Large-scale regions of antimatter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grobov, A. V.; Rubin, S. G.

2015-01-01

Amodified mechanism of the formation of large-scale antimatter regions is proposed. Antimatter appears owing to fluctuations of a complex scalar field that carries a baryon charge in the inflation era

Large-scale regions of antimatter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grobov, A. V., E-mail: alexey.grobov@gmail.com; Rubin, S. G., E-mail: sgrubin@mephi.ru [National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Russian Federation)

2015-07-15

Amodified mechanism of the formation of large-scale antimatter regions is proposed. Antimatter appears owing to fluctuations of a complex scalar field that carries a baryon charge in the inflation era.

Biogas infrastructure from farm-scale to regional scale, line-pack storage in biogas grids

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hengeveld, Evert Jan

2016-01-01

Biogas infrastructure from farm-scale to regional scale, line-pack storage in biogas grids. The number of local and regional initiatives encouraging the production and use of regional produced energy grows. In these new developments biogas can play a role, as a producer of energy, but also in

Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Matthew; Minobe, Shoshiro; Barreiro, Marcelo; Bordoni, Simona; Kaspi, Yohai; Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira; Keenlyside, Noel; Manzini, Elisa; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Sutton, Rowan; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zolina, Olga

2018-01-01

Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.

Recent Advances in Understanding Large Scale Vapour Explosions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Board, S.J.; Hall, R.W.

1976-01-01

In foundries, violent explosions occur occasionally when molten metal comes into contact with water. If similar explosions can occur with other materials, hazardous situations may arise for example in LNG marine transportation accidents, or in liquid cooled reactor incidents when molten UO 2 contacts water or sodium coolant. Over the last 10 years a large body of experimental data has been obtained on the behaviour of small quantities of hot material in contact with a vaporisable coolant. Such experiments generally give low energy yields, despite producing fine fragmentation of the molten material. These events have been interpreted in terms of a wide range of phenomena such as violent boiling, liquid entrainment, bubble collapse, superheat, surface cracking and many others. Many of these studies have been aimed at understanding the small scale behaviour of the particular materials of interest. However, understanding the nature of the energetic events which were the original cause for concern may also be necessary to give confidence that violent events cannot occur for these materials in large scale situations. More recently, there has been a trend towards larger experiments and some of these have produced explosions of moderately high efficiency. Although occurrence of such large scale explosions can depend rather critically on initial conditions in a way which is not fully understood, there are signs that the interpretation of these events may be more straightforward than that of the single drop experiments. In the last two years several theoretical models for large scale explosions have appeared which attempt a self contained explanation of at least some stages of such high yield events: these have as their common feature a description of how a propagating breakdown of an initially quasi-stable distribution of materials is induced by the pressure and flow field caused by the energy release in adjacent regions. These models have led to the idea that for a full

Understanding Listening Competency: A Systematic Review of Research Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Fontana, Peter C.; Cohen, Steven D.; Wolvin, Andrew D.

2015-01-01

To better understand what constitutes listening competency, we perform a systematic review of listening scales. Our goal was twofold: to determine the most commonly appearing listening traits and to determine if listening scales are similar to one other. As part of our analysis, we identified 53 relevant scales and analyzed the scales…

Wind and Photovoltaic Large-Scale Regional Models for hourly production evaluation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marinelli, Mattia; Maule, Petr; Hahmann, Andrea N.

2015-01-01

This work presents two large-scale regional models used for the evaluation of normalized power output from wind turbines and photovoltaic power plants on a European regional scale. The models give an estimate of renewable production on a regional scale with 1 h resolution, starting from a mesosca...... of the transmission system, especially regarding the cross-border power flows. The tuning of these regional models is done using historical meteorological data acquired on a per-country basis and using publicly available data of installed capacity.......This work presents two large-scale regional models used for the evaluation of normalized power output from wind turbines and photovoltaic power plants on a European regional scale. The models give an estimate of renewable production on a regional scale with 1 h resolution, starting from a mesoscale...

Insight on invasions and resilience derived from spatiotemporal discontinuities of biomass at local and regional scales

Science.gov (United States)

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Criag R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2012-01-01

Understanding the social and ecological consequences of species invasions is complicated by nonlinearities in processes, and differences in process and structure as scale is changed. Here we use discontinuity analyses to investigate nonlinear patterns in the distribution of biomass of an invasive nuisance species that could indicate scale-specific organization. We analyze biomass patterns in the flagellate Gonyostomum semen (Raphidophyta) in 75 boreal lakes during an 11-year period (1997-2007). With simulations using a unimodal null model and cluster analysis, we identified regional groupings of lakes based on their biomass patterns. We evaluated the variability of membership of individual lakes in regional biomass groups. Temporal trends in local and regional discontinuity patterns were analyzed using regressions and correlations with environmental variables that characterize nutrient conditions, acidity status, temperature variability, and water clarity. Regionally, there was a significant increase in the number of biomass groups over time, indicative of an increased number of scales at which algal biomass organizes across lakes. This increased complexity correlated with the invasion history of G. semen and broad-scale environmental change (recovery from acidification). Locally, no consistent patterns of lake membership to regional biomass groups were observed, and correlations with environmental variables were lake specific. The increased complexity of regional biomass patterns suggests that processes that act within or between scales reinforce the presence of G. semen and its potential to develop high-biomass blooms in boreal lakes. Emergent regional patterns combined with locally stochastic dynamics suggest a bleak future for managing G. semen, and more generally why invasive species can be ecologically successful.

Understanding the Patterns and Drivers of Air Pollution on Multiple Time Scales: The Case of Northern China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yupeng; Wu, Jianguo; Yu, Deyong; Hao, Ruifang

2018-06-01

China's rapid economic growth during the past three decades has resulted in a number of environmental problems, including the deterioration of air quality. It is necessary to better understand how the spatial pattern of air pollutants varies with time scales and what drive these changes. To address these questions, this study focused on one of the most heavily air-polluted areas in North China. We first quantified the spatial pattern of air pollution, and then systematically examined the relationships of air pollution to several socioeconomic and climatic factors using the constraint line method, correlation analysis, and stepwise regression on decadal, annual, and seasonal scales. Our results indicate that PM2.5 was the dominant air pollutant in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while PM2.5 and PM10 were both important pollutants in the Agro-pastoral Transitional Zone (APTZ) region. Our statistical analyses suggest that energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) in the industry were the most important factors for air pollution on the decadal scale, but the impacts of climatic factors could also be significant. On the annual and seasonal scales, high wind speed, low relative humidity, and long sunshine duration constrained PM2.5 accumulation; low wind speed and high relative humidity constrained PM10 accumulation; and short sunshine duration and high wind speed constrained O3 accumulation. Our study showed that analyses on multiple temporal scales are not only necessary to determine key drivers of air pollution, but also insightful for understanding the spatial patterns of air pollution, which was important for urban planning and air pollution control.

Regionalization of meso-scale physically based nitrogen modeling outputs to the macro-scale by the use of regression trees

Science.gov (United States)

Künne, A.; Fink, M.; Kipka, H.; Krause, P.; Flügel, W.-A.

2012-06-01

In this paper, a method is presented to estimate excess nitrogen on large scales considering single field processes. The approach was implemented by using the physically based model J2000-S to simulate the nitrogen balance as well as the hydrological dynamics within meso-scale test catchments. The model input data, the parameterization, the results and a detailed system understanding were used to generate the regression tree models with GUIDE (Loh, 2002). For each landscape type in the federal state of Thuringia a regression tree was calibrated and validated using the model data and results of excess nitrogen from the test catchments. Hydrological parameters such as precipitation and evapotranspiration were also used to predict excess nitrogen by the regression tree model. Hence they had to be calculated and regionalized as well for the state of Thuringia. Here the model J2000g was used to simulate the water balance on the macro scale. With the regression trees the excess nitrogen was regionalized for each landscape type of Thuringia. The approach allows calculating the potential nitrogen input into the streams of the drainage area. The results show that the applied methodology was able to transfer the detailed model results of the meso-scale catchments to the entire state of Thuringia by low computing time without losing the detailed knowledge from the nitrogen transport modeling. This was validated with modeling results from Fink (2004) in a catchment lying in the regionalization area. The regionalized and modeled excess nitrogen correspond with 94%. The study was conducted within the framework of a project in collaboration with the Thuringian Environmental Ministry, whose overall aim was to assess the effect of agro-environmental measures regarding load reduction in the water bodies of Thuringia to fulfill the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (Bäse et al., 2007; Fink, 2006; Fink et al., 2007).

Pertinent spatio-temporal scale of observation to understand suspended sediment yield control factors in the Andean region: the case of the Santa River (Peru)

Science.gov (United States)

Morera, S. B.; Condom, T.; Vauchel, P.; Guyot, J.-L.; Galvez, C.; Crave, A.

2013-11-01

Hydro-sedimentology development is a great challenge in Peru due to limited data as well as sparse and confidential information. This study aimed to quantify and to understand the suspended sediment yield from the west-central Andes Mountains and to identify the main erosion-control factors and their relevance. The Tablachaca River (3132 km2) and the Santa River (6815 km2), located in two adjacent Andes catchments, showed similar statistical daily rainfall and discharge variability but large differences in specific suspended-sediment yield (SSY). In order to investigate the main erosion factors, daily water discharge and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) datasets of the Santa and Tablachaca rivers were analysed. Mining activity in specific lithologies was identified as the major factor that controls the high SSY of the Tablachaca (2204 t km2 yr-1), which is four times greater than the Santa's SSY. These results show that the analysis of control factors of regional SSY at the Andes scale should be done carefully. Indeed, spatial data at kilometric scale and also daily water discharge and SSC time series are needed to define the main erosion factors along the entire Andean range.

Energy transitions in small-scale regions – What we can learn from a regional innovation systems perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mattes, Jannika; Huber, Andreas; Koehrsen, Jens

2015-01-01

The prevalent theories in the debate on sustainability transitions have been criticised for not sufficiently addressing energy change processes at the local level. This paper aims to enhance our understanding of local energy reorganisation processes. Drawing on the Regional Innovation Systems (RIS) approach, we argue that local development dynamics result from the interaction of various subsystems: science, politics, public administration, industry, finance, intermediaries and civil society. The analysis of the involved subsystems and their interaction shows how energy transitions are shaped by different individual and organisational actors as well as institutions on the local level. Empirical evidence from case studies on the German cities of Emden and Bottrop illustrates our theoretical conceptualisation of energy transitions. We conclude by presenting characteristic interaction patterns for energy transition drawn from the two cases. - Highlights: • We highlight the importance of spatial and regional aspects for transitions. • We draw upon regional innovation systems’ subsystems to describe energy transitions. • We show how actors and institutions interact in and coordinate transition processes. • We present evidence from two small-scale regions in Germany: Emden and Bottrop

Size Scaling in Western North Atlantic Loggerhead Turtles Permits Extrapolation between Regions, but Not Life Stages.

Science.gov (United States)

Marn, Nina; Klanjscek, Tin; Stokes, Lesley; Jusup, Marko

2015-01-01

Sea turtles face threats globally and are protected by national and international laws. Allometry and scaling models greatly aid sea turtle conservation and research, and help to better understand the biology of sea turtles. Scaling, however, may differ between regions and/or life stages. We analyze differences between (i) two different regional subsets and (ii) three different life stage subsets of the western North Atlantic loggerhead turtles by comparing the relative growth of body width and depth in relation to body length, and discuss the implications. Results suggest that the differences between scaling relationships of different regional subsets are negligible, and models fitted on data from one region of the western North Atlantic can safely be used on data for the same life stage from another North Atlantic region. On the other hand, using models fitted on data for one life stage to describe other life stages is not recommended if accuracy is of paramount importance. In particular, young loggerhead turtles that have not recruited to neritic habitats should be studied and modeled separately whenever practical, while neritic juveniles and adults can be modeled together as one group. Even though morphometric scaling varies among life stages, a common model for all life stages can be used as a general description of scaling, and assuming isometric growth as a simplification is justified. In addition to linear models traditionally used for scaling on log-log axes, we test the performance of a saturating (curvilinear) model. The saturating model is statistically preferred in some cases, but the accuracy gained by the saturating model is marginal.

Top-down constraints on disturbance dynamics in the terrestrial carbon cycle: effects at global and regional scales

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.

2014-01-01

Large uncertainties preside over terrestrial carbon flux estimates on a global scale. In particular, the strongly coupled dynamics between net ecosystem productivity and disturbance C losses are poorly constrained. To gain an improved understanding of ecosystem C dynamics from regional to global

Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

2018-01-01

The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

The Politics of Scale, Position, and Place in the Governance of Water Resources in the Mekong Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Louis Lebel

2005-12-01

Full Text Available The appropriate scales for science, management, and decision making cannot be unambiguously derived from physical characteristics of water resources. Scales are a joint product of social and biophysical processes. The politics-of-scale metaphor has been helpful in drawing attention to the ways in which scale choices are constrained overtly by politics, and more subtly by choices of technologies, institutional designs, and measurements. In doing so, however, the scale metaphor has been stretched to cover a lot of different spatial relationships. In this paper, we argue that there are benefits to understanding - and actions to distinguish - issues of scale from those of place and position. We illustrate our arguments with examples from the governance of water resources in the Mekong region, where key scientific information is often limited to a few sources. Acknowledging how actors' interests fit along various spatial, temporal, jurisdictional, and other social scales helps make the case for innovative and more inclusive means for bringing multi-level interests to a common forum. Deliberation can provide a check on the extent of shared understanding and key uncertainties.

Wintertime westward-traveling planetary-scale perturbations over the Euro-Atlantic region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Doblas-Reyes, F.J. [Centro de Astrobiologia, INTA, Madrid (Spain); Pastor, M.A.; Casado, M.J. [Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain); Deque, M. [CNRM, Meteo-France, Toulouse (France)

2001-07-01

The features of the wintertime westward-traveling planetary scale perturbations over the Euro-Atlantic region are examined through the use of space-time spectral analysis applied to the 500 hPa geopotential height field. The intention is to understand the nature of these phenomena and the performance of climate models. Data from both ECMWF re-analyses and a simulation from the ARPEGE general circulation model are used. Westward-traveling planetary scale transients are found over the region as local perturbations resembling Rossby normal modes, with a maximum power over the Eastern Atlantic. The westward-traveling planetary scale transients north of 40 {sup circle} N have periods larger than 20 days. South of this latitude, wave periods are shifted to a band around 10 days, so that they can be related to subtropical transient waves. The atmospheric model used, like other models which exhibit reasonable mean climatic properties, tend to have less overall intraseasonal variability than observed. Nevertheless, the model is able to capture most of the features of the westward-traveling low-frequency transients. The differences in basic state, partially produced by scale interactions, would lead to the generation of westward-traveling waves in the model distinct from the observed. However, it is suggested that the improvement of the present model version with regard to previous model versions is due to a better simulation of the time-mean state. The reasonable simulation of the synoptic-scale variability south of 50 {sup circle} N, and thus of its barotropic forcing on the basic state, may also help to explain the realistic westward-traveling transients in the model. (orig.)

What Shapes the Phylogenetic Structure of Anuran Communities in a Seasonal Environment? The Influence of Determinism at Regional Scale to Stochasticity or Antagonistic Forces at Local Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Martins, Clarissa de Araújo; Roque, Fabio de Oliveira; Santos, Bráulio A; Ferreira, Vanda Lúcia; Strüssmann, Christine; Tomas, Walfrido Moraes

2015-01-01

Ecological communities are structured by both deterministic and stochastic processes. We investigated phylogenetic patterns at regional and local scales to understand the influences of seasonal processes in shaping the structure of anuran communities in the southern Pantanal wetland, Brazil. We assessed the phylogenetic structure at different scales, using the Net Relatedness Index (NRI), the Nearest Taxon Index (NTI), and phylobetadiversity indexes, as well as a permutation test, to evaluate the effect of seasonality. The anuran community was represented by a non-random set of species with a high degree of phylogenetic relatedness at the regional scale. However, at the local scale the phylogenetic structure of the community was weakly related with the seasonality of the system, indicating that oriented stochastic processes (e.g. colonization, extinction and ecological drift) and/or antagonist forces drive the structure of such communities in the southern Pantanal.

Size Scaling in Western North Atlantic Loggerhead Turtles Permits Extrapolation between Regions, but Not Life Stages.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nina Marn

Full Text Available Sea turtles face threats globally and are protected by national and international laws. Allometry and scaling models greatly aid sea turtle conservation and research, and help to better understand the biology of sea turtles. Scaling, however, may differ between regions and/or life stages. We analyze differences between (i two different regional subsets and (ii three different life stage subsets of the western North Atlantic loggerhead turtles by comparing the relative growth of body width and depth in relation to body length, and discuss the implications.Results suggest that the differences between scaling relationships of different regional subsets are negligible, and models fitted on data from one region of the western North Atlantic can safely be used on data for the same life stage from another North Atlantic region. On the other hand, using models fitted on data for one life stage to describe other life stages is not recommended if accuracy is of paramount importance. In particular, young loggerhead turtles that have not recruited to neritic habitats should be studied and modeled separately whenever practical, while neritic juveniles and adults can be modeled together as one group. Even though morphometric scaling varies among life stages, a common model for all life stages can be used as a general description of scaling, and assuming isometric growth as a simplification is justified. In addition to linear models traditionally used for scaling on log-log axes, we test the performance of a saturating (curvilinear model. The saturating model is statistically preferred in some cases, but the accuracy gained by the saturating model is marginal.

Multi-scale Regions from Edge Fragments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kazmi, Wajahat; Andersen, Hans Jørgen

2014-01-01

In this article we introduce a novel method for detecting multi-scale salient regions around edges using a graph based image compression algorithm. Images are recursively decomposed into triangles arranged into a binary tree using linear interpolation. The entropy of any local region of the image......), their performance is comparable to SIFT (Lowe, 2004).We also show that when they are used together with MSERs (Matas et al., 2002), the performance of MSERs is boosted....

Taking the pulse of a continent: Expanding site-based research infrastructure for regional- to continental-scale ecology

Science.gov (United States)

Many of the most dramatic and surprising effects of global change on ecological systems will occur across large spatial extents, from regions to continents. Multiple ecosystem types will be impacted across a range of interacting spatial and temporal scales. The ability of ecologists to understand an...

Exotic Fish in Exotic Plantations: A Multi-Scale Approach to Understand Amphibian Occurrence in the Mediterranean Region.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joana Cruz

Full Text Available Globally, amphibian populations are threatened by a diverse range of factors including habitat destruction and alteration. Forestry practices have been linked with low diversity and abundance of amphibians. The effect of exotic Eucalyptus spp. plantations on amphibian communities has been studied in a number of biodiversity hotspots, but little is known of its impact in the Mediterranean region. Here, we identify the environmental factors influencing the presence of six species of amphibians (the Caudata Pleurodeles waltl, Salamandra salamandra, Lissotriton boscai, Triturus marmoratus and the anurans Pelobates cultripes and Hyla arborea/meridionalis occupying 88 ponds. The study was conducted in a Mediterranean landscape dominated by eucalypt plantations alternated with traditional use (agricultural, montados and native forest at three different scales: local (pond, intermediate (400 metres radius buffer and broad (1000 metres radius buffer. Using the Akaike Information Criterion for small samples (AICc, we selected the top-ranked models for estimating the probability of occurrence of each species at each spatial scale separately and across all three spatial scales, using a combination of covariates from the different magnitudes. Models with a combination of covariates at the different spatial scales had a stronger support than those at individual scales. The presence of predatory fish in a pond had a strong effect on Caudata presence. Permanent ponds were selected by Hyla arborea/meridionalis over temporary ponds. Species occurrence was not increased by a higher density of streams, but the density of ponds impacted negatively on Lissotriton boscai. The proximity of ponds occupied by their conspecifics had a positive effect on the occurrence of Lissotriton boscai and Pleurodeles waltl. Eucalypt plantations had a negative effect on the occurrence of the newt Lissotriton boscai and anurans Hyla arborea/meridionalis, but had a positive effect on

Negative Symptom Dimensions of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale Across Geographical Regions: Implications for Social, Linguistic, and Cultural Consistency.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Anzalee; Liharska, Lora; Harvey, Philip D; Atkins, Alexandra; Ulshen, Daniel; Keefe, Richard S E

2017-12-01

Objective: Recognizing the discrete dimensions that underlie negative symptoms in schizophrenia and how these dimensions are understood across localities might result in better understanding and treatment of these symptoms. To this end, the objectives of this study were to 1) identify the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale negative symptom dimensions of expressive deficits and experiential deficits and 2) analyze performance on these dimensions over 15 geographical regions to determine whether the items defining them manifest similar reliability across these regions. Design: Data were obtained for the baseline Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale visits of 6,889 subjects across 15 geographical regions. Using confirmatory factor analysis, we examined whether a two-factor negative symptom structure that is found in schizophrenia (experiential deficits and expressive deficits) would be replicated in our sample, and using differential item functioning, we tested the degree to which specific items from each negative symptom subfactor performed across geographical regions in comparison with the United States. Results: The two-factor negative symptom solution was replicated in this sample. Most geographical regions showed moderate-to-large differential item functioning for Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale expressive deficit items, especially N3 Poor Rapport, as compared with Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale experiential deficit items, showing that these items might be interpreted or scored differently in different regions. Across countries, except for India, the differential item functioning values did not favor raters in the United States. Conclusion: These results suggest that the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale negative symptom factor can be better represented by a two-factor model than by a single-factor model. Additionally, the results show significant differences in responses to items representing the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale expressive

Local magnitude scale for Valle Medio del Magdalena region, Colombia

Science.gov (United States)

Londoño, John Makario; Romero, Jaime A.

2017-12-01

A local Magnitude (ML) scale for Valle Medio del Magdalena (VMM) region was defined by using 514 high quality earthquakes located at VMM area and inversion of 2797 amplitude values of horizontal components of 17 stations seismic broad band stations, simulated in a Wood-Anderson seismograph. The derived local magnitude scale for VMM region was: ML =log(A) + 1.3744 ∗ log(r) + 0.0014776 ∗ r - 2.397 + S Where A is the zero-to-peak amplitude in nm in horizontal components, r is the hypocentral distance in km, and S is the station correction. Higher values of ML were obtained for VMM region compared with those obtained with the current formula used for ML determination, and with California formula. With this new scale ML values are adjusted to local conditions beneath VMM region leading to more realistic ML values. Moreover, with this new ML scale the seismicity caused by tectonic or fracking activity at VMM region can be monitored more accurately.

Large-Scale Covariability Between Aerosol and Precipitation Over the 7-SEAS Region: Observations and Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jingfeng; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee; Zhang, Chidong; Jeong, Myeong Jae; Gautam, Ritesh; Bettenhausen, Corey; Sayer, Andrew M.; Hansell, Richard A.; Liu, Xiaohong;

Long-term regional and sub-regional scale groundwater flow within an irregularly fractured Canadian shield setting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sykes, J.F.; Sudicky, E.A.; Normani, S.D.; McLaren, R.G.; Jensen, M.R.

2006-01-01

As part of Ontario Power Generation's Deep Geologic Repository Technology Program (DGRTP), activities have been undertaken to further the understanding of groundwater flow system evolution and dynamics within a Canadian Shield setting. This paper describes a numerical case study in which the evolution and nature of groundwater flow, as relevant to the siting and safety of a hypothetical Deep Geologic Repository (DGR) for used nuclear fuel, is explored within representative regional (∼5734 km 2 ) and sub-regional (∼83 km 2 ) Shield watersheds. The modelling strategy adopted a GIS framework that included a digital elevation model and surface hydrologic features such as rivers, lakes and wetlands. Model boundary conditions were extracted through GIS automation such that the 3-dimensional characteristics of surface relief, surface water features, in addition to, pore fluid salinities and spatially variable permeability fields could be explicitly incorporated. Further flow system detail has been incorporated in sub-regional simulations with the inclusion of an irregular curve-planar Fracture Network Model traceable to site-specific geologic attributes. Interim modelling results reveal that deep-seated regional flow systems do evolve with groundwater divides within the shallow (<300 m) flow system defined by local scale topography, in particular, major rivers and their tributaries. Within the realizations considered groundwater flow at depths of ∼700 m or more was determined to be essentially stagnant and likely diffusion dominated. The role of fracture zone interconnectivity, depth dependent salinity and spatially variable permeability distributions on flow system response to past glacial events is examined. In demonstrating a case for groundwater flow system stability it is evident that predictive modelling approaches that cannot preserve the 3-dimensional complexity of the watershed-scale groundwater flow system may lead to conclusions that are implausible

Understanding Large-scale Structure in the SSA22 Protocluster Region Using Cosmological Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Topping, Michael W.; Shapley, Alice E.; Steidel, Charles C.; Naoz, Smadar; Primack, Joel R.

2018-01-01

We investigate the nature and evolution of large-scale structure within the SSA22 protocluster region at z = 3.09 using cosmological simulations. A redshift histogram constructed from current spectroscopic observations of the SSA22 protocluster reveals two separate peaks at z = 3.065 (blue) and z = 3.095 (red). Based on these data, we report updated overdensity and mass calculations for the SSA22 protocluster. We find {δ }b,{gal}=4.8+/- 1.8 and {δ }r,{gal}=9.5+/- 2.0 for the blue and red peaks, respectively, and {δ }t,{gal}=7.6+/- 1.4 for the entire region. These overdensities correspond to masses of {M}b=(0.76+/- 0.17)× {10}15{h}-1 {M}ȯ , {M}r=(2.15+/- 0.32)× {10}15{h}-1 {M}ȯ , and {M}t=(3.19+/- 0.40)× {10}15{h}-1 {M}ȯ for the red, blue, and total peaks, respectively. We use the Small MultiDark Planck (SMDPL) simulation to identify comparably massive z∼ 3 protoclusters, and uncover the underlying structure and ultimate fate of the SSA22 protocluster. For this analysis, we construct mock redshift histograms for each simulated z∼ 3 protocluster, quantitatively comparing them with the observed SSA22 data. We find that the observed double-peaked structure in the SSA22 redshift histogram corresponds not to a single coalescing cluster, but rather the proximity of a ∼ {10}15{h}-1 {M}ȯ protocluster and at least one > {10}14{h}-1 {M}ȯ cluster progenitor. Such associations in the SMDPL simulation are easily understood within the framework of hierarchical clustering of dark matter halos. We finally find that the opportunity to observe such a phenomenon is incredibly rare, with an occurrence rate of 7.4{h}3 {{{Gpc}}}-3. Based on data obtained at the W.M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and was made possible by the generous financial support of the W.M. Keck Foundation.

Geographical Pattern and Environmental Correlates of Regional-Scale General Flowering in Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Numata, Shinya; Yasuda, Masatoshi; Suzuki, Ryo O.; Hosaka, Tetsuro; Noor, Nur Supardi Md.; Fletcher, Christine D.; Hashim, Mazlan

2013-01-01

In South-East Asian dipterocarp forests, many trees synchronize their reproduction at the community level, but irregularly, in a phenomenon known as general flowering (GF). Several proximate cues have been proposed as triggers for the synchronization of Southeast Asian GF, but the debate continues, as many studies have not considered geographical variation in climate and flora. We hypothesized that the spatial pattern of GF forests is explained by previously proposed climatic cues if there are common cues for GF among regions. During the study, GF episodes occurred every year, but the spatial occurrence varied considerably from just a few forests to the whole of Peninsular Malaysia. In 2001, 2002 and 2005, minor and major GF occurred widely throughout Peninsular Malaysia (GF2001, GF2002, and GF2005), and the geographical patterns of GF varied between the episodes. In the three regional-scale GF episodes, most major events occurred in regions where prolonged drought (PD) had been recorded prior, and significant associations between GF scores and PD were found in GF2001 and GF2002. However, the frequency of PD was higher than that of GF throughout the peninsula. In contrast, low temperature (LT) was observed during the study period only before GF2002 and GF2005, but there was no clear spatial relationship between GF and LT in the regional-scale episodes. There was also no evidence that last GF condition influenced the magnitude of GF. Thus, our results suggest that PD would be essential to trigger regional-scale GF in the peninsula, but also that PD does not fully explain the spatial and temporal patterns of GF. The coarse relationships between GF and the proposed climatic cues may be due to the geographical variation in proximate cues for GF, and the climatic and floristic geographical variations should be considered to understand the proximate factors of GF. PMID:24260159

How can hydrological modeling help to understand process dynamics in sparsely gauged tropical regions - case study Mata Âtlantica, Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Künne, Annika; Penedo, Santiago; Schuler, Azeneth; Bardy Prado, Rachel; Kralisch, Sven; Flügel, Wolfgang-Albert

2015-04-01

To ensure long-term water security for domestic, agricultural and industrial use in the emerging country of Brazil with fast-growing markets and technologies, understanding of catchment hydrology is essential. Yet, hydrological analysis, high resolution temporal and spatial monitoring and reliable meteo-hydrological data are insufficient to fully understand hydrological processes in the region and to predict future trends. Physically based hydrological modeling can help to expose uncertainties of measured data, predict future trends and contribute to physical understanding about the watershed. The Brazilian Atlantic rainforest (Mata Atlântica) is one of the world's biodiversity hotspots. After the Portuguese colonization, its original expansion of 1.5 million km² was reduced to only 7% of the former area. Due to forest fragmentation, overexploitation and soil degradation, pressure on water resources in the region has significantly increased. Climatically, the region possesses distinctive wet and dry periods. While extreme precipitation events in the rainy season cause floods and landslides, dry periods can lead to water shortages, especially in the agricultural and domestic supply sectors. To ensure both, the protection of the remnants of Atlantic rainforest biome as well as water supply, a hydrological understanding of this sparsely gauged region is essential. We will present hydrological models of two meso- to large-scale catchments (Rio Macacu and Rio Dois Rios) within the Mata Âtlantica in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The results show how physically based models can contribute to hydrological system understanding within the region and answer what-if scenarios, supporting regional planners and decision makers in integrated water resources management.

A regional distributed hydrological modelling approach for flash-flood understanding and experimental design

Science.gov (United States)

Braud, Isabelle; Anquetin, Sandrine; Roux, Hélène; Vannier, Olivier; Maubourguet, Marie-Madeleine; Viallet, Pierre; Boudevillain, Brice; Dartus, Denis; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

2010-05-01

Flash floods represent the most destructive natural hazard in the Mediterranean region, causing around one billion Euros worth of damage in France over the last two decades. Flash floods are associated with extreme and rare rainfall events and usually occur in ungauged river basins. Amongst them, small-ungauged catchments are recognized as the most vulnerable to storm driven flash floods. In order to limit the damages to the population, there is a need to improve our understanding and the simulation tools for these events. In order to provide information over a whole region, hydrological models applicable at this scale, and able to take into account the spatial variability of rainfall and catchment characteristics, must be proposed. This paper presents such a regional distributed approach applied to the 8-9 September 2002 extreme event which affected the Gard region in the south-east of France. In order to identify the variables and catchment characteristics which require improved knowledge, two distributed hydrological models were set up on a set of catchments, with sizes ranging from 2.5 to 99 km2. The models differ in terms of spatial discretization and process representation. They were forced using radar data with a 1 km2 spatial resolution and 5 min time step. The model parameters were specified using the available information, namely a digital terrain model and a soil data base. The latter provides information about soil texture, soil porosity and soil depths. Soil hydraulic properties were defined using pedo-transfer functions. Data from a post-flood field survey of maximum peak discharge were used to assess the quality of the simulations. A reasonable agreement between modeled and observed values was obtained. Sensitivity studies were then performed to asses the respective impact of rainfall estimation and soil variability on the simulated discharge. The analysis shows that rainfall remains the first controlling factor of flash flood dynamics and that high

Understanding bulk behavior of particulate materials from particle scale simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Xiaoliang

least, numerical simulations, along with theoretical analysis, are performed to investigate the interparticle force of dry coated particles. A model is derived and can be used to predict the probabilities of hose-host (HH), host-guest (HG), and guest-guest (GG) contacts. The results indicate that there are three different regions dominated by HH, HG, and GG contacts, respectively. Moreover, the critical SAC for the transition of HG to GG contacts is lower than previously estimated value. In summary, particle packing, particle dynamics associated with various particle processing devices, and interparticle force of dry coated particles are investigated in this thesis. The results show that particle scale information such as coordination number, collision dynamics, and contact force between particles from simulation results can help better understand bulk properties of assembly of individual particles.

Surface temperature and evapotranspiration: application of local scale methods to regional scales using satellite data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seguin, B.; Courault, D.; Guerif, M.

1994-01-01

Remotely sensed surface temperatures have proven useful for monitoring evapotranspiration (ET) rates and crop water use because of their direct relationship with sensible and latent energy exchange processes. Procedures for using the thermal infrared (IR) obtained with hand-held radiometers deployed at ground level are now well established and even routine for many agricultural research and management purposes. The availability of IR from meteorological satellites at scales from 1 km (NOAA-AVHRR) to 5 km (METEOSAT) permits extension of local, ground-based approaches to larger scale crop monitoring programs. Regional observations of surface minus air temperature (i.e., the stress degree day) and remote estimates of daily ET were derived from satellite data over sites in France, the Sahel, and North Africa and summarized here. Results confirm that similar approaches can be applied at local and regional scales despite differences in pixel size and heterogeneity. This article analyzes methods for obtaining these data and outlines the potential utility of satellite data for operational use at the regional scale. (author)

A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, Gordon C.; Dickens, Chris; Hines, Eleanor; Wepener, Victor; Stassen, Retha; Quayle, Leo; Fouchy, Kelly; MacKenzie, James; Graham, P. Mark; Landis, Wayne G.

2018-02-01

Environmental flow (E-flow) frameworks advocate holistic, regional-scale, probabilistic E-flow assessments that consider flow and non-flow drivers of change in a socio-ecological context as best practice. Regional-scale ecological risk assessments of multiple stressors to social and ecological endpoints, which address ecosystem dynamism, have been undertaken internationally at different spatial scales using the relative-risk model since the mid-1990s. With the recent incorporation of Bayesian belief networks into the relative-risk model, a robust regional-scale ecological risk assessment approach is available that can contribute to achieving the best practice recommendations of E-flow frameworks. PROBFLO is a holistic E-flow assessment method that incorporates the relative-risk model and Bayesian belief networks (BN-RRM) into a transparent probabilistic modelling tool that addresses uncertainty explicitly. PROBFLO has been developed to evaluate the socio-ecological consequences of historical, current and future water resource use scenarios and generate E-flow requirements on regional spatial scales. The approach has been implemented in two regional-scale case studies in Africa where its flexibility and functionality has been demonstrated. In both case studies the evidence-based outcomes facilitated informed environmental management decision making, with trade-off considerations in the context of social and ecological aspirations. This paper presents the PROBFLO approach as applied to the Senqu River catchment in Lesotho and further developments and application in the Mara River catchment in Kenya and Tanzania. The 10 BN-RRM procedural steps incorporated in PROBFLO are demonstrated with examples from both case studies. PROBFLO can contribute to the adaptive management of water resources and contribute to the allocation of resources for sustainable use of resources and address protection requirements.

Hybridized Kibble-Zurek scaling in the driven critical dynamics across an overlapping critical region

Science.gov (United States)

Zhai, Liang-Jun; Wang, Huai-Yu; Yin, Shuai

2018-04-01

The conventional Kibble-Zurek scaling describes the scaling behavior in the driven dynamics across a single critical region. In this paper, we study the driven dynamics across an overlapping critical region, in which a critical region (Region A) is overlaid by another critical region (Region B). We develop a hybridized Kibble-Zurek scaling (HKZS) to characterize the scaling behavior in the driven process. According to the HKZS, the driven dynamics in the overlapping region can be described by the critical theories for both Region A and Region B simultaneously. This results in a constraint on the scaling function in the overlapping critical region. We take the quantum Ising chain in an imaginary longitudinal field as an example. In this model, the critical region of the Yang-Lee edge singularity and the critical region of the ferromagnetic-paramagnetic phase transition overlap with each other. We numerically confirm the HKZS by simulating the driven dynamics in this overlapping critical region. The HKZSs in other models are also discussed.

Water Resources Implications of Cellulosic Biofuel Production at a Regional Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Christopher, S. F.; Schoenholtz, S. H.; Nettles, J. E.

2011-12-01

Recent increases in oil prices, a strong national interest in greater energy independence, and a concern for the role of fossil fuels in global climate change, have led to a dramatic expansion in use of alternative renewable energy sources in the U.S. The U.S. government has mandated production of 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2022, of which 16 billion gallons are required to be cellulosic biofuels. Production of cellulosic biomass offers a promising alternative to corn-based systems because large-scale production of corn-based ethanol often requires irrigation and is associated with increased erosion, excess sediment export, and enhanced leaching of nitrogen and phosphorus. Although cultivation of switchgrass using standard agricultural practices is one option being considered for production of cellulosic biomass, intercropping cellulosic biofuel crops within managed forests could provide feedstock without primary land use change or the water quality impacts associated with annual crops. Catchlight Energy LLC is examining the feasibility and sustainability of intercropping switchgrass in loblolly pine plantations in the southeastern U.S. Ongoing research is determining efficient operational techniques and information needed to evaluate effects of these practices on water resources in small watershed-scale (~25 ha) studies. Three sets of four to five sub-watersheds are fully instrumented and currently collecting calibration data in North Carolina, Alabama, and Mississippi. These watershed studies will provide detailed information to understand processes and guide management decisions. However, environmental implications of cellulosic systems need to be examined at a regional scale. We used the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physically-based hydrologic model, to examine water quantity effects of various land use change scenarios ranging from switchgrass intercropping a small percentage of managed pine forest land to conversion of all managed

Aerosol-cloud interactions from urban, regional to global scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Yuan

2015-01-01

The studies in this dissertation aim at advancing our scientific understandings about physical processes involved in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction and quantitatively assessing the impacts of aerosols on the cloud systems with diverse scales over the globe on the basis of the observational data analysis and various modeling studies. As recognized in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change, the magnitude of radiative forcing by atmospheric aerosols is highly uncertain, representing the largest uncertainty in projections of future climate by anthropogenic activities. By using a newly implemented cloud microphysical scheme in the cloud-resolving model, the thesis assesses aerosol-cloud interaction for distinct weather systems, ranging from individual cumulus to mesoscale convective systems. This thesis also introduces a novel hierarchical modeling approach that solves a long outstanding mismatch between simulations by regional weather models and global climate models in the climate modeling community. More importantly, the thesis provides key scientific solutions to several challenging questions in climate science, including the global impacts of the Asian pollution. As scientists wrestle with the complexities of climate change in response to varied anthropogenic forcing, perhaps no problem is more challenging than the understanding of the impacts of atmospheric aerosols from air pollution on clouds and the global circulation.

Aerosol-cloud interactions from urban, regional to global scales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Yuan [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States). Seismological Lab.

2015-10-01

The studies in this dissertation aim at advancing our scientific understandings about physical processes involved in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction and quantitatively assessing the impacts of aerosols on the cloud systems with diverse scales over the globe on the basis of the observational data analysis and various modeling studies. As recognized in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change, the magnitude of radiative forcing by atmospheric aerosols is highly uncertain, representing the largest uncertainty in projections of future climate by anthropogenic activities. By using a newly implemented cloud microphysical scheme in the cloud-resolving model, the thesis assesses aerosol-cloud interaction for distinct weather systems, ranging from individual cumulus to mesoscale convective systems. This thesis also introduces a novel hierarchical modeling approach that solves a long outstanding mismatch between simulations by regional weather models and global climate models in the climate modeling community. More importantly, the thesis provides key scientific solutions to several challenging questions in climate science, including the global impacts of the Asian pollution. As scientists wrestle with the complexities of climate change in response to varied anthropogenic forcing, perhaps no problem is more challenging than the understanding of the impacts of atmospheric aerosols from air pollution on clouds and the global circulation.

Understanding scaling laws

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lysenko, W.P.

1986-01-01

Accelerator scaling laws how they can be generated, and how they are used are discussed. A scaling law is a relation between machine parameters and beam parameters. An alternative point of view is that a scaling law is an imposed relation between the equations of motion and the initial conditions. The relation between the parameters is obtained by requiring the beam to be matched. (A beam is said to be matched if the phase-space distribution function is a function of single-particle invariants of the motion.) Because of this restriction, the number of independent parameters describing the system is reduced. Using simple models for bunched- and unbunched-beam situations. Scaling laws are shown to determine the general behavior of beams in accelerators. Such knowledge is useful in design studies for new machines such as high-brightness linacs. The simple model presented shows much of the same behavior as a more detailed RFQ model

Scaling of theory-of-mind understandings in Chinese children.

Science.gov (United States)

Wellman, Henry M; Fang, Fuxi; Liu, David; Zhu, Liqi; Liu, Guoxiong

2006-12-01

Prior research demonstrates that understanding of theory of mind develops at different paces in children raised in different cultures. Are these differences simply differences in timing, or do they represent different patterns of cultural learning? That is, to what extent are sequences of theory-of-mind understanding universal, and to what extent are they culture-specific? We addressed these questions by using a theory-of-mind scale to examine performance of 140 Chinese children living in Beijing and to compare their performance with that of 135 English-speaking children living in the United States and Australia. Results reveal a common sequence of understanding, as well as sociocultural differences in children's developing theories of mind.

Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Stenni

2017-11-01

Antarctic Peninsula regions, and these trends are robust across the distribution of records that contribute to the unweighted isotopic composites and also significant in the weighted temperature reconstructions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of natural variability over the last 2000 years. However, projected warming of the Antarctic continent during the 21st century may soon see significant and unusual warming develop across other parts of the Antarctic continent. The extended Antarctica2k ice core isotope database developed by this working group opens up many avenues for developing a deeper understanding of the response of Antarctic climate to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. The first long-term quantification of regional climate in Antarctica presented herein is a basis for data–model comparison and assessments of past, present and future driving factors of Antarctic climate.

Scenarios of Earth system change in western Canada: Conceptual understanding and process insights from the Changing Cold Regions Network

Science.gov (United States)

DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Stewart, R. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Baltzer, J. L.; Pietroniro, A.; Marsh, P.; Carey, S.; Howard, A.; Barr, A.; Elshamy, M.

2017-12-01

The interior of western Canada has been experiencing rapid, widespread, and severe hydroclimatic change in recent decades, and this is projected to continue in the future. To better assess future hydrological, cryospheric and ecological states and fluxes under future climates, a regional hydroclimate project was formed under the auspices of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project of the World Climate Research Programme; the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN; www.ccrnetwork.ca) aims to understand, diagnose, and predict interactions among the changing Earth system components at multiple spatial scales over the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River basins of western Canada. A particular challenge is in applying land surface and hydrological models under future climates, as system changes and cold regions process interactions are not often straightforward, and model structures and parameterizations based on historical observations and understanding of contemporary system functioning may not adequately capture these complexities. To address this and provide guidance and direction to the modelling community, CCRN has drawn insights from a multi-disciplinary perspective on the process controls and system trajectories to develop a set of feasible scenarios of change for the 21st century across the region. This presentation will describe CCRN's efforts towards formalizing these insights and applying them in a large-scale modelling context. This will address what are seen as the most critical processes and key drivers affecting hydrological, cryospheric and ecological change, how these will most likely evolve in the coming decades, and how these are parameterized and incorporated as future scenarios for terrestrial ecology, hydrological functioning, permafrost state, glaciers, agriculture, and water management.

High resolution modelling of aerosol dispersion regimes during the CAPITOUL field experiment: from regional to local scale interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Aouizerats

2011-08-01

Full Text Available High resolution simulation of complex aerosol particle evolution and gaseous chemistry over an atmospheric urban area is of great interest for understanding air quality and processes. In this context, the CAPITOUL (Canopy and Aerosol Particle Interactions in the Toulouse Urban Layer field experiment aims at a better understanding of the interactions between the urban dynamics and the aerosol plumes. During a two-day Intensive Observational Period, a numerical model experiment was set up to reproduce the spatial distribution of specific particle pollutants, from the regional scales and the interactions between different cities, to the local scales with specific turbulent structures. Observations show that local dynamics depends on the day-regime, and may lead to different mesoscale dynamical structures. This study focuses on reproducing these fine scale dynamical structures, and investigate the impact on the aerosol plume dispersion. The 500-m resolution simulation manages to reproduce convective rolls at local scale, which concentrate most of the aerosol particles and can locally affect the pollutant dispersion and air quality.

Pressure Scalings and Influence Region Research

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-01

AFRL-RQ-WP-TP-2018-0015 PRESSURE SCALINGS AND INFLUENCE REGION RESEARCH James H. Miller High Speed Systems Division...inside pages STINFO COPY AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY AEROSPACE SYSTEMS DIRECTORATE WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, OH... RESEARCH 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER In-house 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 62201F 6. AUTHOR(S) James H. Miller 5d. PROJECT NUMBER

A REGION-BASED MULTI-SCALE APPROACH FOR OBJECT-BASED IMAGE ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Kavzoglu

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Within the last two decades, object-based image analysis (OBIA considering objects (i.e. groups of pixels instead of pixels has gained popularity and attracted increasing interest. The most important stage of the OBIA is image segmentation that groups spectrally similar adjacent pixels considering not only the spectral features but also spatial and textural features. Although there are several parameters (scale, shape, compactness and band weights to be set by the analyst, scale parameter stands out the most important parameter in segmentation process. Estimating optimal scale parameter is crucially important to increase the classification accuracy that depends on image resolution, image object size and characteristics of the study area. In this study, two scale-selection strategies were implemented in the image segmentation process using pan-sharped Qickbird-2 image. The first strategy estimates optimal scale parameters for the eight sub-regions. For this purpose, the local variance/rate of change (LV-RoC graphs produced by the ESP-2 tool were analysed to determine fine, moderate and coarse scales for each region. In the second strategy, the image was segmented using the three candidate scale values (fine, moderate, coarse determined from the LV-RoC graph calculated for whole image. The nearest neighbour classifier was applied in all segmentation experiments and equal number of pixels was randomly selected to calculate accuracy metrics (overall accuracy and kappa coefficient. Comparison of region-based and image-based segmentation was carried out on the classified images and found that region-based multi-scale OBIA produced significantly more accurate results than image-based single-scale OBIA. The difference in classification accuracy reached to 10% in terms of overall accuracy.

Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Phipps, Steven J.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Davin, Edouard L.; Donat, Markus G.; Hirschi, Martin; Lenton, Andrew; Wilhelm, Micah; Kravitz, Ben

2018-02-01

Greenhouse gas emissions urgently need to be reduced. Even with a step up in mitigation, the goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 °C remains challenging. Consequences of missing these goals are substantial, especially on regional scales. Because progress in the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions has been slow, climate engineering schemes are increasingly being discussed. But global schemes remain controversial and have important shortcomings. A reduction of global mean temperature through global-scale management of solar radiation could lead to strong regional disparities and affect rainfall patterns. On the other hand, active management of land radiative effects on a regional scale represents an alternative option of climate engineering that has been little discussed. Regional land radiative management could help to counteract warming, in particular hot extremes in densely populated and important agricultural regions. Regional land radiative management also raises some ethical issues, and its efficacy would be limited in time and space, depending on crop growing periods and constraints on agricultural management. But through its more regional focus and reliance on tested techniques, regional land radiative management avoids some of the main shortcomings associated with global radiation management. We argue that albedo-related climate benefits of land management should be considered more prominently when assessing regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation as well as ecosystem services.

Toward regional-scale adjoint tomography in the deep earth

Science.gov (United States)

Masson, Y.; Romanowicz, B. A.

2013-12-01

Thanks to the development of efficient numerical computation methods, such as the Spectral Element Method (SEM) and to the increasing power of computer clusters, it is now possible to obtain regional-scale images of the Earth's interior using adjoint-tomography (e.g. Tape, C., et al., 2009). As for now, these tomographic models are limited to the upper layers of the earth, i.e., they provide us with high-resolution images of the crust and the upper part of the mantle. Given the gigantic amount of calculation it represents, obtaing similar models at the global scale (i.e. images of the entire Earth) seems out of reach at the moment. Furthermore, it's likely that the first generation of such global adjoint tomographic models will have a resolution significantly smaller than the current regional models. In order to image regions of interests in the deep Earth, such as plumes, slabs or large low shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs), while keeping the computation tractable, we are developing new tools that will allow us to perform regional-scale adjoint-tomography at arbitrary depths. In a recent study (Masson et al., 2013), we showed that a numerical equivalent of the time reversal mirrors used in experimental acoustics permits to confine the wave propagation computations (i.e. using SEM simulations) inside the region to be imaged. With this ability to limit wave propagation modeling inside a region of interest, obtaining the adjoint sensitivity kernels needed for tomographic imaging is only two steps further. First, the local wavefield modeling needs to be coupled with field extrapolation techniques in order to obtain synthetic seismograms at the surface of the earth. These seismograms will account for the 3D structure inside the region of interest in a quasi-exact manner. We will present preliminary results where the field-extrapolation is performed using Green's function computed in a 1D Earth model thanks to the Direct Solution Method (DSM). Once synthetic seismograms

Modelling cloud effects on ozone on a regional scale : A case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Matthijsen, J.; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Meijer, E.W.; Boersen, G.

1997-01-01

We have investigated the influence of clouds on ozone on a regional scale (Europe) with a regional scale photochemical dispersion model (LOTOS). The LOTOS-model calculates ozone and other photo-oxidant concentrations in the lowest three km of the troposphere, using actual meteorologic data and

Investigation of the large scale regional hydrogeological situation at Ceberg

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boghammar, A.; Grundfelt, B.; Hartley, L.

1997-11-01

The present study forms part of the large-scale groundwater flow studies within the SR 97 project. The site of interest is Ceberg. Within the present study two different regional scale groundwater models have been constructed, one large regional model with an areal extent of about 300 km 2 and one semi-regional model with an areal extent of about 50 km 2 . Different types of boundary conditions have been applied to the models. Topography driven pressures, constant infiltration rates, non-linear infiltration combined specified pressure boundary conditions, and transfer of groundwater pressures from the larger model to the semi-regional model. The present model has shown that: -Groundwater flow paths are mainly local. Large-scale groundwater flow paths are only seen below the depth of the hypothetical repository (below 500 meters) and are very slow. -Locations of recharge and discharge, to and from the site area are in the close vicinity of the site. -The low contrast between major structures and the rock mass means that the factor having the major effect on the flowpaths is the topography. -A sufficiently large model, to incorporate the recharge and discharge areas to the local site is in the order of kilometres. -A uniform infiltration rate boundary condition does not give a good representation of the groundwater movements in the model. -A local site model may be located to cover the site area and a few kilometers of the surrounding region. In order to incorporate all recharge and discharge areas within the site model, the model will be somewhat larger than site scale models at other sites. This is caused by the fact that the discharge areas are divided into three distinct areas to the east, south and west of the site. -Boundary conditions may be supplied to the site model by means of transferring groundwater pressures obtained with the semi-regional model

Integrating regional and continental scale comparisons of tree composition in Amazonian terra firme forests

Science.gov (United States)

Honorio Coronado, E. N.; Baker, T. R.; Phillips, O. L.; Pitman, N. C. A.; Pennington, R. T.; Vásquez Martínez, R.; Monteagudo, A.; Mogollón, H.; Dávila Cardozo, N.; Ríos, M.; García-Villacorta, R.; Valderrama, E.; Ahuite, M.; Huamantupa, I.; Neill, D. A.; Laurance, W. F.; Nascimento, H. E. M.; Soares de Almeida, S.; Killeen, T. J.; Arroyo, L.; Núñez, P.; Freitas Alvarado, L.

2009-01-01

We contrast regional and continental-scale comparisons of the floristic composition of terra firme forest in South Amazonia, using 55 plots across Amazonia and a subset of 30 plots from northern Peru and Ecuador. Firstly, we examine the floristic patterns using both genus- or species-level data and find that the species-level analysis more clearly distinguishes different plot clusters. Secondly, we compare the patterns and causes of floristic differences at regional and continental scales. At a continental scale, ordination analysis shows that species of Lecythidaceae and Sapotaceae are gradually replaced by species of Arecaceae and Myristicaceae from eastern to western Amazonia. These floristic gradients are correlated with gradients in soil fertility and to dry season length, similar to previous studies. At a regional scale, similar patterns are found within north-western Amazonia, where differences in soil fertility distinguish plots where species of Lecythidaceae, characteristic of poor soils, are gradually replaced by species of Myristicaceae on richer soils. The main coordinate of this regional-scale ordination correlates mainly with concentrations of available calcium and magnesium. Thirdly, we ask at a regional scale within north-western Amazonia, whether soil fertility or other distance dependent processes are more important for determining variation in floristic composition. A Mantel test indicates that both soils and geographical distance have a similar and significant role in determining floristic similarity across this region. Overall, these results suggest that regional-scale variation in floristic composition can rival continental scale differences within Amazonian terra firme forests, and that variation in floristic composition at both scales is dependent on a range of processes that include both habitat specialisation related to edaphic conditions and other distance-dependent processes. To fully account for regional scale variation in continental

Understanding large scale groundwater flow in fractured crystalline rocks to aid in repository siting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davison, C.; Brown, A.; Gascoyne, M.; Stevenson, D.; Ophori, D.

2000-01-01

Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) conducted a ten-year long groundwater flow study of a 1050 km 2 region of fractured crystalline rock in southeastern Manitoba to illustrate how an understanding of large scale groundwater flow can be used to assist in selecting a hydraulically favourable location for the deep geological disposal of nuclear fuel waste. The study involved extensive field investigations that included the drilling testing, sampling and monitoring of twenty deep boreholes distributed at detailed study areas across the region. The surface and borehole geotechnical investigations were used to construct a conceptual model of the main litho-structural features that controlled groundwater flow through the crystalline rocks of the region. Eighty-three large fracture zones and other spatial domains of moderately fractured and sparsely fractured rocks were represented in a finite element model of the area to simulate regional groundwater flow. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to match the observed groundwater recharge rate and the hydraulic heads measured in the network of deep boreholes. Particle tracking was used to determine the pathways and travel times from different depths in the velocity field of the calibrated groundwater flow model. The results were used to identify locations in the regional flow field that maximize the time it takes for groundwater to travel to surface discharge areas through long, slow groundwater pathways. One of these locations was chosen as a good hypothetical location for situating a nuclear fuel waste disposal vault at 750 m depth. (authors)

NEREUS- Network of European Regions Using Space - an initiative of regions to spread the use and understanding of space technologies across Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Ayazi, Roya

2013-04-01

contributed substantially to get an idea about the regional situation and existing activities and player. NEREUS wishes to stimulate regional stakeholder to develop space applications in different domains and take measures to participate in European space programs. In this context the dialogue with end-user, in particular local and regional authorities is in the centre. To enhance the exchange between both and bring space uses in concrete administrative dossiers, NEREUS organizes together with its member regions thematic Workshops (WS), e.g. EGNOS/Galileo uses for maritime/marine purposes during which service provider discussed with harbour authorities and the policy and administrative level. The NEREUS-member region Lombardy region started to explore the opportunities of space uses for agriculture and discussed it with different stakeholder. For 2013 three thematic WS are planned (Maritime purposes, Civil Emergencies, Agriculture) with the NEREUS-network community and other partners. The NEREUS CET (Communication, Education and Training) Working Group, one of five NEREUS Working Groups, is another forum of the network that contributes to the spread of knowledge about space and its opportunities also at a broader societal scale. This group is co-chaired by Martina Hilger from Bremen and Michel Bousquet from Midi/P. Stimulating the up-take of space related studies and careers among young people in Europe is an important part for widening the understanding of space uses at citizen level. Only if Europe has a well educated and highly skilled work force will it be possible to exploit the potential of space uses and get the political support from citizen. The CET Working Group was established in 2009 and has since then been an active forum for discussion and exchange. Communicating and networking space related education at universities and other relevant organisations (if appropriate in cooperation with industry) in the NEREUS regions have been in the centre of the activities and

Inferring coastal processes from regional-scale mapping of 222Radon and salinity: examples from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stieglitz, Thomas C.; Cook, Peter G.; Burnett, William C.

2010-01-01

The radon isotope 222 Rn and salinity in coastal surface water were mapped on regional scales, to improve the understanding of coastal processes and their spatial variability. Radon was measured with a surface-towed, continuously recording multi-detector setup on a moving vessel. Numerous processes and locations of land-ocean interaction along the Central Great Barrier Reef coastline were identified and interpreted based on the data collected. These included riverine fluxes, terrestrially-derived fresh submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and the tidal pumping of seawater through mangrove forests. Based on variations in the relationship of the tracers radon and salinity, some aspects of regional freshwater inputs to the coastal zone and to estuaries could be assessed. Concurrent mapping of radon and salinity allowed an efficient qualitative assessment of land-ocean interaction on various spatial and temporal scales, indicating that such surveys on coastal scales can be a useful tool to obtain an overview of SGD locations and processes.

Geopolitics: The Key to Understanding Soviet Regional Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

1987-04-01

Soviet foreign policy. nertnngthis role, CO can begin to build a usable theoretical framwork for analyzing Soviet behavior in, utategiczlly inportant...the writings of the great geopolitical theorists, such as Mackinder, Spykman, and Gray, in developing a conceptual basis for understanding the la-tem...Histary,- British geographer Sir Halford J. mdcinder provided the conceptual framewrk for geopolitical theory by dividing the world into three vast regions

Understanding the Otherness in the Danube Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juliana Popova

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to discuss the attitudes towards the Otherness in the Danube region. A monograph dedicated to the notions about the Otherness in Bulgaria. Theoretical clarification of the nature and types of Otherness in general and finding its expression in the public opinion within the Danube region. The general conclusion drawn in the paper is that the citizens of the Danube countries have different attitudes towards the “own”, indigenous otherness and external, exogenous otherness due to the complicated political situation, linked with the transnational migration. The paper results can serve as a preliminary basis for various studies in the field of ethnicity, gender equality, problems of disadvantaged people, etc. The study will contribute to better understanding of the Otherness as one of the most sensitive problems of the contemporary societies and will shed light on this matter in the Danube countries.

Effects of land use on lake nutrients: The importance of scale, hydrologic connectivity, and region

Science.gov (United States)

Soranno, Patricia A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Wagner, Tyler; Webster, Katherine E.; Bremigan, Mary Tate

2015-01-01

Catchment land uses, particularly agriculture and urban uses, have long been recognized as major drivers of nutrient concentrations in surface waters. However, few simple models have been developed that relate the amount of catchment land use to downstream freshwater nutrients. Nor are existing models applicable to large numbers of freshwaters across broad spatial extents such as regions or continents. This research aims to increase model performance by exploring three factors that affect the relationship between land use and downstream nutrients in freshwater: the spatial extent for measuring land use, hydrologic connectivity, and the regional differences in both the amount of nutrients and effects of land use on them. We quantified the effects of these three factors that relate land use to lake total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) in 346 north temperate lakes in 7 regions in Michigan, USA. We used a linear mixed modeling framework to examine the importance of spatial extent, lake hydrologic class, and region on models with individual lake nutrients as the response variable, and individual land use types as the predictor variables. Our modeling approach was chosen to avoid problems of multi-collinearity among predictor variables and a lack of independence of lakes within regions, both of which are common problems in broad-scale analyses of freshwaters. We found that all three factors influence land use-lake nutrient relationships. The strongest evidence was for the effect of lake hydrologic connectivity, followed by region, and finally, the spatial extent of land use measurements. Incorporating these three factors into relatively simple models of land use effects on lake nutrients should help to improve predictions and understanding of land use-lake nutrient interactions at broad scales.

Displays for promotion of public understanding of geological repository concept and the spatial scale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shobu, Nobuhiro; Kashiwazaki, Hiroshi

2003-05-01

Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institutes (JNC) has a few thousands of short term visitors to Geological Isolation Basic Research Facility of Tokai works in every year. From the viewpoint of promotion of the visitor's understanding and also smooth communication between researchers and visitors, the explanation of the technical information on geological disposal should be carried out in more easily understandable methods, as well as conventional tour to the engineering-scale test facility (ENTRY). This paper reports on the background information and the appearance of displays, which were installed at ENTRY, to promote public understanding of geological repository concept and the spatial scale. They have been practically used as one of the explanation tools to support visitor's understanding. (author)

Hydrologic connectivity and the contribution of stream headwaters to ecological integrity at regional scales

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, Mary C.; Pringle, C.M.; Jackson, C.R.

2007-01-01

Cumulatively, headwater streams contribute to maintaining hydrologic connectivity and ecosystem integrity at regional scales. Hydrologic connectivity is the water-mediated transport of matter, energy and organisms within or between elements of the hydrologic cycle. Headwater streams compose over two-thirds of total stream length in a typical river drainage and directly connect the upland and riparian landscape to the rest of the stream ecosystem. Altering headwater streams, e.g., by channelization, diversion through pipes, impoundment and burial, modifies fluxes between uplands and downstream river segments and eliminates distinctive habitats. The large-scale ecological effects of altering headwaters are amplified by land uses that alter runoff and nutrient loads to streams, and by widespread dam construction on larger rivers (which frequently leaves free-flowing upstream portions of river systems essential to sustaining aquatic biodiversity). We discuss three examples of large-scale consequences of cumulative headwater alteration. Downstream eutrophication and coastal hypoxia result, in part, from agricultural practices that alter headwaters and wetlands while increasing nutrient runoff. Extensive headwater alteration is also expected to lower secondary productivity of river systems by reducing stream-system length and trophic subsidies to downstream river segments, affecting aquatic communities and terrestrial wildlife that utilize aquatic resources. Reduced viability of freshwater biota may occur with cumulative headwater alteration, including for species that occupy a range of stream sizes but for which headwater streams diversify the network of interconnected populations or enhance survival for particular life stages. Developing a more predictive understanding of ecological patterns that may emerge on regional scales as a result of headwater alterations will require studies focused on components and pathways that connect headwaters to river, coastal and

Correspondence of biological condition models of California streams at statewide and regional scales

Science.gov (United States)

May, Jason T.; Brown, Larry R.; Rehn, Andrew C.; Waite, Ian R.; Ode, Peter R; Mazor, Raphael D; Schiff, Kenneth C

2015-01-01

We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model stream biological condition as measured by benthic macroinvertebrate taxonomic completeness, the ratio of observed to expected (O/E) taxa. Models were developed with and without exclusion of rare taxa at a site. BRT models are robust, requiring few assumptions compared with traditional modeling techniques such as multiple linear regression. The BRT models were constructed to provide baseline support to stressor delineation by identifying natural physiographic and human land use gradients affecting stream biological condition statewide and for eight ecological regions within the state, as part of the development of numerical biological objectives for California’s wadeable streams. Regions were defined on the basis of ecological, hydrologic, and jurisdictional factors and roughly corresponded with ecoregions. Physiographic and land use variables were derived from geographic information system coverages. The model for the entire state (n = 1,386) identified a composite measure of anthropogenic disturbance (the sum of urban, agricultural, and unmanaged roadside vegetation land cover) within the local watershed as the most important variable, explaining 56 % of the variance in O/E values. Models for individual regions explained between 51 and 84 % of the variance in O/E values. Measures of human disturbance were important in the three coastal regions. In the South Coast and Coastal Chaparral, local watershed measures of urbanization were the most important variables related to biological condition, while in the North Coast the composite measure of human disturbance at the watershed scale was most important. In the two mountain regions, natural gradients were most important, including slope, precipitation, and temperature. The remaining three regions had relatively small sample sizes (n ≤ 75 sites) and had models that gave mixed results. Understanding the spatial scale at which land use and land cover affect

Impacts of different characterizations of large-scale background on simulated regional-scale ozone over the continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Hogrefe, Christian; Liu, Peng; Pouliot, George; Mathur, Rohit; Roselle, Shawn; Flemming, Johannes; Lin, Meiyun; Park, Rokjin J.

2018-03-01

This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boundary conditions derived from hemispheric or global-scale models. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations supporting this analysis were performed over the continental US for the year 2010 within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP) activities. CMAQ process analysis (PA) results highlight the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection on the ozone burden in the mid-to-upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Vertical mixing, including mixing by convective clouds, couples fluctuations in free-tropospheric ozone to ozone in lower layers. Hypothetical bounding scenarios were performed to quantify the effects of emissions, boundary conditions, and ozone dry deposition on the simulated ozone burden. Analysis of these simulations confirms that the characterization of ozone outside the regional-scale modeling domain can have a profound impact on simulated regional-scale ozone. This was further investigated by using data from four hemispheric or global modeling systems (Chemistry - Integrated Forecasting Model (C-IFS), CMAQ extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ), the Goddard Earth Observing System model coupled to chemistry (GEOS-Chem), and AM3) to derive alternate boundary conditions for the regional-scale CMAQ simulations. The regional-scale CMAQ simulations using these four different boundary conditions showed that the largest ozone abundance in the upper layers was simulated when using boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, followed by the simulations using C-IFS, AM3, and H-CMAQ boundary conditions, consistent with the analysis of the ozone fields

Quantitative regional validation of the visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moeller, Christiane; Benedictus, Marije R.; Koedam, Esther L.G.M.; Scheltens, Philip; Flier, Wiesje M. van der; Versteeg, Adriaan; Wattjes, Mike P.; Barkhof, Frederik; Vrenken, Hugo

2014-01-01

Validate the four-point visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) on magnetic resonance images (MRI) through quantitative grey matter (GM) volumetry and voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to justify its use in clinical practice. Two hundred twenty-nine patients with probable Alzheimer's disease and 128 with subjective memory complaints underwent 3T MRI. PCA was rated according to the visual rating scale. GM volumes of six posterior structures and the total posterior region were extracted using IBASPM and compared among PCA groups. To determine which anatomical regions contributed most to the visual scores, we used binary logistic regression. VBM compared local GM density among groups. Patients were categorised according to their PCA scores: PCA-0 (n = 122), PCA-1 (n = 143), PCA-2 (n = 79), and PCA-3 (n = 13). All structures except the posterior cingulate differed significantly among groups. The inferior parietal gyrus volume discriminated the most between rating scale levels. VBM showed that PCA-1 had a lower GM volume than PCA-0 in the parietal region and other brain regions, whereas between PCA-1 and PCA-2/3 GM atrophy was mostly restricted to posterior regions. The visual PCA rating scale is quantitatively validated and reliably reflects GM atrophy in parietal regions, making it a valuable tool for the daily radiological assessment of dementia. (orig.)

Quantitative regional validation of the visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moeller, Christiane; Benedictus, Marije R.; Koedam, Esther L.G.M.; Scheltens, Philip [VU University Medical Center, Alzheimer Center and Department of Neurology, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Flier, Wiesje M. van der [VU University Medical Center, Alzheimer Center and Department of Neurology, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); VU University Medical Center, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Versteeg, Adriaan; Wattjes, Mike P.; Barkhof, Frederik [VU University Medical Center, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Vrenken, Hugo [VU University Medical Center, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); VU University Medical Center, Department of Physics and Medical Technology, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2014-02-15

Validate the four-point visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) on magnetic resonance images (MRI) through quantitative grey matter (GM) volumetry and voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to justify its use in clinical practice. Two hundred twenty-nine patients with probable Alzheimer's disease and 128 with subjective memory complaints underwent 3T MRI. PCA was rated according to the visual rating scale. GM volumes of six posterior structures and the total posterior region were extracted using IBASPM and compared among PCA groups. To determine which anatomical regions contributed most to the visual scores, we used binary logistic regression. VBM compared local GM density among groups. Patients were categorised according to their PCA scores: PCA-0 (n = 122), PCA-1 (n = 143), PCA-2 (n = 79), and PCA-3 (n = 13). All structures except the posterior cingulate differed significantly among groups. The inferior parietal gyrus volume discriminated the most between rating scale levels. VBM showed that PCA-1 had a lower GM volume than PCA-0 in the parietal region and other brain regions, whereas between PCA-1 and PCA-2/3 GM atrophy was mostly restricted to posterior regions. The visual PCA rating scale is quantitatively validated and reliably reflects GM atrophy in parietal regions, making it a valuable tool for the daily radiological assessment of dementia. (orig.)

Regional scales of fire danger rating in the forest: improved technique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. V. Volokitina

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Wildland fires distribute unevenly in time and over area under the influence of weather and other factors. It is unfeasible to air patrol the whole forest area daily during a fire season as well as to keep all fire suppression forces constantly alert. Daily work and preparedness of forest fire protection services is regulated by the level of fire danger according to weather conditions (Nesterov’s index. PV-1 index, fire hazard class (Melekhov’s scale, regional scales (earlier called local scales. Unfortunately, there is still no unified comparable technique of making regional scales. As a result, it is difficult to maneuver forest fire protection resources, since the techniques currently used are not approved and not tested for their performance. They give fire danger rating incomparable even for neighboring regions. The paper analyzes the state-of-the-art in Russia and abroad. It is stated the irony is that with factors of fire danger measured quantitatively, the fire danger itself as a function has no quantitative expression. Thus, selection of an absolute criteria is of high importance for improvement of daily fire danger rating. On the example of the Chunsky forest ranger station (Krasnoyarsk Krai, an improved technique is suggested of making comparable local scales of forest fire danger rating based on an absolute criterion of fire danger rating – a probable density of active fires per million ha. A method and an algorithm are described of automatized local scales of fire danger that should facilitate effective creation of similar scales for any forest ranger station or aviation regional office using a database on forest fires and weather conditions. The information system of distant monitoring by Federal Forestry Agency of Russia is analyzed for its application in making local scales. To supplement the existing weather station net it is suggested that automatic compact weather stations or, if the latter is not possible, simple

Regional CO2 and latent heat surface fluxes in the Southern Great Plains: Measurements, modeling, and scaling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Riley, W. J.; Biraud, S.C.; Torn, M.S.; Fischer, M.L.; Billesbach, D.P.; Berry, J.A.

2009-08-15

Characterizing net ecosystem exchanges (NEE) of CO{sub 2} and sensible and latent heat fluxes in heterogeneous landscapes is difficult, yet critical given expected changes in climate and land use. We report here a measurement and modeling study designed to improve our understanding of surface to atmosphere gas exchanges under very heterogeneous land cover in the mostly agricultural U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP). We combined three years of site-level, eddy covariance measurements in several of the dominant land cover types with regional-scale climate data from the distributed Mesonet stations and Next Generation Weather Radar precipitation measurements to calibrate a land surface model of trace gas and energy exchanges (isotope-enabled land surface model (ISOLSM)). Yearly variations in vegetation cover distributions were estimated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index and compared to regional and subregional vegetation cover type estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture census. We first applied ISOLSM at a 250 m spatial scale to account for vegetation cover type and leaf area variations that occur on hundred meter scales. Because of computational constraints, we developed a subsampling scheme within 10 km 'macrocells' to perform these high-resolution simulations. We estimate that the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility SGP region net CO{sub 2} exchange with the local atmosphere was -240, -340, and -270 gC m{sup -2} yr{sup -1} (positive toward the atmosphere) in 2003, 2004, and 2005, respectively, with large seasonal variations. We also performed simulations using two scaling approaches at resolutions of 10, 30, 60, and 90 km. The scaling approach applied in current land surface models led to regional NEE biases of up to 50 and 20% in weekly and annual estimates, respectively. An important factor in causing these biases was the complex leaf area index (LAI) distribution

Spatial data analysis and integration for regional-scale geothermal potential mapping, West Java, Indonesia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carranza, Emmanuel John M.; Barritt, Sally D. [Department of Earth Systems Analysis, International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Enschede (Netherlands); Wibowo, Hendro; Sumintadireja, Prihadi [Laboratory of Volcanology and Geothermal, Geology Department, Institute of Technology Bandung (ITB), Bandung (Indonesia)

2008-06-15

Conceptual modeling and predictive mapping of potential for geothermal resources at the regional-scale in West Java are supported by analysis of the spatial distribution of geothermal prospects and thermal springs, and their spatial associations with geologic features derived from publicly available regional-scale spatial data sets. Fry analysis shows that geothermal occurrences have regional-scale spatial distributions that are related to Quaternary volcanic centers and shallow earthquake epicenters. Spatial frequency distribution analysis shows that geothermal occurrences have strong positive spatial associations with Quaternary volcanic centers, Quaternary volcanic rocks, quasi-gravity lows, and NE-, NNW-, WNW-trending faults. These geological features, with their strong positive spatial associations with geothermal occurrences, constitute spatial recognition criteria of regional-scale geothermal potential in a study area. Application of data-driven evidential belief functions in GIS-based predictive mapping of regional-scale geothermal potential resulted in delineation of high potential zones occupying 25% of West Java, which is a substantial reduction of the search area for further exploration of geothermal resources. The predicted high potential zones delineate about 53-58% of the training geothermal areas and 94% of the validated geothermal occurrences. The results of this study demonstrate the value of regional-scale geothermal potential mapping in: (a) data-poor situations, such as West Java, and (b) regions with geotectonic environments similar to the study area. (author)

Native American Students' Understanding of Geologic Time Scale: 4th-8th Grade Ojibwe Students' Understanding of Earth's Geologic History

Science.gov (United States)

Nam, Younkyeong; Karahan, Engin; Roehrig, Gillian

2016-01-01

Geologic time scale is a very important concept for understanding long-term earth system events such as climate change. This study examines forty-three 4th-8th grade Native American--particularly Ojibwe tribe--students' understanding of relative ordering and absolute time of Earth's significant geological and biological events. This study also…

Understanding ocean acidification impacts on organismal to ecological scales

Science.gov (United States)

Andersson, Andreas J; Kline, David I; Edmunds, Peter J; Archer, Stephen D; Bednaršek, Nina; Carpenter, Robert C; Chadsey, Meg; Goldstein, Philip; Grottoli, Andrea G.; Hurst, Thomas P; King, Andrew L; Kübler, Janet E.; Kuffner, Ilsa B.; Mackey, Katherine R M; Menge, Bruce A.; Paytan, Adina; Riebesell, Ulf; Schnetzer, Astrid; Warner, Mark E; Zimmerman, Richard C

2015-01-01

Ocean acidification (OA) research seeks to understand how marine ecosystems and global elemental cycles will respond to changes in seawater carbonate chemistry in combination with other environmental perturbations such as warming, eutrophication, and deoxygenation. Here, we discuss the effectiveness and limitations of current research approaches used to address this goal. A diverse combination of approaches is essential to decipher the consequences of OA to marine organisms, communities, and ecosystems. Consequently, the benefits and limitations of each approach must be considered carefully. Major research challenges involve experimentally addressing the effects of OA in the context of large natural variability in seawater carbonate system parameters and other interactive variables, integrating the results from different research approaches, and scaling results across different temporal and spatial scales.

Inferring coastal processes from regional-scale mapping of {sup 222}Radon and salinity: examples from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stieglitz, Thomas C., E-mail: thomas.stieglitz@jcu.edu.a [AIMS-JCU, Townsville (Australia); Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB NO 3, Townsville QLD 4810 (Australia); School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville QLD 4811 (Australia); Cook, Peter G., E-mail: peter.g.cook@csiro.a [CSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 2, Glen Osmond SA 5064 (Australia); Burnett, William C., E-mail: wburnett@mailer.fsu.ed [Department of Oceanography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306 (United States)

2010-07-15

The radon isotope {sup 222}Rn and salinity in coastal surface water were mapped on regional scales, to improve the understanding of coastal processes and their spatial variability. Radon was measured with a surface-towed, continuously recording multi-detector setup on a moving vessel. Numerous processes and locations of land-ocean interaction along the Central Great Barrier Reef coastline were identified and interpreted based on the data collected. These included riverine fluxes, terrestrially-derived fresh submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and the tidal pumping of seawater through mangrove forests. Based on variations in the relationship of the tracers radon and salinity, some aspects of regional freshwater inputs to the coastal zone and to estuaries could be assessed. Concurrent mapping of radon and salinity allowed an efficient qualitative assessment of land-ocean interaction on various spatial and temporal scales, indicating that such surveys on coastal scales can be a useful tool to obtain an overview of SGD locations and processes.

Multi-Scale Analysis of Regional Inequality based on Spatial Field Model: A Case Study of China from 2000 to 2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shasha Lu

2015-10-01

Full Text Available A large body of recent studies—from both inside and outside of China—are devoted to the understanding of China’s regional inequality. The current study introduces “the spatial field model” to achieve comprehensive evaluation and multi-scale analysis of regional inequality. The model is based on the growth pole theory, regional interaction theory, and energy space theory. The spatial field is an abstract concept that defines the potential energy difference that is formed in the process of a regional growth pole driving the economic development of peripheral areas through transportation and communication corridors. The model is able to provide potentially more precise regional inequality estimates and generates isarithmic maps that will provide highly intuitive and visualized presentations. The model is applied to evaluate the spatiotemporal pattern of economic inequality in China from 2000 to 2012 amongst internal eastern-central-western regions as well as north-south regions at three geographical scales—i.e., inter-province, inter-city, and inter-county. The results indicate that the spatial field model could comprehensively evaluate regional inequality, provide aesthetically pleasing and highly adaptable presentations based on a pixel-based raster, and realise the multi-scale analyses of the regional inequality. The paper also investigates the limitations and extensions of the spatial field model in future application.

Multi-scaling allometric analysis for urban and regional development

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yanguang

2017-01-01

The concept of allometric growth is based on scaling relations, and it has been applied to urban and regional analysis for a long time. However, most allometric analyses were devoted to the single proportional relation between two elements of a geographical system. Few researches focus on the allometric scaling of multielements. In this paper, a process of multiscaling allometric analysis is developed for the studies on spatio-temporal evolution of complex systems. By means of linear algebra, general system theory, and by analogy with the analytical hierarchy process, the concepts of allometric growth can be integrated with the ideas from fractal dimension. Thus a new methodology of geo-spatial analysis and the related theoretical models emerge. Based on the least squares regression and matrix operations, a simple algorithm is proposed to solve the multiscaling allometric equation. Applying the analytical method of multielement allometry to Chinese cities and regions yields satisfying results. A conclusion is reached that the multiscaling allometric analysis can be employed to make a comprehensive evaluation for the relative levels of urban and regional development, and explain spatial heterogeneity. The notion of multiscaling allometry may enrich the current theory and methodology of spatial analyses of urban and regional evolution.

Using social-ecological systems theory to evaluate large-scale comanagement efforts: a case study of the Inuvialuit Settlement Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William Tyson

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Comanagement efforts are increasingly tasked with overseeing natural resource governance at a large scale. I examine comanagement of subsistence harvesting in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region (ISR of the western Canadian Arctic, using a social-ecological systems framework. In doing so, this study joins a growing list of research that reviews design principles commonly found in successful small-scale commons management and applies them to a large resource area. This research uses the management of beluga (Delphinapterus leucas and barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus as case studies in understanding the management framework of the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, as each species is important in Inuvialuit culture and is actively managed and monitored. Comanagement bodies in the study area display many of the institutional design principles that are characteristic of successful social-ecological systems. Particularly mentionable are the presence of well-organized nested enterprises and a strong incorporation of local knowledge and monitoring. This supports the application of institutional design principles in large-scale analyses of resource management. However, due to the network of policy and management outside the ISR that influences each species, this research suggests that in cases of wide-ranging resource bases, these types of analyses may be better suited to evaluating broad management networks rather than discrete governing regions.

Validating a continental-scale groundwater diffuse pollution model using regional datasets.

Science.gov (United States)

Ouedraogo, Issoufou; Defourny, Pierre; Vanclooster, Marnik

2017-12-11

In this study, we assess the validity of an African-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrates. In a previous study, we identified a statistical continental-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrate. The model was identified using a pan-African meta-analysis of available nitrate groundwater pollution studies. The model was implemented in both Random Forest (RF) and multiple regression formats. For both approaches, we collected as predictors a comprehensive GIS database of 13 spatial attributes, related to land use, soil type, hydrogeology, topography, climatology, region typology, nitrogen fertiliser application rate, and population density. In this paper, we validate the continental-scale model of groundwater contamination by using a nitrate measurement dataset from three African countries. We discuss the issue of data availability, and quality and scale issues, as challenges in validation. Notwithstanding that the modelling procedure exhibited very good success using a continental-scale dataset (e.g. R 2  = 0.97 in the RF format using a cross-validation approach), the continental-scale model could not be used without recalibration to predict nitrate pollution at the country scale using regional data. In addition, when recalibrating the model using country-scale datasets, the order of model exploratory factors changes. This suggests that the structure and the parameters of a statistical spatially distributed groundwater degradation model for the African continent are strongly scale dependent.

Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

2010-12-14

This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

Study on sandstorm PM10 exposure assessment in the large-scale region: a case study in Inner Mongolia.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hongmei; Lv, Shihai; Diao, Zhaoyan; Wang, Baolu; Zhang, Han; Yu, Caihong

2018-04-12

The current exposure-effect curves describing sandstorm PM 10 exposure and the health effects are drawn roughly by the outdoor concentration (OC), which ignored the exposure levels of people's practical activity sites. The main objective of this work is to develop a novel approach to quantify human PM 10 exposure by their socio-categorized micro-environment activities-time weighed (SCMEATW) in strong sandstorm period, which can be used to assess the exposure profiles in the large-scale region. Types of people's SCMEATW were obtained by questionnaire investigation. Different types of representatives were trackly recorded during the big sandstorm. The average exposure levels were estimated by SCMEATW. Furthermore, the geographic information system (GIS) technique was taken not only to simulate the outdoor concentration spatially but also to create human exposure outlines in a visualized map simultaneously, which could help to understand the risk to different types of people. Additionally, exposure-response curves describing the acute outpatient rate odds by sandstorm were formed by SCMEATW, and the differences between SCMEATW and OC were compared. Results indicated that acute outpatient rate odds had relationships with PM 10 exposure from SCMEATW, with a level less than that of OC. Some types of people, such as herdsmen and those people walking outdoors during a strong sandstorm, have more risk than office men. Our findings provide more understanding of human practical activities on their exposure levels; they especially provide a tool to understand sandstorm PM 10 exposure in large scale spatially, which might help to perform the different categories population's risk assessment regionally.

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

Science.gov (United States)

Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

2016-01-01

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

Dissonance and harmony between global and regional-scale seismic anisotropy and mantle dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, T. W.

2017-12-01

Huge numbers of SKS splitting observations and improved surface-wave based models of azimuthal anisotropy have advanced our understanding of how convection is recorded in mantle fabrics in the upper mantle. However, we are still debating the relative importance of frozen to actively forming olivine fabrics, subduction zone anisotropy lacks a clear reference model, and regional marine studies yield conflicting evidence as to what exactly is going on at the base of the plates and below. Here, I review the degree of agreement between regional and global observations of seismic anisotropy and how well those may be matched by first-order mantle convection models. Updated bean counting can help contextualize the spatial scales of alignment, and I discuss several examples of the relative roles of plate shear to mantle density anomalies and frozen-in structure for oceanic and continental plates. Resolution of seismological models is globally uneven, but there are some locales where such exercises may yield information on the relative strength of asthenosphere and mantle. Another long-standing question is how olivine fabrics record flow under different stress and volatile conditions. I illustrate how different petrological assumptions might be used to reconcile observations of azimuthal dependency of wave speeds for both Love and Rayleigh waves, and how this could improve our models of the upper mantle, much in the spirit of Montagner's vectorial tomography. This is but one approach to improve the regional realism of global geodynamic background models to understand where in space and time dissonance arises, and if a harmonious model may yet be constructed given our assumptions about the workings of the mantle.

A Systematic Multi-Time Scale Solution for Regional Power Grid Operation

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, W. J.; Liu, Z. G.; Cheng, T.; Hu, B. Q.; Liu, X. Z.; Zhou, Y. F.

2017-10-01

Many aspects need to be taken into consideration in a regional grid while making schedule plans. In this paper, a systematic multi-time scale solution for regional power grid operation considering large scale renewable energy integration and Ultra High Voltage (UHV) power transmission is proposed. In the time scale aspect, we discuss the problem from month, week, day-ahead, within-day to day-behind, and the system also contains multiple generator types including thermal units, hydro-plants, wind turbines and pumped storage stations. The 9 subsystems of the scheduling system are described, and their functions and relationships are elaborated. The proposed system has been constructed in a provincial power grid in Central China, and the operation results further verified the effectiveness of the system.

Towards understanding resprouting at the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Pausas, Juli G.; Pratt, R. Brandon; Keeley, Jon E.; Jacobsen, Anna L.; Ramirez, Aaron R.; Vilagrosa, Alberto; Paula, Susana; Kanekua-Pia, Iolana N.; Davis, Stephen D.

2016-01-01

Understanding and predicting plant response to disturbance is of paramount importance in our changing world. Resprouting ability is often considered a simple qualitative trait and used in many ecological studies. Our aim is to show some of the complexities of resprouting while highlighting cautions that need be taken in using resprouting ability to predict vegetation responses across disturbance types and biomes. There are marked differences in resprouting depending on the disturbance type, and fire is often the most severe disturbance because it includes both defoliation and lethal temperatures. In the Mediterranean biome, there are differences in functional strategies to cope with water deficit between resprouters (dehydration avoiders) and nonresprouters (dehydration tolerators); however, there is little research to unambiguously extrapolate these results to other biomes. Furthermore, predictions of vegetation responses to changes in disturbance regimes require consideration not only of resprouting, but also other relevant traits (e.g. seeding, bark thickness) and the different correlations among traits observed in different biomes; models lacking these details would behave poorly at the global scale. Overall, the lessons learned from a given disturbance regime and biome (e.g. crown-fire Mediterranean ecosystems) can guide research in other ecosystems but should not be extrapolated at the global scale.

Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Landis, Wayne G

2005-01-01

...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

Regional scale analysis of the altimetric stream network evolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Ghizzoni

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Floods result from the limited carrying capacity of stream channels when compared to the discharge peak value. The transit of flood waves - with the associated erosion and sedimentation processes - often modifies local stream geometry. In some cases this results in a reduction of the stream carrying capacity, and consequently in an enhancement of the flooding risk. A mathematical model for the prediction of potential altimetric stream network evolution due to erosion and sedimentation processes is here formalized. It works at the regional scale, identifying the tendency of river segments to sedimentation, stability, or erosion. The model builds on geomorphologic concepts, and derives its parameters from extensive surveys. As a case study, tendencies of rivers pertaining to the Valle d'Aosta region are analyzed. Some validation is provided both at regional and local scales of analysis. Local validation is performed both through a mathematical model able to simulate the temporal evolution of the stream profile, and through comparison of the prediction with ante and post-event river surveys, where available. Overall results are strongly encouraging. Possible use of the information derived from the model in the context of flood and landslide hazard mitigation is briefly discussed.

A regional-scale Ocean Health Index for Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Elfes, Cristiane T; Longo, Catherine; Halpern, Benjamin S; Hardy, Darren; Scarborough, Courtney; Best, Benjamin D; Pinheiro, Tiago; Dutra, Guilherme F

2014-01-01

Brazil has one of the largest and fastest growing economies and one of the largest coastlines in the world, making human use and enjoyment of coastal and marine resources of fundamental importance to the country. Integrated assessments of ocean health are needed to understand the condition of a range of benefits that humans derive from marine systems and to evaluate where attention should be focused to improve the health of these systems. Here we describe the first such assessment for Brazil at both national and state levels. We applied the Ocean Health Index framework, which evaluates ten public goals for healthy oceans. Despite refinements of input data and model formulations, the national score of 60 (out of 100) was highly congruent with the previous global assessment for Brazil of 62. Variability in scores among coastal states was most striking for goals related to mariculture, protected areas, tourism, and clean waters. Extractive goals, including Food Provision, received low scores relative to habitat-related goals, such as Biodiversity. This study demonstrates the applicability of the Ocean Health Index at a regional scale, and its usefulness in highlighting existing data and knowledge gaps and identifying key policy and management recommendations. To improve Brazil's ocean health, this study suggests that future actions should focus on: enhancing fisheries management, expanding marine protected areas, and monitoring coastal habitats.

Negative Symptom Dimensions of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale Across Geographical Regions: Implications for Social, Linguistic, and Cultural Consistency

OpenAIRE

Khan, Anzalee; Liharska, Lora; Harvey, Philip D.; Atkins, Alexandra; Ulshen, Daniel; Keefe, Richard S.E.

2017-01-01

Objective: Recognizing the discrete dimensions that underlie negative symptoms in schizophrenia and how these dimensions are understood across localities might result in better understanding and treatment of these symptoms. To this end, the objectives of this study were to 1) identify the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale negative symptom dimensions of expressive deficits and experiential deficits and 2) analyze performance on these dimensions over 15 geographical regions to determine whet...

Landscape-and regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Jacob S. Fraser; William D. Dijak

2016-01-01

Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating at multiple scales. Niche and biophysical process models have been commonly used to predict climate change effects at regional scales, however, these models have limited capability to include site-scale population dynamics and landscape- scale disturbance and dispersal. We applied a landscape...

Copy of Using Emulation and Simulation to Understand the Large-Scale Behavior of the Internet.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adalsteinsson, Helgi; Armstrong, Robert C.; Chiang, Ken; Gentile, Ann C.; Lloyd, Levi; Minnich, Ronald G.; Vanderveen, Keith; Van Randwyk, Jamie A; Rudish, Don W.

2008-10-01

We report on the work done in the late-start LDRDUsing Emulation and Simulation toUnderstand the Large-Scale Behavior of the Internet. We describe the creation of a researchplatform that emulates many thousands of machines to be used for the study of large-scale inter-net behavior. We describe a proof-of-concept simple attack we performed in this environment.We describe the successful capture of a Storm bot and, from the study of the bot and furtherliterature search, establish large-scale aspects we seek to understand via emulation of Storm onour research platform in possible follow-on work. Finally, we discuss possible future work.3

GIS-based approach for potential analysis of solar PV generation at the regional scale: A case study of Fujian Province

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Yan-wei; Hof, Angela; Wang, Run; Liu, Jian; Lin, Yan-jie; Yang, De-wei

2013-01-01

Spatial variation of solar energy is crucial for the estimation of the regional potential and selection of construction location. This paper presents a case study of using high resolution grid map of solar radiation combined with the other restriction factors to evaluate the comprehensive potential analysis of solar PV generation at the regional scale, in order to present a framework of decision support tool for solar energy management in a regional area. The cost of PV generation is calculated based on the geographical distribution of technical potential. Moreover, geospatial supply curve (GSC) is employed to portray the evolution of available potential of photovoltaics (PV) generation with the increase of the generation cost. By integrating the economic evaluation variables of net present value and simple payback period, grid-based economic feasibility of PV generation project is then carried out under two feed-in-tariff scenarios. Finally, total CO 2 reduction potential and its spatial distribution in the study area are calculated. The results confirm that PV technology provides high potential for roof-top application and large-scale PV stations. Additionally, determining a reasonable feed-in tariff is essential for expanding the application of solar PV energy. The findings improve understanding of regional renewable energy strategies and the supply/demand assessment. - Highlights: • We developed a grid-based comprehensive potential analysis framework of solar energy at the regional scale. • We evaluated the technical potential of solar PV generation. • We calculated the cost of PV generation and got the geospatial supply curve (GSC) of Fujian Province. • PV technology provides high potential for roof-top application and large-scale PV stations. • Determining a reasonable feed-in tariff is essential for expanding the application of solar PV energy

Advances in flash floods understanding and modelling derived from the FloodScale project in South-East France

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Braud Isabelle

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The Mediterranean area is prone to intense rainfall events triggering flash floods, characterized by very short response times that sometimes lead to dramatic consequences in terms of casualties and damages. These events can affect large territories, but their impact may be very local in catchments that are generally ungauged. These events remain difficult to predict and the processes leading to their generation still need to be clarified. The HyMeX initiative (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment, 2010-2020 aims at increasing our understanding of the water cycle in the Mediterranean basin, in particular in terms of extreme events. In order to better understand processes leading to flash floods, a four-year experiment (2012-2015 was conducted in the Cévennes region (South-East France as part of the FloodScale project. Both continuous and opportunistic measurements during floods were conducted in two large catchments (Ardèche and Gard rivers with nested instrumentation from the hillslopes to catchments of about 1, 10, 100 to 1000 km2 covering contrasted geology and land use. Continuous measurements include distributed rainfall, stream water level, discharge, water temperature and conductivity and soil moisture measurements. Opportunistic measurements include surface soil moisture and geochemistry sampling during events and gauging of floods using non-contact methods: portable radars to measure surface water velocity or image sequence analysis using LS-PIV (Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry. During the period 2012-2014, and in particular during autumn 2014, several intense events affected the catchments and provided very rich data sets. Data collection was complemented with modelling activity aiming at simulating observed processes. The modelling strategy was setup through a wide range of scales, in order to test hypotheses about physical processes at the smallest scales, and aggregated functioning hypothesis at the largest

Recent Regional Climate State and Change - Derived through Downscaling Homogeneous Large-scale Components of Re-analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Von Storch, H.; Klehmet, K.; Geyer, B.; Li, D.; Schubert-Frisius, M.; Tim, N.; Zorita, E.

2015-12-01

Global re-analyses suffer from inhomogeneities, as they process data from networks under development. However, the large-scale component of such re-analyses is mostly homogeneous; additional observational data add in most cases to a better description of regional details and less so on large-scale states. Therefore, the concept of downscaling may be applied to homogeneously complementing the large-scale state of the re-analyses with regional detail - wherever the condition of homogeneity of the large-scales is fulfilled. Technically this can be done by using a regional climate model, or a global climate model, which is constrained on the large scale by spectral nudging. This approach has been developed and tested for the region of Europe, and a skillful representation of regional risks - in particular marine risks - was identified. While the data density in Europe is considerably better than in most other regions of the world, even here insufficient spatial and temporal coverage is limiting risk assessments. Therefore, downscaled data-sets are frequently used by off-shore industries. We have run this system also in regions with reduced or absent data coverage, such as the Lena catchment in Siberia, in the Yellow Sea/Bo Hai region in East Asia, in Namibia and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. Also a global (large scale constrained) simulation has been. It turns out that spatially detailed reconstruction of the state and change of climate in the three to six decades is doable for any region of the world.The different data sets are archived and may freely by used for scientific purposes. Of course, before application, a careful analysis of the quality for the intended application is needed, as sometimes unexpected changes in the quality of the description of large-scale driving states prevail.

Regional Scaling of Airborne Eddy Covariance Flux Observation

Science.gov (United States)

Sachs, T.; Serafimovich, A.; Metzger, S.; Kohnert, K.; Hartmann, J.

2014-12-01

The earth's surface is tightly coupled to the global climate system by the vertical exchange of energy and matter. Thus, to better understand and potentially predict changes to our climate system, it is critical to quantify the surface-atmosphere exchange of heat, water vapor, and greenhouse gases on climate-relevant spatial and temporal scales. Currently, most flux observations consist of ground-based, continuous but local measurements. These provide a good basis for temporal integration, but may not be representative of the larger regional context. This is particularly true for the Arctic, where site selection is additionally bound by logistical constraints, among others. Airborne measurements can overcome this limitation by covering distances of hundreds of kilometers over time periods of a few hours. The Airborne Measurements of Methane Fluxes (AIRMETH) campaigns are designed to quantitatively and spatially explicitly address this issue: The research aircraft POLAR 5 is used to acquire thousands of kilometers of eddy-covariance flux data. During the AIRMETH-2012 and AIRMETH-2013 campaigns we measured the turbulent exchange of energy, methane, and (in 2013) carbon dioxide over the North Slope of Alaska, USA, and the Mackenzie Delta, Canada. Here, we present the potential of environmental response functions (ERFs) for quantitatively linking flux observations to meteorological and biophysical drivers in the flux footprints. We use wavelet transforms of the original high-frequency data to improve spatial discretization of the flux observations. This also enables the quantification of continuous and biophysically relevant land cover properties in the flux footprint of each observation. A machine learning technique is then employed to extract and quantify the functional relationships between flux observations and the meteorological and biophysical drivers. The resulting ERFs are used to extrapolate fluxes over spatio-temporally explicit grids of the study area. The

Dynamics of Multi-Scale Intra-Provincial Regional Inequality in Zhejiang, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenze Yue

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates regional inequality in a multi-scale framework, using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, based on the per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP of counties and municipalities within the Zhejiang province in China between the years of 1990 and 2010. A Spatial Markov Chain is used to identify the dynamics of regional wealth disparity in Zhejiang. The results show that the regional inequality of Zhejiang is sensitive to the geographic scale of the analysis. In addition, the inter-county inequality shows an inverted-U shape pattern. At the same time, the inter-municipality inequality displays a more consistently upward trend, and the evolution of the interregional inequality is relatively stable over time. The regional inequality is more significant at finer (larger spatial scales. The decomposition of the Theil Index shows that the contribution of the inequalities between Northeast Zhejiang and Southwest Zhejiang increased. The increasingly larger values of the Global Moran’s I show that there is an intensifying spatial aggregation of economic development. The comparison of the traditional Markov transition matrix and the Spatial Markov transition matrix illustrates how the relative wealth or poverty of neighboring counties make a significance difference in wealth in a given county as measured using domestic GDP per capita in Zhejiang province. This space-time analysis is valuable for policy making towards sustainable economic development in China given the soaring spatial inequality.

A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis COSMO-REA2: Improving the representation of precipitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabrina Wahl

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Atmospheric reanalyses are a state-of-the-art tool to generate consistent and realistic state estimates of the atmospheric system. They provide a synthesis of various heterogeneous observational systems and model simulations using a physical model together with a data assimilation scheme. Current reanalyses are mainly global, while regional reanalyses are emerging for North America, the polar region, and most recently for Europe. However, deep convection is still parameterized even in the regional reanalyses. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis system for Central Europe (COSMO-REA2 has been developed by the Hans-Ertel Center for Weather Research – Climate Monitoring Branch. The system is based on the COSMO model and uses observational nudging for regional data assimilation. In addition to conventional observations, radar-derived rain rates are assimilated using latent heat nudging. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2 km, the model runs without parameterization of deep moist convection. COSMO-REA2 produces horizontal wind fields that represent a realistic energy spectrum for horizontal scales above 14 km. COSMO-REA2 is currently available for seven years from 2007 to 2013.This study illustrates the improved representation of local precipitation over Germany by the convective-scale reanalysis COSMO-REA2 compared to coarser gridded European and global reanalyses. A systematic verification using rain gauge data reveals the added value of high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalyses on different time scales. On monthly to annual time scales, regional reanalyses yield better estimates of the spatial variability of precipitation patterns which can not be provided by coarser gridded global models. On hourly to daily time scales, the convective-scale reanalysis substantially improves the representation of local precipitation in two ways. On the one hand, COSMO-REA2 shows an enhanced representation of observed frequencies of local

Salinization of aquifers at the regional scale by marine transgression: Time scales and processes

Science.gov (United States)

Armandine Les Landes, A.; Davy, P.; Aquilina, L.

2014-12-01

Saline fluids with moderate concentrations have been sampled and reported in the Armorican basement at the regional scale (northwestern France). The horizontal and vertical distributions of high chloride concentrations (60-1400mg/L) at the regional scale support the marine origin and provide constraints on the age of these saline fluids. The current distribution of fresh and "saline" groundwater at depth is the result mostly of processes occurring at geological timescales - seawater intrusion processes followed by fresh groundwater flushing -, and only slightly of recent anthropogenic activities. In this study, we focus on seawater intrusion mechanisms in continental aquifers. We argue that one of the most efficient processes in macrotidal environments is the gravity-driven downconing instability below coastal salinized rivers. 2-D numerical experiments have been used to quantify this process according to four main parameter types: (1) the groundwater system permeability, (2) the salinity degree of the river, (3) the river width and slope, and (4) the tidal amplitude. A general expression of the salinity inflow rates have been derived, which has been used to estimate groundwater salinization rates in Brittany, given the geomorphological and environmental characteristics (drainage basin area, river widths and slopes, tidal range, aquifer permeability). We found that downconing below coastal rivers entail very high saline rates, indicating that this process play a major role in the salinization of regional aquifers. This is also likely to be an issue in the context of climate change, where sea-level rise is expected.

Understanding relationships among ecosystem services across spatial scales and over time

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Booth, Eric G.; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C.; Kucharik, Christopher J.; Loheide, Steven P., II; Turner, Monica G.

2018-05-01

Sustaining ecosystem services (ES), mitigating their tradeoffs and avoiding unfavorable future trajectories are pressing social-environmental challenges that require enhanced understanding of their relationships across scales. Current knowledge of ES relationships is often constrained to one spatial scale or one snapshot in time. In this research, we integrated biophysical modeling with future scenarios to examine changes in relationships among eight ES indicators from 2001–2070 across three spatial scales—grid cell, subwatershed, and watershed. We focused on the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin) in the Midwestern United States—an exemplar for many urbanizing agricultural landscapes. Relationships among ES indicators changed over time; some relationships exhibited high interannual variations (e.g. drainage vs. food production, nitrate leaching vs. net ecosystem exchange) and even reversed signs over time (e.g. perennial grass production vs. phosphorus yield). Robust patterns were detected for relationships among some regulating services (e.g. soil retention vs. water quality) across three spatial scales, but other relationships lacked simple scaling rules. This was especially true for relationships of food production vs. water quality, and drainage vs. number of days with runoff >10 mm, which differed substantially across spatial scales. Our results also showed that local tradeoffs between food production and water quality do not necessarily scale up, so reducing local tradeoffs may be insufficient to mitigate such tradeoffs at the watershed scale. We further synthesized these cross-scale patterns into a typology of factors that could drive changes in ES relationships across scales: (1) effects of biophysical connections, (2) effects of dominant drivers, (3) combined effects of biophysical linkages and dominant drivers, and (4) artificial scale effects, and concluded with management implications. Our study highlights the importance of taking a dynamic

Rio Grande Basin and the modern world: Understanding scale and context

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph A. Tainter

1999-01-01

Environmental problems are social issues, embedded in economic and political contexts at the local, regional, national, and global levels. Placing environmental issues on the scale from local to global clarifies conflicts between the level at which problems originate and the level at which they must be addressed. Local issues today often originate in sources distant in...

Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A. B. A.

2017-07-01

One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.

Ion-Scale Structure in Mercury's Magnetopause Reconnection Diffusion Region

Science.gov (United States)

Gershman, Daniel J.; Dorelli, John C.; DiBraccio, Gina A.; Raines, Jim M.; Slavin, James A.; Poh, Gangkai; Zurbuchen, Thomas H.

2016-01-01

The strength and time dependence of the electric field in a magnetopause diffusion region relate to the rate of magnetic reconnection between the solar wind and a planetary magnetic field. Here we use approximately 150 milliseconds measurements of energetic electrons from the Mercury Surface, Space Environment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft observed over Mercury's dayside polar cap boundary (PCB) to infer such small-scale changes in magnetic topology and reconnection rates. We provide the first direct measurement of open magnetic topology in flux transfer events at Mercury, structures thought to account for a significant portion of the open magnetic flux transport throughout the magnetosphere. In addition, variations in PCB latitude likely correspond to intermittent bursts of approximately 0.3 to 3 millivolts per meter reconnection electric fields separated by approximately 5 to10 seconds, resulting in average and peak normalized dayside reconnection rates of approximately 0.02 and approximately 0.2, respectively. These data demonstrate that structure in the magnetopause diffusion region at Mercury occurs at the smallest ion scales relevant to reconnection physics.

Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions ASSAR Intro Presentation

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Mark New

adaptation? • Where are the knowledge and capacity gaps in accessing, contextualizing and acting on climate information? • What new approaches can be developed to lead to more effective shaping and communication of climate messages? Understanding the governance context across scales will help to identify barriers ...

Interacting Regional-Scale Regime Shifts for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leadley, P.; Proenca, V.; Fernandez-Manjarres, J.; Pereira, H.M.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Biggs, R.; Bruley, E.; Cheung, W.; Cooper, D.; Figueiredo, J.; Gilman, E.; Guenette, S.; Hurtt, G.; Mbow, C.; Oberdorff, T.; Revenga, C.; Scharlemann, J.P.W.; Scholes, R.; Smith, M.S.; Sumaila, U.R.; Walpole, M.

2014-01-01

Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human-environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are

Groundwater circulation in deep carbonate regions

Science.gov (United States)

Szönyi-Mádl, Judit; Tóth, Ádám

2016-04-01

The operation of the subsurface part of the hydrologic cycle is hardly understood on basin scale due to the limitation in validated knowledge. Therefore the water balance approach is used with simplified numerical approaches during solving water related problems. The understanding of hierarchical nature of gravity-driven groundwater flow in near-surface and other driving forces in the deeper part of the lithosphere are often neglected. In this context thick and deep carbonate regions are especially less understood because the applicability of the gravity-driven regional groundwater flow (GDRGF) concept for such ranges formerly was debated. This is because karst studies are focused rather on the understanding of heterogeneity of karst systems. In contrary, this study found, on the basis of REV concept, that at regional scale not the local permeability values but its regional distribution is decisive. Firstly, according to the hydraulic diffusivity values it was stated that hydraulic connectivity is more effective in basinal carbonates compared to siliciclastics. Consequently, the efficient hydraulic responses for hydraulic head changes (due to water production or injection) in a carbonate system can give an indirect clue regarding hydraulic connectivity of the system rather than understanding the detailed permeability distribution. The concerns of the applicability of the GDRGF concept, therefore could be resolved. Subsequently, the concept of GDRGF can be used as a working hypothesis for understanding basinal hydraulics and geologic agency of flowing groundwater in thick carbonate ranges (Mádl-Szonyi and Tóth 2015). The hydrogeologically complex thick carbonate system of the Transdanubian Range (TR) Hungary was used as a study area to reveal the role of GDRGF at basin scale. Water level changes in the system, due to long-term mine dewatering exemplify the hydraulic continuity and compartmentalization of the system. Clustering of spring data, numerical flow and

An approach for classification of hydrogeological systems at the regional scale based on groundwater hydrographs

Science.gov (United States)

Haaf, Ezra; Barthel, Roland

2016-04-01

When assessing hydrogeological conditions at the regional scale, the analyst is often confronted with uncertainty of structures, inputs and processes while having to base inference on scarce and patchy data. Haaf and Barthel (2015) proposed a concept for handling this predicament by developing a groundwater systems classification framework, where information is transferred from similar, but well-explored and better understood to poorly described systems. The concept is based on the central hypothesis that similar systems react similarly to the same inputs and vice versa. It is conceptually related to PUB (Prediction in ungauged basins) where organization of systems and processes by quantitative methods is intended and used to improve understanding and prediction. Furthermore, using the framework it is expected that regional conceptual and numerical models can be checked or enriched by ensemble generated data from neighborhood-based estimators. In a first step, groundwater hydrographs from a large dataset in Southern Germany are compared in an effort to identify structural similarity in groundwater dynamics. A number of approaches to group hydrographs, mostly based on a similarity measure - which have previously only been used in local-scale studies, can be found in the literature. These are tested alongside different global feature extraction techniques. The resulting classifications are then compared to a visual "expert assessment"-based classification which serves as a reference. A ranking of the classification methods is carried out and differences shown. Selected groups from the classifications are related to geological descriptors. Here we present the most promising results from a comparison of classifications based on series correlation, different series distances and series features, such as the coefficients of the discrete Fourier transform and the intrinsic mode functions of empirical mode decomposition. Additionally, we show examples of classes

Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

Science.gov (United States)

Bergamasco, A.; Budgell, W. P.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.

2005-03-01

Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays--a non-glacial period--appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution of working group I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense-water formation sites act as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus131961224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air-sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean deep convection and open-sea ice formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and

Introducing Subrid-scale Cloud Feedbacks to Radiation for Regional Meteorological and Cllimate Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Convection systems and associated cloudiness directly influence regional and local radiation budgets, and dynamics and thermodynamics through feedbacks. However, most subgrid-scale convective parameterizations in regional weather and climate models do not consider cumulus cloud ...

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System, and a Regional Scale Model to Study Precipitation Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2007-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a superparameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (2ICE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generatio11 regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).

Towards a physically-based multi-scale ecohydrological simulator for semi-arid regions

Science.gov (United States)

Caviedes-Voullième, Daniel; Josefik, Zoltan; Hinz, Christoph

2017-04-01

The use of numerical models as tools for describing and understanding complex ecohydrological systems has enabled to test hypothesis and propose fundamental, process-based explanations of the system system behaviour as a whole as well as its internal dynamics. Reaction-diffusion equations have been used to describe and generate organized pattern such as bands, spots, and labyrinths using simple feedback mechanisms and boundary conditions. Alternatively, pattern-matching cellular automaton models have been used to generate vegetation self-organization in arid and semi-arid regions also using simple description of surface hydrological processes. A key question is: How much physical realism is needed in order to adequately capture the pattern formation processes in semi-arid regions while reliably representing the water balance dynamics at the relevant time scales? In fact, redistribution of water by surface runoff at the hillslope scale occurs at temporal resolution of minutes while the vegetation development requires much lower temporal resolution and longer times spans. This generates a fundamental spatio-temporal multi-scale problem to be solved, for which high resolution rainfall and surface topography are required. Accordingly, the objective of this contribution is to provide proof-of-concept that governing processes can be described numerically at those multiple scales. The requirements for a simulating ecohydrological processes and pattern formation with increased physical realism are, amongst others: i. high resolution rainfall that adequately captures the triggers of growth as vegetation dynamics of arid regions respond as pulsed systems. ii. complex, natural topography in order to accurately model drainage patterns, as surface water redistribution is highly sensitive to topographic features. iii. microtopography and hydraulic roughness, as small scale variations do impact on large scale hillslope behaviour iv. moisture dependent infiltration as temporal

Estimation and applicability of attenuation characteristics for source parameters and scaling relations in the Garhwal Kumaun Himalaya region, India

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Singh, Rakesh; Paul, Ajay; Kumar, Arjun; Kumar, Parveen; Sundriyal, Y. P.

2018-06-01

Source parameters of the small to moderate earthquakes are significant for understanding the dynamic rupture process, the scaling relations of the earthquakes and for assessment of seismic hazard potential of a region. In this study, the source parameters were determined for 58 small to moderate size earthquakes (3.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.0) occurred during 2007-2015 in the Garhwal-Kumaun region. The estimated shear wave quality factor (Qβ(f)) values for each station at different frequencies have been applied to eliminate any bias in the determination of source parameters. The Qβ(f) values have been estimated by using coda wave normalization method in the frequency range 1.5-16 Hz. A frequency-dependent S wave quality factor relation is obtained as Qβ(f) = (152.9 ± 7) f(0.82±0.005) by fitting a power-law frequency dependence model for the estimated values over the whole study region. The spectral (low-frequency spectral level and corner frequency) and source (static stress drop, seismic moment, apparent stress and radiated energy) parameters are obtained assuming ω-2 source model. The displacement spectra are corrected for estimated frequency-dependent attenuation, site effect using spectral decay parameter "Kappa". The frequency resolution limit was resolved by quantifying the bias in corner frequencies, stress drop and radiated energy estimates due to finite-bandwidth effect. The data of the region shows shallow focused earthquakes with low stress drop. The estimation of Zúñiga parameter (ε) suggests the partial stress drop mechanism in the region. The observed low stress drop and apparent stress can be explained by partial stress drop and low effective stress model. Presence of subsurface fluid at seismogenic depth certainly manipulates the dynamics of the region. However, the limited event selection may strongly bias the scaling relation even after taking as much as possible precaution in considering effects of finite bandwidth, attenuation and site corrections

Scaled equation of state parameters for gases in the critical region

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Sengers, J. M. H. L.; Greer, W. L.; Sengers, J. V.

1976-01-01

In the light of recent theoretical developments, the paper presents an accurate characterization of anomalous thermodynamic behavior of xenon, helium 4, helium 3, carbon dioxide, steam and oxygen in the critical region. This behavior is associated with long range fluctuations in the system and the physical properties depend primarily on a single variable, namely, the correlation length. A description of the thermodynamic behavior of fluids in terms of scaling laws is formulated, and the two successfully used scaled equations of state (NBS equation and Linear Model parametric equation) are compared. Methods for fitting both equations to experimental equation of state data are developed and formulated, and the optimum fit for each of the two scaled equations of the above gases are presented and the results are compared. By extending the experimental data for the above one-component fluids to partially miscible binary liquids, superfluid liquid helium, ferromagnets and solids exhibiting order-disorder transitions, the principle of universality is concluded. Finally by using this principle, the critical regions for nine additional fluids are described.

Scaled parametric equation of state for steam in the critical region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, T.A.; Sengers, J.V.

1975-01-01

The anomalous thermodynamic behavior of fluids near the critical point can be described in terms of scaling laws. In recent years a parametric equation of state, the so-called Linear Model, has been proposed that satisfies the scaling laws and contains only a small number of adjustable parameters. It is shown that the Linear Model yields a satisfactory representation of the experimental P-V-T data for steam in the critical region. (29 references)

Scale dependence of deuteron electrodisintegration

Science.gov (United States)

More, S. N.; Bogner, S. K.; Furnstahl, R. J.

2017-11-01

Background: Isolating nuclear structure properties from knock-out reactions in a process-independent manner requires a controlled factorization, which is always to some degree scale and scheme dependent. Understanding this dependence is important for robust extractions from experiment, to correctly use the structure information in other processes, and to understand the impact of approximations for both. Purpose: We seek insight into scale dependence by exploring a model calculation of deuteron electrodisintegration, which provides a simple and clean theoretical laboratory. Methods: By considering various kinematic regions of the longitudinal structure function, we can examine how the components—the initial deuteron wave function, the current operator, and the final-state interactions (FSIs)—combine at different scales. We use the similarity renormalization group to evolve each component. Results: When evolved to different resolutions, the ingredients are all modified, but how they combine depends strongly on the kinematic region. In some regions, for example, the FSIs are largely unaffected by evolution, while elsewhere FSIs are greatly reduced. For certain kinematics, the impulse approximation at a high renormalization group resolution gives an intuitive picture in terms of a one-body current breaking up a short-range correlated neutron-proton pair, although FSIs distort this simple picture. With evolution to low resolution, however, the cross section is unchanged but a very different and arguably simpler intuitive picture emerges, with the evolved current efficiently represented at low momentum through derivative expansions or low-rank singular value decompositions. Conclusions: The underlying physics of deuteron electrodisintegration is scale dependent and not just kinematics dependent. As a result, intuition about physics such as the role of short-range correlations or D -state mixing in particular kinematic regimes can be strongly scale dependent

Predicting redox conditions in groundwater at a regional scale

Science.gov (United States)

Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Terziotti, Silvia; Abrams, Daniel B.

2015-01-01

Defining the oxic-suboxic interface is often critical for determining pathways for nitrate transport in groundwater and to streams at the local scale. Defining this interface on a regional scale is complicated by the spatial variability of reaction rates. The probability of oxic groundwater in the Chesapeake Bay watershed was predicted by relating dissolved O2 concentrations in groundwater samples to indicators of residence time and/or electron donor availability using logistic regression. Variables that describe surficial geology, position in the flow system, and soil drainage were important predictors of oxic water. The probability of encountering oxic groundwater at a 30 m depth and the depth to the bottom of the oxic layer were predicted for the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The influence of depth to the bottom of the oxic layer on stream nitrate concentrations and time lags (i.e., time period between land application of nitrogen and its effect on streams) are illustrated using model simulations for hypothetical basins. Regional maps of the probability of oxic groundwater should prove useful as indicators of groundwater susceptibility and stream susceptibility to contaminant sources derived from groundwater.

Scaling disturbance instead of richness to better understand anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen J Mayor

Full Text Available A primary impediment to understanding how species diversity and anthropogenic disturbance are related is that both diversity and disturbance can depend on the scales at which they are sampled. While the scale dependence of diversity estimation has received substantial attention, the scale dependence of disturbance estimation has been essentially overlooked. Here, we break from conventional examination of the diversity-disturbance relationship by holding the area over which species richness is estimated constant and instead manipulating the area over which human disturbance is measured. In the boreal forest ecoregion of Alberta, Canada, we test the dependence of species richness on disturbance scale, the scale-dependence of the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, and the consistency of these patterns in native versus exotic species and among human disturbance types. We related field observed species richness in 1 ha surveys of 372 boreal vascular plant communities to remotely sensed measures of human disturbance extent at two survey scales: local (1 ha and landscape (18 km2. Supporting the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, species richness-disturbance relationships were quadratic at both local and landscape scales of disturbance measurement. This suggests the shape of richness-disturbance relationships is independent of the scale at which disturbance is assessed, despite that local diversity is influenced by disturbance at different scales by different mechanisms, such as direct removal of individuals (local or indirect alteration of propagule supply (landscape. By contrast, predictions of species richness did depend on scale of disturbance measurement: with high local disturbance richness was double that under high landscape disturbance.

Mangroves Enhance Reef Fish Abundance at the Caribbean Regional Scale.

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Serafy, Joseph E; Shideler, Geoffrey S; Araújo, Rafael J; Nagelkerken, Ivan

2015-01-01

Several studies conducted at the scale of islands, or small sections of continental coastlines, have suggested that mangrove habitats serve to enhance fish abundances on coral reefs, mainly by providing nursery grounds for several ontogenetically-migrating species. However, evidence of such enhancement at a regional scale has not been reported, and recently, some researchers have questioned the mangrove-reef subsidy effect. In the present study, using two different regression approaches, we pursued two questions related to mangrove-reef connectivity at the Caribbean regional scale: (1) Are reef fish abundances limited by mangrove forest area?; and (2) Are mean reef fish abundances proportional to mangrove forest area after taking human population density and latitude into account? Specifically, we tested for Caribbean-wide mangrove forest area effects on the abundances of 12 reef fishes that have been previously characterized as "mangrove-dependent". Analyzed were data from an ongoing, long-term (20-year) citizen-scientist fish monitoring program; coastal human population censuses; and several wetland forest information sources. Quantile regression results supported the notion that mangrove forest area limits the abundance of eight of the 12 fishes examined. Linear mixed-effects regression results, which considered potential human (fishing and habitat degradation) and latitudinal influences, suggested that average reef fish densities of at least six of the 12 focal fishes were directly proportional to mangrove forest area. Recent work questioning the mangrove-reef fish subsidy effect likely reflects a failure to: (1) focus analyses on species that use mangroves as nurseries, (2) consider more than the mean fish abundance response to mangrove forest extent; and/or (3) quantitatively account for potentially confounding human impacts, such as fishing pressure and habitat degradation. Our study is the first to demonstrate at a large regional scale (i.e., the Wider

Mangroves Enhance Reef Fish Abundance at the Caribbean Regional Scale.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph E Serafy

Full Text Available Several studies conducted at the scale of islands, or small sections of continental coastlines, have suggested that mangrove habitats serve to enhance fish abundances on coral reefs, mainly by providing nursery grounds for several ontogenetically-migrating species. However, evidence of such enhancement at a regional scale has not been reported, and recently, some researchers have questioned the mangrove-reef subsidy effect. In the present study, using two different regression approaches, we pursued two questions related to mangrove-reef connectivity at the Caribbean regional scale: (1 Are reef fish abundances limited by mangrove forest area?; and (2 Are mean reef fish abundances proportional to mangrove forest area after taking human population density and latitude into account? Specifically, we tested for Caribbean-wide mangrove forest area effects on the abundances of 12 reef fishes that have been previously characterized as "mangrove-dependent". Analyzed were data from an ongoing, long-term (20-year citizen-scientist fish monitoring program; coastal human population censuses; and several wetland forest information sources. Quantile regression results supported the notion that mangrove forest area limits the abundance of eight of the 12 fishes examined. Linear mixed-effects regression results, which considered potential human (fishing and habitat degradation and latitudinal influences, suggested that average reef fish densities of at least six of the 12 focal fishes were directly proportional to mangrove forest area. Recent work questioning the mangrove-reef fish subsidy effect likely reflects a failure to: (1 focus analyses on species that use mangroves as nurseries, (2 consider more than the mean fish abundance response to mangrove forest extent; and/or (3 quantitatively account for potentially confounding human impacts, such as fishing pressure and habitat degradation. Our study is the first to demonstrate at a large regional scale (i

LANDIS PRO: a landscape model that predicts forest composition and structure changes at regional scales

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Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Jacob S. Fraser; Frank R. Thompson; Stephen R. Shifley; Martin A. Spetich

2014-01-01

LANDIS PRO predicts forest composition and structure changes incorporating species-, stand-, and landscape-scales processes at regional scales. Species-scale processes include tree growth, establishment, and mortality. Stand-scale processes contain density- and size-related resource competition that regulates self-thinning and seedling establishment. Landscapescale...

Classification as a generic tool for characterising status and changes of regional scale groundwater systems

Science.gov (United States)

Barthel, Roland; Haaf, Ezra

2016-04-01

Regional hydrogeology is becoming increasingly important, but at the same time, scientifically sound, universal solutions for typical groundwater problems encountered on the regional scale are hard to find. While managers, decision-makers and state agencies operating on regional and national levels have always shown a strong interest in regional scale hydrogeology, researchers from academia tend to avoid the subject, focusing instead on local scales. Additionally, hydrogeology has always had a tendency to regard every problem as unique to its own site- and problem-specific context. Regional scale hydrogeology is therefore pragmatic rather than aiming at developing generic methodology (Barthel, 2014; Barthel and Banzhaf, 2016). One of the main challenges encountered on the regional scale in hydrogeology is the extreme heterogeneity that generally increases with the size of the studied area - paired with relative data scarcity. Even in well-monitored regions of the world, groundwater observations are usually clustered, leaving large areas without any direct data. However, there are many good reasons for assessing the status and predicting the behavior of groundwater systems under conditions of global change even for those areas and aquifers without observations. This is typically done by using rather coarsely discretized and / or poorly parameterized numerical models, or by using very simplistic conceptual hydrological models that do not take into account the complex three-dimensional geological setup. Numerical models heavily rely on local data and are resource-demanding. Conceptual hydrological models only deliver reliable information on groundwater if the geology is extremely simple. In this contribution, we present an approach to derive statistically relevant information for un-monitored areas, making use of existing information from similar localities that are or have been monitored. The approach combines site-specific knowledge with conceptual assumptions on

Spectral classification of medium-scale high-latitude F region plasma density irregularities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, M.; Rodriguez, P.; Szuszczewicz, E.P.; Sachs Freeman Associates, Bowie, MD)

1985-01-01

The high-latitude ionosphere represents a highly structured plasma. Rodriguez and Szuszczewicz (1984) reported a wide range of plasma density irregularities (150 km to 75 m) at high latitudes near 200 km. They have shown that the small-scale irregularities (7.5 km to 75 m) populated the dayside oval more often than the other phenomenological regions. It was suggested that in the lower F region the chemical recombination is fast enough to remove small-scale irregularities before convection can transport them large distances, leaving structured particle precipitation as the dominant source term for irregularities. The present paper provides the results of spectral analyses of pulsed plasma probe data collected in situ aboard the STP/S3-4 satellite during the period March-September 1978. A quantitative description of irregularity spectra in the high-latitude lower F region plasma density is given. 22 references

Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Welsch, M.

2015-01-01

KTH Royal Institute of Technology was founded in 1827 and it is the largest technical university in Sweden with five campuses and Around 15,000 students. KTH-dESA combines an outstanding knowledge in the field of energy systems analysis. This is demonstrated by the successful collaborations with many (UN) organizations. Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa include Assessing renewable energy potentials; Analysing investment strategies; ) Assessing climate resilience; Comparing electrification options; Providing web-based decision support; and Quantifying energy access. It is conclude that Strategies required to ensure a robust and flexible energy system (-> no-regret choices); Capacity investments should be in line with national & regional strategies; Climate change important to consider, as it may strongly influence the energy flows in a region; Long-term models can help identify robust energy investment strategies and pathways that Can help assess future markets and profitability of individual projects

Hydrogeochemical characterization of groundwater in the Outaouais Region (Québec, Canada) - A regional scale study

Science.gov (United States)

Montcoudiol, N.; Molson, J. W.; Lemieux, J.

2013-12-01

rainwater in unconfined aquifers (bromide below detection limit). Secondary processes, related to the bedrock geology, are responsible for exceedances of Canadian drinking water standards. They include the dissolution of F-, U-, Fe- and Mn-bearing minerals known to be abundant in the region (deposits and mines throughout the study area). Chloride contamination was identified in some recharge areas, related to anthropogenic activities. The study has identified Champlain Sea invasion, cation exchange and freshwater recharge as the main geochemical processes affecting groundwater chemistry in this region. Secondary processes were also identified, based on exceedances of Canadian drinking water standards. These results will be applied at the local scale, along a flow path, to relate geochemical evolution to groundwater flow conditions. More data are available at this scale such as stable isotope content (δ18O and δ2H), groundwater age (tritium and 14C) and noble gas content. These additional data will help improve our understanding about groundwater chemical evolution and define a complete conceptual model.

Causal inference between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors in a large-scale region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Yuqiong; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Qi; Yu, Huanyun; Liu, Jianfeng; Tian, Yu; Chang, Chunying; Lei, Jing

2017-01-01

The causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors are generally obtained from field experiments at local scales at present, and lack sufficient evidence from large scales. However, inferring causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions is challenging. Because the conventional correlation-based approaches used for causation assessments across large-scale regions, at the expense of actual causation, can result in spurious insights. In this study, a general approach framework, Intervention calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (IDA) combined with the backdoor criterion (BC), was introduced to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and the potential environmental factors across large-scale regions. We take the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China as a case study. The causal structures and effects were identified based on the concentrations of heavy metals (Zn, As, Cu, Hg, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd) in soil (0–20 cm depth) and vegetable (lettuce) and 40 environmental factors (soil properties, extractable heavy metals and weathering indices) in 94 samples across the PRD. Results show that the bioavailability of heavy metals (Cd, Zn, Cr, Ni and As) was causally influenced by soil properties and soil weathering factors, whereas no causal factor impacted the bioavailability of Cu, Hg and Pb. No latent factor was found between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors. The causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors at field experiments is consistent with that on a large scale. The IDA combined with the BC provides a powerful tool to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions. Causal inference in a large system with the dynamic changes has great implications for system-based risk management. - Causation between the

Prospects for resilience and sustainability of urban socio-techno-ecological systems to evolving stressors at global, regional, and local scales (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Grimm, N. B.

2013-12-01

Urbanization is occurring at an accelerating rate against a backdrop of the numerous other globally significant environmental changes that are the hallmark of the Anthropocene. Thus an understanding of the environmental impacts of urbanization must recognize the multiscalar context of other environmental changes. Cities are focal points of human population, production, and consumption, including the generation of waste and most of the critical emissions to the atmosphere. They are highly modified and dominated by built structure. They are generally depauperate of species and harbor their own microclimates and hot spots of pollutants. But they also are centers of human creative activities, and in that capacity may provide platforms for the transition to a more sustainable world. A view of the city, a complex social-technological-ecological system, as both driver and responder to these multiple stressors is key to developing appropriate conceptual frameworks for understanding urban ecosystem change. The convergence of global environmental change, including climate change, and worldwide urbanization presents numerous challenges for sustainability that are manifest at global, regional, and local scales. This presentation will explore the current reality and future prospects for resilience of cities and, more specifically, urban water systems, to extant and changing stressors at these three scales. At the global scale, challenges of supplying water for three billion new urban residents in the coming decades are explored through a geography of water availability, quality, and accessibility. At regional scales, I highlight differences in solutions to climate change-related challenges that derive from geophysical and socioecological gradients. And, at the local scale, blended technological and ecological solutions to the challenges of urban stormwater and the 'new normal' are discussed, based on a case study in an arid urban ecosystem. Urban resilience and sustainability

Monitoring and assessment of soil erosion at micro-scale and macro-scale in forests affected by fire damage in northern Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Akbarzadeh, Ali; Ghorbani-Dashtaki, Shoja; Naderi-Khorasgani, Mehdi; Kerry, Ruth; Taghizadeh-Mehrjardi, Ruhollah

2016-12-01

Understanding the occurrence of erosion processes at large scales is very difficult without studying them at small scales. In this study, soil erosion parameters were investigated at micro-scale and macro-scale in forests in northern Iran. Surface erosion and some vegetation attributes were measured at the watershed scale in 30 parcels of land which were separated into 15 fire-affected (burned) forests and 15 original (unburned) forests adjacent to the burned sites. The soil erodibility factor and splash erosion were also determined at the micro-plot scale within each burned and unburned site. Furthermore, soil sampling and infiltration studies were carried out at 80 other sites, as well as the 30 burned and unburned sites, (a total of 110 points) to create a map of the soil erodibility factor at the regional scale. Maps of topography, rainfall, and cover-management were also determined for the study area. The maps of erosion risk and erosion risk potential were finally prepared for the study area using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) procedure. Results indicated that destruction of the protective cover of forested areas by fire had significant effects on splash erosion and the soil erodibility factor at the micro-plot scale and also on surface erosion, erosion risk, and erosion risk potential at the watershed scale. Moreover, the results showed that correlation coefficients between different variables at the micro-plot and watershed scales were positive and significant. Finally, assessment and monitoring of the erosion maps at the regional scale showed that the central and western parts of the study area were more susceptible to erosion compared with the western regions due to more intense crop-management, greater soil erodibility, and more rainfall. The relationships between erosion parameters and the most important vegetation attributes were also used to provide models with equations that were specific to the study region. The results of this

Methodology for Air Quality Forecast Downscaling from Regional- to Street-Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Baklanov, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Mahura, Alexander; Amstrup, Bjarne; Hansen Saas, Bent; Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Lorenzen, Thomas; Weismann, Jakob

2010-05-01

The most serious air pollution events occur in cities where there is a combination of high population density and air pollution, e.g. from vehicles. The pollutants can lead to serious human health problems, including asthma, irritation of the lungs, bronchitis, pneumonia, decreased resistance to respiratory infections, and premature death. In particular air pollution is associated with increase in cardiovascular disease and lung cancer. In 2000 WHO estimated that between 2.5 % and 11 % of total annual deaths are caused by exposure to air pollution. However, European-scale air quality models are not suited for local forecasts, as their grid-cell is typically of the order of 5 to 10km and they generally lack detailed representation of urban effects. Two suites are used in the framework of the EC FP7 project MACC (Monitoring of Atmosphere Composition and Climate) to demonstrate how downscaling from the European MACC ensemble to local-scale air quality forecast will be carried out: one will illustrate capabilities for the city of Copenhagen (Denmark); the second will focus on the city of Bucharest (Romania). This work is devoted to the first suite, where methodological aspects of downscaling from regional (European/ Denmark) to urban scale (Copenhagen), and from the urban down to street scale. The first results of downscaling according to the proposed methodology are presented. The potential for downscaling of European air quality forecasts by operating urban and street-level forecast models is evaluated. This will bring a strong support for continuous improvement of the regional forecast modelling systems for air quality in Europe, and underline clear perspectives for the future regional air quality core and downstream services for end-users. At the end of the MACC project, requirements on "how-to-do" downscaling of European air-quality forecasts to the city and street levels with different approaches will be formulated.

Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

2011-12-01

Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This

[Acceptance and understandability of various methods of health valuations for the chronically ill: willingness to pay, visual analogue scale and rating scale].

Science.gov (United States)

Meder, M; Farin, E

2009-11-01

Health valuations are one way of measuring patient preferences with respect to the results of their treatment. The study examines three different methods of health valuations--willingness to pay (WTP), visual analogue scale (VAS), and a rating question for evaluating the subjective significance. The goal is to test the understandability and acceptance of these methods for implementation in questionnaires. In various rehabilitation centres, a total of six focus groups were conducted with 5-9 patients each with a mean age of 57.1 years. The illnesses considered were chronic-ischaemic heart disease, chronic back pain, and breast cancer. Patients filled out a questionnaire that was then discussed in the group. In addition to the quantitative evaluation of the data in the questionnaire, a qualitative analysis of the contents of the group discussion protocols was made. We have results from a total of 42 patients. 14.6% of the patients had "great difficulties" understanding the WTP or rated it as "completely incomprehensible"; this value was 7.3% for VAS and 0% for the rating scale. With respect to acceptance, 31.0% of the patients indicated that they were "not really" or "not at all" willing to answer such a WTP question in a questionnaire; this was 6.6% for the VAS, and again 0% for the rating scale. The qualitative analysis provided an indication as to why some patients view the WTP question in particular in a negative light. Many difficulties in understanding it were related to the formulation of the question and the structure of the questionnaire. However, the patients' statements also made it apparent that the hypothetical nature of the WTP questionnaire was not always recognised. The most frequent reason for the lack of acceptance of the WTP was the patients' fear of negative financial consequences of their responses. With respect to understandability and acceptance, VAS questions appear to be better suited for reflecting patient preferences than WTP questions. The

Regional-scale calculation of the LS factor using parallel processing

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Kai; Tang, Guoan; Jiang, Ling; Zhu, A.-Xing; Yang, Jianyi; Song, Xiaodong

2015-05-01

With the increase of data resolution and the increasing application of USLE over large areas, the existing serial implementation of algorithms for computing the LS factor is becoming a bottleneck. In this paper, a parallel processing model based on message passing interface (MPI) is presented for the calculation of the LS factor, so that massive datasets at a regional scale can be processed efficiently. The parallel model contains algorithms for calculating flow direction, flow accumulation, drainage network, slope, slope length and the LS factor. According to the existence of data dependence, the algorithms are divided into local algorithms and global algorithms. Parallel strategy are designed according to the algorithm characters including the decomposition method for maintaining the integrity of the results, optimized workflow for reducing the time taken for exporting the unnecessary intermediate data and a buffer-communication-computation strategy for improving the communication efficiency. Experiments on a multi-node system show that the proposed parallel model allows efficient calculation of the LS factor at a regional scale with a massive dataset.

Spatial connections in regional climate model rainfall outputs at different temporal scales: Application of network theory

Science.gov (United States)

Naufan, Ihsan; Sivakumar, Bellie; Woldemeskel, Fitsum M.; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

2018-01-01

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall has always been a great challenge, and the impacts of climate change further complicate this issue. The present study employs the concepts of complex networks to study the spatial connections in rainfall, with emphasis on climate change and rainfall scaling. Rainfall outputs (during 1961-1990) from a regional climate model (i.e. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that downscaled the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF ERA-40 reanalyses) over Southeast Asia are studied, and data corresponding to eight different temporal scales (6-hr, 12-hr, daily, 2-day, 4-day, weekly, biweekly, and monthly) are analyzed. Two network-based methods are applied to examine the connections in rainfall: clustering coefficient (a measure of the network's local density) and degree distribution (a measure of the network's spread). The influence of rainfall correlation threshold (T) on spatial connections is also investigated by considering seven different threshold levels (ranging from 0.5 to 0.8). The results indicate that: (1) rainfall networks corresponding to much coarser temporal scales exhibit properties similar to that of small-world networks, regardless of the threshold; (2) rainfall networks corresponding to much finer temporal scales may be classified as either small-world networks or scale-free networks, depending upon the threshold; and (3) rainfall spatial connections exhibit a transition phase at intermediate temporal scales, especially at high thresholds. These results suggest that the most appropriate model for studying spatial connections may often be different at different temporal scales, and that a combination of small-world and scale-free network models might be more appropriate for rainfall upscaling/downscaling across all scales, in the strict sense of scale-invariance. The results also suggest that spatial connections in the studied rainfall networks in Southeast Asia are

Regional Arctic System Model (RASM): A Tool to Advance Understanding and Prediction of Arctic Climate Change at Process Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Brunke, M.; Cassano, J. J.; Clement Kinney, J. L.; Craig, A.; Duvivier, A.; Fisel, B. J.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Hamman, J.; Hughes, M.; Nijssen, B.; Zeng, X.

2014-12-01

The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic changes, which are some of the most coordinated changes currently occurring anywhere on Earth. They are exemplified by the retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, which integrates forcing by, exchanges with and feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean and land. While historical reconstructions from Global Climate and Global Earth System Models (GC/ESMs) are in broad agreement with these changes, the rate of change in the GC/ESMs remains outpaced by observations. Reasons for that stem from a combination of coarse model resolution, inadequate parameterizations, unrepresented processes and a limited knowledge of physical and other real world interactions. We demonstrate the capability of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) in addressing some of the GC/ESM limitations in simulating observed seasonal to decadal variability and trends in the sea ice cover and climate. RASM is a high resolution, fully coupled, pan-Arctic climate model that uses the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. It uses the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and Parallel Ocean Program (POP) configured at an eddy-permitting resolution of 1/12° as well as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models at 50 km resolution. All RASM components are coupled via the CESM flux coupler (CPL7) at 20-minute intervals. RASM is an example of limited-area, process-resolving, fully coupled earth system model, which due to the additional constraints from lateral boundary conditions and nudging within a regional model domain facilitates detailed comparisons with observational statistics that are not possible with GC/ESMs. In this talk, we will emphasize the utility of RASM to understand sensitivity to variable parameter space, importance of critical processes, coupled feedbacks and ultimately to reduce uncertainty in arctic climate change projections.

Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Agriculture on a Regional Scale

OpenAIRE

Agnieszka Wysocka-Czubaszek; Robert Czubaszek; Sławomir Roj-Rojewski; Piotr Banaszuk

2018-01-01

Nowadays, agriculture has to meet the growing food demand together with high requirements of environmental protection, especially regarding the climate change. The greenhouse gas emissions differ not only on a global, but also on a regional scale, and mitigation strategies are effective when they are adapted properly. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to present the results of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions inventory on a regional level in Poland in years 1999-2015. The CH4...

Ear Detection under Uncontrolled Conditions with Multiple Scale Faster Region-Based Convolutional Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Zhang

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Ear detection is an important step in ear recognition approaches. Most existing ear detection techniques are based on manually designing features or shallow learning algorithms. However, researchers found that the pose variation, occlusion, and imaging conditions provide a great challenge to the traditional ear detection methods under uncontrolled conditions. This paper proposes an efficient technique involving Multiple Scale Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Networks (Faster R-CNN to detect ears from 2D profile images in natural images automatically. Firstly, three regions of different scales are detected to infer the information about the ear location context within the image. Then an ear region filtering approach is proposed to extract the correct ear region and eliminate the false positives automatically. In an experiment with a test set of 200 web images (with variable photographic conditions, 98% of ears were accurately detected. Experiments were likewise conducted on the Collection J2 of University of Notre Dame Biometrics Database (UND-J2 and University of Beira Interior Ear dataset (UBEAR, which contain large occlusion, scale, and pose variations. Detection rates of 100% and 98.22%, respectively, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Fluctuation scaling, Taylor's law, and crime.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Quentin S Hanley

Full Text Available Fluctuation scaling relationships have been observed in a wide range of processes ranging from internet router traffic to measles cases. Taylor's law is one such scaling relationship and has been widely applied in ecology to understand communities including trees, birds, human populations, and insects. We show that monthly crime reports in the UK show complex fluctuation scaling which can be approximated by Taylor's law relationships corresponding to local policing neighborhoods and larger regional and countrywide scales. Regression models applied to local scale data from Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire found that different categories of crime exhibited different scaling exponents with no significant difference between the two regions. On this scale, violence reports were close to a Poisson distribution (α = 1.057 ± 0.026 while burglary exhibited a greater exponent (α = 1.292 ± 0.029 indicative of temporal clustering. These two regions exhibited significantly different pre-exponential factors for the categories of anti-social behavior and burglary indicating that local variations in crime reports can be assessed using fluctuation scaling methods. At regional and countrywide scales, all categories exhibited scaling behavior indicative of temporal clustering evidenced by Taylor's law exponents from 1.43 ± 0.12 (Drugs to 2.094 ± 0081 (Other Crimes. Investigating crime behavior via fluctuation scaling gives insight beyond that of raw numbers and is unique in reporting on all processes contributing to the observed variance and is either robust to or exhibits signs of many types of data manipulation.

Fluctuation scaling, Taylor's law, and crime.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanley, Quentin S; Khatun, Suniya; Yosef, Amal; Dyer, Rachel-May

2014-01-01

Fluctuation scaling relationships have been observed in a wide range of processes ranging from internet router traffic to measles cases. Taylor's law is one such scaling relationship and has been widely applied in ecology to understand communities including trees, birds, human populations, and insects. We show that monthly crime reports in the UK show complex fluctuation scaling which can be approximated by Taylor's law relationships corresponding to local policing neighborhoods and larger regional and countrywide scales. Regression models applied to local scale data from Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire found that different categories of crime exhibited different scaling exponents with no significant difference between the two regions. On this scale, violence reports were close to a Poisson distribution (α = 1.057 ± 0.026) while burglary exhibited a greater exponent (α = 1.292 ± 0.029) indicative of temporal clustering. These two regions exhibited significantly different pre-exponential factors for the categories of anti-social behavior and burglary indicating that local variations in crime reports can be assessed using fluctuation scaling methods. At regional and countrywide scales, all categories exhibited scaling behavior indicative of temporal clustering evidenced by Taylor's law exponents from 1.43 ± 0.12 (Drugs) to 2.094 ± 0081 (Other Crimes). Investigating crime behavior via fluctuation scaling gives insight beyond that of raw numbers and is unique in reporting on all processes contributing to the observed variance and is either robust to or exhibits signs of many types of data manipulation.

New Possibilities for High-Resolution, Large-Scale Ecosystem Assessment of the World's Semi-Arid Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Burney, J. A.; Goldblatt, R.

2016-12-01

Understanding drivers of land use change - and in particular, levels of ecosystem degradation - in semi-arid regions is of critical importance because these agroecosystems (1) are home to the world's poorest populations, almost all of whom depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, (2) play a critical role in the global carbon and climate cycles, and (3) have in many cases seen dramatic changes in temperature and precipitation, relative to global averages, over the past several decades. However, assessing ecosystem health (or, conversely, degradation) presents a difficult measurement problem. Established methods are very labor intensive and rest on detailed questionnaires and field assessments. High-resolution satellite imagery has a unique role semi-arid ecosystem assessment in that it can be used for rapid (or repeated) and very simple measurements of tree and shrub density, an excellent overall indicator for dryland ecosystem health. Because trees and large shrubs are more sparse in semi-arid regions, sub-meter resolution imagery in conjunction with automated image analysis can be used to assess density differences at high spatial resolution without expensive and time-consuming ground-truthing. This could be used down to the farm level, for example, to better assess the larger-scale ecosystem impacts of different management practices, to assess compliance with REDD+ carbon offset protocols, or to evaluate implementation of conservation goals. Here we present results comparing spatial and spectral remote sensing methods for semi-arid ecosystem assessment across new data sources, using the Brazilian Sertão as an example, and the implications for large-scale use in semi-arid ecosystem science.

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

2015-02-20

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

2009-04-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types on an annual to inter-annual timescale. In addition, the relative frequency of synoptic types is shown to vary on a multi-decadal timescale, associated with changes in the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

Analyzing cloud base at local and regional scales to understand tropical montane cloud forest vulnerability to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; González, Grizelle; Scholl, Martha A.

2017-01-01

The degree to which cloud immersion provides water in addition to rainfall, suppresses transpiration, and sustains tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) during rainless periods is not well understood. Climate and land use changes represent a threat to these forests if cloud base altitude rises as a result of regional warming or deforestation. To establish a baseline for quantifying future changes in cloud base, we installed a ceilometer at 100 m altitude in the forest upwind of the TMCF that occupies an altitude range from ∼ 600 m to the peaks at 1100 m in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. Airport Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) ceilometer data, radiosonde data, and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite data were obtained to investigate seasonal cloud base dynamics, altitude of the trade-wind inversion (TWI), and typical cloud thickness for the surrounding Caribbean region. Cloud base is rarely quantified near mountains, so these results represent a first look at seasonal and diurnal cloud base dynamics for the TMCF. From May 2013 to August 2016, cloud base was lowest during the midsummer dry season, and cloud bases were lower than the mountaintops as often in the winter dry season as in the wet seasons. The lowest cloud bases most frequently occurred at higher elevation than 600 m, from 740 to 964 m. The Luquillo forest low cloud base altitudes were higher than six other sites in the Caribbean by ∼ 200–600 m, highlighting the importance of site selection to measure topographic influence on cloud height. Proximity to the oceanic cloud system where shallow cumulus clouds are seasonally invariant in altitude and cover, along with local trade-wind orographic lifting and cloud formation, may explain the dry season low clouds. The results indicate that climate change threats to low-elevation TMCFs are not limited to the dry season; changes in synoptic-scale weather patterns

Causal inference between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors in a large-scale region.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yuqiong; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Qi; Yu, Huanyun; Liu, Jianfeng; Tian, Yu; Chang, Chunying; Lei, Jing

2017-07-01

The causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors are generally obtained from field experiments at local scales at present, and lack sufficient evidence from large scales. However, inferring causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions is challenging. Because the conventional correlation-based approaches used for causation assessments across large-scale regions, at the expense of actual causation, can result in spurious insights. In this study, a general approach framework, Intervention calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (IDA) combined with the backdoor criterion (BC), was introduced to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and the potential environmental factors across large-scale regions. We take the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China as a case study. The causal structures and effects were identified based on the concentrations of heavy metals (Zn, As, Cu, Hg, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd) in soil (0-20 cm depth) and vegetable (lettuce) and 40 environmental factors (soil properties, extractable heavy metals and weathering indices) in 94 samples across the PRD. Results show that the bioavailability of heavy metals (Cd, Zn, Cr, Ni and As) was causally influenced by soil properties and soil weathering factors, whereas no causal factor impacted the bioavailability of Cu, Hg and Pb. No latent factor was found between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors. The causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors at field experiments is consistent with that on a large scale. The IDA combined with the BC provides a powerful tool to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions. Causal inference in a large system with the dynamic changes has great implications for system-based risk management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All

Nitrogen and phosphorus use efficiencies and losses in the food chain in China at regional scales in 1980 and 2005.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, L; Velthof, G L; Wang, F H; Qin, W; Zhang, W F; Liu, Z; Zhang, Y; Wei, J; Lesschen, J P; Ma, W Q; Oenema, O; Zhang, F S

2012-09-15

Crop and animal production in China has increased significantly during the last decades, but at the cost of large increases in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses, which contribute to ecosystem degradation and human health effects. This information is largely based on scattered field experiments, surveys and national statistics. As a consequence, there is as yet no comprehensive understanding of the changes in N and P cycling and losses at regional and national scales. Here, we present the results of an integrated assessment of the N and P use efficiencies (NUE and PUE) and N and P losses in the chain of crop and animal production, food processing and retail, and food consumption at regional scale in 1980 and 2005, using a uniform approach and databases. Our results show that the N and P costs of food production-consumption almost doubled between 1980 and 2005, but with large regional variation. The NUE and PUE of crop production decreased dramatically, while NUE and PUE in animal production increased. Interestingly, NUE and PUE of the food processing sector decreased from about 75% to 50%. Intake of N and P per capita increased, but again with large regional variation. Losses of N and P from agriculture to atmosphere and water bodies increased in most regions, especially in the east and south of the country. Highest losses were estimated for the Beijing and Tianjin metropolitan regions (North China), Pearl River Delta (South China) and Yangzi River Delta (East China). In conclusion, the changes and regional variations in NUE and PUE in the food chain of China are large and complex. Changes occurred in the whole crop and animal production, food processing and consumption chain, and were largest in the most populous areas between 1980 and 2005. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Observation of Small and Medium-Scale Gravity Waves over the Brazilian Equatorial Region

Science.gov (United States)

Essien, Patrick; Buriti, Ricardo; Wrasse, Cristiano M.; Medeiros, Amauri; Paulino, Igo; Takahashi, Hisao; Campos, Jose Andre

2016-07-01

This paper reports the long term observations of small and medium-scale gravity waves over Brazilian equatorial region. Coordinated optical and radio measurements were made from OLAP at Sao Joao do Cariri (7.400S, 36.500W) to investigate the occurrences and properties and to characterize the regional mesospheric gravity wave field. All-sky imager measurements were made from the site. for almost 11 consecutive years (September 2000 to November 2010). Most of the waves propagated were characterized as small-scale gravity. The characteristics of the two waves events agreed well with previous gravity wave studies from Brazil and other sites. However, significant differences in the wave propagation headings indicate dissimilar source regions. The observed medium-scale gravity wave events constitute an important new dataset to study their mesospheric properties at equatorial latitudes. These data exhibited similar propagation headings to the short period events, suggesting they originated from the same source regions. It was also observed that some of the medium-scale were capable of propagating into the lower thermosphere where they may have acted directly as seeds for the Rayleigh-Taylor instability development. The wave events were primarily generated by meteorological processes since there was no correlation between the evolution of the wave events and solar cycle F10.7.

Regional Commonalities and Regional Identities: Forging a Normative Understanding of Southeast Asian Identity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gürol Baba

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In the last two decades, most of the IR academia’s attention on Southeast Asian regionalism utilised constructivism and/or realism and has focused on ASEAN and its derivatives. This article aims to skew this angle by elaborating a possible relationship between Asian values and a normative understanding of Southeast Asian identity. The major reason for this article’s focus on a normative interpretation is that a practical application of Southeast Asian identity is not very achievable due to various ethnic, cultural, political, territorial, and historical diversities. While the region is diverse, there are also a number of commonalities among its states. Asian values, from a Confucian perspective, account for some of these commonalities. By using constructivists’ claims on both the links between norms and identity and the dynamic interaction between values and norms, this article argues that Asian values could contribute to the development of Amitav Acharya’s widely cited normative/ideational format of Southeast Asian identity. The article takes ASEAN identity as a case study and aims to show why a normative identity is more achievable than a practical identity among Southeast Asians, and how Asian values might contribute to the creation of this shared identity.

Evaluation of performance of seasonal precipitation prediction at regional scale over India

Science.gov (United States)

Mohanty, U. C.; Nageswararao, M. M.; Sinha, P.; Nair, A.; Singh, A.; Rai, R. K.; Kar, S. C.; Ramesh, K. J.; Singh, K. K.; Ghosh, K.; Rathore, L. S.; Sharma, R.; Kumar, A.; Dhekale, B. S.; Maurya, R. K. S.; Sahoo, R. K.; Dash, G. P.

2018-03-01

The seasonal scale precipitation amount is an important ingredient in planning most of the agricultural practices (such as a type of crops, and showing and harvesting schedules). India being an agroeconomic country, the seasonal scale prediction of precipitation is directly linked to the socioeconomic growth of the nation. At present, seasonal precipitation prediction at regional scale is a challenging task for the scientific community. In the present study, an attempt is made to develop multi-model dynamical-statistical approach for seasonal precipitation prediction at the regional scale (meteorological subdivisions) over India for four prominent seasons which are winter (from December to February; DJF), pre-monsoon (from March to May; MAM), summer monsoon (from June to September; JJAS), and post-monsoon (from October to December; OND). The present prediction approach is referred as extended range forecast system (ERFS). For this purpose, precipitation predictions from ten general circulation models (GCMs) are used along with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall analysis data from 1982 to 2008 for evaluation of the performance of the GCMs, bias correction of the model results, and development of the ERFS. An extensive evaluation of the performance of the ERFS is carried out with dependent data (1982-2008) as well as independent predictions for the period 2009-2014. In general, the skill of the ERFS is reasonably better and consistent for all the seasons and different regions over India as compared to the GCMs and their simple mean. The GCM products failed to explain the extreme precipitation years, whereas the bias-corrected GCM mean and the ERFS improved the prediction and well represented the extremes in the hindcast period. The peak intensity, as well as regions of maximum precipitation, is better represented by the ERFS than the individual GCMs. The study highlights the improvement of forecast skill of the ERFS over 34 meteorological subdivisions

Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America

Science.gov (United States)

Malick, Michael J.; Cox, Sean P.

2016-01-01

Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC) with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65%) did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks) and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks). We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time. PMID:26760510

Contextual Multi-Scale Region Convolutional 3D Network for Activity Detection

KAUST Repository

Bai, Yancheng

2018-01-28

Activity detection is a fundamental problem in computer vision. Detecting activities of different temporal scales is particularly challenging. In this paper, we propose the contextual multi-scale region convolutional 3D network (CMS-RC3D) for activity detection. To deal with the inherent temporal scale variability of activity instances, the temporal feature pyramid is used to represent activities of different temporal scales. On each level of the temporal feature pyramid, an activity proposal detector and an activity classifier are learned to detect activities of specific temporal scales. Temporal contextual information is fused into activity classifiers for better recognition. More importantly, the entire model at all levels can be trained end-to-end. Our CMS-RC3D detector can deal with activities at all temporal scale ranges with only a single pass through the backbone network. We test our detector on two public activity detection benchmarks, THUMOS14 and ActivityNet. Extensive experiments show that the proposed CMS-RC3D detector outperforms state-of-the-art methods on THUMOS14 by a substantial margin and achieves comparable results on ActivityNet despite using a shallow feature extractor.

Contextual Multi-Scale Region Convolutional 3D Network for Activity Detection

KAUST Repository

Bai, Yancheng; Xu, Huijuan; Saenko, Kate; Ghanem, Bernard

2018-01-01

Activity detection is a fundamental problem in computer vision. Detecting activities of different temporal scales is particularly challenging. In this paper, we propose the contextual multi-scale region convolutional 3D network (CMS-RC3D) for activity detection. To deal with the inherent temporal scale variability of activity instances, the temporal feature pyramid is used to represent activities of different temporal scales. On each level of the temporal feature pyramid, an activity proposal detector and an activity classifier are learned to detect activities of specific temporal scales. Temporal contextual information is fused into activity classifiers for better recognition. More importantly, the entire model at all levels can be trained end-to-end. Our CMS-RC3D detector can deal with activities at all temporal scale ranges with only a single pass through the backbone network. We test our detector on two public activity detection benchmarks, THUMOS14 and ActivityNet. Extensive experiments show that the proposed CMS-RC3D detector outperforms state-of-the-art methods on THUMOS14 by a substantial margin and achieves comparable results on ActivityNet despite using a shallow feature extractor.

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gutowski, William J.

2013-02-07

The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

Distinguishing globally-driven changes from regional- and local-scale impacts: The case for long-term and broad-scale studies of recovery from pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkins, S J; Evans, A J; Mieszkowska, N; Adams, L C; Bray, S; Burrows, M T; Firth, L B; Genner, M J; Leung, K M Y; Moore, P J; Pack, K; Schuster, H; Sims, D W; Whittington, M; Southward, E C

2017-11-30

Marine ecosystems are subject to anthropogenic change at global, regional and local scales. Global drivers interact with regional- and local-scale impacts of both a chronic and acute nature. Natural fluctuations and those driven by climate change need to be understood to diagnose local- and regional-scale impacts, and to inform assessments of recovery. Three case studies are used to illustrate the need for long-term studies: (i) separation of the influence of fishing pressure from climate change on bottom fish in the English Channel; (ii) recovery of rocky shore assemblages from the Torrey Canyon oil spill in the southwest of England; (iii) interaction of climate change and chronic Tributyltin pollution affecting recovery of rocky shore populations following the Torrey Canyon oil spill. We emphasize that "baselines" or "reference states" are better viewed as envelopes that are dependent on the time window of observation. Recommendations are made for adaptive management in a rapidly changing world. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Biogeography of Deep-sea benthic bacteria at regional scale (LTER HAUSGARTEN, Fram Strait, Arctic.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marianne Jacob

Full Text Available Knowledge on spatial scales of the distribution of deep-sea life is still sparse, but highly relevant to the understanding of dispersal, habitat ranges and ecological processes. We examined regional spatial distribution patterns of the benthic bacterial community and covarying environmental parameters such as water depth, biomass and energy availability at the Arctic Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER site HAUSGARTEN (Eastern Fram Strait. Samples from 13 stations were retrieved from a bathymetric (1,284-3,535 m water depth, 54 km in length and a latitudinal transect (∼ 2,500 m water depth; 123 km in length. 454 massively parallel tag sequencing (MPTS and automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis (ARISA were combined to describe both abundant and rare types shaping the bacterial community. This spatial sampling scheme allowed detection of up to 99% of the estimated richness on phylum and class levels. At the resolution of operational taxonomic units (97% sequence identity; OTU3% only 36% of the Chao1 estimated richness was recovered, indicating a high diversity, mostly due to rare types (62% of all OTU3%. Accordingly, a high turnover of the bacterial community was also observed between any two sampling stations (average replacement of 79% of OTU3%, yet no direct correlation with spatial distance was observed within the region. Bacterial community composition and structure differed significantly with increasing water depth along the bathymetric transect. The relative sequence abundance of Verrucomicrobia and Planctomycetes decreased significantly with water depth, and that of Deferribacteres increased. Energy availability, estimated from phytodetrital pigment concentrations in the sediments, partly explained the variation in community structure. Overall, this study indicates a high proportion of unique bacterial types on relatively small spatial scales (tens of kilometers, and supports the sampling design of the LTER site HAUSGARTEN to

A fusion of top-down and bottom-up modeling techniques to constrain regional scale carbon budgets

Science.gov (United States)

Goeckede, M.; Turner, D. P.; Michalak, A. M.; Vickers, D.; Law, B. E.

2009-12-01

. Bayesian inversion is then applied to assign scaling factors that align the surface fluxes with the CO2 time series. Our project demonstrates how bottom-up and top-down techniques can be reconciled to arrive at a more robust and balanced spatial carbon budget. We will show how to evaluate existing flux products through regionally representative atmospheric observations, i.e. how well the underlying model assumptions represent processes on the regional scale. Adapting process model parameterizations sets for e.g. sub-regions, disturbance regimes, or land cover classes, in order to optimize the agreement between surface fluxes and atmospheric observations can lead to improved understanding of the underlying flux mechanisms, and reduces uncertainties in the regional carbon budgets.

Making the Business Case for Regional and National Water Data Collection

Science.gov (United States)

Pinero, E.

2017-12-01

Water-related risks are becoming more and more of a concern with organizations that either depend on water use or are responsible for water services provision. Yet this concern does not always translate into a business case to support large scale water data collection. One reason is that water demand varies across sectors and physical setting. There is typically no single parameter or reason where a given entity would be interested in national or even regional scale data. Even for public sector entities, water issues are local and their jurisdiction does not span regional scale coverage. Therefore, to make the case for adequate data collection not only are technology and web platforms necessary, but one also needs a compelling business case. One way to make the case will involve raising awareness of the critical cross-cutting role of water such that sectors see the need for water data to support sustainability of other systems, such as energy, food, and resilience. Another factor will be understanding the full life cycle role of water, especially in the supply chain, and that there are many variables that drive water demand. Such an understanding will make clearer the need for more regional scale understanding. This will begin to address the apparent catch 22 that there is a need for data to understand the scope of the challenge, but until the scope of the challenge is understood, there is nno impelling business case to collect data. Examples, such as the Alliance for Water Stewardship standard and CEO Water Mandate Water Action Hub will be discussed to illustrate recent innovations in making a case for efficient collection of watershed scale and regional data.

Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

2006-01-01

The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

2006-03-01

The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

Regional and landscape-scale variability of Landsat-observed vegetation dynamics in northwest Siberian tundra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frost, Gerald V; Epstein, Howard E; Walker, Donald A

2014-01-01

Widespread increases in Arctic tundra productivity have been documented for decades using coarse-scale satellite observations, but finer-scale observations indicate that changes have been very uneven, with a high degree of landscape- and regional-scale heterogeneity. Here we analyze time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observed by Landsat (1984–2012), to assess landscape- and regional-scale variability of tundra vegetation dynamics in the northwest Siberian Low Arctic, a little-studied region with varied soils, landscape histories, and permafrost attributes. We also estimate spatio-temporal rates of land-cover change associated with expansion of tall alder (Alnus) shrublands, by integrating Landsat time-series with very-high-resolution imagery dating to the mid-1960s. We compiled Landsat time-series for eleven widely-distributed landscapes, and performed linear regression of NDVI values on a per-pixel basis. We found positive net NDVI trends (‘greening’) in nine of eleven landscapes. Net greening occurred in alder shrublands in all landscapes, and strong greening tended to correspond to shrublands that developed since the 1960s. Much of the spatial variability of greening within landscapes was linked to landscape physiography and permafrost attributes, while between-landscape variability largely corresponded to differences in surficial geology. We conclude that continued increases in tundra productivity in the region are likely in upland tundra landscapes with fine-textured, cryoturbated soils; these areas currently tend to support discontinuous vegetation cover, but are highly susceptible to rapid increases in vegetation cover, as well as land-cover changes associated with the development of tall shrublands. (paper)

Relationship between Eurasian large-scale patterns and regional climate variability over the Black and Baltic Seas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stankunavicius, G.; Pupienis, D. [Vilnius Univ. (Lithuania). Dept. of Hydrology and Climatology; Basharin, D. [National Academy of Science of Ukraine, Sevastopol (Ukraine). Sevastopol Marine Hydrophysical Inst.

2012-11-01

Using a NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset and the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis approach we studied interannual to decadal variabilities of the sea-level air pressure (SLP) and the surface air temperature (SAT) fields over Eurasia during the 2nd part of the 20th century. Our results agree with those of the previous studies, which conclude that Eurasian trends are the result of storm-path changes driven by the interdecadal behaviour of the NAO-like meridional dipole pattern in the Atlantic. On interannual and decadal time scales, significant synchronous correlations between correspondent modes of SAT and SLP EOF patterns were found. This fact suggests that there is a strong and stable Eurasian interrelationship between SAT and SLP large-scale fields which affects the local climate of two sub-regions: the Black and Baltic Seas. The climate variability in these sub-regions was studied in terms of Eurasian large-scale surface-temperature and air-pressure patterns responses. We concluded that the sub-regional climate variability substantially differs over the Black and Baltic Seas, and depends on different Eurasian large-scale patterns. We showed that the Baltic Sea region is influenced by the patterns arising primary from NAO-like meridional dipole, as well as Scandinavian patterns, while the Black Sea's SAT/SLP variability is influenced mainly by the second mode EOF (eastern Atlantic) and large scale tropospheric wave structures. (orig.)

A comparative study of two approaches to analyse groundwater recharge, travel times and nitrate storage distribution at a regional scale

Science.gov (United States)

Turkeltaub, T.; Ascott, M.; Gooddy, D.; Jia, X.; Shao, M.; Binley, A. M.

2017-12-01

Understanding deep percolation, travel time processes and nitrate storage in the unsaturated zone at a regional scale is crucial for sustainable management of many groundwater systems. Recently, global hydrological models have been developed to quantify the water balance at such scales and beyond. However, the coarse spatial resolution of the global hydrological models can be a limiting factor when analysing regional processes. This study compares simulations of water flow and nitrate storage based on regional and global scale approaches. The first approach was applied over the Loess Plateau of China (LPC) to investigate the water fluxes and nitrate storage and travel time to the LPC groundwater system. Using raster maps of climate variables, land use data and soil parameters enabled us to determine fluxes by employing Richards' equation and the advection - dispersion equation. These calculations were conducted for each cell on the raster map in a multiple 1-D column approach. In the second approach, vadose zone travel times and nitrate storage were estimated by coupling groundwater recharge (PCR-GLOBWB) and nitrate leaching (IMAGE) models with estimates of water table depth and unsaturated zone porosity. The simulation results of the two methods indicate similar spatial groundwater recharge, nitrate storage and travel time distribution. Intensive recharge rates are located mainly at the south central and south west parts of the aquifer's outcrops. Particularly low recharge rates were simulated in the top central area of the outcrops. However, there are significant discrepancies between the simulated absolute recharge values, which might be related to the coarse scale that is used in the PCR-GLOBWB model, leading to smoothing of the recharge estimations. Both models indicated large nitrate inventories in the south central and south west parts of the aquifer's outcrops and the shortest travel times in the vadose zone are in the south central and east parts of the

Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR

Science.gov (United States)

Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

Co-creating Understanding in Water Use & Agricultural Resilience in a Multi-scale Natural-human System: Sacramento River Valley--California's Water Heartland in Transition

Science.gov (United States)

Fairbanks, D. H.; Brimlowe, J.; Chaudry, A.; Gray, K.; Greene, T.; Guzley, R.; Hatfield, C.; Houk, E.; Le Page, C.

2012-12-01

The Sacramento River Valley (SRV), valued for its $2.5 billion agricultural production and its biodiversity, is the main supplier of California's water, servicing 25 million people. . Despite rapid changes to the region, little is known about the collective motivations and consequences of land and water use decisions, or the social and environmental vulnerability and resilience of the SRV. The overarching research goal is to examine whether the SRV can continue to supply clean water for California and accommodate agricultural production and biodiversity while coping with climate change and population growth. Without understanding these issues, the resources of the SRV face an uncertain future. The defining goal is to construct a framework that integrates cross-disciplinary and diverse stakeholder perspectives in order to develop a comprehensive understanding of how SRV stakeholders make land and water use decisions. Traditional approaches for modeling have failed to take into consideration multi-scale stakeholder input. Currently there is no effective method to facilitate producers and government agencies in developing a shared representation to address the issues that face the region. To address this gap, researchers and stakeholders are working together to collect and consolidate disconnected knowledge held by stakeholder groups (agencies, irrigation districts, and producers) into a holistic conceptual model of how stakeholders view and make decisions with land and water use under various management systems. Our approach integrates a top-down approach (agency stakeholders) for larger scale management decisions with a conceptual co-creation and data gathering bottom-up approach with local agricultural producer stakeholders for input water and landuse decisions. Land use change models that combine a top-down approach with a bottom-up stakeholder approach are rare and yet essential to understanding how the social process of land use change and ecosystem function are

Groundwater flow simulation on local scale. Setting boundary conditions of groundwater flow simulation on site scale model in the step 4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Onoe, Hironori; Saegusa, Hiromitsu; Ohyama, Takuya

2007-03-01

Japan Atomic Energy Agency has been conducting a wide range of geoscientific research in order to build a foundation for multidisciplinary studies of the deep geological environment as a basis of research and development for geological disposal of nuclear wastes. Ongoing geoscientific research programs include the Regional Hydrogeological Study (RHS) project and Mizunami Underground Research Laboratory (MIU) project in the Tono region, Gifu Prefecture. The main goal of these projects is to establish comprehensive techniques for investigation, analysis, and assessment of the deep geological at several spatial scales. The RHS project is a Local scale study for understanding the groundwater flow system from the recharge area to the discharge area. The Surface-based Investigation Phase of the MIU project is a Site scale study for understanding the deep geological environment immediately surrounding the MIU construction site using a multiphase, iterative approach. In this study, the hydrogeological modeling and groundwater flow simulation on Local scale were carried out in order to set boundary conditions of the Site scale model based on the data obtained from surface-based investigations in the Step4 in Site scale of the MIU project. As a result of the study, boundary conditions for groundwater flow simulation on the Site scale model of the Step4 could be obtained. (author)

Using phylogenomics to understand the link between biogeographic origins and regional diversification in ratsnakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xin; Lemmon, Alan R; Lemmon, Emily Moriarty; Pyron, R Alexander; Burbrink, Frank T

2017-06-01

Globally distributed groups may show regionally distinct rates of diversification, where speciation is elevated given timing and sources of ecological opportunity. However, for most organisms, nearly complete sampling at genomic-data scales to reduce topological error in all regions is unattainable, thus hampering conclusions related to biogeographic origins and rates of diversification. We explore processes leading to the diversity of global ratsnakes and test several important hypotheses related to areas of origin and enhanced diversification upon colonizing new continents. We estimate species trees inferred from phylogenomic scale data (304 loci) while exploring several strategies that consider topological error from each individual gene tree. With a dated species tree, we examine taxonomy and test previous hypotheses that suggest the ratsnakes originated in the Old World (OW) and dispersed to New World (NW). Furthermore, we determine if dispersal to the NW represented a source of ecological opportunity, which should show elevated rates of species diversification. We show that ratsnakes originated in the OW during the mid-Oligocene and subsequently dispersed to the NW by the mid-Miocene; diversification was also elevated in a subclade of NW taxa. Finally, the optimal biogeographic region-dependent speciation model shows that the uptick in ratsnake diversification was associated with colonization of the NW. We consider several alternative explanations that account for regionally distinct diversification rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding hydraulic fracturing: a multi-scale problem

Science.gov (United States)

Hyman, J. D.; Jiménez-Martínez, J.; Viswanathan, H. S.; Carey, J. W.; Porter, M. L.; Rougier, E.; Karra, S.; Kang, Q.; Frash, L.; Chen, L.; Lei, Z.; O’Malley, D.; Makedonska, N.

2016-01-01

Despite the impact that hydraulic fracturing has had on the energy sector, the physical mechanisms that control its efficiency and environmental impacts remain poorly understood in part because the length scales involved range from nanometres to kilometres. We characterize flow and transport in shale formations across and between these scales using integrated computational, theoretical and experimental efforts/methods. At the field scale, we use discrete fracture network modelling to simulate production of a hydraulically fractured well from a fracture network that is based on the site characterization of a shale gas reservoir. At the core scale, we use triaxial fracture experiments and a finite-discrete element model to study dynamic fracture/crack propagation in low permeability shale. We use lattice Boltzmann pore-scale simulations and microfluidic experiments in both synthetic and shale rock micromodels to study pore-scale flow and transport phenomena, including multi-phase flow and fluids mixing. A mechanistic description and integration of these multiple scales is required for accurate predictions of production and the eventual optimization of hydrocarbon extraction from unconventional reservoirs. Finally, we discuss the potential of CO2 as an alternative working fluid, both in fracturing and re-stimulating activities, beyond its environmental advantages. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Energy and the subsurface’. PMID:27597789

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, X. C.; Mora, P.; Peng, K.; Wang, Y. C.; Weatherley, D.

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Groundwater-fed irrigation impacts spatially distributed temporal scaling behavior of the natural system: a spatio-temporal framework for understanding water management impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Condon, Laura E; Maxwell, Reed M

2014-01-01

Regional scale water management analysis increasingly relies on integrated modeling tools. Much recent work has focused on groundwater–surface water interactions and feedbacks. However, to our knowledge, no study has explicitly considered impacts of management operations on the temporal dynamics of the natural system. Here, we simulate twenty years of hourly moisture dependent, groundwater-fed irrigation using a three-dimensional, fully integrated, hydrologic model (ParFlow-CLM). Results highlight interconnections between irrigation demand, groundwater oscillation frequency and latent heat flux variability not previously demonstrated. Additionally, the three-dimensional model used allows for novel consideration of spatial patterns in temporal dynamics. Latent heat flux and water table depth both display spatial organization in temporal scaling, an important finding given the spatial homogeneity and weak scaling observed in atmospheric forcings. Pumping and irrigation amplify high frequency (sub-annual) variability while attenuating low frequency (inter-annual) variability. Irrigation also intensifies scaling within irrigated areas, essentially increasing temporal memory in both the surface and the subsurface. These findings demonstrate management impacts that extend beyond traditional water balance considerations to the fundamental behavior of the system itself. This is an important step to better understanding groundwater’s role as a buffer for natural variability and the impact that water management has on this capacity. (paper)

Outer region scaling using the freestream velocity for nonuniform open channel flow over gravel

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Robert L.; Fox, James F.

2017-06-01

The theoretical basis for outer region scaling using the freestream velocity for nonuniform open channel flows over gravel is derived and tested for the first time. Owing to the gradual expansion of the flow within the nonuniform case presented, it is hypothesized that the flow can be defined as an equilibrium turbulent boundary layer using the asymptotic invariance principle. The hypothesis is supported using similarity analysis to derive a solution, followed by further testing with experimental datasets. For the latter, 38 newly collected experimental velocity profiles across three nonuniform flows over gravel in a hydraulic flume are tested as are 43 velocity profiles previously published in seven peer-reviewed journal papers that focused on fluid mechanics of nonuniform open channel over gravel. The findings support the nonuniform flows as equilibrium defined by the asymptotic invariance principle, which is reflective of the consistency of the turbulent structure's form and function within the expanding flow. However, roughness impacts the flow structure when comparing across the published experimental datasets. As a secondary objective, we show how previously published mixed scales can be used to assist with freestream velocity scaling of the velocity deficit and thus empirically account for the roughness effects that extend into the outer region of the flow. One broader finding of this study is providing the theoretical context to relax the use of the elusive friction velocity when scaling nonuniform flows in gravel bed rivers; and instead to apply the freestream velocity. A second broader finding highlighted by our results is that scaling of nonuniform flow in gravel bed rivers is still not fully resolved theoretically since mixed scaling relies to some degree on empiricism. As researchers resolve the form and function of macroturbulence in the outer region, we hope to see the closing of this research gap.

Estimating regional-scale methane flux and budgets using CARVE aircraft measurements over Alaska

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Hartery

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Methane (CH4 is the second most important greenhouse gas but its emissions from northern regions are still poorly constrained. In this study, we analyze a subset of in situ CH4 aircraft observations made over Alaska during the growing seasons of 2012–2014 as part of the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE. Net surface CH4 fluxes are estimated using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model which quantitatively links surface emissions from Alaska and the western Yukon with observations of enhanced CH4 in the mixed layer. We estimate that between May and September, net CH4 emissions from the region of interest were 2.2 ± 0.5 Tg, 1.9 ± 0.4 Tg, and 2.3 ± 0.6 Tg of CH4 for 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. If emissions are only attributed to two biogenic eco-regions within our domain, then tundra regions were the predominant source, accounting for over half of the overall budget despite only representing 18 % of the total surface area. Boreal regions, which cover a large part of the study region, accounted for the remainder of the emissions. Simple multiple linear regression analysis revealed that, overall, CH4 fluxes were largely driven by soil temperature and elevation. In regions specifically dominated by wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 10 cm depth were important explanatory variables while in regions that were not wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 40 cm depth were more important, suggesting deeper methanogenesis in drier soils. Although similar environmental drivers have been found in the past to control CH4 emissions at local scales, this study shows that they can be used to generate a statistical model to estimate the regional-scale net CH4 budget.

Estimating regional-scale methane flux and budgets using CARVE aircraft measurements over Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Hartery, Sean; Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Sweeney, Colm; Henderson, John; Mountain, Marikate; Steiner, Nicholas; McDonald, Kyle; Dinardo, Steven J.; Miller, Charles E.; Wofsy, Steven C.; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.

2018-01-01

Methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas but its emissions from northern regions are still poorly constrained. In this study, we analyze a subset of in situ CH4 aircraft observations made over Alaska during the growing seasons of 2012-2014 as part of the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE). Net surface CH4 fluxes are estimated using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model which quantitatively links surface emissions from Alaska and the western Yukon with observations of enhanced CH4 in the mixed layer. We estimate that between May and September, net CH4 emissions from the region of interest were 2.2 ± 0.5 Tg, 1.9 ± 0.4 Tg, and 2.3 ± 0.6 Tg of CH4 for 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. If emissions are only attributed to two biogenic eco-regions within our domain, then tundra regions were the predominant source, accounting for over half of the overall budget despite only representing 18 % of the total surface area. Boreal regions, which cover a large part of the study region, accounted for the remainder of the emissions. Simple multiple linear regression analysis revealed that, overall, CH4 fluxes were largely driven by soil temperature and elevation. In regions specifically dominated by wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 10 cm depth were important explanatory variables while in regions that were not wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 40 cm depth were more important, suggesting deeper methanogenesis in drier soils. Although similar environmental drivers have been found in the past to control CH4 emissions at local scales, this study shows that they can be used to generate a statistical model to estimate the regional-scale net CH4 budget.

Evaluation and uncertainty analysis of regional-scale CLM4.5 net carbon flux estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Post, Hanna; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun; Baatz, Roland; Montzka, Carsten; Schmidt, Marius; Vereecken, Harry

2018-01-01

Modeling net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at the regional scale with land surface models (LSMs) is relevant for the estimation of regional carbon balances, but studies on it are very limited. Furthermore, it is essential to better understand and quantify the uncertainty of LSMs in order to improve them. An important key variable in this respect is the prognostic leaf area index (LAI), which is very sensitive to forcing data and strongly affects the modeled NEE. We applied the Community Land Model (CLM4.5-BGC) to the Rur catchment in western Germany and compared estimated and default ecological key parameters for modeling carbon fluxes and LAI. The parameter estimates were previously estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach DREAM(zs) for four of the most widespread plant functional types in the catchment. It was found that the catchment-scale annual NEE was strongly positive with default parameter values but negative (and closer to observations) with the estimated values. Thus, the estimation of CLM parameters with local NEE observations can be highly relevant when determining regional carbon balances. To obtain a more comprehensive picture of model uncertainty, CLM ensembles were set up with perturbed meteorological input and uncertain initial states in addition to uncertain parameters. C3 grass and C3 crops were particularly sensitive to the perturbed meteorological input, which resulted in a strong increase in the standard deviation of the annual NEE sum (σ ∑ NEE) for the different ensemble members from ˜ 2 to 3 g C m-2 yr-1 (with uncertain parameters) to ˜ 45 g C m-2 yr-1 (C3 grass) and ˜ 75 g C m-2 yr-1 (C3 crops) with perturbed forcings. This increase in uncertainty is related to the impact of the meteorological forcings on leaf onset and senescence, and enhanced/reduced drought stress related to perturbation of precipitation. The NEE uncertainty for the forest plant functional type (PFT) was considerably lower (σ ∑ NEE ˜ 4.0-13.5 g C

Asymmetry of agricultural water consumption in arid regions during alternating decadal scale wet and dry periods: explanation using behavioral economics

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Fuqiang

2017-04-01

Increase of human water consumption for agriculture and consequent degradation of the ecological environment is a common feature in many arid regions. Understanding the driving mechanisms behind this phenomenon is of critical importance for regional sustainable development. In this study, analyses of temporal patterns of human water consumption are carried out in three hyper-arid inland basins, i.e., Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia, and the Tarim and Heihe River Basins in Northwestern China. Multi-decadal time series of hydrological and human consumption data are divided into decadal sequences of wet and dry years. During the wet phases, the greater water availability inspires economic expansion and human water consumption experiences growth at a rate faster than that of incoming water. During the dry phases, however, the expanded economy (e.g., irrigation land expansion in an agriculture-based economy) has been managed to sustain or even to increase production by over-exploitation of water with sophisticated technologies. Inability to reduce human water consumption at a rate commensurate with the decrease of incoming water supply leads to serious ecosystem degradation. This asymmetric human water consumption response of society to decadal scale hydrologic variability can be explained in terms of prospect theory drawn from behavioral economics, which states that people tend to be risk averse when facing gains and show risk preference when facing losses. In the three socio-hydrological case studies, direct economic gain/loss has relatively low value but high certainty when compared to indirect economic loss/gain (such as environmental or sustainability loss/gain), which has high value but with high uncertainty. According to prospect theory, people tend to gain direct economic benefits at the expense of environmental degradation and at the risk of system collapse. The outcomes of this study have major implications for water resources management at long time scales

Cross-scale analysis of the region effect on vascular plant species diversity in southern and northern European mountain ranges.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathan Lenoir

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The divergent glacial histories of southern and northern Europe affect present-day species diversity at coarse-grained scales in these two regions, but do these effects also penetrate to the more fine-grained scales of local communities? METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We carried out a cross-scale analysis to address this question for vascular plants in two mountain regions, the Alps in southern Europe and the Scandes in northern Europe, using environmentally paired vegetation plots in the two regions (n = 403 in each region to quantify four diversity components: (i total number of species occurring in a region (total γ-diversity, (ii number of species that could occur in a target plot after environmental filtering (habitat-specific γ-diversity, (iii pair-wise species compositional turnover between plots (plot-to-plot β-diversity and (iv number of species present per plot (plot α-diversity. We found strong region effects on total γ-diversity, habitat-specific γ-diversity and plot-to-plot β-diversity, with a greater diversity in the Alps even towards distances smaller than 50 m between plots. In contrast, there was a slightly greater plot α-diversity in the Scandes, but with a tendency towards contrasting region effects on high and low soil-acidity plots. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that there are strong regional differences between coarse-grained (landscape- to regional-scale diversity components of the flora in the Alps and the Scandes mountain ranges, but that these differences do not necessarily penetrate to the finest-grained (plot-scale diversity component, at least not on acidic soils. Our findings are consistent with the contrasting regional Quaternary histories, but we also consider alternative explanatory models. Notably, ecological sorting and habitat connectivity may play a role in the unexpected limited or reversed region effect on plot α-diversity, and may also affect the larger-scale diversity

Groundwater flow analysis on local scale. Setting boundary conditions for groundwater flow analysis on site scale model in step 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohyama, Takuya; Saegusa, Hiromitsu; Onoe, Hironori

2005-05-01

Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute has been conducting a wide range of geoscientific research in order to build a foundation for multidisciplinary studies of the deep geological environment as a basis of research and development for geological disposal of nuclear wastes. Ongoing geoscientific research programs include the Regional Hydrogeological Study (RHS) project and Mizunami Underground Research Laboratory (MIU) project in the Tono region, Gifu Prefecture. The main goal of these projects is to establish comprehensive techniques for investigation, analysis, and assessment of the deep geological environment at several spatial scales. The RHS project is a local scale study for understanding the groundwater flow system from the recharge area to the discharge area. The surface-based Investigation Phase of the MIU project is a site scale study for understanding the groundwater flow system immediately surrounding the MIU construction site. The MIU project is being conducted using a multiphase, iterative approach. In this study, the hydrogeological modeling and groundwater flow analysis of the local scale were carried out in order to set boundary conditions of the site scale model based on the data obtained from surface-based investigations in Step 1 in site scale of the MIU project. As a result of the study, head distribution to set boundary conditions for groundwater flow analysis on the site scale model could be obtained. (author)

Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

2016-01-01

Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

A study of regional-scale aerosol assimilation using a Stretch-NICAM

Science.gov (United States)

Misawa, S.; Dai, T.; Schutgens, N.; Nakajima, T.

2013-12-01

Although aerosol is considered to be harmful to human health and it became a social issue, aerosol models and emission inventories include large uncertainties. In recent studies, data assimilation is applied to aerosol simulation to get more accurate aerosol field and emission inventory. Most of these studies, however, are carried out only on global scale, and there are only a few researches about regional scale aerosol assimilation. In this study, we have created and verified an aerosol assimilation system on regional scale, in hopes to reduce an error associated with the aerosol emission inventory. Our aerosol assimilation system has been developed using an atmospheric climate model, NICAM (Non-hydrostaric ICosahedral Atmospheric Model; Satoh et al., 2008) with a stretch grid system and coupled with an aerosol transport model, SPRINTARS (Takemura et al., 2000). Also, this assimilation system is based on local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). To validate this system, we used a simulated observational data by adding some artificial errors to the surface aerosol fields constructed by Stretch-NICAM-SPRINTARS. We also included a small perturbation in original emission inventory. This assimilation with modified observational data and emission inventory was performed in Kanto-plane region around Tokyo, Japan, and the result indicates the system reducing a relative error of aerosol concentration by 20%. Furthermore, we examined a sensitivity of the aerosol assimilation system by varying the number of total ensemble (5, 10 and 15 ensembles) and local patch (domain) size (radius of 50km, 100km and 200km), both of which are the tuning parameters in LETKF. The result of the assimilation with different ensemble number 5, 10 and 15 shows that the larger the number of ensemble is, the smaller the relative error become. This is consistent with ensemble Kalman filter theory and imply that this assimilation system works properly. Also we found that assimilation system

Understanding the cone scale in Cupressaceae: insights from seed-cone teratology in Glyptostrobus pensilis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dörken, Veit Martin; Rudall, Paula J

2018-01-01

Both wild-type and teratological seed cones are described in the monoecious conifer Glyptostrobus pensilis and compared with those of other Cupressaceae sensu lato and other conifers. Some Cupressaceae apparently possess a proliferation of axillary structures in their cone scales. In our interpretation, in Glyptostrobus each bract of both typical and atypical seed cones bears two descending accessory shoots, interpreted here as seed scales (ovuliferous scales). The primary seed scale is fertile and forms the ovules, the second is sterile and forms characteristic tooth-like structures. The bract and the two axillary seed scales are each supplied with a single distinct vascular bundle that enters the cone axis as a separate strand; this vasculature also characterises the descending accessory short shoots in the vegetative parts of the crown. In wild-type seed cones, the fertile seed scale is reduced to its ovules, and the ovules are always axillary. In contrast, the ovules of some of the teratological seed cones examined were located at the centre of the cone scale. An additional tissue found on the upper surface of the sterile lower seed scale is here interpreted as the axis of the fertile seed scale. Thus, the central position of the ovules can be explained by recaulescent fusion of the upper fertile and lower sterile seed scales. In several teratological cone scales, the ovules were enveloped by an additional sterile tissue that is uniseriate and represents an epidermal outgrowth of the fertile seed scale. Close to the ovules, the epidermis was detached from lower tissue and surrounded the ovule completely, except at the micropyle. These teratological features are potentially significant in understanding seed-cone homologies among extant conifers.

Constraining the global carbon budget from global to regional scales - The measurement challenge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Francey, R.J.; Rayner, P.J.; Allison, C.E.

2002-01-01

The Global Carbon Cycle can be modelled by a Bayesian synthesis inversion technique, where measured atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and isotopic compositions are analysed by use of an atmospheric transport model and estimates of regional sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon. The uncertainty associated to carbon flux estimates even on a regional scale can be improved considerably using the inversion technique. In this approach, besides the necessary control on the precision of atmospheric transport models and on the constraints for surface fluxes, an important component is the calibration of atmospheric CO 2 concentration and isotope measurements. The recent improved situation in respect to data comparability is discussed using results of conducted interlaboratory comparison exercises and larger scale calibration programs are proposed for the future to further improve the comparability of analytical data. (author)

Towards the spatial coherence of biogeographical regionalizations at subcontinental and landscape scales

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Divíšek, Jan; Storch, D.; Zelený, D.; Culek, M.

2016-01-01

Roč. 43, č. 43 (2016), s. 2489-2501 ISSN 0305-0270 Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : beta diversity * biogeographical regions * spatial scale Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 4.248, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jbi.12832/full

The Transition Region Explorer: Observing the Multi-Scale Dynamics of Geospace

Science.gov (United States)

Donovan, E.

2015-12-01

Meso- and global-scale IT remote sensing is accomplished via satellite imagers and ground-based instruments. On the ground, the approach is arrays providing extensive as possible coverage (the "net") and powerful observatories that drill deep to provide detailed information about small-scale processes (the "drill"). Always, there is a trade between cost, spatial resolution, coverage (extent), number of parameters, and more, such that in general the larger the network the sparser the coverage. Where are we now? There are important gaps. With THEMIS-ASI, we see processes that quickly evolve beyond the field of view of one observatory, but involve space/time scales not captured by existing meso- and large-scale arrays. Many forefront questions require observations at heretofore unexplored space and time scales, and comprehensive inter-hemispheric conjugate observations than are presently available. To address this, a new ground-based observing initiative is being developed in Canada. Called TREx, for Transition Region Explorer, this new facility will incorporate dedicated blueline, redline, and Near-Infrared All-Sky Imagers, together with an unprecedented network of ten imaging riometers, with a combined field of view spanning more than three hours of magnetic local time and from equatorward to poleward of typical auroral latitudes (spanning the ionospheric footprint of the "nightside transition region" that separates the highly stretched tail and the inner magnetosphere). The TREx field-of-view is covered by HF radars, and contains a dense network of magnetometers and VLF receivers, as well as other geospace and upper atmospheric remote sensors. Taken together, TREx and these co-located instruments represent a quantum leap forward in terms of imaging, in multiple parameters (precipitation, ionization, convection, and currents), ionospheric dynamics in the above-mentioned scale gap. This represents an exciting new opportunity for studying geospace at the system level

Matching soil grid unit resolutions with polygon unit scales for DNDC modelling of regional SOC pool

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, H. D.; Yu, D. S.; Ni, Y. L.; Zhang, L. M.; Shi, X. Z.

2015-03-01

Matching soil grid unit resolution with polygon unit map scale is important to minimize uncertainty of regional soil organic carbon (SOC) pool simulation as their strong influences on the uncertainty. A series of soil grid units at varying cell sizes were derived from soil polygon units at the six map scales of 1:50 000 (C5), 1:200 000 (D2), 1:500 000 (P5), 1:1 000 000 (N1), 1:4 000 000 (N4) and 1:14 000 000 (N14), respectively, in the Tai lake region of China. Both format soil units were used for regional SOC pool simulation with DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) process-based model, which runs span the time period 1982 to 2000 at the six map scales, respectively. Four indices, soil type number (STN) and area (AREA), average SOC density (ASOCD) and total SOC stocks (SOCS) of surface paddy soils simulated with the DNDC, were attributed from all these soil polygon and grid units, respectively. Subjecting to the four index values (IV) from the parent polygon units, the variation of an index value (VIV, %) from the grid units was used to assess its dataset accuracy and redundancy, which reflects uncertainty in the simulation of SOC. Optimal soil grid unit resolutions were generated and suggested for the DNDC simulation of regional SOC pool, matching with soil polygon units map scales, respectively. With the optimal raster resolution the soil grid units dataset can hold the same accuracy as its parent polygon units dataset without any redundancy, when VIV indices was assumed as criteria to the assessment. An quadratic curve regression model y = -8.0 × 10-6x2 + 0.228x + 0.211 (R2 = 0.9994, p < 0.05) was revealed, which describes the relationship between optimal soil grid unit resolution (y, km) and soil polygon unit map scale (1:x). The knowledge may serve for grid partitioning of regions focused on the investigation and simulation of SOC pool dynamics at certain map scale.

Forest fragmentation and bird community dynamics: inference at regional scales

Science.gov (United States)

Boulinier, T.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Flather, C.H.; Pollock, K.H.

2001-01-01

With increasing fragmentation of natural areas and a dramatic reduction of forest cover in several parts of the world, quantifying the impact of such changes on species richness and community dynamics has been a subject of much concern. Here, we tested whether in more fragmented landscapes there was a lower number of area-sensitive species and higher local extinction and turnover rates, which could explain higher temporal variability in species richness. To investigate such potential landscape effects at a regional scale, we merged two independent, large-scale monitoring efforts: the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Land Use and Land Cover Classification data from the U.S. Geological Survey. We used methods that accounted for heterogeneity in the probability of detecting species to estimate species richness and temporal changes in the bird communities for BBS routes in three mid-Atlantic U.S. states. Forest breeding bird species were grouped prior to the analyses into area-sensitive and non-area-sensitive species according to previous studies. We tested predictions relating measures of forest structure at one point in time (1974) to species richness at that time and to parameters of forest bird community change over the following 22-yr-period (1975-1996). We used the mean size of forest patches to characterize landscape structure, as high correlations among landscape variables did not allow us to disentangle the relative roles of habitat fragmentation per se and habitat loss. As predicted, together with lower species richness for area-sensitive species on routes surrounded by landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size, we found higher mean year-to-year rates of local extinction. Moreover, the mean year-to-year rates of local turnover (proportion of locally new species) for area-sensitive species were also higher in landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size. These associations were not observed for the non-area-sensitive species group. These

Regional-scale analysis of lake outburst hazards in the southwestern Pamir, Tajikistan, based on remote sensing and GIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mergili

2011-05-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of the hazards emanating from the sudden drainage of alpine lakes in South-Western Tajik Pamir. In the last 40 yr, several new lakes have formed in the front of retreating glacier tongues, and existing lakes have grown. Other lakes are dammed by landslide deposits or older moraines. In 2002, sudden drainage of a glacial lake in the area triggered a catastrophic debris flow. Building on existing approaches, a rating scheme was devised allowing quick, regional-scale identification of potentially hazardous lakes and possible impact areas. This approach relies on GIS, remote sensing and empirical modelling, largely based on medium-resolution international datasets. Out of the 428 lakes mapped in the area, 6 were rated very hazardous and 34 hazardous. This classification was used for the selection of lakes requiring in-depth investigation. Selected cases are presented and discussed in order to understand the potentials and limitations of the approach used. Such an understanding is essential for the appropriate application of the methodology for risk mitigation purposes.

Invasive lionfish reduce native fish abundance on a regional scale

OpenAIRE

Ballew, Nicholas G.; Bacheler, Nathan M.; Kellison, G. Todd; Schueller, Amy M.

2016-01-01

Invasive lionfish pose an unprecedented threat to biodiversity and fisheries throughout Atlantic waters off of the southeastern United States, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico. Here, we employ a spatially replicated Before-After-Control-Impact analysis with temporal pairing to quantify for the first time the impact of the lionfish invasion on native fish abundance across a broad regional scale and over the entire duration of the lionfish invasion (1990?2014). Our results suggest that 1) ...

Adaptive Control of a Utility-Scale Wind Turbine Operating in Region 3

Science.gov (United States)

Frost, Susan A.; Balas, Mark J.; Wright, Alan D.

2009-01-01

Adaptive control techniques are well suited to nonlinear applications, such as wind turbines, which are difficult to accurately model and which have effects from poorly known operating environments. The turbulent and unpredictable conditions in which wind turbines operate create many challenges for their operation. In this paper, we design an adaptive collective pitch controller for a high-fidelity simulation of a utility scale, variable-speed horizontal axis wind turbine. The objective of the adaptive pitch controller in Region 3 is to regulate generator speed and reject step disturbances. The control objective is accomplished by collectively pitching the turbine blades. We use an extension of the Direct Model Reference Adaptive Control (DMRAC) approach to track a reference point and to reject persistent disturbances. The turbine simulation models the Controls Advanced Research Turbine (CART) of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado. The CART is a utility-scale wind turbine which has a well-developed and extensively verified simulator. The adaptive collective pitch controller for Region 3 was compared in simulations with a bas celliansesical Proportional Integrator (PI) collective pitch controller. In the simulations, the adaptive pitch controller showed improved speed regulation in Region 3 when compared with the baseline PI pitch controller and it demonstrated robustness to modeling errors.

When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benjamin Bergerot

Full Text Available Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known.And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales.In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Bergerot, Benjamin; Hugueny, Bernard; Belliard, Jérôme

2013-01-01

Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known. And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales. In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

A review of operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Kukkonen

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed in this article include how weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry models are integrated into chemical weather forecasting systems, how physical processes are incorporated into the models through parameterization schemes, how the model architecture affects the predicted variables, and how air chemistry and aerosol processes are formulated. In addition, we discuss sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the models, user operational requirements, such as model availability and documentation, and output availability and dissemination. In this manner, this article allows for the evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various modelling systems and modelling approaches. Finally, this article highlights the most prominent gaps of knowledge for chemical weather forecasting models and suggests potential priorities for future research directions, for the following selected focus areas: emission inventories, the integration of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport models, boundary conditions and nesting of models, data assimilation of the various chemical species, improved understanding and parameterization of physical processes, better evaluation of models against data and the construction of model ensembles.

Understanding the Functionality of Human Activity Hotspots from Their Scaling Pattern Using Trajectory Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tao Jia

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Human activity hotspots are the clusters of activity locations in space and time, and a better understanding of their functionality would be useful for urban land use planning and transportation. In this article, using trajectory data, we aim to infer the functionality of human activity hotspots from their scaling pattern in a reliable way. Specifically, a large number of stopping locations are extracted from trajectory data, which are then aggregated into activity hotspots. Activity hotspots are found to display scaling patterns in terms of the sublinear scaling relationships between the number of stopping locations and the number of points of interest (POIs, which indicates economies of scale of human interactions with urban land use. Importantly, this scaling pattern remains stable over time. This finding inspires us to devise an allometric ruler to identify the activity hotspots, whose functionality could be reliably estimated using the stopping locations. Thereafter, a novel Bayesian inference model is proposed to infer their urban functionality, which examines the spatial and temporal information of stopping locations covering 75 days. Experimental results suggest that the functionality of identified activity hotspots are reliably inferred by stopping locations, such as the railway station.

Toward an Understanding of Foreground Emission in the BICEP2 Region

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2014-01-01

BICEP2 has reported the detection of a degree-scale B-mode polarization pattern in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and has interpreted the measurement as evidence for primordial gravitational waves. Motivated by the profound importance of the discovery of gravitational waves from the early Universe, I will discuss to what extent a combination of Galactic foregrounds and lensed E-modes could be responsible for the signal. I will present independent estimates of the dust polarization signal in the BICEP2 region using several different approaches. These estimates of the dust polarization signal in the BICEP2 region are consistent with each other, but the expected amplitude of the dust polarization power spectrum is uncertain by about a factor of three. The lower end of the prediction leaves room for a primordial contribution, but at the higher end the dust in combination with the standard CMB lensing signal could account for the BICEP2 observations, without requiring the existence of primordial gravitatio...

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: remote versus local effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Devaraju, N; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

2015-03-17

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

Understanding the cone scale in Cupressaceae: insights from seed-cone teratology in Glyptostrobus pensilis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veit Martin Dörken

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Both wild-type and teratological seed cones are described in the monoecious conifer Glyptostrobus pensilis and compared with those of other Cupressaceae sensu lato and other conifers. Some Cupressaceae apparently possess a proliferation of axillary structures in their cone scales. In our interpretation, in Glyptostrobus each bract of both typical and atypical seed cones bears two descending accessory shoots, interpreted here as seed scales (ovuliferous scales. The primary seed scale is fertile and forms the ovules, the second is sterile and forms characteristic tooth-like structures. The bract and the two axillary seed scales are each supplied with a single distinct vascular bundle that enters the cone axis as a separate strand; this vasculature also characterises the descending accessory short shoots in the vegetative parts of the crown. In wild-type seed cones, the fertile seed scale is reduced to its ovules, and the ovules are always axillary. In contrast, the ovules of some of the teratological seed cones examined were located at the centre of the cone scale. An additional tissue found on the upper surface of the sterile lower seed scale is here interpreted as the axis of the fertile seed scale. Thus, the central position of the ovules can be explained by recaulescent fusion of the upper fertile and lower sterile seed scales. In several teratological cone scales, the ovules were enveloped by an additional sterile tissue that is uniseriate and represents an epidermal outgrowth of the fertile seed scale. Close to the ovules, the epidermis was detached from lower tissue and surrounded the ovule completely, except at the micropyle. These teratological features are potentially significant in understanding seed-cone homologies among extant conifers.

Environmental change and hydrological responses in the interior of western Canada: Towards improved understanding, diagnosis, and prediction by the Changing Cold Regions Network

Science.gov (United States)

DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Carey, S. K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Stewart, R. E.

2016-12-01

The past several decades have been a period of rapid climatic and environmental change. In western Canada, as in other areas globally, warming and changes in precipitation have led to vast reductions in seasonal snowcover and freshwater ice cover, retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, changing forest composition and structure, increasing northern shrub coverage, and earlier timing of river flows in spring. Yet streamflow volume has exhibited a variety of responses across the region and over different time scales, and patterns of change are not easily generalizable. Improved understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of the rapidly changing components of the Earth system are key to managing uncertain water futures, but this is challenging due to complex system behavior and sometimes compensatory responses. The Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) is a Canadian research network and GEWEX Regional Hydroclimate Project that is addressing these issues, with a geographic focus on the Saskatchewan and Mackenzie River basins. This paper will present examples of the changes that have been observed at a set of long-term and well-studied headwater research basins, and highlight how various processes confound hydrological responses here, pointing to the need for careful diagnosis. We will discuss some recent CCRN activities and progress toward improving conceptual understanding and developing scenarios of change for the 21st century, which can then be applied within process-based hydrological models for future prediction. Several priority research areas that will be a focus of continued work in CCRN will be recommended.

Regional-scale winter-spring temperature variability and chilling damage dynamics over the past two centuries in southeastern China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Duan, Jianping; Zhang, Qi-Bin; Lv, Lixin; Zhang, Chao [Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Beijing (China)

2012-08-15

Winter-spring cold extreme is a kind of serious natural disaster for southeastern China. As such events are recorded in discrete documents, long and continuous records are required to understand their characteristics and driving forces. Here we report a regional-scale winter-spring (January-April) temperature reconstruction based on a tree-ring network of pine trees (Pinus massoniana) from five sampling sites over a large spatial scale (25-29 N, 111-115 E) in southeastern China. The regional tree-ring chronology explains 48.6% of the instrumental temperature variance during the period 1957-2008. The reconstruction shows six relatively warm intervals (i.e., {proportional_to}1849-1855, {proportional_to}1871-1888, {proportional_to}1909-1920, {proportional_to}1939-1944, {proportional_to}1958-1968, 1997-2007) and five cold intervals (i.e., {proportional_to}1860-1870, {proportional_to}1893-1908, {proportional_to}1925-1934, {proportional_to}1945-1957, {proportional_to}1982-1996) during 1849-2008. The last decade and the 1930s were the warmest and coldest decades, respectively, in the past 160 years. The composite analysis of 500-hPa geopotential height fields reveals that distinctly different circulation patterns occurred in the instrumental and pre-instrumental periods. The winter-spring cold extremes in southeastern China are associated with Ural-High ridge pattern for the instrumental period (1957-2008), whereas the cold extremes in pre-instrumental period (1871-1956) are associated with North circulation pattern. (orig.)

Ripple scalings in geothermal facilities, a key to understand the scaling process

Science.gov (United States)

Köhl, Bernhard; Grundy, James; Baumann, Thomas

2017-04-01

Scalings are a widespread problem among geothermal plants which exploit the Malm Aquifer in the Bavarian Molasse Zone. They effect the technical and economic efficiency of geothermal plants. The majority of the scalings observed at geothermal facilities exploring the Malm aquifer in the Bavarian Molasse Basin are carbonates. They are formed due to a disruption of the lime-carbonic-acid equilibrium during production caused by degassing of CO2. These scalings are found in the production pipes, at the pumps and at filters and can nicely be described using existing hydrogeochemical models. This study proposes a second mechanism for the formation of scalings in ground-level facilities. We investigated scalings which accumulated at the inlet to the heat exchanger. Interestingly, the scalings were recovered after the ground level facilities had been cleaned. The scalings showed distinct ripple structures, which is likely a result of solid particle deposition. From the ripple features the the flow conditions during their formation were calculated based on empirical equations (Soulsby, 2012). The calculations suggest that the deposits were formed during maintenance works. Thin section images of the sediments indicate a two-step process: deposition of sediment grains, followed by stabilization with a calcite layer. The latter likely occured during maintenance. To prevent this type of scalings blocking the heat exchangers, the maintenance procedure has to be revised. References: Soulsby, R. L.; Whitehouse, R. J. S.; Marten, K. V.: Prediction of time-evolving sand ripples in shelf seas. Continental Shelf Research 2012, 38, 47-62

A Coupled fcGCM-GCE Modeling System: A 3D Cloud Resolving Model and a Regional Scale Model

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2005-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and ore sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (21CE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicity calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generation regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A Brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications), and (4) The characteristics of the four-dimensional cloud data

Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX: towards a holistic understanding of the feedbacks and interactions in the land–atmosphere–ocean–society continuum in the northern Eurasian region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. K. Lappalainen

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The northern Eurasian regions and Arctic Ocean will very likely undergo substantial changes during the next decades. The Arctic–boreal natural environments play a crucial role in the global climate via albedo change, carbon sources and sinks as well as atmospheric aerosol production from biogenic volatile organic compounds. Furthermore, it is expected that global trade activities, demographic movement, and use of natural resources will be increasing in the Arctic regions. There is a need for a novel research approach, which not only identifies and tackles the relevant multi-disciplinary research questions, but also is able to make a holistic system analysis of the expected feedbacks. In this paper, we introduce the research agenda of the Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX, a multi-scale, multi-disciplinary and international program started in 2012 (https://www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex/. PEEX sets a research approach by which large-scale research topics are investigated from a system perspective and which aims to fill the key gaps in our understanding of the feedbacks and interactions between the land–atmosphere–aquatic–society continuum in the northern Eurasian region. We introduce here the state of the art for the key topics in the PEEX research agenda and present the future prospects of the research, which we see relevant in this context.

Arctic Tundra Greening and Browning at Circumpolar and Regional Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Epstein, H. E.; Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Raynolds, M. K.; Yang, X.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing data have historically been used to assess the dynamics of arctic tundra vegetation. Until recently the scientific literature has largely described the "greening" of the Arctic; from a remote sensing perspective, an increase in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), or a similar satellite-based vegetation index. Vegetation increases have been heterogeneous throughout the Arctic, and were reported to be up to 25% in certain areas over a 30-year timespan. However, more recently, arctic tundra vegetation dynamics have gotten more complex, with observations of more widespread tundra "browning" being reported. We used a combination of remote sensing data, including the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS), as well as higher spatial resolution Landsat data, to evaluate the spatio-temporal patterns of arctic tundra vegetation dynamics (greening and browning) at circumpolar and regional scales over the past 3-4 decades. At the circumpolar scale, we focus on the spatial heterogeneity (by tundra subzone and continent) of tundra browning over the past 5-15 years, followed by a more recent recovery (greening since 2015). Landsat time series allow us to evaluate the landscape-scale heterogeneity of tundra greening and browning for northern Alaska and the Yamal Peninsula in northwestern Siberia, Russia. Multi-dataset analyses reveal that tundra greening and browning (i.e. increases or decreases in the NDVI respectively) are generated by different sets of processes. Tundra greening is largely a result of either climate warming, lengthening of the growing season, or responses to disturbances, such as fires, landslides, and freeze-thaw processes. Browning on the other hand tends to be more event-driven, such as the shorter-term decline in vegetation due to fire, insect defoliation, consumption by larger herbivores, or extreme weather events (e.g. winter warming or early summer frost damage). Browning can also be caused by local or

An empirical perspective for understanding climate change impacts in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Henne, Paul; Bigalke, Moritz; Büntgen, Ulf; Colombaroli, Daniele; Conedera, Marco; Feller, Urs; Frank, David; Fuhrer, Jürg; Grosjean, Martin; Heiri, Oliver; Luterbacher, Jürg; Mestrot, Adrien; Rigling, Andreas; Rössler, Ole; Rohr, Christian; Rutishauser, This; Schwikowski, Margit; Stampfli, Andreas; Szidat, Sönke; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Weingartner, Rolf; Wilcke, Wolfgan; Tinner, Willy

2018-01-01

Planning for the future requires a detailed understanding of how climate change affects a wide range of systems at spatial scales that are relevant to humans. Understanding of climate change impacts can be gained from observational and reconstruction approaches and from numerical models that apply existing knowledge to climate change scenarios. Although modeling approaches are prominent in climate change assessments, observations and reconstructions provide insights that cannot be derived from simulations alone, especially at local to regional scales where climate adaptation policies are implemented. Here, we review the wealth of understanding that emerged from observations and reconstructions of ongoing and past climate change impacts in Switzerland, with wider applicability in Europe. We draw examples from hydrological, alpine, forest, and agricultural systems, which are of paramount societal importance, and are projected to undergo important changes by the end of this century. For each system, we review existing model-based projections, present what is known from observations, and discuss how empirical evidence may help improve future projections. A particular focus is given to better understanding thresholds, tipping points and feedbacks that may operate on different time scales. Observational approaches provide the grounding in evidence that is needed to develop local to regional climate adaptation strategies. Our review demonstrates that observational approaches should ideally have a synergistic relationship with modeling in identifying inconsistencies in projections as well as avenues for improvement. They are critical for uncovering unexpected relationships between climate and agricultural, natural, and hydrological systems that will be important to society in the future.

Assessing the combined effect of dams and climate warming on streamflow in California's Sierra Nevada for regional-scale adaptation

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Rheinheimer, D. E.; Viers, J. H.

2012-12-01

Dams and their operations harm river ecosystems, in part by altering the natural flow regimes that those ecosystems depend on. In the multi-reservoir water management systems of California's Sierra Nevada, greater emphasis is being placed on re-operating existing reservoir systems to recover downstream ecosystems. However, climate change is changing inflow patterns, affecting both ecosystems and traditional water system benefits across the region. As new reservoir operation schemes will be needed to manage for natural resources management objectives at the regional scale, characterizing historical and future environmental impacts of current operations across the region can aid in prioritizing planning efforts. We used a coarse-scale water resources simulation model developed for the western Sierra Nevada to explore the independent and combined effects of dams and climate warming on the flow regime directly below reservoirs, the focal point for instream flow requirements in operations licenses. We quantified changes to mean annual flow, annual low flow duration, annual runoff centroid timing, and weekly rate of decrease under binary combinations of management (unregulated/regulated) and climate (historical/future) conditions. We demonstrate that although rivers in the Sierra Nevada are currently managed in ways that are harmful to instream ecosystems, and that streamflow effects of operations are typically much worse than climate change effects, there are signals that reservoirs can potentially be used to help adapt to some of climate changes harmful effects with little additional effort in some cases. This study is the first step toward a better understanding of the environmental costs from and opportunities afforded by the current stock of reservoirs in a large hydroregion under changing social and environmental conditions.

Interactions Between Atmospheric Aerosols and Marine Boundary Layer Clouds on Regional and Global Scales

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Wang, Zhen

Airborne aerosols are crucial atmospheric constituents that are involved in global climate change and human life qualities. Understanding the nature and magnitude of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions is critical in model predictions for atmospheric radiation budget and the water cycle. The interactions depend on a variety of factors including aerosol physicochemical complexity, cloud types, meteorological and thermodynamic regimes and data processing techniques. This PhD work is an effort to quantify the relationships among aerosol, clouds, and precipitation on both global and regional scales by using satellite retrievals and aircraft measurements. The first study examines spatial distributions of conversion rate of cloud water to rainwater in warm maritime clouds over the globe by using NASA A-Train satellite data. This study compares the time scale of the onset of precipitation with different aerosol categories defined by values of aerosol optical depth, fine mode fraction, and Angstrom Exponent. The results indicate that conversion time scales are actually quite sensitive to lower tropospheric static stability (LTSS) and cloud liquid water path (LWP), in addition to aerosol type. Analysis shows that tropical Pacific Ocean is dominated by the highest average conversion rate while subtropical warm cloud regions (far northeastern Pacific Ocean, far southeastern Pacific Ocean, Western Africa coastal area) exhibit the opposite result. Conversion times are mostly shorter for lower LTSS regimes. When LTSS condition is fixed, higher conversion rates coincide with higher LWP and lower aerosol index categories. After a general global view of physical property quantifications, the rest of the presented PhD studies is focused on regional airborne observations, especially bulk cloud water chemistry and aerosol aqueous-phase reactions during the summertime off the California coast. Local air mass origins are categorized into three distinct types (ocean, ships, and land

Developments in regional scale simulation: modelling ecologically sustainable development in the Northern Territory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moffatt, I.

1992-01-01

This paper outlines one way in which researchers can make a positive methodological contribution to the debate on ecologically sustainable development (ESD) by integrating dynamic modelling and geographical information systems to form the basis for regional scale simulations. Some of the orthodox uses of Geographic Information System (GIS) are described and it is argued that most applications do not incorporate process based causal models. A description of a pilot study into developing a processed base model of ESD in the Northern Territory is given. This dynamic process based simulation model consists of two regions namely the 'Top End' and the 'Central' district. Each region consists of ten sub-sectors and the pattern of land use represents a common sector to both regions. The role of environmental defence expenditure, including environmental rehabilitation of uranium mines, in the model is noted. Similarly, it is hypothesized that the impact of exogenous changes such as the greenhouse effect and global economic fluctuations can have a differential impact on the behaviour of several sectors of the model. Some of the problems associated with calibrating and testing the model are reviewed. Finally, it is suggested that further refinement of this model can be achieved with the pooling of data sets and the development of PC based transputers for more detailed and accurate regional scale simulations. When fully developed it is anticipated that this pilot model can be of service to environmental managers and other groups involved in promoting ESD in the Northern Territory. 54 refs., 6 figs

Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

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Alberto Muñoz

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Ecological Niche Models (ENMs are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models. Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles. Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural

Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Xavier; Felicísimo, Ángel M.

2016-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models). Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude) were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species) and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles). Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural parks. PMID

Comparison of the Scaling Properties of EUV Intensity Fluctuations in Coronal Holes to those in Regions of Quiet Sun

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Cadavid, Ana Cristina; Lawrence, John K.; Jennings, Peter John

2017-08-01

We investigate the scaling properties of EUV intensity fluctuations seen in low-latitude coronal holes (CH) and in regions of Quiet Sun (QS), in signals obtained with the SDO/AIA instrument in the 193 Å waveband. Contemporaneous time series in the 171 and 211 Å wavebands are used for comparison among emissions at different heights in the transition region and low corona. Potential-field extrapolations of contemporaneous SDO/HMI line-of-sight magnetic fields provide a context in the physical environment. Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) shows that the variance of the fluctuations obeys a power-law as a function of temporal scales with periods in the range ~15-60 min. This scaling is characterized by a generalized Hurst exponent α. In QS regions, and in regions within CHs that include magnetic bipoles, the scaling exponent lies in the range 1.0 anti-correlated, turbulent-like, dynamical processes. Regions inside the coronal holes primarily associated with magnetic field of a dominant single polarity, have a generalized exponent (0.5 correlated (“persistent”) processes. The results indicate the influence of the magnetic fields on the dynamics of the emission.

Top-down constraints on disturbance dynamics in the terrestrial carbon cycle: effects at global and regional scales

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Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.

2014-12-01

Large uncertainties preside over terrestrial carbon flux estimates on a global scale. In particular, the strongly coupled dynamics between net ecosystem productivity and disturbance C losses are poorly constrained. To gain an improved understanding of ecosystem C dynamics from regional to global scale, we apply a Markov Chain Monte Carlo based model-data-fusion approach into the CArbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM). We assimilate MODIS LAI and burned area, plant-trait data, and use the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) and maps of above ground biomass as prior knowledge for initial conditions. We optimize model parameters based on (a) globally spanning observations and (b) ecological and dynamic constraints that force single parameter values and parameter inter-dependencies to be representative of real world processes. We determine the spatial and temporal dynamics of major terrestrial C fluxes and model parameter values on a global scale (GPP = 123 +/- 8 Pg C yr-1 & NEE = -1.8 +/- 2.7 Pg C yr-1). We further show that the incorporation of disturbance fluxes, and accounting for their instantaneous or delayed effect, is of critical importance in constraining global C cycle dynamics, particularly in the tropics. In a higher resolution case study centred on the Amazon Basin we show how fires not only trigger large instantaneous emissions of burned matter, but also how they are responsible for a sustained reduction of up to 50% in plant uptake following the depletion of biomass stocks. The combination of these two fire-induced effects leads to a 1 g C m-2 d-1reduction in the strength of the net terrestrial carbon sink. Through our simulations at regional and global scale, we advocate the need to assimilate disturbance metrics in global terrestrial carbon cycle models to bridge the gap between globally spanning terrestrial carbon cycle data and the full dynamics of the ecosystem C cycle. Disturbances are especially important because their quick occurrence may have

Chapter 9: Carbon fluxes across regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Beverly E. Law; Dave Turner; John Campbell; Michael Lefsky; Michael Guzy; Osbert Sun; Steve Van Tuyl; Warren Cohen

2006-01-01

Scaling biogeochemical processes to regions, continents, and the globe is critical for understanding feedbacks between the biosphere and atmosphere in the analysis of global change. This includes the effects of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, disturbances, and increasing nitrogen deposition from air pollution (Ehleringer and Field 1993, Vitousek et al....

Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: Numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergamasco, A.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.; Budgell, W.P.

2005-01-01

Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays-a non-glacial period-appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution 01 working group I, n and In to the Third Assessment Report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense water formation sites ad as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus, 13 (1961) 224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean Jeep convection and open-sea ire formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and

Sentiment analysis methods for understanding large-scale texts: a case for using continuum-scored words and word shift graphs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew J Reagan

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract The emergence and global adoption of social media has rendered possible the real-time estimation of population-scale sentiment, an extraordinary capacity which has profound implications for our understanding of human behavior. Given the growing assortment of sentiment-measuring instruments, it is imperative to understand which aspects of sentiment dictionaries contribute to both their classification accuracy and their ability to provide richer understanding of texts. Here, we perform detailed, quantitative tests and qualitative assessments of 6 dictionary-based methods applied to 4 different corpora, and briefly examine a further 20 methods. We show that while inappropriate for sentences, dictionary-based methods are generally robust in their classification accuracy for longer texts. Most importantly they can aid understanding of texts with reliable and meaningful word shift graphs if (1 the dictionary covers a sufficiently large portion of a given text’s lexicon when weighted by word usage frequency; and (2 words are scored on a continuous scale.

Understanding local-scale drivers of biodiversity outcomes in terrestrial protected areas.

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Barnes, Megan D; Craigie, Ian D; Dudley, Nigel; Hockings, Marc

2017-07-01

Conservation relies heavily on protected areas (PAs) maintaining their key biodiversity features to meet global biodiversity conservation goals. However, PAs have had variable success, with many failing to fully maintain their biodiversity features. The current literature concerning what drives variability in PA performance is rapidly expanding but unclear, sometimes contradictory, and spread across multiple disciplines. A clear understanding of the drivers of successful biodiversity conservation in PAs is necessary to make them fully effective. Here, we conduct a comprehensive assessment of the current state of knowledge concerning the drivers of biological outcomes within PAs, focusing on those that can be addressed at local scales. We evaluate evidence in support of potential drivers to identify those that enable more successful outcomes and those that impede success and provide a synthetic review. Interactions are discussed where they are known, and we highlight gaps in understanding. We find that elements of PA design, management, and local and national governance challenges, species and system ecology, and sociopolitical context can all influence outcomes. Adjusting PA management to focus on actions and policies that influence the key drivers identified here could improve global biodiversity outcomes. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Scale size and life time of energy conversion regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet

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M. Hamrin

2009-11-01

Full Text Available In this article, and in a companion paper by Hamrin et al. (2009 [Occurrence and location of concentrated load and generator regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet], we investigate localized energy conversion regions (ECRs in Earth's plasma sheet. From more than 80 Cluster plasma sheet crossings (660 h data at the altitude of about 15–20 RE in the summer and fall of 2001, we have identified 116 Concentrated Load Regions (CLRs and 35 Concentrated Generator Regions (CGRs. By examining variations in the power density, E·J, where E is the electric field and J is the current density obtained by Cluster, we have estimated typical values of the scale size and life time of the CLRs and the CGRs. We find that a majority of the observed ECRs are rather stationary in space, but varying in time. Assuming that the ECRs are cylindrically shaped and equal in size, we conclude that the typical scale size of the ECRs is 2 RE≲ΔSECR≲5 RE. The ECRs hence occupy a significant portion of the mid altitude plasma sheet. Moreover, the CLRs appear to be somewhat larger than the CGRs. The life time of the ECRs are of the order of 1–10 min, consistent with the large scale magnetotail MHD simulations of Birn and Hesse (2005. The life time of the CGRs is somewhat shorter than for the CLRs. On time scales of 1–10 min, we believe that ECRs rise and vanish in significant regions of the plasma sheet, possibly oscillating between load and generator character. It is probable that at least some of the observed ECRs oscillate energy back and forth in the plasma sheet instead of channeling it to the ionosphere.

Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

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Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

2017-04-01

Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments

Regional versus local influences on lead and cadmium loading to the Great Lakes region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yohn, S.; Long, D.; Fett, J.; Patino, L. [Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI (United States). Dept. of Geological Science

2004-07-01

Environmental legislation has reduced the anthropogenic loadings of Pb and Cd to the Great Lakes region over the past 3 decades. However, the accumulation rates of these metals still remain above background values. Because environmental legislation was targeted at major sources (e.g., Pb in gasoline) whose influence on the environment was on a regional scale, local sources (e.g., watershed scale) for the metals may now play a more significant role. The relative importance of regional versus local scale influences on metal inputs to the environment is poorly understood. In this study, sediment chronologies of Pb and Cd were examined from 12 inland lakes that cover the broad geographic area of the State of Michigan. These chronologies were compared temporally and spatially and to watershed population densities and metal production records to gain an understanding of local and regional influences on metal inputs to the Great Lakes region. Results show that anthropogenic Pb loading during the 1930s and 1970s was dominated by regional sources. such as coal burning and use of leaded gasoline. Current loadings are now more related to local influences such as watershed population densities, rather than atmospheric deposition. Anthropogenic Cd loadings to the Great Lakes region have been dominated by both regional and local sources over time. Lead may also have shown the influence of local sources over time, if the influence of emissions from gasoline had not been present. This work shows that Pb and Cd loadings in the Great Lakes region are strongly related to watershed population densities; however, the specific sources and pathways for the metal cycling are unclear.

Characterizing and modelling river channel migration rates at a regional scale: Case study of south-east France.

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Alber, Adrien; Piégay, Hervé

2017-11-01

An increased awareness by river managers of the importance of river channel migration to sediment dynamics, habitat complexity and other ecosystem functions has led to an advance in the science and practice of identifying, protecting or restoring specific erodible corridors across which rivers are free to migrate. One current challenge is the application of these watershed-specific goals at the regional planning scales (e.g., the European Water Framework Directive). This study provides a GIS-based spatial analysis of the channel migration rates at the regional-scale. As a case study, 99 reaches were sampled in the French part of the Rhône Basin and nearby tributaries of the Mediterranean Sea (111,300 km 2 ). We explored the spatial correlation between the channel migration rate and a set of simple variables (e.g., watershed area, channel slope, stream power, active channel width). We found that the spatial variability of the channel migration rates was primary explained by the gross stream power (R 2  = 0.48) and more surprisingly by the active channel width scaled by the watershed area. The relationship between the absolute migration rate and the gross stream power is generally consistent with the published empirical models for freely meandering rivers, whereas it is less significant for the multi-thread reaches. The discussion focused on methodological constraints for a regional-scale modelling of the migration rates, and the interpretation of the empirical models. We hypothesize that the active channel width scaled by the watershed area is a surrogate for the sediment supply which may be a more critical factor than the bank resistance for explaining the regional-scale variability of the migration rates. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding healthcare innovation systems: the Stockholm region case.

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Larisch, Lisa-Marie; Amer-Wåhlin, Isis; Hidefjäll, Patrik

2016-11-21

Purpose There is an increasing interest in understanding how innovation processes can address current challenges in healthcare. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the wider socio-economic context and conditions for such innovation processes in the Stockholm region, using the functional dynamics approach to innovation systems (ISs). Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on triangulation using data from 16 in-depth interviews, two workshops, and additional documents. Using the functional dynamics approach, critical structural and functional components of the healthcare IS were analyzed. Findings The analysis revealed several mechanisms blocking innovation processes such as fragmentation, lack of clear leadership, as well as insufficient involvement of patients and healthcare professionals. Furthermore, innovation is expected to occur linearly as a result of research. Restrictive rules for collaboration with industry, reimbursement, and procurement mechanisms limit entrepreneurial experimentation, commercialization, and spread of innovations. Research limitations/implications In this study, the authors analyzed how certain functions of the functional dynamics approach to ISs related to each other. The authors grouped knowledge creation, resource mobilization, and legitimacy as they jointly constitute conditions for needs articulation and entrepreneurial experimentation. The economic effects of entrepreneurial experimentation and needs articulation are mainly determined by the stage of market formation and existence of positive externalities. Social implications Stronger user involvement; a joint innovation strategy for healthcare, academia, and industry; and institutional reform are necessary to remove blocking mechanisms that today prevent innovation from occurring. Originality/value This study is the first to provide an analysis of the system of innovation in healthcare using a functional dynamics approach, which has evolved as a tool for public

Using Climate Regionalization to Understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Precipitation Performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)

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Regonda, Satish K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Rodell, Matthew

2016-01-01

Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast SystemVersion 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction.

Understanding water deficit stress-induced changes in the basic metabolism of higher plants - biotechnologically and sustainably improving agriculture and the ecoenvironment in arid regions of the globe.

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, Hong-Bo; Chu, Li-Ye; Jaleel, C Abdul; Manivannan, P; Panneerselvam, R; Shao, Ming-An

2009-01-01

Water is vital for plant growth, development and productivity. Permanent or temporary water deficit stress limits the growth and distribution of natural and artificial vegetation and the performance of cultivated plants (crops) more than any other environmental factor. Productive and sustainable agriculture necessitates growing plants (crops) in arid and semiarid regions with less input of precious resources such as fresh water. For a better understanding and rapid improvement of soil-water stress tolerance in these regions, especially in the water-wind eroded crossing region, it is very important to link physiological and biochemical studies to molecular work in genetically tractable model plants and important native plants, and further extending them to practical ecological restoration and efficient crop production. Although basic studies and practices aimed at improving soil water stress resistance and plant water use efficiency have been carried out for many years, the mechanisms involved at different scales are still not clear. Further understanding and manipulating soil-plant water relationships and soil-water stress tolerance at the scales of ecology, physiology and molecular biology can significantly improve plant productivity and environmental quality. Currently, post-genomics and metabolomics are very important in exploring anti-drought gene resources in various life forms, but modern agriculturally sustainable development must be combined with plant physiological measures in the field, on the basis of which post-genomics and metabolomics have further practical prospects. In this review, we discuss physiological and molecular insights and effects in basic plant metabolism, drought tolerance strategies under drought conditions in higher plants for sustainable agriculture and ecoenvironments in arid and semiarid areas of the world. We conclude that biological measures are the bases for the solutions to the issues relating to the different types of

An improved anisotropy-resolving subgrid-scale model for flows in laminar–turbulent transition region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inagaki, Masahide; Abe, Ken-ichi

2017-01-01

Highlights: • An anisotropy-resolving subgrid-scale model, covering a wide range of grid resolutions, is improved. • The new model enhances its applicability to flows in the laminar-turbulent transition region. • A mixed-timescale subgrid-scale model is used as the eddy viscosity model. • The proposed model successfully predicts the channel flows at transitional Reynolds numbers. • The influence of the definition of the grid-filter width is also investigated. - Abstract: Some types of mixed subgrid-scale (SGS) models combining an isotropic eddy-viscosity model and a scale-similarity model can be used to effectively improve the accuracy of large eddy simulation (LES) in predicting wall turbulence. Abe (2013) has recently proposed a stabilized mixed model that maintains its computational stability through a unique procedure that prevents the energy transfer between the grid-scale (GS) and SGS components induced by the scale-similarity term. At the same time, since this model can successfully predict the anisotropy of the SGS stress, the predictive performance, particularly at coarse grid resolutions, is remarkably improved in comparison with other mixed models. However, since the stabilized anisotropy-resolving SGS model includes a transport equation of the SGS turbulence energy, k SGS , containing a production term proportional to the square root of k SGS , its applicability to flows with both laminar and turbulent regions is not so high. This is because such a production term causes k SGS to self-reproduce. Consequently, the laminar–turbulent transition region predicted by this model depends on the inflow or initial condition of k SGS . To resolve these issues, in the present study, the mixed-timescale (MTS) SGS model proposed by Inagaki et al. (2005) is introduced into the stabilized mixed model as the isotropic eddy-viscosity part and the production term in the k SGS transport equation. In the MTS model, the SGS turbulence energy, k es , estimated by

CO{sub 2} Sequestration Capacity and Associated Aspects of the Most Promising Geologic Formations in the Rocky Mountain Region: Local-Scale Analyses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laes, Denise; Eisinger, Chris; Morgan, Craig; Rauzi, Steve; Scholle, Dana; Scott, Phyllis; Lee, Si-Yong; Zaluski, Wade; Esser, Richard; Matthews, Vince; McPherson, Brian

2013-07-30

The purpose of this report is to provide a summary of individual local-­scale CCS site characterization studies conducted in Colorado, New Mexico and Utah. These site-­ specific characterization analyses were performed as part of the “Characterization of Most Promising Sequestration Formations in the Rocky Mountain Region” (RMCCS) project. The primary objective of these local-­scale analyses is to provide a basis for regional-­scale characterization efforts within each state. Specifically, limits on time and funding will typically inhibit CCS projects from conducting high-­ resolution characterization of a state-­sized region, but smaller (< 10,000 km{sup 2}) site analyses are usually possible, and such can provide insight regarding limiting factors for the regional-­scale geology. For the RMCCS project, the outcomes of these local-­scale studies provide a starting point for future local-­scale site characterization efforts in the Rocky Mountain region.

Lake nutrient stoichiometry is less predictable than nutrient concentrations at regional and sub-continental scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Sarah M; Oliver, Samantha K; Lapierre, Jean-Francois; Stanley, Emily H; Jones, John R; Wagner, Tyler; Soranno, Patricia A

2017-07-01

Production in many ecosystems is co-limited by multiple elements. While a known suite of drivers associated with nutrient sources, nutrient transport, and internal processing controls concentrations of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in lakes, much less is known about whether the drivers of single nutrient concentrations can also explain spatial or temporal variation in lake N:P stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry might be more complex than predicting concentrations of individual elements because some drivers have similar relationships with N and P, leading to a weak relationship with their ratio. Further, the dominant controls on elemental concentrations likely vary across regions, resulting in context dependent relationships between drivers, lake nutrients and their ratios. Here, we examine whether known drivers of N and P concentrations can explain variation in N:P stoichiometry, and whether explaining variation in stoichiometry differs across regions. We examined drivers of N:P in ~2,700 lakes at a sub-continental scale and two large regions nested within the sub-continental study area that have contrasting ecological context, including differences in the dominant type of land cover (agriculture vs. forest). At the sub-continental scale, lake nutrient concentrations were correlated with nutrient loading and lake internal processing, but stoichiometry was only weakly correlated to drivers of lake nutrients. At the regional scale, drivers that explained variation in nutrients and stoichiometry differed between regions. In the Midwestern U.S. region, dominated by agricultural land use, lake depth and the percentage of row crop agriculture were strong predictors of stoichiometry because only phosphorus was related to lake depth and only nitrogen was related to the percentage of row crop agriculture. In contrast, all drivers were related to N and P in similar ways in the Northeastern U.S. region, leading to weak relationships between drivers and stoichiometry

Simulating Complex, Cold-region Process Interactions Using a Multi-scale, Variable-complexity Hydrological Model

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-12-01

Accurate management of water resources is necessary for social, economic, and environmental sustainability worldwide. In locations with seasonal snowcovers, the accurate prediction of these water resources is further complicated due to frozen soils, solid-phase precipitation, blowing snow transport, and snowcover-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Complex process interactions and feedbacks are a key feature of hydrological systems and may result in emergent phenomena, i.e., the arising of novel and unexpected properties within a complex system. One example is the feedback associated with blowing snow redistribution, which can lead to drifts that cause locally-increased soil moisture, thus increasing plant growth that in turn subsequently impacts snow redistribution, creating larger drifts. Attempting to simulate these emergent behaviours is a significant challenge, however, and there is concern that process conceptualizations within current models are too incomplete to represent the needed interactions. An improved understanding of the role of emergence in hydrological systems often requires high resolution distributed numerical hydrological models that incorporate the relevant process dynamics. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) provides a novel tool for examining cold region hydrological systems. Key features include efficient terrain representation, allowing simulations at various spatial scales, reduced computational overhead, and a modular process representation allowing for an alternative-hypothesis framework. Using both physics-based and conceptual process representations sourced from long term process studies and the current cold regions literature allows for comparison of process representations and importantly, their ability to produce emergent behaviours. Examining the system in a holistic, process-based manner can hopefully derive important insights and aid in development of improved process representations.

Ground Level Ozone Regional Background Characteristics In North-west Pacific Rim

Science.gov (United States)

Chiang, C.; Fan, J.; Chang, J. S.

2007-12-01

Understanding the ground level ozone regional background characteristics is essential in understanding the contribution of long-range transport of pollutants from Asia Mainland to air quality in downwind areas. In order to understand this characteristic in north-west Pacific Rim, we conducted a coupled study using ozone observation from regional background stations and 3-D regional-scale chemical transport model simulations. We used O3, CO, wind speed and wind direction data from two regional background stations and ¡§other stations¡¨ over a ten year period and organized several numerical experiments to simulate one spring month in 2003 to obtain a deeper understanding. The so called ¡§other stations¡¨ had actually been named as background stations under various governmental auspices. But we found them to be often under strong influence of local pollution sources with strong diurnal or slightly longer time variations. We found that the Yonagunijima station (24.74 N, 123.02 E) and Heng-Chuen station (21.96 N,120.78 E), about a distance of 400 km apart, have almost the same ozone time series pattern. For these two stations in 2003, correlation coefficients (R2) for annual observed ozone concentration is about 0.64, in the springtime it is about 0.7, and in a one-month period at simulation days it is about 0.76. These two stations have very little small scale variations in all the variables studied. All variations are associated with large scale circulation changes. This is especially so at Yonagunijima station. Using a 3-D regional-scale chemical transport model for East Asia region including contribution from Asia continental outflow and neighboring island pollution areas we found that the Yonagunijima and HengChuen station are indeed free of pollutants from all neighboring areas keeping in mind that pollutants from Taiwan area is never far away. Ozone concentrations in these two stations are dominated by synoptic scale weather patterns, with diffused

Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Chatta, Ashfaq Ahmad; Ewert, Frank; Folberth, Christian; Hathie, Ibrahima; Havlik, Petr; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; MacCarthy, Dilys S.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Contreras, Erik Mencos; Müller, Christoph; Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio; Phillips, Meridel; Porter, Cheryl; Raymundo, Rubi M.; Sands, Ronald D.; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Valin, Hugo; Wiebe, Keith

2018-05-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in

Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Chatta, Ashfaq Ahmad; Ewert, Frank; Folberth, Christian; Hathie, Ibrahima; Havlik, Petr; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; MacCarthy, Dilys S; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Contreras, Erik Mencos; Müller, Christoph; Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio; Phillips, Meridel; Porter, Cheryl; Raymundo, Rubi M; Sands, Ronald D; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Valdivia, Roberto O; Valin, Hugo; Wiebe, Keith

2018-05-13

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO 2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in

Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A

2016-01-01

Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This

Raft cultivation area extraction from high resolution remote sensing imagery by fusing multi-scale region-line primitive association features

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Min; Cui, Qi; Wang, Jie; Ming, Dongping; Lv, Guonian

2017-01-01

In this paper, we first propose several novel concepts for object-based image analysis, which include line-based shape regularity, line density, and scale-based best feature value (SBV), based on the region-line primitive association framework (RLPAF). We then propose a raft cultivation area (RCA) extraction method for high spatial resolution (HSR) remote sensing imagery based on multi-scale feature fusion and spatial rule induction. The proposed method includes the following steps: (1) Multi-scale region primitives (segments) are obtained by image segmentation method HBC-SEG, and line primitives (straight lines) are obtained by phase-based line detection method. (2) Association relationships between regions and lines are built based on RLPAF, and then multi-scale RLPAF features are extracted and SBVs are selected. (3) Several spatial rules are designed to extract RCAs within sea waters after land and water separation. Experiments show that the proposed method can successfully extract different-shaped RCAs from HR images with good performance.

From Fancy to Reason: Scaling Deaf and Hearing Children’s Understanding of Theory of Mind and Pretence

OpenAIRE

Peterson, Candida C.; Wellman, Henry M.

2009-01-01

We examined deaf and hearing children’s progression of steps in theory-of-mind (ToM) development including their understanding of social pretending. Ninety-three children (33 deaf; 60 hearing) aged 3 to 13 years were tested on a set of six closely-matched ToM tasks. Results showed that deaf children were delayed substantially behind hearing children in understanding pretending, false belief and other ToM concepts, in line with their delayed uptake of social pretend play. By using a scaling me...

Using GPS and GRACE data to assess Solid Earth elastic parameters at regional scale

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Borghi, A.; Aoudia, A.

2012-01-01

We propose a way to combine GPS and GRACE data for regional scale cross check and validation especially of the most commonly used PREM (Preliminary Earth Reference Model). In form of h and k Love numbers, global PREM is very often used to simulate elastic rebound due to present-day ice mass loss......, to derive the mass distribution produced by the observed GRACE time series, and it is also used for atmospheric loading correction both in GPS and in GRACE dealiasing products. GRACE data provide load estimates, usually given as water equivalent mass distribution, from which one derives the Earth elastic...... response, by convolution with suitable elastic green functions, relying on selected Earth model and related layering and elastic parameters. We calculate at regional scale the time series of monthly uplift associated with the mass redistribution observed by GRACE implementing the high resolution technique...

Regional processes in mangrove ecosystems: Spatial scaling relationships, biomass, and turnover rates following catastrophic disturbance

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, G.A.; Smith, T. J.; Whelan, K.R.T.; Doyle, T.W.

2006-01-01

Physiological processes and local-scale structural dynamics of mangroves are relatively well studied. Regional-scale processes, however, are not as well understood. Here we provide long-term data on trends in structure and forest turnover at a large scale, following hurricane damage in mangrove ecosystems of South Florida, U.S.A. Twelve mangrove vegetation plots were monitored at periodic intervals, between October 1992 and March 2005. Mangrove forests of this region are defined by a -1.5 scaling relationship between mean stem diameter and stem density, mirroring self-thinning theory for mono-specific stands. This relationship is reflected in tree size frequency scaling exponents which, through time, have exhibited trends toward a community average that is indicative of full spatial resource utilization. These trends, together with an asymptotic standing biomass accumulation, indicate that coastal mangrove ecosystems do adhere to size-structured organizing principles as described for upland tree communities. Regenerative dynamics are different between areas inside and outside of the primary wind-path of Hurricane Andrew which occurred in 1992. Forest dynamic turnover rates, however, are steady through time. This suggests that ecological, more-so than structural factors, control forest productivity. In agreement, the relative mean rate of biomass growth exhibits an inverse relationship with the seasonal range of porewater salinities. The ecosystem average in forest scaling relationships may provide a useful investigative tool of mangrove community biomass relationships, as well as offer a robust indicator of general ecosystem health for use in mangrove forest ecosystem management and restoration. ?? Springer 2006.

Estimating the size of the cavity and surrounding failed region for underground nuclear explosions from scaling rules

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rogers, Leo A [El Paso Natural Gas Company (United States)

1970-05-01

The fundamental physical principles involved in the formation of an underground cavity by a nuclear explosion and breakage of the rock surrounding the cavity are examined from the point of view of making preliminary estimates of their sizes where there is a limited understanding of the rock characteristics. Scaling equations for cavity formation based on adiabatic expansion are reviewed and further developed to include the strength of the material surrounding the shot point as well as the overburden above the shot point. The region of rock breakage or permanent distortion surround ing the explosion generated cavity is estimated using both the Von Mises and Coulomb-Mohr failure criteria. It is found that the ratio of the rock failure radius to the cavity radius for these two criteria becomes independent of yield and dependent only on the failure mechanics of the rock. The analytical solutions developed for the Coulomb-Mohr and Von Mises criteria are presented in graphical form. (author)

Shadowing in the scaling region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaw, G.

1989-01-01

The approximate scaling behaviour of the shadowing effect at small χ, recently observed in deep inelastic muon scattering experiments on nuclei, is shown to arise naturally at very large ν in those hadron dominance models, formulated many years ago, which are dual to the parton model. At smaller ν small scale breaking effects are expected, which sould die away as ν increases. The predicted shadowing decreases rapidly with increasing χ, at a rate which is only weakly dependent on the atomic number A for reasonably large A. (orig.)

Grassland/atmosphere response to changing climate: Coupling regional and local scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coughenour, M.B.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Pielke, R.A.; Eastman, J.

1993-10-01

The objectives of the study were: to evaluate the response of grassland ecosystems to atmospheric change at regional and site scales, and to develop multiscaled modeling systems to relate ecological and atmospheric models with different spatial and temporal resolutions. A menu-driven shell was developed to facilitate use of models at different temporal scales and to facilitate exchange information between models at different temporal scales. A detailed ecosystem model predicted that C 3 temperate grasslands wig respond more strongly to elevated CO 2 than temperate C 4 grasslands in the short-term while a large positive N-PP response was predicted for a C 4 Kenyan grassland. Long-term climate change scenarios produced either decreases or increases in Colorado plant productivity (NPP) depending on rainfall, but uniform increases in N-PP were predicted in Kenya. Elevated CO 2 is likely to have little effect on ecosystem carbon storage in Colorado while it will increase carbon storage in Kenya. A synoptic climate classification processor (SCP) was developed to evaluate results of GCM climate sensitivity experiments. Roughly 80% agreement was achieved with manual classifications. Comparison of lx and 2xCO 2 GCM Simulations revealed relatively small differences

A regional multi-scale 3-D geological model of the Eastern Sub-Athabasca Basement, Canada: Implications for vectoring towards unconformity-type uranium deposits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Annesley, I.; Reilkoff, B.; Takacs, E.; Hajnal, Z.; Pandit, B.

2014-01-01

The Proterozoic Athabasca Basin of northern Saskatchewan is one of the most important mining districts in Canada; hosting the world’s highest grade uranium deposits and prospects. In the basin, many of the near-surface deposits have been discovered; hence new ore deposits at greater depths need to be discovered. To help make new discoveries, 3D geological modelling is being carried out. Here, we present our multidisciplinary approach, whereby a 3D geological model of the eastern sub- Athabasca basement of northern Saskatchewan (i.e. the eastern and western Wollaston domains, the Wollaston-Mudjatik Transition Zone (WMTZ), and the Mudjatik Domain) was developed in the common earth environment. The project was directed towards building a robust 3D model(s) of the upper 3-5 km of the Earth’s crust in three different scales: deposit-, district-, and regional-scale, using the GOCAD software platform (Paradigm). Our eastern sub-Athabasca basement model is constrained by both geological studies and geophysical techniques, such as topographic, outcrop, drill hole, petrophysical, and petrological data, along with geophysical potential field, electrical, and highresolution regional seismic data, in order to better understand the regional- to district-scale tectonics and controls on the uranium mineral system(s) operating pre-, syn-, and post-Athabasca deposition. The resulting data were interpreted and visualized as 3D-surfaces and bodies in GOCAD. This model reveals a framework of key lithological contacts, major high-strain zones, and the setting of unconformity-type uranium deposits. As a result, this new knowledge is being used to identify key exploration vectoring criteria for unconformity-type, magmatic, and metamorphic/ metasomatic uranium deposits and to delineate new exploration targets in the basin. Hence, this regional-scale 3D GOCAD model can be utilized as a guide for exploration activities within the region (e.g. picking new drill targets). As well, this 3D

Scale size and life time of energy conversion regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Hamrin

2009-11-01

Full Text Available In this article, and in a companion paper by Hamrin et al. (2009 [Occurrence and location of concentrated load and generator regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet], we investigate localized energy conversion regions (ECRs in Earth's plasma sheet. From more than 80 Cluster plasma sheet crossings (660 h data at the altitude of about 15–20 R_E in the summer and fall of 2001, we have identified 116 Concentrated Load Regions (CLRs and 35 Concentrated Generator Regions (CGRs. By examining variations in the power density, E·J, where E is the electric field and J is the current density obtained by Cluster, we have estimated typical values of the scale size and life time of the CLRs and the CGRs. We find that a majority of the observed ECRs are rather stationary in space, but varying in time. Assuming that the ECRs are cylindrically shaped and equal in size, we conclude that the typical scale size of the ECRs is 2 R_E≲ΔS_ECR≲5 R_E. The ECRs hence occupy a significant portion of the mid altitude plasma sheet. Moreover, the CLRs appear to be somewhat larger than the CGRs. The life time of the ECRs are of the order of 1–10 min, consistent with the large scale magnetotail MHD simulations of Birn and Hesse (2005. The life time of the CGRs is somewhat shorter than for the CLRs. On time scales of 1–10 min, we believe that ECRs rise and vanish in significant regions of the plasma sheet, possibly oscillating between load and generator character. It is probable that at least some of the observed ECRs oscillate energy back and forth in the plasma sheet instead of channeling it to the ionosphere.

Regional Landscape System Protection in the Urbanising Desert Southwest: Lessons from the Phoenix Metropolitan Region, USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Musacchio

2004-06-01

Full Text Available Since the late nineteenth century, landscape protection in the deserts of the Southwest, United States of America, like many places worldwide, has been driven by the conservation of landscape icons, such as unusual geological features in wilderness areas. Yet, in the past two decades, leading conservation scholars worldwide have called for a shift in this paradigm to one that emphasises landscape systems, which is based on holistic landscape ecology. The shift in emphas is to landscape systems opens new opportunities to protect desert landscape systems at the regional scale rather than just remnant patches at the local scale. In this paper, the authors present, for public consideration, a typology of the five major desert landscapes that can be used as the bas is for protecting regional landscape systems in the deserts of the Southwest. As a case study, several representative examples of recent regional open space plans from the Phoenix metropolitan area are analysed and compared with the typology in order to understand how successfully the projects have addressed protection of the regional landscape system in the Sonoran Desert.

Experimental evidence of widespread regions of small-scale plasma irregularities in the magnetosphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmgren, G.; Kintner, P.M.

1990-01-01

Small-scale (≤ 1 km) plasma irregularities have previously been observed in situ from the E region to an altitude of 8,000 km. In this paper the authors report results from the Viking plasma wave experiments which extends the measurements of high-latitude irregularities in two ways: (1) they have acquired electron density fluctuation measurements up to an altitude of 13,500 km and (2) for the first time a measurement technique was used that made a phase velocity deduction possible from in situ measurements. The spacecraft was equipped with two spatially separated Langmuir probes, each with an ability to measure relative probe current fluctuations with frequencies from dc to about 400 Hz. Under certain assumptions the current fluctuations could be interpreted as relative plasma density fluctuations, δn e /n e . Data from this interferometric instrument has been used to infer the distribution and nature of plasma irregularities along Viking orbits. It is demonstrated that the interferometric technique offers great advantages compared to single point measurements in this kind of study. It is shown that the observed small-scale plasma irregularities are nondispersive and convecting with the background plasma. They exhibit a power law frequency spectrum as observed in the satellite reference frame. The spectral index varies with location. An attempt to map source regions by identifying regions of high power and shallow spectrums is made

Evaluation of Tsunami Run-Up on Coastal Areas at Regional Scale

Science.gov (United States)

González, M.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Gutiérrez, O.

2017-12-01

Tsunami hazard assessment is tackled by means of numerical simulations, giving as a result, the areas flooded by tsunami wave inland. To get this, some input data is required, i.e., the high resolution topobathymetry of the study area, the earthquake focal mechanism parameters, etc. The computational cost of these kinds of simulations are still excessive. An important restriction for the elaboration of large scale maps at National or regional scale is the reconstruction of high resolution topobathymetry on the coastal zone. An alternative and traditional method consists of the application of empirical-analytical formulations to calculate run-up at several coastal profiles (i.e. Synolakis, 1987), combined with numerical simulations offshore without including coastal inundation. In this case, the numerical simulations are faster but some limitations are added as the coastal bathymetric profiles are very simply idealized. In this work, we present a complementary methodology based on a hybrid numerical model, formed by 2 models that were coupled ad hoc for this work: a non-linear shallow water equations model (NLSWE) for the offshore part of the propagation and a Volume of Fluid model (VOF) for the areas near the coast and inland, applying each numerical scheme where they better reproduce the tsunami wave. The run-up of a tsunami scenario is obtained by applying the coupled model to an ad-hoc numerical flume. To design this methodology, hundreds of worldwide topobathymetric profiles have been parameterized, using 5 parameters (2 depths and 3 slopes). In addition, tsunami waves have been also parameterized by their height and period. As an application of the numerical flume methodology, the coastal parameterized profiles and tsunami waves have been combined to build a populated database of run-up calculations. The combination was tackled by means of numerical simulations in the numerical flume The result is a tsunami run-up database that considers real profiles shape

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

OpenAIRE

D. C. Verdon-Kidd; A. S. Kiem

2009-01-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a cl...

Evaluation of the regional climate response in Australia to large-scale climate modes in the historical NARCliM simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Fita, L.; Evans, J. P.; Argüeso, D.; King, A.; Liu, Y.

2017-10-01

NARCliM (New South Wales (NSW)/Australian Capital Territory (ACT) Regional Climate Modelling project) is a regional climate modeling project for the Australian area. It is providing a comprehensive dynamically downscaled climate dataset for the CORDEX-AustralAsia region at 50-km resolution, and south-East Australia at a resolution of 10 km. The first phase of NARCliM produced 60-year long reanalysis driven regional simulations to allow evaluation of the regional model performance. This long control period (1950-2009) was used so that the model ability to capture the impact of large scale climate modes on Australian climate could be examined. Simulations are evaluated using a gridded observational dataset. Results show that using model independence as a criteria for choosing atmospheric model configuration from different possible sets of parameterizations may contribute to the regional climate models having different overall biases. The regional models generally capture the regional climate response to large-scale modes better than the driving reanalysis, though no regional model improves on all aspects of the simulated climate.

Regional-scale modeling of near-ground ozone in the Central East China, source attributions and an assessment of outflow to East Asia The role of regional-scale transport during MTX2006

Science.gov (United States)

Li, J.; Wang, Z.; Akimoto, H.; Yamaji, K.; Takigawa, M.; Pochanart, P.; Liu, Y.; Kanaya, Y.

2008-07-01

A 3-D regional chemical transport model, the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System (NAQPMS), with an on-line tracer tagging module was applied to study the source of the near-ground (pollutants. In particular, the model captured highly polluted and clean cases well. The simulated near-ground ozone over CEC is 60 85 ppbv (parts per billion by volume), higher than those (20 50 ppbv) in Japan and over the North Pacific. The simulated tagged tracer indicates that the regional-scale transport of chemically produced ozone over other areas in CEC contributes to the most fractions (49%) of the near-ground mean ozone at Mt. Tai in June, rather than the in-situ photochemistry (12%). Due to high anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, the contributions of the ground ozone from the southern part of CEC plays the most important role (32.4 ppbv, 37.9% of total ozone) in the monthly mean ozone concentration at Mt. Tai, which even reached 59 ppbv (62%) on 6 7 June 2006. The monthly mean horizontal distribution of chemically produced ozone from various source regions indicates that the spatial distribution of O3 over CEC is controlled by the photochemical reactions. In addition, the regional-scale transport of pollutants also plays an important role in the spatial and temporal distribution of ozone over CEC. The chemically produced ozone from the southern part of the study region can be transported northeastwardly to the northern rim of CEC. The mean contribution is 5 10 ppbv, and it can reach 25 ppbv during high ozone events. This work also studied the outflow of CEC ozone and its precursors, as well as their influences and contributions to the ozone level over adjacent regions/countries. It shows that the contribution of CEC ozone to mean ozone mixing ratios over Korea Peninsula and Japan is 5 15 ppbv, of which about half was due to the direct transport of ozone from CEC and half was contributed by the ozone produced locally by the transported ozone precursors from CEC.

Application of Satellite Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence to Understanding Large-Scale Variations in Vegetation Phenology and Function Over Northern High Latitude Forests

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, Su-Jong; Schimel, David; Frankenberg, Christian; Drewry, Darren T.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Verma, Manish; Berry, Joseph A.; Lee, Jung-Eun; Joiner, Joanna

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the large-scale seasonal phenology and physiology of vegetation over northern high latitude forests (40 deg - 55 deg N) during spring and fall by using remote sensing of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and observation-based estimate of gross primary productivity (GPP) from 2009 to 2011. Based on GPP phenology estimation in GPP, the growing season determined by SIF time-series is shorter in length than the growing season length determined solely using NDVI. This is mainly due to the extended period of high NDVI values, as compared to SIF, by about 46 days (+/-11 days), indicating a large-scale seasonal decoupling of physiological activity and changes in greenness in the fall. In addition to phenological timing, mean seasonal NDVI and SIF have different responses to temperature changes throughout the growing season. We observed that both NDVI and SIF linearly increased with temperature increases throughout the spring. However, in the fall, although NDVI linearly responded to temperature increases, SIF and GPP did not linearly increase with temperature increases, implying a seasonal hysteresis of SIF and GPP in response to temperature changes across boreal ecosystems throughout their growing season. Seasonal hysteresis of vegetation at large-scales is consistent with the known phenomena that light limits boreal forest ecosystem productivity in the fall. Our results suggest that continuing measurements from satellite remote sensing of both SIF and NDVI can help to understand the differences between, and information carried by, seasonal variations vegetation structure and greenness and physiology at large-scales across the critical boreal regions.

Large Scale Skill in Regional Climate Modeling and the Lateral Boundary Condition Scheme

Science.gov (United States)

Veljović, K.; Rajković, B.; Mesinger, F.

2009-04-01

Several points are made concerning the somewhat controversial issue of regional climate modeling: should a regional climate model (RCM) be expected to maintain the large scale skill of the driver global model that is supplying its lateral boundary condition (LBC)? Given that this is normally desired, is it able to do so without help via the fairly popular large scale nudging? Specifically, without such nudging, will the RCM kinetic energy necessarily decrease with time compared to that of the driver model or analysis data as suggested by a study using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)? Finally, can the lateral boundary condition scheme make a difference: is the almost universally used but somewhat costly relaxation scheme necessary for a desirable RCM performance? Experiments are made to explore these questions running the Eta model in two versions differing in the lateral boundary scheme used. One of these schemes is the traditional relaxation scheme, and the other the Eta model scheme in which information is used at the outermost boundary only, and not all variables are prescribed at the outflow boundary. Forecast lateral boundary conditions are used, and results are verified against the analyses. Thus, skill of the two RCM forecasts can be and is compared not only against each other but also against that of the driver global forecast. A novel verification method is used in the manner of customary precipitation verification in that forecast spatial wind speed distribution is verified against analyses by calculating bias adjusted equitable threat scores and bias scores for wind speeds greater than chosen wind speed thresholds. In this way, focusing on a high wind speed value in the upper troposphere, verification of large scale features we suggest can be done in a manner that may be more physically meaningful than verifications via spectral decomposition that are a standard RCM verification method. The results we have at this point are somewhat

AQMEII3 evaluation of regional NA/EU simulations and analysis of scale, boundary conditions and emissions error-dependence

Science.gov (United States)

Through the comparison of several regional-scale chemistry transport modelling systems that simulate meteorology and air quality over the European and American continents, this study aims at i) apportioning the error to the responsible processes using time-scale analysis, ii) hel...

Research on a Small Signal Stability Region Boundary Model of the Interconnected Power System with Large-Scale Wind Power

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenying Liu

2015-03-01

Full Text Available For the interconnected power system with large-scale wind power, the problem of the small signal stability has become the bottleneck of restricting the sending-out of wind power as well as the security and stability of the whole power system. Around this issue, this paper establishes a small signal stability region boundary model of the interconnected power system with large-scale wind power based on catastrophe theory, providing a new method for analyzing the small signal stability. Firstly, we analyzed the typical characteristics and the mathematic model of the interconnected power system with wind power and pointed out that conventional methods can’t directly identify the topological properties of small signal stability region boundaries. For this problem, adopting catastrophe theory, we established a small signal stability region boundary model of the interconnected power system with large-scale wind power in two-dimensional power injection space and extended it to multiple dimensions to obtain the boundary model in multidimensional power injection space. Thirdly, we analyzed qualitatively the topological property’s changes of the small signal stability region boundary caused by large-scale wind power integration. Finally, we built simulation models by DIgSILENT/PowerFactory software and the final simulation results verified the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed model.

The influence of fine-scale habitat features on regional variation in population performance of alpine White-tailed Ptarmigan

Science.gov (United States)

Fedy, B.; Martin, K.

2011-01-01

It is often assumed (explicitly or implicitly) that animals select habitat features to maximize fitness. However, there is often a mismatch between preferred habitats and indices of individual and population measures of performance. We examined the influence of fine-scale habitat selection on the overall population performance of the White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), an alpine specialist, in two subdivided populations whose habitat patches are configured differently. The central region of Vancouver Island, Canada, has more continuous and larger habitat patches than the southern region. In 2003 and 2004, using paired logistic regression between used (n = 176) and available (n = 324) sites, we identified food availability, distance to standing water, and predator cover as preferred habitat components . We then quantified variation in population performance in the two regions in terms of sex ratio, age structure (n = 182 adults and yearlings), and reproductive success (n = 98 females) on the basis of 8 years of data (1995-1999, 2002-2004). Region strongly influenced females' breeding success, which, unsuccessful hens included, was consistently higher in the central region (n = 77 females) of the island than in the south (n = 21 females, P = 0.01). The central region also had a much higher proportion of successful hens (87%) than did the south (55%, P < 0.001). In light of our findings, we suggest that population performance is influenced by a combination of fine-scale habitat features and coarse-scale habitat configuration. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2011.

Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

2014-05-01

Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide

Regional-scale lateral carbon transport and CO2 evasion in temperate stream catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Magin, Katrin; Somlai-Haase, Celia; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Lorke, Andreas

2017-11-01

Inland waters play an important role in regional to global-scale carbon cycling by transporting, processing and emitting substantial amounts of carbon, which originate mainly from their catchments. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between terrestrial net primary production (NPP) and the rate at which carbon is exported from the catchments in a temperate stream network. The analysis included more than 200 catchment areas in southwest Germany, ranging in size from 0.8 to 889 km2 for which CO2 evasion from stream surfaces and downstream transport with stream discharge were estimated from water quality monitoring data, while NPP in the catchments was obtained from a global data set based on remote sensing. We found that on average 13.9 g C m-2 yr-1 (corresponding to 2.7 % of terrestrial NPP) are exported from the catchments by streams and rivers, in which both CO2 evasion and downstream transport contributed about equally to this flux. The average carbon fluxes in the catchments of the study area resembled global and large-scale zonal mean values in many respects, including NPP, stream evasion and the carbon export per catchment area in the fluvial network. A review of existing studies on aquatic-terrestrial coupling in the carbon cycle suggests that the carbon export per catchment area varies in a relatively narrow range, despite a broad range of different spatial scales and hydrological characteristics of the study regions.

Modeling and validation of on-road CO2 emissions inventories at the urban regional scale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brondfield, Max N.; Hutyra, Lucy R.; Gately, Conor K.; Raciti, Steve M.; Peterson, Scott A.

2012-01-01

On-road emissions are a major contributor to rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. In this study, we applied a downscaling methodology based on commonly available spatial parameters to model on-road CO 2 emissions at the 1 × 1 km scale for the Boston, MA region and tested our approach with surface-level CO 2 observations. Using two previously constructed emissions inventories with differing spatial patterns and underlying data sources, we developed regression models based on impervious surface area and volume-weighted road density that could be scaled to any resolution. We found that the models accurately reflected the inventories at their original scales (R 2 = 0.63 for both models) and exhibited a strong relationship with observed CO 2 mixing ratios when downscaled across the region. Moreover, the improved spatial agreement of the models over the original inventories confirmed that either product represents a viable basis for downscaling in other metropolitan regions, even with limited data. - Highlights: ► We model two on-road CO 2 emissions inventories using common spatial parameters. ► Independent CO 2 observations are used to validate the emissions models. ► The downscaled emissions models capture the urban spatial heterogeneity of Boston. ► Emissions estimates show a strong non-linear relationship with observed CO 2 . ► Our study is repeatable, even in areas with limited data. - This work presents a new, reproducible methodology for downscaling and validating on-road CO 2 emissions estimates.

Hydro-climatic trends and water resource management implications based on multi-scale data for the Lake Victoria region, Kenya

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koutsouris, A J; Destouni, G; Jarsjoe, J; Lyon, S W

2010-01-01

Unreliable rainfall may be a main cause of poverty in rural areas, such as the Kisumu district by Lake Victoria in Kenya. Climate change may further increase the negative effects of rainfall uncertainty. These effects could be mitigated to some extent through improved and adaptive water resource management and planning, which relies on our interpretations and projections of the coupled hydro-climatic system behaviour and its development trends. In order to identify and quantify the main differences and consistencies among such hydro-climatic assessments, this study investigates trends and exemplifies their use for important water management decisions for the Lake Victoria drainage basin (LVDB), based on local scale data for the Orongo village in the Kisumu district, and regional scale data for the whole LVDB. Results show low correlation between locally and regionally observed hydro-climatic trends, and large differences, which in turn affects assessments of important water resource management parameters. However, both data scales converge in indicating that observed local and regional hydrological discharge trends are primarily driven by local and regional water use and land use changes.

Groundwater flow analysis on local scale. Setting boundary conditions of groundwater flow analysis on site scale model in the former part of the step 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Onoe, Hironori; Saegusa, Hiromitsu

2005-07-01

Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute has been conducting a wide range of geoscientific research in order to build a foundation for multidisciplinary studies of the deep geological environment as a basis of research and development for geological disposal of nuclear wastes. Ongoing geoscientific research programs include the Regional Hydrogeological Study (RHS) project and Mizunami Underground Research Laboratory (MIU) project in the Tono region, Gifu Prefecture. The main goal of these projects is to establish comprehensive techniques for investigation, analysis, and assessment of the deep geological environment at several spatial scales. The RHS project is a local scale study for understanding the groundwater flow system from the recharge area to the discharge area. The Surface-based Investigation Phase of the MIU project is a mainly site scale study for understanding the deep geological environment immediately surrounding the MIU construction site using a multiphase, iterative approach. In this study, the hydrogeological modeling and groundwater flow analysis on the Local scale were carried out in order to set boundary conditions of the site scale model based on the data obtained from surface-based investigations in the former part of the Step 3 in site scale of the MIU project. As a result of the study, the uncertainty of hydrogeological model of the local scale and boundary conditions for the site scale model is decreased as stepwise investigation, and boundary conditions for groundwater flow analysis on the site scale model for the former part of the Step 3 could be obtained. (author)

Scale and watershed features determine lake chemistry patterns across physiographic regions in the far north of Ontario, Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Josef MacLeod

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Changes in the far north of Ontario (>50°N latitude, like climate warming and increased industrial development, will have direct effects on watershed characteristics and lakes. To better understand the nature of remote northern lakes that span the Canadian Shield and Hudson Bay Lowlands, and to address the pressing need for limnological data for this vast, little-studied area of Ontario, lake chemistry surveys were conducted during 2011-2012. Lakes at the transition between these physiographic regions displayed highly variable water chemistry, reflecting the peatland landscape with a mix of bog and fen watersheds, and variations in the extent of permafrost. In the transition area, Shield and Lowlands lakes could not be clearly differentiated based on water chemistry; peat cover decouples, to varying degrees, the lakes from the influences of bedrock and surficial deposits. Regional chemistry differences were apparent across a much broader area of northern Ontario, due to large-scale spatial changes in geology and in the extent of peatlands and permafrost.  Shield lakes in the far northwest of Ontario had Ca, Mg, and TP concentrations markedly higher than those of many Lowlands lakes and previously studied Shield lakes south of 50°N, related to an abundance of lacustrine and glacial end-moraine deposits in the north.

Algorithm 873: LSTRS: MATLAB Software for Large-Scale Trust-Region Subproblems and Regularization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rojas Larrazabal, Marielba de la Caridad; Santos, Sandra A.; Sorensen, Danny C.

2008-01-01

A MATLAB 6.0 implementation of the LSTRS method is resented. LSTRS was described in Rojas, M., Santos, S.A., and Sorensen, D.C., A new matrix-free method for the large-scale trust-region subproblem, SIAM J. Optim., 11(3):611-646, 2000. LSTRS is designed for large-scale quadratic problems with one...... at each step. LSTRS relies on matrix-vector products only and has low and fixed storage requirements, features that make it suitable for large-scale computations. In the MATLAB implementation, the Hessian matrix of the quadratic objective function can be specified either explicitly, or in the form...... of a matrix-vector multiplication routine. Therefore, the implementation preserves the matrix-free nature of the method. A description of the LSTRS method and of the MATLAB software, version 1.2, is presented. Comparisons with other techniques and applications of the method are also included. A guide...

The Role of Regional Strategies in Sustainable Development: The Approach of City Plan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mustafa Polat

2014-11-01

Full Text Available In the world economy and development, understanding changes are occurring, with the EU integration process of developments and understanding of planning priorities when considered as together, "city" scale development approach and an appropriate planning system, that is the basis of Turkey`s administrative division and the national management system, should be improved self-rises. To reduce disparities among regions to an acceptable level and development of relatively underdeveloped regions and cities, naturally, a development and planning system even starting from the city and province levels, is required. In today's sustainable understanding and evolution tools, burden important functions to local units, as "participation" in the foreground stands out in the stages of planning and execution of the development strategies. Regional and city development plans and strategies as the center of rapid and balanced development dynamics are sensitive to local needs and local initiatives are required in being a trigger level. The study is done with Goal Directed Project Management methodology, and in the study city level taken as an example of city scale development approach and an appropriate planning system.

The Role of Regional Strategies in Sustainable Development: The Approach of City Plan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mustafa Polat

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In the world economy and development, understanding changes are occurring, with the EU integration process of developments and understanding of planning priorities when considered as together, "city" scale development approach and an appropriate planning system, that is the basis of Turkey`s administrative division and the national management system, should be improved self-rises. To reduce disparities among regions to an acceptable level and development of relatively underdeveloped regions and cities, naturally, a development and planning system even starting from the city and province levels, is required. In today's sustainable understanding and evolution tools, burden important functions to local units, as "participation" in the foreground stands out in the stages of planning and execution of the development strategies. Regional and city development plans and strategies as the center of rapid and balanced development dynamics are sensitive to local needs and local initiatives are required in being a trigger level. The study is done with Goal Directed Project Management methodology, and in the study city level taken as an example of city scale development approach and an appropriate planning system.

A refined regional modeling approach for the Corn Belt - Experiences and recommendations for large-scale integrated modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Panagopoulos, Yiannis; Gassman, Philip W.; Jha, Manoj K.; Kling, Catherine L.; Campbell, Todd; Srinivasan, Raghavan; White, Michael; Arnold, Jeffrey G.

2015-05-01

Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture is the main source of nitrogen and phosphorus in the stream systems of the Corn Belt region in the Midwestern US. This region is comprised of two large river basins, the intensely row-cropped Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) and Ohio-Tennessee River Basin (OTRB), which are considered the key contributing areas for the Northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone according to the US Environmental Protection Agency. Thus, in this area it is of utmost importance to ensure that intensive agriculture for food, feed and biofuel production can coexist with a healthy water environment. To address these objectives within a river basin management context, an integrated modeling system has been constructed with the hydrologic Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, capable of estimating river basin responses to alternative cropping and/or management strategies. To improve modeling performance compared to previous studies and provide a spatially detailed basis for scenario development, this SWAT Corn Belt application incorporates a greatly refined subwatershed structure based on 12-digit hydrologic units or 'subwatersheds' as defined by the US Geological Service. The model setup, calibration and validation are time-demanding and challenging tasks for these large systems, given the scale intensive data requirements, and the need to ensure the reliability of flow and pollutant load predictions at multiple locations. Thus, the objectives of this study are both to comprehensively describe this large-scale modeling approach, providing estimates of pollution and crop production in the region as well as to present strengths and weaknesses of integrated modeling at such a large scale along with how it can be improved on the basis of the current modeling structure and results. The predictions were based on a semi-automatic hydrologic calibration approach for large-scale and spatially detailed modeling studies, with the use of the Sequential

Coronal mass ejections and their sheath regions in interplanetary space

Science.gov (United States)

Kilpua, Emilia; Koskinen, Hannu E. J.; Pulkkinen, Tuija I.

2017-11-01

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are large-scale heliospheric transients that originate from the Sun. When an ICME is sufficiently faster than the preceding solar wind, a shock wave develops ahead of the ICME. The turbulent region between the shock and the ICME is called the sheath region. ICMEs and their sheaths and shocks are all interesting structures from the fundamental plasma physics viewpoint. They are also key drivers of space weather disturbances in the heliosphere and planetary environments. ICME-driven shock waves can accelerate charged particles to high energies. Sheaths and ICMEs drive practically all intense geospace storms at the Earth, and they can also affect dramatically the planetary radiation environments and atmospheres. This review focuses on the current understanding of observational signatures and properties of ICMEs and the associated sheath regions based on five decades of studies. In addition, we discuss modelling of ICMEs and many fundamental outstanding questions on their origin, evolution and effects, largely due to the limitations of single spacecraft observations of these macro-scale structures. We also present current understanding of space weather consequences of these large-scale solar wind structures, including effects at the other Solar System planets and exoplanets. We specially emphasize the different origin, properties and consequences of the sheaths and ICMEs.

Coronal mass ejections and their sheath regions in interplanetary space

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emilia Kilpua

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs are large-scale heliospheric transients that originate from the Sun. When an ICME is sufficiently faster than the preceding solar wind, a shock wave develops ahead of the ICME. The turbulent region between the shock and the ICME is called the sheath region. ICMEs and their sheaths and shocks are all interesting structures from the fundamental plasma physics viewpoint. They are also key drivers of space weather disturbances in the heliosphere and planetary environments. ICME-driven shock waves can accelerate charged particles to high energies. Sheaths and ICMEs drive practically all intense geospace storms at the Earth, and they can also affect dramatically the planetary radiation environments and atmospheres. This review focuses on the current understanding of observational signatures and properties of ICMEs and the associated sheath regions based on five decades of studies. In addition, we discuss modelling of ICMEs and many fundamental outstanding questions on their origin, evolution and effects, largely due to the limitations of single spacecraft observations of these macro-scale structures. We also present current understanding of space weather consequences of these large-scale solar wind structures, including effects at the other Solar System planets and exoplanets. We specially emphasize the different origin, properties and consequences of the sheaths and ICMEs.

Multi-scale radiomic analysis of sub-cortical regions in MRI related to autism, gender and age

Science.gov (United States)

Chaddad, Ahmad; Desrosiers, Christian; Toews, Matthew

2017-03-01

We propose using multi-scale image textures to investigate links between neuroanatomical regions and clinical variables in MRI. Texture features are derived at multiple scales of resolution based on the Laplacian-of-Gaussian (LoG) filter. Three quantifier functions (Average, Standard Deviation and Entropy) are used to summarize texture statistics within standard, automatically segmented neuroanatomical regions. Significance tests are performed to identify regional texture differences between ASD vs. TDC and male vs. female groups, as well as correlations with age (corrected p brain imaging data exchange (ABIDE) brain MRI dataset is used to evaluate texture features derived from 31 brain regions from 1112 subjects including 573 typically developing control (TDC, 99 females, 474 males) and 539 Autism spectrum disorder (ASD, 65 female and 474 male) subjects. Statistically significant texture differences between ASD vs. TDC groups are identified asymmetrically in the right hippocampus, left choroid-plexus and corpus callosum (CC), and symmetrically in the cerebellar white matter. Sex-related texture differences in TDC subjects are found in primarily in the left amygdala, left cerebellar white matter, and brain stem. Correlations between age and texture in TDC subjects are found in the thalamus-proper, caudate and pallidum, most exhibiting bilateral symmetry.

High-resolution regional climate model evaluation using variable-resolution CESM over California

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, X.; Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.

2015-12-01

Understanding the effect of climate change at regional scales remains a topic of intensive research. Though computational constraints remain a problem, high horizontal resolution is needed to represent topographic forcing, which is a significant driver of local climate variability. Although regional climate models (RCMs) have traditionally been used at these scales, variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) have recently arisen as an alternative for studying regional weather and climate allowing two-way interaction between these domains without the need for nudging. In this study, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling over California. Our variable-resolution simulations will focus on relatively high resolutions for climate assessment, namely 28km and 14km regional resolution, which are much more typical for dynamically downscaled studies. For comparison with the more widely used RCM method, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used for simulations at 27km and 9km. All simulations use the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) protocols. The time period is from 1979-01-01 to 2005-12-31 (UTC), and year 1979 was discarded as spin up time. The mean climatology across California's diverse climate zones, including temperature and precipitation, is analyzed and contrasted with the Weather Research and Forcasting (WRF) model (as a traditional RCM), regional reanalysis, gridded observational datasets and uniform high-resolution CESM at 0.25 degree with the finite volume (FV) dynamical core. The results show that variable-resolution CESM is competitive in representing regional climatology on both annual and seasonal time scales. This assessment adds value to the use of VRGCMs for projecting climate change over the coming century and improve our understanding of both past and future regional climate related to fine-scale

A regional-scale assessment of local renewable energy resources in Cumbria, UK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gormally, A.M.; Whyatt, J.D.; Timmis, R.J.; Pooley, C.G.

2012-01-01

There is increasing focus on the role small-scale decentralised renewable energy developments could play in helping the UK meet its target of over 15% renewable energy by the year 2020 and alter energy behaviours through active community engagement. Upland areas are considered key areas where such community-based developments could occur due to their natural resources and range of community scales. This study uses GIS-based techniques to develop a methodology that assesses the regional-scale potential for community-based renewable electricity across Cumbria and whether a combination of these developments at the community-scale could make a significant contribution to local electricity consumption. This methodology looks at a range of technologies including hydro-power, wind-power, solar PV and bioenergy. The results suggest there is ample resource available for small communities by combining a mix of localised renewable electricity developments, which is highlighted through energy scenarios for a selected community. Further work will investigate whether this potential can be realised in reality by looking at resource resilience and community-level acceptability. - Highlights: ► A mix of wind, solar, bioenergy and hydro-power options are presented for Cumbria, UK. ► High resolution spatial analysis is conducted focussing on localised developments. ► Locations with sufficient renewable electricity potential were identified. ► Renewable options are explored further through a town case study. ► Scenarios consider different scales, mixes and contributions to local energy demand.

Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering: A Framework for Integrating Disparate Data to Understand Network Representativeness and Scaling Up Sparse Ecosystem Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffman, F. M.; Kumar, J.; Maddalena, D. M.; Langford, Z.; Hargrove, W. W.

2014-12-01

Disparate in situ and remote sensing time series data are being collected to understand the structure and function of ecosystems and how they may be affected by climate change. However, resource and logistical constraints limit the frequency and extent of observations, particularly in the harsh environments of the arctic and the tropics, necessitating the development of a systematic sampling strategy to maximize coverage and objectively represent variability at desired scales. These regions host large areas of potentially vulnerable ecosystems that are poorly represented in Earth system models (ESMs), motivating two new field campaigns, called Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE) for the Arctic and Tropics, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering (MSTC) provides a quantitative methodology for stratifying sampling domains, informing site selection, and determining the representativeness of measurement sites and networks. We applied MSTC to down-scaled general circulation model results and data for the State of Alaska at a 4 km2 resolution to define maps of ecoregions for the present (2000-2009) and future (2090-2099), showing how combinations of 37 bioclimatic characteristics are distributed and how they may shift in the future. Optimal representative sampling locations were identified on present and future ecoregion maps, and representativeness maps for candidate sampling locations were produced. We also applied MSTC to remotely sensed LiDAR measurements and multi-spectral imagery from the WorldView-2 satellite at a resolution of about 5 m2 within the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) in Alaska. At this resolution, polygonal ground features—such as centers, edges, rims, and troughs—can be distinguished. Using these remote sensing data, we up-scaled vegetation distribution data collected on these polygonal ground features to a large area of the BEO to provide distributions of plant functional types that can

Large Scale Processes and Extreme Floods in Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Ribeiro Lima, C. H.; AghaKouchak, A.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

Persistent large scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation and ocean state have been associated with heavy rainfall and extreme floods in water basins of different sizes across the world. Such studies have emerged in the last years as a new tool to improve the traditional, stationary based approach in flood frequency analysis and flood prediction. Here we seek to advance previous studies by evaluating the dominance of large scale processes (e.g. atmospheric rivers/moisture transport) over local processes (e.g. local convection) in producing floods. We consider flood-prone regions in Brazil as case studies and the role of large scale climate processes in generating extreme floods in such regions is explored by means of observed streamflow, reanalysis data and machine learning methods. The dynamics of the large scale atmospheric circulation in the days prior to the flood events are evaluated based on the vertically integrated moisture flux and its divergence field, which are interpreted in a low-dimensional space as obtained by machine learning techniques, particularly supervised kernel principal component analysis. In such reduced dimensional space, clusters are obtained in order to better understand the role of regional moisture recycling or teleconnected moisture in producing floods of a given magnitude. The convective available potential energy (CAPE) is also used as a measure of local convection activities. We investigate for individual sites the exceedance probability in which large scale atmospheric fluxes dominate the flood process. Finally, we analyze regional patterns of floods and how the scaling law of floods with drainage area responds to changes in the climate forcing mechanisms (e.g. local vs large scale).

The Limits of Polycentrism at the City-regional Scale: The case of Luxembourg

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antoine Decoville

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Over the last fifteen years, promoters of the European spatial planning policy have presented polycentrism as the most promising strategy for answering the challenge of a more even spatial development. However, there is still no empirical evidence proving that this conceptual tool is adaptable to all scales. In this paper, we propose two different approaches of urban hierarchy with regards to its capacity to structure spatial development at a city-regional scale: the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. The first one depicts a classical urban hierarchy based on the location of urban amenities. The second one, which takes into account the accessibility to these amenities, shows the polycentric model in a more nuanced manner. Our results underline the differences between these two models and call for caution with respect to the adoption of the polycentric model at this spatial scale, since it could potentially lead to an increase in urban sprawl.

Understanding Regional Actors: A Case Study

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Harden, James

2002-01-01

.... It is possible the estimation process could improve if greater attention was given to the interests, challenges, and opportunities of the regional actors involved, rather than concentrating on U.S. interests...

Regional-scale relationships between aerosol and summer monsoon circulation, and precipitation over northeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, Soon-Chang; Kim, Sang-Woo; Choi, Suk-Jin; Choi, In-Jin

2010-08-01

We investigated the regional-scale relationships between columnar aerosol loads and summer monsoon circulation, and also the precipitation over northeast Asia using aerosol optical depth (AOD) data obtained from the 8-year MODIS, AERONET Sun/sky radiometer, and precipitation data acquired under the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). These high-quality data revealed the regional-scale link between AOD and summer monsoon circulation, precipitation in July over northeast Asian countries, and their distinct spatial and annual variabilities. Compared to the mean AOD for the entire period of 2001-2008, the increase of almost 40-50% in the AOD value in July 2005 and July 2007 was found over the downwind regions of China (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea), with negative precipitation anomalies. This can be attributable to the strong westerly confluent flows, between cyclone flows by continental thermal low centered over the northern China and anticyclonic flows by the western North Pacific High, which transport anthropogenic pollution aerosols emitted from east China to aforementioned downwind high AOD regions along the rim of the Pacific marine airmass. In July 2002, however, the easterly flows transported anthropogenic aerosols from east China to the southwestern part of China in July 2002. As a result, the AOD off the coast of China was dramatically reduced in spite of decreasing rainfall. From the calculation of the cross-correlation coefficient between MODIS-derived AOD anomalies and GPCP precipitation anomalies in July over the period 2001-2008, we found negative correlations over the areas encompassed by 105-115°E and 30-35°N and by 120-140°E and 35-40°N (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea). This suggests that aerosol loads over these regions are easily influenced by the Asian monsoon flow system and associated precipitation.

Electron Currents and Heating in the Ion Diffusion Region of Asymmetric Reconnection

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, D. B.; Khotyaintsev, Yu. V.; Norgren, C.; Vaivads, A.; Andre, M.; Lindqvist, P. A.; Marklund, G. T.; Ergun, R. E.; Paterson, W. R.; Gershman, D. J.;

Spatial data analysis for exploration of regional scale geothermal resources

Science.gov (United States)

Moghaddam, Majid Kiavarz; Noorollahi, Younes; Samadzadegan, Farhad; Sharifi, Mohammad Ali; Itoi, Ryuichi

2013-10-01

Defining a comprehensive conceptual model of the resources sought is one of the most important steps in geothermal potential mapping. In this study, Fry analysis as a spatial distribution method and 5% well existence, distance distribution, weights of evidence (WofE), and evidential belief function (EBFs) methods as spatial association methods were applied comparatively to known geothermal occurrences, and to publicly-available regional-scale geoscience data in Akita and Iwate provinces within the Tohoku volcanic arc, in northern Japan. Fry analysis and rose diagrams revealed similar directional patterns of geothermal wells and volcanoes, NNW-, NNE-, NE-trending faults, hotsprings and fumaroles. Among the spatial association methods, WofE defined a conceptual model correspondent with the real world situations, approved with the aid of expert opinion. The results of the spatial association analyses quantitatively indicated that the known geothermal occurrences are strongly spatially-associated with geological features such as volcanoes, craters, NNW-, NNE-, NE-direction faults and geochemical features such as hotsprings, hydrothermal alteration zones and fumaroles. Geophysical data contains temperature gradients over 100 °C/km and heat flow over 100 mW/m2. In general, geochemical and geophysical data were better evidence layers than geological data for exploring geothermal resources. The spatial analyses of the case study area suggested that quantitative knowledge from hydrothermal geothermal resources was significantly useful for further exploration and for geothermal potential mapping in the case study region. The results can also be extended to the regions with nearly similar characteristics.

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

Science.gov (United States)

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscal...

Scaling-up watershed discharge and sediment concentrations to regional scale: The Blue Nile Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Steenhuis, T. S.; Tilahun, S. A.; MacAlister, C.; Ayana, E. K.; Tebebu, T. Y.; Bayabil, H. K.; Zegeye, A. D.; Worqlul, A. W.

2012-12-01

Since Hewlet and Hibbert's publication there is recognition that saturated excess overland land flow is one of the main runoff mechanisms in vegetated watersheds. Predicting discharge in these watersheds can be accomplished by use of simplified models where the landscape features are grouped in potentially runoff contributing zones and permeable hillsides where the water infiltrates (and become the source of interflow and base flow). In this way each watershed can be described with nine parameters: fractional area and available water content for each of the three zones and three parameters describing subsurface flow. The information parameter values can be derived directly from the outflow hydrograph. We show that this model performs well for discharge and sediment concentration (with three additional parameters) on a 1 to 10 day time scale in the Blue Nile Basin for watersheds ranging in in size from 100 ha to 170,000 km2. Thus scaling up from watershed to regional scale can be accomplished with nine parameters for the hydrology and three additional parameters for sediment concentrations. Our hypothesis, that the model works so well, is that after the watershed wets up it drains to a characteristic moisture content distribution that is invariant in time. Wetting up is similar each time and is as a function of effective rainfall. This gives rise to a unique relationship between total storm runoff and total precipitation and surprisingly can be described by a modified form of the well-known SCS runoff equation. This approach has a direct parallel with Darcy's law in that although the average flow over several pores is described well, flow in individual pores cannot predicted. In our case the discharge can be simulated by averaging over the different runoff source area and permeable hillside in the watersheds, but processes within the zones cannot be described. This is not to say that information within the various zones cannot be simulated, but will require detailed

Regional-to-site scale groundwater flow in Romuvaara

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kattilakoski, E.; Koskinen, L. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

1999-04-01

The work describing numerical groundwater flow modelling at the Romuvaara site serves as a background report for the safety assessment TILA-99. The site scale can roughly be taken as the scale of detailed borehole investigations, which have probed the bedrock of Romuvaara over about 2 km{sup 2} large and 1 km deep volume. The site model in this work covers an area of about 12 km{sup 2}. The depth of the model is 2200 m. The site scale flow modelling produced characteristics of the deep groundwater flow and evaluated the impact of a spent fuel repository on the natural groundwater flow conditions. It treated the hydraulic gradient in the intact rock between the repository and the fracture zone nearest to it (about 50 m off) for the block scale model, which describes the groundwater flow on the repository scale. The result quantities were the hydraulic head h (as the base quantity) and its gradient in selected cross sections and fracture zones, the flow rates around the repository, flow paths and discharge areas of the water from the repository. Two repository layouts were discussed. The numerical simulations were performed with the FEFTRA code based on the porous medium concept and the finite element method. The regional model with a no-flow boundary condition at the bottom and on the lateral edges was firstly used to confirm the hydraulic head boundary condition on the lateral edges of an interior site model (having a no-flow boundary condition at the bottom). The groundwater table was used as the hydraulic head boundary condition at the surface of each model. Both the conductivity of the bedrock (modeled with three-dimensional elements) and the transmissivities of the fracture zones (described with two-dimensional elements in the three-dimensional mesh) decreased as a function of the depth. All the results were derived from the site model. The range of variation of the hydraulic gradient immediately outside the repository was studied in the direction of the flow

An integrated approach to scale up the market penetration of low carbon technologies in developing countries and water scarce regions

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Michelle Angela

Water scarcity is a global challenge that stifles social and economic growth. There is a growing concern to examine the water-energy nexus to understand the importance of applying energy and water interactions to technology. In developing countries there are many communities that live off-grid in remote region with no access to electricity or clean water. Additionally, there are developed countries that are located in regions with electricity but no access to clean water. Recent developments in renewable energy technology and energy policies have greatly reduced the costs of renewable energy making them more attractive and affordable. The purpose of this dissertation is to evaluate the main barriers to deploying renewables to non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (non-OECD) countries and member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This dissertation examines the potential of renewable desalination technology systems across emerging countries. The findings of this research can serve as the basis for investors interested in entering this market. The combined chapters seek to address potential problems regarding the costs, methods, and tools required for the implementation of the appropriate water purification technologies for off-grid, community scale infrastructures.

Geographical patterns in cyanobacteria distribution: climate influence at regional scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Pitois, Frédéric; Thoraval, Isabelle; Baurès, Estelle; Thomas, Olivier

2014-01-28

Cyanobacteria are a component of public health hazards in freshwater environments because of their potential as toxin producers. Eutrophication has long been considered the main cause of cyanobacteria outbreak and proliferation, whereas many studies emphasized the effect of abiotic parameters (mainly temperature and light) on cell growth rate or toxin production. In view of the growing concerns of global change consequences on public health parameters, this study attempts to enlighten climate influence on cyanobacteria at regional scale in Brittany (NW France). The results show that homogeneous cyanobacteria groups are associated with climatic domains related to temperature, global radiation and pluviometry, whereas microcystins (MCs) occurrences are only correlated to local cyanobacteria species composition. As the regional climatic gradient amplitude is similar to the projected climate evolution on a 30-year timespan, a comparison between the present NW and SE situations was used to extrapolate the evolution of geographical cyanobacteria distribution in Brittany. Cyanobacteria composition should shift toward species associated with more frequent Microcystins occurrences along a NW/SE axis whereas lakes situated along a SW/NE axis should transition to species (mainly Nostocales) associated with lower MCs detection frequencies.

Earth observation for regional scale environmental and natural resources management

Science.gov (United States)

Bernknopf, R.; Brookshire, D.; Faulkner, S.; Chivoiu, B.; Bridge, B.; Broadbent, C.

2013-12-01

Earth observations (EO) provide critical information to natural resource assessment. Three examples are presented: conserving potable groundwater in intense agricultural regions, maximizing ecosystem service benefits at regional scales from afforestation investment and management, and enabling integrated natural and behavioral sciences for resource management and policy analysis. In each of these cases EO of different resolutions are used in different ways to help in the classification, characterization, and availability of natural resources and ecosystem services. To inform decisions, each example includes a spatiotemporal economic model to optimize the net societal benefits of resource development and exploitation. 1) EO is used for monitoring land use in intensively cultivated agricultural regions. Archival imagery is coupled to a hydrogeological process model to evaluate the tradeoff between agrochemical use and retention of potable groundwater. EO is used to couple individual producers and regional resource managers using information from markets and natural systems to aid in the objective of maximizing agricultural production and maintaining groundwater quality. The contribution of EO is input to a nitrate loading and transport model to estimate the cumulative impact on groundwater at specified distances from specific sites (wells) for 35 Iowa counties and two aquifers. 2) Land use/land cover (LULC) derived from EO is used to compare biological carbon sequestration alternatives and their provisioning of ecosystem services. EO is used to target land attributes that are more or less desirable for enhancing ecosystem services in two parishes in Louisiana. Ecological production functions are coupled with value data to maximize the expected return on investment in carbon sequestration and other ancillary ecosystem services while minimizing the risk. 3) Environmental and natural resources management decisions employ probabilistic estimates of yet-to-find or yet

Long distance dispersal and connectivity in amphi-Atlantic corals at regional and basin scales.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flavia L D Nunes

Full Text Available Among Atlantic scleractinian corals, species diversity is highest in the Caribbean, but low diversity and high endemism are observed in various peripheral populations in central and eastern Atlantic islands and along the coasts of Brazil and West Africa. The degree of connectivity between these distantly separated populations is of interest because it provides insight into processes at both evolutionary and ecological time scales, such as speciation, recruitment dynamics and the persistence of coral populations. To assess connectivity in broadly distributed coral species of the Atlantic, DNA sequence data from two nuclear markers were obtained for six coral species spanning their distributional ranges. At basin-wide scales, significant differentiation was generally observed among populations in the Caribbean, Brazil and West Africa. Concordance of patterns in connectivity among co-distributed taxa indicates that extrinsic barriers, such as the Amazon freshwater plume or long stretches of open ocean, restrict dispersal of coral larvae from region to region. Within regions, dispersal ability appears to be influenced by aspects of reproduction and life history. Two broadcasting species, Siderastrea siderea and Montastraea cavernosa, were able to maintain gene flow among populations separated by as much as 1,200 km along the coast of Brazil. In contrast, brooding species, such as Favia gravida and Siderastrea radians, had more restricted gene flow along the Brazilian coast.

Improvements on mapping soil liquefaction at a regional scale

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Jing

Earthquake induced soil liquefaction is an important secondary hazard during earthquakes and can lead to significant damage to infrastructure. Mapping liquefaction hazard is important in both planning for earthquake events and guiding relief efforts by positioning resources once the events have occurred. This dissertation addresses two aspects of liquefaction hazard mapping at a regional scale including 1) predictive liquefaction hazard mapping and 2) post-liquefaction cataloging. First, current predictive hazard liquefaction mapping relies on detailed geologic maps and geotechnical data, which are not always available in at-risk regions. This dissertation improves the predictive liquefaction hazard mapping by the development and validation of geospatial liquefaction models (Chapter 2 and 3) that predict liquefaction extent and are appropriate for global application. The geospatial liquefaction models are developed using logistic regression from a liquefaction database consisting of the data from 27 earthquake events from six countries. The model that performs best over the entire dataset includes peak ground velocity (PGV), VS30, distance to river, distance to coast, and precipitation. The model that performs best over the noncoastal dataset includes PGV, VS30, water table depth, distance to water body, and precipitation. Second, post-earthquake liquefaction cataloging historically relies on field investigation that is often limited by time and expense, and therefore results in limited and incomplete liquefaction inventories. This dissertation improves the post-earthquake cataloging by the development and validation of a remote sensing-based method that can be quickly applied over a broad region after an earthquake and provide a detailed map of liquefaction surface effects (Chapter 4). Our method uses the optical satellite images before and after an earthquake event from the WorldView-2 satellite with 2 m spatial resolution and eight spectral bands. Our method

Regional-Scale High-Latitude Extreme Geoelectric Fields Pertaining to Geomagnetically Induced Currents

Science.gov (United States)

Pulkkinen, Antti; Bernabeu, Emanuel; Eichner, Jan; Viljanen, Ari; Ngwira, Chigomezyo

2015-01-01

Motivated by the needs of the high-voltage power transmission industry, we use data from the high-latitude IMAGE magnetometer array to study characteristics of extreme geoelectric fields at regional scales. We use 10-s resolution data for years 1993-2013, and the fields are characterized using average horizontal geoelectric field amplitudes taken over station groups that span about 500-km distance. We show that geoelectric field structures associated with localized extremes at single stations can be greatly different from structures associated with regionally uniform geoelectric fields, which are well represented by spatial averages over single stations. Visual extrapolation and rigorous extreme value analysis of spatially averaged fields indicate that the expected range for 1-in-100-year extreme events are 3-8 V/km and 3.4-7.1 V/km, respectively. The Quebec reference ground model is used in the calculations.

Evolution and current state of our understanding of the role played in the climate system by land surface processes in semi-arid regions

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholson, Sharon E.

2015-10-01

The role of the land surface in climate and weather has been a major research focus since the 1970s. Since that time our understanding of the issue has greatly changed and many new themes in several disciplines are being considered. This article summarizes the changes in our understanding that have taken place in research on this topic and reviews principally papers that have appeared in the last two decades. Several other papers provide comprehensive reviews of literature that appeared prior to that time. The major changes that have occurred include 1) more sophisticated and rigorous analysis of desertification, 2) increased emphasis on hydrological processes, including the role of groundwater, 3) use of multi-model ensembles and regional models, 4) the emergence of the domain of ecohydrology, with emphasis on detailed feedbacks between water availability and vegetation, 5) examination of the hypothesis that vegetation feedback can produce abrupt climate change, 6) emphasis on the impacts on convective or synoptic-scale systems, and 7) consideration of the impact of aerosols, including the Saharan Air Layer. With the exception of desertification, each of these topics is reviewed.

Large-scale wind power in New Brunswick : a regional scenario study towards 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-08-01

This paper discussed the large-scale development of wind power in New Brunswick and evaluated Danish experiences with wind development as a template for developing wind resources in the Maritimes region. The study showed that New Brunswick and the Maritimes region have good wind resources, and that the province will gain significant economic benefits from deploying between 5500 and 7500 MW of wind power capacity by 2025. Wind power development will contribute to the security of supply in the region and reduce air pollution. Carbon regulation and renewable portfolio standards will improve the competitiveness of wind power. Electricity generated by wind power plants in the Maritimes can be sold to other provinces in Canada, as well as to the heavily populated New England region of the United States. A high level of cooperation between markets in the Maritimes area and neighbouring New England and Quebec systems will be required in addition to load flow analyses of electricity systems. Denmark's experiences with developing wind power indicate that existing market designs must be restructured to allow for higher levels of competition. A strong system operator is required to integrate wind power into the system. It was concluded that strong political leadership is required to ensure the sustainable development of the region. 5 refs., 4 tabs., 9 figs

Estimation of regional-scale groundwater flow properties in the Bengal Basin of India and Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Michael, H.A.; Voss, C.I.

2009-01-01

Quantitative evaluation of management strategies for long-term supply of safe groundwater for drinking from the Bengal Basin aquifer (India and Bangladesh) requires estimation of the large-scale hydrogeologic properties that control flow. The Basin consists of a stratified, heterogeneous sequence of sediments with aquitards that may separate aquifers locally, but evidence does not support existence of regional confining units. Considered at a large scale, the Basin may be aptly described as a single aquifer with higher horizontal than vertical hydraulic conductivity. Though data are sparse, estimation of regional-scale aquifer properties is possible from three existing data types: hydraulic heads, 14C concentrations, and driller logs. Estimation is carried out with inverse groundwater modeling using measured heads, by model calibration using estimated water ages based on 14C, and by statistical analysis of driller logs. Similar estimates of hydraulic conductivities result from all three data types; a resulting typical value of vertical anisotropy (ratio of horizontal to vertical conductivity) is 104. The vertical anisotropy estimate is supported by simulation of flow through geostatistical fields consistent with driller log data. The high estimated value of vertical anisotropy in hydraulic conductivity indicates that even disconnected aquitards, if numerous, can strongly control the equivalent hydraulic parameters of an aquifer system. ?? US Government 2009.

An operational methodology for riparian land cover fine scale regional mapping for the study of landscape influence on river ecological status

Science.gov (United States)

Tormos, T.; Kosuth, P.; Souchon, Y.; Villeneuve, B.; Durrieu, S.; Chandesris, A.

2010-12-01

Preservation and restoration of river ecosystems require an improved understanding of the mechanisms through which they are influenced by landscape at multiple spatial scales and particularly at river corridor scale considering the role of riparian vegetation for regulating and protecting river ecological status and the relevance of this specific area for implementing efficient and realistic strategies. Assessing correctly this influence over large river networks involves accurate broad scale (i.e. at least regional) information on Land Cover within Riparian Areas (LCRA). As the structure of land cover along rivers is generally not accessible using moderate-scale satellite imagery, finer spatial resolution imagery and specific mapping techniques are needed. For this purpose we developed a generic multi-scale Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) scheme able to produce LCRA maps in different geographic context by exploiting information available from very high spatial resolution imagery (satellite or airborne) and/or metric to decametric spatial thematic data on a given study zone thanks to fuzzy expert knowledge classification rules. A first experimentation was carried out on the Herault river watershed (southern of France), a 2650 square kilometers basin that presents a contrasted landscape (different ecoregions) and a total stream length of 1150 Km, using high and very high multispectral remotely-sensed images (10m Spot5 multispectral images and 0.5m aerial photography) and existing spatial thematic data. Application of the OBIA scheme produced a detailed (22 classes) LCRA map with an overall accuracy of 89% and a Kappa index of 83% according to a land cover pressures typology (six categories). A second experimentation (using the same data sources) was carried out on a larger test zone, a part of the Normandy river network (25 000 square kilometers basin; 6000 km long river network; 155 ecological stations). This second work aimed at elaborating a robust statistical

Regional-Scale Surface Magnetic Fields and Proton Fluxes to Mercury's Surface from Proton-Reflection Magnetometry

Science.gov (United States)

Winslow, R. M.; Johnson, C. L.; Anderson, B. J.; Gershman, D. J.; Raines, J. M.; Lillis, R. J.; Korth, H.; Slavin, J. A.; Solomon, S. C.; Zurbuchen, T.

2014-12-01

The application of a recently developed proton-reflection magnetometry technique to MESSENGER spacecraft observations at Mercury has yielded two significant findings. First, loss-cone observations directly confirm particle precipitation to Mercury's surface and indicate that solar wind plasma persistently bombards the planet not only in the magnetic cusp regions but over a large fraction of the southern hemisphere. Second, the inferred surface field strengths independently confirm the north-south asymmetry in Mercury's global magnetic field structure first documented from observations of magnetic equator crossings. Here we extend this work with 1.5 additional years of observations (i.e., to 2.5 years in all) to further probe Mercury's surface magnetic field and better resolve proton flux precipitation to the planet's surface. We map regions where proton loss cones are observed; these maps indicate regions where protons precipitate directly onto the surface. The augmentation of our data set over that used in our original study allows us to examine the proton loss cones in cells of dimension 10° latitude by 20° longitude in Mercury body-fixed coordinates. We observe a transition from double-sided to single-sided loss cones in the pitch-angle distributions; this transition marks the boundary between open and closed field lines. At the surface this boundary lies between 60° and 70°N. Our observations allow the estimation of surface magnetic field strengths in the northern cusp region and the calculation of incident proton fluxes to both hemispheres. In the northern cusp, our regional-scale observations are consistent with an offset dipole field and a dipole moment of 190 nT RM3, where RM is Mercury's radius, implying that any regional-scale variations in surface magnetic field strengths are either weak relative to the dipole field or occur at length scales smaller than the resolution of our observations (~300 km). From the global proton flux map (north of 40° S

Analyzing cloud base at local and regional scales to understand tropical montane cloud forest vulnerability to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Ashley E. Van Beusekom; Grizelle Gonzalez; Martha A. Scholl

2017-01-01

The degree to which cloud immersion provides water in addition to rainfall, suppresses transpiration, and sustains tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) during rainless periods is not well understood. Climate and land use changes represent a threat to these forests if cloud base altitude rises as a result of regional warming or deforestation. To establish a baseline...

Towards a real-time susceptibility assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides on a regional scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Montrasio

2011-07-01

Full Text Available In the framework of landslide risk management, it appears relevant to assess, both in space and in time, the triggering of rainfall-induced shallow landslides, in order to prevent damages due to these kind of disasters. In this context, the use of real-time landslide early warning systems has been attracting more and more attention from the scientific community. This paper deals with the application, on a regional scale, of two physically-based stability models: SLIP (Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction and TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability analysis. A back analysis of some recent case-histories of soil slips which occurred in the territory of the central Emilian Apennine, Emilia Romagna Region (Northern Italy is carried out and the main results are shown. The study area is described from geological and climatic viewpoints. The acquisition of geospatial information regarding the topography, the soil properties and the local landslide inventory is also explained.

The paper outlines the main features of the SLIP model and the basic assumptions of TRIGRS. Particular attention is devoted to the discussion of the input data, which have been stored and managed through a Geographic Information System (GIS platform. Results of the SLIP model on a regional scale, over a one year time interval, are finally presented. The results predicted by the SLIP model are analysed both in terms of safety factor (F_s maps, corresponding to particular rainfall events, and in terms of time-varying percentage of unstable areas over the considered time interval. The paper compares observed landslide localizations with those predicted by the SLIP model. A further quantitative comparison between SLIP and TRIGRS, both applied to the most important event occurred during the analysed period, is presented. The limits of the SLIP model, mainly due to some restrictions of simplifying the physically

Transdisciplinary science: a path to understanding the interactions among ocean acidification, ecosystems, and society

Science.gov (United States)

Yates, Kimberly K.; Turley, Carol; Hopkinson, Brian M.; Todgham, Anne E.; Cross, Jessica N.; Greening, Holly; Williamson, Phillip; Van Hooidonk, Ruben; Deheyn, Dimitri D.; Johnson, Zachary

2015-01-01

The global nature of ocean acidification (OA) transcends habitats, ecosystems, regions, and science disciplines. The scientific community recognizes that the biggest challenge in improving understanding of how changing OA conditions affect ecosystems, and associated consequences for human society, requires integration of experimental, observational, and modeling approaches from many disciplines over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Such transdisciplinary science is the next step in providing relevant, meaningful results and optimal guidance to policymakers and coastal managers. We discuss the challenges associated with integrating ocean acidification science across funding agencies, institutions, disciplines, topical areas, and regions, and the value of unifying science objectives and activities to deliver insights into local, regional, and global scale impacts. We identify guiding principles and strategies for developing transdisciplinary research in the ocean acidification science community.

The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes

Science.gov (United States)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M.

2017-12-01

This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil

Hydraulic properties and scale effects investigation in regional rock aquifers, south-western Quebec, Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Nastev, M.; Savard, M. M.; Lapcevic, P.; Lefebvre, R.; Martel, R.

This paper reports on the characterization of hydraulic properties of regional rock aquifers carried out within a groundwater resources assessment project in the St. Lawrence Lowlands of south-western Quebec. To understand the aquifer behavior at both the fracture level and at field scale, hydraulic investigations were carried out using various aquifer tests. The groundwater flow at the local scale is controlled mostly by the fracture system. Results of the constant-head injection tests show a weak decreasing trend of hydraulic conductivity with depth indicating that a major part of the groundwater flow occurs in the first meters of the rock sequence. At the regional scale, the equivalent porous media approach is applicable. The hydraulic conductivity measurements were correlated to the scale of the aquifer tests expressed with the investigated aquifer volume. A simple interpolation procedure for the hydraulic conductivity field was developed based on the distance between field measurements and the tested aquifer volumes. The regional distribution of the hydraulic conductivity for the major fractured aquifer units indicates that dolostone is the most permeable whereas sandstone and crystalline rocks are the least permeable units. Este artículo trata de la caracterización de las propiedades hidráulicas en acuíferos regionales rocosos, la cual se llevó a cabo dentro del proyecto de evaluación de los recursos de agua subterránea en St. Lawrence Lowlands al suroeste de Quebec. Para entender el comportamiento del acuífero tanto a nivel de fractura como a escala del campo, se ejecutaron investigaciones hidráulicas usando varias pruebas de acuífero. El flujo del agua subterránea a escala local está controlado principalmente por el sistema de fracturas. Los resultados de las pruebas de inyección con cabeza constante muestran una tendencia decreciente débil de la conductividad hidráulica con la profundidad, indicando que la mayor parte del flujo de agua

Understanding Great Earthquakes in Japan's Kanto Region

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Reiji; Curewitz, Daniel

2008-10-01

Third International Workshop on the Kanto Asperity Project; Chiba, Japan, 16-19 February 2008; The 1703 (Genroku) and 1923 (Taisho) earthquakes in Japan's Kanto region (M 8.2 and M 7.9, respectively) caused severe damage in the Tokyo metropolitan area. These great earthquakes occurred along the Sagami Trough, where the Philippine Sea slab is subducting beneath Japan. Historical records, paleoseismological research, and geophysical/geodetic monitoring in the region indicate that such great earthquakes will repeat in the future.

Enhanced greenhouse warming: Regional response and believability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Etkin, D.

1991-01-01

Climate models predict significant changes in the world's climate over the next 50-100 y due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. To what extent these predictions can be believed has been the subject of considerable scientific debate. The ability of climate models to reproduce the current climate depends on how well the available data sets specify the earth's climate and how well the models reproduce that specification. A study of historical and paleo climates provides information on how the climate system operates and on past fluctuations in climate, and may also provide useful analogues of future climates. The best tools for understanding and predicting future climate changes are likely numerical models. Sophisticated climate models suffer from uncertainties about the feedback loops present in the real climate system. The ability of global circulation models to replicate current climate globally is fairly good, but significant disagreements have been found among different models at regional scales. For a region such as the Mackenzie Valley, understanding of historical and current climate is essential in terms of developing reasonable scenarios of future climate change. Uncertainty will probably remain an issue with respect to greenhouse warming for the foreseeable future, and as a result the detailed climate prediction on a regional scale needed for some kinds of impact studies may not be attainable. 73 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab

Susceptibility and triggering scenarios at a regional scale for shallow landslides

Science.gov (United States)

Gullà, G.; Antronico, L.; Iaquinta, P.; Terranova, O.

2008-07-01

The work aims at identifying susceptible areas and pluviometric triggering scenarios at a regional scale in Calabria (Italy), with reference to shallow landsliding events. The proposed methodology follows a statistical approach and uses a database linked to a GIS that has been created to support the various steps of spatial data management and manipulation. The shallow landslide predisposing factors taken into account are derived from (i) the 40-m digital terrain model of the region, an ˜ 15,075 km 2 extension; (ii) outcropping lithology; (iii) soils; and (iv) land use. More precisely, a map of the slopes has been drawn from the digital terrain model. Two kinds of covers [prevalently coarse-grained (CG cover) or fine-grained (FG cover)] were identified, referring to the geotechnical characteristics of geomaterial covers and to the lithology map; soilscapes were drawn from soil maps; and finally, the land use map was employed without any prior processing. Subsequently, the inventory maps of some shallow landsliding events, totaling more than 30,000 instabilities of the past and detected by field surveys and photo aerial restitution, were employed to calibrate the relative importance of these predisposing factors. The use of single factors (first level analysis) therefore provides three different susceptibility maps. Second level analysis, however, enables better location of areas susceptible to shallow landsliding events by crossing the single susceptibility maps. On the basis of the susceptibility map obtained by the second level analysis, five different classes of susceptibility to shallow landsliding events have been outlined over the regional territory: 8.9% of the regional territory shows very high susceptibility, 14.3% high susceptibility, 15% moderate susceptibility, 3.6% low susceptibility, and finally, about 58% very low susceptibility. Finally, the maps of two significant shallow landsliding events of the past and their related rainfalls have been

A New WRF-Chem Treatment for Studying Regional Scale Impacts of Cloud-Aerosol Interactions in Parameterized Cumuli

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berg, Larry K.; Shrivastava, ManishKumar B.; Easter, Richard C.; Fast, Jerome D.; Chapman, Elaine G.; Liu, Ying

2015-01-01

A new treatment of cloud-aerosol interactions within parameterized shallow and deep convection has been implemented in WRF-Chem that can be used to better understand the aerosol lifecycle over regional to synoptic scales. The modifications to the model to represent cloud-aerosol interactions include treatment of the cloud dropletnumber mixing ratio; key cloud microphysical and macrophysical parameters (including the updraft fractional area, updraft and downdraft mass fluxes, and entrainment) averaged over the population of shallow clouds, or a single deep convective cloud; and vertical transport, activation/resuspension, aqueous chemistry, and wet removal of aerosol and trace gases in warm clouds. Thesechanges have been implemented in both the WRF-Chem chemistry packages as well as the Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization that has been modified to better represent shallow convective clouds. Preliminary testing of the modified WRF-Chem has been completed using observations from the Cumulus Humilis Aerosol Processing Study (CHAPS) as well as a high-resolution simulation that does not include parameterized convection. The simulation results are used to investigate the impact of cloud-aerosol interactions on the regional scale transport of black carbon (BC), organic aerosol (OA), and sulfate aerosol. Based on the simulations presented here, changes in the column integrated BC can be as large as -50% when cloud-aerosol interactions are considered (due largely to wet removal), or as large as +35% for sulfate in non-precipitating conditions due to the sulfate production in the parameterized clouds. The modifications to WRF-Chem version 3.2.1 are found to account for changes in the cloud drop number concentration (CDNC) and changes in the chemical composition of cloud-drop residuals in a way that is consistent with observations collected during CHAPS. Efforts are currently underway to port the changes described here to WRF-Chem version 3.5, and it is anticipated that they

Water and nutrient budgets at field and regional scale : travel times of drainage water and nutrient loads to surface water

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eertwegh, van den G.A.P.H.

2002-01-01

Keywords : water and nutrient budget, travel time of drainage water, dual-porosity concept, agricultural nutrient losses, loads to surface water, field-scale experiments, regional-scale