WorldWideScience

Sample records for unit penetration probability

  1. Measurement of D-T neutron penetration probability spectra for iron ball shell systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan Shaojie

    1998-06-01

    The D-T neutron penetration probability spectra are measured for iron ball shell systems of the series of samples used in the experiments, and the penetration curves are presented. As the detector is near to samples, the measured results being approximately corrected are compared with those in the literature, and it is shown that the former is compatible with the latter in the range of the experimental error

  2. Optimal design of unit hydrographs using probability distribution and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    optimization formulation is solved using binary-coded genetic algorithms. The number of variables to ... Unit hydrograph; rainfall-runoff; hydrology; genetic algorithms; optimization; probability ..... Application of the model. Data derived from the ...

  3. Quantum processes: probability fluxes, transition probabilities in unit time and vacuum vibrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oleinik, V.P.; Arepjev, Ju D.

    1989-01-01

    Transition probabilities in unit time and probability fluxes are compared in studying the elementary quantum processes -the decay of a bound state under the action of time-varying and constant electric fields. It is shown that the difference between these quantities may be considerable, and so the use of transition probabilities W instead of probability fluxes Π, in calculating the particle fluxes, may lead to serious errors. The quantity W represents the rate of change with time of the population of the energy levels relating partly to the real states and partly to the virtual ones, and it cannot be directly measured in experiment. The vacuum background is shown to be continuously distorted when a perturbation acts on a system. Because of this the viewpoint of an observer on the physical properties of real particles continuously varies with time. This fact is not taken into consideration in the conventional theory of quantum transitions based on using the notion of probability amplitude. As a result, the probability amplitudes lose their physical meaning. All the physical information on quantum dynamics of a system is contained in the mean values of physical quantities. The existence of considerable differences between the quantities W and Π permits one in principle to make a choice of the correct theory of quantum transitions on the basis of experimental data. (author)

  4. Analytical Model for the Probability Characteristics of a Crack Penetrating Capsules in Capsule-Based Self-Healing Cementitious Materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhong LV

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Autonomous crack healing using pre-embedded capsules containing healing agent is becoming a promising approach to restore the strength of damaged structures. In addition to the material properties, the size and volume fraction of capsules influence crack healing in the matrix. Understanding the crack and capsule interaction is critical in the development and design of structures made of capsule-based self-healing materials. Continuing our previous study, in this contribution a more practical rupturing mode of capsules characterizing the rupturing manner of capsules fractured by cracks in cementitious materials is presented, i.e., penetrating mode. With the underlying assumption that a crack penetrating capsules undoubtedly leads to crack healing, geometrical probability theory is employed to develop the quantitative relationship between crack size and capsule size, capsule concentration in capsule-based self-healing virtual cementitious material. Moreover, an analytical expression of probability of a crack penetrating with randomly dispersed capsules is developed in two-dimensional material matrix setup. The influences of the induced rupturing modes of capsules embedded on the self-healing efficiency are analyzed. Much attention is paid to compare the penetrating probability and the hitting probability, in order to assist the designer to make a choice of the optimal rupturing modes of capsules embedded. The accuracy of results of the theoretical model is also compared with Monte-Carlo numerical analysis of crack interacting with capsules. It shows that the developed probability characteristics of a crack interaction with capsules for different rupturing modes is helpful to provide guidelines for designer working with capsule-based self-healing cementitious materials.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ms.23.3.16888

  5. Multi-objective unit commitment with wind penetration and emission concerns under stochastic and fuzzy uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Bo; Wang, Shuming; Zhou, Xianzhong; Watada, Junzo

    2016-01-01

    Recent years have witnessed the ever increasing renewable penetration in power generation systems, which entails modern unit commitment problems with modelling and computation burdens. This study aims to simulate the impacts of manifold uncertainties on system operation with emission concerns. First, probability theory and fuzzy set theory are applied to jointly represent the uncertainties such as wind generation, load fluctuation and unit outage that interleaved in unit commitment problems. Second, a Value-at-Risk-based multi-objective approach is developed as a bridge of existing stochastic and robust unit commitment optimizations, which not only captures the inherent conflict between operation cost and supply reliability, but also provides easy-to-adjust robustness against worst-case scenarios. Third, a multi-objective algorithm that integrates fuzzy simulation and particle swarm optimization is developed to achieve approximate Pareto-optimal solutions. The research effectiveness is exemplified by two case studies: The comparison between test systems with and without generation uncertainty demonstrates that this study is practicable and can suggest operational insights of generation mix systems. The sensitivity analysis on Value-at-Risk proves that our method can achieve adequate tradeoff between performance optimality and robustness, thus help system operators in making informed decisions. Finally, the model and algorithm comparisons also justify the superiority of this research. - Highlights: • Probability theory and fuzzy set theory are used to describe different uncertainties. • A Value-at-Risk-based multi-objective unit commitment model is proposed. • An improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed. • The model achieves adequate trade-off between performance optimality and robustness. • The algorithm can obtain convergent and diversified Pareto fronts.

  6. Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, A N

    1996-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables

  7. Unit Commitment for Systems With Significant Wind Penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tuohy, Aidan; Meibom, Peter; Denny, E.

    2009-01-01

    The stochastic nature of wind alters the unit commitment and dispatch problem. By accounting for this uncertainty when scheduling the system, more robust schedules are produced, which should, on average, reduce expected costs. In this paper, the effects of stochastic wind and load on the unit...... commitment and dispatch of power systems with high levels of wind power are examined. By comparing the costs, planned operation and performance of the schedules produced, it is shown that stochastic optimization results in less costly, of the order of 0.25%, and better performing schedules than deterministic...... optimization. The impact of planning the system more frequently to account for updated wind and load forecasts is then examined. More frequent planning means more up to date forecasts are used, which reduces the need for reserve and increases performance of the schedules. It is shown that mid-merit and peaking...

  8. The Association between Medicare Advantage Market Penetration and Diabetes in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Steven W; Bernell, Stephanie Lazarus; Wilmott, Jennifer; Casim, M Faizan; Wang, Jing; Pearson, Lindsey; Byler, Caitlin M; Zhang, Zidong

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study is to explore the extent to which managed care market penetration in the United States is associated with the presence of chronic disease. Diabetes was selected as the chronic disease of interest due to its increasing prevalence as well as the disease management protocols that can lessen disease complications. We hypothesized that greater managed care market penetration would be associated with (1) lower prevalence of diabetes and (2) lower prevalence of diabetes-related comorbidities (DRCs) among diabetics. Data for this analysis came from two sources. We merged Medicare Advantage (MA) market penetration data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) with data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) (2004-2008). Results suggest that county-level MA market penetration is not significantly associated with prevalence of diabetes or DRCs. That finding is quite interesting in that managed care market penetration has been shown to have an effect on utilization of inpatient services. It may be that managed care protocols do not offer the same benefits beyond the inpatient setting.

  9. Verification of Sulfate Attack Penetration Rates for Saltstone Disposal Unit Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flach, G. P. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2015-05-12

    Recent Special Analysis modeling of Saltstone Disposal Units consider sulfate attack on concrete and utilize degradation rates estimated from Cementitious Barriers Partnership software simulations. This study provides an independent verification of those simulation results using an alternative analysis method and an independent characterization data source. The sulfate penetration depths estimated herein are similar to the best-estimate values in SRNL-STI-2013-00118 Rev. 2 and well below the nominal values subsequently used to define Saltstone Special Analysis base cases.

  10. Effect of moisture content and dry unit weight on the resilient modulus of subgrade soils predicted by cone penetration test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-06-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of moisture content and dry unit weight on the resilient characteristics of subgrade soil predicted by the cone penetration test. An experimental program was conducted in which cone penetratio...

  11. Probabilistic analysis of Millstone Unit 3 ultimate containment failure probability given high pressure: Chapter 14

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bickel, J.H.

    1983-01-01

    The quantification of the containment event trees in the Millstone Unit 3 Probabilistic Safety Study utilizes a conditional probability of failure given high pressure which is based on a new approach. The generation of this conditional probability was based on a weakest link failure mode model which considered contributions from a number of overlapping failure modes. This overlap effect was due to a number of failure modes whose mean failure pressures were clustered within a 5 psi range and which had uncertainties due to variances in material strengths and analytical uncertainties which were between 9 and 15 psi. Based on a review of possible probability laws to describe the failure probability of individual structural failure modes, it was determined that a Weibull probability law most adequately described the randomness in the physical process of interest. The resultant conditional probability of failure is found to have a median failure pressure of 132.4 psia. The corresponding 5-95 percentile values are 112 psia and 146.7 psia respectively. The skewed nature of the conditional probability of failure vs. pressure results in a lower overall containment failure probability for an appreciable number of the severe accident sequences of interest, but also probabilities which are more rigorously traceable from first principles

  12. The estimated lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chesson, Harrell W; Dunne, Eileen F; Hariri, Susan; Markowitz, Lauri E

    2014-11-01

    Estimates of the lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus (HPV) can help to quantify HPV incidence, illustrate how common HPV infection is, and highlight the importance of HPV vaccination. We developed a simple model, based primarily on the distribution of lifetime numbers of sex partners across the population and the per-partnership probability of acquiring HPV, to estimate the lifetime probability of acquiring HPV in the United States in the time frame before HPV vaccine availability. We estimated the average lifetime probability of acquiring HPV among those with at least 1 opposite sex partner to be 84.6% (range, 53.6%-95.0%) for women and 91.3% (range, 69.5%-97.7%) for men. Under base case assumptions, more than 80% of women and men acquire HPV by age 45 years. Our results are consistent with estimates in the existing literature suggesting a high lifetime probability of HPV acquisition and are supported by cohort studies showing high cumulative HPV incidence over a relatively short period, such as 3 to 5 years.

  13. Space Object Collision Probability via Monte Carlo on the Graphics Processing Unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vittaldev, Vivek; Russell, Ryan P.

    2017-09-01

    Fast and accurate collision probability computations are essential for protecting space assets. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is the most accurate but computationally intensive method. A Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) is used to parallelize the computation and reduce the overall runtime. Using MC techniques to compute the collision probability is common in literature as the benchmark. An optimized implementation on the GPU, however, is a challenging problem and is the main focus of the current work. The MC simulation takes samples from the uncertainty distributions of the Resident Space Objects (RSOs) at any time during a time window of interest and outputs the separations at closest approach. Therefore, any uncertainty propagation method may be used and the collision probability is automatically computed as a function of RSO collision radii. Integration using a fixed time step and a quartic interpolation after every Runge Kutta step ensures that no close approaches are missed. Two orders of magnitude speedups over a serial CPU implementation are shown, and speedups improve moderately with higher fidelity dynamics. The tool makes the MC approach tractable on a single workstation, and can be used as a final product, or for verifying surrogate and analytical collision probability methods.

  14. Sub-hourly impacts of high solar penetrations in the Western United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lew, Debra; Brinkman, Greg; Florita, Anthony; Heaney, Michael; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hummon, Marissa; Ibanez, Eduardo [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); King, Jack [RePPAE, Wexford, PA (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Until recently, it has been difficult to study the impacts of significant penetrations of hypothetical, utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) plants over large geographic regions. This was because of the lack of credible data to simulate the output of these plants with appropriate spatial and temporal correlation, especially on a sub-hourly basis. In the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Phase 2 (WWSIS2), we used new technigues to synthesize sub-hourly high-resolution solar output for PV rooftops, utility-scale PV, and concentrating solar power (CSP). This allowed us to examine implications of 25 % solar (60/40 split of PV and CSP) and 8 % wind. In this paper, we present results of analysis on the sub-hourly impacts of high solar penetrations. Extreme event analysis showed that most of the large ramps were because of sunrise and sunset events, which have a significant predictability component. Variability in general was much higher with high penetrations of solar than with high penetrations of wind. Reserve methodologies that had already been developed for wind were therefore modified to take into account the predictability component of solar variability. Significantly less transmission was required for high solar penetrations than wind and significantly less curtailment occurred in the high solar cases. (orig.)

  15. A Probability Analysis of the Generating Cost for EU-APR1400 Single Unit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ha, Gak Hyeon; Kim, Sung Hwan [KHNP CRI, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    The nuclear power plant market is expected to grow rapidly in order to address issues of global warming, reducing CO{sub 2} emissions and securing stable electricity supplies. Under these circumstances, the main primary goal of the EU-APR100 development is to ensure export competitiveness in the European countries. To this end, EU-APR1400 have been developed based one te APR1400 (Advanced Power Reactor, GEN Type) The EU-APR1400 adds many advanced design features to its predecessor, as outlined below in Table 1. In this simulation, the results of the generating cost of the EU-APR1400 single unit were determined using the probability cost analysis technique, the generating cost range was shown to be 56.16 ∼ 70.92 won/kWh.

  16. A Probability Analysis of the Generating Cost for EU-APR1400 Single Unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Gak Hyeon; Kim, Sung Hwan

    2014-01-01

    The nuclear power plant market is expected to grow rapidly in order to address issues of global warming, reducing CO 2 emissions and securing stable electricity supplies. Under these circumstances, the main primary goal of the EU-APR100 development is to ensure export competitiveness in the European countries. To this end, EU-APR1400 have been developed based one te APR1400 (Advanced Power Reactor, GEN Type) The EU-APR1400 adds many advanced design features to its predecessor, as outlined below in Table 1. In this simulation, the results of the generating cost of the EU-APR1400 single unit were determined using the probability cost analysis technique, the generating cost range was shown to be 56.16 ∼ 70.92 won/kWh.

  17. United States streamflow probabilities based on forecasted La Nina, winter-spring 2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Redmond, K.T.

    1999-01-01

    Although for the last 5 months the TahitiDarwin Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has hovered close to normal, the “equatorial” SOI has remained in the La Niña category and predictions are calling for La Niña conditions this winter. In view of these predictions of continuing La Niña and as a direct extension of previous studies of the relations between El NiñoSouthern Oscil-lation (ENSO) conditions and streamflow in the United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Redmond and Cayan, 1994; Dettinger et al., 1998; Garen, 1998; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., in press), the probabilities that United States streamflows from December 1999 through July 2000 will be in upper and lower thirds (terciles) of the historical records are estimated here. The processes that link ENSO to North American streamflow are discussed in detail in these diagnostics studies. Our justification for generating this forecast is threefold: (1) Cayan et al. (1999) recently have shown that ENSO influences on streamflow variations and extremes are proportionately larger than the corresponding precipitation teleconnections. (2) Redmond and Cayan (1994) and Dettinger et al. (in press) also have shown that the low-frequency evolution of ENSO conditions support long-lead correlations between ENSO and streamflow in many rivers of the conterminous United States. (3) In many rivers, significant (weeks-to-months) delays between precipitation and the release to streams of snowmelt or ground-water discharge can support even longer term forecasts of streamflow than is possible for precipitation. The relatively slow, orderly evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation episodes, the accentuated dependence of streamflow upon ENSO, and the long lags between precipitation and flow encourage us to provide the following analysis as a simple prediction of this year’s river flows.

  18. Impact of Medicare Advantage penetration and hospital competition on technical efficiency of nursing care in US intensive care units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Ari; Scott, Linda D; Park, Chang; Vincent, Catherine; Ryan, Catherine J; Lee, Taewha

    2018-04-10

    This study aimed to evaluate technical efficiency of US intensive care units and determine the effects of environmental factors on technical efficiency in providing quality of nursing care. Data were obtained from the 2014 National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Data envelopment analysis was used to estimate technical efficiency for each intensive care unit. Multilevel modeling was used to determine the effects of environmental factors on technical efficiency. Overall, Medicare Advantage penetration and hospital competition in a market did not create pressure for intensive care units to become more efficient by reducing their inputs. However, these 2 environmental factors showed positive influences on technical efficiency in intensive care units with certain levels of technical efficiency. The implications of the study results for management strategies and health policy may vary according to the levels of technical efficiency in intensive care units. Further studies are needed to examine why and how intensive care units with particular levels of technical efficiency are differently affected by certain environmental factors. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. On the probability distribution of daily streamflow in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, Annalise G.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2017-06-01

    Daily streamflows are often represented by flow duration curves (FDCs), which illustrate the frequency with which flows are equaled or exceeded. FDCs have had broad applications across both operational and research hydrology for decades; however, modeling FDCs has proven elusive. Daily streamflow is a complex time series with flow values ranging over many orders of magnitude. The identification of a probability distribution that can approximate daily streamflow would improve understanding of the behavior of daily flows and the ability to estimate FDCs at ungaged river locations. Comparisons of modeled and empirical FDCs at nearly 400 unregulated, perennial streams illustrate that the four-parameter kappa distribution provides a very good representation of daily streamflow across the majority of physiographic regions in the conterminous United States (US). Further, for some regions of the US, the three-parameter generalized Pareto and lognormal distributions also provide a good approximation to FDCs. Similar results are found for the period of record FDCs, representing the long-term hydrologic regime at a site, and median annual FDCs, representing the behavior of flows in a typical year.

  20. Utilization of transmission probabilities in the calculation of unit-cell by the interface-current method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Queiroz Bogado Leite, S. de.

    1989-10-01

    A widely used but otherwise physically incorrect assumption in unit-cell calculations by the method of interface currents in cylindrical or spherical geometries, is that of that of isotropic fluxes at the surfaces of the cell annular regions, when computing transmission probabilities. In this work, new interface-current relations are developed without making use of this assumption and the effects on calculated integral parameters are shown for an idealized unit-cell example. (author) [pt

  1. Continental-scale simulation of burn probabilities, flame lengths, and fire size distribution for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac Grenfell; Karin L. Riley

    2010-01-01

    Components of a quantitative risk assessment were produced by simulation of burn probabilities and fire behavior variation for 134 fire planning units (FPUs) across the continental U.S. The system uses fire growth simulation of ignitions modeled from relationships between large fire occurrence and the fire danger index Energy Release Component (ERC). Simulations of 10,...

  2. Application of Phasor Measurement Units for Protection of Distribution Networks with High Penetration of Photovoltaic Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meskin, Matin

    The rate of the integration of distributed generation (DG) units to the distribution level to meet the growth in demand increases as a reasonable replacement for costly network expansion. This integration brings many advantages to the consumers and power grids, as well as giving rise to more challenges in relation to protection and control. Recent research has brought to light the negative effects of DG units on short circuit currents and overcurrent (OC) protection systems in distribution networks. Change in the direction of fault current flow, increment or decrement of fault current magnitude, blindness of protection, feeder sympathy trip, nuisance trip of interrupting devices, and the disruption of coordination between protective devices are some potential impacts of DG unit integration. Among other types of DG units, the integration of renewable energy resources into the electric grid has seen a vast improvement in recent years. In particular, the interconnection of photovoltaic (PV) sources to the medium voltage (MV) distribution networks has experienced a rapid increase in the last decade. In this work, the effect of PV source on conventional OC relays in MV distribution networks is shown. It is indicated that the PV output fluctuation, due to changes in solar radiation, causes the magnitude and direction of the current to change haphazardly. These variations may result in the poor operation of OC relays as the main protective devices in the MV distribution networks. In other words, due to the bi-directional power flow characteristic and the fluctuation of current magnitude occurring in the presence of PV sources, a specific setting of OC relays is difficult to realize. Therefore, OC relays may operate in normal conditions. To improve the OC relay operation, a voltage-dependent-overcurrent protection is proposed. Although, this new method prevents the OC relay from maloperation, its ability to detect earth faults and high impedance faults is poor. Thus, a

  3. Recent trends in the probability of high out-of-pocket medical expenses in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine E Baird

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This article measures the probability that out-of-pocket expenses in the United States exceed a threshold share of income. It calculates this probability separately by individuals’ health condition, income, and elderly status and estimates changes occurring in these probabilities between 2010 and 2013. Data and Method: This article uses nationally representative household survey data on 344,000 individuals. Logistic regressions estimate the probabilities that out-of-pocket expenses exceed 5% and alternatively 10% of income in the two study years. These probabilities are calculated for individuals based on their income, health status, and elderly status. Results: Despite favorable changes in both health policy and the economy, large numbers of Americans continue to be exposed to high out-of-pocket expenditures. For instance, the results indicate that in 2013 over a quarter of nonelderly low-income citizens in poor health spent 10% or more of their income on out-of-pocket expenses, and over 40% of this group spent more than 5%. Moreover, for Americans as a whole, the probability of spending in excess of 5% of income on out-of-pocket costs increased by 1.4 percentage points between 2010 and 2013, with the largest increases occurring among low-income Americans; the probability of Americans spending more than 10% of income grew from 9.3% to 9.6%, with the largest increases also occurring among the poor. Conclusion: The magnitude of out-of-pocket’s financial burden and the most recent upward trends in it underscore a need to develop good measures of the degree to which health care policy exposes individuals to financial risk, and to closely monitor the Affordable Care Act’s success in reducing Americans’ exposure to large medical bills.

  4. Probability-Weighted LMP and RCP for Day-Ahead Energy Markets using Stochastic Security-Constrained Unit Commitment: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ela, E.; O' Malley, M.

    2012-06-01

    Variable renewable generation resources are increasing their penetration on electric power grids. These resources have weather-driven fuel sources that vary on different time scales and are difficult to predict in advance. These characteristics create challenges for system operators managing the load balance on different timescales. Research is looking into new operational techniques and strategies that show great promise on facilitating greater integration of variable resources. Stochastic Security-Constrained Unit Commitment models are one strategy that has been discussed in literature and shows great benefit. However, it is rarely used outside the research community due to its computational limits and difficulties integrating with electricity markets. This paper discusses how it can be integrated into day-ahead energy markets and especially on what pricing schemes should be used to ensure an efficient and fair market.

  5. The Cost of Distribution System Upgrades to Accommodate Increasing Penetrations of Distributed Photovoltaic Systems on Real Feeders in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horowitz, Kelsey A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ding, Fei [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mather, Barry A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palmintier, Bryan S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-04-05

    The increasing deployment of distributed photovoltaic systems (DPV) can impact operations at the distribution level and the transmission level of the electric grid. It is important to develop and implement forward-looking approaches for calculating distribution upgrade costs that can be used to inform system planning, market and tariff design, cost allocation, and other policymaking as penetration levels of DPV increase. Using a bottom-up approach that involves iterative hosting capacity analysis, this report calculates distribution upgrade costs as a function of DPV penetration on three real feeders - two in California and one in the Northeastern United States.

  6. Tree mortality estimates and species distribution probabilities in southeastern United States forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin A. Spetich; Zhaofei Fan; Zhen Sui; Michael Crosby; Hong S. He; Stephen R. Shifley; Theodor D. Leininger; W. Keith Moser

    2017-01-01

    Stresses to trees under a changing climate can lead to changes in forest tree survival, mortality and distribution.  For instance, a study examining the effects of human-induced climate change on forest biodiversity by Hansen and others (2001) predicted a 32% reduction in loblolly–shortleaf pine habitat across the eastern United States.  However, they also...

  7. Probability of detecting perchlorate under natural conditions in deep groundwater in California and the Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fram, Miranda S.; Belitz, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    We use data from 1626 groundwater samples collected in California, primarily from public drinking water supply wells, to investigate the distribution of perchlorate in deep groundwater under natural conditions. The wells were sampled for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Priority Basin Project. We develop a logistic regression model for predicting probabilities of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than multiple threshold concentrations as a function of climate (represented by an aridity index) and potential anthropogenic contributions of perchlorate (quantified as an anthropogenic score, AS). AS is a composite categorical variable including terms for nitrate, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds. Incorporating water-quality parameters in AS permits identification of perturbation of natural occurrence patterns by flushing of natural perchlorate salts from unsaturated zones by irrigation recharge as well as addition of perchlorate from industrial and agricultural sources. The data and model results indicate low concentrations (0.1-0.5 μg/L) of perchlorate occur under natural conditions in groundwater across a wide range of climates, beyond the arid to semiarid climates in which they mostly have been previously reported. The probability of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than 0.1 μg/L under natural conditions ranges from 50-70% in semiarid to arid regions of California and the Southwestern United States to 5-15% in the wettest regions sampled (the Northern California coast). The probability of concentrations above 1 μg/L under natural conditions is low (generally <3%).

  8. Mapping the Relative Probability of Common Toad Occurrence in Terrestrial Lowland Farm Habitat in the United Kingdom.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosie D Salazar

    Full Text Available The common toad (Bufo bufo is of increasing conservation concern in the United Kingdom (UK due to dramatic population declines occurring in the past century. Many of these population declines coincided with reductions in both terrestrial and aquatic habitat availability and quality and have been primarily attributed to the effect of agricultural land conversion (of natural and semi-natural habitats to arable and pasture fields and pond drainage. However, there is little evidence available to link habitat availability with common toad population declines, especially when examined at a broad landscape scale. Assessing such patterns of population declines at the landscape scale, for instance, require an understanding of how this species uses terrestrial habitat.We intensively studied the terrestrial resource selection of a large population of common toads in Oxfordshire, England, UK. Adult common toads were fitted with passive integrated transponder (PIT tags to allow detection in the terrestrial environment using a portable PIT antenna once toads left the pond and before going into hibernation (April/May-October 2012 and 2013. We developed a population-level resource selection function (RSF to assess the relative probability of toad occurrence in the terrestrial environment by collecting location data for 90 recaptured toads.The predicted relative probability of toad occurrence for this population was greatest in wooded habitat near to water bodies; relative probability of occurrence declined dramatically > 50 m from these habitats. Toads also tended to select habitat near to their breeding pond and toad occurrence was negatively related to urban environments.

  9. Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

    2017-05-01

    A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

  10. Sexual behaviors, relationships, and perceived health status among adult women in the United States: results from a national probability sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbenick, Debby; Reece, Michael; Schick, Vanessa; Sanders, Stephanie A; Dodge, Brian; Fortenberry, J Dennis

    2010-10-01

    Past surveys of sexual behavior have demonstrated that female sexual behavior is influenced by medical and sociocultural changes. To be most attentive to women and their sexual lives, it is important to have an understanding of the continually evolving sexual behaviors of contemporary women in the United States. The purpose of this study, the National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior (NSSHB), was to, in a national probability survey of women ages 18-92, assess the proportion of women in various age cohorts who had engaged in solo and partnered sexual activities in the past 90 days and to explore associations with participants' sexual behavior and their relationship and perceived health status. Past year frequencies of masturbation, vaginal intercourse, and anal intercourse were also assessed. A national probability sample of 2,523 women ages 18 to 92 completed a cross-sectional internet based survey about their sexual behavior. Relationship status; perceived health status; experience of solo masturbation, partnered masturbation, giving oral sex, receiving oral sex, vaginal intercourse, anal intercourse, in the past 90 days; frequency of solo masturbation, vaginal intercourse, and anal intercourse in the past year. Recent solo masturbation, oral sex, and vaginal intercourse were prevalent among women, decreased with age, and varied in their associations with relationship and perceived health status. Recent anal sex and same-sex oral sex were uncommonly reported. Solo masturbation was most frequent among women ages 18 to 39, vaginal intercourse was most frequent among women ages 18 to 29 and anal sex was infrequently reported. Contemporary women in the United States engage in a diverse range of solo and partnered sexual activities, though sexual behavior is less common and more infrequent among older age cohorts. © 2010 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

  11. Sexual behaviors, relationships, and perceived health among adult men in the United States: results from a national probability sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reece, Michael; Herbenick, Debby; Schick, Vanessa; Sanders, Stephanie A; Dodge, Brian; Fortenberry, J Dennis

    2010-10-01

    To provide a foundation for those who provide sexual health services and programs to men in the United States, the need for population-based data that describes men's sexual behaviors and their correlates remains. The purpose of this study was to, in a national probability survey of men ages 18-94 years, assess the occurrence and frequency of sexual behaviors and their associations with relationship status and health status. A national probability sample of 2,522 men aged 18 to 94 completed a cross-sectional survey about their sexual behaviors, relationship status, and health. Relationship status; health status; experience of solo masturbation, partnered masturbation, giving oral sex, receiving oral sex, vaginal intercourse and anal intercourse, in the past 90 days; frequency of solo masturbation, vaginal intercourse and anal intercourse in the past year. Masturbation, oral intercourse, and vaginal intercourse are prevalent among men throughout most of their adult life, with both occurrence and frequency varying with age and as functions of relationship type and physical health status. Masturbation is prevalent and frequent across various stages of life and for both those with and without a relational partner, with fewer men with fair to poor health reporting recent masturbation. Patterns of giving oral sex to a female partner were similar to those for receiving oral sex. Vaginal intercourse in the past 90 days was more prevalent among men in their late 20s and 30s than in the other age groups, although being reported by approximately 50% of men in the sixth and seventh decades of life. Anal intercourse and sexual interactions with other men were less common than all other sexual behaviors. Contemporary men in the United States engage in diverse solo and partnered sexual activities; however, sexual behavior is less common and more infrequent among older age cohorts. © 2010 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

  12. Updated greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emission factors and their probability distribution functions for electricity generating units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, H.; Wang, M.; Elgowainy, A.; Han, J.

    2012-01-01

    Greenhouse gas (CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O, hereinafter GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CO, NO x , VOC, PM 10 , PM 2.5 and SO x , hereinafter CAP) emission factors for various types of power plants burning various fuels with different technologies are important upstream parameters for estimating life-cycle emissions associated with alternative vehicle/fuel systems in the transportation sector, especially electric vehicles. The emission factors are typically expressed in grams of GHG or CAP per kWh of electricity generated by a specific power generation technology. This document describes our approach for updating and expanding GHG and CAP emission factors in the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model developed at Argonne National Laboratory (see Wang 1999 and the GREET website at http://greet.es.anl.gov/main) for various power generation technologies. These GHG and CAP emissions are used to estimate the impact of electricity use by stationary and transportation applications on their fuel-cycle emissions. The electricity generation mixes and the fuel shares attributable to various combustion technologies at the national, regional and state levels are also updated in this document. The energy conversion efficiencies of electric generating units (EGUs) by fuel type and combustion technology are calculated on the basis of the lower heating values of each fuel, to be consistent with the basis used in GREET for transportation fuels. On the basis of the updated GHG and CAP emission factors and energy efficiencies of EGUs, the probability distribution functions (PDFs), which are functions that describe the relative likelihood for the emission factors and energy efficiencies as random variables to take on a given value by the integral of their own probability distributions, are updated using best-fit statistical curves to characterize the uncertainties associated with GHG and CAP emissions in life-cycle modeling with GREET.

  13. Updated greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emission factors and their probability distribution functions for electricity generating units

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cai, H.; Wang, M.; Elgowainy, A.; Han, J. (Energy Systems)

    2012-07-06

    Greenhouse gas (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, hereinafter GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CO, NO{sub x}, VOC, PM{sub 10}, PM{sub 2.5} and SO{sub x}, hereinafter CAP) emission factors for various types of power plants burning various fuels with different technologies are important upstream parameters for estimating life-cycle emissions associated with alternative vehicle/fuel systems in the transportation sector, especially electric vehicles. The emission factors are typically expressed in grams of GHG or CAP per kWh of electricity generated by a specific power generation technology. This document describes our approach for updating and expanding GHG and CAP emission factors in the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model developed at Argonne National Laboratory (see Wang 1999 and the GREET website at http://greet.es.anl.gov/main) for various power generation technologies. These GHG and CAP emissions are used to estimate the impact of electricity use by stationary and transportation applications on their fuel-cycle emissions. The electricity generation mixes and the fuel shares attributable to various combustion technologies at the national, regional and state levels are also updated in this document. The energy conversion efficiencies of electric generating units (EGUs) by fuel type and combustion technology are calculated on the basis of the lower heating values of each fuel, to be consistent with the basis used in GREET for transportation fuels. On the basis of the updated GHG and CAP emission factors and energy efficiencies of EGUs, the probability distribution functions (PDFs), which are functions that describe the relative likelihood for the emission factors and energy efficiencies as random variables to take on a given value by the integral of their own probability distributions, are updated using best-fit statistical curves to characterize the uncertainties associated with GHG and CAP emissions in life

  14. Sexual behavior in the United States: results from a national probability sample of men and women ages 14-94.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbenick, Debby; Reece, Michael; Schick, Vanessa; Sanders, Stephanie A; Dodge, Brian; Fortenberry, J Dennis

    2010-10-01

    Despite a demonstrated relationship between sexual behaviors and health, including clinical risks, little is known about contemporary sexual behavior. To assess the rates of sexual behavior among adolescents and adults in the United States. We report the recent (past month, past year) and lifetime prevalence of sexual behaviors in a nationally representative probability sample of 5,865 men and women ages 14 to 94 in the United States (2,936 men, 2,929 women). Behaviors assessed included solo masturbation, partnered masturbation, giving and receiving oral sex, vaginal intercourse, and anal intercourse. Masturbation was common throughout the lifespan and more common than partnered sexual activities during adolescence and older age (70+). Although uncommon among 14- to 15-year olds, in the past year 18.3% of 16- to 17-year-old males and 22.4% of 16- to 17-year-old females performed oral sex with an other-sex partner. Also in the past year, more than half of women and men ages 18 to 49 engaged in oral sex. The proportion of adults who reported vaginal sex in the past year was highest among men ages 25-39 and for women ages 20-29, then progressively declined among older age groups. More than 20% of men ages 25-49 and women ages 20-39 reported anal sex in the past year. Same-sex sexual behaviors occurring in the past year were uncommonly reported. Men and women engage in a diverse range of solo and partnered sexual behaviors throughout the life course. The rates of contemporary sexual behavior provided in this report will be valuable to those who develop, implement, and evaluate programs that seek to improve societal knowledge related to the prevalence of sexual behaviors and to sexual health clinicians whose work to improve sexual health among the population often requires such rates of behavior. © 2010 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

  15. Between Certainty and Uncertainty Statistics and Probability in Five Units with Notes on Historical Origins and Illustrative Numerical Examples

    CERN Document Server

    Laudański, Ludomir M

    2013-01-01

    „Between Certainty & Uncertainty” is a one-of–a-kind short course on statistics for students, engineers  and researchers.  It is a fascinating introduction to statistics and probability with notes on historical origins and 80 illustrative numerical examples organized in the five units:   ·         Chapter 1  Descriptive Statistics:  Compressing small samples, basic averages - mean and variance, their main properties including God’s proof; linear transformations and z-scored statistics .   ·         Chapter 2 Grouped data: Udny Yule’s concept of qualitative and quantitative variables. Grouping these two kinds of data. Graphical tools. Combinatorial rules and qualitative variables.  Designing frequency histogram. Direct and coded evaluation of quantitative data. Significance of percentiles.   ·         Chapter 3 Regression and correlation: Geometrical distance and equivalent distances in two orthogonal directions  as a prerequisite to the concept of two regressi...

  16. Transgender Population Size in the United States: a Meta-Regression of Population-Based Probability Samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sevelius, Jae M.

    2017-01-01

    Background. Transgender individuals have a gender identity that differs from the sex they were assigned at birth. The population size of transgender individuals in the United States is not well-known, in part because official records, including the US Census, do not include data on gender identity. Population surveys today more often collect transgender-inclusive gender-identity data, and secular trends in culture and the media have created a somewhat more favorable environment for transgender people. Objectives. To estimate the current population size of transgender individuals in the United States and evaluate any trend over time. Search methods. In June and July 2016, we searched PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and Web of Science for national surveys, as well as “gray” literature, through an Internet search. We limited the search to 2006 through 2016. Selection criteria. We selected population-based surveys that used probability sampling and included self-reported transgender-identity data. Data collection and analysis. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool eligible surveys and used meta-regression to address our hypothesis that the transgender population size estimate would increase over time. We used subsample and leave-one-out analysis to assess for bias. Main results. Our meta-regression model, based on 12 surveys covering 2007 to 2015, explained 62.5% of model heterogeneity, with a significant effect for each unit increase in survey year (F = 17.122; df = 1,10; b = 0.026%; P = .002). Extrapolating these results to 2016 suggested a current US population size of 390 adults per 100 000, or almost 1 million adults nationally. This estimate may be more indicative for younger adults, who represented more than 50% of the respondents in our analysis. Authors’ conclusions. Future national surveys are likely to observe higher numbers of transgender people. The large variety in questions used to ask

  17. Attitudes toward Bisexual Men and Women among a Nationally Representative Probability Sample of Adults in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbenick, Debby; Friedman, M. Reuel; Schick, Vanessa; Fu, Tsung-Chieh (Jane); Bostwick, Wendy; Bartelt, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Laboy, Miguel; Pletta, David; Reece, Michael; Sandfort, Theo G. M.

    2016-01-01

    As bisexual individuals in the United States (U.S.) face significant health disparities, researchers have posited that these differences may be fueled, at least in part, by negative attitudes, prejudice, stigma, and discrimination toward bisexual individuals from heterosexual and gay/lesbian individuals. Previous studies of individual and social attitudes toward bisexual men and women have been conducted almost exclusively with convenience samples, with limited generalizability to the broader U.S. population. Our study provides an assessment of attitudes toward bisexual men and women among a nationally representative probability sample of heterosexual, gay, lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. Data were collected from the 2015 National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior (NSSHB), via an online questionnaire with a probability sample of adults (18 years and over) from throughout the U.S. We included two modified 5-item versions of the Bisexualities: Indiana Attitudes Scale (BIAS), validated sub-scales that were developed to measure attitudes toward bisexual men and women. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, gamma regression, and paired t-tests. Gender, sexual identity, age, race/ethnicity, income, and educational attainment were all significantly associated with participants' attitudes toward bisexual individuals. In terms of responses to individual scale items, participants were most likely to “neither agree nor disagree” with all attitudinal statements. Across sexual identities, self-identified other participants reported the most positive attitudes, while heterosexual male participants reported the least positive attitudes. As in previous research on convenience samples, we found a wide range of demographic characteristics were related with attitudes toward bisexual individuals in our nationally-representative study of heterosexual, gay/lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. In particular, gender emerged as a significant

  18. Attitudes toward Bisexual Men and Women among a Nationally Representative Probability Sample of Adults in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodge, Brian; Herbenick, Debby; Friedman, M Reuel; Schick, Vanessa; Fu, Tsung-Chieh Jane; Bostwick, Wendy; Bartelt, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Laboy, Miguel; Pletta, David; Reece, Michael; Sandfort, Theo G M

    2016-01-01

    As bisexual individuals in the United States (U.S.) face significant health disparities, researchers have posited that these differences may be fueled, at least in part, by negative attitudes, prejudice, stigma, and discrimination toward bisexual individuals from heterosexual and gay/lesbian individuals. Previous studies of individual and social attitudes toward bisexual men and women have been conducted almost exclusively with convenience samples, with limited generalizability to the broader U.S. Our study provides an assessment of attitudes toward bisexual men and women among a nationally representative probability sample of heterosexual, gay, lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. Data were collected from the 2015 National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior (NSSHB), via an online questionnaire with a probability sample of adults (18 years and over) from throughout the U.S. We included two modified 5-item versions of the Bisexualities: Indiana Attitudes Scale (BIAS), validated sub-scales that were developed to measure attitudes toward bisexual men and women. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, gamma regression, and paired t-tests. Gender, sexual identity, age, race/ethnicity, income, and educational attainment were all significantly associated with participants' attitudes toward bisexual individuals. In terms of responses to individual scale items, participants were most likely to "neither agree nor disagree" with all attitudinal statements. Across sexual identities, self-identified other participants reported the most positive attitudes, while heterosexual male participants reported the least positive attitudes. As in previous research on convenience samples, we found a wide range of demographic characteristics were related with attitudes toward bisexual individuals in our nationally-representative study of heterosexual, gay/lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. In particular, gender emerged as a significant characteristic

  19. Condom use during most recent vaginal intercourse event among a probability sample of adults in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Stephanie A; Reece, Michael; Herbenick, Debby; Schick, Vanessa; Dodge, Brian; Fortenberry, J Dennis

    2010-10-01

    Correct and consistent condom use remains the most effective way to reduce sexually transmissible infection/HIV transmission during sex and is a highly effective contraceptive method. Understanding correlates of condom use is vital to public health programs. To explore sociodemographic, event characteristics, and experiential correlates of condom use at last penile-vaginal intercourse (PVI). Survey data were collected from a nationally representative probability sample of adults in the United States as part of the National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior. Condom use/non-use at most recent PVI was the main outcome. Logistic regression analyses predicted condom use from sociodemographic variables (i.e., age, education, race/ethnicity, sexual orientation, health status, type of relationship with sexual partner) and event characteristics (i.e., location of sexual encounter, prior intercourse experience with partner, whether partner had other sex partners in the 6 months prior to sex with the participant; other contraceptive use, alcohol use, marijuana use, and for men, erection medication use). Logistic regression analyses examined evaluations of the sexual aspects of the experience (pleasure, arousal, erection/lubrication difficulty, participant orgasm, partner orgasm) in light of condom use. Condom-protected PVI was significantly greater among younger people, blacks and Hispanics, and those having PVI with a nonrelationship partner. Statistically adjusting for these differences, condom use was significantly associated with fewer previous intercourse experiences with the partner and not using other forms of contraception. The sexual aspects of experience were evaluated similarly regardless of whether or not a condom was used. Public health programs among youths and minorities may underlie higher condom use rates among these groups. Condom use may be further improved by continuing such programs and also expanding outreach to older persons and whites, suggesting

  20. Operational Simulation Tools and Long Term Strategic Planning for High Penetrations of PV in the Southeastern United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuohy, Aidan [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Smith, Jeff [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Rylander, Matt [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Singhvi, Vikas [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Enbar, Nadav [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Coley, Steven [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Roark, Jeff [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Ela, Erik [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Lannoye, Eamonn [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Pilbrick, Charles Russ [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Rudkevich, Alex [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Hansen, Cliff [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2016-07-11

    Increasing levels of distributed and utility scale Solar Photovoltaics (PV) will have an impact on many utility functions, including distribution system operations, bulk system performance, business models and scheduling of generation. In this project, EPRI worked with Southern Company Services and its affiliates and the Tennessee Valley Authority to assist these utilities in their strategic planning efforts for integrating PV, based on modeling, simulation and analysis using a set of innovative tools. Advanced production simulation models were used to investigate operating reserve requirements. To leverage existing work and datasets, this last task was carried out on the California system. Overall, the project resulted in providing useful information to both of the utilities involved and through the final reports and interactions during the project. The results from this project can be used to inform the industry about new and improved methodologies for understanding solar PV penetration, and will influence ongoing and future research. This report summarizes each of the topics investigated over the 2.5-year project period.

  1. Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Melucci, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

  2. Sexual diversity in the United States: Results from a nationally representative probability sample of adult women and men.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debby Herbenick

    Full Text Available In 2015, we conducted a cross-sectional, Internet-based, U.S. nationally representative probability survey of 2,021 adults (975 men, 1,046 women focused on a broad range of sexual behaviors. Individuals invited to participate were from the GfK KnowledgePanel®. The survey was titled the 2015 Sexual Exploration in America Study and survey completion took about 12 to 15 minutes. The survey was confidential and the researchers never had access to respondents' identifiers. Respondents reported on demographic items, lifetime and recent sexual behaviors, and the appeal of 50+ sexual behaviors. Most (>80% reported lifetime masturbation, vaginal sex, and oral sex. Lifetime anal sex was reported by 43% of men (insertive and 37% of women (receptive. Common lifetime sexual behaviors included wearing sexy lingerie/underwear (75% women, 26% men, sending/receiving digital nude/semi-nude photos (54% women, 65% men, reading erotic stories (57% of participants, public sex (≥43%, role-playing (≥22%, tying/being tied up (≥20%, spanking (≥30%, and watching sexually explicit videos/DVDs (60% women, 82% men. Having engaged in threesomes (10% women, 18% men and playful whipping (≥13% were less common. Lifetime group sex, sex parties, taking a sexuality class/workshop, and going to BDSM parties were uncommon (each <8%. More Americans identified behaviors as "appealing" than had engaged in them. Romantic/affectionate behaviors were among those most commonly identified as appealing for both men and women. The appeal of particular behaviors was associated with greater odds that the individual had ever engaged in the behavior. This study contributes to our understanding of more diverse adult sexual behaviors than has previously been captured in U.S. nationally representative probability surveys. Implications for sexuality educators, clinicians, and individuals in the general population are discussed.

  3. Sexual diversity in the United States: Results from a nationally representative probability sample of adult women and men

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbenick, Debby; Bowling, Jessamyn; Fu, Tsung-Chieh (Jane); Guerra-Reyes, Lucia; Sanders, Stephanie

    2017-01-01

    In 2015, we conducted a cross-sectional, Internet-based, U.S. nationally representative probability survey of 2,021 adults (975 men, 1,046 women) focused on a broad range of sexual behaviors. Individuals invited to participate were from the GfK KnowledgePanel®. The survey was titled the 2015 Sexual Exploration in America Study and survey completion took about 12 to 15 minutes. The survey was confidential and the researchers never had access to respondents’ identifiers. Respondents reported on demographic items, lifetime and recent sexual behaviors, and the appeal of 50+ sexual behaviors. Most (>80%) reported lifetime masturbation, vaginal sex, and oral sex. Lifetime anal sex was reported by 43% of men (insertive) and 37% of women (receptive). Common lifetime sexual behaviors included wearing sexy lingerie/underwear (75% women, 26% men), sending/receiving digital nude/semi-nude photos (54% women, 65% men), reading erotic stories (57% of participants), public sex (≥43%), role-playing (≥22%), tying/being tied up (≥20%), spanking (≥30%), and watching sexually explicit videos/DVDs (60% women, 82% men). Having engaged in threesomes (10% women, 18% men) and playful whipping (≥13%) were less common. Lifetime group sex, sex parties, taking a sexuality class/workshop, and going to BDSM parties were uncommon (each <8%). More Americans identified behaviors as “appealing” than had engaged in them. Romantic/affectionate behaviors were among those most commonly identified as appealing for both men and women. The appeal of particular behaviors was associated with greater odds that the individual had ever engaged in the behavior. This study contributes to our understanding of more diverse adult sexual behaviors than has previously been captured in U.S. nationally representative probability surveys. Implications for sexuality educators, clinicians, and individuals in the general population are discussed. PMID:28727762

  4. Chemical Penetration Enhancers for Transdermal Drug Delivery ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    for transdermal administration. The permeation of drug through skin can be enhanced by both chemical penetration enhancement and physical methods. In this review, we have discussed the chemical penetration enhancement technology for transdermal drug delivery as well as the probable mechanisms of action.

  5. Gene conversion of ribosomal DNA in Nicotiana tabacum is associated with undermethylated, decondensed and probably active gene units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, K Y; Kovarik, A; Matýăsek, R; Bezdĕk, M; Lichtenstein, C P; Leitch, A R

    2000-06-01

    We examined the structure, intranuclear distribution and activity of ribosomal DNA (rDNA) in Nicotiana sylvestris (2n = 2x = 24) and N. tomentosiformis (2n = 2x = 24) and compared these with patterns in N. tabacum (tobacco, 2n = 4x = 48). We also examined a long-established N. tabacum culture, TBY-2. Nicotiana tabacum is an allotetraploid thought to be derived from ancestors of N. sylvestris (S-genome donor) and N. tomentosiformis (T-genome donor). Nicotiana sylvestris has three rDNA loci, one locus each on chromosomes 10, 11, and 12. In root-tip meristematic interphase cells, the site on chromosome 12 remains condensed and inactive, while the sites on chromosomes 10 and 11 show activity at the proximal end of the locus only. Nicotiana tomentosiformis has one major locus on chromosome 3 showing activity and a minor, inactive locus on chromosome 11. In N. tabacum cv. 095-55, there are four rDNA loci on T3, S10, S11/t and S12 (S11/t carries a small T-genome translocation). The locus on S12 remains condensed and inactive in root-tip meristematic cells while the others show activity, including decondensation at interphase and secondary constrictions at metaphase. Nicotiana tabacum DNA digested with methylcytosine-sensitive enzymes revealed a hybridisation pattern for rDNA that resembled that of N. tomentosiformis and not N. sylvestris. The data indicate that active, undermethylated genes are of the N. tomentosiformis type. Since S-genome chromosomes of N. tabacum show rDNA expression, the result indicates rDNA gene conversion of the active rDNA units on these chromosomes. Gene conversion in N. tabacum is consistent with the results of previous work. However, using primers specific for the S-genome rDNA intergenic sequences (IGS) in the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) show that rDNA gene conversion has not gone to completion in N. tabacum. Furthermore, using methylation-insensitive restriction enzymes we demonstrate that about 8% of the rDNA units remain of the N

  6. United States streamflow probabilities and uncertainties based on anticipated El Niño, water year 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M.; Cayan, D.; Redmond, K.

    2002-01-01

    During the course of spring and summer 2002, tropical sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean have warmed and the wind and pressure fields have shifted, so that by August, there was considerable confidence that water year (October–September) 2003 will be characterized by a weak to mild El Niño climate (http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/200208/QuickLook.html). At the same time, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern of sea-surface temperatures in the North Pacific (Mantua et al., 1997) has shifted towards a more neutral state than in the past several years and will not be considered in detail here. Previous studies of the connections between El Niños and streamflow in the United States by the authors (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., 2001) indicate that El Niño conditions influence historical streamflow distributions to varying extents. These conclusions, along with those of other researchers, suggest that foreknowledge of El Niño conditions can inform seasonal outlooks for streamflows throughout the Americas and elsewhere. For example, Dettinger et al. (2001), as distilled here into Fig. 1, showed that historical annual streamflow totals have correlated negatively with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, which is negatively associated with El Niños) in the U.S. Southwest as well as in the subtropics of South America, and correlate positively in the U.S. Northwest, in much of tropical South America, and, perhaps, in southernmost South America. These interhemispheric bands of El Niño influence are a matter of considerable concern for water- and land-managers throughout the Americas, and expand upon results from previous studies in the western United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992), including a recent analysis by Pizarro and Lall (2002), where water availability and hydrologic extremes are particularly pressing issues.

  7. Ruin probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

    The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

  8. Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

    2004-01-01

    We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

  9. Probability-1

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, Albert N

    2016-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

  10. Ignition Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

  11. Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

  12. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

  13. Generic penetration in the retail antidepressant market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventimiglia, Jeffrey; Kalali, Amir H

    2010-06-01

    In this article, we explore the accelerated penetration of generic antidepressants in the United States market following the availability of generic citalopram and sertraline. Analysis suggests that overall, generic penetration into the antidepressant market has grown from approximately 41 percent in January 2004 to over 73 percent in January 2010. Similar trends are uncovered when branded and generic prescriptions are analyzed by specialty.

  14. Probability tales

    CERN Document Server

    Grinstead, Charles M; Snell, J Laurie

    2011-01-01

    This book explores four real-world topics through the lens of probability theory. It can be used to supplement a standard text in probability or statistics. Most elementary textbooks present the basic theory and then illustrate the ideas with some neatly packaged examples. Here the authors assume that the reader has seen, or is learning, the basic theory from another book and concentrate in some depth on the following topics: streaks, the stock market, lotteries, and fingerprints. This extended format allows the authors to present multiple approaches to problems and to pursue promising side discussions in ways that would not be possible in a book constrained to cover a fixed set of topics. To keep the main narrative accessible, the authors have placed the more technical mathematical details in appendices. The appendices can be understood by someone who has taken one or two semesters of calculus.

  15. Probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Dorogovtsev, A Ya; Skorokhod, A V; Silvestrov, D S; Skorokhod, A V

    1997-01-01

    This book of problems is intended for students in pure and applied mathematics. There are problems in traditional areas of probability theory and problems in the theory of stochastic processes, which has wide applications in the theory of automatic control, queuing and reliability theories, and in many other modern science and engineering fields. Answers to most of the problems are given, and the book provides hints and solutions for more complicated problems.

  16. Market penetration rates of new energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, Peter

    2006-01-01

    The market penetration rates of 11 different new energy technologies were studied covering energy production and end-use technologies. The penetration rates were determined by fitting observed market data to an epidemical diffusion model. The analyses show that the exponential penetration rates of new energy technologies may vary from 4 up to over 40%/yr. The corresponding take-over times from a 1% to 50% share of the estimated market potential may vary from less than 10 to 70 years. The lower rate is often associated with larger energy impacts. Short take-over times less than 25 years seem to be mainly associated with end-use technologies. Public policies and subsides have an important effect on the penetration. Some technologies penetrate fast without major support explained by technology maturity and competitive prices, e.g. compact fluorescent lamps show a 24.2%/yr growth rate globally. The penetration rates determined exhibit some uncertainty as penetration has not always proceeded close to saturation. The study indicates a decreasing penetration rate with increasing time or market share. If the market history is short, a temporally decreasing functional form for the penetration rate coefficient could be used to anticipate the probable behavior

  17. The development and validation of the Male Genital Self-Image Scale: results from a nationally representative probability sample of men in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbenick, Debby; Schick, Vanessa; Reece, Michael; Sanders, Stephanie A; Fortenberry, J Dennis

    2013-06-01

    Numerous factors may affect men's sexual experiences, including their health status, past trauma or abuse, medication use, relationships, mood, anxiety, and body image. Little research has assessed the influence of men's genital self-image on their sexual function or behaviors and none has done so in a nationally representative sample. The purpose of this study was to, in a nationally representative probability sample of men ages 18 to 60, assess the reliability and validity of the Male Genital Self-Image Scale (MGSIS), and to examine the relationship between scores on the MGSIS and men's scores on the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF). The MGSIS was developed in two stages. Phase One involved a review of the literature and an analysis of cross-sectional survey data. Phase Two involved an administration of the scale items to a nationally representative sample of men in the United States ages 18 to 60. Measures include demographic items, the IIEF, and the MGSIS. Overall, most men felt positively about their genitals. However, 24.6% of men expressed some discomfort letting a healthcare provider examine their genitals and about 20% reported dissatisfaction with their genital size. The MGSIS was found to be reliable and valid, with the MGSIS-5 (consisting of five items) being the best fit to the data. The MGSIS was found to be a reliable and valid measure. In addition, men's scores on the MGSIS-5 were found to be positively related to men's scores on the IIEF. © 2013 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

  18. Allowable CO2 concentrations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a function of the climate sensitivity probability distribution function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L D Danny

    2007-01-01

    Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls for stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at levels that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) in the climate system. Until recently, the consensus viewpoint was that the climate sensitivity (the global mean equilibrium warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentration) was 'likely' to fall between 1.5 and 4.5 K. However, a number of recent studies have generated probability distribution functions (pdfs) for climate sensitivity with the 95th percentile of the expected climate sensitivity as large as 10 K, while some studies suggest that the climate sensitivity is likely to fall in the lower half of the long-standing 1.5-4.5 K range. This paper examines the allowable CO 2 concentration as a function of the 95th percentile of the climate sensitivity pdf (ranging from 2 to 8 K) and for the following additional assumptions: (i) the 50th percentile for the pdf of the minimum sustained global mean warming that causes unacceptable harm equal to 1.5 or 2.5 K; and (ii) 1%, 5% or 10% allowable risks of unacceptable harm. For a 1% risk tolerance and the more stringent harm-threshold pdf, the allowable CO 2 concentration ranges from 323 to 268 ppmv as the 95th percentile of the climate sensitivity pdf increases from 2 to 8 K, while for a 10% risk tolerance and the less stringent harm-threshold pdf, the allowable CO 2 concentration ranges from 531 to 305 ppmv. In both cases it is assumed that non-CO 2 GHG radiative forcing can be reduced to half of its present value, otherwise; the allowable CO 2 concentration is even smaller. Accounting for the fact that the CO 2 concentration will gradually fall if emissions are reduced to zero, and that peak realized warming will then be less than the peak equilibrium warming (related to peak radiative forcing) allows the CO 2 concentration to peak at 10-40 ppmv higher than the limiting values given above for a climate

  19. Penetration of Recommended Procedures for Lung Cancer Staging and Management in the United States Over 10 Years: A Quality Research in Radiation Oncology Survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Komaki, Ritsuko, E-mail: rkomaki@mdanderson.org [University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Khalid, Najma [American College of Radiology, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Langer, Corey J. [Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Kong, Feng-Ming [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Owen, Jean B.; Crozier, Cheryl L. [American College of Radiology, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Wilson, J. Frank [Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin (United States); Wei, Xiong [University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Movsas, Benjamin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Henry Ford Hospital, Detroit, Michigan (United States)

    2013-03-15

    Purpose: To document the penetration of clinical trial results, practice guidelines, and appropriateness criteria into national practice, we compared the use of components of staging and treatment for lung cancer among patients treated in 2006-2007 with those used in patients treated in 1998-1999. Methods and Materials: Patient, staging work-up, and treatment characteristics were extracted from the process survey database of the Quality Research in Radiation Oncology (QRRO), consisting of records of 340 patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC) at 44 institutions and of 144 patients with limited-stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) at 39 institutions. Data were compared for patients treated in 2006-2007 versus those for patients treated in 1998-1999. Results: Use of all recommended procedures for staging and treatment was more common in 2006-2007. Specifically, disease was staged with brain imaging (magnetic resonance imaging or computed tomography) and whole-body imaging (positron emission tomography or bone scanning) in 66% of patients with LA-NSCLC in 2006-2007 (vs 42% in 1998-1999, P=.0001) and in 84% of patients with LS-SCLC in 2006-2007 (vs 58.3% in 1998-1999, P=.0011). Concurrent chemoradiation was used for 77% of LA-NSCLC patients (vs 45% in 1998-1999, P<.0001) and for 90% of LS-SCLC patients (vs 62.5% in 1998-1999, P<.0001). Use of the recommended radiation dose (59-74 Gy for NSCLC and 60-70 Gy as once-daily therapy for SCLC) did not change appreciably, being 88% for NSCLC in both periods and 51% (2006-2007) versus 43% (1998-1999) for SCLC. Twice-daily radiation for SCLC was used for 21% of patients in 2006-2007 versus 8% in 1998-1999. Finally, 49% of patients with LS-SCLC received prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) in 2006-2007 (vs 21% in 1998-1999). Conclusions: Although adherence to all quality indicators improved over time, brain imaging and recommended radiation doses for stage III NSCLC were used in <90% of cases. Use

  20. Metasploit penetration testing cookbook

    CERN Document Server

    Agarwal, Monika

    2013-01-01

    This book follows a Cookbook style with recipes explaining the steps for penetration testing with WLAN, VOIP, and even cloud computing. There is plenty of code and commands used to make your learning curve easy and quick.This book targets both professional penetration testers as well as new users of Metasploit, who wish to gain expertise over the framework and learn an additional skill of penetration testing, not limited to a particular OS. The book requires basic knowledge of scanning, exploitation, and the Ruby language.

  1. Penetration testing with Perl

    CERN Document Server

    Berdeaux, Douglas

    2014-01-01

    If you are an expert Perl programmer interested in penetration testing or information security, this guide is designed for you. However, it will also be helpful for you even if you have little or no Linux shell experience.

  2. penetrating abdominal trauma

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    gender, mechanism of injury, injury severity scores (ISS), penetrating ... ileus, reduced pulmonary function and loss of muscle mass and function, all of .... pathophysiology and rehabilitation. ... quality of life after surgery for colorectal cancer.

  3. Barrier penetration database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fainberg, A.; Bieber, A.M. Jr.

    1978-11-01

    This document is intended to supply the NRC and nuclear power plant licensees with basic data on the times required to penetrate forcibly the types of barriers commonly found in nuclear plants. These times are necessary for design and evaluation of the physical protection system required under 10CFR73.55. Each barrier listed is described in detail. Minor variations in basic barrier construction that result in the same penetration time, are also described

  4. Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Saad, Emad

    2013-01-01

    Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

  5. Study on Penetration Characteristics of Tungsten Cylindrical Penetrator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jo, Jong Hyun; Lee, Young Shin; Kim, Jae Hoon [Chungnam Nat' l Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Bae, Yong Woon [Agency for Defense Development, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-09-15

    The design of missile require extremely small warheads that must be highly efficient and lethal. The penetration characteristics of each penetrator and the total number of penetrators on the warhead are obvious key factors that influence warhead lethality. The design of the penetrator shape and size are directly related to the space and weight of the warhead. The design of the penetrator L/D was directly related to the space and weight of the warhead. L and D are the length and the diameter of the projectile, respectively. The AUTODYN-3a code was used to study the effect of penetrator penetration. The objective of numerical analysis was to determine the penetration characteristics of penetrator produced by hypervelocity impacts under different initial conditions such as initial velocity, obliquity angle and L/D of penetrator. The residual velocity and residual mass were decreased with increasing initial impact velocity under L/D{<=}4.

  6. Penetration portion shielding structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Katsumi; Narita, Hitoshi; Handa, Hiroyuki; Takeuchi, Jun; Tozuka, Fumio.

    1994-01-01

    Openings of a plurality of shieldings for penetration members are aligned to each other, and penetration members are inserted from the openings. Then, the openings of the plurality of shielding members are slightly displaced with each other to make the penetration portions into a helical configuration, so that leakage of radiation is reduced. Upon removal of the members, reverse operation is conducted. When a flowable shielding material is used, the penetration portions are constituted with two plates having previously formed openings and pipes for connecting the openings with each other and a vessel covering the entire of them. After passing the penetration members such as a cable, the relative position of the two plates is changed by twisting, to form a helical configuration which reduces radiation leakage. Since they are bent into the helical configuration, shielding performance is extremely improved compared with a case that radiation leakage is caused from an opening of a straight pipe. In addition, since they can be returned to straight pipes, attachment, detachment and maintenance can be conducted easily. (N.H.)

  7. Scaling Qualitative Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2017-01-01

    There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

  8. Ground penetrating radar

    CERN Document Server

    Daniels, David J

    2004-01-01

    Ground-penetrating radar has come to public attention in recent criminal investigations, but has actually been a developing and maturing remote sensing field for some time. In the light of recent expansion of the technique to a wide range of applications, the need for an up-to-date reference has become pressing. This fully revised and expanded edition of the best-selling Surface-Penetrating Radar (IEE, 1996) presents, for the non-specialist user or engineer, all the key elements of this technique, which span several disciplines including electromagnetics, geophysics and signal processing. The

  9. Skull penetrating wound

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Orlandi, Yvei; Junco Martin, Reinel; Rojas Manresa, Jorge; Duboy Limonta, Victor; Matos Herrera, Omar; Saez Corvo, Yunet

    2011-01-01

    The cranioencephalic trauma is common in the emergence centers to care for patients with multiple traumata and it becames in a health problem in many countries. Skull penetrating trauma is located in a special place due to its low frequency. In present paper a case of male patient aged 52 severely skull-injured with penetrating wound caused by a cold steel that remained introduced into the left frontotemporal region. After an imaging study the emergence surgical treatment was applied and patient evolves adequately after 25 days of hospitalization. Nowadays, she is under rehabilitation treatment due to a residual right hemiparesis.(author)

  10. New Metrics for Evaluating Technical Benefits and Risks of DGs Increasing Penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Akbari, Mohammad Amin; Aghaei, Jamshid; Barani, Mostafa

    2017-01-01

    and risks should be qualified and quantified. This paper introduces several probabilistic indices to evaluate the potential operational effects of increasing penetration of renewable DG units such as wind power and photovoltaic on rural distribution network with the aid of evaluating technical benefits...... and risks trade-offs. A probabilistic generation-load model is suggested to calculate these indices which combine a large number of possible operating conditions of renewable DG units with their probabilities. Temporal and annual indices of voltage profile and line flow related attributes such as Interest...... Voltage Rise (IVR), Risky Voltage Rise (RVR), Risky Voltage Down (RVD), Line Loss Reduction (LLR), Line Loss Increment (LLI) and Line overload flow (LOF) are introduced using probability and expected values of their occurrence. Also, to measure the overall interests and risks of installing DG, composite...

  11. Tumor penetrating peptides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tambet eTeesalu

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Tumor-homing peptides can be used to deliver drugs into tumors. Phage library screening in live mice has recently identified homing peptides that specifically recognize the endothelium of tumor vessels, extravasate, and penetrate deep into the extravascular tumor tissue. The prototypic peptide of this class, iRGD (CRGDKGPDC, contains the integrin-binding RGD motif. RGD mediates tumor homing through binding to αv integrins, which are selectively expressed on various cells in tumors, including tumor endothelial cells. The tumor-penetrating properties of iRGD are mediated by a second sequence motif, R/KXXR/K. This C-end Rule (or CendR motif is active only when the second basic residue is exposed at the C-terminus of the peptide. Proteolytic processing of iRGD in tumors activates the cryptic CendR motif, which then binds to neuropilin-1 activating an endocytic bulk transport pathway through tumor tissue. Phage screening has also yielded tumor-penetrating peptides that function like iRGD in activating the CendR pathway, but bind to a different primary receptor. Moreover, novel tumor-homing peptides can be constructed from tumor-homing motifs, CendR elements and protease cleavage sites. Pathologies other than tumors can be targeted with tissue-penetrating peptides, and the primary receptor can also be a vascular zip code of a normal tissue. The CendR technology provides a solution to a major problem in tumor therapy, poor penetration of drugs into tumors. The tumor-penetrating peptides are capable of taking a payload deep into tumor tissue in mice, and they also penetrate into human tumors ex vivo. Targeting with these peptides specifically increases the accumulation in tumors of a variety of drugs and contrast agents, such as doxorubicin, antibodies and nanoparticle-based compounds. Remarkably the drug to be targeted does not have to be coupled to the peptide; the bulk transport system activated by the peptide sweeps along any compound that is

  12. HMO penetration and the geographic mobility of practicing physicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polsky, D; Kletke, P R; Wozniak, G D; Escarce, J J

    2000-09-01

    In this study, we assessed the influence of changes in health maintenance organization (HMO) penetration on the probability that established patient care physicians relocated their practices or left patient care altogether. For physicians who relocated their practices, we also assessed the impact of HMO penetration on their destination choices. We found that larger increases in HMO penetration decreased the probability that medical/surgical specialists in early career stayed in patient care in the same market, but had no impact on generalists, hospital-based specialists, or mid career medical/surgical specialists. We also found that physicians who relocated their practices were much more likely to choose destination markets with the same level of HMO penetration or lower HMO penetration compared with their origin markets than they were to choose destination markets with higher HMO penetration. The largely negligible impact of changes in HMO penetration on established physicians' decisions to relocate their practices or leave patient care is consistent with high relocation and switching costs. Relocating physicians' attraction to destination markets with the same level of HMO penetration as their origin markets suggests that, while physicians' styles of medical practice may adapt to changes in market conditions, learning new practice styles is costly.

  13. On Probability Leakage

    OpenAIRE

    Briggs, William M.

    2012-01-01

    The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

  14. Probability 1/e

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  15. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Goldberg, Samuel

    1960-01-01

    Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

  16. Probability mapping of contaminants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); McGraw, M.A. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Istok, J.D. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Sigda, J.M. [New Mexico Inst. of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM (United States)

    1994-04-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds).

  17. Probability mapping of contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G.; McGraw, M.A.; Istok, J.D.; Sigda, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds)

  18. Probable maximum flood control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeGabriele, C.E.; Wu, C.L.

    1991-11-01

    This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility

  19. Antibody tumor penetration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurber, Greg M.; Schmidt, Michael M.; Wittrup, K. Dane

    2009-01-01

    Antibodies have proven to be effective agents in cancer imaging and therapy. One of the major challenges still facing the field is the heterogeneous distribution of these agents in tumors when administered systemically. Large regions of untargeted cells can therefore escape therapy and potentially select for more resistant cells. We present here a summary of theoretical and experimental approaches to analyze and improve antibody penetration in tumor tissue. PMID:18541331

  20. Python penetration testing essentials

    CERN Document Server

    Mohit

    2015-01-01

    If you are a Python programmer or a security researcher who has basic knowledge of Python programming and want to learn about penetration testing with the help of Python, this book is ideal for you. Even if you are new to the field of ethical hacking, this book can help you find the vulnerabilities in your system so that you are ready to tackle any kind of attack or intrusion.

  1. Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

    2004-01-01

    Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

  2. Relations that affect the probability and prediction of nitrate concentration in private wells in the glacial aquifer system in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Kelly L.; Arnold, Terri L.

    2010-01-01

    Nitrate in private wells in the glacial aquifer system is a concern for an estimated 17 million people using private wells because of the proximity of many private wells to nitrogen sources. Yet, less than 5 percent of private wells sampled in this study contained nitrate in concentrations that exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 10 mg/L (milligrams per liter) as N (nitrogen). However, this small group with nitrate concentrations above the USEPA MCL includes some of the highest nitrate concentrations detected in groundwater from private wells (77 mg/L). Median nitrate concentration measured in groundwater from private wells in the glacial aquifer system (0.11 mg/L as N) is lower than that in water from other unconsolidated aquifers and is not strongly related to surface sources of nitrate. Background concentration of nitrate is less than 1 mg/L as N. Although overall nitrate concentration in private wells was low relative to the MCL, concentrations were highly variable over short distances and at various depths below land surface. Groundwater from wells in the glacial aquifer system at all depths was a mixture of old and young water. Oxidation and reduction potential changes with depth and groundwater age were important influences on nitrate concentrations in private wells. A series of 10 logistic regression models was developed to estimate the probability of nitrate concentration above various thresholds. The threshold concentration (1 to 10 mg/L) affected the number of variables in the model. Fewer explanatory variables are needed to predict nitrate at higher threshold concentrations. The variables that were identified as significant predictors for nitrate concentration above 4 mg/L as N included well characteristics such as open-interval diameter, open-interval length, and depth to top of open interval. Environmental variables in the models were mean percent silt in soil, soil type, and mean depth to

  3. Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassinelli, G.

    1979-01-01

    The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)

  4. Penetrating ureteral trauma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo P. Fraga

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this series is to report our experience in managing ureteral trauma, focusing on the importance of early diagnosis, correct treatment, and the impact of associated injuries on the management and morbid-mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From January 1994 to December 2002, 1487 laparotomies for abdominal trauma were performed and 20 patients with ureteral lesions were identified, all of them secondary to penetrating injury. Medical charts were analyzed as well as information about trauma mechanisms, diagnostic routine, treatment and outcome. RESULTS: All patients were men. Mean age was 27 years. The mechanisms of injury were gunshot wounds in 18 cases (90% and stab wounds in two (10%. All penetrating abdominal injuries had primary indication of laparotomy, and neither excretory urography nor computed tomography were used in any case before surgery. The diagnosis of ureteric injury was made intra-operatively in 17 cases (85%. Two ureteral injuries (10% were initially missed. All patients had associated injuries. The treatment was dictated by the location, extension and time necessary to identify the injury. The overall incidence of complications was 55%. The presence of shock on admission, delayed diagnosis, Abdominal Trauma Index > 25, Injury Severity Score > 25 and colon injuries were associated to a high complication rate, however, there was no statistically significant difference. There were no mortalities in this group. CONCLUSIONS: A high index of suspicion is required for diagnosis of ureteral injuries. A thorough exploration of all retroperitoneal hematoma after penetrating trauma should be an accurate method of diagnosis; even though it failed in 10% of our cases.

  5. Market penetration of ethanol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szulczyk, Kenneth R.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Cornforth, Gerald

    2010-01-01

    This research examines in detail the technology and economics of substituting ethanol for gasoline. This endeavor examines three issues. First, the benefits of ethanol/gasoline blends are examined, and then the technical problems of large-scale implementation of ethanol. Second, ethanol production possibilities are examined in detail from a variety of feedstocks and technologies. The feedstocks are the starch/sugar crops and crop residues, while the technologies are corn wet mill, dry grind, and lignocellulosic fermentation. Examining in detail the production possibilities allows the researchers to identity the extent of technological change, production costs, byproducts, and GHG emissions. Finally, a U.S. agricultural model, FASOMGHG, is updated which predicts the market penetration of ethanol given technological progress, variety of technologies and feedstocks, market interactions, energy prices, and GHG prices. FASOMGHG has several interesting results. First, gasoline prices have a small expansionary impact on the U.S. ethanol industry. Both agricultural producers' income and cost both increase with higher energy prices. If wholesale gasoline is $4 per gallon, the predicted ethanol market penetration attains 53% of U.S. gasoline consumption in 2030. Second, the corn wet mill remains an important industry for ethanol production, because this industry also produces corn oil, which could be converted to biodiesel. Third, GHG prices expand the ethanol industry. However, the GHG price expands the corn wet mill, but has an ambiguous impact on lignocellulosic ethanol. Feedstocks for lignocellulosic fermentation can also be burned with coal to generate electricity. Both industries are quite GHG efficient. Finally, U.S. government subsidies on biofuels have an expansionary impact on ethanol production, but may only increase market penetration by an additional 1% in 2030, which is approximately 6 billion gallons. (author)

  6. Study of Penetration Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-11-01

    srecimens fabricated at the AFATL, AISI-01 oil quenched bar stock was used. Three of the projectiles used in the Eglin penetration experiments are shown...in the Mathema- tical Laboratory at Eglin AFB, is essencially a fourth order Runge-Kutta numerical method for solving simultaneous differential...C9G. VEL. X-COMPo (M4/5): d!10. I oil 140. 107. 82. RmCC~kr’ED TIME OF MAXIftjM/MINIM94U COIL VOLTAGE tSI MAX 0040 A 55 *.03J04A 0 0 05ji6 .000634 MIN

  7. Deep penetration calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, W.L.; Deutsch, O.L.; Booth, T.E.

    1980-04-01

    Several Monte Carlo techniques are compared in the transport of neutrons of different source energies through two different deep-penetration problems each with two parts. The first problem involves transmission through a 200-cm concrete slab. The second problem is a 90 0 bent pipe jacketed by concrete. In one case the pipe is void, and in the other it is filled with liquid sodium. Calculations are made with two different Los Alamos Monte Carlo codes: the continuous-energy code MCNP and the multigroup code MCMG

  8. Philosophical theories of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2000-01-01

    The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

  9. Penetrating abdominal trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henneman, P L

    1989-08-01

    The management of patients with penetrating abdominal trauma is outlined in Figure 1. Patients with hemodynamic instability, evisceration, significant gastrointestinal bleeding, peritoneal signs, gunshot wounds with peritoneal violation, and type 2 and 3 shotgun wounds should undergo emergency laparotomy. The initial ED management of these patients includes airway management, monitoring of cardiac rhythm and vital signs, history, physical examination, and placement of intravenous lines. Blood should be obtained for initial hematocrit, type and cross-matching, electrolytes, and an alcohol level or drug screen as needed. Initial resuscitation should utilize crystalloid fluid replacement. If more than 2 liters of crystalloid are needed to stabilize an adult (less in a child), blood should be given. Group O Rh-negative packed red blood cells should be immediately available for a patient in impending arrest or massive hemorrhage. Type-specific blood should be available within 15 minutes. A patient with penetrating thoracic and high abdominal trauma should receive a portable chest x-ray, and a hemo- or pneumothorax should be treated with tube thoracostomy. An unstable patient with clinical signs consistent with a pneumothorax, however, should receive a tube thoracostomy prior to obtaining roentgenographic confirmation. If time permits, a nasogastric tube and Foley catheter should be placed, and the urine evaluated for blood (these procedures can be performed in the operating room). If kidney involvement is suspected because of hematuria or penetrating trauma in the area of a kidney or ureter in a patient requiring surgery, a single-shot IVP should be performed either in the ED or the operating room. An ECG is important in patients with possible cardiac involvement and in patients over the age of 40 going to the operating room. Tetanus status should be updated, and appropriate antibiotics covering bowel flora should be given. Operative management should rarely be delayed

  10. Penetrating cardiothoracic war wounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biocina, B; Sutlić, Z; Husedzinović, I; Rudez, I; Ugljen, R; Letica, D; Slobodnjak, Z; Karadza, J; Brida, V; Vladović-Relja, T; Jelić, I

    1997-03-01

    Penetrating cardiothoracic war wounds are very common among war casualties. Those injuries require prompt and specific treatment in an aim to decrease mortality and late morbidity. There are a few controversies about the best modality of treatment for such injuries, and there are not many large series of such patients in recent literature. We analysed a group of 259 patients with penetrating cardiothoracic war wounds admitted to our institutions between May 1991 and October 1992. There were 235 (90.7%) patients with thoracic wounds, 14 (5.4%) patients with cardiac, wounds and in 10 (3.7%) patients both heart and lungs were injured. The cause of injury was shrapnel in 174 patients (67%), bullets in 25 patients (9.7%), cluster bomb particles in 45 patients (17.3%) and other (blast etc.) in 15 patients (6%). Patients, 69, had concomitant injuries of various organs. The initial treatment in 164 operated patients was chest drainage in 76 (46.3%) patients, thoracotomy and suture of the lung in 71 (43.2%) patients, lobectomy in 12 (7.3%) patients and pneumonectomy in 5 (3%) patients. Complications include pleural empyema and/or lung abscess in 20 patients (8.4%), incomplete reexpansion of the lung in 10 patients (4.2%), osteomyelitis of the rib in 5 patients (2.1%) and bronchopleural fistula in 1 patient (0.4%). Secondary procedures were decortication in 12 patients, rib resection in 5 patients, lobectomy in 2 patients, pneumonectomy in 4 patients, reconstruction of the chest wall in 2 patients and closure of the bronchopleural fistula in 1 patient. The cardiac chamber involved was right ventricle in 12 patients, left ventricular in 6 patients, right atrium in 7 patients, left atrium in 3 patients, ascending aorta in 2 patients and 1 patient which involved descending aorta, right ventricle and coronary artery (left anterior descending) and inferior vena cava, respectively. The primary procedure was suture in 17 patients (in 10 patients with the additional suture of the

  11. Non-Archimedean Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

    We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

  12. Interpretations of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2009-01-01

    This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

  13. Penetration Tester's Open Source Toolkit

    CERN Document Server

    Faircloth, Jeremy

    2011-01-01

    Great commercial penetration testing tools can be very expensive and sometimes hard to use or of questionable accuracy. This book helps solve both of these problems. The open source, no-cost penetration testing tools presented do a great job and can be modified by the user for each situation. Many tools, even ones that cost thousands of dollars, do not come with any type of instruction on how and in which situations the penetration tester can best use them. Penetration Tester's Open Source Toolkit, Third Edition, expands upon existing instructions so that a professional can get the most accura

  14. Physical Penetration Testing: A Whole New Story in Penetration Testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dimkov, T.; Pieters, Wolter

    2011-01-01

    Physical penetration testing plays an important role in assuring a company that the security policies are properly enforced and that the security awareness of the employees is on the appropriate level. In physical penetration tests the tester physically enters restricted locations and directly

  15. Foundations of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraassen, B.C. van

    1979-01-01

    The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)

  16. The quantum probability calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jauch, J.M.

    1976-01-01

    The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

  17. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

  18. Probability of satellite collision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccarter, J. W.

    1972-01-01

    A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

  19. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

  20. Handbook of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Florescu, Ionut

    2013-01-01

    THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

  1. Real analysis and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

    1972-01-01

    Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

  2. Generic penetration in the retail atypical antipsychotic market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenderts, Susan; Kalali, Amir H; Buckley, Peter

    2010-03-01

    In this article, we explore the penetration of generic atypical antipsychotics in the United States market before and after the availability of generic risperidone in July 2008. Analysis suggests that, overall, generic penetration into the atypical antipsychotic market has grown from approximately three percent in January 2008 to more than 25 percent in December 2009. Similar trends are uncovered when branded and generic prescriptions are analyzed by specialty.

  3. Maximum penetration level of distributed generation without violating voltage limits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morren, J.; Haan, de S.W.H.

    2009-01-01

    Connection of Distributed Generation (DG) units to a distribution network will result in a local voltage increase. As there will be a maximum on the allowable voltage increase, this will limit the maximum allowable penetration level of DG. By reactive power compensation (by the DG unit itself) a

  4. Penetration of Photovoltaics in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenia Giannini

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently, an interesting experiment was completed in Greece concerning photovoltaic penetration into the electricity production sector. Based on the relevant laws and in accordance to the related European directives, an explosive penetration process was completed in less than three years, resulting in a 7% share of photovoltaics in electricity production instead of the previous negligible share. The legislation was based on licensing simplification and generous feed-in-tariffs. This approach transformed photovoltaic technology from a prohibitively expensive to a competitive one. This work aims to summarize the relevant legislation and illustrate its effect on the resulting penetration. A sigmoid-shape penetration was observed which was explained by a pulse-type driving force. The return on investment indicator was proposed as an appropriate driving force, which incorporates feed-in-tariffs and turnkey-cost. Furthermore, the resulting surcharge on the electricity price due to photovoltaic penetration was also analyzed.

  5. Introduction to probability

    CERN Document Server

    Freund, John E

    1993-01-01

    Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

  6. Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varacca, Daniele

    Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...

  7. Janus-faced probability

    CERN Document Server

    Rocchi, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

  8. Does Medicaid managed care market penetration impact provider participation, costs, utilization, and access?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minott, Jenny

    2010-09-01

    Key findings. (1) An increase in commercial plan penetration increased the liklihood [sic] that a physician would accept new Medicaid patients, but this did not significantly impact enrollee costs. (2) An increase in Medicaid-dominant HMO market penetration increased the probability that individuals reported using the ED as their primary source of care.

  9. Deep ocean model penetrator experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freeman, T.J.; Burdett, J.R.F.

    1986-01-01

    Preliminary trials of experimental model penetrators in the deep ocean have been conducted as an international collaborative exercise by participating members (national bodies and the CEC) of the Engineering Studies Task Group of the Nuclear Energy Agency's Seabed Working Group. This report describes and gives the results of these experiments, which were conducted at two deep ocean study areas in the Atlantic: Great Meteor East and the Nares Abyssal Plain. Velocity profiles of penetrators of differing dimensions and weights have been determined as they free-fell through the water column and impacted the sediment. These velocity profiles are used to determine the final embedment depth of the penetrators and the resistance to penetration offered by the sediment. The results are compared with predictions of embedment depth derived from elementary models of a penetrator impacting with a sediment. It is tentatively concluded that once the resistance to penetration offered by a sediment at a particular site has been determined, this quantity can be used to sucessfully predict the embedment that penetrators of differing sizes and weights would achieve at the same site

  10. Probability and Measure

    CERN Document Server

    Billingsley, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

  11. The concept of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bitsakis, E.I.; Nicolaides, C.A.

    1989-01-01

    The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs

  12. Probability for statisticians

    CERN Document Server

    Shorack, Galen R

    2017-01-01

    This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

  13. Concepts of probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Pfeiffer, Paul E

    1979-01-01

    Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.

  14. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  15. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  16. Probabilities in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hartmann, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

  17. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Grimmett, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

  18. Probability in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hemmo, Meir

    2012-01-01

    What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

  19. Spanish RPV head penetrations. Regulatory status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueras, J.M.; Colino, J.R.

    1995-01-01

    The paper presents the actual status of inspection results on the Spanish PWR RPV CRD head penetrations (CRDH's), after two years of a whole program of inspections in all affected plants. Actual situation of penetrations pertaining to ALMARAZ 1 and 2, ASCO 1 and 2 and VANDELLOS 2 NPP's show any damage in those CRDH's inspected in 1993 and 1994 (roughly 20 out of 65 CRDH's at each unit). The paper presents a summary of CRDH characteristics, inspection methods and results obtained in each plant. TRILLO NPP has a different CRDH design (KWU-SIEMENS type) and for that reason is not considered an affected plant nor has conducted any inspection up to now. JOSE CABRERA (ZORITA) NPP has shown extensive damage, both in the lower side (weldment to the vessel) and in the upper free span area, near bimetallic weldment to SS 304, in active and nonactive penetrations and also in the vent nozzle. The paper comments extensively on the CRDH materials general data, root-cause analysis and structural analysis of degraded zones, inspection results, repair actions and other additional actions applied up to now. Finally, the paper deals with the regulatory actions taken by CSN on this topic, both for those NPP's actually non affected by the IGSCC phenomenon in the RPV CRDH's and for the specific safety case of ZORITA NPP. (author)

  20. Penetrating chest wound of the foetus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert Wandaogo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Traumas of the foetus caused by stabbings are rare but actually life-threatening for both the foetus and the mother. We report a case of penetrating chest wound on a baby taken from the obstetrics unit to the paediatric surgical department. His mother was assaulted by his father, a mentally sick person with no appropriate follow-up. The foetus did not show any sign of vital distress. Surgical exploration of the wound has revealed a section of the 10 th rib, a laceration of the pleura and a tearing of the diaphragm. A phrenorraphy and a pleural drainage were performed. The new-born and its mother were released from hospital after 5 days and the clinical control and X-ray checks 6 months later showed nothing abnormal. We insisted a medical, psychiatric follow-up be initiated for the father. As regards pregnant women with penetrating wounds, the mortality rate of the foetus is 80%. The odds are good for our newborn due to the mild injuries and good professional collaboration of the medical staff. Penetrating transuterine wounds of the foetus can be very serious. The health care needed should include many fields due to the mother and the foetus′ lesions extreme polymorphism. In our case, it could have prevented by a good psychiatric followed up of the offender.

  1. Europa Kinetic Ice Penetrator (EKIP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The goal of the proposed work is to validate an initial design for a Europa penetrator that can withstand the high g load associated with the expected hypervelocity...

  2. Probability in quantum mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Gilson

    1982-01-01

    Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

  3. Quantum computing and probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-11-25

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  4. Quantum computing and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-01-01

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction. (viewpoint)

  5. Penetration of Photovoltaics in Greece

    OpenAIRE

    Eugenia Giannini; Antonia Moropoulou; Zacharias Maroulis; Glykeria Siouti

    2015-01-01

    Recently, an interesting experiment was completed in Greece concerning photovoltaic penetration into the electricity production sector. Based on the relevant laws and in accordance to the related European directives, an explosive penetration process was completed in less than three years, resulting in a 7% share of photovoltaics in electricity production instead of the previous negligible share. The legislation was based on licensing simplification and generous feed-in-tariffs. This approach ...

  6. Projectile penetration into ballistic gelatin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, M V; Kieser, D C; Shah, S; Kieser, J A

    2014-01-01

    Ballistic gelatin is frequently used as a model for soft biological tissues that experience projectile impact. In this paper we investigate the response of a number of gelatin materials to the penetration of spherical steel projectiles (7 to 11mm diameter) with a range of lower impacting velocities (projectile velocity are found to be linear for all systems above a certain threshold velocity required for initiating penetration. The data for a specific material impacted with different diameter spheres were able to be condensed to a single curve when the penetration depth was normalised by the projectile diameter. When the results are compared with a number of predictive relationships available in the literature, it is found that over the range of projectiles and compositions used, the results fit a simple relationship that takes into account the projectile diameter, the threshold velocity for penetration into the gelatin and a value of the shear modulus of the gelatin estimated from the threshold velocity for penetration. The normalised depth is found to fit the elastic Froude number when this is modified to allow for a threshold impact velocity. The normalised penetration data are found to best fit this modified elastic Froude number with a slope of 1/2 instead of 1/3 as suggested by Akers and Belmonte (2006). Possible explanations for this difference are discussed. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Towards a Categorical Account of Conditional Probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Furber

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a categorical account of conditional probability, covering both the classical and the quantum case. Classical conditional probabilities are expressed as a certain "triangle-fill-in" condition, connecting marginal and joint probabilities, in the Kleisli category of the distribution monad. The conditional probabilities are induced by a map together with a predicate (the condition. The latter is a predicate in the logic of effect modules on this Kleisli category. This same approach can be transferred to the category of C*-algebras (with positive unital maps, whose predicate logic is also expressed in terms of effect modules. Conditional probabilities can again be expressed via a triangle-fill-in property. In the literature, there are several proposals for what quantum conditional probability should be, and also there are extra difficulties not present in the classical case. At this stage, we only describe quantum systems with classical parametrization.

  8. The perception of probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Irreversibility and conditional probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)

  10. The pleasures of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Isaac, Richard

    1995-01-01

    The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

  11. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  12. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

  13. Probability and stochastic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Rotar, Vladimir I

    2012-01-01

    Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...

  14. Collision Probability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1998-01-01

    It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

  15. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    2014-01-01

    either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

  16. Introduction to imprecise probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

  17. Classic Problems of Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gorroochurn, Prakash

    2012-01-01

    "A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin

  18. Plutonium in depleted uranium penetrators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLaughlin, J.P.; Leon-Vintro, L.; Smith, K.; Mitchell, P.I.; Zunic, Z.S.

    2002-01-01

    Depleted Uranium (DU) penetrators used in the recent Balkan conflicts have been found to be contaminated with trace amounts of transuranic materials such as plutonium. This contamination is usually a consequence of DU fabrication being carried out in facilities also using uranium recycled from spent military and civilian nuclear reactor fuel. Specific activities of 239+240 Plutonium generally in the range 1 to 12 Bq/kg have been found to be present in DU penetrators recovered from the attack sites of the 1999 NATO bombardment of Kosovo. A DU penetrator recovered from a May 1999 attack site at Bratoselce in southern Serbia and analysed by University College Dublin was found to contain 43.7 +/- 1.9 Bq/kg of 239+240 Plutonium. This analysis is described. An account is also given of the general population radiation dose implications arising from both the DU itself and from the presence of plutonium in the penetrators. According to current dosimetric models, in all scenarios considered likely ,the dose from the plutonium is estimated to be much smaller than that due to the uranium isotopes present in the penetrators. (author)

  19. Counterexamples in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Stoyanov, Jordan M

    2013-01-01

    While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.

  20. Epistemology and Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Plotnitsky, Arkady

    2010-01-01

    Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general

  1. Transition probabilities for atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Y.K.

    1980-01-01

    Current status of advanced theoretical methods for transition probabilities for atoms and ions is discussed. An experiment on the f values of the resonance transitions of the Kr and Xe isoelectronic sequences is suggested as a test for the theoretical methods

  2. Double ionization chamber survey meter for the separate measurement of penetrating and non-penetrating dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucas, A.C.

    1987-01-01

    The full capabilities of an advanced 8-bit microprocessor have been utilized in construction of a wide range, multiplexing survey meter based on dual electrometers and ionization chambers. The ionization chambers are constructed of modular conducting and non-conducting parts in such a way that the angular dependence for measurement of beta radiation is controlled by design. Display functions for the high range instrument include logarithmic or linear analog display, digital display of rate or dose, SI or English units, optionally for either total, penetrating, or non-penetrating dose. The instrument is presently configured to operate in the range 0.1 R/hr to 50,000 R/hr in support of the requirements of Regulatory Guide 19.7

  3. Penetration shielding applications of CYLSEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dexheimer, D.T.; Hathaway, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    Evaluation of penetration and discontinuity shielding is necessary to meet 10CFR20 regulations for ensuring personnel exposures are as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA). Historically, those shielding evaluations have been done to some degree on all projects. However, many early plants used conservative methods due to lack of an economical computer code, resulting in costly penetration shielding programs. With the increased industry interest in cost effectively reducing personnel exposures to meet ALARA regulations and with the development of the CYLSEC gamma transport computer code at Bechtel, a comprehensive effort was initiated to reduce penetration and discontinuity shielding but still provide a prudent degree of protection for plant personnel from radiation streaming. This effort was more comprehensive than previous programs due to advances in shielding analysis technology and increased interest in controlling project costs while maintaining personnel exposures ALARA. Methodology and resulting cost savings are discussed

  4. Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

  5. Contributions to quantum probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome

  6. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  7. Contributions to quantum probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-06-25

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a

  8. Waste Package Misload Probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knudsen, J.K.

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a

  9. Probability theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Hsu, Elton P

    1999-01-01

    This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.

  10. Paradoxes in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Eckhardt, William

    2013-01-01

    Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

  11. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  12. Estimating residual life of alloy 600 RPV penetrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunt, E.S.; White, G.A.; Pathania, R.; Arey, M.L.; Whitaker, D.E.

    1996-01-01

    Primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) of Alloy 600 penetrations PWR in reactor pressure vessel (RPV) heads has become a significant economic concern worldwide. PWSCC of these penetrations has led to extended maintenance outages, expensive inspections and repairs, and in some cases, replacement of the entire vessel head. This paper describes methodology developed to predict the remaining life of Alloy 600 penetrations in reactor vessel heads. Predictions of remaining life are an important input to planning models used by utilities to select a strategy for responding to the PWSCC issue at the lowest life cycle cost with an acceptably low risk of leakage. The remaining life of RPV penetrations is determined using the results of inspections of penetrations and statistical methods to predict future degradation. The analysis takes into account the effects of material properties, welding residual stresses, and operating temperature on PWSCC initiation and growth. The probability of developing cracks of various depths is assessed using Monte Carlo methods which provide for uncertainties in the input assumptions. For plants which have not yet performed inspections, remaining life predictions are based on inspection results from similar plants which have performed inspections with corrections made for known differences in design details, material properties and operating conditions

  13. Model uncertainty and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

  14. Retrocausality and conditional probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Costa de Beauregard has proposed that physical causality be identified with conditional probability. The proposal is shown to be vulnerable on two accounts. The first, though mathematically trivial, seems to be decisive so far as the current formulation of the proposal is concerned. The second lies in a physical inconsistency which seems to have its source in a Copenhagenlike disavowal of realism in quantum mechanics. 6 refs. (Author)

  15. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  16. Matching sampler penetration curves to definitions of respirable fraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercer, T.T.

    1977-01-01

    A formal definition of 'respirable fraction' (the probability that a particle of a given size will deposit in the alveolar regions of the lung if inhaled) is useful only if there is a method of sorting out airborne contamination approximately in accordance with the definition. The matching of the definitions adopted by different organizations to the penetration curves of various types of sample is discussed. (author)

  17. Prediction of electric vehicle penetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-01

    The object of this report is to present the current market status of plug-in-electric : vehicles (PEVs) and to predict their future penetration within the world and U.S. : markets. The sales values for 2016 show a strong year of PEV sales both in the...

  18. FAA Fluorescent Penetrant Laboratory Inspections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    WINDES,CONNOR L.; MOORE,DAVID G.

    2000-08-02

    The Federal Aviation Administration Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center currently assesses the capability of various non-destructive inspection (NDI) methods used for analyzing aircraft components. The focus of one such exercise is to evaluate the sensitivity of fluorescent liquid penetrant inspection. A baseline procedure using the water-washable fluorescent penetrant method defines a foundation for comparing the brightness of low cycle fatigue cracks in titanium test panels. The analysis of deviations in the baseline procedure will determine an acceptable range of operation for the steps in the inspection process. The data also gives insight into the depth of each crack and which step(s) of the inspection process most affect penetrant sensitivities. A set of six low cycle fatigue cracks produced in 6.35-mm thick Ti-6Al-4V specimens was used to conduct the experiments to produce sensitivity data. The results will document the consistency of the crack readings and compare previous experiments to find the best parameters for water-washable penetrant.

  19. Industrial Penetration and Internet Intensity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); Y-C. Wu (Yu-Chieh)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThis paper investigates the effect of industrial penetration and internet intensity for Taiwan manufacturing firms, and analyses whether the relationships are substitutes or complements. The sample observations are based on 153,081 manufacturing plants, and covers 26 two-digit industry

  20. Import market penetration in services

    OpenAIRE

    Langhammer, Rolf J.

    1991-01-01

    The EC-1992 programme foresees the complete liberalization of trade in services among member countries. To what extent has import market penetration in the Community already begun in selected service industries? Which EC member countries have been the forerunners to date? The following paper uses a new data base released recently by EUROSTAT in an attempt to answer these and other related questions.

  1. [Professor WU Zhongchao's experience of penetration needling].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ning; Wang, Bing; Zhou, Yu

    2016-08-12

    Professor WU Zhongchao has unique application of penetration needling in clinical treatment. Professor WU applies penetration needling along meridians, and the methods of penetration needling include self-meridian penetration, exterior-interior meridian penetration, identical-name meridian penetration, different meridian penetration. The meridian differentiation is performed according to different TCM syndromes, locations and natures of diseases and acupoint nature, so as to make a comprehensive assessment. The qi movement during acupuncture is focused. In addition, attention is paid on anatomy and long-needle penetration; the sequence and direction of acupuncture is essential, and the reinforcing and reducing methods have great originality, presented with holding, waiting, pressing and vibrating. Based on classical acupoint, the acupoint of penetration needling is flexible, forming unique combination of acupoints.

  2. New Statistical Probe into the Decline of Daily Newspaper Household Penetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alperstein, Gerald

    From 1950 to 1970, daily newspaper household penetration (DNHP) levels dropped from 1.24 to 0.99 in the United States. This paper describes some of the variables involved in this decline and outlines a market-by-market statistical analysis of the relationship between the penetration levels of daily newspapers and other forms of mass media. From…

  3. Predicting the Consequences of MMOD Penetrations on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyde, James; Christiansen, E.; Lear, D.; Evans

    2018-01-01

    The threat from micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts on space vehicles is often quantified in terms of the probability of no penetration (PNP). However, for large spacecraft, especially those with multiple compartments, a penetration may have a number of possible outcomes. The extent of the damage (diameter of hole, crack length or penetration depth), the location of the damage relative to critical equipment or crew, crew response, and even the time of day of the penetration are among the many factors that can affect the outcome. For the International Space Station (ISS), a Monte-Carlo style software code called Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability (MSCSurv) is used to predict the probability of several outcomes of an MMOD penetration-broadly classified as loss of crew (LOC), crew evacuation (Evac), loss of escape vehicle (LEV), and nominal end of mission (NEOM). By generating large numbers of MMOD impacts (typically in the billions) and tracking the consequences, MSCSurv allows for the inclusion of a large number of parameters and models as well as enabling the consideration of uncertainties in the models and parameters. MSCSurv builds upon the results from NASA's Bumper software (which provides the probability of penetration and critical input data to MSCSurv) to allow analysts to estimate the probability of LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM. This paper briefly describes the overall methodology used by NASA to quantify LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM with particular emphasis on describing in broad terms how MSCSurv works and its capabilities and most significant models.

  4. Probability of causation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jose, D.E.

    1988-01-01

    Probability of causation (PC) is sometimes viewed as a great improvement by those persons who are not happy with the present rulings of courts in radiation cases. The author does not share that hope and expects that PC will not play a significant role in these issues for at least the next decade. If it is ever adopted in a legislative compensation scheme, it will be used in a way that is unlikely to please most scientists. Consequently, PC is a false hope for radiation scientists, and its best contribution may well lie in some of the spin-off effects, such as an influence on medical practice

  5. Generalized Probability Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Souto Martinez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.

  6. Probability in High Dimension

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-30

    precisely the content of the following result. The price we pay is that the assumption that A is a packing in (F, k ·k1) is too weak to make this happen...Regularité des trajectoires des fonctions aléatoires gaussiennes. In: École d’Été de Probabilités de Saint- Flour , IV-1974, pp. 1–96. Lecture Notes in...Lectures on probability theory and statistics (Saint- Flour , 1994), Lecture Notes in Math., vol. 1648, pp. 165–294. Springer, Berlin (1996) 50. Ledoux

  7. Use of ground-penetrating radar techniques in archaeological investigations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doolittle, James A.; Miller, W. Frank

    1991-01-01

    Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) techniques are increasingly being used to aid reconnaissance and pre-excavation surveys at many archaeological sites. As a 'remote sensing' tool, GPR provides a high resolution graphic profile of the subsurface. Radar profiles are used to detect, identify, and locate buried artifacts. Ground-penetrating radar provides a rapid, cost effective, and nondestructive method for identification and location analyses. The GPR can be used to facilitate excavation strategies, provide greater areal coverage per unit time and cost, minimize the number of unsuccessful exploratory excavations, and reduce unnecessary or unproductive expenditures of time and effort.

  8. Penetration, Post-penetration Development, and Reproduction of Meloidogyne incognita on Cucumis melo var. texanus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faske, T R

    2013-03-01

    Cucumis melo var. texanus, a wild melon commonly found in the southern United States and two accessions, Burleson Co. and MX 1230, expressed resistance to Meloidogyne incognita in preliminary experiments. To characterize the mechanism of resistance, we evaluated root penetration, post-penetration development, reproduction, and emigration of M. incognita on these two accessions of C. melo var. texanus. Additionally, we evaluated 22 accessions of C. melo var. texanus for their reaction against M. incognita in a greenhouse experiment. Fewer (P ≤ 0.05) J2 penetrated the root system of C. melo var. texanus accessions (Burleson Co. and MX 1230) and C. metuliferus (PI 482452) (resistant control), 7 days after inoculation (DAI) than in C. melo 'Hales Best Jumbo' (susceptible control). A delayed (P ≤ 0.05) rate of nematode development was observed at 7, 14, and 21 DAI that contributed to lower (P ≤ 0.05) egg production on both accessions and C. metuliferus compared with C. melo. Though J2 emigration was observed on all Cucumis genotypes a higher (P ≤ 0.05) rate of J2 emigration was observed from 3 to 6 DAI on accession Burleson Co. and C. metuliferus than on C. melo. The 22 accessions of C. melo var. texanus varied relative to their reaction to M. incognita with eight supporting similar levels of nematode reproduction to that of C. metuliferus. Cucumis melo var. texanus may be a useful source of resistance against root-knot nematode in melon.

  9. Control of penetration zone GMAW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Віталій Петрович Iванов

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Thermal properties of the base metal, shielding medium and the nature of the electrode metal transfer to a great extent determine the penetration area formation in gas-arc welding. It is not always possible to take into account the influence of these factors on penetration front forming within the existing models. The aim of the work was to research the penetration area forming in gas-arc welding. The research of the penetration area forming in gas-arc welding of CrNi austenitic steels was made. The parameters of the regime as well as the kind of the gaseous medium influence on the formation of the penetration zone were studied. The article shows a linear proportional relationship between the electrode feed rate and the size of the base metal plate. The penetration area formation mode for welding in argon and carbon dioxide have been worked out. Diameter, feed rate and the speed of the electrode movement have been chosen as the main input parameters. Multiple regression analysis method was used to make up the modes. The relations of the third order that make it possible to take into account the electrode metal transfer and thermal properties change of the materials to be welded were used. These relationships show quite good agreement with the experimental measurements in the calculation of the fusion zone shape with consumable electrode in argon and carbon dioxide. It was determined that the shape of the melting front curve can be shown as a generalized function in which the front motion parameters depend on feed rate and the diameter of the electrode. Penetration zone growth time is determined by the welding speed and is calculated as a discrete function of the distance from the electrode with the spacing along the movement coordinate. The influence of the mode parameters on the formation of the fusion zone has been investigated and the ways to manage and stabilize the weld pool formation have been identified. The modes can be used to develop

  10. Akon - A Penetrator for Europa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Geraint

    2016-04-01

    Jupiter's moon Europa is one of the most intriguing objects in our Solar System. This 2000km-wide body has a geologically young solid water ice crust that is believed to cover a global ocean of liquid water. The presence of this ocean, together with a source of heating through tidal forces, make Europa a conceivable location for extraterrestrial life. The science case for exploring all aspects of this icy world is compelling. NASA has selected the Europa Mission (formerly Europa Clipper) to study Europa in detail in the 2020s through multiple flybys, and ESA's JUICE mission will perform two flybys of the body in the 2030s. The US agency has extended to the European Space Agency an invitation to provide a contribution to their mission. European scientists interested in Europa science and exploration are currently organizing themselves, in the framework of a coordinated Europa M5 Inititative to study concurrently the main options for this ESA contribution, from a simple addition of individual instruments to the NASA spacecraft, to a lander to investigate Europa's surface in situ. A high speed lander - a penetrator - is by far the most promising technology to achieve this latter option within the anticipated mass constraints, and studies of such a hard lander, many funded by ESA, are now at an advanced level. An international team to formally propose an Europa penetrator to ESA in response to the anticipated ESA M5 call is growing. The working title of this proposal is Akon (Άκων), named after the highly accurate javelin gifted to Europa by Zeus in ancient Greek mythology. We present plans for the Akon penetrator, which would impact Europa's surface at several hundred metres per second, and travel up to several metres into the moon's subsurface. To achieve this, the penetrator would be delivered to the surface by a dedicated descent module, to be destroyed on impact following release of the penetrator above the surface. It is planned that the instruments to be

  11. Assessing high wind energy penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tande, J.O.

    1995-01-01

    In order to convincingly promote installing wind power capacity as a substantial part of the energy supply system, a set of careful analyses must be undertaken. This paper applies a case study concentrated on assessing the cost/benefit of high wind energy penetration. The case study considers...... expanding the grid connected wind power capacity in Praia, the capital of Cape Verde. The currently installed 1 MW of wind power is estimated to supply close to 10% of the electric energy consumption in 1996. Increasing the wind energy penetration to a higher level is considered viable as the project...... with the existing wind power, supply over 30% of the electric consumption in 1996. Applying the recommended practices for estimating the cost of wind energy, the life-cycle cost of this 2.4 MW investment is estimated at a 7% discount rate and a 20 year lifetime to 0.26 DKK/kW h....

  12. Economic Operation of Power Systems with Significant Wind Power Penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa

    This dissertation addresses economic operation of power systems with high penetration of wind power. Several studies are presented to address the economic operation of power systems with high penetration of variable wind power. The main concern in such power systems is high variability...... and unpredictability. Unlike conventional power plants, the output power of a wind farm is not controllable. This brings additional complexity to operation and planning of wind dominant power systems. The key solution in face of wind power uncertainty is to enhance power system flexibility. The enhanced flexibility......, cooperative wind-storage operation is studied. Lithium-Ion battery units are chosen as storage units. A novel formulation is proposed to investigate optimal operation of a storage unit considering power system balancing conditions and wind power imbalances. An optimization framework is presented to increase...

  13. Penetrating Stab Wound of the Right Ventricle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onursal Buğra

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available 18 years old male patient was admitted to our emergency unit with a penetrating stab wound to the right ventricle. A stab wound to the right ventricle was found to be 3 cm in diameter. The bleeding was controlled by insertion of a Foley catheter and inflation of the balloon. The stab wound had transected distal acute marginal side ofthe right coronary artery. A successful repair was performed with the use of a foley catheter and application of the Medtronic Octopus Tissue Stabilization System. The wound was closed with pledgeted mattress sutures. The distal acute marginal side of the right coronary artery was ligated. In this presentation, the surgical intervention method was reported and followed by a discussion of emergency surgical procedures of the heart.

  14. Cracks on instrumentation penetrations in reactor vessel: a new challenge; Fissuration des penetrations de cuve: un nouveau defi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon

    2004-02-01

    In august 2003 NRC (nuclear regulatory commission) issued a warning concerning the deposits of boron acid that might accumulate on instrumental penetrations in the bottom of PWR vessels. These deposits were first detected on the David-Besse power plant and more recently on the unit 1 of South Texas Project (STP) during a refueling shutdown. STP contracted with the Areva company in order to perform inspections on all the 58 vessel penetrations of the unit 1 and to propose solutions. For that purpose the Areva company had to design a specific visual inspection tool that combined both ultra-sound method and Foucault current probing. The results of the inspection campaign on the unit 1 showed that only 2 penetration tubes were concerned with axial defects in their walls, that no circumferential defects were detected and that butt welds presented no cracks. The 2 incriminated penetration tubes were repaired: a section of both was replaced by an alloy-690 tube. (A.C.)

  15. Mobile Termination and Mobile Penetration

    OpenAIRE

    Hurkens, Sjaak; Jeon, Doh-Shin

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we study how access pricing affects network competition when subscription demand is elastic and each network uses non-linear prices and can apply termination-based price discrimination. In the case of a fixed per minute termination charge, we find that a reduction of the termination charge below cost has two oppos- ing effects: it softens competition but helps to internalize network externalities. The former reduces mobile penetration while the latter boosts it. We find that fi...

  16. Mobile termination and mobile penetration

    OpenAIRE

    Hurkens, Sjaak

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we study how access pricing affects network competition when subscription demand is elastic and each network uses non-linear prices and can apply termination-based price discrimination. In the case of a fixed per minute termination charge, we find that a reduction of the termination charge below cost has two opposing effects: it softens competition but helps to internalize network externalities. The former reduces mobile penetration while the latter boosts it. We find that firm...

  17. Fluorescent penetration crack testing method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roth, A.

    1979-01-01

    The same cleaning, penetration, washing, development and evaluation agents are used in this method as for known methods. In order to accelerate or shorten the testing, the drying process is performed only to optical dryness of the material surface by blowing on it with pressurized air, the development by simple pressing into or dusting of the material with the developer and the temperature of the washing water is selected within room temperature range. (RW) [de

  18. Investigating Probability with the NBA Draft Lottery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Robert J.

    1997-01-01

    Investigates an interesting application of probability in the world of sports. Considers the role of permutations in the lottery system used by the National Basketball Association (NBA) in the United States to determine the order in which nonplayoff teams select players from the college ranks. Presents a lesson on this topic in which students work…

  19. HMO penetration and physicians' earnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadley, J; Mitchell, J M

    1999-11-01

    The goal of this study is to estimate whether cross-sectional variations in enrollment in health maintenance organizations (HMOs) affected physicians' earnings and hourly income in 1990. Using data from a nationally representative sample of 4,577 younger physicians (penetration is endogenous and used the instrumental variables approach to obtain unbiased estimates. HMO penetration had a negative and statistically significant impact on physicians earnings in 1990. A doubling of the average level of HMO penetration in the market is estimated to reduce annual earnings by 7% to 10.7%, and hourly earnings by approximately 6% to 9%. It appears that HMOs were successful in reducing physicians' annual and per hour earnings in 1990, presumably through a combination of fewer visits and lower payment rates for people covered by HMOs. Although these results cannot be generalized to all physicians, the experience of a younger cohort of physicians may still be a good indicator of the future effects of HMOs because younger physicians may be more susceptible to market forces than older and more established physicians. Moreover, these results may be somewhat conservative because they reflect market behavior in 1990, several years before the rapid growth and more aggressive market behavior of HMOs in recent years.

  20. Penetrating eye injury in war.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biehl, J W; Valdez, J; Hemady, R K; Steidl, S M; Bourke, D L

    1999-11-01

    The percentage of penetrating eye injuries in war has increased significantly in this century compared with the total number of combat injuries. With the increasing use of fragmentation weapons and possibly laser weapons on the battle-field in the future, the rate of eye injuries may exceed the 13% of the total military injuries found in Operations Desert Storm/Shield. During the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), eye injuries revealed that retained foreign bodies and posterior segment injuries have an improved prognosis in future military ophthalmic surgery as a result of modern diagnostic and treatment modalities. Compared with the increasing penetrating eye injuries on the battlefield, advances in ophthalmic surgery are insignificant. Eye armor, such as visors that flip up and down and protect the eyes from laser injury, needs to be developed. Similar eye protection is being developed in civilian sportswear. Penetrating eye injury in the civilian sector is becoming much closer to the military model and is now comparable for several reasons.

  1. Real-Time Penetrating Particle Analyzer (PAN)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, X.; Ambrosi, G.; Bertucci, B.

    2018-02-01

    The PAN can measure penetrating particles with great precision to study energetic particles, solar activities, and the origin and propagation of cosmic rays. The real-time monitoring of penetrating particles is crucial for deep space human travel.

  2. Improving Outcomes Following Penetrating Colon Wounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Preston R.; Fabian, Timothy C.; Croce, Martin A.; Magnotti, Louis J.; Elizabeth Pritchard, F.; Minard, Gayle; Stewart, Ronald M.

    2002-01-01

    Introduction During World War II, failure to treat penetrating colon injuries with diversion could result in court martial. Based on this wartime experience, colostomy for civilian colon wounds became the standard of care for the next 4 decades. Previous work from our institution demonstrated that primary repair was the optimal management for nondestructive colon wounds. Optimal management of destructive wounds requiring resection remains controversial. To address this issue, we performed a study that demonstrated risk factors (pre or intraoperative transfusion requirement of more than 6 units of packed red blood cells, significant comorbid diseases) that were associated with a suture line failure rate of 14%, and of whom 33% died. Based on these outcomes, a clinical pathway for management of destructive colon wounds was developed. The results of the implementation of this pathway are the focus of this report. Methods Patients with penetrating colon injury were identified from the registry of a level I trauma center over a 5-year period. Records were reviewed for demographics, injury characteristics, and outcome. Patients with nondestructive injuries underwent primary repair. Patients with destructive wounds but no comorbidities or large transfusion requirement underwent resection and anastomosis, while patients with destructive wounds and significant medical illness or transfusion requirements of more than 6 units/blood received end colostomy. The current patients (CP) were compared to the previous study (PS) to determine the impact of the clinical pathway. Outcomes examined included colon related mortality and morbidity (suture line leak and abscess). Results Over a 5.5-year period, 231 patients had penetrating colon wounds. 209 survived more 24 hours and comprise the study population. Primary repair was performed on 153 (73%) patients, and 56 patients had destructive injuries (27%). Of these, 40 (71%) had resection and anastomosis and 16 (29%) had diversion

  3. Network Penetration Testing and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Brandon F.

    2013-01-01

    This paper will focus the on research and testing done on penetrating a network for security purposes. This research will provide the IT security office new methods of attacks across and against a company's network as well as introduce them to new platforms and software that can be used to better assist with protecting against such attacks. Throughout this paper testing and research has been done on two different Linux based operating systems, for attacking and compromising a Windows based host computer. Backtrack 5 and BlackBuntu (Linux based penetration testing operating systems) are two different "attacker'' computers that will attempt to plant viruses and or NASA USRP - Internship Final Report exploits on a host Windows 7 operating system, as well as try to retrieve information from the host. On each Linux OS (Backtrack 5 and BlackBuntu) there is penetration testing software which provides the necessary tools to create exploits that can compromise a windows system as well as other operating systems. This paper will focus on two main methods of deploying exploits 1 onto a host computer in order to retrieve information from a compromised system. One method of deployment for an exploit that was tested is known as a "social engineering" exploit. This type of method requires interaction from unsuspecting user. With this user interaction, a deployed exploit may allow a malicious user to gain access to the unsuspecting user's computer as well as the network that such computer is connected to. Due to more advance security setting and antivirus protection and detection, this method is easily identified and defended against. The second method of exploit deployment is the method mainly focused upon within this paper. This method required extensive research on the best way to compromise a security enabled protected network. Once a network has been compromised, then any and all devices connected to such network has the potential to be compromised as well. With a compromised

  4. Ethical Dilemmas and Dimensions in Penetration Testing

    OpenAIRE

    Faily, Shamal; McAlaney, John; Iacob, C.

    2015-01-01

    Penetration testers are required to attack systems to evaluate their security, but without engaging in unethical behaviour while doing so. Despite work on hacker values and studies into security practice, there is little literature devoted to the ethical pressures associated with penetration testing. This paper presents several ethical dilemmas and dimensions associated with penetration testing;\\ud these shed light on the ethical positions taken by Penetration testers, and help identify poten...

  5. Kali Linux wireless penetration testing essentials

    CERN Document Server

    Alamanni, Marco

    2015-01-01

    This book is targeted at information security professionals, penetration testers and network/system administrators who want to get started with wireless penetration testing. No prior experience with Kali Linux and wireless penetration testing is required, but familiarity with Linux and basic networking concepts is recommended.

  6. Effect of compressibility on the hypervelocity penetration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, W. J.; Chen, X. W.; Chen, P.

    2018-02-01

    We further consider the effect of rod strength by employing the compressible penetration model to study the effect of compressibility on hypervelocity penetration. Meanwhile, we define different instances of penetration efficiency in various modified models and compare these penetration efficiencies to identify the effects of different factors in the compressible model. To systematically discuss the effect of compressibility in different metallic rod-target combinations, we construct three cases, i.e., the penetrations by the more compressible rod into the less compressible target, rod into the analogously compressible target, and the less compressible rod into the more compressible target. The effects of volumetric strain, internal energy, and strength on the penetration efficiency are analyzed simultaneously. It indicates that the compressibility of the rod and target increases the pressure at the rod/target interface. The more compressible rod/target has larger volumetric strain and higher internal energy. Both the larger volumetric strain and higher strength enhance the penetration or anti-penetration ability. On the other hand, the higher internal energy weakens the penetration or anti-penetration ability. The two trends conflict, but the volumetric strain dominates in the variation of the penetration efficiency, which would not approach the hydrodynamic limit if the rod and target are not analogously compressible. However, if the compressibility of the rod and target is analogous, it has little effect on the penetration efficiency.

  7. Development of penetrant materials from used oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohamad Pauzi Ismail; Azhar Azmi

    2014-01-01

    This paper described the results of experiment to produce penetrant for nondestructive testing using used engine oil. The used engine oil was obtained from motor vehicle. It was mixed with kerosene at several mix proportion. The penetrability of these mixing were measured and compared with the penetrant available on the market. The results of measurement were explained and discussed. (author)

  8. Probability and rational choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Botting

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p1 In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.

  9. FAA Fluorescent Penetrant Activities - An Update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, D.G.

    1998-10-20

    The Federal Aviation Administration's Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) is currently characterizing low cycle fatigue specimens that will support the needs of penetrant manufacturers, commercial airline industry and the Federal Aviation Administration. The main focus of this characterization is to maintain and enhance the evaluation of penetrant inspection materials and apply resources to support the aircraft community needs. This paper discusses efforts to-date to document the Wright Laboratory penetrant evaluation process and characterize penetrant brightness readings in the initial set of sample calibration panels using Type 1 penetrant.

  10. Web penetration testing with Kali Linux

    CERN Document Server

    Muniz, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Web Penetration Testing with Kali Linux contains various penetration testing methods using BackTrack that will be used by the reader. It contains clear step-by-step instructions with lot of screenshots. It is written in an easy to understand language which will further simplify the understanding for the user.""Web Penetration Testing with Kali Linux"" is ideal for anyone who is interested in learning how to become a penetration tester. It will also help the users who are new to Kali Linux and want to learn the features and differences in Kali versus Backtrack, and seasoned penetration testers

  11. COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.

    1979-01-01

    1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions

  12. Penetration through the Skin Barrier

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Bo; Benfeldt, Eva; Holmgaard, Rikke

    2016-01-01

    The skin is a strong and flexible organ with barrier properties essential for maintaining homeostasis and thereby human life. Characterizing this barrier is the ability to prevent some chemicals from crossing the barrier while allowing others, including medicinal products, to pass at varying rates......-through diffusion cells) as well as in vivo methods (microdialysis and microperfusion). Then follows a discussion with examples of how different characteristics of the skin (age, site and integrity) and of the penetrants (size, solubility, ionization, logPow and vehicles) affect the kinetics of percutaneous...

  13. Penetrating abdominal injuries: management controversies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butt, Muhammad U; Zacharias, Nikolaos; Velmahos, George C

    2009-01-01

    Penetrating abdominal injuries have been traditionally managed by routine laparotomy. New understanding of trajectories, potential for organ injury, and correlation with advanced radiographic imaging has allowed a shift towards non-operative management of appropriate cases. Although a selective approach has been established for stab wounds, the management of abdominal gunshot wounds remains a matter of controversy. In this chapter we describe the rationale and methodology of selecting patients for non-operative management. We also discuss additional controversial issues, as related to antibiotic prophylaxis, management of asymptomatic thoracoabdominal injuries, and the use of colostomy vs. primary repair for colon injuries. PMID:19374761

  14. Penetrating abdominal injuries: management controversies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Velmahos George C

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Penetrating abdominal injuries have been traditionally managed by routine laparotomy. New understanding of trajectories, potential for organ injury, and correlation with advanced radiographic imaging has allowed a shift towards non-operative management of appropriate cases. Although a selective approach has been established for stab wounds, the management of abdominal gunshot wounds remains a matter of controversy. In this chapter we describe the rationale and methodology of selecting patients for non-operative management. We also discuss additional controversial issues, as related to antibiotic prophylaxis, management of asymptomatic thoracoabdominal injuries, and the use of colostomy vs. primary repair for colon injuries.

  15. Penetration testing with Raspberry Pi

    CERN Document Server

    Muniz, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    If you are looking for a low budget, small form-factor remotely accessible hacking tool, then the concepts in this book are ideal for you. If you are a penetration tester who wants to save on travel costs by placing a low-cost node on a target network, you will save thousands by using the methods covered in this book. You do not have to be a skilled hacker or programmer to use this book. It will be beneficial to have some networking experience; however, it is not required to follow the concepts covered in this book.

  16. Correlation Between Cone Penetration Rate And Measured Cone Penetration Parameters In Silty Soils

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Rikke; Nielsen, Benjaminn Nordahl; Ibsen, Lars Bo

    2013-01-01

    This paper shows, how a change in cone penetration rate affects the cone penetration measurements, hence the cone resistance, pore pressure, and sleeve friction in silty soil. The standard rate of penetration is 20 mm/s, and it is generally accepted that undrained penetration occurs in clay while...... drained penetration occurs in sand. When lowering the penetration rate, the soil pore water starts to dissipate and a change in the drainage condition is seen. In intermediate soils such as silty soils, the standard cone penetration rate may result in a drainage condition that could be undrained......, partially or fully drained. However, lowering the penetration rate in silty soils has a great significance because of the soil permeability, and only a small change in penetration rate will result in changed cone penetration measurements. In this paper, analyses will be done on data from 15 field cone...

  17. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  18. Skin penetration enhancement by a microneedle device (Dermaroller) in vitro

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badran, M M; Kuntsche, Judith; Fahr, A

    2009-01-01

    compared with an aqueous solution. Elevated TEWL values were measured after Dermaroller treatment compared to untreated human skin with a gradual increase of the TEWL over the first hour whereas afterwards the TEWL values decreased probably caused by a reduction of the pore size with time. Skin perforation......This study focused on the in vitro evaluation of skin perforation using a new microneedle device (Dermaroller) with different needle lengths (150, 500 and 1500 microm). The influence of the microneedle treatment on the morphology of the skin surface (studied by light and scanning electron...... microscopy), on the transepidermal water loss (TEWL) and on the penetration and permeation of hydrophilic model drugs was investigated using excised human full-thickness skin. Furthermore, invasomes - highly flexible phospholipid vesicles containing terpenes and ethanol as penetration enhancer - were...

  19. Introduction to probability with R

    CERN Document Server

    Baclawski, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

  20. Linguistic Intuitions and Cognitive Penetrability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Devitt

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Metalinguistic intuitions play a very large evidential role in both linguistics and philosophy. Linguists think that these intuitions are products of underlying linguistic competence. I call this view “the voice of competence” (“VoC”. Although many philosophers seem to think that metalinguistic intuitions are a priori many may implicitly hold the more scientifically respectable VoC. According to VoC, I argue, these intuitions can be cognitively penetrated by the central processor. But, I have argued elsewhere, VoC is false. Instead, we should hold “the modest explanation” (“ME” according to which these intuitions are fairly unreflective empirical theory-laden central-processor responses to phenomena. On ME, no question of cognitive penetration arises. ME has great methodological significance for the study of language. Insofar as we rely on intuitions as evidence we should prefer those of linguists and philosophers because they are more expert. But, more importantly, we should be seeking other evidence in linguistic usage.

  1. Penetration of tritium into the Tropical Pacific

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fine, R.A.; Peterson, W.H.; Ostlund, H.G.

    1987-01-01

    The persistence of subsurface tritium maxima coincident with the Equatorial Currents is used to show that advection along isopycnals by the mean wind-driven circulation is the dominant process in the at most 14-year time scale for the penetration of high northern latitude water to the equator (above 26.2 sigma-theta). Ventilation of the equatorial Pacific thermocline from the north contrasts sharply with the equatorial Atlantic thermocline which is ventilated from the south. The most striking manifestation of the North Pacific circulation is evidenced by a tritium maximum and salinity minimum at the equator between 145 0 and 125 0 W located above 25.6 sigma-theta. It shows that regardless of time of sampling the easter/central equator has received the highest latitude water, probably as a consequence of recirculation by the Equatorial Currents. Between the same meridians there is a tritium maximum on and north of the equator at the surface, which is interpreted as an expression of upwelling. Its coincidence with the cool tongue (Wyrtki) provides direct evidence that the upwelling process plays a dominant role in its maintenance on a decadal time scale

  2. Review of Literature on Probability of Detection for Liquid Penetrant Nondestructive Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-01

    increased maintenance costs , or catastrophic failure of safety- critical structure. Knowledge of the reliability achieved by NDT methods, including...representative components to gather data for statistical analysis, which can be prohibitively expensive. To account for sampling variability inherent in any...Sioux City and Pensacola. (Those recommendations were discussed in Section 3.4.) Drury et al report on a factorial experiment aimed at identifying the

  3. A first course in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon

    2014-01-01

    A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.

  4. Direct probability mapping of contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.

    1993-01-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. Geostatistical simulation provides powerful tools for investigating contaminant levels, and in particular, for identifying and using the spatial interrelationships among a set of isolated sample values. This additional information can be used to assess the likelihood of encountering contamination at unsampled locations and to evaluate the risk associated with decisions to remediate or not to remediate specific regions within a site. Past operation of the DOE Feed Materials Production Center has contaminated a site near Fernald, Ohio, with natural uranium. Soil geochemical data have been collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project. These data have been used to construct a number of stochastic images of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit. Each such image accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely, statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination. Evaluation of the geostatistical simulations can yield maps representing the expected magnitude of the contamination for various regions and other information that may be important in determining a suitable remediation process or in sizing equipment to accomplish the restoration

  5. Factors influencing reporting and harvest probabilities in North American geese

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, G.S.; Moser, T.J.; Kendall, W.L.; Doherty, P.F.; White, Gary C.; Caswell, D.F.

    2009-01-01

    We assessed variation in reporting probabilities of standard bands among species, populations, harvest locations, and size classes of North American geese to enable estimation of unbiased harvest probabilities. We included reward (US10,20,30,50, or100) and control (0) banded geese from 16 recognized goose populations of 4 species: Canada (Branta canadensis), cackling (B. hutchinsii), Ross's (Chen rossii), and snow geese (C. caerulescens). We incorporated spatially explicit direct recoveries and live recaptures into a multinomial model to estimate reporting, harvest, and band-retention probabilities. We compared various models for estimating harvest probabilities at country (United States vs. Canada), flyway (5 administrative regions), and harvest area (i.e., flyways divided into northern and southern sections) scales. Mean reporting probability of standard bands was 0.73 (95 CI 0.690.77). Point estimates of reporting probabilities for goose populations or spatial units varied from 0.52 to 0.93, but confidence intervals for individual estimates overlapped and model selection indicated that models with species, population, or spatial effects were less parsimonious than those without these effects. Our estimates were similar to recently reported estimates for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We provide current harvest probability estimates for these populations using our direct measures of reporting probability, improving the accuracy of previous estimates obtained from recovery probabilities alone. Goose managers and researchers throughout North America can use our reporting probabilities to correct recovery probabilities estimated from standard banding operations for deriving spatially explicit harvest probabilities.

  6. A brief introduction to probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

    2018-02-01

    The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

  7. Cable Braid Electromagnetic Penetration Model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warne, Larry K. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Langston, William L. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Basilio, Lorena I. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, W. A. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-06-01

    The model for penetration of a wire braid is rigorously formulated. Integral formulas are developed from energy principles and reciprocity for both self and transfer immittances in terms of potentials for the fields. The detailed boundary value problem for the wire braid is also setup in a very efficient manner; the braid wires act as sources for the potentials in the form of a sequence of line multipoles with unknown coefficients that are determined by means of conditions arising from the wire surface boundary conditions. Approximations are introduced to relate the local properties of the braid wires to a simplified infinite periodic planar geometry. This is used in a simplified application of reciprocity to be able to treat nonuniform coaxial geometries including eccentric interior coaxial arrangements and an exterior ground plane.

  8. Bodily action penetrates affective perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigutti, Sara; Gerbino, Walter

    2016-01-01

    Fantoni & Gerbino (2014) showed that subtle postural shifts associated with reaching can have a strong hedonic impact and affect how actors experience facial expressions of emotion. Using a novel Motor Action Mood Induction Procedure (MAMIP), they found consistent congruency effects in participants who performed a facial emotion identification task after a sequence of visually-guided reaches: a face perceived as neutral in a baseline condition appeared slightly happy after comfortable actions and slightly angry after uncomfortable actions. However, skeptics about the penetrability of perception (Zeimbekis & Raftopoulos, 2015) would consider such evidence insufficient to demonstrate that observer’s internal states induced by action comfort/discomfort affect perception in a top-down fashion. The action-modulated mood might have produced a back-end memory effect capable of affecting post-perceptual and decision processing, but not front-end perception. Here, we present evidence that performing a facial emotion detection (not identification) task after MAMIP exhibits systematic mood-congruent sensitivity changes, rather than response bias changes attributable to cognitive set shifts; i.e., we show that observer’s internal states induced by bodily action can modulate affective perception. The detection threshold for happiness was lower after fifty comfortable than uncomfortable reaches; while the detection threshold for anger was lower after fifty uncomfortable than comfortable reaches. Action valence induced an overall sensitivity improvement in detecting subtle variations of congruent facial expressions (happiness after positive comfortable actions, anger after negative uncomfortable actions), in the absence of significant response bias shifts. Notably, both comfortable and uncomfortable reaches impact sensitivity in an approximately symmetric way relative to a baseline inaction condition. All of these constitute compelling evidence of a genuine top-down effect on

  9. Bodily action penetrates affective perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Fantoni

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Fantoni & Gerbino (2014 showed that subtle postural shifts associated with reaching can have a strong hedonic impact and affect how actors experience facial expressions of emotion. Using a novel Motor Action Mood Induction Procedure (MAMIP, they found consistent congruency effects in participants who performed a facial emotion identification task after a sequence of visually-guided reaches: a face perceived as neutral in a baseline condition appeared slightly happy after comfortable actions and slightly angry after uncomfortable actions. However, skeptics about the penetrability of perception (Zeimbekis & Raftopoulos, 2015 would consider such evidence insufficient to demonstrate that observer’s internal states induced by action comfort/discomfort affect perception in a top-down fashion. The action-modulated mood might have produced a back-end memory effect capable of affecting post-perceptual and decision processing, but not front-end perception. Here, we present evidence that performing a facial emotion detection (not identification task after MAMIP exhibits systematic mood-congruent sensitivity changes, rather than response bias changes attributable to cognitive set shifts; i.e., we show that observer’s internal states induced by bodily action can modulate affective perception. The detection threshold for happiness was lower after fifty comfortable than uncomfortable reaches; while the detection threshold for anger was lower after fifty uncomfortable than comfortable reaches. Action valence induced an overall sensitivity improvement in detecting subtle variations of congruent facial expressions (happiness after positive comfortable actions, anger after negative uncomfortable actions, in the absence of significant response bias shifts. Notably, both comfortable and uncomfortable reaches impact sensitivity in an approximately symmetric way relative to a baseline inaction condition. All of these constitute compelling evidence of a genuine top

  10. Assessing high wind energy penetration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tande, J.O.

    1995-01-01

    In order to convincingly promote installing wind power capacity as a substantial part of the energy supply system, a set of careful analyses must be undertaken. This paper applies a case study concentrated on assessing the cost/benefit of high wind energy penetration. The case study considers expanding the grid connected wind power capacity in Praia, the capital of Cape Verde. The currently installed 1 MW of wind power is estimated to supply close to 10% of the electric energy consumption in 1996. Increasing the wind energy penetration to a higher level is considered viable as the project settings are close to ideal, including a very capable national utility company, Electra, a conventional power supply system based on imported heavy fuel and gas oil, and favourable wind conditions with an estimated annual average of 9.3 m/s at the hub height of the wind turbines. With the applied case study assumptions, simulations with WINSYS over the lifetime of the assessed wind power investment show that investments up to 4.2 MW are economically viable. The economic optimum is found at 2.4 MW reaching an internal rate of return of almost 8% p.a. This 2.4 MW of wind power would, together with the existing wind power, supply over 30% of the electric consumption in 1996. Applying the recommended practices for estimating the cost of wind energy, the life-cycle cost of this 2.4 MW investment is estimated at a 7% discount rate and a 20 year lifetime to 0.26 DKK/kW h. (Author)

  11. Varieties of cognitive penetration in visual perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetter, Petra; Newen, Albert

    2014-07-01

    Is our perceptual experience a veridical representation of the world or is it a product of our beliefs and past experiences? Cognitive penetration describes the influence of higher level cognitive factors on perceptual experience and has been a debated topic in philosophy of mind and cognitive science. Here, we focus on visual perception, particularly early vision, and how it is affected by contextual expectations and memorized cognitive contents. We argue for cognitive penetration based on recent empirical evidence demonstrating contextual and top-down influences on early visual processes. On the basis of a perceptual model, we propose different types of cognitive penetration depending on the processing level on which the penetration happens and depending on where the penetrating influence comes from. Our proposal has two consequences: (1) the traditional controversy on whether cognitive penetration occurs or not is ill posed, and (2) a clear-cut perception-cognition boundary cannot be maintained. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Percutaneous penetration studies for risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sartorelli, Vittorio; Andersen, Helle Raun; Angerer, Jürgen

    2000-01-01

    . In order to predict the systemic risk of dermally absorbed chemicals and to enable agencies to set safety standards, data is needed on the rates of percutaneous penetration of important chemicals. Standardization of in vitro tests and comparison of their results with the in vivo data could produce...... internationally accepted penetration rates and/or absorption percentages very useful for regulatory toxicology. The work of the Percutaneous Penetration Subgroup of EC Dermal Exposure Network has been focussed on the standardization and validation of in vitro experiments, necessary to obtain internationally...... accepted penetration rates for regulatory purposes. The members of the Subgroup analyzed the guidelines on percutaneous penetration in vitro studies presented by various organizations and suggested a standardization of in vitro models for percutaneous penetration taking into account their individual...

  13. Ethical hacking and penetration testing guide

    CERN Document Server

    Baloch, Rafay

    2014-01-01

    Requiring no prior hacking experience, Ethical Hacking and Penetration Testing Guide supplies a complete introduction to the steps required to complete a penetration test, or ethical hack, from beginning to end. You will learn how to properly utilize and interpret the results of modern-day hacking tools, which are required to complete a penetration test. The book covers a wide range of tools, including Backtrack Linux, Google reconnaissance, MetaGooFil, dig, Nmap, Nessus, Metasploit, Fast Track Autopwn, Netcat, and Hacker Defender rootkit. Supplying a simple and clean explanation of how to effectively utilize these tools, it details a four-step methodology for conducting an effective penetration test or hack.Providing an accessible introduction to penetration testing and hacking, the book supplies you with a fundamental understanding of offensive security. After completing the book you will be prepared to take on in-depth and advanced topics in hacking and penetration testing. The book walks you through each ...

  14. Are high penetrations of commercial cogeneration good for society?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, Jeremy F.; Apt, Jay

    2016-12-01

    Low natural gas prices, market reports and evidence from New York State suggest that the number of commercial combined heat and power (CHP) installations in the United States will increase by 2%-9% annually over the next decade. We investigate how increasing commercial CHP penetrations may affect net emissions, the distribution network, and total system energy costs. We constructed an integrated planning and operations model that maximizes owner profit through sizing and operation of CHP on a realistic distribution feeder in New York. We find that a greater penetration of CHP reduces both total system energy costs and network congestion. Commercial buildings often have low and inconsistent heat loads, which can cause low fuel utilization efficiencies, low CHP rates-of-return and diminishing avoided emissions as CHP penetration increases. In the northeast, without policy intervention, a 5% penetration of small commercially owned CHP would increase CO2 emissions by 2% relative to the bulk power grid. Low emission CHP installations can be encouraged with incentives that promote CHP operation only during times of high heat loads. Time-varying rates, such as time-of-day and seasonal rates, are one option and were shown to reduce customer emissions without reducing profits. In contrast, natural gas rate discounts, a common incentive for industrial CHP in some states, can encourage CHP operation during low heat loads and thus increase emissions.

  15. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  16. Initial response of a rock penetrator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Longcope, D.B.; Grady, D.E.

    1977-12-01

    An analysis based on elastic rod theory is given for the early-time axisymmetric response of pointed penetrators. Results of measurements by laser interferometry of the back surface particle velocity of laboratory scale penetrators impacted by sandstone targets are presented. Values of the initial pressure on the penetrator tip are determined which give good agreement between the analytical and experimental results. These initial tip pressures are found to be approximated by the stress-particle velocity Hugoniot for the target material

  17. In-place HEPA filter penetration test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergman, W.; Wilson, K.; Elliott, J.; Bettencourt, B.; Slawski, J.W.

    1997-01-01

    We have demonstrated the feasibility of conducting penetration tests on high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters as installed in nuclear ventilation systems. The in-place penetration test, which is designed to yield equivalent penetration measurements as the standard DOP efficiency test, is based on measuring the aerosol penetration of the filter installation as a function of particle size using a portable laser particle counter. This in-place penetration test is compared to the current in-place leak test using light scattering photometers for single HEPA filter installations and for HEPA filter plenums using the shroud method. Test results show the in-place penetration test is more sensitive than the in-place leak test, has a similar operating procedure, but takes longer to conduct. Additional tests are required to confirm that the in-place penetration test yields identical results as the standard dioctyl phthalate (DOP) penetration test for HEPA filters with controlled leaks in the filter and gasket and duct by-pass leaks. Further development of the procedure is also required to reduce the test time before the in- place penetration test is practical

  18. In-place HEPA filter penetration test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergman, W.; Wilson, K.; Elliott, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)] [and others

    1997-08-01

    We have demonstrated the feasibility of conducting penetration tests on high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters as installed in nuclear ventilation systems. The in-place penetration test, which is designed to yield equivalent penetration measurements as the standard DOP efficiency test, is based on measuring the aerosol penetration of the filter installation as a function of particle size using a portable laser particle counter. This in-place penetration test is compared to the current in-place leak test using light scattering photometers for single HEPA filter installations and for HEPA filter plenums using the shroud method. Test results show the in-place penetration test is more sensitive than the in-place leak test, has a similar operating procedure, but takes longer to conduct. Additional tests are required to confirm that the in-place penetration test yields identical results as the standard dioctyl phthalate (DOP) penetration test for HEPA filters with controlled leaks in the filter and gasket and duct by-pass leaks. Further development of the procedure is also required to reduce the test time before the in-place penetration test is practical. 14 refs., 14 figs., 3 tabs.

  19. Mechanism of long-range penetration of low-energy ions in botanic samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Feng; Wang Yugang; Xue Jianming; Wang Sixue; Du Guanghua; Yan Sha; Zhao Weijiang

    2002-01-01

    The authors present experimental evidence to reveal the mechanism of long-range penetration of low-energy ions in botanic samples. In the 100 keV Ar + ion transmission measurement, the result confirmed that low-energy ions could penetrate at least 60 μm thick kidney bean slices with the probability of about 1.0 x 10 -5 . The energy spectrum of 1 MeV He + ions penetrating botanic samples has shown that there is a peak of the count of ions with little energy loss. The probability of the low-energy ions penetrating the botanic sample is almost the same as that of the high-energy ions penetrating the same samples with little energy loss. The results indicate that there are some micro-regions with mass thickness less than the projectile range of low-energy ions in the botanic samples and they result in the long-range penetration of low-energy ions in botanic samples

  20. Stochastic dynamics of penetrable rods in one dimension: occupied volume and spatial order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craven, Galen T; Popov, Alexander V; Hernandez, Rigoberto

    2013-06-28

    The occupied volume of a penetrable hard rod (HR) system in one dimension is probed through the use of molecular dynamics simulations. In these dynamical simulations, collisions between penetrable rods are governed by a stochastic penetration algorithm (SPA), which allows for rods to either interpenetrate with a probability δ, or collide elastically otherwise. The limiting values of this parameter, δ = 0 and δ = 1, correspond to the HR and the ideal limits, respectively. At intermediate values, 0 exclusive and independent events is observed, making prediction of the occupied volume nontrivial. At high hard core volume fractions φ0, the occupied volume expression derived by Rikvold and Stell [J. Chem. Phys. 82, 1014 (1985)] for permeable systems does not accurately predict the occupied volume measured from the SPA simulations. Multi-body effects contribute significantly to the pair correlation function g2(r) and the simplification by Rikvold and Stell that g2(r) = δ in the penetrative region is observed to be inaccurate for the SPA model. We find that an integral over the penetrative region of g2(r) is the principal quantity that describes the particle overlap ratios corresponding to the observed penetration probabilities. Analytic formulas are developed to predict the occupied volume of mixed systems and agreement is observed between these theoretical predictions and the results measured from simulation.

  1. Prediction and probability in sciences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.

    1998-01-01

    This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)

  2. Applied probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Sumita, Ushio

    1999-01-01

    Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

  3. Influence of jet thrust on penetrator penetration when studying the structure of space object blanket

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Fedorova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the calculation-and-theory-based research results to examine the possibility for using the jet thrust impulse to increase a penetration depth of high-velocity penetrator modules. Such devices can be used for studies of Earth surface layer composition, and in the nearest future for other Solar system bodies too. Research equipment (sensors and different instruments is housed inside a metal body of the penetrator with a sharpened nose that decreases drag force in soil. It was assumed, that this penetrator is additionally equipped with the pulse jet engine, which is fired at a certain stage of penetrator motion into target.The penetrator is considered as a rigid body of variable mass, which is subjected to drag force and reactive force applied at the moment the engine fires. A drag force was represented with a binomial empirical law, and penetrator nose part was considered to be conical. The jet thrust force was supposed to be constant during its application time. It was in accordance with assumption that mass flow and flow rate of solid propellant combustion products were constant. The amount of propellant in the penetrator was characterized by Tsiolkovsky number Z, which specifies the ratio between the fuel mass and the penetrator structure mass with no fuel.The system of equations to describe the penetrator dynamics was given in dimensionless form using the values aligned with penetration of an equivalent inert penetrator as the time and penetration depth scales. Penetration dynamics of penetrator represented in this form allowed to eliminate the influence of penetrator initial mass and its cross-section diameter on the solution results. The lack of such dependency is convenient for comparing the calculation results since they hold for penetrators of various initial masses and cross-sections.To calculate the penetration a lunar regolith was taken as a soil material. Calculations were carried out for initial velocities of

  4. Poisson Processes in Free Probability

    OpenAIRE

    An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu

    2015-01-01

    We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...

  5. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  6. Evaluating penetration-monitoring systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markin, J.T.

    1981-01-01

    Evaluating the performance of a process monitoring system in detecting improper activities that could be related to material diversion requires a framework for addressing the complexity and statistical uncertainty of such systems. This report proposes a methodology that determines the optimal divertor strategy against a monitoring system and the system probability of detection. This method extends previous work by correctly modeling uncorrelated and correlated measurement errors for radiation monitors

  7. Seismic Ground Motion Hazards with 2 Percent Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This map layer shows seismic hazard in the United States. The data represent a model showing the probability that ground motion will reach a certain level. This map...

  8. Seismic Ground Motion Hazards with 10 Percent Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This map layer shows seismic hazard in the United States. The data represent a model showing the probability that ground motion will reach a certain level. This map...

  9. Nomogram for predicting the probability of the positive outcome of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    F.A. Yeboah

    distribution, the median and inter quartile (IQR) values were used. ... Crude or adjusted odds ratios and ... model, the estimated probability of a positive biopsy was calcu- ..... Gratitude goes to workers at Department of Surgery (Urology Unit).

  10. The probability of a tornado missile hitting a target

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodman, J.; Koch, J.E.

    1983-01-01

    It is shown that tornado missile transportation is a diffusion Markovian process. Therefore, the Green's function method is applied for the estimation of the probability of hitting a unit target area. This propability is expressed through a joint density of tornado intensity and path area, a probability of tornado missile injection and a tornado missile height distribution. (orig.)

  11. A note on the transition probability over Csup(*)-algebras

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberti, P.M.; Karl-Marx-Universitaet, Leipzig

    1983-01-01

    The algebraic structure of Uhlmann's transition probability between mixed states on unital Csup(*)-algebras is analyzed. Several improvements of methods to calculate the transition probability are fixed, examples are given (e.g., the case of quasi-local Csup(*)-algebras is dealt with) and two more functional characterizations are proved in general. (orig.)

  12. LAPAROSCOPIC MANAGEMENT OF RETROPERITONEAL INJURIES IN PENETRATING ABDOMINAL INJURIES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosai, F

    2017-09-01

    Laparoscopy in penetrating abdominal injuries is now accepted and practiced in many modern trauma centres. However its role in evaluating and managing retroperitoneal injuries is not yet well established. The aim of this study was to document our experience in using laparoscopy in a setting of penetrating abdominal injuries with suspected retroperitoneal injury in haemodynamically stable patients. A retrospective descriptive study of prospectively collected data from a trauma unit at Dr George Mukhari Academic Hospital (DGMAH) was done. All haemodynamically stable patients with penetrating abdominal injury who were offered laparoscopy from January 2012 to December 2015 were reviewed and those who met the inclusion criteria were analysed. A total of 284 patients with penetrating abdominal injuries were reviewed and 56 met the inclusion criteria and were analysed. The median age was 30.8 years (15-60 years) and males constituted 87.5% of the study population. The most common mechanism of injury was penetrating stab wounds (62.5%). Forty-five patients (80.3%) were managed laparoscopically, of these n=16 (28.5%) had retroperitoneal injuries that required surgical intervention. The most commonly injured organ was the colon (19.6%). The conversion rate was 19.6% with most common indication for conversion been active bleeding (14%). The complication rate was 7.14% (N=4) and were all Clavien-Dindo grade 3. There were no recorded missed injuries and no mortality. The positive outcomes documented in this study with no missed injuries and absence of mortality suggests that laparoscopy is a feasible option in managing stable patients with suspected retroperitoneal injuries.

  13. [Our experience in the cases with penetrating colonic injuries].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahya, Mehmet Cemal; Derici, Hayrullah; Cin, Necat; Tatar, Fatma; Peker, Yasin; Genç, Hüdai; Deniz, Vedat; Reyhan, Enver

    2006-07-01

    In this study, the factors that effect the morbidity and mortality in patients with penetrating colonic injuries were evaluated. Fourty-two patients (37 males, 5 females; mean age 30,1; range 14 to 63 years) with penetrating colonic trauma were evaluated according to age, gender, type of penetrating trauma, location and severity of the colonic injury, associated injury, interval between the trauma and the definitive operation, hemodynamic status, blood transfusion requirement, fecal contamination, surgical procedure, postoperative complication and mortality. Type of the penetrating trauma was stab injury in twenty-eight (67%) patients, and gunshot injury in fourteen (33%) patients. The mean Colon Injury Severity Score was 2,1. The mean Abdominal Trauma Index (ATI) was 17,2 and it was over than 25 in eight (19%) patients. The symptoms of shock were present in eleven (26%) patients at admission. Blood transfusions were applied in sixteen (38%) patients. In twenty-one patients intraabdominal bleeding was observed and it was more than 500 mL in eleven (26%) patients. Primary repair was performed in 36 (86%) of the 42 patients and colostomy was performed in six (14%) patients. Morbidity and mortality rates were 41% and 10% respectively. It was found that morbidity rates were increased in patients with ATI score higher than 25, and mortality rates were increased in patients presenting shock at admission, with the amount of intraabdominal blood more than 500 mL, and who needed three or more units of blood transfusion. The primary repair of the penetrating colon trauma can be performed confidently in the hemodynamically stable patients with ATI score less than 25.

  14. Geohydrology of volcanic tuff penetrated by test well UE-25b#1, Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahoud, R.G.; Lobmeyer, D.H.; Whitfield, M.S.

    1984-01-01

    Test well UE-25bNo1, located on the east side of Yucca Mountain in the southwestern part of the Nevada Test Site, was drilled to a total depth of 1,220 meters and hydraulically tested as part of a program to evaluate the suitability of Yucca Mountain as a nuclear-waste repository. The well penetrated almost 46 meters of alluvium and 1,174 meters of Tertiary volcanic tuffs. The composite hydraulic head for aquifers penetrated by the well was 728.9 meters above sea level (471.4 meters below land surface) with a slight decrease in loss of hydraulic head with depth. Average hydraulic conductivities for stratigraphic units determined from pumping tests, borehole-flow surveys, and packer-injection tests ranged from less than 0.001 meter per day for the Tram Member of the Crater Flat Tuff to 1.1 meters per day for the Bullfrog Member of the Crater Flat Tuff. The small values represented matrix permeability of unfractured rock; the large values probably resulted from fracture permeability. Chemical analyses indicated that the water is a soft sodium bicarbonate type, slightly alkaline, with large concentrations of dissolved silica and sulfate. Uncorrected carbon-14 age dates of the water were 14,100 and 13,400 years. (USGS)

  15. A review of penetration mechanisms and dynamic properties of tungsten and depleted uranium penetrators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrew, S.P.; Caligiuri, R.D.; Eiselstein, L.E.

    1991-01-01

    Kinetic energy penetrators must posses the best possible combination of hardness, stiffness, strength, and fracture toughness characteristics to be effective against modern armor systems. Over the last decade, depleted uranium (DU) and tungsten alloys have been the materials of choice for kinetic energy penetrators. Du and tungsten perform abut the same against semi-infinite targets, and DU outperforms tungsten penetrators in oblique, spaced array targets, but because of environmental and subsequent cost concerns, effort has focused on improving the performance of tungsten penetrators over the last few years. However, despite recent improvements in material properties, the penetration performance of tungsten still lags behind that of DU. One possible reason is the difference in deformation mechanisms at the leading edge of the penetrator during the penetration process-DU alloys tend to shear band and sharpen as they penetrate the target material, whereas tungsten penetrators tend to mushroom and blunt. As a first step to determine whether shear banding is truly the reason for superior DU performance, a review of the fabrication, high strain-rate properties, and penetration phenomena of penetrators manufactured from both tungsten and DU alloys. Specifically, the effects of composition, processing, and heat treatment on material properties and penetration mechanisms of these alloys are discussed

  16. Quantitative penetration testing with item response theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pieters, W.; Arnold, F.; Stoelinga, M.I.A.

    2013-01-01

    Existing penetration testing approaches assess the vulnerability of a system by determining whether certain attack paths are possible in practice. Therefore, penetration testing has thus far been used as a qualitative research method. To enable quantitative approaches to security risk management,

  17. Quantitative Penetration Testing with Item Response Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, Florian; Pieters, Wolter; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    2014-01-01

    Existing penetration testing approaches assess the vulnerability of a system by determining whether certain attack paths are possible in practice. Thus, penetration testing has so far been used as a qualitative research method. To enable quantitative approaches to security risk management, including

  18. Quantitative penetration testing with item response theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, Florian; Pieters, Wolter; Stoelinga, Mariëlle

    2013-01-01

    Existing penetration testing approaches assess the vulnerability of a system by determining whether certain attack paths are possible in practice. Thus, penetration testing has so far been used as a qualitative research method. To enable quantitative approaches to security risk management, including

  19. Probability inequalities for decomposition integrals

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 315, č. 1 (2017), s. 240-248 ISSN 0377-0427 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Decomposition integral * Superdecomposition integral * Probability inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0470959.pdf

  20. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1994-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  1. Technical impacts of high penetration levels of wind power on power system stability

    OpenAIRE

    Flynn, Damian; Rather, Z.; Ardal, Atle; Darco, Salvatore; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Estanqueiro, Ana; Gomez, Emilio; Menemenlis, Nickie; Smith, Charlie; Wang, Ye

    2017-01-01

    With increasing penetrations of wind generation, based on power-electronic converters, power systems are transitioning away from well-understood synchronous generator-based systems, with growing implications for their stability. Issues of concern will vary with system size, wind penetration level, geographical distribution and turbine type, network topology, electricity market structure, unit commitment procedures, and other factors. However, variable-speed wind turbines, both onshore and con...

  2. On-scene time and outcome after penetrating trauma: an observational study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Funder, Kamillia S.; Steinmetz, Jacob; Petersen, John Asger

    2011-01-01

    This was an observational cohort study of penetrating trauma patients treated by the Mobile Emergency Care Unit in Copenhagen with a 30-day follow-up. Between January 2002 and September 2009, data were prospectively registered regarding the anatomical location of the trauma, time intervals and procedures performed......-scene time might be important in penetrating trauma, and ALS procedures should not delay transport to definite care at the hospital....

  3. Invariant probabilities of transition functions

    CERN Document Server

    Zaharopol, Radu

    2014-01-01

    The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...

  4. Introduction to probability with Mathematica

    CERN Document Server

    Hastings, Kevin J

    2009-01-01

    Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...

  5. MDCT diagnosis of penetrating diaphragm injury

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bodanapally, Uttam K.; Shanmuganathan, Kathirkamanathan; Mirvis, Stuart E.; Sliker, Clint W.; Fleiter, Thorsten R.; Sarada, Kamal; Miller, Lisa A. [University of Maryland School of Medicine, Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Baltimore, MD (United States); Stein, Deborah M. [University of Maryland, Department of Surgery, Shock Trauma Center, Baltimore, MD (United States); Alexander, Melvin [National Study Center for Trauma and Emergency Medical Systems, Baltimore, MD (United States)

    2009-08-15

    The purpose of the study was to determine the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of multidetector CT (MDCT) in detection of diaphragmatic injury following penetrating trauma. Chest and abdominal CT examinations performed preoperatively in 136 patients after penetrating trauma to the torso with injury trajectory in close proximity to the diaphragm were reviewed by radiologists unaware of surgical findings. Signs associated with diaphragmatic injuries in penetrating trauma were noted. These signs were correlated with surgical diagnoses, and their sensitivity and specificity in assisting the diagnosis were calculated. CT confirmed diaphragmatic injury in 41 of 47 injuries (sensitivity, 87.2%), and an intact diaphragm in 71 of 98 patients (specificity, 72.4%). The overall accuracy of MDCT was 77%. The most accurate sign helping the diagnosis was contiguous injury on either side of the diaphragm in single-entry penetrating trauma (sensitivity, 88%; specificity, 82%). Thus MDCT has high sensitivity and good specificity in detecting penetrating diaphragmatic injuries. (orig.)

  6. MDCT diagnosis of penetrating diaphragm injury

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodanapally, Uttam K.; Shanmuganathan, Kathirkamanathan; Mirvis, Stuart E.; Sliker, Clint W.; Fleiter, Thorsten R.; Sarada, Kamal; Miller, Lisa A.; Stein, Deborah M.; Alexander, Melvin

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to determine the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of multidetector CT (MDCT) in detection of diaphragmatic injury following penetrating trauma. Chest and abdominal CT examinations performed preoperatively in 136 patients after penetrating trauma to the torso with injury trajectory in close proximity to the diaphragm were reviewed by radiologists unaware of surgical findings. Signs associated with diaphragmatic injuries in penetrating trauma were noted. These signs were correlated with surgical diagnoses, and their sensitivity and specificity in assisting the diagnosis were calculated. CT confirmed diaphragmatic injury in 41 of 47 injuries (sensitivity, 87.2%), and an intact diaphragm in 71 of 98 patients (specificity, 72.4%). The overall accuracy of MDCT was 77%. The most accurate sign helping the diagnosis was contiguous injury on either side of the diaphragm in single-entry penetrating trauma (sensitivity, 88%; specificity, 82%). Thus MDCT has high sensitivity and good specificity in detecting penetrating diaphragmatic injuries. (orig.)

  7. Length of stay for childbirth in Trentino (North-East of Italy): the impact of maternal characteristics and organizational features of the maternity unit on the probability of early discharge of healthy, term infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pertile, Riccardo; Pavanello, Lucia; Soffiati, Massimo; Manica, Laura; Piffer, Silvano

    2018-01-01

    Early discharge (ED) of healthy term infants has become a common practice due to current social and economic needs. The primary objective of the present study was to evaluate trends in early discharge of healthy term neonates (≥ 37 gestational weeks) by delivery method (cesarean and vaginal) in maternity units in the Province of Trento. The secondary objective was to identify the socio-demographic characteristics (including the area of residence and distance from the designated hospital) and clinical characteristics of mothers whose infants were discharged early. This retrospective study reviewed records of live births from 2006 to 2016, for a total of 45, 314 healthy term infants. The trend for ED grew significantly during the period 2006-2016, for both cesarean and vaginal deliveries. The multiple logistic regression analysis shows how the determinants of ED are maternal age, birth order, citizenship of mother, maternal smoking, maternal employment status, and the number of births at the hospital on the day of birth. The post-partum length of stay should be adjusted based on the characteristics and needs of the mother-infant dyad, identifying the criteria for safe discharge. In Trento, various procedures and programs are becoming more uniform today with the intention to provide family assistance service. What is Known: • Admission for childbirth is one of the primary causes of hospitalization in industrialized countries. • The length of stay for childbirth has been steadily declining in recent decades, with the aim of reducing costs while also demedicalizing pregnancy. What is New: • A higher rate of early discharge (ED) was recorded for neonates of women having foreign citizenship, entrepreneurs, self-employed professionals or managers. • ED was more common when the new mother gave birth on a day in which there was a higher number of births at the hospital, indicating overcrowding in the maternity unit.

  8. Linear positivity and virtual probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartle, James B.

    2004-01-01

    We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics

  9. Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

    2011-01-01

    Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

  10. Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandy, W. T. Jr.

    2009-01-01

    In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

  11. Transconjunctival penetration of mitomycin C

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Velpandian T

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: The study was performed to estimate transconjunctival penetration of mitomycin C (MMC to Tenon′s tissue following application over the intact conjunctiva before routine trabeculectomy. Settings and Design: Institution-based case series. Materials and Methods: In 41 eyes of 41 patients, MMC (0.4 mg/ml for 3 min was applied over the intact conjunctiva before beginning trabeculectomy. Tenon′s capsule directly beneath the site of application was excised during trabeculectomy and was homogenized, centrifuged and MMC concentrations were analyzed using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC. Statistical Analysis Used: Statistical analysis was performed using stata0 8.0 version software (STATA Corporation, Houston, TX, USA. In this study, P -values less than 0.05 were considered as statistically significant. Results: The average weight of the sample of Tenon′s tissue excised was 5.51 ± 4.42 mg (range: 0.9-17.1 and the average estimated MMC concentration found to be present in Tenon′s tissue using HPLC was 18.67 ± 32.36 x 10−6 moles/kg of the tissue (range: 0.38-197.05 x 10−6 . In 36 of the 41 patients (87.80%, the MMC concentration reached above 2 x 10−6 moles/kg of the tissue concentration required to inhibit human conjunctival fibroblasts. Conclusions: Mitomycin C does permeate into the subconjunctival tissue after supraconjunctival application for 3 min. Application of MMC over the conjunctiva may be a useful alternative to subconjunctival or subscleral application during routine trabeculectomy and as an adjunct for failing blebs.

  12. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Probability with applications and R

    CERN Document Server

    Dobrow, Robert P

    2013-01-01

    An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

  14. A philosophical essay on probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Laplace, Marquis de

    1996-01-01

    A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application

  15. Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

    2015-04-01

    This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Free probability and random matrices

    CERN Document Server

    Mingo, James A

    2017-01-01

    This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.

  17. Introduction to probability and measure

    CERN Document Server

    Parthasarathy, K R

    2005-01-01

    According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.

  18. INFLUENCE OF USUAL AND DUAL WHEELS ON SOIL PENETRATION RESISTANCE: THE GIS-APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhukov A. V.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available GIS-APPROACH application has allowed establishing that usual wheels of machine-tractor units carry out considerable influence on soil which exceeds visible borders of a track of wheels on the dimensions. This influence shows in augmentation of soil penetration resistance at 100-155 % in comparison with the control on depth of 0-10 cm and on 20-30 % on depth of 45-50 %. It is impossible to exclude that influence of wheels proceeds more deeply, than tests have been conducted. Critical for cultivated plants value of soil penetration resistance in 3 MPa under the influence of usual wheels of agricultural machinery comes nearer practically to a surface. Character of profile changes of hardness in various regions influences of wheels allows assuming the long season of a relaxation of soil for achievement of background values of soil penetration resistance. The further researches are necessary for an establishment of concrete indicators of dynamics. Negative influence of an overstocking does not confine only deterioration of conditions of growth of assemblages of rootlets of plants. Infringement of processes of moving of moisture in the soil, the accelerated evaporation and the slowed down processes of a filtration and an infiltration, destruction of modular frame, activization of erosive processes is possible. The understanding of these processes will give the chance volume understanding of real influence of running systems of machine-tractor devices on bedrock. Region intensive influence of dual wheels is circumscribed by the top soil layers (0-15 cm. The major feature of influence of dual wheels is absence of an overstocking above critical levels. It is impossible to exclude possible positive influence of moderate inspissations of soil under the influence of dual wheels for growth of agricultural crops and moisture conservation in soil. The cumulative negative effect on soil crossed vehicles traces is probable. The long season of a relaxation of

  19. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acacio de Barros, J.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  20. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)

    2012-12-18

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  1. Default probabilities and default correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans

    2001-01-01

    Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...

  2. The Probabilities of Unique Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    Washington, DC USA Max Lotstein and Phil Johnson-Laird Department of Psychology Princeton University Princeton, NJ USA August 30th 2012...social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. The participants ranked the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller as...retorted that such a flagrant violation of the probability calculus was a result of a psychological experiment that obscured the rationality of the

  3. Probability Matching, Fast and Slow

    OpenAIRE

    Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta

    2014-01-01

    A prominent point of contention among researchers regarding the interpretation of probability-matching behavior is whether it represents a cognitively sophisticated, adaptive response to the inherent uncertainty of the tasks or settings in which it is observed, or whether instead it represents a fundamental shortcoming in the heuristics that support and guide human decision making. Put crudely, researchers disagree on whether probability matching is "smart" or "dumb." Here, we consider eviden...

  4. Miniature Ground Penetrating Radar, CRUX GPR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Soon Sam; Carnes, Steven R.; Haldemann, Albert F.; Ulmer, Christopher T.; Ng, Eddie; Arcone, Steven A.

    2006-01-01

    Under NASA instrument development programs (PIDDP 2000-2002, MIPD 2003-2005, ESR and T, 2005) we have been developing miniature ground penetrating radars (GPR) for use in mapping subsurface stratigraphy from planetary rovers for Mars and lunar applications. The Mars GPR is for deeper penetration (up to 50 m depth) into the Martian subsurface at moderate resolution (0.5 m) for a geological characterization. As a part of the CRUX (Construction and Resource Utilization Explorer) instrument suite, the CRUX GPR is optimized for a lunar prospecting application. It will have shallower penetration (5 m depth) with higher resolution (10 cm) for construction operations including ISRU (in-situ resource utilization).

  5. Development of coring, consolidating, subterrene penetrators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, H.D.; Neudecker, J.W.; Cort, G.E.; Turner, W.C.; McFarland, R.D.; Griggs, J.E.

    1976-02-01

    Coring penetrators offer two advantages over full face-melting penetrators, i.e., formation of larger boreholes with no increase in power and the production of glass-lined, structurally undisturbed cores which can be recovered with conventional core-retrieval systems. These cores are of significant value in geological exploratory drilling programs. The initial design details and fabrication features of a 114-mm-diam coring penetrator are discussed; significant factors for design optimization are also presented. Results of laboratory testing are reported and compared with performance predictions, and an initial field trial is described

  6. Sphere impact and penetration into wet sand

    KAUST Repository

    Marston, J. O.

    2012-08-07

    We present experimental results for the penetration of a solid sphere when released onto wet sand. We show, by measuring the final penetration depth, that the cohesion induced by the water can result in either a deeper or shallower penetration for a given release height compared to dry granular material. Thus the presence of water can either lubricate or stiffen the granular material. By assuming the shear rate is proportional to the impact velocity and using the depth-averaged stopping force in calculating the shear stress, we derive effective viscosities for the wet granular materials.

  7. Sphere impact and penetration into wet sand

    KAUST Repository

    Marston, J. O.; Vakarelski, Ivan Uriev; Thoroddsen, Sigurdur T

    2012-01-01

    We present experimental results for the penetration of a solid sphere when released onto wet sand. We show, by measuring the final penetration depth, that the cohesion induced by the water can result in either a deeper or shallower penetration for a given release height compared to dry granular material. Thus the presence of water can either lubricate or stiffen the granular material. By assuming the shear rate is proportional to the impact velocity and using the depth-averaged stopping force in calculating the shear stress, we derive effective viscosities for the wet granular materials.

  8. A Mass Loss Penetration Model to Investigate the Dynamic Response of a Projectile Penetrating Concrete considering Mass Abrasion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NianSong Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A study on the dynamic response of a projectile penetrating concrete is conducted. The evolutional process of projectile mass loss and the effect of mass loss on penetration resistance are investigated using theoretical methods. A projectile penetration model considering projectile mass loss is established in three stages, namely, cratering phase, mass loss penetration phase, and remainder rigid projectile penetration phase.

  9. Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Dworsky, Lawrence N

    2008-01-01

    An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

  10. Independent risk factors of morbidity in penetrating colon injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgin, Sadullah; Gedik, Ercan; Uysal, Ersin; Taçyildiz, Ibrahim Halil

    2009-05-01

    The present study explored the factors effective on colon-related morbidity in patients with penetrating injury of the colon. The medical records of 196 patients were reviewed for variables including age, gender, factor of trauma, time between injury and operation, shock, duration of operation, Penetrating Abdominal Trauma Index (PATI), Injury Severity Score (ISS), site of colon injury, Colon Injury Score, fecal contamination, number of associated intra- and extraabdominal organ injuries, units of transfused blood within the first 24 hours, and type of surgery. In order to determine the independent risk factors, multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. Gunshot wounds, interval between injury and operation > or =6 hours, shock, duration of the operation > or =6 hours, PATI > or =25, ISS > or =20, Colon Injury Score > or = grade 3, major fecal contamination, number of associated intraabdominal organ injuries >2, number of associated extraabdominal organ injuries >2, multiple blood transfusions, and diversion were significantly associated with morbidity. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed diversion and transfusion of > or =4 units in the first 24 hours as independent risk factors affecting colon-related morbidity. Diversion and transfusion of > or =4 units in the first 24 hours were determined to be independent risk factors for colon-related morbidity.

  11. System-wide emissions implications of increased wind power penetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentino, Lauren; Valenzuela, Viviana; Botterud, Audun; Zhou, Zhi; Conzelmann, Guenter

    2012-04-03

    This paper discusses the environmental effects of incorporating wind energy into the electric power system. We present a detailed emissions analysis based on comprehensive modeling of power system operations with unit commitment and economic dispatch for different wind penetration levels. First, by minimizing cost, the unit commitment model decides which thermal power plants will be utilized based on a wind power forecast, and then, the economic dispatch model dictates the level of production for each unit as a function of the realized wind power generation. Finally, knowing the power production from each power plant, the emissions are calculated. The emissions model incorporates the effects of both cycling and start-ups of thermal power plants in analyzing emissions from an electric power system with increasing levels of wind power. Our results for the power system in the state of Illinois show significant emissions effects from increased cycling and particularly start-ups of thermal power plants. However, we conclude that as the wind power penetration increases, pollutant emissions decrease overall due to the replacement of fossil fuels.

  12. Microgrid optimal scheduling considering impact of high penetration wind generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alanazi, Abdulaziz

    The objective of this thesis is to study the impact of high penetration wind energy in economic and reliable operation of microgrids. Wind power is variable, i.e., constantly changing, and nondispatchable, i.e., cannot be controlled by the microgrid controller. Thus an accurate forecasting of wind power is an essential task in order to study its impacts in microgrid operation. Two commonly used forecasting methods including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) have been used in this thesis to improve the wind power forecasting. The forecasting error is calculated using a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and is improved using the ANN. The wind forecast is further used in the microgrid optimal scheduling problem. The microgrid optimal scheduling is performed by developing a viable model for security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) based on mixed-integer linear programing (MILP) method. The proposed SCUC is solved for various wind penetration levels and the relationship between the total cost and the wind power penetration is found. In order to reduce microgrid power transfer fluctuations, an additional constraint is proposed and added to the SCUC formulation. The new constraint would control the time-based fluctuations. The impact of the constraint on microgrid SCUC results is tested and validated with numerical analysis. Finally, the applicability of proposed models is demonstrated through numerical simulations.

  13. The penetration of aerosols through fine orifices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marshall, I.A.; Latham, L.J.; Ball, M.H.E.; Mitchell, J.P.

    1991-07-01

    A novel experimental technique has been extended to study the migration of gas-borne glass microspheres in the size range from about 1 to 15 μm volume equivalent diameter through orifices with bores and thicknesses in the range from 2 to 100 μm and 12.7 to 509 μm respectively. The penetration of these particles was significant with all orifices greater than 10 μm bore at a constant driving pressure of 100 kPa. However, few particles penetrated the 5 μm bore orifice, while virtually no particles penetrated the 2 μm bore orifice. Particle size distributions determined after penetration through the orifices were very similar to that of the upstream aerosol except when significant attenuation occurred. (author)

  14. Temporary fire sealing of penetrations on TFTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hondorp, H.L.

    1981-02-01

    The radiation shielding provided for TFTR for D-D and D-T operation will be penetrated by numerous electrical and mechanical services. Eventually, these penetrations will have to be sealed to provide the required fire resistance, tritium sealability, pressure integrity and radiation attenuation. For the initial hydrogen operation, however, fire sealing of the penetrations in the walls and floor is the primary concern. This report provides a discussion of the required and desirable properties of a temporary seal which can be used to seal these penetrations for the hydrogen operation and then subsequently be removed and replaced as required for the D-D and D-T operations. Several candidate designs are discussed and evaluated and recommendations are made for specific applications

  15. Identifying structural damage with ground penetrating radar

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Schoor, Abraham M

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Ground penetrating radar (GPR) and electrical resistance tomography (ERT) surveys were conducted in an urban environment in an attempt to identify the cause of severe structural damage to a historically significant residential property...

  16. Thyroid Emphysema Following Penetrating Neck Trauma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demet Karadağ

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Although traumatic thyroid gland rupture or hemorrhage is usually seen in goitrous glands, injuries of the normal thyroid gland after neck trauma have rarely been described in the literature. We describe a 44-year-old man who presented with thyroid emphysema and subcutaneous emphysema (SCE that occurred after penetrating neck trauma. CT images showed complete resolution of thyroid emphysema and subcutaneous emphysema at follow-up examination. Neck injuries can be life threatening. After penetrating neck traumas, physicians should consider subtle esophageal or tracheal laceration. Thyroid emphysema can occur as the result of penetrating neck trauma. The mechanism of emphysema of the thyroid parenchyma can be explained by the thyroid gland’s presence in a single visceral compartment that encompasses the larynx, trachea and thyroid gland. We describe an unusual case of thyroid emphysema of a normal thyroid gland following a penetrating neck injury.

  17. Kali Linux wireless penetration testing beginner's guide

    CERN Document Server

    Ramachandran, Vivek

    2015-01-01

    If you are a security professional, pentester, or anyone interested in getting to grips with wireless penetration testing, this is the book for you. Some familiarity with Kali Linux and wireless concepts is beneficial.

  18. Penetration testing protecting networks and systems

    CERN Document Server

    Henry, Kevin M

    2012-01-01

    This book is a preparation guide for the CPTE examination, yet is also a general reference for experienced penetration testers, ethical hackers, auditors, security personnel and anyone else involved in the security of an organization's computer systems.

  19. The penetration of aerosols through fine capillaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchell, J.P.; Edwards, R.T.; Ball, M.H.E.

    1989-10-01

    A novel experimental technique has been developed to study the penetration of aerosol particles ranging from about 1 to 15 μm aerodynamic diameter through capillaries varying from 20 to 80 μm bore and from 10 to 50 mm in length. When the driving pressure was 100 kPa, the penetration of the airborne particles was considerably smaller than expected from a simple comparison of particle diameter with the bore of the capillary. Particle size distributions determined after penetration through the capillaries were in almost all cases similar to the particle size distribution of the aerosol at the capillary entrance. This lack of size-selectivity can be explained in terms of the capillary behaving as a conventional suction-based sampler from a near still (calm) air environment. The resulting particle penetration data are important in assessing the potential for the leakage of aerosols through seals in containers used to transport radioactive materials. (author)

  20. Low Force Penetration of Icy Regolith

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantovani, J. G.; Galloway, G. M.; Zacny, K.

    2016-01-01

    A percussive cone penetrometer measures the strength of granular material by using percussion to deliver mechanical energy into the material. A percussive cone penetrometer was used in this study to penetrate a regolith ice mixture by breaking up ice and decompacting the regolith. As compared to a static cone penetrometer, percussion allows low reaction forces to push a penetrometer probe tip more easily into dry regolith in a low gravity environment from a planetary surface rover or a landed spacecraft. A percussive cone penetrates icy regolith at ice concentrations that a static cone cannot penetrate. In this study, the percussive penetrator was able to penetrate material under 65 N of down-force which could not be penetrated using a static cone under full body weight. This paper discusses using a percussive cone penetrometer to discern changes in the concentration of water-ice in a mixture of lunar regolith simulant and ice to a depth of one meter. The rate of penetration was found to be a function of the ice content and was not significantly affected by the down-force. The test results demonstrate that this method may be ideal for a small platform in a reduced gravity environment. However, there are some cases where the system may not be able to penetrate the icy regolith, and there is some risk of the probe tip becoming stuck so that it cannot be retracted. It is also shown that a percussive cone penetrometer could be used to prospect for water ice in regolith at concentrations as high as 8 by weight.

  1. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  2. Campbell penetration depth in Fe-based superconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prommapan, Plegchart

    2011-01-01

    A 'true' critical current density, j c , as opposite to commonly measured relaxed persistent (Bean) current, j B , was extracted from the Campbell penetration depth, λ c (T,H) measured in single crystals of LiFeAs, and optimally electron-doped Ba(Fe 0.954 Ni 0.046 ) 2 As 2 (FeNi122). In LiFeAs, the effective pinning potential is nonparabolic, which follows from the magnetic field - dependent Labusch parameter α. At the equilibrium (upon field - cooling), α(H) is non-monotonic, but it is monotonic at a finite gradient of the vortex density. This behavior leads to a faster magnetic relaxation at the lower fields and provides a natural dynamic explanation for the fishtail (second peak) effect. We also find the evidence for strong pinning at the lower fields.The inferred field dependence of the pinning potential is consistent with the evolution from strong pinning, through collective pinning, and eventually to a disordered vortex lattice. The value of j c (2 K) ≅ 1.22 x 10 6 A/cm 2 provide an upper estimate of the current carrying capability of LiFeAs. Overall, vortex behavior of almost isotropic, fully-gapped LiFeAs is very similar to highly anisotropic d-wave cuprate superconductors, the similarity that requires further studies in order to understand unconventional superconductivity in cuprates and pnictides. In addition to LiFeAs, we also report the magnetic penetration depth in BaFe 2 As 2 based superconductors including irradiation of FeNi122. In unirradiated FeNi122, the maximum critical current value is, j c (2K) ≅ 3.3 x 10 6 A/cm 2 . The magnetic-dependent feature was observed near the transition temperature in FeTe 0.53 Se 0.47 and irradiated FeNi122. Because of this feature, further studies are required in order to properly calibrate the Campbell penetration depth. Finally, we detected the crossing between the magnetic penetration depth and London penetration depth in optimally hold-doped Ba 0.6 K 0.4 Fe 2 As 2 (BaK122) and isovalent doped BaFe 2 (As 0

  3. In vitro penetration of bleaching agents into the pulp chamber

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benetti, Ana Raquel; Valera, M C; Mancini, M N G

    2004-01-01

    To investigate pulp chamber penetration of bleaching agents in teeth following restorative procedures.......To investigate pulp chamber penetration of bleaching agents in teeth following restorative procedures....

  4. Probability theory a foundational course

    CERN Document Server

    Pakshirajan, R P

    2013-01-01

    This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.

  5. VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

  6. Approximation methods in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Čekanavičius, Vydas

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.

  7. Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

  8. Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)

    2002-01-01

    When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

  9. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2011-01-01

    A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d

  10. Statistical probability tables CALENDF program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribon, P.

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of the probability tables is: - to obtain dense data representation - to calculate integrals by quadratures. They are mainly used in the USA for calculations by Monte Carlo and in the USSR and Europe for self-shielding calculations by the sub-group method. The moment probability tables, in addition to providing a more substantial mathematical basis and calculation methods, are adapted for condensation and mixture calculations, which are the crucial operations for reactor physics specialists. However, their extension is limited by the statistical hypothesis they imply. Efforts are being made to remove this obstacle, at the cost, it must be said, of greater complexity

  11. Probability, statistics, and queueing theory

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Arnold O

    1990-01-01

    This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit

  12. Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...... in these respects. Interviews with Nick Bingham, Luc Bovens, Terrence L. Fine, Haim Gaifman, Donald Gillies, James Hawthorne, Carl Hoefer, James M. Joyce, Joseph B. Kadane Isaac Levi, D.H. Mellor, Patrick Suppes, Jan von Plato, Carl Wagner, Sandy Zabell...

  13. A review of penetration mechanisms and dynamic properties of tungsten and depleted uranium penetrators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrew, S.P.; Caligiuri, R.D.; Eiselstein, L.E.

    1991-01-01

    Over the last decade, depleted uranium (DU) and tungsten alloys have been the materials of choice for kinetic energy penetrators. However, despite improvements in mechanical properties in recent years, the penetration performance of tungsten still lags behind that of DU. One possible reason is the difference in deformation mechanisms- DU alloys tend to shear band as they penetrate the target material, whereas tungsten penetrators tend to mushroom. As a first step to determining whether shear banding is truly the reason for superior DU performance, a review and summary of the available information was performed. This paper presents a state-of-the-art review of the formulation, high strain- rate properties, and penetration phenomena of penetrators manufactured from both tungsten and DU alloys. Specifically, the effects of composition, processing, and heat treatment on mechanical properties and penetration mechanisms of these alloys are discussed. Penetration data and models for penetration mechanisms (in particular shear banding) are also presented, as well as the applicability of these models and their salient features

  14. Rapid penetration into granular media visualizing the fundamental physics of rapid earth penetration

    CERN Document Server

    Iskander, Magued

    2015-01-01

    Rapid Penetration into Granular Media: Visualizing the Fundamental Physics of Rapid Earth Penetration introduces readers to the variety of methods and techniques used to visualize, observe, and model the rapid penetration of natural and man-made projectiles into earth materials. It provides seasoned practitioners with a standard reference that showcases the topic's most recent developments in research and application. The text compiles the findings of new research developments on the subject, outlines the fundamental physics of rapid penetration into granular media, and assembles a com

  15. Autoradiographic study of the penetration of radiolabelled dextrans and inulin through non-keratinized oral mucosa in vitro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfano, M C; Chasens, A I; Masi, C W [Block Periodontal Research Laboratories, Department of Periodontics and Oral Medicine, Fairleigh Dickinson University, School of Dentistry, Hackensack, New Jersey, U.S.A.

    1977-01-01

    Although a well known barrier effect against the penetration of macromolecules exists at the basement membrane region of epithelial tissues, recent reports suggest that the penetration of smaller molecules may be impeded by this region. Considering the probable importance of the permeability of gingival crevicular tissues in the etiology of inflammatory periodontal disease, the present study was designed to evaluate the barrier function of the basement membrane region of non-keratinized oral mucosal epithelium to a series of radiolabelled penetrating molecules of increasing molecular weight. Tritium labeled inulin (Mw 5,000), dextran 20 (Mw 20,000) and dextran 70 (Mw 70,000) were used as penetrating molecules, and autoradiographic tracer techniques were used to evaluate the barrier function. The study was conducted in vitro to eliminate vascular ''wash-out'' effects and to facilitate study of penetration across the basement membrane region in both directions. The results indicated that although the penetration of inulin and dextran 70 was impeded by the basement membrane region, the penetration of dextran 20 was not affected. Therefore, the barrier function of the basement membrane region is not solely dependent on the molecular weight of the penetration molecule. Mechanisms to account for the findings are described and the significance to periodontal disease is discussed.

  16. Autoradiographic study of the penetration of radiolabelled dextrans and inulin through non-keratinized oral mucosa in vitro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfano, M.C.; Chasens, A.I.; Masi, C.W.

    1977-01-01

    Although a well known barrier effect against the penetration of macromolecules exists at the basement membrane region of epithelial tissues, recent reports suggest that the penetration of smaller molecules may be impeded by this region. Considering the probable importance of the permeability of gingival crevicular tissues in the etiology of inflammatory periodontal disease, the present study was designed to evaluate the barrier function of the basement membrane region of non-keratinized oral mucosal epithelium to a series of radiolabelled penetrating molecules of increasing molecular weight. Tritium labeled inulin (Mw 5,000), dextran 20 (Mw 20,000) and dextran 70 (Mw 70,000) were used as penetrating molecules, and autoradiographic tracer techniques were used to evaluate the barrier function. The study was conducted in vitro to eliminate vascular ''wash-out'' effects and to facilitate study of penetration across the basement membrane region in both directions. The results indicated that although the penetration of inulin and dextran 70 was impeded by the basement membrane region, the penetration of dextran 20 was not affected. Therefore, the barrier function of the basement membrane region is not solely dependent on the molecular weight of the penetration molecule. Mechanisms to account for the findings are described and the significance to periodontal disease is discussed. (author)

  17. Sensitivity analysis of smart grids reliability due to indirect cyber-power interdependencies under various DG technologies, DG penetrations, and operation times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashemi-Dezaki, Hamed; Agah, Seyed Mohammad Mousavi; Askarian-Abyaneh, Hossein; Haeri-Khiavi, Homayoun

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel risk assessment method considering the ICPIs is proposed. • The protection and monitoring system as the ICPIs applications are studied. • The uncertainty of results is analyzed in addition to expected average results. • ICPIs impacts due to DG penetrations under various DG technologies are analyzed. • The well-being criteria have been provided in addition to reliability indices. - Abstract: The cyber failures such as failures in protection and monitoring systems will not stop the operation or change the behavior of the power system instantly but will adversely affect the performance of the power system against the potential failure. Such indirect cyber-power interdependencies (ICPIs) may either intensify the probability of future failures or postpone the repercussion to the present failure of the power elements. The much less effort has been devoted in literature to investigate the ICPIs impacts, particularly in stochastic simulating space. In this paper, a novel stochastic-based reliability evaluation method which considers the ICPIs impacts under various uncertain parameters is proposed. The consideration of uncertainty regarding the renewable distributed generation (DG) units, consumption patterns, power and cyber elements, and ICPIs is one of the most important contributions of the proposed method. Further, a novel stochastic-based state upgrading is introduced to concern the ICPIs of protection and monitoring systems. By using the proposed state upgrading methodology, it is possible to evaluate the reliability of smart grid based on ICPIs by using conventional reliability evaluation methods. The proposed risk assessment methodology is applied to an actual distribution grid. The several sensitivity studies are performed to gain insight into how the penetration level of DG units under various DG technology scenarios can affect the ICPIs impacts on the risk level of smart grid. The test results show that regardless of the DG

  18. Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

    2015-10-01

    The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

  19. Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, Paul E.

    This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…

  20. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  1. GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Mike

    2012-01-01

    It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…

  2. Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slunga, R.

    1979-03-01

    A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)

  3. DECOFF Probabilities of Failed Operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas

    2015-01-01

    A statistical procedure of estimation of Probabilities of Failed Operations is described and exemplified using ECMWF weather forecasts and SIMO output from Rotor Lift test case models. Also safety factor influence is investigated. DECOFF statistical method is benchmarked against standard Alpha-factor...

  4. Risk estimation using probability machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  5. Probability and statistics: A reminder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clement, B.

    2013-01-01

    The main purpose of these lectures is to provide the reader with the tools needed to data analysis in the framework of physics experiments. Basic concepts are introduced together with examples of application in experimental physics. The lecture is divided into two parts: probability and statistics. It is build on the introduction from 'data analysis in experimental sciences' given in [1]. (authors)

  6. Nash equilibrium with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groes, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1998-01-01

    We generalize the concept of Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies for strategic form games to allow for ambiguity in the players' expectations. In contrast to other contributions, we model ambiguity by means of so-called lower probability measures or belief functions, which makes it possible...

  7. On probability-possibility transformations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad

    1992-01-01

    Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.

  8. Pumped storage in systems with very high wind penetration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuohy, A.; O'Malley, M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the operation of the Irish power system with very high levels of wind energy, with and without pumped storage. A unit commitment model which accounts for the uncertainty in wind power is used. It is shown that as wind penetration increases, the optimal operation of storage depends on wind output as well as load. The main benefit from storage is shown to be a decrease in wind curtailment. The economics of the system are examined to find the level at which storage justifies its capital costs and inefficiencies. It is shown that the uncertainty of wind makes the option of storage more attractive. The size of the energy store has an impact on results. At lower levels of installed wind (up to approximately 50% of energy from wind in Ireland), the reduction in curtailment is insufficient to justify building storage. At greater levels of wind, storage reduces curtailment sufficiently to justify the additional capital costs. It can be seen that if storage replaces OCGTs in the plant mix instead of CCGTs, then the level at which it justifies itself is lower. Storage increases the level of carbon emissions at wind penetration below 60%. - Research highlights: → Examines operation of pumped storage unit in a system with levels of wind from 34%-68% of energy. → High capital cost of storage is not justified until system has high (approx. 45%) wind penetration. → Results are driven by the amount of wind curtailment avoided and plant mix of system. → Other flexible options (e.g. interconnection) offer many of the same benefits as storage.

  9. Deformation analysis of shallow penetration in clay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagaseta, C.; Whittle, A. J.; Santagata, M.

    1997-10-01

    A new method of analysis is described for estimating the deformations and strains caused by shallow undrained penetration of piles and caissons in clay. The formulation combines previous analyses for steady, deep penetration, with methods used to compute soil deformations due to near-surface ground loss, and is referred to as the Shallow Strain Path Method (SSPM). Complete analytical solutions for the velocity and strain rates are given for a planar wall, an axisymmetric, closed-ended pile and unplugged, open-ended pile geometries. In these examples, the analyses consider a single source penetrating through the soil at a constant rate, generating a family of penetrometers with rounded tips, referred to as simple wall, pile and tube geometries. Soil deformations and strains are obtained by integrating the velocity and strain rates along the particle paths.The transition from shallow to deep penetration is analysed in detail. Shallow penetration causes heave at the ground surface, while settlements occur only in a thin veneer of material adjacent to the shaft and in a bulb-shaped region around the tip. The size of this region increases with the embedment depth. Deformations inside an open-ended pile/caisson are affected significantly by details of the simple tube wall geometry.

  10. Photovoltaic array with minimally penetrating rooftop support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenox, Carl J.S.

    2012-10-23

    A photovoltaic array including a plurality of photovoltaic assemblies and a plurality of mounting units. The mounting units each include an elongate rail and a plurality of leg assemblies. The rail is sized and configured to maintain a portion of at least two of the photovoltaic assemblies, with the leg assemblies extending from the rail in a spaced-apart fashion and terminating in a foot for placement against a rooftop structure for minimally penetration installation. Further, at least one of the leg assemblies can include a retractable leg. When the photovoltaic array is installed to a rooftop structure including a membrane intermittently secured to a rooftop deck, the retractable leg accommodates upward billowing of the membrane under windy conditions.

  11. The Current Status of the Japanese Penetrator Mission: LUNAR-A

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, S.; Shiraishi, H.; Fujimura, A.; Hayakawa, H.

    communication link, between the penetrator and the orbiting spacecraft, and the improvement of data processing unit onboard penetrator should be made. And also, in compliance with the recommendation by the external review board, we have made a decision to suspend a development of LUNAR-A spacecraft and to concentrate on the completion of the penetrator technology. To solve the above technological issues, it was estimated to take a couple of years. In this paper, we present the current status of development and some results of the impact tests for component level models and for the full-size integrated model, which both are modified and re-designed.

  12. THE CALCULATION OF FAST-NEUTRON ATTENUATION PROBABILITIES THROUGH A NINE- INCH POLYETHYLENE SLAB AND COMPARISON WITH EXPERIMENTAL DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mooney, L. G.

    1963-06-15

    Calculations of neutron penetration probabilities were performed to evaluate the Monte Carlo Multilayer Slab Penetration Procedure. A 9-in. polyethylene alab was chosen for the calculations and results were compared with experimental data. The calculated and measured dose rates agree within 20% for all exit polar angles. The calculations indicate that incident neutrons with energies less than 2.5 Mev do not contribute significantly to the transmitted dose rate. (auth)

  13. Two methodologies for physical penetration testing using social engineering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dimkov, T.; van Cleeff, A.; Pieters, Wolter; Hartel, Pieter H.

    2010-01-01

    Penetration tests on IT systems are sometimes coupled with physical penetration tests and social engineering. In physical penetration tests where social engineering is allowed, the penetration tester directly interacts with the employees. These interactions are usually based on deception and if not

  14. Large deviations and idempotent probability

    CERN Document Server

    Puhalskii, Anatolii

    2001-01-01

    In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...

  15. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  16. Probability matching and strategy availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Derek J; James, Greta

    2010-09-01

    Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought to their attention, more participants subsequently engage in maximizing. Third, matchers are more likely than maximizers to base decisions in other tasks on their initial intuitions, suggesting that they are more inclined to use a choice strategy that comes to mind quickly. These results indicate that a substantial subset of probability matchers are victims of "underthinking" rather than "overthinking": They fail to engage in sufficient deliberation to generate a superior alternative to the matching strategy that comes so readily to mind.

  17. Probability as a Physical Motive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Martin

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent theoretical progress in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, linking thephysical principle of Maximum Entropy Production (“MEP” to the information-theoretical“MaxEnt” principle of scientific inference, together with conjectures from theoreticalphysics that there may be no fundamental causal laws but only probabilities for physicalprocesses, and from evolutionary theory that biological systems expand “the adjacentpossible” as rapidly as possible, all lend credence to the proposition that probability shouldbe recognized as a fundamental physical motive. It is further proposed that spatial order andtemporal order are two aspects of the same thing, and that this is the essence of the secondlaw of thermodynamics.

  18. Opportunities for high wind energy penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tande, J.O.; Hansen, J.C.

    1997-01-01

    Wind power is today a mature technology, which at windy locations, is economically competitive to conventional power generation technologies. This and growing global environmental concerns have led governments to encourage and plan for wind energy development, a typical aim being 10% of electricity...... consumption. The successful operation of the three major power systems of Cape Verde, with a total wind energy penetration of about 15% since December 1994, demonstrates that power systems can be operated with high penetration of wind energy by adding simple control and monitoring systems only. Thorough...... analyses conclude that expanding to even above 15% wind energy penetration in the Cape Verde power systems is economical. Worldwide, numerous locations with favorable wind conditions and power systems similar to the Capeverdean provide good opportunities for installing wind farms and achieving high wind...

  19. WAPTT - Web Application Penetration Testing Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DURIC, Z.

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Web applications vulnerabilities allow attackers to perform malicious actions that range from gaining unauthorized account access to obtaining sensitive data. The number of reported web application vulnerabilities in last decade is increasing dramatically. The most of vulnerabilities result from improper input validation and sanitization. The most important of these vulnerabilities based on improper input validation and sanitization are: SQL injection (SQLI, Cross-Site Scripting (XSS and Buffer Overflow (BOF. In order to address these vulnerabilities we designed and developed the WAPTT (Web Application Penetration Testing Tool tool - web application penetration testing tool. Unlike other web application penetration testing tools, this tool is modular, and can be easily extended by end-user. In order to improve efficiency of SQLI vulnerability detection, WAPTT uses an efficient algorithm for page similarity detection. The proposed tool showed promising results as compared to six well-known web application scanners in detecting various web application vulnerabilities.

  20. Penetrating power of resonant electromagnetic induction imaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Guilizzoni

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The possibility of revealing the presence and identifying the nature of conductive targets is of central interest in many fields, including security, medicine, industry, archaeology and geophysics. In many applications, these targets are shielded by external materials and thus cannot be directly accessed. Hence, interrogation techniques are required that allow penetration through the shielding materials, in order for the target to be identified. Electromagnetic interrogation techniques represent a powerful solution to this challenge, as they enable penetration through conductive shields. In this work, we demonstrate the power of resonant electromagnetic induction imaging to penetrate through metallic shields (1.5-mm-thick and image targets (having conductivities σ ranging from 0.54 to 59.77 MSm−1 concealed behind them.

  1. Wireless Network Penetration Testing and Security Auditing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Shao-Long

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available IEEE802.11 wireless wireless networks have security issues that are vulnerable to a variety of attacks. Due to using radio to transport data, attackers can bypass firewalls, sniff sensitive information, intercept packets and send malicious packets. Security auditing and penetration testing is expected to ensure wireless networks security. The contributions of this work are analyzed the vulnerability and types of attacks pertaining to IEEE 802.11 WLAN, performed well known attacks in a laboratory environment to conduct penetration tests to confirm whether our wireless network is hackable or not. WAIDPS is configured as auditing tool to view wireless attacks, such as WEP/WPA/WPA2 cracking, rouge access points, denial of service attack. WAIDPS is designed to detect wireless intrusion with additional features. Penetration testing and auditing will mitigate the risk and threatening to protect WALN.

  2. Penetrating chest injury: A miraculous life salvage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh B Dalavi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An unusual penetrating chest injury was caused by high velocity road traffic accident. An 18-year-old had a four wheeler accident and was brought in emergency department with a ′bamboo′ stick on the left side chest exiting through back. After the stabilization of vital parameters, an inter-costal tube drainage was done on the left side. Except the minor brochopleural fistula which healed by 10 th day, his recovery was uneventful. The outcome was consistent with current aggressive management of penetrating chest injuries. Management of penetrating chest injury involving pulmonary trauma is based on three principles. One is stabilization of hemodynamics of patient with proper clinical evaluation. Second, a mere intercostal tube drainage sufficient for majority of the cases. Third, post-operative active as well as passive physiotherapy is necessary for speedy recovery.

  3. Analytical and numerical studies of creation probabilities of hierarchical trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.S. Borysov

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We consider the creation conditions of diverse hierarchical trees both analytically and numerically. A connection between the probabilities to create hierarchical levels and the probability to associate these levels into a united structure is studied. We argue that a consistent probabilistic picture requires the use of deformed algebra. Our consideration is based on the study of the main types of hierarchical trees, among which both regular and degenerate ones are studied analytically, while the creation probabilities of Fibonacci, scale-free and arbitrary trees are determined numerically.

  4. Logic, Probability, and Human Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. The nature of deductive reasoning To be rational is to be able to make deductions...3–6] and they underlie mathematics, science, and tech- nology [7–10]. Plato claimed that emotions upset reason- ing. However, individuals in the grip...fundamental to human rationality . So, if counterexamples to its principal predictions occur, the theory will at least explain its own refutation

  5. Probability Measures on Groups IX

    CERN Document Server

    1989-01-01

    The latest in this series of Oberwolfach conferences focussed on the interplay between structural probability theory and various other areas of pure and applied mathematics such as Tauberian theory, infinite-dimensional rotation groups, central limit theorems, harmonizable processes, and spherical data. Thus it was attended by mathematicians whose research interests range from number theory to quantum physics in conjunction with structural properties of probabilistic phenomena. This volume contains 5 survey articles submitted on special invitation and 25 original research papers.

  6. Probability matching and strategy availability

    OpenAIRE

    J. Koehler, Derek; Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta

    2010-01-01

    Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought...

  7. Development Of The Nuclear Optical Penetration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, K.; Koike, K.; Imada, Y.

    1984-10-01

    We have developed the nuclear optical penetration to be incorporated in the wall penetration of the shell to introduce a data transmission system using optical fibers into a nuclear power plant with a pressurized water reactor. Radiation-induced coloration in optical glass seriously affects transmission characteristics of optical fibers, whereas it has been revealed that the pure-silica core optical fiber without any dopant in the core has wide applicability in radiation fields thanks to its very low radiation-induced attenuation. The wall penetration of the shell should have airtightness and resistivity to heat, vibration, and pressure, let alone radiation, excellent enough to be invariable in data transmission efficiency even when subjected to severe environmental tests. The sealing modules of this newly developed nuclear optical penetration are hermetically sealed. The gap between the optical fiber rod (100 pm in core diameter and 5 mm in rod diameter) and stainless steel tube is sealed with lamingted glass layer. As the result of He gas leakage test, high airtightness of less than 10 cc/sec was achieved. No thermal deformation of the core was caused by sealing with laminated glass layer, nor was observed transmission loss. Then the sealiing modules were subjected to the irradiation test using 60 Co gamma ray exposure of 2 x 10 rads. Though silica glass layer supporting the fiber rod and sealing glass portion turned blackish purple, transparency of the fiber was not affected. Only less than 0.5 dB of connecting loss was observed at the connecting point with the optical fiber cable. The sealing modules were also found to have resistivity to vibration and pressure as excellent as that of existing nuclear electric penetrations. We expect the nuclear optical fiber penetration will be much effective in improving reliability of data transmission systems using optical fibers in radiation fields.

  8. HMO penetration: has it hurt public hospitals?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, J P; Grazier, K L

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the extent to which health maintenance organization (HMO) penetration within the public hospitals' market area affects the financial performance and viability of these institutions, relative to private hospitals. Hospital- and market-specific measures are examined in a fully interacted model of over 2,300 hospitals in 321 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in 1995. Although hospitals located in markets with higher HMO penetration have lower financial performance as reflected in revenues, expenses and operating margin, public hospitals are not more disadvantaged than other hospitals by managed care.

  9. Operational experience of extreme wind penetrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Estanqueiro, Ana [INETI/LNEG - National Laboratory for Energy and Geology, Lisbon (Portugal); Mateus, Carlos B. [Instituto de Meteorologia, Lisboa (Portugal); Pestana, Rui [Redes Energeticas Nacionais (REN), Lisboa (Portugal)

    2010-07-01

    This paper reports the operational experience from the Portuguese Power System during the 2009/2010 winter months when record wind penerations were observed: the instantaneous wind power penetration peaked at 70% of consumption during no-load periods and the wind energy accounted for more than 50% of the energy consumed for a large period. The regulation measures taken by the TSO are presented in the paper, together with the additional reserves operated for added system security. Information on the overall power system behavior under such extreme long-term wind power penetrations will also be addressed. (org.)

  10. Hybrid treatment of penetrating aortic ulcer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lara, Juan Antonio Herrero; Martins-Romeo, Daniela de Araujo; Escudero, Carlos Caparros; Falcon, Maria del Carmen Prieto; Batista, Vinicius Bianchi; Vazquez, Rosa Maria Lepe

    2015-01-01

    Penetrating atherosclerotic aortic ulcer is a rare entity with poor prognosis in the setting of acute aortic syndrome. In the literature, cases like the present one, located in the aortic arch, starting with chest pain and evolving with dysphonia, are even rarer. The present report emphasizes the role played by computed tomography in the diagnosis of penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer as well as in the differentiation of this condition from other acute aortic syndromes. Additionally, the authors describe a new therapeutic approach represented by a hybrid endovascular surgical procedure for treatment of the disease. (author)

  11. Hybrid treatment of penetrating aortic ulcer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lara, Juan Antonio Herrero; Martins-Romeo, Daniela de Araujo; Escudero, Carlos Caparros; Falcon, Maria del Carmen Prieto; Batista, Vinicius Bianchi, E-mail: jaherrero5@hotmail.com [Unidade de Gestao Clinica (UGC) de Diagnostico por Imagem - Hosppital Universitario Virgen Macarena, Sevilha (Spain); Vazquez, Rosa Maria Lepe [Unit of Radiodiagnosis - Hospital Nuestra Senora de la Merced, Osuna, Sevilha (Spain)

    2015-05-15

    Penetrating atherosclerotic aortic ulcer is a rare entity with poor prognosis in the setting of acute aortic syndrome. In the literature, cases like the present one, located in the aortic arch, starting with chest pain and evolving with dysphonia, are even rarer. The present report emphasizes the role played by computed tomography in the diagnosis of penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer as well as in the differentiation of this condition from other acute aortic syndromes. Additionally, the authors describe a new therapeutic approach represented by a hybrid endovascular surgical procedure for treatment of the disease. (author)

  12. Roentgenologic image of penetrating duodenal bulb ulcer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strunin, A.E.

    1986-01-01

    When studying a series of aimed roentgenograms in patients with peptic ulcer a gas bubble of irregular spherical configuration or two-layer niche were determined near the bulb medial contour. Gas bubble was from 0.5-0.7 to 3.5 cm in diameter. In such cases penetrating ulcers were determined in operations. Along with other signs gas bubble symptom, sometimes two-layer signs may be used for timely and exact roentgenological diagnosis of penetrating duodenal bulb ulcer in peptic ulcer disease

  13. Fractal measures in a deep penetration problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murthy, K.P.N.; Indira, R.; John, T.M.

    1993-01-01

    In the Monte Carlo simulation of a deep penetration problem the parameter, say b in the importance function must be assigned a value b' such that variance is minimum. If b b' the sample mean is still not reliable; but the sample fluctuations would be small and misleading, though the actual fluctuations are quite large. This is because the distribution of transmission has a tail which becomes prominent when b > b'. Considering a model deep penetration problem, and employing exact enumeration techniques, it is shown that in the limit of large biasing the long tailed distribution to the transmission is multifractal. (author). 5 refs., 3 figs

  14. Generic Penetration of the SSRI Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cascade, Elisa F; Kalali, Amir H

    2008-04-01

    In this article, we investigate the penetration of generic selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) in the US market and the implications for patient out-of-pocket expense. The data suggest that generic penetration into the SSRI market has grown from approximately nine percent in 2000, the year that the patent for Prozac((R)) expired, to 72 percent in 2007. For December, 2007, the difference in patient out-of-pocket expense for branded vs. generic agents was, on average, $55.42 for patients paying by cash (i.e., they had no prescription drug insurance) and $22.39 for patients with insurance coverage.

  15. Penetrating ocular trauma from trampoline spring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spokes, David; Siddiqui, Salina; Vize, Colin

    2010-02-01

    The case is presented of a 12-year old boy who sustained severe penetrating ocular trauma while playing on a domestic trampoline. A main spring broke under tension and the hook had struck the eye at high velocity and penetrated the sclera. Primary repair was undertaken but on review it became apparent the eye could not be salvaged. Evisceration was carried out and an orbital implant was placed. Post-operative cosmesis is acceptable. This type of injury has not been reported before. Adult supervision of children on trampolines is recommended to minimise the chance of serious injury.

  16. A study on the particle penetration in RMS Right Single Quotation Marks particle transport system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, S. M.; Oh, S. H.; Choi, C. R.

    2014-01-01

    In nuclear facilities, a radiation monitoring system (RMS) monitors the exhaust gas containing the radioactive material. Samples of exhaust gas are collected in the downstream region of air cleaning units (ACUs) in order to examine radioactive materials. It is possible to predict an amount of radioactive material by analyzing the corrected samples. Representation of the collected samples should be assured in order to accurately sense and measure of radioactive materials. The radius of curvature is mainly 5 times of tube diameter. Sometimes, a booster fan is additionally added to enhance particle penetration rate... In this study, particle penetrations are calculated to evaluate particle penetration rate with various design parameters (tube lengths, tube declined angles, radius of curvatures, etc). The particle penetration rates have been calculated for several elements in the particle transport system. In general, the horizontal length of tube and the number of bending tube have a big impact on the penetration rate in the particle transport system. If the sampling location is far from the radiation monitoring system, additional installation of booster fans could be considered in case of large diameter tubes, but is not recommended in case of small diameter tube. In order to enhance particle penetration rate, the following works are recommended by priority. 1) to reduce the interval between sampling location and radiation monitoring system 2) to reduce the number of the bending tube

  17. Development of a Remotely-operated Visual Inspection System for Reactor Vessel Bottommounted Instrument Penetrations of KSNP and Lessons Learned

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Kyungmin; Choi, Youngsu; Lee, Sunguk; Seo, Yongchil; Kang, Jong Gyu; Kim, Seungho; Jung, Seungho

    2006-01-01

    In April 2003, South Texas Project Unit 1 made a surprising discovery of boron acid leakage from two nozzles from a bare-metal examination of the reactor vessel bottom-mounted instrument penetrations during a routine refueling outage. A small powdery substance about 150mg was found on the outside of two instrument guide penetration nozzles on the bottom of the reactor. The primary coolant water of pressurized water reactors has caused cracking in penetrations with Alloy 600 through a process called primary water stress corrosion cracking. In South Korea, it is required to conduct 100% visual inspection of the outside of instrument guide penetration nozzles on the bottom of PWRs to confirm the integrity of reactor vessel. This paper describes the remotely-operated visual inspection systems for reactor vessel bottom-mounted instrument penetrations dispatched two times to Youngkwang NPPs and discusses the lessons learned

  18. Short communication: cheminformatics analysis to identify predictors of antiviral drug penetration into the female genital tract.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Corbin G; Sedykh, Alexander; Nicol, Melanie R; Muratov, Eugene; Fourches, Denis; Tropsha, Alexander; Kashuba, Angela D M

    2014-11-01

    The exposure of oral antiretroviral (ARV) drugs in the female genital tract (FGT) is variable and almost unpredictable. Identifying an efficient method to find compounds with high tissue penetration would streamline the development of regimens for both HIV preexposure prophylaxis and viral reservoir targeting. Here we describe the cheminformatics investigation of diverse drugs with known FGT penetration using cluster analysis and quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) modeling. A literature search over the 1950-2012 period identified 58 compounds (including 21 ARVs and representing 13 drug classes) associated with their actual concentration data for cervical or vaginal tissue, or cervicovaginal fluid. Cluster analysis revealed significant trends in the penetrative ability for certain chemotypes. QSAR models to predict genital tract concentrations normalized to blood plasma concentrations were developed with two machine learning techniques utilizing drugs' molecular descriptors and pharmacokinetic parameters as inputs. The QSAR model with the highest predictive accuracy had R(2)test=0.47. High volume of distribution, high MRP1 substrate probability, and low MRP4 substrate probability were associated with FGT concentrations ≥1.5-fold plasma concentrations. However, due to the limited FGT data available, prediction performances of all models were low. Despite this limitation, we were able to support our findings by correctly predicting the penetration class of rilpivirine and dolutegravir. With more data to enrich the models, we believe these methods could potentially enhance the current approach of clinical testing.

  19. Tumor induction and hair follicle damage for different electron penetrations in rat skin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burns, F.J.; Sinclair, I.P.; Albert, R.E.; Vanderlaan, M.

    1976-01-01

    The penetration and dose of an electron beam were varied in an attempt to locate the depth in growing-phase rat skin where irradiation was most effective in inducing tumors and morphological damage to the hair follicles. The hair was plucked to initiate the growing phase of the hair cycle, and 12 days later the dorsal skin was irradiated with electrons penetrating 0.5, 1.0, or 2.0 mm at doses from 500 to 4000 rad. Differences in the curves of tumor incidence as a function of dose for different penetrations were best resolved by plotting the results against the 0.4 mm dose, while comparable curves for destruction of the follicles were best resolved by the 0.8 mm dose. Since 0.8 mm corresponded approximately to the depth of the follicles, these results indicated that the target tissues for follicular damage and tumor induction were separated in depth and that the target for tumor induction was probably located in the region above or near the midpoint of the follicles. When the radiation penetrated sufficiently to reach the entire follicle, the number of tumors produced was not significantly greater than the number observed previously in resting-phase skin, and it was inferred that the additional size and greater mitotic activity of the growing-phase follicles at the time of irradiation did not increase the probability of tumor induction

  20. Effect of egg washing and correlation between cuticle and egg penetration by various Salmonella strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gole, Vaibhav C; Roberts, Juliet R; Sexton, Margaret; May, Damian; Kiermeier, Andreas; Chousalkar, Kapil K

    2014-07-16

    In Australia, Europe and the United States, eggs and egg products are frequently associated with Salmonella food poisoning outbreaks. Many of the egg-associated Salmonella outbreaks have been due to the products such as mayonnaise, ice-cream and cold desserts which are eaten without cooking following the addition of raw egg. The ability of four Salmonella isolates (one each of S. Singapore, S. Adelaide, S. Worthington and S. Livingstone) to penetrate washed and unwashed eggs using whole egg and agar egg penetration methods was investigated in the current study. The results of the agar penetration experiment indicated that all the isolates used in the present study have the capacity to penetrate the eggshell. Eggshell penetration by the S. Worthington isolate was higher but not significant (p=0.06) in washed eggs compared to unwashed eggs. However, for all other isolates (S. Singapore, S. Adelaide and S. Livingstone), there was no significant difference in penetration of washed and unwashed eggs. Statistical analysis indicated that cuticle score was a significant linear predictor of Salmonella eggshell penetration. Whole egg penetration results showed that all of the Salmonella isolates used in the present study were capable of surviving on the eggshell surface after 21days of incubation (at 20°C) following a high dose of inoculation (10(5)CFU/mL). The combined data of all isolates demonstrated that, the survival rate of Salmonella on eggshells (inoculated with 10(5)CFU/mL) was significantly higher (p=0.002) at 20°C as compared to 37°C. S. Singapore, S. Worthington, and S. Livingstone were not detected in egg internal contents whereas S. Adelaide was detected in one egg's internal contents. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. NRC Information No. 88-04, Supplement 1: Inadequate qualification and documentation of fire barrier penetration seals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossi, C.E.

    1992-01-01

    Since August 9, 1979, Diablo Canyon has experienced four fires in which the penetration seal material ignited and burned. On March 25, 1986, Toledo Edison reported that the silicone foam sealant in a fire barrier penetration in the main steam line room of Davis-Besse appeared to have baked and pulled away from the pipe. This penetration was filled with low-density silicone foam, which is rated for a maximum temperature of 425 F. The main steam lines normally operate near 600 F. The licensee's corrective actions were to stuff ceramic fiber (Kaowool) into the seal for increased fire resistance and to expand the existing fire watch. The silicone foam seal material in the diesel generator exhaust pipe penetrations at Diablo Canyon was used as replacement material for the combustible foam plastic-type seals, which were involved in the 1975 fire at the Browns Ferry nuclear power plant. In addition to diesel generator exhaust pipe penetrations, some main steamline penetrations may be sealed with this material. The material is apparently designed to withstand maximum ambient temperatures of 400 F. and temporary exposure to 500 F., but not long-term exposure to higher temperatures. Although the measurement at Diablo Canyon in 1982 indicated a pipe temperature of about 600 F., average pipe temperatures are probably much higher. The licensee for Diablo Canyon determined that only six penetrations (all associated with diesel generator exhaust pipes) potentially exposed the silicone foam penetration seal material to high temperatures. For these penetration openings, the licensee plans to install a penetration seal material designed to withstand long-term exposure to high temperatures

  2. [Biometric bases: basic concepts of probability calculation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinya, E

    1998-04-26

    The author gives or outline of the basic concepts of probability theory. The bases of the event algebra, definition of the probability, the classical probability model and the random variable are presented.

  3. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  4. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes.   Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area.  The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and

  5. Probability, statistics, and computational science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.

  6. Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.

    2006-01-01

    Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values

  7. Tree root mapping with ground penetrating radar

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Schoor, Abraham M

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the application of ground penetrating radar (GPR) for the mapping of near surface tree roots is demonstrated. GPR enables tree roots to be mapped in a non-destructive and cost-effective manner and is therefore a useful prospecting...

  8. Penetration and haptenation of p-phenylenediamine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pot, Laura M.; Scheitza, Simone M.; Coenraads, Pieter-Jan; Bloemeke, Brunhilde; Blomeke, B.

    Although p-phenylenediamine (PPD) has been recognized as an extreme sensitizer for many years, the exact mechanism of sensitization has not been elucidated yet. Penetration and the ability to bind to proteins are the first two hurdles that an allergen has to overcome to be able to sensitize. This

  9. Mechanical behaviour of pressure vessel head penetrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faidy, C.; Ternon, F.; Vagner, J.; Vaindirlis, M.

    1994-01-01

    After leaks on Bugey 3 penetrations EdF and Framatome have started a study on the stress corrosion phenomenon of Inconel 600. In this paper, limited to the mechanical aspect, we present an estimation of in service stresses, the experimental program on mockup for visualize the surface stress and the noxiousness of potential cracks. 5 figs., 6 tabs., 5 refs

  10. Standard Penetration Test and Relative Density

    Science.gov (United States)

    1971-02-01

    Se OPSeS Debido a que el agua subterranea granclemente influve la resistencia a suelo, se establecio una relacion empirica entre el nurmero de golpes...de laboratorio ejecutados con un penetr6metro est’tico pequeno. INTRODUCTION One of the main problems encountered in subsoil e’xploration is in situ

  11. Penetration of electronic beams in ionizing media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martiarena, M.L.; Zanete, D.H.; Garibotti, C.R.

    1988-01-01

    It is studied the penetration of an electron beam in an ionizable medium by means of a generalized kinetic equation. This equation is related to elastic collisions, processes of creation and destruction of particles. By integrating numerically the transport equation, it can be evaluated the relative effects of all the processes involved in the evolution of the system. (A.C.A.S.) [pt

  12. Penetration of amalgam constituents into dentine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholtanus, Johannes D.; Ozcan, Mutlu; Huysmans, Marie-Charlotte D. N. J. M.

    Objectives: Amalgam restorations are replaced by adhesively placed composite resin restorations at an increasing rate. After the removal of amalgam dentine often shows marked dark discoloration that is attributed to the penetration of corrosion products from overlying amalgams. it is questioned

  13. Penetration of amalgam constituents into dentine.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholtanus, J.D.; Ozcan, M.; Huysmans, M.C.D.N.J.M.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Amalgam restorations are replaced by adhesively placed composite resin restorations at an increasing rate. After the removal of amalgam dentine often shows marked dark discoloration that is attributed to the penetration of corrosion products from overlying amalgams. It is questioned

  14. Computed tomographic findings in penetrating peptic ulcer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madrazo, B.L.; Halpert, R.D.; Sandler, M.A.; Pearlberg, J.L.

    1984-01-01

    Four cases of peptic ulcer penetrating the head of the pancreas were diagnosed by computed tomography (CT). Findings common to 3 cases included (a) an ulcer crater, (b) a sinus tract, and (c) enlargement of the head of the pancreas. Unlike other modalities, the inherent spatial resolution of CT allows a convenient diagnosis of this important complication of peptic ulcer disease

  15. Reduced penetrance in human inherited disease

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rabah M. Shawky

    2014-01-31

    Jan 31, 2014 ... tant role in cellular senescence, tumorigenesis and in several diseases including type ... between epigenetic DNA modifications and human life span has also been shown .... penetrance mutation that is age dependent especially when compared with the ..... on healthy aging and longevity. Immunity Aging ...

  16. An Experimental Model for Market Penetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caren, William L.

    1987-01-01

    A plan for college market penetration that has been successful in increasing the applicant pool for one institution is outlined and discussed. It includes development of performance objectives, a schedule, a promotional plan, market survey, and promotional activities including alumni, media, and other community resources. (MSE)

  17. STYLET PENETRATION BEHAVIOURS OF FOUR Cicadulina ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    Feeding from phloem cells, overall probing and probe mean (the average time per probe) were higher ... Key Words: Cicadulina spp., electrical penetration graph, MSV, Zea mays .... wire and alligator clip clamped to the stem of the .... á All measures are in minutes except for frequency of probing; - Main effect not significant.

  18. Percutaneous penetration studies for risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sartorelli, Vittorio; Andersen, Helle Raun; Angerer, Jürgen

    2000-01-01

    experiences, literature data and guidelines already in existence. During the meetings of Percutaneous Penetration Subgroup they presented a number of short papers of up to date information on the key issues. The objective was to focus the existing knowledge and the gaps in the knowledge in the field...

  19. Penetration of albendazole sulphoxide into hydatid cysts.

    OpenAIRE

    Morris, D L; Chinnery, J B; Georgiou, G; Stamatakis, G; Golematis, B

    1987-01-01

    The penetration of albendazole sulphoxide, the principal metabolite of albendazole into hydatid cysts (E granulosus) was measured by means of in vitro animal and clinical studies. The drug freely diffuses across the parasitic membranes. Cyst/serum concentrations of 22% were achieved in patients, longer pre-operative therapy produced higher concentrations.

  20. Process and apparatus for examination by penetrating radiations, particularly by tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, S.K.; Erker, J.W.; Carper, R.L.

    1980-01-01

    This invention concerns a process and apparatus for examination by penetrating radiation, particularly by tomography. Specifically, the invention refers to the 'tacography' or computer assisted axial tomography machines and, in particular, the machines working by translational and rotational displacement. Such a translational and rotational scanner is designed so that the radiation source and detectors move by translation on a carriage at non constant speed. Data samples are taken, for unit distances in space and not during unit times [fr

  1. The Basics of Hacking and Penetration Testing Ethical Hacking and Penetration Testing Made Easy

    CERN Document Server

    Engebretson, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    The Basics of Hacking and Penetration Testing serves as an introduction to the steps required to complete a penetration test or perform an ethical hack. You learn how to properly utilize and interpret the results of modern day hacking tools; which are required to complete a penetration test. Tool coverage will include, Backtrack Linux, Google, Whois, Nmap, Nessus, Metasploit, Netcat, Netbus, and more. A simple and clean explanation of how to utilize these tools will allow you  to gain a solid understanding of each of the four phases and prepare them to take on more in-depth texts and topi

  2. Triangulation based inclusion probabilities: a design-unbiased sampling approach

    OpenAIRE

    Fehrmann, Lutz; Gregoire, Timothy; Kleinn, Christoph

    2011-01-01

    A probabilistic sampling approach for design-unbiased estimation of area-related quantitative characteristics of spatially dispersed population units is proposed. The developed field protocol includes a fixed number of 3 units per sampling location and is based on partial triangulations over their natural neighbors to derive the individual inclusion probabilities. The performance of the proposed design is tested in comparison to fixed area sample plots in a simulation with two forest stands. ...

  3. Lectures on probability and statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yost, G.P.

    1984-09-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another

  4. Lower layers in the motor cortex are more effective targets for penetrating microelectrodes in cortical prostheses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parikh, Hirak; Marzullo, Timothy C.; Kipke, Daryl R.

    2009-04-01

    Improving cortical prostheses requires the development of recording neural interfaces that are efficient in terms of providing maximal control information with minimal interface complexity. While the typical approaches have targeted neurons in the motor cortex with multiple penetrating shanks, an alternative approach is to determine an efficient distribution of electrode sites within the layers of the cortex with fewer penetrating shanks. The objective of this study was to compare unit activity in the upper and lower layers of the cortex with respect to movement and direction in order to inform the design of penetrating microelectrodes. Four rats were implanted bilaterally with multi-site single-shank silicon microelectrode arrays in the neck/shoulder region of the motor cortex. We simultaneously recorded unit activity across all layers of the motor cortex while the animal was engaged in a movement direction task. Localization of the electrode array within the different layers of the cortex was determined by histology. We denoted units from layers 2 and 3 and units as upper layer units, and units from layers 5 and 6 as lower layer units. Analysis of unit spiking activity demonstrated that both the upper and lower layers encode movement and direction information. Unit responses in either cortical layer of the cortex were not preferentially associated with contralateral or ipsilateral movement. Aggregate analysis (633 neurons) and best session analysis (75 neurons) indicated that units in the lower layers (layers 5, 6) are more likely to encode direction information when compared to units in the upper layers (layers 2, 3) (p< 0.05). These results suggest that electrode sites clustered in the lower layers provide access to more salient control information for cortical neuroprostheses.

  5. Increasing penetration of renewable and distributed electricity generation and the need for different network regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joode, J. de; Jansen, J.C.; Welle, A.J. van der; Scheepers, M.J.J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of decentralised electricity generation (DG) connected to distribution networks increases across EU member states. This increasing penetration of DG units poses potential costs and benefits for distribution system operators (DSOs). These DSOs are regulated since the business of electricity distribution is considered to be a natural monopoly. This paper identifies the impact of increasing DG penetration on the DSO business under varying parameters (network characteristics, DG technologies, network management type) and argues that current distribution network regulation needs to be improved in order for DSOs to continue to facilitate the integration of DG in the network. Several possible adaptations are analysed.

  6. Radon penetration of concrete slab cracks, joints, pipe penetrations, and sealants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nielson, KK; Rogers, VC; Holt, RB; Pugh, TD; Grondzik, WA; deMeijer, RJ

    1997-01-01

    Radon movement through 12 test slabs with different cracks, pipe penetrations, cold joints, masonry blocks, sealants, and tensile stresses characterized the importance of these anomalous structural domains, Diffusive and advective radon transport were measured with steady-state air pressure

  7. Age replacement policy based on imperfect repair with random probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, J.H.; Qu, Jian; Zuo, Ming J.

    2016-01-01

    In most of literatures of age replacement policy, failures before planned replacement age can be either minimally repaired or perfectly repaired based on the types of failures, cost for repairs and so on. In this paper, we propose age replacement policy based on imperfect repair with random probability. The proposed policy incorporates the case that such intermittent failure can be either minimally repaired or perfectly repaired with random probabilities. The mathematical formulas of the expected cost rate per unit time are derived for both the infinite-horizon case and the one-replacement-cycle case. For each case, we show that the optimal replacement age exists and is finite. - Highlights: • We propose a new age replacement policy with random probability of perfect repair. • We develop the expected cost per unit time. • We discuss the optimal age for replacement minimizing the expected cost rate.

  8. The penetrating depth analysis of Lunar Penetrating Radar onboard Chang’e-3 rover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Shu-Guo; Su, Yan; Feng, Jian-Qing; Dai, Shun; Xiao, Yuan; Ding, Chun-Yu; Li, Chun-Lai

    2017-04-01

    Lunar Penetrating Radar (LPR) has successfully been used to acquire a large amount of scientific data during its in-situ detection. The analysis of penetrating depth can help to determine whether the target is within the effective detection range and contribute to distinguishing useful echoes from noise. First, this study introduces two traditional methods, both based on a radar transmission equation, to calculate the penetrating depth. The only difference between the two methods is that the first method adopts system calibration parameters given in the calibration report and the second one uses high-voltage-off radar data. However, some prior knowledge and assumptions are needed in the radar equation and the accuracy of assumptions will directly influence the final results. Therefore, a new method termed the Correlation Coefficient Method (CCM) is provided in this study, which is only based on radar data without any a priori assumptions. The CCM can obtain the penetrating depth according to the different correlation between reflected echoes and noise. To be exact, there is a strong correlation in the useful reflected echoes and a random correlation in the noise between adjacent data traces. In addition, this method can acquire a variable penetrating depth along the profile of the rover, but only one single depth value can be obtained from traditional methods. Through a simulation, the CCM has been verified as an effective method to obtain penetration depth. The comparisons and analysis of the calculation results of these three methods are also implemented in this study. Finally, results show that the ultimate penetrating depth of Channel 1 and the estimated penetrating depth of Channel 2 range from 136.9 m to 165.5 m ({\\varepsilon }r=6.6) and from 13.0 m to 17.5 m ({\\varepsilon }r=2.3), respectively.

  9. Probability theory a comprehensive course

    CERN Document Server

    Klenke, Achim

    2014-01-01

    This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms.   To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as:   • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...

  10. Prophylactic antibiotics for penetrating abdominal trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Martin; Grieve, Andrew

    2013-11-18

    Penetrating abdominal trauma occurs when the peritoneal cavity is breached. Routine laparotomy for penetrating abdominal injuries began in the 1800s, with antibiotics first being used in World War II to combat septic complications associated with these injuries. This practice was marked with a reduction in sepsis-related mortality and morbidity. Whether prophylactic antibiotics are required in the prevention of infective complications following penetrating abdominal trauma is controversial, however, as no randomised placebo controlled trials have been published to date. There has also been debate about the timing of antibiotic prophylaxis. In 1972 Fullen noted a 7% to 11% post-surgical infection rate with pre-operative antibiotics, a 33% to 57% infection rate with intra-operative antibiotic administration and 30% to 70% infection rate with only post-operative antibiotic administration. Current guidelines state there is sufficient class I evidence to support the use of a single pre-operative broad spectrum antibiotic dose, with aerobic and anaerobic cover, and continuation (up to 24 hours) only in the event of a hollow viscus perforation found at exploratory laparotomy. To assess the benefits and harms of prophylactic antibiotics administered for penetrating abdominal injuries for the reduction of the incidence of septic complications, such as septicaemia, intra-abdominal abscesses and wound infections. Searches were not restricted by date, language or publication status. We searched the following electronic databases: the Cochrane Injuries Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library 2013, issue 12 of 12), MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase (OvidSP), ISI Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), ISI Web of Science: Conference Proceedings Citation Index- Science (CPCI-S) and PubMed. Searches were last conducted in January 2013. All randomised controlled trials of antibiotic prophylaxis in patients with penetrating abdominal trauma versus no

  11. The contemporary management of penetrating splenic injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Regan J; Inaba, Kenji; Okoye, Obi; Pasley, Jason; Teixeira, Pedro G; Esparza, Michael; Demetriades, Demetrios

    2014-09-01

    Selective non-operative management (NOM) is standard of care for clinically stable patients with blunt splenic trauma and expectant management approaches are increasingly utilised in penetrating abdominal trauma, including in the setting of solid organ injury. Despite this evolution of clinical practice, little is known about the safety and efficacy of NOM in penetrating splenic injury. Trauma registry and medical record review identified all consecutive patients presenting to LAC+USC Medical Center with penetrating splenic injury between January 2001 and December 2011. Associated injuries, incidence and nature of operative intervention, local and systemic complications and mortality were determined. During the study period, 225 patients experienced penetrating splenic trauma. The majority (187/225, 83%) underwent emergent laparotomy. Thirty-eight clinically stable patients underwent a deliberate trial of NOM and 24/38 (63%) were ultimately managed without laparotomy. Amongst patients failing NOM, 3/14 (21%) underwent splenectomy while an additional 6/14 (42%) had splenorrhaphy. Hollow viscus injury (HVI) occurred in 21% of all patients failing NOM. Forty percent of all NOM patients had diaphragmatic injury (DI). All patients undergoing delayed laparotomy for HVI or a splenic procedure presented symptomatically within 24h of the initial injury. No deaths occurred in patients undergoing NOM. Although the vast majority of penetrating splenic trauma requires urgent operative management, a group of patients does present without haemodynamic instability, peritonitis or radiologic evidence of hollow viscus injury. Management of these patients is complicated as over half may remain clinically stable and can avoid laparotomy, making them potential candidates for a trial of NOM. HVI is responsible for NOM failure in up to a fifth of these cases and typically presents within 24h of injury. Delayed laparotomy, within this limited time period, did not appear to increase

  12. Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

    2018-03-01

    Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

  13. Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Pugachev, V S

    1984-01-01

    Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector

  14. Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications

    CERN Document Server

    Helms, Lester L

    2010-01-01

    This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process

  15. Containment penetration design criteria and implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perry, R.F.; Rigamonti, G.; Dainora, J.

    1975-01-01

    A rational design criteria is presented which serves as a basis for the design and analysis of containment piping penetrations. The criteria includes the effect of temperature as well as mechanical loads for the full range of plant conditions. With this criteria various penetration flued head designs have been compared and optimization achieved. Sleeve wall dimensions and containment loads have been determined without reference to piping configuration. An interaction theory which allows the implementation of the criteria for the determination of design loads and minimum sleeve wall thickness. The interaction theory developed applies to elastic-perfectly plastic cylinders (pipes and sleeves) and accounts for the simultaneous load resultants of transverse shear force, bending moment, torsional moment, and axial force in addition to internal pipe pressure. Application of the theory developed to the determination of sleeve thickness and containment design loads is presented in detail. (Auth.)

  16. Ureteric transection secondary to penetrating handlebar injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.P. Debbink

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Ureteric trauma is rare, occurring in <1% of all traumas. We present a unique case of a 13 year old female who sustained a penetrating abdominal injury from a bicycle handlebar. Upon initial examination there was herniation of bowel through the abdominal wound, so exploratory laparotomy was performed. A serosal injury of the colon and bleeding mesenteric veins were encountered; the retroperitoneum was not explored at that time. Postoperative course was remarkable for a doubling of the serum creatinine, increasing abdominal distention and pain. Computed tomography on postoperative day five demonstrated a large amount of intra-abdominal fluid. The patient was taken for re-exploration. The left ureter was found to be completely transected. It was repaired over a double-J stent. This case demonstrates the need for a high index of suspicion in the diagnosis of ureteric injury. Keywords: Ureter, Bicycle, Handlebar, Penetrating

  17. Corrosion and protection of uranium alloy penetrators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weirick, L.J.; Johnson, H.R.; Dini, J.W.

    1975-06-01

    Penetrators made from either a U--3/4 percent Ti alloy or a U--3/4 percent Mo--3/4 percent Zr--3/4 percent Nb--1/2 percent Ti alloy (''Quad'') corrode mildly in moist air, significantly in moist nitrogen, and severely in salt fog. Adequate protection was provided in moist air and nitrogen by coating with electroplated nickel, electroplated nickel and zinc with a chromate finish, and galvanized zinc with a chromate finish. In salt fog, electroplated nickel offered only temporary protection whereas galvanized zinc and electroplated nickel-zinc provided long-lasting protection. The resistance of uncoated penetrators was affected variously by dissimilar metal couplings. Aluminum protected the Quad alloy and adversely affected the U--3/4 percent Ti alloy, whereas steel enhanced localized corrosion in both. (U.S.)

  18. Eddy current testing with high penetration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, R.; Kroening, M.

    1999-01-01

    The low-frequency eddy current testing method is used when penetration into very deep layers is required. The achievable penetration depth is determined among other parameters by the lowest testing frequency that can be realised together with the eddy current sensor. When using inductive sensors, the measuring effect declines proportional to the lowering frequency (induction effect). Further reduction of testing frequency requires other types of sensors, as e.g. the GMR (Giant Magnetic Resistance), which achieves a constant measuring sensitivity down to the steady field. The multi-frequency eddy current testing method MFEC 3 of IZFP described here can be operated using three different scanning frequencies at a time. Two variants of eddy current probes are used in this case. Both have an inductive winding at their emitters, of the type of a measuring probe. The receiver end is either also an inductive winding, or a magnetic field-responsive resistance (GMR). (orig./CB) [de

  19. Large scale wind power penetration in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karnøe, Peter

    2013-01-01

    he Danish electricity generating system prepared to adopt nuclear power in the 1970s, yet has become the world's front runner in wind power with a national plan for 50% wind power penetration by 2020. This paper deploys a sociotechnical perspective to explain the historical transformation...... of "networks of power" via the interactions of politics, the techno-physics of electrons, and the market setting. The Danish case is about how an assemblage of new agencies has reorganized and reshaped society by building a new sociotechnical network. This has rendered developments highly unpredictable...... and highly experimental. The transformation process can be followed through the way successive technical engineering reports have represented the challenges associated with the penetration of wind power. The iteration shows how novel technical phenomena emerge and are assimilated, and how new engineering...

  20. Suicide bomb attack causing penetrating craniocerebral injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hussain Manzar

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available 【Abstract】Penetrating cerebral injuries caused by foreign bodies are rare in civilian neurosurgical trauma, al-though there are various reports of blast or gunshot inju-ries in warfare due to multiple foreign bodies like pellets and nails. In our case, a 30-year-old man presented to neurosur-gery clinic with signs and symptoms of right-sided weak-ness after suicide bomb attack. The skull X-ray showed a single intracranial nail. Small craniotomy was done and the nail was removed with caution to avoid injury to surround-ing normal brain tissue. At 6 months’ follow-up his right-sided power improved to against gravity. Key words: Head injury, penetrating; Bombs; Nails

  1. Copper foliar sorption: study of cuticular uptake and penetration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamel, Andre; Bougie, Bernadette

    1977-01-01

    Results show that copper is easily retained by enzymatically isolated cuticles from pear leaves discs. The sorption is very rapid during the first hour, then progressively slower with increasing time. Upper and lower cuticles exhibit the same sorption when immersed, but the sorption by the upper internal surface is greater than that by the external surface. Sorption depends on the dates of sampling of the leaves and vegetal species. The variation of the process with concentrations is hyperbolic. The retained copper may be partially exchanged: from 16 to 95% after 24 hours of exchange in a cupric solution, as the Cu concentration increases from 10 -6 to 10 -2 M. The penetration of copper through astomatous cuticular discs is extremely reduced if there is pure water in the receiver unit [fr

  2. Profit-based conventional resource scheduling with renewable energy penetration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, K. Srikanth; Panwar, Lokesh Kumar; Kumar, Rajesh; Panigrahi, B. K.

    2017-08-01

    Technological breakthroughs in renewable energy technologies (RETs) enabled them to attain grid parity thereby making them potential contenders for existing conventional resources. To examine the market participation of RETs, this paper formulates a scheduling problem accommodating energy market participation of wind- and solar-independent power producers (IPPs) treating both conventional and RETs as identical entities. Furthermore, constraints pertaining to penetration and curtailments of RETs are restructured. Additionally, an appropriate objective function for profit incurred by conventional resource IPPs through reserve market participation as a function of renewable energy curtailment is also proposed. The proposed concept is simulated with a test system comprising 10 conventional generation units in conjunction with solar photovoltaic (SPV) and wind energy generators (WEG). The simulation results indicate that renewable energy integration and its curtailment limits influence the market participation or scheduling strategies of conventional resources in both energy and reserve markets. Furthermore, load and reliability parameters are also affected.

  3. Analysis of United States' Broadband Policy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Uzarski, Joel S

    2007-01-01

    .... With every month that passes, the United States fails to close the gap in the digital divide both inside its borders as well as among the other countries that lead the world in broadband penetration...

  4. Standardization of penetrating radiation testing system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiley, P.A.; Aronson, H.L.

    1979-01-01

    Standardization is provided to control system gain of a penetrating radiation testing system by periodically inspecting a reference object in the same manner as the product samples so as to generate a stabilization signal which is compared to a reference signal. The difference, if any, between the stabilization signal and the reference signal is integrated and the integrated signal is used to correct the gain of the system

  5. Market penetration of new energy technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Packey, D.J.

    1993-02-01

    This report examines the characteristics, advantages, disadvantages, and, for some, the mathematical formulas of forecasting methods that can be used to forecast the market penetration of renewable energy technologies. Among the methods studied are subjective estimation, market surveys, historical analogy models, cost models, diffusion models, time-series models, and econometric models. Some of these forecasting methods are more effective than others at different developmental stages of new technologies.

  6. Intrauterine Devices Penetrated and Migrated: CT Findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mejia Restrepo, Jorge; Lopez, Juan Esteban; Aldana Sepulveda, Natalia; Ruiz Zabaleta, Tania; Mazzaro Mauricio

    2011-01-01

    Intrauterine devices have been used for over 40 years, and they constitute the most widely accepted method of contraception among women because of the low rates of complications and low cost. Although uncommon, with the growing use of multidetector CT penetrated and migrated intrauterine devices have become a more common incidental finding. In some cases, intrauterine devices migrate to adjacent viscera, in particular the bladder and bowel and may give rise to symptoms. Consequently tomographic localization and characterization are essential for treatment planning.

  7. Models of fast-electron penetration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perry, D.J.; Raisis, S.K.

    1994-01-01

    We introduce multiple scattering models of charged-particle penetration which are based on the previous analyses of Yang and Perry. Our development removes the main limitations of the Fermi-Eyges approach while retaining its considerable potential as a theory which is useful for applied work. We illustrate key predictions with sample calculations that are of particular interest in therapeutic applications, 5-20 MeV electrons incident on water. 8 refs., 5 figs

  8. Thyroid Emphysema Following Penetrating Neck Trauma

    OpenAIRE

    Karadağ, Demet; Doner, Egemen; Adapınar, Baki

    2014-01-01

    Although traumatic thyroid gland rupture or hemorrhage is usually seen in goitrous glands, injuries of the normal thyroid gland after neck trauma have rarely been described in the literature. We describe a 44-year-old man who presented with thyroid emphysema and subcutaneous emphysema (SCE) that occurred after penetrating neck trauma. CT images showed complete resolution of thyroid emphysema and subcutaneous emphysema at follow-up examination. Neck injuries can be life threatening. After pene...

  9. An energy approach study of the penetration of concrete by rigid missiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guirgis, Sameh; Guirguis, Ehab

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an energy approach for investigating the penetration of concrete by rigid missiles and the associated phenomena. However, the principal assumptions made here must be validated experimentally before giving the proposed subject further considerations. In the following, a new measure for concrete resistance to penetration by hard missiles is presented. The suggested term for this measure is 'the Volumetric Crushing Energy Density' of concrete which can be described as the energy required for converting a unit volume of concrete to separate particles under compressive loading so that the particles of the crushed volume meet certain gradation criteria. Using this quantity, an explanation of the scale effect is postulated. Moreover, a dimensionless semi-analytical formula for the penetration depth of a rigid missile in a concrete target is proposed which includes a large number of the variables of the problem. The formula assumes that the penetration incident may include several successive phases where the set of variables that governs the impact is different during each phase, and the variables that characterize the impact during each phase correlate in a different manner as well. Furthermore, many of the penetration depth formulae available in the literature are rewritten according to the formula proposed here where the concrete penetration resistance of any incident is estimated by modifying the resistance of 'reference impact incidents.' The rewritten formulae show the wide variation of the values of concrete resistance which are implicitly included in the original formulae. Finally, the proposed formula is applied using data of penetration experiments presented by Forrestal et al. [Forrestal, M.J., Altman, B.S., Cargile, J.D., Hanchak, S.J., 1994. An empirical equation for penetration depth of ogive-nose projectiles into concrete targets. Int. J. Impact Eng. 15(4), 395-405; Forrestal, M.J., Frew, D.J., Hickerson, J.P., Rohwer, T.A., 2003

  10. Penetration of HEPA filters by alpha recoil aerosols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDowell, W.J.; Seeley, F.G.; Ryan, M.T.

    1976-01-01

    Tests at Oak Ridge National Laboratory confirmed that alpha-emitting particulate matter does penetrate high-efficiency filter medium, identical to that used in HEPA filters, much more effectively than do non-radioactive or beta-gamma active aerosols. Filter retention efficiencies drastically lower than the 99.97 percent quoted for ordinary particulate matter have been observed with 212 Pb, 253 Es, and 238 Pu sources, indicating that the phenomenon is common to all of these and probably to all alpha-emitting materials of appropriate half-life. Results with controlled air-flow through filters in series are consistent with the picture of small particles dislodged from the ''massive'' surface of an alpha-active material, and then repeatedly dislodged from positions on the filter fibers, by the alpha recoils. The process shows only a small dependence on the physical form of the source material. Oxide dust, nitrate salt, and plated metal all seem to generate the recoil particles effectively. The amount penetrating a series of filters depends on the total amount of activity in the source material, its specific activity, and the length of time of air flow. Dependence on the air flow velocity is slight. It appears that this phenomenon has not been observed in previous experiments with alpha-active aerosols because the tests did not continue for a sufficiently long time. A theoretical model of the process has been developed, amenable to computer handling, that should allow calculation of the rate constants associated with the transfer through and release of radioactive material from a filter system by this process

  11. Penetration of HEPA filters by alpha recoil aerosols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDowell, W.J.; Seeley, F.G.; Ryan, M.T.

    1976-01-01

    The self-scattering of alpha-active substances has long been recognized and is attributed to expulsion of aggregates of atoms from the surface of alpha-active materials by alpha emission recoil energy, and perhaps to further propulsion of these aggregates by subsequent alpha recoils. Workers at the University of Lowell recently predicted that this phenomenon might affect the retention of alpha-active particulate matter by HEPA filters, and found support in experiments with 212 Pb. Tests at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have confirmed that alpha-emitting particulate matter does penetrate high-efficiency filter media, such as that used in HEPA filters, much more effectively than do non-radioactive or beta-gamma active aerosols. Filter retention efficiencies drastically lower than the 99.9 percent quoted for ordinary particulate matter were observed with 212 Pb, 253 Es, and 238 Pu sources, indicating that the phenomenon is common to all of these and probably to all alpha-emitting materials of appropriate half-life. Results with controlled air-flow through filters in series are consistent with the picture of small particles dislodged from the ''massive'' surface of an alpha-active material, and then repeatedly dislodged from positions on the filter fibers by subsequent alpha recoils. The process shows only a small dependence on the physical form of the source material. Oxide dust, nitrate salt, and plated metal all seem to generate the recoil particles effectively. The amount penetrating a series of filters depends on the total amount of activity in the source material, its specific activity, and the length of time of air flow

  12. Penetrating spinal injuries and their management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Kumar

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Penetrating spinal trauma due to missile/gunshot injuries has been well reported in the literature and has remained the domain of military warfare more often. Civic society′s recent upsurge in gunshot injuries has created a dilemma for the treating neurosurgeon in many ways as their management has always involved certain debatable and controversial issues. Both conservative and surgical management of penetrating spinal injuries (PSI have been practiced widely. The chief neurosurgical concern in these types of firearm injuries is the degree of damage sustained during the bullet traversing through the neural tissue and the after-effects of the same in long term. We had an interesting case of a penetrating bullet injury to cervical spine at C2 vertebral level. He was operated and the bullets were removed from posterior midline approach. Usually, the management of such cases differs from region to region depending on the preference of the surgeon but still certain common principles are followed world over. Thus, we realized the need to review the literature regarding spinal injuries with special emphasis on PSI and to study the recent guidelines for their treatment in light of our case.

  13. Cutaneous mucormycosis secondary to penetrative trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahoor, Bilal; Kent, Stephen; Wall, Daryl

    2016-07-01

    Mucormycosis is a rare but serious sequelae of penetrating trauma [1-5]. In spite of aggressive management, mortality remains high due to dissemination of infection. We completed a review of literature to determine the most optimal treatment of cutaneous mucormycosis which occurs secondary to penetrating trauma. We completed a review regarding the management of mucormycosis in trauma patients. We selected a total of 36 reports, of which 18 were case-based, for review. Surgical debridement is a primary predictor of improved outcomes in the treatment of mucormycosis [3,6,7]. Anti-fungal therapy, especially lipid soluble formulation of Amphotericin B, is helpful as an adjunct or when surgical debridement has been maximally achieved. Further research is needed to fully evaluate the impact of topical dressings; negative pressure wound therapy is helpful. An aggressive and early surgical approach, even at the expense of disfigurement, is necessary to reduce mortality in the setting of cutaneous mucormycosis that results from penetrating trauma [4,8,9]. Anti-fungal therapy and negative pressure wound therapy are formidable adjuncts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Deep penetration of light into biotissue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bearden, Edward D.; Wilson, James D.; Zharov, Vladimir P.; Lowery, Curtis L.

    2001-07-01

    The results of a study of deep (several centimeters) light penetration into biological tissue are presented in order to estimate its significance to potentially photosensitive structures and processes including the fetal eyes. In order to accomplish this goal, samples of various tissues (fat, muscle, and uterus) from surgical patients and autopsies were examined with a double integrating sphere arrangement to determine their optical properties. The results were implemented in a Monte Carlo modeling program. Next, optical fiber probes were inserted into the uterus and abdominal wall of patients undergoing laparoscopic procedures. The fibers were couples to a photomultiplier tube with intervening filters allowing measurements of light penetration at various wavelengths. To determine the feasibility of stimulation in utero, a xenon lamp and waveguide were used to transilluminate the abdomen of several labor patients. Light in the range of 630 to 670 nm where the eye sensitivity and penetration depth are well matched, will likely provide the best chance of visual stimulation. Fetal heart rate, fetal movement, and fetal magnetoencephalography (SQUID) and electroencephalography (EEG) were observed in different studies to determine if stimulation has occurred. Since internal organs and the fetus are completely dark adapted, the amount of light required to simulate in our opinion could be on the order of 10(superscript -8 Watts.

  15. Penetration in bimodal, polydisperse granular material

    KAUST Repository

    Kouraytem, Nadia; Thoroddsen, Sigurdur T; Marston, J. O.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the impact penetration of spheres into granular media which are compositions of two discrete size ranges, thus creating a polydisperse bimodal material. We examine the penetration depth as a function of the composition (volume fractions of the respective sizes) and impact speed. Penetration depths were found to vary between delta = 0.5D(0) and delta = 7D(0), which, for mono-modal media only, could be correlated in terms of the total drop height, H = h + delta, as in previous studies, by incorporating correction factors for the packing fraction. Bimodal data can only be collapsed by deriving a critical packing fraction for each mass fraction. The data for the mixed grains exhibit a surprising lubricating effect, which was most significant when the finest grains [d(s) similar to O(30) mu m] were added to the larger particles [d(l) similar to O(200 - 500) mu m], with a size ratio, epsilon = d(l)/d(s), larger than 3 and mass fractions over 25%, despite the increased packing fraction. We postulate that the small grains get between the large grains and reduce their intergrain friction, only when their mass fraction is sufficiently large to prevent them from simply rattling in the voids between the large particles. This is supported by our experimental observations of the largest lubrication effect produced by adding small glass beads to a bed of large sand particles with rough surfaces.

  16. Penetration in bimodal, polydisperse granular material

    KAUST Repository

    Kouraytem, N.

    2016-11-07

    We investigate the impact penetration of spheres into granular media which are compositions of two discrete size ranges, thus creating a polydisperse bimodal material. We examine the penetration depth as a function of the composition (volume fractions of the respective sizes) and impact speed. Penetration depths were found to vary between delta = 0.5D(0) and delta = 7D(0), which, for mono-modal media only, could be correlated in terms of the total drop height, H = h + delta, as in previous studies, by incorporating correction factors for the packing fraction. Bimodal data can only be collapsed by deriving a critical packing fraction for each mass fraction. The data for the mixed grains exhibit a surprising lubricating effect, which was most significant when the finest grains [d(s) similar to O(30) mu m] were added to the larger particles [d(l) similar to O(200 - 500) mu m], with a size ratio, epsilon = d(l)/d(s), larger than 3 and mass fractions over 25%, despite the increased packing fraction. We postulate that the small grains get between the large grains and reduce their intergrain friction, only when their mass fraction is sufficiently large to prevent them from simply rattling in the voids between the large particles. This is supported by our experimental observations of the largest lubrication effect produced by adding small glass beads to a bed of large sand particles with rough surfaces.

  17. Root hairs aid soil penetration by anchoring the root surface to pore walls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bengough, A Glyn; Loades, Kenneth; McKenzie, Blair M

    2016-02-01

    The physical role of root hairs in anchoring the root tip during soil penetration was examined. Experiments using a hairless maize mutant (Zea mays: rth3-3) and its wild-type counterpart measured the anchorage force between the primary root of maize and the soil to determine whether root hairs enabled seedling roots in artificial biopores to penetrate sandy loam soil (dry bulk density 1.0-1.5g cm(-3)). Time-lapse imaging was used to analyse root and seedling displacements in soil adjacent to a transparent Perspex interface. Peak anchorage forces were up to five times greater (2.5N cf. 0.5N) for wild-type roots than for hairless mutants in 1.2g cm(-3) soil. Root hair anchorage enabled better soil penetration for 1.0 or 1.2g cm(-3) soil, but there was no significant advantage of root hairs in the densest soil (1.5g cm(-3)). The anchorage force was insufficient to allow root penetration of the denser soil, probably because of less root hair penetration into pore walls and, consequently, poorer adhesion between the root hairs and the pore walls. Hairless seedlings took 33h to anchor themselves compared with 16h for wild-type roots in 1.2g cm(-3) soil. Caryopses were often pushed several millimetres out of the soil before the roots became anchored and hairless roots often never became anchored securely.The physical role of root hairs in anchoring the root tip may be important in loose seed beds above more compact soil layers and may also assist root tips to emerge from biopores and penetrate the bulk soil. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology.

  18. CNS penetration of ART in HIV-infected children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Hof, Malon; Blokhuis, Charlotte; Cohen, Sophie; Scherpbier, Henriette J.; Wit, Ferdinand W. N. M.; Pistorius, M. C. M.; Kootstra, Neeltje A.; Teunissen, Charlotte E.; Mathot, Ron A. A.; Pajkrt, Dasja

    2018-01-01

    Background: Paediatric data on CNS penetration of antiretroviral drugs are scarce. Objectives: To evaluate CNS penetration of antiretroviral drugs in HIV-infected children and explore associations with neurocognitive function. Patients and methods: Antiretroviral drug levels were measured in paired

  19. K-forbidden transition probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saitoh, T.R.; Sletten, G.; Bark, R.A.; Hagemann, G.B.; Herskind, B.; Saitoh-Hashimoto, N.; Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki

    2000-01-01

    Reduced hindrance factors of K-forbidden transitions are compiled for nuclei with A∝180 where γ-vibrational states are observed. Correlations between these reduced hindrance factors and Coriolis forces, statistical level mixing and γ-softness have been studied. It is demonstrated that the K-forbidden transition probabilities are related to γ-softness. The decay of the high-K bandheads has been studied by means of the two-state mixing, which would be induced by the γ-softness, with the use of a number of K-forbidden transitions compiled in the present work, where high-K bandheads are depopulated by both E2 and ΔI=1 transitions. The validity of the two-state mixing scheme has been examined by using the proposed identity of the B(M1)/B(E2) ratios of transitions depopulating high-K bandheads and levels of low-K bands. A break down of the identity might indicate that other levels would mediate transitions between high- and low-K states. (orig.)

  20. Vena Cava Filter Retrieval with Aorto-Iliac Arterial Strut Penetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holly, Brian P; Gaba, Ron C; Lessne, Mark L; Lewandowski, Robert J; Ryu, Robert K; Desai, Kush R; Sing, Ronald F

    2018-05-03

    To evaluate the safety and technical success of inferior vena cava (IVC) filter retrieval in the setting of aorto-iliac arterial strut penetration. IVC filter registries from six large United States IVC filter retrieval practices were retrospectively reviewed to identify patients who underwent IVC filter retrieval in the setting of filter strut penetration into the adjacent aorta or iliac artery. Patient demographics, implant duration, indication for placement, IVC filter type, retrieval technique and technical success, adverse events, and post procedural clinical outcomes were identified. Arterial penetration was determined based on pre-procedure CT imaging in all cases. The IVC filter retrieval technique used was at the discretion of the operating physician. Seventeen patients from six US centers who underwent retrieval of an IVC filter with at least one strut penetrating either the aorta or iliac artery were identified. Retrieval technical success rate was 100% (17/17), without any major adverse events. Post-retrieval follow-up ranging from 10 days to 2 years (mean 4.6 months) was available in 12/17 (71%) patients; no delayed adverse events were encountered. Findings from this series suggest that chronically indwelling IVC filters with aorto-iliac arterial strut penetration may be safely retrieved.

  1. Ultrasonic Phased Array Assessment of the Interference Fit and Leak Path of the North Anna Unit 2 Control Rod Drive Mechanism Nozzle 63 with Destructive Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crawford, Susan L.; Cinson, Anthony D.; MacFarlan, Paul J.; Hanson, Brady D.; Mathews, Royce

    2012-08-01

    The objective of this investigation was to evaluate the efficacy of ultrasonic testing (UT) for primary water leak path assessments of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) upper head penetrations. Operating reactors have experienced leakage when stress corrosion cracking of nickel-based alloy penetrations allowed primary water into the annulus of the interference fit between the penetration and the low-alloy steel RPV head. In this investigation, UT leak path data were acquired for an Alloy 600 control rod drive mechanism nozzle penetration, referred to as Nozzle 63, which was removed from the North Anna Unit 2 reactor when the RPV head was replaced in 2002. In-service inspection prior to the head replacement indicated that Nozzle 63 had a probable leakage path through the interference fit region. Nozzle 63 was examined using a phased-array UT probe with a 5.0-MHz, eight-element annular array. Immersion data were acquired from the nozzle inner diameter surface. The UT data were interpreted by comparing to responses measured on a mockup penetration with known features. Following acquisition of the UT data, Nozzle 63 was destructively examined to determine if the features identified in the UT examination, including leakage paths and crystalline boric acid deposits, could be visually confirmed. Additional measurements of boric acid deposit thickness and low-alloy steel wastage were made to assess how these factors affect the UT response. The implications of these findings for interpreting UT leak path data are described.

  2. Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Taiki

    2011-03-01

    A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

  3. Penetration Testing Curriculum Development in Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengcheng Li

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available As both the frequency and the severity of network breaches have increased in recent years, it is essential that cybersecurity is incorporated into the core of business operations. Evidence from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012 indicates that there is, and will continue to be, a severe shortage of cybersecurity professionals nationwide throughout the next decade. To fill this job shortage we need a workforce with strong hands-on experience in the latest technologies and software tools to catch up with the rapid evolution of network technologies. It is vital that the IT professionals possess up-to-date technical skills and think and act one step ahead of the cyber criminals who are constantly probing and exploring system vulnerabilities. There is no perfect security mechanism that can defeat all the cyber-attacks; the traditional defensive security mechanism will eventually fail to the pervasive zero-day attacks. However, there are steps to follow to reduce an organization’s vulnerability to cyber-attacks and to mitigate damages. Active security tests of the network from a cyber-criminal’s perspective can identify system vulnerabilities that may lead to future breaches. “If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. But if you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of hundred battles” (Sun, 2013. Penetration testing is a discipline within cybersecurity that focuses on identifying and exploiting the vulnerabilities of a network, eventually obtaining access to the critical business information. The pentesters, the security professionals who perform penetration testing, or ethical hackers, break the triad of information security - Confidentiality, Integrity, and Accountability (CIA - as if they were a cyber-criminal. The purpose of ethical hacking or penetration testing is to know what the “enemy” can do and then generate a

  4. A Comparison of the Capability of Sensitivity Level 3 and Sensitivity Level 4 Fluorescent Penetrants to Detect Fatigue Cracks in Aluminum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Bradford, H.

    2009-01-01

    Historically both sensitivity level 3 and sensitivity level 4 fluorescent penetrants have been used to perform NASA Standard Level inspections of aerospace hardware. In April 2008, NASA-STD-5009 established a requirement that only sensitivity level 4 penetrants were acceptable for inspections of NASA hardware. Having NASA contractors change existing processes or perform demonstration tests to certify sensitivity level 3 penetrants posed a potentially huge cost to the Agency. This study was conducted to directly compare the probability of detection sensitivity level 3 and level 4 penetrants using both Method A and Method D inspection processes. The study results strongly support the conclusion that sensitivity level 3 penetrants are acceptable for NASA Standard Level inspections

  5. 40 CFR 1065.365 - Nonmethane cutter penetration fractions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... fractions. 1065.365 Section 1065.365 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED... Measurements § 1065.365 Nonmethane cutter penetration fractions. (a) Scope and frequency. If you use a FID... penetration fractions of methane, PFCH4, and ethane, PF C2H6. As detailed in this section, these penetration...

  6. THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D., E-mail: dclausen@tapir.caltech.edu [TAPIR, Walter Burke Institute for Theoretical Physics, California Institute of Technology, Mailcode 350-17, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  7. THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-01-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH (M ZAMS ). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH (M ZAMS ) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH (M ZAMS ) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH (M ZAMS ) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment

  8. The Black Hole Formation Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH(M ZAMS). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH(M ZAMS) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH(M ZAMS) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH(M ZAMS) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  9. Diffusion of radioactively tagged penetrants through rubbery polymers. II. Dependence on molecular length of penetrant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhee, C.K.; Ferry, J.D.; Fetters, L.J.

    1977-01-01

    The diffusion of radioactively tagged n-hexadecane, n-dotriacontane, and a polybutadiene oligomer with molecular weight 1600 has been studied in 12 rubbery polymers. Diffusion coefficients were obtained from the theory for the thin smear method: for n-hexadecane and for n-dotriacontane (with one exception), in the form appropriate for a completely miscible polymer-penetrant pair, and for the oligomer in the form appropriate for slow entry of the pentrant across the penetrant-polymer interface. For the four flexible linear penetrants, n-dodecane, n-hexadecane, n-dotriacontane, and oligomer, the ratios of diffusion coefficients (or translational friction coefficients) are nearly the same in every polymer. It is concluded that these penetrants travel with similar segmentwise motions, although that is not the case with bulkier, more rigid penetrants. For the three normal paraffins, the friction coefficient is approximately proportional to molecular weight, but that for the oligomer is smaller than would be predicted on this basis

  10. A Statistical Analysis of Industrial Penetration and Internet Intensity in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Lin Chang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is the first to investigate the effect of industrial penetration (geographic concentration of industries and internet intensity (the proportion of enterprises that uses the internet for Taiwan manufacturing firms, and analyses whether the relationships are substitutes or complements. The sample observations are based on a unique set of data, namely 153,081 manufacturing plants, and covers 26 two-digit industry categories and 358 geographical townships in Taiwan. The Heckman sample selection model is used to accommodate sample selectivity for unobservable data for firms that use the internet. The empirical results from Heckman’s two-stage estimation show that: (1 a higher degree of industrial penetration will not affect the probability that firms will use the internet, but it will affect the total expenditure on internet intensity; (2 for two-digit SIC (Standard Industrial Classification industries, industrial penetration generally decreases the total expenditure on internet intensity; and, (3 industrial penetration and internet intensity are substitutes.

  11. Developing High PV Penetration Cases for Frequency Response Study of U.S. Western Interconnection: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tan, Jin; Zhang, Yingchen; Veda, Santosh; Elgindy, Tarek; Liu, Yilu

    2017-04-11

    Recent large penetrations of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and the inertial characteristics of inverter-based generation technologies have caught the attention of those in the electric power industry in the United States. This paper presents a systematic approach to developing test cases of high penetrations of PV for the Western Interconnection. First, to examine the accuracy of the base case model, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) model is validated by using measurement data from synchronized phasor measurement units. Based on the 2022 Light Spring case, we developed four high PV penetration cases for the WECC system that are of interest to the industry: 5% PV+15 % wind, 25% PV+15% wind, 45% PV+15% wind, 65% PV+15% wind). Additionally, a method to project PV is proposed that is based on collected, realistic PV distribution information, including the current and future PV power plant locations and penetrations in the WECC system. Both the utility-scale PV plant and residential rooftop PV are included in this study.

  12. Soil Penetration by Earthworms and Plant Roots--Mechanical Energetics of Bioturbation of Compacted Soils.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siul Ruiz

    Full Text Available We quantify mechanical processes common to soil penetration by earthworms and growing plant roots, including the energetic requirements for soil plastic displacement. The basic mechanical model considers cavity expansion into a plastic wet soil involving wedging by root tips or earthworms via cone-like penetration followed by cavity expansion due to pressurized earthworm hydroskeleton or root radial growth. The mechanical stresses and resulting soil strains determine the mechanical energy required for bioturbation under different soil hydro-mechanical conditions for a realistic range of root/earthworm geometries. Modeling results suggest that higher soil water content and reduced clay content reduce the strain energy required for soil penetration. The critical earthworm or root pressure increases with increased diameter of root or earthworm, however, results are insensitive to the cone apex (shape of the tip. The invested mechanical energy per unit length increase with increasing earthworm and plant root diameters, whereas mechanical energy per unit of displaced soil volume decreases with larger diameters. The study provides a quantitative framework for estimating energy requirements for soil penetration work done by earthworms and plant roots, and delineates intrinsic and external mechanical limits for bioturbation processes. Estimated energy requirements for earthworm biopore networks are linked to consumption of soil organic matter and suggest that earthworm populations are likely to consume a significant fraction of ecosystem net primary production to sustain their subterranean activities.

  13. Experimental and Numerical Study on the Dispersion Patterns and Penetration Properties of MEFP with Seven Arc-Cone Liners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JianFeng Liu

    Full Text Available Abstract A new MEFP warhead with seven arc-cone liners which can form 7, 13 or 19 penetrators at different standoffs is designed. Dispersion patterns and penetration properties of MEFP are performed on five #45 steel targets of dimension 160cm x 160cm x 1.5cm at various standoffs (45cm, 60cm, 80cm, 120cm, 170cm. It reaches the conclusion that every surrounding liner is broken into three penetrators during the formation process of MEFP and a group of aimable penetrators consisting a central projectile surrounded by 18 penetrators is finally formed. Maximum divergence angle of surrounding penetrator is 9.8° and the damage area reaches 0.37m2 at 1.7m. A nonlinear surface fitting about perforations information on the targets at different standoffs provides a method of predicting the dispersion patterns of MEFP. Once initiated, damage probability for defeating light armor of MEFP warhead with seven arc-cone liners is significantly improved and the results provide important reference to the design and optimization of MEFP warhead in engineering.

  14. Foundations of the theory of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Kolmogorov, AN

    2018-01-01

    This famous little book remains a foundational text for the understanding of probability theory, important both to students beginning a serious study of probability and to historians of modern mathematics. 1956 second edition.

  15. The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2012-01-01

    This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

  16. Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan eCort

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.

  17. Analytic Neutrino Oscillation Probabilities in Matter: Revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parke, Stephen J. [Fermilab; Denton, Peter B. [Copenhagen U.; Minakata, Hisakazu [Madrid, IFT

    2018-01-02

    We summarize our recent paper on neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter, explaining the importance, relevance and need for simple, highly accurate approximations to the neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter.

  18. Penetration Testing Professional Ethics: a conceptual model and taxonomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Pierce

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available In an environment where commercial software is continually patched to correct security flaws, penetration testing can provide organisations with a realistic assessment of their security posture. Penetration testing uses the same principles as criminal hackers to penetrate corporate networks and thereby verify the presence of software vulnerabilities. Network administrators can use the results of a penetration test to correct flaws and improve overall security. The use of hacking techniques, however, raises several ethical questions that centre on the integrity of the tester to maintain professional distance and uphold the profession. This paper discusses the ethics of penetration testing and presents our conceptual model and revised taxonomy.

  19. Assessing the credibility of diverting through containment penetrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooley, J.N.; Swindle, D.W. Jr.

    1980-01-01

    A viable approach has been developed for identifying those containment penetrations in a nuclear fuel reprocessing plant which are credible diversion routes. The approach is based upon systematic engineering and design analyses and is applied to each type of penetration to determine which penetrations could be utilized to divert nuclear material from a reprocessing facility. The approach is described and the results of an application are discussed. In addition, the concept of credibility is developed and discussed. For a typical reprocessing plant design, the number of penetrations determined to be credible without process or piping modifications was approx. 16% of the penetrations originally identified

  20. Void probability scaling in hadron nucleus interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Dipak; Deb, Argha; Bhattacharyya, Swarnapratim; Ghosh, Jayita; Bandyopadhyay, Prabhat; Das, Rupa; Mukherjee, Sima

    2002-01-01

    Heygi while investigating with the rapidity gap probability (that measures the chance of finding no particle in the pseudo-rapidity interval Δη) found that a scaling behavior in the rapidity gap probability has a close correspondence with the scaling of a void probability in galaxy correlation study. The main aim in this paper is to study the scaling behavior of the rapidity gap probability

  1. Extreme value statistics for two-dimensional convective penetration in a pre-main sequence star

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, J.; Baraffe, I.; Goffrey, T.; Constantino, T.; Viallet, M.; Popov, M. V.; Walder, R.; Folini, D.

    2017-08-01

    Context. In the interior of stars, a convectively unstable zone typically borders a zone that is stable to convection. Convective motions can penetrate the boundary between these zones, creating a layer characterized by intermittent convective mixing, and gradual erosion of the density and temperature stratification. Aims: We examine a penetration layer formed between a central radiative zone and a large convection zone in the deep interior of a young low-mass star. Using the Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC) to simulate two-dimensional compressible stellar convection in a spherical geometry over long times, we produce statistics that characterize the extent and impact of convective penetration in this layer. Methods: We apply extreme value theory to the maximal extent of convective penetration at any time. We compare statistical results from simulations which treat non-local convection, throughout a large portion of the stellar radius, with simulations designed to treat local convection in a small region surrounding the penetration layer. For each of these situations, we compare simulations of different resolution, which have different velocity magnitudes. We also compare statistical results between simulations that radiate energy at a constant rate to those that allow energy to radiate from the stellar surface according to the local surface temperature. Results: Based on the frequency and depth of penetrating convective structures, we observe two distinct layers that form between the convection zone and the stable radiative zone. We show that the probability density function of the maximal depth of convective penetration at any time corresponds closely in space with the radial position where internal waves are excited. We find that the maximal penetration depth can be modeled by a Weibull distribution with a small shape parameter. Using these results, and building on established scalings for diffusion enhanced by large-scale convective motions, we

  2. Market penetration scenarios for fuel cell vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, C.E.; James, B.D.; Lomax, F.D. Jr. [Directed Technologies, Inc., Arlington, VA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Fuel cell vehicles may create the first mass market for hydrogen as an energy carrier. Directed Technologies, Inc., working with the US Department of Energy hydrogen systems analysis team, has developed a time-dependent computer market penetration model. This model estimates the number of fuel cell vehicles that would be purchased over time as a function of their cost and the cost of hydrogen relative to the costs of competing vehicles and fuels. The model then calculates the return on investment for fuel cell vehicle manufacturers and hydrogen fuel suppliers. The model also projects the benefit/cost ratio for government--the ratio of societal benefits such as reduced oil consumption, reduced urban air pollution and reduced greenhouse gas emissions to the government cost for assisting the development of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The purpose of this model is to assist industry and government in choosing the best investment strategies to achieve significant return on investment and to maximize benefit/cost ratios. The model can illustrate trends and highlight the sensitivity of market penetration to various parameters such as fuel cell efficiency, cost, weight, and hydrogen cost. It can also illustrate the potential benefits of successful R and D and early demonstration projects. Results will be shown comparing the market penetration and return on investment estimates for direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles compared to fuel cell vehicles with onboard fuel processors including methanol steam reformers and gasoline partial oxidation systems. Other alternative fueled vehicles including natural gas hybrids, direct injection diesels and hydrogen-powered internal combustion hybrid vehicles will also be analyzed.

  3. Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odafe, Victor U.

    2011-01-01

    Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

  4. Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    López Puga, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.

  5. Simulating barrier penetration during combat. Technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Laquil, P. III.

    1980-04-01

    A computer program, BARS, simulates combat between an adversary group attempting to hijack special nuclear material and escort personnel attempting to protect it. BARS is designed to investigate how various combat strategies and levels of performance affect the time required to penetrate barriers (armor, deterrent systems, etc.) against forcible entry. A Monte Carlo code, BARS uses a game theoretic approach to allocate the attacking and defending forces. Combat suppression is simulated using a stochastic state-transition model for the behavior of individuals under combat stress. The BARS program was developed as part of the overall combat modelling effort of the transportation safeguards program

  6. A medium energy neutron deep penetration experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amian, W.; Cloth, P.; Druecke, V.; Filges, D.; Paul, N.; Schaal, H.

    1986-11-01

    A deep penetration experiment conducted at the Los Alamos WNR facility's Spallation Neutron Target is compared with calculations using intra-nuclear-cascade and S N -transport codes installed at KFA-IRE. In the experiment medium energy reactions induced by neutrons between 15 MeV and about 150 MeV inside a quasi infinite slab of iron have been measured using copper foil monitors. Details of the experimental procedure and the theoretical methods are described. A comparison of absolute reaction rates for both experimentally and theoretically derived reactions is given. The present knowledge of the corresponding monitor reaction cross sections is discussed. (orig.)

  7. Income Inequality and Transnational Corporate Penetration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Beer

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This study examines whether the positive association between national income inequality and transnational corporate penetration found previously by Bornschier and Chase-Dunn (1985 and others circa the late 1960s still holds for the mid-l980s. Both methodological and theoretical problems of earlier studies are discussed and solutions are offered. Economic development, political-institutional and regional variables are also included inthe analyses. While further research is warranted, the results provide support for a World-System/Dependency perspective in understanding income inequality cross-nationally.

  8. Premium Efficiency Motors And Market Penetration Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benhaddadi, Mohamed; Olivier, Guy

    2010-09-15

    This paper illustrates the induced enormous energy saving potential, permitted by using high-efficiency motors. Furthermore, the most important barriers to larger high-efficiency motors utilization are identified, and some incentives recommendations are given to overcome identified impediments. The authors consider that there is a strong case to enhance incentives policies for larger market penetration. The US Energy Policy Act and the Canadian Energy Efficient Act have lead to North American leadership on motor efficiency implementation. North America is not on the leading edge for energy saving and conservation. Motor efficiency is an exception that should be at least maintained.

  9. Hacking with Kali practical penetration testing techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Broad, James

    2013-01-01

    Hacking with Kali introduces you the most current distribution of the de facto standard tool for Linux pen testing. Starting with use of the Kali live CD and progressing through installation on hard drives, thumb drives and SD cards, author James Broad walks you through creating a custom version of the Kali live distribution. You'll learn how to configure networking components, storage devices and system services such as DHCP and web services. Once you're familiar with the basic components of the software, you'll learn how to use Kali through the phases of the penetration testing lifecycle

  10. Penetration of relativistic heavy ions through matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scheidenberger, C.; Geissel, H.

    1997-07-01

    New heavy-ion accelerators covering the relativistic and ultra-relativistic energy regime allow to study atomic collisions with bare and few-electron projectiles. High-resolution magnetic spectrometers are used for precise stopping-power and energy-loss straggling measurements. Refined theories beyond the Born approximation have been developed and are confirmed by experiments. This paper summarizes the large progress in the understanding of relativistic heavy-ion penetration through matter, which has been achieved in the last few years. (orig.)

  11. Penetrating the markets: biomass and commercial distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidl, J.

    1999-01-01

    Although biomass accounts for a significant proportion of renewable energy in Europe, its market penetration could be increased if certain barriers can be surmounted. Some of those barriers are identified and suggestions made as to how they may be overcome through improved 'distribution' in various sectors. To integrate biomass into the electricity distribution system, the commercial distribution of liquid biofuels, and in the commercial distribution of biomass in the heat sector, certain rewards and penalties could be introduced and these are discussed. The low temperature heat market is seen as very important for the further development of bioenergy in Europe. (UK)

  12. Neutron streaming studies along JET shielding penetrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamatelatos, Ion E.; Vasilopoulou, Theodora; Batistoni, Paola; Obryk, Barbara; Popovichev, Sergey; Naish, Jonathan

    2017-09-01

    Neutronic benchmark experiments are carried out at JET aiming to assess the neutronic codes and data used in ITER analysis. Among other activities, experiments are performed in order to validate neutron streaming simulations along long penetrations in the JET shielding configuration. In this work, neutron streaming calculations along the JET personnel entrance maze are presented. Simulations were performed using the MCNP code for Deuterium-Deuterium and Deuterium- Tritium plasma sources. The results of the simulations were compared against experimental data obtained using thermoluminescence detectors and activation foils.

  13. Mastering Kali Linux for advanced penetration testing

    CERN Document Server

    Beggs, Robert W

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an overview of the kill chain approach to penetration testing, and then focuses on using Kali Linux to provide examples of how this methodology is applied in the real world. After describing the underlying concepts, step-by-step examples are provided that use selected tools to demonstrate the techniques. If you are an IT professional or a security consultant who wants to maximize the success of your network testing using some of the advanced features of Kali Linux, then this book is for you. This book will teach you how to become an expert in the pre-engagement, management,

  14. Market penetration of natural gas in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haas, R.; Wirl, F.

    1992-01-01

    The strategy of restricting natural gas to noble uses (directive of EEC and endorsed by the IEA) impeded gas expansion despite substantial upward revisions in the assessment of available resources. However, increasing environmental concern slowly but gradually undermines this strategy because natural gas serves as a substitute for costly abatement. This article discusses the prospect of future natural gas consumption considering economic and ecological facts as well as strategic and political considerations. In fact, we argue that inconsistent political interventions first seriously lowered gas penetration but now favor its use

  15. Kali Linux assuring security by penetration testing

    CERN Document Server

    Ali, Shakeel; Allen, Lee

    2014-01-01

    Written as an interactive tutorial, this book covers the core of Kali Linux with real-world examples and step-by-step instructions to provide professional guidelines and recommendations for you. The book is designed in a simple and intuitive manner that allows you to explore the whole Kali Linux testing process or study parts of it individually.If you are an IT security professional who has a basic knowledge of Unix/Linux operating systems, including an awareness of information security factors, and want to use Kali Linux for penetration testing, then this book is for you.

  16. Dependent Human Error Probability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; Vukovic, I.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of the dependence between dynamic operator actions modeled in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) PRA and estimate the associated impact on Core damage frequency (CDF). This assessment was done improve HEP dependencies implementation inside existing PRA. All of the dynamic operator actions modeled in the NPP PRA are included in this assessment. Determining the level of HEP dependence and the associated influence on CDF are the major steps of this assessment. A decision on how to apply the results, i.e., should permanent HEP model changes be made, is based on the resulting relative CDF increase. Some CDF increase was selected as a threshold based on the NPP base CDF value and acceptance guidelines from the Regulatory Guide 1.174. HEP dependence resulting in a CDF increase of > 5E-07 would be considered potential candidates for specific incorporation into the baseline model. The approach used to judge the level of dependence between operator actions is based on dependency level categories and conditional probabilities developed in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications NUREG/CR-1278. To simplify the process, NUREG/CR-1278 identifies five levels of dependence: ZD (zero dependence), LD (low dependence), MD (moderate dependence), HD (high dependence), and CD (complete dependence). NUREG/CR-1278 also identifies several qualitative factors that could be involved in determining the level of dependence. Based on the NUREG/CR-1278 information, Time, Function, and Spatial attributes were judged to be the most important considerations when determining the level of dependence between operator actions within an accident sequence. These attributes were used to develop qualitative criteria (rules) that were used to judge the level of dependence (CD, HD, MD, LD, ZD) between the operator actions. After the level of dependence between the various HEPs is judged, quantitative values associated with the

  17. Penetration, distribution and kinetics of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin in human skin in vitro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, L.W.D.; Rozman, K.

    1991-01-01

    The in vitro penetration of 3 H-labeled 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) into human cadaver skin was studied at concentrations of 65 and 6.5 ng TCDD per cm 2 of skin surface. Vehicles used were acetone to simulate exposure to TCDD as a dry material, and mineral oil to simulate exposure to TCDD in an oily medium. Penetration was performed for 30, 100, 300, and 1000 min in improved Franz cells. Skin was used either intact, or with stripped horny layer. Skin was sectioned along its natural layers and radioactivity determined in epidermis and dermis. TCDD did not readily penetrate into human skin in vitro. The vehicle of exposure to TCDD played an important role in dermal penetration. The rapidly evaporating acetone allowed TCDD to penetrate deeply into the loose surface lamellae of the horny layer, but then appeared to be poorly available for further penetration. Mineral oil as the vehicle showed its penetration even more. The stratum corneum acted as a protective barrier, as its removal increased the amount of TCDD absorbed into layers of the skin. Hourly rates of adsorption of TCDD per unit area of skin were calculated in two ways: a worst case scenario where TCDD absorbed into any layer of skin including the stratum corneum and a physiological approach where only that amount of TCDD was considered absorbed which had penetrated beyond the epidermis. Under worst case scenario conditions the stratum corneum appeared to mediate dermal absorption of TCDD. This was, however, not the case with the physiological approach. There was a consistent relationship between concentration of TCDD applied and concentration of TCDD found in skin. Also, a clear-cut correlation was found between the amount of TCDD that penetrated and the time of exposure. (orig./MG)

  18. Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

    CERN Document Server

    Ibe, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    The long-awaited revision of Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random Processes expands on the central components that made the first edition a classic. The title is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability t

  19. Probability of Failure in Random Vibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1988-01-01

    Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...

  20. An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2012-01-01

    This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma

  1. Paraconsistent Probabilities: Consistency, Contradictions and Bayes’ Theorem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Bueno-Soler

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper represents the first steps towards constructing a paraconsistent theory of probability based on the Logics of Formal Inconsistency (LFIs. We show that LFIs encode very naturally an extension of the notion of probability able to express sophisticated probabilistic reasoning under contradictions employing appropriate notions of conditional probability and paraconsistent updating, via a version of Bayes’ theorem for conditionalization. We argue that the dissimilarity between the notions of inconsistency and contradiction, one of the pillars of LFIs, plays a central role in our extended notion of probability. Some critical historical and conceptual points about probability theory are also reviewed.

  2. Ultraviolet and visible light penetration of epidermis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggset, G.; Kavli, G.; Volden, G.; Krokan, H.

    1984-01-01

    Light penetration in untanned skin and skin tanned with UVB (middlewave ultraviolet light) or PUVA (Psoralen photochemotherapy) was compared. Transmission at different wavelengths was measured through sheets of intact epidermis isolated by a suction blister technique. Thick epidermis was collected from a newly formed palmar friction bulla. For these studies a monochromator was used and the range of wavelengths examined was 280-700 nm. The transmission was considerably lower in tanned skin and the difference was most pronounced in the UV range. In the UVB range (290-320 nm), transmission was 13-43% for untanned epidermis, 8-12% for UVB tanned and slightly lower for PUVA tanned epidermis. At wavelengths below 325 nm only a few per cent of light penetrate through thick palmar epidermis. Both UVB and PUVA induce increased melanin content and thickening of the epidermis. Our results indicate that melanin is the most efficient protection against UVA while thickening of epidermis may be as important as the increased melanin content for the protection of living basal cells against the harmful UVB rays. (Auth)

  3. Penetrating eye injuries from writing instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly SP

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Simon P Kelly, Graham MB ReevesThe Royal Bolton Hospital, Bolton, UKPurpose: To consider the potential for ocular injury from writing implements by presenting four such cases, and to consider the incidence of such eye injuries from analysis of a national trauma database.Methods: The Home and Leisure Accident Surveillance System was searched for records of eye injuries from writing instruments to provide UK estimates of such injuries. Four patients with ocular penetrating injury from pens or pencils (especially when caused by children, and examined by the authors, are described which illustrate mechanisms of injury.Results: It is estimated that around 748 ocular pen injuries and 892 ocular pencil injuries of undetermined severity occurred annually in the UK during the database surveillance period 2000–2002. No eye injuries from swords, including toy swords and fencing foils, were reported.Conclusion: Ocular perforation sometimes occur from writing instruments that are thrown in the community, especially by children. Implications for policy and prevention are discussed. Non-specialists should have a low threshold for referring patients with eye injuries if suspicious of ocular penetration, even where caused by everyday objects, such as writing instruments.Keywords: eye injury, eye, children, mechanism, writing instruments, prevention

  4. High-Penetration Photovoltaic Planning Methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, David Wenzhong [Alternative Power Innovations, LLC, Broomfield, CO (United States); Muljadi, Eduard [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tian, Tian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Miller, Mackay [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-02-24

    The main objective of this report is to provide an overview of select U.S. utility methodologies for performing high-penetration photovoltaic (HPPV) system planning and impact studies. This report covers the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's orders related to photovoltaic (PV) power system interconnection, particularly the interconnection processes for the Large Generation Interconnection Procedures and Small Generation Interconnection Procedures. In addition, it includes U.S. state interconnection standards and procedures. The procedures used by these regulatory bodies consider the impacts of HPPV power plants on the networks. Technical interconnection requirements for HPPV voltage regulation include aspects of power monitoring, grounding, synchronization, connection to the overall distribution system, back-feeds, disconnecting means, abnormal operating conditions, and power quality. This report provides a summary of mitigation strategies to minimize the impact of HPPV. Recommendations and revisions to the standards may take place as the penetration level of renewables on the grid increases and new technologies develop in future years.

  5. Coulomb explosion of large penetrating molecular clusters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wegner, H.E.; Thieberger, P.

    1981-01-01

    The main purpose of these Coulomb explosion measurements is to determine what kind of structure these and other complex molecules may have and also to determine what other special phenomena may come into play as these complex molecules pass through matter. Although the first preliminary measurements involving the Coulomb explosion of these molecules was reported at this workshop last year, the results are briefly summarized before going on to the more recent measurements obtained with a completely new kind of detector system. This new image intensifier detector system, coupled with a microcomputer, has proven to be a valuable tool in the study of the Coulomb explosion of complex molecules that penetrate matter. In the future, with some additional improvements in the system, and much better statistics for most of the molecules studied to date, it is expected that much new information will be gained about the structure of many kinds of complex molecular ions including the special effects that may be encountered when these fast molecular ions penetrate matter

  6. Penetration of magnetic fields into plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtson, R.D.

    1976-01-01

    A pulsed plasma experiment was constructed to study the penetration of a fast-rising magnetic pulse into an initially unmagnetized, weakly ionized plasma of density 10 11 to 10 13 cm -3 . Magnetic probe data was analyzed using a magnetohydrodynamic approach to obtain detailed information about the dynamics of the penetration mechanism. In particular it is possible to obtain the local resistivity and thus the collision frequency from this data. These collision frequencies compare favorably with theoretical estimates of turbulent collision frequencies. The data indicates that sufficient energy is absorbed to heat the bulk of the plasma to temeratures in excess of 1 keV. A differential rotation of a collisionless theta-pinch column during implosion has been observed and explained by a model in which the driving mechanism is the off-diagonal element p/sub r theta/ of the pressure tensor. Rotational motion was detected by directional probes and spectroscopic techniques. Experimental data were modeled by a one-dimensional hybrid code which included ionization and charge exchange of protons with neutral H atoms

  7. Mass transfer from penetrations in waste containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pescatore, C.; Sastre, C.

    1987-01-01

    Recent studies have indicated that localized corrosion of a relatively small area of a waste container may impair the containment function to such an extent that larger releases may be possible than from the bare waste form. This would take place when a large number of holes coexist on the container while their concentration fields do not interact significantly with each other. After performing a steady state analysis of the release from a hole, it is shown that much fewer independent holes can coexist on a container surface than previously estimated. The calculated radionuclide release from multiple independent holes must be changed accordingly. Previous analyses did not proceed to a correct application of the linear superposition principle. This resulted in unacceptable physical conclusions and undue strain on the performance assessment necessary for a container licensing procedure. The paper also analyzes the steady state release from penetrations of finite length and whose concentration fields interact with one another. The predicted release from these penetrations is lower than the previously calculated release from holes of zero thickness. It is concluded here that the steady-state release from multiple holes on a waste container can not exceed the release from the bare waste form and that multiple perforations need not be a serious liability to container performance. 8 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  8. Characterization of Developer Application Methods Used in Fluorescent Penetrant Inspection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brasche, L. J. H.; Lopez, R.; Eisenmann, D.

    2006-03-01

    Fluorescent penetrant inspection (FPI) is the most widely used inspection method for aviation components seeing use for production as well as an inservice inspection applications. FPI is a multiple step process requiring attention to the process parameters for each step in order to enable a successful inspection. A multiyear program is underway to evaluate the most important factors affecting the performance of FPI, to determine whether existing industry specifications adequately address control of the process parameters, and to provide the needed engineering data to the public domain. The final step prior to the inspection is the application of developer with typical aviation inspections involving the use of dry powder (form d) usually applied using either a pressure wand or dust storm chamber. Results from several typical dust storm chambers and wand applications have shown less than optimal performance. Measurements of indication brightness and recording of the UVA image, and in some cases, formal probability of detection (POD) studies were used to assess the developer application methods. Key conclusions and initial recommendations are provided.

  9. Microglial Inflammasome Activation in Penetrating Ballistic-Like Brain Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Stephanie W; Gajavelli, Shyam; Spurlock, Markus S; Andreoni, Cody; de Rivero Vaccari, Juan Pablo; Bullock, M Ross; Keane, Robert W; Dietrich, W Dalton

    2018-04-02

    Penetrating traumatic brain injury (PTBI) is a significant cause of death and disability in the United States. Inflammasomes are one of the key regulators of the interleukin (IL)-1β mediated inflammatory responses after traumatic brain injury. However, the contribution of inflammasome signaling after PTBI has not been determined. In this study, adult male Sprague-Dawley rats were subjected to sham procedures or penetrating ballistic-like brain injury (PBBI) and sacrificed at various time-points. Tissues were assessed by immunoblot analysis for expression of IL-1β, IL-18, and components of the inflammasome: apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a caspase-activation and recruitment domain (ASC), caspase-1, X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis protein (XIAP), nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain (NOD)-like receptor protein 3 (NLRP3), and gasdermin-D (GSDMD). Specific cell types expressing inflammasome proteins also were evaluated immunohistochemically and assessed quantitatively. After PBBI, expression of IL-1β, IL-18, caspase-1, ASC, XIAP, and NLRP3 peaked around 48 h. Brain protein lysates from PTBI animals showed pyroptosome formation evidenced by ASC laddering, and also contained increased expression of GSDMD at 48 h after injury. ASC-positive immunoreactive neurons within the perilesional cortex were observed at 24 h. At 48 h, ASC expression was concentrated in morphologically activated cortical microglia. This expression of ASC in activated microglia persisted until 12 weeks following PBBI. This is the first report of inflammasome activation after PBBI. Our results demonstrate cell-specific patterns of inflammasome activation and pyroptosis predominantly in microglia, suggesting a sustained pro-inflammatory state following PBBI, thus offering a therapeutic target for this type of brain injury.

  10. Final Technical Report: Distributed Controls for High Penetrations of Renewables

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byrne, Raymond H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Neely, Jason C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rashkin, Lee J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Trudnowski, Daniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wilson, David G. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-12-01

    The goal of this effort was to apply four potential control analysis/design approaches to the design of distributed grid control systems to address the impact of latency and communications uncertainty with high penetrations of photovoltaic (PV) generation. The four techniques considered were: optimal fixed structure control; Nyquist stability criterion; vector Lyapunov analysis; and Hamiltonian design methods. A reduced order model of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) developed for the Matlab Power Systems Toolbox (PST) was employed for the study, as well as representative smaller systems (e.g., a two-area, three-area, and four-area power system). Excellent results were obtained with the optimal fixed structure approach, and the methodology we developed was published in a journal article. This approach is promising because it offers a method for designing optimal control systems with the feedback signals available from Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) data as opposed to full state feedback or the design of an observer. The Nyquist approach inherently handles time delay and incorporates performance guarantees (e.g., gain and phase margin). We developed a technique that works for moderate sized systems, but the approach does not scale well to extremely large system because of computational complexity. The vector Lyapunov approach was applied to a two area model to demonstrate the utility for modeling communications uncertainty. Application to large power systems requires a method to automatically expand/contract the state space and partition the system so that communications uncertainty can be considered. The Hamiltonian Surface Shaping and Power Flow Control (HSSPFC) design methodology was selected to investigate grid systems for energy storage requirements to support high penetration of variable or stochastic generation (such as wind and PV) and loads. This method was applied to several small system models.

  11. Remote fluorescent penetrant system sheds new light on cracking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    A remotely operated fluorescent penetrant inspection system developed in Sweden has successfully identified very small cracks -less than 2mm in length and less than 0.2mm in depth. The method, which is being patented, is applicable to all sizes of tubing, as well as other types of flat or curved surfaces. The system consists of a specially designed probe attached to a flexible hose. The probe is positioned by a remotely operated pusher-puller, which can be attached to any kind of robot. The pusher-puller is equipped with electrical motors and encoders for exact positioning at any given location. The hose is attached to a pump and valve unit remote from the item under test, located in the same area as the control equipment for the pusher-puller and the robot. Once the probe has been positioned in the area of interest, it is able to apply fluorescent penetrant test fluid remotely to the surface under test, using a system of inflatable seals. A fluorescent print is made on the probe head, which is then removed from the tube and another probe head fitted for testing of the next tube. Testing takes about 10 minutes per tube. To take measurements, a photograph of the probe head can be taken under ultraviolet light. Manual transfer of the fluorescent print under ultraviolet light to a transparent plastic sheet, temporarily wrapped around the probe head, is also done. The plastic sheet is then unfolded and copied in a normal photocopying machine, and a permanent record thus created. (author)

  12. Inspections of CRDM Nozzle Penetrations in Paks NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doszpod, B.; Doczi, M.

    2008-01-01

    During the maintenance outage of Unit 2 of Paks Nuclear Power Plant in 2002, performing the regular drop-test of Control Rod Driving Mechanisms (CRDM) reduced drop-speed was observed in case of one CRDM. In spite of the measured value of speed was inside the acceptance limit, so it was still satisfactory, decision was made to disassemble the CRDM to clarify the cause of the speed-anomaly. After removal of the CRDM, by means of visual inspection deformation (bulge) was observed on the inside surface of the heat protection tube of the CRDM nozzle penetration. Deformation was big enough to obstruct the free movement of CRDM. After the deformed heat protection tube was removed, significant bulge was observed also on the corrosion protection tube, at the same elevation. As the root cause of these deformations, presence of water in the space between the CRDM nozzle and the corrosion protection tube was assumed. Non destructive inspection procedures were worked out and utilized to detect the presence of water in the space in question and to find the possible way of water inlet. Performed inspections successfully localized the place of water inlet. Developed inspection program of CRDM nozzles has to be performed during each outage on each unit. Paper deals with introduction of the phenomenon, the cause of damage, inspection the procedures which were worked out and applied, summarize the results of inspections performed.(author)

  13. Stylet penetration of Cacopsylla pyri; an electrical penetration graph (EPG) study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Civolani, S.; Leis, M.; Grandi, G.; Garzo, E.; Pasqualini, E.; Musacchi, S.; Chicca, M.; Castaldelli, G.; Rossie, M.; Tjallingii, W.F.

    2011-01-01

    Detailed information on plant penetration activities by pear psylla Cacopsylla pyri L. (Hemiptera Psyllidae) is essential to study phytoplasma transmission of “Candidatus Phytoplasma pyri” responsible of pear decline disease (PD) and to trace and evaluate resistant traits in new pear tree selections

  14. Long-rod penetration: the transition zone between rigid and hydrodynamic penetration modes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian-feng Lou

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Long-rod penetration in a wide range of velocity means that the initial impact velocity varies in a range from tens of meters per second to several kilometers per second. The long rods maintain rigid state when the impact velocity is low, the nose of rod deforms and even is blunted when the velocity gets higher, and the nose erodes and fails to lead to the consumption of long projectile when the velocity is very high due to instantaneous high pressure. That is, from low velocity to high velocity, the projectile undergoes rigid rods, deforming non-erosive rods, and erosive rods. Because of the complicated changes of the projectile, no well-established theoretical model and numerical simulation have been used to study the transition zone. Based on the analysis of penetration behavior in the transition zone, a phenomenological model to describe target resistance and a formula to calculate penetration depth in transition zone are proposed, and a method to obtain the boundary velocity of transition zone is determined. A combined theoretical analysis model for three response regions is built by analyzing the characteristics in these regions. The penetration depth predicted by this combined model is in good agreement with experimental result.

  15. Sequential probability ratio controllers for safeguards radiation monitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fehlau, P.E.; Coop, K.L.; Nixon, K.V.

    1984-01-01

    Sequential hypothesis tests applied to nuclear safeguards accounting methods make the methods more sensitive to detecting diversion. The sequential tests also improve transient signal detection in safeguards radiation monitors. This paper describes three microprocessor control units with sequential probability-ratio tests for detecting transient increases in radiation intensity. The control units are designed for three specific applications: low-intensity monitoring with Poisson probability ratios, higher intensity gamma-ray monitoring where fixed counting intervals are shortened by sequential testing, and monitoring moving traffic where the sequential technique responds to variable-duration signals. The fixed-interval controller shortens a customary 50-s monitoring time to an average of 18 s, making the monitoring delay less bothersome. The controller for monitoring moving vehicles benefits from the sequential technique by maintaining more than half its sensitivity when the normal passage speed doubles

  16. Medicaid HMO penetration and its mix: did increased penetration affect physician participation in urban markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, E Kathleen; Herring, Bradley

    2008-02-01

    To use changes in Medicaid health maintenance organization (HMO) penetration across markets over time to test for effects on the extent of Medicaid participation among physicians and to test for differences in the effects of increased use of commercial versus Medicaid-dominant plans within the market. The nationally representative Community Tracking Study's Physician Survey for three periods (1996-1997, 1998-1999, and 2000-2001) on 29,866 physicians combined with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and InterStudy data. Market-level estimates of Medicaid HMO penetration are used to test for (1) any participation in Medicaid and (2) the degree to which physicians have an "open" (i.e., nonlimited) practice accepting new Medicaid patients. Models account for physician, firm, and local characteristics, Medicaid relative payment levels adjusted for geographic variation in practice costs, and market-level fixed effects. There is a positive effect of increases in commercial Medicaid HMO penetration on the odds of accepting new Medicaid patients among all physicians, and in particular, among office-based physicians. In contrast, there is no effect, positive or negative, from expanding the penetration of Medicaid-dominant HMO plans within the market. Increases in cost-adjusted Medicaid fees, relative to Medicare levels, were associated with increases in the odds of participation and of physicians having an "open" Medicaid practice. Provider characteristics that consistently lower participation among all physicians include being older, board certified, a U.S. graduate and a solo practitioner. The effects of Medicaid HMO penetration on physician participation vary by the type of plan. If states are able to attract and retain commercial plans, participation by office-based physicians is likely to increase in a way that opens existing practices to more new Medicaid patients. Other policy variables that affect participation include the presence of a federally

  17. Naive Probability: Model-based Estimates of Unique Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-04

    of inference. Argument and Computation, 1–17, iFirst. Khemlani, S., & Johnson-Laird, P.N. (2012b). Theories of the syllogism: A meta -analysis...is the probability that… 1 space tourism will achieve widespread popularity in the next 50 years? advances in material science will lead to the... governments dedicate more resources to contacting extra-terrestrials? 8 the United States adopts an open border policy of universal acceptance? English is

  18. Spinning reserve quantification by a stochastic–probabilistic scheme for smart power systems with high wind penetration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khazali, Amirhossein; Kalantar, Mohsen

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A stochastic–probabilistic approach is proposed for spinning reserve quantification. • A new linearized formulation integrating reliability metrics is presented. • The framework manages the reserve provided by responsive loads and storage systems. • The proposed method is capable of detaching the spinning reserve for different uses. - Abstract: This paper introduces a novel spinning reserve quantification scheme based on a hybrid stochastic–probabilistic approach for smart power systems including high penetration of wind generation. In this research the required spinning reserve is detached into two main parts. The first part of the reserve is procured to overcome imbalances between load and generation in the system. The second part of the required spinning reserve is scheduled according to the probability of unit outages. In order to overcome uncertainties caused by wind generation and load forecasting errors different scenarios of wind generation and load uncertainties are generated. For each scenario the reserve deployed by different components are taken account as the first part of the required reserve which is used to overcome imbalances. The second part of the required reserve is based on reliability constraints. The total expected energy not supplied (TEENS) is the reliability criterion which determines the second part of the required spinning reserve to overcome unit outage possibilities. This formulation permits the independent system operator to purchase the two different types of reserve with different prices. The introduced formulation for reserve quantification is also capable of managing and detaching the reserve provided by responsive loads and energy storage devices. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem including linearized formulations for reliability metrics. Obtained results show the efficiency of the proposed approach compared with the conventional stochastic and deterministic

  19. Assigning probability gain for precursors of four large Chinese earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, T.; Aki, K.

    1983-03-10

    We extend the concept of probability gain associated with a precursor (Aki, 1981) to a set of precursors which may be mutually dependent. Making use of a new formula, we derive a criterion for selecting precursors from a given data set in order to calculate the probability gain. The probabilities per unit time immediately before four large Chinese earthquakes are calculated. They are approximately 0.09, 0.09, 0.07 and 0.08 per day for 1975 Haicheng (M = 7.3), 1976 Tangshan (M = 7.8), 1976 Longling (M = 7.6), and Songpan (M = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively. These results are encouraging because they suggest that the investigated precursory phenomena may have included the complete information for earthquake prediction, at least for the above earthquakes. With this method, the step-by-step approach to prediction used in China may be quantified in terms of the probability of earthquake occurrence. The ln P versus t curve (where P is the probability of earthquake occurrence at time t) shows that ln P does not increase with t linearly but more rapidly as the time of earthquake approaches.

  20. Probability concepts in quality risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claycamp, H Gregg

    2012-01-01

    Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

  1. Transition probability spaces in loop quantum gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiao-Kan

    2018-03-01

    We study the (generalized) transition probability spaces, in the sense of Mielnik and Cantoni, for spacetime quantum states in loop quantum gravity. First, we show that loop quantum gravity admits the structures of transition probability spaces. This is exemplified by first checking such structures in covariant quantum mechanics and then identifying the transition probability spaces in spin foam models via a simplified version of general boundary formulation. The transition probability space thus defined gives a simple way to reconstruct the discrete analog of the Hilbert space of the canonical theory and the relevant quantum logical structures. Second, we show that the transition probability space and in particular the spin foam model are 2-categories. Then we discuss how to realize in spin foam models two proposals by Crane about the mathematical structures of quantum gravity, namely, the quantum topos and causal sites. We conclude that transition probability spaces provide us with an alternative framework to understand various foundational questions of loop quantum gravity.

  2. UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) probability wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Sheng-Cheng; Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B.; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P.; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K.

    A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant", about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.

  3. A probability space for quantum models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, L. F.

    2017-06-01

    A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

  4. Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

    CERN Document Server

    Ibe, Oliver

    2005-01-01

    This book is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability to real-world problems, and introduce the basics of statistics. The book''s clear writing style and homework problems make it ideal for the classroom or for self-study.* Good and solid introduction to probability theory and stochastic processes * Logically organized; writing is presented in a clear manner * Choice of topics is comprehensive within the area of probability * Ample homework problems are organized into chapter sections

  5. Striatal activity is modulated by target probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hon, Nicholas

    2017-06-14

    Target probability has well-known neural effects. In the brain, target probability is known to affect frontal activity, with lower probability targets producing more prefrontal activation than those that occur with higher probability. Although the effect of target probability on cortical activity is well specified, its effect on subcortical structures such as the striatum is less well understood. Here, I examined this issue and found that the striatum was highly responsive to target probability. This is consistent with its hypothesized role in the gating of salient information into higher-order task representations. The current data are interpreted in light of that fact that different components of the striatum are sensitive to different types of task-relevant information.

  6. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  7. Civil engineering applications of ground penetrating radar

    CERN Document Server

    Pajewski, Lara

    2015-01-01

    This book, based on Transport and Urban Development COST Action TU1208, presents the most advanced applications of ground penetrating radar (GPR) in a civil engineering context, with documentation of instrumentation, methods, and results. It explains clearly how GPR can be employed for the surveying of critical transport infrastructure, such as roads, pavements, bridges, and tunnels, and for the sensing and mapping of underground utilities and voids. Detailed attention is also devoted to use of GPR in the inspection of geological structures and of construction materials and structures, including reinforced concrete, steel reinforcing bars, and pre/post-tensioned stressing ducts. Advanced methods for solution of electromagnetic scattering problems and new data processing techniques are also presented. Readers will come to appreciate that GPR is a safe, advanced, nondestructive, and noninvasive imaging technique that can be effectively used for the inspection of composite structures and the performance of diagn...

  8. Cephalic Tetanus from Penetrating Orbital Wound

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eloïse Guyennet

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Tetanus is a neurologic disorder caused by tetanospasmin, a protein toxin elaborated by Clostridium tetani. Cephalic tetanus is a localized form of the disease causing trismus and dysfunction of cranial nerves. We report the case of a man who presented with facial trauma, complete ophthalmoplegia, exophthalmos, areactive mydriasis, and periorbital hematoma. An orbital CT revealed air bubbles in the right orbital apex. The patient was given a tetanus toxoid booster and antibiotherapy. After extraction of a wooden foreign body, the patient developed right facial nerve palsy, disorders of swallowing, contralateral III cranial nerve palsy, and trismus. Only one case of cephalic tetanus from penetrating orbital wound has been reported in literature 20 years ago. When a patient presents with an orbital wound with ophthalmoplegia and signs of anaerobic infection, cephalic tetanus should be ruled out.

  9. Penetration enhancer: monoethylether of diethylene glycol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koprda, V.; Kassai, Z.; Bohacik, L.; Bezek, S.; Hadcrafft, J.; Falson-Rieg, F.

    1999-01-01

    The monoethylether of diethylene glycol (Transcutol), an excellent solubilising agent, has been suggested as a penetration enhancer compatible with trans-dermal drug delivery systems. Using the abdominal skin of 5 day old rats and Franz-type diffusion cells the following topics were studied in this contribution: (1) Flux of Transcutol, labelled with [Ethyl- 14 C]-ether, across an intact skin model, (2) Changes in properties of the skin barrier after stripping with adhesive tape, and (3) Changes in flux of Transcutol when mixed with different co-solvents. The flux from pure solvent in donor compartment reached around 50 μg cm -2 hr -1 across the intact skin horny layer, whilst after 12 strips the flux increased about 200 times. In the presence of propylene glycol dipelargonate, the flux over 2 mg cm -2 hr -1 across non stripped skin was achieved. (authors)

  10. Automatic control of oscillatory penetration apparatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucon, Peter A

    2015-01-06

    A system and method for controlling an oscillatory penetration apparatus. An embodiment is a system and method for controlling a sonic drill having a displacement and an operating range and operating at a phase difference, said sonic drill comprising a push-pull piston and eccentrics, said method comprising: operating the push-pull piston at an initial push-pull force while the eccentrics are operated at a plurality of different operating frequencies within the operating range of the sonic drill and measuring the displacement at each operating frequency; determining an efficient operating frequency for the material being drilled and operating the eccentrics at said efficient operating frequency; determining the phase difference at which the sonic drill is operating; and if the phase difference is not substantially equal to minus ninety degrees, operating the push-pull piston at another push-pull force.

  11. Fluorescent Penetrant INSPECTION—CLEANING Study Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenmann, D.; Brasche, L.

    2009-03-01

    Fluorescent penetrant inspection (FPI) is widely used in the aviation industry and other industries for surface-breaking crack detection. As with all inspection methods, adherence to the process parameters is critical to the successful detection of defects. There is variety of lubricants and surface coatings used in the aviation industry which must be removed prior to FPI. Before the FPI process begins, components are cleaned using a variety of cleaning methods which are selected based on the alloy and the soil types which must be removed. It is also important that the cleaning process not adversely affect the FPI process. From the first three phases of this project it has been found that a hot water rinse can aid in the detection process when using this nondestructive method.

  12. Market penetration of energy supply technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condap, R. J.

    1980-03-01

    Techniques to incorporate the concepts of profit-induced growth and risk aversion into policy-oriented optimization models of the domestic energy sector are examined. After reviewing the pertinent market penetration literature, simple mathematical programs in which the introduction of new energy technologies is constrained primarily by the reinvestment of profits are formulated. The main results involve the convergence behavior of technology production levels under various assumptions about the form of the energy demand function. Next, profitability growth constraints are embedded in a full-scale model of U.S. energy-economy interactions. A rapidly convergent algorithm is developed to utilize optimal shadow prices in the computation of profitability for individual technologies. Allowance is made for additional policy variables such as government funding and taxation. The result is an optimal deployment schedule for current and future energy technologies which is consistent with the sector's ability to finance capacity expansion.

  13. Convective penetration in a young sun

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, Jane; Baraffe, Isabelle; Goffrey, Tom; MUSIC developers group

    2018-01-01

    To interpret the high-quality data produced from recent space-missions it is necessary to study convection under realistic stellar conditions. We describe the multi-dimensional, time implicit, fully compressible, hydrodynamic, implicit large eddy simulation code MUSIC. We use MUSIC to study convection during an early stage in the evolution of our sun where the convection zone covers approximately half of the solar radius. This model of the young sun possesses a realistic stratification in density, temperature, and luminosity. We approach convection in a stellar context using extreme value theory and derive a new model for convective penetration, targeted for one-dimensional stellar evolution calculations. This model provides a scenario that can explain the observed lithium abundance in the sun and in solar-like stars at a range of ages.

  14. Modeling of Oblique Penetration into Geologic Targets Using Cavity Expansion Penetrator Loading with Target free-Surface Effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Joe; Longcope, Donald B.; Tabbara, Mazen R.

    1999-05-03

    A procedure has been developed to represent the loading on a penetrator and its motion during oblique penetration into geologic media. The penetrator is modeled with the explicit dynamics, finite element computer program PRONTO 3D and the coupled pressure on the penetrator is given in a new loading option based on a separate cavity expansion (CE) solution that accounts for the pressure-reduction from a nearby target free surface. The free-surface influ- ence distance is selected in a predictive manner by considering the pressure to expand a spherical cavity in a finite radius sphere of the target material. The CE/PRONTO 3D procedure allows a detailed description of the penetrator for predicting shock environments or structural failure dur- ing the entire penetration event and is sufficiently rapid to be used in design optimization. It has been evaluated by comparing its results with data from two field tests of a full-scale penetrator into frozen soil at an impact angles of 49.6 and 52.5 degrees from the horizontal. The measured penetrator rotations were 24 and 22 degrees, respectively. In the simulation, the rotation was21 degrees and predominately resulted from the pressure reduction of the free surface. Good agree- ment was also found for the penetration depth and axial and lateral acceleration at two locations in the penetrator.

  15. Forestry applications of ground-penetrating radar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorenzo, H.; Perez-Gracia, V.; Novo, A.; Armesto, J.

    2010-07-01

    Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) is a geophysical and close-range remote sensing technique based on the use of radar pulses to obtain cross-section images of underground features. This method is characterized by the transmission of an electromagnetic short length pulse (1-2 ns), presenting a centre frequency ranging from 10 MHz to 2.5 GHz. The principles of GPR operation are based on the ability of low frequency radar waves to penetrate into a non-conductive medium, usually subsoil, but also walls, concrete or wood. Those waves are detected after suffering a reflection in electromagnetic discontinuities of the propagation medium. Therefore, this is a suitable method to study changes in those physical properties, and also to characterize different mediums and the reflective targets providing information about their physical properties. The aim of this work is to describe and demonstrate different applications of GPR in forestry, showing the obtained results together with their interpretation. Firstly, in this paper, it is illustrated how GPR is able to map shallow bedrock, subsoil stratigraphy and also to estimate shallow water table depth. Secondly, different tree trunks as well as dry timber are analyzed, evaluating the different radar data obtained in each particular case, and observing differences in their electromagnetic properties related to the GPR response. Finally, several measurements were taken in order to analyze the use of GPR to detect tree root systems using polarimetric techniques, being possible to detect medium and big size roots, together with groups of small roots. (Author) 39 refs.

  16. Neurosurgical Management of Nonmissile Penetrating Cranial Lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Holanda, Luciano Ferreira; Pereira, Benedito Jamilson A; Holanda, Rafael Rodrigues; Neto, José Targino; de Holanda, Carlos Vanderlei M; Giudicissi Filho, Miguel; de Oliveira, Nathalia Ribeiro Cunha; de Oliveira, Jean G

    2016-06-01

    The objective of this study is to present a case series of nonmissile penetrating (NMP) injuries and to establish a workflow for an uncommon mechanism of traumatic head injury through the analysis of each case, classification of the type of lesion, management, and outcome score at follow-up. From January 1991 to December 2008, 36,000 patients presenting with traumatic brain injury (TBI) were admitted in the Department of Neurosurgery, Hospital Antônio Targino, Campina Grande-PB, Brazil. From these patients, 11 presenting with lesions caused by NMP objects were selected. Among the 11 patients, 9 were men and 2 were women. Their ages ranged from 7 to 74 years old (mean age ± SD, 29.1 ± 22.99 years). All patients underwent neuroradiologic evaluation. The entry point was classified as natural (orbit) or artificial (skull transfixation), and we also divided the patients presenting with secondary parenchymal or vascular damage from those presenting with only lesions caused by the primary penetration into the cranium and meninges. All patients were neurosurgically treated with removal of the foreign body through craniotomy, except the patient whose object (pen) was removed without craniotomy with local anesthesia. Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score on admission was a statistically significant factor on prognosis, and any patient who presented with a GCS score of 15 evolved satisfactorily, and there were no deaths in this group of patients (P = 0.04). TBIs caused by NMP objects are unusual and caused by aggression, self-inflicted harm (in the case of psychiatric patients), and accident. The foreign body may enter into the skull through a natural hole (orbit, nose, mouth, or ear) or crosses the skull, causing a fracture and creating an artificial hole. Preoperative neuroradiologic assessment is paramount for the correct neurosurgical approach. The main prognostic factor for these patients is the GCS score at admission. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Topological properties of the limited penetrable horizontal visibility graph family

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Minggang; Vilela, André L. M.; Du, Ruijin; Zhao, Longfeng; Dong, Gaogao; Tian, Lixin; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2018-05-01

    The limited penetrable horizontal visibility graph algorithm was recently introduced to map time series in complex networks. In this work, we extend this algorithm to create a directed-limited penetrable horizontal visibility graph and an image-limited penetrable horizontal visibility graph. We define two algorithms and provide theoretical results on the topological properties of these graphs associated with different types of real-value series. We perform several numerical simulations to check the accuracy of our theoretical results. Finally, we present an application of the directed-limited penetrable horizontal visibility graph to measure real-value time series irreversibility and an application of the image-limited penetrable horizontal visibility graph that discriminates noise from chaos. We also propose a method to measure the systematic risk using the image-limited penetrable horizontal visibility graph, and the empirical results show the effectiveness of our proposed algorithms.

  18. Crack growth rates in vessel head penetration materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez Briceno, D.; Lapena, J.; Blazquez, F.

    1994-01-01

    The cracks detected in reactor vessel head penetrations in certain European plants have been attributed to Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC). The penetrations in question are made from Inconel 600. The susceptibility of this alloy to PWSCC has been widely studied in relation to use of this material for steam generator tubes. When the first reactor vessel head penetration cracks were detected, most of the available data on crack propagation rates were from test specimens made from steam generator tubes and tested under conditions that questioned the validity of these data for assessment of the evolution of cracks in penetrations. For this reason, the scope of the Spanish Research Project on the Inspection and Repair of PWR reactor vessel head penetrations included the acquisition of data on crack propagation rates in Inconel 600, representative of the materials used for vessel head penetrations. (authors). 1 fig., 2 tabs., 6 refs

  19. Spatial probability aids visual stimulus discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Druker

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We investigated whether the statistical predictability of a target's location would influence how quickly and accurately it was classified. Recent results have suggested that spatial probability can be a cue for the allocation of attention in visual search. One explanation for probability cuing is spatial repetition priming. In our two experiments we used probability distributions that were continuous across the display rather than relying on a few arbitrary screen locations. This produced fewer spatial repeats and allowed us to dissociate the effect of a high probability location from that of short-term spatial repetition. The task required participants to quickly judge the color of a single dot presented on a computer screen. In Experiment 1, targets were more probable in an off-center hotspot of high probability that gradually declined to a background rate. Targets garnered faster responses if they were near earlier target locations (priming and if they were near the high probability hotspot (probability cuing. In Experiment 2, target locations were chosen on three concentric circles around fixation. One circle contained 80% of targets. The value of this ring distribution is that it allowed for a spatially restricted high probability zone in which sequentially repeated trials were not likely to be physically close. Participant performance was sensitive to the high-probability circle in addition to the expected effects of eccentricity and the distance to recent targets. These two experiments suggest that inhomogeneities in spatial probability can be learned and used by participants on-line and without prompting as an aid for visual stimulus discrimination and that spatial repetition priming is not a sufficient explanation for this effect. Future models of attention should consider explicitly incorporating the probabilities of targets locations and features.

  20. Transenamel and transdentinal penetration of hydrogen peroxide applied to cracked or microabrasioned enamel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briso, A L F; Lima, A P B; Gonçalves, R S; Gallinari, M O; dos Santos, P H

    2014-01-01

    The present study evaluated transenamel and transdentinal penetration of hydrogen peroxide during tooth whitening recognized in altered enamel by the presence of cracks or microabrasion. We used 72 experimental units (n=20) obtained from bovine incisors: GI-sound enamel; GII-teeth showing visible enamel cracks (4 mm to 5.7 mm in length); and GIII-microabrasioned enamel. The 12 remaining specimens were used to analyze the enamel surface morphology using scanning electron microscopy. The specimens were cylindrical and 5.7 mm in diameter and 3.5 mm thick. A product based on 35% hydrogen peroxide was used for bleaching, following the manufacturer's recommendations for use. To quantify the H2O2 penetration, the specimens were placed in artificial pulp chambers containing an acetate buffer solution. After bleaching, the solution was collected and adequately proportioned with leucocrystal violet, peroxidase enzyme, and deionized water. The resulting solution was evaluated using ultraviolet visible reflectance spectrophotometer equipment. The data were analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Fisher's PLSD at a significance level of 0.05, and significant differences in the penetration of peroxide in different substrate conditions were observed (penamel was microabraded showed intermediate values when compared to the control group. Microabrasion and the presence of cracks in the enamel make this substrate more susceptible to penetration of hydrogen peroxide during in-office whitening.

  1. Is probability of frequency too narrow?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F.

    1993-01-01

    Modern methods of statistical data analysis, such as empirical and hierarchical Bayesian methods, should find increasing use in future Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications. In addition, there will be a more formalized use of expert judgment in future PRAs. These methods require an extension of the probabilistic framework of PRA, in particular, the popular notion of probability of frequency, to consideration of frequency of frequency, frequency of probability, and probability of probability. The genesis, interpretation, and examples of these three extended notions are discussed

  2. Effect of shrapnel penetration on lithium-carbon monofluoride and lithium-manganese dioxide batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrard, W. N. C.

    National BR2/3A lithium-carbon monofluoride and Duracell DL2/3A lithium-manganese dioxide batteries were subjected to simulated shrapnel penetration using a projectile from an M16 rifle. Trials were conducted on batteries in various states of charge (0, 50, and 100 percent discharged) in both wet and dry environments. Only one fully charged Duracell Battery (under wet conditions) caught fire during the test. The effects of environmental conditions, the chemical reactions involved, and the state of charge of the batteries on the probability of the batteries igniting are discussed.

  3. Penetrating head injury with bilateral eye avulsion due to Himalayan bear bite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roka, Yam B; Roka, Narayani; Shrestha, Manzil; Puri, Puspa R; Adhikari, Hari B

    2012-12-01

    The Himalayan black bear (Ursus thibetanus or Selenarctos thibetanus), although an omnivore, is more carnivorous than its American counterpart. It is also more aggressive towards humans and is a threatened species because of the deforestation in the Himalayas. Furthermore, poverty, encroachment of the forest, extensive deforestation, lack of education and living near the forest are factors that increase the probability of such animal injuries. We report the case of a 35-year-old woman who suffered a severe penetrating head injury with scalp and bilateral eye avulsion, which was managed successfully. © 2012 The Authors. EMA © 2012 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

  4. Vehicle effects on human stratum corneum absorption and skin penetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Alissa; Jung, Eui-Chang; Zhu, Hanjiang; Zou, Ying; Hui, Xiaoying; Maibach, Howard

    2017-05-01

    This study evaluated the effects of three vehicles-ethanol (EtOH), isopropyl alcohol (IPA), and isopropyl myristate (IPM)-on stratum corneum (SC) absorption and diffusion of the [ 14 C]-model compounds benzoic acid and butenafine hydrochloride to better understand the transport pathways of chemicals passing through and resident in SC. Following application of topical formulations to human dermatomed skin for 30 min, penetration flux was observed for 24 h post dosing, using an in vitro flow-through skin diffusion system. Skin absorption and penetration was compared to the chemical-SC (intact, delipidized, or SC lipid film) binding levels. A significant vehicle effect was observed for chemical skin penetration and SC absorption. IPA resulted in the greatest levels of intact SC/SC lipid absorption, skin penetration, and total skin absorption/penetration of benzoic acid, followed by IPM and EtOH, respectively. For intact SC absorption and total skin absorption/penetration of butenafine, the vehicle that demonstrated the highest level of sorption/penetration was EtOH, followed by IPA and IPM, respectively. The percent doses of butenafine that were absorbed in SC lipid film and penetrated through skin in 24 h were greatest for IPA, followed by EtOH and IPM, respectively. The vehicle effect was consistent between intact SC absorption and total chemical skin absorption and penetration, as well as SC lipid absorption and chemical penetration through skin, suggesting intercellular transport as a main pathway of skin penetration for model chemicals. These results suggest the potential to predict vehicle effects on skin permeability with simple SC absorption assays. As decontamination was applied 30 min after chemical exposure, significant vehicle effects on chemical SC partitioning and percutaneous penetration also suggest that skin decontamination efficiency is vehicle dependent, and an effective decontamination method should act on chemical solutes in the lipid domain.

  5. Effects of magnetic shear on current penetration in a tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Pengyun; Wang Long

    2001-01-01

    The penetrations of the parallel and perpendicular components of plasma currents are interrelated to each other due to the existence of magnetic shear in a tokamak configuration. Effects of the shear on the penetration of Fourier components of toroidal plasma current are analysed in a cylindrical column model. The current penetration is obviously strengthened by the shear for a bell-bike conductivity profile and low safety factor and low aspect ratio

  6. Microstructural observations on the terminal penetration of long rod projectile

    OpenAIRE

    Krushna Kumbhar; P. Ponguru Senthil; A.K. Gogia

    2017-01-01

    Present study focuses on the terminal penetration of tungsten heavy alloy (WHA) long rod penetrator impacted against armour steel at an impact velocity of 1600 m/s. The residual penetrator and armour steel target recovered after the ballistic test have been characterized using optical microscope, scanning electron microscope (SEM) and electron probe micro analyzer (EPMA). Metallurgical changes in target steel and WHA remnant have been analysed. Large shear stresses and shear localization have...

  7. Penetration Testing dan Analisis Kemanan Web Paud Dikmas

    OpenAIRE

    Giffari, Abizar

    2018-01-01

    Sebuah instansi atau perusahaan tentunya mempunyai data penting yang tersimpan dalam sebuah sistem database yang kuat dan aman untuk menghindari ancaman pencurian data dari pihak luar. Untuk mengukur sejauh mana tingkat keamanan yang dibuat, diperlukan sebuah metode pengetesan yang disebut Penetration Testing. Penetration Testing memungkinkan kita untuk dapat menentukan sejauh mana tingkat keamanan sistem yang di test. Penetration Testing juga memungkinkan kita menyerang sistem layaknya attac...

  8. Building virtual pentesting labs for advanced penetration testing

    CERN Document Server

    Cardwell, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    Written in an easy-to-follow approach using hands-on examples, this book helps you create virtual environments for advanced penetration testing, enabling you to build a multi-layered architecture to include firewalls, IDS/IPS, web application firewalls, and endpoint protection, which is essential in the penetration testing world. If you are a penetration tester, security consultant, security test engineer, or analyst who wants to practice and perfect penetration testing skills by building virtual pen testing labs in varying industry scenarios, this is the book for you. This book is ideal if yo

  9. The market penetration of energy-efficiency programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, L.

    1990-04-01

    The focus of this report is on one source of resource planning uncertainty: the expected market penetration of DSM (Demand Site Management) programs. Its purpose is to help refine planning assumptions and reduce uncertainty about the market penetration of utility DSM programs by: (1) investigating concepts and definitions of market penetration, (2) reviewing data that characterize patterns of variation (including ranges, averages and maximum levels) in program participation rates, (3) identifying the factors that affect participation, and (4) reviewing the structure and data requirements of models that forecast market penetration. 84 refs., 14 figs., 16 tabs.

  10. Hacking and penetration testing with low power devices

    CERN Document Server

    Polstra, Philip

    2014-01-01

    Hacking and Penetration Testing with Low Power Devices shows you how to perform penetration tests using small, low-powered devices that are easily hidden and may be battery-powered. It shows how to use an army of devices, costing less than you might spend on a laptop, from distances of a mile or more. Hacking and Penetration Testing with Low Power Devices shows how to use devices running a version of The Deck, a full-featured penetration testing and forensics Linux distribution, and can run for days or weeks on batteries due to their low power consumption. Author Philip Polstra shows how to

  11. Characterization of nuclear reactor containment penetrations. Preliminary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bump, T.R.; Seidensticker, R.W.; Shackelford, M.A.; Gambhir, V.K.; McLennan, G.L.

    1984-06-01

    This report summarizes the survey work conducted by Argonne National Laboratory on the design and details of major penetrations in 22 nuclear power plants. The survey includes all containment types and materials in current use. It also includes details of all types of penetrations (except for electrical penetration assemblies and valves) and the seals and gaskets used in them. The report provides a test matrix for testing major penetrations and for testing seals and gaskets in order to evaluate their leakage potential under severe accident conditions

  12. Prevention of serious impurity penetration into water-steam circuits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgmann, F.; Bursik, A.; Flunkert, F.; Nieder, R.

    1977-01-01

    In consequence of reports from several power Plants concerning heavy damages due to penetrations of impurities into the water-steam circuit, the VGB Sub-Committee 'Water Chemistry in Thermal Power Plants' has established a working group to check-up how serious impurity penetration can be avoided. The lecture describes possible danger points. Suitable technical arrangements for the avoidance of penetrations, and possibilities for monitoring will be discussed. Penetration of impurities cannot be avoided with absolute reliability, even when the recommended arrangements and usual monitoring are realized. Additional measures for the protection of water steam circuits will be suggested. (orig.) [de

  13. Quasi-relativistic effects in barrier-penetration processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anchishkin, D.V.

    1991-01-01

    The problem of a particle tunneling through the potential barrier is solved within quasi-relativistic Schroedinger equation. It is shown that the subbarrier relativistic effects give a significant addition to penetration coefficient when some relations between parameters of the barrier and mass of a tunneling particle are satisfied. For instance an account of these effects for penetration of low energy π + -mesons through Coulomb barrier of the 298 U nuclei would give the increasing of penetration coefficient to 30 percent as compared to the nonrelativistic one. Also we give the criteria under which the contribution of the ''under barrier relativism'' to penetration coefficient becomes essential. 3 refs.; 6 figs. (author)

  14. Operating methods to remove the excess of penetrant in surface. Preponderant and characteristic part of water for water washable penetrants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubosc, P.

    1985-01-01

    Penetrant use for quality control, although very well known (nuclear, space industries, offshore platforms) is often poorly practiced. This is largely due to a lack of understanding by the users the way that the different components of the system (penetrants, solvents, emulsifiers, and developers) function. In this talk, we shall explain a particular characteristic that the manufacturers of reputable penetrant seek to build into their water washable penetrants. It is a viscosity curve which has the function of keeping water in a well defined form. We show why the form of the curve is crucial, which reaction between water and penetrant it corresponds to, and we deduce the practical consequences of bringing into play procedures for removing excess penetrant with or without water [fr

  15. Probability of Grounding and Collision Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1996-01-01

    To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents are developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences can be analysed and assessed. The presnt paper outlines a method for evaluation of the probability of ship...

  16. Probability of Grounding and Collision Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1996-01-01

    To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents have to be developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences have to be analyzed and assessed.The present notes outline a method for evaluation of the probability...

  17. Introducing Disjoint and Independent Events in Probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, I. W.; Zwiers, F. W.

    Two central concepts in probability theory are those of independence and mutually exclusive events. This document is intended to provide suggestions to teachers that can be used to equip students with an intuitive, comprehensive understanding of these basic concepts in probability. The first section of the paper delineates mutually exclusive and…

  18. Selected papers on probability and statistics

    CERN Document Server

    2009-01-01

    This volume contains translations of papers that originally appeared in the Japanese journal Sūgaku. The papers range over a variety of topics in probability theory, statistics, and applications. This volume is suitable for graduate students and research mathematicians interested in probability and statistics.

  19. Collective probabilities algorithm for surface hopping calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastida, Adolfo; Cruz, Carlos; Zuniga, Jose; Requena, Alberto

    2003-01-01

    General equations that transition probabilities of the hopping algorithms in surface hopping calculations must obey to assure the equality between the average quantum and classical populations are derived. These equations are solved for two particular cases. In the first it is assumed that probabilities are the same for all trajectories and that the number of hops is kept to a minimum. These assumptions specify the collective probabilities (CP) algorithm, for which the transition probabilities depend on the average populations for all trajectories. In the second case, the probabilities for each trajectory are supposed to be completely independent of the results from the other trajectories. There is, then, a unique solution of the general equations assuring that the transition probabilities are equal to the quantum population of the target state, which is referred to as the independent probabilities (IP) algorithm. The fewest switches (FS) algorithm developed by Tully is accordingly understood as an approximate hopping algorithm which takes elements from the accurate CP and IP solutions. A numerical test of all these hopping algorithms is carried out for a one-dimensional two-state problem with two avoiding crossings which shows the accuracy and computational efficiency of the collective probabilities algorithm proposed, the limitations of the FS algorithm and the similarity between the results offered by the IP algorithm and those obtained with the Ehrenfest method

  20. Examples of Neutrosophic Probability in Physics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu Yuhua

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper re-discusses the problems of the so-called “law of nonconservation of parity” and “accelerating expansion of the universe”, and presents the examples of determining Neutrosophic Probability of the experiment of Chien-Shiung Wu et al in 1957, and determining Neutrosophic Probability of accelerating expansion of the partial universe.