WorldWideScience

Sample records for understanding population dynamics

  1. Exploiting Fast-Variables to Understand Population Dynamics and Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

    2017-11-01

    We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are caused by individual events while the dynamics are described in terms of the time-evolution of a probability density function. In general, the application of the diffusion approximation still leaves a description that is quite complex. However, in many biological applications one or more of the processes happen slowly relative to the system's other processes, and the dynamics can be approximated as occurring within a slow low-dimensional subspace. We review these time-scale separation arguments and analyse the more simple stochastic dynamics that result in a number of cases. We stress that it is important to retain the demographic noise derived in this way, and emphasise this point by showing that it can alter the direction of selection compared to the prediction made from an analysis of the corresponding deterministic model.

  2. Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

    2016-02-01

    Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

  4. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

  5. Dynamic Analytical Capability to Better Understand and Anticipate Extremist Shifts Within Populations under Authoritarian Regimes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, Michael Lewis [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-11-01

    The purpose of this work is to create a generalizable data- and theory-supported capability to better understand and anticipate (with quantifiable uncertainty): 1) how the dynamics of allegiance formations between various groups and society are impacted by active conflict and by third-party interventions and 2) how/why extremist allegiances co-evolve over time due to changing geopolitical, sociocultural, and military conditions.

  6. Population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cooch, E. G.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Increases or decreases in the size of populations over space and time are, arguably, the motivation for much of pure and applied ecological research. The fundamental model for the dynamics of any population is straightforward: the net change over time in the abundance of some population is the simple difference between the number of additions (individuals entering the population minus the number of subtractions (individuals leaving the population. Of course, the precise nature of the pattern and process of these additions and subtractions is often complex, and population biology is often replete with fairly dense mathematical representations of both processes. While there is no doubt that analysis of such abstract descriptions of populations has been of considerable value in advancing our, there has often existed a palpable discomfort when the ‘beautiful math’ is faced with the often ‘ugly realities’ of empirical data. In some cases, this attempted merger is abandoned altogether, because of the paucity of ‘good empirical data’ with which the theoretician can modify and evaluate more conceptually–based models. In some cases, the lack of ‘data’ is more accurately represented as a lack of robust estimates of one or more parameters. It is in this arena that methods developed to analyze multiple encounter data from individually marked organisms has seen perhaps the greatest advances. These methods have rapidly evolved to facilitate not only estimation of one or more vital rates, critical to population modeling and analysis, but also to allow for direct estimation of both the dynamics of populations (e.g., Pradel, 1996, and factors influencing those dynamics (e.g., Nichols et al., 2000. The interconnections between the various vital rates, their estimation, and incorporation into models, was the general subject of our plenary presentation by Hal Caswell (Caswell & Fujiwara, 2004. Caswell notes that although interest has traditionally

  7. Fish population dynamics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gulland, J. A

    1977-01-01

    This book describes how the dynamics of fish populations can be analysed in terms of the factors affecting their rates of growth, mortality and reproduction, with particular emphasis on the effects of fishing...

  8. Market Squid Population Dynamics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains population dynamics data on paralarvae, juvenile and adult market squid collected off California and the US Pacific Northwest. These data were...

  9. Regional Population Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew Birt

    2011-01-01

    The population dynamics of the southern pine beetle (SPB) exhibit characteristic fluctuations between relatively long endemic and shorter outbreak periods. Populations exhibit complex and hierarchical spatial structure with beetles and larvae aggregating within individual trees, infestations with multiple infested trees, and regional outbreaks that comprise a large...

  10. Population dynamics of Eldana saccharina Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae): application of a biophysical model to understand phenological variation in an agricultural pest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleynhans, E; Barton, M G; Conlong, D E; Terblanche, J S

    2017-08-08

    Understanding pest population dynamics and seasonal phenology is a critical component of modern integrated pest-management programs. Accurate forecasting allows timely, cost-effective interventions, including maximum efficacy of, for example, biological control and/or sterile insect technique. Due to the variation in life stage-related sensitivity toward climate, insect pest population abundance models are often not easily interpreted or lack direct relevance to management strategies in the field. Here we apply a process-based (biophysical) model that incorporates climate data with life stage-dependent physiology and life history to attempt to predict Eldana saccharina life stage and generation turnover in sugarcane fields. Fitness traits are modelled at two agricultural locations in South Africa that differ in average temperature (hereafter a cold and a warm site). We test whether the life stage population structures in the field entering winter and local climate during winter directly affect development rates, and therefore interact to determine the population dynamics and phenological responses of E. saccharina in subsequent spring and summer seasons. The model predicts that: (1) E. saccharina can cycle through more generations at the warm site where fewer hours of cold and heat stress are endured, and (2) at the cold site, overwintering as pupae (rather than larvae) confer higher relative fitness and fecundity in the subsequent summer adult moths. The model predictions were compared with a large dataset of field observations from scouting records. Model predictions for larval presence (or absence) generally overlapped well with positive (or negative) scout records. These results are important for integrated pest management strategies by providing a useful foundation for future population dynamics models, and are applicable to a variety of agricultural landscapes, but especially the sugarcane industry of South Africa.

  11. Intrinsically dynamic population models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Schoen

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Intrinsically dynamic models (IDMs depict populations whose cumulative growth rate over a number of intervals equals the product of the long term growth rates (that is the dominant roots or dominant eigenvalues associated with each of those intervals. Here the focus is on the birth trajectory produced by a sequence of population projection (Leslie matrices. The elements of a Leslie matrix are represented as straightforward functions of the roots of the matrix, and new relationships are presented linking the roots of a matrix to its Net Reproduction Rate and stable mean age of childbearing. Incorporating mortality changes in the rates of reproduction yields an IDM when the subordinate roots are held constant over time. In IDMs, the birth trajectory generated by any specified sequence of Leslie matrices can be found analytically. In the Leslie model with 15 year age groups, the constant subordinate root assumption leads to reasonable changes in the age pattern of fertility, and equations (27 and (30 provide the population size and structure that result from changing levels of net reproduction. IDMs generalize the fixed rate stable population model. They can characterize any observed population, and can provide new insights into dynamic demographic behavior, including the momentum associated with gradual or irregular paths to zero growth.

  12. How systematic age underestimation can impede understanding of fish population dynamics: Lessons learned from a Lake Superior cisco stock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yule, D.L.; Stockwell, J.D.; Black, J.A.; Cullis, K.I.; Cholwek, G.A.; Myers, J.T.

    2008-01-01

    Systematic underestimation of fish age can impede understanding of recruitment variability and adaptive strategies (like longevity) and can bias estimates of survivorship. We suspected that previous estimates of annual survival (S; range = 0.20-0.44) for Lake Superior ciscoes Coregonus artedi developed from scale ages were biased low. To test this hypothesis, we estimated the total instantaneous mortality rate of adult ciscoes from the Thunder Bay, Ontario, stock by use of cohort-based catch curves developed from commercial gill-net catches and otolith-aged fish. Mean S based on otolith ages was greater for adult females (0.80) than for adult males (0.75), but these differences were not significant. Applying the results of a study of agreement between scale and otolith ages, we modeled a scale age for each otolith-aged fish to reconstruct catch curves. Using modeled scale ages, estimates of S (0.42 for females, 0.36 for males) were comparable with those reported in past studies. We conducted a November 2005 acoustic and midwater trawl survey to estimate the abundance of ciscoes when the fish were being harvested for roe. Estimated exploitation rates were 0.085 for females and 0.025 for males, and the instantaneous rates of fishing mortality were 0.089 for females and 0.025 for males. The instantaneous rates of natural mortality were 0.131 and 0.265 for females and males, respectively. Using otolith ages, we found that strong year-classes at large during November 2005 were caught in high numbers as age-1 fish in previous annual bottom trawl surveys, whereas weak or absent year-classes were not. For decades, large-scale fisheries on the Great Lakes were allowed to operate because ciscoes were assumed to be short lived and to have regular recruitment. We postulate that the collapse of these fisheries was linked in part to a misunderstanding of cisco biology driven by scale-ageing error. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  13. Nonlinear dynamics of interacting populations

    CERN Document Server

    Bazykin, Alexander D

    1998-01-01

    This book contains a systematic study of ecological communities of two or three interacting populations. Starting from the Lotka-Volterra system, various regulating factors are considered, such as rates of birth and death, predation and competition. The different factors can have a stabilizing or a destabilizing effect on the community, and their interplay leads to increasingly complicated behavior. Studying and understanding this path to greater dynamical complexity of ecological systems constitutes the backbone of this book. On the mathematical side, the tool of choice is the qualitative the

  14. STATUS OF THE RELICT LEOPARD FROG (RANA ONCA): OUR LIMITED UNDERSTANDING OF THE DISTRIBUTION, SIZE, AND DYNAMICS OF EXTANT AND RECENTLY EXTINCT POPULATIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The relict leopard frog (Rana onca) was once thought to be extinct, but has recently been shown to comprise a valid taxon with extant populations. Here, we discuss research from several studies, conducted between 1991 and 200 1, that represent the basis for our understanding of t...

  15. Evolutionary dynamics of diploid populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desimone, Ralph; Newman, Timothy

    2003-10-01

    There has been much recent interest in constructing computer models of evolutionary dynamics. Typically these models focus on asexual population dynamics, which are appropriate for haploid organsims such as bacteria. Using a recently developed ``genome template'' model, we extend the algorithm to a sexual population of diploid organisms. We will present some early results showing the temporal evolution of mean fitness and genetic variation, and compare this to typical results from haploid populations.

  16. Africa population dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Akinyoade, A.; Damen, J.C.M.; Dietz, A.J.; Kilama, B.B.; Omme, van, G.

    2014-01-01

    Africa's population has grown extremely rapidly over the last fifty years from 289 million inhabitants in 1961 to more than 1 billion today. This is a growth rate of 350% in just half a century and the number of urban residents has increased even more quickly: from 65 million in 1960 to 460 million today, or from 20% to 46% of the population as a whole. Demographers predict that soon more than 50% of all Africans will be living in cities. The average life expectancy, literacy rates and primar...

  17. Africa population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akinyoade, A.; Damen, J.C.M.; Dietz, A.J.; Kilama, B.B.; Omme, van G.

    2014-01-01

    Africa's population has grown extremely rapidly over the last fifty years from 289 million inhabitants in 1961 to more than 1 billion today. This is a growth rate of 350% in just half a century and the number of urban residents has increased even more quickly: from 65 million in 1960 to 460 million

  18. Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.

    2015-01-01

    Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

  19. Dynamical systems in population biology

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-01-01

    This research monograph provides an introduction to the theory of nonautonomous semiflows with applications to population dynamics. It develops dynamical system approaches to various evolutionary equations such as difference, ordinary, functional, and partial differential equations, and pays more attention to periodic and almost periodic phenomena. The presentation includes persistence theory, monotone dynamics, periodic and almost periodic semiflows, basic reproduction ratios, traveling waves, and global analysis of prototypical population models in ecology and epidemiology. Research mathematicians working with nonlinear dynamics, particularly those interested in applications to biology, will find this book useful. It may also be used as a textbook or as supplementary reading for a graduate special topics course on the theory and applications of dynamical systems. Dr. Xiao-Qiang Zhao is a University Research Professor at Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada. His main research interests involve applied...

  20. Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

    2018-01-01

    Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.

  1. Understanding the sub-cellular dynamics of silicon transportation and synthesis in diatoms using population-level data and computational optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javaheri, Narjes; Dries, Roland; Kaandorp, Jaap

    2014-06-01

    Controlled synthesis of silicon is a major challenge in nanotechnology and material science. Diatoms, the unicellular algae, are an inspiring example of silica biosynthesis, producing complex and delicate nano-structures. This happens in several cell compartments, including cytoplasm and silica deposition vesicle (SDV). Considering the low concentration of silicic acid in oceans, cells have developed silicon transporter proteins (SIT). Moreover, cells change the level of active SITs during one cell cycle, likely as a response to the level of external nutrients and internal deposition rates. Despite this topic being of fundamental interest, the intracellular dynamics of nutrients and cell regulation strategies remain poorly understood. One reason is the difficulties in measurements and manipulation of these mechanisms at such small scales, and even when possible, data often contain large errors. Therefore, using computational techniques seems inevitable. We have constructed a mathematical model for silicon dynamics in the diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana in four compartments: external environment, cytoplasm, SDV and deposited silica. The model builds on mass conservation and Michaelis-Menten kinetics as mass transport equations. In order to find the free parameters of the model from sparse, noisy experimental data, an optimization technique (global and local search), together with enzyme related penalty terms, has been applied. We have connected population-level data to individual-cell-level quantities including the effect of early division of non-synchronized cells. Our model is robust, proven by sensitivity and perturbation analysis, and predicts dynamics of intracellular nutrients and enzymes in different compartments. The model produces different uptake regimes, previously recognized as surge, externally-controlled and internally-controlled uptakes. Finally, we imposed a flux of SITs to the model and compared it with previous classical kinetics. The model

  2. Understanding the sub-cellular dynamics of silicon transportation and synthesis in diatoms using population-level data and computational optimization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narjes Javaheri

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Controlled synthesis of silicon is a major challenge in nanotechnology and material science. Diatoms, the unicellular algae, are an inspiring example of silica biosynthesis, producing complex and delicate nano-structures. This happens in several cell compartments, including cytoplasm and silica deposition vesicle (SDV. Considering the low concentration of silicic acid in oceans, cells have developed silicon transporter proteins (SIT. Moreover, cells change the level of active SITs during one cell cycle, likely as a response to the level of external nutrients and internal deposition rates. Despite this topic being of fundamental interest, the intracellular dynamics of nutrients and cell regulation strategies remain poorly understood. One reason is the difficulties in measurements and manipulation of these mechanisms at such small scales, and even when possible, data often contain large errors. Therefore, using computational techniques seems inevitable. We have constructed a mathematical model for silicon dynamics in the diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana in four compartments: external environment, cytoplasm, SDV and deposited silica. The model builds on mass conservation and Michaelis-Menten kinetics as mass transport equations. In order to find the free parameters of the model from sparse, noisy experimental data, an optimization technique (global and local search, together with enzyme related penalty terms, has been applied. We have connected population-level data to individual-cell-level quantities including the effect of early division of non-synchronized cells. Our model is robust, proven by sensitivity and perturbation analysis, and predicts dynamics of intracellular nutrients and enzymes in different compartments. The model produces different uptake regimes, previously recognized as surge, externally-controlled and internally-controlled uptakes. Finally, we imposed a flux of SITs to the model and compared it with previous classical kinetics

  3. Understanding the Sub-Cellular Dynamics of Silicon Transportation and Synthesis in Diatoms Using Population-Level Data and Computational Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javaheri, Narjes; Dries, Roland; Kaandorp, Jaap

    2014-01-01

    Controlled synthesis of silicon is a major challenge in nanotechnology and material science. Diatoms, the unicellular algae, are an inspiring example of silica biosynthesis, producing complex and delicate nano-structures. This happens in several cell compartments, including cytoplasm and silica deposition vesicle (SDV). Considering the low concentration of silicic acid in oceans, cells have developed silicon transporter proteins (SIT). Moreover, cells change the level of active SITs during one cell cycle, likely as a response to the level of external nutrients and internal deposition rates. Despite this topic being of fundamental interest, the intracellular dynamics of nutrients and cell regulation strategies remain poorly understood. One reason is the difficulties in measurements and manipulation of these mechanisms at such small scales, and even when possible, data often contain large errors. Therefore, using computational techniques seems inevitable. We have constructed a mathematical model for silicon dynamics in the diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana in four compartments: external environment, cytoplasm, SDV and deposited silica. The model builds on mass conservation and Michaelis-Menten kinetics as mass transport equations. In order to find the free parameters of the model from sparse, noisy experimental data, an optimization technique (global and local search), together with enzyme related penalty terms, has been applied. We have connected population-level data to individual-cell-level quantities including the effect of early division of non-synchronized cells. Our model is robust, proven by sensitivity and perturbation analysis, and predicts dynamics of intracellular nutrients and enzymes in different compartments. The model produces different uptake regimes, previously recognized as surge, externally-controlled and internally-controlled uptakes. Finally, we imposed a flux of SITs to the model and compared it with previous classical kinetics. The model

  4. Evolutionary dynamics in structured populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowak, Martin A.; Tarnita, Corina E.; Antal, Tibor

    2010-01-01

    Evolutionary dynamics shape the living world around us. At the centre of every evolutionary process is a population of reproducing individuals. The structure of that population affects evolutionary dynamics. The individuals can be molecules, cells, viruses, multicellular organisms or humans. Whenever the fitness of individuals depends on the relative abundance of phenotypes in the population, we are in the realm of evolutionary game theory. Evolutionary game theory is a general approach that can describe the competition of species in an ecosystem, the interaction between hosts and parasites, between viruses and cells, and also the spread of ideas and behaviours in the human population. In this perspective, we review the recent advances in evolutionary game dynamics with a particular emphasis on stochastic approaches in finite sized and structured populations. We give simple, fundamental laws that determine how natural selection chooses between competing strategies. We study the well-mixed population, evolutionary graph theory, games in phenotype space and evolutionary set theory. We apply these results to the evolution of cooperation. The mechanism that leads to the evolution of cooperation in these settings could be called ‘spatial selection’: cooperators prevail against defectors by clustering in physical or other spaces. PMID:20008382

  5. Conclusions, synthesis, and future directions: understanding sources of population change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esler, Daniel N.; Flint, Paul L.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Savard, Jean-Pierre L.; Eadie, John M.

    2015-01-01

    The material in this volume reflects the burgeoning interest in sea ducks, both as study species with compelling and unique ecological attributes and as taxa of conservation concern. In this review, we provide perspective on the current state of sea duck knowledge by highlighting key findings in the preceding chapters that are of particular value for understanding or influencing population change. We also introduce a conceptual model that characterizes links among topics covered by individual chapters and places them in the context of demographic responses. Finally, we offer recommendations for areas of future research that we suggest will have importance for understanding and managing sea duck population dynamics.

  6. Harvest and dynamics of duck populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedinger, James S.; Herzog, Mark P.

    2012-01-01

    The role of harvest in the dynamics of waterfowl populations continues to be debated among scientists and managers. Our perception is that interested members of the public and some managers believe that harvest influences North American duck populations based on calls for more conservative harvest regulations. A recent review of harvest and population dynamics of North American mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations (Pöysä et al. 2004) reached similar conclusions. Because of the importance of this issue, we reviewed the evidence for an impact of harvest on duck populations. Our understanding of the effects of harvest is limited because harvest effects are typically confounded with those of population density; regulations are typically most liberal when populations are greatest. This problem also exists in the current Adaptive Harvest Management Program (Conn and Kendall 2004). Consequently, even where harvest appears additive to other mortality, this may be an artifact of ignoring effects of population density. Overall, we found no compelling evidence for strong additive effects of harvest on survival in duck populations that could not be explained by other factors.

  7. Population dynamics in variable environments

    CERN Document Server

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    1990-01-01

    Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula­ tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to re...

  8. Understanding and Modeling Teams As Dynamical Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie C. Gorman

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available By its very nature, much of teamwork is distributed across, and not stored within, interdependent people working toward a common goal. In this light, we advocate a systems perspective on teamwork that is based on general coordination principles that are not limited to cognitive, motor, and physiological levels of explanation within the individual. In this article, we present a framework for understanding and modeling teams as dynamical systems and review our empirical findings on teams as dynamical systems. We proceed by (a considering the question of why study teams as dynamical systems, (b considering the meaning of dynamical systems concepts (attractors; perturbation; synchronization; fractals in the context of teams, (c describe empirical studies of team coordination dynamics at the perceptual-motor, cognitive-behavioral, and cognitive-neurophysiological levels of analysis, and (d consider the theoretical and practical implications of this approach, including new kinds of explanations of human performance and real-time analysis and performance modeling. Throughout our discussion of the topics we consider how to describe teamwork using equations and/or modeling techniques that describe the dynamics. Finally, we consider what dynamical equations and models do and do not tell us about human performance in teams and suggest future research directions in this area.

  9. Understanding the Entrepreneurial Process: a Dynamic Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vânia Maria Jorge Nassif

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available There is considerable predominance in the adoption of perspectives based on characteristics in research into entrepreneurship. However, most studies describe the entrepreneur from a static or snapshot approach; very few adopt a dynamic perspective. The aim of this study is to contribute to the enhancement of knowledge concerning entrepreneurial process dynamics through an understanding of the values, characteristics and actions of the entrepreneur over time. By focusing on personal attributes, we have developed a framework that shows the importance of affective and cognitive aspects of entrepreneurs and the way that they evolve during the development of their business.

  10. Complexity and simplification in understanding recruitment in benthic populations

    KAUST Repository

    Pineda, Jesús

    2008-11-13

    Research of complex systems and problems, entities with many dependencies, is often reductionist. The reductionist approach splits systems or problems into different components, and then addresses these components one by one. This approach has been used in the study of recruitment and population dynamics of marine benthic (bottom-dwelling) species. Another approach examines benthic population dynamics by looking at a small set of processes. This approach is statistical or model-oriented. Simplified approaches identify "macroecological" patterns or attempt to identify and model the essential, "first-order" elements of the system. The complexity of the recruitment and population dynamics problems stems from the number of processes that can potentially influence benthic populations, including (1) larval pool dynamics, (2) larval transport, (3) settlement, and (4) post-settlement biotic and abiotic processes, and larval production. Moreover, these processes are non-linear, some interact, and they may operate on disparate scales. This contribution discusses reductionist and simplified approaches to study benthic recruitment and population dynamics of bottom-dwelling marine invertebrates. We first address complexity in two processes known to influence recruitment, larval transport, and post-settlement survival to reproduction, and discuss the difficulty in understanding recruitment by looking at relevant processes individually and in isolation. We then address the simplified approach, which reduces the number of processes and makes the problem manageable. We discuss how simplifications and "broad-brush first-order approaches" may muddle our understanding of recruitment. Lack of empirical determination of the fundamental processes often results in mistaken inferences, and processes and parameters used in some models can bias our view of processes influencing recruitment. We conclude with a discussion on how to reconcile complex and simplified approaches. Although it

  11. Mission Driven Scene Understanding: Dynamic Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    International Society for Optical Engineering; c2001. 14. Siva P, Russell C, Xiang T, Agapito L. Looking beyond the image : Unsupervised learning for...60,000 was 0.0818 and the training error rate was 0.0273, which means that the CNN had “ learned ” to assign the correct class label to an image , when... images is necessary for scene understanding. Such dynamic environmental conditions (e.g., changing illumination, precipitation, and vegetation) can

  12. Flood trends and population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    Since the earliest recorded civilizations, such as those in Mesopotamia and Egypt that developed in the fertile floodplains of the Tigris and Euphrates and Nile rivers, humans tend to settle in flood prone areas as they offer favorable conditions for economic development. However, floodplains are also exposed to flood disasters that might cause severe socio-economic and environmental damages not to mention losses of human lives. A flood event turns to be a disaster when it coincides with a vulnerable environment exceeding society's capacity to manage the adverse consequences. This presentation discusses the link between hydrological risk and population change by referring to the outcomes of scientific works recently carried out in Africa and Europe. More specifically, it is shown that the severity of flood disasters, currently affecting more than 100 million people a year, might be seriously exacerbated because of population change. In fact, flood exposure and/or vulnerability might increase because of rapid population growth (and its spatial and temporal dynamics, e.g. urbanization) in the African continent and because of population ageing in many European countries. Lastly, timely and economically sustainable actions to mitigate this increasing hydrological risk are critically evaluated.

  13. The failure rate dynamics in heterogeneous populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim

    2013-01-01

    Most populations encountered in real world are heterogeneous. In reliability applications, the mixture (observed) failure rate, obviously, can be considered as a measure of ‘average’ quality in these populations. However, in addition to this average measure, some variability characteristics for failure rates can be very helpful in describing the time-dependent changes in quality of heterogeneous populations. In this paper, we discuss variance and the coefficient of variation of the corresponding random failure rate as variability measures for items in heterogeneous populations. Furthermore, there is often a risk that items of poor quality are selected for important missions. Therefore, along with the ‘average quality’ of a population, more ‘conservative’ quality measures should be also defined and studied. For this purpose, we propose the percentile and the tail-mixture of the failure rates as the corresponding conservative measures. Some illustrative examples are given. -- Highlights: ► This paper provides the insight on the variability measures in heterogeneous populations. ► The conservative quality measures in heterogeneous populations are defined. ► The utility of these measures is illustrated by meaningful examples. ► This paper provides a better understanding of the dynamics in heterogeneous populations

  14. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics : from teal to swans

    OpenAIRE

    Koons, D. N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, J. A.; Rotella, J. J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding of waterfowl population dynam...

  15. Understanding cooperative behavior in structurally disordered populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Zhang, W.; Du, P.; Choi, C. W.; Hui, P. M.

    2016-06-01

    The effects of an inhomogeneous competing environment on the extent of cooperation are studied within the context of a site-diluted evolutionary snowdrift game on a square lattice, with the occupied sites representing the players, both numerically and analytically. The frequency of cooperation ℱ C generally shows a non-monotonic dependence on the fraction of occupied sites ρ, for different values of the payoff parameter r. Slightly diluting a lattice leads to a lower cooperation for small and high values of r. For a range of r, however, dilution leads to an enhanced cooperation. An analytic treatment is developed for ℱC I + ℱC II, with ℱC I emphasizing the importance of the small clusters of players especially for ℱC II from the other players is shown to be inadequate. A local configuration approximation (LCA) that treats the local competing configurations as the variables and amounts to include spatial correlation up to the neighborhood of a player's neighbors is developed. Results of ℱ C ( ρ) and the number of different local configurations from LCA are in good agreement with simulation results. A transparent physical picture of the dynamics stemming from LCA is also presented. The theoretical approach provides a framework that can be readily applied to competing agent-based models in structurally ordered and disordered populations.

  16. Delay differential systems for tick population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Guihong; Thieme, Horst R; Zhu, Huaiping

    2015-11-01

    Ticks play a critical role as vectors in the transmission and spread of Lyme disease, an emerging infectious disease which can cause severe illness in humans or animals. To understand the transmission dynamics of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases, it is necessary to investigate the population dynamics of ticks. Here, we formulate a system of delay differential equations which models the stage structure of the tick population. Temperature can alter the length of time delays in each developmental stage, and so the time delays can vary geographically (and seasonally which we do not consider). We define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of stage structured tick populations. The tick population is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text] and dies out if [Formula: see text]. We present sufficient conditions under which the unique positive equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. In general, the positive equilibrium can be unstable and the system show oscillatory behavior. These oscillations are primarily due to negative feedback within the tick system, but can be enhanced by the time delays of the different developmental stages.

  17. Population dynamics and biology of an invasive population of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics and biology of an invasive population of mosquitofish Gambusia affinis in a temperate estuarine lake system. Hans Sloterdijk, Nicola C. James, M Kyle S. Smith, Werner Ekau, Olaf L.F. Weyl ...

  18. Analysis of Population Dynamics in World Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Gress

    2011-01-01

    Population dynamics is an important topic in current world economy. The size and growth of population have an impact on economic growth and development of individual countries and vice versa, economic development influences demographic variables in a country. The aim of the article is to analyze historical development of world population, population stock change and relations between population stock change and economic development.

  19. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

    2008-01-01

    , the effects of climate change may potentially extend through any of these interactions. In this chapter, we focus on the extent to which evolutionarily distinct species at different trophic levels respond to similar changes in climate. By using a broad spectrum of statistically and ecologically founded......, is related to differences in the compositions of predator and prey species. The significant inter-trophic interactions are centred on the collared lemming as a result of which there is a significant potential for indirect climate effects mediated across the established consumer-resource interactions......it is well established that climatic as well as biological factors, in concert, form the mechanistic basis for our understanding of how populations develop over time and across space. Although this seemingly suggests simplicity, the climate-biology dichotomy of population dynamics embraces...

  20. Understanding the population dimension in development planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, P C

    1983-01-01

    In the Philippines initial efforts to adopt population policies focused on reducing rapid population growth through fertility control. The history of the national population welfare congress, which started in 1978, reflects this emphasis on family planning as a major deterrent to rapid population growth. It was only in recent years that the 2-way relationship between population and development came to be better appreciated. The 6th National Populaton Welfare Congress was a response to this need to broaden the scope of population concerns and integrate the population dimension into development planning. This viewpoint regards population not as a demand variable but as a factor that can be influenced by economic and social development. Dr. Mercedes B. Concepcion, dean of the University of the Philippines Population Institute (UPPI), discussed population trends, prospects, and problems in a paper presented before the 6th congress. In 1980, she said, the Philippine population was 48.1 million persons, up by 11.4 million persons or 31%, over the3l.7 million enumerated in 1970. While the rate of populated growth remains high, data indicate a decreasing post-World War II trend, from 3.06% in 1948-60 to 2.68% in 1975-80. The proportion of the population below 15 has dropped by 2 percentage points, while the number of persons in the working ages 15-64 has increased. In 1 of the 3 group sessions during the congress, the participants tried to define the Philippines' population distribution goals, the requirement of an urban-rural balance, and priority intervention areas. In that session 2 main papers were presented -- one on human settlements and urbanization and the other on macroeconomic policies and their spatial implications. In another sessionplanners and researchers examined the socioeconomic and demographic impact of development programs, specifically the impact of rural electrification on fertility change in Misamis Oriental, a province in Southern Philippines. In the

  1. Understanding the Dynamics of Turkish Nationalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Carlos Razo, Jr.

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Many scholars have analyzed Turkish nationalism to understand its progress in the Turkish Republic from different perspectives. While some scholars have fore fronted the importance of cultural and religious aspects of Turkish nationalism, others have emphasized the significance of politics and economics in its formation. Three influential scholars have provided distinctive perceptions on the significance of this nationalism in Turkish society. Carter Vaughn Findley presents a thorough reevaluation of Turkish history in examining various dynamics of Turkish society. While Findley provides an overview on the role of nationalism in the nation’s history, Derya Bayir emphasizes that minorities are not protected in the Turkish legal system because the system aims to preserve Turkish nationalism. In contrast to these two perceptions, Jenny White expresses a modern analysis of the cultural and social aspects of Turkish society with an emphasis on the contrasting outlooks of Muslim nationalists and Kemalists on asserting one’s Turkishness. These three scholarly perspectives concerning the various aspects of Turkish nationalism are essential in assisting readers to grasp the impact of nationalism in Turkish society.

  2. Geography, European colonization, and past population dynamics in Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Vaz Silva, Luis

    2005-01-01

    Past population dynamics in Africa have remained largely elusive due to the lack of demographic data. Researchers are understandably deterred from trying to explain what is not known and African historical population estimates suffer from this lack of interest. In this paper I explain present day African population densities using mostly ecological factors as explanatory variables. I find evidence supporting the view that ecological factors deeply affected precolonial patterns of human settle...

  3. Leading edge gypsy moth population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. R. Carter; F. W. Ravlin; M. L. McManus

    1991-01-01

    Leading edge gypsy moth populations have been the focus of several intervention programs (MDIPM, AIPM). Knowledge of gypsy moth population dynamics in leading edge area is crucial for effective management. Populations in these areas tend to reach outbreak levels (noticeable defoliation) within three to four years after egg masses are first detected. Pheromone traps...

  4. Population dynamics and population control of Galium aparine L.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weide, van der R.Y.

    1993-01-01

    The population biology of Galium aparine L. needs to be better understood, in order to be able to rationalize decisions about the short- and long-term control of this weed species for different cropping practices.

    A population dynamics model was developed to

  5. Understanding dynamic capabilities through knowledge management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anders Paarup

    2006-01-01

    In the paper eight knowledge management activities are identified; knowledge creation, acquisition, capture, assembly, sharing, integration, leverage and exploitation. These activities are assembled into the three dynamic capabilities of knowledge development, knowledge (re)combination and knowle......In the paper eight knowledge management activities are identified; knowledge creation, acquisition, capture, assembly, sharing, integration, leverage and exploitation. These activities are assembled into the three dynamic capabilities of knowledge development, knowledge (re......)combination and knowledge use. The dynamic capabilities and the associated knowledge management activities create flows to and from the firm’s stock of knowledge and they support the creation and use of organizational capabilities....

  6. Understanding Microbial Communities: Function, Structure and Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-11

    microbial communities: Function, structure and dynamics’, at the Isaac Newton Institute, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom, from August to...dynamics’, at the Isaac Newton Institute, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom, from August to December 2014. The programme involved over 150...Communities: Function, Structure and Dynamics’, at the Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge University, UK, from 19th August 2014 – 19th December 2014

  7. Weed ecology and population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    A global rise in herbicide resistant weed genotypes, coupled with a growing demand for food produced with minimal external synthetic inputs, is driving producer interest in reducing reliance on herbicides for weed management. An improved understanding of weed ecology can support the design of weed s...

  8. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  9. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

    2016-02-01

    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

  10. Understanding Digital Learning from the Perspective of Systems Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Ayse

    2009-01-01

    The System Dynamics approach can be seen as a new way of understanding dynamical phenonema (natural, physical, biological, etc.) that occur in our daily lives taking into consideration not only single pairs of cause-effect variables, but the functioning of the system as a whole. This approach also provides the students with a new understanding in…

  11. Population dynamics in vasopressin cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leng, Gareth; Brown, Colin; Sabatier, Nancy; Scott, Victoria

    2008-01-01

    Most neurons sense and code change, and when presented with a constant stimulus they adapt, so as to be able to detect a fresh change. However, for some things it is important to know their absolute level; to encode such information, neurons must sustain their response to an unchanging stimulus while remaining able to respond to a change in that stimulus. One system that encodes the absolute level of a stimulus is the vasopressin system, which generates a hormonal signal that is proportional to plasma osmolality. Vasopressin cells sense plasma osmolality and secrete appropriate levels of vasopressin from the neurohypophysis as needed to control water excretion; this requires sustained secretion under basal conditions and the ability to increase (or decrease) secretion should plasma osmolality change. Here we explore the mechanisms that enable vasopressin cells to fulfill this function, and consider how coordination between the cells might distribute the secretory load across the population of vasopressin cells. 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  12. Population Dynamics and Air Pollution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flachs, Esben Meulengracht; Sørensen, Jan; Bønløkke, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To explore how three different assumptions on demographics affect the health impact of Danish emitted air pollution in Denmark from 2005 to 2030, with health impact modeled from 2005 to 2050. Methods. Modeled air pollution from Danish sources was used as exposure in a newly developed......) a static year 2005 population, (2) morbidity and mortality fixed at the year 2005 level, or (3) an expected development. Results. The health impact of air pollution was estimated at 672,000, 290,000, and 280,000 lost life years depending on demographic assumptions and the corresponding social costs at 430.......4 M€, 317.5 M€, and 261.6 M€ through the modeled years 2005–2050. Conclusion. The modeled health impact of air pollution differed widely with the demographic assumptions, and thus demographics and assumptions on demographics played a key role in making health impact assessments on air pollution....

  13. Understanding the complexity of human gait dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scafetta, Nicola; Marchi, Damiano; West, Bruce J.

    2009-06-01

    Time series of human gait stride intervals exhibit fractal and multifractal properties under several conditions. Records from subjects walking at normal, slow, and fast pace speed are analyzed to determine changes in the fractal scalings as a function of the stress condition of the system. Records from subjects with different age from children to elderly and patients suffering from neurodegenerative disease are analyzed to determine changes in the fractal scalings as a function of the physical maturation or degeneration of the system. A supercentral pattern generator model is presented to simulate the above two properties that are typically found in dynamical network performance: that is, how a dynamical network responds to stress and to evolution.

  14. Understanding calcium dynamics experiments and theory

    CERN Document Server

    Malchow, Dieter

    2003-01-01

    Intracellular Calcium is an important messenger in living cells. Calcium dynamics display complex temporal and spatial structures created by the concentration patterns which are characteristic for a nonlinear system operating far from thermodynamic equilibrium. Written as a set of tutorial reviews on both experimental facts and theoretical modelling, this volume is intended as an introduction and modern reference in the field for graduate students and researchers in biophysics, biochemistry and applied mathematics.

  15. Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

    2018-01-01

    In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

  16. Changes in Population Dynamics in Mutualistic versus Pathogenic Viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn J. Roossinck

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  17. Changes in population dynamics in mutualistic versus pathogenic viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roossinck, Marilyn J

    2011-01-01

    Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis) have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  18. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

    2008-01-01

    , the effects of climate change may potentially extend through any of these interactions. In this chapter, we focus on the extent to which evolutionarily distinct species at different trophic levels respond to similar changes in climate. By using a broad spectrum of statistically and ecologically founded...... and migrating species, respectively. The dynamics of all four resident species were significantly affected by variations in snow-cover and explained up to 65% of their inter-annual dynamics. The three predators differed in their numerical response to changes in prey densities. Whereas the population dynamics...... a bewildering number of interactions. For example, individuals within a population may compete for space and other resources and, being embedded in an ecosystem, individuals in any population may also interact with individuals of competing species as well as those from adjacent trophic levels. In principal...

  19. Dynamics of genome rearrangement in bacterial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron E Darling

    2008-07-01

    represent the first characterization of genome arrangement evolution in a bacterial population evolving outside laboratory conditions. Insight into the process of genomic rearrangement may further the understanding of pathogen population dynamics and selection on the architecture of circular bacterial chromosomes.

  20. Rates, intrinsic linkages, and multistate population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoen, Robert

    2017-01-01

    Demographic analyses of multistate populations are commonplace, as are situations where population stocks are known but population flows are not. Still, demographic models for multistate populations with changing rates remain at an early stage of development, limiting dynamic analyses and analytical projections. Here, a new approach, the Intrinsic Linkage-Rate Ratio (IL-RR) model, is presented and explored. The key IL parameter, w , is a simple weight for projecting populations. Using the ultimate state composition implied by the prevailing rates, the IL-RR model provides new relationships that connect multistate populations over time and allow analytical population projections. Parameter w reflects population metabolism and scales the level of the transfer rates. Compositional change is driven by the sequence of implicit stable population compositions. The IL-RR approach also provides a new method for estimating transfer rates within an interval from population numbers at the beginning and end of the interval. The new relationships developed advance the ability of demographers to model multistate populations with changing rates and to relate population stocks and flows.

  1. Conspecific brood parasitism and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Valpine, Perry; Eadie, John M

    2008-10-01

    Conspecific brood parasitism (CBP), defined as parasitic laying of eggs in a conspecific nest without providing parental care, occurs in insects, fishes, amphibians, and many birds. Numerous factors have been proposed to influence the evolution of CBP, including nest site limitation; effects of brood size, laying order, or parasitic status on offspring survival; randomness of parasitic egg distribution; adult life-history trade-offs; and variation in parental female quality or risk of nest predation. However, few theoretical studies consider multiple possible types of parasitism or the interplay between evolution of parasitism and population dynamics. We review existing theory of CBP and develop a synthetic modeling approach to ask how best-of-a-bad job parasitism, separate-strategies parasitism (in which females either nest or parasitize), and joint-strategies parasitism (in which females can both nest and parasitize) differ in their evolutionary conditions and impacts on population dynamics using an adaptive dynamics framework including multivariate traits. CBP can either stabilize or destabilize population dynamics in different scenarios, and the role of comparable parameters on evolutionarily stable strategy parasitism rate, equilibrium population size, and population stability can differ for the different modes of parasitism.

  2. Understanding the Implications of Neural Population Activity on Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briguglio, John

    Learning how neural activity in the brain leads to the behavior we exhibit is one of the fundamental questions in Neuroscience. In this dissertation, several lines of work are presented to that use principles of neural coding to understand behavior. In one line of work, we formulate the efficient coding hypothesis in a non-traditional manner in order to test human perceptual sensitivity to complex visual textures. We find a striking agreement between how variable a particular texture signal is and how sensitive humans are to its presence. This reveals that the efficient coding hypothesis is still a guiding principle for neural organization beyond the sensory periphery, and that the nature of cortical constraints differs from the peripheral counterpart. In another line of work, we relate frequency discrimination acuity to neural responses from auditory cortex in mice. It has been previously observed that optogenetic manipulation of auditory cortex, in addition to changing neural responses, evokes changes in behavioral frequency discrimination. We are able to account for changes in frequency discrimination acuity on an individual basis by examining the Fisher information from the neural population with and without optogenetic manipulation. In the third line of work, we address the question of what a neural population should encode given that its inputs are responses from another group of neurons. Drawing inspiration from techniques in machine learning, we train Deep Belief Networks on fake retinal data and show the emergence of Garbor-like filters, reminiscent of responses in primary visual cortex. In the last line of work, we model the state of a cortical excitatory-inhibitory network during complex adaptive stimuli. Using a rate model with Wilson-Cowan dynamics, we demonstrate that simple non-linearities in the signal transferred from inhibitory to excitatory neurons can account for real neural recordings taken from auditory cortex. This work establishes and tests

  3. Understanding Arsenic Dynamics in Agronomic Systems to ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This review is on arsenic in agronomic systems, and covers processes that influence the entry of arsenic into the human food supply. The scope is from sources of arsenic (natural and anthropogenic) in soils, biogeochemical and rhizosphere processes that control arsenic speciation and availability, through to mechanisms of uptake by crop plants and potential mitigation strategies. This review makes a case for taking steps to prevent or limit crop uptake of arsenic, wherever possible, and to work toward a long-term solution to the presence of arsenic in agronomic systems. The past two decades have seen important advances in our understanding of how biogeochemical and physiological processes influence human exposure to soil arsenic, and thus must now prompt an informed reconsideration and unification of regulations to protect the quality of agricultural and residential soils. Consumption of staple foods such as rice, beverages such as apple juice, or vegetables grown in historically arsenic-contaminated soils is now recognized as a tangible route of arsenic exposure that, in many cases, is more significant than exposure from drinking water. Understanding the sources of arsenic to crop plants and the factors that influence them is key to reducing exposure now and preventing exposure in future. In addition to the abundant natural sources of arsenic, there are a large number of industrial and agricultural sources of arsenic to the soil; from mining wastes, coal fly

  4. Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallah-Fini, Saeideh; Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

    2013-01-01

    Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model.

  5. Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

    2014-01-01

    Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model. PMID:25620842

  6. Generational Spreading Speed and the Dynamics of Population Range Expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Andrew W; Neubert, Michael G; Krkošek, Martin; Lewis, Mark A

    2015-09-01

    Some of the most fundamental quantities in population ecology describe the growth and spread of populations. Population dynamics are often characterized by the annual rate of increase, λ, or the generational rate of increase, R0. Analyses involving R0 have deepened our understanding of disease dynamics and life-history complexities beyond that afforded by analysis of annual growth alone. While range expansion is quantified by the annual spreading speed, a spatial analog of λ, an R0-like expression for the rate of spread is missing. Using integrodifference models, we derive the appropriate generational spreading speed for populations with complex (stage-structured) life histories. The resulting measure, relevant to locations near the expanding edge of a (re)colonizing population, incorporates both local population growth and explicit spatial dispersal rather than solely growth across a population, as is the case for R0. The calculations for generational spreading speed are often simpler than those for annual spreading speed, and analytic or partial analytic solutions can yield insight into the processes that facilitate or slow a population's spatial spread. We analyze the spatial dynamics of green crabs, sea otters, and teasel as examples to demonstrate the flexibility of our methods and the intuitive insights that they afford.

  7. Population dynamics and distribution of hydrocarbon utilizing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Laboratory studies were carried out to assess the bacterial population dynamics and distribution in composite soil samples collected from five (5) different automobile workshops at various locations (Ikpa road, Nwaniba road, Udi street, Idakokpo lane and Mechanic village) within Uyo metropolis. The hydrocarbon utilizing ...

  8. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF PSEUDO-NITZSCHIA SPECIES ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    nb

    ABSTRACT. The genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a chain-forming diatom comprising about 30 species some of which are known to produce domoic acid (DA) that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). The current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia in the near shore waters of Dar es ...

  9. Population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a chain-forming diatom comprising about 30 species some of which are known to produce domoic acid (DA) that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). The current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia in the near shore waters of Dar es Salaam. Samples ...

  10. Population dynamics of Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effects of three maize varieties and two storage seasons on the population dynamics of Prostephanus truncates (Horn) and Sitophilus zeamais Motschulsky were observed in the traditional `Ewe' barn in the field. Two local varieties, Dzolokpuita and Abutia and an improved variety, Abeleehi, were stored with the husk on ...

  11. POPULATION DYNAMICS AND SPAWNING OF THE FLATFISH ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The population dynamics of flatfish Solea bleekeri and Pseudorhombus arsius within the intertidal area of Inhaca Island, Moçambique, was investigated using bottom trawl data collected during summer (December 1996–March 1997) and winter (June 1997–August 1997). The endemic S. bleekeri is a small, relatively ...

  12. The population dynamics of the Prorocentraceae, Gonyaulacaceae ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An investigation into the dynamics of Protozoan populations in Ologe lagoon was carried out for a period of 24 months. It covered identification, diversity and elucidating the influence of some physical and chemical parameters on temporal abundance and spatial distribution of the Protozoa. Four villages around the lagoon ...

  13. Revolution and Evolution: Understanding Dynamism in Military Affairs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Andrews, Timothy D

    1998-01-01

    .... Different dynamics imply different optimal responses to the challenge of change. To the extent that the term Revolution in Military Affairs can be systematically disaggregated, a better understanding of its resulting components may be possible...

  14. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  15. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John M; Bieri, Joanna A; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia E; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady J; Flockhart, D T Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Erickson, Richard A; Norris, D Ryan

    2018-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  16. Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M.; Wang, Long

    2014-01-01

    On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics. PMID:24598208

  17. A general method for modeling population dynamics and its applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shestopaloff, Yuri K

    2013-12-01

    Studying populations, be it a microbe colony or mankind, is important for understanding how complex systems evolve and exist. Such knowledge also often provides insights into evolution, history and different aspects of human life. By and large, populations' prosperity and decline is about transformation of certain resources into quantity and other characteristics of populations through growth, replication, expansion and acquisition of resources. We introduce a general model of population change, applicable to different types of populations, which interconnects numerous factors influencing population dynamics, such as nutrient influx and nutrient consumption, reproduction period, reproduction rate, etc. It is also possible to take into account specific growth features of individual organisms. We considered two recently discovered distinct growth scenarios: first, when organisms do not change their grown mass regardless of nutrients availability, and the second when organisms can reduce their grown mass by several times in a nutritionally poor environment. We found that nutrient supply and reproduction period are two major factors influencing the shape of population growth curves. There is also a difference in population dynamics between these two groups. Organisms belonging to the second group are significantly more adaptive to reduction of nutrients and far more resistant to extinction. Also, such organisms have substantially more frequent and lesser in amplitude fluctuations of population quantity for the same periodic nutrient supply (compared to the first group). Proposed model allows adequately describing virtually any possible growth scenario, including complex ones with periodic and irregular nutrient supply and other changing parameters, which present approaches cannot do.

  18. Population dynamics with symmetric and asymmetric harvesting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ali

    2009-10-01

    Here $\\lambda, a, b, c$ and $L$ are positive constants with $0population dynamics with logistic type growth and constant yield harvesting. Here $u$ is the population density, $\\frac{1}{\\lambda}$ is the diffusion coefficient and $c$ is the harvesting effort. In particular, model A corresponds to a symmetric harvesting case and model B to an asymmetric harvesting case. Our objective is to study the existence of positive solutions and also discuss the effects of harvesting. We will develop appropriate quadrature methods via which we will establish our results.

  19. High school students' understanding and problem solving in population genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soderberg, Patti D.

    This study is an investigation of student understanding of population genetics and how students developed, used and revised conceptual models to solve problems. The students in this study participated in three rounds of problem solving. The first round involved the use of a population genetics model to predict the number of carriers in a population. The second round required them to revise their model of simple dominance population genetics to make inferences about populations containing three phenotype variations. The third round of problem solving required the students to revise their model of population genetics to explain anomalous data where the proportions of males and females with a trait varied significantly. As the students solved problems, they were involved in basic scientific processes as they observed population phenomena, constructed explanatory models to explain the data they observed, and attempted to persuade their peers as to the adequacy of their models. In this study, the students produced new knowledge about the genetics of a trait in a population through the revision and use of explanatory population genetics models using reasoning that was similar to what scientists do. The students learned, used and revised a model of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium to generate and test hypotheses about the genetics of phenotypes given only population data. Students were also interviewed prior to and following instruction. This study suggests that a commonly held intuitive belief about the predominance of a dominant variation in populations is resistant to change, despite instruction and interferes with a student's ability to understand Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and microevolution.

  20. Whitefly population dynamics in okra plantations

    OpenAIRE

    Leite,Germano Leão Demolin; Picanço,Marcelo; Jham,Gulab Newandram; Moreira,Márcio Dionízio

    2005-01-01

    The control of whitefly Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) biotype B (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) on okra (Abelmoschus esculentus L.) consists primarily in the use of insecticides, due to the lack of information on other mortality factors. The objective of this study was to evaluate the spatial and temporal population dynamics of the whitefly B. tabaci biotype B on two successive A. esculentus var. "Santa Cruz" plantations. Leaf chemical composition, leaf nitrogen and potassium contents, trichome density...

  1. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey A Hostetler

    Full Text Available Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008 study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1 for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s included 1.0 (0.52-1.60. Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  2. Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Jane M; Travis, Justin M J; Daunt, Francis; Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Dytham, Calvin

    2018-03-25

    Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life-history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco-evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within-individual and among-individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life-history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal-tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within-population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year-round residence, generating diverse forms of 'partial migration' spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year-round residence, and are commonplace in nature. Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio-temporal population dynamics, we define a 'partially migratory meta-population' system as a spatially structured set of locations that can

  3. Understanding Sleep Disorders in a College Student Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Dallas R.

    2003-01-01

    College students' sleep habits are changing dramatically, and related sleep problems are increasing. Reviews the current literature on sleep problems, focusing on the college student population. The unique challenges of college settings are discussed as they apply to understanding sleep problems, and suggestions are made for professionals who work…

  4. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  5. Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1981-01-01

    A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

  6. Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pananos, A Demetri; Bury, Thomas M; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P; Nyhan, Brendan; Salathé, Marcel; Bauch, Chris T

    2017-12-26

    Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  7. Statistical dynamics of regional populations and economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Hao, Rui; Wang, Peng

    Quantitative analysis of human behavior and social development is becoming a hot spot of some interdisciplinary studies. A statistical analysis on the population and GDP of 150 cities in China from 1990 to 2013 is conducted. The result indicates the cumulative probability distribution of the populations and that of the GDPs obeying the shifted power law, respectively. In order to understand these characteristics, a generalized Langevin equation describing variation of population is proposed, which is based on the correlations between population and GDP as well as the random fluctuations of the related factors. The equation is transformed into the Fokker-Plank equation to express the evolution of population distribution. The general solution demonstrates a transition of the distribution from the normal Gaussian distribution to a shifted power law, which suggests a critical point of time at which the transition takes place. The shifted power law distribution in the supercritical situation is qualitatively in accordance with the practical result. The distribution of the GDPs is derived from the well-known Cobb-Douglas production function. The result presents a change, in supercritical situation, from a shifted power law to the Gaussian distribution. This is a surprising result-the regional GDP distribution of our world will be the Gaussian distribution one day in the future. The discussions based on the changing trend of economic growth suggest it will be true. Therefore, these theoretical attempts may draw a historical picture of our society in the aspects of population and economy.

  8. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

    2010-07-27

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

  9. Monitoring microbial population dynamics at low densities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julou, Thomas; Desprat, Nicolas; Bensimon, David; Croquette, Vincent

    2012-07-01

    We propose a new and simple method for the measurement of microbial concentrations in highly diluted cultures. This method is based on an analysis of the intensity fluctuations of light scattered by microbial cells under laser illumination. Two possible measurement strategies are identified and compared using simulations and measurements of the concentration of gold nanoparticles. Based on this comparison, we show that the concentration of Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae cultures can be easily measured in situ across a concentration range that spans five orders of magnitude. The lowest measurable concentration is three orders of magnitude (1000×) smaller than in current optical density measurements. We show further that this method can also be used to measure the concentration of fluorescent microbial cells. In practice, this new method is well suited to monitor the dynamics of population growth at early colonization of a liquid culture medium. The dynamic data thus obtained are particularly relevant for microbial ecology studies.

  10. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  11. Effects of temporal variation in temperature and density dependence on insect population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Understanding effects of environmental variation on insect populations is important in light of predictions about increasing future climatic variability. In order to understand the effects of changing environmental variation on population dynamics and life history evolution in insects one would need...

  12. Understanding conflict’s dynamics in participatory natural resources management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Idrissou, L.; Aarts, M.N.C.; Leeuwis, C.; Paassen, van A.

    2018-01-01

    This paper investigated conflicts in participatory protected areas management in Benin to better understand their dynamics. This review paper is based on four articles written from three case-studies of conflicts that emerged and evolved in participatory protected areas management in Benin and a

  13. Understanding Learner Agency as a Complex Dynamic System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    This paper attempts to contribute to a fuller understanding of the nature of language learner agency by considering it as a complex dynamic system. The purpose of the study was to explore detailed situated data to examine to what extent it is feasible to view learner agency through the lens of complexity theory. Data were generated through a…

  14. Learning and Understanding System Stability Using Illustrative Dynamic Texture Examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huaping; Xiao, Wei; Zhao, Hongyan; Sun, Fuchun

    2014-01-01

    System stability is a basic concept in courses on dynamic system analysis and control for undergraduate students with computer science backgrounds. Typically, this was taught using a simple simulation example of an inverted pendulum. Unfortunately, many difficult issues arise in the learning and understanding of the concepts of stability,…

  15. Understanding the dynamics of water availability and use in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, R.P.; Conrad, S.H.; Jeppesen, D.M.; Engi, E.

    1997-07-01

    This report presents the preliminary results of an analysis of China`s water resources, part of an effort undertaken by the National Intelligence Council Medea scientists to improve the understanding of future food production and consumption in the People`s Republic of China. A dynamic water model was developed to simulate the hydrological budgetary processes in five river drainage basins located in northeastern, central, and southern China: the Chang Jiang (Yangtse River), Huanghe (Yellow River), Haihe, Huaihe, and Liaohe. The model was designed to assess the effects of changes in urban, industrial, and agricultural water use requirements on the availability of water in each basin and to develop estimates of the water surpluses and/or deficits in China through the year 2025. The model imposes a sustainable yield constraint, that is, groundwater extraction is not allowed to exceed the sustainable yield; if the available water does not meet the total water use requirements, a deficit results. An agronomic model was also developed to generate projections of the water required to service China`s agricultural sector and compare China`s projected grain production with projected grain consumption requirements to estimate any grain surplus and/or deficit. In future refinements, the agronomic model will interface directly with the water model to provide for the exchange of information on projected water use requirements and available water. The preliminary results indicate that the Chang Jiang basin will have a substantial surplus of water through 2025 and that the Haihe basin is in an ongoing situation. The agricultural water use requirements based on grain production indicate that an agricultural water deficit in the Haihe basin begins before the onset of the modeling period (1980) and steadily worsens through 2025. This assumption is confirmed by reports that groundwater mining is already under way in the most intensely cultivated and populated areas of northern China.

  16. Understanding population growth in the peri-urban region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, T

    1999-01-01

    This article advocates a new approach to understanding periurban population growth. A conceptual model is developed that identifies four distinct growth processes: suburbanization, counterurbanization, population retention, and centripetal migration. Each of these growth processes acts differently on particular population subgroups. The differences are reflected in variations in the spatial manifestation of periurban growth within Australia. Suburbanization process is differentiated from counterurbanization by employing three indicators of suburbanization. The first indicator includes the broad situation of the periurban destination and is defined as in-migration from the metropolitan area to adjacent, accessible periurban locations. The second indicator lies in the assessment of the commuting and social linkages with the metropolitan maintained by migrants. The third indicator is the nature of the migrants' residential destination site. Counterurbanization is largely seen to be a shift in population down the urban hierarchy to smaller centers and localities beyond the existing metropolitan boundaries. Furthermore, the article discusses the four indicators that distinguish counterurbanization from suburbanization. Another important process contributing to periurban growth is population retention. Two key indicators that lie in the measurement of increased period of residence and reduced rates of out-migration overtime characterize this process.

  17. Understanding dynamics using sensitivity analysis: caveat and solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Parametric sensitivity analysis (PSA) has become one of the most commonly used tools in computational systems biology, in which the sensitivity coefficients are used to study the parametric dependence of biological models. As many of these models describe dynamical behaviour of biological systems, the PSA has subsequently been used to elucidate important cellular processes that regulate this dynamics. However, in this paper, we show that the PSA coefficients are not suitable in inferring the mechanisms by which dynamical behaviour arises and in fact it can even lead to incorrect conclusions. Results A careful interpretation of parametric perturbations used in the PSA is presented here to explain the issue of using this analysis in inferring dynamics. In short, the PSA coefficients quantify the integrated change in the system behaviour due to persistent parametric perturbations, and thus the dynamical information of when a parameter perturbation matters is lost. To get around this issue, we present a new sensitivity analysis based on impulse perturbations on system parameters, which is named impulse parametric sensitivity analysis (iPSA). The inability of PSA and the efficacy of iPSA in revealing mechanistic information of a dynamical system are illustrated using two examples involving switch activation. Conclusions The interpretation of the PSA coefficients of dynamical systems should take into account the persistent nature of parametric perturbations involved in the derivation of this analysis. The application of PSA to identify the controlling mechanism of dynamical behaviour can be misleading. By using impulse perturbations, introduced at different times, the iPSA provides the necessary information to understand how dynamics is achieved, i.e. which parameters are essential and when they become important. PMID:21406095

  18. How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trine Dalkvist

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis, we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. SIGNIFICANCE: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results

  19. Molecular Approaches to Understanding C & N Dynamics in MArine Sediments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arturo Massol; James Tiedje; Jizhong Zhou; Allan Devol

    2007-05-16

    Continental margin sediments constitute only about 10% of the total sediment surface area in the world’s oceans, nevertheless they are the dominant sites of nitrogen (N) cycling. Recent studies suggest that the oceanic nitrogen budget is unbalanced, primarily due to a higher nitrogen removal rate in contrast to the fixation rate, and it has been suggested that denitrification activity contributes significantly to this imbalance. Although denitrification in marine environments has been studied intensively at the process level, little is known about the species abundance, composition, distribution, and functional differences of the denitrifying population. Understanding the diversity of microbial populations in marine environments, their responses to various environmental factors such as NO3-, and how this impact the rate of denitrification is critical to predict global N dynamics. Environmental Microbiology has the prompt to study the influence of each microbial population on a biogeochemical process within a given ecosystem. Culture-dependent and –independent techniques using nucleic acid probes can access the identity and activity of cultured and uncultured microorganisms. Nucleic acid probes can target distintict genes which set phylogenetic relationships, such as rDNA 16S, DNA gyrase (gyrB) and RNA polymerase sigma 70 factor (rpoD). In the other hand, the genetic capabilities and their expression could be tracked using probes that target several functional genes, such as nirS, nirK, nosZ, and nifH, which are genes involved in denitrification. Selective detection of cells actively expressing functional genes within a community using In Situ Reverse Transcription-PCR (ISRT-PCR) could become a powerful culture-independent technique in microbial ecology. Here we describe an approach to study the expression of nirS genes in denitrifying bacteria. Pure cultures of Pseudomonas stutzeri and Paracoccus denitrificans, as well as co-cultures with non

  20. Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

    2017-02-01

    In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

  1. Dynamics of inhomogeneous populations and global demography models

    OpenAIRE

    Karev, Georgy P.

    2005-01-01

    The dynamic theory of inhomogeneous populations developed during the last decade predicts several essential new dynamic regimes applicable even to the well-known, simple population models. We show that, in an inhomogeneous population with a distributed reproduction coefficient, the entire initial distribution of the coefficient should be used to investigate real population dynamics. In the general case, neither the average rate of growth nor the variance or any finite number of moments of the...

  2. Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Matthew; Minobe, Shoshiro; Barreiro, Marcelo; Bordoni, Simona; Kaspi, Yohai; Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira; Keenlyside, Noel; Manzini, Elisa; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Sutton, Rowan; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zolina, Olga

    2018-02-01

    Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.

  3. Toward understanding dynamic annealing processes in irradiated ceramics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Myers, Michael Thomas [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2013-05-01

    High energy particle irradiation inevitably generates defects in solids. The ballistic formation and thermalization of the defect creation process occur rapidly, and are believed to be reasonably well understood. However, knowledge of the evolution of defects after damage cascade thermalization, referred to as dynamic annealing, is quite limited. Unraveling the mechanisms associated with dynamic annealing is crucial since such processes play an important role in the formation of stable postirradiation disorder in ion-beam-processing of semiconductors, and determines the “radiation tolerance” of many nuclear materials. The purpose of this dissertation is to further our understanding of the processes involved in dynamic annealing. In order to achieve this, two main tasks are undertaken.

  4. Understanding the dynamics of labor shares and inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Karl Whelan; Martina Lawless

    2007-01-01

    Calvo-style models of nominal rigidities currently provide the dominant paradigm for understanding the linkages between wage and price dynamics. Recent empirical implementations stress the idea that these models link inflation to the behavior of the labor share of income. Gali, Gertler, and Lopez-Salido (2001) argue that the model explains the combination of declining inflation and labor shares in euro area. In this paper, we show that with realistic parameters, the canonical Calvo-style mode...

  5. Allee effects on population dynamics in continuous (overlapping) case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.; Celik, C.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the stability analysis of equilibrium points of a continuous population dynamics with delay under the Allee effect which occurs at low population density. The mathematical results and numerical simulations show the stabilizing role of the Allee effects on the stability of the equilibrium point of this population dynamics.

  6. Population dynamics of species-rich ecosystems: the mixture of matrix population models approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortier, Frédéric; Rossi, Vivien; Guillot, Gilles

    2013-01-01

    Matrix population models are widely used to predict population dynamics, but when applied to species-rich ecosystems with many rare species, the small population sample sizes hinder a good fit of species-specific models. This issue can be overcome by assigning species to groups to increase the size...... species with similar population dynamics....

  7. Survival and Population Dynamics of the Marabou Stork in an Isolated Population, Swaziland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monadjem, Ara; Kane, Adam; Botha, Andre; Dalton, Desire; Kotze, Antoinette

    2012-01-01

    Investigating the ecology of long lived birds is particularly challenging owing to the time scales involved. Here an analysis is presented of a long term study of the survival and population dynamics of the marabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), a wide ranging scavenging bird from Sub-Saharan Africa. Using resightings data of tagged nestlings and free flying birds we show that the stork population can be divided into three general life stages with unique survival probabilities and fecundities. Fecundity of the storks is inversely related to rainfall during their breeding season. Corroborative evidence for a metapopulation structure is discussed highlighting the impact of the Swaziland birds on the ecology of the species in the broader region. The importance of tag loss or illegibility over time is highlighted. Clearly, any attempt at conserving a species will require a detailed understanding of its population structure, of the sort examined here. PMID:23029517

  8. Chalk coast dynamics: Implications for understanding rock coast evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moses, Cherith; Robinson, David

    2011-12-01

    Rock cliffs and shore platforms are linked components of the world's coastal zone. Understanding of the dynamics of their relationships has been hindered by the often imperceptible changes that occur within human time scales. The Cretaceous Chalk coasts of northwest Europe, and particularly those of southeast England, are among the most dynamic, and most intensively studied, cliffed rock coasts in the world. Perceptible changes to both cliffs and platforms have been measured on monthly, seasonal, annual and decadal time scales. Through a review of previously published data and the addition of data not previously published, average cliff retreat rates are calculated as 0.49 ± 0.38 m y - 1 and platform erosion rates 3.999 ± 3.208 mm y - 1 . This paper highlights some of the interactions over time and space between process and measurement that continue to limit our understanding of the dynamics of rock coasts; in particular the link between rates of cliff retreat and platform erosion. It concludes by identifying fruitful areas for future research.

  9. Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2018-01-01

    In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

  10. Effects of rainfall on Culex mosquito population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez, L D; Sibona, G J; Diaz, L A; Contigiani, M S; Condat, C A

    2017-05-21

    The dynamics of a mosquito population depends heavily on climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. Since climate change models predict that global warming will impact on the frequency and intensity of rainfall, it is important to understand how these variables affect the mosquito populations. We present a model of the dynamics of a Culex quinquefasciatus mosquito population that incorporates the effect of rainfall and use it to study the influence of the number of rainy days and the mean monthly precipitation on the maximum yearly abundance of mosquitoes M max . Additionally, using a fracturing process, we investigate the influence of the variability in daily rainfall on M max . We find that, given a constant value of monthly precipitation, there is an optimum number of rainy days for which M max is a maximum. On the other hand, we show that increasing daily rainfall variability reduces the dependence of M max on the number of rainy days, leading also to a higher abundance of mosquitoes for the case of low mean monthly precipitation. Finally, we explore the effect of the rainfall in the months preceding the wettest season, and we obtain that a regimen with high precipitations throughout the year and a higher variability tends to advance slightly the time at which the peak mosquito abundance occurs, but could significantly change the total mosquito abundance in a year. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Neural Population Dynamics Underlying Motor Learning Transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyas, Saurabh; Even-Chen, Nir; Stavisky, Sergey D; Ryu, Stephen I; Nuyujukian, Paul; Shenoy, Krishna V

    2018-03-07

    Covert motor learning can sometimes transfer to overt behavior. We investigated the neural mechanism underlying transfer by constructing a two-context paradigm. Subjects performed cursor movements either overtly using arm movements, or covertly via a brain-machine interface that moves the cursor based on motor cortical activity (in lieu of arm movement). These tasks helped evaluate whether and how cortical changes resulting from "covert rehearsal" affect overt performance. We found that covert learning indeed transfers to overt performance and is accompanied by systematic population-level changes in motor preparatory activity. Current models of motor cortical function ascribe motor preparation to achieving initial conditions favorable for subsequent movement-period neural dynamics. We found that covert and overt contexts share these initial conditions, and covert rehearsal manipulates them in a manner that persists across context changes, thus facilitating overt motor learning. This transfer learning mechanism might provide new insights into other covert processes like mental rehearsal. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Dynamics of a physiologically structured population in a time-varying environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heilmann, Irene Louise Torpe; Starke, Jens; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2016-01-01

    Physiologically structured population models have become a valuable tool to model the dynamics of populations. In a stationary environment such models can exhibit equilibrium solutions as well as periodic solutions. However, for many organisms the environment is not stationary, but varies more...... or less regularly. In order to understand the interaction between an external environmental forcing and the internal dynamics in a population, we examine the response of a physiologically structured population model to a periodic variation in the food resource. We explore the addition of forcing in two...... cases: (A) where the population dynamics is in equilibrium in a stationary environment, and (B) where the population dynamics exhibits a periodic solution in a stationary environment. When forcing is applied in case A, the solutions are mainly periodic. In case B the forcing signal interacts...

  13. Integrating the social sciences to understand human-water dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, G.; Kuil, L., Jr.

    2017-12-01

    Many interesting and exciting socio-hydrological models have been developed in recent years. Such models often aim to capture the dynamic interplay between people and water for a variety of hydrological settings. As such, peoples' behaviours and decisions are brought into the models as drivers of and/or respondents to the hydrological system. To develop and run such models over a sufficiently long time duration to observe how the water-human system evolves the human component is often simplified according to one or two key behaviours, characteristics or decisions (e.g. a decision to move away from a drought or flood area; a decision to pump groundwater, or a decision to plant a less water demanding crop). To simplify the social component, socio-hydrological modellers often pull knowledge and understanding from existing social science theories. This requires them to negotiate complex territory, where social theories may be underdeveloped, contested, dynamically evolving, or case specific and difficult to generalise or upscale. A key question is therefore, how can this process be supported so that the resulting socio-hydrological models adequately describe the system and lead to meaningful understanding of how and why it behaves as it does? Collaborative interdisciplinary research teams that bring together social and natural scientists are likely to be critical. Joint development of the model framework requires specific attention to clarification to expose all underlying assumptions, constructive discussion and negotiation to reach agreement on the modelled system and its boundaries. Mutual benefits to social scientists can be highlighted, i.e. socio-hydrological work can provide insights for further exploring and testing social theories. Collaborative work will also help ensure underlying social theory is made explicit, and may identify ways to include and compare multiple theories. As socio-hydrology progresses towards supporting policy development, approaches that

  14. Effects of demographic structure on key properties of stochastic density-independent population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar

    2012-12-01

    The development of stochastic demography has largely been based on age structured populations, although other types of demographic structure, especially permanent and dynamic heterogeneity, are likely common in natural populations. The combination of stochasticity and demographic structure is a challenge for analyses of population dynamics and extinction risk, because the population structure will fluctuate around the stable structure and the population size shows transient fluctuations. However, by using a diffusion approximation for the total reproductive value, density-independent dynamics of structured populations can be described with only three population parameters: the expected population growth rate, the environmental variance and the demographic variance. These parameters depend on population structure via the state-specific vital rates and transition rates. Once they are found, the diffusion approximation represents a substantial reduction in model complexity. Here, we review and compare the key population parameters across a wide range of demographic structure, from the case of no structure to the most general case of dynamic heterogeneity, and for both discrete and continuous types. We focus on the demographic variance, but also show how environmental stochasticity can be included. This study brings together results from recent models, each considering a specific type of population structure, and places them in a general framework for structured populations. Comparison across different types of demographic structure reveals that the reproductive value is an essential concept for understanding how population structure affects stochastic dynamics and extinction risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Understanding the Dynamics of EngagingIinteraction in Public Spaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalsgaard, Peter; Dindler, Christian; Halskov, Kim

    We present an analysis of three interactive installations in public spaces, in terms of their support of engagement as an evolving process. In particular, we focus on how engagement unfolds as a dynamic process that may be understood in terms of evolving relations between cultural, physical......, content-related, and social elements of interactive environments. These elements are explored through the literature on engagement with interaction design, and it is argued that, although valuable contributions have been made towards understanding engagement with interactive environments, the ways...

  16. Understanding ion association states and molecular dynamics using infrared spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masser, Hanqing

    A molecular level understanding of the ion transport mechanism within polymer electrolytes is crucial to the further development for advanced energy storage applications. This can be achieved by the identification and quantitative measurement of different ion species in the system and further relating them to the ion conductivity. In the first part of this thesis, research is presented towards understanding the ion association states (free ions, ion pairs and ion aggregates) in ionomer systems, and the correlation of ion association states, ion conduction, polymer dynamics, and morphology. Ion conductivity in ionomers can be improved by lowering glass transition temperature, increasing polymer ion solvation ability, and adjusting ionomer structural variables such as ion content, cation type and side chain structure. These effects are studied in three ionomer systems respectively, using a combination of characterization methods. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) identifies and quantifies the ion association states. Dielectric Spectroscopy (DRS) characterizes ion conductivity and polymer and ion dynamics. X-ray scattering reveals changes in morphology. The influence of a cation solvating plasticizer on a polyester ionomer is systematically investigated with respect to ion association states, ion and polymer dynamics and morphology. A decrease in the number ratio of ion aggregates with increased plasticizer content and a slight increase at elevated temperature are observed in FTIR. Similar results are also detected by X-ray scattering. As determined from dielectric spectroscopy, ion conductivity increases with plasticizer content, in accordance with the decrease in glass transition temperature. Research on copolymer of poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO) and poly(tetramethylene oxide) (PTMO) based ionomers further develops an understanding of the trade-off between ion solvation and segmental dynamics. Upon the incorporation of PTMO, the majority of the PTMO

  17. Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

    2018-02-01

    Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex

  18. Understanding dynamic friction through spontaneously evolving laboratory earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubino, V; Rosakis, A J; Lapusta, N

    2017-06-29

    Friction plays a key role in how ruptures unzip faults in the Earth's crust and release waves that cause destructive shaking. Yet dynamic friction evolution is one of the biggest uncertainties in earthquake science. Here we report on novel measurements of evolving local friction during spontaneously developing mini-earthquakes in the laboratory, enabled by our ultrahigh speed full-field imaging technique. The technique captures the evolution of displacements, velocities and stresses of dynamic ruptures, whose rupture speed range from sub-Rayleigh to supershear. The observed friction has complex evolution, featuring initial velocity strengthening followed by substantial velocity weakening. Our measurements are consistent with rate-and-state friction formulations supplemented with flash heating but not with widely used slip-weakening friction laws. This study develops a new approach for measuring local evolution of dynamic friction and has important implications for understanding earthquake hazard since laws governing frictional resistance of faults are vital ingredients in physically-based predictive models of the earthquake source.

  19. Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

    2017-07-01

    have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

  20. Understanding the population genetics of Plasmodium vivax is essential for malaria control and elimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnott Alicia

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Traditionally, infection with Plasmodium vivax was thought to be benign and self-limiting, however, recent evidence has demonstrated that infection with P. vivax can also result in severe illness and death. Research into P. vivax has been relatively neglected and much remains unknown regarding the biology, pathogenesis and epidemiology of this parasite. One of the fundamental factors governing transmission and immunity is parasite diversity. An understanding of parasite population genetic structure is necessary to understand the epidemiology, diversity, distribution and dynamics of natural P. vivax populations. In addition, studying the population structure of genes under immune selection also enables investigation of the dynamic interplay between transmission and immunity, which is crucial for vaccine development. A lack of knowledge regarding the transmission and spread of P. vivax has been particularly highlighted in areas where malaria control and elimination programmes have made progress in reducing the burden of Plasmodium falciparum, yet P. vivax remains as a substantial obstacle. With malaria elimination back on the global agenda, mapping of global and local P. vivax population structure is essential prior to establishing goals for elimination and the roll-out of interventions. A detailed knowledge of the spatial distribution, transmission and clinical burden of P. vivax is required to act as a benchmark against which control targets can be set and measured. This paper presents an overview of what is known and what is yet to be fully understood regarding P. vivax population genetics, as well as the importance and application of P. vivax population genetics studies.

  1. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  2. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  3. Understanding catchment dynamics through a Space-Society-Water trialectic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, Catherine; Jewitt, Graham; Risko, Susan; Hay, Ducan; Stuart-Hill, Sabine; Browne, Michelle

    2017-04-01

    Can healthy catchments be utilized to secure water for the benefit of society? This is a complex question as it requires an understanding of the connections and relations between biophysical, social, political, economic and governance dimensions over space and time in the catchment and must interrogate whether there is 'value' in investing in the catchment natural or ecological infrastructure (EI), how this should be done, where the most valuable EI is located, and whether an investment in EI will generate co-benefits socially, environmentally and economically. Here, we adopt a social ecological relations rather than systems approach to explore these interactions through development of a space-society-water trialectic. Trialectic thinking is challenging as it requires new epistemologies and it challenges conventional modes of thought. It is not ordered or fixed, but rather is constantly evolving, revealing the dynamic relations between the elements under exploration. The construction of knowledge, through detailed scientific research and social learning, which contributes to the understanding and achievement of sustainable water supply, water related resilient economic growth, greater social equity and justice in relation to water and the reduction of environmental risk is illustrated through research in the uMngeni Catchment, South Africa. Using four case studies as a basis, we construct the catchment level society-water-space trialectic as a way of connecting, assembling and comparing the understanding and knowledge that has been produced. The relations in the three elements of the trialectic are constructed through identifying, understanding and analysing the actors, discourses, knowledge, biophysical materialities, issues and spatial connections in the case studies. Together these relations, or multiple trajectories, are assembled to form the society-water-space trialectic, which illuminates the dominant relations in the catchment and hence reveal the leverage

  4. Understanding the HIV coreceptor switch from a dynamical perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamp Christel

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The entry of HIV into its target cells is facilitated by the prior binding to the cell surface molecule CD4 and a secondary coreceptor, mostly the chemokine receptors CCR5 or CXCR4. In early infection CCR5-using viruses (R5 viruses are mostly dominant while a receptor switch towards CXCR4 occurs in about 50% of the infected individuals (X4 viruses which is associated with a progression of the disease. There are many hypotheses regarding the underlying dynamics without yet a conclusive understanding. Results While it is difficult to isolate key factors in vivo we have developed a minimal in silico model based on the approaches of Nowak and May to investigate the conditions under which the receptor switch occurs. The model allows to investigate the evolution of viral strains within a probabilistic framework along the three stages of disease from primary and latent infection to the onset of AIDS with a a sudden increase in viral load which goes along with the impairment of the immune response. The model is specifically applied to investigate the evolution of the viral quasispecies in terms of R5 and X4 viruses which directly translates into the composition of viral load and consequently the question of the coreceptor switch. Conclusion The model can explain the coreceptor switch as a result of a dynamical change in the underlying environmental conditions in the host. The emergence of X4 strains does not necessarily result in the dominance of X4 viruses in viral load which is more likely to occur in the model after some time of chronic infection. A better understanding of the conditions leading to the coreceptor switch is especially of interest as CCR5 blockers have recently been licensed as drugs which suppress R5 viruses but do not seem to necessarily induce a coreceptor switch.

  5. Application of network methods for understanding evolutionary dynamics in discrete habitats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Gili; Fefferman, Nina H

    2017-06-01

    In populations occupying discrete habitat patches, gene flow between habitat patches may form an intricate population structure. In such structures, the evolutionary dynamics resulting from interaction of gene-flow patterns with other evolutionary forces may be exceedingly complex. Several models describing gene flow between discrete habitat patches have been presented in the population-genetics literature; however, these models have usually addressed relatively simple settings of habitable patches and have stopped short of providing general methodologies for addressing nontrivial gene-flow patterns. In the last decades, network theory - a branch of discrete mathematics concerned with complex interactions between discrete elements - has been applied to address several problems in population genetics by modelling gene flow between habitat patches using networks. Here, we present the idea and concepts of modelling complex gene flows in discrete habitats using networks. Our goal is to raise awareness to existing network theory applications in molecular ecology studies, as well as to outline the current and potential contribution of network methods to the understanding of evolutionary dynamics in discrete habitats. We review the main branches of network theory that have been, or that we believe potentially could be, applied to population genetics and molecular ecology research. We address applications to theoretical modelling and to empirical population-genetic studies, and we highlight future directions for extending the integration of network science with molecular ecology. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Review Of the interplay between population dynamics and

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Review Of the interplay between population dynamics and malaria transmission in Ethiopia. Wakgari Deressa, Ahmed Ali, Yemane Berhane. Abstract. Background: The rapid growth of human population in malaria endemic areas has become a threat leading to the resurgence of the disease. Population growth and ...

  7. Leisure Today: Population Dynamics--The Changing Face of America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Diana R., Ed.; And Others

    1981-01-01

    A collection of articles examines the changing character of the American population and the importance of planning new recreation and leisure services to meet changing population needs. Included are discussions on demography and population dynamics; the effects of immigration; changing work and life styles; and changes in family structure and…

  8. [The effect of the new technological revolution on population dynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, K

    1985-01-29

    The impact of modernization on population dynamics in China is examined. The author notes that the industrialization process involves the concentration of the population in urban areas and the mechanization of agriculture. The need to redistribute the urban population from major urban areas to smaller towns is noted.

  9. Population dynamics model for plasmid bearing and plasmid lacking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Streptokinase production in bioreactor is well associated to cell population dynamics. It is an established fact that two types of cell populations are found to emerge from the initial pool of recombinant cell population. This phenomenon leads to an undesired loss in yield of the product. Primary metabolites, like acetic acid etc ...

  10. Understanding collective dynamics of soft active colloids by binary scattering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanke, Timo; Weber, Christoph A; Frey, Erwin

    2013-11-01

    Collective motion in actively propelled particle systems is triggered on the very local scale by nucleation of coherently moving units consisting of just a handful of particles. These units grow and merge over time, ending up in a long-range ordered, coherently moving state. So far, there exists no bottom-up understanding of how the microscopic dynamics and interactions between the constituents are related to the system's ordering instability. In this paper, we study a class of models for propelled colloids allowing an explicit treatment of the microscopic details of the collision process. Specifically, the model equations are Newtonian equations of motion with separate force terms for particles' driving, dissipation, and interaction forces. Focusing on dilute particle systems, we analyze the binary scattering behavior for these models and determine-based on the microscopic dynamics-the corresponding "collision rule," i.e., the mapping of precollisional velocities and impact parameter on postcollisional velocities. By studying binary scattering we also find that the considered models for active colloids share the same principle for parallel alignment: The first incoming particle (with respect to the center of collision) is aligned to the second particle as a result of the encounter. This behavior distinctively differs from alignment in nondriven dissipative gases. Moreover, the obtained collision rule lends itself as a starting point to apply kinetic theory for propelled particle systems in order to determine the phase boundary to a long-range ordered, coherently moving state. The microscopic origin of the collision rule offers the opportunity to quantitatively scrutinize the predictions of kinetic theory for propelled particle systems through direct comparison with multiparticle simulations. We identify local precursor correlations at the onset of collective motion to constitute the essential determinant for a qualitative and quantitative validity of kinetic

  11. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S., E-mail: ajinkyagavane@gmail.com; Nigam, Rahul, E-mail: rahul.nigam@hyderabad.bits-pilani.ac.in [BITS Pilani Hyderabad Campus, Shameerpet, Hyd - 500078 (India)

    2016-06-02

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  12. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S.; Nigam, Rahul

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  13. Analysis of Population Diversity of Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingjian Ni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In evolutionary algorithm, population diversity is an important factor for solving performance. In this paper, combined with some population diversity analysis methods in other evolutionary algorithms, three indicators are introduced to be measures of population diversity in PSO algorithms, which are standard deviation of population fitness values, population entropy, and Manhattan norm of standard deviation in population positions. The three measures are used to analyze the population diversity in a relatively new PSO variant—Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization (DPPSO. The results show that the three measure methods can fully reflect the evolution of population diversity in DPPSO algorithms from different angles, and we also discuss the impact of population diversity on the DPPSO variants. The relevant conclusions of the population diversity on DPPSO can be used to analyze, design, and improve the DPPSO algorithms, thus improving optimization performance, which could also be beneficial to understand the working mechanism of DPPSO theoretically.

  14. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B., E-mail: medvinsky@iteb.ru [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Rusakov, Alexey V. [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation)

    2011-06-15

    Highlights: > We model community dynamics in stateless societies. > Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. > Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. > Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  15. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B.; Rusakov, Alexey V.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We model community dynamics in stateless societies. → Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. → Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. → Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  16. Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1978-01-01

    The interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations is reexamined by potential theory; both numerical and analytical solutions are derived for the nonlinear partial differential equations which specify a range of relevant models, drawn from blast wave physics, soil science, and, especially, population biology. An essential feature of these models is that, for all civilizations, population growth must be limited by the carrying capacity of the environment. Dispersal is fundamentally a diffusion process; a density-dependent diffusivity describes interstellar emigration. Two models are considered: the first describing zero population growth (ZPG), and the second which also includes local growth and saturation of a planetary population, and for which an asymptotic traveling wave solution is found.

  17. Seasonal population dynamics and energy consumption by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dynamiques saisonnières de population et consommation énergétique par les oiseaux aquatiques d'un petit estuaire tempéré De simples mesures des dynamiques de population et de consommation énergétique peuvent fournir des informations de base sur le rôle des consommateurs au sein des réseaux trophiques, ...

  18. Toward a Better Understanding of Population Genetics: Pop!World--A Virtual, Inquiry-Based Tool for Teaching Population Genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulin, Jessica; Ramamurthy, Bina; Dittmar, Katharina

    2013-01-01

    Population genetics is fundamental to understanding evolutionary theory, and is taught in most introductory biology/evolution courses. Many students are unaware that understanding this topic requires pertinent knowledge

  19. Population dynamics of estuarine amphipods in Cochin backwaters

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nair, K.K.C.; Gopalakrishnan, T.C.; Venugopal, P.; Peter, G.; Jayalakshmy, K.V.; Rao, T.S.S.

    Population dynamics of 11 gammarid amphipod species (belonging to 9 genera), collected from Cochin backwaters, have been studied for the first time, based on an year round collection. The species are : Corophium triaenonyx Stebbing, Photis digitata...

  20. Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

    KAUST Repository

    Mabrok, Mohamed

    2017-01-05

    Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population games, namely so-called “stable games”. In particular, it was shown that a combination of stable games and (an analogue of) passive evolutionary dynamics results in stable convergence to Nash equilibrium. This paper considers the converse question of necessary conditions for evolutionary dynamics to exhibit stable behaviors for all generalized stable games. Using methods from robust control analysis, we show that if an evolutionary dynamic does not satisfy a passivity property, then it is possible to construct a generalized stable game that results in instability. The results are illustrated on selected evolutionary dynamics with particular attention to replicator dynamics, which are also shown to be lossless, a special class of passive systems.

  1. A linear model of population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.

    2016-08-01

    The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).

  2. Population dynamics in rural South Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugo, G J; Smailes, P J

    1992-01-01

    The authors examine recent trends in Australia in turnaround migration, or the movement of the population from urban to rural areas. "The paper assesses the major changes which have occurred in population trends within the non-metropolitan sector of the nation, South Australia and, in particular, a study area in the lower north region of South Australia. The analysis of the case study region draws upon a survey undertaken in 1968-1970 and partially replicated in 1980 and 1990. It appears that for Australia in general and for the study area the turnaround is continuing but at a slower pace and in a more spatially concentrated pattern." excerpt

  3. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

    2008-01-01

    , the effects of climate change may potentially extend through any of these interactions. In this chapter, we focus on the extent to which evolutionarily distinct species at different trophic levels respond to similar changes in climate. By using a broad spectrum of statistically and ecologically founded...... and three out of five wader species, displayed significant direct density dependence. Only two species (sanderling and long-tailed skua) displayed dynamics characterised by delayed density dependence. The direct effects of previous winter's snow were related to over-wintering strategies of resident...... of arctic fox were not significantly related to changes in lemming abundance, both the stoat and the breeding of long-tailed skua were mainly related to lemming dynamics. The predator-prey system at Zackenberg differentiates from previously described systems in high-arctic Greenland, which, we suggest...

  4. Dynamics of a structured neuron population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pakdaman, Khashayar; Salort, Delphine; Perthame, Benoît

    2010-01-01

    We study the dynamics of assemblies of interacting neurons. For large fully connected networks, the dynamics of the system can be described by a partial differential equation reminiscent of age-structure models used in mathematical ecology, where the 'age' of a neuron represents the time elapsed since its last discharge. The nonlinearity arises from the connectivity J of the network. We prove some mathematical properties of the model that are directly related to qualitative properties. On the one hand, we prove that it is well-posed and that it admits stationary states which, depending upon the connectivity, can be unique or not. On the other hand, we study the long time behaviour of solutions; both for small and large J, we prove the relaxation to the steady state describing asynchronous firing of the neurons. In the middle range, numerical experiments show that periodic solutions appear expressing re-synchronization of the network and asynchronous firing

  5. Programming microbial population dynamics by engineered cell-cell communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hao; Payne, Stephen; Tan, Cheemeng; You, Lingchong

    2011-07-01

    A major aim of synthetic biology is to program novel cellular behavior using engineered gene circuits. Early endeavors focused on building simple circuits that fulfill simple functions, such as logic gates, bistable toggle switches, and oscillators. These gene circuits have primarily focused on single-cell behaviors since they operate intracellularly. Thus, they are often susceptible to cell-cell variations due to stochastic gene expression. Cell-cell communication offers an efficient strategy to coordinate cellular behavior at the population level. To this end, we review recent advances in engineering cell-cell communication to achieve reliable population dynamics, spanning from communication within single species to multispecies, from one-way sender-receiver communication to two-way communication in synthetic microbial ecosystems. These engineered systems serve as well-defined model systems to better understand design principles of their naturally occurring counterparts and to facilitate novel biotechnology applications. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  6. Population and Resource Control Measures: A Conceptual Framework for Understanding and Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Population and Resource Control Measures: A Conceptual Framework for Understanding and Implementation...successful use of population and resource control measures. If utilized correctly, PRCMs are powerful operational tools that can be used to break...NUMBER OF PAGES 71 14. SUBJECT TERMS Population and resource control measures, Population control , Counterinsurgency, COIN, Population

  7. The Contribution of GGOS to Understanding Dynamic Earth Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Richard

    2017-04-01

    Geodesy is the science of the Earth's shape, size, gravity and rotation, including their evolution in time. Geodetic observations play a major role in the solid Earth sciences because they are fundamental for the understanding and modeling of Earth system processes. Changes in the Earth's shape, its gravitational field, and its rotation are caused by external forces acting on the Earth system and internal processes involving mass transfer and exchange of angular and linear momentum. Thus, variations in these geodetic quantities of the Earth reflect and constrain mechanical and thermo-dynamic processes in the Earth system. Mitigating the impact on human life and property of natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, debris flows, landslides, land subsidence, sea level change, tsunamis, floods, storm surges, hurricanes and extreme weather is an important scientific task to which geodetic observations make fundamental contributions. Geodetic observations can be used to monitor the pre-eruptive deformation of volcanoes and the pre-seismic deformation of earthquake fault zones, aiding in the issuance of volcanic eruption and earthquake warnings. They can also be used to rapidly estimate earthquake fault motion, aiding in the modeling of tsunami genesis and the issuance of tsunami warnings. Geodetic observations are also used in other areas of the Earth sciences, not just the solid Earth sciences. For example, geodesy contributes to atmospheric science by supporting both observation and prediction of the weather by geo-referencing meteorological observing data and by globally tracking change in stratospheric mass and lower tropospheric water vapor fields. Geodetic measurements of refraction profiles derived from satellite occultation data are routinely assimilated into numerical weather prediction models. Geodesy contributes to hydrologic studies by providing a unique global reference system for measurements of: sub-seasonal, seasonal and secular movements

  8. Understanding quantum measurement from the solution of dynamical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Balian, Roger; Nieuwenhuizen, Theo M.

    2013-01-01

    The quantum measurement problem, to wit, understanding why a unique outcome is obtained in each individual experiment, is currently tackled by solving models. After an introduction we review the many dynamical models proposed over the years for elucidating quantum measurements. The approaches range from standard quantum theory, relying for instance on quantum statistical mechanics or on decoherence, to quantum–classical methods, to consistent histories and to modifications of the theory. Next, a flexible and rather realistic quantum model is introduced, describing the measurement of the z-component of a spin through interaction with a magnetic memory simulated by a Curie–Weiss magnet, including N≫1 spins weakly coupled to a phonon bath. Initially prepared in a metastable paramagnetic state, it may transit to its up or down ferromagnetic state, triggered by its coupling with the tested spin, so that its magnetization acts as a pointer. A detailed solution of the dynamical equations is worked out, exhibiting several time scales. Conditions on the parameters of the model are found, which ensure that the process satisfies all the features of ideal measurements. Various imperfections of the measurement are discussed, as well as attempts of incompatible measurements. The first steps consist in the solution of the Hamiltonian dynamics for the spin-apparatus density matrix D -hat (t). Its off-diagonal blocks in a basis selected by the spin–pointer coupling, rapidly decay owing to the many degrees of freedom of the pointer. Recurrences are ruled out either by some randomness of that coupling, or by the interaction with the bath. On a longer time scale, the trend towards equilibrium of the magnet produces a final state D -hat (t f ) that involves correlations between the system and the indications of the pointer, thus ensuring registration. Although D -hat (t f ) has the form expected for ideal measurements, it only describes a large set of runs. Individual runs are

  9. Understanding quantum measurement from the solution of dynamical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E. [Laboratoire de Physique Statistique et Systèmes Complexes, ISMANS, 44 Av. Bartholdi, 72000 Le Mans (France); Balian, Roger [Institut de Physique Théorique, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cedex (France); Nieuwenhuizen, Theo M., E-mail: T.M.Nieuwenhuizen@uva.nl [Center for Cosmology and Particle Physics, New York University, 4 Washington Place, New York, NY 10003 (United States)

    2013-04-15

    The quantum measurement problem, to wit, understanding why a unique outcome is obtained in each individual experiment, is currently tackled by solving models. After an introduction we review the many dynamical models proposed over the years for elucidating quantum measurements. The approaches range from standard quantum theory, relying for instance on quantum statistical mechanics or on decoherence, to quantum–classical methods, to consistent histories and to modifications of the theory. Next, a flexible and rather realistic quantum model is introduced, describing the measurement of the z-component of a spin through interaction with a magnetic memory simulated by a Curie–Weiss magnet, including N≫1 spins weakly coupled to a phonon bath. Initially prepared in a metastable paramagnetic state, it may transit to its up or down ferromagnetic state, triggered by its coupling with the tested spin, so that its magnetization acts as a pointer. A detailed solution of the dynamical equations is worked out, exhibiting several time scales. Conditions on the parameters of the model are found, which ensure that the process satisfies all the features of ideal measurements. Various imperfections of the measurement are discussed, as well as attempts of incompatible measurements. The first steps consist in the solution of the Hamiltonian dynamics for the spin-apparatus density matrix D{sup -hat} (t). Its off-diagonal blocks in a basis selected by the spin–pointer coupling, rapidly decay owing to the many degrees of freedom of the pointer. Recurrences are ruled out either by some randomness of that coupling, or by the interaction with the bath. On a longer time scale, the trend towards equilibrium of the magnet produces a final state D{sup -hat} (t{sub f}) that involves correlations between the system and the indications of the pointer, thus ensuring registration. Although D{sup -hat} (t{sub f}) has the form expected for ideal measurements, it only describes a large set of

  10. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE WANDERING ALBATROSS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changes in several demographic parameters that appear to be influenced by both environmental and anthropogenic effects are described. From 1994–2001, the proportion of first-time breeders in the population was positively correlated with the maximum ENSO (Niño 3) index, whereas from 1984–2000 the annual survival ...

  11. Short Communication: Occurrence and Population Dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The dangerous tomato leaf miner pest (Tuta absoluta), which was reported to have crossed into Ethiopia via the Sudan in 2012, has scared tomato producing farmers across the country. Therefore, a study was conducted using pheromone traps to elucidate the occurrence of the insect pest and to monitor its population ...

  12. One of the largest obstacles to understanding the population ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    spamer

    LOUGH, R. G. 1974 — Dynamics of crab larvae (Anomura,. Brachyura) off the central Oregon coast, 1969–1971. Ph.D. thesis, Oregon State University: 299 pp. PARRISH, R. H., NELSON, C. S. and A. BAKUN 1981 — Trans- port mechanisms and reproductive success of fishes in the. California Current. Biol. Oceanogr.

  13. Nonlinear population dynamics in a bounded habitat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombo, E H; Anteneodo, C

    2018-02-27

    A key issue in ecology is whether a population will survive long term or go extinct. This is the question we address in this paper for a population in a bounded habitat. We will restrict our study to the case of a single species in a one-dimensional habitat of length L. The evolution of the population density distribution ρ(x, t), where x is the position and t the time, is governed by elementary processes such as growth and dispersal, which, in standard models, are typically described by a constant per capita growth rate and normal diffusion, respectively. However, feedbacks in the regulatory mechanisms and external factors can produce density-dependent rates. Therefore, we consider a generalization of the standard evolution equation, which, after dimensional scaling and assuming large carrying capacity, becomes ∂ t ρ=∂ x (ρ ν-1 ∂ x ρ)+ρ μ , where μ,ν∈R. This equation is complemented by absorbing boundaries, mimicking adverse conditions outside the habitat. For this nonlinear problem, we obtain, analytically, exact expressions of the critical habitat size L c for population survival, as a function of the exponents and initial conditions. We find that depending on the values of the exponents (ν, μ), population survival can occur for either L > L c , L < L c or for any L. This generalizes the usual statement that L c represents the minimum habitat size. In addition, nonlinearities introduce dependence on the initial conditions, affecting L c . Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. The Influence of Individual Variability on Zooplankton Population Dynamics under Different Environmental Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, R.; Liu, H.

    2016-02-01

    Understanding how biological components respond to environmental changes could be insightful to predict ecosystem trajectories under different climate scenarios. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems and changes in their dynamics could have major impact on ecosystem structure. We developed an individual-based model of a common coastal calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa to examine how environmental factors affect zooplankton population dynamics and explore the role of individual variability in sustaining population under various environmental conditions consisting of temperature, food concentration and salinity. Total abundance, egg production and proportion of survival were used to measure population success. Results suggested population benefits from high level of individual variability under extreme environmental conditions including unfavorable temperature, salinity, as well as low food concentration, and selection on fast-growers becomes stronger with increasing individual variability and increasing environmental stress. Multiple regression analysis showed that temperature, food concentration, salinity and individual variability have significant effects on survival of A. tonsa population. These results suggest that environmental factors have great influence on zooplankton population, and individual variability has important implications for population survivability under unfavorable conditions. Given that marine ecosystems are at risk from drastic environmental changes, understanding how individual variability sustains populations could increase our capability to predict population dynamics in a changing environment.

  15. Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

    2015-01-01

    The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000–19,000 y ago (27–19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30–13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. PMID:26100880

  16. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    RESEARCH ARTICLE. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred laboratory populations of Drosophila. LAURENCE D. MUELLER1∗, AMITABH JOSHI1,2, MARTA SANTOS1 and MICHAEL R. ROSE1. 1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.

  17. Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

    2006-01-01

    Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

  18. The frankincense tree of Ethiopia : ecology, productivity and population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eshete Wassie, A.

    2011-01-01

    Keywords: Boswellian papyrifera, Frankincense tree, matrix model, population dynamics,
    population bottleneck, tapping.

    Combretum – Terminalia woodlands and Acacia – Commiphora woodlands are the two
    dominant vegetation types that cover large parts of the dry land areas in

  19. Population dynamics of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The population dynamics, including the sex ratio, reproductive period, individual growth and longevity, and population structure of the shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri, are described. The shrimps were collected monthly from July 2005 to June 2007 at four sites in Ubatuba Bay, Brazil. The salinity, temperature, depth, organic ...

  20. Population dynamics and distribution of the coffee berry borer ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics and distribution of coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were studied on Coffea arabica L. in southwestern region of Ethiopia. Thirty coffee trees were sampled at weekly intervals from 2000 to 2001. Findings of this study showed that coffee berry borer population ...

  1. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Anung Basuki

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  2. Spatial-temporal population dynamics across species range: from centre to margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qinfeng Guo; Mark Taper; Michele Schoenberger; J. Brandle

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the boundaries of species'rangs and the variations in population dynamics from the centre to margin of a species' range is critical. This study simulated spatial-tamporal patterns of birth and death rates and migration across a species' range in different seasons. Our results demonstrated the importance of dispersal and migration in...

  3. Understanding dynamic changes in live cell adhesion with neutron reflectometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junghans, Ann

    Understanding the structure and functionality of biological systems on a nanometer-resolution and short temporal scales is important for solving complex biological problems, developing innovative treatment, and advancing the design of highly functionalized biomimetic materials. For example, adhesion of cells to an underlying substrate plays a crucial role in physiology and disease development, and has been investigated with great interest for several decades. In the talk, we would like to highlight recent advances in utilizing neutron scattering to study bio-related structures in dynamic conditions (e . g . under the shear flow) including in-situ investigations of the interfacial properties of living cells. The strength of neutron reflectometry is its non-pertubative nature, the ability to probe buried interfaces with nanometer resolution and its sensitivity to light elements like hydrogen and carbon. That allows us to study details of cell - substrate interfaces that are not accessible with any other standard techniques. We studied the adhesion of human brain tumor cells (U251) to quartz substrates and their responses to the external mechanical forces. Such cells are isolated within the central nervous system which makes them difficult to reach with conventional therapies and therefore making them highly invasive. Our results reveal changes in the thickness and composition of the adhesion layer (a layer between the cell lipid membrane and the quartz substrate), largely composed of hyaluronic acid and associated proteoglycans, when the cells were subjected to shear stress. Further studies will allow us to determine more conditions triggering changes in the composition of the bio-material in the adhesion layer. This, in turn, can help to identify changes that correlate with tumor invasiveness, which can have significant medical impact for the development of targeted anti-invasive therapies.

  4. Null controllability of a nonlinear population dynamics problem

    OpenAIRE

    Traore, Oumar

    2006-01-01

    We establish a null controllability result for a nonlinear population dynamics model. In our model, the birth term is nonlocal and describes the recruitment process in newborn individuals population. Using a derivation of Leray-Schauder fixed point theorem and Carleman inequality for the adjoint system, we show that for all given initial density, there exists an internal control acting on a small open set of the domain and leading the population to extinction.

  5. Population dynamics of metastable growth-rate phenotypes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay S Moore

    Full Text Available Neo-Darwinian evolution has presented a paradigm for population dynamics built on random mutations and selection with a clear separation of time-scales between single-cell mutation rates and the rate of reproduction. Laboratory experiments on evolving populations until now have concentrated on the fixation of beneficial mutations. Following the Darwinian paradigm, these experiments probed populations at low temporal resolution dictated by the rate of rare mutations, ignoring the intermediate evolving phenotypes. Selection however, works on phenotypes rather than genotypes. Research in recent years has uncovered the complexity of genotype-to-phenotype transformation and a wealth of intracellular processes including epigenetic inheritance, which operate on a wide range of time-scales. Here, by studying the adaptation dynamics of genetically rewired yeast cells, we show a novel type of population dynamics in which the intracellular processes intervene in shaping the population structure. Under constant environmental conditions, we measure a wide distribution of growth rates that coexist in the population for very long durations (>100 generations. Remarkably, the fastest growing cells do not take over the population on the time-scale dictated by the width of the growth-rate distributions and simple selection. Additionally, we measure significant fluctuations in the population distribution of various phenotypes: the fraction of exponentially-growing cells, the distributions of single-cell growth-rates and protein content. The observed fluctuations relax on time-scales of many generations and thus do not reflect noisy processes. Rather, our data show that the phenotypic state of the cells, including the growth-rate, for large populations in a constant environment is metastable and varies on time-scales that reflect the importance of long-term intracellular processes in shaping the population structure. This lack of time-scale separation between the

  6. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  7. Dynamic Properties of the Alkaline Vesicle Population at Hippocampal Synapses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röther, Mareike; Brauner, Jan M.; Ebert, Katrin; Welzel, Oliver; Jung, Jasmin; Bauereiss, Anna; Kornhuber, Johannes; Groemer, Teja W.

    2014-01-01

    In compensatory endocytosis, scission of vesicles from the plasma membrane to the cytoplasm is a prerequisite for intravesicular reacidification and accumulation of neurotransmitter molecules. Here, we provide time-resolved measurements of the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population which appears upon endocytic retrieval. Using fast perfusion pH-cycling in live-cell microscopy, synapto-pHluorin expressing rat hippocampal neurons were electrically stimulated. We found that the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population depended significantly on the electrical stimulus size: With increasing number of action potentials the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population expanded. In contrast to that, increasing the stimulus frequency reduced the relative size of the population of alkaline vesicles. Measurement of the time constant for reacification and calculation of the time constant for endocytosis revealed that both time constants were variable with regard to the stimulus condition. Furthermore, we show that the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population can be predicted by a simple mathematical model. In conclusion, here a novel methodical approach to analyze dynamic properties of alkaline vesicles is presented and validated as a convenient method for the detection of intracellular events. Using this method we show that the population of alkaline vesicles is highly dynamic and depends both on stimulus strength and frequency. Our results implicate that determination of the alkaline vesicle population size may provide new insights into the kinetics of endocytic retrieval. PMID:25079223

  8. Dynamical quorum sensing and clustering dynamics in a population of spatially distributed active rotators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakaguchi, Hidetsugu; Maeyama, Satomi

    2013-02-01

    A model of clustering dynamics is proposed for a population of spatially distributed active rotators. A transition from excitable to oscillatory dynamics is induced by the increase of the local density of active rotators. It is interpreted as dynamical quorum sensing. In the oscillation regime, phase waves propagate without decay, which generates an effectively long-range interaction in the clustering dynamics. The clustering process becomes facilitated and only one dominant cluster appears rapidly as a result of the dynamical quorum sensing. An exact localized solution is found to a simplified model equation, and the competitive dynamics between two localized states is studied numerically.

  9. The role of spatial dynamics in the stability, resilience, and productivity of an estuarine fish population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, L A; Cadrin, S X; Secor, D H

    2010-03-01

    Understanding mechanisms that support long-term persistence of populations and sustainability of productive fisheries is a priority in fisheries management. Complex spatial structure within populations is increasingly viewed as a result of a plastic behavioral response that can have consequences for the dynamics of a population. We incorporated spatial structure and environmental forcing into a population model to examine the consequences for population stability (coefficient of variation of spawning-stock biomass), resilience (time to recover from disturbance), and productivity (spawning-stock biomass). White perch (Morone americana) served as a model species that exhibits simultaneous occurrence of migratory and resident groups within a population. We evaluated the role that contingents (behavioral groups within populations that exhibit divergent life histories) play in mitigating population responses to unfavorable environmental conditions. We used age-structured models that incorporated contingent-specific vital rates to simulate population dynamics of white perch in a sub-estuary of Chesapeake Bay, USA. The dynamics of the population were most sensitive to the proportion of individuals within each contingent and to a lesser degree to the level of correlation in recruitment between contingents in their responses to the environment. Increased representation of the dispersive contingent within populations resulted in increased productivity and resilience, but decreased stability. Empirical evidence from the Patuxent River white perch population was consistent with these findings. A high negative correlation in resident and dispersive contingent recruitment dynamics resulted in increased productivity and stability, with little effect on resilience. With high positive correlation between contingent recruitments, the model showed similar responses in population productivity and resilience, but decreased stability. Because contingent structure involves differing

  10. Strongly Deterministic Population Dynamics in Closed Microbial Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zak Frentz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Biological systems are influenced by random processes at all scales, including molecular, demographic, and behavioral fluctuations, as well as by their interactions with a fluctuating environment. We previously established microbial closed ecosystems (CES as model systems for studying the role of random events and the emergent statistical laws governing population dynamics. Here, we present long-term measurements of population dynamics using replicate digital holographic microscopes that maintain CES under precisely controlled external conditions while automatically measuring abundances of three microbial species via single-cell imaging. With this system, we measure spatiotemporal population dynamics in more than 60 replicate CES over periods of months. In contrast to previous studies, we observe strongly deterministic population dynamics in replicate systems. Furthermore, we show that previously discovered statistical structure in abundance fluctuations across replicate CES is driven by variation in external conditions, such as illumination. In particular, we confirm the existence of stable ecomodes governing the correlations in population abundances of three species. The observation of strongly deterministic dynamics, together with stable structure of correlations in response to external perturbations, points towards a possibility of simple macroscopic laws governing microbial systems despite numerous stochastic events present on microscopic levels.

  11. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  12. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low-or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  13. Modeling community population dynamics with the open-source language R.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Robin; Shou, Wenying

    2014-01-01

    The ability to explain biological phenomena with mathematics and to generate predictions from mathematical models is critical for understanding and controlling natural systems. Concurrently, the rise in open-source software has greatly increased the ease at which researchers can implement their own mathematical models. With a reasonably sound understanding of mathematics and programming skills, a researcher can quickly and easily use such tools for their own work. The purpose of this chapter is to expose the reader to one such tool, the open-source programming language R, and to demonstrate its practical application to studying population dynamics. We use the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey dynamics as an example.

  14. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  15. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessia Uboni

    Full Text Available Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species

  16. feedback between population and evolutionary dynamics determines the fate of social microbial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sanchez

    Full Text Available The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50-100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators "spiral" to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the

  17. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F.; Laine, Anna-Liisa

    2015-01-01

    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations—more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host–pathogen metapopulation. PMID:25569306

  18. Interacting trophic forcing and the population dynamics of herring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Ostman, Orjan; Gardmark, Anna

    2011-01-01

    . Using a statistical, age-structured modeling approach, we demonstrate the relative importance and influence of bottom-up (e.g., climate, zooplankton availability) and top-down (i.e., fishing and predation) factors on the population dynamics of Bothnian Sea herring (Clupea harengus) throughout its life......Small pelagic fish occupy a central position in marine ecosystems worldwide, largely by determining the energy transfer from lower trophic levels to predators at the top of the food web, including humans. Population dynamics of small pelagic fish may therefore be regulated neither strictly bottom......-up nor top-down, but rather through multiple external and internal drivers. While in many studies single drivers have been identified, potential synergies of multiple factors, as well as their relative importance in regulating population dynamics of small pelagic fish, is a largely unresolved issue...

  19. Facilitating Understanding of Movements in Dynamic Visualizations: An Embodied Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.B. de Koning (Björn); H.K. Tabbers (Huib)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractLearners studying mechanical or technical processes via dynamic visualizations often fail to build an accurate mental representation of the system's movements. Based on embodied theories of cognition assuming that action, perception, and cognition are closely intertwined, this paper

  20. Understanding positivity within dynamic team interactions: A statistical discourse analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Lehmann-Willenbrock, N.K.; Chiu, M.M.; Lei, Z.; Kauffeld, S.

    2017-01-01

    Positivity has been heralded for its individual benefits. However, how positivity dynamically unfolds within the temporal flow of team interactions remains unclear. This is an important oversight, as positivity can be key to team problem solving and performance. In this study, we examine how team micro-processes affect the likelihood of positivity occurring within dynamic team interactions. In doing so, we build on and expand previous work on individual positivity and integrate theory on temp...

  1. Adaptive Dynamics, Control, and Extinction in Networked Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-09

    extinction . VI. CONCLUSIONS We have presented a method for predicting extinction in stochastic network systems by analyzing a pair-based proxy model...including games on networks (e.g., [40], [41]). Further, we expect that our method of continuously varying a parameter while tracking the path to extinction ...Adaptive Dynamics, Control, and Extinction in Networked Populations Ira B. Schwartz US Naval Research Laboratory Code 6792 Nonlinear System Dynamics

  2. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  3. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  4. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Lima

    Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  5. The ecological foundation for ecosystem-based management of fisheries: mechanistic linkages between the individual-, population-, and community-level dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Persson, L.; van Leeuwen, A.; de Roos, A.M.

    2014-01-01

    Food-dependent growth and size-dependent interactions form cornerstones in the dynamics of fish populations. Using two freshwater examples, we illustrate the importance of considering both these cornerstones for understanding system dynamics. Moreover, a proper understanding of the dynamics requires

  6. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R K P

    2010-01-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (N a and N b ) and preferred degree (κ a and κ b a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees (k bb ) and (k ab ) presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal N a = N b , the ratio of the restricted degree θ 0 = (k ab )/(k bb ) appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t 1 = κ b ) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ 0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t 1 2 ∝κ a and for which θ 0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ 0 = 3

  7. Sustaining salmonid populations: A caring understanding of naturalness of taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Regier, Henry A.; Knudsen, E. Eric

    2004-01-01

    Species of the family of Salmonidae occur naturally in Northern Hemisphere waters that remain clear and cool to cold in summer. For purposes of reproduction, salmonids generally behaviorally respond to the currents of streams and lakes in recently glaciated areas. For feeding and maturation, many larger species migrate into existing systems of large lakes, seas, and oceans. The subfamilies include Salmoninae, Coregoninae, and Thymallinae. In many locales and regions of the hemisphere, numerous species of these subfamilies evolved and self-organized into species flocks or taxocenes of bewildering complexity. For example, any individual species may play different or unique ecological roles in different taxocenes. The northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean ecosystems, with their seas and tributaries, each contained a metacomplex of such taxocenes that, in their natural state some centuries ago, resembled each other but differed in many ways. Humans have valued all species of this family for subsistence, ceremonial, naturalist, gustatory, angling, and commercial reasons for centuries. Modern progressive humans (MPHs), whose industrial and commercial enterprises have gradually spread over this hemisphere in recent time, now affect aquatic ecosystems at all scales from local to global. These human effects mingle in complex ways that together induce uniquely natural salmonid taxocenes to disintegrate with the loss of species, including those groups least tolerant to human manipulations, but extending more recently to those taxa more adapted to anthropogenic change. As we leave the modern era, dominated by MPHs, will we find ways to live sustainably with salmonid taxocenes that still exhibit self-organizational integrity, or will only individual, isolated populations of salmonid species, derived from those most tolerant of MPHs, survive? To achieve future sustainability of salmonids, we suggest implementation of a search for intuitive knowledge based on faith in the wisdom of

  8. Understanding Peripheral Bat Populations Using Maximum-Entropy Suitability Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnhart, Paul R; Gillam, Erin H

    2016-01-01

    Individuals along the periphery of a species distribution regularly encounter more challenging environmental and climatic conditions than conspecifics near the center of the distribution. Due to these potential constraints, individuals in peripheral margins are expected to change their habitat and behavioral characteristics. Managers typically rely on species distribution maps when developing adequate management practices. However, these range maps are often too simplistic and do not provide adequate information as to what fine-scale biotic and abiotic factors are driving a species occurrence. In the last decade, habitat suitability modelling has become widely used as a substitute for simplistic distribution mapping which allows regional managers the ability to fine-tune management resources. The objectives of this study were to use maximum-entropy modeling to produce habitat suitability models for seven species that have a peripheral margin intersecting the state of North Dakota, according to current IUCN distributions, and determine the vegetative and climatic characteristics driving these models. Mistnetting resulted in the documentation of five species outside the IUCN distribution in North Dakota, indicating that current range maps for North Dakota, and potentially the northern Great Plains, are in need of update. Maximum-entropy modeling showed that temperature and not precipitation were the variables most important for model production. This fine-scale result highlights the importance of habitat suitability modelling as this information cannot be extracted from distribution maps. Our results provide baseline information needed for future research about how and why individuals residing in the peripheral margins of a species' distribution may show marked differences in habitat use as a result of urban expansion, habitat loss, and climate change compared to more centralized populations.

  9. Population dynamics in the capitalist world-economy

    OpenAIRE

    Danna, D.

    2014-01-01

    World-systems analysis has given scant attention to population dynamics. Overlooked are large-scale macrohistorical population trends and their microhistorical foundation on procreative decisions-decisions which are taken by a historically changing subject of procreation: local elders or other authorities, head(s) of the household, couples, and women. The discipline of demography is also not as helpful as it could be, given its basis in modernization theory, which fails to recognize intention...

  10. Technological change, population dynamics, and natural resource depletion

    OpenAIRE

    Schaefer, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we integrate fertility and educational choices into a scale-invariant model of directed technological change with non-renewable natural resources, in order to reveal the interaction between population dynamics, technological change, and natural resource depletion. In line with empirical regularities, skill-biased technological change induces a decline in population growth and a transitory increase in the depletion rate of natural resources. In the long-run, the depletion rate a...

  11. Population-Dynamic Modeling of Bacterial Horizontal Gene Transfer by Natural Transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Junwen; Lu, Ting

    2016-01-05

    Natural transformation is a major mechanism of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) and plays an essential role in bacterial adaptation, evolution, and speciation. Although its molecular underpinnings have been increasingly revealed, natural transformation is not well characterized in terms of its quantitative ecological roles. Here, by using Neisseria gonorrhoeae as an example, we developed a population-dynamic model for natural transformation and analyzed its dynamic characteristics with nonlinear tools and simulations. Our study showed that bacteria capable of natural transformation can display distinct population behaviors ranging from extinction to coexistence and to bistability, depending on their HGT rate and selection coefficient. With the model, we also illustrated the roles of environmental DNA sources-active secretion and passive release-in impacting population dynamics. Additionally, by constructing and utilizing a stochastic version of the model, we examined how noise shapes the steady and dynamic behaviors of the system. Notably, we found that distinct waiting time statistics for HGT events, namely a power-law distribution, an exponential distribution, and a mix of the both, are associated with the dynamics in the regimes of extinction, coexistence, and bistability accordingly. This work offers a quantitative illustration of natural transformation by revealing its complex population dynamics and associated characteristics, therefore advancing our ecological understanding of natural transformation as well as HGT in general. Copyright © 2016 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. An individual-based model of Zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaudouin, Remy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) w...

  13. Understanding positivity within dynamic team interactions: A statistical discourse analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lehmann-Willenbrock, N.K.; Chiu, M.M.; Lei, Z.; Kauffeld, S.

    2017-01-01

    Positivity has been heralded for its individual benefits. However, how positivity dynamically unfolds within the temporal flow of team interactions remains unclear. This is an important oversight, as positivity can be key to team problem solving and performance. In this study, we examine how team

  14. Understanding ecohydrological connectivity in savannas: A system dynamics modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecohydrological connectivity is a system-level property that results from the linkages in the networks of water transport through ecosystems, by which feedback effects and other emergent system behaviors may be generated. We created a systems dynamic model that represents primary ecohydrological net...

  15. Dynamic Reaction Figures: An Integrative Vehicle for Understanding Chemical Reactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Emeric

    2008-01-01

    A highly flexible learning tool, referred to as a dynamic reaction figure, is described. Application of these figures can (i) yield the correct chemical equation by simply following a set of menu driven directions; (ii) present the underlying "mechanism" in chemical reactions; and (iii) help to solve quantitative problems in a number of different…

  16. Understanding Positivity Within Dynamic Team Interactions : A statistical discourse analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lehmann-Willenbrock, N.; Chiu, Ming Ming; Lei, Zhike; Kauffeld, Simone

    2017-01-01

    Positivity has been heralded for its individual benefits. However, how positivity dynamically unfolds within the temporal flow of team interactions remains unclear. This is an important oversight, as positivity can be key to team problem solving and performance. In this study, we examine how team

  17. Population dynamics and monitoring applied to decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conroy, M. J.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Research in wildlife conservation and management often affects decisions made by managers. Improving understanding through applied research is key to advancing the ability to manage birds and other organism sefficiently. Indeed, many papers from EURING 2003 and previous EURING meetings describe research on problems of pressing management concern. In this session, we focus on a subset of studies in which modeling and statistical estimation is explicitly connected to management decision-making. In these decision–centric studies, data are gathered and models are constructed with the explicit intention of using the resulting information to inform decisions about conservation. Whereas ecological models often produce information of value to decision makers, decision models explicitly include two additional features. First, management options are modeled via decision variables that link to system attributes that are directly responsive to management actions, such as harvest and habitat management. Second, certain outcomes are assigned value, via an objective or utility function. Both of these features involve factors beyond the usual consideration of ecological modeling; the first implies the presence of one or more “decision makers”, and the second characterizes the societal preferences of each possible outcome resulting from a prospective decision. Our plenary paper, by Tim Haas (Haas, 2004, ventures the furthest into the realm of human behavior and societal processes by modeling the political context for conservation of the endangered cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus in Africa. Haas shows that scientific information (e.g., population monitoring and population viability analyses reaches decision makers through multiple pathways, each of which can modify or reinterpret the information signal. A predictive understanding of the country’s political as well as ecological processes is essential. Hass uses a system of interacting ecological and political

  18. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  19. Population Dynamics of the East African Sleeping Sickness ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mathematical models of the East African sleeping sickness epidemiology are presented. This paper is aimed at modelling the dynamics of the disease as it affects the human and domestic animal populations. The mathematical model is extended to include the contact rate of the tsetse flies with the wild park animals that ...

  20. The Onchorcerciasis Disease: Population Dynamics of Its Host And ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Onchocerciasis disease is a debilitating disease that hampers the well-being and productive capacity of an affected person. In this work, we looked at the population dynamics of the Host (Man), the Vector (Simulium Damnosium – the Blackfly ) and the possible Microfilaria output of the worm in the Host via Mathematical ...

  1. Population Dynamics of the Giant African River Prawn ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    Growth, mortality, recruitment, yield-per-recruit and present rate of exploitation of the African river prawn Macrobrachium vollenhovenii were ... The present study is the first report on the population dynamics of the species in the Cross River Estuary,. Nigeria, and provides ..... Sea Demersal Fish Comm. 1979/G/24, 26 pp.

  2. Population dynamics of the invasive fish, Gambusia affinis , in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The alien invasive Gambusia affinis is one of the most widely introduced fish species on the planet, and has established in freshwater ecosystems across South Africa. The invasion ecology and, in particular, the population dynamics of the species in this country are, however, poorly understood. In this study the relative ...

  3. Binary Populations and Stellar Dynamics in Young Clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanbeveren, D.; Belkus, H.; Van Bever, J.; Mennekens, N.

    2008-06-01

    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, η Car, ζ Pup, γ2 Velorum and WR 140.

  4. Population Dynamics of Southern Pine Beetle in Forest Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew Birt

    2011-01-01

    Southern pine beetle (SPB) is an important pest of Southeastern United States pine forests. Periodic regional outbreaks are characterized by localized areas of tree mortality (infestations) surrounded by areas with little or no damage. Ultimately, this spatiotemporal pattern of tree mortality is driven by the dynamics of SPB populations—more specifically, by rates of...

  5. Termite Population Dynamics in Arenic Kandiudults as Influenced by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Termites have been identified as one of the major pests of cassava in Nigeria especially on infested soils. Termite Population Dynamics in Arenic Kandiudults as Influenced by Tillage and Organic Manure Sources in a Cassava Farm in Owerri, Southeastern Nigeria, was investigated in this study. Three years of field trials ...

  6. Breeding seasonality and population dynamics of the catfish Schilbe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Twelve consecutive months length frequency data (N = 6999) and FiSAT software were used in the study of the dynamics of exploited population the catfish Schilbe mystus in the Cross River Nigeria. Variation in monthly mean gonadosmtic index showed two peaks, March and September and this indicates that the species ...

  7. The population dynamics of the estuarine isopod Exosphaeroma ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The population dynamics of the estuarine isopod, Exosphaeroma hylocoetes, was investigated monthly from February 2006 to August 2007 in three temporarily open/closed Eastern Cape estuaries, the East and West Kleinemonde and Kasouga Estuaries. Mean isopod abundances and biomasses ranged between 0 and ...

  8. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

  9. COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES USED IN STUDYING LEPIDOPTERA POPULATION DYNAMICS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Four methods (light traps, foliage samples, canvas bands, and gypsy moth egg mass surveys) that are used to study the population dynamics of foliage-feeding Lepidoptera were compared for 10 species, including gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L. Samples were collected weekly at 12 sit...

  10. Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of Bacillus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of Bacillus thuringiensis in agricultural and botanic garden soils of India. ... The PDF file you selected should load here if your Web browser has a PDF reader plug-in installed (for example, a recent version of Adobe Acrobat Reader). If you would like more information about ...

  11. Population dynamics and spatial behaviour of Microtus tatricus (Arvicolinae, Rodentia)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rudá, M.; Kocian, Ľ.; Martínková, Natália; Žiak, D.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 55, č. 1 (2010), s. 85-88 ISSN 0001-7051 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : Tatra vole * population dynamics * spatial activity Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.985, year: 2010

  12. Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field

  13. Predicting population and community dynamics: the type of aggregation matters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meyer, K.; Schiffers, T.; Münkemüller, T.; Schädler, M.; Calabrese, J.; Basset, A.; Breulmann, M.; Duquesne, S.; Hidding, B.; Huth, A.; Schöb, C.; Voorde, van de T.F.J.

    2010-01-01

    When investigating complex ecological dynamics at the population or community level, we necessarily need to abstract and aggregate ecological information. The way in which information is aggregated may be crucial for the outcome of the study. In this paper, we suggest that in addition to the

  14. Inmate Population Dynamics at the United States Disciplinary Barracks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-08-04

    Prisoner population growth. 2. Prisoner popula- . tion forecasting. 3. Military prisoner overcrowding at USDB. 4. Elements of prisoner population . 5...of decisions in the Army. This thesis was initiated as a result not of overwhelming problems of overcrowding or of any particular problems or crises...AUG 83 UNCLASSIFIED F/il 5/9 N 12.2 Ln 1,6 1 2 .0 I~ii~ L 111U2 ICROCOP RSLUINTSCHR NAIOALBUEA F TAD336 1%- 2> Inmate Population Dynamics at the United

  15. Radial propagation in population dynamics with density-dependent diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngamsaad, Waipot

    2014-01-01

    Population dynamics that evolve in a radial symmetric geometry are investigated. The nonlinear reaction-diffusion model, which depends on population density, is employed as the governing equation for this system. The approximate analytical solution to this equation is found. It shows that the population density evolves from the initial state and propagates in a traveling-wave-like manner for a long-time scale. If the distance is insufficiently long, the curvature has an ineluctable influence on the density profile and front speed. In comparison, the analytical solution is in agreement with the numerical solution.

  16. Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J

    2014-12-21

    Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Population dynamics of king eiders breeding in northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentzen, Rebecca L.; Powell, Abby N.

    2012-01-01

    The North American population of king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) has declined by more than 50% since the late 1970s for unknown reasons. King eiders spend most of their lives in remote areas, forcing managers to make regulatory and conservation decisions based on very little information. We incorporated available published estimates of vital rates with new estimates to build a female, stage-based matrix population model for king eiders and examine the processes underlying population dynamics of king eiders breeding at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, on the coastal plain of northern Alaska and wintering around the Bering Sea (2001–2010). We predicted a decreasing population (λ = 0.981, 95% CI: 0.978–0.985), and that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival (sensitivity = 0.92). Low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity (variation in ducking survival accounted for 66% of retrospective variation in λ). Adult survival was high (0.94) and invariant (σ = 0.0002, 95% CI: 0.0000–0.0007); however, catastrophic events could have a major impact and we need to consider how to mitigate and manage threats to adult survival. A hypothetical oil spill affecting breeding females in a primary spring staging area resulted in a severe population decline; although, transient population dynamics were relatively stable. However, if no catastrophic events occur, the more variable reproductive parameters (duckling and nest survival) may be more responsive to management actions.

  18. Disentangling seasonal bacterioplankton population dynamics by high-frequency sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindh, Markus V; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Andersson, Anders F; Baltar, Federico; Hugerth, Luisa W; Lundin, Daniel; Muthusamy, Saraladevi; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone

    2015-07-01

    Multiyear comparisons of bacterioplankton succession reveal that environmental conditions drive community shifts with repeatable patterns between years. However, corresponding insight into bacterioplankton dynamics at a temporal resolution relevant for detailed examination of variation and characteristics of specific populations within years is essentially lacking. During 1 year, we collected 46 samples in the Baltic Sea for assessing bacterial community composition by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing (nearly twice weekly during productive season). Beta-diversity analysis showed distinct clustering of samples, attributable to seemingly synchronous temporal transitions among populations (populations defined by 97% 16S rRNA gene sequence identity). A wide spectrum of bacterioplankton dynamics was evident, where divergent temporal patterns resulted both from pronounced differences in relative abundance and presence/absence of populations. Rates of change in relative abundance calculated for individual populations ranged from 0.23 to 1.79 day(-1) . Populations that were persistently dominant, transiently abundant or generally rare were found in several major bacterial groups, implying evolution has favoured a similar variety of life strategies within these groups. These findings suggest that high temporal resolution sampling allows constraining the timescales and frequencies at which distinct populations transition between being abundant or rare, thus potentially providing clues about physical, chemical or biological forcing on bacterioplankton community structure. © 2014 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. [Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

    2014-09-01

    Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

  20. Understanding water: Molecular dynamics simulations of solubilized and crystallized myoglobin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Gu; Garcia, A.E.; Schoenborn, B.P.

    1994-01-01

    Molecular dynamics simulations were performed on CO myoglobin to evaluate the stability of the bound water molecules as determined in a neutron diffraction analysis. The myoglobin structure derived from the neutron analysis provided the starting coordinate set used in the simulations. The simulations show that only a few water molecules are tightly bound to protein atoms, while most solvent molecules are labile, breaking and reforming hydrogen bonds. Comparison between myoglobin in solution and in a single crystal highlighted some of the packing effects on the solvent structure and shows that water solvent plays an indispensable role in protein dynamics and structural stability. The described observations explain some of the differences in the experimental results of protein hydration as observed in NMR, neutron and X-ray diffraction studies

  1. Molecular Modeling of Enzyme Dynamics Towards Understanding Solvent Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wedberg, Nils Hejle Rasmus Ingemar

    ) in water and organic solvents. The effects of solvent on structural and dynamical enzyme properties are studied, and special attention is given to how enzyme properties in organic solvents are affected by the hydration level, which is shown to be related to the water activity. In experimental studies...... of enzyme kinetics in non-aqueous media, it has been a fruitful approach to fix the enzyme hydration level by controlling the water activity of the medium. In this work, a protocol is therefore developed for determining the water activity in non-aqueous protein simulations. The method relies on determining......This thesis describes the development of a molecular simulation methodology to study properties of enzymes in non-aqueous media at fixed thermodynamic water activities. The methodology is applied in a molecular dynamics study of the industrially important enzyme Candida antarctica lipase B (CALB...

  2. Central-marginal population dynamics in species invasions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinfeng eGuo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The species’ range limits and associated central-marginal (C-M; i.e., from species range center to margin population dynamics continue to draw increasing attention because of their importance for current emerging issues such as biotic invasions and epidemic diseases under global change. Previous studies have mainly focused on species borders and C-M process in natural settings for native species. More recently, growing efforts are devoted to examine the C-M patterns and process for invasive species partly due to their relatively short history, highly dynamic populations, and management implications. Here I examine recent findings and information gaps related to (1 the C-M population dynamics linked to species invasions, and (2 the possible effects of climate change and land use on the C-M patterns and processes. Unlike most native species that are relatively stable (some even having contracting populations or ranges, many invasive species are still spreading fast and form new distribution or abundance centers. Because of the strong nonlinearity of population demographic or vital rates (i.e. birth, death, immigration and emigration across the C-M gradients and the increased complexity of species ranges due to habitat fragmentation, multiple introductions, range-wide C-M comparisons and simulation involving multiple vital rates are needed in the future.

  3. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

    2011-08-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of

  4. Understanding volatility dynamics in the EU-ETS market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanin, Maria Eugenia; Mansanet-Bataller, Maria; Violante, Francesco

    We study the short-term price behavior of Phase 2 EU emission allowances. We model returns and volatility dynamics, and we demonstrate that a standard ARMAX-GARCH framework is inadequate for this modeling and that the gaussianity assumption is rejected due to a number of outliers. To improve the ...... periods. Thus, authorities face a trade off between disseminating information effectively and promoting market stability....

  5. Understanding Patchy Landscape Dynamics: Towards a Landscape Language

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaucherel, Cédric; Boudon, Frédéric; Houet, Thomas; Castets, Mathieu; Godin, Christophe

    2012-01-01

    Patchy landscapes driven by human decisions and/or natural forces are still a challenge to be understood and modelled. No attempt has been made up to now to describe them by a coherent framework and to formalize landscape changing rules. Overcoming this lacuna was our first objective here, and this was largely based on the notion of Rewriting Systems, also called Formal Grammars. We used complicated scenarios of agricultural dynamics to model landscapes and to write their corresponding driving rule equations. Our second objective was to illustrate the relevance of this landscape language concept for landscape modelling through various grassland managements, with the final aim to assess their respective impacts on biological conservation. For this purpose, we made the assumptions that a higher grassland appearance frequency and higher land cover connectivity are favourable to species conservation. Ecological results revealed that dairy and beef livestock production systems are more favourable to wild species than is hog farming, although in different ways. Methodological results allowed us to efficiently model and formalize these landscape dynamics. This study demonstrates the applicability of the Rewriting System framework to the modelling of agricultural landscapes and, hopefully, to other patchy landscapes. The newly defined grammar is able to explain changes that are neither necessarily local nor Markovian, and opens a way to analytical modelling of landscape dynamics. PMID:23049935

  6. Past and present population dynamics of narwhals Monodon monoceros

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garde, Eva

    , meat and mattak. Concerns have been raised about the sustainability of the hunt, which have led to implementation of hunting quotas in both countries. Hunting quotas are usually calculated from population dynamics models where survival and reproductive rates, based on reliable age distributions...... of both marine and terrestrial mammals, although the technique still requires both optimization and further validation. In addition, the thesis includes a study of past population dynamics in narwhals. We have investigated the genetic response to climate change and the emographic history of the narwhal......, are vital. Estimation of life history parameters for the narwhal has previously been hindered by lack of a reliable age estimation technique. The Aspartic Acid Racemization (AAR) technique is a relatively novel method that I have applied to narwhals. This PhD thesis focuses, in part, on current population...

  7. Understanding the dynamics of parent involvement in schooling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Erna Kinsey

    themselves pose barriers for both children and parents in the schooling system. Furthermore, results highlighted the central role that schools can play in increasing the degree of parental support, as well as ways in which to understand the support needed by these parents. The stress on parents and their relationships with ...

  8. Revisiting Hele-Shaw dynamics to better understand beach evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhove, Onno; van der Horn, Avraham/Bram; van der Horn, A.J.; van der Meer, Roger M.; Gagarina, Elena; Zweers, W.; Thornton, Anthony Richard

    Wave action, particularly during storms, drives the evo lution of beaches. Beach evolution by non-linear break ing waves is poorly understood due to its three-dimensional character, the range of scales involved, and our limited understanding of particle-wave interactions. We show how a novel,

  9. Floater dynamics can explain positive patterns of density-dependent fecundity in animal populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penteriani, Vincenzo; Otalora, Fermín; Ferrer, Miguel

    2006-11-01

    After some 70 years of debate on density-dependent regulation of animal populations, there is still poor understanding of where spatial and temporal density dependence occurs. Clearly defining the portion of the population that shapes density-dependent patterns may help to solve some of the ambiguities that encircle density dependence and its patterns. In fact, individuals of the same species and population can show different dynamics and behaviors depending on their locations (e.g., breeding vs. dispersal areas). Considering this form of intrapopulation heterogeneity may improve our understanding of density dependence and population dynamics in general. We present the results of individual-based simulations on a metapopulation of the Spanish imperial eagle Aquila adalberti. Our results suggest that high rates of floater mortality within settlement areas can determine a shift in the classical relationship (from negative to positive) between the fecundity (i.e., fledglings per pair) and density (i.e., number of pairs) of the breeding population. Finally, we proved that different initial conditions affecting the breeder portion of the population can lead to the same values of fecundity. Our results can represent a starting point for new and more complex approaches studying the regulation of animal populations, where the forgotten and invisible component--the floater--is taken into account.

  10. Population Spatial Dynamics of Larix potaninii in Alpine Treeline Ecotone in the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China

    OpenAIRE

    Jia’nan Cui; Jihong Qin; Hui Sun

    2017-01-01

    The high-altitude treeline is known to be sensitive to climate variability, and is thus considered as a bio-monitoring indicator of climate change. However, our understanding of the population dynamics and the cumulative climate-change effects on the alpine treeline ecotone in recent decades is limited. Here, we investigated the population dynamics of Larix potainii on the south- and north-facing slopes in the alpine treeline ecotone in the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China, includ...

  11. Understanding the Offender/Environment Dynamic for Computer Crimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willison, Robert Andrew

    2005-01-01

    practices by possiblyhighlighting new areas for safeguard implementation. To help facilitate a greaterunderstanding of the offender/environment dynamic, this paper assesses the feasibilityof applying criminological theory to the IS security context. More specifically, threetheories are advanced, which focus...... on the offender's behaviour in a criminal setting. Drawing on an account of the Barings Bank collapse, events highlighted in the casestudy are used to assess whether concepts central to the theories are supported by thedata. It is noted that while one of the theories is to be found wanting in terms ofconceptual...

  12. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  13. Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, Judith; Newman, Karen; Mayhew, Susannah

    2010-06-01

    Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.

  14. Population Dynamics of the Stationary Phase Utilizing the ARGOS Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Algarni, S.; Charest, A. J.; Iannacchione, G. S.

    2015-03-01

    The Area Recorded Generalized Optical Scattering (ARGOS) approach to light scattering employs large image capture array allowing for a well-defined geometry in which images may be manipulated to extract structure with intensity at a specific scattering wave vector (I(q)) and dynamics with intensity at a specific scattering wave vector over time (I (q,t)). The ARGOS method provides morphological dynamics noninvasively over a long time period and allows for a variety of aqueous conditions. This is important because traditional growth models do not provide for conditions similar to the natural environment. The present study found that the population dynamics of bacteria do not follow a traditional growth model and that the ARGOS method allowed for the observation of bacterial changes in terms of individual particles and population dynamics in real time. The observations of relative total intensity suggest that there is no stationary phase and that the bacterial population demonstrates sinusoidal type patterns consistently subsequent to the log phase growth. These observation were compared to shape changes by modeling fractal dimension and size changes by modeling effective radius.

  15. Visualizing and Understanding Socio-Environmental Dynamics in Baltimore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitchik, B. F.; Omeara, K.; Guikema, S.; Scott, A.; Bessho, A.; Logan, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    The City of Baltimore, like any city, is the sum of its component neighborhoods, institutions, businesses, cultures, and, ultimately, its people. It is also an organism in its own right, with distinct geography, history, infrastructure, and environments that shape its residents even as it is shaped by them. Sometimes these interactions are obvious but often they are not; while basic economic patterns are widely documented, the distribution of socio-spatial and environmental connections often hides below the surface, as does the potential that those connections hold. Here we present results of a collaborative initiative on the geography, design, and policy of socio-environmental dynamics of Baltimore. Geospatial data derived from satellite imagery, demographic databases, social media feeds, infrastructure plans, and in situ environmental networks, among other sources, are applied to generate an interactive portrait of Baltimore City's social, health, and well-being dynamics. The layering of data serves as a platform for visualizing the interconnectedness of the City and as a database for modeling risk interactions, vulnerabilities, and strengths within and between communities. This presentation will provide an overview of project findings and highlight linkages to education and policy.

  16. Understanding Social Contagion in Adoption Processes Using Dynamic Social Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Mauricio; Armelini, Guillermo; Salvaj, Erica

    2015-01-01

    There are many studies in the marketing and diffusion literature of the conditions in which social contagion affects adoption processes. Yet most of these studies assume that social interactions do not change over time, even though actors in social networks exhibit different likelihoods of being influenced across the diffusion period. Rooted in physics and epidemiology theories, this study proposes a Susceptible Infectious Susceptible (SIS) model to assess the role of social contagion in adoption processes, which takes changes in social dynamics over time into account. To study the adoption over a span of ten years, the authors used detailed data sets from a community of consumers and determined the importance of social contagion, as well as how the interplay of social and non-social influences from outside the community drives adoption processes. Although social contagion matters for diffusion, it is less relevant in shaping adoption when the study also includes social dynamics among members of the community. This finding is relevant for managers and entrepreneurs who trust in word-of-mouth marketing campaigns whose effect may be overestimated if marketers fail to acknowledge variations in social interactions.

  17. Understanding Social Contagion in Adoption Processes Using Dynamic Social Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Herrera

    Full Text Available There are many studies in the marketing and diffusion literature of the conditions in which social contagion affects adoption processes. Yet most of these studies assume that social interactions do not change over time, even though actors in social networks exhibit different likelihoods of being influenced across the diffusion period. Rooted in physics and epidemiology theories, this study proposes a Susceptible Infectious Susceptible (SIS model to assess the role of social contagion in adoption processes, which takes changes in social dynamics over time into account. To study the adoption over a span of ten years, the authors used detailed data sets from a community of consumers and determined the importance of social contagion, as well as how the interplay of social and non-social influences from outside the community drives adoption processes. Although social contagion matters for diffusion, it is less relevant in shaping adoption when the study also includes social dynamics among members of the community. This finding is relevant for managers and entrepreneurs who trust in word-of-mouth marketing campaigns whose effect may be overestimated if marketers fail to acknowledge variations in social interactions.

  18. The adaptive potential of maternal stress exposure in regulating population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheriff, Michael J

    2015-03-01

    Ecologists, evolutionary biologists and biomedical researchers are investing great effort in understanding the impact maternal stress may have on offspring phenotypes. Bian et al. advance this field by providing evidence that density-induced maternal stress programs offspring phenotypes, resulting in direct consequences on their fitness and population dynamics, but doing so in a context-dependent manner. They suggest that intrinsic state alterations induced by maternal stress may be one ecological factor generating delayed density-dependent effects. This research highlights the connection between maternal stress and population dynamics, and the importance of understanding the adaptive potential of such effects in a context-dependent manner. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

  19. Lineage grammars: describing, simulating and analyzing population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiro, Adam; Cardelli, Luca; Shapiro, Ehud

    2014-07-21

    Precise description of the dynamics of biological processes would enable the mathematical analysis and computational simulation of complex biological phenomena. Languages such as Chemical Reaction Networks and Process Algebras cater for the detailed description of interactions among individuals and for the simulation and analysis of ensuing behaviors of populations. However, often knowledge of such interactions is lacking or not available. Yet complete oblivion to the environment would make the description of any biological process vacuous. Here we present a language for describing population dynamics that abstracts away detailed interaction among individuals, yet captures in broad terms the effect of the changing environment, based on environment-dependent Stochastic Tree Grammars (eSTG). It is comprised of a set of stochastic tree grammar transition rules, which are context-free and as such abstract away specific interactions among individuals. Transition rule probabilities and rates, however, can depend on global parameters such as population size, generation count, and elapsed time. We show that eSTGs conveniently describe population dynamics at multiple levels including cellular dynamics, tissue development and niches of organisms. Notably, we show the utilization of eSTG for cases in which the dynamics is regulated by environmental factors, which affect the fate and rate of decisions of the different species. eSTGs are lineage grammars, in the sense that execution of an eSTG program generates the corresponding lineage trees, which can be used to analyze the evolutionary and developmental history of the biological system under investigation. These lineage trees contain a representation of the entire events history of the system, including the dynamics that led to the existing as well as to the extinct individuals. We conclude that our suggested formalism can be used to easily specify, simulate and analyze complex biological systems, and supports modular

  20. Understanding Dynamic Competitive Technology Diffusion in Electronic Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Cheng; Song, Peijian; Xu, Yunjie; Xue, Ling

    The extant literature on information technology (IT) diffusion has largely treated technology diffusion as a generic and independent process. This study, in contrast, examines the diffusion of different IT products with brand differentiation and competition. Drawing upon existing theories of product diffusion, we propose a research model to capture the dynamics of the competitive diffusion of web-based IT products and validate it with longitudinal field data of e-business platforms. Our findings suggest that IT product diffusion can be better predicted by a competitive model than by an independent-diffusion-process model. This research extends IT research to the context of competitive diffusion and provides practitioners an effective model to predict the dissemination of their products. The research also suggests the existence of asymmetric interactions among competing products, prompting scholars and practitioners to pay attention to the influence of competing products when making forecast of their product market.

  1. Evolution of Secondary Software Businesses: Understanding Industry Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyrväinen, Pasi; Warsta, Juhani; Seppänen, Veikko

    Primary software industry originates from IBM's decision to unbundle software-related computer system development activities to external partners. This kind of outsourcing from an enterprise internal software development activity is a common means to start a new software business serving a vertical software market. It combines knowledge of the vertical market process with competence in software development. In this research, we present and analyze the key figures of the Finnish secondary software industry, in order to quantify its interaction with the primary software industry during the period of 2000-2003. On the basis of the empirical data, we present a model for evolution of a secondary software business, which makes explicit the industry dynamics. It represents the shift from internal software developed for competitive advantage to development of products supporting standard business processes on top of standardized technologies. We also discuss the implications for software business strategies in each phase.

  2. Understanding the dynamic ionospheric signature of the plasmapause (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moldwin, M.; Sibanda, P.; Zou, S.; Yizengaw, E.

    2010-12-01

    The equatorial edge of the mid-latitude trough has been shown to be an ionospheric signature of the plasmapause from both ground-based and space-based observations. However, identifying the trough is not always possible due to broad latitudinal density gradients, local time and seasonal effects, and storm and substorm dynamics. We review the current methods of identifying the trough from ground and space-based observations and describe the main deficiencies in these methods especially for tracking the trough/plasmapause during storms and substorms. We discuss the ionospheric signature of plasmaspheric plumes and their relationship to trough/plasmapause signatures. We conclude with some new multi-instrument observations that help clarify the ionospheric trough signature during geomagnetically active periods.

  3. Modeling Dynamic Food Choice Processes to Understand Dietary Intervention Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcum, Christopher Steven; Goldring, Megan R; McBride, Colleen M; Persky, Susan

    2018-02-17

    Meal construction is largely governed by nonconscious and habit-based processes that can be represented as a collection of in dividual, micro-level food choices that eventually give rise to a final plate. Despite this, dietary behavior intervention research rarely captures these micro-level food choice processes, instead measuring outcomes at aggregated levels. This is due in part to a dearth of analytic techniques to model these dynamic time-series events. The current article addresses this limitation by applying a generalization of the relational event framework to model micro-level food choice behavior following an educational intervention. Relational event modeling was used to model the food choices that 221 mothers made for their child following receipt of an information-based intervention. Participants were randomized to receive either (a) control information; (b) childhood obesity risk information; (c) childhood obesity risk information plus a personalized family history-based risk estimate for their child. Participants then made food choices for their child in a virtual reality-based food buffet simulation. Micro-level aspects of the built environment, such as the ordering of each food in the buffet, were influential. Other dynamic processes such as choice inertia also influenced food selection. Among participants receiving the strongest intervention condition, choice inertia decreased and the overall rate of food selection increased. Modeling food selection processes can elucidate the points at which interventions exert their influence. Researchers can leverage these findings to gain insight into nonconscious and uncontrollable aspects of food selection that influence dietary outcomes, which can ultimately improve the design of dietary interventions.

  4. Understanding the dynamic interactions driving Zambian health centre performance: a case-based health systems analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topp, Stephanie M; Chipukuma, Julien M; Hanefeld, Johanna

    2015-01-01

    Background Despite being central to achieving improved population health outcomes, primary health centres in low- and middle-income settings continue to underperform. Little research exists to adequately explain how and why this is the case. This study aimed to test the relevance and usefulness of an adapted conceptual framework for improving our understanding of the mechanisms and causal pathways influencing primary health centre performance. Methods A theory-driven, case-study approach was adopted. Four Zambian health centres were purposefully selected with case data including health-care worker interviews (n = 60); patient interviews (n = 180); direct observation of facility operations (2 weeks/centre) and key informant interviews (n = 14). Data were analysed to understand how the performance of each site was influenced by the dynamic interactions between system ‘hardware’ and ‘software’ acting on mechanisms of accountability. Findings Structural constraints including limited resources created challenging service environments in which work overload and stockouts were common. Health workers’ frustration with such conditions interacted with dissatisfaction with salary levels eroding service values and acting as a catalyst for different forms of absenteeism. Such behaviours exacerbated patient–provider ratios and increased the frequency of clinical and administrative shortcuts. Weak health information systems and lack of performance data undermined providers’ answerability to their employer and clients, and a lack of effective sanctions undermined supervisors’ ability to hold providers accountable for these transgressions. Weak answerability and enforceability contributed to a culture of impunity that masked and condoned weak service performance in all four sites. Conclusions Health centre performance is influenced by mechanisms of accountability, which are in turn shaped by dynamic interactions between system hardware and system software. Our

  5. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, C.R.; Leech, David; Van de Pol, M.

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that

  6. How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalkvist, Trine; Sibly, Richard; Topping, Christopher John

    2011-01-01

    to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered...

  7. Dynamic systems for everyone understanding how our world works

    CERN Document Server

    Ghosh, Asish

    2015-01-01

    This book is a study of the interactions between different types of systems, their environment, and their subsystems.  The author explains how basic systems principles are applied in engineered (mechanical, electromechanical, etc.) systems and then guides the reader to understand how the same principles can be applied to social, political, economic systems, as well as in everyday life.  Readers from a variety of disciplines will benefit from the understanding of system behaviors and will be able to apply those principles in various contexts.  The book includes many examples covering various types of systems.  The treatment of the subject is non-mathematical, and the book considers some of the latest concepts in the systems discipline, such as agent-based systems, optimization, and discrete events and procedures.  ·         Shows how system knowledge may be applied in many different areas without the need for deep mathematical knowledge; ·         Demonstrates how to model and simulate s...

  8. Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

    2007-04-01

    A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

  9. Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koons, David; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semi-arid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, we...... spring temperature could have a greater ‘relative effect’ on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife...... applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-year time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited strong potential to grow from low density (β0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible...

  10. Population dynamics in the high Arctic: Climate variations in time and space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendrichsen, Ditte Katrine

    Climatic factors profoundly influence the population dynamics, species interactions and demography of Arctic species. Analyses of the spatio-temporal dynamics within and across species are therefore necessary to understand and predict the responses of Arctic ecosystems to climatic variability......, and to unravel the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors on ecosystem functioning. This thesis considers how selected vertebrate species in a high Arctic ecosystem respond to climatic variability, using 13 years of data from the monitoring programme at Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland. The main focus...

  11. Understanding the major transitions in Quaternary climate dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willeit, Matteo; Ganopolski, Andrey

    2017-04-01

    Climate dynamics over the past 3 million years was characterized by strong variability associated with glacial cycles and several distinct regime changes. The Pliocene-Pleistocene Transition (PPT), which happened around 2.7 million years ago, was characterized by the appearance of the large continental ice sheets over Northern Eurasia and North America. For two million years after the PPT climate variability was dominated by relatively symmetric 40 kyr cycles. At around 1 million years ago the dominant mode of climate variability experienced a relatively rapid transition from 40 kyr to strongly asymmetric 100 kyr cycles of larger amplitude (Mid-Pleistocene Transition). Additionally, during the past 800 kyr there are clear differences between the earlier and the later glacial cycles with the last five cycles characterized by larger magnitude of variability (Mid-Brunhes Event). Here, we use the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 to explore possible mechanisms that could explain these regime shifts. CLIMBER-2 incorporates all major components of the Earth system - atmosphere, ocean, land surface, northern hemisphere ice sheets, terrestrial biota and soil carbon, marine biogeochemistry and aeolian dust. The model was optimally tuned to reproduce climate, ice volume and CO2 variability over the last 400,000 years. Using the same model version, we performed a large set of simulations covering the entire Quaternary (3 million years) starting from identical initial conditions and using a parallelization in time technique which consists of starting the model at different times (every 100,000 years) and running each simulation for 500,000 years. The Earth's orbital variations are the only prescribed radiative forcing. Several sets of the Northern Hemisphere orography and sediment thickness representing different stages of landscape evolution during the Quaternary are prescribed as boundary conditions for the ice sheet model and volcanic CO2 outgassing is

  12. The population dynamics of bacteria, phage and RM Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guet, Calin; Levin, Bruce; Pleska, Maros

    Viruses drive and mediate bacterial evolution as parasites and vectors of horizontal gene transfer, respectively. Temperate bacteriophages, defined by the ability to lysogenize a fraction of hosts and to transmit horizontally as well as vertically in the form of prophages, frequently carry genes that increase fitness or contribute to bacterial pathogenicity. Restriction-modification (RM) systems, which are widely diverse and ubiquitous among bacteria, can prevent infections leading to lysis, but their effect on lysogeny is not clear. We show that RM systems prevent lytic and lysogenic infections to the same extent and therefore represent a molecular barrier to prophage acquisition. Surprisingly, we find that this negative effect can be overcome and even reversed at the population level, as a consequence of dynamic interactions between viruses, hosts and RM systems. Thus the population dynamics of bacteria carrying RM systems impacts bacterial genome-wide evolution. .

  13. Dynamics of N-person snowdrift games in structured populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Marta D; Pinheiro, Flávio L; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M

    2012-12-21

    In many real-life situations, the completion of a task by a group toward achieving a common goal requires the cooperation of at least some of its members, who share the required workload. Such cases are conveniently modeled by the N-person snowdrift game, an example of a Public Goods Game. Here we study how an underlying network of contacts affects the evolutionary dynamics of collective action modeled in terms of such a Public Goods Game. We analyze the impact of different types of networks in the global, population-wide dynamics of cooperators and defectors. We show that homogeneous social structures enhance the chances of coordinating toward stable levels of cooperation, while heterogeneous network structures create multiple internal equilibria, departing significantly from the reference scenario of a well-mixed, structureless population. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Understanding the heavy-tailed dynamics in human behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Gordon J; Jones, Tim

    2015-06-01

    The recent availability of electronic data sets containing large volumes of communication data has made it possible to study human behavior on a larger scale than ever before. From this, it has been discovered that across a diverse range of data sets, the interevent times between consecutive communication events obey heavy-tailed power law dynamics. Explaining this has proved controversial, and two distinct hypotheses have emerged. The first holds that these power laws are fundamental, and arise from the mechanisms such as priority queuing that humans use to schedule tasks. The second holds that they are statistical artifacts which only occur in aggregated data when features such as circadian rhythms and burstiness are ignored. We use a large social media data set to test these hypotheses, and find that although models that incorporate circadian rhythms and burstiness do explain part of the observed heavy tails, there is residual unexplained heavy-tail behavior which suggests a more fundamental cause. Based on this, we develop a quantitative model of human behavior which improves on existing approaches and gives insight into the mechanisms underlying human interactions.

  15. A system dynamics approach to understanding the One Health concept.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tai Xie

    Full Text Available There have been many terms used to describe the One Health concept, including movement, strategy, framework, agenda, approach, among others. However, the inter-relationships of the disciplines engaged in the One Health concept have not been well described. To identify and better elucidate the internal feedback mechanisms of One Health, we employed a system dynamics approach. First, a systematic literature review was conducted via searches in PubMed, Web of Knowledge, and ProQuest with the search terms: 'One Health' and (concept* or approach*. In addition, we used the HistCite® tool to add significant articles on One Health to the library. Then, of the 2368 articles identified, 19 were selected for evaluating the inter-relationships of disciplines engaged in One Health. Herein, we report a visually rich, theoretical model regarding interactions of various disciplines and complex problem descriptors engaged in One Health problem solving. This report provides a conceptual framework for future descriptions of the interdisciplinary engagements involved in One Health.

  16. A dynamical system perspective to understanding badminton singles game play.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Jia Yi; Seifert, Ludovic; Hérault, Romain; Chia, Shannon Jing Yi; Lee, Miriam Chang Yi

    2014-02-01

    By altering the task constraints of cooperative and competitive game contexts in badminton, insights can be obtained from a dynamical systems perspective to investigate the underlying processes that results in either a gradual shift or transition of playing patterns. Positional data of three pairs of skilled female badminton players (average age 20.5±1.38years) were captured and analyzed. Local correlation coefficient, which provides information on the relationship of players' displacement data, between each pair of players was computed for angle and distance from base position. Speed scalar product was in turn established from speed vectors of the players. The results revealed two patterns of playing behaviors (i.e., in-phase and anti-phase patterns) for movement displacement. Anti-phase relation was the dominant coupling pattern for speed scalar relationships among the pairs of players. Speed scalar product, as a collective variable, was different between cooperative and competitive plays with a greater variability in amplitude seen in competitive plays leading to a winning point. The findings from this study provide evidence for increasing stroke variability to perturb existing stable patterns of play and highlights the potential for speed scalar product to be a collective variable to distinguish different patterns of play (e.g., cooperative and competitive). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. [Population dynamics of oligosporous actinomycetes in Chernozem soil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zenova, G M; Mikhaĭlova, N V; Zviagintsev, D G

    2000-01-01

    Investigation of the dynamics of an oligosporous actinomycete population in chernozem soil in the course of succession induced by soil wetting allowed us to reveal the time intervals and conditions optimal for the isolation of particular oligosporous actinomycetes. Saccharopolysporas and microbisporas proved to be best isolated in the early and late stages of succession, whereas actinomycetes of the subgroup Actinomadura and saccharomonosporas could be best isolated in the early and intermediate stages of succession.

  18. Development of paradigms for the dynamics of structured populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-10-01

    This is a technical progress report on the dynamics of predator-prey systems in a patchy environment. A new phenomenon that might contribute to outbreaks in systems of discrete patches has been determined using a discrete time model with both spatial and age structure. A model for a single species in a patchy environment with migration, local population growth and disasters with in patches has been formulated and a brief description is included.

  19. Scaling up population dynamic processes in a ladybird–aphid

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Houdková, Kateřina; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 48, - (2006), s. 323-332 ISSN 1438-3896 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GEDIV/06/E013; GA MŠk(CZ) LC06073; GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA6087301; GA ČR(CZ) GD206/03/H034 Keywords : Aphids * Egg window * Ladybirds * Metapopulation * Model * Population dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.534, year: 2006

  20. A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

  1. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Freire

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  2. Impact of environmental colored noise in single-species population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanio, Tommaso; Hidalgo, Jorge; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2017-10-01

    Variability on external conditions has important consequences for the dynamics and the organization of biological systems. In many cases, the characteristic timescale of environmental changes as well as their correlations play a fundamental role in the way living systems adapt and respond to it. A proper mathematical approach to understand population dynamics, thus, requires approaches more refined than, e.g., simple white-noise approximations. To shed further light onto this problem, in this paper we propose a unifying framework based on different analytical and numerical tools available to deal with "colored" environmental noise. In particular, we employ a "unified colored noise approximation" to map the original problem into an effective one with white noise, and then we apply a standard path integral approach to gain analytical understanding. For the sake of specificity, we present our approach using as a guideline a variation of the contact process—which can also be seen as a birth-death process of the Malthus-Verhulst class—where the propagation or birth rate varies stochastically in time. Our approach allows us to tackle in a systematic manner some of the relevant questions concerning population dynamics under environmental variability, such as determining the stationary population density, establishing the conditions under which a population may become extinct, and estimating extinction times. We focus on the emerging phase diagram and its possible phase transitions, underlying how these are affected by the presence of environmental noise time-correlations.

  3. Border Collision Bifurcations in a Generalized Model of Population Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilia M. Ladino

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the dynamics of a generalized discrete time population model of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture. This generalization, which is inspired by other approaches and real data that one can find in literature, consists in considering no restriction for the value of the two key parameters appearing in the model, that is, the natural death rate and the mortality rate due to fishing activity. In the more general case the feasibility of the system has been preserved by posing opportune formulas for the piecewise map defining the model. The resulting two-dimensional nonlinear map is not smooth, though continuous, as its definition changes as any border is crossed in the phase plane. Hence, techniques from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamical systems must be applied to show that, due to the existence of borders, abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of population sizes and multistability emerge. The main novelty of the present contribution with respect to the previous ones is that, while using real data, richer dynamics are produced, such as fluctuations and multistability. Such new evidences are of great interest in biology since new strategies to preserve the survival of the species can be suggested.

  4. [Analysis on age structure and dynamics of Kindonia uniflora populations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenhui; Li, Jingxia; Li, Hong; Liu, Xiangjun

    2004-04-01

    Kindonia uniflora is a perennial clone herbaceous plant, and also, a native endangered plant in China. This paper studied its age structure, life table and survivorship curve in different habitats in Taibai mountain area. The results indicated that the age structure and dynamics of K. uniflora populations in the Betula utilis forest at altitude 2500-2700 m, in the Abies fargesii forest at altitude 2700-2900 m, and in the Larix chinensis forest at altitude 2900-3100 m had the similar pattern and developing tendency. The number of younger ramets at 1-2 years old or older than 5 years was less, and the number of ramets at 3-5 years old was the highest in the age structures. The negative values of dx (dead number), qx (mortality rate) and Kx (Killing rate) in the life table showed the increasing rate of the population sizes during the age stage. The survivorship curve of K. uniflora populations in different habitats belonged to Deevey C after 3-5 years old. The mortality rate of populations during 5-10 years stage was higher, and was stable after 10 years old. As for the characters of asexual propagation and clone growth, the rhizomes of the populations were in humus of soil, and developed and expanded as guerilla line style. During growth season, only one leaf grew above ground at every inter-node, and the population growth and development were rarely influenced by external factors. The forest communities, such as Betula utilis, Abies fargesii and Larix chinensis forest, in which K. uniflora populations lived, were at middle or higher mountain, where there were rarely disturbance from human being. Therefore, the habitats for K. uniflora populations to live were relatively stable. As the altitude increased, the disturbances from human being became less, the density of K. uniflora populations increased, the life cycle expanded, the peak of population death delayed, and the population living strategy changed to adapt to the habitats. K. uniflora populations preferred to

  5. Understanding Magmatic Plumbing System Dynamics at Fernandina Island, Galapagos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varga, K. C.; McGuire, M.; Geist, D.; Harpp, K. S.

    2015-12-01

    Fernandina is the most active Galápagos volcano, and is located closest to the seismically defined hotspot. Allan and Simkin (2000) observed that the subaerial edifice is constructed of homogeneous basalts (Mg# = 49 ± 2) with highly variable plagioclase phenocryst contents and sparse olivine. Geist et al. (2006) proposed a magmatic plumbing system in which the volcano is supplied by interconnected sills, the shallowest of which is density-stratified: olivine and pyroxene are concentrated at greater depths, whereas less dense plagioclase mush is higher in the sill. Consequently, olivine-rich lava erupts laterally during submarine events, but plagioclase-rich lava supplies subaerial vents. To test this hypothesis, we examine lavas erupted in 1995, 2005, and 2009. These SW flank eruptions emerged alternatively from en echelon radial fissures on the lower flanks and circumferential fissures near the caldera rim. The 1995 radial fissure unzipped downslope and then formed a cone 4 km from the coast, sending flows to the ocean. In 2005, circumferential fissures erupted five flows south of the 1995 fissure. As in 1995, the 2009 fissures opened down the SW flank before focusing to a cone near the 1995 vents, producing 6 km-long flows that also reached the ocean. By correlating plagioclase crystal size distribution and morphologies with single event chronological sequences, we examine Fernandina's magmatic plumbing system. Modal plagioclase in 1995 lava decreases (20% to <5%) throughout the middle eruptive phase. Early 2005 samples are nearly aphyric (Chadwick et al., 2010), with 1-2% plagioclase. The 2009 eruption has reduced plagioclase, similar to mid-1995 samples. Preliminary observations suggest that less plagioclase-rich mush is being flushed out during early-to-medial event sequences, whereas plag phenocrysts are transported more during later phases. Plausible plumbing dynamics suggest a zone of plagioclase-rich mush that is eroded and incorporated into radial

  6. Recent advances in understanding climate, glacier and river dynamics in high mountain Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Immerzeel, W.

    2016-12-01

    The water cycle in the Himalaya is poorly understood because of its extreme topography that results in complex interactions between climate, water stored in snow and glaciers and the hydrological processes. Hydrological extremes in the greater Himalayas regularly cause great damage, while high mountain Asia also supplies water to over 25% of the global population. So, the stakes are high and an accurate understanding of the Himalayan water cycle is imperative. The hydrology of the greater Himalayas is only marginally resolved due to the intricacy of monsoon dynamics, the poorly quantified dependence on the cryosphere and the physical constraints of doing research in high-altitude and generally inaccessible terrain. However, in recent years significant scientific advances have been made in field monitoring, modelling and remote sensing and the latest progress and outstanding challenges will be presented for three related fields. First focus will be on recent learnings about high altitude climate dynamics and the interaction between the atmosphere and the extreme mountain topography. Secondly, recent advances in how climate controls key glacio-hydrological processes in high-altitude catchments will be discussed with a particular focus on debris covered glaciers. Thirdly, new developments in glacio-hydrological modelling and approaches to climate change impact assessments will be reviewed. Finally, the outstanding scientific challenges will be synthesized that need to be addressed to fully close the high mountain water cycle and to be able to reduce the uncertainty in future projections of water availability and the occurrence of extreme events in high mountain Asia.

  7. Understanding the group dynamics and success of teams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klug, Michael; Bagrow, James P.

    2016-01-01

    Complex problems often require coordinated group effort and can consume significant resources, yet our understanding of how teams form and succeed has been limited by a lack of large-scale, quantitative data. We analyse activity traces and success levels for approximately 150 000 self-organized, online team projects. While larger teams tend to be more successful, workload is highly focused across the team, with only a few members performing most work. We find that highly successful teams are significantly more focused than average teams of the same size, that their members have worked on more diverse sets of projects, and the members of highly successful teams are more likely to be core members or ‘leads’ of other teams. The relations between team success and size, focus and especially team experience cannot be explained by confounding factors such as team age, external contributions from non-team members, nor by group mechanisms such as social loafing. Taken together, these features point to organizational principles that may maximize the success of collaborative endeavours. PMID:27152217

  8. Dynamic systems for everyone understanding how our world works

    CERN Document Server

    Ghosh, Asish

    2017-01-01

    Systems are everywhere and we are surrounded by them. We are a complex amalgam of systems that enable us to interact with an endless array of external systems in our daily lives. They are electrical, mechanical, social, biological, and many other types that control our environment and our well-being. By appreciating how these systems function, will broaden our understanding of how our world works. Readers from a variety of disciplines will benefit from the knowledge of system behavior they will gain from this book and will be able to apply those principles in various contexts. The treatment of the subject is non-mathematical, and the book considers some of the latest concepts in the systems discipline, such as agent based systems, optimization, and discrete events and procedures. The diverse range of examples provided in this book, will allow readers to: Apply system knowledge at work and in daily life without deep mathematical knowledge; Build models and simulate system behaviors on a personal computer; Opti...

  9. Understanding Underrepresented Populations in the Business School Pipeline. GMAC® Research Report RR-16-02

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Rhonda; Caruthers, Devina

    2016-01-01

    This white paper, "Understanding Underrepresented Populations in the Business School Pipeline," examines the shifting US racial and ethnic demographics and projected growth among US minority populations and the challenges--and incentives--these developments pose for US business schools to increase the opportunities for minority students…

  10. Integrating population and genetic monitoring to understand changes in the abundance of a threatened seabird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalina Vásquez-Carrillo; R. William Henry; Laird Henkel; M. Zachariah. Peery

    2013-01-01

    Population monitoring programs for threatened species are rarely designed to disentangle the effects of movements from changes in birth and death rates on estimated trends in abundance. Here, we illustrate how population and genetic monitoring can be integrated to understand the cause of large changes in the abundance of a threatened species of seabird, the Marbled...

  11. On the population dynamics of the malaria vector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngwa, G.A.

    2005-10-01

    A deterministic differential equation model for the population dynamics of the human malaria vector is derived and studied. Conditions for the existence and stability of a non-zero steady state vector population density are derived. These reveal that a threshold parameter, the vectorial basic reproduction number, exist and the vector can establish itself in the community if and only if this parameter exceeds unity. When a non-zero steady state population density exists, it can be stable but it can also be driven to instability via a Hopf Bifurcation to periodic solutions, as a parameter is varied in parameter space. By considering a special case, an asymptotic perturbation analysis is used to derive the amplitude of the oscillating solutions for the full non-linear system. The present modelling exercise and results show that it is possible to study the population dynamics of disease vectors, and hence oscillatory behaviour as it is often observed in most indirectly transmitted infectious diseases of humans, without recourse to external seasonal forcing. (author)

  12. Evolutionary dynamics of dengue virus populations within the mosquito vector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambrechts, Louis; Lequime, Sebastian

    2016-12-01

    To date, dengue virus evolution has mainly been addressed by studies conducted at the between-host level. Like other pathogens with high mutation rate and rapid replication, dengue viruses also evolve during the course of an infection. Over the last few years, the advent of deep-sequencing technologies has facilitated studies of dengue virus populations at the within-host level. Here, we review recent advances on the evolutionary dynamics of dengue virus populations within their mosquito vector. We discuss how identifying the evolutionary forces acting on dengue virus populations within the mosquito can shed light on the processes underlying vector-virus interactions and the evolution of epidemiologically relevant traits. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Linking animal population dynamics to alterations in foraging behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard; Tougaard, Jakob

    the animals’ ability to forage efficiently and to sustain their energy intake, is influenced by noise emitted from wind turbines and ships. The energy levels in turn affect their survival. The fine-scale movements of the simulated animals was governed by a spatial memory, which allowed the model to produce......Background/Question/Methods The survival of animal populations is strongly influenced by the individuals’ ability to forage efficiently, yet there are few studies of how populations respond when disturbances cause animals to deviate from their natural foraging behavior. Animals that respond...... that are increasingly exposed to noise from ships, wind turbines, etc. In the present study we investigate how the dynamics of the harbor porpoise population (Phocoena phocoena) in the inner Danish waters is influenced by disturbances using an agent- based simulation model. In the model animal movement, and hence...

  14. Dynamic use of geoscience information to develop scientific understanding for a nuclear waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, N.G.W.; Tsang, C.F.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses the development and safety evaluation of a nuclear waste geologic repository. Scientific understanding dependent upon information from a number of geoscience disciplines is described. A discussion is given on the dynamic use of the information through the different stages. The authors point out the need for abstracting, deriving and updating a quantitative spatial and process model (QSPM) to develop a scientific understanding of site responses as a crucial element in the dynamic procedure

  15. The habits of highly effective phages: population dynamics as a framework for identifying therapeutic phages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J Bull

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The use of bacteriophages as antibacterial agents is being actively researched on a global scale. Typically, the phages used are isolated from the wild by plating on the bacteria of interest, and a far larger set of candidate phages is often available than can be used in any application. When an excess of phages is available, how should the best phages be identified? Here we consider phage-bacterial population dynamics as a basis for evaluating and predicting phage success. A central question is whether the innate dynamical properties of phages are the determinants of success, or instead, whether extrinsic, indirect effects can be responsible. We address the dynamical perspective, motivated in part by the absence of dynamics in previously suggested principles of phage therapy. Current mathematical models of bacterial-phage dynamics do not capture the realities of in vivo dynamics, nor is this likely to change, but they do give insight to qualitative properties that may be generalizable. In particular, phage adsorption rate may be critical to treatment success, so understanding the effects of the in vivo environment on host availability may allow prediction of useful phages prior to in vivo experimentation. Principles for predicting efficacy may be derived by developing a greater understanding of the in vivo system, or such principles could be determined empirically by comparing phages with known differences in their dynamic properties. The comparative approach promises to be a powerful method of discovering the key to phage success. We offer five recommendations for future study: (i compare phages differing in treatment efficacy to identify the phage properties associated with success, (ii assay dynamics in vivo, (iii understand mechanisms of bacterial escape from phages, (iv test phages in model infections that are relevant to the intended clinical applications, and (v develop new classes of models for phage growth in spatially heterogeneous

  16. Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koons, David N; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent; Gimenez, Olivier

    2015-06-01

    Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semiarid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, USA, we applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-yr time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited a strong potential to grow from low density (β0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible interval based on 95% of the highest posterior density [BCI] = 0.19-0.33), and weak but statistically significant density dependence (β1 = -0.02, BCI = -0.04 to -0.004). Early spring temperatures also had strong positive effects on population growth (Pfat1 = 0.09, BCI = 0.04-0.14), much more so than precipitation and other temperature-related variables (model weight > three times more than that for other climate variables). Although we hypothesized that harvest is the primary driving force of bison population dynamics in southern Utah, our elasticity analysis indicated that changes in early spring temperature could have a greater relative effect on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or. the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife management policies and planning.

  17. Trends and population dynamics of a Velvet Scoter (Melanitta fusca) population: influence of density dependence and winter climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartman, G.; Kölzsch, A.; Larsson, K.; Nordberg, M.; Höglund, J.

    2013-01-01

    As many seaduck populations around the world have been reported to be in decline, there is an increasing demand for knowledge about intrinsic and extrinsic factors determining population dynamics of these species. In this study, we analyzed long-term dynamics of the summer population of Velvet

  18. Can Dynamic Visualizations Improve Middle School Students' Understanding of Energy in Photosynthesis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryoo, Kihyun; Linn, Marcia C.

    2012-01-01

    Dynamic visualizations have the potential to make abstract scientific phenomena more accessible and visible to students, but they can also be confusing and difficult to comprehend. This research investigates how dynamic visualizations, compared to static illustrations, can support middle school students in developing an integrated understanding of…

  19. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vahia, Mayank N.; Ladiwala, Uma; Mahathe, Pavan; Mathur, Deepak

    2016-01-01

    Background Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction. Method and Results We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples’ movement over ~2000 years before the present era. Conclusions We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available. PMID:27148959

  20. Mechanistic description of population dynamics using dynamic energy budget theory incorporated into integral projection models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smallegange, I.M.; Caswell, H.; Toorians, M.E.M.; de Roos, A.M.

    1. Integral projection models (IPMs) provide a powerful approach to investigate ecological and rapid evolutionary change in quantitative life-history characteristics and population dynamics. IPMs are constructed from functions that describe the demographic rates – survival, growth and reproduction –

  1. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the population will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.

  2. Effects of developmental variability on the dynamics and self-organization of cell populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, Kaumudi H.; Gholami, Azam; Zykov, Vladimir S.; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

    2017-11-01

    We report experimental and theoretical results for spatiotemporal pattern formation in cell populations, where the parameters vary in space and time due to mechanisms intrinsic to the system, namely Dictyostelium discoideum (D.d.) in the starvation phase. We find that different patterns are formed when the populations are initialized at different developmental stages, or when populations at different initial developmental stages are mixed. The experimentally observed patterns can be understood with a modified Kessler–Levine model that takes into account the initial spatial heterogeneity of the cell populations and a developmental path introduced by us, i.e. the time dependence of the various biochemical parameters. The dynamics of the parameters agree with known biochemical studies. Most importantly, the modified model reproduces not only our results, but also the observations of an independent experiment published earlier. This shows that pattern formation can be used to understand and quantify the temporal evolution of the system parameters.

  3. Dynamics in population heterogeneity during batch and continuous fermentation of Saccharomyces cerevisiae

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heins, Anna-Lena; Lencastre Fernandes, Rita; Lundin, L.

    2012-01-01

    on the expression of green fluorescent protein (GFP) was constructed which enable to perform single cell analysis, and thereby provides a tool to map population heterogeneity. A factorial design experiment followed by multivariate data analysis demonstrated a highly dynamic behavior with regard to subpopulation...... environmental changes, which might pose stress on the cells, affect their metabolism and consequently influence the level of heterogeneity of the population. To gain a deeper understanding of population heterogeneity and the triggering phenomena, a Saccharomyces cerevisiae growth reporter strain based...... distribution during different growth stages. To further simulate which effect gradients have on population heterogeneity, glucose and ethanol perturbations during continuous cultivation were performed. Physiological changes were analyzed on single cell level by using flow cytometry followed by cell sorting...

  4. Implications of interacting microscale habitat heterogeneity and disturbance events on Folsomia candida (Collembola) population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meli, Mattia; Palmqvist, Annemette; Forbes, Valery E

    2014-01-01

    The authors implemented a fractal algorithm in a spatially explicit individual-based model, in order to generate landscapes with different microscale patterns of habitat fragmentation and disturbance events, and studied their effects on population dynamics of the collembolan Folsomia candida. Among......, they are exposed to natural stressors, which might influence the effects of chemicals on populations. We designed simulation experiments that incorporate these 3 factors, and investigated their effects on populations of F. candida, in presence or absence of behavioural avoidance of contaminated habitat. Simulation...... events. The model suggests that a combination of heterogeneous contamination and multiple stressors can lead to unexpected effects of toxicants at the population level. Individual-based models can help to understand these effects and therefore add ecological realism to environmental risk assessment...

  5. Identifying consumer-resource population dynamics using paleoecological data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einarsson, Árni; Hauptfleisch, Ulf; Leavitt, Peter R; Ives, Anthony R

    2016-02-01

    Ecologists have long been fascinated by cyclic population fluctuations, because they suggest strong interactions between exploiter and victim species. Nonetheless, even for populations showing high-amplitude fluctuations, it is often hard to identify which species are the key drivers of the dynamics, because data are generally only available for a single species. Here, we use a paleoecological approach to investigate fluctuations in the midge population in Lake Mývatn, Iceland, which ranges over several orders of magnitude in irregular, multigeneration cycles. Previous circumstantial evidence points to consumer-resource interactions between midges and their primary food, diatoms, as the cause of these high-amplitude fluctuations. Using a pair of sediment cores from the lake, we reconstructed 26 years of dynamics of midges using egg remains and of algal groups using diagnostic pigments. We analyzed these data using statistical methods that account for both the autocorrelated nature of paleoecological data and measurement error caused by the mixing of sediment layers. The analyses revealed a signature of consumer-resource interactions in the fluctuations of midges and diatoms: diatom abundance (as inferred from biomarker pigment diatoxanthin) increased when midge abundance was low, and midge abundance (inferred from egg capsules) decreased when diatom abundance was low. Similar patterns were not found for pigments characterizing the other dominant primary producer group in the lake (cyanobacteria), subdominant algae (cryptophytes), or ubiquitous but chemically unstable biomarkers of total algal abundance (chlorophyll a); however, a significant but weaker pattern was found for the chemically stable indicator of total algal populations (β-carotene) to which diatoms are the dominant contributor. These analyses provide the first paleoecological evaluation of specific trophic interactions underlying high amplitude population fluctuations in lakes.

  6. Dynamics of adaptive immunity against phage in bacterial populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradde, Serena; Vucelja, Marija; Tesileanu, Tiberiu; Balasubramanian, Vijay

    The CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) mechanism allows bacteria to adaptively defend against phages by acquiring short genomic sequences (spacers) that target specific sequences in the viral genome. We propose a population dynamical model where immunity can be both acquired and lost. The model predicts regimes where bacterial and phage populations can co-exist, others where the populations oscillate, and still others where one population is driven to extinction. Our model considers two key parameters: (1) ease of acquisition and (2) spacer effectiveness in conferring immunity. Analytical calculations and numerical simulations show that if spacers differ mainly in ease of acquisition, or if the probability of acquiring them is sufficiently high, bacteria develop a diverse population of spacers. On the other hand, if spacers differ mainly in their effectiveness, their final distribution will be highly peaked, akin to a ``winner-take-all'' scenario, leading to a specialized spacer distribution. Bacteria can interpolate between these limiting behaviors by actively tuning their overall acquisition rate.

  7. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

  8. Population dynamics in Asia and the Pacific: implications for development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-03-01

    This article is an excerpt from a recently published article on interactions between population and development in the "Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific, 1993." Topics include the dynamics of change (growth, age structure, sex composition, migration); implications for specific development issues (population and education, population and health, population and employment, and population and the environment); and policy approaches (slowing growth, spatial distribution, and the role of women). The Asian focus is on population policy and fertility declines. Different conditions specific to each country and varying degrees of program success give rise to country-specific differences in rates of growth and declines in fertility. Population compositions and pressures on spatial distribution differ among countries. Development demands differ for education, health, employment, and environmental controls. A common feature is that population is integrated into social and economic development policies. The links between population and the environment are recognized and will be integrated into policy as knowledge emerges. The ESCAP region has about 58% of world population, and fertility has declined to 3.1 children per woman. Fertility declines do not result in demonstrable changes in the rate of population growth, because the proportion of reproductive age women has increased and will continue to do so until 2010. Reductions in fertility are balanced by mortality declines. The annual rate of increase has gradually slowed, however the absolute size is still huge. The goal of the Bali Declaration of 1992 is to reach replacement level fertility of 2.2 children per woman by 2010 in the ESCAP region. The UN median variant projects 2.4 children per woman by 2010. The countries unlikely to reach replacement level fertility are India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Age structure will determine the need for services. For example, South Asia will

  9. Heat exposure in cities: combining the dynamics of temperature and population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, L.; Wilhelmi, O.; Uejio, C. K.

    2017-12-01

    Assessment of human exposure to extreme heat requires the distributions of temperature and population. However, both variables are dynamic, thus presenting many challenges in capturing temperature and population patterns spatially and over time in an urban context. This study aims to improve the understanding of spatiotemporal patterns of urban population exposure to heat, taking Chicago, USA as an example. We estimate the hourly, geographically variable, population distribution considering commute of workers and students in a regular weekday and analyze the diurnal air temperature patterns during different meteorological conditions from satellite observations. The results show a relatively larger temperature increase in less urbanized areas during extreme heat events (EHEs), resulting in a spatially homogeneous temperature distribution over Chicago Metropolitan area. A lake cooling effect is weaker during EHEs. Population dynamics due to daily commute determine higher population density in more urbanized areas during daytime. The city-wide analysis reveals that the exposure is more sensitive to the nighttime temperature increases, and EHEs enhance this sensitivity. The high exposure hotspots are identified at the northwest Chicago, Cicero and Oak Park areas, where the influence from Lake Michigan is weakened, while the spatial extent of high outdoor exposure areas varies diurnally. This study's findings have potential to better inform general heat mitigation strategies during hot summer months and facilitate emergency response during EHEs. Availability of remotely-sensed temperature observations as well as the workers and students commute-adjusted population data allows for the adoption of this study's methodology in other major metropolitan areas. A better understanding of space-time patterns of urban population's exposure to heat will further enable local decision makers to mitigate extreme heat health risks and develop more targeted heat preparedness and

  10. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leilei Qu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1 have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings.

  11. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-09-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  12. Towards a general, population-level understanding of eco-evolutionary change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smallegange, I.M.; Coulson, T.

    2013-01-01

    Most population-level studies of eco-evolutionary dynamics assume that evolutionary change occurs in response to ecological change and vice versa. However, a growing number of papers report simultaneous ecological and evolutionary change, suggesting that the eco-evolutionary consequences of

  13. Genetic approaches to understanding the population-level impact of wind energy development on migratory bats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vonhof, Maarten J. [Western Michigan Univ., Kalamazoo MI (United States); Russell, Amy L. [Grand Valley State Univ. Allendale, MI (United States)

    2013-09-30

    Documented fatalities of bats at wind turbines have raised serious concerns about the future impacts of increased wind power development on populations of migratory bat species. Yet there is little data on bat population sizes and trends to provide context for understanding the consequences of mortality due to wind power development. Using a large dataset of both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA variation for eastern red bats, we demonstrated that: 1) this species forms a single, panmictic population across their range with no evidence for the historical use of divergent migratory pathways by any portion of the population; 2) the effective size of this population is in the hundreds of thousands to millions; and 3) for large populations, genetic diversity measures and at least one coalescent method are insensitive to even very high rates of population decline over long time scales and until population size has become very small. Our data provide important context for understanding the population-level impacts of wind power development on affected bat species.

  14. Plasmodium vivax population structure and transmission dynamics in Sabah Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W; Anstey, Nicholas M; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A (S) >0.5 [PSabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria elimination.

  15. [On the relation between encounter rate and population density: Are classical models of population dynamics justified?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nedorezov, L V

    2015-01-01

    A stochastic model of migrations on a lattice and with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that space is homogenous with respect to its properties and during one time step every individual (independently of local population numbers) can migrate to nearest nodes of lattice with equal probabilities. It is also assumed that population size remains constant during certain time interval of computer experiments. The following variants of estimation of encounter rate between individuals are considered: when for the fixed time moments every individual in every node of lattice interacts with all other individuals in the node; when individuals can stay in nodes independently, or can be involved in groups in two, three or four individuals. For each variant of interactions between individuals, average value (with respect to space and time) is computed for various values of population size. The samples obtained were compared with respective functions of classic models of isolated population dynamics: Verhulst model, Gompertz model, Svirezhev model, and theta-logistic model. Parameters of functions were calculated with least square method. Analyses of deviations were performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Lilliefors test, Shapiro-Wilk test, and other statistical tests. It is shown that from traditional point of view there are no correspondence between the encounter rate and functions describing effects of self-regulatory mechanisms on population dynamics. Best fitting of samples was obtained with Verhulst and theta-logistic models when using the dataset resulted from the situation when every individual in the node interacts with all other individuals.

  16. Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

    2018-02-03

    For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

  17. Maintenance of algal endosymbionts in Paramecium bursaria: a simple model based on population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwai, Sosuke; Fujiwara, Kenji; Tamura, Takuro

    2016-09-01

    Algal endosymbiosis is widely distributed in eukaryotes including many protists and metazoans, and plays important roles in aquatic ecosystems, combining phagotrophy and phototrophy. To maintain a stable symbiotic relationship, endosymbiont population size in the host must be properly regulated and maintained at a constant level; however, the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of algal endosymbionts are still largely unknown. Here we investigate the population dynamics of the unicellular ciliate Paramecium bursaria and its Chlorella-like algal endosymbiont under various experimental conditions in a simple culture system. Our results suggest that endosymbiont population size in P. bursaria was not regulated by active processes such as cell division coupling between the two organisms, or partitioning of the endosymbionts at host cell division. Regardless, endosymbiont population size was eventually adjusted to a nearly constant level once cells were grown with light and nutrients. To explain this apparent regulation of population size, we propose a simple mechanism based on the different growth properties (specifically the nutrient requirements) of the two organisms, and based from this develop a mathematical model to describe the population dynamics of host and endosymbiont. The proposed mechanism and model may provide a basis for understanding the maintenance of algal endosymbionts. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Do farming practices influence population dynamics of rodents?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Massawe, A W; Rwamugira, W; Leirs, Herwig

    2007-01-01

    A capture-mark-recapture study was conducted in crop fields in Morogoro, Tanzania, to investigate how the population dynamics of multimammate field rats, Mastomys natalensis, was influenced by the commonly practised land preparation methods and cropping systems. Two land preparation methods (trac...... practices. In maize fields in Tanzania, the crop is most susceptible to damage by M. natalensis in the first 2 weeks after planting, and therefore, lower densities of rodents will result into lower crop damage in tractor ploughed fields....

  19. Spatial dynamics of a periodic population model with dispersal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Yu; Zhao Xiaoqiang

    2009-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the study of spatial dynamics of a class of periodic integro-differential equations which describe the population dispersal process via a dispersal kernel. By appealing to the theory of asymptotic speeds of spread and travelling waves for monotonic periodic semiflows, we establish the existence of the spreading speed c * and the nonexistence of continuous periodic travelling wave solutions with wave speed c * . We also prove the existence of left-continuous periodic travelling waves with wave speed c ≥ c * . In the autonomous case, the continuity of monotonic wave profiles with wave speed c ≥ c * is obtained

  20. Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culcidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahumada, Jorge A.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

    2004-01-01

    We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.

  1. Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shayegh, Soheil

    2017-11-01

    Climate change impacts may drive affected populations to migrate. However, migration decisions in response to climate change could have broader effects on population dynamics in affected regions. Here, I model the effect of climate change on fertility rates, income inequality, and human capital accumulation in developing countries, focusing on the instrumental role of migration as a key adaptation mechanism. In particular, I investigate how climate-induced migration in developing countries will affect those who do not migrate. I find that holding all else constant, climate change raises the return on acquiring skills, because skilled individuals have greater migration opportunities than unskilled individuals. In response to this change in incentives, parents may choose to invest more in education and have fewer children. This may ultimately reduce local income inequality, partially offsetting some of the damages of climate change for low-income individuals who do not migrate.

  2. State-dependent neutral delay equations from population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbarossa, M V; Hadeler, K P; Kuttler, C

    2014-10-01

    A novel class of state-dependent delay equations is derived from the balance laws of age-structured population dynamics, assuming that birth rates and death rates, as functions of age, are piece-wise constant and that the length of the juvenile phase depends on the total adult population size. The resulting class of equations includes also neutral delay equations. All these equations are very different from the standard delay equations with state-dependent delay since the balance laws require non-linear correction factors. These equations can be written as systems for two variables consisting of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) and a generalized shift, a form suitable for numerical calculations. It is shown that the neutral equation (and the corresponding ODE--shift system) is a limiting case of a system of two standard delay equations.

  3. Evolutionary game theory for physical and biological scientists. I. Training and validating population dynamics equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, David; Tlsty, Thea D

    2014-08-06

    Failure to understand evolutionary dynamics has been hypothesized as limiting our ability to control biological systems. An increasing awareness of similarities between macroscopic ecosystems and cellular tissues has inspired optimism that game theory will provide insights into the progression and control of cancer. To realize this potential, the ability to compare game theoretic models and experimental measurements of population dynamics should be broadly disseminated. In this tutorial, we present an analysis method that can be used to train parameters in game theoretic dynamics equations, used to validate the resulting equations, and used to make predictions to challenge these equations and to design treatment strategies. The data analysis techniques in this tutorial are adapted from the analysis of reaction kinetics using the method of initial rates taught in undergraduate general chemistry courses. Reliance on computer programming is avoided to encourage the adoption of these methods as routine bench activities.

  4. Uncoupling the effects of seed predation and seed dispersal by granivorous ants on plant population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Arnan

    Full Text Available Secondary seed dispersal is an important plant-animal interaction, which is central to understanding plant population and community dynamics. Very little information is still available on the effects of dispersal on plant demography and, particularly, for ant-seed dispersal interactions. As many other interactions, seed dispersal by animals involves costs (seed predation and benefits (seed dispersal, the balance of which determines the outcome of the interaction. Separate quantification of each of them is essential in order to understand the effects of this interaction. To address this issue, we have successfully separated and analyzed the costs and benefits of seed dispersal by seed-harvesting ants on the plant population dynamics of three shrub species with different traits. To that aim a stochastic, spatially-explicit individually-based simulation model has been implemented based on actual data sets. The results from our simulation model agree with theoretical models of plant response dependent on seed dispersal, for one plant species, and ant-mediated seed predation, for another one. In these cases, model predictions were close to the observed values at field. Nonetheless, these ecological processes did not affect in anyway a third species, for which the model predictions were far from the observed values. This indicates that the balance between costs and benefits associated to secondary seed dispersal is clearly related to specific traits. This study is one of the first works that analyze tradeoffs of secondary seed dispersal on plant population dynamics, by disentangling the effects of related costs and benefits. We suggest analyzing the effects of interactions on population dynamics as opposed to merely analyzing the partners and their interaction strength.

  5. Host-Parasite Interactions and Population Dynamics of Rock Ptarmigan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenkewitz, Ute; Nielsen, Ólafur K; Skírnisson, Karl; Stefánsson, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    evidence that E. muta through time-lag in prevalence with respect to host population size and by showing significant relations with host body condition, mortality, and fecundity could destabilize ptarmigan population dynamics in Iceland.

  6. Evolutionary dynamics for persistent cooperation in structured populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan; Liu, Xinsheng; Claussen, Jens Christian; Guo, Wanlin

    2015-06-01

    The emergence and maintenance of cooperative behavior is a fascinating topic in evolutionary biology and social science. The public goods game (PGG) is a paradigm for exploring cooperative behavior. In PGG, the total resulting payoff is divided equally among all participants. This feature still leads to the dominance of defection without substantially magnifying the public good by a multiplying factor. Much effort has been made to explain the evolution of cooperative strategies, including a recent model in which only a portion of the total benefit is shared by all the players through introducing a new strategy named persistent cooperation. A persistent cooperator is a contributor who is willing to pay a second cost to retrieve the remaining portion of the payoff contributed by themselves. In a previous study, this model was analyzed in the framework of well-mixed populations. This paper focuses on discussing the persistent cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the structured populations consisting of three types of competing players (pure cooperators, defectors, and persistent cooperators) are revealed by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. In particular, the approximate expressions of fixation probabilities for strategies are derived on one-dimensional lattices. The phase diagrams of stationary states, and the evolution of frequencies and spatial patterns for strategies are illustrated on both one-dimensional and square lattices by simulations. Our results are consistent with the general observation that, at least in most situations, a structured population facilitates the evolution of cooperation. Specifically, here we find that the existence of persistent cooperators greatly suppresses the spreading of defectors under more relaxed conditions in structured populations compared to that obtained in well-mixed populations.

  7. Population Dynamics in the Capitalist World-Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Danna

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available World-systems analysis has given scant attention to population dynamics. Overlooked are large-scale macrohistorical population trends and their microhistorical foundation on procreative decisions-decisions which are taken by a historically changing subject of procreation: local elders or other authorities, head(s of the household, couples, and women. The discipline of demography is also not as helpful as it could be, given its basis in modernization theory, which fails to recognize intentionality in reproduction in pre-capitalist societies. It assumes a model of "demographic transition" from a state of "natural fertility" to a state of conscious family planning, while also treating mortality as independent of fertility Marxism recognized the importance of population as a source of labor for profit and capital accumulation. With its tools Sydney Coontz developed a demand for labor theory explaining in particular the decrease in the birth rate in England and the United States at the turn of the century This theory was f urther developed by anthropologists of the "mode of product ion and population pat terns " who, with other authors, offer useful theories and insights to advance world-historical research on population. This article explores connections between population dy namics and world-systems analysis. I explore six key questions at different levels of analysis, including: 1 Are there world-systems ' imperatives concerning human reproduction?; 2 Do human reproduction imperatives differ across world-systems.'?; 3 How do the (eventual systems requirements get transmitted to households and individuals'?; 4 Why do people have children.'?; 5 Who is the subject of procreation decisions'?; and 6 How is the number of offspring chosen? Finally, I offer guidelines for applying the six questions to the capitalist world-economy.

  8. Single-virion sequencing of lamivudine-treated HBV populations reveal population evolution dynamics and demographic history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yuan O; Aw, Pauline P K; de Sessions, Paola Florez; Hong, Shuzhen; See, Lee Xian; Hong, Lewis Z; Wilm, Andreas; Li, Chen Hao; Hue, Stephane; Lim, Seng Gee; Nagarajan, Niranjan; Burkholder, William F; Hibberd, Martin

    2017-10-27

    Viral populations are complex, dynamic, and fast evolving. The evolution of groups of closely related viruses in a competitive environment is termed quasispecies. To fully understand the role that quasispecies play in viral evolution, characterizing the trajectories of viral genotypes in an evolving population is the key. In particular, long-range haplotype information for thousands of individual viruses is critical; yet generating this information is non-trivial. Popular deep sequencing methods generate relatively short reads that do not preserve linkage information, while third generation sequencing methods have higher error rates that make detection of low frequency mutations a bioinformatics challenge. Here we applied BAsE-Seq, an Illumina-based single-virion sequencing technology, to eight samples from four chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients - once before antiviral treatment and once after viral rebound due to resistance. With single-virion sequencing, we obtained 248-8796 single-virion sequences per sample, which allowed us to find evidence for both hard and soft selective sweeps. We were able to reconstruct population demographic history that was independently verified by clinically collected data. We further verified four of the samples independently through PacBio SMRT and Illumina Pooled deep sequencing. Overall, we showed that single-virion sequencing yields insight into viral evolution and population dynamics in an efficient and high throughput manner. We believe that single-virion sequencing is widely applicable to the study of viral evolution in the context of drug resistance and host adaptation, allows differentiation between soft or hard selective sweeps, and may be useful in the reconstruction of intra-host viral population demographic history.

  9. Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

    2016-01-01

    The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

  10. A reduced complexity discrete particle model for understanding the sediment dynamics of steep upland river confluences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tancock, M. J.; Lane, S. N.; Hardy, R. J.

    2012-12-01

    There has been a significant amount of research conducted in order to understand the flow fields at natural river confluences. Much of this has been made possible due to advances in the use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). However, much of this research has been conducted on river confluences with negligible water surface slopes and any understanding of the sediment dynamics is largely implied from the flow fields. Therefore, a key challenge is to understand the flow and sediment dynamics of steep river confluences with dynamic boundaries. Two numerical modelling developments are presented which together are capable of increasing our understanding of the sediment dynamics of steep river confluences. The first is the application of a Height-of-Liquid (HOL) model within a CFD framework to explicitly solve the water surface elevation. This is a time-dependent, multiphase treatment of the fluid dynamics which solves for the change in volume of water and air in each vertical column of the mesh. The second is the development of a reduced complexity discrete particle transport model which uses the change in momentum on a spherical particle to predict the transport paths through the flow field determined from CFD simulations. The performance of the two models is tested using field data from a series of highly dynamic, steep gravel-bed confluences on a braidplain of the Borgne d'Arolla, Switzerland. The HOL model is validated against the water surface elevation and flow velocity data and is demonstrated to provide a reliable representation of the flow field in fast-flowing, supercritical flows. In order to validate the discrete particle model, individual particles were tracked using electronic tacheometry. The model is demonstrated to accurately represent the particle tracks obtained in the field and provides a new methodology to understand the dynamic morphology of braid plains.

  11. The model of fungal population dynamics affected by nystatin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voychuk, Sergei I.; Gromozova, Elena N.; Sadovskiy, Mikhail G.

    Fungal diseases are acute problems of the up-to-day medicine. Significant increase of resistance of microorganisms to the medically used antibiotics and a lack of new effective drugs follows in a growth of dosage of existing chemicals to solve the problem. Quite often such approach results in side effects on humans. Detailed study of fungi-antibiotic dynamics can identify new mechanisms and bring new ideas to overcome the microbial resistance with a lower dosage of antibiotics. In this study, the dynamics of the microbial population under antibiotic treatment was investigated. The effects of nystatin on the population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts were used as a model system. Nystatin effects were investigated both in liquid and solid media by viability tests. Dependence of nystatin action on osmotic gradient was evaluated in NaCl solutions. Influences of glucose and yeast extract were additionally analyzed. A "stepwise" pattern of the cell death caused by nystatin was the most intriguing. This pattern manifested in periodical changes of the stages of cell death against stages of resistance to the antibiotic. The mathematical model was proposed to describe cell-antibiotic interactions and nystatin viability effects in the liquid medium. The model implies that antibiotic ability to cause a cells death is significantly affected by the intracellular compounds, which came out of cells after their osmotic barriers were damaged

  12. Representation of dynamical stimuli in populations of threshold neurons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatjana Tchumatchenko

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Many sensory or cognitive events are associated with dynamic current modulations in cortical neurons. This raises an urgent demand for tractable model approaches addressing the merits and limits of potential encoding strategies. Yet, current theoretical approaches addressing the response to mean- and variance-encoded stimuli rarely provide complete response functions for both modes of encoding in the presence of correlated noise. Here, we investigate the neuronal population response to dynamical modifications of the mean or variance of the synaptic bombardment using an alternative threshold model framework. In the variance and mean channel, we provide explicit expressions for the linear and non-linear frequency response functions in the presence of correlated noise and use them to derive population rate response to step-like stimuli. For mean-encoded signals, we find that the complete response function depends only on the temporal width of the input correlation function, but not on other functional specifics. Furthermore, we show that both mean- and variance-encoded signals can relay high-frequency inputs, and in both schemes step-like changes can be detected instantaneously. Finally, we obtain the pairwise spike correlation function and the spike triggered average from the linear mean-evoked response function. These results provide a maximally tractable limiting case that complements and extends previous results obtained in the integrate and fire framework.

  13. Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [Ppopulation appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria elimination. PMID:24358203

  14. Understanding the Dynamics of the Coupled Ring Current Radiation Belt System Using 4D VERB Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shprits, Y.; Kellerman, A. C.; Drozdov, A.; Orlova, K.; Spasojevic, M.

    2014-12-01

    Predicting and understanding the non-linear response of different electron populations in the inner magnetosphere, including ring current and higher energy radiation belts, has been a grand challenge since the beginning of the space age. During this past decade, there have been a number of long-term simulations that used lower energy boundary condition observations around geosynchronous orbit. In this study, we set up observations at around 15 RE and study how the combined convective-diffusive transport can result in the acceleration of keV to relativistic and ultra-relativistic energies. We show that while lower energy radial transport is dominated by the convection, higher energy transport is dominated by the diffusive radial transport. MLT dependent diffusion confidents allow us to study how difference in wave properties at different MLT can influence the dynamics of the particles. Inclusion of adiabatic changes also allows us to study the radial transport that results from pitch-angle scattering and adiabatic changes. We also show that there exists an intermediate range of energies for electrons for which both processes work simultaneously. We show the comparison of the 4D VERB simulations with the Van Allen Probes measurements.

  15. Scaling of the mean and variance of population dynamics under fluctuating regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pertoldi, Cino; Faurby, S; Reed, D H; Knape, J; Björklund, M; Lundberg, P; Kaitala, V; Loeschcke, V; Bach, L A

    2014-12-01

    Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on the interactions between exogenous (biotic and abiotic) and endogenous (e.g., demographic and genetic) drivers of population dynamics. Recent work focuses on the autocorrelation structure of environmental perturbations and its effects on the persistence of populations. Accurate estimation of extinction times and especially determination of the mechanisms affecting extinction times is important for biodiversity conservation. Here we examine the interaction between environmental fluctuations and the scaling effect of the mean population size with its variance. We investigate how interactions between environmental and demographic stochasticity can affect the mean time to extinction, change optimal patch size dynamics, and how it can alter the often-assumed linear relationship between the census size and the effective population size. The importance of the correlation between environmental and demographic variation depends on the relative importance of the two types of variation. We found the correlation to be important when the two types of variation were approximately equal; however, the importance of the correlation diminishes as one source of variation dominates. The implications of these findings are discussed from a conservation and eco-evolutionary point of view.

  16. Development of conceptual ecological models linking management of the Missouri River to pallid sturgeon population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, Robert B.; Parsley, Michael J.; Annis, Mandy L.; Colvin, Michael E.; Welker, Timothy L.; James, Daniel A.

    2015-01-01

    This report documents the process of developing and refining conceptual ecological models (CEMs) for linking river management to pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) population dynamics in the Missouri River. The refined CEMs are being used in the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis to organize, document, and formalize an understanding of pallid sturgeon population responses to past and future management alternatives. The general form of the CEMs, represented by a population-level model and component life-stage models, was determined in workshops held in the summer of 2013. Subsequently, the Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis team designed a general hierarchical structure for the component models, refined the graphical structure, and reconciled variation among the components and between models developed for the upper river (Upper Missouri & Yellowstone Rivers) and the lower river (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam). Importance scores attributed to the relations between primary biotic characteristics and survival were used to define a candidate set of working dominant hypotheses about pallid sturgeon population dynamics. These CEMs are intended to guide research and adaptive-management actions to benefit pallid sturgeon populations in the Missouri River.

  17. Population dynamics and range expansion in nine-banded armadillos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J Loughry

    Full Text Available Understanding why certain species can successfully colonize new areas while others do not is a central question in ecology. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus is a conspicuous example of a successful invader, having colonized much of the southern United States in the last 200 years. We used 15 years (1992-2006 of capture-mark-recapture data from a population of armadillos in northern Florida in order to estimate, and examine relationships among, various demographic parameters that may have contributed to this ongoing range expansion. Modeling across a range of values for γ, the probability of juveniles surviving in the population until first capture, we found that population growth rates varied from 0.80 for γ = 0.1, to 1.03 for γ = 1.0. Growth rates approached 1.0 only when γ ≥ 0.80, a situation that might not occur commonly because of the high rate of disappearance of juveniles. Net reproductive rate increased linearly with γ, but life expectancy (estimated at 3 years was independent of γ. We also found that growth rates were lower during a 3-year period of hardwood removal that removed preferred habitat than in the years preceding or following. Life-table response experiment (LTRE analysis indicated the decrease in growth rate during logging was primarily due to changes in survival rates of adults. Likewise, elasticity analyses of both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates revealed that survival parameters were more influential on population growth than were those related to reproduction. Collectively, our results are consistent with recent theories regarding biological invasions which posit that populations no longer at the leading edge of range expansion do not exhibit strong positive growth rates, and that high reproductive output is less critical in predicting the likelihood of successful invasion than are life-history strategies that emphasize allocation of resources to future, as opposed to current

  18. Population dynamics of an invasive forest insect and associated natural enemies in the aftermath of invasion: implications for biological control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Understanding the population dynamics of exotic pests and associated natural enemies is important in developing sound management strategies in invaded forest ecosystems. The emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is an invasive phloem-feeding beetle that h...

  19. Population dynamics of an invasive forest insect and associated natural enemies in the aftermath of invasion: implications for biological control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian J. Duan; Leah S. Bauer; Kristopher J. Abell; Michael D. Ulyshen; Roy G. Van Driesche

    2015-01-01

    1. Understanding the population dynamics of exotic pests and associated natural enemies is important in developing sound management strategies in invaded forest ecosystems. The emerald ash borer (EAB) Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire is an invasive phloem-feeding beetle that has killed tens of millions of ash Fraxinus trees in North...

  20. A review of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in Dutch breeding herds: population dynamics and clinical relevance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nodelijk, G.; Nielen, M.; Jong, de M.C.M.; Verheijden, J.H.M.

    2003-01-01

    Understanding the spread of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) in pig populations is essential to the development of effective PRRS prevention and control strategies. Moreover, knowledge of the field dynamics of PRRSV in pigs will provide insights into the clinical relevance

  1. World Trade, disease and Florida's animal populations. The changing dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffman, L M

    2000-01-01

    One of Florida's three leading economic industries is agriculture. Agriculture feeds and enhances the lives of millions of people in Florida, the United States, and the entire world. Agriculture in Florida results in more than $6 billion in farm cash receipts, employment for more than 60,000 people a month, more than $18 billion in farm-related economic activity and stretches from the farm gate to the state's supermarkets with an impact of nearly $45 billion. The domestic and wild animal populations of Florida, our unique relationship to the Caribbean, Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, Central and South America, as well as tourism, diverse human population growth and immigration, all add to the complexity of an environment capable of establishing many animals, animal pests and diseases not native to the United States. Never before have the dynamics of disease control involved as much challenge and diversity. Is the balance at risk, or is the risk over-balanced? Can science, economics and politics blend to maintain this balance? How will the balance affect world trade, disease control and the animal populations of Florida?

  2. Microscopic dynamics in simple liquids: a clue to understanding the basic thermodynamics of the liquid state

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabrillo, C; Bermejo, F J; Maira-Vidal, A; Fernandez-Perea, R; Bennington, S M; Martin, D

    2004-01-01

    The advent of inelastic x-ray scattering techniques has prompted a reawakened interest in the dynamics of simple liquids. Such studies are often carried out using simplified models to account for the stochastic dynamics that give rise to quasielastic scattering. The vibrational and diffusive dynamics of molten potassium are studied here by an experiment using neutron scattering and are shown to provide some clues to understand the basic thermodynamics of the liquid state. The findings reported here suggest ways in which the true complementarity of neutron and x-ray scattering may be profitably exploited

  3. Using system dynamics modeling to understand the impact of social change initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Gary B; Levine, Ralph; Miller, Robin Lin

    2007-06-01

    Community psychologists have a long history of interest in understanding social systems and how to bring about enduring positive change in these systems. However, the methods that community psychologists use to anticipate and evaluate the changes that result from system change efforts are less well developed. In the current paper, we introduce readers to system dynamics modeling, an action research approach to studying complex systems and the consequences of system change. We illustrate this approach by describing a system dynamics model of educational reform. We provide readers with an introduction to system dynamics modeling, as well as describe the strengths and limitations of the approach for application to community psychology.

  4. A population-level model from the microscopic dynamics in Escherichia coli chemotaxis via Langevin approximation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Zhuo-Ran; Wu Tai-Lin; Ouyang Qi; Tu Yu-Hai

    2012-01-01

    Recent extensive studies of Escherichia coli (E. coli) chemotaxis have achieved a deep understanding of its microscopic control dynamics. As a result, various quantitatively predictive models have been developed to describe the chemotactic behavior of E. coli motion. However, a population-level partial differential equation (PDE) that rationally incorporates such microscopic dynamics is still insufficient. Apart from the traditional Keller–Segel (K–S) equation, many existing population-level models developed from the microscopic dynamics are integro-PDEs. The difficulty comes mainly from cell tumbles which yield a velocity jumping process. Here, we propose a Langevin approximation method that avoids such a difficulty without appreciable loss of precision. The resulting model not only quantitatively reproduces the results of pathway-based single-cell simulators, but also provides new inside information on the mechanism of E. coli chemotaxis. Our study demonstrates a possible alternative in establishing a simple population-level model that allows for the complex microscopic mechanisms in bacterial chemotaxis

  5. The dynamics, transmission, and population impacts of avian malaria in native hawaiian birds: A modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel, M.D.; Hobbelen, P.H.F.; Decastro, F.; Ahumada, J.A.; Lapointe, D.A.; Atkinson, C.T.; Woodworth, B.L.; Hart, P.J.; Duffy, D.C.

    2011-01-01

    We developed an epidemiological model of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) across an altitudinal gradient on the island of Hawaii that includes the dynamics of the host, vector, and parasite. This introduced mosquito-borne disease is hypothesized to have contributed to extinctions and major shifts in the altitudinal distribution of highly susceptible native forest birds. Our goal was to better understand how biotic and abiotic factors influence the intensity of malaria transmission and impact on susceptible populations of native Hawaiian forest birds. Our model illustrates key patterns in the malaria-forest bird system: high malaria transmission in low-elevation forests with minor seasonal or annual variation in infection;episodic transmission in mid-elevation forests with site-to-site, seasonal, and annual variation depending on mosquito dynamics;and disease refugia in high-elevation forests with only slight risk of infection during summer. These infection patterns are driven by temperature and rainfall effects on parasite incubation period and mosquito dynamics across an elevational gradient and the availability of larval habitat, especially in mid-elevation forests. The results from our model suggest that disease is likely a key factor in causing population decline or restricting the distribution of many susceptible Hawaiian species and preventing the recovery of other vulnerable species. The model also provides a framework for the evaluation of factors influencing disease transmission and alternative disease control programs, and to evaluate the impact of climate change on disease cycles and bird populations. ??2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  6. Temporal dynamics of distinct CA1 cell populations during unconscious state induced by ketamine.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Kuang

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Ketamine is a widely used dissociative anesthetic which can induce some psychotic-like symptoms and memory deficits in some patients during the post-operative period. To understand its effects on neural population dynamics in the brain, we employed large-scale in vivo ensemble recording techniques to monitor the activity patterns of simultaneously recorded hippocampal CA1 pyramidal cells and various interneurons during several conscious and unconscious states such as awake rest, running, slow wave sleep, and ketamine-induced anesthesia. Our analyses reveal that ketamine induces distinct oscillatory dynamics not only in pyramidal cells but also in at least seven different types of CA1 interneurons including putative basket cells, chandelier cells, bistratified cells, and O-LM cells. These emergent unique oscillatory dynamics may very well reflect the intrinsic temporal relationships within the CA1 circuit. It is conceivable that systematic characterization of network dynamics may eventually lead to better understanding of how ketamine induces unconsciousness and consequently alters the conscious mind.

  7. A Mathematical Model of Economic Population Dynamics in a Country That Has Optimal Zakat Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subhan, M.

    2018-04-01

    Zakat is the main tools against two issues in Islamic economy: economic justice and helping the poor. However, no government of Islamic countries can solve the economic disparity today. A mathematical model could give some understanding about this phenomenon. The goal of this research is to obtain a mathematical model that can describe the dynamic of economic group population. The research is theoretical based on relevance references. From the analytical and numerical simulation, we conclude that well-manage zakat and full comitment of the wealthy can achieve wealth equilibrium that represents minimum poverty.

  8. Artificial bee colony algorithm with dynamic multi-population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ming; Ji, Zhicheng; Wang, Yan

    2017-07-01

    To improve the convergence rate and make a balance between the global search and local turning abilities, this paper proposes a decentralized form of artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm with dynamic multi-populations by means of fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering. Each subpopulation periodically enlarges with the same size during the search process, and the overlapping individuals among different subareas work for delivering information acting as exploring the search space with diffusion of solutions. Moreover, a Gaussian-based search equation with redefined local attractor is proposed to further accelerate the diffusion of the best solution and guide the search towards potential areas. Experimental results on a set of benchmarks demonstrate the competitive performance of our proposed approach.

  9. Mean-field games with logistic population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2013-12-01

    In its standard form, a mean-field game can be defined by coupled system of equations, a Hamilton-Jacobi equation for the value function of agents and a Fokker-Planck equation for the density of agents. Traditionally, the latter equation is adjoint to the linearization of the former. Since the Fokker-Planck equation models a population dynamic, we introduce natural features such as seeding and birth, and nonlinear death rates. In this paper we analyze a stationary meanfield game in one dimension, illustrating various techniques to obtain regularity of solutions in this class of systems. In particular we consider a logistic-type model for birth and death of the agents which is natural in problems where crowding affects the death rate of the agents. The introduction of these new terms requires a number of new ideas to obtain wellposedness. In a forthcoming publication we will address higher dimensional models. ©2013 IEEE.

  10. Dynamical criticality in the collective activity of a neural population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mora, Thierry

    The past decade has seen a wealth of physiological data suggesting that neural networks may behave like critical branching processes. Concurrently, the collective activity of neurons has been studied using explicit mappings to classic statistical mechanics models such as disordered Ising models, allowing for the study of their thermodynamics, but these efforts have ignored the dynamical nature of neural activity. I will show how to reconcile these two approaches by learning effective statistical mechanics models of the full history of the collective activity of a neuron population directly from physiological data, treating time as an additional dimension. Applying this technique to multi-electrode recordings from retinal ganglion cells, and studying the thermodynamics of the inferred model, reveals a peak in specific heat reminiscent of a second-order phase transition.

  11. On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M.

    2014-01-01

    Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

  12. On the stochastic approach to marine population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Ferrandis

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to deepen and structure the statistical basis of marine population dynamics. The starting point is the correspondence between the concepts of mortality, survival and lifetime distribution. This is the kernel of the possibilities that survival analysis techniques offer to marine population dynamics. A rigorous definition of survival and mortality based on their properties and their probabilistic versions is briefly presented. Some well established models for lifetime distribution, which generalise the usual simple exponential distribution, might be used with their corresponding survivals and mortalities. A critical review of some published models is also made, including original models proposed in the way opened by Caddy (1991 and Sparholt (1990, which allow for a continuously decreasing natural mortality. Considering these elements, the pure death process dealt with in the literature is used as a theoretical basis for the evolution of a marine cohort. The elaboration of this process is based on Chiang´s study of the probability distribution of the life table (Chiang, 1960 and provides specific structured models for stock evolution as a Markovian process. These models may introduce new ideas in the line of thinking developed by Gudmundsson (1987 and Sampson (1990 in order to model the evolution of a marine cohort by stochastic processes. The suitable approximation of these processes by means of Gaussian processes may allow theoretical and computational multivariate Gaussian analysis to be applied to the probabilistic treatment of fisheries issues. As a consequence, the necessary catch equation appears as a stochastic integral with respect to the mentioned Markovian process of the stock. The solution of this equation is available when the mortalities are proportional, hence the use of the proportional hazards model (Cox, 1959. The assumption of these proportional mortalities leads naturally to the construction of a

  13. Evolutionary game dynamics in a growing structured population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poncela, Julia; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Moreno, Yamir; Traulsen, Arne

    2009-01-01

    We discuss a model for evolutionary game dynamics in a growing, network-structured population. In our model, new players can either make connections to random preexisting players or preferentially attach to those that have been successful in the past. The latter depends on the dynamics of strategies in the game, which we implement following the so-called Fermi rule such that the limits of weak and strong strategy selection can be explored. Our framework allows to address general evolutionary games. With only two parameters describing the preferential attachment and the intensity of selection, we describe a wide range of network structures and evolutionary scenarios. Our results show that even for moderate payoff preferential attachment, over represented hubs arise. Interestingly, we find that while the networks are growing, high levels of cooperation are attained, but the same network structure does not promote cooperation as a static network. Therefore, the mechanism of payoff preferential attachment is different to those usually invoked to explain the promotion of cooperation in static, already-grown networks.

  14. Sonoluminescence and dynamics of cavitation bubble populations in sulfuric acid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiemann, Andrea; Holsteyns, Frank; Cairós, Carlos; Mettin, Robert

    2017-01-01

    The detailed link of liquid phase sonochemical reactions and bubble dynamics is still not sufficiently known. To further clarify this issue, we image sonoluminescence and bubble oscillations, translations, and shapes in an acoustic cavitation setup at 23kHz in sulfuric acid with dissolved sodium sulfate and xenon gas saturation. The colour of sonoluminescence varies in a way that emissions from excited non-volatile sodium atoms are prominently observed far from the acoustic horn emitter ("red region"), while such emissions are nearly absent close to the horn tip ("blue region"). High-speed images reveal the dynamics of distinct bubble populations that can partly be linked to the different emission regions. In particular, we see smaller strongly collapsing spherical bubbles within the blue region, while larger bubbles with a liquid jet during collapse dominate the red region. The jetting is induced by the fast bubble translation, which is a consequence of acoustic (Bjerknes) forces in the ultrasonic field. Numerical simulations with a spherical single bubble model reproduce quantitatively the volume oscillations and fast translation of the sodium emitting bubbles. Additionally, their intermittent stopping is explained by multistability in a hysteretic parameter range. The findings confirm the assumption that bubble deformations are responsible for pronounced sodium sonoluminescence. Notably the observed translation induced jetting appears to serve as efficient mixing mechanism of liquid into the heated gas phase of collapsing bubbles, thus potentially promoting liquid phase sonochemistry in general. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Dynamical evolution of a fictitious population of binary Neptune Trojans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunini, Adrián

    2018-03-01

    We present numerical simulations of the evolution of a synthetic population of Binary Neptune Trojans, under the influence of the solar perturbations and tidal friction (the so-called Kozai cycles and tidal friction evolution). Our model includes the dynamical influence of the four giant planets on the heliocentric orbit of the binary centre of mass. In this paper, we explore the evolution of initially tight binaries around the Neptune L4 Lagrange point. We found that the variation of the heliocentric orbital elements due to the libration around the Lagrange point introduces significant changes in the orbital evolution of the binaries. Collisional processes would not play a significant role in the dynamical evolution of Neptune Trojans. After 4.5 × 109 yr of evolution, ˜50 per cent of the synthetic systems end up separated as single objects, most of them with slow diurnal rotation rate. The final orbital distribution of the surviving binary systems is statistically similar to the one found for Kuiper Belt Binaries when collisional evolution is not included in the model. Systems composed by a primary and a small satellite are more fragile than the ones composed by components of similar sizes.

  16. Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McElreath, Richard; Smaldino, Paul E

    2015-01-01

    Many published research results are false (Ioannidis, 2005), and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. Addressing these problems is frustrated by the lack of a formal framework that jointly represents hypothesis formation, replication, publication bias, and variation in research quality. We develop a mathematical model of scientific discovery that combines all of these elements. This model provides both a dynamic model of research as well as a formal framework for reasoning about the normative structure of science. We show that replication may serve as a ratchet that gradually separates true hypotheses from false, but the same factors that make initial findings unreliable also make replications unreliable. The most important factors in improving the reliability of research are the rate of false positives and the base rate of true hypotheses, and we offer suggestions for addressing each. Our results also bring clarity to verbal debates about the communication of research. Surprisingly, publication bias is not always an obstacle, but instead may have positive impacts-suppression of negative novel findings is often beneficial. We also find that communication of negative replications may aid true discovery even when attempts to replicate have diminished power. The model speaks constructively to ongoing debates about the design and conduct of science, focusing analysis and discussion on precise, internally consistent models, as well as highlighting the importance of population dynamics.

  17. Understanding how discrete populations of hypothalamic neurons orchestrate complicated behavioral states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allison eGraebner

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available A major question in systems neuroscience is how a single population of neurons can interact with the rest of the brain to orchestrate complex behavioral states. The hypothalamus contains many such discrete neuronal populations that individually regulate arousal, feeding, and drinking. For example, hypothalamic neurons that express hypocretin (Hcrt neuropeptides can sense homeostatic and metabolic factors affecting wakefulness and orchestrate organismal arousal. Neurons that express agouti-related protein (AgRP can sense the metabolic needs of the body and orchestrate a state of hunger. The organum vasculosum of the lamina terminalis (OVLT can detect the hypertonicity of blood and orchestrate a state of thirst. Each hypothalamic population is sufficient to generate complicated behavioral states through the combined efforts of distinct efferent projections. The principal challenge to understanding these brain systems is therefore to determine the individual roles of each downstream projection for each behavioral state. In recent years, the development and application of temporally precise, genetically encoded tools have greatly improved our understanding of the structure and function of these neural systems. This review will survey recent advances in our understanding of how these individual hypothalamic populations can orchestrate complicated behavioral states due to the combined efforts of individual downstream projections.

  18. Modelling the impact of climate change on woody plant population dynamics in South African savanna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeltsch Florian

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Southern Africa savannas climate change has been proposed to alter rainfall, the most important environmental driver for woody plants. Woody plants are a major component of savanna vegetation determining rangeland condition and biodiversity. In this study we use a spatially explicit, stochastic computer model to assess the impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Grewia flava, a common, fleshy-fruited shrub species in the southern Kalahari. Understanding the population dynamics of Grewia flava is a crucial task, because it is widely involved in the shrub/bush encroachment process, a major concern for rangeland management due to its adverse effect on livestock carrying capacity and biodiversity. Results For our study we consider four climate change scenarios that have been proposed for the southern Kalahari for the coming decades: (1 an increase in annual precipitation by 30–40%, (2 a decrease by 5–15%, (3 an increase in variation of extreme rainfall years by 10–20%, (4 and increase in temporal auto-correlation, i.e. increasing length and variation of periodic rainfall oscillations related to El Niño/La Niña phenomena. We evaluate the slope z of the time-shrub density relationship to quantify the population trend. For each climate change scenario we then compared the departure of z from typical stable population dynamics under current climatic conditions. Based on the simulation experiments we observed a positive population trend for scenario (1 and a negative trend for scenario (2. In terms of the projected rates of precipitation change for scenario (3 and (4 population dynamics were found to be relatively stable. However, for a larger increase in inter-annual variation or in temporal auto-correlation of rainfall population trends were negative, because favorable rainfall years had a limited positive impact due to the limited shrub carrying capacity. Conclusions We conclude that a possible increase in

  19. Modelling the impact of climate change on woody plant population dynamics in South African savanna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tews, Jörg; Jeltsch, Florian

    2004-12-17

    In Southern Africa savannas climate change has been proposed to alter rainfall, the most important environmental driver for woody plants. Woody plants are a major component of savanna vegetation determining rangeland condition and biodiversity. In this study we use a spatially explicit, stochastic computer model to assess the impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Grewia flava, a common, fleshy-fruited shrub species in the southern Kalahari. Understanding the population dynamics of Grewia flava is a crucial task, because it is widely involved in the shrub/bush encroachment process, a major concern for rangeland management due to its adverse effect on livestock carrying capacity and biodiversity. For our study we consider four climate change scenarios that have been proposed for the southern Kalahari for the coming decades: (1) an increase in annual precipitation by 30-40%, (2) a decrease by 5-15%, (3) an increase in variation of extreme rainfall years by 10-20%, (4) and increase in temporal auto-correlation, i.e. increasing length and variation of periodic rainfall oscillations related to El Nino/La Nina phenomena. We evaluate the slope z of the time-shrub density relationship to quantify the population trend. For each climate change scenario we then compared the departure of z from typical stable population dynamics under current climatic conditions. Based on the simulation experiments we observed a positive population trend for scenario (1) and a negative trend for scenario (2). In terms of the projected rates of precipitation change for scenario (3) and (4) population dynamics were found to be relatively stable. However, for a larger increase in inter-annual variation or in temporal auto-correlation of rainfall population trends were negative, because favorable rainfall years had a limited positive impact due to the limited shrub carrying capacity. We conclude that a possible increase in precipitation will strongly facilitate shrub encroachment

  20. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M; Edwards, Thomas C; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M

    2014-12-01

    Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate ( r ) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density ( N ) relate to occurrence probability ( P occ ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with P occ , while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with P occ . Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

  1. Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

    2013-01-01

    Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

  2. Computer Assisted Comprehension of Distant Worlds: Understanding Hunger Dynamics in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moseley, William G.

    2001-01-01

    Describes a computer program called RiskMap. Explains that after completing an assignment on rural economics and hunger dynamics in Africa, students showed an increased level of understanding and felt that using RiskMap was helpful in learning the material. Includes references. (DAJ)

  3. Biometrics Technology: Understanding Dynamics Influencing Adoption for Control of Identification Deception within Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nwatu, Gideon U.

    2011-01-01

    One of the objectives of any government is the establishment of an effective solution to significantly control crime. Identity fraud in Nigeria has generated global attention and negative publicity toward its citizens. The research problem addressed in this study was the lack of understanding of the dynamics that influenced the adoption and…

  4. Dynamic Graphics in Excel for Teaching Statistics: Understanding the Probability Density Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coll-Serrano, Vicente; Blasco-Blasco, Olga; Alvarez-Jareno, Jose A.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we show a dynamic graphic in Excel that is used to introduce an important concept in our subject, Statistics I: the probability density function. This interactive graphic seeks to facilitate conceptual understanding of the main aspects analysed by the learners.

  5. Population dynamics of caribou herds in southwestern Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Valkenburg

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available The five naturally occurring and one transplanted caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti herd in southwestern Alaska composed about 20% of Alaska's caribou population in 2001. All five of the naturally occurring herds fluctuated considerably in size between the late 1800s and 2001 and for some herds the data provide an indication of long-term periodic (40-50 year fluctuations. At the present time, the Unimak (UCH and Southern Alaska Peninsula (SAP are recovering from population declines, the Northern Alaska Peninsula Herd (NAP appears to be nearing the end of a protracted decline, and the Mulchatna Herd (MCH appears to now be declining after 20 years of rapid growth. The remaining naturally occurring herd (Kilbuck has virtually disappeared. Nutrition had a significant effect on the size of 4-month-old and 10-month-old calves in the NAP and the Nushagak Peninsula Herd (NPCH and probably also on population growth in at least 4 (SAP, NAP, NPCH, and MCH of the six caribou herds in southwestern Alaska. Predation does not appear to be sufficient to keep caribou herds in southwestern Alaska from expanding, probably because rabies is endemic in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes and is periodically transferred to wolves (Canis lupus and other canids. However, we found evidence that pneumonia and hoof rot may result in significant mortality of caribou in southwestern Alaska, whereas there is no evidence that disease is important in the dynamics of Interior herds. Cooperative conservation programs, such as the Kilbuck Caribou Management Plan, can be successful in restraining traditional harvest and promoting growth in caribou herds. In southwestern Alaska we also found evidence that small caribou herds can be swamped and assimilated by large herds, and fidelity to traditional calving areas can be lost.

  6. Phase control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Shi; Wu Jinhui; Gao Jinyue; Pan Chunliu

    2002-01-01

    We use the relative phase of two coherent fields for the control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system. The population inversion and gain with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer are shown as the relative phase is varied. We support our results by numerical calculation and analytical explanation

  7. Sensitivity Analysis for Assessing Effects of Tree Population Dynamics on Soil Bioturbation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Y. E.; Johnson, E. A.

    2012-12-01

    Bioturbation due to tree root throw is thought to be an important process in soil production and soil mixing. Despite progress in our understanding of root throw processes, the tree population dynamics affecting the occurrence and timing of root throw events remain much less well explained. Unfortunately, research about forest dynamics is not always undertaken from the perspective of those interested in tree death, tree topple and associated root throw. As a result, the necessary field data about tree population dynamics is often unavailable for many locations. The acquisition of such data would allow for improved interpretation of root throw observations and for incorporation within numerical models of tree root throw occurrence. The present study uses our earlier tree population dynamics model calibrated for subalpine forests in the Canadian Rockies to test the sensitivity of forest parameters within the model that determine tree death, tree topple, root throw and soil bioturbation. Crown wildfire disturbance is the primary driver of tree population dynamics, with wind throw being mainly of local importance. The recruitment and mortality of trees during multiple generations of forest determine the number of live trees on the landscape at any given time. Tree death may occur due to competition/thinning of trees between wildfire events or as a result of the wildfire itself. Unless trees die due to sudden wind throw events (as mentioned above, this is only of local significance in our study area), they remain standing for some time period after tree death and before tree topple; these trees are referred to as standing dead trees. The duration of this time window and several other factors influence if a tree breaks at its base or upheaves a relatively intact root plate with attached sediment. Our field research has also suggested that a minimum dbh is required before a root plate is large enough to upheave notable amounts of sediment. Modelling results in this study

  8. Dynamic use of geoscience information to develop scientific understanding for a nuclear waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, N.G.W.; Tsang, C.F.

    1990-01-01

    The development and safety evaluation of a nuclear waste geologic repository require a proper scientific understanding of the site response. Such scientific understanding depends on information from a number of geoscience disciplines, including geology, geophysics, geochemistry, geomechanics and hydrogeology. The information comes in four stages: (1) general regional survey data base, (2) surface-based testing, (3) exploratory shaft testing, and (4) repository construction and evaluation. A discussion is given on the dynamic use of the information through the different stages. We point out the need for abstracting, deriving and updating a quantitative spatial and process model (QSPM) to develop a scientific understanding of site responses as a crucial element in the dynamic procedure. 2 figs

  9. Biobanking for research: a survey of patient population attitudes and understanding

    OpenAIRE

    Rahm, Alanna Kulchak; Wrenn, Michelle; Carroll, Nikki M.; Feigelson, Heather Spencer

    2013-01-01

    Population-based biobanks are a critical resource for genetic research. It is important to know what potential participants understand about the risks and benefits of providing samples in order to ensure adequate informed consent. Kaiser Permanente Colorado (KPCO) is currently planning a biobank where adult members would be asked to contribute an additional tube of blood during a routine blood draw. Adult KPCO members in clinic waiting rooms were asked to read an informational brochure and in...

  10. Population dynamics of mallards breeding in eastern Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugger, Bruce D.; Coluccy, John M.; Dugger, Katie M.; Fox, Trevor T.; Kraege, Donald K.; Petrie, Mark J.

    2016-01-01

    Variation in regional population trends for mallards breeding in the western United States indicates that additional research into factors that influence demographics could contribute to management and understanding the population demographics of mallards across North America. We estimated breeding incidence and adult female, nest, and brood survival in eastern Washington in 2006 and 2007 by monitoring female mallards with radio telemetry and tested how those parameters were influenced by study year (2006 vs. 2007), landscape type (agricultural vs. natural), and age (second year [SY] vs. after second year [ASY]). We also investigated the effects of female body condition and capture date on breeding incidence, and nest initiation date and hatch date on nest and brood survival, respectively. We included population parameters in a stage-based demographic model and conducted a perturbation analysis to identify which vital rates were most influential on population growth rate (λ). Adult female survival was best modeled with a constant weekly survival rate (0.994, SE = 0.003). Breeding incidence differed between years and was higher for birds in better body condition. Nest survival was higher for ASY females (0.276, SE = 0.118) than SY females (0.066, SE = 0.052), and higher on publicly managed lands (0.383, SE = 0.212) than agricultural (0.114, SE = 0.058) landscapes. Brood survival was best modeled with a constant rate for the 7-week monitoring period (0.50, SE = 0.155). The single variable having the greatest influence on λ was non-breeding season survival, but the combination of parameters from the breeding grounds explained a greater percent of the variance in λ. Mallard population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in non-breeding survival, nest success, brood survival, and breeding incidence. Future management decisions should focus on activities that improve these vital rates if managers want to increase the production of

  11. Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

    2017-01-01

    There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

  12. The type VI secretion system impacts bacterial invasion and population dynamics in a model intestinal microbiota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Savannah L.; Shields, Drew S.; Hammer, Brian K.; Xavier, Joao B.; Parthasarathy, Raghuveer

    Animal gastrointestinal tracts are home to a diverse community of microbes. The mechanisms by which microbial species interact and compete in this dense, physically dynamic space are poorly understood, limiting our understanding of how natural communities are assembled and how different communities could be engineered. Here, we focus on a physical mechanism for competition: the type VI secretion system (T6SS). The T6SS is a syringe-like organelle used by certain bacteria to translocate effector proteins across the cell membranes of target bacterial cells, killing them. Here, we use T6SS+ and T6SS- strains of V. cholerae, the pathogen that causes cholera in humans, and light sheet fluorescence microscopy for in vivo imaging to show that the T6SS provides an advantage to strains colonizing the larval zebrafish gut. Furthermore, we show that T6SS+ bacteria can invade and alter an existing population of a different species in the zebrafish gut, reducing its abundance and changing the form of its population dynamics. This work both demonstrates a mechanism for altering the gut microbiota with an invasive species and explores the processes controlling the stability and dynamics of the gut ecosystem. Research Corporation, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and the Simons Foundation.

  13. A framework for studying transient dynamics of population projection matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Hodgson, David James

    2011-01-01

    Empirical models are central to effective conservation and population management, and should be predictive of real-world dynamics. Available modelling methods are diverse, but analysis usually focuses on long-term dynamics that are unable to describe the complicated short-term time series that ca...... of transient population density, but criticises the utility of established indices of convergence times. Our findings should guide further development of analyses of transient population dynamics using PPMs or other empirical modelling techniques....

  14. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  15. Impact of forestry practices at a landscape scale on the dynamics of amphibian populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Elizabeth B; Patrick, David A; Gibbs, James P

    2015-12-01

    Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma opacum, A. talpoideum, and A. maculatum) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clearcut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in forestry practices.

  16. Living in the branches: population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, E.H.C.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

    2007-01-01

    Spatial structure regulates and modifies processes at several levels of ecological organization (e.g. individual/genetic, population and community) and is thus a key component of complex systems, where knowledge at a small scale can be insufficient for understanding system behaviour at a larger scale. Recent syntheses outline potential applications of network theory to ecological systems, but do not address the implications of physical structure for network dynamics. There is a specific need to examine how dendritic habitat structure, such as that found in stream, hedgerow and cave networks, influences ecological processes. Although dendritic networks are one type of ecological network, they are distinguished by two fundamental characteristics: (1) both the branches and the nodes serve as habitat, and (2) the specific spatial arrangement and hierarchical organization of these elements interacts with a species' movement behaviour to alter patterns of population distribution and abundance, and community interactions. Here, we summarize existing theory relating to ecological dynamics in dendritic networks, review empirical studies examining the population- and community-level consequences of these networks, and suggest future research integrating spatial pattern and processes in dendritic systems.

  17. A Stochastic Framework for Modeling the Population Dynamics of Convective Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagos, Samson; Feng, Zhe; Plant, Robert S.; Houze, Robert A.; Xiao, Heng

    2018-02-01

    A stochastic prognostic framework for modeling the population dynamics of convective clouds and representing them in climate models is proposed. The framework follows the nonequilibrium statistical mechanical approach to constructing a master equation for representing the evolution of the number of convective cells of a specific size and their associated cloud-base mass flux, given a large-scale forcing. In this framework, referred to as STOchastic framework for Modeling Population dynamics of convective clouds (STOMP), the evolution of convective cell size is predicted from three key characteristics of convective cells: (i) the probability of growth, (ii) the probability of decay, and (iii) the cloud-base mass flux. STOMP models are constructed and evaluated against CPOL radar observations at Darwin and convection permitting model (CPM) simulations. Multiple models are constructed under various assumptions regarding these three key parameters and the realisms of these models are evaluated. It is shown that in a model where convective plumes prefer to aggregate spatially and the cloud-base mass flux is a nonlinear function of convective cell area, the mass flux manifests a recharge-discharge behavior under steady forcing. Such a model also produces observed behavior of convective cell populations and CPM simulated cloud-base mass flux variability under diurnally varying forcing. In addition to its use in developing understanding of convection processes and the controls on convective cell size distributions, this modeling framework is also designed to serve as a nonequilibrium closure formulations for spectral mass flux parameterizations.

  18. Understanding the Earth Systems: Expressions of Dynamic and Cyclic Thinking Among University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batzri, Or; Ben Zvi Assaraf, Orit; Cohen, Carmit; Orion, Nir

    2015-12-01

    In this two-part study, we examine undergraduate university students' expression of two important system thinking characteristics—dynamic thinking and cyclic thinking—focusing particularly on students of geology. The study was conducted using an Earth systems questionnaire designed to elicit and reflect either dynamic or cyclic thinking. The study's first part was quantitative. Its population consisted of a research group (223 students majoring in geology or physical geography) and a control group (312 students with no background in geology). The students were asked to rate their agreement with each statement on a Likert scale. Overall, the students in the research group expressed higher levels of dynamic thinking than those in the control group. The geology students showed relatively strong dynamic thinking toward the geosphere and hydrosphere, but not the biosphere. In cyclic thinking, their levels were significantly higher for all Earth systems, suggesting a connection between learning about different cycles in Earth systems, developing cyclic thinking and applying it to other Earth cycles. The second part was qualitative and administered only to the students who majored in geology. They were asked to freely explain their answers to the questionnaire's statements. Our aim was to identify recurring patterns in how these students express their dynamic and cyclic thinking. Their explanations were given to four experts in the field of Earth science, who then presented, in a semi-structured interview, the recurring characteristics of dynamic thinking that they found in the students' explanations.

  19. Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes and associated damage to potato

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schans, J.

    1993-01-01

    Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes (PCN; Globoderarostochiensis (Woll.) Skarbilovich and G. pallida Stone) and their interactions with potato plants are insufficiently understood to explain variations of population

  20. Density dependence and population dynamics of black rhinos (Diceros bicornis michaeli) in Kenya's rhino sanctuaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouma, B.O.; Amin, R.; Langevelde, van F.; Leader-Williams, N.

    2010-01-01

    Density-dependent feedback mechanisms provide insights into the population dynamics and interactions of large herbivores with their ecosystem. Sex ratio also has particularly important implications for growth rates of many large mammal populations through its influence on reproductive potential.

  1. Elucidating Cellular Population Dynamics by Molecular Density Function Perturbations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanneer Malai Perumal

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Studies performed at single-cell resolution have demonstrated the physiological significance of cell-to-cell variability. Various types of mathematical models and systems analyses of biological networks have further been used to gain a better understanding of the sources and regulatory mechanisms of such variability. In this work, we present a novel sensitivity analysis method, called molecular density function perturbation (MDFP, for the dynamical analysis of cellular heterogeneity. The proposed analysis is based on introducing perturbations to the density or distribution function of the cellular state variables at specific time points, and quantifying how such perturbations affect the state distribution at later time points. We applied the MDFP analysis to a model of a signal transduction pathway involving TRAIL (tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand-induced apoptosis in HeLa cells. The MDFP analysis shows that caspase-8 activation regulates the timing of the switch-like increase of cPARP (cleaved poly(ADP-ribose polymerase, an indicator of apoptosis. Meanwhile, the cell-to-cell variability in the commitment to apoptosis depends on mitochondrial outer membrane permeabilization (MOMP and events following MOMP, including the release of Smac (second mitochondria-derived activator of caspases and cytochrome c from mitochondria, the inhibition of XIAP (X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis by Smac, and the formation of the apoptosome.

  2. Restoration of oyster reefs in an estuarine lake: population dynamics and shell accretion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas, Sandra M.; La Peyre, Jerome F.; La Peyre, Megan K.

    2015-01-01

    Restoration activities inherently depend on understanding the spatial and temporal variation in basic demographic rates of the species of interest. For species that modify and maintain their own habitat such as the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica, understanding demographic rates and their impacts on population and habitat success are crucial to ensuring restoration success. We measured oyster recruitment, density, size distribution, biomass, mortality and Perkinsus marinus infection intensity quarterly for 3 yr on shallow intertidal reefs created with shell cultch in March 2009. All reefs were located within Sister Lake, LA. Reefs were placed in pairs at 3 different locations within the lake; pairs were placed in low and medium energy sites within each location. Restored reefs placed within close proximity (14.6 kg m-2) at the end of 3 yr. Shell accretion, on average, exceeded estimated rates required to keep pace with local subsidence and shell loss. Variation in recruitment, growth and survival drives local site-specific population success, which highlights the need to understand local water quality, hydrodynamics, and metapopulation dynamics when planning restoration.

  3. Population, Environment, and Climate in the Albertine Rift: Understanding Local Impacts of Regional Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartter, J.; Ryan, S. J.; Diem, J.; Palace, M. W.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is of critical concern for conservation and to develop appropriate policies and responses, it is important not only to anticipate the nature of changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local people. The Albertine Rift in East Africa is one of the most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense settlement, extreme poverty, and land conversion. We synthesize ongoing NSF-CNH research, where Ugandan park landscapes are examined to understand the impacts of climate change on livelihoods. Kibale National Park, the main study site, exemplifies the challenges facing many parks because of its isolation within a densely populated agricultural landscape. Three separate household surveys (n=251, 130, 100) reveal that the most perceived benefits provided by Kibale were ecosystem services and farmers cite rainfall as one of the park's most important benefits, but are also concerned with variable precipitation. Analysis of 30+ years of daily rainfall station data shows total rainfall has not changed significantly, but timing and transitions of seasons and intra-seasonal distribution are highly variable, which may contribute to changes in farming schedules and threaten food security. Further, the contrast between land use/cover change over 25 years around the park and the stability of forest within the park underscores the need to understand this landscape for future sustainability planning and the inevitable population growth outside its boundaries. Understanding climate change impacts and feedbacks to and from socio-ecological systems are important to address the dual challenge of biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation.

  4. Young children’s understanding of angles in a dynamic geometry environment

    OpenAIRE

    Kaur, Harpreet

    2017-01-01

    Angle is an important topic in geometry. It is a concept that children find challenging to learn, in part because of its multifaceted nature. The purpose of this study is to understand how children’s thinking about angles evolves as they participate in a classroom setting featuring the use of a dynamic geometry environment (DGE) in which the concept of angle as turn was privileged, a concept that does not require a quantitative dimension. Three research questions were proposed for the study, ...

  5. Spatiotemporal Anopheles Population Dynamics, Response to Climatic Conditions: The Case of Chabahar, South Baluchistan, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Halimi, Mansour; Ghavidel, Yousef; Delavari, Mahdi

    2015-01-01

    An understanding of the factors that affect the abundance of Anopheline species provides an opportunity to better understand the dynamics of malaria transmission in different regions. Chabahar, located south east of Iran, is the most malarious region in the country. The main aim of this study was to quantify the spatiotemporal Anopheles population dynamics, response to climatic conditions in Chabahar. Satellite-based and land-based climatic data were used as explanatory variables. Monthly caught mosquitoes in 6 village sites of Chabahar were used as dependent variable. The spatiotemporal associations were first investigated by inspection of scatter plots and single variable regression analysis. A multivariate linear regression model was developed to reveal the association between environmental variables and the monthly mosquito abundance at a 95% confidence level (P ≤ 0.5). Results indicated that Anopheles mosquitoes can be found all year in Chabahar with 2 significant seasonal peaks from March to June (primary peak) and September to November (secondary peak). Results of the present study showed that 0.77 of yearly mosquito abundance emerges in the thermal range of 24°C to 30°C and the humidity range of 0.70 to 0.80 in Chabahar. According to the developed multivariate linear model, 0.88 of temporal variance of mosquito abundance, nighttime land surface temperature, and relative humidity of 15 Universal Time Coordinated (18.30 Iran) are the main drivers of mosquito population dynamics in Chabahar. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Effective population size dynamics and the demographic collapse of Bornean orang-utans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reeta Sharma

    Full Text Available Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200-2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and

  7. Effective population size dynamics and the demographic collapse of Bornean orang-utans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Reeta; Arora, Natasha; Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W; Van Schaik, Carel P; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200-2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess

  8. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend

  9. Cycle length restitution in sinoatrial node cells: a theory for understanding spontaneous action potential dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patric Glynn

    Full Text Available Normal heart rhythm (sinus rhythm is governed by the sinoatrial node, a specialized and highly heterogeneous collection of spontaneously active myocytes in the right atrium. Sinoatrial node dysfunction, characterized by slow and/or asynchronous pacemaker activity and even failure, is associated with cardiovascular disease (e.g. heart failure, atrial fibrillation. While tremendous progress has been made in understanding the molecular and ionic basis of automaticity in sinoatrial node cells, the dynamics governing sinoatrial nodel cell synchrony and overall pacemaker function remain unclear. Here, a well-validated computational model of the mouse sinoatrial node cell is used to test the hypothesis that sinoatrial node cell dynamics reflect an inherent restitution property (cycle length restitution that may give rise to a wide range of behavior from regular periodicity to highly complex, irregular activation. Computer simulations are performed to determine the cycle length restitution curve in the computational model using a newly defined voltage pulse protocol. The ability of the restitution curve to predict sinoatrial node cell dynamics (e.g., the emergence of irregular spontaneous activity and susceptibility to termination is evaluated. Finally, ionic and tissue level factors (e.g. ion channel conductances, ion concentrations, cell-to-cell coupling that influence restitution and sinoatrial node cell dynamics are explored. Together, these findings suggest that cycle length restitution may be a useful tool for analyzing cell dynamics and dysfunction in the sinoatrial node.

  10. Geographic coupling of juvenile and adult habitat shapes spatial population dynamics of a coral reef fish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbers, C.M.; Nagelekerken, I.; Debrot, A.O.; Jongejans, E.

    2013-01-01

    Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived

  11. Using chemistry and microfluidics to understand the spatial dynamics of complex biological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kastrup, Christian J; Runyon, Matthew K; Lucchetta, Elena M; Price, Jessica M; Ismagilov, Rustem F

    2008-04-01

    Understanding the spatial dynamics of biochemical networks is both fundamentally important for understanding life at the systems level and also has practical implications for medicine, engineering, biology, and chemistry. Studies at the level of individual reactions provide essential information about the function, interactions, and localization of individual molecular species and reactions in a network. However, analyzing the spatial dynamics of complex biochemical networks at this level is difficult. Biochemical networks are nonequilibrium systems containing dozens to hundreds of reactions with nonlinear and time-dependent interactions, and these interactions are influenced by diffusion, flow, and the relative values of state-dependent kinetic parameters. To achieve an overall understanding of the spatial dynamics of a network and the global mechanisms that drive its function, networks must be analyzed as a whole, where all of the components and influential parameters of a network are simultaneously considered. Here, we describe chemical concepts and microfluidic tools developed for network-level investigations of the spatial dynamics of these networks. Modular approaches can be used to simplify these networks by separating them into modules, and simple experimental or computational models can be created by replacing each module with a single reaction. Microfluidics can be used to implement these models as well as to analyze and perturb the complex network itself with spatial control on the micrometer scale. We also describe the application of these network-level approaches to elucidate the mechanisms governing the spatial dynamics of two networkshemostasis (blood clotting) and early patterning of the Drosophila embryo. To investigate the dynamics of the complex network of hemostasis, we simplified the network by using a modular mechanism and created a chemical model based on this mechanism by using microfluidics. Then, we used the mechanism and the model to

  12. Retrospective Analysis of Communication Events - Understanding the Dynamics of Collaborative Multi-Party Discourse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowell, Andrew J.; Haack, Jereme N.; McColgin, Dave W.

    2006-06-08

    This research is aimed at understanding the dynamics of collaborative multi-party discourse across multiple communication modalities. Before we can truly make sig-nificant strides in devising collaborative communication systems, there is a need to understand how typical users utilize com-putationally supported communications mechanisms such as email, instant mes-saging, video conferencing, chat rooms, etc., both singularly and in conjunction with traditional means of communication such as face-to-face meetings, telephone calls and postal mail. Attempting to un-derstand an individual’s communications profile with access to only a single modal-ity is challenging at best and often futile. Here, we discuss the development of RACE – Retrospective Analysis of Com-munications Events – a test-bed prototype to investigate issues relating to multi-modal multi-party discourse.

  13. Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of Bactrocera oleae (Rossi) infestations using decade-long agrometeorological time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchi, Susanna; Guidotti, Diego; Ricciolini, Massimo; Petacchi, Ruggero

    2016-11-01

    Insect dynamics depend on temperature patterns, and therefore, global warming may lead to increasing frequencies and intensities of insect outbreaks. The aim of this work was to analyze the dynamics of the olive fruit fly, Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), in Tuscany (Italy). We profited from long-term records of insect infestation and weather data available from the regional database and agrometeorological network. We tested whether the analysis of 13 years of monitoring campaigns can be used as basis for prediction models of B. oleae infestation. We related the percentage of infestation observed in the first part of the host-pest interaction and throughout the whole year to agrometeorological indices formulated for different time periods. A two-step approach was adopted to inspect the effect of weather on infestation: generalized linear model with a binomial error distribution and principal component regression to reduce the number of the agrometeorological factors and remove their collinearity. We found a consistent relationship between the degree of infestation and the temperature-based indices calculated for the previous period. The relationship was stronger with the minimum temperature of winter season. Higher infestation was observed in years following warmer winters. The temperature of the previous winter and spring explained 66 % of variance of early-season infestation. The temperature of previous winter and spring, and current summer, explained 72 % of variance of total annual infestation. These results highlight the importance of multiannual monitoring activity to fully understand the dynamics of B. oleae populations at a regional scale.

  14. Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Alicia M.; Garcia, Andres J.; Focks, Dana A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

    2011-01-01

    Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority. PMID:21813844

  15. Dynamic of population-dynamics in a medically important snail species Lymnaea (Radix Luteola (Lamarck

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. K. Misra

    1993-09-01

    Full Text Available The life-cycle parameters of the snail Lymnaea (Radix luteola and the factors influencing the same have been studied under laboratory conditions. Ins each month, from July 1990 to June 1991, a batch of 100 zero-day old individual were considered for studies. The snails of April batch survived for 19.42 days while those in December batch survived for 87.45 days. The May batch individual though survived for 65.67 days gained maximum shell size (15.84 mm in length and body weight (419.87 mg. All individuals of April batch died prior to attainment of sexual maturity. In the remaining 11 batches the snails became sexually mature between 32 and 53 days. At this stage, they were with varying shell lengths, 9.3 mm to 13,11 mm in respect to batches. The reproduction period varied from 1-67 days. An individual laid, on an average, 0,25 (March batch to 443.67 (May batch eggs in its life-span. A batch of such snails would leave 24312, 22520, 720268, 80408, 76067, 418165, 214, 9202, 0, 0, 2459386 and 127894 individuals at the end of 352nd day. Since the environmental conditions were almost similar the 'dynamic' of population dynamics seems to be involved with the 'strain' of the snail individuals of the batches concerned.

  16. Computational Cellular Dynamics Based on the Chemical Master Equation: A Challenge for Understanding Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Jie; Qian, Hong

    2010-01-01

    Modern molecular biology has always been a great source of inspiration for computational science. Half a century ago, the challenge from understanding macromolecular dynamics has led the way for computations to be part of the tool set to study molecular biology. Twenty-five years ago, the demand from genome science has inspired an entire generation of computer scientists with an interest in discrete mathematics to join the field that is now called bioinformatics. In this paper, we shall lay out a new mathematical theory for dynamics of biochemical reaction systems in a small volume (i.e., mesoscopic) in terms of a stochastic, discrete-state continuous-time formulation, called the chemical master equation (CME). Similar to the wavefunction in quantum mechanics, the dynamically changing probability landscape associated with the state space provides a fundamental characterization of the biochemical reaction system. The stochastic trajectories of the dynamics are best known through the simulations using the Gillespie algorithm. In contrast to the Metropolis algorithm, this Monte Carlo sampling technique does not follow a process with detailed balance. We shall show several examples how CMEs are used to model cellular biochemical systems. We shall also illustrate the computational challenges involved: multiscale phenomena, the interplay between stochasticity and nonlinearity, and how macroscopic determinism arises from mesoscopic dynamics. We point out recent advances in computing solutions to the CME, including exact solution of the steady state landscape and stochastic differential equations that offer alternatives to the Gilespie algorithm. We argue that the CME is an ideal system from which one can learn to understand “complex behavior” and complexity theory, and from which important biological insight can be gained. PMID:24999297

  17. Population dynamics of Armigeres subalbatus (Diptera: Culicidae) across a temperate altitudinal gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaves, L F; Imanishi, N; Hoshi, T

    2015-10-01

    Understanding the impacts of weather fluctuations, and environmental gradients, on the abundance of vectors is fundamental to grasp the dynamic nature of the entomological risk for disease transmission. The mosquito Armigeres subalbatus (Coquillet) is a common vector of filariasis. Nevertheless, its population dynamics have been relatively poorly studied. Here, we present results from a season long study where we studied spatio-temporal abundance patterns of Ar. subalbatus across the altitudinal gradient of Mt. Konpira in Nagasaki, Japan. Spatially, we found that abundance of adult Ar. subalbatus decreased with altitude and increased in areas where the ground was rich in leaf litter. Similarly, adult activity was observed only when relative humidity was over 65%. Temporally, we found that peaks in abundance followed large rainfall events. Nevertheless, this mosquito was under significant density dependence regulation. Our results suggest that Ar. subalbatus population peaks following large rainfall events could reflect the recruitment of individuals that were dormant as dry eggs. We did not find a clear signal of temperature on abundance changes of this mosquito, but only on its phenology. Since ground cover seemed more critical than temperature to its spatial distribution, we propose that this mosquito might have some degree of autonomy to changes in temperature.

  18. The Impact of Mine Closures on Rural Population Dynamics: The ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper examines the demographic and socio-cultural impact of spontaneous population inflows into Zhombe following the closure of the Empress Mine in 1982. Data was collected using a questionnaire survey. Results of the study show that mine closures cause rural population change. The population directly grows ...

  19. DYNAMICS OF Cercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    Type II) populations in maize (Zea mays) producing areas under Uganda conditions. Populations of the fungus ... years of study the impact of selection and genetic drift on C. zeina populations in the two Ugandan agroecologies is slow, but progressive ..... measures the probability of obtaining two different alleles at a locus ...

  20. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Census population size, sex-ratio and female reproductive success were monitored in 10 laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster selected for different ages of reproduction. With this demographic information, we estimated eigenvalue, variance and probability of allele loss effective population sizes. We conclude ...

  1. On the apllication of single specie dynamic population model | Iguda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Method of mathematical models of Malthus and Verhults were applied on ten years data collected from Magaram Poultry Farm to determine the nature of population growth, population decay or constant ... Keywords: Birth rate, sustainable population, overcrowding, harvesting, independent t-test and one way Anova.

  2. Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerio Bartolino

    Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.

  3. Tree Population Dynamics on a Floodplain: A Tradeoff between Tree Mortality and Seedling Recruitment Induced by Stochastic Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyamoto, H.; Kimura, R.

    2016-12-01

    This presentation proposes a stochastic evaluation method for examining tree population states in a river cross section using an integrated model with Monte Carlo simulation. The integrated model consists of four processes as sub-models, i.e., tree population dynamics, flow discharge stochasticity, stream hydraulics, and channel geomorphology. A floodplain of the Kako River in Japan was examined as a test site, which is currently well vegetated and features many willows that have been growing in both individual size and overall population over the last several decades. The model was used to stochastically evaluate the effects of hydrologic and geomorphologic changes on tree population dynamics through the Monte Carlo simulation. The effects including the magnitude of flood impacts and the relative change in the floodplain level are examined using very simple scenarios for flow regulation, climate change, and channel form changes. The stochastic evaluation method revealed a tradeoff point in floodplain levels, at which the tendency of a fully vegetated state switches to that of a bare floodplain under small impacts of flood. It is concluded from these results that the states of tree population in a floodplain can be determined by the mutual interactions among flood impacts, seedling recruitment, tree growth, and channel geomorphology. These interactions make it difficult to obtain a basic understanding of tree population dynamics from a field study of a specific floodplain. The stochastic approach used in this presentation could constitute an effective method for evaluating fundamental channel characteristics for a vegetated floodplain.

  4. Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonzén, Niclas; Pople, Tony; Knape, Jonas; Sköld, Martin

    2010-01-01

    1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates. 3. Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate. 4. Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in long-lived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates. 5. Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c. 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c. 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.

  5. Toward Understanding the Dynamics of Microbial Communities in an Estuarine System

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Weipeng

    2014-04-14

    Community assembly theories such as species sorting theory provide a framework for understanding the structures and dynamics of local communities. The effect of theoretical mechanisms can vary with the scales of observation and effects of specific environmental factors. Based on 16S rRNA gene tag pyrosequencing, different structures and temporal succession patterns were discovered between the surface sediments and bottom water microbial communities in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE). The microbial communities in the surface sediment samples were more diverse than those in the bottom water samples, and several genera were specific for the water or sediment communities. Moreover, water temperature was identified as the main variable driving community dynamics and the microbial communities in the sediment showed a greater temporal change. We speculate that nutrient-based species sorting and bacterial plasticity to the temperature contribute to the variations observed between sediment and water communities in the PRE. This study provides a more comprehensive understanding of the microbial community structures in a highly dynamic estuarine system and sheds light on the applicability of ecological theoretical mechanisms.

  6. Toward understanding the dynamics of microbial communities in an estuarine system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weipeng Zhang

    Full Text Available Community assembly theories such as species sorting theory provide a framework for understanding the structures and dynamics of local communities. The effect of theoretical mechanisms can vary with the scales of observation and effects of specific environmental factors. Based on 16S rRNA gene tag pyrosequencing, different structures and temporal succession patterns were discovered between the surface sediments and bottom water microbial communities in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE. The microbial communities in the surface sediment samples were more diverse than those in the bottom water samples, and several genera were specific for the water or sediment communities. Moreover, water temperature was identified as the main variable driving community dynamics and the microbial communities in the sediment showed a greater temporal change. We speculate that nutrient-based species sorting and bacterial plasticity to the temperature contribute to the variations observed between sediment and water communities in the PRE. This study provides a more comprehensive understanding of the microbial community structures in a highly dynamic estuarine system and sheds light on the applicability of ecological theoretical mechanisms.

  7. Understanding Angiography-Based Aneurysm Flow Fields through Comparison with Computational Fluid Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cebral, J R; Mut, F; Chung, B J; Spelle, L; Moret, J; van Nijnatten, F; Ruijters, D

    2017-06-01

    Hemodynamics is thought to be an important factor for aneurysm progression and rupture. Our aim was to evaluate whether flow fields reconstructed from dynamic angiography data can be used to realistically represent the main flow structures in intracranial aneurysms. DSA-based flow reconstructions, obtained during interventional treatment, were compared qualitatively with flow fields obtained from patient-specific computational fluid dynamics models and quantitatively with projections of the computational fluid dynamics fields (by computing a directional similarity of the vector fields) in 15 cerebral aneurysms. The average similarity between the DSA and the projected computational fluid dynamics flow fields was 78% in the parent artery, while it was only 30% in the aneurysm region. Qualitatively, both the DSA and projected computational fluid dynamics flow fields captured the location of the inflow jet, the main vortex structure, the intrasaccular flow split, and the main rotation direction in approximately 60% of the cases. Several factors affect the reconstruction of 2D flow fields from dynamic angiography sequences. The most important factors are the 3-dimensionality of the intrasaccular flow patterns and inflow jets, the alignment of the main vortex structure with the line of sight, the overlapping of surrounding vessels, and possibly frame rate undersampling. Flow visualization with DSA from >1 projection is required for understanding of the 3D intrasaccular flow patterns. Although these DSA-based flow quantification techniques do not capture swirling or secondary flows in the parent artery, they still provide a good representation of the mean axial flow and the corresponding flow rate. © 2017 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  8. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  9. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-01-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan

  10. [Nonlinear effects on population dynamics related to age structure and fishery impact].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frisman, E Ia; Last, E V

    2005-01-01

    Population dynamics of commercial fish populations with an age structure was studied by the example of salmons. The relationship between the amount of catch on fishing efforts and total abundance of a stock fished is described by a nonlinear "trophic" function. Special attention is given to the analysis of population dynamics stability under conditions for maximum profit. Simulation results are compared to statistical data on the catch of Pacific salmon species in the Bering Sea.

  11. Real-Time G-Protein-Coupled Receptor Imaging to Understand and Quantify Receptor Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María S. Aymerich

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the trafficking of G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs and their regulation by agonists and antagonists is fundamental to develop more effective drugs. Optical methods using fluorescent-tagged receptors and spinning disk confocal microscopy are useful tools to investigate membrane receptor dynamics in living cells. The aim of this study was to develop a method to characterize receptor dynamics using this system which offers the advantage of very fast image acquisition with minimal cell perturbation. However, in short-term assays photobleaching was still a problem. Thus, we developed a procedure to perform a photobleaching-corrected image analysis. A study of short-term dynamics of the long isoform of the dopamine type 2 receptor revealed an agonist-induced increase in the mobile fraction of receptors with a rate of movement of 0.08 μm/s For long-term assays, the ratio between the relative fluorescence intensity at the cell surface versus that in the intracellular compartment indicated that receptor internalization only occurred in cells co-expressing G protein-coupled receptor kinase 2. These results indicate that the lateral movement of receptors and receptor internalization are not directly coupled. Thus, we believe that live imaging of GPCRs using spinning disk confocal image analysis constitutes a powerful tool to study of receptor dynamics.

  12. An introduction to mathematical population dynamics along the trail of Volterra and Lotka

    CERN Document Server

    Iannelli, Mimmo

    2014-01-01

    This book is an introduction to mathematical biology for students with no experience in biology, but who have some mathematical background. The work is focused on population dynamics and ecology, following a tradition that goes back to Lotka and Volterra, and includes a part devoted to the spread of infectious diseases, a field where mathematical modeling is extremely popular. These themes are used as the area where to understand different types of mathematical modeling and the possible meaning of qualitative agreement of modeling with data. The book also includes a collections of problems designed to approach more advanced questions. This material has been used in the courses at the University of Trento, directed at students in their fourth year of studies in Mathematics. It can also be used as a reference as it provides up-to-date developments in several areas.

  13. Combined Population Dynamics and Entropy Modelling Supports Patient Stratification in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brehme, Marc; Koschmieder, Steffen; Montazeri, Maryam; Copland, Mhairi; Oehler, Vivian G.; Radich, Jerald P.; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Schuppert, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Modelling the parameters of multistep carcinogenesis is key for a better understanding of cancer progression, biomarker identification and the design of individualized therapies. Using chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) as a paradigm for hierarchical disease evolution we show that combined population dynamic modelling and CML patient biopsy genomic analysis enables patient stratification at unprecedented resolution. Linking CD34+ similarity as a disease progression marker to patient-derived gene expression entropy separated established CML progression stages and uncovered additional heterogeneity within disease stages. Importantly, our patient data informed model enables quantitative approximation of individual patients’ disease history within chronic phase (CP) and significantly separates “early” from “late” CP. Our findings provide a novel rationale for personalized and genome-informed disease progression risk assessment that is independent and complementary to conventional measures of CML disease burden and prognosis.

  14. Understanding role of genome dynamics in host adaptation of gut commensal, L. reuteri

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shikha Sharma

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Lactobacillus reuteri is a gram-positive gut commensal and exhibits noteworthy adaptation to its vertebrate hosts. Host adaptation is often driven by inter-strain genome dynamics like expansion of insertion sequences that lead to acquisition and loss of gene(s and creation of large dynamic regions. In this regard we carried in-house genome sequencing of large number of L. reuteri strains origination from human, chicken, pig and rodents. We further next generation sequence data in understanding invasion and expansion of an IS element in shaping genome of strains belonging to human associated lineage. Finally, we share our experience in high-throughput genomic library preparation and generating high quality sequence data of a very low GC bacterium like L. reuteri.

  15. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  16. Intraspecific Competition and Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paixão, C. A.; Charret, I. C.; Lima, R. R.

    2012-04-01

    We report computational simulations for the evolution of the population of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The results suggest that controlling the mosquito population, on the basis of intraspecific competition at the larval stage, can be an efficient mechanism for controlling the spread of the epidemic. The results also show the presence of a kind of genetic evolution in vector population, which results mainly in increasing the average lifespan of individuals in adulthood.

  17. The utility of simple mathematical models in understanding gene regulatory dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Michael C.; Santillán, Moisés; Tyran-Kamińska, Marta; Zeron, Eduardo S.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract In this review, we survey work that has been carried out in the attempts of biomathematicians to understand the dynamic behaviour of simple bacterial operons starting with the initial work of the 1960’s. We concentrate on the simplest of situations, discussing both repressible and inducible systems and then turning to concrete examples related to the biology of the lactose and tryptophan operons. We conclude with a brief discussion of the role of both extrinsic noise and so-called intrinsic noise in the form of translational and/or transcriptional bursting. PMID:25402755

  18. Population dynamics of pond zooplankton, I. Diaptomus pallidus Herrick

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.; Angino, E.E.

    1973-01-01

    The simultaneous and lag relationships between 27 environmental variables and seven population components of a perennial calanoid copepod were examined by simple and partial correlations and stepwise regression. The analyses consistently explained more than 70% of the variation of a population component. The multiple correlation coefficient (R) usually was highest in no lag or in 3-week or 4-week lag except for clutch size in which R was highest in 1-week lag. Population control, egg-bearing, and clutch size were affected primarily by environmental components categorized as weather; food apparently was relatively minor in affecting population control or reproduction. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk B.V. Publishers.

  19. Understanding Dynamic Model Validation of a Wind Turbine Generator and a Wind Power Plant: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, Eduard; Zhang, Ying Chen; Gevorgian, Vahan; Kosterev, Dmitry

    2016-09-01

    Regional reliability organizations require power plants to validate the dynamic models that represent them to ensure that power systems studies are performed to the best representation of the components installed. In the process of validating a wind power plant (WPP), one must be cognizant of the parameter settings of the wind turbine generators (WTGs) and the operational settings of the WPP. Validating the dynamic model of a WPP is required to be performed periodically. This is because the control parameters of the WTGs and the other supporting components within a WPP may be modified to comply with new grid codes or upgrades to the WTG controller with new capabilities developed by the turbine manufacturers or requested by the plant owners or operators. The diversity within a WPP affects the way we represent it in a model. Diversity within a WPP may be found in the way the WTGs are controlled, the wind resource, the layout of the WPP (electrical diversity), and the type of WTGs used. Each group of WTGs constitutes a significant portion of the output power of the WPP, and their unique and salient behaviors should be represented individually. The objective of this paper is to illustrate the process of dynamic model validations of WTGs and WPPs, the available data recorded that must be screened before it is used for the dynamic validations, and the assumptions made in the dynamic models of the WTG and WPP that must be understood. Without understanding the correct process, the validations may lead to the wrong representations of the WTG and WPP modeled.

  20. Asymmetric Dynamic Attunement of Speech and Gestures in the Construction of Children's Understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Jonge-Hoekstra, Lisette; Van der Steen, Steffie; Van Geert, Paul; Cox, Ralf F A

    2016-01-01

    As children learn they use their speech to express words and their hands to gesture. This study investigates the interplay between real-time gestures and speech as children construct cognitive understanding during a hands-on science task. 12 children (M = 6, F = 6) from Kindergarten (n = 5) and first grade (n = 7) participated in this study. Each verbal utterance and gesture during the task were coded, on a complexity scale derived from dynamic skill theory. To explore the interplay between speech and gestures, we applied a cross recurrence quantification analysis (CRQA) to the two coupled time series of the skill levels of verbalizations and gestures. The analysis focused on (1) the temporal relation between gestures and speech, (2) the relative strength and direction of the interaction between gestures and speech, (3) the relative strength and direction between gestures and speech for different levels of understanding, and (4) relations between CRQA measures and other child characteristics. The results show that older and younger children differ in the (temporal) asymmetry in the gestures-speech interaction. For younger children, the balance leans more toward gestures leading speech in time, while the balance leans more toward speech leading gestures for older children. Secondly, at the group level, speech attracts gestures in a more dynamically stable fashion than vice versa, and this asymmetry in gestures and speech extends to lower and higher understanding levels. Yet, for older children, the mutual coupling between gestures and speech is more dynamically stable regarding the higher understanding levels. Gestures and speech are more synchronized in time as children are older. A higher score on schools' language tests is related to speech attracting gestures more rigidly and more asymmetry between gestures and speech, only for the less difficult understanding levels. A higher score on math or past science tasks is related to less asymmetry between gestures and

  1. Asymmetric dynamic attunement of speech and gestures in the construction of children’s understanding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisette eDe Jonge-Hoekstra

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available As children learn they use their speech to express words and their hands to gesture. This study investigates the interplay between real-time gestures and speech as children construct cognitive understanding during a hands-on science task. 12 children (M = 6, F = 6 from Kindergarten (n = 5 and first grade (n = 7 participated in this study. Each verbal utterance and gesture during the task were coded, on a complexity scale derived from dynamic skill theory. To explore the interplay between speech and gestures, we applied a cross recurrence quantification analysis (CRQA to the two coupled time series of the skill levels of verbalizations and gestures. The analysis focused on 1 the temporal relation between gestures and speech, 2 the relative strength and direction of the interaction between gestures and speech, 3 the relative strength and direction between gestures and speech for different levels of understanding, and 4 relations between CRQA measures and other child characteristics. The results show that older and younger children differ in the (temporal asymmetry in the gestures-speech interaction. For younger children, the balance leans more towards gestures leading speech in time, while the balance leans more towards speech leading gestures for older children. Secondly, at the group level, speech attracts gestures in a more dynamically stable fashion than vice versa, and this asymmetry in gestures and speech extends to lower and higher understanding levels. Yet, for older children, the mutual coupling between gestures and speech is more dynamically stable regarding the higher understanding levels. Gestures and speech are more synchronized in time as children are older. A higher score on schools’ language tests is related to speech attracting gestures more rigidly and more asymmetry between gestures and speech, only for the less difficult understanding levels. A higher score on math or past science tasks is related to less asymmetry between

  2. There's a World Going on Underground: Imaging Technologies to Understand Root Growth Dynamics and Rhizosphere Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topp, C. N.

    2016-12-01

    Our ability to harness the power of plant genomics for basic and applied science depends on how well and how fast we can quantify the phenotypic ramifications of genetic variation. Plants can be considered from many vantage points: at scales from cells to organs, over the course of development or evolution, and from biophysical, physiological, and ecological perspectives. In all of these ways, our understanding of plant form and function is greatly limited by our ability to study subterranean structures and processes. The limitations to accessing this knowledge are well known - soil is opaque, roots are morphologically complex, and root growth can be heavily influenced by a myriad of environmental factors. Nonetheless, recent technological innovations in imaging science have generated a renewed focus on roots and thus new opportunities to understand the plant as a whole. The Topp Lab is interested in crop root system growth dynamics and function in response to environmental stresses such as drought, rhizosphere interactions, and as a consequence of artificial selection for agronomically important traits such as nitrogen uptake and high plant density. Studying roots requires the development of imaging technologies, computational infrastructure, and statistical methods that can capture and analyze morphologically complex networks over time and at high-throughput. The lab uses several imaging tools (optical, X-ray CT, PET, etc.) along with quantitative genetics and molecular biology to understand the dynamics of root growth and physiology. We aim to understand the relationships among root traits that can be effectively measured both in controlled laboratory environments and in the field, and to identify genes and gene networks that control root, and ultimately whole plant architectural features useful for crop improvement.

  3. Fish and fire: Post-wildfire sediment dynamics and implications for the viability of trout populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, B. P.; Czuba, J. A.; Belmont, P.; Budy, P.; Finch, C.

    2017-12-01

    Episodic events in steep landscapes, such as wildfire and mass wasting, contribute large pulses of sediment to rivers and can significantly alter the quality and connectivity of fish habitat. Understanding where these sediment inputs occur, how they are transported and processed through the watershed, and their geomorphic effect on the river network is critical to predicting the impact on ecological aquatic communities. The Tushar Mountains of southern Utah experienced a severe wildfire in 2010, resulting in numerous debris flows and the extirpation of trout populations. Following many years of habitat and ecological monitoring in the field, we have developed a modeling framework that links post-wildfire debris flows, fluvial sediment routing, and population ecology in order to evaluate the impact and response of trout to wildfire. First, using the Tushar topographic and wildfire parameters, as well as stochastic precipitation generation, we predict the post-wildfire debris flow probabilities and volumes of mainstem tributaries using the Cannon et al. [2010] model. This produces episodic hillslope sediment inputs, which are delivered to a fluvial sediment, river-network routing model (modified from Czuba et al. [2017]). In this updated model, sediment transport dynamics are driven by time-varying discharge associated with the stochastic precipitation generation, include multiple grain sizes (including gravel), use mixed-size transport equations (Wilcock & Crowe [2003]), and incorporate channel slope adjustments with aggradation and degradation. Finally, with the spatially explicit adjustments in channel bed elevation and grain size, we utilize a new population viability analysis (PVA) model to predict the impact and recovery of fish populations in response to these changes in habitat. Our model provides a generalizable framework for linking physical and ecological models and for evaluating the extirpation risk of isolated fish populations throughout the

  4. Quantifying the impact of woodpecker predation on population dynamics of the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, David E; Gould, Juli R; Vandenberg, John D; Duan, Jian J; Shrewsbury, Paula M

    2013-01-01

    The emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, is an invasive beetle that has killed millions of ash trees (Fraxinus spp.) since it was accidentally introduced to North America in the 1990s. Understanding how predators such as woodpeckers (Picidae) affect the population dynamics of EAB should enable us to more effectively manage the spread of this beetle, and toward this end we combined two experimental approaches to elucidate the relative importance of woodpecker predation on EAB populations. First, we examined wild populations of EAB in ash trees in New York, with each tree having a section screened to exclude woodpeckers. Second, we established experimental cohorts of EAB in ash trees in Maryland, and the cohorts on half of these trees were caged to exclude woodpeckers. The following spring these trees were debarked and the fates of the EAB larvae were determined. We found that trees from which woodpeckers were excluded consistently had significantly lower levels of predation, and that woodpecker predation comprised a greater source of mortality at sites with a more established wild infestation of EAB. Additionally, there was a considerable difference between New York and Maryland in the effect that woodpecker predation had on EAB population growth, suggesting that predation alone may not be a substantial factor in controlling EAB. In our experimental cohorts we also observed that trees from which woodpeckers were excluded had a significantly higher level of parasitism. The lower level of parasitism on EAB larvae found when exposed to woodpeckers has implications for EAB biological control, suggesting that it might be prudent to exclude woodpeckers from trees when attempting to establish parasitoid populations. Future studies may include utilizing EAB larval cohorts with a range of densities to explore the functional response of woodpeckers.

  5. European red squirrel population dynamics driven by squirrelpox at a gray squirrel invasion interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantrey, Julian; Dale, Timothy D; Read, Jonathan M; White, Steve; Whitfield, Fiona; Jones, David; McInnes, Colin J; Begon, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Infectious disease introduced by non-native species is increasingly cited as a facilitator of native population declines, but direct evidence may be lacking due to inadequate population and disease prevalence data surrounding an outbreak. Previous indirect evidence and theoretical models support squirrelpox virus (SQPV) as being potentially involved in the decline of red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) following the introduction of the non-native gray squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) to the United Kingdom. The red squirrel is a major UK conservation concern and understanding its continuing decline is important for any attempt to mitigate the decline. The red squirrel–gray squirrel system is also exemplary of the interplay between infectious disease (apparent competition) and direct competition in driving the replacement of a native by an invasive species. Time series data from Merseyside are presented on squirrel abundance and squirrelpox disease (SQPx) incidence, to determine the effect of the pathogen and the non-native species on the native red squirrel populations. Analysis indicates that SQPx in red squirrels has a significant negative impact on squirrel densities and their population growth rate (PGR). There is little evidence for a direct gray squirrel impact; only gray squirrel presence (but not density) proved to influence red squirrel density, but not red squirrel PGR. The dynamics of red SQPx cases are largely determined by previous red SQPx cases, although previous infection of local gray squirrels also feature, and thus, SQPV-infected gray squirrels are identified as potentially initiating outbreaks of SQPx in red squirrels. Retrospective serology indicates that approximately 8% of red squirrels exposed to SQPV may survive infection during an epidemic. This study further highlights the UK red squirrel – gray squirrel system as a classic example of a native species population decline strongly facilitated by infectious disease introduced by a non

  6. Understanding anti-tuberculosis drug efficacy: rethinking bacterial populations and how we model them

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrios Evangelopoulos

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Tuberculosis still remains a global health emergency, claiming 1.5 million lives in 2013. The bacterium responsible for this disease, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb, has successfully survived within hostile host environments, adapting to immune defence mechanisms, for centuries. This has resulted in a disease that is challenging to treat, requiring lengthy chemotherapy with multi-drug regimens. One explanation for this difficulty in eliminating M.tb bacilli in vivo is the disparate action of antimicrobials on heterogeneous populations of M.tb, where mycobacterial physiological state may influence drug efficacy. In order to develop improved drug combinations that effectively target diverse mycobacterial phenotypes, it is important to understand how such subpopulations of M.tb are formed during human infection. We review here the in vitro and in vivo systems used to model M.tb subpopulations that may persist during drug therapy, and offer aspirations for future research in this field.

  7. Nonlinearities lead to qualitative differences in population dynamics of predator-prey systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga M C C Ameixa

    Full Text Available Since typically there are many predators feeding on most herbivores in natural communities, understanding multiple predator effects is critical for both community and applied ecology. Experiments of multiple predator effects on prey populations are extremely demanding, as the number of treatments and the amount of labour associated with these experiments increases exponentially with the number of species in question. Therefore, researchers tend to vary only presence/absence of the species and use only one (supposedly realistic combination of their numbers in experiments. However, nonlinearities in density dependence, functional responses, interactions between natural enemies etc. are typical for such systems, and nonlinear models of population dynamics generally predict qualitatively different results, if initial absolute densities of the species studied differ, even if their relative densities are maintained. Therefore, testing combinations of natural enemies without varying their densities may not be sufficient. Here we test this prediction experimentally. We show that the population dynamics of a system consisting of 2 natural enemies (aphid predator Adalia bipunctata (L., and aphid parasitoid, Aphidius colemani Viereck and their shared prey (peach aphid, Myzus persicae Sulzer are strongly affected by the absolute initial densities of the species in question. Even if their relative densities are kept constant, the natural enemy species or combination thereof that most effectively suppresses the prey may depend on the absolute initial densities used in the experiment. Future empirical studies of multiple predator - one prey interactions should therefore use a two-dimensional array of initial densities of the studied species. Varying only combinations of natural enemies without varying their densities is not sufficient and can lead to misleading results.

  8. Population Dynamics and Natural Resources in the Volta in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Also, population growth is causing shortfalls in agricultural land, deforestation and high demand on water resources in some of the sub-basins of the Volta River Keywords: Population, Natural resources, Volta River Basin, Human Settlement Land Use/Coverage Change Ghana Journal of Development Studies Vol.

  9. Demographic processes in a local population: seasonal dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... differences in daily recruitment and within-patch survival rates. Males were most abundant relative to females early in the season, indicating protandry. Total adult population size was small and showed dramatic variation between the two years, indicating how vulnerable the local population is to demographic extinction.

  10. Dynamics of buckbrush populations under simulated forest restoration alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

    2008-01-01

    Plant population models are valuable tools for assessing ecological tradeoffs between forest management approaches. In addition, these models can provide insight on plant life history patterns and processes important for persistence and recovery of populations in changing environments. In this study, we evaluated a set of ecological restoration alternatives for their...

  11. Demographic processes in a local population: seasonal dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Francis

    every marked individual in the population has the same survival probability between two successive samples; and (2) the probability of capture is the same for all individuals in the population. Results of the full ..... Pollock KH, Nichols JD, Brownie C & Hines JE (1990) Statistical inference for capture-recapture experiments.

  12. Changes in Plasmodium Falciparum Population Dynamics in Two ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changing the malaria epidemiology will affect the genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum. We studied the association between diversity at the merozoite surface protein 2 loci and the severity of disease in childhood malaria in two populations and at different time periods in Ibadan, southwest Nigeria. Population A ...

  13. The role of East Asian monsoon system in shaping population divergence and dynamics of a constructive desert shrub Reaumuria soongarica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Hengxia; Yan, Xia; Shi, Yong; Qian, Chaoju; Li, Zhonghu; Zhang, Wen; Wang, Lirong; Li, Yi; Li, Xiaoze; Chen, Guoxiong; Li, Xinrong; Nevo, Eviatar; Ma, Xiao-Fei

    2015-10-29

    Both of the uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the development of East Asian monsoon system (EAMS) could have comprehensively impacted the formation and evolution of Arid Central Asia (ACA). To understand how desert plants endemic to ACA responded to these two factors, we profiled the historical population dynamics and distribution range shift of a constructive desert shrub Reaumuria soongarica (Tamaricaceae) based on species wide investigation of sequence variation of chloroplast DNA and nuclear ribosomal ITS. Phylogenetic analysis uncovered a deep divergence occurring at ca. 2.96 Mya between the western and eastern lineages of R. soongarica, and ecological niche modeling analysis strongly supported that the monsoonal climate could have fragmented its habitats in both glacial and interglacial periods and impelled its intraspecific divergence. Additionally, the population from the east monsoonal zone expanded rapidly, suggesting that the local monsoonal climate significantly impacted its population dynamics. The isolation by distance tests supported strong maternal gene flow along the direction of the East Asian winter monsoon, whose intensification induced the genetic admixture along the latitudinal populations of R. soongarica. Our results presented a new case that the development of EAMS had prominently impacted the intraspecific divergence and population dynamics of this desert plant.

  14. Newtonian chimpanzees? A molecular dynamics approach to understanding decision-making by wild chimpanzees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westley, Matthew; Sen, Surajit; Sinha, Anindya

    2014-07-01

    In this study, we computationally investigate decision-making by individuals and the ensuing social structure of a primate species, chimpanzees, using Newton's equations of classical mechanics, as opposed to agentbased analyses in which individual chimpanzees make independent decisions. Our model uses molecular dynamics simulation techniques to solve Newton's equations and is able to approximate the movements of female and male chimpanzees, especially in relation to the available food resources, in a manner that is consistent with their observed behavior in natural habitats. It is noteworthy that our Newtonian dynamics-based model may allow us to make certain specific observations of their behaviour, some of which may be difficult to achieve through agent-based modelling exercises or even field studies. Chimpanzees tend to live in fission-fusion social groups, with varying number of individuals, in which both females and males tend to display intrasexual competition for valuable food resources while the males also compete for oestrus females. Most populations of the species are also restricted to a small range of habitats, a clear indication that they are especially vulnerable to the availability and distribution of food sources. With reasonable assumptions of chimpanzee behaviour, we have been able to analyse the clustering behaviour of individuals in relation to local food sources as also patterns of their migration across groups. Our simulated results are qualitatively consistent with field observations conducted on a particular semi-isolated population of chimpanzees in Bossou, Guinea, in western Africa.

  15. Environmental variability and population dynamics: Do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pöysä, Hannu; Rintala, Jukka; Johnson, Douglas H.; Kauppinen, Jukka; Lammi, Esa; Nudds, Thomas D.; Väänänen, Veli-Matti

    2016-01-01

    Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between-year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively “fast species” and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively “slow species” and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history

  16. Understanding support for complementary and alternative medicine in general populations: use and perceived efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoneman, Paul; Sturgis, Patrick; Allum, Nick

    2013-09-01

    Proponents of complementary and alternative medicine argue that these treatments can be used with great effect in addition to, and sometimes instead of, conventional medicine, a position which has drawn sustained opposition from those who advocate an evidence-based approach to the evaluation of treatment efficacy. Using recent survey data from the United Kingdom, this article seeks to establish a clearer understanding of the nature of the public's relationship with complementary and alternative medicine within the general population by focusing on beliefs about the perceived effectiveness of homeopathy, in addition to its reported use. Using recent data from the United Kingdom, we initially demonstrate that reported use and perceived effectiveness are far from coterminous and argue that for a proper understanding of the motivations underpinning public support of complementary and alternative medicine, consideration of both reported use and perceived effectiveness is necessary. We go on to demonstrate that although the profile of homeopathy users differs from those who support this form of medicine, neither outcome is dependent upon peoples' levels of knowledge about science. Instead, the results suggest a far greater explanatory role for need and concerns about conventional medicine.

  17. A mechanistic analysis of density dependence in algal population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian eBorlestean

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Population density regulation is a fundamental principle in ecology, but the specific process underlying functional expression of density dependence remains to be fully elucidated. One view contends that patterns of density dependence are largely fixed across a species irrespective of environmental conditions, whereas another is that the strength and expression of density dependence are fundamentally variable depending on the nature of exogenous or endogenous constraints acting on the population. We conducted a study investigating the expression of density dependence in Chlamydomonas spp. grown under a gradient from low to high nutrient density. We predicted that the relationship between per capita growth rate (pgr and population density would vary from concave up to concave down as nutrient density became less limiting and populations experienced weaker density regulation. Contrary to prediction, we found that the relationship between pgr and density became increasingly concave-up as nutrient levels increased. We also found that variation in pgr increased, and pgr levels reached higher maxima in nutrient-limited environments. Most likely, these results are attributable to population growth suppression in environments with high intraspecific competition due to limited nutrient resources. Our results suggest that density regulation is strongly variable depending on exogenous and endogenous processes acting on the population, implying that expression of density dependence depends extensively on local conditions. Additional experimental work should reveal the mechanisms influencing how the expression of density dependence varies across populations through space and time.

  18. Improved Understanding of Implosion Symmetry through New Experimental Techniques Connecting Hohlraum Dynamics with Laser Beam Deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph, Joseph; Salmonson, Jay; Dewald, Eduard; Bachmann, Benjamin; Edwards, John; Graziani, Frank; Hurricane, Omar; Landen, Otto; Ma, Tammy; Masse, Laurent; MacLaren, Stephen; Meezan, Nathan; Moody, John; Parrilla, Nicholas; Pino, Jesse; Sacks, Ryan; Tipton, Robert

    2017-10-01

    Understanding what affects implosion symmetry has been a challenge for scientists designing indirect drive inertial confinement fusion experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF). New experimental techniques and data analysis have been employed aimed at improving our understanding of the relationship between hohlraum dynamics and implosion symmetry. Thin wall imaging data allows for time-resolved imaging of 10 keV Au l-band x-rays providing for the first time on the NIF, a spatially resolved measurement of laser deposition with time. In the work described here, we combine measurements from the thin wall imaging with time resolved views of the interior of the hohlraum. The measurements presented are compared to hydrodynamic simulations as well as simplified physics models. The goal of this work is to form a physical picture that better explains the relationship of the hohlraum dynamics and capsule ablator on laser beam propagation and implosion symmetry. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  19. Gender consistency and flexibility: using dynamics to understand the relationship between gender and adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiDonato, Matthew D; Martin, Carol L; Hessler, Eric E; Amazeen, Polemnia G; Hanish, Laura D; Fabes, Richard A

    2012-04-01

    Controversy surrounds questions regarding the influence of being gender consistent (i.e., having and expressing gendered characteristics that are consistent with one's biological sex) versus being gender flexible (i.e., having and expressing gendered characteristics that vary from masculine to feminine as circumstances arise) on children's adjustment outcomes, such as self-esteem, positive emotion, or behavior problems. Whereas evidence supporting the consistency hypothesis is abundant, little support exists for the flexibility hypothesis. To shed new light on the flexibility hypothesis, we explored children's gendered behavior from a dynamical perspective that highlighted variability and flexibility in addition to employing a conventional approach that emphasized stability and consistency. Conventional mean-level analyses supported the consistency hypothesis by revealing that gender atypical behavior was related to greater maladjustment, and dynamical analyses supported the flexibility hypothesis by showing that flexibility of gendered behavior over time was related to positive adjustment. Integrated analyses showed that gender typical behavior was related to the adjustment of children who were behaviorally inflexible, but not for those who were flexible. These results provided a more comprehensive understanding of the relation between gendered behavior and adjustment in young children and illustrated for the first time the feasibility of applying dynamical analyses to the study of gendered behavior.

  20. Future Challenges in Heterogeneous Catalysis: Understanding Catalysts under Dynamic Reaction Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalz, Kai F; Kraehnert, Ralph; Dvoyashkin, Muslim; Dittmeyer, Roland; Gläser, Roger; Krewer, Ulrike; Reuter, Karsten; Grunwaldt, Jan-Dierk

    2017-01-09

    In the future, (electro-)chemical catalysts will have to be more tolerant towards a varying supply of energy and raw materials. This is mainly due to the fluctuating nature of renewable energies. For example, power-to-chemical processes require a shift from steady-state operation towards operation under dynamic reaction conditions. This brings along a number of demands for the design of both catalysts and reactors, because it is well-known that the structure of catalysts is very dynamic. However, in-depth studies of catalysts and catalytic reactors under such transient conditions have only started recently. This requires studies and advances in the fields of 1) operando spectroscopy including time-resolved methods, 2) theory with predictive quality, 3) kinetic modelling, 4) design of catalysts by appropriate preparation concepts, and 5) novel/modular reactor designs. An intensive exchange between these scientific disciplines will enable a substantial gain of fundamental knowledge which is urgently required. This concept article highlights recent developments, challenges, and future directions for understanding catalysts under dynamic reaction conditions.

  1. Chaotic population dynamics and biology of the top-predator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rai, Vikas; Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar

    2004-01-01

    We study how the dynamics of a food chain depends on the biology of the top-predator. We consider two model food chains with specialist and generalist top-predators. Both types of food chains display same type of chaotic behavior, short-term recurrent chaos; but the generating mechanisms are drastically different. Food chains with specialist top-predators are dictated by exogenous stochastic factors. On the contrary, the dynamics of those with the generalist top-predator is governed by deterministic changes in system parameters. The study also suggests that robust chaos would be a rarity

  2. Understanding the Chronology and Occupation Dynamics of Oversized Pit Houses in the Southern Brazilian Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregorio de Souza, Jonas; Robinson, Mark; Corteletti, Rafael; Cárdenas, Macarena Lucia; Wolf, Sidnei; Iriarte, José; Mayle, Francis; DeBlasis, Paulo

    2016-01-01

    A long held view about the occupation of southern proto-Jê pit house villages of the southern Brazilian highlands is that these sites represent cycles of long-term abandonment and reoccupation. However, this assumption is based on an insufficient number of radiocarbon dates for individual pit houses. To address this problem, we conducted a programme of comprehensive AMS radiocarbon dating and Bayesian modelling at the deeply stratified oversized pit House 1, Baggio I site (Cal. A.D. 1395–1650), Campo Belo do Sul, Santa Catarina state, Brazil. The stratigraphy of House 1 revealed an unparalleled sequence of twelve well preserved floors evidencing a major change in occupation dynamics including five completely burnt collapsed roofs. The results of the radiocarbon dating allowed us to understand for the first time the occupation dynamics of an oversized pit house in the southern Brazilian highlands. The Bayesian model demonstrates that House 1 was occupied for over two centuries with no evidence of major periods of abandonment, calling into question previous models of long-term abandonment. In addition, the House 1 sequence allowed us to tie transformations in ceramic style and lithic technology to an absolute chronology. Finally, we can provide new evidence that the emergence of oversized domestic structures is a relatively recent phenomenon among the southern proto-Jê. As monumental pit houses start to be built, small pit houses continue to be inhabited, evidencing emerging disparities in domestic architecture after AD 1000. Our research shows the importance of programmes of intensive dating of individual structures to understand occupation dynamics and site permanence, and challenges long held assumptions that the southern Brazilian highlands were home to marginal cultures in the context of lowland South America. PMID:27384341

  3. Mechanistic understanding of human-wildlife conflict through a novel application of dynamic occupancy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Varun R; Medhi, Kamal; Nichols, James D; Oli, Madan K

    2015-08-01

    Crop and livestock depredation by wildlife is a primary driver of human-wildlife conflict, a problem that threatens the coexistence of people and wildlife globally. Understanding mechanisms that underlie depredation patterns holds the key to mitigating conflicts across time and space. However, most studies do not consider imperfect detection and reporting of conflicts, which may lead to incorrect inference regarding its spatiotemporal drivers. We applied dynamic occupancy models to elephant crop depredation data from India between 2005 and 2011 to estimate crop depredation occurrence and model its underlying dynamics as a function of spatiotemporal covariates while accounting for imperfect detection of conflicts. The probability of detecting conflicts was consistently <1.0 and was negatively influenced by distance to roads and elevation gradient, averaging 0.08-0.56 across primary periods (distinct agricultural seasons within each year). The probability of crop depredation occurrence ranged from 0.29 (SE 0.09) to 0.96 (SE 0.04). The probability that sites raided by elephants in primary period t would not be raided in primary period t + 1 varied with elevation gradient in different seasons and was influenced negatively by mean rainfall and village density and positively by distance to forests. Negative effects of rainfall variation and distance to forests best explained variation in the probability that sites not raided by elephants in primary period t would be raided in primary period t + 1. With our novel application of occupancy models, we teased apart the spatiotemporal drivers of conflicts from factors that influence how they are observed, thereby allowing more reliable inference on mechanisms underlying observed conflict patterns. We found that factors associated with increased crop accessibility and availability (e.g., distance to forests and rainfall patterns) were key drivers of elephant crop depredation dynamics. Such an understanding is essential for

  4. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SMALL MAMMALS ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biogeochemical alterations of the nitrogen cycle from anthropogenic activities could have significant effects on ecological processes at the population, community and ecosystem levels. Nitrogen additions in grasslands have produced qualitative and quantitative changes in vegetat...

  5. Population dynamics of the diamondback moth Plutella xylostella L ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae) was investigated at three farms on the Western side of the Sydney Basin, Australia, from November 2003 to October 2004. Adult populations were monitored fortnightly by counting the number that was trapped on ...

  6. Population dynamics of aquatic snails in Pampulha reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Freitas

    1987-01-01

    Full Text Available An attempt was made to determine more accurately the density of molluskan populations in the Pampulha reservoir, using the quadrate method, intending to detect the fluctuation of the populations density, the habitat conditions and the possible competitive interactions among Biomphalaria tenagophila, Melanoides tuberculata, Pomacea haustrum and Biomphalaria glabrata, through the analysis of populational parameters. Among the most significative facts observed in the reservoir it has to be mentioned: the almost disappearance of B. glabrata; the invasion, colonization, fixation and fast growing of M. tuberculata population until reaching about 11,000 individuals/[square metre]; the density fluctuations of B. tenagophila, P. haustrum and M. tuberculata alives and deads; differences on the habitat preference of these three molluskan species at the edge (at the limit earth-water, at 0.70m and 1.40m from the shore line; monthly mortality rates and reproduction seasons of the species.

  7. Population dynamics of caribou herds in southwestern Alaska

    OpenAIRE

    Valkenburg, Patrick; Sellers, Richard A.; Squibb, Ronald C.; Woolington, James D.; Aderman, Andrew R.; Dale, Bruce W.

    2003-01-01

    The five naturally occurring and one transplanted caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) herd in southwestern Alaska composed about 20% of Alaska's caribou population in 2001. All five of the naturally occurring herds fluctuated considerably in size between the late 1800s and 2001 and for some herds the data provide an indication of long-term periodic (40-50 year) fluctuations. At the present time, the Unimak (UCH) and Southern Alaska Peninsula (SAP) are recovering from population declines, the N...

  8. The growth rates and population dynamics of bivalves in estuaries ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Studies on bivalves in the SwartkOps estuary have indicated that spatfall oa::an dlD'iDllate summer. After adult populations had been decimated by floods in 1971 spat IDII.de up a Iarp proportion of the bivalve population in 1973. Growth rata! vary at difl"erent intertidallevela and in difl"erent parts of the estuary and growth ...

  9. Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.

    2017-01-01

    Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist

  10. Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crone, E.E.

    1995-11-08

    The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

  11. Dynamics of Possible Late Heavy Bombardment Impactor Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dones, Luke

    2002-01-01

    The existence of the later lunar basins implies the existence of a massive dynamical reservoir that can store small bodies for some 6000 Myr after the Moon formed. We will discuss four recent models for such reservoirs. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  12. Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2014-01-01

    through time, 2) predicting the risk of by-catch of undersize individuals. The method demonstrates that it is possible to combine stock assessment and spatio-temporal dynamics, however at a high computational cost. The model can be extended by increasing its ecological fidelity, although computational...

  13. Ideal free distributions when resources undergo population dynamics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Křivan, Vlastimil

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 64, - (2003), s. 25-38 ISSN 0040-5809 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/03/0091; GA MŠk LA 101 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z5007907 Keywords : Predator -prey dynamics * ideal free distribution * optimal foraging Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.261, year: 2003

  14. The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaub, Michael; Reichlin, Thomas S; Abadi, Fitsum; Kéry, Marc; Jenni, Lukas; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2012-01-01

    The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

  15. Collaborative Research. Damage and Burst Dynamics in Failure of Complex Geomaterials. A Statistical Physics Approach to Understanding the Complex Emergent Dynamics in Near Mean-Field Geological Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rundle, John B. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States); Klein, William [Boston Univ., MA (United States)

    2015-09-29

    We have carried out research to determine the dynamics of failure in complex geomaterials, specifically focusing on the role of defects, damage and asperities in the catastrophic failure processes (now popularly termed “Black Swan events”). We have examined fracture branching and flow processes using models for invasion percolation, focusing particularly on the dynamics of bursts in the branching process. We have achieved a fundamental understanding of the dynamics of nucleation in complex geomaterials, specifically in the presence of inhomogeneous structures.

  16. Boom or bust? A comparative analysis of transient population dynamics in plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Franco, Miguel; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    a population must become before reaching its maximum possible transient amplification following a disturbance) and the extension of this and other transient indices to simultaneously describe both amplified and attenuated transient dynamics. We apply the Kreiss bound and other transient indices to a data base......Population dynamics often defy predictions based on empirical models, and explanations for noisy dynamics have ranged from deterministic chaos to environmental stochasticity. Transient (short-term) dynamics following disturbance or perturbation have recently gained empirical attention from...... succession have the highest potential for transient amplification and attenuation, whereas species with intermediate life history complexity have the lowest potential. We find ecological relationships between transients and asymptotic dynamics: faster-growing populations tend to have greater potential...

  17. The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

    2017-06-01

    Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

  18. The population dynamical implications of male-biased parasitism in different mating systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin R Miller

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Although there is growing evidence that males tend to suffer higher levels of parasitism than females, the implications of this for the population dynamics of the host population are not yet understood. Here we build on an established 'two-sex' model and investigate how increased susceptibility to infection in males affects the dynamics, under different mating systems. We investigate the effect of pathogenic disease at different case mortalities, under both monogamous and polygynous mating systems. If the case mortality is low, then male-biased parasitism appears similar to unbiased parasitism in terms of its effect on the population dynamics. At higher case mortalities, we identified significant differences between male-biased and unbiased parasitism. A host population may therefore be differentially affected by male-biased and unbiased parasitism. The dynamical outcome is likely to depend on a complex interaction between the host's mating system and demography, and the parasite virulence.

  19. Regional Population--Employment Dynamics across Different Sectors of the Economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Graaff, T.; Florax, R.J.G.M.; van Oort, F.G.

    2012-01-01

    An important subset of the literature on agglomeration externalities hypothesizes that intrasectoral and intersectoral relations are endogenously determined in models of local and regional economic growth. Remarkably, structural adjustment models describing the spatio-temporal dynamics of population

  20. Approximation of solutions to retarded differential equations with applications to population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Bahuguna

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a retarded differential equation with applications to population dynamics. We establish the convergence of a finite-dimensional approximations of a unique solution, the existence and uniqueness of which are also proved in the process.

  1. Comparison of MHD simulation codes for understanding nonlinear ELMs dynamics in KSTAR H-mode plasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, M.; Lee, J.; Park, H. K.; Yun, G. S.; Xu, X.; Jardin, S. C.; Becoulet, M.

    2017-10-01

    KSTAR electron cyclotron emission imaging (ECEI) systems have contributed to understanding the fundamental physics of ELMs by high-quality 2D and quasi-3D images of ELMs. However, in the highly nonlinear phase of ELM dynamics, the interpretation of ECE signals becomes complicated intrinsically. Theoretical and numerical approaches are necessary to enhance the understanding of ELM physics. Well-established MHD codes (BOUT + + , JOREK, and M3D-C1) are introduced for comparative study with the observations. The nonlinear solutions are obtained using the same equilibrium of the KSTAR H-mode plasma. Each code shows the partial difference in mode evolution, probably, due to the difference in optimized operation window of initial conditions. The nonlinear simulation results show that low- n (n qualitatively matches with the recent ECEI observation just before ELM-crash, or excitation of non-modal solitary perturbation (typically, n = 1) which is highly localized in poloidal and toroidal. Regardless of differences in details, qualitative similarity can provide inspiration to understand the triggering of ELM-crash. This work is supported by NRF of Korea under Contract No. NRF-2014M1A7A1A03029865.

  2. Effects of Structural Transparency in System Dynamics Simulators on Performance and Understanding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgit Kopainsky

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Prior exploration is an instructional strategy that has improved performance and understanding in system-dynamics-based simulators, but only to a limited degree. This study investigates whether model transparency, that is, showing users the internal structure of models, can extend the prior exploration strategy and improve learning even more. In an experimental study, participants in a web-based simulation learned about and managed a small developing nation. All participants were provided the prior exploration strategy but only half received prior exploration embedded in a structure-behavior diagram intended to make the underlying model’s structure more transparent. Participants provided with the more transparent strategy demonstrated better understanding of the underlying model. Their performance, however, was the equivalent to those in the less transparent condition. Combined with previous studies, our results suggest that while prior exploration is a beneficial strategy for both performance and understanding, making the model structure transparent with structure-behavior diagrams is more limited in its effect.

  3. Evolutionary game dynamics in populations with heterogenous structures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wes Maciejewski

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Evolutionary graph theory is a well established framework for modelling the evolution of social behaviours in structured populations. An emerging consensus in this field is that graphs that exhibit heterogeneity in the number of connections between individuals are more conducive to the spread of cooperative behaviours. In this article we show that such a conclusion largely depends on the individual-level interactions that take place. In particular, averaging payoffs garnered through game interactions rather than accumulating the payoffs can altogether remove the cooperative advantage of heterogeneous graphs while such a difference does not affect the outcome on homogeneous structures. In addition, the rate at which game interactions occur can alter the evolutionary outcome. Less interactions allow heterogeneous graphs to support more cooperation than homogeneous graphs, while higher rates of interactions make homogeneous and heterogeneous graphs virtually indistinguishable in their ability to support cooperation. Most importantly, we show that common measures of evolutionary advantage used in homogeneous populations, such as a comparison of the fixation probability of a rare mutant to that of the resident type, are no longer valid in heterogeneous populations. Heterogeneity causes a bias in where mutations occur in the population which affects the mutant's fixation probability. We derive the appropriate measures for heterogeneous populations that account for this bias.

  4. Quantitative single cell analysis of cell population dynamics during submandibular salivary gland development and differentiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Deirdre A.; Manhardt, Charles; Kamath, Vidya; Sui, Yunxia; Santamaria-Pang, Alberto; Can, Ali; Bello, Musodiq; Corwin, Alex; Dinn, Sean R.; Lazare, Michael; Gervais, Elise M.; Sequeira, Sharon J.; Peters, Sarah B.; Ginty, Fiona; Gerdes, Michael J.; Larsen, Melinda

    2013-01-01

    Summary Epithelial organ morphogenesis involves reciprocal interactions between epithelial and mesenchymal cell types to balance progenitor cell retention and expansion with cell differentiation for evolution of tissue architecture. Underlying submandibular salivary gland branching morphogenesis is the regulated proliferation and differentiation of perhaps several progenitor cell populations, which have not been characterized throughout development, and yet are critical for understanding organ development, regeneration, and disease. Here we applied a serial multiplexed fluorescent immunohistochemistry technology to map the progressive refinement of the epithelial and mesenchymal cell populations throughout development from embryonic day 14 through postnatal day 20. Using computational single cell analysis methods, we simultaneously mapped the evolving temporal and spatial location of epithelial cells expressing subsets of differentiation and progenitor markers throughout salivary gland development. We mapped epithelial cell differentiation markers, including aquaporin 5, PSP, SABPA, and mucin 10 (acinar cells); cytokeratin 7 (ductal cells); and smooth muscle α-actin (myoepithelial cells) and epithelial progenitor cell markers, cytokeratin 5 and c-kit. We used pairwise correlation and visual mapping of the cells in multiplexed images to quantify the number of single- and double-positive cells expressing these differentiation and progenitor markers at each developmental stage. We identified smooth muscle α-actin as a putative early myoepithelial progenitor marker that is expressed in cytokeratin 5-negative cells. Additionally, our results reveal dynamic expansion and redistributions of c-kit- and K5-positive progenitor cell populations throughout development and in postnatal glands. The data suggest that there are temporally and spatially discreet progenitor populations that contribute to salivary gland development and homeostasis. PMID:23789091

  5. Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acácio, Vanda; Dias, Filipe S; Catry, Filipe X; Rocha, Marta; Moreira, Francisco

    2017-03-01

    The Mediterranean region is projected to be extremely vulnerable to global change, which will affect the distribution of typical forest types such as native oak forests. However, our understanding of Mediterranean oak forest responses to future conditions is still very limited by the lack of knowledge on oak forest dynamics and species-specific responses to multiple drivers. We compared the long-term (1966-2006) forest persistence and land cover change among evergreen (cork oak and holm oak) and deciduous oak forests and evaluated the importance of anthropogenic and environmental drivers on observed changes for Portugal. We used National Forest Inventories to quantify the changes in oak forests and explored the drivers of change using multinomial logistic regression analysis and an information theoretical approach. We found distinct trends among oak forest types, reflecting the differences in oak economic value, protection status and management schemes: cork oak forests were the most persistent (62%), changing mostly to pines and eucalypt; holm oak forests were less persistent (53.2%), changing mostly to agriculture; and deciduous oak forests were the least persistent (45.7%), changing mostly to shrublands. Drivers of change had distinct importance across oak forest types, but drivers from anthropogenic origin (wildfires, population density, and land accessibility) were always among the most important. Climatic extremes were also important predictors of oak forest changes, namely extreme temperatures for evergreen oak forests and deficit of precipitation for deciduous oak forests. Our results indicate that under increasing human pressure and forecasted climate change, evergreen oak forests will continue declining and deciduous oak forests will be replaced by forests dominated by more xeric species. In the long run, multiple disturbances may change competitive dominance from oak forests to pyrophytic shrublands. A better understanding of forest dynamics and the

  6. Semai Senoi fertility and population dynamics: Two-census method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fix, Alan G

    1989-01-01

    The fertility and parameters of population growth of the Semai Senoi of Malaysia are studied by using a two-census method based on nonstable population theory. Semai fertility is shown to be moderately high; female completed fertility is 7.42 children and the crude birth rate is greater than 0.050. Previous estimates of Semai mortality rates are also moderately high but are insufficient to balance birth; thus, the overall rate of growth is presently nearly 2%. Compared with an earlier description of the pre-1969 Semai population, fertility has increased markedly leading to a nearly threefold increase in the annual growth rate. Copyright © 1989 Wiley-Liss, Inc., A Wiley Company.

  7. Neutral delay equations from and for population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. P. Hadeler

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available For a certain class of neutral differential equations it is shown that these equations can serve as population models in the sense that they can be interpreted as special cases or caricatures of the standard Gurtin-MacCamy model for a population structured by age with birth and death rate depending on the total adult population. The delayed logistic equation does not belong to this class but the blowfly equation does. These neutral delay equations can be written as forward systems of an ordinary differential equation and a shift map. There are several quite distinct ways to perform the transformation to a system, either following a method of Hale or following more closely the renewal process. Similarly to the delayed logistic equation, the neutral equation (and the blowfly equation as a special case exhibit periodic solutions, although only for a restricted range of parameters.

  8. How Predation and Landscape Fragmentation Affect Vole Population Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalkvist, Trine; Sibly, Richard M.; Topping, Chris J.

    2011-01-01

    on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects......Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known...... population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based...

  9. Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

    2014-01-01

    This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

  10. The dynamics of discrete populations and series of events

    CERN Document Server

    Hopcraft, Keith Iain; Ridley, Kevin D

    2014-01-01

    IntroductionReferencesStatistical PreliminariesIntroductionProbability DistributionsMoment-Generating FunctionsDiscrete ProcessesSeries of EventsSummaryFurther ReadingMarkovian Population ProcessesIntroductionBirths and DeathsImmigration and the Poisson ProcessThe Effect of MeasurementCorrelation of CountsSummaryFurther ReadingThe Birth-Death-Immigration ProcessIntroductionRate Equations for the ProcessEquation for the Generating FunctionGeneral Time-Dependent SolutionFluctuation Characteristics of a Birth-Death-Immigration PopulationSampling and Measurement ProcessesCorrelation of CountsSumma

  11. Coupling environmental, social and economic models to understand land-use change dynamics in the Mekong Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexis eDrogoul

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The Vietnamese Mekong Delta has undergone in recent years a considerable transformation in agricultural land-use, fueled by a boom of the exportation, an increase of population, a focus on intensive crops, but also environmental factors like sea level rise or the progression of soil salinity. These transformations have been, however, largely misestimated by the ten-year agricultural plans designed at the provincial levels, on the predictions of which, though, most of the large-scale investments (irrigation infrastructures, protection against flooding or salinity intrusion, and so on are normally planned. This situation raises the question of how to explain the divergence between the predictions used as a basis for these plans and the actual situation. Answering it could, as a matter of fact, offer some insights on the dynamics at play and hopefully allow designing them more accurately.The dynamics of land-use change at a scale of a region results from the interactions between heterogeneous actors and factors at different scales, among them institutional policies, individual farming choices, land-cover and environmental changes, economic conditions, social dynamics, just to name a few. Understanding its evolution, for example, in this case, to better support agricultural planning, therefore requires the use of models that can represent the individual contributions of each actor or factor, and of course their interactions.We address this question through the design of an integrated hybrid model of land-use change in a specific and carefully chosen case study, which relies on the central hypothesis that the main force driving land-use change is actually the individual choices made by farmers at their local level. Farmers are the actors who decide (or not to switch from one culture to another and the shifts observed at more global levels (village, district, province, region are considered, in this model, as a consequence of the aggregation of these

  12. Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡

  13. Seasonal timing of first rain storms affects rare plant population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

    2011-01-01

    A major challenge in forecasting the ecological consequences of climate change is understanding the relative importance of changes to mean conditions vs. changes to discrete climatic events, such as storms, frosts, or droughts. Here we show that the first major storm of the growing season strongly influences the population dynamics of three rare and endangered annual plant species in a coastal California (USA) ecosystem. In a field experiment we used moisture barriers and water addition to manipulate the timing and temperature associated with first major rains of the season. The three focal species showed two- to fivefold variation in per capita population growth rates between the different storm treatments, comparable to variation found in a prior experiment imposing eightfold differences in season-long precipitation. Variation in germination was a major demographic driver of how two of three species responded to the first rains. For one of these species, the timing of the storm was the most critical determinant of its germination, while the other showed enhanced germination with colder storm temperatures. The role of temperature was further supported by laboratory trials showing enhanced germination in cooler treatments. Our work suggests that, because of species-specific cues for demographic transitions such as germination, changes to discrete climate events may be as, if not more, important than changes to season-long variables.

  14. Population Dynamics and Transcriptomic Responses of Chorthippus albonemus (Orthoptera: Acrididae to Herbivore Grazing Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinghu Qin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Livestock grazing can trigger outbreaks of insect pests in steppe ecosystems of Inner Mongolia in China. However, the physiological responses of the grasshopper Chorthippus albonemus to grazing are not well-understood. Here we investigated the effects of sheep grazing on the population dynamics and transcriptomic response of C. albonemus. We collected the insects three times (about 20 days apart in 1.33-ha plots in which there were no grazing, light grazing, moderate grazing, heavy grazing, or overgrazing. Our results showed that continuous grazing significantly decreased plant biomass and influenced plant succession. Total insect species diversity significantly declined along the grazing intensity gradient and over time. Results of the first two collections of C. albonemus indicated that moderate grazing significantly increased the abundance of C. albonemus. However, abundance was significantly decreased in plots that were overgrazed, possibly because of food stress and environmental pressures. Under moderate grazing, betA and CHDH genes were significantly upregulated in C. albonemus. In response to higher grazing intensity, upregulated genes included those involved in serine-type peptidase activity, anatomical structure development, and sensory organ development; downregulated genes included those involved in the structural constituents of the ribosome and ribosome processes. Genes strongly upregulated in response to heavy grazing pressure included adaptive genes such as those encoding ankyrin repeat domain-containing protein and HSP. These findings improve our understanding of the role of the transcriptome in C. albonemus population response to livestock grazing and may provide useful targets for grasshopper control.

  15. Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrectedDaphniapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

    2018-01-01

    There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

  16. Red Sea Acropora hemprichii Bacterial Population Dynamics under Adverse Anthropogenic Conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Lizcano, Javier

    2012-08-01

    Reef-building corals are cornerstones of life in the oceans. Understanding their interactions with microorganisms and their surrounding physicochemical conditions is important to comprehend reef functioning and ultimately protect coral reef ecosystems. Corals associate with a complex and specific array of microorganisms that supposedly affect their physiology and therefore can significantly determine the condition of a coral ecosystem. As environmental conditions may shape bacterial diversity and ecology in the coral symbiosis, ecosystem changes might have unfavorable consequences for the holobiont, to date poorly understood. Here, we were studying microbial community changes in A. hemprichii as a consequence of simulated eutrophication and overfishing over a period of 16 weeks by using in situ caging and slow release fertilizer treatments in an undisturbed Red Sea reef (22.18ºN, 38.57ºW). We used 16S rDNA amplicon sequencing to evaluate the individual and combined effects of overnutrification and fishing pressure, two of the most common local threats to coral reefs. With our data we hope to better understand bacterial population dynamics under anthropogenic influences and its role in coral resilience. Projecting further, this data will be useful to better predict the consequences of human activity on reef ecosystems.

  17. Population dynamics and angler exploitation of the unique muskellunge population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frohnauer, N.K.; Pierce, C.L.; Kallemeyn, L.W.

    2007-01-01

    A unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabits Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota. Little is known about its status, dynamics, and angler exploitation, and there is concern for the long-term viability of this population. We used intensive sampling and mark-recapture methods to quantify abundance, survival, growth, condition, age at maturity and fecundity and angler surveys to quantify angler pressure, catch rates, and exploitation. During our study, heavy rain washed out a dam constructed by beavers Castor canadensis which regulates the water level at the lake outlet, resulting in a nearly 50% reduction in surface area. We estimated a population size of 1,120 adult fish at the beginning of the study. No immediate reduction in population size was detected in response to the loss of lake area, although there was a gradual, but significant, decline in population size over the 2-year study. Adults grew less than 50 mm per year, and relative weight (W r) averaged roughly 80. Anglers were successful in catching, on average, two fish during a full day of angling, but harvest was negligible. Shoepack Lake muskellunge exhibit much slower growth rates and lower condition, but much higher densities and angler catch per unit effort (CPUE), than other muskellunge populations. The unique nature, limited distribution, and location of this population in a national park require special consideration for management. The results of this study provide the basis for assessing the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population through simulations of long-term population dynamics and genetically effective population size. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

  18. Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fordham, Damien A; Mellin, Camille; Russell, Bayden D; Akçakaya, Reşit H; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Caley, Julian M; Connell, Sean D; Mayfield, Stephen; Shepherd, Scoresby A; Brook, Barry W

    2013-10-01

    Evidence is accumulating that species' responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal-limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip (Haliotis rubra) and greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate-related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy (AOO) and abundance that differ from those generated by ENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate-dependent mortality and metapopulation processes; in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction in AOO. The strongly non-linear relationship between abalone population size and AOO has important ramifications for the use of ENM predictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source-sink dynamics and dispersal-limitation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Population dynamics of Lemniscomys rosalia (Muridae: Rodentia) in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Numerous studies have reported increases in rodent populations following good rainfall (Nel 1978; Perrin & Swanepoel 1987; Bronner, Rau- ten bach & Meester 1988). This relationship is thought to be an indirect one where increased rainfall acts to increase cover and food supply. thus enabling rodents to reproduce (Neal.

  20. Population dynamics and ecology of freshwater gastropods in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    From November 1998 to October 2000, patterns of distribution and seasonal population fluctuations of snails and factors influencing them were investigated in six ... Bulinus globosus, B. tropicus, B. forskalii, Biomphalaria pfeifferi, Lymnaea natalensis, Ceratophallus natalensis, Gyraulus costulatus, Melanoides tuberculata, ...

  1. Population dynamics of Lemniscomys rosalia (Muridae: Rodentia) in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effects of food supplementation on a population of Lemniscomys rosalia were studied experimentally in a grassland habitat in Swaziland. Food was added bi-weekly to two I-ha grids, while a single I-ha grid served as the control. Rodent traps were set monthly over a 12 month period. Food supplementation may have ...

  2. Population dynamics of Lanyu Scops Owls (Otus elegans botelensis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    L. L. Severinghaus

    1997-01-01

    Monthly visits to Lanyu Island have been made to study Lanyu Scops Owls (Otus elegans botelensis) since 1986. This population has been surveyed by regular census and playback counts, by color banding, by monitoring the survival, reproduction and movements of individual owls, and by mapping and documenting the change in nest trees.

  3. The larval development and population dynamics of Derocheilocaris ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Seven larval stages of Derocheilocaris algoensis have been described and appear to be identical with those of D. typica from North America. This stresses the remarkable conservativeness of this subclass of Crustacea. The population biology of D. algoensis has been studied over 16 months and reproduction has been ...

  4. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  5. A new geographical gradient in vole population dynamics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tkadlec, Emil; Stenseth, N. C.

    2001-01-01

    Roč. 268, č. 1476 (2001), s. 1547-1552 ISSN 0962-8452 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA524/01/1316; GA AV ČR KSK6005114 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z6093917 Keywords : common vole * density dependence * population cycles Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.192, year: 2001

  6. Mathematical Modeling in Population Dynamics: The Case of Single ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kofimereku

    formulated by the logistic growth function, where ε is the intrinsic rate of increase and )0(. ≥. µ represents the effect of intraspecific competition on the reproduction rate. Fisher (1937) first proposed this equation as a model in population genetics to describe the process of spatial spread when mutant individuals with higher ...

  7. on the apllication of single specie dynamic population model 306

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pc

    used to compare the predicted values and observed values in order to find out whether there is significant difference between the observed and predicted values using these two models. Keywords: Birth rate, sustainable population, overcrowding, harvesting, independent t-test and ..... 95% confidence interval of the.

  8. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tion is too fast to be due to the de novo appearance of bene- ficial mutations. Likewise, the relatively similar .... lation size (Ne), which behaves in a similar fashion to N in the Wright–Fisher model. In some cases ... variation, giving the appearance that the population is smaller than traditional theory would suggest. In our ...

  9. The significance of nonviable eggs for Daphnia population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boersma, M.; Vijverberg, J.

    1995-01-01

    Egg mortality was studied in populations of Daphnia galeata, Daphnia cucullata, and the hybrid between these species. In Tjeukemeer, a shallow eutrophic lake in the Netherlands, egg mortality in daphnids manifested itself as an apparent increase in the frequency of eggs in the early developmental

  10. Genes, communities & invasive species: understanding the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of host-pathogen interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burdon, J J; Thrall, P H; Ericson, L

    2013-08-01

    Reciprocal interactions between hosts and pathogens drive ecological, epidemiological and co-evolutionary trajectories, resulting in complex patterns of diversity at population, species and community levels. Recent results confirm the importance of negative frequency-dependent rather than 'arms-race' processes in the evolution of individual host-pathogen associations. At the community level, complex relationships between species abundance and diversity dampen or alter pathogen impacts. Invasive pathogens challenge these controls reflecting the earliest stages of evolutionary associations (akin to arms-race) where disease effects may be so great that they overwhelm the host's and community's ability to respond. Viewing these different stabilization/destabilization phases as a continuum provides a valuable perspective to assessment of the role of genetics and ecology in the dynamics of both natural and invasive host-pathogen associations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Species composition, community and population dynamics of two gallery forests from the Brazilian Cerrado domain

    OpenAIRE

    Gastauer,Markus; Almado,Roosevelt; Miazaki,Angela; Souza,Écio; Moreira,Luis; Meira-Neto,João

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background To understand the impacts of global changes on future community compositions, knowledge of community dynamics is of crucial importance. To improve our knowledge of community composition, biomass stock and maintenance of gallery forests in the Brazilian Cerrado, we provide two datasets from the 0.5 ha Corrego Fazendinha Gallery Forest Dynamics Plot and the Corrego Fundo Gallery Forest Dynamics Plot situated in the Bom Despacho region, Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil. New ...

  12. Understanding and Mastering Dynamics in Computing Grids Processing Moldable Tasks with User-Level Overlay

    CERN Document Server

    Moscicki, Jakub Tomasz

    Scientic communities are using a growing number of distributed systems, from lo- cal batch systems, community-specic services and supercomputers to general-purpose, global grid infrastructures. Increasing the research capabilities for science is the raison d'^etre of such infrastructures which provide access to diversied computational, storage and data resources at large scales. Grids are rather chaotic, highly heterogeneous, de- centralized systems where unpredictable workloads, component failures and variability of execution environments are commonplace. Understanding and mastering the hetero- geneity and dynamics of such distributed systems is prohibitive for end users if they are not supported by appropriate methods and tools. The time cost to learn and use the interfaces and idiosyncrasies of dierent distributed environments is another challenge. Obtaining more reliable application execution times and boosting parallel speedup are important to increase the research capabilities of scientic communities. L...

  13. Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus: a comparison between central and range edge populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita M Araújo

    Full Text Available Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental

  14. An in silico modeling approach to understanding the dynamics of sarcoidosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baltazar D Aguda

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Sarcoidosis is a polygenic disease with diverse phenotypic presentations characterized by an abnormal antigen-mediated Th1 type immune response. At present, progress towards understanding sarcoidosis disease mechanisms and the development of novel treatments is limited by constraints attendant to conducting human research in a rare disease in the absence of relevant animal models. We sought to develop a computational model to enhance our understanding of the pathological mechanisms of and predict potential treatments of sarcoidosis. METHODOLOGY/RESULTS: Based upon the literature, we developed a computational model of known interactions between essential immune cells (antigen-presenting macrophages, effector and regulatory T cells and cytokine mediators (IL-2, TNFα, IFNγ of granulomatous inflammation during sarcoidosis. The dynamics of these interactions are described by a set of ordinary differential equations. The model predicts bistable switching behavior which is consistent with normal (self-limited and "sarcoidosis-like" (sustained activation of the inflammatory components of the system following a single antigen challenge. By perturbing the influence of model components using inhibitors of the cytokine mediators, distinct clinically relevant disease phenotypes were represented. Finally, the model was shown to be useful for pre-clinical testing of therapies based upon molecular targets and dose-effect relationships. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our work illustrates a dynamic computer simulation of granulomatous inflammation scenarios that is useful for the investigation of disease mechanisms and for pre-clinical therapeutic testing. In lieu of relevant in vitro or animal surrogates, our model may provide for the screening of potential therapies for specific sarcoidosis disease phenotypes in advance of expensive clinical trials.

  15. Understanding Action and Adventure Sports Participation-An Ecological Dynamics Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Immonen, Tuomas; Brymer, Eric; Orth, Dominic; Davids, Keith; Feletti, Francesco; Liukkonen, Jarmo; Jaakkola, Timo

    2017-12-01

    Previous research has considered action and adventure sports using a variety of associated terms and definitions which has led to confusing discourse and contradictory research findings. Traditional narratives have typically considered participation exclusively as the pastime of young people with abnormal characteristics or personalities having unhealthy and pathological tendencies to take risks because of the need for thrill, excitement or an adrenaline 'rush'. Conversely, recent research has linked even the most extreme forms of action and adventure sports to positive physical and psychological health and well-being outcomes. Here, we argue that traditional frameworks have led to definitions, which, as currently used by researchers, ignore key elements constituting the essential merit of these sports. In this paper, we suggest that this lack of conceptual clarity in understanding cognitions, perception and action in action and adventure sports requires a comprehensive explanatory framework, ecological dynamics which considers person-environment interactions from a multidisciplinary perspective. Action and adventure sports can be fundamentally conceptualized as activities which flourish through creative exploration of novel movement experiences, continuously expanding and evolving beyond predetermined environmental, physical, psychological or sociocultural boundaries. The outcome is the emergence of a rich variety of participation styles and philosophical differences within and across activities. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (a) to point out some limitations of existing research on action and adventure sports; (b) based on key ideas from emerging research and an ecological dynamics approach, to propose a holistic multidisciplinary model for defining and understanding action and adventure sports that may better guide future research and practical implications.

  16. Understanding physical activity participation in spinal cord injured populations: Three narrative types for consideration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Papathomas

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to identity the types of physical activity narratives drawn upon by active spinal injured people. More than 50 h of semi-structured life-story interview data, collected as part of larger interdisciplinary program of disability lifestyle research, was analysed for 30 physically active male and female spinal cord injury (SCI participants. A structural narrative analysis of data identified three narrative types which people with SCI draw on: (1 exercise is restitution, (2 exercise is medicine, and (3 exercise is progressive redemption. These insights contribute new knowledge by adding a unique narrative perspective to existing cognitive understanding of physical activity behaviour in the spinal cord injured population. The implications of this narrative typology for developing effective positive behavioural change interventions are critically discussed. It is concluded that the identified narratives types may be constitutive, as well as reflective, of physical activity experiences and therefore may be a useful tool on which to base physical activity promotion initiatives.

  17. Understanding physical activity participation in spinal cord injured populations: Three narrative types for consideration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathomas, Anthony; Williams, Toni L; Smith, Brett

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identity the types of physical activity narratives drawn upon by active spinal injured people. More than 50 h of semi-structured life-story interview data, collected as part of larger interdisciplinary program of disability lifestyle research, was analysed for 30 physically active male and female spinal cord injury (SCI) participants. A structural narrative analysis of data identified three narrative types which people with SCI draw on: (1) exercise is restitution, (2) exercise is medicine, and (3) exercise is progressive redemption. These insights contribute new knowledge by adding a unique narrative perspective to existing cognitive understanding of physical activity behaviour in the spinal cord injured population. The implications of this narrative typology for developing effective positive behavioural change interventions are critically discussed. It is concluded that the identified narratives types may be constitutive, as well as reflective, of physical activity experiences and therefore may be a useful tool on which to base physical activity promotion initiatives.

  18. Understanding the genetic diversity and population structure of yam (Dioscorea alata L.) using microsatellite markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnau, Gemma; Bhattacharjee, Ranjana; Mn, Sheela; Chair, Hana; Malapa, Roger; Lebot, Vincent; K, Abraham; Perrier, Xavier; Petro, Dalila; Penet, Laurent; Pavis, Claudie

    2017-01-01

    Yams (Dioscorea sp.) are staple food crops for millions of people in tropical and subtropical regions. Dioscorea alata, also known as greater yam, is one of the major cultivated species and most widely distributed throughout the tropics. Despite its economic and cultural importance, very little is known about its origin, diversity and genetics. As a consequence, breeding efforts for resistance to its main disease, anthracnose, have been fairly limited. The objective of this study was to contribute to the understanding of D. alata genetic diversity by genotyping 384 accessions from different geographical regions (South Pacific, Asia, Africa and the Caribbean), using 24 microsatellite markers. Diversity structuration was assessed via Principal Coordinate Analysis, UPGMA analysis and the Bayesian approach implemented in STRUCTURE. Our results revealed the existence of a wide genetic diversity and a significant structuring associated with geographic origin, ploidy levels and morpho-agronomic characteristics. Seventeen major groups of genetically close cultivars have been identified, including eleven groups of diploid cultivars, four groups of triploids and two groups of tetraploids. STRUCTURE revealed the existence of six populations in the diploid genetic pool and a few admixed cultivars. These results will be very useful for rationalizing D. alata genetic resources in breeding programs across different regions and for improving germplasm conservation methods.

  19. Switching among graphic patterns is governed by oscillatory coordination dynamics: Implications for understanding handwriting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pier-Giorgio eZanone

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Revisiting an original idea by Hollerbach (1981, previous work has established that the production of graphic shapes, assumed to be the blueprint for handwriting, is governed by the dynamics of orthogonal non-linear coupled oscillators. Such dynamics determines few stable coordination patterns, giving rise to a limited set of preferred graphic shapes, namely, four lines and four ellipsoids independent of orientation. The present study investigates the rules of switching among such graphic coordination patterns. Seven participants were required to voluntarily switch within twelve pairs of shapes presented on a graphic tablet. In line with previous theoretical and experimental work on bimanual coordination, results corroborated our hypothesis that the relative stability of the produced coordination patterns determines the time needed for switching: the transition to a more stable pattern was shorter, and inversely. Moreover, switching between patterns with the same orientation but different eccentricities was faster than with a change in orientation. Nonetheless, the switching time covaried strictly with the change in relative phase effected by the transition between two shapes, whether this implied a change in eccentricity or in orientation. These findings suggest a new operational definition of what the (motor units or strokes of handwriting are and shed a novel light on how co-articulation and recruitment of degrees of freedom may occur in graphic skills. They also yield some leads for understanding the acquisition and the neural underpinnings of handwriting.

  20. CALCULATING ROTATING HYDRODYNAMIC AND MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC WAVES TO UNDERSTAND MAGNETIC EFFECTS ON DYNAMICAL TIDES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Xing, E-mail: xing.wei@sjtu.edu.cn [Institute of Natural Sciences and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Shanghai Jiao Tong University (China); Princeton University Observatory, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

    2016-09-01

    To understand magnetic effects on dynamical tides, we study the rotating magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flow driven by harmonic forcing. The linear responses are analytically derived in a periodic box under the local WKB approximation. Both the kinetic and Ohmic dissipations at the resonant frequencies are calculated, and the various parameters are investigated. Although magnetic pressure may be negligible compared to thermal pressure, the magnetic field can be important for the first-order perturbation, e.g., dynamical tides. It is found that the magnetic field splits the resonant frequency, namely the rotating hydrodynamic flow has only one resonant frequency, but the rotating MHD flow has two, one positive and the other negative. In the weak field regime the dissipations are asymmetric around the two resonant frequencies and this asymmetry is more striking with a weaker magnetic field. It is also found that both the kinetic and Ohmic dissipations at the resonant frequencies are inversely proportional to the Ekman number and the square of the wavenumber. The dissipation at the resonant frequency on small scales is almost equal to the dissipation at the non-resonant frequencies, namely the resonance takes its effect on the dissipation at intermediate length scales. Moreover, the waves with phase propagation that is perpendicular to the magnetic field are much more damped. It is also interesting to find that the frequency-averaged dissipation is constant. This result suggests that in compact objects, magnetic effects on tidal dissipation should be considered.

  1. Domain decomposition-based structural condensation of large protein structures for understanding their conformational dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jae In; Na, Sungsoo; Eom, Kilho

    2011-01-15

    Normal mode analysis (NMA) with coarse-grained model, such as elastic network model (ENM), has allowed the quantitative understanding of protein dynamics. As the protein size is increased, there emerges the expensive computational process to find the dynamically important low-frequency normal modes due to diagonalization of massive Hessian matrix. In this study, we have provided the domain decomposition-based structural condensation method that enables the efficient computations on low-frequency motions. Specifically, our coarse-graining method is established by coupling between model condensation (MC; Eom et al., J Comput Chem 2007, 28, 1400) and component mode synthesis (Kim et al., J Chem Theor Comput 2009, 5, 1931). A protein structure is first decomposed into substructural units, and then each substructural unit is coarse-grained by MC. Once the NMA is implemented to coarse-grained substructural units, normal modes and natural frequencies for each coarse-grained substructural unit are assembled by using geometric constraints to provide the normal modes and natural frequencies for whole protein structure. It is shown that our coarse-graining method enhances the computational efficiency for analysis of large protein complexes. It is clearly suggested that our coarse-graining method provides the B-factors of 100 large proteins, quantitatively comparable with those obtained from original NMA, with computational efficiency. Moreover, the collective behaviors and/or the correlated motions for model proteins are well delineated by our suggested coarse-grained models, quantitatively comparable with those computed from original NMA. It is implied that our coarse-grained method enables the computationally efficient studies on conformational dynamics of large protein complex.

  2. Toward an improved understanding of the role of transpiration in critical zone dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, B.; Papuga, S. A.

    2012-12-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the total water balance across any ecosystem. In subalpine mixed-conifer ecosystems, transpiration (T) often dominates the total water flux and therefore improved understanding of T is critical for accurate assessment of catchment water balance and for understanding of the processes that governs the complex dynamics across critical zone (CZ). The interaction between T and plant vegetation not only modulates soil water balance but also influences water transit time and hydrochemical flux - key factors in our understanding of how the CZ evolves and responds. Unlike an eddy covariance system which provides only an integrated ET flux from an ecosystem, a sap flow system can provide an estimate of the T flux from the ecosystem. By isolating T, the ecohydrological drivers of this major water loss from the CZ can be identified. Still, the species composition of mixed-conifer ecosystems vary and the drivers of T associated with each species are expected to be different. Therefore, accurate quantification of T from a mixed-conifer requires knowledge of the unique transpiration dynamics of each of the tree species. Here, we installed a sap flow system within two mixed-conifer study sites of the Jemez River Basin - Santa Catalina Mountains Critical Zone Observatory (JRB - SCM CZO). At both sites, we identified the dominant tree species and installed sap flow sensors on healthy representatives for each of those species. At the JRB CZO site, sap sensors were installed in fir (4) and spruce (4) trees; at the SCM CZO site, sap sensors were installed at white fir (4) and maple (4) and one dead tree. Meteorological data as well as soil temperature (Ts) and soil moisture (θ) at multiple depths were also collected from each of the two sites. Preliminary analysis of two years of sap flux rate at JRB - SCM CZO shows that the environmental drivers of fir, spruce, and maple are different and also vary throughout the year. For JRB fir

  3. Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; Zhang, J.-C.

    2017-01-01

    Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. For non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.

  4. A DYNAMICAL SIGNATURE OF MULTIPLE STELLAR POPULATIONS IN 47 TUCANAE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richer, Harvey B.; Heyl, Jeremy; Anderson, Jay; Kalirai, Jason S.; Shara, Michael M.; Dotter, Aaron; Fahlman, Gregory G.; Rich, R. Michael

    2013-01-01

    Based on the width of its main sequence, and an actual observed split when viewed through particular filters, it is widely accepted that 47 Tucanae contains multiple stellar populations. In this contribution, we divide the main sequence of 47 Tuc into four color groups, which presumably represent stars of various chemical compositions. The kinematic properties of each of these groups are explored via proper motions, and a strong signal emerges of differing proper-motion anisotropies with differing main-sequence color; the bluest main-sequence stars exhibit the largest proper-motion anisotropy which becomes undetectable for the reddest stars. In addition, the bluest stars are also the most centrally concentrated. A similar analysis for Small Magellanic Cloud stars, which are located in the background of 47 Tuc on our frames, yields none of the anisotropy exhibited by the 47 Tuc stars. We discuss implications of these results for possible formation scenarios of the various populations.

  5. The dynamics of endemic malaria in populations of varying size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngwa, G.A.

    2001-10-01

    A mathematical model for endemic malaria involving variable human and mosquito populations is analysed. A threshold parameter R 0 exists and the disease can persist if and only if R 0 exceeds 1. R 0 is seen to be a generalisation of the basic reproduction ratio associated with the Ross-Macdonald model for malaria transmission. The disease free equilibrium always exist and is globally stable when R 0 is below 1. A perturbation analysis is used to approximate the endemic equilibrium in the important case where the disease related death rate is nonzero. A diffusion approximation is used to approximate the quasi-stationary distribution of the associated stochastic model. Numerical simulations show that when R 0 is distinctly greater than 1, the endemic deterministic equilibrium is globally stable. Furthermore, in quasi-stationarity, the stochastic process undergoes oscillations about a mean population whose size can be approximated by the stable endemic deterministic equilibrium. (author)

  6. Linking environmental variability to population and community dynamics: Chapter 7

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantel, Jelena H.; Pendleton, Daniel E.; Walters, Annika W.; Rogers, Lauren A.

    2014-01-01

    Linking population and community responses to environmental variability lies at the heart of ecology, yet methodological approaches vary and existence of broad patterns spanning taxonomic groups remains unclear. We review the characteristics of environmental and biological variability. Classic approaches to link environmental variability to population and community variability are discussed as are the importance of biotic factors such as life history and community interactions. In addition to classic approaches, newer techniques such as information theory and artificial neural networks are reviewed. The establishment and expansion of observing networks will provide new long-term ecological time-series data, and with it, opportunities to incorporate environmental variability into research. This review can help guide future research in the field of ecological and environmental variability.

  7. Breeding site heterogeneity reduces variability in frog recruitment and population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Eby, Lisa A.; Maxell, Bryce A.; Corn, Paul Stephen

    2013-01-01

    Environmental stochasticity can have profound effects on the dynamics and viability of wild populations, and habitat heterogeneity provides one mechanism by which populations may be buffered against the negative effects of environmental fluctuations. Heterogeneity in breeding pond hydroperiod across the landscape may allow amphibian populations to persist despite variable interannual precipitation. We examined recruitment dynamics over 10 yr in a high-elevation Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) population that breeds in ponds with a variety of hydroperiods. We combined these data with matrix population models to quantify the consequences of heterogeneity in pond hydroperiod on net recruitment (i.e. number of metamorphs produced) and population growth rates. We compared our heterogeneous system to hypothetical homogeneous environments with only ephemeral ponds, only semi-permanent ponds, and only permanent ponds. We also examined the effects of breeding pond habitat loss on population growth rates. Most eggs were laid in permanent ponds each year, but survival to metamorphosis was highest in the semi-permanent ponds. Recruitment success varied by both year and pond type. Net recruitment and stochastic population growth rate were highest under a scenario with homogeneous semi-permanent ponds, but variability in recruitment was lowest in the scenario with the observed heterogeneity in hydroperiods. Loss of pond habitat decreased population growth rate, with greater decreases associated with loss of permanent and semi-permanent habitat. The presence of a diversity of pond hydroperiods on the landscape will influence population dynamics, including reducing variability in recruitment in an uncertain climatic future.

  8. Worldwide Phylogenetic Distributions and Population Dynamics of the Genus Histoplasma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, Marcus de M; Patané, José S L; Taylor, Maria L; Gómez, Beatriz L; Theodoro, Raquel C; de Hoog, Sybren; Engelthaler, David M; Zancopé-Oliveira, Rosely M; Felipe, Maria S S; Barker, Bridget M

    2016-06-01

    Histoplasma capsulatum comprises a worldwide complex of saprobiotic fungi mainly found in nitrogen/phosphate (often bird guano) enriched soils. The microconidia of Histoplasma species may be inhaled by mammalian hosts, and is followed by a rapid conversion to yeast that can persist in host tissues causing histoplasmosis, a deep pulmonary/systemic mycosis. Histoplasma capsulatum sensu lato is a complex of at least eight clades geographically distributed as follows: Australia, Netherlands, Eurasia, North American classes 1 and 2 (NAm 1 and NAm 2), Latin American groups A and B (LAm A and LAm B) and Africa. With the exception of the Eurasian cluster, those clades are considered phylogenetic species. Increased Histoplasma sampling (n = 234) resulted in the revision of the phylogenetic distribution and population structure using 1,563 aligned nucleotides from four protein-coding regions. The LAm B clade appears to be divided into at least two highly supported clades, which are geographically restricted to either Colombia/Argentina or Brazil respectively. Moreover, a complex population genetic structure was identified within LAm A clade supporting multiple monophylogenetic species, which could be driven by rapid host or environmental adaptation (~0.5 MYA). We found two divergent clades, which include Latin American isolates (newly named as LAm A1 and LAm A2), harboring a cryptic cluster in association with bats. At least six new phylogenetic species are proposed in the Histoplasma species complex supported by different phylogenetic and population genetics methods, comprising LAm A1, LAm A2, LAm B1, LAm B2, RJ and BAC-1 phylogenetic species. The genetic isolation of Histoplasma could be a result of differential dispersion potential of naturally infected bats and other mammals. In addition, the present study guides isolate selection for future population genomics and genome wide association studies in this important pathogen complex.

  9. Worldwide Phylogenetic Distributions and Population Dynamics of the Genus Histoplasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Maria L.; Gómez, Beatriz L.; Theodoro, Raquel C.; de Hoog, Sybren; Engelthaler, David M.; Zancopé-Oliveira, Rosely M.; Felipe, Maria S. S.

    2016-01-01

    Background Histoplasma capsulatum comprises a worldwide complex of saprobiotic fungi mainly found in nitrogen/phosphate (often bird guano) enriched soils. The microconidia of Histoplasma species may be inhaled by mammalian hosts, and is followed by a rapid conversion to yeast that can persist in host tissues causing histoplasmosis, a deep pulmonary/systemic mycosis. Histoplasma capsulatum sensu lato is a complex of at least eight clades geographically distributed as follows: Australia, Netherlands, Eurasia, North American classes 1 and 2 (NAm 1 and NAm 2), Latin American groups A and B (LAm A and LAm B) and Africa. With the exception of the Eurasian cluster, those clades are considered phylogenetic species. Methodology/Principal Findings Increased Histoplasma sampling (n = 234) resulted in the revision of the phylogenetic distribution and population structure using 1,563 aligned nucleotides from four protein-coding regions. The LAm B clade appears to be divided into at least two highly supported clades, which are geographically restricted to either Colombia/Argentina or Brazil respectively. Moreover, a complex population genetic structure was identified within LAm A clade supporting multiple monophylogenetic species, which could be driven by rapid host or environmental adaptation (~0.5 MYA). We found two divergent clades, which include Latin American isolates (newly named as LAm A1 and LAm A2), harboring a cryptic cluster in association with bats. Conclusions/Significance At least six new phylogenetic species are proposed in the Histoplasma species complex supported by different phylogenetic and population genetics methods, comprising LAm A1, LAm A2, LAm B1, LAm B2, RJ and BAC-1 phylogenetic species. The genetic isolation of Histoplasma could be a result of differential dispersion potential of naturally infected bats and other mammals. In addition, the present study guides isolate selection for future population genomics and genome wide association studies in this

  10. Modelling the effects of climate change on weed population dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    García de León Hernández, David

    2014-01-01

    As the human population continues to increase –it will have surpassed 9 billion people by 2050- food supply must rise in order to sustain people. Climate change represents a threat in the provision of sufficient, secure and nutritious nourishment for everyone. Possible consequences of climate change include a reduction in global agro-ecosystem production, with Spain as one of the most affected countries in Europe. Accordingly, little is known about the possible effects on weed ...

  11. Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanev Sergey ...

    2012-10-01

    Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

  12. Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M.

    Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the

  13. The population and seasonal dynamics of weevils developing in the soil of birch stands

    Science.gov (United States)

    E. Kula

    2003-01-01

    Curculionidae developing in the soil of birch stands in an air-polluted region were classified using the method of soil photoeclectors on the basis of their population dynamics (1986-2000) and phenology of their emergence from where they developed. In the course of 15 years we saw two evident culminations in the population density of Polydrusus undatus...

  14. Combining a weed traits database with a population dynamics model predicts shifts in weed communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Storkey, Jonathan; Holst, Niels; Bøjer, Ole Mission

    2015-01-01

    , populated and analysed, initially using data for 19 common European weeds, to begin to consolidate trait data in a single repository. The initial choice of traits was driven by the requirements of empirical models of weed population dynamics to identify correlations between traits and model parameters...

  15. Bacterial population dynamics during the ensiling of Medicago sativa (alfalfa) and subsequent exposure to air

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aims: To describe, at high resolution, the bacterial population dynamics and chemical transformations during the ensiling of alfalfa and subsequent exposure to air. Methods and Results: Samples of alfalfa, ensiled alfalfa, and silage exposed to air were collected and their bacterial population stru...

  16. Proceedings: population dynamics, impacts, and integrated management of forest defoliating insects

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.L. McManus; A.M., eds. Liebhold

    1998-01-01

    This publication contains 52 research papers about the population ecology and management of forest insect defoliators. These papers were presented at a joint meeting of working parties S7.03.06, "Integrated Management of Forest Defoliating Insects", and S7.03.07, "Population dynamics of forest insects", of the International Union of Forestry...

  17. Size at hatching determines population dynamics and response to harvesting in cannibalistic fish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooten, van T.; Andersson, J.; Bystrom, P.; Persson, L.; Roos, A.M.

    2010-01-01

    We hypothesize that size at hatching strongly affects population dynamics of cannibalistic fish species and is a crucial determinant of how populations respond to selective removal of large individuals (harvesting). We use a mechanistic mathematical model to study the relation between hatching size

  18. The characteristics of wild rat (Rattus spp. populations from an inner-city neighborhood with a focus on factors critical to the understanding of rat-associated zoonoses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chelsea G Himsworth

    Full Text Available Norway and black rats (Rattus norvegicus and Rattus rattus are among the most ubiquitous urban wildlife species and are the source of a number of zoonotic diseases responsible for significant human morbidity and mortality in cities around the world. Rodent ecology is a primary determinant of the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in rodent populations and the risk of pathogen transmission to people, yet many studies of rat-associated zoonoses do not account for the ecological characteristics of urban rat populations. This hinders the development of an in-depth understanding of the ecology of rat-associated zoonoses, limits comparability among studies, and can lead to erroneous conclusions. We conducted a year-long trapping-removal study to describe the ecological characteristics of urban rat populations in an inner-city neighborhood of Vancouver, Canada. The study focused on factors that might influence the ecology of zoonotic pathogens in these populations and/or our understanding of that ecology. We found that rat population density varied remarkably over short geographical distances, which could explain observed spatial distributions of rat-associated zoonoses and have implications for sampling and data analysis during research and surveillance. Season appeared to influence rat population composition even within the urban environment, which could cause temporal variation in pathogen prevalence. Body mass and bite wounds, which are often used in epidemiologic analyses as simple proxies for age and aggression, were shown to be more complex than previously thought. Finally, we found that factors associated with trapping can determine the size and composition of sampled rat population, and thus influence inferences made about the source population. These findings may help guide future studies of rats and rat-associated zoonoses.

  19. The characteristics of wild rat (Rattus spp.) populations from an inner-city neighborhood with a focus on factors critical to the understanding of rat-associated zoonoses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Himsworth, Chelsea G; Jardine, Claire M; Parsons, Kirbee L; Feng, Alice Y T; Patrick, David M

    2014-01-01

    Norway and black rats (Rattus norvegicus and Rattus rattus) are among the most ubiquitous urban wildlife species and are the source of a number of zoonotic diseases responsible for significant human morbidity and mortality in cities around the world. Rodent ecology is a primary determinant of the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in rodent populations and the risk of pathogen transmission to people, yet many studies of rat-associated zoonoses do not account for the ecological characteristics of urban rat populations. This hinders the development of an in-depth understanding of the ecology of rat-associated zoonoses, limits comparability among studies, and can lead to erroneous conclusions. We conducted a year-long trapping-removal study to describe the ecological characteristics of urban rat populations in an inner-city neighborhood of Vancouver, Canada. The study focused on factors that might influence the ecology of zoonotic pathogens in these populations and/or our understanding of that ecology. We found that rat population density varied remarkably over short geographical distances, which could explain observed spatial distributions of rat-associated zoonoses and have implications for sampling and data analysis during research and surveillance. Season appeared to influence rat population composition even within the urban environment, which could cause temporal variation in pathogen prevalence. Body mass and bite wounds, which are often used in epidemiologic analyses as simple proxies for age and aggression, were shown to be more complex than previously thought. Finally, we found that factors associated with trapping can determine the size and composition of sampled rat population, and thus influence inferences made about the source population. These findings may help guide future studies of rats and rat-associated zoonoses.

  20. Population Spatial Dynamics of Larix potaninii in Alpine Treeline Ecotone in the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia’nan Cui

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The high-altitude treeline is known to be sensitive to climate variability, and is thus considered as a bio-monitoring indicator of climate change. However, our understanding of the population dynamics and the cumulative climate-change effects on the alpine treeline ecotone in recent decades is limited. Here, we investigated the population dynamics of Larix potainii on the south- and north-facing slopes in the alpine treeline ecotone in the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China, including treeline position, population density, and tree recruitment. Results showed that on both south- and north-facing slopes, the treeline did not show a significant advancement in the past four decades. The population was dominated by young individuals, which tend to be established in the lower areas. Larix, here, tends to be clustered, especially in the upper areas. However, population density increased dramatically only on north-facing slopes. Larix here suffer from the stressful environment, but the warmer winter due to climate warming could facilitate the vertical growth of seedlings and saplings. Aggregated spatial patterns also provide a positive feedback in ameliorating the harsh environment. The slope-climate-moisture interactions have a pronounced impact on tree recruitment, including snow-limited tree establishment on the north-facing slopes and moisture-limited tree establishment on the south-facing slopes.