WorldWideScience

Sample records for understanding regional scale

  1. Renewable biomass energy: Understanding regional scale environmental impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, R.L.; Downing, M.

    1993-12-31

    If biomass energy is to become a significant component of the US energy sector, millions of acres of farmland must be converted to energy crops. The environmental implications of this change in land use must be quantitatively evaluated. The land use changes will be largely driven by economic considerations. Farmers will grow energy crops when it is profitable to do so. Thus, models which purport to predict environmental changes induced by energy crop production must take into account those economic features which will influence land use change. In this paper, we present an approach for projecting the probable environmental impacts of growing energy crops at the regional scale. The approach takes into account both economic and environmental factors. We demonstrate the approach by analyzing, at a county-level the probable impact of switchgrass production on erosion, evapotranspiration, nitrate in runoff, and phosphorous fertilizer use in multi-county subregions within the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) region. Our results show that the adoption of switchgrass production will have different impacts in each subregion as a result of differences in the initial land use and soil conditions in the subregions. Erosion, evapotranspiration, and nitrate in runoff are projected to decrease in both subregions as switchgrass displaces the current crops. Phosphorous fertilizer applications are likely to increase in one subregion and decrease in the other due to initial differences in the types of conventional crops grown in each subregion. Overall these changes portend an improvement in water quality in the subregions with the increasing adoption of switchgrass.

  2. Renewable biomass energy: Understanding regional scale environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graham, R.L.; Downing, M.

    1993-01-01

    If biomass energy is to become a significant component of the US energy sector, millions of acres of farmland must be converted to energy crops. The environmental implications of this change in land use must be quantitatively evaluated. The land use changes will be largely driven by economic considerations. Farmers will grow energy crops when it is profitable to do so. Thus, models which purport to predict environmental changes induced by energy crop production must take into account those economic features which will influence land use change. In this paper, we present an approach for projecting the probable environmental impacts of growing energy crops at the regional scale. The approach takes into account both economic and environmental factors. We demonstrate the approach by analyzing, at a county-level, the probable impact of switchgrass production on erosion, evapotranspiration, nitrate in runoff, and phosphorous fertilizer use in two multi-county subregions within the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) region. Our results show that the adoption of switchgrass production will have different impacts in each subregion as a result of differences in the initial land use and soil conditions in the subregions. Erosion, evapotranspiration, and nitrate in runoff are projected to decrease in both subregions as switchgrass displaces the current crops. Phosphorous fertilizer applications are likely to increase in one subregion and decrease in the other due to initial differences in the types of conventional crops grown in each subregion. Overall these changes portend an improvement in water quality in the subregions with the increasing adoption of switchgrass

  3. Understanding Large-scale Structure in the SSA22 Protocluster Region Using Cosmological Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topping, Michael W.; Shapley, Alice E.; Steidel, Charles C.; Naoz, Smadar; Primack, Joel R.

    2018-01-01

    We investigate the nature and evolution of large-scale structure within the SSA22 protocluster region at z = 3.09 using cosmological simulations. A redshift histogram constructed from current spectroscopic observations of the SSA22 protocluster reveals two separate peaks at z = 3.065 (blue) and z = 3.095 (red). Based on these data, we report updated overdensity and mass calculations for the SSA22 protocluster. We find {δ }b,{gal}=4.8+/- 1.8 and {δ }r,{gal}=9.5+/- 2.0 for the blue and red peaks, respectively, and {δ }t,{gal}=7.6+/- 1.4 for the entire region. These overdensities correspond to masses of {M}b=(0.76+/- 0.17)× {10}15{h}-1 {M}ȯ , {M}r=(2.15+/- 0.32)× {10}15{h}-1 {M}ȯ , and {M}t=(3.19+/- 0.40)× {10}15{h}-1 {M}ȯ for the red, blue, and total peaks, respectively. We use the Small MultiDark Planck (SMDPL) simulation to identify comparably massive z∼ 3 protoclusters, and uncover the underlying structure and ultimate fate of the SSA22 protocluster. For this analysis, we construct mock redshift histograms for each simulated z∼ 3 protocluster, quantitatively comparing them with the observed SSA22 data. We find that the observed double-peaked structure in the SSA22 redshift histogram corresponds not to a single coalescing cluster, but rather the proximity of a ∼ {10}15{h}-1 {M}ȯ protocluster and at least one > {10}14{h}-1 {M}ȯ cluster progenitor. Such associations in the SMDPL simulation are easily understood within the framework of hierarchical clustering of dark matter halos. We finally find that the opportunity to observe such a phenomenon is incredibly rare, with an occurrence rate of 7.4{h}3 {{{Gpc}}}-3. Based on data obtained at the W.M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and was made possible by the generous financial support of the W.M. Keck Foundation.

  4. Soil organic matter dynamics and CO2 fluxes in relation to landscape scale processes: linking process understanding to regional scale carbon mass-balances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Oost, Kristof; Nadeu, Elisabet; Wiaux, François; Wang, Zhengang; Stevens, François; Vanclooster, Marnik; Tran, Anh; Bogaert, Patrick; Doetterl, Sebastian; Lambot, Sébastien; Van wesemael, Bas

    2014-05-01

    In this paper, we synthesize the main outcomes of a collaborative project (2009-2014) initiated at the UCL (Belgium). The main objective of the project was to increase our understanding of soil organic matter dynamics in complex landscapes and use this to improve predictions of regional scale soil carbon balances. In a first phase, the project characterized the emergent spatial variability in soil organic matter storage and key soil properties at the regional scale. Based on the integration of remote sensing, geomorphological and soil analysis techniques, we quantified the temporal and spatial variability of soil carbon stock and pool distribution at the local and regional scales. This work showed a linkage between lateral fluxes of C in relation with sediment transport and the spatial variation in carbon storage at multiple spatial scales. In a second phase, the project focused on characterizing key controlling factors and process interactions at the catena scale. In-situ experiments of soil CO2 respiration showed that the soil carbon response at the catena scale was spatially heterogeneous and was mainly controlled by the catenary variation of soil physical attributes (soil moisture, temperature, C quality). The hillslope scale characterization relied on advanced hydrogeophysical techniques such as GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar), EMI (Electromagnetic induction), ERT (Electrical Resistivity Tomography), and geophysical inversion and data mining tools. Finally, we report on the integration of these insights into a coupled and spatially explicit model and its application. Simulations showed that C stocks and redistribution of mass and energy fluxes are closely coupled, they induce structured spatial and temporal patterns with non negligible attached uncertainties. We discuss the main outcomes of these activities in relation to sink-source behavior and relevance of erosion processes for larger-scale C budgets.

  5. Understanding scaling laws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lysenko, W.P.

    1986-01-01

    Accelerator scaling laws how they can be generated, and how they are used are discussed. A scaling law is a relation between machine parameters and beam parameters. An alternative point of view is that a scaling law is an imposed relation between the equations of motion and the initial conditions. The relation between the parameters is obtained by requiring the beam to be matched. (A beam is said to be matched if the phase-space distribution function is a function of single-particle invariants of the motion.) Because of this restriction, the number of independent parameters describing the system is reduced. Using simple models for bunched- and unbunched-beam situations. Scaling laws are shown to determine the general behavior of beams in accelerators. Such knowledge is useful in design studies for new machines such as high-brightness linacs. The simple model presented shows much of the same behavior as a more detailed RFQ model

  6. Understanding urban water performance at the city-region scale using an urban water metabolism evaluation framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renouf, Marguerite A; Kenway, Steven J; Lam, Ka Leung; Weber, Tony; Roux, Estelle; Serrao-Neumann, Silvia; Choy, Darryl Low; Morgan, Edward A

    2018-06-15

    Water sensitive interventions are being promoted to reduce the adverse impacts of urban development on natural water cycles. However it is currently difficult to know the best strategy for their implementation because current and desired urban water performance is not well quantified. This is particularly at the city-region scale, which is important for strategic urban planning. This work aimed to fill this gap by quantifying the water performance of urban systems within city-regions using 'urban water metabolism' evaluation, to inform decisions about water sensitive interventions. To do this we adapted an existing evaluation framework with new methods. In particular, we used land use data for defining system boundaries, and for estimating natural hydrological flows. The criteria for gauging the water performance were water efficiency (in terms of water extracted externally) and hydrological performance (how much natural hydrological flows have changed relative to a nominated pre-urbanised state). We compared these performance criteria for urban systems within three Australian city-regions (South East Queensland, Melbourne and Perth metropolitan areas), under current conditions, and after implementation of example water sensitive interventions (demand management, rainwater/stormwater harvesting, wastewater recycling and increasing perviousness). The respective water efficiencies were found to be 79, 90 and 133 kL/capita/yr. In relation to hydrological performance, stormwater runoff relative to pre-urbanised flows was of most note, estimated to be 2-, 6- and 3- fold, respectively. The estimated performance benefits from water sensitive interventions suggested different priorities for each region, and that combined implementation of a range of interventions may be necessary to make substantive gains in performance. We concluded that the framework is suited to initial screening of the type and scale of water sensitive interventions needed to achieve desired water

  7. Exotic Fish in Exotic Plantations: A Multi-Scale Approach to Understand Amphibian Occurrence in the Mediterranean Region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joana Cruz

    Full Text Available Globally, amphibian populations are threatened by a diverse range of factors including habitat destruction and alteration. Forestry practices have been linked with low diversity and abundance of amphibians. The effect of exotic Eucalyptus spp. plantations on amphibian communities has been studied in a number of biodiversity hotspots, but little is known of its impact in the Mediterranean region. Here, we identify the environmental factors influencing the presence of six species of amphibians (the Caudata Pleurodeles waltl, Salamandra salamandra, Lissotriton boscai, Triturus marmoratus and the anurans Pelobates cultripes and Hyla arborea/meridionalis occupying 88 ponds. The study was conducted in a Mediterranean landscape dominated by eucalypt plantations alternated with traditional use (agricultural, montados and native forest at three different scales: local (pond, intermediate (400 metres radius buffer and broad (1000 metres radius buffer. Using the Akaike Information Criterion for small samples (AICc, we selected the top-ranked models for estimating the probability of occurrence of each species at each spatial scale separately and across all three spatial scales, using a combination of covariates from the different magnitudes. Models with a combination of covariates at the different spatial scales had a stronger support than those at individual scales. The presence of predatory fish in a pond had a strong effect on Caudata presence. Permanent ponds were selected by Hyla arborea/meridionalis over temporary ponds. Species occurrence was not increased by a higher density of streams, but the density of ponds impacted negatively on Lissotriton boscai. The proximity of ponds occupied by their conspecifics had a positive effect on the occurrence of Lissotriton boscai and Pleurodeles waltl. Eucalypt plantations had a negative effect on the occurrence of the newt Lissotriton boscai and anurans Hyla arborea/meridionalis, but had a positive effect on

  8. Regional Arctic System Model (RASM): A Tool to Advance Understanding and Prediction of Arctic Climate Change at Process Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Brunke, M.; Cassano, J. J.; Clement Kinney, J. L.; Craig, A.; Duvivier, A.; Fisel, B. J.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Hamman, J.; Hughes, M.; Nijssen, B.; Zeng, X.

    2014-12-01

    The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic changes, which are some of the most coordinated changes currently occurring anywhere on Earth. They are exemplified by the retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, which integrates forcing by, exchanges with and feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean and land. While historical reconstructions from Global Climate and Global Earth System Models (GC/ESMs) are in broad agreement with these changes, the rate of change in the GC/ESMs remains outpaced by observations. Reasons for that stem from a combination of coarse model resolution, inadequate parameterizations, unrepresented processes and a limited knowledge of physical and other real world interactions. We demonstrate the capability of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) in addressing some of the GC/ESM limitations in simulating observed seasonal to decadal variability and trends in the sea ice cover and climate. RASM is a high resolution, fully coupled, pan-Arctic climate model that uses the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. It uses the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and Parallel Ocean Program (POP) configured at an eddy-permitting resolution of 1/12° as well as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models at 50 km resolution. All RASM components are coupled via the CESM flux coupler (CPL7) at 20-minute intervals. RASM is an example of limited-area, process-resolving, fully coupled earth system model, which due to the additional constraints from lateral boundary conditions and nudging within a regional model domain facilitates detailed comparisons with observational statistics that are not possible with GC/ESMs. In this talk, we will emphasize the utility of RASM to understand sensitivity to variable parameter space, importance of critical processes, coupled feedbacks and ultimately to reduce uncertainty in arctic climate change projections.

  9. Analyzing cloud base at local and regional scales to understand tropical montane cloud forest vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; González, Grizelle; Scholl, Martha A.

    2017-01-01

    The degree to which cloud immersion provides water in addition to rainfall, suppresses transpiration, and sustains tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) during rainless periods is not well understood. Climate and land use changes represent a threat to these forests if cloud base altitude rises as a result of regional warming or deforestation. To establish a baseline for quantifying future changes in cloud base, we installed a ceilometer at 100 m altitude in the forest upwind of the TMCF that occupies an altitude range from ∼ 600 m to the peaks at 1100 m in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. Airport Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) ceilometer data, radiosonde data, and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite data were obtained to investigate seasonal cloud base dynamics, altitude of the trade-wind inversion (TWI), and typical cloud thickness for the surrounding Caribbean region. Cloud base is rarely quantified near mountains, so these results represent a first look at seasonal and diurnal cloud base dynamics for the TMCF. From May 2013 to August 2016, cloud base was lowest during the midsummer dry season, and cloud bases were lower than the mountaintops as often in the winter dry season as in the wet seasons. The lowest cloud bases most frequently occurred at higher elevation than 600 m, from 740 to 964 m. The Luquillo forest low cloud base altitudes were higher than six other sites in the Caribbean by ∼ 200–600 m, highlighting the importance of site selection to measure topographic influence on cloud height. Proximity to the oceanic cloud system where shallow cumulus clouds are seasonally invariant in altitude and cover, along with local trade-wind orographic lifting and cloud formation, may explain the dry season low clouds. The results indicate that climate change threats to low-elevation TMCFs are not limited to the dry season; changes in synoptic-scale weather patterns

  10. Analyzing cloud base at local and regional scales to understand tropical montane cloud forest vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashley E. Van Beusekom; Grizelle Gonzalez; Martha A. Scholl

    2017-01-01

    The degree to which cloud immersion provides water in addition to rainfall, suppresses transpiration, and sustains tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) during rainless periods is not well understood. Climate and land use changes represent a threat to these forests if cloud base altitude rises as a result of regional warming or deforestation. To establish a baseline...

  11. Pertinent spatio-temporal scale of observation to understand suspended sediment yield control factors in the Andean region: the case of the Santa River (Peru)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morera, S. B.; Condom, T.; Vauchel, P.; Guyot, J.-L.; Galvez, C.; Crave, A.

    2013-11-01

    Hydro-sedimentology development is a great challenge in Peru due to limited data as well as sparse and confidential information. This study aimed to quantify and to understand the suspended sediment yield from the west-central Andes Mountains and to identify the main erosion-control factors and their relevance. The Tablachaca River (3132 km2) and the Santa River (6815 km2), located in two adjacent Andes catchments, showed similar statistical daily rainfall and discharge variability but large differences in specific suspended-sediment yield (SSY). In order to investigate the main erosion factors, daily water discharge and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) datasets of the Santa and Tablachaca rivers were analysed. Mining activity in specific lithologies was identified as the major factor that controls the high SSY of the Tablachaca (2204 t km2 yr-1), which is four times greater than the Santa's SSY. These results show that the analysis of control factors of regional SSY at the Andes scale should be done carefully. Indeed, spatial data at kilometric scale and also daily water discharge and SSC time series are needed to define the main erosion factors along the entire Andean range.

  12. Pertinent spatio-temporal scale of observation to understand sediment yield control factors in the Andean Region: the case of the Santa River (Peru)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morera, S. B.; Condom, T.; Vauchel, P.; Guyot, J.-L.; Galvez, C.; Crave, A.

    2013-01-01

    Hydro-sedimentology development is a great challenge in Peru due to limited data as well as sparse and confidential information. Consequently, little is known at present about the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), precipitation, runoff, land use and the sediment transport dynamics. The aim of this paper is to bridge this gap in order to quantify and understand the signal of magnitude and frequency of the sediment fluxes from the central western Andes; also, to identify the main erosion control factor and its relevance. The Tablachaca River (3132 km2) and the Santa River (6815 km2), two mountainous Andean catchments that are geographically close to each other, both showed similar statistical daily rainfall and discharge variability but high contrast in sediment yield (SY). In order to investigate which factors are of importance, the continuous water discharge and hourly suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) of the Santa River were studied. Firstly, the specific sediment yield (SSY) at the continental Andes range scale for the Pacific side is one of the highest amounts (2204 t km2 yr-1). Secondly, no relationship between the water discharge (Q) and El Niño/La Niñ a events is found over a 54 yr time period. However, the Santa Basin is highly sensitive during mega Niños (1982-1983 and 1997-1998). Lastly, dispersed micro-mining and mining activity in specific lithologies are identified as the major factors that control the high SSY. These remarks make the Peruvian coast key areas for future research on Andean sediment rates.

  13. Scaling Principles for Understanding and Exploiting Adhesion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, Alfred

    A grand challenge in the science of adhesion is the development of a general design paradigm for adhesive materials that can sustain large forces across an interface yet be detached with minimal force upon command. Essential to this challenge is the generality of achieving this performance under a wide set of external conditions and across an extensive range of forces. Nature has provided some guidance through various examples, e.g. geckos, for how to meet this challenge; however, a single solution is not evident upon initial investigation. To help provide insight into nature's ability to scale reversible adhesion and adapt to different external constraints, we have developed a general scaling theory that describes the force capacity of an adhesive interface in the context of biological locomotion. We have demonstrated that this scaling theory can be used to understand the relative performance of a wide range of organisms, including numerous gecko species and insects, as well as an extensive library of synthetic adhesive materials. We will present the development and testing of this scaling theory, and how this understanding has helped guide the development of new composite materials for high capacity adhesives. We will also demonstrate how this scaling theory has led to the development of new strategies for transfer printing and adhesive applications in manufacturing processes. Overall, the developed scaling principles provide a framework for guiding the design of adhesives.

  14. Data-Model Assimilation at the FACE and AmeriFlux Sites Toward Predictive Understanding of Carbon Sequestration at Ecosystem and Regional Scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Yiqi [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)

    2013-01-09

    The project was conducted during the period from 9/1/2007 to 8/31/2011 with three major tasks: (1) development of data assimilation (DA) techniques for terrestrial carbon research; (2) applications of DA techniques to analysis of carbon cycle at Duke and other FACE sites; and (3) inverse analysis at AmeriFlux sites. During this period, we have developed a variety of techniques, including (1) ensemble Kalman filter to estimate model parameters or state variables (Gao et al. 2011), (2) Conditional inversion to estimate parameters of a carbon cycle model (Wu et al. 2009), and (3) various methods to quantify uncertainty of estimated parameters and predicted C sinks (e.g., Weng et al. 2011), and (4) information theory to evaluate information content of different model structures and data sets (Weng and Luo 2011). We applied the DA techniques to and did modeling at the Duke FACE and other global change experimental sites. We addressed the following issues: (1) interactive effects of CO2, warming and precipitation on ecosystem processes (e.g., Luo et al. 2008, Weng and Luo 2008, Zhou et al. 2008), (2) effects of warming on estimated parameters related to photosynthesis and residence times (Zhou et al. 2010); and (3) uncertainty in estimated parameters and predicted C sequestration (Gao et al. 2011, Weng and Luo 2011). In addition, we have done data assimilation to estimate carbon residence and carbon sequestration in US continent (Zhou and Luo 2008) and temperature sensitivity at the global scale (Zhou et al. 2009).

  15. Spatial scale separation in regional climate modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feser, F.

    2005-07-01

    In this thesis the concept of scale separation is introduced as a tool for first improving regional climate model simulations and, secondly, to explicitly detect and describe the added value obtained by regional modelling. The basic idea behind this is that global and regional climate models have their best performance at different spatial scales. Therefore the regional model should not alter the global model's results at large scales. The for this purpose designed concept of nudging of large scales controls the large scales within the regional model domain and keeps them close to the global forcing model whereby the regional scales are left unchanged. For ensemble simulations nudging of large scales strongly reduces the divergence of the different simulations compared to the standard approach ensemble that occasionally shows large differences for the individual realisations. For climate hindcasts this method leads to results which are on average closer to observed states than the standard approach. Also the analysis of the regional climate model simulation can be improved by separating the results into different spatial domains. This was done by developing and applying digital filters that perform the scale separation effectively without great computational effort. The separation of the results into different spatial scales simplifies model validation and process studies. The search for 'added value' can be conducted on the spatial scales the regional climate model was designed for giving clearer results than by analysing unfiltered meteorological fields. To examine the skill of the different simulations pattern correlation coefficients were calculated between the global reanalyses, the regional climate model simulation and, as a reference, of an operational regional weather analysis. The regional climate model simulation driven with large-scale constraints achieved a high increase in similarity to the operational analyses for medium-scale 2 meter

  16. Understanding the Otherness in the Danube Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Popova

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to discuss the attitudes towards the Otherness in the Danube region. A monograph dedicated to the notions about the Otherness in Bulgaria. Theoretical clarification of the nature and types of Otherness in general and finding its expression in the public opinion within the Danube region. The general conclusion drawn in the paper is that the citizens of the Danube countries have different attitudes towards the “own”, indigenous otherness and external, exogenous otherness due to the complicated political situation, linked with the transnational migration. The paper results can serve as a preliminary basis for various studies in the field of ethnicity, gender equality, problems of disadvantaged people, etc. The study will contribute to better understanding of the Otherness as one of the most sensitive problems of the contemporary societies and will shed light on this matter in the Danube countries.

  17. Towards understanding resprouting at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pausas, Juli G.; Pratt, R. Brandon; Keeley, Jon E.; Jacobsen, Anna L.; Ramirez, Aaron R.; Vilagrosa, Alberto; Paula, Susana; Kanekua-Pia, Iolana N.; Davis, Stephen D.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding and predicting plant response to disturbance is of paramount importance in our changing world. Resprouting ability is often considered a simple qualitative trait and used in many ecological studies. Our aim is to show some of the complexities of resprouting while highlighting cautions that need be taken in using resprouting ability to predict vegetation responses across disturbance types and biomes. There are marked differences in resprouting depending on the disturbance type, and fire is often the most severe disturbance because it includes both defoliation and lethal temperatures. In the Mediterranean biome, there are differences in functional strategies to cope with water deficit between resprouters (dehydration avoiders) and nonresprouters (dehydration tolerators); however, there is little research to unambiguously extrapolate these results to other biomes. Furthermore, predictions of vegetation responses to changes in disturbance regimes require consideration not only of resprouting, but also other relevant traits (e.g. seeding, bark thickness) and the different correlations among traits observed in different biomes; models lacking these details would behave poorly at the global scale. Overall, the lessons learned from a given disturbance regime and biome (e.g. crown-fire Mediterranean ecosystems) can guide research in other ecosystems but should not be extrapolated at the global scale.

  18. Shadowing in the scaling region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, G.

    1989-01-01

    The approximate scaling behaviour of the shadowing effect at small χ, recently observed in deep inelastic muon scattering experiments on nuclei, is shown to arise naturally at very large ν in those hadron dominance models, formulated many years ago, which are dual to the parton model. At smaller ν small scale breaking effects are expected, which sould die away as ν increases. The predicted shadowing decreases rapidly with increasing χ, at a rate which is only weakly dependent on the atomic number A for reasonably large A. (orig.)

  19. Large-scale regions of antimatter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grobov, A. V.; Rubin, S. G.

    2015-01-01

    Amodified mechanism of the formation of large-scale antimatter regions is proposed. Antimatter appears owing to fluctuations of a complex scalar field that carries a baryon charge in the inflation era

  20. Large-scale regions of antimatter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grobov, A. V., E-mail: alexey.grobov@gmail.com; Rubin, S. G., E-mail: sgrubin@mephi.ru [National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Russian Federation)

    2015-07-15

    Amodified mechanism of the formation of large-scale antimatter regions is proposed. Antimatter appears owing to fluctuations of a complex scalar field that carries a baryon charge in the inflation era.

  1. Understanding Regional Actors: A Case Study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Harden, James

    2002-01-01

    .... It is possible the estimation process could improve if greater attention was given to the interests, challenges, and opportunities of the regional actors involved, rather than concentrating on U.S. interests...

  2. Understanding Great Earthquakes in Japan's Kanto Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Reiji; Curewitz, Daniel

    2008-10-01

    Third International Workshop on the Kanto Asperity Project; Chiba, Japan, 16-19 February 2008; The 1703 (Genroku) and 1923 (Taisho) earthquakes in Japan's Kanto region (M 8.2 and M 7.9, respectively) caused severe damage in the Tokyo metropolitan area. These great earthquakes occurred along the Sagami Trough, where the Philippine Sea slab is subducting beneath Japan. Historical records, paleoseismological research, and geophysical/geodetic monitoring in the region indicate that such great earthquakes will repeat in the future.

  3. Multi-scale Regions from Edge Fragments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kazmi, Wajahat; Andersen, Hans Jørgen

    2014-01-01

    In this article we introduce a novel method for detecting multi-scale salient regions around edges using a graph based image compression algorithm. Images are recursively decomposed into triangles arranged into a binary tree using linear interpolation. The entropy of any local region of the image......), their performance is comparable to SIFT (Lowe, 2004).We also show that when they are used together with MSERs (Matas et al., 2002), the performance of MSERs is boosted....

  4. Understanding Listening Competency: A Systematic Review of Research Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontana, Peter C.; Cohen, Steven D.; Wolvin, Andrew D.

    2015-01-01

    To better understand what constitutes listening competency, we perform a systematic review of listening scales. Our goal was twofold: to determine the most commonly appearing listening traits and to determine if listening scales are similar to one other. As part of our analysis, we identified 53 relevant scales and analyzed the scales…

  5. Ecosystem assessment methods for cumulative effects at the regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunsaker, C.T.

    1989-01-01

    Environmental issues such as nonpoint-source pollution, acid rain, reduced biodiversity, land use change, and climate change have widespread ecological impacts and require an integrated assessment approach. Since 1978, the implementing regulations for the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) have required assessment of potential cumulative environmental impacts. Current environmental issues have encouraged ecologists to improve their understanding of ecosystem process and function at several spatial scales. However, management activities usually occur at the local scale, and there is little consideration of the potential impacts to the environmental quality of a region. This paper proposes that regional ecological risk assessment provides a useful approach for assisting scientists in accomplishing the task of assessing cumulative impacts. Critical issues such as spatial heterogeneity, boundary definition, and data aggregation are discussed. Examples from an assessment of acidic deposition effects on fish in Adirondack lakes illustrate the importance of integrated data bases, associated modeling efforts, and boundary definition at the regional scale

  6. Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Matthew; Minobe, Shoshiro; Barreiro, Marcelo; Bordoni, Simona; Kaspi, Yohai; Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira; Keenlyside, Noel; Manzini, Elisa; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Sutton, Rowan; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zolina, Olga

    2018-01-01

    Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.

  7. Spatial scaling of regional strategic programmes in Finland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Makkonen, Teemu; Inkinen, Tommi

    2014-01-01

    framework. Spatial scales proved to be a black box for regional strategies in Finland. Regional strategic programmes use a similar language that ignores the spatial variations of their locations. Clusters and regional innovation systems should be considered as parts of vertical and horizontal interlinkages...... within the economy and not as individual islands of organizational proximities in isolated contexts. It is argued here that an imprecise understanding of the innovation systems and cluster approaches, both conceptually and practically, has led to some ambiguity, resulting in the use of these terms...

  8. Pressure Scalings and Influence Region Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    AFRL-RQ-WP-TP-2018-0015 PRESSURE SCALINGS AND INFLUENCE REGION RESEARCH James H. Miller High Speed Systems Division...inside pages STINFO COPY AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY AEROSPACE SYSTEMS DIRECTORATE WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, OH... RESEARCH 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER In-house 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 62201F 6. AUTHOR(S) James H. Miller 5d. PROJECT NUMBER

  9. Recent Advances in Understanding Large Scale Vapour Explosions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Board, S.J.; Hall, R.W.

    1976-01-01

    In foundries, violent explosions occur occasionally when molten metal comes into contact with water. If similar explosions can occur with other materials, hazardous situations may arise for example in LNG marine transportation accidents, or in liquid cooled reactor incidents when molten UO 2 contacts water or sodium coolant. Over the last 10 years a large body of experimental data has been obtained on the behaviour of small quantities of hot material in contact with a vaporisable coolant. Such experiments generally give low energy yields, despite producing fine fragmentation of the molten material. These events have been interpreted in terms of a wide range of phenomena such as violent boiling, liquid entrainment, bubble collapse, superheat, surface cracking and many others. Many of these studies have been aimed at understanding the small scale behaviour of the particular materials of interest. However, understanding the nature of the energetic events which were the original cause for concern may also be necessary to give confidence that violent events cannot occur for these materials in large scale situations. More recently, there has been a trend towards larger experiments and some of these have produced explosions of moderately high efficiency. Although occurrence of such large scale explosions can depend rather critically on initial conditions in a way which is not fully understood, there are signs that the interpretation of these events may be more straightforward than that of the single drop experiments. In the last two years several theoretical models for large scale explosions have appeared which attempt a self contained explanation of at least some stages of such high yield events: these have as their common feature a description of how a propagating breakdown of an initially quasi-stable distribution of materials is induced by the pressure and flow field caused by the energy release in adjacent regions. These models have led to the idea that for a full

  10. Deliberation and Scale in Mekong Region Water Governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dore, John; Lebel, Louis

    2010-07-01

    Understanding the politics of deliberation, scales, and levels is crucial to understanding the social complexity of water-related governance. Deliberative processes might complement and inform more conventional representational and bureaucratic approaches to planning and decision-making. However, they are also subject to scale and level politics, which can confound institutionalized decision-making. Scale and level contests arise in dialogues and related arenas because different actors privilege particular temporal or spatial scales and levels in their analysis, arguments, and responses. Scale contests might include whether to privilege administrative, hydrological, ecosystem, or economic boundaries. Level contests might include whether to privilege the subdistrict or the province, the tributary watershed or the international river basin, a river or a biogeographic region, and the local or the regional economy. In the Mekong Region there is a recurrent demand for water resources development projects and major policies proposed by governments and investors to be scrutinized in public. Deliberative forms of engagement are potentially very helpful because they encourage supporters and critics to articulate assumptions and reasoning about the different opportunities and risks associated with alternative options, and in doing so, they often traverse and enable higher-quality conversations within and across scales and within and between levels. Six case studies from the Mekong Region are examined. We find evidence that scale and level politics affects the context, process, content, and outcomes of deliberative engagement in a region where public deliberation is still far from being a norm, particularly where there are sensitive and far-reaching choices to be made about water use and energy production.

  11. Understanding bulk behavior of particulate materials from particle scale simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Xiaoliang

    least, numerical simulations, along with theoretical analysis, are performed to investigate the interparticle force of dry coated particles. A model is derived and can be used to predict the probabilities of hose-host (HH), host-guest (HG), and guest-guest (GG) contacts. The results indicate that there are three different regions dominated by HH, HG, and GG contacts, respectively. Moreover, the critical SAC for the transition of HG to GG contacts is lower than previously estimated value. In summary, particle packing, particle dynamics associated with various particle processing devices, and interparticle force of dry coated particles are investigated in this thesis. The results show that particle scale information such as coordination number, collision dynamics, and contact force between particles from simulation results can help better understand bulk properties of assembly of individual particles.

  12. Numbers, scale and symbols: the public understanding of nanotechnology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batt, Carl A.; Waldron, Anna M.; Broadwater, Natalie

    2008-01-01

    Nanotechnology will be an increasing part of the everyday lives of most people in the world. There is a general recognition that few people understand the implications of the technology, the technology itself or even the definition of the word. This lack of understanding stems from a lack of knowledge about science in general but more specifically difficulty in grasping the size scale and symbolism of nanotechnology. A potential key to informing the general public is establishing the ability to comprehend the scale of nanotechnology. Transitioning from the macro to the nanoscale seems to require an ability to comprehend scales of one-billion. Scaling is a skill not common in most individuals and tests of their ability to extrapolate size based upon scaling a common object demonstrates that most individuals cannot scale to the extent needed to make the transition to nanoscale. Symbolism is another important vehicle to providing the general public with a basis to understand the concepts of nanotechnology. With increasing age, individuals are able to draw representations of atomic scale objects, but these tend to be iconic and the different representations not easily translated. Ball and stick models are most recognized by the public, which provides an opportunity to present not only useful symbolism but also a reference point for the atomic scale.

  13. Numbers, scale and symbols: the public understanding of nanotechnology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batt, Carl A.; Waldron, Anna M.; Broadwater, Natalie

    2008-10-01

    Nanotechnology will be an increasing part of the everyday lives of most people in the world. There is a general recognition that few people understand the implications of the technology, the technology itself or even the definition of the word. This lack of understanding stems from a lack of knowledge about science in general but more specifically difficulty in grasping the size scale and symbolism of nanotechnology. A potential key to informing the general public is establishing the ability to comprehend the scale of nanotechnology. Transitioning from the macro to the nanoscale seems to require an ability to comprehend scales of one-billion. Scaling is a skill not common in most individuals and tests of their ability to extrapolate size based upon scaling a common object demonstrates that most individuals cannot scale to the extent needed to make the transition to nanoscale. Symbolism is another important vehicle to providing the general public with a basis to understand the concepts of nanotechnology. With increasing age, individuals are able to draw representations of atomic scale objects, but these tend to be iconic and the different representations not easily translated. Ball and stick models are most recognized by the public, which provides an opportunity to present not only useful symbolism but also a reference point for the atomic scale.

  14. Regional Scale/Regional Climate Model Development and Its Applications at Goddard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W.; Qian, J.; Jia, Y.; Wetzel, P.; Chou, M.-D.; Wang, Y.; Lynn, B.

    2000-01-01

    A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model (Penn State/NCAR MM5) with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America region.

  15. Globalizing Lessons Learned from Regional-scale Observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, S. M.

    2016-02-01

    The Mid Atlantic Regional Association Coastal Ocean Observing System (MARACOOS) has accumulated a decade of experience designing, building and operating a Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System for the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). MARACOOS serves societal goals and supports scientific discovery at the scale of a Large Marine Ecosystem (LME). Societal themes include maritime safety, ecosystem decision support, coastal inundation, water quality and offshore energy. Scientific results that feed back on societal goals with better products include improved understanding of seasonal transport pathways and their impact on phytoplankton blooms and hypoxia, seasonal evolution of the subsurface Mid Atlantic Cold Pool and its impact on fisheries, biogeochemical transformations in coastal plumes, coastal ocean evolution and impact on hurricane intensities, and storm sediment transport pathways. As the global ocean observing requirements grow to support additional societal needs for information on fisheries and aquaculture, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, water quality and offshore development, global observing will necessarily evolve to include more coastal observations and forecast models at the scale of the world's many LMEs. Here we describe our efforts to share lessons learned between the observatory operators at the regional-scale of the LMEs. Current collaborators are spread across Europe, and also include Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil and South Africa. Specific examples include the development of a world standard QA/QC approach for HF Radar data that will foster the sharing of data between countries, basin-scale underwater glider missions between internationally-distributed glider ports to developed a shared understanding of operations and an ongoing evaluation of the global ocean models in which the regional models for the LME will be nested, and joint training programs to develop the distributed teams of scientists and technicians

  16. Scaling of theory-of-mind understandings in Chinese children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellman, Henry M; Fang, Fuxi; Liu, David; Zhu, Liqi; Liu, Guoxiong

    2006-12-01

    Prior research demonstrates that understanding of theory of mind develops at different paces in children raised in different cultures. Are these differences simply differences in timing, or do they represent different patterns of cultural learning? That is, to what extent are sequences of theory-of-mind understanding universal, and to what extent are they culture-specific? We addressed these questions by using a theory-of-mind scale to examine performance of 140 Chinese children living in Beijing and to compare their performance with that of 135 English-speaking children living in the United States and Australia. Results reveal a common sequence of understanding, as well as sociocultural differences in children's developing theories of mind.

  17. Understanding ocean acidification impacts on organismal to ecological scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Andreas J; Kline, David I; Edmunds, Peter J; Archer, Stephen D; Bednaršek, Nina; Carpenter, Robert C; Chadsey, Meg; Goldstein, Philip; Grottoli, Andrea G.; Hurst, Thomas P; King, Andrew L; Kübler, Janet E.; Kuffner, Ilsa B.; Mackey, Katherine R M; Menge, Bruce A.; Paytan, Adina; Riebesell, Ulf; Schnetzer, Astrid; Warner, Mark E; Zimmerman, Richard C

    2015-01-01

    Ocean acidification (OA) research seeks to understand how marine ecosystems and global elemental cycles will respond to changes in seawater carbonate chemistry in combination with other environmental perturbations such as warming, eutrophication, and deoxygenation. Here, we discuss the effectiveness and limitations of current research approaches used to address this goal. A diverse combination of approaches is essential to decipher the consequences of OA to marine organisms, communities, and ecosystems. Consequently, the benefits and limitations of each approach must be considered carefully. Major research challenges involve experimentally addressing the effects of OA in the context of large natural variability in seawater carbonate system parameters and other interactive variables, integrating the results from different research approaches, and scaling results across different temporal and spatial scales.

  18. Geopolitics: The Key to Understanding Soviet Regional Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-04-01

    Soviet foreign policy. nertnngthis role, CO can begin to build a usable theoretical framwork for analyzing Soviet behavior in, utategiczlly inportant...the writings of the great geopolitical theorists, such as Mackinder, Spykman, and Gray, in developing a conceptual basis for understanding the la-tem...Histary,- British geographer Sir Halford J. mdcinder provided the conceptual framewrk for geopolitical theory by dividing the world into three vast regions

  19. Biogas infrastructure from farm-scale to regional scale, line-pack storage in biogas grids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hengeveld, Evert Jan

    2016-01-01

    Biogas infrastructure from farm-scale to regional scale, line-pack storage in biogas grids. The number of local and regional initiatives encouraging the production and use of regional produced energy grows. In these new developments biogas can play a role, as a producer of energy, but also in

  20. Regional averaging and scaling in relativistic cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchert, Thomas; Carfora, Mauro

    2002-01-01

    Averaged inhomogeneous cosmologies lie at the forefront of interest, since cosmological parameters such as the rate of expansion or the mass density are to be considered as volume-averaged quantities and only these can be compared with observations. For this reason the relevant parameters are intrinsically scale-dependent and one wishes to control this dependence without restricting the cosmological model by unphysical assumptions. In the latter respect we contrast our way to approach the averaging problem in relativistic cosmology with shortcomings of averaged Newtonian models. Explicitly, we investigate the scale-dependence of Eulerian volume averages of scalar functions on Riemannian three-manifolds. We propose a complementary view of a Lagrangian smoothing of (tensorial) variables as opposed to their Eulerian averaging on spatial domains. This programme is realized with the help of a global Ricci deformation flow for the metric. We explain rigorously the origin of the Ricci flow which, on heuristic grounds, has already been suggested as a possible candidate for smoothing the initial dataset for cosmological spacetimes. The smoothing of geometry implies a renormalization of averaged spatial variables. We discuss the results in terms of effective cosmological parameters that would be assigned to the smoothed cosmological spacetime. In particular, we find that on the smoothed spatial domain B-bar evaluated cosmological parameters obey Ω-bar B-bar m + Ω-bar B-bar R + Ω-bar B-bar A + Ω-bar B-bar Q 1, where Ω-bar B-bar m , Ω-bar B-bar R and Ω-bar B-bar A correspond to the standard Friedmannian parameters, while Ω-bar B-bar Q is a remnant of cosmic variance of expansion and shear fluctuations on the averaging domain. All these parameters are 'dressed' after smoothing out the geometrical fluctuations, and we give the relations of the 'dressed' to the 'bare' parameters. While the former provide the framework of interpreting observations with a 'Friedmannian bias

  1. Aerosol-cloud interactions from urban, regional to global scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yuan [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States). Seismological Lab.

    2015-10-01

    The studies in this dissertation aim at advancing our scientific understandings about physical processes involved in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction and quantitatively assessing the impacts of aerosols on the cloud systems with diverse scales over the globe on the basis of the observational data analysis and various modeling studies. As recognized in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change, the magnitude of radiative forcing by atmospheric aerosols is highly uncertain, representing the largest uncertainty in projections of future climate by anthropogenic activities. By using a newly implemented cloud microphysical scheme in the cloud-resolving model, the thesis assesses aerosol-cloud interaction for distinct weather systems, ranging from individual cumulus to mesoscale convective systems. This thesis also introduces a novel hierarchical modeling approach that solves a long outstanding mismatch between simulations by regional weather models and global climate models in the climate modeling community. More importantly, the thesis provides key scientific solutions to several challenging questions in climate science, including the global impacts of the Asian pollution. As scientists wrestle with the complexities of climate change in response to varied anthropogenic forcing, perhaps no problem is more challenging than the understanding of the impacts of atmospheric aerosols from air pollution on clouds and the global circulation.

  2. Aerosol-cloud interactions from urban, regional to global scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Yuan

    2015-01-01

    The studies in this dissertation aim at advancing our scientific understandings about physical processes involved in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction and quantitatively assessing the impacts of aerosols on the cloud systems with diverse scales over the globe on the basis of the observational data analysis and various modeling studies. As recognized in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change, the magnitude of radiative forcing by atmospheric aerosols is highly uncertain, representing the largest uncertainty in projections of future climate by anthropogenic activities. By using a newly implemented cloud microphysical scheme in the cloud-resolving model, the thesis assesses aerosol-cloud interaction for distinct weather systems, ranging from individual cumulus to mesoscale convective systems. This thesis also introduces a novel hierarchical modeling approach that solves a long outstanding mismatch between simulations by regional weather models and global climate models in the climate modeling community. More importantly, the thesis provides key scientific solutions to several challenging questions in climate science, including the global impacts of the Asian pollution. As scientists wrestle with the complexities of climate change in response to varied anthropogenic forcing, perhaps no problem is more challenging than the understanding of the impacts of atmospheric aerosols from air pollution on clouds and the global circulation.

  3. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  4. Understanding healthcare innovation systems: the Stockholm region case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larisch, Lisa-Marie; Amer-Wåhlin, Isis; Hidefjäll, Patrik

    2016-11-21

    Purpose There is an increasing interest in understanding how innovation processes can address current challenges in healthcare. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the wider socio-economic context and conditions for such innovation processes in the Stockholm region, using the functional dynamics approach to innovation systems (ISs). Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on triangulation using data from 16 in-depth interviews, two workshops, and additional documents. Using the functional dynamics approach, critical structural and functional components of the healthcare IS were analyzed. Findings The analysis revealed several mechanisms blocking innovation processes such as fragmentation, lack of clear leadership, as well as insufficient involvement of patients and healthcare professionals. Furthermore, innovation is expected to occur linearly as a result of research. Restrictive rules for collaboration with industry, reimbursement, and procurement mechanisms limit entrepreneurial experimentation, commercialization, and spread of innovations. Research limitations/implications In this study, the authors analyzed how certain functions of the functional dynamics approach to ISs related to each other. The authors grouped knowledge creation, resource mobilization, and legitimacy as they jointly constitute conditions for needs articulation and entrepreneurial experimentation. The economic effects of entrepreneurial experimentation and needs articulation are mainly determined by the stage of market formation and existence of positive externalities. Social implications Stronger user involvement; a joint innovation strategy for healthcare, academia, and industry; and institutional reform are necessary to remove blocking mechanisms that today prevent innovation from occurring. Originality/value This study is the first to provide an analysis of the system of innovation in healthcare using a functional dynamics approach, which has evolved as a tool for public

  5. Regional Scaling of Airborne Eddy Covariance Flux Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachs, T.; Serafimovich, A.; Metzger, S.; Kohnert, K.; Hartmann, J.

    2014-12-01

    The earth's surface is tightly coupled to the global climate system by the vertical exchange of energy and matter. Thus, to better understand and potentially predict changes to our climate system, it is critical to quantify the surface-atmosphere exchange of heat, water vapor, and greenhouse gases on climate-relevant spatial and temporal scales. Currently, most flux observations consist of ground-based, continuous but local measurements. These provide a good basis for temporal integration, but may not be representative of the larger regional context. This is particularly true for the Arctic, where site selection is additionally bound by logistical constraints, among others. Airborne measurements can overcome this limitation by covering distances of hundreds of kilometers over time periods of a few hours. The Airborne Measurements of Methane Fluxes (AIRMETH) campaigns are designed to quantitatively and spatially explicitly address this issue: The research aircraft POLAR 5 is used to acquire thousands of kilometers of eddy-covariance flux data. During the AIRMETH-2012 and AIRMETH-2013 campaigns we measured the turbulent exchange of energy, methane, and (in 2013) carbon dioxide over the North Slope of Alaska, USA, and the Mackenzie Delta, Canada. Here, we present the potential of environmental response functions (ERFs) for quantitatively linking flux observations to meteorological and biophysical drivers in the flux footprints. We use wavelet transforms of the original high-frequency data to improve spatial discretization of the flux observations. This also enables the quantification of continuous and biophysically relevant land cover properties in the flux footprint of each observation. A machine learning technique is then employed to extract and quantify the functional relationships between flux observations and the meteorological and biophysical drivers. The resulting ERFs are used to extrapolate fluxes over spatio-temporally explicit grids of the study area. The

  6. A regional-scale Ocean Health Index for Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfes, Cristiane T; Longo, Catherine; Halpern, Benjamin S; Hardy, Darren; Scarborough, Courtney; Best, Benjamin D; Pinheiro, Tiago; Dutra, Guilherme F

    2014-01-01

    Brazil has one of the largest and fastest growing economies and one of the largest coastlines in the world, making human use and enjoyment of coastal and marine resources of fundamental importance to the country. Integrated assessments of ocean health are needed to understand the condition of a range of benefits that humans derive from marine systems and to evaluate where attention should be focused to improve the health of these systems. Here we describe the first such assessment for Brazil at both national and state levels. We applied the Ocean Health Index framework, which evaluates ten public goals for healthy oceans. Despite refinements of input data and model formulations, the national score of 60 (out of 100) was highly congruent with the previous global assessment for Brazil of 62. Variability in scores among coastal states was most striking for goals related to mariculture, protected areas, tourism, and clean waters. Extractive goals, including Food Provision, received low scores relative to habitat-related goals, such as Biodiversity. This study demonstrates the applicability of the Ocean Health Index at a regional scale, and its usefulness in highlighting existing data and knowledge gaps and identifying key policy and management recommendations. To improve Brazil's ocean health, this study suggests that future actions should focus on: enhancing fisheries management, expanding marine protected areas, and monitoring coastal habitats.

  7. Understanding hydraulic fracturing: a multi-scale problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyman, J. D.; Jiménez-Martínez, J.; Viswanathan, H. S.; Carey, J. W.; Porter, M. L.; Rougier, E.; Karra, S.; Kang, Q.; Frash, L.; Chen, L.; Lei, Z.; O’Malley, D.; Makedonska, N.

    2016-01-01

    Despite the impact that hydraulic fracturing has had on the energy sector, the physical mechanisms that control its efficiency and environmental impacts remain poorly understood in part because the length scales involved range from nanometres to kilometres. We characterize flow and transport in shale formations across and between these scales using integrated computational, theoretical and experimental efforts/methods. At the field scale, we use discrete fracture network modelling to simulate production of a hydraulically fractured well from a fracture network that is based on the site characterization of a shale gas reservoir. At the core scale, we use triaxial fracture experiments and a finite-discrete element model to study dynamic fracture/crack propagation in low permeability shale. We use lattice Boltzmann pore-scale simulations and microfluidic experiments in both synthetic and shale rock micromodels to study pore-scale flow and transport phenomena, including multi-phase flow and fluids mixing. A mechanistic description and integration of these multiple scales is required for accurate predictions of production and the eventual optimization of hydrocarbon extraction from unconventional reservoirs. Finally, we discuss the potential of CO2 as an alternative working fluid, both in fracturing and re-stimulating activities, beyond its environmental advantages. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Energy and the subsurface’. PMID:27597789

  8. Local magnitude scale for Valle Medio del Magdalena region, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Londoño, John Makario; Romero, Jaime A.

    2017-12-01

    A local Magnitude (ML) scale for Valle Medio del Magdalena (VMM) region was defined by using 514 high quality earthquakes located at VMM area and inversion of 2797 amplitude values of horizontal components of 17 stations seismic broad band stations, simulated in a Wood-Anderson seismograph. The derived local magnitude scale for VMM region was: ML =log(A) + 1.3744 ∗ log(r) + 0.0014776 ∗ r - 2.397 + S Where A is the zero-to-peak amplitude in nm in horizontal components, r is the hypocentral distance in km, and S is the station correction. Higher values of ML were obtained for VMM region compared with those obtained with the current formula used for ML determination, and with California formula. With this new scale ML values are adjusted to local conditions beneath VMM region leading to more realistic ML values. Moreover, with this new ML scale the seismicity caused by tectonic or fracking activity at VMM region can be monitored more accurately.

  9. The Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia: Analyzing Regional Land Use Change Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael Keller; Maria Assunção Silva-Dias; Daniel C. Nepstad; Meinrat O. Andreae

    2004-01-01

    The Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) is a multi-disciplinary, multinational scientific project led by Brazil. LBA researchers seek to understand Amazonia in its global context especially with regard to regional and global climate. Current development activities in Amazonia including deforestation, logging, cattle ranching, and agriculture...

  10. Native American Students' Understanding of Geologic Time Scale: 4th-8th Grade Ojibwe Students' Understanding of Earth's Geologic History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Younkyeong; Karahan, Engin; Roehrig, Gillian

    2016-01-01

    Geologic time scale is a very important concept for understanding long-term earth system events such as climate change. This study examines forty-three 4th-8th grade Native American--particularly Ojibwe tribe--students' understanding of relative ordering and absolute time of Earth's significant geological and biological events. This study also…

  11. Understanding protected area resilience: a multi-scale, social-ecological approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumming, Graeme S.; Allen, Craig R.; Ban, Natalie C.; Biggs, Duan; Biggs, Harry C.; Cumming, David H.M; De Vos, Alta; Epstein, Graham; Etienne, Michel; Maciejewski, Kristine; Mathevet, Raphael; Moore, Christine; Nenadovic, Mateja; Schoon, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Protected areas (PAs) remain central to the conservation of biodiversity. Classical PAs were conceived as areas that would be set aside to maintain a natural state with minimal human influence. However, global environmental change and growing cross-scale anthropogenic influences mean that PAs can no longer be thought of as ecological islands that function independently of the broader social-ecological system in which they are located. For PAs to be resilient (and to contribute to broader social-ecological resilience), they must be able to adapt to changing social and ecological conditions over time in a way that supports the long-term persistence of populations, communities, and ecosystems of conservation concern. We extend Ostrom's social-ecological systems framework to consider the long-term persistence of PAs, as a form of land use embedded in social-ecological systems, with important cross-scale feedbacks. Most notably, we highlight the cross-scale influences and feedbacks on PAs that exist from the local to the global scale, contextualizing PAs within multi-scale social-ecological functional landscapes. Such functional landscapes are integral to understand and manage individual PAs for long-term sustainability. We illustrate our conceptual contribution with three case studies that highlight cross-scale feedbacks and social-ecological interactions in the functioning of PAs and in relation to regional resilience. Our analysis suggests that while ecological, economic, and social processes are often directly relevant to PAs at finer scales, at broader scales, the dominant processes that shape and alter PA resilience are primarily social and economic.

  12. Understanding Obstacles to Peace in the Great Lakes Region ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Africa's Great Lakes region is home to violent and prolonged conflicts that cause a lot of suffering and block socioeconomic progress. Several initiatives are underway to bring peace to the region. But, most of these focus on specific countries and have not taken into account the interrelated and overlapping nature of the ...

  13. Understanding the stopover of migratory birds: a scale dependent approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank R. Moore; Mark S. Woodrey; Jeffrey J. Buler; Stefan Woltmann; Ted R. Simons

    2005-01-01

    The development of comprehensive conservation strategies and management plans for migratory birds depends on understanding migrant-habitat relations throughout the annual cycle, including the time when migrants stopover en route. Yet, the complexity of migration makes the assessment of habitat requirements and development of a comprehensive...

  14. Investigation of the large scale regional hydrogeological situation at Ceberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boghammar, A.; Grundfelt, B.; Hartley, L.

    1997-11-01

    The present study forms part of the large-scale groundwater flow studies within the SR 97 project. The site of interest is Ceberg. Within the present study two different regional scale groundwater models have been constructed, one large regional model with an areal extent of about 300 km 2 and one semi-regional model with an areal extent of about 50 km 2 . Different types of boundary conditions have been applied to the models. Topography driven pressures, constant infiltration rates, non-linear infiltration combined specified pressure boundary conditions, and transfer of groundwater pressures from the larger model to the semi-regional model. The present model has shown that: -Groundwater flow paths are mainly local. Large-scale groundwater flow paths are only seen below the depth of the hypothetical repository (below 500 meters) and are very slow. -Locations of recharge and discharge, to and from the site area are in the close vicinity of the site. -The low contrast between major structures and the rock mass means that the factor having the major effect on the flowpaths is the topography. -A sufficiently large model, to incorporate the recharge and discharge areas to the local site is in the order of kilometres. -A uniform infiltration rate boundary condition does not give a good representation of the groundwater movements in the model. -A local site model may be located to cover the site area and a few kilometers of the surrounding region. In order to incorporate all recharge and discharge areas within the site model, the model will be somewhat larger than site scale models at other sites. This is caused by the fact that the discharge areas are divided into three distinct areas to the east, south and west of the site. -Boundary conditions may be supplied to the site model by means of transferring groundwater pressures obtained with the semi-regional model

  15. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-01-01

    The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

  16. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-03-01

    The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

  17. Understanding large scale groundwater flow in fractured crystalline rocks to aid in repository siting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davison, C.; Brown, A.; Gascoyne, M.; Stevenson, D.; Ophori, D.

    2000-01-01

    Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) conducted a ten-year long groundwater flow study of a 1050 km 2 region of fractured crystalline rock in southeastern Manitoba to illustrate how an understanding of large scale groundwater flow can be used to assist in selecting a hydraulically favourable location for the deep geological disposal of nuclear fuel waste. The study involved extensive field investigations that included the drilling testing, sampling and monitoring of twenty deep boreholes distributed at detailed study areas across the region. The surface and borehole geotechnical investigations were used to construct a conceptual model of the main litho-structural features that controlled groundwater flow through the crystalline rocks of the region. Eighty-three large fracture zones and other spatial domains of moderately fractured and sparsely fractured rocks were represented in a finite element model of the area to simulate regional groundwater flow. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to match the observed groundwater recharge rate and the hydraulic heads measured in the network of deep boreholes. Particle tracking was used to determine the pathways and travel times from different depths in the velocity field of the calibrated groundwater flow model. The results were used to identify locations in the regional flow field that maximize the time it takes for groundwater to travel to surface discharge areas through long, slow groundwater pathways. One of these locations was chosen as a good hypothetical location for situating a nuclear fuel waste disposal vault at 750 m depth. (authors)

  18. Toward regional-scale adjoint tomography in the deep earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masson, Y.; Romanowicz, B. A.

    2013-12-01

    Thanks to the development of efficient numerical computation methods, such as the Spectral Element Method (SEM) and to the increasing power of computer clusters, it is now possible to obtain regional-scale images of the Earth's interior using adjoint-tomography (e.g. Tape, C., et al., 2009). As for now, these tomographic models are limited to the upper layers of the earth, i.e., they provide us with high-resolution images of the crust and the upper part of the mantle. Given the gigantic amount of calculation it represents, obtaing similar models at the global scale (i.e. images of the entire Earth) seems out of reach at the moment. Furthermore, it's likely that the first generation of such global adjoint tomographic models will have a resolution significantly smaller than the current regional models. In order to image regions of interests in the deep Earth, such as plumes, slabs or large low shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs), while keeping the computation tractable, we are developing new tools that will allow us to perform regional-scale adjoint-tomography at arbitrary depths. In a recent study (Masson et al., 2013), we showed that a numerical equivalent of the time reversal mirrors used in experimental acoustics permits to confine the wave propagation computations (i.e. using SEM simulations) inside the region to be imaged. With this ability to limit wave propagation modeling inside a region of interest, obtaining the adjoint sensitivity kernels needed for tomographic imaging is only two steps further. First, the local wavefield modeling needs to be coupled with field extrapolation techniques in order to obtain synthetic seismograms at the surface of the earth. These seismograms will account for the 3D structure inside the region of interest in a quasi-exact manner. We will present preliminary results where the field-extrapolation is performed using Green's function computed in a 1D Earth model thanks to the Direct Solution Method (DSM). Once synthetic seismograms

  19. Regional Commonalities and Regional Identities: Forging a Normative Understanding of Southeast Asian Identity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gürol Baba

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last two decades, most of the IR academia’s attention on Southeast Asian regionalism utilised constructivism and/or realism and has focused on ASEAN and its derivatives. This article aims to skew this angle by elaborating a possible relationship between Asian values and a normative understanding of Southeast Asian identity. The major reason for this article’s focus on a normative interpretation is that a practical application of Southeast Asian identity is not very achievable due to various ethnic, cultural, political, territorial, and historical diversities. While the region is diverse, there are also a number of commonalities among its states. Asian values, from a Confucian perspective, account for some of these commonalities. By using constructivists’ claims on both the links between norms and identity and the dynamic interaction between values and norms, this article argues that Asian values could contribute to the development of Amitav Acharya’s widely cited normative/ideational format of Southeast Asian identity. The article takes ASEAN identity as a case study and aims to show why a normative identity is more achievable than a practical identity among Southeast Asians, and how Asian values might contribute to the creation of this shared identity.

  20. Invasive lionfish reduce native fish abundance on a regional scale

    OpenAIRE

    Ballew, Nicholas G.; Bacheler, Nathan M.; Kellison, G. Todd; Schueller, Amy M.

    2016-01-01

    Invasive lionfish pose an unprecedented threat to biodiversity and fisheries throughout Atlantic waters off of the southeastern United States, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico. Here, we employ a spatially replicated Before-After-Control-Impact analysis with temporal pairing to quantify for the first time the impact of the lionfish invasion on native fish abundance across a broad regional scale and over the entire duration of the lionfish invasion (1990?2014). Our results suggest that 1) ...

  1. Multi-scaling allometric analysis for urban and regional development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yanguang

    2017-01-01

    The concept of allometric growth is based on scaling relations, and it has been applied to urban and regional analysis for a long time. However, most allometric analyses were devoted to the single proportional relation between two elements of a geographical system. Few researches focus on the allometric scaling of multielements. In this paper, a process of multiscaling allometric analysis is developed for the studies on spatio-temporal evolution of complex systems. By means of linear algebra, general system theory, and by analogy with the analytical hierarchy process, the concepts of allometric growth can be integrated with the ideas from fractal dimension. Thus a new methodology of geo-spatial analysis and the related theoretical models emerge. Based on the least squares regression and matrix operations, a simple algorithm is proposed to solve the multiscaling allometric equation. Applying the analytical method of multielement allometry to Chinese cities and regions yields satisfying results. A conclusion is reached that the multiscaling allometric analysis can be employed to make a comprehensive evaluation for the relative levels of urban and regional development, and explain spatial heterogeneity. The notion of multiscaling allometry may enrich the current theory and methodology of spatial analyses of urban and regional evolution.

  2. Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Welsch, M.

    2015-01-01

    KTH Royal Institute of Technology was founded in 1827 and it is the largest technical university in Sweden with five campuses and Around 15,000 students. KTH-dESA combines an outstanding knowledge in the field of energy systems analysis. This is demonstrated by the successful collaborations with many (UN) organizations. Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa include Assessing renewable energy potentials; Analysing investment strategies; ) Assessing climate resilience; Comparing electrification options; Providing web-based decision support; and Quantifying energy access. It is conclude that Strategies required to ensure a robust and flexible energy system (-> no-regret choices); Capacity investments should be in line with national & regional strategies; Climate change important to consider, as it may strongly influence the energy flows in a region; Long-term models can help identify robust energy investment strategies and pathways that Can help assess future markets and profitability of individual projects

  3. Understanding Mesoscale Land-Atmosphere Interactions in Arctic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, X.; Wang, S.; Nachamkin, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    Land-atmosphere interactions in Arctic region are examined using the U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS©*) with the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM). Initial land surface variables in COAMPS are interpolated from the real-time NASA Land Information System (LIS). The model simulations are configured for three nest grids with 27-9-3 km horizontal resolutions. The simulation period is set for October 2015 with 12-h data assimilation update cycle and 24-h integration length. The results are compared with those simulated without using LSM and evaluated with observations from ONR Sea State R/V Sikuliaq cruise and the North Slope of Alaska (NSA). There are complex soil and vegetation types over the surface for simulation with LSM, compared to without LSM simulation. The results show substantial differences in surface heat fluxes between bulk surface scheme and LSM, which may have an important impact on the sea ice evolution over the Arctic region. Evaluations from station data show surface air temperature and relative humidity have smaller biases for simulation using LSM. Diurnal variation of land surface temperature, which is necessary for physical processes of land-atmosphere, is also better captured than without LSM.

  4. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  5. Mangroves Enhance Reef Fish Abundance at the Caribbean Regional Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serafy, Joseph E; Shideler, Geoffrey S; Araújo, Rafael J; Nagelkerken, Ivan

    2015-01-01

    Several studies conducted at the scale of islands, or small sections of continental coastlines, have suggested that mangrove habitats serve to enhance fish abundances on coral reefs, mainly by providing nursery grounds for several ontogenetically-migrating species. However, evidence of such enhancement at a regional scale has not been reported, and recently, some researchers have questioned the mangrove-reef subsidy effect. In the present study, using two different regression approaches, we pursued two questions related to mangrove-reef connectivity at the Caribbean regional scale: (1) Are reef fish abundances limited by mangrove forest area?; and (2) Are mean reef fish abundances proportional to mangrove forest area after taking human population density and latitude into account? Specifically, we tested for Caribbean-wide mangrove forest area effects on the abundances of 12 reef fishes that have been previously characterized as "mangrove-dependent". Analyzed were data from an ongoing, long-term (20-year) citizen-scientist fish monitoring program; coastal human population censuses; and several wetland forest information sources. Quantile regression results supported the notion that mangrove forest area limits the abundance of eight of the 12 fishes examined. Linear mixed-effects regression results, which considered potential human (fishing and habitat degradation) and latitudinal influences, suggested that average reef fish densities of at least six of the 12 focal fishes were directly proportional to mangrove forest area. Recent work questioning the mangrove-reef fish subsidy effect likely reflects a failure to: (1) focus analyses on species that use mangroves as nurseries, (2) consider more than the mean fish abundance response to mangrove forest extent; and/or (3) quantitatively account for potentially confounding human impacts, such as fishing pressure and habitat degradation. Our study is the first to demonstrate at a large regional scale (i.e., the Wider

  6. Mangroves Enhance Reef Fish Abundance at the Caribbean Regional Scale.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph E Serafy

    Full Text Available Several studies conducted at the scale of islands, or small sections of continental coastlines, have suggested that mangrove habitats serve to enhance fish abundances on coral reefs, mainly by providing nursery grounds for several ontogenetically-migrating species. However, evidence of such enhancement at a regional scale has not been reported, and recently, some researchers have questioned the mangrove-reef subsidy effect. In the present study, using two different regression approaches, we pursued two questions related to mangrove-reef connectivity at the Caribbean regional scale: (1 Are reef fish abundances limited by mangrove forest area?; and (2 Are mean reef fish abundances proportional to mangrove forest area after taking human population density and latitude into account? Specifically, we tested for Caribbean-wide mangrove forest area effects on the abundances of 12 reef fishes that have been previously characterized as "mangrove-dependent". Analyzed were data from an ongoing, long-term (20-year citizen-scientist fish monitoring program; coastal human population censuses; and several wetland forest information sources. Quantile regression results supported the notion that mangrove forest area limits the abundance of eight of the 12 fishes examined. Linear mixed-effects regression results, which considered potential human (fishing and habitat degradation and latitudinal influences, suggested that average reef fish densities of at least six of the 12 focal fishes were directly proportional to mangrove forest area. Recent work questioning the mangrove-reef fish subsidy effect likely reflects a failure to: (1 focus analyses on species that use mangroves as nurseries, (2 consider more than the mean fish abundance response to mangrove forest extent; and/or (3 quantitatively account for potentially confounding human impacts, such as fishing pressure and habitat degradation. Our study is the first to demonstrate at a large regional scale (i

  7. Regional scale analysis of the altimetric stream network evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Ghizzoni

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Floods result from the limited carrying capacity of stream channels when compared to the discharge peak value. The transit of flood waves - with the associated erosion and sedimentation processes - often modifies local stream geometry. In some cases this results in a reduction of the stream carrying capacity, and consequently in an enhancement of the flooding risk. A mathematical model for the prediction of potential altimetric stream network evolution due to erosion and sedimentation processes is here formalized. It works at the regional scale, identifying the tendency of river segments to sedimentation, stability, or erosion. The model builds on geomorphologic concepts, and derives its parameters from extensive surveys. As a case study, tendencies of rivers pertaining to the Valle d'Aosta region are analyzed. Some validation is provided both at regional and local scales of analysis. Local validation is performed both through a mathematical model able to simulate the temporal evolution of the stream profile, and through comparison of the prediction with ante and post-event river surveys, where available. Overall results are strongly encouraging. Possible use of the information derived from the model in the context of flood and landslide hazard mitigation is briefly discussed.

  8. Ripple scalings in geothermal facilities, a key to understand the scaling process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köhl, Bernhard; Grundy, James; Baumann, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    Scalings are a widespread problem among geothermal plants which exploit the Malm Aquifer in the Bavarian Molasse Zone. They effect the technical and economic efficiency of geothermal plants. The majority of the scalings observed at geothermal facilities exploring the Malm aquifer in the Bavarian Molasse Basin are carbonates. They are formed due to a disruption of the lime-carbonic-acid equilibrium during production caused by degassing of CO2. These scalings are found in the production pipes, at the pumps and at filters and can nicely be described using existing hydrogeochemical models. This study proposes a second mechanism for the formation of scalings in ground-level facilities. We investigated scalings which accumulated at the inlet to the heat exchanger. Interestingly, the scalings were recovered after the ground level facilities had been cleaned. The scalings showed distinct ripple structures, which is likely a result of solid particle deposition. From the ripple features the the flow conditions during their formation were calculated based on empirical equations (Soulsby, 2012). The calculations suggest that the deposits were formed during maintenance works. Thin section images of the sediments indicate a two-step process: deposition of sediment grains, followed by stabilization with a calcite layer. The latter likely occured during maintenance. To prevent this type of scalings blocking the heat exchangers, the maintenance procedure has to be revised. References: Soulsby, R. L.; Whitehouse, R. J. S.; Marten, K. V.: Prediction of time-evolving sand ripples in shelf seas. Continental Shelf Research 2012, 38, 47-62

  9. A regional distributed hydrological modelling approach for flash-flood understanding and experimental design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braud, Isabelle; Anquetin, Sandrine; Roux, Hélène; Vannier, Olivier; Maubourguet, Marie-Madeleine; Viallet, Pierre; Boudevillain, Brice; Dartus, Denis; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

    2010-05-01

    Flash floods represent the most destructive natural hazard in the Mediterranean region, causing around one billion Euros worth of damage in France over the last two decades. Flash floods are associated with extreme and rare rainfall events and usually occur in ungauged river basins. Amongst them, small-ungauged catchments are recognized as the most vulnerable to storm driven flash floods. In order to limit the damages to the population, there is a need to improve our understanding and the simulation tools for these events. In order to provide information over a whole region, hydrological models applicable at this scale, and able to take into account the spatial variability of rainfall and catchment characteristics, must be proposed. This paper presents such a regional distributed approach applied to the 8-9 September 2002 extreme event which affected the Gard region in the south-east of France. In order to identify the variables and catchment characteristics which require improved knowledge, two distributed hydrological models were set up on a set of catchments, with sizes ranging from 2.5 to 99 km2. The models differ in terms of spatial discretization and process representation. They were forced using radar data with a 1 km2 spatial resolution and 5 min time step. The model parameters were specified using the available information, namely a digital terrain model and a soil data base. The latter provides information about soil texture, soil porosity and soil depths. Soil hydraulic properties were defined using pedo-transfer functions. Data from a post-flood field survey of maximum peak discharge were used to assess the quality of the simulations. A reasonable agreement between modeled and observed values was obtained. Sensitivity studies were then performed to asses the respective impact of rainfall estimation and soil variability on the simulated discharge. The analysis shows that rainfall remains the first controlling factor of flash flood dynamics and that high

  10. Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M

    2004-03-01

    During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale.

  11. Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M.

    2004-01-01

    During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale

  12. Surface temperature and evapotranspiration: application of local scale methods to regional scales using satellite data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seguin, B.; Courault, D.; Guerif, M.

    1994-01-01

    Remotely sensed surface temperatures have proven useful for monitoring evapotranspiration (ET) rates and crop water use because of their direct relationship with sensible and latent energy exchange processes. Procedures for using the thermal infrared (IR) obtained with hand-held radiometers deployed at ground level are now well established and even routine for many agricultural research and management purposes. The availability of IR from meteorological satellites at scales from 1 km (NOAA-AVHRR) to 5 km (METEOSAT) permits extension of local, ground-based approaches to larger scale crop monitoring programs. Regional observations of surface minus air temperature (i.e., the stress degree day) and remote estimates of daily ET were derived from satellite data over sites in France, the Sahel, and North Africa and summarized here. Results confirm that similar approaches can be applied at local and regional scales despite differences in pixel size and heterogeneity. This article analyzes methods for obtaining these data and outlines the potential utility of satellite data for operational use at the regional scale. (author)

  13. Insight on invasions and resilience derived from spatiotemporal discontinuities of biomass at local and regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Criag R.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the social and ecological consequences of species invasions is complicated by nonlinearities in processes, and differences in process and structure as scale is changed. Here we use discontinuity analyses to investigate nonlinear patterns in the distribution of biomass of an invasive nuisance species that could indicate scale-specific organization. We analyze biomass patterns in the flagellate Gonyostomum semen (Raphidophyta) in 75 boreal lakes during an 11-year period (1997-2007). With simulations using a unimodal null model and cluster analysis, we identified regional groupings of lakes based on their biomass patterns. We evaluated the variability of membership of individual lakes in regional biomass groups. Temporal trends in local and regional discontinuity patterns were analyzed using regressions and correlations with environmental variables that characterize nutrient conditions, acidity status, temperature variability, and water clarity. Regionally, there was a significant increase in the number of biomass groups over time, indicative of an increased number of scales at which algal biomass organizes across lakes. This increased complexity correlated with the invasion history of G. semen and broad-scale environmental change (recovery from acidification). Locally, no consistent patterns of lake membership to regional biomass groups were observed, and correlations with environmental variables were lake specific. The increased complexity of regional biomass patterns suggests that processes that act within or between scales reinforce the presence of G. semen and its potential to develop high-biomass blooms in boreal lakes. Emergent regional patterns combined with locally stochastic dynamics suggest a bleak future for managing G. semen, and more generally why invasive species can be ecologically successful.

  14. Ion-Scale Structure in Mercury's Magnetopause Reconnection Diffusion Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershman, Daniel J.; Dorelli, John C.; DiBraccio, Gina A.; Raines, Jim M.; Slavin, James A.; Poh, Gangkai; Zurbuchen, Thomas H.

    2016-01-01

    The strength and time dependence of the electric field in a magnetopause diffusion region relate to the rate of magnetic reconnection between the solar wind and a planetary magnetic field. Here we use approximately 150 milliseconds measurements of energetic electrons from the Mercury Surface, Space Environment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft observed over Mercury's dayside polar cap boundary (PCB) to infer such small-scale changes in magnetic topology and reconnection rates. We provide the first direct measurement of open magnetic topology in flux transfer events at Mercury, structures thought to account for a significant portion of the open magnetic flux transport throughout the magnetosphere. In addition, variations in PCB latitude likely correspond to intermittent bursts of approximately 0.3 to 3 millivolts per meter reconnection electric fields separated by approximately 5 to10 seconds, resulting in average and peak normalized dayside reconnection rates of approximately 0.02 and approximately 0.2, respectively. These data demonstrate that structure in the magnetopause diffusion region at Mercury occurs at the smallest ion scales relevant to reconnection physics.

  15. Predicting redox conditions in groundwater at a regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Terziotti, Silvia; Abrams, Daniel B.

    2015-01-01

    Defining the oxic-suboxic interface is often critical for determining pathways for nitrate transport in groundwater and to streams at the local scale. Defining this interface on a regional scale is complicated by the spatial variability of reaction rates. The probability of oxic groundwater in the Chesapeake Bay watershed was predicted by relating dissolved O2 concentrations in groundwater samples to indicators of residence time and/or electron donor availability using logistic regression. Variables that describe surficial geology, position in the flow system, and soil drainage were important predictors of oxic water. The probability of encountering oxic groundwater at a 30 m depth and the depth to the bottom of the oxic layer were predicted for the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The influence of depth to the bottom of the oxic layer on stream nitrate concentrations and time lags (i.e., time period between land application of nitrogen and its effect on streams) are illustrated using model simulations for hypothetical basins. Regional maps of the probability of oxic groundwater should prove useful as indicators of groundwater susceptibility and stream susceptibility to contaminant sources derived from groundwater.

  16. Forest fragmentation and bird community dynamics: inference at regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulinier, T.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Flather, C.H.; Pollock, K.H.

    2001-01-01

    With increasing fragmentation of natural areas and a dramatic reduction of forest cover in several parts of the world, quantifying the impact of such changes on species richness and community dynamics has been a subject of much concern. Here, we tested whether in more fragmented landscapes there was a lower number of area-sensitive species and higher local extinction and turnover rates, which could explain higher temporal variability in species richness. To investigate such potential landscape effects at a regional scale, we merged two independent, large-scale monitoring efforts: the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Land Use and Land Cover Classification data from the U.S. Geological Survey. We used methods that accounted for heterogeneity in the probability of detecting species to estimate species richness and temporal changes in the bird communities for BBS routes in three mid-Atlantic U.S. states. Forest breeding bird species were grouped prior to the analyses into area-sensitive and non-area-sensitive species according to previous studies. We tested predictions relating measures of forest structure at one point in time (1974) to species richness at that time and to parameters of forest bird community change over the following 22-yr-period (1975-1996). We used the mean size of forest patches to characterize landscape structure, as high correlations among landscape variables did not allow us to disentangle the relative roles of habitat fragmentation per se and habitat loss. As predicted, together with lower species richness for area-sensitive species on routes surrounded by landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size, we found higher mean year-to-year rates of local extinction. Moreover, the mean year-to-year rates of local turnover (proportion of locally new species) for area-sensitive species were also higher in landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size. These associations were not observed for the non-area-sensitive species group. These

  17. Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

    2014-12-01

    The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (Hdecreasing with scale) - not climate - "that you expect". The conventional framework that treats the background as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain ≈ 15% of the

  18. Spatial data analysis for exploration of regional scale geothermal resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghaddam, Majid Kiavarz; Noorollahi, Younes; Samadzadegan, Farhad; Sharifi, Mohammad Ali; Itoi, Ryuichi

    2013-10-01

    Defining a comprehensive conceptual model of the resources sought is one of the most important steps in geothermal potential mapping. In this study, Fry analysis as a spatial distribution method and 5% well existence, distance distribution, weights of evidence (WofE), and evidential belief function (EBFs) methods as spatial association methods were applied comparatively to known geothermal occurrences, and to publicly-available regional-scale geoscience data in Akita and Iwate provinces within the Tohoku volcanic arc, in northern Japan. Fry analysis and rose diagrams revealed similar directional patterns of geothermal wells and volcanoes, NNW-, NNE-, NE-trending faults, hotsprings and fumaroles. Among the spatial association methods, WofE defined a conceptual model correspondent with the real world situations, approved with the aid of expert opinion. The results of the spatial association analyses quantitatively indicated that the known geothermal occurrences are strongly spatially-associated with geological features such as volcanoes, craters, NNW-, NNE-, NE-direction faults and geochemical features such as hotsprings, hydrothermal alteration zones and fumaroles. Geophysical data contains temperature gradients over 100 °C/km and heat flow over 100 mW/m2. In general, geochemical and geophysical data were better evidence layers than geological data for exploring geothermal resources. The spatial analyses of the case study area suggested that quantitative knowledge from hydrothermal geothermal resources was significantly useful for further exploration and for geothermal potential mapping in the case study region. The results can also be extended to the regions with nearly similar characteristics.

  19. Size Scaling in Western North Atlantic Loggerhead Turtles Permits Extrapolation between Regions, but Not Life Stages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marn, Nina; Klanjscek, Tin; Stokes, Lesley; Jusup, Marko

    2015-01-01

    Sea turtles face threats globally and are protected by national and international laws. Allometry and scaling models greatly aid sea turtle conservation and research, and help to better understand the biology of sea turtles. Scaling, however, may differ between regions and/or life stages. We analyze differences between (i) two different regional subsets and (ii) three different life stage subsets of the western North Atlantic loggerhead turtles by comparing the relative growth of body width and depth in relation to body length, and discuss the implications. Results suggest that the differences between scaling relationships of different regional subsets are negligible, and models fitted on data from one region of the western North Atlantic can safely be used on data for the same life stage from another North Atlantic region. On the other hand, using models fitted on data for one life stage to describe other life stages is not recommended if accuracy is of paramount importance. In particular, young loggerhead turtles that have not recruited to neritic habitats should be studied and modeled separately whenever practical, while neritic juveniles and adults can be modeled together as one group. Even though morphometric scaling varies among life stages, a common model for all life stages can be used as a general description of scaling, and assuming isometric growth as a simplification is justified. In addition to linear models traditionally used for scaling on log-log axes, we test the performance of a saturating (curvilinear) model. The saturating model is statistically preferred in some cases, but the accuracy gained by the saturating model is marginal.

  20. Size Scaling in Western North Atlantic Loggerhead Turtles Permits Extrapolation between Regions, but Not Life Stages.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Marn

    Full Text Available Sea turtles face threats globally and are protected by national and international laws. Allometry and scaling models greatly aid sea turtle conservation and research, and help to better understand the biology of sea turtles. Scaling, however, may differ between regions and/or life stages. We analyze differences between (i two different regional subsets and (ii three different life stage subsets of the western North Atlantic loggerhead turtles by comparing the relative growth of body width and depth in relation to body length, and discuss the implications.Results suggest that the differences between scaling relationships of different regional subsets are negligible, and models fitted on data from one region of the western North Atlantic can safely be used on data for the same life stage from another North Atlantic region. On the other hand, using models fitted on data for one life stage to describe other life stages is not recommended if accuracy is of paramount importance. In particular, young loggerhead turtles that have not recruited to neritic habitats should be studied and modeled separately whenever practical, while neritic juveniles and adults can be modeled together as one group. Even though morphometric scaling varies among life stages, a common model for all life stages can be used as a general description of scaling, and assuming isometric growth as a simplification is justified. In addition to linear models traditionally used for scaling on log-log axes, we test the performance of a saturating (curvilinear model. The saturating model is statistically preferred in some cases, but the accuracy gained by the saturating model is marginal.

  1. Arctic Tundra Greening and Browning at Circumpolar and Regional Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, H. E.; Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Raynolds, M. K.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Remote sensing data have historically been used to assess the dynamics of arctic tundra vegetation. Until recently the scientific literature has largely described the "greening" of the Arctic; from a remote sensing perspective, an increase in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), or a similar satellite-based vegetation index. Vegetation increases have been heterogeneous throughout the Arctic, and were reported to be up to 25% in certain areas over a 30-year timespan. However, more recently, arctic tundra vegetation dynamics have gotten more complex, with observations of more widespread tundra "browning" being reported. We used a combination of remote sensing data, including the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS), as well as higher spatial resolution Landsat data, to evaluate the spatio-temporal patterns of arctic tundra vegetation dynamics (greening and browning) at circumpolar and regional scales over the past 3-4 decades. At the circumpolar scale, we focus on the spatial heterogeneity (by tundra subzone and continent) of tundra browning over the past 5-15 years, followed by a more recent recovery (greening since 2015). Landsat time series allow us to evaluate the landscape-scale heterogeneity of tundra greening and browning for northern Alaska and the Yamal Peninsula in northwestern Siberia, Russia. Multi-dataset analyses reveal that tundra greening and browning (i.e. increases or decreases in the NDVI respectively) are generated by different sets of processes. Tundra greening is largely a result of either climate warming, lengthening of the growing season, or responses to disturbances, such as fires, landslides, and freeze-thaw processes. Browning on the other hand tends to be more event-driven, such as the shorter-term decline in vegetation due to fire, insect defoliation, consumption by larger herbivores, or extreme weather events (e.g. winter warming or early summer frost damage). Browning can also be caused by local or

  2. Earth observation for regional scale environmental and natural resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernknopf, R.; Brookshire, D.; Faulkner, S.; Chivoiu, B.; Bridge, B.; Broadbent, C.

    2013-12-01

    Earth observations (EO) provide critical information to natural resource assessment. Three examples are presented: conserving potable groundwater in intense agricultural regions, maximizing ecosystem service benefits at regional scales from afforestation investment and management, and enabling integrated natural and behavioral sciences for resource management and policy analysis. In each of these cases EO of different resolutions are used in different ways to help in the classification, characterization, and availability of natural resources and ecosystem services. To inform decisions, each example includes a spatiotemporal economic model to optimize the net societal benefits of resource development and exploitation. 1) EO is used for monitoring land use in intensively cultivated agricultural regions. Archival imagery is coupled to a hydrogeological process model to evaluate the tradeoff between agrochemical use and retention of potable groundwater. EO is used to couple individual producers and regional resource managers using information from markets and natural systems to aid in the objective of maximizing agricultural production and maintaining groundwater quality. The contribution of EO is input to a nitrate loading and transport model to estimate the cumulative impact on groundwater at specified distances from specific sites (wells) for 35 Iowa counties and two aquifers. 2) Land use/land cover (LULC) derived from EO is used to compare biological carbon sequestration alternatives and their provisioning of ecosystem services. EO is used to target land attributes that are more or less desirable for enhancing ecosystem services in two parishes in Louisiana. Ecological production functions are coupled with value data to maximize the expected return on investment in carbon sequestration and other ancillary ecosystem services while minimizing the risk. 3) Environmental and natural resources management decisions employ probabilistic estimates of yet-to-find or yet

  3. High-resolution, regional-scale crop yield simulations for the Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stack, D. H.; Kafatos, M.; Medvigy, D.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Prasad, A. K.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.; Asrar, G. R.

    2012-12-01

    Over the past few decades, there have been many process-based crop models developed with the goal of better understanding the impacts of climate, soils, and management decisions on crop yields. These models simulate the growth and development of crops in response to environmental drivers. Traditionally, process-based crop models have been run at the individual farm level for yield optimization and management scenario testing. Few previous studies have used these models over broader geographic regions, largely due to the lack of gridded high-resolution meteorological and soil datasets required as inputs for these data intensive process-based models. In particular, assessment of regional-scale yield variability due to climate change requires high-resolution, regional-scale, climate projections, and such projections have been unavailable until recently. The goal of this study was to create a framework for extending the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop model for use at regional scales and analyze spatial and temporal yield changes in the Southwestern United States (CA, AZ, and NV). Using the scripting language Python, an automated pipeline was developed to link Regional Climate Model (RCM) output with the APSIM crop model, thus creating a one-way nested modeling framework. This framework was used to combine climate, soil, land use, and agricultural management datasets in order to better understand the relationship between climate variability and crop yield at the regional-scale. Three different RCMs were used to drive APSIM: OLAM, RAMS, and WRF. Preliminary results suggest that, depending on the model inputs, there is some variability between simulated RCM driven maize yields and historical yields obtained from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Furthermore, these simulations showed strong non-linear correlations between yield and meteorological drivers, with critical threshold values for some of the inputs (e.g. minimum and

  4. Geographical patterns in cyanobacteria distribution: climate influence at regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitois, Frédéric; Thoraval, Isabelle; Baurès, Estelle; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-01-28

    Cyanobacteria are a component of public health hazards in freshwater environments because of their potential as toxin producers. Eutrophication has long been considered the main cause of cyanobacteria outbreak and proliferation, whereas many studies emphasized the effect of abiotic parameters (mainly temperature and light) on cell growth rate or toxin production. In view of the growing concerns of global change consequences on public health parameters, this study attempts to enlighten climate influence on cyanobacteria at regional scale in Brittany (NW France). The results show that homogeneous cyanobacteria groups are associated with climatic domains related to temperature, global radiation and pluviometry, whereas microcystins (MCs) occurrences are only correlated to local cyanobacteria species composition. As the regional climatic gradient amplitude is similar to the projected climate evolution on a 30-year timespan, a comparison between the present NW and SE situations was used to extrapolate the evolution of geographical cyanobacteria distribution in Brittany. Cyanobacteria composition should shift toward species associated with more frequent Microcystins occurrences along a NW/SE axis whereas lakes situated along a SW/NE axis should transition to species (mainly Nostocales) associated with lower MCs detection frequencies.

  5. Large-Scale Covariability Between Aerosol and Precipitation Over the 7-SEAS Region: Observations and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jingfeng; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee; Zhang, Chidong; Jeong, Myeong Jae; Gautam, Ritesh; Bettenhausen, Corey; Sayer, Andrew M.; Hansell, Richard A.; Liu, Xiaohong; hide

    2012-01-01

    One of the seven scientific areas of interests of the 7-SEAS field campaign is to evaluate the impact of aerosol on cloud and precipitation (http://7-seas.gsfc.nasa.gov). However, large-scale covariability between aerosol, cloud and precipitation is complicated not only by ambient environment and a variety of aerosol effects, but also by effects from rain washout and climate factors. This study characterizes large-scale aerosol-cloud-precipitation covariability through synergy of long-term multi ]sensor satellite observations with model simulations over the 7-SEAS region [10S-30N, 95E-130E]. Results show that climate factors such as ENSO significantly modulate aerosol and precipitation over the region simultaneously. After removal of climate factor effects, aerosol and precipitation are significantly anti-correlated over the southern part of the region, where high aerosols loading is associated with overall reduced total precipitation with intensified rain rates and decreased rain frequency, decreased tropospheric latent heating, suppressed cloud top height and increased outgoing longwave radiation, enhanced clear-sky shortwave TOA flux but reduced all-sky shortwave TOA flux in deep convective regimes; but such covariability becomes less notable over the northern counterpart of the region where low ]level stratus are found. Using CO as a proxy of biomass burning aerosols to minimize the washout effect, large-scale covariability between CO and precipitation was also investigated and similar large-scale covariability observed. Model simulations with NCAR CAM5 were found to show similar effects to observations in the spatio-temporal patterns. Results from both observations and simulations are valuable for improving our understanding of this region's meteorological system and the roles of aerosol within it. Key words: aerosol; precipitation; large-scale covariability; aerosol effects; washout; climate factors; 7- SEAS; CO; CAM5

  6. Environmental determinants of woody plant diversity at a regional scale in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Qian

    Full Text Available Understanding what drives the geographic variation of species richness across the globe is a fundamental goal of ecology and biogeography. Environmental variables have been considered as drivers of global diversity patterns but there is no consensus among ecologists on what environmental variables are primary drivers of the geographic variation of species richness. Here, I examine the relationship of woody plant species richness at a regional scale in China with sixteen environmental variables representing energy availability, water availability, energy-water balance, seasonality, and habitat heterogeneity. I found that temperature seasonality is the best predictor of woody species richness in China. Other important environmental variables include annual precipitation, mean temperature of the coldest month, and potential evapotranspiration. The best model explains 85% of the variation in woody plant species richness at the regional scale in China.

  7. Salinization of aquifers at the regional scale by marine transgression: Time scales and processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armandine Les Landes, A.; Davy, P.; Aquilina, L.

    2014-12-01

    Saline fluids with moderate concentrations have been sampled and reported in the Armorican basement at the regional scale (northwestern France). The horizontal and vertical distributions of high chloride concentrations (60-1400mg/L) at the regional scale support the marine origin and provide constraints on the age of these saline fluids. The current distribution of fresh and "saline" groundwater at depth is the result mostly of processes occurring at geological timescales - seawater intrusion processes followed by fresh groundwater flushing -, and only slightly of recent anthropogenic activities. In this study, we focus on seawater intrusion mechanisms in continental aquifers. We argue that one of the most efficient processes in macrotidal environments is the gravity-driven downconing instability below coastal salinized rivers. 2-D numerical experiments have been used to quantify this process according to four main parameter types: (1) the groundwater system permeability, (2) the salinity degree of the river, (3) the river width and slope, and (4) the tidal amplitude. A general expression of the salinity inflow rates have been derived, which has been used to estimate groundwater salinization rates in Brittany, given the geomorphological and environmental characteristics (drainage basin area, river widths and slopes, tidal range, aquifer permeability). We found that downconing below coastal rivers entail very high saline rates, indicating that this process play a major role in the salinization of regional aquifers. This is also likely to be an issue in the context of climate change, where sea-level rise is expected.

  8. Improvements on mapping soil liquefaction at a regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jing

    Earthquake induced soil liquefaction is an important secondary hazard during earthquakes and can lead to significant damage to infrastructure. Mapping liquefaction hazard is important in both planning for earthquake events and guiding relief efforts by positioning resources once the events have occurred. This dissertation addresses two aspects of liquefaction hazard mapping at a regional scale including 1) predictive liquefaction hazard mapping and 2) post-liquefaction cataloging. First, current predictive hazard liquefaction mapping relies on detailed geologic maps and geotechnical data, which are not always available in at-risk regions. This dissertation improves the predictive liquefaction hazard mapping by the development and validation of geospatial liquefaction models (Chapter 2 and 3) that predict liquefaction extent and are appropriate for global application. The geospatial liquefaction models are developed using logistic regression from a liquefaction database consisting of the data from 27 earthquake events from six countries. The model that performs best over the entire dataset includes peak ground velocity (PGV), VS30, distance to river, distance to coast, and precipitation. The model that performs best over the noncoastal dataset includes PGV, VS30, water table depth, distance to water body, and precipitation. Second, post-earthquake liquefaction cataloging historically relies on field investigation that is often limited by time and expense, and therefore results in limited and incomplete liquefaction inventories. This dissertation improves the post-earthquake cataloging by the development and validation of a remote sensing-based method that can be quickly applied over a broad region after an earthquake and provide a detailed map of liquefaction surface effects (Chapter 4). Our method uses the optical satellite images before and after an earthquake event from the WorldView-2 satellite with 2 m spatial resolution and eight spectral bands. Our method

  9. Spatial connections in regional climate model rainfall outputs at different temporal scales: Application of network theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naufan, Ihsan; Sivakumar, Bellie; Woldemeskel, Fitsum M.; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall has always been a great challenge, and the impacts of climate change further complicate this issue. The present study employs the concepts of complex networks to study the spatial connections in rainfall, with emphasis on climate change and rainfall scaling. Rainfall outputs (during 1961-1990) from a regional climate model (i.e. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that downscaled the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF ERA-40 reanalyses) over Southeast Asia are studied, and data corresponding to eight different temporal scales (6-hr, 12-hr, daily, 2-day, 4-day, weekly, biweekly, and monthly) are analyzed. Two network-based methods are applied to examine the connections in rainfall: clustering coefficient (a measure of the network's local density) and degree distribution (a measure of the network's spread). The influence of rainfall correlation threshold (T) on spatial connections is also investigated by considering seven different threshold levels (ranging from 0.5 to 0.8). The results indicate that: (1) rainfall networks corresponding to much coarser temporal scales exhibit properties similar to that of small-world networks, regardless of the threshold; (2) rainfall networks corresponding to much finer temporal scales may be classified as either small-world networks or scale-free networks, depending upon the threshold; and (3) rainfall spatial connections exhibit a transition phase at intermediate temporal scales, especially at high thresholds. These results suggest that the most appropriate model for studying spatial connections may often be different at different temporal scales, and that a combination of small-world and scale-free network models might be more appropriate for rainfall upscaling/downscaling across all scales, in the strict sense of scale-invariance. The results also suggest that spatial connections in the studied rainfall networks in Southeast Asia are

  10. Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

    2011-12-01

    Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This

  11. Energy transitions in small-scale regions – What we can learn from a regional innovation systems perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mattes, Jannika; Huber, Andreas; Koehrsen, Jens

    2015-01-01

    The prevalent theories in the debate on sustainability transitions have been criticised for not sufficiently addressing energy change processes at the local level. This paper aims to enhance our understanding of local energy reorganisation processes. Drawing on the Regional Innovation Systems (RIS) approach, we argue that local development dynamics result from the interaction of various subsystems: science, politics, public administration, industry, finance, intermediaries and civil society. The analysis of the involved subsystems and their interaction shows how energy transitions are shaped by different individual and organisational actors as well as institutions on the local level. Empirical evidence from case studies on the German cities of Emden and Bottrop illustrates our theoretical conceptualisation of energy transitions. We conclude by presenting characteristic interaction patterns for energy transition drawn from the two cases. - Highlights: • We highlight the importance of spatial and regional aspects for transitions. • We draw upon regional innovation systems’ subsystems to describe energy transitions. • We show how actors and institutions interact in and coordinate transition processes. • We present evidence from two small-scale regions in Germany: Emden and Bottrop

  12. Regional-to-site scale groundwater flow in Romuvaara

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kattilakoski, E.; Koskinen, L. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1999-04-01

    The work describing numerical groundwater flow modelling at the Romuvaara site serves as a background report for the safety assessment TILA-99. The site scale can roughly be taken as the scale of detailed borehole investigations, which have probed the bedrock of Romuvaara over about 2 km{sup 2} large and 1 km deep volume. The site model in this work covers an area of about 12 km{sup 2}. The depth of the model is 2200 m. The site scale flow modelling produced characteristics of the deep groundwater flow and evaluated the impact of a spent fuel repository on the natural groundwater flow conditions. It treated the hydraulic gradient in the intact rock between the repository and the fracture zone nearest to it (about 50 m off) for the block scale model, which describes the groundwater flow on the repository scale. The result quantities were the hydraulic head h (as the base quantity) and its gradient in selected cross sections and fracture zones, the flow rates around the repository, flow paths and discharge areas of the water from the repository. Two repository layouts were discussed. The numerical simulations were performed with the FEFTRA code based on the porous medium concept and the finite element method. The regional model with a no-flow boundary condition at the bottom and on the lateral edges was firstly used to confirm the hydraulic head boundary condition on the lateral edges of an interior site model (having a no-flow boundary condition at the bottom). The groundwater table was used as the hydraulic head boundary condition at the surface of each model. Both the conductivity of the bedrock (modeled with three-dimensional elements) and the transmissivities of the fracture zones (described with two-dimensional elements in the three-dimensional mesh) decreased as a function of the depth. All the results were derived from the site model. The range of variation of the hydraulic gradient immediately outside the repository was studied in the direction of the flow

  13. Invasive lionfish reduce native fish abundance on a regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballew, Nicholas G.; Bacheler, Nathan M.; Kellison, G. Todd; Schueller, Amy M.

    2016-08-01

    Invasive lionfish pose an unprecedented threat to biodiversity and fisheries throughout Atlantic waters off of the southeastern United States, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico. Here, we employ a spatially replicated Before-After-Control-Impact analysis with temporal pairing to quantify for the first time the impact of the lionfish invasion on native fish abundance across a broad regional scale and over the entire duration of the lionfish invasion (1990-2014). Our results suggest that 1) lionfish-impacted areas off of the southeastern United States are most prevalent off-shore near the continental shelf-break but are also common near-shore and 2) in impacted areas, lionfish have reduced tomtate (a native forage fish) abundance by 45% since the invasion began. Tomtate served as a model native fish species in our analysis, and as such, it is likely that the lionfish invasion has had similar impacts on other species, some of which may be of economic importance. Barring the development of a control strategy that reverses the lionfish invasion, the abundance of lionfish in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico will likely remain at or above current levels. Consequently, the effect of lionfish on native fish abundance will likely continue for the foreseeable future.

  14. Long-term regional and sub-regional scale groundwater flow within an irregularly fractured Canadian shield setting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sykes, J.F.; Sudicky, E.A.; Normani, S.D.; McLaren, R.G.; Jensen, M.R.

    2006-01-01

    As part of Ontario Power Generation's Deep Geologic Repository Technology Program (DGRTP), activities have been undertaken to further the understanding of groundwater flow system evolution and dynamics within a Canadian Shield setting. This paper describes a numerical case study in which the evolution and nature of groundwater flow, as relevant to the siting and safety of a hypothetical Deep Geologic Repository (DGR) for used nuclear fuel, is explored within representative regional (∼5734 km 2 ) and sub-regional (∼83 km 2 ) Shield watersheds. The modelling strategy adopted a GIS framework that included a digital elevation model and surface hydrologic features such as rivers, lakes and wetlands. Model boundary conditions were extracted through GIS automation such that the 3-dimensional characteristics of surface relief, surface water features, in addition to, pore fluid salinities and spatially variable permeability fields could be explicitly incorporated. Further flow system detail has been incorporated in sub-regional simulations with the inclusion of an irregular curve-planar Fracture Network Model traceable to site-specific geologic attributes. Interim modelling results reveal that deep-seated regional flow systems do evolve with groundwater divides within the shallow (<300 m) flow system defined by local scale topography, in particular, major rivers and their tributaries. Within the realizations considered groundwater flow at depths of ∼700 m or more was determined to be essentially stagnant and likely diffusion dominated. The role of fracture zone interconnectivity, depth dependent salinity and spatially variable permeability distributions on flow system response to past glacial events is examined. In demonstrating a case for groundwater flow system stability it is evident that predictive modelling approaches that cannot preserve the 3-dimensional complexity of the watershed-scale groundwater flow system may lead to conclusions that are implausible

  15. Displays for promotion of public understanding of geological repository concept and the spatial scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shobu, Nobuhiro; Kashiwazaki, Hiroshi

    2003-05-01

    Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institutes (JNC) has a few thousands of short term visitors to Geological Isolation Basic Research Facility of Tokai works in every year. From the viewpoint of promotion of the visitor's understanding and also smooth communication between researchers and visitors, the explanation of the technical information on geological disposal should be carried out in more easily understandable methods, as well as conventional tour to the engineering-scale test facility (ENTRY). This paper reports on the background information and the appearance of displays, which were installed at ENTRY, to promote public understanding of geological repository concept and the spatial scale. They have been practically used as one of the explanation tools to support visitor's understanding. (author)

  16. Regional-to-site scale groundwater flow in Kivetty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kattilakoski, E. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Meszaros, F. [The Relief Laboratory, Harskut (Hungary)

    1999-04-01

    The work describing numerical groundwater flow modelling at the Kivetty site serves as a background report for the safety assessment TILA-99. The site scale can roughly be taken as the scale of detailed borehole investigations, which have probed the bedrock of Kivetty over about 3 km{sup 2} large and 1 km deep volume. The site model in this work covers an area of about 16 km{sup 2}. The depth of the model is 2000 m. The site scale flow modelling produced characteristics of the deep groundwater flow both under the natural conditions and in the case of a spent fuel repository. The hydraulic gradient in the intact rock between the repository and the fracture zone nearest to it (about 50 m off) was assessed for the block scale model. The result quantities were the hydraulic head h (as the base quantity) and its gradient in selected cross sections and fracture zones, the flow rates around the repository, flow paths and discharge areas of the water from the repository. Two repository layouts were discussed. The numerical simulations were performed with the FEFTRA code based on the porous medium concept and the finite element method. The regional model with a no-flow boundary condition at the bottom and on the lateral edges was firstly used to confirm the hydraulic head boundary condition on the lateral edges of an interior site model (having a no-flow boundary condition at the bottom). The groundwater table was used as the hydraulic head boundary condition at the surface of each model. Both the conductivity of the bedrock (modeled with three-dimensional elements) and the transmissivities of the fracture zones (described with two-dimensional elements in the three-dimensional mesh) decreased as a function of the depth. All the results were derived from the site model. With the exception of the western part of Repository A the outlined repositories are located underneath Kumpuvuori, where the flow has a significant subvertical component. The horizontal component of the deep

  17. Regional-to-site scale groundwater flow in Kivetty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kattilakoski, E.; Meszaros, F.

    1999-04-01

    The work describing numerical groundwater flow modelling at the Kivetty site serves as a background report for the safety assessment TILA-99. The site scale can roughly be taken as the scale of detailed borehole investigations, which have probed the bedrock of Kivetty over about 3 km 2 large and 1 km deep volume. The site model in this work covers an area of about 16 km 2 . The depth of the model is 2000 m. The site scale flow modelling produced characteristics of the deep groundwater flow both under the natural conditions and in the case of a spent fuel repository. The hydraulic gradient in the intact rock between the repository and the fracture zone nearest to it (about 50 m off) was assessed for the block scale model. The result quantities were the hydraulic head h (as the base quantity) and its gradient in selected cross sections and fracture zones, the flow rates around the repository, flow paths and discharge areas of the water from the repository. Two repository layouts were discussed. The numerical simulations were performed with the FEFTRA code based on the porous medium concept and the finite element method. The regional model with a no-flow boundary condition at the bottom and on the lateral edges was firstly used to confirm the hydraulic head boundary condition on the lateral edges of an interior site model (having a no-flow boundary condition at the bottom). The groundwater table was used as the hydraulic head boundary condition at the surface of each model. Both the conductivity of the bedrock (modeled with three-dimensional elements) and the transmissivities of the fracture zones (described with two-dimensional elements in the three-dimensional mesh) decreased as a function of the depth. All the results were derived from the site model. With the exception of the western part of Repository A the outlined repositories are located underneath Kumpuvuori, where the flow has a significant subvertical component. The horizontal component of the deep

  18. Taking the pulse of a continent: Expanding site-based research infrastructure for regional- to continental-scale ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many of the most dramatic and surprising effects of global change on ecological systems will occur across large spatial extents, from regions to continents. Multiple ecosystem types will be impacted across a range of interacting spatial and temporal scales. The ability of ecologists to understand an...

  19. Top-down constraints on disturbance dynamics in the terrestrial carbon cycle: effects at global and regional scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.

    2014-01-01

    Large uncertainties preside over terrestrial carbon flux estimates on a global scale. In particular, the strongly coupled dynamics between net ecosystem productivity and disturbance C losses are poorly constrained. To gain an improved understanding of ecosystem C dynamics from regional to global

  20. What Shapes the Phylogenetic Structure of Anuran Communities in a Seasonal Environment? The Influence of Determinism at Regional Scale to Stochasticity or Antagonistic Forces at Local Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Clarissa de Araújo; Roque, Fabio de Oliveira; Santos, Bráulio A; Ferreira, Vanda Lúcia; Strüssmann, Christine; Tomas, Walfrido Moraes

    2015-01-01

    Ecological communities are structured by both deterministic and stochastic processes. We investigated phylogenetic patterns at regional and local scales to understand the influences of seasonal processes in shaping the structure of anuran communities in the southern Pantanal wetland, Brazil. We assessed the phylogenetic structure at different scales, using the Net Relatedness Index (NRI), the Nearest Taxon Index (NTI), and phylobetadiversity indexes, as well as a permutation test, to evaluate the effect of seasonality. The anuran community was represented by a non-random set of species with a high degree of phylogenetic relatedness at the regional scale. However, at the local scale the phylogenetic structure of the community was weakly related with the seasonality of the system, indicating that oriented stochastic processes (e.g. colonization, extinction and ecological drift) and/or antagonist forces drive the structure of such communities in the southern Pantanal.

  1. Geographical Pattern and Environmental Correlates of Regional-Scale General Flowering in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Numata, Shinya; Yasuda, Masatoshi; Suzuki, Ryo O.; Hosaka, Tetsuro; Noor, Nur Supardi Md.; Fletcher, Christine D.; Hashim, Mazlan

    2013-01-01

    In South-East Asian dipterocarp forests, many trees synchronize their reproduction at the community level, but irregularly, in a phenomenon known as general flowering (GF). Several proximate cues have been proposed as triggers for the synchronization of Southeast Asian GF, but the debate continues, as many studies have not considered geographical variation in climate and flora. We hypothesized that the spatial pattern of GF forests is explained by previously proposed climatic cues if there are common cues for GF among regions. During the study, GF episodes occurred every year, but the spatial occurrence varied considerably from just a few forests to the whole of Peninsular Malaysia. In 2001, 2002 and 2005, minor and major GF occurred widely throughout Peninsular Malaysia (GF2001, GF2002, and GF2005), and the geographical patterns of GF varied between the episodes. In the three regional-scale GF episodes, most major events occurred in regions where prolonged drought (PD) had been recorded prior, and significant associations between GF scores and PD were found in GF2001 and GF2002. However, the frequency of PD was higher than that of GF throughout the peninsula. In contrast, low temperature (LT) was observed during the study period only before GF2002 and GF2005, but there was no clear spatial relationship between GF and LT in the regional-scale episodes. There was also no evidence that last GF condition influenced the magnitude of GF. Thus, our results suggest that PD would be essential to trigger regional-scale GF in the peninsula, but also that PD does not fully explain the spatial and temporal patterns of GF. The coarse relationships between GF and the proposed climatic cues may be due to the geographical variation in proximate cues for GF, and the climatic and floristic geographical variations should be considered to understand the proximate factors of GF. PMID:24260159

  2. NEREUS- Network of European Regions Using Space - an initiative of regions to spread the use and understanding of space technologies across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayazi, Roya

    2013-04-01

    contributed substantially to get an idea about the regional situation and existing activities and player. NEREUS wishes to stimulate regional stakeholder to develop space applications in different domains and take measures to participate in European space programs. In this context the dialogue with end-user, in particular local and regional authorities is in the centre. To enhance the exchange between both and bring space uses in concrete administrative dossiers, NEREUS organizes together with its member regions thematic Workshops (WS), e.g. EGNOS/Galileo uses for maritime/marine purposes during which service provider discussed with harbour authorities and the policy and administrative level. The NEREUS-member region Lombardy region started to explore the opportunities of space uses for agriculture and discussed it with different stakeholder. For 2013 three thematic WS are planned (Maritime purposes, Civil Emergencies, Agriculture) with the NEREUS-network community and other partners. The NEREUS CET (Communication, Education and Training) Working Group, one of five NEREUS Working Groups, is another forum of the network that contributes to the spread of knowledge about space and its opportunities also at a broader societal scale. This group is co-chaired by Martina Hilger from Bremen and Michel Bousquet from Midi/P. Stimulating the up-take of space related studies and careers among young people in Europe is an important part for widening the understanding of space uses at citizen level. Only if Europe has a well educated and highly skilled work force will it be possible to exploit the potential of space uses and get the political support from citizen. The CET Working Group was established in 2009 and has since then been an active forum for discussion and exchange. Communicating and networking space related education at universities and other relevant organisations (if appropriate in cooperation with industry) in the NEREUS regions have been in the centre of the activities and

  3. Understanding the cone scale in Cupressaceae: insights from seed-cone teratology in Glyptostrobus pensilis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dörken, Veit Martin; Rudall, Paula J

    2018-01-01

    Both wild-type and teratological seed cones are described in the monoecious conifer Glyptostrobus pensilis and compared with those of other Cupressaceae sensu lato and other conifers. Some Cupressaceae apparently possess a proliferation of axillary structures in their cone scales. In our interpretation, in Glyptostrobus each bract of both typical and atypical seed cones bears two descending accessory shoots, interpreted here as seed scales (ovuliferous scales). The primary seed scale is fertile and forms the ovules, the second is sterile and forms characteristic tooth-like structures. The bract and the two axillary seed scales are each supplied with a single distinct vascular bundle that enters the cone axis as a separate strand; this vasculature also characterises the descending accessory short shoots in the vegetative parts of the crown. In wild-type seed cones, the fertile seed scale is reduced to its ovules, and the ovules are always axillary. In contrast, the ovules of some of the teratological seed cones examined were located at the centre of the cone scale. An additional tissue found on the upper surface of the sterile lower seed scale is here interpreted as the axis of the fertile seed scale. Thus, the central position of the ovules can be explained by recaulescent fusion of the upper fertile and lower sterile seed scales. In several teratological cone scales, the ovules were enveloped by an additional sterile tissue that is uniseriate and represents an epidermal outgrowth of the fertile seed scale. Close to the ovules, the epidermis was detached from lower tissue and surrounded the ovule completely, except at the micropyle. These teratological features are potentially significant in understanding seed-cone homologies among extant conifers.

  4. Understanding the cone scale in Cupressaceae: insights from seed-cone teratology in Glyptostrobus pensilis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veit Martin Dörken

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Both wild-type and teratological seed cones are described in the monoecious conifer Glyptostrobus pensilis and compared with those of other Cupressaceae sensu lato and other conifers. Some Cupressaceae apparently possess a proliferation of axillary structures in their cone scales. In our interpretation, in Glyptostrobus each bract of both typical and atypical seed cones bears two descending accessory shoots, interpreted here as seed scales (ovuliferous scales. The primary seed scale is fertile and forms the ovules, the second is sterile and forms characteristic tooth-like structures. The bract and the two axillary seed scales are each supplied with a single distinct vascular bundle that enters the cone axis as a separate strand; this vasculature also characterises the descending accessory short shoots in the vegetative parts of the crown. In wild-type seed cones, the fertile seed scale is reduced to its ovules, and the ovules are always axillary. In contrast, the ovules of some of the teratological seed cones examined were located at the centre of the cone scale. An additional tissue found on the upper surface of the sterile lower seed scale is here interpreted as the axis of the fertile seed scale. Thus, the central position of the ovules can be explained by recaulescent fusion of the upper fertile and lower sterile seed scales. In several teratological cone scales, the ovules were enveloped by an additional sterile tissue that is uniseriate and represents an epidermal outgrowth of the fertile seed scale. Close to the ovules, the epidermis was detached from lower tissue and surrounded the ovule completely, except at the micropyle. These teratological features are potentially significant in understanding seed-cone homologies among extant conifers.

  5. Scaling-up watershed discharge and sediment concentrations to regional scale: The Blue Nile Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenhuis, T. S.; Tilahun, S. A.; MacAlister, C.; Ayana, E. K.; Tebebu, T. Y.; Bayabil, H. K.; Zegeye, A. D.; Worqlul, A. W.

    2012-12-01

    Since Hewlet and Hibbert's publication there is recognition that saturated excess overland land flow is one of the main runoff mechanisms in vegetated watersheds. Predicting discharge in these watersheds can be accomplished by use of simplified models where the landscape features are grouped in potentially runoff contributing zones and permeable hillsides where the water infiltrates (and become the source of interflow and base flow). In this way each watershed can be described with nine parameters: fractional area and available water content for each of the three zones and three parameters describing subsurface flow. The information parameter values can be derived directly from the outflow hydrograph. We show that this model performs well for discharge and sediment concentration (with three additional parameters) on a 1 to 10 day time scale in the Blue Nile Basin for watersheds ranging in in size from 100 ha to 170,000 km2. Thus scaling up from watershed to regional scale can be accomplished with nine parameters for the hydrology and three additional parameters for sediment concentrations. Our hypothesis, that the model works so well, is that after the watershed wets up it drains to a characteristic moisture content distribution that is invariant in time. Wetting up is similar each time and is as a function of effective rainfall. This gives rise to a unique relationship between total storm runoff and total precipitation and surprisingly can be described by a modified form of the well-known SCS runoff equation. This approach has a direct parallel with Darcy's law in that although the average flow over several pores is described well, flow in individual pores cannot predicted. In our case the discharge can be simulated by averaging over the different runoff source area and permeable hillside in the watersheds, but processes within the zones cannot be described. This is not to say that information within the various zones cannot be simulated, but will require detailed

  6. Copy of Using Emulation and Simulation to Understand the Large-Scale Behavior of the Internet.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adalsteinsson, Helgi; Armstrong, Robert C.; Chiang, Ken; Gentile, Ann C.; Lloyd, Levi; Minnich, Ronald G.; Vanderveen, Keith; Van Randwyk, Jamie A; Rudish, Don W.

    2008-10-01

    We report on the work done in the late-start LDRDUsing Emulation and Simulation toUnderstand the Large-Scale Behavior of the Internet. We describe the creation of a researchplatform that emulates many thousands of machines to be used for the study of large-scale inter-net behavior. We describe a proof-of-concept simple attack we performed in this environment.We describe the successful capture of a Storm bot and, from the study of the bot and furtherliterature search, establish large-scale aspects we seek to understand via emulation of Storm onour research platform in possible follow-on work. Finally, we discuss possible future work.3

  7. Rio Grande Basin and the modern world: Understanding scale and context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph A. Tainter

    1999-01-01

    Environmental problems are social issues, embedded in economic and political contexts at the local, regional, national, and global levels. Placing environmental issues on the scale from local to global clarifies conflicts between the level at which problems originate and the level at which they must be addressed. Local issues today often originate in sources distant in...

  8. Understanding the Patterns and Drivers of Air Pollution on Multiple Time Scales: The Case of Northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yupeng; Wu, Jianguo; Yu, Deyong; Hao, Ruifang

    2018-06-01

    China's rapid economic growth during the past three decades has resulted in a number of environmental problems, including the deterioration of air quality. It is necessary to better understand how the spatial pattern of air pollutants varies with time scales and what drive these changes. To address these questions, this study focused on one of the most heavily air-polluted areas in North China. We first quantified the spatial pattern of air pollution, and then systematically examined the relationships of air pollution to several socioeconomic and climatic factors using the constraint line method, correlation analysis, and stepwise regression on decadal, annual, and seasonal scales. Our results indicate that PM2.5 was the dominant air pollutant in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while PM2.5 and PM10 were both important pollutants in the Agro-pastoral Transitional Zone (APTZ) region. Our statistical analyses suggest that energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) in the industry were the most important factors for air pollution on the decadal scale, but the impacts of climatic factors could also be significant. On the annual and seasonal scales, high wind speed, low relative humidity, and long sunshine duration constrained PM2.5 accumulation; low wind speed and high relative humidity constrained PM10 accumulation; and short sunshine duration and high wind speed constrained O3 accumulation. Our study showed that analyses on multiple temporal scales are not only necessary to determine key drivers of air pollution, but also insightful for understanding the spatial patterns of air pollution, which was important for urban planning and air pollution control.

  9. Wind and Photovoltaic Large-Scale Regional Models for hourly production evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinelli, Mattia; Maule, Petr; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2015-01-01

    This work presents two large-scale regional models used for the evaluation of normalized power output from wind turbines and photovoltaic power plants on a European regional scale. The models give an estimate of renewable production on a regional scale with 1 h resolution, starting from a mesosca...... of the transmission system, especially regarding the cross-border power flows. The tuning of these regional models is done using historical meteorological data acquired on a per-country basis and using publicly available data of installed capacity.......This work presents two large-scale regional models used for the evaluation of normalized power output from wind turbines and photovoltaic power plants on a European regional scale. The models give an estimate of renewable production on a regional scale with 1 h resolution, starting from a mesoscale...

  10. Understanding relationships among ecosystem services across spatial scales and over time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Booth, Eric G.; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C.; Kucharik, Christopher J.; Loheide, Steven P., II; Turner, Monica G.

    2018-05-01

    Sustaining ecosystem services (ES), mitigating their tradeoffs and avoiding unfavorable future trajectories are pressing social-environmental challenges that require enhanced understanding of their relationships across scales. Current knowledge of ES relationships is often constrained to one spatial scale or one snapshot in time. In this research, we integrated biophysical modeling with future scenarios to examine changes in relationships among eight ES indicators from 2001–2070 across three spatial scales—grid cell, subwatershed, and watershed. We focused on the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin) in the Midwestern United States—an exemplar for many urbanizing agricultural landscapes. Relationships among ES indicators changed over time; some relationships exhibited high interannual variations (e.g. drainage vs. food production, nitrate leaching vs. net ecosystem exchange) and even reversed signs over time (e.g. perennial grass production vs. phosphorus yield). Robust patterns were detected for relationships among some regulating services (e.g. soil retention vs. water quality) across three spatial scales, but other relationships lacked simple scaling rules. This was especially true for relationships of food production vs. water quality, and drainage vs. number of days with runoff >10 mm, which differed substantially across spatial scales. Our results also showed that local tradeoffs between food production and water quality do not necessarily scale up, so reducing local tradeoffs may be insufficient to mitigate such tradeoffs at the watershed scale. We further synthesized these cross-scale patterns into a typology of factors that could drive changes in ES relationships across scales: (1) effects of biophysical connections, (2) effects of dominant drivers, (3) combined effects of biophysical linkages and dominant drivers, and (4) artificial scale effects, and concluded with management implications. Our study highlights the importance of taking a dynamic

  11. Effects of land use on lake nutrients: The importance of scale, hydrologic connectivity, and region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soranno, Patricia A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Wagner, Tyler; Webster, Katherine E.; Bremigan, Mary Tate

    2015-01-01

    Catchment land uses, particularly agriculture and urban uses, have long been recognized as major drivers of nutrient concentrations in surface waters. However, few simple models have been developed that relate the amount of catchment land use to downstream freshwater nutrients. Nor are existing models applicable to large numbers of freshwaters across broad spatial extents such as regions or continents. This research aims to increase model performance by exploring three factors that affect the relationship between land use and downstream nutrients in freshwater: the spatial extent for measuring land use, hydrologic connectivity, and the regional differences in both the amount of nutrients and effects of land use on them. We quantified the effects of these three factors that relate land use to lake total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) in 346 north temperate lakes in 7 regions in Michigan, USA. We used a linear mixed modeling framework to examine the importance of spatial extent, lake hydrologic class, and region on models with individual lake nutrients as the response variable, and individual land use types as the predictor variables. Our modeling approach was chosen to avoid problems of multi-collinearity among predictor variables and a lack of independence of lakes within regions, both of which are common problems in broad-scale analyses of freshwaters. We found that all three factors influence land use-lake nutrient relationships. The strongest evidence was for the effect of lake hydrologic connectivity, followed by region, and finally, the spatial extent of land use measurements. Incorporating these three factors into relatively simple models of land use effects on lake nutrients should help to improve predictions and understanding of land use-lake nutrient interactions at broad scales.

  12. Scaling disturbance instead of richness to better understand anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen J Mayor

    Full Text Available A primary impediment to understanding how species diversity and anthropogenic disturbance are related is that both diversity and disturbance can depend on the scales at which they are sampled. While the scale dependence of diversity estimation has received substantial attention, the scale dependence of disturbance estimation has been essentially overlooked. Here, we break from conventional examination of the diversity-disturbance relationship by holding the area over which species richness is estimated constant and instead manipulating the area over which human disturbance is measured. In the boreal forest ecoregion of Alberta, Canada, we test the dependence of species richness on disturbance scale, the scale-dependence of the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, and the consistency of these patterns in native versus exotic species and among human disturbance types. We related field observed species richness in 1 ha surveys of 372 boreal vascular plant communities to remotely sensed measures of human disturbance extent at two survey scales: local (1 ha and landscape (18 km2. Supporting the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, species richness-disturbance relationships were quadratic at both local and landscape scales of disturbance measurement. This suggests the shape of richness-disturbance relationships is independent of the scale at which disturbance is assessed, despite that local diversity is influenced by disturbance at different scales by different mechanisms, such as direct removal of individuals (local or indirect alteration of propagule supply (landscape. By contrast, predictions of species richness did depend on scale of disturbance measurement: with high local disturbance richness was double that under high landscape disturbance.

  13. Wintertime westward-traveling planetary-scale perturbations over the Euro-Atlantic region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doblas-Reyes, F.J. [Centro de Astrobiologia, INTA, Madrid (Spain); Pastor, M.A.; Casado, M.J. [Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain); Deque, M. [CNRM, Meteo-France, Toulouse (France)

    2001-07-01

    The features of the wintertime westward-traveling planetary scale perturbations over the Euro-Atlantic region are examined through the use of space-time spectral analysis applied to the 500 hPa geopotential height field. The intention is to understand the nature of these phenomena and the performance of climate models. Data from both ECMWF re-analyses and a simulation from the ARPEGE general circulation model are used. Westward-traveling planetary scale transients are found over the region as local perturbations resembling Rossby normal modes, with a maximum power over the Eastern Atlantic. The westward-traveling planetary scale transients north of 40 {sup circle} N have periods larger than 20 days. South of this latitude, wave periods are shifted to a band around 10 days, so that they can be related to subtropical transient waves. The atmospheric model used, like other models which exhibit reasonable mean climatic properties, tend to have less overall intraseasonal variability than observed. Nevertheless, the model is able to capture most of the features of the westward-traveling low-frequency transients. The differences in basic state, partially produced by scale interactions, would lead to the generation of westward-traveling waves in the model distinct from the observed. However, it is suggested that the improvement of the present model version with regard to previous model versions is due to a better simulation of the time-mean state. The reasonable simulation of the synoptic-scale variability south of 50 {sup circle} N, and thus of its barotropic forcing on the basic state, may also help to explain the realistic westward-traveling transients in the model. (orig.)

  14. Hydrologic connectivity and the contribution of stream headwaters to ecological integrity at regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Mary C.; Pringle, C.M.; Jackson, C.R.

    2007-01-01

    Cumulatively, headwater streams contribute to maintaining hydrologic connectivity and ecosystem integrity at regional scales. Hydrologic connectivity is the water-mediated transport of matter, energy and organisms within or between elements of the hydrologic cycle. Headwater streams compose over two-thirds of total stream length in a typical river drainage and directly connect the upland and riparian landscape to the rest of the stream ecosystem. Altering headwater streams, e.g., by channelization, diversion through pipes, impoundment and burial, modifies fluxes between uplands and downstream river segments and eliminates distinctive habitats. The large-scale ecological effects of altering headwaters are amplified by land uses that alter runoff and nutrient loads to streams, and by widespread dam construction on larger rivers (which frequently leaves free-flowing upstream portions of river systems essential to sustaining aquatic biodiversity). We discuss three examples of large-scale consequences of cumulative headwater alteration. Downstream eutrophication and coastal hypoxia result, in part, from agricultural practices that alter headwaters and wetlands while increasing nutrient runoff. Extensive headwater alteration is also expected to lower secondary productivity of river systems by reducing stream-system length and trophic subsidies to downstream river segments, affecting aquatic communities and terrestrial wildlife that utilize aquatic resources. Reduced viability of freshwater biota may occur with cumulative headwater alteration, including for species that occupy a range of stream sizes but for which headwater streams diversify the network of interconnected populations or enhance survival for particular life stages. Developing a more predictive understanding of ecological patterns that may emerge on regional scales as a result of headwater alterations will require studies focused on components and pathways that connect headwaters to river, coastal and

  15. Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    People living in Africa and South Asia's semi-arid regions face challenges that hinder their economic growth and development. This project seeks to find proactive, longer-term approaches to climate change adaptation in these vulnerable regions, while helping locals manage existing risks. Short-term focus must shift. So far ...

  16. Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Kirchengast, G.

    2018-06-01

    Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards in a warming climate have motivated studies to link precipitation intensities to temperature. Increases exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate of 6-7%/°C-1 are seen in short-duration, convective, high-percentile rainfall at mid latitudes, but the rates of change cease or revert at regionally variable threshold temperatures due to moisture limitations. It is unclear, however, what these findings mean in term of the actual risk of extreme precipitation on a regional to local scale. When conditioning precipitation intensities on local temperatures, key influences on the scaling relationship such as from the annual cycle and regional weather patterns need better understanding. Here we analyze these influences, using sub-hourly to daily precipitation data from a dense network of 189 stations in south-eastern Austria. We find that the temperature sensitivities in the mountainous western region are lower than in the eastern lowlands. This is due to the different weather patterns that cause extreme precipitation in these regions. Sub-hourly and hourly intensities intensify at super-CC and CC-rates, respectively, up to temperatures of about 17 °C. However, we also find that, because of the regional and seasonal variability of the precipitation intensities, a smaller scaling factor can imply a larger absolute change in intensity. Our insights underline that temperature precipitation scaling requires careful interpretation of the intent and setting of the study. When this is considered, conditional scaling factors can help to better understand which influences control the intensification of rainfall with temperature on a regional scale.

  17. LANDIS PRO: a landscape model that predicts forest composition and structure changes at regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Jacob S. Fraser; Frank R. Thompson; Stephen R. Shifley; Martin A. Spetich

    2014-01-01

    LANDIS PRO predicts forest composition and structure changes incorporating species-, stand-, and landscape-scales processes at regional scales. Species-scale processes include tree growth, establishment, and mortality. Stand-scale processes contain density- and size-related resource competition that regulates self-thinning and seedling establishment. Landscapescale...

  18. Land surface evapotranspiration modelling at the regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffelli, Giulia; Ferraris, Stefano; Canone, Davide; Previati, Maurizio; Gisolo, Davide; Provenzale, Antonello

    2017-04-01

    Climate change has relevant implications for the environment, water resources and human life in general. The observed increment of mean air temperature, in addition to a more frequent occurrence of extreme events such as droughts, may have a severe effect on the hydrological cycle. Besides climate change, land use changes are assumed to be another relevant component of global change in terms of impacts on terrestrial ecosystems: socio-economic changes have led to conversions between meadows and pastures and in most cases to a complete abandonment of grasslands. Water is subject to different physical processes among which evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most significant. In fact, ET plays a key role in estimating crop growth, water demand and irrigation water management, so estimating values of ET can be crucial for water resource planning, irrigation requirement and agricultural production. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the amount of evaporation that occurs when a sufficient water source is available. It can be estimated just knowing temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) and solar radiation. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is instead the real quantity of water which is consumed by soil and vegetation; it is obtained as a fraction of PET. The aim of this work was to apply a simplified hydrological model to calculate AET for the province of Turin (Italy) in order to assess the water content and estimate the groundwater recharge at a regional scale. The soil is seen as a bucket (FAO56 model, Allen et al., 1998) made of different layers, which interact with water and vegetation. The water balance is given by precipitations (both rain and snow) and dew as positive inputs, while AET, runoff and drainage represent the rate of water escaping from soil. The difference between inputs and outputs is the water stock. Model data inputs are: soil characteristics (percentage of clay, silt, sand, rocks and organic matter); soil depth; the wilting point (i.e. the

  19. Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Stenni

    2017-11-01

    Antarctic Peninsula regions, and these trends are robust across the distribution of records that contribute to the unweighted isotopic composites and also significant in the weighted temperature reconstructions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of natural variability over the last 2000 years. However, projected warming of the Antarctic continent during the 21st century may soon see significant and unusual warming develop across other parts of the Antarctic continent. The extended Antarctica2k ice core isotope database developed by this working group opens up many avenues for developing a deeper understanding of the response of Antarctic climate to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. The first long-term quantification of regional climate in Antarctica presented herein is a basis for data–model comparison and assessments of past, present and future driving factors of Antarctic climate.

  20. Introducing Subrid-scale Cloud Feedbacks to Radiation for Regional Meteorological and Cllimate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convection systems and associated cloudiness directly influence regional and local radiation budgets, and dynamics and thermodynamics through feedbacks. However, most subgrid-scale convective parameterizations in regional weather and climate models do not consider cumulus cloud ...

  1. Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A. B. A.

    2017-07-01

    One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.

  2. An approach for classification of hydrogeological systems at the regional scale based on groundwater hydrographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haaf, Ezra; Barthel, Roland

    2016-04-01

    When assessing hydrogeological conditions at the regional scale, the analyst is often confronted with uncertainty of structures, inputs and processes while having to base inference on scarce and patchy data. Haaf and Barthel (2015) proposed a concept for handling this predicament by developing a groundwater systems classification framework, where information is transferred from similar, but well-explored and better understood to poorly described systems. The concept is based on the central hypothesis that similar systems react similarly to the same inputs and vice versa. It is conceptually related to PUB (Prediction in ungauged basins) where organization of systems and processes by quantitative methods is intended and used to improve understanding and prediction. Furthermore, using the framework it is expected that regional conceptual and numerical models can be checked or enriched by ensemble generated data from neighborhood-based estimators. In a first step, groundwater hydrographs from a large dataset in Southern Germany are compared in an effort to identify structural similarity in groundwater dynamics. A number of approaches to group hydrographs, mostly based on a similarity measure - which have previously only been used in local-scale studies, can be found in the literature. These are tested alongside different global feature extraction techniques. The resulting classifications are then compared to a visual "expert assessment"-based classification which serves as a reference. A ranking of the classification methods is carried out and differences shown. Selected groups from the classifications are related to geological descriptors. Here we present the most promising results from a comparison of classifications based on series correlation, different series distances and series features, such as the coefficients of the discrete Fourier transform and the intrinsic mode functions of empirical mode decomposition. Additionally, we show examples of classes

  3. Correspondence of biological condition models of California streams at statewide and regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Jason T.; Brown, Larry R.; Rehn, Andrew C.; Waite, Ian R.; Ode, Peter R; Mazor, Raphael D; Schiff, Kenneth C

    2015-01-01

    We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model stream biological condition as measured by benthic macroinvertebrate taxonomic completeness, the ratio of observed to expected (O/E) taxa. Models were developed with and without exclusion of rare taxa at a site. BRT models are robust, requiring few assumptions compared with traditional modeling techniques such as multiple linear regression. The BRT models were constructed to provide baseline support to stressor delineation by identifying natural physiographic and human land use gradients affecting stream biological condition statewide and for eight ecological regions within the state, as part of the development of numerical biological objectives for California’s wadeable streams. Regions were defined on the basis of ecological, hydrologic, and jurisdictional factors and roughly corresponded with ecoregions. Physiographic and land use variables were derived from geographic information system coverages. The model for the entire state (n = 1,386) identified a composite measure of anthropogenic disturbance (the sum of urban, agricultural, and unmanaged roadside vegetation land cover) within the local watershed as the most important variable, explaining 56 % of the variance in O/E values. Models for individual regions explained between 51 and 84 % of the variance in O/E values. Measures of human disturbance were important in the three coastal regions. In the South Coast and Coastal Chaparral, local watershed measures of urbanization were the most important variables related to biological condition, while in the North Coast the composite measure of human disturbance at the watershed scale was most important. In the two mountain regions, natural gradients were most important, including slope, precipitation, and temperature. The remaining three regions had relatively small sample sizes (n ≤ 75 sites) and had models that gave mixed results. Understanding the spatial scale at which land use and land cover affect

  4. Hybridized Kibble-Zurek scaling in the driven critical dynamics across an overlapping critical region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Liang-Jun; Wang, Huai-Yu; Yin, Shuai

    2018-04-01

    The conventional Kibble-Zurek scaling describes the scaling behavior in the driven dynamics across a single critical region. In this paper, we study the driven dynamics across an overlapping critical region, in which a critical region (Region A) is overlaid by another critical region (Region B). We develop a hybridized Kibble-Zurek scaling (HKZS) to characterize the scaling behavior in the driven process. According to the HKZS, the driven dynamics in the overlapping region can be described by the critical theories for both Region A and Region B simultaneously. This results in a constraint on the scaling function in the overlapping critical region. We take the quantum Ising chain in an imaginary longitudinal field as an example. In this model, the critical region of the Yang-Lee edge singularity and the critical region of the ferromagnetic-paramagnetic phase transition overlap with each other. We numerically confirm the HKZS by simulating the driven dynamics in this overlapping critical region. The HKZSs in other models are also discussed.

  5. Scenarios of Earth system change in western Canada: Conceptual understanding and process insights from the Changing Cold Regions Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Stewart, R. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Baltzer, J. L.; Pietroniro, A.; Marsh, P.; Carey, S.; Howard, A.; Barr, A.; Elshamy, M.

    2017-12-01

    The interior of western Canada has been experiencing rapid, widespread, and severe hydroclimatic change in recent decades, and this is projected to continue in the future. To better assess future hydrological, cryospheric and ecological states and fluxes under future climates, a regional hydroclimate project was formed under the auspices of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project of the World Climate Research Programme; the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN; www.ccrnetwork.ca) aims to understand, diagnose, and predict interactions among the changing Earth system components at multiple spatial scales over the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River basins of western Canada. A particular challenge is in applying land surface and hydrological models under future climates, as system changes and cold regions process interactions are not often straightforward, and model structures and parameterizations based on historical observations and understanding of contemporary system functioning may not adequately capture these complexities. To address this and provide guidance and direction to the modelling community, CCRN has drawn insights from a multi-disciplinary perspective on the process controls and system trajectories to develop a set of feasible scenarios of change for the 21st century across the region. This presentation will describe CCRN's efforts towards formalizing these insights and applying them in a large-scale modelling context. This will address what are seen as the most critical processes and key drivers affecting hydrological, cryospheric and ecological change, how these will most likely evolve in the coming decades, and how these are parameterized and incorporated as future scenarios for terrestrial ecology, hydrological functioning, permafrost state, glaciers, agriculture, and water management.

  6. Understanding the Functionality of Human Activity Hotspots from Their Scaling Pattern Using Trajectory Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Jia

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Human activity hotspots are the clusters of activity locations in space and time, and a better understanding of their functionality would be useful for urban land use planning and transportation. In this article, using trajectory data, we aim to infer the functionality of human activity hotspots from their scaling pattern in a reliable way. Specifically, a large number of stopping locations are extracted from trajectory data, which are then aggregated into activity hotspots. Activity hotspots are found to display scaling patterns in terms of the sublinear scaling relationships between the number of stopping locations and the number of points of interest (POIs, which indicates economies of scale of human interactions with urban land use. Importantly, this scaling pattern remains stable over time. This finding inspires us to devise an allometric ruler to identify the activity hotspots, whose functionality could be reliably estimated using the stopping locations. Thereafter, a novel Bayesian inference model is proposed to infer their urban functionality, which examines the spatial and temporal information of stopping locations covering 75 days. Experimental results suggest that the functionality of identified activity hotspots are reliably inferred by stopping locations, such as the railway station.

  7. Modelling cloud effects on ozone on a regional scale : A case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matthijsen, J.; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Meijer, E.W.; Boersen, G.

    1997-01-01

    We have investigated the influence of clouds on ozone on a regional scale (Europe) with a regional scale photochemical dispersion model (LOTOS). The LOTOS-model calculates ozone and other photo-oxidant concentrations in the lowest three km of the troposphere, using actual meteorologic data and

  8. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

  9. Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

    OpenAIRE

    Stenke A.; Hoyle C. R.; Luo B.; Rozanov E.; Groebner J.; Maag L.; Broennimann S.; Peter T.

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on Earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a...

  10. Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from cropland at the regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabrielle Benoît

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Arable soils are a large source of nitrous oxide (N2O emissions, making up half of the biogenic emissions worldwide. Estimating their source strength requires methods capable of capturing the spatial and temporal variability of N2O emissions, along with the effects of crop management. Here, we applied a process-based model, CERES, with geo-referenced input data on soils, weather, and land use to map N2O emissions from wheat-cropped soils in three agriculturally intensive regions in France. Emissions were mostly controlled by soil type and local climate conditions, and only to a minor extent by the doses of fertilizer nitrogen applied. As a result, the direct emission factors calculated at the regional level were much smaller (ranging from 0.0007 to 0.0033 kg N2O-N kg–1 N than the value of 0.0125 kg N2O-N kg–1 N currently recommended in the IPCC Tier 1 methodology. Regional emissions were far more sensitive to the soil microbiological parameter s governing denitrification and its fraction evolved as N2O, soil bulk density, and soil initial inorganic N content. Mitigation measures should therefore target a reduction in the amount of soil inorganic N upon sowing of winter crops, and a decrease of the soil N2O production potential itself. From a general perspective, taking into account the spatial variability of soils and climate thereby appears necessary to improve the accuracy of national inventories, and to tailor mitigation strategies to regional characteristics. The methodology and results presented here may easily be transferred to winter oilseed rape, whose has growing cycle and fertilser requirements are similar.

  11. Water Resources Implications of Cellulosic Biofuel Production at a Regional Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher, S. F.; Schoenholtz, S. H.; Nettles, J. E.

    2011-12-01

    Recent increases in oil prices, a strong national interest in greater energy independence, and a concern for the role of fossil fuels in global climate change, have led to a dramatic expansion in use of alternative renewable energy sources in the U.S. The U.S. government has mandated production of 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2022, of which 16 billion gallons are required to be cellulosic biofuels. Production of cellulosic biomass offers a promising alternative to corn-based systems because large-scale production of corn-based ethanol often requires irrigation and is associated with increased erosion, excess sediment export, and enhanced leaching of nitrogen and phosphorus. Although cultivation of switchgrass using standard agricultural practices is one option being considered for production of cellulosic biomass, intercropping cellulosic biofuel crops within managed forests could provide feedstock without primary land use change or the water quality impacts associated with annual crops. Catchlight Energy LLC is examining the feasibility and sustainability of intercropping switchgrass in loblolly pine plantations in the southeastern U.S. Ongoing research is determining efficient operational techniques and information needed to evaluate effects of these practices on water resources in small watershed-scale (~25 ha) studies. Three sets of four to five sub-watersheds are fully instrumented and currently collecting calibration data in North Carolina, Alabama, and Mississippi. These watershed studies will provide detailed information to understand processes and guide management decisions. However, environmental implications of cellulosic systems need to be examined at a regional scale. We used the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physically-based hydrologic model, to examine water quantity effects of various land use change scenarios ranging from switchgrass intercropping a small percentage of managed pine forest land to conversion of all managed

  12. Regional prediction of basin-scale brown trout habitat suitability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ceola

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study we propose a novel method for the estimation of ecological indices describing the habitat suitability of brown trout (Salmo trutta. Traditional hydrological tools are coupled with an innovative regional geostatistical technique, aiming at the prediction of the brown trout habitat suitability index where partial or totally ungauged conditions occur. Several methods for the assessment of ecological indices are already proposed in the scientific literature, but the possibility of exploiting a geostatistical prediction model, such as Topological Kriging, has never been investigated before. In order to develop a regional habitat suitability model we use the habitat suitability curve, obtained from measured data of brown trout adult individuals collected in several river basins across the USA. The Top-kriging prediction model is then employed to assess the spatial correlation between upstream and downstream habitat suitability indices. The study area is the Metauro River basin, located in the central part of Italy (Marche region, for which both water depth and streamflow data were collected. The present analysis focuses on discharge values corresponding to the 0.1-, 0.5-, 0.9-empirical quantiles derived from flow-duration curves available for seven gauging stations located within the study area, for which three different suitability indices (i.e. ψ10, ψ50 and ψ90 are evaluated. The results of this preliminary analysis are encouraging showing Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies equal to 0.52, 0.65, and 0.69, respectively.

  13. Regional prediction of basin-scale brown trout habitat suitability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceola, S.; Pugliese, A.

    2014-09-01

    In this study we propose a novel method for the estimation of ecological indices describing the habitat suitability of brown trout (Salmo trutta). Traditional hydrological tools are coupled with an innovative regional geostatistical technique, aiming at the prediction of the brown trout habitat suitability index where partial or totally ungauged conditions occur. Several methods for the assessment of ecological indices are already proposed in the scientific literature, but the possibility of exploiting a geostatistical prediction model, such as Topological Kriging, has never been investigated before. In order to develop a regional habitat suitability model we use the habitat suitability curve, obtained from measured data of brown trout adult individuals collected in several river basins across the USA. The Top-kriging prediction model is then employed to assess the spatial correlation between upstream and downstream habitat suitability indices. The study area is the Metauro River basin, located in the central part of Italy (Marche region), for which both water depth and streamflow data were collected. The present analysis focuses on discharge values corresponding to the 0.1-, 0.5-, 0.9-empirical quantiles derived from flow-duration curves available for seven gauging stations located within the study area, for which three different suitability indices (i.e. ψ10, ψ50 and ψ90) are evaluated. The results of this preliminary analysis are encouraging showing Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies equal to 0.52, 0.65, and 0.69, respectively.

  14. Advances in flash floods understanding and modelling derived from the FloodScale project in South-East France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Braud Isabelle

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean area is prone to intense rainfall events triggering flash floods, characterized by very short response times that sometimes lead to dramatic consequences in terms of casualties and damages. These events can affect large territories, but their impact may be very local in catchments that are generally ungauged. These events remain difficult to predict and the processes leading to their generation still need to be clarified. The HyMeX initiative (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment, 2010-2020 aims at increasing our understanding of the water cycle in the Mediterranean basin, in particular in terms of extreme events. In order to better understand processes leading to flash floods, a four-year experiment (2012-2015 was conducted in the Cévennes region (South-East France as part of the FloodScale project. Both continuous and opportunistic measurements during floods were conducted in two large catchments (Ardèche and Gard rivers with nested instrumentation from the hillslopes to catchments of about 1, 10, 100 to 1000 km2 covering contrasted geology and land use. Continuous measurements include distributed rainfall, stream water level, discharge, water temperature and conductivity and soil moisture measurements. Opportunistic measurements include surface soil moisture and geochemistry sampling during events and gauging of floods using non-contact methods: portable radars to measure surface water velocity or image sequence analysis using LS-PIV (Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry. During the period 2012-2014, and in particular during autumn 2014, several intense events affected the catchments and provided very rich data sets. Data collection was complemented with modelling activity aiming at simulating observed processes. The modelling strategy was setup through a wide range of scales, in order to test hypotheses about physical processes at the smallest scales, and aggregated functioning hypothesis at the largest

  15. Integrating regional and continental scale comparisons of tree composition in Amazonian terra firme forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honorio Coronado, E. N.; Baker, T. R.; Phillips, O. L.; Pitman, N. C. A.; Pennington, R. T.; Vásquez Martínez, R.; Monteagudo, A.; Mogollón, H.; Dávila Cardozo, N.; Ríos, M.; García-Villacorta, R.; Valderrama, E.; Ahuite, M.; Huamantupa, I.; Neill, D. A.; Laurance, W. F.; Nascimento, H. E. M.; Soares de Almeida, S.; Killeen, T. J.; Arroyo, L.; Núñez, P.; Freitas Alvarado, L.

    2009-01-01

    We contrast regional and continental-scale comparisons of the floristic composition of terra firme forest in South Amazonia, using 55 plots across Amazonia and a subset of 30 plots from northern Peru and Ecuador. Firstly, we examine the floristic patterns using both genus- or species-level data and find that the species-level analysis more clearly distinguishes different plot clusters. Secondly, we compare the patterns and causes of floristic differences at regional and continental scales. At a continental scale, ordination analysis shows that species of Lecythidaceae and Sapotaceae are gradually replaced by species of Arecaceae and Myristicaceae from eastern to western Amazonia. These floristic gradients are correlated with gradients in soil fertility and to dry season length, similar to previous studies. At a regional scale, similar patterns are found within north-western Amazonia, where differences in soil fertility distinguish plots where species of Lecythidaceae, characteristic of poor soils, are gradually replaced by species of Myristicaceae on richer soils. The main coordinate of this regional-scale ordination correlates mainly with concentrations of available calcium and magnesium. Thirdly, we ask at a regional scale within north-western Amazonia, whether soil fertility or other distance dependent processes are more important for determining variation in floristic composition. A Mantel test indicates that both soils and geographical distance have a similar and significant role in determining floristic similarity across this region. Overall, these results suggest that regional-scale variation in floristic composition can rival continental scale differences within Amazonian terra firme forests, and that variation in floristic composition at both scales is dependent on a range of processes that include both habitat specialisation related to edaphic conditions and other distance-dependent processes. To fully account for regional scale variation in continental

  16. Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises,

  17. Using phylogenomics to understand the link between biogeographic origins and regional diversification in ratsnakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xin; Lemmon, Alan R; Lemmon, Emily Moriarty; Pyron, R Alexander; Burbrink, Frank T

    2017-06-01

    Globally distributed groups may show regionally distinct rates of diversification, where speciation is elevated given timing and sources of ecological opportunity. However, for most organisms, nearly complete sampling at genomic-data scales to reduce topological error in all regions is unattainable, thus hampering conclusions related to biogeographic origins and rates of diversification. We explore processes leading to the diversity of global ratsnakes and test several important hypotheses related to areas of origin and enhanced diversification upon colonizing new continents. We estimate species trees inferred from phylogenomic scale data (304 loci) while exploring several strategies that consider topological error from each individual gene tree. With a dated species tree, we examine taxonomy and test previous hypotheses that suggest the ratsnakes originated in the Old World (OW) and dispersed to New World (NW). Furthermore, we determine if dispersal to the NW represented a source of ecological opportunity, which should show elevated rates of species diversification. We show that ratsnakes originated in the OW during the mid-Oligocene and subsequently dispersed to the NW by the mid-Miocene; diversification was also elevated in a subclade of NW taxa. Finally, the optimal biogeographic region-dependent speciation model shows that the uptick in ratsnake diversification was associated with colonization of the NW. We consider several alternative explanations that account for regionally distinct diversification rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Regional scale groundwater modelling study for Ganga River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maheswaran, R.; Khosa, R.; Gosain, A. K.; Lahari, S.; Sinha, S. K.; Chahar, B. R.; Dhanya, C. T.

    2016-10-01

    Subsurface movement of water within the alluvial formations of Ganga Basin System of North and East India, extending over an area of 1 million km2, was simulated using Visual MODFLOW based transient numerical model. The study incorporates historical groundwater developments as recorded by various concerned agencies and also accommodates the role of some of the major tributaries of River Ganga as geo-hydrological boundaries. Geo-stratigraphic structures, along with corresponding hydrological parameters,were obtained from Central Groundwater Board, India,and used in the study which was carried out over a time horizon of 4.5 years. The model parameters were fine tuned for calibration using Parameter Estimation (PEST) simulations. Analyses of the stream aquifer interaction using Zone Budget has allowed demarcation of the losing and gaining stretches along the main stem of River Ganga as well as some of its principal tributaries. From a management perspective,and entirely consistent with general understanding, it is seen that unabated long term groundwater extraction within the study basin has induced a sharp decrease in critical dry weather base flow contributions. In view of a surge in demand for dry season irrigation water for agriculture in the area, numerical models can be a useful tool to generate not only an understanding of the underlying groundwater system but also facilitate development of basin-wide detailed impact scenarios as inputs for management and policy action.

  19. Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: Numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergamasco, A.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.; Budgell, W.P.

    2005-01-01

    Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays-a non-glacial period-appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution 01 working group I, n and In to the Third Assessment Report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense water formation sites ad as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus, 13 (1961) 224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean Jeep convection and open-sea ire formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and

  20. Negative Symptom Dimensions of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale Across Geographical Regions: Implications for Social, Linguistic, and Cultural Consistency

    OpenAIRE

    Khan, Anzalee; Liharska, Lora; Harvey, Philip D.; Atkins, Alexandra; Ulshen, Daniel; Keefe, Richard S.E.

    2017-01-01

    Objective: Recognizing the discrete dimensions that underlie negative symptoms in schizophrenia and how these dimensions are understood across localities might result in better understanding and treatment of these symptoms. To this end, the objectives of this study were to 1) identify the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale negative symptom dimensions of expressive deficits and experiential deficits and 2) analyze performance on these dimensions over 15 geographical regions to determine whet...

  1. Inferring coastal processes from regional-scale mapping of 222Radon and salinity: examples from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stieglitz, Thomas C.; Cook, Peter G.; Burnett, William C.

    2010-01-01

    The radon isotope 222 Rn and salinity in coastal surface water were mapped on regional scales, to improve the understanding of coastal processes and their spatial variability. Radon was measured with a surface-towed, continuously recording multi-detector setup on a moving vessel. Numerous processes and locations of land-ocean interaction along the Central Great Barrier Reef coastline were identified and interpreted based on the data collected. These included riverine fluxes, terrestrially-derived fresh submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and the tidal pumping of seawater through mangrove forests. Based on variations in the relationship of the tracers radon and salinity, some aspects of regional freshwater inputs to the coastal zone and to estuaries could be assessed. Concurrent mapping of radon and salinity allowed an efficient qualitative assessment of land-ocean interaction on various spatial and temporal scales, indicating that such surveys on coastal scales can be a useful tool to obtain an overview of SGD locations and processes.

  2. Dissonance and harmony between global and regional-scale seismic anisotropy and mantle dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, T. W.

    2017-12-01

    Huge numbers of SKS splitting observations and improved surface-wave based models of azimuthal anisotropy have advanced our understanding of how convection is recorded in mantle fabrics in the upper mantle. However, we are still debating the relative importance of frozen to actively forming olivine fabrics, subduction zone anisotropy lacks a clear reference model, and regional marine studies yield conflicting evidence as to what exactly is going on at the base of the plates and below. Here, I review the degree of agreement between regional and global observations of seismic anisotropy and how well those may be matched by first-order mantle convection models. Updated bean counting can help contextualize the spatial scales of alignment, and I discuss several examples of the relative roles of plate shear to mantle density anomalies and frozen-in structure for oceanic and continental plates. Resolution of seismological models is globally uneven, but there are some locales where such exercises may yield information on the relative strength of asthenosphere and mantle. Another long-standing question is how olivine fabrics record flow under different stress and volatile conditions. I illustrate how different petrological assumptions might be used to reconcile observations of azimuthal dependency of wave speeds for both Love and Rayleigh waves, and how this could improve our models of the upper mantle, much in the spirit of Montagner's vectorial tomography. This is but one approach to improve the regional realism of global geodynamic background models to understand where in space and time dissonance arises, and if a harmonious model may yet be constructed given our assumptions about the workings of the mantle.

  3. Biogas infrastructure from farm-scale to regional scale, line-pack storage in biogas grids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evert Jan Hengeveld

    2016-01-01

    The number of local and regional initiatives encouraging the production and use of regional produced energy grows. In these new developments biogas can play a role, as a producer of energy, but also in balancing the electricity grid. Collection of biogas from several digesters to a hub supports the

  4. Negative Symptom Dimensions of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale Across Geographical Regions: Implications for Social, Linguistic, and Cultural Consistency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Anzalee; Liharska, Lora; Harvey, Philip D; Atkins, Alexandra; Ulshen, Daniel; Keefe, Richard S E

    2017-12-01

    Objective: Recognizing the discrete dimensions that underlie negative symptoms in schizophrenia and how these dimensions are understood across localities might result in better understanding and treatment of these symptoms. To this end, the objectives of this study were to 1) identify the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale negative symptom dimensions of expressive deficits and experiential deficits and 2) analyze performance on these dimensions over 15 geographical regions to determine whether the items defining them manifest similar reliability across these regions. Design: Data were obtained for the baseline Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale visits of 6,889 subjects across 15 geographical regions. Using confirmatory factor analysis, we examined whether a two-factor negative symptom structure that is found in schizophrenia (experiential deficits and expressive deficits) would be replicated in our sample, and using differential item functioning, we tested the degree to which specific items from each negative symptom subfactor performed across geographical regions in comparison with the United States. Results: The two-factor negative symptom solution was replicated in this sample. Most geographical regions showed moderate-to-large differential item functioning for Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale expressive deficit items, especially N3 Poor Rapport, as compared with Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale experiential deficit items, showing that these items might be interpreted or scored differently in different regions. Across countries, except for India, the differential item functioning values did not favor raters in the United States. Conclusion: These results suggest that the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale negative symptom factor can be better represented by a two-factor model than by a single-factor model. Additionally, the results show significant differences in responses to items representing the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale expressive

  5. The Politics of Scale, Position, and Place in the Governance of Water Resources in the Mekong Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Lebel

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available The appropriate scales for science, management, and decision making cannot be unambiguously derived from physical characteristics of water resources. Scales are a joint product of social and biophysical processes. The politics-of-scale metaphor has been helpful in drawing attention to the ways in which scale choices are constrained overtly by politics, and more subtly by choices of technologies, institutional designs, and measurements. In doing so, however, the scale metaphor has been stretched to cover a lot of different spatial relationships. In this paper, we argue that there are benefits to understanding - and actions to distinguish - issues of scale from those of place and position. We illustrate our arguments with examples from the governance of water resources in the Mekong region, where key scientific information is often limited to a few sources. Acknowledging how actors' interests fit along various spatial, temporal, jurisdictional, and other social scales helps make the case for innovative and more inclusive means for bringing multi-level interests to a common forum. Deliberation can provide a check on the extent of shared understanding and key uncertainties.

  6. The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M.

    2017-12-01

    This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil

  7. Large-scale projects between regional planning and environmental protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, G.

    1984-01-01

    The first part of the work discusses the current law of land-use planning, municipal and technical construction planning, and licensing under the atomic energy law and the federal law on immission protection. In the second part some theses suggesting modifications are submitted. In the sector of land-use planning substantial contributions to the protection of the environment can only be expected from programs and plans (aims). For the environmental conflicts likely to arise from large-scale projects (nuclear power plant, fossil-fuel power plant) this holds good for the most part of site selection plans. They have bearings on environmental protection in that they presuppose thorough examination of facts, help to recognize possible conflicts at an early date and provide a frame for solving those problems. Municipal construction planning is guided by the following principles: Environmental protection is an equivalent planning target. Environmental data and facts and their methodical processing play a fundamental part as they constitute the basis of evaluation. Under the rules and regulations of the federal law on immission protection, section 5, number 2 - prevention of nuisances - operators are obliged to take preventive care of risks. That section is not concerned with planning or distribution. Neither does the licensing of nuclear plants have planning character. So far as the legal preconditions of licensing are fulfilled, the scope for rejection of an application under section 7, subsection 2 of the atomic energy law in view of site selection and requirement of a plant hardly carries any practical weight. (orig./HP) [de

  8. Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamasco, A.; Budgell, W. P.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.

    2005-03-01

    Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays--a non-glacial period--appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution of working group I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense-water formation sites act as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus131961224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air-sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean deep convection and open-sea ice formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and

  9. Hydrogeochemical characterization of groundwater in the Outaouais Region (Québec, Canada) - A regional scale study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montcoudiol, N.; Molson, J. W.; Lemieux, J.

    2013-12-01

    rainwater in unconfined aquifers (bromide below detection limit). Secondary processes, related to the bedrock geology, are responsible for exceedances of Canadian drinking water standards. They include the dissolution of F-, U-, Fe- and Mn-bearing minerals known to be abundant in the region (deposits and mines throughout the study area). Chloride contamination was identified in some recharge areas, related to anthropogenic activities. The study has identified Champlain Sea invasion, cation exchange and freshwater recharge as the main geochemical processes affecting groundwater chemistry in this region. Secondary processes were also identified, based on exceedances of Canadian drinking water standards. These results will be applied at the local scale, along a flow path, to relate geochemical evolution to groundwater flow conditions. More data are available at this scale such as stable isotope content (δ18O and δ2H), groundwater age (tritium and 14C) and noble gas content. These additional data will help improve our understanding about groundwater chemical evolution and define a complete conceptual model.

  10. Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenke, A.; Hoyle, C. R.; Luo, B.; Rozanov, E.; Gröbner, J.; Maag, L.; Brönnimann, S.; Peter, T.

    2013-10-01

    Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a

  11. Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Stenke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size" against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North

  12. Spatial data analysis and integration for regional-scale geothermal potential mapping, West Java, Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carranza, Emmanuel John M.; Barritt, Sally D. [Department of Earth Systems Analysis, International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Enschede (Netherlands); Wibowo, Hendro; Sumintadireja, Prihadi [Laboratory of Volcanology and Geothermal, Geology Department, Institute of Technology Bandung (ITB), Bandung (Indonesia)

    2008-06-15

    Conceptual modeling and predictive mapping of potential for geothermal resources at the regional-scale in West Java are supported by analysis of the spatial distribution of geothermal prospects and thermal springs, and their spatial associations with geologic features derived from publicly available regional-scale spatial data sets. Fry analysis shows that geothermal occurrences have regional-scale spatial distributions that are related to Quaternary volcanic centers and shallow earthquake epicenters. Spatial frequency distribution analysis shows that geothermal occurrences have strong positive spatial associations with Quaternary volcanic centers, Quaternary volcanic rocks, quasi-gravity lows, and NE-, NNW-, WNW-trending faults. These geological features, with their strong positive spatial associations with geothermal occurrences, constitute spatial recognition criteria of regional-scale geothermal potential in a study area. Application of data-driven evidential belief functions in GIS-based predictive mapping of regional-scale geothermal potential resulted in delineation of high potential zones occupying 25% of West Java, which is a substantial reduction of the search area for further exploration of geothermal resources. The predicted high potential zones delineate about 53-58% of the training geothermal areas and 94% of the validated geothermal occurrences. The results of this study demonstrate the value of regional-scale geothermal potential mapping in: (a) data-poor situations, such as West Java, and (b) regions with geotectonic environments similar to the study area. (author)

  13. Biogeography of Deep-sea benthic bacteria at regional scale (LTER HAUSGARTEN, Fram Strait, Arctic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marianne Jacob

    Full Text Available Knowledge on spatial scales of the distribution of deep-sea life is still sparse, but highly relevant to the understanding of dispersal, habitat ranges and ecological processes. We examined regional spatial distribution patterns of the benthic bacterial community and covarying environmental parameters such as water depth, biomass and energy availability at the Arctic Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER site HAUSGARTEN (Eastern Fram Strait. Samples from 13 stations were retrieved from a bathymetric (1,284-3,535 m water depth, 54 km in length and a latitudinal transect (∼ 2,500 m water depth; 123 km in length. 454 massively parallel tag sequencing (MPTS and automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis (ARISA were combined to describe both abundant and rare types shaping the bacterial community. This spatial sampling scheme allowed detection of up to 99% of the estimated richness on phylum and class levels. At the resolution of operational taxonomic units (97% sequence identity; OTU3% only 36% of the Chao1 estimated richness was recovered, indicating a high diversity, mostly due to rare types (62% of all OTU3%. Accordingly, a high turnover of the bacterial community was also observed between any two sampling stations (average replacement of 79% of OTU3%, yet no direct correlation with spatial distance was observed within the region. Bacterial community composition and structure differed significantly with increasing water depth along the bathymetric transect. The relative sequence abundance of Verrucomicrobia and Planctomycetes decreased significantly with water depth, and that of Deferribacteres increased. Energy availability, estimated from phytodetrital pigment concentrations in the sediments, partly explained the variation in community structure. Overall, this study indicates a high proportion of unique bacterial types on relatively small spatial scales (tens of kilometers, and supports the sampling design of the LTER site HAUSGARTEN to

  14. Understanding the shock and detonation response of high explosives at the continuum and meso scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handley, C. A.; Lambourn, B. D.; Whitworth, N. J.; James, H. R.; Belfield, W. J.

    2018-03-01

    The shock and detonation response of high explosives has been an active research topic for more than a century. In recent years, high quality data from experiments using embedded gauges and other diagnostic techniques have inspired the development of a range of new high-fidelity computer models for explosives. The experiments and models have led to new insights, both at the continuum scale applicable to most shock and detonation experiments, and at the mesoscale relevant to hotspots and burning within explosive microstructures. This article reviews the continuum and mesoscale models, and their application to explosive phenomena, gaining insights to aid future model development and improved understanding of the physics of shock initiation and detonation propagation. In particular, it is argued that "desensitization" and the effect of porosity on high explosives can both be explained by the combined effect of thermodynamics and hydrodynamics, rather than the traditional hotspot-based explanations linked to pressure-dependent reaction rates.

  15. Contribution to Surface Water Contamination Understanding by Pesticides and Pharmaceuticals, at a Watershed Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéphanie Piel

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at understanding the presence of regulated and emerging micropollutants, particularly pesticides and pharmaceuticals, in surface water, regarding spatial and temporal influences at a watershed scale. The study of relations between micropollutants and other water quality and hydroclimatic parameters was carried out from a statistical analysis on historical and experimental data of different sampling sites from the main watershed of Brittany, western France. The outcomes point out the influence of urban and rural areas of the watershed as well as the impact of seasons on contamination variations. This work contributes to health risk assessment related to surface water contamination by micropollutants. This approach is particularly interesting in the case of agricultural watersheds such as the one studied, where more than 80% of surface water is used to produce drinking water.

  16. Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Phipps, Steven J.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Davin, Edouard L.; Donat, Markus G.; Hirschi, Martin; Lenton, Andrew; Wilhelm, Micah; Kravitz, Ben

    2018-02-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions urgently need to be reduced. Even with a step up in mitigation, the goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 °C remains challenging. Consequences of missing these goals are substantial, especially on regional scales. Because progress in the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions has been slow, climate engineering schemes are increasingly being discussed. But global schemes remain controversial and have important shortcomings. A reduction of global mean temperature through global-scale management of solar radiation could lead to strong regional disparities and affect rainfall patterns. On the other hand, active management of land radiative effects on a regional scale represents an alternative option of climate engineering that has been little discussed. Regional land radiative management could help to counteract warming, in particular hot extremes in densely populated and important agricultural regions. Regional land radiative management also raises some ethical issues, and its efficacy would be limited in time and space, depending on crop growing periods and constraints on agricultural management. But through its more regional focus and reliance on tested techniques, regional land radiative management avoids some of the main shortcomings associated with global radiation management. We argue that albedo-related climate benefits of land management should be considered more prominently when assessing regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation as well as ecosystem services.

  17. Towards a physically-based multi-scale ecohydrological simulator for semi-arid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caviedes-Voullième, Daniel; Josefik, Zoltan; Hinz, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    The use of numerical models as tools for describing and understanding complex ecohydrological systems has enabled to test hypothesis and propose fundamental, process-based explanations of the system system behaviour as a whole as well as its internal dynamics. Reaction-diffusion equations have been used to describe and generate organized pattern such as bands, spots, and labyrinths using simple feedback mechanisms and boundary conditions. Alternatively, pattern-matching cellular automaton models have been used to generate vegetation self-organization in arid and semi-arid regions also using simple description of surface hydrological processes. A key question is: How much physical realism is needed in order to adequately capture the pattern formation processes in semi-arid regions while reliably representing the water balance dynamics at the relevant time scales? In fact, redistribution of water by surface runoff at the hillslope scale occurs at temporal resolution of minutes while the vegetation development requires much lower temporal resolution and longer times spans. This generates a fundamental spatio-temporal multi-scale problem to be solved, for which high resolution rainfall and surface topography are required. Accordingly, the objective of this contribution is to provide proof-of-concept that governing processes can be described numerically at those multiple scales. The requirements for a simulating ecohydrological processes and pattern formation with increased physical realism are, amongst others: i. high resolution rainfall that adequately captures the triggers of growth as vegetation dynamics of arid regions respond as pulsed systems. ii. complex, natural topography in order to accurately model drainage patterns, as surface water redistribution is highly sensitive to topographic features. iii. microtopography and hydraulic roughness, as small scale variations do impact on large scale hillslope behaviour iv. moisture dependent infiltration as temporal

  18. The importance of the relationship between scale and process in understanding long-term DOC dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, J M; Bottrell, S H; Evans, C D; Monteith, D T; Bartlett, R; Rose, R; Newton, R J; Chapman, P J

    2010-06-01

    Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon have increased in many, but not all, surface waters across acid impacted areas of Europe and North America over the last two decades. Over the last eight years several hypotheses have been put forward to explain these increases, but none are yet accepted universally. Research in this area appears to have reached a stalemate between those favouring declining atmospheric deposition, climate change or land management as the key driver of long-term DOC trends. While it is clear that many of these factors influence DOC dynamics in soil and stream waters, their effect varies over different temporal and spatial scales. We argue that regional differences in acid deposition loading may account for the apparent discrepancies between studies. DOC has shown strong monotonic increases in areas which have experienced strong downward trends in pollutant sulphur and/or seasalt deposition. Elsewhere climatic factors, that strongly influence seasonality, have also dominated inter-annual variability, and here long-term monotonic DOC trends are often difficult to detect. Furthermore, in areas receiving similar acid loadings, different catchment characteristics could have affected the site specific sensitivity to changes in acidity and therefore the magnitude of DOC release in response to changes in sulphur deposition. We suggest that confusion over these temporal and spatial scales of investigation has contributed unnecessarily to the disagreement over the main regional driver(s) of DOC trends, and that the data behind the majority of these studies is more compatible than is often conveyed. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. A cross-scale approach to understand drought-induced variability of sagebrush ecosystem productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assal, T.; Anderson, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) mortality has recently been reported in the Upper Green River Basin (Wyoming, USA) of the sagebrush steppe of western North America. Numerous causes have been suggested, but recent drought (2012-13) is the likely mechanism of mortality in this water-limited ecosystem which provides critical habitat for many species of wildlife. An understanding of the variability in patterns of productivity with respect to climate is essential to exploit landscape scale remote sensing for detection of subtle changes associated with mortality in this sparse, uniformly vegetated ecosystem. We used the standardized precipitation index to characterize drought conditions and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery (250-m resolution) to characterize broad characteristics of growing season productivity. We calculated per-pixel growing season anomalies over a 16-year period (2000-2015) to identify the spatial and temporal variability in productivity. Metrics derived from Landsat satellite imagery (30-m resolution) were used to further investigate trends within anomalous areas at local scales. We found evidence to support an initial hypothesis that antecedent winter drought was most important in explaining reduced productivity. The results indicate drought effects were inconsistent over space and time. MODIS derived productivity deviated by more than four standard deviations in heavily impacted areas, but was well within the interannual variability in other areas. Growing season anomalies highlighted dramatic declines in productivity during the 2012 and 2013 growing seasons. However, large negative anomalies persisted in other areas during the 2014 growing season, indicating lag effects of drought. We are further investigating if the reduction in productivity is mediated by local biophysical properties. Our analysis identified spatially explicit patterns of ecosystem properties altered by severe drought which are consistent with

  20. Understanding local-scale drivers of biodiversity outcomes in terrestrial protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Megan D; Craigie, Ian D; Dudley, Nigel; Hockings, Marc

    2017-07-01

    Conservation relies heavily on protected areas (PAs) maintaining their key biodiversity features to meet global biodiversity conservation goals. However, PAs have had variable success, with many failing to fully maintain their biodiversity features. The current literature concerning what drives variability in PA performance is rapidly expanding but unclear, sometimes contradictory, and spread across multiple disciplines. A clear understanding of the drivers of successful biodiversity conservation in PAs is necessary to make them fully effective. Here, we conduct a comprehensive assessment of the current state of knowledge concerning the drivers of biological outcomes within PAs, focusing on those that can be addressed at local scales. We evaluate evidence in support of potential drivers to identify those that enable more successful outcomes and those that impede success and provide a synthetic review. Interactions are discussed where they are known, and we highlight gaps in understanding. We find that elements of PA design, management, and local and national governance challenges, species and system ecology, and sociopolitical context can all influence outcomes. Adjusting PA management to focus on actions and policies that influence the key drivers identified here could improve global biodiversity outcomes. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

  1. Regionalization of meso-scale physically based nitrogen modeling outputs to the macro-scale by the use of regression trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Künne, A.; Fink, M.; Kipka, H.; Krause, P.; Flügel, W.-A.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, a method is presented to estimate excess nitrogen on large scales considering single field processes. The approach was implemented by using the physically based model J2000-S to simulate the nitrogen balance as well as the hydrological dynamics within meso-scale test catchments. The model input data, the parameterization, the results and a detailed system understanding were used to generate the regression tree models with GUIDE (Loh, 2002). For each landscape type in the federal state of Thuringia a regression tree was calibrated and validated using the model data and results of excess nitrogen from the test catchments. Hydrological parameters such as precipitation and evapotranspiration were also used to predict excess nitrogen by the regression tree model. Hence they had to be calculated and regionalized as well for the state of Thuringia. Here the model J2000g was used to simulate the water balance on the macro scale. With the regression trees the excess nitrogen was regionalized for each landscape type of Thuringia. The approach allows calculating the potential nitrogen input into the streams of the drainage area. The results show that the applied methodology was able to transfer the detailed model results of the meso-scale catchments to the entire state of Thuringia by low computing time without losing the detailed knowledge from the nitrogen transport modeling. This was validated with modeling results from Fink (2004) in a catchment lying in the regionalization area. The regionalized and modeled excess nitrogen correspond with 94%. The study was conducted within the framework of a project in collaboration with the Thuringian Environmental Ministry, whose overall aim was to assess the effect of agro-environmental measures regarding load reduction in the water bodies of Thuringia to fulfill the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive (Bäse et al., 2007; Fink, 2006; Fink et al., 2007).

  2. Impacts of different characterizations of large-scale background on simulated regional-scale ozone over the continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogrefe, Christian; Liu, Peng; Pouliot, George; Mathur, Rohit; Roselle, Shawn; Flemming, Johannes; Lin, Meiyun; Park, Rokjin J.

    2018-03-01

    This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boundary conditions derived from hemispheric or global-scale models. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations supporting this analysis were performed over the continental US for the year 2010 within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP) activities. CMAQ process analysis (PA) results highlight the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection on the ozone burden in the mid-to-upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Vertical mixing, including mixing by convective clouds, couples fluctuations in free-tropospheric ozone to ozone in lower layers. Hypothetical bounding scenarios were performed to quantify the effects of emissions, boundary conditions, and ozone dry deposition on the simulated ozone burden. Analysis of these simulations confirms that the characterization of ozone outside the regional-scale modeling domain can have a profound impact on simulated regional-scale ozone. This was further investigated by using data from four hemispheric or global modeling systems (Chemistry - Integrated Forecasting Model (C-IFS), CMAQ extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ), the Goddard Earth Observing System model coupled to chemistry (GEOS-Chem), and AM3) to derive alternate boundary conditions for the regional-scale CMAQ simulations. The regional-scale CMAQ simulations using these four different boundary conditions showed that the largest ozone abundance in the upper layers was simulated when using boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, followed by the simulations using C-IFS, AM3, and H-CMAQ boundary conditions, consistent with the analysis of the ozone fields

  3. Toward the Development of a Cold Regions Regional-Scale Hydrologic Model, Final Project Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinzman, Larry D [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Bolton, William Robert [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Young-Robertson, Jessica (Cable) [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2018-01-02

    This project improves meso-scale hydrologic modeling in the boreal forest by: (1) demonstrating the importance of capturing the heterogeneity of the landscape using small scale datasets for parameterization for both small and large basins; (2) demonstrating that in drier parts of the landscape and as the boreal forest dries with climate change, modeling approaches must consider the sensitivity of simulations to soil hydraulic parameters - such as residual water content - that are usually held constant. Thus, variability / flexibility in residual water content must be considered for accurate simulation of hydrologic processes in the boreal forest; (3) demonstrating that assessing climate change impacts on boreal forest hydrology through multiple model integration must account for direct effects of climate change (temperature and precipitation), and indirect effects from climate impacts on landscape characteristics (permafrost and vegetation distribution). Simulations demonstrated that climate change will increase runoff, but will increase ET to a greater extent and result in a drying of the landscape; and (4) vegetation plays a significant role in boreal hydrologic processes in permafrost free areas that have deciduous trees. This landscape type results in a decoupling of ET and precipitation, a tight coupling of ET and temperature, low runoff, and overall soil drying.

  4. Evaluation and uncertainty analysis of regional-scale CLM4.5 net carbon flux estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Hanna; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun; Baatz, Roland; Montzka, Carsten; Schmidt, Marius; Vereecken, Harry

    2018-01-01

    Modeling net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at the regional scale with land surface models (LSMs) is relevant for the estimation of regional carbon balances, but studies on it are very limited. Furthermore, it is essential to better understand and quantify the uncertainty of LSMs in order to improve them. An important key variable in this respect is the prognostic leaf area index (LAI), which is very sensitive to forcing data and strongly affects the modeled NEE. We applied the Community Land Model (CLM4.5-BGC) to the Rur catchment in western Germany and compared estimated and default ecological key parameters for modeling carbon fluxes and LAI. The parameter estimates were previously estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach DREAM(zs) for four of the most widespread plant functional types in the catchment. It was found that the catchment-scale annual NEE was strongly positive with default parameter values but negative (and closer to observations) with the estimated values. Thus, the estimation of CLM parameters with local NEE observations can be highly relevant when determining regional carbon balances. To obtain a more comprehensive picture of model uncertainty, CLM ensembles were set up with perturbed meteorological input and uncertain initial states in addition to uncertain parameters. C3 grass and C3 crops were particularly sensitive to the perturbed meteorological input, which resulted in a strong increase in the standard deviation of the annual NEE sum (σ ∑ NEE) for the different ensemble members from ˜ 2 to 3 g C m-2 yr-1 (with uncertain parameters) to ˜ 45 g C m-2 yr-1 (C3 grass) and ˜ 75 g C m-2 yr-1 (C3 crops) with perturbed forcings. This increase in uncertainty is related to the impact of the meteorological forcings on leaf onset and senescence, and enhanced/reduced drought stress related to perturbation of precipitation. The NEE uncertainty for the forest plant functional type (PFT) was considerably lower (σ ∑ NEE ˜ 4.0-13.5 g C

  5. Interactions Between Atmospheric Aerosols and Marine Boundary Layer Clouds on Regional and Global Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhen

    Airborne aerosols are crucial atmospheric constituents that are involved in global climate change and human life qualities. Understanding the nature and magnitude of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions is critical in model predictions for atmospheric radiation budget and the water cycle. The interactions depend on a variety of factors including aerosol physicochemical complexity, cloud types, meteorological and thermodynamic regimes and data processing techniques. This PhD work is an effort to quantify the relationships among aerosol, clouds, and precipitation on both global and regional scales by using satellite retrievals and aircraft measurements. The first study examines spatial distributions of conversion rate of cloud water to rainwater in warm maritime clouds over the globe by using NASA A-Train satellite data. This study compares the time scale of the onset of precipitation with different aerosol categories defined by values of aerosol optical depth, fine mode fraction, and Angstrom Exponent. The results indicate that conversion time scales are actually quite sensitive to lower tropospheric static stability (LTSS) and cloud liquid water path (LWP), in addition to aerosol type. Analysis shows that tropical Pacific Ocean is dominated by the highest average conversion rate while subtropical warm cloud regions (far northeastern Pacific Ocean, far southeastern Pacific Ocean, Western Africa coastal area) exhibit the opposite result. Conversion times are mostly shorter for lower LTSS regimes. When LTSS condition is fixed, higher conversion rates coincide with higher LWP and lower aerosol index categories. After a general global view of physical property quantifications, the rest of the presented PhD studies is focused on regional airborne observations, especially bulk cloud water chemistry and aerosol aqueous-phase reactions during the summertime off the California coast. Local air mass origins are categorized into three distinct types (ocean, ships, and land

  6. Toward an Understanding of Foreground Emission in the BICEP2 Region

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    BICEP2 has reported the detection of a degree-scale B-mode polarization pattern in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and has interpreted the measurement as evidence for primordial gravitational waves. Motivated by the profound importance of the discovery of gravitational waves from the early Universe, I will discuss to what extent a combination of Galactic foregrounds and lensed E-modes could be responsible for the signal. I will present independent estimates of the dust polarization signal in the BICEP2 region using several different approaches. These estimates of the dust polarization signal in the BICEP2 region are consistent with each other, but the expected amplitude of the dust polarization power spectrum is uncertain by about a factor of three. The lower end of the prediction leaves room for a primordial contribution, but at the higher end the dust in combination with the standard CMB lensing signal could account for the BICEP2 observations, without requiring the existence of primordial gravitatio...

  7. Validating a continental-scale groundwater diffuse pollution model using regional datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouedraogo, Issoufou; Defourny, Pierre; Vanclooster, Marnik

    2017-12-11

    In this study, we assess the validity of an African-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrates. In a previous study, we identified a statistical continental-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrate. The model was identified using a pan-African meta-analysis of available nitrate groundwater pollution studies. The model was implemented in both Random Forest (RF) and multiple regression formats. For both approaches, we collected as predictors a comprehensive GIS database of 13 spatial attributes, related to land use, soil type, hydrogeology, topography, climatology, region typology, nitrogen fertiliser application rate, and population density. In this paper, we validate the continental-scale model of groundwater contamination by using a nitrate measurement dataset from three African countries. We discuss the issue of data availability, and quality and scale issues, as challenges in validation. Notwithstanding that the modelling procedure exhibited very good success using a continental-scale dataset (e.g. R 2  = 0.97 in the RF format using a cross-validation approach), the continental-scale model could not be used without recalibration to predict nitrate pollution at the country scale using regional data. In addition, when recalibrating the model using country-scale datasets, the order of model exploratory factors changes. This suggests that the structure and the parameters of a statistical spatially distributed groundwater degradation model for the African continent are strongly scale dependent.

  8. A review of operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kukkonen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed in this article include how weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry models are integrated into chemical weather forecasting systems, how physical processes are incorporated into the models through parameterization schemes, how the model architecture affects the predicted variables, and how air chemistry and aerosol processes are formulated. In addition, we discuss sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the models, user operational requirements, such as model availability and documentation, and output availability and dissemination. In this manner, this article allows for the evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various modelling systems and modelling approaches. Finally, this article highlights the most prominent gaps of knowledge for chemical weather forecasting models and suggests potential priorities for future research directions, for the following selected focus areas: emission inventories, the integration of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport models, boundary conditions and nesting of models, data assimilation of the various chemical species, improved understanding and parameterization of physical processes, better evaluation of models against data and the construction of model ensembles.

  9. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

    2015-02-20

    Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

  10. Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

  11. Causal inference between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors in a large-scale region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yuqiong; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Qi; Yu, Huanyun; Liu, Jianfeng; Tian, Yu; Chang, Chunying; Lei, Jing

    2017-01-01

    The causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors are generally obtained from field experiments at local scales at present, and lack sufficient evidence from large scales. However, inferring causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions is challenging. Because the conventional correlation-based approaches used for causation assessments across large-scale regions, at the expense of actual causation, can result in spurious insights. In this study, a general approach framework, Intervention calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (IDA) combined with the backdoor criterion (BC), was introduced to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and the potential environmental factors across large-scale regions. We take the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China as a case study. The causal structures and effects were identified based on the concentrations of heavy metals (Zn, As, Cu, Hg, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd) in soil (0–20 cm depth) and vegetable (lettuce) and 40 environmental factors (soil properties, extractable heavy metals and weathering indices) in 94 samples across the PRD. Results show that the bioavailability of heavy metals (Cd, Zn, Cr, Ni and As) was causally influenced by soil properties and soil weathering factors, whereas no causal factor impacted the bioavailability of Cu, Hg and Pb. No latent factor was found between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors. The causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors at field experiments is consistent with that on a large scale. The IDA combined with the BC provides a powerful tool to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions. Causal inference in a large system with the dynamic changes has great implications for system-based risk management. - Causation between the

  12. Understanding I/O workload characteristics of a Peta-scale storage system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Youngjae [ORNL; Gunasekaran, Raghul [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    Understanding workload characteristics is critical for optimizing and improving the performance of current systems and software, and architecting new storage systems based on observed workload patterns. In this paper, we characterize the I/O workloads of scientific applications of one of the world s fastest high performance computing (HPC) storage cluster, Spider, at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). OLCF flagship petascale simulation platform, Titan, and other large HPC clusters, in total over 250 thousands compute cores, depend on Spider for their I/O needs. We characterize the system utilization, the demands of reads and writes, idle time, storage space utilization, and the distribution of read requests to write requests for the Peta-scale Storage Systems. From this study, we develop synthesized workloads, and we show that the read and write I/O bandwidth usage as well as the inter-arrival time of requests can be modeled as a Pareto distribution. We also study the I/O load imbalance problems using I/O performance data collected from the Spider storage system.

  13. Quantitative regional validation of the visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, Christiane; Benedictus, Marije R.; Koedam, Esther L.G.M.; Scheltens, Philip; Flier, Wiesje M. van der; Versteeg, Adriaan; Wattjes, Mike P.; Barkhof, Frederik; Vrenken, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    Validate the four-point visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) on magnetic resonance images (MRI) through quantitative grey matter (GM) volumetry and voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to justify its use in clinical practice. Two hundred twenty-nine patients with probable Alzheimer's disease and 128 with subjective memory complaints underwent 3T MRI. PCA was rated according to the visual rating scale. GM volumes of six posterior structures and the total posterior region were extracted using IBASPM and compared among PCA groups. To determine which anatomical regions contributed most to the visual scores, we used binary logistic regression. VBM compared local GM density among groups. Patients were categorised according to their PCA scores: PCA-0 (n = 122), PCA-1 (n = 143), PCA-2 (n = 79), and PCA-3 (n = 13). All structures except the posterior cingulate differed significantly among groups. The inferior parietal gyrus volume discriminated the most between rating scale levels. VBM showed that PCA-1 had a lower GM volume than PCA-0 in the parietal region and other brain regions, whereas between PCA-1 and PCA-2/3 GM atrophy was mostly restricted to posterior regions. The visual PCA rating scale is quantitatively validated and reliably reflects GM atrophy in parietal regions, making it a valuable tool for the daily radiological assessment of dementia. (orig.)

  14. Quantitative regional validation of the visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moeller, Christiane; Benedictus, Marije R.; Koedam, Esther L.G.M.; Scheltens, Philip [VU University Medical Center, Alzheimer Center and Department of Neurology, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Flier, Wiesje M. van der [VU University Medical Center, Alzheimer Center and Department of Neurology, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); VU University Medical Center, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Versteeg, Adriaan; Wattjes, Mike P.; Barkhof, Frederik [VU University Medical Center, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Vrenken, Hugo [VU University Medical Center, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands); VU University Medical Center, Department of Physics and Medical Technology, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2014-02-15

    Validate the four-point visual rating scale for posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) on magnetic resonance images (MRI) through quantitative grey matter (GM) volumetry and voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to justify its use in clinical practice. Two hundred twenty-nine patients with probable Alzheimer's disease and 128 with subjective memory complaints underwent 3T MRI. PCA was rated according to the visual rating scale. GM volumes of six posterior structures and the total posterior region were extracted using IBASPM and compared among PCA groups. To determine which anatomical regions contributed most to the visual scores, we used binary logistic regression. VBM compared local GM density among groups. Patients were categorised according to their PCA scores: PCA-0 (n = 122), PCA-1 (n = 143), PCA-2 (n = 79), and PCA-3 (n = 13). All structures except the posterior cingulate differed significantly among groups. The inferior parietal gyrus volume discriminated the most between rating scale levels. VBM showed that PCA-1 had a lower GM volume than PCA-0 in the parietal region and other brain regions, whereas between PCA-1 and PCA-2/3 GM atrophy was mostly restricted to posterior regions. The visual PCA rating scale is quantitatively validated and reliably reflects GM atrophy in parietal regions, making it a valuable tool for the daily radiological assessment of dementia. (orig.)

  15. A REGION-BASED MULTI-SCALE APPROACH FOR OBJECT-BASED IMAGE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Kavzoglu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Within the last two decades, object-based image analysis (OBIA considering objects (i.e. groups of pixels instead of pixels has gained popularity and attracted increasing interest. The most important stage of the OBIA is image segmentation that groups spectrally similar adjacent pixels considering not only the spectral features but also spatial and textural features. Although there are several parameters (scale, shape, compactness and band weights to be set by the analyst, scale parameter stands out the most important parameter in segmentation process. Estimating optimal scale parameter is crucially important to increase the classification accuracy that depends on image resolution, image object size and characteristics of the study area. In this study, two scale-selection strategies were implemented in the image segmentation process using pan-sharped Qickbird-2 image. The first strategy estimates optimal scale parameters for the eight sub-regions. For this purpose, the local variance/rate of change (LV-RoC graphs produced by the ESP-2 tool were analysed to determine fine, moderate and coarse scales for each region. In the second strategy, the image was segmented using the three candidate scale values (fine, moderate, coarse determined from the LV-RoC graph calculated for whole image. The nearest neighbour classifier was applied in all segmentation experiments and equal number of pixels was randomly selected to calculate accuracy metrics (overall accuracy and kappa coefficient. Comparison of region-based and image-based segmentation was carried out on the classified images and found that region-based multi-scale OBIA produced significantly more accurate results than image-based single-scale OBIA. The difference in classification accuracy reached to 10% in terms of overall accuracy.

  16. High resolution modelling of aerosol dispersion regimes during the CAPITOUL field experiment: from regional to local scale interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Aouizerats

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available High resolution simulation of complex aerosol particle evolution and gaseous chemistry over an atmospheric urban area is of great interest for understanding air quality and processes. In this context, the CAPITOUL (Canopy and Aerosol Particle Interactions in the Toulouse Urban Layer field experiment aims at a better understanding of the interactions between the urban dynamics and the aerosol plumes. During a two-day Intensive Observational Period, a numerical model experiment was set up to reproduce the spatial distribution of specific particle pollutants, from the regional scales and the interactions between different cities, to the local scales with specific turbulent structures. Observations show that local dynamics depends on the day-regime, and may lead to different mesoscale dynamical structures. This study focuses on reproducing these fine scale dynamical structures, and investigate the impact on the aerosol plume dispersion. The 500-m resolution simulation manages to reproduce convective rolls at local scale, which concentrate most of the aerosol particles and can locally affect the pollutant dispersion and air quality.

  17. Scaled parametric equation of state for steam in the critical region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, T.A.; Sengers, J.V.

    1975-01-01

    The anomalous thermodynamic behavior of fluids near the critical point can be described in terms of scaling laws. In recent years a parametric equation of state, the so-called Linear Model, has been proposed that satisfies the scaling laws and contains only a small number of adjustable parameters. It is shown that the Linear Model yields a satisfactory representation of the experimental P-V-T data for steam in the critical region. (29 references)

  18. Landscape-and regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Jacob S. Fraser; William D. Dijak

    2016-01-01

    Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating at multiple scales. Niche and biophysical process models have been commonly used to predict climate change effects at regional scales, however, these models have limited capability to include site-scale population dynamics and landscape- scale disturbance and dispersal. We applied a landscape...

  19. Machine Learning for Big Data: A Study to Understand Limits at Scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sukumar, Sreenivas R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Del-Castillo-Negrete, Carlos Emilio [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-12-21

    This report aims to empirically understand the limits of machine learning when applied to Big Data. We observe that recent innovations in being able to collect, access, organize, integrate, and query massive amounts of data from a wide variety of data sources have brought statistical data mining and machine learning under more scrutiny, evaluation and application for gleaning insights from the data than ever before. Much is expected from algorithms without understanding their limitations at scale while dealing with massive datasets. In that context, we pose and address the following questions How does a machine learning algorithm perform on measures such as accuracy and execution time with increasing sample size and feature dimensionality? Does training with more samples guarantee better accuracy? How many features to compute for a given problem? Do more features guarantee better accuracy? Do efforts to derive and calculate more features and train on larger samples worth the effort? As problems become more complex and traditional binary classification algorithms are replaced with multi-task, multi-class categorization algorithms do parallel learners perform better? What happens to the accuracy of the learning algorithm when trained to categorize multiple classes within the same feature space? Towards finding answers to these questions, we describe the design of an empirical study and present the results. We conclude with the following observations (i) accuracy of the learning algorithm increases with increasing sample size but saturates at a point, beyond which more samples do not contribute to better accuracy/learning, (ii) the richness of the feature space dictates performance - both accuracy and training time, (iii) increased dimensionality often reflected in better performance (higher accuracy in spite of longer training times) but the improvements are not commensurate the efforts for feature computation and training and (iv) accuracy of the learning algorithms

  20. Using Climate Regionalization to Understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Precipitation Performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regonda, Satish K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Rodell, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast SystemVersion 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction.

  1. Regional CO2 and latent heat surface fluxes in the Southern Great Plains: Measurements, modeling, and scaling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riley, W. J.; Biraud, S.C.; Torn, M.S.; Fischer, M.L.; Billesbach, D.P.; Berry, J.A.

    2009-08-15

    Characterizing net ecosystem exchanges (NEE) of CO{sub 2} and sensible and latent heat fluxes in heterogeneous landscapes is difficult, yet critical given expected changes in climate and land use. We report here a measurement and modeling study designed to improve our understanding of surface to atmosphere gas exchanges under very heterogeneous land cover in the mostly agricultural U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP). We combined three years of site-level, eddy covariance measurements in several of the dominant land cover types with regional-scale climate data from the distributed Mesonet stations and Next Generation Weather Radar precipitation measurements to calibrate a land surface model of trace gas and energy exchanges (isotope-enabled land surface model (ISOLSM)). Yearly variations in vegetation cover distributions were estimated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index and compared to regional and subregional vegetation cover type estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture census. We first applied ISOLSM at a 250 m spatial scale to account for vegetation cover type and leaf area variations that occur on hundred meter scales. Because of computational constraints, we developed a subsampling scheme within 10 km 'macrocells' to perform these high-resolution simulations. We estimate that the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility SGP region net CO{sub 2} exchange with the local atmosphere was -240, -340, and -270 gC m{sup -2} yr{sup -1} (positive toward the atmosphere) in 2003, 2004, and 2005, respectively, with large seasonal variations. We also performed simulations using two scaling approaches at resolutions of 10, 30, 60, and 90 km. The scaling approach applied in current land surface models led to regional NEE biases of up to 50 and 20% in weekly and annual estimates, respectively. An important factor in causing these biases was the complex leaf area index (LAI) distribution

  2. Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: remote versus local effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devaraju, N; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

    2015-03-17

    In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

  3. Understanding convective extreme precipitation scaling using observations and an entraining plume model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loriaux, J.M.; Lenderink, G.; De Roode, S.R.; Siebesma, A.P.

    2013-01-01

    Previously observed twice-Clausius–Clapeyron (2CC) scaling for extreme precipitation at hourly time scales has led to discussions about its origin. The robustness of this scaling is assessed by analyzing a subhourly dataset of 10-min resolution over the Netherlands. The results confirm the validity

  4. How can hydrological modeling help to understand process dynamics in sparsely gauged tropical regions - case study Mata Âtlantica, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Künne, Annika; Penedo, Santiago; Schuler, Azeneth; Bardy Prado, Rachel; Kralisch, Sven; Flügel, Wolfgang-Albert

    2015-04-01

    To ensure long-term water security for domestic, agricultural and industrial use in the emerging country of Brazil with fast-growing markets and technologies, understanding of catchment hydrology is essential. Yet, hydrological analysis, high resolution temporal and spatial monitoring and reliable meteo-hydrological data are insufficient to fully understand hydrological processes in the region and to predict future trends. Physically based hydrological modeling can help to expose uncertainties of measured data, predict future trends and contribute to physical understanding about the watershed. The Brazilian Atlantic rainforest (Mata Atlântica) is one of the world's biodiversity hotspots. After the Portuguese colonization, its original expansion of 1.5 million km² was reduced to only 7% of the former area. Due to forest fragmentation, overexploitation and soil degradation, pressure on water resources in the region has significantly increased. Climatically, the region possesses distinctive wet and dry periods. While extreme precipitation events in the rainy season cause floods and landslides, dry periods can lead to water shortages, especially in the agricultural and domestic supply sectors. To ensure both, the protection of the remnants of Atlantic rainforest biome as well as water supply, a hydrological understanding of this sparsely gauged region is essential. We will present hydrological models of two meso- to large-scale catchments (Rio Macacu and Rio Dois Rios) within the Mata Âtlantica in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The results show how physically based models can contribute to hydrological system understanding within the region and answer what-if scenarios, supporting regional planners and decision makers in integrated water resources management.

  5. Nitrogen and phosphorus use efficiencies and losses in the food chain in China at regional scales in 1980 and 2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, L; Velthof, G L; Wang, F H; Qin, W; Zhang, W F; Liu, Z; Zhang, Y; Wei, J; Lesschen, J P; Ma, W Q; Oenema, O; Zhang, F S

    2012-09-15

    Crop and animal production in China has increased significantly during the last decades, but at the cost of large increases in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses, which contribute to ecosystem degradation and human health effects. This information is largely based on scattered field experiments, surveys and national statistics. As a consequence, there is as yet no comprehensive understanding of the changes in N and P cycling and losses at regional and national scales. Here, we present the results of an integrated assessment of the N and P use efficiencies (NUE and PUE) and N and P losses in the chain of crop and animal production, food processing and retail, and food consumption at regional scale in 1980 and 2005, using a uniform approach and databases. Our results show that the N and P costs of food production-consumption almost doubled between 1980 and 2005, but with large regional variation. The NUE and PUE of crop production decreased dramatically, while NUE and PUE in animal production increased. Interestingly, NUE and PUE of the food processing sector decreased from about 75% to 50%. Intake of N and P per capita increased, but again with large regional variation. Losses of N and P from agriculture to atmosphere and water bodies increased in most regions, especially in the east and south of the country. Highest losses were estimated for the Beijing and Tianjin metropolitan regions (North China), Pearl River Delta (South China) and Yangzi River Delta (East China). In conclusion, the changes and regional variations in NUE and PUE in the food chain of China are large and complex. Changes occurred in the whole crop and animal production, food processing and consumption chain, and were largest in the most populous areas between 1980 and 2005. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Quantifying the Impact of Tropospheric Ozone on Crops Productivity at regional scale using JULES-crop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, F.

    2016-12-01

    Tropospheric ozone (O3) is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. It is causing significant crop production losses. Currently, O3 concentrations are projected to increase globally, which could have a significant impact on food security. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) is used here to quantify the impacts of tropospheric O3 on crop production at the regional scale until 2100. We evaluate JULES-crop against the Soybean Free-Air-Concentration-Enrichment (SoyFACE) experiment in Illinois, USA. Experimental data from SoyFACE and various literature sources is used to calibrate the parameters for soybean and ozone damage parameters in soybean in JULES-crop. The calibrated model is then applied for a transient factorial set of JULES-crop simulations over 1960-2005. Simulated yield changes are attributed to individual environmental drivers, CO2, O3 and climate change, across regions and for different crops. A mixed scenario of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climatology and ozone are simulated to explore the implication of policy. The overall findings are that regions with high ozone concentration such as China and India suffer the most from ozone damage, soybean is more sensitive to O3 than other crops. JULES-crop predicts CO2 fertilisation would increase the productivity of vegetation. This effect, however, is masked by the negative impacts of tropospheric O3. Using data from FAO and JULES-crop estimated that ozone damage cost around 55.4 Billion USD per year on soybean. Irrigation improves the simulation of rice only, and it increases the relative ozone damage because drought can reduce the ozone from entering the plant stomata. RCP 8.5 scenario results in a high yield for all crops mainly due to the CO2 fertilisation effect. Mixed climate scenarios simulations suggest that RCP 8.5 CO2 concentration and RCP 2.6 O3 concentration result in the highest yield. Further works such as more crop FACE-O3 experiments and more Crop

  7. ‘Slow’ Revitalization on Regional Scale, the Example of an Integrated Investment Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazur-Belzyt, Katarzyna

    2017-10-01

    The study arose from question about the future of towns, as well as the possibility of their development. The paper is an attempt to look at the direction in which many towns around the world aim, connecting to a networks, and especially the network of Cittaslow. The author asked a few questions - whether the Cittaslow network actually helps towns to use their inner potential, build their brand and improve the quality of residents’ lifes? The starting point for the case study method adopted in the paper is a discussion of examples of urban networks as a background for a wider Cittaslow characteristic. For this purpose, there was conducted literature and in situ research on the Cittaslow towns, the query of documents related to Polish Cittaslow, own photographic documentation was collected and a series of talks were carried out in different offices and municipalities. The database constructed in this way, allowed the analysis and conclusions. An important part of the research was the synthesis of information on the integrated project which has been taken in 14 Polish Slow Cities. “The Cross-Local Programme of Revitalization of Cittaslow Town Network in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship” is a unique action on the scale of the entire international Cittaslow network. Each of the participating towns tried to exploit through revitalization its own unique potential for real growth and improve the quality of life of its residents. Through the joint action, even the smallest town could more easily obtain significant funding. The involvement of regional government and understanding of the idea was also crucial. Cittaslow network, although not perfect, may in the long term strengthen linkages and exchange of experience between the slow towns and not lead to their unification. Furthermore, as shown by the example of Polish “The Cross-Local Programme of Revitalization of Cittaslow Town Network in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship”, belonging to the Cittaslow network

  8. A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Gordon C.; Dickens, Chris; Hines, Eleanor; Wepener, Victor; Stassen, Retha; Quayle, Leo; Fouchy, Kelly; MacKenzie, James; Graham, P. Mark; Landis, Wayne G.

    2018-02-01

    Environmental flow (E-flow) frameworks advocate holistic, regional-scale, probabilistic E-flow assessments that consider flow and non-flow drivers of change in a socio-ecological context as best practice. Regional-scale ecological risk assessments of multiple stressors to social and ecological endpoints, which address ecosystem dynamism, have been undertaken internationally at different spatial scales using the relative-risk model since the mid-1990s. With the recent incorporation of Bayesian belief networks into the relative-risk model, a robust regional-scale ecological risk assessment approach is available that can contribute to achieving the best practice recommendations of E-flow frameworks. PROBFLO is a holistic E-flow assessment method that incorporates the relative-risk model and Bayesian belief networks (BN-RRM) into a transparent probabilistic modelling tool that addresses uncertainty explicitly. PROBFLO has been developed to evaluate the socio-ecological consequences of historical, current and future water resource use scenarios and generate E-flow requirements on regional spatial scales. The approach has been implemented in two regional-scale case studies in Africa where its flexibility and functionality has been demonstrated. In both case studies the evidence-based outcomes facilitated informed environmental management decision making, with trade-off considerations in the context of social and ecological aspirations. This paper presents the PROBFLO approach as applied to the Senqu River catchment in Lesotho and further developments and application in the Mara River catchment in Kenya and Tanzania. The 10 BN-RRM procedural steps incorporated in PROBFLO are demonstrated with examples from both case studies. PROBFLO can contribute to the adaptive management of water resources and contribute to the allocation of resources for sustainable use of resources and address protection requirements.

  9. Achieving scale strategically : understanding freight flows in regional food supply chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    The past several years have seen a rising interest in all things sustainable, from energy efficient homes : and vehicles, to alternative energy sources, to increasing focus on recyclable and renewable material : usage. This trend has also been accomp...

  10. Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions ASSAR Intro Presentation

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Mark New

    adaptation? • Where are the knowledge and capacity gaps in accessing, contextualizing and acting on climate information? • What new approaches can be developed to lead to more effective shaping and communication of climate messages? Understanding the governance context across scales will help to identify barriers ...

  11. Causal inference between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors in a large-scale region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yuqiong; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Qi; Yu, Huanyun; Liu, Jianfeng; Tian, Yu; Chang, Chunying; Lei, Jing

    2017-07-01

    The causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors are generally obtained from field experiments at local scales at present, and lack sufficient evidence from large scales. However, inferring causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions is challenging. Because the conventional correlation-based approaches used for causation assessments across large-scale regions, at the expense of actual causation, can result in spurious insights. In this study, a general approach framework, Intervention calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (IDA) combined with the backdoor criterion (BC), was introduced to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and the potential environmental factors across large-scale regions. We take the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China as a case study. The causal structures and effects were identified based on the concentrations of heavy metals (Zn, As, Cu, Hg, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd) in soil (0-20 cm depth) and vegetable (lettuce) and 40 environmental factors (soil properties, extractable heavy metals and weathering indices) in 94 samples across the PRD. Results show that the bioavailability of heavy metals (Cd, Zn, Cr, Ni and As) was causally influenced by soil properties and soil weathering factors, whereas no causal factor impacted the bioavailability of Cu, Hg and Pb. No latent factor was found between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors. The causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors at field experiments is consistent with that on a large scale. The IDA combined with the BC provides a powerful tool to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions. Causal inference in a large system with the dynamic changes has great implications for system-based risk management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All

  12. Understanding resilience of pastoralists to climate change and variability in the Southern Afar Region, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muluken Mekuyie

    Full Text Available Change in climate and climate extremes are acknowledged as a vital challenge to pastoral production systems. Alternative systems that are accessible to a household in order to make a living could determine the household’s resilience at a given point in time. This study was conducted in the Southern Afar region in Ethiopia to understand the resilience of pastoralists to climate change and variability. A household questionnaire survey and focus group discussions were employed to collect primary data at household level. A total of 250 pastoral households were sampled using stratified random sampling. The data obtained were analysed using descriptive statistics and principal component analysis. The resilience of households to climate shocks and stresses was determined using a two-step modelling approach by clustering households into livelihood groups, gender and districts. The results indicated that agro-pastoral households were more resilient than pastoralists to climate-induced shock. Furthermore, households in the Gewane district were more resilient than those in the Amibara district. Female-headed households were less resilient than male-headed households. Enhancing livestock assets and productivity, social safety nets, access to market, credit, extension services and education, improving irrigation crop farming, and providing farm inputs significantly enhanced the resilience of pastoralists to climate change and variability. Keywords: Asset, Livelihood, Climate shock, Pastoralist, Resilience

  13. Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malick, Michael J.; Cox, Sean P.

    2016-01-01

    Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC) with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65%) did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks) and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks). We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time. PMID:26760510

  14. Classification as a generic tool for characterising status and changes of regional scale groundwater systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthel, Roland; Haaf, Ezra

    2016-04-01

    Regional hydrogeology is becoming increasingly important, but at the same time, scientifically sound, universal solutions for typical groundwater problems encountered on the regional scale are hard to find. While managers, decision-makers and state agencies operating on regional and national levels have always shown a strong interest in regional scale hydrogeology, researchers from academia tend to avoid the subject, focusing instead on local scales. Additionally, hydrogeology has always had a tendency to regard every problem as unique to its own site- and problem-specific context. Regional scale hydrogeology is therefore pragmatic rather than aiming at developing generic methodology (Barthel, 2014; Barthel and Banzhaf, 2016). One of the main challenges encountered on the regional scale in hydrogeology is the extreme heterogeneity that generally increases with the size of the studied area - paired with relative data scarcity. Even in well-monitored regions of the world, groundwater observations are usually clustered, leaving large areas without any direct data. However, there are many good reasons for assessing the status and predicting the behavior of groundwater systems under conditions of global change even for those areas and aquifers without observations. This is typically done by using rather coarsely discretized and / or poorly parameterized numerical models, or by using very simplistic conceptual hydrological models that do not take into account the complex three-dimensional geological setup. Numerical models heavily rely on local data and are resource-demanding. Conceptual hydrological models only deliver reliable information on groundwater if the geology is extremely simple. In this contribution, we present an approach to derive statistically relevant information for un-monitored areas, making use of existing information from similar localities that are or have been monitored. The approach combines site-specific knowledge with conceptual assumptions on

  15. Forest dynamics in the temperate rainforests of Alaska: from individual tree to regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tara M. Barrett

    2015-01-01

    Analysis of remeasurement data from 1079 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots revealed multi-scale change occurring in the temperate rainforests of southeast Alaska. In the western half of the region, including Prince William Sound, aboveground live tree biomass and carbon are increasing at a rate of 8 ( ± 2 ) percent per decade, driven by an increase in Sitka...

  16. Representing major soil variability at regional scale by constrained Latin Hypercube Sampling of remote sensing data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, V.L.; Bruin, de S.; Schaepman, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a sparse, remote sensing-based sampling approach making use of conditioned Latin Hypercube Sampling (cLHS) to assess variability in soil properties at regional scale. The method optimizes the sampling scheme for a defined spatial population based on selected covariates, which are

  17. Towards the spatial coherence of biogeographical regionalizations at subcontinental and landscape scales

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Divíšek, Jan; Storch, D.; Zelený, D.; Culek, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 43, č. 43 (2016), s. 2489-2501 ISSN 0305-0270 Institutional support: RVO:68145535 Keywords : beta diversity * biogeographical regions * spatial scale Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 4.248, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jbi.12832/full

  18. Interacting Regional-Scale Regime Shifts for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leadley, P.; Proenca, V.; Fernandez-Manjarres, J.; Pereira, H.M.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Biggs, R.; Bruley, E.; Cheung, W.; Cooper, D.; Figueiredo, J.; Gilman, E.; Guenette, S.; Hurtt, G.; Mbow, C.; Oberdorff, T.; Revenga, C.; Scharlemann, J.P.W.; Scholes, R.; Smith, M.S.; Sumaila, U.R.; Walpole, M.

    2014-01-01

    Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human-environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are

  19. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis COSMO-REA2: Improving the representation of precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Wahl

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric reanalyses are a state-of-the-art tool to generate consistent and realistic state estimates of the atmospheric system. They provide a synthesis of various heterogeneous observational systems and model simulations using a physical model together with a data assimilation scheme. Current reanalyses are mainly global, while regional reanalyses are emerging for North America, the polar region, and most recently for Europe. However, deep convection is still parameterized even in the regional reanalyses. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis system for Central Europe (COSMO-REA2 has been developed by the Hans-Ertel Center for Weather Research – Climate Monitoring Branch. The system is based on the COSMO model and uses observational nudging for regional data assimilation. In addition to conventional observations, radar-derived rain rates are assimilated using latent heat nudging. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2 km, the model runs without parameterization of deep moist convection. COSMO-REA2 produces horizontal wind fields that represent a realistic energy spectrum for horizontal scales above 14 km. COSMO-REA2 is currently available for seven years from 2007 to 2013.This study illustrates the improved representation of local precipitation over Germany by the convective-scale reanalysis COSMO-REA2 compared to coarser gridded European and global reanalyses. A systematic verification using rain gauge data reveals the added value of high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalyses on different time scales. On monthly to annual time scales, regional reanalyses yield better estimates of the spatial variability of precipitation patterns which can not be provided by coarser gridded global models. On hourly to daily time scales, the convective-scale reanalysis substantially improves the representation of local precipitation in two ways. On the one hand, COSMO-REA2 shows an enhanced representation of observed frequencies of local

  20. Hydrologic connectivity between landscapes and streams: Transferring reach‐ and plot‐scale understanding to the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jencso, Kelsey G.; McGlynn, Brian L.; Gooseff, Michael N.; Wondzell, Steven M.; Bencala, Kenneth E.; Marshall, Lucy A.

    2009-01-01

    The relationship between catchment structure and runoff characteristics is poorly understood. In steep headwater catchments with shallow soils the accumulation of hillslope area (upslope accumulated area (UAA)) is a hypothesized first‐order control on the distribution of soil water and groundwater. Hillslope‐riparian water table connectivity represents the linkage between the dominant catchment landscape elements (hillslopes and riparian zones) and the channel network. Hydrologic connectivity between hillslope‐riparian‐stream (HRS) landscape elements is heterogeneous in space and often temporally transient. We sought to test the relationship between UAA and the existence and longevity of HRS shallow groundwater connectivity. We quantified water table connectivity based on 84 recording wells distributed across 24 HRS transects within the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (U.S. Forest Service), northern Rocky Mountains, Montana. Correlations were observed between the longevity of HRS water table connectivity and the size of each transect's UAA (r2 = 0.91). We applied this relationship to the entire stream network to quantify landscape‐scale connectivity through time and ascertain its relationship to catchment‐scale runoff dynamics. We found that the shape of the estimated annual landscape connectivity duration curve was highly related to the catchment flow duration curve (r2 = 0.95). This research suggests internal catchment landscape structure (topography and topology) as a first‐order control on runoff source area and whole catchment response characteristics.

  1. A Systematic Multi-Time Scale Solution for Regional Power Grid Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, W. J.; Liu, Z. G.; Cheng, T.; Hu, B. Q.; Liu, X. Z.; Zhou, Y. F.

    2017-10-01

    Many aspects need to be taken into consideration in a regional grid while making schedule plans. In this paper, a systematic multi-time scale solution for regional power grid operation considering large scale renewable energy integration and Ultra High Voltage (UHV) power transmission is proposed. In the time scale aspect, we discuss the problem from month, week, day-ahead, within-day to day-behind, and the system also contains multiple generator types including thermal units, hydro-plants, wind turbines and pumped storage stations. The 9 subsystems of the scheduling system are described, and their functions and relationships are elaborated. The proposed system has been constructed in a provincial power grid in Central China, and the operation results further verified the effectiveness of the system.

  2. Toward an understanding of foreground emission in the BICEP2 region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flauger, Raphael; Hill, J. Colin; Spergel, David N.

    2014-01-01

    BICEP2 has reported the detection of a degree-scale B-mode polarization pattern in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and has interpreted the measurement as evidence for primordial gravitational waves. Motivated by the profound importance of the discovery of gravitational waves from the early Universe, we examine to what extent a combination of Galactic foregrounds and lensed E-modes could be responsible for the signal. We reanalyze the BICEP2 results and show that the 100 ×150 GHz and 150 ×150 GHz data are consistent with a cosmology with r=0.2 and negligible foregrounds, but also with a cosmology with r=0 and a significant dust polarization signal. We give independent estimates of the dust polarization signal in the BICEP2 region using a number of different approaches: (1) data-driven models based on Planck 353 GHz intensity, polarization fractions inferred from the same Planck data used by the BICEP2 team but corrected for CMB and CIB contributions, and polarization angles from starlight polarization data or the Planck sky model; (2) the same set of pre-Planck models used by the BICEP2 team but taking into account the higher polarization fractions observed in the CMB- and CIB-corrected map; (3) a measurement of neutral hydrogen gas column density N HI in the BICEP2 region combined with an extrapolation of a relation between HI column density and dust polarization derived by Planck; and (4) a dust polarization map based on digitized Planck data, which we only use as a final cross-check. While these approaches are consistent with each other, the expected amplitude of the dust polarization power spectrum remains uncertain by about a factor of three. The lower end of the prediction leaves room for a primordial contribution, but at the higher end the dust in combination with the standard CMB lensing signal could account for the BICEP2 observations, without requiring the existence of primordial gravitational waves. By measuring the cross-correlations between the

  3. Understanding and Predicting Profile Structure and Parametric Scaling of Intrinsic Rotation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Weixing

    2016-10-01

    It is shown for the first time that turbulence-driven residual Reynolds stress can account for both the shape and magnitude of the observed intrinsic toroidal rotation profile. Nonlinear, global gyrokinetic simulations using GTS of DIII-D ECH plasmas indicate a substantial ITG fluctuation-induced non-diffusive momentum flux generated around a mid-radius-peaked intrinsic toroidal rotation profile. The non-diffusive momentum flux is dominated by the residual stress with a negligible contribution from the momentum pinch. The residual stress profile shows a robust anti-gradient, dipole structure in a set of ECH discharges with varying ECH power. Such interesting features of non-diffusive momentum fluxes, in connection with edge momentum sources and sinks, are found to be critical to drive the non-monotonic core rotation profiles in the experiments. Both turbulence intensity gradient and zonal flow ExB shear are identified as major contributors to the generation of the k∥-asymmetry needed for the residual stress generation. By balancing the residual stress and the momentum diffusion, a self-organized, steady-state rotation profile is calculated. The predicted core rotation profiles agree well with the experimentally measured main-ion toroidal rotation. The validated model is further used to investigate the characteristic dependence of global rotation profile structure in the multi-dimensional parametric space covering turbulence type, q-profile structure and collisionality with the goal of developing physics understanding needed for rotation profile control and optimization. Interesting results obtained include intrinsic rotation reversal induced by ITG-TEM transition in flat-q profile regime and by change in q-profile from weak to normal shear.. Fluctuation-generated poloidal Reynolds stress is also shown to significantly modify the neoclassical poloidal rotation in a way consistent with experimental observations. Finally, the first-principles-based model is applied

  4. Quantifying spatial scaling patterns and their local and regional correlates in headwater streams: implications for resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Göthe

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The distribution of functional traits within and across spatiotemporal scales has been used to quantify and infer the relative resilience across ecosystems. We use explicit spatial modeling to evaluate within- and cross-scale redundancy in headwater streams, an ecosystem type with a hierarchical and dendritic network structure. We assessed the cross-scale distribution of functional feeding groups of benthic invertebrates in Swedish headwater streams during two seasons. We evaluated functional metrics, i.e., Shannon diversity, richness, and evenness, and the degree of redundancy within and across modeled spatial scales for individual feeding groups. We also estimated the correlates of environmental versus spatial factors of both functional composition and the taxonomic composition of functional groups for each spatial scale identified. Measures of functional diversity and within-scale redundancy of functions were similar during both seasons, but both within- and cross-scale redundancy were low. This apparent low redundancy was partly attributable to a few dominant taxa explaining the spatial models. However, rare taxa with stochastic spatial distributions might provide additional information and should therefore be considered explicitly for complementing future resilience assessments. Otherwise, resilience may be underestimated. Finally, both environmental and spatial factors correlated with the scale-specific functional and taxonomic composition. This finding suggests that resilience in stream networks emerges as a function of not only local conditions but also regional factors such as habitat connectivity and invertebrate dispersal.

  5. Quantifying spatial scaling patterns and their local and regional correlates in headwater streams: Implications for resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gothe, Emma; Sandin, Leonard; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.

    2014-01-01

    The distribution of functional traits within and across spatiotemporal scales has been used to quantify and infer the relative resilience across ecosystems. We use explicit spatial modeling to evaluate within- and cross-scale redundancy in headwater streams, an ecosystem type with a hierarchical and dendritic network structure. We assessed the cross-scale distribution of functional feeding groups of benthic invertebrates in Swedish headwater streams during two seasons. We evaluated functional metrics, i.e., Shannon diversity, richness, and evenness, and the degree of redundancy within and across modeled spatial scales for individual feeding groups. We also estimated the correlates of environmental versus spatial factors of both functional composition and the taxonomic composition of functional groups for each spatial scale identified. Measures of functional diversity and within-scale redundancy of functions were similar during both seasons, but both within- and cross-scale redundancy were low. This apparent low redundancy was partly attributable to a few dominant taxa explaining the spatial models. However, rare taxa with stochastic spatial distributions might provide additional information and should therefore be considered explicitly for complementing future resilience assessments. Otherwise, resilience may be underestimated. Finally, both environmental and spatial factors correlated with the scale-specific functional and taxonomic composition. This finding suggests that resilience in stream networks emerges as a function of not only local conditions but also regional factors such as habitat connectivity and invertebrate dispersal.

  6. Understanding environmental and climatic influences on regional differences and spatio-temporalscale issues of dengue fever transmission in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serman, E. A.; Akanda, A. S. S.; Ginsberg, H. S.; Couret, J.

    2015-12-01

    Each year, there are an estimated 50-100 million cases of dengue fever worldwide, roughly 30 times the number of cases as 50 years ago, with some estimates even higher. Puerto Rico (PR) has experienced epidemic dengue activity since 1963, and the disease is currently endemic. Since 1990 there have been 4 large epidemics, the most recent in 2010 where there were nearly 27,000 cases reported, amounting to almost 1% of the island's total population. Because no vaccine is currently available, effective control is dependent on our ability to understand the complex relationship between environmental factors, mosquito vector ecology, and disease epidemiology. Dengue virus is transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, as humans are the preferred host for Ae. aegypti. The purpose of our analysis is to assess temporal and spatial patterns of dengue transmission in PR and relate this to both climatic and anthropogenic factors. Unlike past studies, which have used San Juan to represent the island as a whole, our research will investigate regional dynamics in dengue transmission, as preliminary results have shown significant differences in population density, disease incidence, and environmental and climatic variables. Data from the Passive Dengue Surveillance System of CDC, meteorological observations from NCDC, and remote sensing data from USGS and NASA will be used together to identify relationships between climate, urbanization, and dengue incidence for PR at various spatial and temporal scales. Preliminary climatic factors considered include precipitation, temperature, humidity, and soil moisture. Finally, we will assess measures of urbanization such as land cover, land use, population density, and infrastructure that can make regional differences in dengue incidence each year. Results from this study could help create early warning systems for dengue surveillance in Puerto Rico, and develop techniques that can be applied to other areas of the world.

  7. Hydraulic properties and scale effects investigation in regional rock aquifers, south-western Quebec, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nastev, M.; Savard, M. M.; Lapcevic, P.; Lefebvre, R.; Martel, R.

    This paper reports on the characterization of hydraulic properties of regional rock aquifers carried out within a groundwater resources assessment project in the St. Lawrence Lowlands of south-western Quebec. To understand the aquifer behavior at both the fracture level and at field scale, hydraulic investigations were carried out using various aquifer tests. The groundwater flow at the local scale is controlled mostly by the fracture system. Results of the constant-head injection tests show a weak decreasing trend of hydraulic conductivity with depth indicating that a major part of the groundwater flow occurs in the first meters of the rock sequence. At the regional scale, the equivalent porous media approach is applicable. The hydraulic conductivity measurements were correlated to the scale of the aquifer tests expressed with the investigated aquifer volume. A simple interpolation procedure for the hydraulic conductivity field was developed based on the distance between field measurements and the tested aquifer volumes. The regional distribution of the hydraulic conductivity for the major fractured aquifer units indicates that dolostone is the most permeable whereas sandstone and crystalline rocks are the least permeable units. Este artículo trata de la caracterización de las propiedades hidráulicas en acuíferos regionales rocosos, la cual se llevó a cabo dentro del proyecto de evaluación de los recursos de agua subterránea en St. Lawrence Lowlands al suroeste de Quebec. Para entender el comportamiento del acuífero tanto a nivel de fractura como a escala del campo, se ejecutaron investigaciones hidráulicas usando varias pruebas de acuífero. El flujo del agua subterránea a escala local está controlado principalmente por el sistema de fracturas. Los resultados de las pruebas de inyección con cabeza constante muestran una tendencia decreciente débil de la conductividad hidráulica con la profundidad, indicando que la mayor parte del flujo de agua

  8. Spectral classification of medium-scale high-latitude F region plasma density irregularities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, M.; Rodriguez, P.; Szuszczewicz, E.P.; Sachs Freeman Associates, Bowie, MD)

    1985-01-01

    The high-latitude ionosphere represents a highly structured plasma. Rodriguez and Szuszczewicz (1984) reported a wide range of plasma density irregularities (150 km to 75 m) at high latitudes near 200 km. They have shown that the small-scale irregularities (7.5 km to 75 m) populated the dayside oval more often than the other phenomenological regions. It was suggested that in the lower F region the chemical recombination is fast enough to remove small-scale irregularities before convection can transport them large distances, leaving structured particle precipitation as the dominant source term for irregularities. The present paper provides the results of spectral analyses of pulsed plasma probe data collected in situ aboard the STP/S3-4 satellite during the period March-September 1978. A quantitative description of irregularity spectra in the high-latitude lower F region plasma density is given. 22 references

  9. Hybrid inversions of CO2 fluxes at regional scale applied to network design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kountouris, Panagiotis; Gerbig, Christoph; -Thomas Koch, Frank

    2013-04-01

    Long term observations of atmospheric greenhouse gas measuring stations, located at representative regions over the continent, improve our understanding of greenhouse gas sources and sinks. These mixing ratio measurements can be linked to surface fluxes by atmospheric transport inversions. Within the upcoming years new stations are to be deployed, which requires decision making tools with respect to the location and the density of the network. We are developing a method to assess potential greenhouse gas observing networks in terms of their ability to recover specific target quantities. As target quantities we use CO2 fluxes aggregated to specific spatial and temporal scales. We introduce a high resolution inverse modeling framework, which attempts to combine advantages from pixel based inversions with those of a carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS). The hybrid inversion system consists of the Lagrangian transport model STILT, the diagnostic biosphere model VPRM and a Bayesian inversion scheme. We aim to retrieve the spatiotemporal distribution of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at a high spatial resolution (10 km x 10 km) by inverting for spatially and temporally varying scaling factors for gross ecosystem exchange (GEE) and respiration (R) rather than solving for the fluxes themselves. Thus the state space includes parameters for controlling photosynthesis and respiration, but unlike in a CCDAS it allows for spatial and temporal variations, which can be expressed as NEE(x,y,t) = λG(x,y,t) GEE(x,y,t) + λR(x,y,t) R(x,y,t) . We apply spatially and temporally correlated uncertainties by using error covariance matrices with non-zero off-diagonal elements. Synthetic experiments will test our system and select the optimal a priori error covariance by using different spatial and temporal correlation lengths on the error statistics of the a priori covariance and comparing the optimized fluxes against the 'known truth'. As 'known truth' we use independent fluxes

  10. Forest landscape models, a tool for understanding the effect of the large-scale and long-term landscape processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; Robert E. Keane; Louis R. Iverson

    2008-01-01

    Forest landscape models have become important tools for understanding large-scale and long-term landscape (spatial) processes such as climate change, fire, windthrow, seed dispersal, insect outbreak, disease propagation, forest harvest, and fuel treatment, because controlled field experiments designed to study the effects of these processes are often not possible (...

  11. Estimating regional-scale methane flux and budgets using CARVE aircraft measurements over Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hartery

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Methane (CH4 is the second most important greenhouse gas but its emissions from northern regions are still poorly constrained. In this study, we analyze a subset of in situ CH4 aircraft observations made over Alaska during the growing seasons of 2012–2014 as part of the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE. Net surface CH4 fluxes are estimated using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model which quantitatively links surface emissions from Alaska and the western Yukon with observations of enhanced CH4 in the mixed layer. We estimate that between May and September, net CH4 emissions from the region of interest were 2.2 ± 0.5 Tg, 1.9 ± 0.4 Tg, and 2.3 ± 0.6 Tg of CH4 for 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. If emissions are only attributed to two biogenic eco-regions within our domain, then tundra regions were the predominant source, accounting for over half of the overall budget despite only representing 18 % of the total surface area. Boreal regions, which cover a large part of the study region, accounted for the remainder of the emissions. Simple multiple linear regression analysis revealed that, overall, CH4 fluxes were largely driven by soil temperature and elevation. In regions specifically dominated by wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 10 cm depth were important explanatory variables while in regions that were not wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 40 cm depth were more important, suggesting deeper methanogenesis in drier soils. Although similar environmental drivers have been found in the past to control CH4 emissions at local scales, this study shows that they can be used to generate a statistical model to estimate the regional-scale net CH4 budget.

  12. Estimating regional-scale methane flux and budgets using CARVE aircraft measurements over Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartery, Sean; Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Sweeney, Colm; Henderson, John; Mountain, Marikate; Steiner, Nicholas; McDonald, Kyle; Dinardo, Steven J.; Miller, Charles E.; Wofsy, Steven C.; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.

    2018-01-01

    Methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas but its emissions from northern regions are still poorly constrained. In this study, we analyze a subset of in situ CH4 aircraft observations made over Alaska during the growing seasons of 2012-2014 as part of the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE). Net surface CH4 fluxes are estimated using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model which quantitatively links surface emissions from Alaska and the western Yukon with observations of enhanced CH4 in the mixed layer. We estimate that between May and September, net CH4 emissions from the region of interest were 2.2 ± 0.5 Tg, 1.9 ± 0.4 Tg, and 2.3 ± 0.6 Tg of CH4 for 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. If emissions are only attributed to two biogenic eco-regions within our domain, then tundra regions were the predominant source, accounting for over half of the overall budget despite only representing 18 % of the total surface area. Boreal regions, which cover a large part of the study region, accounted for the remainder of the emissions. Simple multiple linear regression analysis revealed that, overall, CH4 fluxes were largely driven by soil temperature and elevation. In regions specifically dominated by wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 10 cm depth were important explanatory variables while in regions that were not wetlands, soil temperature and moisture at 40 cm depth were more important, suggesting deeper methanogenesis in drier soils. Although similar environmental drivers have been found in the past to control CH4 emissions at local scales, this study shows that they can be used to generate a statistical model to estimate the regional-scale net CH4 budget.

  13. Understanding National Trajectories of Regionalism Through Legitimate, Political and Administrative Capital

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Peter Wilgaard; Ferry, Martin

    2015-01-01

    ,2002 & Tomaney, 2002), New Regionalism (Bukve, 2005; Söderbaum et al, 2005; Wheeler, 2002; Tomaney et al,2002; Webb & Collis, 2000 & Hettne, 1999), New Italian Regionalism (Salone, 2010), English Regionalism(Mawson, 2007 & Bond, 2004), City-regionalism (Harrison, 2012 & 2010) or Fragmented Regionalism...... for newthoughts. Stage 2 and 3 gives policy entrepreneurs the opportunity of airing solutions on experienced problemsand realise ideas. At stage 4, institutional elements are created to institutionalise the chosen idea of thepreceding stages. To reach stage 5’s full institutionalisation, the institution...

  14. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  15. DEVELOPMENT OF MSW COLLECTION SERVICES ON REGIONAL SCALE: SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND URBAN DISPARITIES IN NORTH-EAST REGION, ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FLORIN-CONSTANTIN MIHAI

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The cities are facing illegal dumping of municipal solid waste (MSW because the waste collection facilities do not cover the entire population. Furthermore, this sector is poorly developed in small towns or villages annexed to administrative territory units (ATU of cities , MSW are disposed in open dumps polluting the local environment. This paper analyzes on the one hand the urban disparities on public access to waste collection services (WCS in the North-East Region on the other hand, it performs a comparative analysis between 2003 and 2010 outlining the changes made in the context of Romania’s accession to EU. Also, it performs a quantitative assessment method of uncollected waste at urban level and correlated to demographic features of each city. Spatial-temporal analysis of waste indicators using thematic cartography or GIS techniques should be a basic tool for environmental monitoring or assessment of projects from this field in every development region (NUTS 2. The EU acquis requires the closure of noncompliant landfills, the extension of waste collection services, the development of facilities for separate collection, recycling and reuse according to waste hierarchy concept. Full coverage of urban population to waste collection services is necessary to provide a proper management of this sector. Urban disparities between counties and within counties highlights that current traditional waste management system is an environmental threat at local and regional scale.

  16. Dynamics of Multi-Scale Intra-Provincial Regional Inequality in Zhejiang, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenze Yue

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates regional inequality in a multi-scale framework, using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, based on the per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP of counties and municipalities within the Zhejiang province in China between the years of 1990 and 2010. A Spatial Markov Chain is used to identify the dynamics of regional wealth disparity in Zhejiang. The results show that the regional inequality of Zhejiang is sensitive to the geographic scale of the analysis. In addition, the inter-county inequality shows an inverted-U shape pattern. At the same time, the inter-municipality inequality displays a more consistently upward trend, and the evolution of the interregional inequality is relatively stable over time. The regional inequality is more significant at finer (larger spatial scales. The decomposition of the Theil Index shows that the contribution of the inequalities between Northeast Zhejiang and Southwest Zhejiang increased. The increasingly larger values of the Global Moran’s I show that there is an intensifying spatial aggregation of economic development. The comparison of the traditional Markov transition matrix and the Spatial Markov transition matrix illustrates how the relative wealth or poverty of neighboring counties make a significance difference in wealth in a given county as measured using domestic GDP per capita in Zhejiang province. This space-time analysis is valuable for policy making towards sustainable economic development in China given the soaring spatial inequality.

  17. Ear Detection under Uncontrolled Conditions with Multiple Scale Faster Region-Based Convolutional Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Zhang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Ear detection is an important step in ear recognition approaches. Most existing ear detection techniques are based on manually designing features or shallow learning algorithms. However, researchers found that the pose variation, occlusion, and imaging conditions provide a great challenge to the traditional ear detection methods under uncontrolled conditions. This paper proposes an efficient technique involving Multiple Scale Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Networks (Faster R-CNN to detect ears from 2D profile images in natural images automatically. Firstly, three regions of different scales are detected to infer the information about the ear location context within the image. Then an ear region filtering approach is proposed to extract the correct ear region and eliminate the false positives automatically. In an experiment with a test set of 200 web images (with variable photographic conditions, 98% of ears were accurately detected. Experiments were likewise conducted on the Collection J2 of University of Notre Dame Biometrics Database (UND-J2 and University of Beira Interior Ear dataset (UBEAR, which contain large occlusion, scale, and pose variations. Detection rates of 100% and 98.22%, respectively, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  18. Understanding the Complexity of Temperature Dynamics in Xinjiang, China, from Multitemporal Scale and Spatial Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianhua Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the observed data from 51 meteorological stations during the period from 1958 to 2012 in Xinjiang, China, we investigated the complexity of temperature dynamics from the temporal and spatial perspectives by using a comprehensive approach including the correlation dimension (CD, classical statistics, and geostatistics. The main conclusions are as follows (1 The integer CD values indicate that the temperature dynamics are a complex and chaotic system, which is sensitive to the initial conditions. (2 The complexity of temperature dynamics decreases along with the increase of temporal scale. To describe the temperature dynamics, at least 3 independent variables are needed at daily scale, whereas at least 2 independent variables are needed at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. (3 The spatial patterns of CD values at different temporal scales indicate that the complex temperature dynamics are derived from the complex landform.

  19. Understanding Emerging Impacts and Requirements Related to Utility-Scale Solar Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartmann, Heidi M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Grippo, Mark A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Heath, Garvin A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Macknick, Jordan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Smith, Karen P. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sullivan, Robert G. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Walston, Leroy J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wescott, Konstance L. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Utility-scale solar energy plays an important role in the nation’s strategy to address climate change threats through increased deployment of renewable energy technologies, and both the federal government and individual states have established specific goals for increased solar energy development. In order to achieve these goals, much attention is paid to making utility-scale solar energy cost-competitive with other conventional energy sources, while concurrently conducting solar development in an environmentally sound manner.

  20. Understanding the faint red galaxy population using large-scale clustering measurements from SDSS DR7

    OpenAIRE

    Ross, Ashley; Tojeiro, Rita; Percival, Will

    2011-01-01

    We use data from the SDSS to investigate the evolution of the large-scale galaxy bias as a function of luminosity for red galaxies. We carefully consider correlation functions of galaxies selected from both photometric and spectroscopic data, and cross-correlations between them, to obtain multiple measurements of the large-scale bias. We find, for our most robust analyses, a strong increase in bias with luminosity for the most luminous galaxies, an intermediate regime where bias does not evol...

  1. Scale size and life time of energy conversion regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hamrin

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, and in a companion paper by Hamrin et al. (2009 [Occurrence and location of concentrated load and generator regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet], we investigate localized energy conversion regions (ECRs in Earth's plasma sheet. From more than 80 Cluster plasma sheet crossings (660 h data at the altitude of about 15–20 RE in the summer and fall of 2001, we have identified 116 Concentrated Load Regions (CLRs and 35 Concentrated Generator Regions (CGRs. By examining variations in the power density, E·J, where E is the electric field and J is the current density obtained by Cluster, we have estimated typical values of the scale size and life time of the CLRs and the CGRs. We find that a majority of the observed ECRs are rather stationary in space, but varying in time. Assuming that the ECRs are cylindrically shaped and equal in size, we conclude that the typical scale size of the ECRs is 2 RE≲ΔSECR≲5 RE. The ECRs hence occupy a significant portion of the mid altitude plasma sheet. Moreover, the CLRs appear to be somewhat larger than the CGRs. The life time of the ECRs are of the order of 1–10 min, consistent with the large scale magnetotail MHD simulations of Birn and Hesse (2005. The life time of the CGRs is somewhat shorter than for the CLRs. On time scales of 1–10 min, we believe that ECRs rise and vanish in significant regions of the plasma sheet, possibly oscillating between load and generator character. It is probable that at least some of the observed ECRs oscillate energy back and forth in the plasma sheet instead of channeling it to the ionosphere.

  2. Outer region scaling using the freestream velocity for nonuniform open channel flow over gravel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Robert L.; Fox, James F.

    2017-06-01

    The theoretical basis for outer region scaling using the freestream velocity for nonuniform open channel flows over gravel is derived and tested for the first time. Owing to the gradual expansion of the flow within the nonuniform case presented, it is hypothesized that the flow can be defined as an equilibrium turbulent boundary layer using the asymptotic invariance principle. The hypothesis is supported using similarity analysis to derive a solution, followed by further testing with experimental datasets. For the latter, 38 newly collected experimental velocity profiles across three nonuniform flows over gravel in a hydraulic flume are tested as are 43 velocity profiles previously published in seven peer-reviewed journal papers that focused on fluid mechanics of nonuniform open channel over gravel. The findings support the nonuniform flows as equilibrium defined by the asymptotic invariance principle, which is reflective of the consistency of the turbulent structure's form and function within the expanding flow. However, roughness impacts the flow structure when comparing across the published experimental datasets. As a secondary objective, we show how previously published mixed scales can be used to assist with freestream velocity scaling of the velocity deficit and thus empirically account for the roughness effects that extend into the outer region of the flow. One broader finding of this study is providing the theoretical context to relax the use of the elusive friction velocity when scaling nonuniform flows in gravel bed rivers; and instead to apply the freestream velocity. A second broader finding highlighted by our results is that scaling of nonuniform flow in gravel bed rivers is still not fully resolved theoretically since mixed scaling relies to some degree on empiricism. As researchers resolve the form and function of macroturbulence in the outer region, we hope to see the closing of this research gap.

  3. Regional scales of fire danger rating in the forest: improved technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Volokitina

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Wildland fires distribute unevenly in time and over area under the influence of weather and other factors. It is unfeasible to air patrol the whole forest area daily during a fire season as well as to keep all fire suppression forces constantly alert. Daily work and preparedness of forest fire protection services is regulated by the level of fire danger according to weather conditions (Nesterov’s index. PV-1 index, fire hazard class (Melekhov’s scale, regional scales (earlier called local scales. Unfortunately, there is still no unified comparable technique of making regional scales. As a result, it is difficult to maneuver forest fire protection resources, since the techniques currently used are not approved and not tested for their performance. They give fire danger rating incomparable even for neighboring regions. The paper analyzes the state-of-the-art in Russia and abroad. It is stated the irony is that with factors of fire danger measured quantitatively, the fire danger itself as a function has no quantitative expression. Thus, selection of an absolute criteria is of high importance for improvement of daily fire danger rating. On the example of the Chunsky forest ranger station (Krasnoyarsk Krai, an improved technique is suggested of making comparable local scales of forest fire danger rating based on an absolute criterion of fire danger rating – a probable density of active fires per million ha. A method and an algorithm are described of automatized local scales of fire danger that should facilitate effective creation of similar scales for any forest ranger station or aviation regional office using a database on forest fires and weather conditions. The information system of distant monitoring by Federal Forestry Agency of Russia is analyzed for its application in making local scales. To supplement the existing weather station net it is suggested that automatic compact weather stations or, if the latter is not possible, simple

  4. Socio-ecological Typologies for Understanding Adaptive Capacity of a Region to Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.

    2015-12-01

    It is expected that the frequency and magnitude of extreme climatic events will increase in coming decades with an anticipated increase in losses from climate hazards. In the Gulf Coastal region of the United States, climate hazards/disasters are common including hurricanes, drought and flooding. However, the capacity to adapt to extreme climatic events varies across the region. This adaptive capacity is linked to the magnitude of the extreme event, exposed infrastructure, and the socio-economic conditions across the region. This study uses hierarchical clustering to quantitatively integrates regional socioeconomic and biophysical factors and develop socio-ecological typologies (SET). The biophysical factors include climatic and topographic variables, and the socio-economic variables include human capital, social capital and man-made resources (infrastructure) of the region. The types of the SET are independent variables in a statistical model of a regional variable of interest. The methodology was applied to US Gulf States to evaluate the social and biophysical determinants of the regional variation in social vulnerability and economic loss to climate hazards. The results show that the SET explains much of the regional variation in social vulnerability, effectively capturing its determinants. In addition, the SET also explains of the variability in economic loss to hazards across of the region. The approach can thus be used to prioritize adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability and loss across the region.

  5. Regional contamination versus regional dietary differences: Understanding geographic variation in brominated and chlorinated contaminant levels in polar bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, M.A.; Letcher, R.J.; Aars, Jon; Born, E.W.; Branigan, M.; Dietz, R.; Evans, T.J.; Gabrielsen, G.W.; Muir, D.C.G.; Peacock, E.; Sonne, C.

    2011-01-01

    The relative contribution of regional contamination versus dietary differences to geographic variation in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) contaminant levels is unknown. Dietary variation between Alaska Canada, East Greenland, and Svalbard subpopulations was assessed by muscle nitrogen and carbon stable isotope (?? 15N, ?? 13C) and adipose fatty acid (FA) signatures relative to their main prey (ringed seals). Western and southern Hudson Bay signatures were characterized by depleted ?? 15N and ??13C, lower proportions of C20 and C22 monounsaturated FAs and higher proportions of C18 and longer chain polyunsaturated FAs. East Greenland and Svalbard signatures were reversed relative to Hudson Bay. Alaskan ?? 2011 American Chemical Society.

  6. Developments in regional scale simulation: modelling ecologically sustainable development in the Northern Territory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moffatt, I.

    1992-01-01

    This paper outlines one way in which researchers can make a positive methodological contribution to the debate on ecologically sustainable development (ESD) by integrating dynamic modelling and geographical information systems to form the basis for regional scale simulations. Some of the orthodox uses of Geographic Information System (GIS) are described and it is argued that most applications do not incorporate process based causal models. A description of a pilot study into developing a processed base model of ESD in the Northern Territory is given. This dynamic process based simulation model consists of two regions namely the 'Top End' and the 'Central' district. Each region consists of ten sub-sectors and the pattern of land use represents a common sector to both regions. The role of environmental defence expenditure, including environmental rehabilitation of uranium mines, in the model is noted. Similarly, it is hypothesized that the impact of exogenous changes such as the greenhouse effect and global economic fluctuations can have a differential impact on the behaviour of several sectors of the model. Some of the problems associated with calibrating and testing the model are reviewed. Finally, it is suggested that further refinement of this model can be achieved with the pooling of data sets and the development of PC based transputers for more detailed and accurate regional scale simulations. When fully developed it is anticipated that this pilot model can be of service to environmental managers and other groups involved in promoting ESD in the Northern Territory. 54 refs., 6 figs

  7. Insights on the Understanding of the Circum-Caribbean Region from Potential Field Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Reyes, A.; Dyment, J.; Thebault, E.

    2017-12-01

    During decades, the nature, geometry and evolution of the Caribbean geological provinces and their boundaries have been topic of discussion and controversy. Great strike-slip faulting in the northern boundaries of the plate, and folding and thrusting structures related with Cretaceous magmatism have been used as indicators of the emplacement of the Caribbean plate between the Northamerican and Southamerican plates at least from the Late Cretaceous, which is the most accepted hypothesis. The exotic origin of the Caribbean plate has also been supported by presence of radiolarites, fauna, ages from rocks sampled from drilling and oceanic paleo-currents analyses. The high thickness of the sediments in most of the basins, the absence of drilling wells reaching the acoustic basement and the absence of identifiable patterns of magnetic anomalies constitute the limitations for the interpretation from potential field data. Potential field data allows tracking contrasts in the physical properties between two geological bodies if they are laterally exhibited. Hence its use is suitable to characterise the seafloor fabric but also to better delineate the boundaries between the geological provinces. In this research we are providing an interpretation from vertical gradients of gravity and reprocessed magnetic anomalies over the Caribbean region with the purpose of making a contribution to the understanding of this area. We are also using magnetic anomalies to determine the paleolatitude over those areas where seafloor spreading related anomalies are observed. Our results led us to propose a conceptual model of the origin of the Caribbean plate. Our model relates the Venezuelan basin with the Cretaceous `not-so-quite' magnetic isochrons; it proposes that the Colombian, Venezuelan and Grenada basins have oceanic crustal affinity and it reinterprets the Beata and Aves ridges as reactivated fracture zones - respectively - in which a magmatic event occurred during or after its

  8. Asymmetry of agricultural water consumption in arid regions during alternating decadal scale wet and dry periods: explanation using behavioral economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Fuqiang

    2017-04-01

    Increase of human water consumption for agriculture and consequent degradation of the ecological environment is a common feature in many arid regions. Understanding the driving mechanisms behind this phenomenon is of critical importance for regional sustainable development. In this study, analyses of temporal patterns of human water consumption are carried out in three hyper-arid inland basins, i.e., Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia, and the Tarim and Heihe River Basins in Northwestern China. Multi-decadal time series of hydrological and human consumption data are divided into decadal sequences of wet and dry years. During the wet phases, the greater water availability inspires economic expansion and human water consumption experiences growth at a rate faster than that of incoming water. During the dry phases, however, the expanded economy (e.g., irrigation land expansion in an agriculture-based economy) has been managed to sustain or even to increase production by over-exploitation of water with sophisticated technologies. Inability to reduce human water consumption at a rate commensurate with the decrease of incoming water supply leads to serious ecosystem degradation. This asymmetric human water consumption response of society to decadal scale hydrologic variability can be explained in terms of prospect theory drawn from behavioral economics, which states that people tend to be risk averse when facing gains and show risk preference when facing losses. In the three socio-hydrological case studies, direct economic gain/loss has relatively low value but high certainty when compared to indirect economic loss/gain (such as environmental or sustainability loss/gain), which has high value but with high uncertainty. According to prospect theory, people tend to gain direct economic benefits at the expense of environmental degradation and at the risk of system collapse. The outcomes of this study have major implications for water resources management at long time scales

  9. Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Agriculture on a Regional Scale

    OpenAIRE

    Agnieszka Wysocka-Czubaszek; Robert Czubaszek; Sławomir Roj-Rojewski; Piotr Banaszuk

    2018-01-01

    Nowadays, agriculture has to meet the growing food demand together with high requirements of environmental protection, especially regarding the climate change. The greenhouse gas emissions differ not only on a global, but also on a regional scale, and mitigation strategies are effective when they are adapted properly. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to present the results of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions inventory on a regional level in Poland in years 1999-2015. The CH4...

  10. Study on sandstorm PM10 exposure assessment in the large-scale region: a case study in Inner Mongolia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongmei; Lv, Shihai; Diao, Zhaoyan; Wang, Baolu; Zhang, Han; Yu, Caihong

    2018-04-12

    The current exposure-effect curves describing sandstorm PM 10 exposure and the health effects are drawn roughly by the outdoor concentration (OC), which ignored the exposure levels of people's practical activity sites. The main objective of this work is to develop a novel approach to quantify human PM 10 exposure by their socio-categorized micro-environment activities-time weighed (SCMEATW) in strong sandstorm period, which can be used to assess the exposure profiles in the large-scale region. Types of people's SCMEATW were obtained by questionnaire investigation. Different types of representatives were trackly recorded during the big sandstorm. The average exposure levels were estimated by SCMEATW. Furthermore, the geographic information system (GIS) technique was taken not only to simulate the outdoor concentration spatially but also to create human exposure outlines in a visualized map simultaneously, which could help to understand the risk to different types of people. Additionally, exposure-response curves describing the acute outpatient rate odds by sandstorm were formed by SCMEATW, and the differences between SCMEATW and OC were compared. Results indicated that acute outpatient rate odds had relationships with PM 10 exposure from SCMEATW, with a level less than that of OC. Some types of people, such as herdsmen and those people walking outdoors during a strong sandstorm, have more risk than office men. Our findings provide more understanding of human practical activities on their exposure levels; they especially provide a tool to understand sandstorm PM 10 exposure in large scale spatially, which might help to perform the different categories population's risk assessment regionally.

  11. Constraining the global carbon budget from global to regional scales - The measurement challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francey, R.J.; Rayner, P.J.; Allison, C.E.

    2002-01-01

    The Global Carbon Cycle can be modelled by a Bayesian synthesis inversion technique, where measured atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and isotopic compositions are analysed by use of an atmospheric transport model and estimates of regional sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon. The uncertainty associated to carbon flux estimates even on a regional scale can be improved considerably using the inversion technique. In this approach, besides the necessary control on the precision of atmospheric transport models and on the constraints for surface fluxes, an important component is the calibration of atmospheric CO 2 concentration and isotope measurements. The recent improved situation in respect to data comparability is discussed using results of conducted interlaboratory comparison exercises and larger scale calibration programs are proposed for the future to further improve the comparability of analytical data. (author)

  12. Using GPS and GRACE data to assess Solid Earth elastic parameters at regional scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Borghi, A.; Aoudia, A.

    2012-01-01

    We propose a way to combine GPS and GRACE data for regional scale cross check and validation especially of the most commonly used PREM (Preliminary Earth Reference Model). In form of h and k Love numbers, global PREM is very often used to simulate elastic rebound due to present-day ice mass loss......, to derive the mass distribution produced by the observed GRACE time series, and it is also used for atmospheric loading correction both in GPS and in GRACE dealiasing products. GRACE data provide load estimates, usually given as water equivalent mass distribution, from which one derives the Earth elastic...... response, by convolution with suitable elastic green functions, relying on selected Earth model and related layering and elastic parameters. We calculate at regional scale the time series of monthly uplift associated with the mass redistribution observed by GRACE implementing the high resolution technique...

  13. Contextual Multi-Scale Region Convolutional 3D Network for Activity Detection

    KAUST Repository

    Bai, Yancheng

    2018-01-28

    Activity detection is a fundamental problem in computer vision. Detecting activities of different temporal scales is particularly challenging. In this paper, we propose the contextual multi-scale region convolutional 3D network (CMS-RC3D) for activity detection. To deal with the inherent temporal scale variability of activity instances, the temporal feature pyramid is used to represent activities of different temporal scales. On each level of the temporal feature pyramid, an activity proposal detector and an activity classifier are learned to detect activities of specific temporal scales. Temporal contextual information is fused into activity classifiers for better recognition. More importantly, the entire model at all levels can be trained end-to-end. Our CMS-RC3D detector can deal with activities at all temporal scale ranges with only a single pass through the backbone network. We test our detector on two public activity detection benchmarks, THUMOS14 and ActivityNet. Extensive experiments show that the proposed CMS-RC3D detector outperforms state-of-the-art methods on THUMOS14 by a substantial margin and achieves comparable results on ActivityNet despite using a shallow feature extractor.

  14. Contextual Multi-Scale Region Convolutional 3D Network for Activity Detection

    KAUST Repository

    Bai, Yancheng; Xu, Huijuan; Saenko, Kate; Ghanem, Bernard

    2018-01-01

    Activity detection is a fundamental problem in computer vision. Detecting activities of different temporal scales is particularly challenging. In this paper, we propose the contextual multi-scale region convolutional 3D network (CMS-RC3D) for activity detection. To deal with the inherent temporal scale variability of activity instances, the temporal feature pyramid is used to represent activities of different temporal scales. On each level of the temporal feature pyramid, an activity proposal detector and an activity classifier are learned to detect activities of specific temporal scales. Temporal contextual information is fused into activity classifiers for better recognition. More importantly, the entire model at all levels can be trained end-to-end. Our CMS-RC3D detector can deal with activities at all temporal scale ranges with only a single pass through the backbone network. We test our detector on two public activity detection benchmarks, THUMOS14 and ActivityNet. Extensive experiments show that the proposed CMS-RC3D detector outperforms state-of-the-art methods on THUMOS14 by a substantial margin and achieves comparable results on ActivityNet despite using a shallow feature extractor.

  15. Matching soil grid unit resolutions with polygon unit scales for DNDC modelling of regional SOC pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H. D.; Yu, D. S.; Ni, Y. L.; Zhang, L. M.; Shi, X. Z.

    2015-03-01

    Matching soil grid unit resolution with polygon unit map scale is important to minimize uncertainty of regional soil organic carbon (SOC) pool simulation as their strong influences on the uncertainty. A series of soil grid units at varying cell sizes were derived from soil polygon units at the six map scales of 1:50 000 (C5), 1:200 000 (D2), 1:500 000 (P5), 1:1 000 000 (N1), 1:4 000 000 (N4) and 1:14 000 000 (N14), respectively, in the Tai lake region of China. Both format soil units were used for regional SOC pool simulation with DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) process-based model, which runs span the time period 1982 to 2000 at the six map scales, respectively. Four indices, soil type number (STN) and area (AREA), average SOC density (ASOCD) and total SOC stocks (SOCS) of surface paddy soils simulated with the DNDC, were attributed from all these soil polygon and grid units, respectively. Subjecting to the four index values (IV) from the parent polygon units, the variation of an index value (VIV, %) from the grid units was used to assess its dataset accuracy and redundancy, which reflects uncertainty in the simulation of SOC. Optimal soil grid unit resolutions were generated and suggested for the DNDC simulation of regional SOC pool, matching with soil polygon units map scales, respectively. With the optimal raster resolution the soil grid units dataset can hold the same accuracy as its parent polygon units dataset without any redundancy, when VIV indices was assumed as criteria to the assessment. An quadratic curve regression model y = -8.0 × 10-6x2 + 0.228x + 0.211 (R2 = 0.9994, p < 0.05) was revealed, which describes the relationship between optimal soil grid unit resolution (y, km) and soil polygon unit map scale (1:x). The knowledge may serve for grid partitioning of regions focused on the investigation and simulation of SOC pool dynamics at certain map scale.

  16. Regional and landscape-scale variability of Landsat-observed vegetation dynamics in northwest Siberian tundra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frost, Gerald V; Epstein, Howard E; Walker, Donald A

    2014-01-01

    Widespread increases in Arctic tundra productivity have been documented for decades using coarse-scale satellite observations, but finer-scale observations indicate that changes have been very uneven, with a high degree of landscape- and regional-scale heterogeneity. Here we analyze time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observed by Landsat (1984–2012), to assess landscape- and regional-scale variability of tundra vegetation dynamics in the northwest Siberian Low Arctic, a little-studied region with varied soils, landscape histories, and permafrost attributes. We also estimate spatio-temporal rates of land-cover change associated with expansion of tall alder (Alnus) shrublands, by integrating Landsat time-series with very-high-resolution imagery dating to the mid-1960s. We compiled Landsat time-series for eleven widely-distributed landscapes, and performed linear regression of NDVI values on a per-pixel basis. We found positive net NDVI trends (‘greening’) in nine of eleven landscapes. Net greening occurred in alder shrublands in all landscapes, and strong greening tended to correspond to shrublands that developed since the 1960s. Much of the spatial variability of greening within landscapes was linked to landscape physiography and permafrost attributes, while between-landscape variability largely corresponded to differences in surficial geology. We conclude that continued increases in tundra productivity in the region are likely in upland tundra landscapes with fine-textured, cryoturbated soils; these areas currently tend to support discontinuous vegetation cover, but are highly susceptible to rapid increases in vegetation cover, as well as land-cover changes associated with the development of tall shrublands. (paper)

  17. Evaluation of performance of seasonal precipitation prediction at regional scale over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, U. C.; Nageswararao, M. M.; Sinha, P.; Nair, A.; Singh, A.; Rai, R. K.; Kar, S. C.; Ramesh, K. J.; Singh, K. K.; Ghosh, K.; Rathore, L. S.; Sharma, R.; Kumar, A.; Dhekale, B. S.; Maurya, R. K. S.; Sahoo, R. K.; Dash, G. P.

    2018-03-01

    The seasonal scale precipitation amount is an important ingredient in planning most of the agricultural practices (such as a type of crops, and showing and harvesting schedules). India being an agroeconomic country, the seasonal scale prediction of precipitation is directly linked to the socioeconomic growth of the nation. At present, seasonal precipitation prediction at regional scale is a challenging task for the scientific community. In the present study, an attempt is made to develop multi-model dynamical-statistical approach for seasonal precipitation prediction at the regional scale (meteorological subdivisions) over India for four prominent seasons which are winter (from December to February; DJF), pre-monsoon (from March to May; MAM), summer monsoon (from June to September; JJAS), and post-monsoon (from October to December; OND). The present prediction approach is referred as extended range forecast system (ERFS). For this purpose, precipitation predictions from ten general circulation models (GCMs) are used along with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall analysis data from 1982 to 2008 for evaluation of the performance of the GCMs, bias correction of the model results, and development of the ERFS. An extensive evaluation of the performance of the ERFS is carried out with dependent data (1982-2008) as well as independent predictions for the period 2009-2014. In general, the skill of the ERFS is reasonably better and consistent for all the seasons and different regions over India as compared to the GCMs and their simple mean. The GCM products failed to explain the extreme precipitation years, whereas the bias-corrected GCM mean and the ERFS improved the prediction and well represented the extremes in the hindcast period. The peak intensity, as well as regions of maximum precipitation, is better represented by the ERFS than the individual GCMs. The study highlights the improvement of forecast skill of the ERFS over 34 meteorological subdivisions

  18. A comparative study of two approaches to analyse groundwater recharge, travel times and nitrate storage distribution at a regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkeltaub, T.; Ascott, M.; Gooddy, D.; Jia, X.; Shao, M.; Binley, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding deep percolation, travel time processes and nitrate storage in the unsaturated zone at a regional scale is crucial for sustainable management of many groundwater systems. Recently, global hydrological models have been developed to quantify the water balance at such scales and beyond. However, the coarse spatial resolution of the global hydrological models can be a limiting factor when analysing regional processes. This study compares simulations of water flow and nitrate storage based on regional and global scale approaches. The first approach was applied over the Loess Plateau of China (LPC) to investigate the water fluxes and nitrate storage and travel time to the LPC groundwater system. Using raster maps of climate variables, land use data and soil parameters enabled us to determine fluxes by employing Richards' equation and the advection - dispersion equation. These calculations were conducted for each cell on the raster map in a multiple 1-D column approach. In the second approach, vadose zone travel times and nitrate storage were estimated by coupling groundwater recharge (PCR-GLOBWB) and nitrate leaching (IMAGE) models with estimates of water table depth and unsaturated zone porosity. The simulation results of the two methods indicate similar spatial groundwater recharge, nitrate storage and travel time distribution. Intensive recharge rates are located mainly at the south central and south west parts of the aquifer's outcrops. Particularly low recharge rates were simulated in the top central area of the outcrops. However, there are significant discrepancies between the simulated absolute recharge values, which might be related to the coarse scale that is used in the PCR-GLOBWB model, leading to smoothing of the recharge estimations. Both models indicated large nitrate inventories in the south central and south west parts of the aquifer's outcrops and the shortest travel times in the vadose zone are in the south central and east parts of the

  19. The Limits of Polycentrism at the City-regional Scale: The case of Luxembourg

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoine Decoville

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Over the last fifteen years, promoters of the European spatial planning policy have presented polycentrism as the most promising strategy for answering the challenge of a more even spatial development. However, there is still no empirical evidence proving that this conceptual tool is adaptable to all scales. In this paper, we propose two different approaches of urban hierarchy with regards to its capacity to structure spatial development at a city-regional scale: the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. The first one depicts a classical urban hierarchy based on the location of urban amenities. The second one, which takes into account the accessibility to these amenities, shows the polycentric model in a more nuanced manner. Our results underline the differences between these two models and call for caution with respect to the adoption of the polycentric model at this spatial scale, since it could potentially lead to an increase in urban sprawl.

  20. Algorithm 873: LSTRS: MATLAB Software for Large-Scale Trust-Region Subproblems and Regularization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas Larrazabal, Marielba de la Caridad; Santos, Sandra A.; Sorensen, Danny C.

    2008-01-01

    A MATLAB 6.0 implementation of the LSTRS method is resented. LSTRS was described in Rojas, M., Santos, S.A., and Sorensen, D.C., A new matrix-free method for the large-scale trust-region subproblem, SIAM J. Optim., 11(3):611-646, 2000. LSTRS is designed for large-scale quadratic problems with one...... at each step. LSTRS relies on matrix-vector products only and has low and fixed storage requirements, features that make it suitable for large-scale computations. In the MATLAB implementation, the Hessian matrix of the quadratic objective function can be specified either explicitly, or in the form...... of a matrix-vector multiplication routine. Therefore, the implementation preserves the matrix-free nature of the method. A description of the LSTRS method and of the MATLAB software, version 1.2, is presented. Comparisons with other techniques and applications of the method are also included. A guide...

  1. Modeling and validation of on-road CO2 emissions inventories at the urban regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brondfield, Max N.; Hutyra, Lucy R.; Gately, Conor K.; Raciti, Steve M.; Peterson, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    On-road emissions are a major contributor to rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. In this study, we applied a downscaling methodology based on commonly available spatial parameters to model on-road CO 2 emissions at the 1 × 1 km scale for the Boston, MA region and tested our approach with surface-level CO 2 observations. Using two previously constructed emissions inventories with differing spatial patterns and underlying data sources, we developed regression models based on impervious surface area and volume-weighted road density that could be scaled to any resolution. We found that the models accurately reflected the inventories at their original scales (R 2 = 0.63 for both models) and exhibited a strong relationship with observed CO 2 mixing ratios when downscaled across the region. Moreover, the improved spatial agreement of the models over the original inventories confirmed that either product represents a viable basis for downscaling in other metropolitan regions, even with limited data. - Highlights: ► We model two on-road CO 2 emissions inventories using common spatial parameters. ► Independent CO 2 observations are used to validate the emissions models. ► The downscaled emissions models capture the urban spatial heterogeneity of Boston. ► Emissions estimates show a strong non-linear relationship with observed CO 2 . ► Our study is repeatable, even in areas with limited data. - This work presents a new, reproducible methodology for downscaling and validating on-road CO 2 emissions estimates.

  2. Understanding water delivery performance in a large-scale irrigation system in Peru

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, J.M.C.

    2005-01-01

    During a two-year field study the performance of the water delivery was evaluated in a large-scale irrigation system on the north coast of Peru. Flow measurements were carried out along the main canals, along two secondary canals, and in two tertiary blocks in the Chancay-Lambayeque irrigation

  3. Broadband Structural Dynamics: Understanding the Impulse-Response of Structures Across Multiple Length and Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-18

    Spectral domain response calculated • Time domain response obtained through inverse transform Approach 4: WASABI Wavelet Analysis of Structural Anomalies...differences at unity scale! Time Function Transform Apply Spectral Domain Transfer Function Time Function Inverse Transform Transform Transform  mtP

  4. Sandy Point Fun Run: A Context for Understanding and Using Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roche, Anne

    2013-01-01

    In the middle years of school, it is important that mathematics is challenging, engaging and focuses on worthwhile mathematics. In this article, Anne Roche describes a lesson that seemed to have all three of these characteristics, as students grappled with issues of scale to create a fun run, given a range of challenging mathematical constraints.…

  5. The Moral Self-Image Scale: Measuring and Understanding the Malleability of the Moral Self.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Jennifer; Leliveld, Marijke C; Tenbrunsel, Ann E

    2015-01-01

    Recent ethical decision-making models suggest that individuals' own view of their morality is malleable rather than static, responding to their (im)moral actions and reflections about the world around them. Yet no construct currently exists to represent the malleable state of a person's moral self-image (MSI). In this investigation, we define this construct, as well as develop a scale to measure it. Across five studies, we show that feedback about the moral self alters an individual's MSI as measured by our scale. We also find that the MSI is related to, but distinct from, related constructs, including moral identity, self-esteem, and moral disengagement. In Study 1, we administered the MSI scale and several other relevant scales to demonstrate convergent and discriminant validity. In Study 2, we examine the relationship between the MSI and one's ought versus ideal self. In Studies 3 and 4, we find that one's MSI is affected in the predicted directions by manipulated feedback about the moral self, including feedback related to social comparisons of moral behavior (Study 3) and feedback relative to one's own moral ideal (Study 4). Lastly, Study 5 provides evidence that the recall of one's moral or immoral behavior alters people's MSI in the predicted directions. Taken together, these studies suggest that the MSI is malleable and responds to individuals' moral and immoral actions in the outside world. As such, the MSI is an important variable to consider in the study of moral and immoral behavior.

  6. A Coupled fcGCM-GCE Modeling System: A 3D Cloud Resolving Model and a Regional Scale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2005-01-01

    Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and ore sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (21CE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicity calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generation regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A Brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications), and (4) The characteristics of the four-dimensional cloud data

  7. A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System, and a Regional Scale Model to Study Precipitation Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2007-01-01

    Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a superparameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (2ICE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generatio11 regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).

  8. Regional processes in mangrove ecosystems: Spatial scaling relationships, biomass, and turnover rates following catastrophic disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, G.A.; Smith, T. J.; Whelan, K.R.T.; Doyle, T.W.

    2006-01-01

    Physiological processes and local-scale structural dynamics of mangroves are relatively well studied. Regional-scale processes, however, are not as well understood. Here we provide long-term data on trends in structure and forest turnover at a large scale, following hurricane damage in mangrove ecosystems of South Florida, U.S.A. Twelve mangrove vegetation plots were monitored at periodic intervals, between October 1992 and March 2005. Mangrove forests of this region are defined by a -1.5 scaling relationship between mean stem diameter and stem density, mirroring self-thinning theory for mono-specific stands. This relationship is reflected in tree size frequency scaling exponents which, through time, have exhibited trends toward a community average that is indicative of full spatial resource utilization. These trends, together with an asymptotic standing biomass accumulation, indicate that coastal mangrove ecosystems do adhere to size-structured organizing principles as described for upland tree communities. Regenerative dynamics are different between areas inside and outside of the primary wind-path of Hurricane Andrew which occurred in 1992. Forest dynamic turnover rates, however, are steady through time. This suggests that ecological, more-so than structural factors, control forest productivity. In agreement, the relative mean rate of biomass growth exhibits an inverse relationship with the seasonal range of porewater salinities. The ecosystem average in forest scaling relationships may provide a useful investigative tool of mangrove community biomass relationships, as well as offer a robust indicator of general ecosystem health for use in mangrove forest ecosystem management and restoration. ?? Springer 2006.

  9. Multi scale Disaster Risk Reduction Systems Space and Community based Experiences over HKH Region

    OpenAIRE

    Gurung, D. R.; Shrestha, M.; Shrestha, N.; Debnath, B.; Jishi, G.; Bajracharya, R.; Dhonju, H. K.; Pradhan, S.

    2014-01-01

    An increasing trend in the recurrence of natural disasters and associated impacts due to Floods, Glacier Lake out bursts, landslides and forest fire is reported over Hindu Kush Himalyan (HKH) region. Climate change and anthropogenic coupled factors are identified as primary factors for such increased vulnerability. The large degree of poverty, lack of infrastructure, poor accessibility and uncertainties involved in understanding high altitude land surface and climate dynamics poses s...

  10. From Fancy to Reason: Scaling Deaf and Hearing Children’s Understanding of Theory of Mind and Pretence

    OpenAIRE

    Peterson, Candida C.; Wellman, Henry M.

    2009-01-01

    We examined deaf and hearing children’s progression of steps in theory-of-mind (ToM) development including their understanding of social pretending. Ninety-three children (33 deaf; 60 hearing) aged 3 to 13 years were tested on a set of six closely-matched ToM tasks. Results showed that deaf children were delayed substantially behind hearing children in understanding pretending, false belief and other ToM concepts, in line with their delayed uptake of social pretend play. By using a scaling me...

  11. From Fancy to Reason: Scaling Deaf and Hearing Children's Understanding of Theory of Mind and Pretence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Candida C.; Wellman, Henry M.

    2009-01-01

    We examined deaf and hearing children's progression of steps in theory of mind (ToM) development including their understanding of social pretending. Ninety-three children (33 deaf; 60 hearing) aged 3-13 years were tested on a set of six closely matched ToM tasks. Results showed that deaf children were delayed substantially behind hearing children…

  12. Beyond the Shadow of a Trait: Understanding Discounting through Item-Level Analysis of Personality Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlton, Shawn R.; Gossett, Bradley D.; Charlton, Veda A.

    2011-01-01

    Temporal discounting, the loss in perceived value associated with delayed outcomes, correlates with a number of personality measures, suggesting that an item-level analysis of trait measures might provide a more detailed understanding of discounting. The current report details two studies that investigate the utility of such an item-level…

  13. Estimation and applicability of attenuation characteristics for source parameters and scaling relations in the Garhwal Kumaun Himalaya region, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Rakesh; Paul, Ajay; Kumar, Arjun; Kumar, Parveen; Sundriyal, Y. P.

    2018-06-01

    Source parameters of the small to moderate earthquakes are significant for understanding the dynamic rupture process, the scaling relations of the earthquakes and for assessment of seismic hazard potential of a region. In this study, the source parameters were determined for 58 small to moderate size earthquakes (3.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.0) occurred during 2007-2015 in the Garhwal-Kumaun region. The estimated shear wave quality factor (Qβ(f)) values for each station at different frequencies have been applied to eliminate any bias in the determination of source parameters. The Qβ(f) values have been estimated by using coda wave normalization method in the frequency range 1.5-16 Hz. A frequency-dependent S wave quality factor relation is obtained as Qβ(f) = (152.9 ± 7) f(0.82±0.005) by fitting a power-law frequency dependence model for the estimated values over the whole study region. The spectral (low-frequency spectral level and corner frequency) and source (static stress drop, seismic moment, apparent stress and radiated energy) parameters are obtained assuming ω-2 source model. The displacement spectra are corrected for estimated frequency-dependent attenuation, site effect using spectral decay parameter "Kappa". The frequency resolution limit was resolved by quantifying the bias in corner frequencies, stress drop and radiated energy estimates due to finite-bandwidth effect. The data of the region shows shallow focused earthquakes with low stress drop. The estimation of Zúñiga parameter (ε) suggests the partial stress drop mechanism in the region. The observed low stress drop and apparent stress can be explained by partial stress drop and low effective stress model. Presence of subsurface fluid at seismogenic depth certainly manipulates the dynamics of the region. However, the limited event selection may strongly bias the scaling relation even after taking as much as possible precaution in considering effects of finite bandwidth, attenuation and site corrections

  14. Lake nutrient stoichiometry is less predictable than nutrient concentrations at regional and sub-continental scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Sarah M; Oliver, Samantha K; Lapierre, Jean-Francois; Stanley, Emily H; Jones, John R; Wagner, Tyler; Soranno, Patricia A

    2017-07-01

    Production in many ecosystems is co-limited by multiple elements. While a known suite of drivers associated with nutrient sources, nutrient transport, and internal processing controls concentrations of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in lakes, much less is known about whether the drivers of single nutrient concentrations can also explain spatial or temporal variation in lake N:P stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry might be more complex than predicting concentrations of individual elements because some drivers have similar relationships with N and P, leading to a weak relationship with their ratio. Further, the dominant controls on elemental concentrations likely vary across regions, resulting in context dependent relationships between drivers, lake nutrients and their ratios. Here, we examine whether known drivers of N and P concentrations can explain variation in N:P stoichiometry, and whether explaining variation in stoichiometry differs across regions. We examined drivers of N:P in ~2,700 lakes at a sub-continental scale and two large regions nested within the sub-continental study area that have contrasting ecological context, including differences in the dominant type of land cover (agriculture vs. forest). At the sub-continental scale, lake nutrient concentrations were correlated with nutrient loading and lake internal processing, but stoichiometry was only weakly correlated to drivers of lake nutrients. At the regional scale, drivers that explained variation in nutrients and stoichiometry differed between regions. In the Midwestern U.S. region, dominated by agricultural land use, lake depth and the percentage of row crop agriculture were strong predictors of stoichiometry because only phosphorus was related to lake depth and only nitrogen was related to the percentage of row crop agriculture. In contrast, all drivers were related to N and P in similar ways in the Northeastern U.S. region, leading to weak relationships between drivers and stoichiometry

  15. Risk-based prioritization of ground water threatening point sources at catchment and regional scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overheu, Niels Døssing; Tuxen, Nina; Flyvbjerg, John

    2014-01-01

    framework has been developed to enable a systematic and transparent risk assessment and prioritization of contaminant point sources, considering the local, catchment, or regional scales (Danish EPA, 2011, 2012). The framework has been tested in several catchments in Denmark with different challenges...... and needs, and two of these are presented. Based on the lessons learned, the Danish EPA has prepared a handbook to guide the user through the steps in a risk-based prioritization (Danish EPA, 2012). It provides guidance on prioritization both in an administratively defined area such as a Danish Region...... of the results are presented using the case studies as examples. The methodology was developed by a broad industry group including the Danish EPA, the Danish Regions, the Danish Nature Agency, the Technical University of Denmark, and consultants — and the framework has been widely accepted by the professional...

  16. The Role of Remote Sensing for Understanding Large-Scale Rubber Concession Expansion in Southern Laos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutlu Özdoğan

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Increasing global demand for natural rubber began in the mid-2000s and led to large-scale expansion of plantations in Laos until rubber latex prices declined greatly beginning in 2011. The expansion of rubber did not, however, occur uniformly across the country. While the north and central Laos experienced mostly local and smallholder plantations, rubber expansion in the south was dominated by transnational companies from Vietnam, China and Thailand through large-scale land concessions, often causing conflicts with local communities. In this study we use satellite remote sensing to identify and map the expansion of large-scale rubber plantations in Champasak Province—the first area in southern Laos to host large-scale rubber development—and document the biophysical impacts on the local landscape, which of course is linked to social impacts on local people. Our study demonstrates that the expansion of rubber in the province was rapid and did not always conform to approved concession area locations. The mono-culture nature of rubber plantations also had the effect of homogenizing the landscape, eclipsing the changes caused by local populations. We argue that by providing a relatively inexpensive way to track the expansion of rubber plantations over space and time, remote sensing has the potential to provide advocates and other civil society groups with data that might otherwise remain limited to the restricted domains of state regulation and private sector reporting. However, we also caution that while remote sensing has the potential to provide strong public evidence about plantation expansion, access to and control of this information ultimately determines its value.

  17. The Moral Self-Image Scale: Measuring and Understanding the Malleability of the Moral Self

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer eJordan

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent ethical decision-making models suggest that individuals’ own view of their morality is malleable rather than static, responding to their (immoral actions and reflections about the world around them. Yet no construct currently exists to represent the malleable state of a person’s moral self-image (MSI. In this investigation, we define this construct, as well as develop a scale to measure it. Across five studies, we show that feedback about the moral self alters an individual’s MSI as measured by our scale. We also find that MSI is related to, but distinct from, related constructs, including moral identity, self-esteem, and moral disengagement. In Study 1, we administered the MSI scale and several other relevant scales to demonstrate convergent and discriminant validity. In Study 2, we examine the relationship between the MSI and one’s ought versus ideal self. In Studies 3 and 4, we find that one’s MSI is affected in the predicted directions by manipulated feedback about the moral self, including feedback related to social comparisons of moral behavior (Study 3 and feedback relative to one’s own moral ideal (Study 4. Lastly, Study 5 provides evidence that the recall of one’s moral or immoral behavior alters people’s MSI in the predicted directions. Taken together, these studies suggest that the MSI is malleable and responds to individuals’ moral and immoral actions in the outside world. As such, the MSI is an important variable to consider in the study of moral and immoral behavior.

  18. Regional Understanding and Unity of Effort: Applying the Global SOF Network in Future Operating Environments Communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-07

    disrupt terrorist networks COL Christopher Varhola, USAR has a Ph.D. in Cultural Anthropology and is a Joint Special Operations University Senior Fellow...conflict, where building relations and empowering regional states and organizations are logical remedies and are rightly a key ele- ment of U.S. diplomatic...grow- ing regional powers and organizations .6 As a result, U.S. freedom of action is reduced and requires coordination and permission from partner

  19. A regional-scale assessment of local renewable energy resources in Cumbria, UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gormally, A.M.; Whyatt, J.D.; Timmis, R.J.; Pooley, C.G.

    2012-01-01

    There is increasing focus on the role small-scale decentralised renewable energy developments could play in helping the UK meet its target of over 15% renewable energy by the year 2020 and alter energy behaviours through active community engagement. Upland areas are considered key areas where such community-based developments could occur due to their natural resources and range of community scales. This study uses GIS-based techniques to develop a methodology that assesses the regional-scale potential for community-based renewable electricity across Cumbria and whether a combination of these developments at the community-scale could make a significant contribution to local electricity consumption. This methodology looks at a range of technologies including hydro-power, wind-power, solar PV and bioenergy. The results suggest there is ample resource available for small communities by combining a mix of localised renewable electricity developments, which is highlighted through energy scenarios for a selected community. Further work will investigate whether this potential can be realised in reality by looking at resource resilience and community-level acceptability. - Highlights: ► A mix of wind, solar, bioenergy and hydro-power options are presented for Cumbria, UK. ► High resolution spatial analysis is conducted focussing on localised developments. ► Locations with sufficient renewable electricity potential were identified. ► Renewable options are explored further through a town case study. ► Scenarios consider different scales, mixes and contributions to local energy demand.

  20. Methodology for Air Quality Forecast Downscaling from Regional- to Street-Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Mahura, Alexander; Amstrup, Bjarne; Hansen Saas, Bent; Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Lorenzen, Thomas; Weismann, Jakob

    2010-05-01

    The most serious air pollution events occur in cities where there is a combination of high population density and air pollution, e.g. from vehicles. The pollutants can lead to serious human health problems, including asthma, irritation of the lungs, bronchitis, pneumonia, decreased resistance to respiratory infections, and premature death. In particular air pollution is associated with increase in cardiovascular disease and lung cancer. In 2000 WHO estimated that between 2.5 % and 11 % of total annual deaths are caused by exposure to air pollution. However, European-scale air quality models are not suited for local forecasts, as their grid-cell is typically of the order of 5 to 10km and they generally lack detailed representation of urban effects. Two suites are used in the framework of the EC FP7 project MACC (Monitoring of Atmosphere Composition and Climate) to demonstrate how downscaling from the European MACC ensemble to local-scale air quality forecast will be carried out: one will illustrate capabilities for the city of Copenhagen (Denmark); the second will focus on the city of Bucharest (Romania). This work is devoted to the first suite, where methodological aspects of downscaling from regional (European/ Denmark) to urban scale (Copenhagen), and from the urban down to street scale. The first results of downscaling according to the proposed methodology are presented. The potential for downscaling of European air quality forecasts by operating urban and street-level forecast models is evaluated. This will bring a strong support for continuous improvement of the regional forecast modelling systems for air quality in Europe, and underline clear perspectives for the future regional air quality core and downstream services for end-users. At the end of the MACC project, requirements on "how-to-do" downscaling of European air-quality forecasts to the city and street levels with different approaches will be formulated.

  1. Dealing with natural hazards in the Barcelonnette region - a multi-disciplinary collaboration from understanding to management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappes, Melanie; Frigerio, Simone; Luna, Byron Quan; Traveletti, Julien; Spickermann, Anke; Krzeminska, Dominika; Angignard, Marjory

    2010-05-01

    The Barcelonnette area, part of the Ubaye-Valley in the South French Alps, is highly exposed to natural hazard (mudslides, debris flows, torrential floods, river floods, avalanches and rockfalls); La Valette, Poche, Super-Sauze, Faucon are examples of well-known risk settings studied by scientists for several decades. In the framework of the Mountain Risks network, young researchers are working on different steps and aspects of the protection of the communities. It requires the collaboration of experts from different disciplines assembling the "living with risk" chain that has to cover the identification of the hazard, the risk assessment, risk management and the socio-economic and political decision-making. On the example of the Barcelonnette region, this work demonstrates such a multi-disciplinary cooperation within the Mountain Risks project. Starting with a multi-hazard analysis on a medium-scale level (1:10.000-1:50.000) for an overview over the hotspots in the basin a link is established to the local level analyses going into more detail. To forecast potential landslides in black marls and to assess the risk it is important to know the mechanisms leading to failure and the mechanisms determining subsequent movement. With respect to the Super-Sauze and La Valette mudslides detailed monitoring of hydrological features (i.e. high resolution temperature observations, large and medium scale infiltration experiments), displacement monitoring for short and long term kinematics analysis (i.e. image correlation technique applied on terrestrial oblique optical image, aerial and terrestrial laser scanning survey, differential global positioning system), small-scale testing in the laboratory (i.e. standard geotechnical, flume and centrifuge tests) and numerical modelling are performed to understand the mechanisms that might trigger and control the landslide. Integration and interpretation of these multi-source data allow to constrain conceptual models which are essential

  2. ActivityNet: A Large-Scale Video Benchmark for Human Activity Understanding

    KAUST Repository

    Heilbron, Fabian Caba

    2015-06-02

    In spite of many dataset efforts for human action recognition, current computer vision algorithms are still severely limited in terms of the variability and complexity of the actions that they can recognize. This is in part due to the simplicity of current benchmarks, which mostly focus on simple actions and movements occurring on manually trimmed videos. In this paper we introduce ActivityNet, a new largescale video benchmark for human activity understanding. Our benchmark aims at covering a wide range of complex human activities that are of interest to people in their daily living. In its current version, ActivityNet provides samples from 203 activity classes with an average of 137 untrimmed videos per class and 1.41 activity instances per video, for a total of 849 video hours. We illustrate three scenarios in which ActivityNet can be used to compare algorithms for human activity understanding: untrimmed video classification, trimmed activity classification and activity detection.

  3. Understanding Greenland ice sheet hydrology using an integrated multi-scale approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rennermalm, A K; Moustafa, S E; Mioduszewski, J; Robinson, D A; Chu, V W; Smith, L C; Forster, R R; Hagedorn, B; Harper, J T; Mote, T L; Shuman, C A; Tedesco, M

    2013-01-01

    Improved understanding of Greenland ice sheet hydrology is critically important for assessing its impact on current and future ice sheet dynamics and global sea level rise. This has motivated the collection and integration of in situ observations, model development, and remote sensing efforts to quantify meltwater production, as well as its phase changes, transport, and export. Particularly urgent is a better understanding of albedo feedbacks leading to enhanced surface melt, potential positive feedbacks between ice sheet hydrology and dynamics, and meltwater retention in firn. These processes are not isolated, but must be understood as part of a continuum of processes within an integrated system. This letter describes a systems approach to the study of Greenland ice sheet hydrology, emphasizing component interconnections and feedbacks, and highlighting research and observational needs. (letter)

  4. ActivityNet: A Large-Scale Video Benchmark for Human Activity Understanding

    KAUST Repository

    Heilbron, Fabian Caba; Castillo, Victor; Ghanem, Bernard; Niebles, Juan Carlos

    2015-01-01

    In spite of many dataset efforts for human action recognition, current computer vision algorithms are still severely limited in terms of the variability and complexity of the actions that they can recognize. This is in part due to the simplicity of current benchmarks, which mostly focus on simple actions and movements occurring on manually trimmed videos. In this paper we introduce ActivityNet, a new largescale video benchmark for human activity understanding. Our benchmark aims at covering a wide range of complex human activities that are of interest to people in their daily living. In its current version, ActivityNet provides samples from 203 activity classes with an average of 137 untrimmed videos per class and 1.41 activity instances per video, for a total of 849 video hours. We illustrate three scenarios in which ActivityNet can be used to compare algorithms for human activity understanding: untrimmed video classification, trimmed activity classification and activity detection.

  5. [Acceptance and understandability of various methods of health valuations for the chronically ill: willingness to pay, visual analogue scale and rating scale].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meder, M; Farin, E

    2009-11-01

    Health valuations are one way of measuring patient preferences with respect to the results of their treatment. The study examines three different methods of health valuations--willingness to pay (WTP), visual analogue scale (VAS), and a rating question for evaluating the subjective significance. The goal is to test the understandability and acceptance of these methods for implementation in questionnaires. In various rehabilitation centres, a total of six focus groups were conducted with 5-9 patients each with a mean age of 57.1 years. The illnesses considered were chronic-ischaemic heart disease, chronic back pain, and breast cancer. Patients filled out a questionnaire that was then discussed in the group. In addition to the quantitative evaluation of the data in the questionnaire, a qualitative analysis of the contents of the group discussion protocols was made. We have results from a total of 42 patients. 14.6% of the patients had "great difficulties" understanding the WTP or rated it as "completely incomprehensible"; this value was 7.3% for VAS and 0% for the rating scale. With respect to acceptance, 31.0% of the patients indicated that they were "not really" or "not at all" willing to answer such a WTP question in a questionnaire; this was 6.6% for the VAS, and again 0% for the rating scale. The qualitative analysis provided an indication as to why some patients view the WTP question in particular in a negative light. Many difficulties in understanding it were related to the formulation of the question and the structure of the questionnaire. However, the patients' statements also made it apparent that the hypothetical nature of the WTP questionnaire was not always recognised. The most frequent reason for the lack of acceptance of the WTP was the patients' fear of negative financial consequences of their responses. With respect to understandability and acceptance, VAS questions appear to be better suited for reflecting patient preferences than WTP questions. The

  6. Towards an understanding of career progression for female professors of nursing: a small scale study

    OpenAIRE

    Joyce, Maria

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to generate knowledge of career progression for women professors of nursing, an under researched topic, in order to understand how their professional and personal experiences may have influenced their aspirations and opportunities for career success. This qualitative study gave voice to a small group of women professors of nursing through individual narrative semi-structured interviews, a relatively under-used methodology. The findings are anticipated to have currenc...

  7. Macrosystems ecology: novel methods and new understanding of multi-scale patterns and processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Songlin Fei; Qinfeng Guo; Kevin Potter

    2016-01-01

    As the global biomes are increasingly threatened by human activities, understanding of macroscale patterns and processes is pressingly needed for effective management and policy making. Macrosystems ecology, which studies multiscale ecologicalpatterns and processes, has gained growing interest in the research community. However, as a relatively new field in...

  8. MURI: An Integrated Multi-Scale Approach for Understanding Ion Transport in Complex Heterogeneous Organic Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-30

    Thomas A. Witten,f Matthew W. Liberatore,a and Andrew M. Herring,a,* a Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering and bDepartment of Chemistry ...2) To fundamentally understand, with combined experimental and computational approaches, the interplay of chemistry , processing, and morphology on...Society, The International Society of Electrochemistry and The American Institute of Chemical Engineers to give oral and poster presentations. In

  9. Meta-modeling soil organic carbon sequestration potential and its application at regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Zhongkui; Wang, Enli; Bryan, Brett A; King, Darran; Zhao, Gang; Pan, Xubin; Bende-Michl, Ulrike

    2013-03-01

    Upscaling the results from process-based soil-plant models to assess regional soil organic carbon (SOC) change and sequestration potential is a great challenge due to the lack of detailed spatial information, particularly soil properties. Meta-modeling can be used to simplify and summarize process-based models and significantly reduce the demand for input data and thus could be easily applied on regional scales. We used the pre-validated Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate the impact of climate, soil, and management on SOC at 613 reference sites across Australia's cereal-growing regions under a continuous wheat system. We then developed a simple meta-model to link the APSIM-modeled SOC change to primary drivers, i.e., the amount of recalcitrant SOC, plant available water capacity of soil, soil pH, and solar radiation, temperature, and rainfall in the growing season. Based on high-resolution soil texture data and 8165 climate data points across the study area, we used the meta-model to assess SOC sequestration potential and the uncertainty associated with the variability of soil characteristics. The meta-model explained 74% of the variation of final SOC content as simulated by APSIM. Applying the meta-model to Australia's cereal-growing regions reveals regional patterns in SOC, with higher SOC stock in cool, wet regions. Overall, the potential SOC stock ranged from 21.14 to 152.71 Mg/ha with a mean of 52.18 Mg/ha. Variation of soil properties induced uncertainty ranging from 12% to 117% with higher uncertainty in warm, wet regions. In general, soils in Australia's cereal-growing regions under continuous wheat production were simulated as a sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide with a mean sequestration potential of 8.17 Mg/ha.

  10. Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Muñoz

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Ecological Niche Models (ENMs are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models. Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles. Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural

  11. Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Xavier; Felicísimo, Ángel M.

    2016-01-01

    Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models). Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude) were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species) and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles). Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural parks. PMID

  12. Estimating the size of the cavity and surrounding failed region for underground nuclear explosions from scaling rules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rogers, Leo A [El Paso Natural Gas Company (United States)

    1970-05-01

    The fundamental physical principles involved in the formation of an underground cavity by a nuclear explosion and breakage of the rock surrounding the cavity are examined from the point of view of making preliminary estimates of their sizes where there is a limited understanding of the rock characteristics. Scaling equations for cavity formation based on adiabatic expansion are reviewed and further developed to include the strength of the material surrounding the shot point as well as the overburden above the shot point. The region of rock breakage or permanent distortion surround ing the explosion generated cavity is estimated using both the Von Mises and Coulomb-Mohr failure criteria. It is found that the ratio of the rock failure radius to the cavity radius for these two criteria becomes independent of yield and dependent only on the failure mechanics of the rock. The analytical solutions developed for the Coulomb-Mohr and Von Mises criteria are presented in graphical form. (author)

  13. Multi-Scale Analysis of Regional Inequality based on Spatial Field Model: A Case Study of China from 2000 to 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shasha Lu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A large body of recent studies—from both inside and outside of China—are devoted to the understanding of China’s regional inequality. The current study introduces “the spatial field model” to achieve comprehensive evaluation and multi-scale analysis of regional inequality. The model is based on the growth pole theory, regional interaction theory, and energy space theory. The spatial field is an abstract concept that defines the potential energy difference that is formed in the process of a regional growth pole driving the economic development of peripheral areas through transportation and communication corridors. The model is able to provide potentially more precise regional inequality estimates and generates isarithmic maps that will provide highly intuitive and visualized presentations. The model is applied to evaluate the spatiotemporal pattern of economic inequality in China from 2000 to 2012 amongst internal eastern-central-western regions as well as north-south regions at three geographical scales—i.e., inter-province, inter-city, and inter-county. The results indicate that the spatial field model could comprehensively evaluate regional inequality, provide aesthetically pleasing and highly adaptable presentations based on a pixel-based raster, and realise the multi-scale analyses of the regional inequality. The paper also investigates the limitations and extensions of the spatial field model in future application.

  14. Using scaling relations to understand trends in the catalytic activity of transition metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, G; Bligaard, T; Abild-Pedersen, F; Noerskov, J K

    2008-01-01

    A method is developed to estimate the potential energy diagram for a full catalytic reaction for a range of late transition metals on the basis of a calculation (or an experimental determination) for a single metal. The method, which employs scaling relations between adsorption energies, is illustrated by calculating the potential energy diagram for the methanation reaction and ammonia synthesis for 11 different metals on the basis of results calculated for Ru. It is also shown that considering the free energy diagram for the reactions, under typical industrial conditions, provides additional insight into reactivity trends

  15. Large-scale wind power in New Brunswick : a regional scenario study towards 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-08-01

    This paper discussed the large-scale development of wind power in New Brunswick and evaluated Danish experiences with wind development as a template for developing wind resources in the Maritimes region. The study showed that New Brunswick and the Maritimes region have good wind resources, and that the province will gain significant economic benefits from deploying between 5500 and 7500 MW of wind power capacity by 2025. Wind power development will contribute to the security of supply in the region and reduce air pollution. Carbon regulation and renewable portfolio standards will improve the competitiveness of wind power. Electricity generated by wind power plants in the Maritimes can be sold to other provinces in Canada, as well as to the heavily populated New England region of the United States. A high level of cooperation between markets in the Maritimes area and neighbouring New England and Quebec systems will be required in addition to load flow analyses of electricity systems. Denmark's experiences with developing wind power indicate that existing market designs must be restructured to allow for higher levels of competition. A strong system operator is required to integrate wind power into the system. It was concluded that strong political leadership is required to ensure the sustainable development of the region. 5 refs., 4 tabs., 9 figs

  16. Scale size and life time of energy conversion regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hamrin

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, and in a companion paper by Hamrin et al. (2009 [Occurrence and location of concentrated load and generator regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet], we investigate localized energy conversion regions (ECRs in Earth's plasma sheet. From more than 80 Cluster plasma sheet crossings (660 h data at the altitude of about 15–20 RE in the summer and fall of 2001, we have identified 116 Concentrated Load Regions (CLRs and 35 Concentrated Generator Regions (CGRs. By examining variations in the power density, E·J, where E is the electric field and J is the current density obtained by Cluster, we have estimated typical values of the scale size and life time of the CLRs and the CGRs. We find that a majority of the observed ECRs are rather stationary in space, but varying in time. Assuming that the ECRs are cylindrically shaped and equal in size, we conclude that the typical scale size of the ECRs is 2 RE≲ΔSECR≲5 RE. The ECRs hence occupy a significant portion of the mid altitude plasma sheet. Moreover, the CLRs appear to be somewhat larger than the CGRs. The life time of the ECRs are of the order of 1–10 min, consistent with the large scale magnetotail MHD simulations of Birn and Hesse (2005. The life time of the CGRs is somewhat shorter than for the CLRs. On time scales of 1–10 min, we believe that ECRs rise and vanish in significant regions of the plasma sheet, possibly oscillating between load and generator character. It is probable that at least some of the observed ECRs oscillate energy back and forth in the plasma sheet instead of channeling it to the ionosphere.

  17. Estimation of regional-scale groundwater flow properties in the Bengal Basin of India and Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, H.A.; Voss, C.I.

    2009-01-01

    Quantitative evaluation of management strategies for long-term supply of safe groundwater for drinking from the Bengal Basin aquifer (India and Bangladesh) requires estimation of the large-scale hydrogeologic properties that control flow. The Basin consists of a stratified, heterogeneous sequence of sediments with aquitards that may separate aquifers locally, but evidence does not support existence of regional confining units. Considered at a large scale, the Basin may be aptly described as a single aquifer with higher horizontal than vertical hydraulic conductivity. Though data are sparse, estimation of regional-scale aquifer properties is possible from three existing data types: hydraulic heads, 14C concentrations, and driller logs. Estimation is carried out with inverse groundwater modeling using measured heads, by model calibration using estimated water ages based on 14C, and by statistical analysis of driller logs. Similar estimates of hydraulic conductivities result from all three data types; a resulting typical value of vertical anisotropy (ratio of horizontal to vertical conductivity) is 104. The vertical anisotropy estimate is supported by simulation of flow through geostatistical fields consistent with driller log data. The high estimated value of vertical anisotropy in hydraulic conductivity indicates that even disconnected aquitards, if numerous, can strongly control the equivalent hydraulic parameters of an aquifer system. ?? US Government 2009.

  18. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Ni, J, E-mail: nan.lu@utoledo.ed, E-mail: burkhard.wilske@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jni@ibcas.ac.c, E-mail: ranjeet.john@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jiquan.chen@utoledo.ed [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43, D-14473 Potsdam (Germany)

    2009-10-15

    This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

  19. Regional-scale lateral carbon transport and CO2 evasion in temperate stream catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magin, Katrin; Somlai-Haase, Celia; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Lorke, Andreas

    2017-11-01

    Inland waters play an important role in regional to global-scale carbon cycling by transporting, processing and emitting substantial amounts of carbon, which originate mainly from their catchments. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between terrestrial net primary production (NPP) and the rate at which carbon is exported from the catchments in a temperate stream network. The analysis included more than 200 catchment areas in southwest Germany, ranging in size from 0.8 to 889 km2 for which CO2 evasion from stream surfaces and downstream transport with stream discharge were estimated from water quality monitoring data, while NPP in the catchments was obtained from a global data set based on remote sensing. We found that on average 13.9 g C m-2 yr-1 (corresponding to 2.7 % of terrestrial NPP) are exported from the catchments by streams and rivers, in which both CO2 evasion and downstream transport contributed about equally to this flux. The average carbon fluxes in the catchments of the study area resembled global and large-scale zonal mean values in many respects, including NPP, stream evasion and the carbon export per catchment area in the fluvial network. A review of existing studies on aquatic-terrestrial coupling in the carbon cycle suggests that the carbon export per catchment area varies in a relatively narrow range, despite a broad range of different spatial scales and hydrological characteristics of the study regions.

  20. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J; Ni, J

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

  1. Scaled equation of state parameters for gases in the critical region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sengers, J. M. H. L.; Greer, W. L.; Sengers, J. V.

    1976-01-01

    In the light of recent theoretical developments, the paper presents an accurate characterization of anomalous thermodynamic behavior of xenon, helium 4, helium 3, carbon dioxide, steam and oxygen in the critical region. This behavior is associated with long range fluctuations in the system and the physical properties depend primarily on a single variable, namely, the correlation length. A description of the thermodynamic behavior of fluids in terms of scaling laws is formulated, and the two successfully used scaled equations of state (NBS equation and Linear Model parametric equation) are compared. Methods for fitting both equations to experimental equation of state data are developed and formulated, and the optimum fit for each of the two scaled equations of the above gases are presented and the results are compared. By extending the experimental data for the above one-component fluids to partially miscible binary liquids, superfluid liquid helium, ferromagnets and solids exhibiting order-disorder transitions, the principle of universality is concluded. Finally by using this principle, the critical regions for nine additional fluids are described.

  2. Factors affecting distribution patterns of organic carbon in sediments at regional and national scales in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qingqing; Wang, Hui; Zhang, Yiran; Lal, Rattan; Wang, Renqing; Ge, Xiuli; Liu, Jian

    2017-07-14

    Wetlands are an important carbon reservoir pool in terrestrial ecosystems. Light fraction organic carbon (LFOC), heavy fraction organic carbon (HFOC), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were fractionated in sediment samples from the four wetlands (ZR: Zhaoniu River; ZRCW: Zhaoniu River Constructed Wetland; XR: Xinxue River; XRCW: Xinxue River Constructed Wetland). Organic carbon (OC) from rivers and coasts of China were retrieved and statistically analyzed. At regional scale, HFOC stably dominates the deposition of OC (95.4%), whereas DOC and LFOC in ZR is significantly higher than in ZRCW. Concentration of DOC is significantly higher in XRCW (30.37 mg/l) than that in XR (13.59 mg/l). DOC and HFOC notably distinguish between two sampling campaigns, and the deposition of carbon fractions are limited by low nitrogen input. At the national scale, OC attains the maximum of 2.29% at precipitation of 800 mm. OC has no significant difference among the three climate zones but significantly higher in river sediments than in coasts. Coastal OC increases from Bohai Sea (0.52%) to South Sea (0.70%) with a decrease in latitude. This study summarizes the factors affecting organic carbon storage in regional and national scale, and have constructive implications for carbon assessment, modelling, and management.

  3. A fusion of top-down and bottom-up modeling techniques to constrain regional scale carbon budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goeckede, M.; Turner, D. P.; Michalak, A. M.; Vickers, D.; Law, B. E.

    2009-12-01

    . Bayesian inversion is then applied to assign scaling factors that align the surface fluxes with the CO2 time series. Our project demonstrates how bottom-up and top-down techniques can be reconciled to arrive at a more robust and balanced spatial carbon budget. We will show how to evaluate existing flux products through regionally representative atmospheric observations, i.e. how well the underlying model assumptions represent processes on the regional scale. Adapting process model parameterizations sets for e.g. sub-regions, disturbance regimes, or land cover classes, in order to optimize the agreement between surface fluxes and atmospheric observations can lead to improved understanding of the underlying flux mechanisms, and reduces uncertainties in the regional carbon budgets.

  4. Assessing the influence of watershed characteristics on chlorophyll a in waterbodies at global and regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woelmer, Whitney; Kao, Yu-Chun; Bunnell, David B.; Deines, Andrew M.; Bennion, David; Rogers, Mark W.; Brooks, Colin N.; Sayers, Michael J.; Banach, David M.; Grimm, Amanda G.; Shuchman, Robert A.

    2016-01-01

    Prediction of primary production of lentic water bodies (i.e., lakes and reservoirs) is valuable to researchers and resource managers alike, but is very rarely done at the global scale. With the development of remote sensing technologies, it is now feasible to gather large amounts of data across the world, including understudied and remote regions. To determine which factors were most important in explaining the variation of chlorophyll a (Chl-a), an indicator of primary production in water bodies, at global and regional scales, we first developed a geospatial database of 227 water bodies and watersheds with corresponding Chl-a, nutrient, hydrogeomorphic, and climate data. Then we used a generalized additive modeling approach and developed model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables for all 227 water bodies and for 51 lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes region in the data set. Our best global model contained two hydrogeomorphic variables (water body surface area and the ratio of watershed to water body surface area) and a climate variable (average temperature in the warmest model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables quarter) and explained ~ 30% of variation in Chl-a. Our regional model contained one hydrogeomorphic variable (flow accumulation) and the same climate variable, but explained substantially more variation (58%). Our results indicate that a regional approach to watershed modeling may be more informative to predicting Chl-a, and that nearly a third of global variability in Chl-a may be explained using hydrogeomorphic and climate variables.

  5. Regional-scale relationships between aerosol and summer monsoon circulation, and precipitation over northeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Soon-Chang; Kim, Sang-Woo; Choi, Suk-Jin; Choi, In-Jin

    2010-08-01

    We investigated the regional-scale relationships between columnar aerosol loads and summer monsoon circulation, and also the precipitation over northeast Asia using aerosol optical depth (AOD) data obtained from the 8-year MODIS, AERONET Sun/sky radiometer, and precipitation data acquired under the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). These high-quality data revealed the regional-scale link between AOD and summer monsoon circulation, precipitation in July over northeast Asian countries, and their distinct spatial and annual variabilities. Compared to the mean AOD for the entire period of 2001-2008, the increase of almost 40-50% in the AOD value in July 2005 and July 2007 was found over the downwind regions of China (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea), with negative precipitation anomalies. This can be attributable to the strong westerly confluent flows, between cyclone flows by continental thermal low centered over the northern China and anticyclonic flows by the western North Pacific High, which transport anthropogenic pollution aerosols emitted from east China to aforementioned downwind high AOD regions along the rim of the Pacific marine airmass. In July 2002, however, the easterly flows transported anthropogenic aerosols from east China to the southwestern part of China in July 2002. As a result, the AOD off the coast of China was dramatically reduced in spite of decreasing rainfall. From the calculation of the cross-correlation coefficient between MODIS-derived AOD anomalies and GPCP precipitation anomalies in July over the period 2001-2008, we found negative correlations over the areas encompassed by 105-115°E and 30-35°N and by 120-140°E and 35-40°N (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea). This suggests that aerosol loads over these regions are easily influenced by the Asian monsoon flow system and associated precipitation.

  6. Understanding the Stability of Forest Reserve Boundaries in the West Mengo Region of Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan D. Vogt

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite heavy pressure and disturbance, state property regimes have stemmed deforestation within protected areas of the West Mengo region of Uganda for over 50 yr. In this manuscript, we reconstruct the process of creation and maintenance of forest reserve boundaries in the West Mengo region of Uganda to identify why these boundaries have largely remained stable over the long term under conditions in which they may be predicted to fail. The dramatic boundary stability in West Mengo we attribute to key aspects of institutional design and enforcement of boundaries.

  7. Technological and structural change : Understanding economic growth in countries and regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diodato, D.

    2017-01-01

    The research aims at improving our understanding of the link between economic structure and growth, by tackling a number of open questions. First, it asks whether economic structure – meaning the distribution of production factors among different industries – can significantly explain differences in

  8. Outlook of multiple time and spatial scale simulation for understanding self-organizing phenomena in plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Takaya; Horiuchi, Ritoku; Watanabe, Kunihiko; Sato, Tetsuya

    2003-01-01

    The importance of the methodology of computer simulation has been recognized in plasma physics since the early era of computer evolution. In particular, the goal of simulation in this research field has been characterized by attempts to treat phenomena in a self-consistent manner as much as possible. Owing to the astonishing progress in recent supercomputer technology, we are now standing on a doorway to open a new stage in the simulation research in this direction, that is, an execution of multi-layer model simulation to understand complex phenomena in plasmas. (author)

  9. Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, X. C.; Mora, P.; Peng, K.; Wang, Y. C.; Weatherley, D.

    The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

  10. Integrated management of water resources demand and supply in irrigated agriculture from plot to regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Schütze

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Growing water scarcity in agriculture is an increasing problem in future in many regions of the world. Recent trends of weather extremes in Saxony, Germany also enhance drought risks for agricultural production. In addition, signals of longer and more intense drought conditions during the vegetation period can be found in future regional climate scenarios for Saxony. However, those climate predictions are associated with high uncertainty and therefore, e.g. stochastic methods are required to analyze the impact of changing climate patterns on future crop water requirements and water availability. For assessing irrigation as a measure to increase agricultural water security a generalized stochastic approach for a spatial distributed estimation of future irrigation water demand is proposed, which ensures safe yields and a high water productivity at the same time. The developed concept of stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPF can serve as a central decision support tool for both, (i a cost benefit analysis of farm irrigation modernization on a local scale and (ii a regional water demand management using a multi-scale approach for modeling and implementation. The new approach is applied using the example of a case study in Saxony, which is dealing with the sustainable management of future irrigation water demands and its implementation.

  11. Adaptive Control of a Utility-Scale Wind Turbine Operating in Region 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frost, Susan A.; Balas, Mark J.; Wright, Alan D.

    2009-01-01

    Adaptive control techniques are well suited to nonlinear applications, such as wind turbines, which are difficult to accurately model and which have effects from poorly known operating environments. The turbulent and unpredictable conditions in which wind turbines operate create many challenges for their operation. In this paper, we design an adaptive collective pitch controller for a high-fidelity simulation of a utility scale, variable-speed horizontal axis wind turbine. The objective of the adaptive pitch controller in Region 3 is to regulate generator speed and reject step disturbances. The control objective is accomplished by collectively pitching the turbine blades. We use an extension of the Direct Model Reference Adaptive Control (DMRAC) approach to track a reference point and to reject persistent disturbances. The turbine simulation models the Controls Advanced Research Turbine (CART) of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado. The CART is a utility-scale wind turbine which has a well-developed and extensively verified simulator. The adaptive collective pitch controller for Region 3 was compared in simulations with a bas celliansesical Proportional Integrator (PI) collective pitch controller. In the simulations, the adaptive pitch controller showed improved speed regulation in Region 3 when compared with the baseline PI pitch controller and it demonstrated robustness to modeling errors.

  12. Experimental evidence of widespread regions of small-scale plasma irregularities in the magnetosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmgren, G.; Kintner, P.M.

    1990-01-01

    Small-scale (≤ 1 km) plasma irregularities have previously been observed in situ from the E region to an altitude of 8,000 km. In this paper the authors report results from the Viking plasma wave experiments which extends the measurements of high-latitude irregularities in two ways: (1) they have acquired electron density fluctuation measurements up to an altitude of 13,500 km and (2) for the first time a measurement technique was used that made a phase velocity deduction possible from in situ measurements. The spacecraft was equipped with two spatially separated Langmuir probes, each with an ability to measure relative probe current fluctuations with frequencies from dc to about 400 Hz. Under certain assumptions the current fluctuations could be interpreted as relative plasma density fluctuations, δn e /n e . Data from this interferometric instrument has been used to infer the distribution and nature of plasma irregularities along Viking orbits. It is demonstrated that the interferometric technique offers great advantages compared to single point measurements in this kind of study. It is shown that the observed small-scale plasma irregularities are nondispersive and convecting with the background plasma. They exhibit a power law frequency spectrum as observed in the satellite reference frame. The spectral index varies with location. An attempt to map source regions by identifying regions of high power and shallow spectrums is made

  13. Long distance dispersal and connectivity in amphi-Atlantic corals at regional and basin scales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia L D Nunes

    Full Text Available Among Atlantic scleractinian corals, species diversity is highest in the Caribbean, but low diversity and high endemism are observed in various peripheral populations in central and eastern Atlantic islands and along the coasts of Brazil and West Africa. The degree of connectivity between these distantly separated populations is of interest because it provides insight into processes at both evolutionary and ecological time scales, such as speciation, recruitment dynamics and the persistence of coral populations. To assess connectivity in broadly distributed coral species of the Atlantic, DNA sequence data from two nuclear markers were obtained for six coral species spanning their distributional ranges. At basin-wide scales, significant differentiation was generally observed among populations in the Caribbean, Brazil and West Africa. Concordance of patterns in connectivity among co-distributed taxa indicates that extrinsic barriers, such as the Amazon freshwater plume or long stretches of open ocean, restrict dispersal of coral larvae from region to region. Within regions, dispersal ability appears to be influenced by aspects of reproduction and life history. Two broadcasting species, Siderastrea siderea and Montastraea cavernosa, were able to maintain gene flow among populations separated by as much as 1,200 km along the coast of Brazil. In contrast, brooding species, such as Favia gravida and Siderastrea radians, had more restricted gene flow along the Brazilian coast.

  14. Scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the French Mediterranean region: What explains the hook shape?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drobinski, P.; Alonzo, B.; Bastin, S.; Silva, N. Da; Muller, C.

    2016-04-01

    Expected changes to future extreme precipitation remain a key uncertainty associated with anthropogenic climate change. Extreme precipitation has been proposed to scale with the precipitable water content in the atmosphere. Assuming constant relative humidity, this implies an increase of precipitation extremes at a rate of about 7% °C-1 globally as indicated by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Increases faster and slower than Clausius-Clapeyron have also been reported. In this work, we examine the scaling between precipitation extremes and temperature in the present climate using simulations and measurements from surface weather stations collected in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs in Southern France. Of particular interest are departures from the Clausius-Clapeyron thermodynamic expectation, their spatial and temporal distribution, and their origin. Looking at the scaling of precipitation extreme with temperature, two regimes emerge which form a hook shape: one at low temperatures (cooler than around 15°C) with rates of increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron rate and one at high temperatures (warmer than about 15°C) with sub-Clausius-Clapeyron rates and most often negative rates. On average, the region of focus does not seem to exhibit super Clausius-Clapeyron behavior except at some stations, in contrast to earlier studies. Many factors can contribute to departure from Clausius-Clapeyron scaling: time and spatial averaging, choice of scaling temperature (surface versus condensation level), and precipitation efficiency and vertical velocity in updrafts that are not necessarily constant with temperature. But most importantly, the dynamical contribution of orography to precipitation in the fall over this area during the so-called "Cevenoles" events, explains the hook shape of the scaling of precipitation extremes.

  15. Groundwater-fed irrigation impacts spatially distributed temporal scaling behavior of the natural system: a spatio-temporal framework for understanding water management impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Condon, Laura E; Maxwell, Reed M

    2014-01-01

    Regional scale water management analysis increasingly relies on integrated modeling tools. Much recent work has focused on groundwater–surface water interactions and feedbacks. However, to our knowledge, no study has explicitly considered impacts of management operations on the temporal dynamics of the natural system. Here, we simulate twenty years of hourly moisture dependent, groundwater-fed irrigation using a three-dimensional, fully integrated, hydrologic model (ParFlow-CLM). Results highlight interconnections between irrigation demand, groundwater oscillation frequency and latent heat flux variability not previously demonstrated. Additionally, the three-dimensional model used allows for novel consideration of spatial patterns in temporal dynamics. Latent heat flux and water table depth both display spatial organization in temporal scaling, an important finding given the spatial homogeneity and weak scaling observed in atmospheric forcings. Pumping and irrigation amplify high frequency (sub-annual) variability while attenuating low frequency (inter-annual) variability. Irrigation also intensifies scaling within irrigated areas, essentially increasing temporal memory in both the surface and the subsurface. These findings demonstrate management impacts that extend beyond traditional water balance considerations to the fundamental behavior of the system itself. This is an important step to better understanding groundwater’s role as a buffer for natural variability and the impact that water management has on this capacity. (paper)

  16. Understanding dynamics of large-scale atmospheric vortices with moist-convective shallow water model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rostami, M.; Zeitlin, V.

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric jets and vortices which, together with inertia-gravity waves, constitute the principal dynamical entities of large-scale atmospheric motions, are well described in the framework of one- or multi-layer rotating shallow water models, which are obtained by vertically averaging of full “primitive” equations. There is a simple and physically consistent way to include moist convection in these models by adding a relaxational parameterization of precipitation and coupling precipitation with convective fluxes with the help of moist enthalpy conservation. We recall the construction of moist-convective rotating shallow water model (mcRSW) model and give an example of application to upper-layer atmospheric vortices. (paper)

  17. Understanding the catalytic activity of gold nanoparticles through multi-scale simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brodersen, Simon Hedegaard; Vej-Hansen, Ulrik Grønbjerg; Larsen, Britt Hvolbæk

    2011-01-01

    We investigate how the chemical reactivity of gold nanoparticles depends on the cluster size and shape using a combination of simulation techniques at different length scales, enabling us to model at the atomic level the shapes of clusters in the size range relevant for catalysis. The detailed......-coordinated active sites is found, and their reactivities are extracted from models based on Density Functional Theory calculations. This enables us to determine the chemical activity of clusters in the same range of particle sizes that is accessible experimentally. The variation of reactivity with particle size...... is in excellent agreement with experiments, and we conclude that the experimentally observed trends are mostly explained by the high reactivity of under-coordinated corner atoms on the gold clusters. Other effects, such as the effect of the substrate, may influence the reactivities significantly, but the presence...

  18. National, holistic, watershed-scale approach to understand the sources, transport, and fate of agricultural chemicals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capel, P.D.; McCarthy, K.A.; Barbash, J.E.

    2008-01-01

    This paper is an introduction to the following series of papers that report on in-depth investigations that have been conducted at five agricultural study areas across the United States in order to gain insights into how environmental processes and agricultural practices interact to determine the transport and fate of agricultural chemicals in the environment. These are the first study areas in an ongoing national study. The study areas were selected, based on the combination of cropping patterns and hydrologic setting, as representative of nationally important agricultural settings to form a basis for extrapolation to unstudied areas. The holistic, watershed-scale study design that involves multiple environmental compartments and that employs both field observations and simulation modeling is presented. This paper introduces the overall study design and presents an overview of the hydrology of the five study areas. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

  19. Large-scale data analysis of power grid resilience across multiple US service regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Chuanyi; Wei, Yun; Mei, Henry; Calzada, Jorge; Carey, Matthew; Church, Steve; Hayes, Timothy; Nugent, Brian; Stella, Gregory; Wallace, Matthew; White, Joe; Wilcox, Robert

    2016-05-01

    Severe weather events frequently result in large-scale power failures, affecting millions of people for extended durations. However, the lack of comprehensive, detailed failure and recovery data has impeded large-scale resilience studies. Here, we analyse data from four major service regions representing Upstate New York during Super Storm Sandy and daily operations. Using non-stationary spatiotemporal random processes that relate infrastructural failures to recoveries and cost, our data analysis shows that local power failures have a disproportionally large non-local impact on people (that is, the top 20% of failures interrupted 84% of services to customers). A large number (89%) of small failures, represented by the bottom 34% of customers and commonplace devices, resulted in 56% of the total cost of 28 million customer interruption hours. Our study shows that extreme weather does not cause, but rather exacerbates, existing vulnerabilities, which are obscured in daily operations.

  20. Regional scale groundwater resource assessment in the Australian outback - Geophysics is the only way.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munday, T. J.; Davis, A. C.; Gilfedder, M.; Annetts, D.

    2015-12-01

    Resource development, whether in agriculture, mining and/or energy, is set to have significant consequences for the groundwater resources of Australia in the short to medium term. These industry sectors are of significant economic value to the country and consequently their support remains a priority for State and Federal Governments alike. The scale of potential developments facilitated in large part by the Government Programs, like the West Australian (WA) Government's "Water for Food" program, and the South Australian's Government's PACE program, will result in an increase in infrastructure requirements, including access to water resources and Aboriginal lands to support these developments. However, the increased demand for water, particularly groundwater, is likely to be compromised by the limited information we have about these resources. This is particularly so for remote parts of the country which are targeted as primary development areas. There is a recognised need to expand this knowledge so that water availability is not a limiting factor to development. Governments of all persuasions have therefore adopted geophysical technologies, particularly airborne electromagnetics (AEM), as a basis for extending the hydrogeological knowledge of data poor areas. In WA, the State Government has employed regional-scale AEM surveys as a basis for defining groundwater resources to support mining, regional agricultural developments whilst aiming to safeguard regional population centres, and environmental assets. A similar approach is being employed in South Australia. These surveys are being used to underpin conceptual hydrogeological frameworks, define basin-scale hydrogeological models, delimit the extent of saltwater intrusion in coastal areas, and to determine the groundwater resource potential of remote alluvial systems aimed at supporting new, irrigation-based, agricultural developments in arid parts of the Australian outback. In the absence of conventional

  1. Monitoring and Modeling Water and Energy Fluxes in North China Plain: From Field to Regional Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Y.

    2012-12-01

    North China Plain is one of the mostly water deficit region in the world. Even though the total water withdrawal from surface and groundwater exceeded its renewable ability for long years, due to its importance to balance the food budget in China, large amount of groundwater is still extracted every year for intensive irrigation. With winter wheat and summer maize double-cropping system, the grain yield of NCP can reach a very high level of around 15 t/ha annually, which is largely depended on timely irrigation. As a result, the ceaseless over exploitation of groundwater caused serious environmental and ecological problems, e.g. nearly all the rivers run drying-up at plain areas, groundwater declined, land subsidence, and wetland shrank. The decrease in precipitation over past half century reinforced the water shortage in NCP. The sustainability of both the water resources and agriculture became the most important issue in this region. A key issue to the sustainable use of water resources is to improve the water use efficiency and reduce agricultural water consumptions. This study will introduce the efforts we put to clarify the water and heat balances in irrigated agricultural lands and its implications to crop yield, hydrology, and water resources evolution in NCP. We established a multi-scale observation system in NCP to study the surface water and heat processes and agricultural aspect of hydrological cycle in past years. Multi-disciplinary methods are adopted into this research such as micro-meteorologic, isotopic, soil hydrologic methods at the field scale, and remote sensing and modeling for study the water fluxes over regional scale. Detailed research activities and interesting as well as some initial results will be introduced at the workshop.

  2. A Molecular-Scale Understanding of Cohesion and Fracture in P3HT:Fullerene Blends

    KAUST Repository

    Tummala, Naga Rajesh

    2015-04-21

    Quantifying cohesion and understanding fracture phenomena in thin-film electronic devices are necessary for improved materials design and processing criteria. For organic photovoltaics (OPVs), the cohesion of the photoactive layer portends its mechanical flexibility, reliability, and lifetime. Here, the molecular mechanism for the initiation of cohesive failure in bulk heterojunction (BHJ) OPV active layers derived from the semiconducting polymer poly-(3-hexylthiophene) [P3HT] and two mono-substituted fullerenes is examined experimentally and through molecular-dynamics simulations. The results detail how, under identical conditions, cohesion significantly changes due to minor variations in the fullerene adduct functionality, an important materials consideration that needs to be taken into account across fields where soluble fullerene derivatives are used.

  3. Assessing the combined effect of dams and climate warming on streamflow in California's Sierra Nevada for regional-scale adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheinheimer, D. E.; Viers, J. H.

    2012-12-01

    Dams and their operations harm river ecosystems, in part by altering the natural flow regimes that those ecosystems depend on. In the multi-reservoir water management systems of California's Sierra Nevada, greater emphasis is being placed on re-operating existing reservoir systems to recover downstream ecosystems. However, climate change is changing inflow patterns, affecting both ecosystems and traditional water system benefits across the region. As new reservoir operation schemes will be needed to manage for natural resources management objectives at the regional scale, characterizing historical and future environmental impacts of current operations across the region can aid in prioritizing planning efforts. We used a coarse-scale water resources simulation model developed for the western Sierra Nevada to explore the independent and combined effects of dams and climate warming on the flow regime directly below reservoirs, the focal point for instream flow requirements in operations licenses. We quantified changes to mean annual flow, annual low flow duration, annual runoff centroid timing, and weekly rate of decrease under binary combinations of management (unregulated/regulated) and climate (historical/future) conditions. We demonstrate that although rivers in the Sierra Nevada are currently managed in ways that are harmful to instream ecosystems, and that streamflow effects of operations are typically much worse than climate change effects, there are signals that reservoirs can potentially be used to help adapt to some of climate changes harmful effects with little additional effort in some cases. This study is the first step toward a better understanding of the environmental costs from and opportunities afforded by the current stock of reservoirs in a large hydroregion under changing social and environmental conditions.

  4. Understanding Flash Flood Generation in the Arid Region of the Dead Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, R.; Hennig, H.; Rödiger, T.; Laronne, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    The arid region of the Dead Sea is prone by flash floods. Such flash floods in (semi-) arid regions are impressive. Generated within minutes, the peak unit discharge can be as high as 25 m³/s km². Floods are the main mechanism supplying water to alluvial aquifers, forming fluvial landscapes including canyons and often causing damage to humans, infrastructure, industry and tourism. Existing hydrological models in this region focus on peak discharges. However, these models are often based on simplified concepts and/or on concepts which were developed for humid regions. To more closely relate such models to local conditions, processes within catchments where floods occur require consideration. Therefore, a measurement network of rain gauges and level loggers to monitor runoff was installed in the beginning of the 2015/16 hydrological season in the tributaries of Wadi Arugot. The Arugot catchment is one of the largest ephemeral Wadis draining to the western shoreline of the Dead Sea at 450 m bsl. Due to the high gradient in elevation, the climate within the basin ranges from semiarid in the Judean Mountains, to hyper-arid near the Dead Sea with respective mean annual rainfall of 650 and 50 mm. The installed rain gauge network in the mountains is more dense compared to the Dead Sea area. Arid to semiarid catchments have different runoff generation processes compared to humid regions due local storm rainfall, low density of vegetation cover as well as patchy and shallow soil. These characteristics limit the contribution of groundwater flow, saturated overland flow and shallow subsurface flow, and therefore Hortonian overland flow is the most important contributor to overland flow. First analyses of the runoff data have shown that the storage capacity in the mountain area is lower compared to the more arid region. This is an evidence of high transmission losses in the coarse gravel wadi bed, therefore having a high permeability. The rain event duration and the amount of

  5. Integrated Approach for Understanding Impurity Adsorption on Calcite: Mechanisms for Micro-scale Surface Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinson, M. D.; Arvidson, R. S.; Luttge, A.

    2004-12-01

    A longstanding goal within the field of environmental geochemistry has been the development of a fundamental understanding of the kinetics that governs the interactions of solution-borne impurities with the calcite mineral surface. Recent dissolution experiments using Mg2+, Mn2+, and Sr2+ have shown distinct differences in the interaction of these three impurity ions with the calcite crystal surface. Because the dissolution of carbonate minerals in soils and sediments influences the uptake and migration of groundwater contaminants, a rigorous understanding of the basic processes that occur at the mineral-fluid interface is necessary. We have used vertical scanning interferometry (VSI) coupled with scanning probe microscopy (SPM) to examine calcite crystal dissolution in the presence of Mg2+, Mn2+, and Sr2+, all known dissolution inhibitors and possible groundwater contaminants. We have studied the kinetics of impurity-crystal interactions at a pH 8.8, and in the presence or absence of dissolved inorganic carbon. Our data show that, when individually introduced into undersaturated solutions, Mg2+ and Mn2+ are shown to activate the calcite crystal surface, resulting in enhanced etch pit nucleation rates and step density. Conversely, Sr2+ is shown to cause passivation of the calcite surface. The effect is intensified when solutions are saturated with respect to atmospheric CO2. Results indicate that aqueous CO32- (or HCO3-) may influence how aqueous metal ionic complexes interact with the crystal surface. Furthermore, the influence is differently exhibited, and passivation or activation ultimately depends on the properties of the diffusing metal ion or metal-hydroxide complex. These properties include for example, differences in hydration enthalpy, the effective ionic radius, and electron shell configuration.

  6. Population, Environment, and Climate in the Albertine Rift: Understanding Local Impacts of Regional Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartter, J.; Ryan, S. J.; Diem, J.; Palace, M. W.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is of critical concern for conservation and to develop appropriate policies and responses, it is important not only to anticipate the nature of changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local people. The Albertine Rift in East Africa is one of the most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense settlement, extreme poverty, and land conversion. We synthesize ongoing NSF-CNH research, where Ugandan park landscapes are examined to understand the impacts of climate change on livelihoods. Kibale National Park, the main study site, exemplifies the challenges facing many parks because of its isolation within a densely populated agricultural landscape. Three separate household surveys (n=251, 130, 100) reveal that the most perceived benefits provided by Kibale were ecosystem services and farmers cite rainfall as one of the park's most important benefits, but are also concerned with variable precipitation. Analysis of 30+ years of daily rainfall station data shows total rainfall has not changed significantly, but timing and transitions of seasons and intra-seasonal distribution are highly variable, which may contribute to changes in farming schedules and threaten food security. Further, the contrast between land use/cover change over 25 years around the park and the stability of forest within the park underscores the need to understand this landscape for future sustainability planning and the inevitable population growth outside its boundaries. Understanding climate change impacts and feedbacks to and from socio-ecological systems are important to address the dual challenge of biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation.

  7. Inferring coastal processes from regional-scale mapping of {sup 222}Radon and salinity: examples from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stieglitz, Thomas C., E-mail: thomas.stieglitz@jcu.edu.a [AIMS-JCU, Townsville (Australia); Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB NO 3, Townsville QLD 4810 (Australia); School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville QLD 4811 (Australia); Cook, Peter G., E-mail: peter.g.cook@csiro.a [CSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 2, Glen Osmond SA 5064 (Australia); Burnett, William C., E-mail: wburnett@mailer.fsu.ed [Department of Oceanography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    The radon isotope {sup 222}Rn and salinity in coastal surface water were mapped on regional scales, to improve the understanding of coastal processes and their spatial variability. Radon was measured with a surface-towed, continuously recording multi-detector setup on a moving vessel. Numerous processes and locations of land-ocean interaction along the Central Great Barrier Reef coastline were identified and interpreted based on the data collected. These included riverine fluxes, terrestrially-derived fresh submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and the tidal pumping of seawater through mangrove forests. Based on variations in the relationship of the tracers radon and salinity, some aspects of regional freshwater inputs to the coastal zone and to estuaries could be assessed. Concurrent mapping of radon and salinity allowed an efficient qualitative assessment of land-ocean interaction on various spatial and temporal scales, indicating that such surveys on coastal scales can be a useful tool to obtain an overview of SGD locations and processes.

  8. Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX: towards a holistic understanding of the feedbacks and interactions in the land–atmosphere–ocean–society continuum in the northern Eurasian region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. K. Lappalainen

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The northern Eurasian regions and Arctic Ocean will very likely undergo substantial changes during the next decades. The Arctic–boreal natural environments play a crucial role in the global climate via albedo change, carbon sources and sinks as well as atmospheric aerosol production from biogenic volatile organic compounds. Furthermore, it is expected that global trade activities, demographic movement, and use of natural resources will be increasing in the Arctic regions. There is a need for a novel research approach, which not only identifies and tackles the relevant multi-disciplinary research questions, but also is able to make a holistic system analysis of the expected feedbacks. In this paper, we introduce the research agenda of the Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX, a multi-scale, multi-disciplinary and international program started in 2012 (https://www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex/. PEEX sets a research approach by which large-scale research topics are investigated from a system perspective and which aims to fill the key gaps in our understanding of the feedbacks and interactions between the land–atmosphere–aquatic–society continuum in the northern Eurasian region. We introduce here the state of the art for the key topics in the PEEX research agenda and present the future prospects of the research, which we see relevant in this context.

  9. Modelling Groundwater Depletion at Regional and Global Scales: Present State and Future Prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide

    2015-01-01

    Except for frozen water in ice and glaciers, groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this paper, the most recent advances quantifying groundwater depletion (GWD) are comprehensively reviewed. This paper critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches estimating GWD at regional and global scales, and the evidence of feedbacks to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with GWD. Finally, critical challenges and opportunities in the use of groundwater are identified for the adaption to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

  10. A Procedure to Map Subsidence at the Regional Scale Using the Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ascanio Rosi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a procedure to map subsidence at the regional scale by means of persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI. Subsidence analysis is usually restricted to plain areas and where the presence of this phenomenon is already known. The proposed procedure allows a fast identification of subsidences in large and hilly-mountainous areas. The test area is the Tuscany region, in Central Italy, where several areas are affected by natural and anthropogenic subsidence and where PSI data acquired by the Envisat satellite are available both in ascending and descending orbit. The procedure consists of the definition of the vertical and horizontal components of the deformation measured by satellite at first, then of the calculation of the “real” displacement direction, so that mainly vertical deformations can be individuated and mapped.

  11. Regional-Scale High-Latitude Extreme Geoelectric Fields Pertaining to Geomagnetically Induced Currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, Antti; Bernabeu, Emanuel; Eichner, Jan; Viljanen, Ari; Ngwira, Chigomezyo

    2015-01-01

    Motivated by the needs of the high-voltage power transmission industry, we use data from the high-latitude IMAGE magnetometer array to study characteristics of extreme geoelectric fields at regional scales. We use 10-s resolution data for years 1993-2013, and the fields are characterized using average horizontal geoelectric field amplitudes taken over station groups that span about 500-km distance. We show that geoelectric field structures associated with localized extremes at single stations can be greatly different from structures associated with regionally uniform geoelectric fields, which are well represented by spatial averages over single stations. Visual extrapolation and rigorous extreme value analysis of spatially averaged fields indicate that the expected range for 1-in-100-year extreme events are 3-8 V/km and 3.4-7.1 V/km, respectively. The Quebec reference ground model is used in the calculations.

  12. Understanding toxicity at the watershed scale : design of the Syncrude Sandhill Fen watershed research project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wytrykush, C.

    2010-01-01

    Fens are peat-accumulating wetlands with a water table consisting of mineral-rich ground or surface water. This study discussed the construction of a fen-type reclaimed wetland constructed in a post-mining oil sands landscape. Syncrude Canada's Sandhill fen watershed project represents the first attempt at constructing a fen wetland in the oil sands region. The wetland and its watershed will be constructed on a soft tailings deposit. The design basis for the fen and watershed was developed by a team of researchers and scientists. The aim of the fen design was to control the salinity caused by tailings consolidation and seepage over time. Methods of mitigating potentially toxic effects from salinity were discussed.

  13. Complexity in the scaling of velocity fluctuations in the high-latitude F-region ionosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. Parkinson

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The temporal scaling properties of F-region velocity fluctuations, δvlos, were characterised over 17 octaves of temporal scale from τ=1 s to <1 day using a new data base of 1-s time resolution SuperDARN radar measurements. After quality control, 2.9 (1.9 million fluctuations were recorded during 31.5 (40.4 days of discretionary mode soundings using the Tasmanian (New Zealand radars. If the fluctuations were statistically self-similar, the probability density functions (PDFs of δvlos would collapse onto the same PDF using the scaling Psvs, τ=ταPvlos, τ and δvsvlosτ−α where α is the scaling exponent. The variations in scaling exponents α and multi-fractal behaviour were estimated using peak scaling and generalised structure function (GSF analyses, and a new method based upon minimising the differences between re-scaled probability density functions (PDFs. The efficiency of this method enabled calculation of "α spectra", the temporal spectra of scaling exponents from τ=1 s to ~2048 s. The large number of samples enabled calculation of α spectra for data separated into 2-h bins of MLT as well as two main physical regimes: Population A echoes with Doppler spectral width <75 m s−1 concentrated on closed field lines, and Population B echoes with spectral width >150 m s−1 concentrated on open field lines. For all data there was a scaling break at τ~10 s and the similarity of the fluctuations beneath this scale may be related to the large spatial averaging (~100 km×45 km employed by SuperDARN radars. For Tasmania Population B, the velocity fluctuations exhibited approximately mono fractal power law scaling between τ~8 s and 2048 s (34 min, and probably up to several hours. The scaling exponents were generally less than that expected for basic MHD

  14. Environmental change and hydrological responses in the interior of western Canada: Towards improved understanding, diagnosis, and prediction by the Changing Cold Regions Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Carey, S. K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Stewart, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    The past several decades have been a period of rapid climatic and environmental change. In western Canada, as in other areas globally, warming and changes in precipitation have led to vast reductions in seasonal snowcover and freshwater ice cover, retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, changing forest composition and structure, increasing northern shrub coverage, and earlier timing of river flows in spring. Yet streamflow volume has exhibited a variety of responses across the region and over different time scales, and patterns of change are not easily generalizable. Improved understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of the rapidly changing components of the Earth system are key to managing uncertain water futures, but this is challenging due to complex system behavior and sometimes compensatory responses. The Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) is a Canadian research network and GEWEX Regional Hydroclimate Project that is addressing these issues, with a geographic focus on the Saskatchewan and Mackenzie River basins. This paper will present examples of the changes that have been observed at a set of long-term and well-studied headwater research basins, and highlight how various processes confound hydrological responses here, pointing to the need for careful diagnosis. We will discuss some recent CCRN activities and progress toward improving conceptual understanding and developing scenarios of change for the 21st century, which can then be applied within process-based hydrological models for future prediction. Several priority research areas that will be a focus of continued work in CCRN will be recommended.

  15. Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide

  16. Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2018-03-01

    Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

  17. Regional scale variations of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 from satellite observation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ru, F; Lei, L; Guan, X; Bu, R; Qi, J

    2014-01-01

    To identify the sources, sinks and changes of atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4 , this study investigates the spatio-temporal changes of atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4 concentration on the regional scale by the satellite observations. In this paper, choosing the land region of China as the study area, we investigate the spatio-temporal changes of atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4 concentrations using the data of the CO 2 dry air mixing ratio (XCO 2 ), and the CH 4 dry air mixing ratio (XCH 4 ), retrieved by the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) from Jan. 2010 to Dec. 2012. The results show that (1) both XCO 2 and XCH 4 show higher concentrations in southeastern regions than that in the northwestern, and tend to yearly increasing from 2010 to 2013; (2) XCO 2 shows obvious seasonal change with higher values in the spring than that in summer. The seasonal peak-to-peak amplitude is 8 ppm and the annual growth is about 2 ppm. XCH 4 , however, does not show a seasonal change; (3) With regard to different land-use backgrounds, XCO 2 shows larger concentrations over the areas of urban agglomeration than that over the grasslands and deserts, and XCH 4 shows lower concentrations over deserts than that over the Yangtze River Delta region and Sichuan Basin

  18. An AHP-derived method for mapping the physical vulnerability of coastal areas at regional scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Le Cozannet

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Assessing coastal vulnerability to climate change at regional scales is now mandatory in France since the adoption of recent laws to support adaptation to climate change. However, there is presently no commonly recognised method to assess accurately how sea level rise will modify coastal processes in the coming decades. Therefore, many assessments of the physical component of coastal vulnerability are presently based on a combined use of data (e.g. digital elevation models, historical shoreline and coastal geomorphology datasets, simple models and expert opinion. In this study, we assess the applicability and usefulness of a multi-criteria decision-mapping method (the analytical hierarchy process, AHP to map physical coastal vulnerability to erosion and flooding in a structured way. We apply the method in two regions of France: the coastal zones of Languedoc-Roussillon (north-western Mediterranean, France and the island of La Réunion (south-western Indian Ocean, notably using the regional geological maps. As expected, the results show not only the greater vulnerability of sand spits, estuaries and low-lying areas near to coastal lagoons in both regions, but also that of a thin strip of erodible cliffs exposed to waves in La Réunion. Despite gaps in knowledge and data, the method is found to provide a flexible and transportable framework to represent and aggregate existing knowledge and to support long-term coastal zone planning through the integration of such studies into existing adaptation schemes.

  19. Networks and RegionalCompetitiveness: Towards a Transaction Cost Approach of Small-Scale Cooperation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Friel

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available A preoccupation with competition often dominates the study of governance. A focus on competition often unnecessarily precludes the possibility that regional institutions can suspend competition in certain areas and facilitate cooperation among potential rivals, thereby potentially contributing to their mutual success. In many ways companies cooperating through these types of networks have a greater degree of flexibility than firms which are forced to rely solely on hierarchies or markets for solutions to their problems. In order to fully understand how such networks work, this article first parses out differences in definitions of networks in order to understand how the type of network mentioned above actually differs from other uses of this term. Then it develops a theory of governance that goes beyond hierarchies and markets by demonstrating how this type of network can lead to reductions in transaction costs. This claim is illustrated on hand from examples of alternative forms of organization in Germany and Italy.

  20. The Transition Region Explorer: Observing the Multi-Scale Dynamics of Geospace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, E.

    2015-12-01

    Meso- and global-scale IT remote sensing is accomplished via satellite imagers and ground-based instruments. On the ground, the approach is arrays providing extensive as possible coverage (the "net") and powerful observatories that drill deep to provide detailed information about small-scale processes (the "drill"). Always, there is a trade between cost, spatial resolution, coverage (extent), number of parameters, and more, such that in general the larger the network the sparser the coverage. Where are we now? There are important gaps. With THEMIS-ASI, we see processes that quickly evolve beyond the field of view of one observatory, but involve space/time scales not captured by existing meso- and large-scale arrays. Many forefront questions require observations at heretofore unexplored space and time scales, and comprehensive inter-hemispheric conjugate observations than are presently available. To address this, a new ground-based observing initiative is being developed in Canada. Called TREx, for Transition Region Explorer, this new facility will incorporate dedicated blueline, redline, and Near-Infrared All-Sky Imagers, together with an unprecedented network of ten imaging riometers, with a combined field of view spanning more than three hours of magnetic local time and from equatorward to poleward of typical auroral latitudes (spanning the ionospheric footprint of the "nightside transition region" that separates the highly stretched tail and the inner magnetosphere). The TREx field-of-view is covered by HF radars, and contains a dense network of magnetometers and VLF receivers, as well as other geospace and upper atmospheric remote sensors. Taken together, TREx and these co-located instruments represent a quantum leap forward in terms of imaging, in multiple parameters (precipitation, ionization, convection, and currents), ionospheric dynamics in the above-mentioned scale gap. This represents an exciting new opportunity for studying geospace at the system level

  1. Regional Heat Flow Map and the Continental Thermal Isostasy Understanding of México

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinoza-Ojeda, O. M.; Harris, R. N.

    2014-12-01

    The first heat flow values made in Mexico were reported by Von Herzen [Science, 1963] for the marine environment and Smith [EPSL, 1974] for the continent. Since that time the number of measurements has increased greatly but are mostly from oil and gas exploration and in and around geothermal areas. We have compiled published values of conductive heat flow for Mexico and the Gulf of California to generate a new regional heat flow map consisting of 261 values. In addition to those original values, published heat flow sources include, Lee and Henyey [JGR, 1975], Lawver and Williams [JGR, 1979] Smith et al. [JGR, 1979], Lachenbruch et al. [JGR, 1985], and Ziagos et al. [JGR, 1985]. Although the geographic distribution is uneven, heat flow data are present in each of the eight main tectonic provinces. Our new compilation indicates relatively high regional heat flow averages in the Gulf Extensional Province (n=114, 92±22 mW/m2) and Mexican Basin and Range (n=21, 82±20 mW/m2) and are consistent with geologic estimates of extension. Lower regional averages are found in the Baja California Microplate (n=91, 75±19 mW/m2), the Sierra Madre Occidental (n=9, 75±12 mW/m2), the Sierra Madre Oriental (n=4, 68±15 mW/m2) and Mesa Central (n=X 77±23 mW/m2). In contrast low and variable heat flow value characterize the forearc region of the Middle America Trench (n=6, 35±16 mW/m2). A higher mean heat flow is associated with the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (n=6, 78±26 mW/m2). Continental elevation results from a combination of buoyancy (i.e. compositional and thermal) and geodynamic forces. We combine these regional heat flow values with estimates of crustal thickness and density for each tectonic province and compute the thermal and compositional buoyancy following the approach of Hasterok and Chapman [JGR, 2007a,b]. We find that within uncertainties most provinces lie near the theoretical isostatic relationship with the exception of the Mesa Central and Sierra Madre del Sur

  2. Understanding the risk of scaling and fouling in hollow fiber forward osmosis membrane application

    KAUST Repository

    Majeed, Tahir; Phuntsho, Sherub; Jeong, Sanghyun; Zhao, Yanxia; Gao, Baoyu; Shon, Ho Kyong

    2016-01-01

    Fouling studies of forward osmosis (FO) were mostly conducted based on fouling evaluation principals applied to pressure membrane processes such as reverse osmosis (RO)/nanofiltration (NF)/microfiltration (MF)/ultrafiltration (UF). For RO/NF/MF/UF processes, the single flux driving force (hydraulic pressure) remains constant, thus the fouling effect is easily evaluated by comparing flux data with the baseline. Whilst, the scenario of fouling effects for FO process is entirely different from RO/NF/MF/UF processes. Continuously changing driving force (osmotic pressure difference), the changes in concentration polarization associated with the varying draw solution/feed solution concentration and the fouling layer effects collectively influence the FO flux. Thus, usual comparison of the FO flux outcome with the baseline results can not exactly indicate the real affect of membrane fouling, rather presents a misleading cumulative effect. This study compares the existing FO fouling technique with an alternate fouling evaluation approach using two FO set-ups. Scaling and fouling risk for hollow fiber FO was separately investigated using synthetic water samples and model organic foulants as alginate, humic acid and bovine serum albumin. Results indicated that FO flux declines up to 5% and 49% in active layer-feed solution and active layer-draw solution orientations respectively.

  3. Understanding the risk of scaling and fouling in hollow fiber forward osmosis membrane application

    KAUST Repository

    Majeed, Tahir

    2016-06-23

    Fouling studies of forward osmosis (FO) were mostly conducted based on fouling evaluation principals applied to pressure membrane processes such as reverse osmosis (RO)/nanofiltration (NF)/microfiltration (MF)/ultrafiltration (UF). For RO/NF/MF/UF processes, the single flux driving force (hydraulic pressure) remains constant, thus the fouling effect is easily evaluated by comparing flux data with the baseline. Whilst, the scenario of fouling effects for FO process is entirely different from RO/NF/MF/UF processes. Continuously changing driving force (osmotic pressure difference), the changes in concentration polarization associated with the varying draw solution/feed solution concentration and the fouling layer effects collectively influence the FO flux. Thus, usual comparison of the FO flux outcome with the baseline results can not exactly indicate the real affect of membrane fouling, rather presents a misleading cumulative effect. This study compares the existing FO fouling technique with an alternate fouling evaluation approach using two FO set-ups. Scaling and fouling risk for hollow fiber FO was separately investigated using synthetic water samples and model organic foulants as alginate, humic acid and bovine serum albumin. Results indicated that FO flux declines up to 5% and 49% in active layer-feed solution and active layer-draw solution orientations respectively.

  4. Applicability of Earth Observation for Identifying Small-Scale Mining Footprints in a Wet Tropical Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celso M. Isidro

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The unpredictable climate in wet tropical regions along with the spatial resolution limitations of some satellite imageries make detecting and mapping artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM challenging. The objective of this study was to test the utility of Pleiades and SPOT imagery with an object-based support vector machine (OB-SVM classifier for the multi-temporal remote sensing of ASM and other land cover including a large-scale mine in the Didipio catchment in the Philippines. Historical spatial data on location and type of ASM mines were collected from the field and were utilized as training data for the OB-SVM classifier. The classification had an overall accuracy between 87% and 89% for the three different images—Pleiades-1A for the 2013 and 2014 images and SPOT-6 for the 2016 image. The main land use features, particularly the Didipio large-scale mine, were well identified by the OB-SVM classifier, however there were greater commission errors for the mapping of small-scale mines. The lack of consistency in their shape and their small area relative to pixel sizes meant they were often not distinguished from other land clearance types (i.e., open land. To accurately estimate the total area of each land cover class, we calculated bias-adjusted surface areas based on misclassification values. The analysis showed an increase in small-scale mining areas from 91,000 m2—or 0.2% of the total catchment area—in March 2013 to 121,000 m2—or 0.3%—in May 2014, and then a decrease to 39,000 m2—or 0.1%—in January 2016.

  5. Laurel Wilt in Natural and Agricultural Ecosystems: Understanding the Drivers and Scales of Complex Pathosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randy C. Ploetz

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Laurel wilt kills members of the Lauraceae plant family in the southeastern United States. It is caused by Raffaelea lauricola T.C. Harr., Fraedrich and Aghayeva, a nutritional fungal symbiont of an invasive Asian ambrosia beetle, Xyleborus glabratus Eichhoff, which was detected in Port Wentworth, Georgia, in 2002. The beetle is the primary vector of R. lauricola in forests along the southeastern coastal plain of the United States, but other ambrosia beetle species that obtained the pathogen after the initial introduction may play a role in the avocado (Persea americana Miller pathosystem. Susceptible taxa are naïve (new-encounter hosts that originated outside Asia. In the southeastern United States, over 300 million trees of redbay (P. borbonia (L. Spreng. have been lost, and other North American endemics, non-Asian ornamentals and avocado—an important crop that originated in MesoAmerica—are also affected. However, there are no reports of laurel wilt on the significant number of lauraceous endemics that occur in the Asian homeland of R. lauricola and X. glabratus; coevolved resistance to the disease in the region has been hypothesized. The rapid spread of laurel wilt in the United States is due to an efficient vector, X. glabratus, and the movement of wood infested with the insect and pathogen. These factors, the absence of fully resistant genotypes, and the paucity of effective control measures severely constrain the disease’s management in forest ecosystems and avocado production areas.

  6. Tree-based approaches for understanding growth patterns in the European regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola Annoni

    2016-09-01

    transport infrastructure, human capital, labour market and research and innovation - and incorporates the institutional quality and two variables which aim to reflect the macroeconomic conditions in which the regions operate. Given the scarcity of reliable and comparable regional data at the EU level, large part of the analysis has been devoted to build reliable and consistent panel data on potential factors of growth. Two non-parametric, decision-tree techniques, randomized Classication and Regression Tree and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, are employed for their ability to address data complexities such as non-linearities and interaction eects, which are generally a challenge for more traditional statistical procedures such as linear regression. Results show that the dependence of growth rates on the factors included in the analysis is clearly non-linear with important factor interactions. This means that growth is determined by the simultaneous presence of multiple stimulus factors rather than the presence of a single area of excellence. Results also conrm the critical importance of the macroeconomic framework together with human capital as major drivers of economic growth of countries and regions. This is overall in line with most of the economic literature, which has persistently underlined the major role of these factors on economic growth but with the novelty that the macroeconomic conditions are here incorporated. Human capital also has an important role, with low-skilled workforce having a higher detrimental eect on growth than high-skilled. Not surprisingly, other important factors are the quality of governance and, in line with the neoclassical growth theory, the stage of development, with less developed economies growing at a faster pace than the others. The evidence given by the model about the impact of other factors on economic growth such as those on the quality of infrastructure or the level of innovation seems to be more limited and

  7. Elucidating Carbon Exchange at the Regional Scale Via Airborne Eddy Covariance Flux Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannun, R. A.; Wolfe, G. M.; Kawa, S. R.; Newman, P. A.; Hanisco, T. F.; Diskin, G. S.; DiGangi, J. P.; Nowak, J. B.; Barrick, J. D. W.; Thornhill, K. L., II; Noormets, A.; Vargas, R.; Clark, K. L.; Kustas, W. P.

    2017-12-01

    Direct flux observations from aircraft provide a unique tool for probing greenhouse gas (GHG) sources and sinks on a regional scale. Airborne eddy covariance, which relies on high-frequency, simultaneous measurements of fluctuations in concentration and vertical wind speed, is a robust method for quantifying surface-atmosphere exchange. We have assembled and flown an instrument payload onboard the NASA C-23 Sherpa aircraft capable of measuring CO2, CH4, H2O, and heat fluxes. Flights for the Carbon Airborne Flux Experiment (CARAFE) took place during September 2016 and May 2017 based out of Wallops Flight Facility, VA. Flight tracks covered a variety of ecosystems and land-use types in the Mid-Atlantic, including forests, croplands, and wetlands. Carbon fluxes are derived using eddy covariance and wavelet analysis. Our results show a strong drawdown of CO2 and near-zero CH4 emissions from crops and dry-land forest, but seasonally strong CH4 flux from wetland forest. CARAFE flux data will also be compared with observations from several flux towers along the flight path to complement the airborne measurements. We will further assess the effects of land surface type and seasonal variability in carbon exchange. Regional-scale flux observations from CARAFE supply a useful constraint for improving top-down and bottom up estimates of carbon sources and sinks.

  8. Simulating flow in karst aquifers at laboratory and sub-regional scales using MODFLOW-CFP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallegos, Josue Jacob; Hu, Bill X.; Davis, Hal

    2013-12-01

    Groundwater flow in a well-developed karst aquifer dominantly occurs through bedding planes, fractures, conduits, and caves created by and/or enlarged by dissolution. Conventional groundwater modeling methods assume that groundwater flow is described by Darcian principles where primary porosity (i.e. matrix porosity) and laminar flow are dominant. However, in well-developed karst aquifers, the assumption of Darcian flow can be questionable. While Darcian flow generally occurs in the matrix portion of the karst aquifer, flow through conduits can be non-laminar where the relation between specific discharge and hydraulic gradient is non-linear. MODFLOW-CFP is a relatively new modeling program that accounts for non-laminar and laminar flow in pipes, like karst caves, within an aquifer. In this study, results from MODFLOW-CFP are compared to those from MODFLOW-2000/2005, a numerical code based on Darcy's law, to evaluate the accuracy that CFP can achieve when modeling flows in karst aquifers at laboratory and sub-regional (Woodville Karst Plain, Florida, USA) scales. In comparison with laboratory experiments, simulation results by MODFLOW-CFP are more accurate than MODFLOW 2005. At the sub-regional scale, MODFLOW-CFP was more accurate than MODFLOW-2000 for simulating field measurements of peak flow at one spring and total discharges at two springs for an observed storm event.

  9. Topoclimatic modeling for minimum temperature prediction at a regional scale in the Central Valley of Chile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santibáñez, F.; Morales, L.; Fuente, J. de la; Cellier, P.; Huete, A.

    1997-01-01

    Spring frost may strongly affect fruit production in the Central Valley of Chile. Minimum temperatures are spatially variable owing to topography and soil conditions. A methodology for forecasting minimum temperature at a regional scale in the Central Valley of Chile, integrating spatial variability of temperature under radiative frost conditions, has been developed. It uses simultaneously a model for forecasting minimum temperatures at a reference station using air temperature and humidity measured at 6 pm, and topoclimatic models, based on satellite infra-red imagery (NOAA/AVHRR) and a digital elevation model, to extend the prediction at a regional scale. The methodological developments were integrated in a geographic information system for geo referencing of a meteorological station with satellite imagery and modeled output. This approach proved to be a useful tool for short range (12 h) minimum temperature prediction by generating thermal images over the Central Valley of Chile. It may also be used as a tool for frost risk assessment, in order to adapt production to local climatological conditions. (author)

  10. Regional-scale calculation of the LS factor using parallel processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kai; Tang, Guoan; Jiang, Ling; Zhu, A.-Xing; Yang, Jianyi; Song, Xiaodong

    2015-05-01

    With the increase of data resolution and the increasing application of USLE over large areas, the existing serial implementation of algorithms for computing the LS factor is becoming a bottleneck. In this paper, a parallel processing model based on message passing interface (MPI) is presented for the calculation of the LS factor, so that massive datasets at a regional scale can be processed efficiently. The parallel model contains algorithms for calculating flow direction, flow accumulation, drainage network, slope, slope length and the LS factor. According to the existence of data dependence, the algorithms are divided into local algorithms and global algorithms. Parallel strategy are designed according to the algorithm characters including the decomposition method for maintaining the integrity of the results, optimized workflow for reducing the time taken for exporting the unnecessary intermediate data and a buffer-communication-computation strategy for improving the communication efficiency. Experiments on a multi-node system show that the proposed parallel model allows efficient calculation of the LS factor at a regional scale with a massive dataset.

  11. Development of regional scale soil erosion and sediment transport model; its calibration and validations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehman, M.H.; Akhtar, M.N.

    2005-01-01

    Despite of the fact that many soil erosion models have been developed in the past more than 5 decades including empirical based models like USLE and RUSLE and many process based soil erosion and sediment transport models like WEPP, EUROSEM and SHETRAN, the application of these models to regional scales remained questionable. To address the problem, a process-based soil erosion and sediment transport model has been developed to estimate the soil erosion, deposition, transport and sediment yield at regional scale. The soil erosion processes are modeled as the detachment of soil by the raindrop impact over the entire grid and detachment of soil due to overland flow only within the equivalent channels, whereas sediment is routed to the forward grid considering the transport capacity of the flow. The loss of heterogeneity in the spatial information of the topography due to slope averaging effect is reproduced by adapting a Fractal analysis approach. The model has been calibrated for Nan river basin (N.13A) and validated to the Yom river basin (Y.6) and Nam Mae Klang river basin (P.24A) of Thailand, simulated results show good agreements with the observed sediment discharge data. The developed model with few new components can also be applied for predicting the sediment discharges of the river Indus. (author)

  12. Pesticide fate at regional scale: Development of an integrated model approach and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbst, M.; Hardelauf, H.; Harms, R.; Vanderborght, J.; Vereecken, H.

    As a result of agricultural practice many soils and aquifers are contaminated with pesticides. In order to quantify the side-effects of these anthropogenic impacts on groundwater quality at regional scale, a process-based, integrated model approach was developed. The Richards’ equation based numerical model TRACE calculates the three-dimensional saturated/unsaturated water flow. For the modeling of regional scale pesticide transport we linked TRACE with the plant module SUCROS and with 3DLEWASTE, a hybrid Lagrangian/Eulerian approach to solve the convection/dispersion equation. We used measurements, standard methods like pedotransfer-functions or parameters from literature to derive the model input for the process model. A first-step application of TRACE/3DLEWASTE to the 20 km 2 test area ‘Zwischenscholle’ for the period 1983-1993 reveals the behaviour of the pesticide isoproturon. The selected test area is characterised by an intense agricultural use and shallow groundwater, resulting in a high vulnerability of the groundwater to pesticide contamination. The model results stress the importance of the unsaturated zone for the occurrence of pesticides in groundwater. Remarkable isoproturon concentrations in groundwater are predicted for locations with thin layered and permeable soils. For four selected locations we used measured piezometric heads to validate predicted groundwater levels. In general, the model results are consistent and reasonable. Thus the developed integrated model approach is seen as a promising tool for the quantification of the agricultural practice impact on groundwater quality.

  13. Understanding Cultural Geography as a Pseudo-Diffusion Process: The Case of the Veneto Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guido Ferilli

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study the cultural geography of the Veneto Region on the basis of a pseudo-diffusion approach to the analysis of the inherent semantic spatial data. We find somewhat surprising results, and, in particular, that Venice, indisputably the Region’s cultural hub in terms of concentration of activities and facilities, global visibility and attraction of resources, plays a marginal role in determining the momentum of cultural initiative at the regional level as of 2007 data. The areas with the greater momentum are relatively marginal ones but characterized by a strong presence of design-oriented companies that are actively engaging in culture-driven innovation in a context of gradually horizontally-integrated clusters. Our findings call for a revision of the traditional policy approaches that identify centralities in terms of concentration of activities and facilities based on past dynamics, and to design policies accordingly. We argue in favour of a more forward-looking, evidence-based approach.

  14. Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2015-04-01

    The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

  15. Understanding Adherence and Prescription Patterns Using Large-Scale Claims Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjarnadóttir, Margrét V; Malik, Sana; Onukwugha, Eberechukwu; Gooden, Tanisha; Plaisant, Catherine

    2016-02-01

    Advanced computing capabilities and novel visual analytics tools now allow us to move beyond the traditional cross-sectional summaries to analyze longitudinal prescription patterns and the impact of study design decisions. For example, design decisions regarding gaps and overlaps in prescription fill data are necessary for measuring adherence using prescription claims data. However, little is known regarding the impact of these decisions on measures of medication possession (e.g., medication possession ratio). The goal of the study was to demonstrate the use of visualization tools for pattern discovery, hypothesis generation, and study design. We utilized EventFlow, a novel discrete event sequence visualization software, to investigate patterns of prescription fills, including gaps and overlaps, utilizing large-scale healthcare claims data. The study analyzes data of individuals who had at least two prescriptions for one of five hypertension medication classes: ACE inhibitors, angiotensin II receptor blockers, beta blockers, calcium channel blockers, and diuretics. We focused on those members initiating therapy with diuretics (19.2%) who may have concurrently or subsequently take drugs in other classes as well. We identified longitudinal patterns in prescription fills for antihypertensive medications, investigated the implications of decisions regarding gap length and overlaps, and examined the impact on the average cost and adherence of the initial treatment episode. A total of 790,609 individuals are included in the study sample, 19.2% (N = 151,566) of whom started on diuretics first during the study period. The average age was 52.4 years and 53.1% of the population was female. When the allowable gap was zero, 34% of the population had continuous coverage and the average length of continuous coverage was 2 months. In contrast, when the allowable gap was 30 days, 69% of the population showed a single continuous prescription period with an average length of 5

  16. A study of regional-scale aerosol assimilation using a Stretch-NICAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misawa, S.; Dai, T.; Schutgens, N.; Nakajima, T.

    2013-12-01

    Although aerosol is considered to be harmful to human health and it became a social issue, aerosol models and emission inventories include large uncertainties. In recent studies, data assimilation is applied to aerosol simulation to get more accurate aerosol field and emission inventory. Most of these studies, however, are carried out only on global scale, and there are only a few researches about regional scale aerosol assimilation. In this study, we have created and verified an aerosol assimilation system on regional scale, in hopes to reduce an error associated with the aerosol emission inventory. Our aerosol assimilation system has been developed using an atmospheric climate model, NICAM (Non-hydrostaric ICosahedral Atmospheric Model; Satoh et al., 2008) with a stretch grid system and coupled with an aerosol transport model, SPRINTARS (Takemura et al., 2000). Also, this assimilation system is based on local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). To validate this system, we used a simulated observational data by adding some artificial errors to the surface aerosol fields constructed by Stretch-NICAM-SPRINTARS. We also included a small perturbation in original emission inventory. This assimilation with modified observational data and emission inventory was performed in Kanto-plane region around Tokyo, Japan, and the result indicates the system reducing a relative error of aerosol concentration by 20%. Furthermore, we examined a sensitivity of the aerosol assimilation system by varying the number of total ensemble (5, 10 and 15 ensembles) and local patch (domain) size (radius of 50km, 100km and 200km), both of which are the tuning parameters in LETKF. The result of the assimilation with different ensemble number 5, 10 and 15 shows that the larger the number of ensemble is, the smaller the relative error become. This is consistent with ensemble Kalman filter theory and imply that this assimilation system works properly. Also we found that assimilation system

  17. Monsoon rainfall behaviour in recent times on local/regional scale in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Surender; Rao, V.U.M.; Singh, Diwan

    2002-08-01

    An attempt has been made here to investigate the local/regional monsoon rainfall behaviour in the meteorological sub-division no. 13 comprising the areas of Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh in India. The monthly monsoon rainfall data of 30 years (1970-99) of different locations in the region were used for the investigation. All locations except Delhi received more rainfall in monsoon season during the decade (1990-99) showing general increasing trend in the rainfall behaviour in recent times. The mean monsoon rainfall at various locations ranged between 324.8 mm at Sirsa and 974.9 mm at Chandigarh. The major amount of monsoon rainfall occurred during the month of July and August in the entire region. Monthly mean rainfall ranged between 37.5 to 144.9 mm (June), 130.6 to 298.2 mm (July), 92.6 to 313.6 mm (August) and 44.0 to 149.4mm (September) at different locations. All the locations in the region exhibited overall increasing trend in monsoon rainfall over the period under study. All locations in the region received their lowest monsoon rainfall in the year 1987 which was a drought year and the season's rainfall ranged between 56.1 mm (Sirsa) and 290.0 mm (Delhi) during this year. Many of the locations observed clusters of fluctuations in their respective monsoon rainfall. The statistical summaries of historical data series (1970-99) gave rainfall information on various time scale. Such information acquires value through its influence on the decision making of the ultimate users. (author)

  18. Regional Scale High Resolution δ18O Prediction in Precipitation Using MODIS EVI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Cho-Ying; Wang, Chung-Ho; Lin, Shou-De; Lo, Yi-Chen; Huang, Bo-Wen; Hatch, Kent A.; Shiu, Hau-Jie; You, Cheng-Feng; Chang, Yuan-Mou; Shen, Sheng-Feng

    2012-01-01

    The natural variation in stable water isotope ratio data, also known as water isoscape, is a spatiotemporal fingerprint and a powerful natural tracer that has been widely applied in disciplines as diverse as hydrology, paleoclimatology, ecology and forensic investigation. Although much effort has been devoted to developing a predictive water isoscape model, it remains a central challenge for scientists to generate high accuracy, fine scale spatiotemporal water isoscape prediction. Here we develop a novel approach of using the MODIS-EVI (the Moderate Resolution Imagining Spectroradiometer-Enhanced Vegetation Index), to predict δ18O in precipitation at the regional scale. Using a structural equation model, we show that the EVI and precipitated δ18O are highly correlated and thus the EVI is a good predictor of precipitated δ18O. We then test the predictability of our EVI-δ18O model and demonstrate that our approach can provide high accuracy with fine spatial (250×250 m) and temporal (16 days) scale δ18O predictions (annual and monthly predictabilities [r] are 0.96 and 0.80, respectively). We conclude the merging of the EVI and δ18O in precipitation can greatly extend the spatial and temporal data availability and thus enhance the applicability for both the EVI and water isoscape. PMID:23029053

  19. Grassland/atmosphere response to changing climate: Coupling regional and local scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coughenour, M.B.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Pielke, R.A.; Eastman, J.

    1993-10-01

    The objectives of the study were: to evaluate the response of grassland ecosystems to atmospheric change at regional and site scales, and to develop multiscaled modeling systems to relate ecological and atmospheric models with different spatial and temporal resolutions. A menu-driven shell was developed to facilitate use of models at different temporal scales and to facilitate exchange information between models at different temporal scales. A detailed ecosystem model predicted that C 3 temperate grasslands wig respond more strongly to elevated CO 2 than temperate C 4 grasslands in the short-term while a large positive N-PP response was predicted for a C 4 Kenyan grassland. Long-term climate change scenarios produced either decreases or increases in Colorado plant productivity (NPP) depending on rainfall, but uniform increases in N-PP were predicted in Kenya. Elevated CO 2 is likely to have little effect on ecosystem carbon storage in Colorado while it will increase carbon storage in Kenya. A synoptic climate classification processor (SCP) was developed to evaluate results of GCM climate sensitivity experiments. Roughly 80% agreement was achieved with manual classifications. Comparison of lx and 2xCO 2 GCM Simulations revealed relatively small differences

  20. Understanding water deficit stress-induced changes in the basic metabolism of higher plants - biotechnologically and sustainably improving agriculture and the ecoenvironment in arid regions of the globe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Hong-Bo; Chu, Li-Ye; Jaleel, C Abdul; Manivannan, P; Panneerselvam, R; Shao, Ming-An

    2009-01-01

    Water is vital for plant growth, development and productivity. Permanent or temporary water deficit stress limits the growth and distribution of natural and artificial vegetation and the performance of cultivated plants (crops) more than any other environmental factor. Productive and sustainable agriculture necessitates growing plants (crops) in arid and semiarid regions with less input of precious resources such as fresh water. For a better understanding and rapid improvement of soil-water stress tolerance in these regions, especially in the water-wind eroded crossing region, it is very important to link physiological and biochemical studies to molecular work in genetically tractable model plants and important native plants, and further extending them to practical ecological restoration and efficient crop production. Although basic studies and practices aimed at improving soil water stress resistance and plant water use efficiency have been carried out for many years, the mechanisms involved at different scales are still not clear. Further understanding and manipulating soil-plant water relationships and soil-water stress tolerance at the scales of ecology, physiology and molecular biology can significantly improve plant productivity and environmental quality. Currently, post-genomics and metabolomics are very important in exploring anti-drought gene resources in various life forms, but modern agriculturally sustainable development must be combined with plant physiological measures in the field, on the basis of which post-genomics and metabolomics have further practical prospects. In this review, we discuss physiological and molecular insights and effects in basic plant metabolism, drought tolerance strategies under drought conditions in higher plants for sustainable agriculture and ecoenvironments in arid and semiarid areas of the world. We conclude that biological measures are the bases for the solutions to the issues relating to the different types of

  1. Improving Shade Modelling in a Regional River Temperature Model Using Fine-Scale LIDAR Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, D. M.; Loicq, P.; Moatar, F.; Beaufort, A.; Melin, E.; Jullian, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Air temperature is often considered as a proxy of the stream temperature to model the distribution areas of aquatic species water temperature is not available at a regional scale. To simulate the water temperature at a regional scale (105 km²), a physically-based model using the equilibrium temperature concept and including upstream-downstream propagation of the thermal signal was developed and applied to the entire Loire basin (Beaufort et al., submitted). This model, called T-NET (Temperature-NETwork) is based on a hydrographical network topology. Computations are made hourly on 52,000 reaches which average 1.7 km long in the Loire drainage basin. The model gives a median Root Mean Square Error of 1.8°C at hourly time step on the basis of 128 water temperature stations (2008-2012). In that version of the model, tree shadings is modelled by a constant factor proportional to the vegetation cover on 10 meters sides the river reaches. According to sensitivity analysis, improving the shade representation would enhance T-NET accuracy, especially for the maximum daily temperatures, which are currently not very well modelized. This study evaluates the most efficient way (accuracy/computing time) to improve the shade model thanks to 1-m resolution LIDAR data available on tributary of the LoireRiver (317 km long and an area of 8280 km²). Two methods are tested and compared: the first one is a spatially explicit computation of the cast shadow for every LIDAR pixel. The second is based on averaged vegetation cover characteristics of buffers and reaches of variable size. Validation of the water temperature model is made against 4 temperature sensors well spread along the stream, as well as two airborne thermal infrared imageries acquired in summer 2014 and winter 2015 over a 80 km reach. The poster will present the optimal length- and crosswise scale to characterize the vegetation from LIDAR data.

  2. Large Scale Skill in Regional Climate Modeling and the Lateral Boundary Condition Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veljović, K.; Rajković, B.; Mesinger, F.

    2009-04-01

    Several points are made concerning the somewhat controversial issue of regional climate modeling: should a regional climate model (RCM) be expected to maintain the large scale skill of the driver global model that is supplying its lateral boundary condition (LBC)? Given that this is normally desired, is it able to do so without help via the fairly popular large scale nudging? Specifically, without such nudging, will the RCM kinetic energy necessarily decrease with time compared to that of the driver model or analysis data as suggested by a study using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)? Finally, can the lateral boundary condition scheme make a difference: is the almost universally used but somewhat costly relaxation scheme necessary for a desirable RCM performance? Experiments are made to explore these questions running the Eta model in two versions differing in the lateral boundary scheme used. One of these schemes is the traditional relaxation scheme, and the other the Eta model scheme in which information is used at the outermost boundary only, and not all variables are prescribed at the outflow boundary. Forecast lateral boundary conditions are used, and results are verified against the analyses. Thus, skill of the two RCM forecasts can be and is compared not only against each other but also against that of the driver global forecast. A novel verification method is used in the manner of customary precipitation verification in that forecast spatial wind speed distribution is verified against analyses by calculating bias adjusted equitable threat scores and bias scores for wind speeds greater than chosen wind speed thresholds. In this way, focusing on a high wind speed value in the upper troposphere, verification of large scale features we suggest can be done in a manner that may be more physically meaningful than verifications via spectral decomposition that are a standard RCM verification method. The results we have at this point are somewhat

  3. A physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides at regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Conventional outputs of physics-based landslide forecasting models are presented as deterministic warnings by calculating the safety factor (Fs of potentially dangerous slopes. However, these models are highly dependent on variables such as cohesion force and internal friction angle which are affected by a high degree of uncertainty especially at a regional scale, resulting in unacceptable uncertainties of Fs. Under such circumstances, the outputs of physical models are more suitable if presented in the form of landslide probability values. In order to develop such models, a method to link the uncertainty of soil parameter values with landslide probability is devised. This paper proposes the use of Monte Carlo methods to quantitatively express uncertainty by assigning random values to physical variables inside a defined interval. The inequality Fs < 1 is tested for each pixel in n simulations which are integrated in a unique parameter. This parameter links the landslide probability to the uncertainties of soil mechanical parameters and is used to create a physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. The prediction ability of this model was tested in a case study, in which simulated forecasting of landslide disasters associated with heavy rainfalls on 9 July 2013 in the Wenchuan earthquake region of Sichuan province, China, was performed. The proposed model successfully forecasted landslides in 159 of the 176 disaster points registered by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province. Such testing results indicate that the new model can be operated in a highly efficient way and show more reliable results, attributable to its high prediction accuracy. Accordingly, the new model can be potentially packaged into a forecasting system for shallow landslides providing technological support for the mitigation of these disasters at regional scale.

  4. Consequences of Regional Scale Nuclear Conflicts and Acts of Individual Nuclear Terrorism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toon, O. B.; Turco, R. P.; Robock, A.; Bardeen, C.; Oman, L.; Stenchikov, G. L.

    2006-12-01

    The number of nuclear warheads in the world has fallen by about a factor of three since its peak in 1986. However, the potential exists for numerous regional nuclear arms races, and for a significant expansion in the number of nuclear weapons states. Eight countries are known to have nuclear weapons, 2 are constructing them, and an additional 32 nations already have the fissile material needed to build weapons if they so desire. Population and economic activity worldwide are congregated to an increasing extent in "megacities", which are ideal targets for nuclear weapons. We find that low yield weapons, which new nuclear powers are likely to construct, can produce 100 times as many fatalities and 100 times as much smoke from fires per kt yield as high-yield weapons, if they are targeted at city centers. A single low-yield nuclear detonation in an urban center could lead to more fatalities, in some cases by orders of magnitude, than have occurred in major historical conflicts. A regional war between the smallest current nuclear states involving 100 15-kt explosions (less than 0.1% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) could produce direct fatalities comparable to all of those worldwide in World War II (WW-II), or to those once estimated for a "counterforce" nuclear war between the superpowers. Portions of megacities attacked with nuclear devices or exposed to fallout of long-lived isotopes, through armed conflict or terrorism, would likely be abandoned indefinitely, with severe national and international implications. Smoke from urban firestorms in a regional war might induce significant climatic and ozone anomalies on global scales. While there are many uncertainties in the issues we discuss here, the major uncertainties are the type and scale of conflict that might occur. Each of these potential hazards deserves careful analysis by governments worldwide advised by a broad section of the world scientific community, as well as widespread

  5. A physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shaojie; Zhao, Luqiang; Delgado-Tellez, Ricardo; Bao, Hongjun

    2018-03-01

    Conventional outputs of physics-based landslide forecasting models are presented as deterministic warnings by calculating the safety factor (Fs) of potentially dangerous slopes. However, these models are highly dependent on variables such as cohesion force and internal friction angle which are affected by a high degree of uncertainty especially at a regional scale, resulting in unacceptable uncertainties of Fs. Under such circumstances, the outputs of physical models are more suitable if presented in the form of landslide probability values. In order to develop such models, a method to link the uncertainty of soil parameter values with landslide probability is devised. This paper proposes the use of Monte Carlo methods to quantitatively express uncertainty by assigning random values to physical variables inside a defined interval. The inequality Fs soil mechanical parameters and is used to create a physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. The prediction ability of this model was tested in a case study, in which simulated forecasting of landslide disasters associated with heavy rainfalls on 9 July 2013 in the Wenchuan earthquake region of Sichuan province, China, was performed. The proposed model successfully forecasted landslides in 159 of the 176 disaster points registered by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province. Such testing results indicate that the new model can be operated in a highly efficient way and show more reliable results, attributable to its high prediction accuracy. Accordingly, the new model can be potentially packaged into a forecasting system for shallow landslides providing technological support for the mitigation of these disasters at regional scale.

  6. Development of a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model to assess population exposure at a regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caudeville, Julien; Bonnard, Roseline; Boudet, Céline; Denys, Sébastien; Govaert, Gérard; Cicolella, André

    2012-01-01

    Analyzing the relationship between the environment and health has become a major focus of public health efforts in France, as evidenced by the national action plans for health and the environment. These plans have identified the following two priorities: -identify and manage geographic areas where hotspot exposures are a potential risk to human health; and -reduce exposure inequalities. The aim of this study is to develop a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model for detecting vulnerable populations and analyzing exposure determinants at a fine resolution and regional scale. A multimedia exposure model was developed by INERIS to assess the transfer of substances from the environment to humans through inhalation and ingestion pathways. The RESPIR project adds a spatial dimension by linking GIS (Geographic Information System) to the model. Tools are developed using modeling, spatial analysis and geostatistic methods to build and discretize interesting variables and indicators from different supports and resolutions on a 1-km 2 regular grid. We applied this model to the risk assessment of exposure to metals (cadmium, lead and nickel) using data from a region in France (Nord-Pas-de-Calais). The considered exposure pathways include the atmospheric contaminant inhalation and ingestion of soil, vegetation, meat, egg, milk, fish and drinking water. Exposure scenarios are defined for different reference groups (age, dietary properties, and the fraction of food produced locally). The two largest risks correspond to an ancient industrial site (Metaleurop) and the Lille agglomeration. In these areas, cadmium, vegetation ingestion and soil contamination are the principal determinants of the computed risk. -- Highlights: ► We present a multimedia exposure model for mapping environmental disparities. ► We perform a risk assessment on a region of France at a fine scale for three metals. ► We examine exposure determinants and detect vulnerable population. ► The largest

  7. Developing strong concurrent multiphysics multiscale coupling to understand the impact of microstructural mechanisms on the structural scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foulk, James W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Alleman, Coleman N. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mota, Alejandro [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lim, Hojun [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Littlewood, David John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bergel, Guy Leshem [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Popova, Evdokia [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States). Woodruff School of Mechanical Engineering; Montes de Oca Zapiain, David [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States). Woodruff School of Mechanical Engineering; Kalidindi, Suryanarayana Raju [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States). Woodruff School of Mechanical Engineering; Ernst, Corey [Elemental Technologies, Provo, UT (United States)

    2017-09-01

    The heterogeneity in mechanical fields introduced by microstructure plays a critical role in the localization of deformation. To resolve this incipient stage of failure, it is therefore necessary to incorporate microstructure with sufficient resolution. On the other hand, computational limitations make it infeasible to represent the microstructure in the entire domain at the component scale. In this study, the authors demonstrate the use of concurrent multi- scale modeling to incorporate explicit, finely resolved microstructure in a critical region while resolving the smoother mechanical fields outside this region with a coarser discretization to limit computational cost. The microstructural physics is modeled with a high-fidelity model that incorporates anisotropic crystal elasticity and rate-dependent crystal plasticity to simulate the behavior of a stainless steel alloy. The component-scale material behavior is treated with a lower fidelity model incorporating isotropic linear elasticity and rate-independent J 2 plas- ticity. The microstructural and component scale subdomains are modeled concurrently, with coupling via the Schwarz alternating method, which solves boundary-value problems in each subdomain separately and transfers solution information between subdomains via Dirichlet boundary conditions. Beyond cases studies in concurrent multiscale, we explore progress in crystal plastic- ity through modular designs, solution methodologies, model verification, and extensions to Sierra/SM and manycore applications. Advances in conformal microstructures having both hexahedral and tetrahedral workflows in Sculpt and Cubit are highlighted. A structure-property case study in two-phase metallic composites applies the Materials Knowledge System to local metrics for void evolution. Discussion includes lessons learned, future work, and a summary of funded efforts and proposed work. Finally, an appendix illustrates the need for two-way coupling through a single degree of

  8. Regional-scale analysis of lake outburst hazards in the southwestern Pamir, Tajikistan, based on remote sensing and GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mergili

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of the hazards emanating from the sudden drainage of alpine lakes in South-Western Tajik Pamir. In the last 40 yr, several new lakes have formed in the front of retreating glacier tongues, and existing lakes have grown. Other lakes are dammed by landslide deposits or older moraines. In 2002, sudden drainage of a glacial lake in the area triggered a catastrophic debris flow. Building on existing approaches, a rating scheme was devised allowing quick, regional-scale identification of potentially hazardous lakes and possible impact areas. This approach relies on GIS, remote sensing and empirical modelling, largely based on medium-resolution international datasets. Out of the 428 lakes mapped in the area, 6 were rated very hazardous and 34 hazardous. This classification was used for the selection of lakes requiring in-depth investigation. Selected cases are presented and discussed in order to understand the potentials and limitations of the approach used. Such an understanding is essential for the appropriate application of the methodology for risk mitigation purposes.

  9. The implementation of sea ice model on a regional high-resolution scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Siva; Zakharov, Igor; Bobby, Pradeep; McGuire, Peter

    2015-09-01

    The availability of high-resolution atmospheric/ocean forecast models, satellite data and access to high-performance computing clusters have provided capability to build high-resolution models for regional ice condition simulation. The paper describes the implementation of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) on a regional scale at high resolution. The advantage of the model is its ability to include oceanographic parameters (e.g., currents) to provide accurate results. The sea ice simulation was performed over Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea to retrieve important parameters such as ice concentration, thickness, ridging, and drift. Two different forcing models, one with low resolution and another with a high resolution, were used for the estimation of sensitivity of model results. Sea ice behavior over 7 years was simulated to analyze ice formation, melting, and conditions in the region. Validation was based on comparing model results with remote sensing data. The simulated ice concentration correlated well with Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) and Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF) data. Visual comparison of ice thickness trends estimated from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite (SMOS) agreed with the simulation for year 2010-2011.

  10. The notions of resilience in spatial planning for drought - flood coexistence (DFC) at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trong Hoa, Nguyen; Vinh, Nguyen Quoc

    2018-04-01

    The notions of urban resilience and resilient city has been developed in the 2000s [1], four decades since the first concept of ecological resilience was originally introduced in the 1970s by ecologist C.S. Holling [2]. However, they have attracted great attentions and interests, in both academia and urban governance, then in planning practice over recent years. The first two sections of this paper examine the term resilience in ecological systems, urban systems, in spatial planning and in urban design. Specific attention of the paper, introduced in the third part, is to investigate resilience in the context of drought-flood coexistence (DFC), revolving two key objects and their interactions: DFC and urban at regional scale. Flood and drought events, in their turns intertwine in natural correlation, which is also reviewed. These relationships are literally investigated, to prove that they interplay mutually with each other, and that once a city develops in relation with water cycle at a regional context, in arid zone, not only hydrological drought could be regionally decreased, but human-induced floods could be ecologically regulated. The study concludes in the fourth, together with lessons from relevant case studies in America, China, with some principles on spatial planning, resilient/adaptive to DFC, which could be ecologically managed in correlation with urban development on a sustainable pathway.

  11. Scale and watershed features determine lake chemistry patterns across physiographic regions in the far north of Ontario, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef MacLeod

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Changes in the far north of Ontario (>50°N latitude, like climate warming and increased industrial development, will have direct effects on watershed characteristics and lakes. To better understand the nature of remote northern lakes that span the Canadian Shield and Hudson Bay Lowlands, and to address the pressing need for limnological data for this vast, little-studied area of Ontario, lake chemistry surveys were conducted during 2011-2012. Lakes at the transition between these physiographic regions displayed highly variable water chemistry, reflecting the peatland landscape with a mix of bog and fen watersheds, and variations in the extent of permafrost. In the transition area, Shield and Lowlands lakes could not be clearly differentiated based on water chemistry; peat cover decouples, to varying degrees, the lakes from the influences of bedrock and surficial deposits. Regional chemistry differences were apparent across a much broader area of northern Ontario, due to large-scale spatial changes in geology and in the extent of peatlands and permafrost.  Shield lakes in the far northwest of Ontario had Ca, Mg, and TP concentrations markedly higher than those of many Lowlands lakes and previously studied Shield lakes south of 50°N, related to an abundance of lacustrine and glacial end-moraine deposits in the north.

  12. An integrated approach to scale up the market penetration of low carbon technologies in developing countries and water scarce regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Michelle Angela

    Water scarcity is a global challenge that stifles social and economic growth. There is a growing concern to examine the water-energy nexus to understand the importance of applying energy and water interactions to technology. In developing countries there are many communities that live off-grid in remote region with no access to electricity or clean water. Additionally, there are developed countries that are located in regions with electricity but no access to clean water. Recent developments in renewable energy technology and energy policies have greatly reduced the costs of renewable energy making them more attractive and affordable. The purpose of this dissertation is to evaluate the main barriers to deploying renewables to non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (non-OECD) countries and member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This dissertation examines the potential of renewable desalination technology systems across emerging countries. The findings of this research can serve as the basis for investors interested in entering this market. The combined chapters seek to address potential problems regarding the costs, methods, and tools required for the implementation of the appropriate water purification technologies for off-grid, community scale infrastructures.

  13. Assessing Canadian inventories to understand the environmental impacts of mercury releases to the Great Lakes region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trip, Luke; Bender, Tonya; Niemi, David

    2004-01-01

    North American pollutant release and transfer registries have been continuously developing with an eye to understanding source/receptor relationships and ensuring that the polluter-paid principle is applied to the appropriate parties. The potential contribution of mercury to the Great Lakes Basin arising from the rerelease of historic mercury pollution from contaminated aquatic and terrestrial media is poorly understood and the subject of concern. Although a considerable amount of data may be available on the atmospheric component of mercury releases to the Basin, further inventory work is needed to quantify the rerelease of the historic mercury. Much of the related existing inventory information is either not derived from direct measurement or not bounded by a mass-balance accounting. Critical to this determination is an increased confidence in the inventories of mercury from past and current practices. This may be enhanced through comprehensive and thorough surveys of contributions from specific products and their life-cycle assessments. An even greater challenge is to determine the bioavailability of the mercury emanating from land-based sources and from aquatic media. This paper describes the interplay among the sources and receptors of mercury and provides a quantitative assessment of current Canadian contributions of mercury as a contaminant to the Great Lakes. Recommendations for improved assessments are provided

  14. Understanding the Spatial Scale of Genetic Connectivity at Sea: Unique Insights from a Land Fish and a Meta-Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina M Cooke

    Full Text Available Quantifying the spatial scale of population connectivity is important for understanding the evolutionary potential of ecologically divergent populations and for designing conservation strategies to preserve those populations. For marine organisms like fish, the spatial scale of connectivity is generally set by a pelagic larval phase. This has complicated past estimates of connectivity because detailed information on larval movements are difficult to obtain. Genetic approaches provide a tractable alternative and have the added benefit of estimating directly the reproductive isolation of populations. In this study, we leveraged empirical estimates of genetic differentiation among populations with simulations and a meta-analysis to provide a general estimate of the spatial scale of genetic connectivity in marine environments. We used neutral genetic markers to first quantify the genetic differentiation of ecologically-isolated adult populations of a land dwelling fish, the Pacific leaping blenny (Alticus arnoldorum, where marine larval dispersal is the only probable means of connectivity among populations. We then compared these estimates to simulations of a range of marine dispersal scenarios and to collated FST and distance data from the literature for marine fish across diverse spatial scales. We found genetic connectivity at sea was extensive among marine populations and in the case of A. arnoldorum, apparently little affected by the presence of ecological barriers. We estimated that ~5000 km (with broad confidence intervals ranging from 810-11,692 km was the spatial scale at which evolutionarily meaningful barriers to gene flow start to occur at sea, although substantially shorter distances are also possible for some taxa. In general, however, such a large estimate of connectivity has important implications for the evolutionary and conservation potential of many marine fish communities.

  15. A New WRF-Chem Treatment for Studying Regional Scale Impacts of Cloud-Aerosol Interactions in Parameterized Cumuli

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berg, Larry K.; Shrivastava, ManishKumar B.; Easter, Richard C.; Fast, Jerome D.; Chapman, Elaine G.; Liu, Ying

    2015-01-01

    A new treatment of cloud-aerosol interactions within parameterized shallow and deep convection has been implemented in WRF-Chem that can be used to better understand the aerosol lifecycle over regional to synoptic scales. The modifications to the model to represent cloud-aerosol interactions include treatment of the cloud dropletnumber mixing ratio; key cloud microphysical and macrophysical parameters (including the updraft fractional area, updraft and downdraft mass fluxes, and entrainment) averaged over the population of shallow clouds, or a single deep convective cloud; and vertical transport, activation/resuspension, aqueous chemistry, and wet removal of aerosol and trace gases in warm clouds. Thesechanges have been implemented in both the WRF-Chem chemistry packages as well as the Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization that has been modified to better represent shallow convective clouds. Preliminary testing of the modified WRF-Chem has been completed using observations from the Cumulus Humilis Aerosol Processing Study (CHAPS) as well as a high-resolution simulation that does not include parameterized convection. The simulation results are used to investigate the impact of cloud-aerosol interactions on the regional scale transport of black carbon (BC), organic aerosol (OA), and sulfate aerosol. Based on the simulations presented here, changes in the column integrated BC can be as large as -50% when cloud-aerosol interactions are considered (due largely to wet removal), or as large as +35% for sulfate in non-precipitating conditions due to the sulfate production in the parameterized clouds. The modifications to WRF-Chem version 3.2.1 are found to account for changes in the cloud drop number concentration (CDNC) and changes in the chemical composition of cloud-drop residuals in a way that is consistent with observations collected during CHAPS. Efforts are currently underway to port the changes described here to WRF-Chem version 3.5, and it is anticipated that they

  16. Regional-scale winter-spring temperature variability and chilling damage dynamics over the past two centuries in southeastern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duan, Jianping; Zhang, Qi-Bin; Lv, Lixin; Zhang, Chao [Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Beijing (China)

    2012-08-15

    Winter-spring cold extreme is a kind of serious natural disaster for southeastern China. As such events are recorded in discrete documents, long and continuous records are required to understand their characteristics and driving forces. Here we report a regional-scale winter-spring (January-April) temperature reconstruction based on a tree-ring network of pine trees (Pinus massoniana) from five sampling sites over a large spatial scale (25-29 N, 111-115 E) in southeastern China. The regional tree-ring chronology explains 48.6% of the instrumental temperature variance during the period 1957-2008. The reconstruction shows six relatively warm intervals (i.e., {proportional_to}1849-1855, {proportional_to}1871-1888, {proportional_to}1909-1920, {proportional_to}1939-1944, {proportional_to}1958-1968, 1997-2007) and five cold intervals (i.e., {proportional_to}1860-1870, {proportional_to}1893-1908, {proportional_to}1925-1934, {proportional_to}1945-1957, {proportional_to}1982-1996) during 1849-2008. The last decade and the 1930s were the warmest and coldest decades, respectively, in the past 160 years. The composite analysis of 500-hPa geopotential height fields reveals that distinctly different circulation patterns occurred in the instrumental and pre-instrumental periods. The winter-spring cold extremes in southeastern China are associated with Ural-High ridge pattern for the instrumental period (1957-2008), whereas the cold extremes in pre-instrumental period (1871-1956) are associated with North circulation pattern. (orig.)

  17. New Possibilities for High-Resolution, Large-Scale Ecosystem Assessment of the World's Semi-Arid Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burney, J. A.; Goldblatt, R.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding drivers of land use change - and in particular, levels of ecosystem degradation - in semi-arid regions is of critical importance because these agroecosystems (1) are home to the world's poorest populations, almost all of whom depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, (2) play a critical role in the global carbon and climate cycles, and (3) have in many cases seen dramatic changes in temperature and precipitation, relative to global averages, over the past several decades. However, assessing ecosystem health (or, conversely, degradation) presents a difficult measurement problem. Established methods are very labor intensive and rest on detailed questionnaires and field assessments. High-resolution satellite imagery has a unique role semi-arid ecosystem assessment in that it can be used for rapid (or repeated) and very simple measurements of tree and shrub density, an excellent overall indicator for dryland ecosystem health. Because trees and large shrubs are more sparse in semi-arid regions, sub-meter resolution imagery in conjunction with automated image analysis can be used to assess density differences at high spatial resolution without expensive and time-consuming ground-truthing. This could be used down to the farm level, for example, to better assess the larger-scale ecosystem impacts of different management practices, to assess compliance with REDD+ carbon offset protocols, or to evaluate implementation of conservation goals. Here we present results comparing spatial and spectral remote sensing methods for semi-arid ecosystem assessment across new data sources, using the Brazilian Sertão as an example, and the implications for large-scale use in semi-arid ecosystem science.

  18. Top-down constraints on disturbance dynamics in the terrestrial carbon cycle: effects at global and regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.

    2014-12-01

    Large uncertainties preside over terrestrial carbon flux estimates on a global scale. In particular, the strongly coupled dynamics between net ecosystem productivity and disturbance C losses are poorly constrained. To gain an improved understanding of ecosystem C dynamics from regional to global scale, we apply a Markov Chain Monte Carlo based model-data-fusion approach into the CArbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM). We assimilate MODIS LAI and burned area, plant-trait data, and use the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) and maps of above ground biomass as prior knowledge for initial conditions. We optimize model parameters based on (a) globally spanning observations and (b) ecological and dynamic constraints that force single parameter values and parameter inter-dependencies to be representative of real world processes. We determine the spatial and temporal dynamics of major terrestrial C fluxes and model parameter values on a global scale (GPP = 123 +/- 8 Pg C yr-1 & NEE = -1.8 +/- 2.7 Pg C yr-1). We further show that the incorporation of disturbance fluxes, and accounting for their instantaneous or delayed effect, is of critical importance in constraining global C cycle dynamics, particularly in the tropics. In a higher resolution case study centred on the Amazon Basin we show how fires not only trigger large instantaneous emissions of burned matter, but also how they are responsible for a sustained reduction of up to 50% in plant uptake following the depletion of biomass stocks. The combination of these two fire-induced effects leads to a 1 g C m-2 d-1reduction in the strength of the net terrestrial carbon sink. Through our simulations at regional and global scale, we advocate the need to assimilate disturbance metrics in global terrestrial carbon cycle models to bridge the gap between globally spanning terrestrial carbon cycle data and the full dynamics of the ecosystem C cycle. Disturbances are especially important because their quick occurrence may have

  19. Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toon, O. B.; Turco, R. P.; Robock, A.; Bardeen, C.; Oman, L.; Stenchikov, G. L.

    2007-04-01

    We assess the potential damage and smoke production associated with the detonation of small nuclear weapons in modern megacities. While the number of nuclear warheads in the world has fallen by about a factor of three since its peak in 1986, the number of nuclear weapons states is increasing and the potential exists for numerous regional nuclear arms races. Eight countries are known to have nuclear weapons, 2 are constructing them, and an additional 32 nations already have the fissile material needed to build substantial arsenals of low-yield (Hiroshima-sized) explosives. Population and economic activity worldwide are congregated to an increasing extent in megacities, which might be targeted in a nuclear conflict. We find that low yield weapons, which new nuclear powers are likely to construct, can produce 100 times as many fatalities and 100 times as much smoke from fires per kt yield as previously estimated in analyses for full scale nuclear wars using high-yield weapons, if the small weapons are targeted at city centers. A single "small" nuclear detonation in an urban center could lead to more fatalities, in some cases by orders of magnitude, than have occurred in the major historical conflicts of many countries. We analyze the likely outcome of a regional nuclear exchange involving 100 15-kt explosions (less than 0.1% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal). We find that such an exchange could produce direct fatalities comparable to all of those worldwide in World War II, or to those once estimated for a "counterforce" nuclear war between the superpowers. Megacities exposed to atmospheric fallout of long-lived radionuclides would likely be abandoned indefinitely, with severe national and international implications. Our analysis shows that smoke from urban firestorms in a regional war would rise into the upper troposphere due to pyro-convection. Robock et al. (2007) show that the smoke would subsequently rise deep into the stratosphere due

  20. Phosphorus management in cropping systems of the Paris Basin: From farm to regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Noë, Julia; Garnier, Josette; Billen, Gilles

    2018-01-01

    The sustainability of phosphorus (P) fertilization in cropping systems is an important issue because P resources on earth are limited and excess P in soils can lead to ecological damage such as eutrophication. Worldwide, there is an increasing interest in organic farming (OF) due to its good environmental performance. However, organic cropping systems are suspected of generating negative P budgets, which questions their ability to provide sustainable P management. The design of agricultural systems at a broader scale also largely influences the shape of the P cycle and the possibility of its recycling to cropland. In this context, the aim of this study was to assess the relative influence of (i) OF versus conventional farming (CF) practices and (ii) the structure of agro-food systems at the regional scale, on P cycling and availability on cropland. For this purpose, we examined P budgets and soil P status of 14 organic and conventional cropping systems in commercial farms located in the Paris Basin. Available P was analyzed using two different methods: resin P and Olsen P. The results revealed no significant differences between CF and OF in available P stocks. Phosphorus budgets were always negative and significantly lower in CF systems, indicating that P was mined from soil reserves. In parallel, we estimated P budgets over cropland in all French regions for two distinct periods, 2004-2014 and 1970-1981, and showed that specialized intensive cropping systems in the Paris Basin led to a high, positive P budget in the latter period. However, this trend was reversed in the 2004-2014 period due to a sharp reduction of the mineral fertilizer application rate. The shift from very high P budgets to much lower and sometimes negative P budgets would not be a threat for agriculture due to the current high level of Olsen P in these regions, which was consistent with our measurements at the plot scale. Overall, these results suggest that OF would not lead to more P deficiency

  1. Evaluation of Tsunami Run-Up on Coastal Areas at Regional Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, M.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Gutiérrez, O.

    2017-12-01

    Tsunami hazard assessment is tackled by means of numerical simulations, giving as a result, the areas flooded by tsunami wave inland. To get this, some input data is required, i.e., the high resolution topobathymetry of the study area, the earthquake focal mechanism parameters, etc. The computational cost of these kinds of simulations are still excessive. An important restriction for the elaboration of large scale maps at National or regional scale is the reconstruction of high resolution topobathymetry on the coastal zone. An alternative and traditional method consists of the application of empirical-analytical formulations to calculate run-up at several coastal profiles (i.e. Synolakis, 1987), combined with numerical simulations offshore without including coastal inundation. In this case, the numerical simulations are faster but some limitations are added as the coastal bathymetric profiles are very simply idealized. In this work, we present a complementary methodology based on a hybrid numerical model, formed by 2 models that were coupled ad hoc for this work: a non-linear shallow water equations model (NLSWE) for the offshore part of the propagation and a Volume of Fluid model (VOF) for the areas near the coast and inland, applying each numerical scheme where they better reproduce the tsunami wave. The run-up of a tsunami scenario is obtained by applying the coupled model to an ad-hoc numerical flume. To design this methodology, hundreds of worldwide topobathymetric profiles have been parameterized, using 5 parameters (2 depths and 3 slopes). In addition, tsunami waves have been also parameterized by their height and period. As an application of the numerical flume methodology, the coastal parameterized profiles and tsunami waves have been combined to build a populated database of run-up calculations. The combination was tackled by means of numerical simulations in the numerical flume The result is a tsunami run-up database that considers real profiles shape

  2. Understanding the impact of recent advances in isoprene photooxidation on simulations of regional air quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Xie

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality us model in combination with observations for INTEX-NA/ICARTT (Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment–North America/International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation 2004 are used to evaluate recent advances in isoprene oxidation chemistry and provide constraints on isoprene nitrate yields, isoprene nitrate lifetimes, and NOx recycling rates. We incorporate recent advances in isoprene oxidation chemistry into the SAPRC-07 chemical mechanism within the US EPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency CMAQ model. The results show improved model performance for a range of species compared against aircraft observations from the INTEX-NA/ICARTT 2004 field campaign. We further investigate the key processes in isoprene nitrate chemistry and evaluate the impact of uncertainties in the isoprene nitrate yield, NOx (NOx = NO + NO2 recycling efficiency, dry deposition velocity, and RO2 + HO2 reaction rates. We focus our examination on the southeastern United States, which is impacted by both abundant isoprene emissions and high levels of anthropogenic pollutants. We find that NOx concentrations increase by 4–9% as a result of reduced removal by isoprene nitrate chemistry. O3 increases by 2 ppbv as a result of changes in NOx. OH concentrations increase by 30%, which can be primarily attributed to greater HOx production. We find that the model can capture observed total alkyl and multifunctional nitrates (∑ANs and their relationship with O3 by assuming either an isoprene nitrate yield of 6% and daytime lifetime of 6 hours or a yield of 12% and lifetime of 4 h. Uncertainties in the isoprene nitrates can impact ozone production by 10% and OH concentrations by 6%. The uncertainties in NOx recycling efficiency appear to have larger effects than uncertainties in isoprene nitrate yield and dry deposition velocity. Further progress depends on improved understanding of

  3. Next-Generation Satellite Precipitation Products for Understanding Global and Regional Water Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Arthur Y.

    2011-01-01

    A major challenge in understanding the space-time variability of continental water fluxes is the lack of accurate precipitation estimates over complex terrains. While satellite precipitation observations can be used to complement ground-based data to obtain improved estimates, space-based and ground-based estimates come with their own sets of uncertainties, which must be understood and characterized. Quantitative estimation of uncertainties in these products also provides a necessary foundation for merging satellite and ground-based precipitation measurements within a rigorous statistical framework. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is an international satellite mission that will provide next-generation global precipitation data products for research and applications. It consists of a constellation of microwave sensors provided by NASA, JAXA, CNES, ISRO, EUMETSAT, DOD, NOAA, NPP, and JPSS. At the heart of the mission is the GPM Core Observatory provided by NASA and JAXA to be launched in 2013. The GPM Core, which will carry the first space-borne dual-frequency radar and a state-of-the-art multi-frequency radiometer, is designed to set new reference standards for precipitation measurements from space, which can then be used to unify and refine precipitation retrievals from all constellation sensors. The next-generation constellation-based satellite precipitation estimates will be characterized by intercalibrated radiometric measurements and physical-based retrievals using a common observation-derived hydrometeor database. For pre-launch algorithm development and post-launch product evaluation, NASA supports an extensive ground validation (GV) program in cooperation with domestic and international partners to improve (1) physics of remote-sensing algorithms through a series of focused field campaigns, (2) characterization of uncertainties in satellite and ground-based precipitation products over selected GV testbeds, and (3) modeling of atmospheric processes and

  4. Soil organic matter change - analysis on a regional scale of Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruendling, Ralf; Franko, Uwe; Sedy, Katrin; Freudenschuß, Alexandra; Spiegel, Adelheid; Formayer, Herbert

    2014-05-01

    Soil organic matter (SOM) is an important resource in agriculture. It influences soil fertility, erosion processes and prevents soil degradation. However, SOM is strongly affected by climate change, soil conditions and management alterations. The presented study analyzes SOM changes in Austria on a regional scale in the "Marchfeld" and the "Muehlviertel". For quantification these SOM changes the model CCB (Candy Carbon Balance) was used. Based on a 1 square kilometer raster, the impact of specific site conditions on SOM are determined to characterize the study areas. Used as a main indicator for these conditions is the biologic active time (BAT). BAT describes the biologic activity for carbon cycling in top soils depending on soil and climatic conditions. High values of BAT indicate fast SOM reproduction rates. Hence, BAT changes over last years signpost the risk of SOM loss and can be used as an on-farm decision tool. The change of risks of SOM loss due to climate change is assessed by model results. Therefore, three climate scenarios are used to compute reproduction rates of SOM. "High risk-regions" can be identified for policy consulting. Different climate scenarios can help to develop best case and worst case results. First results show that the region "Marchfeld" had a higher change in BAT during last 2 decades comparing to the "Muehlviertel". A higher risk of SOM loosing is evident. Nevertheless, future scenarios predict a higher change of BAT for the "Muehlviertel". Apparently, the sensitivity of "Marchfeld" sites regard to climate change has been higher in the past and most BAT changes took place until now. With this method an evaluation of farm management in regard to SOM reproduction and recommendation of crop rotations for the future are possible. In conclusion, the aim of the project is a tool box for farmers and policy makers to evaluate present and future agricultural management. An examination of additional regions in Austria is planned.

  5. The UNH Earth Systems Observatory: A Regional Application in Support of GEOSS Global-Scale Objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorosmarty, C. J.; Braswell, B.; Fekete, B.; Glidden, S.; Hartmann, H.; Magill, A.; Prusevich, A.; Wollheim, W.; Blaha, D.; Justice, D.; Hurtt, G.; Jacobs, J.; Ollinger, S.; McDowell, W.; Rock, B.; Rubin, F.; Schloss, A.

    2006-12-01

    The Northeast corridor of the US is emblematic of the many changes taking place across the nation's and indeed the world's watersheds. Because ecosystem and watershed change occurs over many scales and is so multifaceted, transferring scientific knowledge to applications as diverse as remediation of local ground water pollution, setting State-wide best practices for non-point source pollution control, enforcing regional carbon sequestration treaties, or creating public/private partnerships for protecting ecosystem services requires a new generation of integrative environmental surveillance systems, information technology, and information transfer to the user community. Geographically complex ecosystem interactions justify moving toward more integrative, regionally-based management strategies to deal with issues affecting land, inland waterways, and coastal waterways. A unified perspective that considers the full continuum of processes which link atmospheric forcings, terrestrial responses, watershed exports along drainage networks, and the final delivery to the coastal zone, nearshore, and off shore waters is required to adequately support the management challenge. A recent inventory of NOAA-supported environmental surveillance systems, IT resources, new sensor technologies, and management-relevant decision support systems shows the community poised to formulate an integrated and operational picture of the environment of New England. This paper presents the conceptual framework and early products of the newly-created UNH Earth Systems Observatory. The goal of the UNH Observatory is to serve as a regionally-focused yet nationally-prominent platform for observation-based, integrative science and management of the New England/Gulf of Maine's land, air, and ocean environmental systems. Development of the UNH Observatory is being guided by the principles set forth under the Global Earth Observation System of Systems and is cast as an end-to-end prototype for GEOSS

  6. Recent Regional Climate State and Change - Derived through Downscaling Homogeneous Large-scale Components of Re-analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Storch, H.; Klehmet, K.; Geyer, B.; Li, D.; Schubert-Frisius, M.; Tim, N.; Zorita, E.

    2015-12-01

    Global re-analyses suffer from inhomogeneities, as they process data from networks under development. However, the large-scale component of such re-analyses is mostly homogeneous; additional observational data add in most cases to a better description of regional details and less so on large-scale states. Therefore, the concept of downscaling may be applied to homogeneously complementing the large-scale state of the re-analyses with regional detail - wherever the condition of homogeneity of the large-scales is fulfilled. Technically this can be done by using a regional climate model, or a global climate model, which is constrained on the large scale by spectral nudging. This approach has been developed and tested for the region of Europe, and a skillful representation of regional risks - in particular marine risks - was identified. While the data density in Europe is considerably better than in most other regions of the world, even here insufficient spatial and temporal coverage is limiting risk assessments. Therefore, downscaled data-sets are frequently used by off-shore industries. We have run this system also in regions with reduced or absent data coverage, such as the Lena catchment in Siberia, in the Yellow Sea/Bo Hai region in East Asia, in Namibia and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. Also a global (large scale constrained) simulation has been. It turns out that spatially detailed reconstruction of the state and change of climate in the three to six decades is doable for any region of the world.The different data sets are archived and may freely by used for scientific purposes. Of course, before application, a careful analysis of the quality for the intended application is needed, as sometimes unexpected changes in the quality of the description of large-scale driving states prevail.

  7. LifeWatch - a Large-scale eScience Infrastructure to Assist in Understanding and Managing our Planet's Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández Ernst, Vera; Poigné, Axel; Los, Walter

    2010-05-01

    Understanding and managing the complexity of the biodiversity system in relation to global changes concerning land use and climate change with their social and economic implications is crucial to mitigate species loss and biodiversity changes in general. The sustainable development and exploitation of existing biodiversity resources require flexible and powerful infrastructures offering, on the one hand, the access to large-scale databases of observations and measures, to advanced analytical and modelling software, and to high performance computing environments and, on the other hand, the interlinkage of European scientific communities among each others and with national policies. The European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI) selected the "LifeWatch e-science and technology infrastructure for biodiversity research" as a promising development to construct facilities to contribute to meet those challenges. LifeWatch collaborates with other selected initiatives (e.g. ICOS, ANAEE, NOHA, and LTER-Europa) to achieve the integration of the infrastructures at landscape and regional scales. This should result in a cooperating cluster of such infrastructures supporting an integrated approach for data capture and transmission, data management and harmonisation. Besides, facilities for exploration, forecasting, and presentation using heterogeneous and distributed data and tools should allow the interdisciplinary scientific research at any spatial and temporal scale. LifeWatch is an example of a new generation of interoperable research infrastructures based on standards and a service-oriented architecture that allow for linkage with external resources and associated infrastructures. External data sources will be established data aggregators as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) for species occurrences and other EU Networks of Excellence like the Long-Term Ecological Research Network (LTER), GMES, and GEOSS for terrestrial monitoring, the

  8. Understanding the poultry trade network in Kenya: Implications for regional disease prevention and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarron, Margaret; Munyua, Peninah; Cheng, Po-Yung; Manga, Thomas; Wanjohi, Cathryn; Moen, Ann; Mounts, Anthony; Katz, Mark A

    2015-07-01

    Infectious diseases in poultry can spread quickly and lead to huge economic losses. In the past decade, on multiple continents, the accelerated spread of highly pathogenic avian Influenza A (H5N1) virus, often through informal trade networks, has led to the death and culling of hundreds of millions of poultry. Endemic poultry diseases like Newcastle disease and fowl typhoid can also be devastating in many parts of the world. Understanding trade networks in unregulated systems can inform policy decisions concerning disease prevention and containment. From June to December 2008 we conducted a cross-sectional survey of backyard farmers, market traders, and middlemen in 5/8 provinces in Kenya. We administered a standardized questionnaire to each type of actor using convenience, random, snowball, and systematic sampling. Questionnaires addressed frequency, volume, and geography of trade, as well as biosecurity practices. We created a network diagram identifying the most important locations for trade. Of 380 respondents, 51% were backyard farmers, 24% were middlemen and 25% were market traders. Half (50%) of backyard farmers said they raised poultry both for household consumption and for sale. Compared to market traders, middlemen bought their poultry from a greater number of villages (median 4.2 villages for middlemen vs. 1.9 for market traders). Traders were most likely to purchase poultry from backyard farmers. Of the backyard farmers who sold poultry, 51% [CI 40-63] reported selling poultry to market traders, and 54% [CI 44-63] sold to middlemen. Middlemen moved the largest volume of poultry on a weekly basis (median purchases: 187 birds/week [IQR 206]; median sales: 188 birds/week [IQR 412.5]). The highest numbers of birds were traded in Nairobi - Kenya's capital city. Nairobi was the most prominent trading node in the network (61 degrees of centrality). Many smaller sub-networks existed as a result of clustered local trade. Market traders were also integral to the

  9. A data-model integration approach toward improved understanding on wetland functions and hydrological benefits at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeo, I. Y.; Lang, M.; Lee, S.; Huang, C.; Jin, H.; McCarty, G.; Sadeghi, A.

    2017-12-01

    The wetland ecosystem plays crucial roles in improving hydrological function and ecological integrity for the downstream water and the surrounding landscape. However, changing behaviours and functioning of wetland ecosystems are poorly understood and extremely difficult to characterize. Improved understanding on hydrological behaviours of wetlands, considering their interaction with surrounding landscapes and impacts on downstream waters, is an essential first step toward closing the knowledge gap. We present an integrated wetland-catchment modelling study that capitalizes on recently developed inundation maps and other geospatial data. The aim of the data-model integration is to improve spatial prediction of wetland inundation and evaluate cumulative hydrological benefits at the catchment scale. In this paper, we highlight problems arising from data preparation, parameterization, and process representation in simulating wetlands within a distributed catchment model, and report the recent progress on mapping of wetland dynamics (i.e., inundation) using multiple remotely sensed data. We demonstrate the value of spatially explicit inundation information to develop site-specific wetland parameters and to evaluate model prediction at multi-spatial and temporal scales. This spatial data-model integrated framework is tested using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with improved wetland extension, and applied for an agricultural watershed in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA. This study illustrates necessity of spatially distributed information and a data integrated modelling approach to predict inundation of wetlands and hydrologic function at the local landscape scale, where monitoring and conservation decision making take place.

  10. ADVANCING THE FUNDAMENTAL UNDERSTANDING AND SCALE-UP OF TRISO FUEL COATERS VIA ADVANCED MEASUREMENT AND COMPUTATIONAL TECHNIQUES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biswas, Pratim; Al-Dahhan, Muthanna

    2012-11-01

    Tri-isotropic (TRISO) fuel particle coating is critical for the future use of nuclear energy produced byadvanced gas reactors (AGRs). The fuel kernels are coated using chemical vapor deposition in a spouted fluidized bed. The challenges encountered in operating TRISO fuel coaters are due to the fact that in modern AGRs, such as High Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGRs), the acceptable level of defective/failed coated particles is essentially zero. This specification requires processes that produce coated spherical particles with even coatings having extremely low defect fractions. Unfortunately, the scale-up and design of the current processes and coaters have been based on empirical approaches and are operated as black boxes. Hence, a voluminous amount of experimental development and trial and error work has been conducted. It has been clearly demonstrated that the quality of the coating applied to the fuel kernels is impacted by the hydrodynamics, solids flow field, and flow regime characteristics of the spouted bed coaters, which themselves are influenced by design parameters and operating variables. Further complicating the outlook for future fuel-coating technology and nuclear energy production is the fact that a variety of new concepts will involve fuel kernels of different sizes and with compositions of different densities. Therefore, without a fundamental understanding the underlying phenomena of the spouted bed TRISO coater, a significant amount of effort is required for production of each type of particle with a significant risk of not meeting the specifications. This difficulty will significantly and negatively impact the applications of AGRs for power generation and cause further challenges to them as an alternative source of commercial energy production. Accordingly, the proposed work seeks to overcome such hurdles and advance the scale-up, design, and performance of TRISO fuel particle spouted bed coaters. The overall objectives of the proposed work are

  11. Dissecting the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale severity scale to understand the routes for symptomatic improvement in obsessive-compulsive disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Daniel L da Conceição; Barbosa, Veronica S; Requena, Guaraci; Shavitt, Roseli G; Pereira, Carlos A de Bragança; Diniz, Juliana B

    2017-10-01

    We aimed to investigate which items of the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Severity Scale best discriminate the reduction in total scores in obsessive-compulsive disorder patients after 4 and 12 weeks of pharmacological treatment. Data from 112 obsessive-compulsive disorder patients who received fluoxetine (⩽80 mg/day) for 12 weeks were included. Improvement indices were built for each Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Severity Scale item at two timeframes: from baseline to week 4 and from baseline to week 12. Indices for each item were correlated with the total scores for obsessions and compulsions and then ranked by correlation coefficient. A correlation coefficient ⩾0.7 was used to identify items that contributed significantly to reducing obsessive-compulsive disorder severity. At week 4, the distress items reached the threshold of 0.7 for improvement on the obsession and compulsion subscales although, contrary to our expectations, there was greater improvement in the control items than in the distress items. At week 12, there was greater improvement in the time, interference, and control items than in the distress items. The use of fluoxetine led first to reductions in distress and increases in control over symptoms before affecting the time spent on, and interference from, obsessions and compulsions. Resistance did not correlate with overall improvement. Understanding the pathway of improvement with pharmacological treatment in obsessive-compulsive disorder may provide clues about how to optimize the effects of medication.

  12. Disturbance to desert soil ecosystems contributes to dust-mediated impacts at regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pointing, Stephen B.; Belnap, Jayne

    2014-01-01

    This review considers the regional scale of impacts arising from disturbance to desert soil ecosystems. Deserts occupy over one-third of the Earth’s terrestrial surface, and biological soil covers are critical to stabilization of desert soils. Disturbance to these can contribute to massive destabilization and mobilization of dust. This results in dust storms that are transported across inter-continental distances where they have profound negative impacts. Dust deposition at high altitudes causes radiative forcing of snowpack that leads directly to altered hydrological regimes and changes to freshwater biogeochemistry. In marine environments dust deposition impacts phytoplankton diazotrophy, and causes coral reef senescence. Increasingly dust is also recognized as a threat to human health.

  13. GIS Supported Landslide Susceptibility Modeling at Regional Scale: An Expert-Based Fuzzy Weighting Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Chalkias

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this paper is landslide susceptibility assessment using fuzzy expert-based modeling. Factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as elevation, slope, aspect, lithology, land cover, precipitation and seismicity were considered. Expert-based fuzzy weighting (EFW approach was used to combine these factors for landslide susceptibility mapping (Peloponnese, Greece. This method produced a landslide susceptibility map of the investigated area. The landslides under investigation have more or less same characteristics: lateral based and downslope shallow movement of soils or rocks. The validation of the model reveals, that predicted susceptibility levels are found to be in good agreement with the past landslide occurrences. Hence, the obtained landslide susceptibility map could be acceptable, for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation at regional scale.

  14. Integrating Expert Knowledge with Statistical Analysis for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment at Regional Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Chalkias

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an integration landslide susceptibility model by combining expert-based and bivariate statistical analysis (Landslide Susceptibility Index—LSI approaches is presented. Factors related with the occurrence of landslides—such as elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, land cover, Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA—were analyzed within a GIS environment. This integrated model produced a landslide susceptibility map which categorized the study area according to the probability level of landslide occurrence. The accuracy of the final map was evaluated by Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC analysis depending on an independent (validation dataset of landslide events. The prediction ability was found to be 76% revealing that the integration of statistical analysis with human expertise can provide an acceptable landslide susceptibility assessment at regional scale.

  15. Water and nutrient budgets at field and regional scale : travel times of drainage water and nutrient loads to surface water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eertwegh, van den G.A.P.H.

    2002-01-01

    Keywords : water and nutrient budget, travel time of drainage water, dual-porosity concept, agricultural nutrient losses, loads to surface water, field-scale experiments, regional-scale

  16. AQMEII3 evaluation of regional NA/EU simulations and analysis of scale, boundary conditions and emissions error-dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Through the comparison of several regional-scale chemistry transport modelling systems that simulate meteorology and air quality over the European and American continents, this study aims at i) apportioning the error to the responsible processes using time-scale analysis, ii) hel...

  17. From Fancy to Reason: Scaling Deaf and Hearing Children’s Understanding of Theory of Mind and Pretence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Candida C.; Wellman, Henry M.

    2011-01-01

    We examined deaf and hearing children’s progression of steps in theory-of-mind (ToM) development including their understanding of social pretending. Ninety-three children (33 deaf; 60 hearing) aged 3 to 13 years were tested on a set of six closely-matched ToM tasks. Results showed that deaf children were delayed substantially behind hearing children in understanding pretending, false belief and other ToM concepts, in line with their delayed uptake of social pretend play. By using a scaling methodology, we confirmed previous evidence of a consistent five-step developmental progression for both groups. Moreover, by including social pretence understanding, both deaf and hearing children’s ToM sequences were shown to extend reliably to six sequential developmental steps. Finally and focally, even though both groups’ sequences were six steps long, the placement of pretence relative to other ToM milestones varied with hearing status. Deaf children understood social pretending at an earlier step in the ToM sequence than hearing children, albeit at a later chronological age. Theoretically, the findings are relevant to questions about how universal developmental progressions come together along with culturally-distinctive inputs and biological factors (such as hearing loss) to set the pace for ToM development. PMID:19998533

  18. Theoretical simulation of small scale psychometric solar water desalination system in semi-arid region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shatat, Mahmoud; Omer, Siddig; Gillott, Mark; Riffat, Saffa

    2013-01-01

    Many countries around the world suffer from water scarcity. This is especially true in remote and semi-arid regions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) where per capita water supplies decline as populations increase. This paper presents the results of a theoretical simulation of an affordable small scale solar water desalination plant using the psychometric humidification and dehumidification process coupled with an evacuated tube solar collector with an area of about 2 m 2 . A mathematical model was developed to describe the system's operation. Then a computer program using Simulink Matlab software was developed to provide the governing equations for the theoretical calculations of the humidification and dehumidification processes. The experimental and theoretical values for the total daily distillate output were found to be closely correlated. After the experimental calibration of the mathematical model, a model simulating solar radiation under the climatic conditions in the Middle East region proved that the performance of the system could be improved to produce a considerably higher amount of fresh water, namely up to 17.5 kg/m 2 day. This work suggests that utilizing the concept of humidification and dehumidification, a compact water desalination unit coupled with solar collectors would significantly increase the potable water supply in remote area. It could be a unique solution of water shortages in such areas. -- Highlights: • An affordable small scale desalination system is proposed. • A mathematical model of the desalination system is developed and programmed using Matlab Simulink. • The model describes the psychometric process based on humidification and dehumidification. • The model is used in optimal selection of elements and operating conditions for solar desalination system. • The use of solar water desalination contributes significantly to reducing global warming

  19. Spatial and topographic trends in forest expansion and biomass change, from regional to local scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buma, Brian; Barrett, Tara M

    2015-09-01

    Natural forest growth and expansion are important carbon sequestration processes globally. Climate change is likely to increase forest growth in some regions via CO2 fertilization, increased temperatures, and altered precipitation; however, altered disturbance regimes and climate stress (e.g. drought) will act to reduce carbon stocks in forests as well. Observations of asynchrony in forest change is useful in determining current trends in forest carbon stocks, both in terms of forest density (e.g. Mg ha(-1) ) and spatially (extent and location). Monitoring change in natural (unmanaged) areas is particularly useful, as while afforestation and recovery from historic land use are currently large carbon sinks, the long-term viability of those sinks depends on climate change and disturbance dynamics at their particular location. We utilize a large, unmanaged biome (>135 000 km(2) ) which spans a broad latitudinal gradient to explore how variation in location affects forest density and spatial patterning: the forests of the North American temperate rainforests in Alaska, which store >2.8 Pg C in biomass and soil, equivalent to >8% of the C in contiguous US forests. We demonstrate that the regional biome is shifting; gains exceed losses and are located in different spatio-topographic contexts. Forest gains are concentrated on northerly aspects, lower elevations, and higher latitudes, especially in sheltered areas, whereas loss is skewed toward southerly aspects and lower latitudes. Repeat plot-scale biomass data (n = 759) indicate that within-forest biomass gains outpace losses (live trees >12.7 cm diameter, 986 Gg yr(-1) ) on gentler slopes and in higher latitudes. This work demonstrates that while temperate rainforest dynamics occur at fine spatial scales (biomass accumulation suggest the potential for relatively rapid biome shifts and biomass changes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Applying micro scales of horizontal axis wind turbines for operation in low wind speed regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pourrajabian, Abolfazl; Ebrahimi, Reza; Mirzaei, Masoud

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Three micro-turbines with output power less than 1 kW were designed for operation in low wind speed regions. • In addition to the output power, starting time was considered as a key parameter during the design. • The effects of generator resistive torque and number of blades on the performance of the turbines were investigated. - Abstract: Utilizing the micro scales of wind turbines could noticeably supply the demand for the electricity in low wind speed regions. Aerodynamic design and optimization of the blade, as a main part of a wind turbine, were addressed in the study. Three micro scales of horizontal axis wind turbines with output power of 0.5, 0.75 and 1 kW were considered and the geometric optimization of the blades in terms of the two involved parameters, chord and twist, was undertaken. In order to improve the performance of the turbines at low wind speeds, starting time was included in an objective function in addition to the output power – the main and desirable goal of the wind turbine blade design. A purpose-built genetic algorithm was employed to maximize both the output power and the starting performance which were calculated by the blade-element momentum theory. The results emphasize that the larger values of the chord and twist at the root part of the blades are indispensable for the better performance when the wind speed is low. However, the noticeable value of the generator resistive torque could largely delay the starting of the micro-turbines especially for the considered smaller size, 0.5 kW, where the starting aerodynamic torque could not overcome the generator resistive torque. For that size, an increase in the number of blades improved both the starting performance and also output power

  1. Cross tropopause flux observed at sub-daily scales over the south Indian monsoon regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemanth Kumar, A.; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Sunilkumar, S. V.; Parameswaran, K.; Krishna Murthy, B. V.

    2018-03-01

    The effect of deep convection on the thermal structure and dynamics of the tropical tropopause at sub daily scales is investigated using data from radiosondes launched over two sites in the Indian Monsoon region (Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) and Trivandrum (8.5°N, 76.9°E)) conducted between December 2010 and March 2014. The data from these soundings are classified into 5 convective categories based on the past, present and future cloudiness over the launching region after the radiosonde has reached tropopause altitude. They are denoted as category 1 (no convection), category 2 (convection may occur in any of the next 3 h), category 3 (convection occurred prior 3 h), category 4 (convection terminated within 3 h of launching) and category 5 (convection persistent throughout the considered period). The anomalies from the background in temperature, relative humidity and wind speed are grouped into the aforementioned five different convective categories for both the stations. Cooling and moisture anomalies are found during the active convection (category 5). The horizontal wind speed showed a strong anomaly indicating the presence of synoptic scale features. Vertical wind obtained simultaneously from the MST radar over Gadanki clearly showed strong updraft during the active convection. The ozone profiles from ozonesondes launched during the same period are also segregated according to the above convective categories. During the active convection, high and low ozone values are found in the upper troposphere and the lower troposphere, respectively. The cross tropopause ozone mass flux and vertical wind at the tropopause and convective outflow level estimated from the ozonesonde, and MST radar/ERA-Interim data showed positive values indicating the transport of ozone between troposphere and stratosphere during deep convection. Similarly, the total mass flux crossing the cold point tropopause over Gadanki showed upward flux during the active convection. The variability of

  2. Evaluating uncertainties in regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solman, Silvina A. [Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera CIMA/CONICET-UBA, DCAO/FCEN, UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, CIMA-Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Pessacg, Natalia L. [Centro Nacional Patagonico (CONICET), Puerto Madryn, Chubut (Argentina)

    2012-07-15

    This work focuses on the evaluation of different sources of uncertainty affecting regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale, using the MM5 model. The simulations cover a 3-month period for the austral spring season. Several four-member ensembles were performed in order to quantify the uncertainty due to: the internal variability; the definition of the regional model domain; the choice of physical parameterizations and the selection of physical parameters within a particular cumulus scheme. The uncertainty was measured by means of the spread among individual members of each ensemble during the integration period. Results show that the internal variability, triggered by differences in the initial conditions, represents the lowest level of uncertainty for every variable analyzed. The geographic distribution of the spread among ensemble members depends on the variable: for precipitation and temperature the largest spread is found over tropical South America while for the mean sea level pressure the largest spread is located over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean, where large synoptic-scale activity occurs. Using nudging techniques to ingest the boundary conditions reduces dramatically the internal variability. The uncertainty due to the domain choice displays a similar spatial pattern compared with the internal variability, except for the mean sea level pressure field, though its magnitude is larger all over the model domain for every variable. The largest spread among ensemble members is found for the ensemble in which different combinations of physical parameterizations are selected. The perturbed physics ensemble produces a level of uncertainty slightly larger than the internal variability. This study suggests that no matter what the source of uncertainty is, the geographical distribution of the spread among members of the ensembles is invariant, particularly for precipitation and temperature. (orig.)

  3. Understanding Short-Term Nonmigrating Tidal Variability in the Ionospheric Dynamo Region from SABER Using Information Theory and Bayesian Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, K.; Oberheide, J.

    2017-12-01

    Nonmigrating tidal diagnostics of SABER temperature observations in the ionospheric dynamo region reveal a large amount of variability on time-scales of a few days to weeks. In this paper, we discuss the physical reasons for the observed short-term tidal variability using a novel approach based on Information theory and Bayesian statistics. We diagnose short-term tidal variability as a function of season, QBO, ENSO, and solar cycle and other drivers using time dependent probability density functions, Shannon entropy and Kullback-Leibler divergence. The statistical significance of the approach and its predictive capability is exemplified using SABER tidal diagnostics with emphasis on the responses to the QBO and solar cycle. Implications for F-region plasma density will be discussed.

  4. When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Bergerot

    Full Text Available Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known.And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales.In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

  5. When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergerot, Benjamin; Hugueny, Bernard; Belliard, Jérôme

    2013-01-01

    Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known. And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales. In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

  6. Region-scale groundwater flow modelling of generic high level waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metcalfe, D.

    1996-02-01

    Regional-scale groundwater flow modelling analyses are performed on generic high level waste (HLW) disposal sites to assess the extent to which a large crystalline rock mass such as a pluton or batholith can be expected to contain and isolate HLW in terms of hydraulic considerations, for a variety of geologic and hydrogeologic conditions. The two-dimensional cross-sectional conceptual models of generic HLW disposal sites are evaluated using SWIFT III, which is a finite-difference flow and transport code. All steps leading to the final results and conclusions are incorporated in this report. The available data and information on geological and hydrogeologic conditions in plutons and batholiths are summarized. The generic conceptual models developed from this information are defined in terms of the finite difference grid, the geologic and hydrogeologic properties and the hydrologic boundary conditions used. The modelled results are described with contour maps showing the modelled head fields, groundwater flow paths and travel times and groundwater flux rates within the modelled systems. The results of the modelling analyses are used to develop general conclusions on the scales and patterns of groundwater flow in granitic plutons and batholiths. The conclusions focus on geologic and hydrogeologic characteristics that can result in favourable conditions, in terms of hydraulic considerations, for a HLW repository. (author) 43 refs., 9 tabs., 40 figs

  7. Regional-Scale Drivers of Forest Structure and Function in Northwestern Amazonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Mark A.; Asner, Gregory P.; Anderson, Christopher B.; Martin, Roberta E.; Knapp, David E.; Tupayachi, Raul; Perez, Eneas; Elespuru, Nydia; Alonso, Alfonso

    2015-01-01

    Field studies in Amazonia have found a relationship at continental scales between soil fertility and broad trends in forest structure and function. Little is known at regional scales, however, about how discrete patterns in forest structure or functional attributes map onto underlying edaphic or geological patterns. We collected airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data and VSWIR (Visible to Shortwave Infrared) imaging spectroscopy measurements over 600 km2 of northwestern Amazonian lowland forests. We also established 83 inventories of plant species composition and soil properties, distributed between two widespread geological formations. Using these data, we mapped forest structure and canopy reflectance, and compared them to patterns in plant species composition, soils, and underlying geology. We found that variations in soils and species composition explained up to 70% of variation in canopy height, and corresponded to profound changes in forest vertical profiles. We further found that soils and plant species composition explained more than 90% of the variation in canopy reflectance as measured by imaging spectroscopy, indicating edaphic and compositional control of canopy chemical properties. We last found that soils explained between 30% and 70% of the variation in gap frequency in these forests, depending on the height threshold used to define gaps. Our findings indicate that a relatively small number of edaphic and compositional variables, corresponding to underlying geology, may be responsible for variations in canopy structure and chemistry over large expanses of Amazonian forest. PMID:25793602

  8. Regional-scale drivers of forest structure and function in northwestern Amazonia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Higgins

    Full Text Available Field studies in Amazonia have found a relationship at continental scales between soil fertility and broad trends in forest structure and function. Little is known at regional scales, however, about how discrete patterns in forest structure or functional attributes map onto underlying edaphic or geological patterns. We collected airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging data and VSWIR (Visible to Shortwave Infrared imaging spectroscopy measurements over 600 km2 of northwestern Amazonian lowland forests. We also established 83 inventories of plant species composition and soil properties, distributed between two widespread geological formations. Using these data, we mapped forest structure and canopy reflectance, and compared them to patterns in plant species composition, soils, and underlying geology. We found that variations in soils and species composition explained up to 70% of variation in canopy height, and corresponded to profound changes in forest vertical profiles. We further found that soils and plant species composition explained more than 90% of the variation in canopy reflectance as measured by imaging spectroscopy, indicating edaphic and compositional control of canopy chemical properties. We last found that soils explained between 30% and 70% of the variation in gap frequency in these forests, depending on the height threshold used to define gaps. Our findings indicate that a relatively small number of edaphic and compositional variables, corresponding to underlying geology, may be responsible for variations in canopy structure and chemistry over large expanses of Amazonian forest.

  9. Multi-scale associations between vegetation cover and woodland bird communities across a large agricultural region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Ikin

    Full Text Available Improving biodiversity conservation in fragmented agricultural landscapes has become an important global issue. Vegetation at the patch and landscape-scale is important for species occupancy and diversity, yet few previous studies have explored multi-scale associations between vegetation and community assemblages. Here, we investigated how patch and landscape-scale vegetation cover structure woodland bird communities. We asked: (1 How is the bird community associated with the vegetation structure of woodland patches and the amount of vegetation cover in the surrounding landscape? (2 Do species of conservation concern respond to woodland vegetation structure and surrounding vegetation cover differently to other species in the community? And (3 Can the relationships between the bird community and the woodland vegetation structure and surrounding vegetation cover be explained by the ecological traits of the species comprising the bird community? We studied 103 woodland patches (0.5 - 53.8 ha over two time periods across a large (6,800 km(2 agricultural region in southeastern Australia. We found that both patch vegetation and surrounding woody vegetation cover were important for structuring the bird community, and that these relationships were consistent over time. In particular, the occurrence of mistletoe within the patches and high values of woody vegetation cover within 1,000 ha and 10,000 ha were important, especially for bird species of conservation concern. We found that the majority of these species displayed similar, positive responses to patch and landscape vegetation attributes. We also found that these relationships were related to the foraging and nesting traits of the bird community. Our findings suggest that management strategies to increase both remnant vegetation quality and the cover of surrounding woody vegetation in fragmented agricultural landscapes may lead to improved conservation of bird communities.

  10. Co-creating Understanding in Water Use & Agricultural Resilience in a Multi-scale Natural-human System: Sacramento River Valley--California's Water Heartland in Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbanks, D. H.; Brimlowe, J.; Chaudry, A.; Gray, K.; Greene, T.; Guzley, R.; Hatfield, C.; Houk, E.; Le Page, C.

    2012-12-01

    The Sacramento River Valley (SRV), valued for its $2.5 billion agricultural production and its biodiversity, is the main supplier of California's water, servicing 25 million people. . Despite rapid changes to the region, little is known about the collective motivations and consequences of land and water use decisions, or the social and environmental vulnerability and resilience of the SRV. The overarching research goal is to examine whether the SRV can continue to supply clean water for California and accommodate agricultural production and biodiversity while coping with climate change and population growth. Without understanding these issues, the resources of the SRV face an uncertain future. The defining goal is to construct a framework that integrates cross-disciplinary and diverse stakeholder perspectives in order to develop a comprehensive understanding of how SRV stakeholders make land and water use decisions. Traditional approaches for modeling have failed to take into consideration multi-scale stakeholder input. Currently there is no effective method to facilitate producers and government agencies in developing a shared representation to address the issues that face the region. To address this gap, researchers and stakeholders are working together to collect and consolidate disconnected knowledge held by stakeholder groups (agencies, irrigation districts, and producers) into a holistic conceptual model of how stakeholders view and make decisions with land and water use under various management systems. Our approach integrates a top-down approach (agency stakeholders) for larger scale management decisions with a conceptual co-creation and data gathering bottom-up approach with local agricultural producer stakeholders for input water and landuse decisions. Land use change models that combine a top-down approach with a bottom-up stakeholder approach are rare and yet essential to understanding how the social process of land use change and ecosystem function are

  11. A study on the regionalization of tornadogenesis for the domestic largest scale of tornado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugimoto, Soichiro; Nohara, Daisuke; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

    2014-01-01

    A new regulatory guide has been issued by the Nuclear Regulation Authority of Japan since the last year. According to this guide, electric power companies have to assess the influence of tornadoes on their nuclear power plants for operation. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the likelihood of the occurrence of F3 tornadoes, which are the largest encountered in Japan, and to consider the possibility of the regionalization of the maximum wind speed. Then, mesoscale analysis with a numerical meteorological model and re-analysis data is performed along with synoptic scale analysis. Especially, tornado parameters such as SReH (Storm Relative Helicity) and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) are used for evaluating the potential tornadogenesis of F3 tornado. Both analyses indicate that favorable meteorological condition tends to occur in the coastal zones in the Pacific side west of Ibaraki and around Kyushu island. The frequency in these zones is different from the one in the other area in the order of 1 or 2, which is large enough for regionalization. (author)

  12. Decentralized electrification by small-scale hydraulic stations : a viable solution in mountainous regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahman Saidi, A.

    1998-01-01

    The installation of a small-scale hydroelectric generating station to supply electricity to the small community of Takordmi in Morocco was described. The community of Takordmi consists of 32 households located in the remote mountainous region of Morocco. Takordmi was without electrical power until 1992 when a small 15 kW Pelton turbine was installed to supply electricity to the residents. Water to power the turbine generator was supplied by a small stream with an output of 4 to 8 liters per second and a head of 535 meters. Since the unit was installed, the mean monthly consumption of the community has been only 115 kWh, which averages to 4 kWh per household. The success of the Takordmi project has prompted the electrification of several other small communities in the remote regions of Morocco either by similar micro-hydroelectric stations or by photovoltaic cells. This project, funded by the Republic of Austria, demonstrates that it is feasible to provide electricity to remote rural communities by using local sources of power. 3 figs

  13. Reducing Agricultural Water Footprints at the Farm Scale: A Case Study in the Beijing Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Huang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Beijing is one of the most water-stressed regions in the world. Reducing agricultural water use has long been the basis of local policy for sustainable water use. In this article, the potential to reduce the life cycle (cradle to gate water footprints of wheat and maize that contribute to 94% of the local cereal production was assessed. Following ISO 14046, consumptive and degradative water use for the wheat-maize rotation system was modeled under different irrigation and nitrogen (N application options. Reducing irrigation water volume by 33.3% compared to current practice did not cause a significant yield decline, but the water scarcity footprint and water eutrophication footprint were decreased by 27.5% and 23.9%, respectively. Similarly, reducing the N application rate by 33.3% from current practice did not cause a significant yield decline, but led to a 52.3% reduction in water eutrophication footprint while maintaining a similar water scarcity footprint. These results demonstrate that improving water and fertilizer management has great potential for reducing the crop water footprints at the farm scale. This situation in Beijing is likely to be representative of the challenge facing many of the water-stressed regions in China, where a sustainable means of agricultural production must be found.

  14. On the link between column density distribution and density scaling relation in star formation regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veltchev, Todor; Donkov, Sava; Stanchev, Orlin

    2017-07-01

    We present a method to derive the density scaling relation ∝ L^{-α} in regions of star formation or in their turbulent vicinities from straightforward binning of the column-density distribution (N-pdf). The outcome of the method is studied for three types of N-pdf: power law (7/5≤α≤5/3), lognormal (0.7≲α≲1.4) and combination of lognormals. In the last case, the method of Stanchev et al. (2015) was also applied for comparison and a very weak (or close to zero) correlation was found. We conclude that the considered `binning approach' reflects rather the local morphology of the N-pdf with no reference to the physical conditions in a considered region. The rough consistency of the derived slopes with the widely adopted Larson's (1981) value α˜1.1 is suggested to support claims that the density-size relation in molecular clouds is indeed an artifact of the observed N-pdf.

  15. Assessment of applications of transport models on regional scale solute transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Z.; Fogg, G. E.; Henri, C.; Pauloo, R.

    2017-12-01

    Regional scale transport models are needed to support the long-term evaluation of groundwater quality and to develop management strategies aiming to prevent serious groundwater degradation. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the capacity of previously-developed upscaling approaches to accurately describe main solute transport processes including the capture of late-time tails under changing boundary conditions. Advective-dispersive contaminant transport in a 3D heterogeneous domain was simulated and used as a reference solution. Equivalent transport under homogeneous flow conditions were then evaluated applying the Multi-Rate Mass Transfer (MRMT) model. The random walk particle tracking method was used for both heterogeneous and homogeneous-MRMT scenarios under steady state and transient conditions. The results indicate that the MRMT model can capture the tails satisfactorily for plume transported with ambient steady-state flow field. However, when boundary conditions change, the mass transfer model calibrated for transport under steady-state conditions cannot accurately reproduce the tailing effect observed for the heterogeneous scenario. The deteriorating impact of transient boundary conditions on the upscaled model is more significant for regions where flow fields are dramatically affected, highlighting the poor applicability of the MRMT approach for complex field settings. Accurately simulating mass in both mobile and immobile zones is critical to represent the transport process under transient flow conditions and will be the future focus of our study.

  16. Assessing regional and interspecific variation in threshold responses of forest breeding birds through broad scale analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yntze van der Hoek

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Identifying persistence and extinction thresholds in species-habitat relationships is a major focal point of ecological research and conservation. However, one major concern regarding the incorporation of threshold analyses in conservation is the lack of knowledge on the generality and transferability of results across species and regions. We present a multi-region, multi-species approach of modeling threshold responses, which we use to investigate whether threshold effects are similar across species and regions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We modeled local persistence and extinction dynamics of 25 forest-associated breeding birds based on detection/non-detection data, which were derived from repeated breeding bird atlases for the state of Vermont. We did not find threshold responses to be particularly well-supported, with 9 species supporting extinction thresholds and 5 supporting persistence thresholds. This contrasts with a previous study based on breeding bird atlas data from adjacent New York State, which showed that most species support persistence and extinction threshold models (15 and 22 of 25 study species respectively. In addition, species that supported a threshold model in both states had associated average threshold estimates of 61.41% (SE = 6.11, persistence and 66.45% (SE = 9.15, extinction in New York, compared to 51.08% (SE = 10.60, persistence and 73.67% (SE = 5.70, extinction in Vermont. Across species, thresholds were found at 19.45-87.96% forest cover for persistence and 50.82-91.02% for extinction dynamics. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Through an approach that allows for broad-scale comparisons of threshold responses, we show that species vary in their threshold responses with regard to habitat amount, and that differences between even nearby regions can be pronounced. We present both ecological and methodological factors that may contribute to the different model results, but propose that

  17. Assessing regional and interspecific variation in threshold responses of forest breeding birds through broad scale analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Hoek, Yntze; Renfrew, Rosalind; Manne, Lisa L

    2013-01-01

    Identifying persistence and extinction thresholds in species-habitat relationships is a major focal point of ecological research and conservation. However, one major concern regarding the incorporation of threshold analyses in conservation is the lack of knowledge on the generality and transferability of results across species and regions. We present a multi-region, multi-species approach of modeling threshold responses, which we use to investigate whether threshold effects are similar across species and regions. We modeled local persistence and extinction dynamics of 25 forest-associated breeding birds based on detection/non-detection data, which were derived from repeated breeding bird atlases for the state of Vermont. We did not find threshold responses to be particularly well-supported, with 9 species supporting extinction thresholds and 5 supporting persistence thresholds. This contrasts with a previous study based on breeding bird atlas data from adjacent New York State, which showed that most species support persistence and extinction threshold models (15 and 22 of 25 study species respectively). In addition, species that supported a threshold model in both states had associated average threshold estimates of 61.41% (SE = 6.11, persistence) and 66.45% (SE = 9.15, extinction) in New York, compared to 51.08% (SE = 10.60, persistence) and 73.67% (SE = 5.70, extinction) in Vermont. Across species, thresholds were found at 19.45-87.96% forest cover for persistence and 50.82-91.02% for extinction dynamics. Through an approach that allows for broad-scale comparisons of threshold responses, we show that species vary in their threshold responses with regard to habitat amount, and that differences between even nearby regions can be pronounced. We present both ecological and methodological factors that may contribute to the different model results, but propose that regardless of the reasons behind these differences, our results merit a warning that

  18. Using gridded multimedia model to simulate spatial fate of Benzo[α]pyrene on regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shijie; Lu, Yonglong; Wang, Tieyu; Xie, Shuangwei; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

    2014-02-01

    Predicting the environmental multimedia fate is an essential step in the process of assessing the human exposure and health impacts of chemicals released into the environment. Multimedia fate models have been widely applied to calculate the fate and distribution of chemicals in the environment, which can serve as input to a human exposure model. In this study, a grid based multimedia fugacity model at regional scale was developed together with a case study modeling the fate and transfer of Benzo[α]pyrene (BaP) in Bohai coastal region, China. Based on the estimated emission and in-site survey in 2008, the BaP concentrations in air, vegetation, soil, fresh water, fresh water sediment and coastal water as well as the transfer fluxes were derived under the steady-state assumption. The model results were validated through comparison between the measured and modeled concentrations of BaP. The model results indicated that the predicted concentrations of BaP in air, fresh water, soil and sediment generally agreed with field observations. Model predictions suggest that soil was the dominant sink of BaP in terrestrial systems. Flow from air to soil, vegetation and costal water were three major pathways of BaP inter-media transport processes. Most of the BaP entering the sea was transferred by air flow, which was also the crucial driving force in the spatial distribution processes of BaP. The Yellow River, Liaohe River and Daliao River played an important role in the spatial transformation processes of BaP. Compared with advection outflow, degradation was more important in removal processes of BaP. Sensitivities of the model estimates to input parameters were tested. The result showed that emission rates, compartment dimensions, transport velocity and degradation rates of BaP were the most influential parameters for the model output. Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to determine parameter uncertainty, from which the coefficients of variation for the estimated Ba

  19. Pedestrian detection in thermal images: An automated scale based region extraction with curvelet space validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakshmi, A.; Faheema, A. G. J.; Deodhare, Dipti

    2016-05-01

    Pedestrian detection is a key problem in night vision processing with a dozen of applications that will positively impact the performance of autonomous systems. Despite significant progress, our study shows that performance of state-of-the-art thermal image pedestrian detectors still has much room for improvement. The purpose of this paper is to overcome the challenge faced by the thermal image pedestrian detectors, which employ intensity based Region Of Interest (ROI) extraction followed by feature based validation. The most striking disadvantage faced by the first module, ROI extraction, is the failed detection of cloth insulted parts. To overcome this setback, this paper employs an algorithm and a principle of region growing pursuit tuned to the scale of the pedestrian. The statistics subtended by the pedestrian drastically vary with the scale and deviation from normality approach facilitates scale detection. Further, the paper offers an adaptive mathematical threshold to resolve the problem of subtracting the background while extracting cloth insulated parts as well. The inherent false positives of the ROI extraction module are limited by the choice of good features in pedestrian validation step. One such feature is curvelet feature, which has found its use extensively in optical images, but has as yet no reported results in thermal images. This has been used to arrive at a pedestrian detector with a reduced false positive rate. This work is the first venture made to scrutinize the utility of curvelet for characterizing pedestrians in thermal images. Attempt has also been made to improve the speed of curvelet transform computation. The classification task is realized through the use of the well known methodology of Support Vector Machines (SVMs). The proposed method is substantiated with qualified evaluation methodologies that permits us to carry out probing and informative comparisons across state-of-the-art features, including deep learning methods, with six

  20. Genome-scale prediction of proteins with long intrinsically disordered regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Zhenling; Mizianty, Marcin J; Kurgan, Lukasz

    2014-01-01

    Proteins with long disordered regions (LDRs), defined as having 30 or more consecutive disordered residues, are abundant in eukaryotes, and these regions are recognized as a distinct class of biologically functional domains. LDRs facilitate various cellular functions and are important for target selection in structural genomics. Motivated by the lack of methods that directly predict proteins with LDRs, we designed Super-fast predictor of proteins with Long Intrinsically DisordERed regions (SLIDER). SLIDER utilizes logistic regression that takes an empirically chosen set of numerical features, which consider selected physicochemical properties of amino acids, sequence complexity, and amino acid composition, as its inputs. Empirical tests show that SLIDER offers competitive predictive performance combined with low computational cost. It outperforms, by at least a modest margin, a comprehensive set of modern disorder predictors (that can indirectly predict LDRs) and is 16 times faster compared to the best currently available disorder predictor. Utilizing our time-efficient predictor, we characterized abundance and functional roles of proteins with LDRs over 110 eukaryotic proteomes. Similar to related studies, we found that eukaryotes have many (on average 30.3%) proteins with LDRs with majority of proteomes having between 25 and 40%, where higher abundance is characteristic to proteomes that have larger proteins. Our first-of-its-kind large-scale functional analysis shows that these proteins are enriched in a number of cellular functions and processes including certain binding events, regulation of catalytic activities, cellular component organization, biogenesis, biological regulation, and some metabolic and developmental processes. A webserver that implements SLIDER is available at http://biomine.ece.ualberta.ca/SLIDER/. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Nuclear analytical techniques applied to the large scale measurements of atmospheric aerosols in the amazon region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerab, Fabio

    1996-03-01

    This work presents the characterization of the atmosphere aerosol collected in different places of the Amazon Basin. We studied both the biogenic emission from the forest and the particulate material which is emitted to the atmosphere due to the large scale man-made burning during the dry season. The samples were collected during a three year period at two different locations in the Amazon, namely the Alta Floresta (MT) and Serra do Navio (AP) regions, using stacked unit filters. These regions represent two different atmospheric compositions: the aerosol is dominated by the forest natural biogenic emission at Serra do Navio, while at Alta Floresta it presents an important contribution from the man-made burning during the dry season. At Alta Floresta we took samples in gold in order to characterize mercury emission to the atmosphere related to the gold prospection activity in Amazon. Airplanes were used for aerosol sampling during the 1992 and 1993 dry seasons to characterize the atmospheric aerosol contents from man-made burning in large Amazonian areas. The samples were analyzed using several nuclear analytic techniques: Particle Induced X-ray Emission for the quantitative analysis of trace elements with atomic number above 11; Particle Induced Gamma-ray Emission for the quantitative analysis of Na; and Proton Microprobe was used for the characterization of individual particles of the aerosol. Reflectancy technique was used in the black carbon quantification, gravimetric analysis to determine the total atmospheric aerosol concentration and Cold Vapor Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy for quantitative analysis of mercury in the particulate from the Alta Floresta gold shops. Ionic chromatography was used to quantify ionic contents of aerosols from the fine mode particulate samples from Serra do Navio. Multivariate statistical analysis was used in order to identify and characterize the sources of the atmospheric aerosol present in the sampled regions. (author)

  2. Development of a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model to assess population exposure at a regional scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caudeville, Julien, E-mail: Julien.CAUDEVILLE@ineris.fr [INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Joint research unit UMR 6599, Heudiasyc (Heuristic and Diagnoses of Complex Systems), University of Technology of Compiegne and CNRS, Rue du Dr Schweitzer, 60200 Compiegne (France); Bonnard, Roseline, E-mail: Roseline.BONNARD@ineris.fr [INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Boudet, Celine, E-mail: Celine.BOUDET@ineris.fr [INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Denys, Sebastien, E-mail: Sebastien.DENYS@ineris.fr [INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Govaert, Gerard, E-mail: gerard.govaert@utc.fr [Joint research unit UMR 6599, Heudiasyc (Heuristic and Diagnoses of Complex Systems), University of Technology of Compiegne and CNRS, Rue du Dr Schweitzer, 60200 Compiegne (France); Cicolella, Andre, E-mail: Andre.CICOLELLA@ineris.fr [INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France)

    2012-08-15

    Analyzing the relationship between the environment and health has become a major focus of public health efforts in France, as evidenced by the national action plans for health and the environment. These plans have identified the following two priorities: -identify and manage geographic areas where hotspot exposures are a potential risk to human health; and -reduce exposure inequalities. The aim of this study is to develop a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model for detecting vulnerable populations and analyzing exposure determinants at a fine resolution and regional scale. A multimedia exposure model was developed by INERIS to assess the transfer of substances from the environment to humans through inhalation and ingestion pathways. The RESPIR project adds a spatial dimension by linking GIS (Geographic Information System) to the model. Tools are developed using modeling, spatial analysis and geostatistic methods to build and discretize interesting variables and indicators from different supports and resolutions on a 1-km{sup 2} regular grid. We applied this model to the risk assessment of exposure to metals (cadmium, lead and nickel) using data from a region in France (Nord-Pas-de-Calais). The considered exposure pathways include the atmospheric contaminant inhalation and ingestion of soil, vegetation, meat, egg, milk, fish and drinking water. Exposure scenarios are defined for different reference groups (age, dietary properties, and the fraction of food produced locally). The two largest risks correspond to an ancient industrial site (Metaleurop) and the Lille agglomeration. In these areas, cadmium, vegetation ingestion and soil contamination are the principal determinants of the computed risk. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a multimedia exposure model for mapping environmental disparities. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We perform a risk assessment on a region of France at a fine scale for three metals. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We

  3. Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

    2013-12-01

    Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for

  4. A methodology for the assessment of flood hazards at the regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Semenzin, Elena; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, the frequency of water-related disasters has increased and recent flood events in Europe (e.g. 2002 in Central Europe, 2007 in UK, 2010 in Italy) caused physical-environmental and socio-economic damages. Specifically, floods are the most threatening water-related disaster that affects humans, their lives and properties. Within the KULTURisk project (FP7) a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology is proposed to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The method is based on the KULTURisk framework and allows the identification and prioritization of targets (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritages) and areas at risk from floods in the considered region by comparing the baseline scenario (i.e. current state) with alternative scenarios (i.e. where different structural and/or non-structural measures are planned). The RRA methodology is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The final aim of RRA is to help decision-makers in examining the possible environmental risks associated with uncertain future flood hazards and in identifying which prevention scenario could be the most suitable one. The RRA methodology employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA functions) in order to integrate stakeholder preferences and experts judgments into the analysis. Moreover, Geographic Information Systems (GISs) are used to manage, process, analyze, and map data to facilitate the analysis and the information sharing with different experts and stakeholders. In order to characterize flood risks, the proposed methodology integrates the output of hydrodynamic models with the analysis of site-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope of the territory, land cover

  5. Application of Satellite Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence to Understanding Large-Scale Variations in Vegetation Phenology and Function Over Northern High Latitude Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Su-Jong; Schimel, David; Frankenberg, Christian; Drewry, Darren T.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Verma, Manish; Berry, Joseph A.; Lee, Jung-Eun; Joiner, Joanna

    2016-01-01

    This study evaluates the large-scale seasonal phenology and physiology of vegetation over northern high latitude forests (40 deg - 55 deg N) during spring and fall by using remote sensing of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and observation-based estimate of gross primary productivity (GPP) from 2009 to 2011. Based on GPP phenology estimation in GPP, the growing season determined by SIF time-series is shorter in length than the growing season length determined solely using NDVI. This is mainly due to the extended period of high NDVI values, as compared to SIF, by about 46 days (+/-11 days), indicating a large-scale seasonal decoupling of physiological activity and changes in greenness in the fall. In addition to phenological timing, mean seasonal NDVI and SIF have different responses to temperature changes throughout the growing season. We observed that both NDVI and SIF linearly increased with temperature increases throughout the spring. However, in the fall, although NDVI linearly responded to temperature increases, SIF and GPP did not linearly increase with temperature increases, implying a seasonal hysteresis of SIF and GPP in response to temperature changes across boreal ecosystems throughout their growing season. Seasonal hysteresis of vegetation at large-scales is consistent with the known phenomena that light limits boreal forest ecosystem productivity in the fall. Our results suggest that continuing measurements from satellite remote sensing of both SIF and NDVI can help to understand the differences between, and information carried by, seasonal variations vegetation structure and greenness and physiology at large-scales across the critical boreal regions.

  6. On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

    OpenAIRE

    D. C. Verdon-Kidd; A. S. Kiem

    2009-01-01

    In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a cl...

  7. Regional-scale geostatistical inverse modeling of North American CO2 fluxes: a synthetic data study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Michalak

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available A series of synthetic data experiments is performed to investigate the ability of a regional atmospheric inversion to estimate grid-scale CO2 fluxes during the growing season over North America. The inversions are performed within a geostatistical framework without the use of any prior flux estimates or auxiliary variables, in order to focus on the atmospheric constraint provided by the nine towers collecting continuous, calibrated CO2 measurements in 2004. Using synthetic measurements and their associated concentration footprints, flux and model-data mismatch covariance parameters are first optimized, and then fluxes and their uncertainties are estimated at three different temporal resolutions. These temporal resolutions, which include a four-day average, a four-day-average diurnal cycle with 3-hourly increments, and 3-hourly fluxes, are chosen to help assess the impact of temporal aggregation errors on the estimated fluxes and covariance parameters. Estimating fluxes at a temporal resolution that can adjust the diurnal variability is found to be critical both for recovering covariance parameters directly from the atmospheric data, and for inferring accurate ecoregion-scale fluxes. Accounting for both spatial and temporal a priori covariance in the flux distribution is also found to be necessary for recovering accurate a posteriori uncertainty bounds on the estimated fluxes. Overall, the results suggest that even a fairly sparse network of 9 towers collecting continuous CO2 measurements across the continent, used with no auxiliary information or prior estimates of the flux distribution in time or space, can be used to infer relatively accurate monthly ecoregion scale CO2 surface fluxes over North America within estimated uncertainty bounds. Simulated random transport error is shown to decrease the quality of flux estimates in under-constrained areas at the ecoregion scale, although the uncertainty bounds remain realistic. While these synthetic

  8. Understanding the partial protection of male circumcision for HIV prevention among women in Iringa Region, Tanzania: an ethnomedical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layer, Erica H; Beckham, Sarah W; Momburi, Romani B; Kennedy, Caitlin E

    2013-08-01

    Communicating the partial efficacy of male circumcision for HIV prevention is challenging. Understanding how people conceptualize risk can help programs communicate messages in a way that is understandable to local communities. This article explores women's ethnomedical model of disease transmission related to male circumcision in Iringa Region, Tanzania. We conducted in-depth interviews (IDIs) with 32 female partners of male circumcision clients and focus group discussions (FGDs) with married (n=3) and unmarried (n=3) women from November 2011 to February 2012. Interviews were digitally recorded, transcribed, and translated into English, and codes were developed based on emerging themes. While women understand that circumcised men are still at risk of HIV, risk is perceived to be low as long as both partners avoid abrasions during sexual intercourse and the man's penis is kept clean. Women said that HIV transmission only occurs when both partners have abrasions on their genitalia and mixing of blood occurs. Abrasions are thought to be the result of friction from fast or dry sex and are more likely to occur with uncircumcised men; thus, HIV can be prevented if a man is circumcised and couples have gentle, lubricated sex. In addition, women reported that the foreskin traps particles of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) including HIV, which can easily be passed on to female partners. In contrast, circumcised men are viewed as being able to clean themselves of disease particles and, therefore, do not easily acquire diseases or transmit them to female partners. These findings align with the scientific understanding of increased HIV risk associated with abrasions or microflora in the foreskin; however, the ethnomedical model differs from scientific understanding in that disease transmission can in fact occur without either of these conditions. Programs can build upon these findings to better convey risks along with the benefits of male circumcision.

  9. Susceptibility and triggering scenarios at a regional scale for shallow landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gullà, G.; Antronico, L.; Iaquinta, P.; Terranova, O.

    2008-07-01

    The work aims at identifying susceptible areas and pluviometric triggering scenarios at a regional scale in Calabria (Italy), with reference to shallow landsliding events. The proposed methodology follows a statistical approach and uses a database linked to a GIS that has been created to support the various steps of spatial data management and manipulation. The shallow landslide predisposing factors taken into account are derived from (i) the 40-m digital terrain model of the region, an ˜ 15,075 km 2 extension; (ii) outcropping lithology; (iii) soils; and (iv) land use. More precisely, a map of the slopes has been drawn from the digital terrain model. Two kinds of covers [prevalently coarse-grained (CG cover) or fine-grained (FG cover)] were identified, referring to the geotechnical characteristics of geomaterial covers and to the lithology map; soilscapes were drawn from soil maps; and finally, the land use map was employed without any prior processing. Subsequently, the inventory maps of some shallow landsliding events, totaling more than 30,000 instabilities of the past and detected by field surveys and photo aerial restitution, were employed to calibrate the relative importance of these predisposing factors. The use of single factors (first level analysis) therefore provides three different susceptibility maps. Second level analysis, however, enables better location of areas susceptible to shallow landsliding events by crossing the single susceptibility maps. On the basis of the susceptibility map obtained by the second level analysis, five different classes of susceptibility to shallow landsliding events have been outlined over the regional territory: 8.9% of the regional territory shows very high susceptibility, 14.3% high susceptibility, 15% moderate susceptibility, 3.6% low susceptibility, and finally, about 58% very low susceptibility. Finally, the maps of two significant shallow landsliding events of the past and their related rainfalls have been

  10. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This

  11. Adaptation by Stealth: Understanding climate information use across scales and decision spaces in water management in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchhoff, C.; Vang Rasmussen, L.; Lemos, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    While there has been considerable focus on understanding how factors related to the creation of climate knowledge affect its uptake and use, less attention has been paid to the actors, decisions, and processes through which climate information supports, or fails to support, action. This is particularly the case concerning how different scales of decision-making influence information uptake. In this study, we seek to understand how water and resource managers' decision space influences climate information use in two Great Lakes watersheds. We find that despite the availability of tailored climate information, actual use of information in decision making remains low. Reasons include: a) lack of willingness to place climate on agendas because local managers perceive climate change as politically risky and a difficult and intangible problem; b) lack of formal mandate or authority at the city and county scale to translate climate information into on-the-ground action, c) problems with the information itself, and d) perceived lack of demand for climate information by those managers who have the mandate and authority (e.g. at the state level) to use (or help others use) climate information. Our findings suggest that 1) climate scientists and information brokers should produce information that meets a range of decision needs and reserve intensive tailoring efforts for decision makers who have authority and willingness to employ climate information, 2) without support from higher levels of decision-making (e.g. state) it is unlikely that climate information use for adaptation decisions will accelerate significantly in the next few years, and 3) the trend towards adopting more sustainability and resilience practices over climate-specific actions should be supported as an important component of the climate adaptation repertoire.

  12. Revisiting the contemporary sea-level budget on global and regional scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rietbroek, Roelof; Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Kusche, Jürgen; Schröter, Jens; Dahle, Christoph

    2016-02-09

    Dividing the sea-level budget into contributions from ice sheets and glaciers, the water cycle, steric expansion, and crustal movement is challenging, especially on regional scales. Here, Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity observations and sea-level anomalies from altimetry are used in a joint inversion, ensuring a consistent decomposition of the global and regional sea-level rise budget. Over the years 2002-2014, we find a global mean steric trend of 1.38 ± 0.16 mm/y, compared with a total trend of 2.74 ± 0.58 mm/y. This is significantly larger than steric trends derived from in situ temperature/salinity profiles and models which range from 0.66 ± 0.2 to 0.94 ± 0.1 mm/y. Mass contributions from ice sheets and glaciers (1.37 ± 0.09 mm/y, accelerating with 0.03 ± 0.02 mm/y(2)) are offset by a negative hydrological component (-0.29 ± 0.26 mm/y). The combined mass rate (1.08 ± 0.3 mm/y) is smaller than previous GRACE estimates (up to 2 mm/y), but it is consistent with the sum of individual contributions (ice sheets, glaciers, and hydrology) found in literature. The altimetric sea-level budget is closed by coestimating a remaining component of 0.22 ± 0.26 mm/y. Well above average sea-level rise is found regionally near the Philippines (14.7 ± 4.39 mm/y) and Indonesia (8.3 ± 4.7 mm/y) which is dominated by steric components (11.2 ± 3.58 mm/y and 6.4 ± 3.18 mm/y, respectively). In contrast, in the central and Eastern part of the Pacific, negative steric trends (down to -2.8 ± 1.53 mm/y) are detected. Significant regional components are found, up to 5.3 ± 2.6 mm/y in the northwest Atlantic, which are likely due to ocean bottom pressure variations.

  13. Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Agriculture on a Regional Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka Wysocka-Czubaszek

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, agriculture has to meet the growing food demand together with high requirements of environmental protection, especially regarding the climate change. The greenhouse gas emissions differ not only on a global, but also on a regional scale, and mitigation strategies are effective when they are adapted properly. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to present the results of methane (CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O emissions inventory on a regional level in Poland in years 1999-2015. The CH4 and N2O emissions were calculated according to the methodology used by the National Centre for Emissions Management (NCEM for national inventory for United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol. The data were taken from Central Statistical Office of Poland. The CH4 emissions in all studied years varied strongly between voivodeships and ranged from 5.6-7.5 Gg y-1 in the Lubuskie Voivodeship to 84.8-104.3 Gg y-1 in the Mazowieckie Voivodeship. While in most voivodeships the CH4 emissions dropped down, in Podlaskie, Mazursko-Warmińskie, and Wielkopolskie voivodeships, the emissions of this gas increased significantly as a consequence of the development of dairy and meat production. In 1999, the highest N2O fluxes were calculated for the Wielkopolskie (5.7 Gg y-1, Mazowieckie (4.8 Gg y-1 Kujawsko-Pomorskie (3.5 Gg y-1 and Lubelskie (3.3 Gg y-1 voivodeships, while in 2015, the highest nitrous oxide emissions were calculated for the Wielkopolskie (7.3 Gg y-1, Mazowieckie (5.5 Gg y-1, Kujawsko-Pomorskie (4.1 Gg y-1 and Podlaskie (4.1 Gg y-1 voivodeships. In the studied period, the contribution of N2O emissions from crop production increased in almost all voivodeships except the Podlaskie, Lubuskie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie regions. The growth in emissions from mineral fertilization and crop residue incorporation, together with the increase of emission from the animal sector in some regions of Poland, resulted in the higher national

  14. Offshore wind power resource assessment using Oceansat-2 scatterometer data at a regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gadad, Sanjeev; Deka, Paresh Chandra

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Accuracy assessment of Oceansat-2 scatterometer (OSCAT) winds by the in situ real-time ship observations for study area. • OSCAT data for two years (2011 and 2012) were used to evaluate the offshore wind power potential for the Karnataka state. • Wind speed and power atlases are developed to study the spatial distribution over study area. • 9,091 MW potential was estimated using 5 MW wind turbine in the Monopile region. • Recommend development of 10% of the estimated potential, 116% of energy deficit for 2012–13 can be met. - Abstract: In the offshore region the scarcity of in situ wind data in space proves to be a major setback for wind power potential assessments. Satellite data effectively overcomes this setback by providing continuous and total spatial coverage. The study intends to assess the offshore wind power resource of the Karnataka state, which is located on the west coast of India. Oceansat-2 scatterometer (OSCAT) wind data and GIS based methodology were adopted in the study. The OSCAT data accuracy was assessed using INCOIS Realtime All Weather Station (IRAWS) data. Wind speed maps at 10 m, 90 m and wind power density maps using OSCAT data were developed to understand the spatial distribution of winds over the study area. Bathymetric map was developed based on the available foundation types and demarking various exclusion zones to help in minimizing conflicts. The wind power generation capacity estimation performed using REpower 5 MW turbine, based on the water depth classes was found to be 9,091 MW in Monopile (0–35 m), 11,709 MW in Jacket (35–50 m), 23,689 MW in Advanced Jacket (50–100 m) and 117,681 MW in Floating (100–1000 m) foundation technology. In Indian scenario major thrust for wind farm development in Monopile region is required. Therefore as first phase of development, if 10% of the estimated potential in the region can be developed then, 116% of energy deficit for FY 2011–12 could be met. Also, up to 79

  15. Assessing landscape hydroperiods across the Mekong Basin using multi-scale remote sensing to understand water-energy-food tradeoffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torbick, N.; Salas, W.; Qi, J.; Huang, X.

    2017-12-01

    In the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB), population growth and transitioning economies, shifting climate, and intense pressures for resources are driving tradeoffs among the water-enegery-food (WEF) nexus. Rice production and irrigation, wetlands habitat, and damn constructions are intertwinned across the region. There are 11 major hydropower dams on the main stem of the Lower Mekong River and many smaller dams in the basin. At the same time increased pressure for food production has amplified cropping intensity and irrigation infrastructure projects. These human acitivies are impacting inundation patterns and phenology of wetland and lake ecosystems. We are mapping rice, wetlands, and lake inundation dynamics using multi-scale satellite remote sensing. New opportunities exist for moderate scale, near-daily mapping of rice, wetland, shrimp, and lake hydroperiod with multi-source imaging and BigData computational approaches on the NAS cloud. Primarily we rely on Sentinel-1 IW and PALSAR-2 ScanSAR to map inundation dynamics at 10m resolution including under canopy conditions using double bounce properties. As part of this effort we are assessing different damn impacts at case studies in Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam with high resolution commercial imagery, social surveys, and socioeconomic models. These dams are currently regulated individually without coordination. As a result, their operation has outsized impacts on lake and wetland ecologies, negatively affecting the associated ecosystem services that local communities have relied on. All new products are shared openly with the science community. Case study illustrations will be presented.

  16. Spectral damping scaling factors for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaeian, Sanaz; Bozorgnia, Yousef; Idriss, I.M.; Campbell, Kenneth; Abrahamson, Norman; Silva, Walter

    2012-01-01

    Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for elastic response spectra, including the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models, are typically developed at a 5% viscous damping ratio. In reality, however, structural and non-structural systems can have damping ratios other than 5%, depending on various factors such as structural types, construction materials, level of ground motion excitations, among others. This report provides the findings of a comprehensive study to develop a new model for a Damping Scaling Factor (DSF) that can be used to adjust the 5% damped spectral ordinates predicted by a GMPE to spectral ordinates with damping ratios between 0.5 to 30%. Using the updated, 2011 version of the NGA database of ground motions recorded in worldwide shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions (i.e., the NGA-West2 database), dependencies of the DSF on variables including damping ratio, spectral period, moment magnitude, source-to-site distance, duration, and local site conditions are examined. The strong influence of duration is captured by inclusion of both magnitude and distance in the DSF model. Site conditions are found to have less significant influence on DSF and are not included in the model. The proposed model for DSF provides functional forms for the median value and the logarithmic standard deviation of DSF. This model is heteroscedastic, where the variance is a function of the damping ratio. Damping Scaling Factor models are developed for the “average” horizontal ground motion components, i.e., RotD50 and GMRotI50, as well as the vertical component of ground motion.

  17. The Influence of Large-Scale Circulation on Fire Outbreaks in the Amazon Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, L. B. M.; Romao, M.; Freitas, A. C. V.

    2017-12-01

    The combination of alterations in land use cover and severe droughts may dramatically increase fire outbreaks. Tropical convection in the Amazon Basin is regulated mainly by large-scale atmospheric systems such as the Walker circulation. Many of the documented drought episodes in the Amazon occurred during intense El Niño events such as those recorded in 1926, 1983, 1997-1998, and 2010. However, not all El Niño events are related to drought in the Amazon. Recent studies have also pointed out the importance of the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the modulation of the Amazonian climate, as observed during the drought episodes in 2005 and 2010. This work investigates the fire outbreak tendency in the Amazon region, and the influence of large-scale circulation on these events. Data from the Fire Program of the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE) show a substantial increase in the number of fire outbreaks in the last few years, especially during 2016. However, in the 2017 year a sharp drop in fire outbreaks reaching levels similar to the years prior to 2016 is being noted, already showing a reduction of 54% in relation to the preceding 2016 year. The 2015-2016 period was marked by one of the strongest El Niño in history. This was reflected in the increase of the number of fire outbreaks due to the increase of the drought and temperature elevation period. On the other hand, the 2017 year is being characterized by a condition of neutrality in relation to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, and have overall presented positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. Variations of these systems and their relation to fire outbreaks is demonstrated.

  18. Regional and urban down scaling of global climate scenarios for health impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Jose, R.; Perez, J. L.; Perez, L.; Gonzalez, R. M.; Pecci, J.; Garzon, A.; Palacios, M.

    2015-07-01

    In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meteorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed down scaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the no feedback simulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. (Author)

  19. Intermediate-Scale Experimental Study to Improve Fundamental Understanding of Attenuation Capacity for Leaking CO2 in Heterogeneous Shallow Aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plampin, Michael R.; Porter, Mark L.; Pawar, Rajesh J.; Illangasekare, Tissa H.

    2017-12-01

    To assess the risks of Geologic Carbon Sequestration (GCS), it is crucial to understand the fundamental physicochemical processes that may occur if and when stored CO2 leaks upward from a deep storage reservoir into the shallow subsurface. Intermediate-scale experiments allow for improved understanding of the multiphase evolution processes that control CO2 migration behavior in the subsurface, because the boundary conditions, initial conditions, and porous media parameters can be better controlled and monitored in the laboratory than in field settings. For this study, a large experimental test bed was designed to mimic a cross section of a shallow aquifer with layered geologic heterogeneity. As water with aqueous CO2 was injected into the system to mimic a CO2-charged water leakage scenario, the spatiotemporal evolution of the multiphase CO2 plume was monitored. Similar experiments were performed with two different sand combinations to assess the relative effects of different types of geologic facies transitions on the CO2 evolution processes. Significant CO2 attenuation was observed in both scenarios, but by fundamentally different mechanisms. When the porous media layers had very different permeabilities, attenuation was caused by local accumulation (structural trapping) and slow redissolution of gas phase CO2. When the permeability difference between the layers was relatively small, on the other hand, gas phase continually evolved over widespread areas near the leading edge of the aqueous plume, which also attenuated CO2 migration. This improved process understanding will aid in the development of models that could be used for effective risk assessment and monitoring programs for GCS projects.

  20. Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scales are a visible peeling or flaking of outer skin layers. These layers are called the stratum ... Scales may be caused by dry skin, certain inflammatory skin conditions, or infections. Examples of disorders that ...

  1. Development of a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model to assess population exposure at a regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caudeville, Julien; Bonnard, Roseline; Boudet, Céline; Denys, Sébastien; Govaert, Gérard; Cicolella, André

    2012-08-15

    Analyzing the relationship between the environment and health has become a major focus of public health efforts in France, as evidenced by the national action plans for health and the environment. These plans have identified the following two priorities: - identify and manage geographic areas where hotspot exposures are a potential risk to human health; and - reduce exposure inequalities. The aim of this study is to develop a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model for detecting vulnerable populations and analyzing exposure determinants at a fine resolution and regional scale. A multimedia exposure model was developed by INERIS to assess the transfer of substances from the environment to humans through inhalation and ingestion pathways. The RESPIR project adds a spatial dimension by linking GIS (Geographic Information System) to the model. Tools are developed using modeling, spatial analysis and geostatistic methods to build and discretize interesting variables and indicators from different supports and resolutions on a 1-km(2) regular grid. We applied this model to the risk assessment of exposure to metals (cadmium, lead and nickel) using data from a region in France (Nord-Pas-de-Calais). The considered exposure pathways include the atmospheric contaminant inhalation and ingestion of soil, vegetation, meat, egg, milk, fish and drinking water. Exposure scenarios are defined for different reference groups (age, dietary properties, and the fraction of food produced locally). The two largest risks correspond to an ancient industrial site (Metaleurop) and the Lille agglomeration. In these areas, cadmium, vegetation ingestion and soil contamination are the principal determinants of the computed risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Stress Testing Water Resource Systems at Regional and National Scales with Synthetic Drought Event Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, J. W.; Mortazavi-Naeini, M.; Coxon, G.; Guillod, B. P.; Allen, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    Water resources systems can fail to deliver the services required by water users (and deprive the environment of flow requirements) in many different ways. In an attempt to make systems more resilient, they have also been made more complex, for example through a growing number of large-scale transfers, optimized storages and reuse plants. These systems may be vulnerable to complex variants of hydrological variability in space and time, and behavioural adaptations by water users. In previous research we have used non-parametric stochastic streamflow generators to test the vulnerability of water resource systems. Here we use a very large ensemble of regional climate model outputs from the weather@home crowd-sourced citizen science project, which has generated more than 30,000 years of synthetic weather for present and future climates in the UK and western Europe, using the HadAM3P regional climate model. These simulations have been constructed in order to preserve prolonged drought characteristics, through treatment of long-memory processes in ocean circulations and soil moisture. The weather simulations have been propagated through the newly developed DynaTOP national hydrological for Britain, in order to provide low flow simulations at points of water withdrawal for public water supply, energy and agricultural abstractors. We have used the WATHNET water resource simulation model, set up for the Thames Basin and for all of the large water resource zones in England, to simulate the frequency, severity and duration of water shortages in all of these synthetic weather conditions. In particular, we have sought to explore systemic vulnerabilities associated with inter-basin transfers and the trade-offs between different water users. This analytical capability is providing the basis for (i) implementation of the Duty of Resilience, which has been placed upon the water industry in the 2014 Water Act and (ii) testing reformed abstraction arrangements which the UK government

  3. Procedures for the estimation of regional scale atmospheric emissions—An example from the North West Region of England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindley, S. J.; Longhurst, J. W. S.; Watson, A. F. R.; Conlan, D. E.

    This paper considers the value of applying an alternative pro rata methodology to the estimation of atmospheric emissions from a given regional or local area. Such investigations into less time and resource intensive means of providing estimates in comparison to traditional methods are important due to the potential role of new methods in the development of air quality management plans. A pro rata approach is used here to estimate emissions of SO 2, NO x, CO, CO 2, VOCs and black smoke from all sources and Pb from transportation for the North West region of England. This method has the advantage of using readily available data as well as being an easily repeatable procedure which provides a good indication of emissions to be expected from a particular geographical region. This can then provide the impetus for further emission studies and ultimately a regional/local air quality management plan. Results suggest that between 1987 and 1991 trends in the emissions of the pollutants considered have been less favourable in the North West region than in the nation as a whole.

  4. A basin-scale approach for assessing water resources in a semiarid environment: San Diego region, California and Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. E. Flint

    2012-10-01

    the coastal plain aquifer to the Pacific Ocean, is calculated to be approximately 50 million cubic meters per year.

    The area-scale assessment of water resources highlights several hydrologic features of the San Diego region. Groundwater recharge is episodic; the Basin Characterization Model output shows that 90 percent of simulated recharge occurred during 3 percent of the 1982–2009 period. The groundwater aquifer may also be quite permeable. A reconnaissance-level groundwater flow model for the San Diego River basin was used to check the water budget estimates, and the basic interaction of the surface-water and groundwater system, and the flow values, were found to be reasonable. Horizontal hydraulic conductivity values of the volcanic and metavolcanic bedrock in San Diego region range from 1 to 10 m per day. Overall, results establish an initial hydrologic assessment formulated on the basis of sparse hydrologic data. The described flow variability, extrapolation, and unique characteristics represent a realistic view of current (2012 hydrologic understanding for the San Diego region.

  5. GIS-based approach for potential analysis of solar PV generation at the regional scale: A case study of Fujian Province

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Yan-wei; Hof, Angela; Wang, Run; Liu, Jian; Lin, Yan-jie; Yang, De-wei

    2013-01-01

    Spatial variation of solar energy is crucial for the estimation of the regional potential and selection of construction location. This paper presents a case study of using high resolution grid map of solar radiation combined with the other restriction factors to evaluate the comprehensive potential analysis of solar PV generation at the regional scale, in order to present a framework of decision support tool for solar energy management in a regional area. The cost of PV generation is calculated based on the geographical distribution of technical potential. Moreover, geospatial supply curve (GSC) is employed to portray the evolution of available potential of photovoltaics (PV) generation with the increase of the generation cost. By integrating the economic evaluation variables of net present value and simple payback period, grid-based economic feasibility of PV generation project is then carried out under two feed-in-tariff scenarios. Finally, total CO 2 reduction potential and its spatial distribution in the study area are calculated. The results confirm that PV technology provides high potential for roof-top application and large-scale PV stations. Additionally, determining a reasonable feed-in tariff is essential for expanding the application of solar PV energy. The findings improve understanding of regional renewable energy strategies and the supply/demand assessment. - Highlights: • We developed a grid-based comprehensive potential analysis framework of solar energy at the regional scale. • We evaluated the technical potential of solar PV generation. • We calculated the cost of PV generation and got the geospatial supply curve (GSC) of Fujian Province. • PV technology provides high potential for roof-top application and large-scale PV stations. • Determining a reasonable feed-in tariff is essential for expanding the application of solar PV energy

  6. Global trophic ecology of yellowfin, bigeye, and albacore tunas: Understanding predation on micronekton communities at ocean-basin scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, Leanne M.; Kuhnert, Petra M.; Pethybridge, Heidi R.; Young, Jock W.; Olson, Robert J.; Logan, John M.; Goñi, Nicolas; Romanov, Evgeny; Allain, Valerie; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Abecassis, Melanie; Choy, C. Anela; Hobday, Alistair J.; Simier, Monique; Galván-Magaña, Felipe; Potier, Michel; Ménard, Frederic

    2017-06-01

    Predator-prey interactions for three commercially valuable tuna species: yellowfin (Thunnus albacares), bigeye (T. obesus), and albacore (T. alalunga), collected over a 40-year period from the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, were used to quantitatively assess broad, macro-scale trophic patterns in pelagic ecosystems. Analysis of over 14,000 tuna stomachs, using a modified classification tree approach, revealed for the first time the global expanse of pelagic predatory fish diet and global patterns of micronekton diversity. Ommastrephid squids were consistently one of the top prey groups by weight across all tuna species and in most ocean bodies. Interspecific differences in prey were apparent, with epipelagic scombrid and mesopelagic paralepidid fishes globally important for yellowfin and bigeye tunas, respectively, while vertically-migrating euphausiid crustaceans were important for albacore tuna in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Diet diversity showed global and regional patterns among tuna species. In the central and western Pacific Ocean, characterized by low productivity, a high diversity of micronekton prey was detected while low prey diversity was evident in highly productive coastal waters where upwelling occurs. Spatial patterns of diet diversity were most variable in yellowfin and bigeye tunas while a latitudinal diversity gradient was observed with lower diversity in temperate regions for albacore tuna. Sea-surface temperature was a reasonable predictor of the diets of yellowfin and bigeye tunas, whereas chlorophyll-a was the best environmental predictor of albacore diet. These results suggest that the ongoing expansion of warmer, less productive waters in the world's oceans may alter foraging opportunities for tunas due to regional changes in prey abundances and compositions.

  7. The Role of Water Governance and Irrigation Technologies in Regional-Scale Water Use and Consumption in the US West

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, R. B.; Grogan, D. S.; Frolking, S. E.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Zuidema, S.; Fowler, L.; Caccese, R. T.; Peklak, D. L.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    2017-12-01

    Water management in the Western USA is challenged by the demands of an increased population, ecological needs and changing values for water use, and a broadening of variability in climate, which together have created physical limits on water availability. The management of scarce water resources in this region is strictly constrained by the current legal structure (prior appropriation water rights) on one hand, and on the other assisted by the development of new, efficient water delivery and application technologies. Therefore, critical components for a complete understanding of the hydrological landscape include the institutions governing water rights, the technologies used for the highly water consumptive agricultural sector, and the role institutions and technologies play in altering when and where water is used and consumed by humans or reserved for the environment. To explore the sensitivities of water availability within the human-physical system, we present a method to incorporate water rights allocated under the prior appropriation doctrine for the western U.S. into the University of New Hampshire macro-scale Water Balance Model to capture the essential structure of these rights and their impacts on different economic sectors in Idaho and across the US West. In addition to legal structures, new irrigation technologies also alter the efficiency and timing of water use. We assess the impacts of a variety of technologies for both the delivery of water to the agricultural fields and the application methods for bringing water to the crops on consumptive and non-consumptive agricultural water use. We explore the impacts relative to natural climate variability, investigate the role that return flows from different agricultural technologies have on regional water balance, and examine the sensitivity of the entire system to extremes such as extended drought. These methods are sufficiently generalizable to be used by other hydrological models.

  8. Simulating Complex, Cold-region Process Interactions Using a Multi-scale, Variable-complexity Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate management of water resources is necessary for social, economic, and environmental sustainability worldwide. In locations with seasonal snowcovers, the accurate prediction of these water resources is further complicated due to frozen soils, solid-phase precipitation, blowing snow transport, and snowcover-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Complex process interactions and feedbacks are a key feature of hydrological systems and may result in emergent phenomena, i.e., the arising of novel and unexpected properties within a complex system. One example is the feedback associated with blowing snow redistribution, which can lead to drifts that cause locally-increased soil moisture, thus increasing plant growth that in turn subsequently impacts snow redistribution, creating larger drifts. Attempting to simulate these emergent behaviours is a significant challenge, however, and there is concern that process conceptualizations within current models are too incomplete to represent the needed interactions. An improved understanding of the role of emergence in hydrological systems often requires high resolution distributed numerical hydrological models that incorporate the relevant process dynamics. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) provides a novel tool for examining cold region hydrological systems. Key features include efficient terrain representation, allowing simulations at various spatial scales, reduced computational overhead, and a modular process representation allowing for an alternative-hypothesis framework. Using both physics-based and conceptual process representations sourced from long term process studies and the current cold regions literature allows for comparison of process representations and importantly, their ability to produce emergent behaviours. Examining the system in a holistic, process-based manner can hopefully derive important insights and aid in development of improved process representations.

  9. Impacts of crop growth dynamics on soil quality at the regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2014-05-01

    Agricultural land use and in particular crop growth dynamics can greatly affect soil quality. Both the amount of soil lost from erosion by water and soil organic matter are key indicators for soil quality. The aim was to develop a modelling framework for quantifying the impacts of crop growth dynamics on soil quality at the regional scale with test case Flanders. A framework for modelling the impacts of crop growth on soil erosion and soil organic matter was developed by coupling the dynamic crop cover model REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) to the PESERA soil erosion model (Kirkby et al., 2009) and to the RothC carbon model (Coleman and Jenkinson, 1999). All three models are process-based, spatially distributed and intended as a regional diagnostic tool. A geo-database was constructed covering 10 years of crop rotation in Flanders using the IACS parcel registration (Integrated Administration and Control System). Crop allometric models were developed from variety trials to calculate crop residues for common crops in Flanders and subsequently derive stable organic matter fluxes to the soil. Results indicate that crop growth dynamics and crop rotations influence soil quality for a very large percentage. soil erosion mainly occurs in the southern part of Flanders, where silty to loamy soils and a hilly topography are responsible for soil loss rates of up to 40 t/ha. Parcels under maize, sugar beet and potatoes are most vulnerable to soil erosion. Crop residues of grain maize and winter wheat followed by catch crops contribute most to the total carbon sequestered in agricultural soils. For the same rotations carbon sequestration is highest on clay soils and lowest on sandy soils. This implies that agricultural policies that impact on agricultural land management influence soil quality for a large percentage. The coupled REGCROP-PESERA-ROTHC model allows for quantifying the impact of seasonal and year-to-year crop growth dynamics on soil quality. When coupled to a multi-annual crop

  10. Alloy synthesis using the mach stem region in an axial symmetric implosive shock: Understanding the pressure strain-temperature contributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staudhammer, Karl P.

    2004-01-01

    The Mach stem region in an axial symmetric shock implosion has generally been avoided in the dynamic consolidation of powders for a number of reasons. The prime reason being that the convergence of the shock waves in the cylindrical axis produce enormous pressures and concomitant temperatures that have melted tungsten. This shock wave convergence consequently results in a discontinuity in the hydro-code calculations. Dynamic deformation experiments on gold plated 304L stainless steel powders were undertaken. These experiments utilized pressures of 0.08 to 1.0 Mbar and contained a symmetric radial melt region along the central axis of the sample holder. To understand the role of deformation in a porous material, the pressure, and temperature as well as the deformation heat and associated defects must be accounted for. When the added heat of consolidation deformation exceeds the melt temperature of the 304 powders, a melt zone results that can consume large regions of the compact while still under the high-pressure pulse. As the shock wave traverses the sample and is removed in a momentum trap, its pressure/temperature are quenched. It is within this region that very high diffusion/alloying occurs and has been observed in the gold plated powders. Anomalous increases of gold diffusion into 304 stainless steel have been observed via optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy and EDAX measurements. Values exceeding 1200 m/sec have been measured and correlated to the powder sizes, size distribution and packing density, concomitant with sample container strains ranging from 2.0% to 26%.

  11. A Physically-based Model For Rainfall-triggered Landslides At A Regional Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teles, V.; Capolongo, D.; Bras, R. L.

    Rainfall has long been recognized as a major cause of landslides. Historical records have shown that large rainfall can generate hundreds of landslides over hundreds of square kilometers. Although a great body of work has documented the morphology and mechanics of individual slope failure, few studies have considered the process at basin and regional scale. A landslide model is integrated in the landscape evolution model CHILD and simulates rainfall-triggered events based on a geotechnical index, the factor of safety, which takes into account the slope, the soil effective cohesion and weight, the friction angle, the regolith thickness and the saturated thickness. The stat- urated thickness is represented by the wetness index developed in the TOPMODEL. The topography is represented by a Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN). The factor of safety is computed at each node of the TIN. If the factor of safety is lower than 1, a landslide is intiated at this node. The regolith is then moved downstream. We applied the model to the Fortore basin whose valley cuts the flysch terrain that constitute the framework of the so called "sub-Apennines" chain that is the most eastern part of the Southern Apennines (Italy). We will discuss its value according to its sensitivity to the used parameters and compare it to the actual data available for this basin.

  12. Integrating statistical and process-based models to produce probabilistic landslide hazard at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.

    2017-12-01

    We develop a landslide hazard modeling approach that integrates a data-driven statistical model and a probabilistic process-based shallow landslide model for mapping probability of landslide initiation, transport, and deposition at regional scales. The empirical model integrates the influence of seven site attribute (SA) classes: elevation, slope, curvature, aspect, land use-land cover, lithology, and topographic wetness index, on over 1,600 observed landslides using a frequency ratio (FR) approach. A susceptibility index is calculated by adding FRs for each SA on a grid-cell basis. Using landslide observations we relate susceptibility index to an empirically-derived probability of landslide impact. This probability is combined with results from a physically-based model to produce an integrated probabilistic map. Slope was key in landslide initiation while deposition was linked to lithology and elevation. Vegetation transition from forest to alpine vegetation and barren land cover with lower root cohesion leads to higher frequency of initiation. Aspect effects are likely linked to differences in root cohesion and moisture controlled by solar insulation and snow. We demonstrate the model in the North Cascades of Washington, USA and identify locations of high and low probability of landslide impacts that can be used by land managers in their design, planning, and maintenance.

  13. Building energy retrofit index for policy making and decision support at regional and national scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khayatian, Fazel; Sarto, Luca; Dall'O', Giuliano

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Machine learning is used for pre-processing, fine-tuning and post-processing data. •A new indicator is introduced to support building energy retrofit policies. •The presented indicator is evaluated by a case study of 4767 buildings. •Current energy indicators can misrepresent the building energy retrofit potential. -- Abstract: The vast data collected since the enforcement of building energy labelling in Italy has provided valuable information that is useful for planning the future of building energy efficiency. However, the indicators provided through energy certificates are not suitable to support decisions, which target building energy retrofit in a regional scale. Considering the bias of the energy performance index toward a building’s shape, decisions based on this index will favor buildings with a specific geometric characteristics. This study tends to overcome this issue by introducing a new indicator, tailored to rank buildings based on retrofitable characteristics. The proposed framework is validated by a case study, in which a large dataset of office buildings are assigned with the new index. Results indicate that the proposed indicator succeeds to extract a single index, which is representative of all building characteristics subject to energy retrofit. A new labeling procedure is also compared with the conventional classification of buildings. It is observed that the proposed labels properly partitions the dataset, according to buildings’ potential to undergo energy retrofit.

  14. Moving Forward on Remote Sensing of Soil Salinity at Regional Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elia Scudiero

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Soil salinity undermines global agriculture by reducing crop yield and impairing soil quality. Irrigation management can help control salinity levels within the soil root-zone. To best manage water and soil resources, accurate regional-scale inventories of soil salinity are needed. The past decade has seen several successful applications of soil salinity remote sensing. Two salinity remote sensing approaches exist: direct assessment based on analysis of surface soil reflectance (the most popular approach, and indirect assessment of root-zone (e.g., 0-1 m soil salinity based on analysis of crop canopy reflectance. In this perspective paper, we call on researchers and funding agencies to pay greater attention to the indirect approach because it is better suited for surveying agriculturally important lands. A joint effort between agricultural producers, irrigation specialists, environmental scientists, and policy makers is needed to better manage saline agricultural soils, especially because of projected future water scarcity in arid and semi-arid irrigated areas. The remote sensing community should focus on providing the best tools for mapping and monitoring salinity in such areas, which are of vital relevance to global food production.

  15. Contribution of regional-scale fire events to ozone and PM2.5 ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Two specific fires from 2011 are tracked for local to regional scale contribution to ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) using a freely available regulatory modeling system that includes the BlueSky wildland fire emissions tool, Spare Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model, Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical grid model. The modeling system was applied to track the contribution from a wildfire (Wallow) and prescribed fire (Flint Hills) using both source sensitivity and source apportionment approaches. The model estimated fire contribution to primary and secondary pollutants are comparable using source sensitivity (brute-force zero out) and source apportionment (Integrated Source Apportionment Method) approaches. Model estimated O3 enhancement relative to CO is similar to values reported in literature indicating the modeling system captures the range of O3 inhibition possible near fires and O3 production both near the fire and downwind. O3 and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) are formed in the fire plume and transported downwind along with highly reactive VOC species such as formaldehyde and acetaldehyde that are both emitted by the fire and rapidly produced in the fire plume by VOC oxidation reactions. PAN and aldehydes contribute to continued downwind O3 production. The transport and thermal decomposition of PAN to nitrogen oxides (NOX) enables O3 production in areas

  16. Biodiversity and Land uses at a regional scale: Is agriculture the biggest threat for reptile assemblages?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Raquel; Santos, Xavier; Sillero, Neftali; Carretero, Miguel A.; Llorente, Gustavo A.

    2009-03-01

    The human exploitation of land resources (land use) has been considered the major factor responsible for changes in biodiversity within terrestrial ecosystems given that it affects directly the distribution of the fauna. Reptiles are known to be particularly sensitive to habitat change due to their ecological constraints. Here, the impact of land use on reptile diversity was analysed, choosing Catalonia (NE Iberia) as a case study. This region provides a suitable scenario for such a biogeogr