from integrating coupled climate models of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Regional climate change may be studied from the global integrations, however, resolution is coarse because of insufficient computer power. Attempts are being made to get more regional details out of the global integrations by ``downscaling`` the latter. This can be done in two ways. Firstly, limited area models with high resolution are applied, driven by the global results as boundary values. Secondly, statistical relationships have been found between observed meteorological parameters, like temperature and precipitation, and analyzed large scale gridded fields. The derived relations are then used on similar data from climate runs to give local interpretations. A review is given of literature on recent observations of climate variations and on predicted regional climate change. 18 refs., 4 figs.

Evaluation of regional climate simulations over the Great Lakes region driven by three global data sets

Science.gov (United States)

Shiyuan Zhong; Xiuping Li; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; L. Ruby Leung; William I. Jr. Gustafson

2012-01-01

The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990-1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-...

REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING STUDY FOR THE CARPATHIAN REGION USING REGCM4 EXPERIMENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

PIECZKA I.

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The newest model version of RegCM is adapted with the ultimate aim of providing climate projection for the Carpathian region with 10 km horizontal resolution. For this purpose, first, coarse resolution reanalysis data and global climate model outputs are used to drive 50 km resolution model experiments, from which the outputs are used to provide necessary boundary conditions for the fine scale model runs. Besides the historical runs (for the period 1981-2010, RCP4.5 scenario is also analyzed in this paper for the 21st century. These experiments are essential since they form the basis of national climate and adaptation strategies by providing detailed regional scale climatic projections and enabling specific impact studies for various sectors.

Regional climate change and national responsibilities

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

2016-03-01

Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

Climate Change Assessments for Lakes Region of Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayten Erol

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Climate change is one of the most important challenges for forestry. Forests are known to be most efficient natural tools to ensure availability and quality of water in many regions. Besides, planning of forest resources towards water quality and quantity is essential in countries that are expected to face with more frequent drought periods in the next decades due to climate change. Watershed management concept has been supposed as the primary tool to plan natural resources in a more efficient and sustainable way by both academicians and practitioners to mitigate and adapt climate change. Forest cover among other land use types provides the best regulating mechanism to mitigate erosion, sedimentation, desertification, and pollution. In addition, climate change can potentially affect forest stand dynamics by influencing the availability of water resources. Therefore, the amount of forest cover in a watershed is an indicator of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Climate change is a concern and risk for the sustainability of water resources in Lakes Region of Turkey. The objective of this study is to make a comprehensive assessment in lake watersheds of the Lakes region considering the forest cover. For this purpose, the study gives a general view of trends in climatic parameters using Mann Kendall trend test. The results showed that Mann Kendall trend test for temperature and precipitation data is not enough to evaluate the magnitude of potential changes of climate in terms of forest cover. Understanding impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation on forest cover, runoff data should be evaluated with temperature and precipitation for watersheds of forest areas in Lakes Region.

Evaluation of the regional climate response in Australia to large-scale climate modes in the historical NARCliM simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Fita, L.; Evans, J. P.; Argüeso, D.; King, A.; Liu, Y.

2017-10-01

NARCliM (New South Wales (NSW)/Australian Capital Territory (ACT) Regional Climate Modelling project) is a regional climate modeling project for the Australian area. It is providing a comprehensive dynamically downscaled climate dataset for the CORDEX-AustralAsia region at 50-km resolution, and south-East Australia at a resolution of 10 km. The first phase of NARCliM produced 60-year long reanalysis driven regional simulations to allow evaluation of the regional model performance. This long control period (1950-2009) was used so that the model ability to capture the impact of large scale climate modes on Australian climate could be examined. Simulations are evaluated using a gridded observational dataset. Results show that using model independence as a criteria for choosing atmospheric model configuration from different possible sets of parameterizations may contribute to the regional climate models having different overall biases. The regional models generally capture the regional climate response to large-scale modes better than the driving reanalysis, though no regional model improves on all aspects of the simulated climate.

Chapter 2. The University as a Living Laboratory for Climate Solutions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew St. Clair

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The story of the University of California’s institutional goal of de-carbonization by 2025, already years in the making, was a key feature of a systemwide Summit on carbon neutrality and climate mitigation in the Fall of 2015. This report, commissioned by the Summit, represents a unique multi-campus, interdisciplinary collaboration, an attempt by one university system to harness its diverse intellectual resources to address the crisis of global climate disruption. This chapter puts the Bending the Curve report into the context of the University of California’s (UC carbon neutrality and sustainability initiatives and offers one example of how a large organization can become a “living laboratory”— a research, teaching and learning, and innovation testbed—for climate solutions.

Regionalism in Scottish Universities

Science.gov (United States)

Hutchison, Dougal

1976-01-01

It is well-known that Scottish universities are highly local institutions and that over two-fifth of Scottish university students live at home. Attempts to ascertain if this regionalism has relaxed over the past twenty years with student grant regulations, improvement in communications and the increasing affluence of today's society. (Author/RK)

Endotoxin predictors and associated respiratory outcomes differ with climate regions in the U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Mendy, Angelico; Wilkerson, Jesse; Salo, Pӓivi M; Cohn, Richard D; Zeldin, Darryl C; Thorne, Peter S

2018-03-01

Although endotoxin is a recognized cause of environmental lung disease, how its relationship with respiratory outcomes varies with climate is unknown. To examine the endotoxin predictors as well as endotoxin association with asthma, wheeze, and sensitization to inhalant allergens in various US climate regions. We analyzed data on 6963 participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Endotoxin measurements of house dust from bedroom floor and bedding were performed at the University of Iowa. Linear and logistic regression analyses were used to identify endotoxin predictors and assess endotoxin association with health outcomes. The overall median house dust endotoxin was 16.2 EU/mg; it was higher in mixed-dry/hot-dry regions (19.7 EU/mg) and lower in mixed-humid/marine areas (14.8 EU/mg). Endotoxin predictors and endotoxin association with health outcomes significantly differed across climate regions. In subarctic/very cold/cold regions, log 10 -endotoxin was significantly associated with higher prevalence of wheeze outcomes (OR:1.48, 95% CI:1.19-1.85 for any wheeze, OR:1.48, 95% CI:1.22-1.80 for exercise-induced wheeze, OR:1.50, 95% CI:1.13-1.98 for prescription medication for wheeze, and OR:1.95, 95% CI:1.50-2.54 for doctor/ER visit for wheeze). In hot-humid regions, log 10 -endotoxin was positively associated with any wheeze (OR:1.66, 95% CI:1.04-2.65) and current asthma (OR:1.56, 95% CI:1.11-2.18), but negatively with sensitization to any inhalant allergens (OR:0.83, 95% CI:0.74-0.92). Endotoxin predictors and endotoxin association with asthma and wheeze differ across U.S. climate regions. Endotoxin is associated positively with wheeze or asthma in cold and hot-humid regions, but negatively with sensitization to inhalant allergens in hot-humid climates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of injury incidences between football teams playing in different climatic regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Orchard JW

2013-12-01

Full Text Available John W Orchard,1 Markus Waldén,2 Martin Hägglund,3 Jessica J Orchard,1 Ian Chivers,4 Hugh Seward,5 Jan Ekstrand21School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 2Department of Medical and Health Sciences, Division of Community Medicine, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden; 3Department of Medical and Health Sciences, Division of Physiotherapy, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden; 4Native Seeds, Cheltenham, VIC, Australia; 5Australian Football League Medical Officers Association, Melbourne, VIC, AustraliaAbstract: Australian Football League (AFL teams in northern (warmer areas generally have higher rates of injury than those in southern (cooler areas. Conversely, in soccer (football in Europe, teams in northern (cooler areas have higher rates of injury than those in southern (warmer areas, with an exception being knee anterior cruciate ligament (ACL injuries, which are more common in the southern (warmer parts of Europe. This study examined relative injury incidence in the AFL comparing 9,477 injuries over 229,827 player-weeks from 1999–2012. There was a slightly higher injury incidence for teams from warmer parts of Australia (relative risk [RR] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.10 with quadriceps strains (RR 1.32, 95% CI 1.10–1.58, knee cartilage injuries (RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.16–1.74, and ankle sprains (RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.00–1.37 all being more likely in warmer region teams. Achilles injuries followed a reverse pattern, tending to be more common in cooler region teams (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.47–1.03. In conclusion, common findings from the AFL and European soccer are that ankle sprains and ACL injuries are generally more likely in teams playing in warmer climate zones, whereas Achilles tendinopathy may be more likely in teams playing in cooler zones. These injuries may have climate or surface risk factors (possibly related to types and structure of grass and shoe-surface traction that are

Evaluation of uncertainties in regional climate change simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pan, Z.; Christensen, J. H.; Arritt, R. W.

2001-01-01

, an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (GCM) current climate, and a future scenario of transient climate change. Common precipitation climatology features simulated by both models included realistic orographic precipitation, east-west transcontinental gradients, and reasonable annual cycles over...... to different subgrid scale processes in individual models. The ratio of climate change to biases, which we use as one measure of confidence in projected climate changes, is substantially larger than 1 in several seasons and regions while the ratios are always less than 1 in summer. The largest ratios among all...... regions are in California. Spatial correlation coefficients of precipitation were computed between simulation pairs in the 2x3 set. The climate change correlation is highest and the RCM performance correlation is lowest while boundary forcing and intermodel correlations are intermediate. The high spatial...

Regional decadal predictions of coupled climate-human systems

Science.gov (United States)

Curchitser, E. N.; Lawrence, P.; Felder, F.; Large, W.; Bacmeister, J. T.; Andrews, C.; Kopp, R. E.

2016-12-01

We present results from a project to develop a framework for investigating the interactions between human activity and the climate system using state-of-the-art multi-scale, climate and economic models. The model is applied to the highly industrialized and urbanized coastal region of the northeast US with an emphasis on New Jersey. The framework is developed around the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). The CESM model capabilities are augmented with enhanced resolution of the atmosphere (25 km), land surface (I km) and ocean models (7 km) in our region of interest. To the climate model, we couple human activity models for the utility sector and a 300-equation econometric model with sectorial details of an input-output model for the New Jersey economy. We will present results to date showing the potential impact of climate change on electricity markets on its consequences on economic activity in the region.

Climate Variability and Change in the Mediterranean Region

Science.gov (United States)

Lionello, Piero; Özsoy, Emin; Planton, Serge; Zanchetta, Giovanni

2017-04-01

This special issue collects new research results on the climate of the Mediterranean region. It covers traditional topics of the MedCLIVAR programme (www.medclivar.eu, Lionello et al. 2006, Lionello et al. 2012b) being devoted to papers addressing on-going and future climate changes in the Mediterranean region and their impacts on its environment.

CLIMATIC JUMP IN THE POLAR REGION (I)

OpenAIRE

ヤマモト, リョウザブロウ; イワシマ, タツヤ; ホシアイ, マコト; Ryozaburo, YAMAMOTO; Tatsuya, IWASHIMA; Makoto, HOSHIAI

1987-01-01

From the analysis of the climatic elements over Japan, we can detect the "climatic jumps" around the years 1920 and 1950,which is a new concept in the climatic diagnosis proposed by the present authors (R. YAMAMOTO et al. : J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 63,1157,1985,64,273,1986). Taking account of several results which show the simultaneous occurrence of the climatic jumps of the surface air temperature, precipitation, etc., in the other regions by the other investigators, we may infer the "climati...

Regional climate change-Science in the Southeast

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Sonya A.

2010-01-01

Resource managers are at the forefront of a new era of management. They must consider the potential impacts of climate change on the Nation's resources and proactively develop strategies for dealing with those impacts on plants, animals, and ecosystems. This requires rigorous, scientific understanding of environmental change. The role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in this effort is to analyze climate-change data and develop tools for assessing how changing conditions are likely to impact resources. This information will assist Federal, State, local, and tribal partners manage resources strategically. The 2008 Omnibus Budget Act and Secretarial Order 3289 established a new network of eight Department of Interior Regional Climate Science Centers to provide technical support for resource managers. The Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) is the first regional assessment to be funded by the USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (http://nccw.usgs.gov/). The USGS is working closely with the developing Department of Interior Landscape Conservation Cooperatives to ensure that the project will meet the needs of resource managers in the Southeast. In addition, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is providing resources to the SERAP to expand the scope of the project.

Climate Science Program at California State University, Northridge

Science.gov (United States)

Steele Cox, H.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.; Foley, B.

2012-12-01

Due to its interdisciplinary nature, climate science poses wide-ranging challenges for science and mathematics students seeking careers in this field. There is a compelling need for universities to provide coherent programs in climate science in order to train future climate scientists. With funding from NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE), California State University, Northridge (CSUN), is creating the CSUN Climate Science Program. An interdisciplinary team of faculty members is working in collaboration with UCLA, Santa Monica College and NASA/JPL partners to create a new curriculum in climate science. The resulting sequence of climate science courses, or Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC), is integrated into a Bachelor of Science degree program in the Applied Mathematical Sciences offered by the Mathematics Department at CSUN. The PMCC consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change and related careers. The students who choose to follow this program will be guided to enroll in the following sequence of courses for their 12 units of upper division electives: 1) A newly created course junior level course, Math 396CL, in applied mathematics which will introduce students to applications of vector calculus and differential equations to the study of thermodynamics and atmospheric dynamics. 2) An already existing course, Math 483, with new content on mathematical modeling specialized for this program; 3) An improved version of Phys 595CL on the mathematics and physics of climate change with emphasis on Radiative Transfer; 4) A choice of Geog 407 on Remote Sensing or Geog 416 on Climate Change with updated content to train the students in the analysis of satellite data obtained with the NASA Earth Observing System and instruction in the analysis of data obtained within a Geographical

Regional analysis of ground and above-ground climate

Science.gov (United States)

1981-12-01

The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above ground climate control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dew point ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of Earth tempering as a practice and of specific Earth sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically; while the subsurface almost always provides a thermal advantage on its own terms when compared to above ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate control techniques. Reviews of above and below ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground are included. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 20 locations in the United States.

Regional analysis of ground and above-ground climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1981-12-01

The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long-term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above ground climate control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dew point ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of earth tempering as a practice and of specific earth-sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically; while the subsurface almost always provides a thermal advantage on its own terms when compared to above ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate control techniques. Also contained in the report are reviews of above and below ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 29 locations in the United States.

Statistical downscaling of regional climate scenarios for the French Alps : Impacts on snow cover

Science.gov (United States)

Rousselot, M.; Durand, Y.; Giraud, G.; Mérindol, L.; Déqué, M.; Sanchez, E.; Pagé, C.; Hasan, A.

2010-12-01

Mountain areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Owing to the complexity of mountain terrain, climate research at scales relevant for impacts studies and decisive for stakeholders is challenging. A possible way to bridge the gap between these fine scales and those of the general circulation models (GCMs) consists of combining high-resolution simulations of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to statistical downscaling methods. The present work is based on such an approach. It aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on snow cover in the French Alps for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under several IPCC hypotheses. An analogue method based on high resolution atmospheric fields from various RCMs and climate reanalyses is used to simulate local climate scenarios. These scenarios, which provide meteorological parameters relevant for snowpack evolution, subsequently feed the CROCUS snow model. In these simulations, various sources of uncertainties are thus considered (several greenhouse gases emission scenarios and RCMs). Results are obtained for different regions of the French Alps at various altitudes. For all scenarios, temperature increase is relatively uniform over the Alps. This regional warming is larger than that generally modeled at the global scale (IPCC, 2007), and particularly strong in summer. Annual precipitation amounts seem to decrease, mainly as a result of decreasing precipitation trends in summer and fall. As a result of these climatic evolutions, there is a general decrease of the mean winter snow depth and seasonal snow duration for all massifs. Winter snow depths are particularly reduced in the Northern Alps. However, the impact on seasonal snow duration is more significant in the Southern and Extreme Southern Alps, since these regions are already characterized by small winter snow depths at low elevations. Reference : IPCC (2007a). Climate change 2007 : The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the

Great plains regional climate assessment technical report

Science.gov (United States)

The Great Plains region (GP) plays important role in providing food and energy to the economy of the United States. Multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors put multiple sectors, livelihoods and communities at risk, including agriculture, water, ecosystems and rural and tribal communities. The G...

Reconstruction of regional climate and climate change in past decades

Science.gov (United States)

von Storch, H.; Feser, F.; Weisse, R.; Zahn, M.

2009-12-01

Regional climate models, which are constrained by large scale information (spectral nudging) provided by re-analyses, allow for the construction of a mostly homogeneous description of regional weather statistics since about 1950. The potential of this approach has been demonstrated for Northern Europe. That data set, named CoastDat, does not only contain hourly data on atmospheric variables, in particular wind, but also on marine weather, i.e., short term water level, current and sea state variations. Another example is the multi-decadal variability of Polar Lows in the subarctic waters. The utility of such data sets is broad, from risk assessments related to coastal wind and wave conditions, assessment of determining the causes for regional climate change, a-posteriori analysis of the efficiency of environmental legislation (example: lead). In the paper, the methodology is outlined, examples are provided and the utility of the product discussed.

Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile.

Science.gov (United States)

Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Persson, Erik; Hanewinkel, Marc

2016-01-01

Do forest owners' levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT) has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile.

Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristina Blennow

Full Text Available Do forest owners' levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile.

Does Nudging Squelch the Extremes in Regional Climate Modeling?

Science.gov (United States)

An important question in regional climate downscaling is whether to constrain (nudge) the interior of the limited-area domain toward the larger-scale driving fields. Prior research has demonstrated that interior nudging can increase the skill of regional climate predictions origin...

Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

2015-01-01

The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250–1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m −2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway. (letter)

Inflated Uncertainty in Multimodel-Based Regional Climate Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Madsen, Marianne Sloth; Langen, Peter L.; Boberg, Fredrik; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

2017-11-01

Multimodel ensembles are widely analyzed to estimate the range of future regional climate change projections. For an ensemble of climate models, the result is often portrayed by showing maps of the geographical distribution of the multimodel mean results and associated uncertainties represented by model spread at the grid point scale. Here we use a set of CMIP5 models to show that presenting statistics this way results in an overestimation of the projected range leading to physically implausible patterns of change on global but also on regional scales. We point out that similar inconsistencies occur in impact analyses relying on multimodel information extracted using statistics at the regional scale, for example, when a subset of CMIP models is selected to represent regional model spread. Consequently, the risk of unwanted impacts may be overestimated at larger scales as climate change impacts will never be realized as the worst (or best) case everywhere.

Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2016-01-01

Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Jens H.; Carter, Timothy R.; Rummukainen, Markku

2007-01-01

This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research articles documenting co-ordinated work carried out within a 3-year European Union project 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects' (PRUDENCE). The main objective...... of the PRUDENCE project was to provide high resolution climate change scenarios for Europe at the end of the twenty-first century by means of dynamical downscaling (regional climate modelling) of global climate simulations. The first part of the issue comprises seven overarching PRUDENCE papers on: (1) the design...... of the model simulations and analyses of climate model performance, (2 and 3) evaluation and intercomparison of simulated climate changes, (4 and 5) specialised analyses of impacts on water resources and on other sectors including agriculture, ecosystems, energy, and transport, (6) investigation of extreme...

The Integration of Climate Science and Collaborative Processes in Building Regional Climate Resiliency in Southeast Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Jurado, J.

2016-12-01

Southeast Florida is widely recognized as one of the most vulnerable regions in the United States to the impacts of climate change, especially sea level rise. Dense urban populations, low land elevations, flat topography, complex shorelines and a porous geology all contribute to the region's challenges. Regional and local governments have been working collaboratively to address shared climate mitigation and adaptation concerns as part of the four-county Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (Compact). This partnership has emphasized, in part, the use of climate data and the development of advanced technical tools and visualizations to help inform decision-making, improve communications, and guide investments. Prominent work products have included regional vulnerability maps and assessments, a unified sea level rise projection for southeast Florida, the development and application of hydrologic models in scenario planning, interdisciplinary resilient redesign planning workshops, and the development of regional climate indicators. Key to the Compact's efforts has been the engagement and expertise of academic and agency partners, including a formal collaboration between the Florida Climate Institute and the Compact to improve research and project collaborations focused on southeast Florida. This presentation will focus on the collaborative processes and work products that have served to accelerate resiliency planning and investments in southeast Florida, with specific examples of how local governments are using these work products to modernize agency processes, and build support among residents and business leaders.

Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in the Carpathian region based on an ENSEMBLE of regional climate models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Gaál, Ladislav; Beranová, Romana; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan

2014-01-01

Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14 ISSN 1687-9309 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014 http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2014/943487/

Regional Analysis of Energy, Water, Land and Climate Interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Tidwell, V. C.; Averyt, K.; Harriss, R. C.; Hibbard, K. A.; Newmark, R. L.; Rose, S. K.; Shevliakova, E.; Wilson, T.

2014-12-01

Energy, water, and land systems interact in many ways and are impacted by management and climate change. These systems and their interactions often differ in significant ways from region-to-region. To explore the coupled energy-water-land system and its relation to climate change and management a simple conceptual model of demand, endowment and technology (DET) is proposed. A consistent and comparable analysis framework is needed as climate change and resource management practices have the potential to impact each DET element, resource, and region differently. These linkages are further complicated by policy and trade agreements where endowments of one region are used to meet demands in another. This paper reviews the unique DET characteristics of land, energy and water resources across the United States. Analyses are conducted according to the eight geographic regions defined in the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Evident from the analyses are regional differences in resources endowments in land (strong East-West gradient in forest, cropland and desert), water (similar East-West gradient), and energy. Demands likewise vary regionally reflecting differences in population density and endowment (e.g., higher water use in West reflecting insufficient precipitation to support dryland farming). The effect of technology and policy are particularly evident in differences in the energy portfolios across the eight regions. Integrated analyses that account for the various spatial and temporal differences in regional energy, water and land systems are critical to informing effective policy requirements for future energy, climate and resource management. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

How the Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) Has Collaboratively Increased Regional Collective Impacts on Climate Literacy Via Networks of Diverse Stakeholders Engaging in Multiple Reinforcing Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Sussman, A.

2016-12-01

The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai`i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. PCEP partners include universities, education nonprofits, state or country offices/ministries of education, local ecological nonprofits, and a variety of community organizations. Partners contribute and share expertise in climate science, local ecological knowledge, K-12 education in the Pacific island region, science and environmental education, community college education, learning science, indigenous navigation, and oceanography. Over the past six years, PCEP has engaged with regional school systems and communities in a wide variety of ways that complement and reinforce each other. Highlighted activities include improving country and state climate science education standards; focusing on place-based local ecological knowledge and skills in working with schools and communities; developing and disseminating formal education resources such as books and web resources that focus on local contexts and skills rather than contextually inappropriate mainland the textbooks; developing and implementing professional development for teachers; and supporting local ways of knowing by gathering and sharing local stories of climate change; and promoting an emphasis on climate adaptation strategies that increase resilience of natural environments and community systems.

Regional climate change mitigation analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rowlands, Ian H [UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, and Univ. of Waterloo (Canada)

1998-10-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the `regional` - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

Regional climate change mitigation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowlands, Ian H.

1998-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the 'regional' - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

Safety climate in university and college laboratories: impact of organizational and individual factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Tsung-Chih; Liu, Chi-Wei; Lu, Mu-Chen

2007-01-01

Universities and colleges serve to be institutions of education excellence; however, problems in the areas of occupational safety may undermine such goals. Occupational safety must be the concern of every employee in the organization, regardless of job position. Safety climate surveys have been suggested as important tools for measuring the effectiveness and improvement direction of safety programs. Thus, this study aims to investigate the influence of organizational and individual factors on safety climate in university and college laboratories. Employees at 100 universities and colleges in Taiwan were mailed a self-administered questionnaire survey; the response rate was 78%. Multivariate analysis of variance revealed that organizational category of ownership, the presence of a safety manager and safety committee, gender, age, title, accident experience, and safety training significantly affected the climate. Among them, accident experience and safety training affected the climate with practical significance. The authors recommend that managers should address important factors affecting safety issues and then create a positive climate by enforcing continuous improvements.

NOAA's Regional Climate Services Program: Building Relationships with Partners and Customers to Deliver Trusted Climate Information at Usable Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Mecray, E. L.; Dissen, J.

2016-12-01

Federal agencies across multiple sectors from transportation to health, emergency management and agriculture, are now requiring their key stakeholders to identify and plan for climate-related impacts. Responding to the drumbeat for climate services at the regional and local scale, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) formed its Regional Climate Services (RCS) program to include Regional Climate Services Directors (RCSD), Regional Climate Centers, and state climatologists in a partnership. Since 2010, the RCS program has engaged customers across the country and amongst many of the nation's key economic sectors to compile information requirements, deliver climate-related products and services, and build partnerships among federal agencies and their regional climate entities. The talk will include a sketch from the Eastern Region that may shed light on the interaction of the multiple entities working at the regional scale. Additionally, we will show examples of our interagency work with the Department of Interior, the Department of Agriculture, and others in NOAA to deliver usable and trusted climate information and resources. These include webinars, print material, and face-to-face customer engagements to gather and respond to information requirements. NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information's RCSDs work on-the-ground to learn from customers about their information needs and their use of existing tools and resources. As regional leads, the RCSDs work within NOAA and with our regional partners to ensure the customer receives a broad picture of the tools and information from across the nation.

Climatic change impacts in Lombardia region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fiorese, G.; Gatto, M.; De Leo, G.

2008-01-01

Climatic change will change significantly our Country through impacts of natural and physical systems, on human health and the productive sectors. This article describes the expected impacts in Lombardia region [it

Modelling the regional effects of climate change on air quality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giorgi, F.; Meleux, F.

2007-01-01

The life cycle of pollutants is affected by chemical as well as meteorological factors, such as wind, temperature, precipitation, solar radiation. Therefore, climatic changes induced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases may be expected to have significant effects on air quality. Because of the spatial variability of the pollutant emissions and climate-change signals, these effects are particularly relevant at the regional to local scales. This paper first briefly reviews modelling tools and methodologies used to study regional climate-change impacts on air quality. Patterns of regional precipitation, temperature, and sea-level changes emerging from the latest set of general circulation model projections are then discussed. Finally, the specific case of climate-change effects on summer ozone concentrations over Europe is presented to illustrate the potential impacts of climate change on pollutant amounts. It is concluded that climate change is an important factor that needs to be taken into account when designing future pollution-reduction policies. (authors)

The Haute-Normandie Climate Air Energy Regional Scheme - Synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-01-01

This regional public and planning document (SRCAE) first proposes a regional diagnosis in terms of energetic situation, climatic situation, air quality situation, building condition (in terms of energy), transports (characteristics of regional transport, of person and goods transport), industries and enterprises (important role of oil and chemical activities, low level of renewable and recovery energies), agriculture and forest, renewable energies (biomass and wastes, wind energy, solar photovoltaic, hydroelectricity, renewable heat production), and territory vulnerability in front of climate change. The second part states objectives and orientations: definition of scenarios, and of sector-based objectives (in the building, transport, agricultural, and industrial sectors, in the development of renewable energies, and in terms of adaptation to climate change). Synthetic approaches are then stated in relationship with different challenges related to sustainable behaviours and consumption, promotion of professions related to energy transition, diffusion of good practices in the fields of energy efficiency and emission reduction, sustainable land development, promotion of environmental mutations for the regional economy, innovation to face climate and energy challenges, development of renewable energies, anticipation of the adaptation to climate change, and SRCAE follow-up and assessment. Sheets of definitions of objectives are given for each sector. A synthetic version of this study is provided

Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Lionello

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Future climate projections show higher/lower winter (Dec-Jan-Feb precipitation in the northern/southern Mediterranean region than in present climate conditions. This paper analyzes the results of regional model simulations of the A2 and B2 scenarios, which confirm this opposite precipitation change and link it to the change of cyclone activity. The increase of the winter cyclone activity in future climate scenarios over western Europe is responsible for the larger precipitation at the northern coast of the basin, though the bulk of the change is located outside the Mediterranean region. The reduction of cyclone activity inside the Mediterranean region in future scenarios is responsible for the lower precipitation at the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast.

Building America Best Practices Series: Guide to Determining Climate Regions by County

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gilbride, Theresa L.

2008-10-01

This document describes the eight climate region designations used by the US Department of Energy Building America Program. In addition to describing the climate zones, the document includes a complete list of every county in the United States and their climate region designations. The county lists are grouped by state. The doucment is intended to assist builders to easily identify what climate region they are building in and therefore which climate-specific Building America best practices guide would be most appropriate for them.

University of Rhode Island Regional Earth Systems Center

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rothstein, Lewis [Univ. of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI (United States); Cornillon, P. [Univ. of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI (United States)

2017-02-06

The primary objective of this program was to establish the URI Regional Earth System Center (“Center”) that would enhance overall societal wellbeing (health, financial, environmental) by utilizing the best scientific information and technology to achieve optimal policy decisions with maximum stakeholder commitment for energy development, coastal environmental management, water resources protection and human health protection, while accelerating regional economic growth. The Center was to serve to integrate existing URI institutional strengths in energy, coastal environmental management, water resources, and human wellbeing. This integrated research, educational and public/private sector outreach Center was to focus on local, state and regional resources. The centerpiece activity of the Center was in the development and implementation of integrated assessment models (IAMs) that both ‘downscaled’ global observations and interpolated/extrapolated regional observations for analyzing the complexity of interactions among humans and the natural climate system to further our understanding and, ultimately, to predict the future state of our regional earth system. The Center was to begin by first ‘downscaling’ existing global earth systems management tools for studying the causes of local, state and regional climate change and potential social and environmental consequences, with a focus on the regional resources identified above. The Center would ultimately need to address the full feedbacks inherent in the nonlinear earth systems by quantifying the “upscaled” impacts of those regional changes on the global earth system. Through an interacting suite of computer simulations that are informed by observations from the nation’s evolving climate observatories, the Center activities integrates climate science, technology, economics, and social policy into forecasts that will inform solutions to pressing issues in regional climate change science, �

Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bala, G; Mirin, A

2007-01-19

We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

Regional climate change for the Pacific Northwest

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBean, G.A.; Thomas, G.

1991-01-01

The Pacific Northwest climate is dominated by topography and the Pacific Ocean; the forests have become adapted to the present climate. Within short distances there are large changes in precipitation and temperature, with resultant changes in ecosystems. As the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases increase, global climate is expected to warm and precipitation to increase. Global climate model simulations show enhanced warming at high northern latitudes. For the Pacific Northwest, models show 2-6 degree C warming and increased precipitation in the winter for doubled atmospheric CO 2 concentration. However, the regional details of these models are presently not very reliable. The results and limitations of present global climate models are reviewed. The roles of the oceans, clouds, and other feedback mechanisms are described along with some of the possible impacts of climate change on forest resources. 24 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

Developing a Process for Sustained Climate Assessment in the US Southwest Region

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, B.; Rick, U. K.; McNie, E. C.

2017-12-01

Climate information needs often vary across states, regions, and sectors. While a national assessment provides foundational guidance about the science and impacts of climate change, there is also value in an ongoing climate assessment process with a more targeted regional geographic scale and sectoral focus. Such a process could provide timely and relevant climate information that is sometimes more detailed than what can be included in a national assessment, while also providing a foundation of knowledge and relationships that can be drawn on in larger-scale assessment processes. In the Sustained Climate Assessment in the Southwest project, researchers are investigating opportunities for sustained assessment in the US Southwest National Climate Assessment (NCA) region - an area that consists of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. This work is focused on identifying key elements of an ongoing climate assessment process for the region in collaboration with climate service providers and users, with the goal of connecting providers and users to increase access to information and understanding of climate impacts in decision-making contexts. It is focused on four key sectors that represent a range of existing capacity in the region: water, oceans and coasts, agriculture, and transportation. Recommendations for an ongoing assessment process may vary by sector - a reflection of the capacity and opportunity associated with each. In this presentation, we will share case studies of particularly useful or successful existing assessment activities and identify common characteristics across the case studies. We will also share preliminary recommendations for a regional sustained climate assessment process that draws on the broad existing capacity for climate assessment in the region and complements national-scale assessment processes.

Problems and Ways of Improving the Business Climate in the Regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nazym Aminovna Uruzbaeva

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The existence of the specific conditions and development factors of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs in the regions of Kazakhstan supposes the differentiated state policy in order to maintain a favorable business climate. The article presents the results of the research whose purpose was to determine the main issues and directions of the improvement of the business climate in the regions. This allows to intensify the activities of local authorities in support of SMEs considering the peculiarities of the territories’ development. The subject matter of this research is the conditions and factors generating the business climate of the region. As a hypothesis, a direct connection between the prevailing regional business climate and the development of the quantitative indicators of active SMEs in the field was assumed. The study used the method of comparative analysis, sociological methods of focus groups, survey research, statistical methods and statistical methods of ranking and grouping. The article theoretically substantiates the correctness of the usage of «business climate» category as a scope of the study in the framework of the project of «Implementation of «Business Climate» as an Independent Rating», which makes possible the argumentation of the used methodology and concretization of the factors affecting the functioning of SMEs in the regions. This research has confirmed the direct correlation between the established business climate in the regions and quantitative indicators of the development of SMEs at the local level. Such factors as “financial resources” and “government support” have been determined as limiting the business development in a greater degree. In conclusion, a set of measures to improve the business climate in the region both at national and regional levels of government has been provided. In addition, it has been concluded that to generate a favorable business environment in the regions of

Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

2006-01-01

The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in Central Europe from ENSEMBLES regional climate models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Gaál, Ľ.; Beranová, R.; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan

2014-01-01

Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14 ISSN 1687-9309 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 ; RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014

Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

2003-01-01

An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km...

Perceptions of Ethical Climate and Research Pressures in Different Faculties of a University: Cross-Sectional Study at the University of Split, Croatia.

Science.gov (United States)

Malički, Mario; Katavić, Vedran; Marković, Domagoj; Marušić, Matko; Marušić, Ana

2017-10-25

We determined the prevailing ethical climate at three different schools of a single university, in order to explore possible differences in the ethical climate related to different research fields: the School of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, and Naval Architecture; the School of Humanities and Social Sciences; and the School of Medicine. We used the Ethical Climate Questionnaire to survey the staff (teachers and administration) at the three schools, and used the research integrity and organizational climate (RIOC) survey for early-stage researchers at the three schools. The dominant ethical climate type perceived collectively at the three university schools (response rate 49%, n = 294) was Laws and professional codes, which is associated with the cosmopolitan level of analysis and the ethical construct of principle. Individually, the same climate predominated at the schools for engineering and humanities, but the School of Medicine had the Self-interest ethical climate, which is associated with the individual level of analysis and the egoism ethical construct. In the RIOC survey (response rate 85%; n = 70), early-stage researchers from the three university schools did not differ in their perceptions of the organizational research integrity climate, or in their perceived individual, group or organizational pressures. Our study is the first, to the best of our knowledge, to show differences in perceived ethical climate at a medical school compared to other schools at a university. Further studies are needed to explore the reasons for these differences and how they translate to organizational outcomes, such as job satisfaction, commitment to the institution and dysfunctional behaviour, including research misconduct.

Regional Highlights of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

David L. Peterson; J.M. Wolken; Teresa Hollingsworth; Christian Giardina; J.S. Littell; Linda Joyce; Chris Swanston; Stephen Handler; Lindsey Rustad; Steve McNulty

2014-01-01

Climatic extremes, ecological disturbance, and their interactions are expected to have major effects on ecosystems and social systems in most regions of the United States in the coming decades. In Alaska, where the largest temperature increases have occurred, permafrost is melting, carbon is being released, and fire regimes are changing, leading to a...

A regional approach to climate adaptation in the Nile Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. B. Butts

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The Nile Basin is one of the most important shared basins in Africa. Managing and developing the water resources within the basin must not only address different water uses but also the trade-off between developments upstream and water use downstream, often between different countries. Furthermore, decision-makers in the region need to evaluate and implement climate adaptation measures. Previous work has shown that the Nile flows can be highly sensitive to climate change and that there is considerable uncertainty in climate projections in the region with no clear consensus as to the direction of change. Modelling current and future changes in river runoff must address a number of challenges; including the large size of the basin, the relative scarcity of data, and the corresponding dramatic variety of climatic conditions and diversity in hydrological characteristics. In this paper, we present a methodology, to support climate adaptation on a regional scale, for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation potential for floods, droughts and water scarcity within the basin.

Promoting Climate And Data Literacy: University Courses Engaging Students In Effective Teaching, Learning, Communication And Outreach Practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Halversen, C.; McDonnell, J. D.; Apple, J. K.; Weiss, E. L.

2016-02-01

Two university courses, 1) Promoting Climate Literacy and 2) Climate and Data Literacy, developed by the University of California Berkeley provide faculty across the country with course materials to help their students delve into the science underlying global environmental change. The courses include culturally responsive content, such as indigenous and place-based knowledge, and examine how people learn and consequently, how we should teach and communicate science. Promoting Climate Literacy was developed working with Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of Washington, and Western Washington University. Climate and Data Literacy was developed with Rutgers University and Padilla Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, WA. The Climate and Data Literacy course also focuses on helping students in science majors participating in U-Teach programs and students in pre-service teacher education programs gain skills in using real and near-real time data through engaging in investigations using web-based and locally-relevant data resources. The course helps these students understand and apply the scientific practices, disciplinary concepts and big ideas described in the Framework for K-12 Science Education and the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). This course focuses on students interested in teaching middle school science for three reasons: (1) teachers often have relatively weak understandings of the practices of science, and of complex Earth systems science and climate change; (2) the concepts that underlie climate change align well with the NGSS; and (3) middle school is a critical time for promoting student interest in science and for recruitment to STEM careers and lifelong climate literacy. This course is now being field tested in a number of U-Teach programs including Florida State University, Louisiana State University, as well as pre-service teacher education programs at California State University East Bay, and Western Washington University

Crop Yield Simulations Using Multiple Regional Climate Models in the Southwestern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Stack, D.; Kafatos, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Walko, R. L.

2013-12-01

Agricultural productivity (described by crop yield) is strongly dependent on climate conditions determined by meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation). California is the largest producer of agricultural products in the United States, but crops in associated arid and semi-arid regions live near their physiological limits (e.g., in hot summer conditions with little precipitation). Thus, accurate climate data are essential in assessing the impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States and other arid regions. To address this issue, we produced simulated climate datasets and used them as input for the crop production model. For climate data, we employed two different regional climate models (WRF and OLAM) using a fine-resolution (8km) grid. Performances of the two different models are evaluated in a fine-resolution regional climate hindcast experiment for 10 years from 2001 to 2010 by comparing them to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Based on this comparison, multi-model ensembles with variable weighting are used to alleviate model bias and improve the accuracy of crop model productivity over large geographic regions (county and state). Finally, by using a specific crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings from the multi-regional climate model ensemble, we demonstrate the degree to which maize yields are sensitive to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States.

Climatic Effects of Regional Nuclear War

Science.gov (United States)

Oman, Luke D.

2011-01-01

We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes seem to be more persistent because of improvements in representing aerosol processes and microphysical/dynamical interactions, including radiative heating effects, in newer global climate system models. The assumptions and calculations that go into these conclusions will be described.

[Research on climatic factors of ecology suitability regionalization of atractylodis].

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Zhe-tian; Wang, Hao; Zhu, Shou-dong; Yan, Yu-ping; Guo, Lan-ping; Zheng, Yu-guang

2015-11-01

Through study on the correlation between atractylodis lactones ingredient content and climatic factors, we research regionalization from climatic of five main producing provinces of the country, in order to provide a scientific basis for atractylodis' conscious cultivation. By sampling from 40 origins which from five main producing provinces of the country, we use SPSS to analysis variation of atractylodis lactones ingredient content in different conditions of climatic factors and the effect of each factors. Then according to the relationship between atractylodis lactones ingredient content and climatic factors, we use ArcGIS to conduct ecological suitability regionalization based on climatic factors. The most suitable climatic condition for cultivation of atractylodis: the wettest month precipitation 220-230 mm, the warmest average temperature 25 degrees C, the average temperature of driest season 10 degrees C.

Estimation of regional mass anomalies from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) over Himalayan region

Science.gov (United States)

Agrawal, R.; Singh, S. K.; Rajawat, A. S.; Ajai

2014-11-01

Time-variable gravity changes are caused by a combination of postglacial rebound, redistribution of water and snow/ice on land and as well as in the ocean. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, launched in 2002, provides monthly average of the spherical harmonic co-efficient. These spherical harmonic co-efficient describe earth's gravity field with a resolution of few hundred kilometers. Time-variability of gravity field represents the change in mass over regional level with accuracies in cm in terms of Water Equivalent Height (WEH). The WEH reflects the changes in the integrated vertically store water including snow cover, surface water, ground water and soil moisture at regional scale. GRACE data are also sensitive towards interior strain variation, surface uplift and surface subsidence cover over a large area. GRACE data was extracted over the three major Indian River basins, Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra, in the Himalayas which are perennial source of fresh water throughout the year in Northern Indian Plain. Time series analysis of the GRACE data was carried out from 2003-2012 over the study area. Trends and amplitudes of the regional mass anomalies in the region were estimated using level 3 GRACE data product with a spatial resolution at 10 by 10 grid provided by Center for Space Research (CSR), University of Texas at Austin. Indus basin has shown a subtle decreasing trend from 2003-2012 however it was observed to be statistically insignificant at 95 % confidence level. Ganga and Brahmaputra basins have shown a clear decreasing trend in WEH which was also observed to be statistically significant. The trend analysis over Ganga and Brahamputra basins have shown an average annual change of -1.28 cm and -1.06 cm in terms of WEH whereas Indus basin has shown a slight annual change of -0.07 cm. This analysis will be helpful to understand the loss of mass in terms of WEH over Indian Himalayas and will be crucial for hydrological and

Climate and climate variability of the wind power resources in the Great Lakes region of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

X. Li; S. Zhong; X. Bian; W.E. Heilman

2010-01-01

The climate and climate variability of low-level winds over the Great Lakes region of the United States is examined using 30 year (1979-2008) wind records from the recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), a three-dimensional, high-spatial and temporal resolution, and dynamically consistent climate data set. The analyses focus on spatial distribution...

Producing custom regional climate data sets for impact assessment with xarray

Science.gov (United States)

Simcock, J. G.; Delgado, M.; Greenstone, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E.; Carleton, T.; Hultgren, A.; Jina, A.; Nath, I.; Rising, J. A.; Rode, A.; Yuan, J.; Chong, T.; Dobbels, G.; Hussain, A.; Song, Y.; Wang, J.; Mohan, S.; Larsen, K.; Houser, T.

2017-12-01

Research in the field of climate impact assessment and valuation frequently requires the pairing of economic observations with historical or projected weather variables. Impact assessments with large geographic scope or spatially aggregated data frequently require climate variables to be prepared for use with administrative/political regions, economic districts such as utility service areas, physical regions such as watersheds, or other larger, non-gridded shapes. Approaches to preparing such data in the literature vary from methods developed out of convenience to more complex measures intended to account for spatial heterogeneity. But more sophisticated methods are difficult to implement, from both a theoretical and a technical standpoint. We present a new python package designed to assist researchers in the preparation of historical and projected climate data for arbitrary spatial definitions. Users specify transformations by providing (a) sets of regions in the form of shapefiles, (b) gridded data to be transformed, and, optionally, (c) gridded weights to use in the transformation. By default, aggregation to regions is conducted such that the resulting regional data draws from each grid cell according to the cell's share of total region area. However, researchers can provide alternative weighting schemes, such that the regional data is weighted by, for example, the population or planted agricultural area within each cell. An advantage of this method is that it enables easy preparation of nonlinear transformations of the climate data before aggregation to regions, allowing aggregated variables to more accurately capture the spatial heterogeneity within a region in the transformed data. At this session, we will allow attendees to view transformed climate projections, examining the effect of various weighting schemes and nonlinear transformations on aggregate regional values, highlighting the implications for climate impact assessment work.

Dynamic Undergraduate Climate Change Affinity Program: University of Delaware Climate Program for Undergraduates (CPUG)

Science.gov (United States)

Merrill, J.

2017-12-01

Multidisciplinary undergraduate climate change education is critical for students entering any sector of the workforce. The University of Delaware has developed a new interdisciplinary affinity program—UD Climate Program for Undergraduates (CPUG)—open to undergraduate students of all majors to provide a comprehensive educational experience designed to educate skilled climate change problem-solvers for a wide range of professional careers. The program is designed to fulfill all General Education requirements, and includes a residential community commitment and experiential learning in community outreach and problem solving. Seminars will introduce current popular press and research materials and provide practice in confirming source credibility, communications training, and psychological support, as well as team building. As undergraduates, members of the UD CPUG team will define, describe, and develop a solution or solutions for a pressing local climate challenge that has the potential for global impact. The choice of a challenge and approach to addressing it will be guided by the student's advisor. Students are expected to develop a practical, multidisciplinary solution to address the challenge as defined, using their educational and experiential training. Solutions will be presented to the UD community during the spring semester of their senior year, as a collaborative team solution, with enhancement through individual portfolios from each team member. The logic model, structure, curricular and co-curricular supports for the CPUG will be provided. Mechanisms of support available through University administration will also be discussed.

Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

2015-12-01

Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

Fossil Fuel Industry Funding of Climate-Relevant Research at U.S. Universities

Science.gov (United States)

Franta, B.; Supran, G.

2017-12-01

Commercial producers of lead, tobacco, petroleum, and other products have funded extensive scholarly research in ways designed to confuse the public about the dangers of those products and thwart regulation [1-3]. For example, strategy documentation of the U.S. oil and gas industry from the late 1990s describes using selective support for scientists as a strategy for creating an atmosphere of debate and uncertainty, with the ultimate goal of delaying and defeating climate policies [4]. In this context, we systematically examine current funding from commercial fossil fuel interests of climate-relevant research - such as energy technology and climate policy research - in U.S. universities. We quantify such funding using charitable giving databases, university websites, and other publicly available records. We find that, especially among the most influential universities, climate-related research programs are frequently dominated by funding from fossil fuel interests. Moreover, these relationships sometimes afford funders privileges including formal control over research directions. This work represents an advance in mapping the presence of commercial fossil fuel interests in academia and may contribute to discussions of appropriate funding systems for climate-relevant research. 1. Markowitz, G. and D. Rosner, Lead Wars: The Politics of Science and the Fate of America's Children. 1st ed. 2013: University of California Press. 2. Brandt, A.M., Inventing Conflicts of Interest: A History of Tobacco Industry Tactics. American Journal of Public Health, 2012. 102(1): p. 63-71. 3. Oreskes, N. and E.M. Conway, Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming. 2011: Bloomsbury Press. 4. Walker, J., Global Climate Science Communications Action Plan. 1998. Workshop held at the headquarters of the American Petroleum Institute.

Regional aerosol emissions and temperature response: Local and remote climate impacts of regional aerosol forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica; Hansson, Hans-Christen

2017-04-01

Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols vary substantially over the globe and the short atmospheric residence time of aerosols leads to a highly uneven radiative forcing distribution, both spatially and temporally. Regional aerosol radiative forcing can, nevertheless, exert a large influence on the temperature field away from the forcing region through changes in heat transport or the atmospheric or ocean circulation. Moreover, the global temperature response distribution to aerosol forcing may vary depending on the geographical location of the forcing. In other words, the climate sensitivity in one region can vary depending on the location of the forcing. The surface temperature distribution response to changes in sulphate aerosol forcing caused by sulphur dioxide (SO2) emission perturbations in four different regions is investigated using the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). The four regions, Europe, North America, East and South Asia, are all regions with historically high aerosol emissions and are relevant from both an air-quality and climate policy perspective. All emission perturbations are defined relative to the year 2000 emissions provided for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The global mean temperature change per unit SO2 emission change is similar for all four regions for similar magnitudes of emissions changes. However, the global temperature change per unit SO2 emission in simulations where regional SO2 emission were removed is substantially higher than that obtained in simulations where regional SO2 emissions were increased. Thus, the climate sensitivity to regional SO2 emissions perturbations depends on the magnitude of the emission perturbation in NorESM. On regional scale, on the other hand, the emission perturbations in different geographical locations lead to different regional temperature responses, both locally and in remote regions. The results from the model simulations are used to construct regional temperature potential

High-resolution regional climate model evaluation using variable-resolution CESM over California

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, X.; Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.

2015-12-01

Understanding the effect of climate change at regional scales remains a topic of intensive research. Though computational constraints remain a problem, high horizontal resolution is needed to represent topographic forcing, which is a significant driver of local climate variability. Although regional climate models (RCMs) have traditionally been used at these scales, variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) have recently arisen as an alternative for studying regional weather and climate allowing two-way interaction between these domains without the need for nudging. In this study, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling over California. Our variable-resolution simulations will focus on relatively high resolutions for climate assessment, namely 28km and 14km regional resolution, which are much more typical for dynamically downscaled studies. For comparison with the more widely used RCM method, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used for simulations at 27km and 9km. All simulations use the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) protocols. The time period is from 1979-01-01 to 2005-12-31 (UTC), and year 1979 was discarded as spin up time. The mean climatology across California's diverse climate zones, including temperature and precipitation, is analyzed and contrasted with the Weather Research and Forcasting (WRF) model (as a traditional RCM), regional reanalysis, gridded observational datasets and uniform high-resolution CESM at 0.25 degree with the finite volume (FV) dynamical core. The results show that variable-resolution CESM is competitive in representing regional climatology on both annual and seasonal time scales. This assessment adds value to the use of VRGCMs for projecting climate change over the coming century and improve our understanding of both past and future regional climate related to fine

Assessment of nurses' work climate at Alexandria Main University Hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Emam, Sanaa Abdel-aziz; Nabawy, Zeinab Mohamed; Mohamed, Azzaa Hassan; Sbeira, Walaa Hashem

2005-01-01

Work climate is indicative of how well the organization is realizing its full potential. An accurate assessment of work climate can identify the unnecessary obstacles to nurses interfering with their best performance. The present study aims to assess nurses' work climate at Alexandria Main University Hospital. The study sample included all nurses (N=400) who were working in inpatient medical and surgical units at the Alexandria Main University Hospital who were available at the time of data collection. A structured questionnaire was developed to assess nurses' perceptions regarding the dimensions of work climate. Data was collected by individual interview using the structured questionnaire. Results indicated that the highest percentages of nurses in medical and surgical units perceived that their work climate is characterized by good way of performance management, feeling of responsibility, warmth and supportive relationships, quality of communication, morale, organizational clarity and feeling of identity and belongness to the hospital. Nurses perceived that they are lacking work climate conducive to conflict resolution, participation in decision making, opportunity for training and development, fair rewards and recognition, calculated risks, sufficient resources, effective leadership and teamwork. There were no significant difference between nurses perceptions in medical and surgical units regarding all dimensions of work climate. The highest percentage of nurses in all units were satisfied only with the feeling of responsibility, way of performance management, and quality of communication. Conflict and identity were perceived as the most important areas that need improvement in the hospital. Based on the results recommendations were given to enhance work climate through designing compensation and recognition systems, and negotiate their requirements and accomplishment based on established standards and outcomes measures. Also, encouragement of and planning for

Regional hydro-climatic impacts of contemporary Amazonian deforestation

Science.gov (United States)

Khanna, Jaya

More than 17% of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared in the past three decades triggering important climatological and societal impacts. This thesis is devoted to identifying and explaining the regional hydroclimatic impacts of this change employing multidecadal satellite observations and numerical simulations providing an integrated perspective on this topic. The climatological nature of this study motivated the implementation and application of a cloud detection technique to a new geostationary satellite dataset. The resulting sub daily, high spatial resolution, multidecadal time series facilitated the detection of trends and variability in deforestation triggered cloud cover changes. The analysis was complemented by satellite precipitation, reanalysis and ground based datasets and attribution with the variable resolution Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Model. Contemporary Amazonian deforestation affects spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers. But, unlike the well-studied impacts of a few kilometers scale deforestation, the climatic response to contemporary, large scale deforestation is neither well observed nor well understood. Employing satellite datasets, this thesis shows a transition in the regional hydroclimate accompanying increasing scales of deforestation, with downwind deforested regions receiving 25% more and upwind deforested regions receiving 25% less precipitation from the deforested area mean. Simulations robustly reproduce these shifts when forced with increasing deforestation alone, suggesting a negligible role of large-scale decadal climate variability in causing the shifts. Furthermore, deforestation-induced surface roughness variations are found necessary to reproduce the observed spatial patterns in recent times illustrating the strong scale-sensitivity of the climatic response to Amazonian deforestation. This phenomenon, inconsequential during the wet season, is found to substantially affect the regional hydroclimate in the local dry and parts of

An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.

1995-01-01

ESCAPE (the Evaluation of Strategies to address Climate change by Adapting to and Preventing Emissions) is an integrated climate change assessment model constructed between 1990 and 1992 for DG XI of the Commission of the European Community by a consortium of research institutes headed by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). It has been designed to enable the user to generate future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (through an energy-economic model), examine their impact on global climate and sea level (through two independent global climate models), and illustrate some of the consequences of this global climate change at a regional scale for the European Community (through a regional climate scenario generator and impact models). We provide a very brief overview of the ESCAPE model which, although innovative, suffers from a number of major limitations. Subsequent work in the CRU has concentrated on improvements to the global climate module and work has also commenced on an improved regional climate scenario generating module. These improvements will lead to a new integrated climate change assessment model, MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) which can easily be incorporated into new larger integrated frameworks developed by other institutes. (Author)

Establishment of educational module “Climate Change” in the University of Liepaja

OpenAIRE

Javaitis, Ivars

2016-01-01

Increase of awareness and high knowledge base of society in the field of climate change and environment in general in global and local ranges is vital to prevent future possible increase of climate changes in the world. In order to more involve society in prevention of future climate changes, national government has come up with National Climate Policy [1], which includes possibility for educational institutions such as University of Liepaja to develop educational programs, including lifelong...

Academic Service Climate as a Source of Competitive Advantage: Leverage for University Administrators

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Angela; Kennedy, Barbara; Stocks, Belinda

2006-01-01

The psychological climate literature examines links between facets of climate, such as service orientation and a range of individual and organisational outcomes including work attitudes and performance. This study investigated the relationship between the service climate of an Australian university and outcomes important to its key stakeholders. A…

Improving Innovation in University Spin-Offs. The Fostering Role of University and Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Prencipe

2016-06-01

Full Text Available University spin-offs (USOs are companies created to commercialize knowledge or technology developed in academia; thus, their major contribution to the knowledge economy is their ability to generate innovation. Following the Resource-Based View of the Firm and the Knowledge Spillover Theory of Entrepreneurship, it was stated that fostering mechanisms at university level and at regional level may positively influence the USOs innovation. Based on a sample of 621 Italian USOs, we show that the positive impact of the university context is more crucial compared with those of the regional context. In particular, the university affiliated business incubators and Science Parks, jointly with the university financial resources, seem to promote the innovation efforts of USOs. These evidences rise the need of a resilient partnership among all the contextual players involved in the spillover processes, mainly at regional level, in order to effectively exploit the potential innovative efforts of the university start-ups.

A SIMULATION STUDY ON THE SHRUNK WETLAND AROUND QINGHAI LAKE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WANG HanJie; JING Li; GAO YunXiao

2005-01-01

Because of the increasing concerns about global climate change, it has been known by more and more peoples that there is a close relationship between wetland and/or peatland resources and climate change. This paper presents a new methodology to study the local climate variation caused by wetland shrinking around Qinghai Lake, the largest in-land salty lake in China, by use of a regional climate model (RCM) that commonly used in climate change study. The objective focuses on the regional climate effect of the shrunk wetland coverage in recent years. The results of numerical experiment showed that if the wetland coverage around Qinhai Lake were recovered as if in early 50s of last century,the regional climate in this area could be better with more cloud covers, higher relative humidity and more precipitation. In the other word, the area of wetland reduced is one of the most important reasons that caused regional climate aridification,eco-environmental deterioration and even desertification around Qinhai Lake.

Climate change and fire management in the mid-Atlantic region

Science.gov (United States)

Kenneth L. Clark; Nicholas Skowronski; Heidi Renninger; Robert. Scheller

2014-01-01

In this review, we summarize the potential impacts of climate change on wildfire activity in the mid-Atlantic region, and then consider how the beneficial uses of prescribed fire could conflict with mitigation needs for climate change, focusing on patters of carbon (C) sequestration by forests in the region. We use a synthesis of field studies, eddy flux tower...

Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

Science.gov (United States)

Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

2017-04-01

The Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) is a wine region, in the northern Portugal, recognized for the Porto wine, which is responsible for more than 60% of the total value of national wine exportations. Since the viticulture is highly dependent on weather/climate patterns, the global warming is expected to affect the areas suitable to the growth of a certain variety of grape, its production and quality. This highlights the need of regional studies that assess the future climate changes effects in the vineyard, which might allow an early adjustment. We explore future climate change in the DDR region using a high-resolution regional climate model for Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model - low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). Two future periods have been simulated using the emission scenario RCP8.5 - for the mid- (2046-2065) and late 21st century (2081-2100) - and compared to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCP8.5 is a "baseline" scenario without any climate mitigation and corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to other scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our regional WRF implementation uses three online-nested domains with increasing resolution at a downscaling ratio of three. The coarser domain of 81-km resolution covers part of the North Atlantic Ocean and most of the Europe. The innermost 9-km horizontal resolution domain includes the Iberian Peninsula, a portion of Northern Africa and the adjacent part of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Our study uses this 9-km resolution domain and focuses on a confined area, which comprises the DDR. Such dynamical downscaling approach gives an advantage to assess climate effects on the DDR region, where the high horizontal resolution allows including effects of the oceanic coastline, local riverbeds and complex topography. The climatology of the DDR region determines the more suitable wine variety

Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

Science.gov (United States)

Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

2013-04-01

From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically

Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Latin American Region

Science.gov (United States)

Magrin, G. O.; Gay Garcia, C.; Cruz Choque, D.; Gimenez-Sal, J. C.; Moreno, A. R.; Nagy, G. J.; Nobre, C.; Villamizar, A.

2007-05-01

Over the past three decades LA was subjected to several climate-related impacts due to increased El Niño occurrences. Two extremely intense episodes of El Niño and other increased climate extremes happened during this period contributing greatly to augment the vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters. In addition to weather and climate, the main drivers of the increased vulnerability are demographic pressure, unregulated urban growth, poverty and rural migration, low investment in infrastructure and services, and problems in inter-sector coordination. As well, increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation observed during the last part of 20th century have yet led to intensification of glaciers melting, increases in floods/droughts and forest fires frequency, increases in morbidity and mortality, increases in plant diseases incidence; lost of biodiversity, reduction in dairy cattle production, and problems with hydropower generation, highly affecting LA human system. For the end of the 21st century, the projected mean warming for LA ranges from 1 to 7.5ºC and the frequency of weather and climate extremes could increase. Additionally, deforestation is projected to continue leading to a reduction of 25 percent in Amazonia forest in 2020 and 40 percent in 2050. Soybeans planted area in South America could increase by 55 percent by 2020 enhancing aridity/desertification in many of the already water- stressed regions. By 2050 LA population is likely to be 50 percent larger than in 2000, and migration from the country sides to the cities will continue. In the near future, these predicted changes are very likely to severely affect a number of ecosystems and sectors distribution; b) Disappearing most tropical glaciers; c) Reducing water availability and hydropower generation; d) Increasing desertification and aridity; e) Severely affecting people, resources and economic activities in coastal areas; f) Increasing crop's pests and diseases

Spurring climate-friendly behaviour change: a case study of the university of Grenoble

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanchard, Odile

2016-01-01

Climate change is definitely a huge challenge for the 21. century. Models in energy economics show that efficiency gains through energy productivity improvement, technical change and technological innovations towards lower carbon technologies will not be sufficient to achieve the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), i.e. stabilize greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Mitigation actions that stem from individual behaviour change towards a lower individual carbon footprint are also part of the response to the climate challenge. Depending on their current behaviour, individuals may focus on many different actions to reduce their carbon footprint, be they at home, at work or any other place: for example, they can use the public transportation system or ride their bike instead of driving their car, video conference instead of flying to a conference or a meeting, turn the heating system off if they open the window when it is cold outside or if they are out of town for some time, turn the lights off when leaving a room, set their computer in sleep mode when not using it for some time, install sockets to shut off the standby modes of their multi-media devices, reduce the amount of waste they generate by purchasing products in bulk or with little packaging, consume local products rather than goods imported from other regions or countries, follow a diet with a low-meat content, and much more. All those actions, as insignificant as they seem to be in terms of individual energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions, do have a real impact at the macro-economic level. Furthermore, they are often 'low-hanging fruit' options, easy to implement at nearly zero cost. Studies that illustrate this point are numerous and cover all GHG emitting sectors. For example, lowering room temperatures by 1 deg. C is estimated to save 7

Simulation of climate characteristics and extremes of the Volta Basin using CCLM and RCA regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Darko, Deborah; Adjei, Kwaku A.; Appiah-Adjei, Emmanuel K.; Odai, Samuel N.; Obuobie, Emmanuel; Asmah, Ruby

2018-06-01

The extent to which statistical bias-adjusted outputs of two regional climate models alter the projected change signals for the mean (and extreme) rainfall and temperature over the Volta Basin is evaluated. The outputs from two regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Africa (CORDEX-Africa) are bias adjusted using the quantile mapping technique. Annual maxima rainfall and temperature with their 10- and 20-year return values for the present (1981-2010) and future (2051-2080) climates are estimated using extreme value analyses. Moderate extremes are evaluated using extreme indices (viz. percentile-based, duration-based, and intensity-based). Bias adjustment of the original (bias-unadjusted) models improves the reproduction of mean rainfall and temperature for the present climate. However, the bias-adjusted models poorly reproduce the 10- and 20-year return values for rainfall and maximum temperature whereas the extreme indices are reproduced satisfactorily for the present climate. Consequently, projected changes in rainfall and temperature extremes were weak. The bias adjustment results in the reduction of the change signals for the mean rainfall while the mean temperature signals are rather magnified. The projected changes for the original mean climate and extremes are not conserved after bias adjustment with the exception of duration-based extreme indices.

Regional climate, local climate and ozone air pollution in Tours and Orleans cities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berthelot, M.

2006-10-01

The importance of the relations between climate and the air pollution justifies the interest related to the role of the urban heat island of heat with respect to the night persistence of ozone in urban environment. When the days are favourable with important ozone concentrations, the agglomerations of the area observe a dynamics day laborer of ozone different from that observed in rural environment. The study is undertaken on the towns of Turns and Orleans where the observations of Lig'Air revealed a night persistence of ozone whereas the concentrations drop more quickly in periphery. This phenomenon is remarkable during the little broken down anticyclonic days. The region region Centre is a ground of study privileged for ozone because of its situation in the south-west of the Island of France rich in precursors of ozone. When flow is of continental origin, the Centre area is found then under the influence of the Paris area. The investigation of a study of the air pollution must take into account the notes of the regional climate and local climate. Several preliminary studies must intervene to answer our principal problems. First of all a descriptive study of the regional climate is carried out with the participation of Meteo-France. The current absence of climatic atlas as well as the many disparities of the climate related to extended from the territory partly justify the interest of our study. The regional approach of the climate is also essential for the continuation of work on a finer scale on the agglomerations of Turns and Orleans in order to detect the urban heat island of heat there. Collaboration with Meteo-France and Lig'Air made it possible to establish a satisfying network of measurement making it possible to obtain notable thermal differences between the downtown area and the surrounding rural environment. The correlation between meteorology and the proven air pollution leads us to establish the climatology of ozone. Many are the studies having

Scalability of regional climate change in Europe for high-end scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, O. B.; Yang, S.; Boberg, F.

2015-01-01

With the help of a simulation using the global circulation model (GCM) EC-Earth, downscaled over Europe with the regional model DMI-HIRHAM5 at a 25 km grid point distance, we investigated regional climate change corresponding to 6°C of global warming to investigate whether regional climate change...... are close to the RCP8.5 emission scenario. We investigated the extent to which pattern scaling holds, i.e. the approximation that the amplitude of any climate change will be approximately proportional to the amount of global warming. We address this question through a comparison of climate change results...... from downscaling simulations over the same integration domain, but for different driving and regional models and scenarios, mostly from the EU ENSEMBLES project. For almost all quantities investigated, pattern scaling seemed to apply to the 6° simulation. This indicates that the single 6° simulation...

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Mondal

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

Shifts in climate suitability for wine production as a result of climate change in a temperate climate wine region of Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Irimia, Liviu Mihai; Patriche, Cristian Valeriu; Quenol, Hervé; Sfîcă, Lucian; Foss, Chris

2018-02-01

Climate change is causing important shifts in the suitability of regions for wine production. Fine scale mapping of these shifts helps us to understand the evolution of vineyard climates, and to find solutions through viticultural adaptation. The aim of this study is to identify and map the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in the climatic suitability for wine production of the Cotnari wine growing region (Romania) between 1961 and 2013. Discontinuities in trends of temperature were identified, and the averages and trends of 13 climatic parameters for the 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013 time periods were analysed. Using the averages of these climatic parameters, climate suitability for wine production was calculated at a resolution of 30 m and mapped for each time period, and the changes analysed. The results indicate shifts in the area's historic climatic profile, due to an increase of heliothermal resources and precipitation constancy. The area's climate suitability for wine production was modified by the loss of climate suitability for white table wines, sparkling wines and wine for distillates; shifts in suitability to higher altitudes by about 67 m, and a 48.6% decrease in the area suitable for quality white wines; and the occurrence of suitable climates for red wines at lower altitudes. The study showed that climate suitability for wine production has a multi-level spatial structure, with classes requiring a cooler climate being located at a higher altitude than those requiring a warmer climate. Climate change has therefore resulted in the shift of climate suitability classes for wine production to higher altitudes.

Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

Science.gov (United States)

Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

1998-03-01

Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

Integration of climatic indices in an objective probabilistic model for establishing and mapping viticultural climatic zones in a region

Science.gov (United States)

Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; Honorio, Fulgencio

2016-05-01

Different climatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this study, we propose using the information obtained from ten climatic indices [heliothermal index (HI), cool night index (CI), dryness index (DI), growing season temperature (GST), the Winkler index (WI), September mean thermal amplitude (MTA), annual precipitation (AP), precipitation during flowering (PDF), precipitation before flowering (PBF), and summer precipitation (SP)] as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main climatic indices, which could influence on wine suitability from a climate viewpoint, and utilizing the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural climatic suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the climatic indices which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural climatic suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural climatic zones in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southwestern Spain, is shown.

Regional Scale/Regional Climate Model Development and Its Applications at Goddard

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W.; Qian, J.; Jia, Y.; Wetzel, P.; Chou, M.-D.; Wang, Y.; Lynn, B.

2000-01-01

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model (Penn State/NCAR MM5) with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America region.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ORIENTAL SPRUCE (PICEA ORIENTALIS ECOSYSTEMS IN EASTERN BLACKSEA REGION OF TURKEY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aydın Tüfekçioğlu

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Climate change has been getting more attention from scientific community recently. Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey will get significant influences from the climate change according to regional climate model (RegCM3. Oriental spruce (Picea orientalis L. is an important tree species of Turkey and it only grows in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. With the increase in global warming, spruce forests started to have serious bark beetle problems. More than 200 000 trees died in the region recently due to bark beetle attack. We used existing literature related to oriental spruce and future climate of the region and field observations done in the different times to assess current status of the spruce stands. Future climate of the region has been predicted using RegCM3 regional climate model. Climate change could significantly influence distribution, diversity, structure and stability of the oriental spruce ecosystems. According to RegCM3 regional climate model, the temperatures will increase 2-4 °C in the region in the next century. Future climate scenarios predict 200-300 mm increases in precipitation in the eastern part of the region while the western part won't have any increase in precipitation in the next century. Temperature increases in the western part of the region can cause more stress on spruce trees and would probably increase bark beetle attacks. Also, fire could become an important threat in the western part of the region. It is possible to observe 400-800 m upward shift in the spruce belt in the western part. Treeline of spruce stands would probably move upward both in western and eastern part of the North-eastern Blacksea Region.

Point Climat no. 26 'Regional Climate - Air - Energy Plans at the heart of the debate on the energy transition'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bordier, Cecile; Leseur, Alexia

2013-01-01

Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Briefs' presents, in a few pages, hot topics in climate change policy. This issue addresses the following points: On the eve of the introduction of the environmental assessment procedure for planning documents, almost all Regional Climate - Air - Energy Plans have now been published. This Climate Brief assesses regional climate strategies, which rely on significant commitment from those involved, including citizens by changing their behaviour, companies by improving their energy efficiency and the banking sector through financial support. Identification of these challenges and areas for action will feed into the national debate on energy transition which began last autumn

The Influence of Organizational Climate on Work Productivity Library Staff at CISRAL Padjadjaran University

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dewi Nurma Hastuti

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Abstrak : Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui (1 Pengaruh iklim organisasi terhadap produktivitas kerja tenaga perpustakaan pada CISRAL Universitas Padjadjaran, (2 Pengaruh struktur terhadap produktivitas kerja tenaga perpustakaan pada CISRAL Universitas Padjadjaran, (3 Pengaruh standar-standar terhadap produktivitas kerja tenaga perpustakaan pada CISRAL Universitas Padjadjaran (4 Pengaruh tanggung jawab terhadap produktivitas kerja tenaga perpustakaan pada CISRAL Universitas Padjadjaran. Penelitian ini dilakukan pada 25 orang tenaga perpustakaan CISRAL Universitas Padjadjaran. Metode penelitian ini menggunakan statistik deskriptif. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa (1 Iklim organisasi memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap produktivitas kerja tenaga perpustakaan pada CISRAL Universitas Padjadjaran, (2 Struktur memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap produktivitas kerja tenaga perpustakaan pada CISRAL Universitas Padjadjaran, (3 Standar memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap produktivitas kerja tenaga perpustakaan pada CISRAL Universitas Padjadjaran, dan (4 Tanggung jawab memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap produktivitas kerja tenaga perpustakaan pada CISRAL Universitas Padjadjaran. Iklim organisasi pada CISRAL Universitas Padjadjaran dikategorikan kondusif, namun sebaiknya perpustakaan dapat menciptakan iklim organisasi yang lebih kondusif dan nyaman agar produktivitas kerja tenaga perpustakaan semakin meningkat.   Kata Kunci : Iklim Organisasi, Tenaga Perpustakaan, Produktivitas Kerja   Abstract: This study aims to find out (1 The influence of organizational climate on work productivity of librarian at Padjadjaran University, CISRAL (2 The Influences of structure on work productivity of librarian at CISRAL Padjadjaran University (3 The influence of standards on work productivity of librarian at CISRAL University of Padjadjaran (4 The influence of responsibility on work productivity librarian at CISRAL Padjadjaran University

Assessments of regional climate change and its impacts in Northern Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Reckermann, Marcus; Quante, Markus

2015-04-01

Regional climate change assessments are urgently needed to complement the big picture with regional results and scenarios of higher resolution and with relevance for local decision makers and stakeholders. A new type of assessment report originated in the original BACC report of 2008 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region) which has served as role model for other assessments published or in preparation. It represents an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). Reports of this type which are available or underway are the original BACC book (2008), the second BACC book (2015), the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment) which is expected to be published in 2016. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. An outstanding outreach aspect of these reports is the close collaboration with regional stakeholders (for the BACC reports: HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region; for the Hamburg climate report: the Hamburg city

Assessment of hi-resolution multi-ensemble statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios over Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Dairaku, K.

2017-12-01

The Asia-Pacific regions are increasingly threatened by large scale natural disasters. Growing concerns that loss and damages of natural disasters are projected to further exacerbate by climate change and socio-economic change. Climate information and services for risk assessments are of great concern. Fundamental regional climate information is indispensable for understanding changing climate and making decisions on when and how to act. To meet with the needs of stakeholders such as National/local governments, spatio-temporal comprehensive and consistent information is necessary and useful for decision making. Multi-model ensemble regional climate scenarios with 1km horizontal grid-spacing over Japan are developed by using CMIP5 37 GCMs (RCP8.5) and a statistical downscaling (Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structural differences of the GCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near future climate (2026-2050). Statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios show good performance for annual and seasonal averages for precipitation and temperature. The regional climate scenarios show systematic underestimate of extreme events such as hot days of over 35 Celsius and annual maximum daily precipitation because of the interpolation processes in the BCSD method. Each model projected different responses in near future climate because of structural differences. The most of CMIP5 37 models show qualitatively consistent increase of average and extreme temperature and precipitation. The added values of statistical/dynamical downscaling methods are also investigated for locally forced nonlinear phenomena, extreme events.

A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

2013-04-01

Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

Assessing the impact of climatic change in cold regions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parry, M L; Carter, T R [eds.

1984-01-01

The report describes the use of models to predict the consequences of global warming in particular (cold) regions. The workshop focused on two related issues: (a) the current sensitivity of ecosystems and farming systems to climatic variability, and (b) the range of impacts likely for certain changes of climate. This report addresses four broad themes: (1) the nature of the research problem; (2) methods of evaluating sensitivity to climatic variability; (3) methods of measuring the impact of climate change; and (4) how these methods might be refined. (ACR)

Awareness of Climate Change and Sustainable Development among Undergraduates from Two Selected Universities in Oyo State, Nigeria

Science.gov (United States)

Agboola, Omowunmi Sola; Emmanuel, Michael

2016-01-01

This study investigated awareness of climate change and sustainable development among undergraduates in two universities: University of Ibadan, Ibadan and Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso in Oyo State of Nigeria. This was aimed at increasing the knowledge of undergraduates on climate change and sustainable development. The study…

Different regional climatic drivers of Holocene large wildfires in boreal forests of northeastern America

Science.gov (United States)

Remy, Cécile C.; Hély, Christelle; Blarquez, Olivier; Magnan, Gabriel; Bergeron, Yves; Lavoie, Martin; Ali, Adam A.

2017-03-01

Global warming could increase climatic instability and large wildfire activity in circumboreal regions, potentially impairing both ecosystem functioning and human health. However, links between large wildfire events and climatic and/or meteorological conditions are still poorly understood, partly because few studies have covered a wide range of past climate-fire interactions. We compared palaeofire and simulated climatic data over the last 7000 years to assess causes of large wildfire events in three coniferous boreal forest regions in north-eastern Canada. These regions span an east-west cline, from a hilly region influenced by the Atlantic Ocean currently dominated by Picea mariana and Abies balsamea to a flatter continental region dominated by Picea mariana and Pinus banksiana. The largest wildfires occurred across the entire study zone between 3000 and 1000 cal. BP. In western and central continental regions these events were triggered by increases in both the fire-season length and summer/spring temperatures, while in the eastern region close to the ocean they were likely responses to hydrological (precipitation/evapotranspiration) variability. The impact of climatic drivers on fire size varied spatially across the study zone, confirming that regional climate dynamics could modulate effects of global climate change on wildfire regimes.

The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Zinyowera, Marufu C; Moss, Richard H; Watson, R. T

1998-01-01

.... The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health...

A conceptual framework for regional feedbacks in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B.

2012-04-01

Terrestrial ecosystems and climate influence each other through biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical (e.g. albedo, water fluxes) processes. These interactions might be disturbed when a climate human-induced forcing takes place (e.g. deforestation); and the ecosystem responses to the climate system might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial forcing. Research on feedbacks has been mainly based on the carbon cycle at the global scale. However, biogeophysical feedbacks might have a great impact at the local or regional scale, which is the main focus of this article. A conceptual framework, with the major interactions and processes between terrestrial ecosystems and climate, is presented to further explore feedbacks at the regional level. Four hot spots with potential changes in land use/management and climate are selected: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, diverse climate human-induced forcings and feedbacks were identified based on relevant published literature. For Europe, the positive soil moisture-evapotranspiration (ET) is important for natural vegetation during a heat wave event, while the positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback plays a more important role for droughts in the Amazon region. Agricultural expansion in SSA will depend on the impacts of the changing climate on crop yields and the adopted agro-technologies. The adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems might turn the positive soil moisture- ET feedback into a negative one. In contrast, South and Southeast Asia might face water shortage in the future, and thus turning the soil moisture-ET feedback into a positive one. Further research is needed for the major processes that affect the ultimate sign of the feedbacks, as well as for the interactions, which effect remains uncertain, such as ET-precipitation interaction. In addition, socio-economic feedbacks need to be added

Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

Science.gov (United States)

Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

2014-01-01

The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

2015-02-20

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

Regional projection of climate impact indices over the Mediterranean region

Science.gov (United States)

Casanueva, Ana; Frías, M.; Dolores; Herrera, Sixto; Bedia, Joaquín; San Martín, Daniel; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Zaninovic, Ksenija

2014-05-01

Climate Impact Indices (CIIs) are being increasingly used in different socioeconomic sectors to transfer information about climate change impacts and risks to stakeholders. CIIs are typically based on different weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, precipitation or humidity and comprise, in a single index, the relevant meteorological information for the particular impact sector (in this study wildfires and tourism). This dependence on several climate variables poses important limitations to the application of statistical downscaling techniques, since physical consistency among variables is required in most cases to obtain reliable local projections. The present study assesses the suitability of the "direct" downscaling approach, in which the downscaling method is directly applied to the CII. In particular, for illustrative purposes, we consider two popular indices used in the wildfire and tourism sectors, the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), respectively. As an example, two case studies are analysed over two representative Mediterranean regions of interest for the EU CLIM-RUN project: continental Spain for the FWI and Croatia for the PET. Results obtained with this "direct" downscaling approach are similar to those found from the application of the statistical downscaling to the individual meteorological drivers prior to the index calculation ("component" downscaling) thus, a wider range of statistical downscaling methods could be used. As an illustration, future changes in both indices are projected by applying two direct statistical downscaling methods, analogs and linear regression, to the ECHAM5 model. Larger differences were found between the two direct statistical downscaling approaches than between the direct and the component approaches with a single downscaling method. While these examples focus on particular indices and Mediterranean regions of interest for CLIM-RUN stakeholders, the same study

Partnering International Universities to Enhance Climate Literacy through Interdisciplinary, Cross-Cultural Learning

Science.gov (United States)

North, L. A.; Polk, J.; Strenecky, B.

2015-12-01

The climate change phenomenon will present complex, far-reaching challenges and opportunities, which will require leaders well-versed in interdisciplinary learning and international understanding. In an effort to develop the next generation of future leaders prepared for these challenges and opportunities, faculty from Western Kentucky University (WKU) and the University of Akureyri (UNAK), Iceland partnered to co-teach a course in climate change science and communication in Iceland. Students from both Institutions participated in the course to further enhance the cross-learning opportunity presented to the students. The 11-day course stationed out of three cities in Iceland, including Reykjavík, Vik, and Akureyri, the Icelandic gateway to the Arctic. In addition to undertaking field experiences such as hiking on glaciers, exploring ice caves, and touring geothermal plants, the group also hosted forums to discuss climate change with members of the Icelandic community, and completed The $100 Solution™ service-learning projects. A culminating point of the study abroad experience was a presentation by the students to persons from the University of Akureyri and representatives from the neighboring Icelandic communities about what they had learned about climate change science and communication during their travels. Through this experience, students were able to share their knowledge, which in turn gave them a deeper understanding of the issues they were learning throughout the study abroad program. In short, the program combined interdisciplinary learning, service-learning, and international understanding toward the goal of preparing the leaders of tomorrow with the skills to address climate change challenges.

Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudokas, Jason; Miller, Paul J; Trail, Marcus A; Russell, Armistead G

2015-04-21

We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.

Social Inclusion: Universities and Regional Development

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Bruce

2011-01-01

At a time when the OECD (2007) is advocating more local engagement for higher education institutions, this study looks at a number of community initiatives in Australia where local universities have played a key role. All were studied as part of the PASCAL Universities and Regional Engagement (PURE) project, which involves a total of 19 regions…

Quantitative Holocene climatic reconstructions for the lower Yangtze region of China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jianyong; Dodson, John; Yan, Hong; Wang, Weiming; Innes, James B.; Zong, Yongqiang; Zhang, Xiaojian; Xu, Qinghai; Ni, Jian; Lu, Fengyan

2018-02-01

Quantitative proxy-based and high-resolution palaeoclimatic datasets are scarce for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River (LYR) basin. This region is in a transitional vegetation zone which is climatologically sensitive; and as a birthplace for prehistorical civilization in China, it is important to understand how palaeoclimatic dynamics played a role in affecting cultural development in the region. We present a pollen-based and regionally-averaged Holocene climatic twin-dataset for mean total annual precipitation (PANN) and mean annual temperature (TANN) covering the last 10,000 years for the LYR region. This is based on the technique of weighted averaging-partial least squares regression to establish robust calibration models for obtaining reliable climatic inferences. The pollen-based reconstructions generally show an early Holocene climatic optimum with both abundant monsoonal rainfall and warm thermal conditions, and a declining pattern of both PANN and TANN values in the middle to late Holocene. The main driving forces behind the Holocene climatic changes in the LYR area are likely summer solar insolation associated with tropical or subtropical macro-scale climatic circulations such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Regional multi-proxy comparisons indicate that the Holocene variations in precipitation and temperature for the LYR region display an in-phase relationship with other related proxy records from southern monsoonal China and the Indian monsoon-influenced regions, but are inconsistent with the Holocene moisture or temperature records from northern monsoonal China and the westerly-dominated region in northwestern China. Overall, our comprehensive palaeoclimatic dataset and models may be significant tools for understanding the Holocene Asian monsoonal evolution and for anticipating its future dynamics in eastern Asia.

Analysis of the Motivation and Work Climate of University Teaching Staff

Science.gov (United States)

González-Tirados, R. M.

2012-04-01

Resources are beginning to consider the staff as the major asset in Organisations. The issues that can favour or prejudice the levels of motivation are multiple. Therefore, in this study, we have attempted to show what issues have the greatest impact. This research aims to study the level of motivation of teaching staff in the Universities in Madrid and analyse the different factors that affect performance at work in the roles of teacher, researcher and manager. It also aims to discover whether or not motivation influences a teacher's everyday work and which variables affect the university work "climate" and other issues involved. For this study, 7696 questionnaires were sent to teachers at the 13 Universities in the Madrid Region. A total of 886 opinions from 11 Universities were returned. The results are presented in the work.

Regional Development and the European Consortium of Innovative Universities.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Saskia Loer; Kokkeler, Ben; van der Sijde, P. C.

2002-01-01

The European Consortium of Innovative Universities is a network that shares information not just among universities but with affiliated incubators, research parks, and other regional entities. The learning network contributes to regional development.(JOW)

Criteria for selecting a CO2/climate change region of study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cushman, R.; Easterling, W.; Rosenberg, N.; Malone, T.; Edmonds, J.; Scott, M.; Stoke, G.

1989-01-01

This effort has three near-term goals: (1) to develop robust methods of analysis including the analysis of uncertainty; (2) to develop information systems to support CO 2 /climate change analysis; and (3) to develop channels of communication among researchers and between researchers and parties potentially affected by CO 2 /climate change. Initially, the program will focus on a single region of the United States, employ a historical analog climate, and analyze the interactions of all of the resources resident within that region as they might evolve under current conditions and under evolving CO 2 /climate change over the next 50 years. Five elements of the program will address the issues of: Analysis, Information Systems, Uncertainty, Knowledge Transfer, and Coordination. This paper will give special attention to the analytical framework and in particular to the criteria for selecting a region for study. 19 refs., 2 figs

Readying Health Services for Climate Change: A Policy Framework for Regional Development

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Climate change presents the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century. However, many public health leaders feel ill equipped to face the challenges of climate change and have been unable to make climate change a priority in service development. I explore how to achieve a regionally responsive whole-of-systems approach to climate change in the key operational areas of a health service: service governance and culture, service delivery, workforce development, asset management, and financing. The relative neglect of implementation science means that policymakers need to be proactive about sourcing and developing models and processes to make health services ready for climate change. Health research funding agencies should urgently prioritize applied, regionally responsive health services research for a future of climate change. PMID:21421953

Readying health services for climate change: a policy framework for regional development.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Erica

2011-05-01

Climate change presents the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century. However, many public health leaders feel ill equipped to face the challenges of climate change and have been unable to make climate change a priority in service development. I explore how to achieve a regionally responsive whole-of-systems approach to climate change in the key operational areas of a health service: service governance and culture, service delivery, workforce development, asset management, and financing. The relative neglect of implementation science means that policymakers need to be proactive about sourcing and developing models and processes to make health services ready for climate change. Health research funding agencies should urgently prioritize applied, regionally responsive health services research for a future of climate change.

Holocene climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon region

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wenxiang; Niu, Jie; Ming, Qingzhong; Shi, Zhengtao; Lei, Guoliang; Huang, Linpei; Long, Xian'e.; Chang, Fengqin

2018-05-01

Climatic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon (ASWM) during the Holocene have become a topic of recent studies. It is important to understand the patterns and causes of Holocene climatic changes and their relationship with global changes. Based on the climate proxies and wavelet analysis of Lugu Lake in the ASWM region, the climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the ASWM region during the Holocene have been reconstructed with a high-precision chronology. The results indicate the intensification of ASWM began to increase with Northern Hemisphere low-latitude solar insolation (LSI) and solar activity during the early Holocene, and gradually decreased during the late Holocene, exhibiting an apparent synchrony with numerous records of ASWM region. Meanwhile, an apparent 1000-a quasi-periodic signal is present in the environment proxies, and it demonstrates that the environmental change in the ASWM region has been driven mainly by LSI and solar activity.

Effective single scattering albedo estimation using regional climate model

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Tesfaye, M

2011-09-01

Full Text Available In this study, by modifying the optical parameterization of Regional Climate model (RegCM), the authors have computed and compared the Effective Single-Scattering Albedo (ESSA) which is a representative of VIS spectral region. The arid, semi...

The organizational climate in university libraries: a study of sectoral libraries of the Federal University of Pernambuco

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andréa Maria da Silva

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Objective. This study investigates the perceptions of organizational climate of the employees working in the sector libraries at the Federal University of Pernambuco, in relation to leadership, communication, motivation and teamwork. Method. To achieve the proposed objective a survey was conducted with a questionnaire being answered by forty employees, viewing information on the organizational climate experienced in the sector libraries. Results. The main results of the survey indicated a predominantly satisfactory organizational climate in the analyzed libraries, considering that the organizational atmosphere proved to be sound, mingled with leaders and their teams, open to dialogue with professionals conducive to exercise a job competently. Conclusions. It is understood that the study of organizational climate in academic libraries is of paramount importência in order libraries are living, social and active organizations composed of human, technological, material, financial, which together need to perform with excellence the organizational climate

Regional and historical factors supplement current climate in shaping global forest canopy height

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Jian; Nielsen, Scott; Mao, Lingfeng

2016-01-01

on Light Detection and Ranging-derived maximum forest canopy height (Hmax) to test hypotheses relating Hmax to current climate (water availability, ambient energy and water–energy dynamics), regional evolutionary and biogeographic history, historical climate change, and human disturbance. We derived Hmax...... biogeographic regions, supporting the role of regional evolutionary and biogeographic history in structuring broad-scale patterns in canopy height. Furthermore, there were divergent relationships between climate and Hmax between the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, consistent with historical evolutionary...... contingencies modulating these relationships. Historical climate change was also related to Hmax, albeit not as strongly, with shorter canopy heights where late-Quaternary climate has been less stable. In contrast, human disturbance was only weakly related to Hmax at the scale (55 km) examined here. Synthesis...

The Effect of Diversity Climate Perception on Alienation of Students to University

Science.gov (United States)

Kurtulmus, Mehmet

2016-01-01

The aim of this research is to examine the effect of diversity climate perception on alienation of students to university. The research was carried out with relational survey model. 333 undergraduate students in Faculty of Education, Medical, and Faculty of Theology of Dicle University constituted the participant group. Research data were…

Ocean climate indicators: A monitoring inventory and plan for tracking climate change in the north-central California coast and ocean region

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, Benet; Higgason, Kelley; Suchanek, Tom; Largier, John; Stachowicz, Jay; Allen, Sarah; Bograd, Steven; Breen, R.; Gellerman, Holly; Hill, Tessa; Jahncke, Jaime; Johnson, Rebecca L.; Lonhart, Steve I.; Morgan, Steven; Wilkerson, Frances; Roletto, Jan

2013-01-01

The impacts of climate change, defined as increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon dioxide and associated increases in average global temperature and oceanic acidity, have been observed both globally and on regional scales, such as in the North-central California coast and ocean, a region that extends from Point Arena to Point Año Nuevo and includes the Pacific coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area. Because of the high economic and ecological value of the region’s marine environment, the Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary (GFNMS) and other agencies and organizations have recognized the need to evaluate and plan for climate change impacts. Climate change indicators can be developed on global, regional, and site-specific spatial scales, and they provide information about the presence and potential impacts of climate change. While indicators exist for the nation and for the state of California as a whole, no system of ocean climate indicators exist that specifically consider the unique characteristics of the California coast and ocean region. To that end, GFNMS collaborated with over 50 regional, federal, and state natural resource managers, research scientists, and other partners to develop a set of 2 ocean climate indicators specific to this region. A smaller working group of 13 regional partners developed monitoring goals, objectives, strategies, and activities for the indicators and recommended selected species for biological indicators, resulting in the Ocean Climate Indicators Monitoring Inventory and Plan. The working group considered current knowledge of ongoing monitoring, feasibility of monitoring, costs, and logistics in selecting monitoring activities and selected species.

The Health Effects of Climate Change in the WHO European Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanja Wolf

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The evidence of observed health effects as well as projections of future health risks from climate variability and climate change is growing. This article summarizes new knowledge on these health risks generated since the IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4 was published in 2007, with a specific focus on the 53 countries comprising the WHO European Region. Many studies on the effects of weather, climate variability, and climate change on health in the European Region have been published since 2007, increasing the level of certainty with regard to already known health threats. Exposures to temperature extremes, floods, storms, and wildfires have effects on cardiovascular and respiratory health. Climate- and weather-related health risks from worsening food and water safety and security, poor air quality, and ultraviolet radiation exposure as well as increasing allergic diseases, vector- and rodent-borne diseases, and other climate-sensitive health outcomes also warrant attention and policy action to protect human health.

A synthesis of regional climate change simulations - A Scandinavian perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, J. H.; Räinsänen, J.; Iversen, T.

2001-01-01

Four downscaling experiments of regional climate change for the Nordic countries have been conducted with three different regional climate models (RCMs). A short synthesis of the outcome of the suite of experiments is presented as an ensemble, reflecting the different driving atmosphere-ocean...... general circulation model (AOGCM) conditions, RCM model resolution and domain size, and choice of emission scenarios. This allows the sources of uncertainties in the projections to be assessed. At the same time analysis of the climate change signal for temperature and precipitation over the period 1990......-2050 reveals strong similarities. In particular, all experiments in the suite simulate changes in the precipitation distribution towards a higher frequency of heavy precipitation....

Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Phipps, Steven J.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Davin, Edouard L.; Donat, Markus G.; Hirschi, Martin; Lenton, Andrew; Wilhelm, Micah; Kravitz, Ben

2018-02-01

Greenhouse gas emissions urgently need to be reduced. Even with a step up in mitigation, the goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 °C remains challenging. Consequences of missing these goals are substantial, especially on regional scales. Because progress in the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions has been slow, climate engineering schemes are increasingly being discussed. But global schemes remain controversial and have important shortcomings. A reduction of global mean temperature through global-scale management of solar radiation could lead to strong regional disparities and affect rainfall patterns. On the other hand, active management of land radiative effects on a regional scale represents an alternative option of climate engineering that has been little discussed. Regional land radiative management could help to counteract warming, in particular hot extremes in densely populated and important agricultural regions. Regional land radiative management also raises some ethical issues, and its efficacy would be limited in time and space, depending on crop growing periods and constraints on agricultural management. But through its more regional focus and reliance on tested techniques, regional land radiative management avoids some of the main shortcomings associated with global radiation management. We argue that albedo-related climate benefits of land management should be considered more prominently when assessing regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation as well as ecosystem services.

The regionalization of climate scenarios: towards impact studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cariolle, D.

1999-01-01

This article describes the different types of climate numerical models and their use to obtain scenarios for climate change due to the greenhouse gas increase. Results from global or meso-scale models are given. They illustrate the existing ways of representing climatic conditions at global and regional scales. Combined with statistical approaches based for example on the techniques of analogues, their use gives a coherent strategy going from global scale numerical simulations to the study of impacts at a local scale. In the future the increase of computer power should allow a better description of the small processes and a wider range of impact studies on natural ecosystems and various economic sectors. The results of these studies will be very useful to define a coherent policy in response to observed or predicted climate changes. (author)

Regional climate change scenarios for México

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez-Salvador, Begoña; Sánchez, O.; Gay, C.

In this paper we present the regional climate change scenarios that were used for the assessment of the potential impacts in México on agriculture, livestock, forestry, hydrological resources as well as on human settlements and biodiversity. Those studies were developed for the Fourth Communication

Application of remote sensing for analyzing climatic variation in the boreal and subarctic regions of Canada and for validating the Canadian Regional Climate Model; Application de la teledetection a l'analyse de la variabilite climatique des regions boreales et subarctiques du Canada et a la validation du modele regional canadien du climat

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fillol, E.J.

2003-07-01

This study examined climate variations over the past few decades as well as the tools used to model future climate. The study included an interpretation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) time series data at the continental spatial scale. Data collected over a period of two decades was used to study and monitor Canada's boreal ecosystem activity and to observe recent climatic change. The study involved the use of classical parameters associated with remote sensing in the visible and thermal infrared spectra for vegetation activity and land-surface temperatures. Problems associated with instrumental drift and inter-satellite adjustment were minimized by choosing indicators for the length of the growing season, annual growing degree-days and ecotone displacement. Climate variations over the past twenty years were compared with daily meteorological data of temperature, precipitation and snow cover. Rapid cycle climatic phenomena such as the El Nino and La Nina appear to have influenced the central region of Canada. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation also influenced the climate regime of Canada and annual growing degree-days. Indicators for vegetation activity and land-surface temperature suggest that a North-South disparity exists over Canada. A warming trend with an increased growing season was observed for the region north of the 55 parallel, while southern regions appear to be cooling. This study also used remote sensing to validate the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) through a comparison of ground temperature values modelled by the CRCM with composite satellite temperatures. The results indicate a small under-estimation of the CRCM ground temperature during the summer due to an overestimation of the precipitation rate. It was concluded that climate models such as the CRCM are useful in making reliable predictions of future climate trends.

The regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.-P. Pietikäinen

2012-11-01

Full Text Available REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes most of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM is coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. On the other hand, REMO-HAM does not include an online coupled aerosol-radiation nor a secondary organic aerosol module. In this work, we evaluate the model and compare the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites were chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50 × 50 km² and 10 × 10 km². Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM is in reasonable agreement with the measured values. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. Since we did not use activation nor kinetic nucleation for the boundary layer, the total number concentrations are somewhat underestimated. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we show that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

Universities Potential Role in Local and Regional Development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moesby, Egon; Rolim, Cassio

2013-01-01

Purpose: The paper will describe experiences from Aalborg University in Denmark on ways to support cooperation between the University and regional civic/business. Design/Methodology: Regional development is exceedingly focused in the world; and as growth is dependent on specialised knowledge...... and highly skilled and competent staff, it could be anticipated that universities should play a key role in facilitating such growth and development. At Aalborg University, such cooperation is taking place, and this paper sums up the practices and experiences gained therefrom. Findings: Universities have...... been and maybe still are seen as bodies focusing on know-how; however, they are now focusing on technology transfer, knowledge transfer and knowledge exchange, and maybe also on co-designing. From such beginnings co-operation can, and in many cases has, further developed into formal partnerships...

A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kravitz, Ben; Rasch, Philip J; Singh, Balwinder; Yoon, Jin-Ho; MacMartin, Douglas G; Robock, Alan; Ricke, Katharine L; Cole, Jason N S; Curry, Charles L; Irvine, Peter J; Ji, Duoying; Moore, John C; Keith, David W; Egill Kristjánsson, Jón; Muri, Helene; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Yang, Shuting

2014-01-01

Global-scale solar geoengineering is the deliberate modification of the climate system to offset some amount of anthropogenic climate change by reducing the amount of incident solar radiation at the surface. These changes to the planetary energy budget result in differential regional climate effects. For the first time, we quantitatively evaluate the potential for regional disparities in a multi-model context using results from a model experiment that offsets the forcing from a quadrupling of CO 2 via reduction in solar irradiance. We evaluate temperature and precipitation changes in 22 geographic regions spanning most of Earth's continental area. Moderate amounts of solar reduction (up to 85% of the amount that returns global mean temperatures to preindustrial levels) result in regional temperature values that are closer to preindustrial levels than an un-geoengineered, high CO 2 world for all regions and all models. However, in all but one model, there is at least one region for which no amount of solar reduction can restore precipitation toward its preindustrial value. For most metrics considering simultaneous changes in both variables, temperature and precipitation values in all regions are closer to the preindustrial climate for a moderate amount of solar reduction than for no solar reduction. (letter)

Southwest Regional Climate Hub and California Subsidiary Hub assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Emile Elias; Caiti Steele; Kris Havstad; Kerri Steenwerth; Jeanne Chambers; Helena Deswood; Amber Kerr; Albert Rango; Mark Schwartz; Peter Stine; Rachel Steele

2015-01-01

This report is a joint effort of the Southwest Regional Climate Hub and the California Subsidiary Hub (Sub Hub). The Southwest Regional Climate Hub covers Arizona, California, Hawai‘i and the U.S. affiliated Pacific Islands, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah and contains vast areas of western rangeland, forests, and high-value specialty crops (Figure 1). The California Sub...

Combining super-ensembles and statistical emulation to improve a regional climate and vegetation model

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Sarah, S.; McNeall, D. J.; Mote, P.; Betts, R. A.; Wallom, D.

2017-12-01

Changing regional patterns of surface temperature, precipitation, and humidity may cause ecosystem-scale changes in vegetation, altering the distribution of trees, shrubs, and grasses. A changing vegetation distribution, in turn, alters the albedo, latent heat flux, and carbon exchanged with the atmosphere with resulting feedbacks onto the regional climate. However, a wide range of earth-system processes that affect the carbon, energy, and hydrologic cycles occur at sub grid scales in climate models and must be parameterized. The appropriate parameter values in such parameterizations are often poorly constrained, leading to uncertainty in predictions of how the ecosystem will respond to changes in forcing. To better understand the sensitivity of regional climate to parameter selection and to improve regional climate and vegetation simulations, we used a large perturbed physics ensemble and a suite of statistical emulators. We dynamically downscaled a super-ensemble (multiple parameter sets and multiple initial conditions) of global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3p with the land-surface scheme MOSES2 and dynamic vegetation module TRIFFID. We simultaneously perturbed land surface parameters relating to the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and atmosphere in a large super-ensemble of regional climate simulations over the western US. Statistical emulation was used as a computationally cost-effective tool to explore uncertainties in interactions. Regions of parameter space that did not satisfy observational constraints were eliminated and an ensemble of parameter sets that reduce regional biases and span a range of plausible interactions among earth system processes were selected. This study demonstrated that by combining super-ensemble simulations with statistical emulation, simulations of regional climate could be improved while simultaneously accounting for a range of plausible land

Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment: Building a Framework to Track Physical and Social Indicators of Climate Change Across Pacific Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Grecni, Z. N.; Keener, V. W.

2016-12-01

Assessments inform regional and local climate change governance and provide the critical scientific basis for U.S. climate policy. Despite the centrality of scientific information to public discourse and decision making, comprehensive assessments of climate change drivers, impacts, and the vulnerability of human and ecological systems at regional or local scales are often conducted on an ad hoc basis. Methods for sustained assessment and communication of scientific information are diverse and nascent. The Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) is a collaborative effort to assess climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the Hawaiian archipelago and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). In 2012, PIRCA released the first comprehensive report summarizing the state of scientific knowledge about climate change in the region as a technical input to the U.S. National Climate Assessment. A multi-method evaluation of PIRCA outputs and delivery revealed that the vast majority of key stakeholders view the report as extremely credible and use it as a resource. The current study will present PIRCA's approach to establishing physical and social indicators to track on an ongoing basis, starting with the Republic of the Marshall Islands as an initial location of focus for providing a cross-sectoral indicators framework. Identifying and tracking useful indicators is aimed at sustaining the process of knowledge coproduction with decision makers who seek to better understand the climate variability and change and its impacts on Pacific Island communities.

Late Cenozoic climate and the phylogenetic structure of regional conifer floras worldwide

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eiserhardt, W.L.; Borchsenius, F.; Sandel, B.; Kissling, W.D.; Svenning, J.-C.

2015-01-01

Aim Using conifers as a model system, we aim to test four hypotheses. H1: the processes that shape the phylogenetic structure of regional species assemblages depend on climate. H2: apparent effects of current climate can be equally well explained by past climate. H3: strong Quaternary climate

Ethical concerns and contributions in response to climate change and the links to well-being: a study of university students in The Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

El Zoghbi, Mona Betour; El Ansari, Walid

2014-06-01

This study explored the concerns and contributions of university students in response to the ethical dimensions of climate change, and the implications for their well-being. The study focused on university students as leaders of future society while facing complex environmental and socio-economic challenges. A total of 8 focus groups (FG) were conducted (66 participants from over 10 different universities across The Netherlands). In addition, 9 in-depth interviews with Dutch university students from different academic backgrounds, and 16 interviews with Dutch key informants in the environment, youth and public health fields were undertaken. The first author also attended (as participant-observer) three major events themed around youth and environmental issues across different regions in The Netherlands. University students in the Netherlands are mostly concerned about the increasing social and economic inequalities between the global North and South, and the implications for impoverished and uneducated communities. Participants raised concerns over the transfer of materialistic value systems and unsustainable practices from developed to developing countries. The participants' main contributions in response to climate change were largely driven by feelings of guilt and responsibility, an ecological worldview, and desire to play a positive role in society. Establishing formal youth platforms across academic, civic and political institutions could provide legitimate and empowering opportunities for university students to participate in consultations and debates of future environmental policies and development strategies. Such platforms could enhance the agency and well-being of university students for addressing their concerns over existing climate inequalities and other ethical dilemmas.

The Impact Snow Albedo Feedback over Mountain Regions as Examined through High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Experiments over the Rocky Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Letcher, Theodore

As the climate warms, the snow albedo feedback (SAF) will play a substantial role in shaping the climate response of mid-latitude mountain regions with transient snow cover. One such region is the Rocky Mountains of the western United States where large snow packs accumulate during the winter and persist throughout the spring. In this dissertation, the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) configured as a regional climate model is used to investigate the role of the SAF in determining the regional climate response to forced anthropogenic climate change. The regional effects of climate change are investigated by using the pseudo global warming (PGW) framework, which is an experimental configuration in a which a mean climate perturbation is added to the boundary forcing of a regional model, thus preserving the large-scale circulation entering the region through the model boundaries and isolating the mesoscale climate response. Using this framework, the impact of the SAF on the regional energetics and atmospheric dynamics is examined and quantified. Linear feedback analysis is used to quantify the strength of the SAF over the Headwaters region of the Colorado Rockies for a series of high-resolution PGW experiments. This technique is used to test sensitivity of the feedback strength to model resolution and land surface model. Over the Colorado Rockies, and integrated over the entire spring season, the SAF strength is largely insensitive to model resolution, however there are more substantial differences on the sub-seasonal (monthly) timescale. In contrast, the SAF strength over this region is very sensitive to choice of land surface model. These simulations are also used to investigate how spatial and diurnal variability in warming caused by the SAF influences the dynamics of thermally driven mountain-breeze circulations. It is shown that, the SAF causes stronger daytime mountain-breeze circulations by increasing the warming on the mountains slopes thus enhancing

Climatic change in the Great Plains region of Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rizzo, B.

1991-01-01

Implications of global warming to Canada's Great Plains region are discussed, with reference to the climate predictions of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model under a two times atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration scenario. Two sets of climate variables for a geographic area located in the Great Plains are tabulated, for the current (1951-1980) climate normals and under the doubled carbon dioxide scenario. Simple univariate statistics were calculated for the two areas, for the variables of mean annual temperature, mean summer temperature, mean winter temperature, mean July temperature, mean growing season temperature, total annual precipitation, total summer precipitation, total winter precipitation, and total growing season precipitation. Under the GISS scenario, temperature values are on average 4 degree C higher than 1951-1980 normals, while precipitation remains about the same. Locations of ecoclimatic regions are graphed for the whole of Canada. 1 fig., 1 tab

Initializing decadal climate predictions over the North Atlantic region

Science.gov (United States)

Matei, Daniela Mihaela; Pohlmann, Holger; Jungclaus, Johann; Müller, Wolfgang; Haak, Helmuth; Marotzke, Jochem

2010-05-01

Decadal climate prediction aims to predict the internally-generated decadal climate variability in addition to externally-forced climate change signal. In order to achieve this it is necessary to start the predictions from the current climate state. In this study we investigate the forecast skill of the North Atlantic decadal climate predictions using two different ocean initialization strategies. First we apply an assimilation of ocean synthesis data provided by the GECCO project (Köhl and Stammer, 2008) as initial conditions for the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Hindcast experiments are then performed over the period 1952-2001. An alternative approach is one in which the subsurface ocean temperature and salinity are diagnosed from an ensemble of ocean model runs forced by the NCEP-NCAR atmospheric reanalyzes for the period 1948-2007, then nudge into the coupled model to produce initial conditions for the hindcast experiments. An anomaly coupling scheme is used in both approaches to avoid the hindcast drift and the associated initial shock. Differences between the two assimilation approaches are discussed by comparing them with the observational data in key regions and processes. We asses the skill of the initialized decadal hindcast experiments against the prediction skill of the non-initialized hindcasts simulation. We obtain an overview of the regions with the highest predictability from the regional distribution of the anomaly correlation coefficients and RMSE for the SAT. For the first year the hindcast skill is increased over almost all ocean regions in the NCEP-forced approach. This increase in the hindcast skill for the 1 year lead time is somewhat reduced in the GECCO approach. At lead time 5yr and 10yr, the skill enhancement is still found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions. We also consider the potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Nordic Seas Overflow by comparing the predicted values to

A Regional Observatory for Producers' Climate Change Adaptation ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2016-04-22

Apr 22, 2016 ... A Regional Observatory for Producers' Climate Change Adaptation in Thies, Senegal ... The Adaptation Insights series is a joint publication of the International Development Research Centre and the Centre for ... Innovation.

Assessment of Climate Air Energy Regional Schemes in Burgundy and in Franche-Comte - Intermediate review on June 27, 2017. Burgundy Climate Air Energy Regional Scheme. Project, Scheme, Appendix to the SRCAE - Wind regional scheme of Burgundy, synthesis, opinion of the Burgundy CESER. Territorial Climate Energy Plan - Program of actions, Plenary session of the November 25, 2013. Climate Air Energy Regional Scheme - Franche-Comte SRCAE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-09-01

A first report proposes an assessment of the various aspects addressed by the Climate Air Energy Regional Schemes (SRCAE) of Burgundy and Franche-Comte: global aspects, and aspects related to adaptation to climate change, to air quality, to land planning, to the building sector, to mobility, to good transports, to agriculture, to forest, to industry and craft, to renewable energies, and to ecological responsibility. A synthetic presentation of the Burgundy scheme is proposed, and then an extended version which contains a description of the situation, an analysis of the regional potential, and a definition of orientations for the same above-mentioned aspects. A document more particularly addresses wind energy: role of wind energy in the energy mix of the region, role of small installations, wind energy potential, challenges and constraints (heritage and landscapes, natural environment, technical constraints), identification of areas of interest for wind energy projects, qualitative objectives. Documents published by the regional economic, social and environmental Council (CESER) of Burgundy are then proposed: a contribution to the Climate Air Energy Regional Scheme, a discussion and a presentation of a program of actions for the Climate Energy Territorial Plan (a large number of sheets of presentation of actions is proposed). The last document presents the Franche-Comte regional scheme: overview of regional knowledge on climate, air quality and environmental issues, challenges and potential per activity sector (transports and development, building, agriculture, industry, renewable energy production), definition of orientations and objectives for axes of action

Natural responses to Quaternary climatic change in the Nevada Test Site region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gibson, J.D.

1993-01-01

Migration of hazardous contaminants within geologic settings depends on natural processes. Climatic fluctuations can affect the magnitudes and rates of many of these processes. In any long-term environmental evaluation of natural processes, responses to climatic change must be considered. Four generalized categories of natural responses to Quaternary climatic change are recognized for the Nevada Test Site (NTS) region of southwestern Nevada and adjacent California: (1) biologic, (2) geomorphic, (3) hydrologic (including surface and subsurface) and (4) pedologic/diagenetic. Specific examples that correspond to the four categories illustrate the broad range of complex natural processes the are affected by climatic change. These responses dictate the potential effects of climatic change on contaminant transport, effects that are being examined by existing and planned environmental-restoration and waste-management programs within the region. Regulatory requirements for many of these programs include long-term (>10,000-year) waste isolation because of radiologic components. The purpose here is not to be exhaustive in documenting all known natural responses to climatic change in the NTS region, but rather to give a flavor of the scope of interdisciplinary and interrelated fields of Quaternary science that must be considered in evaluating the possible effects of climatic change on long-term environmental programs

Near-surface wind pattern in regional climate projections over the broader Adriatic region

Science.gov (United States)

Belušić, Andreina; Telišman Prtenjak, Maja; Güttler, Ivan; Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Schär, Christoph

2017-04-01

The Adriatic region is characterized by the complex coastline, strong topographic gradients and specific wind regimes. This represents excellent test area for the latest generation of the regional climate models (RCMs) applied over the European domain. The most famous wind along the Adriatic coast is bora, which due to its strength, has a strong impact on all types of human activities in the Adriatic region. The typical bora wind is a severe gusty downslope flow perpendicular to the mountains. Besides bora, in the Adriatic region, typical winds are sirocco (mostly during the wintertime) and sea/land breezes (dominantly in the warm part of the year) as a part of the regional Mediterranean wind system. Thus, it is substantial to determine future changes in the wind filed characteristics (e.g., changes in strength and frequencies). The first step was the evaluation of a suite of ten EURO- and MED-CORDEX models (at 50 km and 12.5 km resolution), and two additional high resolution models from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich (ETHZ, at 12.5 km and 2.2. km resolution) in the present climate. These results provided a basis for the next step where wind field features, in an ensemble of RCMs forced by global climate models (GCMs) in historical and future runs are examined. Our aim is to determine the influence of the particular combination of RCMs and GCMs, horizontal resolution and emission scenario on the future changes in the near-surface wind field. The analysis reveals strong sensitivity of the simulated wind flow and its statistics to both season and location analyzed, to the horizontal resolution of the RCM and on the choice of the particular GCM that provides boundary conditions.

Energy Choices and Climate Change: A New Interactive Feature on Windows to the Universe

Science.gov (United States)

Gardiner, L. S.; Russell, R. M.; Ward, D.; Johnson, R. M.; Henderson, S.; Foster, S. Q.

2009-12-01

We have developed a new, self-paced online module to foster understanding of how choices made about energy production and energy use affect greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. The module, entitled “Energy Choices and Climate Change” is available on Windows to the Universe (www.windows.ucar.edu), an extensive educational Web site used by over 20 million people each year. “Energy Choices and Climate Change” provides a new way to look at issues related to energy and climate change, emphasizing the climate implications of the choices we make. “Energy Choices and Climate Change” allows users to explore two different scenarios through which they make decisions about energy production or use. In the “Ruler of the World” scenario, the user is given the authority to make decisions about the mix of energy sources that will be used worldwide with the aim of reducing emissions while meeting global energy demand and monitoring costs and societal implications. In “The Joules Family” scenario, the user makes decisions about how to change the way a hypothetical family of four uses energy at home and for transportation with the aim of reducing the family’s carbon emissions and fossil fuel use while keeping costs less than long-term savings. While this module is intended for a general public audience, an associated teacher’s guide provides support for secondary educators using the module with students. Windows to the Universe is a project of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Office of Education and Outreach. Funding for the Energy Choices and Climate Change online module was provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

2014-12-01

Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes

Implications of expected climate change in the Mediterranean Region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeftic, L. [United Nations Environment Programme, Athens (Greece). Mediterranean Coordinating Unit

1993-09-01

A Task Team was established in 1987 with the objective of preparing a Mediterranean regional overview of the implications of climate change for coastal, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, as well as for socio-economic structures and activities. The paper presents a summary of the results of the first phase (1987-1989) of the work of the Task Team. Assuming a temperature rise of 1.5{degree}C by the year 2025, land degradation would increase, water resources decline, agricultural production would decline, and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems could be damaged. Impacts of climatic change when combined with the greater impacts of non-climatic factors (e.g. population increases, development plans) would increase the probability of catastrophic events and hasten their occurrence. Case studies on six sites are to be finalised by the end of 1992. Despite the high quality of the Task Team`s study the impact of its work on national authorities and international bodies was below expectation. A specific regional scenario on climate change in the Mediterranean Basin due to global warming was developed following the Task Team`s recommendation. A summary of the approach and results is presented. 25 refs., 2 figs.

Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

2016-01-01

We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B. J.; van Minnen, J. G.

2012-04-01

Ecosystem responses to a changing climate and human-induced climate forcings (e.g. deforestation) might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial climate response. Feedbacks may include the biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical feedbacks (e.g. albedo and hydrological cycle). Here, we first review the most important feedbacks and put them into the context of a conceptual framework, including the major processes and interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climate. We explore potential regional feedbacks in four hot spots with pronounced potential changes in land-use/management and local climate: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, the relevant human-induced climate forcings and feedbacks were identified based on published literature. When evapotranspiration is limited by a soil water deficit, heat waves in Europe are amplified (positive soil moisture-temperature feedback). Drought events in the Amazon lead to further rainfall reduction when water recycling processes are affected (positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback). In SSA, the adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems can modulate the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback. In contrast, future water shortage in South and Southeast Asia can turn the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback into a positive one. Further research including advanced modeling strategies is needed to isolate the dominant processes affecting the strength and sign of the feedbacks. In addition, the socio-economic dimension needs to be considered in the ecosystems-climate system to include the essential role of human decisions on land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). In this context, enhanced integration between Earth System (ES) and Integrated Assessment (IA) modeling communities is strongly recommended.

Application of regional climate models to the Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas.

Science.gov (United States)

Dimri, A P; Yasunari, T; Wiltshire, A; Kumar, P; Mathison, C; Ridley, J; Jacob, D

2013-12-01

The Himalayan region is characterized by pronounced topographic heterogeneity and land use variability from west to east, with a large variation in regional climate patterns. Over the western part of the region, almost one-third of the annual precipitation is received in winter during cyclonic storms embedded in westerlies, known locally as the western disturbance. In the present paper, the regional winter climate over the western Himalayas is analyzed from simulations produced by two regional climate models (RCMs) forced with large-scale fields from ERA-Interim. The analysis was conducted by the composition of contrasting (wet and dry) winter precipitation years. The findings showed that RCMs could simulate the regional climate of the western Himalayas and represent the atmospheric circulation during extreme precipitation years in accordance with observations. The results suggest the important role of topography in moisture fluxes, transport and vertical flows. Dynamical downscaling with RCMs represented regional climates at the mountain or even event scale. However, uncertainties of precipitation scale and liquid-solid precipitation ratios within RCMs are still large for the purposes of hydrological and glaciological studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performativity Double Standards and the Sexual Orientation Climate at a Southern Liberal Arts University.

Science.gov (United States)

Byron, Reginald A; Lowe, Maria R; Billingsley, Brianna; Tuttle, Nathan

2017-01-01

This study employs quantitative and qualitative methods to examine how heterosexual, bisexual, and gay students rate and describe a Southern, religiously affiliated university's sexual orientation climate. Using qualitative data, queer theory, and the concept tyranny of sexualized spaces, we explain why non-heterosexual students have more negative perceptions of the university climate than heterosexual male students, in both bivariate and multivariate analyses. Although heterosexual students see few problems with the campus sexual orientation climate, bisexual men and women describe being challenged on the authenticity of their orientation, and lesbian and, to a greater extent, gay male students report harassment and exclusion in a number of settings. These distinct processes are influenced by broader heteronormative standards. We also shed much-needed light on how gendered sexual performativity double standards within an important campus microclimate (fraternity parties) contribute to creating a tyrannical sexualized space and negatively affect overall campus climate perceptions.

Modifications in climate suitability for wine production of Romanian wine regions as a result of climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irimia Liviu Mihai

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to reveal the shifts in climate suitability for wine production affecting Romanian wine growing regions. For this, we analyzed the spatial distribution over Romanian territory of the oenoclimate aptitude index (IAOe for the 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2013 time periods. The IAOe has been calculated based on gridded data at 10 × 10 km resolution of average daily temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration between 1961–2013, originating from about 150 weather stations across Romanian territory and recorded in the ROCADA database. The study reveals: northward shifts and to higher altitudes of suitability for wine production; the appearance of new areas suitable for wine production; the expansion or the shrinkage of the current areas suitable for wine production; shifts in classes of suitability for wine production in the current wine regions and appearance of premises of replacing their specific varieties and traditional wine type production; the tendency to level climate suitability at regional scale by diminishing suitability for white wines and replacing it with climate suitability for red wines. The study provides a solid support for developing strategies to adapt Romanian viticulture to climate change.

Twitter Analytics: Are the U.S. Coastal Regions Prepared for Climate Change in 2017?

Science.gov (United States)

Singleton, S. L.; Kumar, S.

2017-12-01

According to the U.S. National Climate Assessment, the Southeast Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States are particularly susceptible to sea level rise, heat waves, hurricanes and less accessibility to clean water due to climate change. This is because of the extreme variation of topography in these two regions. Preparation for climate change consequences can only occur with conversation, which is a method of bringing awareness to the issue. Over the past decade, social media has taken over the spectrum of information exchange in the United States. Social Network Analysis (SNA) is a field that is emerging with the growth in popularity of social media. SNA is the practice of analyzing trends in volume and opinion of a population of social media users. Twitter, one popular social media platform, is one of the largest microblogging sites in the world, and it provides an abundance of data related to the trending topics such as climate change. Twitter analytics is a type of SNA performed on data from the tweets of Twitter users. In this work, Twitter analytics is performed on the data generated from the Twitter users in the United States, who were talking about climate change, global warming and/or CO2, over the course of one year (July 2016 - June 2017). Specifically, a regional comparative analysis on the coastal U.S. regions was conducted to recognize which region(s) is/are falling behind on the conversation about climate change. Sentiment analysis was also performed to understand the trends in opinion about climate change that vary over time. Experimental results determined that the southeast coast of the United States is deficient in their discussion about climate change compared to the other coastal regions. Igniting the conversation about this issue in these regions will mitigate the disasters due to climate change by increasing awareness in the people of these regions so they can properly prepare.

Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Trail

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US, one region during summer (Texas, and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast. Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air

Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dmitry V. Sein

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis. Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the

Regional Climate Change and Development of Public Health Decision Aids

Science.gov (United States)

Hegedus, A. M.; Darmenova, K.; Grant, F.; Kiley, H.; Higgins, G. J.; Apling, D.

2011-12-01

According to the World Heath Organization (WHO) climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, and changes the way we must look at protecting vulnerable populations. Worldwide, the occurrence of some diseases and other threats to human health depend predominantly on local climate patterns. Rising average temperatures, in combination with changing rainfall patterns and humidity levels, alter the lifecycle and regional distribution of certain disease-carrying vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks and rodents. In addition, higher surface temperatures will bring heat waves and heat stress to urban regions worldwide and will likely increase heat-related health risks. A growing body of scientific evidence also suggests an increase in extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and hurricanes that can be destructive to human health and well-being. Therefore, climate adaptation and health decision aids are urgently needed by city planners and health officials to determine high risk areas, evaluate vulnerable populations and develop public health infrastructure and surveillance systems. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. WRF model is initialized with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model simulations forced with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather, quantifying the risk of occurrence of water/rodent/vector-borne diseases as well as developing various heat stress related decision aids. Our results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary

Development of ALARO-Climate regional climate model for a very high resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Skalak, Petr; Farda, Ales; Brozkova, Radmila; Masek, Jan

2014-05-01

ALARO-Climate is a new regional climate model (RCM) derived from the ALADIN LAM model family. It is based on the numerical weather prediction model ALARO and developed at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. The model is expected to able to work in the so called "grey zone" physics (horizontal resolution of 4 - 7 km) and at the same time retain its ability to be operated in resolutions in between 20 and 50 km, which are typical for contemporary generation of regional climate models. Here we present the main results of the RCM ALARO-Climate model simulations in 25 and 6.25 km resolutions on the longer time-scale (1961-1990). The model was driven by the ERA-40 re-analyses and run on the integration domain of ~ 2500 x 2500 km size covering the central Europe. The simulated model climate was compared with the gridded observation of air temperature (mean, maximum, minimum) and precipitation from the E-OBS version dataset 8. Other simulated parameters (e.g., cloudiness, radiation or components of water cycle) were compared to the ERA-40 re-analyses. The validation of the first ERA-40 simulation in both, 25 km and 6.25 km resolutions, revealed significant cold biases in all seasons and overestimation of precipitation in the selected Central Europe target area (0° - 30° eastern longitude ; 40° - 60° northern latitude). The differences between these simulations were small and thus revealed a robustness of the model's physical parameterization on the resolution change. The series of 25 km resolution simulations with several model adaptations was carried out to study their effect on the simulated properties of climate variables and thus possibly identify a source of major errors in the simulated climate. The current investigation suggests the main reason for biases is related to the model physic. Acknowledgements: This study was performed within the frame of projects ALARO (project P209/11/2405 sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation) and CzechGlobe Centre (CZ.1

Regional climate projections for Northeast India: an appraisal from CORDEX South Asia experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, D.; Dimri, A. P.

2017-11-01

An appraisal of the recent changes in the present climate (1970-2005) followed by the possible future (2006-2100) changes in the climate has been carried out in the current study using the observations and regional climate model (REMO) over the Northeast Indian region. The regional climate model simulation has been used from the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) South Asia framework. A consistent warming for the winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) and post-monsoon (October and November (ON)) has been observed for the present climate especially in the northern and eastern parts of the region. The changes in the near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) temperature climatology suggest a rise in temperature by 3-8 °C across different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The rate of long-term (1970-2099) increase in temperature has been found ranging between 0.01 and 0.07 °C/year across the region in the least emission (RCP2.6) to strongest emission (RCP8.5) scenarios. The daily mean precipitation statistics suggests an overall increasing trends of precipitation during the pre-monsoon (March, April, and May (MAM)) for the present across the region with a mixed trend in other seasons. A change in daily mean precipitation ranging from - 60% (during winter) to + 40% during post-monsoon has been projected by the model across different RCPs. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a strong deficit in precipitation in the warmer climate across the region as compared to RCP2.6. This fact is also confirmed from the long-term trend of precipitation where a consistent decreasing trend dominates in the RCP4.5- and RCP8.5-simulated precipitations by the end of the twenty-first century. A large model bias in temperature and precipitation along with high amount of uncertainty is associated with the model simulations; thus, in order to use the projections, a more careful approach to improve the utility of downscaled product should be adopted.

Applying Multimodel Ensemble from Regional Climate Models for Improving Runoff Projections on Semiarid Regions of Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia Galiano, S. G.; Olmos, P.; Giraldo Osorio, J. D.

2015-12-01

In the Mediterranean area, significant changes on temperature and precipitation are expected throughout the century. These trends could exacerbate the existing conditions in regions already vulnerable to climatic variability, reducing the water availability. Improving knowledge about plausible impacts of climate change on water cycle processes at basin scale, is an important step for building adaptive capacity to the impacts in this region, where severe water shortages are expected for the next decades. RCMs ensemble in combination with distributed hydrological models with few parameters, constitutes a valid and robust methodology to increase the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. For reaching this objective, a novel methodology for building Regional Climate Models (RCMs) ensembles of meteorological variables (rainfall an temperatures), was applied. RCMs ensembles are justified for increasing the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. The evaluation of RCMs goodness-of-fit to build the ensemble is based on empirical probability density functions (PDF) extracted from both RCMs dataset and a highly resolution gridded observational dataset, for the time period 1961-1990. The applied method is considering the seasonal and annual variability of the rainfall and temperatures. The RCMs ensembles constitute the input to a distributed hydrological model at basin scale, for assessing the runoff projections. The selected hydrological model is presenting few parameters in order to reduce the uncertainties involved. The study basin corresponds to a head basin of Segura River Basin, located in the South East of Spain. The impacts on runoff and its trend from observational dataset and climate projections, were assessed. Considering the control period 1961-1990, plausible significant decreases in runoff for the time period 2021-2050, were identified.

Organizational climate with gender equity and burnout among university academics in Japan

OpenAIRE

TAKA, Fumiaki; NOMURA, Kyoko; HORIE, Saki; TAKEMOTO, Keisuke; TAKEUCHI, Masumi; TAKENOSHITA, Shinichi; MURAKAMI, Aya; HIRAIKE, Haruko; OKINAGA, Hiroko; SMITH, Derek R.

2016-01-01

We investigated relationships between the perception of organizational climate with gender equity and psychological health among 94 women and 211 men in a Japanese private university in 2015 using the Copenhagen Burnout Inventory (i.e., personal, work-related and student-related burnout). Perceptions of organizational climate with respect to gender equity were measured with two scales including organizational engagement with a gender equal society in the workplace (consisting of three domains...

Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

OpenAIRE

Stenke A.; Hoyle C. R.; Luo B.; Rozanov E.; Groebner J.; Maag L.; Broennimann S.; Peter T.

2013-01-01

Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on Earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a...

Mixed precipitation occurrences over southern Québec, Canada, under warmer climate conditions using a regional climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Matte, Dominic; Thériault, Julie M.; Laprise, René

2018-05-01

Winter weather events with temperatures near 0°C are often associated with freezing rain. They can have major impacts on the society by causing power outages and disruptions to the transportation networks. Despite the catastrophic consequences of freezing rain, very few studies have investigated how their occurrences could evolve under climate change. This study aims to investigate the change of freezing rain and ice pellets over southern Québec using regional climate modeling at high resolution. The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model with climate scenario RCP 8.5 at 0.11° grid mesh was used. The precipitation types such as freezing rain, ice pellets or their combination are diagnosed using five methods (Cantin and Bachand, Bourgouin, Ramer, Czys and, Baldwin). The occurrences of the diagnosed precipitation types for the recent past (1980-2009) are found to be comparable to observations. The projections for the future scenario (2070-2099) suggested a general decrease in the occurrences of mixed precipitation over southern Québec from October to April. This is mainly due to a decrease in long-duration events (≥6 h ). Overall, this study contributes to better understand how the distribution of freezing rain and ice pellets might change in the future using high-resolution regional climate model.

University Knowledge Spillovers & Regional Start-up Rates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hellerstedt, Karin; Wennberg, Karl; Frederiksen, Lars

2014-01-01

how characteristics of the economic and political milieu within each region influence the ratio of firm births. We find that knowledge spillovers from universities and firm-based R&D strongly affect the start-up rates for both high-tech firms and knowledge-intensive services firms. Further, the start......This chapter investigates how regional start-up rates in the knowledge-intensive services and high-tech industries are influenced by knowledge spillovers from both universities and firm-based R&D activities. Integrating insights from economic geography and organizational ecology into the literature......-up rate of knowledge-intensive service firms is tied more strongly to the supply of university educated individuals and the political regulatory regime within the municipality than start-ups in high-tech industries. This suggests that knowledge-intensive service-start-ups are more susceptible to both...

Interactive Development of Regional Climate Web Pages for the Western United States

Science.gov (United States)

Oakley, N.; Redmond, K. T.

2013-12-01

Weather and climate have a pervasive and significant influence on the western United States, driving a demand for information that is ongoing and constantly increasing. In communications with stakeholders, policy makers, researchers, educators, and the public through formal and informal encounters, three standout challenges face users of weather and climate information in the West. First, the needed information is scattered about the web making it difficult or tedious to access. Second, information is too complex or requires too much background knowledge to be immediately applicable. Third, due to complex terrain, there is high spatial variability in weather, climate, and their associated impacts in the West, warranting information outlets with a region-specific focus. Two web sites, TahoeClim and the Great Basin Weather and Climate Dashboard were developed to overcome these challenges to meeting regional weather and climate information needs. TahoeClim focuses on the Lake Tahoe Basin, a region of critical environmental concern spanning the border of Nevada and California. TahoeClim arose out of the need for researchers, policy makers, and environmental organizations to have access to all available weather and climate information in one place. Additionally, TahoeClim developed tools to both interpret and visualize data for the Tahoe Basin with supporting instructional material. The Great Basin Weather and Climate Dashboard arose from discussions at an informal meeting about Nevada drought organized by the USDA Farm Service Agency. Stakeholders at this meeting expressed a need to take a 'quick glance' at various climate indicators to support their decision making process. Both sites were designed to provide 'one-stop shopping' for weather and climate information in their respective regions and to be intuitive and usable by a diverse audience. An interactive, 'co-development' approach was taken with sites to ensure needs of potential users were met. The sites were

A Reusable Framework for Regional Climate Model Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Hart, A. F.; Goodale, C. E.; Mattmann, C. A.; Lean, P.; Kim, J.; Zimdars, P.; Waliser, D. E.; Crichton, D. J.

2011-12-01

Climate observations are currently obtained through a diverse network of sensors and platforms that include space-based observatories, airborne and seaborne platforms, and distributed, networked, ground-based instruments. These global observational measurements are critical inputs to the efforts of the climate modeling community and can provide a corpus of data for use in analysis and validation of climate models. The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is an effort currently being undertaken to address the challenges of integrating this vast array of observational climate data into a coherent resource suitable for performing model analysis at the regional level. Developed through a collaboration between the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the UCLA Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering (JIFRESSE), the RCMES uses existing open source technologies (MySQL, Apache Hadoop, and Apache OODT), to construct a scalable, parametric, geospatial data store that incorporates decades of observational data from a variety of NASA Earth science missions, as well as other sources into a consistently annotated, highly available scientific resource. By eliminating arbitrary partitions in the data (individual file boundaries, differing file formats, etc), and instead treating each individual observational measurement as a unique, geospatially referenced data point, the RCMES is capable of transforming large, heterogeneous collections of disparate observational data into a unified resource suitable for comparison to climate model output. This facility is further enhanced by the availability of a model evaluation toolkit which consists of a set of Python libraries, a RESTful web service layer, and a browser-based graphical user interface that allows for orchestration of model-to-data comparisons by composing them visually through web forms. This combination of tools and interfaces dramatically simplifies the process of interacting with and

51 climate change perception, awareness and adaptation decision ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2 Environment Department, University of York, York, UK. Corresponding author: ... The perception of climate change and adaptation decision of forest .... well as the broader characteristics of the production system and ... mangrove forest, Guinea savanna, montane forest ...... forecastsand regional climate-risk management.

Using Climate Regionalization to Understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Precipitation Performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)

Science.gov (United States)

Regonda, Satish K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Rodell, Matthew

2016-01-01

Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast SystemVersion 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction.

School Climate in the Engineering and Architecture Campus of a Mexican Public University: Students’ Perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María del Carmen Sandoval-Caraveo

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The objective of this research was to identify the school climate that prevails in the students of the faculty of Engineering and Architecture in a Mexican public University. This study was conducted in response to a need to take care of the recommendations of the agencies evaluating the educational programs. It was done with a quantitative approach, of a descriptive and correlational type with non-experimental transactional design. The studied dimensions of the school climate were: organization structure, functionality, pedagogical practices, climate between peer interaction and satisfaction. The data were collected using a Likert scale questionnaire, with a reliability of .880 of Cronbach’s Alpha coefficient and validity through confirmatory factorial analysis. The results obtained from the descriptive statistics pointed the favorable school climate in peer interaction and pedagogical practices. Organizational structure, however, was the lowest rated classroom climate dimension. ANOVA results showed significant statistical differences between the school climate and educational programs, the years that the students have remained in the university, the age and the school cycle. Pearson’s correlation analysis revealed weak and negative correlation between school climate and student age.

NOAA/NCEI/Regional Climate Services: Working with Partners and Stakeholders across a Wide Network

Science.gov (United States)

Mecray, E. L.

2015-12-01

Federal agencies all require plans to be prepared at the state level that outline the implementation of funding to address wildlife habitat, human health, transportation infrastructure, coastal zone management, environmental management, emergency management, and others. These plans are now requiring the consideration of changing climate conditions. So where does a state turn to discuss lessons learned, obtain tools and information to assess climate conditions, and to work with other states in their region? Regional networks and collaboratives are working to deliver this sector by sector. How do these networks work? Do they fit together in any way? What similarities and differences exist? Is anyone talking across these lines to find common climate information requirements? A sketch is forming that links these efforts, not by blending the sectors, but by finding the areas where coordination is critical, where information needs are common, and where delivery mechanisms can be streamlined. NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information's Regional Climate Services Directors have been working at the interface of stakeholder-driven information delivery since 2010. This talk will outline the regional climate services delivery framework for the Eastern Region, with examples of regional products and information.

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change. Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amato, A.D.; Ruth, M.; Kirshen, P.; Horwitz, J.

2005-01-01

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change. Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amato, A.D.; Ruth, M. [Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, 3139 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD (United States); Kirshen, P. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Anderson Hall, Medford, MA (United States); Horwitz, J. [Climatological Database Consultant, Binary Systems Software, Newton, MA (United States)

2005-07-01

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.

University as Regional Development Agent: A Counterfactual Analysis of an African University

Science.gov (United States)

Fongwa, Samuel N.; Wangenge-Ouma, Gerald

2015-01-01

The contribution of universities to regional development has in the last few decades gained significant currency. Inter alia, this contribution has been through steered national, regional, and institutional policies aimed at enhancing national development, good governance, human capital creation and innovation in an increasing knowledge-dependent…

Public perception of climate change in the cold regions of Russia: an example of Yakutia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. A. Anisimov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The rate of climate change in the Russian cold regions is nearly twice larger than the global‑mean rate. Besides climate risks, such changes lead to new possibilities, which require scientifically based regional adaptation strategies. Climate could be viewed as an inexhaustible public resource that creates opportuni‑ ties for sustainable development. Long‑term trends show that climate as a resource is becoming more read‑ ily available in the cold regions, notwithstanding the general perception that globally climate change is one of the challenges of the 21st century. Adaptation strategies are required for balancing the risks and potential benefits resulting from the changing climate. Success of such strategies depends on the public perception of climate change. This study compares the observational data on climate and environmental changes with the results of the public survey conducted in Yakutia in the period 2012–2017. The survey involved nearly 2000 respondents in several cities and 2 villages (Ust‑Maja, Saskhulakh representing different economical, socio‑ logical, permafrost, vegetation, and climatic conditions. Results indicated that public perception of the climatic and environmental changes is not univocal, and depends on many factors. Low probability extreme events, such as unusual weather patterns or abrupt land‑ scape changes may have greater effect than the long‑term climate trends. Currently less than half of the pop‑ ulation in Yakutia consider climate change as an established fact, and are ready to take actions in this regard. Meanwhile, Yakutia is a region where observational records demonstrate the most pronounced changes in climatic regime compared to other Russian regions. The contrast between the actual changes and public per‑ ception of such changes has important implication for developing adaptation strategies. To be effective, such strategies should combine knowledge coming from instrumental‑ and

Regional monitoring of environmental physics climate related anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

El-Askary, Hesham

2004-11-01

Scientific communities have been working in creating and enhancing scientific research programs in which in situ and satellite data as well as remote sensing (RS) technologies are being applied to regional environmental issues. These issues include the effects of climate change on regional flooding, droughts and the impact of human activities as they relate to feedbacks on the global climate. More specifically, one needs to evaluate the potential impact of climatological variability on social, economic, and human activities. In addition, the study of their effects on agriculture, forests, local natural ecosystems and water climate-related resources, is most important. Finally, dust storms and other natural events such as droughts can have great local impacts. Approximately half of the dust in today's atmosphere may be the result of changes to the environment caused by human activities, including agriculture, overgrazing, and deforestation. Climate variability may lead to the occurrence of some severe environmental phenomena like dust storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts. Under normal conditions we can detect different dust effects associated with the movement of storms as well as different rain patterns that do not affect much of the surrounding environment either at regional or global scales. On the other hand, under abnormal climatological conditions, high anomalies of precipitation might occur due to the presence of hurricanes or other events, leading to severe flooding events. In this dissertation, we apply time series analysis techniques to remote sensing and in situ data to detect precipitation and dust storm anomalies and study their behavior on regional scales. The first application is the detection and monitoring of dust storms events over parts of the Middle East and Asia. Dust storms cause health and economic hazards. In this thesis dust storms development is examined based on using remote sensing. It utilizes a combination of optical

Climate and atmospheric research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kramer, G.; Schumacher, R.

1992-01-01

This issue of the scientific journal of the Humboldt university is dedicated to results of research work carried out to the greatest extent at the meteorological institute in the last two years on the area of climate and atmospheric research. The traditional research areas of the institute are climatology and the dynamics of the atmosphere, in particular the atmospherical boundary layer. Considering the high probability of a global climatic fluctuation due to the anthropogenic change of composition of the atmosphere and other climate-relevant factors imminent in the next century, climatological research today is an important part of global and regional environmental research. From the necessity of determination and evaluation of the effect of climatic fluctuations on nature and society the contours of a new interdisciplinary research area are already visible now. This is suitable as hardly any other area to be the supporting idea of environmental research at universities. The contributions contained in the issue already consider, in addition to results on climate diagnosis, also results on aspects of climate effect research. (orig./KW) [de

Engaging Storm Spotters and Community College Students in Regional Responses to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Mooney, M. E.; Ackerman, S. A.; Buhr, S. M.

2012-12-01

Resiliency to natural hazards includes climate literacy. With a record number of billion dollar weather disasters in 2011, each one enhanced by a warmer atmosphere, our nation needs new strategies to respond, mitigate, communicate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. We know that actions we take today matter, but finding ways to mobilize our citizenry remains largely elusive. One way to galvanize a meaningful response to climate change could involve National Weather Service (NWS) storm spotters and Community College students. Dedicated storm spotters represent decades of NOAA NWS efforts to engage and enlist public participation in community safety. Why not leverage this wealth of human capital to cultivate a similar mitigation and stewardship response? The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted a pilot project with NWS storm spotters in the spring of 2011 via a web seminar on climate change, climate mitigation and emerging applications to access weather and climate data with mobile devices. Nineteen storm spotters participated and eleven provided feedback via a follow-up survey. A third of the respondents indicated that they had taken actions to minimize their carbon footprint; a majority (90%) indicated their likelihood to take action in the near future and more than two-thirds said they wanted to learn more about climate mitigation and sustainability. One attendee commented "Thank-you for putting together this web seminar. As a weather spotter, I found the information helpful, even humbling, to know climate change is already happening." CIMSS is also collaborating with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and Madison Area Technical College (MATC) on a climate education project where community college students take an on-line climate change course followed by the opportunity to apply for a summer internship. Through this program, two students

Climate Change and Regulation in International and Regional Level, Especially the Built Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Putnoki Zsuzsanna

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article starts with a brief insight into the history of climate change, with a scope on the international and legal aspects of ever-changing regulations. The regional level is in the article is The European Union, as the only regional economic integration organization under the Kyoto Protocol. It deals with the United Nation’s international agreements like UNFCCC its Kyoto’s Protocol and the Post-Kyoto era. It also analyses the EU’s system in the climate change law with correspondence the international rules. Comparison between international and regional legislation in the climate change is used as a tool of analysis. Finally an insight is given into a special field in the climate change, the build environment, reflecting on the related United Nation’s recommendation and the EU’s regulation.

Survey of organizational research climates in three research intensive, doctoral granting universities.

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, James A; Thrush, Carol R; Martinson, Brian C; May, Terry A; Stickler, Michelle; Callahan, Eileen C; Klomparens, Karen L

2014-12-01

The Survey of Organizational Research Climate (SOuRCe) is a new instrument that assesses dimensions of research integrity climate, including ethical leadership, socialization and communication processes, and policies, procedures, structures, and processes to address risks to research integrity. We present a descriptive analysis to characterize differences on the SOuRCe scales across departments, fields of study, and status categories (faculty, postdoctoral scholars, and graduate students) for 11,455 respondents from three research-intensive universities. Among the seven SOuRCe scales, variance explained by status and fields of study ranged from 7.6% (Advisor-Advisee Relations) to 16.2% (Integrity Norms). Department accounted for greater than 50% of the variance explained for each of the SOuRCe scales, ranging from 52.6% (Regulatory Quality) to 80.3% (Integrity Inhibitors). It is feasible to implement this instrument in large university settings across a broad range of fields, department types, and individual roles within academic units. Published baseline results provide initial data for institutions using the SOuRCe who wish to compare their own research integrity climates. © The Author(s) 2014.

Regional climate projections for the MENA-CORDEX domain: analysis of projected temperature and precipitation changes

Science.gov (United States)

Hänsler, Andreas; Weber, Torsten; Eggert, Bastian; Saeed, Fahad; Jacob, Daniela

2014-05-01

Within the CORDEX initiative a multi-model suite of regionalized climate change information will be made available for several regions of the world. The German Climate Service Center (CSC) is taking part in this initiative by applying the regional climate model REMO to downscale global climate projections of different coupled general circulation models (GCMs) for several CORDEX domains. Also for the MENA-CORDEX domain, a set of regional climate change projections has been established at the CSC by downscaling CMIP5 projections of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the regional model REMO for the time period from 1950 to 2100 to a horizontal resolution of 0.44 degree. In this study we investigate projected changes in future climate conditions over the domain towards the end of the 21st century. Focus in the analysis is given to projected changes in the temperature and rainfall characteristics and their differences for the two scenarios will be highlighted.

Local climate change capacity : comparing four municipalities in the Dutch Twente region

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Vegt, Arjen; Hoppe, Thomas; Stegmaier, Peter

2015-01-01

Climate change is seen as a key societal challenge to cities and regions. City governments design and implement policies to cope with climate change: on the one hand by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and spurring low carbon transition; on the other hand by adapting to climate change, hence

A regional climate simulation over the Iberian Peninsula for the last millennium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. J. Gómez-Navarro

2011-04-01

Full Text Available A high-resolution (30 km regional paleoclimate simulation of the last millennium over the Iberian Peninsula (IP is presented. The simulation was performed with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5 driven by the global model ECHO-G. Both models were driven by the same reconstructions of several external forcing factors. The high spatial resolution of the regional model allows climatologists to realistically simulate many aspects of the climate in the IP, as compared to an observational data set in the reference period 1961–1990. Although the spatial-averaged values developed by the regional model are tightly driven by the boundary conditions, it is capable to develop a different realisation of the past climate at regional scales, especially in the high-frequency domain and for precipitation. This has to be considered when comparing the results of climate simulations versus proxy reconstructions. A preliminary comparison of the simulation results with reconstructions of temperature and precipitation over the IP shows good agreement in the warming trends in the last century of the simulation, although there are large disagreements in key periods such as the precipitation anomalies in the Maunder Minimum.

Climate change projections over three metropolitan regions in Southeast Brazil using the non-hydrostatic Eta regional climate model at 5-km resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Lyra, Andre; Tavares, Priscila; Chou, Sin Chan; Sueiro, Gustavo; Dereczynski, Claudine; Sondermann, Marcely; Silva, Adan; Marengo, José; Giarolla, Angélica

2018-04-01

The objective of this work is to assess changes in three metropolitan regions of Southeast Brazil (Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Santos) based on the projections produced by the Eta Regional Climate Model (RCM) at very high spatial resolution, 5 km. The region, which is densely populated and extremely active economically, is frequently affected by intense rainfall events that trigger floods and landslides during the austral summer. The analyses are carried out for the period between 1961 and 2100. The 5-km simulations are results from a second downscaling nesting in the HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations. Prior to the assessment of the projections, the higher resolution simulations were evaluated for the historical period (1961-1990). The comparison between the 5-km and the coarser driver model simulations shows that the spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature of the 5-km Eta simulations are in good agreement with the observations. The simulated frequency distribution of the precipitation and temperature extremes from the 5-km Eta RCM is consistent with the observed structure and extreme values. Projections of future climate change using the 5-km Eta runs show stronger warming in the region, primarily during the summer season, while precipitation is strongly reduced. Projected temperature extremes show widespread heating with maximum temperatures increasing by approximately 9 °C in the three metropolitan regions by the end of the century in the RCP8.5 scenario. A trend of drier climate is also projected using indices based on daily precipitation, which reaches annual rainfall reductions of more than 50 % in the state of Rio de Janeiro and between 40 and 45 % in São Paulo and Santos. The magnitude of these changes has negative implications to the population health conditions, energy security, and economy.

Continuously on-­going regional climate hindcast simulations for impact applications

Science.gov (United States)

Anders, Ivonne; Piringer, Martin; Kaufmann, Hildegard; Knauder, Werner; Resch, Gernot; Andre, Konrad

2017-04-01

Observational data for e.g. temperature, precipitation, radiation, or wind are often used as meteorological forcing for different impact models, like e.g. crop models, urban models, economic models and energy system models. To assess a climate signal, the time period covered by the observation is often too short, they have gaps in between, and are inhomogeneous over time, due to changes in the measurements itself or in the near surrounding. Thus output from global and regional climate models can close the gap and provide homogeneous and physically consistent time series of meteorological parameters. CORDEX evaluation runs performed for the IPCC-AR5 provide a good base for the regional scale. However, with respect to climate services, continuously on-going hindcast simulations are required for regularly updated applications. The Climate Research group at the national Austrian weather service, ZAMG, is focusing on high mountain regions and, especially on the Alps. The hindcast-simulation performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM is forced by ERAinterim and optimized for the Alpine Region. The simulation available for the period of 1979-2015 in a spatial resolution of about 10km is prolonged ongoing and fullfils the customer's needs with respect of output variables, levels, intervals and statistical measures. One of the main tasks is to capture strong precipitation events which often occur during summer when low pressure systems develop over the Golf of Genoa, moving to the Northeast. This leads to floods and landslide events in Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. Such events are not sufficiently represented in the CORDEX-evaluation runs. ZAMG use high quality gridded precipitation and temperature data for the Alpine Region (1-6km) to evaluate the model performance. Data is provided e.g. to hydrological modellers (high water, low water), but also to assess icing capability of infrastructure or the calculation the separation distances between livestock

Characterization of the Sahelian-Sudan rainfall based on observations and regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Salih, Abubakr A. M.; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Tjernström, Michael; Zhang, Qiong

2018-04-01

The African Sahel region is known to be highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. We analyze rainfall in the Sahelian Sudan in terms of distribution of rain-days and amounts, and examine whether regional climate models can capture these rainfall features. Three regional models namely, Regional Model (REMO), Rossby Center Atmospheric Model (RCA) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), are evaluated against gridded observations (Climate Research Unit, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-interim reanalysis) and rain-gauge data from six arid and semi-arid weather stations across Sahelian Sudan over the period 1989 to 2008. Most of the observed rain-days are characterized by weak (0.1-1.0 mm/day) to moderate (> 1.0-10.0 mm/day) rainfall, with average frequencies of 18.5% and 48.0% of the total annual rain-days, respectively. Although very strong rainfall events (> 30.0 mm/day) occur rarely, they account for a large fraction of the total annual rainfall (28-42% across the stations). The performance of the models varies both spatially and temporally. RegCM4 most closely reproduces the observed annual rainfall cycle, especially for the more arid locations, but all of the three models fail to capture the strong rainfall events and hence underestimate its contribution to the total annual number of rain-days and rainfall amount. However, excessive moderate rainfall compensates this underestimation in the models in an annual average sense. The present study uncovers some of the models' limitations in skillfully reproducing the observed climate over dry regions, will aid model users in recognizing the uncertainties in the model output and will help climate and hydrological modeling communities in improving models.

Regional Spectral Model simulations of the summertime regional climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas

Science.gov (United States)

Ching-Teng Lee; Ming-Chin Wu; Shyh-Chin Chen

2005-01-01

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) version 97 was used to investigate the regional summertime climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas for June-July-August of 1990 through 2000. The simulated sea-level-pressure and wind fields of RSM1 with 50-km grid space are similar to the reanalysis, but the strength of the...

An intercomparison of regional climate model data for hydrological impact studies in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Butts, Michael

2010-01-01

The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject to consider......The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject...... to considerable systematic errors. In this study, projected climate change data from the RCM HIRHAM4 are used to generate climate scenario time series of precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration for the period 2071-2100 for hydrological impact assessments in Denmark. RCM output for the present......-day period (1961-1990) are compared to an observational data set, with precipitation corrected for undercatch and wetting losses, to quantify systematic model errors. A delta change method is applied to cope with these biases. A question arises as to how variable the climate change signals are...

Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

Science.gov (United States)

Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

2015-12-01

The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on

Climate information for the wind energy industry in the Mediterranean Region

Science.gov (United States)

Calmanti, Sandro; Davis, Melanie; Schmidt, Peter; Dell'Aquila, Alessandro

2013-04-01

According to the World Wind Energy Association the total wind generation capacity worldwide has come close to cover 3% of the world's electricity demand in 2011. Thanks to the enormous resource potential and the relatively low costs of construction and maintenance of wind power plants, the wind energy sector will remain one of the most attractive renewable energy investment options. Studies reveal that climate variability and change pose a new challenge to the entire renewable energy sector, and in particular for wind energy. Stakeholders in the wind energy sector mainly use, if available, site-specific historical climate information to assess wind resources at a given project site. So far, this is the only source of information that investors (e.g., banks) are keen to accept for decisions concerning the financing of wind energy projects. However, one possible wind energy risk at the seasonal scale is the volatility of earnings from year to year investment. The most significant risk is therefore that not enough units of energy (or megawatt hours) can be generated from the project to capture energy sales to pay down debt in any given quarter or year. On the longer time scale the risk is that a project's energy yields fall short of their estimated levels, resulting in revenues that consistently come in below their projection, over the life of the project. The nature of the risk exposure determines considerable interest in wind scenarios, as a potential component of both the planning and operational phase of a renewable energy project. Fundamentally, by using climate projections, the assumption of stationary wind regimes can be compared to other scenarios where large scale changes in atmospheric circulation patterns may affect local wind regimes. In the framework of CLIM-RUN EU FP7 project, climate experts are exploring the potential of seasonal to decadal climate forecast techniques (time-frame 2012-2040) and regional climate scenarios (time horizon 2040+) over the

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gutowski, William J.

2013-02-07

The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

An Investigation of Creative Climate of University R&D Centers and Policy Implications for Innovation in China

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Chunfang; Rasmussen, Palle; Chemi, Tatiana

2017-01-01

The chapter focuses on the influences of science and technology (S&T) policies on creative climate of university R&D centers in China that provide policy implications for improving roles of university R&D in innovation system. The empirical data came from two questionnaire surveys, one...... is with members from R&D centers, another with leaders of S&T fund management sectors in universities. The results demonstrate both strengths and weaknesses of creative climate of university R&D centers. This leads to implications such as to improve a more comprehensive innovation Measurement system and to build...

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

Science.gov (United States)

Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

2016-01-01

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, K.; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A. G.

2013-01-01

Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

Western Regional Center of the National Institute for Climatic Change Research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hungate, Bruce A. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)

2013-05-02

The major goal of this project was fostering, integrating, synthesizing, and disseminating experimental, observational, and modeling research on predicted climate change in the western region of the U.S. and the impacts of that change on the structure, productivity, and climatic interactions of the region's natural and managed ecological systems. This was accomplished through administering a competitive grants program developed in collaboration with the other four regional centers of the NICCR. The activities supported included efforts to synthesize research on climate change in the western U.S. through meta-analysis studies, model comparisons, and data synthesis workshops. Results from this work were disseminated to the scientific and public media. This project also supported the development of the NICCR web site, hosted at NAU, which was used as the means to accept pre-proposal and proposal submissions for each funding cycle, and served as a clearing house for public outreach for results from NICCR-funded research

Real-Time Climate Simulations in the Interactive 3D Game Universe Sandbox ²

Science.gov (United States)

Goldenson, N. L.

2014-12-01

Exploration in an open-ended computer game is an engaging way to explore climate and climate change. Everyone can explore physical models with real-time visualization in the educational simulator Universe Sandbox ² (universesandbox.com/2), which includes basic climate simulations on planets. I have implemented a time-dependent, one-dimensional meridional heat transport energy balance model to run and be adjustable in real time in the midst of a larger simulated system. Universe Sandbox ² is based on the original game - at its core a gravity simulator - with other new physically-based content for stellar evolution, and handling collisions between bodies. Existing users are mostly science enthusiasts in informal settings. We believe that this is the first climate simulation to be implemented in a professionally developed computer game with modern 3D graphical output in real time. The type of simple climate model we've adopted helps us depict the seasonal cycle and the more drastic changes that come from changing the orbit or other external forcings. Users can alter the climate as the simulation is running by altering the star(s) in the simulation, dragging to change orbits and obliquity, adjusting the climate simulation parameters directly or changing other properties like CO2 concentration that affect the model parameters in representative ways. Ongoing visuals of the expansion and contraction of sea ice and snow-cover respond to the temperature calculations, and make it accessible to explore a variety of scenarios and intuitive to understand the output. Variables like temperature can also be graphed in real time. We balance computational constraints with the ability to capture the physical phenomena we wish to visualize, giving everyone access to a simple open-ended meridional energy balance climate simulation to explore and experiment with. The software lends itself to labs at a variety of levels about climate concepts including seasons, the Greenhouse effect

Forest Influences on Climate and Water Resources at the Landscape to Regional Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Ge Sun; Yongqiang Liu

2013-01-01

Although it is well known that climate controls the distribution, productivity and functioning of vegetation on earth, our knowledge about the role of forests in regulating regional climate and water resources is lacking. The studies on climate-forests feedbacks have received increasing attention from the climate change and ecohydrology research communities. The goal...

Constructing Perceptions of Climate Change: a case study of regional political decision makers

Science.gov (United States)

Bray, D.

2012-12-01

This case study of climate change communications assesses the salient means of communication and the message adopted by regional political decision makers on the German Baltic coast. Realizing that cultural factors and local values (and not simply knowledge) are significant influences in explaining attitudes towards climate change, this analysis draws from the records of regional weather, from scientists with a specific focus on the region, from the political decision makers for that region, and the media message reaching the decision makers, ensuring all elements of the analysis are drawn from the same socioeconomic, geophysical, political and cultural context. This is important as the social dynamics surrounding the trust in science is of critical importance and, as such, all elements of the case study are specifically contained within a common context. If the utility of climate change knowledge is to prompt well conceived adaptation/mitigation strategies then the political decision process, or at least the perceptions shaping it, can best be understood by locating it within the world view of the decision makers involved in the production process. Using the results of two survey questionnaires, one of regional climate scientists and one of regional political decision makers, ten years of local weather records, and a summary of the message from mass media circulation, the discord in perceptions of regional climate change are quantitatively explored. The conclusions drawn from the analysis include, compared to the scientific assessment: The decision makers' perceptions of recent past differ from actual observations. The decision makers' perceptions of the future differ from scientific assessments. The decision makers tend to over estimate the magnitude of regional climate change and its impacts. The decision makers tend to over estimate the sense of immediacy for adaptation measures. The conclusions drawn suggest that in the regional political realm, it is often a

Climatic features of the Red Sea from a regional assimilative model

KAUST Repository

Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

2016-08-16

The Advanced Research version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used to generate a downscaled, 10-km resolution regional climate dataset over the Red Sea and adjacent region. The model simulations are performed based on two, two-way nested domains of 30- and 10-km resolutions assimilating all conventional observations using a cyclic three-dimensional variational approach over an initial 12-h period. The improved initial conditions are then used to generate regional climate products for the following 24 h. We combined the resulting daily 24-h datasets to construct a 15-year Red Sea atmospheric downscaled product from 2000 to 2014. This 15-year downscaled dataset is evaluated via comparisons with various in situ and gridded datasets. Our analysis indicates that the assimilated model successfully reproduced the spatial and temporal variability of temperature, wind, rainfall, relative humidity and sea level pressure over the Red Sea region. The model also efficiently simulated the seasonal and monthly variability of wind patterns, the Red Sea Convergence Zone and associated rainfall. Our results suggest that dynamical downscaling and assimilation of available observations improve the representation of regional atmospheric features over the Red Sea compared to global analysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. We use the dataset to describe the atmospheric climatic conditions over the Red Sea region. © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society.

Climate Change Education at the University of Washington: Bridging Academic Degrees, Departments and Disciplines

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, L.; Bertram, M. A.

2012-12-01

Education on climate change occurs in many departments at large research universities, but providing a coordinated educational experience for students in this topic is challenging. Departmental boundaries, accounting for student credit hours, and curricula inertia create roadblocks to the creation of interdisciplinary curriculum for both graduate and undergraduate students. We describe a hierarchy of interdisciplinary programs that reach students from seniors in high school to graduate students, targeting students from a variety of disciplines. The UWHS (University of Washington in the High School) program allows high school teachers to be trained to teach UW courses to their own high school students at their own school. The students who enroll receive a UW grade and credit for the course (as well as high school credit). A UWHS course on Climate and Climate Change (Atmospheric Sciences 211) was created in 2011 supported by training to high school science teachers on the fundamentals of climate science. For the 2012-13 academic year we anticipate at least 5 schools in Washington State will be offering this course. Once students matriculate at UW, 211 serves as a prerequisite for the Climate Minor that began in 2011. The minor is hosted by the departments of Atmospheric Sciences, Earth and Space Sciences and Oceanography, offering instruction in three focus areas: climate chemistry and biology, the physical climate, and past climate and ice. Students also take an integrative seminar where they are required to communicate to both scientific and non-scientific audiences some topic in climate science. Students enrolled in graduate programs at UW can participate in the Graduate Certificate in Climate Science that began 2008. The certificate gives students instruction in climate science covering the same topic areas as the minor and with a capstone project where student communicate some aspect of climate science to a non-physical science audience. Projects have included

Impact of Variable-Resolution Meshes on Regional Climate Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, L. D.; Skamarock, W. C.; Bruyere, C. L.

2014-12-01

The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is currently being used for seasonal-scale simulations on globally-uniform and regionally-refined meshes. Our ongoing research aims at analyzing simulations of tropical convective activity and tropical cyclone development during one hurricane season over the North Atlantic Ocean, contrasting statistics obtained with a variable-resolution mesh against those obtained with a quasi-uniform mesh. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity of convective and grid-scale precipitations, and their relative contributions to the total precipitation as a function of the horizontal scale. Multi-month simulations initialized on May 1st 2005 using ERA-Interim re-analyses indicate that MPAS performs satisfactorily as a regional climate model for different combinations of horizontal resolutions and transitions between the coarse and refined meshes. Results highlight seamless transitions for convection, cloud microphysics, radiation, and land-surface processes between the quasi-uniform and locally- refined meshes, despite the fact that the physics parameterizations were not developed for variable resolution meshes. Our goal of analyzing the performance of MPAS is twofold. First, we want to establish that MPAS can be successfully used as a regional climate model, bypassing the need for nesting and nudging techniques at the edges of the computational domain as done in traditional regional climate modeling. Second, we want to assess the performance of our convective and cloud microphysics parameterizations as the horizontal resolution varies between the lower-resolution quasi-uniform and higher-resolution locally-refined areas of the global domain.

Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Thornton, Philip K; Jarvis, Andy; Challinor, Andrew J

2013-01-01

Global climate models (GCMs) have become increasingly important for climate change science and provide the basis for most impact studies. Since impact models are highly sensitive to input climate data, GCM skill is crucial for getting better short-, medium- and long-term outlooks for agricultural production and food security. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 ensemble is likely to underpin the majority of climate impact assessments over the next few years. We assess 24 CMIP3 and 26 CMIP5 simulations of present climate against climate observations for five tropical regions, as well as regional improvements in model skill and, through literature review, the sensitivities of impact estimates to model error. Climatological means of seasonal mean temperatures depict mean errors between 1 and 18 ° C (2–130% with respect to mean), whereas seasonal precipitation and wet-day frequency depict larger errors, often offsetting observed means and variability beyond 100%. Simulated interannual climate variability in GCMs warrants particular attention, given that no single GCM matches observations in more than 30% of the areas for monthly precipitation and wet-day frequency, 50% for diurnal range and 70% for mean temperatures. We report improvements in mean climate skill of 5–15% for climatological mean temperatures, 3–5% for diurnal range and 1–2% in precipitation. At these improvement rates, we estimate that at least 5–30 years of CMIP work is required to improve regional temperature simulations and at least 30–50 years for precipitation simulations, for these to be directly input into impact models. We conclude with some recommendations for the use of CMIP5 in agricultural impact studies. (letter)

An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Horton, Radley M.

Climate variability has large impacts on humans and their agricultural systems. Farmers are at the center of this agricultural network, but it is often agricultural planners---regional planners, extension agents, commodity groups and cooperatives---that translate climate information for users. Global climate models (GCMs) are a leading tool for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. Armed with climate projections and forecasts, agricultural planners adapt their decision-making to optimize outcomes. This thesis explores what GCMs can, and cannot, tell us about climate variability and change at regional scales. The question is important, since high-quality regional climate projections could assist farmers and regional planners in key management decisions, contributing to better agricultural outcomes. To answer these questions, climate variability and its regional impacts are explored in observations and models for the current and future climate. The goals are to identify impacts of observed variability, assess model simulation of variability, and explore how climate variability and its impacts may change under enhanced greenhouse warming. Chapter One explores how well Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric models, forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SST), simulate climatology and large-scale features during the exceptionally strong 1997--1999 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Reasonable performance in this 'proof of concept' test is considered a minimum requirement for further study of variability in models. All model versions produce appropriate local changes with ENSO, indicating that with correct ocean temperatures these versions are capable of simulating the large-scale effects of ENSO around the globe. A high vertical resolution model (VHR) provides the best simulation. Evidence is also presented that SST anomalies outside the tropical Pacific may play a key role in generating remote teleconnections even

The terroir of vineyards - climatic variability in an Austrian wine-growing region

Science.gov (United States)

Gerersdorfer, T.

2010-09-01

The description of a terroir is a concept in viticulture that relates the sensory attributes of wine to the environmental conditions in which the grapes grow. Many factors are involved including climate, soil, cultivar, human practices and all these factors interact manifold. The study area of Carnuntum is a small wine-growing region in the eastern part of Austria. It is rich of Roman remains which play a major role in tourism and the marketing strategies of the wines as well. An interdisciplinary study on the environmental characteristics particularly with regard to growing conditions of grapes was started in this region. The study is concerned with the description of the physiogeographic properties of the region and with the investigation of the dominating viticultural functions. Grape-vines depend on climatic conditions to a high extent. Compared to other influencing factors like soil, climate plays a significant role. In the framework of this interdisciplinary project climatic variability within the Carnuntum wine-growing region is investigated. On the one hand microclimatic variations are influenced by soil type and by canopy management. On the other hand the variability is a result of the topoclimate (altitude, aspect and slope) and therefore relief is a major terroir factor. Results of microclimatic measurements and variations are presented with focus on the interpretation of the relationship between relief, structure of the vineyards and the climatic conditions within the course of a full year period.

Building America Best Practices Series: Volume 7.1: Guide to Determining Climate Regions by County

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baechler, Michael C.; Williamson, Jennifer L.; Gilbride, Theresa L.; Cole, Pamala C.; Hefty, Marye G.; Love, Pat M.

2010-08-30

This report for DOE's Building America program helps builders identify which Building America climate region they are building in. The guide includes maps comparing the Building America regions with climate designations used in the International Energy Conservation Code for Residential Buildings and lists all U.S. counties by climate zone. A very brief history of the development of the Building America climate map and descriptions of each climate zone are provided. This report is available on the Building America website www.buildingamerica.gov.

The Effect of Mitigation Policy on Regional Climate Impacts on the U.S. Electric Sector

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, S. M.; Sun, Y.; Strzepek, K.; McFarland, J.; Boehlert, B.; Fant, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change can influence the U.S. electricity sector in many ways, the nature of which can be shaped by energy and environmental policy choices. Changing temperatures affect electricity demand largely through heating and cooling needs, and temperatures also affect generation and transmission system performance. Altered precipitation patterns affect the regional and seasonal distribution of surface water runoff, which changes hydropower operation and thermal cooling water availability. The extent to which these stimuli influence U.S. power sector operation and planning will depend to some extent on whether or not proactive policies are enacted to mitigate these impacts. Mitigation policies such as CO2 emissions limits or technology restrictions can change the makeup of the electricity system while reducing the extent of climate change itself. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model, to explore electric sector evolution through 2050 under alternative climate and policy assumptions. The model endogenously represents climate impacts on load, power system performance, cooling water availability, and hydropower, allowing internally consistent system responses to climate change along with projected technology, market, and policy conditions. We compare climate impacts across 5 global circulation models for a 8.5 W/m2 representative concentration pathway (RCP) without a climate mitigation policy and a 4.5 W/m2 RCP with climate mitigation. Climate drivers affect the capacity and generation mix at the national and regional levels, with relative growth of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies depending on local electricity system characteristics. These differences affect regional economic impacts, measured here as changes to electricity price and system costs. Mitigation policy reduces the economic and system impacts of climate change largely by moderating

Comparison of injury incidences between football teams playing in different climatic regions

Science.gov (United States)

Orchard, John W; Waldén, Markus; Hägglund, Martin; Orchard, Jessica J; Chivers, Ian; Seward, Hugh; Ekstrand, Jan

2013-01-01

Australian Football League (AFL) teams in northern (warmer) areas generally have higher rates of injury than those in southern (cooler) areas. Conversely, in soccer (football) in Europe, teams in northern (cooler) areas have higher rates of injury than those in southern (warmer) areas, with an exception being knee anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries, which are more common in the southern (warmer) parts of Europe. This study examined relative injury incidence in the AFL comparing 9,477 injuries over 229,827 player-weeks from 1999–2012. There was a slightly higher injury incidence for teams from warmer parts of Australia (relative risk [RR] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.10) with quadriceps strains (RR 1.32, 95% CI 1.10–1.58), knee cartilage injuries (RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.16–1.74), and ankle sprains (RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.00–1.37) all being more likely in warmer region teams. Achilles injuries followed a reverse pattern, tending to be more common in cooler region teams (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.47–1.03). In conclusion, common findings from the AFL and European soccer are that ankle sprains and ACL injuries are generally more likely in teams playing in warmer climate zones, whereas Achilles tendinopathy may be more likely in teams playing in cooler zones. These injuries may have climate or surface risk factors (possibly related to types and structure of grass and shoe-surface traction) that are universal across different football codes. PMID:24379731

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Geographical patterns in cyanobacteria distribution: climate influence at regional scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Pitois, Frédéric; Thoraval, Isabelle; Baurès, Estelle; Thomas, Olivier

2014-01-28

Cyanobacteria are a component of public health hazards in freshwater environments because of their potential as toxin producers. Eutrophication has long been considered the main cause of cyanobacteria outbreak and proliferation, whereas many studies emphasized the effect of abiotic parameters (mainly temperature and light) on cell growth rate or toxin production. In view of the growing concerns of global change consequences on public health parameters, this study attempts to enlighten climate influence on cyanobacteria at regional scale in Brittany (NW France). The results show that homogeneous cyanobacteria groups are associated with climatic domains related to temperature, global radiation and pluviometry, whereas microcystins (MCs) occurrences are only correlated to local cyanobacteria species composition. As the regional climatic gradient amplitude is similar to the projected climate evolution on a 30-year timespan, a comparison between the present NW and SE situations was used to extrapolate the evolution of geographical cyanobacteria distribution in Brittany. Cyanobacteria composition should shift toward species associated with more frequent Microcystins occurrences along a NW/SE axis whereas lakes situated along a SW/NE axis should transition to species (mainly Nostocales) associated with lower MCs detection frequencies.

Attribution of the Regional Patterns of North American Climate Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Hoerling, M.; Kumar, A.; Karoly, D.; Rind, D.; Hegerl, G.; Eischeid, J.

2007-12-01

North American trends in surface temperature and precipitation during 1951-2006 exhibit large spatial and seasonal variations. We seek to explain these by synthesizing new information based on existing model simulations of climate and its forcing, and based on modern reanalyses that describe past and current conditions within the free atmosphere. The presentation focuses on current capabilities to explain the spatial variations and seasonal differences in North American climate trends. It will address whether various heterogeneities in space and time can be accounted for by the climate system's sensitivity to time evolving anthropogenic forcing, and examines the influences of non-anthropogenic processes. New findings are presented that indicate anthropogenic forcing alone was unlikely the cause for key regional and seasonal patterns of change, including the absence of summertime warming over the Great Plains of the United States, and the absence of warming during both winter and summer over the southern United States. Key regional features are instead attributed to trends in the principal patterns of atmospheric flow that affect North American climate. It is demonstrated that observed variations in global sea surface temperatures have significantly influenced these patterns of atmospheric flow.

Universities, regional innovation systems and the Bangalore experience

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vang, Jan; Coenen, Lars; Chaminade, Christina

2007-01-01

This paper takes stock with one-size-fits-all models on the role of universities in regional innovation systems in Asia. It proposes a contextual and evolutionary perspective which focuses on the match between the specific competences and capabilities of the universities and the firms' particular...

The Asia-Pacific Region on the Paris Agreement against Climate Change: Geopolitics and Cooperation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Bertha Cuevas Tello

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Given the complexity surrounding climate change, it is argued that the willingness to cooperate on the part of the States is based on one of the faces that, for the climate field, can offer geopolitics: strengths or weaknesses (understood as vulnerability of geographical conditions, location and territory. That is, the physical, geographic, economic and demographic factors of each State influence the decision making of the foreign climate policy, which induces them to cooperate or the abstention of it. This paper will address, broadly speaking, the participation of the main economies of the Asia-Pacific region in the institutionalization of climate change in the International Agenda; the importance of the economies of the Asia-Pacific region with regard to the Paris Agreement; and the geopolitical strengths and weaknesses that explain the cooperative or non-cooperative behavior of the region in the fight against climate change.

University in a Region of Excellence: A Fuzzy Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Janez Usenik

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The idea of establishing a university in the region southeast of Ljubljana has been festering for quite a few decades. The first attempts date back to the 1970s, but at that time the idea was still premature. The country in existence at that time did not allow for such discussions. After the assumption of independence of Slovenia, the hopes of having its own university in the southeast region reignited. Individuals and groups started with many activities and the possibility of establishing a university was becoming a reality. However, it should be noted that despite all efforts after twenty years there still is no university. Local and national authorities were changing and no one expressed anything against the establishment. Even local politicians included the establishment of a university in their program platforms; however till this date there still is no university. Will it finally happen?The article describes a model using fuzzy logic to determine the possibilities of establishing a university in relation to local and state interests.

Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Cardoso, Rita M; Soares, Pedro M M; Cancela, Javier J; Pinto, Joaquim G; Santos, João A

2014-01-01

The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

Regional Climate Modeling and Remote Sensing to Characterize Impacts of Civil War Driven Land Use Change on Regional Hydrology and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Maksimowicz, M.; Masarik, M. T.; Brandt, J.; Flores, A. N.

2016-12-01

Land use/land cover (LULC) change directly impacts the partitioning of surface mass and energy fluxes. Regional-scale weather and climate are potentially altered by LULC if the resultant changes in partitioning of surface energy fluxes are extensive enough. Dynamics of land use, particularly those related to the social dimensions of the Earth System, are often simplified or not represented in regional land-atmosphere models. This study explores the role of LULC change on a regional hydroclimate system, focusing on potential hydroclimate changes arising from an extended civil conflict in Mozambique. Civil war from 1977-1992 in Mozambique led to land use change at a regional scale as a result of the collapse of large herbivore populations due to poaching. Since the war ended, farming has increased, poaching was curtailed, and animal populations were reintroduced. In this study LULC in a region encompassing Gorongosa is classified at three instances between 1977 to 2015 using Landsat imagery. We use these derived LULC datasets to inform lower boundary conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To quantify potential hydrometeorological changes arising from conflict-driven land use change, we performed a factorial-like experiment by mixing input LULC maps and atmospheric forcing data from before, during, and after the civil war. Analysis of the Landsat data shows measurable land cover change from 1977-present as tree cover encroached into grasslands. Initial tests show corresponding sensitivities to different LULC schemes within the WRF model. Preliminary results suggest that the war did indeed impact regional hydroclimate in a significant way via its direct and indirect impacts on land-atmosphere interactions. Results of this study suggest that LULC change arising from regional conflicts are a potentially understudied, yet important human process to capture in both regional reanalyses and climate change projections.

Regional climate models' performance in representing precipitation and temperature over selected Mediterranean areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Deidda

2013-12-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses the relative performance of several climate models in providing reliable forcing for hydrological modeling in six representative catchments in the Mediterranean region. We consider 14 Regional Climate Models (RCMs, from the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project, run for the A1B emission scenario on a common 0.22° (about 24 km rotated grid over Europe and the Mediterranean region. In the validation period (1951 to 2010 we consider daily precipitation and surface temperatures from the observed data fields (E-OBS data set, available from the ENSEMBLES project and the data providers in the ECA&D project. Our primary objective is to rank the 14 RCMs for each catchment and select the four best-performing ones to use as common forcing for hydrological models in the six Mediterranean basins considered in the EU-FP7 CLIMB project. Using a common suite of four RCMs for all studied catchments reduces the (epistemic uncertainty when evaluating trends and climate change impacts in the 21st century. We present and discuss the validation setting, as well as the obtained results and, in some detail, the difficulties we experienced when processing the data. In doing so we also provide useful information and advice for researchers not directly involved in climate modeling, but interested in the use of climate model outputs for hydrological modeling and, more generally, climate change impact studies in the Mediterranean region.

The science behind Kyoto: the role of universities in the climate change debate. Part I

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Keefe, W.F. (American Petroleum Institute, Washington, DC (United States))

1999-01-01

In the debate over climate change pseudo-arguments have become more important than scientific evidence, as there is little evidence of fossil fuel burning affecting the climate. The lobbyists claims must be refuted by disinterested scientific analysis, and in this the universities must play their part.

Climate change in the Cairns and Great Barrier Reef region. Scope and Focus for an Integrated Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crimp, S.; Balston, J.; Ash, A.; Anderson-Berry, L.; Done, T.; Greiner, R.; Hilbert, D.; Howden, M.; Jones, R.; Stokes, C.; Stoeckl, N.; Sutherst, B.; Whetton, P.

2004-07-01

This study was undertaken to determine the scope and focus for an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the Cairns Great Barrier Reef (CGBR) region. To achieve this, the authors employed both technical expertise and regional stakeholder input. This document describes the study objectives and the process used to meet these objectives, and provides an overview of the CGBR region, the views of technical experts on potential climate change impacts, stakeholder prioritisation of impacts and adaptation options, a list of perceived knowledge gaps, and a recommended structure for a future integrated assessment in the region. The aim of the study was to determine the scope and focus for an integrated regional assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the CGBR region. The key objectives of the study were: Define and describe the study region; Develop a process for the study, which includes key stakeholders in the region; Prepare a comprehensive list of the regional stakeholders; Brief regional stakeholders about potential climate changes in the region; Gain insight from stakeholders into the climatic dependencies of key sectors and issues in the region (agriculture, fishing, forestry, tourism, natural ecosystems, infrastructure, pests, diseases and human health); Identify possible adaptation and/or amelioration strategies for each sector; Identify synergies with other sectors, and possible barriers to undertaking climate change adaptation strategies; Identify knowledge gaps, research priorities and current activities that may need alteration or enhancement; Define the scope of a possible integrated assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the region

The influence of inter-annually varying albedo on regional climate and drought

KAUST Repository

Meng, Xianhong; Evans, Jason P.; McCabe, Matthew

2013-01-01

Albedo plays an important role in land-atmosphere interactions and local climate. This study presents the impact on simulating regional climate, and the evolution of a drought, when using the default climatological albedo as is usually done

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems' net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Dongsheng; Wu, Shaohong; Yin, Yunhe

2013-01-01

The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change.

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems' net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dongsheng Zhao

Full Text Available The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN, a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change.

Regional climate scenarios - A study on precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hesselbjerg Christensen, J.; Boessing Christensen, O.

2001-01-01

A set of nested climate change simulations for the Nordic region and Denmark has been revisited. In the present work we have re-examined the results of CCMB and MBC with special emphasis on precipitation intensity frequencies, in particular the more extreme part of the frequency distribution. It has been demonstrated that the role of extreme precipitation events appears to be more realistically described in a high-resolution model, in terms of numerical agreement as well as seasonal variation. This is mainly due to a better simulation of deep low-pressure systems and mesoscale circulation. Generally, the analysis has confirmed the results from CCMB, but furthermore a resolution effect has been identified which seems essential to the understanding of climate change effects on the extreme end of the precipitation intensity distribution. In order to analyse the role of the model resolution we have aggregated both the nested model data and observational records to the GCM grid from the driving AOGCM. It was found that, in spite of changes in absolute numbers, the seasonal behaviour of decay constants does not change appreciably because of the aggregation. The RCM results show a seasonal behaviour very similar to an observed data set. It is therefore concluded that the GCM has an unrealistic simulation of the dependence of heavy precipitation on climate, as manifested in seasonal variation. In contrast, the regional simulations remain close to observation in this respect. Furthermore, they agree on a conclusion that extreme precipitation generally scales with average precipitation (no significant change in decay constants were detected), but that crucial summer season may be an exception, exhibiting an anomalous increase in heavy precipitation due to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. The analysis has only been performed over Denmark due to lack of daily observational data for other regions. It is, however, necessary to extend the work to other areas, for instance

The Construction of an Organizational Climate Description Questionnaire for Academic Departments in Colleges and Universities.

Science.gov (United States)

Borrevik, Berge Andrew, Jr.

The purpose of this investigation was to construct an Organizational Climate Description Questionnaire-Higher Education that would permit portrayal of the organizational climate of academic departments within colleges and universities. Data collected from the completion of pilot and research instruments was obtained from the faculty members in 72…

Climate change and the water cycle: A new southwest regional climate hub curriculum unit for 6th-12th grade students

Science.gov (United States)

As climate change intensifies, increased temperatures and altered precipitation will make water, a limited resource in the arid southwestern United States, even scarcer in many locations. The USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub (SWRCH) developed Climate Change and the Water Cycle, an engaging and sc...

Implementing climate change adaptation in forested regions of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar; Janine M. Rice; Christopher W. Swanston

2014-01-01

Natural resource managers need concrete ways to adapt to the effects of climate change. Science-management partnerships have proven to be an effective means of facilitating climate change adaptation for natural resource management agencies. Here we describe the process and results of several science-management partnerships in different forested regions of the United...

Climate Impacts on Northern Canada: Regional Background

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prowse, Terry D.; Peters, Daniel L. (Water and Climate Impacts Research Centre, Environment Canada, Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada)). e-mail: terry.prowse@ec.gc.caa; Furgal, Chris (Indigenous Environmental Studies Program, Trent Univ., Peterborough, ON (Canada)); Bonsal, Barrie R. (National Water Research Inst., National Hydrology Research Centre, Environment Canada, Saskatoon, SK (Canada))

2009-07-15

Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 deg C in the south to as low as -20 deg C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be >700 mm y-1 in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y-1 over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land

A Three-Legged Stool or Race? Governance Models for NOAA RISAs, DOI CSCs, and USDA Climate Hubs

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, J. G.

2014-12-01

NOAAs Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Teams, DOIs Climate Science Centers (CSCs), and USDAs Regional Climate Hubs (RCHs) have common missions of integrating climate and related knowledge across scientific disciplines and regions to create "actionable" information that decision-makes can use to manage climate risks and impacts at state and local scales. However, the sponsoring agency programs, university investigators, and local federal officials govern each differently. The three models of program and center governance are 1) exclusively university (RISAs), 2) a hybrid of Federal government and (host) university (CSCs,), and 3) exclusively Federal (Hubs). Each model has it's advantages and disadvantages in terms of legal definition and authority, scientific mission requirements and strategies, flexibility and legitimacy to conduct research and to collaborate regionally with constituencies, leadership and governance approach and "friction points,", staff capacity and ability to engage stakeholders, necessity to deliver products and services, bureaucratic oversight, performance evaluation, and political support at Congressional, state, and local levels. Using available sources of information and data, this paper will compare and contrast the strengths and weakness of these three regional applied climate science center governance models.

A Three-Legged Stool or Race? Governance Models for NOAA RISAs, DOI CSCs, and USDA Climate Hub

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, J. G.

2014-12-01

NOAAs Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Teams, DOIs Climate Science Centers (CSCs), and USDAs Regional Climate Hubs (RCHs) have common missions of integrating climate and related knowledge across scientific disciplines and regions to create "actionable" information that decision-makes can use to manage climate risks and impacts at state and local scales. However, the sponsoring agency programs, university investigators, and local federal officials govern each differently. The three models of program and center governance are 1) exclusively university (RISAs), 2) a hybrid of Federal government and (host) university (CSCs,), and 3) exclusively Federal (Hubs). Each model has it's advantages and disadvantages in terms of legal definition and authority, scientific mission requirements and strategies, flexibility and legitimacy to conduct research and to collaborate regionally with constituencies, leadership and governance approach and "friction points,", staff capacity and ability to engage stakeholders, necessity to deliver products and services, bureaucratic oversight, performance evaluation, and political support at Congressional, state, and local levels. Using available sources of information and data, this paper will compare and contrast the strengths and weakness of these three regional applied climate science center governance models.

Evaluating the impacts of climate change on diurnal wind power cycles using multiple regional climate models

KAUST Repository

Goddard, Scott D.

2015-05-01

Electrical utility system operators must plan resources so that electricity supply matches demand throughout the day. As the proportion of wind-generated electricity in the US grows, changes in daily wind patterns have the potential either to disrupt the utility or increase the value of wind to the system over time. Wind power projects are designed to last many years, so at this timescale, climate change may become an influential factor on wind patterns. We examine the potential effects of climate change on the average diurnal power production cycles at 12 locations in North America by analyzing averaged and individual output from nine high-resolution regional climate models comprising historical (1971–1999) and future (2041–2069) periods. A semi-parametric mixed model is fit using cubic B-splines, and model diagnostics are checked. Then, a likelihood ratio test is applied to test for differences between the time periods in the seasonal daily averaged cycles, and agreement among the individual regional climate models is assessed. We investigate the significant changes by combining boxplots with a differencing approach and identify broad categories of changes in the amplitude, shape, and position of the average daily cycles. We then discuss the potential impact of these changes on wind power production.

Climate variability and wine quality over Portuguese regions

Science.gov (United States)

Gouveia, Célia M.; Gani, Érico A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

2015-04-01

The relationship between the characteristics of wine and its geographic origin is frequently used to explain the hierarchy of high-quality wines. Port wine is produced from grapes grown in selected areas of the Douro valley, in Portugal, the so-called Região Demarcada do Douro, the first wine-producing region of the world (dating from 1758). The Douro region presents distinctive climatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Moreover Portugal possesses a large array of native varietals, producing an abundant diversity of different wines. The most protected wines, produced only with some authorised grape varietals in the demarcated regions, are labelled D.O.C. (Denominação de Origem Controlada, similar to the French Appellation d'Origine Contrôlée (AOC)) which secures a superior wine quality. Recent warming trends in Portugal are associated with the significant increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves, and the increase in the frequency of hot days and tropical nights, especially in spring and summer, together with a significant decrease in the frequency of cold waves and frost days (Santo et al., 2014). Moreover a predominantly negative tendency in precipitation indices was also found (de Lima et al., 2014). These trends and associated changes in temperature and precipitation regimes may exert strong influences on agriculture systems. In this work we have performed an analysis of the distinct behaviour of several meteorological fields in vintage versus non-vintage years for Port Wine on one hand and Alentejo and Dão/Bairrada DOC regions on the other hand, during the period spanning from 1964-1995. The relative importance of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and frost days is assessed for each individual month of the vegetative cycle and their importance to the wine quality is evaluated. Furthermore, composites of 500 hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure fields over the Euro Atlantic region are also compared for years

Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

2015-08-01

The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA- 40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of

Multisite bias correction of precipitation data from regional climate models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Hnilica, Jan; Hanel, M.; Puš, V.

2017-01-01

Roč. 37, č. 6 (2017), s. 2934-2946 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA16-05665S Grant - others:Grantová agentura ČR - GA ČR(CZ) 16-16549S Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : bias correction * regional climate model * correlation * covariance * multivariate data * multisite correction * principal components * precipitation Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Climatic research Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C.-E. Park

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961–2010. Before the early 1980s (1961–1983, change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984–2010, the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helder Fraga

Full Text Available The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

Regional climate scenarios for use in Nordic water resources studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rummukainen, Markku; Räisänen, J.; Bjørge, D.

2003-01-01

in the Nordic region than in the global mean, regional increases and decreases in net precipitation, longer growing season, shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff, snowpack, groundwater, soil frost and moisture, and thus hydropower production potential, flooding risks etc. Regional climate models......-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding....

Testing the Waters: Climate Change in Africa and Anticipating Regional Conflicts

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-04

University of Illinois Special Report. (Champaign, IL: University of Illinois at Urbana -Champaign), 4. 15 Environmentally, there are many problems...various drainage channels of the Niger River (the greatest river system in Western Africa) crisscross over 11 countries in the region, which...Security in Nigeria: Ramifications of the Ecology-Security Nexus for Sub-Regional Peace. Champaign: University of Illinois at Urbana -Champaign, 1997

The role of leadership in regional climate change adaptation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meijerink, Sander; Stiller, Sabina; Keskitalo, E.C.H.; Scholten, Peter; Smits, Robert; Lamoen, van Frank

2015-01-01

This paper aims to better understand the role of leadership in regional climate change adaptation. We first present a framework, which distinguishes five functions of leadership within inter-organizational networks: the connective, enabling, adaptive, political–administrative and dissemination

Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

2011-09-30

This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

Regional Farm Diversity Can Reduce Vulnerability of Food Production to Climate Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.A.

2008-01-01

Food production must adapt in the face of climate change. In Europe, projected vulnerability of food production to climate change is particularly high in Mediterranean regions. Increasing agricultural diversity has been suggested as an adaptation strategy, but empirical evidence is lacking. We

Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

Science.gov (United States)

Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations

Aerosol Radiative Impact on the Middle East Regional Climate and the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Osipov, Sergey

2017-10-01

The climate in the Middle East is complex and remains poorly understood. Due to the vast Arabian Desert, it is very sensitive to radiative forcing. Mineral dust is the dominant aerosol in this region. High background dust loading and frequent dust outbreaks significantly perturb the radiative balance and contribute to climate variability in the Middle East. To assess the climatological impact of dust in the region, we derived the aerosol optical properties and used a standalone column model to quantify radiative forcing sensitivity to a range of parameters representative of the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea. Simulations and modeling assumptions were validated using available in situ observations and satellite retrievals for fair weather and dust storm conditions. We incorporated the optical properties into the regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model and conducted simulations that represent the regional climate. The analysis shows that dust cools the Earth-atmosphere system and thus offsets the warming due to greenhouse gases. Dust reduces the sea surface temperature by 0.4 K, significantly perturbs energy balance, overturning circulation, and its purely dynamical impact reduces biological productivity in the Red Sea. In the real world, dust is present permanently and this does not allow to directly observe the climate response to the dust forcing. Volcanic eruptions produce a transient radiative impact that causes a detectable climate response that could be evaluated from observations and compared with simulations. Large equatorial eruptions are known to significantly perturb the Earth’s climate on the global scale, but their regional impact on the Middle East has not been thoroughly investigated. For example, the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption had a profound effect on the MENA and caused extensive coral bleaching in the Gulf of Aqaba. The analysis shows that observed cooling in the Middle East was mostly driven by changes in the atmospheric large

Prehistoric land use and Neolithisation in Europe in the context of regional climate events

Science.gov (United States)

Lemmen, C.; Wirtz, K. W.; Gronenborn, D.

2009-04-01

We present a simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit model of pre-Bronze age socio-technological change, called the Global Land Use and Technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). The socio-technological realm is described by three characteristic traits: available technology, subsistence style ratio, and economic diversity. Human population and culture develop in the context of global paleoclimate and regional paleoclimate events. Global paleoclimate is derived from CLIMBER-2 Earth System Model anomalies superimposed on the IIASA temperature and precipitation database. Regional a forcing is provided by abrupt climate deteriorations from a compilation of 138 long-term high-resolution climate proxy time series from mostly terrestrial and near-shore archives. The GLUES simulator provides for a novel way to explore the interplay between climate, climate change, and cultural evolution both on the Holocene timescale as well as for short-term extreme event periods. We sucessfully simulate the migration of people and the diffusion of Neolithic technology from the Near East into Europe in the period 12000-4000 a BP. We find good agreement with recent archeological compilations of Western Eurasian Neolithic sites. No causal relationship between climate events and cultural evolution could be identified, but the speed of cultural development is found to be modulated by the frequency of climate events. From the demographic evolution and regional ressource consumption, we estimate regional land use change and prehistoric greenhouse gas emissions.

Responses of Terrestrial Ecosystems’ Net Primary Productivity to Future Regional Climate Change in China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Dongsheng; Wu, Shaohong; Yin, Yunhe

2013-01-01

The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems’ response to global climate change. China’s ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China’s terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change. PMID:23593325

The WASCAL high-resolution regional climate simulation ensemble for West Africa: concept, dissemination and assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Heinzeller, Dominikus; Dieng, Diarra; Smiatek, Gerhard; Olusegun, Christiana; Klein, Cornelia; Hamann, Ilse; Salack, Seyni; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstmann, Harald

2018-04-01

Climate change and constant population growth pose severe challenges to 21st century rural Africa. Within the framework of the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change scenarios for the greater West African region is provided to support the development of effective adaptation and mitigation measures. This contribution presents the overall concept of the WASCAL regional climate simulations, as well as detailed information on the experimental design, and provides information on the format and dissemination of the available data. All data are made available to the public at the CERA long-term archive of the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) with a subset available at the PANGAEA Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science portal (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.880512" target="_blank">https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.880512). A brief assessment of the data are presented to provide guidance for future users. Regional climate projections are generated at high (12 km) and intermediate (60 km) resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The simulations cover the validation period 1980-2010 and the two future periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100. A brief comparison to observations and two climate change scenarios from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative is presented to provide guidance on the data set to future users and to assess their climate change signal. Under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) scenario, the results suggest an increase in temperature by 1.5 °C at the coast of Guinea and by up to 3 °C in the northern Sahel by the end of the 21st century, in line with existing climate projections for the region. They also project an increase in precipitation by up to 300 mm per year along the coast of Guinea, by up to 150 mm per year in the Soudano region adjacent in the north and

Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob

2010-01-01

Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...... described by the standard winds derived from the REMO pressure data. The mean wind parameters include the directional wind distribution, directional and omni-directional mean values and Weibull fitting parameters, spectral analysis and interannual variability of the standard winds. It was also found that......, on average, the wind characteristics from REMO are in better agreement with observations than those derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis pressure data. The spatial correlation of REMO surface winds in Europe...

Regional scenarios of future climate change over southern Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Tadross, M

2011-11-01

Full Text Available In this chapter, the authors provide projections of regional climate change so that decision-makers can better understand the nature of the projected changes, and how to take this into account when formulating and implementing adaptive strategies....

Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections

Science.gov (United States)

Junk, J.; Ulber, B.; Vidal, S.; Eickermann, M.

2015-11-01

Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Junk, J; Ulber, B; Vidal, S; Eickermann, M

2015-11-01

Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

Development of virtual research environment for regional climatic and ecological studies and continuous education support

Science.gov (United States)

Gordov, Evgeny; Lykosov, Vasily; Krupchatnikov, Vladimir; Bogomolov, Vasily; Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara

2014-05-01

measurements data and support profound statistical analysis of storaged and modeled on demand data. In particular, one can run the integrated models, preprocess modeling results data, using dedicated modules for numerical processing perform analysys and visualize obtained results. New functionality recently has been added to the statistical analysis tools set aimed at detailed studies of climatic extremes occurring in Northern Asia. The VRE element is also supporting thematic educational courses for students and post-graduate students of the Tomsk State University. In particular, it allow students to perform on-line thematic laboratory work cycles on the basics of analysis of current and potential future regional climate change using Siberia territory as an example (Gordova et al, 2013). We plan to expand the integrated models set and add comprehensive surface and Arctic Ocean description. Developed VRE element "Climate" provides specialists involved into multidisciplinary research projects with reliable and practical instruments for integrated research of climate and ecosystems changes on global and regional scales. With its help even a user without programming skills can process and visualize multidimensional observational and model data through unified web-interface using a common graphical web-browser. This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grant 13-05-12034, grant 14-05-00502, and integrated project SB RAS 131. References 1. Gordov E.P., Lykosov V.N., Krupchatnikov V.N., Okladnikov I.G., Titov A.G., Shulgina T.M. Computationaland information technologies for monitoring and modeling of climate changes and their consequences. Novosibirsk: Nauka, Siberian branch, 2013. - 195 p. (in Russian) 2. T.M. Shulgina, E.P. Gordov, I.G. Okladnikov, A.G., Titov, E.Yu. Genina, N.P. Gorbatenko, I.V. Kuzhevskaya,A.S. Akhmetshina. Software complex for a regional climate change analysis. // Vestnik NGU. Series: Information technologies. 2013. Vol. 11. Issue 1. P

Climate adaptation and innovation in Mekong aquaculture ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Climate adaptation and innovation in Mekong aquaculture – AQUADAPT Mekong ... severe weather events and rising sea levels that impact regional hydrology. ... Research and Development Institute, Cambodia; National University of Laos; ...

Implementing Climate Services in Peru: CLIMANDES Project

Science.gov (United States)

Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Mauchle, Fabian; Diaz, Amelia; Seiz, Gabriela; Rubli, Alex; Rossa, Andrea; Rosas, Gabriela; Ita, Niceforo; Calle, Victoria; Villegas, Esequiel; Ambrosetti, Paolo; Brönnimann, Stefan; Hunziker, Stefan; Jacques, Martin; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Konzelmann, Thomas; Gubler, Stefanie; Rohrer, Mario

2014-05-01

The climate variability and change will have increasing influence on the economic and social development of all countries and regions, such as the Andes in Latin America. The CLIMANDES project (Climate services to support decision-making in the Andean Region) will address these issues in Peru. CLIMANDES supports the WMO Regional Training Centre (RTC) in Lima, which is responsible for the training of specialized human resources in meteorology and climatology in the South American Andes (Module 1). Furthermore, CLIMANDES will provide high-quality climate services to inform policy makers in the Andean region (Module 2). It is coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and constitutes a pilot project under the umbrella of the WMO-led Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). The project is funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and runs from August 2012 - July 2015. Module 1 focuses on restructuring the curricula of Meteorology at the La Molina Agraria University (UNALM) and applied training of meteorologists of the Peruvian National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology (SENAMHI). In Module 2, the skills will be shared and developed in the production and delivery of high-quality climate products and services tailored to the needs of the decision makers in the pilot regions Cusco and Junín. Such services will benefit numerous sectors including agriculture, education, health, tourism, energy, transport and others. The goals of the modules 1 and 2 will be achieved through the collaboration of the UNALM, SENAMHI and the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, with the support of the University of Bern (UNIBE), Meteodat and WMO.

Organizational Climate and Work Addiction in Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, 2014: a Case Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rafiee, Noora; Bahrami, Mohammad Amin; Zare, Vahid; Mohammadi, Mahan

2015-12-01

The occupational nature of employees in headquarters units of the University requires them to deal with support issues. Thus, there is some pressure on these employees to complete their assignments on time so that employees in the line units can accurately and expeditiously perform their duties. As a result, work addiction behaviors are sometimes observed among the headquarters personnel. Considering the importance of work addiction and recognizing the factors that intensify it, this study investigated the relationship between organizational climate and the work addiction of headquarters personnel at the Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences. This descriptive-analytic study was conducted using stratified random sampling of 151 University employees in 2014. The data collection tool was an organizational climate questionnaire, which was supplemented by the Work Addiction Risk Test (WART). The data were analyzed using the Pearson test, Spearman test, independent t-test, Mann-Whitney test, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), and the Kruskal-Wallis test using IBM-SPSS version 20. The findings of this study showed that the organizational climate was at a moderate level, and employees were in the danger level in terms of work addiction. In addition, among the dimensions of organizational climate, the risk dimension had a significant relationship with work addiction (porganizational climate score was low and the work addiction score was at the high-risk level, this issue demands more attention of senior managers and human resource officers of organizations to improve the organizational climate and increase employees' awareness of work addiction.

Seroprevalence and risk factor analysis of human leptospirosis in distinct climatic regions of Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Sohail, Muhammad Luqman; Khan, Muhammad Sarwar; Ijaz, Muhammad; Naseer, Omer; Fatima, Zahida; Ahmad, Abdullah Saghir; Ahmad, Waqas

2018-05-01

Leptospirosis is a worldwide emerging infectious disease of zoonotic importance and large epidemics and epizootics have been reported all over the globe. A cross survey study was conducted to estimate seroprevalence of human leptospirosis in climatically distinct regions of Pakistan and to identify the risk factors associated with the disease. Blood samples from 360 humans were collected through convenient sampling, 120 from each of three study areas. Serological testing was performed using ELISA kit as per manufacturer's recommendations. The results showed an overall prevalence of 40.83% (95% CI; 35.71-46.11). Statistical analysis showed significant (P climatic region (50.83%; 95% CI; 41.55-60.07), followed by semi-arid region (44.16%; 95% CI; 35.11-53.52) and lowest in hot and dry region (27.50%; 95% CI; 19.75-36.40). After multivariate analysis age, gender, exposure to flooding water, source of water usage, disinfection schedule of surroundings and history of cut and wound were found significantly associated with the seropositivity of Leptospira. The present study, first to uncover seroprevalence of human Leptospira in different climatic regions of Pakistan, alarms about effect of climate on prevalence of Leptospira in the region. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of land-climate interactions for the regional amplification of temperature extremes in climate projections

Science.gov (United States)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Vogel, M.; Zscheischler, J.; Schwingshackl, C.; Davin, E.; Gudmundsson, L.; Guillod, B.; Hauser, M.; Hirsch, A.; Hirschi, M.; Humphrey, V.; Thiery, W.

2017-12-01

Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than the global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level (Seneviratne et al. 2016). This presentation will highlight the processes underlying this behavior, which is strongly related to land-climate feedbacks (Vogel et al. 2017). The identified feedbacks are also affecting the occurrence probability of compound drought and heat events (Zscheischler and Seneviratne 2017), with high relevance for impacts on forest fire and agriculture production. Moreover, the responsible land processes strongly contribute to the inter-model spread in the projections, and can thus be used to derive observations-based constraints to reduce the uncertainty of projected changes in climate extremes. Finally, we will also discuss the role of soil moisture effects on carbon uptake and their relevance for projections, as well as the role of land use changes in affecting the identified feedbacks and projected changes in climate extremes. References: Seneviratne, S.I., M. Donat, A.J. Pitman, R. Knutti, and R.L. Wilby, 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., R. Orth, F. Cheruy, S. Hagemann, R. Lorenz, B.J.J.M. Hurk, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519, doi:10.1002/2016GL071235. Zscheischler, J., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events. Science Advances, 3(6), doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1700263

Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asma Foughali

2015-07-01

Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

Creating Dynamically Downscaled Seasonal Climate Forecast and Climate Change Projection Information for the North American Monsoon Region Suitable for Decision Making Purposes

Science.gov (United States)

Castro, C. L.; Dominguez, F.; Chang, H.

2010-12-01

Current seasonal climate forecasts and climate change projections of the North American monsoon are based on the use of course-scale information from a general circulation model. The global models, however, have substantial difficulty in resolving the regional scale forcing mechanisms of precipitation. This is especially true during the period of the North American Monsoon in the warm season. Precipitation is driven primarily due to the diurnal cycle of convection, and this process cannot be resolve in coarse-resolution global models that have a relatively poor representation of terrain. Though statistical downscaling may offer a relatively expedient method to generate information more appropriate for the regional scale, and is already being used in the resource decision making processes in the Southwest U.S., its main drawback is that it cannot account for a non-stationary climate. Here we demonstrate the use of a regional climate model, specifically the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, for dynamical downscaling of the North American Monsoon. To drive the WRF simulations, we use retrospective reforecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, the operational model used at the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, and three select “well performing” IPCC AR 4 models for the A2 emission scenario. Though relatively computationally expensive, the use of WRF as a regional climate model in this way adds substantial value in the representation of the North American Monsoon. In both cases, the regional climate model captures a fairly realistic and reasonable monsoon, where none exists in the driving global model, and captures the dominant modes of precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Long-term precipitation variability and trends in these simulations is considered via the standardized precipitation index (SPI), a commonly used metric to characterize long-term drought. Dynamically

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Tölle, Merja H.; Schefczyk, Lukas; Gutjahr, Oliver

2017-11-01

A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5- and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 ∘C. Modeled future precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project

Science.gov (United States)

Iglesias, A.

2011-12-01

The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed

Influence of Climate Variability on US Regional Homicide Rates

Science.gov (United States)

Harp, R. D.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have found consistent evidence of a relationship between temperature and criminal behavior. However, despite agreement in the overall relationship, little progress has been made in distinguishing between two proposed explanatory theories. The General Affective Aggression Model (GAAM) suggests that high temperatures create periods of higher heat stress that enhance individual aggressiveness, whereas the Routine Activities Theory (RAT) theorizes that individuals are more likely to be outdoors interacting with others during periods of pleasant weather with a resulting increase in both interpersonal interactions and victim availability. Further, few studies have considered this relationship within the context of climate change in a quantitative manner. In an effort to distinguish between the two theories, and to examine the statistical relationships on a broader spatial scale than previously, we combined data from the Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR—compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR—compiled by the National Centers for Environmental Protection, a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). US homicide data described by the SHR was compared with seven relevant observed climate variables (temperature, dew point, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation, accumulated snowfall, snow cover, and snow depth) provided by the NARR atmospheric reanalysis. Relationships between homicide rates and climate variables, as well as reveal regional spatial patterns will be presented and discussed, along with the implications due to future climate change. This research lays the groundwork for the refinement of estimates of an oft-overlooked climate change impact, which has previously been estimated to cause an additional 22,000 murders between 2010 and 2099, including providing important constraints for empirical models of future violent crime incidences in the face of global

Assessing climate change over the Marche Region (central Italy) from 1951 to 2050: toward an integrated strategy for climate impacts reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Sangelantoni, Lorenzo; Russo, Aniello; Marincioni, Fausto; Appiotti, Federica

2013-04-01

This study investigates consequences and future impacts of climate change on the social and natural systems of the Marche Region (one of the 20 administrative divisions of Italy). This Region, is located in central part of the peninsula and borders the Adriatic Sea on the East and the Apennine mountains on the West. The Region extends for about 60 km E-W, and has a NW-SE coastline of about 170 km, covering a total area of 9366 km2. Multimodel projections over the Marche Regions, on daily, monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation parameters, have been extracted from the outputs of a set of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe run by several research institutes participating to the EU ENSEMBLE project. These climate simulations refer to the boundary conditions of the IPCC A1B emission scenario, and have a horizontal resolution of 25km × 25km covering a time period from 1951 to 2050. Results detail a significant increase of daily, monthly and seasonal mean temperatures, especially in summer, with anomaly values reaching +3°C after the year 2025, referring to the model CliNo 1981-2010. Mountain areas show higher values of temperature anomalies than coastal ones of approximately 0.5 °C. Concurrently, a widespread decrease of seasonal precipitation appears to affect all seasons, except for autumn. Rainfall decrease and temperature increase could reduce the Region's aquifer recharge and overall availability of hydro resources. These alterations could affect human health, agricultural productivity, forest fires, coastal erosion, algal blooms and water quality. Ongoing analysis of extreme climatological indices (e.g. frequency of maximum daily temperature exceeding comfort thresholds) are expected to quantify such impacts. A first analysis, linking climate change to the hydrologic cycle, studied through the computation of the hydro-climatic intensity index (as defined by Giorgi et al., 2012), suggests for the Marche Region an increase of the intensity of

A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges.

Science.gov (United States)

Prein, Andreas F; Langhans, Wolfgang; Fosser, Giorgia; Ferrone, Andrew; Ban, Nikolina; Goergen, Klaus; Keller, Michael; Tölle, Merja; Gutjahr, Oliver; Feser, Frauke; Brisson, Erwan; Kollet, Stefan; Schmidli, Juerg; van Lipzig, Nicole P M; Leung, Ruby

2015-06-01

Regional climate modeling using convection-permitting models (CPMs; horizontal grid spacing 10 km). CPMs no longer rely on convection parameterization schemes, which had been identified as a major source of errors and uncertainties in LSMs. Moreover, CPMs allow for a more accurate representation of surface and orography fields. The drawback of CPMs is the high demand on computational resources. For this reason, first CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. In this study, we aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic. The most important components in CPMs such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed critically. An overview of weaknesses and an outlook on required future developments is provided. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Improvements are evident mostly for climate statistics related to deep convection, mountainous regions, or extreme events. The climate change signals of CPM simulations suggest an increase in flash floods, changes in hail storm characteristics, and reductions in the snowpack over mountains. In conclusion, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs.

Effect of model resolution on a regional climate model simulation over southeast Australia

KAUST Repository

Evans, J. P.; McCabe, Matthew

2013-01-01

Dynamically downscaling climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for use in impacts and adaptation research has become a common practice in recent years. In this study, the CSIRO Mk3.5 GCM is downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) to medium (50 km) and high (10 km) resolution over southeast Australia. The influence of model resolution on the present-day (1985 to 2009) modelled regional climate and projected future (2075 to 2099) changes are examined for both mean climate and extreme precipitation characteristics. Increasing model resolution tended to improve the simulation of present day climate, with larger improvements in areas affected by mountains and coastlines. Examination of circumstances under which increasing the resolution decreased performance revealed an error in the GCM circulation, the effects of which had been masked by the coarse GCM topography. Resolution modifications to projected changes were largest in regions with strong topographic and coastline influences, and can be large enough to change the sign of the climate change projected by the GCM. Known physical mechanisms for these changes included orographic uplift and low-level blocking of air-masses caused by mountains. In terms of precipitation extremes, the GCM projects increases in extremes even when the projected change in the mean was a decrease: but this was not always true for the higher resolution models. Thus, while the higher resolution RCM climate projections often concur with the GCM projections, there are times and places where they differ significantly due to their better representation of physical processes. It should also be noted that the model resolution can modify precipitation characteristics beyond just its mean value.

Effect of model resolution on a regional climate model simulation over southeast Australia

KAUST Repository

Evans, J. P.

2013-03-26

Dynamically downscaling climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for use in impacts and adaptation research has become a common practice in recent years. In this study, the CSIRO Mk3.5 GCM is downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) to medium (50 km) and high (10 km) resolution over southeast Australia. The influence of model resolution on the present-day (1985 to 2009) modelled regional climate and projected future (2075 to 2099) changes are examined for both mean climate and extreme precipitation characteristics. Increasing model resolution tended to improve the simulation of present day climate, with larger improvements in areas affected by mountains and coastlines. Examination of circumstances under which increasing the resolution decreased performance revealed an error in the GCM circulation, the effects of which had been masked by the coarse GCM topography. Resolution modifications to projected changes were largest in regions with strong topographic and coastline influences, and can be large enough to change the sign of the climate change projected by the GCM. Known physical mechanisms for these changes included orographic uplift and low-level blocking of air-masses caused by mountains. In terms of precipitation extremes, the GCM projects increases in extremes even when the projected change in the mean was a decrease: but this was not always true for the higher resolution models. Thus, while the higher resolution RCM climate projections often concur with the GCM projections, there are times and places where they differ significantly due to their better representation of physical processes. It should also be noted that the model resolution can modify precipitation characteristics beyond just its mean value.

Climate change collaboration among natural resource management agencies: lessons learned from two US regions

Science.gov (United States)

Lemieux, Christopher J.; Thompson, Jessica; Slocombe, D. Scott; Schuster, Rudy

2015-01-01

It has been argued that regional collaboration can facilitate adaptation to climate change impacts through integrated planning and management. In an attempt to understand the underlying institutional factors that either support or contest this assumption, this paper explores the institutional factors influencing adaptation to climate change at the regional scale, where multiple public land and natural resource management jurisdictions are involved. Insights from two mid-western US case studies reveal that several challenges to collaboration persist and prevent fully integrative multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning at a regional scale. We propose that some of these challenges, such as lack of adequate time, funding and communication channels, be reframed as opportunities to build interdependence, identify issue-linkages and collaboratively explore the nature and extent of organisational trade-offs with respect to regional climate change adaptation efforts. Such a reframing can better facilitate multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning and management of shared biophysical resources generally while simultaneously enhancing organisational capacity to mitigate negative effects and take advantage of potentially favourable future conditions in an era characterised by rapid climate change.

Climate optimized planting windows for cotton in the lower Mississippi Delta region

Science.gov (United States)

Unique, variable summer climate of the lower Mississippi Delta region poses a critical challenge to cotton producers in deciding when to plant for optimized production. Traditional 2- to 4-year agronomic field trials conducted in this area fail to capture the effects of long-term climate variabiliti...

Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic sea ice?

Science.gov (United States)

Tilmes, S.; Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

2014-02-01

Rapid declines in summer Arctic sea ice extent are projected under high-forcing future climate scenarios. Regional Arctic climate engineering has been suggested as an emergency strategy to save the sea ice. Model simulations of idealized regional dimming experiments compared to a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission simulation demonstrate the importance of both local and remote feedback mechanisms to the surface energy budget in high latitudes. With increasing artificial reduction in incoming shortwave radiation, the positive surface albedo feedback from Arctic sea ice loss is reduced. However, changes in Arctic clouds and the strongly increasing northward heat transport both counteract the direct dimming effects. A 4 times stronger local reduction in solar radiation compared to a global experiment is required to preserve summer Arctic sea ice area. Even with regional Arctic dimming, a reduction in the strength of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and a shut down of Labrador Sea deep convection are possible.

Impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in France: a regionalization study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Najac, J.

2008-11-01

In this work, we study the impact of climate change on surface winds in France and draw conclusions concerning wind energy resources. Because of their coarse spatial resolution, climate models cannot properly reproduce the spatial variability of surface winds. Thus, 2 down-scaling methods are developed in order to regionalize an ensemble of climate scenarios: a statistical method based on weather typing and a statistic-dynamical method that resorts to high resolution mesoscale modelling. By 2050, significant but relatively small changes are depicted with, in particular, a decrease of the wind speed in the southern and an increase in the northern regions of France. The use of other down-scaling methods enables us to study several uncertainty sources: it appears that most of the uncertainty is due to the climate models. (author)

Contributions of changes in climatology and perturbation and the resulting nonlinearity to regional climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Adachi, Sachiho A; Nishizawa, Seiya; Yoshida, Ryuji; Yamaura, Tsuyoshi; Ando, Kazuto; Yashiro, Hisashi; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki; Tomita, Hirofumi

2017-12-20

Future changes in large-scale climatology and perturbation may have different impacts on regional climate change. It is important to understand the impacts of climatology and perturbation in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic changes. Although many studies have investigated the influence of climatology changes on regional climate, the significance of perturbation changes is still debated. The nonlinear effect of these two changes is also unknown. We propose a systematic procedure that extracts the influences of three factors: changes in climatology, changes in perturbation and the resulting nonlinear effect. We then demonstrate the usefulness of the procedure, applying it to future changes in precipitation. All three factors have the same degree of influence, especially for extreme rainfall events. Thus, regional climate assessments should consider not only the climatology change but also the perturbation change and their nonlinearity. This procedure can advance interpretations of future regional climates.

University-Level Teaching of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change (AGCC) via Student Inquiry

Science.gov (United States)

Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

2017-01-01

This paper reviews university-level efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) through curricula that enable student scientific inquiry. We examined 152 refereed publications and proceedings from academic conferences and selected 26 cases of inquiry learning that overcome specific challenges to AGCC teaching.…

Intercomparison of four regional climate models for the German State of Saxonia

Science.gov (United States)

Kreienkamp, F.; Spekat, A.; Enke, W.

2009-09-01

Results from four regional climate models which focus on Central Europe are presented: CCLM, the climate version of the German Weather Service's Local Model - REMO, the regional dynamic model from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg - STAR, the statistical model developed at the PIK Potsdam Institute and WETTREG, the statistic-dynamic model developed by the company CEC Potsdam. For the area of the German State of Saxonia a host of properties and indicators were analyzed aiming to show the models' abilities to reconstruct the current climate and compare climate model scenarios. These include a group of thermal indicators, such as the number of ice, frost, summer and hot days, the number of tropical nights; then there are hydrometeorological indicators such as the exceedance of low and high precipitation thresholds; humidity, cloudiness and wind indicators complement the array. A selection of them showing similarities and differences of the models investigated will be presented.

Equilibrium of vegetation and climate at the European rear edge. A reference for climate change planning in mountainous Mediterranean regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz-Labourdette, Diego; Martínez, Felipe; Martín-López, Berta; Montes, Carlos; Pineda, Francisco D

2011-05-01

Mediterranean mountains harbour some of Europe's highest floristic richness. This is accounted for largely by the mesoclimatic variety in these areas, along with the co-occurrence of a small area of Eurosiberian, Boreal and Mediterranean species, and those of Tertiary Subtropical origin. Throughout the twenty-first century, we are likely to witness a climate change-related modification of the biogeographic scenario in these mountains, and there is therefore a need for accurate climate regionalisations to serve as a reference of the abundance and distribution of species and communities, particularly those of a relictic nature. This paper presents an objective mapping method focussing on climate regions in a mountain range. The procedure was tested in the Cordillera Central Mountains of the Iberian Peninsula, in the western Mediterranean, one of the ranges occupying the largest area of the Mediterranean Basin. This regionalisation is based upon multivariate analyses and upon detailed cartography employing 27 climatic variables. We used spatial interpolation of data based on geographic information. We detected high climatic diversity in the mountain range studied. We identified 13 climatic regions, all of which form a varying mosaic throughout the annual temperature and rainfall cycle. This heterogeneity results from two geographically opposed gradients. The first one is the Mediterranean-Euro-Siberian variation of the mountain range. The second gradient involves the degree of oceanicity, which is negatively related to distance from the Atlantic Ocean. The existing correlation between the climatic regions detected and the flora existing therein enables the results to be situated within the projected trends of global warming, and their biogeographic and ecological consequences to be analysed.

Climate Outreach Using Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System Portals

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, D. M.; Hernandez, D. L.; Wakely, A.; Bochenek, R. J.; Bickel, A.

2015-12-01

Coastal oceans are dynamic, changing environments affected by processes ranging from seconds to millennia. On the east and west coast of the U.S., regional observing systems have deployed and sustained a remarkable diverse array of observing tools and sensors. Data portals visualize and provide access to real-time sensor networks. Portals have emerged as an interactive tool for educators to help students explore and understand climate. Bringing data portals to outreach events, into classrooms, and onto tablets and smartphones enables educators to address topics and phenomena happening right now. For example at the 2015 Charleston Science Technology Engineering and Math (STEM) Festival, visitors navigated the SECOORA (Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing regional Association) data portal to view the real-time marine meteorological conditions off South Carolina. Map-based entry points provide an intuitive interface for most students, an array of time series and other visualizations depict many of the essential principles of climate science manifest in the coastal zone, and data down-load/ extract options provide access to the data and documentation for further inquiry by advanced users. Beyond the exposition of climate principles, the portal experience reveals remarkable technologies in action and shows how the observing system is enabled by the activity of many different partners.

Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

Science.gov (United States)

Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

2016-04-01

The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

An Agent-Based Reasoning of Impacts of Regional Climate Changes on Land Use Changes in the Three-River Headwaters Region of China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tao Zhang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The land surface in Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR, a typical ecological fragile zone of China, is quite sensitive to the climate changes which will destabilize certain ecosystem services valuable to the entire nation and neighboring countries. This study aimed to analyze the impacts of climate changes and agents’ adaptive behaviors on the regional land use changes with the agent based model (ABM. First, the main agents were extracted according to the production resources endowments and socioeconomic background. Then the agents’ land use behaviors were analyzed and parameterized. Thereafter, the ABM model was built to simulate the impacts of the climate changes on the regional land use changes and agents’ economic benefits. The results showed that the land use changes were mainly characterized by the increase of grassland and decrease of unused land area. Besides, the agents would get more wealth under the scenario without climate changes in the long term, even though the total income is lower than that under the scenario with climate changes. In addition, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the model is sensitive to the climatic conditions, market price of agricultural and animal husbandry products, government subsidies, and cost control.

Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Forest, Chris E. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology; Barsugli, Joseph J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). CIRES; Li, Wei [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology

2015-02-20

The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

A regional response to global climate change: New England and eastern Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Houtman, N.

1994-01-01

Resource managers, scientists, and policy makers from New England and eastern Canada assembled at a 1993 symposium to consider the regional implications of global climate change and to develop state and provincial adaptation strategies. A summary is presented of issues discussed at this meeting, information gaps identified, and recommendations for an appropriate regional response. The symposium began with a regional overview and a review of the climate system and possible environmental impacts of global warming. Policy implications were also discussed. Working groups considered issues related to energy use, ecosystems, fisheries, forestry and agriculture, recreation and tourism, and sea level rise. Given the remaining uncertainties about the timing and extent of global warming, especially on a regional scale, the symposium recommended adoption of a series of measures which are beneficial in their own right and in the face of present variations of climate and its extremes. The recommendations were characterized by three broad themes: diversification of the natural resources based economy; risks to human health, ecological communities, and economic infrastructure; and information development and sharing. Proposed strategies were grouped in four major categories: adaptation to future changes; trend assessment; education; and limitation of greenhouse gas emissions

Climatic change of summer temperature and precipitation in the Alpine region - a statistical-dynamical assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heimann, D.; Sept, V.

1998-12-01

Climatic changes in the Alpine region due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are assessed by using statistical-dynamical downscaling. The downscaling procedure is applied to two 30-year periods (1971-2000 and 2071-2100, summer months only) of the output of a transient coupled ocean/atmosphere climate scenario simulation. The downscaling results for the present-day climate are in sufficient agreement with observations. The estimated regional climate change during the next 100 years shows a general warming. The mean summer temperatures increase by about 3 to more than 5 Kelvin. The most intense climatic warming is predicted in the western parts of the Alps. The amount of summer precipitation decreases in most parts of central Europe by more than 20 percent. Only over the Adriatic area and parts of eastern central Europe an increase in precipitation is simulated. The results are compared with observed trends and results of regional climate change simulations of other authors. The observed trends and the majority of the simulated trends agree with our results. However, there are also climate change estimates which completely contradict with ours. (orig.) 29 refs.

Effects of Climatic Region on Peritonitis Risk, Microbiology, Treatment, and Outcomes: a Multicenter Registry Study

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, Yeoungjee; Badve, Sunil V.; Hawley, Carmel M.; McDonald, Stephen P.; Brown, Fiona G.; Boudville, Neil; Wiggins, Kathryn J.; Bannister, Kym M.; Clayton, Philip; Johnson, David W.

2013-01-01

♦ Background: The impact of climatic variations on peritoneal dialysis (PD)-related peritonitis has not been studied in detail. The aim of the current study was to determine whether various climatic zones influenced the probability of occurrence or the clinical outcomes of peritonitis. ♦ Methods: Using ANZDATA registry data, the study in cluded all Australian patients receiving PD between 1 October 2003 and 31 December 2008. Climatic regions were defined according to the Köppen classification. ♦ Results: The overall peritonitis rate was 0.59 episodes per patient-year. Most of the patients lived in Temperate regions (65%), with others residing in Subtropical (26%), Tropical (6%), and Other climatic regions (Desert, 0.6%; Grassland, 2.3%). Compared with patients in Temperate regions, those in Tropical regions demonstrated significantly higher overall peritonitis rates and a shorter time to a first peritonitis episode [adjusted hazard ratio: 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01 to 1.31]. Culture-negative peritonitis was significantly less likely in Tropical regions [adjusted odds ratio (OR): 0.42; 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.73]; its occurrence in Subtropical and Other regions was comparable to that in Temperate regions. Fungal peritonitis was independently associated with Tropical regions (OR: 2.18; 95% CI: 1.22 to 3.90) and Other regions (OR: 3.46; 95% CI: 1.73 to 6.91), where rates of antifungal prophylaxis were also lower. Outcomes after first peritonitis episodes were comparable in all groups. ♦ Conclusions: Tropical regions were associated with a higher overall peritonitis rate (including fungal peritonitis) and a shorter time to a first peritonitis episode. Augmented peritonitis prophylactic measures such as antifungal therapy and exit-site care should be considered in PD patients residing in Tropical climates. PMID:22942270

Climate Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in the Source Region of Yangtze River

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Y.; Berndtsson, R.; An, D.; Yuan, F.

2017-12-01

Variability of precipitation regime has significant influence on the environment sustainability in the source region of Yangtze River, especially when the vegetation degradation and biodiversity reduction have already occurred. Understanding the linkage between variability of local precipitation and global teleconnection patterns is essential for water resources management. Based on physical reasoning, indices of the climate drivers can provide a practical way of predicting precipitation. Due to high seasonal variability of precipitation, climate drivers of the seasonal precipitation also varies. However, few reports have gone through the teleconnections between large scale patterns with seasonal precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) assessment of temporal trend and spatial variability of precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River; (2) identification of climate indices with strong influence on seasonal precipitation anomalies; (3) prediction of seasonal precipitation based on revealed climate indices. Principal component analysis and Spearman rank correlation were used to detect significant relationships. A feed-forward artificial neural network(ANN) was developed to predict seasonal precipitation using significant correlated climate indices. Different influencing climate indices were revealed for precipitation in each season, with significant level and lag times. Significant influencing factors were selected to be the predictors for ANN model. With correlation coefficients between observed and simulated precipitation over 0.5, the results were eligible to predict the precipitation of spring, summer and winter using teleconnections, which can improve integrated water resources management in the source region of Yangtze River.

Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

Science.gov (United States)

Leduc, Martin; Laprise, René

2009-05-01

Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the “perfect model” approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 × 100 grid points). The permanent “spatial spin-up” corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere.

Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leduc, Martin [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada); UQAM/Ouranos, Montreal, QC (Canada); Laprise, Rene [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada)

2009-05-15

Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the ''perfect model'' approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 x 100 grid points). The permanent ''spatial spin-up'' corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere. (orig.)

A Structural Equation Model of Knowledge Management Based On Organizational Climate in Universities

OpenAIRE

F. Nazem; M. Mozaiini; A. Seifi

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to provide a structural model of knowledge management in universities based on organizational climate. The population of the research included all employees of Islamic Azad University (IAU). The sample consisted of 1590 employees selected using stratified and cluster random sampling method. The research instruments were two questionnaires which were administered in 78 IAU branches and education centers: Sallis and Jones’s (2002) Knowledge Management Questi...

Use of regional climate models data for groundwater recharge modelling in Baltic artesian basin

Science.gov (United States)

Timuhins, A.; Klints, I.; Sennikovs, J.; Virbulis, J.

2012-04-01

Baltic artesian basin (BAB) covers about 480000 square kilometres. BAB includes territory of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, parts of Poland, Russia, Belarus and Baltic Sea. The closed hydrogeological mathematical model for the BAB is developed in University of Latvia and reference calculations made in steady state mode. No-flow boundary condition is applied on the bottom and side boundaries of BAB. Hydraulic head is fixed on the seabed and largest lakes, and along the main river lines. Main water supply wells also are presented in the model as a pointwise water extraction. Precipitation is the main source of the groundwater recharge in the BAB region. Infiltration parameterization is responsible for this water source in BAB model. During the early stage of calibration of BAB hydrogeological model an automatic calibration for the hydraulic conductivities of permeable layers and single infiltration rate was attempted. Performing BAB model calibration it was noted that the differences of calculated and observed hydraulic heads (used for calculating the calibration penalty function) can be reduced by introducing a spatially distributed infiltration model. The aim of the present study is improving of the infiltration model, as well as preserving a short computation time (several minutes) for the piezometric head. Direct solution of improvement of the infiltration would be a usage of the advanced hydrological models. However, an accurate hydrological model requires a lot of computational power. It should couple meteorological and hydrological parameters and requires additional calibration. The regional climate model (KNMI-RACMO2 25 km resolution) results from ENSEMBLES project are used for the spatially distributed infiltration field calculation. The infiltration field is constructed as weighted difference of 30 year averaged precipitation and evaporation fields. The weight value is calibrated and a considerable decrease of the value of penalty function of the groundwater

Implications of climate change in the ROPME region: an overview

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hassan, M.E.; Gerges, M.A.

1994-12-31

The Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME) region is divided into three areas: SA-I, the northern part of the Arabian Sea bounded by the south coast of the Sultanate of Oman, the mouth of the Gulf of Oman and the southern coast of the Islamic Republic of Iran; SA-II, the Gulf of Oman; and SA-III named as the Persian or Arabian Gulf. SA-I is the prime representative of the monsoonal weather system, which produces strong summertime upwelling resulting in rich fisheries that disappear in the winter. SA-II shows transition between the monsoonal system and the desert belt climate of SA-III. Its shallowness mean that the annual range of water temperature is the greatest for any water body freely connected to the world ocean. This restricts the ecosystems that can survive. It also enhances the effect of sea level rise on the tidal pattern. Because the SA-III region is the world`s major oil and gas extraction area, resulting land subsidence can produce an apparent sea level rise of the same order of magnitude as that postulated from expected climate change. Observed sea level rise could be twice the global rate. The shallowness of the area means that the change of tidal pattern resulting from the change of depth will be very dramatic. To help combat climate change it is recommended that: a high quality dense tide recording network be set up and connected to a land subsidence recording network; a regional central data collecting and data processing centre be identified in the region; an active participation in international relevant programs such as TOGA and GOOS by ROPME Member States be maintained; and environmental non-Governmental Organizationsshould be encouraged to publicise these issues.

Building an Entrepreneurial University in Brazil: The Role and Potential of University-Industry Linkages in Promoting Regional Economic Development

Science.gov (United States)

Amaral, Marcelo; Ferreira, Andre; Teodoro, Pitias

2011-01-01

This study is part of a broader research project, conducted by the Triple Helix Research Group--Brazil, focusing on university-industry-government linkages in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The case study reported here is that of the Regional University of Volta Redonda: the aim was to develop an understanding of how a regional university can be…

Performance of ALADIN-Climate/CZ over the area of the Czech Republic in comparison with ENSEMBLES regional climate models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Crhová, L.; Holtanova, E.; Kalvová, J.; Farda, Aleš

2014-01-01

Roč. 58, č. 1 (2014), s. 148-169 ISSN 0039-3169 R&D Projects: GA MŽP(CZ) SP/1A6/108/07 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : regional climate model * climate model performance * Taylor diagram * skill score Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.806, year: 2014

Is climatic regionalization in frame of estimated pedologic-ecological system actual in 21st century?

Science.gov (United States)

Středová, Hana; Chuchma, Filip

2014-09-01

Climatic variables defining climatic regions of estimated pedologic-ecological system (EPEU) were calculated based on fifty-year climatic data from 1961 to 2010. Obtained results were subsequently compared to intervals determining individual climatic regions defined by previous climatic data (1901-1950). In many agricultural intense areas sum of air temperature and mean air temperature exceeded upper limit. In terms of precipitation it is especially noticeable in the wet (higher) altitudes. Significant volatility was found for probability of dry periods from April to September. The values of the moisture certainty from April to September for the period 1961-2010 reached to several tens. In the final analysis, the only safe prediction is that the present and future are likely to be very different from the past. It is necessary to take it into account for actualization of EPEU methodology. Among the strongest arguments justifying the need of this actualization is in particular climate development since 1901, technological progress and improved measurement technology as well as automation and development of climate models coupled with simulations of complex characteristics and estimates of future climate. It is evident that the development of climate and other factors have an enormous impact on soil fertility. This should be also taken into consideration when fixing the official price. It is necessary to consider the possible replacement of the existing characteristics by more suitable (for example soil moisture balance). The findings might be summarized in few words: old climatic regions do not reflect actual climatic conditions.

The vulnerability of tourism and recreation in the National Capital Region to climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scott, D; Jones, B. [Waterloo Univ., ON (Canada). Faculty of Environmental Studies; Khaled, H.A. [National Capital Commission, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

2005-03-15

The potential impact of climate change on recreation and tourism in Canada's National Capital Region was assessed. The objectives of the study were to examine two important issues, including how climate change will influence the seasonality of major recreation and tourism segments in the winter and summer months. The study analysed the disparate vulnerability of recreation and tourism segments to climate variability and change, explored risks and opportunities for recreation and tourism in the region, and examined management adaptation strategies. The study was conducted in several phases involving consultation meetings with National Capital Commission staff, data compilation and development of climate change scenarios. This was followed by a climate change impact assessment. The report also provided information on the methodology used for the study and on climate change impact indicators. It was concluded that as a result of climate change, the Winterlude season would become shorter and that the timeframe for skating on the Rideau Canal was projected to be shortened. 61 refs., 23 tabs., 20 figs., 2 appendices.

Importance of ensembles in projecting regional climate trends

Science.gov (United States)

Arritt, Raymond; Daniel, Ariele; Groisman, Pavel

2016-04-01

We have performed an ensemble of simulations using RegCM4 to examine the ability to reproduce observed trends in precipitation intensity and to project future changes through the 21st century for the central United States. We created a matrix of simulations over the CORDEX North America domain for 1950-2099 by driving the regional model with two different global models (HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M, both for RCP8.5), by performing simulations at both 50 km and 25 km grid spacing, and by using three different convective parameterizations. The result is a set of 12 simulations (two GCMs by two resolutions by three convective parameterizations) that can be used to systematically evaluate the influence of simulation design on predicted precipitation. The two global models were selected to bracket the range of climate sensitivity in the CMIP5 models: HadGEM2-ES has the highest ECS of the CMIP5 models, while GFDL-ESM2M has one of the lowestt. Our evaluation metrics differ from many other RCM studies in that we focus on the skill of the models in reproducing past trends rather than the mean climate state. Trends in frequency of extreme precipitation (defined as amounts exceeding 76.2 mm/day) for most simulations are similar to the observed trend but with notable variations depending on RegCM4 configuration and on the driving GCM. There are complex interactions among resolution, choice of convective parameterization, and the driving GCM that carry over into the future climate projections. We also note that biases in the current climate do not correspond to biases in trends. As an example of these points the Emanuel scheme is consistently "wet" (positive bias in precipitation) yet it produced the smallest precipitation increase of the three convective parameterizations when used in simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES. However, it produced the largest increase when driven by GFDL-ESM2M. These findings reiterate that ensembles using multiple RCM configurations and driving GCMs are

Regional climate models downscaling in the Alpine area with multimodel superensemble

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Cane

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The climatic scenarios show a strong signal of warming in the Alpine area already for the mid-XXI century. The climate simulations, however, even when obtained with regional climate models (RCMs, are affected by strong errors when compared with observations, due both to their difficulties in representing the complex orography of the Alps and to limitations in their physical parametrization. Therefore, the aim of this work is to reduce these model biases by using a specific post processing statistic technique, in order to obtain a more suitable projection of climate change scenarios in the Alpine area. For our purposes we used a selection of regional climate models (RCMs runs which were developed in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project. They were carefully chosen with the aim to maximise the variety of leading global climate models and of the RCMs themselves, calculated on the SRES scenario A1B. The reference observations for the greater Alpine area were extracted from the European dataset E-OBS (produced by the ENSEMBLES project, which have an available resolution of 25 km. For the study area of Piedmont daily temperature and precipitation observations (covering the period from 1957 to the present were carefully gridded on a 14 km grid over Piedmont region through the use of an optimal interpolation technique. Hence, we applied the multimodel superensemble technique to temperature fields, reducing the high biases of RCMs temperature field compared to observations in the control period. We also proposed the application of a brand new probabilistic multimodel superensemble dressing technique, already applied to weather forecast models successfully, to RCMS: the aim was to estimate precipitation fields, with careful description of precipitation probability density functions conditioned to the model outputs. This technique allowed for reducing the strong precipitation overestimation, arising from the use of RCMs, over the Alpine chain and to

Regional climate models downscaling in the Alpine area with multimodel superensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Cane, D.; Barbarino, S.; Renier, L. A.; Ronchi, C.

2013-05-01

The climatic scenarios show a strong signal of warming in the Alpine area already for the mid-XXI century. The climate simulations, however, even when obtained with regional climate models (RCMs), are affected by strong errors when compared with observations, due both to their difficulties in representing the complex orography of the Alps and to limitations in their physical parametrization. Therefore, the aim of this work is to reduce these model biases by using a specific post processing statistic technique, in order to obtain a more suitable projection of climate change scenarios in the Alpine area. For our purposes we used a selection of regional climate models (RCMs) runs which were developed in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project. They were carefully chosen with the aim to maximise the variety of leading global climate models and of the RCMs themselves, calculated on the SRES scenario A1B. The reference observations for the greater Alpine area were extracted from the European dataset E-OBS (produced by the ENSEMBLES project), which have an available resolution of 25 km. For the study area of Piedmont daily temperature and precipitation observations (covering the period from 1957 to the present) were carefully gridded on a 14 km grid over Piedmont region through the use of an optimal interpolation technique. Hence, we applied the multimodel superensemble technique to temperature fields, reducing the high biases of RCMs temperature field compared to observations in the control period. We also proposed the application of a brand new probabilistic multimodel superensemble dressing technique, already applied to weather forecast models successfully, to RCMS: the aim was to estimate precipitation fields, with careful description of precipitation probability density functions conditioned to the model outputs. This technique allowed for reducing the strong precipitation overestimation, arising from the use of RCMs, over the Alpine chain and to reproduce well the

Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

Science.gov (United States)

Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

2013-04-01

For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

Measuring Student Improvement in Lower- and Upper-Level University Climate Science Courses

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, S. E.; Taylor, S. V.; Schoonmaker, J. E.; Lane, E.; Francois, R. H.; Austin, P.

2011-12-01

What do university students know about climate? What do they learn in a climate course? On the second-to-last day of a course about global climate change, only 48% of our upper-level science students correctly answered a multiple-choice question about the greenhouse effect. The good news: improvement. Only 16% had answered correctly on the first day of class. The bad news: the learning opportunities we've provided appear to have missed more than half the class on a fundamental climate concept. To evaluate the effectiveness of instruction on student learning about climate, we have developed a prototype assessment tool, designed to be deployed as a low-stakes pre-post test. The items included were validated through student interviews to ensure that students interpret the wording and answer choices in the way we intend. This type of validated assessment, administered both at the beginning and end of term, with matched individuals, provides insight regarding the baseline knowledge with which our students enter a course, and the impact of that course on their learning. We administered test items to students in (1) an upper-level climate course for science majors and (2) a lower-level climate course open to all students. Some items were given to both groups, others to only one of the groups. Both courses use evidence-based pedagogy with active student engagement (clickers, small group activities, regular pre-class preparation). Our results with upper-level students show strong gains in student thinking (>70% of students who missed a question on the pre-test answered correctly on the post-test) about stock-and-flow (box model) problems, annual cycles in the Keeling curve, ice-albedo feedbacks, and isotopic fractionation. On different questions, lower-level students showed strong gains regarding albedo and blackbody emission spectra. Both groups show similar baseline knowledge and lower-than-expected gains on greenhouse effect fundamentals, and zero gain regarding the

15 local climate-energy plans: regions and districts, local leaders of the struggle against climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

This report presents some general information, the sectors addressed by the Climate - Energy Plan, the approaches adopted, the plan elaboration process (organisation, participation and governance, diagnosis and challenges identification, communication actions), the actions and their follow-up, the success factors and the improvement opportunities of the Climate-energy Plans elaborated and adopted by different French regions (Alsace, Aquitaine, Basse-Normandie, Champagne-Ardenne, Franche-Comte, Haute-Normandie, Languedoc-Roussillon, Limousin, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Poitou-Charentes) and districts (Alpes Maritimes, Bas-Rhin, Eure, Seine-Maritime)

Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, M.V.; Pace, M.L.; Mather, J.R.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Howarth, R.W.; Folt, C.L.; Chen, C.-Y.; Hemond, Harold F.; Flebbe, P.A.; Driscoll, C.T.

1997-01-01

Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 ??CO2 atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3-5??C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be

Tropospheric aerosols radiation feedback on the climate of Pearl River Delta Region using an air quality model

Science.gov (United States)

Nduka, I. C.

2016-12-01

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, one of the most vibrant economic regions in China has been witnessing rapid population, economic and structural growth and development. It is also one of the regions mostly polluted with trace gases and particulates. Recent reviews show large uncertainties in climate modification studies, indicating the need for further investigations, such as the role of tropospheric aerosols on direct and indirect climate modification. The aim of this research is to appraise the impacts of tropospheric aerosols on the climate of PRD region. An integrated air quality downscale meteorology and air quality from regional scale (27km) to local scale (3km). The model will be evaluated for both meteorology and air quality by comparing model results with measurements. The radiative forcing of tropospheric aerosols will also be determined so as to estimate the feedbacks and impacts on the climate. This research, when completed, is expected to improve our understanding of tropospheric aerosol-cloud thermodynamic interactions at regional and local scales, thus enhancing our knowledge of the regional and local climate system, which is anticipated to provide critical references for formulating sustainable environment and air quality policies.

Analysis of the Effect of Interior Nudging on Temperature and Precipitation Distributions of Multi-year Regional Climate Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Nolte, C. G.; Otte, T. L.; Bowden, J. H.; Otte, M. J.

2010-12-01

There is disagreement in the regional climate modeling community as to the appropriateness of the use of internal nudging. Some investigators argue that the regional model should be minimally constrained and allowed to respond to regional-scale forcing, while others have noted that in the absence of interior nudging, significant large-scale discrepancies develop between the regional model solution and the driving coarse-scale fields. These discrepancies lead to reduced confidence in the ability of regional climate models to dynamically downscale global climate model simulations under climate change scenarios, and detract from the usability of the regional simulations for impact assessments. The advantages and limitations of interior nudging schemes for regional climate modeling are investigated in this study. Multi-year simulations using the WRF model driven by reanalysis data over the continental United States at 36km resolution are conducted using spectral nudging, grid point nudging, and for a base case without interior nudging. The means, distributions, and inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation will be evaluated in comparison to regional analyses.

Sensitivity of simulated maize crop yields to regional climate in the Southwestern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, S.; Myoung, B.; Stack, D.; Kim, J.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kafatos, M.

2013-12-01

The sensitivity of maize yield to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States (SW US) has been investigated by using a crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings (daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, and radiation) from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. The primary focus of this study is to look at the effects of interannual variations of atmospheric components on the crop productivity in the SW US over the 21-year period (1991 to 2011). First of all, characteristics and performance of APSIM was examined by comparing simulated maize yields with observed yields from United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the leaf-area index (LAI) from MODIS satellite data. Comparisons of the simulated maize yield with the available observations show that the crop model can reasonably reproduce observed maize yields. Sensitivity tests were performed to assess the relative contribution of each climate driver to regional crop yield. Sensitivity experiments show that potential crop production responds nonlinearly to climate drivers and the yield sensitivity varied among geographical locations depending on their mean climates. Lastly, a detailed analysis of both the spatial and temporal variations of each climate driver in the regions where maize is actually grown in three states (CA, AZ, and NV) in the SW US was performed.

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the North Cascades region, Washington

Science.gov (United States)

Crystal L. Raymond; David L. Peterson; Regina M. Rochefort

2014-01-01

The North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership (NCAP) is a science-management partnership consisting of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Mount Baker-Snoqualmie and Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forests and Pacific Northwest Research Station; North Cascades National Park Complex; Mount Rainier National Park; and University of Washington Climate Impacts Group....

Climatic change and environmental implications in the Medicine Hat region using Billings, Montana as an analogue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Proudfoot, W.A.

1994-01-01

There is concern that climatic change due to anthropogenic enhancement of the greenhouse effect may have considerable impacts on the natural and agricultural environments in Canada. The Palliser Triangle in the southern prairie region is an area in which the impacts of climatic change could be significant; it is an important agricultural zone and is already sensitive due to its semi-arid climate. The possible effects of a change in the climate of the Medicine Hat (Alberta) area in the Palliser Triangle is examined through the use of a regional analogue in a warmer, more southerly area. The selected analogue region is the area around Billings, Montana. Aspects of the natural environment, including potential vegetation distribution, frost-free period, and drought, as well as aspects of the agricultural environment, including agricultural practices and examination of wheat yields, are studied within each region. Comparisons are drawn between the two regions to evaluate whether significant differences exist in the environmental aspects examined. It is shown that although a change in Medicine Hat's climate to one more like that of Billings may not have drastic impacts on the environment, such a change may require adjustments in current practices or adaptations to altered environmental conditions. Reviews of several policy areas will be necessary to ensure appropriate adjustments in agricultural or resource management practices. Regional analogy is shown to be an essential preliminary tool for determining possible effects of climatic change. 138 refs., 42 figs., 22 tabs

The WMO RA VI Regional Climate Centre Network - a support to users in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Rösner, S.

2012-04-01

Climate, like weather, has no limits. Therefore the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized United Nations organization, has established a three-level infrastructure to better serve its member countries. This structure comprises Global Producing Centres for Long-range Forecasts (GPCs), Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and National Meteorological or Hydrometeorological Services (NMHSs), in most cases representing their countries in WMO governance bodies. The elements of this infrastructure are also part of and contribute to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) agreed to be established by World Climate Conference 3 (WCC-3) and last year's Sixteenth World Meteorological Congress (WMO Cg-XVI). RCCs are the core element of this infrastructure at the regional level and are being establish in all WMO Regional Associations (RAs), i.e. Africa (RA I); Asia (II); South America (III); North America, Central America and the Caribbean (IV); South-West Pacific (V); Europe (VI). Addressing inter-regional areas of common interest like the Mediterranean or the Polar Regions may require inter-regional RCCs. For each region the RCCs follow a user driven approach with regard to governance and structure as well as products generated for the users in the respective region. However, there are common guidelines all RCCs do have to follow. This is to make sure that services are provided based on best scientific standards, are routinely and reliably generated and made available in an operational mode. These guidelines are being developed within WMO and make use of decade-long experience gained in the business of operational weather forecast. Based on the requirements of the 50 member countries of WMO RA VI it was agreed to establish the WMO RCC as a network of centres of excellence that create regional products including long-range forecasts that support regional and national climate activities, and thereby strengthen the capacity of WMO Members in the region to

Impact of surface waves in a Regional Climate Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rutgersson, Anna; Sætra, Oyvind; Semedo, Alvaro

2010-01-01

A coupled regional atmosphere-wave model system is developed with the purpose of investigating the impact of climate changes on the wave field, as well as feed-back effects of the wave field on the atmospheric parameters. This study focuses on the effects of introducing a two-way atmosphere...

Climate change and the future of natural disturbances in the central hardwood region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dale, Virginia H [ORNL; Hughes, M. Joseph [University of Tennessee (UT); Hayes, Daniel J [ORNL

2015-01-01

The spatial patterns and ecological processes of the southeastern upland hardwood forests have evolved to reflect past climatic conditions and natural disturbance regimes. Changes in climate can lead to disturbances that exceed their natural range of variation, and the impacts of these changes will depend on the vulnerability or resiliency of these ecosystems. Global Circulation Models generally project annual increases in temperature across the southeastern United States over the coming decades, but changes in precipitation are less consistent. Even more unclear is how climate change might affect future trends in the severity and frequency of natural disturbances, such as severe storms, fires, droughts, floods, and insect outbreaks. Here, we use a time-series satellite data record to map the spatial pattern and severity of broad classes of natural disturbances the southeast region. The data derived from this map allow analysis of regional-scale trends in natural and anthropogenic disturbances in the region over the last three decades. Throughout the region, between 5% and 25% of forest land is affected by some sort of disturbance each year since 1985. The time series reveals periodic droughts that themselves are widespread and of low severity but are associated with more localized, high-severity disturbances such as fire and insect outbreaks. The map also reveals extensive anthropogenic disturbance across the region in the form of forest conversion related to resource extraction and urban and residential development. We discuss how changes in climate and disturbance regimes might affect southeastern forests in the future via altering the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of these ecosystems. Changes in climate are highly likely to expose southeastern forests to more frequent and severe disturbances, but ultimately how vulnerable or resilient southeastern forests are to these changes will depend on their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to these novel

Regional climate simulations with COSMO-CLM over MENA-CORDEX domain

Science.gov (United States)

Galluccio, Salvatore; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Mercogliano, Paola; Montesarchio, Myriam

2014-05-01

In the frame of WCRP Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), a set of common Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD) domains has been defined, as a prerequisite for the development of model evaluation and climate projection frameworks. CORDEX domains encompass the majority of land areas of the world. In this work, climate simulations have been performed over MENA-CORDEX domain, which includes North-Africa, southern Europe and the whole Arabian peninsula. The non-hydrostatic regional climate model COSMO-CLM has been used. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks. A series of simulations has been conducted over the MENA-CORDEX area at spatial resolution of 0.44°. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to adjust the model configuration to better reproduce the observed climate data. The numerical simulations were driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis (horizontal resolution of 0.703°) for the period 1979-1984; the first year, was considered as a spin up period. The validation was performed by using several data sets: CRU data set was used to validate temperature, precipitation and cloud cover; MERRA data set was used to validate temperature and precipitation and GPCP for precipitation. The model sensitivity to the external parameters was tested considering two different configurations for the surface albedo. In the first one, albedo is only function of soil-type whereas in the second configuration it is prescribed by two external fields for dry and saturated soil based on MODIS data. Moreover, we tested two aerosol distributions as well, namely the default Tanre aerosol distribution and aerosol maps according to Tegen (NASA/GISS). We found, as expected, a significant sensitivity, in particular on the African region. We also varied tuning and physical parameters, such

Distributed Research Center for Analysis of Regional Climatic Changes and Their Impacts on Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Shiklomanov, A. I.; Okladnikov, I.; Gordov, E. P.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Titov, A. G.

2016-12-01

Presented is a collaborative project carrying out by joint team of researchers from the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Russia and Earth Systems Research Center, University of New Hampshire, USA. Its main objective is development of a hardware and software prototype of Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and and their impacts on the environment over the Northern extratropical areas. In the framework of the project new approaches to "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets (big geospatial data) are being developed. It will be deployed on technical platforms of both institutions and applied in research of climate change and its consequences. Datasets available at NCEI and IMCES include multidimensional arrays of climatic, environmental, demographic, and socio-economic characteristics. The project is aimed at solving several major research and engineering tasks: 1) structure analysis of huge heterogeneous climate and environmental geospatial datasets used in the project, their preprocessing and unification; 2) development of a new distributed storage and processing model based on a "shared nothing" paradigm; 3) development of a dedicated database of metadata describing geospatial datasets used in the project; 4) development of a dedicated geoportal and a high-end graphical frontend providing intuitive user interface, internet-accessible online tools for analysis of geospatial data and web services for interoperability with other geoprocessing software packages. DRC will operate as a single access point to distributed archives of spatial data and online tools for their processing. Flexible modular computational engine running verified data processing routines will provide solid results of geospatial data analysis. "Cloud" data analysis and visualization approach will guarantee access to the DRC online tools and data from all over the world. Additionally, exporting of data

The WASCAL high-resolution regional climate simulation ensemble for West Africa: concept, dissemination and assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Heinzeller

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Climate change and constant population growth pose severe challenges to 21st century rural Africa. Within the framework of the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL, an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change scenarios for the greater West African region is provided to support the development of effective adaptation and mitigation measures. This contribution presents the overall concept of the WASCAL regional climate simulations, as well as detailed information on the experimental design, and provides information on the format and dissemination of the available data. All data are made available to the public at the CERA long-term archive of the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ with a subset available at the PANGAEA Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science portal (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.880512. A brief assessment of the data are presented to provide guidance for future users. Regional climate projections are generated at high (12 km and intermediate (60 km resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF. The simulations cover the validation period 1980–2010 and the two future periods 2020–2050 and 2070–2100. A brief comparison to observations and two climate change scenarios from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX initiative is presented to provide guidance on the data set to future users and to assess their climate change signal. Under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, the results suggest an increase in temperature by 1.5 °C at the coast of Guinea and by up to 3 °C in the northern Sahel by the end of the 21st century, in line with existing climate projections for the region. They also project an increase in precipitation by up to 300 mm per year along the coast of Guinea, by up to 150 mm per year in the Soudano region adjacent in the north and almost no change in

Inclusive Education of Students with Disabilities in the Regional Multidisciplinary University: The Experience of Cherepovets State University

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Denisova O.A.,

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This article describes the regional experience of teaching students with disabilities in a multidisciplinary university. Analysis of resources and algorithms of educational support provided at the university creates the opportunity to share this experience and to evaluate its significance for the development of higher inclusive education, as well as to assess the perspectives for its application in similar educational environments. Consulting, education, coordination and rehabilitation services are the main forms of assistance to students and teachers at all stages of education and socialization of people with disabilities. The university has a department that provides support to students with disabilities and their teachers. The analysis of the successes and challenges of higher education of persons with disabilities shows that there is an objective need to unite the efforts of the university with the regional non-governmental organizations and the authorities of the region, with health care, education and social services in order to support young people with disabilities.

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valerie Steen

Full Text Available The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs. We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971-2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981-2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040-2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%. However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper to -100% (Wilson's Snipe. Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

Adaptation to Climate Change in Panchase Mountain Ecological Regions of Nepal

OpenAIRE

Shankar Adhikari; Himlal Baral; Craig Nitschke

2018-01-01

Rural mountain communities in developing countries are considered particularly vulnerable to environmental change, including climate change. Forests and agriculture provide numerous ecosystem goods and services (EGS) to local communities and can help people adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is however poor documentation on the role of EGS in people’s livelihood and adaptation practices. This study in the rural Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of Nepal identifies practices being...

Does temperature nudging overwhelm aerosol radiative effects in regional integrated climate models?

Science.gov (United States)

For over two decades, data assimilation (popularly known as nudging) methods have been used for improving regional weather and climate simulations by reducing model biases in meteorological parameters and processes. Similar practice is also popular in many regional integrated met...

Regional and global climate for the mid-Pliocene using the University of Toronto version of CCSM4 and PlioMIP2 boundary conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Chandan

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2 is an international collaboration to simulate the climate of the mid-Pliocene interglacial, corresponding to marine isotope stage KM5c (3.205 Mya, using a wide selection of climate models with the objective of understanding the nature of the warming that is known to have occurred during the broader mid-Pliocene warm period. PlioMIP2 builds on the successes of PlioMIP by shifting the focus to a specific interglacial and using a revised set of geographic and orbital boundary conditions. In this paper, we present the details of the mid-Pliocene simulations that we have performed with a slightly modified version of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4 and the enhanced variant of the PlioMIP2 boundary conditions. We discuss the simulated climatology through comparisons to our control simulations and to proxy reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene climate. With the new boundary conditions, the University of Toronto version of the CCSM4 model simulates a mid-Pliocene that is more than twice as warm as that with the boundary conditions used for PlioMIP Phase 1. The warming is more enhanced near the high latitudes, which is where most of the changes to the PlioMIP2 boundary conditions have been made. The elevated warming in the high latitudes leads to a better match between the simulated climatology and proxy-based reconstructions than possible with the previous version of the boundary conditions.

Regional adaptation strategies to climate change: Guidelines for urban planning in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maruna Marija

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The problems of climate change significantly alter the character of urban planning. While changes in the planning process are aimed at mechanisms for urgent action in the transformed circumstances in the sense of a deeper understanding of the causes of phenomena and prediction of future changes, modification of specific measures suppose to be related to the regulatory framework for new and existing construction that will lead to reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and the development of resistance to settlements' extreme impacts. The focus has shifted to land-use planning and the development and application of building regulations. It is considered that planning at the local level is an appropriate instrument for solving the problem of climate impacts in the community. In general, urban planning is an instrument of implementation of national strategies for mitigation and adaptation at the local level. Successful implementation of the strategy is based on a developed vertical and horizontal institutional and procedural coordination. In the circumstances of specific context of post-socialist urban restructuring, which is characterized by a lack of developed institutions and appropriate procedures, it is difficult to expect the entire application of prescribed procedures and harmonization of vertical and horizontal spatial development policies. Accordingly, it is recommended that policies be aimed at short-term improvements that are based on existing climate risk management and short-term projections of climate impacts. Among the main recommendations of the regional climate change adaptation strategies related to policy-makers in the field of urban development is to establish new and efficient use of existing legislation in the field of environment and planning. It is believed that most countries in the region have adequate legislation and efforts should be directed towards more effective implementation of existing planning and building

Validation of the Regional Climate Model ALARO with different dynamical downscaling approaches and different horizontal resolutions

Science.gov (United States)

Berckmans, Julie; Hamdi, Rafiq; De Troch, Rozemien; Giot, Olivier

2015-04-01

At the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI), climate simulations are performed with the regional climate model (RCM) ALARO, a version of the ALADIN model with improved physical parameterizations. In order to obtain high-resolution information of the regional climate, lateral bounary conditions (LBC) are prescribed from the global climate model (GCM) ARPEGE. Dynamical downscaling is commonly done in a continuous long-term simulation, with the initialisation of the model at the start and driven by the regularly updated LBCs of the GCM. Recently, more interest exists in the dynamical downscaling approach of frequent reinitializations of the climate simulations. For these experiments, the model is initialised daily and driven for 24 hours by the GCM. However, the surface is either initialised daily together with the atmosphere or free to evolve continuously. The surface scheme implemented in ALARO is SURFEX, which can be either run in coupled mode or in stand-alone mode. The regional climate is simulated on different domains, on a 20km horizontal resolution over Western-Europe and a 4km horizontal resolution over Belgium. Besides, SURFEX allows to perform a stand-alone or offline simulation on 1km horizontal resolution over Belgium. This research is in the framework of the project MASC: "Modelling and Assessing Surface Change Impacts on Belgian and Western European Climate", a 4-year project funded by the Belgian Federal Government. The overall aim of the project is to study the feedbacks between climate changes and land surface changes in order to improve regional climate model projections at the decennial scale over Belgium and Western Europe and thus to provide better climate projections and climate change evaluation tools to policy makers, stakeholders and the scientific community.

Climate Change in U.S. South Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Fisheries Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Roffer, M. A.; Hernandez, D. L.; Lamkin, J. T.; Pugliese, R.; Reichert, M.; Hall, C.

2016-02-01

A review of the recent evidence that climate change is affecting marine ecosystems in the U.S. fishery management zones of the South Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean regions will be presented. This will include affects on the living marine resources (including fish, invertebrates, marine mammals and turtles), fisheries, habitat and people. Emphasis will be given on the effects that impact managed species and the likely new challenges that they present to fishery managers. The evidence is being derived from the results of the "Climate Variability and Fisheries Workshop: Setting Research Priorities for the Gulf of Mexico, South Atlantic, and Caribbean Regions," October 26-28, 2015 in St. Petersburg Beach, Florida. Commonalities and regional differences will be presented in terms of how climate variability is likely to impact distribution, catch, catchability, socioeconomics, and management.

The influence of inter-annually varying albedo on regional climate and drought

KAUST Repository

Meng, Xianhong

2013-05-05

Albedo plays an important role in land-atmosphere interactions and local climate. This study presents the impact on simulating regional climate, and the evolution of a drought, when using the default climatological albedo as is usually done in regional climate modelling, or using the actual observed albedo which is rarely done. Here, time-varying satellite derived albedo data is used to update the lower boundary condition of the Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model in order to investigate the influence of observed albedo on regional climate simulations and also potential changes to land-atmosphere feedback over south-east Australia. During the study period from 2000 to 2008, observations show that albedo increased with an increasingly negative precipitation anomaly, though it lagged precipitation by several months. Compared to in-situ observations, using satellite observed albedo instead of the default climatological albedo provided an improvement in the simulated seasonal mean air temperature. In terms of precipitation, both simulations reproduced the drought that occurred from 2002 through 2006. Using the observed albedo produced a drier simulation overall. During the onset of the 2002 drought, albedo changes enhanced the precipitation reduction by 20 % on average, over locations where it was active. The area experiencing drought increased 6.3 % due to the albedo changes. Two mechanisms for albedo changes to impact land-atmosphere drought feedback are investigated. One accounts for the increased albedo, leading to reduced turbulent heat flux and an associated decrease of moist static energy density in the planetary boundary layer; the other considers that enhanced local radiative heating, due to the drought, favours a deeper planetary boundary layer, subsequently decreasing the moist static energy density through entrainment of the free atmosphere. Analysis shows that drought related large-scale changes in the regional climate favour a