WorldWideScience

Sample records for understanding population dynamics

  1. Exploiting Fast-Variables to Understand Population Dynamics and Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

    2017-11-01

    We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are caused by individual events while the dynamics are described in terms of the time-evolution of a probability density function. In general, the application of the diffusion approximation still leaves a description that is quite complex. However, in many biological applications one or more of the processes happen slowly relative to the system's other processes, and the dynamics can be approximated as occurring within a slow low-dimensional subspace. We review these time-scale separation arguments and analyse the more simple stochastic dynamics that result in a number of cases. We stress that it is important to retain the demographic noise derived in this way, and emphasise this point by showing that it can alter the direction of selection compared to the prediction made from an analysis of the corresponding deterministic model.

  2. Understanding Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mothner, Ira

    Activities and concerns of Ford Foundation supported population research and training centers are described in this report. The centers are concerned with population growth, consequences of growth for human welfare, forces that determine family planning, interrelations among population variables, economics of contraceptive distribution, and…

  3. A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

  4. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

  5. Population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cooch, E. G.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Increases or decreases in the size of populations over space and time are, arguably, the motivation for much of pure and applied ecological research. The fundamental model for the dynamics of any population is straightforward: the net change over time in the abundance of some population is the simple difference between the number of additions (individuals entering the population minus the number of subtractions (individuals leaving the population. Of course, the precise nature of the pattern and process of these additions and subtractions is often complex, and population biology is often replete with fairly dense mathematical representations of both processes. While there is no doubt that analysis of such abstract descriptions of populations has been of considerable value in advancing our, there has often existed a palpable discomfort when the ‘beautiful math’ is faced with the often ‘ugly realities’ of empirical data. In some cases, this attempted merger is abandoned altogether, because of the paucity of ‘good empirical data’ with which the theoretician can modify and evaluate more conceptually–based models. In some cases, the lack of ‘data’ is more accurately represented as a lack of robust estimates of one or more parameters. It is in this arena that methods developed to analyze multiple encounter data from individually marked organisms has seen perhaps the greatest advances. These methods have rapidly evolved to facilitate not only estimation of one or more vital rates, critical to population modeling and analysis, but also to allow for direct estimation of both the dynamics of populations (e.g., Pradel, 1996, and factors influencing those dynamics (e.g., Nichols et al., 2000. The interconnections between the various vital rates, their estimation, and incorporation into models, was the general subject of our plenary presentation by Hal Caswell (Caswell & Fujiwara, 2004. Caswell notes that although interest has traditionally

  6. Dynamic Analytical Capability to Better Understand and Anticipate Extremist Shifts Within Populations under Authoritarian Regimes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, Michael Lewis [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-11-01

    The purpose of this work is to create a generalizable data- and theory-supported capability to better understand and anticipate (with quantifiable uncertainty): 1) how the dynamics of allegiance formations between various groups and society are impacted by active conflict and by third-party interventions and 2) how/why extremist allegiances co-evolve over time due to changing geopolitical, sociocultural, and military conditions.

  7. Market Squid Population Dynamics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains population dynamics data on paralarvae, juvenile and adult market squid collected off California and the US Pacific Northwest. These data were...

  8. Fish population dynamics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gulland, J. A

    1977-01-01

    This book describes how the dynamics of fish populations can be analysed in terms of the factors affecting their rates of growth, mortality and reproduction, with particular emphasis on the effects of fishing...

  9. Population dynamics of Eldana saccharina Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae): application of a biophysical model to understand phenological variation in an agricultural pest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleynhans, E; Barton, M G; Conlong, D E; Terblanche, J S

    2017-08-08

    Understanding pest population dynamics and seasonal phenology is a critical component of modern integrated pest-management programs. Accurate forecasting allows timely, cost-effective interventions, including maximum efficacy of, for example, biological control and/or sterile insect technique. Due to the variation in life stage-related sensitivity toward climate, insect pest population abundance models are often not easily interpreted or lack direct relevance to management strategies in the field. Here we apply a process-based (biophysical) model that incorporates climate data with life stage-dependent physiology and life history to attempt to predict Eldana saccharina life stage and generation turnover in sugarcane fields. Fitness traits are modelled at two agricultural locations in South Africa that differ in average temperature (hereafter a cold and a warm site). We test whether the life stage population structures in the field entering winter and local climate during winter directly affect development rates, and therefore interact to determine the population dynamics and phenological responses of E. saccharina in subsequent spring and summer seasons. The model predicts that: (1) E. saccharina can cycle through more generations at the warm site where fewer hours of cold and heat stress are endured, and (2) at the cold site, overwintering as pupae (rather than larvae) confer higher relative fitness and fecundity in the subsequent summer adult moths. The model predictions were compared with a large dataset of field observations from scouting records. Model predictions for larval presence (or absence) generally overlapped well with positive (or negative) scout records. These results are important for integrated pest management strategies by providing a useful foundation for future population dynamics models, and are applicable to a variety of agricultural landscapes, but especially the sugarcane industry of South Africa.

  10. How systematic age underestimation can impede understanding of fish population dynamics: Lessons learned from a Lake Superior cisco stock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yule, D.L.; Stockwell, J.D.; Black, J.A.; Cullis, K.I.; Cholwek, G.A.; Myers, J.T.

    2008-01-01

    Systematic underestimation of fish age can impede understanding of recruitment variability and adaptive strategies (like longevity) and can bias estimates of survivorship. We suspected that previous estimates of annual survival (S; range = 0.20-0.44) for Lake Superior ciscoes Coregonus artedi developed from scale ages were biased low. To test this hypothesis, we estimated the total instantaneous mortality rate of adult ciscoes from the Thunder Bay, Ontario, stock by use of cohort-based catch curves developed from commercial gill-net catches and otolith-aged fish. Mean S based on otolith ages was greater for adult females (0.80) than for adult males (0.75), but these differences were not significant. Applying the results of a study of agreement between scale and otolith ages, we modeled a scale age for each otolith-aged fish to reconstruct catch curves. Using modeled scale ages, estimates of S (0.42 for females, 0.36 for males) were comparable with those reported in past studies. We conducted a November 2005 acoustic and midwater trawl survey to estimate the abundance of ciscoes when the fish were being harvested for roe. Estimated exploitation rates were 0.085 for females and 0.025 for males, and the instantaneous rates of fishing mortality were 0.089 for females and 0.025 for males. The instantaneous rates of natural mortality were 0.131 and 0.265 for females and males, respectively. Using otolith ages, we found that strong year-classes at large during November 2005 were caught in high numbers as age-1 fish in previous annual bottom trawl surveys, whereas weak or absent year-classes were not. For decades, large-scale fisheries on the Great Lakes were allowed to operate because ciscoes were assumed to be short lived and to have regular recruitment. We postulate that the collapse of these fisheries was linked in part to a misunderstanding of cisco biology driven by scale-ageing error. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  11. Nonlinear dynamics of interacting populations

    CERN Document Server

    Bazykin, Alexander D

    1998-01-01

    This book contains a systematic study of ecological communities of two or three interacting populations. Starting from the Lotka-Volterra system, various regulating factors are considered, such as rates of birth and death, predation and competition. The different factors can have a stabilizing or a destabilizing effect on the community, and their interplay leads to increasingly complicated behavior. Studying and understanding this path to greater dynamical complexity of ecological systems constitutes the backbone of this book. On the mathematical side, the tool of choice is the qualitative the

  12. Africa population dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Akinyoade, A.; Damen, J.C.M.; Dietz, A.J.; Kilama, B.B.; Omme, van, G.

    2014-01-01

    Africa's population has grown extremely rapidly over the last fifty years from 289 million inhabitants in 1961 to more than 1 billion today. This is a growth rate of 350% in just half a century and the number of urban residents has increased even more quickly: from 65 million in 1960 to 460 million today, or from 20% to 46% of the population as a whole. Demographers predict that soon more than 50% of all Africans will be living in cities. The average life expectancy, literacy rates and primar...

  13. Africa population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akinyoade, A.; Damen, J.C.M.; Dietz, A.J.; Kilama, B.B.; Omme, van G.

    2014-01-01

    Africa's population has grown extremely rapidly over the last fifty years from 289 million inhabitants in 1961 to more than 1 billion today. This is a growth rate of 350% in just half a century and the number of urban residents has increased even more quickly: from 65 million in 1960 to 460 million

  14. Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

    2012-02-01

    How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

  15. Dynamical systems in population biology

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-01-01

    This research monograph provides an introduction to the theory of nonautonomous semiflows with applications to population dynamics. It develops dynamical system approaches to various evolutionary equations such as difference, ordinary, functional, and partial differential equations, and pays more attention to periodic and almost periodic phenomena. The presentation includes persistence theory, monotone dynamics, periodic and almost periodic semiflows, basic reproduction ratios, traveling waves, and global analysis of prototypical population models in ecology and epidemiology. Research mathematicians working with nonlinear dynamics, particularly those interested in applications to biology, will find this book useful. It may also be used as a textbook or as supplementary reading for a graduate special topics course on the theory and applications of dynamical systems. Dr. Xiao-Qiang Zhao is a University Research Professor at Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada. His main research interests involve applied...

  16. Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

    2018-01-01

    Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.

  17. Understanding the sub-cellular dynamics of silicon transportation and synthesis in diatoms using population-level data and computational optimization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narjes Javaheri

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Controlled synthesis of silicon is a major challenge in nanotechnology and material science. Diatoms, the unicellular algae, are an inspiring example of silica biosynthesis, producing complex and delicate nano-structures. This happens in several cell compartments, including cytoplasm and silica deposition vesicle (SDV. Considering the low concentration of silicic acid in oceans, cells have developed silicon transporter proteins (SIT. Moreover, cells change the level of active SITs during one cell cycle, likely as a response to the level of external nutrients and internal deposition rates. Despite this topic being of fundamental interest, the intracellular dynamics of nutrients and cell regulation strategies remain poorly understood. One reason is the difficulties in measurements and manipulation of these mechanisms at such small scales, and even when possible, data often contain large errors. Therefore, using computational techniques seems inevitable. We have constructed a mathematical model for silicon dynamics in the diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana in four compartments: external environment, cytoplasm, SDV and deposited silica. The model builds on mass conservation and Michaelis-Menten kinetics as mass transport equations. In order to find the free parameters of the model from sparse, noisy experimental data, an optimization technique (global and local search, together with enzyme related penalty terms, has been applied. We have connected population-level data to individual-cell-level quantities including the effect of early division of non-synchronized cells. Our model is robust, proven by sensitivity and perturbation analysis, and predicts dynamics of intracellular nutrients and enzymes in different compartments. The model produces different uptake regimes, previously recognized as surge, externally-controlled and internally-controlled uptakes. Finally, we imposed a flux of SITs to the model and compared it with previous classical kinetics

  18. Nonlinear Relaxation in Population Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirone, Markus A.; de Pasquale, Ferdinando; Spagnolo, Bernardo

    We analyze the nonlinear relaxation of a complex ecosystem composed of many interacting species. The ecological system is described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations with a multiplicative noise. The transient dynamics is studied in the framework of the mean field theory and with random interaction between the species. We focus on the statistical properties of the asymptotic behaviour of the time integral of the ith population and on the distribution of the population and of the local field.

  19. Conclusions, synthesis, and future directions: understanding sources of population change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esler, Daniel N.; Flint, Paul L.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Savard, Jean-Pierre L.; Eadie, John M.

    2015-01-01

    The material in this volume reflects the burgeoning interest in sea ducks, both as study species with compelling and unique ecological attributes and as taxa of conservation concern. In this review, we provide perspective on the current state of sea duck knowledge by highlighting key findings in the preceding chapters that are of particular value for understanding or influencing population change. We also introduce a conceptual model that characterizes links among topics covered by individual chapters and places them in the context of demographic responses. Finally, we offer recommendations for areas of future research that we suggest will have importance for understanding and managing sea duck population dynamics.

  20. Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bariabagar, H

    1978-01-01

    2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.

  1. Population dynamics in variable environments

    CERN Document Server

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    1990-01-01

    Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula­ tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to re...

  2. The Microbial Database for Danish wastewater treatment plants with nutrient removal (MiDas-DK) - a tool for understanding activated sludge population dynamics and community stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mielczarek, A T; Saunders, A M; Larsen, P; Albertsen, M; Stevenson, M; Nielsen, J L; Nielsen, P H

    2013-01-01

    Since 2006 more than 50 Danish full-scale wastewater treatment plants with nutrient removal have been investigated in a project called 'The Microbial Database for Danish Activated Sludge Wastewater Treatment Plants with Nutrient Removal (MiDas-DK)'. Comprehensive sets of samples have been collected, analyzed and associated with extensive operational data from the plants. The community composition was analyzed by quantitative fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) supported by 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing and deep metagenomics. MiDas-DK has been a powerful tool to study the complex activated sludge ecosystems, and, besides many scientific articles on fundamental issues on mixed communities encompassing nitrifiers, denitrifiers, bacteria involved in P-removal, hydrolysis, fermentation, and foaming, the project has provided results that can be used to optimize the operation of full-scale plants and carry out trouble-shooting. A core microbial community has been defined comprising the majority of microorganisms present in the plants. Time series have been established, providing an overview of temporal variations in the different plants. Interestingly, although most microorganisms were present in all plants, there seemed to be plant-specific factors that controlled the population composition thereby keeping it unique in each plant over time. Statistical analyses of FISH and operational data revealed some correlations, but less than expected. MiDas-DK (www.midasdk.dk) will continue over the next years and we hope the approach can inspire others to make similar projects in other parts of the world to get a more comprehensive understanding of microbial communities in wastewater engineering.

  3. Perturbation analysis of transient population dynamics using matrix projection models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain

    2016-01-01

    Non-stable populations exhibit short-term transient dynamics: size, growth and structure that are unlike predicted long-term asymptotic stable, stationary or equilibrium dynamics. Understanding transient dynamics of non-stable populations is important for designing effective population management...... these methods to know exactly what is being measured. Despite a wealth of existing methods, I identify some areas that would benefit from further development....

  4. Complexity and simplification in understanding recruitment in benthic populations

    KAUST Repository

    Pineda, Jesús

    2008-11-13

    Research of complex systems and problems, entities with many dependencies, is often reductionist. The reductionist approach splits systems or problems into different components, and then addresses these components one by one. This approach has been used in the study of recruitment and population dynamics of marine benthic (bottom-dwelling) species. Another approach examines benthic population dynamics by looking at a small set of processes. This approach is statistical or model-oriented. Simplified approaches identify "macroecological" patterns or attempt to identify and model the essential, "first-order" elements of the system. The complexity of the recruitment and population dynamics problems stems from the number of processes that can potentially influence benthic populations, including (1) larval pool dynamics, (2) larval transport, (3) settlement, and (4) post-settlement biotic and abiotic processes, and larval production. Moreover, these processes are non-linear, some interact, and they may operate on disparate scales. This contribution discusses reductionist and simplified approaches to study benthic recruitment and population dynamics of bottom-dwelling marine invertebrates. We first address complexity in two processes known to influence recruitment, larval transport, and post-settlement survival to reproduction, and discuss the difficulty in understanding recruitment by looking at relevant processes individually and in isolation. We then address the simplified approach, which reduces the number of processes and makes the problem manageable. We discuss how simplifications and "broad-brush first-order approaches" may muddle our understanding of recruitment. Lack of empirical determination of the fundamental processes often results in mistaken inferences, and processes and parameters used in some models can bias our view of processes influencing recruitment. We conclude with a discussion on how to reconcile complex and simplified approaches. Although it

  5. The failure rate dynamics in heterogeneous populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim

    2013-01-01

    Most populations encountered in real world are heterogeneous. In reliability applications, the mixture (observed) failure rate, obviously, can be considered as a measure of ‘average’ quality in these populations. However, in addition to this average measure, some variability characteristics for failure rates can be very helpful in describing the time-dependent changes in quality of heterogeneous populations. In this paper, we discuss variance and the coefficient of variation of the corresponding random failure rate as variability measures for items in heterogeneous populations. Furthermore, there is often a risk that items of poor quality are selected for important missions. Therefore, along with the ‘average quality’ of a population, more ‘conservative’ quality measures should be also defined and studied. For this purpose, we propose the percentile and the tail-mixture of the failure rates as the corresponding conservative measures. Some illustrative examples are given. -- Highlights: ► This paper provides the insight on the variability measures in heterogeneous populations. ► The conservative quality measures in heterogeneous populations are defined. ► The utility of these measures is illustrated by meaningful examples. ► This paper provides a better understanding of the dynamics in heterogeneous populations

  6. Understanding and Modeling Teams As Dynamical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, Jamie C.; Dunbar, Terri A.; Grimm, David; Gipson, Christina L.

    2017-01-01

    By its very nature, much of teamwork is distributed across, and not stored within, interdependent people working toward a common goal. In this light, we advocate a systems perspective on teamwork that is based on general coordination principles that are not limited to cognitive, motor, and physiological levels of explanation within the individual. In this article, we present a framework for understanding and modeling teams as dynamical systems and review our empirical findings on teams as dynamical systems. We proceed by (a) considering the question of why study teams as dynamical systems, (b) considering the meaning of dynamical systems concepts (attractors; perturbation; synchronization; fractals) in the context of teams, (c) describe empirical studies of team coordination dynamics at the perceptual-motor, cognitive-behavioral, and cognitive-neurophysiological levels of analysis, and (d) consider the theoretical and practical implications of this approach, including new kinds of explanations of human performance and real-time analysis and performance modeling. Throughout our discussion of the topics we consider how to describe teamwork using equations and/or modeling techniques that describe the dynamics. Finally, we consider what dynamical equations and models do and do not tell us about human performance in teams and suggest future research directions in this area. PMID:28744231

  7. Understanding the Entrepreneurial Process: a Dynamic Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vânia Maria Jorge Nassif

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available There is considerable predominance in the adoption of perspectives based on characteristics in research into entrepreneurship. However, most studies describe the entrepreneur from a static or snapshot approach; very few adopt a dynamic perspective. The aim of this study is to contribute to the enhancement of knowledge concerning entrepreneurial process dynamics through an understanding of the values, characteristics and actions of the entrepreneur over time. By focusing on personal attributes, we have developed a framework that shows the importance of affective and cognitive aspects of entrepreneurs and the way that they evolve during the development of their business.

  8. Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

  9. Delay differential systems for tick population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Guihong; Thieme, Horst R; Zhu, Huaiping

    2015-11-01

    Ticks play a critical role as vectors in the transmission and spread of Lyme disease, an emerging infectious disease which can cause severe illness in humans or animals. To understand the transmission dynamics of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases, it is necessary to investigate the population dynamics of ticks. Here, we formulate a system of delay differential equations which models the stage structure of the tick population. Temperature can alter the length of time delays in each developmental stage, and so the time delays can vary geographically (and seasonally which we do not consider). We define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of stage structured tick populations. The tick population is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text] and dies out if [Formula: see text]. We present sufficient conditions under which the unique positive equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. In general, the positive equilibrium can be unstable and the system show oscillatory behavior. These oscillations are primarily due to negative feedback within the tick system, but can be enhanced by the time delays of the different developmental stages.

  10. Analysis of Population Dynamics in World Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Gress

    2011-01-01

    Population dynamics is an important topic in current world economy. The size and growth of population have an impact on economic growth and development of individual countries and vice versa, economic development influences demographic variables in a country. The aim of the article is to analyze historical development of world population, population stock change and relations between population stock change and economic development.

  11. Allee effects on population dynamics with delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Celik, C.; Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we study the stability analysis of equilibrium points of population dynamics with delay when the Allee effect occurs at low population density. Mainly, our mathematical results and numerical simulations point to the stabilizing effect of the Allee effects on population dynamics with delay

  12. PGG.Population: a database for understanding the genomic diversity and genetic ancestry of human populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chao; Gao, Yang; Liu, Jiaojiao; Xue, Zhe; Lu, Yan; Deng, Lian; Tian, Lei; Feng, Qidi; Xu, Shuhua

    2018-01-04

    There are a growing number of studies focusing on delineating genetic variations that are associated with complex human traits and diseases due to recent advances in next-generation sequencing technologies. However, identifying and prioritizing disease-associated causal variants relies on understanding the distribution of genetic variations within and among populations. The PGG.Population database documents 7122 genomes representing 356 global populations from 107 countries and provides essential information for researchers to understand human genomic diversity and genetic ancestry. These data and information can facilitate the design of research studies and the interpretation of results of both evolutionary and medical studies involving human populations. The database is carefully maintained and constantly updated when new data are available. We included miscellaneous functions and a user-friendly graphical interface for visualization of genomic diversity, population relationships (genetic affinity), ancestral makeup, footprints of natural selection, and population history etc. Moreover, PGG.Population provides a useful feature for users to analyze data and visualize results in a dynamic style via online illustration. The long-term ambition of the PGG.Population, together with the joint efforts from other researchers who contribute their data to our database, is to create a comprehensive depository of geographic and ethnic variation of human genome, as well as a platform bringing influence on future practitioners of medicine and clinical investigators. PGG.Population is available at https://www.pggpopulation.org. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  13. Understanding the population dimension in development planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, P C

    1983-01-01

    In the Philippines initial efforts to adopt population policies focused on reducing rapid population growth through fertility control. The history of the national population welfare congress, which started in 1978, reflects this emphasis on family planning as a major deterrent to rapid population growth. It was only in recent years that the 2-way relationship between population and development came to be better appreciated. The 6th National Populaton Welfare Congress was a response to this need to broaden the scope of population concerns and integrate the population dimension into development planning. This viewpoint regards population not as a demand variable but as a factor that can be influenced by economic and social development. Dr. Mercedes B. Concepcion, dean of the University of the Philippines Population Institute (UPPI), discussed population trends, prospects, and problems in a paper presented before the 6th congress. In 1980, she said, the Philippine population was 48.1 million persons, up by 11.4 million persons or 31%, over the3l.7 million enumerated in 1970. While the rate of populated growth remains high, data indicate a decreasing post-World War II trend, from 3.06% in 1948-60 to 2.68% in 1975-80. The proportion of the population below 15 has dropped by 2 percentage points, while the number of persons in the working ages 15-64 has increased. In 1 of the 3 group sessions during the congress, the participants tried to define the Philippines' population distribution goals, the requirement of an urban-rural balance, and priority intervention areas. In that session 2 main papers were presented -- one on human settlements and urbanization and the other on macroeconomic policies and their spatial implications. In another sessionplanners and researchers examined the socioeconomic and demographic impact of development programs, specifically the impact of rural electrification on fertility change in Misamis Oriental, a province in Southern Philippines. In the

  14. Population dynamics at high Reynolds number

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perlekar, P.; Benzi, R.; Nelson, D.R.; Toschi, F.

    2010-01-01

    We study the statistical properties of population dynamics evolving in a realistic two-dimensional compressible turbulent velocity field. We show that the interplay between turbulent dynamics and population growth and saturation leads to quasi-localization and a remarkable reduction in the carrying

  15. Understanding the dynamics of parent involvement in schooling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Understanding the dynamics of parent involvement in schooling within the poverty context. ... South African Journal of Education ... understand the realities and dynamics facing parents when attempting to be involved in their child\\'s schooling.

  16. Geography, European colonization, and past population dynamics in Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Vaz Silva, Luis

    2005-01-01

    Past population dynamics in Africa have remained largely elusive due to the lack of demographic data. Researchers are understandably deterred from trying to explain what is not known and African historical population estimates suffer from this lack of interest. In this paper I explain present day African population densities using mostly ecological factors as explanatory variables. I find evidence supporting the view that ecological factors deeply affected precolonial patterns of human settle...

  17. Population dynamics and population control of Galium aparine L.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weide, van der R.Y.

    1993-01-01

    The population biology of Galium aparine L. needs to be better understood, in order to be able to rationalize decisions about the short- and long-term control of this weed species for different cropping practices.

    A population dynamics model was developed to

  18. provisional analysis of population dynamics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Nicholas Mitchison

    2018-01-11

    Jan 11, 2018 ... Western populations covered by OMIM, or are so mediated to a lesser extent. This we attribute ... tlenecks affected southern Asia: a coalescence analysis of ... included comprehensive survey of previous work (Atkin- son et al.

  19. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λbounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  20. Population dynamics and rural poverty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fong, M S

    1985-01-01

    An overview of the relationship between demographic factors and rural poverty in developing countries is presented. The author examines both the micro- and macro-level perspectives of this relationship and the determinants and consequences of population growth. The author notes the prospects for a rapid increase in the rural labor force and considers its implications for the agricultural production structure and the need for institutional change. Consideration is also given to the continuing demand for high fertility at the family level and the role of infant and child mortality in the poverty cycle. "The paper concludes by drawing attention to the need for developing the mechanism for reconciliation of social and individual optima with respect to family size and population growth." The need for rural development projects that take demographic factors into account is stressed as is the need for effective population programs. (summary in FRE, ITA) excerpt

  1. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF PSEUDO-NITZSCHIA SPECIES ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    nb

    current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia ... and to the developing aquaculture industry ... B. Hotel. Pangani Island. Bongoyo Island. Mbudya Island. Msasani Bay ... Salinity values did not show clear trends.

  2. Weed ecology and population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    A global rise in herbicide resistant weed genotypes, coupled with a growing demand for food produced with minimal external synthetic inputs, is driving producer interest in reducing reliance on herbicides for weed management. An improved understanding of weed ecology can support the design of weed s...

  3. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  4. Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

    1995-01-01

    A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

  5. Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

  6. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

    2008-01-01

    approaches, we analyse concurrently the influence of climatic variability and trophic interactions on the temporal population dynamics of species in the terrestrial vertebrate community at Zackenberg. We describe and contrast the population dynamics of three predator species (arctic fox Alopex lagopus, stoat...... of arctic fox were not significantly related to changes in lemming abundance, both the stoat and the breeding of long-tailed skua were mainly related to lemming dynamics. The predator-prey system at Zackenberg differentiates from previously described systems in high-arctic Greenland, which, we suggest...

  7. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

    2016-02-01

    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

  8. Population Dynamics and Air Pollution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flachs, Esben Meulengracht; Sørensen, Jan; Bønløkke, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To explore how three different assumptions on demographics affect the health impact of Danish emitted air pollution in Denmark from 2005 to 2030, with health impact modeled from 2005 to 2050. Methods. Modeled air pollution from Danish sources was used as exposure in a newly developed......) a static year 2005 population, (2) morbidity and mortality fixed at the year 2005 level, or (3) an expected development. Results. The health impact of air pollution was estimated at 672,000, 290,000, and 280,000 lost life years depending on demographic assumptions and the corresponding social costs at 430.......4 M€, 317.5 M€, and 261.6 M€ through the modeled years 2005–2050. Conclusion. The modeled health impact of air pollution differed widely with the demographic assumptions, and thus demographics and assumptions on demographics played a key role in making health impact assessments on air pollution....

  9. Population dynamics in vasopressin cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leng, Gareth; Brown, Colin; Sabatier, Nancy; Scott, Victoria

    2008-01-01

    Most neurons sense and code change, and when presented with a constant stimulus they adapt, so as to be able to detect a fresh change. However, for some things it is important to know their absolute level; to encode such information, neurons must sustain their response to an unchanging stimulus while remaining able to respond to a change in that stimulus. One system that encodes the absolute level of a stimulus is the vasopressin system, which generates a hormonal signal that is proportional to plasma osmolality. Vasopressin cells sense plasma osmolality and secrete appropriate levels of vasopressin from the neurohypophysis as needed to control water excretion; this requires sustained secretion under basal conditions and the ability to increase (or decrease) secretion should plasma osmolality change. Here we explore the mechanisms that enable vasopressin cells to fulfill this function, and consider how coordination between the cells might distribute the secretory load across the population of vasopressin cells. 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  10. Population dynamics in the high Arctic: Climate variations in time and space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendrichsen, Ditte Katrine

    Climatic factors profoundly influence the population dynamics, species interactions and demography of Arctic species. Analyses of the spatio-temporal dynamics within and across species are therefore necessary to understand and predict the responses of Arctic ecosystems to climatic variability...

  11. Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

    2018-01-01

    In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

  12. Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

    2018-01-01

    In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

  13. Understanding dynamic capabilities through knowledge management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anders Paarup

    2006-01-01

    In the paper eight knowledge management activities are identified; knowledge creation, acquisition, capture, assembly, sharing, integration, leverage and exploitation. These activities are assembled into the three dynamic capabilities of knowledge development, knowledge (re......)combination and knowledge use. The dynamic capabilities and the associated knowledge management activities create flows to and from the firm’s stock of knowledge and they support the creation and use of organizational capabilities....

  14. Changes in Population Dynamics in Mutualistic versus Pathogenic Viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn J. Roossinck

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  15. Dynamics of genome rearrangement in bacterial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron E Darling

    2008-07-01

    represent the first characterization of genome arrangement evolution in a bacterial population evolving outside laboratory conditions. Insight into the process of genomic rearrangement may further the understanding of pathogen population dynamics and selection on the architecture of circular bacterial chromosomes.

  16. Understanding the Implications of Neural Population Activity on Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briguglio, John

    Learning how neural activity in the brain leads to the behavior we exhibit is one of the fundamental questions in Neuroscience. In this dissertation, several lines of work are presented to that use principles of neural coding to understand behavior. In one line of work, we formulate the efficient coding hypothesis in a non-traditional manner in order to test human perceptual sensitivity to complex visual textures. We find a striking agreement between how variable a particular texture signal is and how sensitive humans are to its presence. This reveals that the efficient coding hypothesis is still a guiding principle for neural organization beyond the sensory periphery, and that the nature of cortical constraints differs from the peripheral counterpart. In another line of work, we relate frequency discrimination acuity to neural responses from auditory cortex in mice. It has been previously observed that optogenetic manipulation of auditory cortex, in addition to changing neural responses, evokes changes in behavioral frequency discrimination. We are able to account for changes in frequency discrimination acuity on an individual basis by examining the Fisher information from the neural population with and without optogenetic manipulation. In the third line of work, we address the question of what a neural population should encode given that its inputs are responses from another group of neurons. Drawing inspiration from techniques in machine learning, we train Deep Belief Networks on fake retinal data and show the emergence of Garbor-like filters, reminiscent of responses in primary visual cortex. In the last line of work, we model the state of a cortical excitatory-inhibitory network during complex adaptive stimuli. Using a rate model with Wilson-Cowan dynamics, we demonstrate that simple non-linearities in the signal transferred from inhibitory to excitatory neurons can account for real neural recordings taken from auditory cortex. This work establishes and tests

  17. Particle algorithms for population dynamics in flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perlekar, Prasad; Toschi, Federico; Benzi, Roberto; Pigolotti, Simone

    2011-01-01

    We present and discuss particle based algorithms to numerically study the dynamics of population subjected to an advecting flow condition. We discuss few possible variants of the algorithms and compare them in a model compressible flow. A comparison against appropriate versions of the continuum stochastic Fisher equation (sFKPP) is also presented and discussed. The algorithms can be used to study populations genetics in fluid environments.

  18. Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

    In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three

  19. Understanding bicycling in cities using system dynamics modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macmillan, Alexandra; Woodcock, James

    2017-12-01

    Increasing urban bicycling has established net benefits for human and environmental health. Questions remain about which policies are needed and in what order, to achieve an increase in cycling while avoiding negative consequences. Novel ways of considering cycling policy are needed, bringing together expertise across policy, community and research to develop a shared understanding of the dynamically complex cycling system. In this paper we use a collaborative learning process to develop a dynamic causal model of urban cycling to develop consensus about the nature and order of policies needed in different cycling contexts to optimise outcomes. We used participatory system dynamics modelling to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) of cycling in three contrasting contexts: Auckland, London and Nijmegen. We combined qualitative interviews and workshops to develop the CLDs. We used the three CLDs to compare and contrast influences on cycling at different points on a "cycling trajectory" and drew out policy insights. The three CLDs consisted of feedback loops dynamically influencing cycling, with significant overlap between the three diagrams. Common reinforcing patterns emerged: growing numbers of people cycling lifts political will to improve the environment; cycling safety in numbers drives further growth; and more cycling can lead to normalisation across the population. By contrast, limits to growth varied as cycling increases. In Auckland and London, real and perceived danger was considered the main limit, with added barriers to normalisation in London. Cycling congestion and "market saturation" were important in the Netherlands. A generalisable, dynamic causal theory for urban cycling enables a more ordered set of policy recommendations for different cities on a cycling trajectory. Participation meant the collective knowledge of cycling stakeholders was represented and triangulated with research evidence. Extending this research to further cities, especially in low

  20. Ideas and things: understanding the dynamic dimension of intellectual capital

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Christiaan Stam

    2010-01-01

    In today’s intellectual capital literature, we see a shift from identifying intangibles towards understanding the dynamics of value creation. As it is not clear what “dynamic” stands for, the aim of this explorative and conceptual paper is to contribute to a better understanding of the dynamic

  1. Understanding Digital Learning from the Perspective of Systems Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Ayse

    2009-01-01

    The System Dynamics approach can be seen as a new way of understanding dynamical phenonema (natural, physical, biological, etc.) that occur in our daily lives taking into consideration not only single pairs of cause-effect variables, but the functioning of the system as a whole. This approach also provides the students with a new understanding in…

  2. Population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a chain-forming diatom comprising about 30 species some of which are known to produce domoic acid (DA) that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). The current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia in the near shore waters of Dar es Salaam. Samples ...

  3. Understanding calcium dynamics experiments and theory

    CERN Document Server

    Malchow, Dieter

    2003-01-01

    Intracellular Calcium is an important messenger in living cells. Calcium dynamics display complex temporal and spatial structures created by the concentration patterns which are characteristic for a nonlinear system operating far from thermodynamic equilibrium. Written as a set of tutorial reviews on both experimental facts and theoretical modelling, this volume is intended as an introduction and modern reference in the field for graduate students and researchers in biophysics, biochemistry and applied mathematics.

  4. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  5. Mission Driven Scene Understanding: Dynamic Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    WindowsSdkDir%VisualStudioInteg ration \\Tools\\Bin;%PATH% set INCLUDE=%VCINSTALLDIR%Include;%WindowsSdkDir%VisualStudioInte gration\\Common\\Inc;%INCLUDE...Hung HSW. From visual saliency to video behaviour understanding [doctoral dissertation]. [London (UK)]: Queen Mary, University of London; 2007. 10

  6. Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M; Wang, Long

    2014-05-06

    On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics.

  7. A Scientific Understanding of Keystroke Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    of Procedia — Social and Behavioral Sciences . Elsevier, 2011. S. Douhou and J. R. Magnus. The reliability of user authentication through keystroke...manifestations of people’s behavior — keystroke timings especially so. As such, looking to other sciences for solutions to the problem of understanding...excitement and enthusiasm over being studied. The discovery spurred changes in the research methods of behavioral science (Shadish et al., 2002

  8. Understanding Arsenic Dynamics in Agronomic Systems to ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This review is on arsenic in agronomic systems, and covers processes that influence the entry of arsenic into the human food supply. The scope is from sources of arsenic (natural and anthropogenic) in soils, biogeochemical and rhizosphere processes that control arsenic speciation and availability, through to mechanisms of uptake by crop plants and potential mitigation strategies. This review makes a case for taking steps to prevent or limit crop uptake of arsenic, wherever possible, and to work toward a long-term solution to the presence of arsenic in agronomic systems. The past two decades have seen important advances in our understanding of how biogeochemical and physiological processes influence human exposure to soil arsenic, and thus must now prompt an informed reconsideration and unification of regulations to protect the quality of agricultural and residential soils. Consumption of staple foods such as rice, beverages such as apple juice, or vegetables grown in historically arsenic-contaminated soils is now recognized as a tangible route of arsenic exposure that, in many cases, is more significant than exposure from drinking water. Understanding the sources of arsenic to crop plants and the factors that influence them is key to reducing exposure now and preventing exposure in future. In addition to the abundant natural sources of arsenic, there are a large number of industrial and agricultural sources of arsenic to the soil; from mining wastes, coal fly

  9. Nonequilibrium population dynamics of phenotype conversion of cancer cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Xu Zhou

    Full Text Available Tumorigenesis is a dynamic biological process that involves distinct cancer cell subpopulations proliferating at different rates and interconverting between them. In this paper we proposed a mathematical framework of population dynamics that considers both distinctive growth rates and intercellular transitions between cancer cell populations. Our mathematical framework showed that both growth and transition influence the ratio of cancer cell subpopulations but the latter is more significant. We derived the condition that different cancer cell types can maintain distinctive subpopulations and we also explain why there always exists a stable fixed ratio after cell sorting based on putative surface markers. The cell fraction ratio can be shifted by changing either the growth rates of the subpopulations (Darwinism selection or by environment-instructed transitions (Lamarckism induction. This insight can help us to understand the dynamics of the heterogeneity of cancer cells and lead us to new strategies to overcome cancer drug resistance.

  10. An Empirical Study of AI Population Dynamics with Million-agent Reinforcement Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Yaodong; Yu, Lantao; Bai, Yiwei; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Weinan; Wen, Ying; Yu, Yong

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we conduct an empirical study on discovering the ordered collective dynamics obtained by a population of artificial intelligence (AI) agents. Our intention is to put AI agents into a simulated natural context, and then to understand their induced dynamics at the population level. In particular, we aim to verify if the principles developed in the real world could also be used in understanding an artificially-created intelligent population. To achieve this, we simulate a large-sc...

  11. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey A Hostetler

    Full Text Available Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008 study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1 for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s included 1.0 (0.52-1.60. Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  12. Understanding Sleep Disorders in a College Student Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Dallas R.

    2003-01-01

    College students' sleep habits are changing dramatically, and related sleep problems are increasing. Reviews the current literature on sleep problems, focusing on the college student population. The unique challenges of college settings are discussed as they apply to understanding sleep problems, and suggestions are made for professionals who work…

  13. Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Jane M; Travis, Justin M J; Daunt, Francis; Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Dytham, Calvin

    2018-03-25

    Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life-history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco-evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within-individual and among-individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life-history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal-tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within-population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year-round residence, generating diverse forms of 'partial migration' spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year-round residence, and are commonplace in nature. Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio-temporal population dynamics, we define a 'partially migratory meta-population' system as a spatially structured set of locations that can

  14. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  15. Calculating evolutionary dynamics in structured populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles G Nathanson

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Evolution is shaping the world around us. At the core of every evolutionary process is a population of reproducing individuals. The outcome of an evolutionary process depends on population structure. Here we provide a general formula for calculating evolutionary dynamics in a wide class of structured populations. This class includes the recently introduced "games in phenotype space" and "evolutionary set theory." There can be local interactions for determining the relative fitness of individuals, but we require global updating, which means all individuals compete uniformly for reproduction. We study the competition of two strategies in the context of an evolutionary game and determine which strategy is favored in the limit of weak selection. We derive an intuitive formula for the structure coefficient, sigma, and provide a method for efficient numerical calculation.

  16. Understanding Crystal Populations; Looking Towards 3D Quantitative Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerram, D. A.; Morgan, D. J.

    2010-12-01

    In order to understand volcanic systems, the potential record held within crystal populations needs to be revealed. It is becoming increasingly clear, however, that the crystal populations that arrive at the surface in volcanic eruptions are commonly mixtures of crystals, which may be representative of simple crystallization, recycling of crystals and incorporation of alien crystals. If we can quantify the true 3D population within a sample then we will be able to separate crystals with different histories and begin to interrogate the true and complex plumbing within the volcanic system. Modeling crystal populations is one area where we can investigate the best methodologies to use when dealing with sections through 3D populations. By producing known 3D shapes and sizes with virtual textures and looking at the statistics of shape and size when such populations are sectioned, we are able to gain confidence about what our 2D information is telling us about the population. We can also use this approach to test the size of population we need to analyze. 3D imaging through serial sectioning or x-ray CT, provides a complete 3D quantification of a rocks texture. Individual phases can be identified and in principle the true 3D statistics of the population can be interrogated. In practice we need to develop strategies (as with 2D-3D transformations), that enable a true characterization of the 3D data, and an understanding of the errors and pitfalls that exist. Ultimately, the reproduction of true 3D textures and the wealth of information they hold, is now within our reach.

  17. Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pananos, A Demetri; Bury, Thomas M; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P; Nyhan, Brendan; Salathé, Marcel; Bauch, Chris T

    2017-12-26

    Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  18. Statistical dynamics of regional populations and economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Hao, Rui; Wang, Peng

    Quantitative analysis of human behavior and social development is becoming a hot spot of some interdisciplinary studies. A statistical analysis on the population and GDP of 150 cities in China from 1990 to 2013 is conducted. The result indicates the cumulative probability distribution of the populations and that of the GDPs obeying the shifted power law, respectively. In order to understand these characteristics, a generalized Langevin equation describing variation of population is proposed, which is based on the correlations between population and GDP as well as the random fluctuations of the related factors. The equation is transformed into the Fokker-Plank equation to express the evolution of population distribution. The general solution demonstrates a transition of the distribution from the normal Gaussian distribution to a shifted power law, which suggests a critical point of time at which the transition takes place. The shifted power law distribution in the supercritical situation is qualitatively in accordance with the practical result. The distribution of the GDPs is derived from the well-known Cobb-Douglas production function. The result presents a change, in supercritical situation, from a shifted power law to the Gaussian distribution. This is a surprising result-the regional GDP distribution of our world will be the Gaussian distribution one day in the future. The discussions based on the changing trend of economic growth suggest it will be true. Therefore, these theoretical attempts may draw a historical picture of our society in the aspects of population and economy.

  19. Understanding Service-Oriented Systems Using Dynamic Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Espinha, T.; Zaidman, A.; Gross, H.G.

    2011-01-01

    When trying to understand a system that is based on the principles of Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA), it is typically not enough to understand the individual services in the architecture, but also the interactions between the services. In this paper, we present a technique based on dynamic

  20. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

    2010-07-27

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

  1. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  2. Noise-induced effects in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spagnolo, Bernardo; Cirone, Markus; La Barbera, Antonino; de Pasquale, Ferdinando

    2002-03-01

    We investigate the role of noise in the nonlinear relaxation of two ecosystems described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of multiplicative noise. Specifically we study two cases: (i) an ecosystem with two interacting species in the presence of periodic driving; (ii) an ecosystem with a great number of interacting species with random interaction matrix. We analyse the interplay between noise and periodic modulation for case (i) and the role of the noise in the transient dynamics of the ecosystem in the presence of an absorbing barrier in case (ii). We find that the presence of noise is responsible for the generation of temporal oscillations and for the appearance of spatial patterns in the first case. In the other case we obtain the asymptotic behaviour of the time average of the ith population and discuss the effect of the noise on the probability distributions of the population and of the local field.

  3. A Spatial Framework for Understanding Population Structure and Admixture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradburd, Gideon S; Ralph, Peter L; Coop, Graham M

    2016-01-01

    Geographic patterns of genetic variation within modern populations, produced by complex histories of migration, can be difficult to infer and visually summarize. A general consequence of geographically limited dispersal is that samples from nearby locations tend to be more closely related than samples from distant locations, and so genetic covariance often recapitulates geographic proximity. We use genome-wide polymorphism data to build "geogenetic maps," which, when applied to stationary populations, produces a map of the geographic positions of the populations, but with distances distorted to reflect historical rates of gene flow. In the underlying model, allele frequency covariance is a decreasing function of geogenetic distance, and nonlocal gene flow such as admixture can be identified as anomalously strong covariance over long distances. This admixture is explicitly co-estimated and depicted as arrows, from the source of admixture to the recipient, on the geogenetic map. We demonstrate the utility of this method on a circum-Tibetan sampling of the greenish warbler (Phylloscopus trochiloides), in which we find evidence for gene flow between the adjacent, terminal populations of the ring species. We also analyze a global sampling of human populations, for which we largely recover the geography of the sampling, with support for significant histories of admixture in many samples. This new tool for understanding and visualizing patterns of population structure is implemented in a Bayesian framework in the program SpaceMix.

  4. Population Dynamics and Cost-Benefit Analysis. An Attempt to Relate Population Dynamics via Lifetime Reproductive Success to Short-Term Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tinbergen, J.M.; Balen, J.H. van; Drent, P.J.; Cavé, A.J.; Mertens, J.A.L.; Boer-Hazewinkel, J. den

    1987-01-01

    1. The aim of this article is to explore whether cost-benefit analysis of behaviour may help to understand the population dynamics of a species. The Great Tit is taken as an example. 2. The lifetime reproductive success in different populations of Great Tits amounts from 0.7 (Hoge Veluwe, Wytham) to

  5. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  6. [Population dynamics and development in the Caribbean].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boland, B

    1995-12-01

    The impact is examined of socioeconomic factors on Caribbean population dynamics. This work begins by describing the socioeconomic context of the late 1980s and early 1990s, under the influence of the economic changes and crises of the 1980s. The small size, openness, dependency, and lack of diversification of the Caribbean economies have made them vulnerable to external pressures. The Bahamas and Belize had economic growth rates exceeding 5% annually during 1981-90, but most of the countries had low or negative growth. Unemployment, poverty, the structural adjustment measures adopted in the mid-1980s, and declines in social spending exacerbated general economic conditions. In broad terms, the population situation of the Caribbean is marked by diversity of sizes and growth rates. A few countries oriented toward services and tourism had demographic growth rates exceeding 3%, while at least 7 had almost no growth or negative growth. Population growth rates reflected different combinations of natural increase and migration. Crude death rates ranged from around 5/1000 to 11/1000, except in Haiti, and all countries of the region except Haiti had life expectancies of 70 years or higher. Despite fertility decline, the average crude birth rate was still relatively high at 26/1000, and the rate of natural increase was 1.8% annually for the region. Nearly half of the regional population was under 15 or over 65 years old. The body of this work provides greater detail on mortality patterns, variations by sex, infant mortality, causes of death, and implications for policy. The discussion of fertility includes general patterns and trends, age specific fertility rates, contraceptive prevalence, levels of adolescent fertility and age factors in adolescent sexual behavior, characteristics of adolescent unions, contraceptive usage, health and social consequences of adolescent childbearing, and the search for solutions. The final section describes the magnitude and causes of

  7. Understanding the dynamics of parent involvement in schooling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Erna Kinsey

    A qualitative study was undertaken to understand the realities and dynamics facing parents when attempting to be ... programmatic efforts for promoting children's adjustment and com- ... then conducted with six parents of two community-based support .... included in important issues regarding the education of their children.

  8. Learning and Understanding System Stability Using Illustrative Dynamic Texture Examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huaping; Xiao, Wei; Zhao, Hongyan; Sun, Fuchun

    2014-01-01

    System stability is a basic concept in courses on dynamic system analysis and control for undergraduate students with computer science backgrounds. Typically, this was taught using a simple simulation example of an inverted pendulum. Unfortunately, many difficult issues arise in the learning and understanding of the concepts of stability,…

  9. Understanding Learner Agency as a Complex Dynamic System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    This paper attempts to contribute to a fuller understanding of the nature of language learner agency by considering it as a complex dynamic system. The purpose of the study was to explore detailed situated data to examine to what extent it is feasible to view learner agency through the lens of complexity theory. Data were generated through a…

  10. Understanding conflict’s dynamics in participatory natural resources management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Idrissou, L.; Aarts, M.N.C.; Leeuwis, C.; Paassen, van A.

    2018-01-01

    This paper investigated conflicts in participatory protected areas management in Benin to better understand their dynamics. This review paper is based on four articles written from three case-studies of conflicts that emerged and evolved in participatory protected areas management in Benin and a

  11. Homogenization techniques for population dynamics in strongly heterogeneous landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yurk, Brian P; Cobbold, Christina A

    2018-12-01

    An important problem in spatial ecology is to understand how population-scale patterns emerge from individual-level birth, death, and movement processes. These processes, which depend on local landscape characteristics, vary spatially and may exhibit sharp transitions through behavioural responses to habitat edges, leading to discontinuous population densities. Such systems can be modelled using reaction-diffusion equations with interface conditions that capture local behaviour at patch boundaries. In this work we develop a novel homogenization technique to approximate the large-scale dynamics of the system. We illustrate our approach, which also generalizes to multiple species, with an example of logistic growth within a periodic environment. We find that population persistence and the large-scale population carrying capacity is influenced by patch residence times that depend on patch preference, as well as movement rates in adjacent patches. The forms of the homogenized coefficients yield key theoretical insights into how large-scale dynamics arise from the small-scale features.

  12. Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

    2017-02-01

    In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

  13. Allee effects on population dynamics in continuous (overlapping) case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.; Celik, C.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the stability analysis of equilibrium points of a continuous population dynamics with delay under the Allee effect which occurs at low population density. The mathematical results and numerical simulations show the stabilizing role of the Allee effects on the stability of the equilibrium point of this population dynamics.

  14. Population turnover and churn: enhancing understanding of internal migration in Britain through measures of stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennett, Adam; Stillwell, John

    2008-01-01

    Net migration measures take account of the direction of migration flows, but our understanding of migration can be extended using population turnover and churn as measures of population stability. Turnover is a measure of the intensity of migration into and out of a district, whereas churn incorporates these flows and also includes the flows that take place within each district. Using districts of Britain and their type-based groupings, the highest levels of turnover and churn are found in London and some of the more dynamic urban areas, whereas the lowest levels are found in rural and previously industrial areas. Age has a significant effect on these measures with the population in their late teens and early twenties being the least stable and older populations being more stable.

  15. Molecular Approaches to Understanding C & N Dynamics in MArine Sediments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arturo Massol; James Tiedje; Jizhong Zhou; Allan Devol

    2007-05-16

    Continental margin sediments constitute only about 10% of the total sediment surface area in the world’s oceans, nevertheless they are the dominant sites of nitrogen (N) cycling. Recent studies suggest that the oceanic nitrogen budget is unbalanced, primarily due to a higher nitrogen removal rate in contrast to the fixation rate, and it has been suggested that denitrification activity contributes significantly to this imbalance. Although denitrification in marine environments has been studied intensively at the process level, little is known about the species abundance, composition, distribution, and functional differences of the denitrifying population. Understanding the diversity of microbial populations in marine environments, their responses to various environmental factors such as NO3-, and how this impact the rate of denitrification is critical to predict global N dynamics. Environmental Microbiology has the prompt to study the influence of each microbial population on a biogeochemical process within a given ecosystem. Culture-dependent and –independent techniques using nucleic acid probes can access the identity and activity of cultured and uncultured microorganisms. Nucleic acid probes can target distintict genes which set phylogenetic relationships, such as rDNA 16S, DNA gyrase (gyrB) and RNA polymerase sigma 70 factor (rpoD). In the other hand, the genetic capabilities and their expression could be tracked using probes that target several functional genes, such as nirS, nirK, nosZ, and nifH, which are genes involved in denitrification. Selective detection of cells actively expressing functional genes within a community using In Situ Reverse Transcription-PCR (ISRT-PCR) could become a powerful culture-independent technique in microbial ecology. Here we describe an approach to study the expression of nirS genes in denitrifying bacteria. Pure cultures of Pseudomonas stutzeri and Paracoccus denitrificans, as well as co-cultures with non

  16. Understanding dynamics using sensitivity analysis: caveat and solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Parametric sensitivity analysis (PSA) has become one of the most commonly used tools in computational systems biology, in which the sensitivity coefficients are used to study the parametric dependence of biological models. As many of these models describe dynamical behaviour of biological systems, the PSA has subsequently been used to elucidate important cellular processes that regulate this dynamics. However, in this paper, we show that the PSA coefficients are not suitable in inferring the mechanisms by which dynamical behaviour arises and in fact it can even lead to incorrect conclusions. Results A careful interpretation of parametric perturbations used in the PSA is presented here to explain the issue of using this analysis in inferring dynamics. In short, the PSA coefficients quantify the integrated change in the system behaviour due to persistent parametric perturbations, and thus the dynamical information of when a parameter perturbation matters is lost. To get around this issue, we present a new sensitivity analysis based on impulse perturbations on system parameters, which is named impulse parametric sensitivity analysis (iPSA). The inability of PSA and the efficacy of iPSA in revealing mechanistic information of a dynamical system are illustrated using two examples involving switch activation. Conclusions The interpretation of the PSA coefficients of dynamical systems should take into account the persistent nature of parametric perturbations involved in the derivation of this analysis. The application of PSA to identify the controlling mechanism of dynamical behaviour can be misleading. By using impulse perturbations, introduced at different times, the iPSA provides the necessary information to understand how dynamics is achieved, i.e. which parameters are essential and when they become important. PMID:21406095

  17. Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2018-01-01

    In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

  18. Environmental influence on population dynamics of the bivalve Anomalocardia brasiliana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corte, Guilherme Nascimento; Coleman, Ross A.; Amaral, A. Cecília Z.

    2017-03-01

    Understanding how species respond to the environment in terms of population attributes (e.g. abundance, growth, mortality, fecundity, and productivity) is essential to protect ecologically and economically important species. Nevertheless, responses of macrobenthic populations to environmental features are overlooked due to the need of consecutive samplings and time-consuming measurements. We examined the population dynamics of the filter-feeding bivalve Anomalocardia brasiliana on a tidal flat over the course of one year to investigate the hypothesis that, as accepted for macrobenthic communities, populations inhabiting environments with low hydrodynamic conditions such as tidal flat should have higher attributes than populations inhabiting more energetic habitats (i.e. areas more influenced by wave energy such as reflective and intermediate beaches). This would be expected because the harsh conditions of more energetic habitats force organisms to divert more energy towards maintenance, resulting in lower population attributes. We found that A. brasiliana showed moderate growth and secondary production at the study area. Moreover the recruitment period was restricted to a few months. A comparison with previous studies showed that, contrary to expected, A. brasiliana populations from areas with low hydrodynamic conditions have lower abundance, growth, recruitment and turnover rate. It is likely that morphodynamic characteristics recorded in these environments, such as larger periods of air exposure and lower water circulation, may affect food conditions for filter-feeding species and increase competition. In addition, these characteristics may negatively affect macrobenthic species by enhancing eutrophication processes and anoxia. Overall, our results suggest that models accepted and applied at the macrobenthic community level might not be directly extended to A. brasiliana populations.

  19. Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

    KAUST Repository

    Mabrok, Mohamed; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population

  20. DYNAMICS OF Cercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    DYNAMICS OFCercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED AGRO- ..... Population differentiation of Cercospora zeina in three districts of Uganda based on analysis of molecular variance ..... interactions: The example of the Erysiphe.

  1. Effects of demographic structure on key properties of stochastic density-independent population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar

    2012-12-01

    The development of stochastic demography has largely been based on age structured populations, although other types of demographic structure, especially permanent and dynamic heterogeneity, are likely common in natural populations. The combination of stochasticity and demographic structure is a challenge for analyses of population dynamics and extinction risk, because the population structure will fluctuate around the stable structure and the population size shows transient fluctuations. However, by using a diffusion approximation for the total reproductive value, density-independent dynamics of structured populations can be described with only three population parameters: the expected population growth rate, the environmental variance and the demographic variance. These parameters depend on population structure via the state-specific vital rates and transition rates. Once they are found, the diffusion approximation represents a substantial reduction in model complexity. Here, we review and compare the key population parameters across a wide range of demographic structure, from the case of no structure to the most general case of dynamic heterogeneity, and for both discrete and continuous types. We focus on the demographic variance, but also show how environmental stochasticity can be included. This study brings together results from recent models, each considering a specific type of population structure, and places them in a general framework for structured populations. Comparison across different types of demographic structure reveals that the reproductive value is an essential concept for understanding how population structure affects stochastic dynamics and extinction risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Dynamics of a physiologically structured population in a time-varying environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heilmann, Irene Louise Torpe; Starke, Jens; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2016-01-01

    Physiologically structured population models have become a valuable tool to model the dynamics of populations. In a stationary environment such models can exhibit equilibrium solutions as well as periodic solutions. However, for many organisms the environment is not stationary, but varies more...... or less regularly. In order to understand the interaction between an external environmental forcing and the internal dynamics in a population, we examine the response of a physiologically structured population model to a periodic variation in the food resource. We explore the addition of forcing in two...... cases: (A) where the population dynamics is in equilibrium in a stationary environment, and (B) where the population dynamics exhibits a periodic solution in a stationary environment. When forcing is applied in case A, the solutions are mainly periodic. In case B the forcing signal interacts...

  3. Toward understanding dynamic annealing processes in irradiated ceramics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Myers, Michael Thomas [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2013-05-01

    High energy particle irradiation inevitably generates defects in solids. The ballistic formation and thermalization of the defect creation process occur rapidly, and are believed to be reasonably well understood. However, knowledge of the evolution of defects after damage cascade thermalization, referred to as dynamic annealing, is quite limited. Unraveling the mechanisms associated with dynamic annealing is crucial since such processes play an important role in the formation of stable postirradiation disorder in ion-beam-processing of semiconductors, and determines the “radiation tolerance” of many nuclear materials. The purpose of this dissertation is to further our understanding of the processes involved in dynamic annealing. In order to achieve this, two main tasks are undertaken.

  4. Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Matthew; Minobe, Shoshiro; Barreiro, Marcelo; Bordoni, Simona; Kaspi, Yohai; Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira; Keenlyside, Noel; Manzini, Elisa; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Sutton, Rowan; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zolina, Olga

    2018-01-01

    Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.

  5. Modeling population dynamics of mitochondria in mammalian cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kornick, Kellianne; Das, Moumita

    Mitochondria are organelles located inside eukaryotic cells and are essential for several key cellular processes such as energy (ATP) production, cell signaling, differentiation, and apoptosis. All organisms are believed to have low levels of variation in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and alterations in mtDNA are connected to a range of human health conditions, including epilepsy, heart failure, Parkinsons disease, diabetes, and multiple sclerosis. Therefore, understanding how changes in mtDNA accumulate over time and are correlated to changes in mitochondrial function and cell properties can have a profound impact on our understanding of cell physiology and the origins of some diseases. Motivated by this, we develop and study a mathematical model to determine which cellular parameters have the largest impact on mtDNA population dynamics. The model consists of coupled ODEs to describe subpopulations of healthy and dysfunctional mitochondria subject to mitochondrial fission, fusion, autophagy, and mutation. We study the time evolution and stability of each sub-population under specific selection biases and pressures by tuning specific terms in our model. Our results may provide insights into how sub-populations of mitochondria survive and evolve under different selection pressures. This work was supported by a Grant from the Moore Foundation.

  6. Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

    2018-02-01

    Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex

  7. Understanding the population genetics of Plasmodium vivax is essential for malaria control and elimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnott Alicia

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Traditionally, infection with Plasmodium vivax was thought to be benign and self-limiting, however, recent evidence has demonstrated that infection with P. vivax can also result in severe illness and death. Research into P. vivax has been relatively neglected and much remains unknown regarding the biology, pathogenesis and epidemiology of this parasite. One of the fundamental factors governing transmission and immunity is parasite diversity. An understanding of parasite population genetic structure is necessary to understand the epidemiology, diversity, distribution and dynamics of natural P. vivax populations. In addition, studying the population structure of genes under immune selection also enables investigation of the dynamic interplay between transmission and immunity, which is crucial for vaccine development. A lack of knowledge regarding the transmission and spread of P. vivax has been particularly highlighted in areas where malaria control and elimination programmes have made progress in reducing the burden of Plasmodium falciparum, yet P. vivax remains as a substantial obstacle. With malaria elimination back on the global agenda, mapping of global and local P. vivax population structure is essential prior to establishing goals for elimination and the roll-out of interventions. A detailed knowledge of the spatial distribution, transmission and clinical burden of P. vivax is required to act as a benchmark against which control targets can be set and measured. This paper presents an overview of what is known and what is yet to be fully understood regarding P. vivax population genetics, as well as the importance and application of P. vivax population genetics studies.

  8. Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

    2013-10-01

    When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  9. Application of System Dynamics Methodology in Population Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    August Turina

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this work is to present the application of system dynamics and system thinking, as well as the advantages and possible defects of this analytic approach, in order to improve the analysis of complex systems such as population and, thereby, to monitor more effectively the underlying causes of migrations. This methodology has long been present in interdisciplinary scientific circles, but its scientific contribution has not been sufficiently applied in analysis practice in Croatia. Namely, the major part of system analysis is focused on detailed complexity rather than on dynamic complexity. Generally, the science of complexity deals with emergence, innovation, learning and adaptation. Complexity is viewed according to the number of system components, or through a number of combinations that must be continually analyzed in order to understand and consequently provide adequate decisions. Simulations containing thousands of variables and complex arrays of details distract overall attention from the basic cause patterns and key inter-relations emerging and prevailing within an analyzed population. Systems thinking offers a holistic and integral perspective for observation of the world.

  10. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  11. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  12. Population dynamics of Aphis gossypii Glover and in sole and intercropping systems of cotton and cowpea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Francisco S; Godoy, Wesley A C; Ramalho, Francisco S; Garcia, Adriano G; Santos, Bárbara D B; Malaquias, José B

    2018-01-01

    Population dynamics of aphids have been studied in sole and intercropping systems. These studies have required the use of more precise analytical tools in order to better understand patterns in quantitative data. Mathematical models are among the most important tools to explain the dynamics of insect populations. This study investigated the population dynamics of aphids Aphis gossypii and Aphis craccivora over time, using mathematical models composed of a set of differential equations as a helpful analytical tool to understand the population dynamics of aphids in arrangements of cotton and cowpea. The treatments were sole cotton, sole cowpea, and three arrangements of cotton intercropped with cowpea (t1, t2 and t3). The plants were infested with two aphid species and were evaluated at 7, 14, 28, 35, 42, and 49 days after the infestations. Mathematical models were used to fit the population dynamics of two aphid species. There were good fits for aphid dynamics by mathematical model over time. The highest population peak of both species A. gossypii and A. craccivora was found in the sole crops, and the lowest population peak was found in crop system t2. These results are important for integrated management programs of aphids in cotton and cowpea.

  13. Integrating the social sciences to understand human-water dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, G.; Kuil, L., Jr.

    2017-12-01

    Many interesting and exciting socio-hydrological models have been developed in recent years. Such models often aim to capture the dynamic interplay between people and water for a variety of hydrological settings. As such, peoples' behaviours and decisions are brought into the models as drivers of and/or respondents to the hydrological system. To develop and run such models over a sufficiently long time duration to observe how the water-human system evolves the human component is often simplified according to one or two key behaviours, characteristics or decisions (e.g. a decision to move away from a drought or flood area; a decision to pump groundwater, or a decision to plant a less water demanding crop). To simplify the social component, socio-hydrological modellers often pull knowledge and understanding from existing social science theories. This requires them to negotiate complex territory, where social theories may be underdeveloped, contested, dynamically evolving, or case specific and difficult to generalise or upscale. A key question is therefore, how can this process be supported so that the resulting socio-hydrological models adequately describe the system and lead to meaningful understanding of how and why it behaves as it does? Collaborative interdisciplinary research teams that bring together social and natural scientists are likely to be critical. Joint development of the model framework requires specific attention to clarification to expose all underlying assumptions, constructive discussion and negotiation to reach agreement on the modelled system and its boundaries. Mutual benefits to social scientists can be highlighted, i.e. socio-hydrological work can provide insights for further exploring and testing social theories. Collaborative work will also help ensure underlying social theory is made explicit, and may identify ways to include and compare multiple theories. As socio-hydrology progresses towards supporting policy development, approaches that

  14. Understanding the Dynamics of EngagingIinteraction in Public Spaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalsgaard, Peter; Dindler, Christian; Halskov, Kim

    We present an analysis of three interactive installations in public spaces, in terms of their support of engagement as an evolving process. In particular, we focus on how engagement unfolds as a dynamic process that may be understood in terms of evolving relations between cultural, physical......, content-related, and social elements of interactive environments. These elements are explored through the literature on engagement with interaction design, and it is argued that, although valuable contributions have been made towards understanding engagement with interactive environments, the ways...

  15. Population dynamics model for plasmid bearing and plasmid lacking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Streptokinase production in bioreactor is well associated to cell population dynamics. It is an established fact that two types of cell populations are found to emerge from the initial pool of recombinant cell population. This phenomenon leads to an undesired loss in yield of the product. Primary metabolites, like acetic acid etc ...

  16. Understanding dynamic friction through spontaneously evolving laboratory earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubino, V; Rosakis, A J; Lapusta, N

    2017-06-29

    Friction plays a key role in how ruptures unzip faults in the Earth's crust and release waves that cause destructive shaking. Yet dynamic friction evolution is one of the biggest uncertainties in earthquake science. Here we report on novel measurements of evolving local friction during spontaneously developing mini-earthquakes in the laboratory, enabled by our ultrahigh speed full-field imaging technique. The technique captures the evolution of displacements, velocities and stresses of dynamic ruptures, whose rupture speed range from sub-Rayleigh to supershear. The observed friction has complex evolution, featuring initial velocity strengthening followed by substantial velocity weakening. Our measurements are consistent with rate-and-state friction formulations supplemented with flash heating but not with widely used slip-weakening friction laws. This study develops a new approach for measuring local evolution of dynamic friction and has important implications for understanding earthquake hazard since laws governing frictional resistance of faults are vital ingredients in physically-based predictive models of the earthquake source.

  17. Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackenzie, Brian R; Meier, H E Markus; Lindegren, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics...... and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated...... to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass...

  18. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S., E-mail: ajinkyagavane@gmail.com; Nigam, Rahul, E-mail: rahul.nigam@hyderabad.bits-pilani.ac.in [BITS Pilani Hyderabad Campus, Shameerpet, Hyd - 500078 (India)

    2016-06-02

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  19. Analysis of Population Diversity of Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingjian Ni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In evolutionary algorithm, population diversity is an important factor for solving performance. In this paper, combined with some population diversity analysis methods in other evolutionary algorithms, three indicators are introduced to be measures of population diversity in PSO algorithms, which are standard deviation of population fitness values, population entropy, and Manhattan norm of standard deviation in population positions. The three measures are used to analyze the population diversity in a relatively new PSO variant—Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization (DPPSO. The results show that the three measure methods can fully reflect the evolution of population diversity in DPPSO algorithms from different angles, and we also discuss the impact of population diversity on the DPPSO variants. The relevant conclusions of the population diversity on DPPSO can be used to analyze, design, and improve the DPPSO algorithms, thus improving optimization performance, which could also be beneficial to understand the working mechanism of DPPSO theoretically.

  20. Toward a Better Understanding of Population Genetics: Pop!World--A Virtual, Inquiry-Based Tool for Teaching Population Genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulin, Jessica; Ramamurthy, Bina; Dittmar, Katharina

    2013-01-01

    Population genetics is fundamental to understanding evolutionary theory, and is taught in most introductory biology/evolution courses. Many students are unaware that understanding this topic requires pertinent knowledge

  1. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  2. Seasonal population dynamics and energy consumption by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dynamiques saisonnières de population et consommation énergétique par les oiseaux aquatiques d'un petit estuaire tempéré De simples mesures des dynamiques de population et de consommation énergétique peuvent fournir des informations de base sur le rôle des consommateurs au sein des réseaux trophiques, ...

  3. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B., E-mail: medvinsky@iteb.ru [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Rusakov, Alexey V. [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation)

    2011-06-15

    Highlights: > We model community dynamics in stateless societies. > Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. > Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. > Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  4. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B.; Rusakov, Alexey V.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We model community dynamics in stateless societies. → Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. → Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. → Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  5. Application of network methods for understanding evolutionary dynamics in discrete habitats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Gili; Fefferman, Nina H

    2017-06-01

    In populations occupying discrete habitat patches, gene flow between habitat patches may form an intricate population structure. In such structures, the evolutionary dynamics resulting from interaction of gene-flow patterns with other evolutionary forces may be exceedingly complex. Several models describing gene flow between discrete habitat patches have been presented in the population-genetics literature; however, these models have usually addressed relatively simple settings of habitable patches and have stopped short of providing general methodologies for addressing nontrivial gene-flow patterns. In the last decades, network theory - a branch of discrete mathematics concerned with complex interactions between discrete elements - has been applied to address several problems in population genetics by modelling gene flow between habitat patches using networks. Here, we present the idea and concepts of modelling complex gene flows in discrete habitats using networks. Our goal is to raise awareness to existing network theory applications in molecular ecology studies, as well as to outline the current and potential contribution of network methods to the understanding of evolutionary dynamics in discrete habitats. We review the main branches of network theory that have been, or that we believe potentially could be, applied to population genetics and molecular ecology research. We address applications to theoretical modelling and to empirical population-genetic studies, and we highlight future directions for extending the integration of network science with molecular ecology. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Missing cycles: Effect of climate change on population dynamics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    population dynamics of the larch budmoth – an insect pest which causes massive defoliation of entire larch forests ... hypothesized that global warming has led to the collapse of the cycles ... When temperatures increase after winter, and the.

  7. A linear model of population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.

    2016-08-01

    The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).

  8. Understanding catchment dynamics through a Space-Society-Water trialectic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, Catherine; Jewitt, Graham; Risko, Susan; Hay, Ducan; Stuart-Hill, Sabine; Browne, Michelle

    2017-04-01

    Can healthy catchments be utilized to secure water for the benefit of society? This is a complex question as it requires an understanding of the connections and relations between biophysical, social, political, economic and governance dimensions over space and time in the catchment and must interrogate whether there is 'value' in investing in the catchment natural or ecological infrastructure (EI), how this should be done, where the most valuable EI is located, and whether an investment in EI will generate co-benefits socially, environmentally and economically. Here, we adopt a social ecological relations rather than systems approach to explore these interactions through development of a space-society-water trialectic. Trialectic thinking is challenging as it requires new epistemologies and it challenges conventional modes of thought. It is not ordered or fixed, but rather is constantly evolving, revealing the dynamic relations between the elements under exploration. The construction of knowledge, through detailed scientific research and social learning, which contributes to the understanding and achievement of sustainable water supply, water related resilient economic growth, greater social equity and justice in relation to water and the reduction of environmental risk is illustrated through research in the uMngeni Catchment, South Africa. Using four case studies as a basis, we construct the catchment level society-water-space trialectic as a way of connecting, assembling and comparing the understanding and knowledge that has been produced. The relations in the three elements of the trialectic are constructed through identifying, understanding and analysing the actors, discourses, knowledge, biophysical materialities, issues and spatial connections in the case studies. Together these relations, or multiple trajectories, are assembled to form the society-water-space trialectic, which illuminates the dominant relations in the catchment and hence reveal the leverage

  9. Dynamics of a structured neuron population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pakdaman, Khashayar; Salort, Delphine; Perthame, Benoît

    2010-01-01

    We study the dynamics of assemblies of interacting neurons. For large fully connected networks, the dynamics of the system can be described by a partial differential equation reminiscent of age-structure models used in mathematical ecology, where the 'age' of a neuron represents the time elapsed since its last discharge. The nonlinearity arises from the connectivity J of the network. We prove some mathematical properties of the model that are directly related to qualitative properties. On the one hand, we prove that it is well-posed and that it admits stationary states which, depending upon the connectivity, can be unique or not. On the other hand, we study the long time behaviour of solutions; both for small and large J, we prove the relaxation to the steady state describing asynchronous firing of the neurons. In the middle range, numerical experiments show that periodic solutions appear expressing re-synchronization of the network and asynchronous firing

  10. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE WANDERING ALBATROSS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changes in several demographic parameters that appear to be influenced by both environmental and anthropogenic effects are described. From 1994–2001, the proportion of first-time breeders in the population was positively correlated with the maximum ENSO (Niño 3) index, whereas from 1984–2000 the annual survival ...

  11. Understanding the HIV coreceptor switch from a dynamical perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamp Christel

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The entry of HIV into its target cells is facilitated by the prior binding to the cell surface molecule CD4 and a secondary coreceptor, mostly the chemokine receptors CCR5 or CXCR4. In early infection CCR5-using viruses (R5 viruses are mostly dominant while a receptor switch towards CXCR4 occurs in about 50% of the infected individuals (X4 viruses which is associated with a progression of the disease. There are many hypotheses regarding the underlying dynamics without yet a conclusive understanding. Results While it is difficult to isolate key factors in vivo we have developed a minimal in silico model based on the approaches of Nowak and May to investigate the conditions under which the receptor switch occurs. The model allows to investigate the evolution of viral strains within a probabilistic framework along the three stages of disease from primary and latent infection to the onset of AIDS with a a sudden increase in viral load which goes along with the impairment of the immune response. The model is specifically applied to investigate the evolution of the viral quasispecies in terms of R5 and X4 viruses which directly translates into the composition of viral load and consequently the question of the coreceptor switch. Conclusion The model can explain the coreceptor switch as a result of a dynamical change in the underlying environmental conditions in the host. The emergence of X4 strains does not necessarily result in the dominance of X4 viruses in viral load which is more likely to occur in the model after some time of chronic infection. A better understanding of the conditions leading to the coreceptor switch is especially of interest as CCR5 blockers have recently been licensed as drugs which suppress R5 viruses but do not seem to necessarily induce a coreceptor switch.

  12. Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

    KAUST Repository

    Mabrok, Mohamed

    2017-01-05

    Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population games, namely so-called “stable games”. In particular, it was shown that a combination of stable games and (an analogue of) passive evolutionary dynamics results in stable convergence to Nash equilibrium. This paper considers the converse question of necessary conditions for evolutionary dynamics to exhibit stable behaviors for all generalized stable games. Using methods from robust control analysis, we show that if an evolutionary dynamic does not satisfy a passivity property, then it is possible to construct a generalized stable game that results in instability. The results are illustrated on selected evolutionary dynamics with particular attention to replicator dynamics, which are also shown to be lossless, a special class of passive systems.

  13. Population dynamics of Vibrio fischeri during infection of Euprymna scolopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCann, Jessica; Stabb, Eric V; Millikan, Deborah S; Ruby, Edward G

    2003-10-01

    The luminous bacterium Vibrio fischeri colonizes a specialized light-emitting organ within its squid host, Euprymna scolopes. Newly hatched juvenile squid must acquire their symbiont from ambient seawater, where the bacteria are present at low concentrations. To understand the population dynamics of V. fischeri during colonization more fully, we used mini-Tn7 transposons to mark bacteria with antibiotic resistance so that the growth of their progeny could be monitored. When grown in culture, there was no detectable metabolic burden on V. fischeri cells carrying the transposon, which inserts in single copy in a specific intergenic region of the V. fischeri genome. Strains marked with mini-Tn7 also appeared to be equivalent to the wild type in their ability to infect and multiply within the host during coinoculation experiments. Studies of the early stages of colonization suggested that only a few bacteria became associated with symbiotic tissue when animals were exposed for a discrete period (3 h) to an inoculum of V. fischeri cells equivalent to natural population levels; nevertheless, all these hosts became infected. When three differentially marked strains of V. fischeri were coincubated with juvenile squid, the number of strains recovered from an individual symbiotic organ was directly dependent on the size of the inoculum. Further, these results indicated that, when exposed to low numbers of V. fischeri, the host may become colonized by only one or a few bacterial cells, suggesting that symbiotic infection is highly efficient.

  14. Complexity and simplification in understanding recruitment in benthic populations

    KAUST Repository

    Pineda, Jesú s; Reyns, Nathalie B.; Starczak, Victoria R.

    2008-01-01

    reduces the number of processes and makes the problem manageable. We discuss how simplifications and "broad-brush first-order approaches" may muddle our understanding of recruitment. Lack of empirical determination of the fundamental processes often

  15. Population dynamics and distribution of the coffee berry borer ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics and distribution of coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were studied on Coffea arabica L. in southwestern region of Ethiopia. Thirty coffee trees were sampled at weekly intervals from 2000 to 2001. Findings of this study showed that coffee berry borer population ...

  16. Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

    2006-01-01

    Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

  17. [The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samoĭlova, Iu A

    2013-01-01

    The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns.

  18. Dynamics of Population on the Verge of Extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Oborny, B.; Meszena, G.; Szabo, G.

    2005-01-01

    Theoretical considerations suggest that extinction in dispersal-limited populations is necessarily a threshold-like process that is analogous to a critical phase transition in physics. We use this analogy to find robust, common features in the dynamics of extinctions, and suggest early warning signals which may indicate that a population is endangered. As the critical threshold of extinction is approached, the population spontaneously fragments into discrete subpopulations and, consequently, ...

  19. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Anung Basuki

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  20. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  1. Dynamical community structure of populations evolving on genotype networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capitán, José A.; Aguirre, Jacobo; Manrubia, Susanna

    2015-01-01

    Neutral evolutionary dynamics of replicators occurs on large and heterogeneous networks of genotypes. These networks, formed by all genotypes that yield the same phenotype, have a complex architecture that conditions the molecular composition of populations and their movements on genome spaces. Here we consider as an example the case of populations evolving on RNA secondary structure neutral networks and study the community structure of the network revealed through dynamical properties of the population at equilibrium and during adaptive transients. We unveil a rich hierarchical community structure that, eventually, can be traced back to the non-trivial relationship between RNA secondary structure and sequence composition. We demonstrate that usual measures of modularity that only take into account the static, topological structure of networks, cannot identify the community structure disclosed by population dynamics

  2. Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

    2007-03-01

    The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

  3. Computer simulation of population dynamics inside the urban environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreev, A. S.; Inovenkov, I. N.; Echkina, E. Yu.; Nefedov, V. V.; Ponomarenko, L. S.; Tikhomirov, V. V.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper using a mathematical model of the so-called “space-dynamic” approach we investigate the problem of development and temporal dynamics of different urban population groups. For simplicity we consider an interaction of only two population groups inside a single urban area with axial symmetry. This problem can be described qualitatively by a system of two non-stationary nonlinear differential equations of the diffusion type with boundary conditions of the third type. The results of numerical simulations show that with a suitable choice of the diffusion coefficients and interaction functions between different population groups we can receive different scenarios of population dynamics: from complete displacement of one population group by another (originally more “aggressive”) to the “peaceful” situation of co-existence of them together.

  4. Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

    2014-03-01

    Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Strongly Deterministic Population Dynamics in Closed Microbial Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zak Frentz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Biological systems are influenced by random processes at all scales, including molecular, demographic, and behavioral fluctuations, as well as by their interactions with a fluctuating environment. We previously established microbial closed ecosystems (CES as model systems for studying the role of random events and the emergent statistical laws governing population dynamics. Here, we present long-term measurements of population dynamics using replicate digital holographic microscopes that maintain CES under precisely controlled external conditions while automatically measuring abundances of three microbial species via single-cell imaging. With this system, we measure spatiotemporal population dynamics in more than 60 replicate CES over periods of months. In contrast to previous studies, we observe strongly deterministic population dynamics in replicate systems. Furthermore, we show that previously discovered statistical structure in abundance fluctuations across replicate CES is driven by variation in external conditions, such as illumination. In particular, we confirm the existence of stable ecomodes governing the correlations in population abundances of three species. The observation of strongly deterministic dynamics, together with stable structure of correlations in response to external perturbations, points towards a possibility of simple macroscopic laws governing microbial systems despite numerous stochastic events present on microscopic levels.

  6. Understanding the dynamic performance of microchannel plates in pulsed mode

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ray Thomas; Ming Wu; Nathan Joseph; Craig Kruschwitz; Gregroy A. Rochau

    2007-01-01

    The dynamic performance of a microchannel plate (MCP) is highly dependent on the high-voltage waveforms that are applied to it. Impedance mismatches in MCP detectors can significantly vary the waveforms on the MCP compared to the input pulses. High-voltage pulse waveforms launched onto surface coatings on the MCPs have historically been difficult and expensive to measure. Over the past few years, we have developed and tested techniques utilizing probes to measure the voltage propagation on the surface of MCPs. Square and Gaussian pulses with widths ranging from 200 ps to 2 ns have been applied. We have investigated the effects of coating thickness, microstrip width, and openended versus terminated strips. These data provide a wealth of knowledge that is enabling a better understanding of images recorded with these devices. This presentation discusses a method for measuring voltage profiles on the surface of the MCP and presents Monte Carlo simulations of the optical gate profiles based on the measured waveforms. Excellent agreement in the optical gate profiles have been achieved between the simulations and the experimental measurements using a short-pulse ultraviolet laser

  7. Understanding void fraction in steady state and dynamic environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chexal, B.; Maulbetsch, J.; Harrison, J.; Petersen, C.; Jensen, P.; Horowitz, J.

    1997-01-01

    Understanding void fraction behavior in steady-state and dynamic environments is important to accurately predict the thermal-hydraulic behavior of two-phase or two-component systems. The Chexal-Lellouche (C-L) void fraction mode described herein covers the full range of pressures, flows, void fractions, and fluid types (steam-water, air-water, and refrigerants). A drift flux model formulation is used which covers the complete range of concurrent and countercurrent flows. The (1996) model revises the earlier C-L void fraction correlation, improves the capability of the model in countercurrent flow based on the incorporation of additional data, and improves the characteristics of the correlation that are important in transient programs. The model has been qualified with data from a number of steady state two-phase and two-component tests, and has been incorporated into the transient analysis code RELAP5 and RETRAN-3D and evaluated with a variety of transient and steady state tests. A 'plug-in' module for the void fraction correlation has been developed and implemented in RELAP5 and RETRAN-3D. The module is available as source code for inclusion into other thermal-hydraulic programs and can be used in any program that utilizes the same interface variables

  8. Understanding ENSO dynamics through the exploration of past climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phipps, Steven J; Brown, Jaclyn N

    2010-01-01

    The palaeoclimate record shows that significant changes in ENSO characteristics took place during the Holocene. Exploring these changes, using both data and models, provides a means of understanding ENSO dynamics. Previous modelling studies have suggested a mechanism whereby changes in the Earth's orbital geometry explain the strengthening of ENSO over the Holocene. Decreasing summer insolation over the Asian landmass resulted in a weakening of the Asian monsoon system. This led to a weakening of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific, creating conditions more favourable for El Nino development. To explore this hypothesised forcing mechanism, we use a climate system model to conduct a suite of simulations of the climate of the past 8,000 years. In the early Holocene, we find that the Asian summer monsoon system is intensified, resulting in an amplification of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific. The stronger trade winds represent a barrier to the eastward propagation of westerly wind bursts, therefore inhibiting the onset of El Nino events. The fundamental behaviour of ENSO remains unchanged, with the major change over the Holocene being the influence of the background state of the Pacific on the susceptibility of the ocean to the initiation of El Nino events.

  9. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  10. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low-or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  11. Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

    2013-01-01

    The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate

  12. feedback between population and evolutionary dynamics determines the fate of social microbial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sanchez

    Full Text Available The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50-100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators "spiral" to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the

  13. Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

    2018-01-01

    There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

  14. The Contribution of GGOS to Understanding Dynamic Earth Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Richard

    2017-04-01

    Geodesy is the science of the Earth's shape, size, gravity and rotation, including their evolution in time. Geodetic observations play a major role in the solid Earth sciences because they are fundamental for the understanding and modeling of Earth system processes. Changes in the Earth's shape, its gravitational field, and its rotation are caused by external forces acting on the Earth system and internal processes involving mass transfer and exchange of angular and linear momentum. Thus, variations in these geodetic quantities of the Earth reflect and constrain mechanical and thermo-dynamic processes in the Earth system. Mitigating the impact on human life and property of natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, debris flows, landslides, land subsidence, sea level change, tsunamis, floods, storm surges, hurricanes and extreme weather is an important scientific task to which geodetic observations make fundamental contributions. Geodetic observations can be used to monitor the pre-eruptive deformation of volcanoes and the pre-seismic deformation of earthquake fault zones, aiding in the issuance of volcanic eruption and earthquake warnings. They can also be used to rapidly estimate earthquake fault motion, aiding in the modeling of tsunami genesis and the issuance of tsunami warnings. Geodetic observations are also used in other areas of the Earth sciences, not just the solid Earth sciences. For example, geodesy contributes to atmospheric science by supporting both observation and prediction of the weather by geo-referencing meteorological observing data and by globally tracking change in stratospheric mass and lower tropospheric water vapor fields. Geodetic measurements of refraction profiles derived from satellite occultation data are routinely assimilated into numerical weather prediction models. Geodesy contributes to hydrologic studies by providing a unique global reference system for measurements of: sub-seasonal, seasonal and secular movements

  15. Understanding quantum measurement from the solution of dynamical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E. [Laboratoire de Physique Statistique et Systèmes Complexes, ISMANS, 44 Av. Bartholdi, 72000 Le Mans (France); Balian, Roger [Institut de Physique Théorique, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cedex (France); Nieuwenhuizen, Theo M., E-mail: T.M.Nieuwenhuizen@uva.nl [Center for Cosmology and Particle Physics, New York University, 4 Washington Place, New York, NY 10003 (United States)

    2013-04-15

    The quantum measurement problem, to wit, understanding why a unique outcome is obtained in each individual experiment, is currently tackled by solving models. After an introduction we review the many dynamical models proposed over the years for elucidating quantum measurements. The approaches range from standard quantum theory, relying for instance on quantum statistical mechanics or on decoherence, to quantum–classical methods, to consistent histories and to modifications of the theory. Next, a flexible and rather realistic quantum model is introduced, describing the measurement of the z-component of a spin through interaction with a magnetic memory simulated by a Curie–Weiss magnet, including N≫1 spins weakly coupled to a phonon bath. Initially prepared in a metastable paramagnetic state, it may transit to its up or down ferromagnetic state, triggered by its coupling with the tested spin, so that its magnetization acts as a pointer. A detailed solution of the dynamical equations is worked out, exhibiting several time scales. Conditions on the parameters of the model are found, which ensure that the process satisfies all the features of ideal measurements. Various imperfections of the measurement are discussed, as well as attempts of incompatible measurements. The first steps consist in the solution of the Hamiltonian dynamics for the spin-apparatus density matrix D{sup -hat} (t). Its off-diagonal blocks in a basis selected by the spin–pointer coupling, rapidly decay owing to the many degrees of freedom of the pointer. Recurrences are ruled out either by some randomness of that coupling, or by the interaction with the bath. On a longer time scale, the trend towards equilibrium of the magnet produces a final state D{sup -hat} (t{sub f}) that involves correlations between the system and the indications of the pointer, thus ensuring registration. Although D{sup -hat} (t{sub f}) has the form expected for ideal measurements, it only describes a large set of

  16. Intertidal population genetic dynamics at a microgeographic seascape scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zi-Min

    2013-06-01

    The intertidal community is among the most physically harsh niches on earth, with highly heterogeneous environmental and biological factors that impose strong habitat selection on population abundance, genetic connectivity and ecological adaptation of organisms in nature. However, most genetic studies to date have concentrated on the influence of basin-wide or regional marine environments (e.g. habitat discontinuities, oceanic currents and fronts, and geographic barriers) on spatiotemporal distribution and composition of intertidal invertebrates having planktonic stages or long-distance dispersal capability. Little is known about sessile marine organisms (e.g. seaweeds) in the context of topographic tidal gradients and reproductive traits at the microgeographic scale. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Krueger-Hadfield et al. () implemented an elaborate sampling strategy with red seaweed (Chondrus crispus) from a 90-m transect stand near Roscoff and comprehensively detected genome-scale genetic differentiation and biases in ploidy level. This study not only revealed that tidal height resulted in genetic differentiation between high- and low-shore stands and restricted the genetic exchange within the high-shore habitat, but also demonstrated that intergametophytic nonrandom fertilization in C. crispus can cause significant deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Such new genetic insights highlight the importance of microgeographic genetic dynamics and life history characteristics for better understanding the evolutionary processes of speciation and diversification of intertidal marine organisms. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. An age-structured population balance model for microbial dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duarte M.V.E.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an age-structured population balance model (ASPBM for a bioprocess in a continuous stirred-tank fermentor. It relates the macroscopic properties and dynamic behavior of biomass to the operational parameters and microscopic properties of cells. Population dynamics is governed by two time- and age-dependent density functions for living and dead cells, accounting for the influence of substrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations on cell division, aging and death processes. The ASPBM described biomass and substrate oscillations in aerobic continuous cultures as experimentally observed. It is noteworthy that a small data set consisting of nonsegregated measurements was sufficient to adjust a complex segregated mathematical model.

  18. Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2014-01-01

    with simple stock dynamics, to estimate simultaneously how size distributions and spatial distributions develop in time. We demonstrate the method for a cod population sampled by trawl surveys. Particular attention is paid to correlation between size classes within each trawl haul due to clustering...... of individuals with similar size. The model estimates growth, mortality and reproduction, after which any aspect of size-structure, spatio-temporal population dynamics, as well as the sampling process can be probed. This is illustrated by two applications: 1) tracking the spatial movements of a single cohort...

  19. Crustal Seismic Anisotropy: Implications for Understanding Crustal Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meltzer, A.; Christensen, N.; Okaya, D.

    2003-12-01

    variation in % anisotropy, changes in orientation of the regional foliation within the massif, and velocity (splitting) variance due to non-axial propagation through a wide range of event-station azimuths. Because the composition of the massif is basically homogeneous, the rock fabric is well developed, and the structure well constrained, this data set is ideal for studying and quantifying the affect of non-axial propagation through regional foliation. This type of analysis has important implications for understanding crustal dynamics. Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs ratios are typically used to infer both lithology and rheology of subsurface materials and to provide constraints for thermo-mechanical models of deformation. Current tomography codes do not generally account for anisotropic effects and may potentially under or over estimate velocity structure in the crust. At Nanga Parbat, a prominent low-velocity zone is mapped beneath the core of the massif. The magnitude and extent of this zone constrains crustal flow paths focusing crustal strain, exhumation, and potential zones of partial melting in the crust. Accurate determination of velocity structure is clearly important to understand crustal structure and modification during orogenesis.

  20. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  1. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  2. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Lima

    Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  3. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R K P

    2010-01-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (N a and N b ) and preferred degree (κ a and κ b a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees (k bb ) and (k ab ) presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal N a = N b , the ratio of the restricted degree θ 0 = (k ab )/(k bb ) appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t 1 = κ b ) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ 0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t 1 2 ∝κ a and for which θ 0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ 0 = 3

  4. Social Information Links Individual Behavior to Population and Community Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil, Michael A; Hein, Andrew M; Spiegel, Orr; Baskett, Marissa L; Sih, Andrew

    2018-05-07

    When individual animals make decisions, they routinely use information produced intentionally or unintentionally by other individuals. Despite its prevalence and established fitness consequences, the effects of such social information on ecological dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesize results from ecology, evolutionary biology, and animal behavior to show how the use of social information can profoundly influence the dynamics of populations and communities. We combine recent theoretical and empirical results and introduce simple population models to illustrate how social information use can drive positive density-dependent growth of populations and communities (Allee effects). Furthermore, social information can shift the nature and strength of species interactions, change the outcome of competition, and potentially increase extinction risk in harvested populations and communities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Population dynamics of active and total ciliate populations in arable soil amended with wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekelund, F.; Frederiksen, Helle B.; Ronn, R.

    2002-01-01

    of the population may be encysted. The factors governing the dynamics of active and encysted cells in the soil are not well understood. Our objective was to determine the dynamics of active and encysted populations of ciliates during the decomposition of freshly added organic material. We monitored, in soil...... microcosms, the active and total populations of ciliates, their potential prey (bacteria and small protozoa), their potential competitors (amoebae, flagellates, and nematodes), and their potential predators (nematodes). We sampled with short time intervals (2 to 6 days) and generated a data set, suitable...

  6. Understanding dynamic changes in live cell adhesion with neutron reflectometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junghans, Ann

    Understanding the structure and functionality of biological systems on a nanometer-resolution and short temporal scales is important for solving complex biological problems, developing innovative treatment, and advancing the design of highly functionalized biomimetic materials. For example, adhesion of cells to an underlying substrate plays a crucial role in physiology and disease development, and has been investigated with great interest for several decades. In the talk, we would like to highlight recent advances in utilizing neutron scattering to study bio-related structures in dynamic conditions (e . g . under the shear flow) including in-situ investigations of the interfacial properties of living cells. The strength of neutron reflectometry is its non-pertubative nature, the ability to probe buried interfaces with nanometer resolution and its sensitivity to light elements like hydrogen and carbon. That allows us to study details of cell - substrate interfaces that are not accessible with any other standard techniques. We studied the adhesion of human brain tumor cells (U251) to quartz substrates and their responses to the external mechanical forces. Such cells are isolated within the central nervous system which makes them difficult to reach with conventional therapies and therefore making them highly invasive. Our results reveal changes in the thickness and composition of the adhesion layer (a layer between the cell lipid membrane and the quartz substrate), largely composed of hyaluronic acid and associated proteoglycans, when the cells were subjected to shear stress. Further studies will allow us to determine more conditions triggering changes in the composition of the bio-material in the adhesion layer. This, in turn, can help to identify changes that correlate with tumor invasiveness, which can have significant medical impact for the development of targeted anti-invasive therapies.

  7. SIR dynamics in structured populations with heterogeneous connectivity

    OpenAIRE

    Volz, Erik

    2005-01-01

    Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by describing the exact dynamical behavior of epidemics as they occur in random networks. A system of nonlinear differential equations is presented which describes the behavior of epidemics spreading through random networks with arbitrary degree distributions. ...

  8. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  9. Population dynamics and monitoring applied to decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conroy, M. J.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Research in wildlife conservation and management often affects decisions made by managers. Improving understanding through applied research is key to advancing the ability to manage birds and other organism sefficiently. Indeed, many papers from EURING 2003 and previous EURING meetings describe research on problems of pressing management concern. In this session, we focus on a subset of studies in which modeling and statistical estimation is explicitly connected to management decision-making. In these decision–centric studies, data are gathered and models are constructed with the explicit intention of using the resulting information to inform decisions about conservation. Whereas ecological models often produce information of value to decision makers, decision models explicitly include two additional features. First, management options are modeled via decision variables that link to system attributes that are directly responsive to management actions, such as harvest and habitat management. Second, certain outcomes are assigned value, via an objective or utility function. Both of these features involve factors beyond the usual consideration of ecological modeling; the first implies the presence of one or more “decision makers”, and the second characterizes the societal preferences of each possible outcome resulting from a prospective decision. Our plenary paper, by Tim Haas (Haas, 2004, ventures the furthest into the realm of human behavior and societal processes by modeling the political context for conservation of the endangered cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus in Africa. Haas shows that scientific information (e.g., population monitoring and population viability analyses reaches decision makers through multiple pathways, each of which can modify or reinterpret the information signal. A predictive understanding of the country’s political as well as ecological processes is essential. Hass uses a system of interacting ecological and political

  10. Ecophysiology meets conservation: understanding the role of disease in amphibian population declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaustein, Andrew R.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.; Johnson, Pieter T. J.; Hoverman, Jason T.; Belden, Lisa K.; Bradley, Paul W.; Xie, Gisselle Y.

    2012-01-01

    Infectious diseases are intimately associated with the dynamics of biodiversity. However, the role that infectious disease plays within ecological communities is complex. The complex effects of infectious disease at the scale of communities and ecosystems are driven by the interaction between host and pathogen. Whether or not a given host–pathogen interaction results in progression from infection to disease is largely dependent on the physiological characteristics of the host within the context of the external environment. Here, we highlight the importance of understanding the outcome of infection and disease in the context of host ecophysiology using amphibians as a model system. Amphibians are ideal for such a discussion because many of their populations are experiencing declines and extinctions, with disease as an important factor implicated in many declines and extinctions. Exposure to pathogens and the host's responses to infection can be influenced by many factors related to physiology such as host life history, immunology, endocrinology, resource acquisition, behaviour and changing climates. In our review, we discuss the relationship between disease and biodiversity. We highlight the dynamics of three amphibian host–pathogen systems that induce different effects on hosts and life stages and illustrate the complexity of amphibian–host–parasite systems. We then review links between environmental stress, endocrine–immune interactions, disease and climate change. PMID:22566676

  11. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

    2011-08-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of

  12. Population dynamics of light-limited phytoplankton : Microcosm experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huisman, Jef

    This paper investigates the extent to which the predictions of an elementary model for light-limited growth are matched by laboratory experiments with light-limited phytoplankton. The model and experiments link the population dynamics of phytoplankton species with changes in the light gradient

  13. Distribution and population dynamics of Rhizobium sp. introduced into soil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, J.

    1989-01-01

    In this thesis the population dynamics of bacteria introduced into soil was studied. In the introduction, the existence of microhabitats favourable for the survival of indigenous bacteria is discussed. Knowledge about the distribution of introduced bacteria over

  14. seasonal population dynamics of rodents of mount chilalo, arsi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

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    ABSTRACT: A study on seasonal population dynamics of rodents was carried out on Mount. Chilalo from .... vegetation growth, availability of food and water, and ... vegetation (3,300–4,200 masl) (Alemayehu. Mengistu, 1975; APEDO and ABRDP, 2004). The mountain is one of the Afrotropical biodiversity hotspots areas.

  15. Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of Bacillus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ONOS

    2010-01-25

    Jan 25, 2010 ... Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of ... 25.78, 25.78, 86.26, 24.73, 68.0, 26.8 and 26.8 kDa proteins and equivalent to Cyt, Cry5 and Cry2 toxins ..... Molecular weight (kDa) of protein fractions of the BT isolates.

  16. Population dynamics of the invasive fish, Gambusia affinis , in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Repeated-measures ANOVA analyses on the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of G. affinis between sampling events and dams revealed significant differences in population dynamics among dams, although an overall trend of rapid increase followed by plateau in summer, with a rapid decline in winter was seen in most dams.

  17. Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field

  18. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

  19. An individual-based model of Zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaudouin, Remy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model...

  20. Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koons, David; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semi-arid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, we...... than precipitation and other temperature-related variables (model weight > 3 times more than that for other climate variables). Although we hypothesized that harvest is the primary driving force of bison population dynamics in southern Utah, our elasticity analysis indicated that changes in early...... spring temperature could have a greater ‘relative effect’ on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife...

  1. [Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

    2014-09-01

    Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

  2. Bridging the Timescales of Single-Cell and Population Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafarpour, Farshid; Wright, Charles S.; Gudjonson, Herman; Riebling, Jedidiah; Dawson, Emma; Lo, Klevin; Fiebig, Aretha; Crosson, Sean; Dinner, Aaron R.; Iyer-Biswas, Srividya

    2018-04-01

    How are granular details of stochastic growth and division of individual cells reflected in smooth deterministic growth of population numbers? We provide an integrated, multiscale perspective of microbial growth dynamics by formulating a data-validated theoretical framework that accounts for observables at both single-cell and population scales. We derive exact analytical complete time-dependent solutions to cell-age distributions and population growth rates as functionals of the underlying interdivision time distributions, for symmetric and asymmetric cell division. These results provide insights into the surprising implications of stochastic single-cell dynamics for population growth. Using our results for asymmetric division, we deduce the time to transition from the reproductively quiescent (swarmer) to the replication-competent (stalked) stage of the Caulobacter crescentus life cycle. Remarkably, population numbers can spontaneously oscillate with time. We elucidate the physics leading to these population oscillations. For C. crescentus cells, we show that a simple measurement of the population growth rate, for a given growth condition, is sufficient to characterize the condition-specific cellular unit of time and, thus, yields the mean (single-cell) growth and division timescales, fluctuations in cell division times, the cell-age distribution, and the quiescence timescale.

  3. Central-marginal population dynamics in species invasions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinfeng eGuo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The species’ range limits and associated central-marginal (C-M; i.e., from species range center to margin population dynamics continue to draw increasing attention because of their importance for current emerging issues such as biotic invasions and epidemic diseases under global change. Previous studies have mainly focused on species borders and C-M process in natural settings for native species. More recently, growing efforts are devoted to examine the C-M patterns and process for invasive species partly due to their relatively short history, highly dynamic populations, and management implications. Here I examine recent findings and information gaps related to (1 the C-M population dynamics linked to species invasions, and (2 the possible effects of climate change and land use on the C-M patterns and processes. Unlike most native species that are relatively stable (some even having contracting populations or ranges, many invasive species are still spreading fast and form new distribution or abundance centers. Because of the strong nonlinearity of population demographic or vital rates (i.e. birth, death, immigration and emigration across the C-M gradients and the increased complexity of species ranges due to habitat fragmentation, multiple introductions, range-wide C-M comparisons and simulation involving multiple vital rates are needed in the future.

  4. Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J

    2014-12-21

    Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Porčić

    Full Text Available The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC. These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis.

  6. An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto González Parra

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.

  7. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  8. Population Spatial Dynamics of Larix potaninii in Alpine Treeline Ecotone in the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China

    OpenAIRE

    Jia’nan Cui; Jihong Qin; Hui Sun

    2017-01-01

    The high-altitude treeline is known to be sensitive to climate variability, and is thus considered as a bio-monitoring indicator of climate change. However, our understanding of the population dynamics and the cumulative climate-change effects on the alpine treeline ecotone in recent decades is limited. Here, we investigated the population dynamics of Larix potainii on the south- and north-facing slopes in the alpine treeline ecotone in the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China, includ...

  9. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  10. Efficient characterisation of large deviations using population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Tobias; Clark, Stephen R.; Bradford, Russell; Jack, Robert L.

    2018-05-01

    We consider population dynamics as implemented by the cloning algorithm for analysis of large deviations of time-averaged quantities. We use the simple symmetric exclusion process with periodic boundary conditions as a prototypical example and investigate the convergence of the results with respect to the algorithmic parameters, focussing on the dynamical phase transition between homogeneous and inhomogeneous states, where convergence is relatively difficult to achieve. We discuss how the performance of the algorithm can be optimised, and how it can be efficiently exploited on parallel computing platforms.

  11. Dynamics of a population of oscillatory and excitable elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Keeffe, Kevin P; Strogatz, Steven H

    2016-06-01

    We analyze a variant of a model proposed by Kuramoto, Shinomoto, and Sakaguchi for a large population of coupled oscillatory and excitable elements. Using the Ott-Antonsen ansatz, we reduce the behavior of the population to a two-dimensional dynamical system with three parameters. We present the stability diagram and calculate several of its bifurcation curves analytically, for both excitatory and inhibitory coupling. Our main result is that when the coupling function is broad, the system can display bistability between steady states of constant high and low activity, whereas when the coupling function is narrow and inhibitory, one of the states in the bistable regime can show persistent pulsations in activity.

  12. Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

    2007-04-01

    A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

  13. Understanding original antigenic sin in influenza with a dynamical system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Keyao

    2011-01-01

    Original antigenic sin is the phenomenon in which prior exposure to an antigen leads to a subsequent suboptimal immune response to a related antigen. Immune memory normally allows for an improved and rapid response to antigens previously seen and is the mechanism by which vaccination works. I here develop a dynamical system model of the mechanism of original antigenic sin in influenza, clarifying and explaining the detailed spin-glass treatment of original antigenic sin. The dynamical system describes the viral load, the quantities of healthy and infected epithelial cells, the concentrations of naïve and memory antibodies, and the affinities of naïve and memory antibodies. I give explicit correspondences between the microscopic variables of the spin-glass model and those of the present dynamical system model. The dynamical system model reproduces the phenomenon of original antigenic sin and describes how a competition between different types of B cells compromises the overall effect of immune response. I illustrate the competition between the naïve and the memory antibodies as a function of the antigenic distance between the initial and subsequent antigens. The suboptimal immune response caused by original antigenic sin is observed when the host is exposed to an antigen which has intermediate antigenic distance to a second antigen previously recognized by the host's immune system.

  14. Understanding ecohydrological connectivity in savannas: A system dynamics modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecohydrological connectivity is a system-level property that results from the linkages in the networks of water transport through ecosystems, by which feedback effects and other emergent system behaviors may be generated. We created a systems dynamic model that represents primary ecohydrological net...

  15. Cannabis changes: Understanding dynamics of use and dependence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liebregts, N.

    2015-01-01

    Cannabis is the most widely used illicit drug. Part of ever-users become frequent users and continue to use over a longer period. 600 frequent users (18-30 years) were enrolled in a 3-year longitudinal study. Trajectories of frequent cannabis use and cannabis dependence appeared very dynamic.

  16. Using a novel environmental quality measure to understand population-level physical inactivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Physical inactivity has been associated with numerous adverse health outcomes including obesity, heart disease, and depression, and is considered a major contributor to all-cause mortality worldwide. Understanding the role of the overall ambient environment in population inactivi...

  17. Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

    2013-02-01

    Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  18. Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

    2015-10-01

    Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

  19. Interacting trophic forcing and the population dynamics of herring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Ostman, Orjan; Gardmark, Anna

    2011-01-01

    -up nor top-down, but rather through multiple external and internal drivers. While in many studies single drivers have been identified, potential synergies of multiple factors, as well as their relative importance in regulating population dynamics of small pelagic fish, is a largely unresolved issue....... Using a statistical, age-structured modeling approach, we demonstrate the relative importance and influence of bottom-up (e.g., climate, zooplankton availability) and top-down (i.e., fishing and predation) factors on the population dynamics of Bothnian Sea herring (Clupea harengus) throughout its life...... cycle. Our results indicate significant bottom-up effects of zooplankton and interspecific competition from sprat (Sprattus sprattus), particularly on younger age classes of herring. Although top-down forcing through fishing and predation by grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua...

  20. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Freire

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  1. [Population dynamics of oligosporous actinomycetes in Chernozem soil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zenova, G M; Mikhaĭlova, N V; Zviagintsev, D G

    2000-01-01

    Investigation of the dynamics of an oligosporous actinomycete population in chernozem soil in the course of succession induced by soil wetting allowed us to reveal the time intervals and conditions optimal for the isolation of particular oligosporous actinomycetes. Saccharopolysporas and microbisporas proved to be best isolated in the early and late stages of succession, whereas actinomycetes of the subgroup Actinomadura and saccharomonosporas could be best isolated in the early and intermediate stages of succession.

  2. Scaling up population dynamic processes in a ladybird–aphid

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Houdková, Kateřina; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 48, - (2006), s. 323-332 ISSN 1438-3896 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GEDIV/06/E013; GA MŠk(CZ) LC06073; GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA6087301; GA ČR(CZ) GD206/03/H034 Keywords : Aphids * Egg window * Ladybirds * Metapopulation * Model * Population dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.534, year: 2006

  3. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph G Makin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF, the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm. The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.

  4. How Well Do Students in Secondary School Understand Temporal Development of Dynamical Systems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forjan, Matej; Grubelnik, Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    Despite difficulties understanding the dynamics of complex systems only simple dynamical systems without feedback connections have been taught in secondary school physics. Consequently, students do not have opportunities to develop intuition of temporal development of systems, whose dynamics are conditioned by the influence of feedback processes.…

  5. Border Collision Bifurcations in a Generalized Model of Population Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilia M. Ladino

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the dynamics of a generalized discrete time population model of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture. This generalization, which is inspired by other approaches and real data that one can find in literature, consists in considering no restriction for the value of the two key parameters appearing in the model, that is, the natural death rate and the mortality rate due to fishing activity. In the more general case the feasibility of the system has been preserved by posing opportune formulas for the piecewise map defining the model. The resulting two-dimensional nonlinear map is not smooth, though continuous, as its definition changes as any border is crossed in the phase plane. Hence, techniques from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamical systems must be applied to show that, due to the existence of borders, abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of population sizes and multistability emerge. The main novelty of the present contribution with respect to the previous ones is that, while using real data, richer dynamics are produced, such as fluctuations and multistability. Such new evidences are of great interest in biology since new strategies to preserve the survival of the species can be suggested.

  6. Recent advances in the fundamental understanding of railway vehicle dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    True, Hans

    2006-01-01

    The topic of this article is the calculation of the critical speed for railway vehicles. It is emphasised that it is misleading to formulate the mathematical problem as a stability problem. It must correctly be formulated as a problem of existence of coexisting solutions to the full non-linear dy......The topic of this article is the calculation of the critical speed for railway vehicles. It is emphasised that it is misleading to formulate the mathematical problem as a stability problem. It must correctly be formulated as a problem of existence of coexisting solutions to the full non......-linear dynamical problem. The lowest speed at which there exist more critical speed in road tests. A couple of examples show applications of the method to various dynamical models of railway vehicles. Freight wagons are treated in the end of the article because the dry friction damping with stick-slip and end...

  7. Understanding water: Molecular dynamics simulations of solubilized and crystallized myoglobin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei Gu; Garcia, A.E.; Schoenborn, B.P. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM (United States)

    1994-12-31

    Molecular dynamics simulations were performed on CO myoglobin to evaluate the stability of the bound water molecules as determined in a neutron diffraction analysis. The myoglobin structure derived from the neutron analysis provided the starting coordinate set used in the simulations. The simulations show that only a few water molecules are tightly bound to protein atoms, while most solvent molecules are labile, breaking and reforming hydrogen bonds. Comparison between myoglobin in solution and in a single crystal highlighted some of the packing effects on the solvent structure and shows that water solvent plays an indispensable role in protein dynamics and structural stability. The described observations explain some of the differences in the experimental results of protein hydration as observed in NMR, neutron and X-ray diffraction studies.

  8. Understanding water: Molecular dynamics simulations of solubilized and crystallized myoglobin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Gu; Garcia, A.E.; Schoenborn, B.P.

    1994-01-01

    Molecular dynamics simulations were performed on CO myoglobin to evaluate the stability of the bound water molecules as determined in a neutron diffraction analysis. The myoglobin structure derived from the neutron analysis provided the starting coordinate set used in the simulations. The simulations show that only a few water molecules are tightly bound to protein atoms, while most solvent molecules are labile, breaking and reforming hydrogen bonds. Comparison between myoglobin in solution and in a single crystal highlighted some of the packing effects on the solvent structure and shows that water solvent plays an indispensable role in protein dynamics and structural stability. The described observations explain some of the differences in the experimental results of protein hydration as observed in NMR, neutron and X-ray diffraction studies

  9. Impact of environmental colored noise in single-species population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanio, Tommaso; Hidalgo, Jorge; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2017-10-01

    Variability on external conditions has important consequences for the dynamics and the organization of biological systems. In many cases, the characteristic timescale of environmental changes as well as their correlations play a fundamental role in the way living systems adapt and respond to it. A proper mathematical approach to understand population dynamics, thus, requires approaches more refined than, e.g., simple white-noise approximations. To shed further light onto this problem, in this paper we propose a unifying framework based on different analytical and numerical tools available to deal with "colored" environmental noise. In particular, we employ a "unified colored noise approximation" to map the original problem into an effective one with white noise, and then we apply a standard path integral approach to gain analytical understanding. For the sake of specificity, we present our approach using as a guideline a variation of the contact process—which can also be seen as a birth-death process of the Malthus-Verhulst class—where the propagation or birth rate varies stochastically in time. Our approach allows us to tackle in a systematic manner some of the relevant questions concerning population dynamics under environmental variability, such as determining the stationary population density, establishing the conditions under which a population may become extinct, and estimating extinction times. We focus on the emerging phase diagram and its possible phase transitions, underlying how these are affected by the presence of environmental noise time-correlations.

  10. Integrating population and genetic monitoring to understand changes in the abundance of a threatened seabird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalina Vásquez-Carrillo; R. William Henry; Laird Henkel; M. Zachariah. Peery

    2013-01-01

    Population monitoring programs for threatened species are rarely designed to disentangle the effects of movements from changes in birth and death rates on estimated trends in abundance. Here, we illustrate how population and genetic monitoring can be integrated to understand the cause of large changes in the abundance of a threatened species of seabird, the Marbled...

  11. Understanding Underrepresented Populations in the Business School Pipeline. GMAC® Research Report RR-16-02

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Rhonda; Caruthers, Devina

    2016-01-01

    This white paper, "Understanding Underrepresented Populations in the Business School Pipeline," examines the shifting US racial and ethnic demographics and projected growth among US minority populations and the challenges--and incentives--these developments pose for US business schools to increase the opportunities for minority students…

  12. Extinction dynamics of a discrete population in an oasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berti, Stefano; Cencini, Massimo; Vergni, Davide; Vulpiani, Angelo

    2015-07-01

    Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 1950s with the Kierstead, Slobodkin, and Skellam (KiSS) model, namely a continuous reaction-diffusion equation for a population growing on a patch of finite size L surrounded by a deadly environment with infinite mortality, i.e., an oasis in a desert. The main outcome of the model is that only patches above a critical size allow for population persistence. Here we introduce an individual-based analog of the KiSS model to investigate the effects of discreteness and demographic stochasticity. In particular, we study the average time to extinction both above and below the critical patch size of the continuous model and investigate the quasistationary distribution of the number of individuals for patch sizes above the critical threshold.

  13. A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L

    2010-05-01

    Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer-resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant-mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

  14. A consumer-resource approach to the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J. Nathaniel; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Like predation and competition, mutualism is now recognized as a consumer resource (C-R) interaction, including, in particular, bi-directional (e.g., coral, plant- mycorrhizae) and uni-directional (e.g., ant-plant defense, plant-pollinator) C-R mutualisms. Here, we develop general theory for the density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism based on the C-R mechanism of interspecific interaction. To test the influence of C-R interactions on the dynamics and stability of bi- and uni-directional C-R mutualisms, we developed simple models that link consumer functional response of one mutualistic species with the resources supplied by another. Phase-plane analyses show that the ecological dynamics of C-R mutualisms are stable in general. Most transient behavior leads to an equilibrium of mutualistic coexistence, at which both species densities are greater than in the absence of interactions. However, due to the basic nature of C-R interactions, certain density-dependent conditions can lead to C-R dynamics characteristic of predator-prey interactions, in which one species overexploits and causes the other to go extinct. Consistent with empirical phenomena, these results suggest that the C-R interaction can provide a broad mechanism for understanding density-dependent population dynamics of mutualism. By unifying predation, competition, and mutualism under the common ecological framework of consumer-resource theory, we may also gain a better understanding of the universal features of interspecific interactions in general.

  15. Dynamic Diversity: Toward a Contextual Understanding of Critical Mass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garces, Liliana M.; Jayakumar, Uma M.

    2014-01-01

    Through an analysis of relevant social science evidence, this article provides a deeper understanding of critical mass, a concept that has become central in litigation efforts related to affirmative action admissions policies that seek to further the educational benefits of diversity. We demonstrate that the concept of critical mass requires an…

  16. Understanding the Dynamic System of Terrorist-Government Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-03-01

    Figure 62. Model 5D Equation Level Screen Shot 3 167 Bibliography Bajaracharya, Arun, Stephen Olu Ogunlana, and Nguyen Luong Bach...Understanding the New Security Environment Readings and Interpretations. Guilford, Connecticut: Mc- Graw -Hill/Dushkin 2002 Laqueur, Walter. “Postmodern

  17. On the population dynamics of the malaria vector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngwa, G.A.

    2005-10-01

    A deterministic differential equation model for the population dynamics of the human malaria vector is derived and studied. Conditions for the existence and stability of a non-zero steady state vector population density are derived. These reveal that a threshold parameter, the vectorial basic reproduction number, exist and the vector can establish itself in the community if and only if this parameter exceeds unity. When a non-zero steady state population density exists, it can be stable but it can also be driven to instability via a Hopf Bifurcation to periodic solutions, as a parameter is varied in parameter space. By considering a special case, an asymptotic perturbation analysis is used to derive the amplitude of the oscillating solutions for the full non-linear system. The present modelling exercise and results show that it is possible to study the population dynamics of disease vectors, and hence oscillatory behaviour as it is often observed in most indirectly transmitted infectious diseases of humans, without recourse to external seasonal forcing. (author)

  18. Linking animal population dynamics to alterations in foraging behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard; Tougaard, Jakob

    Background/Question/Methods The survival of animal populations is strongly influenced by the individuals’ ability to forage efficiently, yet there are few studies of how populations respond when disturbances cause animals to deviate from their natural foraging behavior. Animals that respond...... that are increasingly exposed to noise from ships, wind turbines, etc. In the present study we investigate how the dynamics of the harbor porpoise population (Phocoena phocoena) in the inner Danish waters is influenced by disturbances using an agent- based simulation model. In the model animal movement, and hence...... the animals’ ability to forage efficiently and to sustain their energy intake, is influenced by noise emitted from wind turbines and ships. The energy levels in turn affect their survival. The fine-scale movements of the simulated animals was governed by a spatial memory, which allowed the model to produce...

  19. Studies on population dynamic of diamondback moth in the field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malakrong, A.; Limohpasmanee, W.; Keawchoung, P.; Kodcharint, P.

    1994-01-01

    The population dynamic of diamondback moth larva in the field was studied at Khao Khor High-land Agricultural Research Station during August-October 1993 and February-April 1994. The distribution patterns of diamondback moth larva was clumped when population was low and would change to be random when population was high. The maximun and minimum number of diamondback moth in the field were 71,203 and 2,732 larva/rai during March and September. Temperature, rainfall and age of cabbage were slightly relative with number of larva (r=-0.2891, p=0.30; r=-0.2816, p=0.31 and r=0.2931, p=0.29 respectively) but relative humidity has no effect on number of larva

  20. Understanding the Offender/Environment Dynamic for Computer Crimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willison, Robert Andrew

    2005-01-01

    practices by possiblyhighlighting new areas for safeguard implementation. To help facilitate a greaterunderstanding of the offender/environment dynamic, this paper assesses the feasibilityof applying criminological theory to the IS security context. More specifically, threetheories are advanced, which focus...... on the offender's behaviour in a criminal setting. Drawing on an account of the Barings Bank collapse, events highlighted in the casestudy are used to assess whether concepts central to the theories are supported by thedata. It is noted that while one of the theories is to be found wanting in terms ofconceptual...

  1. Applying non-linear dynamics to atrial appendage flow data to understand and characterize atrial arrhythmia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandra, S.; Grimm, R.A.; Katz, R.; Thomas, J.D.

    1996-01-01

    The aim of this study was to better understand and characterize left atrial appendage flow in atrial fibrillation. Atrial fibrillation and flutter are the most common cardiac arrhythmias affecting 15% of the older population. The pulsed Doppler velocity profile data was recorded from the left atrial appendage of patients using transesophageal echocardiography. The data was analyzed using Fourier analysis and nonlinear dynamical tools. Fourier analysis showed that appendage mechanical frequency (f f ) for patients in sinus rhythm was always lower (around1 Hz) than that in atrial fibrillation (5-8 Hz). Among patients with atrial fibrillation spectral power below f f was significantly different suggesting variability within this group of patients. Results that suggested the presence of nonlinear dynamics were: a) the existence of two arbitrary peak frequencies f 1 , f 2 , and other peak frequencies as linear combinations thereof (mf 1 ±nf 2 ), and b) the similarity between the spectrum of patient data and that obtained using the Lorenz equation. Nonlinear analysis tools, including Phase plots and differential radial plots, were also generated from the velocity data using a delay of 10. In the phase plots, some patients displayed a torus-like structure, while others had a more random-like pattern. In the differential radial plots, the first set of patients (with torus-like phase plots) showed fewer values crossing an arbitrary threshold of 10 than did the second set (8 vs. 27 in one typical example). The outcome of cardioversion was different for these two set of patients. Fourier analysis helped to: differentiate between sinus rhythm and atrial fibrillation, understand the characteristics of the wide range of atrial fibrillation patients, and provide hints that atrial fibrillation could be a nonlinear process. Nonlinear dynamical tools helped to further characterize and sub-classify atrial fibrillation

  2. Understanding Social Contagion in Adoption Processes Using Dynamic Social Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Mauricio; Armelini, Guillermo; Salvaj, Erica

    2015-01-01

    There are many studies in the marketing and diffusion literature of the conditions in which social contagion affects adoption processes. Yet most of these studies assume that social interactions do not change over time, even though actors in social networks exhibit different likelihoods of being influenced across the diffusion period. Rooted in physics and epidemiology theories, this study proposes a Susceptible Infectious Susceptible (SIS) model to assess the role of social contagion in adoption processes, which takes changes in social dynamics over time into account. To study the adoption over a span of ten years, the authors used detailed data sets from a community of consumers and determined the importance of social contagion, as well as how the interplay of social and non-social influences from outside the community drives adoption processes. Although social contagion matters for diffusion, it is less relevant in shaping adoption when the study also includes social dynamics among members of the community. This finding is relevant for managers and entrepreneurs who trust in word-of-mouth marketing campaigns whose effect may be overestimated if marketers fail to acknowledge variations in social interactions.

  3. Understanding Social Contagion in Adoption Processes Using Dynamic Social Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Herrera

    Full Text Available There are many studies in the marketing and diffusion literature of the conditions in which social contagion affects adoption processes. Yet most of these studies assume that social interactions do not change over time, even though actors in social networks exhibit different likelihoods of being influenced across the diffusion period. Rooted in physics and epidemiology theories, this study proposes a Susceptible Infectious Susceptible (SIS model to assess the role of social contagion in adoption processes, which takes changes in social dynamics over time into account. To study the adoption over a span of ten years, the authors used detailed data sets from a community of consumers and determined the importance of social contagion, as well as how the interplay of social and non-social influences from outside the community drives adoption processes. Although social contagion matters for diffusion, it is less relevant in shaping adoption when the study also includes social dynamics among members of the community. This finding is relevant for managers and entrepreneurs who trust in word-of-mouth marketing campaigns whose effect may be overestimated if marketers fail to acknowledge variations in social interactions.

  4. Visualizing and Understanding Socio-Environmental Dynamics in Baltimore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitchik, B. F.; Omeara, K.; Guikema, S.; Scott, A.; Bessho, A.; Logan, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    The City of Baltimore, like any city, is the sum of its component neighborhoods, institutions, businesses, cultures, and, ultimately, its people. It is also an organism in its own right, with distinct geography, history, infrastructure, and environments that shape its residents even as it is shaped by them. Sometimes these interactions are obvious but often they are not; while basic economic patterns are widely documented, the distribution of socio-spatial and environmental connections often hides below the surface, as does the potential that those connections hold. Here we present results of a collaborative initiative on the geography, design, and policy of socio-environmental dynamics of Baltimore. Geospatial data derived from satellite imagery, demographic databases, social media feeds, infrastructure plans, and in situ environmental networks, among other sources, are applied to generate an interactive portrait of Baltimore City's social, health, and well-being dynamics. The layering of data serves as a platform for visualizing the interconnectedness of the City and as a database for modeling risk interactions, vulnerabilities, and strengths within and between communities. This presentation will provide an overview of project findings and highlight linkages to education and policy.

  5. Understanding Social Contagion in Adoption Processes Using Dynamic Social Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    There are many studies in the marketing and diffusion literature of the conditions in which social contagion affects adoption processes. Yet most of these studies assume that social interactions do not change over time, even though actors in social networks exhibit different likelihoods of being influenced across the diffusion period. Rooted in physics and epidemiology theories, this study proposes a Susceptible Infectious Susceptible (SIS) model to assess the role of social contagion in adoption processes, which takes changes in social dynamics over time into account. To study the adoption over a span of ten years, the authors used detailed data sets from a community of consumers and determined the importance of social contagion, as well as how the interplay of social and non-social influences from outside the community drives adoption processes. Although social contagion matters for diffusion, it is less relevant in shaping adoption when the study also includes social dynamics among members of the community. This finding is relevant for managers and entrepreneurs who trust in word-of-mouth marketing campaigns whose effect may be overestimated if marketers fail to acknowledge variations in social interactions. PMID:26505473

  6. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayank N Vahia

    Full Text Available Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction.We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples' movement over ~2000 years before the present era.We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available.

  7. The habits of highly effective phages: population dynamics as a framework for identifying therapeutic phages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J Bull

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The use of bacteriophages as antibacterial agents is being actively researched on a global scale. Typically, the phages used are isolated from the wild by plating on the bacteria of interest, and a far larger set of candidate phages is often available than can be used in any application. When an excess of phages is available, how should the best phages be identified? Here we consider phage-bacterial population dynamics as a basis for evaluating and predicting phage success. A central question is whether the innate dynamical properties of phages are the determinants of success, or instead, whether extrinsic, indirect effects can be responsible. We address the dynamical perspective, motivated in part by the absence of dynamics in previously suggested principles of phage therapy. Current mathematical models of bacterial-phage dynamics do not capture the realities of in vivo dynamics, nor is this likely to change, but they do give insight to qualitative properties that may be generalizable. In particular, phage adsorption rate may be critical to treatment success, so understanding the effects of the in vivo environment on host availability may allow prediction of useful phages prior to in vivo experimentation. Principles for predicting efficacy may be derived by developing a greater understanding of the in vivo system, or such principles could be determined empirically by comparing phages with known differences in their dynamic properties. The comparative approach promises to be a powerful method of discovering the key to phage success. We offer five recommendations for future study: (i compare phages differing in treatment efficacy to identify the phage properties associated with success, (ii assay dynamics in vivo, (iii understand mechanisms of bacterial escape from phages, (iv test phages in model infections that are relevant to the intended clinical applications, and (v develop new classes of models for phage growth in spatially heterogeneous

  8. Population dynamics and evolutionary history of the weedy vine Ipomoea hederacea in North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campitelli, Brandon E; Stinchcombe, John R

    2014-06-03

    Disentangling the historical evolutionary processes that contribute to patterns of phenotypic and genetic variation is important for understanding contemporary patterns of both traits of interest and genetic diversity of a species. Ipomoea hederacea is a self-compatible species whose geographic origin is contested, and previous work suggests that although there are signals of adaptation (significant leaf shape and flowering time clines), no population structure or neutral genetic differentiation of I. hederacea populations was detected. Here, we use DNA sequence data to characterize patterns of genetic variation to establish a more detailed understanding of the current and historical processes that may have generated the patterns of genetic variation in this species. We resequenced ca. 5000 bp across 7 genes for 192 individuals taken from 24 populations in North America. Our results indicate that North American I. hederacea populations are ubiquitously genetically depauperate, and patterns of nucleotide diversity are consistent with population expansion. Contrary to previous findings, we discovered significant population subdivision and isolation-by-distance, but genetic structure was spatially discontinuous, potentially implicating long-distance dispersal. We further found significant genetic differentiation at sequenced loci but nearly fourfold stronger differentiation at the leaf shape locus, strengthening evidence that the leaf shape locus is under divergent selection. We propose that North American I. hederacea has experienced a recent founder event, and/or population dynamics are best described by a metapopulation model (high turnover and dispersal), leading to low genetic diversity and a patchy genetic distribution. Copyright © 2014 Campitelli and Stinchcombe.

  9. Evolution of Secondary Software Businesses: Understanding Industry Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyrväinen, Pasi; Warsta, Juhani; Seppänen, Veikko

    Primary software industry originates from IBM's decision to unbundle software-related computer system development activities to external partners. This kind of outsourcing from an enterprise internal software development activity is a common means to start a new software business serving a vertical software market. It combines knowledge of the vertical market process with competence in software development. In this research, we present and analyze the key figures of the Finnish secondary software industry, in order to quantify its interaction with the primary software industry during the period of 2000-2003. On the basis of the empirical data, we present a model for evolution of a secondary software business, which makes explicit the industry dynamics. It represents the shift from internal software developed for competitive advantage to development of products supporting standard business processes on top of standardized technologies. We also discuss the implications for software business strategies in each phase.

  10. Molecular Modeling of Enzyme Dynamics Towards Understanding Solvent Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wedberg, Nils Hejle Rasmus Ingemar

    This thesis describes the development of a molecular simulation methodology to study properties of enzymes in non-aqueous media at fixed thermodynamic water activities. The methodology is applied in a molecular dynamics study of the industrially important enzyme Candida antarctica lipase B (CALB...... of enzyme kinetics in non-aqueous media, it has been a fruitful approach to fix the enzyme hydration level by controlling the water activity of the medium. In this work, a protocol is therefore developed for determining the water activity in non-aqueous protein simulations. The method relies on determining...... integration, while for small systems, it seems to be even better. The method is applied to compute the excess Gibbs energy of the mixtures of water and organic solvents used in the simulations of CALB. This allows to determine the water activity of the simulated systems and thus to compare protein properties...

  11. Local understanding of forest conservation in land use change dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaleh, Muhammad Adha; Guth, Miriam Karen; Rahman, Syed Ajijur

    2016-01-01

    Forest (SEPPSF), Malaysia. Nine in-depth interviews were conducted with Orang Asli Jakun living in SEPPSF using open-ended questions. Local communities have positive perspectives toward the forest conservation program, despite massive environmental changes in their living landscape. This study suggests......The success of local forest conservation program depends on a critical appreciation of local communities. Based on this understanding, the present study aims to explore people’s perspective of forest conservation in a context of changes in their living landscape at South East Pahang Peat Swamp...

  12. Modeling Dynamic Food Choice Processes to Understand Dietary Intervention Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcum, Christopher Steven; Goldring, Megan R; McBride, Colleen M; Persky, Susan

    2018-02-17

    Meal construction is largely governed by nonconscious and habit-based processes that can be represented as a collection of in dividual, micro-level food choices that eventually give rise to a final plate. Despite this, dietary behavior intervention research rarely captures these micro-level food choice processes, instead measuring outcomes at aggregated levels. This is due in part to a dearth of analytic techniques to model these dynamic time-series events. The current article addresses this limitation by applying a generalization of the relational event framework to model micro-level food choice behavior following an educational intervention. Relational event modeling was used to model the food choices that 221 mothers made for their child following receipt of an information-based intervention. Participants were randomized to receive either (a) control information; (b) childhood obesity risk information; (c) childhood obesity risk information plus a personalized family history-based risk estimate for their child. Participants then made food choices for their child in a virtual reality-based food buffet simulation. Micro-level aspects of the built environment, such as the ordering of each food in the buffet, were influential. Other dynamic processes such as choice inertia also influenced food selection. Among participants receiving the strongest intervention condition, choice inertia decreased and the overall rate of food selection increased. Modeling food selection processes can elucidate the points at which interventions exert their influence. Researchers can leverage these findings to gain insight into nonconscious and uncontrollable aspects of food selection that influence dietary outcomes, which can ultimately improve the design of dietary interventions.

  13. Dynamical networks: Finding, measuring, and tracking neural population activity using network science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark D. Humphries

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Systems neuroscience is in a headlong rush to record from as many neurons at the same time as possible. As the brain computes and codes using neuron populations, it is hoped these data will uncover the fundamentals of neural computation. But with hundreds, thousands, or more simultaneously recorded neurons come the inescapable problems of visualizing, describing, and quantifying their interactions. Here I argue that network science provides a set of scalable, analytical tools that already solve these problems. By treating neurons as nodes and their interactions as links, a single network can visualize and describe an arbitrarily large recording. I show that with this description we can quantify the effects of manipulating a neural circuit, track changes in population dynamics over time, and quantitatively define theoretical concepts of neural populations such as cell assemblies. Using network science as a core part of analyzing population recordings will thus provide both qualitative and quantitative advances to our understanding of neural computation.

  14. Population Dynamics of the Mediterranean Fruit Fly in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Radonjić

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Population dynamics of the Mediterranean fruit fly was studied along Montenegro seacoast. Tephri traps baited with 3 component female-biased attractants were used in 11 different localities to monitor the fruit fly population in commercial citrus orchards, mixed-fruit orchards, and in backyards. From 2008–2010, the earliest captures were recorded no earlier than July. In 2011, the first adult fly was detected in mid-June. Low captures rates were recorded in July and August (below 0.5 flies per trap per day; FTD and peaked from mid-September to the end of October of each year. Our results indicate fluctuation of fly per trap per day depending on dates of inspection and locality, with significant differences in the adult population density. A maximum population was always reached in the area of Budva-Herceg Novi with an FTD of 66.5, 89.5, 71.63, and 24.64 (from 2008–2011 respectively. Fly activity lasts from mid-June/early-July to end December, with distinct seasonal variation in the population.

  15. Spatiotemporal dynamics in understanding hand—object interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avanzini, Pietro; Fabbri-Destro, Maddalena; Campi, Cristina; Pascarella, Annalisa; Barchiesi, Guido; Cattaneo, Luigi; Rizzolatti, Giacomo

    2013-01-01

    It is generally accepted that visual perception results from the activation of a feed-forward hierarchy of areas, leading to increasingly complex representations. Here we present evidence for a fundamental role of backward projections to the occipito-temporal region for understanding conceptual object properties. The evidence is based on two studies. In the first study, using high-density EEG, we showed that during the observation of how objects are used there is an early activation of occipital and temporal areas, subsequently reaching the pole of the temporal lobe, and a late reactivation of the visual areas. In the second study, using transcranial magnetic stimulation over the occipital lobe, we showed a clear impairment in the accuracy of recognition of how objects are used during both early activation and, most importantly, late occipital reactivation. These findings represent strong neurophysiological evidence that a top-down mechanism is fundamental for understanding conceptual object properties, and suggest that a similar mechanism might be also present for other higher-order cognitive functions. PMID:24043805

  16. Dynamic systems for everyone understanding how our world works

    CERN Document Server

    Ghosh, Asish

    2015-01-01

    This book is a study of the interactions between different types of systems, their environment, and their subsystems.  The author explains how basic systems principles are applied in engineered (mechanical, electromechanical, etc.) systems and then guides the reader to understand how the same principles can be applied to social, political, economic systems, as well as in everyday life.  Readers from a variety of disciplines will benefit from the understanding of system behaviors and will be able to apply those principles in various contexts.  The book includes many examples covering various types of systems.  The treatment of the subject is non-mathematical, and the book considers some of the latest concepts in the systems discipline, such as agent-based systems, optimization, and discrete events and procedures.  ·         Shows how system knowledge may be applied in many different areas without the need for deep mathematical knowledge; ·         Demonstrates how to model and simulate s...

  17. Lab experiments in demographic fieldwork: Understanding gender dynamics in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Nii-Amoo Dodoo

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Anthropological literature has long linked bridewealth payments to decision-making about fertility. Recent research underscores the significance of men's preferences regarding women's reproductive behavior, and suggests that bridewealth payments place constraints on women's reproductive autonomy. Yet because survey data on bridewealth are rare, and the collection of new survey data on bridewealth presents serious challenges, this explanation could not be tested. Objective: Our objective in this paper is to highlight the potential utility of lab experiments (in particular, vignette experiments for improving our understanding of gender relations in Africa, using the hypothesized effect of bridewealth on normative constraints on women's reproductive autonomy as an illustration. Methods: We discuss our reasons for turning to lab experiments, and to vignette experiments in particular. We also summarize a series of studies (Horne, Dodoo, and Dodoo 2013; Dodoo, Horne, and Biney 2014 which have implemented our experimental approach. Results: Our experimental evidence shows that bridewealth payments are associated with greater normative constraints on women's reproductive autonomy. We also find that these negative effects of bridewealth are consistent across participant ages, and do not appear to be ameliorated by female schooling. Conclusions: We conclude that lab experiments in general (and vignette experiments in particular are underutilized methodological tools that may be useful for helping us gain a better understanding of the cultural context of gender relations in Africa; and that demographic research more generally may benefit from taking advantage of the strengths of experimental methods.

  18. Population dynamics of Ascaris suum in trickle-infected pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nejsum, Peter; Thamsborg, Stig M; Petersen, Heidi H; Kringel, Helene; Fredholm, Merete; Roepstorff, Allan

    2009-10-01

    The population dynamics of Ascaris suum was studied by long-term exposure of pigs to infective eggs. The pigs were experimentally inoculated with 25 A. suum eggs/kg/day, and 7, 8, and 8 pigs were necropsied at weeks 4, 8, and 14 postinoculation (PI), respectively. Despite the fact that the pigs were continuously reinfected, dramatic reductions in numbers of liver lesions (white spots) and migrating lung larvae were observed as a function of time. However, even at the end of the study, a few larvae were able to complete migration, but these larvae seemed unable to mature in the small intestine. Thus, the adult worm population seemed to consist of worms from the first part of the exposure period. The noticeable decrease in number of white spots suggests that the level of exposure is not reflected in the number of white spots in the late phase of a continuous infection. The serum levels of A. suum L3-specific IgG1 and IgA were significantly elevated by week 4 PI, after which the antibody levels declined. The population dynamics and parasite regulating mechanisms are discussed for A. suum in pigs as well as for the closely related species A. lumbricoides in humans.

  19. Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

    2018-02-03

    For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

  20. Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations

    OpenAIRE

    Hirunsalee, Anan; Barker, K. R.; Beute, M. K.

    1995-01-01

    A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduc...

  1. Heat exposure in cities: combining the dynamics of temperature and population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, L.; Wilhelmi, O.; Uejio, C. K.

    2017-12-01

    Assessment of human exposure to extreme heat requires the distributions of temperature and population. However, both variables are dynamic, thus presenting many challenges in capturing temperature and population patterns spatially and over time in an urban context. This study aims to improve the understanding of spatiotemporal patterns of urban population exposure to heat, taking Chicago, USA as an example. We estimate the hourly, geographically variable, population distribution considering commute of workers and students in a regular weekday and analyze the diurnal air temperature patterns during different meteorological conditions from satellite observations. The results show a relatively larger temperature increase in less urbanized areas during extreme heat events (EHEs), resulting in a spatially homogeneous temperature distribution over Chicago Metropolitan area. A lake cooling effect is weaker during EHEs. Population dynamics due to daily commute determine higher population density in more urbanized areas during daytime. The city-wide analysis reveals that the exposure is more sensitive to the nighttime temperature increases, and EHEs enhance this sensitivity. The high exposure hotspots are identified at the northwest Chicago, Cicero and Oak Park areas, where the influence from Lake Michigan is weakened, while the spatial extent of high outdoor exposure areas varies diurnally. This study's findings have potential to better inform general heat mitigation strategies during hot summer months and facilitate emergency response during EHEs. Availability of remotely-sensed temperature observations as well as the workers and students commute-adjusted population data allows for the adoption of this study's methodology in other major metropolitan areas. A better understanding of space-time patterns of urban population's exposure to heat will further enable local decision makers to mitigate extreme heat health risks and develop more targeted heat preparedness and

  2. Genetic approaches to understanding the population-level impact of wind energy development on migratory bats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vonhof, Maarten J. [Western Michigan Univ., Kalamazoo MI (United States); Russell, Amy L. [Grand Valley State Univ. Allendale, MI (United States)

    2013-09-30

    Documented fatalities of bats at wind turbines have raised serious concerns about the future impacts of increased wind power development on populations of migratory bat species. Yet there is little data on bat population sizes and trends to provide context for understanding the consequences of mortality due to wind power development. Using a large dataset of both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA variation for eastern red bats, we demonstrated that: 1) this species forms a single, panmictic population across their range with no evidence for the historical use of divergent migratory pathways by any portion of the population; 2) the effective size of this population is in the hundreds of thousands to millions; and 3) for large populations, genetic diversity measures and at least one coalescent method are insensitive to even very high rates of population decline over long time scales and until population size has become very small. Our data provide important context for understanding the population-level impacts of wind power development on affected bat species.

  3. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leilei Qu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1 have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings.

  4. Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stepanov, Serguei [Optics Department, CICESE, km.107 carr. Tijuana-Ensenada, Ensenada, 22860, BC (Mexico)], E-mail: steps@cicese.mx

    2008-11-21

    Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.

  5. Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stepanov, Serguei

    2008-01-01

    Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.

  6. Understanding the heavy-tailed dynamics in human behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Gordon J.; Jones, Tim

    2015-06-01

    The recent availability of electronic data sets containing large volumes of communication data has made it possible to study human behavior on a larger scale than ever before. From this, it has been discovered that across a diverse range of data sets, the interevent times between consecutive communication events obey heavy-tailed power law dynamics. Explaining this has proved controversial, and two distinct hypotheses have emerged. The first holds that these power laws are fundamental, and arise from the mechanisms such as priority queuing that humans use to schedule tasks. The second holds that they are statistical artifacts which only occur in aggregated data when features such as circadian rhythms and burstiness are ignored. We use a large social media data set to test these hypotheses, and find that although models that incorporate circadian rhythms and burstiness do explain part of the observed heavy tails, there is residual unexplained heavy-tail behavior which suggests a more fundamental cause. Based on this, we develop a quantitative model of human behavior which improves on existing approaches and gives insight into the mechanisms underlying human interactions.

  7. A dynamical system perspective to understanding badminton singles game play.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Jia Yi; Seifert, Ludovic; Hérault, Romain; Chia, Shannon Jing Yi; Lee, Miriam Chang Yi

    2014-02-01

    By altering the task constraints of cooperative and competitive game contexts in badminton, insights can be obtained from a dynamical systems perspective to investigate the underlying processes that results in either a gradual shift or transition of playing patterns. Positional data of three pairs of skilled female badminton players (average age 20.5±1.38years) were captured and analyzed. Local correlation coefficient, which provides information on the relationship of players' displacement data, between each pair of players was computed for angle and distance from base position. Speed scalar product was in turn established from speed vectors of the players. The results revealed two patterns of playing behaviors (i.e., in-phase and anti-phase patterns) for movement displacement. Anti-phase relation was the dominant coupling pattern for speed scalar relationships among the pairs of players. Speed scalar product, as a collective variable, was different between cooperative and competitive plays with a greater variability in amplitude seen in competitive plays leading to a winning point. The findings from this study provide evidence for increasing stroke variability to perturb existing stable patterns of play and highlights the potential for speed scalar product to be a collective variable to distinguish different patterns of play (e.g., cooperative and competitive). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

  9. Dynamic assessments of population exposure to urban greenspace using multi-source big data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yimeng; Huang, Bo; Cai, Jixuan; Chen, Bin

    2018-09-01

    A growing body of evidence has proven that urban greenspace is beneficial to improve people's physical and mental health. However, knowledge of population exposure to urban greenspace across different spatiotemporal scales remains unclear. Moreover, the majority of existing environmental assessments are unable to quantify how residents enjoy their ambient greenspace during their daily life. To deal with this challenge, we proposed a dynamic method to assess urban greenspace exposure with the integration of mobile-phone locating-request (MPL) data and high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images. This method was further applied to 30 major cities in China by assessing cities' dynamic greenspace exposure levels based on residents' surrounding areas with different buffer scales (0.5km, 1km, and 1.5km). Results showed that regarding residents' 0.5-km surrounding environment, Wenzhou and Hangzhou were found to be with the greenest exposure experience, whereas Zhengzhou and Tangshan were the least ones. The obvious diurnal and daily variations of population exposure to their surrounding greenspace were also identified to be highly correlated with the distribution pattern of urban greenspace and the dynamics of human mobility. Compared with two common measurements of urban greenspace (green coverage rate and green area per capita), the developed method integrated the dynamics of population distribution and geographic locations of urban greenspace into the exposure assessment, thereby presenting a more reasonable way to assess population exposure to urban greenspace. Additionally, this dynamic framework could hold potential utilities in supporting urban planning studies and environmental health studies and advancing our understanding of the magnitude of population exposure to greenspace at different spatiotemporal scales. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Maintenance of algal endosymbionts in Paramecium bursaria: a simple model based on population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwai, Sosuke; Fujiwara, Kenji; Tamura, Takuro

    2016-09-01

    Algal endosymbiosis is widely distributed in eukaryotes including many protists and metazoans, and plays important roles in aquatic ecosystems, combining phagotrophy and phototrophy. To maintain a stable symbiotic relationship, endosymbiont population size in the host must be properly regulated and maintained at a constant level; however, the mechanisms underlying the maintenance of algal endosymbionts are still largely unknown. Here we investigate the population dynamics of the unicellular ciliate Paramecium bursaria and its Chlorella-like algal endosymbiont under various experimental conditions in a simple culture system. Our results suggest that endosymbiont population size in P. bursaria was not regulated by active processes such as cell division coupling between the two organisms, or partitioning of the endosymbionts at host cell division. Regardless, endosymbiont population size was eventually adjusted to a nearly constant level once cells were grown with light and nutrients. To explain this apparent regulation of population size, we propose a simple mechanism based on the different growth properties (specifically the nutrient requirements) of the two organisms, and based from this develop a mathematical model to describe the population dynamics of host and endosymbiont. The proposed mechanism and model may provide a basis for understanding the maintenance of algal endosymbionts. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Do farming practices influence population dynamics of rodents?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Massawe, A W; Rwamugira, W; Leirs, Herwig

    2007-01-01

    A capture-mark-recapture study was conducted in crop fields in Morogoro, Tanzania, to investigate how the population dynamics of multimammate field rats, Mastomys natalensis, was influenced by the commonly practised land preparation methods and cropping systems. Two land preparation methods (trac...... practices. In maize fields in Tanzania, the crop is most susceptible to damage by M. natalensis in the first 2 weeks after planting, and therefore, lower densities of rodents will result into lower crop damage in tractor ploughed fields....

  12. Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Jonathan A; Dann, Benjamin; Scherberger, Hansjörg

    2016-11-01

    Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity.

  13. Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

    2018-03-01

    Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

  14. Fast stochastic algorithm for simulating evolutionary population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsimring, Lev; Hasty, Jeff; Mather, William

    2012-02-01

    Evolution and co-evolution of ecological communities are stochastic processes often characterized by vastly different rates of reproduction and mutation and a coexistence of very large and very small sub-populations of co-evolving species. This creates serious difficulties for accurate statistical modeling of evolutionary dynamics. In this talk, we introduce a new exact algorithm for fast fully stochastic simulations of birth/death/mutation processes. It produces a significant speedup compared to the direct stochastic simulation algorithm in a typical case when the total population size is large and the mutation rates are much smaller than birth/death rates. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm on several representative examples: evolution on a smooth fitness landscape, NK model, and stochastic predator-prey system.

  15. Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shayegh, Soheil

    2017-11-01

    Climate change impacts may drive affected populations to migrate. However, migration decisions in response to climate change could have broader effects on population dynamics in affected regions. Here, I model the effect of climate change on fertility rates, income inequality, and human capital accumulation in developing countries, focusing on the instrumental role of migration as a key adaptation mechanism. In particular, I investigate how climate-induced migration in developing countries will affect those who do not migrate. I find that holding all else constant, climate change raises the return on acquiring skills, because skilled individuals have greater migration opportunities than unskilled individuals. In response to this change in incentives, parents may choose to invest more in education and have fewer children. This may ultimately reduce local income inequality, partially offsetting some of the damages of climate change for low-income individuals who do not migrate.

  16. State-dependent neutral delay equations from population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbarossa, M V; Hadeler, K P; Kuttler, C

    2014-10-01

    A novel class of state-dependent delay equations is derived from the balance laws of age-structured population dynamics, assuming that birth rates and death rates, as functions of age, are piece-wise constant and that the length of the juvenile phase depends on the total adult population size. The resulting class of equations includes also neutral delay equations. All these equations are very different from the standard delay equations with state-dependent delay since the balance laws require non-linear correction factors. These equations can be written as systems for two variables consisting of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) and a generalized shift, a form suitable for numerical calculations. It is shown that the neutral equation (and the corresponding ODE--shift system) is a limiting case of a system of two standard delay equations.

  17. Dynamic systems for everyone understanding how our world works

    CERN Document Server

    Ghosh, Asish

    2017-01-01

    Systems are everywhere and we are surrounded by them. We are a complex amalgam of systems that enable us to interact with an endless array of external systems in our daily lives. They are electrical, mechanical, social, biological, and many other types that control our environment and our well-being. By appreciating how these systems function, will broaden our understanding of how our world works. Readers from a variety of disciplines will benefit from the knowledge of system behavior they will gain from this book and will be able to apply those principles in various contexts. The treatment of the subject is non-mathematical, and the book considers some of the latest concepts in the systems discipline, such as agent based systems, optimization, and discrete events and procedures. The diverse range of examples provided in this book, will allow readers to: Apply system knowledge at work and in daily life without deep mathematical knowledge; Build models and simulate system behaviors on a personal computer; Opti...

  18. Uncoupling the effects of seed predation and seed dispersal by granivorous ants on plant population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Arnan

    Full Text Available Secondary seed dispersal is an important plant-animal interaction, which is central to understanding plant population and community dynamics. Very little information is still available on the effects of dispersal on plant demography and, particularly, for ant-seed dispersal interactions. As many other interactions, seed dispersal by animals involves costs (seed predation and benefits (seed dispersal, the balance of which determines the outcome of the interaction. Separate quantification of each of them is essential in order to understand the effects of this interaction. To address this issue, we have successfully separated and analyzed the costs and benefits of seed dispersal by seed-harvesting ants on the plant population dynamics of three shrub species with different traits. To that aim a stochastic, spatially-explicit individually-based simulation model has been implemented based on actual data sets. The results from our simulation model agree with theoretical models of plant response dependent on seed dispersal, for one plant species, and ant-mediated seed predation, for another one. In these cases, model predictions were close to the observed values at field. Nonetheless, these ecological processes did not affect in anyway a third species, for which the model predictions were far from the observed values. This indicates that the balance between costs and benefits associated to secondary seed dispersal is clearly related to specific traits. This study is one of the first works that analyze tradeoffs of secondary seed dispersal on plant population dynamics, by disentangling the effects of related costs and benefits. We suggest analyzing the effects of interactions on population dynamics as opposed to merely analyzing the partners and their interaction strength.

  19. Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortego, Joaquín; Yannic, Glenn; Shafer, Aaron B A; Mainguy, Julien; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coltman, David W; Côté, Steeve D

    2011-04-01

    The association between population dynamics and genetic variability is of fundamental importance for both evolutionary and conservation biology. We combined long-term population monitoring and molecular genetic data from 123 offspring and their parents at 28 microsatellite loci to investigate changes in genetic diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental genetic similarity and inbreeding coefficients (F(IS) ) increased over the study period (1995-2008). Immigrants introduced three novel alleles into the population and matings between residents and immigrants produced more heterozygous offspring than local crosses, suggesting that immigration can increase population genetic variability. The population experienced genetic drift over the study period, reflected by a reduced allelic richness over time and an 'isolation-by-time' pattern of genetic structure. The temporal decline of individual genetic diversity despite increasing population size probably resulted from a combination of genetic drift due to small effective population size, inbreeding and insufficient counterbalancing by immigration. This study highlights the importance of long-term genetic monitoring to understand how demographic processes influence temporal changes of genetic diversity in long-lived organisms. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  20. Evolutionary game theory for physical and biological scientists. I. Training and validating population dynamics equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, David; Tlsty, Thea D

    2014-08-06

    Failure to understand evolutionary dynamics has been hypothesized as limiting our ability to control biological systems. An increasing awareness of similarities between macroscopic ecosystems and cellular tissues has inspired optimism that game theory will provide insights into the progression and control of cancer. To realize this potential, the ability to compare game theoretic models and experimental measurements of population dynamics should be broadly disseminated. In this tutorial, we present an analysis method that can be used to train parameters in game theoretic dynamics equations, used to validate the resulting equations, and used to make predictions to challenge these equations and to design treatment strategies. The data analysis techniques in this tutorial are adapted from the analysis of reaction kinetics using the method of initial rates taught in undergraduate general chemistry courses. Reliance on computer programming is avoided to encourage the adoption of these methods as routine bench activities.

  1. Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirunsalee, A; Barker, K R; Beute, M K

    1995-06-01

    A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduction, and root-damage potentials on susceptible tobacco were similar for Ma1 and Ma2. In the mixed (1:1) population, Ma1 was dominant on peanut and Ma2 was dominant on both tobacco cultivars. Crop rotation affected the population dynamics of different nematode races. For years 2 and 3, the low numbers of Ma1 and Ma2 from a previous-year poor host increased rapidly on suitable hosts. Ma1 had greater reproduction factors ([RF] = population density at harvest/population density at preplandng) than did Ma2 and Ma1 + Ma2 in second-year peanut plots following first-year resistant tobacco, and in third-year peanut plots following second-year tobacco. In mixed infestations, Ma1 predominated over Ma2 in previous-year peanut plots, whereas Ma2 predominated over Ma1 in previous-year tobacco plots. Moderate damage on resistant tobacco was induced by Ma1 in the second year. In the third year, moderate damage on peanut was associated with 'Ma2' from previous-year peanut plots. The resistant tobacco supported sufficient reproduction of Ma1 over 2 years to effect moderate damage and yield suppression to peanut in year 3.

  2. Understanding pyrotechnic shock dynamics and response attenuation over distance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, Richard J.

    Pyrotechnic shock events used during stage separation on rocket vehicles produce high amplitude short duration structural response that can lead to malfunction or degradation of electronic components, cracks and fractures in brittle materials, local plastic deformation, and can cause materials to experience accelerated fatigue life. These transient loads propagate as waves through the structural media losing energy as they travel outward from the source. This work assessed available test data in an effort to better understand attenuation characteristics associated with wave propagation and attempted to update a historical standard defined by the Martin Marietta Corporation in the late 1960's using out of date data acquisition systems. Two data sets were available for consideration. The first data set came from a test that used a flight like cylinder used in NASA's Ares I-X program, and the second from a test conducted with a flat plate. Both data sets suggested that the historical standard was not a conservative estimate of shock attenuation with distance, however, the variation in the test data did not lend to recommending an update to the standard. Beyond considering attenuation with distance an effort was made to model the flat plate configuration using finite element analysis. The available flat plate data consisted of three groups of tests, each with a unique charge density linear shape charge (LSC) used to cut an aluminum plate. The model was tuned to a representative test using the lowest charge density LSC as input. The correlated model was then used to predict the other two cases by linearly scaling the input load based on the relative difference in charge density. The resulting model predictions were then compared with available empirical data. Aside from differences in amplitude due to nonlinearities associated with scaling the charge density of the LSC, the model predictions matched the available test data reasonably well. Finally, modeling best

  3. Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

    2016-01-01

    The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

  4. Dynamic use of geoscience information to develop scientific understanding for a nuclear waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, N.G.W.; Tsang, C.F.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses the development and safety evaluation of a nuclear waste geologic repository. Scientific understanding dependent upon information from a number of geoscience disciplines is described. A discussion is given on the dynamic use of the information through the different stages. The authors point out the need for abstracting, deriving and updating a quantitative spatial and process model (QSPM) to develop a scientific understanding of site responses as a crucial element in the dynamic procedure

  5. Representation of dynamical stimuli in populations of threshold neurons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatjana Tchumatchenko

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Many sensory or cognitive events are associated with dynamic current modulations in cortical neurons. This raises an urgent demand for tractable model approaches addressing the merits and limits of potential encoding strategies. Yet, current theoretical approaches addressing the response to mean- and variance-encoded stimuli rarely provide complete response functions for both modes of encoding in the presence of correlated noise. Here, we investigate the neuronal population response to dynamical modifications of the mean or variance of the synaptic bombardment using an alternative threshold model framework. In the variance and mean channel, we provide explicit expressions for the linear and non-linear frequency response functions in the presence of correlated noise and use them to derive population rate response to step-like stimuli. For mean-encoded signals, we find that the complete response function depends only on the temporal width of the input correlation function, but not on other functional specifics. Furthermore, we show that both mean- and variance-encoded signals can relay high-frequency inputs, and in both schemes step-like changes can be detected instantaneously. Finally, we obtain the pairwise spike correlation function and the spike triggered average from the linear mean-evoked response function. These results provide a maximally tractable limiting case that complements and extends previous results obtained in the integrate and fire framework.

  6. Population dynamics of Trichuris suis in trickle-infected pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nejsum, P; Thamsborg, S M; Petersen, H H; Kringel, H; Fredholm, M; Roepstorff, A

    2009-05-01

    The population dynamics of Trichuris suis in pigs was studied during long-term experimental infections. Twenty-three 10-week-old pigs were inoculated with 5 T. suis eggs/kg/day. Seven, 8, and 8 pigs were necropsied at weeks 4, 8, and 14 post-start of infection (p.i.), respectively. The median numbers of worms in the colon were 538 (min-max: 277-618), 332 (14-1140) and 0 (0-4) at 4, 8, and 14 weeks p.i. respectively, suggesting an increased aggregation of the worms with time and acquisition of nearly sterile immunity. The serum levels of T. suis specific antibodies (IgG1, IgG2 and IgA) peaked at week 8 p.i. By week 14 p.i. the IgG2 and IgA antibody levels remained significantly elevated above the level of week 0. The population dynamics of T. suis trickle infections in pigs is discussed with focus on interpretation of diagnostic and epidemiological data of pigs, the use of pigs as a model for human Trichuris trichiura infections and the novel approach of using T. suis eggs in the treatment of patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

  7. Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Annabel L

    2018-01-01

    Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

  8. Can Dynamic Visualizations Improve Middle School Students' Understanding of Energy in Photosynthesis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryoo, Kihyun; Linn, Marcia C.

    2012-01-01

    Dynamic visualizations have the potential to make abstract scientific phenomena more accessible and visible to students, but they can also be confusing and difficult to comprehend. This research investigates how dynamic visualizations, compared to static illustrations, can support middle school students in developing an integrated understanding of…

  9. Scaling of the mean and variance of population dynamics under fluctuating regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pertoldi, Cino; Faurby, S; Reed, D H; Knape, J; Björklund, M; Lundberg, P; Kaitala, V; Loeschcke, V; Bach, L A

    2014-12-01

    Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on the interactions between exogenous (biotic and abiotic) and endogenous (e.g., demographic and genetic) drivers of population dynamics. Recent work focuses on the autocorrelation structure of environmental perturbations and its effects on the persistence of populations. Accurate estimation of extinction times and especially determination of the mechanisms affecting extinction times is important for biodiversity conservation. Here we examine the interaction between environmental fluctuations and the scaling effect of the mean population size with its variance. We investigate how interactions between environmental and demographic stochasticity can affect the mean time to extinction, change optimal patch size dynamics, and how it can alter the often-assumed linear relationship between the census size and the effective population size. The importance of the correlation between environmental and demographic variation depends on the relative importance of the two types of variation. We found the correlation to be important when the two types of variation were approximately equal; however, the importance of the correlation diminishes as one source of variation dominates. The implications of these findings are discussed from a conservation and eco-evolutionary point of view.

  10. Models to understand the population-level impact of mixed strain M. tuberculosis infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sergeev, Rinat; Colijn, Caroline; Cohen, Ted

    2011-07-07

    Over the past decade, numerous studies have identified tuberculosis patients in whom more than one distinct strain of Mycobacterium tuberculosis is present. While it has been shown that these mixed strain infections can reduce the probability of treatment success for individuals simultaneously harboring both drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains, it is not yet known if and how this phenomenon impacts the long-term dynamics for tuberculosis within communities. Strain-specific differences in immunogenicity and associations with drug resistance suggest that a better understanding of how strains compete within hosts will be necessary to project the effects of mixed strain infections on the future burden of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant tuberculosis. In this paper, we develop a modeling framework that allows us to investigate mechanisms of strain competition within hosts and to assess the long-term effects of such competition on the ecology of strains in a population. These models permit us to systematically evaluate the importance of unknown parameters and to suggest priority areas for future experimental research. Despite the current scarcity of data to inform the values of several model parameters, we are able to draw important qualitative conclusions from this work. We find that mixed strain infections may promote the coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains in two ways. First, mixed strain infections allow a strain with a lower basic reproductive number to persist in a population where it would otherwise be outcompeted if has competitive advantages within a co-infected host. Second, some individuals progressing to phenotypically drug-sensitive tuberculosis from a state of mixed drug-sensitive and drug-resistant infection may retain small subpopulations of drug-resistant bacteria that can flourish once the host is treated with antibiotics. We propose that these types of mixed infections, by increasing the ability of low fitness drug

  11. Understanding Risk and Protective Factors for Child Maltreatment: The Value of Integrated, Population-Based Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam-Hornstein, Emily; Needell, Barbara; Rhodes, Anne E.

    2013-01-01

    In this article, we argue for expanded efforts to integrate administrative data systems as a "practical strategy" for developing a richer understanding of child abuse and neglect. Although the study of child maltreatment is often critiqued for being atheoretical, we believe that a more pressing concern is the absence of population-based and…

  12. Markov Processes: Exploring the Use of Dynamic Visualizations to Enhance Student Understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfannkuch, Maxine; Budgett, Stephanie

    2016-01-01

    Finding ways to enhance introductory students' understanding of probability ideas and theory is a goal of many first-year probability courses. In this article, we explore the potential of a prototype tool for Markov processes using dynamic visualizations to develop in students a deeper understanding of the equilibrium and hitting times…

  13. Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A S  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A S = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria

  14. Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long-lived seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Desprez, Marine; Fay, Remi; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Delord, Karine; Caswell, Hal

    2018-07-01

    Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long-lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: "Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?" We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry-over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at-sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre-breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry-over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate

  15. The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay M Beck-Johnson

    Full Text Available The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.

  16. Mean-field games with logistic population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2013-12-01

    In its standard form, a mean-field game can be defined by coupled system of equations, a Hamilton-Jacobi equation for the value function of agents and a Fokker-Planck equation for the density of agents. Traditionally, the latter equation is adjoint to the linearization of the former. Since the Fokker-Planck equation models a population dynamic, we introduce natural features such as seeding and birth, and nonlinear death rates. In this paper we analyze a stationary meanfield game in one dimension, illustrating various techniques to obtain regularity of solutions in this class of systems. In particular we consider a logistic-type model for birth and death of the agents which is natural in problems where crowding affects the death rate of the agents. The introduction of these new terms requires a number of new ideas to obtain wellposedness. In a forthcoming publication we will address higher dimensional models. ©2013 IEEE.

  17. Mean-field games with logistic population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.; De Lima Ribeiro, Ricardo

    2013-01-01

    In its standard form, a mean-field game can be defined by coupled system of equations, a Hamilton-Jacobi equation for the value function of agents and a Fokker-Planck equation for the density of agents. Traditionally, the latter equation is adjoint to the linearization of the former. Since the Fokker-Planck equation models a population dynamic, we introduce natural features such as seeding and birth, and nonlinear death rates. In this paper we analyze a stationary meanfield game in one dimension, illustrating various techniques to obtain regularity of solutions in this class of systems. In particular we consider a logistic-type model for birth and death of the agents which is natural in problems where crowding affects the death rate of the agents. The introduction of these new terms requires a number of new ideas to obtain wellposedness. In a forthcoming publication we will address higher dimensional models. ©2013 IEEE.

  18. Richards-like two species population dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2014-12-01

    The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished.

  19. Artificial bee colony algorithm with dynamic multi-population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ming; Ji, Zhicheng; Wang, Yan

    2017-07-01

    To improve the convergence rate and make a balance between the global search and local turning abilities, this paper proposes a decentralized form of artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm with dynamic multi-populations by means of fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering. Each subpopulation periodically enlarges with the same size during the search process, and the overlapping individuals among different subareas work for delivering information acting as exploring the search space with diffusion of solutions. Moreover, a Gaussian-based search equation with redefined local attractor is proposed to further accelerate the diffusion of the best solution and guide the search towards potential areas. Experimental results on a set of benchmarks demonstrate the competitive performance of our proposed approach.

  20. [Elements of a better understanding and evaluation of population policy in the Dominican Republic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega, M M

    1974-01-01

    This work has 3 objectives: to clarify the concept of population policy, to examine different theoretical approaches to the analysis of a national population policy, and to describe the origin, development, and present characteristics of the population policy of the Dominican Republic. The concept of population policy is often confused with the related concepts of responsible parenthood, family planning, and birth or population control. Population policy may be defined as a coherent group of declarations, decisions, and actions following a rational strategy which, as part of a national development plan, is formulated and implemented by the state and additional social institutions in accordance with national needs. Its final goal is the protection and development of human resources through influencing population characteristics. Although recent attempts to apply the methods of political analysis to the area of population policy all suffer from limitations, 4 frameworks which respectively look at the 3 levels of population policy (the philosophic-ideologic, the scientific, and the practical); at the division of population policy into declarations, decisions, programs, and results; at criteria for evaluating the probability of success of a population policy; and at the stages of development of population policies in dependent countries can be of assistance in understanding and evaluating the population policy of the Dominican Republic. Until 1961, the end of the Trujillo era, a pronatalist attitude predominated in the Dominican Republic, prompted in part by fears of an aggressive and densely populated Haiti sharing the same island. From 1962-66, a gradual change in attitudes began in the private sector as various groups began quiet efforts at family planning and the Dominican Association for Family Welfare was formed and became an affiliate of the International Planned Parenthood Federation. During this stage the government remained neutral or offered quiet support

  1. A Mathematical Model of Economic Population Dynamics in a Country That Has Optimal Zakat Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subhan, M.

    2018-04-01

    Zakat is the main tools against two issues in Islamic economy: economic justice and helping the poor. However, no government of Islamic countries can solve the economic disparity today. A mathematical model could give some understanding about this phenomenon. The goal of this research is to obtain a mathematical model that can describe the dynamic of economic group population. The research is theoretical based on relevance references. From the analytical and numerical simulation, we conclude that well-manage zakat and full comitment of the wealthy can achieve wealth equilibrium that represents minimum poverty.

  2. Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mantzouni, Irene; Sørensen, Helle; O'Hara, Robert B.

    2010-01-01

    and Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified......Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker...

  3. Temporal dynamics of distinct CA1 cell populations during unconscious state induced by ketamine.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Kuang

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Ketamine is a widely used dissociative anesthetic which can induce some psychotic-like symptoms and memory deficits in some patients during the post-operative period. To understand its effects on neural population dynamics in the brain, we employed large-scale in vivo ensemble recording techniques to monitor the activity patterns of simultaneously recorded hippocampal CA1 pyramidal cells and various interneurons during several conscious and unconscious states such as awake rest, running, slow wave sleep, and ketamine-induced anesthesia. Our analyses reveal that ketamine induces distinct oscillatory dynamics not only in pyramidal cells but also in at least seven different types of CA1 interneurons including putative basket cells, chandelier cells, bistratified cells, and O-LM cells. These emergent unique oscillatory dynamics may very well reflect the intrinsic temporal relationships within the CA1 circuit. It is conceivable that systematic characterization of network dynamics may eventually lead to better understanding of how ketamine induces unconsciousness and consequently alters the conscious mind.

  4. On the stochastic approach to marine population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Ferrandis

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to deepen and structure the statistical basis of marine population dynamics. The starting point is the correspondence between the concepts of mortality, survival and lifetime distribution. This is the kernel of the possibilities that survival analysis techniques offer to marine population dynamics. A rigorous definition of survival and mortality based on their properties and their probabilistic versions is briefly presented. Some well established models for lifetime distribution, which generalise the usual simple exponential distribution, might be used with their corresponding survivals and mortalities. A critical review of some published models is also made, including original models proposed in the way opened by Caddy (1991 and Sparholt (1990, which allow for a continuously decreasing natural mortality. Considering these elements, the pure death process dealt with in the literature is used as a theoretical basis for the evolution of a marine cohort. The elaboration of this process is based on Chiang´s study of the probability distribution of the life table (Chiang, 1960 and provides specific structured models for stock evolution as a Markovian process. These models may introduce new ideas in the line of thinking developed by Gudmundsson (1987 and Sampson (1990 in order to model the evolution of a marine cohort by stochastic processes. The suitable approximation of these processes by means of Gaussian processes may allow theoretical and computational multivariate Gaussian analysis to be applied to the probabilistic treatment of fisheries issues. As a consequence, the necessary catch equation appears as a stochastic integral with respect to the mentioned Markovian process of the stock. The solution of this equation is available when the mortalities are proportional, hence the use of the proportional hazards model (Cox, 1959. The assumption of these proportional mortalities leads naturally to the construction of a

  5. Dynamical evolution of a fictitious population of binary Neptune Trojans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunini, Adrián

    2018-03-01

    We present numerical simulations of the evolution of a synthetic population of Binary Neptune Trojans, under the influence of the solar perturbations and tidal friction (the so-called Kozai cycles and tidal friction evolution). Our model includes the dynamical influence of the four giant planets on the heliocentric orbit of the binary centre of mass. In this paper, we explore the evolution of initially tight binaries around the Neptune L4 Lagrange point. We found that the variation of the heliocentric orbital elements due to the libration around the Lagrange point introduces significant changes in the orbital evolution of the binaries. Collisional processes would not play a significant role in the dynamical evolution of Neptune Trojans. After 4.5 × 109 yr of evolution, ˜50 per cent of the synthetic systems end up separated as single objects, most of them with slow diurnal rotation rate. The final orbital distribution of the surviving binary systems is statistically similar to the one found for Kuiper Belt Binaries when collisional evolution is not included in the model. Systems composed by a primary and a small satellite are more fragile than the ones composed by components of similar sizes.

  6. Evolutionary game dynamics in a growing structured population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poncela, Julia; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Moreno, Yamir [Institute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems (BIFI), University of Zaragoza, E-50009 Zaragoza (Spain); Traulsen, Arne [Emmy-Noether Group for Evolutionary Dynamics, Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology, August-Thienemann-Strasse 2, 24306 Ploen (Germany)], E-mail: traulsen@evolbio.mpg.de

    2009-08-15

    We discuss a model for evolutionary game dynamics in a growing, network-structured population. In our model, new players can either make connections to random preexisting players or preferentially attach to those that have been successful in the past. The latter depends on the dynamics of strategies in the game, which we implement following the so-called Fermi rule such that the limits of weak and strong strategy selection can be explored. Our framework allows to address general evolutionary games. With only two parameters describing the preferential attachment and the intensity of selection, we describe a wide range of network structures and evolutionary scenarios. Our results show that even for moderate payoff preferential attachment, over represented hubs arise. Interestingly, we find that while the networks are growing, high levels of cooperation are attained, but the same network structure does not promote cooperation as a static network. Therefore, the mechanism of payoff preferential attachment is different to those usually invoked to explain the promotion of cooperation in static, already-grown networks.

  7. Evolutionary game dynamics in a growing structured population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poncela, Julia; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Moreno, Yamir; Traulsen, Arne

    2009-01-01

    We discuss a model for evolutionary game dynamics in a growing, network-structured population. In our model, new players can either make connections to random preexisting players or preferentially attach to those that have been successful in the past. The latter depends on the dynamics of strategies in the game, which we implement following the so-called Fermi rule such that the limits of weak and strong strategy selection can be explored. Our framework allows to address general evolutionary games. With only two parameters describing the preferential attachment and the intensity of selection, we describe a wide range of network structures and evolutionary scenarios. Our results show that even for moderate payoff preferential attachment, over represented hubs arise. Interestingly, we find that while the networks are growing, high levels of cooperation are attained, but the same network structure does not promote cooperation as a static network. Therefore, the mechanism of payoff preferential attachment is different to those usually invoked to explain the promotion of cooperation in static, already-grown networks.

  8. Understanding how discrete populations of hypothalamic neurons orchestrate complicated behavioral states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allison eGraebner

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available A major question in systems neuroscience is how a single population of neurons can interact with the rest of the brain to orchestrate complex behavioral states. The hypothalamus contains many such discrete neuronal populations that individually regulate arousal, feeding, and drinking. For example, hypothalamic neurons that express hypocretin (Hcrt neuropeptides can sense homeostatic and metabolic factors affecting wakefulness and orchestrate organismal arousal. Neurons that express agouti-related protein (AgRP can sense the metabolic needs of the body and orchestrate a state of hunger. The organum vasculosum of the lamina terminalis (OVLT can detect the hypertonicity of blood and orchestrate a state of thirst. Each hypothalamic population is sufficient to generate complicated behavioral states through the combined efforts of distinct efferent projections. The principal challenge to understanding these brain systems is therefore to determine the individual roles of each downstream projection for each behavioral state. In recent years, the development and application of temporally precise, genetically encoded tools have greatly improved our understanding of the structure and function of these neural systems. This review will survey recent advances in our understanding of how these individual hypothalamic populations can orchestrate complicated behavioral states due to the combined efforts of individual downstream projections.

  9. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M; Edwards, Thomas C; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M

    2014-12-01

    Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate ( r ) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density ( N ) relate to occurrence probability ( P occ ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with P occ , while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with P occ . Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

  10. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M.

    2014-01-01

    Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions.The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density (N ) relate to occurrence probability (Pocc ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, western USA, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments.Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with Pocc, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with Pocc. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

  11. Evolutionary Dynamics of Collective Action in Structured Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Marta Daniela de Almeida

    The pervasiveness of cooperation in Nature is not easily explained. If evolution is characterized by competition and survival of the fittest, why should selfish individuals cooperate with each other? Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT) provides a suitable mathematical framework to study this problem, central to many areas of science. Conventionally, interactions between individuals are modeled in terms of one-shot, symmetric 2-Person Dilemmas of Cooperation, but many real-life situations involve decisions within groups with more than 2 individuals, which are best-dealt in the framework of N-Person games. In this Thesis, we investigate the evolutionary dynamics of two paradigmatic collective social dilemmas - the N-Person Prisoner's Dilemma (NPD) and the N-Person Snowdrift Game (NSG) on structured populations, modeled by networks with diverse topological properties. Cooperative strategies are just one example of the many traits that can be transmitted on social networks. Several recent studies based on empirical evidence from a medical database have suggested the existence of a 3 degrees of influence rule, according to which not only our "friends", but also our friends' friends, and our friends' friends' friends, have a non-trivial influence on our decisions. We investigate the degree of peer influence that emerges from the spread of cooperative strategies, opinions and diseases on populations with distinct underlying networks of contacts. Our results show that networks naturally entangle individuals into interactions of many-body nature and that for each network class considered different processes lead to identical degrees of influence. None

  12. Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

    2013-01-01

    Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

  13. Population dynamics of caribou herds in southwestern Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Valkenburg

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available The five naturally occurring and one transplanted caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti herd in southwestern Alaska composed about 20% of Alaska's caribou population in 2001. All five of the naturally occurring herds fluctuated considerably in size between the late 1800s and 2001 and for some herds the data provide an indication of long-term periodic (40-50 year fluctuations. At the present time, the Unimak (UCH and Southern Alaska Peninsula (SAP are recovering from population declines, the Northern Alaska Peninsula Herd (NAP appears to be nearing the end of a protracted decline, and the Mulchatna Herd (MCH appears to now be declining after 20 years of rapid growth. The remaining naturally occurring herd (Kilbuck has virtually disappeared. Nutrition had a significant effect on the size of 4-month-old and 10-month-old calves in the NAP and the Nushagak Peninsula Herd (NPCH and probably also on population growth in at least 4 (SAP, NAP, NPCH, and MCH of the six caribou herds in southwestern Alaska. Predation does not appear to be sufficient to keep caribou herds in southwestern Alaska from expanding, probably because rabies is endemic in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes and is periodically transferred to wolves (Canis lupus and other canids. However, we found evidence that pneumonia and hoof rot may result in significant mortality of caribou in southwestern Alaska, whereas there is no evidence that disease is important in the dynamics of Interior herds. Cooperative conservation programs, such as the Kilbuck Caribou Management Plan, can be successful in restraining traditional harvest and promoting growth in caribou herds. In southwestern Alaska we also found evidence that small caribou herds can be swamped and assimilated by large herds, and fidelity to traditional calving areas can be lost.

  14. Modelling multi-pulse population dynamics from ultrafast spectroscopy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luuk J G W van Wilderen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio- physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox that describes the finite bleach (orientation effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective excitation (photoselection and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical

  15. Modelling multi-pulse population dynamics from ultrafast spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wilderen, Luuk J G W; Lincoln, Craig N; van Thor, Jasper J

    2011-03-21

    Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio-) physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function) for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox) that describes the finite bleach (orientation) effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective) excitation (photoselection) and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical modelling is

  16. Phase control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Shi; Wu Jinhui; Gao Jinyue; Pan Chunliu

    2002-01-01

    We use the relative phase of two coherent fields for the control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system. The population inversion and gain with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer are shown as the relative phase is varied. We support our results by numerical calculation and analytical explanation

  17. Population dynamics of mallards breeding in eastern Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugger, Bruce D.; Coluccy, John M.; Dugger, Katie M.; Fox, Trevor T.; Kraege, Donald K.; Petrie, Mark J.

    2016-01-01

    Variation in regional population trends for mallards breeding in the western United States indicates that additional research into factors that influence demographics could contribute to management and understanding the population demographics of mallards across North America. We estimated breeding incidence and adult female, nest, and brood survival in eastern Washington in 2006 and 2007 by monitoring female mallards with radio telemetry and tested how those parameters were influenced by study year (2006 vs. 2007), landscape type (agricultural vs. natural), and age (second year [SY] vs. after second year [ASY]). We also investigated the effects of female body condition and capture date on breeding incidence, and nest initiation date and hatch date on nest and brood survival, respectively. We included population parameters in a stage-based demographic model and conducted a perturbation analysis to identify which vital rates were most influential on population growth rate (λ). Adult female survival was best modeled with a constant weekly survival rate (0.994, SE = 0.003). Breeding incidence differed between years and was higher for birds in better body condition. Nest survival was higher for ASY females (0.276, SE = 0.118) than SY females (0.066, SE = 0.052), and higher on publicly managed lands (0.383, SE = 0.212) than agricultural (0.114, SE = 0.058) landscapes. Brood survival was best modeled with a constant rate for the 7-week monitoring period (0.50, SE = 0.155). The single variable having the greatest influence on λ was non-breeding season survival, but the combination of parameters from the breeding grounds explained a greater percent of the variance in λ. Mallard population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in non-breeding survival, nest success, brood survival, and breeding incidence. Future management decisions should focus on activities that improve these vital rates if managers want to increase the production of

  18. Sensitivity Analysis for Assessing Effects of Tree Population Dynamics on Soil Bioturbation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Y. E.; Johnson, E. A.

    2012-12-01

    Bioturbation due to tree root throw is thought to be an important process in soil production and soil mixing. Despite progress in our understanding of root throw processes, the tree population dynamics affecting the occurrence and timing of root throw events remain much less well explained. Unfortunately, research about forest dynamics is not always undertaken from the perspective of those interested in tree death, tree topple and associated root throw. As a result, the necessary field data about tree population dynamics is often unavailable for many locations. The acquisition of such data would allow for improved interpretation of root throw observations and for incorporation within numerical models of tree root throw occurrence. The present study uses our earlier tree population dynamics model calibrated for subalpine forests in the Canadian Rockies to test the sensitivity of forest parameters within the model that determine tree death, tree topple, root throw and soil bioturbation. Crown wildfire disturbance is the primary driver of tree population dynamics, with wind throw being mainly of local importance. The recruitment and mortality of trees during multiple generations of forest determine the number of live trees on the landscape at any given time. Tree death may occur due to competition/thinning of trees between wildfire events or as a result of the wildfire itself. Unless trees die due to sudden wind throw events (as mentioned above, this is only of local significance in our study area), they remain standing for some time period after tree death and before tree topple; these trees are referred to as standing dead trees. The duration of this time window and several other factors influence if a tree breaks at its base or upheaves a relatively intact root plate with attached sediment. Our field research has also suggested that a minimum dbh is required before a root plate is large enough to upheave notable amounts of sediment. Modelling results in this study

  19. Biobanking for research: a survey of patient population attitudes and understanding

    OpenAIRE

    Rahm, Alanna Kulchak; Wrenn, Michelle; Carroll, Nikki M.; Feigelson, Heather Spencer

    2013-01-01

    Population-based biobanks are a critical resource for genetic research. It is important to know what potential participants understand about the risks and benefits of providing samples in order to ensure adequate informed consent. Kaiser Permanente Colorado (KPCO) is currently planning a biobank where adult members would be asked to contribute an additional tube of blood during a routine blood draw. Adult KPCO members in clinic waiting rooms were asked to read an informational brochure and in...

  20. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Tanya L.; Lwetoijera, Dickson W.; Knols, Bart G. J.; Takken, Willem; Killeen, Gerry F.; Ferguson, Heather M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in phenotypic traits predict the dynamics of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes, the most important vectors of human malaria. Anopheles gambiae dynamics were monitored over a six-month period of seasonal growth and decline. The population exhibited density-dependent feedback, with the carrying capacity being modified by rainfall (97% wAICc support). The individual phenotypic expression of the maternal (p = 0.0001) and current (p = 0.040) body size positively influenced population growth. Our field-based evidence uniquely demonstrates that individual fitness can have population-level impacts and, furthermore, can mitigate the impact of exogenous drivers (e.g. rainfall) in species whose reproduction depends upon it. Once frontline interventions have suppressed mosquito densities, attempts to eliminate malaria with supplementary vector control tools may be attenuated by increased population growth and individual fitness. PMID:21389034

  1. Impacts of environmental variability on desiccation rate, plastic responses and population dynamics of Glossina pallidipes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleynhans, E; Clusella-Trullas, S; Terblanche, J S

    2014-02-01

    Physiological responses to transient conditions may result in costly responses with little fitness benefits, and therefore, a trade-off must exist between the speed of response and the duration of exposure to new conditions. Here, using the puparia of an important insect disease vector, Glossina pallidipes, we examine this potential trade-off using a novel combination of an experimental approach and a population dynamics model. Specifically, we explore and dissect the interactions between plastic physiological responses, treatment-duration and -intensity using an experimental approach. We then integrate these experimental results from organismal water-balance data and their plastic responses into a population dynamics model to examine the potential relative fitness effects of simulated transient weather conditions on population growth rates. The results show evidence for the predicted trade-off for plasticity of water loss rate (WLR) and the duration of new environmental conditions. When altered environmental conditions lasted for longer durations, physiological responses could match the new environmental conditions, and this resulted in a lower WLR and lower rates of population decline. At shorter time-scales however, a mismatch between acclimation duration and physiological responses was reflected by reduced overall population growth rates. This may indicate a potential fitness cost due to insufficient time for physiological adjustments to take place. The outcomes of this work therefore suggest plastic water balance responses have both costs and benefits, and these depend on the time-scale and magnitude of variation in environmental conditions. These results are significant for understanding the evolution of plastic physiological responses and changes in population abundance in the context of environmental variability. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  2. Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

    2017-01-01

    There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

  3. Microscopic dynamics in simple liquids: a clue to understanding the basic thermodynamics of the liquid state

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabrillo, C; Bermejo, F J; Maira-Vidal, A; Fernandez-Perea, R; Bennington, S M; Martin, D

    2004-01-01

    The advent of inelastic x-ray scattering techniques has prompted a reawakened interest in the dynamics of simple liquids. Such studies are often carried out using simplified models to account for the stochastic dynamics that give rise to quasielastic scattering. The vibrational and diffusive dynamics of molten potassium are studied here by an experiment using neutron scattering and are shown to provide some clues to understand the basic thermodynamics of the liquid state. The findings reported here suggest ways in which the true complementarity of neutron and x-ray scattering may be profitably exploited

  4. Population dynamics of Borrelia burgdorferi in Lyme disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Christoph Binder

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Many chronic inflammatory diseases are known to be caused by persistent bacterial or viral infections. A well-studied example is the tick-borne infection by the gram-negative Spirochaetes of the genus Borrelia in humans and other mammals, causing severe symptoms of chronic inflammation and subsequent tissue damage (Lyme Disease, particularly in large joints and the central nervous system, but also in the heart and other tissues of untreated patients. Although killed efficiently by human phagocytic cells in vitro, Borrelia exhibits a remarkably high infectivity in mice and men. In experimentally infected mice, the first immune response almost clears the infection. However, approximately one week post infection, the bacterial population recovers and reaches an even larger size before entering the chronic phase. We developed a mathematical model describing the bacterial growth and the immune response against Borrelia burgdorferi in the C3H mouse strain that has been established as an experimental model for Lyme disease. The peculiar dynamics of the infection exclude two possible mechanistic explanations for the regrowth of the almost cleared bacteria. Neither the hypothesis of bacterial dissemination to different tissue nor a limitation of phagocytic capacity were compatible with experiment. The mathematical model predicts that Borrelia recovers from the strong initial immune response by the regrowth of an immune-resistant sub-population of the bacteria. The chronic phase appears as an equilibration of bacterial growth and adaptive immunity. This result has major implications for the development of the chronic phase of Borrelia infections as well as on potential protective clinical interventions.

  5. The type VI secretion system impacts bacterial invasion and population dynamics in a model intestinal microbiota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Savannah L.; Shields, Drew S.; Hammer, Brian K.; Xavier, Joao B.; Parthasarathy, Raghuveer

    Animal gastrointestinal tracts are home to a diverse community of microbes. The mechanisms by which microbial species interact and compete in this dense, physically dynamic space are poorly understood, limiting our understanding of how natural communities are assembled and how different communities could be engineered. Here, we focus on a physical mechanism for competition: the type VI secretion system (T6SS). The T6SS is a syringe-like organelle used by certain bacteria to translocate effector proteins across the cell membranes of target bacterial cells, killing them. Here, we use T6SS+ and T6SS- strains of V. cholerae, the pathogen that causes cholera in humans, and light sheet fluorescence microscopy for in vivo imaging to show that the T6SS provides an advantage to strains colonizing the larval zebrafish gut. Furthermore, we show that T6SS+ bacteria can invade and alter an existing population of a different species in the zebrafish gut, reducing its abundance and changing the form of its population dynamics. This work both demonstrates a mechanism for altering the gut microbiota with an invasive species and explores the processes controlling the stability and dynamics of the gut ecosystem. Research Corporation, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and the Simons Foundation.

  6. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

    2015-04-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  7. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  8. Modeling population dynamics of solitary bees in relation to habitat quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ulbrich

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available To understand associations between habitat, individual behaviour, and population development of solitary bees we developed an individual-based model. This model is based on field observations of Osmia rufa (L (Apoideae: Megachilidae and describes population dynamics of solitary bees. Model rules are focused on maternal investment, in particular on the female’s individual decisions about sex and size of progeny. In the present paper, we address the effect of habitat quality on population size and sex ratio. We examine how food availability and the risk of parasitism influence long-term population development. It can be shown how population properties result from individual maternal investment which is described as a functional response to fluctuations of environmental conditions. We found that habitat quality can be expressed in terms of cell construction time. This interface factor influences the rate of open cell parasitism as the risk for a brood cell to be parasitized is positively correlated with the time of its construction. Under conditions of scarce food and under resulting long provision times even low parasitism rates lead to a high extinction risk of the population, whereas in rich habitats probabilities of extinction are low even for high rates of parasitism. For a given level of food and parasitism there is an optimum time for cell construction which minimizes the extinction risk of the population. Model results demonstrate that under fluctuating environmental conditions, decreasing habitat quality leads to a decrease in population size but also to rapid shifts in sex ratio.

  9. Living in the branches: population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, E.H.C.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

    2007-01-01

    Spatial structure regulates and modifies processes at several levels of ecological organization (e.g. individual/genetic, population and community) and is thus a key component of complex systems, where knowledge at a small scale can be insufficient for understanding system behaviour at a larger scale. Recent syntheses outline potential applications of network theory to ecological systems, but do not address the implications of physical structure for network dynamics. There is a specific need to examine how dendritic habitat structure, such as that found in stream, hedgerow and cave networks, influences ecological processes. Although dendritic networks are one type of ecological network, they are distinguished by two fundamental characteristics: (1) both the branches and the nodes serve as habitat, and (2) the specific spatial arrangement and hierarchical organization of these elements interacts with a species' movement behaviour to alter patterns of population distribution and abundance, and community interactions. Here, we summarize existing theory relating to ecological dynamics in dendritic networks, review empirical studies examining the population- and community-level consequences of these networks, and suggest future research integrating spatial pattern and processes in dendritic systems.

  10. A Stochastic Framework for Modeling the Population Dynamics of Convective Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagos, Samson; Feng, Zhe; Plant, Robert S.; Houze, Robert A.; Xiao, Heng

    2018-02-01

    A stochastic prognostic framework for modeling the population dynamics of convective clouds and representing them in climate models is proposed. The framework follows the nonequilibrium statistical mechanical approach to constructing a master equation for representing the evolution of the number of convective cells of a specific size and their associated cloud-base mass flux, given a large-scale forcing. In this framework, referred to as STOchastic framework for Modeling Population dynamics of convective clouds (STOMP), the evolution of convective cell size is predicted from three key characteristics of convective cells: (i) the probability of growth, (ii) the probability of decay, and (iii) the cloud-base mass flux. STOMP models are constructed and evaluated against CPOL radar observations at Darwin and convection permitting model (CPM) simulations. Multiple models are constructed under various assumptions regarding these three key parameters and the realisms of these models are evaluated. It is shown that in a model where convective plumes prefer to aggregate spatially and the cloud-base mass flux is a nonlinear function of convective cell area, the mass flux manifests a recharge-discharge behavior under steady forcing. Such a model also produces observed behavior of convective cell populations and CPM simulated cloud-base mass flux variability under diurnally varying forcing. In addition to its use in developing understanding of convection processes and the controls on convective cell size distributions, this modeling framework is also designed to serve as a nonequilibrium closure formulations for spectral mass flux parameterizations.

  11. Level of understanding of Alzheimer disease among caregivers and the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorge, C; Cetó, M; Arias, A; Blasco, E; Gil, M P; López, R; Dakterzada, F; Purroy, F; Piñol-Ripoll, G

    2018-05-11

    Understanding of Alzheimer disease is fundamental for early diagnosis and to reduce caregiver burden. The objective of this study is to evaluate the degree of understanding of Alzheimer disease among informal caregivers and different segments of the general population through the Alzheimer's Disease Knowledge Scale. We assessed the knowledge of caregivers in different follow-up periods (less than one year, between 1 and 5 years, and over 5 years since diagnosis) and individuals from the general population. Alzheimer's Disease Knowledge Scale scores were grouped into different items: life impact, risk factors, symptoms, diagnosis, treatment, disease progression, and caregiving. A total of 419 people (215 caregivers and 204 individuals from the general population) were included in the study. No significant differences were found between groups for overall Alzheimer's Disease Knowledge Scale score (19.1 vs. 18.8, P = .9). There is a scarce knowledge of disease risk factors (49.3%) or the care needed (51.2%), while symptoms (78.6%) and course of the disease (77.2%) were the best understood aspects. Older caregiver age was correlated with worse Alzheimer's Disease Knowledge Scale scores overall and for life impact, symptoms, treatment, and disease progression (P < .05). Time since diagnosis improved caregivers' knowledge of Alzheimer disease symptoms (P = .00) and diagnosis (P = .05). Assessing the degree of understanding of Alzheimer disease is essential to the development of health education strategies both in the general population and among caregivers. Copyright © 2018 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. Understanding spatial connectivity of individuals with non-uniform population density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pu; González, Marta C

    2009-08-28

    We construct a two-dimensional geometric graph connecting individuals placed in space within a given contact distance. The individuals are distributed using a measured country's density of population. We observe that while large clusters (group of individuals connected) emerge within some regions, they are trapped in detached urban areas owing to the low population density of the regions bordering them. To understand the emergence of a giant cluster that connects the entire population, we compare the empirical geometric graph with the one generated by placing the same number of individuals randomly in space. We find that, for small contact distances, the empirical distribution of population dominates the growth of connected components, but no critical percolation transition is observed in contrast to the graph generated by a random distribution of population. Our results show that contact distances from real-world situations as for WIFI and Bluetooth connections drop in a zone where a fully connected cluster is not observed, hinting that human mobility must play a crucial role in contact-based diseases and wireless viruses' large-scale spreading.

  13. Variation in the local population dynamics of the short-lived Opuntia macrorhiza (Cactaceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haridas, C V; Keeler, Kathleen H; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

    2015-03-01

    Spatiotemporal variation in demographic rates can have profound effects for population persistence, especially for dispersal-limited species living in fragmented landscapes. Long-term studies of plants in such habitats help with understanding the impacts of fragmentation on population persistence but such studies are rare. In this work, we reanalyzed demographic data from seven years of the short-lived cactus Opuntia macrorhiza var. macrorhiza at five plots in Boulder, Colorado. Previous work combining data from all years and all plots predicted a stable population (deterministic log lamda approximately 0). This approach assumed that all five plots were part of a single population. Since the plots were located in a suburban-agricultural interface separated by highways, grazing lands, and other barriers, and O. macrorhiza is likely dispersal limited, we analyzed the dynamics of each plot separately using stochastic matrix models assuming each plot represented a separate population. We found that the stochastic population growth rate log lamdaS varied widely between populations (log lamdaS = 0.1497, 0.0774, -0.0230, -0.2576, -0.4989). The three populations with the highest growth rates were located close together in space, while the two most isolated populations had the lowest growth rates suggesting that dispersal between populations is critical for the population viability of O. macrorhiza. With one exception, both our prospective (stochastic elasticity) and retrospective (stochastic life table response experiments) analysis suggested that means of stasis and growth, especially of smaller plants, were most important for population growth rate. This is surprising because recruitment is typically the most important vital rate in a short-lived species such as O. macrorhiza. We found that elasticity to the variance was mostly negligible, suggesting that O. macrorhiza populations are buffered against large temporal variation. Finally, single-year elasticities to means

  14. Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes and associated damage to potato

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schans, J.

    1993-01-01

    Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes (PCN; Globoderarostochiensis (Woll.) Skarbilovich and G. pallida Stone) and their interactions with potato plants are insufficiently understood to explain variations of population

  15. Understanding Conflict Dynamics: A Comparative Analysis of Ethno-Separatist Conflicts in India and the Philippines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reed, A.G.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis is a comparative analysis of three contemporary separatist conflicts in Asia: The Naga Insurgency, the Punjab Crisis and the Moro Rebellion. The objective of this thesis is the understanding of conflict dynamics: how and why conflicts escalate or de-escalate over time. Previous research

  16. Computer Assisted Comprehension of Distant Worlds: Understanding Hunger Dynamics in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moseley, William G.

    2001-01-01

    Describes a computer program called RiskMap. Explains that after completing an assignment on rural economics and hunger dynamics in Africa, students showed an increased level of understanding and felt that using RiskMap was helpful in learning the material. Includes references. (DAJ)

  17. Dynamic Graphics in Excel for Teaching Statistics: Understanding the Probability Density Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coll-Serrano, Vicente; Blasco-Blasco, Olga; Alvarez-Jareno, Jose A.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we show a dynamic graphic in Excel that is used to introduce an important concept in our subject, Statistics I: the probability density function. This interactive graphic seeks to facilitate conceptual understanding of the main aspects analysed by the learners.

  18. Biometrics Technology: Understanding Dynamics Influencing Adoption for Control of Identification Deception within Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nwatu, Gideon U.

    2011-01-01

    One of the objectives of any government is the establishment of an effective solution to significantly control crime. Identity fraud in Nigeria has generated global attention and negative publicity toward its citizens. The research problem addressed in this study was the lack of understanding of the dynamics that influenced the adoption and…

  19. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  20. Coherent population dynamics of a three-level atom in spacetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Netz, R.; Sauerbrey, R.; Feurer, T.; Roberts, G.

    2002-01-01

    This work explores temporal and spatial aspects of coherent population transfer in a three-level atom through a synergic combination of experimental measurements and theoretical calculations. Experimental measurements exploit the broad bandwidth of a femtosecond laser pulse to initiate simultaneous excitation of the 5p 2 P 1/2 2 S 1/2 and 5p 2 P 3/2 2 S 1/2 components of the doublet line of atomic rubidium. By adjusting positive or negative frequency sweeps the pump pulse favors either one of the two transitions and eventually even decouples the two excited states. The population of the excited spin-orbit levels is monitored in real time by stimulated emission probing under conditions of different intensity, chirp, and pulse width of the driving field, giving detailed information on the coupling between the three levels and their interactions with the driving and probe fields at different points in spacetime. Both pump and probe pulses are carefully characterized after the interaction region by frequency-resolved optical gating. In order to interpret and understand the experimental results it is essential to consider the close relationship between pulse propagation and time evolution of the atomic system via the coupled Maxwell-Bloch equations. This analysis highlights the importance of spatial propagation of the light fields, as well as their temporal dependence, in understanding the dynamical population evolution, and quantitatively reproduces all aspects of the experimental measurements

  1. Population, Environment, and Climate in the Albertine Rift: Understanding Local Impacts of Regional Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartter, J.; Ryan, S. J.; Diem, J.; Palace, M. W.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is of critical concern for conservation and to develop appropriate policies and responses, it is important not only to anticipate the nature of changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local people. The Albertine Rift in East Africa is one of the most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense settlement, extreme poverty, and land conversion. We synthesize ongoing NSF-CNH research, where Ugandan park landscapes are examined to understand the impacts of climate change on livelihoods. Kibale National Park, the main study site, exemplifies the challenges facing many parks because of its isolation within a densely populated agricultural landscape. Three separate household surveys (n=251, 130, 100) reveal that the most perceived benefits provided by Kibale were ecosystem services and farmers cite rainfall as one of the park's most important benefits, but are also concerned with variable precipitation. Analysis of 30+ years of daily rainfall station data shows total rainfall has not changed significantly, but timing and transitions of seasons and intra-seasonal distribution are highly variable, which may contribute to changes in farming schedules and threaten food security. Further, the contrast between land use/cover change over 25 years around the park and the stability of forest within the park underscores the need to understand this landscape for future sustainability planning and the inevitable population growth outside its boundaries. Understanding climate change impacts and feedbacks to and from socio-ecological systems are important to address the dual challenge of biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation.

  2. Restoration of oyster reefs in an estuarine lake: population dynamics and shell accretion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas, Sandra M.; La Peyre, Jerome F.; La Peyre, Megan K.

    2015-01-01

    Restoration activities inherently depend on understanding the spatial and temporal variation in basic demographic rates of the species of interest. For species that modify and maintain their own habitat such as the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica, understanding demographic rates and their impacts on population and habitat success are crucial to ensuring restoration success. We measured oyster recruitment, density, size distribution, biomass, mortality and Perkinsus marinus infection intensity quarterly for 3 yr on shallow intertidal reefs created with shell cultch in March 2009. All reefs were located within Sister Lake, LA. Reefs were placed in pairs at 3 different locations within the lake; pairs were placed in low and medium energy sites within each location. Restored reefs placed within close proximity (biomass (>14.6 kg m-2) at the end of 3 yr. Shell accretion, on average, exceeded estimated rates required to keep pace with local subsidence and shell loss. Variation in recruitment, growth and survival drives local site-specific population success, which highlights the need to understand local water quality, hydrodynamics, and metapopulation dynamics when planning restoration.

  3. What an understanding of the dynamics of gossip has to teach about group dynamics and group leadership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gans, Jerome S

    2014-01-01

    Although what transpires in group therapy is not gossip per se-except perhaps when absent or former members are discussed-listening to group interaction through an understanding of the dynamics of gossip can contribute to a greater appreciation of group dynamics and group leadership as well as enlarge therapeutic space. After examining the interpersonal dynamics of gossip, this paper discusses six ways in which an understanding of these dynamics can inform group leadership and shed light on group psychotherapy. Central features of gossip that appear in group interactions are explored: These include projection, displacement, self-esteem regulation, clarification of motivation, unself-consciousness, social comparison and bonding, avoidance of psychic pain, and making the ego-syntonic dystonic. The lively use of imagination in the mature phase of group therapy is conceived of as the time when the darker side of human nature-imagined gossip harnessed for therapeutic purposes-can be welcomed in and processed in a kind, playful, and compassionate manner.

  4. Death and population dynamics affect mutation rate estimates and evolvability under stress in bacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frenoy, Antoine; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

    2018-05-01

    The stress-induced mutagenesis hypothesis postulates that in response to stress, bacteria increase their genome-wide mutation rate, in turn increasing the chances that a descendant is able to better withstand the stress. This has implications for antibiotic treatment: exposure to subinhibitory doses of antibiotics has been reported to increase bacterial mutation rates and thus probably the rate at which resistance mutations appear and lead to treatment failure. More generally, the hypothesis posits that stress increases evolvability (the ability of a population to generate adaptive genetic diversity) and thus accelerates evolution. Measuring mutation rates under stress, however, is problematic, because existing methods assume there is no death. Yet subinhibitory stress levels may induce a substantial death rate. Death events need to be compensated by extra replication to reach a given population size, thus providing more opportunities to acquire mutations. We show that ignoring death leads to a systematic overestimation of mutation rates under stress. We developed a system based on plasmid segregation that allows us to measure death and division rates simultaneously in bacterial populations. Using this system, we found that a substantial death rate occurs at the tested subinhibitory concentrations previously reported to increase mutation rate. Taking this death rate into account lowers and sometimes removes the signal for stress-induced mutagenesis. Moreover, even when antibiotics increase mutation rate, we show that subinhibitory treatments do not increase genetic diversity and evolvability, again because of effects of the antibiotics on population dynamics. We conclude that antibiotic-induced mutagenesis is overestimated because of death and that understanding evolvability under stress requires accounting for the effects of stress on population dynamics as much as on mutation rate. Our goal here is dual: we show that population dynamics and, in particular, the

  5. Dynamic use of geoscience information to develop scientific understanding for a nuclear waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, N.G.W.; Tsang, C.F.

    1990-01-01

    The development and safety evaluation of a nuclear waste geologic repository require a proper scientific understanding of the site response. Such scientific understanding depends on information from a number of geoscience disciplines, including geology, geophysics, geochemistry, geomechanics and hydrogeology. The information comes in four stages: (1) general regional survey data base, (2) surface-based testing, (3) exploratory shaft testing, and (4) repository construction and evaluation. A discussion is given on the dynamic use of the information through the different stages. We point out the need for abstracting, deriving and updating a quantitative spatial and process model (QSPM) to develop a scientific understanding of site responses as a crucial element in the dynamic procedure. 2 figs

  6. Hydrologic variability governs population dynamics of a vulnerable amphibian in an arid environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin R Zylstra

    Full Text Available Dynamics of many amphibian populations are governed by the distribution and availability of water. Therefore, understanding the hydrological mechanisms that explain spatial and temporal variation in occupancy and abundance will improve our ability to conserve and recover populations of vulnerable amphibians. We used 16 years of survey data from intermittent mountain streams in the Sonoran Desert to evaluate how availability of surface water affected survival and adult recruitment of a threatened amphibian, the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis. Across the entire study period, monthly survival of adults ranged from 0.72 to 0.99 during summer and 0.59 to 0.94 during winter and increased with availability of surface water (Z = 7.66; P < 0.01. Recruitment of frogs into the adult age class occurred primarily during winter and ranged from 1.9 to 3.8 individuals/season/pool; like survival, recruitment increased with availability of surface water (Z = 3.67; P < 0.01. Although abundance of frogs varied across seasons and years, we found no evidence of a systematic trend during the 16-year study period. Given the strong influence of surface water on population dynamics of leopard frogs, conservation of many riparian obligates in this and similar arid regions likely depends critically on minimizing threats to structures and ecosystem processes that maintain surface waters. Understanding the influence of surface-water availability on riparian organisms is particularly important because climate change is likely to decrease precipitation and increase ambient temperatures in desert riparian systems, both of which have the potential to alter fundamentally the hydrology of these systems.

  7. Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Bressloff, Paul C.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand

  8. Geographic coupling of juvenile and adult habitat shapes spatial population dynamics of a coral reef fish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbers, C.M.; Nagelekerken, I.; Debrot, A.O.; Jongejans, E.

    2013-01-01

    Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived

  9. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    populations of fruit flies is not primarily driven by new mutations, but rather by changes in the frequency of ..... Drift simulation: The sex ratio, total population size and ...... Gillespie J. H. 1994a Substitution processes in molecular evolution. II.

  10. On the apllication of single specie dynamic population model | Iguda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Method of mathematical models of Malthus and Verhults were applied on ten years data collected from Magaram Poultry Farm to determine the nature of population growth, population decay or constant ... Keywords: Birth rate, sustainable population, overcrowding, harvesting, independent t-test and one way Anova.

  11. Challenges in microbial ecology: Building predictive understanding of community function and dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Widder, Stefanie; Allen, Rosalind J.; Pfeiffer, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    The importance of microbial communities (MCs) cannot be overstated. MCs underpin the biogeochemical cycles of the earth's soil, oceans and the atmosphere, and perform ecosystem functions that impact plants, animals and humans. Yet our ability to predict and manage the function of these highly...... complex, dynamically changing communities is limited. Building predictive models that link MC composition to function is a key emerging challenge in microbial ecology. Here, we argue that addressing this challenge requires close coordination of experimental data collection and method development...... is needed to achieve significant progress in our understanding of MC dynamics and function, and we make specific practical suggestions as to how this could be achieved....

  12. Population dynamics, delta vulnerability and environmental change: comparison of the Mekong, Ganges–Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo, S.; Brondizio, E.; Renaud, F.G.; Hetrick, S.; Nicholls, R.; Matthews, Z.; Tessler, Z; Tejedor, A; Sebesvari, Z; Foufoula-Georgiou, E; da Costa, S; Dearing, J.A.

    2016-01-01

    Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient pol...

  13. Host–virus dynamics and subcellular controls of cell fate in a natural coccolithophore population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vardi, Assaf; Haramaty, Liti; Van Mooy, Benjamin A. S.; Fredricks, Helen F.; Kimmance, Susan A.; Larsen, Aud; Bidle, Kay D.

    2012-01-01

    Marine viruses are major evolutionary and biogeochemical drivers in marine microbial foodwebs. However, an in-depth understanding of the cellular mechanisms and the signal transduction pathways mediating host–virus interactions during natural bloom dynamics has remained elusive. We used field-based mesocosms to examine the “arms race” between natural populations of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi and its double-stranded DNA-containing coccolithoviruses (EhVs). Specifically, we examined the dynamics of EhV infection and its regulation of cell fate over the course of bloom development and demise using a diverse suite of molecular tools and in situ fluorescent staining to target different levels of subcellular resolution. We demonstrate the concomitant induction of reactive oxygen species, caspase-specific activity, metacaspase expression, and programmed cell death in response to the accumulation of virus-derived glycosphingolipids upon infection of natural E. huxleyi populations. These subcellular responses to viral infection simultaneously resulted in the enhanced production of transparent exopolymer particles, which can facilitate aggregation and stimulate carbon flux. Our results not only corroborate the critical role for glycosphingolipids and programmed cell death in regulating E. huxleyi–EhV interactions, but also elucidate promising molecular biomarkers and lipid-based proxies for phytoplankton host–virus interactions in natural systems. PMID:23134731

  14. Impact of forestry practices at a landscape scale on the dynamics of amphibian populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Elizabeth B; Patrick, David A; Gibbs, James P

    2015-12-01

    Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma opacum, A. talpoideum, and A. maculatum) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clearcut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in amphibian populations in the United States should focus not on questions of landscape-scale extinction but on the ecological consequences of dramatic reductions in amphibian biomass, including changes in trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and energy transfer. Additionally, we conclude that amphibian declines and extinctions are far more likely to occur as a result of permanent habitat loss resulting from development than from the temporary degradation of habitat caused by current forestry practices.

  15. Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Alicia M.; Garcia, Andres J.; Focks, Dana A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

    2011-01-01

    Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority. PMID:21813844

  16. Dynamic of population-dynamics in a medically important snail species Lymnaea (Radix Luteola (Lamarck

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. K. Misra

    1993-09-01

    Full Text Available The life-cycle parameters of the snail Lymnaea (Radix luteola and the factors influencing the same have been studied under laboratory conditions. Ins each month, from July 1990 to June 1991, a batch of 100 zero-day old individual were considered for studies. The snails of April batch survived for 19.42 days while those in December batch survived for 87.45 days. The May batch individual though survived for 65.67 days gained maximum shell size (15.84 mm in length and body weight (419.87 mg. All individuals of April batch died prior to attainment of sexual maturity. In the remaining 11 batches the snails became sexually mature between 32 and 53 days. At this stage, they were with varying shell lengths, 9.3 mm to 13,11 mm in respect to batches. The reproduction period varied from 1-67 days. An individual laid, on an average, 0,25 (March batch to 443.67 (May batch eggs in its life-span. A batch of such snails would leave 24312, 22520, 720268, 80408, 76067, 418165, 214, 9202, 0, 0, 2459386 and 127894 individuals at the end of 352nd day. Since the environmental conditions were almost similar the 'dynamic' of population dynamics seems to be involved with the 'strain' of the snail individuals of the batches concerned.

  17. Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerio Bartolino

    Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.

  18. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-01-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan

  19. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  20. Geophysical fluid dynamics understanding (almost) everything with rotating shallow water models

    CERN Document Server

    Zeitlin, Vladimir

    2018-01-01

    The book explains the key notions and fundamental processes in the dynamics of the fluid envelopes of the Earth (transposable to other planets), and methods of their analysis, from the unifying viewpoint of rotating shallow-water model (RSW). The model, in its one- or two-layer versions, plays a distinguished role in geophysical fluid dynamics, having been used for around a century for conceptual understanding of various phenomena, for elaboration of approaches and methods, to be applied later in more complete models, for development and testing of numerical codes and schemes of data assimilations, and many other purposes. Principles of modelling of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic flows, and corresponding approximations, are explained and it is shown how single- and multi-layer versions of RSW arise from the primitive equations by vertical averaging, and how further time-averaging produces celebrated quasi-geostrophic reductions of the model. Key concepts of geophysical fluid dynamics are exposed and inte...

  1. Young children’s understanding of angles in a dynamic geometry environment

    OpenAIRE

    Kaur, Harpreet

    2017-01-01

    Angle is an important topic in geometry. It is a concept that children find challenging to learn, in part because of its multifaceted nature. The purpose of this study is to understand how children’s thinking about angles evolves as they participate in a classroom setting featuring the use of a dynamic geometry environment (DGE) in which the concept of angle as turn was privileged, a concept that does not require a quantitative dimension. Three research questions were proposed for the study, ...

  2. Intraspecific Competition and Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paixão, C. A.; Charret, I. C.; Lima, R. R.

    2012-04-01

    We report computational simulations for the evolution of the population of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The results suggest that controlling the mosquito population, on the basis of intraspecific competition at the larval stage, can be an efficient mechanism for controlling the spread of the epidemic. The results also show the presence of a kind of genetic evolution in vector population, which results mainly in increasing the average lifespan of individuals in adulthood.

  3. Combined Population Dynamics and Entropy Modelling Supports Patient Stratification in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brehme, Marc; Koschmieder, Steffen; Montazeri, Maryam; Copland, Mhairi; Oehler, Vivian G.; Radich, Jerald P.; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Schuppert, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Modelling the parameters of multistep carcinogenesis is key for a better understanding of cancer progression, biomarker identification and the design of individualized therapies. Using chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) as a paradigm for hierarchical disease evolution we show that combined population dynamic modelling and CML patient biopsy genomic analysis enables patient stratification at unprecedented resolution. Linking CD34+ similarity as a disease progression marker to patient-derived gene expression entropy separated established CML progression stages and uncovered additional heterogeneity within disease stages. Importantly, our patient data informed model enables quantitative approximation of individual patients’ disease history within chronic phase (CP) and significantly separates “early” from “late” CP. Our findings provide a novel rationale for personalized and genome-informed disease progression risk assessment that is independent and complementary to conventional measures of CML disease burden and prognosis.

  4. An introduction to mathematical population dynamics along the trail of Volterra and Lotka

    CERN Document Server

    Iannelli, Mimmo

    2014-01-01

    This book is an introduction to mathematical biology for students with no experience in biology, but who have some mathematical background. The work is focused on population dynamics and ecology, following a tradition that goes back to Lotka and Volterra, and includes a part devoted to the spread of infectious diseases, a field where mathematical modeling is extremely popular. These themes are used as the area where to understand different types of mathematical modeling and the possible meaning of qualitative agreement of modeling with data. The book also includes a collections of problems designed to approach more advanced questions. This material has been used in the courses at the University of Trento, directed at students in their fourth year of studies in Mathematics. It can also be used as a reference as it provides up-to-date developments in several areas.

  5. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  6. High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2013-06-01

    Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

  7. Water-level fluctuations and metapopulation dynamics as drivers of genetic diversity in populations of three Tanganyikan cichlid fish species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevado, B; Mautner, S; Sturmbauer, C; Verheyen, E

    2013-08-01

    Understanding how genetic variation is generated and maintained in natural populations, and how this process unfolds in a changing environment, remains a central issue in biological research. In this work, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity from several populations of three cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika in parallel, using the mitochondrial DNA control region. We sampled populations inhabiting the littoral rocky habitats in both very deep and very shallow areas of the lake. We hypothesized that the former would constitute relatively older, more stable and genetically more diverse populations, because they should have been less severely affected by the well-documented episodes of dramatic water-level fluctuations. In agreement with our predictions, populations of all three species sampled in very shallow shorelines showed traces of stronger population growth than populations of the same species inhabiting deep shorelines. However, contrary to our working hypothesis, we found a significant trend towards increased genetic diversity in the younger, demographically less stable populations inhabiting shallow areas, in comparison with the older and more stable populations inhabiting the deep shorelines. We interpret this finding as the result of the establishment of metapopulation dynamics in the former shorelines, by the frequent perturbation and reshuffling of individuals between populations due to the lake-level fluctuations. The repeated succession of periods of allopatric separation and secondary contact is likely to have further increased the rapid pace of speciation in lacustrine cichlids. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Effects of Nano-Titanium Dioxide on Freshwater Algal Population Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulacki, Konrad J.; Cardinale, Bradley J.

    2012-01-01

    To make predictions about the possible effects of nanomaterials across environments and taxa, toxicity testing must incorporate not only a variety of organisms and endpoints, but also an understanding of the mechanisms that underlie nanoparticle toxicity. Here, we report the results of a laboratory experiment in which we examined how titanium dioxide nanoparticles impact the population dynamics and production of biomass across a range of freshwater algae. We exposed 10 of the most common species of North American freshwater pelagic algae (phytoplankton) to five increasing concentrations of n-TiO2 (ranging from controls to 300 mg n-TiO2 L−1). We then examined the effects of n-TiO2 on the population growth rates and biomass production of each algal species over a period of 25 days. On average, increasing concentrations of n-TiO2 had no significant effects on algal growth rates (p = 0.376), even though there was considerable species-specific variation in responses. In contrast, exposure to n-TiO2 tended to increase maximum biomass achieved by species in culture (p = 0.06). Results suggest that titanium dioxide nanoparticles could influence certain aspects of population growth of freshwater phytoplankton, though effects are unlikely at environmentally relevant concentrations. PMID:23071735

  9. Dynamic energy budgets in population ecotoxicology: applications and outlook.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager, T.; Barsi, A.; Hamda, N.T.; Martin, B.; Zimmer, E.I.; Ducrot, V.

    2014-01-01

    Most of the experimental testing in ecotoxicology takes place at the individual level, but the protection goals for environmental risk assessment are at the population level (or higher). Population modelling can fill this gap, but only models on a mechanistic basis allow for extrapolation beyond the

  10. Demographic processes in a local population: seasonal dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... differences in daily recruitment and within-patch survival rates. Males were most abundant relative to females early in the season, indicating protandry. Total adult population size was small and showed dramatic variation between the two years, indicating how vulnerable the local population is to demographic extinction.

  11. Dynamics of buckbrush populations under simulated forest restoration alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

    2008-01-01

    Plant population models are valuable tools for assessing ecological tradeoffs between forest management approaches. In addition, these models can provide insight on plant life history patterns and processes important for persistence and recovery of populations in changing environments. In this study, we evaluated a set of ecological restoration alternatives for their...

  12. Population Dynamics and Natural Resources in the Volta in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Also, population growth is causing shortfalls in agricultural land, deforestation and high demand on water resources in some of the sub-basins of the Volta River Keywords: Population, Natural resources, Volta River Basin, Human Settlement Land Use/Coverage Change Ghana Journal of Development Studies Vol.

  13. Termite Population Dynamics in Arenic Kandiudults as Influenced by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Result shows that carbofuran significantly (P=<0.0001) recorded least termite population per square meter after tuber harvest, whereas A. indica leaves and municipal waste increased termite population per square meter. Also, cassava tuber yield was significantly influenced with application of A. indica leaves and ...

  14. Fish and fire: Post-wildfire sediment dynamics and implications for the viability of trout populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, B. P.; Czuba, J. A.; Belmont, P.; Budy, P.; Finch, C.

    2017-12-01

    Episodic events in steep landscapes, such as wildfire and mass wasting, contribute large pulses of sediment to rivers and can significantly alter the quality and connectivity of fish habitat. Understanding where these sediment inputs occur, how they are transported and processed through the watershed, and their geomorphic effect on the river network is critical to predicting the impact on ecological aquatic communities. The Tushar Mountains of southern Utah experienced a severe wildfire in 2010, resulting in numerous debris flows and the extirpation of trout populations. Following many years of habitat and ecological monitoring in the field, we have developed a modeling framework that links post-wildfire debris flows, fluvial sediment routing, and population ecology in order to evaluate the impact and response of trout to wildfire. First, using the Tushar topographic and wildfire parameters, as well as stochastic precipitation generation, we predict the post-wildfire debris flow probabilities and volumes of mainstem tributaries using the Cannon et al. [2010] model. This produces episodic hillslope sediment inputs, which are delivered to a fluvial sediment, river-network routing model (modified from Czuba et al. [2017]). In this updated model, sediment transport dynamics are driven by time-varying discharge associated with the stochastic precipitation generation, include multiple grain sizes (including gravel), use mixed-size transport equations (Wilcock & Crowe [2003]), and incorporate channel slope adjustments with aggradation and degradation. Finally, with the spatially explicit adjustments in channel bed elevation and grain size, we utilize a new population viability analysis (PVA) model to predict the impact and recovery of fish populations in response to these changes in habitat. Our model provides a generalizable framework for linking physical and ecological models and for evaluating the extirpation risk of isolated fish populations throughout the

  15. Quantifying the impact of woodpecker predation on population dynamics of the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E Jennings

    Full Text Available The emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis, is an invasive beetle that has killed millions of ash trees (Fraxinus spp. since it was accidentally introduced to North America in the 1990s. Understanding how predators such as woodpeckers (Picidae affect the population dynamics of EAB should enable us to more effectively manage the spread of this beetle, and toward this end we combined two experimental approaches to elucidate the relative importance of woodpecker predation on EAB populations. First, we examined wild populations of EAB in ash trees in New York, with each tree having a section screened to exclude woodpeckers. Second, we established experimental cohorts of EAB in ash trees in Maryland, and the cohorts on half of these trees were caged to exclude woodpeckers. The following spring these trees were debarked and the fates of the EAB larvae were determined. We found that trees from which woodpeckers were excluded consistently had significantly lower levels of predation, and that woodpecker predation comprised a greater source of mortality at sites with a more established wild infestation of EAB. Additionally, there was a considerable difference between New York and Maryland in the effect that woodpecker predation had on EAB population growth, suggesting that predation alone may not be a substantial factor in controlling EAB. In our experimental cohorts we also observed that trees from which woodpeckers were excluded had a significantly higher level of parasitism. The lower level of parasitism on EAB larvae found when exposed to woodpeckers has implications for EAB biological control, suggesting that it might be prudent to exclude woodpeckers from trees when attempting to establish parasitoid populations. Future studies may include utilizing EAB larval cohorts with a range of densities to explore the functional response of woodpeckers.

  16. Quantifying the impact of woodpecker predation on population dynamics of the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, David E; Gould, Juli R; Vandenberg, John D; Duan, Jian J; Shrewsbury, Paula M

    2013-01-01

    The emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, is an invasive beetle that has killed millions of ash trees (Fraxinus spp.) since it was accidentally introduced to North America in the 1990s. Understanding how predators such as woodpeckers (Picidae) affect the population dynamics of EAB should enable us to more effectively manage the spread of this beetle, and toward this end we combined two experimental approaches to elucidate the relative importance of woodpecker predation on EAB populations. First, we examined wild populations of EAB in ash trees in New York, with each tree having a section screened to exclude woodpeckers. Second, we established experimental cohorts of EAB in ash trees in Maryland, and the cohorts on half of these trees were caged to exclude woodpeckers. The following spring these trees were debarked and the fates of the EAB larvae were determined. We found that trees from which woodpeckers were excluded consistently had significantly lower levels of predation, and that woodpecker predation comprised a greater source of mortality at sites with a more established wild infestation of EAB. Additionally, there was a considerable difference between New York and Maryland in the effect that woodpecker predation had on EAB population growth, suggesting that predation alone may not be a substantial factor in controlling EAB. In our experimental cohorts we also observed that trees from which woodpeckers were excluded had a significantly higher level of parasitism. The lower level of parasitism on EAB larvae found when exposed to woodpeckers has implications for EAB biological control, suggesting that it might be prudent to exclude woodpeckers from trees when attempting to establish parasitoid populations. Future studies may include utilizing EAB larval cohorts with a range of densities to explore the functional response of woodpeckers.

  17. Vigorous dynamics underlie a stable population of the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koustubh Sharma

    Full Text Available Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+-0.25. Comparison of model results with the "known population" of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+-0.08 and that of young was 0.83 (SE+-0.15 and 0.77 (SE +-0.2 respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +-0.19 and 0.68, SE +-0.32 before and after the age of 2 years though not the adults (0.02 SE+-0.07. While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation.

  18. Retrospective Analysis of Communication Events - Understanding the Dynamics of Collaborative Multi-Party Discourse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowell, Andrew J.; Haack, Jereme N.; McColgin, Dave W.

    2006-06-08

    This research is aimed at understanding the dynamics of collaborative multi-party discourse across multiple communication modalities. Before we can truly make sig-nificant strides in devising collaborative communication systems, there is a need to understand how typical users utilize com-putationally supported communications mechanisms such as email, instant mes-saging, video conferencing, chat rooms, etc., both singularly and in conjunction with traditional means of communication such as face-to-face meetings, telephone calls and postal mail. Attempting to un-derstand an individual’s communications profile with access to only a single modal-ity is challenging at best and often futile. Here, we discuss the development of RACE – Retrospective Analysis of Com-munications Events – a test-bed prototype to investigate issues relating to multi-modal multi-party discourse.

  19. Using chemistry and microfluidics to understand the spatial dynamics of complex biological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kastrup, Christian J; Runyon, Matthew K; Lucchetta, Elena M; Price, Jessica M; Ismagilov, Rustem F

    2008-04-01

    Understanding the spatial dynamics of biochemical networks is both fundamentally important for understanding life at the systems level and also has practical implications for medicine, engineering, biology, and chemistry. Studies at the level of individual reactions provide essential information about the function, interactions, and localization of individual molecular species and reactions in a network. However, analyzing the spatial dynamics of complex biochemical networks at this level is difficult. Biochemical networks are nonequilibrium systems containing dozens to hundreds of reactions with nonlinear and time-dependent interactions, and these interactions are influenced by diffusion, flow, and the relative values of state-dependent kinetic parameters. To achieve an overall understanding of the spatial dynamics of a network and the global mechanisms that drive its function, networks must be analyzed as a whole, where all of the components and influential parameters of a network are simultaneously considered. Here, we describe chemical concepts and microfluidic tools developed for network-level investigations of the spatial dynamics of these networks. Modular approaches can be used to simplify these networks by separating them into modules, and simple experimental or computational models can be created by replacing each module with a single reaction. Microfluidics can be used to implement these models as well as to analyze and perturb the complex network itself with spatial control on the micrometer scale. We also describe the application of these network-level approaches to elucidate the mechanisms governing the spatial dynamics of two networkshemostasis (blood clotting) and early patterning of the Drosophila embryo. To investigate the dynamics of the complex network of hemostasis, we simplified the network by using a modular mechanism and created a chemical model based on this mechanism by using microfluidics. Then, we used the mechanism and the model to

  20. Darwinism without populations: a more inclusive understanding of the "Survival of the Fittest".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchard, Frédéric

    2011-03-01

    Following Wallace's suggestion, Darwin framed his theory using Spencer's expression "survival of the fittest". Since then, fitness occupies a significant place in the conventional understanding of Darwinism, even though the explicit meaning of the term 'fitness' is rarely stated. In this paper I examine some of the different roles that fitness has played in the development of the theory. Whereas the meaning of fitness was originally understood in ecological terms, it took a statistical turn in terms of reproductive success throughout the 20th Century. This has lead to the ever-increasing importance of sexually reproducing organisms and the populations they compose in evolutionary explanations. I will argue that, moving forward, evolutionary theory should look back at its ecological roots in order to be more inclusive in the type of systems it examines. Many biological systems (e.g. clonal species, colonial species, multi-species communities) can only be satisfactorily accounted for by offering a non-reproductive account of fitness. This argument will be made by examining biological systems with very small or transient population structures. I argue this has significant consequences for how we define Darwinism, increasing the significance of survival (or persistence) over that of reproduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A mechanistic analysis of density dependence in algal population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian eBorlestean

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Population density regulation is a fundamental principle in ecology, but the specific process underlying functional expression of density dependence remains to be fully elucidated. One view contends that patterns of density dependence are largely fixed across a species irrespective of environmental conditions, whereas another is that the strength and expression of density dependence are fundamentally variable depending on the nature of exogenous or endogenous constraints acting on the population. We conducted a study investigating the expression of density dependence in Chlamydomonas spp. grown under a gradient from low to high nutrient density. We predicted that the relationship between per capita growth rate (pgr and population density would vary from concave up to concave down as nutrient density became less limiting and populations experienced weaker density regulation. Contrary to prediction, we found that the relationship between pgr and density became increasingly concave-up as nutrient levels increased. We also found that variation in pgr increased, and pgr levels reached higher maxima in nutrient-limited environments. Most likely, these results are attributable to population growth suppression in environments with high intraspecific competition due to limited nutrient resources. Our results suggest that density regulation is strongly variable depending on exogenous and endogenous processes acting on the population, implying that expression of density dependence depends extensively on local conditions. Additional experimental work should reveal the mechanisms influencing how the expression of density dependence varies across populations through space and time.

  2. Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

    2017-10-03

    Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

  3. Understanding support for complementary and alternative medicine in general populations: use and perceived efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoneman, Paul; Sturgis, Patrick; Allum, Nick

    2013-09-01

    Proponents of complementary and alternative medicine argue that these treatments can be used with great effect in addition to, and sometimes instead of, conventional medicine, a position which has drawn sustained opposition from those who advocate an evidence-based approach to the evaluation of treatment efficacy. Using recent survey data from the United Kingdom, this article seeks to establish a clearer understanding of the nature of the public's relationship with complementary and alternative medicine within the general population by focusing on beliefs about the perceived effectiveness of homeopathy, in addition to its reported use. Using recent data from the United Kingdom, we initially demonstrate that reported use and perceived effectiveness are far from coterminous and argue that for a proper understanding of the motivations underpinning public support of complementary and alternative medicine, consideration of both reported use and perceived effectiveness is necessary. We go on to demonstrate that although the profile of homeopathy users differs from those who support this form of medicine, neither outcome is dependent upon peoples' levels of knowledge about science. Instead, the results suggest a far greater explanatory role for need and concerns about conventional medicine.

  4. Computational Cellular Dynamics Based on the Chemical Master Equation: A Challenge for Understanding Complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Jie; Qian, Hong

    2010-01-01

    Modern molecular biology has always been a great source of inspiration for computational science. Half a century ago, the challenge from understanding macromolecular dynamics has led the way for computations to be part of the tool set to study molecular biology. Twenty-five years ago, the demand from genome science has inspired an entire generation of computer scientists with an interest in discrete mathematics to join the field that is now called bioinformatics. In this paper, we shall lay out a new mathematical theory for dynamics of biochemical reaction systems in a small volume (i.e., mesoscopic) in terms of a stochastic, discrete-state continuous-time formulation, called the chemical master equation (CME). Similar to the wavefunction in quantum mechanics, the dynamically changing probability landscape associated with the state space provides a fundamental characterization of the biochemical reaction system. The stochastic trajectories of the dynamics are best known through the simulations using the Gillespie algorithm. In contrast to the Metropolis algorithm, this Monte Carlo sampling technique does not follow a process with detailed balance. We shall show several examples how CMEs are used to model cellular biochemical systems. We shall also illustrate the computational challenges involved: multiscale phenomena, the interplay between stochasticity and nonlinearity, and how macroscopic determinism arises from mesoscopic dynamics. We point out recent advances in computing solutions to the CME, including exact solution of the steady state landscape and stochastic differential equations that offer alternatives to the Gilespie algorithm. We argue that the CME is an ideal system from which one can learn to understand "complex behavior" and complexity theory, and from which important biological insight can be gained.

  5. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SMALL MAMMALS ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biogeochemical alterations of the nitrogen cycle from anthropogenic activities could have significant effects on ecological processes at the population, community and ecosystem levels. Nitrogen additions in grasslands have produced qualitative and quantitative changes in vegetat...

  6. Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.

    2017-01-01

    Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist

  7. The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel

    2011-11-01

    Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  8. Chaotic population dynamics and biology of the top-predator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rai, Vikas; Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar

    2004-01-01

    We study how the dynamics of a food chain depends on the biology of the top-predator. We consider two model food chains with specialist and generalist top-predators. Both types of food chains display same type of chaotic behavior, short-term recurrent chaos; but the generating mechanisms are drastically different. Food chains with specialist top-predators are dictated by exogenous stochastic factors. On the contrary, the dynamics of those with the generalist top-predator is governed by deterministic changes in system parameters. The study also suggests that robust chaos would be a rarity

  9. Toward Understanding the Dynamics of Microbial Communities in an Estuarine System

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Weipeng; Bougouffa, Salim; Wang, Yong; Lee, On On; Yang, Jiangke; Chan, Colin; Song, Xingyu; Qian, Pei-Yuan

    2014-01-01

    Community assembly theories such as species sorting theory provide a framework for understanding the structures and dynamics of local communities. The effect of theoretical mechanisms can vary with the scales of observation and effects of specific environmental factors. Based on 16S rRNA gene tag pyrosequencing, different structures and temporal succession patterns were discovered between the surface sediments and bottom water microbial communities in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE). The microbial communities in the surface sediment samples were more diverse than those in the bottom water samples, and several genera were specific for the water or sediment communities. Moreover, water temperature was identified as the main variable driving community dynamics and the microbial communities in the sediment showed a greater temporal change. We speculate that nutrient-based species sorting and bacterial plasticity to the temperature contribute to the variations observed between sediment and water communities in the PRE. This study provides a more comprehensive understanding of the microbial community structures in a highly dynamic estuarine system and sheds light on the applicability of ecological theoretical mechanisms.

  10. Energy landscape scheme for an intuitive understanding of complex domain dynamics in ferroelectric thin films.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae Heon; Yoon, Jong-Gul; Baek, Seung Hyub; Park, Woong-kyu; Yang, Sang Mo; Yup Jang, Seung; Min, Taeyuun; Chung, Jin-Seok; Eom, Chang-Beom; Noh, Tae Won

    2015-07-01

    Fundamental understanding of domain dynamics in ferroic materials has been a longstanding issue because of its relevance to many systems and to the design of nanoscale domain-wall devices. Despite many theoretical and experimental studies, a full understanding of domain dynamics still remains incomplete, partly due to complex interactions between domain-walls and disorder. We report domain-shape-preserving deterministic domain-wall motion, which directly confirms microscopic return point memory, by observing domain-wall breathing motion in ferroelectric BiFeO3 thin film using stroboscopic piezoresponse force microscopy. Spatial energy landscape that provides new insights into domain dynamics is also mapped based on the breathing motion of domain walls. The evolution of complex domain structure can be understood by the process of occupying the lowest available energy states of polarization in the energy landscape which is determined by defect-induced internal fields. Our result highlights a pathway for the novel design of ferroelectric domain-wall devices through the engineering of energy landscape using defect-induced internal fields such as flexoelectric fields.

  11. Energy landscape scheme for an intuitive understanding of complex domain dynamics in ferroelectric thin films

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heon Kim, Tae; Yoon, Jong-Gul; Hyub Baek, Seung; Park, Woong-Kyu; Mo Yang, Sang; Yup Jang, Seung; Min, Taeyuun; Chung, Jin-Seok; Eom, Chang-Beom; Won Noh, Tae

    2015-07-01

    Fundamental understanding of domain dynamics in ferroic materials has been a longstanding issue because of its relevance to many systems and to the design of nanoscale domain-wall devices. Despite many theoretical and experimental studies, a full understanding of domain dynamics still remains incomplete, partly due to complex interactions between domain-walls and disorder. We report domain-shape-preserving deterministic domain-wall motion, which directly confirms microscopic return point memory, by observing domain-wall breathing motion in ferroelectric BiFeO3 thin film using stroboscopic piezoresponse force microscopy. Spatial energy landscape that provides new insights into domain dynamics is also mapped based on the breathing motion of domain walls. The evolution of complex domain structure can be understood by the process of occupying the lowest available energy states of polarization in the energy landscape which is determined by defect-induced internal fields. Our result highlights a pathway for the novel design of ferroelectric domain-wall devices through the engineering of energy landscape using defect-induced internal fields such as flexoelectric fields.

  12. Toward understanding the dynamics of microbial communities in an estuarine system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weipeng Zhang

    Full Text Available Community assembly theories such as species sorting theory provide a framework for understanding the structures and dynamics of local communities. The effect of theoretical mechanisms can vary with the scales of observation and effects of specific environmental factors. Based on 16S rRNA gene tag pyrosequencing, different structures and temporal succession patterns were discovered between the surface sediments and bottom water microbial communities in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE. The microbial communities in the surface sediment samples were more diverse than those in the bottom water samples, and several genera were specific for the water or sediment communities. Moreover, water temperature was identified as the main variable driving community dynamics and the microbial communities in the sediment showed a greater temporal change. We speculate that nutrient-based species sorting and bacterial plasticity to the temperature contribute to the variations observed between sediment and water communities in the PRE. This study provides a more comprehensive understanding of the microbial community structures in a highly dynamic estuarine system and sheds light on the applicability of ecological theoretical mechanisms.

  13. Toward Understanding the Dynamics of Microbial Communities in an Estuarine System

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Weipeng

    2014-04-14

    Community assembly theories such as species sorting theory provide a framework for understanding the structures and dynamics of local communities. The effect of theoretical mechanisms can vary with the scales of observation and effects of specific environmental factors. Based on 16S rRNA gene tag pyrosequencing, different structures and temporal succession patterns were discovered between the surface sediments and bottom water microbial communities in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE). The microbial communities in the surface sediment samples were more diverse than those in the bottom water samples, and several genera were specific for the water or sediment communities. Moreover, water temperature was identified as the main variable driving community dynamics and the microbial communities in the sediment showed a greater temporal change. We speculate that nutrient-based species sorting and bacterial plasticity to the temperature contribute to the variations observed between sediment and water communities in the PRE. This study provides a more comprehensive understanding of the microbial community structures in a highly dynamic estuarine system and sheds light on the applicability of ecological theoretical mechanisms.

  14. Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crone, E.E.

    1995-11-08

    The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

  15. The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaub, Michael; Reichlin, Thomas S; Abadi, Fitsum; Kéry, Marc; Jenni, Lukas; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2012-01-01

    The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

  16. Consequences of population models on the dynamics of food chains.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooi, B.W.; Boer, M.P.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    1998-01-01

    A class of bioenergetic ecological models is studied for the dynamics of food chains with a nutrient at the base. A constant influx rate of the nutrient and a constant efflux rate for all trophic levels is assumed. Starting point is a simple model where prey is converted into predator with a fixed

  17. Mapping Populations: An Objective Measurement of Revolutionary Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    the figurehead for the NSDAP because of his apparent ubiquity with the working class and the machinations of the bourgeoisie society members...dynamics between the proletariat and the bourgeoisie of German society in the 1920’s exemplified the need for a figurehead. Furthermore, the

  18. The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

    2017-06-01

    Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

  19. Real-Time G-Protein-Coupled Receptor Imaging to Understand and Quantify Receptor Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María S. Aymerich

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the trafficking of G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs and their regulation by agonists and antagonists is fundamental to develop more effective drugs. Optical methods using fluorescent-tagged receptors and spinning disk confocal microscopy are useful tools to investigate membrane receptor dynamics in living cells. The aim of this study was to develop a method to characterize receptor dynamics using this system which offers the advantage of very fast image acquisition with minimal cell perturbation. However, in short-term assays photobleaching was still a problem. Thus, we developed a procedure to perform a photobleaching-corrected image analysis. A study of short-term dynamics of the long isoform of the dopamine type 2 receptor revealed an agonist-induced increase in the mobile fraction of receptors with a rate of movement of 0.08 μm/s For long-term assays, the ratio between the relative fluorescence intensity at the cell surface versus that in the intracellular compartment indicated that receptor internalization only occurred in cells co-expressing G protein-coupled receptor kinase 2. These results indicate that the lateral movement of receptors and receptor internalization are not directly coupled. Thus, we believe that live imaging of GPCRs using spinning disk confocal image analysis constitutes a powerful tool to study of receptor dynamics.

  20. Physiology in Medicine: Understanding dynamic alveolar physiology to minimize ventilator-induced lung injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieman, Gary F; Satalin, Josh; Kollisch-Singule, Michaela; Andrews, Penny; Aiash, Hani; Habashi, Nader M; Gatto, Louis A

    2017-06-01

    Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) remains a serious clinical problem with the main treatment being supportive in the form of mechanical ventilation. However, mechanical ventilation can be a double-edged sword: if set improperly, it can exacerbate the tissue damage caused by ARDS; this is known as ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI). To minimize VILI, we must understand the pathophysiologic mechanisms of tissue damage at the alveolar level. In this Physiology in Medicine paper, the dynamic physiology of alveolar inflation and deflation during mechanical ventilation will be reviewed. In addition, the pathophysiologic mechanisms of VILI will be reviewed, and this knowledge will be used to suggest an optimal mechanical breath profile (MB P : all airway pressures, volumes, flows, rates, and the duration that they are applied at both inspiration and expiration) necessary to minimize VILI. Our review suggests that the current protective ventilation strategy, known as the "open lung strategy," would be the optimal lung-protective approach. However, the viscoelastic behavior of dynamic alveolar inflation and deflation has not yet been incorporated into protective mechanical ventilation strategies. Using our knowledge of dynamic alveolar mechanics (i.e., the dynamic change in alveolar and alveolar duct size and shape during tidal ventilation) to modify the MB P so as to minimize VILI will reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with ARDS. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

  1. Universality in exact quantum state population dynamics and control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Lian-Ao; Segal, Dvira; Brumer, Paul; Egusquiza, Inigo L.

    2010-01-01

    We consider an exact population transition, defined as the probability of finding a state at a final time that is exactly equal to the probability of another state at the initial time. We prove that, given a Hamiltonian, there always exists a complete set of orthogonal states that can be employed as time-zero states for which this exact population transition occurs. The result is general: It holds for arbitrary systems, arbitrary pairs of initial and final states, and for any time interval. The proposition is illustrated with several analytic models. In particular, we demonstrate that in some cases, by tuning the control parameters, a complete transition might occur, where a target state, vacant at t=0, is fully populated at time τ.

  2. The population dynamical implications of male-biased parasitism in different mating systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin R Miller

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Although there is growing evidence that males tend to suffer higher levels of parasitism than females, the implications of this for the population dynamics of the host population are not yet understood. Here we build on an established 'two-sex' model and investigate how increased susceptibility to infection in males affects the dynamics, under different mating systems. We investigate the effect of pathogenic disease at different case mortalities, under both monogamous and polygynous mating systems. If the case mortality is low, then male-biased parasitism appears similar to unbiased parasitism in terms of its effect on the population dynamics. At higher case mortalities, we identified significant differences between male-biased and unbiased parasitism. A host population may therefore be differentially affected by male-biased and unbiased parasitism. The dynamical outcome is likely to depend on a complex interaction between the host's mating system and demography, and the parasite virulence.

  3. Population, environment dynamics, poverty and quality of life in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, B

    1996-12-01

    This article focuses on the growth in poverty, environmental concerns, and Chinese government efforts to eliminate poverty with integrated programs. China had 1.2 billion people in February 1995, or 20% of total world population on 7% of the world's arable land. The rate of natural increase was 1.1% in 1996. China's population could double to 2.4 billion by 2060. About 14 million people are added every year. China has about 300 million women of childbearing age. Even with 1 child per woman, population would grow by 300 million. 18 provinces have population growth over the national average of 1.49%. Many of these provinces are also provinces with high population density, high poverty ratios, and higher than 2 birth orders. The highest growth is in western China. Poor households have a lower quality of life, more disabled members, high rates of endemic disease, and illiteracy. Among the very poor without adequate food or clothing, environmental protection is a meaningless concept. Poverty alleviation strategies have shifted from relief to economic development. State support combined with local resources in a pooling approach pays for poverty alleviation programs. The central government's share will increase until the year 2000. The number of poor was 80 million in 1994 (9% of total population) living in 592 poor counties in remote and mountainous areas. The number of poor was reduced to 65 million in 1996. An integrated approach of family planning and poverty alleviation operates in Jinzhai County of Anhui province. China is determined to reorient to a "service-oriented, client- centered, woman-sensitive, and rural-emphasized approach."

  4. What shakes the FX tree? Understanding currency dominance, dependence, and dynamics (Keynote Address)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Neil F.; McDonald, Mark; Suleman, Omer; Williams, Stacy; Howison, Sam

    2005-05-01

    There is intense interest in understanding the stochastic and dynamical properties of the global Foreign Exchange (FX) market, whose daily transactions exceed one trillion US dollars. This is a formidable task since the FX market is characterized by a web of fluctuating exchange rates, with subtle inter-dependencies which may change in time. In practice, traders talk of particular currencies being 'in play' during a particular period of time -- yet there is no established machinery for detecting such important information. Here we apply the construction of Minimum Spanning Trees (MSTs) to the FX market, and show that the MST can capture important features of the global FX dynamics. Moreover, we show that the MST can help identify momentarily dominant and dependent currencies.

  5. Understanding role of genome dynamics in host adaptation of gut commensal, L. reuteri

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shikha Sharma

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Lactobacillus reuteri is a gram-positive gut commensal and exhibits noteworthy adaptation to its vertebrate hosts. Host adaptation is often driven by inter-strain genome dynamics like expansion of insertion sequences that lead to acquisition and loss of gene(s and creation of large dynamic regions. In this regard we carried in-house genome sequencing of large number of L. reuteri strains origination from human, chicken, pig and rodents. We further next generation sequence data in understanding invasion and expansion of an IS element in shaping genome of strains belonging to human associated lineage. Finally, we share our experience in high-throughput genomic library preparation and generating high quality sequence data of a very low GC bacterium like L. reuteri.

  6. Evolutionary dynamics of populations with conflicting interactions: Classification and analytical treatment considering asymmetry and power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbing, Dirk; Johansson, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Evolutionary game theory has been successfully used to investigate the dynamics of systems, in which many entities have competitive interactions. From a physics point of view, it is interesting to study conditions under which a coordination or cooperation of interacting entities will occur, be it spins, particles, bacteria, animals, or humans. Here, we analyze the case, where the entities are heterogeneous, particularly the case of two populations with conflicting interactions and two possible states. For such systems, explicit mathematical formulas will be determined for the stationary solutions and the associated eigenvalues, which determine their stability. In this way, four different types of system dynamics can be classified and the various kinds of phase transitions between them will be discussed. While these results are interesting from a physics point of view, they are also relevant for social, economic, and biological systems, as they allow one to understand conditions for (1) the breakdown of cooperation, (2) the coexistence of different behaviors (“subcultures”), (3) the evolution of commonly shared behaviors (“norms”), and (4) the occurrence of polarization or conflict. We point out that norms have a similar function in social systems that forces have in physics.

  7. Experiments with mathematical models to simulate hepatitis A population dynamics under different levels of endemicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Alves de Guimaraens

    Full Text Available Heterogeneous access to sanitation services is a characteristic of communities in Brazil. This heterogeneity leads to different patterns of hepatitis A endemicity: areas with low infection rates have higher probability of outbreaks, and areas with higher infection rates have high prevalence and low risk of outbreaks. Here we develop a mathematical model to study the effect of variable exposure to infection on the epidemiological dynamics of hepatitis A. Differential equations were used to simulate population dynamics and were numerically solved using the software StellaTM. The model uses parameters from serological surveys in the Greater Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro, in areas with different sanitation conditions. Computer simulation experiments show that the range of infection rates observed in these communities are characteristic of high and low levels of hepatitis A endemicity. We also found that the functional relationship between sanitation and exposure to infection is an important component of the model. The analysis of the public health impact of partial sanitation requires a better understanding of this relationship.

  8. Dynamics of Cercospora zeina populations in maize-based agro ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    La variation dans le temps au sein d'une population, est fonction de facteurs relatifs à l'écologie, la biologie et l'histoire de vie des pathogènes. Elle varie d'un être vivant à un autre et d'un écosystème à un autre. L'objectif de cette étude était d'évaluer la variabilité génétique au sein des populations de Cercospora zeina ...

  9. The dynamics of discrete populations and series of events

    CERN Document Server

    Hopcraft, Keith Iain; Ridley, Kevin D

    2014-01-01

    IntroductionReferencesStatistical PreliminariesIntroductionProbability DistributionsMoment-Generating FunctionsDiscrete ProcessesSeries of EventsSummaryFurther ReadingMarkovian Population ProcessesIntroductionBirths and DeathsImmigration and the Poisson ProcessThe Effect of MeasurementCorrelation of CountsSummaryFurther ReadingThe Birth-Death-Immigration ProcessIntroductionRate Equations for the ProcessEquation for the Generating FunctionGeneral Time-Dependent SolutionFluctuation Characteristics of a Birth-Death-Immigration PopulationSampling and Measurement ProcessesCorrelation of CountsSumma

  10. Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

    2014-01-01

    This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

  11. Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus: a comparison between central and range edge populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita M Araújo

    Full Text Available Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental

  12. Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus): a comparison between central and range edge populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Rita M; Serrão, Ester A; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Åberg, Per

    2014-01-01

    Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s)) of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s) much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s) that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental variability and

  13. Life history and population dynamics of an estuarine amphipod, Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae)

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Aravind, N.P.; Sheeba, P.; Nair, K.K.C.; Achuthankutty, C.T.

    Life history and Population Dynamics of an Estuarine Amphipod –Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae) Nisha. P. Aravind, P. Sheeba, K.K.C. Nair and C.T.Achuthankutty* National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre, Cochin 682018, India... of laboratory data to the field suggests that E. chilkensis in Cochin estuary has a multivoltine life cycle. Key words: - Eriopisa chilkensis, Amphipoda, life cycle, population dynamics, Cochin estuary, India 2 1. Introduction Life-history traits of 214 amphipod...

  14. Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-06-01

    1973. Ecology of Vibrio parahemolyticus in mixed-template amplifications: formation, consequences and elimination by Chesapeake Bay. J. Bacteriol. 113...Science 1930 and Engineering DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria by...DYNAMICS IN NATURAL POPULATIONS OF PLANKTONIC VIBRIO BACTERIA by Janelle Ren6e Thompson B.S. Biological Sciences, Stanford University 1998 M.S

  15. The significance of nonviable eggs for Daphnia population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boersma, M.; Vijverberg, J.

    1995-01-01

    Egg mortality was studied in populations of Daphnia galeata, Daphnia cucullata, and the hybrid between these species. In Tjeukemeer, a shallow eutrophic lake in the Netherlands, egg mortality in daphnids manifested itself as an apparent increase in the frequency of eggs in the early developmental

  16. Population dynamics of Lemniscomys rosalia (Muridae: Rodentia) in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Numerous studies have reported increases in rodent populations following good rainfall (Nel 1978; Perrin & Swanepoel 1987; Bronner, Rau- ten bach & Meester 1988). This relationship is thought to be an indirect one where increased rainfall acts to increase cover and food supply. thus enabling rodents to reproduce (Neal.

  17. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  18. The larval development and population dynamics of Derocheilocaris ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Seven larval stages of Derocheilocaris algoensis have been described and appear to be identical with those of D. typica from North America. This stresses the remarkable conservativeness of this subclass of Crustacea. The population biology of D. algoensis has been studied over 16 months and reproduction has been ...

  19. Population Dynamics and Transcriptomic Responses of Chorthippus albonemus (Orthoptera: Acrididae to Herbivore Grazing Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinghu Qin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Livestock grazing can trigger outbreaks of insect pests in steppe ecosystems of Inner Mongolia in China. However, the physiological responses of the grasshopper Chorthippus albonemus to grazing are not well-understood. Here we investigated the effects of sheep grazing on the population dynamics and transcriptomic response of C. albonemus. We collected the insects three times (about 20 days apart in 1.33-ha plots in which there were no grazing, light grazing, moderate grazing, heavy grazing, or overgrazing. Our results showed that continuous grazing significantly decreased plant biomass and influenced plant succession. Total insect species diversity significantly declined along the grazing intensity gradient and over time. Results of the first two collections of C. albonemus indicated that moderate grazing significantly increased the abundance of C. albonemus. However, abundance was significantly decreased in plots that were overgrazed, possibly because of food stress and environmental pressures. Under moderate grazing, betA and CHDH genes were significantly upregulated in C. albonemus. In response to higher grazing intensity, upregulated genes included those involved in serine-type peptidase activity, anatomical structure development, and sensory organ development; downregulated genes included those involved in the structural constituents of the ribosome and ribosome processes. Genes strongly upregulated in response to heavy grazing pressure included adaptive genes such as those encoding ankyrin repeat domain-containing protein and HSP. These findings improve our understanding of the role of the transcriptome in C. albonemus population response to livestock grazing and may provide useful targets for grasshopper control.

  20. Effect of environment and fallow period on Cosmopolites sordidus population dynamics at the landscape scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duyck, P-F; Dortel, E; Vinatier, F; Gaujoux, E; Carval, D; Tixier, P

    2012-10-01

    Understanding how the population dynamics of insect pests are affected by environmental factors and agricultural practices is important for pest management. To investigate how the abundance of the banana weevil, Cosmopolites sordidus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is related to environmental factors and the length of the fallow period in Martinique, we developed an extensive data set (18,130 observations of weevil abundance obtained with pheromone traps plus associated environmental data) and analysed it with generalized mixed-effects models. At the island scale, C. sordidus abundance was positively related to mean temperature and negatively related to mean rainfall but was not related to soil type. The number of insects trapped was highest during the driest months of the year. Abundance of C. sordidus decreased as the duration of the preceding fallow period increased. The latter finding is inconsistent with the view that fallow-generated decomposing banana tissue is an important resource for larvae that leads to an increase in the pest population. The results are consistent with the view that fallows, in association with pheromone traps, are effective for the control of the banana weevil.

  1. Seasonal timing of first rain storms affects rare plant population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

    2011-01-01

    A major challenge in forecasting the ecological consequences of climate change is understanding the relative importance of changes to mean conditions vs. changes to discrete climatic events, such as storms, frosts, or droughts. Here we show that the first major storm of the growing season strongly influences the population dynamics of three rare and endangered annual plant species in a coastal California (USA) ecosystem. In a field experiment we used moisture barriers and water addition to manipulate the timing and temperature associated with first major rains of the season. The three focal species showed two- to fivefold variation in per capita population growth rates between the different storm treatments, comparable to variation found in a prior experiment imposing eightfold differences in season-long precipitation. Variation in germination was a major demographic driver of how two of three species responded to the first rains. For one of these species, the timing of the storm was the most critical determinant of its germination, while the other showed enhanced germination with colder storm temperatures. The role of temperature was further supported by laboratory trials showing enhanced germination in cooler treatments. Our work suggests that, because of species-specific cues for demographic transitions such as germination, changes to discrete climate events may be as, if not more, important than changes to season-long variables.

  2. Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡

  3. Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; Zhang, J.-C.

    2017-01-01

    Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. For non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.

  4. Asymmetric Dynamic Attunement of Speech and Gestures in the Construction of Children's Understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Jonge-Hoekstra, Lisette; Van der Steen, Steffie; Van Geert, Paul; Cox, Ralf F A

    2016-01-01

    As children learn they use their speech to express words and their hands to gesture. This study investigates the interplay between real-time gestures and speech as children construct cognitive understanding during a hands-on science task. 12 children (M = 6, F = 6) from Kindergarten (n = 5) and first grade (n = 7) participated in this study. Each verbal utterance and gesture during the task were coded, on a complexity scale derived from dynamic skill theory. To explore the interplay between speech and gestures, we applied a cross recurrence quantification analysis (CRQA) to the two coupled time series of the skill levels of verbalizations and gestures. The analysis focused on (1) the temporal relation between gestures and speech, (2) the relative strength and direction of the interaction between gestures and speech, (3) the relative strength and direction between gestures and speech for different levels of understanding, and (4) relations between CRQA measures and other child characteristics. The results show that older and younger children differ in the (temporal) asymmetry in the gestures-speech interaction. For younger children, the balance leans more toward gestures leading speech in time, while the balance leans more toward speech leading gestures for older children. Secondly, at the group level, speech attracts gestures in a more dynamically stable fashion than vice versa, and this asymmetry in gestures and speech extends to lower and higher understanding levels. Yet, for older children, the mutual coupling between gestures and speech is more dynamically stable regarding the higher understanding levels. Gestures and speech are more synchronized in time as children are older. A higher score on schools' language tests is related to speech attracting gestures more rigidly and more asymmetry between gestures and speech, only for the less difficult understanding levels. A higher score on math or past science tasks is related to less asymmetry between gestures and

  5. Asymmetric dynamic attunement of speech and gestures in the construction of children’s understanding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisette eDe Jonge-Hoekstra

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available As children learn they use their speech to express words and their hands to gesture. This study investigates the interplay between real-time gestures and speech as children construct cognitive understanding during a hands-on science task. 12 children (M = 6, F = 6 from Kindergarten (n = 5 and first grade (n = 7 participated in this study. Each verbal utterance and gesture during the task were coded, on a complexity scale derived from dynamic skill theory. To explore the interplay between speech and gestures, we applied a cross recurrence quantification analysis (CRQA to the two coupled time series of the skill levels of verbalizations and gestures. The analysis focused on 1 the temporal relation between gestures and speech, 2 the relative strength and direction of the interaction between gestures and speech, 3 the relative strength and direction between gestures and speech for different levels of understanding, and 4 relations between CRQA measures and other child characteristics. The results show that older and younger children differ in the (temporal asymmetry in the gestures-speech interaction. For younger children, the balance leans more towards gestures leading speech in time, while the balance leans more towards speech leading gestures for older children. Secondly, at the group level, speech attracts gestures in a more dynamically stable fashion than vice versa, and this asymmetry in gestures and speech extends to lower and higher understanding levels. Yet, for older children, the mutual coupling between gestures and speech is more dynamically stable regarding the higher understanding levels. Gestures and speech are more synchronized in time as children are older. A higher score on schools’ language tests is related to speech attracting gestures more rigidly and more asymmetry between gestures and speech, only for the less difficult understanding levels. A higher score on math or past science tasks is related to less asymmetry between

  6. Red Sea Acropora hemprichii Bacterial Population Dynamics under Adverse Anthropogenic Conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Lizcano, Javier

    2012-08-01

    Reef-building corals are cornerstones of life in the oceans. Understanding their interactions with microorganisms and their surrounding physicochemical conditions is important to comprehend reef functioning and ultimately protect coral reef ecosystems. Corals associate with a complex and specific array of microorganisms that supposedly affect their physiology and therefore can significantly determine the condition of a coral ecosystem. As environmental conditions may shape bacterial diversity and ecology in the coral symbiosis, ecosystem changes might have unfavorable consequences for the holobiont, to date poorly understood. Here, we were studying microbial community changes in A. hemprichii as a consequence of simulated eutrophication and overfishing over a period of 16 weeks by using in situ caging and slow release fertilizer treatments in an undisturbed Red Sea reef (22.18ºN, 38.57ºW). We used 16S rDNA amplicon sequencing to evaluate the individual and combined effects of overnutrification and fishing pressure, two of the most common local threats to coral reefs. With our data we hope to better understand bacterial population dynamics under anthropogenic influences and its role in coral resilience. Projecting further, this data will be useful to better predict the consequences of human activity on reef ecosystems.

  7. Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woody, Scott T; Ives, Anthony R; Nordheim, Erik V; Andrews, John H

    2007-06-01

    Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems.

  8. Understanding Dynamic Model Validation of a Wind Turbine Generator and a Wind Power Plant: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, Eduard; Zhang, Ying Chen; Gevorgian, Vahan; Kosterev, Dmitry

    2016-09-01

    Regional reliability organizations require power plants to validate the dynamic models that represent them to ensure that power systems studies are performed to the best representation of the components installed. In the process of validating a wind power plant (WPP), one must be cognizant of the parameter settings of the wind turbine generators (WTGs) and the operational settings of the WPP. Validating the dynamic model of a WPP is required to be performed periodically. This is because the control parameters of the WTGs and the other supporting components within a WPP may be modified to comply with new grid codes or upgrades to the WTG controller with new capabilities developed by the turbine manufacturers or requested by the plant owners or operators. The diversity within a WPP affects the way we represent it in a model. Diversity within a WPP may be found in the way the WTGs are controlled, the wind resource, the layout of the WPP (electrical diversity), and the type of WTGs used. Each group of WTGs constitutes a significant portion of the output power of the WPP, and their unique and salient behaviors should be represented individually. The objective of this paper is to illustrate the process of dynamic model validations of WTGs and WPPs, the available data recorded that must be screened before it is used for the dynamic validations, and the assumptions made in the dynamic models of the WTG and WPP that must be understood. Without understanding the correct process, the validations may lead to the wrong representations of the WTG and WPP modeled.

  9. Understanding physical activity participation in spinal cord injured populations: Three narrative types for consideration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathomas, Anthony; Williams, Toni L.; Smith, Brett

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identity the types of physical activity narratives drawn upon by active spinal injured people. More than 50 h of semi-structured life-story interview data, collected as part of larger interdisciplinary program of disability lifestyle research, was analysed for 30 physically active male and female spinal cord injury (SCI) participants. A structural narrative analysis of data identified three narrative types which people with SCI draw on: (1) exercise is restitution, (2) exercise is medicine, and (3) exercise is progressive redemption. These insights contribute new knowledge by adding a unique narrative perspective to existing cognitive understanding of physical activity behaviour in the spinal cord injured population. The implications of this narrative typology for developing effective positive behavioural change interventions are critically discussed. It is concluded that the identified narratives types may be constitutive, as well as reflective, of physical activity experiences and therefore may be a useful tool on which to base physical activity promotion initiatives. PMID:26282868

  10. Understanding the genetic diversity and population structure of yam (Dioscorea alata L.) using microsatellite markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnau, Gemma; MN, Sheela; Chair, Hana; Lebot, Vincent; K, Abraham; Perrier, Xavier; Petro, Dalila; Penet, Laurent; Pavis, Claudie

    2017-01-01

    Yams (Dioscorea sp.) are staple food crops for millions of people in tropical and subtropical regions. Dioscorea alata, also known as greater yam, is one of the major cultivated species and most widely distributed throughout the tropics. Despite its economic and cultural importance, very little is known about its origin, diversity and genetics. As a consequence, breeding efforts for resistance to its main disease, anthracnose, have been fairly limited. The objective of this study was to contribute to the understanding of D. alata genetic diversity by genotyping 384 accessions from different geographical regions (South Pacific, Asia, Africa and the Caribbean), using 24 microsatellite markers. Diversity structuration was assessed via Principal Coordinate Analysis, UPGMA analysis and the Bayesian approach implemented in STRUCTURE. Our results revealed the existence of a wide genetic diversity and a significant structuring associated with geographic origin, ploidy levels and morpho-agronomic characteristics. Seventeen major groups of genetically close cultivars have been identified, including eleven groups of diploid cultivars, four groups of triploids and two groups of tetraploids. STRUCTURE revealed the existence of six populations in the diploid genetic pool and a few admixed cultivars. These results will be very useful for rationalizing D. alata genetic resources in breeding programs across different regions and for improving germplasm conservation methods. PMID:28355293

  11. Understanding physical activity participation in spinal cord injured populations: Three narrative types for consideration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Papathomas

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to identity the types of physical activity narratives drawn upon by active spinal injured people. More than 50 h of semi-structured life-story interview data, collected as part of larger interdisciplinary program of disability lifestyle research, was analysed for 30 physically active male and female spinal cord injury (SCI participants. A structural narrative analysis of data identified three narrative types which people with SCI draw on: (1 exercise is restitution, (2 exercise is medicine, and (3 exercise is progressive redemption. These insights contribute new knowledge by adding a unique narrative perspective to existing cognitive understanding of physical activity behaviour in the spinal cord injured population. The implications of this narrative typology for developing effective positive behavioural change interventions are critically discussed. It is concluded that the identified narratives types may be constitutive, as well as reflective, of physical activity experiences and therefore may be a useful tool on which to base physical activity promotion initiatives.

  12. A population dynamics analysis of the interaction between adaptive regulatory T cells and antigen presenting cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Fouchet

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Regulatory T cells are central actors in the maintenance of tolerance of self-antigens or allergens and in the regulation of the intensity of the immune response during infections by pathogens. An understanding of the network of the interaction between regulatory T cells, antigen presenting cells and effector T cells is starting to emerge. Dynamical systems analysis can help to understand the dynamical properties of an interaction network and can shed light on the different tasks that can be accomplished by a network. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a mathematical model to describe a interaction network of adaptive regulatory T cells, in which mature precursor T cells may differentiate into either adaptive regulatory T cells or effector T cells, depending on the activation state of the cell by which the antigen was presented. Using an equilibrium analysis of the mathematical model we show that, for some parameters, the network has two stable equilibrium states: one in which effector T cells are strongly regulated by regulatory T cells and another in which effector T cells are not regulated because the regulatory T cell population is vanishingly small. We then simulate different types of perturbations, such as the introduction of an antigen into a virgin system, and look at the state into which the system falls. We find that whether or not the interaction network switches from the regulated (tolerant state to the unregulated state depends on the strength of the antigenic stimulus and the state from which the network has been perturbed. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings suggest that the interaction network studied in this paper plays an essential part in generating and maintaining tolerance against allergens and self-antigens.

  13. Modeling systems-level dynamics: Understanding without mechanistic explanation in integrative systems biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, Miles; Nersessian, Nancy J

    2015-02-01

    In this paper we draw upon rich ethnographic data of two systems biology labs to explore the roles of explanation and understanding in large-scale systems modeling. We illustrate practices that depart from the goal of dynamic mechanistic explanation for the sake of more limited modeling goals. These processes use abstract mathematical formulations of bio-molecular interactions and data fitting techniques which we call top-down abstraction to trade away accurate mechanistic accounts of large-scale systems for specific information about aspects of those systems. We characterize these practices as pragmatic responses to the constraints many modelers of large-scale systems face, which in turn generate more limited pragmatic non-mechanistic forms of understanding of systems. These forms aim at knowledge of how to predict system responses in order to manipulate and control some aspects of them. We propose that this analysis of understanding provides a way to interpret what many systems biologists are aiming for in practice when they talk about the objective of a "systems-level understanding." Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Dynamics in the devolopment of donkey population in Bulgaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Vlaeva

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the recent study was to trace back the development of the donkey population in Bulgaria for the period 1950 – 2015. For that purpose the data from the National Statistic Institute and FAO was processed and other sources related to the problem were analyzed. Donkeys in Bulgaria used to be a comparatively large share of the traction power animals in the past, with the occurance of the social and economical changes after 1990 their number was dramatically reduced. This process is most noticeable after 2000, when for five year period until 2005 the donkey population in Bulgaria drops down from 207000 to 90000 individuals, as in 2013 this number falls down to 35000 according to FAO.

  15. The dynamics of endemic malaria in populations of varying size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngwa, G.A.

    2001-10-01

    A mathematical model for endemic malaria involving variable human and mosquito populations is analysed. A threshold parameter R 0 exists and the disease can persist if and only if R 0 exceeds 1. R 0 is seen to be a generalisation of the basic reproduction ratio associated with the Ross-Macdonald model for malaria transmission. The disease free equilibrium always exist and is globally stable when R 0 is below 1. A perturbation analysis is used to approximate the endemic equilibrium in the important case where the disease related death rate is nonzero. A diffusion approximation is used to approximate the quasi-stationary distribution of the associated stochastic model. Numerical simulations show that when R 0 is distinctly greater than 1, the endemic deterministic equilibrium is globally stable. Furthermore, in quasi-stationarity, the stochastic process undergoes oscillations about a mean population whose size can be approximated by the stable endemic deterministic equilibrium. (author)

  16. Mathematical modeling of seed bank dynamics in population genetics

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Anna

    2017-01-01

    We study the genealogical structure of samples from a population for which any givengeneration is made up of direct descendants from one randomly chosen previousgeneration. These occur in nature when there are seed banks or egg banks allowingan individual to leave offspring several generations in the future. Kaj et al. studied in2001 the case where any given generation is made up of descendants from severalprevious generations and showed how this temporal structure in the reproductionmechanis...

  17. Population dynamics of American horseshoe crabs—historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faurby, Søren; King, Tim L.; Obst, Matthias

    2010-01-01

    with Bayesian coalescent-based methods. The analysis showed strong declines in population sizes throughout the species’ distribution except in the geographically isolated southern-most population in Mexico, where a strong increase in population size was inferred. Analyses suggested that demographic changes....... This study highlights the importance of considering both climatic changes and anthropogenic effects in efforts to understand population dynamics—a topic which is highly relevant in the ongoing assessments of the effects of climate change and overharvest....

  18. Evolutionary dynamics of fluctuating populations with strong mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David

    2013-03-01

    Evolutionary game theory with finite interacting populations is receiving increased attention, including subtle phenomena associated with number fluctuations, i.e., ``genetic drift.'' Models of cooperation and competition often utilize a simplified Moran model, with a strictly fixed total population size. We explore a more general evolutionary model with independent fluctuations in the numbers of two distinct species, in a regime characterized by ``strong mutualism.'' The model has two absorbing states, each corresponding to fixation of one of the two species, and allows exploration of the interplay between growth, competition, and mutualism. When mutualism is favored, number fluctuations eventually drive the system away from a stable fixed point, characterized by cooperation, to one of the absorbing states. Well-mixed populations will thus be taken over by a single species in a finite time, despite the bias towards cooperation. We calculate both the fixation probability and the mean fixation time as a function of the initial conditions and carrying capacities in the strong mutualism regime, using the method of matched asymptotic expansions. Our results are compared to computer simulations.

  19. The Dynamics of Population, Built-up Areas and their Evolving Associations in Gridded Population across Time and Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, F. R.; Gaughan, A. E.; Tatem, A. J.; Linard, C.; Sorichetta, A.; Nieves, J. J.; Reed, P.

    2017-12-01

    Gridded population data is commonly used to understand the `now' of hazard risk and mitigation management, health and disease modelling, and global change-, economic-, environmental-, and sustainability-related research. But to understand how human population change at local to global scales influences and is influenced by environmental changes requires novel ways of treating data and statistically describing associations of measured population counts with associated covariates. One of the most critical components in such gridded estimates is the relationship between built-up areas and population located in these areas. This relationship is rarely static and accurately estimating changes in built-areas through time and the changing human population around them is critical when applying gridded population datasets in studies of other environmental change. The research presented here discusses these issues in the context of multitemporal, gridded population data, using new technologies and sources of remotely-sensed and modeled built-up areas. We discuss applications of these data in environmental analyses and intercomparisons with other such data across scales.

  20. Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanev Sergey ...

    2012-10-01

    Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

  1. Strong persistent growth differences govern individual performance and population dynamics in a tropical forest understorey palm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.; Zuidema, P.A.; Anten, N.P.R.; Martínez-Ramos, M.

    2012-01-01

    1. Persistent variation in growth rate between individual plants can have strong effects on population dynamics as fast growers reach the reproductive size at an earlier age and thus potentially contribute more to population growth than slow growers. In tropical forests, such persistent growth

  2. Weed populations and crop rotations: exploring dynamics of a structured periodic system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mertens, S.K.; Bosch, F. van den; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

    2002-01-01

    The periodic growing of a certain set of crops in a prescribed order, called a crop rotation, is considered to be an important tool for managing weed populations. Nevertheless, the effects of crop rotations on weed population dynamics are not well understood. Explanations for rotation effects on

  3. Population dynamics under increasing environmental variability: implications of climate change for ecological network design criteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verboom, J.; Schippers, P.; Cormont, A.; Sterk, M.; Vos, C.C.; Opdam, P.F.M.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change causes an increase in variation in conditions for plant and animal populations. This increase in variation, e.g. amplified inter-annual variability in temperature and rainfall has population dynamical consequences because it raises the variation in vital

  4. Improved Understanding of Implosion Symmetry through New Experimental Techniques Connecting Hohlraum Dynamics with Laser Beam Deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph, Joseph; Salmonson, Jay; Dewald, Eduard; Bachmann, Benjamin; Edwards, John; Graziani, Frank; Hurricane, Omar; Landen, Otto; Ma, Tammy; Masse, Laurent; MacLaren, Stephen; Meezan, Nathan; Moody, John; Parrilla, Nicholas; Pino, Jesse; Sacks, Ryan; Tipton, Robert

    2017-10-01

    Understanding what affects implosion symmetry has been a challenge for scientists designing indirect drive inertial confinement fusion experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF). New experimental techniques and data analysis have been employed aimed at improving our understanding of the relationship between hohlraum dynamics and implosion symmetry. Thin wall imaging data allows for time-resolved imaging of 10 keV Au l-band x-rays providing for the first time on the NIF, a spatially resolved measurement of laser deposition with time. In the work described here, we combine measurements from the thin wall imaging with time resolved views of the interior of the hohlraum. The measurements presented are compared to hydrodynamic simulations as well as simplified physics models. The goal of this work is to form a physical picture that better explains the relationship of the hohlraum dynamics and capsule ablator on laser beam propagation and implosion symmetry. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  5. Gender consistency and flexibility: using dynamics to understand the relationship between gender and adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiDonato, Matthew D; Martin, Carol L; Hessler, Eric E; Amazeen, Polemnia G; Hanish, Laura D; Fabes, Richard A

    2012-04-01

    Controversy surrounds questions regarding the influence of being gender consistent (i.e., having and expressing gendered characteristics that are consistent with one's biological sex) versus being gender flexible (i.e., having and expressing gendered characteristics that vary from masculine to feminine as circumstances arise) on children's adjustment outcomes, such as self-esteem, positive emotion, or behavior problems. Whereas evidence supporting the consistency hypothesis is abundant, little support exists for the flexibility hypothesis. To shed new light on the flexibility hypothesis, we explored children's gendered behavior from a dynamical perspective that highlighted variability and flexibility in addition to employing a conventional approach that emphasized stability and consistency. Conventional mean-level analyses supported the consistency hypothesis by revealing that gender atypical behavior was related to greater maladjustment, and dynamical analyses supported the flexibility hypothesis by showing that flexibility of gendered behavior over time was related to positive adjustment. Integrated analyses showed that gender typical behavior was related to the adjustment of children who were behaviorally inflexible, but not for those who were flexible. These results provided a more comprehensive understanding of the relation between gendered behavior and adjustment in young children and illustrated for the first time the feasibility of applying dynamical analyses to the study of gendered behavior.

  6. Adaptation dynamics of laboratory populations of Drosophila Melanogaster to low dose chronic ionizing irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zajnullin, V.G.; Yushkova, E.A.

    2008-01-01

    In genetically non-uniform populations D. melanogaster in conditions of a chronic irradiation in a doze 10-11 about sGy/generation dynamics parameters of populations was investigated. It is established, that number of individuals in irradiated populations is lower, than in control. It is revealed, that viability of populations undergone to a chronic irradiation depends on their genotype. The gradual increase in fruitfulness, viability of individuals and decrease in a level of lethal mutations in a number of generations after of an irradiation in low doses is caused by adaptable opportunities of populations. (authors)

  7. A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

  8. Population Spatial Dynamics of Larix potaninii in Alpine Treeline Ecotone in the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia’nan Cui

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The high-altitude treeline is known to be sensitive to climate variability, and is thus considered as a bio-monitoring indicator of climate change. However, our understanding of the population dynamics and the cumulative climate-change effects on the alpine treeline ecotone in recent decades is limited. Here, we investigated the population dynamics of Larix potainii on the south- and north-facing slopes in the alpine treeline ecotone in the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, China, including treeline position, population density, and tree recruitment. Results showed that on both south- and north-facing slopes, the treeline did not show a significant advancement in the past four decades. The population was dominated by young individuals, which tend to be established in the lower areas. Larix, here, tends to be clustered, especially in the upper areas. However, population density increased dramatically only on north-facing slopes. Larix here suffer from the stressful environment, but the warmer winter due to climate warming could facilitate the vertical growth of seedlings and saplings. Aggregated spatial patterns also provide a positive feedback in ameliorating the harsh environment. The slope-climate-moisture interactions have a pronounced impact on tree recruitment, including snow-limited tree establishment on the north-facing slopes and moisture-limited tree establishment on the south-facing slopes.

  9. Revisiting reproduction and population structure and dynamics of Procambarus clarkii eight years after its introduction into Lake Trasimeno (Central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dörr A.J.M.

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding population dynamics and regulation is fundamental for predicting establishment and spread of invasive alien species. In addition, the population biology of invasive alien species offers an opportunity to study basic ecological processes. In this context, we investigated reproductive and growth plasticity in the invasive crayfish Procambarus clarkii in Lake Trasimeno (central Italy. In total, 3153 crayfish were collected monthly from June 2007 to July 2009. The molt status was assessed by evaluating the exoskeleton hardness. To assess the reproductive cycle, the gonado-somatic and wet hepato-somatic indices were calculated for females. The reproductive status of males was appraised as well. We estimated growth and longevity using the von Bertalanffy growth function, and calculated the total, natural and fishing mortality indices. We then compared our present data with those obtained from the same population eight years before. Our results indicate some changes in population dynamics and in both molting and reproductive periods since the initial invasion of the shallow lake investigated. Long-term differences in the life history of the Trasimeno population may be the result of selective pressures different from those of the native range, but may also result from colonization events and human interference caused by professional fishing activities.

  10. Mechanistic understanding of human-wildlife conflict through a novel application of dynamic occupancy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Varun R; Medhi, Kamal; Nichols, James D; Oli, Madan K

    2015-08-01

    Crop and livestock depredation by wildlife is a primary driver of human-wildlife conflict, a problem that threatens the coexistence of people and wildlife globally. Understanding mechanisms that underlie depredation patterns holds the key to mitigating conflicts across time and space. However, most studies do not consider imperfect detection and reporting of conflicts, which may lead to incorrect inference regarding its spatiotemporal drivers. We applied dynamic occupancy models to elephant crop depredation data from India between 2005 and 2011 to estimate crop depredation occurrence and model its underlying dynamics as a function of spatiotemporal covariates while accounting for imperfect detection of conflicts. The probability of detecting conflicts was consistently year). The probability of crop depredation occurrence ranged from 0.29 (SE 0.09) to 0.96 (SE 0.04). The probability that sites raided by elephants in primary period t would not be raided in primary period t + 1 varied with elevation gradient in different seasons and was influenced negatively by mean rainfall and village density and positively by distance to forests. Negative effects of rainfall variation and distance to forests best explained variation in the probability that sites not raided by elephants in primary period t would be raided in primary period t + 1. With our novel application of occupancy models, we teased apart the spatiotemporal drivers of conflicts from factors that influence how they are observed, thereby allowing more reliable inference on mechanisms underlying observed conflict patterns. We found that factors associated with increased crop accessibility and availability (e.g., distance to forests and rainfall patterns) were key drivers of elephant crop depredation dynamics. Such an understanding is essential for rigorous prediction of future conflicts, a critical requirement for effective conflict management in the context of increasing human-wildlife interactions. © 2015

  11. The population dynamics of cancer: a Darwinian perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vineis, Paolo; Berwick, Marianne

    2006-10-01

    Carcinogenesis, at least for some types of cancer, can be interpreted as the consequence of selection of mutated cells similar to what, in the theory of evolution, occurs at the population level. Instead of considering a population of organisms, we can refer to a population of cells belonging to multicellular organisms. Many carcinogens are mutagens, and the observed geographic distribution of cancer is, at least in part, attributable to environmental mutagens. However, the rapid change in risk for some cancers after migration suggests that carcinogenesis involves--in addition to mutations--some late event that most probably consists of the selection of cells already carrying mutations. We review a few examples of such selective pressures: finasteride in prostate cancer, vitamin supplementation in smokers, acquired resistance to chemotherapy, peripheral resistance to insulin, and sunlight and mutations in melanoma. A disease model for such a hypothesis is represented by Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH). Mutations can be present at birth, as in the case of PNH, and can have a frequency much higher than the occurrence of the corresponding disease (PNH or lymphocytic leukaemia in children). However, PNH does not require a mutator phenotype, only a mutant phenotype followed by selection. A characteristic feature of cancer, instead, is likely to be the development of the mutator phenotype. We propose a 'Darwinian' model of carcinogenesis. If the model is correct, it suggests that prevention is more complex than avoiding exposure to mutagens. Mutations and genetic instability can be already present at birth. Mutations can be selected in the course of life if they increase survival advantage of the cell under certain environmental circumstances. In addition, gene-environment interactions cannot be interpreted according to a simplified linear model (based on the 'analysis of variance' concept); experimental work suggests that a more comprehensive non

  12. Molecular characterization of microbial population dynamics during sildenafil citrate degradation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Felice, Bruna; Argenziano, Carolina; Guida, Marco; Trifuoggi, Marco; Russo, Francesca; Condorelli, Valerio; Inglese, Mafalda

    2009-02-01

    Little is known about pharmaceutical and personal care products pollutants (PPCPs), but there is a growing interest in how they might impact the environment and microbial communities. The widespread use of Viagra (sildenafil citrate) has attracted great attention because of the high usage rate, the unpredictable disposal and the unknown potential effects on wildlife and the environment. Until now information regarding the impact of Viagra on microbial community in water environment has not been reported. In this research, for the first time, the genetic profile of the microbial community, developing in a Viagra polluted water environment, was evaluated by means of the 16S and 18S rRNA genes, for bacteria and fungi, respectively, amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and separated using the denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) technique. The DGGE results revealed a complex microbial community structure with most of the population persisting throughout the experimental period. DNA sequences from bands observed in the different denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis profiles exhibited the highest degree of identity to uncultured bacteria and fungi found previously mainly in polluted environmental and treating bioreactors. Biotransformation ability of sildenafil citrate by the microbial pool was studied and the capability of these microorganisms to detoxify a polluted water ecosystem was assessed. The bacterial and fungal population was able to degrade sildenafil citrate entirely. Additionally, assays conducted on Daphnia magna, algal growth inhibition assay and cell viability determination on HepG2 human cells showed that biotransformation products obtained from the bacterial growth was not toxic. The higher removal efficiency for sildenafil citrate and the lack of toxicity by the biotransformation products obtained showed that the microbial community identified here represented a composite population that might have biotechnological relevance to

  13. Reinforcement learning in complementarity game and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jost, Jürgen; Li, Wei

    2014-02-01

    We systematically test and compare different reinforcement learning schemes in a complementarity game [J. Jost and W. Li, Physica A 345, 245 (2005)] played between members of two populations. More precisely, we study the Roth-Erev, Bush-Mosteller, and SoftMax reinforcement learning schemes. A modified version of Roth-Erev with a power exponent of 1.5, as opposed to 1 in the standard version, performs best. We also compare these reinforcement learning strategies with evolutionary schemes. This gives insight into aspects like the issue of quick adaptation as opposed to systematic exploration or the role of learning rates.

  14. Population dynamics of spotted owls in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakesley, J.A.; Seamans, M.E.; Conner, M.M.; Franklin, A.B.; White, Gary C.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Munton, T.E.; Shaw, D.W.H.; Keane, J.J.; Steger, G.N.; McDonald, T.L.

    2010-01-01

    The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta-analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in these mountain ranges. We estimated apparent survival probability, reproductive output, and rate of population change for spotted owls on individual study areas and for all study areas combined (meta-analysis) using model selection or model-averaging based on maximum-likelihood estimation. We followed a formal protocol to conduct this analysis that was similar to other spotted owl meta-analyses. Consistency of field and analytical methods among our studies reduced confounding methodological effects when evaluating results. We used 991 marked spotted owls in the analysis of apparent survival. Apparent survival probability was higher for adult than for subadult owls. There was little difference in apparent survival between male and female owls. Model-averaged mean estimates of apparent survival probability of adult owls varied from 0.811 ?? 0.021 for females at LAS to 0.890 ?? 0.016 for males at SKC. Apparent survival increased over time for owls of all age classes at LAS and SIE, for adults at ELD, and for second-year subadults and adults at SKC. The meta-analysis of apparent survival, which included only adult owls, confirmed an increasing trend in survival over time. Survival rates were higher for owls on SKC than on the other study areas. We analyzed data

  15. Types of population dynamics in settlements of Zaplanje area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martinović Marija

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present the main directions of changes in the spatial-demographic settlements organization of Zaplanje, which, due to rapid demographic recession since the 60s of the 20th century, is the strongest depopulation area with the oldest population in Serbia. This research aims is to determine the main types of changes in demographic development of the settlements and indirectly reveals key issues of the sustainable development of Zaplanje settlements and revitalization of villages. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 176017

  16. Phylogeography, population dynamics, and molecular evolution of European bat lyssaviruses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, P.L.; Holmes, E.C.; Larrous, F.

    2005-01-01

    origin, and population growth rates of EBLV-1. Our study encompassed data from 12 countries collected over a time span of 35 years and focused on the glycoprotein (G) and nucleoprotein (N) genes. We show that although the two subtypes of EBLV-1-EBLV-1a and EBLV-lb-have both grown at a low exponential...... in EBLV-1b. Our inferred rate of nucleotide substitution in EBLV-1, approximately 5 X 10(-5) substitutions per site per year, was also one of the lowest recorded for RNA viruses and implied that the current genetic diversity in the virus arose 500 to 750 years ago. We propose that the slow evolution...

  17. Direct characterization of chaotic and stochastic dynamics in a population model with strong periodicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tung Wenwen; Qi Yan; Gao, J.B.; Cao Yinhe; Billings, Lora

    2005-01-01

    In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that noise and determinism may have comparable but different influences on population dynamics. However, no simple analysis methods have been introduced into ecology which can readily characterize those impacts. In this paper, we study a population model with strong periodicity and both with and without noise. The noise-free model generates both quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics for certain parameter values. Due to the strong periodicity, however, the generated chaotic dynamics have not been satisfactorily described. The dynamics becomes even more complicated when there is noise. Characterizing the chaotic and stochastic dynamics in this model thus represents a challenging problem. Here we show how the chaotic dynamics can be readily characterized by the direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos developed by [Gao JB, Zheng ZM. Europhys. Lett. 1994;25:485] and how the influence of noise on quasi-periodic motions can be characterized as asymmetric diffusions wandering along the quasi-periodic orbit. It is hoped that the introduced methods will be useful in studying other population models as well as population time series obtained both in field and laboratory experiments

  18. The basic approach to age-structured population dynamics models, methods and numerics

    CERN Document Server

    Iannelli, Mimmo

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasises the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology, and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modelling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students an...

  19. Effects of wind farms on harbour porpoise behaviour and population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Tougaard, Jakob; Teilmann, Jonas

    We developed an individual-based simulation model in order to study the cumulative impacts of wind farms and ship traffic on the long-term survival and population dynamics of the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in Kattegat and the Belt Seas. The model is based on knowl- edge of the porpoises...... at distances >1 km. Our simulations suggest that operating wind farms and wind farms under construction do not affect the size or dynamics of the harbour porpoise population in Kattegat. Ship traffic may, in contrast, cause the population size to decrease....

  20. The population and evolutionary dynamics of homologous gene recombination in bacterial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce R Levin

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available In bacteria, recombination is a rare event, not a part of the reproductive process. Nevertheless, recombination -- broadly defined to include the acquisition of genes from external sources, i.e., horizontal gene transfer (HGT -- plays a central role as a source of variation for adaptive evolution in many species of bacteria. Much of niche expansion, resistance to antibiotics and other environmental stresses, virulence, and other characteristics that make bacteria interesting and problematic, is achieved through the expression of genes and genetic elements obtained from other populations of bacteria of the same and different species, as well as from eukaryotes and archaea. While recombination of homologous genes among members of the same species has played a central role in the development of the genetics and molecular biology of bacteria, the contribution of homologous gene recombination (HGR to bacterial evolution is not at all clear. Also, not so clear are the selective pressures responsible for the evolution and maintenance of transformation, the only bacteria-encoded form of HGR. Using a semi-stochastic simulation of mutation, recombination, and selection within bacterial populations and competition between populations, we explore (1 the contribution of HGR to the rate of adaptive evolution in these populations and (2 the conditions under which HGR will provide a bacterial population a selective advantage over non-recombining or more slowly recombining populations. The results of our simulation indicate that, under broad conditions: (1 HGR occurring at rates in the range anticipated for bacteria like Streptococcus pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, Haemophilus influenzae, and Bacillus subtilis will accelerate the rate at which a population adapts to environmental conditions; (2 once established in a population, selection for this capacity to increase rates of adaptive evolution can maintain bacteria-encoded mechanisms of recombination and prevent

  1. Integrating stochastic age-structured population dynamics into complex fisheries economic models for management evaluations: the North Sea saithe fishery as a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simons, S.L.; Bartelings, H.; Hamon, K.G.; Kempf, A.J.; Doring, R.; Temming, A.

    2014-01-01

    There is growing interest in bioeconomic models as tools for understanding pathways of fishery behaviour in order to assess the impact of alternative policies on natural resources. A model system is presented that combines stochastic age-structured population dynamics with complex fisheries

  2. Potential impact of harvesting on the population dynamics of two epiphytic bromeliads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana; Valverde, Teresa

    2014-08-01

    Large numbers of epiphytes are extracted from cloud forests for ornamental use and illegal trade in Latin America. We examined the potential effects of different harvesting regimes on the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliads Tillandsia multicaulis and Tillandsia punctulata. The population dynamics of these species were studied over a 2-year period in a tropical montane cloud forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Prospective and retrospective analyses were used to identify which demographic processes and life-cycle stages make the largest relative contribution to variation in population growth rate (λ). The effect of simulated harvesting levels on population growth rates was analysed for both species. λ of both populations was highly influenced by survival (stasis), to a lesser extent by growth, and only slightly by fecundity. Vegetative growth played a central role in the population dynamics of these organisms. The λ value of the studied populations did not differ significantly from unity: T. multicaulis λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.982 (0.897-1.060) and T. punctulata λ = 0.967 (0.815-1.051), suggesting population stability. However, numerical simulation of different levels of extraction showed that λ would drop substantially even under very low (2%) harvesting levels. Matrix analysis revealed that T. multicaulis and T. punctulata populations are likely to decline and therefore commercial harvesting would be unsustainable. Based on these findings, management recommendations are outlined.

  3. An obligatory bacterial mutualism in a multi-drug environment exhibits strong oscillatory population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conwill, Arolyn; Yurtsev, Eugene; Gore, Jeff

    2014-03-01

    A common mechanism of antibiotic resistance in bacteria involves the production of an enzyme that inactivates the antibiotic. By inactivating the antibiotic, resistant cells can protect other cells in the population that would otherwise be sensitive to the drug. In a multidrug environment, an obligatory mutualism arises because populations of different strains rely on each other to breakdown antibiotics in the environment. Here, we experimentally track the population dynamics of two E. coli strains in the presence of two different antibiotics: ampicillin and chloramphenicol. Together the strains are able to grow in antibiotic concentrations that inhibit growth of either one of the strains alone. Although mutualisms are often thought to stabilize population dynamics, we observe strong oscillatory dynamics even when there is long-term coexistence between the two strains. We expect that our results will provide insight into the evolution of antibiotic resistance and, more generally, the evolutionary origin of phenotypic diversity, cooperation, and ecological stability.

  4. Understanding the time dependence of atomic level populations in evolving plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judge, Philip G.

    2005-01-01

    The time dependence of atomic level populations in evolving plasmas is studied using an eigenfunction expansion of the non-LTE rate equations. The work aims to develop understanding without the need for, and as an aid to, numerical solutions. The discussion is mostly limited to linear systems, especially those for optically thin plasmas, but the implicitly non-linear case of non-LTE radiative transfer is briefly discussed. Eigenvalue spectra for typical atomic systems are examined using results compiled by Hearon. Diagonal dominance and sign symmetry of rate matrices show that just one eigenvalue is zero (corresponding to the equilibrium state), that the remaining eigenvalues have negative real parts, and that oscillations, if any, are necessarily damped. Gershgorin's theorems are used to show that many eigenvalues are determined by the radiative lifetimes of certain levels, because of diagonal dominance. With other properties, this demonstrates the existence of both 'slow' and 'fast' time-scales, where the 'slow' evolution is controlled by properties of meta-stable levels. It is shown that, when collisions are present, Rydberg states contribute only 'fast' eigenvalues. This justifies use of the quasi-static approximation, in which atoms containing just meta-stable levels can suffice to determine the atomic evolution on time-scales long compared with typical radiative lifetimes. Analytic solutions for two- and three-level atoms are used to examine the basis of earlier intuitive ideas, such as the 'ionizing plasma' approximation. The power and limitations of Gershgorin's theorems are examined through examples taken from the solar atmosphere. The methods should help in the planning and interpretation of both experimental and numerical experiments in which atomic evolution is important. While the examples are astrophysical, the methods and results are applicable to plasmas in general

  5. Spatial and temporal dynamics of the genetic organization of small mammal populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.H.; Manlove, M.N.; Joule, J.

    1978-01-01

    A functional population is a group of organisms and their offspring that contributes to a common gene pool within a certain area and time period. It is also the unit of evolution and should be viewed both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Selection, drift, dispersal, and mutation can alter the composition of populations. Spatial heterogeneity in allele frequencies argues for a conceptual model that has a series of relatively small populations semi-isolated from one another. Because of the relatively high levels of genetic variability characteristic of most mammalian species, significant amounts of gene flow between these spatially subdivided populations must occur when longer time periods are considered. Fluctuations in the genetic structure of populations seem to be important in altering the fitness of the individuals within the populations. The interaction of populations through gene flow is important in changing the levels of intrapopulational genetic variability. Populations can be characterized as existing on a continuum from relatively stable to unstable numbers and by other associated changes in their characteristics. Temporal changes in allele frequency occur in a variety of mammals. Conceptually, a species can be viewed as a series of dynamic populations that vary in numbers and quality in both a spatial and temporal context even over short distances and time periods. Short term changes in the quality of individuals in a population can be important in altering the short term dynamics of a population

  6. Population dynamics and habitat sharing of natural populations of Caenorhabditis elegans and C. briggsae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Félix Marie-Anne

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is a major model organism in laboratory biology. Very little is known, however, about its ecology, including where it proliferates. In the past, C. elegans was mainly isolated from human-made compost heaps, where it was overwhelmingly found in the non-feeding dauer diapause stage. Results C. elegans and C. briggsae were found in large, proliferating populations in rotting plant material (fruits and stems in several locations in mainland France. Both species were found to co-occur in samples isolated from a given plant species. Population counts spanned a range from one to more than 10,000 Caenorhabditis individuals on a single fruit or stem. Some populations with an intermediate census size (10 to 1,000 contained no dauer larvae at all, whereas larger populations always included some larvae in the pre-dauer or dauer stages. We report on associated micro-organisms, including pathogens. We systematically sampled a spatio-temporally structured set of rotting apples in an apple orchard in Orsay over four years. C. elegans and C. briggsae were abundantly found every year, but their temporal distributions did not coincide. C. briggsae was found alone in summer, whereas both species co-occurred in early fall and C. elegans was found alone in late fall. Competition experiments in the laboratory at different temperatures show that C. briggsae out-competes C. elegans at high temperatures, whereas C. elegans out-competes C. briggsae at lower temperatures. Conclusions C. elegans and C. briggsae proliferate in the same rotting vegetal substrates. In contrast to previous surveys of populations in compost heaps, we found fully proliferating populations with no dauer larvae. The temporal sharing of the habitat by the two species coincides with their temperature preference in the laboratory, with C. briggsae populations growing faster than C. elegans at higher temperatures, and vice at lower temperatures.

  7. Effects of Structural Transparency in System Dynamics Simulators on Performance and Understanding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgit Kopainsky

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Prior exploration is an instructional strategy that has improved performance and understanding in system-dynamics-based simulators, but only to a limited degree. This study investigates whether model transparency, that is, showing users the internal structure of models, can extend the prior exploration strategy and improve learning even more. In an experimental study, participants in a web-based simulation learned about and managed a small developing nation. All participants were provided the prior exploration strategy but only half received prior exploration embedded in a structure-behavior diagram intended to make the underlying model’s structure more transparent. Participants provided with the more transparent strategy demonstrated better understanding of the underlying model. Their performance, however, was the equivalent to those in the less transparent condition. Combined with previous studies, our results suggest that while prior exploration is a beneficial strategy for both performance and understanding, making the model structure transparent with structure-behavior diagrams is more limited in its effect.

  8. Individual-Based Modeling of Tuberculosis in a User-Friendly Interface: Understanding the Epidemiological Role of Population Heterogeneity in a City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prats, Clara; Montañola-Sales, Cristina; Gilabert-Navarro, Joan F; Valls, Joaquim; Casanovas-Garcia, Josep; Vilaplana, Cristina; Cardona, Pere-Joan; López, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    For millennia tuberculosis (TB) has shown a successful strategy to survive, making it one of the world's deadliest infectious diseases. This resilient behavior is based not only on remaining hidden in most of the infected population, but also by showing slow evolution in most sick people. The course of the disease within a population is highly related to its heterogeneity. Thus, classic epidemiological approaches with a top-down perspective have not succeeded in understanding its dynamics. In the past decade a few individual-based models were built, but most of them preserved a top-down view that makes it difficult to study a heterogeneous population. We propose an individual-based model developed with a bottom-up approach to studying the dynamics of pulmonary TB in a certain population, considered constant. Individuals may belong to the following classes: healthy, infected, sick, under treatment, and treated with a probability of relapse. Several variables and parameters account for their age, origin (native or immigrant), immunodeficiency, diabetes, and other risk factors (smoking and alcoholism). The time within each infection state is controlled, and sick individuals may show a cavitated disease or not that conditions infectiousness. It was implemented in NetLogo because it allows non-modelers to perform virtual experiments with a user-friendly interface. The simulation was conducted with data from Ciutat Vella, a district of Barcelona with an incidence of 67 TB cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2013. Several virtual experiments were performed to relate the disease dynamics with the structure of the infected subpopulation (e.g., the distribution of infected times). Moreover, the short-term effect of health control policies on modifying that structure was studied. Results show that the characteristics of the population are crucial for the local epidemiology of TB. The developed user-friendly tool is ready to test control strategies of disease in any city in the

  9. Global dynamics of oscillator populations under common noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, W.; Pikovsky, A.; Matias, M. A.; Colet, P.

    2012-07-01

    Common noise acting on a population of identical oscillators can synchronize them. We develop a description of this process which is not limited to the states close to synchrony, but provides a global picture of the evolution of the ensembles. The theory is based on the Watanabe-Strogatz transformation, allowing us to obtain closed stochastic equations for the global variables. We show that at the initial stage, the order parameter grows linearly in time, while at the later stages the convergence to synchrony is exponentially fast. Furthermore, we extend the theory to nonidentical ensembles with the Lorentzian distribution of natural frequencies and determine the stationary values of the order parameter in dependence on driving noise and mismatch.

  10. Optimal superadiabatic population transfer and gates by dynamical phase corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vepsäläinen, A.; Danilin, S.; Paraoanu, G. S.

    2018-04-01

    In many quantum technologies adiabatic processes are used for coherent quantum state operations, offering inherent robustness to errors in the control parameters. The main limitation is the long operation time resulting from the requirement of adiabaticity. The superadiabatic method allows for faster operation, by applying counterdiabatic driving that corrects for excitations resulting from the violation of the adiabatic condition. In this article we show how to construct the counterdiabatic Hamiltonian in a system with forbidden transitions by using two-photon processes and how to correct for the resulting time-dependent ac-Stark shifts in order to enable population transfer with unit fidelity. We further demonstrate that superadiabatic stimulated Raman passage can realize a robust unitary NOT-gate between the ground state and the second excited state of a three-level system. The results can be readily applied to a three-level transmon with the ladder energy level structure.

  11. Population dynamics of the Kaminuriak caribou herd, 1968 - 1985

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas C. Heard

    1986-06-01

    Full Text Available The Kaminuraik caribou herd apparently declined from about 120 000 animals in 1950 to 63 000 in 1968. Beginning in 1968 documentation of herd trend was based on the estimate of the number of breeding (pregnant and post-partum females on the calving ground during the birth peak. It appeared as if we understood the basic population processes responsible for the decline when we correctly predicted a drop from 14 800 breeding females in 1977 to 13 000 in 1980. However a three-fold increase, to 41 000 breeding females in 1982, and continued growth thereafter, was unanticipated. Most of that increase must have resulted from an immigration of cows to the herd's traditional calving ground around Kaminuriak Lake, although increased birth rates, and increased survival rates also contributed to herd growth. Immigrant cows probably came from the northeastern mainland of the NWT

  12. Ecotypic variation in population dynamics of reintroduced bighorn sheep

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleich, Vernon C.; Sargeant, Glen A.; Wiedmann, Brett P.

    2018-01-01

    Selection of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) for translocation historically has been motivated by preservation of subspecific purity rather than by adaptation of source stocks to similar environments. Our objective was to estimate cause‐specific, annual, and age‐specific mortality of introduced bighorn sheep that originated at low elevations in southern British Columbia, Canada (BC ecotype), or in the Missouri River Breaks region of central Montana, USA (MT ecotype). In North Dakota, USA, mortality was similar and typically low for adult female bighorn sheep from Montana (0.09 ± 0.029 [SE]) and British Columbia (0.08 ± 0.017) during 2000–2016. Median life expectancy was 11 years for females that reached adulthood (2 yrs old); however, mortality accelerated with age and reached 86% by age 16. Mortalities resulted primarily from low rates of predation, disease, accidents, and unknown natural causes (<0.04 [upper 90% CI]). Similar survival rates of female bighorn sheep from female bighorn sheep from British Columbia and Montana, coupled with greater recruitment of bighorn sheep from Montana, resulted in a greater projected rate of increase for the MT ecotype (λ = 1.21) than for the BC ecotype (1.02), and a more youthful age structure. These results support translocation of bighorn sheep from areas that are environmentally similar to areas that will be stocked. Potential benefits include more rapid population growth, greater resilience to and more rapid recovery from density‐independent losses, an increased possibility that rapidly growing populations will expand into adjacent habitat, increased hunter opportunity, increased connectivity among herds, and a more complete restoration of ecosystem processes.

  13. Ecotypic variation in population dynamics of reintroduced bighorn sheep

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleich, Vernon C.; Sargeant, Glen A.; Wiedmann, Brett P.

    2018-01-01

    Selection of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) for translocation historically has been motivated by preservation of subspecific purity rather than by adaptation of source stocks to similar environments. Our objective was to estimate cause‐specific, annual, and age‐specific mortality of introduced bighorn sheep that originated at low elevations in southern British Columbia, Canada (BC ecotype), or in the Missouri River Breaks region of central Montana, USA (MT ecotype). In North Dakota, USA, mortality was similar and typically low for adult female bighorn sheep from Montana (0.09 ± 0.029 [SE]) and British Columbia (0.08 ± 0.017) during 2000–2016. Median life expectancy was 11 years for females that reached adulthood (2 yrs old); however, mortality accelerated with age and reached 86% by age 16. Mortalities resulted primarily from low rates of predation, disease, accidents, and unknown natural causes (recruitment of bighorn sheep from Montana, resulted in a greater projected rate of increase for the MT ecotype (λ = 1.21) than for the BC ecotype (1.02), and a more youthful age structure. These results support translocation of bighorn sheep from areas that are environmentally similar to areas that will be stocked. Potential benefits include more rapid population growth, greater resilience to and more rapid recovery from density‐independent losses, an increased possibility that rapidly growing populations will expand into adjacent habitat, increased hunter opportunity, increased connectivity among herds, and a more complete restoration of ecosystem processes.

  14. Coupling environmental, social and economic models to understand land-use change dynamics in the Mekong Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexis eDrogoul

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The Vietnamese Mekong Delta has undergone in recent years a considerable transformation in agricultural land-use, fueled by a boom of the exportation, an increase of population, a focus on intensive crops, but also environmental factors like sea level rise or the progression of soil salinity. These transformations have been, however, largely misestimated by the ten-year agricultural plans designed at the provincial levels, on the predictions of which, though, most of the large-scale investments (irrigation infrastructures, protection against flooding or salinity intrusion, and so on are normally planned. This situation raises the question of how to explain the divergence between the predictions used as a basis for these plans and the actual situation. Answering it could, as a matter of fact, offer some insights on the dynamics at play and hopefully allow designing them more accurately.The dynamics of land-use change at a scale of a region results from the interactions between heterogeneous actors and factors at different scales, among them institutional policies, individual farming choices, land-cover and environmental changes, economic conditions, social dynamics, just to name a few. Understanding its evolution, for example, in this case, to better support agricultural planning, therefore requires the use of models that can represent the individual contributions of each actor or factor, and of course their interactions.We address this question through the design of an integrated hybrid model of land-use change in a specific and carefully chosen case study, which relies on the central hypothesis that the main force driving land-use change is actually the individual choices made by farmers at their local level. Farmers are the actors who decide (or not to switch from one culture to another and the shifts observed at more global levels (village, district, province, region are considered, in this model, as a consequence of the aggregation of these

  15. The roles of competition and habitat in the dynamics of populations and species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackulic, Charles Brandon; Reid, Janice; Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.; Davis, Raymond; Forsman, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The role of competition in structuring biotic communities at fine spatial scales is well known from detailed process-based studies. Our understanding of competition's importance at broader scales is less resolved and mainly based on static species distribution maps. Here, we bridge this gap by examining the joint occupancy dynamics of an invading (barred owl: Strix varia) and a resident species (Northern spotted owl: Strix occidentalis caurina) in a 1000 km2 study area over a 22 - year period. Past studies of these competitors have focused on the dynamics of one species at a time, hindering efforts to parse out the roles of habitat and competition and to forecast the future of the resident species. In addition, while these studies accounted for the imperfect detection of the focal species, no multiseason analysis of these species has accounted for the imperfect detection of the secondary species, potentially biasing inference. We analyze survey data using models that combine the general multistate-multiseason occupancy modeling framework with autologistic modeling - allowing us to account for important aspects of our study system. We find that local extinction probability increases for each species when the other is present; however, the effect of the invader on the resident is greater. Although the species prefer different habitats, these habitats are highly correlated at the patch scale and the impacts of invader on the resident are greatest in patches that would otherwise be optimal. As a consequence, competition leads to a weaker relationship between habitat and Northern spotted owl occupancy. Colonization and extinction rates of the invader are closely related to neighborhood occupancy, and over the first half of the study the availability of colonists limited the rate of population growth. Competition is likely to exclude the resident species both through its immediate effects on local extinction, and by indirectly lowering colonization rates as Northern

  16. The roles of competition and habitat in the dynamics of populations and species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackulic, Charles B; Reid, Janice; Nichols, James D; Hines, James E; Davis, Raymond; Forsman, Eric

    2014-02-01

    The role of competition in structuring biotic communities at fine spatial scales is well known from detailed process-based studies. Our understanding of competition's importance at broader scales is less resolved and mainly based on static species distribution maps. Here, we bridge this gap by examining the joint occupancy dynamics of an invading species (Barred Owl, Strix varia) and a resident species (Northern Spotted Owl, Strix occidentalis caurina) in a 1000-km study area over a 22-year period. Past studies of these competitors have focused on the dynamics of one species at a time, hindering efforts to parse out the roles of habitat and competition and to forecast the future of the resident species. In addition, while these studies accounted for the imperfect detection of the focal species, no multi-season analysis of these species has accounted for the imperfect detection of the secondary species, potentially biasing inference. We analyzed survey data using models that combine the general multistate-multi-season occupancy modeling framework with autologistic modeling, allowing us to account for important aspects of our study system. We found that local extinction probability increases for each species when the other is present; however, the effect of the invader on the resident is greater. Although the species prefer different habitats, these habitats are highly correlated at the patch scale, and the impacts of invader on the resident are greatest in patches that would otherwise be optimal. As a consequence, competition leads to a weaker relationship between habitat and Northern Spotted Owl occupancy. Colonization and extinction rates of the invader are closely related to neighborhood occupancy, and over the first half of the study the availability of colonists limited the rate of population growth. Competition is likely to exclude the resident species, both through its immediate effects on local extinction and by indirectly lowering colonization rates as

  17. Understanding strong-field coherent control: Measuring single-atom versus collective dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trallero-Herrero, Carlos; Weinacht, Thomas; Spanner, Michael

    2006-01-01

    We compare the results of two strong field coherent control experiments: one which optimizes multi-photon population transfer in atomic sodium (from the 3s to the 4s state, measured by spontaneous emission from the 3p-3s transition) with one that optimizes stimulated emission on the 3p-3s transition in an ensemble of sodium atoms. Both experiments make use of intense, shaped ultrafast laser pulses discovered by a Genetic Algorithm inside a learning control loop. Optimization leads to improvements in the spontaneous and stimulated emission yields of about 4 and 10 4 , respectively, over an unshaped pulse. We interpret these results by modeling both the single atom dynamics as well as the stimulated emission buildup through numerical integration of Schroedinger's and Maxwell's equations. Our interpretation leads to the conclusion that modest yields for controlling single quantum systems can lead to dramatic effects whenever an ensemble of such systems acts collectively following controlled impulsive excitation

  18. Genes, communities & invasive species: understanding the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of host-pathogen interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burdon, J J; Thrall, P H; Ericson, L

    2013-08-01

    Reciprocal interactions between hosts and pathogens drive ecological, epidemiological and co-evolutionary trajectories, resulting in complex patterns of diversity at population, species and community levels. Recent results confirm the importance of negative frequency-dependent rather than 'arms-race' processes in the evolution of individual host-pathogen associations. At the community level, complex relationships between species abundance and diversity dampen or alter pathogen impacts. Invasive pathogens challenge these controls reflecting the earliest stages of evolutionary associations (akin to arms-race) where disease effects may be so great that they overwhelm the host's and community's ability to respond. Viewing these different stabilization/destabilization phases as a continuum provides a valuable perspective to assessment of the role of genetics and ecology in the dynamics of both natural and invasive host-pathogen associations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Dynamic of age structure and the number of population in Ozersk and affecting factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panchenko, O.; Rtischeva, M.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this work was an evaluation of the dynamics of age structure and population for the city of Ozyorsk, based in connection with creation of the nuclear plant Mayak, the 'first-born' of the Russian atomic industry. The obtained results indicate that since 1950 demographic processes in Ozyorsk were more favorable, in spite of fact that it was in this period workers of Mayak nuclear plant and population as a whole, got comparatively greater radiation doses than in the following years. However, dynamics the number of population has an unfavorable trend to reduce, connected with sharp worsening of social-economic situation in the town as a whole, as a result of the economic reforms in the country. Reduction of the number of population in the town is expressed by the negative natural growth and by reducing migration processes, which resulted in sharp decrease of the general growth of population, and in its stopping in 1998. (authors)

  20. Spatial structures in a simple model of population dynamics for parasite-host interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dong, J. J.; Skinner, B.; Breecher, N.; Schmittmann, B.; Zia, R. K. P.

    2015-08-01

    Spatial patterning can be crucially important for understanding the behavior of interacting populations. Here we investigate a simple model of parasite and host populations in which parasites are random walkers that must come into contact with a host in order to reproduce. We focus on the spatial arrangement of parasites around a single host, and we derive using analytics and numerical simulations the necessary conditions placed on the parasite fecundity and lifetime for the populations long-term survival. We also show that the parasite population can be pushed to extinction by a large drift velocity, but, counterintuitively, a small drift velocity generally increases the parasite population.

  1. Understanding and Mastering Dynamics in Computing Grids Processing Moldable Tasks with User-Level Overlay

    CERN Document Server

    Moscicki, Jakub Tomasz

    Scientic communities are using a growing number of distributed systems, from lo- cal batch systems, community-specic services and supercomputers to general-purpose, global grid infrastructures. Increasing the research capabilities for science is the raison d'^etre of such infrastructures which provide access to diversied computational, storage and data resources at large scales. Grids are rather chaotic, highly heterogeneous, de- centralized systems where unpredictable workloads, component failures and variability of execution environments are commonplace. Understanding and mastering the hetero- geneity and dynamics of such distributed systems is prohibitive for end users if they are not supported by appropriate methods and tools. The time cost to learn and use the interfaces and idiosyncrasies of dierent distributed environments is another challenge. Obtaining more reliable application execution times and boosting parallel speedup are important to increase the research capabilities of scientic communities. L...

  2. CONTROL PARAMETERS FOR UNDERSTANDING AND PREVENTING PROCESS IMBALANCES IN BIOGAS PLANTS. EMPHAS IS ON VFA DYNAMICS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsø Nielsen, Henrik

    environmental changes differ widely between the different groups. As a consequence of this, an unrestrained reactor operation can lead to disturbances in the balance between the different microbial groups, which might lead to reactor failure. Therefore, reliable parameters and tools for efficient process...... control and understanding are necessary. The work of present study was directed towards this challenge. Initially, the response of the anaerobic digestion process to various types of process imbalances was investigated with special focus on volatile fatty acid dynamics (VFA), methane production and pH...... of process imbalances in biogas plants. At Danish full-scale biogas plants the biogas production is normally the only continuously measured parameter. In order to examine the usability of propionate as control parameter a reactor experiment was constructed in which the reactor operation either was carried...

  3. Analysis of Ant Colony Optimization and Population-Based Evolutionary Algorithms on Dynamic Problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lissovoi, Andrei

    the dynamic optimum for finite alphabets up to size μ, while MMAS is able to do so for any finite alphabet size. Parallel Evolutionary Algorithms on Maze. We prove that while a (1 + λ) EA is unable to track the optimum of the dynamic fitness function Maze for offspring population size up to λ = O(n1-ε......This thesis presents new running time analyses of nature-inspired algorithms on various dynamic problems. It aims to identify and analyse the features of algorithms and problem classes which allow efficient optimization to occur in the presence of dynamic behaviour. We consider the following...... settings: λ-MMAS on Dynamic Shortest Path Problems. We investigate how in-creasing the number of ants simulated per iteration may help an ACO algorithm to track optimum in a dynamic problem. It is shown that while a constant number of ants per-vertex is sufficient to track some oscillations, there also...

  4. Elevated nonlinearity as an indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dakos, Vasilis; Glaser, Sarah M; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Sugihara, George

    2017-03-01

    Populations occasionally experience abrupt changes, such as local extinctions, strong declines in abundance or transitions from stable dynamics to strongly irregular fluctuations. Although most of these changes have important ecological and at times economic implications, they remain notoriously difficult to detect in advance. Here, we study changes in the stability of populations under stress across a variety of transitions. Using a Ricker-type model, we simulate shifts from stable point equilibrium dynamics to cyclic and irregular boom-bust oscillations as well as abrupt shifts between alternative attractors. Our aim is to infer the loss of population stability before such shifts based on changes in nonlinearity of population dynamics. We measure nonlinearity by comparing forecast performance between linear and nonlinear models fitted on reconstructed attractors directly from observed time series. We compare nonlinearity to other suggested leading indicators of instability (variance and autocorrelation). We find that nonlinearity and variance increase in a similar way prior to the shifts. By contrast, autocorrelation is strongly affected by oscillations. Finally, we test these theoretical patterns in datasets of fisheries populations. Our results suggest that elevated nonlinearity could be used as an additional indicator to infer changes in the dynamics of populations under stress. © 2017 The Author(s).

  5. Understanding Action and Adventure Sports Participation-An Ecological Dynamics Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Immonen, Tuomas; Brymer, Eric; Orth, Dominic; Davids, Keith; Feletti, Francesco; Liukkonen, Jarmo; Jaakkola, Timo

    2017-12-01

    Previous research has considered action and adventure sports using a variety of associated terms and definitions which has led to confusing discourse and contradictory research findings. Traditional narratives have typically considered participation exclusively as the pastime of young people with abnormal characteristics or personalities having unhealthy and pathological tendencies to take risks because of the need for thrill, excitement or an adrenaline 'rush'. Conversely, recent research has linked even the most extreme forms of action and adventure sports to positive physical and psychological health and well-being outcomes. Here, we argue that traditional frameworks have led to definitions, which, as currently used by researchers, ignore key elements constituting the essential merit of these sports. In this paper, we suggest that this lack of conceptual clarity in understanding cognitions, perception and action in action and adventure sports requires a comprehensive explanatory framework, ecological dynamics which considers person-environment interactions from a multidisciplinary perspective. Action and adventure sports can be fundamentally conceptualized as activities which flourish through creative exploration of novel movement experiences, continuously expanding and evolving beyond predetermined environmental, physical, psychological or sociocultural boundaries. The outcome is the emergence of a rich variety of participation styles and philosophical differences within and across activities. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (a) to point out some limitations of existing research on action and adventure sports; (b) based on key ideas from emerging research and an ecological dynamics approach, to propose a holistic multidisciplinary model for defining and understanding action and adventure sports that may better guide future research and practical implications.

  6. Remotely Sensing Larval Population Dynamics of Rice Field Anophelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Louisa R.; Dister, Sheri W.; Wood, Byron L.; Washino, Robert K.

    1997-01-01

    The primary objective of both studies was to determine if RS and GIS techniques could be used to distinguish between high and low larval-producing rice fields in California. Results of the first study suggested that early-season green-up and proximity to livestock pastures were positively correlated with high larval abundance. Based on the early-season spectral differences between high and low larval-producing fields, it appeared that canopy development and tillering influenced mosquito habitat quality. At that time, rice fields consisted of a mixture of plants and water, a combination that allowed An. freeborni females to lay eggs in partial sunlight, protected from both predators and wind. This established a population earlier in the season than in other, 'less-green' fields where tillering and plant emergence was too minimal for ovipositioning. The study also indicated the importance of the distance that a mosquito would have to fly in order to take a bloodmeal prior to ovipositing. These associations were fully explored in an expanded study two years later. The second study confirmed the positive relationship between early season canopy development and larval abundance, and also demonstrated the relationship between abundance and distance-to-pasture. The association between greenness (as measured using NDVI), distance-to-pasture, and abundance is illustrated. The second study also indicated the siginificance of the landscape context of rice fields for larval production. Fields that included opportunities for feeding and resting within the flight range of the mosquito had higher abundances than did fields that were in a homogeneous rice area.

  7. Mesola red deer: physical characteristics, population dynamics and conservation perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Mattioli

    2003-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The biometry, demography and genetics of red deer Cervus elaphus of Mesola Wood (NE Italy, are presented and discussed in relation to the conservation of this population. Modest body size, low stature, oversimplified antlers and a low reproductive performance characterise red deer from Mesola Wood. The mitochondrial genome showed a private haplotype, different from other red deer in Italy and central Europe. The uniqueness of this nucleus and its biogeographic importance make a long-term conservation plan particularly urgent. Management measures such as fallow deer reduction, winter feeding and pasture mowing were tested, giving promising results. The physical condition of the animals improved, calf and adult mortality declined, and a few cases of antlers with bez tine or crown were reported in this study after four decades. Riassunto Il Cervo della Mesola: caratteristiche fisiche, dinamica di popolazione e prospettive di conservazione La biometria, la demografia e la genetica del cervo Cervus elaphus del Gran Bosco della Mesola (Italia nord-orientale, vengono presentate e discusse in relazione alla salvaguardia di questa popolazione. Il cervo della Mesola risulta caratterizzato dalle modeste dimensioni corporee, dalla struttura semplificata dei palchi e da un basso rendimento riproduttivo. L'analisi del genoma mitocondriale ha evidenziato un aplotipo privato, diverso da quello degli altri cervi italiani e centroeuropei. L'unicità di questo nucleo e la sua importanza biogeografica rendono particolarmente urgente un piano di conservazione a lungo termine. Sono stati verificati interventi gestionali quali la riduzione numerica dei daini, il foraggiamento invernale e lo sfalcio delle superfici a pascolo, con risultati promettenti. Le condizioni fisiche degli animali sono migliorate, la mortalità tra i piccoli e gli adulti è diminuita, e sono stati registrati alcuni

  8. Population dynamics of Greater Scaup breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Fondell, Thomas F.; Morse, Julie A.

    2006-01-01

    Populations of greater scaup (Aythya marila) remained relatively stable during a period when populations of lesser scaup (A. affinis) have declined from historic levels. To assist in describing these differences in population trends, from 1991 through 2000, we studied the survival, nesting ecology, and productivity of greater scaup on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, to develop a model of population dynamics. We located nests, radio-marked females for renesting studies, estimated duckling survival, and leg-banded females to examine nest site fidelity and annual survival.

  9. CALCULATING ROTATING HYDRODYNAMIC AND MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC WAVES TO UNDERSTAND MAGNETIC EFFECTS ON DYNAMICAL TIDES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Xing, E-mail: xing.wei@sjtu.edu.cn [Institute of Natural Sciences and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Shanghai Jiao Tong University (China); Princeton University Observatory, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

    2016-09-01

    To understand magnetic effects on dynamical tides, we study the rotating magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flow driven by harmonic forcing. The linear responses are analytically derived in a periodic box under the local WKB approximation. Both the kinetic and Ohmic dissipations at the resonant frequencies are calculated, and the various parameters are investigated. Although magnetic pressure may be negligible compared to thermal pressure, the magnetic field can be important for the first-order perturbation, e.g., dynamical tides. It is found that the magnetic field splits the resonant frequency, namely the rotating hydrodynamic flow has only one resonant frequency, but the rotating MHD flow has two, one positive and the other negative. In the weak field regime the dissipations are asymmetric around the two resonant frequencies and this asymmetry is more striking with a weaker magnetic field. It is also found that both the kinetic and Ohmic dissipations at the resonant frequencies are inversely proportional to the Ekman number and the square of the wavenumber. The dissipation at the resonant frequency on small scales is almost equal to the dissipation at the non-resonant frequencies, namely the resonance takes its effect on the dissipation at intermediate length scales. Moreover, the waves with phase propagation that is perpendicular to the magnetic field are much more damped. It is also interesting to find that the frequency-averaged dissipation is constant. This result suggests that in compact objects, magnetic effects on tidal dissipation should be considered.

  10. Understanding the Dynamics of Socio-Hydrological Environment: a Conceptual Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woyessa, Y.; Welderufael, W.; Edossa, D.

    2011-12-01

    Human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threaten to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the change of ecosystems under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting land-use changes. Recently the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. A conceptual framework is being developed which integrates climate change scenarios and the human dimension of land use decision into a hydrological model in order to assess its impacts on the socio-hydrological dynamics of a river basin. The following figures present the framework for the analysis and modelling of the socio-hydrological dynamics. Keywords: climate change, land use, river basin

  11. Switching among graphic patterns is governed by oscillatory coordination dynamics: Implications for understanding handwriting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pier-Giorgio eZanone

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Revisiting an original idea by Hollerbach (1981, previous work has established that the production of graphic shapes, assumed to be the blueprint for handwriting, is governed by the dynamics of orthogonal non-linear coupled oscillators. Such dynamics determines few stable coordination patterns, giving rise to a limited set of preferred graphic shapes, namely, four lines and four ellipsoids independent of orientation. The present study investigates the rules of switching among such graphic coordination patterns. Seven participants were required to voluntarily switch within twelve pairs of shapes presented on a graphic tablet. In line with previous theoretical and experimental work on bimanual coordination, results corroborated our hypothesis that the relative stability of the produced coordination patterns determines the time needed for switching: the transition to a more stable pattern was shorter, and inversely. Moreover, switching between patterns with the same orientation but different eccentricities was faster than with a change in orientation. Nonetheless, the switching time covaried strictly with the change in relative phase effected by the transition between two shapes, whether this implied a change in eccentricity or in orientation. These findings suggest a new operational definition of what the (motor units or strokes of handwriting are and shed a novel light on how co-articulation and recruitment of degrees of freedom may occur in graphic skills. They also yield some leads for understanding the acquisition and the neural underpinnings of handwriting.

  12. Toward an improved understanding of the role of transpiration in critical zone dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, B.; Papuga, S. A.

    2012-12-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the total water balance across any ecosystem. In subalpine mixed-conifer ecosystems, transpiration (T) often dominates the total water flux and therefore improved understanding of T is critical for accurate assessment of catchment water balance and for understanding of the processes that governs the complex dynamics across critical zone (CZ). The interaction between T and plant vegetation not only modulates soil water balance but also influences water transit time and hydrochemical flux - key factors in our understanding of how the CZ evolves and responds. Unlike an eddy covariance system which provides only an integrated ET flux from an ecosystem, a sap flow system can provide an estimate of the T flux from the ecosystem. By isolating T, the ecohydrological drivers of this major water loss from the CZ can be identified. Still, the species composition of mixed-conifer ecosystems vary and the drivers of T associated with each species are expected to be different. Therefore, accurate quantification of T from a mixed-conifer requires knowledge of the unique transpiration dynamics of each of the tree species. Here, we installed a sap flow system within two mixed-conifer study sites of the Jemez River Basin - Santa Catalina Mountains Critical Zone Observatory (JRB - SCM CZO). At both sites, we identified the dominant tree species and installed sap flow sensors on healthy representatives for each of those species. At the JRB CZO site, sap sensors were installed in fir (4) and spruce (4) trees; at the SCM CZO site, sap sensors were installed at white fir (4) and maple (4) and one dead tree. Meteorological data as well as soil temperature (Ts) and soil moisture (θ) at multiple depths were also collected from each of the two sites. Preliminary analysis of two years of sap flux rate at JRB - SCM CZO shows that the environmental drivers of fir, spruce, and maple are different and also vary throughout the year. For JRB fir

  13. Understanding and estimating effective population size for practical application in marine species management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hare, Matthew P; Nunney, Leonard; Schwartz, Michael K; Ruzzante, Daniel E; Burford, Martha; Waples, Robin S; Ruegg, Kristen; Palstra, Friso

    2011-06-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) determines the strength of genetic drift in a population and has long been recognized as an important parameter for evaluating conservation status and threats to genetic health of populations. Specifically, an estimate of N(e) is crucial to management because it integrates genetic effects with the life history of the species, allowing for predictions of a population's current and future viability. Nevertheless, compared with ecological and demographic parameters, N(e) has had limited influence on species management, beyond its application in very small populations. Recent developments have substantially improved N(e) estimation; however, some obstacles remain for the practical application of N(e) estimates. For example, the need to define the spatial and temporal scale of measurement makes the concept complex and sometimes difficult to interpret. We reviewed approaches to estimation of N(e) over both long-term and contemporary time frames, clarifying their interpretations with respect to local populations and the global metapopulation. We describe multiple experimental factors affecting robustness of contemporary N(e) estimates and suggest that different sampling designs can be combined to compare largely independent measures of N(e) for improved confidence in the result. Large populations with moderate gene flow pose the greatest challenges to robust estimation of contemporary N(e) and require careful consideration of sampling and analysis to minimize estimator bias. We emphasize the practical utility of estimating N(e) by highlighting its relevance to the adaptive potential of a population and describing applications in management of marine populations, where the focus is not always on critically endangered populations. Two cases discussed include the mechanisms generating N(e) estimates many orders of magnitude lower than census N in harvested marine fishes and the predicted reduction in N(e) from hatchery-based population

  14. 'Wildlife 2001: Populations', an International Conference on Population Dynamics and Management of Vertebrates

    CERN Document Server

    Barrett, Reginald

    1992-01-01

    In 1984, a conference called Wildlife 2000: Modeling habitat relationships of terrestrial vertebrates, was held at Stanford Sierra Camp at Fallen Leaf Lake in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. The conference was well-received, and the published volume (Verner, J. , M. L. Morrison, and C. J. Ralph, editors. 1986. Wildlife 2000: modeling habitat relationships of terrestrial vertebrates, University of Wisconsin Press, Madison, Wisconsin, USA) proved to be a landmark publication that received a book award by The Wildlife Society. Wildlife 2001: populations was a followup conference with emphasis on the other major biological field of wildlife conservation and management, populations. It was held on July 29-31, 1991, at the Oakland Airport Hilton Hotel in Oakland, California, in accordance with our intent that this conference have a much stronger international representation than did Wildlife 2000. The goal of the conference was to bring together an international group of specialists to address the state ...

  15. Predation, Competition, and Abiotic Disturbance: Population Dynamics of Small Mammals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yunger, John A. [Northern Illinois U.

    1996-01-01

    Predation and food availability have been implicated in annual non-cyclic fluctuations of vertebrate prey at mid-latitudes. The timing and magnitude of these factors are unclear due to a lack of large-scale field experiments, little attention to interactions, and a failure to closely link vertebrate predators with their prey. From October 1992 to January 1996, small mammal populations were censused on eight 0.6 ha plots at monthly intervals in a 32-ha prairie restoration at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Illinois. Terrestrial vertebrate predators were excluded after July 1993 from four of the eight plots and canid diets monitored. Both terrestrial and avian vertebrate predators were excluded in March 1994. During 1993 small mammal densities (i.e., Microtus pennsylvanicus, Peromyscus leucopus, and P. maniculatus) were relatively high. Following peak densities in late summer, Microtus numbers were 2-3x greater on exclusion plots relative to controls due to preferential selection of Microtus by canids, as reflected in diets. Following an ice-storm and crash in small mammal numbers (particularly Microtus), vertebrate predator exclusion had no detectable effect on P. leucopus numbers, probably due to an abundance of alternative prey (i.e., Sylvilagus floridanus). Meadow vole numbers began to increase in Fall 1995, and a numerical effect of predator exclusion, similar to that in 1993, was observed. Predator exclusion had no detectable effect on the movements and spatial patterns of Microtus during 1993. There was a significant decrease in home range and a significant increase in home range overlap for £.. leucopus on the predator exclusion plots. The change in spatial behavior may be due to interspecific competition with Microtus resulting from increased densities on exclusion plots. Thus, predators had an indirect effect on .f.. leucopus spatial patterns mediated through M. pennsylvanicus. The role of food limitation was studied using natural and manipulative

  16. Predation, Competition, and Abiotic Disturbance: Population Dynamics of Small Mammals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yunger, John A.; /Northern Illinois U. /Northern Illinois U.

    1996-01-01

    Predation and food availability have been implicated in annual non-cyclic fluctuations of vertebrate prey at mid-latitudes. The timing and magnitude of these factors are unclear due to a lack of large-scale field experiments, little attention to interactions, and a failure to closely link vertebrate predators with their prey. From October 1992 to January 1996, small mammal populations were censused on eight 0.6 ha plots at monthly intervals in a 32-ha prairie restoration at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Illinois. Terrestrial vertebrate predators were excluded after July 1993 from four of the eight plots and canid diets monitored. Both terrestrial and avian vertebrate predators were excluded in March 1994. During 1993 small mammal densities (i.e., Microtus Pennsylvanicus, Peromyscus leucopus, and P. maniculatus) were relatively high. Following peak densities in late summer, Microtus numbers wer 2-3x greater on exclusion plots relative to controls due to preferential selection of Microtus by canids, as reflected in dits. Following an ice-storm and crash in small mammal numbers (particularly Microtus), vertebrate predator exclusion had no detectable effect on P. leucopus numbers, probably due to an abundance of alternative prey (i.e., Sylvilagus floridanus). Meadow vole numbers began to increase in Fall 1995, and a numerical effect of predator exclusion, similar to that in 1993, was observed. Predator exclusion had no detectable effect on the movements and spatial patterns of Microtus during 1993. There was a significant decrease in home range and a significant increase in home range overlap for P. leucopus on the predator exclusion plots. The change in spatial behavior may be due to interspecific competition with Microtus resulting from increased densities on exclusion plots. Thus, predators had an indirect effect on P. leucopus spatial patterns mediated through M. Pennsylvanicus. The role of food limitation was studied using natural and manipulative

  17. Boom or bust? A comparative analysis of transient population dynamics in plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Franco, Miguel; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    researchers as further possible effectors of complicated dynamics. Previously published methods of transient analysis have tended to require knowledge of initial population structure. However, this has been overcome by the recent development of the parametric Kreiss bound (which describes how large...... a population must become before reaching its maximum possible transient amplification following a disturbance) and the extension of this and other transient indices to simultaneously describe both amplified and attenuated transient dynamics. We apply the Kreiss bound and other transient indices to a data base...... worrying artefact of basic model parameterization. Synthesis. Transient indices describe how big or how small plant populations can get, en route to long-term stable rates of increase or decline. The patterns we found in the potential for transient dynamics, across many species of plants, suggest...

  18. Using dynamic stochastic modelling to estimate population risk factors in infectious disease: the example of FIV in 15 cat populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Fouchet

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. CONCLUSION: Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease.

  19. Prediction of population with Alzheimer's disease in the European Union using a system dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Cimler, Richard; Dolezal, Ondrej; Kuca, Kamil

    2016-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU) until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled. The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation. For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat. Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million. System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of these patients. With different input data, the simulation can be used also for the different regions as well as for different noncontagious disease predictions.

  20. Influence of habitat quality, population size, patch size, and connectivity on patch-occupancy dynamics of the middle spotted woodpecker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robles, Hugo; Ciudad, Carlos

    2012-04-01

    Despite extensive research on the effects of habitat fragmentation, the ecological mechanisms underlying colonization and extinction processes are poorly known, but knowledge of these mechanisms is essential to understanding the distribution and persistence of populations in fragmented habitats. We examined these mechanisms through multiseason occupancy models that elucidated patch-occupancy dynamics of Middle Spotted Woodpeckers (Dendrocopos medius) in northwestern Spain. The number of occupied patches was relatively stable from 2000 to 2010 (15-24% of 101 patches occupied every year) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Larger and higher quality patches (i.e., higher density of oaks >37 cm dbh [diameter at breast height]) were more likely to be occupied. Habitat quality (i.e., density of large oaks) explained more variation in patch colonization and extinction than did patch size and connectivity, which were both weakly associated with probabilities of turnover. Patches of higher quality were more likely to be colonized than patches of lower quality. Populations in high-quality patches were less likely to become extinct. In addition, extinction in a patch was strongly associated with local population size but not with patch size, which means the latter may not be a good surrogate of population size in assessments of extinction probability. Our results suggest that habitat quality may be a primary driver of patch-occupancy dynamics and may increase the accuracy of models of population survival. We encourage comparisons of competing models that assess occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in a single analytical framework (e.g., dynamic occupancy models) so as to shed light on the association of habitat quality and patch geometry with colonization and extinction processes in different settings and species. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. Ciliates and the rare biosphere-community ecology and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisse, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Application of deep sequencing technologies to environmental samples and some detailed morphological studies suggest that there is a vast, yet unexplored rare ciliate biosphere, tentatively defined in terms of operational taxonomic units. However, very few studies complemented molecular and phylogenetic data with morphological and ecological descriptions of the species inventory. This is mainly because the sampling effort increases strongly with decreasing species abundance. In spite of this limited knowledge, it is clear that species that are rare under certain environmental conditions (temporal rare biosphere) may become abundant when the physical, chemical, and biological variables of their habitat change. Furthermore, some species may always be present in low numbers if their dispersal rates are exceedingly high (accidental rare biosphere). An intriguing question is whether there are some species that are always rare, i.e., in every suitable environment. This permanent rare biosphere is conceptually different from the temporal rare biosphere. This review characterizes typical aquatic habitats of the rare ciliate biosphere, portrays different scenarios under which some or even many species may be permanently rare (background fauna), and identifies some fundamental questions that need to be addressed to achieve a better understanding of the population dynamics of the rare ciliate biosphere. © 2014 The Authors The Journal of Eukaryotic Microbiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society of Protistologists.

  2. An approach to understand incomplete fusion dynamics from recoil range distribution measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tali, Suhail A.; Kumar, Harish; Afzal Ansari, M.

    2016-01-01

    Britt and Quinton initially pointed out the incomplete fusion (ICF) signatures in the break-up of projectiles like 12 C, 14 N, and 16 O into α-clusters at ≈10 MeV/nucleon energies. Additional information was provided by Inamura et al. by performing the particle gamma coincidence experiment which significantly contributed in the understanding of ICF study. The interest to understand the ICF reaction dynamics for low Z projectiles (Z≤10) at energies ≈ 4-7MeV/nucleon has recently become an active area of research because of lack of any appropriate theoretical aspect, which may reproduce the experimental ICF data. At projectile energies above the Coulomb barrier, CF and ICF are dominant and competing reaction modes. For the imparted angular momentum ℓ < ℓ crit , the attractive nuclear potential is dominant, which may lead to the complete amalgamation of projectile with the target nucleus. However, for angular momentum ℓ> L crit , the projectile breaks into two parts one of them may fuse with the target nucleus, while the remainder moves as a spectator in forward direction with nearly the same velocity as that of incident projectile. The less excited composite system thus formed carries lower Forward Linear Momentum Transfer (FLMT) due to partial mass transferring from projectiles to the target nucleus compared to the compound nucleus formed via CF process

  3. General description and understanding of the nonlinear dynamics of mode-locked fiber lasers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Huai; Li, Bin; Shi, Wei; Zhu, Xiushan; Norwood, Robert A; Peyghambarian, Nasser; Jian, Shuisheng

    2017-05-02

    As a type of nonlinear system with complexity, mode-locked fiber lasers are known for their complex behaviour. It is a challenging task to understand the fundamental physics behind such complex behaviour, and a unified description for the nonlinear behaviour and the systematic and quantitative analysis of the underlying mechanisms of these lasers have not been developed. Here, we present a complexity science-based theoretical framework for understanding the behaviour of mode-locked fiber lasers by going beyond reductionism. This hierarchically structured framework provides a model with variable dimensionality, resulting in a simple view that can be used to systematically describe complex states. Moreover, research into the attractors' basins reveals the origin of stochasticity, hysteresis and multistability in these systems and presents a new method for quantitative analysis of these nonlinear phenomena. These findings pave the way for dynamics analysis and system designs of mode-locked fiber lasers. We expect that this paradigm will also enable potential applications in diverse research fields related to complex nonlinear phenomena.

  4. Understanding Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics from 1976 to 2014 in Yellow River Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baolei Zhang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Long-term intensive land use/cover changes (LUCCs of the Yellow River Delta (YRD have been happening since the 1960s. The land use patterns of the LUCCs are crucial for bio-diversity conservation and/or sustainable development. This study quantified patterns of the LUCCs, explored the systematic transitions, and identified wetland change trajectory for the period 1976–2014 in the YRD. Landsat imageries of 1976, 1984, 1995, 2006, and 2014 were used to derive nine land use classes. Post classification change detection analysis based on enhanced transition matrix was applied to identify land use dynamics and trajectory of wetland change. The five cartographic outputs for changes in land use underlined major decreases in natural wetland areas and increases in artificial wetland and non-wetland, especially aquafarms, salt pans and construction lands. The systematic transitions in the YRD were wetland degradation, wetland artificialization, and urbanization. Wetland change trajectory results demonstrated that the main wetland changes were wetland degradation and wetland artificialization. Coastline change is the subordinate reason for natural wetland degradation in comparison with human activities. The results of this study allowed for an improvement in the understanding of the LUCC processes and enabled researchers and planners to focus on the most important signals of systematic landscape transitions while also allowing for a better understanding of the proximate causes of changes.

  5. Behaviour as a Lever of Ecological Transition? Understanding and Acting on Individual Behaviour and Collective Dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Solange; Gaspard, Albane

    2017-01-01

    Beyond broad policy declarations, the implementation of ecological transition - which consists mainly in curbing consumption of energy and raw materials in our societies - requires substantial behavioural change at the collective, but also, quite obviously, the individual level. Yet, though there is general consensus around the principle of embarking on the path to transition, things get more complicated when it comes to changing our practices and habits. Can we act on individual behaviour and collective dynamics in respect of this particular aim of ecological transition, and, if so, how are we to go about it? Solange Martin and Albane Gaspard have examined this question for the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME) and offer us the fruit of their labours here. They show, for example, how the social and human sciences help to understand behaviour both at the individual level and in its collective dimensions, and they outline different possible lines of action to modify it. But, given the entanglement between various levels, it is essential, if we are to act effectively on behaviour, to combine approaches, tools and actors, and to analyse and understand social practices thoroughly before implementing political projects or measures

  6. Understanding Lithium Solvation and Diffusion through Topological Analysis of First-Principles Molecular Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatia, Harsh [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Gyulassy, Attila [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ong, Mitchell [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lordi, Vincenzo [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Draeger, Erik [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pask, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pascucci, Valerio [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bremer, Peer -Timo [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-09-27

    The performance of lithium-ion batteries is strongly influenced by the ionic conductivity of the electrolyte, which depends on the speed at which Li ions migrate across the cell and relates to their solvation structure. The choice of solvent can greatly impact, both, the solvation and diffusivity of Li ions. In this work, we present our application of the topological techniques to extract and predict such behavior in the data generated by the first-principles molecular dynamics simulation of Li ions in an important organic solvent -ethylene carbonate. More specifically, we use the scalar topology of the electron charge density field to analyze the evolution of the solvation structures. This allows us to derive a parameter-free bond definition for lithium-oxygen bonds, to provide a quantitative measure for bond strength, and to understand the regions of influence of each atom in the simulation. This has provided new insights into how and under what conditions certain bonds may form and break. As a result, we can identify and, more importantly, predict, unstable configurations in solvation structures. This can be very useful in understanding when small changes to the atoms' movements can cause significantly different bond structures to evolve. Ultimately, this promises to allow scientists to explore lithium ion solvation and diffusion more systematically, with the aim of new insights and potentially accelerating the calculations themselves.

  7. The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

  8. Dynamics of weakly inhomogeneous oscillator populations: perturbation theory on top of Watanabe-Strogatz integrability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady

    2016-08-01

    As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations.

  9. Dynamics of weakly inhomogeneous oscillator populations: perturbation theory on top of Watanabe–Strogatz integrability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady

    2016-01-01

    As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations. (letter)

  10. The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

  11. Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of seagrass landscapes using time-series remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Mitchell B.; Roelfsema, Chris M.; Phinn, Stuart R.

    2013-03-01

    The spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrasses have been well studied at the leaf to patch scales, however, the link to large spatial extent landscape and population dynamics is still unresolved in seagrass ecology. Traditional remote sensing approaches have lacked the temporal resolution and consistency to appropriately address this issue. This study uses two high temporal resolution time-series of thematic seagrass cover maps to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrass at both an inter- and intra-annual time scales, one of the first globally to do so at this scale. Previous work by the authors developed an object-based approach to map seagrass cover level distribution from a long term archive of Landsat TM and ETM+ images on the Eastern Banks (≈200 km2), Moreton Bay, Australia. In this work a range of trend and time-series analysis methods are demonstrated for a time-series of 23 annual maps from 1988 to 2010 and a time-series of 16 monthly maps during 2008-2010. Significant new insight was presented regarding the inter- and intra-annual dynamics of seagrass persistence over time, seagrass cover level variability, seagrass cover level trajectory, and change in area of seagrass and cover levels over time. Overall we found that there was no significant decline in total seagrass area on the Eastern Banks, but there was a significant decline in seagrass cover level condition. A case study of two smaller communities within the Eastern Banks that experienced a decline in both overall seagrass area and condition are examined in detail, highlighting possible differences in environmental and process drivers. We demonstrate how trend and time-series analysis enabled seagrass distribution to be appropriately assessed in context of its spatial and temporal history and provides the ability to not only quantify change, but also describe the type of change. We also demonstrate the potential use of time-series analysis products to investigate seagrass growth and

  12. Molecular dynamics as a method to gain understanding in questions concerning montmorillonite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seppaelae, A.; Vaari, J.; Puhakka, E.; Tanhua-Tyrkkoe, M.; Olin, M.; Kasa, S.

    2012-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. Bentonite is one of the main material components to be used in the KBS-3 concept for safe disposal of spent nuclear fuel. The functional material in bentonite giving its beneficial properties is montmorillonite mineral. Montmorillonite consists of two completely different components: one nano-metre thick and approximately 200-400 nano-metres wide mineral layers carrying constant charge and charge compensating cations very near the mineral surfaces. The first component is more of a passive component while the second can absorb water molecules and change the cationic composition. In addition to montmorillonite bentonite usually contains some salts dissolved into water and accessory minerals. Any bulk bentonite is formed from these components via many scales of which structure is not yet fully known to science. Therefore the beneficial macroscopic properties of bentonite are assumed to follow from the nano-level structure and reactions. In safety studies of spent fuel disposal the time span to be considered extends beyond a hundred thousand years making any straightforward experimenting impossible. However, by modelling it is possible to study even very long periods of time. Unfortunately the model data and reactions are at least implicitly based on our short term experiments and may therefore be biased in some way. One possible solution to this may be the application of molecular chemistry or dynamics to construct the basis for our modelling studies. We have applied molecular chemistry on surface properties of kaolinite clay and biotite mineral but molecular dynamics is a new type of modelling for us. We believe that (during the coming ten years) molecular dynamics could make it easier to understand for example the following topics: How do charge compensating (exchanged) and aqueous cations interact? Why does water expand montmorillonite during wetting? Exact mechanism? How does water leave montmorillonite during

  13. Studies on the population dynamics of a rumor-spreading model in online social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Suyalatu; Fan, Feng-Hua; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2018-02-01

    This paper sets up a rumor spreading model in online social networks based on the European fox rabies SIR model. The model considers the impact of changing number of online social network users, combines the transmission dynamics to set up a population dynamics of rumor spreading model in online social networks. Simulation is carried out on online social network, and results show that the new rumor spreading model is in accordance with the real propagation characteristics in online social networks.

  14. Generalization of the Rabi population inversion dynamics in the sub-one-cycle pulse limit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doslic, N.

    2006-01-01

    We consider the population inversion in a two-level system generated by a sub-one-cycle pulse excitation. Specifically, we explore the effect that the time derivative of the pulse envelope has on the Rabi dynamics. Our analysis is based on a combination of analytical, perturbative, and nonperturbative treatments and is complemented by numerical simulations. We find a shortening of the Rabi inversion period and show that complete inversion is unobtainable under resonant, ultrashort pulse conditions. The impact of nonresonant and carrier-envelope phase-dependent effects on the dynamics of two-level and multilevel systems is studied numerically, and conditions for complete population inversion are derived

  15. Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Bressloff, Paul C.

    2010-11-03

    We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand, for finite N the dynamics is described by a master equation that determines the probability of spiking activity within each population. We first consider a single excitatory population that exhibits bistability in the deterministic limit. The steady-state probability distribution of the stochastic network has maxima at points corresponding to the stable fixed points of the deterministic network; the relative weighting of the two maxima depends on the system size. For large but finite N, we calculate the exponentially small rate of noise-induced transitions between the resulting metastable states using a Wentzel-Kramers- Brillouin (WKB) approximation and matched asymptotic expansions. We then consider a two-population excitatory or inhibitory network that supports limit cycle oscillations. Using a diffusion approximation, we reduce the dynamics to a neural Langevin equation, and show how the intrinsic noise amplifies subthreshold oscillations (quasicycles). © 2010 The American Physical Society.

  16. The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan; Bengstsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly...... important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models...... to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses...

  17. Collective dynamics of populations of weakly correlated filaments of incoherent white light

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Jinxin; Sheridan, John T; Saravanamuttu, Kalaichelvi

    2013-01-01

    We examined the dynamics of two populations of self-trapped filaments of spatially and temporally incoherent white light. The populations consisted of (i) independent filaments generated through self-trapping of incandescent speckles, and (ii) co-dependent filaments created through modulation instability of a broad incandescent beam. Both filament populations were positionally stable in conditions where individual pairs of self-trapped beams interact strongly. Both also acquired significantly broad intensity distributions, which were independent of their parent optical fields; a small but persistent number of high-intensity filaments was identified in both cases. These studies provide accessible routes to weakly correlated ensembles, insight into their collective behaviour such as self-stabilization and self-selected intensity distributions, and reveal intriguing similarities between the dynamics of two populations of different origins. (paper)

  18. Life history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations

    OpenAIRE

    Laver, Rj; Purwandana, D; Ariefiandy, A; Imansyah, J; Forsyth, D; Ciofi, C; Jessop, Ts

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture st...

  19. A model of population dynamics of TB in a prison system and application to South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Witbooi, Peter; Vyambwera, Sibaliwe Maku

    2017-01-01

    Background Tuberculosis (TB) continues to spread in South African prisons in particular, as prisons are over-capacitated and have poor ventilation. The awaiting trial detainees are not screened on admission and are at high risk of getting infected with TB. Results We propose a compartmental model to describe the population dynamics of TB disease in prisons. Our model considers the inflow of susceptible, exposed and TB infectives into the prison population. Removal of individuals out of the pr...

  20. Nonlinearities Lead to Qualitative Differences in Population Dynamics of Predator-Prey Systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ameixa, Olga; Messelink, G. J.; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 4 (2013), e62530-e62530 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA ČR(CZ) GEVOL/11/E036 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : nonlinear system * population density * population dynamics * predator * predator prey interaction * qualitative analysis Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.534, year: 2013