Effect of Liquid Penetrant Sensitivity on Probability of Detection
Parker, Bradford H.
2008-01-01
The objective of the task is to investigate the effect of liquid penetrant sensitivity level on probability of crack detection (POD). NASA-STD-5009 currently requires the use of only sensitivity level 4 liquid penetrants. This requirement is based on the fact that the data generated in the NTIAC Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Capabilities Data Book was produced using only sensitivity level 4 penetrants. Many NDE contractors supporting NASA Centers routinely use sensitivity level 3 penetrants. Because of the new NASA-STD-5009 requirement, these contractors will have to either shift to sensitivity level 4 penetrants or perform formal POD demonstration tests to qualify their existing process.
Effect of Liquid Penetrant Sensitivity on Probability of Detection
Parker, Bradford H.
2011-01-01
The objective of the task is to investigate the effect of liquid penetrant sensitivity level on probability of detection (POD) of cracks in various metals. NASA-STD-5009 currently requires the use of only sensitivity level 4 liquid penetrants for NASA Standard Level inspections. This requirement is based on the fact that the data used to establish the reliably detectable flaw sizes penetrant inspection was from studies performed in the 1970s using penetrant deemed to be equivalent only to modern day sensitivity level 4 penetrants. However, many NDE contractors supporting NASA Centers routinely use sensitivity level 3 penetrants. Because of the new NASA-STD-5009 requirement, these contractors will have to either shift to sensitivity level 4 penetrants or perform formal POD demonstration tests to qualify their existing process. We propose a study to compare the POD generated for two penetrant manufactures, Sherwin and Magnaflux, and for the two most common penetrant inspection methods, water washable and post emulsifiable, hydrophilic. NDE vendors local to GSFC will be employed. A total of six inspectors will inspect a set of crack panels with a broad range of fatigue crack sizes. Each inspector will perform eight inspections of the panel set using the combination of methods and sensitivity levels described above. At least one inspector will also perform multiple inspections using a fixed technique to investigate repeatability. The hit/miss data sets will be evaluated using both the NASA generated DOEPOD software and the MIL-STD-1823 software.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Morris, J M
1986-08-01
The performance analysis of maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRV) in terms of its probability of penetration (PoP) against terminal engagement with a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system and in terms of its associate circular error probability (CEP), at impact is a very complex problem. A thorough study of this problem under the MaRV Penetration Study Project will require the development of a number of analytical and simulation tools. As a result of a preliminary study, a MaRV PoP vs CEP analysis concept has been formulated to support the MaRV Penetration Study Project. The concept is based on analytical models and techniques and, moreover, exploits the existing knowledge base and is physically intuitive. The analysis concept, as formulated, is applicable to arbitrary MaRV's and BMD systems.
Elfer, N.; Meibaum, R.; Olsen, G.
1995-01-01
A unique collection of computer codes, Space Debris Surfaces (SD_SURF), have been developed to assist in the design and analysis of space debris protection systems. SD_SURF calculates and summarizes a vehicle's vulnerability to space debris as a function of impact velocity and obliquity. An SD_SURF analysis will show which velocities and obliquities are the most probable to cause a penetration. This determination can help the analyst select a shield design that is best suited to the predominant penetration mechanism. The analysis also suggests the most suitable parameters for development or verification testing. The SD_SURF programs offer the option of either FORTRAN programs or Microsoft-EXCEL spreadsheets and macros. The FORTRAN programs work with BUMPERII. The EXCEL spreadsheets and macros can be used independently or with selected output from the SD_SURF FORTRAN programs. Examples will be presented of the interaction between space vehicle geometry, the space debris environment, and the penetration and critical damage ballistic limit surfaces of the shield under consideration.
Prediction Methods of Spudcan Penetration for Jack-up Units
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
ZHANG Ai-xia; DUAN Meng-lan; LI Hai-ming; ZHAO Jun; WANG Jian-jun
2012-01-01
Jack-up units are extensively playing a successful role in drilling engineering around the world,and their safety and efficiency take more and more attraction in both research and engineering practice:An accurate prediction of the spudcan penetration depth is quite instrumental in deciding on whether a jack-up unit is feasible to operate at the site.The prediction of a too large penetration depth may lead to the hesitation or even rejection of a site due to potential difficulties in the subsequent extraction process; the same is true of a too small depth prediction due to the problem of possible instability during operation.However,a deviation between predictive results and final field data usually exists,especially when a strong-over-soft soil is included in the strata.The ultimate decision sometimes to a great extent depends on the practical experience,not the predictive results given by the guideline.It is somewhat risky,but no choice.Therefore,a feasible predictive method for the spudcan penetration depth,especially in strata with strong-over-soft soil profile,is urgently needed by the jack-up industry.In view of this,a comprehensive investigation on methods of predicting spudcan penetration is executed.For types of different soil profiles,predictive methods for spudcan penetration depth are proposed,and the corresponding experiment is also conducted to validate these methods.In addition,to further verify the feasibility of the proposed methods,a practical engineering case encountered in the South China Sea is also presented,and the corresponding numerical and experimental results are also presented and discussed.
Hydrogeologic unit flow characterization using transition probability geostatistics.
Jones, Norman L; Walker, Justin R; Carle, Steven F
2005-01-01
This paper describes a technique for applying the transition probability geostatistics method for stochastic simulation to a MODFLOW model. Transition probability geostatistics has some advantages over traditional indicator kriging methods including a simpler and more intuitive framework for interpreting geologic relationships and the ability to simulate juxtapositional tendencies such as fining upward sequences. The indicator arrays generated by the transition probability simulation are converted to layer elevation and thickness arrays for use with the new Hydrogeologic Unit Flow package in MODFLOW 2000. This makes it possible to preserve complex heterogeneity while using reasonably sized grids and/or grids with nonuniform cell thicknesses.
Berrino, Jacopo; Berrino, Franco; Francisci, Silvia; Peissel, Bernard; Azzollini, Jacopo; Pensotti, Valeria; Radice, Paolo; Pasanisi, Patrizia; Manoukian, Siranoush
2015-03-01
We have designed the user-friendly COS software with the intent to improve estimation of the probability of a family carrying a deleterious BRCA gene mutation. The COS software is similar to the widely-used Bayesian-based BRCAPRO software, but it incorporates improved assumptions on cancer incidence in women with and without a deleterious mutation, takes into account relatives up to the fourth degree and allows researchers to consider an hypothetical third gene or a polygenic model of inheritance. Since breast cancer incidence and penetrance increase over generations, we estimated birth-cohort-specific incidence and penetrance curves. We estimated breast and ovarian cancer penetrance in 384 BRCA1 and 229 BRCA2 mutated families. We tested the COS performance in 436 Italian breast/ovarian cancer families including 79 with BRCA1 and 27 with BRCA2 mutations. The area under receiver operator curve (AUROC) was 84.4 %. The best probability threshold for offering the test was 22.9 %, with sensitivity 80.2 % and specificity 80.3 %. Notwithstanding very different assumptions, COS results were similar to BRCAPRO v6.0.
Analytical Predictions of Fragment Penetration through Hollow Concrete Masonry Units
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Bogosian
2008-01-01
Full Text Available Modeling steel casing fragment impacts on hollow CMU poses some problems, since the fragments will typically penetrate through the front face and may also penetrate the back face. Techniques are needed for predicting (a the size of the hole created by the penetration, (b the size of the annular region of damaged concrete around the hole, and (c the residual velocity of the fragment. A series of calculations using the AUTODYN code were performed to investigate the accuracy and reliability of the model. The model uses the smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH approach to represent the CMU. A variety of steel fragment sizes were projected at a layer of CMU, and the resulting hole size, damage, and fragment residual velocity were tabulated. Results were validated against existing empirical relationships to insure the model's applicability, while additional analyses demonstrated trends and parametric sensitivity.
A review of ground penetrating radar research and practice in the United Kingdom
Giannopoulos, Antonios; Alani, Amir
2014-05-01
Ground penetrating radar has been playing an important role for many years in assisting in the non-destructive evaluation of UK's built environment as well as being employed in more general shallow depth geophysical investigations. Ground penetrating radar, in the United Kingdom, has a long history of original work both in developing original research ideas on fundamental aspects of the technique, both in hardware and in software, and in exploring innovative ideas relating to the practical implementation of ground penetrating radar in a number of interesting projects. For example, the base of one of the biggest organisations that connects ground penetrating radar practitioners is in the United Kingdom. This paper will endeavour to review the current status of ground penetrating radar research - primarily carried out in UK Universities - and present some key areas and work that is carried out at a practical level - primarily by private enterprises. Although, the main effort is to concentrate on ground penetrating radar applications relating to civil engineering problems other related areas of ground penetrating radar application will also be reviewed. The aim is to create a current picture of ground penetrating radar use with a view to inform and potentially enhance the possibility of new developments and collaborations that could lead to the advancement of ground penetrating radar as a geophysical investigative method. This work is a contribution to COST Action TU1208 "Civil Engineering Applications of Ground Penetrating Radar.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2009-01-01
【说词】1. He can probably tell us the truth.2. Will it rain this afternoong ？ Probably【解语】作副词，意为“大概、或许”，表示可能性很大，通常指根据目前情况作出积极推测或判断；
Verification of Sulfate Attack Penetration Rates for Saltstone Disposal Unit Modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Flach, G. P. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)
2015-05-12
Recent Special Analysis modeling of Saltstone Disposal Units consider sulfate attack on concrete and utilize degradation rates estimated from Cementitious Barriers Partnership software simulations. This study provides an independent verification of those simulation results using an alternative analysis method and an independent characterization data source. The sulfate penetration depths estimated herein are similar to the best-estimate values in SRNL-STI-2013-00118 Rev. 2 and well below the nominal values subsequently used to define Saltstone Special Analysis base cases.
Optimal design of unit hydrographs using probability distribution and genetic algorithms
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Rajib Kumar Bhattacharjya
2004-10-01
A nonlinear optimization model is developed to transmute a unit hydrograph into a probability distribution function (PDF). The objective function is to minimize the sum of the square of the deviation between predicted and actual direct runoff hydrograph of a watershed. The predicted runoff hydrograph is estimated by using a PDF. In a unit hydrograph, the depth of rainfall excess must be unity and the ordinates must be positive. Incorporation of a PDF ensures that the depth of rainfall excess for the unit hydrograph is unity, and the ordinates are also positive. Unit hydrograph ordinates are in terms of intensity of rainfall excess on a discharge per unit catchment area basis, the unit area thus representing the unit rainfall excess. The proposed method does not have any constraint. The nonlinear optimization formulation is solved using binary-coded genetic algorithms. The number of variables to be estimated by optimization is the same as the number of probability distribution parameters; gamma and log-normal probability distributions are used. The existing nonlinear programming model for obtaining optimal unit hydrograph has also been solved using genetic algorithms, where the constrained nonlinear optimization problem is converted to an unconstrained problem using penalty parameter approach. The results obtained are compared with those obtained by the earlier LP model and are fairly similar.
Fatal Penetrating Injuries Sustained by High-pressure Water Jet Unit.
Radojevic, Nemanja; Radnic, Bojana; Curovic, Ivana
2015-11-01
The high-pressure water jet unit is a generator of frequent burst of water jets. The water jet reaches very high speeds and is able to cause wounds similar to those of high-velocity projectiles. In the presented case, unusual fatal injuries sustained by water jet are presented. Operating with the unit, an untrained worker accidentally activated a high-pressure water jet unit, and the extremely high pressure of water liberated the jet unit from his hand and whirled it around him. A jet stream of water ran across his body and caused fatal penetrating injuries in the femoral region. The edges of the wound were mainly sharp with contusion rings on the skin beyond the edges. Exploring the inside of the canals during the autopsy, the left femoral artery and vein were found to be completely transected. The resemblance to a firearm entry wound and the severity of the internal injury make it a noteworthy entity. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.
The estimated lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus in the United States.
Chesson, Harrell W; Dunne, Eileen F; Hariri, Susan; Markowitz, Lauri E
2014-11-01
Estimates of the lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus (HPV) can help to quantify HPV incidence, illustrate how common HPV infection is, and highlight the importance of HPV vaccination. We developed a simple model, based primarily on the distribution of lifetime numbers of sex partners across the population and the per-partnership probability of acquiring HPV, to estimate the lifetime probability of acquiring HPV in the United States in the time frame before HPV vaccine availability. We estimated the average lifetime probability of acquiring HPV among those with at least 1 opposite sex partner to be 84.6% (range, 53.6%-95.0%) for women and 91.3% (range, 69.5%-97.7%) for men. Under base case assumptions, more than 80% of women and men acquire HPV by age 45 years. Our results are consistent with estimates in the existing literature suggesting a high lifetime probability of HPV acquisition and are supported by cohort studies showing high cumulative HPV incidence over a relatively short period, such as 3 to 5 years.
Austin, Samuel H.; Nelms, David L.
2017-01-01
Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5-11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best-performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making.
Space Object Collision Probability via Monte Carlo on the Graphics Processing Unit
Vittaldev, Vivek; Russell, Ryan P.
2017-09-01
Fast and accurate collision probability computations are essential for protecting space assets. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is the most accurate but computationally intensive method. A Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) is used to parallelize the computation and reduce the overall runtime. Using MC techniques to compute the collision probability is common in literature as the benchmark. An optimized implementation on the GPU, however, is a challenging problem and is the main focus of the current work. The MC simulation takes samples from the uncertainty distributions of the Resident Space Objects (RSOs) at any time during a time window of interest and outputs the separations at closest approach. Therefore, any uncertainty propagation method may be used and the collision probability is automatically computed as a function of RSO collision radii. Integration using a fixed time step and a quartic interpolation after every Runge Kutta step ensures that no close approaches are missed. Two orders of magnitude speedups over a serial CPU implementation are shown, and speedups improve moderately with higher fidelity dynamics. The tool makes the MC approach tractable on a single workstation, and can be used as a final product, or for verifying surrogate and analytical collision probability methods.
Burton, Robin R.
2010-04-01
Three-dimensional (3D) Light Detection And Ranging (LIDAR) systems designed for foliage penetration can produce good bare-earth products in medium to medium-heavy obscuration environments, but product creation becomes increasingly more difficult as the obscuration level increases. A prior knowledge of the obscuration environment over large areas is hard to obtain. The competing factors of area coverage rate and product quality are difficult to balance. Ground-based estimates of obscuration levels are labor intensive and only capture a small portion of the area of interest. Estimates of obscuration levels derived from airborne data require that the area of interest has been collected previously. Recently, there has been a focus on lacunarity (scale dependent measure of translational invariance) to quantify the gap structure of canopies. While this approach is useful, it needs to be evaluated relative to the size of the instantaneous field-of-view (IFOV) of the system under consideration. In this paper, the author reports on initial results to generate not just average obscuration values from overhead canopy photographs, but to generate obscuration probability density functions (PDFs) for both gimbaled linear-mode and geiger-mode airborne LIDAR. In general, gimbaled linear-mode (LM) LIDAR collects data with higher signal-to-noise (SNR), but is limited to smaller areas and cannot collect at higher altitudes. Conversely, geiger-mode (GM) LIDAR has a much lower SNR, but is capable of higher area rates and collecting data at higher altitudes. To date, geiger-mode LIDAR obscurant penetration theory has relied on a single obscuration value, but recent work has extended it to use PDFs1. Whether or not the inclusion of PDFs significantly changes predicted results and more closely matches actual results awaits the generation of PDFs over specific ground truth targets and comparison to actual collections of those ground truth targets. Ideally, examination of individual PDFs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Meredith L McClure
Full Text Available Wild pigs (Sus scrofa, also known as wild swine, feral pigs, or feral hogs, are one of the most widespread and successful invasive species around the world. Wild pigs have been linked to extensive and costly agricultural damage and present a serious threat to plant and animal communities due to their rooting behavior and omnivorous diet. We modeled the current distribution of wild pigs in the United States to better understand the physiological and ecological factors that may determine their invasive potential and to guide future study and eradication efforts. Using national-scale wild pig occurrence data reported between 1982 and 2012 by wildlife management professionals, we estimated the probability of wild pig occurrence across the United States using a logistic discrimination function and environmental covariates hypothesized to influence the distribution of the species. Our results suggest the distribution of wild pigs in the U.S. was most strongly limited by cold temperatures and availability of water, and that they were most likely to occur where potential home ranges had higher habitat heterogeneity, providing access to multiple key resources including water, forage, and cover. High probability of occurrence was also associated with frequent high temperatures, up to a high threshold. However, this pattern is driven by pigs' historic distribution in warm climates of the southern U.S. Further study of pigs' ability to persist in cold northern climates is needed to better understand whether low temperatures actually limit their distribution. Our model highlights areas at risk of invasion as those with habitat conditions similar to those found in pigs' current range that are also near current populations. This study provides a macro-scale approach to generalist species distribution modeling that is applicable to other generalist and invasive species.
Sub-Hourly Impacts of High Solar Penetrations in the Western United States: Preprint
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lew, D.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.; Hummon, M.; Hodge, B. M.; Heaney, M.; King, J.
2012-09-01
This paper presents results of analysis on the sub-hourly impacts of high solar penetrations from the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Phase 2. Extreme event analysis showed that most large ramps were due to sunrise and sunset events, which have a significant predictability component. Variability in general was much higher in the high-solar versus high-wind scenario. Reserve methodologies that had already been developed for wind were therefore modified to take into account the predictability component of solar variability.
On the probability distribution of daily streamflow in the United States
Blum, Annalise G.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.
2017-01-01
Daily streamflows are often represented by flow duration curves (FDCs), which illustrate the frequency with which flows are equaled or exceeded. FDCs have had broad applications across both operational and research hydrology for decades; however, modeling FDCs has proven elusive. Daily streamflow is a complex time series with flow values ranging over many orders of magnitude. The identification of a probability distribution that can approximate daily streamflow would improve understanding of the behavior of daily flows and the ability to estimate FDCs at ungaged river locations. Comparisons of modeled and empirical FDCs at nearly 400 unregulated, perennial streams illustrate that the four-parameter kappa distribution provides a very good representation of daily streamflow across the majority of physiographic regions in the conterminous United States (US). Further, for some regions of the US, the three-parameter generalized Pareto and lognormal distributions also provide a good approximation to FDCs. Similar results are found for the period of record FDCs, representing the long-term hydrologic regime at a site, and median annual FDCs, representing the behavior of flows in a typical year.
Ozyurt, Ozcan
2014-01-01
In this study, the probability unit ability levels of the eleventh grade Turkish students were classified through cluster analysis. The study was carried out in a high school located in Trabzon, Turkey during the fall semester of the 2011-2012 academic years. A total of 84 eleventh grade students participated. Students were taught about…
U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set is a national map of predicted probability of nitrate contamination of shallow ground waters based on a logistic regression (LR) model. The LR model...
Meskin, Matin
The rate of the integration of distributed generation (DG) units to the distribution level to meet the growth in demand increases as a reasonable replacement for costly network expansion. This integration brings many advantages to the consumers and power grids, as well as giving rise to more challenges in relation to protection and control. Recent research has brought to light the negative effects of DG units on short circuit currents and overcurrent (OC) protection systems in distribution networks. Change in the direction of fault current flow, increment or decrement of fault current magnitude, blindness of protection, feeder sympathy trip, nuisance trip of interrupting devices, and the disruption of coordination between protective devices are some potential impacts of DG unit integration. Among other types of DG units, the integration of renewable energy resources into the electric grid has seen a vast improvement in recent years. In particular, the interconnection of photovoltaic (PV) sources to the medium voltage (MV) distribution networks has experienced a rapid increase in the last decade. In this work, the effect of PV source on conventional OC relays in MV distribution networks is shown. It is indicated that the PV output fluctuation, due to changes in solar radiation, causes the magnitude and direction of the current to change haphazardly. These variations may result in the poor operation of OC relays as the main protective devices in the MV distribution networks. In other words, due to the bi-directional power flow characteristic and the fluctuation of current magnitude occurring in the presence of PV sources, a specific setting of OC relays is difficult to realize. Therefore, OC relays may operate in normal conditions. To improve the OC relay operation, a voltage-dependent-overcurrent protection is proposed. Although, this new method prevents the OC relay from maloperation, its ability to detect earth faults and high impedance faults is poor. Thus, a
Saito, Naoko; Hito, Rania; Burke, Peter A; Sakai, Osamu
2014-01-01
Penetrating neck injuries are commonly related to stab wounds and gunshot wounds in the United States. The injuries are classified by penetration site in terms of the three anatomical zones of the neck. Based on this zonal classification system, penetrating injuries to the head and neck have traditionally been evaluated by conventional angiography and/or surgical exploration. In recent years, multidetector-row computed tomography (CT) angiography has significantly improved detectability of vascular injuries and extravascular injuries in the setting of penetrating injuries. CT angiography is a fast and minimally invasive imaging modality to evaluate penetrating injuries of the head and neck for stable patients. The spectrum of penetrating neck injuries includes vascular injury (extravasation, pseudoaneurysm, dissection, occlusion, and arteriovenous fistula), aerodigestive injury (esophageal and tracheal injuries), salivary gland injury, neurologic injury (spinal canal and cerebral injuries), and osseous injury, all of which can be evaluated using CT angiography. Familiarity with the complications and imaging characteristics of penetrating injuries of the head and neck is essential for accurate diagnosis and optimal treatment.
Sinnollareddy, Mahipal G; Roberts, Michael S; Lipman, Jeffrey; Lassig-Smith, Melissa; Starr, Therese; Robertson, Thomas; Peake, Sandra L; Roberts, Jason A
2016-02-01
The objective of the study was to describe the subcutaneous interstitial fluid (ISF) pharmacokinetics of fluconazole in critically ill patients with sepsis. This prospective observational study was conducted at two tertiary intensive care units in Australia. Serial fluconazole concentrations were measured over 24 h in plasma and subcutaneous ISF using microdialysis. The concentrations in plasma and microdialysate were measured using a validated high-performance liquid chromatography system with electrospray mass spectrometer detector method. Noncompartmental pharmacokinetic analysis was performed. Twelve critically ill patients with sepsis were enrolled. The mean in vivo fluconazole recovery rates ± standard deviation (SD) for microdialysis were 51.4% ± 16.1% with a mean (±SD) fluconazole ISF penetration ratio of 0.52 ± 0.30 (coefficient of variation, 58%). The median free plasma area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h (AUC0-24) was significantly higher than the median ISF AUC0-24 (340.4 versus 141.1 mg · h/liter; P = 0.004). There was no statistical difference in median fluconazole ISF penetration between patients receiving and not receiving vasopressors (median, 0.28 versus 0.78; P = 0.106). Both minimum and the maximum concentrations of drug in serum (Cmax and Cmin) showed a significant correlation with the fluconazole plasma exposure (Cmax, R(2) = 0.86, P fluconazole was distributed variably, but incompletely, from plasma into subcutaneous interstitial fluid in this cohort of critically ill patients with sepsis. Given the variability of fluconazole interstitial fluid exposures and lack of clinically identifiable factors by which to recognize patients with reduced distribution/exposure, we suggest higher than standard doses to ensure that drug exposure is adequate at the site of infection.
Cannon, S.H.; Gartner, J.E.; Rupert, M.G.; Michael, J.A.; Rea, A.H.; Parrett, C.
2010-01-01
Empirical models to estimate the probability of occurrence and volume of postwildfire debris flows can be quickly implemented in a geographic information system (GIS) to generate debris-flow hazard maps either before or immediately following wildfires. Models that can be used to calculate the probability of debris-flow production from individual drainage basins in response to a given storm were developed using logistic regression analyses of a database from 388 basins located in 15 burned areas located throughout the U.S. Intermountain West. The models describe debris-flow probability as a function of readily obtained measures of areal burned extent, soil properties, basin morphology, and rainfall from short-duration and low-recurrence-interval convective rainstorms. A model for estimating the volume of material that may issue from a basin mouth in response to a given storm was developed using multiple linear regression analysis of a database from 56 basins burned by eight fires. This model describes debris-flow volume as a function of the basin gradient, aerial burned extent, and storm rainfall. Applications of a probability model and the volume model for hazard assessments are illustrated using information from the 2003 Hot Creek fire in central Idaho. The predictive strength of the approach in this setting is evaluated using information on the response of this fire to a localized thunderstorm in August 2003. The mapping approach presented here identifies those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and thus provides information necessary to prioritize areas for postfire erosion mitigation, warnings, and prefire management efforts throughout the Intermountain West.
Recent trends in the probability of high out-of-pocket medical expenses in the United States
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Katherine E Baird
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Objective: This article measures the probability that out-of-pocket expenses in the United States exceed a threshold share of income. It calculates this probability separately by individuals’ health condition, income, and elderly status and estimates changes occurring in these probabilities between 2010 and 2013. Data and Method: This article uses nationally representative household survey data on 344,000 individuals. Logistic regressions estimate the probabilities that out-of-pocket expenses exceed 5% and alternatively 10% of income in the two study years. These probabilities are calculated for individuals based on their income, health status, and elderly status. Results: Despite favorable changes in both health policy and the economy, large numbers of Americans continue to be exposed to high out-of-pocket expenditures. For instance, the results indicate that in 2013 over a quarter of nonelderly low-income citizens in poor health spent 10% or more of their income on out-of-pocket expenses, and over 40% of this group spent more than 5%. Moreover, for Americans as a whole, the probability of spending in excess of 5% of income on out-of-pocket costs increased by 1.4 percentage points between 2010 and 2013, with the largest increases occurring among low-income Americans; the probability of Americans spending more than 10% of income grew from 9.3% to 9.6%, with the largest increases also occurring among the poor. Conclusion: The magnitude of out-of-pocket’s financial burden and the most recent upward trends in it underscore a need to develop good measures of the degree to which health care policy exposes individuals to financial risk, and to closely monitor the Affordable Care Act’s success in reducing Americans’ exposure to large medical bills.
Recent trends in the probability of high out-of-pocket medical expenses in the United States
Baird, Katherine E
2016-01-01
Objective: This article measures the probability that out-of-pocket expenses in the United States exceed a threshold share of income. It calculates this probability separately by individuals’ health condition, income, and elderly status and estimates changes occurring in these probabilities between 2010 and 2013. Data and Method: This article uses nationally representative household survey data on 344,000 individuals. Logistic regressions estimate the probabilities that out-of-pocket expenses exceed 5% and alternatively 10% of income in the two study years. These probabilities are calculated for individuals based on their income, health status, and elderly status. Results: Despite favorable changes in both health policy and the economy, large numbers of Americans continue to be exposed to high out-of-pocket expenditures. For instance, the results indicate that in 2013 over a quarter of nonelderly low-income citizens in poor health spent 10% or more of their income on out-of-pocket expenses, and over 40% of this group spent more than 5%. Moreover, for Americans as a whole, the probability of spending in excess of 5% of income on out-of-pocket costs increased by 1.4 percentage points between 2010 and 2013, with the largest increases occurring among low-income Americans; the probability of Americans spending more than 10% of income grew from 9.3% to 9.6%, with the largest increases also occurring among the poor. Conclusion: The magnitude of out-of-pocket’s financial burden and the most recent upward trends in it underscore a need to develop good measures of the degree to which health care policy exposes individuals to financial risk, and to closely monitor the Affordable Care Act’s success in reducing Americans’ exposure to large medical bills. PMID:27651901
Matthew Thompson; David Calkin; Joe H. Scott; Michael. Hand
2017-01-01
Wildfire risk assessment is increasingly being adopted to support federal wildfire management decisions in the United States. Existing decision support systems, specifically the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), provide a rich set of probabilistic and riskâbased information to support the management of active wildfire incidents. WFDSS offers a wide range...
Estimating the probability of arsenic occurrence in domestic wells in the United States
Ayotte, J.; Medalie, L.; Qi, S.; Backer, L. F.; Nolan, B. T.
2016-12-01
Approximately 43 million people (about 14 percent of the U.S. population) rely on privately owned domestic wells as their source of drinking water. Unlike public water systems, which are regulated by the Safe Drinking Water Act, there is no comprehensive national program to ensure that the water from domestic wells is routinely tested and that is it safe to drink. A study published in 2009 from the National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the U.S. Geological Survey assessed water-quality conditions from 2,100 domestic wells within 48 states and reported that more than one in five (23 percent) of the sampled wells contained one or more contaminants at a concentration greater than a human-health benchmark. In addition, there are many activities such as resource extraction, climate change-induced drought, and changes in land use patterns that could potentially affect the quality of the ground water source for domestic wells. The Health Studies Branch (HSB) of the National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, created a Clean Water for Health Program to help address domestic well concerns. The goals of this program are to identify emerging public health issues associated with using domestic wells for drinking water and develop plans to address these issues. As part of this effort, HSB in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey has created probability models to estimate the probability of arsenic occurring at various concentrations in domestic wells in the U.S. We will present preliminary results of the project, including estimates of the population supplied by domestic wells that is likely to have arsenic greater than 10 micrograms per liter. Nationwide, we estimate this to be just over 2 million people. Logistic regression model results showing probabilities of arsenic greater than the Maximum Contaminant Level for public supply wells of 10 micrograms per liter in domestic wells in the U.S., based on data for arsenic
Nemeth, Noel
2013-01-01
Models that predict the failure probability of monolithic glass and ceramic components under multiaxial loading have been developed by authors such as Batdorf, Evans, and Matsuo. These "unit-sphere" failure models assume that the strength-controlling flaws are randomly oriented, noninteracting planar microcracks of specified geometry but of variable size. This report develops a formulation to describe the probability density distribution of the orientation of critical strength-controlling flaws that results from an applied load. This distribution is a function of the multiaxial stress state, the shear sensitivity of the flaws, the Weibull modulus, and the strength anisotropy. Examples are provided showing the predicted response on the unit sphere for various stress states for isotropic and transversely isotropic (anisotropic) materials--including the most probable orientation of critical flaws for offset uniaxial loads with strength anisotropy. The author anticipates that this information could be used to determine anisotropic stiffness degradation or anisotropic damage evolution for individual brittle (or quasi-brittle) composite material constituents within finite element or micromechanics-based software
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rosie D Salazar
Full Text Available The common toad (Bufo bufo is of increasing conservation concern in the United Kingdom (UK due to dramatic population declines occurring in the past century. Many of these population declines coincided with reductions in both terrestrial and aquatic habitat availability and quality and have been primarily attributed to the effect of agricultural land conversion (of natural and semi-natural habitats to arable and pasture fields and pond drainage. However, there is little evidence available to link habitat availability with common toad population declines, especially when examined at a broad landscape scale. Assessing such patterns of population declines at the landscape scale, for instance, require an understanding of how this species uses terrestrial habitat.We intensively studied the terrestrial resource selection of a large population of common toads in Oxfordshire, England, UK. Adult common toads were fitted with passive integrated transponder (PIT tags to allow detection in the terrestrial environment using a portable PIT antenna once toads left the pond and before going into hibernation (April/May-October 2012 and 2013. We developed a population-level resource selection function (RSF to assess the relative probability of toad occurrence in the terrestrial environment by collecting location data for 90 recaptured toads.The predicted relative probability of toad occurrence for this population was greatest in wooded habitat near to water bodies; relative probability of occurrence declined dramatically > 50 m from these habitats. Toads also tended to select habitat near to their breeding pond and toad occurrence was negatively related to urban environments.
Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy
2017-05-01
A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cai, H.; Wang, M.; Elgowainy, A.; Han, J. (Energy Systems)
2012-07-06
Greenhouse gas (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, hereinafter GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CO, NO{sub x}, VOC, PM{sub 10}, PM{sub 2.5} and SO{sub x}, hereinafter CAP) emission factors for various types of power plants burning various fuels with different technologies are important upstream parameters for estimating life-cycle emissions associated with alternative vehicle/fuel systems in the transportation sector, especially electric vehicles. The emission factors are typically expressed in grams of GHG or CAP per kWh of electricity generated by a specific power generation technology. This document describes our approach for updating and expanding GHG and CAP emission factors in the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model developed at Argonne National Laboratory (see Wang 1999 and the GREET website at http://greet.es.anl.gov/main) for various power generation technologies. These GHG and CAP emissions are used to estimate the impact of electricity use by stationary and transportation applications on their fuel-cycle emissions. The electricity generation mixes and the fuel shares attributable to various combustion technologies at the national, regional and state levels are also updated in this document. The energy conversion efficiencies of electric generating units (EGUs) by fuel type and combustion technology are calculated on the basis of the lower heating values of each fuel, to be consistent with the basis used in GREET for transportation fuels. On the basis of the updated GHG and CAP emission factors and energy efficiencies of EGUs, the probability distribution functions (PDFs), which are functions that describe the relative likelihood for the emission factors and energy efficiencies as random variables to take on a given value by the integral of their own probability distributions, are updated using best-fit statistical curves to characterize the uncertainties associated with GHG and CAP emissions in life
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cai, H.; Wang, M.; Elgowainy, A.; Han, J. (Energy Systems)
2012-07-06
Greenhouse gas (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, hereinafter GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CO, NO{sub x}, VOC, PM{sub 10}, PM{sub 2.5} and SO{sub x}, hereinafter CAP) emission factors for various types of power plants burning various fuels with different technologies are important upstream parameters for estimating life-cycle emissions associated with alternative vehicle/fuel systems in the transportation sector, especially electric vehicles. The emission factors are typically expressed in grams of GHG or CAP per kWh of electricity generated by a specific power generation technology. This document describes our approach for updating and expanding GHG and CAP emission factors in the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model developed at Argonne National Laboratory (see Wang 1999 and the GREET website at http://greet.es.anl.gov/main) for various power generation technologies. These GHG and CAP emissions are used to estimate the impact of electricity use by stationary and transportation applications on their fuel-cycle emissions. The electricity generation mixes and the fuel shares attributable to various combustion technologies at the national, regional and state levels are also updated in this document. The energy conversion efficiencies of electric generating units (EGUs) by fuel type and combustion technology are calculated on the basis of the lower heating values of each fuel, to be consistent with the basis used in GREET for transportation fuels. On the basis of the updated GHG and CAP emission factors and energy efficiencies of EGUs, the probability distribution functions (PDFs), which are functions that describe the relative likelihood for the emission factors and energy efficiencies as random variables to take on a given value by the integral of their own probability distributions, are updated using best-fit statistical curves to characterize the uncertainties associated with GHG and CAP emissions in life
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Young, C.W. [Applied Research Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
1997-10-01
In 1967, Sandia National Laboratories published empirical equations to predict penetration into natural earth materials and concrete. Since that time there have been several small changes to the basic equations, and several more additions to the overall technique for predicting penetration into soil, rock, concrete, ice, and frozen soil. The most recent update to the equations was published in 1988, and since that time there have been changes in the equations to better match the expanding data base, especially in concrete penetration. This is a standalone report documenting the latest version of the Young/Sandia penetration equations and related analytical techniques to predict penetration into natural earth materials and concrete. 11 refs., 6 tabs.
Laudański, Ludomir M
2013-01-01
„Between Certainty & Uncertainty” is a one-of–a-kind short course on statistics for students, engineers and researchers. It is a fascinating introduction to statistics and probability with notes on historical origins and 80 illustrative numerical examples organized in the five units: · Chapter 1 Descriptive Statistics: Compressing small samples, basic averages - mean and variance, their main properties including God’s proof; linear transformations and z-scored statistics . · Chapter 2 Grouped data: Udny Yule’s concept of qualitative and quantitative variables. Grouping these two kinds of data. Graphical tools. Combinatorial rules and qualitative variables. Designing frequency histogram. Direct and coded evaluation of quantitative data. Significance of percentiles. · Chapter 3 Regression and correlation: Geometrical distance and equivalent distances in two orthogonal directions as a prerequisite to the concept of two regressi...
Gronewold, Andrew D; Wolpert, Robert L
2008-07-01
Most probable number (MPN) and colony-forming-unit (CFU) estimates of fecal coliform bacteria concentration are common measures of water quality in coastal shellfish harvesting and recreational waters. Estimating procedures for MPN and CFU have intrinsic variability and are subject to additional uncertainty arising from minor variations in experimental protocol. It has been observed empirically that the standard multiple-tube fermentation (MTF) decimal dilution analysis MPN procedure is more variable than the membrane filtration CFU procedure, and that MTF-derived MPN estimates are somewhat higher on average than CFU estimates, on split samples from the same water bodies. We construct a probabilistic model that provides a clear theoretical explanation for the variability in, and discrepancy between, MPN and CFU measurements. We then compare our model to water quality samples analyzed using both MPN and CFU procedures, and find that the (often large) observed differences between MPN and CFU values for the same water body are well within the ranges predicted by our probabilistic model. Our results indicate that MPN and CFU intra-sample variability does not stem from human error or laboratory procedure variability, but is instead a simple consequence of the probabilistic basis for calculating the MPN. These results demonstrate how probabilistic models can be used to compare samples from different analytical procedures, and to determine whether transitions from one procedure to another are likely to cause a change in quality-based management decisions.
Sevelius, Jae M.
2017-01-01
Background. Transgender individuals have a gender identity that differs from the sex they were assigned at birth. The population size of transgender individuals in the United States is not well-known, in part because official records, including the US Census, do not include data on gender identity. Population surveys today more often collect transgender-inclusive gender-identity data, and secular trends in culture and the media have created a somewhat more favorable environment for transgender people. Objectives. To estimate the current population size of transgender individuals in the United States and evaluate any trend over time. Search methods. In June and July 2016, we searched PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and Web of Science for national surveys, as well as “gray” literature, through an Internet search. We limited the search to 2006 through 2016. Selection criteria. We selected population-based surveys that used probability sampling and included self-reported transgender-identity data. Data collection and analysis. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool eligible surveys and used meta-regression to address our hypothesis that the transgender population size estimate would increase over time. We used subsample and leave-one-out analysis to assess for bias. Main results. Our meta-regression model, based on 12 surveys covering 2007 to 2015, explained 62.5% of model heterogeneity, with a significant effect for each unit increase in survey year (F = 17.122; df = 1,10; b = 0.026%; P = .002). Extrapolating these results to 2016 suggested a current US population size of 390 adults per 100 000, or almost 1 million adults nationally. This estimate may be more indicative for younger adults, who represented more than 50% of the respondents in our analysis. Authors’ conclusions. Future national surveys are likely to observe higher numbers of transgender people. The large variety in questions used to ask
Herbenick, Debby; Friedman, M. Reuel; Schick, Vanessa; Fu, Tsung-Chieh (Jane); Bostwick, Wendy; Bartelt, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Laboy, Miguel; Pletta, David; Reece, Michael; Sandfort, Theo G. M.
2016-01-01
As bisexual individuals in the United States (U.S.) face significant health disparities, researchers have posited that these differences may be fueled, at least in part, by negative attitudes, prejudice, stigma, and discrimination toward bisexual individuals from heterosexual and gay/lesbian individuals. Previous studies of individual and social attitudes toward bisexual men and women have been conducted almost exclusively with convenience samples, with limited generalizability to the broader U.S. population. Our study provides an assessment of attitudes toward bisexual men and women among a nationally representative probability sample of heterosexual, gay, lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. Data were collected from the 2015 National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior (NSSHB), via an online questionnaire with a probability sample of adults (18 years and over) from throughout the U.S. We included two modified 5-item versions of the Bisexualities: Indiana Attitudes Scale (BIAS), validated sub-scales that were developed to measure attitudes toward bisexual men and women. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, gamma regression, and paired t-tests. Gender, sexual identity, age, race/ethnicity, income, and educational attainment were all significantly associated with participants' attitudes toward bisexual individuals. In terms of responses to individual scale items, participants were most likely to “neither agree nor disagree” with all attitudinal statements. Across sexual identities, self-identified other participants reported the most positive attitudes, while heterosexual male participants reported the least positive attitudes. As in previous research on convenience samples, we found a wide range of demographic characteristics were related with attitudes toward bisexual individuals in our nationally-representative study of heterosexual, gay/lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. In particular, gender emerged as a significant
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tuohy, Aidan [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Smith, Jeff [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Rylander, Matt [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Singhvi, Vikas [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Enbar, Nadav [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Coley, Steven [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Roark, Jeff [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Ela, Erik [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Lannoye, Eamonn [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Pilbrick, Charles Russ [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Rudkevich, Alex [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Hansen, Cliff [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States)
2016-07-11
Increasing levels of distributed and utility scale Solar Photovoltaics (PV) will have an impact on many utility functions, including distribution system operations, bulk system performance, business models and scheduling of generation. In this project, EPRI worked with Southern Company Services and its affiliates and the Tennessee Valley Authority to assist these utilities in their strategic planning efforts for integrating PV, based on modeling, simulation and analysis using a set of innovative tools. Advanced production simulation models were used to investigate operating reserve requirements. To leverage existing work and datasets, this last task was carried out on the California system. Overall, the project resulted in providing useful information to both of the utilities involved and through the final reports and interactions during the project. The results from this project can be used to inform the industry about new and improved methodologies for understanding solar PV penetration, and will influence ongoing and future research. This report summarizes each of the topics investigated over the 2.5-year project period.
Penetration Testing: A Roadmap to Network Security
2009-01-01
Network penetration testing identifies the exploits and vulnerabilities those exist within computer network infrastructure and help to confirm the security measures. The objective of this paper is to explain methodology and methods behind penetration testing and illustrate remedies over it, which will provide substantial value for network security Penetration testing should model real world attacks as closely as possible. An authorized and scheduled penetration testing will probably detected ...
Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability
Melucci, Massimo
2011-01-01
The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...
Probability of Detection Demonstration Transferability
Parker, Bradford H.
2008-01-01
The ongoing Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Propellant Tank Penetrant Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Probability of Detection (POD) Assessment (NESC activity) has surfaced several issues associated with liquid penetrant POD demonstration testing. This presentation lists factors that may influence the transferability of POD demonstration tests. Initial testing will address the liquid penetrant inspection technique. Some of the factors to be considered in this task are crack aspect ratio, the extent of the crack opening, the material and the distance between the inspection surface and the inspector's eye.
Penetration Testing: A Roadmap to Network Security
Naik, Nitin A; Khamitkar, Santosh D; Kalyankar, Namdeo V
2009-01-01
Network penetration testing identifies the exploits and vulnerabilities those exist within computer network infrastructure and help to confirm the security measures. The objective of this paper is to explain methodology and methods behind penetration testing and illustrate remedies over it, which will provide substantial value for network security Penetration testing should model real world attacks as closely as possible. An authorized and scheduled penetration testing will probably detected by IDS (Intrusion Detection System). Network penetration testing is done by either or manual automated tools. Penetration test can gather evidence of vulnerability in the network. Successful testing provides indisputable evidence of the problem as well as starting point for prioritizing remediation. Penetration testing focuses on high severity vulnerabilities and there are no false positive.
Market penetration of biodiesel
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kenneth R. Szulczyk, Bruce A. McCarl
2010-01-01
Full Text Available This research examines in detail the technology and economics of substituting biodiesel for diesel #2. This endeavor examines three areas. First, the benefits of biodiesel are examined, and the technical problems of large-scale implementation. Second, the biodiesel production possibilities are examined for soybean oil, corn oil, tallow, and yellow grease, which are the largest sources of feedstocks for the United States. Examining in detail the production possibilities allows to identity the extent of technological change, production costs, byproducts, and greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. Finally, a U.S. agricultural model, FASOMGHG was used to predict market penetration of biodiesel, given technological progress, variety of technologies and feedstocks, market interactions, energy prices, and carbon dioxide equivalent prices. FASOMGHG has several interesting results. First, diesel fuel prices have an expansionary impact on the biodiesel industry. The higher the diesel fuel prices, the more biodiesel is produced. However, given the most favorable circumstances, the maximum biodiesel market penetration is 9% in 2030 with a wholesale diesel price of $4 per gallon. Second, the two dominant sources of biodiesel are from corn and soybeans. Sources like tallow and yellow grease are more limited, because they are byproducts of other industries. Third, GHG prices have an expansionary impact on the biodiesel prices, because biodiesel is quite GHG efficient. Finally, U.S. government subsidies on biofuels have an expansionary impact on biodiesel production, and increase market penetration at least an additional 3%.
Market penetration of biodiesel
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Szulczyk, Kenneth R. [Department of Economics, Orbita 3, Suleyman Demirel University, Almaty, 050043 (Kazakhstan); McCarl, Bruce A. [Department of Agricultural Economics, 2124 TAMU, Texas A& amp; M University, College Station, Texas, 77843 (United States)
2010-07-01
This research examines in detail the technology and economics of substituting biodiesel for diesel number 2. This endeavor examines three areas. First, the benefits of biodiesel are examined, and the technical problems of large-scale implementation. Second, the biodiesel production possibilities are examined for soybean oil, corn oil, tallow, and yellow grease, which are the largest sources of feedstocks for the United States. Examining in detail the production possibilities allows to identity the extent of technological change, production costs, byproducts, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Finally, a U.S. agricultural model, FASOMGHG was used to predict market penetration of biodiesel, given technological progress, variety of technologies and feedstocks, market interactions, energy prices, and carbon dioxide equivalent prices. FASOMGHG has several interesting results. First, diesel fuel prices have an expansionary impact on the biodiesel industry. The higher the diesel fuel prices, the more biodiesel is produced. However, given the most favorable circumstances, the maximum biodiesel market penetration is 9% in 2030 with a wholesale diesel price of $4 per gallon. Second, the two dominant sources of biodiesel are from corn and soybeans. Sources like tallow and yellow grease are more limited, because they are byproducts of other industries. Third, GHG prices have an expansionary impact on the biodiesel prices, because biodiesel is quite GHG efficient. Finally, U.S. government subsidies on biofuels have an expansionary impact on biodiesel production, and increase market penetration at least an additional 3%.
Gudder, Stanley P
2014-01-01
Quantum probability is a subtle blend of quantum mechanics and classical probability theory. Its important ideas can be traced to the pioneering work of Richard Feynman in his path integral formalism.Only recently have the concept and ideas of quantum probability been presented in a rigorous axiomatic framework, and this book provides a coherent and comprehensive exposition of this approach. It gives a unified treatment of operational statistics, generalized measure theory and the path integral formalism that can only be found in scattered research articles.The first two chapters survey the ne
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg
The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...
Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...
Shiryaev, Albert N
2016-01-01
This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.
Napoli, Anthony M
2014-04-01
Cardiology consensus guidelines recommend use of the Diamond and Forrester (D&F) score to augment the decision to pursue stress testing. However, recent work has reported no association between pretest probability of coronary artery disease (CAD) as measured by D&F and physician discretion in stress test utilization for inpatients. The author hypothesized that D&F pretest probability would predict the likelihood of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and a positive stress test and that there would be limited yield to diagnostic testing of patients categorized as low pretest probability by D&F score who are admitted to a chest pain observation unit (CPU). This was a prospective observational cohort study of consecutively admitted CPU patients in a large-volume academic urban emergency department (ED). Cardiologists rounded on all patients and stress test utilization was driven by their recommendations. Inclusion criteria were as follows: age>18 years, American Heart Association (AHA) low/intermediate risk, nondynamic electrocardiograms (ECGs), and normal initial troponin I. Exclusion criteria were as follows: age older than 75 years with a history of CAD. A D&F score for likelihood of CAD was calculated on each patient independent of patient care. Based on the D&F score, patients were assigned a priori to low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups (90%, respectively). ACS was defined by ischemia on stress test, coronary artery occlusion of ≥70% in at least one vessel, or elevations in troponin I consistent with consensus guidelines. A true-positive stress test was defined by evidence of reversible ischemia and subsequent angiographic evidence of critical stenosis or a discharge diagnosis of ACS. An estimated 3,500 patients would be necessary to have 1% precision around a potential 0.3% event rate in low-pretest-probability patients. Categorical comparisons were made using Pearson chi-square testing. A total of 3,552 patients with index visits were enrolled over a 29
Lexicographic Probability, Conditional Probability, and Nonstandard Probability
2009-11-11
the following conditions: CP1. µ(U |U) = 1 if U ∈ F ′. CP2 . µ(V1 ∪ V2 |U) = µ(V1 |U) + µ(V2 |U) if V1 ∩ V2 = ∅, U ∈ F ′, and V1, V2 ∈ F . CP3. µ(V |U...µ(V |X)× µ(X |U) if V ⊆ X ⊆ U , U,X ∈ F ′, V ∈ F . Note that it follows from CP1 and CP2 that µ(· |U) is a probability measure on (W,F) (and, in... CP2 hold. This is easily seen to determine µ. Moreover, µ vaciously satisfies CP3, since there do not exist distinct sets U and X in F ′ such that U
Huang, Ying Che; Chang, Kuang Yi; Lin, Shih Pin; Chen, Kung; Chan, Kwok Hon; Chang, Polun
2013-08-01
As studies have pointed out, severity scores are imperfect at predicting individual clinical chance of survival. The clinical condition and pathophysiological status of these patients in the Intensive Care Unit might differ from or be more complicated than most predictive models account for. In addition, as the pathophysiological status changes over time, the likelihood of survival day by day will vary. Actually, it would decrease over time and a single prediction value cannot address this truth. Clearly, alternative models and refinements are warranted. In this study, we used discrete-time-event models with the changes of clinical variables, including blood cell counts, to predict daily probability of mortality in individual patients from day 3 to day 28 post Intensive Care Unit admission. Both models we built exhibited good discrimination in the training (overall area under ROC curve: 0.80 and 0.79, respectively) and validation cohorts (overall area under ROC curve: 0.78 and 0.76, respectively) to predict daily ICU mortality. The paper describes the methodology, the development process and the content of the models, and discusses the possibility of them to serve as the foundation of a new bedside advisory or alarm system.
Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability
Melucci, Massimo
2011-01-01
The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of false alarm and the same parameter estimation data. As quantum probability provided more effective detectors than classical probability within other domains that data management, we conjecture that, the system that can implement subspace-based detectors shall be more effective than a system which implements a set-based detectors, the effectiveness being calculated as expected recall estimated over the probability of detection and expected fallout estimated over the probability of false alarm.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo
Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... of insurance companies facing losses due to natural disasters, banks seeking protection against huge losses, failures in expensive and sophisticated systems or loss of valuable information in electronic systems. The main difficulty when dealing with this kind of problems is the unavailability of a closed...
S Varadhan, S R
2001-01-01
This volume presents topics in probability theory covered during a first-year graduate course given at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences. The necessary background material in measure theory is developed, including the standard topics, such as extension theorem, construction of measures, integration, product spaces, Radon-Nikodym theorem, and conditional expectation. In the first part of the book, characteristic functions are introduced, followed by the study of weak convergence of probability distributions. Then both the weak and strong limit theorems for sums of independent rando
Efficient Calculation of Earth Penetrating Projectile Trajectories
2006-09-01
CALCULATION OF EARTH PENETRATING PROJECTILE TRAJECTORIES by Daniel F . Youch September 2006 Thesis Advisor: Joshua Gordis... Daniel F . Youch 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5000 8. PERFORMING...EFFICIENT CALCULATION OF EARTH PENETRATING PROJECTILE TRAJECTORIES Daniel F . Youch Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.S., Temple
Modeling pollutant penetration across building envelopes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Liu, De-Ling; Nazaroff, William W.
2001-04-01
As air infiltrates through unintentional openings in building envelopes, pollutants may interact with adjacent surfaces. Such interactions can alter human exposure to air pollutants of outdoor origin. We present modeling explorations of the proportion of particles and reactive gases (e.g., ozone) that penetrate building envelopes as air enters through cracks and wall cavities. Calculations were performed for idealized rectangular cracks, assuming regular geometry, smooth inner crack surface and steady airflow. Particles of 0.1-1.0 {micro}m diameter are predicted to have the highest penetration efficiency, nearly unity for crack heights of 0.25 mm or larger, assuming a pressure difference of 4 Pa or greater and a flow path length of 3 cm or less. Supermicron and ultrafine particles are significantly removed by means of gravitational settling and Brownian diffusion, respectively. In addition to crack geometry, ozone penetration depends on its reactivity with crack surfaces, as parameterized by the reaction probability. For reaction probabilities less than {approx}10{sup -5}, penetration is complete for cracks heights greater than 1 mm. However, penetration through mm scale cracks is small if the reaction probability is {approx}10{sup -4} or greater. For wall cavities, fiberglass insulation is an efficient particle filter, but particles would penetrate efficiently through uninsulated wall cavities or through insulated cavities with significant airflow bypass. The ozone reaction probability on fiberglass fibers was measured to be 10{sup -7} for fibers previously exposed to high ozone levels and 6 x 10{sup -6} for unexposed fibers. Over this range, ozone penetration through fiberglass insulation would vary from >90% to {approx}10-40%. Thus, under many conditions penetration is high; however, there are realistic circumstances in which building envelopes can provide substantial pollutant removal. Not enough is yet known about the detailed nature of pollutant penetration
Case Report: Penetrating Cardiac Injury
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adem Grbolar
2013-10-01
Full Text Available Summary: Penetrating cardiac injurys caused by gunshots and penetrating tools have high mortality rates. The way of injury, how the cardiac area is effected and the presence of cardiac tamponadecauses mortality in different rates. However the better treatment quality of hospitals, increasingoperative techniques, and internel care unit quality has not been change during the years. Searching the literature, we want to present a 42 years old male patient whowas injured by knife and had a 1 cm skin wound on chest with cardiac tamponade. After sternotomy a 7 cm laseration was observed in heart. Cardioraphy was performed.
Estimating Consequences of MMOD Penetrations on ISS
Evans, H.; Hyde, James; Christiansen, E.; Lear, D.
2017-01-01
The threat from micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts on space vehicles is often quantified in terms of the probability of no penetration (PNP). However, for large spacecraft, especially those with multiple compartments, a penetration may have a number of possible outcomes. The extent of the damage (diameter of hole, crack length or penetration depth), the location of the damage relative to critical equipment or crew, crew response, and even the time of day of the penetration are among the many factors that can affect the outcome. For the International Space Station (ISS), a Monte-Carlo style software code called Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability (MSCSurv) is used to predict the probability of several outcomes of an MMOD penetration-broadly classified as loss of crew (LOC), crew evacuation (Evac), loss of escape vehicle (LEV), and nominal end of mission (NEOM). By generating large numbers of MMOD impacts (typically in the billions) and tracking the consequences, MSCSurv allows for the inclusion of a large number of parameters and models as well as enabling the consideration of uncertainties in the models and parameters. MSCSurv builds upon the results from NASA's Bumper software (which provides the probability of penetration and critical input data to MSCSurv) to allow analysts to estimate the probability of LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM. This paper briefly describes the overall methodology used by NASA to quantify LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM with particular emphasis on describing in broad terms how MSCSurv works and its capabilities and most significant models.
Simulated meteoroid penetration of reusable surface insulation
Lehman, J. K.; Christensen, H. E.
1973-01-01
Meteoroid impact simulation test results on insulation tiles were used to determine penetration resistance of reusable surface insulation attached to simulated shuttle structures. The probability of no meteoroid damage to a typical shuttle orbiter was determined. Specimens were plasma jet tested to determine effects of various size meteoroid cavities on their thermal performance. None of the tiles failed catastrophically, but large, egg-shaped craters did result from meteoroid penetration. The metallic side of a specimen that was completely penetrated showed a petalled hole typical for thin gage shielded structures.
Simulation of laser penetration efficiency
Semak, V. V.; Miller, T. F.
2013-09-01
The results of numerical simulation of laser beam interaction with a hypothetical metallic material with properties similar to a steel alloy are reported. The numerical simulation was performed using a physical model that includes detailed consideration of surface evaporation, evaporative cooling of the surface and evaporation recoil induced melt ejection. The laser beam ‘penetration’ is considered in terms of melting through the sample or drilling through the sample due to both evaporation and recoil ejection of material. As a demonstration of the predictive capabilities of the model, the average velocity of penetration through a material with steel-like properties is numerically predicted for various laser interaction parameters such as, laser beam radius, laser pulse duration (including CW regime), laser pulse energy and pulse repetition. In particular, the average penetration velocities through a sample due to melting are compared for pulsed and CW lasers of the same power. For the sake of another demonstration of penetration simulation, the temporal dynamics of the position of melt front relative to the sample surface irradiated by a laser beam was computed for different laser pulse repetition rates and constant average laser power. An illustration of the penetration efficiency (W parameter) defined as the amount of energy per unit volume delivered into a target in order to achieve either melting of drilling through a target wall is shown in a wide range of laser pulse parameters covering regimes corresponding to domination of melting through and drilling through.
New Metrics for Evaluating Technical Benefits and Risks of DGs Increasing Penetration
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Akbari, Mohammad Amin; Aghaei, Jamshid; Barani, Mostafa
2017-01-01
and risks should be qualified and quantified. This paper introduces several probabilistic indices to evaluate the potential operational effects of increasing penetration of renewable DG units such as wind power and photovoltaic on rural distribution network with the aid of evaluating technical benefits...... and risks trade-offs. A probabilistic generation-load model is suggested to calculate these indices which combine a large number of possible operating conditions of renewable DG units with their probabilities. Temporal and annual indices of voltage profile and line flow related attributes such as Interest...
Penetration Testing of the OPRA Regolith Penetrator
El Shafie, A.; Kegege, O.; Barrows, S.; Roe, L.; Ulrich, R.
2008-03-01
Our work focuses on the mechanical design and penetration forces for the Optical Probe for Regolith Analysis. This is a spike-shaped probe delivered to a planet, asteroid, or cometary body by a lander to provide IR spectroscopy of the subsurface.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Komaki, Ritsuko, E-mail: rkomaki@mdanderson.org [University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Khalid, Najma [American College of Radiology, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Langer, Corey J. [Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Kong, Feng-Ming [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Owen, Jean B.; Crozier, Cheryl L. [American College of Radiology, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Wilson, J. Frank [Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin (United States); Wei, Xiong [University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Movsas, Benjamin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Henry Ford Hospital, Detroit, Michigan (United States)
2013-03-15
Purpose: To document the penetration of clinical trial results, practice guidelines, and appropriateness criteria into national practice, we compared the use of components of staging and treatment for lung cancer among patients treated in 2006-2007 with those used in patients treated in 1998-1999. Methods and Materials: Patient, staging work-up, and treatment characteristics were extracted from the process survey database of the Quality Research in Radiation Oncology (QRRO), consisting of records of 340 patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC) at 44 institutions and of 144 patients with limited-stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) at 39 institutions. Data were compared for patients treated in 2006-2007 versus those for patients treated in 1998-1999. Results: Use of all recommended procedures for staging and treatment was more common in 2006-2007. Specifically, disease was staged with brain imaging (magnetic resonance imaging or computed tomography) and whole-body imaging (positron emission tomography or bone scanning) in 66% of patients with LA-NSCLC in 2006-2007 (vs 42% in 1998-1999, P=.0001) and in 84% of patients with LS-SCLC in 2006-2007 (vs 58.3% in 1998-1999, P=.0011). Concurrent chemoradiation was used for 77% of LA-NSCLC patients (vs 45% in 1998-1999, P<.0001) and for 90% of LS-SCLC patients (vs 62.5% in 1998-1999, P<.0001). Use of the recommended radiation dose (59-74 Gy for NSCLC and 60-70 Gy as once-daily therapy for SCLC) did not change appreciably, being 88% for NSCLC in both periods and 51% (2006-2007) versus 43% (1998-1999) for SCLC. Twice-daily radiation for SCLC was used for 21% of patients in 2006-2007 versus 8% in 1998-1999. Finally, 49% of patients with LS-SCLC received prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) in 2006-2007 (vs 21% in 1998-1999). Conclusions: Although adherence to all quality indicators improved over time, brain imaging and recommended radiation doses for stage III NSCLC were used in <90% of cases. Use
Follicular penetration and targeting.
Lademann, Jürgen; Otberg, Nina; Jacobi, Ute; Hoffman, Robert M; Blume-Peytavi, Ulrike
2005-12-01
In the past, intercellular penetration was assumed to be the most important penetration pathway of topically applied substances. First hints that follicular penetration needs to be taken into consideration were confirmed by recent investigations, presented during the workshop "Follicular Penetration and Targeting" at the 4th Intercontinental Meeting of Hair Research Societies", in Berlin 2004. Hair follicles represent an efficient reservoir for the penetration of topically applied substances with subsequent targeting of distinct cell populations, e.g., nestin-expressing follicular bulge cells. The volume of this reservoir can be determined by differential stripping technology. The follicular penetration processes are significantly influenced by the state of the follicular infundibulum; recent experimental investigations could demonstrate that it is essential to distinguish between open and closed hair follicles. Topically applied substances can only penetrate into open hair follicle. Knowledge of follicular penetration is of high clinical relevance for functional targeting of distinct follicular regions. Human hair follicles show a hair-cycle-dependent variation of the dense neuronal and vascular network. Moreover, during hair follicle cycling with initiation of anagen, newly formed vessels occur. Thus, the potential of nestin-expressing hair follicle stem cells to form neurons and blood vessels was investigated.
2016-01-01
Background Quality benchmarks are increasingly being used to compare the delivery of healthcare, and may affect reimbursement in the future. The University Health Consortium (UHC) expected probability of mortality (EPM) is one such quality benchmark. Although the UHC EPM is used to compare quality across UHC members, it has not been prospectively validated in the critically ill. We aimed to define the performance characteristics of the UHC EPM in the critically ill and compare its ability to ...
Metasploit penetration testing cookbook
Agarwal, Monika
2013-01-01
This book follows a Cookbook style with recipes explaining the steps for penetration testing with WLAN, VOIP, and even cloud computing. There is plenty of code and commands used to make your learning curve easy and quick.This book targets both professional penetration testers as well as new users of Metasploit, who wish to gain expertise over the framework and learn an additional skill of penetration testing, not limited to a particular OS. The book requires basic knowledge of scanning, exploitation, and the Ruby language.
Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming
Saad, Emad
2013-01-01
Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...
Berdeaux, Douglas
2014-01-01
If you are an expert Perl programmer interested in penetration testing or information security, this guide is designed for you. However, it will also be helpful for you even if you have little or no Linux shell experience.
Scaling Qualitative Probability
Burgin, Mark
2017-01-01
There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sampooran Singh
1953-01-01
Full Text Available When a “Shaped-Charge” projectile is spin-stabilized during its flight, its penetration is greatly reduced, hence such a projectile is fin-stabilized and consequently the range is less and accuracy is poor. Attempts are being made to combine the penetrating power of a bazooka, and range and accuracy of rifled weapon. Just as the introduction of fire-arms brought about the extinction of the armour knights because a bullet could easily penetrate the kind of armour that the knights could put on; similarly “Shaped-Charge” projectiles having the range and accuracy of a rifled weapon will seriously affect the tactical use of amour in the battle-field.
Session: Hard Rock Penetration
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tennyson, George P. Jr.; Dunn, James C.; Drumheller, Douglas S.; Glowka, David A.; Lysne, Peter
1992-01-01
This session at the Geothermal Energy Program Review X: Geothermal Energy and the Utility Market consisted of five presentations: ''Hard Rock Penetration - Summary'' by George P. Tennyson, Jr.; ''Overview - Hard Rock Penetration'' by James C. Dunn; ''An Overview of Acoustic Telemetry'' by Douglas S. Drumheller; ''Lost Circulation Technology Development Status'' by David A. Glowka; ''Downhole Memory-Logging Tools'' by Peter Lysne.
Daniels, David J
2004-01-01
Ground-penetrating radar has come to public attention in recent criminal investigations, but has actually been a developing and maturing remote sensing field for some time. In the light of recent expansion of the technique to a wide range of applications, the need for an up-to-date reference has become pressing. This fully revised and expanded edition of the best-selling Surface-Penetrating Radar (IEE, 1996) presents, for the non-specialist user or engineer, all the key elements of this technique, which span several disciplines including electromagnetics, geophysics and signal processing. The
Vacuum Radiation Pressure Fluctuations and Barrier Penetration
Huang, Haiyan
2016-01-01
We apply recent results on the probability distribution for quantum stress tensor fluctuations to the problem of barrier penetration by quantum particles. The probability for large stress tensor fluctuations decreases relatively slowly with increasing magnitude of the fluctuation, especially when the quantum stress tensor operator has been averaged over a finite time interval. This can lead to large vacuum radiation pressure fluctuations on charged or polarizable particles, which can in turn push the particle over a potential barrier. The rate for this effect depends sensitively upon the details of the time averaging of the stress tensor operator, which might be determined by factors such as the shape of the potential. We make some estimates for the rate of barrier penetration by this mechanism and argue that in some cases this rate can exceed the rate for quantum tunneling through the barrier. The possibility of observation of this effect is discussed.
Blug, A.; Abt, F.; Nicolosi, L.; Heider, A.; Weber, R.; Carl, D.; Höfler, H.; Tetzlaff, R.
2012-07-01
Although laser-welding processes are frequently used in industrial production the quality control of these processes is not satisfactory yet. Until recently, the "full penetration hole" was presumed as an image feature which appears when the keyhole opens at the bottom of the work piece. Therefore it was used as an indicator for full penetration only. We used a novel camera based on "cellular neural networks" which enables measurements at frame rates up to 14 kHz. The results show that the occurrence of the full penetration hole can be described as a stochastic process. The probability to observe it increases near the full penetration state. In overlap joints, a very similar image feature appears when the penetration depth reaches the gap between the sheets. This stochastic process is exploited by a closed-loop system which controls penetration depth near the bottom of the work piece ("full penetration") or near the gap in overlap joints ("partial penetration"). It guides the welding process at the minimum laser power necessary for the required penetration depth. As a result, defects like spatters are reduced considerably and the penetration depth becomes independent of process drifts such as feeding rate or pollution on protection glasses.
Briggs, William M.
2012-01-01
The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tambet eTeesalu
2013-08-01
Full Text Available Tumor-homing peptides can be used to deliver drugs into tumors. Phage library screening in live mice has recently identified homing peptides that specifically recognize the endothelium of tumor vessels, extravasate, and penetrate deep into the extravascular tumor tissue. The prototypic peptide of this class, iRGD (CRGDKGPDC, contains the integrin-binding RGD motif. RGD mediates tumor homing through binding to αv integrins, which are selectively expressed on various cells in tumors, including tumor endothelial cells. The tumor-penetrating properties of iRGD are mediated by a second sequence motif, R/KXXR/K. This C-end Rule (or CendR motif is active only when the second basic residue is exposed at the C-terminus of the peptide. Proteolytic processing of iRGD in tumors activates the cryptic CendR motif, which then binds to neuropilin-1 activating an endocytic bulk transport pathway through tumor tissue. Phage screening has also yielded tumor-penetrating peptides that function like iRGD in activating the CendR pathway, but bind to a different primary receptor. Moreover, novel tumor-homing peptides can be constructed from tumor-homing motifs, CendR elements and protease cleavage sites. Pathologies other than tumors can be targeted with tissue-penetrating peptides, and the primary receptor can also be a vascular zip code of a normal tissue. The CendR technology provides a solution to a major problem in tumor therapy, poor penetration of drugs into tumors. The tumor-penetrating peptides are capable of taking a payload deep into tumor tissue in mice, and they also penetrate into human tumors ex vivo. Targeting with these peptides specifically increases the accumulation in tumors of a variety of drugs and contrast agents, such as doxorubicin, antibodies and nanoparticle-based compounds. Remarkably the drug to be targeted does not have to be coupled to the peptide; the bulk transport system activated by the peptide sweeps along any compound that is
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Russell Weaver
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Proponents of voter photographic identification (ID laws in the United States have argued that such measures can increase overall voter turnout. The implications of this proposition contradict classic models of voting behavior, which state that voting costs and electoral participation are inversely related. The present article/research note explores this tension in the context of some fundamental economic concepts. Namely, after identifying characteristics of a voting “market” that might facilitate the outcome in question, a simple model of that market is developed and used to simulate changes in turnout due to changes in voter ID rules for a hypothetical polity. Counter to proponents’ claims, the findings suggest that voter ID laws tend to decrease turnout, even when most voters place positive value on stricter (i.e., fraud preventing voting regulations. That being said, the model is intentionally simplistic, and it is put forward primarily as a tool for thinking critically about the relationship between voter ID laws and electoral participation. Because data that are suited to empirical analyses of this relationship are lacking, complementary techniques, such as modeling and simulation, are useful for testing unverified hypotheses about voter ID rules from the political discourse. The simple exercises in this research note begin to fill this gap, though they function most readily as points of departure for future research.
Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.
2011-01-01
Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.
Goldberg, Samuel
1960-01-01
Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.
Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.
2011-01-01
Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.
Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities
Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value
2004-01-01
Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the
Agreeing Probability Measures for Comparative Probability Structures
P.P. Wakker (Peter)
1981-01-01
textabstractIt is proved that fine and tight comparative probability structures (where the set of events is assumed to be an algebra, not necessarily a σ-algebra) have agreeing probability measures. Although this was often claimed in the literature, all proofs the author encountered are not valid
Python penetration testing essentials
Mohit
2015-01-01
If you are a Python programmer or a security researcher who has basic knowledge of Python programming and want to learn about penetration testing with the help of Python, this book is ideal for you. Even if you are new to the field of ethical hacking, this book can help you find the vulnerabilities in your system so that you are ready to tackle any kind of attack or intrusion.
Prediction of alumina penetration
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mandell, D A
1993-02-01
The MESA hydrocode was used to predict two-dimensional tests of L/D 10 and L/D 15 tungsten rods impacting AD 90 alumina with a steel backing. The residual penetration into the steel is the measured quantity in these experiments conducted at the Southwest Research Institute (SWR). The interface velocity as a function of time between an alumina target and a lithium fluoride window, impacted by an alumina disk at velocities between 544 m/s and 2329 m/s, was also predicted. These one-dimensional flyer plate experiments were conducted at Sandia National Laboratories using Coors AD 995 alumina. The material strength and fracture models are important in the prediction of ceramic experiments. The models used in these predictions are discussed. The penetrations in the two-dimensional tests were predicted to 11.4 percent or better. In five of the six experiments, the predicted penetration depth was deeper than the measured value. This trend is expected since the calculation is based on ideal conditions. The results show that good agreement between the 1-D flyer plate data and the MESA predictions exists at the lower impact velocities, but the maximum velocity is overpredicted as the flyer plate velocity increases. At a flyer plate velocity of 2329 m/s the code overpredicted the data by 12.3 percent.
PENETRATION ENHANCERS: A NOVEL STRATEGY FOR ENHANCING TRANSDERMAL DRUG DELIVERY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Singla Vikas
2011-12-01
Full Text Available Skin penetration enhancers have been used to improve bioavailability and increase the range of drugs to be administered by topical and transdermal route. Enhancement in skin penetration via modification of the stratum corneum by hydration, or via use of chemical enhancers acting on the structure of the stratum corneum lipids and keratin, partitioning and solubility effects. The mechanism of action of penetration enhancers are used as an aid in potential clinical applications. Synthetic chemicals generally used for this purposes are rapidly losing their value in transdermal patches due to reports of their absorption into the systemic circulation and subsequent possible toxic effect upon long term application. Terpenes are included in the list of Generally Recognized as Safe (GRAS substances and have low irritancy potential. In this review, we have discussed the chemical penetration as well as natural penetration enhancement technology for transdermal drug delivery as well as the probable mechanisms of action.
Sperm penetration assay and its correlation with semen analysis parameters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Laxmi Kant Pandey
2015-11-01
Full Text Available Background: Aim of current study was to determine whether the Sperm Penetration Assay (SPA can be used as a test to discriminate the infertile male from fertile one. We have also correlated the SPA with semen analysis. Methods: Sperm characteristics namely Semen analysis and the sperm penetration assay were tested in 44 infertile and 10 fertile men. Sperm penetration assay was determined by using zona free hamster eggs. Results: With decreasing spermatozoa concentration in the semen there was significant decrease in percentage penetration of zona free Hamster eggs (p0.05. Conclusions: The Sperm penetration assay could discriminate the infertile group from fertile group significantly (p<0.001. The test appeared to be highly reproducible and probably identifies a truly infertile male. [Int J Res Med Sci 2015; 3(11.000: 3197-3201
An Overview of Penetration Testing
2011-01-01
Penetration testing is a series of activities undertaken to identify and exploit security vulnerabilities. It helps confirm the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of the security measures that have been implemented. This paper provides an overview of penetration testing. It discusses the benefits, the strategies and the methodology of conducting penetration testing. The methodology of penetration testing includes three phases: test preparation, test and test analysis. The test phase involves ...
Planetary penetrators: Their origins, history and future
Lorenz, Ralph D.
2011-08-01
Penetrators, which emplace scientific instrumentation by high-speed impact into a planetary surface, have been advocated as an alternative to soft-landers for some four decades. However, such vehicles have yet to fly successfully. This paper reviews in detail, the origins of penetrators in the military arena, and the various planetary penetrator mission concepts that have been proposed, built and flown. From the very limited data available, penetrator developments alone (without delivery to the planet) have required ˜$30M: extensive analytical instrumentation may easily double this. Because the success of emplacement and operation depends inevitably on uncontrollable aspects of the target environment, unattractive failure probabilities for individual vehicles must be tolerated that are higher than the typical '3-sigma' (99.5%) values typical for spacecraft. The two pathways to programmatic success, neither of which are likely in an austere financial environment, are a lucky flight as a 'piggyback' mission or technology demonstration, or with a substantial and unprecedented investment to launch a scientific (e.g. seismic) network mission with a large number of vehicles such that a number of terrain-induced failures can be tolerated.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
刘翔宇; 胡雪凯; 胡文平; 梁纪峰; 马慧卓
2016-01-01
Optimization of unit start-up sequence is studied considering line start-up time, switch line failure and unit start-up time. Firstly, line start-up time model is built based on line remote operation and probability of success operation, and line start-up time expectation is calculated as line weights. Secondly, unit start-up time, output characteristic and phase operation capability are studied to propose unit limit factor in the restoration. Then, Dijkstra algorithm is used to calculate the shortest path, unit comprehensive priority index is defined. Aiming at units rapidly start up, the units restoration optimization algorithm is put forward guiding by greedy thought to calculate the best restoration sequence, considering real-time line operation condition. At last, the proposed method is validated on the IEEE 39-bus power system. The achievements obtained in this paper have reference value and active meaning to the preplan formulation of black start and its online decision-making system development.%研究了考虑线路投运时限、投运失败和机组投运时限的发电机启动路径优化问题。首先考虑线路远程操作和投运成功概率，建立了线路投运时限模型，求取了线路投运的时间期望作为线路的权值。然后研究了机组的启动时限、出力特点和进相运行能力，提出了机组在黑启动过程中的限制因素。接着以迪克拉斯算法计算最短路径，定义了机组综合优先级指标。算法实时考虑线路投运状况以贪心思想为指导提出了以迅速投运发电机组为目标的机组投运优化算法求取最优启动路径。最后应用 IEEE39节点算例对所提出方法进行了分析验证。所得的研究成果对电力系统黑启动预案的制定和在线决策系统的开发具备参考价值和积极意义。
An Overview of Penetration Testing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aileen G. Bacudio
2011-12-01
Full Text Available Penetration testing is a series of activities undertaken to identify and exploit security vulnerabilities. It helps confirm the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of the security measures that have been implemented. This paper provides an overview of penetration testing. It discusses the benefits, the strategies and the methodology of conducting penetration testing. The methodology of penetration testing includes three phases: test preparation, test and test analysis. The test phase involves the following steps: information gathering, vulnerability analysis, and vulnerability exploit. This paper further illustrates how to apply this methodology to conduct penetration testing on two example web applications.
Probability and Relative Frequency
Drieschner, Michael
2016-01-01
The concept of probability seems to have been inexplicable since its invention in the seventeenth century. In its use in science, probability is closely related with relative frequency. So the task seems to be interpreting that relation. In this paper, we start with predicted relative frequency and show that its structure is the same as that of probability. I propose to call that the `prediction interpretation' of probability. The consequences of that definition are discussed. The "ladder"-structure of the probability calculus is analyzed. The expectation of the relative frequency is shown to be equal to the predicted relative frequency. Probability is shown to be the most general empirically testable prediction.
Elements of probability theory
Rumshiskii, L Z
1965-01-01
Elements of Probability Theory presents the methods of the theory of probability. This book is divided into seven chapters that discuss the general rule for the multiplication of probabilities, the fundamental properties of the subject matter, and the classical definition of probability. The introductory chapters deal with the functions of random variables; continuous random variables; numerical characteristics of probability distributions; center of the probability distribution of a random variable; definition of the law of large numbers; stability of the sample mean and the method of moments
Evaluating probability forecasts
Lai, Tze Leung; Shen, David Bo; 10.1214/11-AOS902
2012-01-01
Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.
Engineering and Design: Standard Penetration Test
2007-11-02
Penetration TestDe Contract Number Grant Number Program Element Number Author(s) Project Number Task Number Work Unit Number Performing Organization Name...jsfi I I US* of drlXXi~ mucl -r*ueusiog In I Decrm8e8 hcrea8ea Zither Increases Increases Increeses Decrea8es lncreeaes Increases Increeaes Zither &creases DecrU8e* nem8*s hcruses Xnt-ses tieee Utber k~ee Enclosure 2
The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.
Roussas, George G
2006-01-01
Roussas's Introduction to Probability features exceptionally clear explanations of the mathematics of probability theory and explores its diverse applications through numerous interesting and motivational examples. It provides a thorough introduction to the subject for professionals and advanced students taking their first course in probability. The content is based on the introductory chapters of Roussas's book, An Intoduction to Probability and Statistical Inference, with additional chapters and revisions. Written by a well-respected author known for great exposition an
Philosophical theories of probability
Gillies, Donald
2000-01-01
The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kumar Shravan
2014-04-01
Full Text Available : Network Security is becoming more and more crucial as the volume of data being exchanged on the Internet increases. When people use Internet, they have certain expectations. They expect confidentiality, data integrity and authentication (CIA Standards. In 1980’s most organizations had only a physical boundary that needed protection of the assets. Today, due to the changes in the way resources are made available Organizations are forced to verify that their assets are protected from both the external and internal threats that our working environment has enabled. Due to the increasing dependency of our society on networked information system the overall security of these systems should be measured and improved. The most accurate method to evaluate organization’s information security stance is to observe how it stands up against an attack. Network administrators have often tried their best by improving their network security, however with rapid surface of new exploits; the best way of ensuring that the system is secure is to attempt penetration testing. This would be the most effective way to find exploits and to proof whether a system is vulnerable. Penetration test ing often allows the security analyst to find new vulnerabilities.
Edwards, William F.; Shiflett, Ray C.; Shultz, Harris
2008-01-01
The mathematical model used to describe independence between two events in probability has a non-intuitive consequence called dependent spaces. The paper begins with a very brief history of the development of probability, then defines dependent spaces, and reviews what is known about finite spaces with uniform probability. The study of finite…
Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia
We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned
Interpretations of probability
Khrennikov, Andrei
2009-01-01
This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.
Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia
2013-01-01
We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned prob
Penetration Dynamics of Earth Penetration Warhead into Composite Target Media
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
P. K. Roy
1987-07-01
Full Text Available Attempts have been made to develop a suitable computer code that can find solutions to the axi-symmetric penetration of an Earth Penetrating Warhead yielding complete space-time histories of the resistive force offered by the target medium. The consequent warhead deceleration and velocity reduction, the resulting axial compressive stress developed in warhead casing as the penetration process progresses into the composite target media consisting of hard concrete of specified thickness followed by earth soil have been discussed.
Dynamical Simulation of Probabilities
Zak, Michail
1996-01-01
It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-Lipschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices(such as random number generators). Self-orgainizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed. Special attention was focused upon coupled stochastic processes, defined in terms of conditional probabilities, for which joint probability does not exist. Simulations of quantum probabilities are also discussed.
Childers, Timothy
2013-01-01
Probability is increasingly important for our understanding of the world. What is probability? How do we model it, and how do we use it? Timothy Childers presents a lively introduction to the foundations of probability and to philosophical issues it raises. He keeps technicalities to a minimum, and assumes no prior knowledge of the subject. He explains the main interpretations of probability-frequentist, propensity, classical, Bayesian, and objective Bayesian-and uses stimulatingexamples to bring the subject to life. All students of philosophy will benefit from an understanding of probability,
Localizing Ground-Penetrating Radar
2014-11-01
ing Ground-Penetrating Radar (LGPR) uses very high frequency (VHF) radar reflections of underground features to generate base- line maps and then...Innovative ground- penetrating radar that maps underground geological features provides autonomous vehicles with real-time localization. Localizing...NOV 2014 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Localizing Ground-Penetrating Radar 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER
Penetration Tester's Open Source Toolkit
Faircloth, Jeremy
2011-01-01
Great commercial penetration testing tools can be very expensive and sometimes hard to use or of questionable accuracy. This book helps solve both of these problems. The open source, no-cost penetration testing tools presented do a great job and can be modified by the user for each situation. Many tools, even ones that cost thousands of dollars, do not come with any type of instruction on how and in which situations the penetration tester can best use them. Penetration Tester's Open Source Toolkit, Third Edition, expands upon existing instructions so that a professional can get the most accura
Physical Penetration Testing: A Whole New Story in Penetration Testing
Dimkov, Trajce; Pieters, Wolter
2011-01-01
Physical penetration testing plays an important role in assuring a company that the security policies are properly enforced and that the security awareness of the employees is on the appropriate level. In physical penetration tests the tester physically enters restricted locations and directly inter
Probability and radical behaviorism
Espinosa, James M.
1992-01-01
The concept of probability appears to be very important in the radical behaviorism of Skinner. Yet, it seems that this probability has not been accurately defined and is still ambiguous. I give a strict, relative frequency interpretation of probability and its applicability to the data from the science of behavior as supplied by cumulative records. Two examples of stochastic processes are given that may model the data from cumulative records that result under conditions of continuous reinforcement and extinction, respectively. PMID:22478114
Probability and radical behaviorism
Espinosa, James M.
1992-01-01
The concept of probability appears to be very important in the radical behaviorism of Skinner. Yet, it seems that this probability has not been accurately defined and is still ambiguous. I give a strict, relative frequency interpretation of probability and its applicability to the data from the science of behavior as supplied by cumulative records. Two examples of stochastic processes are given that may model the data from cumulative records that result under conditions of continuous reinforc...
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, REPORTS), (*PROBABILITY, REPORTS), INFORMATION THEORY, DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS, STATISTICAL PROCESSES, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, DISTRIBUTION THEORY , DECISION THEORY, MEASURE THEORY, OPTIMIZATION
Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E
1972-01-01
Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var
Florescu, Ionut
2013-01-01
THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio
On the computability of conditional probability
Ackerman, Nathanael L; Roy, Daniel M
2010-01-01
We study the problem of computing conditional probabilities, a fundamental operation in statistics and machine learning. In the elementary discrete setting, a ratio of probabilities defines conditional probability. In the abstract setting, conditional probability is defined axiomatically and the search for more constructive definitions is the subject of a rich literature in probability theory and statistics. In the discrete or dominated setting, under suitable computability hypotheses, conditional probabilities are computable. However, we show that in general one cannot compute conditional probabilities. We do this by constructing a pair of computable random variables in the unit interval whose conditional distribution encodes the halting problem at almost every point. We show that this result is tight, in the sense that given an oracle for the halting problem, one can compute this conditional distribution. On the other hand, we show that conditioning in abstract settings is computable in the presence of cert...
Failure Engineered Heavy Metal Penetrators
1992-12-01
ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY Failure Engineered Heavy Metal Penetrators, Phase I, SBIR ARL-CR-5· R. Cavalieri, W. Tiarn, and D. Nicholson prepared...REPORT DATE S. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 1992 Final Report-1/1/92 - 7/31/92 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE FAILURE ENGINEERED HEAVY METAL PENETRATORS
Electromagnetic Field Penetration Studies
Deshpande, M.D.
2000-01-01
A numerical method is presented to determine electromagnetic shielding effectiveness of rectangular enclosure with apertures on its wall used for input and output connections, control panels, visual-access windows, ventilation panels, etc. Expressing EM fields in terms of cavity Green's function inside the enclosure and the free space Green's function outside the enclosure, integral equations with aperture tangential electric fields as unknown variables are obtained by enforcing the continuity of tangential electric and magnetic fields across the apertures. Using the Method of Moments, the integral equations are solved for unknown aperture fields. From these aperture fields, the EM field inside a rectangular enclosure due to external electromagnetic sources are determined. Numerical results on electric field shielding of a rectangular cavity with a thin rectangular slot obtained using the present method are compared with the results obtained using simple transmission line technique for code validation. The present technique is applied to determine field penetration inside a Boeing-757 by approximating its passenger cabin as a rectangular cavity filled with a homogeneous medium and its passenger windows by rectangular apertures. Preliminary results for, two windows, one on each side of fuselage were considered. Numerical results for Boeing-757 at frequencies 26 MHz, 171-175 MHz, and 428-432 MHz are presented.
Porter, D. L.; Goemmer, S. A.; Sweeney, J. H.
2014-12-01
Ice draft measurements are made as part of normal operations for all US Navy submarines operating in the Arctic Ocean. The submarine ice draft data are unique in providing high resolution measurements over long transects of the ice covered ocean. The data has been used to document a multidecadal drop in ice thickness, and for validating and improving numerical sea-ice models. A submarine upward-looking sonar draft measurement is made by a sonar transducer mounted in the sail or deck of the submarine. An acoustic beam is transmitted upward through the water column, reflecting off the bottom of the sea ice and returning to the transducer. Ice thickness is estimated as the difference between the ship's depth (measured by pressure) and the acoustic range to the bottom of the ice estimated from the travel time of the sonar pulse. Digital recording systems can provide the return off the water-ice interface as well as returns that have penetrated the ice. Typically, only the first return from the ice hull is analyzed. Information regarding ice flow interstitial layers provides ice age information and may possibly be derived with the entire return signal. The approach being investigated is similar to that used in measuring bottom sediment layers and will involve measuring the echo level from the first interface, solving the reflection loss from that transmission, and employing reflection loss versus impedance mismatch to ascertain ice structure information.
On Quantum Conditional Probability
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Isabel Guerra Bobo
2013-02-01
Full Text Available We argue that quantum theory does not allow for a generalization of the notion of classical conditional probability by showing that the probability defined by the Lüders rule, standardly interpreted in the literature as the quantum-mechanical conditionalization rule, cannot be interpreted as such.
Choice Probability Generating Functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...
Freund, John E
1993-01-01
Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.
Choice Probability Generating Functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2013-01-01
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...
Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Varacca, Daniele
Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...
An Earth Penetrating Modeling Assessment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stokes, E; Yarrington, P; Glenn, L
2005-06-21
Documentation of a study to assess the capability of computer codes to predict lateral loads on earth penetrating projectiles under conditions of non-normal impact. Calculations simulated a set of small scale penetration tests into concrete targets with oblique faces at angles of 15 and 30 degrees to the line-of-flight. Predictive codes used by the various calculational teams cover a wide range of modeling approaches from approximate techniques, such as cavity expansion, to numerical methods, such as finite element codes. The modeling assessment was performed under the auspices of the Phenomenology Integrated Product Team (PIPT) for the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator Program (RNEP). Funding for the penetration experiments and modeling was provided by multiple earth penetrator programs.
Exact Probability Distribution versus Entropy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kerstin Andersson
2014-10-01
Full Text Available The problem addressed concerns the determination of the average number of successive attempts of guessing a word of a certain length consisting of letters with given probabilities of occurrence. Both first- and second-order approximations to a natural language are considered. The guessing strategy used is guessing words in decreasing order of probability. When word and alphabet sizes are large, approximations are necessary in order to estimate the number of guesses. Several kinds of approximations are discussed demonstrating moderate requirements regarding both memory and central processing unit (CPU time. When considering realistic sizes of alphabets and words (100, the number of guesses can be estimated within minutes with reasonable accuracy (a few percent and may therefore constitute an alternative to, e.g., various entropy expressions. For many probability distributions, the density of the logarithm of probability products is close to a normal distribution. For those cases, it is possible to derive an analytical expression for the average number of guesses. The proportion of guesses needed on average compared to the total number decreases almost exponentially with the word length. The leading term in an asymptotic expansion can be used to estimate the number of guesses for large word lengths. Comparisons with analytical lower bounds and entropy expressions are also provided.
Billingsley, Patrick
2012-01-01
Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this
Physical Penetration Testing: A Whole New Story in Penetration Testing
2011-01-01
Physical penetration testing plays an important role in assuring a company that the security policies are properly enforced and that the security awareness of the employees is on the appropriate level. In physical penetration tests the tester physically enters restricted locations and directly interacts with the employees to convince them to break a policy or provide credentials. The physical access and the direct interaction with the employees complicate the execution of the tests and have e...
Hartmann, Stephan
2011-01-01
Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...
Concepts of probability theory
Pfeiffer, Paul E
1979-01-01
Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.
Hemmo, Meir
2012-01-01
What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive.
Probability and Bayesian statistics
1987-01-01
This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...
Grimmett, Geoffrey
2014-01-01
Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...
THE NUCLEAR ENCOUNTER PROBABILITY
SMULDERS, PJM
1994-01-01
This Letter dicusses the nuclear encounter probability as used in ion channeling analysis. A formulation is given, incorporating effects of large beam angles and beam divergence. A critical examination of previous definitions is made.
Shorack, Galen R
2017-01-01
This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...
Probability and Statistical Inference
Prosper, Harrison B.
2006-01-01
These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.
Probability in quantum mechanics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. G. Gilson
1982-01-01
Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.
Quantum computing and probability.
Ferry, David K
2009-11-25
Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.
Monte Carlo transition probabilities
Lucy, L. B.
2001-01-01
Transition probabilities governing the interaction of energy packets and matter are derived that allow Monte Carlo NLTE transfer codes to be constructed without simplifying the treatment of line formation. These probabilities are such that the Monte Carlo calculation asymptotically recovers the local emissivity of a gas in statistical equilibrium. Numerical experiments with one-point statistical equilibrium problems for Fe II and Hydrogen confirm this asymptotic behaviour. In addition, the re...
Towards a Categorical Account of Conditional Probability
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Robert Furber
2015-11-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a categorical account of conditional probability, covering both the classical and the quantum case. Classical conditional probabilities are expressed as a certain "triangle-fill-in" condition, connecting marginal and joint probabilities, in the Kleisli category of the distribution monad. The conditional probabilities are induced by a map together with a predicate (the condition. The latter is a predicate in the logic of effect modules on this Kleisli category. This same approach can be transferred to the category of C*-algebras (with positive unital maps, whose predicate logic is also expressed in terms of effect modules. Conditional probabilities can again be expressed via a triangle-fill-in property. In the literature, there are several proposals for what quantum conditional probability should be, and also there are extra difficulties not present in the classical case. At this stage, we only describe quantum systems with classical parametrization.
Penetration through the Skin Barrier
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Jesper Bo; Benfeldt, Eva; Holmgaard, Rikke
2016-01-01
. During recent decades, the latter has received increased attention as a route for intentionally delivering drugs to patients. This has stimulated research in methods for sampling, measuring and predicting percutaneous penetration. Previous chapters have described how different endogenous, genetic...... and exogenous factors may affect barrier characteristics. The present chapter introduces the theory for barrier penetration (Fick's law), and describes and discusses different methods for measuring the kinetics of percutaneous penetration of chemicals, including in vitro methods (static and flow......-through diffusion cells) as well as in vivo methods (microdialysis and microperfusion). Then follows a discussion with examples of how different characteristics of the skin (age, site and integrity) and of the penetrants (size, solubility, ionization, logPow and vehicles) affect the kinetics of percutaneous...
PENCALC: a program for penetrance estimation in autosomal dominant diseases
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andréa R.V. Russo Horimoto
2010-01-01
Full Text Available We present a computer program developed for estimating penetrance rates in autosomal dominant diseases by means of family kinship and phenotype information contained within the pedigrees. The program also determines the exact 95% credibility interval for the penetrance estimate. Both executable (PenCalc for Windows and web versions (PenCalcWeb of the software are available. The web version enables further calculations, such as heterozygosity probabilities and assessment of offspring risks for all individuals in the pedigrees. Both programs can be accessed and down-loaded freely at the home-page address http://www.ib.usp.br/~otto/software.htm.
The perception of probability.
Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E
2014-01-01
We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making.
Cement penetration after patella venting.
Jones, Christopher W; Lam, Li-On; Butler, Adam; Wood, David J; Walsh, William R
2009-01-01
There is a high rate of patellofemoral complications following total knee arthroplasty. Optimization of the cement-bone interface by venting and suction of the tibial plateau has been shown to improve cement penetration. Our study was designed to investigate if venting the patella prior to cementing improved cement penetration. Ten paired cadaver patellae were allocated prior to resurfacing to be vented or non-vented. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured by DEXA scanning. In vented specimens, a 1.6 mm Kirschner wire was used to breach the anterior cortex at the center. Specimens were resurfaced with standard Profix instrumentation and Versabond bone cement (Smith and Nephew PLC, UK). Cement penetration was assessed from Faxitron and sectioned images by a digital image software package (ImageJ V1.38, NIH, USA). Wilcoxon rank sum test was used to assess the difference in cement penetration between groups. The relationship between BMD and cement penetration was analyzed by Pearson correlation coefficient. There was a strong negative correlation between peak BMD and cement penetration when analyzed independent of experimental grouping (r(2)=-0.812, p=0.004). Wilcoxon rank sum testing demonstrated no significant difference (rank sum statistic W=27, p=0.579) in cement penetration between vented (10.53%+/-4.66; mean+/-std dev) and non-vented patellae (11.51%+/-6.23; mean+/-std dev). Venting the patella using a Kirschner wire does not have a significant effect on the amount of cement penetration achieved in vitro using Profix instrumentation and Versabond cement.
Is Color Experience Cognitively Penetrable?
Brogaard, Berit; Gatzia, Dimitria E
2017-01-01
Is color experience cognitively penetrable? Some philosophers have recently argued that it is. In this paper, we take issue with the claim that color experience is cognitively penetrable. We argue that the notion of cognitive penetration that has recently dominated the literature is flawed since it fails to distinguish between the modulation of perceptual content by non-perceptual principles and genuine cognitive penetration. We use this distinction to show that studies suggesting that color experience can be modulated by factors of the cognitive system do not establish that color experience is cognitively penetrable. Additionally, we argue that even if color experience turns out to be modulated by color-related beliefs and knowledge beyond non-perceptual principles, it does not follow that color experience is cognitively penetrable since the experiences of determinate hues involve post-perceptual processes. We conclude with a brief discussion of the implications that these ideas may have on debates in philosophy. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
Experimental Probability in Elementary School
Andrew, Lane
2009-01-01
Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.
Experimental Probability in Elementary School
Andrew, Lane
2009-01-01
Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.
Isaac, Richard
1995-01-01
The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...
Zurek, W H
2004-01-01
I show how probabilities arise in quantum physics by exploring implications of {\\it environment - assisted invariance} or {\\it envariance}, a recently discovered symmetry exhibited by entangled quantum systems. Envariance of perfectly entangled states can be used to rigorously justify complete ignorance of the observer about the outcome of any measurement on either of the members of the entangled pair. Envariance leads to Born's rule, $p_k \\propto |\\psi_k|^2$. Probabilities derived in this manner are an objective reflection of the underlying state of the system -- they reflect experimentally verifiable symmetries, and not just a subjective ``state of knowledge'' of the observer. Envariance - based approach is compared with and found superior to the key pre-quantum definitions of probability including the {\\it standard definition} based on the `principle of indifference' due to Laplace, and the {\\it relative frequency approach} advocated by von Mises. Implications of envariance for the interpretation of quantu...
Collision Probability Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup
1998-01-01
It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2010-01-01
This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications...
Negative Probabilities and Contextuality
de Barros, J Acacio; Oas, Gary
2015-01-01
There has been a growing interest, both in physics and psychology, in understanding contextuality in experimentally observed quantities. Different approaches have been proposed to deal with contextual systems, and a promising one is contextuality-by-default, put forth by Dzhafarov and Kujala. The goal of this paper is to present a tutorial on a different approach: negative probabilities. We do so by presenting the overall theory of negative probabilities in a way that is consistent with contextuality-by-default and by examining with this theory some simple examples where contextuality appears, both in physics and psychology.
Introduction to imprecise probabilities
Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M
2014-01-01
In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Carr, D.B.; Tolley, H.D.
1982-12-01
This paper investigates procedures for univariate nonparametric estimation of tail probabilities. Extrapolated values for tail probabilities beyond the data are also obtained based on the shape of the density in the tail. Several estimators which use exponential weighting are described. These are compared in a Monte Carlo study to nonweighted estimators, to the empirical cdf, to an integrated kernel, to a Fourier series estimate, to a penalized likelihood estimate and a maximum likelihood estimate. Selected weighted estimators are shown to compare favorably to many of these standard estimators for the sampling distributions investigated.
Classic Problems of Probability
Gorroochurn, Prakash
2012-01-01
"A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin
Plotnitsky, Arkady
2010-01-01
Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general
Counterexamples in probability
Stoyanov, Jordan M
2013-01-01
While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.
Varga, Tamas
This booklet resulted from a 1980 visit by the author, a Hungarian mathematics educator, to the Teachers' Center Project at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville. Included are activities and problems that make probablility concepts accessible to young children. The topics considered are: two probability games; choosing two beads; matching…
Collision Probability Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup
1998-01-01
probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...
Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin
2010-12-01
Motivated by IF-probability theory (intuitionistic fuzzy), we study n-component probability domains in which each event represents a body of competing components and the range of a state represents a simplex S n of n-tuples of possible rewards-the sum of the rewards is a number from [0,1]. For n=1 we get fuzzy events, for example a bold algebra, and the corresponding fuzzy probability theory can be developed within the category ID of D-posets (equivalently effect algebras) of fuzzy sets and sequentially continuous D-homomorphisms. For n=2 we get IF-events, i.e., pairs ( μ, ν) of fuzzy sets μ, ν∈[0,1] X such that μ( x)+ ν( x)≤1 for all x∈ X, but we order our pairs (events) coordinatewise. Hence the structure of IF-events (where ( μ 1, ν 1)≤( μ 2, ν 2) whenever μ 1≤ μ 2 and ν 2≤ ν 1) is different and, consequently, the resulting IF-probability theory models a different principle. The category ID is cogenerated by I=[0,1] (objects of ID are subobjects of powers I X ), has nice properties and basic probabilistic notions and constructions are categorical. For example, states are morphisms. We introduce the category S n D cogenerated by Sn=\\{(x1,x2,ldots ,xn)in In;sum_{i=1}nxi≤ 1\\} carrying the coordinatewise partial order, difference, and sequential convergence and we show how basic probability notions can be defined within S n D.
[Videothoracospy in thoracic trauma and penetrating injuries].
Lang-Lazdunski, L; Chapuis, O; Pons, F; Jancovici, R
2003-03-01
Videothoracoscopy represents a valid and useful approach in some patients with blunt chest trauma or penetrating thoracic injury. This technique has been validated for the treatment of clotted hemothorax or posttraumatic empyema, traumatic chylothorax, traumatic pneumothorax, in patients with hemodynamic stability. Moreover, it is probably the most reliable technique for the diagnosis of diaphragmatic injury. It is also useful for the extraction of intrathoracic projectiles and foreign bodies. This technique might be useful in hemodynamically stable patients with continued bleeding or for the exploration of patients with penetrating injury in the cardiac area, although straightforward data are lacking to confirm those indications. Thoracotomy or median sternotomy remain indicated in patients with hemodynamic instability or those that cannot tolerate lateral decubitus position or one-lung ventilation. Performing video-surgery in the trauma setting require expertise in both video-assisted thoracic surgery and chest trauma management. The contra-indications to videothoracoscopy and indications for converting the procedure to an open thoracotomy should be perfectly known by surgeons performing video-assisted thoracic surgery in the trauma setting. Conversion to thoracotomy or median sternotomy should be performed without delay whenever needed to avoid blood loss and achieve an adequate procedure.
Negative probability in the framework of combined probability
Burgin, Mark
2013-01-01
Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...
Negative probability in the framework of combined probability
Burgin, Mark
2013-01-01
Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...
Multinomial mixture model with heterogeneous classification probabilities
Holland, M.D.; Gray, B.R.
2011-01-01
Royle and Link (Ecology 86(9):2505-2512, 2005) proposed an analytical method that allowed estimation of multinomial distribution parameters and classification probabilities from categorical data measured with error. While useful, we demonstrate algebraically and by simulations that this method yields biased multinomial parameter estimates when the probabilities of correct category classifications vary among sampling units. We address this shortcoming by treating these probabilities as logit-normal random variables within a Bayesian framework. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to compute Bayes estimates from a simulated sample from the posterior distribution. Based on simulations, this elaborated Royle-Link model yields nearly unbiased estimates of multinomial and correct classification probability estimates when classification probabilities are allowed to vary according to the normal distribution on the logit scale or according to the Beta distribution. The method is illustrated using categorical submersed aquatic vegetation data. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.
Paradoxes in probability theory
Eckhardt, William
2013-01-01
Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory. Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies. Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.
Contributions to quantum probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fritz, Tobias
2010-06-25
Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a
Superpositions of probability distributions
Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen
2008-09-01
Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=σ2 play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.
Superpositions of probability distributions.
Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen
2008-09-01
Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=sigma;{2} play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.
Probability theory and applications
Hsu, Elton P
1999-01-01
This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.
Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph
2008-06-01
We explore six classes of fractal probability laws defined on the positive half-line: Weibull, Frechét, Lévy, hyper Pareto, hyper beta, and hyper shot noise. Each of these classes admits a unique statistical power-law structure, and is uniquely associated with a certain operation of renormalization. All six classes turn out to be one-dimensional projections of underlying Poisson processes which, in turn, are the unique fixed points of Poissonian renormalizations. The first three classes correspond to linear Poissonian renormalizations and are intimately related to extreme value theory (Weibull, Frechét) and to the central limit theorem (Lévy). The other three classes correspond to nonlinear Poissonian renormalizations. Pareto's law--commonly perceived as the "universal fractal probability distribution"--is merely a special case of the hyper Pareto class.
von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo
2014-06-01
Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.
Measurement uncertainty and probability
Willink, Robin
2013-01-01
A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.
1983-07-26
DeGroot , Morris H. Probability and Statistic. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading, Massachusetts, 1975. [Gillogly 78] Gillogly, J.J. Performance...distribution [ DeGroot 751 has just begun. The beta distribution has several features that might make it a more reasonable choice. As with the normal-based...1982. [Cooley 65] Cooley, J.M. and Tukey, J.W. An algorithm for the machine calculation of complex Fourier series. Math. Comp. 19, 1965. [ DeGroot 75
Whittle, Peter
1992-01-01
This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...
The Penetration of Shaped Charges
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Wu Mingde
1996-01-01
@@ In order to get the best perforating effect, many facts have to be considered. Perforating job is often design by computer. A perforating engineer has to decide the perforating technology and procedure, the gun and charge system, the shot density and phasing, the penetration and hole size, etc.
FAA Fluorescent Penetrant Laboratory Inspections
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
WINDES,CONNOR L.; MOORE,DAVID G.
2000-08-02
The Federal Aviation Administration Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center currently assesses the capability of various non-destructive inspection (NDI) methods used for analyzing aircraft components. The focus of one such exercise is to evaluate the sensitivity of fluorescent liquid penetrant inspection. A baseline procedure using the water-washable fluorescent penetrant method defines a foundation for comparing the brightness of low cycle fatigue cracks in titanium test panels. The analysis of deviations in the baseline procedure will determine an acceptable range of operation for the steps in the inspection process. The data also gives insight into the depth of each crack and which step(s) of the inspection process most affect penetrant sensitivities. A set of six low cycle fatigue cracks produced in 6.35-mm thick Ti-6Al-4V specimens was used to conduct the experiments to produce sensitivity data. The results will document the consistency of the crack readings and compare previous experiments to find the best parameters for water-washable penetrant.
Stylet penetration activities by aphids
Tjallingii, W.F.
1985-01-01
The composition of stylet penetration behaviour in aphids and its possible role in food-plant selection is the subject of these studies. Evidence is presented that the labium is devoid of external chemoreceptors (Chapter 1). In addition to other morphological data (Wensler & Filshie, 1969; Wensler,
Penetration Physics of Armor Glass
2009-11-30
Penetration Response of Borosilicate Glass during Short Rod Impact”, Proc. 23rd Int. Symp. Ballistics, 2, 1251-1258, Graficas Couche, Madrid, Spain (2007...glass”, Proc. 23rd Int. Symp. Ballistics, 2, 1049-1056, Graficas Couche, Madrid, Spain (2007). 8D. R. Curran, “Comparison of Mesomechanical and
Whiting, Alan B
2014-01-01
Professor Sir Karl Popper (1902-1994) was one of the most influential philosophers of science of the twentieth century, best known for his doctrine of falsifiability. His axiomatic formulation of probability, however, is unknown to current scientists, though it is championed by several current philosophers of science as superior to the familiar version. Applying his system to problems identified by himself and his supporters, it is shown that it does not have some features he intended and does not solve the problems they have identified.
Probably Almost Bayes Decisions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Anoulova, S.; Fischer, Paul; Poelt, S.
1996-01-01
discriminant functions for this purpose. We analyze this approach for different classes of distribution functions of Boolean features:kth order Bahadur-Lazarsfeld expansions andkth order Chow expansions. In both cases, we obtain upper bounds for the required sample size which are small polynomials...... in the relevant parameters and which match the lower bounds known for these classes. Moreover, the learning algorithms are efficient.......In this paper, we investigate the problem of classifying objects which are given by feature vectors with Boolean entries. Our aim is to "(efficiently) learn probably almost optimal classifications" from examples. A classical approach in pattern recognition uses empirical estimations of the Bayesian...
Sirca, Simon
2016-01-01
This book is designed as a practical and intuitive introduction to probability, statistics and random quantities for physicists. The book aims at getting to the main points by a clear, hands-on exposition supported by well-illustrated and worked-out examples. A strong focus on applications in physics and other natural sciences is maintained throughout. In addition to basic concepts of random variables, distributions, expected values and statistics, the book discusses the notions of entropy, Markov processes, and fundamentals of random number generation and Monte-Carlo methods.
Generalized Probability Functions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexandre Souto Martinez
2009-01-01
Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.
Faske, T R
2013-03-01
Cucumis melo var. texanus, a wild melon commonly found in the southern United States and two accessions, Burleson Co. and MX 1230, expressed resistance to Meloidogyne incognita in preliminary experiments. To characterize the mechanism of resistance, we evaluated root penetration, post-penetration development, reproduction, and emigration of M. incognita on these two accessions of C. melo var. texanus. Additionally, we evaluated 22 accessions of C. melo var. texanus for their reaction against M. incognita in a greenhouse experiment. Fewer (P ≤ 0.05) J2 penetrated the root system of C. melo var. texanus accessions (Burleson Co. and MX 1230) and C. metuliferus (PI 482452) (resistant control), 7 days after inoculation (DAI) than in C. melo 'Hales Best Jumbo' (susceptible control). A delayed (P ≤ 0.05) rate of nematode development was observed at 7, 14, and 21 DAI that contributed to lower (P ≤ 0.05) egg production on both accessions and C. metuliferus compared with C. melo. Though J2 emigration was observed on all Cucumis genotypes a higher (P ≤ 0.05) rate of J2 emigration was observed from 3 to 6 DAI on accession Burleson Co. and C. metuliferus than on C. melo. The 22 accessions of C. melo var. texanus varied relative to their reaction to M. incognita with eight supporting similar levels of nematode reproduction to that of C. metuliferus. Cucumis melo var. texanus may be a useful source of resistance against root-knot nematode in melon.
Ground penetrating radar for asparagus detection
Seyfried, Daniel; Schoebel, Joerg
2016-03-01
Ground penetrating radar is a promising technique for detection of buried objects. Recently, radar has more and more been identified to provide benefits for a plurality of applications, where it can increase efficiency of operation. One of these fields is the industrial automatic harvesting process of asparagus, which is performed so far by cutting the soil ridge at a certain height including all the asparagus spears and subsequently sieving the latter out of the soil. However, the height where the soil is cut is a critical parameter, since a wrong value leads to either damage of the roots of the asparagus plants or to a reduced crop yield as a consequence of too much biomass remaining in the soil. In this paper we present a new approach which utilizes ground penetrating radar for non-invasive sensing in order to obtain information on the optimal height for cutting the soil. Hence, asparagus spears of maximal length can be obtained, while keeping the roots at the same time undamaged. We describe our radar system as well as the subsequent digital signal processing steps utilized for extracting the information required from the recorded radar data, which then can be fed into some harvesting unit for setting up the optimal cutting height.
Factors affecting penetrating captive bolt gun performance.
Gibson, Troy J; Mason, Charles W; Spence, Jade Y; Barker, Heather; Gregory, Neville G
2015-01-01
Captive bolt stunning is used for rendering livestock insensible at slaughter. The mechanical factors relating to performance of 6 penetrating captive bolt gun (CBG) models were examined. The Matador Super Sécurit 3000 and the .25 Cash Euro Stunner had the highest kinetic energy values (443 J and 412 J, respectively) of the CBGs tested. Ninety percent (27/30) of CBGs held at a government gun repository (United Kingdom) were found to have performed at a normal standard for the model, while 53% (10/19) of commercial contractor CBGs tested were found to underperform for the gun model. When the .22 Cash Special was fired 500 times at 4 shots per min, the gun reached a peak temperature of 88.8°C after 2.05 hr. Repeat firing during extended periods significantly reduced the performance of the CBG. When deciding on the appropriate CBG/cartridge combination, the kinetic energy delivered to the head of the nonhuman animal, bolt penetration depth, and species/animal type must be considered. It is recommended that CBGs are routinely checked for wear to the bolt and barrel if they are repeatedly fired in a session.
Investigating Probability with the NBA Draft Lottery.
Quinn, Robert J.
1997-01-01
Investigates an interesting application of probability in the world of sports. Considers the role of permutations in the lottery system used by the National Basketball Association (NBA) in the United States to determine the order in which nonplayoff teams select players from the college ranks. Presents a lesson on this topic in which students work…
Control of penetration zone GMAW
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Віталій Петрович Iванов
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Thermal properties of the base metal, shielding medium and the nature of the electrode metal transfer to a great extent determine the penetration area formation in gas-arc welding. It is not always possible to take into account the influence of these factors on penetration front forming within the existing models. The aim of the work was to research the penetration area forming in gas-arc welding. The research of the penetration area forming in gas-arc welding of CrNi austenitic steels was made. The parameters of the regime as well as the kind of the gaseous medium influence on the formation of the penetration zone were studied. The article shows a linear proportional relationship between the electrode feed rate and the size of the base metal plate. The penetration area formation mode for welding in argon and carbon dioxide have been worked out. Diameter, feed rate and the speed of the electrode movement have been chosen as the main input parameters. Multiple regression analysis method was used to make up the modes. The relations of the third order that make it possible to take into account the electrode metal transfer and thermal properties change of the materials to be welded were used. These relationships show quite good agreement with the experimental measurements in the calculation of the fusion zone shape with consumable electrode in argon and carbon dioxide. It was determined that the shape of the melting front curve can be shown as a generalized function in which the front motion parameters depend on feed rate and the diameter of the electrode. Penetration zone growth time is determined by the welding speed and is calculated as a discrete function of the distance from the electrode with the spacing along the movement coordinate. The influence of the mode parameters on the formation of the fusion zone has been investigated and the ways to manage and stabilize the weld pool formation have been identified. The modes can be used to develop
Akon - A Penetrator for Europa
Jones, Geraint
2016-04-01
Jupiter's moon Europa is one of the most intriguing objects in our Solar System. This 2000km-wide body has a geologically young solid water ice crust that is believed to cover a global ocean of liquid water. The presence of this ocean, together with a source of heating through tidal forces, make Europa a conceivable location for extraterrestrial life. The science case for exploring all aspects of this icy world is compelling. NASA has selected the Europa Mission (formerly Europa Clipper) to study Europa in detail in the 2020s through multiple flybys, and ESA's JUICE mission will perform two flybys of the body in the 2030s. The US agency has extended to the European Space Agency an invitation to provide a contribution to their mission. European scientists interested in Europa science and exploration are currently organizing themselves, in the framework of a coordinated Europa M5 Inititative to study concurrently the main options for this ESA contribution, from a simple addition of individual instruments to the NASA spacecraft, to a lander to investigate Europa's surface in situ. A high speed lander - a penetrator - is by far the most promising technology to achieve this latter option within the anticipated mass constraints, and studies of such a hard lander, many funded by ESA, are now at an advanced level. An international team to formally propose an Europa penetrator to ESA in response to the anticipated ESA M5 call is growing. The working title of this proposal is Akon (Άκων), named after the highly accurate javelin gifted to Europa by Zeus in ancient Greek mythology. We present plans for the Akon penetrator, which would impact Europa's surface at several hundred metres per second, and travel up to several metres into the moon's subsurface. To achieve this, the penetrator would be delivered to the surface by a dedicated descent module, to be destroyed on impact following release of the penetrator above the surface. It is planned that the instruments to be
Penetrating Stab Wound of the Right Ventricle
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Onursal Buğra
2010-04-01
Full Text Available 18 years old male patient was admitted to our emergency unit with a penetrating stab wound to the right ventricle. A stab wound to the right ventricle was found to be 3 cm in diameter. The bleeding was controlled by insertion of a Foley catheter and inflation of the balloon. The stab wound had transected distal acute marginal side ofthe right coronary artery. A successful repair was performed with the use of a foley catheter and application of the Medtronic Octopus Tissue Stabilization System. The wound was closed with pledgeted mattress sutures. The distal acute marginal side of the right coronary artery was ligated. In this presentation, the surgical intervention method was reported and followed by a discussion of emergency surgical procedures of the heart.
Measure, integral and probability
Capiński, Marek
2004-01-01
Measure, Integral and Probability is a gentle introduction that makes measure and integration theory accessible to the average third-year undergraduate student. The ideas are developed at an easy pace in a form that is suitable for self-study, with an emphasis on clear explanations and concrete examples rather than abstract theory. For this second edition, the text has been thoroughly revised and expanded. New features include: · a substantial new chapter, featuring a constructive proof of the Radon-Nikodym theorem, an analysis of the structure of Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures, the Hahn-Jordan decomposition, and a brief introduction to martingales · key aspects of financial modelling, including the Black-Scholes formula, discussed briefly from a measure-theoretical perspective to help the reader understand the underlying mathematical framework. In addition, further exercises and examples are provided to encourage the reader to become directly involved with the material.
Probabilities for Solar Siblings
Valtonen, Mauri; Bajkova, A. T.; Bobylev, V. V.; Mylläri, A.
2015-02-01
We have shown previously (Bobylev et al. Astron Lett 37:550-562, 2011) that some of the stars in the solar neighborhood today may have originated in the same star cluster as the Sun, and could thus be called Solar Siblings. In this work we investigate the sensitivity of this result to galactic models and to parameters of these models, and also extend the sample of orbits. There are a number of good candidates for the sibling category, but due to the long period of orbit evolution since the break-up of the birth cluster of the Sun, one can only attach probabilities of membership. We find that up to 10 % (but more likely around 1 %) of the members of the Sun's birth cluster could be still found within 100 pc from the Sun today.
Probabilities for Solar Siblings
Valtonen, M; Bobylev, V V; Myllari, A
2015-01-01
We have shown previously (Bobylev et al 2011) that some of the stars in the Solar neighborhood today may have originated in the same star cluster as the Sun, and could thus be called Solar Siblings. In this work we investigate the sensitivity of this result to Galactic models and to parameters of these models, and also extend the sample of orbits. There are a number of good candidates for the Sibling category, but due to the long period of orbit evolution since the break-up of the birth cluster of the Sun, one can only attach probabilities of membership. We find that up to 10% (but more likely around 1 %) of the members of the Sun's birth cluster could be still found within 100 pc from the Sun today.
Emptiness Formation Probability
Crawford, Nicholas; Ng, Stephen; Starr, Shannon
2016-08-01
We present rigorous upper and lower bounds on the emptiness formation probability for the ground state of a spin-1/2 Heisenberg XXZ quantum spin system. For a d-dimensional system we find a rate of decay of the order {exp(-c L^{d+1})} where L is the sidelength of the box in which we ask for the emptiness formation event to occur. In the {d=1} case this confirms previous predictions made in the integrable systems community, though our bounds do not achieve the precision predicted by Bethe ansatz calculations. On the other hand, our bounds in the case {d ≥ 2} are new. The main tools we use are reflection positivity and a rigorous path integral expansion, which is a variation on those previously introduced by Toth, Aizenman-Nachtergaele and Ueltschi.
Learning unbelievable marginal probabilities
Pitkow, Xaq; Miller, Ken D
2011-01-01
Loopy belief propagation performs approximate inference on graphical models with loops. One might hope to compensate for the approximation by adjusting model parameters. Learning algorithms for this purpose have been explored previously, and the claim has been made that every set of locally consistent marginals can arise from belief propagation run on a graphical model. On the contrary, here we show that many probability distributions have marginals that cannot be reached by belief propagation using any set of model parameters or any learning algorithm. We call such marginals `unbelievable.' This problem occurs whenever the Hessian of the Bethe free energy is not positive-definite at the target marginals. All learning algorithms for belief propagation necessarily fail in these cases, producing beliefs or sets of beliefs that may even be worse than the pre-learning approximation. We then show that averaging inaccurate beliefs, each obtained from belief propagation using model parameters perturbed about some le...
People's conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise).
Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul
2016-09-01
A common view in current psychology is that people estimate probabilities using various 'heuristics' or rules of thumb that do not follow the normative rules of probability theory. We present a model where people estimate conditional probabilities such as P(A|B) (the probability of A given that B has occurred) by a process that follows standard frequentist probability theory but is subject to random noise. This model accounts for various results from previous studies of conditional probability judgment. This model predicts that people's conditional probability judgments will agree with a series of fundamental identities in probability theory whose form cancels the effect of noise, while deviating from probability theory in other expressions whose form does not allow such cancellation. Two experiments strongly confirm these predictions, with people's estimates on average agreeing with probability theory for the noise-cancelling identities, but deviating from probability theory (in just the way predicted by the model) for other identities. This new model subsumes an earlier model of unconditional or 'direct' probability judgment which explains a number of systematic biases seen in direct probability judgment (Costello & Watts, 2014). This model may thus provide a fully general account of the mechanisms by which people estimate probabilities.
Savage s Concept of Probability
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
熊卫
2003-01-01
Starting with personal preference, Savage [3] constructs a foundation theory for probability from the qualitative probability to the quantitative probability and to utility. There are some profound logic connections between three steps in Savage's theory; that is, quantitative concepts properly represent qualitative concepts. Moreover, Savage's definition of subjective probability is in accordance with probability theory, and the theory gives us a rational decision model only if we assume that the weak ...
Probability Theory without Bayes' Rule
Rodriques, Samuel G.
2014-01-01
Within the Kolmogorov theory of probability, Bayes' rule allows one to perform statistical inference by relating conditional probabilities to unconditional probabilities. As we show here, however, there is a continuous set of alternative inference rules that yield the same results, and that may have computational or practical advantages for certain problems. We formulate generalized axioms for probability theory, according to which the reverse conditional probability distribution P(B|A) is no...
Assessing high wind energy penetration
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tande, J.O.
1995-01-01
In order to convincingly promote installing wind power capacity as a substantial part of the energy supply system, a set of careful analyses must be undertaken. This paper applies a case study concentrated on assessing the cost/benefit of high wind energy penetration. The case study considers...... expanding the grid connected wind power capacity in Praia, the capital of Cape Verde. The currently installed 1 MW of wind power is estimated to supply close to 10% of the electric energy consumption in 1996. Increasing the wind energy penetration to a higher level is considered viable as the project...... with the existing wind power, supply over 30% of the electric consumption in 1996. Applying the recommended practices for estimating the cost of wind energy, the life-cycle cost of this 2.4 MW investment is estimated at a 7% discount rate and a 20 year lifetime to 0.26 DKK/kW h....
Weld penetration and defect control
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chin, B.A.
1992-05-15
Highly engineered designs increasingly require the use of improved materials and sophisticated manufacturing techniques. To obtain optimal performance from these engineered products, improved weld properties and joint reliability are a necessarily. This requirement for improved weld performance and reliability has led to the development of high-performance welding systems in which pre-programmed parameters are specified before any welding takes place. These automated systems however lack the ability to compensate for perturbations which arise during the welding process. Hence the need for systems which monitor and control the in-process status of the welding process. This report discusses work carried out on weld penetration indicators and the feasibility of using these indicators for on-line penetration control.
IPMN penetration of the stomach.
Nakano, Masakazu; Tominaga, Keiichi; Watanabe, Hidetaka; Kanke, Kazunari; Tamano, Masaya; Hiraishi, Hideyuki
2010-01-01
An 83-year old Japanese man was transferred to our hospital due to a 1-week history of melena and signs of disordered awareness. Esophagogastroduodenoscopy showed a villous tumor associated with massive white mucous discharge in the posterior wall of the gastric corpus, where pathologically identified mucin-producing epithelium with nuclear atypia had developed into a papillary form. An abdominal enhanced computed tomography scan demonstrated communication between the dilated main pancreatic duct and the gastric lumen. Based on these findings, we reached a diagnosis of gastric penetration by an intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) of the main pancreatic duct. IPMN is partly characterized by expansive mucinous growth that may result in penetration into adjacent organs.
Penetration Testing in Wireless Networks
Lamichhane, Shree
2017-01-01
This thesis illustrates the security measures and mechanisms behind the encryption and decryption of data while transmitting data in a wireless network. Furthermore, this thesis describes and demonstrates several security threats in a wireless network that are widely experienced. It also explains shortly the evolution of the widely implemented IEEE 802.11 standard and its amendments. Kali Linux tools were used to perform a penetration test in a WPA secured test network. In-formation on th...
Transconjunctival penetration of mitomycin C
Velpandian T; Sihota Ramanjit; Sinha Ankur; Gupta Viney
2008-01-01
Aims: The study was performed to estimate transconjunctival penetration of mitomycin C (MMC) to Tenon′s tissue following application over the intact conjunctiva before routine trabeculectomy. Settings and Design: Institution-based case series. Materials and Methods: In 41 eyes of 41 patients, MMC (0.4 mg/ml for 3 min) was applied over the intact conjunctiva before beginning trabeculectomy. Tenon′s capsule directly beneath the site of application was excised during trabecule...
Cardiac Penetrating Injuries and Pseudoaneurysm
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
CHEN Shifeng
2002-01-01
Objective To discuss the early diagnosis and treatment of cardiac penetrating injuries and pseudoaneurysm. Methods 18 cases of cardiac penetrating injuries, in which 2 cases were complicated with pseudoaneurysm, were diagnosed by emergency operation and color Doppler echocardiography between May 1973 and Dec. 2001 in our hospital. The basis for emergency operation is the injured path locating in cardiac dangerous zone, severe shock or pericardial tamponade. ResultsAmong 18 cases of this study, 17 cases underwent emergency operation. During the operation, 11 cases were found injured in right ventricle, 2 cases were found injured in right atrium, 1 case was found injured in pulmonary artery,4 cases were found injured in left ventricle, 2 cases were found complicated with pseudoaneurysm. 17cases underwent cardiac repair including 1 case of rupture of aneurysm. 1 case underwent elective aneurysm resection. In whole group, 15 cases survived(83.33% ), 3 cases died( 16.67%). The cause of death is mainly hemorrhagic shock. Conclusion Highly suspicious cardiac penetrating injuries or hemopericaridium should undergo direct operative exploration. Pseudoaneurysm should be resected early,which can prevent severe complications.
Locating a buried earth penetrator
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Caffey, T.W.H.
1977-11-01
The purpose of this work was to assist the recovery of a buried earth penetrator by locating the vertical projection of the penetator upon the surface within a horizontal radius error of one meter. The penetrator will carry a small coil which is driven by an alternating current to form a magnetic dipole. Five measurements of the magnetic field vector upon the surface of the earth are shown to be sufficient for determining not only the xyz-coordinates of the dipole, but also the orientation of the dipole axis. The theory, computation process, and field tests are comprehensively described. Results of 26 field tests with the dipole at 9 different combinations of location and orientation are given. Average radial and vertical location errors are 0.27 m and -0.05 m, respectively, while the mean errors in the tilt and orientation angles of the dipole axis are 3 degrees and 8 degrees, respectively. The results are applied to the design of a locating system for a Pershing II penetrator which contains a recessed, rear-mounted coil.
Correlation Between Cone Penetration Rate And Measured Cone Penetration Parameters In Silty Soils
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Poulsen, Rikke; Nielsen, Benjaminn Nordahl; Ibsen, Lars Bo
2013-01-01
penetration tests with varying penetration rates conducted at a test site where the subsoil primary consists of sandy silt. It is shown how a reduced penetration rate influences the cone penetration measurements e.g. the cone resistance, pore pressure, and sleeve friction.......This paper shows, how a change in cone penetration rate affects the cone penetration measurements, hence the cone resistance, pore pressure, and sleeve friction in silty soil. The standard rate of penetration is 20 mm/s, and it is generally accepted that undrained penetration occurs in clay while...... drained penetration occurs in sand. When lowering the penetration rate, the soil pore water starts to dissipate and a change in the drainage condition is seen. In intermediate soils such as silty soils, the standard cone penetration rate may result in a drainage condition that could be undrained...
Ethical Dilemmas and Dimensions in Penetration Testing
Faily, Sharmal; McAlaney, John; Iacob, C
2015-01-01
Penetration testers are required to attack systems to evaluate their security, but without engaging in unethical behaviour while doing so. Despite work on hacker values and studies into security practice, there is little literature devoted to the ethical pressures associated with penetration testing. This paper presents several ethical dilemmas and dimensions associated with penetration testing;\\ud these shed light on the ethical positions taken by Penetration testers, and help identify poten...
The production process for water penetrated brick
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
SunGuofeng
2005-01-01
Waste penetrated brick, which is a green building material with good water penetration, high strength, lower firing temperature, lower production cost, good appearance and good structure, can holding ground water lever. This article analysis the production process and related factor for water penetrated brick:proper particle size distribution, proper shaping method, proper press and proper firing can ensure to produce good quality water penetrated brick.
Network Penetration Testing and Research
Murphy, Brandon F.
2013-01-01
This paper will focus the on research and testing done on penetrating a network for security purposes. This research will provide the IT security office new methods of attacks across and against a company's network as well as introduce them to new platforms and software that can be used to better assist with protecting against such attacks. Throughout this paper testing and research has been done on two different Linux based operating systems, for attacking and compromising a Windows based host computer. Backtrack 5 and BlackBuntu (Linux based penetration testing operating systems) are two different "attacker'' computers that will attempt to plant viruses and or NASA USRP - Internship Final Report exploits on a host Windows 7 operating system, as well as try to retrieve information from the host. On each Linux OS (Backtrack 5 and BlackBuntu) there is penetration testing software which provides the necessary tools to create exploits that can compromise a windows system as well as other operating systems. This paper will focus on two main methods of deploying exploits 1 onto a host computer in order to retrieve information from a compromised system. One method of deployment for an exploit that was tested is known as a "social engineering" exploit. This type of method requires interaction from unsuspecting user. With this user interaction, a deployed exploit may allow a malicious user to gain access to the unsuspecting user's computer as well as the network that such computer is connected to. Due to more advance security setting and antivirus protection and detection, this method is easily identified and defended against. The second method of exploit deployment is the method mainly focused upon within this paper. This method required extensive research on the best way to compromise a security enabled protected network. Once a network has been compromised, then any and all devices connected to such network has the potential to be compromised as well. With a compromised
Probability state modeling theory.
Bagwell, C Bruce; Hunsberger, Benjamin C; Herbert, Donald J; Munson, Mark E; Hill, Beth L; Bray, Chris M; Preffer, Frederic I
2015-07-01
As the technology of cytometry matures, there is mounting pressure to address two major issues with data analyses. The first issue is to develop new analysis methods for high-dimensional data that can directly reveal and quantify important characteristics associated with complex cellular biology. The other issue is to replace subjective and inaccurate gating with automated methods that objectively define subpopulations and account for population overlap due to measurement uncertainty. Probability state modeling (PSM) is a technique that addresses both of these issues. The theory and important algorithms associated with PSM are presented along with simple examples and general strategies for autonomous analyses. PSM is leveraged to better understand B-cell ontogeny in bone marrow in a companion Cytometry Part B manuscript. Three short relevant videos are available in the online supporting information for both of these papers. PSM avoids the dimensionality barrier normally associated with high-dimensionality modeling by using broadened quantile functions instead of frequency functions to represent the modulation of cellular epitopes as cells differentiate. Since modeling programs ultimately minimize or maximize one or more objective functions, they are particularly amenable to automation and, therefore, represent a viable alternative to subjective and inaccurate gating approaches.
Probability distributions for magnetotellurics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stodt, John A.
1982-11-01
Estimates of the magnetotelluric transfer functions can be viewed as ratios of two complex random variables. It is assumed that the numerator and denominator are governed approximately by a joint complex normal distribution. Under this assumption, probability distributions are obtained for the magnitude, squared magnitude, logarithm of the squared magnitude, and the phase of the estimates. Normal approximations to the distributions are obtained by calculating mean values and variances from error propagation, and the distributions are plotted with their normal approximations for different percentage errors in the numerator and denominator of the estimates, ranging from 10% to 75%. The distribution of the phase is approximated well by a normal distribution for the range of errors considered, while the distribution of the logarithm of the squared magnitude is approximated by a normal distribution for a much larger range of errors than is the distribution of the squared magnitude. The distribution of the squared magnitude is most sensitive to the presence of noise in the denominator of the estimate, in which case the true distribution deviates significantly from normal behavior as the percentage errors exceed 10%. In contrast, the normal approximation to the distribution of the logarithm of the magnitude is useful for errors as large as 75%.
RANDOM VARIABLE WITH FUZZY PROBABILITY
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
吕恩琳; 钟佑明
2003-01-01
Mathematic description about the second kind fuzzy random variable namely the random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability was studied. Based on the interval probability and using the fuzzy resolution theorem, the feasible condition about a probability fuzzy number set was given, go a step further the definition arid characters of random variable with fuzzy probability ( RVFP ) and the fuzzy distribution function and fuzzy probability distribution sequence of the RVFP were put forward. The fuzzy probability resolution theorem with the closing operation of fuzzy probability was given and proved. The definition and characters of mathematical expectation and variance of the RVFP were studied also. All mathematic description about the RVFP has the closing operation for fuzzy probability, as a result, the foundation of perfecting fuzzy probability operation method is laid.
7 CFR 2902.14 - Penetrating lubricants.
2010-01-01
... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Penetrating lubricants. 2902.14 Section 2902.14... Items § 2902.14 Penetrating lubricants. (a) Definition. Products formulated to provide light lubrication..., will give a procurement preference for qualifying biobased penetrating lubricants. By that...
Kali Linux wireless penetration testing essentials
Alamanni, Marco
2015-01-01
This book is targeted at information security professionals, penetration testers and network/system administrators who want to get started with wireless penetration testing. No prior experience with Kali Linux and wireless penetration testing is required, but familiarity with Linux and basic networking concepts is recommended.
Blanchard, M. B.; Oberbeck, V. R.; Bunch, T. E.; Reynolds, R. T.; Canning, T. N.; Jackson, R. W.
1976-01-01
The feasibility of employing penetrators for exploring Mars was examined. Eight areas of interest for key scientific experiments were identified. These include: seismic activity, imaging, geochemistry, water measurement, heatflow, meteorology, magnetometry, and biochemistry. In seven of the eight potential experiment categories this year's progress included: conceptual design, instrument fabrication, instrument performance evaluation, and shock loading of important components. Most of the components survived deceleration testing with negligible performance changes. Components intended to be placed inside the penetrator forebody were tested up to 3,500 g and components intended to be placed on the afterbody were tested up to 21,000 g. A field test program was conducted using tentative Mars penetrator mission constraints. Drop tests were performed at two selected terrestrial analog sites to determine the range of penetration depths for anticipated common Martian materials. Minimum penetration occurred in basalt at Amboy, California. Three full-scale penetrators penetrated 0.4 to 0.9 m into the basalt after passing through 0.3 to 0.5 m of alluvial overburden. Maximum penetration occurred in unconsolidated sediments at McCook, Nebraska. Two full-scale penetrators penetrated 2.5 to 8.5 m of sediment. Impact occurred in two kinds of sediment: loess and layered clay. Deceleration g loads of nominally 2,000 for the forebody and 20,000 for the afterbody did not present serious design problems for potential experiments. Penetrators have successfully impacted into terrestrial analogs of the probable extremes of potential Martian sites.
FAA Fluorescent Penetrant Activities - An Update
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Moore, D.G.
1998-10-20
The Federal Aviation Administration's Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) is currently characterizing low cycle fatigue specimens that will support the needs of penetrant manufacturers, commercial airline industry and the Federal Aviation Administration. The main focus of this characterization is to maintain and enhance the evaluation of penetrant inspection materials and apply resources to support the aircraft community needs. This paper discusses efforts to-date to document the Wright Laboratory penetrant evaluation process and characterize penetrant brightness readings in the initial set of sample calibration panels using Type 1 penetrant.
Web penetration testing with Kali Linux
Muniz, Joseph
2013-01-01
Web Penetration Testing with Kali Linux contains various penetration testing methods using BackTrack that will be used by the reader. It contains clear step-by-step instructions with lot of screenshots. It is written in an easy to understand language which will further simplify the understanding for the user.""Web Penetration Testing with Kali Linux"" is ideal for anyone who is interested in learning how to become a penetration tester. It will also help the users who are new to Kali Linux and want to learn the features and differences in Kali versus Backtrack, and seasoned penetration testers
Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith
2013-01-01
Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.
Introduction to probability with R
Baclawski, Kenneth
2008-01-01
FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable
Penetration testing with Raspberry Pi
Muniz, Joseph
2015-01-01
If you are looking for a low budget, small form-factor remotely accessible hacking tool, then the concepts in this book are ideal for you. If you are a penetration tester who wants to save on travel costs by placing a low-cost node on a target network, you will save thousands by using the methods covered in this book. You do not have to be a skilled hacker or programmer to use this book. It will be beneficial to have some networking experience; however, it is not required to follow the concepts covered in this book.
Ross, Sheldon
2014-01-01
A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.
Conditionals, probability, and belief revision
Voorbraak, F.
1989-01-01
A famous result obtained in the mid-seventies by David Lewis shows that a straightforward interpretation of probabilities of conditionals as conditional probabilities runs into serious trouble. In this paper we try to circumvent this trouble by defining extensions of probability functions, called
Skin penetration enhancement by a microneedle device (Dermaroller) in vitro
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Badran, M M; Kuntsche, Judith; Fahr, A
2009-01-01
This study focused on the in vitro evaluation of skin perforation using a new microneedle device (Dermaroller) with different needle lengths (150, 500 and 1500 microm). The influence of the microneedle treatment on the morphology of the skin surface (studied by light and scanning electron...... compared with an aqueous solution. Elevated TEWL values were measured after Dermaroller treatment compared to untreated human skin with a gradual increase of the TEWL over the first hour whereas afterwards the TEWL values decreased probably caused by a reduction of the pore size with time. Skin perforation...... microscopy), on the transepidermal water loss (TEWL) and on the penetration and permeation of hydrophilic model drugs was investigated using excised human full-thickness skin. Furthermore, invasomes - highly flexible phospholipid vesicles containing terpenes and ethanol as penetration enhancer - were...
Singh, Surendra; Kinney, Andy; Hogan, Robert; Guerra, Rene
2012-05-01
The detection of large flaws in a structure (greater than critical flaw size, >aNDE) plays an important role in probabilistic design and life management of parts. Therefore, development of reliable and capable NDT methods for detecting flaws is essential element of any life prediction system. Traditionally, the reliability and capability of NDT methods has been is studied by determining POD data in terms of a90, a90/95, and Confidence Interval (CI). However, POD data and CI are frequently reported but not necessarily well understood by NDT practionars, design, and life prediction engineers. More importantly, the use of samples statistical uncertainties for system (and/or process) variability adds further confusion. In this paper, we describe Minitab advanced statistical tools as an alternative to POD for studying FPI system reliability and capability in terms total observed system variability. The total observed system variability includes measurement errors (includes statistical uncertainty), variations due to operators and inspection processes as well and is calculated by studying Measurement System Evaluation (MSE).
The Art of Probability Assignment
Dimitrov, Vesselin I
2012-01-01
The problem of assigning probabilities when little is known is analized in the case where the quanities of interest are physical observables, i.e. can be measured and their values expressed by numbers. It is pointed out that the assignment of probabilities based on observation is a process of inference, involving the use of Bayes' theorem and the choice of a probability prior. When a lot of data is available, the resulting probability are remarkable insensitive to the form of the prior. In the oposite case of scarse data, it is suggested that the probabilities are assigned such that they are the least sensitive to specific variations of the probability prior. In the continuous case this results in a probability assignment rule wich calls for minimizing the Fisher information subject to constraints reflecting all available information. In the discrete case, the corresponding quantity to be minimized turns out to be a Renyi distance between the original and the shifted distribution.
Probability workshop to be better in probability topic
Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed
2015-02-01
The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.
Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory
Ballentine, Leslie E.
2016-08-01
Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.
Are high penetrations of commercial cogeneration good for society?
Keen, Jeremy F.; Apt, Jay
2016-12-01
Low natural gas prices, market reports and evidence from New York State suggest that the number of commercial combined heat and power (CHP) installations in the United States will increase by 2%-9% annually over the next decade. We investigate how increasing commercial CHP penetrations may affect net emissions, the distribution network, and total system energy costs. We constructed an integrated planning and operations model that maximizes owner profit through sizing and operation of CHP on a realistic distribution feeder in New York. We find that a greater penetration of CHP reduces both total system energy costs and network congestion. Commercial buildings often have low and inconsistent heat loads, which can cause low fuel utilization efficiencies, low CHP rates-of-return and diminishing avoided emissions as CHP penetration increases. In the northeast, without policy intervention, a 5% penetration of small commercially owned CHP would increase CO2 emissions by 2% relative to the bulk power grid. Low emission CHP installations can be encouraged with incentives that promote CHP operation only during times of high heat loads. Time-varying rates, such as time-of-day and seasonal rates, are one option and were shown to reduce customer emissions without reducing profits. In contrast, natural gas rate discounts, a common incentive for industrial CHP in some states, can encourage CHP operation during low heat loads and thus increase emissions.
Seismic Ground Motion Hazards with 10 Percent Probability
Department of Homeland Security — This map layer shows seismic hazard in the United States. The data represent a model showing the probability that ground motion will reach a certain level. This map...
Seismic Ground Motion Hazards with 2 Percent Probability
Department of Homeland Security — This map layer shows seismic hazard in the United States. The data represent a model showing the probability that ground motion will reach a certain level. This map...
Ethical hacking and penetration testing guide
Baloch, Rafay
2014-01-01
Requiring no prior hacking experience, Ethical Hacking and Penetration Testing Guide supplies a complete introduction to the steps required to complete a penetration test, or ethical hack, from beginning to end. You will learn how to properly utilize and interpret the results of modern-day hacking tools, which are required to complete a penetration test. The book covers a wide range of tools, including Backtrack Linux, Google reconnaissance, MetaGooFil, dig, Nmap, Nessus, Metasploit, Fast Track Autopwn, Netcat, and Hacker Defender rootkit. Supplying a simple and clean explanation of how to effectively utilize these tools, it details a four-step methodology for conducting an effective penetration test or hack.Providing an accessible introduction to penetration testing and hacking, the book supplies you with a fundamental understanding of offensive security. After completing the book you will be prepared to take on in-depth and advanced topics in hacking and penetration testing. The book walks you through each ...
Cable Braid Electromagnetic Penetration Model.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Warne, Larry K. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Langston, William L. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Basilio, Lorena I. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, W. A. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-06-01
The model for penetration of a wire braid is rigorously formulated. Integral formulas are developed from energy principles and reciprocity for both self and transfer immittances in terms of potentials for the fields. The detailed boundary value problem for the wire braid is also setup in a very efficient manner; the braid wires act as sources for the potentials in the form of a sequence of line multipoles with unknown coefficients that are determined by means of conditions arising from the wire surface boundary conditions. Approximations are introduced to relate the local properties of the braid wires to a simplified infinite periodic planar geometry. This is used in a simplified application of reciprocity to be able to treat nonuniform coaxial geometries including eccentric interior coaxial arrangements and an exterior ground plane.
Zuo, Zhili; Kuehn, Thomas H; Pui, David Y H
2015-07-01
Viability, fluorescence (particle volume), photometric, viral RNA, and particle number penetration of MS2 bacteriophage through filter media used in three different models of respirators were compared to better understand the correlation between viability and physical penetration. Although viability and viral RNA penetration were better represented by particle volume penetration than particle number penetration, they were several-fold lower than photometric penetration, which was partially due to the difference in virus survival between upstream and downstream aerosol samples. Results suggest that the current NIOSH photometer-based test method can be used as a quick means to roughly differentiate respirators with different performance against virus aerosols.
Hidden Variables or Positive Probabilities?
Rothman, T; Rothman, Tony
2001-01-01
Despite claims that Bell's inequalities are based on the Einstein locality condition, or equivalent, all derivations make an identical mathematical assumption: that local hidden-variable theories produce a set of positive-definite probabilities for detecting a particle with a given spin orientation. The standard argument is that because quantum mechanics assumes that particles are emitted in a superposition of states the theory cannot produce such a set of probabilities. We examine a paper by Eberhard who claims to show that a generalized Bell inequality, the CHSH inequality, can be derived solely on the basis of the locality condition, without recourse to hidden variables. We point out that he nonetheless assumes a set of positive-definite probabilities, which supports the claim that hidden variables or "locality" is not at issue here, positive-definite probabilities are. We demonstrate that quantum mechanics does predict a set of probabilities that violate the CHSH inequality; however these probabilities ar...
Applied probability and stochastic processes
Sumita, Ushio
1999-01-01
Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...
Bodily action penetrates affective perception
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlo Fantoni
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Fantoni & Gerbino (2014 showed that subtle postural shifts associated with reaching can have a strong hedonic impact and affect how actors experience facial expressions of emotion. Using a novel Motor Action Mood Induction Procedure (MAMIP, they found consistent congruency effects in participants who performed a facial emotion identification task after a sequence of visually-guided reaches: a face perceived as neutral in a baseline condition appeared slightly happy after comfortable actions and slightly angry after uncomfortable actions. However, skeptics about the penetrability of perception (Zeimbekis & Raftopoulos, 2015 would consider such evidence insufficient to demonstrate that observer’s internal states induced by action comfort/discomfort affect perception in a top-down fashion. The action-modulated mood might have produced a back-end memory effect capable of affecting post-perceptual and decision processing, but not front-end perception. Here, we present evidence that performing a facial emotion detection (not identification task after MAMIP exhibits systematic mood-congruent sensitivity changes, rather than response bias changes attributable to cognitive set shifts; i.e., we show that observer’s internal states induced by bodily action can modulate affective perception. The detection threshold for happiness was lower after fifty comfortable than uncomfortable reaches; while the detection threshold for anger was lower after fifty uncomfortable than comfortable reaches. Action valence induced an overall sensitivity improvement in detecting subtle variations of congruent facial expressions (happiness after positive comfortable actions, anger after negative uncomfortable actions, in the absence of significant response bias shifts. Notably, both comfortable and uncomfortable reaches impact sensitivity in an approximately symmetric way relative to a baseline inaction condition. All of these constitute compelling evidence of a genuine top
Mechanism of Long-Range Penetration of Low-Energy Ions in Botanic Samples
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
刘峰; 王宇钢; 薛建明; 王思学; 杜广华; 颜莎; 赵渭江
2002-01-01
We present experimental evidence to reveal the mechanism of long-range penetration of low-energy ions in botanic samples. In the 100keV Ar+ ion transmission measurement, the result confirmed that low-energy ions could penetrate at least 60μm thick kidney bean slices with the probability of about 1.0 × 10-5. The energy spectrum of 1 MeV He+ ions penetrating botanic samples has shown that there is a peak of the count of ions with little energy loss. The probability of the low-energy ions penetrating the botanic sample is almost the same as that of the high-energy ions penetrating the same samples with little energy loss. The results indicate that there are some micro-regions with mass thickness less than the projectile range of low-energy ions in the botanic samples and they result in the long-range penetration of low-energy ions in botanic samples.
A Multiple Scattering Theory for Proton Penetration
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
YANG Dai-Lun; WU Zhang-Wen; JIANG Steve-Bin; LUO Zheng-Ming
2004-01-01
@@ We extend the electron small-angle multiple scattering theory to proton penetration. After introducing the concept of narrow energy spectra, the proton energy loss process is included in the proton deep penetration theory. It precisely describes the whole process of proton penetration. Compared to the Monte Carlo method,this method maintains the comparable precision and possesses much higher computational efficiency. Thus, it shows the real feasibility of applying this algorithm to proton clinical radiation therapy.
Sawosz, P; Kacprzak, M; Weigl, W; Borowska-Solonynko, A; Krajewski, P; Zolek, N; Ciszek, B; Maniewski, R; Liebert, A
2012-12-07
A time-gated intensified CCD camera was applied for time-resolved imaging of light penetrating in an optically turbid medium. Spatial distributions of light penetration probability in the plane perpendicular to the axes of the source and the detector were determined at different source positions. Furthermore, visiting probability profiles of diffuse reflectance measurement were obtained by the convolution of the light penetration distributions recorded at different source positions. Experiments were carried out on homogeneous phantoms, more realistic two-layered tissue phantoms based on the human skull filled with Intralipid-ink solution and on cadavers. It was noted that the photons visiting probability profiles depend strongly on the source-detector separation, the delay between the laser pulse and the photons collection window and the complex tissue composition of the human head.
PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...
PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...
In-place HEPA filter penetration test
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bergman, W.; Wilson, K.; Elliott, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)] [and others
1997-08-01
We have demonstrated the feasibility of conducting penetration tests on high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters as installed in nuclear ventilation systems. The in-place penetration test, which is designed to yield equivalent penetration measurements as the standard DOP efficiency test, is based on measuring the aerosol penetration of the filter installation as a function of particle size using a portable laser particle counter. This in-place penetration test is compared to the current in-place leak test using light scattering photometers for single HEPA filter installations and for HEPA filter plenums using the shroud method. Test results show the in-place penetration test is more sensitive than the in-place leak test, has a similar operating procedure, but takes longer to conduct. Additional tests are required to confirm that the in-place penetration test yields identical results as the standard dioctyl phthalate (DOP) penetration test for HEPA filters with controlled leaks in the filter and gasket and duct by-pass leaks. Further development of the procedure is also required to reduce the test time before the in-place penetration test is practical. 14 refs., 14 figs., 3 tabs.
Foliage penetration optimization for Geiger-mode avalanche photodiode lidar
Johnson, Steven E.
2013-05-01
Geiger-mode avalanche photodiode (GMAPD) Lidar systems can be used to image targets that are partially concealed by foliage. This application of GMAPD Lidar is challenging because most APDs operating in Geiger- mode report only one range measurement per transmitted laser pulse. If a GMAPD makes a foliage range measurement, it cannot make a range measurement to a target concealed by the foliage. When too much laser energy is received, the vast majority of range measurements are from the foliage and only a small percentage are from the target. Some GMAPD Lidar systems can report their average detection probability during operation. The average detection probability, which is often called "P-det", is calculated over an array of GMAPDs, over multiple laser pulses, or over both. However, the detection probability does not distinguish between target range measurements, foliage range measurements, and noise events. In this paper, it is shown that when certain collection parameters are known, that the probability of detecting a target obscured by foliage can be maximized by selecting the appropriate "P-det". It is also shown that for a typical foliage penetration scenario where most of the reflected laser energy is from the foliage that operating with a "P-det" between 65% and 80% produces a near-maximum target detection probability.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N. A. Fedorova
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The article presents the calculation-and-theory-based research results to examine the possibility for using the jet thrust impulse to increase a penetration depth of high-velocity penetrator modules. Such devices can be used for studies of Earth surface layer composition, and in the nearest future for other Solar system bodies too. Research equipment (sensors and different instruments is housed inside a metal body of the penetrator with a sharpened nose that decreases drag force in soil. It was assumed, that this penetrator is additionally equipped with the pulse jet engine, which is fired at a certain stage of penetrator motion into target.The penetrator is considered as a rigid body of variable mass, which is subjected to drag force and reactive force applied at the moment the engine fires. A drag force was represented with a binomial empirical law, and penetrator nose part was considered to be conical. The jet thrust force was supposed to be constant during its application time. It was in accordance with assumption that mass flow and flow rate of solid propellant combustion products were constant. The amount of propellant in the penetrator was characterized by Tsiolkovsky number Z, which specifies the ratio between the fuel mass and the penetrator structure mass with no fuel.The system of equations to describe the penetrator dynamics was given in dimensionless form using the values aligned with penetration of an equivalent inert penetrator as the time and penetration depth scales. Penetration dynamics of penetrator represented in this form allowed to eliminate the influence of penetrator initial mass and its cross-section diameter on the solution results. The lack of such dependency is convenient for comparing the calculation results since they hold for penetrators of various initial masses and cross-sections.To calculate the penetration a lunar regolith was taken as a soil material. Calculations were carried out for initial velocities of
Understanding Students' Beliefs about Probability.
Konold, Clifford
The concept of probability is not an easy concept for high school and college students to understand. This paper identifies and analyzes the students' alternative frameworks from the viewpoint of constructivism. There are various interpretations of probability through mathematical history: classical, frequentist, and subjectivist interpretation.…
Expected utility with lower probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte
1994-01-01
An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...
Varieties of Belief and Probability
D.J.N. van Eijck (Jan); S. Ghosh; J. Szymanik
2015-01-01
htmlabstractFor reasoning about uncertain situations, we have probability theory, and we have logics of knowledge and belief. How does elementary probability theory relate to epistemic logic and the logic of belief? The paper focuses on the notion of betting belief, and interprets a language for
Landau-Zener Probability Reviewed
Valencia, C
2008-01-01
We examine the survival probability for neutrino propagation through matter with variable density. We present a new method to calculate the level-crossing probability that differs from Landau's method by constant factor, which is relevant in the interpretation of neutrino flux from supernova explosion.
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...
A graduate course in probability
Tucker, Howard G
2014-01-01
Suitable for a graduate course in analytic probability, this text requires only a limited background in real analysis. Topics include probability spaces and distributions, stochastic independence, basic limiting options, strong limit theorems for independent random variables, central limit theorem, conditional expectation and Martingale theory, and an introduction to stochastic processes.
A radioisotope powered cryobot for penetrating the Europan ice shell
Zimmerman, Wayne; Bryant, Scott; Zitzelberger, John; Nesmith, Bill
2001-02-01
The Cryobot team at JPL has been working on the design of a Cryo-Hydro Integrated Robotic Penetrator System (CHIRPS), which can be used to penetrate the Mars North Polar Cap or the thick sheet ice surrounding Jupiter's moon, Europa. The science for either one of these missions is compelling. For both Mars and Europa the major scientific interest is to reach regions where there is a reservoir of water that may yield signs of past or extant life. Additionally, a Mars polar cap penetration would help us understand both climatic and depositional histories for perhaps as far back as 20 million years. Similarly, penetration of the Europa ice sheet would allow scientists to unravel the mysteries surrounding the thick ice crust, its chemical composition, and subsurface ocean properties. Extreme mass and power constraints make deep drilling/coring impractical. The best way to explore either one of these environments is a cryobot mole penetrator vehicle, which carries a suite of instruments suitable for sampling and analyzing the ice or ocean environments. This paper concentrates on a Europa deep ice (i.e., kilometers thick) application of the CHIRPS, and introduces the reader to the vehicle design with focus on the use of radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) technology as the primary heat (1 kW total) and power source for the robotic vehicle. Radioisotope heater unit (RHU) milli-watt power systems (120 mW total) are also employed to power the mini-radiowave ice transceivers, which are used to relay data through the ice up to the surface lander. The results of modeling and design work for both of these areas are discussed in this paper. Although radioisotope power is baselined for the Europa flight version of the cyrobot, no decision on the final design of the cryobot will be made until the environmental review process is complete. Any use of the cryobot for Mars or Europa will conform to all environmental and planetary protection requirements. .
Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs.
MacDonald, Jacqueline Anne; Small, Mitchell J; Morgan, M G
2008-08-01
This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15-140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution-suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies
Invariant probabilities of transition functions
Zaharopol, Radu
2014-01-01
The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...
Linear Positivity and Virtual Probability
Hartle, J B
2004-01-01
We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. A quantum theory of closed systems requires two elements; 1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory, and 2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time-neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to i...
Survival probability and ruin probability of a risk model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LUO Jian-hua
2008-01-01
In this paper, a new risk model is studied in which the rate of premium income is regarded as a random variable, the arrival of insurance policies is a Poisson process and the process of claim occurring is p-thinning process. The integral representations of the survival probability are gotten. The explicit formula of the survival probability on the infinite interval is obtained in the special casc--exponential distribution.The Lundberg inequality and the common formula of the ruin probability are gotten in terms of some techniques from martingale theory.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Saifur RAHMAN; Manisa PIPATTANASOMPORN
2011-01-01
At the end of 2010,the United States had the second highest installed wind power capacity in the world after China.With supportive policies and considerable wind resources,some have predicted that the United States could supply 40% of its electric energy from wind in the foreseeable future.This paper presents challenges of large-scale wind power penetration,focusing on its operating impacts on power systems in the context of the United States.It demonstrates that key challenges come from variability in wind power output,which translates into variability in the net load（load minus wind generation）.The paper then presents various grid-scale storage options that are already in practice or in demonstration to mitigate the adverse impacts of wind power on the electric power grid.The impact of grid-scale storage on the power plants＇ utilization factors is also discussed.%至2010年底,美国的风电装机容量仅次于中国,居世界第二。考虑政府的支持政策和可观的风资源储量,有专家预见,未来美国40%的电能可来自于风力发电。在详细分析大规模风电接入对美国电力系统运行产生的影响的基础上,文中提出了需应对的几个方面的挑战。分析结果显示,最关键的挑战来自于风电功率的波动特性,可将其转化为系统负荷减去风电出力后的净负荷波动特性。随后文章提出了已被实际应用或正在工程示范的几种电网级储能方式来平抑风电接入给电网带来的负面影响。文中也对电网级储能方式对传统发电厂利用因子的影响加以讨论。
Economic Operation of Power Systems with Significant Wind Power Penetration
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa
This dissertation addresses economic operation of power systems with high penetration of wind power. Several studies are presented to address the economic operation of power systems with high penetration of variable wind power. The main concern in such power systems is high variability...... level should be economic and can be a provided by different tools such as developing new reserve scheduling techniques, demand response, using storage units, facilitating the capacity of cross-border interconnections and so on. These subjects are addressed in this PhD dissertation. In the first study...... (and thus power system security is enhanced). The optimal charging scheme of Eclectic Vehicles (EVs) in a distribution feeder is then studied considering the proposed pricing scheme. A formulation is then proposed for optimal reserve scheduling considering the role of reserve provision scenarios from...
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2005-01-01
People much given to gambling usually manage to work out rough-and-ready ways of measuring the likelihood of certain situations so as to know which way to bet their money, and how much. If they did not do this., they would quickly lose all their money to those who did.
Penetrating Moral Education in English Teaching
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
汪中跃
2015-01-01
Middle school students’ moral education is not ful y implemented or even ignored in the present English teaching,so in this paper,the importance of penetrating the cultivation of middle school students’ moral education in English teaching is analyzed,the strategies of penetrating moral education are discussed and the significance is also pointed out.
Quantitative penetration testing with item response theory
Arnold, Florian; Pieters, Wolter; Stoelinga, Mariëlle
2014-01-01
Existing penetration testing approaches assess the vulnerability of a system by determining whether certain attack paths are possible in practice. Thus, penetration testing has so far been used as a qualitative research method. To enable quantitative approaches to security risk management, including
Quantitative penetration testing with item response theory
Pieters, W.; Arnold, F.; Stoelinga, M.I.A.
2013-01-01
Existing penetration testing approaches assess the vulnerability of a system by determining whether certain attack paths are possible in practice. Therefore, penetration testing has thus far been used as a qualitative research method. To enable quantitative approaches to security risk management, in
Quantitative penetration testing with item response theory
Arnold, Florian; Pieters, Wolter; Stoelinga, Mariëlle
2013-01-01
Existing penetration testing approaches assess the vulnerability of a system by determining whether certain attack paths are possible in practice. Thus, penetration testing has so far been used as a qualitative research method. To enable quantitative approaches to security risk management, including
Endoscopic biopsy: Duodenal ulcer penetrating into liver
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Baybora Kircali; Tülay Saricam; Aysegul Ozakyol; Eser Vardareli
2005-01-01
@@ TO THE EDITOR We have read with interest the recent report by E Kayacetin and S Kayacetin of Gastric ulcer penetrating to liver diagnosed by endoscopic biopsy[1] since we diagnosed the duodenal ulcer which penetrated into liver similarly. This is a rather unusual case because of the fifth case in the literature and responding to medical therapy.
Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.
Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A
2011-05-01
In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.
Probability with applications and R
Dobrow, Robert P
2013-01-01
An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c
Probability Ranking in Vector Spaces
Melucci, Massimo
2011-01-01
The Probability Ranking Principle states that the document set with the highest values of probability of relevance optimizes information retrieval effectiveness given the probabilities are estimated as accurately as possible. The key point of the principle is the separation of the document set into two subsets with a given level of fallout and with the highest recall. The paper introduces the separation between two vector subspaces and shows that the separation yields a more effective performance than the optimal separation into subsets with the same available evidence, the performance being measured with recall and fallout. The result is proved mathematically and exemplified experimentally.
Holographic probabilities in eternal inflation.
Bousso, Raphael
2006-11-10
In the global description of eternal inflation, probabilities for vacua are notoriously ambiguous. The local point of view is preferred by holography and naturally picks out a simple probability measure. It is insensitive to large expansion factors or lifetimes and so resolves a recently noted paradox. Any cosmological measure must be complemented with the probability for observers to emerge in a given vacuum. In lieu of anthropic criteria, I propose to estimate this by the entropy that can be produced in a local patch. This allows for prior-free predictions.
Local Causality, Probability and Explanation
Healey, Richard A
2016-01-01
In papers published in the 25 years following his famous 1964 proof John Bell refined and reformulated his views on locality and causality. Although his formulations of local causality were in terms of probability, he had little to say about that notion. But assumptions about probability are implicit in his arguments and conclusions. Probability does not conform to these assumptions when quantum mechanics is applied to account for the particular correlations Bell argues are locally inexplicable. This account involves no superluminal action and there is even a sense in which it is local, but it is in tension with the requirement that the direct causes and effects of events are nearby.
A philosophical essay on probabilities
Laplace, Marquis de
1996-01-01
A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application
Diurnal distribution of sunshine probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aydinli, S.
1982-01-01
The diurnal distribution of the sunshine probability is essential for the predetermination of average irradiances and illuminances by solar radiation on sloping surfaces. The most meteorological stations have only monthly average values of the sunshine duration available. It is, therefore, necessary to compute the diurnal distribution of sunshine probability starting from the average monthly values. It is shown how the symmetric component of the distribution of the sunshine probability which is a consequence of a ''sidescene effect'' of the clouds can be calculated. The asymmetric components of the sunshine probability depending on the location and the seasons and their influence on the predetermination of the global radiation are investigated and discussed.
Probability representation of classical states
Man'ko, OV; Man'ko, [No Value; Pilyavets, OV
2005-01-01
Probability representation of classical states described by symplectic tomograms is discussed. Tomographic symbols of classical observables which are functions on phase-space are studied. Explicit form of kernel of commutative star-product of the tomographic symbols is obtained.
Introduction to probability and measure
Parthasarathy, K R
2005-01-01
According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.
Free probability and random matrices
Mingo, James A
2017-01-01
This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.
The probabilities of unique events.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sangeet S Khemlani
Full Text Available Many theorists argue that the probabilities of unique events, even real possibilities such as President Obama's re-election, are meaningless. As a consequence, psychologists have seldom investigated them. We propose a new theory (implemented in a computer program in which such estimates depend on an intuitive non-numerical system capable only of simple procedures, and a deliberative system that maps intuitions into numbers. The theory predicts that estimates of the probabilities of conjunctions should often tend to split the difference between the probabilities of the two conjuncts. We report two experiments showing that individuals commit such violations of the probability calculus, and corroborating other predictions of the theory, e.g., individuals err in the same way even when they make non-numerical verbal estimates, such as that an event is highly improbable.
Logic, probability, and human reasoning.
Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P
2015-04-01
This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction.
Transconjunctival penetration of mitomycin C
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Velpandian T
2008-01-01
Full Text Available Aims: The study was performed to estimate transconjunctival penetration of mitomycin C (MMC to Tenon′s tissue following application over the intact conjunctiva before routine trabeculectomy. Settings and Design: Institution-based case series. Materials and Methods: In 41 eyes of 41 patients, MMC (0.4 mg/ml for 3 min was applied over the intact conjunctiva before beginning trabeculectomy. Tenon′s capsule directly beneath the site of application was excised during trabeculectomy and was homogenized, centrifuged and MMC concentrations were analyzed using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC. Statistical Analysis Used: Statistical analysis was performed using stata0 8.0 version software (STATA Corporation, Houston, TX, USA. In this study, P -values less than 0.05 were considered as statistically significant. Results: The average weight of the sample of Tenon′s tissue excised was 5.51 ± 4.42 mg (range: 0.9-17.1 and the average estimated MMC concentration found to be present in Tenon′s tissue using HPLC was 18.67 ± 32.36 x 10−6 moles/kg of the tissue (range: 0.38-197.05 x 10−6 . In 36 of the 41 patients (87.80%, the MMC concentration reached above 2 x 10−6 moles/kg of the tissue concentration required to inhibit human conjunctival fibroblasts. Conclusions: Mitomycin C does permeate into the subconjunctival tissue after supraconjunctival application for 3 min. Application of MMC over the conjunctiva may be a useful alternative to subconjunctival or subscleral application during routine trabeculectomy and as an adjunct for failing blebs.
Default probabilities and default correlations
Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans
2001-01-01
Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...
Joint probabilities and quantum cognition
de Barros, J Acacio
2012-01-01
In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantum-like response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.
Three lectures on free probability
2012-01-01
These are notes from a three-lecture mini-course on free probability given at MSRI in the Fall of 2010 and repeated a year later at Harvard. The lectures were aimed at mathematicians and mathematical physicists working in combinatorics, probability, and random matrix theory. The first lecture was a staged rediscovery of free independence from first principles, the second dealt with the additive calculus of free random variables, and the third focused on random matrix models.
Numerical Modelling of Ground Penetrating Radar Antennas
Giannakis, Iraklis; Giannopoulos, Antonios; Pajewski, Lara
2014-05-01
Numerical methods are needed in order to solve Maxwell's equations in complicated and realistic problems. Over the years a number of numerical methods have been developed to do so. Amongst them the most popular are the finite element, finite difference implicit techniques, frequency domain solution of Helmontz equation, the method of moments, transmission line matrix method. However, the finite-difference time-domain method (FDTD) is considered to be one of the most attractive choice basically because of its simplicity, speed and accuracy. FDTD first introduced in 1966 by Kane Yee. Since then, FDTD has been established and developed to be a very rigorous and well defined numerical method for solving Maxwell's equations. The order characteristics, accuracy and limitations are rigorously and mathematically defined. This makes FDTD reliable and easy to use. Numerical modelling of Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) is a very useful tool which can be used in order to give us insight into the scattering mechanisms and can also be used as an alternative approach to aid data interpretation. Numerical modelling has been used in a wide range of GPR applications including archeology, geophysics, forensic, landmine detection etc. In engineering, some applications of numerical modelling include the estimation of the effectiveness of GPR to detect voids in bridges, to detect metal bars in concrete, to estimate shielding effectiveness etc. The main challenges in numerical modelling of GPR for engineering applications are A) the implementation of the dielectric properties of the media (soils, concrete etc.) in a realistic way, B) the implementation of the geometry of the media (soils inhomogeneities, rough surface, vegetation, concrete features like fractures and rock fragments etc.) and C) the detailed modelling of the antenna units. The main focus of this work (which is part of the COST Action TU1208) is the accurate and realistic implementation of GPR antenna units into the FDTD
Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference
Dworsky, Lawrence N
2008-01-01
An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...
Sphere impact and penetration into wet sand
Marston, J. O.; Vakarelski, I. U.; Thoroddsen, S. T.
2012-08-01
We present experimental results for the penetration of a solid sphere when released onto wet sand. We show, by measuring the final penetration depth, that the cohesion induced by the water can result in either a deeper or shallower penetration for a given release height compared to dry granular material. Thus the presence of water can either lubricate or stiffen the granular material. By assuming the shear rate is proportional to the impact velocity and using the depth-averaged stopping force in calculating the shear stress, we derive effective viscosities for the wet granular materials.
Earthquakes induced by deep penetrating bombing?
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Serguei Yu. Balassanian
2005-01-01
The data of M≥5 earthquakes occurred in one year before and after 4 deep penetrating bombs in the region within 500 km and 1 000 km from the shooting site are presented. The 4 bombs are those happened in 1999 Kosovo of Yugoslavia, the 1991 Baghdad of Iraq, the 2001 Tora Bora of Afghanistan, and the 2003 Kirkuk of Iraq, respectively. The data indicate that the deep penetrating bombs may have remotely triggered some earthquakes. The deep penetrating bombs in seismically active regions should be forbidden.
Percutaneous penetration studies for risk assessment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sartorelli, Vittorio; Andersen, Helle Raun; Angerer, Jürgen
2000-01-01
. In order to predict the systemic risk of dermally absorbed chemicals and to enable agencies to set safety standards, data is needed on the rates of percutaneous penetration of important chemicals. Standardization of in vitro tests and comparison of their results with the in vivo data could produce...... of percutaneous penetration. This paper is an outcome of the meetings of the Percutaneous Penetration Subgroup and reports the presentations on the key issues identified throughout the 3-year duration of the Dermal Exposure Network (1997-1999)....
Sphere impact and penetration into wet sand
Marston, J. O.
2012-08-07
We present experimental results for the penetration of a solid sphere when released onto wet sand. We show, by measuring the final penetration depth, that the cohesion induced by the water can result in either a deeper or shallower penetration for a given release height compared to dry granular material. Thus the presence of water can either lubricate or stiffen the granular material. By assuming the shear rate is proportional to the impact velocity and using the depth-averaged stopping force in calculating the shear stress, we derive effective viscosities for the wet granular materials.
System-wide emissions implications of increased wind power penetration.
Valentino, Lauren; Valenzuela, Viviana; Botterud, Audun; Zhou, Zhi; Conzelmann, Guenter
2012-04-03
This paper discusses the environmental effects of incorporating wind energy into the electric power system. We present a detailed emissions analysis based on comprehensive modeling of power system operations with unit commitment and economic dispatch for different wind penetration levels. First, by minimizing cost, the unit commitment model decides which thermal power plants will be utilized based on a wind power forecast, and then, the economic dispatch model dictates the level of production for each unit as a function of the realized wind power generation. Finally, knowing the power production from each power plant, the emissions are calculated. The emissions model incorporates the effects of both cycling and start-ups of thermal power plants in analyzing emissions from an electric power system with increasing levels of wind power. Our results for the power system in the state of Illinois show significant emissions effects from increased cycling and particularly start-ups of thermal power plants. However, we conclude that as the wind power penetration increases, pollutant emissions decrease overall due to the replacement of fossil fuels.
NianSong Zhang; Dong; Wang; Bei Peng; Yong He
2015-01-01
A study on the dynamic response of a projectile penetrating concrete is conducted. The evolutional process of projectile mass loss and the effect of mass loss on penetration resistance are investigated using theoretical methods. A projectile penetration model considering projectile mass loss is established in three stages, namely, cratering phase, mass loss penetration phase, and remainder rigid projectile penetration phase.
Penetrating trauma to the external genitalia in Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Waxman, S; Beekley, A; Morey, A; Soderdahl, D
2009-01-01
This report details the incidence and description of trauma to the external genitalia experienced during Operation Iraqi Freedom at a United States Army Combat Support Hospital, and demonstrates that acceptable rates of testicular salvage are possible in the combat setting. The operating room logs and the Joint Theater Trauma Registry were used to conduct a retrospective review of the patients who sustained genitourinary (GU) injuries at an US Army Combat Support Hospital (CSH) in Iraq from 27 February 2007 to 14 August 2007. Of the 3595 battle trauma injuries seen at the CSH during the time period, 168 (4.7%) had one or more GU injuries for a total of 172 GU injuries. Of these patients, 115 (68%) with GU injuries had one or more injuries to the external genitalia for a total of 119 external GU injuries. Penetrating trauma to the penis and scrotum accounted for 59 of the injuries. In total, 43 testicles were injured in 34 patients (9 had bilateral injuries). In total, 32 testes were repaired primarily and 11 were removed. Injuries to the external genitalia continue to account for the vast majority of GU trauma in a combat setting. Of patients who presented with penetrating testicular trauma, there was a 74.4% salvage rate, which is higher than previous reports of combat external genitalia injuries. Treatment of penetrating trauma to the external genitalia in a combat setting requires attention to tissue preservation while coordinating associated surgical procedures.
Microgrid optimal scheduling considering impact of high penetration wind generation
Alanazi, Abdulaziz
The objective of this thesis is to study the impact of high penetration wind energy in economic and reliable operation of microgrids. Wind power is variable, i.e., constantly changing, and nondispatchable, i.e., cannot be controlled by the microgrid controller. Thus an accurate forecasting of wind power is an essential task in order to study its impacts in microgrid operation. Two commonly used forecasting methods including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) have been used in this thesis to improve the wind power forecasting. The forecasting error is calculated using a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and is improved using the ANN. The wind forecast is further used in the microgrid optimal scheduling problem. The microgrid optimal scheduling is performed by developing a viable model for security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) based on mixed-integer linear programing (MILP) method. The proposed SCUC is solved for various wind penetration levels and the relationship between the total cost and the wind power penetration is found. In order to reduce microgrid power transfer fluctuations, an additional constraint is proposed and added to the SCUC formulation. The new constraint would control the time-based fluctuations. The impact of the constraint on microgrid SCUC results is tested and validated with numerical analysis. Finally, the applicability of proposed models is demonstrated through numerical simulations.
Cluster Membership Probability: Polarimetric Approach
Medhi, Biman J
2013-01-01
Interstellar polarimetric data of the six open clusters Hogg 15, NGC 6611, NGC 5606, NGC 6231, NGC 5749 and NGC 6250 have been used to estimate the membership probability for the stars within them. For proper-motion member stars, the membership probability estimated using the polarimetric data is in good agreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. However, for proper-motion non-member stars, the membership probability estimated by the polarimetric method is in total disagreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. The inconsistencies in the determined memberships may be because of the fundamental differences between the two methods of determination: one is based on stellar proper-motion in space and the other is based on selective extinction of the stellar output by the asymmetric aligned dust grains present in the interstellar medium. The results and analysis suggest that the scatter of the Stokes vectors q(%) and u(%) for the proper-motion member stars depends on the ...
Normal probability plots with confidence.
Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang
2015-01-01
Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods.
THE PENETRATION OF VESICANT VAPORS INTO HUMAN SKIN.
Nagy, S M; Golumbic, C; Stein, W H; Fruton, J S; Bergmann, M
1946-07-20
Analytical methods which are accurate to about 1 per cent have been developed for the determination of small amounts (ca. 500 gamma) of bis(beta-chloroethyl)-sulfide (H), ethyl-bis(beta-chloroethyl)amine (EBA), tris(beta-chloroethyl)amine (TBA), beta-chloroethyl-benzylsulfide (benzyl-H), and beta-chloroethyl-ethylsulfide (ethyl-H). The determinations are made by micro titration of the HCl liberated upon complete hydrolysis of the vesicants. A description is given of an apparatus suitable for applying vapors of vesicants to unit areas of skin. A very precise and reproducible micropipetting technique is described for the introduction of the vesicants into the penetration apparatus. By means of this penetration apparatus studies have been made of several factors which may influence the rate at which vesicant vapors penetrate into skin. Model experiments have been performed in which H was allowed to vaporize and the vapor was absorbed on a surface such as that of diethylene glycol or vaseline. It has been found that if the surface of liquid H is increased by spreading the agent on filter paper, the rate of evaporation is markedly increased. Furthermore, if the vapor is agitated by means of a magnetically driven fan, the rate of absorption by diethylene glycol is greatly accelerated. With vaseline as the absorbing surface it has been found that the area of the absorbing surface has an effect on the rate of absorption of H vapor. More H is absorbed by vaseline spread on filter paper to give a rough surface than is absorbed by a smooth film of vaseline. Measurements of the rate of penetration into human skin of H, EBA, TBA, benzyl-H, and ethyl-H vapors have been performed at 21-23 degrees C. and 30-31 degrees C. by means of the penetration apparatus described in this paper. The measurements were carred out on human volunteers under conditions of controlled temperature and humidity. When human skin is exposed to air saturated with H vapor, the H penetrates the skin of the
3D Ground Penetrating Imaging Radar
ECT Team, Purdue
2007-01-01
GPiR (ground-penetrating imaging radar) is a new technology for mapping the shallow subsurface, including society’s underground infrastructure. Applications for this technology include efficient and precise mapping of buried utilities on a large scale.
Penetration testing protecting networks and systems
Henry, Kevin M
2012-01-01
This book is a preparation guide for the CPTE examination, yet is also a general reference for experienced penetration testers, ethical hackers, auditors, security personnel and anyone else involved in the security of an organization's computer systems.
Identifying structural damage with ground penetrating radar
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Van Schoor, Abraham M
2008-07-01
Full Text Available Ground penetrating radar (GPR) and electrical resistance tomography (ERT) surveys were conducted in an urban environment in an attempt to identify the cause of severe structural damage to a historically significant residential property...
Kali Linux wireless penetration testing beginner's guide
Ramachandran, Vivek
2015-01-01
If you are a security professional, pentester, or anyone interested in getting to grips with wireless penetration testing, this is the book for you. Some familiarity with Kali Linux and wireless concepts is beneficial.
Airborne ground penetrating radar: practical field experiments
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Van Schoor, Michael
2013-10-01
Full Text Available The performance of ground penetrating radar (GPR) under conditions where the ground coupling of the antenna is potentially compromised is investigated. Of particular interest is the effect of increasing the distance between the antennae...
An Observational Investigation of Penetrative Convection
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Niels Otto; Lenschow, D. H.
1978-01-01
Data taken during the Air Mass Transformation Experiment (AMTEX) by the NCAR Electra aircraft have proven useful for investigating the structure of thermals penetrating into the turbulent inversion layer which caps the convective mixed layer. Variances, covariances, spectra and cospectra...
Prediction of weld penetration extent in GTAW
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Zhao Ming; Zhai Lei
2008-01-01
The governing equations of surface-deformation in fully-penetrated GTA W weld pool are derived. The solution scheme of the Lagrange multiplier, which makes the top sutface-deformation equation be coupled with that for the bottomsurface of a single weld pool, is given out. Through numerical analysis of weld pool surface-deformation in GTA W,it is found that there is clear correlation between the penetration extent and the Lagrange multiplier, in addition to the relationship between the penetration extent and the maximum depression and hump as well as the depressed volume of the top surface of weld pool. It lays good foundation for top-side sensing based weld penetration control.
Detonation probabilities of high explosives
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Eisenhawer, S.W.; Bott, T.F.; Bement, T.R.
1995-07-01
The probability of a high explosive violent reaction (HEVR) following various events is an extremely important aspect of estimating accident-sequence frequency for nuclear weapons dismantlement. In this paper, we describe the development of response curves for insults to PBX 9404, a conventional high-performance explosive used in US weapons. The insults during dismantlement include drops of high explosive (HE), strikes of tools and components on HE, and abrasion of the explosive. In the case of drops, we combine available test data on HEVRs and the results of flooring certification tests to estimate the HEVR probability. For other insults, it was necessary to use expert opinion. We describe the expert solicitation process and the methods used to consolidate the responses. The HEVR probabilities obtained from both approaches are compared.
Probability theory a foundational course
Pakshirajan, R P
2013-01-01
This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.
VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich
2012-10-01
Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.
Approximation methods in probability theory
Čekanavičius, Vydas
2016-01-01
This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.
Probability on real Lie algebras
Franz, Uwe
2016-01-01
This monograph is a progressive introduction to non-commutativity in probability theory, summarizing and synthesizing recent results about classical and quantum stochastic processes on Lie algebras. In the early chapters, focus is placed on concrete examples of the links between algebraic relations and the moments of probability distributions. The subsequent chapters are more advanced and deal with Wigner densities for non-commutative couples of random variables, non-commutative stochastic processes with independent increments (quantum Lévy processes), and the quantum Malliavin calculus. This book will appeal to advanced undergraduate and graduate students interested in the relations between algebra, probability, and quantum theory. It also addresses a more advanced audience by covering other topics related to non-commutativity in stochastic calculus, Lévy processes, and the Malliavin calculus.
Penetrating facial injury by a wooden log
Mohan, Sadanandan; Varghese, George; Kumar, Sanjay; Subramanian, Dinesh Pambungal
2014-01-01
Penetrating facial injuries are potentially dangerous and require emergency management because of the presence of vital structures in the face and it may be life threatening especially when the injury involves airway, major blood vessels, spinal cord and cervical spines. Penetrating injuries of facial region can occur due to missile injuries, blast injuries, accidental fall on sharp objects such as sticks or glass and motor vehicle accidents etc., Indications for immediate surgical management...
Magnetic field penetration of erosion switch plasmas
Mason, Rodney J.; Jones, Michael E.; Grossmann, John M.; Ottinger, Paul F.
1988-10-01
Computer simulations demonstrate that the entrainment (or advection) of magnetic field with the flow of cathode-emitted electrons can constitute a dominant mechanism for the magnetic field penetration of erosion switch plasmas. Cross-field drift in the accelerating electric field near the cathode starts the penetration process. Plasma erosion propagates the point for emission and magnetic field injection along the cathode toward the load-for the possibility of rapid switch opening.
Effect of penetrants on the aramid Nomex
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Anjana Jain; Kalyani Vijayan
2000-06-01
The response of Nomex sheets to some penetrants has been analyzed. The process of moisture uptake depends on the relative humidity (RH) of the ambient atmosphere and the initial characteristics of the polymer. In the case of common laboratory solvents, the uptake by the polymer shows an inverse dependence on the molar volume of the former. Although the calendered and the uncalendered Nomex sheets exhibit an overall similarity in their response to various penetrants, quantitative comparison reveals distinct differences.
Probability of Synanthropic Corvid Presence in the Western United States
U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model of habitat utilization by synanthropic avian predators: common ravens (Corvus corax), American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos), and black-billed magpies (Pica...
Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
Olofsson, Peter
2011-01-01
A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d
Innovation and social probable knowledge
Marco Crocco
2000-01-01
In this paper some elements of Keynes's theory of probability are used to understand the process of diffusion of an innovation. Based on a work done elsewhere (Crocco 1999, 2000), we argue that this process can be viewed as a process of dealing with the collective uncertainty about how to sort a technological problem. Expanding the concepts of weight of argument and probable knowledge to deal with this kind of uncertainty we argue that the concepts of social weight of argument and social prob...
Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)
2002-01-01
When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.
Probability, statistics, and queueing theory
Allen, Arnold O
1990-01-01
This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit
Penetration of Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus into host cells.
Abram, D; Castro e Melo, J; Chou, D
1974-05-01
Electron microscopy reveals that, in Bdellovibrio infection, after the formation of a passage pore in the host cell wall, the differentiated parasite penetration pole is associated with the host protoplast. This firm contact persists throughout the parasite penetration and after this process is completed. In penetrated hosts this contact is also apparent by phase microscopy. The association between the walls of the parasite and the host at the passage pore, on the other hand, is transient. Bdellovibrio do not penetrate hosts whose protoplast and cell walls are separated by plasmolysis, or in which the membrane-wall relationship is affected by low turgor pressure. It is concluded, therefore, that for penetration to occur it is essential that the host protoplast be within reach of the parasite, so that a firm contact can be established between them. A penetration mechanism is proposed that is effected by forces generated by fluxes of water and solutes due to structural changes in the infected host envelope. These forces cause a differential expansion of the host protoplast and cell wall and their separation from each other around the entry site, while the parasite remains firmly anchored to the host protoplast. Consequently, the parasite ends up enclosed in the expanded host periplasm. The actual entry, therefore, is a passive act of the parasite.
Giant gastric ulcer penetrating into the pancreas.
Fujihara, Shintaro; Mori, Hirohito; Nishiyama, Noriko; Kobara, Hideki; Masaki, Tsutomu
2012-09-01
A 57-year-old man developed haematemesis and was referred to our institution. His discomfort had begun 3 weeks earlier and localised to the upper abdomen. Abdominal CT showed a defect of gastric mucosa and gastric wall thickening. Oesophagogastroduodenoscopy showed that he had an active gastric ulcer, 40 mm in diameter, on the lesser curvature in the upper third of the corpus and the presence of a pancreatic body at the ulcer base, penetration to the pancreas. Open gastrectomy was performed with a preoperative diagnosis of localised peritonitis caused by penetration of the stomach into the pancreas. Histopathology of resected specimens showed a benign peptic ulcer, 40×40 mm in size, was found on the lesser curvature in the antrum, and this had penetrated through the pancreas. The most serious complications of PUD include haemorrhage, perforation, penetration, and gastric outlet obstruction. Approximately 7% of patients experience perforation, which occurs when an ulcer erodes through the wall and leaks air and digestive contents into the peritoneal cavity. Antral and duodenal ulcers can penetrate into the pancreas. We report a case of gastric ulcer penetrating into the pancreas.
Simulation of Mine Electrical Penetration Technology
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LIU Zhi-xin; YUE Jian-hua; LIU Shu-cai
2007-01-01
Based on the principle of electrical penetration, the reflection characteristics of collapse columns at different locations of a working face is numerically simulated by using a 3D finite element method. The data collected by the electrical penetration is processed and interpreted using "tunnel penetration" which is similar to radio wave penetration. Reflection characteristics of collapse columns at different locations below floors of coal seams are analyzed, providing a new paradigm and a theoretical foundation for processing and interpreting electrical penetration data. The tomography analysis is made based on data simulation and calculation results and alltransmitting-receiving points are analyzed for their corresponding maximum attenuation values and maximum absorption coefficients. On the basis of this, a new method for precisely interpreting the spatial positions of geological anomalous bodies is suggested. The simulation shows that 1) the detection result of both roof and floors of the working face by electrical penetration is a volumetric effect and 2) there exists a corresponding relation between the detection depth and the working face width, with the optimal detection depth within 40% of the working face width.
In vitro penetration of bleaching agents into the pulp chamber
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Benetti, Ana Raquel; Valera, M C; Mancini, M N G
2004-01-01
To investigate pulp chamber penetration of bleaching agents in teeth following restorative procedures.......To investigate pulp chamber penetration of bleaching agents in teeth following restorative procedures....
Cost-utility analysis of prehospital spine immobilization recommendations for penetrating trauma.
Garcia, Arturo; Liu, Terrence H; Victorino, Gregory P
2014-02-01
The American College of Surgeons' Committee on Trauma's recent prehospital trauma life support recommendations against prehospital spine immobilization (PHSI) after penetrating trauma are based on a low incidence of unstable spine injuries after penetrating injuries. However, given the chronic and costly nature of devastating spine injuries, the cost-utility of PHSI is unclear. Our hypothesis was that the cost-utility of PHSI in penetrating trauma precludes routine use of this prevention strategy. A Markov model based cost-utility analysis was performed from a society perspective of a hypothetical cohort of 20-year-old males presenting with penetrating trauma and transported to a US hospital. The analysis compared PHSI with observation alone. The probabilities of spine injuries, costs (US 2010 dollars), and utility of the two groups were derived from published studies and public data. Incremental effectiveness was measured in quality-adjusted life-years. Subset analyses of isolated head and neck injuries as well as sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the strength of the recommendations. Only 0.2% of penetrating trauma produced unstable spine injury, and only 7.4% of the patients with unstable spine injury who underwent spine stabilization had neurologic improvement. The total lifetime per-patient cost was $930,446 for the PHSI group versus $929,883 for the nonimmobilization group, with no difference in overall quality-adjusted life-years. Subset analysis demonstrated that PHSI for patients with isolated head or neck injuries provided equivocal benefit over nonimmobilization. PHSI was not cost-effective for patients with torso or extremity penetrating trauma. Despite increased incidence of unstable spine injures produced by penetrating head or neck injuries, the cost-benefit of PHSI in these patients is equivocal, and further studies may be needed before omitting PHSI in patients with penetrating head and neck injuries. Economic and value-based evaluation
Comments on quantum probability theory.
Sloman, Steven
2014-01-01
Quantum probability theory (QP) is the best formal representation available of the most common form of judgment involving attribute comparison (inside judgment). People are capable, however, of judgments that involve proportions over sets of instances (outside judgment). Here, the theory does not do so well. I discuss the theory both in terms of descriptive adequacy and normative appropriateness.
Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards
Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe
2016-01-01
Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…
Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.
Pfeiffer, Paul E.
This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…
Fuzzy Markov chains: uncertain probabilities
2002-01-01
We consider finite Markov chains where there are uncertainties in some of the transition probabilities. These uncertainties are modeled by fuzzy numbers. Using a restricted fuzzy matrix multiplication we investigate the properties of regular, and absorbing, fuzzy Markov chains and show that the basic properties of these classical Markov chains generalize to fuzzy Markov chains.
Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards
Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe
2016-01-01
Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…
DECOFF Probabilities of Failed Operations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gintautas, Tomas
A statistical procedure of estimation of Probabilities of Failed Operations is described and exemplified using ECMWF weather forecasts and SIMO output from Rotor Lift test case models. Also safety factor influence is investigated. DECOFF statistical method is benchmarked against standard Alpha...
A Novel Approach to Probability
Kafri, Oded
2016-01-01
When P indistinguishable balls are randomly distributed among L distinguishable boxes, and considering the dense system in which P much greater than L, our natural intuition tells us that the box with the average number of balls has the highest probability and that none of boxes are empty; however in reality, the probability of the empty box is always the highest. This fact is with contradistinction to sparse system in which the number of balls is smaller than the number of boxes (i.e. energy distribution in gas) in which the average value has the highest probability. Here we show that when we postulate the requirement that all possible configurations of balls in the boxes have equal probabilities, a realistic "long tail" distribution is obtained. This formalism when applied for sparse systems converges to distributions in which the average is preferred. We calculate some of the distributions resulted from this postulate and obtain most of the known distributions in nature, namely, Zipf law, Benford law, part...
Probability representations of fuzzy systems
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LI Hongxing
2006-01-01
In this paper, the probability significance of fuzzy systems is revealed. It is pointed out that COG method, a defuzzification technique used commonly in fuzzy systems, is reasonable and is the optimal method in the sense of mean square. Based on different fuzzy implication operators, several typical probability distributions such as Zadeh distribution, Mamdani distribution, Lukasiewicz distribution, etc. are given. Those distributions act as "inner kernels" of fuzzy systems. Furthermore, by some properties of probability distributions of fuzzy systems, it is also demonstrated that CRI method, proposed by Zadeh, for constructing fuzzy systems is basically reasonable and effective. Besides, the special action of uniform probability distributions in fuzzy systems is characterized. Finally, the relationship between CRI method and triple I method is discussed. In the sense of construction of fuzzy systems, when restricting three fuzzy implication operators in triple I method to the same operator, CRI method and triple I method may be related in the following three basic ways: 1) Two methods are equivalent; 2) the latter is a degeneration of the former; 3) the latter is trivial whereas the former is not. When three fuzzy implication operators in triple I method are not restricted to the same operator, CRI method is a special case of triple I method; that is, triple I method is a more comprehensive algorithm. Since triple I method has a good logical foundation and comprises an idea of optimization of reasoning, triple I method will possess a beautiful vista of application.
Rapid penetration into granular media visualizing the fundamental physics of rapid earth penetration
Iskander, Magued
2015-01-01
Rapid Penetration into Granular Media: Visualizing the Fundamental Physics of Rapid Earth Penetration introduces readers to the variety of methods and techniques used to visualize, observe, and model the rapid penetration of natural and man-made projectiles into earth materials. It provides seasoned practitioners with a standard reference that showcases the topic's most recent developments in research and application. The text compiles the findings of new research developments on the subject, outlines the fundamental physics of rapid penetration into granular media, and assembles a com
Photovoltaic array with minimally penetrating rooftop support system
Lenox, Carl J.S.
2012-10-23
A photovoltaic array including a plurality of photovoltaic assemblies and a plurality of mounting units. The mounting units each include an elongate rail and a plurality of leg assemblies. The rail is sized and configured to maintain a portion of at least two of the photovoltaic assemblies, with the leg assemblies extending from the rail in a spaced-apart fashion and terminating in a foot for placement against a rooftop structure for minimally penetration installation. Further, at least one of the leg assemblies can include a retractable leg. When the photovoltaic array is installed to a rooftop structure including a membrane intermittently secured to a rooftop deck, the retractable leg accommodates upward billowing of the membrane under windy conditions.
Understanding Y haplotype matching probability.
Brenner, Charles H
2014-01-01
The Y haplotype population-genetic terrain is better explored from a fresh perspective rather than by analogy with the more familiar autosomal ideas. For haplotype matching probabilities, versus for autosomal matching probabilities, explicit attention to modelling - such as how evolution got us where we are - is much more important while consideration of population frequency is much less so. This paper explores, extends, and explains some of the concepts of "Fundamental problem of forensic mathematics - the evidential strength of a rare haplotype match". That earlier paper presented and validated a "kappa method" formula for the evidential strength when a suspect matches a previously unseen haplotype (such as a Y-haplotype) at the crime scene. Mathematical implications of the kappa method are intuitive and reasonable. Suspicions to the contrary raised in rest on elementary errors. Critical to deriving the kappa method or any sensible evidential calculation is understanding that thinking about haplotype population frequency is a red herring; the pivotal question is one of matching probability. But confusion between the two is unfortunately institutionalized in much of the forensic world. Examples make clear why (matching) probability is not (population) frequency and why uncertainty intervals on matching probabilities are merely confused thinking. Forensic matching calculations should be based on a model, on stipulated premises. The model inevitably only approximates reality, and any error in the results comes only from error in the model, the inexactness of the approximation. Sampling variation does not measure that inexactness and hence is not helpful in explaining evidence and is in fact an impediment. Alternative haplotype matching probability approaches that various authors have considered are reviewed. Some are based on no model and cannot be taken seriously. For the others, some evaluation of the models is discussed. Recent evidence supports the adequacy of
Probabilistic liquefaction triggering based on the cone penetration test
Moss, R.E.S.; Seed, R.B.; Kayen, R.E.; Stewart, J.P.; Tokimatsu, K.
2005-01-01
Performance-based earthquake engineering requires a probabilistic treatment of potential failure modes in order to accurately quantify the overall stability of the system. This paper is a summary of the application portions of the probabilistic liquefaction triggering correlations proposed recently proposed by Moss and co-workers. To enable probabilistic treatment of liquefaction triggering, the variables comprising the seismic load and the liquefaction resistance were treated as inherently uncertain. Supporting data from an extensive Cone Penetration Test (CPT)-based liquefaction case history database were used to develop a probabilistic correlation. The methods used to measure the uncertainty of the load and resistance variables, how the interactions of these variables were treated using Bayesian updating, and how reliability analysis was applied to produce curves of equal probability of liquefaction are presented. The normalization for effective overburden stress, the magnitude correlated duration weighting factor, and the non-linear shear mass participation factor used are also discussed.
Probability biases as Bayesian inference
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andre; C. R. Martins
2006-11-01
Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.
Cluster pre-existence probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rajeswari, N.S.; Vijayaraghavan, K.R.; Balasubramaniam, M. [Bharathiar University, Department of Physics, Coimbatore (India)
2011-10-15
Pre-existence probability of the fragments for the complete binary spectrum of different systems such as {sup 56}Ni, {sup 116}Ba, {sup 226}Ra and {sup 256}Fm are calculated, from the overlapping part of the interaction potential using the WKB approximation. The role of reduced mass as well as the classical hydrodynamical mass in the WKB method is analysed. Within WKB, even for negative Q -value systems, the pre-existence probability is calculated. The calculations reveal rich structural information. The calculated results are compared with the values of preformed cluster model of Gupta and collaborators. The mass asymmetry motion is shown here for the first time as a part of relative separation motion. (orig.)
Large deviations and idempotent probability
Puhalskii, Anatolii
2001-01-01
In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...
Sm Transition Probabilities and Abundances
Lawler, J E; Sneden, C; Cowan, J J
2005-01-01
Radiative lifetimes, accurate to +/- 5%, have been measured for 212 odd-parity levels of Sm II using laser-induced fluorescence. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier-transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for more than 900 lines of Sm II. This work is the largest-scale laboratory study to date of Sm II transition probabilities using modern methods. This improved data set has been used to determine a new solar photospheric Sm abundance, log epsilon = 1.00 +/- 0.03, from 26 lines. The spectra of three very metal-poor, neutron-capture-rich stars also have been analyzed, employing between 55 and 72 Sm II lines per star. The abundance ratios of Sm relative to other rare earth elements in these stars are in agreement, and are consistent with ratios expected from rapid neutron-capture nucleosynthesis (the r-process).
Knot probabilities in random diagrams
Cantarella, Jason; Chapman, Harrison; Mastin, Matt
2016-10-01
We consider a natural model of random knotting—choose a knot diagram at random from the finite set of diagrams with n crossings. We tabulate diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings and classify the diagrams by knot type, allowing us to compute exact probabilities for knots in this model. As expected, most diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings are unknots (about 78% of the roughly 1.6 billion 10 crossing diagrams). For these crossing numbers, the unknot fraction is mostly explained by the prevalence of ‘tree-like’ diagrams which are unknots for any assignment of over/under information at crossings. The data shows a roughly linear relationship between the log of knot type probability and the log of the frequency rank of the knot type, analogous to Zipf’s law for word frequency. The complete tabulation and all knot frequencies are included as supplementary data.
Probability distributions for multimeric systems.
Albert, Jaroslav; Rooman, Marianne
2016-01-01
We propose a fast and accurate method of obtaining the equilibrium mono-modal joint probability distributions for multimeric systems. The method necessitates only two assumptions: the copy number of all species of molecule may be treated as continuous; and, the probability density functions (pdf) are well-approximated by multivariate skew normal distributions (MSND). Starting from the master equation, we convert the problem into a set of equations for the statistical moments which are then expressed in terms of the parameters intrinsic to the MSND. Using an optimization package on Mathematica, we minimize a Euclidian distance function comprising of a sum of the squared difference between the left and the right hand sides of these equations. Comparison of results obtained via our method with those rendered by the Gillespie algorithm demonstrates our method to be highly accurate as well as efficient.
A RETROSPECTIVE STUDY ON PENETRATING INJURIES ABDOMEN
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alli Muthiah
2017-02-01
Full Text Available BACKGROUND Penetrating abdominal injuries forms an important component of surgical emergencies. It remains one of the commonest reasons for preventable deaths in any trauma systems. 1 Abdominal injuries may be parietal or visceral or perforating through and through injury. Unnecessary exploration leads to increased morbidity. The goal in managing penetrating abdominal injuries is to identify and treat all the damages caused by the weapon and to reduce negative laparotomy and avoid missed injuries. MATERIALS AND METHODS A retrospective study that was carried out in 53 patients in Government Kilpauk Medical College and Government Royapettah Hospital from May 2007 to July 2009 on penetrating injuries abdomen. RESULTS Among 53 patients, maximum number of cases were in the age group of 30-40 years. Assault injuries account for 87% of cases of penetrating abdominal injuries. Small bowel was the commonly injured organ in this study. Laparotomy was therapeutic in 94% of the cases (64% of the cases underwent laparotomy. CONCLUSION Careful and serial clinical examination and appropriate diagnostic investigations leads to successful treatment in these patients. Computed tomography is highly sensitive in predicting both peritoneal penetration and intra-abdominal visceral injuries.
Enhanced chlorhexidine skin penetration with eucalyptus oil
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Worthington Tony
2010-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Chlorhexidine digluconate (CHG is a widely used skin antiseptic, however it poorly penetrates the skin, limiting its efficacy against microorganisms residing beneath the surface layers of skin. The aim of the current study was to improve the delivery of chlorhexidine digluconate (CHG when used as a skin antiseptic. Method Chlorhexidine was applied to the surface of donor skin and its penetration and retention under different conditions was evaluated. Skin penetration studies were performed on full-thickness donor human skin using a Franz diffusion cell system. Skin was exposed to 2% (w/v CHG in various concentrations of eucalyptus oil (EO and 70% (v/v isopropyl alcohol (IPA. The concentration of CHG (μg/mg of skin was determined to a skin depth of 1500 μm by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC. Results The 2% (w/v CHG penetration into the lower layers of skin was significantly enhanced in the presence of EO. Ten percent (v/v EO in combination with 2% (w/v CHG in 70% (v/v IPA significantly increased the amount of CHG which penetrated into the skin within 2 min. Conclusion The delivery of CHG into the epidermis and dermis can be enhanced by combination with EO, which in turn may improve biocide contact with additional microorganisms present in the skin, thereby enhancing antisepsis.
Asbestos and Probable Microscopic Polyangiitis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
George S Rashed Philteos
2004-01-01
Full Text Available Several inorganic dust lung diseases (pneumoconioses are associated with autoimmune diseases. Although autoimmune serological abnormalities are common in asbestosis, clinical autoimmune/collagen vascular diseases are not commonly reported. A case of pulmonary asbestosis complicated by perinuclear-antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (myeloperoxidase positive probable microscopic polyangiitis (glomerulonephritis, pericarditis, alveolitis, multineuritis multiplex is described and the possible immunological mechanisms whereby asbestosis fibres might be relevant in induction of antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies are reviewed in the present report.
Logic, Probability, and Human Reasoning
2015-01-01
3–6] and they underlie mathematics , science, and tech- nology [7–10]. Plato claimed that emotions upset reason - ing. However, individuals in the grip...Press 10 Nickerson, R. (2011) Mathematical Reasoning : Patterns, Problems, Conjectures, and Proofs, Taylor & Francis 11 Blanchette, E. and Richards, A...Logic, probability, and human reasoning P.N. Johnson-Laird1,2, Sangeet S. Khemlani3, and Geoffrey P. Goodwin4 1 Princeton University, Princeton, NJ
Probability and statistics: A reminder
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Clément Benoit
2013-07-01
Full Text Available The main purpose of these lectures is to provide the reader with the tools needed to data analysis in the framework of physics experiments. Basic concepts are introduced together with examples of application in experimental physics. The lecture is divided into two parts: probability and statistics. It is build on the introduction from “data analysis in experimental sciences” given in [1
Probability Measures on Groups IX
1989-01-01
The latest in this series of Oberwolfach conferences focussed on the interplay between structural probability theory and various other areas of pure and applied mathematics such as Tauberian theory, infinite-dimensional rotation groups, central limit theorems, harmonizable processes, and spherical data. Thus it was attended by mathematicians whose research interests range from number theory to quantum physics in conjunction with structural properties of probabilistic phenomena. This volume contains 5 survey articles submitted on special invitation and 25 original research papers.
Objective probability and quantum fuzziness
Mohrhoff, U
2007-01-01
This paper offers a critique of the Bayesian approach to quantum mechanics in general and of a recent paper by Caves, Fuchs, and Schack in particular (quant-ph/0608190 v2). In this paper the Bayesian interpretation of Born probabilities is defended against what the authors call the "objective-preparations view". The fact that Caves et al. and the proponents of this view equally misconstrue the time dependence of quantum states, voids the arguments pressed by the former against the latter. After tracing the genealogy of this common error, I argue that the real oxymoron is not an unknown quantum state, as the Bayesians hold, but an unprepared quantum state. I further argue that the essential role of probability in quantum theory is to define and quantify an objective fuzziness. This, more than anything, legitimizes conjoining "objective" to "probability". The measurement problem is essentially the problem of finding a coherent way of thinking about this objective fuzziness, and about the supervenience of the ma...
Two methodologies for physical penetration testing using social engineering
Dimkov, Trajce; Pieters, Wolter; Hartel, Pieter
2010-01-01
Penetration tests on IT systems are sometimes coupled with physical penetration tests and social engineering. In physical penetration tests where social engineering is allowed, the penetration tester directly interacts with the employees. These interactions are usually based on deception and if not
A study on the particle penetration in RMS Right Single Quotation Marks particle transport system
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Son, S. M.; Oh, S. H.; Choi, C. R. [ELSOLTEC Inc., Youngin (Korea, Republic of)
2014-10-15
In nuclear facilities, a radiation monitoring system (RMS) monitors the exhaust gas containing the radioactive material. Samples of exhaust gas are collected in the downstream region of air cleaning units (ACUs) in order to examine radioactive materials. It is possible to predict an amount of radioactive material by analyzing the corrected samples. Representation of the collected samples should be assured in order to accurately sense and measure of radioactive materials. The radius of curvature is mainly 5 times of tube diameter. Sometimes, a booster fan is additionally added to enhance particle penetration rate... In this study, particle penetrations are calculated to evaluate particle penetration rate with various design parameters (tube lengths, tube declined angles, radius of curvatures, etc). The particle penetration rates have been calculated for several elements in the particle transport system. In general, the horizontal length of tube and the number of bending tube have a big impact on the penetration rate in the particle transport system. If the sampling location is far from the radiation monitoring system, additional installation of booster fans could be considered in case of large diameter tubes, but is not recommended in case of small diameter tube. In order to enhance particle penetration rate, the following works are recommended by priority. 1) to reduce the interval between sampling location and radiation monitoring system 2) to reduce the number of the bending tube.
Empirical and Computational Tsunami Probability
Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.; ten Brink, U. S.; Lee, H. J.
2008-12-01
A key component in assessing the hazard posed by tsunamis is quantification of tsunami likelihood or probability. To determine tsunami probability, one needs to know the distribution of tsunami sizes and the distribution of inter-event times. Both empirical and computational methods can be used to determine these distributions. Empirical methods rely on an extensive tsunami catalog and hence, the historical data must be carefully analyzed to determine whether the catalog is complete for a given runup or wave height range. Where site-specific historical records are sparse, spatial binning techniques can be used to perform a regional, empirical analysis. Global and site-specific tsunami catalogs suggest that tsunami sizes are distributed according to a truncated or tapered power law and inter-event times are distributed according to an exponential distribution modified to account for clustering of events in time. Computational methods closely follow Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), where size and inter-event distributions are determined for tsunami sources, rather than tsunamis themselves as with empirical analysis. In comparison to PSHA, a critical difference in the computational approach to tsunami probabilities is the need to account for far-field sources. The three basic steps in computational analysis are (1) determination of parameter space for all potential sources (earthquakes, landslides, etc.), including size and inter-event distributions; (2) calculation of wave heights or runup at coastal locations, typically performed using numerical propagation models; and (3) aggregation of probabilities from all sources and incorporation of uncertainty. It is convenient to classify two different types of uncertainty: epistemic (or knowledge-based) and aleatory (or natural variability). Correspondingly, different methods have been traditionally used to incorporate uncertainty during aggregation, including logic trees and direct integration. Critical
Penetrating power of resonant electromagnetic induction imaging
Guilizzoni, Roberta; Watson, Joseph C.; Bartlett, Paul; Renzoni, Ferruccio
2016-09-01
The possibility of revealing the presence and identifying the nature of conductive targets is of central interest in many fields, including security, medicine, industry, archaeology and geophysics. In many applications, these targets are shielded by external materials and thus cannot be directly accessed. Hence, interrogation techniques are required that allow penetration through the shielding materials, in order for the target to be identified. Electromagnetic interrogation techniques represent a powerful solution to this challenge, as they enable penetration through conductive shields. In this work, we demonstrate the power of resonant electromagnetic induction imaging to penetrate through metallic shields (1.5-mm-thick) and image targets (having conductivities σ ranging from 0.54 to 59.77 MSm-1) concealed behind them.
Penetrating power of resonant electromagnetic induction imaging
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Roberta Guilizzoni
2016-09-01
Full Text Available The possibility of revealing the presence and identifying the nature of conductive targets is of central interest in many fields, including security, medicine, industry, archaeology and geophysics. In many applications, these targets are shielded by external materials and thus cannot be directly accessed. Hence, interrogation techniques are required that allow penetration through the shielding materials, in order for the target to be identified. Electromagnetic interrogation techniques represent a powerful solution to this challenge, as they enable penetration through conductive shields. In this work, we demonstrate the power of resonant electromagnetic induction imaging to penetrate through metallic shields (1.5-mm-thick and image targets (having conductivities σ ranging from 0.54 to 59.77 MSm−1 concealed behind them.
Proniosomes for Penetration Enhancement in Transdermal System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Samita Singla
2012-06-01
Full Text Available Over the last few years an inclusive research has been done over provesicular approach for transdermal drug delivery. Skin has a very tough diffusion barrier inhibiting penetration of drug moiety which is rate limiting barrier for penetration of drugs. There are several approaches that deal with penetration enhancement across the skin. Vesicular and provesicular systems are promising amongst them. Vesicular systems including (niosomes, ethosomes, transfersomes and liposomes are promising systems to cross this permeation barrier. But their major drawback is their unstability, which can be overcome by using provesicular approaches like proniosomes, protransfersomes and proliposomes. Provesicular approaches have been proposed to enhance the stability of vesicles. These approaches may overcome skin barrier properties and enhance percutaneous absorption. In these systems both type of drugs, hydrophilic and lipophillic drugs can be incorporated. The focus of this review is to bring together different aspects related to mechanism of skin permeation of provesicular system, proniosomes preparation and its applications as a carrier system
Opportunities for high wind energy penetration
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tande, J.O.; Hansen, J.C.
1997-01-01
Wind power is today a mature technology, which at windy locations, is economically competitive to conventional power generation technologies. This and growing global environmental concerns have led governments to encourage and plan for wind energy development, a typical aim being 10% of electricity...... consumption. The successful operation of the three major power systems of Cape Verde, with a total wind energy penetration of about 15% since December 1994, demonstrates that power systems can be operated with high penetration of wind energy by adding simple control and monitoring systems only. Thorough...... analyses conclude that expanding to even above 15% wind energy penetration in the Cape Verde power systems is economical. Worldwide, numerous locations with favorable wind conditions and power systems similar to the Capeverdean provide good opportunities for installing wind farms and achieving high wind...
Diagnosis and treatment of penetrating anorectal wounds
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LIU Xin-sheng; HUI Xi-zeng; ZHANG Yang-de; LI Kun
2006-01-01
Objective:To research the diagnosis and effective treatment of penetrating anorectal wounds.Methods: Retrospective analysis was done in 16 cases of penetrating anorectal wounds from 1985 to 2004.Debridement and suture of anorectal and vesical wounds,effective diversion of fecal and urinary stream and sufficient presacral drainage were performed in all cases.Results: All the 16 cases were cured. Among them, 2cases with infection in presacral space were cured by sufficient drainage after operation, one case was cured by secondary repair after anal sphincter was repaired unsuccessfully and one case with rectovesical fistula was cured with conservative treatment. None of them suffered from complications such as anal stenosis, dysuria or importence etc.Conclusions: For penetrating anorectal wound, to master early recognition of concomitant injures, to select appropriate surgical intervention and to strengthen perioperative treatment are the keys to improve the curative effects.
Wireless Network Penetration Testing and Security Auditing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wang Shao-Long
2016-01-01
Full Text Available IEEE802.11 wireless wireless networks have security issues that are vulnerable to a variety of attacks. Due to using radio to transport data, attackers can bypass firewalls, sniff sensitive information, intercept packets and send malicious packets. Security auditing and penetration testing is expected to ensure wireless networks security. The contributions of this work are analyzed the vulnerability and types of attacks pertaining to IEEE 802.11 WLAN, performed well known attacks in a laboratory environment to conduct penetration tests to confirm whether our wireless network is hackable or not. WAIDPS is configured as auditing tool to view wireless attacks, such as WEP/WPA/WPA2 cracking, rouge access points, denial of service attack. WAIDPS is designed to detect wireless intrusion with additional features. Penetration testing and auditing will mitigate the risk and threatening to protect WALN.
Chemical engineering of cell penetrating antibodies.
Zhao, Y; Lou, D; Burkett, J; Kohler, H
2001-08-01
Antibodies, being exquisitely specific tools in biology, are routinely used to detect and identify intra-cellular structures. However, current intra-cellular application of antibodies requires that the membrane be rendered leaky, resulting in the death of cells. Here, we present a novel method to allow antibodies to penetrate the cellular membrane of living cells without affecting cell viability. A peptide (MTS, membrane transport sequence) that facilitates transport across membranes has been site-specifically attached to antibodies. MTS-antibodies enter the living cells in culture and can be detected by immunofluorescence and ELISA after extraction. Cellular structures are visualized in living cells using a specific MTS-antibody. Antibodies with membrane penetrating properties can become an important tool for the study of intra-cellular processes in living cells. Furthermore, such membrane penetrating antibodies can be used to selectively stimulate or suppress functions of the cellular machinery.
Penetration of Projectiles in Composite Laminates
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. P. Patel
2004-04-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with the prediction of the penetration phenomenon of a cylindro-conical impactor on the ke;labepoxy-laminated composites using C eight-nded serendipity q&drilateral finite elementbased on first-order shear deformation theory (FSDT. Local as well as global deformations during impact is considered in the evaluation of indentation, penetration, and perforation phases. Local strainsduring impact have been evaluated using the hypothesis made from the available experimental observations of bulging during penetration. A detailed parametric study, considering various projectilesand target plate variables, has been carried out to find their effect on the response of the plate, and ballistic parameters, such as ballistic limit and absorbed energy.
Penetration of erythromycin through Staphylococcus epidermidis biofilm
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LIN Mao-hu; HE Lei; GAO Jie; LIU Yun-xi; SUO Ji-jiang; XING Yu-bin; JIA Ning
2013-01-01
Background The catheter related infection caused by Staphylococcus epiderrnidis biofilm is increasing and difficult to treat by antimicrobial chemotherapy.The properties of biofilms that give rise to antibiotic resistance are only partially understood.This study aimed to elucidate the penetration of erythromycin through Staphylococcus epidermidis biofilm.Methods The penetration ratio of erythromycin through Staphylococcus epidermidis biofilms of 1457,1457-msrA,and wild isolate S68 was detected by biofilm penetration model at different time points according to the standard regression curve.The RNNDNA ratio and the cell density within the biofilms were observed by confocal laser microscope and transmission electromicroscope,respectively.Results The penetration ratios of erythromycin through the biofilms of 1457,1457-msrA,and S68 after cultivation for 36 hours were 0.93,0.55 and 0.4,respectively.The erythromycin penetration ratio through 1457 biofilm (0.58 after 8 hours)was higher than that through the other two (0.499 and 0.31 after 24 hours).Lower growth rate of the cells in biofilm was shown,with reduction of RNA/DNA proportion observed by confocal laser microscope through acridine orange stain.Compared with the control group observed by transmission electrmicroscope,the cell density of biofilm air face was lower than that of agar face,with more cell debris.Conclusions Erythromycin could penetrate to the Staphylococcus epidermidis biofilm,but could not kill the cells thoroughly.The lower growth rate of the cells within biofilm could help decreasing the erythromycin susceptibility.
Operational experience of extreme wind penetrations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Estanqueiro, Ana [INETI/LNEG - National Laboratory for Energy and Geology, Lisbon (Portugal); Mateus, Carlos B. [Instituto de Meteorologia, Lisboa (Portugal); Pestana, Rui [Redes Energeticas Nacionais (REN), Lisboa (Portugal)
2010-07-01
This paper reports the operational experience from the Portuguese Power System during the 2009/2010 winter months when record wind penerations were observed: the instantaneous wind power penetration peaked at 70% of consumption during no-load periods and the wind energy accounted for more than 50% of the energy consumed for a large period. The regulation measures taken by the TSO are presented in the paper, together with the additional reserves operated for added system security. Information on the overall power system behavior under such extreme long-term wind power penetrations will also be addressed. (org.)
Hybrid treatment of penetrating aortic ulcer
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lara, Juan Antonio Herrero; Martins-Romeo, Daniela de Araujo; Escudero, Carlos Caparros; Falcon, Maria del Carmen Prieto; Batista, Vinicius Bianchi, E-mail: jaherrero5@hotmail.com [Unidade de Gestao Clinica (UGC) de Diagnostico por Imagem - Hosppital Universitario Virgen Macarena, Sevilha (Spain); Vazquez, Rosa Maria Lepe [Unit of Radiodiagnosis - Hospital Nuestra Senora de la Merced, Osuna, Sevilha (Spain)
2015-05-15
Penetrating atherosclerotic aortic ulcer is a rare entity with poor prognosis in the setting of acute aortic syndrome. In the literature, cases like the present one, located in the aortic arch, starting with chest pain and evolving with dysphonia, are even rarer. The present report emphasizes the role played by computed tomography in the diagnosis of penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer as well as in the differentiation of this condition from other acute aortic syndromes. Additionally, the authors describe a new therapeutic approach represented by a hybrid endovascular surgical procedure for treatment of the disease. (author)
Large scale wind power penetration in Denmark
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Karnøe, Peter
2013-01-01
he Danish electricity generating system prepared to adopt nuclear power in the 1970s, yet has become the world's front runner in wind power with a national plan for 50% wind power penetration by 2020. This paper deploys a sociotechnical perspective to explain the historical transformation of "net...... expertise evolves and contributes to the normalization and large-scale penetration of wind power in the electricity generating system. The analysis teaches us how technological paths become locked-in, but also indicates keys for locking them out....
Standard Penetration Test and Relative Density
1971-02-01
laboratorio ejecutados con un penetr6metro est’tico pequeno. INTRODUCTION One of the main problems encountered in subsoil e’xploration is in situ...would be more valid. REFERENCES Burmister, D. M. �), "The Grading-Density Relation of Gr•anular Materials ." Proc,.edings of the American Society for...Reclamation (1953), "Second Progress Report of Re- search of the Penetration Resistance Method of Subsurface Explora- tion," Report No. EM-356. Design and Construction Division, Earth Materials Laboratory, Denver,
METHOD ON ESTIMATION OF DRUG'S PENETRATED PARAMETERS
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
刘宇红; 曾衍钧; 许景锋; 张梅
2004-01-01
Transdermal drug delivery system (TDDS) is a new method for drug delivery. The analysis of plenty of experiments in vitro can lead to a suitable mathematical model for the description of the process of the drug's penetration through the skin, together with the important parameters that are related to the characters of the drugs.After the research work of the experiments data,a suitable nonlinear regression model was selected. Using this model, the most important parameter-penetrated coefficient of 20 drugs was computed.In the result one can find, this work supports the theory that the skin can be regarded as singular membrane.
FREEFALL: A seabed penetrator flight code
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hickerson, J.
1988-01-01
This report presents a one-dimensional model and computer program for predicting the motion of seabed penetrators. The program calculates the acceleration, velocity, and depth of a penetrator as a function of time from the moment of launch until the vehicle comes to rest in the sediment. The code is written in Pascal language for use on a small personal computer. Results are presented as printed tables and graphs. A comparison with experimental data is given which indicates that the accuracy of the code is perhaps as good as current techniques for measuring vehicle performance. 31 refs., 12 figs., 5 tabs.
Objective Lightning Probability Forecast Tool Phase II
Lambert, Winnie
2007-01-01
This presentation describes the improvement of a set of lightning probability forecast equations that are used by the 45th Weather Squadron forecasters for their daily 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) weather briefing during the warm season months of May-September. This information is used for general scheduling of operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts during Shuttle flight operations. Five modifications were made by the Applied Meteorology Unit: increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, changed the method of calculating the flow regime of the day, calculated a new optimal layer relative humidity, used a new smoothing technique for the daily climatology, and used a new valid area. The test results indicated that the modified equations showed and increase in skill over the current equations, good reliability, and an ability to distinguish between lightning and non-lightning days.
Chen, Xin; Pang, Shengyong; Shao, Xinyu; Wang, Chunming; Zhang, Xiaosi; Jiang, Ping; Xiao, Jianzhong
2017-05-01
It is well-known that distinct vapor plume dynamics occur during deep penetration laser welding under different keyhole penetration states. However, there is little knowledge about the physical characteristics of vapor plumes (velocity, pressure, flow patterns, etc) located inside transient keyholes of varying penetration regimes in laser welding. This lack of knowledge is primarily because mesoscale vapor plumes are highly dynamic and generally invisible. Based on a well-tested three-dimensional multiphase laser welding model, we conducted a computational study on vapor plume dynamics inside transient keyholes during the fiber laser welding of 304 austenite stainless steel as a function of keyhole penetration regimes. We observed three keyhole regimes of penetration: full penetration, partial penetration and no penetration. We then physically analyzed the vapor plumes in these regimes. We determined that the vapor plume velocities and pressures in all three regimes were uneven and oscillated following the dynamic keyhole with a characteristic timescale in sub-microseconds. Only when the keyhole approached the full penetration regime did vapor plumes begin to violently eject from the bottom of the keyhole opening, whereas in the partial penetration regime, even when the bottom part of the keyhole was open, most of the vapor plume ejected from the upper keyhole opening. This latter observation was similar to that in the no penetration mode. We studied the physical mechanism of this behavior by analyzing the keyhole temperature and vapor plume velocity distributions. We determined that the upward ejection of the vapor plume from the upper keyhole opening was the result of an uneven micro-meter scale boiling phenomenon of the transient keyhole governed by Fresnel absorptions dependent on the local inclination angle of the keyhole wall. Similarly, we determined that the ejection of the vapor plume from the bottom of the keyhole opening resulted from pressure
Probability for Weather and Climate
Smith, L. A.
2013-12-01
Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of
Estimating Probabilities in Recommendation Systems
Sun, Mingxuan; Kidwell, Paul
2010-01-01
Recommendation systems are emerging as an important business application with significant economic impact. Currently popular systems include Amazon's book recommendations, Netflix's movie recommendations, and Pandora's music recommendations. In this paper we address the problem of estimating probabilities associated with recommendation system data using non-parametric kernel smoothing. In our estimation we interpret missing items as randomly censored observations and obtain efficient computation schemes using combinatorial properties of generating functions. We demonstrate our approach with several case studies involving real world movie recommendation data. The results are comparable with state-of-the-art techniques while also providing probabilistic preference estimates outside the scope of traditional recommender systems.
Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
Olofsson, Peter
2012-01-01
This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and
PROBABILITY MODEL OF GUNTHER GENERATOR
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2007-01-01
This paper constructs the probability model of Gunther generator at first, and the finite dimension union distribution of the output sequence is presented. The result shows that the output sequence is an independent and uniformly distributed 0,1 random variable sequence.It gives the theoretical foundation about why Gunther generator can avoid the statistic weakness of the output sequence of stop-and-go generator, and analyzes the coincidence between output sequence and input sequences of Gunther generator. The conclusions of this paper would offer theoretical references for designers and analyzers of clock-controlled generators.
Probability, statistics, and computational science.
Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane
2012-01-01
In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.
Penetration resistance according to penetration rate, cone base size and different soil conditions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel Dias Valadão Junior
2014-06-01
Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the effect of penetration rate and the size of the cone base on the resistance to penetration under different soil moistures and soil bulk density. The experimental design was completely randomized in a 4x2x2x2 factorial arrangement, with the factors, soil bulk density of 1.0; 1.2; 1.4 and 1.6 Mg m-3, soil moisture at the evaluation of 0.16 and 0.22 kg kg-1, penetration rates of 0.166 and 30 mm s-1 and areas of the cone base of 10.98 and 129.28 mm² resulting in 32 treatments with 8 replicates. To ensure greater uniformity and similarity to field conditions, samples passed through cycles of wetting and drying. Only the interaction of the four factors was not significant. Resistance values varied with the density of the soil, regardless of moisture and penetration rate. Soil penetration resistance was influenced by the size of the cone base, with higher values for the smallest base independent of moisture and soil bulk density. The relationship between resistance to penetration and moisture is not always linear, once it is influenced by soil bulk density. Reduction in the area of the cone leads to an increase in the soil resistance to penetration.
Hf Transition Probabilities and Abundances
Lawler, J E; Labby, Z E; Sneden, C; Cowan, J J; Ivans, I I
2006-01-01
Radiative lifetimes from laser-induced fluorescence measurements, accurate to about +/- 5 percent, are reported for 41 odd-parity levels of Hf II. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for 150 lines of Hf II. Approximately half of these new transition probabilities overlap with recent independent measurements using a similar approach. The two sets of measurements are found to be in good agreement for measurements in common. Our new laboratory data are applied to refine the hafnium photospheric solar abundance and to determine hafnium abundances in 10 metal-poor giant stars with enhanced r-process abundances. For the Sun we derive log epsilon (Hf) = 0.88 +/- 0.08 from four lines; the uncertainty is dominated by the weakness of the lines and their blending by other spectral features. Within the uncertainties of our analysis, the r-process-rich stars possess constant Hf/La and Hf/Eu abundance ratios, log epsilon (Hf...
Gd Transition Probabilities and Abundances
Den Hartog, E A; Sneden, C; Cowan, J J
2006-01-01
Radiative lifetimes, accurate to +/- 5%, have been measured for 49 even-parity and 14 odd-parity levels of Gd II using laser-induced fluorescence. The lifetimes are combined with branching fractions measured using Fourier transform spectrometry to determine transition probabilities for 611 lines of Gd II. This work is the largest-scale laboratory study to date of Gd II transition probabilities and the first using a high performance Fourier transform spectrometer. This improved data set has been used to determine a new solar photospheric Gd abundance, log epsilon = 1.11 +/- 0.03. Revised Gd abundances have also been derived for the r-process-rich metal-poor giant stars CS 22892-052, BD+17 3248, and HD 115444. The resulting Gd/Eu abundance ratios are in very good agreement with the solar-system r-process ratio. We have employed the increasingly accurate stellar abundance determinations, resulting in large part from the more precise laboratory atomic data, to predict directly the Solar System r-process elemental...
Subsurface investigation with ground penetrating radar
Ground penetrating radar (GPR) data was collected on a small test plot at the OTF/OSU Turfgrass Research & Education Facility in Columbus, Ohio. This test plot was built to USGA standards for a golf course green, with a constructed sand layer just beneath the surface overlying a gravel layer, that i...
Computed tomographic findings in penetrating peptic ulcer
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Madrazo, B.L.; Halpert, R.D.; Sandler, M.A.; Pearlberg, J.L.
1984-12-01
Four cases of peptic ulcer penetrating the head of the pancreas were diagnosed by computed tomography (CT). Findings common to 3 cases included (a) an ulcer crater, (b) a sinus tract, and (c) enlargement of the head of the pancreas. Unlike other modalities, the inherent spatial resolution of CT allows a convenient diagnosis of this important complication of peptic ulcer disease.
Penetration of albendazole sulphoxide into hydatid cysts.
D. L. Morris; Chinnery, J B; Georgiou, G.; Stamatakis, G; Golematis, B.
1987-01-01
The penetration of albendazole sulphoxide, the principal metabolite of albendazole into hydatid cysts (E granulosus) was measured by means of in vitro animal and clinical studies. The drug freely diffuses across the parasitic membranes. Cyst/serum concentrations of 22% were achieved in patients, longer pre-operative therapy produced higher concentrations.
Penetration of amalgam constituents into dentine
Scholtanus, Johannes D.; Ozcan, Mutlu; Huysmans, Marie-Charlotte D. N. J. M.
2009-01-01
Objectives: Amalgam restorations are replaced by adhesively placed composite resin restorations at an increasing rate. After the removal of amalgam dentine often shows marked dark discoloration that is attributed to the penetration of corrosion products from overlying amalgams. it is questioned whet
Penetration of amalgam constituents into dentine.
Scholtanus, J.D.; Ozcan, M.; Huysmans, M.C.D.N.J.M.
2009-01-01
OBJECTIVES: Amalgam restorations are replaced by adhesively placed composite resin restorations at an increasing rate. After the removal of amalgam dentine often shows marked dark discoloration that is attributed to the penetration of corrosion products from overlying amalgams. It is questioned whet
Limited cerebrospinal fluid penetration of docetaxel
ten Tije, Albert J; Loos, Walter J; Zhao, Ming; Baker, Sharyn D; Enting, Roelien H; van der Meulen, Hans; Verweij, Jaap; Sparreboom, Alex; Enting, Roeline
2004-01-01
Our purpose was to investigate the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) penetration of docetaxel in cancer patients. Docetaxel was administered as a 1-h infusion at a dose of 75 mg/m2 to two patients with metastatic breast cancer and leptomeningeal carcinomatosis. CSF samples were obtained using a lumbar punct
Tree root mapping with ground penetrating radar
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Van Schoor, Abraham M
2009-09-01
Full Text Available roots is required a detailed 3D survey approach is recommended. REFERENCES Butnor, J.R., Doolittle, J.A., Johnsen, K.H., Samuelson, L., Stokes, T. and Kress, L., 2003, Utility of Ground-Penetrating Radar as a Root Biomass Survey Tool in Forest...
Good penetration of moxifloxacin into human abscesses.
Sauermann, Robert; Karch, Rudolf; Kjellsson, Maria C; Feurstein, Thomas; Püspök, Andreas; Langenberger, Herbert; Böhmdorfer, Michaela; Jäger, Walter; Zeitlinger, Markus
2012-01-01
Abscesses are often treated with antibiotics in addition to incision or when incision is unfeasible, but accurate information about antibiotic abscess penetration in humans is missing. This study aimed at evaluating the penetration of moxifloxacin into human abscesses. After administration of a single dose of 400 mg moxifloxacin, drug concentrations were measured in 10 differently located abscesses at incision, and in plasma over 8 h. At incision performed 0.9-4.8 h after administration, moxifloxacin concentrations in abscesses ranged from ≤0.01 to 9.2 mg/l (1.9 ± 3.4 mg/l), indicating pronounced drug accumulation in some abscesses. The degree of abscess penetration could not be explained by covariates like the ratio of surface area to volume or pH of abscesses, or by moxifloxacin plasma concentrations. Concluding, moxifloxacin was detectable in most abscesses and may be a useful antibiotic for this indication. However, antibiotic abscess penetration was highly variable and unpredictable, suggesting surgical abscess incision whenever possible.
Penetration of lipid monolayers by psychoactive drugs
Demel, R.A.; Deenen, L.L.M. van
1966-01-01
The ability of a number of psychoactive drugs to penetrate lipid monolayers of varying composition was examined, and the following observation were made: (1) The increase in surface pressure of a monomolecular film appeared to depend on the chemical nature of the lipid as well as on the initial film
The Basics of Hacking and Penetration Testing Ethical Hacking and Penetration Testing Made Easy
Engebretson, Patrick
2011-01-01
The Basics of Hacking and Penetration Testing serves as an introduction to the steps required to complete a penetration test or perform an ethical hack. You learn how to properly utilize and interpret the results of modern day hacking tools; which are required to complete a penetration test. Tool coverage will include, Backtrack Linux, Google, Whois, Nmap, Nessus, Metasploit, Netcat, Netbus, and more. A simple and clean explanation of how to utilize these tools will allow you to gain a solid understanding of each of the four phases and prepare them to take on more in-depth texts and topi
Poortinga, AT; Busscher, HJ; Bos, R.R.M.
2001-01-01
Deposition to glass of Streptococcus salivarius HB-C12 and Staphylococcus epidermidis 3399 in a parallel plate flow chamber has been studied as a function of ionic strength. Electrophoretic mobility measurements revealed that S. epidermidis 3399 possesses a thick ion-penetrable layer, probably assoc
Poortinga, AT; Busscher, HJ; Bos, R.R.M.
Deposition to glass of Streptococcus salivarius HB-C12 and Staphylococcus epidermidis 3399 in a parallel plate flow chamber has been studied as a function of ionic strength. Electrophoretic mobility measurements revealed that S. epidermidis 3399 possesses a thick ion-penetrable layer, probably
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Crawford, Susan L.; Cinson, Anthony D.; MacFarlan, Paul J.; Hanson, Brady D.; Mathews, Royce
2012-08-01
The objective of this investigation was to evaluate the efficacy of ultrasonic testing (UT) for primary water leak path assessments of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) upper head penetrations. Operating reactors have experienced leakage when stress corrosion cracking of nickel-based alloy penetrations allowed primary water into the annulus of the interference fit between the penetration and the low-alloy steel RPV head. In this investigation, UT leak path data were acquired for an Alloy 600 control rod drive mechanism nozzle penetration, referred to as Nozzle 63, which was removed from the North Anna Unit 2 reactor when the RPV head was replaced in 2002. In-service inspection prior to the head replacement indicated that Nozzle 63 had a probable leakage path through the interference fit region. Nozzle 63 was examined using a phased-array UT probe with a 5.0-MHz, eight-element annular array. Immersion data were acquired from the nozzle inner diameter surface. The UT data were interpreted by comparing to responses measured on a mockup penetration with known features. Following acquisition of the UT data, Nozzle 63 was destructively examined to determine if the features identified in the UT examination, including leakage paths and crystalline boric acid deposits, could be visually confirmed. Additional measurements of boric acid deposit thickness and low-alloy steel wastage were made to assess how these factors affect the UT response. The implications of these findings for interpreting UT leak path data are described.
Post-Classical Probability Theory
Barnum, Howard
2012-01-01
This paper offers a brief introduction to the framework of "general probabilistic theories", otherwise known as the "convex-operational" approach the foundations of quantum mechanics. Broadly speaking, the goal of research in this vein is to locate quantum mechanics within a very much more general, but conceptually very straightforward, generalization of classical probability theory. The hope is that, by viewing quantum mechanics "from the outside", we may be able better to understand it. We illustrate several respects in which this has proved to be the case, reviewing work on cloning and broadcasting, teleportation and entanglement swapping, key distribution, and ensemble steering in this general framework. We also discuss a recent derivation of the Jordan-algebraic structure of finite-dimensional quantum theory from operationally reasonable postulates.
Associativity and normative credal probability.
Snow, P
2002-01-01
Cox's Theorem is a widely cited motivation for probabilistic models of uncertain belief. The theorem relates the associativity of the logical connectives to that of the arithmetic operations of probability. Recent questions about the correctness of Cox's Theorem have been resolved, but there are new questions about one functional equation used by Cox in 1946. This equation is missing from his later work. Advances in knowledge since 1946 and changes in Cox's research interests explain the equation's disappearance. Other associativity-based motivations avoid functional equations altogether, and so may be more transparently applied to finite domains and discrete beliefs. A discrete counterpart of Cox's Theorem can be assembled from results that have been in the literature since 1959.
Probability theory a comprehensive course
Klenke, Achim
2014-01-01
This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms. To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as: • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...
The Inductive Applications of Probability Calculus
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Corrado Gini
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The Author goes back to Founders of Probability calculus to investigate their original interpretation of the probability measure in the applications of the probability theory to real problems. The Author puts in evidence some misunderstandings related to the inversion of deductions derived by the use of probability distributions for investigating the causes of events.
Probability landscapes for integrative genomics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Benecke Arndt
2008-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The comprehension of the gene regulatory code in eukaryotes is one of the major challenges of systems biology, and is a requirement for the development of novel therapeutic strategies for multifactorial diseases. Its bi-fold degeneration precludes brute force and statistical approaches based on the genomic sequence alone. Rather, recursive integration of systematic, whole-genome experimental data with advanced statistical regulatory sequence predictions needs to be developed. Such experimental approaches as well as the prediction tools are only starting to become available and increasing numbers of genome sequences and empirical sequence annotations are under continual discovery-driven change. Furthermore, given the complexity of the question, a decade(s long multi-laboratory effort needs to be envisioned. These constraints need to be considered in the creation of a framework that can pave a road to successful comprehension of the gene regulatory code. Results We introduce here a concept for such a framework, based entirely on systematic annotation in terms of probability profiles of genomic sequence using any type of relevant experimental and theoretical information and subsequent cross-correlation analysis in hypothesis-driven model building and testing. Conclusion Probability landscapes, which include as reference set the probabilistic representation of the genomic sequence, can be used efficiently to discover and analyze correlations amongst initially heterogeneous and un-relatable descriptions and genome-wide measurements. Furthermore, this structure is usable as a support for automatically generating and testing hypotheses for alternative gene regulatory grammars and the evaluation of those through statistical analysis of the high-dimensional correlations between genomic sequence, sequence annotations, and experimental data. Finally, this structure provides a concrete and tangible basis for attempting to formulate a
Incorporating medical interventions into carrier probability estimation for genetic counseling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Katki Hormuzd A
2007-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Mendelian models for predicting who may carry an inherited deleterious mutation of known disease genes based on family history are used in a variety of clinical and research activities. People presenting for genetic counseling are increasingly reporting risk-reducing medical interventions in their family histories because, recently, a slew of prophylactic interventions have become available for certain diseases. For example, oophorectomy reduces risk of breast and ovarian cancers, and is now increasingly being offered to women with family histories of breast and ovarian cancer. Mendelian models should account for medical interventions because interventions modify mutation penetrances and thus affect the carrier probability estimate. Methods We extend Mendelian models to account for medical interventions by accounting for post-intervention disease history through an extra factor that can be estimated from published studies of the effects of interventions. We apply our methods to incorporate oophorectomy into the BRCAPRO model, which predicts a woman's risk of carrying mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 based on her family history of breast and ovarian cancer. This new BRCAPRO is available for clinical use. Results We show that accounting for interventions undergone by family members can seriously affect the mutation carrier probability estimate, especially if the family member has lived many years post-intervention. We show that interventions have more impact on the carrier probability as the benefits of intervention differ more between carriers and non-carriers. Conclusion These findings imply that carrier probability estimates that do not account for medical interventions may be seriously misleading and could affect a clinician's recommendation about offering genetic testing. The BayesMendel software, which allows one to implement any Mendelian carrier probability model, has been extended to allow medical interventions, so future
Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers
Pugachev, V S
1984-01-01
Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector
Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications
Helms, Lester L
2010-01-01
This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process
Statistical convergence of order $\\alpha$ in probability
Pratulananda Das; Sanjoy Ghosal; Sumit Som
2016-01-01
In this paper ideas of different types of convergence of a sequence of random variables in probability, namely, statistical convergence of order $\\alpha$ in probability, strong $p$-Ces$\\grave{\\mbox{a}}$ro summability of order $\\alpha$ in probability, lacunary statistical convergence or $S_{\\theta}$-convergence of order $\\alpha$ in probability, ${N_{\\theta}}$-convergence of order $\\alpha$ in probability have been introduced and their certain basic properties have been studied.
The penetrating depth analysis of Lunar Penetrating Radar onboard Chang’e-3 rover
Xing, Shu-Guo; Su, Yan; Feng, Jian-Qing; Dai, Shun; Xiao, Yuan; Ding, Chun-Yu; Li, Chun-Lai
2017-04-01
Lunar Penetrating Radar (LPR) has successfully been used to acquire a large amount of scientific data during its in-situ detection. The analysis of penetrating depth can help to determine whether the target is within the effective detection range and contribute to distinguishing useful echoes from noise. First, this study introduces two traditional methods, both based on a radar transmission equation, to calculate the penetrating depth. The only difference between the two methods is that the first method adopts system calibration parameters given in the calibration report and the second one uses high-voltage-off radar data. However, some prior knowledge and assumptions are needed in the radar equation and the accuracy of assumptions will directly influence the final results. Therefore, a new method termed the Correlation Coefficient Method (CCM) is provided in this study, which is only based on radar data without any a priori assumptions. The CCM can obtain the penetrating depth according to the different correlation between reflected echoes and noise. To be exact, there is a strong correlation in the useful reflected echoes and a random correlation in the noise between adjacent data traces. In addition, this method can acquire a variable penetrating depth along the profile of the rover, but only one single depth value can be obtained from traditional methods. Through a simulation, the CCM has been verified as an effective method to obtain penetration depth. The comparisons and analysis of the calculation results of these three methods are also implemented in this study. Finally, results show that the ultimate penetrating depth of Channel 1 and the estimated penetrating depth of Channel 2 range from 136.9 m to 165.5 m ({\\varepsilon }r=6.6) and from 13.0 m to 17.5 m ({\\varepsilon }r=2.3), respectively.
Fusion probability in heavy nuclei
Banerjee, Tathagata; Nath, S.; Pal, Santanu
2015-03-01
Background: Fusion between two massive nuclei is a very complex process and is characterized by three stages: (a) capture inside the potential barrier, (b) formation of an equilibrated compound nucleus (CN), and (c) statistical decay of the CN leading to a cold evaporation residue (ER) or fission. The second stage is the least understood of the three and is the most crucial in predicting yield of superheavy elements (SHE) formed in complete fusion reactions. Purpose: A systematic study of average fusion probability, PCN> , is undertaken to obtain a better understanding of its dependence on various reaction parameters. The study may also help to clearly demarcate onset of non-CN fission (NCNF), which causes fusion probability, PCN, to deviate from unity. Method: ER excitation functions for 52 reactions leading to CN in the mass region 170-220, which are available in the literature, have been compared with statistical model (SM) calculations. Capture cross sections have been obtained from a coupled-channels code. In the SM, shell corrections in both the level density and the fission barrier have been included. PCN> for these reactions has been extracted by comparing experimental and theoretical ER excitation functions in the energy range ˜5 %-35% above the potential barrier, where known effects of nuclear structure are insignificant. Results: PCN> has been shown to vary with entrance channel mass asymmetry, η (or charge product, ZpZt ), as well as with fissility of the CN, χCN. No parameter has been found to be adequate as a single scaling variable to determine PCN> . Approximate boundaries have been obtained from where PCN> starts deviating from unity. Conclusions: This study quite clearly reveals the limits of applicability of the SM in interpreting experimental observables from fusion reactions involving two massive nuclei. Deviation of PCN> from unity marks the beginning of the domain of dynamical models of fusion. Availability of precise ER cross sections
Depleted Uranium Penetrators : Hazards and Safety
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. S. Rao
1997-01-01
Full Text Available The depleted uranium (DU alloy is a state-of-the-art material for kinetic energy penetrators due to its superior ballistic performance. Several countries use DU penetrators in their main battle tanks. There is no gamma radiation hazard to the crew members from stowage of DO rounds. Open air firing can result in environmental contamination and associated hazards due to airborne particles containing essentially U/sub 3/0/sub 8/ and UO/sub 2/. Inhalation of polluted air only through respirators or nose masks and refraining form ingestion of water or food materials from contaminated environment are safety measures for avoiding exposure to uranium and its toxicity. Infusion of sodium bicarbonate helps in urinary excretion of uranium that may have entered the body.
Weld penetration and defect control. Final report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chin, B.A.
1992-05-15
Highly engineered designs increasingly require the use of improved materials and sophisticated manufacturing techniques. To obtain optimal performance from these engineered products, improved weld properties and joint reliability are a necessarily. This requirement for improved weld performance and reliability has led to the development of high-performance welding systems in which pre-programmed parameters are specified before any welding takes place. These automated systems however lack the ability to compensate for perturbations which arise during the welding process. Hence the need for systems which monitor and control the in-process status of the welding process. This report discusses work carried out on weld penetration indicators and the feasibility of using these indicators for on-line penetration control.
Percutaneous penetration through slightly damaged skin
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Jesper B
2005-01-01
Guidelines for experimental studies of percutaneous penetration prescribe optimal barrier integrity of the skin. The barrier integrity of the skin exposed in occupational or household situations is, however, not always ideal, and skin problems are among the most dominant reasons for absence from...... work. We have therefore evaluated an experimental model for percutaneous penetration through slightly damaged skin. The influence of a slight damage to the skin was evaluated using five pesticides covering a wide range of solubilities. We used an experimental model with static diffusion cells mounted...... with human skin. A slight damage to the barrier integrity was induced by pre-treatment of the skin with sodium lauryl sulphate (SLS) before pesticide exposure. The experimental model with 3 h pre-treatment with SLS (0.1% or 0.3%) assured a significant but controlled damage to the barrier integrity, a damage...
Campbell penetration depth in Fe-based superconductors
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Prommapan, Plegchart [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
2011-01-01
crossing between the magnetic penetration depth and London penetration depth in optimally hold-doped Ba_{0.6}K_{0.4}Fe_{2}As_{2} (BaK122) and isovalent doped BaFe_{2}(As_{0.7}P_{0.3})_{2} (BaP122). These phenomena probably coincide with anomalous Meissner effect reported in pnicitde superconductors [Prozorov et al. (2010b)] however more studies are needed in order to clarify this.
Probable Linezolid-Induced Pancytopenia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nita Lakhani
2005-01-01
Full Text Available A 75-year-old male outpatient with cardiac disease, diabetes, chronic renal insufficiency and iron deficiency anemia was prescribed linezolid 600 mg twice daily for a methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus diabetic foot osteomyelitis. After one week, his blood counts were consistent with baseline values. The patient failed to return for subsequent blood work. On day 26, he was admitted to hospital with acute renal failure secondary to dehydration, and was found to be pancytopenic (erythrocytes 2.5x1012/L, leukocytes 2.9x109/L, platelets 59x109/L, hemoglobin 71 g/L. The patient was transfused, and linezolid was discontinued. His blood counts improved over the week and remained at baseline two months later. The patient's decline in blood counts from baseline levels met previously established criteria for clinical significance. Application of the Naranjo scale indicated a probable relationship between pancytopenia and linezolid. Clinicians should be aware of this rare effect with linezolid, and prospectively identify patients at risk and emphasize weekly hematological monitoring.
The Black Hole Formation Probability
Clausen, Drew; Ott, Christian D
2014-01-01
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. Using the observed BH mass distribution from Galactic X-ray binaries, we derive the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, $P_{\\rm BH}(M_{\\rm ZAMS})$. We explore possible biases in the observed BH mass distribution and find that this sample is best suited for studying BH formation in stars with ZAMS masses in the range $12-...
A Visual Inspection System Development for the Reactor Vessel Bottom-mounted Instrument Penetrations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jeong, Kyung Min; Choi, Young Su; Lee, Sung Uk; Choi, Chang Whan; Seo, Yong Chil; Kim, Chang Hoi; Jeon, Poong Woo; Kim, Seung Ho [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2005-07-01
In April 2003, South Texas Project Unit 1 made a surprising discovery of boron acid leakage from two nozzles from a bare-metal examination of the reactor vessel bottom-mounted instrument penetrations during a routine refueling outage. A small powdery substance about 150mg was found on the outside of two instrument guide penetration nozzles on the bottom of the reactor. The primary coolant water of pressurized water reactors has caused cracking in penetrations with Alloy 600 through a process called primary water stress corrosion cracking. In South Korea, it is scheduled to conduct visual inspection of the outside of instrument guide penetration nozzles on the bottom of PWRs to confirm the integrity of reactor vessel. Inside the bottom head of KSNP, 45 penetration nozzles with the radius of about 7.5cm are mounted. The height of the nozzle located on the center is about 6 and the minimum distance between the nozzles is about 20 cm. In order to inspect the possible leakage of boron acid, two mobile robots are developed and described in this paper.
Avoiding Negative Probabilities in Quantum Mechanics
Nyambuya, Golden Gadzirayi
2013-01-01
As currently understood since its discovery, the bare Klein-Gordon theory consists of negative quantum probabilities which are considered to be physically meaningless if not outright obsolete. Despite this annoying setback, these negative probabilities are what led the great Paul Dirac in 1928 to the esoteric discovery of the Dirac Equation. The Dirac Equation led to one of the greatest advances in our understanding of the physical world. In this reading, we ask the seemingly senseless question, "Do negative probabilities exist in quantum mechanics?" In an effort to answer this question, we arrive at the conclusion that depending on the choice one makes of the quantum probability current, one will obtain negative probabilities. We thus propose a new quantum probability current of the Klein-Gordon theory. This quantum probability current leads directly to positive definite quantum probabilities. Because these negative probabilities are in the bare Klein-Gordon theory, intrinsically a result of negative energie...
Psychophysics of the probability weighting function
Takahashi, Taiki
2011-03-01
A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.
Zhang, Jinqiang; Zhang, Lingli; Yan, Yumei; Li, Shaorong; Xie, Liang; Zhong, Wei; Lv, Jing; Zhang, Xiuhua; Bai, Yu; Cheng, Ziqiang
2015-03-01
Brain metastasis (BM) is increasingly diagnosed in Her2 positive breast cancer (BC) patients. Lack of effective treatment to breast cancer brain metastases (BCBMs) is probably due to inability of the current therapeutic agents to cross the blood-brain barrier. The central nervous system (CNS) response rate in BCBM patients was reported to improve from 2.6%-6% (lapatinib) to 20%-65% (lapatinib in combination with capecitabine). Lapatinib is a poor brain penetrant. In this study, we evaluated the CNS penetration of capecitabine and hoped to interpret the mechanism of the improved CNS response from the pharmacokinetic (PK) perspective. Capecitabine does not have antiproliferative activity and 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) is the active metabolite. Capecitabine was orally administered to mouse returning an unbound brain-to-blood ratio (Kp,uu,brain) at 0.13 and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)-to-unbound blood ratio (Kp,uu,CSF) at 0.29 for 5-FU. Neither free brain nor CSF concentration of 5-FU can achieve antiproliferative concentration for 50% of maximal inhibition of cell proliferation of 4.57 µM. BCBM mice were treated with capecitabine monotherapy or in combination with lapatinib. The Kp,uu,brain value of 5-FU increased to 0.17 in the brain tumor in the presence of lapatinib, which is still far below unity. The calculated free concentration of 5-FU and lapatinib in the brain tumor did not reach the antiproliferative potency and neither treatment showed antitumor activity in the BCBM mice. The CNS penetration of 5-FU in human was predicted based on the penetration in preclinical brain tumor, CSF, and human PK and the predicted free CNS concentration was below the antiproliferative potency. These results suggest that CNS penetration of 5-FU and lapatinib are not desirable and development of a true CNS penetrable therapeutic agent will further improve the response rate for BCBM.
Market penetration of new energy technologies
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Packey, D.J.
1993-02-01
This report examines the characteristics, advantages, disadvantages, and, for some, the mathematical formulas of forecasting methods that can be used to forecast the market penetration of renewable energy technologies. Among the methods studied are subjective estimation, market surveys, historical analogy models, cost models, diffusion models, time-series models, and econometric models. Some of these forecasting methods are more effective than others at different developmental stages of new technologies.
Pseudo skin factor due to partial penetration
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Reynolds, A.C.; Chen, J.C.; Raghavan, R.
1983-10-01
In this study the authors examine the pseudo skin factor due to partial penetration in a two-layer reservoir when only one layer is open to flow. They show that the pseudo skin factor can be correlated as a unique function of three reservoir parameters and in some cases can be accurately correlated as a function of two reservoir parameters. They also present graphs and procedures for estimating the pseudo skin factor.
Pseudo skin factor due to partial penetration
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Reynolds, A.C.; Chen, J.C.; Raghavan, R.
1983-01-01
This study examines the pseudo skin factor due to partial penetration in a 2-layer reservoir when only one layer is open to flow. The pseudo skin factor can be correlated as a unique function of 3 reservoir parameters and in some cases can be correlated accurately as a function of 2 reservoir parameters. Graphs and procedures for estimating the pseudo skin factor are presented. 17 references.
CLINICAL STUDY OF PENETRATING INJURIES OF ABDOMEN
Raghu; Santhosh Babu; Devender
2016-01-01
Penetrating trauma forms an important component of surgical emergencies. The importance of this category becomes further apparent when one realises that most of such trauma victims are essentially healthy people and in the prime of their life. Over the past century, great advances were made in the management of such wounds. The operative management replaced the expectant therapy and reduced mortality rates. So this study is being done to evaluate the various indications for early ...
Penetration in bimodal, polydisperse granular material
Kouraytem, N.; Thoroddsen, S. T.; Marston, J. O.
2016-11-01
We investigate the impact penetration of spheres into granular media which are compositions of two discrete size ranges, thus creating a polydisperse bimodal material. We examine the penetration depth as a function of the composition (volume fractions of the respective sizes) and impact speed. Penetration depths were found to vary between δ =0.5 D0 and δ =7 D0 , which, for mono-modal media only, could be correlated in terms of the total drop height, H =h +δ , as in previous studies, by incorporating correction factors for the packing fraction. Bimodal data can only be collapsed by deriving a critical packing fraction for each mass fraction. The data for the mixed grains exhibit a surprising lubricating effect, which was most significant when the finest grains [ds˜O (30 ) μ m ] were added to the larger particles [dl˜O (200 -500 ) μ m ] , with a size ratio, ɛ =dl/ds , larger than 3 and mass fractions over 25%, despite the increased packing fraction. We postulate that the small grains get between the large grains and reduce their intergrain friction, only when their mass fraction is sufficiently large to prevent them from simply rattling in the voids between the large particles. This is supported by our experimental observations of the largest lubrication effect produced by adding small glass beads to a bed of large sand particles with rough surfaces.
Deep penetration of light into biotissue
Bearden, Edward D.; Wilson, James D.; Zharov, Vladimir P.; Lowery, Curtis L.
2001-07-01
The results of a study of deep (several centimeters) light penetration into biological tissue are presented in order to estimate its significance to potentially photosensitive structures and processes including the fetal eyes. In order to accomplish this goal, samples of various tissues (fat, muscle, and uterus) from surgical patients and autopsies were examined with a double integrating sphere arrangement to determine their optical properties. The results were implemented in a Monte Carlo modeling program. Next, optical fiber probes were inserted into the uterus and abdominal wall of patients undergoing laparoscopic procedures. The fibers were couples to a photomultiplier tube with intervening filters allowing measurements of light penetration at various wavelengths. To determine the feasibility of stimulation in utero, a xenon lamp and waveguide were used to transilluminate the abdomen of several labor patients. Light in the range of 630 to 670 nm where the eye sensitivity and penetration depth are well matched, will likely provide the best chance of visual stimulation. Fetal heart rate, fetal movement, and fetal magnetoencephalography (SQUID) and electroencephalography (EEG) were observed in different studies to determine if stimulation has occurred. Since internal organs and the fetus are completely dark adapted, the amount of light required to simulate in our opinion could be on the order of 10(superscript -8 Watts.
Penetrating spinal injuries and their management
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A Kumar
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Penetrating spinal trauma due to missile/gunshot injuries has been well reported in the literature and has remained the domain of military warfare more often. Civic society′s recent upsurge in gunshot injuries has created a dilemma for the treating neurosurgeon in many ways as their management has always involved certain debatable and controversial issues. Both conservative and surgical management of penetrating spinal injuries (PSI have been practiced widely. The chief neurosurgical concern in these types of firearm injuries is the degree of damage sustained during the bullet traversing through the neural tissue and the after-effects of the same in long term. We had an interesting case of a penetrating bullet injury to cervical spine at C2 vertebral level. He was operated and the bullets were removed from posterior midline approach. Usually, the management of such cases differs from region to region depending on the preference of the surgeon but still certain common principles are followed world over. Thus, we realized the need to review the literature regarding spinal injuries with special emphasis on PSI and to study the recent guidelines for their treatment in light of our case.
Penetrating eye injuries in road traffic accidents.
Patel, B C; Morgan, L H
1988-03-01
A review of all penetrating eye injuries treated by the Manchester Eye Hospital over four years (1 February 1982-31 January 1986) was undertaken. One hundred and ninety-six penetrating eye injuries were seen, of which 16 (8.2%) were due to road traffic accidents. Eight patients (nine eyes) were seen in the 12 months prior to the introduction of the seat-belt legislation on 1 February 1983. None of these patients was wearing a seat-belt whereas two of the eight patients (10 eyes) seen after the seat-belt legislation were. Both these patients suffered severe visual loss due to intraocular glass from shattered windscreens. Three patients had bilateral penetrating eye injuries, one before and two after the seat-belt legislation. Two of the nine eyes involved prior to the legislation and three of the 10 eyes after the legislation had an eventual visual acuity of 6/12 or better. In the majority of patients, failure to wear seat-belts or defective use is to blame. Flying glass from shattered toughened windscreens is a preventable danger. Nine of the 16 patients were first seen in the general accident and emergency department and, of these, seven did not have visual acuities recorded prior to referral to an ophthalmologist. The importance of measurement of the visual acuity and detection of an afferent pupillary defect is stressed based on these findings.
Penetration in bimodal, polydisperse granular material
Kouraytem, N.
2016-11-07
We investigate the impact penetration of spheres into granular media which are compositions of two discrete size ranges, thus creating a polydisperse bimodal material. We examine the penetration depth as a function of the composition (volume fractions of the respective sizes) and impact speed. Penetration depths were found to vary between delta = 0.5D(0) and delta = 7D(0), which, for mono-modal media only, could be correlated in terms of the total drop height, H = h + delta, as in previous studies, by incorporating correction factors for the packing fraction. Bimodal data can only be collapsed by deriving a critical packing fraction for each mass fraction. The data for the mixed grains exhibit a surprising lubricating effect, which was most significant when the finest grains [d(s) similar to O(30) mu m] were added to the larger particles [d(l) similar to O(200 - 500) mu m], with a size ratio, epsilon = d(l)/d(s), larger than 3 and mass fractions over 25%, despite the increased packing fraction. We postulate that the small grains get between the large grains and reduce their intergrain friction, only when their mass fraction is sufficiently large to prevent them from simply rattling in the voids between the large particles. This is supported by our experimental observations of the largest lubrication effect produced by adding small glass beads to a bed of large sand particles with rough surfaces.
Cutaneous mucormycosis secondary to penetrative trauma.
Zahoor, Bilal; Kent, Stephen; Wall, Daryl
2016-07-01
Mucormycosis is a rare but serious sequelae of penetrating trauma [1-5]. In spite of aggressive management, mortality remains high due to dissemination of infection. We completed a review of literature to determine the most optimal treatment of cutaneous mucormycosis which occurs secondary to penetrating trauma. We completed a review regarding the management of mucormycosis in trauma patients. We selected a total of 36 reports, of which 18 were case-based, for review. Surgical debridement is a primary predictor of improved outcomes in the treatment of mucormycosis [3,6,7]. Anti-fungal therapy, especially lipid soluble formulation of Amphotericin B, is helpful as an adjunct or when surgical debridement has been maximally achieved. Further research is needed to fully evaluate the impact of topical dressings; negative pressure wound therapy is helpful. An aggressive and early surgical approach, even at the expense of disfigurement, is necessary to reduce mortality in the setting of cutaneous mucormycosis that results from penetrating trauma [4,8,9]. Anti-fungal therapy and negative pressure wound therapy are formidable adjuncts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Penetration Testing Professional Ethics: a conceptual model and taxonomy
Justin Pierce; Ashley Jones; Matthew Warren
2006-01-01
In an environment where commercial software is continually patched to correct security flaws, penetration testing can provide organisations with a realistic assessment of their security posture. Penetration testing uses the same principles as criminal hackers to penetrate corporate networks and thereby verify the presence of software vulnerabilities. Network administrators can use the results of a penetration test to correct flaws and improve overall security. The use of hacking techniques...
Penetration Testing Curriculum Development in Practice
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chengcheng Li
2015-04-01
Full Text Available As both the frequency and the severity of network breaches have increased in recent years, it is essential that cybersecurity is incorporated into the core of business operations. Evidence from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012 indicates that there is, and will continue to be, a severe shortage of cybersecurity professionals nationwide throughout the next decade. To fill this job shortage we need a workforce with strong hands-on experience in the latest technologies and software tools to catch up with the rapid evolution of network technologies. It is vital that the IT professionals possess up-to-date technical skills and think and act one step ahead of the cyber criminals who are constantly probing and exploring system vulnerabilities. There is no perfect security mechanism that can defeat all the cyber-attacks; the traditional defensive security mechanism will eventually fail to the pervasive zero-day attacks. However, there are steps to follow to reduce an organization’s vulnerability to cyber-attacks and to mitigate damages. Active security tests of the network from a cyber-criminal’s perspective can identify system vulnerabilities that may lead to future breaches. “If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. But if you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of hundred battles” (Sun, 2013. Penetration testing is a discipline within cybersecurity that focuses on identifying and exploiting the vulnerabilities of a network, eventually obtaining access to the critical business information. The pentesters, the security professionals who perform penetration testing, or ethical hackers, break the triad of information security - Confidentiality, Integrity, and Accountability (CIA - as if they were a cyber-criminal. The purpose of ethical hacking or penetration testing is to know what the “enemy” can do and then generate a
Developing High PV Penetration Cases for Frequency Response Study of U.S. Western Interconnection
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tan, Jin; Zhang, Yingchen; Veda, Santosh; Elgindy, Tarek; Liu, Yilu
2017-05-11
Recent large penetrations of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and the inertial characteristics of inverter-based generation technologies have caught the attention of those in the electric power industry in the United States. This paper presents a systematic approach to developing test cases of high penetrations of PV for the Western Interconnection. First, to examine the accuracy of the base case model, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) model is validated by using measurement data from synchronized phasor measurement units. Based on the 2022 Light Spring case, we developed four high PV penetration cases for the WECC system that are of interest to the industry: 5% PV+15 % wind, 25% PV+15% wind, 45% PV+15% wind, 65% PV+15% wind). Additionally, a method to project PV is proposed that is based on collected, realistic PV distribution information, including the current and future PV power plant locations and penetrations in the WECC system. Both the utility-scale PV plant and residential rooftop PV are included in this study.
2015-01-01
We quantify mechanical processes common to soil penetration by earthworms and growing plant roots, including the energetic requirements for soil plastic displacement. The basic mechanical model considers cavity expansion into a plastic wet soil involving wedging by root tips or earthworms via cone-like penetration followed by cavity expansion due to pressurized earthworm hydroskeleton or root radial growth. The mechanical stresses and resulting soil strains determine the mechanical energy required for bioturbation under different soil hydro-mechanical conditions for a realistic range of root/earthworm geometries. Modeling results suggest that higher soil water content and reduced clay content reduce the strain energy required for soil penetration. The critical earthworm or root pressure increases with increased diameter of root or earthworm, however, results are insensitive to the cone apex (shape of the tip). The invested mechanical energy per unit length increase with increasing earthworm and plant root diameters, whereas mechanical energy per unit of displaced soil volume decreases with larger diameters. The study provides a quantitative framework for estimating energy requirements for soil penetration work done by earthworms and plant roots, and delineates intrinsic and external mechanical limits for bioturbation processes. Estimated energy requirements for earthworm biopore networks are linked to consumption of soil organic matter and suggest that earthworm populations are likely to consume a significant fraction of ecosystem net primary production to sustain their subterranean activities. PMID:26087130
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tan, Jin; Zhang, Yingchen; Veda, Santosh; Elgindy, Tarek; Liu, Yilu
2017-04-11
Recent large penetrations of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and the inertial characteristics of inverter-based generation technologies have caught the attention of those in the electric power industry in the United States. This paper presents a systematic approach to developing test cases of high penetrations of PV for the Western Interconnection. First, to examine the accuracy of the base case model, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) model is validated by using measurement data from synchronized phasor measurement units. Based on the 2022 Light Spring case, we developed four high PV penetration cases for the WECC system that are of interest to the industry: 5% PV+15 % wind, 25% PV+15% wind, 45% PV+15% wind, 65% PV+15% wind). Additionally, a method to project PV is proposed that is based on collected, realistic PV distribution information, including the current and future PV power plant locations and penetrations in the WECC system. Both the utility-scale PV plant and residential rooftop PV are included in this study.
Ruiz, Siul; Or, Dani; Schymanski, Stanislaus J
2015-01-01
We quantify mechanical processes common to soil penetration by earthworms and growing plant roots, including the energetic requirements for soil plastic displacement. The basic mechanical model considers cavity expansion into a plastic wet soil involving wedging by root tips or earthworms via cone-like penetration followed by cavity expansion due to pressurized earthworm hydroskeleton or root radial growth. The mechanical stresses and resulting soil strains determine the mechanical energy required for bioturbation under different soil hydro-mechanical conditions for a realistic range of root/earthworm geometries. Modeling results suggest that higher soil water content and reduced clay content reduce the strain energy required for soil penetration. The critical earthworm or root pressure increases with increased diameter of root or earthworm, however, results are insensitive to the cone apex (shape of the tip). The invested mechanical energy per unit length increase with increasing earthworm and plant root diameters, whereas mechanical energy per unit of displaced soil volume decreases with larger diameters. The study provides a quantitative framework for estimating energy requirements for soil penetration work done by earthworms and plant roots, and delineates intrinsic and external mechanical limits for bioturbation processes. Estimated energy requirements for earthworm biopore networks are linked to consumption of soil organic matter and suggest that earthworm populations are likely to consume a significant fraction of ecosystem net primary production to sustain their subterranean activities.
Electrical recording of plant penetration by western flower thrips.
Harrewijn, P.; Tjallingii, W.F.; Mollema, C.
1996-01-01
Plant penetration by western flower thrips (Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande)) was analysed with the electrical penetration graph technique (EPG, DC-system). Thrips attached to a gold wire were included in an electrical circuit to record EPGs when penetrating the plant tissues with their
Transient stability probability evaluation of power system incorporating with wind farm and SMES
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fang, Jiakun; Miao, Lu; Wen, Jinyu
2013-01-01
Large scale renewable power generation brings great challenges to the power system operation and stabilization. Energy storage is one of the most important technologies to face the challenges. This paper proposes a method for transient stability probability evaluation of power system with wind farm......, together with the cost function, the coil size is optimized economically....... the probability indices. With the proposed method based on Monte-Carlo simulation and bisection method, system stability is "measured". Quantitative relationship of penetration level, SMES coil size and system stability is established. Considering the stability versus coil size to be the production curve...
The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner
Foster, Colin
2012-01-01
This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)
Conditional probability modulates visual search efficiency.
Cort, Bryan; Anderson, Britt
2013-01-01
We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability-the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues-varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.
Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bryan eCort
2013-10-01
Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.
The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner
Foster, Colin
2012-01-01
This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)
Characterisation of tree root penetration in bedrock and its impact on slope stability
Zhun, Mao; Selli, Lavinia; Guastini, Enrico; Preti, Federico
2014-05-01
The anchorage effect of tree root penetration in bedrock against shallow landslides has uniquely been discussed in conceptual models, but seldom been measured and characterised in fieldsite. Using both the ARBORADIX™ and the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) techniques, we aims at (i) mapping the spatial distribution of tree roots penetrating in bedrock in situ, (ii) estimating their contributions to slope stabilization and (iii) comparing the two detection methods. The experimental site is located on Pomezzana (Lu), Tuscany Apennine, Italy, where a great shallow landslide occurred in 1996 following periods of intense precipitation events. On aslope of45°, the studied forest has a density of 1800 trees/ha, mainly composed of black alder Alnus glutinosa L. (95%). Root mapping was conducted in two plots close to each other: one within an intact zone with no landslide damage; the other within a restored zone since the landslide. In each plot, two repetitions were conducted in dense tree clusters and in gaps, respectively. Preliminary results showed that the density and spatial distribution of roots penetrating into bedrock were significantly associated to the site chronology (intact vs restored), stand density and tree positions. Thicker roots had much higher probability of penetrating into rocks. Each of detection methods showed it advantages and drawbacks. This study, highlighting the importance of the mechanical role of thick roots in slope stabilization, may significantly improve our understanding in the use of vegetation in ecological engineering.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
钟绍鹏; 邓卫
2015-01-01
A reliability-based stochastic system optimum congestion pricing (SSOCP) model with endogenous market penetration and compliance rate in an advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) environment was proposed. All travelers were divided into two classes. The first guided travelers were referred to as the equipped travelers who follow ATIS advice, while the second unguided travelers were referred to as the unequipped travelers and the equipped travelers who do not follow the ATIS advice (also referred to as non-complied travelers). Travelers were assumed to take travel time, congestion pricing, and travel time reliability into account when making travel route choice decisions. In order to arrive at on time, travelers needed to allow for a safety margin to their trip. The market penetration of ATIS was determined by a continuous increasing function of the information benefit, and the ATIS compliance rate of equipped travelers was given as the probability of the actually experienced travel costs of guided travelers less than or equal to those of unguided travelers. The analysis results could enhance our understanding of the effect of travel demand level and travel time reliability confidence level on the ATIS market penetration and compliance rate; and the effect of travel time perception variation of guided and unguided travelers on the mean travel cost savings (MTCS) of the equipped travelers, the ATIS market penetration, compliance rate, and the total network effective travel time (TNETT).
Radon penetration of concrete slab cracks, joints, pipe penetrations, and sealants.
Nielson, K K; Rogers, V C; Holt, R B; Pugh, T D; Grondzik, W A; de Meijer, R J
1997-10-01
Radon movement through 12 test slabs with different cracks, pipe penetrations, cold joints, masonry blocks, sealants, and tensile stresses characterized the importance of these anomalous structural domains. Diffusive and advective radon transport were measured with steady-state air pressure differences controlled throughout the deltaP = 0 to 60 Pa range. Diffusion coefficients (deltaP = 0) initially averaged 6.5 x 10(-8) m2 s(-1) among nine slabs with only 8% standard deviation, but increased due to drying by 0.16% per day over a 2-y period to an average of 2.0 x 10(-7) m2 s(-1). An asphalt coating reduced diffusion sixfold but an acrylic surface sealant had no effect. Diffusion was 42 times higher in solid masonry blocks than in concrete and was not affected by small cracks. Advective transport (deltaP permeability), pipe penetrations, and caulked gaps, but was significant for cracks, disturbed pipe penetrations, cold joints, masonry blocks, and concrete under tensile stress. Crack areas calculated to be as small as 10(-7) m2 significantly increased radon advection. Algebraic expressions predict air velocity and effective crack width from enhanced radon transport and air pressures. Masonry blocks, open cracks, and slab cold joints enhance radon penetration but stressed slabs, undisturbed pipe penetrations, and sealed cracks may not.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sarunyoo Songkro
2009-08-01
Full Text Available Transdermal drug delivery has attracted considerable attention over the past 2-3 decades in regard of its many potentialadvantages. However, the role of the skin as a protective barrier renders skin absorption of most drugs problematic. Therefore,skin penetration enhancers are frequently used in the field of transdermal drug delivery in order to reversibly reduce thebarrier function of the stratum corneum, the outermost layer of the skin. To date, a wide range of chemical compounds havebeen shown to enhance the skin penetration of therapeutic drugs. This review presents a critical account of the most commonlyused chemical penetration enhancers (fatty acids and surfactants, and some newer classes of chemical enhancers (terpenes,polymers, monoolein, oxazolidinones, with emphasis on their efficacy, mechanism of action, and skin irritation potential. Thisreview also discusses the traditional and more recently developed methods for the screening and evaluation of chemical penetration enhancers, and addresses the continuing problems in the rational selection of a chemical penetration enhancer for a specific drug to be delivered via the transdermal route.
Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability
Odafe, Victor U.
2011-01-01
Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…
Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations
López Puga, Jorge
2014-01-01
The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.
47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.
2010-10-01
... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623... Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be computed to no less than three significant digits. Probabilities will be truncated to the number of...
Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd
objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation...... of subjective probabilities in subjects with certain Non-Expected Utility preference representations that satisfy weak conditions that we identify....
Inferring Beliefs as Subjectively Imprecise Probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.;
2012-01-01
We propose a method for estimating subjective beliefs, viewed as a subjective probability distribution. The key insight is to characterize beliefs as a parameter to be estimated from observed choices in a well-defined experimental task and to estimate that parameter as a random coefficient. The e...... probabilities are indeed best characterized as probability distributions with non-zero variance....
Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd;
report the true subjective probability of a binary event, even under Subjective Expected Utility. To address this one can “calibrate” inferences about true subjective probabilities from elicited subjective probabilities over binary events, recognizing the incentives that risk averse agents have...
Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations
López Puga, Jorge
2014-01-01
The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.
The trajectory of the target probability effect.
Hon, Nicholas; Yap, Melvin J; Jabar, Syaheed B
2013-05-01
The effect of target probability on detection times is well-established: Even when detection accuracy is high, lower probability targets are detected more slowly than higher probability ones. Although this target probability effect on detection times has been well-studied, one aspect of it has remained largely unexamined: How the effect develops over the span of an experiment. Here, we investigated this issue with two detection experiments that assessed different target probability ratios. Conventional block segment analysis and linear mixed-effects modeling converged on two key findings. First, we found that the magnitude of the target probability effect increases as one progresses through a block of trials. Second, we found, by examining the trajectories of the low- and high-probability targets, that this increase in effect magnitude was driven by the low-probability targets. Specifically, we found that low-probability targets were detected more slowly as a block of trials progressed. Performance to high-probability targets, on the other hand, was largely invariant across the block. The latter finding is of particular interest because it cannot be reconciled with accounts that propose that the target probability effect is driven by the high-probability targets.
Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability
Odafe, Victor U.
2011-01-01
Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…
Extreme value statistics for two-dimensional convective penetration in a pre-main sequence star
Pratt, J.; Baraffe, I.; Goffrey, T.; Constantino, T.; Viallet, M.; Popov, M. V.; Walder, R.; Folini, D.
2017-08-01
Context. In the interior of stars, a convectively unstable zone typically borders a zone that is stable to convection. Convective motions can penetrate the boundary between these zones, creating a layer characterized by intermittent convective mixing, and gradual erosion of the density and temperature stratification. Aims: We examine a penetration layer formed between a central radiative zone and a large convection zone in the deep interior of a young low-mass star. Using the Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC) to simulate two-dimensional compressible stellar convection in a spherical geometry over long times, we produce statistics that characterize the extent and impact of convective penetration in this layer. Methods: We apply extreme value theory to the maximal extent of convective penetration at any time. We compare statistical results from simulations which treat non-local convection, throughout a large portion of the stellar radius, with simulations designed to treat local convection in a small region surrounding the penetration layer. For each of these situations, we compare simulations of different resolution, which have different velocity magnitudes. We also compare statistical results between simulations that radiate energy at a constant rate to those that allow energy to radiate from the stellar surface according to the local surface temperature. Results: Based on the frequency and depth of penetrating convective structures, we observe two distinct layers that form between the convection zone and the stable radiative zone. We show that the probability density function of the maximal depth of convective penetration at any time corresponds closely in space with the radial position where internal waves are excited. We find that the maximal penetration depth can be modeled by a Weibull distribution with a small shape parameter. Using these results, and building on established scalings for diffusion enhanced by large-scale convective motions, we
Probability of Detection (POD) Demonstration Transferability
Parker, Bradford H.
2011-01-01
NASA Special Level POD demonstration tests are typically performed on flat plates of a single material containing fatigue cracks with aspect rations between 0.3 and 0.5. Subsequent fracture mechanics analyses consider aspect ratios that range from 0.1 to 0.5. There is debate within the NDE community about the detectability of shallow cracks associated with NASA Special Level penetrant inspections that are routinely performed by propellant tank manufactures. The objective of the task is to investigate effect of crack aspect ratio on POD crack sizes for the penetrant inspection technique.
Penetration Testing Professional Ethics: a conceptual model and taxonomy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Justin Pierce
2006-05-01
Full Text Available In an environment where commercial software is continually patched to correct security flaws, penetration testing can provide organisations with a realistic assessment of their security posture. Penetration testing uses the same principles as criminal hackers to penetrate corporate networks and thereby verify the presence of software vulnerabilities. Network administrators can use the results of a penetration test to correct flaws and improve overall security. The use of hacking techniques, however, raises several ethical questions that centre on the integrity of the tester to maintain professional distance and uphold the profession. This paper discusses the ethics of penetration testing and presents our conceptual model and revised taxonomy.
Paraconsistent Probabilities: Consistency, Contradictions and Bayes’ Theorem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juliana Bueno-Soler
2016-09-01
Full Text Available This paper represents the first steps towards constructing a paraconsistent theory of probability based on the Logics of Formal Inconsistency (LFIs. We show that LFIs encode very naturally an extension of the notion of probability able to express sophisticated probabilistic reasoning under contradictions employing appropriate notions of conditional probability and paraconsistent updating, via a version of Bayes’ theorem for conditionalization. We argue that the dissimilarity between the notions of inconsistency and contradiction, one of the pillars of LFIs, plays a central role in our extended notion of probability. Some critical historical and conceptual points about probability theory are also reviewed.
An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)
Gillies, Donald
2012-01-01
This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma
Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes
Ibe, Oliver
2014-01-01
The long-awaited revision of Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random Processes expands on the central components that made the first edition a classic. The title is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability t
Probability of Failure in Random Vibration
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
1988-01-01
Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...
Market penetration scenarios for fuel cell vehicles
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Thomas, C.E.; James, B.D.; Lomax, F.D. Jr. [Directed Technologies, Inc., Arlington, VA (United States)
1997-12-31
Fuel cell vehicles may create the first mass market for hydrogen as an energy carrier. Directed Technologies, Inc., working with the US Department of Energy hydrogen systems analysis team, has developed a time-dependent computer market penetration model. This model estimates the number of fuel cell vehicles that would be purchased over time as a function of their cost and the cost of hydrogen relative to the costs of competing vehicles and fuels. The model then calculates the return on investment for fuel cell vehicle manufacturers and hydrogen fuel suppliers. The model also projects the benefit/cost ratio for government--the ratio of societal benefits such as reduced oil consumption, reduced urban air pollution and reduced greenhouse gas emissions to the government cost for assisting the development of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The purpose of this model is to assist industry and government in choosing the best investment strategies to achieve significant return on investment and to maximize benefit/cost ratios. The model can illustrate trends and highlight the sensitivity of market penetration to various parameters such as fuel cell efficiency, cost, weight, and hydrogen cost. It can also illustrate the potential benefits of successful R and D and early demonstration projects. Results will be shown comparing the market penetration and return on investment estimates for direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles compared to fuel cell vehicles with onboard fuel processors including methanol steam reformers and gasoline partial oxidation systems. Other alternative fueled vehicles including natural gas hybrids, direct injection diesels and hydrogen-powered internal combustion hybrid vehicles will also be analyzed.
Incomplete penetrance in mitochondrial optic neuropathies.
Caporali, Leonardo; Maresca, Alessandra; Capristo, Mariantonietta; Del Dotto, Valentina; Tagliavini, Francesca; Valentino, Maria Lucia; La Morgia, Chiara; Carelli, Valerio
2017-07-14
Incomplete penetrance characterizes the two most frequent inherited optic neuropathies, Leber's Hereditary Optic Neuropathy (LHON) and dominant optic atrophy (DOA), due to genetic errors in the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and the nuclear DNA (nDNA), respectively. For LHON, compelling evidence has accumulated on the complex interplay of mtDNA haplogroups and environmental interacting factors, whereas the nDNA remains essentially non informative. However, a compensatory mechanism of activated mitochondrial biogenesis and increased mtDNA copy number, possibly driven by a permissive nDNA background, is documented in LHON; when successful it maintains unaffected the mutation carriers, but in some individuals it might be hampered by tobacco smoking or other environmental factors, resulting in disease onset. In females, mitochondrial biogenesis is promoted and maintained within the compensatory range by estrogens, partially explaining the gender bias in LHON. Concerning DOA, none of the above mechanisms has been fully explored, thus mtDNA haplogroups, environmental factors such as tobacco and alcohol, and further nDNA variants may all participate as protective factors or, on the contrary, favor disease expression and severity. Next generation sequencing, complemented by transcriptomics and proteomics, may provide some answers in the next future, even if the multifactorial model that seems to apply to incomplete penetrance in mitochondrial optic neuropathies remains problematic, and careful stratification of patients will play a key role for data interpretation. The deep understanding of which factors impinge on incomplete penetrance may shed light on the pathogenic mechanisms leading to optic nerve atrophy, on their possible compensation and, thus, on development of therapeutic strategies. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Kali Linux assuring security by penetration testing
Ali, Shakeel; Allen, Lee
2014-01-01
Written as an interactive tutorial, this book covers the core of Kali Linux with real-world examples and step-by-step instructions to provide professional guidelines and recommendations for you. The book is designed in a simple and intuitive manner that allows you to explore the whole Kali Linux testing process or study parts of it individually.If you are an IT security professional who has a basic knowledge of Unix/Linux operating systems, including an awareness of information security factors, and want to use Kali Linux for penetration testing, then this book is for you.
Premium Efficiency Motors And Market Penetration Policy
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Benhaddadi, Mohamed; Olivier, Guy
2010-09-15
This paper illustrates the induced enormous energy saving potential, permitted by using high-efficiency motors. Furthermore, the most important barriers to larger high-efficiency motors utilization are identified, and some incentives recommendations are given to overcome identified impediments. The authors consider that there is a strong case to enhance incentives policies for larger market penetration. The US Energy Policy Act and the Canadian Energy Efficient Act have lead to North American leadership on motor efficiency implementation. North America is not on the leading edge for energy saving and conservation. Motor efficiency is an exception that should be at least maintained.
[Penetrating ocular trauma with intraocular foreign body].
Musat, O; Ochinciuc, Uliana; Gutu, Tatiana; Cristescu, T R; Coman, Corina
2012-01-01
We present the case of a 65 years old pacient which was admitted for the sudden decrease of visual acuity in the left eye, accompanied by ocular pain and conjunctival hiperemia, simptoms appeared after an ocular trauma. After the clinical and paraclinical examination we determined the diagnosis of OS: Penetrating ocular trauma with retention of a foreign body; posttraumatic cataract. Surgical treatement was warrented and we performed OS : Facoemulsification + PFK implant in sulcus + 23 Ga posterior vitrectomy + peeling of the posterior hyaloid membrane + extraction of the foreign body + LASER endofotocoagulation + transscleral cryotherapy + SF6 gas injection. The post-operatory evolution was favorable.
Aerodynamic Jump for Long Rod Penetrators
Mark L. Bundy
2000-01-01
Aerodynamic jump for a non-spinning kinetic energy penetrator is neither a discontinuous change in the ,direction of motion at the origin of free night, nor is it the converse, i.e. a cumulativer~direc4on over a domain of infinite extent. Rather aerodynamic jump, for such a projectile, is a localised redirection of the centre of gravity motion, caused ~ the force of lift due to yaw over ther4latively short region from entry into free flight until the yaw reaches its first maximum. The primary...
Suicide bomb attack causing penetrating craniocerebral injury
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Manzar Hussain; Muhammad Ehsan Bari
2013-01-01
Penetrating cerebral injuries caused by foreign bodies are rare in civilian neurosurgical trauma,although there are various reports of blast or gunshot injuries in warfare due to multiple foreign bodies like pellets and nails.In our case,a 30-year-old man presented to neurosurgery clinic with signs and symptoms of right-sided weakness after suicide bomb attack.The skull X-ray showed a single intracranial nail.Small craniotomy was done and the nail was removed with caution to avoid injury to surrounding normal brain tissue.At 6 months' follow-up his right-sided power improved to against gravity.
Penetrating abdominal injuries in children in Nigeria.
Ameh, E A; Nmadu, P T
1999-09-01
This is a report of a retrospective study of 24 children managed for penetrating abdominal injury over 10 years, and it represents 34% of all abdominal injuries in children in that period. Falls onto sharp objects within and around the home were responsible for ten of the injuries, seven were injured by animal horns and four were sporting injuries. Violence and road traffic accidents were uncommon. Most patients (67%) had evisceration of omentum or intestine, and one of these was found at laparotomy to have a jejuno-jejunal intussusception. Seven children had injury to hollow viscera. There were three deaths, one each from overwhelming sepsis, tetanus and haemorrhage.
Penetrating wounds of the head and neck.
Jahrsdoerfer, R A; Johns, M E; Cantrell, R W
1979-12-01
Wounding capability of bullets is primarily releated to velocity. Bullet mass and shape, and specific gravity of body tissues being struck by the missile, are lesser factors. Seventy cases of penetrating wounds of the head and neck were treated during a six-year period. Vascular injuries were more common with neck wounds, while face and head injuries (extracranial) were similar to maxillofacial trauma. It is recognized that hemorrhage at the base of the skull is difficult to treat, and contemporary training in temporal bone and base of skull surgery is mandatory for the critical management of these wounds.
Retained crossbow bolt after penetrating facial trauma.
Shah, Manan U; Sridhara, Shankar K; Wolf, Jeffrey S; Ambro, Bryan T
2016-01-01
We present an unusual case of a retained crossbow bolt in the maxillofacial area of a 31-year-old man. While crossbow injuries are rare, this case is of interest because otolaryngologists are often faced with treating retained foreign objects after penetrating facial trauma. These cases are difficult to manage because of the complexity and variety of injuries that can occur during both the initial trauma and the removal. We focus on the management of the bolt's removal and provide a brief discussion of the relevant literature on crossbow injuries to the head and neck.
Hacking with Kali practical penetration testing techniques
Broad, James
2013-01-01
Hacking with Kali introduces you the most current distribution of the de facto standard tool for Linux pen testing. Starting with use of the Kali live CD and progressing through installation on hard drives, thumb drives and SD cards, author James Broad walks you through creating a custom version of the Kali live distribution. You'll learn how to configure networking components, storage devices and system services such as DHCP and web services. Once you're familiar with the basic components of the software, you'll learn how to use Kali through the phases of the penetration testing lifecycle
Mastering Kali Linux for advanced penetration testing
Beggs, Robert W
2014-01-01
This book provides an overview of the kill chain approach to penetration testing, and then focuses on using Kali Linux to provide examples of how this methodology is applied in the real world. After describing the underlying concepts, step-by-step examples are provided that use selected tools to demonstrate the techniques. If you are an IT professional or a security consultant who wants to maximize the success of your network testing using some of the advanced features of Kali Linux, then this book is for you. This book will teach you how to become an expert in the pre-engagement, management,
Generation Expansion Planning with High Penetration of Wind Power
Sharan, Ishan; Balasubramanian, R.
2016-08-01
Worldwide thrust is being provided in generation of electricity from wind. Planning for the developmental needs of wind based power has to be consistent with the objective and basic framework of overall resource planning. The operational issues associated with the integration of wind power must be addressed at the planning stage. Lack of co-ordinated planning of wind turbine generators, conventional generating units and expansion of the transmission system may lead to curtailment of wind power due to transmission inadequacy or operational constraints. This paper presents a generation expansion planning model taking into account fuel transportation and power transmission constraints, while addressing the operational issues associated with the high penetration of wind power. For analyzing the operational issues, security constrained unit commitment algorithm is embedded in the integrated generation and transmission expansion planning model. The integrated generation and transmission expansion planning problem has been formulated as a mixed integer linear problem involving both binary and continuous variables in GAMS. The model has been applied to the expansion planning of a real system to illustrate the proposed approach.
Penetration and growth of DPPC/DHPC bicelles inside the stratum corneum of the skin.
Barbosa-Barros, L; de la Maza, A; Estelrich, J; Linares, A M; Feliz, M; Walther, P; Pons, R; López, O
2008-06-03
The effect of dipalmitoyl phosphatidylcholine (DPPC)/dihexanoyl phosphatidylcholine (DHPC) bicelles on the microstructure of pig stratum corneum (SC) in vitro was evaluated. The physicochemical characterization of these nanoaggregates revealed small disks with diameters around 15 nm and a thickness of 5.4 nm. Upon dilution, the bicelles grow and transform into vesicles. Cryogenic scanning electron microscopy (cryo-SEM) images of the SC pieces treated with this system showed vesicles of about 200 nm and lamellar-like structures in the intercellular lipid areas. These vesicles probably resulted from the growth and molecular rearrangement of the DPPC/DHPC bicelles after penetrating the SC. The presence of lamellar-like structures is ascribed to the interaction of the lipids from bicelles with the SC lipids. The bicellar system used is suitable to penetrate the skin SC and to reinforce the intercellular lipid areas, constituting a promising tool for skin applications.
Microbial Penetration through Nutrient-Saturated Berea Sandstone.
Jenneman, G E; McInerney, M J; Knapp, R M
1985-08-01
Penetration times and penetration rates for a motile Bacillus strain growing in nutrient-saturated Berea sandstone cores were determined. The rate of penetration was essentially independent of permeabilities above 100 mdarcys and rapidly declined for permeabilities below 100 mdarcys. It was found that these penetration rates could be grouped into two statistically distinct classes consisting of rates for permeabilities above 100 mdarcys and rates for those below 100 mdarcys. Instantaneous penetration rates were found to be zero order with respect to core length for cores with permeabilities above 100 mdarcys and first order with respect to core length for cores with permeabilities below 100 mdarcys. The maximum observed penetration rate was 0.47 cm . h, and the slowest was 0.06 cm . h; however, these rates may be underestimates of the true penetration rate, since the observed rates included the time required for growth in the flask as well as the core. The relationship of penetration time to the square of the length of the core suggested that cells penetrated high-permeability cores as a band and low-permeability cores in a diffuse fashion. The motile Enterobacter aerogenes strain penetrated Berea sandstone cores three to eight times faster than did the nonmotile Klebsiella pneumoniae strain when cores of comparable length and permeability were used. A penetration mechanism based entirely on motility predicted penetration times that were in agreement with the observed penetration times for motile strains. The fact that nonmotile strains penetrated the cores suggested that filamentous or unrestricted growth, or both, may also be important.
Integrated statistical modelling of spatial landslide probability
Mergili, M.; Chu, H.-J.
2015-09-01
Statistical methods are commonly employed to estimate spatial probabilities of landslide release at the catchment or regional scale. Travel distances and impact areas are often computed by means of conceptual mass point models. The present work introduces a fully automated procedure extending and combining both concepts to compute an integrated spatial landslide probability: (i) the landslide inventory is subset into release and deposition zones. (ii) We employ a simple statistical approach to estimate the pixel-based landslide release probability. (iii) We use the cumulative probability density function of the angle of reach of the observed landslide pixels to assign an impact probability to each pixel. (iv) We introduce the zonal probability i.e. the spatial probability that at least one landslide pixel occurs within a zone of defined size. We quantify this relationship by a set of empirical curves. (v) The integrated spatial landslide probability is defined as the maximum of the release probability and the product of the impact probability and the zonal release probability relevant for each pixel. We demonstrate the approach with a 637 km2 study area in southern Taiwan, using an inventory of 1399 landslides triggered by the typhoon Morakot in 2009. We observe that (i) the average integrated spatial landslide probability over the entire study area corresponds reasonably well to the fraction of the observed landside area; (ii) the model performs moderately well in predicting the observed spatial landslide distribution; (iii) the size of the release zone (or any other zone of spatial aggregation) influences the integrated spatial landslide probability to a much higher degree than the pixel-based release probability; (iv) removing the largest landslides from the analysis leads to an enhanced model performance.
Final Technical Report: Distributed Controls for High Penetrations of Renewables
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Byrne, Raymond H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Neely, Jason C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rashkin, Lee J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Trudnowski, Daniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wilson, David G. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-12-01
The goal of this effort was to apply four potential control analysis/design approaches to the design of distributed grid control systems to address the impact of latency and communications uncertainty with high penetrations of photovoltaic (PV) generation. The four techniques considered were: optimal fixed structure control; Nyquist stability criterion; vector Lyapunov analysis; and Hamiltonian design methods. A reduced order model of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) developed for the Matlab Power Systems Toolbox (PST) was employed for the study, as well as representative smaller systems (e.g., a two-area, three-area, and four-area power system). Excellent results were obtained with the optimal fixed structure approach, and the methodology we developed was published in a journal article. This approach is promising because it offers a method for designing optimal control systems with the feedback signals available from Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) data as opposed to full state feedback or the design of an observer. The Nyquist approach inherently handles time delay and incorporates performance guarantees (e.g., gain and phase margin). We developed a technique that works for moderate sized systems, but the approach does not scale well to extremely large system because of computational complexity. The vector Lyapunov approach was applied to a two area model to demonstrate the utility for modeling communications uncertainty. Application to large power systems requires a method to automatically expand/contract the state space and partition the system so that communications uncertainty can be considered. The Hamiltonian Surface Shaping and Power Flow Control (HSSPFC) design methodology was selected to investigate grid systems for energy storage requirements to support high penetration of variable or stochastic generation (such as wind and PV) and loads. This method was applied to several small system models.
Deep Penetration of Spudcan Foundation into Double Layered Soils
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LIU Jun; HU Yu-xia; KONG Xian-jing
2005-01-01
The spudcan foundation has been widely used in offshore engineering for jack-up rigs. However, "punch through"failure often occurs where a stronger soil layer overlays a softer soil layer. In this study, spudcan penetration into double layered soils is investigated numerically. The soil profile is set up as a stronger soil layer overlaying a softer soil layer,with the soil strength ratio ( bottom soil strength / top soil strength) varied from 0.1 to 1.0 ( 1 means uniform soil). The bearing behaviour is discussed and the bearing capacity factors are given for various cases involving different layer thicknesses and different strength ratios of the two clay layers. The development of the plastic zones and the effect of soil selfweight on the bearing capacity are also discussed. From this study, it is found that, when a spudcan is distant from the soil layer boundary, the spudcan can be analysed with single soil layer data. However, when a spudcan becomes closer to the soil boundary layer, the influence of the lower soft soil layer is significant, and the bearing capacity of the spudcan decreases. The critical distance is an indication of the occurrence of "punch through" failure. The critical distance between the spudcan and the layer boundary is larger for a rough spudcan than the one for a smooth one, and the critical distance decreases with increasing soil strength ratio. The depth of cavity formed during initial spudcan penetration depends on the top layer soil strength, soil strength ratio and unit soil self-weight, and the cavity affects the spudcan bearing behaviour as well.
High-Penetration Photovoltaic Planning Methodologies
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gao, David Wenzhong [Alternative Power Innovations, LLC, Broomfield, CO (United States); Muljadi, Eduard [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tian, Tian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Miller, Mackay [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2017-02-24
The main objective of this report is to provide an overview of select U.S. utility methodologies for performing high-penetration photovoltaic (HPPV) system planning and impact studies. This report covers the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's orders related to photovoltaic (PV) power system interconnection, particularly the interconnection processes for the Large Generation Interconnection Procedures and Small Generation Interconnection Procedures. In addition, it includes U.S. state interconnection standards and procedures. The procedures used by these regulatory bodies consider the impacts of HPPV power plants on the networks. Technical interconnection requirements for HPPV voltage regulation include aspects of power monitoring, grounding, synchronization, connection to the overall distribution system, back-feeds, disconnecting means, abnormal operating conditions, and power quality. This report provides a summary of mitigation strategies to minimize the impact of HPPV. Recommendations and revisions to the standards may take place as the penetration level of renewables on the grid increases and new technologies develop in future years.
Feature Profile Simulations and Finite Penetration Depth
Moroz, Paul; Moroz, Daniel
2012-10-01
In plasma materials processing, energetic ions, neutrals and UV photons typically penetrate deep inside solid materials breaking atomic bonds and displacing atoms on their paths. These important phenomena are rarely taken into consideration in processing simulation software, primarily because the proper penetration depths and the corresponding energy depositions, breaking bonds, and atom displacements are difficult and computationally expensive to compute. The FPS-3D feature profile simulator [1-2] is doing that computationally efficiently by utilizing tabulated results obtained with other methods. We discuss, compare, and present results of such simulations made with different methods, one of which is the molecular dynamics analysis. In general, molecular dynamics could be used for simulating materials processing, etching and deposition, but it is extremely computationally expensive to be used for large groups of atoms. In practice, molecular dynamics methods are too slow to be used for feature profile simulations. However, they could help in defining proper chemical reactions and corresponding rates to be used in an advanced feature profile simulator such as FPS-3D. We present results of FPS-3D simulations for Si and SiO2 etching in Ar/Cl2 and Ar/C4F6/O2 plasmas. [4pt] [1] P. Moroz, ``General Feature Profile Simulator FPS-3D,'' ECS Transactions, 35, 25 (2011). [0pt] [2] P. Moroz, ``Numerical Simulation of Feature Profile Evolution using FPS-3D,'' IEEE Transactions of Plasma Science, 39, 2804 (2011).
Penetration of projectiles into granular targets
Ruiz-Suárez, J. C.
2013-06-01
Energetic collisions of subatomic particles with fixed or moving targets have been very valuable to penetrate into the mysteries of nature. But the mysteries are quite intriguing when projectiles and targets are macroscopically immense. We know that countless debris wandering in space impacted (and still do) large asteroids, moons and planets; and that millions of craters on their surfaces are traces of such collisions. By classifying and studying the morphology of such craters, geologists and astrophysicists obtain important clues to understand the origin and evolution of the Solar System. This review surveys knowledge about crater phenomena in the planetary science context, avoiding detailed descriptions already found in excellent papers on the subject. Then, it examines the most important results reported in the literature related to impact and penetration phenomena in granular targets obtained by doing simple experiments. The main goal is to discern whether both schools, one that takes into account the right ingredients (planetary bodies and very high energies) but cannot physically reproduce the collisions, and the other that easily carries out the collisions but uses laboratory ingredients (small projectiles and low energies), can arrive at a synergistic intersection point.
High Penetration Photovoltaic Case Study Report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bank, J.; Mather, B.; Keller, J.; Coddington, M.
2013-01-01
Technical concerns with integrating higher penetrations of photovoltaic (PV) systems include grid stability, voltage regulation, power quality (voltage rise, sags, flicker, and frequency fluctuations), and protection and coordination. The current utility grid was designed to accommodate power flows from the central generation source to the transmission system and eventually to the distribution feeders. At the distribution level, the system was designed to carry power from the substation toward the load. Renewable distributed generation, particularly solar PV, provides power at the distribution level challenging this classical paradigm. As these resources become more commonplace the nature of the distribution network and its operation is changing to handle power flow in both directions. This report is focused on large PV installations in which penetration is significantly greater than 15% of maximum daytime feeder load. These case studies are intended to demonstrate success stories with integration of large PV plants at the distribution level as well as some of the solutions used by the utility to ensure safe, reliable operation of both the PV system and the distribution network.
Plasma penetration of the dayside magnetopause
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gunell, H.; Maggiolo, R. [Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Avenue Circulaire 3, B-1180 Brussels (Belgium); Nilsson, H.; Stenberg, G.; Lundin, R. [Swedish Institute of Space Physics, P.O. Box 812, SE-981 28 Kiruna (Sweden); Hamrin, M. [Department of Physics, Umea University, SE-901 87 Umea (Sweden); Karlsson, T. [Space and Plasma Physics, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), SE-100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Andre, M. [Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Box 537, SE-751 21 Uppsala (Sweden); Dandouras, I. [Institut de Recherche en Astrophysique et Planetologie, UPS-CNRS, Toulouse (France)
2012-07-15
Data from the Cluster spacecraft during their magnetopause crossing on 25 January 2002 are presented. The magnetopause was in a state of slow non-oscillatory motion during the observational period. Coherent structures of magnetosheath plasma, here typified as plasmoids, were seen on closed magnetic field lines on the inside of the magnetopause. Using simultaneous measurements on two spacecraft, the inward motion of the plasmoids is followed from one spacecraft to the next, and it is found to be in agreement with the measured ion velocity. The plasma characteristics and the direction of motion of the plasmoids show that they have penetrated the magnetopause, and the observations are consistent with the concept of impulsive penetration, as it is known from theory, simulations, and laboratory experiments. The mean flux across the magnetopause observed was 0.2%-0.5% of the solar wind flux at the time, and the peak values of the flux inside the plasmoids reached approximately 20% of the solar wind flux.
Penetrating eye injuries from writing instruments
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kelly SP
2011-12-01
Full Text Available Simon P Kelly, Graham MB ReevesThe Royal Bolton Hospital, Bolton, UKPurpose: To consider the potential for ocular injury from writing implements by presenting four such cases, and to consider the incidence of such eye injuries from analysis of a national trauma database.Methods: The Home and Leisure Accident Surveillance System was searched for records of eye injuries from writing instruments to provide UK estimates of such injuries. Four patients with ocular penetrating injury from pens or pencils (especially when caused by children, and examined by the authors, are described which illustrate mechanisms of injury.Results: It is estimated that around 748 ocular pen injuries and 892 ocular pencil injuries of undetermined severity occurred annually in the UK during the database surveillance period 2000–2002. No eye injuries from swords, including toy swords and fencing foils, were reported.Conclusion: Ocular perforation sometimes occur from writing instruments that are thrown in the community, especially by children. Implications for policy and prevention are discussed. Non-specialists should have a low threshold for referring patients with eye injuries if suspicious of ocular penetration, even where caused by everyday objects, such as writing instruments.Keywords: eye injury, eye, children, mechanism, writing instruments, prevention
Penetration through a wall: Is it reality?
Ivlev, B
2011-01-01
A tennis ball is not expected to penetrate through a brick wall since a motion under a barrier is impossible in classical mechanics. With quantum effects a motion of a particle through a barrier is allowed due to quantum tunneling. According to usual theories of tunneling, the particle density decays inside a classical barrier resulting in an extremely slow pentration process. However, there are no general laws forbidding fast motion through classical barriers. The problem addressed is investigation of unusual features o quantum tunneling through a classic static barrier which is at least two-dimensional. Here we show that penetration through such barrier can be not slow. When the barrier satisfies the certain conditions, a regime of quantum lens is possible with formation of caustics. De Broglie waves are reflected from the caustics, interfere, and result in a not small flux from under the barrier. This strongly contrasts to the usual scenario with a decaying under-barrier density. We construct a particular ...
Bell Could Become the Copernicus of Probability
Khrennikov, Andrei
2016-07-01
Our aim is to emphasize the role of mathematical models in physics, especially models of geometry and probability. We briefly compare developments of geometry and probability by pointing to similarities and differences: from Euclid to Lobachevsky and from Kolmogorov to Bell. In probability, Bell could play the same role as Lobachevsky in geometry. In fact, violation of Bell’s inequality can be treated as implying the impossibility to apply the classical probability model of Kolmogorov (1933) to quantum phenomena. Thus the quantum probabilistic model (based on Born’s rule) can be considered as the concrete example of the non-Kolmogorovian model of probability, similarly to the Lobachevskian model — the first example of the non-Euclidean model of geometry. This is the “probability model” interpretation of the violation of Bell’s inequality. We also criticize the standard interpretation—an attempt to add to rigorous mathematical probability models additional elements such as (non)locality and (un)realism. Finally, we compare embeddings of non-Euclidean geometries into the Euclidean space with embeddings of the non-Kolmogorovian probabilities (in particular, quantum probability) into the Kolmogorov probability space. As an example, we consider the CHSH-test.
Stylet penetration of Cacopsylla pyri; an electrical penetration graph (EPG) study
Civolani, S.; Leis, M.; Grandi, G.; Garzo, E.; Pasqualini, E.; Musacchi, S.; Chicca, M.; Castaldelli, G.; Rossie, M.; Tjallingii, W.F.
2011-01-01
Detailed information on plant penetration activities by pear psylla Cacopsylla pyri L. (Hemiptera Psyllidae) is essential to study phytoplasma transmission of “Candidatus Phytoplasma pyri” responsible of pear decline disease (PD) and to trace and evaluate resistant traits in new pear tree selections
Radon penetration of concrete slab cracks, joints, pipe penetrations, and sealants
Nielson, KK; Rogers, VC; Holt, RB; Pugh, TD; Grondzik, WA; deMeijer, RJ
1997-01-01
Radon movement through 12 test slabs with different cracks, pipe penetrations, cold joints, masonry blocks, sealants, and tensile stresses characterized the importance of these anomalous structural domains, Diffusive and advective radon transport were measured with steady-state air pressure differen
Long-rod penetration:the transition zone between rigid and hydrodynamic penetration modes
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Jian-feng LOU; Yan-geng ZHANG; Zheng WANG; Tao HONG; Xiao-li ZHANG; Shu-dao ZHANG
2014-01-01
Long-rod penetration in a wide range of velocity means that the initial impact velocity varies in a range from tens of meters per second to several kilometers per second. The long rods maintain rigid state when the impact velocity is low, the nose of rod deforms and even is blunted when the velocity gets higher, and the nose erodes and fails to lead to the consumption of long projectile when the velocity is very high due to instantaneous high pressure. That is, from low velocity to high velocity, the projectile undergoes rigid rods, deforming non-erosive rods, and erosive rods. Because of the complicated changes of the projectile, no well-established theoretical model and numerical simulation have been used to study the transition zone. Based on the analysis of penetration behavior in the transition zone, a phenomenological model to describe target resistance and a formula to calculate penetration depth in transition zone are proposed, and a method to obtain the boundary velocity of transition zone is determined. A combined theoretical analysis model for three response regions is built by analyzing the characteristics in these regions. The penetration depth predicted by this combined model is in good agreement with experimental result.
Stylet penetration of Cacopsylla pyri; an electrical penetration graph (EPG) study
Civolani, S.; Leis, M.; Grandi, G.; Garzo, E.; Pasqualini, E.; Musacchi, S.; Chicca, M.; Castaldelli, G.; Rossie, M.; Tjallingii, W.F.
2011-01-01
Detailed information on plant penetration activities by pear psylla Cacopsylla pyri L. (Hemiptera Psyllidae) is essential to study phytoplasma transmission of “Candidatus Phytoplasma pyri” responsible of pear decline disease (PD) and to trace and evaluate resistant traits in new pear tree selections
Design and analysis of firewall-penetrated scheme based on trusted host
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
ZHANG Deng-yin; WANG Qian-qian; XU Jian
2007-01-01
On the basis of various firewall-penetrated technologies, a novel firewall-penetrated technology based on trusted host, which can realize the communication between penetrating host and protected host, is proposed in this paper.Meanwhile, the firewall-penetrated evaluating model and its formalized statement is also proposed by quantizing penetrated level, penetrated quality, and penetrated hiding. Finally, the firewall-penetrated technology based on trusted host is analyzed under the firewall-penetrated evaluating model, and the experimental results show that this technology has obvious penetrating effect and high penetrating quality.
UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL probability wheel
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sheng-Cheng Huang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an “investigator” and a “participant”, about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.
Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes
Ibe, Oliver
2005-01-01
This book is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability to real-world problems, and introduce the basics of statistics. The book''s clear writing style and homework problems make it ideal for the classroom or for self-study.* Good and solid introduction to probability theory and stochastic processes * Logically organized; writing is presented in a clear manner * Choice of topics is comprehensive within the area of probability * Ample homework problems are organized into chapter sections
Total variation denoising of probability measures using iterated function systems with probabilities
La Torre, Davide; Mendivil, Franklin; Vrscay, Edward R.
2017-01-01
In this paper we present a total variation denoising problem for probability measures using the set of fixed point probability measures of iterated function systems with probabilities IFSP. By means of the Collage Theorem for contraction mappings, we provide an upper bound for this problem that can be solved by determining a set of probabilities.
Bayesian Probabilities and the Histories Algebra
Marlow, Thomas
2006-01-01
We attempt a justification of a generalisation of the consistent histories programme using a notion of probability that is valid for all complete sets of history propositions. This consists of introducing Cox's axioms of probability theory and showing that our candidate notion of probability obeys them. We also give a generalisation of Bayes' theorem and comment upon how Bayesianism should be useful for the quantum gravity/cosmology programmes.
Non-Boolean probabilities and quantum measurement
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Niestegge, Gerd
2001-08-03
A non-Boolean extension of the classical probability model is proposed. The non-Boolean probabilities reproduce typical quantum phenomena. The proposed model is more general and more abstract, but easier to interpret, than the quantum mechanical Hilbert space formalism and exhibits a particular phenomenon (state-independent conditional probabilities) which may provide new opportunities for an understanding of the quantum measurement process. Examples of the proposed model are provided, using Jordan operator algebras. (author)
Data analysis recipes: Probability calculus for inference
Hogg, David W
2012-01-01
In this pedagogical text aimed at those wanting to start thinking about or brush up on probabilistic inference, I review the rules by which probability distribution functions can (and cannot) be combined. I connect these rules to the operations performed in probabilistic data analysis. Dimensional analysis is emphasized as a valuable tool for helping to construct non-wrong probabilistic statements. The applications of probability calculus in constructing likelihoods, marginalized likelihoods, posterior probabilities, and posterior predictions are all discussed.
Spatial probability aids visual stimulus discrimination
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michael Druker
2010-08-01
Full Text Available We investigated whether the statistical predictability of a target's location would influence how quickly and accurately it was classified. Recent results have suggested that spatial probability can be a cue for the allocation of attention in visual search. One explanation for probability cuing is spatial repetition priming. In our two experiments we used probability distributions that were continuous across the display rather than relying on a few arbitrary screen locations. This produced fewer spatial repeats and allowed us to dissociate the effect of a high probability location from that of short-term spatial repetition. The task required participants to quickly judge the color of a single dot presented on a computer screen. In Experiment 1, targets were more probable in an off-center hotspot of high probability that gradually declined to a background rate. Targets garnered faster responses if they were near earlier target locations (priming and if they were near the high probability hotspot (probability cuing. In Experiment 2, target locations were chosen on three concentric circles around fixation. One circle contained 80% of targets. The value of this ring distribution is that it allowed for a spatially restricted high probability zone in which sequentially repeated trials were not likely to be physically close. Participant performance was sensitive to the high-probability circle in addition to the expected effects of eccentricity and the distance to recent targets. These two experiments suggest that inhomogeneities in spatial probability can be learned and used by participants on-line and without prompting as an aid for visual stimulus discrimination and that spatial repetition priming is not a sufficient explanation for this effect. Future models of attention should consider explicitly incorporating the probabilities of targets locations and features.
Some New Results on Transition Probability
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Yu Quan XIE
2008-01-01
In this paper, we study the basic properties of stationary transition probability of Markov processes on a general measurable space (E, ε), such as the continuity, maximum probability, zero point, positive probability set standardization, and obtain a series of important results such as Continuity Theorem, Representation Theorem, Levy Theorem and so on. These results are very useful for us to study stationary tri-point transition probability on a general measurable space (E, ε). Our main tools such as Egoroff's Theorem, Vitali-Hahn-Saks's Theorem and the theory of atomic set and well-posedness of measure are also very interesting and fashionable.
Probabilities are single-case, or nothing
Appleby, D M
2004-01-01
Physicists have, hitherto, mostly adopted a frequentist conception of probability, according to which probability statements apply only to ensembles. It is argued that we should, instead, adopt an epistemic, or Bayesian conception, in which probabilities are conceived as logical constructs rather than physical realities, and in which probability statements do apply directly to individual events. The question is closely related to the disagreement between the orthodox school of statistical thought and the Bayesian school. It has important technical implications (it makes a difference, what statistical methodology one adopts). It may also have important implications for the interpretation of the quantum state.
Real analysis and probability solutions to problems
Ash, Robert P
1972-01-01
Real Analysis and Probability: Solutions to Problems presents solutions to problems in real analysis and probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability; the interplay between measure theory and topology; conditional probability and expectation; the central limit theorem; and strong laws of large numbers in terms of martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with problems and solutions for the theory of measure and integration, followed by various applications of the basic integration theory.
Melucci, Massimo
2012-01-01
Probabilistic models require the notion of event space for defining a probability measure. An event space has a probability measure which ensues the Kolmogorov axioms. However, the probabilities observed from distinct sources, such as that of relevance of documents, may not admit a single event space thus causing some issues. In this article, some results are introduced for ensuring whether the observed prob- abilities of relevance of documents admit a single event space. More- over, an alternative framework of probability is introduced, thus chal- lenging the use of classical probability for ranking documents. Some reflections on the convenience of extending the classical probabilis- tic retrieval toward a more general framework which encompasses the issues are made.
Plasma Bursts in Deep Penetration Laser Welding
Mrňa, L.; Šarbort, M.
We present an experimental study of the deep penetration laser welding process which aims to analyze the plasma plume oscillations on a short time scale. Using the high-speed camera we show that the plasma comes out of the keyhole in the form of short bursts rather than the continuous flow. We detect these bursts as the short-time intensity oscillations of light emissions coming from the plasma plume. We determine the period of bursts using the statistical signal processing methods and the short-time frequency analysis. Finally, we compare the characteristics of plasma bursts and the geometry of resulting welds carried out on a 2 kW Yb:YAG laser welding machine for the steel workpiece and various welding parameters settings.
Aerodynamic Jump for Long Rod Penetrators
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mark L. Bundy
2000-04-01
Full Text Available Aerodynamic jump for a non-spinning kinetic energy penetrator is neither a discontinuous change in the ,direction of motion at the origin of free night, nor is it the converse, i.e. a cumulativer~direc4on over a domain of infinite extent. Rather aerodynamic jump, for such a projectile, is a localised redirection of the centre of gravity motion, caused ~ the force of lift due to yaw over ther4latively short region from entry into free flight until the yaw reaches its first maximum. The primary objective of this paper is to provide answtfrs to the questions like what is aerodynamic jump, what liauses it, !lnd wh~t aspects df the flight trajectory does it refer to, or account for .
Civil engineering applications of ground penetrating radar
Pajewski, Lara
2015-01-01
This book, based on Transport and Urban Development COST Action TU1208, presents the most advanced applications of ground penetrating radar (GPR) in a civil engineering context, with documentation of instrumentation, methods, and results. It explains clearly how GPR can be employed for the surveying of critical transport infrastructure, such as roads, pavements, bridges, and tunnels, and for the sensing and mapping of underground utilities and voids. Detailed attention is also devoted to use of GPR in the inspection of geological structures and of construction materials and structures, including reinforced concrete, steel reinforcing bars, and pre/post-tensioned stressing ducts. Advanced methods for solution of electromagnetic scattering problems and new data processing techniques are also presented. Readers will come to appreciate that GPR is a safe, advanced, nondestructive, and noninvasive imaging technique that can be effectively used for the inspection of composite structures and the performance of diagn...
The penetration of ceftazidime into extravascular fluid.
Ryan, D M; Mason, U; Harding, S M
1981-09-01
Ceftazidime achieved high concentrations in extravascular fluid following intravenal or intramuscular administration to healthy male volunteers. Subcutaneous fluid was sampled using the implanted cotton thread technique. The concentration/time curves of ceftazidime in subcutaneous fluid, after a short distributive phase, were similar in profile to concurrent serum concentrations. The degree of penetration as determined by ratio of the area under curve for subcutaneous fluid levels to the area under curve for the serum levels was 54%. There is evidence from experiments in animals that antibiotic concentration/time profiles in the subcutaneous compartment reflect levels found in rapidly equilibriating tissue fluids or well perfused tissues. It is therefore concluded that ceftazidime will achieve therapeutically useful levels in a wide range of tissues and tissue fluids in man in exess of the MIC90 for Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus and members of the Enterobacteriaceae.
Cephalic Tetanus from Penetrating Orbital Wound
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eloïse Guyennet
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Tetanus is a neurologic disorder caused by tetanospasmin, a protein toxin elaborated by Clostridium tetani. Cephalic tetanus is a localized form of the disease causing trismus and dysfunction of cranial nerves. We report the case of a man who presented with facial trauma, complete ophthalmoplegia, exophthalmos, areactive mydriasis, and periorbital hematoma. An orbital CT revealed air bubbles in the right orbital apex. The patient was given a tetanus toxoid booster and antibiotherapy. After extraction of a wooden foreign body, the patient developed right facial nerve palsy, disorders of swallowing, contralateral III cranial nerve palsy, and trismus. Only one case of cephalic tetanus from penetrating orbital wound has been reported in literature 20 years ago. When a patient presents with an orbital wound with ophthalmoplegia and signs of anaerobic infection, cephalic tetanus should be ruled out.
Novel cell-penetrating peptide targeting mitochondria.
Cerrato, Carmine Pasquale; Pirisinu, Marco; Vlachos, Efstathios Nikolaos; Langel, Ülo
2015-11-01
Cell-penetrating peptides (CPPs) are short, nontoxic peptides with cationic and/or amphipathic properties able to cross the cellular membrane. CPPs are used for the delivery of a wide variety of cargoes, such as proteins, oligonucleotides, and therapeutic molecules. The aim of the present study was to synthesize unusually small novel CPPs targeting mitochondria based on the Szeto-Schiller peptide (SS-31) to influence intramitochondrial processes and to improve the biologic effects. All the peptides used were synthesized manually using 9-fluorenylmethyloxycarbonyl chemistry. In the first part of the study, HeLa 705, U87, and bEnd.3 cells were used as in vitro delivery model. Cells were incubated for 24 h at 37°C and 5% CO2 with different concentrations of our peptides. Cell proliferation assay was performed to evaluate cell viability. Biologic effects such as mitochondrial membrane potential and antioxidant activity were evaluated. H2O2 was used as positive control. Uptake studies were performed using peptides conjugated with 5(6)-carboxyfluorescein (FAM). Fluorescent microscopy was used to determine presence and localization of peptides into the cells. Isolated mitochondria from pretreated cells and mitochondria treated after isolation were used to confirm the targeting ability of the peptide. Uptake of FAM alone was used as negative control. Microscopy studies confirmed the ability of peptides to penetrate cell. Localization analysis showed increase in uptake by 35% compared with SS-31. Mitochondrial CPP 1 (mtCPP-1) had no effect on mitochondrial membrane potential and prevented reactive oxygen species formation in bEnd.3 cells by 2-fold compared with SS-31. No cytotoxicity was observed even at high concentration (100 µM). These data suggest that mtCPP-1 is a mitochondrial CPP and protect mitochondria from oxidative damage due to its own antioxidant activities. © FASEB.
Săndulescu, Aurel; Gupta, Raj K.; Greiner, Walter; Carstoiu, Florin; Horoi, Mihai
The folded Michigan — 3-Yukawa (M3Y) potential is used for the first time for calculating the WKB penetration probabilities, with deformation effects of the emitted clusters also included for the first time. For the clusters to be spheres, our calculations of the (empirical) performation probabilities P0 show that, depending rather sensitively on the choice of nuclear potential, P0 decreases with mass Ac of the emitted cluster, as is the case for other two model calculations of Blendowske-Walliser and Malik-Gupta. The deformation effects of the emitted clusters are shown to reduce the performation probabilities by an order of magnitude 103, which invalidates the simple straight line formula between — log10 P0 and Ac.
Analysis of vertical projectile penetration in granular soils
Boguslavskii, Yu; Drabkin, S.; Salman, A.
1996-03-01
A model of vertical dynamic penetration of projectiles in granular soils was developed based on known experiments and the theory of dimensions. The depth of penetration is derived as a function of initial velocity and material properties. Velocity and acceleration are obtained as functions of time and depth of penetration. Under certain conditions two acceleration peaks are observed, an initial one due to dynamic and a second one due to static characteristics of penetration. Static properties of soils are derived using dynamic measurements. Numerical examples are provided. Theoretical and experimental results coincide reasonably well.
Building virtual pentesting labs for advanced penetration testing
Cardwell, Kevin
2014-01-01
Written in an easy-to-follow approach using hands-on examples, this book helps you create virtual environments for advanced penetration testing, enabling you to build a multi-layered architecture to include firewalls, IDS/IPS, web application firewalls, and endpoint protection, which is essential in the penetration testing world. If you are a penetration tester, security consultant, security test engineer, or analyst who wants to practice and perfect penetration testing skills by building virtual pen testing labs in varying industry scenarios, this is the book for you. This book is ideal if yo
Characterization of nuclear reactor containment penetrations. Preliminary report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bump, T.R.; Seidensticker, R.W.; Shackelford, M.A.; Gambhir, V.K.; McLennan, G.L.
1984-06-01
This report summarizes the survey work conducted by Argonne National Laboratory on the design and details of major penetrations in 22 nuclear power plants. The survey includes all containment types and materials in current use. It also includes details of all types of penetrations (except for electrical penetration assemblies and valves) and the seals and gaskets used in them. The report provides a test matrix for testing major penetrations and for testing seals and gaskets in order to evaluate their leakage potential under severe accident conditions.
Hacking and penetration testing with low power devices
Polstra, Philip
2014-01-01
Hacking and Penetration Testing with Low Power Devices shows you how to perform penetration tests using small, low-powered devices that are easily hidden and may be battery-powered. It shows how to use an army of devices, costing less than you might spend on a laptop, from distances of a mile or more. Hacking and Penetration Testing with Low Power Devices shows how to use devices running a version of The Deck, a full-featured penetration testing and forensics Linux distribution, and can run for days or weeks on batteries due to their low power consumption. Author Philip Polstra shows how to